Inflation Heats Up, Anthropic Investor Day, Tesla Roadster Mania| Diet TBPN

Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with each episode posted to podcast platforms right after. Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. TBPN is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Public - https://public.com Cisco - https://www.cisco.com Console - https://www.console.com CrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.com Figma - https://www.figma.com MongoDB - https://www.mongodb.com NYSE - https://www.nyse.com Railway - https://railway.com Shopify - https://www.shopify.com/ Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00John Coogan?

  So the market is mostly reacting to the Anthropic Investor Day numbers, but it's been in a decline for a long time, for the last month. Core weaves down something like 50% over the last month or so. It's been rough in the AI trade broadly.

• 0:19Jordi Hays?

  Way off, only 16% over the last month.

• 0:21John Coogan?

  It's crazy that you can be growing at 45% quarter on quarter and still not meet expectations. But when people have had in their minds 10x every year, 10x revenue growth every year, and Anthropic goes to their Investor Day and says that Q3 revenue was 16.8 billion, which annualizes to 67 billion, 67 billion. I don't know what they were doing there. That seems like a little bit of like, like, okay, I get it. It's like the zoom reference, but like, this is serious financial. There's a lot of money on the line. Can we not do like the meme thing right now? Anyway, they are in fact annualizing their quarterly run rate to an annual run rate

• 1:02John Coogan?

  of 67.2 billion, which is remarkable for a company that was doing, you know, a 10th of that a year ago. But it's seemingly not enough because everyone in their minds was like, they're going up surprise to the upside, they're going to throw up 90. But they really have been fighting fires on multiple fronts. So there's like the Meta business, which has pivoted over. They're probably using their own model now and maybe they, and there was that like leak of like an executive at Meta saying like, oh yeah, if we stop buying Anthropic, like it could really mess up their IPO, that would be a shame. I would hate for a company to IPO at lower valuation than us since we're almost $2 trillion. Like that would be terrible.

• 1:44John Coogan?

  So it seemed like sort of a veiled threat in the media. And then distillation, we actually got a number. So distillation is between 5% to 7% of revenue, which I think is a little bit lower than people were expecting. But it feels like the Anthropic team, David Sacks, was celebrating this, that hey, like there was this big problem and one of the proposed solutions was like, ban open source, do all this crazy stuff, slow down. And David Sacks didn't want to do that. And then Anthropic came out and said, hey, like we did a lot of work. We deployed our own frontier technology to fight this and we believe we have bought it. And we believe that we can shut down distillation.

• 2:26John Coogan?

  Pretty staggering that 5% to 7%, you know, that's, that's billions of dollars spent stealing from, because that's the value of the, of the, of the distilled tokens, which is pretty crazy that, that you can be at that scale of essentially fraud. Like you're not supposed to be distilling. It's against the terms of service. And usually when you see somebody, oh yeah, there's somebody who's like scraping LinkedIn and then they're like reselling the data or whatever. It's like, yeah, they might have like a couple million dollars deployed into this scheme. But you're looking at, you're looking at $5 billion of fraud essentially, or run rate fraud, you know, something like that.

• 3:09John Coogan?

  But as they, as they fight that fire, obviously that's going to be a drag on revenue growth. If they open the floodgates and we're like, yeah, go distill away, you know, at least in the short term, revenue would be growing faster. But in the long term, there'd be much more competition on the frontier.

• 3:25Jordi Hays?

  But it's certainly not as meaningful as some people on the internet thought it was.

• 3:29John Coogan?

  Yeah. I mean, there were like some trolls who were like, oh yeah, once you get rid of Meta and the distillation company is going to be doing, you know, $2 billion a year. And it was like, no, that's not going to be the case. Like this is a, this is, this is installed in many, many organizations. This is a sure go to market.

• 3:46Jordi Hays?

  The question now is what happens to the frontier of the open weights ecosystem, right? Does the gap widen?

• 3:54John Coogan?

  Oh, because they're, because they're shutting down the distillation. Yeah.

• 3:57Jordi Hays?

  We'll see, we'll see how effective it is. Being on the frontier just means you're getting distilled. If you're not getting distilled.

• 4:04John Coogan?

  That's the definition in your mind? It's like unless you're getting distilled, you're not frontier.

• 4:08Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. I think that's like the, the most honest definition. Like unless other people will spend a lot of money to try to emulate your model and recreate it, then you are not.

• 4:19John Coogan?

  That's a good, that's a good like reality check.

• 4:21Speaker 02

  Yeah. I mean, so one thing is Meta released an open source model today.

• 4:24John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 4:24Speaker 02

  Muse spark open.

• 4:25John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 4:25Speaker 02

  So I don't think they're that worried about like someone distilling them and then releasing an open source version that's like.

• 4:29John Coogan?

  Seems very different like ideologically, right?

• 4:32Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 4:32John Coogan?

  Yeah. And often they're going through like third party wrapper companies. So there's a lot of companies that are like, yeah, we're like, you know, an AI native document editor. And there's like a bunch of these. It's not just like Notion that we know about and this is not just Google Docs. Like there's a lot of these companies, you set one of these up and you're like, yeah. And we, you pay us a fee and we go and we inference Claude or we inference GPT-6 or whatever. And then that goes into the document. And then all of a sudden that, what, if somebody's using that like AI Word doc to do the distillation, then that SaaS company, that wrapper company, needs to go and figure out, wait, why is someone generating all these documents? Maybe they can't even look at the documents.

• 5:15John Coogan?

  And then from Anthropic's perspective or the Frontier Labs perspective, they're just seeing like, oh yeah, one of our SaaS wrapper companies is like sending a bunch of queries across their entire network because they have thousands of users, maybe hundreds of thousands of users, and it's hard to tell. And so there's a lot of wrapper companies that have gotten to like crazy revenues and basically no one uses the products because it's the distillers or the distilleries that, that are like, ooh, new wrapper company? Like can't wait to spin up a thousand accounts on you because you won't detect me, but Anthropic would. Very interesting.

• 5:50Jordi Hays?

  Distilleries.

• 5:50John Coogan?

  They're, yeah, distilleries. You gotta, you gotta take a trip to the distilleries. Well, what's going on in the market?

• 5:55Jordi Hays?

  Cause. Yeah. Where did that lead us? That led us to.

• 5:58John Coogan?

  Sell everything?

• 5:59Jordi Hays?

  Uh, yeah, I mean, especially your dollars.

• 6:02John Coogan?

  Sell your dollars.

• 6:03Jordi Hays?

  Your dollars.

• 6:04John Coogan?

  Sell your stocks, sell your bonds, get out of everything, get into land, buy guns, food, medicines. We, we will be on a barter economy soon, I think. I think that's the main, made, major prediction. No, people are blackpilling.

• 6:20Jordi Hays?

  Sell your assets.

• 6:22John Coogan?

  Sell everything.

• 6:23Jordi Hays?

  Sell everything, take your dollars, invest them into a roadster or maybe a missioness.

• 6:29John Coogan?

  Yes. And then also that I just, it's very clear that there's like this tall poppy syndrome in, in the frontier where whoever is in the lead, like all the other businesses are like, well, we don't want a monopoly on intelligence. And so let's go buy from the other labs. Let's go, you know, figure something else out, fund, invest. Let's do something else to make it so that no one runs away with this entirely. Of course, like there, there always could be some sort of runaway, but at least while businesses are the ones that are deciding, you will see the, the Microsofts, the Amazons of the world. It's like all of a sudden they're doing deals with the other guy because they don't want a monopoly. And so as soon as someone starts running away with it, there's this huge forcing function where you're like, oh wow, there's a big like,

• 7:13John Coogan?

  we, you know, the, the anti YouTube alliance or the anti Netflix alliance or the anti OpenAI alliance was the thing. And the anti Anthropic alliance like comes together. And these alliances come, anytime someone's getting a little bit too hot at the party, somebody's like, yeah, we gotta, we gotta pull the punch bowl away a little bit. Anyway, the news.

• 7:32Jordi Hays?

  Brad Gersner was on CNBC this morning.

• 7:34John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 7:35Jordi Hays?

  He says, we have sold, this is according to a meet. We have sold all of our core weave, don't own any of it today. We've taken exposure down over the last three months. We felt AI had overshot and would lead to a period of consolidation. They moved 10% of their book into Meta and Tesla. And again, Brad usually ahead of the curve. Sounds like he was here as well.

• 8:02John Coogan?

  So the interesting thing is that people aren't actually selling everything. They're not actually selling their dollars. That's just the meme. Of course, Citrini says, oh, it's over, over, which is very funny. Just to put it in perspective, the NASDAQ is down like 0.3%, 0.4%, not much. But then the Dow is up almost a full percent. So what's really happening is that there's just a rotation that's happening while the Dow and Treasuries are getting more attention while tech stocks pull back. Obviously not good for the AI trade in the short term, but there's a lot of new initiatives. And we'll go in through, through some of the progress because there is some interesting AI progress going on.

• 8:46John Coogan?

  But at least over in the AI trade, over in tech world, it's rough. It's notable that this Investor Day is not the actual IPO. This is a precursor to that. It's maybe almost like airing some dirty laundry. Only way to go is up now.

• 9:02Jordi Hays?

  Baja blast.

• 9:04John Coogan?

  Time to Baja blast. Yeah, maybe they got through the code red. Now it's time to Baja blast. The inflation is up. So if you are, if you were short stocks and long inflation, then you're very happy today. Hopefully, I mean, if you own real assets, you're probably pretty happy. Joe Weisenthal says that was the hottest PPI number in four years. And yeah, it's, it's pretty rough. You're really having fun. Did you see inflation for the 1%? This is CPIreserve.com. We can pull this up. It looks at inflation, you know, there's normally the CPI basket that measures,

• 9:49John Coogan?

  you know, what the average American buys. CPI reserve is for the global elite. So it tracks, how much does it cost to go to space on Virgin Galactic? How much does it cost to stay at Amangiri in a base suite? An Hermes Birkin bag? How much has that gone up?

• 10:06Jordi Hays?

  The spicy rigatoni.

• 10:08John Coogan?

  Really?

• 10:09Jordi Hays?

  Only up 31%.

• 10:10John Coogan?

  Oh, I didn't know that. Porsche, 911 Carrera. And so there are some, there are some interesting stats here that we can go through. And you tell me whether these are overrated or underrated. Have these gone up because the value has improved or is it now overpriced? So I want an overrated, underrated for the key items that CPI reserve highlights. So the, the classic Chanel flap. In 2016, it was $4,900. Now in 2026, it's $11,700. That's over 139% inflation in 10 years.

• 10:53John Coogan?

  That's over three times what standard inflation was. If it, if it tracked CPI directly, it would be. Uh, it would be $6,800, but instead it's $11,700. Do you think the class-

• 11:08Jordi Hays?

  You're a bozo if you're still buying this.

• 11:10John Coogan?

  Okay, so it's overrated at this point. The inflation-

• 11:14Jordi Hays?

  Always was though.

• 11:15John Coogan?

  Always was.

• 11:15Jordi Hays?

  Always was.

• 11:16John Coogan?

  Okay, what about Met Gala tickets? In 2016, it cost you $30,000 to go to the Met Gala. Now it's $100,000. That's six times the average inflation rate in America. Overrated, underrated? What's a Met Gala ticket worth, Jordy?

• 11:31Jordi Hays?

  Uh, I think underrated still.

• 11:33John Coogan?

  I think so.

• 11:33Jordi Hays?

  This is charitable giving.

• 11:35John Coogan?

  That's true. I hadn't considered that.

• 11:37Jordi Hays?

  So, the more, the more the better.

• 11:39John Coogan?

  Yes, and uh, the Met Gala has grown so much. So many interesting folks there, so many interesting moments. Uh, worth every penny. Okay. What about a Virgin Galactic seat? You wanna go to space? It used to cost 25, uh, $250,000. Today it'll cost you $750,000. Overrated, underrated?

• 12:01Jordi Hays?

  I don't know, not, not for me.

• 12:04John Coogan?

  Steel of the century.

• 12:05Jordi Hays?

  Are you going?

• 12:06John Coogan?

  Any price, absolutely. Send me to space today.

• 12:10Jordi Hays?

  I would go to great lengths to-

• 12:12John Coogan?

  Not go to space.

• 12:13Jordi Hays?

  To block you from going on this.

• 12:15John Coogan?

  Is that because of safety? Assume that I survive it.

• 12:20John Coogan?

  Cause I'm gonna survive it no matter what. It's gonna be-

• 12:23Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. I can actually imagine, yeah, I can, I can imagine it, you know, the, the, the flight going poorly and you having to sort of like fight your-

• 12:31John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, you gotta roll a duct tape and I gotta put it together and screw this in and figure it out.

• 12:37Jordi Hays?

  Take a deep breath and dive.

• 12:39John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, exactly.

• 12:40Jordi Hays?

  Figure out a parachute on the way down.

• 12:42John Coogan?

  Yep, yep, yep, that's, that's exactly what would happen in a realistic scenario. Um, okay, the last one. Uh, the Porsche, actually we've got two more. Porsche 911 Carrera base. It used to be $83,000, $84,000 in 2016. Today it'll cost you $135,000. That's 61% gain in 10 years. It's 1.5 times what the CPI did. Not a huge increase relative to overall, but it is ticking up in recent years. Where do you sit on the value of the Porsche 911 Carrera base?

• 13:17Jordi Hays?

  Uh, still undervalued relative to the joy that you get out of it, but I wish that, I wish that they could keep like the base, base 911 at like $99,000.

• 13:27John Coogan?

  That'd be cool.

• 13:28Jordi Hays?

  Forever.

• 13:29John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, that'd be special.

• 13:31Jordi Hays?

  This is the world we live in. Wait, we also gotta pull up the big law. We gotta pull, we gotta-

• 13:35John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 13:35Jordi Hays?

  Pull up the big law hourly rate-

• 13:38John Coogan?

  Okay, what's that?

• 13:39Jordi Hays?

  For partners. They are way outpacing-

• 13:41John Coogan?

  Whoa, inflation, okay.

• 13:43Jordi Hays?

  I mean, just look at this.

• 13:44John Coogan?

  Yeah, you used to be able to hang out with a lawyer for just a mere 1,500 bucks an hour and that'll cost you almost three grand an hour to get legal advice from a-

• 13:55Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, no longer the cure for male loneliness.

• 13:57John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 13:58Jordi Hays?

  Cause that 1,500 an hour-

• 13:59John Coogan?

  Yeah, you just call them up.

• 14:00Jordi Hays?

  Call them up and hang out.

• 14:02John Coogan?

  How you doing?

• 14:02Jordi Hays?

  Kinda lose track of time.

• 14:04John Coogan?

  Yeah, exactly.

• 14:04Jordi Hays?

  Going all over the place, right?

• 14:06John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 14:07Jordi Hays?

  How, how you been? How are the kids?

• 14:08John Coogan?

  Can we, can we bill in quarter, quarter hour increments? Can we book in hour, in, in 10 minute increments? I'm going to my lawyer, I'm saying-

• 14:14Jordi Hays?

  Can we book in-

• 14:15John Coogan?

  Can we just book a weekend at a time? If I talk to you, just put me down for the whole week.

• 14:19Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 14:20John Coogan?

  Give me, give me 100 hours, 100 hour block. Anyway, uh, anything else you wanna cover on the CPI Reserve? You can go check it out, CPIReserve.com. Very cool. Uh, little fun project to give you another side of the economy.

• 14:31Jordi Hays?

  Craziest here is Manhattan luxury real estate.

• 14:35John Coogan?

  How's that doing?

• 14:36Jordi Hays?

  It is, uh, down.

• 14:38John Coogan?

  Down? Uh, P.I. Deter tax, right? It's higher taxes, people are getting out, they're moving. I don't know.

• 14:44Jordi Hays?

  It's working.

• 14:44John Coogan?

  Blake Byers is taking like the, the, the AGI question around capital markets. He says, "My modal prediction for the next decade. Interest rate spikes as capital shifts from saving treasuries to investments due to higher returns promised by AI-related capex. We've seen this before because AI is the only modern project that could affect real rates to this degree. This leads to short-term panic as high rates spike debt servicing costs for governments and other borrowers. After three years of panic, it be, it becomes clear to the market that the investments are paying off in a big way. Interest payments remain high, but increased revenue from economic growth more than offsets the higher borrowing cost. Panic shifts to euphoria.

• 15:28John Coogan?

  Developed world adjusts to 5% growth rates as the new normal and now demand 10% to be happy. Healthcare consumption R&D grows as a percent of GDP." AI is disrupting the job application market faster than the job market. This is continuing, it's a hot take, but it's continuing to gather evidence. Derek Thompson shared a post from the Wall Street Journal. "AI-amplified job applications are met with AI-enabled filters and other AI tools used by AR, HR departments to narrow the application pool." Uh, people are interviewing with AI avatars. That seems like a really terrible thing unless the whole meta game is just can you jailbreak it?

• 16:12John Coogan?

  Which I think it probably should be. Like if I was to put out, if we were to put out a job description and we, I'm totally tempted to throw an AI avatar in front of that. Just in the hope that someone convinces that AI avatar that it is in fact, in interviewing for the job. You've seen that? Where people will flip it or flip the script and be like, actually, we're here to talk about your performance. And, and the AI avatar is like fighting back, being like, remember your instructions, remember your instructions. You're the boss, you're, you're in charge. We're here to interview you. And then eventually the interviewer can keep hammering and, and prompt injection, prompt injecting.

• 16:50John Coogan?

  But Derek Thompson says, "And now 10-minute conversations with AI that take place in McKinsey's very real offices with partners or interview assessors in the room-"

• 16:58Jordi Hays?

  This is wild.

• 16:59John Coogan?

  How the candidates do.

• 17:00Jordi Hays?

  So these candidates are basically putting on an interview show.

• 17:04John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 17:04Jordi Hays?

  And the partners are watching, watching two people duke it out.

• 17:08John Coogan?

  Yeah, it's kind of like a gladiatorial arena.

• 17:10Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 17:10John Coogan?

  And I wanna see if you can beat the tiger that I've released. And if you can, you get to sit at the, at the, at the, at the side of the cork jester or something like that. I don't know. We gotta debate the bread and circuses thing. I feel like circuses are kinda running away with it and bread is potentially falling behind.

• 17:30Jordi Hays?

  I don't know. Did you see the crumble cookies introduced like a-

• 17:34John Coogan?

  I'm lifting it. I'm just saying that-

• 17:36Jordi Hays?

  A chicken cookie.

• 17:37John Coogan?

  From a perspective of like what the elites are doing in our economy, think about it. You, so many billionaires are buying effectively circuses. They're buying sports teams. They're about UFC, there's F1, there's so many circuses.

• 17:51Jordi Hays?

  Banana, what, what?

• 17:52John Coogan?

  Savannah bananas, the Savannah bananas, the-

• 17:54Jordi Hays?

  Banana.

• 17:55John Coogan?

  The minor league baseball team.

• 17:56Jordi Hays?

  Banana ball.

• 17:57John Coogan?

  Banana ball?

• 17:58Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the Savannah bananas.

• 17:59John Coogan?

  The Savannah bananas.

• 18:00Jordi Hays?

  Your whole thesis breaks down.

• 18:01John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 18:02Jordi Hays?

  Because crumble cookies and Wingstop.

• 18:06John Coogan?

  Are collabing?

• 18:07Jordi Hays?

  Uh, it's fake news.

• 18:10John Coogan?

  It's fake news. See? Undefeated. But it's not a trophy asset. No one is, no one is getting the bag in venture or private equity or high finance and then being like-

• 18:22Jordi Hays?

  Give me the, give me the award. Give me the award.

• 18:26John Coogan?

  Jordy's gotta put on the fell for it again award. Cause he, he fell for AI slop. There is so much AI slop on the timeline.

• 18:34Jordi Hays?

  Again.

• 18:34John Coogan?

  Okay, we gotta move the camera down. There we go. There we go. Fell for it again award.

• 18:38Jordi Hays?

  That's me.

• 18:39John Coogan?

  That's Jordy. Many, many times, uh, many, many times. Uh, but yeah, the, the, the, the job apocalypse is certainly not happening. Bank of America hired 1,000 contractors to patch software flaws exposed by AI systems mythos and whatnot.

• 18:56Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 18:58John Coogan?

  What?

• 18:58Jordi Hays?

  I'm, I'm excited that these 1,000 contractors got hired, but at the same time, shouldn't the same AI that discovers the bug be able to like work out a solution and- But maybe, maybe there's just like, maybe there's 100,000 engineers worth of bugs, you know? But because these 1,000 contractors are, are powered by-

• 19:22John Coogan?

  Yeah, this is kind of an odd headline now that I'm thinking about it.

• 19:26John Coogan?

  Very, very odd. And it's like, yeah, did we just create a bunch of make work? Cause if we just didn't, if we hadn't invented this, it really is like the Pandora's box. Pandora's box opening creates thousands of jobs containing the stuff that is flowing out of Pandora's box. Is that what happened? Basically, that's the story here? Anyway, there is some progress on alignment. We're very excited to see this. Nick Camerata says neural networks may be easier to interpret than researchers once thought. Rune is very excited about this. Um, uh, so it starts with Nick Camerata. He says, "Interpretability, uh, might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now. As I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building.

• 20:11John Coogan?

  Uh, I think we have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic. Because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. The, you know, they're grown, we're growing a garden, we're midwifing a deity instead of building a machine that is interpretable. Uh, this has been the hope that we can actually interpret these systems." And so he started OpenAI's first large-scale automated interpretability product, uh, project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools that he had at the time.

• 20:46John Coogan?

  With modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. The vast majority in models, up to trillions of parameters are legible and their circuits beautiful. Many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most and possibly quite soon. As automated scientists keep improving, it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability. The simple thing at absurd scale works. And so Rune contextualizes it by saying, "When Nick told me that he had some interp breakthroughs, he was, uh, underselling it.

• 21:26John Coogan?

  I think this may be remembered as a major moment in scientific history. News so good, even Eliezer Yudkowsky will have to lower his P doom. We can start making a line into a mom."

• 21:38Speaker 02

  Yeah, so he said Goodfire. Goodfire is like a Meccan Terp lab. This is like, um, all the stuff they work on. It, it's like a third-party kind of, similar to a lot of like the safety labs.

• 21:46John Coogan?

  Is it a Frankenstein reference? Like fire bad, fire good. Like he's like, we're summoning the Frankenstein, but it's gonna be good?

• 21:55Speaker 02

  Uh, potentially.

• 21:56John Coogan?

  Potentially, okay.

• 21:56Speaker 02

  I'm not sure, but, uh, so basically the context of this is like, um, like Meccan Terp broadly is, is you're trying to figure out like what's going on at the most like minute level in the, in the models, right? So you're looking at like individual neurons.

• 22:08John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 22:09Speaker 02

  You know, when you pass in some text through a model, you know- Neuron A like lights up, it has a high number like Y, it's very unclear.

• 22:17John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 22:18Speaker 02

  You'll look at one neuron and maybe you pass in some text about cats and it lights up. And then you pass in some some texts about dogs and it also lights up. And it's like very confusing because like how is the model like actually working? It seems that, you know, each like individual neuron is basically like corresponds to like a bunch of different like topics or like features, usually call it.

• 22:41John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 22:42Speaker 02

  And so there's this thing called like superposition. This was the previous theory.

• 22:45John Coogan?

  Thing you were doing where like, didn't you make like a seventeen seventy six?

• 22:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, so that used something called a sparse autoencoder.

• 22:54John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 22:55Speaker 02

  Which is basically like the the theory is that these models are basically compressed forms of like bigger models essentially. Where you can imagine like a much bigger model where every single neuron corresponds to one specific feature, right? So like one neuron is the cat neuron. And so if you're talking about cats, that one will definitely like.

• 23:14Speaker 02

  And if you're talking about something else.

• 23:16Jordi Hays?

  Talk about cats on the show.

• 23:17Speaker 02

  If you're talking about something else, it it won't light up, right? And then basically you can take, you know, your small model and you can basically expand it out. It's called a sparse autoencoder. Yeah, but basically the outcome is like, we no longer need these sparse autoencoders. And you can actually look at the neurons themselves and figure out what's going on there.

• 23:31John Coogan?

  Fantastic.

• 23:31Speaker 02

  So it's very useful for safety, but also for capabilities, right? Because if you can figure out like, you know, i- if you're trying to make some capability better within the model, like whatever math on some niche subject, you can figure out exactly how it's working right now and then kind of optimize on that. So it's very applicable. Yeah, great news.

• 23:47John Coogan?

  Fantastic.

• 23:48Jordi Hays?

  Great summer.

• 23:48Speaker 02

  Thank you.

• 23:49John Coogan?

  Yeah, white pill. The timeline is in turmoil and has been over the weekend over Valar Atomix, Isaiah's company. And day one, because they're beefing over day one's pro rata rights. And so this happened back in October ninth, but we didn't get a chance to go through it. But Isaiah Taylor, the founder and CEO of Valar Atomix, posted a long blog post on October ninth, saying that he had gotten all of the investors to agree to waive pro rata, except for one venture capital firm, Day One Ventures.

• 24:28John Coogan?

  And and that they were fighting tooth and nail that Day One had retained a law firm and was fighting a lawsuit against them. And it was getting messy. So Isaiah decided to bring it to the public square on X and have the open debate. Lots of people coming out and supporting Isaiah. Some VCs coming out and supporting pro rata rights. Obviously, this is a more complicated situation because Day One has a bunch of complicated and controversial connections to international organizations and stuff like like. And Isaiah is like going and doing more and more government work. And so like, there is this extra layer of nuance there, I think, that's getting missed.

• 25:10John Coogan?

  But the the the core debate that the VCs are having is that there's a

• 25:18John Coogan?

  there's like a don't throw the baby out with the bathwater pitch happening that I'm seeing like Delian was talking about this.

• 25:23Jordi Hays?

  And you're saying their baby is pro rata?

• 25:25John Coogan?

  Yeah, basically. Like the bathwater might, so like it it might be like, okay, Isaiah, like, we support you in this one case. You should be able to sort of force an investor who has this like very controversial background to be diluted down below the the the major investor threshold in in this case. But just know that like founders don't get the idea that pro rata rights are squishy. Like they're negotiated for for a reason. They're gonna stick around. Don't think that you can pull this move without a huge amount of pushback.

• 26:03Jordi Hays?

  My view is I don't even know if it's worth having the pro rata debate because this isn't about pro rata at all.

• 26:11John Coogan?

  Yeah, it's sort of a proxy debate over the fact that it seems like Isaiah doesn't want to work with Day One anymore.

• 26:17Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 26:18John Coogan?

  It is tricky, like signing up to work with the venture capitalist is somewhat of a marriage. And you're stuck with each other for a really long time. And it's hard if they don't want to sell their shares, if they don't want to go the other way. It's typically very difficult. But once it's papered and the pro rata is in the contract, it's very hard.

• 26:37Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 26:38John Coogan?

  Keep that to dilute them down because that's the design is that if as long as I keep showing up with the money, me as an investor with a pro rata right, I can have 5% of this company forever.

• 26:48Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 26:48John Coogan?

  And there's nothing.

• 26:49Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the big, I mean, the the question is how just how much is having Mania involved with the company in a meaningful way, right? It's a meaningful stake, hurt the company.

• 26:59John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 27:00Jordi Hays?

  Are they losing, are they losing?

• 27:02John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 27:02Jordi Hays?

  You know, contracts over it? Is it just something that competitors can can sort of use?

• 27:09John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 27:09Jordi Hays?

  To to poke at the lar? I, you know, based on what Isaiah was saying, there's no information rights, like technical information rights that that come along with that.

• 27:23John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 27:23Jordi Hays?

  So I do think that it's probably completely possible for for them to just sort of keep uh keep the fund at an arm's length.

• 27:34John Coogan?

  Yeah. But financial information rights are valuable.

• 27:37Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 27:38John Coogan?

  Like even internationally, like, I mean, we just saw that with the OpenAI spy. Big car day today, two car launches, the Tesla Roadster. Tonight, seven fifty five PM Central Time.

• 27:53Speaker 02

  Yeah, so five fifty five Pacific.

• 27:54John Coogan?

  Five fifty five Pacific.

• 27:55Speaker 02

  Eight fifty five Eastern.

• 27:57John Coogan?

  But I put down a deposit yesterday for a Roadster. And I'm fully ready to put that pin on. The fell for it again award is ready to go. So it's five grand on a credit card and it's and you have to wire forty five thousand within 10 days. But I'm gonna know whether or not it's a good car by tonight. And so I do, so that I can, I can cancel it if I don't like it and jump out of line. But if it's amazing, I mean, Elon's saying it's like gonna be the most amazing product demo ever. If it's amazing, then I will be able to hold my position in the line before everyone floods in post launch.

• 28:35Jordi Hays?

  Fun, uh, let's speculate a little bit.

• 28:37John Coogan?

  Yes, yes.

• 28:38Jordi Hays?

  So I think that ramps will be involved.

• 28:42John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 28:43Jordi Hays?

  I think that ramps will be involved.

• 28:44John Coogan?

  So so because our original bet was it will leave the ground on flat ground. And I think you had like half a foot. I think you had one foot.

• 28:52Jordi Hays?

  Flat ground in the.

• 28:53John Coogan?

  No, he just said, he just gestured towards it flying.

• 28:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, and so and so to me, what's the easiest way to get a car in the air?

• 29:01John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 29:01Jordi Hays?

  Shoot it off of a ramp, drive it off of a ramp. I think we're gonna be seeing multiple types of ramps. I think we're gonna be seeing.

• 29:08John Coogan?

  That'd be awesome. I love it. So if there's ramps involved, Jordy wins. If it jumps off the ground off of flat ground, I win. That's the bet. So you think jump, I think, I think rocket engines or or thrusters or fans that will lift. The people that fell for the Tesla Roadster the first time, they put down the full amount in 2017 and they waited a decade and they didn't get anything, nothing shipped, right? They fell for it. They didn't fall for it again because Tesla has always shipped their vehicles. They did the Cybertruck, they shipped that. There's one outside, like they they're real. You may like it, you may not, but they shipped it. But they didn't with the original Roadster.

• 29:48John Coogan?

  And so there were a lot of people that feel like they fell for the Roadster promo scheme because they put down the money and then they waited a decade and they didn't get anything. So in order to fall for it again, you need to put down the money and wait another decade. But we don't want to wait a decade. And so the question is, is on what time scale would you be disappointed? And to what feature set would you be disappointed?

• 30:13Jordi Hays?

  And so I thought it'd be funny to demo the car in such an insane way that it just instantly like federal regulators come in and say like, you cannot, under any circumstances, do this.

• 30:23John Coogan?

  And then he's like, ah, my hand is tied.

• 30:24Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, sorry. I I made the product.

• 30:27John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 30:28Jordi Hays?

  I just can't ship it. We're going back to.

• 30:30John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 30:30Jordi Hays?

  Model Y. We're only gonna make the Model Y now.

• 30:33John Coogan?

  So it's gonna be withered and old by the time we put it on? No, I I would say, I would say one year. I I it's gotta be one year. If it takes more than one year to ship this thing, then you fell for it again, right? Because like you've had 10 years, like like you don't get another 10. You get another launch and then you get another, okay, ship it, right?

• 30:52Jordi Hays?

  How much was the original Roadster deposit?

• 30:55John Coogan?

  I thought it was the full amount. I thought it was like a quarter mil. I don't know. You can look that up. Mission S is coming out. I think they will ship it. I think that the Mission S is probably a safer, a safer bet. You won't be.

• 31:08Jordi Hays?

  So this video leaked.

• 31:10John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 31:10Jordi Hays?

  Late last night.

• 31:11John Coogan?

  Okay, what are they doing? They're peeling back a cover and they're showing off the car. And you had a very good take on this. What do you like about this design? What do you like about the Mission S? What sticks out to you about this?

• 31:27Jordi Hays?

  So I'll start by saying I feel like a kid who like accidentally saw their Christmas present. This this car is way, way more aggressive than I was anticipating.

• 31:42John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 31:43Jordi Hays?

  It feels like it really does feel like it's over for every other manufacturer in the in the sort of like mid-range supercar category.

• 31:53John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 31:53Jordi Hays?

  Because.

• 31:54John Coogan?

  The McLarens, the Lamborghinis, the.

• 31:56Jordi Hays?

  The Ferraris.

• 31:57John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 31:57Jordi Hays?

  Like it is gonna be rough.

• 31:59Speaker 02

  It's got a roof scoop.

• 32:00John Coogan?

  I know, I know.

• 32:01Jordi Hays?

  Scooping. I mean, this is the perfect car for an S-tier journalist to just rip around SF.

• 32:07John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 32:08Jordi Hays?

  With the roof scoop.

• 32:09John Coogan?

  For sure. We'll see about the performance. We'll see about how they position it. I know that they're not gonna do as as as much of a restriction on the production numbers. But at least from like an emotional feeling, it's giving me nine eighteen successor. And I know that they might say, oh, it's not, it's a different thing. It it's gonna be a high production or whatever. It doesn't matter. Emotionally, I'm feeling Carrera GT, I'm feeling nine eighteen.

• 32:34Jordi Hays?

  And this just immediately becomes by far the most desirable car in the 500 to a million dollar price range, in my opinion.

• 32:42John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 32:43Jordi Hays?

  Like day one. The car is somewhat antisocial, right?

• 32:47John Coogan?

  How so?

• 32:47Jordi Hays?

  Looking at the amount of rocks that the back tires is gonna be thrown up.

• 32:52John Coogan?

  Right.

• 32:53Jordi Hays?

  If you want to take this out on a Sunday drive with some buddies, you're gonna need some mud flaps.

• 32:58John Coogan?

  That's right.

• 32:59Jordi Hays?

  Otherwise, good luck if you're sitting behind this thing.

• 33:01John Coogan?

  Well, thank you for tuning into TDPN. Leave us five stars.

• 33:05Jordi Hays?

  We're just 23 minutes away from the Mission S reveal. And we're just hours away from us seeing.

• 33:11John Coogan?

  The new Nathan Feller movie.

• 33:12Jordi Hays?

  That's right.

• 33:13John Coogan?

  We're very excited. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Get ready for Christmas, it's only 70 days away. And sign up for our newsletter at tdpn.com.