IRBM's shot into Ukraine by Russia & the Information War | EYES ON PODCAST

Today we talk about the IRBM's shot into Ukraine from Russia, what a peace deal would actually look like and whether the Ukrainians would actually go for it. We also touch on the ongoing information war happening Subscribe to the new EYES ON YouTube channel.⬇️ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJytcQbSOEKLGyhNwkqpd3A Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Find Jason here ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_app Find Andy Milburn here:⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 https://amilburn.substack.com/ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Find Mick Mulroy here:⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ https://x.com/MickMulroy?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ #irbm #putin #russiaukrainewar Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:28Speaker 01

  Hello, everyone. Welcome to another episode of Eyes On. I'm Andy Mulvaney.

• 0:32Speaker 02

  I'm Jason Lyons.

• 0:34Speaker 03

  I'm Demetri Kuntakos.

• 0:37Speaker 01

  The over to you for today's topics.

• 0:39Speaker 03

  All right, yeah, so things have been popping off for the most part. Ukraine mostly, I mean, obviously what's going on in the Middle East too is, you know, not to take anything away from that. It's obviously a serious, serious situation, but over the last week, we've seen the US give the okay to use attackums, UK give okay to use storm shadows, the French, okay, the scalp, there's talk about the Taurus missile with Germany.

• 1:07Speaker 03

  And they've, and the Ukrainians have been hitting inside of Russia. It's been mostly in Kursk, but there have been times where they hit outside of Kursk, more deeper into Russia. And the Russians came back using IRBMs in Ukraine. I guess saber rattling, obviously they weren't nuclear and stuff like that. There was a lot of like, a lot of confusion, I guess, like everyone was talking about ICBMs, they, I mean, they aren't, are worried. And what this means, obviously, what does it mean for escalation? Is it everyone, is it a move to, for negotiation, obviously, like what happens now?

• 1:50Speaker 03

  And like, I think it dovetails into like, there's obviously a push from the Biden administration to get all the aid to Ukraine before inauguration. And it's being seen by some people as an unnecessary escalation.

• 2:06Speaker 03

  Seeing what Russia has done to react to it. So that's what's really popping in my brain. Right now.

• 2:12Speaker 01

  Yeah, I and I was tracking, I was tracking a conversation, obviously, on the last podcast with with the Jack. I'm so happy. Observer that. So I know that you know, you laid laid the basis for a really good discussion on this. I just, you know, for the benefit of listeners who may not be up on on on tactical weapons. I had tactic, sorry, tactical ballistic missile systems. The attack ends attack ends is it's a it's a tactical supersonic missile. And when we talk about range.

• 2:51Speaker 01

  There's basically two blocks that we're talking about and and the attack ends block that that is an issue is the one that ranges about one hundred and ninety miles, which is three hundred kilometers. And the Secretary of Defense, you know, in the current Secretary of Defense about a month ago said, hey, there's no point providing them because there aren't any significant topic. Targets within that range of the of Ukrainian positions, which is actually incorrect. There's some. By Ukrainian estimates, two hundred such targets. But most of them are in Russia, and that's the issue that if we tie, you know, when we were tying use of these. Systems to not being used in Russia, it kind of made no sense.

• 3:38Speaker 01

  Now, you know, and I'm just laying this laying the stage for why people worried about escalation. So originally. Of the coming out of the administration when the decision was finally made. And as you know, I think this decision is. I think it's not, I think it's timely, but I think it's way overdue because we have drip fed. Capabilities to the Ukrainians and allow the Russians to adapt. And in any case, you know, we said, the administration said that originally. That these systems, when they could be used in Russia, they could only be used in the Kursk region. And then, you know, the rationale for that was because the Russians had escalated there by bringing in ten thousand Koreans. However.

• 4:21Speaker 01

  Five, what day, where, where are we now, like the twenty fourth? So, five days ago, uh, they, the attack guns were used to hit a, a giant logistics support center, um, near a place called Kerichev in Briensk, which is a, a oblast, uh, adjacent to Ukraine, but Kerichev is deep in Russia, and it's nowhere near, uh, curse. So it looks like, uh, if, if, we, we may have said that, but we're already, uh, violating it. Um, and then, a day later, the Brits used twenty Storm Shadow missiles to hit targets within Russia, and the French have announced that they're gonna use their

• 5:02Speaker 01

  Scalp missiles, which are essentially the same as Storm Shadow, but they've got to give it a different name, so as not to, you know, show that they are, uh, that they're a, uh, they're a prodigy of, uh, of, uh, of the US or the UK. And the French announced that they're gonna use Scalp missiles, and then, uh, the big question now is whether the Germans are gonna use Taurus, which is similar, uh, long-range missile into Russia. Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, said about a month ago they wouldn't, but there seems to be a tremendous amount of public opinion. Um, and certainly, this is a big issue in Europe. It's interesting that for tho- that European countries, obviously closer to

• 5:43Speaker 01

  fallout from, uh, escalation, especially when we're talking about tactical nukes, are, uh, at least Britain, France, and, and population in Germany, Baltics, Poland, are strident supporters of hitting Russia itself. Uh, you know, I mean, this is, this is, from that perspective, Ukraine's in total warfighting, a, a war of self-defense, and you don't limit yourself, right, when it, when it comes to that, neither, you know, we're either in or out, we either provide- Ukraine with weapons that take lives lethal weaponry, or we don't. If we do, then it doesn't make any sense, right, to to put limits on it. Now, D to your point, yeah. A ballistic missile, I mean, a

• 6:30Speaker 01

  a missile that is that is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead is probably the best, simplest way of describing it hit in April last week. But, you know, this likely was just for show. When you look at the the hundreds of tons of high explosive crashing into Ukrainian cities every month, you know, this was this was a pinprick and it was a demonstration, I think. That talk about nuclear escalation, I don't think, I mean, I I don't know, but I believe strongly that talking nuclear escalation is is absolutely, it's in fantasy land. Every time, every time

• 7:13Speaker 01

  that the US or NATO has provided Ukraine with a new weapon system, Putin has banged the nuclear drum. He's not going to do it. He backs down every time that that someone calls his bluff. The Turks were the first to discover this back in 2015. When Erdogan said, if you fly any more of your planes over our positions in Syria, we will shoot them down. And sure enough, the Turks did. And Putin backpedaled and no more Russian planes flew over Turkish positions. I mean, you've got to read the man, right? All this all this hysterical

• 7:53Speaker 01

  fear in in Western media about the Third World War of being upon us is so much bump. But let me, let me just say one thing on that. In a sense, this is a global conflict, right? Because when we talk about escalation, the Russians already have already escalated this. And and so what we're likely to see is more of the same. They've escalated it by providing the Houthis targeting data. That's a that's a step against a global stability of Ever there was one, right? They've escalated by conducting sabotage, kinetic sabotage, attempted murder and murder all the way across Europe.

• 8:35Speaker 01

  They're likely to step up that maybe, but you know, it's whatever they do, they will have decided to do previously. Those are the things that we should be keeping our eye on. And I know you you covered the cutting of the two.

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• 10:19Speaker 01

  Fiber optic cables in the Baltic Sea last last episode, and I'd like to point out the Russian, the Chinese ship that did that left from a Russian port. So, yeah, we're likely to see more of that, but but they, but the Russians have planned to do that anyway, so.

• 10:41Speaker 01

  My feeling is, hey, we need to go all out because Ukraine is in trouble. I mean, despite all of our, some of our optimistic proclamations and even up to the last month, the Russians continue to advance in Donbass. They haven't taken Pokrovsk yet, but DS sent you a couple of maps that maybe you can post in the chat, but they are certainly closing on Pokrovsk and beyond Pokrovsk is Krematorsk, which is the last major city that has not yet fallen into Russian hands.

• 11:23Speaker 01

  And I think, though, more importantly, and more dangerously for the Ukrainians, are the fact that they are running out of air defense systems and the Russians continuing to hit their cities heavily. Friends of mine, you know, reporting from Kiev, saying that they're, you know, even in areas that are normally well-covered, that they're now every night, you know, feeling their buildings shake from strikes, drones, as well as missiles, electricity being cut out for most of the day, which is a big issue there as winter approaches. That is, that is, you know, a big concern.

• 12:03Speaker 01

  And the second one is that Ukrainian units across the board are very much under strength. You know, the Russians may have lost 600,000 men by British estimates since the beginning of the war, 57,000 from the beginning of the year, but they can sustain those kinds of losses and the Russian economy can sustain war footing for longer than the Ukrainians have. And that is, you know, that is the real issue, so. You know, my mind, forget about our ridiculous fear of escalation. You know, it's we when it's nabby panby hand wringing is playing right into Putin's hands, just like trying to appease Hitler did in

• 12:45Speaker 01

  the thirties. We should be providing Ukrainians with everything. Bring the war home to Russia. Really put him on the ropes. Make make him make the Russian people understand. I'm not talking about civilian casualties. I'm saying, but they should be they should hear Russian targets being hit, right? Close absolutely within the homeland. And that is essential, especially if we are looking towards the coming administration trying to impose a negotiated solution.

• 13:17Speaker 03

  Yeah. And I mean, I think a big part of this whole thing is like the information warfare, right? And I think just using those IRBMs. It it has like, you know, activated whoever, you know, the people on Twitter and like people generally who don't follow this as closely as you do, or most people who are really interested in this do or are affected by this do.

• 13:39Speaker 03

  And they're winning it. They're winning it because like the US. Whatever you want to call it, like the people on Twitter or the news, they like this stuff like I I'm I'm not.

• 13:52Speaker 01

  Yeah, sure.

• 13:53Speaker 03

  I'm the same way because like even this show, right? To be completely transparent, like in my head, I'm like, oh, how do we get the most views to talk about this? Because we actually talk about it in depth, the nuances, the actual context of what's going on. But I'm going to make a thumbnail that says like Putin, World War Three, you know what I mean? Like, I'm going to try and do the same thing.

• 14:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 14:13Speaker 03

  And in a like, in an attempt to actually like educate people on what's really going on. But at the same time, I'm also part of that.

• 14:21Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, I totally understand. Of course, no one wants a nuclear war. But look, World War Three or Global War is kind of already taking place, right? And I mean, Russia is one of the one that's making this war global. But because Putin knows that. You know, everyone's scared of of of the nuclear threat because Putin, you know, memories of the Cold War and mutually assured destruction are still very much forefront in his mind in the good old days of the USSR. That is why he keeps talking about it. But he knows, he know, I mean, he was part of the the regime that understood mutually mutually assured destruction, right? I mean, USSR kept to the rules, as did we. You know,

• 15:06Speaker 01

  Russia does not want nuclear war any more than the United States. Sure. And why? And why should it? Because there are other ways that it can hurt and continually erode the global, you know, global order, like the in in the ways that I've already described. I mean, the sabotage campaign, assassinations, disinformation, undermining political processes throughout Europe. These have proven to be really successful for him before. Nuclear war is not going to be a good story for him, his administration, as well as for the rest of the world. He knows that. And by the way, you know, so what he does is he postures because that because because everyone's mindset, right? The average

• 15:49Speaker 01

  person's mindset is 30 seconds of news and they and they draw conclusions from that. So as soon as you say nuclear, oh, my God, the Dnipro was hit by an intercontinental range ballistic missile, ICBM. Okay, first time such a missile has been used in combat anywhere. Right? Even if that's true, it was a conventional warhead and it was a one-off, right? And now, I mean, if if a nuclear event was going to happen, I don't think it's going to be a tactical nuke on the battlefield. By the way, tactical nuke may sound kind of contained, but it really isn't. Tactical nuke is going to result in tens of thousands of casualties and no one really knows the ramifications or the geographic scale of using a tactical nuke. So again, he's unlikely to do that. Maybe there would be some kind

• 16:34Speaker 01

  of nuclear demonstration, you know, way, way above the the Black Sea. I'm on thin ice here and talking about this, but I'm talking about the very, very, very extreme. But no, he's he's sitting pretty right now, he thinks. He's got most of Donbass. His goal is to get, if he can, those final two cities. To weaken Ukrainians' air defenses even more, to impose incredible suffering on Ukraine, the population, by knocking out, you know, continuing to destroy the energy grids as winter approaches. And, and, and then he knows that the administration coming in is,

• 17:18Speaker 01

  wants to impose a negotiated settlement, which is plays right into what he wants. He doesn't, you know, and he can say, he can, he can declare victory. And, and do we really think that he is going to adhere to any settlement rules that we, we think we've imposed?

• 17:35Speaker 03

  So yeah, that was, go ahead, Jason.

• 17:37Speaker 02

  No, I was gonna say, he's not gonna adhere to anything. And I was also thinking, he's also got us here at home, um, right where he wants us, because he, he's got us divided. Um, you know, he's got these big name influencers, and I think we may talk about that at the end, who are, to use a term that the young kids use, simping for him, simping for Russia, making excuses for them, and, um, basically pulling for them, and it keeps us divided. So it keeps us at bay, because like you just said, we're about to have a new administration coming, who's already making overtures about, um, you will make peace, you know, whatever that is, you will make peace, and basically taking Ukraine's voice out of it.

• 18:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, that, I mean, that's a great point, that the Russian, just the fact that we are seeing talk show hosts and other, you know, mouth breathers like ourselves on, on, on media,

• 18:36Speaker 01

  wringing their hands and, and declaring that the current administration is, is escalating. And look, you guys have heard me be very critical of this administration about how we supported Ukraine or other failed to support Ukraine, and the drip feeding of weapons systems has been, it's been embarrassing, absolutely embarrassing, the way we keep, um, talking, you know, talking about our own fears of escalation with the most powerful nation on earth supposedly, and yet we're running scared of Putin, even worse. Now he's playing with our minds, so we have a significant portion of our population who talk about him admiringly. I mean, if, you know, if the media is to be believed.

• 19:18Speaker 01

  But yeah, I mean, I, absolutely, you know, if we've learned anything, he's, he's not to be trusted. You, you can't.

• 19:28Speaker 01

  I know, I know it's very easy drawing analogy of Hitler, but again, I mean, think about when Hitler invaded the Sudan land in, in uh, in nineteen thirty eight and everyone's like, oh, he's gonna be happy with that. Okay, peace in our time. Neville Chamberlain said, holding up a scrap piece of paper that Hitler had signed. Alright, nineteen thirty eight. Okay, one year before the war started in, in Europe. If we don't, we don't read our own history.

• 19:55Speaker 03

  Yep. Yeah, and I think going back to like, uh, whether Putin uses nukes or not, whether it's tactical or, you know, others. The one thing he wants more than Ukraine is regime security. He wants to stay right where he is. And if he uses a nuke of any kind, like, that is seriously at risk.

• 20:14Speaker 01

  Yeah. Well, yeah. Um, we've got, you know, in, in the end, he's, he's a pragmatist and personal survival is first and foremost in his mind.

• 20:26Speaker 03

  So what would it, what would a peace deal kind of look like? And frankly, would the Ukrainians actually go for it?

• 20:36Speaker 01

  Well, from, and, and of course I've got, you know, no insider scoop, but uh, just from, from, I mean, no official insider scoop. So, you know, what I'm hearing is, uh, it, it would involve, uh, freezing the lines where they are now with, you know, Russia having some twenty percent of Ukrainian territory. Um, whether or not that includes the, those cities I mentioned in Donbass depends on what happens on the battlefield in the next few months. Uh, but, but freezing the lines there, um, of course, the question is who patrols that, who ensure, who monitors that, right?

• 21:15Speaker 01

  Uh, to ensure that that is happening because whenever you have a frozen conflict, you need usually an external force to come in to impose uh, order and to report violations. I mean, you obviously you have to. Okay, that's number one. Number two would be some moratorium on Ukraine's request to join NATO and the moratorium.

• 21:37Speaker 01

  That I'm hearing would be two decades, which is huge amount of time, right? Number three, and I don't have an answer on this, would be

• 21:48Speaker 01

  would be controlling or limiting or announced limitations on the amount of arms that mountain type of arms that the United States provides Ukraine. I would be horrified to see that clause included in this. I mean, again, with United States, I mean, we the negotiation agreement is between Ukraine and Russia, and I think the best that we can do is to enforce that, to ensure that it holds, is say, okay. You know, I don't agree with the moratorium on joining NATO, but if that is the case, then we should be arming Ukraine up during this frozen conflict and be very open about it.

• 22:32Speaker 01

  Because that is the only incentive that Putin is going to is going to pay attention to.

• 22:41Speaker 03

  Jay?

• 22:42Speaker 02

  No, I agree. I mean, across the board, that makes sense. I think the biggest thing would be the moratorium on on them joining NATO. I actually saw just before we started taping a comment someone made on X about that this is Ukraine's fault. They started this from making overtures about joining NATO in the first place that they that's how this whole thing started. And I it's laughable to me that, yeah, it's a concern to Russia. I get it. But to blame a nation that has been invaded, had their sovereign territory invaded, and I guess this is me going on my my soapbox now, is hilarious from the same people who say if someone

• 23:25Speaker 02

  invaded this country, they use the whole rifle behind every blade of grass analogy. They're the same people that say that, but believe that Ukraine should just roll over and take this and whatever comes after. It's ridiculous to me.

• 23:41Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think that I think those parameters in terms of having a peace deal are like farcical, like it's not gonna, why would the fuck would Ukraine want to do that? Why would they ever do that, even if they lost US support? I mean, why, why would they say yes to that?

• 23:57Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah.

• 23:59Speaker 03

  I mean, it's not like exactly like they're getting run over by the Russians. Let's be honest.

• 24:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, the Russians, the Russians are having a hard time too. I think it's fair to say, I mean, obviously, you heard about the casualty figures. There are also good signs that, you know, the Russian war economy, the Russians put their economy more of a way more on a war footing than ours. And and the big issue has been, we talked about here, air defense systems, but also an imbalance in artillery shells. But both of those factors are likely to stabilize and then and then tilt in Ukraine's favor during by late 2025, right?

• 24:43Speaker 01

  So that's why I think it's so important, whether or not there's an attempt at a negotiated settlement or not, to keep the flow of arms coming. And yes, okay, you know, worst case scenario, the United States limits itself, but we should not, certainly not try and limit Europe, European countries and supplying Ukraine. And that's, you know, one positive aspect of this whole sorry war has been that NATO has stepped up of the plate. It's gone from being in Macron's words, brain dead, to to being a force to be reckoned with. Poland is has is spending 4% of its GDP now on defense

• 25:26Speaker 01

  and has a formidable force right there on the, you know, NATO's eastern flank is essentially a regional leader. The Baltic countries too have really stepped up to the plate. And even smaller countries like the Czech Republic, you're not hearing hand ringing, oh, we must negotiate. They they're upping the ante too on on building up their military defense capability. And then, of course, you've got Sweden and Finland joining NATO. So Putin's done great things for NATO so far. Ben, and we and this and this.

• 26:02Speaker 01

  And and that and that has caused the loss of credibility for him. So we should continue those efforts.

• 26:09Speaker 01

  As far as, you know, the last piece about this is, you know, the settlement in order to work, both parties have to believe in it, right? So. You know, to say, hey, we're gonna, the quickest way to end a war is to lose it. And yes, we could, we could arrive at peace in one day. All right, by playing into Russia's hands, but we've got to take Ukrainian. You know, Ukraine interest in into. Into consideration, how off that sounds so obvious, right?

• 26:40Speaker 03

  Right.

• 26:40Speaker 01

  And I think you'll find that. You know, if the polls, there was an economist poll this week, and the majority of Ukrainians are not opposed to a settlement. Right, even if with Russian boots on Ukrainian soil now. And conceptually, right now, whether that includes the current position or not, hard to tell, and I can't. I can't speak to that, but yes, everyone wants to see the war end. They're watching. The best of their. Their youth just been destroyed uh over the course of the last. Over the course of the last, you know, almost three years. And um.

• 27:19Speaker 01

  And and and so to them, uh, I think they've reached a point again, if the, you know, the polls and I believe what the economists are saying, at least. I believe that fifty two percent now are in favor of some sort of, some sort of negotiated settlement. But it can't be one that is just thrust down their throats and that is disadvantageous.

• 27:39Speaker 03

  Right, it's one sided Russian, right?

• 27:42Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly.

• 27:44Speaker 03

  Um.

• 27:46Speaker 03

  Yeah, so what does it look like? What does a war look like where there's a negotiation going on for peace, but? Let's say a year from now. Trump administration's in. No more aid coming to Ukraine from the US, and it's basically just Europe. Uh, what is the war look like? A year from now, when there is no magical peace deal where Ukraine? Loses on every, every single. Deal point and everything like that, because there's. There's no way they go for that.

• 28:19Speaker 01

  No, there isn't. And Europe, you know, a number of European countries, I think, regardless of what happens, will continue to supply Ukraine, and that is not negligible. The, you've seen, you'll see, you're already seeing a shift in reliance more and more on European-supplied weapon systems. In Estonia, they did, the Ministry of Defence did a study that showed that by, I think it was late 2025, Europeans could be manufacturing and supplying, could be filling that gap on 155 artillery shells to replace the United States.

• 29:01Speaker 01

  And if, if, you know, the current trend continues with Storm Shadow and Scalp and Taurus, you know, it can continue to give Russia a really hard time. I mean, let's face it, the United States, and I think as Jack pointed out this last week, we've, we've kind of dragged our feet on this stuff. And by the way, ATACMS is now an old system. It was developed in the 80s. So I get it, all this talk about, oh, we need to, you know, we need to hold this stuff in case the Chinese come across the Taiwanese Strait. Well, we were already putting, shifting our eggs out of the ATACMS basket into other missile systems. So these are, you know, not yet surplus, but they're not, you know, again, they're

• 29:45Speaker 01

  an outdated weapon system. And so we should be providing as many as possible. We should also be providing, you know, the HGM-158 cruise missiles and...

• 29:58Speaker 04

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• 30:41Speaker 04

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• 31:26Speaker 04

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• 31:28Speaker 01

  And precision-guided bombs. But if we don't, my point is that the European manufacturing,

• 31:36Speaker 01

  European industrial, military industrial complex, there is no such a thing. But I mean, if you view it that way, is stepping up to the plate, to replace and with the intention of replacing the United States. I don't think you're ever going to see, especially those frontline countries. I'm talking again, the Baltics and Poland, you know, and the UK. Although the UK is not frontline, the UK memories of the Second World War are very, very vivid. And when you go to the UK, you will see Ukrainian flags and evidence everywhere. It's like a flashback to them to 1930s. And you're going to see those countries continue to support Ukraine, even though in...

• 32:19Speaker 01

  In in the UK now, it's a Labour government, you know, by US perspective, a socialist government. There are, there's been no opposition there to continuing to to go all in to support Ukraine. You remember that they emptied, like, turned the offensive in 2023, the Brits.

• 32:42Speaker 01

  Well, they continued to do this, train thousands of Ukrainian troops in the United Kingdom. Talk about fears of escalation, right? They don't, they don't care. They emptied their shelves of Storm Shadow, emptied their shelves of all their stocks of breaching, equipment for the offensive. And, I mean, again, when we talk about red lines, it makes no sense to be worried about Putin's red lines when you look at a country, and I'm not saying this because I'm not British, what the United Kingdom has done to support Ukraine without fear of Putin nashing back. And they're much closer and far more vulnerable to to Russian, to Russian malignant efforts than than we are.

• 33:23Speaker 03

  I have a question. Are there any efforts being undertaken that we obviously could talk about that's not like classified?

• 33:30Speaker 03

  In terms of like, the information war in Russia, how we can like maybe loosen Putin's grip? I know I've heard from a bunch of people, like, you know, the big, the majority of the population in Russia is relatively apathetic in terms of their domestic politics and stuff. It's like Putin's our guy and that's it, especially like, maybe not so much the younger generation, but the older generation. Are we doing anything to like try and rattle Putin's cage in terms of like at home? Or is it like an impregnable, an impregnable fortress to get into, like we can't even touch it?

• 34:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, Dee, that's a great question. And, and you know, this conversation that I'm about to talk about is dated now. But I remember when I was working on the Regular Warfare podcast as a host, we brought on the author, I forget his name, the book called Active Measures, which is about Russian disinformation, both history and current. And, you know, the the book, one of the themes of the book is how kind of. ineffective that we are, we United States, we Western countries and projecting our messaging within Russia and all this talk about what we need to do is tell the truth, of course, is absolute bullshit in this modern era. Hard to say where the Russian population lies. They they are,

• 34:50Speaker 01

  yes, they appear to be moribund politically, but you know, they're clinging on for survival. I mean, you've got to, even criticizing the war will get you a 15 year jail sentence in Russia. So it's very difficult for us to assess the the the level of opposition, but there are certainly indications that Putin's not popular. I mean, remember when Prigozhin launched his coup? And, you know, some of you may have seen the videos when he walked into the Russian Army Headquarters in Belograd and yes, everyone was kind of scared of Prigozhin, but they could at that point have the Russian Army could have crushed the few thousand Wagner dudes involved in the mutiny, but they didn't. And in that discussion, the generals alike, they're quite,

• 35:35Speaker 01

  they're almost agreeing with with Prigozhin. And then he's allowed to march on Moscow unhindered. You know, I mean, that was an early indication. There's no doubt that the the, I mean, there can be no doubt that there must be rumblings of discontent in the army. They have taken the brunt of the of this war. And this was in their eyes, an FSB war. They were led into it by false intelligence by the FSB and the FSB is what's pushing. You know, I mean, it's it's it's kind of governing not just Russian state, but there's a very clear feeling that FSB governs or is is peering over the army's order to to look for any possible signs of mutiny.

• 36:22Speaker 01

  I think that if I I I think certainly we can do way more. Ukrainians are are doing a fair amount, you know, obviously they have advantages in culture and language and they are broadcasting by all means into Russia itself to include.

• 36:39Speaker 01

  Very effective program for reaching out to Russians with relatives fighting in Ukraine, who have been captured or killed, have disappeared because they received no information. And Ukrainians are tracking down what has happened to their loved ones and even offering to fly them to Ukraine to, you know, to, to meet with their loved ones if they are a prisoner of war.

• 37:05Speaker 01

  I think we can do way more, the United States. I mean, we are the nation that spawned Madison Avenue, right? I mean, look how sophisticated we come to advertising and yet that has not shifted into our information efforts. And I've always been frustrated by that, always, and, and continue to be. I don't understand from the tactical to the strategic level, why the United States is so cack-handed at, at, at spreading information.

• 37:34Speaker 03

  Jason, what do you think?

• 37:35Speaker 01

  You know, countering disinformation.

• 37:37Speaker 03

  Right.

• 37:38Speaker 02

  Yeah, I, I have no solid information on an I O program being run against Russia, but I'm almost ninety nine point nine percent sure that there is. But as Andy's, you know, eloquently stated, it's just hamstring. It's, it's hamstrung. It's, it's, it's, in my view, and from what I've been told, it's very weak. I think at this point, we, not that we've seen, I'm saying this from a very sanitized point of view, because Andy's been on the ground, I have not there. But we do a good job and the Western media does a good job of showing the destruction in, in, from a Ukrainian point of view, you know, the port, the people there, and my heart absolutely goes out to them.

• 38:21Speaker 02

  But to the average Russian, that means nothing to them because unless they have relatives there, it's, it's another, it's a whole nother world for them. So I think, and I am not in any way advocating for this, but I believe that if there's an escalated use of Western munitions inside Russia and they start seeing that, that destruction on their home turf and start seeing some of their civilians, you know, God forbid, killed. That might be the I O open door that we need, that the West needs to say, hey, look what your, your government's doing to you. Look what Putin is doing to you, you know? He said that he was going to keep it there and that this thing would be over in six months, a year. And look, now it's at your doorstep.

• 39:06Speaker 03

  Well, it's supposed to be over in five days and it's been a thousand.

• 39:09Speaker 02

  Exactly. And so I think it would take, I think at this point, a hit on a major city, major population center. Again, God forbid, you know, that it happens, but if it does happen, that might be something that might, I hate to say use the word help, but help the information warfare sector.

• 39:31Speaker 03

  Well, Andy, that one was interesting when you talked about with like captured Russian soldiers, like they hit up their family and stuff and like offer them to come to Ukraine. Like I had never heard that before, right?

• 39:40Speaker 02

  I saw a video of that.

• 39:41Speaker 03

  I'm relatively interested in this topic, like something like that is something that.

• 39:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's fascinating.

• 39:47Speaker 03

  Whether it's whether, right? Any, any government like US, Ukrainian, Western European, should be using it somehow to get into Russia, to get into like in front of Russian eyeballs, to understand what the fuck's going on a little bit better. There's a really good YouTuber called fourteen twenty that he's a Russian kid, blonde Russian kid, bleach blonde Russian. He's like a little punk kid. He walks around St. Petersburg, Moscow, rural areas in Russia, man on the street style, asking people what they think about the war. And if you watch it, it's really interesting because it's a lot of people are just like, I don't know. So there's some people who are like Hawks and Putin is the best and I love him.

• 40:30Speaker 03

  You know, and we're going to take Nazis out of Ukraine and whatever. And then there's some people who have the balls to be like, yeah, this shouldn't be going on. This is ridiculous. Yeah. And his kids out there in Russia doing it, right? I don't know if he's being, if he's really platformed in Russia, but he is on YouTube. Uh, the YouTube channel is fourteen twenty, if you want to check it out. Uh, it's pretty wild and ballsy.

• 40:54Speaker 01

  Yeah, and that's, uh, you know, I mean, reinforcing that. And, you know, this is all very unsophisticated stuff. I mean, we should be, we should be taking a page from, uh, you know, the Chinese are actually ahead of the Russians when, in many ways, certainly when it comes to infiltration of communication systems. There's a, you know, there's a program they call Flax Typhoon that was uncovered by the FBI recently. And, you know, they, the Chinese have compromised something like quarter of a million routers, cameras, other devices. Uh, and not just in the US and Taiwan, Vietnam and, and Germany. They're collecting, you know, government, corporate, military data. I mean, these are espionage, uh, methods.

• 41:38Speaker 01

  I mean, but it's technology designed for espionage, but, but also at the same time can be used for, uh, for disinformation. Um, I mean, there, there are certainly things that we can do against Russia that, that never, you know, that, that never break the threshold of, of the public visibility unless the Russians discover it. And, you know, and I'm, I don't know. I mean, obviously we, we are bound sometimes by our own, I mean, always by our own, uh, rules and regulations. But, um, espionage happens. We all know that and technical espionage happens and is, is being used extensively against us.

• 42:20Speaker 01

  And I would, I would love to know that we are doing the same against our enemies. And the fact that not just once, but twice, a Russian ship, I mean, I'm sorry, a Chinese ship from Russian port can tear up essential fiber optic cables, you know, severing ties between, was it Germany and Baltic states and Baltic states and Finland? That would be used in, in any sort of military campaign. The fact that they can do that. And just without anyone, without any repercussions, anytime they want, really disturbs me.

• 42:54Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 42:54Speaker 01

  You know, and I don't mean, oh, we impose sanctions. I mean, if they do that, then we do something similar to them, right? You know, look at all the crap happening in the South China Sea. There should be an organization that looks like Greenpeace, right? You remember Greenpeace? But it's full of, it's, it's US funded and it's US backed, right? Doing all kinds of shit in, in those Chinese areas of influence or, or the areas that the Chinese are trying to impose influence. I mean, filming what is going on, um, publicizing it, um, bringing just a continuous bad publicity to, to the Chinese. I would imagine that is perfectly legal, right?

• 43:37Speaker 01

  And, uh, and, and in that Greenpeace, you have dudes who are former soft operators who are doing other things too. And, um, I mean, maybe it is happening. Uh, but there you do something where you get the, the world's attention. You get sympathy on the world of the world, and yet we are, we are actually damaging China in, in an area that it cares about. Uh, to some extent in the, the perception, but we're also gathering intelligence and we have the ability to disseminate, uh, to, to, uh, there I say it, sabotage Chinese efforts there.

• 44:15Speaker 03

  Yeah. Um, do you guys want to get into this, uh, Rogan clip? I mean, we're talking about information war and stuff like that. And it seems like the Russians are really doing a fucking good job as, you know, seeping their way into like one of the biggest podcasters in the country, not one of, the biggest podcaster in the country. And that clip is going viral where he's talking to, uh, allegedly, at least my opinion, drugged out, uh, music producer Scott Storch, which is the funniest part about it. If you ask me, he's not talking to some like former State Department official, some geopolitical expert or somebody who actually knows what's going on.

• 44:53Speaker 03

  He's talking to like a drugged out music producer, uh, and it's, and he goes off on, on what's going on in Ukraine and Russia.

• 45:03Speaker 03

  And how we're in the wrong, especially now because we're like trying to really push all the aid there before inauguration and stuff like that. And we gave the okay for the attackums and the longer range ballistic stuff. Um, I just want to get your, your thoughts on it.

• 45:18Speaker 05

  What I don't feel safer is right now they're launching missiles into Russia. The, how do you, how are you allowed to do that when you're on the way out? Like the people don't want you be there anymore. This should be like some sort of like a pause for like significant actions that could potentially start World War III. Maybe that would be a good thing that we would like to avoid from a, a dying former president. It's, it's, the whole thing is nuts.

• 45:42Speaker 06

  I mean, I, look, I don't know shit about politics.

• 45:45Speaker 05

  Zelensky says Putin is terrified. Fuck you, man. Fuck you people. You fucking people are about to start World War III.

• 45:53Speaker 06

  Yeah, it's crazy.

• 45:55Speaker 05

  Russia fired a missile today. Yeah, they fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time ever. It's the first time one of those has ever been used.

• 46:02Speaker 06

  That's insanity.

• 46:04Speaker 05

  Fucking insanity because those intercontinental ballistic missiles can have nukes on them. This wouldn't didn't, but if it does, the whole world changes and it changes because of the military industrial complex and it changes because the money that's going to Ukraine and it changes because the outgoing president or whoever the fuck is actually running the country has decided to do some, decided to do something fucking insane. Fucking insane. And we're all sitting there watching it and people are cheering it on. CNN was saying like, final.

• 47:12Speaker 04

  Unless told by your doctor. Report if you have a parasitic infection. Common cold, sinus infection, inflammation in the nose, flu or fluke-like symptoms, joint pain or sore throat may occur. Carry on with fewer attacks and ask your doctor about Extensure. Learn more at Extensure.com or call 1-833-393-3678. OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of 5-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at OnDeck.com.

• 47:54Speaker 04

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• 48:02Speaker 05

  See what their headline was about Zelensky using, about Biden giving Zelensky the ability to use long-range missiles. US-made long-range, it's not like nobody knows where they came from. It's not like nobody knows we've been funding this. It's a proxy war. The whole thing is fucking insane. It's insane. Come to the negotiation table, sit down, work this out, stop killing everybody. US allows Ukraine to use long-range missiles. So what did they say? Someone had said that like CNN was saying that it was a good thing, which I think is, how?

• 48:39Speaker 05

  How has the left gone so far crazy that they think it's a good thing to launch missiles? That's what's scary about life is like you don't want to pay attention to that shit. You just want to live your life. You want to just be carefree and have fun and do the thing that you're passionate about. And meanwhile, the world is burning and you're just hoping it doesn't get to you.

• 49:01Speaker 07

  At that high level, it's like there's nothing.

• 49:04Speaker 05

  Well, we can and we voted Trump in and his idea is to stop all this shit and hopefully he can do that. But you know, man, fuck. We got 60 more days until Trump gets in or whatever it is. How many days is it, Jamie?

• 49:21Speaker 05

  But who knows, maybe once he gets in they'll ramp it up. Who knows, maybe they'll sabotage his administration. That's what's even more scary, people don't want him in power. And the people that are in power don't want to leave power and they'll try every way they can to keep it. Sixty days from today.

• 49:36Speaker 05

  Alright.

• 49:36Speaker 07

  On the news.

• 49:37Speaker 05

  Sixty days.

• 49:38Speaker 07

  Keep your fingers crossed.

• 49:39Speaker 05

  Yeah, just hope Putin understands what's going on as well and Zelensky doesn't do anything stupid. But saying that Putin's terrified. God damn it.

• 49:47Speaker 07

  It's like you're trying to like tug the tail of a fucking sleeping, uh...

• 49:52Speaker 05

  Dragon.

• 49:53Speaker 07

  Dragon. Dragons.

• 49:54Speaker 05

  Yeah. Also, Zelensky, can I get a drug test?

• 49:58Speaker 02

  Uh, for me, the biggest thing is, like you just said, I mean, people are gonna talk, people have opinions, so it, it, whether it was a State Department official or a former president, whatever it is, um, people are gonna have their opinion, that's fine, people can talk about it. But the fact that Joe Rogan, and I'm not just picking on him, I'm talking about these influencers, period. The fact that they have, they know that they have this much influence and they're so willfully one-sided on things, and that could be any side, whether it's right, left, whatever it is, um, is just astounding to me that people will still defend that. You know, they will, like he, if you watch that whole video, not once does he say

• 50:41Speaker 02

  that the fact that these Western munitions are being used in Russia is coming as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. If it hadn't happened, they wouldn't be being used, but he never once says that. And it just, it blows my mind.

• 50:57Speaker 01

  I'm right, you know, I, I think, I, I don't think we can ever solve the problem of, and I won't just blame it on the American public, it's probably public's worth worldwide, but I think we in the United States tend to be more susceptible to these isolationist arguments because, you know, the average person tends just to care about the economy, how it affects him or her, money in his or her pocket. And so the only time he'll she... Worries about international events is if there is a threat to their personal livelihood

• 51:38Speaker 01

  or their life. So it's very easy for someone to take someone from that point of ignorance and just inject fear. I mean, it's what advertising relies on, right? You name it from herpes to to, I don't know, car accidents. I mean, commercials always start with the injecting fear and then say, hey, this is, you know, what can be done. And when you have a very polarized, a public that is very polarized politically anyway, it's easy to pile in on any administration. So this current administration say, look what's happening. Biden is escalating. Well, I mean, from a, from the perspective of someone who has viewed the war from the

• 52:22Speaker 01

  start, very close quarters, I would say, no, we've escalating. Are you kidding me? Three years later, and we're finally, we're finally allowing Ukraine to use the weapons, our weapon systems to their full effect against an aggressor. That is escalating. We, the most powerful nation on, on earth. I mean, it's absurd how pugilomaniac we have been. Notice I said that word correctly this time. Not escalating. And you know, how many of those viewers understand the history of the Second World War and, and its origins within Europe in the 30s? I mean, my, my kids don't even learn about Vietnam at school. So unless

• 53:03Speaker 01

  you have a historic perspective, and, and you watch as Joe Blow in the street, and of course, arguments of whatever that guy's name is, the, and, and Joe Rogan are, are gonna, when they play on fear, and their little two-minute soundbite are gonna have a tremendous effect and have millions and millions of views.

• 53:25Speaker 03

  Well, he is definitely.

• 53:26Speaker 01

  As opposed to, you know, our, whatever it is. By the way, subscribe at the end of this.

• 53:30Speaker 03

  Please. Yeah.

• 53:32Speaker 01

  By the time we become Joe Rogan, then we'll have a very educated American public.

• 53:37Speaker 03

  Yeah. Yeah, we have to start talking about UFOs.

• 53:41Speaker 03

  To start getting some Joe Rogan similar numbers.

• 53:45Speaker 01

  Well, if we played on fear, you know, if every episode we started.

• 53:48Speaker 03

  I mean, that's honestly.

• 53:49Speaker 01

  Believe this shit is.

• 53:50Speaker 03

  Frankly, most of the big podcasts, because I'm obviously plugged in to like. What the big podcasts are doing and what are they saying? Most of them are doing that. They're playing on fear. Whether it was leading up to the election or even now, you know what I mean? One side or the other, one side or the other. Uh, they all play up on fear and what's going on and are are like. Whether it's from aliens, uh, observing us to. Trans people are gonna kill you or, you know. Fascists are gonna come and be goose stepping down Main Street. You know what I mean? Like one side or the other. That's what the big podcasts do is they freak people out. There's a sense of urgency for people.

• 54:36Speaker 03

  This is my friend Athena. Uh, there's a. It's what people, it's what these podcasts do, literally, even in our own space, like the team has space, eyes on space. I look at Times Radio. Times Radio is a huge publication. You see, I see their YouTube videos and it's like Putin's in trouble. Putin's, it's like. Everyone tries to sex it up. I do the same thing. And, you know. And that's fine to get people in and have them watch your episode or your, your show. But you kind of got to give them a little bit of that sweet and give them like the vegetables, give them like the real information. That's no bullshit. That's nuanced. That's under, you know what I mean? Like.

• 55:18Speaker 03

  And not just play to that fear, but a lot of podcasts do do that. We don't because we're the best. So subscribe.

• 55:24Speaker 02

  Along with that too, I think something that, sorry, Andy, uh, something that, um.

• 55:30Speaker 02

  Earns a lot of respect for me is when people use the words, in my opinion, unless you're an expert at it. Like I'd look at some of these, I get caught up looking at some of these, uh, tactical guys and, you know, um. You know, I was a SEAL, I was a GB, I was whatever, you know, you get caught up in that stuff. When you get outside of your wheelhouse and you are not saying, in my opinion, or I'm not an expert in this, but I believe. That kind of thing. To me, you're just, like you said, you're just stoking fear and you're, you're pushing a false narrative to some extent. Because if you're not an expert in it, like you'll hear me say it all the time and most of the time. I'm sure that readers or listeners will say, why doesn't Jason say anything when they're

• 56:14Speaker 02

  talking about like Israel or Ukraine and stuff like that? That's because that's Andy's wheelhouse. So I'm learning just like everybody else is. I have an opinion on it and I will say that. But when we start getting into intel stuff, then I'll talk about it. But other than that, you're going to hear me say my opinion and not many of these people, including Joe Rogan, do that. And so their listeners take that as gospel and it's dangerous.

• 56:37Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 56:39Speaker 03

  Anything else, boys?

• 56:42Speaker 03

  How are we feeling? I feel great.

• 56:45Speaker 01

  Great, we're on Blue Sky now.

• 56:46Speaker 03

  We are, check it out. All the links will be in the description. Don't forget to subscribe to the new channel. Uh, Andy Milburn has a book. It's called When the Tempest Gathers. It's right over his right shoulder. It's a great book. I've actually read it. One of the three books I've read in my life. Uh, the link is in the description. Jason's on Blue Sky too. We're all on Blue Sky. The links will be in the description below. The best way to do to support the show is patreon.com slash the team house. We have a lot of fun, cool stuff coming up with the Patreon in the new year.

• 57:21Speaker 03

  You'll be getting little gifts and stuff like that, so get excited. I'm excited.

• 57:25Speaker 04

  Sponsored by GSK, the makers of Extentur, Depamocumab ULAa. If your asthma keeps interrupting, it may be time to try something else. Extentur is an ultra-long-acting prescription maintenance treatment for severe asthma, eosinophilic type, ages 12 and older. It isn't for sudden breathing problems. Extentur is the first and only add-on treatment that can help deliver protection from asthma attacks with two doses a year. Just one dose every six months. That's a lot of time for everything in between. Serious allergic reactions can occur. Get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. Don't change or stop medicines, including steroids, unless told by your doctor. Report if you have a parasitic infection, common cold, sinus infection, inflammation

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• 58:55Speaker 03

  I did. Thanks, guys. This was good.

• 58:58Speaker 02

  Thanks, everybody. Bye, everyone.

• 59:04Speaker 04

  Sponsored by GSK, the makers of Extensor, Depamocumab ULAA. If your asthma keeps interrupting, it may be time to try something else. Extensor is an ultra-long-acting prescription maintenance treatment for severe asthma, eosinophilic type, ages 12 and older. It isn't for sudden breathing problems. Extensor is the first and only add-on treatment that can help deliver protection from asthma attacks with two doses a year. Just one dose every six months. That's a lot of time for everything in between. Serious allergic reactions can occur. Get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. Don't change or stop medicines, including steroids, unless told by your doctor. Report if you have a parasitic infection, common cold, sinus infection,

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  Sponsored by GSK, the makers of Extenture, Depamocumab ULAA. If your asthma keeps interrupting, it may be time to try something else. Extenture is an ultra-long-acting prescription-maintenance treatment for severe asthma, eosinophilic type, ages 12 and older. It isn't for sudden breathing problems. Extenture is the first and only add-on treatment that can help deliver protection from asthma attacks with two doses a year. Just one dose every six months. That's a lot of time for everything in between. Serious allergic reactions can occur. Get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. Don't change or stop medicines, including steroids, unless told by your doctor. Report if you have a parasitic infection, common cold, sinus infection,

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  Sponsored by GSK, the makers of Extensure, Depamocumab ULAA. If your asthma keeps interrupting, it may be time to try something else. Extensure is an ultra-long-acting prescription-maintenance treatment for severe asthma, eosinophilic type, ages 12 and older. It isn't for sudden breathing problems. Extensure is the first and only add-on treatment that can help deliver protection from asthma attacks with two doses a year. Just one dose, every six months. That's a lot of time for everything in between. Serious allergic reactions can occur. Get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. Don't change or stop medicines, including steroids, unless told by your doctor. Report if you have a parasitic infection.

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  Common cold, sinus infection, inflammation in the nose, flu or fluke-like symptoms, joint pain, or sore throat may occur. Carry on with fewer attacks, and ask your doctor about Extensure. Learn more at Extensure.com, or call 1-833-393-3678.

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  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.