STOP Shorting This Market This Is Why 90% of Traders Are Getting Cooked?-MP3

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• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 1:47Speaker 04

  Pushing to highs.

• 1:49Speaker 03

  Yeah. People getting squeezed out of those positions. Nasdaq at an all-time high today.

• 1:52Speaker 04

  Getting cooked.

• 1:54Speaker 03

  S and P is not far from it. Dow is not far from it. If you're just looking at trajectory, I mean, you would know. But that's something that people don't, you know, they see it like, hey, it's hitting all-time high. It has to pull back at some point. And yeah, eventually it will. But look at the trend line before you make that decision.

• 2:11Speaker 04

  Look at how much money is just pouring in from 401Ks. Like, in order to short Nasdaq and the Dow and ES, Nikkei, Kospi, you're telling me that the trillions of dollars that are being pumped in the 401Ks and money market funds and like, you're trading the direction wrong. Go with the predominant direction. Look at the month chart first.

• 2:33Speaker 03

  Hey, tell them that company. Tell them the company. Yeah, why don't you do that?

• 2:40Speaker 04

  Stay tuned.

• 2:41Speaker 03

  I didn't like it. I didn't like it either. I didn't like the company either.

• 2:43Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:45Speaker 05

  But I will say this, though. It is good to have multiple different, cuz I spoke to Troy about this as well, especially with the options. You gotta have multiple things working for you at the same time. If you put all your eggs in one basket and that goes south, which any option trade can go south, then you're screwed.

• 3:05Speaker 04

  You get a better basket.

• 3:07Speaker 05

  But that's what I'm saying. You gotta have multiple, but you gotta have multiple options working for you, though.

• 3:12Speaker 03

  What you saying, like, multiple positions?

• 3:13Speaker 05

  Multiple calls.

• 3:14Speaker 03

  Yeah. Can I just add a caveat? Cuz I agree with you. In the same company or not in the same company?

• 3:20Speaker 05

  Not in the same company.

• 3:22Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 3:23Speaker 05

  Now, everybody's budget doesn't afford them to do that.

• 3:27Speaker 05

  I understand that. But I'm just saying, you give yourself greater chance of winning the more positions. That doesn't mean you have to have a million positions. But if you just put, all right, if you have $50,000 and you're saying, okay, if I can get a green jacket and I'm gonna put $50,000 on one option call with the anticipation that that $50,000 is gonna turn into $500,000. That's, that, to me

• 3:58Speaker 03

  That's dangerous.

• 3:59Speaker 05

  is ill-advised.

• 4:00Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 4:01Speaker 04

  Especially if you don't have incredible acumen. Like, we even talked about this one, like, the five serve call. He's like, hey, I got in, in the stock 169.

• 4:12Speaker 04

  You think my January calls are cooked? I'm like, the company's cooked.

• 4:17Speaker 04

  Like, to your point, if he would've did, uh, Google, Microsoft, Micron, and spread the risk out, he wouldn't have had as much, cuz we all have met people when they approach you and they ask about the portfolio. You can feel the fear that's coming out of their energy, right? You have to diversify, same with two tech, two index, and same with futures. That's why I say trade ES, Nasdaq, Dow, and the bond market.

• 4:42Speaker 05

  Well, because also what happens is when you have a company, a trade that goes well, you said I should've put more money in.

• 4:51Speaker 03

  Always.

• 4:52Speaker 05

  So then the next time around, you up your limit. It's like being at the table in Vegas. So now, you was playing at the 5,000 or 10,000 table. Now you're playing at the 20,000 table. And so you up your limit on the amount of money that you start putting in. And you gotta be careful with that too, because now your strategy has changed. And you're going in with the anticipation that I learned my lesson last time because I made 500%. But I only put $5,000 in. This time I'm gonna put $15,000 in. And then when you put the $15,000 in, you're down 79% in two weeks. So you gotta be disciplined with that too.

• 5:33Speaker 05

  Because once you start to say, okay, now I'm gonna put larger sums of money in because of that, it doesn't always work out in your favor.

• 5:42Speaker 03

  Yeah, that's why you gotta be super strategic. So based on that, it's like, it starts with the one, right? So let's just take Micron when we did this in 2024. It started with one contract. Most people didn't even believe in that contract. And it was like, okay, we pulled back. We started at 110. First call was at 110. Dropped down to 83. We were down 60%. And I said, we're not moving. In fact, as it creeps back up, we're gonna let it pass the threshold. If that 110 call now goes up 50%, I think we're gonna have a nice run, right? So then you add to that, right? So like, when I'm talking about when I stack them, and sometimes you'll see like these posts or in my stories, it'll be like, hey, how do you get all these calls? Well, it started hitting thresholds and I'm watching the trend, right? So it clears 200, now we're looking for 215. Oh, and it just keeps going up to the point now where, you know, we were at 1100.

• 6:27Speaker 03

  In June, we were at 1200. But people are looking at, and they say, wait, he's in a 230 call? Well, we got the 230 call when it was sitting at 170. You feel what I mean?

• 6:34Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 6:35Speaker 03

  So you, that's why I wanted to make it to distinguish between are you doing it in the same company or are you doing it in a multiple? So first get the foundation. I always stress to people, foundation, foundation, foundation, whether that's in ETFs or whether that's in indexes. And then, then have some individual equities inside that foundation. Then you can maybe get to derivatives, right? But you don't wanna skip steps. If you got $50,000, if that's your only $50,000, that's, I mean, obviously, that's really ill-advised. But if you start to see an uptrend like we saw in the memory space, like we saw in the computer space. Earners, what's up? Look, if you run a small business, you know how important it is to stay on top of your numbers. That's why I wanna tell you about Xero.

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• 11:03Speaker 03

  Like we've now seen in energy, like we're seeing in a lot of the infrastructure. Then there's an opportunity to say, okay, well, we've made it 500%. Can we now get another call to add to that? So we're just adding to the ladder and really that's how we get our stacks.

• 11:17Speaker 04

  And it's a really great lesson that you brought up. You kind of skimmed over it, but to add to your winners and not your losers. Like, cuz you're really essentially buying momentum. Like same with Nvidia around that 212 mark. When everyone said, oh, I don't know if Nvidia is gonna give any more higher returns. Now it's sitting at, well, hit the high 240. Add to your winners and stop trying to add to your losers to bring down your negative cost basis. If a lot more traders did that, you would be, especially in the futures market, you would be better off.

• 11:48Speaker 03

  Yeah, and I had a guy try to convert me on Saturday afternoon. He said, yo, I'm in Red Panda Detroit. I love the way you researched, man. Yo, you could really do futures. I say, yo, that's not my discipline, bro. I say, Ian the best in the game. Let him do that.

• 12:05Speaker 04

  Yeah, it's the same. People ask me all the time, why don't you do options? I'm like, once you master something, you can give up a lot of your edge and your primary thing going to another asset. Even though like the charts are the same and the risk is the same. Sometimes the best thing to do is just stay dominant at the thing you're best at. Yeah. Kudos to you who can do both, but very few people do both well.

• 12:27Speaker 03

  Yeah, stay tuned, who knows?

• 12:29Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 12:30Speaker 05

  What do you feel about adding water technology companies to a portfolio?

• 12:35Speaker 04

  I know, it's stupid. Me shorting the point, like, I'm gonna be honest.

• 12:43Speaker 04

  No, I brought up CGW. I brought up the stock in 2020. I know a lot of people have talked about it in remixes since then. I appreciate the question, but I think sometimes we end up searching down the rabbit hole so much for the new thing that we end up missing on the sector that matters. I'm gonna be very honest, the only thing that matters right now is tech. Everything that's doing well is the tech or tech derivative. There's no reason to even add this to look at this at a portfolio at all.

• 13:13Speaker 03

  I try to give the benefit of the doubt here and just say, okay, well, where is this question? Where is the origin of it? Where, like, where did you derive or get to that point? And I started thinking this, and maybe this is the thought process. People keep hearing that, number one, clean water is important. You know, there's a lack thereof. Water is gonna be, I mean, it is a natural resource. But they keep hearing data centers and the amount of water that's being used. And so maybe people were thinking, hey, maybe I should find companies that are building infrastructure to make sure that we have and house water in the event that there is a shortage because of the buildout of AI. I'm not sure that's what they were thinking, but that's what I'm like.

• 13:56Speaker 04

  Maybe that was a thought, but like, it's the wrong sector. If we're gonna be honest, it's the wrong, even when people like, okay, well, AI is destroying water infrastructure and the... They've switched from that. A lot of that stuff is propaganda. The ticker he's talking about is XLY. The high last year was 15427, it's currently a 102. When I, you know, you gotta look at the mode, the profit margin, like, and once again, I shouldn't be able to name 55 companies off the top of my head that are dramatically better. I don't even think they're the best in the category. Um, so no.

• 14:38Speaker 03

  Yeah, I don't, I haven't diversified to that point. I don't have anything in that.

• 14:42Speaker 04

  Over diversification is a mistake too.

• 14:44Speaker 03

  Yeah, it's tech, it's tech for me, for sure. I think you're 100% spot on, it's tech, and it's gonna be tech for...

• 14:51Speaker 05

  Well, you can have tech and water and they go, they can go hand in hand.

• 14:54Speaker 03

  That's, yes, and that's why I'm trying to add the tech component. Maybe they're thinking from the AI infrastructure. I'm thinking the AI infrastructure is going to be the leader and the catalyst for the next five, 10 years. If waters...

• 15:06Speaker 05

  There's so many different things that tech comes in play when it comes to water. If you really think about it, that's actually the first water. The first type of tech is water. When irrigation systems came, that was ancient Egypt. That's actually a form of technology. As far as turning salt water into drinkable water, Israel has, they have tanks, they have whole factories where they're doing this. They've done that for a long time. And that's a form of technology for sure. You talk about data centers, you talk about water purification. So the natural resources and technology do go hand in hand, especially when it comes to water. Because this water issue has such, is such a big deal right now, so.

• 15:44Speaker 03

  Is it investable?

• 15:45Speaker 05

  Well, I would, that's two totally different conversations.

• 15:47Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 15:47Speaker 05

  But it, but it is, the, the, the tech, I think tech and water, they definitely go hand in hand. Even the purification of water is tech.

• 15:56Speaker 03

  Well, that's what I'm saying. I think you're saying the same thing, right? And we've said this over and over repeatedly on this show for sure, that if your business doesn't have a tech component, then do you have a business? Right? So I think that has to be aligned. In fact, it's gonna be, if it doesn't have an AI component in it, are you going to have a true growth company?

• 16:17Speaker 05

  Well, that's the thing I think we really gotta focus on is subsectors of tech. Because at some point, saying tech is, is not even gonna be relevant because everything is a tech company. So now we gotta say, okay, what's the subsector of tech? Whether it's chips, whether it's security, like, because we're gonna get to a point where...

• 16:35Speaker 03

  Well, we've done it.

• 16:36Speaker 05

  No, no, no, but I'm just saying, when people say invest in tech, well, everything is gonna be tech. Everything is almost tech now.

• 16:42Speaker 04

  Nike is in tech?

• 16:44Speaker 05

  Almost, almost.

• 16:45Speaker 03

  Now they try.

• 16:46Speaker 05

  They had the NFT, they had the...

• 16:48Speaker 03

  Yeah, did you see that on the worst investments of all time?

• 16:50Speaker 04

  Stupid. What's gonna verify the legitimacy of the shoe? What? Is it, that's the best idea? There was, before this collapse happened, shout to body, everybody in Oregon. There were signs of idiocracy coming out in those ideas that they weren't gonna land well. So I get it, but even in the tech sectors, there's hierarchy and information tech that matters. A lot, and some of them, it's like the companies who say they're AI adjacent and they're not. It's like they're trying to gamify the gains. And my bigger point, I don't want people to overthink what to invest in. And like, if we take this ticker XLY off the top of my head, I could just go through banking

• 17:35Speaker 04

  and fintech and pick a bunch of better companies. So the answer for this is no.

• 17:41Speaker 03

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