The Science of Climate and Weather, with Kathy Sullivan

Neil Tyson explores the challenge of predicting weather and understanding climate, with ex-NOAA admin. Kathy Sullivan, co-host Scott Adsit, climate scientist Radley Horton, meteorologist Nick Gregory, paleoclimatologist Linda Sohl, astrobiologist David Grinspoon, Bill Nye. NOTE: StarTalk All-Access subscribers can listen to this entire episode commercial-free. Find out more at https://www.startalkradio.net/startalk-all-access/

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Welcome to StarTalk. Your place in the universe where science and pop culture collide. StarTalk begins right now.

• 0:21Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Welcome to the Hall of the Universe. I'm Neil deGrasse Tyson, your personal astrophysicist, and tonight we're going to be talking about the science of climate and weather. We're going to talk about tracking storms and measuring the atmosphere and how that will come in to predicting the safety and future of life on Earth. So let's do this.

• 0:46Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  My co-host is actor Scott Exitz. Scott, welcome.

• 0:50Speaker 01

  Hello.

• 0:51Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  This is not your first rodeo here.

• 0:52Speaker 01

  No, we've spent many hours together. I'm very excited to give my ignorance a run for its money.

• 0:57Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And you were the voice of Big Hero 6.

• 0:59Speaker 01

  Well, yes, Baymax in Big Hero 6.

• 1:01Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay, so we also have Bradley Horton, welcome from Columbia University.

• 1:05Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 1:06Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Climate scientist. We're going to be heavily drawing on your expertise because we're featuring my interview with Kathy Sullivan, who is the top dog at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, otherwise known as NOAA. NOAA, these people think about and worry about climate and weather like it's nobody's business. And so I've got my interview with her, but before she became head of NOAA, she was a NASA astronaut. And I had to ask her about that. She was in the first class of female astronauts. So let's find out a little bit about that past.

• 1:42Speaker 02

  NASA's got like 30 astronauts left over from the Skylab Apollo era. Reckons they need about 100 to make what they think the flight cycle will be with the shuttle.

• 1:50Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  The shuttle was coming online.

• 1:52Speaker 02

  This is all about the shuttle now.

• 1:53Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Right.

• 1:54Speaker 02

  So they put a big announcement.

• 1:55Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And a crew is six, seven people.

• 1:56Speaker 02

  That's right.

• 1:57Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yeah, so this is boatloads.

• 1:58Speaker 02

  Boatloads.

• 1:59Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yes.

• 2:00Speaker 02

  And it's now the mid-'70s, post-civil rights legislation.

• 2:03Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So this next-generation astronaut class, how do you turn this into something that looks like America?

• 2:08Speaker 02

  Right. How do you make it credible to people who've maybe dreamt of it before and have never been allowable in your world? You've never let these kind of people in.

• 2:18Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Women.

• 2:19Speaker 02

  Women.

• 2:20Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Go back home.

• 2:21Speaker 02

  People of color, yeah, explicitly.

• 2:22Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yeah, black person, get my bags.

• 2:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, we don't got this, right? So now you want to...

• 2:25Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  You have to unlearn that.

• 2:26Speaker 02

  You've got to unlearn that.

• 2:27Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yeah.

• 2:28Speaker 02

  And so your ask or your invitation... When you say it, it may well not sound very credible to those folks. And even once you're aboard, so we ended up being in a class of thirty-five with six women.

• 2:38Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  You were in the first class?

• 2:39Speaker 02

  Yep. Six women, three African-Americans, an Asian-American, so ten people who, ten people the likes of whom had never appeared in the astronaut.

• 2:46Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Never came close, never even, not even a trace.

• 2:49Speaker 02

  Never even close.

• 2:51Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yes, that's some pioneering stuff right there. Happened as late as the eighties, but we're glad it happened at all. And she was the first American woman to spacewalk. She also was on the deploying mission for the Hubble Space Telescope. So I love me some of those astronauts, you know. If you put up my telescope, I'm good with that.

• 3:10Speaker 01

  But it's amazing that she was in such a diverse group in her first class, that first class.

• 3:17Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yeah, it's interesting, they didn't start slowly in the first class. I think they knew they would be scrutinized carefully.

• 3:23Speaker 01

  But I would like to point out, there's not one Romulan in that entire class.

• 3:28Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  What we have also, well, just remember what's going on, is the Apollo era not only got us to the moon, it got us to think about Earth in an important way. In nineteen seventy, we're still going to the moon, but the Environmental Protection Agency is signed into law, so too is the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, which cares about oceans and air. It's fun, because to pronounce that, it's NOAA, you know. It's just kinda cute.

• 3:59Speaker 01

  Well, the very religious people are very happy about that. At least they get in there somehow.

• 4:03Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  They get a piece of that action. And so NOAA, for the first time, you have an organization that combines the word ocean and the word atmosphere in the same phrasing, right?

• 4:14Speaker 03

  That's right. I mean, these are totally coupled systems, you know. I think that was one of the messages when we first saw those iconic images from space that showed the Earth as one system, such a key part of the start of the environmental movement, really. So as you say, it's, this is a linked system. It's linked in space, right? We can think about the large scale where we see waves in the atmosphere, maybe the size of a continent.

• 4:37Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  When we say waves, you mean pockets of air?

• 4:39Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 4:39Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  That move coherently?

• 4:41Speaker 03

  Right. The jet stream with a ridge over one part of the USA that's warm. And the location of those large-scale waves, in turn, impacts the fine scale, right? It impacts whether you get the formation of a low-pressure system and a storm with winds that then... Make their way down to the surface in an energy cascade, right? So there's that spatial connection of scales and I think also connection across different parts of the climate system too. Can I ask what is, what separates a wave from what the wave is moving through? Is it just temperature of air? So I guess waves can form for a variety-

• 5:12Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I was gonna ask the same question.

• 5:13Speaker 03

  Yeah, was it waves- It's a good thing I'm here. Yeah.

• 5:15Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Thank you.

• 5:16Speaker 03

  They can form for a- You don't need me here at all.

• 5:18Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  No, no, no, you, you got my back, Scott.

• 5:20Speaker 03

  Alright, I got your front this time.

• 5:23Speaker 03

  They can form for a variety of, of reasons. I mean, one of the most basic features is the, is the jet stream, which is largely driven by a temperature contrast between the warm equatorial regions that receive the most sunlight and the higher latitude polar regions. So you have these sort of stable formations, but then within that, these instabilities form and wave energy propagates to try to fill in some of those gaps.

• 5:46Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So you would've had no real global data on this were it not for NOAA?

• 5:50Speaker 03

  NOAA was critical, absolutely.

• 5:52Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And so here's Kathy Sullivan, former astronaut head of NOAA. And so I, I just asked her what, what, what NOAA is all about. And let, let's check out her answer. What is NOAA's mission?

• 6:05Speaker 02

  It, it really is to understand the earth and how it works and translate that into useful information for society.

• 6:10Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Earth has a planet?

• 6:11Speaker 02

  Yep. We fly the country's operational weather satellites. Almost any picture you see on your evening news, the weather broadcast is from a NOAA satellite. Nautical charting, we make all the country's nautical charts. The tide gauges and information that help ship pilots bring big container ships in safely. Then we also do ocean and coastal management, like fisheries, marine mammals.

• 6:31Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay, so we've got, oh, we got atmosphere, ocean, land, and life?

• 6:36Speaker 02

  And life.

• 6:36Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Is there a system that I don't know about?

• 6:37Speaker 02

  No, basically, and there're chemical flows between that and the physics and chemistry that tie them all together. Earth's systems.

• 6:43Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Earth's systems.

• 6:44Speaker 02

  Earth is a system of systems.

• 6:47Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  But Bradley, this concept of a system of systems, it seems to me is a modern idea. In terms of systems engineering, right?

• 6:54Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think that's right. And we're learning about some of the feedbacks that can amplify an initial process. For example, in a hurricane, how you need an initial wind, which then stirs up the ocean, releasing heat, which can then make the wind stronger, is one example.

• 7:09Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So that's what you mean by feedback?

• 7:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 7:11Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So one thing triggers another thing, and that other thing it triggers makes that first thing even more enhanced?

• 7:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, that'd be a positive feedback.

• 7:18Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Positive feedback. And a negative feedback, it would just squash it out?

• 7:21Speaker 01

  Right.

• 7:22Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Cool. So if you found a way to negative feedback a hurricane, you could dash him in the cradle?

• 7:27Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 7:28Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So you need your satellites?

• 7:29Speaker 01

  Absolutely.

• 7:30Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Without satellites, you'd walking around doing this?

• 7:32Speaker 01

  More or less. That's what people did before there were satellites too, though, right? Before there were weathermen, there were... What were the weathermen like?

• 7:40Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I...

• 7:41Speaker 01

  Like, "My goat's facing Chicago, it's gonna rain." "My knees hurt this morning, everybody head to high ground."

• 7:50Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  You got the rheumatism.

• 7:51Speaker 01

  Right.

• 7:52Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I guess you're right. It wasn't that long ago, when the biggest thing you would predict about the weather, just, "Weather's gonna rain on your picnic," and you only got that right half the time. And yeah, it was somebody feeling their joints or something.

• 8:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, farmers probably knew it better than anybody, right? They could probably learn what to look for.

• 8:09Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  They live outside, yeah. No, no, I'm sorry, I didn't mean, literally, they spend more time outside than city people do.

• 8:18Speaker 01

  Yeah, and they depend on knowing how to predict, how to raise their crops.

• 8:21Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Right. But they still use NOAA, today.

• 8:25Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah, yes.

• 8:26Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yeah, they're not...

• 8:27Speaker 01

  No, well, they don't have to lick their fingers anymore.

• 8:29Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So, when I, or any of us, think of weather, I don't think the first thing we think of is NOAA. We think of the National Weather Service. So I posed this question to Kathy Sullivan, only to then learn that not only is she boss of NOAA, she's boss of the National Weather Service. Check it out. Under who does the National Weather Service fall?

• 8:53Speaker 02

  Me.

• 8:54Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So that's a branch of NOAA?

• 8:55Speaker 02

  It's a branch of NOAA.

• 8:56Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I didn't know that.

• 8:57Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 8:57Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Oh my god.

• 8:58Speaker 02

  It's a branch of NOAA.

• 8:59Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay.

• 8:59Speaker 02

  Yep. And then we also have stewardship responsibilities.

• 9:02Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So you are like queen of the weather weenies?

• 9:06Speaker 02

  Oceans and atmosphere, man.

• 9:08Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Because a weather weenie, that's a whole kind of person.

• 9:11Speaker 02

  Yes, it is.

• 9:11Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay, who's got all the measuring devices in their backyard.

• 9:14Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 9:14Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And the anemometer, whatever this thing is called, and all of that.

• 9:16Speaker 02

  That would be us.

• 9:17Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Oh my gosh.

• 9:18Speaker 02

  That would be us.

• 9:19Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay. Well, in the same way that CNN does very well in their ratings when there's war, uh, the Weather Channel does really well when there's extreme weather.

• 9:28Speaker 02

  Right.

• 9:29Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So people love watching extreme weather, the tornadoes.

• 9:32Speaker 02

  It's mesmerizing.

• 9:33Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Hurricanes.

• 9:33Speaker 02

  Absolutely.

• 9:34Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And I don't know why, because it's deadly, but maybe we just like deadly. Like, kids here like looking into the mouth of T-Rex.

• 9:40Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 9:41Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And who doesn't love black holes, right? That will rip you to shreds. So, so maybe there's some morbid fascination we have as humans with things that could kill us, but we somehow keep a safe distance from them.

• 9:52Speaker 02

  Or fascination with scale and power that we can't comprehend.

• 9:54Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Energy, yeah.

• 9:55Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 9:55Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yeah, the manifestation of energy beyond our control. So, so, Ratt, do you have any insights into people's fascination with extreme weather? Yeah, I think I'll...

• 10:04Speaker 01

  First, can I ask first, uh, the term "weather weenie"?

• 10:07Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yeah. Well, that's a term of endearment.

• 10:09Speaker 01

  You didn't just make that up to humiliate her just now.

• 10:12Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Oh, no, no, that's, that "weather weenie", that's, I thought that, do people know about weather weenies? They're all shaking their head. Um, okay, I, I thought that was a, an endearing term.

• 10:22Speaker 01

  Does it bother you?

• 10:24Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I think I'll move on to the first part of the question.

• 10:28Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Well, "weather weenie", you know, okay, if, I didn't mean it. I mean, it's kind of playfully, sounds offensive, but if you're in the community of people who are...

• 10:39Speaker 01

  If you are a weenie, you can call someone else a weenie.

• 10:42Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yeah, thank you.

• 10:42Speaker 01

  All right.

• 10:43Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Thank you. I'm, I'm a, yes. So what's your insight into this fascination with deadly weather?

• 10:52Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think we heard a big part of it right there. As we're getting better in some ways at managing risk, planning for the future, as satellites improve, I think it's somewhat human nature to still be in awe of these things that can immediately disrupt.

• 11:05Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  At a safe distance.

• 11:06Speaker 03

  At a safe distance. Everything that can disrupt all of our best plans. And I think that clearly it's compelling to study some of these extreme events because if we can better understand what's going to happen, either in terms of predicting an individual storm, or how the statistics of storms may change in the future, then we can reduce some of those risks. But I think there's another piece here, perhaps related, which is this, I think we should acknowledge this just sort of visceral element by which we're fascinated by these things. Thinking of tornado chasers, you know, there's a beauty to these extremes as well that maybe we need to connect with in some of our messaging, too.

• 11:42Speaker 01

  Also, I think, if I'm alone here, just let me know, but we're all looking forward to death.

• 11:49Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Why don't we let you know now?

• 11:53Speaker 01

  Let's have a talk.

• 11:55Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  No, I think the safe distance from something that will kill you is an, who doesn't love sitting behind a picture window, watching a thunderstorm unfold?

• 12:05Speaker 03

  Right. And maybe there's a way we can even leverage the idea that these extreme events are sort of exciting to people. As macabre as it is, is there a way for that to get some people to the table? When horrible things happen, like Hurricane Sandy, can there be a teaching moment afterward? Do you sometimes have potential to, right after, when people have seen the vulnerability, when they're making decisions about whether to rebuild, how to use that information?

• 12:32Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Well, we're featuring my interview with Kathy Sullivan, former NASA astronaut and head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, affectionately known as NOAA. Let's check it out.

• 12:46Speaker 02

  NOAA's job is, you know, take the pulse of the planet and transform those data into actionable, reliable, timely information. So I'm gonna take satellite profiles of moisture and temperature in the atmosphere, and I'm gonna transform that into a dynamic model of the weather and tell you likelihood of needing your raincoat in two days and how cold it's gonna be. And over our lifetimes, the skill of doing that has gone from where you could sort of maybe trust the forecast for tomorrow and not so much day three, to where you can swing some plan around day five, day seven.

• 13:21Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I've noticed this.

• 13:22Speaker 02

  It's been a day a decade.

• 13:23Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I've been very impressed.

• 13:24Speaker 02

  It's been a day a decade.

• 13:25Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And it'll tell you the run of likely temperatures in the afternoon on Friday when you're looking on Monday.

• 13:30Speaker 02

  And it'll be...

• 13:31Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  It'll be in there. It's gonna be in there.

• 13:33Speaker 02

  A day a decade increase in skill.

• 13:34Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I've noticed this.

• 13:35Speaker 02

  Good.

• 13:36Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I just wanna say, congratulations on that one.

• 13:37Speaker 02

  Thank you.

• 13:38Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So Bradley, how's it we've gotten better at this? Is it just computing?

• 13:43Speaker 03

  It's partly computing, certainly. That enables us to go to finer spatial resolution, to pick up the finer scale items like storms. And some of it's just improved physical understanding. We've seen, we've got a longer record now of storms, of weather. It's still a blend of that prediction and model skill and the expertise of individual forecasters.

• 14:06Speaker 01

  Can I thank you for giving the world your predictive passion, rather than just like going to Vegas and using the same technology to count cards and predict roulette? Thank you.

• 14:18Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  How sweet of you, Scott.

• 14:20Speaker 01

  I love science.

• 14:21Speaker 03

  But there are always gonna be some fundamental limitations, whether sort of butterfly effect, so there are gonna be ultimate sort of limits to predictability.

• 14:31Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Butterfly effect, this is where chaos kicks in. By some small variation here, it explodes into something that you could not have accurately predicted.

• 14:44Speaker 03

  Right.

• 14:45Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Because I'm saying, turning weather data into an accurate forecast, I mean, the meteorologists on TV have to do this all the time.

• 14:53Speaker 03

  Absolutely.

• 14:54Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And if they get it wrong, people get angry with them.

• 14:57Speaker 03

  Yeah, yeah.

• 14:58Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  But really, it should be getting angry with you.

• 15:00Speaker 03

  Absolutely. Break your eyes.

• 15:02Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yeah.

• 15:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, because the weathermen on TV are meteorologists, but do they, do they sit and do the math, or do they just get reports and understand?

• 15:09Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I think they know enough of how to interpret the information that comes to them.

• 15:12Speaker 03

  Yeah, some of it's maybe a local context for weather in the particular city that they reside in, some of it's maybe decades of experience, knowing when to trust the weather models, and when maybe to sense intuitively that a certain system might be unique and might not follow the traditional patterns.

• 15:28Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  You know what we have? We have a video dispatch from an actual local news meteorologist to help us explain how they make their predictions happen. Let's check it out.

• 15:37Speaker 04

  Hello, Dr. Tyson. Nick Gregory here at the Fox 5 Weather Center in New York City. Coming up with a weather forecast with all the raw data we get from NOAA and other sources really is a science. Huge amounts of data that get plugged into various computer models, which then present a solution. We take that solution, apply our own knowledge of past weather events, and predict what we think is going to happen. For example, let's see how we would predict a potential blizzard. So we would start to look for those weather trends. What would they be? Let's say, high pressure ridging in from eastern Canada. We would then look to the computer models to see what type of jet stream pattern would be in play, and would this trough of low pressure be along the east coast, potentially

• 16:21Speaker 04

  with this jet stream riding up the eastern seaboard? Pockets of energy, then start moving across the country, this upper level energy, that once it reaches the east coast, sets the potential for a storm to develop right in this location. That storm could then intensify and turn into a nor'easter, and eventually track up along that jet stream track, leaving a swath of heavy snow alongside. So there you have it.

• 16:46Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Cool. I know this guy. I mean, he's our local weather guy.

• 16:50Speaker 01

  It's nice you threw him some work.

• 16:54Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So, to improve accuracy, it's not just an academic exercise. It matters. And what's the biggest reason why we need accurate disaster forecasts from you?

• 17:05Speaker 03

  Well, for one thing, it saves lives, right? I mean, if we can know that a hurricane is gonna explosively gain in strength in advance, we can get people out of the way in time. For example, if we can better forecast tornadoes. It's also big business, right? If we can help inform people on when they should plant crops, inform investments on how much money should be spent on heating fuels or something like that for a winter. So, there's real economic implications and human lives at stake.

• 17:35Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Well, coming up next on StarTalk, we will answer your questions about the science of weather and climate on Earth and beyond when StarTalk returns.

• 17:57Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Welcome back to StarTalk. We're talking about Earth's interconnected system of life, land, sea, and air, and how all of that conspires to give us our weather and our climate. And in this segment, it is now time for Cosmic Queries. Yes. Loving me Cosmic Queries. This is where we answer questions from our fans, typically drawn from social media. And Scott, you've got these questions?

• 18:24Speaker 01

  I do.

• 18:25Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And if I can't answer them, I'm gonna call lifelines. I'll do whatever I can to help this out. All right, go.

• 18:30Speaker 01

  All right, here we go. Amen Punwani from Tallahassee, Florida, asks, "As the Earth and Moon continue to pace themselves into a tidal lock, would the rotation of the Earth slow down? And if so, what would be the effects on our tide patterns?"

• 18:46Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Ooh, I got this. You want me to take this?

• 18:49Speaker 01

  You got it.

• 18:50Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay. So, Earth has already tidally locked the Moon. We have our, the effect of our gravity on it is stronger than the effect of its gravity on us, on our shape. So, we've tidally locked, so the Moon only ever shows one face to us. That's why there is a near side of the Moon and a far side of the Moon. But there is no dark side of the Moon.

• 19:11Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  All sides of the moon get sunlight every month.

• 19:14Speaker 03

  Okay, don't get angry about it.

• 19:15Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I am angry. Pink Floyd put ten years of my life in motion to correct their album title Dark Side of the Moon. Just saying.

• 19:27Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay, so the moon is trying to tidally lock us. It's just not as good at it. So the moon is slowing us down ever so slightly. And we compensate for this by every now and then putting a leap second into the calendar. We've had some two dozen leap seconds put in ever since we've been able to measure the fact that the moon is slowing us down at this rate. Ever since the early 1970s, we are compensating for this. It will take longer than the life expectancy of the sun for the moon to fully tidally lock the earth. So there you have it. Now, as earth slows down, we have less of a rotational effect on storm manufacturing,

• 20:12Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  correct? So do you have like a rotation rate of the earth term in your modeling?

• 20:17Speaker 03

  Yes, you do. There's the Coriolis effect, which you have to cover.

• 20:20Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  The Coriolis effect, yeah. And so you can, can you control how strong the Coriolis effect is?

• 20:25Speaker 03

  Yeah, when you do modeling simulations for other planets, that's a parameter that you can play with in a model.

• 20:30Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay, cool, cool. Good one, yes.

• 20:33Speaker 01

  All right, number two. Pete Craigel from Milwaukee, Wisconsin asks, so Jupiter's storm, what has sustained it for so long and will it eventually stop?

• 20:43Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Ooh, I know it's been going since Galileo's time, but on StarTalk, we have ways of summoning knowledge from the universe that might not be present in this room. So let me conjure David Grin spoon. David, are you on video call? Hey, David, there you go.

• 21:02David Grinspoon?

  Hey, how's it going, Neil?

• 21:03Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Hey, someone is asking about Jupiter's red spot. How long has it been around? How ferocious is it? Is it going to keep going? So, so you're an expert. You work for the Planetary Science Institute. So what can you tell us about the red spot?

• 21:16David Grinspoon?

  Well, Jupiter has these giant storms. The red spot's not the only one. It's just the biggest and most long-lived one. And interestingly, they, they do come and go over the years, but the red spot has been there for at least 300 years and.

• 21:34David Grinspoon?

  It's interesting to wonder if it's gonna, if it's gonna stick around. These, the other storms on Jupiter we've seen that are almost that big, some of them come and go, but the, the red spot is a very stable storm system and so far it's, you know, it hasn't gone anywhere and so, I don't know, maybe it's a, it's a permanent feature of, of the planet.

• 21:55Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay, so if you look at Jupiter through a telescope, it's actually a strikingly patterned place in this upper atmosphere of, of, of bands and, and storms. Earth rotates once in 24 hours, Jupiter rotates once in like 10 hours and it's way bigger than Earth, so it must have a staggering Coriolis force.

• 22:15David Grinspoon?

  That's right, yeah, the, the winds on Jupiter are ferocious and the Coriolis forces, as you've said, are really strong because not only is the, uh, is the rotation rate significantly faster than Earth, but it has to make it around a heck of a lot farther because it's so huge and so, so, um, those forces are really strong and that is part of, of course, what maintains these massive, massive, basically hurricane, massive hurricanes like the red spot.

• 22:45Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So, can we hold you on in case the next question needs to go back to you too? Scott, what, what do you have?

• 22:51Speaker 01

  Ashton Norton wants to know, what's the most extreme climate in our solar system?

• 22:56Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So David, what do you have? The most extreme climate in our solar system?

• 22:59David Grinspoon?

  I would have to say Venus. Uh, Venus has a surface temperature of almost 900 degrees Fahrenheit, uh, which is all because of a massive greenhouse effect, uh, just like the greenhouse effect we hear so much about on Earth that is getting a little uncomfortably strong right now, but, uh, an unbelievably strong greenhouse effect on Venus is what makes the climate there so extreme.

• 23:25Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So, is Earth at risk of having a runaway greenhouse effect like Venus? Because Venus is commonly referred to as our sister planet, it's about the same size, about the same surface gravity, so why not think about it in other analogous ways?

• 23:41David Grinspoon?

  Yes, Earth is at risk of a runaway greenhouse in the very long run. In fact, in the very long run, it's almost inevitable that Earth will go the way of Venus. Now, if you're asking if there's a short-term threat because of the stuff we're putting in the atmosphere, imagine if we burned all the fossil fuels, every last ounce of coal, every last drop of oil. Could we push Earth into a Venus-style runaway greenhouse? And there's a little bit of disagreement there, but I think the best models say, no, we're not in immediate danger of that. Of course, we don't want to try that experiment because long before we got to a Venus-like state, it would be uninhabitable for us.

• 24:23Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So David, thanks for calling in and helping us out on Cosmic Queries. Thank you. So we're talking about the science of weather, featuring my interview with the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Kathy Sullivan. That's America's Weather and Climate Predicting and Monitoring Agency. And I asked her about one of the flashiest weather events she's ever seen: lightning. Let's check it out.

• 24:52Speaker 02

  Lightning, the science is still not quite nailed down.

• 24:55Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Love me some lightning. Who doesn't love lightning?

• 24:57Speaker 02

  Who doesn't love lightning? And the pattern of lightning and thunderstorms seems to change in ways that are diagnostic of a storm becoming a tornado. So there might be clues, early clues, to this one's going to be generating a tornado and that one won't. And, you know, ask any astronaut, one of the really magical sights is flying over a massive thunderstorm.

• 25:18Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  You're an astronaut. What's a magical sight?

• 25:20Speaker 02

  Yeah, there you go.

• 25:21Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay, next time I have an astronaut, I'll ask them. I got one sitting right here.

• 25:25Speaker 02

  You fly over a massive complex of thunderstorms, you know, on the ground when you're watching them, there's a bolt there, and a little while later, there's a bolt there. You watch them from on top, and that cloud is like electrically active all the time. You see zippers of lightning racing.

• 25:40Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Well, because you see much more.

• 25:42Speaker 02

  You're seeing the whole complex.

• 25:43Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  The whole complex.

• 25:44Speaker 02

  And it's like seeing a whole organism. Charlie Bolden said once, "You've got the greatest line."

• 25:48Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Probably the head of NASA.

• 25:49Speaker 02

  And one of my crewmates on a couple flights. We were looking at one of those one night. He said, "Don't you, isn't it like this is the light show accompanying some great concert and you wish you could hear the music?"

• 25:58Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  [laughing]

• 25:59Speaker 02

  It's exactly right. It's exactly right.

• 26:03Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So lightning, some cool facts about lightning. As you may know, I don't know if you know this, the movement of electrons through the air catastrophically heats the air to 50,000 degrees Fahrenheit, which is about five times the temperature of the surface of the sun. And because it heats it catastrophically, it creates a shock wave. And there's a lot of deposited energy there. And I'm curious, Kathy said that tracking tornadoes might be aided by tracking lightning. What's the connection between the two?

• 26:36Speaker 03

  There's some research suggesting that 15 or 20 minutes before tornadoes form, there's sometimes an increase in lightning activity and sort of the frequency of strikes that may be associated with what we call updrafts or downdrafts within severe storms. These are instances where you get more vertical motion, which can then feed on itself. And that wind shear is a critical factor in tornado formation. So the basic idea would be, maybe, maybe in some instances, if you see an increase in lightning, could be indicative of a change in these vertical winds, which could give you more wind shear. Maybe 15 or 20 minutes later, you're more likely, because of that wind shear, to get a circulation that can encourage a tornado.

• 27:17Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Cool. And being hit by lightning is the standard metric of the rarity of something, right? You're more likely to be hit by lightning than bitten by a shark, or bitten by a shark than hit by lightning. Whatever. So we looked up the numbers, it's like about 50 people a year. And there was a guy, I think in the Guinness Book, who said, who was like hit most by lightning, I forgot the number, was it seven or 10? Because he survived all these lightning, he said, "Somebody up there is looking after me." And I said, "No."

• 27:49Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 27:50Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Just the opposite. Somebody's trying to kill you and failing at it. So we're featuring my interview with Kathy Sullivan. She's head of the American agency that concerns itself with monitoring and predicting our climate and our weather. And I asked her, "Where are her people?" Just in the spectrum of assessing our change in climate. Let's check it out.

• 28:18Speaker 02

  Where we stand is on the data. We're the guys that collect the data, that archive the data so that national climate records are held by NOAA.

• 28:28Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  All about the data.

• 28:29Speaker 02

  It's all about the data. This is what the data say. This is what...

• 28:32Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Let the record show, she knows that data is a plural.

• 28:35Speaker 02

  (laughing) It is.

• 28:37Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay. And is used in a sentence, and just that way.

• 28:40Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 28:41Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay.

• 28:42Speaker 02

  If you take the data and you add, you know, basic physics, and the physics of how adding extra gases to the atmosphere might affect the climate. We live on a greenhouse planet. We would not be here.

• 28:53Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Of course.

• 28:54Speaker 02

  We're not a natural greenhouse.

• 28:55Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  We'd all be frozen over.

• 28:56Speaker 02

  Yeah. The, you know, the most abundant greenhouse gas in our atmosphere is water vapor.

• 28:59Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And that's not widely appreciated, because I try to tell this every occasion. So, you go to the desert, where there's very little water vapor in the air. So, it heats up in the daytime, and then it rapidly cools.

• 29:12Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 29:13Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  None of that heat is kept overnight.

• 29:14Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 29:15Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Because you don't have this blanket of insulation from moist air.

• 29:18Speaker 02

  And summertime temperatures here, when it's sticky hot and stays hot like all day and overnight, it's the moisture that holds it.

• 29:25Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Mm-hmm.

• 29:26Speaker 02

  But so can CO2.

• 29:27Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So does CO2.

• 29:29Speaker 02

  So does CO2 and bromine.

• 29:30Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  I can say it, so does CO2.

• 29:32Speaker 02

  It does.

• 29:33Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yeah.

• 29:34Speaker 02

  Bromine, methane, bromine and other compounds.

• 29:35Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Uh-huh.

• 29:36Speaker 02

  Well, when we take coal out of the ground, or oil out of the ground and burn it, we're vaporizing solid CO2. It's been stored in a liquid or solid reservoir for millions or thousands of years.

• 29:49Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So, to take us another step here, we've invited another guest, a Columbia colleague of yours. We have Linda Sol. Linda, welcome to StarTalk.

• 29:58Speaker 06

  Thank you, Neil.

• 29:59Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yeah. So Linda, you've got the coolest job title ever. You are a paleoclimatologist.

• 30:07Speaker 06

  Yes, I am.

• 30:08Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Tell us what, I think I know what it is, but I want to hear you say it.

• 30:11Speaker 06

  I study climates of the past Earth. So, ancient climate, really anything at any point in Earth's history that's not modern.

• 30:19Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So, all your life forms are dead, and all the weather that you're talking about has already happened?

• 30:24Speaker 06

  Yes.

• 30:27Speaker 06

  Yes.

• 30:27Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So you guys are experts at climate, but from different angles.

• 30:30Speaker 06

  Yes.

• 30:31Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And we have this understanding, emergent understanding, of the role of CO2 in our atmosphere. And is there, is there much agreement in these communities about what it is, where it's going, and why?

• 30:43Speaker 06

  Yes, I believe so. Um, you know, it's, it's really a, a pretty fundamental issue at the heart of all of this. We've known since the 1850s that there are these things called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is an important one. We've known that those greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere, and if you have more greenhouse gas, you warm the atmosphere more. And we have the data that shows the changing levels of CO2 with time, since about 1850 or so, caused by human activity. So that includes things like fossil fuel burning, but it can also include some other activities. But with CO2 increasing, there really is no question that climate has to change to

• 31:26Speaker 06

  accommodate that, that push, that forcing.

• 31:30Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So, basically, tell us exactly what CO2 does in the atmosphere.

• 31:35Speaker 06

  So CO2 is an interesting molecule, um, that's sort of shaped like a V, and it has the ability to vibrate.

• 31:43Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  A V, so it's carbon is in the middle.

• 31:44Speaker 06

  Carbon's in the middle and oxygen's on, on either end.

• 31:47Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay.

• 31:47Speaker 06

  And it has the ability...

• 31:48Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  You like my CO2 here?

• 31:49Speaker 06

  Yeah, it's like that.

• 31:50Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay.

• 31:51Speaker 06

  And it, and it has the ability to absorb heat and re-emmit it. And the more molecules that we have like this, the more, uh, the atmosphere is capable of capturing that heat and then re-emmitting it back down toward the Earth. It's, it's the blanket that keeps us warm. And normally, that's a benign thing. Um, but when we have more CO2, then perhaps might be comfortable, we start to see some changes.

• 32:15Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  In fact, without it, Earth would be really cold.

• 32:19Speaker 06

  Yes, it would.

• 32:20Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Like uncomfortably cold.

• 32:22Speaker 06

  Yes, it would.

• 32:23Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And, in fact, uh, without greenhouse gases, Earth might completely freeze over.

• 32:28Speaker 06

  You don't even have to get rid of greenhouse gases altogether to get to a state where Earth can be frozen over.

• 32:36Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So we have an image of this. It's called Snowball Earth.

• 32:39Speaker 06

  Uh...

• 32:39Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  That would be bad if that happened.

• 32:41Speaker 06

  Yeah, that's a, that's a reasonable representation.

• 32:44Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Don't say that. Say, this isn't exact... Don't tell me it's reasonable, because this is, this is nasty. But this would thrill fans of Frozen, I think.

• 32:55Speaker 06

  So around 2 billion years or so ago, we think that this was more or less what Earth might have looked like from space.

• 33:01Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Ice.

• 33:02Speaker 06

  Mm-hmm.

• 33:03Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Was this from an absence of greenhouse gases?

• 33:06Speaker 06

  So it would have been from a severe drop in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, yes.

• 33:13Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  If you drop your greenhouse gases, what dropped them?

• 33:15Speaker 06

  We think that it's highly probable that microorganisms that were doing photosynthesis, you know, for the first time in Earth's history, generating lots of oxygen, actually changed the chemistry of the atmosphere and basically destroyed a strong greenhouse gas effect that had been keeping the planet warm despite the fact that the sun was much dimmer.

• 33:44Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Ooh, so this is before there was any complex life on Earth?

• 33:48Speaker 06

  This is 2 billion years ago, so basically microbes swimming in the ocean.

• 33:52Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  That's it?

• 33:53Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 33:54Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Doing the backstroke.

• 33:55Speaker 06

  Yep. Singing "Let It Go."

• 33:57Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Well, you study, what's this period, the Pleiocene?

• 34:08Speaker 06

  So the Pleiocene is one of the warm periods that we study. It is not the warmest in Earth's history, but it's the most recent one in Earth's history where CO2 levels in the atmosphere were pretty much where they are right now, around 400 ppm.

• 34:23Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So you have data on what this could be, what this is?

• 34:25Speaker 06

  Yes, we do.

• 34:26Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So what it, go on.

• 34:28Speaker 06

  So in the world of the Pleiocene, you know, roughly 3 million years ago or so, with 400 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere...

• 34:37Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Parts per million.

• 34:38Speaker 06

  Parts per million. We know that the global average temperature was between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius warmer than modern. We had much smaller ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, and to go along with that, sea levels were probably at least 25 meters higher than today, that's about 81 feet higher. So if you can imagine a world where, for example, Florida is completely flooded out and a lot of the coastal areas of what would become the United States later are also flooded, that's the Pleiocene world.

• 35:14Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So what is not widely appreciated is why sea levels rise. And because I don't think we connect the fact that you have water that is on land

• 35:24Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 35:25Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  and not moving, and that's called glaciers or ice. You start melting those puppies.

• 35:30Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 35:31Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  They just dribble into the ocean and the ocean levels rise.

• 35:33Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 35:34Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And it's it's hard to conceive that there's that much water that's not in the ocean that could be.

• 35:39Speaker 03

  Mm-hmm.

• 35:40Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So.

• 35:41Speaker 03

  But it's true.

• 35:42Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  What are we doing about this?

• 35:43Speaker 03

  Well, we're starting to see some heartening signs, I would say. I mean, the two things we can really do are to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions, right, to change our society, and also to prepare for some of these climate changes that are already locked in because, as Linda just indicated, even if greenhouse gas concentrations could stabilize where they are today, we're locked into a lot of additional sea level rise. Basically, there's all this momentum, climate momentum, that we still haven't seen.

• 36:11Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  A lot of CO2 gets absorbed into the ocean and comes out later.

• 36:15Speaker 03

  That's right. Yeah, and also a lot of these molecules stay in the atmosphere for 100 years or more.

• 36:20Bill Nye?

  Sounds like a big liberal lie to me. Quit lying to us.

• 36:34Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So, but Linda, it sounds like you've got the answers because you've seen major climatic shift that happened by natural causes that could clue us in to what we are creating by unnatural causes. So what's your best warning you can give us?

• 36:50Speaker 03

  We need to find a way to cap the emissions that we are currently creating as a civilization so that we can basically come to a stopping point in change that, while it's not going to be fun or easy for civilization as we know it, is still adaptable.

• 37:13Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So if we're 400 parts per million now.

• 37:16Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 37:17Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  What was it in 1850?

• 37:18Speaker 03

  In 1850, it was about 285.

• 37:21Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So we've increased it by at least 50%?

• 37:24Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 37:25Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Yes. In 150 years?

• 37:26Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 37:27Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And for Earth to do that on its own would take how long?

• 37:35Speaker 03

  Well, the closest comparable change is from the time of the last glacial maximum. So that's the most recent ice age, the furthest advance of the ice across North America and Europe. That was about 21,000 years ago. And CO2 in the atmosphere then was about 180 parts per million. So from 21,000 years ago to the year 1850, by natural processes alone, Earth increased CO2 in the atmosphere by about 100 parts per million. We have well exceeded that in just over 160 years through human activity.

• 38:13Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And we're blowing past, so it's not like we're stabilized at 400 parts per million?

• 38:17Speaker 03

  No, we're still going.

• 38:18Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  We're blowing past this?

• 38:19Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 38:20Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay. So the problem is not what the level is, the problem is the rate at which it's changing and the ability of civilization to respond to it.

• 38:26Speaker 03

  Mm-hmm.

• 38:27Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So something that many people get confused about, and that's the difference between climate and weather.

• 38:33Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 38:34Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And when we think of weather, we think of is it going to rain, was the temperature, humidity, you know, precipitation of any kind, atmospheric pressure, these are the things in the here and the now. And then the climate is sort of the average of this.

• 38:47Speaker 03

  Right.

• 38:48Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And why should we believe that you can predict the future of climate if you can't predict the weather more than five days from now?

• 38:55Speaker 03

  So it's

• 38:56Speaker 01

  Is that a fair question?

• 38:57Speaker 03

  It's a very fair question, I think, but they are quite different questions. When we're talking about climate, as you just said, it's the long-term statistics. There's random natural variability from one week to a next, one year to the next that's very difficult to predict. But the idea with climate is that the statistics sort of balance out over time. So if you're planning for the future, if you're trying to decide how high a seawall should be, what levels of heat extremes to plan for for the future, we can say with a lot of confidence that the statistics are changing and we should plan for it, even if we can't tell you in the weather sense exactly what day you're going to get that heat extreme in the year, say, 2024.

• 39:39Speaker 03

  So it's, one is, you can say that climate is what you expect and weather is what you get.

• 39:45Speaker 01

  But there are people, you know, who will deny climate change for one thing, and I'm wondering if the evidence over the course of the last two decades is backing up that prediction.

• 39:56Speaker 03

  I'd say for the most part it is. I mean, there are challenges when you look at 10 years or 20 years seems like a very long time, but at those time scales, there actually is a fair amount of natural variability, which is largely unpredictable. As we go to longer time scales, 30 years, 40 years, and especially in the future as greenhouse gas concentrations, the source of so much of this projected warming, as those go up, the statistics are really going to change in a way where we can say there's going to be more heat waves, more frequent coastal flooding of the type that we've seen during severe weather events. So you can't necessarily see all the things just by looking at the last 10 or 20 years, but if you take a longer view, there's a lot we're already seeing

• 40:38Speaker 03

  that we've predicted. Sea level rise, the idea that the atmosphere would warm, that some of the ice sheets would retreat, the upper ocean would warm. A lot of those predictions that we get from greenhouse gas projections are playing out in the long term, even if you don't always see them, if you just look at the last 10 years, where there can be a lot of that variability you talked about.

• 40:58Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Okay. So when we come back, Bill Nye the Science Guy gives his thoughts on the science of climate change when StarTalk returns.

• 41:18Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Welcome back to StarTalk. We're talking about the climate of our planet and forces that could render it uninhabitable for life as we know it. For America's chief climate top dog, Kathy Sullivan, head of NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this is all about sharing the love and the data. Let's check it out.

• 41:46Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So the world uses our data?

• 41:48Speaker 02

  The world does use our data, and we, about 2/3 of the data we use in our weather forecasting come from other countries. Every country exchanges weather data, you know, free, no charge.

• 41:58Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  You guys don't fight each other?

• 41:59Speaker 02

  No. Man, no one can do a weather forecast without the whole globe. You measure your bits, I'll measure mine.

• 42:06Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  You actually cooperate with Russia?

• 42:08Speaker 02

  We do.

• 42:10Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  What a concept.

• 42:12Speaker 02

  And this goes back to the olden days where it was guys slinging instruments in the air and all handheld. And the data have continued to be shared even when countries have been at war. It's just like cruised through real political tensions and big hostilities because it's just too critical.

• 42:28Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  That's a profound fact.

• 42:29Speaker 02

  It is. And, you know, that's why you can do a weather forecast. You have to sample the entire globe.

• 42:34Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  As Carl Sagan once said, "Air molecules don't carry passports."

• 42:37Speaker 02

  They don't.

• 42:38Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  They go wherever the hell they want.

• 42:38Speaker 02

  They do. And the one that was over you yesterday is over me now, so we gotta exchange the data. Take it back.

• 42:50Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  You know something important is going on when politics can't even get in the way of it? So, how does this play into the Paris Agreement that we hear so much about?

• 43:00Speaker 03

  Okay, so the Paris Agreement, what was special that happened in December of 2015 was that the countries of the world came together and formally pledged to limit the amount of warming to 2 degrees Celsius, about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit, above that pre-industrial climate of 1850, before carbon dioxide levels had gone up by about 40%. And this is critically important because the further we push the climate system, the bigger the potential for surprises. We know we're gonna see sea level rise, we know we're gonna see frequent, more frequent flooding of our coastal cities, more heatwaves, more heavy rain events, and paradoxically, more droughts as well. And because it's Paris, probably a lot more mistresses?

• 43:45Speaker 03

  That kind of agreement?

• 43:46Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Is that how they, that's how they roll over in Paris, right? So, this requires a level of international participation that may be without precedent.

• 43:57Speaker 03

  That's right.

• 43:58Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And where are we in this, the United States?

• 44:01Speaker 03

  Well, the United States, per capita, remains the biggest emitter of fossil fuels. We've been surpassed. U.S.A.

• 44:07Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  Number one.

• 44:10Speaker 03

  So, basically, all the countries, given the scale of the challenge, though, all the countries of the world are gonna have to dramatically reduce their emissions. But it's fair to say that historically, the US has been responsible for more greenhouse gas emissions than any other country. Remember, they last in the atmosphere 100 years.

• 44:28Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  But, per capita is one thing, and I get that, but we have 1/4 the population that China does. So, are we the number-one greenhouse gas?

• 44:38Speaker 03

  No, China is the top overall emitter. And as we go out further into the future, some of the other countries with very large populations, such as India, could potentially surpass us as well. But maybe, as we see some cooperation from countries, it starts to send a signal to the private sector, for example, that this is the way that the wind is blowing, in a sense. We just have to hope that this uptake of renewable energies, and we need other technology too, right? Battery storage, for example, new transformers. We have to hope that that societal tipping point that can get us those changes happens fast enough relative to the potential rapid shifts in climate and societal impacts, changes in agriculture and things like that. So, it's a huge, it's a race against the clock.

• 45:23Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  So, before we wrap, I want to catch up with my good friend, Bill Nye, the Science Guy, to get his take on the planet's changing climate. Let's check it out.

• 45:36Bill Nye?

  When scientists look at the ice in places like Siberia, Antarctica, or Greenland, they can tell that the world's getting warmer. Now, I've been to Greenland. I've been to the East Greenland Ice Core Research Project. I've seen them pull the ice right out of the ice sheet. And what scientists do is measure the neutrons in the water. They look at the atmosphere that's trapped in little bubbles between the tines of the snowflakes. They look at tree rings and the growth rates. They look at pictures from outer space. They've collated all these data, and they produced a graph, which looks about like this. Where the world has been about the same temperature for several thousand years. But in the last 250 years, since humans started burning coal and oil like crazy,

• 46:20Bill Nye?

  the world has gotten warmer, faster and faster. Everybody, it's not just that the world's getting warmer. What the hockey stick shows us is the speed, it's the rate that the world's getting warmer. These are the facts. So we're gonna have to change the way we live. Now, look, at this point, you might expect some hilarious hockey pun, like, "Nature's gonna put us in the penalty box," or, "Nature's gonna give us a slapshot right to the face." But, this is serious. Climate change is the most serious problem humans face. We gotta get to work. Back to you, Neil.

• 47:01Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  See, you know what I wonder? When I look back in the 1960s, we were going to the moon. One of the most famous images ever is Earthrise over the lunar landscape. And there was Earth, as nature intended you to see it. Before then, there wasn't much illustrations of Earth with clouds. Earth, draw Earth, you draw like the ball, oceans, land, and that's it. Clouds was like something else. Now, you will never see someone illustrate Earth without clouds. The atmosphere entered our understanding of what Earth is. It's not just the solid ball. It's the air we breathe as well.

• 47:42Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And you realize the air on Earth is about as thick as the skin is to an apple. Our atmosphere is to Earth. So I claim that what happened then, over those years we were going to the moon, is that we went to the moon to explore the moon, and we discovered Earth for the first time.

• 48:10Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  That's why the Environmental Protection Agency is founded, 1970. NOAA, 1970. Earth Day, 1970. And you know something? The planet doesn't give a rat's ass about us. It really doesn't. It'll be here long after we are extinct. So the real question is, can we be good shepherds of this planet? The very planet that's keeping us alive without any fear that we will be the source of our own demise. For me, space brings us that cosmic perspective. A cosmic perspective that may save us from ourselves. Ladies and gentlemen, you've been watching StarTalk. And I've been your host, Neil deGrasse Tyson.

• 48:55Neil deGrasse Tyson?

  And as always, I bid you to keep looking up.