The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal and Joe House for Part 2 of their annual NFL over/unders pod. Next up: the AFC! (0:00) Intro (5:44) AFC East (37:11) AFC North (01:09:30) AFC South (01:28:45) AFC West Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by PayPal. The holiday rush is coming and you can get ahead of it with PayPal. Shop your favorite online stores with PayPal this season like eBay for collectibles, Fanatics for teen gear, Walmart for tech. Check out the flexibility to pay now or pay later and split your payments with Pay in four with no interest, no late fees. Shop now with PayPal. Paying for subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com slash paying for PayPal, Inc., NMLS 910457.

• 0:39Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network where you can find a new episode of the Rewatchables coming tomorrow, Monday. We're gonna put up a little earlier tomorrow, probably um, early mid afternoon ET. It's a good movie. You've heard of it. That's all I'm gonna say. We didn't announce the movie this week. Sometimes you don't have to. So that's coming. If you missed The Ringer Fantasy Football Show's live draft that we did on Friday, it was one of the funniest three hour runs that we've had at The Ringer. There's people screaming at each other. There was people ganging up on each other. Sal made about 25 off the cuff jokes. People were eating as they were trying to draft.

• 1:21Bill Simmons?

  People were ripping stickers off the little sticker thing, ripping the, it was just, everything was in play. Bad coordination, temper tantrums, you name it. And it all peaked when all of us colluded to completely screw over Danny Heifetz, who thought he was gonna get cute near the end and get a good QB late. And then we just took all the QBs. And now his QBs, I think are Bryce Young, Cam Ward, and somebody, Michael Pennix Jr. Those are his three QBs for the Ringer Fantasy Football Draft. So it was amazing. It was about as fun as I've ever had during a fantasy draft. Great job by everybody. Great job by the Ringer Fantasy guys as well. So that happened.

• 2:02Bill Simmons?

  I was gonna do a big topper this, for this episode about the Red Sox Yankees series, but it basically came down to two plays, cuz they split the doubleheader yesterday. The Red Sox lose 1-0 on Friday because Raffiella doesn't listen to third base coach, tags anyway, thinks Bellinger can't throw him out, throws him out, Red Sox lose 1-0. But that was a great old school Yankee Stadium, Red Sox Yankees pennant race game. I love that one. Didn't like the one as much today, where it felt like it was gonna be another 1-0, 2-1 type game. And Raffiella ends up making this great catch with a guy on first base and somehow the

• 2:42Bill Simmons?

  first base umpire, who is just atrocious all weekend, just really atrocious, calls it as a bounce catch. So then there's not enough on the instant replay to overrule it cuz Raffiella is basically bending his glove over. And that opened the floodgates and the Yankees won this series 3-1. And now the Red Sox are in a lot of trouble for the playoffs cuz they really need to get to the four seed. I've loved this Red Sox season. Little weird today, they brought in Roman Anthony and Trevor Story from Worcester and sent down Anthony Sigler and Mickey Gas, Mickey Gasper, who was the hottest left-handed hitter of, on the team and the hottest hitter maybe in the league.

• 3:25Bill Simmons?

  And sent him down, he comes back in 10 days, but I hope it didn't mess with the juju. Very fun Red Sox season regardless, but always hate losing the Yankees. Can only take solace in the fact that the Yankees have won one World Series in the last 26 years. I looked it up. 2009, Obama's first term, year one of Obama's first term. Last time they won, 17 years ago. So congrats on your win in August. We'll see you in the playoffs, guys. Football, Cousins Sal and I did AFC, NFC, over-unders. We taped them all at once. We ran the NFC on this feed on Thursday. We were about to run the AFC feed. So if you notice, we're in the exact same clothes and Joe House is still gonna be there as, as our third person.

• 4:09Bill Simmons?

  And I had five locks that I loved for the NFC and I think I have two for this one you're about to listen to for the AFC. I like the NFC more, but FanDuel is still giving everyone five 50% PBTs that you can put basically on anything up until the end of August. And so if you like any of the locks you're about to hit, or if you liked anything from the last podcast, like Atlanta under 7.5 or Tampa over 8.5, I think we had five that I really liked. Dallas over, Seattle over, and then what was the other under? I had Washington under. If you like any of those, throw those into the little FanDuel thing because that was very nice of them to do that for us. All right.

• 4:49Bill Simmons?

  Without further ado, the AFC over-unders for win totals with me and the Cousins next. We're gonna take a break and then bring in Pro Jep. This episode is brought to you by one of my best friends in life, NFL Sunday Ticket. Man, I missed it. Kickoff's coming. Yeah, we're getting close. We're within a month. With NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, you get every game, every Sunday, all in one place and it's magnificent. And there's no other way to follow the NFL season. I'm so mad I didn't get YouTube TV until a couple of years ago because it's the best. New users, that might include you, can get NFL Sunday Ticket for eight payments of just $30 a month. You heard me correctly.

• 5:32Bill Simmons?

  New users pay $240 or eight, eight non-cancelable payments of $30 a month. First charge at purchase. Availability varies with NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games and YouTube TV for local and national games. YouTube TV required. Terms, restrictions, and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded. No refunds.

• 6:17Bill Simmons?

  The American Football Conference.

• 6:21Speaker 01

  Curious, why do we do this not on Netflix? This is your conference. We did mine.

• 6:26Bill Simmons?

  The National Football Conference. The American Football Conference. It's more patriotic.

• 6:31Speaker 01

  Oh, I see. Okay.

• 6:32Bill Simmons?

  National sounds a little more sinister, the National Football Conference.

• 6:35Speaker 01

  You made the right decision.

• 6:36Bill Simmons?

  Who took over? Okay, AFC. Old guard, new guard. Old guard, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar, Burrow. They're kinda here. New guard, Drake May, Herbert, Bo Nix, and good Trevor Lawrence, who we've only known for three months. Old guard coaches, Andy Reid, Harbaugh, Tomlin, McDermott. Two of them are gone, plus Belichick, he's gone too. New guard coaches, Frable, even though he's a little older, D'Amico Ryans and Cohen, and maybe Kubiak too. Plus you have Peyton and Jim, Jim Harbaugh, somewhere in there. Do you feel like this is like a transition year or this is a the old guard reclaims everything year?

• 7:20Speaker 01

  Interesting. I was thinking about it in terms of quarterbacks and who we knock out of our top four. And it's been the top four for forever. A half a decade now, right?

• 7:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 7:34Speaker 01

  I'm not ready to move on from the old guard.

• 7:36Bill Simmons?

  So your old guard?

• 7:37Speaker 01

  I'm thinking, I'm thinking Mahomes specifically and that, that's sort of the part of the bracket.

• 7:42Bill Simmons?

  All right. I am.

• 7:43Speaker 01

  Where are you?

• 7:45Bill Simmons?

  I still believe in, I'm like a half and half. Like half from the old guard. I think especially Lamar this year, if he's just not gonna run in the same way anymore.

• 7:55Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 7:55Bill Simmons?

  Burrow is an all time prove year where he's had three good ones and three eh. But we'll see what happens. I got a question from Joe from Charlotte. How many quarterbacks would you put on Marino watch? By my count, maybe three. Burrow for early success, durability probably rules him out. Lamar, in-season dominance, like a playoff production, and then Josh Allen. So I guess Marino watch is like the pressure of, oh shit, I might not actually win a Super Bowl in my entire career. I guess it'd be Marino watch. I kinda like that.

• 8:28Speaker 01

  What about your guy?

• 8:29Bill Simmons?

  My guy's like 23.

• 8:30Speaker 01

  Yeah, but he made it in the second year. It made it to the, that's.

• 8:33Bill Simmons?

  Well, he repeated the Marino thing.

• 8:35Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 8:36Bill Simmons?

  Do you feel like Josh Allen is officially on Marino watch? I like the premise of this.

• 8:41Speaker 01

  I feel like we've gone too far with the Josh Allen hatred. I really do.

• 8:45Bill Simmons?

  Not for me. I think he's the best quarterback in the league.

• 8:48Speaker 01

  Well, you tried to say he's the best regular season quarterback.

• 8:51Bill Simmons?

  I know, I got checkmated.

• 8:52Speaker 01

  I got, but it, but it's true. It's like.

• 8:55Bill Simmons?

  And he's put up big points in playoff games too.

• 8:57Speaker 01

  Yeah, who has put up big points? Whoever, whatever team he's playing. Like in Josh Allen playoff games, the, the defense is allowed 32 points per game and the visual is of Josh Allen failing in the last drive or whatever it is, which sucks cuz that's how you're gonna end your season. But this guy is as consistent as it gets and we'll get to the Bills in a second.

• 9:16Bill Simmons?

  Shades of going Collinsworth there for a second.

• 9:19Speaker 01

  Oh, man, I just, we got an asshole.

• 9:21Bill Simmons?

  I just can't believe, I just can't believe how good Josh Allen is. I can't believe it. House, are you pro or anti Josh Allen superstar?

• 9:29Speaker 02

  Oh, super pro. I love Josh Allen.

• 9:33Bill Simmons?

  I like him too. I don't like the situation he's in this season. And we're gonna do the AFC's first. Buffalo, 10.5 is the over-under. Minus 135 for the division. The Patriots were 14-3 last year, somehow not the favorites. Super Bowl 10-1 for the Bills. Minus 340 playoffs, 5-1, one seed. 13-plus wins, you go plus 250. Under 8.5 is plus 320.

• 9:59Bill Simmons?

  Where are you standing on this one? Do you believe Joe Brady? My what if for this one? We're doing what ifs for every team. Losing McDermott for Joe Brady? What if it makes an already super shaky defense much worse?

• 10:14Speaker 01

  Interesting.

• 10:15Bill Simmons?

  Because McDermott was allegedly a defensive coach. They were not good defensively.

• 10:18Speaker 01

  It might screw things up. I don't know if it could be much worse. I don't know, as far as clutch situations go. But my money's always on them to outscore the other team. Like, I just don't, like, when we do these over unders. First of all, the AFC East used to be a breeze. We used to just take your Patriots to win it. And then for years, we took the Bills.

• 10:36Bill Simmons?

  Pick somebody to win nine games.

• 10:37Speaker 01

  And now we have to think about it, and it sucks. But you have to think in terms of consistency, right? And this guy hasn't missed a game since 2018. He has, they have six straight seasons with 11-plus wins. So why am I gonna take two wins away from them? And it's all because he like pulls off like David Blaine types magic tricks in the red zone. Like, they're phenomenal down low. They will always score, so.

• 11:02Bill Simmons?

  So you'd have them in the 10-win club, which I talked about in part one.

• 11:06Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 11:06Bill Simmons?

  Where it's just like McVay, 10 wins. I think Ben Johnson is now a 10-win club guy.

• 11:11Speaker 01

  Right.

• 11:11Bill Simmons?

  So Alan, you would say, I really have tried to zag against it last year, too. I thought long and hard about how to do it this year. If you're ever gonna do it, this is the year, right? New coach, we have no idea if he's good. The best thing you could say about them is they got DJ Moore, who, as we talked about in part one, all the Bears fans were ready to drive in the airport. Offensive line is good, although McGovern's already hurt.

• 11:39Bill Simmons?

  I don't know, they overhaul the really crappy D, but I'm not, it's kind of like they painted a crappy house a different crappy color, and they're like, look, I painted the house.

• 11:47Speaker 01

  Bradley Chubb's a decent pickup. I know they got the second rounder.

• 11:50Bill Simmons?

  Sure, he wasn't good last year, though.

• 11:51Speaker 01

  Clemson kid, actually, TJ Parker, so they're helping good things with that. They'll have decent pass rush with Rousseau and Chubb, but I don't know. They're favored in 13 games. The Pats are favored in 10. I gave them 11 wins. They won 12 last year.

• 12:08Bill Simmons?

  I don't think one player does more work for the over unders for a team than him year after year.

• 12:13Speaker 01

  Than Alan, yeah.

• 12:14Bill Simmons?

  If you just put, pick anyone, who's a slightly above-average quarterback? Let's put Bo Nix on the Bills.

• 12:22Speaker 01

  Right.

• 12:23Bill Simmons?

  Like, are they a six-win team?

• 12:25Speaker 01

  So if you did wins above replacement for a football quarterback?

• 12:28Bill Simmons?

  We have it, we have it with the spreads. He has the highest if you replace him with the backup.

• 12:32Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 12:33Bill Simmons?

  I had their roster, I had 21 points, which puts them fringe playoff territory. I only had two guys that got points on defense. So even though, and one of them is Benford, who I don't even, not even positive. Their big strengths are Allen, James Cook, who was incredible last year, and then the offensive line.

• 12:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 12:52Bill Simmons?

  I would say they have below-average receivers, top to bottom, right? Even the Patriots have better receivers than them now. They're playing the AFC West and the NFC North, which is rough. Their first five games are reprehensibly hard.

• 13:08Bill Simmons?

  At Houston to start, Detroit on Thursday night. So four days later, after Houston kicks the shit out of them. Chargers, week three, Pats, week four, at home, and then at the Rams, Monday Night Football, week five. So what does their record have to be for you coming out of that?

• 13:26Speaker 01

  Out of five?

• 13:27Bill Simmons?

  Texans, Lions, Chargers, Pats, Rams.

• 13:30Speaker 01

  Three and two.

• 13:31Bill Simmons?

  It feels like three and two.

• 13:32Speaker 01

  Give me three and two.

• 13:33Bill Simmons?

  Then it gets a little easier.

• 13:35Speaker 01

  But you know, it's weird with this 11-plus win teams, like, what was it, two years ago? Was it two or three years ago where they had to win their last six to make the playoffs?

• 13:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 13:43Speaker 01

  Like, they always just seem to find a way. It's just ridiculous how they do it. And, uh, yeah, I don't know, the schedule, they almost always have a first-place schedule. What's weird about that? I want to make fun of the Pats' schedule last year. Look at the extra games. I think I would rather have the Patriots' extra games, even with a first-place schedule, at Houston, at Rams, Baltimore, or at Seattle, at Jacksonville, Pittsburgh. I'd rather have the Pats' games.

• 14:09Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's, one of the big things people are discrediting the Pats with was how easy the schedule was last year.

• 14:15Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 14:15Bill Simmons?

  It's not that hard this year either.

• 14:17Speaker 01

  Right.

• 14:17Bill Simmons?

  It's like, there's some people have it, it's really tough to rank the schedule before the season when we haven't seen everybody, but some people think it's like a top-five easy schedule again.

• 14:26Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 14:28Bill Simmons?

  They have five really hard road games. They only play three games indoors, the Bills. I always like when they're indoors.

• 14:36Bill Simmons?

  But the quarterbacks they go against, Drake May twice, Goff, Herbert, Stafford, Lamar, Mahomes, Jordan Love, Caleb, and Nix. Pretty tough. The best thing they have from a schedule standpoint is the plus-14 net rest, which is second this year.

• 14:51Speaker 01

  Right.

• 14:51Bill Simmons?

  Which I'm still, how, so you believe in the net rest? You've always enjoyed it?

• 14:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, I think it matters, for sure.

• 14:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I wonder if we're overthinking some of this stuff now with net rest and regression, and it's like.

• 15:02Speaker 01

  Of all the metrics, I put net rest like third or four. I know they're supposed to be at the top, but turnover differential, that's way more important to me. Like, the plus-minus on that, like, I don't know.

• 15:14Bill Simmons?

  You know what I like, you know what my advanced stats are? Can you run the ball? Can you stop the run? Can you throw the ball? Can you stop the other team from throwing the ball? And it's really those four things.

• 15:24Speaker 01

  Really?

• 15:24Bill Simmons?

  I'm not convinced the Bills can

• 15:26Speaker 01

  Move the chains?

• 15:26Bill Simmons?

  Stop a team from running the ball or throwing the ball.

• 15:29Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 15:30Bill Simmons?

  And the schedule is harder.

• 15:32Speaker 01

  You're going under.

• 15:34Bill Simmons?

  I am, I'm going, I'm a slight under, I'm 10. It's not a lock, I don't love it.

• 15:40Bill Simmons?

  But I think their schedule is awful, and they really can't afford an injury to Allen or Cook.

• 15:45Speaker 01

  No doubt.

• 15:46Bill Simmons?

  And I have real questions about DJ Moore, you know? Because people are like, DJ Moore, it's, why is everybody so anxious to get rid of DJ Moore? These are two teams now that have been delighted to move off him.

• 15:58Speaker 01

  He doesn't stretch the field, for sure, and that was the problem with the Bills. They didn't have like a burner, right, to get, like, they're very low percentage. The other thing to worry about with the Bills is, we talked about these quarterbacks who just stopped running when they turned 28. He turned 30, I think I just saw in May. What if that stops?

• 16:14Bill Simmons?

  New dad, too.

• 16:15Speaker 01

  That's it, yeah, yeah.

• 16:17Bill Simmons?

  New dad, turning 30, there's some not-running anymore sense. The counter would be, he's superhuman, and unlike Drake May, where I'm terrified he's gonna get hurt.

• 16:26Speaker 01

  Right.

• 16:27Bill Simmons?

  Alan, you're terrified the other guy's gonna get hurt. I'm a slight under, I don't love it, I wouldn't bet it. But I think he has to be in the 10-win club.

• 16:36Speaker 01

  I have 11.

• 16:36Bill Simmons?

  New England Patriots, 10 and 1/2 is the over-under. Division plus 135.

• 16:44Bill Simmons?

  Stupifying to me that they have the same, that Buffalo is just much better for a division odd bet than the Pats. I don't get it. Super Bowl, 17-1. Number one seed, 8-1. 12-plus wins, plus 220, and if you want to short them, under 7 1/2 is plus 380. My what if, talked about it on Tuesday. What if A.J. Brown is a 2007 Moss-like

• 17:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 17:10Bill Simmons?

  super boost for this team? We're not asking for five awesome seasons from him, just give us one fuck-you season. It seems like he wants to do it, right?

• 17:18Speaker 01

  There's a world where, yeah, where maybe throws for 41 touchdowns and 13 go to A.J. Brown. And what was his over-under? I mean, if you get the escalator on the 12-plus, it's ridiculous odds, but.

• 17:31Bill Simmons?

  Their deep threat last year was Booty, who I really liked, and I thought Houston made a smart deal with him. We traded him for a seventh-round pick and a backup safety. That was our deep threat last year.

• 17:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 17:41Bill Simmons?

  Diggs was the other guy who might get open. He played 35, 40 plays a game. And then I wouldn't trust one other guy in the team, so.

• 17:50Speaker 01

  I wanted to come on here and be like, this is it, the ultimate regression team. They played Alcorn State 14 times last year. They're gonna go 3-14, and I can't do it because I think they could arguably be better, on paper at least, than they were last year.

• 18:06Bill Simmons?

  They're definitely better talent-wise than they were last year.

• 18:08Speaker 01

  But with the record, with fewer wins, like, with four fewer wins. I think that's a definite possibility.

• 18:13Bill Simmons?

  Well, they went 14-3, so if they have three less wins, they're still 11-6 and hitting this over.

• 18:18Speaker 01

  Right.

• 18:19Bill Simmons?

  Couple of things, just to, I don't think get mentioned enough when everyone talks about the schedule. They still have Drake May, a rookie deal. Just the biggest advantage you can have in football, right? Now, if they're not gonna use the money to then give Christian Gonzalez a top-five cornerback, you know, for some reason they're lowballing him. Kraft's history of, I don't want to say cheapness, so I'll just say cheapness.

• 18:43Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 18:43Bill Simmons?

  His history of cheapness, a pretty long legacy of trying to cut corners here, and they always seem to have 50, 60 million of open money and money that they can push, but they never actually seem to spend it.

• 18:55Speaker 01

  Well, these owners are hurting, you don't understand.

• 18:57Bill Simmons?

  I know.

• 18:57Speaker 01

  Some of them are spending only $140 on, you know.

• 19:00Bill Simmons?

  Oh, my goodness. It's like, go sell 5% of the team for $1 billion, right? The team's probably worth 10.

• 19:07Speaker 01

  Right.

• 19:09Bill Simmons?

  But, so the Gonzalez thing makes me nervous, but they have Drake May, a rookie deal. They are one of only eight teams that have the same head coach, OC, and DC from last year.

• 19:19Speaker 01

  Right.

• 19:19Bill Simmons?

  So they actually have continuity. My fears are, because they, the O-line's gonna be better, Will Campbell's healthy now.

• 19:26Speaker 01

  They got the kid from Utah, right?

• 19:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they have a little depth. They brought in Byard from the Bears, a little safety, veteran guy in the back.

• 19:35Speaker 01

  He's good.

• 19:36Bill Simmons?

  The reasons to short them, you mentioned the regression, the Vrabel scandal. What happened, is that gonna have any sort of carryover to how he performs this season? I have no idea. And then the Gonzalez contract makes me nervous, but.

• 19:50Speaker 01

  How about this? I have two words for you, maybe you're not familiar with these. Cover six. Have you heard about cover six?

• 19:57Bill Simmons?

  Let's cover six.

• 19:57Speaker 01

  Cover six is a defense that all three playoff teams last year doubled up. Some of them play like 30%. They doubled it up to 60% against Drake Mayby, and it was effective. It's essentially taking away, it's doing a cover two and then four on the other side of the field. And under, oh, read about cover six, because you could be in trouble. Those three playoff teams did it against.

• 20:17Bill Simmons?

  Oh, they did that thing, they're rushing three or four, but dropping everyone back.

• 20:20Speaker 01

  Right, and the Bills did it in their second regular season game against them.

• 20:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 20:24Speaker 01

  And it was effective. I don't know why every team doesn't do this.

• 20:27Bill Simmons?

  I didn't know it was called cover six. I just knew it was called the defense that works against Drake May and last year's Patriots.

• 20:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, I wonder if anyone else pick up on that.

• 20:34Bill Simmons?

  Well, you know what's gonna happen this year? A.J. Brown will just run down the field and get open and then he'll throw it to them.

• 20:39Speaker 01

  He's gonna say goodbye to the six.

• 20:40Bill Simmons?

  And they got Dobbs, too. I mean, A.J. Brown and Dobbs versus what they had last year? It's fucking bonkers. It's a night and day compared to the receiver. They also drafted this tight end in the, either second or third round, Eli Raridan.

• 20:54Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 20:55Bill Simmons?

  Who's this, like, just beast blocker? And they have just more options than they did last year with lineups and stuff.

• 21:02Speaker 01

  Notre Dame, yeah, the big guy.

• 21:03Bill Simmons?

  I have them at 27 points in my roster rankings. And they play the following shit QBs. Rogers, Cousins, Murray, Gino twice, Willis twice. So you figure with Buffalo in the past, that's four wins against the Jets and Dolphins. It's just, that was the hard part with the Bills. Anyway, I'm, uh, I'm going over 11 wins for the Patriots. Not a lot, though.

• 21:28Speaker 01

  Over.

• 21:28Bill Simmons?

  Already have enough pressure on them.

• 21:29Speaker 01

  Over 10 and a half, 211.

• 21:30Bill Simmons?

  Over 10 and a half wins. Yeah, 11.

• 21:32Speaker 01

  I'm going under 10 and a half to 10. I think the Bills have 11. The Patriots have 10.

• 21:37Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 21:37Speaker 01

  And I am not acknowledging.

• 21:38Bill Simmons?

  I flipped that, I have the Pats at 11 and the Bills at 10.

• 21:40Speaker 01

  I'm not acknowledging their Super Bowl appearance. I'm not doing it.

• 21:43Bill Simmons?

  That's fine.

• 21:44Speaker 01

  I mean, you, you and Hench.

• 21:45Bill Simmons?

  Did you make money from the Seahawks at least?

• 21:47Speaker 01

  I did, that I'll acknowledge.

• 21:48Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 21:48Speaker 01

  But, I mean, you, you guys tore, you've, like, he made it in the third less time and Dak Prescott's, like, you didn't make it to the, he didn't make it to the Super Bowl. I likened it to going to Six Flags and waiting in line for two hours, getting to the very top, and then you're on the, whatever, free fall, and you see the drop and you shit in your pants, and you come back down to the box.

• 22:08Bill Simmons?

  You can only play who's in front of you. I don't ever remember people doing this with other football teams.

• 22:14Speaker 01

  But he got scared. He got very, very scared in the Super Bowl.

• 22:16Bill Simmons?

  I don't think he was healthy.

• 22:17Speaker 01

  I know, you keep saying that.

• 22:20Bill Simmons?

  I think if they lose to the Chargers in round one.

• 22:26Speaker 01

  In round one?

• 22:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, last year.

• 22:27Speaker 01

  Oh, last year.

• 22:28Speaker 02

  This most recently.

• 22:29Bill Simmons?

  They go 14-3, they lose to the Chargers, and everybody say, oh, they're young, oh, they added, oh, look out for this team.

• 22:34Speaker 01

  Right.

• 22:34Bill Simmons?

  But the further they went, it actually makes people not like them as much for this year.

• 22:38Speaker 01

  Yeah, wow.

• 22:40Bill Simmons?

  I feel the same way about them as I do with the Bears. I don't think they were a Super Bowl team last year. I don't think the Bears were a 12-win team or whatever they ended up last year. But I think this year was supposed to be the year for both of the teams. And especially when you have Caleb and May in these rookie deals and, you know, it's the biggest advantage you can have. So I hope they take advantage of it.

• 23:01Speaker 01

  I mean, we're completely gonna discount, we're gonna get to the Texans later, but two pitiful quarterback performances in the playoffs.

• 23:09Bill Simmons?

  I'm not discounting it. I really, 95% sure he was hurt, and that's where I've landed. I watched him all year and he didn't look remotely.

• 23:17Speaker 01

  You said today he wasn't hurt. I don't know if you saw, he said in an interview, it was like, don't let anyone try to make excuses for me. I was awful. I wasn't hurt.

• 23:25Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna make excuses. Also, our left tackle was playing on one leg.

• 23:28Speaker 01

  Yeah. That's bad.

• 23:31Bill Simmons?

  New York Jets, over 5.5, division 18-1, playoffs 7-1, 10-plus wins, 8-1. Last year, they're 3-14, they're 6-1, have the worst record this year. So they made two straight conference finals, 2009 and 2010.

• 23:50Speaker 01

  What?

• 23:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, way back one with Rex Ryan. I mean, two straight. I think there's been, in the last 30 years, 120 teams that could have potentially gone back-to-back dating back to 96. And I think it's either 29 or 30 have ever done it. And half of those teams are like, when the Patriots did it for eight years in a row.

• 24:09Speaker 01

  Right.

• 24:09Bill Simmons?

  And the Chiefs did it for seven years in a row. The Jets did this two years in a row. They were in the final four.

• 24:15Speaker 01

  And then?

• 24:16Bill Simmons?

  They have not made the playoffs since. Not, not even, not even a wild card.

• 24:22Speaker 01

  Surely they've come close, no?

• 24:24Bill Simmons?

  It's a 14-team playoffs every year in a 32-team league. It's basically 45% chance.

• 24:30Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 24:31Bill Simmons?

  Never did it.

• 24:31Speaker 01

  Oh, New York, small market, how are they supposed to?

• 24:34Bill Simmons?

  My, what if for you? What if the Jets aren't dumb enough to tank this season?

• 24:41Bill Simmons?

  What if they're just competitive enough that they go 7-10?

• 24:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 24:45Bill Simmons?

  And now get knocked out of the top five and win a couple of games, get their fans excited, and then all of a sudden the merry-go-round stops and there's four quarterbacks available, they get none of them.

• 24:56Speaker 01

  Do you think keeping Aaron Glenn means they're not, it's fine, they're okay with tanking? Like, to me, it's like, I cannot believe that guy is back. And look, I was rooting for him, and I thought he took a lot of shit for celebrating on the sideline when they went to overtime against Tampa, only to lose. But this is a defensive specialist that they brought in, and they did not have one interception over 17 games.

• 25:19Bill Simmons?

  And it seemed like they quit as the, in the last month of the season. That was one of, how many teams just felt like that last month? Like, they were just like, I'm ready to go home.

• 25:27Speaker 01

  You can't have the defense quit on you if you're Aaron Glenn. It's like, that 92 years, no one's had no interception. He's a specialist, and they brought him back. It's like you hiring a painter, and the guy comes out the first day and paints your dog and the hedges, and you're like, all right, well, just come back tomorrow, you'll hit some walls, it'll be fine. I, I don't understand.

• 25:48Bill Simmons?

  Well, apparently he had 22 assistants on last year's staff and replaced 12 of them, including the OC and the DC. Hired Joe House's guy Frank Reich.

• 25:59Speaker 02

  That's not my guy.

• 26:00Bill Simmons?

  Your guy. You said he was the best coach in a conference three years ago.

• 26:04Speaker 02

  I never said it.

• 26:05Bill Simmons?

  100% said it.

• 26:07Speaker 01

  I do remember something about that.

• 26:08Bill Simmons?

  He definitely said it. We joked about it and then texted it, and he got fired in like week 11 in his first season.

• 26:13Speaker 01

  Not House, Frank Reich, yeah.

• 26:15Bill Simmons?

  Frank Reich. Now, House somehow survived.

• 26:18Bill Simmons?

  The good news for the Jets, they loaded up in the draft.

• 26:22Speaker 01

  Three first-round picks, the only team, right?

• 26:24Bill Simmons?

  And they had the 50th pick. So they had four of the top 50. The bad news is, the reason they had two of those three first-rounders is because they traded their two best players on defense for the first-rounders. Got to factor that in. But they are, they're gonna be better, and their offensive line's gonna be better. It might actually be like a top 12 offensive line, maybe.

• 26:48Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 26:49Bill Simmons?

  So I have them as a slide over.

• 26:52Speaker 01

  Yeah, I do, do. You have six wins?

• 26:54Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, right now I have them at 7-10, just because I had trouble finding AFC wins anywhere.

• 26:59Speaker 01

  I had 6-11. The schedule's kind to them. Four of their first eight are against the Titans, Browns, Dolphins, and Raiders. So they could be 4-4 at the halfway point. That could be the exciting story.

• 27:11Bill Simmons?

  Well, it's funny, Titans is week one.

• 27:12Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:13Bill Simmons?

  And then they go Packers, at Lions, at Bears.

• 27:15Speaker 01

  It's the Robert Salig.

• 27:15Bill Simmons?

  And if the Titans were good.

• 27:17Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:18Bill Simmons?

  You'd be like, oh, that could be 0-4, and now what do you do? Do you fire Aaron Glenn? Do you say, fuck it, now let's go for the number one pick? But all the buzz on the Titans has been so bad in the preseason, and I actually think they'll probably beat the Titans.

• 27:32Speaker 01

  We're gonna be overwhelmed in a stupid way by the winner of that Titans-Jets game, I think.

• 27:39Bill Simmons?

  Well, we talked about this.

• 27:40Speaker 01

  Let's not let ourselves do that.

• 27:41Bill Simmons?

  We talked about this, tried to remember it. Midway through the year, we were like, let's remember this for next year, the dumbest week one result. And last year was the Raiders beating the Patriots, which just led to all these different dumb outcomes in our heads that then the opposite happened. That Titans-Jets game is a candidate for what could be the dumbest result.

• 28:02Speaker 01

  I looked through them. But, you know, if you look at the rest of the schedule, there are a lot of games where they should win if they score like 21 or 22 points. I just know with Gino, so Gino went from Seattle, good, to the Raiders, just pathetic. The Jets' offensive line's probably somewhere in between there, and probably enough to win six games.

• 28:21Bill Simmons?

  Gino was an outright atrocity last year, but they couldn't block from him, and he was running for his life. So he's either washed up, or the Raiders thing was, was really bad. They play Malik Willis twice, Cleveland, Cam Ward, Cousins, Brissette, Kyler.

• 28:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 28:38Bill Simmons?

  Maybe can win six, seven of those. I have them at 7-10. I don't feel great about it.

• 28:43Speaker 01

  We both have the Jets over, my god.

• 28:46Bill Simmons?

  I know. I just think it's too low. I mean, what were they last year? They're 3-14, but they traded their two best guys midway through the season, right? And also had, you know, we, we were trying not to talk about regression too much, but that, that was one of the craziest things ever, not having an interception. Okay, Miami Dolphins is the last one. They have a new coach. Let's pour one out for DJ Mikey Mack.

• 29:09Speaker 01

  That's it.

• 29:11Bill Simmons?

  He's done spinning the discs in Miami. The clubs are quiet today.

• 29:16Speaker 01

  He landed on his feet.

• 29:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 29:18Speaker 01

  He's clubbing it out here.

• 29:19Bill Simmons?

  Clubbing it out in San Diego. Miami was 7-10 last year. They're over under is 3.5.

• 29:29Speaker 01

  I had to double check that. I'm like, oh yeah, you're right. Seven and 10.

• 29:32Bill Simmons?

  15 and 1 to make the playoffs? Worst record, they're plus 220.

• 29:36Speaker 01

  Good.

• 29:37Bill Simmons?

  If you want to zag and bet on them to go eight, nine, it's seven, plus 700. I'm going to list their highest paid, highest paid players for you this year. Have you seen this graphic?

• 29:47Speaker 01

  They're somewhere else. Yeah.

• 29:49Bill Simmons?

  Tua, 55.4 million. Not on the team. Tyreek, 28.2, not on the team. Waddle, 23.2, doesn't play for them. Jalen Ramsey, 20.9, not on the team. Fitzpatrick, 13, nope. Zach Seeler, 11.4, on the team. We got one.

• 30:09Speaker 01

  Welcome.

• 30:10Bill Simmons?

  Bradley Chubb, 11, nope. And Armstead, 10.7. So they're eight most expensive guys that they're still paying.

• 30:17Speaker 01

  You said Waddle too?

• 30:19Bill Simmons?

  Waddle, yeah. Seven of the eight are not on the team. They're paying seven of those guys not to play for them.

• 30:23Speaker 01

  Six players, 162 million dollars. The guys are not playing.

• 30:27Speaker 02

  Malik Willis, they're paying Malik something.

• 30:30Bill Simmons?

  I'm just, I just gave you eight guys. Malik is, what was he, 20, but they could spread it out.

• 30:36Speaker 02

  Oh, okay.

• 30:37Speaker 01

  Yeah. Oh, man. I, I, I.

• 30:41Bill Simmons?

  So the only case for them is if you feel like they actually had the worst quarterback situation on one of the top three, Cleveland, Minnesota, Miami, and Willis will actually be pretty good. They're bringing in halfway for the defense and then could there be some sort of, could they just be this funky run team? That five times a year, they just rush for 280 yards on somebody that has a bad front seven and sneak to five wins? I don't think they want to is the problem.

• 31:05Speaker 01

  They don't. They did the bare minimum. They extended Devon Achan, right? Superstar player.

• 31:10Bill Simmons?

  Right. Who they could trade in October.

• 31:12Speaker 01

  And they signed Malik Willis just to have someone back there. Malik Willis, who, did he walk out on practice yesterday? Is that a story? Like, you know, and he takes sacks, this guy, so.

• 31:21Bill Simmons?

  That was a story. He got so frustrated with the offense that he left.

• 31:27Bill Simmons?

  Their wide receivers are.

• 31:28Speaker 01

  I was just going to hit this. Go ahead.

• 31:31Bill Simmons?

  Well, the initial list of who their wide receivers were, two of those guys I don't think are the wide receivers anymore. Who is it? It's Chris Bell?

• 31:40Speaker 01

  Uh, yes, he is out. Yeah. Well.

• 31:43Bill Simmons?

  Who are the receivers?

• 31:44Speaker 01

  Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and Tutu Atwell.

• 31:47Bill Simmons?

  I think two of those guys have been nudged out. I don't even, I think their depth chart now.

• 31:51Speaker 01

  Hold on, I checked the depth chart. Wait, wait. Let me see the.

• 31:53Bill Simmons?

  Well, regardless.

• 31:55Speaker 01

  Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas, Texas Tech. Okay, yeah. Tutu's fourth. Chris Bell's, yeah. Yeah, it's, it's, it's garbage. It's rough. I don't know, you know, again, you don't want to give anyone two wins, but very surprised if this team had more than three.

• 32:12Bill Simmons?

  Offensive line is actually weirdly competent. I wouldn't say it's great, but it's solid.

• 32:16Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 32:17Bill Simmons?

  Secondary is all time. Like they traded Waddle basically for that, uh, Chris Johnson, the cornerback. And if he's not good, I don't even know who's covering receivers for them. It's, and it's not like the pass rush is going to be better either.

• 32:30Speaker 01

  You read the Jets' futility, about 2009, 10, whatever. 25 years since the Dolphins won a playoff game. And on the season ticket this year, it actually says 20, they cross it up, it says 26. Like, don't even expect anything this year.

• 32:42Bill Simmons?

  Jesus.

• 32:42Speaker 01

  That's how it is. House loves Bobby Slowik though.

• 32:45Bill Simmons?

  Lot of Chop Robinson that they have to push. This is a breakout year for Chop. Yeah, Bobby Slowik. Here's the other weird thing about them, and this is why I think there's a real case for the under. They play a lot of good quarterbacks. They have the Drake May, Josh Allen combo four times. Purdy, Mahomes, Burrow, Goff, Caleb, Love, and Herbert. And this is with the worst secondary in the league.

• 33:07Speaker 01

  Oh my God.

• 33:08Bill Simmons?

  So this is going to be one of those situations where it's like, oh, my QB's playing the Dolphins this weekend, like.

• 33:14Speaker 01

  Right. Six of the first nine against playoff games. Yep.

• 33:18Bill Simmons?

  With all that said, I, I'm, I'm ready to be talked into going over and saying they're going to go four and 13. No, I want to talk it out.

• 33:26Speaker 01

  Oh, I thought we just did.

• 33:28Bill Simmons?

  It's either three or four.

• 33:29Speaker 01

  They're favored in one game against the Jets.

• 33:32Bill Simmons?

  Could they do like a funky running thing three times?

• 33:37Speaker 02

  Well, yes, and then, and it's still an under. Three total. Three and 14 is under three and a half wins.

• 33:44Speaker 01

  I think it's a battle to the grave with the Cardinals for that first pick.

• 33:48Bill Simmons?

  Think you're right. I, I think if you're going to go over with the Jets, you're not allowed to also go over with the Dolphins.

• 33:54Speaker 01

  Right.

• 33:54Bill Simmons?

  Is a good way to think about this.

• 33:56Speaker 01

  13 draft picks though, so maybe in a couple of years it'll figure out.

• 34:00Bill Simmons?

  At Raiders, at Niners, home Chiefs, at Vikings, home Bengals.

• 34:08Bill Simmons?

  Basically, the Raiders is a must win game if you're going over. I think if they lose that game, it's, it's a wrap. You're not getting the over on that. House, give us your AFC's thoughts.

• 34:17Speaker 02

  So I'm in lockstep with the cousin Sal. Um, the Buffalo Bills haven't lost, uh, well, I'll say it the other way around. Have won at least 11 games since 2018. So if Josh Allen's the quarterback and he plays, then the Buffalo Bills are going to win 11 games. I really am intrigued by this New England situation because I think that they're a 10 or 11 win team. But I'm, I'm going to sit tight. I want them to, to start the season off one and three. They, they are at Seattle, they're home against Pittsburgh, they're at Jacksonville, they're at Buffalo. If the Patriots come out one and three, I am, the win totals that will be available at that point in the season, four weeks in, mark your calendar right now.

• 34:59Speaker 02

  Get in there and jump on Patriots 10 wins at that point.

• 35:03Speaker 01

  He's still injured. You could see, he can't, he can't throw, he can't rear back. That's all we're going to hear. One and three.

• 35:08Bill Simmons?

  That feels like two and two.

• 35:10Speaker 02

  Okay, I, I don't disagree. I'm rooting for one and three.

• 35:12Bill Simmons?

  The greatest thing about that, if you had the Pats over, if they somehow won the Seattle game, you'd be like, oh my God.

• 35:18Speaker 02

  Right.

• 35:19Bill Simmons?

  That was the guaranteed loss of all of these.

• 35:21Speaker 02

  That your, your best price is going to come from them being a little bit, you know, where people have questions.

• 35:26Bill Simmons?

  So you have Buffalo for the division too?

• 35:27Speaker 02

  I do. Yeah.

• 35:29Bill Simmons?

  Jets over?

• 35:29Speaker 02

  Jets over, yep. The Jets have eight new starters on defense. The Jets went out and got Minka Fitzpatrick and, and David Onyata and all these guys. Crazy.

• 35:38Bill Simmons?

  I kind of liked what they did.

• 35:40Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 35:41Bill Simmons?

  There's, I won't name names, but there's a couple of Jets fans in my life, not fantasy. Who are like weirdly optimistic about this Jets team. I think it's kind of hit the, you know, if we can just get Gino back to the Gino from two years ago. I do like the tight end, Sadiq. I think he's going to be good.

• 36:00Speaker 01

  Yeah. Oregon kid. Yeah.

• 36:02Bill Simmons?

  But we'll see. All right. So NFC, I'm sorry, AFC, no locks for us in this.

• 36:09Speaker 01

  Nah.

• 36:11Bill Simmons?

  You have Buffalo, New England. I have New England, Buffalo. And if you do either of those with Jets three, Miami four. I mean, the, the, the higher money thing would be to do the Pats. Go Pats, Bills, Jets, Miami is probably at least like five to one.

• 36:27Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's probably five to one, six to one range.

• 36:29Speaker 01

  We'll do this next week, but, um, Jets third place, I think is even odds.

• 36:35Bill Simmons?

  Really?

• 36:35Speaker 01

  Yeah. Isn't that good?

• 36:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's pretty good.

• 36:38Speaker 01

  You have to root for them just enough.

• 36:40Bill Simmons?

  All right. That's it for the AFC. It's coming back with, uh, the AFC North after this.

• 36:46Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Before the football season begins, every team is undefeated. That's right. Even the Jets. Every fan believes this could be the year that they, the team makes the playoffs. Maybe even lifts the trophy. FanDuel, they're right in there with it. You can bet on all of it. You can use your NFL futures rewards stack for an even bigger payout. FanDuel giving everyone five 50% PBTs. That's right, five. Can only be used from Thursday, 8/27 until end of day, Monday, 8/31. So unlock and use them before it's too late. Take some advice from me and the Cuz. Check out our favorite futures picks. Get your bets in today on FanDuel. Visit fanduel.com/BS to get started.

• 37:31Bill Simmons?

  21 plus select states or 18 plus DC, Kentucky, Wyoming. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER, call 888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. AFC North, Baltimore Ravens, they're over under is 10 and a half. Some juice on the over. Division, plus 105. Super Bowl, 11-1. Playoffs, minus 300. Number one seed, plus 410. 12 plus wins, plus 125.

• 38:03Bill Simmons?

  Under nine and F wins plus 200. They were eight and nine last year. My question for you.

• 38:11Bill Simmons?

  What if Jesse Minter? Is a massive upgrade over Zombie John Harbaugh?

• 38:17Speaker 01

  Zombie John?

• 38:18Speaker 02

  Oh, that's a good one.

• 38:19Bill Simmons?

  Zombie John.

• 38:19Speaker 02

  Zombie John.

• 38:20Bill Simmons?

  He's just like, um, I'm still coaching.

• 38:23Speaker 02

  The New York Giants.

• 38:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 38:25Speaker 02

  Zombie John.

• 38:26Bill Simmons?

  Zombie John gave that New York Giants speech.

• 38:29Speaker 01

  Oh, man.

• 38:30Bill Simmons?

  You play for the New York Giants.

• 38:34Speaker 01

  Why did they clip that out?

• 38:36Bill Simmons?

  I don't know.

• 38:36Speaker 01

  They put that on their social media.

• 38:38Bill Simmons?

  It's like, you know how our wives have? Friends that they'll send the Instagram photo they're thinking about posting to make sure that they look okay? And then you have to like get the approval. It should be that way for the football teams with these social clips. There should have been somebody in the Giants like, no, we're not posting that. He looks like an idiot.

• 38:55Speaker 01

  You gave a pep talk to the Ringer staff and like everyone was just like looking at their phone. You would fire the social media person.

• 39:00Bill Simmons?

  I was like, this is the Ringer.

• 39:04Bill Simmons?

  We work for the Ringer. It was like a Will Ferrell speech.

• 39:09Speaker 01

  Very weird.

• 39:10Bill Simmons?

  I drive a Dodge Stratus.

• 39:13Speaker 01

  That never gave him.

• 39:13Bill Simmons?

  You play for the Giants.

• 39:17Speaker 01

  And now he's gone.

• 39:18Bill Simmons?

  I have thoughts on this, but I'll throw it to you and the Ravens. What if Jesse Minter is good?

• 39:23Speaker 01

  Yeah, that would help, right? So, and they have like a 29 year old offensive coordinator. So it all, it all helps. They're.

• 39:31Bill Simmons?

  Declan Doyle.

• 39:33Speaker 01

  Declan Doyle.

• 39:34Bill Simmons?

  Great name. That sounds like a Showtime show.

• 39:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 39:37Bill Simmons?

  It's like new, new from Showtime, Declan Doyle.

• 39:40Speaker 01

  Did you, uh?

• 39:41Bill Simmons?

  He's a cop on the edge.

• 39:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, Declan Doyle. Get that badge. They signed Trey Hendrickson. You say there's no karma in football, but that Max Crosby, how they took advantage of the disabled Raiders. And.

• 39:55Bill Simmons?

  But the Ravens do that shit every year.

• 39:56Speaker 01

  Yeah. This year it hurt. They got Trey Hendrickson, but maybe the karma is they lose Tyler Lindenbaum. Uh, to free agency and now they have a center out.

• 40:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 40:05Speaker 01

  That's tough.

• 40:06Bill Simmons?

  Third stringer.

• 40:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, you always talk about it, right?

• 40:08Bill Simmons?

  Signing the old guy from the Browns.

• 40:09Speaker 01

  Second, right? So, um, the funniest move they did was extending, and I know you like this, the Zay Flowers. And they gave him just a ton of money. And like, to me, uh, I think the litmus test is. They're treating this guy like a superstar, but if NBC was like promoting next week's game, like Baltimore against.

• 40:29Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 40:30Speaker 01

  You know, the Chargers, it would be Herbert. And if they put Zay Flowers up, would, would you chuckle? If you chuckle, then it's a terrible signing, giving all this money. I think we're at that chuckle point. So, I don't know.

• 40:42Bill Simmons?

  It's like in NBA with the last guy introduced in the starting lineup. So if I'm like, ooh.

• 40:47Speaker 01

  Right.

• 40:48Bill Simmons?

  Yikes.

• 40:49Speaker 01

  There's a reason.

• 40:50Bill Simmons?

  Who's going to be the last guy for the whiz this year, House? Trey, Trey Young or Anthony Davis?

• 40:55Speaker 02

  AJ DeBansa, what are you talking about?

• 40:57Bill Simmons?

  He's gonna be the last guy. Over Trey Young?

• 41:01Speaker 02

  He's the most exciting player as the number one draft pick.

• 41:03Bill Simmons?

  I don't think that's happening.

• 41:04Speaker 01

  Some of you guys.

• 41:07Speaker 01

  Lamar, since his calf injury, what was it? Right? But, but he 25 yards per game rushing. And that's big. We talk about these guys all going from 28 to 29 years old, whatever that.

• 41:18Bill Simmons?

  Really shocking when you look at the pro reference, pro football reference, the career and watching the attempts and the yards.

• 41:23Speaker 01

  Right. And I hate to harp on it, but it's big. I mean, on third and four, that was really a lot of times their only outlet, like to continue to drive. So trenches were bad, 26th in pass blocking, 28th in sacks on the other side.

• 41:38Bill Simmons?

  Offensive land is the thing that probably worries me the most.

• 41:40Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 41:41Bill Simmons?

  I don't think it's going to be bad, but I don't think it's going to be good either. They just need to be mediocre. Two things that jump out.

• 41:50Bill Simmons?

  Maybe top three easiest schedule in the league. First seven.

• 41:54Speaker 01

  Early's, yeah.

• 41:55Bill Simmons?

  First seven, it's like, how are you not six and one after these first seven? I talked to Mallory last night, cause for help for the AFC North. At Colts, Saints, at Cowboys, Titans, at Falcons, at Browns, Bengals.

• 42:06Speaker 01

  Cowboys is in Rio, but yeah.

• 42:10Bill Simmons?

  Should be five and two minimum. Those are some of the worst teams in the league.

• 42:14Speaker 01

  And they were two and five to start last year, right? So.

• 42:17Bill Simmons?

  Good QBs they play, which is another thing I love to look at. This was a huge for the Pats last year because they played no good QBs. Borough twice, Dak, Josh Allen, Lawrence, Herbert. That's it. Basically seven out of the 17 games.

• 42:34Bill Simmons?

  I'm all in on Jesse Minter.

• 42:37Bill Simmons?

  And my favorite thing to do, I talked about this in the part one is. The coach that can come in and do Mike Vrabel. Especially if they're following the shitty coach, Mike Vrabel following Mayo. Or Dan Quinn following, who is the crappy guy? Ron Rivera?

• 42:52Speaker 02

  Yeah, Riverboat Ron.

• 42:54Bill Simmons?

  And it's just so easy. It's like, oh, that, that's worth six wins. We didn't really have that situation this year with the new coach hires. But I think the two new coach hires that were the significant ones, this is one of them. Because it's like, oh, John Harbaugh was good. He won all those games. I actually think he's going to be a massive upgrade. I thought he was unbelievable with the Chargers last year. That was like one of the best coordinator coaching jobs anyone did. I, their defense was kinda old. They had injuries and it just didn't seem to matter. They were flying around. And I, I was one over, as you know, I overreact to social media videos in, in August. And quotes from teammates about players on their team that are young players or rookies. That video of him singing Eminem as the whole locker room is going nuts.

• 43:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 43:38Bill Simmons?

  I was like, I've seen enough. The, the jury's in.

• 43:43Speaker 01

  Should Harbaugh have tried that with the Giants?

• 43:45Bill Simmons?

  You have the Harbaugh thing on one where it's, he's doing Will Ferrell. And then you have Jesse Minter singing for his team and they're all fucking losing their minds. 12 and five. I'm way over. Way over.

• 43:58Speaker 01

  So is this a lock?

• 43:59Bill Simmons?

  This is a lock.

• 44:00Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 44:01Speaker 01

  Can I say this is, I'm jealous of this take now? Like if I could change.

• 44:04Bill Simmons?

  Take it, take it right now.

• 44:05Speaker 01

  I'm locked into 10.

• 44:06Bill Simmons?

  We're all friends.

• 44:07Speaker 01

  No, no, not after this.

• 44:08Bill Simmons?

  So you're going under?

• 44:09Speaker 01

  I'm going 10. Well, it's, it's a good year. It's 10. It's the playoffs.

• 44:13Bill Simmons?

  I have, and then 12 plus wins, there's been some juice on the Ravens, but 12 plus wins is plus 125.

• 44:20Bill Simmons?

  I mean, AFC South and NFC South are the divisions.

• 44:22Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 44:22Bill Simmons?

  The quarterbacks I mentioned.

• 44:24Speaker 01

  Like, and I'm jealous.

• 44:26Bill Simmons?

  And honestly, if you read between the lines, you talk to, like Mallory and I were talking about it last night. The Ravens fans was, Harbaugh was driving them to the airport status for everybody. Seems like it was the case for Lamar too. There's a little fuck you with Lamar, I think this season.

• 44:42Speaker 01

  Really?

• 44:42Bill Simmons?

  Like, oh, you're counting me out. Oh, you think this was a big loss that we lost this fucking clown Harbaugh? I'm not saying he said this, but I think he's gonna have a little. Little ump to him. Derrick Henry, oh, you're counting me out. You think I'm old? You think I can't do this again? It's just a fucking, this is a chip on the shoulder team.

• 45:00Speaker 01

  Interesting.

• 45:00Bill Simmons?

  Jesse Minter proving that he belongs with the big boys. We have a new coach every year that crushes it. Just, it's a lock. I think he's the coach.

• 45:07Speaker 01

  All right. I mean, honestly, the, counting us out, that's the only thing you would go against. Like what if their running game is non-existent with Lamar getting older and choosing not to run? Derrick Henry finally, the touches carrying, uh, catching up with him. But other than that, you're probably right.

• 45:23Bill Simmons?

  Week five at Atlanta. And their shitty defense.

• 45:29Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 45:29Bill Simmons?

  Collinsworth. I think they're gonna have to hose them down.

• 45:32Speaker 01

  That's an NBC game?

• 45:33Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Oh, Mike. My God, the Lamar, we, anyone who thinks Lamar isn't back, come on, come on.

• 45:44Speaker 01

  I mean, Arthur Blank could have signed this guy. He's kicking himself, right? Get his camera and Arthur Blank in the luxury box, just beating himself up.

• 45:53Bill Simmons?

  They'll win that game 52 to 10, then next week lose to the Browns in Cleveland. Cause that happens every year. I'm really hard, aggressive over Ravens.

• 46:04Speaker 01

  Seven to 12 is tough. Cincy, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Chargers.

• 46:07Bill Simmons?

  Yep.

• 46:08Speaker 01

  Panthers, Texans. So five playoff teams in a row, plus Cincy.

• 46:12Bill Simmons?

  Cincy, the sexy team du jour in the AFC East. Sorry to say du jour and make you hungry, House. House hears du jour, he thinks of soup, he thinks of.

• 46:21Speaker 02

  I do like soup.

• 46:22Bill Simmons?

  The specials.

• 46:22Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 46:24Bill Simmons?

  What special, House?

• 46:26Speaker 02

  Oh.

• 46:27Bill Simmons?

  When you're, when the waiter comes over, what's the number one thing where you're like, oh?

• 46:32Speaker 02

  You mean like it's not on the menu? Here's what tonight's special is?

• 46:34Bill Simmons?

  When he's talking about steaks, fish.

• 46:36Speaker 02

  We've, we've covered this territory because it is special, the veal chop. Oh, we have a veal chop tonight. We're gonna do it with a little more solace, a little.

• 46:45Bill Simmons?

  What if they gave you the pounded veal millionaire, veal chop millionaise?

• 46:48Speaker 02

  Phenomenal. That's a.

• 46:50Bill Simmons?

  That's a blind order for me.

• 46:51Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 46:51Bill Simmons?

  Veal chop millionaise at a nice restaurant. It's like, great. That sounds awesome.

• 46:56Speaker 01

  I, I tune on, I almost always tune the specials out.

• 46:59Bill Simmons?

  You do?

• 46:59Speaker 02

  Why?

• 47:00Bill Simmons?

  You've already decided. You're like the Ravens.

• 47:02Speaker 01

  Well.

• 47:02Bill Simmons?

  I've already decided on 10 and 7. I don't want to hear your opinions.

• 47:05Speaker 01

  What's your track record with specials? Like mine's like 10%. So with that in mind.

• 47:09Bill Simmons?

  It is special to the restaurant. The chef's like, I was excited to make this tonight.

• 47:12Speaker 01

  You gotta pretend, you know?

• 47:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 47:14Speaker 01

  But you're not even, uh, what do I care? What, he almost definitely has different tastes than I do.

• 47:20Bill Simmons?

  Well, Cincy is the sexy team du jour.

• 47:22Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 47:23Bill Simmons?

  Their over is up to 10 and a half inexplicably. They were six and 11 last year. Minus 198 for the playoffs. Plus 165 for the division. 21 for the Super Bowl. You can super short them and go under seven and a half for them at plus 420. Which, which, which guy in Ringer wise guys is gonna do that?

• 47:44Speaker 02

  What's

• 47:44Bill Simmons?

  It feels the bundle ish. Yeah, they

• 47:47Speaker 02

  We've already covered this.

• 47:48Bill Simmons?

  The hard all that is shorter.

• 47:50Speaker 01

  Uh, yeah, I can't remember. Yeah.

• 47:52Speaker 02

  Nobody came out.

• 47:53Speaker 01

  Really?

• 47:53Bill Simmons?

  Four twenties.

• 47:56Bill Simmons?

  That's under seven and 10. So that's a five week Borough injury.

• 48:00Speaker 01

  They could do that. They could do that.

• 48:03Bill Simmons?

  My what if for you? Never mentioned in all of the we love the Bengals regression schedule so much easier. Joe Burrow. What if the Bengals can't block for Joe Burrow again? Because I don't think they're going to be able to.

• 48:17Speaker 01

  They didn't do it. First of all, it sucks that their defense was maybe worse than their offensive line, which can never protect Joe Burrow.

• 48:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 48:24Speaker 01

  And they decided to put all their assets into defense, all the picks.

• 48:28Bill Simmons?

  But with, but with part of the logic being if we improve our defense, that makes it easier for Joe.

• 48:34Speaker 01

  He won't have to be on the field.

• 48:35Bill Simmons?

  It's like, right. Does that make it easier for Joe? He's, he's still running for his life when you run plays for him. How is that easier? I would rather got an offensive line.

• 48:45Speaker 01

  It's bad, but they did score 37 back to back games and lost both. So I think that has to be the concern. But then again, you're right. Yeah, he's played six years. He's made it to the finish line, three of those six or whatever has, has.

• 48:59Bill Simmons?

  Honestly, wasn't playing that well last year before he went down.

• 49:02Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 49:03Bill Simmons?

  He gave up 492 points last year.

• 49:05Speaker 01

  The Super Bowl year, he wasn't that, wasn't his best year either. I want to talk about Zach Taylor because this is the hottest of hot seats like.

• 49:12Bill Simmons?

  He's number one hot seat, right?

• 49:13Speaker 01

  This is hot ones. What, what flavor of hot is this house? Is this like Armageddon?

• 49:18Speaker 02

  Yeah, whatever the atomic one, one of the last two or three.

• 49:21Speaker 01

  Yeah, torchbearer.

• 49:22Bill Simmons?

  The only reason I don't think it's the hottest is because they're so fucking cheap. They would have to do the calculus of paying two coaches.

• 49:28Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 49:29Bill Simmons?

  Like, how much is the extra is this going to cost?

• 49:31Speaker 01

  Well, what, what happens if you promote an assistant in the middle of the year?

• 49:34Speaker 02

  The interim is an assistant and they just promote the assistant.

• 49:37Speaker 01

  He had excuses. I don't think he has them this year. If Borough makes it or not, I think this is it.

• 49:41Bill Simmons?

  I wrote, it's funny you said hot seat. I wrote make or break coach this year.

• 49:45Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 49:45Bill Simmons?

  Just like, this is it. I did. There's no way he comes back if they don't make it. Also Borough has not made the playoffs. Since 2022. And I do wonder if there's a world where Mahomes doesn't get concussed in that playoff game, which he clearly got concussed and then they left him in.

• 50:02Speaker 01

  They don't even make it that far.

• 50:03Bill Simmons?

  Cost the three of us a lot of money.

• 50:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 50:05Bill Simmons?

  And also led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. And Joe Burrow has never been in a Super Bowl. Mahomes just makes it again. Like, do we talk about him a little differently?

• 50:14Speaker 01

  Right.

• 50:14Bill Simmons?

  He's just become Dak Prescott at that point.

• 50:16Speaker 01

  Maybe.

• 50:17Bill Simmons?

  Way better pass rush, easy schedule and.

• 50:23Speaker 01

  Easy Patriots-esque schedule, right?

• 50:24Bill Simmons?

  That's about it.

• 50:25Speaker 01

  Extra games at Miami, at Washington, home for KC, no short week games, right? They, uh, they finally took a center in the fourth round, but otherwise it was all defense. They signed Dexter Lawrence. They get him from the Giants. Their second round.

• 50:40Bill Simmons?

  They traded him basically. They

• 50:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 50:42Bill Simmons?

  Gave up the 10th pick in the draft for him.

• 50:44Speaker 01

  Right. That was it. So the first pick was a second round pick. This guy has historically short arms, they say. Cassius Howell, the edge, but he's supposed to also help. Third, third easiest strength of schedule.

• 50:56Bill Simmons?

  I have their roster at 17 points. Borough is eight of those points. He has an eight. Josh Allen was a nine, Borough was an eight. Chase was a five. Highest receiver points you can get in my system, five. Higgins was two. So just 15 points for those three guys. I had the offensive line as a minus one. You could talk me into a minus two for them and Lawrence has three points and no other guys got points. And this is like, I take the player ranking thing seriously. I don't know if it always works, but I read all the lists. Like ESPN has a great list, PFF. They have four good players. I don't understand how we're penciling them in for 11 wins. I don't care how easy the schedule is. I don't see what's different about them than last year. I don't really get the case.

• 51:40Speaker 01

  I don't normally bite on Cincinnati. I'm always like, uh, yeah, this is a sexy thing. I don't know why I'm going over. I probably wish I could reverse what I did, you know, you did with the Ravens and Bengals, but I'm going, I'd go over 10 and a half at plus 105. What is, that's their number?

• 51:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, 10 and a half.

• 51:56Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 51:57Bill Simmons?

  They play, the only good QBs they play are Lamar twice, Mahomes, Lawrence and Daniels. And then they move into the Stroud, Rogers, two times, Baker, Shuck.

• 52:09Bill Simmons?

  Bryce and Daniel Jones and his one leg. And then they play Watson twice, Willis, Cam Ward and Tua slash Penix.

• 52:18Speaker 01

  I think what I'm looking at, giving them 11 wins.

• 52:20Bill Simmons?

  I went 10 wins, even though I don't even like the team. I just feel like they're going to score 30 points 10 times against a shitty team, right?

• 52:27Speaker 01

  Yeah. And, you know, take it for what it's worth, favored in 15 games.

• 52:32Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 52:33Speaker 01

  15 and 17.

• 52:33Bill Simmons?

  That matters.

• 52:34Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 52:35Bill Simmons?

  I just, 11 wins seems rich for me considering.

• 52:38Speaker 01

  Right.

• 52:39Bill Simmons?

  A, they can't block. B, Borough injury potential. C, how many times, how many games did Chase and Higgins play together?

• 52:49Speaker 01

  Right.

• 52:49Bill Simmons?

  I always feel like one of them is banged up or Higgins goes out for three, four weeks. So I don't know. 10 wins seems, the under seems safe because if there's an injury to Chase or an injury to Borough or an injury to Lawrence, like any of those three guys, you could say this about a lot of teams, but especially this team. Like they have no room for error with their star players. So under for me.

• 53:10Speaker 01

  You don't like Flacco coming in in relief?

• 53:12Bill Simmons?

  No. Pittsburgh Steelers, their over under is eight and a half. Five to one for the division. Um, a couple of Ringer wise guys kicked the tires on that one a little bit. Playoffs plus 160. 10 plus wins is plus 180. I would do that over playoffs because I think, I think it's going to be 10 in the AFC.

• 53:32Bill Simmons?

  Under five and a half wins is plus 380. Um, a couple of what ifs here.

• 53:37Bill Simmons?

  What if Rogers cannot make it through the season at age 42?

• 53:41Speaker 01

  Whoa, whoa. Bombshell.

• 53:44Bill Simmons?

  Well, what if? Is there any chance with Drew Aller that they could still hit the over?

• 53:49Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 53:50Bill Simmons?

  The preseason was pretty impressive for, for our guy Drew.

• 53:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 53:54Bill Simmons?

  And

• 53:56Bill Simmons?

  I don't, yeah, I don't, I don't feel, I feel like they could go nine and eight, even if Rogers doesn't finish the season. What are your thoughts on that?

• 54:03Speaker 01

  Uh, that's interesting. I do have him playing over three and a half games at the line I made up in my head. I don't know that this reincarnation of, uh, you know, Mike McCarthy and I don't know if this, this isn't the offense he signed up for. This guy throws 30% of his passes beyond, behind or at the line of scrimmage.

• 54:24Bill Simmons?

  And they're trying to stretch it out.

• 54:26Speaker 01

  Yeah, we could cry. I mean, everything was as good as it could be for the Steelers last year, right? Like they were 10 and seven. To say they're going to regress two games and break that streak. And by the way, I wish they had a camera on Mike Tomlin when they officially go eight, nine, because that's where I have them here. But yeah, it's, uh, it's all Rogers. Thanks for coming back, but I will not take the fifth as I review his putrid, putrid stats here. 32nd in success rate, 33rd in air yards, 28th third and three and outs. Dead last completion under pressure. There you go. I said it. I feel patriotic.

• 55:01Bill Simmons?

  Rooted for the team that he had the good game against or bet on the team that he had the good game against. All the times it happened.

• 55:08Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 55:09Bill Simmons?

  I felt like I was 0 for 6.

• 55:10Speaker 01

  How lucky could they get? Borough was out, the Ravens started one and five, two and five, the Browns with the Browns.

• 55:15Bill Simmons?

  There's some injuries on the defense.

• 55:17Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 55:18Bill Simmons?

  There's a week 13 game. They go Broncos, Black Friday at home. And then the next week, Sunday night football against the Texans. And Tomlin's going to be there obviously, or it's a Tomlin game. And that is the worst possible defense for a 42 year old.

• 55:35Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 55:35Bill Simmons?

  Aaron Rodgers. I just felt they'll be cutting the Tomlin, kind of be like.

• 55:42Bill Simmons?

  All right. So I mentioned, I mentioned the coaches thing with, when we were talking about, uh,

• 55:48Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 55:48Bill Simmons?

  Minter, about how this year it's weird with the coaching changes because they're, the ones that I think are going to be significant aren't necessarily the ones you would think. Kind of feel that way about Pittsburgh. I think my other what if would be what if Tomlin was kind of washed the last couple of years? Their offense was an abomination. They have good players in their defense. Like I had in my player rankings, five guys have points in that defense. Everybody loves their front seven.

• 56:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 56:14Bill Simmons?

  Right? Especially if they can revive TJ Watt, like special teams pretty good.

• 56:20Speaker 01

  D'Amel Dean.

• 56:21Bill Simmons?

  Their front seven is going to be awesome. Yeah.

• 56:23Speaker 01

  Really good.

• 56:24Bill Simmons?

  And him and, and, uh, they got it Pittman, which I think was important. They got Dowdell, who I've always liked.

• 56:30Speaker 01

  I feel like they've set Rogers up better than they did last year.

• 56:32Bill Simmons?

  This team's good. I, I actually think they're pretty talented and, uh,

• 56:36Speaker 01

  You're going to go nine, 10 wins? What are you doing?

• 56:39Bill Simmons?

  Well, here's the thing with the McCarthy. He has basically the exact same credentials with the records as Harbaugh and Peyton.

• 56:48Bill Simmons?

  They all won a Super Bowl. They have all around the same with the wins. Like if you, if you hid the names, it just looked the thing. You wouldn't know who's who.

• 56:54Speaker 01

  Right.

• 56:55Bill Simmons?

  I just feel like this is 10 and seven. And maybe even a little bit higher. I think their offense is gonna be way better. He's good at offense. You had him in Dallas.

• 57:05Speaker 01

  I know.

• 57:06Bill Simmons?

  Their offense put up, their offense did shit.

• 57:09Speaker 01

  Our, our quarterback throws beyond the line of scrimmage, though.

• 57:12Bill Simmons?

  True.

• 57:12Speaker 01

  Do I have to take you through those numbers again?

• 57:14Bill Simmons?

  I get it.

• 57:15Speaker 01

  And I know they get a wide receiver Alabama they're excited about and all that, but uh, I, I just, I don't like the schedule at all. I feel like they have to go six and three before that mid stretch of Cincinnati, Philly, Denver on Black Friday, at Jacksonville and Baltimore. That is crushing in that middle.

• 57:30Bill Simmons?

  Week 10 to 15.

• 57:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, 10 to 15. That's it.

• 57:33Bill Simmons?

  Cleveland twice, Atlanta, Jones, Shuck, Bryce and Ward. So they have seven bad QB games, basically, which is okay.

• 57:43Speaker 01

  I think they're collapse proof, though, pretty much, because they knuckleball their way to wins. They win these clownish games. So that's why I have them at eight and nine, but.

• 57:52Bill Simmons?

  Zero indoor games for the Steelers. Outdoors for four plus months.

• 57:57Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 57:57Speaker 02

  I think that's fine.

• 57:58Bill Simmons?

  I think that's good for them, though.

• 57:59Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 58:00Bill Simmons?

  They beat the Falcons week one. Patriot, at Patriots, Bengals, at Browns, home Colts. I genuinely think that's four and one.

• 58:11Speaker 01

  They're gonna have, that's what they're gonna have to be with those other games we, we mentioned.

• 58:14Bill Simmons?

  The problem for them is they lose to the Browns or have a weird game against the Browns every year. They have week eight, November 1st, Browns, Thursday night football. Oh, I'm already predicting that's one of the five weirdest games of the year.

• 58:27Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 58:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that'll be decided by something bizarre.

• 58:33Bill Simmons?

  I like this team, though. I think, I think this is the 10-win team, not the Bengals.

• 58:37Speaker 01

  Wow. You think the outdoor games help?

• 58:39Bill Simmons?

  I had the Bengals 10 wins, too. I think, I think it'll come down to the matchups. I think they're gonna get the playoff spot, not the Bengals.

• 58:45Speaker 01

  No kidding.

• 58:46Bill Simmons?

  I have the Bengals at either nine or 10, but I think that Steelers get the 10.

• 58:50Speaker 01

  I mean, they face the number three pass defense right now, this year, uh, in their schedules. I don't, I don't know. I don't know how he does it.

• 58:58Bill Simmons?

  I like the vibes. I like everything I'm seeing from the training camp, and I think Tomlin, I think that just got weird. I think, you know, you're the coach of the team and everybody kinda knows it's ending and he almost didn't come back the previous year. I just.

• 59:13Speaker 02

  You, you say all that, but remember, go back and look year over year over year, their record in one-score games, their, and, and the record of the Steelers as underdogs. Nobody matches Tomlin for that. And they, they ran that playbook to a T last year.

• 59:28Speaker 01

  Seven and three last year, one score, plus 12 turnover margin. You know, I, I just think.

• 59:33Bill Simmons?

  Well, can't they have the DNA from that with also having a better offense?

• 59:36Speaker 01

  Yeah, they could get, the funny thing is they're gonna get as far as they did. That, that's absolutely the furthest. Who'd they play? Houston the first round?

• 59:43Speaker 02

  And got smoked.

• 59:44Speaker 01

  You play the outdoor game, and now you got a 40 something year old quarterback.

• 59:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 59:48Speaker 01

  Who has to get ball, rid of the ball.

• 59:49Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I don't think they're winning a playoff round. I just think that there's a path for 10 and seven. And most of it has to do with Cincinnati, who I kinda wish I'd picked for nine and eight, but I just, I couldn't, I really had trouble finding AFC wins. I was really low on everybody. Like, I added it up and I was like, ah, fuck, like, I'm seven wins lower than I need to be.

• 1:00:09Speaker 01

  Don't tip your hand here. You added seven wins.

• 1:00:12Speaker 02

  You gave five of the first, we, we've done two divisions in the AFC and you have five of those teams at at least 10 wins.

• 1:00:18Speaker 01

  Yeah, he found, he found the place.

• 1:00:20Speaker 02

  He has Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincy.

• 1:00:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:00:24Speaker 02

  New England and Buffalo. All at 10, that's 50 wins.

• 1:00:27Speaker 01

  And I know he has Houston at 15 wins, so.

• 1:00:30Speaker 02

  I don't think.

• 1:00:31Bill Simmons?

  Maybe I need to move Cincinnati to nine and eight.

• 1:00:33Speaker 01

  Move them to the NFC.

• 1:00:37Bill Simmons?

  All right, last one is Cleveland. Cleveland was my favorite sleeper for about two weeks during the part of the summer when you start talking yourself into teams.

• 1:00:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:00:46Bill Simmons?

  Their over-under is five and a half. Playoffs plus 640, worst record six to one. Last year, they were five and 12.

• 1:00:55Bill Simmons?

  They had a harder schedule, a worse roster, and the same terrible QB situation they're in now. Um, they also had Myles Garrett and they had Jim Schwartz.

• 1:01:05Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:01:05Bill Simmons?

  And Stefanski. Um, what if the Browns, bracket, they get like a C minus from the QB position? What if Watson has a little bit of a turnaround or Sanders comes in, like, just a C minus, not even a C plus?

• 1:01:20Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:01:21Bill Simmons?

  Could this team win like eight games?

• 1:01:23Speaker 01

  No, C minus still gets them the seven games, I think.

• 1:01:26Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:01:27Speaker 01

  I think. I mean, this is a laughable situation. And a mutual friend of ours.

• 1:01:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:01:32Speaker 01

  Who hates the Browns.

• 1:01:33Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:01:34Speaker 01

  Said, has this Deshaun Watson signing handcuffed them more than any other player in any franchise ever, for as long as it has? Now, the, the counter to that is, they always make mistakes anyway, the Browns' ownership. They weren't gonna win anyway.

• 1:01:48Bill Simmons?

  They were just gonna fuck it up with somebody else.

• 1:01:50Speaker 01

  Yeah, but in terms of like morally corrupt.

• 1:01:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:01:53Speaker 01

  Going in and then signing him and then giving him the big money, and then for him to go out there and say, why am I getting booed? How dare they? It was like, who's gonna get booed if you don't get booed? You played 19 games in three years. You've been horrific and they can't move on because of you. And now you're the starter.

• 1:02:10Bill Simmons?

  It's pretty rare, like, you see teams or players, like, they bum out their fanbase, suck the life out of them. You rarely see the fanbase enraged.

• 1:02:19Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:02:20Bill Simmons?

  It's the hardest thing to do. Like, when the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts, like, we were enraged. We really made us mad. This is like a whole other level. I don't even know.

• 1:02:28Speaker 01

  There's no one, right?

• 1:02:29Bill Simmons?

  This is like somebody walking in on their wife or husband just having sex with the doorman.

• 1:02:34Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:02:35Bill Simmons?

  You know, and not even normal sex, like, like a crazy position house.

• 1:02:39Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:02:39Speaker 02

  Oh, Lord.

• 1:02:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:02:41Speaker 01

  I thought House told you not to say anything about this.

• 1:02:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, sorry, House. No, but just like, you walk in on something pretty crazy.

• 1:02:47Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:02:48Bill Simmons?

  What was the movie? The Hangover? When the people are showing up for the, for the orgy?

• 1:02:54Speaker 01

  What was it?

• 1:02:55Bill Simmons?

  Not The Hangover, uh, old school. Luke Wilson comes home with his girlfriend, the people are coming for the orgy. It's like that. The Browns fans are like that level. Like, not only is their life collapsing.

• 1:03:05Speaker 01

  It's been a five-year orgy, four years.

• 1:03:07Bill Simmons?

  Well, some stuff in their favor. Myles Garrett, turns out he is eligible for the Ewing Theory. They won jack shit with them.

• 1:03:13Speaker 01

  Got it.

• 1:03:13Bill Simmons?

  Great player. They had another monster draft. They've had two awesome drafts in a row.

• 1:03:18Speaker 01

  Really good.

• 1:03:18Bill Simmons?

  This one was like, they got a new left tackle, Concepcion in Boston. Everybody loves these guys at receiver. They got McNeil Warren at safety. All those guys were top 60 picks.

• 1:03:30Speaker 01

  The last draft was Fannin, uh, Judkins and, uh, Swenjer, the defensive rookie of the year.

• 1:03:36Bill Simmons?

  And there was one more, and Judkins. Did you say Judkins?

• 1:03:38Speaker 01

  Yeah, the running back, yeah.

• 1:03:40Bill Simmons?

  They have young talent anywhere. And I, again, I thought Stefanski was terrible last year.

• 1:03:45Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:03:45Bill Simmons?

  Like, to the point it seemed like he was throwing games, but he might have just been bad. Um, their offensive line's if-ear and no Jim Schwartz, who, um, sadly, they couldn't keep or figure out how to have.

• 1:03:57Speaker 01

  Yeah, here's why I think your C minus quarterback thing won't hold up. I don't think the defense will be nearly as good. They boast like having 45 straight games without allowing a 300-yard passer. Guess why? Because Myles Garrett is getting double teamed. Jared verse is a nice player, but it's not gonna be the same thing, so.

• 1:04:15Bill Simmons?

  So you're not buying the Ewing Theory?

• 1:04:16Speaker 01

  They're gonna have to score 27 to win a lot of games, I think.

• 1:04:19Bill Simmons?

  One case for them is how awful their schedule is. I mean, how awfully good it is for them. Rogers twice, Bryce, Gino, Cam Ward, Cousins, Stroud, Shuck, Tua, Dart, Jones, are all quarterbacks they play. So if their defense is good, they really, there is a path for them to get to seven and 10, even if they're just handing the ball off every, you know, for four quarters. I, uh, I have them as a slight under at five and 12, and you could even talk me into four and 13. And the reason is, now, it'd be the most Browns thing ever for them to fuck up their chance to finally get a quarterback by having a bad pick, but I just, how are the incentives aligned to do this? Like, we just saw Haslem owns the Bucks. He could've

• 1:05:03Bill Simmons?

  traded Giannis for Jalen and picks, right? And tried to be good. And instead, they tanked and they're gonna rebuild and I, I don't understand.

• 1:05:11Speaker 01

  He's used to being wrong, but they did ask Haslem or he offered it. I think they asked him. They told him it was five and a half. Was this over under? I'm serious. And he said he would go over. So that's just something else he's gonna be wrong about. That's probably what, the only thing we've needed to discuss in terms of picking this.

• 1:05:27Bill Simmons?

  So they have Watson for two games, at Jags, at Bucks.

• 1:05:31Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:05:32Bill Simmons?

  Jason Lloyd, who does a good job at The Athletic, wrote a piece about, they're telling, they're telling you all what they think of Shador Sanders by how they've handled this. Like, they obviously just don't think he's good.

• 1:05:42Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:05:42Bill Simmons?

  And there's no other, unless they trade for, I don't know, Stetson Bennett or, uh, Tyson Bajent.

• 1:05:49Speaker 02

  Jimmy G's a free agent.

• 1:05:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Talk Jimmy, if you're Jimmy G, do you wanna go play for the Browns and get that shit kicked out of you? I'm a slight under. I'm five and 12.

• 1:05:57Speaker 01

  Five and 12 is where I have it too.

• 1:05:59Bill Simmons?

  Can't, I couldn't go over on this.

• 1:06:00Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:06:01Bill Simmons?

  House, your thoughts on this division?

• 1:06:03Speaker 02

  Yeah, so I am drinking Cincinnati Kool-Aid.

• 1:06:06Bill Simmons?

  I knew you would.

• 1:06:07Speaker 02

  You have to believe that the offensive line, that the idea of continuity, even though they were substandard in execution, that the guys returning, that there's a upside to it. That's the only way this makes any sense because you have appropriately criticized that offensive line and it has been the thing that's held them back because they can't keep Joe Burrow upright. When he's upright with all those weapons. Now, I have a view, you and I talked about this before taping today. I think that defense is potentially sneaky good. It took them a while to get used to Al Golden, who came over from Notre Dame.

• 1:06:40Bill Simmons?

  I'm in on this too.

• 1:06:41Speaker 02

  Half of the season, we talked about this. And the splits for them, the latter half of the season, he did some things that uncomplicated assignments, he altered the scheme and they all got on the same page. Now, you pointed out, look at who they played.

• 1:06:55Bill Simmons?

  I was in on this theory till I look who they played. But he won me over for 10 seconds with this theory.

• 1:07:00Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:07:00Bill Simmons?

  Then we went and actually looked who they played.

• 1:07:01Speaker 01

  What about you can only play who's on your schedule? No?

• 1:07:05Bill Simmons?

  I think there were reasons to do that.

• 1:07:06Speaker 02

  And it was a very good defense against those shit teams and those shit quarterbacks. And this schedule that the Bengals have in front of them, that's what really bolsters the case. I love what you're doing with Baltimore and I don't really disagree. I just, to me as a brand new coach, I have Jesse Minter in this Baltimore team in the exact same place as Seattle with Mike McDonald. They won 10 games as soon as Mike McDonald arrived. And then, Super Bowl the second year, I think it's going to take them one year to kind of get their legs. That defense was so bad last year, that Baltimore defense, that's what let them down more than any other thing. Jim Harbaugh, the Harbaugh coach and the defense. So 10 wins for Baltimore is good. It's crazy to me that they arrived at 11 and a half.

• 1:07:48Speaker 02

  They were the top win total in the AFC for most of the summer. It just dropped down as we're, you know, everybody's starting to pay attention to 10 and a half. So I have Cincinnati at like 11 wins, Baltimore at 10. And then I think Pittsburgh's taken a big step back. You have to like really give credence to what Tomlin did in one score games. It's not just last year when 70% of their wins were one score games. It's Tomlin year after year after year. I'm not in on that.

• 1:08:15Bill Simmons?

  I get it.

• 1:08:15Speaker 02

  And then Browns in last.

• 1:08:17Bill Simmons?

  I get it. I wonder how much of it is just the franchise and the identity of the city and just weird shit happening year after year with them.

• 1:08:23Speaker 02

  18 years of Tomlin for that.

• 1:08:25Bill Simmons?

  But we're going to find out now that he's not there if it was Tomlin or if it was something deeper.

• 1:08:30Speaker 01

  The Trey Hendrickson, I know we touched on it, but it's a, it's a key piece to this division, whether or not it makes the Ravens better. There's this, you know, there's the belief that he's 31 years old. He missed what, nine or 10 games last year? Like you're not getting the best version of Trey Hendrickson. And if that's the case, kudos to Cincinnati.

• 1:08:47Bill Simmons?

  I always thought he was a pretty good man he played.

• 1:08:48Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:08:49Bill Simmons?

  Wanted to mention quickly, Fandals NFL Futures Rewards Stack.

• 1:08:54Bill Simmons?

  Where it's basically, it's a five pack house.

• 1:08:58Bill Simmons?

  Unrestricted, two unrestricted, the make or miss playoffs, regular season wins, player milestones. You can do any of those and you get the 50% profit boost token, AKA the PPT, PBT.

• 1:09:12Speaker 02

  PBT.

• 1:09:13Bill Simmons?

  PBT. I always have troubles with P's and B's.

• 1:09:15Speaker 02

  Token.

• 1:09:16Bill Simmons?

  Part of my, part of my speech dyslexia.

• 1:09:19Speaker 01

  No.

• 1:09:19Bill Simmons?

  Fandals has just covered, you have until Monday, August 31st, the last day of August, as it turns out, to hop in on this. I would highly encourage it.

• 1:09:30Speaker 01

  That's tomorrow.

• 1:09:31Bill Simmons?

  We've given you a bunch of picks.

• 1:09:32Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:09:32Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. We've given you a bunch of great picks and what do you have? What's your favorite? Do we have a player one for the AFC or have we not gotten to it yet? Are you, like if you had to do it over?

• 1:09:44Speaker 01

  Yours is AJ Brown, right?

• 1:09:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I would do any AJ Brown. Touchdowns.

• 1:09:50Bill Simmons?

  I'd probably do the touchdowns for AJ Brown.

• 1:09:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:09:52Bill Simmons?

  Because I think there's going to be some fuck you touchdowns in there. Be my guess.

• 1:09:56Speaker 01

  Does Fandals list fuck you touchdowns?

• 1:09:58Bill Simmons?

  I looked, I searched for fuck you and I couldn't find it.

• 1:10:01Speaker 01

  Like a six and a half or something for Henry?

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• 1:11:57Bill Simmons?

  All right, the most boring part of the podcast and every ringer podcast is the AFC South and the Houston Texans. It's rare we're all aligned on a team. Houston Texans, over nine and a half.

• 1:12:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, yes, yeah.

• 1:12:12Bill Simmons?

  Divisions plus 120, sign me up for that. Playoffs minus 176, throw that in any parlay. Number one seed, plus 950. 12 plus wins, plus 220.

• 1:12:24Speaker 01

  You love this.

• 1:12:26Bill Simmons?

  Best record 12 to 1.

• 1:12:30Bill Simmons?

  Long storied case on why I love this, but I'll give you the what if. What if they can semi salvage Stroud this year? C plus Stroud.

• 1:12:38Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:12:38Bill Simmons?

  Just give me a C plus.

• 1:12:39Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, listen, he was fine except for those playoff, and those playoff games is what cost him an extension, right? Like he really should have been, or anybody else would have. But then what did he do? Five interceptions, six sacks, no touchdowns, maybe showing up to training camp with the awkward backpack and like he's about to present his social studies project. That might have hurt too. But other than that, it doesn't really matter. It really doesn't. Like they get so much pressure from Dano Hunter and Will Anderson, who they extended. And that's all they kind of need defensively. They're the scariest team in the league. And that's why as long as they're healthy, they're bulletproof the rest of the way.

• 1:13:17Bill Simmons?

  I felt like I was taking crazy pills the entire offseason. The best defense in the league.

• 1:13:22Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:13:23Bill Simmons?

  It's the best. Nobody would argue it. They didn't lose anybody from the defense and added Blankenship, right? So everybody's back. I thought they were probably the best team last year and Stroud just fucked them in that game. Why did he fuck them?

• 1:13:36Bill Simmons?

  Bad offensive line. They had the worst running backs in the league and they had wide receiver injuries. And, and I just think he lost his confidence as the year went along. Montgomery, not beginning to tell my grandkids that I saw David Montgomery run the ball in the NFL. They had Nick Chubb last year who just retired.

• 1:13:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:13:54Bill Simmons?

  And they had Woody Marks and they, it was just a rotating, you know? And now they, they're competent there. Wide receivers deeper.

• 1:14:03Speaker 01

  They have, they have red zone woes, definitely. And Montgomery should solve a few of those.

• 1:14:07Bill Simmons?

  Really frustrating if you bet on them last year, had them Natis to watch them. Collins, the two rookies from last year, they're back. Higgins is hurt, but Noel's back.

• 1:14:20Bill Simmons?

  And then Tank Dell is in the Higgins spot. And then they traded for Booty, who I really liked.

• 1:14:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:14:25Bill Simmons?

  And then the offensive line is the question.

• 1:14:28Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:14:29Bill Simmons?

  It's not great and it's the one red flag. To me, the offensive line, I'm much more worried about than Stroud. The problem is, I mean, the problem for the rest of the conference and the league, their defense is so fucking good, I'm not really sure it's going to matter that much. Like they're going to have leads, they're going to just absolutely smoke teams. In my rankings, I had them at 27 points. I had seven guys that got points on their defense. Anderson, Hunter, Al Shair, Stingley, Lassiter, Bullock, and Petre. And that's not, Blankenship didn't even get it. Fairbairn is one of the best kickers in the league. Ryan's, I think is like one of the seven best coaches.

• 1:15:04Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:15:06Bill Simmons?

  And I, I think their defense and the coaching and the special teams can carry this.

• 1:15:10Speaker 01

  Seventh easiest strength of schedule, first three out of four home. It's all looking good. I would put it this way.

• 1:15:15Bill Simmons?

  Were you that all of us are all in on this?

• 1:15:17Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:15:18Bill Simmons?

  It's my only thing that scared like, I felt like as everybody was getting behind them, Higgins blew out his ACL like the next day almost.

• 1:15:25Speaker 01

  That wasn't great. But I also feel, there's a lot of Stroud talk.

• 1:15:31Speaker 01

  I think they could be 10 wins plus with Davis Mills. And he shows he could win games, only because you only have to score like 17 points to win some of these games.

• 1:15:39Bill Simmons?

  It's a good point. I like Davis Mills. If I was Cleveland, I would trade my third round pick for him.

• 1:15:44Speaker 01

  And yet they had 404 points last year, which was the second most in franchise history.

• 1:15:48Bill Simmons?

  Here's the thing with Stroud. At least Stroud has done it.

• 1:15:51Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:15:51Bill Simmons?

  At least we know he was good at one point, which was only two, three years ago. And at least we know there were real reasons he wasn't good last year. They couldn't block, they couldn't run the ball.

• 1:16:02Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:16:02Bill Simmons?

  He had nobody to throw the ball to. Lost his confidence. That's fine.

• 1:16:07Bill Simmons?

  Bills, Bengals to start the season, both at home. We're no lot more after week two.

• 1:16:13Speaker 02

  They owned the Bills.

• 1:16:15Bill Simmons?

  I think, uh, I think this defense, I think, I think they thought they were the best team last year. Right? They're going in this year. They're like, we're the best team in the AFC. We're going to go show it. So I have them, uh, it's an over, it's a lock for me, 12 and 5.

• 1:16:30Speaker 01

  12 and 5 is the same. I have them. They have this Georgia Tech guard who I think allowed two sacks in 43 games. They're shoring up that offensive line as much as they can. They got a Michigan tight end. So I don't know. And that, that schedule, what did we say? Four prime time, they play the Jags in London.

• 1:16:48Bill Simmons?

  Four night road games, plus Jags in London. So that's not awesome.

• 1:16:52Speaker 01

  No teams coming off a bye. They face no teams coming off a buys.

• 1:16:56Bill Simmons?

  AFC South goes AFC North and NFC East. So not awesome. They play Allen Burrow, Dak, Herbert, Lamar Love, Daniels and Hertz. And I'm not sure that's going to matter. They end the season with the Titans, which could be dangerous for the 12 plus wins bet. If they have whatever quenched.

• 1:17:14Speaker 01

  They're in our right hedge if you had, if you got that far.

• 1:17:17Bill Simmons?

  All in. I really like the coach too. I think he's good. I, I think they probably should have beaten the Pats last year. Like Stroud just single-handedly screwed the game up, but they, we couldn't do anything against their defense.

• 1:17:28Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:17:28Bill Simmons?

  And then eventually the defense realized like, oh, we're, we're just screwed. Jacksonville, eight and a half. Plus 210 for the division, 27 to one for Super Bowl, minus 106 for the playoffs. Really the most dead even of all the playoffs. 12 plus wins, plus 360. Under seven and a half wins, plus 190.

• 1:17:48Bill Simmons?

  This is yet another turnover regression team. Everybody's been, um, regressing. We need a word for this. It's a regress, regression orgy?

• 1:17:56Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:17:56Bill Simmons?

  Just these regression teams. But what if there's a crazy turnover regression coming for them? And then you pick apart the streak at the end? The eight games, they're averaging 32 a game and you actually go back and look at some of those games. The only really super impressive one was Denver. Right? And there's some other ones, like they played Indy twice during that stretch after, um, Jones had already gotten hurt and.

• 1:18:22Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:18:23Bill Simmons?

  I can't get there with this team.

• 1:18:24Speaker 01

  I, I don't know. This is the one where my reasoning doesn't match up with my pick at all. And I have them at 10 wins. And last year we sat here and I picked them to win the division and because Travis Hunter's going to be great and Brian Thomas Jr. is going to have a great, oh, what a sophomore year.

• 1:18:38Bill Simmons?

  Neither, neither would happen.

• 1:18:38Speaker 01

  And then one didn't play and one barely played and it was terrible. And it was all Jacobi Myers coming in and Lawrence like stepping up like we, no one, no one's business. At the end's gone. Again, I don't know why I'm ignoring the regression here. They had what? Six one score games and top three in takeaways? But I do think, this is just one of my gut feelings. I'm going under because I think Indianapolis takes a tumble. And I think Lawrence has the confidence to get them the double digit wins at this point.

• 1:19:06Bill Simmons?

  Oh, so you're under on the Jags?

• 1:19:07Speaker 01

  No. Well, is it 10 and a half?

• 1:19:09Bill Simmons?

  It's eight and a half.

• 1:19:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm going 10 wins.

• 1:19:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So you're over.

• 1:19:12Speaker 01

  Over. Yeah.

• 1:19:13Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:19:14Bill Simmons?

  I'm under.

• 1:19:15Speaker 02

  Juice to the over.

• 1:19:16Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:19:16Bill Simmons?

  I have them at eight, nine. You could talk me into nine and eight. You cannot talk me into 10. My biggest thing with them, the, you know, this Hunter trade they did, which cost them a lot of draft capital. Like their draft sucked. I think they had the worst draft in the league.

• 1:19:30Speaker 01

  Yeah, it wasn't.

• 1:19:30Bill Simmons?

  And all the people I know who liked the draft also thought it was the worst draft anyone had.

• 1:19:34Speaker 01

  The tight end has like 19 catches, the second round.

• 1:19:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it was just weird.

• 1:19:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, it wasn't that good.

• 1:19:38Bill Simmons?

  Um, they lost ETN. They lost Lloyd.

• 1:19:44Bill Simmons?

  They were playing, I guess, Tooten. Hopefully, keep your fingers crossed. We talked about him on Tuesday's pod. Below average offensive line. It's another thing I don't like. Um, and then the, the Brian Thomas Jr. Where it's like, no, no, he's doing great. It's like, I had him last year. I've never taken that guy again. Uh, a lot of red flags. I, from a roster standpoint, I had them at 15. And that's what giving Parker Washington a two. Um, I only had three guys on defense that I thought were impactful and I don't like the schedule at all. They have nine road games, plus two in London. So they have six home games in Jacksonville. And then 11 games at all other locations.

• 1:20:24Bill Simmons?

  And defenses they go against this year, Cleveland, Denver, New England, Philly, Houston twice, Baltimore, Giants, if they're good and the, and a a shootout with the Bears, but, um, I couldn't get there.

• 1:20:38Speaker 01

  Yeah. Again, I don't have a lot that, they have to get to December. Like that's what, what they have kind of easier than with Dallas, Washington and Indianapolis. Um, I think they have 35 days between home games because they're doing renovations on their stadium, but I have them winning both, uh, London games. So that's what I'm at.

• 1:20:56Bill Simmons?

  So that includes beating the Texans.

• 1:20:58Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:20:58Bill Simmons?

  So I had them getting swept by the Texans, which then puts them eight and seven for everybody else.

• 1:21:05Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:21:05Bill Simmons?

  And I think they're a 500 team. I don't feel great about it. I certainly wouldn't make it a lock or anything. Um, I, I, I just don't understand.

• 1:21:18Bill Simmons?

  The, letting ETN go.

• 1:21:22Bill Simmons?

  And then you get Tooten and Chris Rodriguez, House's guy. Did you watch him last year thinking?

• 1:21:27Speaker 02

  He's fine. He's a third stringer.

• 1:21:28Bill Simmons?

  Like a run of the mill third stringer.

• 1:21:30Speaker 02

  He's a problem for this team.

• 1:21:31Bill Simmons?

  Their run game was so important for them.

• 1:21:33Speaker 02

  They have a doofus GM. James Gladstone. We can call him out by name. He's a goofball. He's on the wrong side. It like, all of the draft analysts, he's picking guys, you know, 30 spots earlier than where consensus has guys. And he's done it for two years. He grossly overpaid for Travis Hunter. He's the single biggest impediment to this team's advancement. Cause Com is good. He's a good head coach.

• 1:21:56Speaker 01

  Did he dead fish you? Is that why you're upset?

• 1:21:58Speaker 02

  I don't know. I haven't had a chance.

• 1:21:59Bill Simmons?

  He deadfished Jay Gladstone.

• 1:22:00Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:22:02Bill Simmons?

  House is like, hey, you know, I'm doing, and he's like, hey, no.

• 1:22:06Bill Simmons?

  Indianapolis Colts over eight and a half.

• 1:22:11Bill Simmons?

  A tale of two seasons last year.

• 1:22:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:22:14Bill Simmons?

  Number one seed, 25 to one, going to rule that out. Under six and a half wins, plus 210. Um, division plus 340. What if Daniel Jones, who blew his Achilles out halfway through last season, is not a hundred percent this season?

• 1:22:29Speaker 01

  No doubt.

• 1:22:31Bill Simmons?

  How can you pick this team for any, for a winning record if it's Daniel Jones, not a hundred percent?

• 1:22:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:22:37Bill Simmons?

  I don't see the case.

• 1:22:38Speaker 01

  This is my lock under. Six and 11. Sorry, Tony Tokens, Tony and all the Token Family, everybody. I'm going under here. I think you're right. I think we'd have to do exactly what he did last year, which means use his legs to extend plays. And, uh, I don't think it's happening. And Pierce just came off the PUP as far as.

• 1:22:58Bill Simmons?

  That part made me nervous too. Big contract for Pierce. Hasn't got the surgery after the contract or whatever the timeline was. And now it doesn't seem like he's a hundred percent.

• 1:23:06Speaker 01

  I don't know why I'm dinging them. They lost Pittman. I'm dinging them for what Jacksonville did too. They had turnovers in 15 games. They forced turnovers. So I don't think that's happening again. I think this is a six and 11 team.

• 1:23:18Bill Simmons?

  Ravens, week one, at Chiefs, week two, Texans, week three.

• 1:23:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's 0 and 3.

• 1:23:24Bill Simmons?

  With Daniel Jones on one leg, basically.

• 1:23:28Speaker 01

  I think you can keep going. I think it gets worse and worse.

• 1:23:30Speaker 02

  It's crazy.

• 1:23:32Bill Simmons?

  I really was thinking about a lock. Should we lock this down together?

• 1:23:36Speaker 01

  The other part of it is Luanne Rumo's, um, the second version of his defense. I like it less and less.

• 1:23:42Bill Simmons?

  The bendo break?

• 1:23:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, the bendo break. I think it breaks.

• 1:23:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. I, I mean, eight, nine and eight. I'm not going to lock it.

• 1:23:51Speaker 01

  Top three tacklers gone. Franklin, Cross, Pratt.

• 1:23:55Bill Simmons?

  I might lock it. I'm going to keep thinking about it.

• 1:23:57Speaker 01

  All right.

• 1:23:57Bill Simmons?

  Their first eight I do not enjoy.

• 1:24:02Bill Simmons?

  Good offensive line, though. I'm not gonna lack it. Like Tyler Warren.

• 1:24:06Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:24:07Bill Simmons?

  Taylor was great last year.

• 1:24:10Bill Simmons?

  They get a full Sauce Gardner season. We'll see if Ward can avoid the concussions. All right, Titans over five and a half.

• 1:24:20Bill Simmons?

  Under four and a half is plus 220. Worst record's plus 750. I'm not giving you the other ones. They did, uh, did bring in big shot Bob Sala.

• 1:24:28Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:24:29Bill Simmons?

  Dayball.

• 1:24:32Bill Simmons?

  What if Cam Ward doesn't have it? What if he just doesn't have it? What if it's, what if he's not good? The advanced stats against him were horrific last year.

• 1:24:41Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:24:42Bill Simmons?

  But they also had the worst coach probably this decade.

• 1:24:45Speaker 01

  He's gotta show a little more than once a month doing that thing where he rolls right and he's almost stepping out of bounds, but then heaves it across the field at the coffin corner.

• 1:24:53Bill Simmons?

  The video gameplay.

• 1:24:54Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's a little bit of like a Hail Mary and did that like twice and everyone's like, oh, maybe there's something there. But yeah, you're right. The EPA, everything, it's way under.

• 1:25:02Bill Simmons?

  Really? Like abysmally bad?

• 1:25:03Speaker 01

  No good.

• 1:25:03Bill Simmons?

  You can't even compare it to, I don't know, Drake May's rookie year. Like if you watched Drake May that year, like, man, this guy, I was really bullish on him after the year. He was running for his life, but he was making plays and seemed like a winning quarterback. And Ward, I want him to be good. We need more good quarterbacks. I just don't know if he's good.

• 1:25:20Speaker 01

  And again, there's a pressure on us to go from a four to a one, the fourth place to a first place. I did put them at eight wins. I do think Wondell Robinson's gonna help and Carnell Tate. Like that'll be as good a wide receiver.

• 1:25:33Bill Simmons?

  Eight wins this year?

• 1:25:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, this, this year, 2026. Eight and nine, I have them. Yeah. It's okay.

• 1:25:41Speaker 01

  What's wrong?

• 1:25:41Bill Simmons?

  Did you hear this, House?

• 1:25:42Speaker 01

  House, he needs help?

• 1:25:43Bill Simmons?

  What? If Tennessee had eight and nine?

• 1:25:45Speaker 01

  Yeah. Gus Bradley, defensive coordinator. You got Sala in there.

• 1:25:48Bill Simmons?

  Gus Bradley, he's terrible.

• 1:25:49Speaker 01

  It's fine. It's gonna be good.

• 1:25:52Speaker 02

  Well.

• 1:25:53Speaker 01

  Eight and nine.

• 1:25:54Speaker 02

  They were at six and a half nearly all summer, um, in terms of the win total. And then here we are and it's down to five and a half.

• 1:26:02Speaker 01

  Locked me in.

• 1:26:03Speaker 02

  But juice to the over.

• 1:26:04Speaker 01

  Franklin Myers, that Denver player is really good. They locked him in. I think the defense will be better.

• 1:26:09Bill Simmons?

  They spent over, almost $300 million on free agent talent.

• 1:26:13Speaker 02

  So it's six wins is minus 135. It's cause of saying, you see, there's a possibility for two more. And the schedule is.

• 1:26:21Speaker 01

  Including that week 18 game that you talked about. Yeah.

• 1:26:23Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:26:25Bill Simmons?

  They drafted Tate and they signed Wondell Robinson, so he's got two weapons.

• 1:26:31Speaker 01

  They have the Jets and Giants too out of the first three weeks.

• 1:26:35Speaker 02

  That's gonna tell the story of the season.

• 1:26:36Speaker 01

  That's Sala and Dayball. That'll, that'll be fun, for sure.

• 1:26:39Bill Simmons?

  I don't mean to be a dick because he seems like a great guy and Schreger likes him. Even if Schreger won't come on my podcast anymore.

• 1:26:45Speaker 01

  What?

• 1:26:46Bill Simmons?

  Nah, he won't.

• 1:26:46Speaker 01

  Dead, more dead fish?

• 1:26:48Bill Simmons?

  It's like Team ESPN now. Yeah.

• 1:26:49Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:26:51Bill Simmons?

  Still friends with them, friendly, friendly, but just won't come on.

• 1:26:54Speaker 01

  Mina, Mina's on ESPN. She comes on.

• 1:26:56Bill Simmons?

  Schreger's turned down multiple invitations.

• 1:26:58Speaker 01

  Really? Wow.

• 1:26:59Speaker 02

  Playing a lot of golf.

• 1:27:00Speaker 01

  No kidding. Don't make excuses, House. You play golf, you're here.

• 1:27:03Speaker 02

  I know.

• 1:27:04Bill Simmons?

  I had for their roster, I had offensive line two.

• 1:27:08Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:27:08Bill Simmons?

  Simmons, three points. Stonehouse, one. And that was really all the guys that got points on this defense. Even Franklin Myers, who I wouldn't have put points for. Here's the thing, though. Big shot Bob Sala, mentioned, friend of Schreger.

• 1:27:24Bill Simmons?

  He was terrible on the Jets. Remember, like, we called him A Kid Sala. We talked about what a fucking train wreck that team was.

• 1:27:31Speaker 01

  They didn't have a lot of help.

• 1:27:32Bill Simmons?

  Their defense was, was always pretty good with him, but.

• 1:27:35Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:27:35Bill Simmons?

  You know, and then Dayball was a maniac in the Giant sideline, so I don't know. I, I can't, I can't get there with this.

• 1:27:42Speaker 01

  We're forced to take a fourth place team and I won't put one in the playoffs like this, but they can go a win and a half over their expectation, right, House? Why not?

• 1:27:50Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's all.

• 1:27:52Bill Simmons?

  They basically have to beat the Jets week one in the, uh, Sala revenge game. Cause after that, if I'm looking for wins at Giants, maybe, at Colts, home Browns,

• 1:28:04Bill Simmons?

  one of the Jags games, home commanders, at Raiders.

• 1:28:09Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:28:11Speaker 02

  Now you're in that six-ish.

• 1:28:12Bill Simmons?

  But you have to win the 80% of those.

• 1:28:14Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:28:15Bill Simmons?

  I'm going five and 12 under. I don't feel great about it. House, the AFC South, talk to us.

• 1:28:20Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, we're so bullish on Houston and, uh, we all bet them. I'm, I'm all the way up at like, you know, 12 wins, the alt, alt win total for Houston. The most important thing for them to me is giving their, uh, offensive coordinator, Kaylee, the opportunity to run Stroud out of under center. And that's gonna translate into, uh, a bunch of opportunities with motion and all kinds of stuff. Like, we didn't see their offense because they thought Joe Mixon was gonna play running back for them until the goddamn season started. They didn't have a plan B. So this is the version of the offense and I think it really helps settle down the offensive line as well. So that's why, that's part of the case for being bullish on, on Houston.

• 1:29:05Speaker 02

  The Jacksonville thing is so fucking weird. They were 13 wins and the market said, congratulations. We think you're an eight and a half win team. 13 last year and now here's your win total.

• 1:29:15Speaker 01

  Pissed about this with the Patriots. You didn't like the disrespect?

• 1:29:21Bill Simmons?

  I have no, I have no counter.

• 1:29:26Speaker 02

  And yet I think it's the right number and it's the right number because of, this GM stinks. They're not replenishing. They're letting guys walk and they're not replenishing.

• 1:29:33Bill Simmons?

  That's the problem. The Patriots actually got better.

• 1:29:35Speaker 01

  Oh, okay.

• 1:29:36Bill Simmons?

  The Jaguars got worse by any way you wanna look at it. They have worse players than they did last year. It's just a fact.

• 1:29:43Speaker 02

  I'm mystified by the Colts. I think Steichen is incredible and what he showed us over the first seven games last year. It was like, what a revelation that no, nobody had the Colts coming out and leading the league in efficiency and scoring and all the rest of it. But I cannot, I will not and cannot, and under any circumstances endorse a guy coming off an Achilles this, in this short period of a time.

• 1:30:06Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:30:06Speaker 02

  And think that, that, oh, that's, their quarterback room with impaired Daniel Jones and Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson, that's as bad as it gets.

• 1:30:14Speaker 01

  Richardson moved down to third, by the way, on the depth chart.

• 1:30:17Bill Simmons?

  So I'm under on the Jaguars, the Titans and the Colts.

• 1:30:22Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:30:22Bill Simmons?

  And over on the Texans. I think this is a one, one horse division.

• 1:30:26Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:30:26Bill Simmons?

  This house was worried I was taking too many 10-plus wins.

• 1:30:30Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:30:30Bill Simmons?

  Kind of running out of them.

• 1:30:31Speaker 01

  You're gonna have a couple here.

• 1:30:32Speaker 02

  You worked it out, but there should be a couple more.

• 1:30:34Bill Simmons?

  This, there's a way this division might actually be in the running against NFC South for at least wins.

• 1:30:39Speaker 01

  Fewest wins, huh?

• 1:30:40Bill Simmons?

  I would favor them. It's a big FanDuel thing.

• 1:30:42Speaker 01

  36.

• 1:30:44Bill Simmons?

  If I gave you AFC South, one and a half wins more than the NFC South, who do you take?

• 1:30:50Speaker 01

  Well, I have seven and 10s all over, so I have to take, I may have 28 for NFC South.

• 1:30:55Bill Simmons?

  So three and a half. What would be the number? Three and a half?

• 1:30:57Speaker 01

  36 for, uh, yeah, that's, that's probably the number.

• 1:31:00Speaker 02

  You can do this. It's available on FanDuel. You can take divisions, uh, and there are odds available right now, division matchups.

• 1:31:07Speaker 01

  But not spreads, but yeah.

• 1:31:08Speaker 02

  Not spreads, that's right. But you can get an implied probability out of it.

• 1:31:13Speaker 03

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• 1:32:13Speaker 05

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• 1:32:38Bill Simmons?

  AFC, AFC West, Denver Broncos. Over nine and a half. They won 11 games last year. Nine and a half this year, division two to one. Playoffs minus 148. 12 plus wins, plus 250.

• 1:32:54Bill Simmons?

  What if this was actually the best AFC team last year? You have two teams that are probably spent the whole offseason going, we should have been in the Super Bowl. I think this one, maybe Buffalo, I don't know if Buffalo fired their coach immediately, but I definitely think Houston and Denver were both like, how the fuck did we not make the Super Bowl?

• 1:33:12Speaker 01

  I still don't know what happened to Bo Nix. Was it the last play of the game that we, in the locker room?

• 1:33:16Bill Simmons?

  It really was nuts.

• 1:33:17Speaker 01

  Did we even say anything?

• 1:33:18Bill Simmons?

  Really was nuts.

• 1:33:21Bill Simmons?

  So what are your thoughts this year? Denver was very kind to us last year.

• 1:33:24Speaker 01

  They were.

• 1:33:25Bill Simmons?

  Futures was one of, one of the big hits last year.

• 1:33:27Speaker 01

  But it was a down year for the division in terms of, you know, Mahomes out there. They had two score, one score wins against the Chiefs.

• 1:33:34Bill Simmons?

  Chargers got decimated.

• 1:33:36Speaker 01

  Yeah, Chargers decimated, the Raiders were the Raiders. This team, I don't know really what to do with them because I think they're very good. I kind of liken them to the Bears, who I know you love, but it's the same sort of one score lock, you know, turnover lock, 11 and 2 in one score games, 1 and 6 in 2024. They trailed in 15 games. They won 14 games and trailed in 15. Now, I don't want to kill Bo Nix for being a, having that clutch gene because that's all that means. He trailed and they brought him back. We watched that Giant game together. That was insane. I would normally sign up for a five game decrease. I mean, I wouldn't sign up, but their first six, laughably difficult. KC, Jacksonville,

• 1:34:21Speaker 01

  Rams, 49ers, Chargers, Seahawks. I won't say which is home, which is away. I think that's 3 and 3 at best.

• 1:34:27Bill Simmons?

  But they're playing the Chiefs on a Monday night in KC.

• 1:34:30Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:34:31Bill Simmons?

  When, first of all, is Mahomes is like, no, I'm feeling good. Like, it's his first game. It's gonna be weird emotion there. I don't know. If I, if I'm playing at Kansas City, that's the game I want to play, week one.

• 1:34:44Speaker 01

  Really?

• 1:34:45Bill Simmons?

  I want to come right at them before Mahomes is settled and he's back to himself. I don't even know who their receivers are.

• 1:34:51Speaker 01

  Yeah. The defense, I think, is a shade below Houston, and that's what's gonna keep them in games. Like Vance Joseph, they have 68 and 63 sacks over the last two years.

• 1:35:01Bill Simmons?

  I have more stuff for you than everything you laid out. I mean, their defense is really good. It's not top three, but it's probably top six. They have the best offensive line in either conference.

• 1:35:09Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:35:09Bill Simmons?

  I got them seven points for the offensive line.

• 1:35:11Speaker 01

  They don't give up sacks.

• 1:35:12Bill Simmons?

  Traded for Waddle. They have two receivers that I gave two points each to, Waddle and Sutton. And Waddle, I think, will really help Bo Nix. And then they have Sean Payton, who's one of the six best coaches in the league. So I, I can block, I can defend, and I have a really good coaching staff. I'm not as scared about the schedule. Week 10 through 15 are pretty easy. Bi-week Raiders, at Steelers, Dolphins, at Jets, at Raiders. And then they get the Chargers the last week. I'm, I'm...

• 1:35:42Speaker 01

  You're going over. I mean, that's...

• 1:35:43Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I'm not only going over. I'm 11 and 6 and an over lock. This is one of my locks. I'm in on Denver.

• 1:35:50Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:35:50Bill Simmons?

  I don't understand why, there's just too much of a foundation here. Like, we talk about like Cincinnati, like, one injury, the thing can fall apart. This team has like, things can happen and they'll still be okay.

• 1:36:03Speaker 01

  And things happened last year and they were okay, but they really happened. I mean, the one score...

• 1:36:08Bill Simmons?

  It's a little bit of a window team, too. They're in a little bit of a similar spot with the Pats, whereas Nix on a rookie deal.

• 1:36:13Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:36:14Bill Simmons?

  Where you were able to spend this money all these different ways. I really like RJ Harvey. I, I thought he had real moments last year. I want to see more from him this year.

• 1:36:23Speaker 01

  Waddle's a good pickup. He throws short, anything like at the line of scrimmage and stuff, he's gonna make a big play out of.

• 1:36:29Bill Simmons?

  Our fantasy guys were really bullish on Waddle. Like, they were just like, this guy, talk about bad quarterbacks. You know, he's put up big stats last year, just absolute crap. So, I'm in. I, I, this is my favorite team in the division, and I like the division 2 to 1 odds. I already bet that. I have the over. Like, I'm in on this team.

• 1:36:49Speaker 01

  All right. I have 9 and 8. I think that's a tough, tough early stretch. 3 and 3 out of those 6.

• 1:36:54Bill Simmons?

  Okay. Uh, next team is the Kansas City Chiefs. Over is 9 and 1/2, division plus 175. They have better division odds than the Denver Broncos. Go fucking figure that one. Minus 174 for the playoffs, plus 146 not to make the playoffs. Under 8 and 1/2 wins is plus 190, 13 plus is plus 440. They were 6 and 11 last year. They basically flipped their secondary. They lost McDuffie. They drafted Dullane as, as, what was he, like the sixth pick in the draft?

• 1:37:26Speaker 01

  From LSU.

• 1:37:27Bill Simmons?

  Rookie cornerback.

• 1:37:28Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:37:28Bill Simmons?

  Moved up to get him. They drafted him and a defensive tackle and an edge on the top 40.

• 1:37:34Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:37:34Bill Simmons?

  People like Cyrus Allen as a wide receiver sleeper. Mahomes is allegedly healthy.

• 1:37:42Bill Simmons?

  So, when this happened to Brady, after the ACL, the 08 season, they still went 10 and 6 without him. Then he came back the next year and there's like this little dark run here of 09 and 2010 before they rebooted and ran off the next thing. They were still good. They were like 10 and 6 one year, 13 and 3 the other year. They had the number one offense. I just don't see the talent with Kansas City. Like, I don't feel like there's a foundation. And it's weird to hear people talk about Andy Reid, like, wow, and they have Mahomes and Reid. And it's like, Reid was terrible last year. Their coaching staff was terrible. All the stories that came out from Kansas City was that the team

• 1:38:27Bill Simmons?

  was unfocused, that guys were lazy coming out of meetings and like that. It was kind of like, you know, the classic, the players were running the team and...

• 1:38:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:38:38Bill Simmons?

  I don't see it. Like, they signed Kenneth Walker, okay. Rashid Rice might not be in jail for most of the year, fine. Were these healthy? Are we sure he's good? It's a lot of like glass half full with them because they're the Chiefs. I would argue this is like the rebuilding year to lead to next year. Like, Kelsey, I, I just feel like, I don't, I didn't even give him points. I think it's over for him as an impact guy. And then Chris Jones is, what, 32, 33? Just feels like they're gonna move into this different era, and I think they know it from the way they treated, trading guys and the draft and trying to get picks. I think this is a transition year for them. I'm under. I'm under at 8, 9.

• 1:39:18Speaker 01

  I feel like I shouldn't say anything. I don't want to get in your way here. But, no, and I, maybe I just have this old man approach to romanticizing the Chiefs and saying...

• 1:39:27Bill Simmons?

  I don't blame you.

• 1:39:28Speaker 01

  Oh my God, you could get him at, to win 10 games and you'll get, that's the over? You're good with that? And I think when we give our top three or four quarterbacks, it's always still gonna be Mahomes in there.

• 1:39:40Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:39:40Speaker 01

  And so I'm gonna take the over until he gives me a reason not to. Everything you said is true.

• 1:39:44Bill Simmons?

  Over here is 10 and 7.

• 1:39:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:39:46Bill Simmons?

  For him.

• 1:39:46Speaker 01

  10 and 7. And you said, what you said is true. Like, he thrives when Travis Kelsey's good and fast and not lumbering. And anyone who has Travis Kelsey on your fantasy team or is waiting for the Taylor Swift cutaway knows he doesn't get that 14-yard pass until like the late in the third quarter.

• 1:40:03Bill Simmons?

  Like, is he a dollar in our league this year?

• 1:40:05Speaker 01

  Yeah. I think like, my wife took him in her draft yesterday. I'm like, ugh, what is that? Then she yelled at me. She's like, oh, we have to root for him. I'm like, yeah, I don't know. Take Goddard there. You screwed up. But they, the NFL has a way of doing Mahomes a favor, and they did it this year in the Rehab Bowl against Bo Nix. It's the very last game of week one, so they gave him enough time. They gave him an easy early schedule. First of all, he has a bye in week five.

• 1:40:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:40:30Speaker 01

  And then what is the, what are the first three? I forget. Now I forget.

• 1:40:32Bill Simmons?

  It's Broncos, Colts, Dolphins, Raiders, bye.

• 1:40:35Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:40:35Bill Simmons?

  Just trying to buy him as much time as he needs.

• 1:40:38Speaker 01

  So maybe they're 3 and 1 or 4 and 0. I'm not, I'm just not ready to close the, the book on him. I, I see getting B. Enemy back as a positive. I know people laugh at that because we're talking about the old guard and everything. And I think the Kenneth Walker signing is like solid. We talk about like, these, it's over bloated if you take a Super Bowl MVP. Cowboys had one, Larry Brown, right? When he was in the right place, the right time against Neil O'Donnell.

• 1:41:02Bill Simmons?

  Larry Brown was where my brain was going.

• 1:41:04Speaker 01

  I think this is like, with the, you know, lacking the tight end outlet pass, I think Kenneth Walker on a screen is gonna be the outlet, and it's gonna help Mahomes. And I think it's gonna make the offense good enough. It's the defense who did okay through the draft.

• 1:41:22Bill Simmons?

  The secondary is really young.

• 1:41:24Speaker 01

  That's the thing. They're gonna have to turn that on.

• 1:41:26Bill Simmons?

  Week 12 through 17, at Bills, at Rams, both on Thursdays, at Bengals, home Patriots on a Monday night, 49ers, at Chargers. All in a row.

• 1:41:36Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:41:37Bill Simmons?

  I can't get there with it. And, and it's, it reminded me of the early 2020s Pats when we were giving Belichick all that respect and rope because he was Belichick.

• 1:41:48Speaker 01

  Maybe.

• 1:41:49Bill Simmons?

  And it's like, I, at some point, this is, you get older.

• 1:41:52Speaker 01

  You don't like any of the older coaches. You answered your own question with the old guard.

• 1:41:55Bill Simmons?

  Reid was out to lunch last year, and I think he's the most media-protected QB in either conference, especially with all the shit that happens to that team off, off the field that...

• 1:42:03Speaker 01

  Well, Shanahan's the most media...

• 1:42:05Bill Simmons?

  Well, Shanahan for...

• 1:42:07Speaker 01

  Criminal law, law enforcement and media.

• 1:42:09Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. But the Reid is like, everybody's looking the other way. Is this, it's, he's gonna be 70 soon. Like, this is, I don't know.

• 1:42:16Speaker 01

  Now, they were 6 and 11. They had a plus 34 point differential. That, I think, is important. And they're never...

• 1:42:22Bill Simmons?

  And they lost some stupid games. The Jaguars game was the dumbest loss probably of the year.

• 1:42:25Speaker 01

  They went from 9 one-score wins to 1.

• 1:42:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:42:28Speaker 01

  Like, they're never in the middle. It's, it's either like 10, 10, 1.

• 1:42:31Speaker 02

  That's the concerning thing to your point. You're gonna ride with Mahomes until he, he proves that you shouldn't do that. Well, he did have five fifth quarter touchdown, uh, fourth quarter interceptions last year.

• 1:42:41Speaker 01

  He was 6 and 8.

• 1:42:42Bill Simmons?

  He did. And by the way, he got hurt at the, closer to the end of the season when it was already done.

• 1:42:46Speaker 01

  He was 6 and 8. Like, he should get a little more crap.

• 1:42:48Bill Simmons?

  House feels more strongly than I do.

• 1:42:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm, I'm way out on this Kansas City team. I, I don't, I mean, this, this is, you have to do what you're doing, which is say, Priors. And, and that's the case for this Kansas City team. Priors aren't playing in the secondary for this team. Priors aren't, this, this pass rush for the, for the Chiefs has been worse year over year, and they haven't done anything to improve the pass rush. So you have one of the youngest secondaries in the NFL with a pass rush. Their defense was the reason that they lost games last year. The offense was, Mahomes had a pretty good year efficiency-wise, and he ran...

• 1:43:21Bill Simmons?

  Considering his offensive line was awful.

• 1:43:23Speaker 02

  And, and it's, and it's not much better this year coming in.

• 1:43:25Bill Simmons?

  Below average this year.

• 1:43:26Speaker 01

  Yeah. It's not Spags on defense pulling off, you know, miracles anymore.

• 1:43:30Speaker 02

  It's not. It's not.

• 1:43:31Speaker 01

  I get it, but it's not always been like that.

• 1:43:33Bill Simmons?

  Mahomes with, coming back with an ACL, and like, anytime they're in a big game fourth quarter, he takes off, he runs, he uses his legs. Is he gonna do that again?

• 1:43:40Speaker 01

  No, if he doesn't, it's, it's done.

• 1:43:42Bill Simmons?

  Is he gonna be more stationary? Like, Brady, I didn't feel, even though the stats were relatively the same, felt like it took him two years to get, get the guys falling around your knees.

• 1:43:51Speaker 01

  I just don't think they go 1 and 5 in the, in the division again. So give them, if, if they go 3 and 3, now they're back up to 8, I think they can get to 10.

• 1:44:01Bill Simmons?

  I think this is all reputation.

• 1:44:04Speaker 01

  So what do we do? Would we just argue until one of us convinces the other?

• 1:44:06Bill Simmons?

  No, we're gonna move to the next team.

• 1:44:10Bill Simmons?

  They play a lot of good QBs, too. Drake May, Burrow, Herbert twice, Allen, Stafford, Nick twice, Darnold, Purdy.

• 1:44:16Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:44:17Bill Simmons?

  Chargers nine and a half. I went back and forth on this one the most of all 32 teams.

• 1:44:24Speaker 01

  You did.

• 1:44:24Bill Simmons?

  Division plus 195. I think that's a good bet. I think Chargers and Broncos are good bets. Like, you could argue, bet both of those and just try to hit one and hope nobody else beats you. Playoffs minus 158. Number one seed plus 800. Under seven and a half is plus 310. Best record, 14 and 1. They were 11 and 6 last year. Year three of Harbaugh, he wins 11 games every year?

• 1:44:48Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:44:49Bill Simmons?

  I think he's in the 10-win club, which is ultimately why I put him at 10 wins. Mikey, Mikey Mack is new DJ. Coming in.

• 1:44:57Speaker 01

  It's a new DJ.

• 1:44:58Bill Simmons?

  He's bringing in, he's gonna use some salsa and some disco.

• 1:45:01Speaker 01

  He's gonna play some Omarion.

• 1:45:02Bill Simmons?

  People like the rookie pass rusher.

• 1:45:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:45:05Bill Simmons?

  The bad side, they lost Jesse Minter. They already lost their center. Their guards suck, too. And schedule rest is all time. Warren Sharp, like, had a stroke about their schedule rest. It was minus 24. It was like the highest, the worst they've ever measured for schedule rest.

• 1:45:23Speaker 01

  Yeah. I saw a lot of travel, but this team doesn't have home games. So I think they're like, yeah, get us to the road. I don't think it matters as much.

• 1:45:30Bill Simmons?

  17 road games. So them and Deshaun Watson, just playing on the road all year. I, uh, I landed at 10. And that's a slight over. I just couldn't pick Harbaugh for nine wins.

• 1:45:43Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 1:45:43Bill Simmons?

  I really worried about the middle of their line, though. Like, you lose the center and their guards are both terrible and their tackles are elite. But everything in the middle is awful and our team's just gonna push through the middle at them.

• 1:45:57Bill Simmons?

  Where do you have?

• 1:45:58Speaker 01

  I have them at 11. And I know they're starting with this bullshit with the B. Adaz being out in the offensive line. And they're like, they had the 27th best injury luck in the league. But Slater and Alt being back, it's all the difference when those guys are.

• 1:46:11Bill Simmons?

  They won 11 games without those guys. It's fucking crazy.

• 1:46:13Speaker 01

  Exactly. It really is nuts. And I have to think, Mike McDaniel, I really, this could be the biggest overreaction in terms of a assistant coming over, a coordinator coming over, but.

• 1:46:24Bill Simmons?

  Well, that's how bad their offense was before.

• 1:46:26Speaker 01

  Yeah, right. I like it. I like them winning 11 and I have them winning.

• 1:46:29Bill Simmons?

  I really wanted to do 11. I talked myself out of it because of the schedule rest and

• 1:46:34Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:46:34Bill Simmons?

  the center really threw my, that threw me off. They're starting a rookie at center.

• 1:46:39Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's not great.

• 1:46:40Bill Simmons?

  Cole Strange is one of their starting guards who is so bad, the Pats were, the Pats who didn't even have a good offensive line last year is like, we gotta get this guy out of here because we might be dumb enough to play him. Just wave them.

• 1:46:53Bill Simmons?

  Losing Minter worries me as well.

• 1:46:57Bill Simmons?

  And they have a schedule. So they go Cardinals, Raiders, first two weeks.

• 1:47:00Speaker 01

  2-0. There you go.

• 1:47:02Bill Simmons?

  And then they have the next seven are just all time. At Bills, at Seahawks, Broncos, at Chiefs, bye week, at Rams, Texans, at Ravens. It's a fucking gauntlet. And then you gotta keep your quarterback.

• 1:47:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:47:14Bill Simmons?

  You know, upright. That Texans game, you think the Texans are gonna be going up the middle and the Chargers?

• 1:47:19Speaker 01

  54 sacks last year, third most for any quarterback. So I just think if they could just protect, I mean, that's the case for everything. Hampton only played in nine games. That could help them out a little bit, you know, if they get a little bit of run game.

• 1:47:32Bill Simmons?

  I do think Herbert and May suffered from a little bit of the same problem as we got to January last year. It was like the accumulation of just getting fucking popped.

• 1:47:41Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:47:42Bill Simmons?

  You know, and the fact that the, the Chargers offensive line was worse than the Pats. But at some point, when you're just going back, just assuming, I only have 2.3 seconds to throw. I'm about to take a giant hit. At some point, as the stakes get higher and more stuff's going on and the teams get better, um, and you're not healthy.

• 1:48:00Speaker 01

  They were in the red zone a lot and couldn't score. And that's supposed to be where Mike McDaniel is gonna turn it around.

• 1:48:06Bill Simmons?

  I don't like Hampton as much as some others, but I do think having him the whole year will probably help.

• 1:48:10Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 1:48:11Bill Simmons?

  Receivers I don't love, they're fine.

• 1:48:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:48:14Bill Simmons?

  Herbert's a very sexy MVP pick.

• 1:48:17Speaker 01

  It's Lad McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Trey Harris. And already a couple of those guys are questionable.

• 1:48:24Bill Simmons?

  Uh, all right. So we're both over for them. And then the last team is the, um, Las Vegas Raiders. Over, under five and a half wins?

• 1:48:33Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:48:35Bill Simmons?

  Five to one to make the playoffs.

• 1:48:38Bill Simmons?

  15-1 for the division. They were 3-14 last year. Eight to one if you want to go for them for worst record. They improved their offensive line, improved their run game, and they have Mendoza lurking. Plus, they have Quinn Kubiak.

• 1:48:50Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:48:50Bill Simmons?

  Why wouldn't we go over on this?

• 1:48:52Speaker 01

  Oh, I was gonna say, this is my most embarrassing pick of all, picking them over. And I won't do what I've done in prior years, take them to win, get a wild card or anything like that. But I do think they're gonna go seven and 10, I have, for this team. And, and it doesn't have a lot to do with Mendoza, my dumb reasoning. Like, Kubiak, it was a few years ago, but Kubiak and Cousins, that was his most productive year. He had 31 touchdown passes that year. Now, I can only say this with so much confidence for a team that boasts a wide receiver room of Trey Tucker, Jack Beck, and Malik Benson, which I think only next to the Dolphins is, uh, that might be worse than the Dolphins.

• 1:49:33Speaker 01

  But, um, little Max Crosby karma in there. They spent $308 million in free agency. That's the second most. You know, they got Tyler Lindenbaum, they got some Colton Miller, they have some good linemen in there.

• 1:49:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:49:46Speaker 01

  I think they're gonna be competitive.

• 1:49:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:49:52Speaker 01

  You went over two.

• 1:49:53Bill Simmons?

  I went under.

• 1:49:53Speaker 01

  Oh, you did? After all that?

• 1:49:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And I had just had them at five and 12. I couldn't get there.

• 1:50:00Speaker 01

  It's safe, you know?

• 1:50:02Bill Simmons?

  Kubiak, sure. He's gonna be way better than, uh, the ghost of Pete Carroll.

• 1:50:06Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:50:07Bill Simmons?

  The, the franchise just seems like a mess. I don't know what's going on with them. Like, the Pete Carroll hiring was weird. They spent money, but then they also brought in the worst receivers of all time to play with Mendoza.

• 1:50:20Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:50:21Bill Simmons?

  And then they brought in Cousins as a Mendoza stopgap.

• 1:50:26Bill Simmons?

  But Mendoza is clearly gonna play by week four and have nobody to throw to. And Gentey, the sixth pick last year, was, was bizarre. I just think the roster's too weird for me.

• 1:50:37Speaker 01

  Can I give you my Tom Brady take here? Like, I, I feel like people have to be reminded that he's part owner of this team.

• 1:50:45Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:50:45Speaker 01

  It's so low on the list. And I think it's purposely, it's by design that no one remembers because he's involved in all this other crazy shit.

• 1:50:55Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:50:55Speaker 01

  You know, he's doing roasts, he's doing Subway commercials when he hasn't had a, a, a piece of bread in 16 years. He's, uh, you know, he's calling, he's going after whatever the fuck Paul brother. Everything's, tight leather pant photo shoots. It's all to distract the fact that he owns the Raiders and that's what he's staying away from. So I guess I'm saying, good job by him. He's like the GOAT of distractions, too. I can't believe you pulled it off.

• 1:51:22Bill Simmons?

  Best offense I've heard of Brady's behavior yet.

• 1:51:23Speaker 01

  Yeah. Throw it all out there. And the broadcasting, which is his thing.

• 1:51:28Speaker 02

  Well, that was the controversy of the first part of the season, right? The broadcasting and him being the owner and, you know, was he in on Pete Carroll? And pretty quickly became apparent he was out on him. That was a big storyline.

• 1:51:40Speaker 01

  Does he ever step up and make this offense somehow respectable? Like, him himself? Does he ever get that involved somehow?

• 1:51:48Bill Simmons?

  Doesn't seem like he cares that much.

• 1:51:50Speaker 01

  It's crazy.

• 1:51:51Speaker 02

  How old is he now?

• 1:51:54Speaker 02

  45?

• 1:51:54Speaker 01

  You think he can play?

• 1:51:55Bill Simmons?

  Late 40s.

• 1:51:55Speaker 01

  You jump in there?

• 1:51:57Bill Simmons?

  Let me ask you a question about the over-under. Because they play the AFC East and the NFC West and the, uh, in this division.

• 1:52:05Bill Simmons?

  So what's their record in the division? One and five?

• 1:52:10Speaker 01

  I think I gave him two wins.

• 1:52:11Speaker 02

  This is the math that makes the most sense for what you're advocating for. I've, I've done this.

• 1:52:15Bill Simmons?

  One and five or 0 and 6?

• 1:52:16Speaker 02

  I totally agree with this. I know where you're going.

• 1:52:18Speaker 01

  I gave him two wins. They always have one-score games against Denver and I think they pull.

• 1:52:22Bill Simmons?

  One and five or 0 and 6?

• 1:52:23Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:52:24Bill Simmons?

  Let's go one and five.

• 1:52:26Speaker 01

  All right. You won't let me go two and four, but that's fine.

• 1:52:28Bill Simmons?

  Bills, Patriots, Rams, Seahawks. Let's go 0 and 4 for those. Now I'm at 1 and 9.

• 1:52:34Speaker 01

  Almost beat the Patriots.

• 1:52:35Speaker 02

  So now. Now do the Niners.

• 1:52:38Bill Simmons?

  And the Niners are sitting there as well. I just, if you go them 1 and 9 for those 10 games.

• 1:52:43Speaker 01

  All right.

• 1:52:43Bill Simmons?

  I need to go five and two in the other seven games. And that's why I went under.

• 1:52:51Speaker 01

  Jets, Arizona, Miami.

• 1:52:54Bill Simmons?

  And by the way, every, every bad, other bad team you're playing, they're like, holy shit, we might win this week. We're playing the Raiders.

• 1:53:00Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:53:00Bill Simmons?

  I couldn't get there.

• 1:53:01Speaker 01

  I know. I wasn't proud of, I didn't finish strong there, but I did have them at seven.

• 1:53:05Bill Simmons?

  Listen, I didn't make it a lock. I'm just, I didn't really love it either way. How's your NFC, your AFC West thoughts?

• 1:53:11Speaker 02

  Yeah, I like, um, Denver to win this division. Uh, and mainly it's because the odds are sitting there at two to one in the way. I think that Denver and the Chargers are like neck and neck. And my, uh, the reason I went in the direction of Denver is because, um, I match up the units. I think that Denver's defense is the best unit of those two teams doing offense, defense, special teams. I like the Denver defense the best out of all of them. That the, um, the schedules are comparable, obviously, because they're in, in division. And the Chargers with the uncertainty that's coming into that offensive line, it's, it's, it's annoying. I'd really like to see this Chargers offense one time. So it's Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs. I'm so far out on the Chiefs. I'm doing alt unders on the Chiefs.

• 1:53:56Speaker 02

  And then Raiders under five and a half because the math you just laid out. That's why I'm playing this.

• 1:54:01Bill Simmons?

  This is one of my favorite exacts. Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders. I think that's how it goes. AFC locks, so you had which locks?

• 1:54:09Speaker 01

  Uh, what did I have? I have, uh.

• 1:54:11Bill Simmons?

  Because I had Houston over nine and a half.

• 1:54:14Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:54:14Bill Simmons?

  And I had Denver over nine and a half as my only two locks in the AFC. So I did seven total.

• 1:54:20Speaker 01

  Right. I'm going Chargers over, I'm going Jets over, and, uh, that's it.

• 1:54:28Bill Simmons?

  All right. So you only had four locks total?

• 1:54:30Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's it. Yeah.

• 1:54:31Bill Simmons?

  I had for the NFC, Dallas over, Washington under, Tampa over, Atlanta under, Seattle over.

• 1:54:36Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:54:37Bill Simmons?

  And then you had.

• 1:54:38Speaker 01

  I can't remember what that was.

• 1:54:39Bill Simmons?

  Green Bay?

• 1:54:40Speaker 01

  I had Green Bay over and did I have?

• 1:54:43Bill Simmons?

  Were you at some unders?

• 1:54:45Speaker 01

  Well, a bunch of those NFC teams.

• 1:54:46Bill Simmons?

  It was so many, it was so many hours ago.

• 1:54:48Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's fine.

• 1:54:50Bill Simmons?

  We're coming back.

• 1:54:52Speaker 01

  Probably a week from when this airs.

• 1:54:54Bill Simmons?

  Week from when this airs. We're going to do guest lines, but we're also going to do our NFL futures draft. And that's going to be this Sunday heading into NFL season. And you guys on the Ringer Wise Guys, you're going to finish the last two divisions.

• 1:55:06Speaker 02

  Yeah, we have two.

• 1:55:08Speaker 01

  NFC South and West, Monday and Friday.

• 1:55:10Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:55:12Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:55:13Bill Simmons?

  Rahimo changes picks right up to when you guys start the show, the rundown.

• 1:55:19Bill Simmons?

  There we go. We did it, Sal.

• 1:55:20Speaker 02

  Yeah, baby.

• 1:55:21Bill Simmons?

  Four hours, 32 teams. We had a whole bunch of stuff. Thanks, House.

• 1:55:26Speaker 02

  My pleasure. Thanks for letting me sit in the Craig chair.

• 1:55:28Bill Simmons?

  Thanks, Sal.

• 1:55:28Speaker 02

  Great time.

• 1:55:29Bill Simmons?

  Thanks, Gahow. Thanks, Eduardo. Thanks to everybody at The Ringer. And don't forget to come back on the BS Pod and on Ringer Wise Guys, and then me and Sal a week from now.

• 1:55:39Speaker 01

  Good job by you, buddy.

• 1:55:41Bill Simmons?

  All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Sal and House. Thanks to Eduardo and Gahow, as always. Don't forget, new rewatchables coming tomorrow afternoon, ET time. Can't wait for that, because we did a really good movie, like a really, really good one.

• 1:56:01Bill Simmons?

  I'll see you on this feed

• 1:56:04Bill Simmons?

  probably Tuesday. Might just be Thursday this week, but I think it's going to be Tuesday, Thursday this week. So I'll see you at some point this week.

• 1:56:32Bill Simmons?

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