Wall Street Soars, Midterms Shake Up AI Race, Prediction Markets Win | Diet TBPN

Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with each episode posted to podcast platforms right after. Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. TBPN is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Public - https://public.com Cisco - https://www.cisco.com Console - https://www.console.com CrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.com Figma - https://www.figma.com MongoDB - https://www.mongodb.com NYSE - https://www.nyse.com Railway - https://railway.com Shopify - https://www.shopify.com/ Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

• 0:00Speaker 00

  Historic day, yesterday, of course, 51 days till Christmas. We missed it on the show. Yesterday was 51 days till Christmas. That means today, 50 days till Christmas. 50 days till Christmas. We're counting down here. Getting pretty Christmasy right here. Apple is 50 years old. Not today, just generally.

• 0:24Speaker 01

  It's generally a 50-year-old company.

• 0:27Speaker 00

  Happened over the summer. We talked about it when it happened, but reminder, it's 50 years old. We're doing free association here. No, of course, the midterms took over the timeline as a, the Wall Street Journal cover story, Democrats Take Congress in Stunning Rebuke of Trump. This was confusing to me. This is confusing to a lot of folks in our audience. So I went over to Chad GPT and tried to figure out what's going on. So I asked, what are the midterms? And apparently the midterms are US elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. They happen every four years, two years after a presidential election. The 2026 midterms, I guess they were on Tuesday, so yesterday.

• 1:10Speaker 00

  They're called the midterms. This is a fun fact because voters are effectively passing judgment on the president and the governing party at the midpoint of the presidency. And so now you're kind of up to speed. You kind of understand what's going on with politics. We said yesterday we'd get into politics, deep dive. And I think we, I think we went pretty deep just now.

• 1:29Speaker 01

  Nailed it.

• 1:29Speaker 00

  I think we nailed it. No.

• 1:31Speaker 01

  Deeper than we've ever gone.

• 1:32Speaker 00

  Extremely. Yeah. No, we've been, we've been pretty out of the loop, haven't really been covering it, but there are some interesting posts, some interesting knock-on effects. Tyler Cowen had a cool reflection on the election. He said procedurally, it seems to have gone just fine. And this was a big question because the freezers are getting hacked. There were a lot of questions about like, if the grid goes down now, that would be the worst time for cyber attacks.

• 1:56Speaker 01

  Yeah, there were reports of like power outages in Florida. And I was wondering, okay, is this like?

• 2:01Speaker 00

  Yeah. And the, the important thing is that both sides are kind of like, Trump's like, yeah, we accept the results. And the Democrats are like, yeah, we won. Yeah. Great. And so it's not even that there's like rumors or whispers. It's like everyone agrees.

• 2:13Speaker 01

  I don't want to speak too soon, but it seems like a functioning democracy. People were very upset and unhappy. They sort of, you know.

• 2:21Speaker 00

  Yeah. No, no.

• 2:23Speaker 01

  And the results are being accepted, which is a nice change.

• 2:28Speaker 00

  Yeah. Yeah. Ron Albaari is in the Wall Street Journal. He's the chief investment officer at multifamily office, L N W. Let's give it up for multifamily offices. He said, I also think equity investors are breathing some kind of relief that the president is going to accept the results. And so I'm sure everyone's seen, but the stock market is booming today. The Dow Jones is up 3%. The NASDAQ's up 1.88%. Russell 2000 is up as well. There's a bunch of positive news in the market, but the AI trade is still shifting around. Not everything is up. It's not all green. The, the deck is reshuffling and Ben Thompson had a really great breakdown.

• 3:11Speaker 00

  10 hot takes that we can go through in just a minute. But Tyler Cowen in his roundup, he says, rising in status, Matt Iglesias, socially moderate, moderate Democrats did very well. Normie, social science results on campaign finance and Nate Silver predictions all did very well. Bawling in status, tariffs are on the way out, corruption's on the way out, war with Iran, wealth taxes lost in California. Gerrymandering came back to hurt Republicans, given the blue wave. There's actually another name for gerrymandering that hurts you. It's a different phrase. I heard it from Nate Silver on some podcasts, but I can't remember it. And he says, and there you go. So fun, fun reflections. The prediction markets also held up. Well, we, I felt like we were going to get into a debate. Have you changed your position?

• 3:54Speaker 00

  Are you impressed or unsatisfied with the quality of prediction markets this time around?

• 4:00Speaker 01

  Overall, they called almost everything right.

• 4:04Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 4:04Speaker 01

  I thought that obviously Texas was, was a bit of a surprise. Like the prediction market is not that helpful. If it looks, you know, one way, you know, for months and months and months, and then in the two hours before results are in, it flips completely.

• 4:17Speaker 00

  This is always the trick, right?

• 4:18Speaker 01

  But, but I mean, again, and it's hard to process that, you know, if, if something has a 30% chance of happening.

• 4:26Speaker 00

  That's one in three. I'll take those odds any day.

• 4:31Speaker 01

  Anyways, so yeah, some, some surprises, but, but overall, like they seem to be pretty effective. It was interesting. There, there was a number of people, both in tech and tech adjacent, that were basically taking the stance of the polls are wrong and the prediction markets are wrong. Like just every indicator that we have is, is wrong. And then it turns out they were actually, those individuals were wrong. They were way more wrong than I think anybody even thought they were.

• 5:04Speaker 00

  Don't make it right in this scenario, I suppose. Yeah. So Call She, Call She came in at 95% accuracy when the polls opened. So you can always look at a prediction market and it's like, oh, right before the mainstream media calls the election. The prediction markets usually have it pretty dialed right before then. But the question is like, what's the predictive power a month, two months before? But even three months before Call She was at 81% accuracy, whereas Vote Hub average was 77%.

• 5:35Speaker 01

  Which, which that's, that's, you know, just, just my napkin math. That feels pretty impressive, given that a lot of those markets at the time were not like 80, 20. Right? They were, they were more like 60, 40, right? And so it would appear that there, you, you can maybe put a little bit more weight on average on markets where there's like a definitive leader.

• 5:56Speaker 00

  Yeah. So from my perspective, the, people felt this way with, I think it was the Emmys or the Oscars where the prediction markets were on the, were on the screen. And so, you know, the announcer comes out and says, oh, the, the best picture nominees are, and then you can just see like 99% chance that this person's going to win. And I think Polly market called every single one correctly. So it sort of like ruined the, the thrill of watching it because you're just like, oh, okay. Again, the one that they put on screen won. And that's sort of how I felt where I felt like the prediction markets were calling this blue wave for months.

• 6:32Speaker 01

  And it worked. You can put odds on the screen during a football game because the result is not decided when somebody just walks out on the field and reads the result. Whereas in some of these award shows, it literally is just like pre-decided. Somebody comes out, reads the result, it's over. Yeah, it doesn't transfer.

• 6:47Speaker 00

  And so, yeah, going into yesterday, I, I was very much like, I'm not following it today. I, I just, I'm, I've processed all of, all of this and all the downstream effects. And I think the market had as well. I think a lot of the selling off in the AI stocks in some of the data center builders, I think that was because everyone was clocking that this was going to be the outcome. And so you don't think so?

• 7:12Speaker 01

  I don't. The thing is, I don't recall seeing a single person making the claim that the Texas governor was going to be a Democrat.

• 7:21Speaker 00

  That's true. Yeah.

• 7:22Speaker 01

  At any point, other than.

• 7:23Speaker 00

  I guess that is sort of a, like a surprise.

• 7:25Speaker 01

  Right when the prediction markets flipped last night.

• 7:27Speaker 00

  But I, I would say that although the, the Texas, Texas race is important, the 40 odd data center bills are probably more important in aggregate.

• 7:38Speaker 01

  For sure.

• 7:39Speaker 00

  And so those have been in process that it would, that permitting would become more.

• 7:44Speaker 01

  And the other thing is, it's not like Greg, it's not like Greg Abbott was like doing rallies, being like, we're going to build them all here. He was also, he was also.

• 7:52Speaker 00

  He actually enacted a moratorium of, of one month. And so, yeah, it was, it was going back and forth. The other interesting story is, yeah, I mean, compute campuses, big loser, except for in North Dakota, North computer, North Dakota voted in favor. But Ben Thompson has 10 takeaways that we can kind of run through. He says, the AI trade got it right. The most obvious reason why the stock market has been rocky over the last few weeks is the tightening of credit markets. We are needless to say, full on into the equity funding era. At the same time, it seems that this outcome is very bad for the AI trade in the short term.

• 8:29Speaker 00

  But much of the pain may have already been endured because we've seen that selling off, even though a spot markets, like the value of a, of a GPU hour is increasing. The models are getting better, but maybe there's been a process over the last few months, mostly speculative, that, that people have been digesting the fact that there might be a pullback in new compute coming online. And so more data centers, more GPUs sitting in warehouses as opposed to.

• 8:54Speaker 01

  The craziest thing to me is how little attention it's getting that Prop 40 didn't pass. Like Prop 40, as it was written, was going to destroy the model for building technology companies in California. Like I, a bunch of people on our show that have come on our show are like paper billionaires.

• 9:12Speaker 00

  Sure. Oh, yeah.

• 9:13Speaker 01

  If that would have passed, of course, it would have been litigated. It wasn't like, you know, on November 4th, go to your bank and get a, get a cashier's check for, you know, $50 million and go bring it in. But Californians like resoundingly voted against it, right? I think, and I, I think that there were, again, a lot of flaws with the way it was written. There was a lot of incentive for different groups that would normally be in favor of, of a tax like that to actually be against it because they weren't going to benefit from it directly. But. Be a pretty, uh, pretty good, good outcome there.

• 9:49Speaker 00

  The biggest loser in the California election are the, the jealous senties who are trying to nerf their bean air opponents, right?

• 9:57Speaker 01

  Potentially.

• 9:58Speaker 00

  So somebody sitting on $400 million, they're getting money mogged, uh, when they pull up to the private

• 10:04Speaker 01

  And so, yeah, the 4D chess there was, was, they were, they were spending heavily on.

• 10:09Speaker 00

  I want to back up the truck to try and nerf my, my rivals potentially, but bad news for them because it didn't pass. Ben Thompson, second take, NeoClouds are on the edge. They've been at the forefront of the credit concerns from a credit, from a certain perspective, being unable to build data centers has a silver lining in that they couldn't get the money to pay for them anyways. Moreover, NeoCloud's facilities that are already permitted now have an asset that is going to be scarcer than expected. Um, which is a very, very interesting, and I think every, every data center, uh, project will need to be reevaluated. Like what is the status of Stargate and, and what's happening in, in Abilene in Texas? Is all of that permitted and the moratorium will just be on new capacity?

• 10:50Speaker 00

  Because the Stargate pitch was enormous, an enormous campus. And I believe a lot of that was already approved and, and, and good to go. So, um, new moratoriums wouldn't reach back to that. So that still would come online. So that could be very bullish for anyone who's involved in that. At the same time, there's, there's a hard scenario if you're a, if you're a NeoCloud that has built a bunch of data centers, but then you sold all your compute on long contracts. So you're not taking advantage of the spot market being in cantango and, and being able to sell at higher rates each month after month, uh, to, you know, labs that need compute more than ever. So you're, you're, you've sort of reaped all the reward on your first build. You need to go build a new building, a new data center, and now you can't.

• 11:35Speaker 00

  And so you can't bring new capacity online that you can sell into the spot market and, and make more money on. Uh, so that's a little bit tricky. There is a, just a tough dynamic for some of the NeoClouds where a lot of them have incredibly talented people that can go and build things, but they just might not have enough money to finance them. And now they might not have enough political power to get them across the finish line. Although there are clearly some states, some areas in the country that are receptive. And they, it's not that they, like, North Dakota is getting called out as a, as a, as a state that denied a data center ban, right? But what we're not talking about is the states that didn't even have them on the menu, right? And there are a number of states that have been receptive and continue to be receptive to the point where they haven't even had legislation to ban data centers.

• 12:18Speaker 01

  To me, it's great, it's great data for technology industry to like comb through and look at where, where people are more favorable to data centers and go build them there.

• 12:30Speaker 00

  Yep.

• 12:30Speaker 01

  Or at least try to, right? There's going to be some areas where they're pro data center that have, uh, problems getting access to energy, right? And, and, and other issues that they run into, but, um, they don't all have to go to space just yet.

• 12:43Speaker 00

  The energy, I think, is, is less of a factor. I think natural gas is pretty abundant, but you still have to build pipelines around it. And then, uh, the big thing is just like the overall infrastructure. Like, do you have big roads? Do you have the ability to move big, uh, materials around while you're in that construction phase? Uh, there are certain parts of America where even just building a house is hard because you're on dirt roads and, and that's tricky. So, um, anyway, uh, you, you can see some of the NeoCloud reshuffling happening in the market today. Uh, Ben Thompson says hyperscalers are winners. The downside for the NeoClouds, upside for hyperscalers.

• 13:18Speaker 01

  They needed that.

• 13:19Speaker 00

  Yeah, Jeff Bezos is doing well. Amazon's way up today. Uh, they are more likely to grow their share of AI compute than they were before. Moreover, investors may be pleased if the hyperscalers ambitions are somewhat curtailed. So investors are like, oh, okay, maybe you'll be able to bring the dividend back or return some cash. You're not gonna, you're not gonna need to tap the deck markets because you won't have anywhere to invest it. This could be something that investors are excited about. Uh, political opposition is an excuse to moderate spending. This is the 4D chess I was joking about with Joe Weisenthal, which all of a sudden is being taken very seriously. I was kind of riffing with him and, and now I've seen a number of people put that, uh, in writing as like their official take that this is good. Um, and we'll see it, we'll see how it plays out, uh, for Nvidia.

• 14:02Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think nothing is ever as good or bad as it seems.

• 14:05Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 14:05Speaker 01

  Sort of an iron law.

• 14:06Speaker 00

  Nothing ever happens, things happen.

• 14:08Speaker 01

  No, nothing ever happens, but.

• 14:10Speaker 00

  No, that's a good point, yeah.

• 14:12Speaker 01

  Uh, one thing, you know, is, um, we got a report from, from a friend who was walking up and down Sand Hill Road this morning.

• 14:19Speaker 00

  Oh, yeah.

• 14:20Speaker 01

  And, uh, they sent a clip, they heard this song, uh, playing.

• 14:25Speaker 00

  This was playing outside of the venture capital.

• 14:27Speaker 01

  It was playing inside, but it was booming so loudly.

• 14:29Speaker 00

  The windows, yeah, sort of sorrowful moment on Sand Hill.

• 14:35Speaker 01

  They have to delete some tweets.

• 14:36Speaker 00

  Delete some tweets potentially. This is of course the song from the W, is it actually the WWE documentary or is it just overly?

• 14:47Speaker 01

  I think it's just become a, I think it's just become a meme.

• 14:49Speaker 00

  Okay.

• 14:50Speaker 01

  Wonderful, wonderful song called Maintaining Love.

• 14:53Speaker 00

  Yeah, that's going to go in the heavy rotation. I've been listening to more and more meme core on Spotify. I got Queen Street, the heavy rotation.

• 15:01Speaker 01

  Full brain rot.

• 15:01Speaker 00

  Yeah, brain rot. Ben says Nvidia mixed bag, uh, almost certainly a short-term loser. Fewer data centers mean fewer Nvidia chips. Um, but the long-term bull case for Nvidia is that if there's a set amount of data centers that exist and you can't build that anymore, you have to get the most tokens per watt, you need to be.

• 15:20Speaker 01

  The most efficient chip.

• 15:22Speaker 00

  Yeah, he has a, he has a phrase for that. I forget what it's called. Uh, uh, it's, it's, it's something good here, uh, making this point. ISO power means that power is the constraint. And so you already have power going to a building, but you're running some older technology, some older chips. There's now more of an incentive to upgrade those to the latest and greatest to get the most out of, uh, a particular power envelope. So.

• 15:46Speaker 01

  There's a real, uh, mask off moment from, uh, Harley over at Shopify.

• 15:51Speaker 00

  Oh, yeah.

• 15:52Speaker 01

  He said, you know, US voters just rejected data centers everywhere they got the chance. That investment has to land somewhere, clean hydro, open land, cold winters. That's Canada. This is a massive opportunity for us, generational.

• 16:07Speaker 00

  Oh, so we're saying the data centers will go there?

• 16:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's hoping, he's hoping.

• 16:10Speaker 00

  I, I, I thought it was just the dollars would fund, would, would flow into.

• 16:13Speaker 01

  No, no, no. And I, and I'm joking, of course, of course, he's proudly based in, in Canada. Matt Spoke says, tonight, Canada was given an opportunity to become the data center capital of North America. This is how Canada wins in AI.

• 16:25Speaker 00

  I love it. Seems like there's lots of, lots of room up there. I don't know, you need the infrastructure, but, uh, probably easier with cooling and, uh, plenty of energy. So, uh, for sure, do it. Uh, the fifth point from Ben Thompson, advantage China, says China is in the inverse scenario. Uh, the country has plenty of power, the ability to build a lot more. They don't have leading edge chips, but they've been investing in that. And I think this is the, this is the, uh, the broader discussion that will emerge is, okay, if we actually slow down our build, how real is the competition with China? It's been something that's been sort of the, uh, it's been fear mongered about a little bit in the, in the AI debate. A lot of AI, can't we just slow down?

• 17:06Speaker 00

  If we're worried about capabilities, if we're worried about AI safety, can't we just slow down? All of those devolve into, well, we'll lose to China, China will catch up. Uh, we're now approaching that scenario, but we'll see what happens on the other side and, and how we actually react to this. And, and how much the build out actually slows down. Like, it could be, uh, just, okay, we got to build in different states. We got to build in some other, some other areas. There's nothing that really changes in terms of.

• 17:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, take, take him, shared, uh, some highlights. He says, re-Texas governor election, let's take a deep breath. Can we all take a deep breath?

• 17:44Speaker 01

  If companies ask for no subsidies, promise a ton of union jobs and guarantee that water and electricity costs won't rise, plus add supply, data centers can be built under her governorship. This is directly from Gina's website. Kino Hosa outlined her Texans first data center priorities for the next legislative session, which Abbott could call today. Requiring American union jobs, giving Texans a seat at the table to decide if and how data centers come to their communities. And again, like, I think that there's clearly a lot of reasons why a data center, why a community would want. Like, I look at places like Midland where you land in Midland and you're just like in the middle of, the middle of nowhere.

• 18:47Speaker 01

  But there's oil fields and there's billions of dollars of wealth creation. And there's like, you know, kind of rough, but amazingly well-paying jobs. And it's, it's probably a trade that certain communities would make again in a different context.

• 19:00Speaker 00

  Elon is, is, uh, is, uh, taking the victory lap, I guess, saying data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now. He's like, it was all part of the plan.

• 19:10Speaker 01

  He's probably thinking, space is, seems pretty appealing for me right now.

• 19:13Speaker 00

  Yeah, exactly. Uh, but, uh, you know, you know who else might benefit in a, in a, uh, in a build out freeze on, in America on land? Uh, Panthalassa, remember that company?

• 19:26Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 19:27Speaker 00

  Ocean data centers, we got to cultivate ocean power. I love that company. It's a huge, huge bobbing data center in the ocean that circles Antarctica. And it just bobs up and down using tidal energy. Such a cool project, uh, incredibly difficult. It's like a true mega project. You got to use a crane to move anything around just to get, build these things. But, uh, certainly more near term than, uh, getting into space. Although the, the SpaceX team seems like they're firing on all cylinders. Uh, Starship, they're going to try and catch it on the next one. So like the next Starship launch is like the one to go see.

• 20:07Speaker 00

  Cause they're going to send it up, it's going to come down, they're going to try and catch it with Mechazilla, I think is the name of the, the chopsticks. So the results are in, data center moratoria went 43 to one. That was the final score, 43 to one. All hyperscalers must now converge on Harwood, North Dakota, the one outlier. If you're in construction or real estate, get to Harwood, North Dakota. Start picking up land, go to the gas pump, fill up your tank, do whatever you can to get power in North Dakota.

• 20:39Speaker 01

  We've talked about merch for so long, but I needed to be able to prove to everyone that it's actually happening. It's going to be next week. What day did I say it was going to be, when's the launch date? I think it's, uh,

• 20:53Speaker 01

  I think it's Thursday, the 12th. The 12th, we are launching the merch store. And this will be available as well as a bunch of other stuff. Very excited.

• 21:05Speaker 00

  Okay, is Idaho actually voting on a state gun?

• 21:08Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 21:08Speaker 00

  This is real. I mean, you, everyone knows they have state.

• 21:10Speaker 01

  What was the result?

• 21:11Speaker 00

  State bird, state flower. I guess the result.

• 21:14Speaker 01

  It was the, I think Winchester model 1873 rifle.

• 21:17Speaker 00

  Okay, the Winchester 1873 rifle. Interesting. Well, fun for them. Funny that, uh, that, that, we saw someone posting about that. Somebody endorsed it in their voters guide. And in that post, they said it was satirical that they were just joking around. But I guess they were just joking about them actually making a recommendation, but it was in fact on the ballot.

• 21:38Speaker 01

  Maybe they were joking because like everyone knows that it's the Winchester. And so it's not like you really need a vote.

• 21:44Speaker 00

  Wow, it's like a little ball knower.

• 21:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 21:45Speaker 00

  Yeah, we got caught out, not, not knowing.

• 21:48Speaker 01

  They had to do a vote, but everyone in Idaho knows.

• 21:51Speaker 00

  Yeah, obviously, obviously. Uh, we talked about Cauchy and Polymarket. Joe Weisenthal agrees. Huge win for prediction markets. My only, my, my only take from last night, both in the run up to the vote and on election night. The prediction markets did exactly what they were supposed to do. A big, confident forecast in the run up and incredibly timely conveying the data as it dropped. Nick Carter agrees. Prediction markets were spot on last night. Let's move over to what else is in the journal today. Uh, because we got a new term, a new coinage. Are you excited for this?

• 22:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 22:24Speaker 00

  Fogo. You've heard of FOMO, fear of missing out. Now you need to learn about Fogo, the fear of getting obliterated in the market.

• 22:33Speaker 01

  I wish that, uh, Bain Capital had come up with this one.

• 22:37Speaker 00

  Why?

• 22:38Speaker 01

  Don't they own Fogo de Chao?

• 22:39Speaker 00

  Oh, they do. Yes. So, uh, hedge fund Elliott warns of Fogo, fear of getting obliterated in the market. The $80 billion hedge fund firm posted flat returns in the third quarter and under a 2% gain this year through September. And that is almost impressive, given how much gyration there's been. You know, there's been people that have been absolutely printing, uh, just being like long tech or something like that. And then there's other been, there's been hedge fund blowups and over leverages and all sorts of stuff. But Paul Singers, Elliott Investment Management compared the current state of the markets laden with debt fueled risk taking and bubbling with hype over new technologies to the roaring twenties that preceded the Great Depression.

• 23:23Speaker 00

  At present, virtually every alarm bell warning of a substantial bear market ahead is ringing. The $80 billion hedge fund firm wrote in an October investor letter reviewed by the Wall Street Journal. While Elliott is prepping for potentially historic upheaval, its performance is lagging behind the broader hedge fund industry. Elliott's returns were flat in the first three months, ending September 30th, leaving its gains for the last nine months a little under 2% according to the letter. That trails a composite hedge fund index as well as the nearly 13% total return of the S and P 500 from the same gain. And even index, uh, even short-term treasury bills were doing 3%. So they're underperforming treasuries. Uh, so are they being too cautious or are they, you know, seeing the future here?

• 24:07Speaker 00

  Elliott's quarterly letters are known for their doom and gloom commentary on the dominant themes of the day. Blackpilling hedge fund, just blackpilling in every letter. Um, its October message highlighted risks building in US budget deficits, persistent inflation, private credit portfolios and artificial intelligence hype. And it warned about market distortions caused by factors it said were more akin to gambling than investing, including, including traders using zero day options and betting on meme stocks, which they have come up against. Because of course Elliott is the, the famous hedge fund that went up against Wall Street bets in the Robin Hood GameStop saga. Uh, Singer and Jonathan Pollak, the firm's two chief executives and chief investment officers run

• 24:51Speaker 00

  one of the hedge fund industry's largest pools of capital. And a lot of people were assuming that Elliott would be, uh, completely destroyed by that saga. In fact, they closed their position. I think Ken Griffin helped out and they've done well because they've scaled the firm since that saga. And a lot of people were like, it's over for them. And that was kind of the way they were depicted in that movie, if I'm not incorrect.

• 25:12Speaker 01

  Elliott didn't buy a bunch of like NeoCloud stocks like a six weeks ago. They didn't, right?

• 25:16Speaker 00

  I, I don't know.

• 25:17Speaker 01

  Hopefully not, because that could be, that could be.

• 25:20Speaker 00

  NeoCloud are in a tough spot.

• 25:22Speaker 01

  Obliteration scenario.

• 25:23Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 25:25Speaker 00

  Currently, they wrote, they're focused on preserving their capital and being ready to strike if the market runs into turmoil. Over Elliott's five decade existence, fallow periods have existed, but these have historically been accompanied by market turbulence and followed by periods of rare opportunities. Our goal is to be well positioned, protected on the downside and with capital to deploy into the bargains when the tide turns again. In the third quarter, Elliott's unprofitable sectors included distressed debt and portfolio hedges related to gold currencies, stocks and interest rates. Its profitable sectors included commodities, arbitrage and portfolio hedges related to credit. The firm sees opportunities in activist investing, in healthcare companies, producing energy opportunities, and eventually buying from forced sellers in dislocated credit markets. Fogo, fear of getting obliterated.

• 26:10Speaker 00

  The actual quote here from the letter, so many factors have lined up to cause this great boom that it might take disruption in only one or two of them to shift this momentum into reverse, leading to a cascading self-reinforcing unwind of this bull market and an abrupt change from FOMO to Fogo, fear of getting obliterated. So FOMO drives the market upward. Everyone thinks, ah, I gotta get in. I just saw somebody print a 3X on Nvidia, 10X on Micron. I gotta get in. I don't want to miss out. Fogo, if everyone's getting blown up, doesn't matter what you're in, you're going to sell your dollars, sell your gold, sell your crypto, sell everything. That's what they're worried about. So some blackpilling. Uh, Ferrari lifts guidance again on strong demand for car customizations.

• 26:54Speaker 00

  Fear of missing out is back in force over at Ferrari. The company's order book now reaches into 2028. That's Tesla Roadster competition territory because the Roadster is not shipped until 2028. But some of these Ferrari tailor maids are going out to 2028. Uh, Ferrari again lifted its full year guidance slightly as demand for car customizations remain strong and deliveries of newer models is ramped up in the third quarter. The Italian luxury sports carmaker said Tuesday that it expects revenue of around 8.56 billion this year, up from a previous estimate of around 7.6 billion euros. It forecasts adjusted earnings up, uh, to 2.29 billion euros. Margins are at 30%.

• 27:39Speaker 00

  They're going up. Uh, the company said it was benefiting from stronger personalization than initially expected. Lower currency headwinds and newer, more profitable models. Deliveries of our F80 supercar and personalizations led by the Ferrari 296 Speciale family support our robust financial growth. Our order book now reaches into 2028 and we still have two more launches to come. It shipped 3,368 vehicles to customers this quarter, 33 fewer than a year earlier, but I'm sure the average price is up. Anyway, the European Union is downgrading art market money laundering risk despite heists? What is going on here?

• 28:20Speaker 01

  They're downgrading it.

• 28:21Speaker 00

  They're downgrade, to downgrade art market.

• 28:23Speaker 01

  They're like, don't worry about it.

• 28:24Speaker 00

  Money laundering risk despite heists. Okay, so European Commission.

• 28:28Speaker 01

  It's all good.

• 28:28Speaker 00

  Experts cite limited EU evidence linking high-profile museum thefts to criminal networks. So they're like one offs? They're just, uh, people taking, uh, their sticky fingers that can't resist sticky fingers. That's a great euphemism. The European Commission is planning to downgrade the risk of money laundering and terrorist financing, financing in the art market, even as a spate of high-profile museum heists across Europe put the spotlight of, on crime in the sector. So few high-profile cases, but maybe not systemic. Uh, minutes of a January 2026 meeting, that was a long time ago, show the commission's forthcoming super, super national, supranational risk assessment

• 29:09Speaker 00

  will downgrade the threat of money laundering and terrorist financing in the art market and antiques trade from high to moderate compared with its 2022 assessment. I wonder if, uh, some of this is just like the crowding out effect from criminals going to, to crypto and cyber heists. You know, you see the new obliterated model and you're like, what am I doing, planning a heist?

• 29:29Speaker 01

  Why, why am I going to go spend a bunch of time?

• 29:32Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 29:32Speaker 01

  In museums with sticky fingers.

• 29:34Speaker 00

  When I could just fire off prompt and.

• 29:35Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 29:35Speaker 00

  And clean up on, on Binance or something. Who knows? Uh, the, the, the commission's financial market director recommended downgrading the risk, citing limited EU evidence linking such thefts to money laundering and, or terrorist financing, despite acknowledging persistent vulnerabilities due to opacity and anonymity in the sector. One art expert said the moderate classification was still too high. So someone in the art market is like, we gotta send this thing down. It's not risky at all.

• 30:03Speaker 01

  We gotta, we gotta investigate that guy.

• 30:05Speaker 00

  Yeah, what is he doing? What is he doing?

• 30:08Speaker 01

  Uh, in other news, Tyler, how do you pronounce Y O Y growth?

• 30:14Speaker 02

  Yeah, Yoi growth.

• 30:15Speaker 00

  Yoi growth.

• 30:16Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 30:17Speaker 00

  Yoi.

• 30:19Speaker 01

  Low yield. Lucy says new hire just pronounce year-over-year growth like Yoi.

• 30:23Speaker 00

  Yoi.

• 30:24Speaker 01

  Which I think we should all adopt. Amazing. Well, we're gonna have, you're gonna close out the show with us.

• 30:29Speaker 00

  We always.

• 30:29Speaker 01

  Oh, wow. We're gonna do something that you may not have seen. It's called a flashbang.

• 30:34Speaker 00

  On TBN.com. See you tomorrow.