Assad Loses Aleppo & Israel/Hezbollah Ceasefire | EYES ON PODCAST

Today we talk about the 60 day ceasefire reached between Israel and Hezbollah, the pick up of of fighting in Syria and Keith Kellogg tapped to be the special envoy to Russia\Ukraine. Subscribe to the new EYES ON YouTube channel.⬇️ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJytcQbSOEKLGyhNwkqpd3A Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Find Jason here ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_app https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social Find Andy Milburn here:⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 https://amilburn.substack.com/ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Mick Mulroy here:⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ https://fogbow.com/ https://x.com/MickMulroy?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 1:10Speaker 02

  All right, guys, welcome to another episode of Eyes On. I'm not doing Andy's accent. We have Andy Milburn, Jason Lyons, Mick Mulroy. Happy Thanksgiving to everybody listening and watching. Hope yours is good. A lot going on from last week, ceasefire with Israel, Lebanon, or ceasefire with Israel and Hezbollah, really. It's 60 days. It's going to come right into about five or six days into President-elect Trump's new term. So what are you guys' thoughts on that? And is there a chance of a ceasefire in Gaza too? I'd like to touch on that after.

• 1:49Speaker 02

  Who wants to take it first? Raise your hand, guys.

• 1:52Speaker 03

  I can start if you want.

• 1:53Speaker 02

  Go for it Mick.

• 1:55Speaker 03

  I mean, obviously, it's a good thing whenever you get a ceasefire in here, right? That means the killing is halted and there's an opportunity to potentially to end it diplomatically, right? Start with. Obviously, what's really going to matter to Israel is whether they can get their 60,000 displaced citizens back to their homes in northern Israel and whether Hezbollah adheres to the agreement, which of course was required under the 1701 Unskr. But they weren't complying, obviously. So there's a lot to be seen, but the first step is there. They've started.

• 2:39Speaker 03

  There's skirmishes and both sides accusing the other of breaking it, but it does seem beholding, and I think that's important. What hopefully will happen now is what should have been the case before, which is Hezbollah withdraws to the Litani River. The Lebanese Armed Forces gets down into southern Lebanon, ensures that all their positions, you know, their armaments, their arsenals and them aren't there anymore. And that could give Israel competence to be able to allow their citizens to return. And the second part, although I think it was fair to say most people had given up on a ceasefire

• 3:21Speaker 03

  in Gaza, I think this puts Hamas in the position where they're more likely to accept something they wouldn't have accepted before. Why? Because they're isolated more, obviously Hezbollah's bowed out, at least for now. They realize that there's an incoming Trump administration who could be more supportive, even than the Biden administration of Prime Minister Netanyahu's efforts. And I think they can see the writing on the wall when it comes to that. So hopefully that does translate primarily to the ceasefire and the release of all hostages. And then, of course, a dramatic increase in the Mediterranean aid, which is down to,

• 4:03Speaker 03

  I think, around thirty trucks a day, which is just not sustainable for human life. So for all those reasons, I do think, you know, a lot of people said it wasn't going to happen in Lebanon. So hats off to the negotiators, Amos Hochstein and Brett and all the guys that worked so hard on that. They deserve credit because they certainly got a lot of, you know, criticism for not getting it done. So that's one thing. And then I think, I think that could, could actually help when it comes to the negotiations.

• 4:36Speaker 02

  Andy?

• 4:37Speaker 04

  Yeah, I think, no, I mean, I totally agree with Meg that it's, A, it's a tremendous job by the negotiators. Because frankly, they, they didn't have a lot on their side. You know, there wasn't like, there was a, a strong effort from the Israeli team to, to support them. I mean, we, we had Enet Wilf on the other day and, and remember, you know, I just want to remind listeners that although some people seem to think that what she was saying was extreme, what she was saying kind of represents mainstream Israeli thought in many ways. I mean, she was recommended by many people that I know in, in Israel.

• 5:21Speaker 04

  And so what she said on Lebanon was, hey, listen, our job is to go in there and mow the grass whenever this happens. And it's up to everyone else to, to fix it, right? So that kind of attitude was prevalent, you know, facing the negotiation team. So they did, I thought, a tremendous job. It's an uphill struggle and, you know, good on them. And the killing has stopped, as Mick points out, some three to four thousand Lebanese,

• 5:47Speaker 04

  you know, whether civilians or, I mean, obviously mostly civilians, dead. And, and families really moving back into southern Lebanon. The but is this, and, and it's, it, there's, you know, the Israelis, obviously, aren't the only obstacle to this. And the Litani River, yes, was specified by the seventeen oh one resolution. It's a blatant effort to enforce that. But some might argue that it's almost irrelevant now for a couple of reasons. One is the, you know, the. Although Hezbollah is on the ropes, they certainly have or capable of getting more missiles

• 6:31Speaker 04

  and rockets that range further than the Litani River, you know, and a lot of their sites are in the Parke Valley or around Beirut, the longer range missile system. So that that wasn't the greatest threat. And the other part is the part of seventeen oh one, we talked about this before. Seventeen oh one was, don't get me wrong, and you know, back when it was imposed back in seventeen oh six, it was the only possible solution. But

• 6:58Speaker 02

  In two thousand and six, right?

• 7:00Speaker 04

  What's that?

• 7:01Speaker 02

  Was it happened in two six, right?

• 7:03Speaker 04

  Yeah, it was not the two thousand and six war. But what is perhaps not recognized is the fact that a lot of, you know, most of Hezbollah's fighters are from that area, are from, I mean, they're not imports. They live there. They live in the villages. So it doesn't make sense to say pull the militia back. Now, if there is a concerted effort to disarm people, you know, conducted by the left, and uniform, back by uniform, backed by the international community to disarm militias south of Litani River, then, you know, then it then it all has

• 7:41Speaker 04

  some teeth. But that is a really, that's a hard task. I mean, at least before the Israeli offensive, Hezbollah was in many ways stronger than the left as far as weapons inventory and as far as kind of

• 7:57Speaker 05

  Look, guys, if we know one thing about our kids is that they don't hold back, and I wouldn't want them to. Get in there, try things, mess up, make a mess, paint that masterpiece, slide for home, enjoy the barbecue, bring it on, and bring on the stains. Because I've got OxiClean versatile stain remover. It gets out over a hundred types of stains. That's why it's America's number one stain fighter additive brand. Plus, OxiClean is color safe and chlorine free. So I use it on whites, colors, and dark fabrics with confidence. I've used it to get out tough brass stains, grape juice, grease stains, arts and craft stains. Even solved the great slushy debacle of 2024. And it isn't just for laundry. I followed the directions on the package to mix it with water

• 8:41Speaker 05

  to create a cleaning solution for all around the house. It does wonders for my kitchens, bathrooms, furniture, and even floors. So when my kids go all in, I say, go for it. Because I know I've got OxiClean to get the stains out. That's why they say it's not clean unless it's OxiClean.

• 8:58Speaker 00

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• 9:27Speaker 04

  I don't want to say moral weight within that community, but certainly credibility within that community. And that is a problem. And so I'd like to see a concerted effort to bolster the laugh, both morally and with trainers, with weapons, to get them back in the game. And I don't know, Mick knows this, but the laugh certainly... The laugh has actually been a success story in many ways since 2006. It is cross-denominational

• 10:07Speaker 04

  and has held the line pretty well as far as remaining that way. And the special operations forces are very good indeed. So there is something to build on that. They're dismissed and talked about contemptuously by the Israelis, but part of their problem has been lack of political backing, both internationally and within the country itself. So that has to change. And if there is that effort, and if there are international... They're going to need trainers, but they're going to need lots of weapons and support. And given that, then maybe this ceasefire has some legs on it.

• 10:56Speaker 04

  A commitment, I'm saying.

• 10:57Speaker 02

  Yeah, and just for everybody, laugh is Lebanese Armed Forces. Um Netanyahu in his, some of his comments said like now's the time to focus on Iran.

• 11:11Speaker 02

  And I mean, you know, I'm gonna editorialize, maybe you should focus on ceasefire in Gaza. You know what I mean? Like, maybe you should focus on that rather than, you know, more.

• 11:24Speaker 04

  It's causing tremendous, you know, again, tremendous internal dissension. By the way, it's interesting when the ceasefire was not tremendously popular in Israel. Um, it's not unpopular, but it's about, you know, thirty, I think it's like thirty-eight percent for, thirty-two percent against. And the rest are kind of, you know, let's wait and see what happens. Um, but the real issue for a lot of Israelis is, um, return of the hostages. And, and, you know, and the ceasefire in Gaza that leads to that. And to them, I, and it's, I, you know, I, I don't want to hazard a guess as to, you know, percentage of the Israelis.

• 12:06Speaker 04

  But certainly every, everyone that I know, um, is very concerned about a resolution on the hostage issue. And they feel that this, well, now's the time to, you know, hit Iran is kind of a hand wave. And, and a, and a distraction, they don't, you know, there isn't a feeling anymore that Iran is an imminent threat. After the Israeli strike and, and the kind of, you know, the, the empty bombast that followed that, I think. And most people see that now there is the potential, as we talked about here, of Iran ramping up. Um, to, uh, nuclear weapons capability, but that's going to take some time.

• 12:44Speaker 04

  And for a lot of people, the most imminent problem on both sides is, is attaining a ceasefire in Gaza. You know, for those who, who care about the Palestinians, um, to, to, you know, as Mick pointed out, the crisis there is, is off the charts. I mean, as far as humanitarian crisis, lack of food, um, influx of disease now.

• 13:08Speaker 04

  And it's kind of dropped off the front pages of the papers because of what has been happening in Lebanon. And for those who, you know, who care still about the hostages, then that that there is nowhere near a resolution at all. And that is that that's becoming, I mean, it continues to be a very emotional issue within Israel.

• 13:30Speaker 02

  Yeah. Jason, what do you got? What are you thinking about the ceasefire?

• 13:34Speaker 06

  I was just the part that stuck out for me where was what Andy was just saying about the hand wave, the sleight of hand on Netanyahu's part about focusing on Iran. I think as, as he pointed out, that the Israeli people in the world period are, they're quote unquote hit to the game, you know, they see it. It's not, you know, I'm not saying that Iran is not the threat that everyone believes they are. What I'm saying is that these little

• 14:03Speaker 06

  pinpricks of hits that are going on the back and forth, it's not distracting from like he said, you know, the hostage situation and the potential for the ceasefire to hold or not hold are greater. And I think the world and Israel is understanding that. So that's where the focus needs to be.

• 14:23Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 14:25Speaker 03

  One side note to what we're talking about is maybe BBC, I'm just looking up at here is reported that the rebels have gotten into Aleppo. So this is all intertwined, right? So a lot of the support for the regime in Aleppo was of course Hezbollah, Iranian-backed militias who decided that they had a better fight to fight. And that's probably one of the consequences of seeing that in a good way, I guess, to a certain extent, except for these rebels are mostly jihadist. I know we're getting into that, but this is all, this is all connected, right?

• 14:58Speaker 02

  Yeah, no, that's perfect.

• 15:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's an interesting thing too. I'd love to know, yeah, more about the rebels, right? They're all jihadis, right? And it's, you know, obviously we, Syria, the, the complex maze that Syria is, is like something that somebody should write a book about. Because there's so many like world powers, regional powers playing in there. Are we giving jihadis, you know? Were we giving jihadis like? Equipment and training and it's just. An insane like labyrinth. Of like you couldn't even like you needed decoder rings to understand what's going on in Syria. And like you said, like, I want a little bit more on like the HTS, like those jihad, like what are their, what's? What's their deal?

• 15:48Speaker 03

  That is complicated. I take the rest of the, I mean, if you even look at their Wikipedia page, you try to.

• 15:54Speaker 02

  That's what I try to do.

• 15:55Speaker 03

  Different groups, right? And it's aligned with Turkey and it's, uh. Yeah, I mean, ultimately, it's, you know, these groups, they have interpersonal political issues, squabbles, but at the end of the day, they're primarily Sunni jihadists. Who are, uh, who want to see a lot of these Shia militias the hell out of their country, of course. A lot of them are from there, but, um, and they're, they're backed by Turkey, which has been an issue for us, the US for a while. But, uh. You're right, it is a very complicated.

• 16:33Speaker 03

  Association.

• 16:35Speaker 04

  Yeah, I think, you know, I mean, Syria always makes me. Not angry, but. Yes, a little bit angry when we talk about it because we squandered so many opportunities there, we, the United States, and you guys hopefully know. That I'm not a, I'm not a hand wringer on this stuff, but. Having, having kind of, um. Uh, been on the, on the sidelines, uh, both, you know, in, in Iraq in, in 2016 and then at Socc Saint.

• 17:05Speaker 04

  Or actually involved in the problem. Indirectly since 2015. You know, remember. When, when it all started back in 2011 and you know, it's fair to say back then, the majority of rebel groups, the groups opposing Assad were probably not jihadist, or the majority of people who had, who had, you know, seized arms to, were not jihadist. But then through a combination of factors, complex factors, not, you know, I'm not saying it's all the United States' fault, but remember our talk of a red line, our, our efforts to

• 17:45Speaker 04

  arm a Syrian militia that were honestly, you know, they were well-intended, but they had embarrassing results. If you remember, you know, the testimony to Congress by someone who's in a prominent administration now, being questioned closely about how many fighters we had raised, and it was, you know, pitiful numbers, right? Because, you know, for, we, it, it is, it is a, it's one of our failed efforts to buy with and through. Meanwhile, while we're stumbling along, you've got al-Nusra Front, who was, which was al-Qaeda affiliated, and ISIS. And initially, they had an alliance.

• 18:29Speaker 04

  Somewhere around 2014, they parted ways violently, right? They were fighting against each other, Islamic State against al-Nusra Front, against Assad at the same time. ISIS won, and remember, the, you know, the Islamic State had this propaganda machine that was unbelievable, and young people opposed, young Muslims opposed to the Assad regime, and that was, you know, that was their, their primary motivation, flop to the Islamic State, right? To, and, and then, of course, they, I'm, I'm not justifying people who joined the Islamic State, but the motivation among, you know, certainly among detainees who were

• 19:11Speaker 04

  questioned, if that be believed, was, was to oppose the Islamic Assad regime. And we lost that, you know, we couldn't, we West, we, the United States, had nothing really to offer in, in return when we're trying to recruit our own, our, our own rather cat handed attempts now.

• 19:34Speaker 04

  Some government agencies did better than the military, but we in the military have nothing to be proud of until the SDF came along. Well, the SDF was not of our making. The SDF were a Kurdish anti-Assad organization.

• 19:50Speaker 04

  Led by a very charismatic guy named Masloum, Masloum, right?

• 19:57Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 19:59Speaker 04

  Yeah, around 2015, Special Operations, basically JSOC saw the opportunity to side with with SDF. And initially it was supporting them with with indirect fire and CAS. And then we started to to put trainers in there. And that was our success effort in Syria, backing the SDF, but it wasn't of our making. And then as the SDF, you know, as we kind of pulled a lot of our forces out of Syria, as the SDF became, you know, the Turks hated SDF. And this gets to, you know, there's a method to my madness here. This gets to why the Turks are now supporting the YTS,

• 20:44Speaker 04

  who by the way are Al Qaeda affiliated, because they think any rebel group is better than the Kurds, right? So the SDF got kind of whittled away. And frankly, they were never really after Assad. They just wanted to carve out an area for them where they could live in some, you know, kind of autonomously in the same way that the Kurds did in Iraq. But every time they raised their head above the parapet, the Turks would pound them. And that is kind of how we get to where we are now, where we have an Al Qaeda affiliated group. Going besieging Aleppo or entering Aleppo, as the latest reports are to be believed.

• 21:26Speaker 04

  And the sad thing is that these, that yes, the the most capable groups fighting Assad right now are tend to be extremists and be the ones that we, the United States, don't want to see in power. But the Turks, I mean, as long as it's not, again, as long as it's not the key word, they're fine with it.

• 21:49Speaker 03

  Yeah, if I can add two quick points to Andy's points. I would agree certainly with the effort to for the regime overthrowing. And I can't get into the details, obviously, of the covert program. But as it's been reported, I would agree with Andy. It had more success. The issue really was it had potentially so much success that Russia felt the need to become actively involved. Right? So, you know, you go for in 2011, you know, when the when the whole civil war really started to what I guess it was 2014. Correct me if experts out there are wrong. When Russia became fully, fully involved and there's only so much, you know, any proxy

• 22:31Speaker 03

  element covert or not can do against, you know, not only regime like Assad, but, you know, a superpower, you know, or a rump superpower in Russia. So, and perhaps the mechanism was working, but the political will and, you know, what they could. It's reasonable for them to be able to accomplish simply wasn't there. And then I would just also add Andy's assessment of the SDF and the and the effort by JSOC primarily supported by others. That was a great example of what a proxy force could do. They did 99% of the fighting. They were very capable. We enhanced their capabilities and that led to the defeat of ISIS

• 23:16Speaker 03

  in Syria and the enduring defeat for the most part. So it's it's it's it's one of those things that I think we're getting very good at doing it. It just has to fit in the right policy dynamics with realistic, you know, determinations of what they can actually accomplish. But I would I would certainly agree. And yes, all the stuff with the Turks, that was one of the reasons why we had such a tumultuous time in the Pentagon when I was there. With the STF and being told to leave a couple of times, which we never have, but we're still there.

• 23:50Speaker 06

  And

• 23:51Speaker 04

  I'm curious.

• 23:53Speaker 02

  Go ahead, Jay, go ahead.

• 23:54Speaker 06

  No, I'm just curious as to what Russia's commitment to this will continue to be, given what's happening in Ukraine. Obviously, they have the the numbers to do it, but I suppose backtracking that it would depend on the progress or lack of thereof that's being made in Syria, but maybe one of you two would be able to answer your thoughts on how long their commitment will last in Syria.

• 24:24Speaker 02

  Andy?

• 24:27Speaker 06

  I think you

• 24:28Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, I they yeah, difficult to say. It's a great question, Jason. I mean, the to them to them, Syria is a success story. It used to be, you know, we talk about, we talk about using, you know, by with and through, using a relatively small amount of forces to achieve strategic aims. And I hate to say it, but that's kind of what the Russians have done in Syria. I mean, they add a cost to them. Yes, they but but remember, even when we even when we pummeled them back in, when was that, Mick? Was it 2015? No, it was 2017, right?

• 25:10Speaker 04

  We killed like

• 25:11Speaker 02

  Orya Wagner, guys?

• 25:12Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 25:13Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 25:14Speaker 06

  Oh, yeah.

• 25:15Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 25:15Speaker 06

  And I think that's what everybody concentrates on. That's why I think everybody, the average person like me thinks, oh, you know, we kicked their ass over there, you know?

• 25:25Speaker 04

  But they continued because remember, the guys they lost were guys that they could disassociate themselves with, guys they didn't have to answer the families about, right? And and that's and so, I mean, they've got mainstream Russian forces there too. And they certainly stepped down their mainstream effort, but they continue to, you know, they some would argue they didn't need to maintain a large force there because they have tremendous influence and they they continue to to achieve their strategic ambitions. And and the last thing.

• 26:01Speaker 05

  Look, guys, if we know one thing about our kids is that they don't hold back, and I wouldn't want them to. Get in there, try things, mess up, make a mess, paint that masterpiece, slide for home, enjoy the barbecue, bring it on, and bring on the stains. Because I've got OxiClean Versatile Stain Remover. It gets out over 100 types of stains. That's why it's America's number one stain fighter additive brand. Plus, OxiClean is color safe and chlorine free. So I use it on whites, colors, and dark fabrics with confidence. I've used it to get out tough grass stains, grape juice, grease stains, arts and craft stains, and it even solved the great slushy debacle of 2024. And it isn't just for laundry. I followed the directions on the package to mix

• 26:44Speaker 05

  it with water to create a cleaning solution for all around the house. It does wonders for my kitchens, bathrooms, furniture, and even floors. So when my kids go all in, I say, "Go for it," because I know I've got OxiClean to get the stains out. That's why they say, "It's not clean unless it's OxiClean."

• 27:01Speaker 00

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 27:31Speaker 04

  The fact that, that I would say is that, remember, they also had help from Iran, whether they, you know, they've had bumpy relationship with Iran. But in Syria, they've generally got along pretty well. And the Iranians have done the brunt of the actual fighting, fighting. I mean, again, you know, Russian military has plenty of advisors there. But the frontline troops Russians are using, in the past at least, have generally been contractors. So they're achieving, yeah. And then, look, they've got a Mediterranean port, they've got tremendous, I mean, if you talk to people who've been journalists, who've been, you know, into regime-held Syria, you hear Russian voices everywhere. You even

• 28:15Speaker 04

  have Russian tourists going to the Mediterranean, you know, resorts there. I mean, it is heavily under Russian influence.

• 28:25Speaker 03

  That's right. The strategic games is all they care about, right? 500,000 civilians dead. Doesn't matter. The Wagner guys were killed. I mean, we can see how much they care about troop lossage in Ukraine now. So that those things are inconsequential really to the Russian, you know, thought process. So they think, I think, as Andy said, that they've been successful there. That's I don't I don't see them leaving anytime.

• 28:52Speaker 06

  Yeah, I just was it was I was curious because like I, as I said, average guy like me, average citizen is probably like, holy shit, Russia is still there like they they just hadn't, you know, didn't even think about it until this came up.

• 29:07Speaker 02

  Yeah. So talking about Russia.

• 29:11Speaker 04

  Yeah, by the way, but you know, across across Africa too. I mean, look at the Pants of Hell region in Africa. I mean, the Wagner Group is still going strong now.

• 29:26Speaker 04

  Carrying out Russian, Russian strategic games that the French, the French have no influence in Mali at all now. I mean, it is the it is basically Russians running the show.

• 29:41Speaker 02

  Yeah. Trump has nominated Keith Kellogg, former national security advisor and retired lieutenant general to be the special envoy, right? Ukraine, Russia envoy. So he's going to be taking part most likely in the negotiations in terms of what like a peace deal or ceasefire deal would look like. What do you got? Mick, you you mentioned this, like, what do you think about the plan? Where do you think it goes from here? Is this guy a good pick? Give me everything. Everything you got.

• 30:10Speaker 03

  I do think he's, yeah, I do think he's a good pick. I mean, he's extraordinarily experienced. He was a national security advisor in addition to be in a retired three star. But I think he's like 80. So God bless him for still serving, you know? I tend to be at the BFW.

• 30:28Speaker 03

  Almost exclusively in Whitefish. But so some of the points that I point out from General Kellogg, he he was actually critical of not supplying more weapons to Ukraine before the invasion and that the decisions to provide weapons to Ukraine after which should have came faster with less deliberation and certainly more effect on the battle. Now, part of that might be I'm just criticizing the other guy kind of thing. But I do think, you know, if he agrees with that, then his overall posture should be that he wants the Ukrainians to win, which is a good, good thing. Now, the question is, how is this actually going to work?

• 31:12Speaker 03

  I looked in specifically into what it seems like they're proposing. Yes, it's a freeze in the conflict. Yes, there'll be some kind of demilitarized zone with NATO troops who, to my knowledge, haven't signed on NATO troops, non-US to do it. But from my understanding, it won't require that Ukraine, if they agree with it, of course, they have to agree, give up on their claim to their own sovereign territory. So it isn't a concession of these, you know, 20% of Ukraine. It is, it is a stop in the fighting and a potentially an agreement not to try to militarily take it back during the terms of whatever the ceasefire is.

• 31:53Speaker 03

  And then, of course, they can't join NATO until, you know, a specified time in the future. But the question really comes down to, yes, okay, that's potentially, and then there the there will be something they call a levy on, there'll be some sanction relief for Russia, but there'll be a levy on their foreign assets that pays for the reconstruction, is what I understand. So, you know, I guess I'm not advocating for that plan, but I think we should look at all the details because oftentimes it gets short script when it comes to the explanation in the media of what it entails. Others that are not associated with the incoming transition team have said, you know, let's take a look at it.

• 32:35Speaker 03

  Because ultimately, this is, this is up to Ukraine and obviously Russia. The other part of this equation is. How many people believe Russia would adhere to this? I mean, why did they launch an invasion just to, you know, to end up with this stalemate? Uh, with, you know, a lot of the region where they have simply not valuable terrain. Uh, so, and then of course, how many times have you, Russia broken agreements with Ukraine? So how valid is the agreement when you have somebody, um, uh, like Russia on one side of it and their word? So there's a lot going into this, but I do think, well, and I do, I do think he's a good selection. Uh, certainly his experience, he's, he's going in this, uh, with decades and decades of experience.

• 33:20Speaker 03

  And somebody who by all statements I've seen is, is supportive of our partner in Ukraine. Uh, you know, being successful, uh, in the long term.

• 33:32Speaker 02

  Mr. Milburn, Colonel Milburn, apologies.

• 33:36Speaker 04

  No, I, I agree a hundred percent with, with that. Yeah. We, I mean,

• 33:42Speaker 04

  no, no, no negotiation. I mean, no ceasefire agreement, whatever we're calling it is going to be perfect. It's not from the point of view of anyone who supports Ukraine, but, uh, on the other hand, uh, you know, as I said here before, I, I mean, Ukraine cannot continue losing the, the number of, of people they lose, they're losing the best part of their population. And it's, uh, I, I think, you know, I, I think if you look at polls, even the majority of Ukrainians now are, are realizing that and saying that some kind of negotiated, they would accept some kind of negotiated ceasefire, even if it meant ceding some territory to Russia for the time being.

• 34:25Speaker 04

  But I would, I hope that there are two parts to this. Okay. That one is, I, I, the, the moratorium on joining NATO makes me very uncomfortable. I feel like that's an over concession, right? You know, I mean, Russia wants to end the war too. We don't have to trip over ourselves and saying, oh, here. And by the way, you know, are we, I think we should hold that off as a, in, in the wings, say, hey, We're gonna look at this, see how the ceasefire works out, all right? Before we make any commitment on not bringing Ukraine into NATO. Because Russia, if you start, you know, if anything starts happening, then we're gonna rush to bring Ukraine into NATO.

• 35:07Speaker 04

  We need to have that there as, as a kind of a clause to, to make sure Putin does adhere to this. Because he's terrified of that happening. Number two is, I hate to see any moratorium on providing weapons to Ukraine. All right, we should not agree to that. We, we, we should say, hey, you shouldn't worry about what we're providing Ukraine as long as you adhere to the rules of the, of, you know, this ceasefire. And then we should flood Ukrainians with weapons to ensure that the ceasefire holds, all right? And if Ukrainians are the ones who violate the ceasefire, well, then, you know, there's gonna be, there, there's gonna be penalties, obviously, for them.

• 35:46Speaker 04

  Um, but the point is, again, uh, to Mick's point, you know, Putin is still in control in Russian. Putin is not someone you can negotiate with. He's not a man, as I think one of our own presidents said, that, that you can come to a deal with at all. Unless he is afraid of the consequences of it going wrong. And so we need to hold those consequences close to our chest with, with a stronger country by far. You know, we can't, we've got to be wary of building Russia up into this, you know, this, this bogeyman. And with, with, you know, talks of, of, of new non-nuclear kinetic weapons, blah, blah, blah.

• 36:25Speaker 04

  Remember, three years ago, we were, everyone was in, in think tank land was pissing themselves at the thought of the Russian army. You know, facing the Russian army and we find that the Russian army is a peeped tiger. They can't even invade Ukraine, for Christ's sake, a country one-fifth of their size. And they've been stymied, they're losing, as we said on this show, a thousand men a day, and you can look that up. And, you know, a thousand to include casualties a day, um.

• 36:54Speaker 04

  To to put that in in some kind of context, the allies during the breakout from Normandy were taking that many casualties with an army many times the size of the Russian army in Ukraine. Right? I mean, it's it's phenomenal casualties. So Russia may not consider itself on the ropes. It may, but at the same time, there's there's strong reasons for them to want to end this conflict too. And rather than trip over ourselves by giving them concessions, we need to bear that in mind as we go into this. But yes, absolutely. I I agree with Mick, you know, a good, that's a a solid guy, at least.

• 37:34Speaker 04

  Not a a Fox News presenter who's in charge of the of the negotiations here. Perhaps a guy who understands the Russians as what that have, you know, as well as anyone in D O D. And and I think that's all positive.

• 37:49Speaker 03

  And I do to any second point, I do think. If I read it correctly, that it would maintain the level of military support for the very reason you said. So that they they will be able to not only defend themselves, but continue to rehabilitate their army and strengthen. So that if there is some kind of breakdown in the ceasefire, that they'll be prepared, which would just only enhance the idea that Russia would stick to the ceasefire if they know that was happening. And you're right, we shouldn't throw all of our willingness to concede on the table to start the negotiations. I mean, that's that's something we should probably consider, maybe General Kellogg will.

• 38:29Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. I mean, because you look at like the the deal points, like the points in the planet. It's it's basically like somebody in the Kremlin drafted it up. It sounds like, you know what I mean? It sounds like Ukraine is going to lose everything.

• 38:42Speaker 02

  And. Why would they? Why? Why would they do that? Like, they're not the bad guys here. It's a pretty clear and cut who the bad guys are here, right?

• 38:52Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 38:53Speaker 02

  Yeah, for sure. Um. Anything else, boys? What are you thinking?

• 39:02Speaker 03

  That's a lot.

• 39:03Speaker 02

  That is a lot.

• 39:04Speaker 03

  That is a lot.

• 39:05Speaker 02

  Um, we touched on Africa, mix in Africa now with fog bow, uh, doing some humanitarian aid, doing the damn thing. While everyone else is stuffing their face in Turkey yesterday mixing Africa, providing food and you know, how many metric tons did you say, Mick? Before we started?

• 39:24Speaker 03

  Well, I don't, I don't, I don't want to get into.

• 39:25Speaker 02

  A lot of them. Okay, sir, sorry.

• 39:29Speaker 03

  It's only talking about Sudan.

• 39:31Speaker 02

  Yeah. Okay, so, okay, great, let's do that.

• 39:35Speaker 03

  So Sudan has been going through this civil war since, uh, April 23rd, I think is when it started between, I mean, the recent, uh, issue Sudanese Armed Forces, the Rapid Support Forces, which is a branch insurgent group out of the Sudanese Armed Forces, essentially the deputy of Burhama, who runs the Sudanese Armed Forces, uh, leads this group, this RSL. Uh, they have essentially brought the 50 million plus people of Sudan to break. It's definitely the biggest crisis even dwarfing Gaza right now.

• 40:16Speaker 03

  So, um, over 2 million have left, about 25 million that are very food insecure, 10 million on the verge of starvation and they are actually predicting up to 2.5 million people could die by the beginning of the new year. Right, so people, many people, hundreds of thousands of people are surviving on boiling leaves and water pots. So in the, uh, the UN requirement to even deal with the current is only 50% funded. So this is, this is a crisis that's only gonna. Be more and more prominent to people around the world. This is Ethiopia, nineteen eighty-four, quite frankly.

• 41:01Speaker 03

  Uh, we're going to see uh thousands, potentially tens of thousands dying. Um, you know, in a week. Uh, if something's not done. So, yes, uh, not talking about us, but there's a lot of folks, uh, groups here. Helping, but there needs to be a lot more and it needs to be funded. Uh, it's, it's, uh, the, there is no positives, but um, the, the rainy seasons are about to come to an end. And when they do, it'll be easier to give food to people that are somewhat isolated, but it also means that the fighting will just intensify and they'll be, it'll be all over Sudan, which makes it even more complicated.

• 41:39Speaker 03

  And both sides, I think to some extent, uh, not equally, are limiting uh humanitarian aid, getting to populations as, as uh means of warfare, particularly the R S F. So those are things that have the international community has to be interested, it should be interested in for the sake that we shouldn't allow people to starve to death. Um, but also because this is going to create a, I would guess, and not just be guessing, but um, sorry to be in predicting massive migration flows. Of people who aren't just going to sit there and let their kids starve. And they're going to go throughout Africa, uh, obviously causing instability in the region and potentially headed toward Europe.

• 42:20Speaker 03

  So this is something that the world should be concerned about, not only for the sake of the Sudanese, but the sake of their own stability, and I think that's something that everybody should get by.

• 42:31Speaker 04

  Yeah, those numbers are staggering too. I mean, they, you know, Gaza, the, the problem is that we all that the numbers.

• 42:40Speaker 05

  Look, guys, if we know one thing about our kids is that they don't hold back, and I wouldn't want them to. Get in there, try things, mess up, make a mess, paint that masterpiece, slide for home, enjoy the barbecue, bring it on, and bring on the stains. Cause I've got OxiClean Versatile Stain Remover. It gets out over a hundred types of stains. That's why it's America's number one stain fighter additive brand. OxiClean is color safe and chlorine free. So I use it on whites, colors and dark fabrics with confidence. I've used it to get out tough grass stains, grape juice, grease stains, arts and crafts stains. And it even solved the great slushy debacle of 2024. And it isn't just for laundry. I followed the directions on the package to mix it with water to create a cleaning

• 43:25Speaker 05

  solution for all around the house. It does wonders for my kitchens, bathrooms, furniture and even floors. So when my kids go all in, I say, go for it. Because I know I've got OxiClean to get the stains out. That's why they say it's not clean unless it's OxiClean.

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• 44:11Speaker 04

  Become kind of meaningless, don't they? Unless they're projected, you know Gaza, which is I heard what's happening there is horrific. I mean, 40 something thousand people dying there is horrific enough. But at least that news is being brought forefront to the world via the world's media. It is a, I hate to say this, but it's a trending topic. Sudan is not. And yet there are multiple countries involved in this. It is a proxy war, right? In many ways, and there are members of the international community to include countries that we are friendly with, who are fueling this with, you know, no one, no, no, no one

• 44:56Speaker 04

  to put the brakes on them. And the effects on the African continent and wider are liable to be, I mean, it's going to happen. This isn't something that is confined just to Sudan or even to the African continent is my point.

• 45:18Speaker 03

  Very true. And it's going to take the international community, especially, you said, Andy, with the countries that have influence on both sides to really push them to a ceasefire.

• 45:27Speaker 03

  And a resolution and get democracy back in place.

• 45:34Speaker 02

  Yeah, so guys, uh, if you want to help mix organization, uh, it's called Fogbo. You could Google it. The links will all be in the description. Uh, yeah, I'm spent. Things are fucked up, huh?

• 45:51Speaker 03

  Yeah, for folks, and obviously for folks that want to know, Fogbo is is primarily veterans, um, people who've served in a USR forces, lot and soft, that are taking those skills that they that they acquired to enable humanitarian operations.

• 46:09Speaker 02

  Make, I'd love to talk to you. Go ahead. Yeah, if you're interested, definitely. The website will be in the description. You could check it out. Sorry, I cut you off, but I'd definitely be interested in making talking to you about like, you know, what you're doing now, uh, more specifically, because, uh, I had this thought, like, you know, you were, uh, in the CIA as a paramilitary operations officer. I think that's safe to say. You've been in war zones a lot. You've seen it go down and, um, what you're doing now, really like, I don't know, it's like you, I don't know if you've gained perspective from what's gone on in the last 20 or so, so years where you're like, doing more to help people. I'm not saying you weren't helping people before, but you were, it was more of a kinetic place where it wasn't like you weren't really thinking about

• 46:55Speaker 02

  aid to impoverish people and stuff like that. So I'd love to like, sit down with you for like a long form thing and talk about like, that kind of arc, you know what I mean?

• 47:07Speaker 03

  Yeah, and I like to talk about it from the perspective of what veterans I think really bring, right? So not about me, but uh, there's a whole group of veterans and I don't need to tell you guys because you already know a lot of them are a little,

• 47:20Speaker 03

  I won't say angry because that just plays into your stereotype, but you know, the way the the wars that they fought in, uh, ended. But, uh, they, they, I think they should be proud of what they did do. And there's a lot of skills they have that could still be put to use, right? Uh, you know? The US military does more humanitarian operations around the world than any other group, period, and they do it more effectively because that's their their capabilities are astounding when it comes to the ability expeditionary operations and basically figuring shit out where nobody else can. So it doesn't need to be with us. We're a small group, but there's there's a lot of groups out there. There's already groups that are exist.

• 48:00Speaker 03

  And there's probably more groups that could exist and should exist of veterans if they're looking for that. So I'd be happy to talk about it from that perspective. Maybe bring some other folks on that are doing that, maybe a group thing to really give give veterans that are looking for something potentially different than they might think is available to them, an idea.

• 48:22Speaker 02

  For sure. I'd love to do that. Um, all right, boys, that's the show. Andy Milburn, he's got a book. Check it out. When the Tempest gathers, the link is in the description. All of our social links will be in the description.

• 48:35Speaker 02

  We're on Blue Sky. Check it out. It's in the description as well. It's getting yelled at because I didn't put it in the description by people. Everything you need to know. And he's got a great Substack. Mick's got a great Substack. Jason, Jason's on LinkedIn and Blue Sky.

• 48:49Speaker 03

  Blue Sky.

• 48:50Speaker 02

  And the best, yeah, the best way to support the show is patreon.com slash the team house. You get ad free shows. So no annoying ads interrupting. And, uh, yeah, thanks, guys. This is great.

• 49:04Speaker 03

  Thanks, Jeff. Thanks, guys. Thanks, everybody. Have a great weekend.

• 49:10Speaker 05

  Look, guys, if we know one thing about our kids is that they don't hold back, and I wouldn't want them to. Get in there, try things, mess up, make a mess, paint that masterpiece, slide for home, enjoy the barbecue, bring it on and bring on the stains. Cause I've got OxiClean Versatile Stain Remover. It gets out over a hundred types of stains. That's why it's America's number one stain fighter additive brand. Plus, OxiClean is color safe and chlorine free. So I use it on whites, colors, and dark fabrics with confidence. I've used it to get out tough brass stains, grape juice, grease stains, arts and crafts stains. It even solved the great slushy debacle of 2024. And it isn't just for laundry. I followed the directions on the package to mix it with water

• 49:53Speaker 05

  to create a cleaning solution for all around the house. It does wonders for my kitchens, bathrooms, furniture, and even floors. So when my kids go all in, I say, go for it. Because I know I've got OxiClean to get the stains out. That's why they say it's not clean unless it's OxiClean.

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• 50:45Speaker 05

  Look, guys, if we know one thing about our kids is that they don't hold back. And I wouldn't want them to. Get in there, try things, mess up, make a mess, paint that masterpiece, slide for home, enjoy the barbecue, bring it on, and bring on the stains. Because I've got OxiClean Versatile Stain Remover. It gets out over 100 types of stains. That's why it's America's number one stain fighter additive brand. Plus, OxiClean is color safe and chlorine free. So I use it on whites, colors, and dark fabrics with confidence. I've used it to get out tough grass stains, grape juice, grease stains, arts and crafts stains. And it even solved the great slushy debacle of 2024. And it isn't just for laundry. I followed the directions on the package

• 51:28Speaker 05

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• 52:22Speaker 05

  Look, guys, if we know one thing about our kids is that they don't hold back. And I wouldn't want them to. Get in there, try things, mess up, make a mess. Paint that masterpiece, slide for home, enjoy the barbecue, bring it on, and bring on the stains. Because I've got OxiClean Versatile Stain Remover. It gets out over 100 types of stains. That's why it's America's number one stain fighter additive brand. Plus, OxiClean is color safe and chlorine free. So I use it on whites, colors, and dark fabrics with confidence. I've used it to get out tough grass stains, grape juice, grease stains, arts and crafts stains, and it even solved the great slushy debacle of 2024. And it isn't just for laundry. I followed the directions on the package to mix it with water

• 53:05Speaker 05

  to create a cleaning solution for all around the house. It does wonders for my kitchens, bathrooms, furniture, and even floors. So when my kids go all in, I say, "Go for it." Because I know I've got OxiClean to get the stains out. That's why they say, "It's not clean unless it's OxiClean."

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  Look, guys. If we know one thing about our kids, it's that they don't hold back. And I wouldn't want them to. Get in there, try things, mess up, make a mess. Paint that masterpiece, slide for home, enjoy the barbecue, bring it on, and bring on the stains. Because I've got OxiClean Versatile Stain Remover. It gets out over 100 types of stains. That's why it's America's number one stain fighter additive brand. Plus, OxiClean is color safe and chlorine free. So I use it on whites, colors, and dark fabrics with confidence. I've used it to get out tough grass stains, grape juice, grease stains, arts and crafts stains. And it even solved the great slushy debacle of 2024. And it isn't just for laundry. I followed the directions on the package to mix it with water to create a cleaning

• 54:42Speaker 05

  solution for all around the house. It does wonders for my kitchens, bathrooms, furniture, and even floors. So when my kids go all in, I say, go for it. Because I know I've got OxiClean to get the stains out. That's why they say, it's not clean unless it's OxiClean.

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