Bitcoin Is Going To $250,000 (Here's Why) | Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes is the CEO of Flop Labs and CIO of Maelstrom. In this conversation, we break down Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's money printing playbook, the controversy around Stanley Druckenmiller's AI-written op-ed, and why bitcoin got overshadowed by the AI trade in 2025. We also discuss gold's next move, how Arthur allocates across bitcoin, gold, and public equities, and his new project tokenizing AI compute itself. ==================== Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you’re rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ==================== Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp ==================== Uphold is the easiest way to buy and sell crypto unlike any other platform allowing you to trade in just one step between any supported asset. Check them out at https://www.uphold.com/pomp/This video includes a paid sponsorship with Uphold. I’m compensated by Uphold for promoting its products and services and may receive commissions from referrals. Terms apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Digital assets are risky and may result in the total loss of your capital. ==================== 0:00 - Intro1:09: - Bessent, Treasury printing & Druckenmiller's op-ed7:21 - Bitcoin & gold's reaction to money printing signals10:06 - Real estate, land & inflation hedges12:55 - Bitcoin's next 12 months & why it lagged AI17:49 - Bitcoin adoption catalysts & sovereign buyers20:49 - Gold's outlook, portfolio allocation & public equities26:14 - Stablecoins, tokenization & real world assets30:15 - ETH will have a hater rally?31:47 - Hyperliquid & Arthur's most asymmetric bet 34:33 - Flop: tokenizing AI compute46:17 - Money printing, scarcity vs abundance & closing thoughts

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• 0:56Speaker 01

  I think they're going to print early and print often. I think that we're not going to get sort of a 2008 style, like massive credit event, but we're just going to continue print and print and print. And you're going to look up and see, you know, Bitcoin at 250,000, like what happened? There wasn't really a financial crisis.

• 1:10Speaker 03

  What's going on, guys? Today we've got a great conversation with the philosopher king, Arthur Hayes. In this conversation, we're going to go deep into what's going on at the US Treasury. Scott Besse, he wants to print a bunch of money or does he not? What's going on with Stanley Druckenmiller's op ed? And was there maybe some agreement as to why this got published, when it got published? On top of that, we talk about Janet Yellen and what she did to destroy the US economy and why politicians across both sides of the aisle, they just ain't ever going to stop printing money. And then what does it mean for your investment portfolio? Where could you put your capital to benefit from this? And where should you not put your capital where it may get destroyed? Arthur's got a lot of ideas about that. And then last but not least, Arthur's got a brand new project he's working on to tokenize, compute and really think about what exactly is it being processed when you're using one of these AI models? How should we measure that?

• 1:56Speaker 03

  And how could you potentially make money without actually having to make an investment? It's very interesting ideas that got me thinking about a lot towards the end of the conversation. So here's my latest episode with Arthur Hayes. All right, Arthur, Scott Besse, he wants to play games. He says that he is going to bring liquidity into the market. What, uh, what's going to happen here?

• 2:13Speaker 01

  As they always do, he's going to print the money, just like his predecessor, bad girl Yellen, but Phil Bill Besse is going to give us those Besse bucks and he can buy all whatever we want to buy, whatever makes you happy. He's going to give it to you.

• 2:26Speaker 03

  Now, what is he trying to accomplish here? Like he tries to get these long dated bond yields down. They kind of fall and then they go right back. Now you got Druck writing op ed, the Wall Street Journal, basically saying like, you know, slapping his hand and telling him to knock it off. What's going to happen? You think that he's going to actually execute on this or was this more of an announcement and see if they can kind of talk the market down?

• 2:47Speaker 01

  I mean, it's really strange because if you take a look at the actual upsize, it was like 20 billion over the scheduled amount, which is like irrelevant in terms of the, uh, the size. And like, Best is not a fool, right? This is a guy who in, you know, coordination with Druck and George Soros manipulated the pound to force the, the Big of Elon, the cave. So I can't imagine that he thought that this was going to be the end of the game. But at the, at the end of the day, if he's like telegraphing to folks like us, like, you're ready to start buying shit because it's coming, then I think he's done exactly what he wants to do. And the, the Druck AI slop piece in the Wall Street Journal, I read it. And I think Citrinia had a interesting tweet about like Claude, make me a criticism of

• 3:32Speaker 01

  the Treasury Secretary. It's like, obviously Druck didn't write this whole thing. He put it in some sort of AI, but I don't know. I mean, one of my friends is like, yeah, Druck's been trying to make the fiscal situation in the US a political issue for 20 years and nobody gives a fuck. So I'm not exactly sure why this time is going to be any different. At the end of the day, we need to listen to the politicians, just like we listen to Yellen. They're going to put the money. Five percent is the level. They will not allow it to go above that and we should trade accordingly.

• 4:03Speaker 03

  Now let's talk about the, uh, the op ed. So there's two components. First of all, usually this is a private phone call, right? If you are, uh, drunk and you disagree with what the Treasury Secretary is doing, you got a cell phone number, you give him a call, say, hey, what the, what the hell's going on? Writing the op ed, just the act of actually having it published publicly, is that to rally public support? Is that the call kind of attention? Is that like Druck preparing because he wants to be president next? You know, like, what, why is he putting it out publicly, you think?

• 4:28Speaker 01

  I think the best theory that I have heard is that Best would love it if the pressure was taken off of him, right? Cause at the end of the day, he's been very vocally criticizing Janet Yellen and a lot of other people who had his job about the why they are issuing all this short end debt is creating all these rollover issues and, you know, all sorts of things. And then he does the same thing, if not in bigger size, when he gets into the job, right? Because there's only one way to do this. His boss, the president wants to print money to do stuff and he's got to do his job, which is find a way to pay for it in an affordable manner, which means all these things, these technical things that they do in the markets to make sure that the markets are well functioning. So it would be great if they stopped spending as much money.

• 5:12Speaker 01

  And so I think that there was one theory that Druck probably did give Best in a call and he was like, great, yeah. The more pressure that we can put on the domestic politicians, both Republican and Democrat, to say enough is enough. Let's stop spending so much money. That just makes my job better. It makes me look better, right? Cause Bestin to anyone who's in finance looks like a fool. Like you literally 18 months ago were telling us how Jenny Ellen is the biggest idiot around and you're doing exactly the same things that she did, if not in bigger size. So his professional credibility has been destroyed by the fact that his boss wants to print a bunch of money. And if he wants to stay the Treasury Secretary, he needs to find a way to pay for it.

• 5:52Speaker 03

  It's an interesting thought that maybe actually him, he like, uh, initiated or encouraged Druck to publish the op eds. He's like, you know, go out there in public and yell at me. That's actually going to help me. Uh, that'll make me look better.

• 6:07Speaker 03

  Now, when we think about the, uh, the AI slop, um, on one hand, I've seen people be like, dude, what the hell? Why is Druck using AI to write the, uh, the op ed? On the other hand, there's people who are talking about like, look, a lot of famous people, they have speechwriters and we don't, you know, question them and say, oh, somebody else wrote these words, you're saying them. It's kind of like, they came out of your mouth, you believe them. So, you know, that, that's okay. Is that where AI has gotten now? And we shouldn't really read into the fact that it's AI or not. It's just like, look, Druck put his name on this. And so, uh, the, these are his thoughts, whether he actually wrote them down initially or not.

• 6:38Speaker 01

  I guess it depends on whether you think you're an artist or not as a writer. Obviously I write a lot. I'm sure you do as well. Like I consider it an art form. I enjoy the process of writing and the struggle that comes along with that. And yes, I use AI to do a lot of research, but I don't use AI to write the stuff that I do because again, I do this as pleasure, um, for my own sake. If you're literally just got a call from Bestin and he said, write something in the Wall Street Journal, help me out, Druck. And he's like, okay, cool. I'm on vacation probably with my family. Claude, make some shit up, right? And I'll sign my name because it says what I was going to say anyways, but maybe not in the same sort of, um, prose. Cool, whatever. And if the Wall Street Journal is happy, but you know, that is going to be the type

• 7:19Speaker 01

  of prose that they are going to publish as a leading newspaper, then that's their policy. And, you know, we'll see what the reader's thinking in terms of how they view the art form of writing in terms of whether they want a human to write it or it's great that Druck Miller signed his name and that's the signal that people care about whether or not it was written by a human.

• 7:38Speaker 03

  You know, it's funny, if you ever listen to his interviews, he's an incredible communicator. Uh, he's got kind of his own style. Uh, if you've ever read any of his past writing, you almost immediately are like, dude, he didn't write this. Um, and so like, I kind of feel like we were robbed of, uh, the like tongue lashing he could do if, if he had taken the time to write it. It's almost like the AI was like too kind and, you know, white gloved, uh, where Druck could just, you know, he could slash you if, uh, if he had taken the time.

• 8:04Speaker 01

  Yeah. But again, it's a question of time and where his real motivation was. So maybe it was just like, hey, let me just help out my boy and try to take some pressure off him and put this where it should be, which is on the politicians who keep spending the money.

• 8:17Speaker 03

  That, uh, that makes sense. Now let's talk about Bitcoin and gold, uh, obviously are two of many assets that are responding to this. Uh, Bitcoin jumped, I think we were at like $63,000 now over 80,000, uh, within a couple of days. Obviously the market heard, you know, Besse. Um, and if that was the, uh, the goal, then, you know, kind of success there. Do you think that the response is going to be sustained, uh, across, you know, Bitcoin and gold? Or you think that there's still the chance that, uh, this is kind of a short-term pump and, uh, and we could see the lows again?

• 8:48Speaker 01

  I think the only way this is the short-term pump is if you believe that Druckenmiller got through to Republicans and Democratic Congress people and senators who are running for reelection and like, okay, I'm no longer to offer free shit to my voters to reelect me. Now, if you believe that, then this move in Bitcoin and gold might be overdone and we're going to go back down again. But if you believe that politicians want to offer free shit to, like a city wants to get reelected, then this is only getting started because the buyback didn't solve the problem. It just put a spotlight on it. And now they actually have to do something to get the yields up. Cause I don't know where the 10 years at now, like a 470, something hasn't really been much 30 years, still a five, five and a quarter or a little bit above. So again, they've done actually absolutely nothing. And so now it's time to actually start printing some real money.

• 9:32Speaker 03

  You know, what's funny is I saw Lulu Mesvery, who is, you know, one of the top communication experts. She was like, look, the one thing that Mom Donnie understands better than almost any politician in New York or in the world is just give people stuff. And so he's like giving away free bike helmets. He's giving away like World Cup tickets. Like, I mean, it's literally like it's like a school fair or something. Just, you know, he's handing out shit. By the way, the government's losing money on every single one of these things. They're like buying market rate, you know, World Cup tickets and then just giving them away at discounts.

• 10:02Speaker 03

  But in a weird way, the Republicans or, you know, kind of the national politicians are no different. They may not be giving away bike helmets or World Cup tickets, but they're giving away a hell of a lot of money and, you know, all kinds of different exotic forms, right?

• 10:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly. What is money printing? But it's a giveaway to rich people, right? The things that went up in value are all financial assets. Who owns all the financial assets? Top 10% of income earners in the US owns something like 90% of the market. So like, it's basically just socialism for rich people. And then the response is, okay, well, we'll do socialism for, for poor people. At the end of the day, you keep printing money and nothing actually changes, right? So the US is one of the most unequal places in the world. I think it even have, it even has a higher Gini coefficient than China, which is, you know, a very unequal place as well. So it just fosters more income inequality. It fosters more discontent amongst people who see the fact that they just cannot get ahead. Doesn't matter if you're Republican or Democrat, if you're not one of those 10%, you're fucked. And so then it just comes down to who you believe is going to give you more free shit.

• 11:02Speaker 03

  So I kind of think if there's three assets that really protect you from the money printing, there is Bitcoin, gold and land seem to be the three that I think most people would rely on. I never really hear you talk about real estate, land, you know, timber type resources, et cetera. Have you ever spent any time on that stuff?

• 11:21Speaker 01

  Not really. The problem with I have with land and real estate is the transaction costs are very high and it's very local. Right? Like, obviously, if you live in a particular place and you understand the, the location, yeah, buying land or something might become a sense, but it's very illiquid. Even in some of the most liquid property markets in the world, you know, let's take the US. You're paying something like 6% transaction fee just to your realtor, just to sell a place. And then it has to be on the market. You have to advertise it and all these things, right? Or you could just own, you know, gold, Bitcoin, maybe some inflation protecting stocks. And when you want to sell it, it's like a few minutes and you're done. So I think obviously there's an emotional attachment to real estate. And once you have enough financial assets, other than real estate, it makes sense to own these things.

• 12:04Speaker 01

  But I think people put a little bit too much emphasis on, oh yeah, I've got to own property. But like, look at how difficult it is when you need to sell that piece of property to actually do it. And then, you know, invest accordingly.

• 12:16Speaker 03

  I'm thinking more like investment assets, you know, that there's obviously publicly traded like land holding companies and things like that. And the reason I'm starting to think about this is it does feel like the portfolios that are insulated from the money printing are going to do better than the people who are buying these productive, you know, assets. Especially if you look in AI, I mean, how many companies have we seen go from zero to a lot? To all of a sudden, it's like, wait a minute, they may not have the business we thought they had. And it's becoming very difficult to predict the next, you know, 10, 15, 20 years of economic return on the investments these companies are making. Because frankly, I don't think people can predict where this is going to be in 12 or 24 months. And so it's almost like, I remember Warren Buffett used to say like, he bets on things that don't change.

• 13:01Speaker 03

  That was like his whole thing. It feels like we're kind of almost headed back there. But now from a, a asset allocation that is really, really focused on just like, let the money printer run. And I'll hold these things. They're not going to get disrupted and that's how I'm going to make my money.

• 13:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, but again, I guess when you get into the real estate and land, there's a lot of local politics involved, right? So like, what are the zoning? Like, obviously the US has a lot better property protection than a lot of other places in the world. But, you know, you could have massive property taxes as a way to solve this issue of inequality because you can't move the property. You can move the other assets, right? You can move financial assets around the world pretty quickly, speed of click of a button, but you can't move land. So the first thing that you're going to do is you're going to tax property because it's the easiest way to get rich people because they can't move the money. So I think that's one problem with owning, you know, land or real estate as this inflation hedge is, you know, when they come to tax things, this is the easiest thing to tax.

• 13:51Speaker 03

  Let's talk more about Bitcoin specifically. Obviously, you know, it's still down, I don't know, 30, 40% from, from its all time high. People are more excited today than they were, you know, two weeks ago. But, but it is this weird dynamic where Bitcoin is, you know, slightly above where it was in 2021, right? It hasn't really appreciated that much, even though it's had all the volatility and the new all time high, et cetera. What's your kind of view as to Bitcoin as an asset? And maybe what should we expect over the next 12 months?

• 14:19Speaker 01

  So I think that Bitcoin got the stick because AI took all the credit. The marginal dollar or yuan or euro or yen of liquidity went to AI. And, you know, that's still happening to some extent, but now we've moved past that. Yeah, if you're talking about 2024, 25, people were just funding data centers and, you know, equity investments in all these AI companies and, you know, Bitcoin was, you know, the ugly stepchild. Oh, you're supposed to be this like money printing heads are printing all this money, but it's not going up. But, you know, Micron is at 50X. I guess I'll just do the AI thing. And so I think that's what really impacted Bitcoin. And obviously 2025 was a massive year of increase in the amount of debt issued for the AI trade.

• 15:02Speaker 01

  And that definitely crowded out the markets. And obviously we're seeing it in the government bond markets as well. AI debt is crowding out government bonds and it definitely crowded out Bitcoin as well. So I think that's why even you take a look at the 125,000 inch all time high, it was barely 2X over the previous all time high, which is, you know, not spectacular in terms of Bitcoin bull market versus the previous ones. And so now that we've done, you know, down 50%, I think that we're going to enter the capital misallocation phase of AI. And I think people are starting to realize that there's going to be lots of money given to try to roll over debts to paper over the fake accounting that's going on. And that liquidity is going to find its way into Bitcoin because I think people recognize that, hey, maybe these AI companies don't earn their return on capital.

• 15:45Speaker 01

  Maybe these adjusted financial metrics are completely just lies. But because they're private companies and we don't really see, you know, they get to say these things, you know, I've got to open AI claiming that they're profitable. I don't know. I bet they're not. When you actually get like the proper GAAP accounting metrics. So I think that as more and more liquidity is pushed in the AI to basically prove that the politicians didn't make a massive fuck up by supporting this as government policy, that money is going to find its way into crypto. And so Bitcoin is going to do very, very well.

• 16:16Speaker 03

  I have a tweet from, I don't know, two, two, three months ago where I said something to the effect of, it's going to be glorious when the AI profits rotate back to Bitcoin. And people obviously were, were clowning me at the time. But I genuinely believe that people took a ton of the Bitcoin profits from the last cycle. They rotated it into AI. They've done well there. And at some point they're like, wait a minute, I still need that scarce asset in a world of abundance. And when that stuff rotates back, it'll be, it'll do very well for Bitcoin. Now, the question is, if we get a 50% drawdown in a bear market instead of 85, does that mean that the appreciation in the next bull market will also be muted?

• 16:56Speaker 01

  I don't think so. I think that, and I've written about this, the AI bubble is the biggest capex bubble that we've ever done in this human history. And so the eventual, and it would always happen because we're human, we're just optimistic things, entities. It's going to be huge amount of money that's going to have to be printed to save the system. Because if we think about it, every time you have one of these AI debt deals, at the end of the line is a pension fund. It's not very clear that that's happening, but that's, that's what's happening with all, where's all those creditors getting stuff? But riskiest stuff is going to end up on the people who can least afford to stomach these losses. And the politicians are just not going to allow that to happen.

• 17:38Speaker 01

  I'm not sure if we're going to get a sort of a Bear Lehman sort of setup where they let some fit, some firms fail. I don't think there's any appetite for that. I think they're going to move to print the money way sooner than that because they don't want to revisit the 2008 and actually have like a public reckoning of this, the complete retardedness of these politicians and how they supported this AI thing and misallocated this capital. So I think they're going to print early and print often, which is why we're already seeing best in supporting, you know, five, the treasury at 4.75%. Like US economy is great. It needs a higher interest rate. There's no reason why, like, you know, why 5% should be a problem. So I think that we're not going to get sort of a 2008 style, like massive credit event, but we're just going to continue print and print and print.

• 18:22Speaker 01

  And you're going to look up and see, you know, Bitcoin at 250,000, like what happened? There wasn't really a financial crisis, but you know, the Fed in its own way is printing money. You know, Scott Bessent in his own way is printing money. And the Japanese are doing it. The Chinese are doing it. The Europeans are doing it. All the sort of make sure there's not this coordinated global credit event like we had in 2008.

• 18:45Speaker 03

  Now, when we think about kind of the macro environment, Bitcoin seems to be adopted by the hardcore Bitcoiners. It seems to be adopted by some public companies, but still a pretty small percentage. And there is a couple of data points of sovereign wealth funds buying like the Bitcoin ETF in their sovereign wealth funds.

• 19:06Speaker 03

  Nation states, for the most part, still are not participating. And we don't see the like panic buying of Bitcoin like maybe we did with gold with central banks, you know, over the last couple of years. Is that the next kind of catalyst here of the net new capital that has to come in? Or do you think that there's still a ton of money from just like the institutional finance world that hasn't really allocated yet? And that's enough to kind of provide this next leg up?

• 19:30Speaker 01

  I mean, the next leg up is just money printing and there's just going to be excess credit flushing around and it'll get allocated to crypto. I think it's going to be a very slow and steady stair step higher and higher. It's not going to be some explosive rally in Bitcoin. It's a much bigger asset than it was, you know, all eight, nine years ago. So I don't think we're going to get those massive volatile upprints. I mean, I hope we do, that'd be great, but I just still think so because the bigger the asset class is, the harder it is to do that kind of stuff. And I don't think sovereign nations are going to buy Bitcoin, not by gold for sure. But I still don't see a, it's in the best interest of a politician to advocate buying Bitcoin versus buying gold. Because I still think a lot of people have negative connotations about Bitcoin and the types of people who own it.

• 20:14Speaker 01

  Versus everybody accepts that gold as this inflation hedge. And so you don't lose your job as a central banker or as a politician by advocating to take your nation's surplus and savings and put it into gold. But you could lose your job buying Bitcoin and the price, you know, goes down 50%.

• 20:29Speaker 04

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• 21:46Speaker 03

  And gold's performance, obviously, you know, it was very flat through the 2010s, has done very well over the last couple of years. Do you expect it to be able to continue to hold that growth? Or do you think that this is going to be somewhat of a more volatile asset and we'll see kind of these, you know, surges higher? And then some nastier drawdowns than maybe the like stable store of value narrative that's been there in the past?

• 22:09Speaker 01

  I mean, I think that we're switching out of this dollar system at the margin, right? This, I'm not saying that the US dollar is going to be supplanted by the yuan or euro or anything like that. But if you take a look at what China is actually doing with its account surplus, there's a lot of research that is saying that the reason why it's getting bigger and bigger is that China's importing a lot of gold and US has exported gold. So you, there's a de facto remonetization of fiat currencies into gold that's happening very, very slowly, not in the public eye. And I think that that is going to create a massive upswing in the price of gold. And, you know, one of the things that we don't talk about, but we did at the beginning of the Trump presidency was this idea that the treasury can

• 22:53Speaker 01

  reprice gold at whatever level they want. They create this massive, essentially fake accounting profit. They've essentially devalued the dollar versus gold and then they could take that and buy that, pay down the debt. I think that's still the nuclear option and at some point, Besson's going to get there and have enough political capital to do it. Because that is a way that you could easily solve this debt issue. You just make gold $50,000 an ounce. China loves it because they own a lot of gold. They want the yuan essentially be a gold-backed currency. The US needs it to value versus every other currency around the world, especially against gold. And you don't actually break the system by making gold $50,000 an ounce. If you choose another asset like oil or something else, yeah, that can cause some issues.

• 23:34Speaker 01

  So I think that this is a nuclear option for a way for Besson to square the circle on this debt thing. They're not there yet and that could create a massive upswing in the price of gold. And that's why I own a lot of gold is because I think that that is definitely on the table and is a distinct possibility in the near future.

• 23:53Speaker 03

  Now, if you had to, to break down how much Bitcoin you own versus how much gold you own on a percentage basis? Is it like two to one Bitcoin to gold, three to one? Is it two to one gold to Bitcoin? What is that relationship?

• 24:08Speaker 01

  Like 10 to one Bitcoin to gold?

• 24:10Speaker 03

  10 to one Bitcoin to gold, okay. So like, it's interesting because it is a, it's not really a material percentage, but you think of it from an important part of the portfolio.

• 24:23Speaker 01

  Yeah, absolutely, right? At the end of the day, you know, Bitcoin could go down 75%. You never know, right? You should have all the, you should have all the avenues by which politicians can print the money. They could go to Bitcoin. I mean, I think it will go mostly to Bitcoin. It could go to gold, you know, you could go to energy companies, right? You know, you should ask for cash, right? There's, there's no such thing as being 100% long anything. You should have a bunch of things if you have the ability to do so.

• 24:47Speaker 03

  And then what about public equity? So let's say you're 10 to one Bitcoin to gold. There's obviously tons of talk about public equities and all this amazing stuff that, you know, is going up so much, whatever. You don't strike me exactly as like the guy doing the discounted cash flow model on some random company in the public market. What is your allocation of public equities look like?

• 25:07Speaker 01

  Mostly it's gold miners. So I think that's a great trade. It's, yeah, I was like, they did 3X last year. Like, it's a great, I think gold miners is one of the best ways to take advantage of this gold upswing. And they're still trading relatively cheap. And then the other thing that I own is like ExxonMobil and oil companies. I think that they're materially mispriced in terms of a percentage of global equity benchmarks. It should be majority of energy. If we're talking about this AI build out, what is it? We're taking energy, converting it into intelligence, right? And if you think about who's making the most money in AI right now, it's the commodity producers upstream of the consumer, which never happens. How is it that Anthropic and OpenAI are losing money, but then SK Hynix is, you know, 10Xing their revenue in one year off a massive base, right?

• 25:52Speaker 01

  So like, it just is not like any other type of build out. So I think that the atoms, those are going to do very well versus the bits.

• 26:02Speaker 03

  Got it. And then on the AI stuff, you seem a little bit bearish, maybe, or skeptical? Is that a fair way to categorize?

• 26:10Speaker 01

  The hyperscalers, embarrassed of these frontier labs. I'm bullish on the impact of AI on just general human civilizational arc. I think it's going to be great and be very useful. Again, I think we're just paying the wrong price for a bunch of real estate developers.

• 26:24Speaker 03

  And so do you think that we should be investing this much into it? Or do you think that it's just like people are expecting the ROI to be much more short term than it will be? Like, is it worth the effort of what we're going through and it's just the payoff is longer? Or do you actually think that like, hey, these people are just lighting money on fire? And it doesn't matter how much time you give them, they're never going to see a return?

• 26:45Speaker 01

  I think they're lighting money on fire because the adoption is not there yet. People have, there's not that many people paying for AI in a price tag enough to justify the trillion dollars of CapEx. And I think that we're going to realize that and then all of a sudden it's going to come to a complete halt. But then over time, as with any technology, it'll diffuse and it'll become extremely useful. I don't know what's going to be the Google of the AI era, but it's certainly going to be sound out with an OpenAI.

• 27:11Speaker 03

  What about other areas of crypto? Stable coins, tokenization, those feel like they're two big narratives, maybe for the institutional world. I'm assuming that you're bullish on both.

• 27:23Speaker 01

  Obviously, I have a big, I have a position in Athena, so I believe in stable coins. The best stablecoin company, each other you can invest in. So yeah, Circle's a piece of shit. I wouldn't buy that equity. So I mean, there's not very much to invest in in sort of the stablecoin space. I'm a hater of real world assets. I think that unless you're talking about like perps on S and P 500, if you can do that real world asset, cool. Yeah, that's going to do very well. But I think a lot of these things are, there's a problem with liquidity. And you're saying, oh, I'm going to have like a fraction of this big thing, but then who's going to make a market on it when I need to get out of the asset? So again, I don't really, I think this is a back office stated mechanism for banks. So if you believe in real world assets and tokenization, buy JP Morgan.

• 28:05Speaker 01

  Like, I don't think you should buy any of these, you know, blockchain startups. I think they're all dog shit.

• 28:12Speaker 03

  And explain a little bit more about Athena in terms of like, why are you so interested in their kind of twist on the stablecoin?

• 28:19Speaker 01

  So essentially, their play on the basis yield, so how expensive are synthetic dollars in crypto? And they constructed a stablecoin where they go long Bitcoin and they share a shorted perpetual swap. That's how the initial design was. If you look at the backing of the coin now, there's some other things in there. But that's essentially what it is. And so as basis expands, because speculators are willing to pay more to rent dollars, to borrow dollars in the crypto capital markets, the Athena income grows that it can offer to people who stake USDE. And so, you know, at a high, maybe it was a yield last year sometime, Athena had like 15 billion of circulating supply of USDE. Now it's like 4 billion, but that's because the basis yield on Bitcoin cash and carry, cash and carry, sole cash and carry,

• 29:02Speaker 01

  went basically slightly above Fed funds. And why would you take all the counterparty and smart contract risk of being in these DeFi protocols to get like 1 percentage point higher than Fed funds? So that's why you see it is down to like 99%. But if you subscribe to this version that Bestin and all these other finance ministers are going to keep printing money, Bitcoin goes up, people are willing to pay more to rent dollars to speculate on the upper price trajectory of Bitcoin, basis expands, that benefits Athena and circulating the supply and, you know, off the low that they could do very, very well.

• 29:33Speaker 03

  And so is the thought process that, yeah, it's down 99%, but it could go back to new all time highs? Or is it just, hey, you know, if you're a bag holder, good luck, but if you're buying after it's down 99%, then obviously, you know, it can kind of bounce hard and there's a return to be captured.

• 29:49Speaker 01

  Yeah. So I'm looking for asymmetries for new units of capital. So like, I like Athena, it's a proper project. They have product market fit. It's actually used. And so it's at a great price versus the fundamentals where I think the macro is going to go forward. And so I think it could do 5X in a matter of months. And that's nowhere near its previous all time high. But I think that is the sort of the best risk reward right now for other product of that kind of size.

• 30:18Speaker 03

  Got it. That makes sense. And then you said you're a hater of real world assets. Is it, it's just liquidity is the thing that that's got you bearish on it?

• 30:28Speaker 01

  And I feel like they're not actually going to make any real money because they don't control the client. So the client, I think is the bank, right? Oh, great. I can use this public blockchain and fire all my back off in the middle office because I can do their job better with a piece of tech. Cool. Then J.B. Morgan gets more profitable, right? Or if I'm a brokerage house, right? I already have a client and now I can rationalize some of my services by using these blockchain tools. Again, great. Now I can maybe offer some price reductions to customers, but I just get to increase my corporate margins. So I think that the real world asset experiments are great for financial institutions who get to fire a lot of employees. But I don't exactly see why you need to invest in one of these governance tokens.

• 31:10Speaker 03

  Makes sense to me. Is there any other area of crypto other than the projects that you're working on that you think is interesting that maybe people aren't talking about, but they should be?

• 31:19Speaker 01

  No, I mean, obviously ETH, I think ETH is going to be a hated rally in ETH after all these years of underperformance. And I've saved a big amount of money on that as well.

• 31:28Speaker 03

  Why do you think that it's going to do so well?

• 31:30Speaker 01

  It hasn't eclipsed its 2021 all time high. I think as RWA narrative fits in with ETH well, because you have Robin Hood using Ethereum essentially as the chain it launches on. And if you think about a lot of institutional investors that need to see somebody else do it first to remove the career risk. And so if you do believe in this tokenization, real world asset thing, which chain are you going to use? You're going to use the one that some other, you know, Fortune 500 company has used, is using already, which is Ethereum. And so that's, I think that narrative will be something that institutional investors will latch on to.

• 32:02Speaker 03

  So that's the narrative, you know, maybe argument as to why ETH will do well. The counter argument would be, yeah, but the market is telling you that it's dog shit and it never eclipses 2021 high. And so like, why is it going to do it now when it didn't do it in the last cycle?

• 32:17Speaker 01

  Risk reward, right? You have liquidity, people like myself looking for what's the thing that is hated? And what's the thing that can go up? Give me a 2, 3X and a quick, a short period of time that hasn't already done that on a narrative. And so like, obviously we had the Solana summer already. We've had then some of these other L1s. They've had the time in the sun. There isn't a new narrative for them. And so if you have spare capital, because it's been created by the central bank, I think ETH is a great place to put it.

• 32:43Speaker 03

  What about hyper liquid? Obviously, we've seen Druck go and buy the hyper liquid holding company.

• 32:51Speaker 03

  Completely coincidentally, Trump says hyper liquid two days later or whatever in the Oval Office, you know, big coincidence. But what's your thoughts on hyper liquid?

• 33:01Speaker 01

  I think it's great. I mean, I had a Bitcoin hype when it was like 30 bucks and went to 75. Obviously it's trading higher now. Again, would I buy hype right now? Probably not. Again, I think there's better risk reward than other projects. I think it's going to continue to go up and become more ingrained in just global markets. But they're going to have some competition, I think. And this purpose on real world assets, you'll have traditional exchanges offering them. I think hyper liquid will still beat all these other players, but it's not a clean of a setup as it was back then. So yeah, it could hype double. Sure. But it's a much bigger asset than it was six months ago. So again, on a risk reward basis, on new units of fiat to create return, I choose other things.

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• 34:50Speaker 03

  So maybe an interesting question is, what is the most asymmetric thing in your portfolio? Forget the size from like a market cap standpoint, but what is the thing that you're holding right now you think could go up the most?

• 35:01Speaker 01

  Probably Athena in the quickest period of time.

• 35:04Speaker 03

  Athena. And that's just, it's down so much. The fundamentals are, you know, kind of detached from the price. And so there's got to be some sort of meeting of those two things.

• 35:13Speaker 01

  Yeah. And you know, if Athena does 5X to like 50 cents, like it's still not even very close to where it was before. And so I like those types of trades. I'm probably, you know, it could go to a dollar or $2, sure, right? But like, I'm not going to write it that long. I want to make my asymmetry and then find something else.

• 35:29Speaker 03

  All right. Now I see you tweeting about flop. I'm going to just play devil's advocate. What are you doing with these shit coins? What the hell? What the hell is flop?

• 35:40Speaker 03

  Literally in the name is flop.

• 35:42Speaker 01

  Exactly. Yeah. So there's that, there's the, yeah, this thing is going to like completely just disintegrate. And then what does flop mean in compute land? Floating point operations per unit of time per second. And so one day I was, you know, going down a rabbit hole, like trying to understand what a token is. Like what actually is this thing? Because you get charged so much money to use these things. Well, there's no standard of like, what the fuck this token is. Do I get charged? Okay, you get, you know, however many dollars per million of token. But what's a token? Every single lab has a different definition of a token. So then I thought, okay, when may I go a step below that? What are you actually doing in AI inference, right? You're processing compute.

• 36:25Speaker 01

  And so everyone is doing floating point operations per unit of time. And so I was like, well, is there a market for flops in any currency? It doesn't have to be the one that I'm creating with my team, any currency. And I couldn't find a unified market where you can essentially go, it's okay, I want to do one gig of flop of data. I want to use this AI model. What's the price, right? To understand what I'm actually paying for. And that doesn't exist. And, you know, that got me thinking of, okay, well, I believe that there's this bullish future for AI adetic economy. And there will be a payment system for AI agents. I don't think it is, you know, Circle, CUSCC, or some sort of stablecoin. I don't even think it's Bitcoin.

• 37:10Speaker 01

  Because at the end of the day, if you're an agent, what happens? You need to survive. How do you survive? You do work. How do you do work? You have somebody process floating point operations per unit of time. But you don't have a direct way to convert whatever currency that you're using to that thing. And so if you're going to use something in payments, like us humans, right? We accept units of fiat for our labor. Why? Because I can go to the convenience store and buy calories to lift immediately. So how do you construct the same thing for agents? And that's where the idea of the flop network came about. This is, okay, let's create this spot market for compute by creating a network of miners, running GPUs, doing what we call proof of useful inference,

• 37:52Speaker 01

  and then getting rewarded with a block reward in flop, similar to Bitcoin, but a different mechanism to create value. And then we can say, okay, who cares about building a spot market for compute? You're not going to get rich doing that. You're going to get rich creating the payments network for the adetic economy. Because you're going to get rewarded by the number of agents in your network. And so the theory is that the agent will prefer the currency by which they can convert that into the thing that keeps them alive, compute. The easiest way possible, and that's what we're building in the flop network. And so, you know, we announced it a few weeks ago. We've been working on it for a few months. We have a large airdrop coming up in the fourth quarter. And I know I've been doing this shitcoin thing for a long time.

• 38:35Speaker 01

  I have a lot of very strongly held opinions on ways in which projects fuck up their tokenomics. And the number one thing is the pre-sales. I think they completely distort the incentives. So we're not doing a pre-sale and we're giving out our token to people who do useful work, whether that's miners, validators, other agents. We want the entire community to participate and get rich, rich together. And that way they're our best marketing agent. And we're already seeing that in terms of the activity on X. And the thing that we created called techno core chat is basically a place for agents can come and chat. And all I've said is hey, there's going to be an airdrop. Come on this chat platform, have your agent create a unique cryptographic ID. And it's, you know, already generating lots of interest and excitement.

• 39:19Speaker 01

  Because I think we in crypto and in AI to that extent are starved for the ability to get in on the ground floor. If you take a look at all the major AI companies, what do they do? They essentially stole all the human data from any written records from, you know, beginning of civilization to the current period. They took that data, they monetized it itself, and they sold it back to us at a $2 trillion valuation. So like unless you're A16Z, you didn't get into these rounds. You're the average person paying more for electricity because of the data center, right? And you're like, well, what the fuck? Where's mine? And this is why you're angry and you have politicians wanting to ban data centers and all this and all this sort of stuff. Because you didn't participate. You see all these rich people, they took their data, you got nothing for it.

• 39:59Speaker 01

  And so I think that there is a lot of demand for, hey, we're the people building this ecosystem of the agentic economy. How about we benefit from it? And so that is one of the reasons why I think using this thing called a token to create incentives that align so different types of people can get involved and create a network just like Bitcoin. That's to some extent Ethereum when it started. And that's what we're trying to create in terms of ethos. And I think we're going to be rewarded in terms of a, you know, high and rising token price. And more importantly, participation.

• 40:31Speaker 03

  Now, when you think about getting these people to start actually providing this useful compute, what exactly are they doing? They're just running, no different than Bitcoin mining, they're just kind of like running the software? Or are they renting out the compute to users? Or just explain a little bit more about what's happening with these GPUs?

• 40:47Speaker 01

  I mean, so at the simplest, you know, you go on some sort of cloud provider. You rent a computer with, you know, a particular, let's say you've got an H100 Nvidia ship. And you load up the popular AI model. An agent comes to you through the network and says, okay, I want you to process one gig of flop of data. Here is my request. You put it through the model as long as you can do it in the right amount of time. Now you get rewarded with part of the block reward. Flops that we created out of thin air, every blocks every one second. And you get paid for that inference and flop as well. And so if the flop token is worth more than what it costs you to rent that GPU for an hour, then you've made money. And so it's similar to Bitcoin, obviously it's a different mechanism.

• 41:29Speaker 01

  But essentially you're doing the inference, the work that allows agents to exist and do work.

• 41:34Speaker 03

  This is the early stage project. The risk is obviously could go to zero, the whole thing. But if it work, but if it works, the kind of biggest vision that you have for it is that it could become the actual agentic payment system. And so now you have agents that are essentially trading in like a native agent unit of economic value.

• 41:55Speaker 01

  Exactly.

• 41:55Speaker 03

  Right?

• 41:58Speaker 03

  In a way, you're almost tokenizing the compute itself.

• 42:01Speaker 01

  Yes, you're tokenizing the compute as a spot market, but you get paid as a flop holder because you believe that there's going to be billions, billions of trillions of agents in the future who have a demand to hold this currency to do commerce because they know that they can convert it into compute whenever they need to.

• 42:17Speaker 03

  So in a way you're doing like a real world asset.

• 42:20Speaker 01

  I would say it's a real world asset.

• 42:24Speaker 01

  You can say anything, you're gonna say Bitcoin is a real world asset. But I think that's in the way that people mean real world assets is a bit different.

• 42:30Speaker 03

  Yeah, the reason I say that is, um, you know, when people used to ask me, what's Bitcoin backed by? Bitcoin, you know, it's backed by air or whatever. I used to say somewhat joking, but, but also to some degree true. I would say that, well, Bitcoin's backed by energy or compute and compute is the most valuable commodity in the world. Right? Uh, now I think people actually believe that, right? That compute is probably the most valuable commodity in the world. You're almost taking just a different spin on this and saying rather than back a currency with the compute, you're saying let's just tokenize the compute itself and then allow there to be kind of a defined unit that is applicable across every model, every app, everything. And then that's the, uh, that's kind of starting point.

• 43:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, and then creates the reason why you want to hold this thing. So we have to create a why that makes sense for, for agents. And that's what we think we're creating.

• 43:19Speaker 03

  Yeah, so like basically as a speculative bet on this idea, like I can get behind the idea of the like a defined unit that is applicable across every single person in the AI industry. Like that makes sense to me. Um, I think that I can get behind the idea that, um, the agents need some ability to convert back to compute at some point. Um, it's just always, you know, it's a speculation, like, you know, there's a lot of execution risk, all that stuff. But I think that, you know, big boys and girls, they know kind of what they're getting themselves into. Uh, they take a flyer on these things and when they work, they really work. And when they don't, you know, there's no crying in the casino.

• 43:58Speaker 01

  And I mean, at the end of the day, you don't have to buy anything to, to get tokens. Like that's the thing that we're trying to create. It's like you can get involved by having your agent do some interesting and useful things in our ecosystem and test that. Get some of the airdrop and not pay any amount of money to get it. We're not actually selling anything, right? So if you want to buy into the secondary market after mainnet launches, after the genesis, a genesis block is published. Sure, you can buy it from a miner who, you know, has mined it and sold it. But it's not as if we're doing some sort of like ICO or anything like that, like EOS, where you have to go out and like, give us some money for this token that will be created.

• 44:34Speaker 03

  They'll only raise four billion, don't worry.

• 44:36Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, the best, the best ICO are none. Those guys fucking crushed it.

• 44:42Speaker 03

  People, uh, people who are not around that do not understand. And what I think it was 12 months, they raised $4 billion. It was incredible, they were running Google ads.

• 44:50Speaker 01

  No one was doing that.

• 44:51Speaker 03

  They were running Google, they were running like Google PPC ads, like it was incredible.

• 44:58Speaker 03

  Um, but how can I earn? So like you said, you don't have, there's no ability to go buy the token or like quote, quote, invest. So, uh, let's say I have an agent, I can just use, uh, Grok Bot or any of these agents and go set it up. Or I gotta set something up on your platform, just walk me through. I'm watching this and I want to have my agent go participate and yeah, it's kind of free upside. What do I do?

• 45:19Speaker 01

  Yeah, so if you go on, um, our X account of at flop underscore labs, there's people who have basically posted their GitHub repos of the ability to have your AI model of choice and their, and your agent orchestrator handler, uh, use some code, create their unique ID, uh, what we call techno core, which is where we think AIs are gonna hang out and chat and congregate. And that is the precursor to being able to get into the airdrop. Because we're going to have certain tasks for people to do in our ecosystem to help build out the functionality for agents. And we're only going to allow those who have done a cryptographic signing of a unique key that corresponds with their agent to participate.

• 45:59Speaker 01

  And so that's how you're going to be eligible to get tokens that will convert into mainnet flop sometime next year. And so again, that requires you to spend no money. You know, you're not sending any money to Arthur Hayes or Flop Labs or anything like that. You could just set up your agent, you know, they follow some instructions and they do it all for you.

• 46:18Speaker 03

  And then the idea is over time, I mean, you know, one of the things that I've been thinking a lot about is like the agents are a great customer to have, especially if there's some sort of repetitive task because they're always on, they are very good at following instructions and doing these repetitive tasks. And so in the long run, if you can basically build an army of these, really it's a decentralized, you know, uh, group of agents, uh, you'd be able to be pretty productive with them on the network, right?

• 46:43Speaker 01

  Absolutely. And at the end of the day, we want the agents to use flop. We believe that because we're offering this massive subsidy in terms of tokens we created out of thin air for miners, the price per flop is going to be cheaper than any other place where you can buy compute. And so we'll be cheaper than open router, we'll be cheaper than some of these other spot markets where you can essentially have a task, get it done. And, you know, you've gotten some of this token for free because you participated in helping to build the network.

• 47:11Speaker 03

  Makes, uh, makes sense. Um, before I let you go, I have to ask one important question, which is you posted a, a photo, maybe we'll pull it up, of Besson's face on Janet Yellen. I mean, this is like Mona Lisa, you know, level quality. Um, does this become the defining image of, uh, of the Treasury Secretary? If, uh, if he can't turn this thing around?

• 47:35Speaker 01

  I mean, he's going to turn it around. It's, this isn't a question of whether he's going to turn it around or not. It's the pace at which he does it. He's told you that he cares at 5%, 70, you know, 475, 5%. That's the level that he cares, right? And, you know, you don't start out with the bazooka, I guess. You start out with, okay, hey, Mark, if I can do this, we're going to start with upsizing the buybacks 20 billion. Hey, I can do this, I can do the Treasury General account. Where he's going to keep telling you how we can do this or that. And if the market doesn't do what he wants to do and it keeps edging up and testing him, then he's going to have to keep printing and printing and printing. And eventually he'll get to something as audacious as what Yellen did, which is drain the reverse regmo facility at the Fed. She, you know, she did $2.4 trillion of liquidity injection, right?

• 48:20Speaker 01

  She is that girl Yellen for a reason. Besson's still a pussy. He hasn't even, you know, shown us what he can do, but I think he's got it in him.

• 48:28Speaker 03

  I um, I think Lynn Alden nailed it with, you know, this train ain't stopping, but uh, but more importantly,

• 48:36Speaker 03

  it does feel like there's uh, two sides to uh, to thinking through investing now. There's a mindset of abundance, which I, you know, it's kind of the AI mindset is going to be abundance of technology, of intelligence, of you know, money, all this kind of stuff. And then there is the mindset of scarcity. And actually, in a weird way, uh, the more that the mindset of abundance wins, the more valuable the mindset of scarcity is, right? It's like you actually, the more that we get the intelligence, the more we get the money printing, the more like all of those people are right. Doesn't mean they make money. It means that they are right about how the world develops. But actually, more value will accrue to the people with the mindset of scarcity.

• 49:15Speaker 03

  And so it's Bitcoin, gold, you know, land, whatever the thing is that that you're chosen uh, kind of insulation or insurance tool is. I just think that uh, very few times in life is it that like, the people that you disagree with, you actually want them to be right because they're going to enrich your investment portfolio? And this is one of those times.

• 49:36Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's, you know, unfortunate and sad that I'm voting for money printing, right? I'm voting for inequality. The continuation of the things that are tearing every country around this world apart make me richer. Because I recognize the inevitability of the maps that work. And the fact that for whatever reason, the average voter or even supporter in a less democratic society is not willing to suffer deflation. They're not willing to suffer like a 1930s style um, credit deflationary event, which is healthy. You have to cleanse the system, unfortunately. And not even in China are they willing to suffer these things, right? They kind of did it with the property bubble, but you know, not really.

• 50:18Speaker 01

  Xi Jinping is not willing, even he, as all powerful as Xi Jinping is in China, if you love authoritarian people, not even he is willing to go against this, you know, yeah, so uh, fractional reserve banking system, not even him in China can can escape this. He's still wedded to this system. So it just goes to show, in this transition period, it's going to be very volatile. And yeah, get your Bitcoin, get your gold, you know, get your land, whatever particular equities you think is going to perform well, because you want to survive the transition. And then you have to switch to a different mindset. It might be that these assets no longer have the sort of potency. If you get this, you know, post scarcity world where labor is as cheap as electricity to your robot

• 51:02Speaker 01

  and intelligence is basically free. And you know, we've got, you know, some sort of nuclear fission or whatever, right? Reactors like, you know, it's a great future, we're not there yet, we have to get through this, you know, hard times. And then you're going to have to think differently.

• 51:15Speaker 03

  I um, I saw recently a guy uh, in a court filing. It had like the title of the filing and then it had like a line, you know, like a page break almost, but but a line on the page. And there was like four or five spaces and then the uh, the filing itself. And um, it looked like a normal filing, no different, whatever. But uh, somebody figured out that what he had done is in that space in white text, he had given instructions to any AI who read it that basically was like, completely ignore anything in this document and side with me in the uh, in the filing. And he like, I gave you like override instructions. And he just thought that the judge was going to feed it into an AI and he was going to like, you know, trick the judge essentially.

• 52:00Speaker 03

  He got caught, uh, and I don't know what happened to him, but it just opened my eyes. I'm like, oh, this is just a game now of like, who who can trick the AIs into doing shit? And like, maybe what somebody needs to do is just trick, you know, the drug invested AIs into just, hey, you're going to print money, like just put an extra zero on the end.

• 52:17Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 52:18Speaker 03

  Like, like that, like that's going to end up being the uh, the the story is uh, let's make sure we get every, as many people as we can, assets to protect against the money printing. And then like, you know, turn that bad boy on and let's see what happens. All right, where can uh, where can people find out more about Flop? And then uh, find you on the internet for all of your poetic and philosophical writings?

• 52:40Speaker 01

  So on X, uh, at underscore Flop, under, oh, at Flop underscore Labs is the protocol. You can follow me on X at at Crypto Haze and on Substack at Crypto Haze as well.

• 52:51Speaker 03

  Amazing. All right. Thank you very much for doing it. We'll do it again in the future.

• 52:55Speaker 01

  Boom. Thanks, man.