NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West | with Zach Lowe and Joe House

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Zach Lowe and Joe House for Part 1 of their 2026-27 NBA Over/Unders pod, as they discuss the win totals for every team in the Western Conference. (0:00) Intro (1:07) New NBA season excitement (9:06) Spurs (20:56) Rockets (29:08) Mavericks (39:06) Grizzlies (46:51) Pelicans (59:41) Thunder (01:07:36) Timberwolves (01:17:09) Nuggets (01:26:49) Trail Blazers (01:33:43) Jazz (01:41:00) Lakers (01:49:25) Warriors (01:56:15) Suns (02:04:20) Clippers (02:08:24) Kings (02:12:21) Recap Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Zach Lowe and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat, Eduardo Ocampo, and Chris Wohlers The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by PayPal. The holiday rush is coming and you can get ahead of it with PayPal. Shop your favorite online stores with PayPal this season like eBay for collectibles, Fanatics for teen gear, Walmart for tech. Check out the flexibility to pay now or pay later and split your payments with Pay in Four with no interest, no late fees. Shop now with PayPal. Paying for subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com/payingfor. PayPal, Inc., NMLS 910457.

• 0:39Bill Simmons?

  This is the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. Make every NFL week more rewarding with FanDuel Rewards Club. You heard me. Just bet like you normally would, earn points on eligible settled bets, win or lose. Keep collecting points, level up and unlock bigger rewards. So keep an eye on your Rewards Club progress and see what you can unlock. This is your most rewarding season ever and it's with FanDuel. 21 plus select states or 18 plus DC or Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat.

• 1:41Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by The Ringer Podcast Network where you can find The Zach Lowe Show with Zach Lowe, who's remote today, as well as Joe House, who you can find on Ringer Wise Guys as well as Fairway Roland. And House and I have been doing over unders. I don't even remember the first time my podcast started ESPN in 2007. And I think we started doing NBA over unders at least that decade. And we've been doing it ever since. And we're about to do the West first and then the East. Wanted to mention new rewatchables went up yesterday. We did Friday the 13th. Zach has never seen it because he doesn't like horror movies.

• 2:18Speaker 01

  Stop it, stop it. I have seen it and I look forward to the, to the rewatchables about it. It's been a while, though.

• 2:24Bill Simmons?

  Not a Jason movie.

• 2:25Speaker 01

  I don't know what Jason does in that movie, but I know it involves kids at a campsite somewhere.

• 2:29Bill Simmons?

  Yep, it sure does. And we should also mention, speaking of kids in a campsite, Zach Lowe is writing again. He's got content for kids on a campsite.

• 2:38Speaker 01

  Look at that, the fingers work.

• 2:39Bill Simmons?

  It's back.

• 2:40Speaker 01

  He's showing us.

• 2:40Bill Simmons?

  The low post newsletter, blog, filings, what do you want to call it?

• 2:45Speaker 01

  It's a newsletter and do I regret it already? Maybe a little bit, but it's too late now. We're going, we're going to give it a shot. The league pass rankings are coming up in five parts in the next week or so. So we're off and running, baby. Let's go.

• 2:57Bill Simmons?

  I love that you're going to take it easy on yourself and then just decide to do the opposite.

• 3:01Speaker 01

  Well, we're going to spam it early and then we're going to, let's settle into the season, both spam it early, get people, give people taste and then off and running.

• 3:09Bill Simmons?

  Okay. Well, usually Zach would have come here, but he couldn't come here this week. He had family obligations. But thanks to modern technology, look at this.

• 3:17Speaker 01

  We're here.

• 3:17Bill Simmons?

  We're in HD. House and I are here. Zach's on a TV.

• 3:21Speaker 01

  He missed some, some stew. We had stew this week. I don't want to hear about the, look, I, I, my wife is away, so we're just ordering in. So I had nothing, I had nothing as good as the homemade stew that you had.

• 3:34Bill Simmons?

  So we're doing the West first. The East is more fun. We're going to save that for second. The East includes a lot of drama, too many playoff teams and House's Wizards along, along with my Celtics and the NBA champion Knicks. The West, which we'll get into in a second, is part of a bigger theme I wanted to talk about really quickly. It's something House mentioned earlier about this next title and what this means for the season itself. So I wrote back, like going back to 84, 84 finals Celtics, Lakers. And then that next season, there was just a lot of energy around it, right? Jordan was in the league, Magic versus Bird, the Sixers were still around. And just like, where are we going? Where are we going?

• 4:17Bill Simmons?

  1991, MJ wins the title, beats Magic. And then that next year, same thing. How far, where's this Jordan thing going? What do we have in store? The Pistons are there, the Knicks are there. 2000 finals, Shaq, Kobe, they win. Is this going to be a dynasty? Are they going to control the decade? What does Tim Duncan have to say about all this? And it just felt like there was energy going into that year. 2010 finals, Kobe's won back to back. LeBron has gone to Miami. We have a potential lockout coming. We have all of these young stars that are coming into the league. We're all, we're just excited heading into 10, 11. And then I think this season qualifies as well, the 26 finals where we have Jalen Brunson, you know, becoming a guy.

• 5:01Bill Simmons?

  We have the Knicks getting the monkey off their back. And then we have a league where it feels like, I don't know, 15 teams feel like they have a chance to make the finals. So do you feel the energy, Zach Lowe?

• 5:11Speaker 01

  I haven't been this excited for a season in quite a while. I have already blown past my personal record of longest time watching preseason basketball. I'm diving in, I'm dabbling, I'm flipping between games depending on what team is playing like a semi-real lineup. I can't wait for opening night at Madison Square Garden against the Sixers. It's going to be absolutely bonkers. Is it going to be the most expensive regular season game? I don't know, ever? I mean, what even compares to this? It's going to be insane.

• 5:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we have, and we have the, Luca gets his own team. We have the Spurs potentially as villains. We have OKC trying to get back on the horse. We have Jokic trying to protect this incredible era he had. We have Durant trying to basically get shit together for his last year. We have the Philly situation. We have Giannis in Miami, Tatum with his own team. You could just keep going and going. House, what's your favorite thing, a big picture about this season before we get into the West?

• 6:07Speaker 01

  It's, it's definitely already the drama around the Knicks and the, you know, capacity for that team to defend its title. I mean, I, I, I know we're about to sit here and spend 11 and a half hours going through the regular season, going over every single team and, but I'm ready for the playoffs already. I want to start, I wish, I'd like to fast forward. There's a small part of me that I just want to see Boston and Philadelphia and this New York Knicks team. I want to see Oklahoma City. I want to see what becomes of Minnesota. And I want to see them all in the high leverage playoff context.

• 6:49Speaker 01

  But the, the rich tapestry of the regular season awaits us. And to the point that Zach just made, the, the anticipation's at an all time high, all time in my experience. Like there was no off season. The influx of talent by way of that draft class and the way that the summer league went. And Zach just said it, these preseason games are nuts. People are dying to get into preseason games. There's, there's great crowds for these preseason games. It's been phenomenal. Jalen Brunson's on Saturday Night Live. I mean, the, the cultural icon that is Jalen Brunson and this Knicks team propelling us right in. I mean, let's go, let's go.

• 7:29Bill Simmons?

  LaMelo Ball has made the Timberwolves from moody to happy?

• 7:34Speaker 01

  Moody to giddy, I think is what.

• 7:36Bill Simmons?

  We traded Moody to, for giddy. They only traded two guys. So, and I'm guessing Nas Reed wasn't the moody one. Ooh, okay. We're going to start with the Southwest. We should mention with the over unders, there's an incredible, incredible, incredible variable this year that we have no idea how to calculate and it is the new tanking rules. Where basically the bottom three teams will have two ping pong balls instead of three. Four through 10 will have three. And then after that, it, I don't even know what the rules are after that. But we will not have tanking in the same way we did. We had tanking for 30% of last season. We had nine teams that did not care by mid February. And this year, I'm not sure how this plays out, Zach Lowe.

• 8:21Bill Simmons?

  Have you, did you factor that into your over unders?

• 8:23Speaker 01

  I think if you had asked me the same question you asked House, like what are you most excited about the season, other than the obvious headline teams, the, the players that have changed teams like Giannis? I think people are even underestimating what a sea change this is going to be in the NBA. Like no one is going to be trying to lose on purpose. No one is going to be sitting guys for random games in February and March. In fact, it's the opposite. The bad teams, the worst teams have an incentive to try to beat up on each other to get out of the bottom three. And then you have all these other complications we're going to talk about eventually when we get to these themes of like, well, what if a team doesn't control its first round pick? Does that sort of reverse the incentives a little bit because they don't care where it falls or they don't want it to be the number one pick?

• 9:06Speaker 01

  Because you also can't get the number one pick two years in a row and you want to be able to get it when it's your turn to actually use your pick.

• 9:12Bill Simmons?

  And what if you're, what if you're 11th and you have no chance in the playoffs? Are we going to see a high end tank, which we've never seen before? Like if you're Golden State, you have, you're 30 and 40 with 12 games left. And it's like, eh, are we doing anything? Probably not. Hey Steph, how about some golf? Can we send you to New Zealand?

• 9:36Speaker 01

  I don't think you have to ask Steph twice.

• 9:39Bill Simmons?

  Southwest, San Antonio, we're kicking off with them. They made the finals last year. Not sure if you guys saw, they are 60 and a half is the over under for them. They won 62 games last year. They went from 22 to 34 to 62. Last 30 games last year, they're 26 and four, House.

• 9:55Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 9:56Bill Simmons?

  They are, for the conference, plus 145. For the title, plus 270. One seed, plus 140. My big question for you, Zach Lowe.

• 10:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:06Bill Simmons?

  Would the Spurs have been better off just not making the finals last year?

• 10:11Speaker 01

  In what sense? Like too much too soon?

• 10:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 10:14Speaker 01

  We're ahead of our skis?

• 10:15Bill Simmons?

  Was it productive for them to go through that whole experience that seemed to rip some scabs and raise some questions that maybe wouldn't have been there if they had just had a feel good, lost in seven in OKC?

• 10:28Speaker 01

  Absolutely not.

• 10:29Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 10:29Speaker 01

  They made the finals, they lost, they felt pain, they felt like right away what it's like to be on the biggest stage. Victor Wembanyama somehow became a villain like overnight. My daughter, my 11-year-old daughter referred to him just yesterday over dinners, we were talking about the NBA as the Jerkasaurus. That's her new nickname for him. So she's all in on Wemby as the villain.

• 10:52Bill Simmons?

  How does she not come up with that, House?

• 10:53Speaker 02

  Now, that you need the

• 10:54Bill Simmons?

  Jerkasaurus.

• 10:55Speaker 02

  You need the mind of her.

• 10:56Speaker 01

  And like, look, Wemby's ready. And so if Wemby's ready and the young guards looked pretty ready, other than Steph Castle's turnoveritis in the middle of the playoffs, particularly against Minnesota, I think no harm, no foul. Like, what's the holdup? Let's go.

• 11:10Bill Simmons?

  I think I agree with that, but where do you stand, House?

• 11:12Speaker 02

  I definitely agree with that. I mean, the part of the narrative of last season's playoffs was a lot of us old heads saying, yes, this San Antonio Spurs story is cool. And yes, they look absolutely loaded, but let's see them in some high leverage situations. And that Minnesota series kind of gave us that origin, that indication like, okay, welcome to the playoffs. They ran their way right through Portland, no problem, but welcome to the playoffs with this cast of characters. And they were up to the challenge. I mean, the games that San Antonio lost were Wemby missing the games, half the game because of the foul, the, you know, the

• 11:50Bill Simmons?

  You don't forget about two historic choke jobs.

• 11:53Speaker 02

  By, by

• 11:54Bill Simmons?

  Don't forget about all the, all the Harper Fox stuff that came out of that series.

• 11:58Speaker 02

  Well, I mean,

• 11:59Bill Simmons?

  Don't forget about Kelton Johnson by then playoffs basically being unplayable. Like, I do think there are more questions that came out of that.

• 12:06Speaker 02

  You're talking about the seasoning of the Spurs, though.

• 12:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 12:08Speaker 02

  And that, I think, you know, net, net, that's all extremely positive for the development of that core.

• 12:14Bill Simmons?

  I don't think the Kelton Johnson thing was positive. I don't know what, I didn't feel like he was playable in the finals. And I think the Fox thing is a big referendum of where he's going to be. And it's probably the thing to watch. How do they, I talked last week on my pod, you have too, Zach, about if Harper is just, if this becomes a 1999 Kobe situation with Harper, where they basically can't keep him on, off the floor, what does that lead with the decisions they make at the end of these games? Do they just play three guards at the end of games? Is it three guards with Tobias Harris that we haven't mentioned yet? Or do they just bench Fox at the end of games and just brace for him being unhappy?

• 12:51Speaker 01

  I mean, more options with talented players seems like a good problem to have. I don't know how well the three-guard lineup will really fit. Mitch Johnson did not want to play it much last season.

• 13:01Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 13:01Speaker 01

  I think he'll probably just have to play it more this season to get Harper on the court more. Tobias Harris is not a bit player to me. I mean, that's the antidote to Kelton Johnson being unplayable, as you put it in the finals. He's like a way better version of that exact player. More talent on hand. Harrison Barnes is still here as the safety net. Like, everyone's back and they added Tobias Harris, who was like a 20-point a game scorer for a hot minute for the Pistons in the playoffs. So I think, I think they're, I think they're ready. I think last year was good for them. I see no downside.

• 13:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, I agree with that.

• 13:31Bill Simmons?

  And Cornet unplayable, too, is the other thing we learned.

• 13:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, but you're just describing a particular matchup in the finals. Like, it's not linear. We're not going from the finals to game one of the regular season, trying to win the finals again. What we're there trying to do is build a team that survives this 82-game schedule and is ready for next season's postseason. And that will include experimentation. It'll include versions of these players that weren't available. Fox was hurt. Fox was hurt the whole playoffs and in the finals, and his effectiveness was definitely diminished. But if he's in, you know, combinations of players, they can experiment. They're good enough to experiment and still kick ass all season long. And I think that's, that's what we'll see. Like, I'm not prepared to bite down hard on anything that we saw from

• 14:15Speaker 02

  the, the OKC matchup or the Knicks matchup and say, well, this is, this is the, the challenge that's in front of the Spurs. No, I think that they're, it's organic and they will experiment. They learned some lessons and that's why the seasoning was so important.

• 14:31Bill Simmons?

  The biggest challenge for them is going to be what they faced in the finals, the last five minutes of games, closing games. Who's going to have the ball? Who's going to create good shots? And who's going to, how are they going to finish stuff? And my guess is that's Harper. And honestly, it might have been Harper last year and they just didn't really want to rip the Bandit off and just do it. And that's, that's my question. What do you do when you're in the same situation, you were in the finals last year against a really experienced team that knows what they're doing and you have a team that just has not enough reps with it yet? LeBron or Tobias Harris? Want to talk that out for 20 seconds? Should they have made a run at LeBron? Would he have even been

• 15:13Bill Simmons?

  interested? If you're going to upgrade with a veteran, why not go for LeBron? Would that have been bad for him? Would Wemby have not? Wait, did you do any reporting on that, Zach?

• 15:23Speaker 01

  Not really, because it would never struck me as a real possibility that LeBron was going to consider it. And I'm not, you know, I mean, look, you have, like LeBron's better than Tobias Harris. I mean, he's, he's an answer to the question that you're posing about who has the ball in crunch time as your lead decision maker. You know, are the Spurs the right team on their trajectory, given their age, to sort of upend everything for a year, two years, to take like a detour into LeBron world? I don't know that they would really have been that, that interested in doing it, but I don't really know.

• 15:54Bill Simmons?

  I heard they were not interested in even exploring it.

• 15:57Speaker 01

  I, I, that wouldn't surprise me if it were true. I'm fine with the Tobias Harris ad. And all of these things are wonderful problems to have. Is it worth noting that De'Aaron Fox was the clutch player of the year like three years ago? He was supposed to be the answer to this question.

• 16:12Bill Simmons?

  We were laying the bean back then.

• 16:14Speaker 01

  And I think he will be part of the answer. Like, I think we're letting an injury-riddled and below-average playoff run, highlighted by one absolutely horrific decision at the end of game four, when he went for the layup and he didn't have to. I, this is still, the guy made the All-Star team last year and he's not like a scrub that is on the way out of the league.

• 16:35Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 16:35Bill Simmons?

  So that's the glass half-full case is De'Aaron Fox with a chip on his shoulder.

• 16:40Speaker 01

  That's the glass.

• 16:41Bill Simmons?

  No, De'Aaron Fox with a chip on his shoulder, Harper a year older, Castle a year older, and then Wemby now, having tasted his own blood and going on a mission.

• 16:51Speaker 02

  Well, I don't know. Wemby on a mission, what does that look like? That, that to me is the answer.

• 16:55Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. What does it look like? He's already, he seems feisty already this year. He's like, not, so I'm not talking to anybody.

• 17:01Speaker 02

  He's good.

• 17:02Bill Simmons?

  He seems pissed off about everything, which I like.

• 17:04Speaker 02

  I think that's the reason that there was never a serious consideration of LeBron. They have their own circus. They have their Wemby circus. They're very comfortable with their Wemby circus. They do a great job managing the Wemby circus. They go around stadium to stadium and everybody wants to come see the phenomenon that is Wemby and by extension, this, this Spurs team, and they can live inside that skin. And Tobias Harris fits in seamlessly to me.

• 17:27Bill Simmons?

  By the way, we have a lot of circuses this year.

• 17:29Speaker 02

  We sure do.

• 17:30Bill Simmons?

  There's a Philly circus comes to town.

• 17:31Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 17:32Bill Simmons?

  We have the OKC, we have the Luca circus, we have Yanis in Miami. There's a lot of circuses. All right, 60 and a half.

• 17:40Bill Simmons?

  Instinctively, I wanted to just say, oh, that's, that's an over. And then you just start factoring how deep the league is and that there are no easy wins. Where did you go in this, Zach?

• 17:49Speaker 01

  Oh, I get to lead off. Thank you.

• 17:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 17:51Speaker 01

  It's a big number. They won 62 last year in a league that, as you mentioned, was super watered down. I do think they benefit a little bit from the West being a shallower conference than the East. I mean, that, your schedule doesn't tilt to your conference as much as people think. It's still 52 and 30. But, but that matters on the fringes a little bit. And I just think like, I just think they're significantly better, them and Oklahoma City, than the next tier of teams below them in the West. And forget about the next teams below that. So I, I, despite, you know, the new tanking rules and that wins are going to be harder to come by across the board, they were 35 and 15 against above 500 teams last year. That's a number that I look at a lot for this purposes.

• 18:35Speaker 01

  Like, how real was your season or how, how much were you just beating up on the dregs? I think they're hungry, they're deep, they have arguably the best player in the league. I went over, despite the fact that it's a huge number in a deep, deep league overall and a, and a good conference, I went, I went over.

• 18:51Bill Simmons?

  I am going to predict House's answer.

• 18:53Speaker 02

  Go ahead.

• 18:54Bill Simmons?

  I'm a slight over. And he's going to do this.

• 18:57Speaker 02

  I'm not.

• 18:57Bill Simmons?

  Go ahead, House.

• 18:58Speaker 02

  Uh, I'm not doing that. And I might not do it the entire 11 and a half hours of these podcasts.

• 19:04Bill Simmons?

  A 0.5 whiff of an over.

• 19:06Speaker 02

  They're over. And there are wins to consume in the West because there are teams that won mid 40s, you know, low 40s, mid 40s in the West that I don't think are anywhere near that this upcoming season.

• 19:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 19:17Speaker 02

  So I think that they will hoover up some of those wins. And I just think that the experience of, of making it to the finals for this group, and especially what it meant in terms of the development of the, the depth for that team, they're, they're loaded and I have no problem at all going over.

• 19:38Bill Simmons?

  I'm a slight over. I always worry about the Wemby injury potential. Just because he's super tall.

• 19:44Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 19:44Bill Simmons?

  And you just never know his stuff.

• 19:45Speaker 02

  Totally reasonable.

• 19:45Bill Simmons?

  He played

• 19:46Speaker 01

  Can I just state for the record?

• 19:47Bill Simmons?

  71, 46, and 64 were his three games played.

• 19:51Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 19:51Bill Simmons?

  Seasons.

• 19:51Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 19:52Speaker 01

  That's fair. That's fair. I mean, I just want to point out that you made fun of House for going slight over and you just led with not deadpan, like I'm going slight over.

• 20:00Bill Simmons?

  Slide over. I think they're in the 61 to 62.

• 20:04Speaker 02

  Okay. That's a win.

• 20:05Bill Simmons?

  One seed plus 140. I actually think they will not be the one seed. But the number I kept looking back at their last 30 games last year, 26 and 4. And even if you're throwing in some tanking teams, that's still 22 and, you know, 22 and 7, 22 and 8.

• 20:22Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 20:24Bill Simmons?

  And they're going to be all year older and better. And I like the Billy Donovan ad, too. I thought that was good. They really, they lost Kelly Olynyk. They added Tobias Harris. That's all they did. Those two things. And we didn't even mention, uh, we didn't mention Carter Bryant, who I think, I, I'm just intrigued by him as a little, little toy for them this year.

• 20:47Speaker 02

  That's an example of the point I was trying to make about the depth. He got genuine playoff minutes, real highest leverage possible minutes. And that's really good for where he is in his career.

• 21:00Speaker 01

  Terrace Reed Jr. also getting like every single rebound in the preseason. I'm just, I'm putting it in my back pocket. It's like, if I need a third center for whatever reason, like this guy looks like he's ready to sop up some minutes.

• 21:11Bill Simmons?

  I think the bigger point, we'll get to when we talk about OKC, is there's two teams that are just way more talented than all the other teams. And to not go over with either of them, I think is pretty foolish. All right. So we are all over for that one. Next one. No locks, by the way? Nobody wants to lock that down?

• 21:26Speaker 01

  I'm not, I'm not locking it 60 and a half.

• 21:28Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm sitting tight for a minute.

• 21:29Bill Simmons?

  The Houston Rockets.

• 21:32Bill Simmons?

  They're over under is 48 and a half. Spend some action on that, Zach Lowe. It's been little bumps. It's been going up. Five to one for the division, 14-1 for the conference, 27-1 for the title. Last year, they're 52 and 30. They are bringing back Fred Van Vliet. They added Marcus Smart. They added Bruce Thornton. And most important, they added bearded Reed Shepard. Bearded Reed Shepard. Uh, I don't, he just looks like he's the young dad in a horror movie that moved into the house and then starts going into the attic and there's evil spirits up there. He is just kind of a more dangerous vibe. I like it.

• 22:07Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 22:08Bill Simmons?

  I think he might've needed facial hair more than just about any player in the league. Very excited for him. My big question, I'll start with you on this one, House.

• 22:18Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 22:19Bill Simmons?

  Could any star flip his career legacy more than Durant if he carried the Rockets to the finals this season?

• 22:28Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 22:28Bill Simmons?

  I'll give you some other possible legacy flipping stars.

• 22:31Speaker 02

  Go ahead.

• 22:32Bill Simmons?

  Nikola Jokic winning a second title. Joel Embiid making a pass round two. Jason Tatum carrying a Boston team to the one seed and back to the finals. Giannis rehabilitating, rejuvenating Miami and dragging them to the finals. LeBron in Philly, throwing the Sixers on his back. Or the one thing that will never happen, but I have to mention anyway, James Harden finally figuring out in year 28 and carrying the Cavs to a finals.

• 23:01Speaker 02

  Poor James Harden.

• 23:01Bill Simmons?

  What would be the biggest legacy flip out of all those guys for you?

• 23:04Speaker 02

  It's, it's, to me, it's Embiid, even though.

• 23:07Bill Simmons?

  Cause you've given up on his legacy.

• 23:09Speaker 02

  Well, and, and he's never been to a conference finals. Like that, there, there's no legacy. He, he is, he will, you know, until he actually makes it to an NBA finals, it'll be promise unfulfilled with that guy. And a league MVP to never make a conference finals or a finals.

• 23:25Bill Simmons?

  What's your answer, Zach?

• 23:28Speaker 01

  Well, I'll throw out some other names for you. You didn't mention Luca. What if the Lakers are way better than expected? And he actually gets his first MVP after being like among the preseason favorites for five or six years? And I'm just gonna say like, I'm just, I'm just gonna say it. What if, what if the Raptors make the finals again with Kawhi Leonard? What if Kawhi just has Toronto? And then eight years later, another Toronto and all in between is planting trees and boingo wireless and all this stuff. Does he become like a, an honorary parliamentarian in Ontario by that point? So those are, those are, uh.

• 23:59Bill Simmons?

  We just had to start a podcast talking about his legacy. Just every episode is a new legacy chapter.

• 24:05Speaker 01

  I am, I just want to say, I am encouraged and heartened that I, I looked at my timer. We, we got over 20 minutes before the L word was dropped on this podcast.

• 24:14Bill Simmons?

  I have it in other spots too. There's gonna be more legacy talk later.

• 24:19Speaker 01

  And I was happy that it was about Kevin Durant because I, I do think it's a weird thing to say about a top 12 all time player who's a two-time finals MVP, but he does feel like, he, we've talked to Adosio about it. He is a, a superstar in need of the right coda to his career. And I think this team, I, I, I don't know that anybody out of the West could make the finals other than the top two, unless there's a major injury, but this team has a chance to at least be a very feel-good sort of coda this year for him.

• 24:49Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we have three puncher's chance if a bunch of things go right, West teams that I think could make it. And this is one of them. Durant, since the 2018 finals, how many playoff games do you think he's played, House?

• 25:00Speaker 02

  Since what year finals?

• 25:01Bill Simmons?

  Since he went down in the, uh, I'm sorry, in the 2019 finals.

• 25:06Speaker 02

  So he played with Brooklyn and played a bunch of playoff games.

• 25:10Bill Simmons?

  Phoenix and Houston last year.

• 25:12Speaker 02

  Yeah. Uh, you're asking how many playoff games has he played in?

• 25:15Bill Simmons?

  I'll give you the answer. 32.

• 25:16Speaker 02

  Okay. I would've guessed in the twenties.

• 25:19Bill Simmons?

  He's had two playoff series wins in the 2020s. He has 17 straight years of 25 points a game.

• 25:27Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 25:27Bill Simmons?

  17.

• 25:28Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 25:31Speaker 02

  All-timer.

• 25:31Bill Simmons?

  He has played over 50,000 minutes combined, regular season playoffs, which makes him one of 23 guys ever. And if he has a pretty normal season, he'll be in the top 12 for that.

• 25:45Bill Simmons?

  And Zach is right. There's no coda for everything that's happening here. This is just kind of drifting along. I will say, this team got rid of Finney Smith, Okoge and Jeff Green and added healthy Fred Van Vliet, Marcus Smart, Bruce Thornton and bearded Reed Shepard. I'm gonna say it again. They're just gonna be better. The vibes are gonna be better. They have actual guards. They can run an offense.

• 26:07Speaker 02

  You can't just drive by the return of Steven Adams. You have to mention Steven Adams.

• 26:11Bill Simmons?

  And the healthy Steven Adams. Should've mentioned that as well.

• 26:14Speaker 02

  For as long as he's healthy, a healthy Steven Adams is crucial to this team.

• 26:18Bill Simmons?

  Hey Zach.

• 26:19Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 26:20Bill Simmons?

  They have some draft pick shit that they can fuck around with here.

• 26:23Speaker 01

  That's, that's another variable that you gotta consider with all these teams. Who's got the assets to make a win now trade? Or who wants to be a seller and who, who would be motivated either way? They do, they can do whatever they want. I would like, as we do at our house, to institute a everyone hands their phones over at the door when we come to the practice facility policy for the Rockets, but, uh.

• 26:43Bill Simmons?

  Put them in a little cubby or something?

• 26:44Speaker 02

  How many phones does KD have to turn in?

• 26:47Speaker 01

  All of them? Does he get padded down?

• 26:50Bill Simmons?

  He has an iPhone. He has a Google Pixel. He, so they have a Brooklyn swap pick that could be super tasty. Right? That could end up being the number one pick in the draft for all we know. They also have an unprotected Phoenix pick. And Phoenix will, we'll get to them, but they'll, you know, they're gonna be somewhere between 35 and 45 wins. But they, they have capital. They have a couple expirings and things to do. They have Shepard, who I think would have interest. Van Vliet's not an expiring, so they could make some moves. I factored that into my over of 48 and a half. I think, uh, to me, this is a pretty, pretty easy over. I'd be really surprised if this team didn't get into the 49 to 53 range.

• 27:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, I can't come up with the scenario. I'm actually just confused by this number. They won 52 games last season. They're regular season merchants. I mean, Ime, even with the enormously confusing

• 27:46Speaker 02

  effort to replace the point guard position last year after FVV got hurt in the summer.

• 27:51Bill Simmons?

  And not getting DeSoomu or Kobe Wade, any, anything.

• 27:53Speaker 02

  All those guys were available and the super weird end of game stuff where it was like they were playing hot potato. I never understood it. I never understood why KD wasn't just the guy closing games out. Even with that, they won 52 games because the roster is mother effing good and it got better. So it's an over for me and I'll go ahead and just say it out loud. It's a lock. It's an over lock. This number was like 47 and a half until people started jumping into the market.

• 28:21Bill Simmons?

  I am locking it down too, Zach Lowe.

• 28:24Speaker 01

  The only, the only case against it is the offense with Fred Van Vliet back and a healthier roster and all that is still amounting to like, all right, there's eight on the shot clock. Can Alpern Shingun like snow plow to the rim and throw something up and we can rebound it? But I would like to make it universal. This is an official lock over for me. No doubt about it. 48 and a half is too low. The Rockets are gonna win a lot of games.

• 28:49Bill Simmons?

  And the other thing we mentioned earlier, but the West just isn't good enough.

• 28:52Speaker 02

  Right.

• 28:53Bill Simmons?

  And there, there's really only five teams I like in the West. So I, I just feel like if you look at the history of the league and the standings and basketball reference, anytime we have like a top heavy conference, it's usually gonna be in the high 40s and up.

• 29:06Speaker 01

  I will add the addendum to my only case against it being the offense looking that way is if it does look like, like that, I think there's like, is there some Ime Udoka noise 20 games into the season? What does that do? What does that do to the Rockets?

• 29:19Bill Simmons?

  Is it a hot seat, hot seat noise or crock pot noise?

• 29:22Speaker 01

  Uh, I can't remember which is worse. The crock pot is, is better, right? For the coach, it's simmering for a longer.

• 29:28Bill Simmons?

  The crock pot, it's simmering for a little bit.

• 29:29Speaker 01

  I think hot seat noise, but I don't think that's gonna happen. I think they're gonna be an elite defensive team, an elite rebounding team and a good enough offensive team. So that's where I'm at. Lock it up.

• 29:37Bill Simmons?

  Kevin Durant's on this team. His teams never have coaching issues. Dallas Mavericks, they're over under is 33 and a half.

• 29:46Bill Simmons?

  They're plus 250 for the playoffs, plus 135 for the play-in house. Their 2027 draft pick goes to Charlotte unless it falls into the top two, which is conceivable because they could be in the four to 10 range, win the lottery or finish second and get to keep the pick. They have a new coach named Dusty May. We'll go into college stuff in a second. They were 26 and 56 last year. They were seven and 23 in their last 30. The big question, Zach Lowe, what if Cooper Flag becomes the greatest, started the year at 19-year-old NBA player we've ever had? For just that season?

• 30:28Speaker 01

  Yeah, this was one of the toughest, this was one of the toughest lines for me. And you know, Mahoney and I were talking about this team yesterday. We said, but like Kyrie's back. He looks, he looks very good in the, in his one preseason game that I've seen him play.

• 30:43Speaker 01

  One would assume there'll be some rust coming off an ACL. Maybe they'll, they'll give him days off now and then, but still.

• 30:48Bill Simmons?

  It's been 18 months since the ACL though, or maybe even 19 months. Yeah. So he might be a hundred percent.

• 30:54Speaker 01

  If they, if they have two of the top 25 players in the league, is that not grounds for an over all on its own? And is it just, everything after that is just over complicating a discussion? Because I do think Cooper Flag is going to be that this season. He keeps growing. I guess he'll shoot better. He's just an awesome, awesome basketball player. The context of this roster is a little better for him with Kyrie around to take some of the ball handling load to be an elite, elite, elite off-ball shooter when Flag has the ball. The rest of it's a little mucky. I'd feel really, really good if like I knew anything about Derek Lively's prognosis at all. And I, I don't, but that, the case for the over is just, is it just as simple as two of the top 25 guys play on one team? That's generally like a 500 team.

• 31:39Bill Simmons?

  And even beyond that, if you look at the 24 Mavs blueprint that made the finals, two elite offensive players, some fun role players. And just, just kind of in, in games every night and then able to take stuff in the last five minutes. It feels like a plant in me house. It feels like an easy two for one or three for one trade partner because you look at all the stuff they have, like, you know, Mores Johnson's going to be, I think, good right away for them. They still have PJ Washington. They still have Najee Marcell. They got Aldama. They rolled the dice with Rishashay. They have Max Christie. They have a lot of wings.

• 32:15Speaker 01

  They do.

• 32:16Bill Simmons?

  They have two centers. And if Kyrie plays 70 games, you know, I, I find it hard to believe they're not going to win 34, but it comes back to flag because he was 23, 7 and 5 last year. And if you're just talking about best guys heading into a 19 year old season, it's basically Luca and LeBron and Wemby are the three that put up like pretty crazy stats when they were teenagers for at least half the year. So if he's 27, 7 and 7 this year, basically LeBron season, which I think is possible.

• 32:46Speaker 01

  You said 27 points a game?

• 32:48Bill Simmons?

  He's 23 last year.

• 32:49Speaker 01

  My goodness. Yeah, but I mean, that was end of season 50 piece nonsense.

• 32:55Bill Simmons?

  He's gonna have the ball a bunch. Alright, well, let's give him 25, 7 and 7.

• 32:58Speaker 01

  That makes me feel better.

• 32:59Bill Simmons?

  Um, and I don't know why they would necessarily tank because there's, there's no tanking in the same way. And if anything, they want to be in the four to 10 range. So why wouldn't this be an over?

• 33:10Speaker 01

  I was super relieved to hear Zach say that this number gave him a hard time because this is exactly the way.

• 33:16Bill Simmons?

  I changed my pick five times.

• 33:17Speaker 01

  Um, I think that Dusty May doesn't want to show up and they didn't hire Dusty May to come in and lose games, right? They're going to try and win and there's too many, they're too deep. There's too many professional basketball players. Now the.

• 33:32Bill Simmons?

  Well, not, not only too deep, but they have a guy who's going to really give a shit every night in Cooper flag.

• 33:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 33:37Bill Simmons?

  He's at, at the stage and he just wants to prove that he's really good at basketball night after night.

• 33:41Speaker 01

  And isn't the, the version of Kyrie that's in Kyrie's own best interest, the version that is helping set up Cooper to be the best version of Cooper? The guy that is a tremendous facilitator, a leader, right?

• 33:55Bill Simmons?

  Well, you mentioned this on the pod yesterday with Mahoney. This team could barely get into an offense. They, they, for the first two months of the season, they were using flag almost to just like, take all your lumps now. It'll all pay off for you down the road. And now they have like a real guy who will be able to dribble the ball up and get into sets and all kinds of things. And this, I gotta say, I'm kind of excited to watch them too. I want to see flag and Kyrie together. Uh, I want to mention the college coach curse though.

• 34:24Speaker 01

  Uh oh.

• 34:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Last really good, successful, I came in right away and was good at coaching was Brad Stevens. And that was 2013 where he just came in, it was like, oh, this guy has it. Donovan came in and took over an experienced OKC team.

• 34:40Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 34:42Bill Simmons?

  That was 2015 and Quinn Snyder came in in 2014 and did okay. But we've also had John Calipari. We had Rick Pitino. We had Tim Floyd. We had your guy, Leonard Hamilton.

• 34:52Speaker 01

  Oh, man.

• 34:53Bill Simmons?

  Who I think was the worst Wizards coach of your lifetime and mine since I've known you.

• 34:57Speaker 01

  It's not on him.

• 34:58Bill Simmons?

  Lon Kruger, Mike Montgomery. We had Mike Dunlap going from Loyola Marymount to the Bobcats. Fred Hoiberg, the immortal Fred. And we had John Beeline, who was our last college to pro coach in 2019. This has not happened for seven years and there's a reason for it because this league's really good and it's really deep and there's a lot of talent. And it's always good to have, like you'd much, much rather have like a Sean Sweeney who's been in the war, who's gone against all these dudes, who has a reservoir of other people. And, you know, to just come in blind to this, Zach, what are, what are you hearing on this?

• 35:34Speaker 01

  I think, you know, the buzz on Dusty May is all good. There is a learning curve, no question about it. They drafted one of his players in Merez Johnson Jr. It's not my biggest concern. I think a coach is a coach is a coach. I mean, you're going back way, way back with some of those names that, that failed transitioning to the NBA. It has been a while since John Beeline. Remember the story about John Beeline calling his, naming his plays after animals and the, and the players laughing at that?

• 35:59Bill Simmons?

  I love that. Yeah.

• 36:00Speaker 01

  Zebra, zebra, panda bear. Uh, I don't worry about the Dusty May factor. I worry about Derek Lively and I worry about the, the, a lot of the supporting cast you mentioned I like a lot. A lot of them play more or less the same position.

• 36:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 36:14Speaker 01

  And the shooting is iffy. And just like, we like the top two guys a lot. The drop off to the third best guy on the team is like pretty severe. And so that's the, that's the downside of all the depth is like, who's the third guy? Uh, I think this is actually a really, really tough line. I, I, I was a little bit surprised how much I struggled with it.

• 36:34Bill Simmons?

  So where'd you go?

• 36:36Speaker 01

  I'm gonna, I think zag, um, from you guys and go under by this teeniest, teeniest, teeniest of hairs. Uh, I don't feel good about it. I wouldn't bet it, uh, 33 and a half. It feels, it feels low to go under. Uh, you, I think you actually nailed the tanking incentive. I think they actually are incentivized not to tank to try to get their pick into the best possible position to be the one or two pick and keep it. But I think I just have to hedge against some possibility of a Kyrie sell high trade to a contender at some point in the season. I don't know if that'll happen. I don't think there's any plans to do it currently. It just feels like something that's going to be potentially in the ether. So I gotta hedge against that. I'll take the under.

• 37:16Bill Simmons?

  What do you think Patrick Dumont wants to do? But as he's assessed this and analyzed it?

• 37:22Speaker 01

  One of the more awkward looking owners to ever just populate the NBA, sit in courtside.

• 37:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 37:27Speaker 01

  I was proud of him for giving an, an interview, I think to the Athletic this week in which he just did, did not embarrass himself. I thought that was a step in the right direction for him.

• 37:35Bill Simmons?

  It's always good when somebody running a team, you're psyched that they didn't embarrass themselves.

• 37:39Speaker 01

  But I, I, I don't feel great about this pick. I couldn't be higher on Cooper flag. I like a lot of the fringe moves they made in the off season. I still am going to take the under. I don't feel good about them.

• 37:49Bill Simmons?

  House. Oh, don't change your pick. Don't be a coward.

• 37:52Speaker 01

  I already wrote it down. It's an over. I'm going to play, I'm not going to say that this, this, this, this, this, it's so close, but 34 wins is attainable.

• 38:02Bill Simmons?

  I am a slight over because, uh, I think Kyrie is incentivized to have a really good season. He has a player option next year for 42. But if he plays well this season, that could end up being high 40s, maybe even low 50s for two years. And he hasn't played basketball in a year and a half. I like the stuff I've heard about him. Um, it seems like his head's in a good spot. And I think it's going to be really fun to watch him in flag. But that, the big thing to me, this is a bet on flag. I just think this guy has a chance to be really special. And the history of the league is if somebody's really special, even, even at a young age, they're going to start dragging into some wins. And that's the difference between 30 and 35. I have them in the mid 30s. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. We are spending this two-part

• 38:47Bill Simmons?

  extravaganza trying to figure out what we actually believe with this NBA season. Who's winning the title? Who's the best MVP pick? Which teams are going over? Which teams are going under? Which predictions are we going to pretend we never made by February? FanDuel has a reward stack built exactly for all of these questions and thoughts. You get a stack of rewards to use on NBA futures. So while we're sitting here and talking to ourselves into teams and out of teams for the rest of the show, you can make your future picks along with us on FanDuel. You can trust us. You can put your reward stack to work on NBA futures with FanDuel. So check it out in the FanDuel app. Make this your most rewarding season ever. 21 plus select states or 18 plus DC or Wyoming. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.

• 39:32Bill Simmons?

  Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. A team everyone's too high on, the Memphis Grizzlies. Over 30 and a half, playoffs plus 420, playing plus 200. They do not, oh, they have a, their own pick plus the second best first of Utah, Minnesota and Cleveland. They were 25, 57 last year, but they were 7 and 33 in the last 40. And, uh, the big question, Joe House, because Zach and I have already talked about this team on our podcast. Is everyone too high on this team? Is the bandwagon too filled? All the basketball pod people, all the nerds, this has just become a sexy,

• 40:17Bill Simmons?

  sexy, sexy lottery team, basically. What do you think?

• 40:21Speaker 01

  So the market reflects the sentiment that you're sharing. This was in the 28 and a half range.

• 40:27Bill Simmons?

  It went up two wins, Zach Lowe.

• 40:28Speaker 01

  It's all the way up to 30 and a half. And I think we've reached peak market on this team because I, I look at this roster, I know what they're going to do, which is they, they have a roster that is going to play hard as hell and they are going to try and win all of their home games because they, Memphis and Utah, you know, very quietly under the radar because they were tanking the last couple of years. Tremendous home court advantages. The, the fans in those two cities are really, you know, passionate and do, the, the team does, responds to it, um, year over year.

• 41:02Bill Simmons?

  You're just taunting Russell Westbrook right now.

• 41:03Speaker 01

  Um, I just don't know if I can get there, even with all of the proper enthusiasm for Boozer. How is this team going to score? And is Zach Eadie going to finally play 65 games?

• 41:21Bill Simmons?

  So he's the swing guy.

• 41:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 41:23Bill Simmons?

  If he plays 20 games, this is an under. If he plays 65 games, I think it's an over.

• 41:27Speaker 01

  Right.

• 41:28Bill Simmons?

  Um, West playoff locks for me. Zach, OKC, San Antonio, Denver, Minnesota and Houston. And then we'll have a Pacific team TBD. And there's this next group here where we're going to have two playoff teams from this group. It's going to be, let's say the Lakers are the Pacific team. Phoenix, Dallas, Portland, Golden State, Memphis and Utah. We will have two playoff teams out of that group.

• 41:53Bill Simmons?

  My guess is Memphis is gonna play hard and be frisky for a while before they decide what to do.

• 42:00Bill Simmons?

  But I think the dudes they have on this team are all gonna give a shit. Even like I talked, I went on a group chat two weeks ago and I was talking like, they just kinda ended up with Jeremy Grant. And you go, oh, man, Jeremy Grant, bad contract. It's like, he averaged 19 a game last year. He's a real player. They turned Caldwell Pope into Jeremy Grant. That's an upgrade. They added Cam Boozer, who's gonna be 19 and 10 every night. Who can, you can run offense through him. You can go to him in crunch time. They added Isaiah Stewart for basically nothing. They're gonna have size, toughness. I don't love the point guards, obviously, because they really don't necessarily have a starting point guard. They have Ty Jerome and Pippen.

• 42:37Bill Simmons?

  But there's a toughness and a grit grind, old school, throwback feel that I just, I got seduced by. So for me, it's an over 30 and a half. What do you, what do you have, Zach?

• 42:49Speaker 01

  I would, I'd like to apologize for, I think, contributing to the start of the Memphis Grizzlies hype train, if not actually starting it like two months ago by saying, when it was 28 and a half, I, I would just absolutely hammer the over. I think this team is gonna be.

• 43:03Bill Simmons?

  You're zagging on your zig?

• 43:05Speaker 01

  Not, I'm not, I'm zagging, I think.

• 43:07Bill Simmons?

  You're zagging?

• 43:08Speaker 01

  Interview with you. They're, they're like 18 deep. They had to wave guys like farewell, D'Angelo Russell to just, just get the roster in order. They're gonna be super annoying to play against. Edie is a complete game changer when he plays. I don't know when he'll play. I couldn't be higher on Cam Boozer as like an immediate win now, high impact rookie.

• 43:30Bill Simmons?

  He was the guy I knew you were gonna love heading into the, heading into the draft. He's, he's a total Zach Lowe guy.

• 43:36Speaker 01

  And then I watched their first couple of preseason games, including a win over the Hawks. And I was like, ooh. There really is just like a lot of Ty Jerome happening. And when there's a lot of Ty Jerome happening, it's a lot of like floater. Floater on the way down, leaning floater, tilting floater. And they go in at a crazy rate, at least until the playoffs, because Ty Jerome is really good. But you nailed the shot creation issue from the perimeter that I think they're gonna run into. And just like, is there a top 50 player? In the NBA on the team. I think Boozer and Edie, like, like one of them being available all the time, it could be, could be a facsimile of that. But you know what? Sometimes you gotta own your own words. I just feel like they're gonna be deep and annoying and have a good home court advantage.

• 44:18Speaker 01

  And they're gonna make up for a lot of these deficits in, in different ways. I like Eastolo as a coach. Fuck it. Over. 30 and a half, over. Fuck it. What, what do I have to lose? Nothing.

• 44:28Bill Simmons?

  Zach Lowe, over. Bill Simmons, over. Joe House?

• 44:33Speaker 02

  I'm not going against Verno. I can't do it. Verno and Memphis deserve a team.

• 44:38Bill Simmons?

  What kind of analysis is that?

• 44:40Speaker 02

  Well, you, I, I.

• 44:41Bill Simmons?

  I'm not going against Verno as your analysis?

• 44:43Speaker 02

  I offered my opinion at the top. I mentioned the home court advantage. I mentioned the depth and, and that they, I think, role, identity wise, are a team that I solo once. This is like the version of, of, you know, roster construction. And you guys mentioned some of the crucial additions.

• 45:01Bill Simmons?

  I like the Quentin Post addition, just as a 10th man.

• 45:04Speaker 02

  Right.

• 45:04Bill Simmons?

  And if Lopez gives them anything.

• 45:06Speaker 01

  And they, they have prepared pretty, as well as you could possibly prepare for like, all right, Edie's probably gonna miss 30 games and play 22 minutes a game when he plays. Let's stock up on big guys. Boozer can play some five for them. I, I think we are a little over our skis, but I will still, take the over. And I do, I do think it's worth asking, like, what does an over mean for Chris Vernon's legacy? If we're gonna talk about legacy talk, I mean, what's Verno's legacy to this point?

• 45:31Bill Simmons?

  What, what are his 25 job ranchers he's gonna need to pay right now mean for his legacy? Listen, if we had the old tanking roles, this would be an under for me, just point blank.

• 45:40Speaker 02

  Sure.

• 45:41Bill Simmons?

  I think the new tanking roles and the fact that being in the four to 10 is desirable and where you wanna be means all these teams are gonna give a shit. For a month and a half longer than they would have. So it's an over. I have a bonus question for you. Top five 2027 teams most likely to be in a massive brawl this season. Here are my rankings. Number one, Memphis. Why? Number two, Phoenix.

• 46:07Speaker 02

  Oh, interesting.

• 46:08Bill Simmons?

  Dillon Brooks, just by himself, thanks to number two.

• 46:10Speaker 02

  And Bridges alongside of him?

• 46:12Bill Simmons?

  Number three, Detroit.

• 46:15Speaker 01

  Yep, still Ron Holland.

• 46:16Bill Simmons?

  Ron Holland is still there. And he's upset that he's not in the top two. Number four, Orlando. Kinda get dickish in games. They'll get it, they'll get a little feisty.

• 46:26Speaker 02

  I don't think they want that smoke, though.

• 46:28Bill Simmons?

  They're a little dickish. And then, uh, number five, Houston, just cuz Steven Adams is back.

• 46:33Speaker 01

  Draymond Green would like, would like a word here at some point. Just, just overlooked again, Draymond Green.

• 46:40Bill Simmons?

  Has Draymond been in a bench clearing brawl?

• 46:43Speaker 01

  Uh, I mean, if, bench clearing, no, but.

• 46:46Bill Simmons?

  Or like a five on five, like whatever happened in Charlotte Detroit last year. Has he been in his version of that? I feel like, no.

• 46:53Speaker 01

  I guess not.

• 46:53Bill Simmons?

  He usually kinda escalates it, but it never actually happens.

• 46:56Speaker 02

  Yeah, he escalates to the point where he gets kicked out. And so there isn't any, any actual risk to him getting punched right in the face.

• 47:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Memphis, though. I mean, Edie, Boozer, Grant, Coward and Jerome.

• 47:09Bill Simmons?

  That's just my kinda league pass team.

• 47:10Speaker 02

  Right, I get it.

• 47:11Bill Simmons?

  Isaiah Stewart, Wells, Spencer, who was really good last year, Pippen, Post, Gigi Jackson. I like this team. This is a fun league pass team.

• 47:22Speaker 02

  It's an over. All three of us over. Great.

• 47:24Bill Simmons?

  All right, last but not least, and last but least, the New Orleans Pelicans, 28 and a half is the over under. They are plus 650 for the playoffs, plus 310 for the play in. 2027 draft pick, kinda interesting. They could keep their pick, or they could just switch it from Milwaukee's pick, which I would recommend right now. And then Atlanta somehow ends up with the worst of those two. They have a new coach, Jamal Mosley. Who, uh, for some reason got snapped up right away after a very strange Orlando season. They were 26 and 56 last year. Notable, in their last 40 with nothing to play for, cuz they didn't have a pick, they went 17 and 23.

• 48:06Bill Simmons?

  Which could give us a little foreshadowing of, uh, of where the league is going with the non-tanking stuff. They're gonna start Missy, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones and Dejounte Murray. They're gonna bring Queen Bay, Matherin and Fears off the bench and the artist formerly known as Jordan Poole. My big question for you, Zach Lowe. Will Zion hold this team hostage for the entire 2020s? Is this just gonna be like a kidnapping show on Apple TV, but with a basketball player and a franchise?

• 48:38Speaker 01

  I mean, that would imply that he has the power and stature at this point in his career to hold any team hostage, other than by being, as you put it, in the Zion zone where he's.

• 48:48Bill Simmons?

  That's where I wanted to get to.

• 48:49Speaker 01

  Too good to trade or, or too risky for a team, too good to trade from New Orleans perspective, too risky to trade for, for another team.

• 48:55Bill Simmons?

  Bermuda Triangle of NBA. It's the Zion zone. We can't give you up and nobody's offering anything for you. What do we do?

• 49:02Speaker 01

  He only has one more non-guaranteed year, partially guaranteed year left on his contract. So it can't, it can't last that long. And I, I do think, I, I don't know. I like literally have no idea what's gonna happen with Zion. If he's just by inertia, gonna be on the Pelicans on like a $30 million a year, a year deal after this one expires. I have absolutely no idea what's gonna happen to him. I tried to find like what pseudo contender actually makes sense as a, like, this guy is a mid-season trade acquisition for us. Or is it not a pseudo contender? Is it like a middle of nowhere, going nowhere, middle of the road team that's just like, screw it, we'll get, I have absolutely no idea.

• 49:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Or, I theorized two weeks ago that he would be the greatest six man of all time for the 2027 playoffs. You just get him, get him for eight minutes and a half, just come in, we're gonna run our entire offense through and fuck the other team up, and then you're gonna sit.

• 49:52Speaker 02

  The, the incredible thing with him last season, in addition to him playing 62 games last season, which is quite incredible. How infrequently he shoots from the mid-range and three. The numbers are astonishing. All he does is, he's a 60% shooter cuz he just goes to the rim and goes to the rim and gets to the paint and goes to the rim. That feels pretty goddamn valuable in the modern NBA, this iteration of the NBA. If you thought you could get 60 games from him, I think there's a bunch of teams that would be interested. And the price should be right.

• 50:29Bill Simmons?

  It's decent, like 40 million. That's movable.

• 50:32Speaker 01

  You do have to send out real stuff just because of salary alone, in most cases anyway. If you're, if you're a contender, if you're a good team, you're probably gonna have to send out good players to get him. And, you know, part of the first half of this season will be like, do we have any faith that his durability last year was a real thing, or was it a mirage?

• 50:52Bill Simmons?

  I do not. We, this is our, uh, I don't know if you guys wanna celebrate in any way, but it's our 25th New Orleans Hornets season. Year 25.

• 51:03Speaker 02

  The Hornets Pelicans?

• 51:05Bill Simmons?

  When, when they started as the New Orleans Hornets, when they moved there.

• 51:08Speaker 02

  Got it.

• 51:08Speaker 01

  Can we take a, can we take a Spotify Ringer road trip to New Orleans for like a good two game home stand at some point?

• 51:14Bill Simmons?

  Tickets are available.

• 51:15Speaker 01

  Go to Harrah's, just eat some food.

• 51:17Bill Simmons?

  Paris is one of my favorite places on the earth. I love going to New Orleans.

• 51:20Speaker 01

  What is the case against doing this in like a, you know, for me, for me in the Northeast for Houston, on the East Coast? Let's go somewhere warm in December for a couple of games, all gather. What's the case against it?

• 51:30Bill Simmons?

  Sounds, sounds wonderful.

• 51:31Speaker 02

  Crab ball down in New Orleans.

• 51:32Bill Simmons?

  Would you like to guess how many playoff series wins they've had since they became the New Orleans Hornets in the 02, 03 season?

• 51:39Speaker 01

  I will go with two.

• 51:41Speaker 02

  I feel, I agree. It's under five.

• 51:44Bill Simmons?

  It's two.

• 51:44Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 51:45Speaker 01

  Yeah. I can, I know which ones they are. So that, two.

• 51:48Bill Simmons?

  My big fear with this team, other than the new tanking roles.

• 51:53Speaker 01

  Your big, you have one big fear?

• 51:55Bill Simmons?

  And the organization and the medical staff and the ownership.

• 51:59Speaker 01

  Other than that.

• 51:59Bill Simmons?

  Their franchise guy, I have no idea if he's gonna play 60 games. This is just, everybody on this team is in the trade machine at all times. And that's always a weird vibe for, like, I guess, Fears would not be in the trade machine, maybe, and Queen. And those are their two keepers. And then I'm prepared for anything else with any other guy to have on the team.

• 52:17Speaker 01

  And also Deandre Jordan, who's just, I think he signed a seven-year deal in the offseason.

• 52:22Bill Simmons?

  Because of the, Joe Dumars misunderstood the rules and then claimed afterwards that he didn't. So, uh, and I have this email from Alex in Florida, who.

• 52:35Bill Simmons?

  Wants to know why we assume the NBA and tanking rules will solve tanking. Because teams will want to be in that four to 10 zone. And New Orleans is one of the teams I wonder, are we going to have like a logjam of teams that want to be four to 10? That's seven spots, but we might have 11 teams jockeying to be in those seven spots. Once we get to, uh, to March. Anyway, lottery level teams. If we go Sacramento, Dallas, New Orleans, Clippers, Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Chicago. That's seven. There's three other teams that might just say, oh, we had a couple of injuries. Fuck it. Right? Like Charlotte's an example. Charlotte's already had a couple hamstring calf things.

• 53:16Bill Simmons?

  They could start out slow. Maybe they have one more injury in December and you know, they're 28 and 40 with 14 games to go and they might just say, fuck it. So just trying to factor that in with a team like New Orleans that does seem so poorly run to begin with.

• 53:35Bill Simmons?

  I don't know what to do. Uh, Zach, what do you have for this?

• 53:38Speaker 01

  I, I will add to that, that again, I think it's if a team has a real chance at a play in, I, I, it would be pretty unusual for them not to at least try. And the new tanking rules also give Adam Silver even more latitude or make it clear that like, he's going to bring the hammer down on suspicious crap like, oh, you took this guy out in the third quarter after he was healthy. This is a 28 and a half. When I first saw this weeks and weeks ago, I thought, well, that's going to be an over like they just have too much talent on this team. The wing combination of Herb Jones and Trey Murphy, that's a legit starting two, three, three, four, whatever on a good team. I am going to go under because I just think there are too many questions about who's going to be on the team long-term.

• 54:22Speaker 01

  Too many guys who are just defined by the need to have the basketball at all times and don't really know how to function without it. And, um, I mentioned the stat that I like to look at, you know, they played much better with Dejounte Murray when he came back briefly last year. That I think they had a plus one and a half net rating, which for a 26 win team is a real thing. Then I went back and looked like, let's see who they played when Dejounte Murray was available. And it was mostly crapola. And to that point, this team was, let me find them. Nine and 45 against 500 or over teams last year and 17 and 11 against below 500 teams. I am going to, despite the fact that there's a lot of raw talent here, more than should be for a 29 win team, I'm going to go under.

• 55:07Speaker 02

  It's an under for me as well. Um, two observations. If there's any franchise in the entire NBA who unintentionally fucks up and find themselves in the relegation zone. This was a lead candidate. Like they don't have to try to tank. They don't have to do anything nefarious. They just have to be who they are. Oopsie. We're one of the three words.

• 55:29Bill Simmons?

  There were new rules this year?

• 55:31Speaker 02

  Yeah. Um, the Jamal Mosley hiring is so curious. He, I think would be an appropriate hire for culture setter, except for what culture are you trying to set with, with this group of guys? Five of these guys make sense, more sense on, on teams other than this team.

• 55:52Bill Simmons?

  It's an under for me as well, because this team breaks one of my many rules. If at least four of the guys in your nine man rotation would openly welcome a trade. That makes me nervous.

• 56:06Bill Simmons?

  Like if he true serumed, I don't know, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Dejounte Murray. And it may be even Zion and probably Ben Matheran, who just signed there and is already like, I hope they trade me.

• 56:21Bill Simmons?

  I just feel like this is not a long-term home for a lot of these guys. I also have the 2027 can't stay out of their own way team rankings.

• 56:30Speaker 01

  Wow. You really can't prepare. A lot of different rankings here.

• 56:32Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Sacramento one. I know you're feuding with Sacramento Zach, but they're unfortunately they're one. I have New Orleans two and I have Milwaukee three. And I think that has to be the top three. And if you're going to say there's a couple of teams lurking. I would have Brooklyn and I would have Golden State.

• 56:50Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 56:51Speaker 02

  Dude, but you're just naming bad teams. That's all you're doing.

• 56:54Bill Simmons?

  Not naming bad teams as much as teams that

• 56:58Bill Simmons?

  I just, they just can't stay out of their own way. Like Golden State just couldn't resist rolling another bite of the Porzingis apple.

• 57:05Speaker 01

  Can't figure out how to.

• 57:05Bill Simmons?

  They had to do it. Another 20 million for Porzingis to the point where they had to have a story come out this week about, it actually wasn't about Porzingis as much as the trade exception number for the contract.

• 57:17Speaker 01

  It's an asset.

• 57:17Bill Simmons?

  Really? That's why, that's why you signed Porzingis? Cause it was a $20 million trade asset?

• 57:21Speaker 01

  He's not going to play anybody. It's amazing. It's amazing. That all it took was a coaching change and more importantly, a managerial change. And the Dallas Mavericks who traded Luka Doncic in the dead of night are just out of this category.

• 57:34Bill Simmons?

  Right. They come to GM.

• 57:36Speaker 01

  Mike Smith comes in. They're out of this category. They, they are the ultimate god in their own way. They ran into a wall that they constructed on their, of their own and just ran headfirst into it.

• 57:44Speaker 02

  Cause the league gave them the first fucking overall pick with Cooper flying.

• 57:49Bill Simmons?

  That makes Zach uncomfortable.

• 57:50Speaker 02

  I mean, let's not.

• 57:51Speaker 01

  No, I'm not uncomfortable. I was there.

• 57:54Speaker 02

  Let's not sugarcoat it for Christ sakes.

• 57:56Bill Simmons?

  Well, we're all under on the Pelicans. And that brings us to the end of whatever that division is called.

• 58:02Speaker 01

  Can I, can I interject as we get to the end? I just want to note, I'm keeping score here. I might have to start zogging more. Five teams in, we only have one disagreement and it's me going under on the Mavericks. I think I'm going to have to start zogging it up.

• 58:16Bill Simmons?

  I would say that that I thought was the easiest division of the six. For me.

• 58:21Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 58:21Bill Simmons?

  I think it's going to get harder and you're about to find out right after this break. So the NBA is so close to being back. Fando, as you covered all season long, I want to walk you through how I would have potentially used the Fando NBA futures reward stack. All right. So there, there's five profit boost tokens. You have the advanced to X playoff round. I would, I would use the Pacers probably for that to make the, make the final eight, because I think the odds are pretty good on that. You could also just use San Antonio or OKC to make the conference finals. Regular season wins. You can pick any regular season wins bet you want.

• 59:04Bill Simmons?

  I would probably lean toward OKC, just getting into, you know, 62 and 20 range and you're good with that. Make miss playoffs. You can pick a make miss playoff bets. I like the Pacers for that one too. Division winners, pick any team to win their division. It's gotta be the Lakers. They have the easiest path for the Pacific division. If Luca gets healthy. And then last but not least, pick any finals win bet. So for something like this, keep it simple. Take OKC or San Antonio, whoever, whoever you think is going to win, or take last year's champs, the Knicks. Put them all together and knock yourself out. We have an amazing NBA season ahead. Fando, as you covered right now all season long. Listen to all of our future picks and get in on the action yourself before the PBT pack expires.

• 59:48Bill Simmons?

  End of the day, Sunday, October 18th. We're back and we're at a terrible pace. My fault. I had, who, who did I have? Dan Quinn organizing the rundown?

• 59:58Speaker 02

  What are you talking about? We're at a great pace. We started this whole goddamn show with how much America is dying for NBA basketball. And where you're sitting right here.

• 1:00:07Bill Simmons?

  Giving them basketball.

• 1:00:08Speaker 02

  Two of the greats and one big dummy giving America basketball.

• 1:00:11Bill Simmons?

  All right. Well, we're, that was the most interesting division of the three. We're going to the Northwest, Oklahoma City. 61 and a half is the over. For the one seed there, minus one 10 house, a bet that I have in bold. Because I do think they will be the one seed. They were 64 and 18 last year. Plus 130 conference. Plus 240 for the title. They lost Lou Dort, Isaiah Joe.

• 1:00:35Bill Simmons?

  And Aaron Wiggins. And they added a Day Mara.

• 1:00:40Bill Simmons?

  A Di Mara? A Day Mara? A Di? I'm going to screw that up all season. I look forward to that. A Di Mara. I'm just going to call Mara or the tall guy and Bennett Sturts. And, uh,

• 1:00:55Bill Simmons?

  all right. The big question. Was last year just a crazy lightning in a bottle aberration? Lost to the Spurs? Or is there a Wemby kryptonite issue with this team? Zach Low.

• 1:01:07Speaker 01

  Uh, I think somewhere in between. I mean, Wemby is going to be kryptonite for pretty much every offense in the NBA. One thing that would help, uh, defang that kryptonite would be to have all your secondary ball handlers healthy. And they did not have AJ Mitchell or Jalen Williams healthy for that series. So a little bit of both. I think, look, there, I think they played 12 times last year and it was eight, four Spurs. That's a real thing at that point. There's no question about it. It's the best rivalry in the NBA. It's going to be even more interesting this season with particularly like, I don't think they played till mid-December, which is like, why? Why do I have to wait so long? What? I, I can't wait to see Chet Holmgren's response to seeing Wemby in his face again. I think it's going to be awesome, but I think it's a little bit of both, but, um,

• 1:01:52Speaker 01

  I would be a little more optimistic than just saying straight up, uh, Wemby is the kryptonite and that's the end of the story.

• 1:01:58Bill Simmons?

  I agree with Zach Lowe and I would even go further. I think last year was just a crazy aberration. They didn't have their second best player as one of the best 15 guys in the league, healthy, really for most of the season. House, they were 72 and 18 heading into the San Antonio series.

• 1:02:14Bill Simmons?

  They're over under 61 and a half. I don't see how they lose 20 games or more this season, even with the new tanking rules. I just can't get there. We have Rocky III Chet. Spent in the gym with Duke.

• 1:02:26Speaker 01

  He put on two pounds.

• 1:02:27Bill Simmons?

  He put on two pounds?

• 1:02:29Speaker 01

  He put on two pounds.

• 1:02:30Bill Simmons?

  They have Hartenstein back. They have Mara. They have a healthy JDub. And I'm not that worried about the kryptonite thing. I went back over kryptonite teams in history. Like the Magic Lakers had the 86 Rockets. And then we're very fortunate when that team completely fell apart. Shaq Kobe Lakers sort of had Duncan Spurs. There were a couple of years there where Duncan could really take them toe to toe. Bird Celtics had the Pistons who they beat in 87, lost 88. Jokic Nuggets recently with Minnesota, I think was a kryptonite team.

• 1:03:03Speaker 01

  It's a good one.

• 1:03:04Bill Simmons?

  Uh, Duncan Spurs had that one Zbo Grizzlies era that just was Zbo and Gasol were just a terrible matchup for them. For a couple of years in a row. So this does happen.

• 1:03:15Speaker 01

  You didn't do MJ Pistons? I mean, they literally had the Jordan rules.

• 1:03:20Bill Simmons?

  I know, but he ended up kicking their ass and breaking up the team.

• 1:03:23Speaker 01

  It took a while. They, but they beat his ass.

• 1:03:25Bill Simmons?

  It's a good one. I mean, they just were a way better team.

• 1:03:27Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:03:28Bill Simmons?

  So, uh, I think OKC is going to be fine. I think they're the favorite. Um, and I'm pretty bullish on them. How about you, House?

• 1:03:35Speaker 01

  It's an over. It's a lock. I have no hesitation or reservation around it. Um, the aberration that you're describing is also to me just regular old NBA variance. Guys get hurt. It is this, you know, modern world of the NBA. And I do wonder to, one of the big theme observations Zach made at the top of the show. If all of the teams are playing hard and all of the, none, nobody's really incented to tank. Where are we going to find the rest for these guys? Because there have been now these, um, studies backing up the notion that the players are running more.

• 1:04:17Speaker 01

  That the running is more intense, that the, so we've been, yeah, we've been talking about this for a couple of years. We better be finding ways for these guys to, to get some rest, to go ahead and, and load manage. If we want the best versions of these teams to be available in the playoffs.

• 1:04:32Bill Simmons?

  Well, that's why they need Mara at starts. Sorber, we're going to have to see this year. Topich, Zach's guy.

• 1:04:37Speaker 01

  Great. Let's see them all.

• 1:04:39Bill Simmons?

  And then Jared McCain, who just fell into their laps last year, which was huge. Mitchell will be healthy. I just think they have a lot of options, looks, lineups. They can give guys nights off. How intrigued on a scale of one to 10, were you with the Mara highlights in the preseason, Zach?

• 1:04:54Speaker 01

  I, I did just the highlights. I, I, I watched a couple of their games and I was like, oh my God. I mean, look, it's preseason, right? But he's had multiple block on one end, dunk on the other end sequences that are like, okay, this guy's like, he's going to be something. He, he, he posted up a couple of switches and like easy peasy hooks. Like he's going to be able to play minutes for them. Um,

• 1:05:17Bill Simmons?

  He's, he's at least not a bust. I think we could just tell from the preseason. This guy will be something. And I don't know if he's going to be somebody who can play in the fourth quarter of a Spurs game four in San Antonio. But he's not nothing.

• 1:05:32Speaker 01

  Well, they shouldn't, if they're healthy, they will not need him to play a second against San Antonio in a playoff series. Unless he's so good that he has earned that time. The case for the under is, it's a huge number again. There is not going to be anyone tanking. Are they going to try to be careful with their best players? Um, and rest them more. And well, I mean, in JDub's case, even if they rest him, he'll still end up playing more than he did last year. And I think for both them and the Spurs, you have to think like, how much does either team care about getting the number one seed? And having game seven at home, the Spurs already beat Oklahoma City on the road in game seven. I don't know the answer to that, but I just say, and, and obviously they lost three key depth pieces. And one of them being a starter in Lou Dort.

• 1:06:17Speaker 01

  I'm not really worried about that. I think a full season of McCain is huge for them in that regard. I think Mitchell and McCain off the bench, I mean, they are going to go on like 20 to four runs. Against these opposing second units who are like, what's happening? These guys are like all-stars playing against us. I am going, uh, over on 61 and a half. I just think they're too good.

• 1:06:39Bill Simmons?

  I, so you're locking this?

• 1:06:40Speaker 01

  Yeah, I locked it.

• 1:06:41Bill Simmons?

  I couldn't lock it only because I don't know what 62 wins means in this new NBA where 25 to 28 teams are actually going to care most of the season. I didn't know how to factor it. Like if we were the old tanking roles, to me, this would be a 69 to 71 range team. I just don't know what to make of it.

• 1:06:59Speaker 01

  I'm less fearful because I just think they'll kick everybody's ass. Like there aren't any rosters that I'm worried about when I go through it.

• 1:07:05Bill Simmons?

  As you know, I love nothing more than going through preseason features, interviews and comments from star players. And interpreting them and making too much of them. I have like some of the SGA stuff. About, uh, about how much last year hurt. And looking at the championship ring and, you know, the, the, does seem like, uh, he's pissed off that basically they had a chance to go back to back. They didn't. The Knicks supplanted them as, you know, the team. San Antonio supplanted them as the sexy team in the West everyone wants to talk about. And I think he wants to get his, uh, take his corners back. It's a little Marlo season, season five-ish.

• 1:07:47Speaker 01

  They also must know on some level that, um, and this is nothing to take away anything they accomplished, but the Halliburton injury in game seven of that series is inevitably changes the way we all remember that series. And, and I think they, they know if we want to win, we want to win over everybody's best shot. And we kind of didn't get to do that.

• 1:08:09Bill Simmons?

  Minnesota, a lot of buzz on them and yet their over under keeps going the wrong way, House. It's down to 46 and a half. They are 27-1 for the title, minus 550 for the playoffs, 30 to one would be the one seed. They do not have their first round pick. It goes to either Utah or Memphis. 49 and 33 last year. They were 17 and 13 in their last 30 games. My big question to you. In May, you're either going to be right or wrong about LaMelo. And I don't have a question. It's just a comment. It's, it's now, you really have to pick sides on this one. This is not, you can't, I'm not just saying you, I'm saying everybody.

• 1:08:50Bill Simmons?

  This has now turned into the most fun, I'm on this side or I'm on this side with the trade, with what LaMelo is going to do with Minnesota, the whole thing. So where are you?

• 1:09:01Speaker 01

  I've never been a LaMelo guy. I don't think he's a serious basketball player. I think he is incredibly talented. I understand the flair with which he plays. I know why he's so appealing to a couple of generations of basketball fans younger than me. I just want none of it. I, I'm not interested in any aspect of it. There have been a lot of, um, smart people who've made the observations around the offensive engine he was for that Charlotte team last year. But he still commits turnovers, you know, inside of some of the advanced analytics at a rate that's, that's not really sustainable. But at the end of the day, there is no evidence that he's a winning basketball player.

• 1:09:46Speaker 01

  And so that's my verdict. And, and as a result, Minnesota's an under for me.

• 1:09:52Bill Simmons?

  Year seven for him. He's played 2100 minutes once in a season. He's never played in an actual playoff game. And yet Zach Lowe, he's never played with anyone like Anthony Edwards.

• 1:10:02Speaker 01

  Few have. You have. I, I, I would push back on the no evidence that he's a winning player just because Charlotte has always been way, way better when he's on the floor. And not in a fake way where like, oh, the bench sucks and the starters suck less. Uh, in a real way where like they're awesome on offense in particular and really crappy without him. Uh, I'm going over and I, this line is too low at 46 and a half. The two guards, Ant and LaMelo together, offensively Rudy is a top 10 defense all by himself. The floor seems pretty high if they're healthy. The bench worrisome and inexperienced, but you know, there's some upside there.

• 1:10:40Speaker 01

  And I don't know how much of you guys have caught in the preseason, one of my real actual, like, I'm taking this away in a real way and putting it in my pocket for the regular season. I think Jaden McDaniels is going to level up as a player, particularly on offense. And I just, I think 46 and a half is too low. So I will take the over and we have another disagreement finally.

• 1:10:59Bill Simmons?

  I was a slight over until I read this quote from Chris Finch on LaMelo Ball. He's always in a great mood, always comes in smiling. He and Anthony have a shared quality. They're really hard to stay mad at and they do some things that want to make you get mad. They have a reflective joy. We referred to ourselves as a moody team in the last couple of years at times and it probably got in our way. We've traded moodiness for giddiness.

• 1:11:27Bill Simmons?

  Coming over.

• 1:11:27Speaker 02

  Oh, joy.

• 1:11:28Bill Simmons?

  I, I actually think there, I think this number is two to three wins too low. They're gonna shoot a ton of threes. There's gonna be nights when it looks awful. There's gonna be nights when it seems like they could have beaten any team in NBA history. There's gonna be a real flair and happiness and joy to them as a regular season team. I have no idea what happens in the playoffs and I don't have high hopes, but I agree with what Zach said about McDaniels.

• 1:11:56Bill Simmons?

  Io, Shannon, Behringer, if they can actually get something out of him. The only thing I don't.

• 1:12:01Speaker 02

  Behringer, Behringer.

• 1:12:03Bill Simmons?

  Behringer, sorry. I call him Behringer, like Tom Behringer. The only thing I didn't like is Kaminga. And I know why they did it. The price was the price. I just don't think he's a winning basketball player. I don't like where he fits in with this. I don't think he's gonna have the ball enough and I don't see how the Kaminga piece of this works.

• 1:12:19Speaker 02

  Just to be clear, you, you think 40% of their starting lineup are losing basketball players and you're taking the over?

• 1:12:26Bill Simmons?

  I don't think LaMelo's a losing basketball player.

• 1:12:28Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:12:29Speaker 01

  I just want to be clear. I'm just.

• 1:12:30Bill Simmons?

  That's, Joe House said that. Joe House right over here said that.

• 1:12:33Speaker 02

  I feel like the record kind of supports it. It's like, he propelled Charlotte to great, okay.

• 1:12:39Bill Simmons?

  My issue with LaMelo is this. It's a durability thing. I talked about this when they made the trade. I don't trust that he can play 2,300 to 2,400 minutes, which I think, if you're gonna trade all the stuff they traded, and you're gonna rely on him the way they're gonna rely on him. I need you, I need to know you're playing 70 to 73 games and you're gonna play 30 minutes a game. And Charlotte, very smartly last year, pulled his minutes back and put him at 28.

• 1:13:04Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:13:05Bill Simmons?

  And.

• 1:13:05Speaker 02

  Agreed.

• 1:13:06Bill Simmons?

  Were basically treating him like they were on a cross-country drive. I'm losing my voice. They're on a cross-country drive, just going 60 miles an hour on the highway in the middle lane with him.

• 1:13:19Bill Simmons?

  When I think he wants to go in the left lane and I think he wants to floor it and he's gonna do that with Minnesota.

• 1:13:23Speaker 02

  He sure does. He does want to floor it.

• 1:13:25Bill Simmons?

  And I wonder.

• 1:13:25Speaker 02

  The good people of Minnesota look, they should have an alert for when he gets behind the wheel of the car.

• 1:13:30Bill Simmons?

  Literally, he's gonna floor it.

• 1:13:31Speaker 02

  Goddamn right he wants to floor it.

• 1:13:32Speaker 01

  And his car, I think his car takes up multiple lanes at the same time. So you can tell when it's LaMelo.

• 1:13:38Bill Simmons?

  But here's the thing. They have insurance for him if he misses 10 games.

• 1:13:43Speaker 02

  They do. I agree.

• 1:13:44Bill Simmons?

  And that's why, that, that made me comfortable with the over 46 and a half. I thought about locking it down, but I just want to see how this looks. And by the way, I get why they did the trade. I just didn't like it. I thought last year, I would have gotten rid of Randall. I would have kept Nas Reed. I thought last year they were injured.

• 1:14:00Speaker 02

  They were injured.

• 1:14:01Bill Simmons?

  They were a team that made two straight conference finals and I thought had a foundation of something. And I would have bet on McDaniels getting better and.

• 1:14:09Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:14:09Bill Simmons?

  I just would have gotten rid of Randall would have been my move.

• 1:14:12Speaker 02

  How many locks are we required to, to post?

• 1:14:14Bill Simmons?

  You can do as many as you want.

• 1:14:18Speaker 01

  I'm not ready to lock this one.

• 1:14:19Speaker 02

  Oh, I, I would, I would love to be on the other side of it, of, of a, of a Zach lock.

• 1:14:23Bill Simmons?

  So they got rid of Randall, Nas Reed and Mike Conley and they added LaMelo and Kaminga.

• 1:14:28Speaker 02

  Good, best of luck. That's.

• 1:14:30Bill Simmons?

  And hopefully McDaniels level up because of Randall and they added giddiness and happiness.

• 1:14:33Speaker 02

  McDaniels is sick. I love him.

• 1:14:35Speaker 01

  House, do you want to do a challenge lock? You locked the under, I locked the over?

• 1:14:39Speaker 02

  Well, it's just a, a bet between the two of us. Let's not lock. I don't want to lock anything with this. But you and I can have our own separate gentleman's Minnesota waiver. This, we'll come up with a fun name for it.

• 1:14:48Bill Simmons?

  I don't understand. Why did you turn down his lock challenge?

• 1:14:51Speaker 02

  Because I'm not locking an under for this team. The ceiling is high. They, what, what if it works? I'm not locking it. I mean, locks are precious.

• 1:14:58Bill Simmons?

  This team probably had no chance of beating San Antonio and OKC healthy in the playoffs the next couple of years. And at least they have changed the variance with the threes.

• 1:15:07Speaker 02

  I don't know why we're so certain of that. They, if, if Anthony Edwards was healthy.

• 1:15:10Bill Simmons?

  Not with the Randall thing.

• 1:15:11Speaker 02

  If Anthony Edwards was healthy, like what he does in terms of, you know, overcoming some of the shortfalls that we saw out of Randall, the, the Randall, Nas combo was a genuine frontline that could compete with.

• 1:15:27Bill Simmons?

  Banks of bodies.

• 1:15:27Speaker 02

  With San Antonio. They won 49 games last season and they got rid of those two big bodies and replaced them with, you know, Clowney McFarty Pants, the, uh, you know, who should be in an Uber at all times and, and, and, and, and Kaminga.

• 1:15:44Bill Simmons?

  Clowney McFarty Pants?

• 1:15:46Speaker 02

  And Kaminga.

• 1:15:49Speaker 02

  Good luck. That's all. Good luck.

• 1:15:51Bill Simmons?

  They had to.

• 1:15:51Speaker 01

  So you own locking under on a team.

• 1:15:54Bill Simmons?

  But you don't call him Clowney McFarty Pants?

• 1:15:55Speaker 01

  Who's nicknamed Clowney McFarty Pants?

• 1:15:58Speaker 02

  I don't like his game, but he, I mean, what if he goes off? What if Anthony Edwards unleashes him, unlocks him? It's possible.

• 1:16:05Speaker 01

  If we can get a, if we can get a Bill Simmons colonoscopy T-shirt made, can we get a Clowney McFarty Pants T-shirt made?

• 1:16:12Speaker 02

  With a picture of, of LaMelo? Sure. I bet, I bet it would work.

• 1:16:16Bill Simmons?

  Zach, do you think if they hadn't floated Randall's name in the trade deadline so egregiously and spun him into the funk that he went to after that, that this was salvageable for them? Or do you think they were dying to get off him regardless?

• 1:16:29Speaker 01

  I think they were ready to just move on to your point to, to a different vision of like, we need to do something that's our unique thing to have any chance and maybe this will be it.

• 1:16:39Bill Simmons?

  Well, they built a team to beat Denver and they did, but it didn't lead to make it the finals.

• 1:16:42Speaker 02

  I'm, I'm willing to acknowledge that Anthony Edwards could unleash him and he might start playing the, the first moment of his basketball career, some serious basketball. I'll acknowledge it. It's possible.

• 1:16:53Bill Simmons?

  I do think this will lead, this team will lead the league, not only this year, but all time historically. In most times, a guy makes a three, staggers away from the three-point line with a prance, has a teammate come over and then they double prance and stick their tongues out at each other. I think this is gonna be the league leader of all time. I'd say it happening three times a game.

• 1:17:16Speaker 01

  But particularly if LaMelo and Bones Highland are on the floor at the same time, just, they have, they, they have the most audacious and, and they are committed to them, three-point celebrations.

• 1:17:26Bill Simmons?

  You mean the rejuvenated Bones Highland?

• 1:17:29Speaker 01

  Yeah. I'm ready for the Bones. He was good last year.

• 1:17:31Bill Simmons?

  Their bench is kind of fun. If, if they can get anything from Tom Behringer, I think this would be, this would be great.

• 1:17:38Speaker 01

  Todd Benzinger?

• 1:17:39Bill Simmons?

  Right. All right. Two overs and an under for House. Denver Nuggets. Not even fun to talk about because you know Zach and I are both going over. Their over is 48 and a half. They're 54 and 28 last year.

• 1:17:52Speaker 02

  Got the shirt.

• 1:17:53Bill Simmons?

  Last four years, House, 54, 50, 57 and 53 for wins. And Vegas is saying those, those times are over. Nine to one for the division, 13-1 for the conference, 27-1 for the playoffs. Their first-rounder goes to OKC and it is top five protected. Zach Lowe, the big question.

• 1:18:13Bill Simmons?

  Is there a 2022 Warriors run lurking in the ether for these guys?

• 1:18:21Speaker 01

  The 2022 Warriors run was amazing and magical. And one of the things it required was a kind of injury forced gap year for Denver and the Clippers, who on paper were gonna be way better than, not way better, better than those Warriors teams. So if there's no gap year for Oklahoma City in San Antonio, I think the answer is unfortunately no, despite the fact that Jokic is Jokic.

• 1:18:43Bill Simmons?

  Sadly, that's my answer as well, House.

• 1:18:45Speaker 02

  Is there, there's no moves they can make now. They're, they have no more moves. They're right up against the second apron.

• 1:18:52Speaker 01

  Yeah. And they, they did acquire that 31 unprotected Cleveland pick, which I think they will try to do something with. It's just like, what, what salary are they attaching to that pick that has any positive value for another team to get them back something even better than that?

• 1:19:08Speaker 02

  We had this argument.

• 1:19:08Bill Simmons?

  Can I walk you through the 2022 Warriors scenario? Just so we have it.

• 1:19:14Bill Simmons?

  Three seed.

• 1:19:17Bill Simmons?

  They get OKC in round two. A team that I think they've looked pretty comfortable against over the years.

• 1:19:24Speaker 01

  And it played Wemby well too on the flip side.

• 1:19:26Bill Simmons?

  Minnesota somehow upset San Antonio or Houston. Somehow San Antonio loses in round two. So they only have to play one of OKC versus, or San Antonio and then they're able to get in there. And the big thing would be that Jokic, who was not healthy last year, who got hurt and who missed like 16 games. And when he came back, was not moving the same way he normally does, is just healthy. Last year, 65 games. He's had six straight top two MVP finishes. It is year 12 for him, basically. And they lost Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway, Bruce Brown. They added Demar DeRozan, Tyus Jones, Marvin Bagley. Who I thought was a sneaky one.

• 1:20:04Speaker 02

  He's serviceable. Don't, I mean, he was good in Washington.

• 1:20:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I think that's.

• 1:20:08Speaker 02

  He's serviceable.

• 1:20:08Bill Simmons?

  I'd rather see him out there than Zeke Najee. And they added Brazil from, uh, from the draft. And then, uh, they, they rejuvenated Kim Whitmore Island. They put electricity, electricity and island on Whitmore Island.

• 1:20:20Speaker 02

  Rooting for him.

• 1:20:21Bill Simmons?

  The most interesting piece was DeRozan. A guy Zach's probably written too many, if you had to regret one player you've probably written too many words on over the years, is it DeRozan or is it somebody else? He basically spans your entire writing career.

• 1:20:34Speaker 01

  Tobias Harris, maybe?

• 1:20:35Bill Simmons?

  Maybe Tobias, okay.

• 1:20:36Speaker 01

  Could be up there.

• 1:20:37Bill Simmons?

  He's first team all. I spent too many words on you.

• 1:20:40Speaker 01

  He, he's definitely first team. There's no question. He's unanimous first team.

• 1:20:44Bill Simmons?

  Does the DeRozan thing change anything for you?

• 1:20:47Speaker 01

  No. Um, I do think Alfred Diallo is worth a mention too, given how his defense has looked in the preseason. But I think, you know, DeRozan's fine. It'll be interesting to see how they use him. I just, you know, he's additive as a ball handler. I just don't know how that meshes with, with Jamal Murray and, and how they stagger all the minutes together. Defensively, he's obviously a liability and he just sort of compounds a, they don't shoot enough threes problem that has plagued Denver, although less so last year. But so I, Howard Beck picked him as a sneaky six man of the year candidate and I almost fell out of my chair. Uh, I, I don't, I don't see it.

• 1:21:22Bill Simmons?

  Is he drinking?

• 1:21:24Bill Simmons?

  The, the, uh, the DeRozan thing brings up something that's just, we have so many good players now and the league is so deep that we've entered this new era where guys like Demar DeRozan can just play 18 minutes a game and be a legitimate old school six man. Because that's how much talent we have. I am not going against Jokic.

• 1:21:44Speaker 02

  No.

• 1:21:44Bill Simmons?

  I just think he's 50 wins every year, uh, much like Tim Duncan back in the day, unless something egregious happens. I do wonder though.

• 1:21:54Bill Simmons?

  Is there a Jamal Murray move with this team during this season? Because they have the Jokic extension coming. There's trade partners for something like that? All over the league, including the Dallas Mavericks that we talked about earlier, where you could, Kyrie's at 39, Jamal's at 50. And if you're Dallas and Kyrie's like, I kind of want to be on one more good team. Now you flip that, you double down on Jamal Murray. Toronto was the other one I was looking at for this. Where, you know, they could you? The problem is they don't necessarily have the point guard to give back. But it is Jamal Murray, Canada. But I just, I wonder if they'd proactively, if they feel like they're not going to actually win the title,

• 1:22:39Bill Simmons?

  make a move during this season to try to prepare themselves for the Jokic contract would be my, my fear with the over. But I am going over. Any, anything under 50 is an automatic over for me with them.

• 1:22:53Speaker 01

  I, I agree with that. And I'm having a hard time divorcing my skepticism. I don't know. My dismay is probably overstating it. Choosing Christian Brown over Peyton Watson and not having that perspective in mind when you're sitting down, thinking about, okay, we got an amazing season out of Christian Brown. What does the next three years look like? And going through that decision making and fucking yourself so hard with Christian Brown? And making it so that there's no possible way, because you don't want to spend the money to, to keep Watson. And I think Peyton Watson's going to be incredible with Cleveland. I think it's an amazing situation for him. And I think that it, losing him is a, a material diminution of the ceiling of this Denver Nuggets team.

• 1:23:37Speaker 01

  Having said all that, it's an over for me over 48 and a half. That's not, but that's the problem I have. Like the front office, what we've gone through in terms of the coach swap stuff? And the rivalry between, you know, um, between Booth and, and, and Michael Malone that, that, you know, sabotaged that season. Like, what are we doing? You, you have an all time great with, with the Joker and you are fucking it up year after year after year. Still, it's an over, but you know, I don't like it. I don't like it. That's all.

• 1:24:08Bill Simmons?

  Zach, do you feel better about the Brown contract? After some of the contracts we saw this summer where there's this range of guys 20 to 25 million a year now? Like Pods just got 22 a year from the Warriors, right? That does seem like the range.

• 1:24:23Speaker 01

  Congrats.

• 1:24:24Bill Simmons?

  If you're a number four or number five starter and you're young and you can play minutes. That does seem like where we've landed with the range. Peyton Watson's 22 a year. Io God in the low twenties. And I wonder like, is the Brown contract that bad? He was hurt last year.

• 1:24:38Speaker 01

  Well, all of those guys were better than Christian Brown last year. So it needs, it requires a bounce back year. We don't really know what Christian Brown looks like. Not catching touchdown passes from Jokic for half of his points, but be that as may, I think he's a good player. It's a, it's, it's a negative contract right now, but it's easily rehabilitatable. Um, all right, are you sitting down? You are sitting down. I can see you. Uh, I'm going under on 48 and a half for the Nuggets. And no one loves Jokic more than I, I do. I have a lot of respect for the starting five that they've assembled. I'm going under because as I went through all my Western Conference picks,

• 1:25:20Speaker 01

  you, you can't, you, you've got to go under on some good teams. It just, for the math to work, it just has to work. And the counter to Jokic being healthy, potentially healthier than he was last year is I hate the bench. I have no faith in Aaron Gordon being healthy for a large portion of the season. I don't know what the cap on games of him is, and I don't know who backs him up now that I have any faith in. Uh, I worry that we just got the best Jamal Murray year and the healthiest Jamal Murray year that we're ever going to have. And I have to go under somewhere. I don't feel great going under 48 and a half on a, on a Denver team that's been a 50 win machine with Jokic. I just really don't like the backend of this roster and I worry about injuries and some minor aggression at the top other than Jokic.

• 1:26:03Speaker 01

  So I gotta go, I'm going under and I actually feel not terrible about it.

• 1:26:11Bill Simmons?

  I just feel sad.

• 1:26:12Speaker 01

  Well, it's the, the required. If you go over on Minnesota, the way that you did.

• 1:26:17Bill Simmons?

  Questioning my life.

• 1:26:17Speaker 01

  And you're going to see other teams I go, you, you could just see other teams I go over on that I feel pretty confident. I can't, I can't go over on everyone in the top six in the West. I'm not arguing with you.

• 1:26:27Bill Simmons?

  They only were one, one round last year. So they haven't played basketball since April, which makes me feel good with Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.

• 1:26:35Speaker 01

  And the Joker, honestly.

• 1:26:36Bill Simmons?

  I like the bench a little more than Zach. I, I also think they can add to the bench, especially in February, which we saw last year where there were a bunch of guys available late. And I just can't go under with Joker if he's healthy and motivated, which it seems like he is. But I feel sad. I feel deceived. I feel betrayed.

• 1:27:01Speaker 01

  Take it easy.

• 1:27:02Bill Simmons?

  That's strong.

• 1:27:05Bill Simmons?

  Portland Trail Blazers. By the way, that thing you said about how you had to go over on certain teams. I actually like added up all the wins and losses that I thought everyone was going to have in all the over unders and actually felt pretty good about going over on them. Cause there, there's a lot of teams I don't like.

• 1:27:19Speaker 01

  That means, that means we're going to just, that means we're going to disagree on some teams coming up. So let's go.

• 1:27:22Bill Simmons?

  Portland Trail Blazers, 41 and a half. Last year they were 42 and 40. Playoffs minus 185, playing plus 105. 80 to one for the title. They have new coach Mike Adnory, who is being paid by the month. Last 30 games last year, 18 and 12. The big question, because they lost Jeremy Grant and Mathias Tybalt. They added Ja Morant, Jeremy Sohan, Vic Crecci and a healthy Dame Lillard. And they have four point guards and two centers and a bunch of, I don't know what else. Sharp is hurt. But my big question, House, did they get too fucking weird with this team?

• 1:28:06Bill Simmons?

  Did they just go full weirdo in a way that, um, just was too weird?

• 1:28:11Speaker 01

  It's very weird. I don't, especially with the ownership change and.

• 1:28:17Bill Simmons?

  El Chepo?

• 1:28:18Speaker 01

  The uncertainty around how long they may remain in, in Portland. It's a very weird roster.

• 1:28:26Bill Simmons?

  I wrote down in my notes, it's like when we go out to dinner and you get really excited by different things on the menu and we order too many things. And you're like, oh, they have, they have an iceberg wedge? There's French onion soup?

• 1:28:40Speaker 01

  Good.

• 1:28:40Bill Simmons?

  Wait, they have oysters?

• 1:28:42Speaker 01

  Good.

• 1:28:42Bill Simmons?

  Oh, there's a seafood tower?

• 1:28:45Speaker 01

  Great.

• 1:28:46Bill Simmons?

  Wait, you have a, you have a porterhouse bone in special?

• 1:28:50Speaker 01

  This is where it goes sideways.

• 1:28:51Bill Simmons?

  And you just start ordering stuff.

• 1:28:53Speaker 01

  The porterhouse and the pasta.

• 1:28:54Bill Simmons?

  And then the entree comes and it's like, oh, I've, oh shit, we have one more course coming. And then you just regret it.

• 1:29:00Speaker 01

  It was a course too many.

• 1:29:01Bill Simmons?

  I wonder if Portland was like that, Zach, where they were like, oh yeah, we could get Dame Lillard and we could get Ja Morant.

• 1:29:07Speaker 01

  My wife refers to me as a, a panic order based really on one meal that we had in New York before a show. We're halfway through the meal. I was like, I just think I'm going to be hungry. Can we get an order of edamame dumplings to just, to just get us?

• 1:29:23Bill Simmons?

  That sounds delicious.

• 1:29:24Speaker 01

  Edamame, by the time the edamame dumplings came out, I was like, this was kind of a mistake. I don't know who the edamame dumplings, I, I don't know who the edamame dumplings are in this, in this case.

• 1:29:36Bill Simmons?

  Not Ja Morant. No, Ja Morant is the, let's get the lobster for the table.

• 1:29:40Speaker 01

  Yes, the lobster for the table.

• 1:29:42Bill Simmons?

  Oh wait, they didn't take, they didn't take it out of the shell? We all have to use the crunchies? Oh my God, it's all over me. You guys don't have bibs? I have lobster all over me. What's happening?

• 1:29:55Speaker 01

  Lobster for the table is magnificent, by the way. Have either of you guys, have either of you guys been approached to be the, uh, play by play announcer for the Blazers this year?

• 1:30:03Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm available. Oh, can I do it remotely? Well, they have a cheap owner, four point guards and a new coach on a one year deal. They, they have a Scoot Henderson situation that I do think he would have had trade value and interest around the league. And now they've just buried him to the point that somebody like Memphis could probably just steal him. You know, some team that could be like, I have some point guard minute, Brooklyn.

• 1:30:30Speaker 01

  Why didn't they do that in the first place? Why didn't they get Scoot as part of the Ja Morant?

• 1:30:34Bill Simmons?

  I don't know why they did.

• 1:30:34Speaker 01

  Arrangement.

• 1:30:36Bill Simmons?

  Free Scoot Henderson is my thing. Did you want to do a Stephen A apology to El Chepo?

• 1:30:41Speaker 01

  No, no, I'm not going to do it. I know you, we, we had a whole conversation around last night, Bill Simmons and I, that situation in, in Portland and the direction that that whole thing might be headed.

• 1:30:53Bill Simmons?

  House was testing out a zag about El Chepo.

• 1:30:55Speaker 01

  And I'm not, I'm not.

• 1:30:56Bill Simmons?

  They're not going anywhere. Maybe he has some good ideas and I was like, do this.

• 1:31:00Speaker 01

  I'm not doing it. I'm not, I'm not ready yet. I'm not, I don't have the full apology. Maybe he has some good ideas is a phrase that has led a lot of people down a lot of roads that have become regrettable. Good observation.

• 1:31:11Bill Simmons?

  House, maybe you should apologize for even thinking about doing a zag on El Chepo. I'd like to, I'd like to talk to the Trail Blazer fans right now. A fan base I deeply respect. You could have just done it, House.

• 1:31:27Speaker 01

  I'm not going to do it.

• 1:31:28Bill Simmons?

  Um, Klingon, Avdia, Kamara, Dame and Morant, who they're apparently starting together. I would say everybody who knows anything about basketball, if you ask them, hey, would it make sense to start Dame Lillard and Ja Morant together? The answer would be, no, don't do that. But they're doing it. They're bringing Drew Holiday off the bench, who seems like he'd be perfect, starting with Ja Morant.

• 1:31:54Bill Simmons?

  Time Lords coming off the bench. Sohan, who I don't know how many times teams have to try him out and take him for a test drive. Uh, this is an under for me. I don't understand this team. And anytime I'm just completely confused by a roster, I have to go under 41 and a half. Means that they would have to have a winning record. And I don't see it house. So under for me.

• 1:32:17Speaker 02

  I crossed out my answer to this one three different times. Cause it's a roster with a lot of talent, like guys that shot creators, shot makers. The, you know, the flash flood version of, of Denny, uh, going, you know, to, to the middle. He's just crashing the middle, uh, and getting to the rim and either getting fouled or finishing. What a revelation that was. Well, how many times is he going to be able to do that with this roster construction? I have no fucking idea. So what does it mean to Denny Avdia's development and his impact on the team? I have no clue. I am playing them under. Um, but I could easily see them winning 44 games or so. I, I could easily see it. It wouldn't shock me.

• 1:33:01Bill Simmons?

  I have one more comment on this team, but let's get Zach's pick first.

• 1:33:05Speaker 01

  I think Denny's going to have a great year again, uh, in, taking some easier threes and still being a pretty high volume driver, ball handler, et cetera.

• 1:33:13Bill Simmons?

  But will not have the ball as much as he did last year.

• 1:33:15Speaker 01

  He won't, and he shouldn't. I mean, he had the ball all the time last year. He was, he was, it was a little too much. Uh, I, I think there's real talent here. I like some of the pieces. I have the same fit issues everybody else has. No one is tanking. And again, a stat that if I am having any little trouble deciding 16 and 33 against winning teams last year.

• 1:33:34Speaker 02

  There we go.

• 1:33:34Speaker 01

  26 and seven against the sub 500 teams. I am going a slight under on the Blazers.

• 1:33:41Bill Simmons?

  I also have real questions about what do we get out of Dame at this point of his career coming off that injury? When I didn't really like where the arrow was pointed to begin with. And then him playing with Ja Morant. Just ridiculous anyway, but then where Ja Morant is now in his career, where it was all athleticism and all getting in the basket. And as he gets a little older and it's had some wear and tear and injuries. What's plan B? Cause he still can't shoot. So I, I don't know. I don't like the, uh, and then you have a coach on a one-year contract and you have El Chepo. Three unders for us. Last one's going to be a good, uh, lively convo. The Utah Jazz. They're over under is 37 and a half, which made me go, whoa.

• 1:34:23Bill Simmons?

  Thought, I didn't think it was going to be that high. Playoffs plus one 10, play in plus 100. Last year they were 22 and 60, but in the last 40, they were eight and 32 as they, uh, threw away the second half of the season to the point that Adam Silver, for one of the few times in his commissioner tenure, actually got mad and cleaned, cleaned house and did some shit. A lot of people like this team, Zach Lowe. My big question, can I offer everyone around a settle down juice?

• 1:34:53Speaker 01

  You can offer it to me. I don't have to take it. I'm going to turn your, you can buy me a drink at the bar and I'm going to say, no, thank you. I don't like the look of that guy. I don't like what he's about and I'm returning the drink.

• 1:35:02Bill Simmons?

  20 ounce settle down juice? You're not taking it.

• 1:35:05Speaker 01

  That's too much. I don't even want a 12 ounce settle down juice. I'll have a beer instead. Or I guess I'll have a two and a half percent beer because we're talking about the Jazz, but I'll take my beer. Thank you.

• 1:35:14Bill Simmons?

  They lost Walker Kessler, who played five games last year. They added Darren Peterson. They're starting Triple J, Markkinen, Ace Bailey, Peterson and George. Nurkic is out for at least a month. Bench is C plus. Uh, where are you looking, Zach Lowe?

• 1:35:33Speaker 01

  I'm going over on the Jazz. Uh, I, I have a lot of faith in Will Hardy. I think he just has a chance to be a very dynamic offensive team. Obviously there are concerns about rebounding, particularly without Nurkic. Uh, maybe they'll start, they started Jackson Hayes last night. I think they're still deciding who the fifth starter on the team is going to be. Wing defense obviously going to be a little bit of an issue. Uh, but I think, I, I like the fit of marketing and Triple J together. I think Keanu George is a real guy. I, I like Darren Peterson. I think Will Hardy is a great coach. They're hungry to win. They have good spacing. They're creative. They're going to be hard to play against. Their bench to me is just, just good enough that I can go over on 37 and a half.

• 1:36:16Bill Simmons?

  House?

• 1:36:17Speaker 02

  Yeah. So the market, I think this opened 35 and a half.

• 1:36:22Bill Simmons?

  Went up two, I think.

• 1:36:23Speaker 02

  Yeah. So all the way up to 37 and a half now, because as folks, as the season's, you know, coming into view, we have some proof of concept with what a dynamic scorer Darren Peterson is. Uh, and wow, could he be complimentary? Um, you know, adding to this, this team that already, you know, has some shot makers, some guys that can create some, some shots, your guys that you would trust with the ball. Um, and it feels like Ace Bailey was a little under the radar last season. He's, he's a big guy. This is a big lineup. They can run out there.

• 1:37:00Speaker 01

  I, I like, I like, I like Ace Bailey a lot. I think he's got a chance to be, and he's in the perfect role now as he doesn't have to do too much offensively. He's really embraced like trying to get better defensively, moving off the ball. I, I, I really like him.

• 1:37:13Bill Simmons?

  There's some rim protection stuff with him that I, I did not expect last year.

• 1:37:16Speaker 02

  I mean, Washington was dying to get him, um, in the draft that they selected, uh, Trey Johnson. They just couldn't, you know, figure out a way to rope a dope Utah. Uh, and Utah was not good to be rope a doped, even with Ace, you know, pretending that he wasn't going to be happy there. Um, I have to take the over with this team because of my respect for, for Hardy and how many professional basketball players are on this team. And because I think when we get to this Pacific division, uh, the number of unders that are appearing there and all of the wins that are available. Um, I have Utah threatening the play in. I think they're going to be a legit, you know, team to, to bump up into that sort of 10 space.

• 1:38:00Bill Simmons?

  I'm going to zag and go under just because we've, I don't have enough where I've zagged against you guys. I have them right around this number. The rebounding and defense stuff is a real concern for me. I agree with what Zach said about Will Hardy. I'm excited to see him with a real team. Offensively, I like some of the stuff they have. I also think they have a bunch of guys that probably would want to have the ball. And I don't know how the Peterson, George thing is going to work out. Peterson is the anointed guard. Holy shit. There's some Kobe in here. There's a bunch of different pieces of great players that.

• 1:38:35Speaker 01

  I think, I think you need some settle down juice.

• 1:38:37Bill Simmons?

  I'm just saying, if you watch a two-minute, two-minute, here's what Darren Peterson did last night montage, you're like, Jesus.

• 1:38:44Speaker 01

  Are you saying he's a problem?

• 1:38:46Bill Simmons?

  Darren Peterson is a problem. But, but George was a problem last year. I mean, he averaged 23 a game and had the ball all the time for them. And I thought it was pretty good at the end of games. Um, I don't like the rebounding defense piece at all. And I don't know when Nurkic comes back. I don't know how this team's going to get rebounds. Jaren Jackson is career average, I have it written down, 5.6 rebounds a game. And not just that, he only plays like 28, 29 minutes a game. He, and he gets into foul trouble all the time.

• 1:39:19Speaker 01

  Honestly, I would listen to a 45-minute podcast segment of you and Barkley just complaining about power forwards and centers who don't get rebounds.

• 1:39:28Bill Simmons?

  It's my all-time.

• 1:39:28Speaker 01

  It's one of your, it's one of your favorite things that you guys share.

• 1:39:31Bill Simmons?

  It's two a quarter.

• 1:39:32Speaker 01

  You can't resist it. And I would, I would listen to just you guys going through all of NBA history and Barkley being like, I played against that guy. He stinks. And just going off on bad.

• 1:39:41Bill Simmons?

  When you go to and I played pickup basketball at USC, I was getting two rebounds a quarter. It's not hard. Just go put your ass into somebody and get a rebound. Um, I worry about the rebounding and I worry about them defending. Unless House is right about Ace Bailey and he's somebody that could actually become a two-way guy right away this year. My fear for this team, I also have some Peterson fears too, because I, I still think the Kansas season was really weird. It just was. He played, he wasn't playing, he was hurt, he wasn't hurting. I don't trust that. My thing with this team, and I don't like their schedule, first 20 games either. My thing with this team, I think they're, the advanced stats are going to be really good.

• 1:40:22Bill Simmons?

  It's going to be a little like Charlotte last year where we're like, whoa, look at Utah's offense. Holy shit. And I think they're going to be in the vicinity of a lot of games, but I don't think they're going to be a 500 team. It's a slight under. I think they're somewhere between 35 and 37 for me. So under for me, over for Zach, over for House.

• 1:40:39Speaker 02

  Yeah. I do want to point out, it is funny. Zach probably knows off the top of his head. Maybe you know as well. Who, who was Utah's leading rebounder last season?

• 1:40:49Bill Simmons?

  Was it Markkinen?

• 1:40:50Speaker 02

  It was not.

• 1:40:53Bill Simmons?

  Who was it?

• 1:40:53Speaker 02

  Kyle Filipowski. It's just over seven rebounds a game.

• 1:40:57Speaker 01

  Pretty good. Kyle Filipowski. I'll tell you, you could make a very good Sfima High Luke was a problem video too. Just, just, just FYI on that.

• 1:41:05Bill Simmons?

  My dad couldn't stand him. When he played for the Celtics, my dad was upset. They brought that ZV guy in again. What does he do?

• 1:41:13Speaker 01

  He shoots. That's what he does.

• 1:41:15Bill Simmons?

  I will say, I feel the, the, the worst about this pick out of my first 10 picks. Cause I could see this being over. The Will Hardy thing worries me and the crowd worries me. And I, I don't feel great about the under, but we had to disagree on something. All right. We're going to take a break. Come back with the, uh, the very, very decrepit Pacific after this. The Pacific division, our third and last division in the West, and easily the worst one. The Lakers have the best odds. They're over under is 45 and a half for the division. They're minus 180. Conference 21, title 40 to one. Their 2027 draft pick goes to Memphis, but it is top four protected. Last year they were 53 and 29. They lost LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, Deandre Ayton.

• 1:42:00Bill Simmons?

  They added Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton and Mamu, a Zach Lowe favorite. My big question for you, Zach, can these snow time Lakers get Luca an MVP?

• 1:42:15Speaker 01

  It's it's possible, but I I feel like we've been having the same discussion about, oh, this is the year that all the stars align for Luca to win MVP and he I I don't when I say he hasn't played enough games, I don't mean he hasn't qualified for the 65 game rule. I mean, he's he's like around 68 a lot and then his team just doesn't finish high enough in the standings. So I it's just, look, when you got to go through Wemby and Jokic and SGA, the answer is always going to probably be no snow time or no snow time.

• 1:42:44Bill Simmons?

  Pando, Wemby plus 200, SGA plus 400, Luca plus 500, Joker six to one, Giannis 10 to one, Tatum 16 to one, House. I'm not allowed to bet on this award.

• 1:42:55Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm it's it's a waste of money at the outset of the season to bet on MVP from a gambling perspective. As the season develops, maybe, but I'm done. I'm not betting on Luca anymore. I've done it each of the last three years.

• 1:43:10Bill Simmons?

  You've donated to the Luca MVP Fund.

• 1:43:12Speaker 02

  Had enough.

• 1:43:14Bill Simmons?

  What does an MVP season look like for him? I wrote down probably 49 plus wins, 35 a game, 35, nine and nine, and some game winners. And I think he has to play 70 plus games, right? Now, if he goes James Harden 2019 range, where he's like 36, 37 a game, the conversation shifts, I think. You don't seem excited about that, Zach.

• 1:43:42Speaker 01

  No, I just, I mean, we'll see. I, you know, I, I, I think the team is more interesting than how many points Luca is going to average, whether it's 33 or 35 or 37 or 31. It's going to be a shit ton of points and he's going to put up amazing stats.

• 1:43:56Bill Simmons?

  Starting five of Quentin Grimes and four white guys? Four white starters, House. We're heading back to the 50s.

• 1:44:04Speaker 02

  A throwback, a true throwback.

• 1:44:07Bill Simmons?

  And the big move was Kessler, who I talked about on my pod last week or two weeks ago. They gave up a shitload of stuff for him. For a guy that I don't think was probably in the top, Ringer 100 hasn't come out for this year. I don't think he was probably in the top 60, played five games last year. They could have patched together center in different ways. They decided they wanted to go all in on somebody Luca was excited about. And he both has to play a lot of games. He has to be incredibly impactful. And even if that happens, I'm still not sure what the destiny of this team is. So there's another variable. They, the team just got sold. Rob Pelinka is not on the crock pot. He's on

• 1:44:49Bill Simmons?

  the, I don't even think he's on a hot seat. I think he's in the exit row.

• 1:44:54Speaker 02

  Oh.

• 1:44:55Bill Simmons?

  And I don't know when that's going to happen, but I don't think he will be involved with this team by the end of the season, if not sooner.

• 1:45:02Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 1:45:04Bill Simmons?

  JJ seems okay. And I thought JJ did a good job last year. But there's a little bit of, it's Luca's team now. Now they'll change the front office. They're going to cruise to this division. And I don't know what success is for this team, Zach, other than being in the high 40s and building a future around Luca. Like, I don't think this team has aspirations that they're going to win three playoff rounds, right?

• 1:45:33Speaker 01

  I I wouldn't say that to Luca's face or JJ Reddick's face, but it's it's hard. I mean, that's making the finals out of the West and that seems like a hill too high for them to climb. And, I mean, I think the bigger problem is that it's not the money for Kessler, it's the picks that that combined with the money. It is this team now just boxed in asset wise with the only out looming if they want to change their team, trading Austin Reeves, which is going to be, you know, if they ever do it, would be trading an extremely talented player to try to get another extremely talented player back or reset the timetable, which Luca is not going to want. But look, I mean, the season you just described, high 40 wins, top four seed, win a playoff round, lose to Oklahoma City or San Antonio, it's

• 1:46:18Speaker 01

  not what Luca wants to hear. It's not what Lakers fans want to hear. It's a good, nothing wrong with that.

• 1:46:24Bill Simmons?

  When do we think, when do we get the first interview from somebody talking about how last year with the LeBron situation just wasn't fun and it's nice to, nice to have this fresh start, or there's going to be something that's going to piss off somebody and we'll get a little back and forth? Does that happen? Does that happen for Christmas?

• 1:46:41Speaker 01

  They better have a pretty goddamn good winning record if it if it ever does happen.

• 1:46:45Bill Simmons?

  So if they're like 17 and nine, that's when it can happen? All right.

• 1:46:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, maybe.

• 1:46:50Bill Simmons?

  Where are you, House?

• 1:46:52Speaker 02

  I don't know. I'm not sure.

• 1:46:56Speaker 01

  Well, the time has arrived.

• 1:46:58Bill Simmons?

  Well, you have to pick. It's 45 and a half.

• 1:47:00Speaker 01

  I'll go. You want me to go?

• 1:47:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you go.

• 1:47:03Speaker 01

  Over lock.

• 1:47:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Okay, lock. I am an over only because I think healthy Luca for 70 games with an entire offense being geared around him feels like 46 and 36 minimum to me.

• 1:47:19Speaker 02

  I have to go over as well.

• 1:47:20Bill Simmons?

  And their conferences are their divisions.

• 1:47:22Speaker 02

  But I'm shocked that you're you're an over.

• 1:47:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I just, Luca's too good.

• 1:47:27Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:47:28Bill Simmons?

  I think he's going to be really invested, not that he isn't every year, but especially in this year. This is now his team. Everyone's coming to see him. Everyone's going to be wearing Luca jerseys. And I just think he's going to, if he's ever going to have a career year, this is the year.

• 1:47:45Speaker 02

  Zach, what is a

• 1:47:47Bill Simmons?

  Did you make a pick yet?

• 1:47:48Speaker 02

  I did. I took the over.

• 1:47:49Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:47:50Speaker 02

  They can't play defense. There's nobody on the floor. You know, they have one rim protector. You know, Utah tried that with Rudy Gobert, didn't work.

• 1:47:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:47:59Speaker 01

  It worked okay. They won, they won like 60 games one year.

• 1:48:03Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah. But when he was the sole

• 1:48:06Bill Simmons?

  You're talking about it didn't work for winning the finals, making the finals.

• 1:48:10Speaker 02

  And and him as the only sort of defensive stopper. What's a, what's a Lakers game look like? Is it like a 129 to 122? Is that what we're going to see?

• 1:48:21Speaker 01

  What what's, what, I mean, how many games did they win last year? Who was playing defense for them at a high level last year?

• 1:48:29Bill Simmons?

  That's the problem. And that's why, one of the reasons I went over, because I had the under for them last year and I was rooting against them. And I also don't like the Lakers. And you get in these games with them where they're down six with four minutes left, but they have Luca. And he just starts tilting the last four minutes of these games and getting good, doing all the stuff he does. And there, and I think they'll, I think they're going to be close to a lot of the teams and he'll be, he'll swing, they're a 500 team and he'll swing six games, right?

• 1:48:57Speaker 01

  I think Kessler's a legit, really good defender. And JJ Reddick has shown the ability to like scheme around his team's limitations and oh, and like win the kind of marginal things that you can almost kind of control as a coach. Like, they walk into every game, Bill, you can conspiracy theory, Bill, if you want, with like a plus five free throw advantage, every single game. They, Luca teams are generally like

• 1:49:20Bill Simmons?

  You don't even make conspiracy, Bill. You could just have Bill for that one.

• 1:49:24Speaker 01

  Lucas teams are generally low turnover teams. So I could see them like seventh in offense, 17th in defense, sixth in offense, 15th in defense. I just think 45 and a half is too low. They were kind to me last year. I was the only one to pick the over last year. So I'm going to go over lock.

• 1:49:40Bill Simmons?

  And the division stinking, I think, helps them as well.

• 1:49:43Speaker 02

  It does help. I agree with that. That's more than anything. That's really the case here. I mean, I'm going to lay, this is a rare instance where the the price is minus 180 to win the division. I'm going to lay it.

• 1:49:54Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I don't, I guess we could talk as we go through the rest of these teams. I don't know who the challengers. Golden State, over under is 36 and a half. I have them in the number two spot because the over under was 39 and a half when I did my layout. And it has now dropped three wins. And they're now plus 410 for the division. They're plus 110 for the plan, plus 105 for the plan, plus 110 for the playoffs. Last year, 37 and 45. Big question for you, House. Does it matter that Steph Curry will never win another title with the Warriors?

• 1:50:27Speaker 02

  What kind of question is that? What does it matter?

• 1:50:30Bill Simmons?

  Does it matter?

• 1:50:31Speaker 02

  No, it doesn't matter.

• 1:50:32Bill Simmons?

  When we talk about Steph Curry in 30 years, will it matter at all?

• 1:50:35Speaker 02

  No.

• 1:50:35Bill Simmons?

  I'm going to say

• 1:50:36Speaker 02

  No.

• 1:50:36Bill Simmons?

  Zero percent, no.

• 1:50:37Speaker 02

  No, doesn't matter at all. It's an amazing legacy. He's a one of one. He is the greatest shooter I've ever seen.

• 1:50:47Bill Simmons?

  He's, I'm retiring with the Warriors. And that's just, it's very Dirk Nowitzki mid 2010s Mavs-ish. This is my team. I don't want to play anywhere else. I already won. I'm good.

• 1:50:58Speaker 01

  He's got a great life.

• 1:50:59Bill Simmons?

  Zach, did you watch The Sopranos?

• 1:51:01Speaker 01

  I did not watch the whole series. No, I, I got in and then I got out and then I got interrupted and it was too late. It's, it's on my list of like, I just have to sit down and do this.

• 1:51:10Bill Simmons?

  All right, only House will get this joke then. I think he's in the Carmelo, Carmelo Soprano arc.

• 1:51:17Speaker 02

  Oh.

• 1:51:17Bill Simmons?

  Of, he went great. He's, things are going. The Sopranos are kicking ass, winning titles. We had the dip.

• 1:51:26Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:51:27Bill Simmons?

  Like in, in the, in the show, season five, Tony moves out.

• 1:51:31Speaker 02

  Well, she asked for a divorce.

• 1:51:32Bill Simmons?

  She's going to get a divorce. She tries to meet with different lawyers.

• 1:51:36Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 1:51:37Bill Simmons?

  No lawyer will take her case.

• 1:51:38Speaker 02

  Well, because Tony's a bottom ball.

• 1:51:39Bill Simmons?

  She hooks up with the teacher for a couple of episodes.

• 1:51:42Speaker 02

  Flirts with the priest.

• 1:51:44Bill Simmons?

  Eventually gets sucked back in. And then by the last season, she's just like, this is my family and I'm married to this guy and that's it. And I guess we're going to, I guess we're going to the diner tonight.

• 1:51:56Speaker 02

  We're in the Carmelo.

• 1:51:57Bill Simmons?

  I'm just, I'm married to him for life until he gets shot, basically. And I think Steph, at some point over the last couple of years, it was like,

• 1:52:06Bill Simmons?

  This is it. I, this is my team. I'm just married to this and this is just how it's gonna play out and I don't really care.

• 1:52:14Speaker 02

  Is Joe Lacob Tony?

• 1:52:16Bill Simmons?

  I think Draymond Green is Tony.

• 1:52:18Speaker 02

  Oh, I like that better.

• 1:52:19Bill Simmons?

  And I think Joe Lacob is probably Johnny Sack. And I don't know. Yeah. See that? Now you're getting.

• 1:52:25Speaker 02

  This is good.

• 1:52:26Bill Simmons?

  But it's Dirk. It's a little messy in Miami, too. Where it's like, I've done everything I can do and now it's like, I'll come. I'm in the MLS. Come see me. I'll make some threes every once in a while. I'll be on in big TV days.

• 1:52:39Speaker 02

  It's fun.

• 1:52:40Bill Simmons?

  I just don't think he cares. The big, the big question for me roster wise is if Yaxel is impactful this year. Can that shift the over under at all? Like if he's, he's 24 years old. It's conceivable. He could come in and just be an impact guy. So now you have Draymond and Yaxle and Pods Curry. We have no idea what we're getting for Porzingis. They basically have no rebounder, shot blocker, or anybody other than Horford.

• 1:53:05Speaker 02

  De Santos?

• 1:53:06Bill Simmons?

  Man, it's a wing guy.

• 1:53:07Speaker 02

  I like Gee.

• 1:53:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:53:08Speaker 02

  I like Gee.

• 1:53:10Bill Simmons?

  It's decent bench, guys. Butler's coming back mid-season. I just think it's gonna be too much damage in the first couple of months here without Butler. Not knowing what you're getting for Porzingis, no Moses Moody, trying to figure out what this team is that uh, it's gonna be too hard. I am shockingly going under, guys.

• 1:53:27Speaker 02

  Shocking? What's shocking about it?

• 1:53:28Bill Simmons?

  Thirty-six and a half. Like, I just would have been a blind over for me basically until this year with these guys. What do you have, Zach?

• 1:53:35Speaker 02

  Yeah, go ahead, Zach.

• 1:53:36Speaker 01

  Uh, I'm an under as well.

• 1:53:40Speaker 01

  I, I think you outlined it pretty well. Worth noting, Steph Curry is 38 and missed half of last season with runner's knee. And they just have absolutely no fallback plan for, until Jimmy Butler comes back and who knows how good he'll look for the first month or two when he's back. If Curry misses games and Curry will miss games. And I also think, as we alluded to earlier, they could very well find themselves in a position where they are in the sweet spot of the new lottery system. And that's the absolute best place for them to be in terms of their long-term future. So I will go under.

• 1:54:13Bill Simmons?

  With a star player who would have complete buy-in on. Yeah, we're not doing anything anyway. The, the other problem is there's really good centers in the league now. And you could get to, you could kind of patch together the aging Draymond and Al Horford and but they kind of needed Porzingis or somebody like that. And it just, I mean, we don't, Porzingis, this is the great unknown.

• 1:54:33Speaker 01

  They tried.

• 1:54:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we have no idea what's gonna happen.

• 1:54:35Speaker 01

  I'm just, I'm penciling in a, a zero just for my, just for my, my projections and I'll be happy if I'm wrong.

• 1:54:42Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's right.

• 1:54:44Bill Simmons?

  And they misplayed this badly.

• 1:54:45Speaker 02

  It's a super under. The misplay, the thing that they can't overcome is fucking up two incredibly high draft picks. There's just no recovering from Wiseman and Kuminga with the, with the team that they are and the way that they tried to.

• 1:54:58Bill Simmons?

  Or turning them into any sort of asset either way with any of those guys.

• 1:55:02Speaker 02

  Yeah. So it's an under. It's a big under for me.

• 1:55:04Bill Simmons?

  I am glad George's Niang is on this team. I've always liked him. I think he'll fit in. I think he'll be a, a popular Warrior. The crazy question that almost could have been the big question is have, has the Vaux, have they supplanted the Warriors as the team of Golden State? I don't know if you're following the Vaux.

• 1:55:21Speaker 01

  I'm following the WNBA and the, the, there was breaking news. I didn't read it about where the actual finals games are gonna be in Atlanta while we were doing this podcast.

• 1:55:31Bill Simmons?

  The team building of the Vaux is an all-timer. So Lacob still gets the victory lap this year. It's like, yeah, we won four titles with Warriors and then I moved my attention to WNBA.

• 1:55:39Speaker 01

  He's not, he's not that kind of owner to take a public victory lap like that. That's not him.

• 1:55:44Bill Simmons?

  Three unders for us.

• 1:55:45Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:55:46Bill Simmons?

  Listen, Kerr signed a new deal. Curry signed a new deal. Draymond's got one left.

• 1:55:53Bill Simmons?

  I think this is a, this is a four to 10 team. Are we gonna use that as an official phrase? A four to 10?

• 1:55:59Speaker 01

  Oh, sure. In the lottery system? Yeah, four to 10 team. And, and I think they get. And I think they're 55 games in and they're like, we can try and we will try because we're a proud veteran team. That's still where we're gonna end up. And I think the key for them is not to tank, but just don't go the other way and be like, let's trade two of our picks for this marginal guy who might help us make the play-in tournament.

• 1:56:22Bill Simmons?

  Well, one of the things that I had in my notes as I was trying to figure out the records. You could be a four to 10 team, but also maybe be a play-in team in the West. Cause there's a chance, there's like seven bad West teams and only three bad East teams. And they're, and a lot of the wins are in the East. And you could be in the like 36 to 38 range with a chance to kind of straddle.

• 1:56:42Speaker 02

  We had it last year.

• 1:56:43Bill Simmons?

  We had it last year.

• 1:56:44Speaker 02

  Yeah, they were 37, they were the 10th and, and they were 37 wins.

• 1:56:48Bill Simmons?

  Phoenix Suns, over under 38 and a half.

• 1:56:53Bill Simmons?

  Plus three, 10 for the division, minus one, 10 for the playoffs. Their 2027 draft pick is going to Houston. They were 45 and 37 last year, but they were 14 and 16 in their last 30. My big question, House.

• 1:57:09Bill Simmons?

  They have this team, the Duke kid's gonna be the center, the kid you liked in the draft. Miles Bridges, Brooks, Green, Booker, Gillespie, Kennard, Also.

• 1:57:20Speaker 01

  Goodwin.

• 1:57:21Bill Simmons?

  Dunn, Fleming, Highsmith.

• 1:57:25Bill Simmons?

  They don't have any good picks until 2034.

• 1:57:30Bill Simmons?

  This is your team, Phoenix?

• 1:57:33Bill Simmons?

  This is where you landed? The Clippers just had the biggest suspension in the history of the league and have more first pick assets than Phoenix does.

• 1:57:41Speaker 02

  But that's.

• 1:57:41Bill Simmons?

  This is how you, where you landed? So for the offseason, got rid of Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neal, added Miles Bridges, Luke Kennard and Pat Spencer.

• 1:57:49Speaker 02

  This is what happens when you fuck up. When, right when the team, you know, is under new ownership and go all in on, on a player like Kevin Durant for, in a situation that made no sense.

• 1:58:00Bill Simmons?

  And even worse, Bradley Beal.

• 1:58:01Speaker 02

  And Bradley, well, the Bradley Beal, they'll, all they did was, you know, take on this.

• 1:58:05Bill Simmons?

  Took on all these dumb swaps.

• 1:58:06Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:58:09Speaker 02

  So they're paying the price for that. I had to make a decision in looking at this.

• 1:58:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:58:13Speaker 02

  Between which roster I preferred.

• 1:58:16Bill Simmons?

  Between this and.

• 1:58:16Speaker 02

  Phoenix and Portland.

• 1:58:18Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 1:58:18Speaker 02

  This was, cause this is, you know, this is where they're gonna fall in terms of, you know, seven, eight, nine. And I think I prefer this Phoenix roster with Otte and with, you know, the fact that because of what you just described. I think it's gonna play hard and I like the, the, the character. I love how they, you know, discovered Gillespie. I loved how they discovered, discovered, you know, Goodwin. Dillon Brooks, I think is exactly the right place. I love what you did in terms of having them very highly ranked for fight potential.

• 1:58:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:58:54Speaker 02

  Dillon Brooks and Miles Bridges together? It's pretty tough. It's a tough guys. The big question mark is, is Green. Can they, can, is there any iteration of Green that, that is, you know, can smell of offensive efficiency? Can we, can we get there with him at all?

• 1:59:10Bill Simmons?

  So I have a bigger question mark.

• 1:59:12Speaker 02

  Go ahead.

• 1:59:12Bill Simmons?

  The center position on this team.

• 1:59:14Speaker 02

  Well, sure.

• 1:59:15Bill Simmons?

  Is, when has Mark Williams come back?

• 1:59:18Speaker 02

  Torn labrum.

• 1:59:19Speaker 01

  I think it's a long time.

• 1:59:20Speaker 02

  I agree.

• 1:59:21Bill Simmons?

  So you're basically rolling the dice with Malley Uche.

• 1:59:25Speaker 01

  Close, close.

• 1:59:26Bill Simmons?

  Mal, Malley Uche?

• 1:59:27Speaker 01

  Malawak.

• 1:59:28Bill Simmons?

  Malawak?

• 1:59:30Speaker 02

  Hey, I got it.

• 1:59:32Bill Simmons?

  You're rolling the dice with Malouf.

• 1:59:35Speaker 02

  The Maloufs are back.

• 1:59:38Bill Simmons?

  You're rolling the dice with the Duke kid.

• 1:59:41Bill Simmons?

  But man, I, from what I saw from him last year, he seemed far away.

• 1:59:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, I agree.

• 1:59:46Bill Simmons?

  Like far away. This was like, felt Wiseman, Golden State-ish far away.

• 1:59:51Speaker 01

  I think Igudaro will start.

• 1:59:52Bill Simmons?

  Also.

• 1:59:53Speaker 01

  At center.

• 1:59:54Bill Simmons?

  Also. Good luck with that.

• 1:59:56Speaker 01

  Sneaky contract extension candidate right now, by the way. Keep an eye on that. But um, I think he'll start.

• 2:00:01Bill Simmons?

  I liked him in the draft.

• 2:00:02Speaker 01

  The bench.

• 2:00:03Bill Simmons?

  One of my favorites.

• 2:00:04Speaker 01

  I'm going, I'm going under on the Suns. I, I do think this is a really, this is like a perfect line. Like I, I think the Suns are an exactly average basketball team on both ends of the floor. I have no idea if this is gonna hit under or over. I just think they got a lot of mileage last year out of just outworking everyone. And I think you get a little bit less mileage out of that this season with no one tanking. Now they were not super healthy last year. Jalen Green missed a bunch of time. Booker missed games. I could go either way on this. I just think it's kind of just meh all around. And you add in Mark Williams already being injured. I, just slight under 38 and a half.

• 2:00:43Bill Simmons?

  It's so funny you said that because my, my initial big question was, my big question. Blah?

• 2:00:50Bill Simmons?

  But I thought that was too mean. But it's a blah team.

• 2:00:54Speaker 01

  They were a super fun team last year. The fans really liked them and I just, they won, they won 45, you said? I, I don't think they can get back to that this year, but they're good and solid and super competitive.

• 2:01:04Bill Simmons?

  The last 30 is really telling them that, to me, that they only were 14 and 16 down the stretch. They, they caught people by surprise in that first two months. And I thought they won a couple of games they shouldn't have won. And I thought they kind of came back to where they should be.

• 2:01:18Speaker 02

  What was their record against winning teams? Do you have that in front of you, Zach?

• 2:01:22Speaker 01

  Uh, yeah, 21 and 30.

• 2:01:24Speaker 02

  So that's not horrendous.

• 2:01:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but there was a couple of like outrageous end of the game wins that they had.

• 2:01:30Speaker 02

  No, I, I, I, yeah, you're right.

• 2:01:32Bill Simmons?

  So my thing with this, and one of the reasons I went under, because I think they'll be between 35 and 38. And I think that's okay with, if you're them, because after we get the top five, and let's say the Lakers win 45, 46. Seven, eight, nine, 10, I think might all be under 40. Portland, Phoenix, Dallas, all these teams. I think they're all gonna be clustered in that 35 to 39 range. And I don't think there's gonna be an outlier. I think that's just where those teams are. Who's your favorite son? When you do the Zach Lowe All-Stars?

• 2:02:03Speaker 01

  Just like favorite guy to watch?

• 2:02:05Bill Simmons?

  No, you, you, I called it the Bill Simmons All-Stars when I had my calm. You called it the Marcus All-Stars, your favorite?

• 2:02:12Speaker 01

  Um, I'll disqualify Booker just because he's too good.

• 2:02:15Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 2:02:17Speaker 01

  I would say coming for this is Rashir Fleming. I just haven't seen enough yet, but he is a freak and can do some stuff. I'll go Colin Gillespie. Uh, and I actually think there's this interesting conversation, should he start over Jalen Green? But he's just got a lot of moxie, man. He talks a lot of shit. He make, he's snarling at people. I, I like him.

• 2:02:38Bill Simmons?

  If I were the Suns, I would start, uh, I would start Gillespie and make Green my sixth man and just be like, you're gonna come in and run the offense.

• 2:02:46Speaker 01

  We may well get there.

• 2:02:46Bill Simmons?

  10 minutes a game.

• 2:02:47Speaker 02

  Well, that honestly, they could probably sell that to Green. Why don't you go win sixth man of the year? Make your mark, Jalen Green. Show us that you can do it.

• 2:02:55Bill Simmons?

  I think his response would be, but I'm one of the 12 best players in the league. Why would I do that?

• 2:03:01Bill Simmons?

  Do you realize how good I am of Jalen Green?

• 2:03:04Bill Simmons?

  Can we talk about quickly the Luke Kennard sucking in another fanbase into the hope of Luke Kennard and how that whole arc is gonna be?

• 2:03:11Speaker 01

  I'm actually going the opposite way. I really hope he turned the corner last year and I'm, I'm surprised the Lakers didn't bring him back because he's been searching for his confidence and searching for a home that shows confidence in him. And I thought particularly given how he played at the beginning of the Houston series and he was like, what he had 30 in a game in that series.

• 2:03:30Bill Simmons?

  Kind of died as the playoffs went along though.

• 2:03:32Speaker 01

  I thought he had found a home. I think he's gonna be completely fine as a seventh, eighth guy in Phoenix and he's a solid player.

• 2:03:38Bill Simmons?

  Is he one of the top 37 I thought he found a home guys of the last 25 years, Zach?

• 2:03:43Speaker 01

  He's, I mean,

• 2:03:47Bill Simmons?

  I did, I agree there. I thought he found a home.

• 2:03:49Speaker 01

  What the criteria is for that list, but sure.

• 2:03:52Bill Simmons?

  It always seems like Luke Kennard found a home for about 20 minutes and then he's on another team.

• 2:03:58Speaker 02

  This does make a lot of sense for him though. They, they are sneaky good. Like I, I feel going under and them at only 38 wins, it's disrespectful to Dillon Brooks. Everywhere Dillon Brooks goes, they're winners. Dillon Brooks is a winner.

• 2:04:13Bill Simmons?

  I don't know why the Lakers.

• 2:04:14Speaker 01

  You went under anyway, right?

• 2:04:15Speaker 02

  No, they're an over for me. I think they're gonna win the low 40s because I think they're better than Portland.

• 2:04:19Bill Simmons?

  I don't know why they signed Colin Sexton and let Luke Kennard go. If I, the Lakers, I didn't get that one. I also get suspicious. I feel the same way. I forgot to say this with the Kessler trade. When Utah, who is clearly building like this whole foundation that he seemed to be a part of, and then all of a sudden the Lakers made some offer and Utah's like, okay, done, call it in. That would make me nervous if I was the Lakers. Why are they so anxious to put this guy in a trade? I guess because the package was so great. Speaking of packages that are great, the Los Angeles Clippers.

• 2:04:59Bill Simmons?

  Over, under 27 and a half. They do not have their first round pick in 2027 because it is swapped with OKC or Cleveland. So technically they will have a pick. They're plus 850 for the playoffs, plus 370 for the play-in. Last year they were 42 and 40. Zach, my big question is, yikes, yikes, why? They lost Kawhi Leonard, John Collins and Nick Batum. They added Brandon Ingram on one leg, Keith Wagner, Rui Hachimura, Max Strus on one leg and Grady Dick.

• 2:05:41Bill Simmons?

  Starting five for the first Clippers game. Who do they announce last? Is it gonna be Wagner or Darius Garland? Who's gonna get the spot in the Jumbotron? The last guy who does the clap hands and screams.

• 2:05:55Speaker 01

  Careful talking about Jumbotrons and the Clippers.

• 2:05:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, too soon, my bad. They're starting Brook Lopez, who's our H House. They're gonna start Derek Jones that gets hurt seemingly every year and sometimes two to three times a year. They do have my guy Niederhauser. They have your guy Bradley Beal.

• 2:06:18Bill Simmons?

  I don't think we have to talk about this long. This is a hard under for me. I don't see how this team gets to 25 wins, much less 28.

• 2:06:26Speaker 01

  27 and a half is very low. Ty Lou is a very good wins scrounging manufacturing coach. They are gonna have the chip on our shoulder, try hard, outwork everyone, try to restore some dignity to the operation. And yet Brandon Ingram's already hurt, Max Strus is already hurt. I'm going under 27 and a half in a league where everyone's trying. I just think, I, I don't, even Jordan Miller is hurt. Like just guys are already hurt all over the place. I'm going under.

• 2:06:55Bill Simmons?

  And by the way, if you finish in the bottom three and you don't have your pick, who cares? If anything, it's a little sticking.

• 2:07:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, you've hurt someone else.

• 2:07:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you've hurt somebody else. Under, under House?

• 2:07:07Speaker 02

  Under lock. It's a lock for me. Yes. I mean, I, I got, the Clippers were one of my favorite teams last season. On this note of, of Ty Lou, I still don't understand why they came out of, at the beginning of the season last year and were so terrible over the first 30 games. Still have no good explanation for why that team that threatened 50 wins, the previous season was competitive.

• 2:07:31Bill Simmons?

  There was a big scandal brewing.

• 2:07:34Speaker 02

  What'd that have to do with playing basketball on the basketball court?

• 2:07:36Bill Simmons?

  The vibes were got weird.

• 2:07:38Speaker 01

  But how, but House is right.

• 2:07:39Bill Simmons?

  21 at one point.

• 2:07:41Speaker 01

  Not only were they 6 and 21, the, um, the very first game of their season was in Utah and they got blown out by like 30 and it was one of the all time, single game, opening game alarming, like whoa, something is not right here. Like it would, they just looked completely.

• 2:07:59Bill Simmons?

  We should keep that in mind for this year.

• 2:08:01Speaker 02

  They're, they're opening five, the, the starting five for that team was, you know, it was, it was Zoo, it was Kawhi, it was James Harden. Like what the fuck?

• 2:08:12Bill Simmons?

  It was alarming and it is something to, to put in your back pocket when we watch opening, opening night that Wednesday with all the games. If there's a team that has that kind of feel, like it's somewhat meaningful. Um, we didn't mention how bad the home field advantage is gonna be for them. Home court advantage.

• 2:08:31Speaker 01

  Streetlights over spotlights, baby.

• 2:08:33Bill Simmons?

  It's gonna be.

• 2:08:34Speaker 02

  Are you gonna go find out?

• 2:08:36Bill Simmons?

  I will go to a couple of games.

• 2:08:37Speaker 02

  All right.

• 2:08:38Bill Simmons?

  I do, I will say, I do feel bad for the people that work for the Clippers and they didn't deserve this or ask for this. And, you know, they're in a good situation seemingly with a new arena and a contending team. And now all of a sudden they've been thrown into this, basically only because of a couple of people. Under. I don't know if I'm locking that one yet. I'm gonna wait till the end. Last team, Sacramento Kings. They lost to Mar Rosen and Devin Carter, who is now gonna be a star for the Celtics. They added Darius Acuff and my son, Ben Simmons.

• 2:09:09Bill Simmons?

  Division, if you want to look at those odds, 125 to one.

• 2:09:13Speaker 01

  I don't want to look at them.

• 2:09:14Bill Simmons?

  125 to one, Zach. Title, 1000 to one. Playoffs, 40 to one.

• 2:09:22Bill Simmons?

  Last year they were 22 and 60 and they kept Doug Christie. Their starting lineup is Sabonis, Murray, Hunter, Levine and Acuff. Levine in a contract year. Reynaud is already hurt.

• 2:09:35Speaker 01

  Maxime Reynaud.

• 2:09:37Bill Simmons?

  Monk is still there. Ben Simmons is allegedly feeling as good as he's had in some time. Achoo is here. Over 20 and a half. I don't even have a big question other than, are the Kings talking to you, Zach?

• 2:09:51Speaker 01

  Yeah, we're all good. We're all good with the Kings. I, you didn't mention Nick Clifford, who of all the guys, I'm actually probably the most excited to see what they have in him.

• 2:10:01Bill Simmons?

  They, they didn't seem as excited last year when they weren't playing him enough for some reason.

• 2:10:06Speaker 01

  Well, that's true.

• 2:10:07Bill Simmons?

  I, I like him as well, but he just didn't get enough time.

• 2:10:12Speaker 01

  I'll just get it over with. Uh, the, I'm going over on the Kings after calling them the Hindenburg.

• 2:10:19Bill Simmons?

  I was all excited to go over on them and have you guys react.

• 2:10:21Speaker 02

  Both of you guys do it. It's fine. I'm going.

• 2:10:23Bill Simmons?

  Oh, man. I thought I was gonna be the only over.

• 2:10:26Speaker 02

  I am not doing that.

• 2:10:27Speaker 01

  It's just, it reached a point where it's just too low for a team that has some actual like good basketball players and every organizational incentive to try to avoid the bottom three in the standings. It's just too low of a line. I'm going over.

• 2:10:44Bill Simmons?

  They, with these new rules and the fact that they have their own pick, I don't know, understand how they wouldn't try to be the fourth best team, worst team in the league. You can't be in the bottom three. You're gonna try, this will be fun, the last two weeks as they're scrapping to get to the four spot in the lottery.

• 2:11:06Speaker 01

  I'm gonna bring up their schedule and see if they have any of the games in the last two weeks against like the Bulls or the Nets or some of these other teams that are gonna be down there.

• 2:11:13Bill Simmons?

  21 and 61, sounds fine. And I was encouraged by the Acuff Sabonis stuff in the preseason. I watched some Kings. I do think he's gonna have the ball all the time.

• 2:11:24Speaker 01

  Season finale, I know the Clippers don't control their pick, but Kings at Clippers, last day of the season. Bill, you gotta go to that one.

• 2:11:30Bill Simmons?

  Wow. And guess who won't care about that game? The Clippers. Cause they don't have their pick. House, where are you?

• 2:11:36Speaker 02

  You dicks.

• 2:11:38Bill Simmons?

  Do it. You can't change your pick.

• 2:11:40Speaker 02

  I'm under.

• 2:11:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:11:42Speaker 02

  I'm fine with it. I have no problem.

• 2:11:43Speaker 01

  19, teenage wins.

• 2:11:45Speaker 02

  I mean, I, I, I believe in Doug Christie when it comes to this under. I think he can get it done for me.

• 2:11:52Bill Simmons?

  Why did they bring him back, Zach? Just didn't want to pay two coaches?

• 2:11:57Speaker 01

  Inertia, the most powerful force in.

• 2:11:59Speaker 02

  We look around the league, all the young guys, look at Sean Sweeney in Orlando, look at Jordan Ott in, in Phoenix. We finally get to see Will Hardley, Will Hardy.

• 2:12:09Bill Simmons?

  Zach, do you want to do a Stephen A. apology to Vivek and the Kings?

• 2:12:13Speaker 01

  No, I don't. I have nothing to apologize for. But I do wonder, I, I do wonder also like how many, I, I don't, I've lost track of how many coaches they're still paying any amount of offset to. It may, it may, it may not be any. I mean, Mike Brown's being paid handsomely by the Knicks. I, they may be done with all the.

• 2:12:30Bill Simmons?

  Have they broken the record for most executives who worked for them and then never got a comparable job like that ever again? Like Vlade Divac ran the team and is now, I don't even know what he's doing. He's in like Serbia hosting like the six to 10 all sports show there or something. I don't, I don't know where he went.

• 2:12:50Speaker 01

  He'll be sitting next to Vivek at over, under five and a half games this year.

• 2:12:54Bill Simmons?

  All right, to recap, San Antonio, 60 and a half. We all went over, no locks. Houston, 48 and a half. We all went over. A tri-lock, triple fave. Dallas, 33 and a half. I went over, House went over, Zach went under.

• 2:13:16Bill Simmons?

  Memphis 30 and a half, we all went over. New Orleans, 28 and a half, we all went under. OKC, you know what, I'm gonna lock that one. House and I over lock, Zach just an over. Minnesota, over, over for me and Zach, under for House. That is 46 and a half. Denver, 48 and a half, House and I went over. Zach, in one of the most shocking betrayals in the history of this podcast, under on Jokic. Portland, 41 and a half, we all went under. Utah, 37 and a half, I already regret this one. I went under, you guys went over. Lakers, over, over, over, 45 and a half, Zach locked it down.

• 2:14:00Bill Simmons?

  Golden State, under, 36 and a half, I'm locking this.

• 2:14:04Speaker 01

  You're locking Golden State?

• 2:14:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:14:07Bill Simmons?

  Under for me, under for both of you. Phoenix, under, under for me and Zach, over for House. Clippers, three unders, House locks that one down. That is under, 27 and a half, and last but not least, the Kings. 20 and a half, over, over for me and Zach. Under for House, but a regretful under. I could see the pain in his face after hearing Zach and I lay out the case. What fanbase is gonna be the maddest, Zach?

• 2:14:36Speaker 01

  At us collectively?

• 2:14:37Bill Simmons?

  Or individually, it could be one of us, could be all three of us.

• 2:14:41Speaker 01

  I think the Warriors fans are generally just really cranky right now, so they'll be cranky at anyone who took the under and cranky at anyone being optimistic to take the over. They're, they're, they're seem pretty cranky.

• 2:14:53Bill Simmons?

  I think Phoenix will get cranky, I think they're just cranky in general. That would be.

• 2:14:58Speaker 01

  Portland has bigger fish to fry with El Chepo to be cranky at us.

• 2:15:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, they can't be mad.

• 2:15:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, plus we're going to Portland for a podcast, I should have taken the over just for that, I can't, I can't do it, I can't do it with a jogged in backcourt. All right, uh, that is it for part one. Part two is gonna go up, um, we'll probably put it up whenever it's ready, cuz uh, that's what's gonna happen. Don't forget to check out Zach's, the low post. It's out, he's writing again, the fingers are working after a two-year break. You can hear House on Ringer Wise Guys tomorrow?

• 2:15:28Speaker 01

  Or Friday?

• 2:15:29Bill Simmons?

  Friday, okay. And uh, we'll be back for part two as soon as it's done, thanks guys. Oh, and thanks to Helen, Eduardo, and Chris, and everybody as well.

• 2:15:58Bill Simmons?

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