The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal and Joe House LIVE on Netflix for Part 1 of their annual NFL over/unders pod. First up: the NFC! (0:00) Intro (1:30) NFC East (37:08) NFC North (01:06:31) NFC South (01:33:57) NFC West Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Cousin Sal and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat, Eduardo Ocampo, and Jonathan Frias NBA 2K27 | Ball Over Everything The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by PayPal. The holiday rush is coming and you can get ahead of it with PayPal. Shop your favorite online stores with PayPal this season like eBay for collectibles, Fanatics for teen gear, Walmart for tech. Check out the flexibility to pay now or pay later and split your payments with Pay in four with no interest, no late fees. Shop now with PayPal. Paying for subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com slash paying for PayPal, Inc., NMLS 910457.

• 0:39Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by NBA 2K27. We just had one of the craziest off seasons we've had in the NBA, which is perfect for 2K because every 2K season can be one of the craziest off seasons. The whole league shifted in real life. It could shift to an NBA 2K27. The best place to compete with these new look rosters and also try to figure out who's on what roster. You can see how new teams and new dynamic duos match up. You can play Philly, feel what it's like to have all their new guys with the old guys. And you can also take a struggling franchise to the NBA finals if you want, because it'll never happen in real life for a couple of the struggling franchises. You know who I'm talking about.

• 1:23Bill Simmons?

  Anyway, NBA 2K lets you experience every transaction and storyline right from your home. Pick up your copy of NBA 2K27 right now.

• 2:03Bill Simmons?

  Let's go.

• 2:07Bill Simmons?

  Let's go.

• 2:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, baby.

• 2:08Bill Simmons?

  Year 20 for us, cuz.

• 2:10Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 2:11Bill Simmons?

  We have been doing podcasts together about the NFL since the 2007 season. I did the math. That's 20 years this year.

• 2:20Speaker 01

  Hold on a second.

• 2:21Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if we did over unders in 07, but this is our 20th season together. We brought some special guests. Farrah Fawcett is here, one of the people we had our first crushes on.

• 2:29Speaker 01

  I think she likes me. She's all.

• 2:31Bill Simmons?

  Don Johnson's gonna have a couple cigarettes and then Joe House in the Craig's.

• 2:35Speaker 02

  Wow, amazing.

• 2:36Speaker 01

  He looks so much more alive than Don and Farrah. How did you get that poster?

• 2:41Speaker 02

  I wore my goat hat because I'm humbling on to be here with the goats.

• 2:46Speaker 01

  Is Don Johnson gonna be upset when we take the Dolphins under two and a half wins?

• 2:49Bill Simmons?

  I think he's gonna be upset. Joe House is going to chime in after every division and then also be a tiebreaker for us every once in a while.

• 2:57Speaker 01

  All right.

• 2:58Bill Simmons?

  We don't want to mess with the format too much, but.

• 3:01Speaker 01

  It's fine.

• 3:01Bill Simmons?

  But House is here. We're doing a big Ringer Fantasy Football Draft tomorrow. Fantasy's already quit the draft five times, but we're doing that live on Netflix tomorrow. And this is a two-part podcast. This is the NFC, win total over unders and then that's gonna be live on Netflix and then AFC will be running on Sunday. We're doing it all at once today and.

• 3:21Speaker 01

  This is one of my favorite days of the year.

• 3:22Bill Simmons?

  We have some redemption stuff, Sal. I don't, neither of us did that well last year.

• 3:26Speaker 01

  No, I know. It was off year for us. A lot of red, a lot of red markings there.

• 3:29Bill Simmons?

  What happened? Cause the higher end stuff, I feel like I did well and it was like the middle class, the lower ones killed me.

• 3:35Speaker 01

  This is the best day of the year because I'm, we're gonna go 32-0 after today and then the week one, when Cincinnati like actually loses the whole first month. I'm like, oh, what the hell happened?

• 3:45Bill Simmons?

  But well, so big picture, everyone has too much information now.

• 3:49Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 3:49Bill Simmons?

  This is the hardest run you guys have been doing on Ringer Gambling Show, division by division. You've done a great job of not tipping your hand.

• 3:55Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 3:55Bill Simmons?

  You and I, the whole summer, really the first year, we really tried to not tell each other what we're thinking.

• 4:02Speaker 01

  It's like the bride and groom aren't supposed to see each other the day of the wedding, but ours is for like 60 days.

• 4:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. House knows some of my stuff. We went over some stuff today as we, as we digested Bianco's pizza from last night. We had a lot of pizza. You don't, you haven't been, you've been healthier.

• 4:19Speaker 01

  Cutting down on, I presented my plate to you. I'm like, look, look what I've turned into. I've turned into Bill Simmons.

• 4:25Bill Simmons?

  Right, with no crust.

• 4:26Speaker 01

  Was left, but.

• 4:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Meanwhile, I was eating pizza. I'm wearing a seatbelt now. I don't know what's happened to me.

• 4:32Speaker 01

  I don't know if I believe that or not. I think that's just to get everyone off your case.

• 4:35Bill Simmons?

  No, I've been wearing it.

• 4:36Speaker 01

  You have?

• 4:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 4:37Speaker 01

  And how's that going?

• 4:39Bill Simmons?

  It's confining.

• 4:42Speaker 01

  That is true. That is the one thing they say about that.

• 4:44Bill Simmons?

  It's confining.

• 4:45Speaker 01

  What about on a plane? Do you wear one on a plane?

• 4:47Bill Simmons?

  I, only if they yell at me.

• 4:49Speaker 01

  Okay. So you need to be.

• 4:50Bill Simmons?

  I just feel like on a plane, it's nothing good's happening either way.

• 4:53Speaker 01

  I agree.

• 4:53Bill Simmons?

  It's not like, oh, that guy who wore a seatbelt got saved during the crash.

• 4:57Speaker 01

  Right. What about in a submarine? Oh, forget it.

• 4:59Bill Simmons?

  Let's not talk about crashes before we're about to do NFC over unders. So every year, the cousin I, we pick the over under totals, which we're getting from Fanduel, Fanduel Sportsbook. They're getting better and better at the juice, at the totals. We're not gonna deal, we'll mention if the juice is, but we can't do anything about the juice.

• 5:17Speaker 01

  No.

• 5:17Bill Simmons?

  There's some minus 135s, there's some minus 130s. We're talking about some alt lines.

• 5:22Speaker 01

  They've given us too many options. Years ago, in 2007, imagine if we had alt lines, like, oh my God, we lose our minds. But now it's like, oh, this is the Cheesecake Factory menu. What are we gonna do?

• 5:32Bill Simmons?

  Well, you get to the point, you look at it, you, you form the opinions on the over unders. And I would say about third week of August, the alt lines start becoming really appealing. And I thought, even on the Ringer Gambling Show, we're gonna do the NFC East first. I think it was the Bundo who was saying how this has a chance to be the one seed in this division because of the two weaker teams. And talking one seed, that, that stuff we couldn't have bet, I don't feel like 10 years ago.

• 5:59Speaker 01

  One seed for your best record.

• 6:00Bill Simmons?

  Best record in the league.

• 6:02Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 6:02Bill Simmons?

  All that stuff.

• 6:03Speaker 01

  We've come a long way.

• 6:03Bill Simmons?

  I'm already losing my voice. We're only three minutes in.

• 6:05Speaker 01

  I'm so excited. We sent the kid, like, the kid's like, oh, summer's over. My wife's like, yeah, they have to go to school. I'm like, get the, everybody go to, get out of here. I have three team teasers to lose. We have to talk football. Let's get to September. Enough of this and now we're here.

• 6:20Bill Simmons?

  One other wrinkle.

• 6:21Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 6:23Bill Simmons?

  Both of our teams have a chance to be good. Your over under is nine and a half, mine's 10 and a half. Both of them have been thrown into arguments about who could win a conference. Your team, dare I say, is becoming kind of the hot, the hot popular pick.

• 6:42Speaker 01

  Players no one knew about emerging, everyone's talking about them.

• 6:45Bill Simmons?

  Fix the defense. So we're gonna talk about them in a second. We're gonna start with the NFC East.

• 6:48Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 6:49Bill Simmons?

  House's division as well.

• 6:51Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 6:51Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 6:54Bill Simmons?

  House is just sad about the Redskins now commanders, but we'll talk about that too. We're gonna start with Philadelphia Eagles. Over under 10 and a half, there's juice on the under. Division plus 130. Feels like that's stayed the same, but the Cowboys division odds have dropped. 19-1 for Super Bowl, minus 162 for the playoffs. Under eight and a half wins, if you wanted to go for the everything goes wrong season, plus 210. Best record 11-1. They were 11-6 last year. We have a little game we're gonna play this year. We had, I had readers suggest that we should do like a what if thing. Like basically a what if for every team. So it'd be their best case scenario.

• 7:39Speaker 01

  You haven't written an article in 14 years.

• 7:41Bill Simmons?

  I meant listeners. Just conditionally, I want to say readers, listeners. But I want to do a what if for each team.

• 7:49Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 7:50Bill Simmons?

  My what if for this team, what if they don't miss A.J. Brown at all? That'd be the big reason not to take them, right?

• 7:57Speaker 01

  Definitely. Yeah. I'm looking at, you know, when your offense is comically inefficient, what do you do? You fire the OC.

• 8:03Bill Simmons?

  Yep.

• 8:04Speaker 01

  And you get rid of your stud receiver. Then that should fix everything. But yeah, you're right. He was reading books on the sideline. They didn't use him anyway.

• 8:13Bill Simmons?

  Didn't seem great for team chemistry. I found the email. It was from Joe from Charlotte. Oh, no, not Joe from Charlotte. Sean and Patrick. He said, my 11-year-old son, Patrick, and I are big fans. We fake this segment at home like we're Ringer Podcasts, so we play what if pick a player as good or bad. I'm gonna extend that out to this, like what if they don't miss A.J. Brown, I think is a good one. I, listen, I did my talent thing with the, with the Eagles. I think they have one of the five most stacked rosters in the league. I don't even think it's arguable. I had six guys in their defense that got points. I had five guys on their offense get points. They have a top three offensive line. They've been there, they win 10, 11 games every year and the over under is 10 and a

• 8:57Bill Simmons?

  half and I just don't understand it. It seems like people are anxiously trying to push this team out of the double-digit win range and kind of ignoring how loaded the roster is. I don't, do you, you hate the Eagles, but do you understand this?

• 9:11Speaker 01

  Well, I understand. I don't know why, what are you giving your offensive points based on? Because it's much different from year to year now, right? You have Saquon Barkley at 2,000 yards rushing, went down to 1,100. So what, you're gonna put him right in the middle at 15? That would be a good year.

• 9:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I have him like, I mean, he's somewhere between the fifth and ninth best running back. That's not nothing.

• 9:31Speaker 01

  We should probably lead with the tush push, which you won't hear me complain about as much this year because they went from like 81% conversion to 64%. Hertz runs a lot less, which I'm gonna talk about this a lot, where quarterbacks turn like 28 years old. That seems like the sweet spot. They're running less. He's already running less. He averages like six, six and a half.

• 9:50Bill Simmons?

  House is also running less.

• 9:51Speaker 01

  You're running less?

• 9:52Speaker 02

  A little bit.

• 9:53Speaker 01

  He has the runs more, but he's running less. So I don't know what, where you put this offense and Mackay-Lemmon will have to step up to replace A.J. Brown.

• 10:02Bill Simmons?

  They're like a receiver short, it feels like.

• 10:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly.

• 10:04Bill Simmons?

  I actually thought they should have traded for Booty.

• 10:07Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 10:07Bill Simmons?

  I thought he was our, I really liked him last year. I didn't under, I get the Pats were kind of too loaded at receiver, but I thought the Texans kind of stole him. He made big plays for us last year. Yeah, they feel like a receiver short, big Goddard year. I just, I love good offensive lines. There's so few of them now.

• 10:24Speaker 01

  Right.

• 10:25Bill Simmons?

  Like Tampa has one, they have one, you know, Buffalo has one. And I just wonder if that's like almost a cheat code now, but they're D. Carter, Davis, Bond, Greenard.

• 10:35Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:36Bill Simmons?

  Dejean, Mitchell.

• 10:39Speaker 01

  It goes on and on. It's nice. And the GM, uh, it does, he does, you know, he picks up two guys a year that you're like, oh my God, yeah, of course that worked out. But I feel like that offense, I don't know what their identity is anymore. It used to be grind and.

• 10:53Bill Simmons?

  But can it be worse? They flipped the coordinator again. Like my, my argument would be you're kind of buying high on something that everybody's kind of given up on being, but I always felt like they went too slow.

• 11:06Speaker 01

  Right.

• 11:06Bill Simmons?

  Like they were almost trying to protect hurts and I, I just don't think they're gonna do that anymore.

• 11:11Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 11:12Bill Simmons?

  They play the AFC South and the NFC West in a first place schedule. They don't play a lot of good quarterbacks. They played Dak twice. Daniels twice, Stafford, Caleb, Darnold and Purdy. Sal, I, I have them over. It's a slight over. It's an 11-6 for me.

• 11:30Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 11:32Bill Simmons?

  But I couldn't get to seven wins when I went through it. I just think they have too much talent. I think it's, this is stupid.

• 11:38Speaker 01

  Yeah. I mean, look, they have what? One of two teams to make the playoffs in each of the last five years. So that helps. I hate that they had back to back. They broke that streak of like 22 years for the NFC East. Trying not to get them a third division title. I have them at nine wins. They had, they were eight and four in one score games. Yeah. I think they're nine and eight. And then I'm going to take the under, the adjusted under. I think you get plus 125 for under nine and a half. If you want to do that.

• 12:03Bill Simmons?

  Oh my God.

• 12:04Speaker 01

  Way on. Yeah. I'm going to shove those winnings right off Big Dumb's.

• 12:06Bill Simmons?

  This feels personal.

• 12:07Speaker 01

  There. It is a little bit. By the way, I still do this, still do this nonsense. That, I was told by many people, House, that there are websites that I'll do this for you. But I put the wins and losses. I'm like, oh, okay. I gave the Phillies a win over Arizona. So I gotta give Arizona a loss. I gotta go to that sheet. So I'm a maniac with this, but meticulously I said, uh, nine and eight.

• 12:28Speaker 02

  Yeah. It's more likely to happen if you're holding the paper. That's why you need the paper.

• 12:32Speaker 01

  Right. Exactly.

• 12:35Bill Simmons?

  A big thing for me, and not to spoil the rest of the discussion about the division, but I think the other teams in this division, other than Dallas are going to be bad. And I'm just operating like Dallas and Philly can both go 4-0 in their divisions. Now Philly always has the weird Washington game every year.

• 12:50Speaker 01

  Right.

• 12:50Bill Simmons?

  Where it, it, is it every year or every other year?

• 12:54Speaker 02

  It's pretty much every year.

• 12:55Bill Simmons?

  There's something weird and you're like Philly's a big favorite. You have them in a three teamer or a two teamer or some sort of parlay. And all of a sudden they're down 10, 10-7 in the fourth quarter. You know what happened, but um, here's one other thing, Sal, before we finish.

• 13:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 13:11Bill Simmons?

  Well, first of all, new OC, better chemistry, added Jalen Phillips and Woolen. I don't know how they keep adding free agents every year. But I feel like this is like a last hurrah season for them. Cause they have these offensive linemen that are talking about retiring, right? This is almost definitely Lane Johnson's last year. Um, they have the Hertz contract. They've paid some guys. They have some younger guys that they hit some draft picks, but they're going to have to pay those guys too. They have the Barkley money. Like I, I don't think this is sustainable past this year. And I feel like during the season, if they need something, they're going to go get it.

• 13:44Speaker 01

  Kitchen sink game for, I think a few teams in the NFC is weird to say kitchen sink for teams that have had success, but this team, the Rams in a way are all in. The Lions, I think are all in like this is their window kind of closes after this, except for the fact that you're right. They play in the NFC East. Of which I gave one over and it's going to surprise you which over I, I gave, but uh, it's not this team.

• 14:05Speaker 02

  I'm going to be a dick. Is that what you're supposed to do from the Craig chair? You said, uh, Jalen Phillips. He is now on Carolina. They added Greenard.

• 14:12Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I had, I meant Greenard. Yeah.

• 14:14Speaker 02

  I know you meant.

• 14:15Bill Simmons?

  I like, I like this though, the correction.

• 14:17Speaker 02

  Okay. Good. Good. Good.

• 14:18Bill Simmons?

  My bad.

• 14:18Speaker 01

  Don't do it for me. Don't do it for me, House. I don't, I don't appreciate it.

• 14:23Bill Simmons?

  No, I meant Greenard.

• 14:24Speaker 02

  I know.

• 14:24Bill Simmons?

  I said Jalen Phillips.

• 14:25Speaker 02

  You did. Phillips left.

• 14:28Bill Simmons?

  That was really good, House. I needed to be corrected. I'm old.

• 14:30Speaker 02

  It's okay. So am I.

• 14:32Bill Simmons?

  Plus, House is awake in the mornings. That's one thing with House. Way better in the mornings.

• 14:36Speaker 01

  East Coast time?

• 14:36Speaker 02

  It is, it's midday on the East Coast. That's why.

• 14:38Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. He's, he's really awake. Okay. So I'm over, you're under. They play on Thanksgiving. Could swing both of these. Dallas is nine and a half. And pretty straight action. Did it start at eight and a half?

• 14:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 14:54Bill Simmons?

  And it bumped up. Last year was the opposite. You were up one and it dropped a win and it seemed like a red flag. Plus 175 for the division. Minus 120 for the playoffs, which I think is one of the single best bets. I just feel like they're one of the seven best. Yeah. I think they're one of the best NFC teams. 12 plus wins, plus 270. I would personally recommend the number one seed at 13 to one. If you're going to do the 12 plus, if you really like them. Best record 16 to one. Last year they were seven, nine and one.

• 15:22Speaker 01

  I hate this.

• 15:24Bill Simmons?

  Well, let me ask you this first.

• 15:25Speaker 01

  I hate how excited everyone is, including me.

• 15:28Bill Simmons?

  What would you consider to be right now, a successful Cowboys season?

• 15:34Speaker 01

  This is a what if?

• 15:34Bill Simmons?

  You're in mid-January. Now that, we're not even at the what ifs yet.

• 15:38Speaker 01

  We're not doing that yet?

• 15:38Bill Simmons?

  It's, let's say it's February 15th. The season's over.

• 15:41Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 15:42Bill Simmons?

  What's a successful Cowboys season for you? Now, obviously you could, you can't say the Superbowl, but what's like a realistic successful season?

• 15:49Speaker 01

  Jerry Jones, not a stroke, but now what's underneath, what was, does he had those mini?

• 15:56Speaker 02

  Yeah. Needs a defibrillator, what's it? Propertations?

• 16:00Speaker 01

  I think, are we going to give our division picks at the end of each thing? Okay.

• 16:06Speaker 01

  I think nine and eight, and they don't embarrass themselves defensively is a good.

• 16:10Bill Simmons?

  That's a success?

• 16:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think so.

• 16:12Bill Simmons?

  So you haven't even moved mentally to, we have to make the playoffs?

• 16:16Speaker 01

  I think, I think that could be enough to make the playoffs in this division. I do say, I am really, usually you know how it is. You, you, if I fall out of favor with this team, you'll talk me back in. You're like, all right, let's see, let's say they beat Carolina, they beat New Orleans. And like, we, we have to go through all the schedule, the whole schedule. I'm usually in and out of this team four times. I'm never usually in on them in August. I liked everything they did in the off season.

• 16:40Bill Simmons?

  I did too. Like, I hate saying it. I literally liked every move.

• 16:43Speaker 01

  George Pickens was going to be a headache. They locked him up, franchise tagged him with a smile, right? Javante Williams, a miracle thousand yard rusher last year for them. Good job. They got him. Defensively, I love it. Malachi Lawrence, Caleb Downs is looking like the best, the, the edge rusher from Michigan, the third rounder. Everyone loves him.

• 17:03Bill Simmons?

  Caleb Downs was the most predictable. Everybody going nuts about him in August. Like you, you knew it in the draft. It's like, this guy's going to fall four spots too low. And everybody's going to love him and he's going to be awesome immediately.

• 17:14Speaker 01

  They extend Quinnon Williams. Uh, Jones is not going to lose this Parsons trade. He, if it's the last thing he does, even more than making the playoffs. He has to be able to say, I won this Micah Parsons trade. So extend Quinnon Williams. They signed Rashawn Gary. They're doing good preseason.

• 17:30Bill Simmons?

  Ed Von Miller as like deep, deep, deep backup.

• 17:34Speaker 01

  Great.

• 17:34Bill Simmons?

  Just in case.

• 17:35Speaker 01

  When House's team did it, I laughed last year, but then he had like nine and a half sacks, which would have led the team.

• 17:40Bill Simmons?

  Bring him in a couple of third downs in a big game.

• 17:41Speaker 01

  And he's like a consultant too. Like a pass rush consultant as well. Preseason, he kicked the crap out of the defending champ Seahawks. They literally kicked the crap out of the Saints in a joint practice. And another joint practice with the Rams. They say at the end of it, they're like, hey, we're running wind sprints. You want to join us? And they're like, kids, go ahead, go ahead. You do your thing.

• 18:01Bill Simmons?

  And you liked the coach too. He was good last year.

• 18:03Speaker 01

  I do. He's not bad.

• 18:05Bill Simmons?

  Wasn't like the easiest year last year, but uh, it seems like the team likes him and.

• 18:09Speaker 01

  And Eberflus held them back a little. And defensively they were garbage, absolute garbage. Has to get better. And I feel like their defense has not been the same since I watched them with House and you against the Packers in the playoffs in the living room. They've lost their home field edge and they lost any kind of defensive semblance, but they're.

• 18:28Bill Simmons?

  New defensive coordinator.

• 18:29Speaker 01

  He's like, he's 29 years old or something. Christian Parker.

• 18:33Bill Simmons?

  My player rankings, I had them at 20 points, which isn't bad. 20 and up is usually around the playoffs.

• 18:38Speaker 01

  Sorry. Yeah.

• 18:39Bill Simmons?

  I had the Eagles at 32, by the way.

• 18:42Bill Simmons?

  Quiet, drama free Cowboys season for the most part of the off season?

• 18:46Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 18:46Bill Simmons?

  Like, no, you don't have some weird contract holdout or Jerry being weird, nothing like that. My what if for this team was what if this is the team people seem to think the Bengals are going to be? Because I do think they're the NFC Bengals, but I think, cause everyone, it was like, oh, the Bengals, their defense is better. Cool. You made your defense better, but you have a better offensive line and just a better offense. I think a more reliable offense in general.

• 19:13Speaker 01

  Yeah. I guess I just don't, I never really worry about the offense. I guess it is a good comparison, but when Dak plays, I think the number is like 11 plus games. Their top eight offense always. So they don't have a problem scoring points. It's keeping them off the board. They're moving to a three, four defense. They can move to a fricking one, six. I don't give a crap. Just do something different.

• 19:35Bill Simmons?

  You got a good net rest edge, third. You got 12 games in a dome.

• 19:42Bill Simmons?

  The road games are rough. Um, and you play some good defenses. You play Philly twice, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore, Rams, Green Bay. The Giants twice, if they're going to be a good defense, who knows?

• 19:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 19:55Bill Simmons?

  I, uh, I'm a hard over.

• 19:57Speaker 01

  Really?

• 19:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. I'm a fully erect over.

• 20:00Speaker 02

  My word.

• 20:01Bill Simmons?

  Nine and a half.

• 20:02Speaker 01

  In front of Farah here? Come on.

• 20:03Bill Simmons?

  I think, I think, I have them for 11 and six. I did stare at the 12 plus wins at plus 270. I think some stuff would have to go right from a health standpoint. And you'd probably have to catch in that bad schedule, like one or two of those teams in a week where one of their guys are hurt or whatever. But I think it's either 11 or 12. And uh, I, this is, we're doing locks this year. I didn't tell you. Can slap a lockdown on a pick.

• 20:28Speaker 01

  Oh, really?

• 20:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. We do this in NBA. We never really did this for NFL. This is my first lock. Over nine and a half Dallas lock.

• 20:36Speaker 01

  Oh man, this is so scary. This is just, this is just so he could yell at me.

• 20:39Speaker 02

  He's doing it to you.

• 20:40Speaker 01

  When they're one and three, he could yell at me. It's like, this is your fault, but.

• 20:44Speaker 02

  Well, they're not going to be one and three because they opened with Washington and New York.

• 20:47Bill Simmons?

  I'm not spiteful like you. I wouldn't give your quarterback a derogatory nickname and then really push it and say it on pods and. Probably wear a T-shirt for week one and Drake maybe.

• 20:58Speaker 01

  Oh, I gotta get that going. You're right.

• 21:00Bill Simmons?

  I just, I like being right and winning money. And Dallas is going to be good this year. And I think there's five teams I like in the NFC and we just did two of them.

• 21:09Speaker 01

  I have nine and eight and I have the Eagles at nine and eight. So we won't pick our division yet, but we have to make a decision.

• 21:16Bill Simmons?

  So that's an under?

• 21:17Speaker 01

  That's an under. Unfortunately, that's an under. Better than what they were last year.

• 21:21Bill Simmons?

  So it feels like an emotional hedge.

• 21:23Speaker 01

  Yeah. Seven and 10 to nine and eight. Always a tough schedule. You know, the defense has a lot of work to do, really a lot, you know? 511 points allowed, 30 plus in eight games. Let's get that down to 26.

• 21:36Bill Simmons?

  Did that feel like an emotional hedge to you?

• 21:38Speaker 02

  A thousand percent. This is the cousin sell, undersell. His enthusiasm.

• 21:43Bill Simmons?

  Ridiculous. Full Quinnon Williams season? You also have the Parsons not probably coming back to like week eight. And even when he comes back, won't be a hundred percent. So there'll be a lot of like, whoa, Jerry did win that trade.

• 21:56Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah. Yeah.

• 21:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Um, okay. Next one. The Washington C-words.

• 22:01Speaker 02

  Uh-oh.

• 22:04Bill Simmons?

  They're over seven and a half wins.

• 22:08Bill Simmons?

  Under six and a half alt on Fanduel, plus 125. Under five and a half, plus 220. Worst record, if you wanted to get really crazy, 15 to one.

• 22:19Speaker 02

  That's so mean.

• 22:20Bill Simmons?

  They were five and 12 last year. Six to one for the division, by the way, 71 for the Super Bowl, plus 280 for the playoffs.

• 22:30Bill Simmons?

  They lost Tunsil for the season, and I didn't like their offensive line to begin with. And there's been, if you're actually reading like the day to day reports.

• 22:38Speaker 01

  The beat writers are going nuts.

• 22:39Bill Simmons?

  Really, really rough stuff with the offensive line, which normally like not everybody has a good offensive line. But their quarterback is 127 pounds. So the skinny quarterback who got hurt last year combined with nobody can block.

• 22:53Speaker 01

  Right.

• 22:54Bill Simmons?

  I'm out.

• 22:55Speaker 01

  Man.

• 22:58Speaker 01

  I have them over. I like them. I think we correctly sat here.

• 23:02Bill Simmons?

  Three in a row we've disagreed?

• 23:04Speaker 01

  Yeah. A year ago, we said this is the regression team. They had a ton of luck, right? The Hail Mary, right? Again, the house against the Bears and all that. Jaden Daniels, terrific. They're going to get injury luck. They spent a ton of money on old players last year. This year, they spent a ton of money, I think, top three, 200 million, and it's a more balanced age wise. They were 11 months older than the next oldest team, which is gigantic difference. It doesn't seem like it. Offensive line, that, that part sucks for sure, but they had seven games with Jaden Daniels. I have them at eight and nine. I think Owen, Sonny, Sonny Stiles, Stiles is a good pick, right? Owen's a nice pickup defensively.

• 23:45Bill Simmons?

  Stiles is a good pick, but it also might be, we could, we should have taken Caleb Downs by like week five.

• 23:51Speaker 01

  Yeah. They got confused.

• 23:53Bill Simmons?

  That's looming.

• 23:54Speaker 01

  Interesting. How about this? Wes Welker is their tight end coach. That, that should give you a lot of.

• 23:59Bill Simmons?

  Tight end coach? Why is he a receiver coach?

• 24:01Speaker 01

  I don't know. He convinced them. Plus nine rest advantage. Zero opponents coming off a bye. I see like eight wins here. Three division wins, plus Indy, Tennessee, and Arizona. They'll win a dumb one over Cincinnati or something. So I got them at eight.

• 24:17Bill Simmons?

  Not only do I have them under seven and a half, it's a lock for me. It's my second lock.

• 24:22Speaker 01

  Really?

• 24:22Bill Simmons?

  You haven't done a lock yet. I have two locks already.

• 24:24Speaker 02

  Only in the first division, two locks out of you.

• 24:26Bill Simmons?

  I have two locks already.

• 24:27Speaker 02

  God, he can't keep in his pants, cuz. He's looking at Farrah Fawcett locking everything.

• 24:32Bill Simmons?

  Schedule is, I mean, they start out at Eagles, at Cowboys, home Seahawks, and then they have to go to London and play the Colts. That could be 0-4 before we're even in October yet, or middle of October yet, but I don't see it at all. I, I was circling the Dan Quinn first coach fired. House was adamant this morning over coffee. No way they'll keep him for the whole year, but I, I didn't think he did a good job last year either.

• 25:00Speaker 01

  It could be a top five for us. Well, I mean, so many injuries. I think the fourth most injured team out there, so.

• 25:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, he's not building the roster. Like, they tried to run it back after 2024. So you can't fire him for, for two years. They, they tried, I mean, Sal made the point. They got, uh, they, they tried to run back that same oldest team in the NFL, that experienced veteran stuff. Of course, they had injury regression. The other thing was they were horrific in terms of creating turnovers, because all those old guys are a step behind everybody. This defense is the big wild card. There's seven new stars on the defense. So the whole season will come down to whether or not the defense, you know, is different.

• 25:40Bill Simmons?

  See, House is representing, because he's a DC fan, doesn't want to see like a party pooper.

• 25:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 25:45Bill Simmons?

  There's been private conversations with House where he hasn't been this optimistic.

• 25:48Speaker 02

  I acknowledge.

• 25:51Speaker 02

  Well, the problem is Tunsil. Like, what a punch in the cock.

• 25:55Bill Simmons?

  How about this? Tunsil.

• 25:57Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 25:58Bill Simmons?

  What skill guys do you like on the, on the commanders? It's like Terry McLaurin, he's the 30th best receiver in the league?

• 26:05Speaker 01

  You didn't mind Diggs. They have that, what is he, from Arkansas? You got Antonio Williams, right?

• 26:09Speaker 02

  Yeah, Antonio Williams is good.

• 26:11Bill Simmons?

  God bless Diggs. Diggs played 35 plays a game.

• 26:15Speaker 02

  He's a possession receiver. They didn't have one of those last year.

• 26:17Bill Simmons?

  Was disappeared in the playoffs. I mean, in the Super Bowl, I didn't even think he played.

• 26:22Speaker 01

  Bill, and the tight end coach is Wes Welker. You should be in on this team.

• 26:26Bill Simmons?

  I'm out.

• 26:27Speaker 02

  It's a great point.

• 26:28Bill Simmons?

  It's a hard argument.

• 26:29Speaker 02

  The tight end from Tennessee.

• 26:30Bill Simmons?

  Who did you have for this?

• 26:32Speaker 02

  Huh?

• 26:32Bill Simmons?

  How'd you have for the over for this, for your own team?

• 26:35Speaker 02

  Um, I can't remember what we said on the NFC East show. Eight is a super hard number to get to, because this schedule is just a punch in, in the, in the dick.

• 26:43Bill Simmons?

  You can't remember if you have over or under?

• 26:45Speaker 02

  I gave it, it's on the, it's on the, it's on the rare wise guy show. I bet I did the over and said eight wins.

• 26:51Speaker 01

  Blau, the new offensive coordinator. You remember betting, betting him on Thanksgiving?

• 26:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we won some money on Blau.

• 26:56Speaker 01

  All right.

• 26:57Bill Simmons?

  I don't see it at all. And the other thing I don't like is near the end of the season, they, they have at Vikings, at Jaguars, and then the Cowboys. And I, I just think, unless the Cowboys are like the one seed, like that game's going to actually mean something for the Cowboys. So.

• 27:13Speaker 02

  Yeah, four of their last five are Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Dallas.

• 27:18Bill Simmons?

  They have a stretch, week eight, week nine, week 10, home Eagles on the Sunday night, home Rams the next week, and then at Giants on a Thursday night game.

• 27:28Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:28Bill Simmons?

  That's three in a row. And that's like, that's the one where.

• 27:31Speaker 01

  It's funny, because I look at that 10 to 13 stretch, Giants, Cincy, Arizona, Tennessee. Like, if they're anywhere near four wins at that point, they're an over.

• 27:39Bill Simmons?

  Under, uh, under for you, over lock for me. So I've done two locks.

• 27:43Speaker 01

  No, by the way, you went on, you are under.

• 27:46Bill Simmons?

  I'm under, you're over. That's what I said.

• 27:47Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's what you said.

• 27:50Bill Simmons?

  Second mistake of the podcast. It's my pace for 20.

• 27:53Speaker 01

  It's Netflix, you know? Chappelle makes mistakes all the time.

• 27:56Bill Simmons?

  Netflix is like, what's going on? Where's the true crime stuff? One of these guys gonna try to kill each other? Last one, the Giants. The over under is seven and a half. Pretty even juice on that. Plus 550 for division.

• 28:11Bill Simmons?

  They're four and 13 last year. They are plus 265 to make the playoffs. Plus 290 for 10 plus wins. I'd probably recommend that. Under five and a half, plus 250. Worst record, 20 to one.

• 28:24Bill Simmons?

  First what if for me?

• 28:27Bill Simmons?

  What if Jackson Dart plays eight games or less?

• 28:30Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 28:31Bill Simmons?

  Well, guess what? He's going to play eight games or less. So what's, what's your pick, knowing that Jackson Dart will not make it to 10 games this season?

• 28:38Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean.

• 28:39Bill Simmons?

  He gets hurt every other game.

• 28:40Speaker 01

  How would we analyze Tua like three years ago? It's like, well, he's not going to make it or, right?

• 28:46Bill Simmons?

  Right. And then we were right. He didn't make it.

• 28:48Speaker 01

  This will be the same thing.

• 28:49Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 28:49Speaker 01

  And I don't know, man, maybe you should pass me on this. I, I should pass because I just, I, I just hate this team so much. But I'm going to go under. I just don't think, they have offensive players who play defensive football. Like, Scatabo took out like secondary guys yesterday. It's like, hey, this is an out contact thing, and Dart can't stay on the field. He's going to the tent. He's complaining that they're sending him to tent. Like, he's been to the tent 43% of his games. Like, guess what? The league is not going to go under because of Jackson Dart. You have two concussions already. They're going to send you to the tent. Neighbors at least plays like an offensive player, and he can't stay on the field. Give me an over under for those three core offensive players playing together. I'd start at like three and a half.

• 29:29Bill Simmons?

  Scatabo and Dart.

• 29:31Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 29:31Bill Simmons?

  All playing a start to finish game.

• 29:33Speaker 01

  Together, yeah.

• 29:35Bill Simmons?

  Five and a half?

• 29:36Speaker 01

  Oh, man. I go under.

• 29:37Bill Simmons?

  You go under on four and a half?

• 29:39Speaker 01

  Yeah. I think it's like three, three and a half is what I would say. Like, I don't know. I don't know. You know, and everybody, there's a lot of pressure on us media. We lose our media, sports media card if we don't take a fourth place team to win the division. I don't think this is it at all.

• 29:51Bill Simmons?

  As you know, I, I love nothing more than that.

• 29:54Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 29:55Bill Simmons?

  It's what, it's, and it's been really reliable over the years. And every year, there's been pretty, pretty reliable picks for that. Last year was a little tougher, but the Patriots were a great example. It was like, they added Vrabel, they spent some money, they finally had a good draft. It was just the easiest schedule possible. Could see that coming, and the odds kind of reflected it.

• 30:14Speaker 01

  Right.

• 30:15Bill Simmons?

  I just don't think there's necessarily the team this year. You're like, you're really jamming it, forcing it. I wanted it to be the Giants in like April, because they, they blew chippers on defense. They, you know, they had two picks in the top 12 and some money to spend, but, um, we didn't talk about the biggest reason I don't think it's going to happen. I, I just, I'm not, I'm out on John Harbaugh.

• 30:37Speaker 01

  John Harbaugh, yeah.

• 30:39Bill Simmons?

  I, and I think it's going to tie into what I do in the AFC too. Like, I think he ran his course there. I'm not even sure he was good to begin with. And I don't think this is like Mike Vrabel going to the Pats or Jim Harbaugh going to the Chargers. I don't think he's going to have an impact like that. And if anything, I think this season might expose, maybe he wasn't as good as we thought because of what's happened with the Ravens and then the Giants, so.

• 31:02Speaker 01

  They were bad in one score games last year, right? That famously, the Russell Wilson one, they blew to the Cowboys, went to overtime and everything. And then John Harbaugh is going to fix that? No one blows 10 point leads like he does in the fourth quarter, right? So that's, that's what's going to be the fix.

• 31:17Bill Simmons?

  We talked about this on the fantasy pod too. It's a classic, ask the team's fans what their opinion is.

• 31:24Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 31:25Bill Simmons?

  And, you know, like, I watch every Red Sox game. I, literally since the NBA draft, I think I've, I've seen 95% of the season. And like, we have a shortstop, Monastrio, who's like a feel good story. He's terrible defensively. And if you watch it day to day, so like there was a game, a national game, like two weeks ago, and Tom Verducci was the announcer, and he's the national announcer, he doesn't know, but he's like, "The Monastario's been really good defensively." And my Red Sox, they were like, "Oh, my God." That's the worst pity of the year. But you know, the fans know.

• 31:57Speaker 01

  He's not watching.

• 31:57Bill Simmons?

  And if you talk to any Ravens fan, they were completely out on Harbaugh. They just thought he was bad.

• 32:03Speaker 02

  Yeah, the canary in the coal mine there is how bad he's been on fourth down decisions and has been going on for a while. He's in the bottom quarter of the league and, and, and he's been overly unnecessarily conservative. And now he's paired with Matt Nagy.

• 32:19Bill Simmons?

  Right. We didn't talk about that. Matt Nagy. But, you know, if you go backwards, he's probably getting fired that year when he threw Lamar and Lamar saved his job and gave him the second run. But I, I've always felt like he was a little overrated. I thought his last couple of years, I don't, I just don't feel like he got enough shit for everything. And it really seemed like some of the players were out on him too. So.

• 32:41Speaker 01

  Yeah, this is, this is. You know what?

• 32:44Bill Simmons?

  Big under for me.

• 32:45Speaker 01

  Lock me in for this.

• 32:46Bill Simmons?

  You're locking in. Nice.

• 32:47Speaker 01

  Yeah, I don't want to, I don't want to fall too far behind with the locks. The other thing is no one gave up more big plays than the Giants. 124 big plays and Dexter Lawrence's productivity tailed off a little. He had like five sacks, I think, last year. It's because he was double teamed more than anybody else. They've given up big plays and the guy who was double teamed all year is gone now. So that's it. So that's what's going to happen. Toughest road slate in the league, Rams, Commanders, Texans, Eagles, Colts, Seahawks, Lions, Cowboys.

• 33:14Bill Simmons?

  That's another reason. The schedule's brutal.

• 33:16Speaker 01

  Rough. Five and 12.

• 33:18Bill Simmons?

  And then they end the season at Cowboys, home Eagles, and I think both of those teams are going to have something to play for too.

• 33:25Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 33:25Bill Simmons?

  And then the other question, we haven't talked about this yet, but, and it's not, it didn't apply to Washington. But as these teams get into December, if they're out of it, how do they start handling that? We don't really have tanking in the NFL, but I, I feel like we're going to have a form of it this year.

• 33:40Speaker 01

  Well, we saw with Jackson Dart, right? When they were out of it, like, well, we're going to keep them out of these meaningless games. So yeah, that's the closest you'll get to that.

• 33:47Bill Simmons?

  Or maybe you decide Jackson Dart's not sustainable as a starting QB. We got to, uh,

• 33:51Speaker 01

  Right.

• 33:52Bill Simmons?

  Maybe think of another one. Okay. So for the division, you have?

• 33:56Speaker 01

  I have two nine-win teams in the Cowboys and Eagles, and Cowboys have a better plus number to win the division. So that's my team at nine and eight to take it.

• 34:05Bill Simmons?

  I have both the Cowboys and Eagles going 11 and six. So I'm going to have to recommend the division for the Cowboys. I'm leaning that way for the plus 175.

• 34:15Speaker 01

  Good for you. Don't get mad at me, please.

• 34:17Bill Simmons?

  I have Cowboys over nine and a half lock and I have Washington under seven and a half lock. You have Giants under five and a half or six and a half?

• 34:28Speaker 01

  Uh, what do we go with that?

• 34:29Bill Simmons?

  No, it's bigger.

• 34:31Speaker 01

  Seven and a half.

• 34:31Bill Simmons?

  Seven and a half.

• 34:32Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 34:32Bill Simmons?

  That's a lock for you.

• 34:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm doing a plus adjustment here.

• 34:35Bill Simmons?

  House, we're giving you 90 seconds for each division. Go.

• 34:38Speaker 02

  I am super bullish on the Philadelphia Eagles this upcoming season. Um, it hurt me in my heart because I have too many Eagles fans in my life and I really detest it. But the way this division is shaking out, the step backwards, Washington was poised to make a big jump forward after last season and these injuries that we're seeing, offensive line and especially Tunsil is just such a gut wrench, gut punch bummer.

• 35:03Bill Simmons?

  It's a gut wrench, gut punch. Wow.

• 35:05Speaker 01

  Wrenched and powerful gut.

• 35:07Speaker 02

  The Giants are going to suck. The Giants are going to suck, suck. This is it for, for Harbaugh, uh, you know.

• 35:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, this could be like a Pete Carroll Vegas, like leaning more that way where it's like, oh, they got Pete Carroll credibility.

• 35:17Speaker 02

  I love that. I love that. Yeah. And Dallas is going to be better. I have them at exactly nine wins. Um, because with the question marks with whether or not that defense really will translate, but, uh, it's an Eagles division. I'm on Eagles overs and all the rest of it.

• 35:31Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 35:33Bill Simmons?

  I guess, I guess I have to stick with Dallas for the division, but I do think the Eagles are going to be really good. Okay. That was the NFC East. We're in good pace. 35 minutes. We're going to take a break?

• 35:43Speaker 01

  We talked about Farah and other things.

• 35:44Bill Simmons?

  We're going to take a break. We're going to come back and, uh, we're going to do the NFC North.

• 35:49Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Before the football season begins, every team is undefeated. That's right. Even the Jets. Every fan believes this could be the year that the team makes the playoffs, maybe even lifts the trophy. FanDuel, they're right in there with it. You can bet on all of it. You can use your NFL futures, rewards stack for an even bigger payout. FanDuel giving everyone five 50% PBTs. That's right, five. Can only be used from Thursday, 8/27 until end of day, Monday, 8/31. So unlock and use them before it's too late. Take some advice from me and the Cuz. Check out our favorite futures picks. Get your bets in today on FanDuel. Visit FanDuel.com/BS to get started.

• 36:34Bill Simmons?

  21-plus select states or 18-plus DC, Kentucky, Wyoming. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by one of my best friends in life, NFL Sunday Ticket. Man, I missed it. Kickoff's coming. Yeah, we're getting close. We're within a month. With NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, you get every game, every Sunday, all in one place and it's magnificent. And there's no other way to follow the NFL season. I'm so mad I didn't get YouTube TV until a couple of years ago because, um, it's the best.

• 37:11Bill Simmons?

  New users, that might include you, can get NFL Sunday Ticket for eight payments of just $30 a month. You heard me correctly. New users pay $240 or eight, eight non-cancelable payments of $30 a month. First charge at purchase. Availability varies with NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games and YouTube TV for local and national games. YouTube TV required. Terms, restrictions and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded. No refunds.

• 37:42Bill Simmons?

  We were just staring at Farah during the break.

• 37:44Speaker 01

  We were a little distracted. Yeah.

• 37:47Bill Simmons?

  Can't tell if that's a shadow or a possible, like, slight cold sore or lower lip.

• 37:51Speaker 02

  Looks like a cold sore.

• 37:52Bill Simmons?

  Makes me like her more. Um, we took.

• 37:55Speaker 01

  And Don Johnson has gonorrhea for sure.

• 37:58Bill Simmons?

  Just for being next to.

• 37:59Speaker 02

  Did he give her that cold sore?

• 38:01Bill Simmons?

  Well, we took a smoke break for Don and Don still just, he just continued to smoke.

• 38:05Speaker 01

  He's always staring at me.

• 38:06Bill Simmons?

  NFC North.

• 38:09Bill Simmons?

  Hardest division of the, of the eight, right?

• 38:11Speaker 01

  It's tough.

• 38:12Bill Simmons?

  You could really make a case for, there's people making cases for the Vikings. Um.

• 38:17Speaker 01

  There's a lot of people making case for the Vikings.

• 38:19Bill Simmons?

  We're going to start with the Detroit Lions, though.

• 38:23Bill Simmons?

  A sexy summer team. People really excited for them. They're over under shocking, 10 and a half. I thought it was going to be nine and a half. I don't, did it start at nine and a half or no?

• 38:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, it was for, for a little while.

• 38:34Bill Simmons?

  Bumped up. Divisions plus 160, Super Bowl 8 to 1, playoffs minus 205. 13-plus wins, plus 270. You're better off doing best record of plus 850. Uh, under eight and a half wins is three to one. There's a couple of these that hit every year and we've, uh, we, like, if you had the Chiefs last year and you had them under even eight wins, that was like plus 400.

• 38:57Speaker 01

  In November that round. Yep.

• 38:59Bill Simmons?

  I have two what ifs for you and you pick which one you want to answer. What if this is the Jameer Gibbs, holy shit, 2006 Tomlinson season? What if this is the Dan Campbell farewell season? You can go either way. Pick one.

• 39:13Speaker 01

  Interesting.

• 39:15Speaker 01

  I think this is the do or die for the Dan Campbell kneecap biting experiment. I really do. We talked about like three teams in the NFC. I think this has to be due. I know the injury luck, this is completely opposite of what we're going to talk about with the Bears because they were like 31 in injury luck, 32, 30 or 32 in fumble luck. Like it's all that crazy stuff. And they have, I'll, I'll take both at once because Gibbs should be better dropping Montgomery, right? So should get a lot of those goal line carries. Good for you if you have the number one fantasy pick. But it's going to be a reversal of fortune. Can they not be the number two injured team in the league?

• 39:59Speaker 01

  Like it, it doesn't, that's what we have to get past.

• 40:02Bill Simmons?

  It already started out bad because they lost Arnold and they have a shaky secondary to begin with, which is the big flaw. New offensive coordinator and hopefully better health. I, I, in my, in my roster rankings, I had them in the 30s at 31. Their offense is fucking loaded.

• 40:19Speaker 01

  31?

• 40:20Bill Simmons?

  31 points.

• 40:21Speaker 01

  A lot of points. Okay.

• 40:22Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. They're one of the five 30 foot. Goff, five. Gibbs, three. Could be a four. St. Brown, four. Jameson Williams was like an 1,100 yard receiver last year. Laporta hopefully healthy. Their O-line is above average, two points for that. And then defense, Hutchinson, Campbell, Joseph and Branch. And the rub against them is, well, Joseph and Branch are going to be hurt to start the season. Then you look at the schedule, Saints, week one, at Bills, Jets, at Panthers, at Cardinals, bye. Only one of those teams are going to be able to throw on them, which is the Bills. I think if they get out of that four and one, that over becomes more realistic. I like the bounce back. You talked about this on the NFC, NFC North pod. They're underdogs in three games.

• 41:07Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 41:07Bill Simmons?

  Against the spread. Um, they get to play the AFC East and the NFC South. AFC East Dolphins, Jets. NFC South, really probably three bad to almost bad teams. I'm a slight over. I'm 11 and six.

• 41:22Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 41:23Bill Simmons?

  And I know it's popular. I know it's a sexy pick, but I think the schedule, they get to play Shuck, Gino, Bryce, Brissette, Willis, Penix or Tua, Cam Ward, who's been a disaster in the preseason, Kyler Murray, Jackson Dart or whoever his backup is, like.

• 41:40Speaker 01

  Wow. When you put it that way, that's interesting. I mean, because I think they're going to be a good team, but going to win 10 games, which puts them under, right? They're 10 and seven for me.

• 41:49Bill Simmons?

  It's a tough one.

• 41:50Speaker 01

  The only thing I disagree with you saying is like an above average offensive line. They couldn't protect Goff. They were like 31st.

• 41:55Bill Simmons?

  They had injuries last year though.

• 41:55Speaker 01

  They had injuries.

• 41:56Bill Simmons?

  It's a little better this year.

• 41:57Speaker 01

  And they're still, they're moving Penny Sewell to the left side. Miller, their, their first round pick's going to be on the right side. So that's.

• 42:02Bill Simmons?

  They've at least spent money and assets trying to fix it and last year they couldn't.

• 42:06Speaker 01

  Exactly. So they could get off to a strong start. You said it, Jets, Carolina, Arizona, New Orleans in four of the first five. We could be looking at like a five and O Lions team and then saying, oh my God, why didn't we dump more? The problem is they always lose one of those dumb ass games, like on the road. They'll have like 17 points with four minutes left against like Carolina. It's like, what the hell is going on here? I have Gibbs two plus touchdowns in this game and it's not even close.

• 42:29Bill Simmons?

  One of the reasons I really like the over, because I do think they'll go four and one or five and O, whatever. So now.

• 42:35Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 42:35Bill Simmons?

  That becomes easier. If I have to get to 11 wins, now I only need seven.

• 42:39Speaker 01

  Three months to do it. Yeah.

• 42:40Bill Simmons?

  You can also really zag against this at the end of the year because week 17, week 18 is Bears, Packers, both road games. So if they're 10 and five or nine and six, I feel like you can get out of that or you can hedge those games.

• 42:55Speaker 01

  Right.

• 42:56Bill Simmons?

  But, um, I think they're, I just think they're going to be good. I think they have too much talent and whether or not this is kind of the. The make or break Dan Campbell season, I think they have one more in them. Usually these windows are four, right? They had, two years ago was like, they're big, they almost made it. But this feels like a four-year window to me. And Gibbs is spectacular. I mean, they had the skill positions. When you compare them to other teams we talked about, like, they have, well, a top-five wide receiver. They probably have the best running back.

• 43:27Speaker 01

  Right.

• 43:27Bill Simmons?

  They have one of the four best tight ends, and they have a quarterback who every year throws for 4,500 yards.

• 43:33Speaker 01

  Protect golf and they should be fine. And I think too much is made of, oh, Ben Johnson left and this offense can't do it. Well, they were plus 66 point differential for a fourth-place team. That's insanity. And they beat Ben Johnson twice.

• 43:46Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 43:47Speaker 01

  They'll be okay.

• 43:50Bill Simmons?

  How's you, are you pro or?

• 43:52Speaker 02

  I'm very pro on Detroit. They went nine and eight last season with all of that injury.

• 43:57Bill Simmons?

  Everything went wrong. They went nine and eight.

• 43:59Speaker 02

  And they had a top-10-ish difficulty in terms of schedule. This schedule is the thing that sets it up for me. Because you mentioned the division that could, if they can go three and three in their own division, you can go through that schedule and find the eight wins to get you to 11. So it's a good over for me.

• 44:14Speaker 01

  Lot of indoor games, too. Miami's their outdoor game until like the Bears in January. Like, that's their only outdoor game.

• 44:21Bill Simmons?

  I would have locked it, but I do wonder with the injury juju with them makes me nervous. It just seems like they've had bad luck now for a couple of years here. Packers over nine and a half, division plus 260. Super Bowl 22 to 1. Playoffs about as even as we get here. They're minus 116 to make it, minus 102 not to make it. 12-plus wins, plus 270. Under seven-half wins is plus 260. There's a couple of these, a couple of the all-unders for this division. If you figure all four of these teams can't be good, who's gonna have like the year from hell or whatever? It says seven and 10-win candidate. They were nine, seven, and one last year. Little fluky because they knew they were in the playoffs with two games to go.

• 45:03Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 45:05Bill Simmons?

  My would have for them is, they lost their last five games last year post Parsons injury, right?

• 45:11Speaker 01

  Right.

• 45:11Bill Simmons?

  He's not coming back till week nine. What if that's just who they are? A 500 team?

• 45:19Speaker 01

  Yeah. I think they could be 500 until they get, I mean, I like this team a lot, a lot more than.

• 45:24Bill Simmons?

  Really? I'm so interested. Why?

• 45:25Speaker 01

  We kill LaFleur, and he's killed us on three-team teasers and parlays and everything, so.

• 45:30Bill Simmons?

  He's like, I've killed you too.

• 45:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, we've killed you. I feel like to blow those Bears games, that second one, that was like England, Argentina. Like, they just played on their heels. Like, that's perplexing if you go back and watch that game. You had the conversation with Mina. Jordan Love, I think, a lot better, not just statistically, when you look. And I feel like they had seven of the same receivers and they got like five of them. Became too confusing between the Wicks and the Dobbs. And now, so they settled on Jaden Reed and Justin Watson. And those guys, of course, have to stay healthy, but I think that's the best of the bunch. Tucker Kraft.

• 46:04Bill Simmons?

  So you think they weeded out?

• 46:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think it just got too distracting. Like, I don't even know what our options is.

• 46:08Bill Simmons?

  Wizards had seven swingmen.

• 46:10Speaker 01

  Oh, here we go.

• 46:10Speaker 02

  Christian Watson.

• 46:11Speaker 01

  Christian Watson. What did I say?

• 46:13Speaker 02

  Justin, it's okay. That's what I'm here for.

• 46:14Speaker 01

  No, you're good. Thank you. Thank you, I appreciate it. I did know that, yeah.

• 46:17Speaker 02

  I know.

• 46:17Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 46:18Bill Simmons?

  So you think they picked the best three? Because I would argue Dobbs is the most reliable of all the guys that, I just don't trust Christian Watson. You know why? Because they've had him in fantasy, and so have you.

• 46:29Speaker 01

  Right.

• 46:29Bill Simmons?

  And guess what? The red flag is next to him by week three, or he's out, or he's coming back.

• 46:34Speaker 01

  The challenge flag or the red?

• 46:35Bill Simmons?

  Every flag, every flag's next to him.

• 46:37Speaker 01

  Yeah. Listen, when the ball's in the air and he gets separation, there's probably no one better, right? I mean, Tyreek Hill's gone, so Christian Watson, I got that right, right? Is the one, I don't know. They might not even be the best, too. I just think it got cluttered with all, having like five different options. And now he could, he could zone in.

• 46:55Bill Simmons?

  So they're only down to Watson, Reed, and Golden, who I had last year on both fantasy teams. So they never, ever threw to.

• 47:02Speaker 01

  Right.

• 47:04Bill Simmons?

  Gannon's the DC, which I liked.

• 47:06Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 47:08Bill Simmons?

  LaFleur every year is a top-10 offense, so that's a positive. I really went back and forth on this. And Tucker Kraft, I love. I assume he'll be 100%. I did like a better and worse for, in my notes, for how I thought the team was better than last year I thought was worse. The worst, like, really made me lean under.

• 47:27Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 47:28Bill Simmons?

  They lost Dobbs, who I thought made big catches for them. Their offensive line and their defensive line in both trenches, they really lost, like, they're about now below average on both sides. That's just a fact. Parsons probably not back to week eight, week nine range, maybe even for your Dallas game.

• 47:45Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 47:46Bill Simmons?

  They, not only are they only have three receivers left, it's a position they've spent a lot of assets on over the years.

• 47:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 47:53Bill Simmons?

  Like, I think Watson was a first-round pick. Golden definitely was. But just in general, they're always, over and over again, spending stuff, they only have three left.

• 48:03Speaker 01

  It's okay to have three receivers.

• 48:05Bill Simmons?

  No, I know, but I just feel like they've spent a lot of assets on it. Not to mention the Parsons trade.

• 48:09Speaker 01

  Right.

• 48:09Bill Simmons?

  Which left them without a first-round pick. LaFleur, even though they gave him a contract, I still feel like he's in limbo. Jacobs got in trouble, had a thing in the offseason, not great. Their special teams always sucks. I had them at 22 points for their roster, which usually throws me toward the playoffs, but I couldn't get there. I'm under, I'm nine and eight.

• 48:33Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 48:33Bill Simmons?

  I think they were nine and seven and one last year. I think they're nine and eight. There's a team I like more in this division than them.

• 48:38Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 48:38Bill Simmons?

  And I did not want to have three playoff teams, so they were the loser, nine and eight. But I don't feel great about it.

• 48:43Speaker 01

  I have them at 11 and 6. I think the Jacobs thing.

• 48:46Bill Simmons?

  That feels like a lock.

• 48:47Speaker 01

  Jacobs is troubling, for sure. He's gonna miss time. But Marshawn Lynch is not a bad, Marshawn Lloyd before you jump in there. Marshawn Lynch, forget it. No, he's not gonna do anything. Is decent replacement. They have Zaire Franklin, who had over 640 tackles in four years.

• 49:04Bill Simmons?

  The Bundo said he couldn't cover like literally anybody in the NFL in pass.

• 49:09Speaker 01

  The numbers are there.

• 49:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 49:10Speaker 01

  For tackles. The, you know, the other thing is, the NFL has a way of course correcting here. So they know Parsons is gonna be out two months, a month and a half, whatever it is. Three out of first four Falcons, Jets, and Vikings. So we could have a similar situation to the Lions, where this team is 4-1. They don't have to do a lot, you know? And he was concussed.

• 49:30Bill Simmons?

  I looked at that.

• 49:31Speaker 01

  Down the, down the stretch there, when they were like nine, four, and one. He was concussed like the last three weeks, Jordan Love.

• 49:39Bill Simmons?

  I think there's a real 0-2 chance for this team.

• 49:42Speaker 01

  Really?

• 49:43Bill Simmons?

  At Vikings, week one, at Jets, week two. Followed by 0-2, complete panic, should we fire LaFleur?

• 49:50Speaker 01

  Well, I'll go back to hating them if that's the case, because I'll have them win both those games.

• 49:54Bill Simmons?

  It's weird, this Vikings game in week one at Minnesota, I feel like is gonna determine the over-under.

• 50:01Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 50:02Bill Simmons?

  They win that, I think they get to 10. If they don't win that.

• 50:05Speaker 01

  I'm dying to know who your team is, and there's only two left in the division.

• 50:08Bill Simmons?

  Now, there's more. They added more NFC teams.

• 50:11Speaker 01

  Goodell, he's always up to something.

• 50:13Bill Simmons?

  So you're over 11 wins for them, huh?

• 50:15Speaker 01

  11 and 6, they're favored in 13 games, so.

• 50:17Bill Simmons?

  You've had a complicated Packers relationship.

• 50:20Speaker 02

  What do you mean?

• 50:21Bill Simmons?

  There's been years where you've like really loved them.

• 50:23Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah.

• 50:24Bill Simmons?

  We bet on them during the Super Bowl last year.

• 50:25Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah, during the season, they came out, the way they started off the season on both sides of the ball, they were incredible. They were definitely, I got some money down after they kicked Washington's ass in week two on Thursday night. They humiliated Washington. They were incredible on both sides of the ball. But the way the season ended, I feel like there's a hangover. You lose a playoff game the way that they did. When you manufacture a goddamn playoff loss the way that they did, you don't.

• 50:50Bill Simmons?

  And we all thought they were firing the coach after that.

• 50:52Speaker 02

  They should have, they should have.

• 50:54Bill Simmons?

  Can I give you one of my favorite theories?

• 50:56Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 50:58Bill Simmons?

  Social media clip waiting to happen. Can't wait for Eduardo. Put this thing on, Eduardo. Sports city cluster theory? Let me walk you into October.

• 51:10Bill Simmons?

  The Packers are 1-3, and everybody's panicking with the Bears game coming on October 11th. That feels make or break for them. Buck season about to start. Everybody's like, what the fuck did we get? This Yannis trade, this is terrible. Brewers, after a great season, just getting bounced.

• 51:28Speaker 02

  Oh, no.

• 51:29Bill Simmons?

  They didn't, they didn't even make it to October. So they're like, oh, my God, our Brewer season's already over. And now Packers must win game, and it's just like all colliding. And maybe there's just a blizzard that day in October for the first time ever in Wisconsin. My old college Drew Bate, Chip Kane, just sending me long, incoherent texts about how bad it is. But I just, I just, I think all this stuff might be.

• 51:54Speaker 01

  Interesting.

• 51:54Bill Simmons?

  Might be together.

• 51:55Speaker 01

  Badgers 2-7. All right.

• 51:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the Badgers are going bad.

• 51:59Speaker 01

  All right. I like them. I don't know what to say.

• 52:01Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 52:03Bill Simmons?

  Chicago Bears over nine and a half is the over-under. Heavy juice on the over, plus 115 on FanDuel. Division plus 340. Super Bowl 31. Playoffs, dead even, basically plus 116 for the playoffs. 12-plus wins, plus 360. Under seven-half, plus 210. They were 11 and 6 last year.

• 52:26Bill Simmons?

  People are just spooging regression all over this team. Regression, regression, regression, regression. That's it. Nobody can talk about the Bears rationally because

• 52:36Speaker 01

  That's your impression of me.

• 52:36Bill Simmons?

  The regression.

• 52:37Speaker 01

  Forty-five seconds.

• 52:38Bill Simmons?

  It's just regression, regression, regression, regression. Here's another stat. Here's another stat. They did this, they did this. Counter.

• 52:44Speaker 01

  Go ahead.

• 52:45Bill Simmons?

  I'm all in on Ben Johnson. I think he's 10 wins every year. I don't care what's going on with this team. And I look at it this way. So they go 11 and six last year. Make the playoffs, have a couple miraculous Caleb moments. They shouldn't have been a playoff team last year. Right? If they had just gone eight, nine, or seven and 10, but had a couple upsets and really showed like signs and it was like, oh, this year, here come the Bears. Watch out for these guys. And instead, they threw everyone off the scent because they had, they won like three or four weird games. I think this was supposed to be the Bears year. I'm over. I think they, I think they go 10 and seven. And I'm a fan.

• 53:28Speaker 01

  They didn't have a couple of comeback wins. They had six wins in the last two minutes where they were trailing.

• 53:34Bill Simmons?

  That should mean something, though.

• 53:35Speaker 01

  It does, it does. I don't want to get on quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Bo Nix, who came from behind and won. That's a clutch gene that you should be very happy. Everyone in the Indiana area should be very happy that their team had, I'm sorry, Chicago area that has the Bears to win. Caleb Williams, almost 4,000 yards, which is unheard of for any Bears quarterback. House thinks he's going to go over this year, right? Listen to the Ringer Wise Guys. That's one of his big, but that is regression like no other. Plus 22 turnover margin. Like that's, if you look at Warren Sharp, how he outlines this, no one who wins the turnover margin at the top is anywhere close in the second year. Add to it, they weren't really great in the non-turnover drives.

• 54:19Speaker 01

  So Caleb Williams, this is nice. I appreciate his stretch routine. He doesn't get his black fingernails, really, doesn't affect them at all when he's stretching. By the way, Antonio Brown had some choice words for him today.

• 54:31Bill Simmons?

  That was tough.

• 54:32Speaker 01

  Usually.

• 54:33Bill Simmons?

  Settle down, Antonio.

• 54:34Speaker 01

  Usually holds himself there. I don't know. I got over an eight and a half, but under nine and a half for the Bears. Have them at nine and eight.

• 54:43Bill Simmons?

  Nine and eight?

• 54:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 54:46Bill Simmons?

  So I have Chicago in this division and you have?

• 54:50Speaker 01

  Green Bay.

• 54:50Bill Simmons?

  Green Bay is basically where we, where we differed.

• 54:56Bill Simmons?

  I just think that last year was year one Ben Johnson. I feel the same way about Vrabel. Now you have the staff, you bring it over. Everybody's kind of learned the habits from last year. I think they have a lot of skill position talent, right? My big fear, if you're, if you're going to pick them apart, I mean, the regression rate obviously is a nightmare. But the left tackle, they have the worst left tackle in the league. Right? The defense is a little sketchy, but I do think they can win some shootouts. I had their roster at 24 points. I think Johnson's a top five QB. They had that net rest rank. They're number one, they're plus 15. It's the second highest for any team since 1990. According to your hero, Warren Sharp.

• 55:36Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 55:37Bill Simmons?

  Who told us that Shador Sanders 15-minute sideline interview was basically Frost Nixon.

• 55:43Speaker 01

  Listen, we steal enough of his stats, we should go.

• 55:45Bill Simmons?

  No, we do, no, we love Warren Sharp.

• 55:49Bill Simmons?

  At Vikings, week 18.

• 55:50Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 55:51Bill Simmons?

  It's interesting. They go Packers, Christmas, but that's home.

• 55:55Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 55:56Bill Simmons?

  Lions, home. At Vikings, week 18. And that's probably going to decide this, but.

• 56:01Speaker 01

  That's a lot.

• 56:03Bill Simmons?

  I'm, I'm zagging the other way against all of the regression crap. And I think the Bears are going to be, I think their offense is going to be top seven, top eight.

• 56:11Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 56:12Bill Simmons?

  I think they have an awesome coach and I just not betting against Ben Johnson.

• 56:16Speaker 01

  DJ Moore might have been, I mean, yeah.

• 56:18Bill Simmons?

  They could, they drove, DJ Moore was a drive him to the airport.

• 56:21Speaker 01

  He was at the airport?

• 56:22Bill Simmons?

  The entire fan base was ready to drive him to the airport. And I loved, I thought Loveland came on. Kraft looked like Gronk in the first eight games of the year, first four or whatever. And then Loveland down the stretch, he looked like he was the best tight end in the league. I just think they have a lot of weapons.

• 56:38Speaker 01

  There's a guy, I think people a little bit too in love with Luther Burden, who's like going to start out questionable.

• 56:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 56:44Speaker 01

  I just, you know, first place schedule now, sixth toughest schedule. You mentioned some of their, you know, Christmas, Green Bay, Thanksgiving, Detroit. To me, it's like, I really feel Ben Johnson's a good coach and he's going to, they're going to get better eventually. But he, he locked his door at the end of that season like, oh my God, that couldn't have gone better for me. Especially with the things that I had nothing to do with. I mean, if they have 16 fumbles and lose only four of them.

• 57:09Bill Simmons?

  I get it.

• 57:10Speaker 01

  That, that's.

• 57:11Bill Simmons?

  I get it. It's usually a red flag, but I wonder now if we're too obsessed with all of these things and it's, and we're just making, turning it into baseball with like,

• 57:18Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 57:19Bill Simmons?

  Oh, his on bases 300 and that just means this.

• 57:21Speaker 01

  Oh, listen, I, I am definitely.

• 57:23Bill Simmons?

  It's a pretty small sample size. 16 fumbles is not like 160. At Panthers, week one. Home Vikings, week two. I think they're 2-0 after that. And after that, I need to go eight and seven. I get 10 wins.

• 57:36Speaker 01

  They give the safety Kobe Bryant from Seattle a big deal. Tough, tougher Kobe.

• 57:41Bill Simmons?

  The secondary is a little.

• 57:42Speaker 01

  This is four months, 46 months.

• 57:44Bill Simmons?

  The secondary worries me. But they might not play somebody who throws the ball on them until.

• 57:49Speaker 01

  Right.

• 57:50Bill Simmons?

  Week seven.

• 57:50Speaker 01

  I'm not locking it in, but I just think it's going to be a little tougher.

• 57:53Bill Simmons?

  Last one's Minnesota. Their over is eight and a half. Plus 430 for the division. Super Bowl 41, playoffs, plus 140. If you want to get nuts and go for them for 11 plus wins, plus 240. They were nine and eight last year.

• 58:09Bill Simmons?

  And it's just bizarre to me that people, it seems like more people like the Vikings than the Bears.

• 58:15Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 58:16Bill Simmons?

  I just think that's abjectly insane. I don't get it at all. I did my player rankings. They had one guy on defense who got points, Ben Ginkgo, one. O'Connell gets points, Jefferson. The slightly above average offensive line might give them two points there, but this all comes down to Kyler Murray. And my what if for you is, what if Kyler Murray kind of sucks?

• 58:38Speaker 01

  Why wouldn't he? Why the hell wouldn't he?

• 58:40Bill Simmons?

  The Cardinals paid him to go away.

• 58:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 58:41Bill Simmons?

  And then it's like Kyler Murray, who knows? It's like, I thought we, we went through this already.

• 58:46Speaker 01

  He signed for 1.3 million dollars. Like half the Ringer employees are making that.

• 58:50Bill Simmons?

  Here's the thing. Had no other offers.

• 58:52Speaker 02

  Even kind of sucky Kyler Murray is better than what they had at quarterback last season. They had arguably the worst quarterback group. Carson Wentz played professional football for this team.

• 59:02Bill Simmons?

  And Brosmer.

• 59:03Speaker 02

  And Maxey Brosmer was out there, gave me.

• 59:06Bill Simmons?

  And Michigan hero, J.J. McCarthy.

• 59:08Speaker 01

  I know, he was terrible.

• 59:09Speaker 02

  That's the worst quarterback room.

• 59:11Speaker 01

  Okay, but if you put, you could analyze what metric you want in a quarterback. And I think his EPA is like right in the middle, like 16th or something.

• 59:17Bill Simmons?

  That's the thing. He's like an advanced, advanced stat. It's like, it's better than you think. It's like, okay, so I guess I didn't watch any Cardinal games my whole life.

• 59:25Speaker 01

  So he's right in the middle for, that's fine. He doesn't run at all. You're definitely not getting the 2021 version.

• 59:30Bill Simmons?

  Can't throw over the middle.

• 59:31Speaker 01

  Can't throw over the middle. He's not going to get the best out of Justin Jefferson if all the stats hold up.

• 59:36Bill Simmons?

  He's just a horrific fit for Justin Jefferson. Bad at throwing the deep ball.

• 59:40Speaker 01

  Downfield is 10%. He's like 31st out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in, in downfield. So what are you getting? You're getting a guy that hopefully won't hurt you, even though he did hurt the Cardinals many, many times we saw last year, so.

• 59:53Bill Simmons?

  Can I read you some stats? Remember the 2021 playoffs when they played the Rams?

• 59:57Speaker 01

  That was their only playoff game in like 15 years.

• 59:59Bill Simmons?

  I picked the Cardinals over the Rams and I think they lost like 44 to 10.

• 1:00:03Speaker 01

  Monday night game.

• 1:00:04Bill Simmons?

  And Kyler Murray completely fell apart.

• 1:00:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:00:06Bill Simmons?

  Since then, next season, three and eight as a starter. Year after that, three and five. Year after that, eight and nine. Year after that, two and three. He's 16 and 26 in his last 42 games. Like, we have this in basketball. I'm sure the advanced stats are favorable. This is fucking Zach Levine. This is Russell Westbrook in the 2020s. This is Bradley Beal on House's crappy Wizards teams. Like, I'm glad the advanced stats look good, but we all fucking watch the games and this guy's not a winning quarterback. And you can't tell me in this division.

• 1:00:39Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:00:39Bill Simmons?

  That you're going to win nine games with them. I don't believe it. I don't think their defense is good either. It's like Flores, Flores, Flores. It's like, no, they don't have enough talent.

• 1:00:48Speaker 01

  Blitz heavy Flores. They lose Hargrave, they lose Jonathan Allen, Jonathan Greenard gets traded. They're, you know, depending on this Caleb Banks, this defensive tackle who has like foot issues and stuff. They have a rough stretch I penciled in at Detroit, Buffalo, at Green Bay, at San Francisco. That's weeks eight through 11. I don't think that, I think we're making Max Brosmer jokes around Thanksgiving again.

• 1:01:10Bill Simmons?

  I honestly, I, it's weird because in basketball, it's the opposite. And people remember everything and hold everybody, every playoff game against everybody.

• 1:01:18Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:01:18Bill Simmons?

  And in football, we just get amnesia.

• 1:01:20Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:01:21Bill Simmons?

  Like, we're just looking forward and trying to figure out stuff and we just kind of forget what happened.

• 1:01:25Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:01:26Bill Simmons?

  Kyler Murray, the Cardinals not only did not, they're paying him, what, 40 million a year, 50 million a year? And paid him to go away.

• 1:01:33Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:01:34Bill Simmons?

  And then it's like, oh, I don't know. KOC, quarterback whisperer. He's the quarterback whisperer? He just had J.J. McCarthy, who was a complete piece of crap last year. He was terrible.

• 1:01:43Speaker 01

  He says he's elite, J.J. McCarthy. I don't know if we can go by that.

• 1:01:47Bill Simmons?

  You can't be the quarterback whisperer if your last quarterback that you drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft completely bombed.

• 1:01:54Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:01:55Bill Simmons?

  That means you're, you're whispering, but nobody's listening to the words.

• 1:01:58Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:01:59Bill Simmons?

  So I'm, I'm under.

• 1:02:00Speaker 01

  So you're way under. Is this a lock?

• 1:02:03Bill Simmons?

  I'm under.

• 1:02:04Speaker 01

  I have them at seven. So that's under, what's this number, eight and a half?

• 1:02:09Bill Simmons?

  The uh, number's eight and a half.

• 1:02:11Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:02:11Bill Simmons?

  I am under, um, I'm happy to lock it down if you want me to, but I, I.

• 1:02:16Speaker 01

  I'm not gonna force you.

• 1:02:17Bill Simmons?

  I'm, I, there's other stuff.

• 1:02:19Speaker 01

  Jamal Adams out. Yeah, I don't like this team at all.

• 1:02:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So we're both under.

• 1:02:23Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:02:23Bill Simmons?

  Nine and eight last year feels like they're a game where it's the only reason I'm not a lock for this is what House said. Their quarterbacks were so bad last year.

• 1:02:31Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:02:31Bill Simmons?

  Even if Murray can be just not a bottom 10 quarterback.

• 1:02:36Speaker 01

  It's impressive that they fought bad. They had to, they had to win what, their last five to go nine and eight? Like, I, I still really don't understand how they did it.

• 1:02:43Speaker 02

  I mean, that Detroit game, they kicked Detroit's ass. Detroit needed that game uh, to, to have any shot at making the playoffs.

• 1:02:50Bill Simmons?

  So they, they play the uh, they play the NFC South along with everyone else in this division. And they play the AFC East.

• 1:02:59Speaker 01

  That helps a little bit.

• 1:03:00Bill Simmons?

  And that means they get Dolphins, Jets.

• 1:03:02Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:03:03Bill Simmons?

  That means they get the three South teams.

• 1:03:05Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:03:06Bill Simmons?

  That's kind of maybe where you go with like how they could sneak to nine. It's just a great coaching performance.

• 1:03:12Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:03:13Bill Simmons?

  Um, Kyler Murray's history was always, Raheem talked about this on your NFC North pod, really good first two months of the season.

• 1:03:19Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:03:20Bill Simmons?

  Falls apart. Um, I just don't see it. I also don't think people even remember what Kyler Murray plays like.

• 1:03:26Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:03:27Bill Simmons?

  Like, they think of him as this scrambling, exciting guy. That guy's been gone for four years.

• 1:03:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, that whole, that whole, that session of his life, I don't think so. They're favored in eight games, so I think they go under, under that.

• 1:03:39Bill Simmons?

  It's a possible tank candidate too. I wanted to throw that out there. The under six and a half is plus 290.

• 1:03:44Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 1:03:45Bill Simmons?

  But like, if it's just not going well in November, do you just? Or do you throw McCarthy back in? Do you see what you have there?

• 1:03:52Speaker 02

  Well, we saw it last year. They won their last five games. That's how they got to nine wins. They, they were a tank candidate last year. That's, that's not in the DNA.

• 1:03:59Speaker 01

  He's a sneaky first coach fire too, Kevin O'Connell.

• 1:04:02Bill Simmons?

  I totally agree.

• 1:04:03Speaker 01

  I don't put him top three, but he could, you know, they get off to a slow start and that middle of the schedule is rough.

• 1:04:09Bill Simmons?

  Cause he could do the whole thing of, guys keep giving me these quarterbacks, like, why didn't we keep saying Darnold? You fired the GM that made a lot of these decisions.

• 1:04:18Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:04:19Bill Simmons?

  Like, maybe look in the fucking mirror. All right. Uh, NFC North, you have 90 seconds, House.

• 1:04:25Speaker 02

  Yeah, so this division, uh, every team finished with a winning record last season. I think we're gonna see the exact same thing this upcoming season. I'm slightly more bullish.

• 1:04:33Bill Simmons?

  You're going nine plus wins on every?

• 1:04:35Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:04:36Bill Simmons?

  I wonder if we get Fanduel to do that as a parlay?

• 1:04:38Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:04:39Bill Simmons?

  Every team in the NFC North will win nine games. I wonder.

• 1:04:42Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm, uh.

• 1:04:43Speaker 02

  I'm slightly more positive on Minnesota than you guys are. Um, the fact is, what we've been talking about, there's a floor to the number of wins out of this division because of who they play. They, every, every team should have sort of built in six wins. So when you talk about Minnesota, six wins because they get the Dolphins and they get the Jets and they get the NFC South. And then like a team like Minnesota, they have Washington on their schedule towards the end of the season. Like, you can go through and find six wins for every one.

• 1:05:11Speaker 01

  You're winning that game, House.

• 1:05:12Speaker 02

  And then you're pushing up. So if you're starting from a six-win floor, getting to, to, to nine wins is not that, that difficult. And we have good positive cases for all of these teams in terms of the skill, even if, you know, that, that Bears defense take a step, step back and this Vikings defense isn't gonna be as good. Um, I still think that we're gonna get to nine for every one of the teams.

• 1:05:32Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:05:33Bill Simmons?

  I think this is my number one pick for a division that will have a tie that will fuck with all of this.

• 1:05:38Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah. Well, they had one last year.

• 1:05:40Bill Simmons?

  Vikings go like eight, eight and one, and, but they also knocked down the Packers and the Packers are nine, seven and one.

• 1:05:47Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:05:47Bill Simmons?

  But yeah, I, I'm predicting that thing. All right, so your division winner is who?

• 1:05:51Speaker 01

  Green Bay Packers, 11 and 6.

• 1:05:54Bill Simmons?

  I'm really surprised by this.

• 1:05:55Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:05:56Bill Simmons?

  I have the Lions at 11 and 6. So you, you think the Packers, what were the odds on that? That is plus 260. You like for that?

• 1:06:08Speaker 01

  Like that?

• 1:06:08Bill Simmons?

  I have the Lions at plus 160. I can't remember a division in a while that had the, the favorite was plus 160.

• 1:06:16Speaker 01

  What do you mean?

• 1:06:16Bill Simmons?

  It's pretty high. Like, those are the, that's the best odds, plus 160 out of 14?

• 1:06:21Speaker 01

  You can't remember? Your Patriots did it forever, the Bills even before the Patriots got there?

• 1:06:25Bill Simmons?

  Usually at least somebody is like minus 110 or plus.

• 1:06:28Speaker 01

  Oh, I see. Yeah, you think that's too, uh, plus, yeah, it shouldn't be a plus.

• 1:06:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we're all between like plus 160 and three to one. Okay. That's it for the NFC North. Quite a division. I think the most action-packed, most arguments. I think it's the most fun to do the uh, do the place finishes. You can go in any direction. I would probably go, um, Lions, Bears.

• 1:06:49Speaker 01

  This is tough.

• 1:06:50Bill Simmons?

  Packers, Vikes would be my four.

• 1:06:52Speaker 01

  I would let you pick four division orders. I'll book them all, cause I think it's that, that hard.

• 1:07:01Bill Simmons?

  Make it all your buffet.

• 1:07:03Speaker 01

  There you go.

• 1:07:03Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:07:05Speaker 03

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• 1:07:59Bill Simmons?

  All right, NFC South, the bane of our existence. Just has brought us, whatever the opposite of joy is, unhappiness, despair.

• 1:08:08Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:08:09Bill Simmons?

  Disbelief, year after year, and on pace again. We talked about how, uh, you could go over nine on all four NFC North teams. You could go under nine on all four of the NFC South teams and tuck yourself into it. First one is Tampa, over eight and a half. Plus 175 for the division, plus 140 for the playoffs. 10 plus wins is plus 175 as well. 11 plus wins, plus 340.

• 1:08:38Bill Simmons?

  Keep that in your back pocket. Um, they were eight and nine last year.

• 1:08:43Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 1:08:44Bill Simmons?

  In a year where I would argue most things went wrong. Baker Mayfield had seven injuries. They lost their left tackle. Wide receiver injuries across the board. Mike Evans got hurt at the worst possible time, came back.

• 1:08:57Bill Simmons?

  It was just a mess. Defense was weird, weird season. Felt like Bowles was gonna get fired. They really collapsed.

• 1:09:02Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:09:03Bill Simmons?

  Didn't fire Bowles. What if they fired Todd Bowles eight months ago? Would you feel better about this team?

• 1:09:09Speaker 01

  Wow. Well, can I backtrack a little?

• 1:09:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:09:12Speaker 01

  Because I have a little NFC South preamble here.

• 1:09:14Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:09:14Speaker 01

  And I'm gonna blow my, blow my wad on the whole division. First of all, I, it's despicable and I hate it. And I hate that we have to do futures for it because I don't wanna have a bet on, case in point, last year, Bucks should've won a division.

• 1:09:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:09:27Speaker 01

  I don't know how they did. Carolina backed into a division title, losing week 18 somehow and getting to eight and nine.

• 1:09:35Bill Simmons?

  And then Raheem bragged about it, how he had Carolina, but meanwhile he had 19 other bets over the course of the year.

• 1:09:39Speaker 01

  Stolen laps for this Carolina win. Ridiculous. This NFC South is, they should call it the NFC DMV. Because it's, it's, it is the DMV. It's visiting the DMV, watching these games. It's tedious.

• 1:09:53Bill Simmons?

  What does that do for your DMV, House?

• 1:09:55Speaker 01

  It's.

• 1:09:55Speaker 02

  The different DMV.

• 1:09:56Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:09:57Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah, no, yeah. The, the one where you have to wait in line. Tedious, inefficient, it stinks like piss. It's, this is the NFC DMV. And why do we have to knock ourselves out trying to pick a winner when they don't even wanna win? Outside of the division, they win 35% of their games over the last five years.

• 1:10:15Bill Simmons?

  I saw that.

• 1:10:15Speaker 01

  And I have to.

• 1:10:16Bill Simmons?

  It's by far the worst, right?

• 1:10:17Speaker 01

  The three of us have to pick a team to friggin' win eight or nine or god forbid 10 games? I have all four teams at seven and 10. And god bless me, I figured out a way and it wasn't that hard to do. I did it game by game by game. So let's talk. I mean, there is many, many reasons to not give any of these teams more than seven wins or less than five. So you wanna start with Tampa Bay?

• 1:10:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, let's start with Tampa.

• 1:10:41Speaker 01

  All right. I think they're, first of all, maybe I'm a little harsh on them because they did win the division four years in a row before this. And Baker had, you talked about that, it was injuries, bicep, shoulder, oblique. This is why they won't give him the extension.

• 1:10:54Bill Simmons?

  We were talking about it for MVP on our Sunday night pods for three weeks in a row, and then by the end of the year, he was, body parts were falling off.

• 1:11:01Speaker 01

  I loved it. People kept them out of their top 12, like quarterback rankings. I said, this is despicable. What are we doing? They have a new OC in Zach Robinson. That's a fifth OC in as many years. Like you said, they lose Mike Evans. Uh, I think it's a little better with Kenneth Gainwell, right? Bucky Irving missed some time. I still like that offense, that Ruben Bain's a stud of, for Miami. He's a little banged up to start the year. They get Vita, Vita Vea who threatened to hold out. They're favored in nine games, but I still give them seven wins. Like, they were 0-6 against the AFC North under Todd Bowles and that's.

• 1:11:35Bill Simmons?

  You didn't mention they lost Mike Evans.

• 1:11:37Speaker 01

  And Mike Evans, yeah. So that's, I don't know.

• 1:11:40Bill Simmons?

  I don't love the, I don't love the cornerbacks on this team and I'm not a Todd Bowles guy. But Gainwell, I thought, was awesome last year for the Steelers. Their front seven, they nailed the draft. I think they, if, if I gave points in my player rankings for drafts, Bain is like, that, that was a miracle he felt of them. Their front seven's gonna be really good. Like, it's gonna be get after the passer, kinda dangerous good. And this, this Ted Hurst they took, um, is a receiver in the draft who seems like he's actually gonna play. And I liked their receivers before that. I like Tez Johnson. I thought he had some moments last year. Like Buca who got hurt halfway through the year.

• 1:12:19Speaker 01

  He was my offense rookie of the year.

• 1:12:20Bill Simmons?

  I think they have firepower all over the place. I had their offensive line for six points.

• 1:12:24Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:12:25Bill Simmons?

  I had them as a top three offensive line. So they have that, uh, the running game with Irving and Gainwell together. Uh, there's guys I like on the defense. I had four guys on the defense with them. They, the problem is, they play some good QBs. Lamar Burrow, Caleb Love, Goff, Dak, Stafford, Herbert. They also play some horrible QBs.

• 1:12:44Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:12:44Bill Simmons?

  Two Atlanta games, Brissette, a Cleveland game, Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young twice, Shuck twice.

• 1:12:54Bill Simmons?

  I'm all in.

• 1:12:55Speaker 01

  Really?

• 1:12:56Bill Simmons?

  Not only do I have them over, over eight and a half.

• 1:12:59Speaker 01

  Don't be all in on any of these teams. Kidding me?

• 1:13:02Bill Simmons?

  Over eight and a half. I'm making it a lock.

• 1:13:06Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:13:06Bill Simmons?

  I think they can go 11 and 6. I have them 11 plus wins is plus 340. I think this team is actually going to be good. I'm in on the Bucks. I think they nailed their draft and I think they're going to be healthy and they're in a shitty division.

• 1:13:20Speaker 01

  You are a glutton.

• 1:13:21Bill Simmons?

  I know.

• 1:13:21Speaker 01

  A glutton for punishment.

• 1:13:23Bill Simmons?

  I broke the news to House this morning. And guess what? We started debating bets.

• 1:13:29Speaker 02

  We started going through it.

• 1:13:31Speaker 01

  They're the best team in the division, but it doesn't mean they have to win any more than seven games because they're the toughest three hour watch in all of football. They're four and 12 in primetime games. I think they're one under bowls. They're one and nine since Baker got there. It's despicable. Their red zone defense, the red zone defense is just awful. Anyone gets to the 10, just don't even run another play. You're in.

• 1:13:53Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. I think their front seven is going to be good. I think they're going to be good. Also, um, here's another thing. This is how much thought I've put into Tampa. So at Bengals week one, we'll talk about Bengals and AFC, but you can probably guess I'm zagging on them. Next three games, all at home in September, Browns, Vikings, Packers. Let me, let me walk you through your memories of what happens in Florida in September. It's fucking hot.

• 1:14:22Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:14:22Bill Simmons?

  This is like Lombardi. I always used to talk about this, these games in Carolina or Tampa in the first three or four weeks of the season, where it's like 95 degrees on a Sunday or it's 80 with like a ton of humidity. The Browns, they get the last Deshaun Watson game ever. That's a win. Kyler Murray the next week and then the Packers. I, I actually think they could be 4-0 heading into week five against your Cowboys on a Thursday night.

• 1:14:46Speaker 01

  Talk to me about December. That's when they lose their games.

• 1:14:48Bill Simmons?

  That's fine.

• 1:14:49Speaker 01

  That's when they blow all their games. So.

• 1:14:51Bill Simmons?

  That's cool. Well, that they do, and I, we're going to talk about the Falcons in a second. I think the Falcons are going to be bad. So that's two wins there, but uh, I'm in. I really like this Tampa team.

• 1:15:02Speaker 01

  They bit me hard last year.

• 1:15:03Bill Simmons?

  I get it.

• 1:15:04Speaker 01

  What was that Thursday night against Atlanta?

• 1:15:06Bill Simmons?

  If you could give yourself amnesia for last year.

• 1:15:08Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:15:09Bill Simmons?

  I feel like you'd feel better about Tampa.

• 1:15:10Speaker 01

  They're the best team. They have the best roster.

• 1:15:12Bill Simmons?

  They definitely are better than they were last year.

• 1:15:14Speaker 01

  Yeah, sure.

• 1:15:15Bill Simmons?

  So the question for me is, is Baker, is he just a guy who gets hurt every year?

• 1:15:20Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:15:20Bill Simmons?

  He's had a lot of injuries. He's been banged up a few different times.

• 1:15:23Speaker 01

  Who was it? Back up? Jake Browning?

• 1:15:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:25Speaker 01

  I'm looking, they have the Kansas quarterback, oh, Jalen Daniels is.

• 1:15:29Bill Simmons?

  They have Wurf's back. Everybody glosses over that. Like we just made a big deal about Tunsil and Washington. Wurf's is one of the best left tackles in the league. They didn't have him last year.

• 1:15:38Speaker 01

  That's true.

• 1:15:38Bill Simmons?

  Saints over seven and a half, plus 270 for the division. Plus 198 if you like them for the playoffs. Under five and a half wins, plus 250. They were six and 11 last year.

• 1:15:50Bill Simmons?

  What if they played Shuck all last season? Do they win the division? I, we all love Shuck.

• 1:15:56Speaker 01

  Yeah. Well, were they six and 11 you said last year? Yeah. Uh, could they go eight and nine to win the division? Yes. I think that's the answer. I was going to pencil them in for eight wins, but then I thought seven and 10 for everyone is funnier. And also not great off season, right? We got, you know, Kamara's banged up, Olave already something.

• 1:16:15Bill Simmons?

  They paid, they paid for ETN.

• 1:16:16Speaker 01

  Right. At the end, I don't know if he's a $48 million running back, but an improvement.

• 1:16:20Bill Simmons?

  10th in our league in fantasy points last year.

• 1:16:23Speaker 01

  Yeah. Jordan Tyson, that's not good. The wide receiver for Arizona State.

• 1:16:26Bill Simmons?

  Hated that pick.

• 1:16:27Speaker 01

  No good. Yeah.

• 1:16:28Bill Simmons?

  It's so funny when they take these receivers who couldn't stay healthy in college. And they take them eight. The Saints did in this case, but these guys are top 10 picks and the draft guys are like, if he could stay healthy, it's like, well, we have a whole track record. He can't. Then he gets to the training camp. Guess what? He gets, he gets hurt.

• 1:16:46Speaker 01

  Right. Right.

• 1:16:47Bill Simmons?

  Was anyone shocked to see that Jordan Tyson is hurt? This guy? I think this could be his whole career.

• 1:16:51Speaker 01

  He was fun to watch when he was on the field.

• 1:16:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. He had like two, two of those uh, training camp things where I'm losing my voice.

• 1:16:57Speaker 01

  Getting emotional. Yeah.

• 1:16:58Bill Simmons?

  I'm really upset about Jordan Tyson. But he had like two training camp moments where people like, oh my God, whoa, look at this guy. Got hurt.

• 1:17:05Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:17:07Bill Simmons?

  I just want to say, because I have no other platform to do this other than probably this podcast. I love Deshaun Bailey. He was my favorite random receiver last year. I had him in fantasy. And he was like a god and then he got hurt, but he was like, I just keep an eye on him. Ken Tyson or Lavez stay healthy is a big question mark with this team. My, my guess would be probably not.

• 1:17:30Bill Simmons?

  Brandon Staley is still the DC. They just, they have no blue chippers on D at all. It's basically Chase Young's resuscitated body and that's it.

• 1:17:39Speaker 01

  Yeah. I mean, he had 10 sacks in 12 games last year. I just, the, the, the trade off that was tough for me to reconcile is number three dead cap money, which doesn't, that's really tough to hold, okay? Versus number two easiest schedule. So.

• 1:17:53Bill Simmons?

  And they have nine home games instead of eight.

• 1:17:56Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:17:56Bill Simmons?

  So nine in the Superdome.

• 1:17:58Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:17:59Bill Simmons?

  Falcons, who they, who I think are going to stink. They play uh, so they're at Lions, at Ravens first two. So they're going to be 0-2.

• 1:18:07Speaker 01

  This is, we've moved on to the Falcons?

• 1:18:09Bill Simmons?

  No, no, this is the Saints.

• 1:18:10Speaker 02

  He's going through the schedule.

• 1:18:11Speaker 01

  Oh, I'm sorry.

• 1:18:12Bill Simmons?

  Raiders week three, Falcons week four.

• 1:18:14Speaker 01

  House, you'll let me know what he's doing at all times, right?

• 1:18:16Bill Simmons?

  I'm just giving you the Saints.

• 1:18:17Speaker 01

  I got you. Good. Yeah.

• 1:18:18Bill Simmons?

  Week four Falcons is the Hurricane Katrina anniversary game. They're not losing that.

• 1:18:22Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:18:23Bill Simmons?

  Vikings week five, at Giants week six.

• 1:18:29Bill Simmons?

  That just feels like three and three. Right? So at that point, the over under is seven and a half.

• 1:18:37Bill Simmons?

  Can I go five and six the rest of the way?

• 1:18:40Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:18:41Bill Simmons?

  With the Saints? Shuck worries me because of uh, he just took huge hits last year. He's like a little Jackson Darty-ish, less blue tent, but just completely fearless. I didn't even know who their backup is.

• 1:18:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think it's, I wonder if we're giving him too much credit because he went like 15 and two on teasers for us. But he's like 30th in the red zone. Oh, he's rookie. You know, it's hard.

• 1:19:05Bill Simmons?

  I'm changing my pick. I had them as an over eight and a half.

• 1:19:08Speaker 01

  No, you can't change.

• 1:19:09Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm doing it. I'm doing unders.

• 1:19:11Speaker 01

  Really?

• 1:19:12Bill Simmons?

  I have them at seven wins, exactly seven and 10.

• 1:19:14Speaker 02

  So that's under.

• 1:19:14Speaker 01

  That's it.

• 1:19:15Bill Simmons?

  That's under.

• 1:19:15Speaker 01

  Seven and 10.

• 1:19:16Bill Simmons?

  I can't go eight.

• 1:19:16Speaker 01

  Keep everyone at seven and 10.

• 1:19:18Bill Simmons?

  Shuck's probably going to get hurt.

• 1:19:19Speaker 01

  It's the easiest thing to do. Everyone's at seven and 10.

• 1:19:22Speaker 02

  Crazy thing with the Saints. Their home schedule is incredible. They only play uh, one team with a win total forecasted to be better than eight and a half. They play, you know, Minnesota's sitting right there at eight and a half and Green Bay is at nine and a half.

• 1:19:39Bill Simmons?

  They played Tua or Penix twice. Brissette, Deshaun or Sanders. Dart or his backup. Kyler Murray, Cousins or Mendoza, Rogers and Bryce Young twice.

• 1:19:51Speaker 01

  Not bad.

• 1:19:52Bill Simmons?

  I'm changing my pick back.

• 1:19:53Speaker 01

  What?

• 1:19:53Bill Simmons?

  I'm going over.

• 1:19:54Speaker 01

  Oh my God.

• 1:19:55Bill Simmons?

  Over eight and a half.

• 1:19:55Speaker 01

  I'm glad we didn't go on to the Falcons.

• 1:19:57Speaker 02

  What the hell's going on here?

• 1:19:57Bill Simmons?

  Back over. Yeah.

• 1:19:58Speaker 02

  Lord have mercy.

• 1:20:00Bill Simmons?

  I changed my pick back.

• 1:20:01Speaker 01

  If I tell you the backups, I tell you when the backups are, you might change again. Spencer Rattler, Zach Wilson.

• 1:20:06Speaker 02

  Spencer Rattler's still there.

• 1:20:07Speaker 01

  Change, back under, go back under now.

• 1:20:11Bill Simmons?

  Can I pick, can I pick the seven and a half exactly? What is, what are the odds for seven, nine and one?

• 1:20:15Speaker 01

  You said there'll be a tie. Doesn't count.

• 1:20:17Bill Simmons?

  See, this is, but this is the thing. The end of the season when we're, when it's like, we're doing the total. It's like, oh my God, I had the Saints over.

• 1:20:24Speaker 01

  I hate this.

• 1:20:25Bill Simmons?

  House, I almost might let you make the pick for me here. Are you over on them?

• 1:20:30Speaker 01

  House can't remember.

• 1:20:31Speaker 02

  We haven't done uh, NFC South yet.

• 1:20:33Speaker 01

  Monday.

• 1:20:34Bill Simmons?

  Well, do it now.

• 1:20:35Speaker 02

  Okay. I'm under. I, I like them at seven and 10.

• 1:20:39Bill Simmons?

  Seven and 10.

• 1:20:41Speaker 02

  It's just too much open question with the defense. I'm not, I'm not there.

• 1:20:45Bill Simmons?

  Defense is bad.

• 1:20:45Speaker 01

  One more thing, and I meant to give this to you before you went on with the fantasy fellows there. Taysom Hill retired.

• 1:20:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's probably, that's a win.

• 1:20:54Speaker 02

  Porcelain.

• 1:20:54Bill Simmons?

  That'll be the, the extra win they don't get.

• 1:20:56Speaker 01

  Okay. But fantasy Hall of Famer, like really like.

• 1:21:00Bill Simmons?

  I think so.

• 1:21:01Speaker 02

  Incredible.

• 1:21:02Speaker 01

  Most added drop player ever, you think?

• 1:21:04Bill Simmons?

  More conversations about his eligibility than maybe every player.

• 1:21:07Speaker 02

  Tight end, Taysom Hill.

• 1:21:09Speaker 01

  More fights.

• 1:21:09Bill Simmons?

  I feel like he swung, he swung weeks.

• 1:21:11Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:21:12Bill Simmons?

  There was playoff games that he felt like.

• 1:21:14Speaker 01

  Right. True fantasy Hall of Famer.

• 1:21:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. All right. Atlanta Falcons, the over under seven and a half, plus 290 for the division. Under five and a half wins is plus 220. Last year they were eight and nine.

• 1:21:33Bill Simmons?

  My what if for you is what if this is actually somehow a worse QB situation than Cleveland?

• 1:21:39Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:21:40Bill Simmons?

  What if this is our number one worst QB situation? Cause here's the situation. Tua, who got paid to go away by Miami, cause he literally can't play football anymore.

• 1:21:48Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:21:49Bill Simmons?

  Competing against Michael Pennix on his third torn ACL, who hasn't even really started scrimmaging until this week. And Tua couldn't win the job. He was competing against nobody. It was like he was playing tennis against a big backboard and couldn't beat the backboard.

• 1:22:05Bill Simmons?

  I don't, House asked this today, why didn't they just keep Cousins? Who they're paying anyway.

• 1:22:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:22:10Bill Simmons?

  Why not just keep Cousins instead of like, oh, we can get Tua for one million? Yeah, cause he sucks.

• 1:22:16Bill Simmons?

  This is gonna completely ruin them. I'll give you some Michael Pennix stats. Four and eight as a starter career. 12 TD, six INT.

• 1:22:26Bill Simmons?

  22 for 80 rushing, might be the least athletic quarterback in the league.

• 1:22:30Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:22:30Bill Simmons?

  And has a bad knee.

• 1:22:32Speaker 01

  And they're dying for him to get back. Like Stefanski's like, you're ready.

• 1:22:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:22:36Speaker 01

  I don't care.

• 1:22:37Bill Simmons?

  Can you play crutches?

• 1:22:38Speaker 01

  That's it.

• 1:22:40Bill Simmons?

  Stefanski is basically the only thing that's good about what they did. Here's what's bad, the QB situation. They took Pierce and Walker, their two big first round picks a year ago, pass rushers. We're gonna have speed on the edge. We're gonna be a different Falcons team.

• 1:22:57Speaker 01

  Pierce was stupid, dumb.

• 1:22:58Bill Simmons?

  Well, he's, Pierce is out for the year, tore his ACL. Walker got suspended through week eight. Those guys are gone. They lost all the other guys that they had. They have the worst front seven in the league. They have no wide receiver past Drake London. Their offensive line, which was always top five, is now no longer top 15. I think this team's a dumpster fire. This is, I have them going four and 13 this year. This is my biggest lock out of all the over unders. I Falcons, I couldn't be, it's a fully erect.

• 1:23:31Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:23:32Speaker 02

  Another one.

• 1:23:33Bill Simmons?

  Sorry, Farah.

• 1:23:33Speaker 02

  Poor Farah.

• 1:23:34Bill Simmons?

  I, I just can't believe how bad, I like, I can't believe it's seven and a half. I think it should be five and a half, like, how do they have? Not, don't have the worst thing in, other than the Cardinals in the NFC?

• 1:23:46Speaker 01

  Cause it's the NFC South. They can't put anybody that low because they're, these are, there's wins all over the place. They could be the dumpster fire and still go three and three in the division. I agree with you.

• 1:23:57Bill Simmons?

  Also, their schedule is weirdly hard. Here's who they play for quarterbacks. Love, Lamar, Burrow, Caleb, Purdy, Mahomes, Goff, Daniels, Baker twice. With a shitty defense, they're gonna go to at Steelers week one. I'm betting the Steelers now, I'm just telling you. Home Panthers, at Packers, at Saints. Home Ravens, home Bears, home 49ers, at Bucks.

• 1:24:18Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:24:19Bill Simmons?

  And they're playing the Bengals in week nine in Madrid. They might be 0 and 8.

• 1:24:23Speaker 01

  Interesting. It gets easier towards the end, I think December, it's their Cleveland, Washington, Tampa, New Orleans and Carolina. They have the division games and, and plus Cleveland and Washington.

• 1:24:31Bill Simmons?

  Week 10 Chiefs, they might be 0 and 10 heading into their bye week. I think they're gonna be awful.

• 1:24:34Speaker 01

  Look, it's, this is tough for Stefanski, right? Two, two time coach of the year.

• 1:24:38Bill Simmons?

  That's the other thing, it's like, oh, Stefanski, Stefanski was terrible last year. We were complaining about him the whole year. The Browns blew these games last year.

• 1:24:46Speaker 02

  I don't think he was terrible.

• 1:24:47Bill Simmons?

  He was a classic, are we sure he's good? Coach last year.

• 1:24:50Speaker 01

  I mean, his best win was when he was coaching from home with COVID. When they beat the Steelers in the playoffs. But he also has these like shiny toys on the top shelf that I don't think either of the quarterbacks could reach with Bijon Robinson. And even Kyle Pitts like broke out a little bit. And obviously Drake London, so.

• 1:25:09Bill Simmons?

  Kyle Pitts broke out a little bit, just enough to get him a contract.

• 1:25:12Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 1:25:13Bill Simmons?

  That now he's gonna go back to being Kyle Pitts.

• 1:25:15Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:25:16Bill Simmons?

  House, can you name a single receiver other than Drake London on the Falcons?

• 1:25:19Speaker 02

  No, cause I, I knew Darnell Mooney was on the team for a little while, but he plays for the Giants now.

• 1:25:22Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:23Speaker 01

  It's like Dotson or something, right? Ned Zachariah, Zacharias.

• 1:25:27Bill Simmons?

  Drake London, just double team him.

• 1:25:29Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:25:30Bill Simmons?

  He probably doesn't even make it through the year. I, I just, I don't see any.

• 1:25:34Speaker 01

  Georgia receiver they like, but.

• 1:25:36Bill Simmons?

  Also, here's another thing. Not only they're gonna suck, week three, Thursday night football, week four, Monday night football, Saints. Week five, Sunday night football, Ravens. Why are they giving us the Falcons at night games?

• 1:25:47Speaker 01

  That's stupid.

• 1:25:48Bill Simmons?

  Fucking consult anybody in this.

• 1:25:50Speaker 02

  Of all that Bijon, Bijon gave us, that's the most fascinating thing for fantasy. Where does Bijon go this upcoming season?

• 1:25:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, not on my team.

• 1:25:57Speaker 02

  I agree, not on my team.

• 1:25:58Speaker 01

  You have number, you have number three tomorrow. You're not gonna take Bijon either? Is that right?

• 1:26:02Bill Simmons?

  I don't want anybody in the Falcons.

• 1:26:04Speaker 01

  All right.

• 1:26:05Bill Simmons?

  So you just have blind seven and 10?

• 1:26:07Speaker 01

  It's fine. Seven, seven is under, right? It's under seven and a half, so. I'll go under.

• 1:26:12Bill Simmons?

  Wow, violent, violent.

• 1:26:14Speaker 02

  Jahan Dotson is on this team. Olamide is a case. This is the fifth string wide receivers from Washington.

• 1:26:19Bill Simmons?

  They have all these dudes that.

• 1:26:20Speaker 02

  I've seen both of these guys.

• 1:26:21Bill Simmons?

  They.

• 1:26:21Speaker 01

  They did a nice thing. They drafted the brother, the, the Terrell brothers or cornerbacks. This is fun, it's fun to watch.

• 1:26:28Bill Simmons?

  They're gonna stink. I feel the strongest about this, about any NFC team. Last one, Carolina, over six and a half. Division plus 340. So if you think the NFC South is gonna, everybody's gonna suck again, may as well grab the plus 340 from Carolina. Plus 245 for the playoffs, don't do that. Worst record is 15 to one, Super Bowl is 80 to one.

• 1:26:50Bill Simmons?

  The what if for them, Sal, is what if they've had too many injuries already and this is shaping up as a bad juju season? They've already lost both tackles, who I think will come back, maybe October. They lost their third receiver, they lost Nick Swarden. Who they paid money for. And it's just, it, this felt like the team when training camp starts and it's like, uh oh, this happened. Uh oh, this happened.

• 1:27:15Speaker 01

  They weren't good, it's fine, you could say it. They weren't good. They had a, what, the minus 69 point differential for a division winner? By the way, what's their, can you imagine they're a division winner, not many changes? They're over and under six and a half. It's cause they were disgusting. They were seven and three in one score games. They have the third toughest strength of schedule this year.

• 1:27:35Bill Simmons?

  They don't know what to do with Bryce, they didn't even give him an extension or anything.

• 1:27:38Speaker 01

  Right, if, if, if anyone needed a 50 year guarantee to, to check out, to see if he's good. And I don't think that he is, he's 31st in EPA. What do you need to see? You know, I have them seven and 10, but I felt like they're as lucky as you could get, as a team was, so.

• 1:27:54Bill Simmons?

  So I had them at seven and 10 as well because

• 1:27:58Bill Simmons?

  I really liked the Rams playoff game they played. I thought they had a couple of games last year where they threw some punches.

• 1:28:06Speaker 01

  We watched that at Chick's.

• 1:28:07Bill Simmons?

  They threw some punches against good teams.

• 1:28:11Bill Simmons?

  We also, House and I sat next to Jalen Coker.

• 1:28:15Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:28:15Bill Simmons?

  At the Bob Cousy game.

• 1:28:17Speaker 02

  Love Jalen Coker.

• 1:28:17Bill Simmons?

  And he was talking about how he was really mad. He felt like they could have beaten the Rams. And he wasn't like saying it, like he was serious.

• 1:28:23Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:28:25Bill Simmons?

  So I, I'm slight over for this.

• 1:28:26Speaker 01

  You talk about three, three, we have to watch them three prime time games too. Two on the road at Philly and at Green Bay.

• 1:28:32Bill Simmons?

  I wrote about this once, back when my fingers worked, like 20 years ago. The backhanded compliment scale for starting QBs.

• 1:28:41Bill Simmons?

  From one to 10. 1.0 is shrugging helplessly. I think that's Cleveland and maybe Atlanta this year.

• 1:28:47Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:28:48Bill Simmons?

  2.0 is, I mean, he's not a train wreck or anything. 3.0 is you could do worse. 4.0 is you could definitely do worse. 5.0 is, I'll tell you, he's not bad.

• 1:29:00Bill Simmons?

  6.0 is, throws a good deep ball, we'll say that. 7.0 is, say what you want about the guy, but he makes plays. Baker Mayfield. 8.0, it's not pretty, but he's pretty effective. Number 9.0 is, you could make the playoffs with this guy. And 10.0 is, look, if the Ravens can win a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer, dot, dot, dot.

• 1:29:24Speaker 01

  Hit it, Paul.

• 1:29:25Bill Simmons?

  My question for you is, where's Bryce Young in this? Is he, is he a you could do worse or is he you could definitely do worse?

• 1:29:32Speaker 01

  He's an 11.0, when the hell do we see Kenny Pickett? I would add one too.

• 1:29:37Bill Simmons?

  You're at shrugging helplessly for Bryce Young.

• 1:29:38Speaker 01

  Look, again, very lucky, give him seven wins, let him fight it out, week 18 with everyone else. I know, I'm no fun with this division, I'm sorry, but you're not gonna convince me to bet a future on it.

• 1:29:50Bill Simmons?

  Better and worse, year two of McMillan

• 1:29:54Bill Simmons?

  is probably the one better. They have some, they had five guys on their defense that got points for me. Brown Phillips, Horan Jackson and Moore. They have a great punter, Blackshear. Good, pretty good special teams in general.

• 1:30:06Speaker 01

  Good for him.

• 1:30:06Bill Simmons?

  So that feels like they'll steal a winner too. I, I like, I wouldn't do it as a lock, but I got a lock for them.

• 1:30:11Speaker 01

  I like their, their second round pick, this guy, Lee Hunter is from Texas Tech. They call him the fridge. I'm excited to see him.

• 1:30:18Speaker 02

  The fridge, the second fridge? Can't be the fridge, we had a fridge.

• 1:30:21Bill Simmons?

  House hasn't eaten today, he's just been.

• 1:30:22Speaker 01

  No, I'm sorry, House.

• 1:30:23Speaker 02

  We were talking.

• 1:30:24Bill Simmons?

  90 seconds on the NFC South.

• 1:30:25Speaker 01

  Shouldn't have done that.

• 1:30:26Speaker 02

  I would advise everyone, if you like the way that these guys have been talking, to get on the FanDuel Sportsbook where you can play division exact order. If you believe that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are gonna finish first and the Atlanta Falcons are gonna finish last, you just swap Carolina and New Orleans in the two, three position. Both ways are better than 10 to one odds. That's a nice way to make some money for America. Better than 10 to one. Atlanta first, I mean Tampa first, Atlanta last. Bet both ways, Carolina and, and New Orleans. I'm trying to help America here.

• 1:31:01Speaker 01

  I am sooner able to figure out the equation on the blackboard and Good Will Hunting than to fucking pick a one through four.

• 1:31:09Speaker 02

  You gotta do it.

• 1:31:10Speaker 01

  No way.

• 1:31:10Bill Simmons?

  It's such a bummer because when I do the prep and there's like, I love the worst to first, as you talked about it earlier. You, you can't force it. I tried to force it a couple of times the last two pods, I'm not doing that anymore.

• 1:31:24Bill Simmons?

  And then the, oh, this division sucks, I'll talk myself into a team that has the worst odds and, and you just can't. Least wins by division. Last year, the NFC East was 27 wins.

• 1:31:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:31:36Bill Simmons?

  That was the worst. 24 AFC South, 25 wins. 23 was NFC South, 27 wins. And then the AFC South had 22, 23 wins. So that's the lowest we've had. So you think 28 wins for this division?

• 1:31:52Speaker 01

  Yep, seven and 10s across the board. I'll pick, you want my worst to first? I'll take New Orleans to win the division, that's fine.

• 1:31:57Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:31:58Speaker 01

  That's it, at seven and 10.

• 1:31:59Bill Simmons?

  I have a, a hard, hard, hard lock on Tampa. And I think they win this easily, to the point that week seven, week 17, 18, they got week 17 Rams, week 18 Saints. That might help the Saints over.

• 1:32:14Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:32:14Bill Simmons?

  If Tampa's just like, ah, we're the three seed, we're not doing anything. Okay, that's it for the NFC South, we made it, Sal, we got through it.

• 1:32:22Speaker 01

  We did it. Never again. Well, next year.

• 1:32:25Bill Simmons?

  Hey, uh, quick, quick break for FanDuel.

• 1:32:29Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:32:29Bill Simmons?

  Our friends.

• 1:32:30Speaker 01

  Let's do it.

• 1:32:31Bill Simmons?

  NFL is so close to being back. FanDuel has covered all season long.

• 1:32:36Bill Simmons?

  They have an NFL Futures Rewards Stack for the NFC. So backstory, I tried to get our friend Christian. Happy birthday, Christian.

• 1:32:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:32:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, this weekend.

• 1:32:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the, the CEO.

• 1:32:48Speaker 02

  Great job.

• 1:32:48Bill Simmons?

  We love him. He's been a great friend to the, to the Ringer. Love everybody at FanDuel. We tried to get them to do like a Black Friday type thing for Friday and.

• 1:32:58Speaker 01

  This is so smart. I wish I had thought of this.

• 1:33:00Bill Simmons?

  Couldn't totally do it, but they're doing it anyway because they have an NFL Futures Rewards Stack and it's for the NFC and you can do five Profit Boost Tokens. Where you get a 50% PBT. So like for instance.

• 1:33:13Speaker 01

  Speak English. Is it nice discount? You get a nice little discount on the.

• 1:33:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, basically like if you like my Tampa case for plus 170.

• 1:33:20Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:33:21Bill Simmons?

  Or whatever they are to win the division, put that in on the FanDuel with the PBT.

• 1:33:26Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:33:26Bill Simmons?

  They'll add 50% to it.

• 1:33:28Speaker 01

  There you go.

• 1:33:29Bill Simmons?

  Any of the stuff we've talked about so far, which will go through the locks at the end of the podcast. And they have player milestones. They have regular season wins, make, miss playoffs. And two wildcard things. You get, you have up to five. Uh, player milestones, this is one you did on the NFC North Pod House. The, the Caleb over for passing yards.

• 1:33:51Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:33:51Bill Simmons?

  What was it? Like 3,700?

• 1:33:52Speaker 02

  It's 35, 75 and a half.

• 1:33:55Bill Simmons?

  I couldn't recommend that more highly.

• 1:33:57Speaker 01

  And is, he beat that by like 400 yards.

• 1:33:59Speaker 02

  Yeah, he almost did for 4,000 last season.

• 1:34:01Bill Simmons?

  Schedule is harder. They're going to be in more games. They're gonna, their defense isn't as good. He's gonna have to throw. I thought that was a great one. Receivers are better.

• 1:34:07Speaker 01

  Good one.

• 1:34:09Bill Simmons?

  Regular season wins, you can use either of the ones Sal and I did.

• 1:34:12Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:34:12Bill Simmons?

  Make or miss playoffs. I really like Dallas to make the playoffs. I think you do too. But I would also do Tampa and then, uh, you can do whatever you want with any of the other ones. FanDuel has covered right now all season long. Listen to all of our future picks. Make sure to get into the action yourself. The PBT five pack expires end of the day, Monday, August 31st. So you have five days, House. You'll be back in DC. You can.

• 1:34:37Speaker 02

  I'll get them all in.

• 1:34:38Bill Simmons?

  Jump on all of these.

• 1:34:39Speaker 02

  You know, I'm gonna be on all of them.

• 1:34:40Bill Simmons?

  The five pack.

• 1:34:41Speaker 02

  Yep. All five, five for five.

• 1:34:43Speaker 01

  Show us your five pack, House.

• 1:34:45Speaker 02

  It's right here.

• 1:34:46Speaker 01

  After.

• 1:34:47Speaker 02

  The pizza. 10, 10 slices of Bianco.

• 1:34:52Speaker 02

  Going right into the five.

• 1:34:53Bill Simmons?

  Nathan, once again, beat you.

• 1:34:55Speaker 02

  Oh, he, he, he's a dominant pizza consumer.

• 1:34:58Bill Simmons?

  We ordered.

• 1:34:58Speaker 02

  Nathan Hubbard.

• 1:34:59Bill Simmons?

  Too many pizzas and Nathan always brags about how much pizza he can eat.

• 1:35:03Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:35:04Speaker 02

  With, with good reason.

• 1:35:05Bill Simmons?

  There's one sad slice left after all these things and Nathan's like, I'm done. I've tapped out and the thing was there for five minutes. We're like, Nathan, really? This is just, they're gonna throw this out?

• 1:35:15Speaker 01

  It's a long time. Yeah.

• 1:35:17Bill Simmons?

  And he just kinda sadly reached over and finished it off.

• 1:35:20Speaker 01

  He's about to get on a flight too.

• 1:35:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, he's probably destroying some airplane bathroom right now.

• 1:35:25Speaker 03

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• 1:36:19Bill Simmons?

  NFC West.

• 1:36:21Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:36:21Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 1:36:21Speaker 01

  This is, this is more like it.

• 1:36:23Speaker 02

  This is good.

• 1:36:23Bill Simmons?

  Let's go.

• 1:36:24Speaker 01

  Come on.

• 1:36:25Bill Simmons?

  Some good arguments here.

• 1:36:26Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:36:27Bill Simmons?

  We'll start with the LA Rams. Who are prohibitive Super Bowl favorites. Plus 500. Nobody else is, is lower than 10 to one.

• 1:36:36Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:36:38Bill Simmons?

  11 and a half wins.

• 1:36:41Bill Simmons?

  Minus 145. 12 and a half wins. Under is minus 145. So FanDuel has them pegged basically exactly at 12. Divisions almost even odds, minus 115. Playoffs minus 550. Plus 410. For the Rams not to make the playoffs, House.

• 1:37:00Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 1:37:01Bill Simmons?

  Do you stare at that at all?

• 1:37:02Speaker 02

  Yeah, I, I mean, at that price.

• 1:37:05Bill Simmons?

  We'll talk about the case for that. Best record, plus 330. Under nine and a half wins, plus 360. They were 12 and 5 last year. I think they lost the five games by 11 points here and everything.

• 1:37:17Bill Simmons?

  And they're, uh, over, under, again, they need to get basically to 12. But what if for you? What if, let's go big picture beyond the gambling. What if they don't make the Super Bowl this year?

• 1:37:29Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:37:30Bill Simmons?

  Like is to, to, to you, is this make or break, do or die, it has to be this year?

• 1:37:34Speaker 01

  I kinda think, I feel like the Matt Stafford, why the hell isn't he putting a coffin debate? Like how is this not happening already? And yes, in that regard. Yeah, it's gotta be this year. How many years can we hear about back surgeries? Spinal fusion? That sounds like an ugly term. And it doesn't matter. Like they extend them for $55 million and now they have the offensive MVP. Yeah, you goddamn right. He won it. Over Drake maybe. And, uh, and the defensive MVP for Miles Garrett. Like, I hate it because last six weeks I put together 157-page document just to tell you that the Rams are gonna be as good as everybody says.

• 1:38:13Bill Simmons?

  So you think they will?

• 1:38:14Speaker 01

  I do. Yeah.

• 1:38:16Bill Simmons?

  Last 30 years.

• 1:38:18Speaker 01

  Go ahead.

• 1:38:19Bill Simmons?

  Last 30 years. Only the Patriots have been big favorites like this and actually won the Super Bowl in 2018.

• 1:38:26Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:38:27Bill Simmons?

  Every other time the team fell short.

• 1:38:30Bill Simmons?

  They added McDuffie and Watson. They added Garrett, obviously, and probably Aaron Donald. Which I think has been overrated by everybody because if he plays, it's gonna be in the digs, 30 plays a game type thing.

• 1:38:43Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:38:44Bill Simmons?

  In the playoffs, it'll matter, I think, more than it does during the regular season. Here's what's worse about them. Offensive line is unquestionably, I think shaky is fair, right? Depth, they don't have it. Puka had, we talked about this on the fantasy pod I did on Tuesday. Puka had just the weirdest nine to 10 months you can have and then was like, no, no, I'm fine. I went to rehab and then walked through a glass door at Michael Rubin's wedding.

• 1:39:09Speaker 01

  It was just being fun.

• 1:39:10Bill Simmons?

  I don't know what to make of what's going on with him. Stafford's 38. I did this when I, when I had Pelissero on two weeks ago about 38 and up. It's basically 10 seasons that somebody's really come through.

• 1:39:22Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:39:23Bill Simmons?

  I don't like the Australia game to start the year. Makes me nervous. And then they had the 13th pick in the draft. And took Ty Simpson, who's not gonna play.

• 1:39:33Speaker 01

  Don't love him.

• 1:39:34Bill Simmons?

  Special teams. Always bad. Always seems to cost them two games. Alaric Jackson, is he gonna get suspended? Not suspended? That's their left tackle.

• 1:39:44Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:39:45Bill Simmons?

  I had them at 32 points for their roster. Um, they play AFC West, NFC East. They have the most brutal five weeks of anyone to start the season. 49ers in Australia, Giants on Monday night, at Broncos, at Eagles, home Bills, just to kick off. I couldn't get to 12 wins with them. I'm under.

• 1:40:03Speaker 01

  They lose the OC, right? Michael Flore.

• 1:40:06Bill Simmons?

  Yes, they lost him too.

• 1:40:09Speaker 01

  I just, I can't.

• 1:40:10Bill Simmons?

  Devante Adams will be 34.

• 1:40:13Speaker 01

  I just, his blue chipper's all over the place. The one thing that screwed them was the special teams and I feel like that's the easiest thing to fix, right? If you had one unit and they bring this guy in, Bubba Ventrone, is now their special teams coordinator, who sounds like an 80's jobber, right? It sounds like he's gonna lose.

• 1:40:29Bill Simmons?

  Bubba Ventrone sounds like somebody.

• 1:40:30Speaker 01

  Bubba Ventrone.

• 1:40:31Bill Simmons?

  Well, like Tony Barbieri would bring to the draft.

• 1:40:33Speaker 01

  Bubba Ventrone's in town.

• 1:40:35Speaker 02

  Well, I don't wanna get too excited. He might be a jobber because he, he was the special teams coordinator for Cleveland. Guess what place Cleveland finished?

• 1:40:42Bill Simmons?

  Oh my God, they, they were terrible.

• 1:40:44Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:40:44Speaker 01

  I'm not going under. They figure out this offense. Corum and Kieran Williams had 2,000 yards combined and 19 touchdowns. They do the two plus tight end set better than everybody, right? I, I just, you know, I know five, top five hardest schedule, but I don't think, I, I can't put this team under 12 wins. I got them at 13 and 4.

• 1:41:05Bill Simmons?

  Okay. You said blue chipper is everywhere. I would counter and zag the other way and say it's a top heavy team with a couple of guys that worry me. Adams is right at the range when wide receivers do this. Puka, we talked about Stafford at age 38.

• 1:41:21Speaker 01

  Gets rid of the ball so fast.

• 1:41:23Bill Simmons?

  I know.

• 1:41:23Speaker 01

  Like it doesn't even matter.

• 1:41:25Bill Simmons?

  I was between 11 and 12. I just, I like the, I like the juice better for under on Fanduel is plus 125 for the under 11 and a half. And I like another team more in this division is really what it came down to.

• 1:41:42Speaker 01

  Really?

• 1:41:42Bill Simmons?

  But this seems to me, we've seen this happen in football before, when there's this much smoke being blown up the asses of a team. And one bad thing happens, or somebody gets injured, or they lose some game they shouldn't lose. And that's all anyone talks about. It becomes the biggest story. And I, I just feel like there's such a big spotlight on this team. I still have them in the playoffs. I still think they're going to be one of the seven best teams, but.

• 1:42:05Speaker 01

  Weren't they the scariest team last year? Like, weren't they the team you didn't want to play forever? Right? Even when Seattle got lucky in the, in the regular season game and that could have gone either way. You look at Byron Young, he had, he's the other edge. He had 12 and a half sacks. He had 29 quarterback hits. And now he's going to have free run at these quarterbacks with Miles Garrett probably would be double teamed. And I think the secondary will be better because Miles Garrett is double teamed.

• 1:42:31Bill Simmons?

  Schedule is really rough.

• 1:42:34Speaker 01

  Are they still favored in like?

• 1:42:35Bill Simmons?

  By the way, this division plays the AFC West and the NFC East.

• 1:42:38Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:42:39Bill Simmons?

  So you get the three good AFC West teams and the Eagles and the, and the Cowboys. So that could be five tough games, not to mention all the other stuff we, we said.

• 1:42:50Speaker 01

  That O line allowed 23 sacks, I think, which is still, it was the least. So somehow they do protect him.

• 1:42:56Bill Simmons?

  Cause he gets rid of the ball.

• 1:42:57Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:42:58Bill Simmons?

  And then there's McFay. I, the Ty Simpson pick was just so weird.

• 1:43:03Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:43:03Bill Simmons?

  I'll never understand it. If you've like, on the one hand, you're going all in for Garrett. And on the other hand, you're like, well, we got to think about the future. You just traded all your picks for Miles Garrett.

• 1:43:12Speaker 02

  It's also totally fine to have that mindset. Why would you use a 13 pick on a guy that everybody projected to be was third round at best?

• 1:43:21Speaker 01

  I don't like those.

• 1:43:22Bill Simmons?

  Like they could have Ruben Bain.

• 1:43:24Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:43:24Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:43:25Speaker 01

  Yeah. And Stetson Bennett's a backup, by the way. If you look at the depth chart, he's the number two right now.

• 1:43:29Bill Simmons?

  I thought that was so weird. So you're over. Okay.

• 1:43:32Speaker 01

  I'm going, oh, I can't put this on there.

• 1:43:34Bill Simmons?

  Seattle Seahawks is over 10 and a half for the defending champs, plus 220 for the division. Please mark that one. One of my favorite bets. I don't understand how they are two to one odds to win the division and the Rams are dead even. Go figure. Playoffs minus 215. Number one seed plus 650. Best record eight to one. 12 plus wins I have in bold, plus 155. 13 plus wins is plus 280. Okay. I haven't done this the whole podcast. What are we? Hour 40 in?

• 1:44:09Speaker 01

  Six hours, 12 minutes.

• 1:44:10Bill Simmons?

  Haven't talked about the New England Patriots yet.

• 1:44:12Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 1:44:13Speaker 02

  You did talk about the Red Sox.

• 1:44:15Speaker 01

  Yeah. And something about the Wizards.

• 1:44:16Bill Simmons?

  That was your first interjection I didn't like.

• 1:44:20Bill Simmons?

  New England Patriots, we win the Super Bowl the second time. They beat the Panthers, right? Oh, three. End up winning the Super Bowl in oh, four as well. And between oh, three and oh, four, what happened? Everybody's like, eh, Colts, Colts here. Here it comes. Colts, Colts, Colts, Colts, Colts. What happened? The Pats, I think they won 21 straight over the, over the two years, which was a record. They put together the back to back, like 14 and two, 15 and one. I can't even remember. It was so long ago. Then went in and put the smackdown on the Colts again. I love that. It's a very rare occasion where somebody won the Super Bowl and is also the nobody believes in us team.

• 1:44:58Speaker 01

  Hmm. Wow.

• 1:44:59Bill Simmons?

  Just an amazing spot for them to be in. They win the Super Bowl and everyone's like, eh, Rams, Rams, Rams, Rams. These guys brought everybody back. Everybody.

• 1:45:09Speaker 01

  Not everybody.

• 1:45:10Bill Simmons?

  Well, they lost Woolen.

• 1:45:11Speaker 01

  How about the Super Bowl MVP?

• 1:45:13Bill Simmons?

  They lost Walker, but they drafted Price to, from Notre Dame to be whatever. But when I did my roster, they had the most roster rankings, most points 38. I had seven guys on their defense that got points, which is by far the most. Not to mention their special teams are awesome. Dixon and Shaheed both got points for me on that. They have one of the best receivers in the league, if not the best. I think the price thing, we talked about in the fantasy, I think he's going to be good. I don't think they're going to lose anything. And then McDonald was the best coach in the league last year.

• 1:45:46Speaker 01

  I'll give you that.

• 1:45:46Bill Simmons?

  This is a team that should have gone 19 and O. The games they lost, they easily could have won. They kind of blew. And I think they're better than the Rams. I really, I've thought, I felt this the whole summer. It's not a zag. I genuinely think they're better. And I love that everybody's saying the Rams are better. I think this is perfect. I think there's a real back to back case for them.

• 1:46:05Speaker 01

  Maybe I'm just bored with Hard Knocks because they put, spent like 20 minutes on Sam Darnold's spiral.

• 1:46:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:46:10Speaker 01

  The other day. And I was like, all right, enough. But I, my counter is how the F did this team win the Super Bowl? Sam Darnold went from 12 interceptions to 14 interceptions. He was the most turned over player in the NFL last year. Their over under was seven and a half. This is remarkable what they did. Here's who has an over under seven and a half wins. The Steelers, Bucks, Saints, Colts. Would you bet any of those to make it past the divisional round? Like.

• 1:46:38Bill Simmons?

  I mean, that was one of my big bets last year. We won all kinds of Seahawks futures.

• 1:46:42Speaker 01

  I just don't know. You know, that second most giveaways, first team to have zero turnovers in the playoffs. It was a miracle that they had all these giveaways.

• 1:46:52Bill Simmons?

  They were awesome.

• 1:46:53Speaker 01

  I think McDonald's great. I really do. I think that's the difference.

• 1:46:56Bill Simmons?

  I think he's the best coach in the league.

• 1:46:57Speaker 01

  Top three offense, top three defense. You could say whatever you want. You could explain it away. He is great. 15 and two on the road in the last two years. They don't take any games off. They play hard for him.

• 1:47:09Bill Simmons?

  They have a real home field advantage.

• 1:47:10Speaker 01

  I just think it's tough to do. They lose the Super Bowl MVP. All the quarterback coordinators left with Kubiak, which is a kind of a big thing. I don't know that he could do it again.

• 1:47:20Bill Simmons?

  The one piece that worries me. But I would argue he created this template that they're going to continue to use.

• 1:47:26Speaker 01

  No, he took that with him. Okay. All right. They lost three starring defenders too. So.

• 1:47:31Bill Simmons?

  Here's another thing.

• 1:47:32Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:47:33Bill Simmons?

  So their schedule, which is hard, but not quite as hard as you would think it would be. One of the best things that happened, they're playing the Patriots in the first game. The Patriots aren't going to win that. I love the Patriots. We're not winning that game.

• 1:47:44Speaker 01

  Button your shirt.

• 1:47:45Bill Simmons?

  We're not winning that game.

• 1:47:46Speaker 01

  Who cares?

• 1:47:46Bill Simmons?

  Super Bowl loser going back, playing the Super Bowl winner. Like we're, we're not winning that game. But later in the season, maybe we can go in there, but that's just like such a bad spot for the Pats. They play the Chargers at home. They play the Cowboys. That's a Monday night at home. They play the Eagles in mid-December, right around when the Eagles start doing weird shit. And then they're at the Rams, but it's week 18. They might not even need the game.

• 1:48:11Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:48:11Bill Simmons?

  Or they might really need the game.

• 1:48:13Speaker 01

  Time and five are at home. So that definitely, that definitely helps.

• 1:48:16Bill Simmons?

  There's some shit teams on this schedule too. But I just.

• 1:48:20Speaker 01

  So you don't think 14 to 11? Like that's where I have them. I have them 11 and six. Still a good team.

• 1:48:25Bill Simmons?

  Well, the over is 10 and a half. So.

• 1:48:26Speaker 01

  Right. Okay.

• 1:48:27Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's an over.

• 1:48:28Speaker 01

  So there you go.

• 1:48:28Speaker 02

  It's a good over.

• 1:48:29Bill Simmons?

  I have them at 13 and four. And I like the 13 plus wins at plus 280. I like the one seed at plus 650. I like, I like, I'm bullish on all of these.

• 1:48:39Speaker 01

  How about?

• 1:48:39Bill Simmons?

  I think it's going to be surprising every time they lose.

• 1:48:42Speaker 01

  Sure. What about Terry and Arnold Karma?

• 1:48:46Bill Simmons?

  I didn't love that.

• 1:48:47Speaker 01

  I don't get it.

• 1:48:48Bill Simmons?

  But how, that didn't stop the Chiefs as they had 14 weird things happen over five years.

• 1:48:53Speaker 01

  No, I get it. I just don't know.

• 1:48:55Bill Simmons?

  I don't believe in football karma anymore because the Chiefs like to fight it. And I guess kind of the Patriots did too, since we had a double murderer on our team.

• 1:49:02Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:49:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we had that guy.

• 1:49:03Speaker 01

  I didn't. And we're going to see with the Ravens with the Max Crosby thing, because that was ridiculous too. But why do you do, why the Lions have to cut them and then another team could just get them and it's fine?

• 1:49:14Bill Simmons?

  I just think there's no honor in football.

• 1:49:16Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:49:17Bill Simmons?

  The, they lost their second rounder, Bud Clark, who wasn't supposed to start, but was like important for backup stuff. Really, if Price can be 95% what Walker was, and the Seahawks fans, I think all really liked Walker, but also didn't a hundred percent trust him because he was never, he'd always have some weird banged up in some way.

• 1:49:36Speaker 01

  Charbonne is a little hurt too, right?

• 1:49:37Bill Simmons?

  Charbonne is a little hurt. So if Price is a bust, I don't think he's going to be.

• 1:49:44Speaker 01

  I'm just saying how Darnold wasn't all that. It was a remarkable run, but statistically it was improbable.

• 1:49:53Speaker 02

  And yet they, they did it.

• 1:49:54Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:49:55Speaker 02

  That's the.

• 1:49:56Bill Simmons?

  I'm going to walk you through this really quick.

• 1:50:01Bill Simmons?

  There's a world where they're 10-0 after 10 weeks.

• 1:50:04Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:50:06Bill Simmons?

  I think you can make a case they're favored in every one of these games.

• 1:50:08Speaker 02

  Find this here.

• 1:50:10Bill Simmons?

  Pats, week one, at Cards, at Commanders. I think that's 3-0. Chargers, 49ers at home, they're gonna be favored in both of those. At Broncos on a Thursday night, might not be favored on that, that's week six. Chiefs, Bears, home, Cardinals, home.

• 1:50:24Speaker 02

  At Raiders.

• 1:50:25Bill Simmons?

  At Raiders, week 10.

• 1:50:26Speaker 01

  Then the bye.

• 1:50:27Bill Simmons?

  And the bye.

• 1:50:27Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:50:28Bill Simmons?

  I think that, I think they're gonna be 9-1 or 10-0.

• 1:50:30Speaker 01

  I have them 8-2, but.

• 1:50:31Bill Simmons?

  I think I'm taking crazy pills with the Seahawks. Their roster is so fucking loaded. And the only thing you can say is, ah, they won last year, they're gonna, it's the year after. It's like, nobody's picking them or talking about them and everyone's moved on to the Rams. I think they'd see it and notice it.

• 1:50:47Speaker 01

  Good team, we more or less agree. It's, it's an over, right?

• 1:50:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but you like the Rams one.

• 1:50:52Speaker 01

  I do.

• 1:50:54Bill Simmons?

  There you go. See, put that on your bulletin board, Mike McDonald. Cousin Sal, year 20.

• 1:51:00Bill Simmons?

  San Francisco 49ers, over 9.5, division plus 340, I would not recommend that. Super Bowl 17-1. 12-plus wins, plus 230, playoffs minus 134, not to make it plus 114, House. Under 8.5 wins, plus 190, if you're really banking on the year from hell. Last year, they were 12-5 and nobody understood it as it was happening.

• 1:51:26Bill Simmons?

  What if?

• 1:51:29Bill Simmons?

  We already know, this is the year from hell team? You can argue they were the year from hell team last year.

• 1:51:34Speaker 01

  There's no preseason drama.

• 1:51:35Bill Simmons?

  Let me give you some stuff.

• 1:51:36Speaker 01

  Go ahead.

• 1:51:38Bill Simmons?

  Kyle Shanahan, terrible car accident, covered up. We still don't know what happened, and got a severe concussion, right? Bad start, big, little scandally over there. Jed York, owner, sitting in a trailer park in Ohio.

• 1:51:53Speaker 01

  Say it without laughing.

• 1:51:54Bill Simmons?

  Allegedly paying for a prostitute. Had that happen. Ricky Pierceall, they lost for the year. George Kittle, tore his Achilles in 2026, in January. He's just gonna come back and be George Kittle again, he's in his early 30s now. Fred Warner, coming off a really bad knee injury. Was it knee injury or ankle?

• 1:52:14Speaker 01

  It was knee, I thought, yeah.

• 1:52:16Bill Simmons?

  McCaffrey, they struck oil with him last year, there's a lot of advanced stats against him. They, they're rolling the dice with Evans and Debo together. Two guys that.

• 1:52:25Speaker 01

  They didn't want to sign Debo. They're like, well, please, what do we have to do?

• 1:52:28Bill Simmons?

  Please, no, please, we can't do this.

• 1:52:29Speaker 01

  Everybody's hurt.

• 1:52:30Bill Simmons?

  And they have an electrical substation that might be fucking up all their players, next to think. I'm out.

• 1:52:36Speaker 01

  Let's talk about that electrical substation.

• 1:52:38Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:52:39Speaker 01

  Why can't they move? It's a practice facility.

• 1:52:41Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:52:41Speaker 01

  Let's see what happens. Maybe everybody's wrong, but move for a year. It can't cost too much money to move those players.

• 1:52:47Bill Simmons?

  If I owned the team, I'd move the practice.

• 1:52:49Speaker 01

  Just move it. Move it to a trailer park in Ohio, whatever you have to do.

• 1:52:52Bill Simmons?

  Maybe that's why, maybe he was scouting locations.

• 1:52:54Speaker 01

  That's what I would've said, if he was smart enough.

• 1:52:56Bill Simmons?

  I was looking, maybe Ohio, it's not that far from San Francisco.

• 1:52:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:53:01Bill Simmons?

  Short flight.

• 1:53:02Speaker 01

  Here's my counter, I think they're bulletproof with these injuries.

• 1:53:07Bill Simmons?

  It's, it's very fair.

• 1:53:08Speaker 01

  They had 74 player injuries before week one last year.

• 1:53:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:53:12Speaker 01

  And they were still, they could've won the division. They were playing Seattle, what was it, week 17? Like, they were up right to win that division. So they would've been in the mix. It's very weird, very weird what happened.

• 1:53:23Bill Simmons?

  Listen, this is not a lock for me. I would, I did a very tiny under at, at 9-8. It's plus 115 on Fanduel, so there's a little juice on it, but they're either gonna be 10-7 or 9-8.

• 1:53:34Speaker 01

  I had them at 11. I have them 11-6.

• 1:53:37Bill Simmons?

  Oh, wow. I would not do that.

• 1:53:38Speaker 01

  Yeah, Miami, Arizona, home for Denver, I think could be three wins outside of that Rams game. They go, they, they travel more than anyone else, I'll say that, like 38,000 miles, which has never been seen before.

• 1:53:53Bill Simmons?

  I had their roster at 26 points, which says they're gonna be a playoff team, but doesn't account for the fact that they're in a division with probably the two best teams in the conference. O-line's a little above average. Defense should be okay. Shanahan, assuming he's recovered from his mysterious car accident, is still a top five or six coach. I guess the question for me, can they be 3-2 after five weeks? At Rams, in Australia.

• 1:54:23Bill Simmons?

  Dolphins, Cardinals, Broncos, all at home.

• 1:54:25Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:54:26Bill Simmons?

  At Seahawks. Feels like that should be 3-2.

• 1:54:30Speaker 02

  3-2.

• 1:54:30Bill Simmons?

  If you're 3-2 at that point, now I need to go 8-5 the rest of the way to get there. I still get to play the Falcons, I get the Raiders, the Giants. I get the Cardinals in week 18.

• 1:54:41Speaker 02

  Home against Washington.

• 1:54:43Speaker 01

  Minnesota, Minnesota, yeah. Winnable games, for sure.

• 1:54:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's, I'm probably wrong, but I, I just, when there's this much bad juju before we're not even two weeks away from the season, what else is gonna happen? And then everybody's like, Stribling, looks great, he's gonna be an impact guy right away. When are rookie receivers impact guys? When does that happen?

• 1:55:03Speaker 01

  Well, would you say Ted McMillan was a?

• 1:55:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, as the year went along, but it took a while, and it was really like down the stretch. They need him like in week one to be seven catches, 100 yards. Like, somebody's gonna pay 20 bucks for him in our fantasy auction.

• 1:55:18Speaker 01

  You guys talked about it fantasy yesterday, the day before, Purdy quietly, like, top 10 whenever he's healthy.

• 1:55:24Bill Simmons?

  He's really good.

• 1:55:25Speaker 01

  So, they have like 70% pre-snap motion plays, and it's still, to give Shanahan credit, has not been solved by these defenses.

• 1:55:36Bill Simmons?

  I might change my pick.

• 1:55:38Speaker 01

  Well, you don't want to give all these top-heavy wins, but we get to Arizona next and we could just bombs away on them.

• 1:55:46Bill Simmons?

  What do you think, House? House might swing my pick here.

• 1:55:49Speaker 02

  I like the San Francisco 49ers for 10 wins. I like them over this upcoming season. That schedule has too many built in. Them getting Washington and the Giants.

• 1:55:59Bill Simmons?

  I think I'm gonna change my pick.

• 1:56:00Speaker 02

  And two Arizonas. You get the 10, and then, and Shanahan always, I mean, what Shanahan did to the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs, that's like a reminder.

• 1:56:10Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:56:10Speaker 02

  You know, he can come in and scheme against excellent teams.

• 1:56:13Speaker 01

  Mac Jones won five games last year.

• 1:56:14Bill Simmons?

  I really wanted to hold strong here and I just can't.

• 1:56:16Speaker 01

  It's okay.

• 1:56:16Speaker 02

  10 wins for them.

• 1:56:17Speaker 01

  We'll tee off on the Cardinals and it'll all make sense.

• 1:56:20Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:56:20Bill Simmons?

  Can I figure out how to pick them for 10 wins but not make the playoffs? Maybe I'll try to do that, hold on. Can I do that?

• 1:56:27Bill Simmons?

  Simmons, Rams. Oh, I can do that. Okay. I had them 10 wins but missed the playoffs.

• 1:56:34Speaker 01

  I love this. I was up to like 2:00 in the morning the other night meticulously going, then you're like, ah, I'm gonna change my pick here, what do I do?

• 1:56:41Bill Simmons?

  Hey, listen.

• 1:56:42Speaker 01

  You can do it, it's America.

• 1:56:43Bill Simmons?

  Playoffs, plus 114 to miss. So I'm gonna go over, but they're 10-7 and they're in a tiebreaker with somebody that I'm.

• 1:56:49Speaker 02

  The tiebreaker will be with Dallas.

• 1:56:50Speaker 01

  Dallas, I was just gonna say.

• 1:56:51Bill Simmons?

  There you go.

• 1:56:51Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:56:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so if they lose at Cowboys, week 10, that's gonna cause them.

• 1:56:56Speaker 02

  That's the playoff spot.

• 1:56:57Bill Simmons?

  There we go.

• 1:56:58Speaker 01

  Favored in 12 games.

• 1:57:00Speaker 02

  Shanahan's beat the hell out of Dallas.

• 1:57:02Bill Simmons?

  I have under, last year, last year I lost.

• 1:57:05Speaker 01

  Go eat something.

• 1:57:07Bill Simmons?

  The money I lost last year on futures was multiple Niners bets on the under, they went over, and then the Chiefs, which killed all of us. The Chiefs like that, talk about Netflix true crime. That could've been like the Idaho killers, the 2025 Chiefs. Just murdering everybody who loves division. I will do no division parlays this year. I only made one parlay.

• 1:57:30Speaker 01

  To win the, oh, really? But you'll do this first to fourth bullshit?

• 1:57:34Bill Simmons?

  But that, those are like big odds. I'm saying like in the past, you would.

• 1:57:38Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:57:38Bill Simmons?

  You would call me like on August 20th, be like, hey, Simmons. Doing a Cousin Sal presentation.

• 1:57:43Speaker 01

  What? I don't like this at all.

• 1:57:44Bill Simmons?

  Hey, Simmons. If we do Bills, Chiefs, Rams, all for the playoffs, plus 112, who fucks us?

• 1:57:58Speaker 01

  What is that? That's, that's you committing a bird worry.

• 1:58:01Bill Simmons?

  It's like a heavy brother.

• 1:58:02Speaker 02

  Yeah, it was very breathy.

• 1:58:04Bill Simmons?

  But we would do these three teamers.

• 1:58:06Speaker 01

  To make the playoffs, we're always.

• 1:58:07Bill Simmons?

  And the Chiefs were like, well, throw them in, they're gonna make it every year for the rest of our lives. And then they went 6-11.

• 1:58:12Speaker 01

  Yeah. We called it the KCD, right? Like a CD, like you save for the future.

• 1:58:19Bill Simmons?

  The reason I brought that up, I think Houston and Seattle both to make the playoffs is my favorite one of those. And that's like plus 120 on Fanduel, something like that. Just Houston and Seattle will make the playoffs. Put your profit boost token 50% add on that. I just don't see how that gets fucked up. Like CJ Strad would really like have to turn into a Deshaun Watson level collapse.

• 1:58:44Speaker 01

  You have like 30 wins between those teams, yeah.

• 1:58:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:58:47Speaker 01

  That would take a lot.

• 1:58:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I think House is nodding.

• 1:58:50Speaker 02

  Well, it's because, we talked about this some on our gambling show, the direction the league is going, where defense is becoming much more sticky than year over year. And you just named two of the best defenses in the entire NFL.

• 1:59:03Bill Simmons?

  And that's been a recurring theme for me with these futures, is defenses and offensive lines. And if, if you have a really good version of one or both, I'm in. And in this case, Seattle has an above-average offensive line, and I think the best defense in the NFC. I think Houston has the best defense. All right, last one. Arizona Cardinals, over 3.5. These are really tough historically. When teams are just supposed to be bad.

• 1:59:33Bill Simmons?

  Division, they're 100 to one. Playoffs, they're 20 to one. If you want to bet them not to make the playoffs, it's 71. So don't do that.

• 1:59:40Speaker 02

  70. So I have to borrow $7,000 from you to win 100?

• 1:59:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I'll give it to you when you leave.

• 1:59:44Speaker 02

  All right, thank you.

• 1:59:45Bill Simmons?

  Worst record, plus 250. Last year, they were 3 and 14.

• 1:59:49Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:59:50Bill Simmons?

  This year, if you're picking them to go under, you're gonna say they go 3 and 14 again. And my question for you is, what if they start out 0 and 11? Do you still feel good about the under 3 and 1/2?

• 2:00:00Speaker 01

  It's great because...

• 2:00:01Bill Simmons?

  Because they're gonna start out 0 and 11.

• 2:00:03Speaker 01

  There's an 0 and 5 thing on Fanduel, a number for that, for them to start 0 and 5. And I love that.

• 2:00:08Bill Simmons?

  Doesn't Fanduel have the bet where it's like, who's gonna be the last team that has a win?

• 2:00:12Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:00:13Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah.

• 2:00:13Bill Simmons?

  Can you find that for us, House?

• 2:00:14Speaker 01

  Yeah, House, please.

• 2:00:15Speaker 02

  That's a good one.

• 2:00:16Bill Simmons?

  I think it's Arizona, because they go at Chargers, Seahawks, at Niners, at Giants, home Lions, at Rams, Broncos, at Cowboys, at Seattle, Rams, at Chiefs.

• 2:00:26Speaker 01

  I have them 1 and 10, yeah.

• 2:00:28Bill Simmons?

  Are they gonna be getting less than 7 points in any game, other than the Giants game?

• 2:00:32Speaker 01

  No.

• 2:00:32Bill Simmons?

  The Giants will probably be like, plus 4 and 1/2.

• 2:00:34Speaker 01

  They're not favoring any games, right? Zero games. Look, this is a stupid, stupid franchise. Not billionaire seeking out a hooker for $140 stupid, but, I mean, to draft a running back who's already banged up with a draft cap, first round draft capital, when you don't even have a quarterback. First of all, that running back is gonna be wasted for at least 2 years.

• 2:01:00Speaker 02

  They ran him 14 fucking times.

• 2:01:02Speaker 01

  Awful.

• 2:01:03Speaker 02

  In the first preseason game. And he looked awesome, by the way.

• 2:01:07Speaker 01

  And you don't...

• 2:01:07Speaker 02

  Now he's fucking hurt!

• 2:01:08Speaker 01

  But you don't have a quarterback. You have to at least have a quarterback sign. Instead, you have Jacoby Brissette, who holds this team hostage for most of the summer. He's like, hey, I'm 1 and 11 with you guys. You definitely need me back. You see what I could do in garbage time, right? That's why my stats aren't completely miserable. You know what it is with Brissette. I can't believe like this is...

• 2:01:28Bill Simmons?

  Brissette was so bad with us 2 years ago, but he was pretty good in garbage time last year.

• 2:01:32Speaker 01

  That's all it is. It's fine. They had all those games lost before he did it. They were 0 and 6 against the NFC West.

• 2:01:37Bill Simmons?

  This sounds like a lock for you.

• 2:01:38Speaker 01

  You can't lock a 3, though, because you have to be, you have to give them 2 wins then.

• 2:01:44Bill Simmons?

  But here's the thing...

• 2:01:44Speaker 01

  I went 3 and 14.

• 2:01:46Bill Simmons?

  I did as well.

• 2:01:47Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:01:48Bill Simmons?

  But you're not gonna lock that?

• 2:01:49Speaker 01

  Killer division. I'll lock it, yeah. Zero games, played the toughest schedule. I don't see how any of this works out for Michael Floyd.

• 2:01:57Speaker 01

  Oh, and by the way, Nate Hackett, private eye, is the OC, our guy.

• 2:02:01Bill Simmons?

  We should've mentioned that sooner.

• 2:02:05Bill Simmons?

  The Love pick was just malpractice, even though I know everybody likes him, but I...

• 2:02:10Speaker 01

  It's fine.

• 2:02:10Bill Simmons?

  They're like, super deep at running back, because they also signed Tyler Algier for some reason.

• 2:02:14Speaker 01

  Right.

• 2:02:15Bill Simmons?

  So it's like, hey, we have some awesome running backs. It's cool. Every other position is below average.

• 2:02:20Speaker 01

  Yeah. The coach didn't believe it. What was it? It was the OC who said, yeah, he's a rookie. What'd he say about Love? Yeah, he's a rookie. And, oh, I'm excited to see James Connor and Algier compete. Like, he doesn't even get...

• 2:02:32Bill Simmons?

  I had them for roster rankings. I had them for 6 points.

• 2:02:37Bill Simmons?

  And McBride was 3 of them. Baker, I gave a 2. And I gave Marvin Harrison a 1. I'm not, it's probably him or Wilson is a 1 combined, maybe.

• 2:02:46Speaker 01

  Right.

• 2:02:47Bill Simmons?

  But I just think they're gonna get smoked. I mean, Sharp, Sharp did these...

• 2:02:55Speaker 01

  Oh, pretty colors.

• 2:02:57Bill Simmons?

  Sharp did these graphs for some of the teams. And it's the win total projections. And they're just all at the top for 11 weeks, like...

• 2:03:07Speaker 02

  It's the hardest schedule in the league.

• 2:03:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, because they don't have to play them. They can't play themselves.

• 2:03:12Speaker 02

  They get to play themselves.

• 2:03:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:03:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's why this has been a hard, I think, summer to figure out all this stuff, because sometimes the hardest schedule in the league, you want to a team, like, give it to, like, San Francisco. And then it's like, oh, yeah, now go in.

• 2:03:25Speaker 01

  Right, but they're gonna go 0 and 6 again, because they can't go 0 and 8. Yeah, and in the division. I, yeah, I don't know what it... I mean, the best thing you could hope for is, like, Carson Beck steps up and looks good for next year or something.

• 2:03:38Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna make my annual plea. Maybe I'm gonna look at my camera for a second, but then look back at Sal, then go back and forth.

• 2:03:45Speaker 01

  You have your own thing. Where is it?

• 2:03:46Bill Simmons?

  My camera's there. Your camera's there.

• 2:03:49Bill Simmons?

  We're just gonna get fucked 3 Sundays this year, where there's 2 games in the afternoon window. One's a blowout, and the other's the Cardinals losing by 38 points in the second quarter. It makes me so mad. They should never, there should not be 1 situation this year where the Cardinals are 1 of 2 games in the late window.

• 2:04:05Speaker 01

  Right.

• 2:04:06Bill Simmons?

  We have to at least have 3. Protect us. Protect us, NFL. Don't, don't just leave us hanging in the toilet, no toilet paper with the Cardinals.

• 2:04:15Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 2:04:15Bill Simmons?

  Just wondering, hey, can you give me some toilet paper?

• 2:04:18Speaker 01

  Right.

• 2:04:19Bill Simmons?

  Like, think about us. Think about the fans.

• 2:04:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, spare square.

• 2:04:22Speaker 01

  How about this? I'm gonna use your camera, too.

• 2:04:25Bill Simmons?

  No, use your camera. Your camera's right here.

• 2:04:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, Goodell, petition the Cardinals to move to, like, Arkansas, so they can play the 10 a.m. Pacific time.

• 2:04:34Bill Simmons?

  Oh, yeah, move to the East Coast.

• 2:04:36Speaker 01

  Yeah, so put them with the garbage games there.

• 2:04:38Bill Simmons?

  Can they switch with a AFC team?

• 2:04:40Speaker 01

  That we like in the, yeah, the Bills, yeah.

• 2:04:44Bill Simmons?

  You put the Bills on the West Coast. That'd be amazing. House, 90 seconds on the NFC West.

• 2:04:49Speaker 02

  I have the Seattle Seahawks winning the division at 12 wins. Right behind them, the L.A. Rams, right behind them, San Francisco at 10 wins. And Arizona to win, worst record, that's the correct play, for sure. It's between them and Miami, you'll be able to hedge it out at the very end of the season.

• 2:05:06Bill Simmons?

  Because we're gonna have the tanking stuff, too.

• 2:05:08Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 2:05:08Bill Simmons?

  There's been like, 3 quarterbacks everybody's gonna want.

• 2:05:10Speaker 02

  That's exactly right. So, other than Arizona, good division, we're gonna see great games in between those 2 teams, those 3 teams. They always, you know, round robin it between the 3 of them.

• 2:05:21Bill Simmons?

  So you're just not scared of the San Francisco bad juju, though?

• 2:05:26Speaker 02

  I mean, 10 wins. That's the step backwards from last season.

• 2:05:29Speaker 01

  You have more wins for the NFC North or the NFC West?

• 2:05:34Bill Simmons?

  I think, I think I'm dead even, although I might have added a win with San Francisco, which screwed up on my math.

• 2:05:39Speaker 01

  Come on.

• 2:05:41Bill Simmons?

  Okay, so our locks...

• 2:05:42Speaker 01

  That's a fun thing for Fanduel. You could do the one division more than the other, and West is a good place to start.

• 2:05:47Bill Simmons?

  I was trying to get them to do NFC, like, biggest, the parlay, most wins in 1 division, least wins in the other division. But you, do you think the NFC West has the most wins?

• 2:05:59Speaker 01

  I think I did. I lost that 1 of 60 sheets here that I can't find. But, yeah, well, I have the 3 double-digit.

• 2:06:07Bill Simmons?

  Well, because the most wins, I had this, I had this somewhere. The most wins...

• 2:06:13Speaker 01

  I have 39 for the NFC West, and, yeah, 37 for the...

• 2:06:17Bill Simmons?

  So I had trouble getting to 40 wins in any division, in my laying it all out. Last year, the winner was the NFC West with 41. That was the most wins.

• 2:06:25Speaker 01

  Right.

• 2:06:25Bill Simmons?

  In '24, the NFC North had 45 wins.

• 2:06:28Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 2:06:29Bill Simmons?

  2023, the AFC North had 43. And then in 2022, the NFC East had 43. So history tells us we're between 41 and 43, basically. And I couldn't get to 40 anywhere. So maybe it's this one. Who knows? Okay. To recap, let's recap the locks. Are you only in 2 locks?

• 2:06:50Speaker 01

  I think I had 2, right?

• 2:06:51Bill Simmons?

  Yep, you had Arizona.

• 2:06:52Speaker 01

  Cardinals under, and Giants under.

• 2:06:55Bill Simmons?

  Those were your 2.

• 2:06:55Speaker 01

  To me, I think if we're gonna do a playoff parlay, let's do a not make the playoff parlay. Every year, we do a 2 make the playoff parlay, and then the team's like, 2 and 4, or...

• 2:07:03Bill Simmons?

  We can work on that for part 2. I have Dallas over 9 and 1/2, Washington under 7 and 1/2, Tampa over 8 and 1/2, Atlanta under 7 and 1/2, Seattle over 10 and 1/2. I'm calling it right now. That's gonna be 5 and 0.

• 2:07:14Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 2:07:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:07:15Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 2:07:16Bill Simmons?

  Fanduel, put that, put that on your, on your site. My 5-team parlay of win total overs and unders.

• 2:07:23Speaker 01

  Say it to my camera now.

• 2:07:25Bill Simmons?

  Fanduel! Okay. And we think the NFC champion is going to be?

• 2:07:32Speaker 01

  The L.A. Rams.

• 2:07:35Bill Simmons?

  I have the Seattle Seahawks.

• 2:07:38Bill Simmons?

  I will say, I thought long and hard about picking your team. But I felt like you were gonna walk out and not do part 2.

• 2:07:45Speaker 01

  It's so funny.

• 2:07:46Bill Simmons?

  If I had taken Dallas, I think you would've left.

• 2:07:48Speaker 01

  I have Dallas over...

• 2:07:49Bill Simmons?

  You motherfucker, how can you do this to me?

• 2:07:51Speaker 01

  Dallas is a 3 seed over Seattle, is my first round pick, and I have the Rams beating the Packers in the NFC Championship.

• 2:08:00Bill Simmons?

  The only thing we know for sure is Tampa will be the 4 seed, ready to play either Seattle or the Rams. Tampa already is getting 5 points in the wild card game, even though they haven't played yet.

• 2:08:10Speaker 01

  That's the only line they have, playoff line there.

• 2:08:11Bill Simmons?

  House, what was your favorite lock?

• 2:08:14Speaker 02

  The Atlanta. I'm so super out on Atlanta.

• 2:08:19Bill Simmons?

  That's it for part 1, which we were happy to do live here on Netflix on Sunday. We're going to have part 2, which is going to be the AFC. Same format, same strategy. We're gonna take a break. Maybe get some drinks. Thanks to Gahad, thanks to Eduardo, thanks to Fanduel, thanks to everybody behind the scenes at The Ringer. Thanks to Don Johnson, still smoking the same cigarette. Thanks to Farah. And I will see you for the AFC, can't we?

• 2:09:05Bill Simmons?

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