US & Iran AGREE To Ceasefire | PBD #773

Patrick Bet-David, Tom Ellsworth, Brandon Aceto, and Cullen Roche break down the U. S.–Iran ceasefire and Israel’s response, escalating tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and global oil supply, Trump’s $1.5 trillion military budget proposal, rising tax boycotts, JP Morgan employees leaving NYC, ICE vs AI public sentiment, Lowe’s $250M investment in blue-collar workforce training, and the growing pressure on underperforming workers. ------ 📚 CULLEN ROCHE'S YOUR PERFECT PORTFOLIO: https://bit.ly/4smzcKq Ⓜ️ CONNECT ON MINNECT: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kSVkso⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4kSVkso Ⓜ️ PBD PODCAST CIRCLES: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP 👔 BET-DAVID CONSULTING: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4lzQph2⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 🥃 BOARDROOM CIGAR LOUNGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj 🇰 KALSHI: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://kalshi.com/pbd⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ http://kalshi.com/pbd⁠ 💬 TEXT US: Text “PODCAST” to 310-340-1132 to get the latest updates in real-time! ABOUT US:Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:14Speaker 00

  My handshake is better than anything I ever signed, right here. You are a one of one? My son's right, brother. I don't think I've ever said this before.

• 0:27Patrick Bet-David?

  You know how sometimes you go to sleep and you wake up in the morning, you're like, man, there's not really any major stories, you know, what are we going to talk about today on the podcast? Well, last night wasn't the case because the addendum alone is bigger than the stories that we have here. It's stacked, lots happen, two week ceasefire, CNN says they agreed to the 10 point, no we didn't, Trump's talking about suing them, that was a mess, a lot of criticism on the way the president came out and said it's going to be the end of this civilization. We have to react to that. I saw a guy from MSNBC say, never in the history of America has a president ever threatened the end of a civilization. Hitler never said this, Mussolini

• 1:10Patrick Bet-David?

  never said this, you know, all these other presidents never said this, you know, obviously Twitter wasn't around. Imagine if Twitter wasn't around with Hitler and Mussolini and Stalin and some of these guys would be tweeting, it would be a very different world. We won't know it, we just have to use our imagination. So we have to react to that. Was it irresponsible? Was it too much? Was it disrespectful? Do you talk to people like that? Is that the way to talk to people? Where is the madness behind that, right? And who won with this negotiation? Did America win in this negotiation? A lot of people saying Iran wins, now they get to, if they qualify the $2 million, that could add a, you know, anywhere between 50 to 100 billion dollars of additional revenue a year to Iran so that Iran come out the winner?

• 1:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Is Israel going to sit on the sidelines and not do anything about it? They said the ceasefire has nothing to do with Lebanon. I think Netanyahu said it then on the outside. I think it's Oman that's coming in and talking about, hey, we'd like to help you with X, Y, Z. A toll booth? The toll booth and they're being opportunistic about it, but there's a lot of things to talk about. We'll address that here today. Jamie Dimon came out and made some thoughts about New York City and M'Nani. And M'Nani came out and said, the problem with New York City is racism and, and you know, jobs are not being given to colored people. It's more towards, you know, whites and all of that, which I'll let him say it because he knows better on how to tweet racist messages than I do. So I'll let him explain himself properly. And then oil prices, we have the numbers this morning. Oil prices went from, what was the high?

• 2:37Patrick Bet-David?

  115, 116 to 94 today. Rob, if you want to pull it up to see exactly where it's at. It's an 18 or 20% drop off. Tom gave me the numbers. Tom gave me a chart. There's no way that's the number. No, no, that's not the number. No, no, no, no, no. No, that's not, that's futures, Rob. No, that's not the number. Go to actual oil price.

• 2:56Tom Ellsworth?

  WTC, it's WTI.

• 2:59Patrick Bet-David?

  World Trade Center oil price.

• 3:02Patrick Bet-David?

  So negative, listen, for anybody that criticizes Rob, Rob's Farsi has gotten better. He's Assyrian's gotten better. His ability to type out Middle Eastern names is the best it's ever been. I'm so proud of Rob. So Rob, don't let anybody take shots at you. You're doing great. Rob can spell Middle Eastern names better than a name like Mark Johnson. That's what's happened to him. He's still good right now.

• 3:26Tom Ellsworth?

  And Mark, if you're listening, we miss you.

• 3:28Patrick Bet-David?

  I got, I got a chart right here. This chart right here, which is very interesting chart Rob just gave me.

• 3:32Speaker 03

  It is 70.

• 3:34Patrick Bet-David?

  There's no way it's 70.

• 3:35Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 3:35Patrick Bet-David?

  No, it's 92. No, it's 92. It's not 70. No, no. You're visiting the same website. It's like guys who go to whitehouse.com and they miss one word and they go to a porn site. You have to be very, very careful when you're doing stuff like this. And, uh, uh, uh, so we have a special friend with us here as well. Colin Roach, who has done great work with finance economics and he got strong opinions. Right before we start, I said, I'm already going to like this guy with the way he was talking. I can't wait to start chatting it up. So it's great to have you here as well with us. Be here, Pat. Uh, we're going to put the links to his book. His recent book just came out, The Perfect Portfolio. We'll put the link below, but Tom showed me this, okay?

• 4:15Patrick Bet-David?

  The negative perception around AI is now worse than ICE. Okay, and let me tell you who they have on this list. Okay, who they have on this list? They have the Pope, they have Colbert, Rubio, they have sanctuary cities, J.D. Vance, Republican Party, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Democratic Party in Iran. And you have to see where AI is. And by the way, the reason why that is, is the second chart, as electricity prices keep rising, they increasingly blame AI. This is a very important topic because this kind of goes with the story that Mark Cuban talks about. Mark Cuban put a story out there about CEOs and AI and do they really know what's going on with AI? We'll address that story as well.

• 4:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Lowe's, I really like what Lowe's did. They made this announcement, $250 million they're investing into, um, $250 million investing into plumbers, electricians. What a great story on what these guys are doing. Their CEO is a stud, by the way. Their CEO is an absolute stud of a guy for doing stuff like this. This is great when you hear stories like that. And then we got a few other ones, you know, more Americans are, you know, saying they're not going to be paying taxes this year, which by the way, that's not us. I'm just telling you, that's a story that's coming out that people are saying, why the hell am I paying taxes? Market watch, Americans are increasingly saying they won't pay their taxes this year as a political protest. Here's what could happen to them.

• 5:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, that's market watch trying to say, pay it, or you may go to jail. I got guys on my neck that my neck me telling me, have me on the podcast, have me on the podcast, I'm going to show your people why they shouldn't be paying their taxes. And I'm like, well, listen, you know, all the best to you. Maybe we'll follow up in the future, see where this goes because there's a market that people believe you shouldn't pay taxes. And then we got a few other things that we'll get into. One story that came out, we have to address is no mediocre worker is safe. The bar for keeping your job just went up. Okay, and this is a story that came out from Business Insider and I like that story and we're going to get into that story. And Rob, if you can pull This last story that I would am I getting into is there's a major feud going on with conservatives

• 6:25Patrick Bet-David?

  at the White House getting government employees to go from working four days to five days. Because right now, the whole work from home is still happening with thousands of government employees. And it's not even in here, Rob. I just read it on my own. I just want you to look for it and we'll get to it probably at the end if we get some time to do that. So with that being said, these are the stories that we got for us to get into. I'll be making some big announcements on Friday, so hang tight on what will happen on Friday. Major news that's coming here soon with with Minak, with a lot of different things, as well as with March. Just stay tuned. We'll be making that announcement to you guys come this Friday. Having said that, I think the first story, Rob, to get into is the ceasefire. So, last night, two days ago, matter of fact, let's go with the two-day sequencing. First,

• 7:10Patrick Bet-David?

  the president tweets on Easter the following thing. Rob, go to the Easter one, because the Easter one is what pissed off a lot of different people. So this is Easter's tweet that the president puts up. He gets out there and says Tuesday will be power plan day, bridge day, all wrapped up in one. In Iran, there will be nothing like it. Open the F-ing straight, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise to Allah. At least he's giving credit to their, you know, praise be to Allah. Donald J. Trump. Tucker Carlson reacts to this with a video that went viral. Everybody reacted to it. What is this all about? Tucker's right. Tucker's not right. Why would he say such a thing like this? Here's Tucker. Go for it, bro.

• 7:50Speaker 04

  You think you are? You're tweeting out the F-word on Easter morning? You'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah. So obviously, you're mocking the religion of Iran.

• 8:11Speaker 04

  Okay, if you seek a religious war, that's a good idea. But by the way, no decent person mocks other people's religions. You may have a problem with the theology, presumably you do if it's not your religion, and you can explain what that is. But to mock other people's faith is to mock the idea of faith itself, and we should never mock that, because at its core is the acknowledgement that we are not in charge of the universe. We did not build it, we won't be here at the end of it, we can destroy life, we cannot create it because we are not God. The message of all faith.

• 8:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so you can posit that, and obviously, you know, the folks on X went to town, Tucker's right, Tucker's wrong, then they played a great sits in the past of Tucker criticizing Islam and saying, hey, what happened to you? Did you switch? Did you not? So the president, you know, here's the message coming from the market, and you would think the next day the president would get a little bit more softer, and then this is what he says the following day with his tweets, and everyone's like, Pat, how come you don't react to this? This is not how a president speaks. Rob, if you want to pull up the wild one, "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have complete and total regime change, where different, smarter and

• 9:33Patrick Bet-David?

  less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionally wonderful can happen, who knows? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world. Forty-seven years of extortion, corruption, and death will finally end. God bless the great people of Iran." So then, that phrase got people reacting, saying, who in the history of mankind has ever said, "A whole civilization will end tonight"? Which civilization? And people started speculating, is it Iran? Is it this? Who's he talking about? Anyway, so that happens.

• 10:13Patrick Bet-David?

  And then it leads to the ceasefire, which the call happened yesterday based on a conversation with Prime Minister Shabazz Raffi and Federal Marshal Aseem Munir of Pakistan and where they decrested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran, agreeing to the completed media and safe opening of the straight homeless, I agreed to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be double sided ceasefire. The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all military objectives and we are are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long term peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran and believe it is a workable basis on which

• 10:56Patrick Bet-David?

  to negotiate almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between US and Iran, but a two week period will allow the agreement to be finalized and consummated on behalf of the United States of America as President also represent the countries in the Middle East. It is an honor to have this long term problem close to resolution and then of course, thank you for your attention to this matter. While this happens, minutes after this tweet happens, there is attacks, Iran attacks, I believe bombs Israel, Israel attacks them. Jesse Waters retweeted a clip saying minutes after this was tweeted and everybody reacted. Is the ceasefire going to happen? Is it not going to happen? I have my own strong thoughts on this. Uh, uh, uh, is this it Rob that was shown? Yes, sir. Go for it. This is minutes after the president tweets that. Go ahead.

• 11:39Speaker 05

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• 12:13Speaker 06

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• 12:55Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, Jesse, as anticipated, the sirens are now wailing over Tel Aviv, indicating that another missile is inbound. And it looks like those bright lights in the sky are the missiles. And it looks like you can see an interceptor that is in hot pursuit of the missiles. And it's always quite dramatic when you see those interceptors going after it. And these ones might disappear behind our building here. We're going to lose sight of them. But they're still quite lethal and coming into Tel Aviv. And I didn't see an interception in this case. Should be able to hear it in a second or so.

• 13:35Patrick Bet-David?

  You can pause it right here. Okay, so that's that. That's happening. So people are, they didn't keep the ceasefire, all this other stuff. I'll pause here because we got a lot of other things that we'll get into with this here. Tom, your thoughts from the comments, first comments, his second comments, Tucker's comments, and then obviously the ceasefire today. And Colin, I'm gonna come to you next.

• 13:53Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, I think basically what happened over Easter weekend is President Kaiser Sose, I mean, Trump, really played a Kaiser Sose moment. And he's been negotiating this. He's had Whitkoff negotiating this. Vance was in Budapest talking to Viktor Orban, which I think is very interesting because I think that's like a, like a center point there between Putin, Ukraine and this on both sides of it. And Orban can also talk to the, you know, the Iranians. So what do I think happened? I think that perhaps Iran blinked. All of a sudden, we heard that they made a comment in a positive direction on nukes. After he's saying, I don't want to do this, but I'm gonna do this.

• 14:38Tom Ellsworth?

  And the Kaiser associate principal says you have to, the other side has to think that you're 1% crazier than they are, so that they become nervous. And there's a lot of commentary that went around when Reagan was elected, that there were people inside the Iranian government at that time, and it was an early government. It hadn't been around for 50 years. It was the now volatile government. But they actually thought Reagan was bonkers. They thought he was insane and willing to use, you know, nukes and things. And that got the hostage crisis moving. So I think what happened is, he went in with a hard negotiating position. I think Iran blinked a little bit and said, okay, okay, let's, let's discuss this.

• 15:23Tom Ellsworth?

  And I think there were other people working on it. I think China was working on it, because now we know China is in a crude oil deficit right now. They're in a shortage right now, and they're feeling true economic pinch. So I think then he comes out with this, and finishing it up, showing that he can say, he can say, F you on one hand, but then at the other side, he's saying, God bless the people of Iran. He wants them to see that as well, Pat. He wants the citizens to see that last line.

• 15:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Paul, I'm worried with this.

• 15:54Speaker 06

  Yeah, I agree. I mean, it kind of reminds me of the tariff playbook, because he did a similar sort of negotiating tactic back last April, where he makes these very extreme, almost like, seemingly very irrational positions. He goes really far to one side, probably doesn't really mean that, and it forces the other side to come to the middle a little bit. And this seems to be part of the Trump negotiating playbook, you know? So he's doing the same thing here. Is it the most diplomatic way to do all of this? I don't know, probably not.

• 16:25Speaker 04

  But at the same time, I mean, this is probably, I mean, considering we're, we're only about six weeks in. This is starting to look like about as good of an outcome as we could probably expect. I mean, two days ago, it seemed like, you know, maybe something really bad was gonna happen, that this was gonna escalate, that we were gonna have boots on the ground. And so now you're getting into a position where it looks like this is really coming to a close. Everybody, I think, wanted an off-ramp for this thing, and here we are. So I think that, you know, that he did the same thing with the, if you remember the tariffs, he said, six weeks. I'll make a six-week deal with you, I'll make a six-week deal with you, I'll make a six-week deal with you. And he did that for months and months and months.

• 17:08Speaker 04

  And it was slowly an off-ramp for everybody getting off of the tariffs there. And the same thing's sort of happening here, where, you know, he says two weeks. I think, you know, frankly, I think this thing really, the, the market's probably bottomed a week ago. Oil probably peaked a week ago, um, so I think we were starting to find a bottom in a lot of this stuff. And that's gonna play out. I mean, Trump is a master of building a wall of worry for the market. And so, you know, all of this stuff is a persistent worry, but really, markets look ahead of that. The economy looks ahead of that.

• 17:37Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, it's true. And Rob, if you want to pull up the MarketWatch numbers. Crude oil is down $20, okay, from $112 to $92, down 18%. Dow Jones futures up 2.7, S&P futures up 2.67, Nasdaq futures up 3.5. Gold is up 3%, up to $4,800. Silver's up 7.73%, and then you have, uh, Bitcoin is up to $71,000. And, you know, some of the stuff that's happening, but Brandon, do you have a opposing opinion on, okay, I wanna hear that, go for it.

• 18:11Speaker 03

  I sure do. So, um, listen, I'm supporting Trump. I, I hope, like, everything he does is the best thing for the country, um, you know. I support him this whole time and everything, but I think he stumbled upon the fact here that, uh, we've put ourselves in a terrible position of not being equipped to deal with a situation like this. You know, Ukraine went through, I believe, 10 years of weapons that were built in the first five weeks of the Ukraine war. So, we've been seeing- In the headlines for the last four years, there's huge shortages of these defense missiles we've been using. And I don't think we have the capacity to keep this up for much longer. You know, the oil is the one thing, but yeah, sure, we're the best military in the world. We have the most advanced technology, but we've had our manufacturing hollowed out over the last several decades. So that's the most unsettling thing to me.

• 18:55Speaker 03

  I think that's what we need to be putting our effort in behind the scenes is to ramp that back up. Because we're not in a position to carry this out if we wanted to. So yes, I agree that the Kaiser Soze thing, where I don't think Trump's crazier and unhinged to Iraq. I think he was acting that way to try to scare them into something that was palatable. But I don't think this is an optimal outcome at all. I think we're in a worse situation than we were before he started this thing. Because now Iran has realized, okay, we could flip this switch of shutting down the straight four moves, which they didn't even blockade it. They just have the mere threat of a drone hitting a ship that's going through. So it's not like they're moving ships out of the way. When you say they're clearing the street, they're just promising not to drone strike any boats that go through. So I don't even know if boats are going to have the courage to go through it, even though they're saying, yeah, there's a ceasefire, yeah, we're not going to do anything to you.

• 19:36Patrick Bet-David?

  So who wins from this? Because for me, you know, Trump's negotiation, when people are like, I can't believe he said this. I can't believe he said, stop being surprised with what he says. I mean, he made that, you should have already been baptized to that in 2015, when he started campaigning on this stuff. They're rapists, they're sending their wars, they're this. He's been doing a shock job, you know, to get people to react to it for a long time. So I do think you have to act crazier. I do think you have to act like you have nothing to lose. I do think you have to kind of come from that strength position. And especially when you're dealing with people from Iran. That part I agree with. But who, I just send a poll to Rob, and I want to see what our audience is going to say. Our audience is fairly reasonable. Who do you think won in this ceasefire? Iran, US, or too early to tell?

• 20:21Speaker 03

  Iran's in a better position than they were before because they have more leverage over the US and the rest of the world now.

• 20:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you agree, Tom?

• 20:26Tom Ellsworth?

  No.

• 20:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Tell me why.

• 20:28Tom Ellsworth?

  Now, I think Iran agreeing to a ceasefire.

• 20:33Tom Ellsworth?

  I don't know you see how you say they win.

• 20:36Tom Ellsworth?

  Because basically, we're about to escalate from military targets. And we hit another military target on Karg Island two days ago. So they know what's coming. And they know what's next. And you're talking about power plants. You're talking about that. You're talking about the pumping station on Karg Island. It's, they're one step from that. And so, do they win technically? Yeah, they win not being more fully destroyed. But I don't think they win anything in a ceasefire. Because we're not saying, I've had enough, let's have a ceasefire. We're saying to them, have you had enough? Do you want a ceasefire? Have you had enough?

• 21:15Speaker 03

  Yeah, that's one way to look at it. But think about it like this. How frequently do we disagree with Iran in terms of they want something? We want something different. Pretty frequently, right? So they've now realized that they could simply put out the threat of, hey, anything that goes through the Strafeharmus, we're going to knock it out. We're going to hit it with a drone and shut down global traffic there. Like, they didn't have that before. And we wanted them to stop doing that and couldn't make them stop by brute force. You know, that's an objective fact. I don't think we were able to do that. You know, I think we would have done that if we were able to do it.

• 21:46Patrick Bet-David?

  So, so you're saying, okay, so let me give some stats here. 92% of Iran's largest vessels destroyed. That's 140 plus. Iran's missile drone attack rate down 90% from week one. The death rate for Iran is at, I don't know, 10,000 killed and nearly 1,000 civilians. You know, 6, 7,000 military personnel. That's for the first 34 days. We're at what days right now? We're at

• 22:10Speaker 03

  39, I believe.

• 22:10Patrick Bet-David?

  39 days, okay? So 4 million people have displaced. 3.2 million in Iran, 1.2 million in Lebanon. So when you look at that, and then the argument, Tom, is made by some people saying, I do think this is, you just gave Iran a two-week timeout. And that two-week timeout is for them to go out there and figure out other ways on what to do with Russia and China. Because this negotiation was involved in who? Pakistan is the one that brokered it. They said China made a phone call to get Iran to kind of be like, hey, listen, this is a good thing for you to do. So China was involved in helping with this. But what do you think Iran's going to be doing next two weeks? I think China's the winner, actually. It's funny you mention them, because

• 22:49Speaker 06

  I mean, you look at everybody in the room here, China all of a sudden looks like the adult in the room, and I think their negotiating position in terms of everything involving Taiwan, I mean, it's, that's the, my big worry. I typically, I look at big geopolitical risks like this, the tariffs last year, even this thing I said, this, this can't last, this won't last more than a few weeks. It's just, politically it can't. You can't go into the midterms with $4 gasoline and 6.5% mortgage rates. It's just, it's impossible. It's a narrative killer. And so, but the geopolitical risk that is extremely worrisome in the long run is China going into Taiwan, because it disrupts so many things, that has the potential to turn into such a big flare up. China's position, I think, across the board, has

• 23:34Speaker 06

  strengthened sequentially across time as we get closer and closer to that potential inevitability.

• 23:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, and by the way, while this is happening, Israel's like, look, Netanyahu says he backs Trump ceasefire with Iran, but he says the deal excludes Lebanon. Why would he say that, Tom?

• 23:49Tom Ellsworth?

  Because he's working on creating a buffer zone in Lebanon similar to what they created in Gaza. I mean, let's just objectively look at the attacks, let's look at where it is, and that's what's going on. And what did he have in the hills of Lebanon, up there on the northern border? He had problems. He had a combination of independent and Hezbollah had, had, um, uh, strike areas up there. You can check, check me on that. But I think what he's looking at is saying, listen, you know, Iran was funding and arming Hezbollah. They were here in my backyard on the northern border. I'm gonna go take care of this as part of taking care of Iran. Now, you don't have to agree or disagree with Israel, Pat,

• 24:31Tom Ellsworth?

  but that's what they said. And so they're saying, I'm not done with these guys over here Hezbollah. I regard them as my problem across from my border. They're in Lebanon, tough, I'm, I'm gonna finish this. And I think that's what Israel is saying. Whether you agree or disagree, they are creating a buffer.

• 24:50Speaker 03

  You know what's kind of annoying?

• 24:51Tom Ellsworth?

  What's that?

• 24:51Speaker 03

  I mean, wasn't this something that they, they cared deeply about, that what was happening with Iran? Israel.

• 24:58Patrick Bet-David?

  You talking about Israel?

• 24:59Speaker 03

  Yeah, and something they were kind of invested in terms of like

• 25:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Sure.

• 25:01Speaker 03

  care about the outcome.

• 25:02Patrick Bet-David?

  You think, you think Israel is happy about the ceasefire?

• 25:04Speaker 03

  I don't, but I, I'm not happy about the fact that they had any attention at all on a whole different country, different conflict, when we were doing something that was helpful for them. Like, shouldn't they be allocating their resources to do everything they could to help us? I know they were taking out some leaders with precision airstrikes and everything, but, I mean, you shouldn't be sending out your resources to something completely different and unrelated if, you know, you have this big thing that you're supposedly invested in.

• 25:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom, what do you think?

• 25:27Tom Ellsworth?

  So, what do I think? I think that, that, two things about Israel on this. I thought they should have been participating, and I thought they were selective about, oh, I'm gonna do this, but I'm not gonna do that. I'm not gonna put boots in the ground over here, but I'm gonna do this over here. Wait a minute. You were lobbying for this. You had intelligence. You had your own Mossad. This is not a dispute, what I'm about to say. You had multiple Mossad mini-camps and infiltrators all through the arid regions of Iran that were snooping out where you had, you know, training facilities, small drone airstrips, all these things, and you had buckets of this intelligence. And you're out there, and you've openly said, I want this, this Iran to be put down because they

• 26:12Tom Ellsworth?

  were funding Hezbollah and Hamas that were causing problems for me right here. Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with their intelligence reports, they were already there. So why don't you step up and be part of the solution that is actually benefiting you? And I, I thought they, they should have. I think it's kind of selective, in my opinion, to say, well, I'm not gonna do this, but I'm gonna do this. I'm not gonna do that, but I am gonna do that. Oh, you ceasefire over there, thanks for your help. Wait a minute. Israel complicated the first two weeks of the war when they killed more people than they had told us that they were aiming at. That's a fact. And even Trump said, well, there was a couple guys we kind of liked.

• 26:54Patrick Bet-David?

  They keep killing them.

• 26:55Tom Ellsworth?

  And they keep killing them. Who's they?

• 26:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 26:58Tom Ellsworth?

  Trump was saying that. He said, well, there was one guy we thought we liked. Like, even he wasn't sure, but he said, but they killed him.

• 27:04Patrick Bet-David?

  Mm-hmm, yeah.

• 27:05Tom Ellsworth?

  So, come on.

• 27:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, so, you can't, you can't, uh...

• 27:07Tom Ellsworth?

  Sorry to rant, Pat.

• 27:08Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no, I'm with you, but you, you think, in a situation like this, Israel's sitting around saying, I'm glad the ceasefire happened?

• 27:14Tom Ellsworth?

  No.

• 27:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Or you think they're sitting around saying, you know, let's finish this because we could have just emboldened Iran to give a timeout for them to go back and re-strategize? No, they'd like to see a lot of these.

• 27:25Tom Ellsworth?

  neighbors gone.

• 27:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Israel.

• 27:27Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, I think they would have liked to, I mean, I frankly, I think they've kind of been jerking us around. I mean, I think they they roped us into this whole thing and they would have loved to see this go on for a much longer time period than it has here. So I don't know, I I look at it and I'm I keep coming back to, you know, why are we fighting their fight? In a lot of ways here, I mean, they're big boys, they've got big guns, they've got big missiles too. So I don't know why they needed us to to come in and start fighting their fight because they're perfectly capable of fighting.

• 27:59Patrick Bet-David?

  How many military bases do we have around the Gulf? How many military bases do we have around the Gulf, Rob? What's the number?

• 28:06Tom Ellsworth?

  At least a few dozen, probably.

• 28:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, that's the that's the the the problem is. The number used to be we had 780 military bases around the world, okay? I don't know what the numbers around uh Gulf. I want to know exactly how many military bases does the US have in the Gulf? And the only reason I'm I'm saying this, I'm looking at this because to answer your question. For US to be involved. If you you wonder if Israel attacks Iran and the war is one on one, what is Iran gonna do?

• 28:37Tom Ellsworth?

  When?

• 28:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, not not Iran's gonna win. What would he? How would Iran retaliate if it's one V one?

• 28:45Patrick Bet-David?

  If it's a one V one war, okay, it says eight to 10 major US military bases in the Gulf region. Is what we have two in Qatar, one in Bahrain. Rob, go a little bit lower to see how many in Kuwait, three in Kuwait, one in UAE, one in Saudi. So you you wonder like because what is what is Iran done so far with the war? You attack them, what do they attack? Gulf states. And then you want to, they want the Gulf states to call and say, hey, man. Now we're being impacted by, can you guys stop? So they they're like, hey. You're hitting me, those are your best friends. I'm hitting them because they're weaker than you and I'm saying, hey, hit those guys. And then they're calling him and they're saying, hey, Tom. This is getting a little bit out of control, man. I just got hit by this. I just got, what? How long you think you're gonna do this, Tom? How long you gonna go about this?

• 29:30Patrick Bet-David?

  So they know he's not gonna listen to me.

• 29:32Tom Ellsworth?

  They were putting pressure on MBS. They were all calling MBS.

• 29:35Patrick Bet-David?

  You understand what I'm saying? Yeah, so so to me, I think this is a part where Iran figured out what buttons to press to get the call back. And. Yeah, look, here's the reality with the president. Vinny showed me something very important this morning. He says, look, and you know, we've been kind of talking about this, but he says if Trump brokers a peace deal, Trump's a taco.

• 30:00Speaker 03

  Hmm hmm.

• 30:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay? If he brokes a peace deal, what a sissy. Cannot believe this Iran won. If he drops a bomb on him, he's a what? War criminal. If he, you know, didn't get involved, he's weak. So the reality of it is, anybody who is critical of Trump, those that, no matter what he does, you know, he's never going to be getting the victory, period. You know, but he knows in this situation, you know, what, what his outcome is and what he wants to do. Nobody really knows how this is going to go. I will tell you, if it goes ceasefire, and right now, the 10 points that they're talking about, who knows if these 10 points are right or not? I'm just saying, these are the 10 points that are spreading. Number one is no further US attacks on Iran.

• 30:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Number two, Iran keeps control of Strait of Hormuz, which by the way, that is a lot of power to give, lots of power.

• 30:48Speaker 03

  And that's why I'm saying they win.

• 30:49Patrick Bet-David?

  I know. That's a lot of power to Strait of Hormuz. Recognition Iran's nuclear enrichment rights. Lift all sanctions. End UN and IAEA resolutions against Iran. Realize frozen Iranian, release frozen Iranian assets. US withdrawal forces from the region. Compensation for Iran's war damages. Formal non-aggression guarantees. Binding UN Security Council agreement. People are saying this is not true. But this is what's spreading. So what I'm reading to you is what a lot of people are saying, that this is what's on the line.

• 31:19Speaker 03

  Right.

• 31:20Patrick Bet-David?

  You know, but we're going to see what's going to be negotiated. If it comes out and they get anywhere close to this, Iran won.

• 31:26Speaker 03

  Yeah, 100%.

• 31:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Iran won in a big way. And then guess what happens? You think they're going to sit on the sidelines and not do anything the next two, three decades?

• 31:34Speaker 03

  No.

• 31:34Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't think so. I think they just got bolder. I think they just got tougher. I think they just got stronger and, um...

• 31:40Speaker 05

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• 32:10Speaker 06

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• 32:39Speaker 04

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• 32:55Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. They're gonna come out and... Timing, just, you know, especially if this kind of income is not gonna be coming in every year. What types of weapons you think they're gonna have in their arsenal? Oh, yeah. What type of investments you think they're gonna be making? What do you think they're gonna go back to doing? You think they're just gonna sit and not do anything about it? You know how they said the money that was sent to Iran, that, hey, he was gonna build bridges, he was gonna do this to Iran? All those monies went to what? Weapons. They were waiting, some of it went to them, some of it went to... So, I don't know. I think it's too early to tell. I'm not a fan of the ceasefire. Right now, I'm not. I just think ceasefires are not gonna be kept by anybody. I think the other... We claimed we agreed to a ceasefire, and what did we do? We attacked. You know, Iran claimed, and then boom. Same thing happened with Ukraine and Russia. Remember how many times they said, oh, we agreed to a ceasefire,

• 33:38Patrick Bet-David?

  instantly, hours later, there was an attack? So, I don't know how much... Historically, ceasefires have never worked. Historically.

• 33:45Speaker 03

  Can I recommend an idea to the president?

• 33:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, of course, go for it.

• 33:47Speaker 03

  So, you know, one of the most controversial things of all time, I think, would work perfectly here. The Iran-Contra affair, where we built an arms manufacturing base secretly in a place close to Nicaragua to send arms to the rebels to help them overtake the communist regime. So, need to build an arms manufacturing facility in something like Saudi Arabia, somewhere close by, and just get as many guns as possible into Iran, into the hands of citizens there. Because it's not gonna be... Like, you know, when you say, what does, like, finishing the thing look like? How do you finish them? You can take out as many leaders as you want, but there's still 25% of the population that's supporting... It's the IR CG. So there's always gonna be somebody that pops up and will take the leadership. So it needs to be a civil war type of situation. Right now, the population that's against the regime isn't equipped for a civil war. So if we could equip them for a civil war, it's not something that happens overnight.

• 34:31Patrick Bet-David?

  How you do it though? Go ahead and do it.

• 34:32Speaker 03

  Put a put an arms manufacturing facility as close as possible to Iran and smuggle it in. It's a long-term thing, not something that's gonna happen overnight. But aside from that, yeah, the two options are either let them win or just nuke the country. So because you can kill as many leaders as you want, but there's still millions of people there.

• 34:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me ask you a question. Let me ask you a question.

• 34:48Speaker 03

  Mm hmm.

• 34:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Day one of the war versus today, do you think the world is looking at Iran and see they're saying how weak they are? Or do you think they're looking at Iran and saying, okay, they're more capable and strategic than we thought we are? What would they are? What do you think the world is saying?

• 35:04Speaker 03

  They have more power than we thought and part of that is that.

• 35:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you think?

• 35:07Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, I think that they're wow, they're more resilient than I thought. It took that's taken a long time to take it to this level and they're still kind of standing. This is surprising. I think that's what they're saying. And by the way, Iran already has an arms manufacturing factory. It's called China. And if you don't think that in the net, by the way.

• 35:26Speaker 03

  For itself though, for the government.

• 35:27Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, you you asked me.

• 35:29Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 35:29Tom Ellsworth?

  Who I thought won the ceasefire. That's different from whether I think it's gonna work. I don't think it's gonna work and number one and number two, I think we've just given them a training. So now they're gonna figure out different techniques to use and they're gonna figure out ways to do it. And if this is really impacting China's economy, then guess what? China is the arms manufacturing factory that's gonna help Iran.

• 35:53Speaker 03

  But that's the helping the government. I'm talking about smuggling weapons to the citizens there. Like we need a rebel group to form that's against the government. Like that's not for the IR CG. So that's what I'm saying with that. But um.

• 36:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, no, but going back to it. So if you're if you're talking about doing that, what I'm trying to say is the following. If like the war with Ukraine and Russia, when they when they started attacking, what was the first thing everybody thought?

• 36:17Speaker 03

  Putin or Russia's gonna win.

• 36:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Russia's gonna what?

• 36:19Tom Ellsworth?

  They're just gonna walk in and take all that country back. Humpty Dumpty USSR is getting rebuilt.

• 36:24Patrick Bet-David?

  What happened?

• 36:25Tom Ellsworth?

  It became a quagmire.

• 36:27Patrick Bet-David?

  But why though? This is different. These are two different stories, but similar. The reason why it's different is who had Ukraine's back?

• 36:32Tom Ellsworth?

  All of Europe and the US democratic regime.

• 36:36Patrick Bet-David?

  So Russia was by themselves. Of course, they got a couple of other people that are helping them out, but they realized, wait a minute. That's not enough and Ukraine is destroying you with the smaller the Ukraine, the little drones that they're building. You know, $2,000 drones, $20,000 drones flying into $4 million tanks, you know, whatever, $4 million equipment explosion, right? Okay. But they had backing. Iran did this with two backing them up. Not that much from anybody.

• 37:00Tom Ellsworth?

  No.

• 37:01Patrick Bet-David?

  If you think about it.

• 37:02Tom Ellsworth?

  No one that would admit it.

• 37:03Patrick Bet-David?

  No one that would admit it, but maybe a little bit, but not that much. So to me. I don't know. To me, if this goes, uh, uh, this goes the way it's going. So if you're saying, well, let's give weapons to their people. Well, if US and Israel. Went after Iran thinking it's going to be a regime change or regime collapse. If the IRGC. Still runs Iran. After the ceasefire, there is no regime collapse or regime change.

• 37:32Tom Ellsworth?

  That's correct. Yeah, no.

• 37:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me say it again. If IRGC still runs Iran, there was no regime change or regime collapse.

• 37:40Tom Ellsworth?

  Right.

• 37:40Patrick Bet-David?

  So if you give weapons to the people. You think the people are going to have better weapons than America and Israel has? No. So I don't even think that's going to work. I, I, I don't even think that's going to work.

• 37:51Tom Ellsworth?

  I think you need a civil war there.

• 37:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, you, you, you're, the, the, the difference between a civil war that we had in America versus a civil war in Iran. Is the civil war in Iran, the government is willing to kill its own people.

• 38:06Tom Ellsworth?

  Right.

• 38:07Patrick Bet-David?

  It's a very different kind of a civil war. It's not the civil war that you think about. Yesterday I was talking to. Jiang, the guy that's, you know, he made the prediction with the. I said, I said, so tell me what it's like, the climate in China. I said, what does China say when it comes on to COVID? He says China's position is. That US funded a bioweapon and they dropped it. And that's what the mainstream media said in China. I said, really? Yeah, the state media. Cause he's in Beijing, right? I said, "How many Chinese questioned that narrative?" He says, "You don't understand, that's not the culture in China." What the state media says, guess what you do? You buy, okay? Because that's the culture that is in China. So, in Iran, the state media says what? Do you know the state media, there's a clip of a guy on state media saying, "Hey, parents,

• 38:52Patrick Bet-David?

  send your kids to get killed in the war, okay? Send your kids because it's the right thing to do." Rob, I don't know if you have it in the notes or not, I send it to you. Maybe you have one of the two, one of them is very aggressive. The other one is, uh, here, let me send this to you. I just texted it to you, Rob, if you want to go to it and find it. Uh, but it's in my notes, there you go, that one right there. Watch this. This is footage earlier, but look how they're speaking. Go back a little bit, go ahead.

• 39:19Speaker 04

  Mama na, babah ha.

• 39:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Mothers and fathers.

• 39:22Speaker 04

  Bachar bheegirid bhai tu xiyabon.

• 39:23Patrick Bet-David?

  Take your children's hands by hand, come to the streets. You want your sons to be a man?

• 39:27Speaker 04

  Yek kahramane, aamede wasad meydan. Send your children at night to the road.

• 39:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Your child were turned into what, what was the last word?

• 39:41Tom Ellsworth?

  Men.

• 39:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Turned into men. That's state media. That's state media. So you think a civil war is gonna work in Iran like the way you think? Even with weapons? The government will gladly kill their own people. So, i-if there's, if you, listen. The debate of if you're gonna do it or not, we're past it. We're here now. If you want to get the job done, you either have to show up and get it done. If you don't, you just emboldened Iran in ways we've never seen. Because if IRGC is still in charge, it was not a regime collapse, it was not a regime change. They're still in control. And if you think they're gonna, uh, they're thinking six months, they can't wait for Trump to be out. Somebody else will come in.

• 40:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Five, 10, 15, 20 years from now, it'll be a 9/11 times 10. And then they're gonna sit back and say, "Well, let me tell you, we should have finished the job 20 years ago." They're not gonna stop. They right now feel so confident. They right now feel so confident about themselves.

• 40:40Speaker 03

  What does going all the way look like to you, like 10 out of 10, like extreme in terms of trying to take it out all the way? Because that's what I'm stuck on is.

• 40:45Patrick Bet-David?

  I agree with you. I don't think there's winning here for him. I think whatever he does. I think, I think if they go out and take out Iran, Republicans lose midterms. AOC is going to be the president in 2028. Or Newsom. Newsom's wife, the more she speaks, the more she hurts him. She's horrible. But I think, winning, you're winning for 20 years from now. You're not winning for the next 6, 12 months. If the president's doing what he's doing right now for midterms. Then you're thinking marketing and PR wise. You're not thinking long-term America.

• 41:16Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 41:17Patrick Bet-David?

  You're not thinking long-term war. Uh, protection.

• 41:19Speaker 06

  Can you win this war long-term? I mean, this is a war that's been going on for thousands of years, basically, right?

• 41:24Patrick Bet-David?

  With IRGC, Iran used to be very peaceful under Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. They were allies with everybody. They got along with everybody. There was no issues in the Middle East when it was Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. Nothing. There was no issues. Go look at the death toll. Nothing. They weren't picking on anybody.

• 41:39Tom Ellsworth?

  Have you seen the historical pictures of the citizens? They were not wearing hijabs. They were, it looked like a western country and it was actually. Hollywood people like Frank Sinatra used to go there on vacation.

• 41:48Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 41:49Tom Ellsworth?

  And ski.

• 41:50Speaker 06

  It's just interesting to me because historically you look at the region, there's always been a conflict there.

• 41:55Patrick Bet-David?

  Right.

• 41:55Speaker 06

  Like, isn't there always going to be a conflict there?

• 41:57Patrick Bet-David?

  There is, there's always going to be a conflict there, but if you look.

• 42:00Speaker 06

  This is a different adversary. When you see clips like that, like they're fighting a different war than the war that we think.

• 42:05Patrick Bet-David?

  I know.

• 42:06Speaker 06

  To us, this is a, this is an economic war. This is a war for.

• 42:09Patrick Bet-David?

  You're right.

• 42:10Speaker 06

  Our living standards and things like that. This is a different, this is, you know, theological to these people.

• 42:15Patrick Bet-David?

  To, to, to the, to the extremists, which is the one out of five.

• 42:18Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 42:18Patrick Bet-David?

  The 80% don't want this. The 80% are begging for this thing to be done. The 80% are begging for the IRGC to be gone. By the way, look at Gulf states. In UAE, you can't act like that. You're going to jail. Crime is low in UAE, crime is low in Dubai, crime is low in these types of, they're not gonna tolerate this behavior. So even the Gulf states have now said, look, we want to have a good relationship with the West. Even, even Turkey wants to have a good relation with the West. Iran is a different animal in a big way. And if they continue and they keep getting stronger like this, this event comes out and they stay stronger. You're, you're gonna have this issue to come up for decades to come, and I don't think it's gonna slow down. I think they're gonna get tougher. And, uh, but again, short term, I don't think there's a win.

• 43:04Patrick Bet-David?

  The win is only a long-term win 10 to 20 years. I don't think there's any short-term win. And the noise in media is so loud, the noise in media is so flipping loud, just to see the power of the message. Every time somebody comments something negative, the first thing I do is I go to their account and I say, no, this guy's really, he started his account nine years ago. And then I go, this guy started his account a week ago in April of 2026. You're a bot.

• 43:27Tom Ellsworth?

  No followers.

• 43:28Patrick Bet-David?

  And by the way, it's not everybody.

• 43:29Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah.

• 43:29Patrick Bet-David?

  So it's not like you can cop out and say everyone's a bot. No, no.

• 43:32Tom Ellsworth?

  No.

• 43:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Some people are converters of the bots influence, that their brain got rotted to believe that it's happening. But my, my concern is this thing, if ceasefire goes, Iran's gonna come out and say, we beat the biggest empire in the world. And against Israel. Imagine you're on TV and you're gonna say, Israel and US tried to take us out and they failed. We were right. And the Iranian people are like, oh shit. Now what do we do? We have to listen to exactly what they're gonna be saying now moving forward. If you thought they were extreme, they're about to double down on their extreme. I don't think people realize how much of a stranglehold Iran has over the global oil market.

• 44:11Patrick Bet-David?

  I mean, that was really the crux of, of why this, you know, ended up being as difficult as it was, because people woke up and realized like, holy cow. They don't even have to actually drop bombs in the strait, they just have to threaten to drop bombs in the strait. And you can shut down the global oil market to a large degree.

• 44:27Tom Ellsworth?

  And they're thinking deeply about the future. Financial Times reported this morning that in addition to the toll booth that they wanna put together and Oman says, hey, I can help you with that. Uh, they want a dollar per barrel of oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz. That's the toll that Iran says. It wants and it doesn't want euros, it doesn't want US dollars, petrodollars, it wants crypto. Why? Because you can't seize crypto later.

• 44:50Speaker 03

  You can't tolerate that.

• 44:51Tom Ellsworth?

  You can't freeze assets.

• 44:53Speaker 03

  You can't tolerate that if that's if that's actually.

• 44:55Patrick Bet-David?

  What do you mean you can't tolerate? Don't you think that's strategic on their behalf?

• 44:58Speaker 03

  Yeah, it is, but that breaks everything, though.

• 45:00Patrick Bet-David?

  What do you mean that breaks everything?

• 45:02Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, now you can't you can't freeze the bank account and it's crypto.

• 45:05Speaker 03

  That undermines the petrodollar system.

• 45:06Tom Ellsworth?

  This tells me that they're thinking a step ahead.

• 45:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Guess what? They're gonna be like, look, you guys in the US are all about crypto now, why not just pace in crypto? Why? Why are you not doing that? So I'm telling you, you can, you have to respect a vicious, nasty, divisive, creative, critical-thinking enemy. And these guys, these guys, they're doing, by the way, even marketing, they've done such a good job. Even propaganda, they've done such a good job. And to ask something like this, but go back to what you were saying, so what what power did Iran have with Strait of Hormuz with oil, pre the attack? And what level of power will they have with Strait of Hormuz post-attack, depending on negotiation? What do you think's gonna happen?

• 45:50Tom Ellsworth?

  I mean, they they obviously, I think they they always had this power, just because you know, geographically, like you've done great work on that, geographically, I mean, it's so easy for them to control because of the sheer, you know, the mountainous region of it. It's almost impossible for, you know, a foreign invader to put boots on the ground and actually control that region the way that Iran can, so.

• 46:12Tom Ellsworth?

  I mean, there's a lot of strategists who have known this, and it's why I think people were always very tepid about doing something like, you know, invading Iran, in part because this disruption was always so front and center. Going forward now, though, it's just, it's become so obvious to everybody that, hey, Iran plays a much bigger role in the global oil market than they than we suspected, and that's not gonna change going forward.

• 46:37Speaker 03

  Big X factor, though, is the drones, because it's not even like you have to put a blockade there now. Like before, people worried about them blockading or putting mines in the water, but now they can make these drones in their garage for a couple thousand dollars, and just the mere threat of that will stop people from going through. So I think the drones have made the Strait of Hormuz chokehold even more powerful.

• 46:53Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, it's interesting how much the technology's starting to change now and influence the way the militaries are fighting, because you're seeing these autonomous vehicles increasing.

• 47:01Speaker 03

  play such a big role that even a poorer country can actually defend itself pretty well against the United States. 10,000 drone could take out a multi-billion dollar ship.

• 47:10Patrick Bet-David?

  Such a great case study.

• 47:12Tom Ellsworth?

  It is.

• 47:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Such a great case study.

• 47:14Tom Ellsworth?

  So guess what? I'm a small, I'm a small oil nation. I will never have enough troops to do anything in the, in the name of traditional warfare, nor will anybody sell me airplanes. I can't get the, um, the mirages and the exoces, all those things that used to happen that were Arab countries would buy from France. I can't get that, nor can I get stuff from the United States. But I've got billions and billions and billions of dollars. I will never have enough troops. There's your case study, Pat. But guess what? All of a sudden overnight, I got 10,000 drones. I got 10,000 drones. Guess what? Little old me is now a military power in my region. And the only question is what payload do I have on them? And what is the sophistication of the

• 47:58Tom Ellsworth?

  electronics to keep? Because you can shoot down drones with a variety of electronic things. But this is exactly what we're talking about. It's no longer who's got the biggest army line up on both sides like Rome or Braveheart.

• 48:12Patrick Bet-David?

  The question, Tom, for right, but for, for sure, but how many of these shipping companies are even going to trust the ceasefire? Like here's one of the biggest ones.

• 48:19Speaker 03

  They're gonna wait.

• 48:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Right? Look, the story just came out five hours ago.

• 48:22Tom Ellsworth?

  I don't understand why we're talking about shipping companies. They didn't close the Gulf. Lloyds of London closed the Gulf. The insurance guy closed it. So if Mayorkas cautious and straight to Hormuz, my question is, do they have insurance and from who? Well, that's really what closed the member. Lloyd said, you're not covered on insurance. And everybody said, well, I don't want the risk and I have no insurance.

• 48:42Patrick Bet-David?

  The president said he would take the risk.

• 48:43Tom Ellsworth?

  And we said that we would make the United States Insurance Company. And we said.

• 48:48Speaker 03

  And then they said, well, we're worried about the lives of the people too. That was their next excuse after the insurance. But, um, I mean, through the prism of the insurance company, would you feel comfortable in insuring boats going through the?

• 48:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Rob, how many have already gone through this morning? Do we have?

• 49:00Speaker 03

  I don't think any.

• 49:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Has anything been reported that anything's gone through yet?

• 49:04Speaker 03

  There was, I saw a report right before I left.

• 49:06Patrick Bet-David?

  The hotel that there was a ship going through. There was one going through. You know where it was from? I'm not sure. Can you pull up Rob to see who it was?

• 49:13Tom Ellsworth?

  It's the straight. They have a straight tracker.

• 49:16Tom Ellsworth?

  Sounds like straight jacket if you say it fast.

• 49:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Restricted today. I just want to know how many went through today. Are there any? So it says 10 transit, 10 ships in transit.

• 49:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Is there any other place to go see this Rob if anything's gone through? 10 ships in.

• 49:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Interesting. If he's saying, if Colin is saying one went through, I'd be curious to know who that one was. Right here, ships transiting now, 7. 7 right now. Last 24 hours, 10?

• 49:43Tom Ellsworth?

  Normal daily activity. We're down, they're at 10%.

• 49:47Patrick Bet-David?

  So can you find out if those 10 that went the last 24 hours paid anything to Iran? Those 10 that went through the last 24 hours, did they pay anything to Iran?

• 49:59Tom Ellsworth?

  Great question.

• 50:00Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm curious to know if they're already demanding that and if the world is organically accepting the terms. You know, to say, look, just pay the guy. I saw a report that Trump was saying that they're going to split the tolls. I don't know how, you know, truthful that is, but he said he was going to try to negotiate some way to split the tolls. Yes, some ships have reportedly paid in some cases. I don't know if that's a good thing or not. What do you think about that 50 50 split ownership? I don't know. It seems like a. Trump thing? This seems like sort of a classic government, you know, snafu where the government does something, overplays its hand and then all of a sudden they're taxing everybody. Cause who ultimately pays for all this stuff? I mean, taxes, taxes don't get paid by, by nobody. Taxes ultimately get paid by people who are consuming. So all of this,

• 50:43Patrick Bet-David?

  you know, what does it do in the long run? It drives up, you know, inflation marginally and ultimately people who consume oil end up paying for, for all of this. So I don't know.

• 50:55Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, those prices will get passed on to the consumer.

• 50:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Exactly. Well, we'll see. I mean, look, the the reality of it is, do you think the president's gonna come out of this without him not seeming like the, you know, victor in the negotiation?

• 51:10Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, no, make it sound good.

• 51:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Not sound, it has to be, because today, guys will filter out sound versus it being good.

• 51:19Tom Ellsworth?

  Mm hmm.

• 51:19Patrick Bet-David?

  It has to be good. Like, I I can't, I can't see, if any of those 10 terms happen, Iran won.

• 51:26Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah.

• 51:27Patrick Bet-David?

  If if that if that 10 stuff I just read, that happens, there's no way he's gonna let that happen.

• 51:30Tom Ellsworth?

  I'd be shocked if he did.

• 51:31Patrick Bet-David?

  There's no way he's gonna let that happen. I I there's no way he's gonna let that happen. I don't think.

• 51:35Tom Ellsworth?

  Mm hmm.

• 51:36Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't think he's gonna let that happen.

• 51:37Speaker 04

  I think at this point, Trump, Trump's win is, do they win the midterms? Do they even split the midterms at this point? Because now, I mean, God, a month ago, the Senate, there was almost no chance the Senate was gonna go Democrat. And in the last, you know, 10 days, it's 50 50 now, which is kind of crazy to think.

• 51:56Patrick Bet-David?

  North Carolina, which he won three times, a guy's running in North Carolina, a senator, Democrat, who, I think the last time he won by 30 points, the president did, the North Carolina race is now going potentially Democrat Senate race. So, I don't know.

• 52:10Speaker 04

  To me, that's an economic issue. To me, that is, you.

• 52:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Affordability.

• 52:15Speaker 04

  And this is why I don't like the ceasefire. The ceasefire, you know, somebody, I I said last night on Twitter that the problem with what's going on is that you've got a flow-through effect economically from the way these prices are gonna be reported in things like CPI and in all the economic data, where you could get into a point where we're into, say, the middle of June, July, August, where inflation is still high in all of the readings, in large part because the oil, the the year-over-year oil prices are just gonna be so high in comparison. You've got to get, I mean, you even look at the prices today, like people are saying, oh, the price is down so much. The price is still $92. It was $60 six weeks ago.

• 52:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 52:56Speaker 04

  So we're up 50%.

• 52:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Yep.

• 52:58Speaker 04

  You know, still, so you need a, you need another 30, 40% decline in oil prices to get back to just where we were. And we already had an inflation problem before any of this started.

• 53:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Yep.

• 53:09Speaker 04

  You know, there was some tiptoeing by the Fed around, you know, ah, can we actually cut rates more? Or do we need to start, you know, you know, being more cautious about all this? So.

• 53:17Tom Ellsworth?

  There's unemployment real, there's all these things that handcuff the Fed.

• 53:20Speaker 04

  Labor market looks weak, you know, so there's so many things that were already going on, and this kind of throws a wrench in. So many of those narratives where, I mean, you need oil back down to sixty bucks, sixty bucks yesterday at this point. Otherwise, I mean, with the ceasefire, the way traders are going to look at this, they look at a ceasefire and they say, okay, we, we know that the risks are reduced, but we need to hedge our bets still because what if something transpires in the next two weeks where, you know, oil potentially goes back to one hundred and fifteen bucks. So they're looking at this and they're, they're kind of waffling on this. They're not gonna, oil traders aren't going to take this right back to sixty bucks anytime soon. Because now they're looking at it and they say, well, there's still, there's still two, a two week window of risk here at least.

• 54:03Speaker 04

  So I would have preferred to see something that was definitive, that where, you know, you were able to actually look at this and say, this is a done deal. This isn't a ceasefire. This is over. And I mean, at least in terms of the economics of what's going on.

• 54:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, because the pressure's never going to be as high as it was twenty four hours ago. Now it's gone. And the, the time that you're able to negotiate exactly what you want is when. And the pressure's at the highest. You think the pressure's going to get any higher than two, uh, twenty four hours ago? I don't think so. I think you just lose a lot of leverage for negotiation. There's time to break. There's time to rest. There's time to think. There's time to re-strategize. There's time now to think. Uh, make maneuvers, move people from different areas, assume what's going to happen next. They've shown,

• 54:46Patrick Bet-David?

  they've shown they're pretty ready for the east of Iran in case something happens with those mountains. I don't know. Look, my, my heart breaks. Let me tell you where I go to. Of course, I'm an American, but I was born and raised in Iran. And when the Iran revolution happened and the war with Iraq, I, I sympathize with the families and the parents, how scared they are today. I saw, uh, the other day Armenians were celebrating, um, Easter at an Armenian church and Armenians were in the church. It reminded me of when I was a kid. And we'd go to these churches with my mom and my sister, or we'd go to this Assyrian church down the street from my grandmother's old house that she would live there.

• 55:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Rosa with Johnny and Victor, and we would go to her house right after the church and it was a great experience and. How afraid we were of what could happen. The wars when my dad would put the black tapes on the window. Me and my sister, I would sleep right by the window. I had a yellow Porsche, a, a, a poster above my bed. But my dad would come and tape the windows on. I would ask, why are you taping the windows? He says, because the blast is not going to cause the windows to go out if we tape them. So you would come to every house. It's black taped windows there. I sympathize with these kids that just want to be free. I sympathize with these parents that are there that just want to do the right thing for their kids. That's hard, uh, very hard. And I, I'd love nothing more for them to have similar liberties and freedoms that we have here in America.

• 56:10Patrick Bet-David?

  But unfortunately, as long as IRGC is in power, that'll never happen to them. They don't think that way. They, they are, they are fanatical type of a people. And then the argument can be for people to say, you know, well, that's not our problem. That's their problem. I understand that logical libertarian argument. Trust me, I used to be a libertarian full on. Where I would see that. And this morning I'm reading scripture and I come across Psalms. And Psalms 82 4 says, rescue the weak and the needy, deliver them from the hand of the wicked. Man, there's some wicked people in Iran, man, and they, they don't run it like you and I do. They don't live their lives like we do, but all we can do is pray. There are certain things that happens in your life, um, that is out of your hands.

• 56:54Patrick Bet-David?

  And the only thing you can do in those moments is pray. God is a big God and he's done, uh, things that seem impossible to the average person. And, uh, my faith is always going to be there to see, uh, what miracle could happen here. Anyways, we'll see. Having said that, let's get into the next story. While this is going on, the Pentagon comes out and asks for a 42% year-over-year hike in their budget. With a $1.5 trillion defense budget that they're asking for 2026. And this is a, a Baron story. Let me read this to you and then.

• 57:28Patrick Bet-David?

  We can go there, Rob. So eight big winners from Trump's historic one and a half trillion dollar defense request. And Tom, I'm going to come to you. Rob, is this, is that about this or no?

• 57:36Tom Ellsworth?

  Yes, it's Kevin Hassett.

• 57:38Patrick Bet-David?

  All right. So on Friday, Trump unveiled the fiscal's 2027 budget of one and a half trillion dollars. The one and a half trillion dollar number will be up 42%. And it's a historic increase not since seen since the Korean War, when the annual defense budget jumped from 14 billion in 1950 to 33 billion in 1951, almost a, in 48 billion in 1952. The Navy is projected to see its ship budget more than double, 65.8 billion versus 27.2, wrote vertical research partner analyst Bob Steller. Also seen a big jump in the Space Force. Its request from, of 71.2 billion represents 77% year-over-year increase. That

• 58:21Patrick Bet-David?

  is relatively good news for shipbuilders, General Dynamics, and Huntington Ingalls Industries, and for space startups, including Rocket Lab, Firefly Aerospace, and of course, privately held SpaceX. Huntington stock gains 2.8% on Monday. General Dynamics stock rose 0.7%. Rocket Lab stock went up 0.1, and Firefly shares went up 5.8%. The Defense Department is also asking for 85 F-35 jets from Lockheed Martin, up from 47 in fiscal year 2026. The Army gets an increase in the Armored Multipurpose Vehicle, or AMPV, made by Britain's BAE. And, you know, last but not least, both of those stocks, L3 Harris

• 59:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Technologies and RTX, have gained more than 65% over the last 12 months, leaving them trading for about 26 time estimated 2026 earnings. Tom, your thoughts on this?

• 59:11Tom Ellsworth?

  So there's two things going on in here. One is forward, and the other is replenish. On the forward side, they're taking the things that have worked. The F-35 is working. We've just seen it work. And so they're like, we need more of what works. And some of those F-35s are going to find their way to Saudis. Some of them are going to find their way to Israel. There's a variety of places where we are going to Have those and use them. And that's double, you know, almost doubling the 47 that from the previous. Then there's replenish. We have been, every year, the defense budget, you know, you buy bombs, you buy missiles, you don't use them. You buy surface-to-air SAM, surface-to-air missiles.

• 59:55Tom Ellsworth?

  You buy air-to-air combat, you know, all of the things that are out there. And now, guess what? We've been using them up. So there is a big, big, we got to, you know, we just had everybody over to grandma's house. We stayed there a week, we had Thanksgiving, and as we leave, we need to make a Costco trip because we got to refill grandma's pantry. Because we've eaten everything in her pantry. So we got to replenish all the bombs and stock and missiles and things that we've used up. Number one. Number two, we're buying a bunch of stuff that works. And number three, we're discovering just how valuable Space Force is, and so we are radically increasing what's been spent on that.

• 1:00:34Tom Ellsworth?

  And lastly, war is really good for business if you're a defense contractor. The sad thing about war is they're the soulless, faceless defense contractors see it as a testbed, and they see it, they want, they want war, they want border skirmishes, they want, you know, aircraft engagement with North Korea and China to just kind of test each other a little bit up there in the skies over the Sea of Japan. They want that. And this gives them an ability to test things. And so, this is the price tag. This is the price tag of forward armament. This is a price tag of adding Space Force.

• 1:01:15Tom Ellsworth?

  This is also the price tag of refilling the pantry because we just used up all of, you know, all of our bombs.

• 1:01:53Speaker 06

  Now, more than ever, we need someone on our side. But Rob Whitman? Whitman's votes drove up costs, cut Medicaid, and risked 350,000 Virginians' health care to pay for tax breaks for himself and his donors. He's not on our side. Shannon Taylor will fight corruption, cut taxes, and bring down costs. This November, vote for Shannon Taylor. She's for us. Paid for by HMP, the HouseMajorityPac.com. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

• 1:02:22Speaker 04

  How many discounts does USAA Auto Insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount, safe driver discount, new-vehicle discount, storage discount, legacy discount. How many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit usaa.com/autodiscount. Restrictions apply.

• 1:02:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Colin. Yeah, I mean, it seems like a big number. I mean, in totality... Do you support it? Do you think this is a good thing we're doing to get tighter and get more fighters? I don't know. I mean, I'm not privy to, you know... The crazy thing to me, these numbers are so big. I mean, where does $1.5 trillion even go? I do, I like a lot of the aspects of it. I mean, here's one thing. In terms of long-term innovation, the US military has actually been in, had an incredible multiplier effect on the US economy in the long run. So out of all of the places where we spend a lot of money, the military is one of these things where, you know, whether it's the internet or, you know, things like the, just the knock-on effect of all of the different technologies

• 1:03:23Patrick Bet-David?

  that go into a lot of this. I mean, you look at people like Palmer Lucky and people who are, you know, incredible innovators. I mean, going to, you know, the whole Space Force thing, you know, people mocked that a few years ago. But now, you know, controlling space and, you know, who's got the most satellites? Who's got the ability to see the rest of the world? That all of a sudden looks like the, arguably, the most important strategic, you know, economic and military viewpoint of anything. So, I don't know. There's definitely, there's a lot to liken here. I think the problem with these humongous...

• 1:03:57Speaker 03

  As you go back to things like, you know, these, you know, these audits of like the Pentagon where they're like, you know, whoopsies, we lost a few hundred billion dollars and we just don't know where it went. And it's like, how, how the hell does that happen? Uh, Brandon. Yeah, of all the things in the world that there are to piss me off, this is my probably number one. Because it's like the biggest or second biggest line item in the defense budget, you know, after Medicare and social security. And it's an objective fact that 25% of the existing 800 billion gets lit on fire, right? It goes to nothing, just gets price gouged because we let these four defense contractors overcharge us because it went from 200 in the 90s after the Cold War to just four or five of them today.

• 1:04:41Speaker 03

  And when it comes to the defense contractors, they don't just want war, they need war. They would shrivel up and die without a war. Like I'm of the belief that since World War II, we haven't had a necessary war. We've had wars that they've lobbied for that they've fought hard for to get into, you know, whether it's the Korean War, whether it's the Cold War, whether it's the war against terror, whether it's the NATO against Russia, when Russia wanted to be part of NATO. All of those weren't necessary. They were necessary for the beast that was created during World War II, the military industrial complex. Now, when it comes to this, I would cut it down to 500 billion, not increase to 1.5 trillion. You know, make them get the most out of what they're using right now because they're not even spending the full 800 billion of it. 300 billion of it's going to waste.

• 1:05:24Speaker 03

  So what, we're just gonna make the number bigger so that the number that's wasted gets bigger? No, I'm not, I'm not a fan of lighting money on fire, especially when it's taxpayer money and we're running a deficit every year and we're already at 40 trillion and we're just at 35 trillion. Like that's where affordability.

• 1:05:39Patrick Bet-David?

  A lot of people, day-to-day, regular people would side with you. And they would say, that makes sense. Why are we doing it? Right? But I think the better question to ask Brandon, to be honest with you, is the following. I was in the military and I would order parts for Humvees. And I would go to my Sergeant Braxton, if you's around, I haven't spoken to the guy for 20 some years, I love Sergeant Braxton. I would say Sergeant Braxton, why is this lug nut? Why is this ball joint, whatever for the Hummer, $2,800? This is really a $400 product while it's the government, we always overpaid. That doesn't make any sense to me. So this is why I was excited about Doge. Yeah. Because we were gonna get to the bottom of this.

• 1:06:23Patrick Bet-David?

  If you're running a business of, you hire a new CEO, first thing they're gonna look at and say, let me renegotiate all the contracts. Why are we spending so much money with this? I'll never forget, one of the things we did is, we had a guy that would keep buying memberships. Because he controlled the company credit card. You would remember this guy. He bought nine, we were like, how many reoccurring things are we paying for? 900 things. I said, what? Yeah. So this guy comes in and audits, is like, we don't need to pay 900 different things of memberships. That we had. So one by one by one, we don't need this, we don't need this, we need this, we need that. Okay. I think the bigger question here to ask is, you have two case studies. You have Russia and Ukraine, US, Israel and Iran. And we both, all of us around the world saw what became very powerful tool?

• 1:07:04Patrick Bet-David?

  Drones. So I wanna know what we're doing to change the strategy of the future wars. Whether it's gonna be, if we go back and keep buying weapons the way we bought for decades, okay, fine. How much of it is going into the new warfare? How much of it is the defense against cyber warfare? Because people right now, you know, whenever, when you're, when you're healthy, guess what you don't think about? Your health. When you're healthy, how do you eat when you're healthy? Bad. Whatever you wanna eat, and then all of a sudden you have a heart attack. And then all of a sudden you have cancer. All of a sudden you go to the doctor and you're like, whoa, I remember one time I went to the doctor, the doctor's like, you may have, because I couldn't speak for six months, I literally lost my voice. Tom will remember this. This was how long ago, 15 years ago, 10 years ago, something like that, 13 years ago.

• 1:07:50Patrick Bet-David?

  And I go to the same doctor that was Whitney Houston's doctor for your throat. And they went in, they said, there's something there, and it could be cancerous. And I was going to a trip to Hawaii, Monday they said we do the surgery, they came and cut it. When they cut it, it was Thanksgiving. I couldn't speak to anybody on Thanksgiving. If you're at Thanksgiving at my house, I'm texting you. Wow. So family people were talking shit to me, and I'm like, the only way I can respond back was in text. So until you have experienced cyber warfare, you don't think about the importance of it. Until the system, the grid is taken out and we don't have power and it's in the cold and a cold front comes and you're like, wait a minute, the power of a heater, you're not thinking about. Until the banking system is hit, until you look up in the sky and says,

• 1:08:33Patrick Bet-David?

  how the hell are there 10,000 drones coming? And you see things blowing up, you're not going to be thinking about the importance of this. So I don't know, I, I think there's a part of me that's like, let's stay tight. There's another part of me that's like, look, man, we gotta make investments in future potential warfare to protect us against crazy players, especially after we just killed the top 50 most powerful, highest ranking people in a country that they're not seizing to exist? And they're gonna keep the power? And you want me not to protect the military? I don't know. And then you go to the other side of military industrial complex. So you see all these stocks that they're going up, you're like, hey, man, it's like a very good. They're like, hey, another war, no, keep it going, keep the war going, we're making money, keep it going, we need war, we need war.

• 1:09:15Patrick Bet-David?

  I understand all the arguments, but I'm always gonna lean more on insurance, preventative measures, long-term than, you know, cheap, being too cheap today.

• 1:09:24Speaker 03

  I'm with you and I, and I'm totally open to that, you know, like for a long time I was with the mindset of like, you know what, fine, we spend as much as the remaining 10 mil, um, we spend as much as the next 10 militaries combined in the world. Okay, fine, we're the, we're the most safe country in the world, fine, sure, we get taxed a lot to pay for that, fine, okay. But when you tell me that we're running out of military equipment to go against a country that's much smaller than us, when like, we better have every single measure that we have, that we need in, in any possible situation. We don't have that. So how's that possible for the last 20 years? We've been spending at that rate and we don't have everything we need, which we don't, which shows it wasn't spent well.

• 1:09:58Patrick Bet-David?

  No, you're, and let me show you something, let me show you something that I think this is the tweet of the week. Rob, I'm gonna send you these both. And I want you to pull them up specifically, pull up the other one that actually breaks down the numbers. Okay, you know NASA just recently, the Artemis 2 went into space, okay? And one tweet that's going viral is this tweet by Gunter Eagleman. He, he's got some interesting tweets that he puts out. NASA Artemis 2, $4 billion. The California bullet train, $126 billion.

• 1:10:31Patrick Bet-David?

  NASA Artemis 2 started planning in 2017, the other one started in 96. Passengers for passengers in California, zero. Miles traveled, 695,000 miles traveled. Miles traveled for the bullet train in California, zero. And by the way, you know what's crazy? As crazy as this is that people are making this comparison of how much it costs for NASA to do it versus the bullet train? Do you know what the numbers are if you look at what Elon does? When he's got his launches, we've done this before.

• 1:11:00Speaker 03

  Yeah, compared to NASA and its debate sex.

• 1:11:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, the Falcon 9 is 67 million dollars per launch. The space shuttle for NASA is 450 to 1 and 1/2 billion. The Falcon Heavy that Musk does, 97 million dollars per launch. The one that they do is 4 billion dollars. And as crazy as this sounds, guess who was in Newsom's backyard for a couple of decades?

• 1:11:24Speaker 03

  Musk.

• 1:11:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Guess who he could have gone to and say, hey Musk, can I talk to you? What's that? Hey, man, we're spending 120 some billion dollars on this. It's like, I got the money. How the hell do we do this to make it cheaper instead of spend all the money that's not working? Can you help me out? No, instead, what does he do during COVID? Doesn't allow Tesla people to do their thing. And then he's like, screw you, I'm going to.

• 1:11:45Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:11:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Austin. It's these types of things that the American people see and they see waste. And so I don't want to give you a single penny for something like this. I don't want to give you a single penny for this. So I get the argument, but if they do it right.

• 1:11:59Speaker 03

  It's like they don't have an ownership mentality. They have like a pillaging mentality, you know? If everybody had a collective ownership mentality of America, then they wouldn't pillage the country the way that.

• 1:12:06Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm going to get to this next story and Colin, I'm going to come to you first. So be careful how you answer this question. There's a lot of pressure with the story, so I want you to be ready for it. Americans are increasingly saying they won't pay their taxes this year as a political protest. Okay, here's what could happen to them according to Market Watch. Everybody wants to know what Colin thinks. Hang tight, let me read it to you, then I'm coming to you. Here we go. When Jovan Granado Gomez completed paperwork for his new job, he carried out an act of protest by checking off one box. A 25-year-old cook in Phoenix checked exempt on the tax form that tells his employer whether to withhold the money from his paycheck for federal income taxes. Checking exempt means his employer won't withhold

• 1:12:51Patrick Bet-David?

  any of his pay for federal taxes, allowing Granado Gomez to keep the money himself instead of paying the money to the Internal Revenue Service to fund government operations that he does not support. Those include the war in Iran, the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, and what he sees as too little funding for healthcare and education. At some point, the only way to get financial relief, to start hearing out our pleas, is if we stop paying them the money, he says, this 25-year-old. People's reasons for wanting to opt out of paying taxes vary. The war in Iran, immigration arrests by ICE, illegal immigration in the first place, the Epstein files, the military operation in Venezuela, waste, fraud, abuse in public assistance programs, and so on.

• 1:13:32Patrick Bet-David?

  But they all point to Fury that bridging the political spectrum. The failure to pay penalty is 0.5% of unpaid tax, and it builds to 25% the longer the sum goes unpaid. The failure to file the penalty is 5%, also eventually building to 25%. And the IRS charges 7% interest on those penalties that compound daily. Should people pay their taxes, or should they protest? Yes, pay your taxes. I mean, aside from the fact that jail is no fun, I mean, these are like the most punitive interest rates that you're ever gonna see. I mean, this makes, you know, the high credit card rates almost look friendly. So, I don't know.

• 1:14:17Patrick Bet-David?

  It's interesting, thinking about all this in the context of everything else we've kind of been discussing, because a lot of this seems like it's a situation where the government has gotten so big and so complex in so many ways that I think a lot of people look at the situation and they're protesting in, you know, kind of irrational ways, but in ways that are a response to basically, like, can you unscramble this egg at this point? Because it's, you know, the California thing is interesting, because, I mean, I'm a California boy, and I know front- And center that the one of the big problems I'm actually surprised they got even as far as they did with that because

• 1:14:56Patrick Bet-David?

  the the regulations to actually put down even probably 10 feet of railroad track in California is like a colossal effort because there's so many competing regulatory agencies involved in everything. There's so many different rules, different municipalities, the localities. All these different agencies. So I mean, I got I went through a two-year process of getting a house permit. When after we purchased our house, I had no idea what I was getting myself into in the state of California. I mean, it took me two years just to get the stamp of approval to start rebuilding a and tear down a garage. Where where in California? In San Diego County, which you know, San Diego is arguably one of the, you know, one of the more moderate places

• 1:15:41Patrick Bet-David?

  in all of California. And so, but the rules are crazy and the rules conflict with the different localities and the different environmental agencies. So and you get into this situation where you start to realize that holy cow, we've scrambled this egg and can you unscramble it at this point? And so, I don't know, going back to Doge, you know, one thing I really liked that Trump did was the, you know, this thing where he was for every regulation that was new, he would unwind to, you know, something like that, that you know, you start to make the world less and less complex because that's the other thing that's really frustrating about, I think, what a lot of people experience in everyday life is that the world is getting really, really complex. It's getting more and more complex, harder to navigate

• 1:16:25Patrick Bet-David?

  in so many different ways. And then they confront the government where you're just doing trying to do simple things like get a house permit to remodel a home. And you're like, you're making my life more difficult. You're not helping me. You're supposed to be on my side here. Like what's going on? I think that's the the experience that a lot of people have that's frustrating and and, you know, kind of boiling over into these views like. Hey, I'm just not even gonna pay my taxes, even if it risks me going to jail. Yeah, Brandon.

• 1:16:51Speaker 03

  Yeah, it's a sad thing. I think the most important thing in any society is a strong middle class. And that's greatly under threat right now because, you know, it's an objective fact that the average salary is a lower number than the average cost of living right now. And, you know, I think when that happens, people go into a desperate state, they get into an emotional state, they see things they disagree with in the media. And, you know, the government has let people down over the last, I don't know, what number you want to put on it, 57 years in a big way. Really put the people in a tough position. And that's a scary thing for the government. That's why we're seeing socialist sentiment. That's why we're seeing these protests and emotional things. And, you know, people are impressionable. They go along with what they hear and they probably don't understand the full situation. But like, you know, the fact of the matter is if you let your middle class get beat up enough, that's when bad things happen.

• 1:17:34Speaker 03

  That's when civilizations go socialist and vote in socialist leaders. So, yeah, you should pay your taxes. We got swindled for sure with the whole taxes thing, but that's a different rabbit hole. But I mean, yeah, the law is to pay taxes, so pay the taxes. But I think, yeah, the bigger issue is the government letting the people down. And we should be more worried about what's happening to the middle class because that's the biggest barrier against socialism.

• 1:17:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom.

• 1:17:57Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, Jovan Granado Gomez, you let the writer of the article put your full name in it. So sometimes privacy is a good thing, but I'll say one thing. You mean well, however, not sending government money has never stopped them from spending far more than they have. And send us all a bill for it 10 years from now. That doesn't stop anything. And I think, you know, we all, we're not ready for the full outcome. The full outcome is if you take all the waste, fraud and abuse and the excess price of the, you know, defense contractor and billings, here's what happens.

• 1:18:42Tom Ellsworth?

  The economy gets cut by 33%. Here's why. Because all the people that are, you know, the waste, fraud and abuse, which pisses me off, all those people are buying things. Well, those things don't get bought in the economy anymore. If you take 25%, you know, gouge burn out of the defense contractors, well, guess what? What does that do to the PE ratio of all the defense indexes and stocks? So the stock market goes down. We have a more honest economy, but everything goes down.

• 1:19:13Speaker 03

  Including prices.

• 1:19:15Tom Ellsworth?

  Hmm, maybe, yeah, maybe. So, but this has gone on for a long time. They're going back to the eighties, people would pay books. Send me $4.99 and I'll give you this book. Don't pay taxes. Just send in this letter. And then I read all about it. You know, one of my friends was telling me about the book and I read about the book and I read about this. I said, do you know that this guy went to jail for writing the book? Did you know that he actually did? He refused it? He like, you know, I'm not doing it. I'm not doing it. Okay, sir, put your hands behind your back. It's so, no, seriously, he went to, he went to Danbury, you know, minimum security prison. What are you doing here? I wrote a book about never paying your taxes. What happened? Well, the people that collect the taxes were really pissed off.

• 1:19:59Speaker 05

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• 1:20:29Speaker 06

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• 1:21:03Speaker 05

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• 1:21:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, I mean, this, this also happened post Vietnam War when people were protesting, wanted to pay taxes. It was in the thousands, maybe like 10,000 when you read about it. But do you know who actually? He came up with the idea of tax withholding in your income. When you get your check, you know who came up with that idea that proposed to the government? You will never be able to get, if I tell you who it is, you're gonna say there's no way in the world he came up with this idea.

• 1:21:36Speaker 03

  Reagan?

• 1:21:37Patrick Bet-David?

  Nope, go before that. And he said, it's the biggest mistake I made in my career.

• 1:21:44Speaker 03

  Politician or business guy?

• 1:21:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Milton Friedman.

• 1:21:46Speaker 03

  Oh, man.

• 1:21:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Milton Friedman.

• 1:21:49Speaker 03

  Wow.

• 1:21:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Can you verify that, Rob? Milton Friedman is the guy that came up with the tax withholding. And then he says, why don't we do this, let's just kinda do, because people used to pay their taxes and their taxes, and it's like, why don't we come up with this? Milton Friedman, a strong person, helped invent the modern income tax withholding system in early 40s.

• 1:22:06Patrick Bet-David?

  And he said, it's the worst, at the end of his life, he was like, this was one of the worst ideas I came up with. So guess what? There is some logic behind it. Because they had a hard time going and collecting. And then it's like, why don't we just make it mandatory? And it's like, what a great idea, Milton. And then now you don't have a choice. And they just kinda take it out. So, when you read the history, I made a video about US taxes many, many years ago, because we went and, you know, started kinda looking into this. So I understand the argument, but sometimes even smart people come up with terrible ideas that become permanent ideas, and this is one of those ideas. Let's go to Jamie Dimon. Here's what Jamie Dimon just recently said. And specifically about the market, gas, and about New York City. Jamie Dimon

• 1:22:52Patrick Bet-David?

  warns of business exodus from New York City as Maldani lefty polls push for higher taxes. Watch the comparison he makes on the employees in New York, on how much it's increased or decreased versus Texas. Go ahead, Rob.

• 1:23:07Speaker 03

  Why are you buying more real estate in Maldani's Manhattan right now?

• 1:23:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Good answer he's gonna give.

• 1:23:13Speaker 07

  Well, it wasn't, it wasn't the mayor, we started doing that building five years ago.

• 1:23:19Speaker 07

  And but here's here's a lesson, and this lesson is true for companies, cities, states, and countries. You gotta compete. There's no divine right to success. Just read the history books. So our headcount in Manhattan, when I got to JP Morgan was 35,000, and now it's 26,000. Our headcount in Texas, it started 11,000, now it's 33,000. That's what happens. And you know, Parv is the highest individual taxes, highest state taxes, highest corporate taxes, anti-business sentiment, you know, and that's what happens. And you know, you could be any ideologue you want, but that's the real world, and people vote at their feet, and you can't get mad at them. You know, it's a free, if you believe in a free country, if someone wants to move to Florida, that's their right. And so, yeah, if they

• 1:24:04Speaker 07

  make too many mistakes, you know, the mayors, including Mayor Mnami, should worry about police, hospitals, subways, sanitation, storms, healthcare, schools. It's got nothing to do with Democrats or Republicans, and ideology distorts reality when it comes to something like that. So, but our building's great, we're still there, it's got some of the best people. But I think, when I grew up as a kid in New York City, and you don't, probably don't know this, there were 120 of the Fortune 500 were headquarters there. In the 1970s, 60 of 120 left, including Exxon, GE, IBM, United Car, Union Carbide. I mean,

• 1:24:45Speaker 07

  that's not what you want. And they're all going to Texas, you know, basically, or Nevada.

• 1:24:50Tom Ellsworth?

  Um, guess what? Jamie just summed up, why is it when everybody says it, when we talk about it, everybody talks about it. Yeah, all these people talk about it. Oh, that's Fox Business, don't listen to them. Oh, that's a conservative podcast, don't listen to them. Oh, you know, you know, Patrick Betavins made his money, he doesn't really care about anybody now. No, it's all BS, and they can pick on all that. But then when Jamie Dimon, very eloquently, in the space of two minutes and 10 seconds, lays it all out, suddenly, The Wall Street Journal and all the liberals, it's like headlines. Well, you know what? He's absolutely right, and you can't compete. And this is something that that Pat has said. Your ideas, nobody is buying your ideas. You're trying to sell something nobody is buying.

• 1:25:34Tom Ellsworth?

  And there's Jamie saying, "You gotta compete." So how many voices do you need to talk about this? This is so clear to me. And I, it shocks me, Pat. It's like, is there one liberal leader? And the answer is, I don't think they care. I honestly don't think they care because they think they're gonna get at the federal level, they're gonna be able to do everything they want at the federal level, and I don't think they worry as much about the state level. Otherwise, AOC would be in Mondani's office saying, "Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute. People in my, people in my district, their jobs are things like this." Instead, she blames it all on the macro. They always go for the macro, Pat. They head for the macro, and they don't really care about the micro.

• 1:26:16Tom Ellsworth?

  And what Jamie is talking about is you gotta be competitive on the micro. Unless Mondami doesn't really care about New York, it's about a much bigger plan. Colin.

• 1:26:26Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, this one drives me crazy. I grew up in Virginia, and right outside of DC. And over the course, my parents still live there, and I go back there a lot. And over the course of the last 25 years, every time I fly into Dulles Airport, you drive down the Dulles Corridor, and what is it now? That corridor, it used to be empty. There was nothing out there. Between Tyson's Corner and where I live in Alexandria, nothing. And now, it is, it's the Fortune 500. And what did Virginia do 20 years ago? They made it very specific that they wanted to become one of the most business-friendly states in the country. They made a huge effort to do this, and they achieved it. And so, it drives me crazy when I see states like New York,

• 1:27:11Speaker 04

  and, you know, where I live now, California, where they think that they can sort of just assume that people aren't gonna leave. And they make it so unfriendly for businesses, hostile to some people, seemingly, that, you know, you're pushing businesses out of there. To me, I, it just, it's crazy. I was laughing because when I landed here, I saw rain for the first time in, in six weeks. So, living in San Diego...

• 1:27:38Patrick Bet-David?

  I mean, it hadn't rained in March. It's, you know, Fort Lauderdale is amazing. And San Diego is arguably one of the only places in the country where the weather is better. And so, having lived in San Diego for the last 20 years, I always think to myself, you've got rich people here, you've got young, smart people going to the universities. And so, why wouldn't you make this town the most business-friendly town in the whole world? And just, you know, try to just bring everybody into this sort of a town. Because it's the sort of place where everybody wants to live. Like, people, people would love to live in places like Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and San Diego. And the difference between Fort Lauderdale and San Diego is that San Diego has become impossible to afford anything in large part because there's not enough businesses there.

• 1:28:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Because they've made it so unfriendly for businesses to form there that you don't end up, you don't end up having the jobs, you don't end up having the innovation and the multiplier effect that comes from being business-friendly. So, it's, it's very frustrating. It's, this one seems like sort of a no-brainer to me that, you know, the whole country was built on, you know, really the, the might of capitalism and the, you know, the innovative beauty of like our, you know, our creativity. San Diego is honestly one of the best-kept secrets, it was one of the best-kept secrets. You've got so many things to go through, teams, sports, Del Mar, you know, racetrack, the water. You, you're, you're in a very good spot.

• 1:28:58Tom Ellsworth?

  Best weather in America.

• 1:28:59Patrick Bet-David?

  Best weather in America, yeah, no question about it. Sports stink for the record. Well, you know, you, you're an hour and a half away.

• 1:29:04Tom Ellsworth?

  The Chargers are now the right Chargers.

• 1:29:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, but there's a reason, though, why that's happening.

• 1:29:09Speaker 03

  I mean, one of the saddest things ever is wasted potential. I mean, there's, it's not an accident those places are what they were. I mean, you know, New York's geographically gifted. It's set up in a way where it enabled all that growth. It has, you know, the deep-water ports, the access to the waterways. And, you know, it just like feeds people and has the Grand Central Station, all the airports. So, I mean, I don't know if it's resting on their laurels of, of past greatness or if it's a deliberate effort to drive out the, the right type of people and bring in another type of people. Because if you were trying to do everything in your power to make a city undesirable, you know, you would kind of run it the way that California and New York have been run. So, I, I, that's a fascinating question. Is there a deliberate effort to?

• 1:29:48Speaker 03

  Drive certain people out of there, or is it just, you know, the government wanting more money to spend and taking like the the fast way instead of the the maybe delayed gratification way? Because it could generate more taxes in in different ways than direct income taxes, like sales taxes or property taxes. So I don't know. I don't know if they're trying to drive people out, or if they're just assuming that people won't actually leave.

• 1:30:07Patrick Bet-David?

  I mean, Detroit used to be the richest city in America. You think they drove it out? Because they wanted to move them to other states and turn them liberal? Do you think they were absolutely dumb? With their policies, with that mayor who was a corrupt mayor multiple times and

• 1:30:21Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:30:21Patrick Bet-David?

  made it harder and harder and harder. And eventually like, listen, we're out of here. This is not the place to be living. So I think a part of it is stupidity. On the fact that they think people will stay because it's so good. Like it's the it's the why the mighty fall. Rob, can you pull up the five points of why the mighty fall? We talked about it yesterday as well with the Jiang. Uh, Jim Collins, he's known for his book, Good to Great. But one of my, the book I like more than Good to Great. Is why the mighty fall. And he makes five points on this. Hubris born of success. Okay? Leaders believe their success is deserving guaranteed, and they become arrogant. And they they ignored the hard work that created it. Undisciplined pursuit of more. Denial of risk and peril. Grasping for salvation. Capitulation to relevance or death.

• 1:31:05Patrick Bet-David?

  People think it'll never happen to me and it's too late. And you sit there saying, what happened to Kmart?

• 1:31:10Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:31:10Patrick Bet-David?

  What happened to Blockbuster? Oh, it'll never happen to us. It'll never happen to us. Gone. You realize Disney's been on since nineteen twenty-three. It's a hundred and eighty billion dollar company. Netflix has been around since nineteen ninety-seven. They're a four hundred billion dollar behemoth. Disney owns everything you can think about on the media space. Star Wars, Marvel, all this stuff. Netflix is like, no, we're just gonna keep building our company. It's what we're gonna be doing. And they're destroying them. By the way, let me continue with this Jamie Dimon thing. Tom, have you given this to Rob? Does Rob have this or no?

• 1:31:40Speaker 03

  Uh, no.

• 1:31:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, can you send it to Rob as well? So Rob can show it? Is there, do you have it in image format or no?

• 1:31:45Speaker 03

  Yeah, let me.

• 1:31:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. So while I'm reading this, you send it to him. So Jamie says the five risks. that he's worried about in 2026. Number one, he says inflation. Number two says intensifying competition. Meaning they're facing a growing set of non-traditional rivals and payments and digital banking. A whole new set of competitors is emerging based on blockchain. That's number two. Number three, Americans lost of trust in the US government. Number four is artificial intelligence, AI. And last but not least is weak allies. Europe is entering a decisive decade. And it is unable to act, he said. He cited internal trade barriers and expensive social welfare programs. But praised military spending boosts is what he's talking about.

• 1:32:30Patrick Bet-David?

  So now let's talk about AI. When it comes down to AI. This chart. Chamath shared that Tom handed to me if you want to go a little bit closer. It says the negative perception around AI is now worse than ICE. Nah. So the Pope has got the biggest plus minus. Shout out to Humberto. Plus 34. Stephen Colbert is plus 10. Rubio's minus 7. Sanctuary City is minus 10. JD Vance minus 11. AOC minus 11. Republican Party minus 14. Kamala Harris minus 17. Newsom minus 18. ICE minus 18. Look at AI. Minus 20. Democratic Party minus 22. Iran minus 53. This is from NBC News. Go a little bit lower.

• 1:33:13Patrick Bet-David?

  And it's leading to electricity prices rising. And they're blaming AI. Look at the numbers. Of what it was like. 2014 steady. 2016 steady. 2018 steady. 2020 steady. Look at 2021. Skyrocketing. Prices of electricity. And that's not even showing what happened in 25 or 26. If you want to go even a little bit lower, Rob. Look. Local opposition is growing and they are voting down data centers. Okay, from 2023. 5 to 2. Okay, and 5 is protested. 2 canceled. This is US data centers protested and canceled. About 40% of data centers now face sustained local opposition or eventually being canceled. 15 to 6.

• 1:33:57Patrick Bet-David?

  63, 25, 140. Tom, what are your thoughts on this? Specifically what Jamie Dimon said and the frustration with AI?

• 1:34:04Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, guess what? What Jamie Dimon is talking about, you have to compete to win. And so if you're going to win, you have to control the narrative. And this shows that Americans are fed up with the increase in the energy prices. And they're pointing it out to our data centers and data centers run AI. So AI gets this negative feeling because, one, they think it's taking jobs. Two, they think it's a reason that you have to build more data centers. Data centers are increasing my electricity costs. My electricity costs are killing me, especially if you don't live in San Diego. You live in someplace where you have to run electricity all year, like Minnesota, you know, and places where, you know, you gotta, you gotta run all of your, um, your, your heating equipment and AC in Dallas.

• 1:34:47Tom Ellsworth?

  And so people get upset and that's what's going on. Now you gotta win. You know, the, the other side of this is, um, uh, at the beginning of 26, uh, Trump did the voluntary rate payer pledge, I think it was called. And where that the data centers would voluntarily agree that they would partner with local electrical utilities and they would absorb or be part of building efficient, there it is, 2026 rate payer protection pledge. I was right. So Jamie Dimon says you gotta compete. Trump gave people an opportunity. This was voluntary. It says, you build your data center and then say, look, by the way,

• 1:35:29Tom Ellsworth?

  to avoid local electricity spikes, I'm going to be putting in permits for micro nukes, uh, sixth generation, fifth generation things, so I can power the data center. And any excess power, I'll put out to the grid. And so, you know, you do it that way, you have it. But this is, they've lost the narrative and Jamie Dimon's right. You have to compete to get people to stay. And AI and the electric industry have lost the narrative. And now 40% of their attempt to start projects are being, um, defeated by people. And what we need, you know what Trump could do this summer? Let's take this from a voluntary rate payer pledge,

• 1:36:12Tom Ellsworth?

  which was a good thing that he put forward in March, to let's make it have teeth. Let's make it real. Let's make it that, that we could legislate that says, hey, if Pat and Tom want to open a paint company and we're going to make an innovative new paint, we would have to get permits and permission from the EPA for whatever it is we're making. Well, because they say, we don't want you guys, whatever is in your paint, getting into groundwater, getting this, that and the other. We don't care who you are. We're going to regulate what you're doing because it's a chemical. Well, if you go from voluntary rate payer pledge to something that was, you know, firm, now to build the data center, it becomes a very simple matter. Hey, we're building the data center here, but don't worry

• 1:36:54Tom Ellsworth?

  about electrical costs because I'm going to get a permit for, you know, a micronuke, or I'm going to participate with the lower, you know, ECOAT in Texas, or whatever it is. And I'm going to participate with them and I'm going to get the electricity, you know, resources built that we need. And so your, the price of your electricity is not going to go up. What people forget is AI is only one part of the problem, is that the increase in demand for electricity has been coming for seven years in America because of EVs. It used to be at night, we would give our power a break because at night, all we powered was maybe air conditioning in hotter climates and everything else was turned

• 1:37:35Tom Ellsworth?

  off. Well, now there are so many EVs, like in California, that at night, the grid doesn't get a rest because your EV is in your garage or in the parking space at your apartment, plugged in. And so, you know, people think of EVs as green. They are up to a point until you follow that extension cord all the way back to the power plant and say, what's it burning to make the, you know, like in West Virginia, is an EV technically worse because it's all coal power plants?

• 1:38:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Mmm. Colin?

• 1:38:07Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, the AI one's tough because I think the other thing that a lot of consumers look at is they're worried they're all going to lose their jobs from AI in the long run. So I think there's a, you know, again, going back to the, you've lost the narrative. So far, you know, the labor market's interesting because the, so far, what we've seen from companies is we've seen a slowdown in hiring, but we have not seen anything along the lines of like mass firings from AI. And so, you know, the, the narrative around the labor market and AI has been very scary and I don't think that- It's necessarily been accurate. Is that coming?

• 1:38:45Tom Ellsworth?

  Um, God, I don't know. I have no idea how the whole AI thing is going to play out. I think I think AI gets really interesting when actually when the robotics catches up with the actual software. Um, that's when potentially, you know, when you see a, when you see a robot navigating a construction site, you know, actually nailing, you know, doing some framing and stuff, that's when you wake up and probably say, oh, we're all, we're all really screwed now. Um, but until then, um, you know, the, the impact has not materialized here. So, yeah, they've lost the narrative. I'm, I don't know. I, I think the AI war is a war that you just, you can't lose this one technologically. And so my view is that,

• 1:39:24Tom Ellsworth?

  God, going back to the government spending, if the government should be investing in anything, it should be this space. It should be the energy grid. It should be, you know, uh, getting out of the way of, you know, a lot of the, the innovation that's going on in this space, allowing the innovation in things like fusion and fission and, um, alternative energies to really flourish and, and grow in a way where you allow the competitive forces to, to ultimately dictate a winner here. And so, I don't know. I kind of see both sides of the arguments here and I understand why households are, are increasingly concerned, but I also think that this is something that you can't just, you can't just look at it and be negative about because in the long run,

• 1:40:05Tom Ellsworth?

  I really think AI has the potential to have an enormously, enormously positive impact in just a huge multiplier effect on the, on the US economy in the long run.

• 1:40:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Brandon.

• 1:40:17Speaker 03

  Yeah. So, I mean, isn't it amazing that the government spent $200 billion on EV initiatives and they didn't think to, um, beef up the amount of energy that the country produces. But I mean, that's a typical thing. We know they haven't done a lot of nukes, but I think it's a good thing.

• 1:40:31Patrick Bet-David?

  You know, about nuclear power.

• 1:40:32Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:40:32Patrick Bet-David?

  When you're saying.

• 1:40:32Speaker 03

  Right. Yeah. Could be misleading. But, uh, no, I think a good amount of worry is healthy. I mean, Jamie, Jamie Dimon's not actually worried. I think he's just worried about number two, the banking one, which I think would be awesome if he got some competition because the bank has been a cartel that's blocked everybody out for too long of a time. So that would be a nice one. But now the average person, I think the average person should be worried because a lot of. Jobs will go away, a lot of skills will become irrelevant, but um, I mean, I think you should be worried. I'm like, I, you know, convince myself every day that I don't hit a certain number in terms of like income or revenue that I, you know, I'm gonna be eviscerated by the circumstances of the world. So I think you should operate under that belief if you're not exactly where you want to be. Like he says, like, worry is a bad thing.

• 1:41:10Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, no, listen, I, I, it's important to pay attention to it. Mark Cuban said something about AI as well. Yesterday, I think he tweeted this couple of days ago. American billionaire Mark Cuban warns startup CEOs, you are in deep shit if it doesn't make sense for you to ask your AI models questions about. And here's what it is. Every entrepreneur that knows how to use AI is trying to find out ways to build AI native companies that completely displace incumbents. For the incumbents, it is the innovator's AI dilemma. If the startups get traction and they can't buy them, the CEOs will face multiple huge dilemmas. Number one, do they fear, do they tear down their companies and reinvent them as native AI? Rob, if you can lift it up a little bit, how do they explain it to public shareholders? Number two.

• 1:41:56Patrick Bet-David?

  You will know AI is having a huge impact on public companies when there are two types of lawsuits. Shareholders that sue company for tearing down the company and crushing the stock price, or number two, shareholders that sued the company for not tearing down the company and crushing the stock price. Lose, lose. I think most CEOs don't come close to understanding AI in enough detail to even begin to consider these decisions. Hint, asking your AI models the best paths from where you are now to being an AI native version that can achieve the same economics has to be one of your initial steps. If asking your models questions doesn't make sense to you, you are in deep shit. Tom?

• 1:42:33Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, if you go back to the top of the tweet, I think I know what he's talking about. The, yep, it's the innovator's AI dilemma. The innovator's dilemma was a book written by Clayton Christensen. What Clayton Christensen said was that the innovator's dilemma is that, you know, a well-managed company can run headlong into like a disruptive technology, the internet, whatever it is, e-commerce. And that those things initially may be, if you run

• 1:43:02Tom Ellsworth?

  To it as an innovator, Pat, like you're a CEO and you're an innovator and you say, hey, we have to be doing something on this. And initially, maybe it doesn't go so well. Then you go, ah, you know, maybe it's not what it's cracked, maybe e-commerce not what it's cracked up to be. Security wasn't there. Some of our people complained that wasn't a human. You know, the orders, we couldn't track them as well. Ah, this e-commerce isn't what it's cracked up to be. And then you kind of dismiss it. That's a dilemma. Then you come back later and go, wait a minute, I just got my butt kicked by companies that made e-commerce work. And it's a whole different channel of distribution for them now. Well, I think what Mark Cuban is talking about is Clayton Christensen. And he's talking about that if you think right now, because you tried to use it and it didn't result in massive cost savings.

• 1:43:47Tom Ellsworth?

  You are facing and you should be asking yourself about tearing down and going back. And I think that's what he's talking about. And I think he's making a really good point. That if you think you don't see enough benefit now, if you're not asking yourself about tearing it down and back. Then you could be out in the cold when some company does.

• 1:44:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Colin.

• 1:44:07Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, I mean, God, if you're running, especially a big company, you, you cannot afford to turn your back on this technology. I mean, here's the thing, I think that um, I've called AI a really disruptive disaggregator. And what I mean by that is that AI is decentralizing the economy in a way that we are probably never going to experience. Because what it's doing is it's empowering your average person to actually do the work of a relatively large corporation now. You can have a small team of people who, if they're adept at using AI, they can operate like a really big team.

• 1:44:50Tom Ellsworth?

  I mean, I'll use my business as a great example where last year I was planning to hire multiple CFPs and probably a tech person. And all of a sudden I start getting really adept at AI and I start realizing, holy cow, I can write software. The, the, you know, if I have a financial planning question now, maybe I know 80% of the right things to actually tackle. But that last 20% made my answer wrong. I know the answer to that last 20% now, where maybe I'm not a CFP, but I'm as dangerous as a CFP now. Because I know I'm experienced enough to operate like a CFP and I know the right question. Questions to ask to get me to that hundred percent and I can prompt an AI to get me to the right place and give a client the right answer.

• 1:45:34Tom Ellsworth?

  And so I'm suddenly able to operate as a multi-person financial planning team where you look at, especially entities like, gosh, law firms or big consulting firms. I think that it's interesting that Mark points out shareholders. I don't think the owners are the people who are at risk here. The owners are the people who this is all going to be accretive to in the long run. They're going to be the beneficiaries of this because the profits ultimately will flow to them. It's the workers. The, you know, you think of the structure of something like a law firm where you've got, you know, say 50 partners and, you know, 200 associates there. What does a law firm want to do? A law firm wants those associates just bill, bill, bill, bill, bill.

• 1:46:13Tom Ellsworth?

  The problem is now you've got incumbents that can come in that are, let's say, a five-person law firm with five partners and a 20-person associate team. That law firm all of a sudden has the capability to be as efficient as the big law firm. And what's going to happen there? It's competition. That big firm can no longer charge the huge rates that they wanted to. Their associates can't just keep billing at 250 bucks an hour. And all of a sudden, the, the smaller firm has pricing power. What's going to happen? Prices come down, competition wins. The big firms have to get disaggregated because the small firms are more competitive.

• 1:46:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Is CFP still what it was back in the days? Like I know you used to be at Merrill before you had a half a billion dollars of money under management back in the days when you were at Merrill. It was a big deal when you were a CFP. I just remember the guy's a certified financial planner. Oh my God, you'd put on your, when I was at Morgan Stanley Dean, I'm like, that guy's a certified financial planner. I wish I could become one. Does it still carry a big?

• 1:47:09Tom Ellsworth?

  You know, I, it'll be interesting to see how that materializes. I, I mean, I would argue that it's in the, especially in the scope of AI. It's probably one of the more valuable certifications you can have because something like a, like a CFA, actually, all the guys that work at investment banks, their jobs have, you know, maybe not become, you know, replaceable with AI. But that's a, that's a workload that AI can do very, very well. The interesting thing about being a CFP is that. Being a CFP is still, it's a person-to-person business. You're working in a very personalized, you know, human-to-human interaction that I actually think industries like that potentially, you know, if you deal with people, you shake people's hands every day,

• 1:47:52Tom Ellsworth?

  that's something that's going to become more valuable in the AI world because that's something that people are going to demand more of. They're going to want more of the face-to-face in a world where they get that.

• 1:48:02Patrick Bet-David?

  I agree. I think team humans, long-term, AI is going to go like this and then they're going to come back and say who still has influence over people? Those are the people we need to go and find. Brandon?

• 1:48:11Speaker 03

  Well, a massive opportunity here for anybody who's worried about losing a job. If you become masterful at knowing how to use and implement AI, like I just sent her up a report. On average, 90 to 95% of companies who are trying to use AI to do something for their business and find no ROI on it. So meaning they don't know how to use or implement it. So there's a huge gap right now in like wanting to use AI for a business and not knowing what to do with it once you implement it. So, you know, that's, I think that's a huge blue ocean for a lot of people if they know what to do with AI but don't know what to do with a job or career or future.

• 1:48:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me go to the next one. You were talking about some people that are worried about their jobs in the future. Lowe's is investing $250 million to train plumbers, carpenters and electricians as its CEO says skilled trades are critical to the future. So the CEO is a, is a stand-up guy, total stud of a guy. Let me get to this real quick so I can read the story to you. So for decades, young people were told to go to college with white-collar jobs and like coding cast as the future, but as AI disrupts that career path, skilled trades are emerging as a more resilient route to stable, well-paying jobs and Lowe's is betting heavily on the future. The Home Improvement John exclusive told Fortune that its foundation has been investing $250 million over the next decade

• 1:49:26Patrick Bet-David?

  to help 250,000 skilled trade workers in a field like plumbing, carpentry and electrical work. We're a company that believes strongly in the future of AI, but in a world where administrative and analytical occupations are going to be increasingly dominated with the acceleration of AI, we think the skilled trade initiative is going to be even more important here in the near future. Ellison.

• 1:49:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Told Fortune Magazine, AI, he noted, has clear limits. It can write code, draft emails, analyze spreadsheets, but it cannot show up to fix what's broken or build a physical infrastructure such as data centers that powers the future digital economy. As powerful as AI will become, AI cannot climb a ladder to change the batter in your smoke detector. And Ellison said, it can't change your furnace filter. It can't clean your dryer vent. It can't repair a hole on your roof. And the man's got a point. Marvin Ellison, if you want to pull it up, Rob. Marvin Ellison, the CEO of Lowe's, right here. Great family guy, came from a very good family. His mom and dad, incredible family. His brother, both very successful. He's been there for quite some time, I believe.

• 1:50:32Patrick Bet-David?

  He's been there for eight years now as a CEO. Tom, your thoughts on the strategy with what Lowe's is doing?

• 1:50:36Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, first of all, I think Marvin Ellison is getting it right. Remember in 2024, Lowe's is one of the companies that stepped up and said, we're rolling back on this DEI stuff. And they had two parallel groups, if I'm remembering the article correctly. And one was a DEI group and one was the regular HR group. And he said, we're rolling this back and let's just put HR back into one group. And so he did that and he got a lot of thumbs up for that from what I think is the right side of life. And so now he's come back and he's making a point here. And I think the point that he's making is that, look, people are going to need an electrician. An electrician is going to buy stuff at Lowe's to come do a job at your house. If we want to sell more stuff

• 1:51:20Tom Ellsworth?

  and Americans are going to need, you know, another, you know, they build a room under their house. They're going to need an electrician to come. They're going to need this, that and the other, or whatever it is they're doing. We want them to buy all the stuff from Lowe's, but there is an influencer in the middle called the electrician who's actually going to be buying it. Because you and me aren't going to say, hey, buy this many conduit, this many light switch, this many there. No, we're going to say, put a ceiling fan in the top of my second bedroom, put a switch on the wall, right? Well, what he's saying, Pat, is that people need to be trained to do that. And so this creates jobs for Americans. This creates opportunity for young people. And what it does, it now makes a connection with Lowe's. Lowe's is where you come not only to buy the ceiling fan and all the other stuff you need, but the person that's going to install it.

• 1:52:06Tom Ellsworth?

  Lowe's and Home Depot for a long time have had contractors. You could say, hey, who's is pushing this even more and doubling down on it? And I think it's a great program.

• 1:52:17Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, I agree. I mean, it is interesting to me. I worry a little bit. I have a four and a six year old daughter, so I think about the future a lot and what I want them to do. What would I want them to study and train for? And there is a part of me that worries is, is this narrative similar to the learn to code narrative? Because I can't see a world in the future where, you know, robots aren't going to be able to do plumbing. They're not going to be able to crawl into AC vents. But a lot of these jobs, I worry robots are going to be very, very good at these jobs. A lot of these jobs. Including plumbing and? Not plumbing, not, I mean, things that require, like, that's one of the things that robotics is actually very bad at is, you know,

• 1:53:00Tom Ellsworth?

  a robot can't crawl under a sink and actually, you know, feel the water pressure. So things like that are very, very hard to actually build out. But can a robot, will a robot in 20 years be able to frame an entire house? I would be shocked if it can't. So things like that, there's a lot of construction jobs, there's a lot of manual labor jobs that I actually think robotics is going to be able to destroy. So I don't know, my daughters aren't going to be construction workers anyway, but for me, I still, if I'm guiding my daughter into an industry, I want my daughter to probably be the architect on a construction site. I don't want her to be the plumber or, you know, some other job. And that still is, it brings in the whole college debate.

• 1:53:45Tom Ellsworth?

  I actually think college is going to get more valuable in the future because I think that learning, learning, first of all, to be, to be creative and having, navigating lots of different types of subject matter and skills. But more importantly, I think college is probably going to become more valuable in the future because you got to learn how to be a person in college. That's really the primary benefit of college, in my opinion, is that you go there to learn how to be a young adult, to be responsible, to start building some of the skills that'll actually make you valuable in the workforce. And so.

• 1:54:15Speaker 05

  To me, learning how to be a person, learning how to actually interact with other people, is going to be one of the most valuable skills in a world where we're increasingly just staring at our phones and not interacting with each other. This episode is brought to you by Indeed. You're ready to level up your business, but the pressure to find the right person to make that happen is intense. Indeed sponsored jobs can help carry the load. It boosts your job post to help it reach quality talent fast. Cut through the chaos with Indeed sponsored jobs. Get a $75 sponsored job credit at indeed.com/podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring now? Then this is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs.

• 1:54:57Speaker 06

  Now, more than ever, we need someone on our side. But Rob Whitman? Whitman's votes drove up costs, cut Medicaid, and risked 350,000 Virginians' healthcare to pay for tax breaks for himself and his donors. He's not on our side. Shannon Taylor will fight corruption, cut taxes, and bring down costs. This November, vote for Shannon Taylor. She's for us. Paid for by HMP, the House Majority PAC dot com. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks, or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usaa.com/bundle. Restrictions apply.

• 1:55:42Speaker 03

  Yeah, when it comes to the trades, there's gonna be an imminent massive shortage within them. While the robots might replace these people, if that does happen, they will be the last ones to replace them. It's gonna be the white collar jobs before it's the blue collar jobs. So I think there is a resurgence of people entering these things. I mean, even at SLS, we were giving out the badges for different industries so people could network with that. And the first one to run out, we kept running out the contractor badges and having to go get more. So there's a huge amount of people that are flooding that industry. And I think that's like a kind of a matter of like national stability. Like if you suddenly have like, you don't have enough plumbers for a society, like they're showing like, once these boomers retire, there's gonna be like one plumber for every...

• 1:56:25Speaker 03

  There was some crazy number, like there's gonna be like one plumber for like every 30 people versus every 15 people once this group retires. So I think it's a good thing that people are flooding into that. I think it's gonna be the last one that gets replaced by the robots.

• 1:56:38Patrick Bet-David?

  But eventually it will.

• 1:56:39Speaker 03

  Probably. I mean, I've been surprised by the things the robots have been able to do.

• 1:56:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Quality of robots is just gonna get better.

• 1:56:44Speaker 03

  They're cutting hair and stuff now. I didn't expect that to happen.

• 1:56:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Quality is gonna get better. Let me get to this last story here and we'll wrap up. No mediocre worker is safe. The bar for keeping your job just went up. This is a business insider story. With hiring budget constraints, some companies are finding a different way to bring in talent, replacing workers with better ones. There's just no appetite for mediocrity anymore, said Brent Orsuga, founder of the supply chain and logistics recruiting firm Pinnacle Growth Advisors. Over the past year, he's seen many of his clients quietly replace employees rather than grow headcount. Everyone was looking at what they have and being like, "I want the best of the best," Orsuga said. While upgrading isn't new, Orsuga said that 2025 was the biggest year

• 1:57:28Patrick Bet-David?

  he's seen in the trend in more than two decades in the recruiting world. He calls it "bullseye hiring." It's like every seat matters. So I've gotta hit a bullseye and get the right person in the right seat. Hiring has slowed in the US recently due to economic uncertainty, cutting costs, and I adoption. In February, the hiring rate fell to 3.1%, a modern low match only by pandemic and early recovery from the Great Recession. Last year, roughly 11% of CEOs were replaced across 1,500 of the largest public companies, according to the analysis by executive recruiting from Spencer Stuart. That's the highest turnover rate since 2010, when the US was emerging from the Great Recession. Wow.

• 1:58:08Tom Ellsworth?

  You know, it's very interesting is we've gone through so many waves in just six years, haven't we? We go through this wave during COVID where people walk across the street for more money, come back to try to hold you hostage and say, "Well, I'm gonna permanently work from home and I'm gonna do this, that, and the other." Even in 2000 and early 23, when we were allowed to go back outside without a mask. So yesterday, and I'm not gonna say who, but you know what I'm talking about, Pat. Yesterday, Bet David Consulting was working with a client and I have a privilege to be working on that account. And one of the things we talked about, they were talking about a four-person department and do we need to hire more people? And one of the things we processed, well, first make sure the four you have are performing

• 1:58:53Tom Ellsworth?

  at the right level. And they had one star and then the other three, there is a difference in performance. So the first thing they said, instead of hiring, you know what they said, Pat? Let's replace the low one so that the three that are performing at a nice optimal level, what we need, are performing, and then the star will create a partnership with one of the others, see if they can bring it up. So they want to take the same four people and see if they can get more productivity out of it. This was sales, and they see it as, let's replace one. That's what the article is saying. A mediocre person on that four-person sales squad is going to be replaced, and then they're going to think about growth

• 1:59:36Tom Ellsworth?

  to forward. And by the way, they looked at it and they talked about burnout. They cared about the people. They didn't want the four people to be like pushed way hard and burn them out. They just want nominal performance. And so this is a case study we just saw yesterday of a real company saying, hey, you know what? Economy could be tough. Before I hire another, let's make sure the ones I have are all performing really well. Yep. Yeah, I mean, there's just, there's no excuse for being stupid anymore. I mean, we've all got a super intelligence in our pocket now. I laugh when I see people post really, really silly things on Twitter now because I think to myself, I say, you could have fact-checked this in 10 seconds. Instead, you're getting dunked on by 10,000 people

• 2:00:19Tom Ellsworth?

  because you didn't take, you know, 10 seconds to just fact-check it on GPT or Grok or any of the other dozens of these. So I think people, people are losing patience with the bad takes, the, the, just the inability to do rudimentary, basic research in basic job functions. Brandon?

• 2:00:42Speaker 03

  Yeah, there, I mean, there's nothing bad. I don't think about like being paranoid about, you should always be paranoid about, you know, the notion of losing your job and falling into the abyss and, you know, being replaced by AI and not being able to find another one. Like, what's, what's the downside of thinking that way? Like, and, you know, you said you can control like how smart you are. Now, there's no excuse for being stupid. Maybe it's genetics, but there's no excuse for no effort. That's the thing. Like, if somebody genuinely just doesn't put effort forward, like you could control how much effort you put forward every day and like it makes you slightly less mediocre if you're giving everything you have every day. I mean, that's the thing. It's like, it was a great job market in 2021. There's these little spurts when the employee has the upper hand because there's a lot of job offerings and postings.

• 2:01:23Speaker 03

  But then, you know, it does swing back to where the employer has the upper hand and, you know, you get these unexpected market crashes. You get unexpected technology. So, yeah, I would definitely be.

• 2:01:34Tom Ellsworth?

  That's the thing. Everyone can't be super smart.

• 2:01:37Speaker 03

  No.

• 2:01:37Tom Ellsworth?

  But everybody can try.

• 2:01:39Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 2:01:39Tom Ellsworth?

  Everybody can put in a maximum effort. And that's the thing that I think is frustrating when you start to see, you know, deficient work is that it's just like, you're not even trying here.

• 2:01:48Speaker 03

  Right.

• 2:01:49Tom Ellsworth?

  Obviously.

• 2:01:49Patrick Bet-David?

  This is the worst time to be lazy. This is the worst time to not be a student. This is the worst time to be casual. This is the worst time to be addicted to Netflix and video games and all of that. That's not paying your bills. Because you will be destroyed. It's the worst time to be casual. Worst time. Nasty times are coming for you. Nasty. You think this is a bad season? Nasty times are coming to those that are casual. Nasty times are coming to those that are sitting around, not reading a book, not learning a new skill set, not choosing to recreate themselves. Absolutely nasty. Now, let me give the flip side.

• 2:02:27Patrick Bet-David?

  If you're somebody that's confident, that's going to go out there and work on your leaks and work on certain areas that you have, and you're going to go and say, I'm going to learn two or three skill sets. You're about to have the greatest season of your life, the next three, five, 10, 15 years. Because the disparity of getting exposed for being casual, it's always exposed it, but it's never been that big of a disparity. It's about to be like this. Where everyone's going to know, you sat around and did nothing with all the stuff that was available to you. Yes. What a waste of 10 years. What a waste of five years. It negatively impacted your kids' lives versus what a great strategic move you made.

• 2:03:10Patrick Bet-David?

  You went and read books. You went and attended business events. You went and found ways to learn a new skill set. And because of that, your kids are impacted by it. Your grandkids are impacted by it. Your spouse, your family, yourself, your older future version of you is going to be impacted by it. And it's amazing how quickly you see the results if you work on it. Like, you know, one of my kids plays soccer. And I watch him when he plays, okay? He's the youngest on every team because he's on the back end. So he's the youngest. You know how the age gap is August, September? He falls on the other side.

• 2:03:42Tom Ellsworth?

  So he was the last birthday, so youngest in his class.

• 2:03:45Patrick Bet-David?

  So now they're changing it this year for him, which he's gonna be the oldest. For the first time, because they're changing the sport, uh, age stuff in, in, uh, in, uh, Florida, which is gonna benefit him, but he's always the smallest guy on the team, always. So I see a speed, very fast. Shot, strong. He's got a strong foot. You know, tough, strong, all of that. Footwork, okay, not there yet. So we started obsessing over footwork. And, you know, Jennifer and I were talking, it's like, look, you gotta learn spacing so you can be open. And I said, no, no, this is not how life works, babe. She says, what do you mean? I said, let me tell you. Let me tell you why players are open and why players are not.

• 2:04:29Patrick Bet-David?

  She said, why? I said, when I played basketball, I was a horrible shooter. Do you know what I never did? What? Never make eye contact with the point guard. Why? Because if you make eye contact with the point guard, what's the point guard gonna do?

• 2:04:44Tom Ellsworth?

  Pass him.

• 2:04:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Give you the ball? Now, the, now rebounding? Guess what? I was the best guy that could rebound. And I would pass it to you, but don't give me the ball to shoot the ball. The moment I got a little bit better in shooting, guess what would happen? You're asking for the ball. I said, if Dylan trusts footwork more, he's gonna be asking and demanding for the ball. And I'm telling this to Dylan, and he's like, sitting there saying, maybe that makes sense. I said, when you're not good with footwork, you don't wanna lose the ball, because you're afraid I'm gonna lose the ball if it comes to me. You're telling that to yourself.

• 2:05:16Tom Ellsworth?

  Right.

• 2:05:17Patrick Bet-David?

  All of a sudden, the obsession on footwork, we've taken it to a whole different level with him. He went to a tryout a couple of days ago, one of the best teams over here. You know how many goals he scored in the game? Everybody scored one. The other second best guy scored two. He scored five goals.

• 2:05:30Tom Ellsworth?

  Hmm.

• 2:05:31Patrick Bet-David?

  And you know why it was? All because of footwork. So for all of us that are watching this, you know, that's an example for my son. But what is it for you? Is it communication? Guy sent me a minute, uh, yesterday, saying I had an embarrassing PR moment. I was interviewed by somebody, it was so embarrassing that I don't ever wanna experience something like this again, because it negatively impacted my, my life and my business. Guess what that guy needs to learn? What happened?

• 2:05:57Tom Ellsworth?

  No, I'm like, I'm like, I'm grimacing for the CEO.

• 2:06:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, yeah, yeah. It's horrible. And I'm like, well, guess what? That's something you can learn on how to do. It could be sales. It could be negotiation. It could be AI. It could be Tom spending all the time in Claude. It could be your own investment. Some of you guys maybe didn't make a lot of money the last 12 months, 18 months. They're like, dude, I don't know a lot about money. Well, guess what? Go order this book and learn. Go order this book, Your Perfect Portfolio by Colin Roach. Go order this book and get better. He has a 10 philosophy on how to get better with your own money. If you're not better with money management today, the information is out there. It's not like you don't have access to it. The information is out there, Rob. Let's put the link below for people to go out there and order that. But I think this is the worst time to be lazy, casual, sitting on the sidelines, not recreating yourself.

• 2:06:43Patrick Bet-David?

  And it's the greatest time for people that are willing to get in the mix. Anyways, having said that, Colin, thank you for coming out. This was great hearing your perspective. You sound very fair, reasonable, and you're willing to entertain opinions from all sides. Gang, everybody that's out there that's watching this, we're doing it again when, Rob? I think we got, oh, tomorrow we got Sheriff Grady Judd. Am I saying it correctly? In the right order? Yes, sir. One of my favorite guys in the world. Last time we had him, one of the clips got 29 million views. The stuff we talked about yesterday, he's a fan favorite here. Love the guy. Right afterwards, we had a 20, 30 minute conversation together and we've been texting all week together. Phenomenal guy. That goes on live tomorrow and then we'll have home to him again on Friday. God bless everybody. Take care. Bye bye, bye bye.

• 2:07:28Speaker 06

  Now, more than ever, we need someone on our side. But Rob Whitman? Whitman's votes drove up costs, cut Medicaid, and risked 350,000 Virginians' health care to pay for tax breaks for himself and his donors. He's not on our side. Shannon Taylor will fight corruption, cut taxes, and bring down costs. This November, vote for Shannon Taylor. She's for us. Paid for by HMP, the House Majority PAC dot com. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks, or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at USAA dot com slash bundle. Restrictions apply.