DeepSeek's $6M Training Headline Was Fake Marketing

In episode #2910, Eric Siu and Neil Patel discuss the launch of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI model, and the misleading headlines surrounding its training costs. They explore the competitive landscape of AI, particularly in relation to China's advancements, and discuss the implications for job markets and business efficiency. Don’t forget to help us grow by subscribing and liking on YouTube! Check out more of Eric’s content (Leveling UP YT) and Neil’s videos (Neil Patel YT) TIME-STAMPED SHOW NOTES: (00:00) DeepSeek's Controversial Launch and Misleading Headlines (02:58) The Reality of AI Training Costs and Competition (05:48) China's AI Advancements and Global Competition (08:49) The Impact of AI on Job Markets and Business Efficiency (11:57) Consumer Behavior Shifts in the Age of AI (15:02) Navigating AI Tools and Data Privacy Concerns (17:51) Founders' Perspectives on AI and Business Strategy (21:56) That’s it for today! Don’t forget to rate, review, and subscribe! Go to https://www.marketingschool.io to learn more! Leave Some Feedback: What should we talk about next? Did you enjoy this episode? If so, please leave a short review. Connect with Us: Single Grain << Eric’s ad agency NP Digital << Neil’s ad agency X @neilpatel X @ericosiu

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:39Speaker 01

  I saw rumors and on X, there was people breaking down charts of where Nvidia's revenues coming from. And they're showing one of the largest buckets being Singapore. And they're like, why would Singapore need all of these chips? And I don't know if this is true or not, but on X, people are claiming the Singapore revenue was, in theory, people from China buying the chips, but they're skirting around regulations.

• 1:04Speaker 00

  Yeah. Oh, wow. Neil didn't bring his iPad today. So the thing with DeepSeek is, just so everyone that doesn't know yet, DeepSeek is this model that came out actually Q4 2024. So it's this hedge fund that launched this in competition with like OpenAI, for example, or GEMI. It's an LLM.

• 1:23Speaker 01

  Chinese hedge fund.

• 1:23Speaker 00

  Chinese hedge fund. So it's a Chinese, it's a China-based company. And the headline was, oh, wow, this company spent $6 million and it's basically at par with OpenAI's O1 model, which is their best one right now. Actually, O3 just came out today. The mini-launch just came out today, but O1 is their top-tier one. You're paying $200 a month for it. It's expensive, right? The cool thing is, this one's way cheaper. It's either, it's free for people to use. It's open source, which is very big. And you're getting like a 93% discount when you're using it.

• 1:50Speaker 01

  It's roughly 1/45 the cost.

• 1:52Speaker 00

  Yes. And the beauty of this, so even this week, I was talking to my CTO, I was like, oh, I think what we're gonna do is we're just gonna buy a lot of these Nvidia computers that are coming out. And we're just gonna stack them up and run DeepSeek locally. It's gonna be way cheaper, which we're still gonna do, by the way. But the thing is, the $6 million headline, you remember Jin Yang from Silicon Valley?

• 2:10Speaker 01

  No.

• 2:10Speaker 00

  Oh, you don't watch Silicon Valley. So, okay, so it's funny. This guy Jin Yang, he's like, the show Silicon Valley, you know that, right?

• 2:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, but when you first asked, I thought you meant, do I know this person from actually the Valley?

• 2:21Speaker 00

  Oh, no, no.

• 2:22Speaker 01

  But I didn't watch the show.

• 2:22Speaker 00

  Okay, so Silicon Valley, it's like a funny show created from the creator of Beavis and Butthead. And there's this guy, it was all about Silicon Valley, like tech, right? And there's this guy Jin Yang, who would always, he's a Chinese dude, and he would always steal technology, do all these things, right? And it's like, okay, yeah, you guys spend billions of dollars training your model like OpenAI or whatever. He's like, I just spent $6 million, right? Which is nothing, peanuts compared to that, right? The reality is, Brad Gersner from Alterna Capital and David Sacks actually said this. There's a guy Dylan Patel, which is Neil Patel's cousin, not really. But there's a new report by a leading semiconductor analyst. If you guys really want to nerd out on this stuff, Dylan Patel is the guy to go to, okay? So DeepSeek actually spent over $1 billion on its compute cluster.

• 3:06Speaker 00

  The widely reported $6 million number is highly misleading as it includes CapEx and R and D, which might be a part of that Singapore piece, right? At best, this describes the cost of the final training run only. And we're not going to go into too much detail here, and it's funny, I read some of the replies, and I can see that's because I'm Chinese, guys, like, oh, so yeah, basically the Chinese lied again, right? I read a lot of replies, like, kind of tongue in cheek. But basically, what it says here-

• 3:32Speaker 01

  Let's go back a little bit. You're saying they spent a billion dollars just on the training, not to create it all from scratch?

• 3:38Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 3:38Speaker 01

  Just a billion dollars training the model?

• 3:40Speaker 00

  And you know what happened, right? You know what they trained off of, right?

• 3:42Speaker 01

  ChatGPT.

• 3:43Speaker 00

  Yeah, they trained off of OpenAI's model. And so like, there are some innovations that they came up with here. And there's a guy that founded Groq, and I listened to this podcast. He's the CEO of Groq, G R O Q, not G R O K.

• 3:57Speaker 01

  Oh, not that Elon Musk.

• 3:58Speaker 00

  But it's still an AI company. So he worked on TensorFlow and he worked on like at Google, right? He's like, look, man, like, at the end of the day, open source always wins. You look at Linux and things like that, like, open source will win. And so what it means now is that it's not really the frontier models you should be looking at, the L L Ms. People were making fun of, oh, like, rappers, right? You know, you're GPT rappers or whatever. What this implies for marketers now is that it is, it does come back to what kind of apps are you going to build? What kind of agents are you going to build that are actually fully autonomous, right? It's not based on, um, you know, the latest LLM anymore, right? And so they, he thinks, he, he's been in the space for a long time. He's like, look, man, I think the competition, like, the frontier LLMs, those things, like, they're going to get commoditized. It's what apps are you going to build?

• 4:43Speaker 00

  So I think that affects us as business people and marketers.

• 4:47Speaker 01

  I would say around six months ago, I was on a panel and

• 4:51Speaker 00

  You do panels?

• 4:52Speaker 01

  Uh huh.

• 4:52Speaker 00

  I hate doing panels.

• 4:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, it was virtual panel.

• 4:54Speaker 00

  Oh, okay, that's fine.

• 4:55Speaker 01

  So it was easy. And one of the people on the panels was a venture capitalist. I forgot which fund, but it was a massive fund. And they were talking about AI and how it's disrupting everything. And her tone or her pitch or what she kept saying throughout the whole panel was China's kicking our butt in AI. You haven't even seen it yet. And she kept saying that and I had no clue what she was talking about.

• 5:23Speaker 00

  Did you believe it?

• 5:24Speaker 01

  Uh, I believe that China was doing some crazy stuff in a good way, right? In which they're really building some cool tech. But I never saw anything from China. I don't speak Mandarin. Uh, I've never been to China. So I was just like, all right, I believe that's such a big company that's investing so much in tech. Why wouldn't they be doing something? But they're just like, you haven't even seen what they're doing. She's just like, a lot of what they're doing is better than what we have in the US.

• 5:49Speaker 00

  Yep.

• 5:50Speaker 01

  I have no way to agree with her or disagree with her because I'm blind, right? I haven't seen anything that she's talking about. I'm assuming this is part of the stuff or some of the things that she's talking about. She's just seen quite a bit more. And AI, I think you're going to start seeing more competition, not just from China, but a lot of other countries are going to continually develop more and more when it comes to AI. But I agree with you. And if you look at Nvidia's stock, it tanked. A lot of people believed they created DeepSeek for $6 million. The whole company for $6 million, just to clarify, not just the training of this model. And people are saying the training costs much more.

• 6:31Speaker 01

  People are assuming they spent $6 million, including the hardware, structuring the company, everything, hiring the employees, only $6 million bucks. Which most people know that you can't do a lot of this, these kind of things for $6 million, right? Um, and I think a lot of that caused Nvidia to also crash. Cause I would get a call from my dad, he's like, "Oh, did you see someone copied OpenAI for $6 million?"

• 6:56Speaker 00

  Yeah, that headline cost $600 billion in market cap.

• 7:00Speaker 01

  His net worth went down $20 billion that day.

• 7:03Speaker 00

  Jensen?

• 7:03Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 7:04Speaker 00

  Yeah, but he doesn't care. Like, here's the thing.

• 7:06Speaker 01

  I'm pretty sure everyone cares when you lose $20 billion in a day. I don't have $20 billion?

• 7:11Speaker 00

  I think he knows he'll be fine, because the thing is like, what, what I've learned from all this, just reading a lot this week is that, um, you've heard of Jevon's Paradox, right?

• 7:21Speaker 01

  No.

• 7:21Speaker 00

  Okay, so Jevon's Paradox is where, once the cost of something comes down, it actually gets used a lot more. So electricity back in the day, right? Or like LED lights, for example. Back in the day, everyone was using candles and stuff, then became light bulbs, but those were inefficient, and then LED lights. So the thing is, people are like, "Oh my god, Nvidia's screwed," right? It's not true. Actually, we're gonna still need more chips, because the cost is coming down so much. And people like you and me, let's say we're starting from scratch, we're gonna be able to build a lot more.

• 7:46Speaker 01

  It's not Nvidia screwed. Have you looked at their financials?

• 7:49Speaker 00

  I don't think they're-

• 7:49Speaker 01

  Their quarterly earnings?

• 7:50Speaker 00

  Well, what do you mean it's, it's not about them being screwed? Cause other people, the headlines are, people think they're screwed, right?

• 7:55Speaker 01

  Or let me rephrase, it's not them being screwed from the concept that there's not gonna be more usage. Look at their profit margins on Nvidia. For their revenue to profit, it's unheard of.

• 8:07Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 8:07Speaker 01

  It's one of the highest. Um, it's, let me actually just pull up their stock symbol. Nvidia-

• 8:14Speaker 00

  So as you pull it up?

• 8:15Speaker 01

  Stock. Okay, check this out. So when you look at the last quarter, they did $35 billion in revenue and $22 billion in EBITDA.

• 8:25Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 8:25Speaker 01

  Right? Like, just to put that in perspective, at that scale, they're doing 62% profit to the bottom line. You know, assuming they don't have debt payments, but even if you just look at like net income, they're still at $19 billion on $35 billion in revenue.

• 8:43Speaker 01

  It's not that people are, you know, I don't think most people are concerned that, oh, AI usage isn't going to go up. I think most people who are logical see that AI usage is going to go up because it's going to be integrated in a lot of parts of the world. But for Nvidia specifically, I don't see that organization having 60-plus percent margins on their company in the long run. You're going to have competition, costs are going to go down, and people may not need as many chips to actually complete the task as things get more efficient. Yes, they'll still need chips, but as time goes on, there's going to be more competition and pricing is going to go down, just like everything else.

• 9:23Speaker 00

  I think it's nuanced. I think we saw the drop because people panicked because it's like, oh, my God, it's over, right? And so I will agree that the long-term, like, competition's going to happen. When people see profit margins like that, there's going to be more profit.

• 9:33Speaker 01

  Too high.

• 9:34Speaker 00

  Yeah. It will come down. The question is, I think they can hold for a little longer.

• 9:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 9:38Speaker 00

  Because they're still pretty far ahead right now. But I think, again, people look at that. It breeds competition. People want to make more money, too, right?

• 9:46Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 9:46Speaker 00

  So it will happen. Here's the final thing I'll say around this. And I'll just add on to the Chinese piece, because I've talked to a handful of Chinese people. My barber, he has like a bunch of people that live in China, right? And he's like, it's not even close right now. We're talking about competition. Actually, my mom said this, right? She said this. She's like, you know, sometimes freedom is really good. Like, she loves being in America, right? But she's like, sometimes freedom isn't, sometimes it's better to just have someone dictate to you. And I asked my barber about this. I was like, so what do you think about that? Do you think that's a good thing? He's like, you know, largely, families in China, they're okay with that because their lives are better, right? Because the way their kids are educated right now, five or six years old, they know STEM stuff, they know how to code, and they're working really, really hard, right? And so it's forced into the culture. And if you look at,

• 10:31Speaker 00

  if you look at China, you haven't been to Japan before, right? Have you been to Japan?

• 10:34Speaker 01

  I have.

• 10:34Speaker 00

  Okay. So Japan's super clean, right?

• 10:36Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 10:36Speaker 00

  It's pretty close.

• 10:37Speaker 01

  And affordable.

• 10:38Speaker 00

  It's pretty close to, yeah, and very affordable. It's pretty close to clean, as clean as Japan, and pretty affordable. And don't get me wrong, I still prefer to live in the US, but I think from the way they're doing a lot of these things, look at it this way. The final thing I'll say is this. Semi Analysis also mentions that costs could fall by another 5X by the end of the year. Okay, basically, the key innovation they came up with is called multi-head Latin Attention, so MLA, which significantly reduces inference costs by cutting KV, I don't know what that is, KV cache usage by 93.3%. The report suggests that any improvements DeepSeek makes will likely be adopted by Western AI labs almost immediately. So they did come up with something pretty good, and I love this competition because it makes things cheaper for us.

• 11:20Speaker 01

  Yes, and then I like how it's 145th the cost.

• 11:23Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 11:24Speaker 01

  But going back to China, do you, did you watch the TikTok US president or CEO, whatever his title is, testified to Congress and they were questioning him about TikTok in the US for children versus TikTok in China?

• 11:38Speaker 00

  No.

• 11:39Speaker 01

  And he's just like, you know, let's say it was a Senator, she's like, Senator, no, it's not the same, you know? In China, we show them educational material that can help them learn and all this comes up. In the US, it's pure junk and entertainment.

• 11:53Speaker 00

  Well, because here's the thing.

• 11:54Speaker 01

  I'm paraphrasing. He did not say it's pure junk and entertainment, but he pretty much implied it's junk and entertainment.

• 11:59Speaker 00

  And people might think, oh, my God, they're doing that on purpose. I don't think they're doing it on purpose. I think what happens is in China, they force it that way, right?

• 12:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's not his choice. It's the government forces them to.

• 12:07Speaker 00

  But in America, when you have the freedom, oh, this is what you get when you have full freedom, right? This is, you tend to want to consume a ton of junk, right? And I'm not, I'm just saying this is human nature.

• 12:17Speaker 01

  Well, it's the algorithms. If the algorithms show that kids love all the educational material, the algorithms would only show educational material because it would cause more usage and hence make them more money.

• 12:26Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 12:27Speaker 01

  That's not the case, though.

• 12:28Speaker 00

  No.

• 12:28Speaker 01

  Little kids don't want educational material shown on TikTok.

• 12:31Speaker 00

  And so, like you as a parent, like sometimes you have to figure out the content you want your kids to see, right? And so they're just moderating that on like a governmental level.

• 12:39Speaker 01

  Yeah, the solution I have is you just don't show kids TikTok or Instagram.

• 12:43Speaker 00

  They don't use TikTok?

• 12:45Speaker 01

  Do my what?

• 12:46Speaker 00

  Do your kids use your TikTok? No?

• 12:47Speaker 01

  No, neither. But every once in a while at nighttime, they will ask me, hey, can you show me some Instagram videos? Their version of an Instagram video is either a dog singing, uh, Apaté? I think it's called Apaté.

• 13:01Speaker 00

  Is that some Indian thing?

• 13:02Speaker 01

  No, the Bruno Mars song with that rose girl.

• 13:06Speaker 00

  I don't know.

• 13:07Speaker 01

  Or APT or something like that?

• 13:08Speaker 00

  I'm not hip enough.

• 13:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, me neither. It's just to, you know, a popular song that everyone was singing probably three, four months ago. Or they'll ask me to see things like, let's say if it's during Christmas, they want to see how Christmas lights look like for houses that just go all out. Cause you can see that kind of stuff on Instagram, right?

• 13:28Speaker 00

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• 14:04Speaker 01

  But going back to DeepSeek, everyone's talking about DeepSeek versus ChatGPT. And I don't really care who is the winner or loser. Because at the end of the day, all this competition-

• 14:18Speaker 00

  We're promiscuous. We're LLM promiscuous.

• 14:21Speaker 01

  At the end of the day, all this is going to do is cause all of them to get better and compete, which benefits us, the end consumer. Hence, governments like the US government doesn't like monopolies, right? Cause it just benefits the consumer to have all these corporations competing against each other. I'm not saying, or I'm not agreeing or disagreeing that saying, hey, if a US person uses DeepSeek, that's really bad for them because it's Chinese-controlled. You know, I'm not trying to get into politics or anything like that. Just more so the overall technology. If they develop crazy cool technology, people here are going to try to copy, learn from, etc. But I think the bigger thing that people aren't really paying attention to that you and I see as marketers is AI. And a lot of these platforms are changing consumer behavior.

• 15:04Speaker 01

  Like when you go to search years ago, it used to be, and when I say years ago, I'm only talking about around two years ago, people would just type something in and you would have to sift through links. Now we're getting used to conversations and typing in conversations and having these full-on conversations with the machine. And asking a question, giving us an output and us telling, you know, the machine how we want it modified. And a lot of people, if you actually look, because we've done studies where we track what people are doing with their authorization, of course. And you're seeing people talk to these L L Ms with manners, like, hey, can you please do this?

• 15:44Speaker 00

  I still do please, because I don't, when they take over, I don't want to be enslaved.

• 15:49Speaker 01

  And what I think is going to happen is all this stuff that's happening right now, whether it's deep sea, chat G P T, etc. It's training us to talk to machines and robots like they're humans and interact with them on a deeper and eventually more emotional level, even though we're not doing that right now. But it's taking us down that path, and I don't think most people are seeing it.

• 16:11Speaker 00

  Yeah, eventually it'll be like the sci fi movies where you're talking to a robot full on and it responds you could. I mean, even the Google Dev Studio thing, when you're talking to it, it responds real time. There's very little latency. And we've talked about hum dot A I before. I think it's going to get pretty nuts. The one thing that I think is practical for everyone that we can move to the next topic is how you can actually use DeepSeek without worrying about the C C P. So what I mean by that is, I don't know if you noticed, Neil, but when you want something to be deleted and it's on a Chinese server, it doesn't actually get deleted. It just says delete next to it. So, so if the government wants to pull that, if the C C P wants to pull that, they can pull it. And so the way around this is if you use perplexity and you use R one in their DeepSeek is the, their R one is like the, their reasoning model.

• 16:54Speaker 00

  That will get around it, or you can run it locally, which is what we're talking about, right? Like, now I'm just like, how many, how many of these computers can we buy and just run this all locally? So that's how you can do it without having to worry about, you know, your data being stolen or anything like that. So.

• 17:08Speaker 01

  I don't personally worry about that too much, but when I use DeepSeek, I don't push in sensitive information or anything I would want leaked. But I assume that when you ask it anything, it's pretty much there and it's stored forever.

• 17:21Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's stored forever. I mean, it just says delete next to it. It's just the text delete, but it's not deleted. Yeah. Okay, so we kind of talked about, we, I was texting you last night about this. So I was at some like Chinese New Year Founder's Dinner thing yesterday. And I want to talk about what founders are really saying about AI behind the scenes. So we know a mutual friend. He has like a AI working group at his company and they're strictly just focused on AI. And you know, let's say they they spend like, they save $200,000 on cost to recoup that cost. Maybe they're spending $10,000 to recoup that cost, I mean, using AI, right? To regain the efficiencies. That's one example. Do you want to elaborate on our mutual friend?

• 18:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, so I think what we're seeing founders do, whether they want to admit it or not. A lot of them are creating these AI committees. And some of these AI committees are responsible for figuring out efficiencies in an organization that have the mandate, whether that's right or wrong, to eliminate jobs and automate it through AI. And the big thing that I think we'll start seeing isn't companies just improve in efficiency. Yes, I think there's a lot of money to be made there. But to go one level deeper, where I really see things getting ridiculous. And it could be looked at as a good way or a bad way.

• 18:48Speaker 01

  Is I know a lot of companies right now who have figured out how to eliminate a lot of jobs in certain industries and maintain the same quality of work. And they're just going on an M and A spree. And they're buying up corporations that haven't implemented this technology. So if someone's doing, call it four million in revenue and they're doing 800 grand in profit. They're, a lot of these guys are like, okay, you want five, six times your company? Here you go. They even give it to them, you know, payment plan, maybe over a year or two years. And instantly they're rolling out AI. It may take them six months to a year to fully get it up. And their margins have just went from 20% to, hey, we're now doing 2 million in profit

• 19:34Speaker 01

  on $4 million. And you now have a company that's just worth so much more because you're running at 50% margins instead of 20%. But yet you bought that company at a 20% margin and to You guys the math on that if a company is doing eight hundred grand right in profit. And you end up buying them for six times. What does that end up being forty eight, four point eight million dollars? Now they're buying, you know, they end up getting the profit to two million dollars and they're paid pretty much less than three X for that business.

• 20:10Speaker 00

  Yep, it's an arbitrage and you know, as much as I think this is the thing, right? This is business and it's tough, like there's human beings involved here. But if you look at the administration, what they're offering the government employees, eight months severance.

• 20:25Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 20:26Speaker 00

  Pretty good, right? I'm not saying everyone should offer eight months. I think eight months is very generous. If you can't offer that, go for it. But I think this will be a more popular play more and more, as long as people can get over the fact that, hey, like tough decisions are going to be, have to be made.

• 20:39Speaker 01

  But here's a kicker. If you go to a traditional bank, assuming you're established business with profit, a bank will give you three times, two to three times, three and a half times profit on a deal that you're buying and they'll amortize it over five, six, seven years, 10 years. Usually I've seen five, seven, and you can do 10 years as well. So when you think about a 10 year payment, you're buying a business for three X. The bank's telling you to pay it back in, let's call it 10 years, even with interest. It's not a hard arbitrage.

• 21:09Speaker 00

  Massive arbitrage. Here's the thing. So I was talking to a guy yesterday and so let's say they're doing thirty, forty million, forty mil, thirty, forty million a year in annual recurring revenue or ARR. And I'm like, so how's business going right now? He's like, it's pretty steady. I'm like, but he's like, but he looks at me, he's like, so what are you doing with AI right now? Right? And then I'm like, what are you doing with AI? And he's like, oh, I'm like all in on deep seek right now. And then what about, have you heard of O one operators? I'm like, of course I have, right? So he's using operators, agents. And then I was like, so what's your, what's been your team's reaction to it? And they're like, oh, it's so dumb right now. It's so dumb right now. And then literally we both blurted out at the same time. We're like, that is like missing the point. The point is it's as dumb as will ever be right now. And if you don't see what's coming, like there's only two options. You get better and you get paid more, or you don't get better and you get replaced by the first person.

• 21:54Speaker 00

  And, and I've been kind of sounding the alarm for quite a while. To my team now when I do these and it's like there's a bit of teaching in there. There's a bit of like sounding the alarm and people still don't get it yet. And I don't think people want to get it. And so, so then he, then we're looking at each other like, so he's like, dude, so what do you think is going to happen in business in the next couple of years? And then I was like, you know, well, Chris Saka said, we're kind of all F'd, right? And then, so, okay, we, that conversation happened and I sat next to a guy who's a, he runs a quant fund, like an AI quant fund. I was like, how does that work? He's like, he just focuses on AI, really smart guy, like super sharp. And I was like, so where do you think things are going? He's like, all I know is right now is the time to make money because we have no idea that the world's going to be completely unrecognizable in the next decade or so, right?

• 22:39Speaker 00

  So the reason we say these things to you guys is like, like we, we have an AI working group. You have AI working group and we're trying to find efficiencies everywhere. But at the same time, like we also want to educate and protect people's careers too. And so this is what's happening behind the scenes because you, you got to think about the founders incentives, you got to also like you, most of you that are watching, maybe you're working somewhere, you got to think about your incentives too, right? And you got to work towards whatever your incentives are, so.

• 23:04Speaker 01

  No, totally.

• 23:05Speaker 00

  All right, that's it for today, guys. Please don't forget to rate, review, subscribe, go to marketing school.io slash agency to learn more about the agency owners association to grow faster and we'll see you tomorrow.