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Still Counting: Trump vs. The BLUE WAVE: A Midterm Extravaganza

Strict Scrutiny

22m
Transcript

Original podcast

Summary

Written by a model from the transcript; not yet reviewed.

In this debut episode of Still Counting, the hosts discuss the political landscape ahead of the midterms, analyzing current polling, models, and Senate races. Nate Silver explains how his forecasting model, Flippers, assesses party chances and how the shift from registered to likely voter polls impacts enthusiasm gaps. The team also breaks down specific Senate contests, including North Carolina and Michigan, examining candidate quality, polarization, and voter sentiment. Listeners get a rigorous, data-driven look at political forecasting without the spin, featuring candid insights from former FiveThirtyEight analysts who bring both quantitative models and traditional reporting to the table.

  • Nate Silver's Flippers model shows Democrats with an 83 percent chance of winning the House, while the Senate forecast is split 50-50. 8:27
  • North Carolina Senate candidate Roy Cooper holds an 86.9 percent win probability in the model. 13:44
  • Polling shows Trump's approval rating at 38 percent with a 58 to 59 percent disapproval rating. 10:48

Chapters

  1. 0:00
    Podcast Launch and Host Introductions

    The hosts introduce the new Still Counting podcast, explaining its focus on data-driven political analysis and previewing the episode’s midterm focus.

  2. 0:53
    Ad Breaks and Commercials

    A series of unrelated ads for Coca-Cola, beauty products, and other sponsors interrupt the conversation before the hosts return to the show.

  3. 2:18
    Host Backgrounds and Podcast Premise

    The hosts discuss their backgrounds at FiveThirtyEight and outline the structure of the first episode, which will cover midterm elections and Republican sentiment.

  4. 8:00
    Michigan Senate Race Deep Dive

    The discussion turns to Michigan, evaluating candidate dynamics, the impact of moderate versus progressive positions, and how the state’s purple nature makes it a key battleground.

  5. 11:24
    Midterm Game and Forecast Overview

    The hosts introduce a game drawing competitive Senate races from a hat and explain Nate Silver’s Flippers model, highlighting its 83% House win probability and 50-50 Senate forecast.

  6. 23:39
    Iowa Senate Race Preview

    The hosts briefly touch on Iowa’s Senate contest, mentioning key candidates and the state’s importance in the broader electoral landscape.

Highlights

  • Coca-Cola 0:53–2:00
  • You Beauty 2:02–20:00
  • Gernavix 24:21–26:45

About this episode

Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and Galen Druke discuss the most competitive Senate races heading into the midterms in this excerpt from their new podcast, Still Counting. To hear the rest, head over to Still Counting and subscribe! New episodes drop every Wednesday evening. You can request a transcript by emailing [email protected] mailto:[email protected]. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Transcript

0:00
22:56

4,948 words · 7 speakers

Topics

  • Michigan
  • Pod Save America
  • FiveThirtyEight
  • AI
  • Crooked Media

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