Tavi Costa, Global Macro Analyst at Crescat Capital: What Will Happen To Crypto During a Global Recession

Tavi Costa is a Global Macro Analyst at Crescat Capital. In this conversation, Tavi and Anthony Pompliano discuss Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, the current U. S. economic markets, China, precious metals, how central bankers handle recessions, and what Tavi thinks is most likely to occur in the macro world over the next few months. -----Curious about Cryptocurrency but don’t know where to begin? Storm Play is a free and fun way to start earning in exchange for you time. Simply download, register and discover microtasks that meet your interests and be rewarded with Storm Bolts. These Bolts can then be converted and withdrawn into your favorite cryptocurrency, including Storm Token, Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC.). Earn cryptocurrency rewards by playing new games and trying out cool products! Download the app to start earning crypto here! https://bit.ly/30pSxh9 (Available for iOS and Android). -----If you enjoyed this conversation, share it with your colleagues & friends, rate, review, and subscribe. This podcast is presented by BlockWorks Group. For exclusive content and events that provide insights into the crypto and blockchain space, visit them at: https://www.blockworksgroup.io

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to Off the Chain, simply the best podcast in crypto. Let's kick this thing off.

• 0:12Anthony Pompliano?

  Tavi Costa is a global macro analyst at Crest Cat Capital. In this conversation, we discuss Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, the current US economic markets, China, precious metals, how central bankers handle recessions, and what Tavi thinks is likely to occur over the next few months in the macro world. I really enjoyed this conversation, and I hope you do as well. Are you curious about cryptocurrency, and you don't know where to begin? I've got a great way for you to try. You can use Stormplay, a free and fun way to start earning in exchange for your time. That's right, you don't necessarily have to make a financial

• 0:54Anthony Pompliano?

  investment to begin. You can simply download, register, and then discover these microtasks that they present you that meet your interest, and then you're rewarded with these Stormbolts. The Bolts are then converted and can be withdrawn into your favorite cryptocurrency, including the Storm token, Ethereum, or my favorite Bitcoin. If you go and download the Stormplay app today, you can earn cryptocurrency rewards by playing new games and trying out cool new products. It's worth a try, and it's a great way to get started. Remember, go check out Stormplay in the App Store today. Anthony Pompliano is a partner at Morgan Creek Digital. All opinions expressed by Pomp or his guests on this podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Morgan Creek Digital or Morgan Creek Capital Management. You should not

• 1:36Anthony Pompliano?

  treat any opinion expressed by Pomp as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Alright guys, bang, bang. I am super excited. This might be one of the podcast episodes I've looked forward to the most. I've got Tavi here with me, and he's going to do his best to share kind of a bunch of data and thoughts around answering the question just what is going on in the global macro environment. So, sir, thank you so much for taking the time to do this.

• 2:14Speaker 01

  Hey Pomp, thank you very much for having me, and I look forward to the conversation as well.

• 2:19Speaker 02

  For sure. For those that don't know, maybe let's just start with your background and kind of where you work and everything, so they understand the perspective that you're coming at this from.

• 2:26Speaker 01

  Yeah, so I was born and raised in Brazil. I moved to the US right in the midst of the whole global financial crisis. I was back then recruited to play tennis in college at Liberty University in Virginia. Then I moved to a private school in St. Louis, finished up my bachelor's degree, moved to Denver, start working for Kresge Capital. Been working here for about six years and I mostly, my job was initially on most on emerging markets side of things and I kind of graduated from that and start covering more global macro research. And so today, along with Kevin Smith, we manage the Kresge's portfolio. We have three strategies

• 3:05Speaker 01

  there, global macro fund, a long short and a large cap strategy. And as part of the investment process, I build a lot of macro and equity fundamental models and that really help us to develop macro themes that then we invest accordingly. So it's a few things that I've done, one of them being the Kresge's macro model that I think was a big change in our investment process in the recent years.

• 3:36Speaker 02

  Got it. Okay, so let's get right into the meat of this, which is what's going on in the global environment? I think there's a lot of folks in crypto who they frankly hear the pro crypto or pro Bitcoin argument. And the part of the conversation that gets left out a lot in that Bitcoin and crypto community is the global macro environment. So maybe just start with, you know, your take on are good things happening, bad things happening, and then any data that you can share around maybe some of the warning signs that you're seeing.

• 4:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, so you know, we work on three major themes in our portfolio today, which I think helps to understand the macro environment we're in. The number one being how we think US stocks and almost like global stocks are historically overvalued in so many ways, fundamentally speaking, especially public markets, but also there are a few private markets that look the same way. The second thing that we found is China being that kind of the center of a lot of the macro imbalances, especially regarding the credit levels that they have built since the global financial crisis, and we think that that's kind of in the process of reverting.

• 4:51Speaker 01

  And in China being, you know, this world-leading economy that helps the world to grow is unlikely to continue in the following years. And the third one is this kind of safe haven aspect of assets that we're very excited about, which is, in our view, is end up being precious metals. But the whole idea really is, you know, if you want to boil down to a phrase, is that there is a disconnect of several asset prices that are near historical levels or at historical levels with, you know, all this debt imbalances that we see globally across government, household,

• 5:32Speaker 01

  business sectors, and there is a strong potential for a brutal worldwide financial downturn that we think it's likely to happen in two to three years here, horizon.

• 5:42Speaker 02

  Got it, and so as you look out across the various markets, maybe like, what are those major warning signs that you're seeing or data points that you're really paying attention to and you're pointing back to and being like, look, this specifically gives us pause or concern?

• 5:58Speaker 01

  So there are multiple ones. We build, we're now actually putting out a few, you know, what we call a macro deck that has, you know, a deck of charts of what we see as macro signs, and I'll go through a few of them. Here in the US, we found initially that US stocks are at historical levels in terms of valuations in eight fundamental factors, five of them Essentially all time highs and and three of them are are pretty close to it. And that's not a surprise for a lot of people, but is, you know, the the argument is, you know, stocks can get as expensive as as they can, but you know, that doesn't necessarily mean that we're at the end of a cycle. We we start seeing is things like the credit markets start showing some some real signs

• 6:42Speaker 01

  of of weakness and especially on the yield curve signs. And we we calculated, and there's a lot of people try to look at yield curve inversions and and spreads between the yield curve. And I I think that that's very important, but we try to come up with a much more comprehensive way of of looking at the yield curve. And we calculate all the forty four possible spreads in the yield curve. We see somewhere close to sixty percent of the yield curve in the U.S. today is is inverted, which is just as high as it was at the peak of the housing and the tech bubble. So that for us was a big warning sign that we built this called the the macro model, Krasquet's macro model, which kind of includes sixteen factors, which is, you know, some

• 7:24Speaker 01

  of them are are economic indicators, fundamental factors, and also a few technicals. It's a very simple model, just, you know, acknowledging there's not one single factor that works through our history to predict recessions, but if you can accumulate all them into one and and give a score, now where are we right now? So we found out that we're somewhere close to the, you know, what we see as as very near, like two percentage points away from record levels, which means record level is is obviously as high as the the score, the the closer you are from from uh from, you know, being at the late at at the business cycle. And this model is does did a very good job at predicting the previous recessions in the tech and the housing bubble. And it really started to turn, you know, the we, you know, this this late stage cycle

• 8:09Speaker 01

  in late twenty fifteen. But that in line with the yield curve inverting in a big way, when we find stuff like consumer confidence being near all time highs and record low unemployment rate, which are both contrarian indicators that tend to look great. At the peak of a cycle, and you know, things like sixty percent of the of PMIs of manufacturing indices around the world right now are below fifty, which is a recessionary level. JP Morgan Global PMI now below fifty as well. You know, and then the other thing really is two-year yields. Two-year yields are a must-watch and everyone's monitor should

• 8:49Speaker 01

  be, you know, should be given a huge emphasis to that research because it's very simple and it has a perfect track record. If you look at two-year yields all the way back to the nineteen seventies and and you you do it in a log version and you connect the tops and it creates this resistance, multi-decade resistance line. And every time the two-year yields touches that line and starts to drop significantly, that means that we're either late in the cycle or already at the beginning of a of a of a crisis. So the point here is that what is the credit market telling you when you look at the two-year yields? Is they're telling you that there's a chance that the Fed is going to start easing significantly

• 9:30Speaker 01

  here in the near term? And when you see that at record valuations and late in the business cycle, obviously that never ends well. It's always has always been a a problem for markets. The other one that we found that was, you know, that I actually tweeted today, which I think it's extremely important, is the convergence of policies of of of money of the Federal Reserve versus the ECB. And there it's it's an interesting, you can calculate that in different ways. One way we found is looking at the yields. If you can, if you just calculate the spread of US five-year yield versus the German five-year yield, you can see that they tend to converge as you as you get very late in the business

• 10:13Speaker 01

  cycle. And it's again, another macro sign here flashing, you know, warning signal again. And, you know, we're now breaking down from a multi-year trend line and it's and it's very scary. It's another one. Not not not to mention the other things like, you know, those divergences that we're seeing in in US stocks versus. The rest of the world index or small cap stocks or transports or this copper. Copper is diverging from US stocks by over thirty five percent. So, I mean, the list goes on and on and on, and it's just incredible to us how disconnected asset prices are.

• 10:51Speaker 01

  And we think it's a huge opportunity right now to be, you know, one way you can do a trade here is, is, is that we like a lot is being long precious metals and short stocks. And that ratio just started to work now, and we think it's, there's a huge opportunity for that to, to move up in the upper way, much, much further here.

• 11:11Speaker 02

  Got it. And so maybe let's go to the inverted yield curve, because I think a lot of people hear that. But they don't actually understand what that means. Maybe can you explain what that means and why it's so significant?

• 11:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, there's, there's a lot of explanations for that. Well, first of all, the, the most famous one is looking at the ten year yields versus the two year yields. And idea being, well, first, you know, Fed tends to hike interest rates. Kind of approaching the late stages of the cycle here, which happened in the last two years or so. And as that happens, the short, the front end of the curve starts rising and therefore, you know, starts to cause the inversion. The second thing you start seeing is that people or investors in the credit markets, we tend to be sort of a bellwether for stocks and the economy. Especially in the long end of the curve, the ten year yields, the thirty year yields, they started lower or fall apart.

• 12:07Speaker 01

  Because investors are just, you know, searching for, for a safe haven and they're concerned about the, you know, the long term conditions of, of the economy. So you start seeing that, you can see that the results of, you know, either long term rates start dropping. And then, and then you can see that the, the front end of the curve starts rising a little bit, and that causes the inversion. The one thing we haven't found yet is, is this inversion in the ten versus twos, which is one of the most popular. And people, you know, and that, that really was, was a flaw in, in, in the bearish thesis that we had. And, and for me, that was, will cause creating this, this more comprehensive research of looking at, you know, all possible spreads in the yield curve and how many of them are inverted.

• 12:52Speaker 01

  But you know, there are so many ways you can look at inversions. Other, and there's a very interesting research from Professor Campbell Harvey, um, uh, Duke Finance Professor, and he was looking at 10-year yields versus three-month yields and five-year yields versus three-month yields. And then when, when they invert for a full quarter, in other words, 90 days of, of inversion, it tends to lead to a economic crisis in, in, in 12 to 18 months. That has a perfect track record as well. We're now over 120, I believe 121 days of, of, of that the five-year versus three-month yield is inverted today. We put out a chart on this, it's very interesting. Every time that that happens, we've seen a recession follow.

• 13:36Speaker 01

  So, you know, those are all, you know, important parts of, of, of the yield curve that I think, you know, everyone should be, should be paying attention to. And the other argument we hear a lot is that, okay, well, yield, yield curve inversions happen and then it takes another one or two years until a recession really materializes itself. And that's not true at all. People are just using one sample here, which is 08 or really 06 when that inverted. And, and it took another one or two years until things really start manifesting itself. But if you look back in 2000, uh, 2000, the inversion happened exactly, precisely at the time when, when the markets start falling apart. The same thing happened in the seventies, you know?

• 14:16Speaker 01

  So there are, uh, other years or other periods of, in history, that the yield curve tends to take a little longer to, to, uh, to really, uh, um, uh, trigger a recession. But in other times that it doesn't, actually, you know, it's, it's actually precisely at the same time. And there was one time in history that the yield curve inversion happened, uh, uh, even, even, I mean, you know, it's, it's right during the, the period of, of, of a bear market rally, which was in the early seventies as well, which we thought that we were in this in the beginning of the year. Um, so, you know, there, there are several ways of looking at the yield curve. It's, it's obviously a problem and I think ignoring that is at your own cost of, but,

• 14:58Speaker 01

  um, you know, we're, you know, we see this as, as an issue, you know, this, if you look Back inversions tend to be very positive for for safe haven and precious metals especially. Uh, every time you have an inversion in the yield curve, uh, you start seeing gold to S and P five hundred ratio to rise. We've seen that throughout history, which I think is the best trade. Why? Because you don't know. I don't have a crystal ball when US stocks are gonna are gonna peak. Um, but what I do know is that gold to S and P five hundred ratio starts to rise, especially in oh six. So oh six inversion happened. The recession didn't happen until, you know, oh eight, oh seven, late oh seven. So, you know, but if you're long this ratio, you actually made money, uh, while waiting for the recession.

• 15:42Speaker 01

  So those are, you know, few instruments you one could use as a way of of of of finding opportunities out there.

• 15:50Speaker 02

  Got it. And and so when we look at this and we say, let's believe the indicators, right? You know, the inverted yield curve, etc. And we say, you know, there is some sort of downturn that is on the horizon. How do you think about evaluating the severity of a downturn, right? So it's one thing just to say, uh, we've been in one of the longest bull markets, if not the longest bull market in history. Things just continue to look like they're going up into the right, but that's gonna change at some point. Okay, we think it's on the, you know, short horizon. Is that a ten percent drop, twenty, eighty, like we saw, you know, kind of in the in the global financial crisis? Like, what do you see there? How do you measure and think about that?

• 16:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, um, you know, Howard Marks, uh, did a great job at describing this, but talking about how markets tend to move like a pendulum, are the words. Um, if we're expecting valuations to go back to normal levels, especially in public markets, which is a more, uh, immeasurable way of of of of looking at quantifying where we are. Well, right now, to go back to the medium levels of S and P 500, you know, fundamental factors, you would go back, let's say, forty percent or so contraction in S and P to see in prices to see we go back to normal levels. But, you know, as we know throughout history and how our markets did a great job at this,

• 17:14Speaker 01

  as I said, is that it tends to move like a pendulum. In other words, it tends to move farther than the median level. So, you know, if you would, you know, if you would believe in that and believe that history tends to repeat itself, we're likely to see further than a forty percent decline in US stocks to go back to normal levels. And I think, I think that once it reaches the forty to forty-five percent level, if it does happen and, you know, and we're, you know, managing money and we're seeing this happening, I think that that would be a time to start looking at taking the other side of the trade. Right now, we're not even close to that. We're on the other side of it still.

• 17:55Speaker 01

  And, you know, when I see, you know, in bear markets, they, you know, they have phases. You have to watch out when you have like a twenty, twenty-five, even thirty percent drop, you have to take some of the table and wait for a little bounce, which happens quite a lot. The bear market rallies sometimes, at least in the last recessions, we've seen kind of a, the bear market kind of broke down in three phases. So there's a first lag of the bear market, twenty to twenty-five percent decline, and the markets kind of retrace back like fifteen percent and it falls again. And the third part of the bear market tends to be the most severe, that really, you know, everyone panics and that's the time when you want to start taking off your, or covering

• 18:39Speaker 01

  your shorts and start taking other positions and everyone's talking about recession that we're not going to see asset prices rising again. That's exactly the time to do the opposite. But we're not seeing that yet. We're way far away. I mean, we're, if you looked at, you know, just the global stocks in general, or just the rest of the world, the rest of the world is essentially already in a, not, I wouldn't say, and maybe it's going to be proven. In a few years, if the bear market really started, but I think the bear market started for the rest of the world. The US, you know, it's still obviously all time highs and um we're seeing a few, you know, a few things like like I mentioned, you know, transports and small caps already diverging from the S and P uh which I think already started to show some cracks that that this

• 19:23Speaker 01

  that this recession is is is really close to to starting here, uh a lot closer than a lot of people think, I would say.

• 19:29Speaker 02

  Got it. And and so when this occurs, you know, both from a historical perspective and also kind of what you're seeing right now, is this something where we see the recession kind of kickstart in a single uh geography or jurisdiction and then there's kind of like a domino effect around the world? Does it all happen at once? Like, what is your kind of expectation uh um or belief as to how it actually uh sequentially happens?

• 19:56Speaker 01

  That's a good question, because if we've been so far in this conversation focusing more on the US, but we look back in China, um you know, we think that that's, you know, China is is already having huge issues. I mean, it's a it's a probably the largest credit bubble we've seen in history. It's it's a, you know, it's it's a forty forty five trillion dollar banking system on balance sheet assets with another forty five or so trillion dollars of off balance sheet assets. Um, you know, so in absolute terms and relative to GDP terms, it's just a massive bubble. And, you know, we're seeing already this not yet or, you know, in the official numbers, I want to be, I mean, it's perhaps not official

• 20:37Speaker 01

  uh or or or true, um but but, you know, the GDP numbers are still going higher, obviously, but we see, you know, significant uh um uh changes of, let's say, you know, the fourth quarter of twenty eighteen, the median stock price in China was down forty percent. I don't know in history, any other country that had a, you know, a it's stock market declining in in in such a severe way and that didn't cause a recession. Um, but hey, you know, China's still showing, you know, that everything is is is mostly fine and they're not yet in a recession. Obviously, you know, China was responsible for over fifty percent of GDP growth uh in the world um since the global financial crisis.

• 21:17Speaker 01

  If we're seeing a reversing path of of that, you know, obviously, we think that the global markets are going to be in trouble. So I think that, you know, that's that's the one part of the of the puzzle that is very important is China, right? China being this this massive credit bubble that is about to burst. And what we've been wrong about this is that didn't burst it all at once. It's bursting slowly but surely. And, you know, you're seeing the other cracks in places like Canada and Australia. Look at Canadian housing prices or Australian housing prices is starting to to to decelerate or decline and depending on the area. Which, you know, our countries that had, you know, significant, um, um, the most of the capital outflows from China have been exacerbating

• 22:02Speaker 01

  house prices in places like Australia and Canada and also Hong Kong. Um, so when we talk about yield curve inversions, for instance, in the U.S., as as was alluding to, which is a big deal. This is not only a problem in the U.S., it's a problem globally. Hong Kong yield curve is close to eighty percent inverted today. Um, Canada is close to seventy percent inverted today. So, you know, we're seeing issues all over the world. Uh, today about seventeen economies have their their thirty year yields lower than overnight rates in the U.S. I mean, every time we've had this in history, we had a global recession, a global turmoil. Uh, we're now seeing political issues in places like China, especially Hong Kong.

• 22:46Speaker 01

  Um, I also don't know any time in history, and I'm from Brazil, and I had a situation very similar in twenty fourteen. Uh, when Dilma Rousseff was was was impeached. Um, what happened with the currency? The currency, you know, was was demolished. Uh, it declined a ton. Sure, U.S. stocks went up at a cost, uh, I'm sorry, not U.S. stocks, um, uh, Brazilian stocks went up, but at a cost. The currency got, uh, in in serious trouble. Argentina was the same problem. So there are several ways and when it manifests itself, obviously every time the US catches a cold here, the rest of the world is in trouble. So, you know, we know that the US being this historical, and when I'm talking about historic, I'm talking about for decades,

• 23:31Speaker 01

  the US has been kind of lifting the world economy for a long time. And, you know, if we're very pessimistic in this, in a domestic market here, we obviously think that that's going to have serious consequences to the rest of the world. But China is a big one and now we're seeing this sort of a huge fight between the US and China politically, or geopolitically speaking, which, you know, just also accelerates the whole problem. There's no way that we're going to see any, in my opinion, we're going to see any significant deal agreement between the two countries that will, you know, become prosperous for the whole world. I mean, China wants, it still is an economy that depends on exporting goods.

• 24:16Speaker 01

  I mean, that's the real true. And when people say, no, it's kind of a moving away from that economic model. Well, look at retail sales and car sales and so forth. Everything is either, you know, 15-year lows or, you know, or plunging. So, you know, we're not seeing that transition at all. So I think that that's, you know, the puzzle really is, US is, in my opinion, in trouble here. We're overdue for recession. We have all these warning signals domestically. Globally, we're seeing issues as well. So what are the places that are most, you know, perhaps overvalued or places that look more troubling?

• 24:58Speaker 01

  I think there are, you know, Australian banks, Canadian banks, some Hong Kong and Chinese ADRs. They're still all-time highs. I'm not talking about the domestic companies. They're all in, not domestic, but the companies that trade in the A-list of shares and so forth. Talking about ADRs, you know, the Babas, Ali Babas of the world, it's still, you know, near record levels. So, you know, I think that that's all going to, unfortunately, it's, you know, it's part of cycles. It's part of the business cycles. It's not that I'm a permabear or anything like that. I just think that we're overdue for a downturn in the economy. And and then things are going to look bright again and it's going to be a great time for you to be a long investor.

• 25:41Speaker 02

  Absolutely. And so as we look out outside the US, right, so China specifically, one of the data points that I heard recently, and it just blew my mind was so globally, the debt level is three times that of GDP. In China, if I remember the data correctly, it's 150% of China's GDP. And it just blew my mind that compared to the US, etc., China's debt level was so high as a percentage of GDP.

• 26:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, it's a just a banking system is for me, you know, I don't think we've ever seen anything like this. I mean, it's over 300% of GDP, just the growth in banking assets from the global financial crisis. It's close to like 400% in normalized terms. I mean, we haven't seen anything like that yet. And it completely dwarfs places like Japan, ECB, or just the Eurozone, US, Canada. I mean, it's really a big problem. And, you know, we're starting to see a few things there, you know, this. Also, there's divergence in monetary policies of the PBOC, this Chinese central bank versus the FAD is a big deal.

• 26:56Speaker 01

  You can see that by calculating the spread between the federal funds rate versus the Shibo rate, overnight rate. And you can see that that spread is at the highest at the highest level since the global financial crisis. In other words, the FAD funds rate is a little bit too high relative to the Shibo rates. And remember, they have a pet currency system, right? So they're supposed to be matching the monetary policy very closely, and they're not being able to do that. And why is that? We think that that's because they're not able to raise rates significantly, otherwise the whole thing is going to collapse. They can't tighten too much. If they tighten too much, things fall apart.

• 27:36Speaker 01

  We've seen that. We've seen many times when they do that, that it causes, you know, bankruptcies or just defaults of major. banks in China, we've we've seen things like that before in the last three to five years. So um uh one of the major ones was in twenty fifteen uh when you know when when there was a mini devaluation of the the Chinese currency. The truth of the matter is that we don't know as ness- nobody knows how it's going to play out necessarily. But one thing we know is that if you look back in history, and that's why I like precious metals specifically, is because it has a long term of of of history here that you can look at. Um gold price, sure, of some some periods of of of uh of uh emerging markets uh credit bust.

• 28:21Speaker 01

  You can see, you know, a a currency devaluing significantly versus the dollar. Some others you see, not that, you see now a currency stays at the same place, but equity markets take a fall. Like the Asian crisis in Hong Kong, the currency didn't didn't fall at all, but what happened was sixty percent decline in Hong Kong um stock prices. So we don't know which one is going to fall apart, right? Sometimes it's both, it's like what we call the twin crisis. The one thing that we found, the pattern that it happens throughout history is that gold prices in local currency terms tend to rise. And when people tell me, hey, gold has not worked for the last five years or so, it hasn't worked in dollar terms. Uh looked at, you know, gold and um in in in Brazilian real or Argentinean peso or Venezuela Venezuelan peso.

• 29:06Speaker 01

  Um you know, all those those places, gold have been in in a great performer. Uh why? Because you had issues politically and economically in those places. China, if you looked at gold in in renminbi terms, it's it's kind of starting to break out, which is obviously a very important sign. Um you know, and we're very long that that that security as well, gold in renminbi terms is one of our trades. Um I think that that's a that's one, you know, likely uh uh development in in markets in the next two to three years as well. As we've seen, if you looked at gold in in renminbi terms, it tends to rise. And there was a situation in um nineteen ninety three when the renminbi, the value close to, it lost one third of its value in one day.

• 29:49Speaker 01

  And and and it was December thirty first of uh of of nineteen ninety three. And and we're not calling for a one day devaluation. I'm just saying that's you know that has had has happened in in history many times in in China. China for the last you know since nineteen hundreds has changed its reset its monetary system. In other words, has created a different currency nine other times. Why is this time different? You know, now on top of that, we have this huge credit imbalance. So I think that you know that you know when you couple that with all these issues that I was talking about, I think that we're very close to the valuation of the of the yuan or a a rise in gold prices in renminbi terms.

• 30:34Speaker 02

  Got it. And and so when you think about these safe haven assets, I I think the first thing is let's you know kind of go over how historically have the safe haven assets performed in these market downturns. And then moving forward, what what do you think is kind of their role in in this market downturn that that it seems to be on the horizon?

• 30:56Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's a it's a good question. So there you know, if you looked at gold, for instance, which one that you can go back in history, a long time, there are times when the gold may not perform as well as a safe haven, even though it doesn't get demolished. Sometimes like in October of oh eight, if I believe I'm right on this date, there was a significant decline in gold prices that then, you know, as the Fed started to ease even further and doing a Kiwi one, Kiwi two, and we saw gold and silver going parabolic at the time, you know, which I think it's a very, you know, we could be in a similar scenario here. So I think that, you know, gold itself is is an interesting asset because, you know, it it can get hurt over time as well during a recession, especially gold

• 31:40Speaker 01

  mining stocks. Now, you know, that's why I like a lot the ratio of gold to S and P five hundred ratio is is key is because that's probably one of the most reliable ones that we've we've had in history that tend to to do really well when when when we see crisis. Now, you know, there, you know, right now, we're not seeing, obviously, there's a lot of people link that gold with inflation, for instance. I think inflation Be just a cherry on top of the whole thesis of precious metals and and safe haven stocks like like, you know, mining stocks in general. But you know, one thing that you should look at, I think, or everyone should look at is the two-year yields, as I said, when they drop. But nominal rates when they drop, it causes real yields to drop as well.

• 32:23Speaker 01

  And if you look at real yields in an inverted version versus gold prices, they follow each other very closely. And for instance, the five-year yield, real yield in the US in an inverted version, if you looked at that chart, it just broke out from a downward trend, which, you know, it would give another support for gold prices to continue to rise as well. So I think that that's, you know, gold here is, as historically has done a great job of storing value. And, you know, what I like about this whole Bitcoin idea, cryptocurrencies in general, is obviously, we, you know, we have similar views in terms of it's very similar ideologies in terms of,

• 33:06Speaker 01

  both of us, you know, the mining, the gold bug mentality and the crypto mentality are both desperate for a better solution than what we have in terms of fiat currency that is backed by, you know, monetary systems that are completely backed by a corrupted and crooked governments. And, you know, so it's kind of, I agree 100% with that. The only reason I like gold more is just because gold has more history and I can really rely on that. But, so I think that that's all, no, I'm very happy to see more people getting behind this thesis that governments shouldn't be running, you know, global fiat anymore.

• 33:47Speaker 01

  And we should maybe be searching for another alternative for that. So I think that's real, the, you know, the whole idea of like gold, you know, let's say gold standard, for instance, it's a, it's a, it's a very interesting thesis, all right? The whole point of that is to bring back discipline for governments, you know? Look how much money we've been printing and how much debt we've got into here in the US and globally. I mean, it's insane. I did a research that since the 1970s, uh, so since the, you know, the, the, the gold standards, we left the gold standards in 1971, um, there was only one presidential term that I was able to grow G, real GDP growth net of, of, of government

• 34:32Speaker 01

  debt. I mean, for me, that's the algorithm of a good government, right? Okay. You're going to grow, uh, the economy. Sure. Grow the economy, but doesn't grow, but, but at the same time, please don't, don't grow that. Uh, we've, uh, I grew up in Brazil and that's been the problem the entire, my entire life, just watching that. And then when I looked at the US, it's the same problem. We've only had one presidential, and I don't want to get political on this at all. This is very apolitical statement. The point is we lost discipline. We lost our minds. We're just printing money and creating more and more debt. At what point are we going to see, um, you know, currencies, um, losing, you know, a destruction of value of, of, of fiat currencies? I think we're getting very close to it, especially because people are, are starting to really, uh, cause this disbelief

• 35:17Speaker 01

  of central banks in general, especially from the, the crypto, um, um, community. I mean, I like that a lot. I sympathize with that idea a lot.

• 35:27Speaker 02

  Got it. And, and so, uh, you know, look, I, I, I have said this before, but I really do think that folks who are interested in gold and precious metals, uh, tend to have drastic overlap with people who are excited about, uh, Bitcoin because they, they tend to agree on a lot of these structural challenges and frankly, failures of legacy, uh, financial system. Um, and as part of that, you know, one of the things that, um, I think a lot about is there's two separate components to legacy financial system that really stick out my mind. There is the central banks and governments, and then there are the financial institutions, right? The four pro, the banks, the financial service companies, et cetera.

• 36:08Speaker 02

  One of the things that has recently, uh, come about is, uh, pressure on the independence of those central banks, right? So we see in Turkey, for example, the removal, um, of, the, uh, the central bank, right? Uh, the central banker and they replace him. Uh, here in the US, we see the president, um, really kind of pressuring, uh, the Federal Reserve and Chairman, et cetera.

• 36:32Speaker 02

  And then something caught my eye recently on Twitter where there was an economist, I think his name is Art Laffer, who came out and said, "Well, maybe the idea of the independence of the Federal Reserve shouldn't actually be in practice, right? Maybe it actually is the government and the president who should be in charge of kind of monetary policy decisions, etc." And that line kind of took me back, right? It almost felt like that idea of independence of the Federal Reserve is like a sacred cow to some degree. But then I read into his argument, what he basically says is, "Look, the policy decisions of the non-economic elements of government are all under the control of the president and the government,

• 37:13Speaker 02

  so why would this be any different?" Right? And the reason why I'm asking this question, I want your opinion on it, is because then I want to talk about what central bankers can do, what the tools they have when we hit these market downturns. But first, just kind of comment on how you think about central bank independence versus maybe some other of these theories or proposals that are now surfacing, given the current environment.

• 37:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, I just, I'm a big fan of discipline and why I like some sort of gold standard or, you know, similar idea to that in which would force governments and central banks to not intervene too much in equity markets. Not at all. Why do we need intervention on that? I think as we soften cycles and or try to soften cycles, we end up making bubbles more extreme. We've seen now, I mean, literally, almost every asset class is at all-time highs, you know, aside from precious metals and other things, but it's insane. You know,

• 38:18Speaker 01

  at some point, you know, we're gonna, we're gonna see something very bad here. I think that governments, the problem of governments, and not so much of central banks, I think yet, but I think that- That can be transferred to central banks too, but mainly, I would just want to make the point, mainly governments and presidential, or presidents in general. It's a political interest, right? Everyone is running for the four years and they want to do the best they can to not let the whole thing collapse in four years and and it doesn't really matter. We're not here running for the long term. We're running for the four years. Obviously, when you see policies like this, you know, like for instance, forcing the central bank here now, the Federal Reserve, to mocking this Federal Reserve to drop interest rates. I mean, why are we dropping interest rates?

• 39:03Speaker 01

  I don't, I don't understand that at all. I think that that's, that's just going to exacerbate the problem. But, so in terms of, of having a more, a more independent version of, of central banks, I personally, I'm on the camp of we don't even need that. We don't even need to subscribe to somebody else's view in terms of who, who is out there who has any crystal ball to understand what's, you know, what's the right decision to make. Obviously, as a money manager and putting my political views aside, which I'm not very actually opinionated on that. I, you know, I, I have to be, I have to think about what are the opportunities of, of, of what we're seeing in terms of,

• 39:47Speaker 01

  you know, reducing interest rates and, and possibility of, of reversing this, this pattern of, of, of depleting assets of, of the Federal Reserve and perhaps start printing money again. If we start seeing things like that, I, I can't see a reason why precious metals would not be, you know, your best

• 40:06Speaker 01

  asset to, to perform in a situation like that. Throughout history, it has been, so why it wouldn't be today? And then when you put that together with being, you know, the, the safe haven aspect of, of precious metals in terms of that, you know, then it makes absolutely sense of, of, of being long, things like that. So. I hope I answer your question, but I'm not a, I'm not of, for some reason, I know I'm not a big fan of intervention at all of markets, especially when I know of, you know, there's no skin in the game for for for president, right? What's their skin in the game is to get reelected. So there's no skin in the game

• 40:46Speaker 01

  in terms of of improving the prosperity of the economy over the long term. All they want to do is to make things better for the short term and and most of those policies are, you know, short driven policies are end up, you know, just just making this what we call, or not us, Jesse Felder did a great job of calling this the everything bubble. I mean, it's it's everything. But I'm, you know, I'm not overly pessimistic about everything. I'm just saying there's obviously we reached extreme levels of valuations all over the world and at some point that's going to matter and perhaps we're getting close to it.

• 41:24Speaker 02

  Got it. And so as we enter into market downturns, historically, central banks have really had two tools, right? They've been able to cut rates and then they introduce quantitative easing. Maybe comment a little bit on, you know, do you think that that's the two tools that they'll fall back on? If there is a market downturn in the short term and then are they going to be effective? Or do you see other tools maybe entering into what central banks can do?

• 41:50Speaker 01

  That's a good question. So, you know, we've heard a lot of our argument or counter arguments to our thesis that, you know, I think you guys are wrong because we're living in a different world and we're going to see money printing and, you know, and to another level that we saw in back then and that's going to cause markets to go up. But I want to remind everyone, if you look back in aggregate all central banks balance sheet back in 2005 or so, right at 2006, all the way to like mid 2008, we printed close to over a trillion dollars of assets back then or of money at the time. And so, you know, that did not prevent the whole global financial crisis to

• 42:35Speaker 01

  to really started to unfold. And then as as we got into the crisis, and this is not including the the first QE from the Fed. As we start really getting into the crisis, we printed over, you know, close to three trillion dollars from the the peak of the bubble, from the bottom of of of of the the crash. And, you know, that's quite interesting to see how, you know, how money printing, you know, when cycles turn. It it's it's, in my view, impossible to or inevitable to to to really control it. So in terms of interest rates cut, interest rate cuts. You know, it's it's another part of the argument of, well, they're going to start, you know, cutting rates and we're, you know, we're it's going to cause

• 43:18Speaker 01

  valuations to, you know, stocks to go parabolic or whatever. First of all, stocks have already reached, you know, extreme levels in almost any way you can look at of valuations. So, you know, we're calling for, you know, another. Do you want to squeeze this other part of the of of the juice here? I think it's extremely risky to do that. But, you know, some people were doing it. The one other point that I want to point out here is that. Remember, January of two thousand one and July of two thousand and seven were both the last times that we saw interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Both of them are pretty much at the peak of the tack in the housing bubble. And we're seeing now again a hundred percent probability.

• 44:01Speaker 01

  And we're probably going to see interest rate cuts here coming up soon. You know, and that's, you know, that's all alarming. That's all alarming. That's just, you know, the Jay Powell just said it today. I mean, it's, we're, you know, it's obviously an acknowledgement that there's weakness in in the economy that is, you know, is probably going to see a a further problems happening. The other thing that I think it's in terms of more of a different alternatives of policies, and I don't know exactly. Or it could be, but it's the problem of inversions. Inversions are, yield curve inversions is a big problem. And I, you know, I suspect that there, there're gonna have to be some sort of policy to, you know,

• 44:45Speaker 01

  cutting rates is one of them, to, to reduce the amount of inversions that we see in the yield curve today. And, and that's, that's the scary part, you know, because when you look at the yield curve inversions, especially of those arguments of people that say, you know, yield curve inversions matter, but when inverted, take one or two years until something materializes itself, okay, well, go back in those two periods and see when the crisis really start to fall apart. It was actually when yield curve inversions are not, you know, increasing, they're starting to decrease. That's the time when, when the front end of curve starts to, to, to, to not move down as much as it was before. And that causes the yield curve inversion to steepen a little bit.

• 45:27Speaker 01

  The steepening of the yield curve is, is, you know, is, is another thing that tends to happen, depending on the case here in history, is, is the one thing that tends to, to lead to, to, to a crash. So, you know, I've, you know, I'm, I'm on the camp that I don't believe that there's, this time is different, that we're gonna, that the central banks will be able to prevent the business cycle from turning. And, and I, you know, obviously have history on my side in terms of that. But, you know, policies are getting more and more extreme as, as we, as, you know, since the eighties or so, just compare the eighties policies versus today. I mean, it's insane. You know, we're, we're taking to another level.

• 46:10Speaker 01

  And I don't suspect that we're gonna take it to a new level now. And why I think that, you know, precious metals are in a very interesting position here. It's a very beginning of a move, in my opinion, on gold and silver and things like that.

• 46:25Speaker 02

  Got it. And, and so, you know, part of this is, if there is things like interest rate cuts and the printing of money, one, you know, if you listen to like a Ray Dalio, for example, there's talk of modern monetary theory, right? And I think his is, whether you like it or not, it's inevitable we're gonna go there. Maybe just comment a little bit on how you see MMT interacting or intersecting with some sort of global macro event on the downside.

• 46:58Speaker 01

  I think Jim Grant did a great job explaining some similar type of campaign or whatever you call that. The theory that was heating up at the time, I think was in the late or early 40s or so.

• 47:14Speaker 01

  And the idea being that, you know, that kind of, that kind of theory tends to, to, to come in every, you know, during, you know, during, during the century. This is not the first time we're seeing things like that, that people start saying, we're never going to see inflation again. That, you know, that this is a, we're, we're going to be okay not having discipline and money, you know, money printing is not a problem and debt is not a problem at all. But, you know, I think that that's all, at some point, that's all gonna, in my opinion, is, is gonna be, have to translate into inflation. I believe that the technological moves are obviously very deflationary, positive deflationary for the rest of the world. But at some point, I think that that's going to have to translate into

• 47:59Speaker 01

  inflation, especially when you looked at just, you know, centuries of, of history of, of inflationary forces as they come and go. We haven't had one in a while. So at some, I'm not calling for inflation the next two to three years. I'm just saying, at some point, we're going to have to see it. That's, that's what history has shown us, that that's what, what happens. And so at some point, you know, guys like Gunlock are going to be right in terms of interest rates are going to start rising. And, and that would be the worst. That's what worries me the most, is the fact that, you know, is, is, if we have an inflationary crisis like 1974. So, those are brutal. There's almost no place to hide. You know, you're, you're smart enough that you're gonna go and, and buy some smart, safe haven

• 48:43Speaker 01

  assets. But some people are going to be buying bonds and, and, you know, and, and they're going to be in trouble. You know, bonds are not your, your safe asset if, if there is an environment, such an environment like this. So, right now, it's been working great. We also have some bonds in our portfolio. But we know that at some point, this thing is going to reverse. It's also a, some, some sort of a bubble driven by central banks. The only difference is that central banks are, you know, are likely to print more money and, and buy more bonds. And that's going to drive yields lower. That's the only difference of, of those times. But at some point, when we start seeing the eyes of inflation, they're not going to be able to do that again. They're not going to be able to drop rates anymore.

• 49:25Speaker 01

  And the whole thing, it's gonna be a, you know, it's it's gonna be a very different macro scenario. That's, you know, you're gonna have to, uh, you know, housing market, how's that gonna look like if we have interest rates or mortgage rates a lot higher than they are today? Um, you know, businesses and private equity, especially businesses have been relying on on very cheap source of capital today. And, you know, would Uber exist in the seventies? I don't know. It's a good question. Um, or would companies be able to be running with so-called zombie companies that don't make any money? Um, and be able to be, uh, surviving for a long time? I don't think they would survive the seventies. I'm not saying Uber itself, but several companies are out there today.

• 50:06Speaker 01

  So I think that the money, um, the monetary, uh, uh, theory is, is, is, um, is, is another one of those that starts to rise. You know, at this, this time of, of, of a cycle. Not necessarily calling the, the end of the cycle or anything like that, but it's, it's a pretty normal thing that happens throughout history of of people that have lost their minds in terms of, of what's the right policy. The one thing I wanna say that I thought was interesting, cause I come from a, a country that is, uh, a very, um, it's been very socialist for a long time. And I think it's interesting. It's nothing political at all. It's just an interesting topic. Uh, when you look at, for instance, what we're hearing about sort of a social dividend, uh, if you will,

• 50:49Speaker 01

  of, of some candidates now talking about giving away, let's say a thousand dollars to every, um, every citizen or a citizen at a certain level of, uh, on the tax bracket should receive a dividend from the government to, uh, to be able to spend money. You know, those sorts of policies in, in, you know, as we've seen throughout history, especially in emerging markets, they always translate into inflation in the short term. What do you think people are gonna do? What's, what do you think it's gonna happen if, if you give a thousand dollars on a monthly basis to everyone? Everyone's gonna spend money, sure, but that's gonna cause prices in general to rise. And, you know, if we do have, I think we're playing with fire, in my opinion, politically, uh, given where we are in, in the economic cycle.

• 51:34Speaker 01

  If we do have A situation like that, um, I think that we could see inflation rising. That could be a real problem. I think people have no idea. You know, that that goes to show how people completely forgot, um, you know, the, the, the, how the fears of inflation. Um, and they they lack that, you know, this, this whole, uh, uh, the millennials, I'm a millennial. Um, they, my generation doesn't know what inflation is unless you come from Brazil. I've seen inflation. I know how that works. I know my parents trying to grow a business and they can't, you know, you can't find credit because, you know, credit and, and, and just raising capital in general is too expensive.

• 52:12Speaker 01

  That's not the case in the U.S. Um, but you know, I, you know, I'm a believer that things come and go and, you know, and perhaps we're, uh, we could be getting close to something here.

• 52:23Speaker 02

  Got it. Let's, um, let, let's wrap up here, but before we go, uh, just your thoughts on, um, Bitcoin and gold, right? I think a lot of people, uh, previously and, and most likely inaccurately have assumed that it's a binary outcome. Uh, but maybe you actually agree with them. How do you see the relationship between the two assets, uh, today? And then maybe in the future, if a lot of what we've talked about today becomes reality.

• 52:49Speaker 01

  First of all, to start, when I talk about Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, I, I, I have to say that I'm not, uh, the most knowledgeable guy in terms of the technology of, of, of, of it. And, um, and I think that, uh, I, I love the fact, as I said, of, of both looking for an alternative of fiat currency. And I think that obviously gold, as somebody else have actually, uh, mentioned, is gold being the father of, of, of this idea. And I, I'm a big believer in that. I just don't believe that, uh, you know, this whole theory of, of, of drop gold and, and all that. It's, you know, it's, and, and revolting against, uh, precious metals in general. I don't think it's a smart idea. I think we have bigger, uh, fish to fry out there.

• 53:32Speaker 01

  But, um, um, in, in my view of, of, of Bitcoin, what I, um, I think that it's, it's quite interesting, the movement you see in special. I, I, I follow very closely how Bitcoin has kind of become this, this. This kind of a higher beta version of gold. It's moving higher, obviously smaller market cap. So it's kind of like, oh, if you're going to be long stocks. Well, if you're very bullish on stocks, you think that, you know, most times it's small cap stocks might outperform.

• 54:03Speaker 01

  The large cap stocks, the same idea here with Bitcoin and gold in terms of that. But I think that I appreciate a lot the growth, the gold history of its credibility. And, you know, it goes back centuries. And that's for me is, I think that, you know, I wish some of the crypto people would appreciate more. Because it's the same idea, really. Now, one thing that I think Bitcoin, especially Bitcoin, has done an incredible job at is to serve as a vehicle for

• 54:41Speaker 01

  for places like, you know, they have, you know, a very, very common in places like China or Venezuela and helping people to be able to to get their money out of those places and becoming a storage of value for those citizens that don't have an option to get their money out of those countries. I think that that's, you know, that serves a better purpose than gold, personally. And when I saw Bitcoin starting to move higher, I thought initially was, and I probably wrong on that. But I thought initially was something related to the problems in China really start, you know, brewing. But no, it seems to be a real move.

• 55:23Speaker 01

  It seems to be that cryptocurrencies have a fundamental reason to be rising. I personally don't hold Bitcoin and people might hate the fact that I said that. And that's just because I have a principle, which is, you know, unfortunately, if I don't fully understand something, I just don't, I just don't invest in it. But I'm, trust me, I am trying to understand it because if it is a real move like gold is, I think we're in the early stages of it. So, yeah, I think those are my initial thoughts, but, you know, I I think gold in general is attractive in any way you look at. One important way that you can see that is just looking at the relationship of gold versus things like,

• 56:06Speaker 01

  you know, like Russell 3000, like the broad, the broad index for stocks in general. Russell 3000 and like silver, the high beta version of gold, which is perhaps Bitcoin now, I don't know. But if you looked at that ratio, that just retested the 2000, the crazy insane valuations we saw in the tech bubble. And we're now kind of retesting those levels and starting to drop again. Now, there's so many ways you can look at commodities versus the S and P 500 ratio, commodities indexed by the Goldman Sachs index. And you can see there are close to a 50 year, you know, lows of that ratio, way below the median of that. So I think commodities are here for a run and obviously Bitcoin seems an interesting idea as well.

• 56:51Speaker 02

  I love it, man. Look, I think that you are incredibly reasonable and frankly can articulate the the advantages and disadvantages of, you know, not only the current economy and environment, but also these safe haven assets and what many would think are in some cases even speculative assets. But it is, it's always prudent, I think, to share the thoughts of like, look, if you don't understand it, don't invest in it, right? And then all the kind of the normal disclaimers around, folks shouldn't be putting in more money than they could lose or that they could afford to lose, etc. So I think that it is, it's this weird balance between what's going on and understanding what's going on is the first step.

• 57:35Speaker 02

  The second step is then what do you do about it, right? Especially if you're trying to protect your wealth or grow your wealth. So I think you've done a fantastic job of just helping us better wrap our heads around, you know, what is actually going on in that global macro environment and hopefully people find this incredibly valuable.

• 57:50Speaker 01

  Well, thank you very much. And I have to say, you also do a great job of spreading the word in terms of. Of the technology of the whole crypto community. I think in my view, you're my top follower of this whole idea. And I'm trying to educate myself. If you ever have anything to please send my way that helps me to understand it better. But I really appreciate your thoughts on the whole crypto markets as well. You're by far my top follower in terms of this whole market. I really liked following your thoughts. So thanks for that as well.

• 58:27Speaker 02

  I appreciate it. When I come out there, maybe I'll come meet up with you in person and give you a little bit of Bitcoin so that we can say, maybe you don't own a lot, but then you own just a little bit.

• 58:36Speaker 01

  I would love to. I would love to. That would be incredible if we can meet up and you pitch me Bitcoin. That would be awesome. I would love to see that. I would love that.

• 58:46Speaker 02

  No, Tavi, look, man, I really appreciate it. It's been incredibly valuable. I've learned a ton and really enjoyed this conversation. So thanks again for taking the time to do this.

• 58:54Speaker 01

  Thank you, Pomp. I appreciate having me and look forward to talking to you again.

• 58:58Speaker 02

  Sure. And then where can people find you on the internet? On Twitter, anywhere else?

• 59:03Speaker 01

  So I've become a lot more active on Twitter and I try to post, publish charts and ideas almost every day. If I have the time here, I'll publish charts on Twitter. My Twitter handle is @TaviCosta. And I also kind of started a YouTube channel, which is starting, not get traction, it's very low, but nothing compared to what you do. But if you just type Tavi Costa on YouTube, you'll find me. And Crescat is a hedge fund, so we have a pretty open website. We publish most of our ideas and letters there. Krescat.net is the website. And yeah, you can find a lot of ideas there as well.

• 59:46Speaker 02

  Awesome, man. Well, thank you again so much and we'll have to do it again in the future.

• 59:50Speaker 01

  Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

• 59:52Anthony Pompliano?

  Are you curious about cryptocurrency and you don't know where to begin? I've got a great way for you to try. You can use Stormplay, a free and fun way to start earning in exchange for your time. That's right, you don't necessarily have to make a financial investment to begin. You can simply download, register, and then discover these micro tasks that they present you that meet your interest, and then you're rewarded with these Stormbolts. The Bolts are then converted and can be withdrawn into your favorite cryptocurrency, including the Storm token, Ethereum, or my favorite Bitcoin. If you go and download the Stormplay app today, you can earn cryptocurrency rewards by playing new games and trying out cool new products. It's worth a try and it's a great way to get started. Remember, go check out Stormplay in the App Store today. Hey everyone, Pop here.

• 1:00:36Anthony Pompliano?

  If you liked this episode of Off the Chain and want to help us take crypto to the top of the Apple, Spotify, and other podcast charts, please do us a favor and rate, review, and subscribe. To review, simply go to the Off the Chain homepage, scroll down until you see the five blank stars. Taking 15 seconds to fill those stars in and leave a quick review goes a long way in helping us take the entire crypto ecosystem to the top of the charts. I appreciate you listening and see you next time on Off the Chain.