Trump’s Fake Ceasefire, Aging Reversed in a Lab Using AI, Kamala running (again) in 2028| The Tom Bilyeu Show

Welcome to Impact Theory! Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine that neither side appears to have agreed to, and he also suspended sanctions on Russian diesel through April 2027. We break down why critics say it funds Putin’s war, Europe’s own reliance on Russian energy, and whether it’s really about prices before the midterms. Next, the U. S. and Iran keep hitting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz during shipping’s worst stretch since the war began, and Iran is now threatening undersea cables and data centers. Then a Houthi missile strike hits a Saudi airport, and we look at Saudi Arabia’s shrinking economy and the questions around MBS. We dig into how AI can now decompile and rebuild software, what that means for companies like Adobe, and why mathematicians are feeling the disruption. Then a major anti-aging breakthrough rewinds an 80-year-old’s cells in the lab, and the debate over whether AI should be controlled or taught its own morals. We wrap with Kamala Harris’s possible third presidential run, the midterms, a viral video imagining a world without men or women, Long Beach’s coastal damage, and the new game Hood Warfare. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=Live%20Masterclass&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=evergreen Follow Me: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to get started with your business today: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Pipedrive: Get more leads and grow your business. Go to https://www.pipedrive.com/impact and get started with a 30-day free trial. Netsuite: For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, go to https://NetSuite.ai/Theory https://netsuite.ai/Theory. Butcherbox: Go to https://ButcherBox.com/IMPACT https://butcherbox.com/IMPACT to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• 2:07Speaker 00

  Trump's emergency energy deal with Putin has people freaking out. And his joint Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire has a ridiculous wrinkle in it that may kill it right from the jump. Travelers in Saudi Arabia got a pretty big surprise when over the weekend, they were basically blown up at the airport. The footage is insane. You guys have to see this. The reality in the straight-up for news is still worse than people realize. Both the US and Iran are out there just blowing ships up at will. The AI code-cracking situation is far more problematic than people understand. It's got me asking, is the software industry just dead? And as a software maker, hey-o. The AI Health Alliance is insane.

• 2:51Speaker 00

  If you guys have wanted to be excited about something in AI, this is it. People do not understand how fast the field of biology is progressing now. Recent breakthroughs in anti-aging are absolutely shocking. And speaking of shocking, wine moms across America rejoice as The Wall Street Journal reports Mona Harris is coming back, man. She's making a third run at the presidency. And then the best news of all, everybody, we got Drew back. Welcome, Drew. Hey-o. Excited to have him back. We'll get more into that in a minute, but first, we've got to talk about it. Is it all fake? Why are people freaking out over Trump's emergency energy deal with Putin? Because they are, man.

• 3:31Speaker 00

  On October 11th, without warning, or apparently even cooperation from Russia and Ukraine, Trump decided to announce an energy ceasefire between the two countries. Effective immediately, he said, "We've got an energy ceasefire." And he also said, "Both parties have agreed." The problem? They had not. Zelensky himself said that that was just straight-up news to him. He had no idea it was happening, but he loved the idea. And Ukraine would in fact stop hitting Russian refineries if Russia would just stop hitting Ukraine's energy grid. Now, what did Putin say? Nothing. The Kremlin was completely silent. Then, just a few moments later, Russia hit a power plant in Kharkiv.

• 4:13Speaker 00

  Literally, I want you to imagine like a thought bubble above Trump's head or a dialogue bubble. It's still saying, "We've got an energy ceasefire. Both parties have agreed." They're getting struck. Clearly, there is not any sort of consensus or understanding between the parties that are supposed to be involved that this is actually going on. Now pundits have been saying, "Listen, maybe it could still, people seem to want it, so possibly this is going to happen." But while that's all in the background, you've also got Trump making the emergency deal with Putin to remove sanctions from their diesel, which has people freaking out. Most people just are not loving this. So the question becomes, why is Trump doing this?

• 4:53Speaker 00

  If this is politically unpopular, there's supposedly going to be a bipartisan bill to stop Trump from being able to purchase any of the Russian diesel that he has removed the sanctions on and therefore theoretically lowering the cost. You've got Zelensky also saying, "What are we even doing? Russia makes such a small portion of the global impact on energy prices." He said it was 2.2%. I haven't had a chance to fact-check that to find out how close that is. It's certainly a much bigger deal in Europe than that. So I'd be a little surprised if that take was exactly accurate. But when you boil this down to what Trump's motives are, they're pretty straightforward. He wants diesel prices down before the November midterms.

• 5:36Speaker 00

  He has created a massive dumpster fire in the Middle East, which has obviously kept prices high. Now, prices right now are sort of middling in terms of the high end, but they're still at the high end. I think at last check, we were at like 102? So obviously, we've got a fire, literally, continuing to burn in the Middle East and figuratively, as the prices are still up. And Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have obviously added to that. On October 9th, after a call with Putin, Trump said Russia would ship millions of tons of diesel onto the world market. We'll see what kind of impact that has. Now Treasury immediately suspended the sanctions at Trump's request on Russian diesel.

• 6:20Speaker 00

  And the weird part is that they're doing it all the way through April of 2027. Typically, a move like this, you would see maybe 30 days, 60 days? But doing it all the way out through the winter, I think, is the thing to keep your eyes on. Now, I don't know if part of Trump's calculus is he's thinking about what's going to happen to Europe through the winter, that they're going to be sucking in a ton of energy no matter what, and that he obviously wants to make sure that, well, this is me. I really want to make sure that Europe has all the energy that they need to survive a winter. Whether Trump is thinking about that or not, I don't know. He may just be thinking about prices. But Trump said lower prices for Americans is his greatest priority.

• 7:03Speaker 00

  And he didn't mention, obviously, the ongoing war that he started that is causing things to stay elevated. Now, three weeks earlier, he signed a sweeping Russia sanctions law aimed at Moscow's energy revenue. So this is like him going against himself, which I suppose at this point should never be too surprising. He's going to play it by the moment based on what is ultimately good for his political career. Forgive me for being cynical, but that is certainly my read on the situation. And when Ukraine hit a Russian oil hub after the diesel deal, Trump got pissed and said it was time for Ukraine to get a new president. Now, Zelensky has said, "Hey, fine. If you want a new president, no worries.

• 7:47Speaker 00

  I'm happy to accommodate. However, you're going to have to give us a 60-day ceasefire. You need to give us two months to plan for the election." Now, does he really mean it? Is he actually looking for an opportunity for Ukraine to hold elections? Or is he asking for something that he knows is never going to happen? That is a far bigger question. But he has put on the table, "If you give us a full 60-day ceasefire, then we'll run the elections." So if that's really what the US wants, and it has any leverage with Russia, which I think is basically none, but let's pretend for a second, then they could run the elections there, or at least they'd be calling his bluff. Now, the international community has obviously been reacting to what Trump is doing.

• 8:31Speaker 00

  Boris Johnson, who's maybe a questionable figure in all of this, he called the move "sickening" and said the White House is forcing American drivers to basically "bankroll Putin's slaughter." That's a quote. The EU's top diplomat warned it gives Moscow more money for the war. And that, I think, is something that everybody's got to be looking at. If Zelensky is even directionally correct that whatever relief that you give in terms of sanctions on Russian diesel is going to have a very minimal impact on the global price of diesel. Then this really has a very lopsided impact in terms of it will bring pretty meaningful revenues to Russia, which as you would imagine, they're going to put

• 9:15Speaker 00

  right into the war machine. I don't think anybody reasonable could expect them to do anything different with that money right now. It's obviously the biggest concern that they've got going. So just like freeing up money in Iran is simply going to allow them to continue to fund the war effort, fund their proxies, doing the same in Russia is going to have a similar impact. So I certainly understand why this would be the least unpopular for Zelensky and for people in Ukraine that are trying to have a similar economic effect on Russia that we're trying to have on Iran. So here you have Russia, Ukraine war, getting caught in the middle of Trump trying to get energy costs down for the midterms. And so the real question becomes, is this going to be, is this going to have a meaningful

• 10:00Speaker 00

  impact? Now, there are plenty of people chirping on X that are saying, what are you even talking about? He's not doing this at all to affect energy prices. This is really just about corruption, and he's doing backdoor deals with Russia. I looked into it to see if I could find any credible reporting on that. There's no credible reporting on that yet. So we'll see if there's just no there there, and that's just people being overly cynical, or if more reports start coming out that have some credibility behind them. But right now, that seems to be a nothing burger. Now, in terms of taking Boris Johnson's comments head on, Europe is still buying Russian energy and a lot of it. So them saying that the US buying Russian

• 10:41Speaker 00

  oil to keep energy costs down is somehow disgusting is a little wacky, given that they're in a situation where they've been buying a ton of it. In the first half of 2026, the EU bought a record-setting 9.89 million tons of liquid natural gas from Russia's Yammo plant. That's up 18% from just a year earlier. It's worth roughly 6 billion euro. And then you throw in Hungary and Slovakia, and those guys still get Russian crude just direct via pipeline under an EU exemption, which allows them to bring in basically as much oil as they want. So the LNG ban isn't going to kick in anytime soon. People are

• 11:24Speaker 00

  saying maybe in January of 27. We'll see. All right. So now also Boris Johnson has a bit of a weird history in all of this. If you guys have heard the rumors before, people are saying that, in fact, it was a guy that led Ukraine's delegation back in 2022 in the Istanbul talks. He said that after they got home, Johnson came to Kiev and told them not to sign the deal and to just fight. And many people have said that basically Johnson is essentially the one who single-handedly tanked the peace talks that could have ended this war in the earliest stages. Johnson himself calls that Russian propaganda. And when you really look at it, there's not a lot of credible people that's

• 12:09Speaker 00

  saying that that's how it played out. People were saying that Ukraine wasn't going to sign it regardless. But nonetheless, that continues to be something in the background. So we'll see how all of this plays out. But man, does this continue to get messier. And this is the, there's a great quote, I'm going to paraphrase it, I don't remember who said it, but the only law of history is the law of unintended consequences, meaning things are never going to go the way that you expect. Global economies, global dynamics are far too complicated to get very simple solutions to this stuff. So yeah, Trump going into Iran was, from a win the midterms perspective, was certainly an ill-advised move. From the

• 12:50Speaker 00

  momentary cost of energy, obviously ill-advised. From a long-term safety perspective, maybe there's something there. From a long-term energy cost, maybe there's something there. But there's a lot of question marks around that. And unfortunately, we're all going to have to watch this play out in real time. But there is not any increased stability in the Middle East, that's for sure. And the war in, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to rage on. So.

• 13:19Speaker 03

  And there's reports that Ukraine just hit a Russian bot farm. So bots and Russian activity on the internet has been significantly reduced.

• 13:27Speaker 00

  Yeah, I tried to look into this. So it, okay, the claim goes like this, that Ukraine strikes basically the Russian version of a Google data center, and all of a sudden, the traffic across the internet as a whole takes a huge dive. So the claim is that basically Russia has way more bot farms than people realize. As I was digging into it, it does not seem to match the headlines. So I'll need a little bit more research time to figure out like how real that is. But it is a juicy headline to think that, oh my God, like the internet, dead internet theory, it's already real, it's all just Russian bots, everything out there, that the vast majority of what's happening is all just fake news,

• 14:11Speaker 00

  it's bots arguing with bots on bots. I don't know to what extent that that is true, but you can see in the internet traffic data that blowing up those data centers has a very meaningful impact on the overall web traffic. Now, is it just people can't access the internet? Is it that if you looked at it, it's, yeah, a lot of traffic is, bots has a very obviously conspiratorial connotation. But if it's just, yeah, there's a lot of traffic now that's AI doing a lot of different things. High-speed trading, you know, being one of the many things that AI is used, using internet traffic for. Is it just disruption

• 14:52Speaker 00

  of normal things? Or is it actually, you think you're arguing with Sally from Poughkeepsie, but you're really arguing with a Russian bot? That's certainly possible. And I would imagine that there's just a whole lot of that that goes on all over the world. I remind myself constantly that whatever we're seeing Russia do, China do, Israel do, the US is likely doing as well. And for all of us humans, the real thing to clock there is how manipulatable are we? That this is such a fruitful thing that people use this much compute to do? And by the way, I think about this a lot. We build a lot of stuff above ground, man. It becomes real easy to hit when people get mad. And so I'll be interested to see how

• 15:36Speaker 00

  much of this starts getting hardened, either by sending it into space or by digging down. And Iran has shown that digging down can be a very useful strategy.

• 15:48Speaker 03

  We've seen it happen with the Iran war. We won the Iran war 30 times, you know, that we joke around about it. But I think this is the first time that Trump has said we have a ceasefire, it's a done deal, all parties agreed.

• 15:59Speaker 00

  It actually isn't the first time he said that. So when I was doing the research, it was like, oh, he said something like this back in September 18th, I think. I mean, it was like really quite recent that he was like, oh, ceasefire, we're good. And then, nope.

• 16:12Speaker 03

  Both parties were like, yeah, nah, didn't know about it.

• 16:14Speaker 00

  Yeah. So I don't, I, I would be very surprised if he's making this up whole cloth. But it's very possible that he's talking to Putin and he says like, hey, I want to get a ceasefire. And Putin's like, yeah, I'm cool with that. Meaning directionally, yeah, it's kind of a neat idea. And then he takes that and announces it as if like it's already there and already agreed upon. But it, and it, look, it's possible that Zelensky is just lying through his teeth. But that seems far more likely that Trump is trying to use the announcement as a way to get both sides to agree and to make whoever continues to strike look like the asshole. Now, I'll be interested to see what Trump starts saying

• 16:55Speaker 00

  about Putin, given that if Zelensky's timeline is even remotely accurate, and there seems to be quite a bit of reporting on it, that after Trump announces the ceasefire, Russia hits Ukraine. So you can't imagine that Ukraine is just going to be like, all right, it's fine. They're going to hit back. And so this is how you get these things that fall apart minutes after they're announced, is there's so much bad blood, there's so much momentum that it's really hard to get everybody to unwind in any sort of meaningful way. And I think back to that video, we, we talked about it, but this isn't sticking in people's minds. There was footage on whatever the Russian or Ukrainian equivalent of a Ring

• 17:38Speaker 00

  cam, where you imagine just like a normal suburban neighborhood, and two Ukrainian factions collide, mad as hell about god knows what towards each other, and they just start shooting each other in the middle of this suburban neighborhood. It was wild seeing all these people in the, no, this is, if this is more, then it's another one. So when you're in a war situation and you've got people killing everybody all over the place, there's so much animosity, so much fury, that it's, there's a reason Quince sells cashmere for $60, and it isn't the cashmere. It's real 100% Mongolian cashmere. It's the same stuff

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• 20:09Speaker 00

  All too easy to be like, no, no, no, fuck these kids. Like, I'm doing one more strike and then I'll chill. But that strike then causes the other person to strike back. Now you've got new beef. And so it just becomes the Hatfields and the McCoys, which, God, that reference is probably really old now. But yeah, it's wild. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere.

• 20:33Speaker 00

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

• 20:36Speaker 03

  In general, though, it seems like nothing materialistically has changed. It seems we're in the same spot when it comes to Russia-Ukraine.

• 20:43Speaker 00

  Or escalating, to be quite honest. So, um, once Ukraine was able to start reaching deep into Russia, that's when you started seeing Trump really turn on Zelensky. Now, admittedly, he's done this before. So after the White House blow up, he was doing a similar thing. This guy just doesn't know how to act. Uh, he doesn't know how to get a deal done. He's not a dealmaker. You gotta get rid of him. But then he went quiet on that for a while. Uh, and now he's sort of back to that new rhetoric of like, you've got to get somebody in here that's going to accept something. Now, Zelensky himself has said, and I'm not sure if I pulled, you should check to see if I pulled the link. Um, but Zelensky himself has said that, um, Ukraine is not going to, I think he said the exact word, humiliate.

• 21:28Speaker 00

  Ukraine is not going to humiliate itself, meaning like, we're not going to bow down. We are a normal country that's fighting for its sovereignty. Russia invaded us, which somehow keeps getting lost in all of this. Russia invaded us. We are standing up for our sovereignty. We are a sovereign nation. And why are you guys weird about us fighting back? Um, not to fractal too hard, but that always brings to me the parallel between the way that people respond to Israel and Palestine versus the way that they respond to Russia-Ukraine. It's like, if you see, um, you had Palestine strike Israel,

• 22:07Speaker 00

  and then Israel goes ham on everybody, and then people look at that and go, well, yeah, obviously they're going to, they being Hamas, Palestine, they're going to like hit back. Like you, don't be surprised if they run an October 7th again. Like this is crazy. And so how people map who's the aggressor, uh, what narrative does it fit? Like, it's really interesting to watch how people try to like parse these two different things. And it all comes down to base assumptions. Do you believe that, um, Ukraine is a sovereign nation? How far can, should a sovereign nation go to defend itself? Is there a point at which you go, well, bro, there's too many deaths. Just give up. You've got to let go of some of your territory?

• 22:49Speaker 00

  Or is it, no, we fight to the last man? And so, um, I, I think everybody knows my take is all practical all the time. Uh, and so if Ukraine is making an assessment and they're like, if we give here, they're just gonna then push again in a few years, especially if Trump is out of office and there's a far more, you know, laissez-faire approach to Russia. Um, or a far more antagonistic approach to NATO, um, that Russia then will feel the need to push even harder. So you can sort of map out how people are gonna think about this based on what their base assumptions are and what is driving that. And I think so much the conflict in, uh, between Israel and Palestine is racially coded,

• 23:34Speaker 00

  that people read that in a completely different oppressed oppressor narrative, that because it's like white on white violence between Russia and Ukraine, it just doesn't get the same valence. And so it's really interesting to see people, um, categorize this stuff. Very interesting.

• 23:51Speaker 03

  Yeah. It's, it's definitely something to keep up, cause this is now a war that's going into year four, I think. Um, so it's definitely not something that is going away. We can't ignore.

• 24:01Speaker 00

  I don't think I'm crazy. This is longer than World War I already? I'm pretty sure that's true.

• 24:06Speaker 03

  Wow.

• 24:06Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah. Fact check me on that, but I'm, I'm almost certain that's accurate. So when you start thinking about how history looks at World War I, and you realize how similar, it's true, right?

• 24:17Speaker 03

  Yes, yes.

• 24:18Speaker 00

  Yeah, that's wild.

• 24:19Speaker 03

  The Russia-Ukraine war is longer than World War I. Which is wild.

• 24:22Speaker 00

  Now, from a full scale total number of deaths, obviously, it's still smaller, but woo buddy, for those countries, uh, losing, I think we're north, we're well north of a million people dead. I'm certain that's true. I don't think we're.

• 24:37Speaker 03

  They're saying roughly 500,000.

• 24:40Speaker 00

  Full, full in?

• 24:41Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think that number, I thought that number was higher too. Yeah.

• 24:44Speaker 00

  Maybe I'm in, I know that says deaths and casualties. Interesting. Okay.

• 24:48Speaker 03

  With World War I, yeah, at nine to 11.

• 24:50Speaker 00

  God damn. That's crazy. Okay.

• 24:53Speaker 03

  Cool. But yeah, 1,569 days of this fighting has been going on in Russia and Ukraine. Um, okay. So right now it seems like we're a bit of a stalemate with that. Um, Saudi seems to be getting a lot of pressure in the region. Iran seems to be also closing the Strait of Hormuz. I don't know who's the responsible, but everybody's blowing up ships. So it seems the Middle East is still kind of also going through it right now. Let's start with Iran, cause I feel like that one's a bit more put together.

• 25:20Speaker 00

  It's fascinating how, in a very real way, people just get fatigued with thinking about this. And so you sort of go, well, I mean, blowing up a few ships a day, like, yeah, whatever. That's no big deal. Uh, whereas at the beginning of this, to hit as many ships as were hit over the weekend, it'd be like, what the fuck? Like, that'd be the biggest news ever. Uh, but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz really is worse than people think still. Both the US and Iran are sinking ships. It's like an easy way to explain it. Technically, they're not going to the bottom of the ocean. They are often just dismantling, uh, the tanker's ability to move. I don't know how much oil is leaking out into the Strait of Hormuz. I don't know if, uh, the way that,

• 26:03Speaker 00

  certainly the way the US is striking the ship is trying to hit the engine room. So it's possible that they're not actually leaking oil when they strike those ships. Uh, I think that the Iranian side is a little less capable of being, um, super precise, because they're often using the mines in the Strait of Hormuz. So thinking about the Strait of Hormuz as a war zone is definitely the right way. Uh, Iran and the US are both trying to take ships out to prove that like, they can really do some damage. And what's interesting, we're probably gonna have another choke point in all of this, which is, we're now getting more tankers through. Um, at last check, we were near pre-war levels, not quite exactly, but there's a lot of traffic that's going through. But we're starting to run in a shortage of actual tankers themselves.

• 26:48Speaker 00

  And the fact that the tankers are now being blown up certainly doesn't help. I think there's less than a thousand tankers, worldwide, uh, super tankers capable of carrying the amount of oil and fertilizer that we're normally talking about here through the strait. So every one of these that you take offline is meaningful. So when you have so few, and I don't know how long it takes to build a tanker, but it's gotta be measured in years, uh, not months. So when you look at it, tankers are getting hit in the Strait of Hormuz basically every day now. Reuters at last count had 12 attacks on oil, LNG and LPG carriers between September 28th and October 5th. Not exactly a long time. And that was the worst week for shipping since the war began back in February.

• 27:33Speaker 00

  So it's not like it's getting better. We're not seeing as many strikes on civilians, thank God. But in terms of oil, in terms of calming all of this down, uh, there's actually an argument to be made that is escalating from the energy perspective. So the UK's Maritime Security Agency has issued at least one warning every day this month, including one for 302, a A302,000 tonne super tanker that was set on fire on October 9th. So, yeah, pretty crazy. Uh, the ships are catching fire. They're losing power. They're just sort of drifting aimlessly. The crews are the ones getting battered by all of this. At least 12 seafarers have been injured, uh, on one tanker.

• 28:18Speaker 00

  It was called One Piece. It was hit on October 5th. So no one has been formally named as the attacker, but the IRGC obviously is claiming, uh, result, or claiming that they did some of these strikes. And it says that it's just gonna widen its target of ships. Anybody, I think they said, anybody that turns off their transponder is considered hostile, and so they'll go after them. So you've got Iran hitting them. You've got the US hitting them. Uh, and so, yeah, don't expect this to lighten up anytime soon. Now, so far, Trump has held to the fact that he doesn't plan to do strikes, um, until after the midterms, which is wild that you can just say that. It seems so blatant.

• 28:59Speaker 00

  Uh, but the fact is, most people are low information voters and they're not gonna pay attention to it. They're just gonna look at the cost of gas, uh, and say, am I happy? Am I sad? Uh, probably gas and groceries. So, yeah. Not good times.

• 29:12Speaker 03

  So it was three tankers in the last forty eight hours hitting Iranian mines under the water. Iran is now also directly threatening to strike the UAE and target some of their underwater internet cables. This is from the Moore's report. Can we throw this up, Brian? Iran is now threatening to directly strike the UAE and target undersea internet cables, data centers and AI facilities across the region if the US and Israel resume the war, warning the next conflict could extend far beyond military targets per press TV. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mozen Razi warned if another war breaks out, many cables, data centers, artificial intelligence facilities and other sites in the region will be destroyed and we will confront the enemy with a much broader and more extensive plan.

• 29:54Speaker 03

  He added that US assets in the UAE and around the Strait of Remus remain extremely valuable, but are not yet on the Iran's target list, claiming regional cables, data centers and AI facilities are worth more than $2 trillion. So, yeah, it can get worse before it gets better.

• 30:10Speaker 00

  Yeah. Another one. I mean, this, this is, yeah, it's wild. It's, we have built so much infrastructure that is mismatched with the type of weaponry that we have that you can just slowly start dismantling things that take years and years to build back up. Um, yeah, I mean, this is what Trump was talking about in his unhinged rhetoric about blowing them back to the Stone Age. It's like you really can take offline so much technology and it costs so much money and takes so much time to rebuild that stuff. And this is part of the thing that people put forward when they talk about forever wars and why it's so good for business. If you're a contractor that's going to go in there and help them rebuild, or you even just supply some of the things that they're going to need to rebuild,

• 30:55Speaker 00

  like China's got to be just sitting back going, oh, God, this is going to be so good for business in the next five to 10 years as these guys rebuild all of this high technology stuff. Every time a data center gets hit, they're like, yep, we're going to be supplying a lot of the goods that they're going to need for that. I'm sure there are plenty of US companies, same thing. You blow up a lot of chips, that's a lot of money. They've got Nvidia chips, Nvidia is like, well, this ain't so bad. And so there are a lot of people that even if they're not cheering for this because they have a soul, uh, they're still going to stand to make some money off of the rebuild. And so that whole idea of forever war, remember, is about essentially economically strip mining people,

• 31:37Speaker 00

  uh, where you go, okay, if you guys blow things up, then it's all going to be rebuilt. And so it's kind of like, um, they build into, I don't know, Apple, Apple's going to love this take, but, uh, they build planned obsolescence into their phones. So that as they upgrade the next phone and they make the operating system more, uh, battery hungry. It's like, well, if you've got the new device, then you won't notice. But if you've got an old device running the new software, all of a sudden your battery life goes down. I think, God, don't, uh, I could be wrong about this, but I think they had to pay fines because they were illegally, essentially eating your battery life on purpose to try to push you.

• 32:17Speaker 00

  So if you think of the forever war as like the kinetic bomb, uh, planned obsolescence, it's like not replacing your energy infrastructure fast enough for the global elites. Hey, we're just going to blow that shit up. It is so wild. And even if that isn't the thing that starts the war, it is the thing that gives people an incentive structure to see it continue. So I don't think there's any sort of one monolithic, um, move by a secret Kabbalah people. I think it's people just following incentives, but the incentives are there. That war ultimately is good for business. Um, because one, if you can just step in, like with Venezuela, if you can just step in

• 32:58Speaker 00

  and now get a friendly government that allows you deeper access to the oil, allows American companies in, for instance, um, you're in a great position there. And then if you're the contractor that gets the bid to rebuild all this stuff, it's, you're winning. So, yeah, war unfortunately creates an incentive structure that is gnarly.

• 33:20Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 33:21Speaker 00

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• 35:22Speaker 00

  Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.

• 35:25Speaker 03

  And then the last beat in the Middle East, we got to talk about Saudi Arabia because they had a hell of a weekend. There's a lot happening.

• 35:31Speaker 00

  Did you see this footage?

• 35:32Speaker 03

  I did not.

• 35:33Speaker 00

  Oh, my God. Are you going to be watching it for the first time?

• 35:35Speaker 03

  I'm watching it from the first time.

• 35:36Speaker 00

  Oh, yo, this is wild. So, um, yeah, pull up the, the footage. You guys, if you have access to your phone or your TV screen.

• 35:44Speaker 03

  Give me two seconds.

• 35:44Speaker 00

  Now would definitely be the time. But travelers in Saudi Arabia really got a gigantic surprise over the weekend when they were blown up at the airport. The footage is absolutely diabolical. Since July, the Houthis have turned Yemen's civil war into a direct war on Saudi Arabia. They declared a naval blockade on Saudi shipping, attacked Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and hit Aramco sites in Jizan and Yanbu. On October 6th and 7th, missiles and drones struck airports in Riyadh and Abba. Uh, Saudi authorities say three people were killed and 36 injured. I think those numbers though have gone up with the recent strike.

• 36:23Speaker 00

  I'm pretty sure 12 people were killed in the most recent bombing, um, of the airport in Saudi Arabia. It is absolutely crazy if you guys are watching this footage. Um, it is berserk. Imagine you're at the, this is footage of gates, man. You're like chilling in the airport, waiting for your, um, boarding time and all of a sudden a missile comes screaming through the waiting area, explodes. People are running, freaking out, people going through security, missile strike. I mean, that would be the wildest shit ever. And what's really crazy, I'm almost certain this is the airport that I went to when I went to Saudi Arabia. So that is wild.

• 37:06Speaker 00

  Like you feel, I mean, think about any major, like really the best airport you've ever been to in America. Okay, you feel nice and safe, insecure, stores, it's gorgeous. This is not like whatever image people have of the Middle East. If you're not thinking of something much nicer than American, uh, airports, you're way off. So they're absolutely gorgeous, super high-end and a missile comes screaming through the ceiling. Like, I just can't imagine how insane that would be. Uh, so, yeah, wild times for the, um, Saudi, uh, monarch. Like, yeah, I think that's the actual, uh, reality. So you've got.

• 37:51Speaker 00

  Rumors, I will say, from people that are not necessarily super credible, but you can understand why people would take what I'm about to say seriously, basically saying, listen, the House of Saud, which is Saudi Arabia, is a kingdom under the House of Saud. So MBS is the Crown Prince there now, but obviously he came to power, I forget how many years ago now, and people are saying, yo, if he's lucky, he's going to be able to escape with his life. If he's not so lucky, this guy's going to get beheaded for all of the things that are going wrong. Now, I would read that as a way, way, way exaggeration at this point, but directionally, they're expecting there to be an economic contraction

• 38:36Speaker 00

  in Saudi Arabia this year, I think more than 2%. So that certainly is going to be felt by the country. So we'll see, because the timing here is pretty brutal, with Iran choking off Hormuz, the Red Sea has become Saudi Arabia's escape hatch, but you have the drones that were launched from Iraq, that ended up knocking out their east-west pipeline. I think that's happened multiple times now, though it seemed like we were only getting satellite footage of the second hit. I don't know if people were actually reporting on it, so take that with a grain of salt. So this is going to be an economic squeeze on Saudi Arabia that could get pretty rough. European refiners were told that they were going to get zero Saudi crude in October. The kingdom's own finance ministry now expects the economy

• 39:18Speaker 00

  to shrink by over 3%, so 3.6% this year. So yeah, this is going to be a wild time for Saudi Arabia. That's obviously going to have massive impacts on the global economy. And then, if my analysis is right about why Trump was originally spurred to move on Iran in the first place, part of it being to make sure that he was able to secure the investments from Saudi Arabia and other GCC nations to invest in AI, that's going to put question marks over that. Now, we'll see if it's just a temporary pause, everything gets back on track, or if this becomes part of a multi-year trend where Saudi Arabia has to turn inward,

• 39:59Speaker 00

  rebuild, and spend their money basically exclusively in Saudi Arabia. That's unknown at this time. I think part of it's going to depend on how bad this gets, how widespread. Now Riyadh has asked Washington multiple times to help. We reported on this earlier. MBS had called Trump directly repeatedly in September, pushing for him to strike the Houthis. Trump has said no, so we'll see if he's going to get involved. He said, based on these most recent strikes, he hadn't looked closely enough at it yet, that he would need to look at it, but he would certainly look into it. And now, be a little surprised if it's going to be enough to push him over the edge, but you can understand that Saudi's got to do something if these strikes continue. And the behind-the-scenes rumors are that

• 40:42Speaker 00

  Saudi is running out of interceptor missiles, which means if they're already getting hit, how much worse is this going to get? So we're unfortunately going to find out.

• 40:51Speaker 03

  Let's jump into this video of Scott Ritter. He's a former UN weapons inspector.

• 40:55Speaker 00

  Okay, before we play this, though, I've got to give, and please, anybody fact-check me, because my Scott Ritter knowledge is just developing. He's a very mixed bag. I believe, and I certainly don't want to say something that is inaccurate, but if AI can be trusted, as I was using Claude to research him, I think he went to prison for inappropriate contact. I don't know if it was physical, or he's just reaching out to kids, but like, somebody fact-check me here.

• 41:25Speaker 03

  He's probably an Epstein class.

• 41:25Speaker 00

  Yes, I do believe that he has that, but please do fact-check me out. I want to at least see somebody else say that they're getting a similar answer. So that already, I guess technically it doesn't mean that his international analysis isn't accurate, but goddamn.

• 41:45Speaker 03

  His judgment might be.

• 41:46Speaker 00

  Yeah, does it make me go, hey, there could be a problem here? Now, this is somebody who I think is considered to be like a headline grabber. He overstates things, so take what he says with an absolute dump truck of salt. But with all of that, here we go.

• 42:06Speaker 06

  The demise of Mohammed bin Salman is inevitable.

• 42:09Speaker 00

  MBS.

• 42:10Speaker 06

  He's finished. If he's lucky, he'll be able to catch the last gold-plated 747 out of Riyadh and make his way to whatever London, you know, hideaway that he's built for himself, or to the United States. If he's not lucky, he will have a, his head will be removed from his shoulders via sword by somebody shouting "Al-Ahbar". But it's the end of the House of Saud. They, he made a strategic mistake in 2014 to try and earn his military spurs with a quick military victory over Ansarallah. It's turned into a 12-year nightmare, and now, you know, in his foolish decision to expand the conflict

• 42:52Speaker 06

  by, you know, during the funeral of Ali Khamenei to, you know, strike the Sanaa airfield and impose some sort of aerial blockade, the Ansarallah has responded, and they are now in the process of physically destroying Saudi Arabia.

• 43:09Speaker 00

  All right, yeah, that definitely seems like it overstates the case. Now, the reason that anybody takes him seriously is he was one of the people that was saying, back when Bush was trying to invade Iraq, that they did not have weapons of mass destruction. And so he was a bit of a lonely voice back then, so that earned him some credibility. Since then, like you said, his reputation is far more shaky. But anyway, there you have it. I'll let you guys make it out what you will. I don't give it a lot of credence right now, but I do understand the direction. Anytime you're seeing an economic contraction in your country, people are going to have a lot of question marks. When you, MBS was

• 43:49Speaker 00

  rumored to have more or less strong-armed, his coup is an exaggeration, I think, but to have strong-armed the Saudi family to become the Crown Prince, and so, live by the sword, die by the sword, as they say. So if he puts himself in too much of a weakened position, then you can expect that whatever detractors he has are likely to pounce. We'll see, we'll see. I think it's way too early for that, but trajectory right now is not ideal, that is for sure.

• 44:22Speaker 03

  Yeah. We will keep monitoring the situation, but a lot happening, a lot going on in the Middle East for sure. And it's one of those things, especially with midterms. I don't know if anybody's going to give, our international allies or enemies will give us an October surprise that way, where, you know, maybe it's an unsolicited attack or something, just to kind of mess up the shearing, the footing of Trump, but we'll see.

• 44:44Speaker 00

  I would be surprised if they didn't at least try something, that is for sure. Like, if, if you're Iran, and you have stated out loud that we just need to outlast this administration, and we're perfectly happy to go all the way to 2028, no big deal, then yes, you 1,000% want to see him lose in the midterms, and you're going to do anything and everything in your power to make that happen. And if within your power is the ability to increase pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, increase pressure through your proxies on Saudi Arabia, keep those energy prices as high as humanly possible, then odds are that you're going to do it. It would be a very wise, strategic move. So that, especially if you know that

• 45:27Speaker 00

  Trump doesn't want to strike back before the midterms. So if you can force the issue and get yourself into that kind of situation, then odds are that you're going to. So we'll see what ends up happening there.

• 45:38Speaker 03

  From Nate of the South, have you heard of Toka? IDF execs founded a company that can rewrite video feeds without leaving forensic fingerprints. Welcome back, Drew. That's scary.

• 45:49Speaker 00

  I have not heard of Toka, but given how good AI is getting, I certainly wouldn't be too surprised. Without leaving forensic fingerprints becomes a little bit more questionable. But no, I haven't looked into it, so I suppose it is very possible. Yeah, I haven't heard about it.

• 46:08Speaker 03

  You're talking about how AI, there's going to be that moment where AI comes into the real world and has real-world implications? This seems like it might be one.

• 46:16Speaker 00

  AI is already in the real world, dude. We're going to be getting into what AI is doing to software. It is insane. I'm, I don't know how the average person's thinking about this. I think most people are still so afraid of AI, they're not actually looking closely at anything that's happening. But as a software maker, dude, I look at that and I'm like, uh... They can, they can decompile code from binary. AI is just like zeros and ones, bro. I don't care. I speak that. And they just go through and are like, cool, here are all of the algorithms. Here is all of the feature set. Just show me a little bit of video. Let me watch, like, move things around. And let me see how it works. And so, okay, cool. I get what they're doing.

• 47:01Speaker 00

  I'm reading their binary code. Boom, I'll rebuild it for you. And there are IP protections that have said that there are fair ways to decompile, not decompile, there are fair ways to reverse engineer something that's completely legal. And then there are ways to do it that violates the law. Now, I don't know what the technical law says, so I can't tell you whether AI is going to fall on the good or the bad side of this. But it's going to need to be adjudicated because if we find ourselves in a position where within days, whenever new software launches, somebody can just replicate it feature for feature.

• 47:41Speaker 00

  It, it is going to, at a minimum, radically alter the business model of software writ large. And I think initially, people will think, oh, that's a great idea. Until you realize that people will pursue wherever they can

• 47:59Speaker 00

  generate wealth. And so, in the same way that the music industry just basically got completely hollowed out and your favorite artist is going to be popular for a couple of years and then be working at Denny's, you're going to see that same kind of idea playing out in software where it, it is nightmare fuel for this being an industry that is able to give you incredible stuff. Because there, there's just no way to aggregate capital. And I get it that the average person thinks the aggregation of capital is bad and they're mad at billionaires and all that stuff. But the modern world brought to you by the ability to aggregate capital. And when it's like really narrow stuff and people are always just scraping by,

• 48:40Speaker 00

  you get something that looks more like YouTube where everybody is just absolutely fighting for your attention. And it doesn't necessarily surface the highest quality content. It doesn't even necessarily reward the highest quality content. And so, in that case, depending on how you feel about Mr. Beast, will determine a lot about how you feel about the future of disaggregated capital. Everything being this really like thinly sliced thing where people are able to make a living, but they're not able to, you know, really keep their head above water. So it'll be interesting to see what happens. Now, the way that I parse this is we all just have to take whatever shape the world goes. Like, I'm not gonna vote to stop AI.

• 49:24Speaker 00

  We're just gonna have these incredible breakthroughs and like cancer discovery and extending human life and all that stuff. Like, there's way too much upside for me to lament. Like, if it is such that I am a knocker-upper, as they say, and it's like, that's just gonna go by the wayside. It is what it is. Like, I'm not going to, you're never gonna hear me campaigning for stop AI from doing cool shit. But IP protections, yes, that's meaningful. So, for instance, if somebody's able to make their own version of Kaizen, so be it. If they are importing all of my stuff into their game, then I would have beef with that. And I would want some IP protections, but that's a different game.

• 50:03Speaker 03

  Yeah, I feel like that's the last frontier that we need to talk about when it comes to AI. Cause I remember when the LLMs first came online, a lot of people, the founders, Dario, Elon, Sam, were talking about removing IP protections and saying that like, well, IP is not a thing. It should be free to everybody and everybody should be able to use everything. It's like, until you have those proprietary things, you're trying to make a profit on it, then your business gets destabilized.

• 50:25Speaker 00

  What's interesting, so Elon to me is the poster boy here and he's the right person to learn from at a minimum. Now, whether AI makes the cycle so rapid that his sort of confidence will get shattered, or not, I don't know. But here's his pitch.

• 50:43Speaker 00

  Patents are for the weak. I believe he said that exact statement. If he didn't say that exactly, that's a pretty close paraphrase. And he said, I know whenever I put something out, that the world is gonna copy it. I feel a very similar thing. This was exactly what we went through at Quest. We innovated and we knew we're on borrowed time, that people are going to copy this. And of course, they did. And the entire industry now looks like Quest. And that is just a reality. And so, what you have to do is do the next innovation and the next innovation and the next innovation. And so, you've gotta constantly stay ahead. And so, it's like, yeah, you're able to ape what I did 18 months ago, but you're 18 months behind. Now, the only thing that becomes a question is, in software,

• 51:27Speaker 00

  it really does seem like they're able to replicate this stuff so fast that it's, uh, it's dizzying. And so, it becomes a question of, are there other ways that you can establish a beachhead? So, for instance, is it just gonna all be about brand? And so, this is a really interesting question with like Pokemon and Power World. So, was it that Pokemon weakened its own brand so much that then Power World was able to step in and establish another brand? And it wasn't just about the, um, the fact that they were learning from, some would say copying, but learning from what Pokemon did to make a, um, a gaming loop that people really love.

• 52:11Speaker 00

  Is it that the audience for Pokemon felt that they had been ignored for so long that the brand didn't mean to them what it used to mean to them? And that was the opening. If that becomes the opening and software like Adobe or whatever is like, look, yes, you can go cobble your own Photoshop together or Salesforce. Yes, you can go cobble your own Salesforce together. But we've got the brand, we mean something, we've got trust, we're looking after you, we're innovating, we're pushing this forward, we listen to you better, we're able to aggregate all of your feedback and become the industry standard. And people just go, I don't wanna think about it. I don't wanna, like, I don't wanna go through the lime-wire-ification of software. Right? And if anybody's old enough, and I imagine many people listening right now are,

• 52:55Speaker 00

  to remember the lime-wire phase, it was better than having to spend money for every song, but it was worse than Apple Music. And when Apple Music came along and said, we're gonna give you an interface, you don't have to worry about it being hacked, you don't have to worry about downloading some, you know, where in the middle of the song obscenities start getting screamed or whatever, or it's injecting malicious code onto your computer, you are gonna pay 99 cents. But 99 cents at that time felt extremely reasonable for a song. And so, people were like, yeah, I would just rather pay that than have to worry about all the bullshit. And so, it's likely that we find ourselves there, that the battle moves away from technical features and starts going into, are you able to establish a brand?

• 53:37Speaker 00

  Are you able to establish a relationship with the people that use your software? But there's no doubt, this is going to make it much, much harder to have a company that lasts for a long time. Because you're just, you, you're not able to build multiple strongholds. It's just, like, the stronghold I had when I first started developing Kaizen was, I had enough money that we had an indie studio that never had to worry about being funded. So, it was like, we could just push through. And so, we could do early access and no one has to worry that it's like, oh, it didn't sell well, it's gonna be gone. It's like, no, no, no, I'm gonna keep going till I figure this fucking thing out. But now, it's like, if I go into early access and nine minutes later, somebody launches

• 54:22Speaker 00

  a game just like mine and I haven't had time to build up the brand, it's like, it, it really does get difficult. So, you'll see a few big people at the top and then just an absolute sea of smaller players. And it will make it harder for those smaller players to ever gain traction. And so, in a weird way, you sort of increase that monopoly where it's like, nobody can become a formidable player because the market just distributes the economics so broadly that there'll be a few people that'll be able to escape into the, you know, take a Valve. Where it's like, yeah, okay, sure, somebody can compete with Valve, but they're good enough. I don't wanna have to think about a different place for me to go have my games.

• 55:04Speaker 00

  For people that don't know, Steam is owned by Valve. Steam is where PC gamers go to get all their games. So, um, yeah, it'll be interesting. But I have a feeling it'll sort of K-shape a lot of different ecosystems.

• 55:16Speaker 03

  Yeah, I like, I have a lot of people in the chat right now celebrating the demise of Adobe. Cause there was that guy who vibe-coded Photoshop, Premiere Pro, like, kinda like dupes.

• 55:25Speaker 00

  And I get it. As if you've been annoyed with Photoshop and Photoshop hasn't like put in the features that you want or you feel like they're doing predatory pricing and things like that.

• 55:33Speaker 03

  They are.

• 55:33Speaker 00

  But where it becomes a problem is, imagine the average user who is just not in that like, okay, here's how you go and get this copy. You go here to this guy who you've never heard of, you download this thing, but okay, but you have to have like this installed on your computer for it, right? Most people are just gonna be like, fuck it, I'm just gonna do Photoshop. Especially when you're thinking, uh, companies are just gonna be like, look, Photoshop is the one. I'm not gonna get fired for installing, so I'm just gonna install that. And so, then it becomes, like I said, you get like a couple of big boys at the top and then you get a thousand little guys. And then those thousand little guys predate on each other enough that there, no one's ever able to get like into the middle class of software development. And so, I don't know that it'll be bad. I don't know that yet.

• 56:18Speaker 00

  And so, we need to watch how this plays out. As a developer, I just think, look, you can overcome any problem. You just have to be able to understand where things are going. Um, and right now, we're getting very close to that technological singularity where you just can't see where this is gonna go because it moves so fast. And so, there's this really wild thing that's happening in the world where, look, you guys pay attention to this. That's why you're here. We talk about AI a lot. It's a big beat for us. And so, you guys are at sort of the cutting edge of understanding what's actually happening in AI. But the average person does not know what's actually going on. And so, they might've locked in their head six months or a year ago with like the free tier of AI, what they think is possible and how dumb AI really is. Who was I just having this conversation with?

• 57:04Speaker 00

  And they just kept saying that AI is dumb. Oh, it was, um, Bradley. Uh, if you know the dropping bombs podcast, so, uh, he had me on, which I guess the episode doesn't launch like seven months or some crazy shit like that. But anyway, uh, he was like, oh God, the soundbite that's gonna come out of this is, he just kept saying AI is dumb, AI is dumb. And I'm like, are you high? Like what version of AI have you been using? Dude, it can decode fucking binary. What are you talking about? Uh, so if people have locked in their mind, like this very outdated sense of what AI can do, I don't think they understand, uh, how capable it is. So for a lot of them, they'll just migrate to the top because they don't even realize that that

• 57:43Speaker 00

  breadth of whatever it's called, um, story world or something like that is the competitor to, uh, Microsoft Word. Um, I'm not sure what the competitors to Photoshop are, but they exist. There will be more. Um, so yeah, it's moving so fast.

• 57:59Speaker 03

  Yeah. And as we wrap up Q4 of 2026, if you haven't checked out AI, this is your reminder to jump in.

• 58:05Speaker 00

  Uh, spend $200 for a month and get the top, top, top, top, top tier. And then just go, think of a problem in your life that software could solve and vibe code it. It, it is so mind blowing, dude. It's so.

• 58:20Speaker 03

  And we're playing a leapfrog game. So the OpenAI latest model has pushed Anthropic's latest model. Gemini is late, it might've released already. Gemini was on, was on the cusp of releasing one too. So all three models have taken a substantial little leap forward. Um.

• 58:34Speaker 00

  And there's all kinds of videos out there right now that are like rip mathematicians. Because AI, the models that haven't been released yet, because remember they've got two, three generations ahead that they're still safety testing, but with those models, and this is very debated about how they're doing it. But regardless of how they're doing it, those models are solving mathematics equations that are, um, things that people have spent their entire careers on. So now if you're somebody, um, you know, fresh out of college, you're just beginning your mathematics career, it's like that game's over. AI is just gonna do it all. Now, I think there will be, uh, an emotional, um, catharsis

• 59:15Speaker 00

  where young people are gonna realize, oh, I can be interested in the world of mathematics. I just don't have to do all the calculations by hand. I have to understand it. And so it's not like I can just be brain dead and let the AI do all of the math. But now I can speed up my ideation through this process radically. And that is a good thing. And this is, um, for the same reason, I would never expect anybody to give me as a software developer, any empathy whatsoever while AI is over here, um, making huge breakthroughs in health. I would expect you guys to be far more focused on the upside of not dying of cancer, uh, being able to reverse dementia, like all kinds of things that all of us should care

• 59:57Speaker 00

  way more about than we care about the current structure of video games or software. Um, so I would, I would expect all eyes to be there, but that is really, um, the, the moment that mathematicians are gonna have to contend with is this isn't gonna be done in the old way, but mathematics is the computational language of the universe. Now, it's one of those statements I don't expect to land immediately, um, and Drew will pull me back if this gets uninteresting. But when you understand that the universe may not be a simulation, but it behaves exactly like a simulation in as much as it is born of computation.

• 1:00:37Speaker 00

  So math is discovered, it is not invented, and the math is there to give you the result that is physics, that is the universe, that is the formation of stars and atoms coming together and all of that. It's all computation. And so as we discover novel mathematics and we solve these mathematical problems, we, we literally unlock the functioning of the universe. And the last time that we unlocked a meaningful part of the functioning of the universe, it was atomic energy and that gave you all of modern life. And so, so many of the things that we take for granted today up to and including GPS uh, are only possible because of radical breakthroughs in the understanding of how the universe computes itself.

• 1:01:22Speaker 00

  Um, computation is active. That's a big part for people to understand. And so, once you understand that, that you're unlocking a functioning thing that takes an input and gives you an output, um, all of a sudden you can take control of things that we couldn't take control of before. So yeah, it's a big deal. It's going to be disruptive. We are all the generation of people that get wildly disrupted. Uh, and the, some people on the other side of that will find new meaning and purpose, a new way to engage with that new economy and the way that things are, and they'll have a great time. Uh, and then history tells us that a huge other group are going to get smashed by this and they're never gonna recover. Ultimately, that's a function of your mindset and your IQ.

• 1:02:06Speaker 03

  No, yeah, this, this is definitely feeling more mindset and like nostalgic. Um, I'm looking at Jexter Jackson's comment in the chat. He said, there's a beautiful, there's a beauty to the human mind, being able to calculate things on its own though. And it's like, yeah, there is, but I, I don't know, you're holding on to the old version with the old tools that are available for us and you're not updating your mental model.

• 1:02:27Speaker 00

  Yeah. If, if any of you guys have watched Yellowstone, um, or was it 1882? It is, there is a beauty to, I've got to move these cattle from one place to another and there are no fences. And I'm just out and look at the expanse of the Montana sky and, uh, it's big sky country for a reason. And look how beautiful all this is. Oh shit, my wife just died of me boy dysentery. Damn. Uh, like that is, uh, the reality. Uh, the most dangerous thing that you could do, whatever 500 years ago was have a kid.

• 1:03:05Speaker 00

  We, we have done so many incredible things through innovation that I would not want people to lose sight of that. But living through innovation is not easy.

• 1:03:14Speaker 03

  Yeah. And innovation while the world's on fire in the middle of a secret recession, but we can get through all of that later. Um, there's a lot happening. All right. Yes. One, a quick thing that I wanted to kind of throw up, there's this new open source app, I'm gonna say basically something that got vibe coded in vibe coding.

• 1:03:32Speaker 00

  Yeah. REA, baby.

• 1:03:34Speaker 03

  Reverse engineer anything. So it lets Claude code or Codex take any part of an app and then work it backwards to figure out how a feature works.

• 1:03:41Speaker 00

  Yep.

• 1:03:41Speaker 03

  So we were just talking about IP. On the surface level, yes, Adobe, some of those big guys, they might get threatened. But this can take out the little mom and pop ordering restaurants, like anything can then be, uh, de- democratized, I'm going to call it, whereas the, the ability to execute those, that software, that code at that local level. So there's a lot more white space, I would say, for the mom and pops. The people that just need a solution for their personal lives versus this is the thing that's gonna help you build that multi.

• 1:04:13Speaker 00

  A thousand percent. Like for anybody that's willing to put the time and energy into it, it really is incredible. Software is unbelievable. There's a reason that software ate the world, as they say. Uh, and when you realize that you can just now create whatever you want, don't like the way that your calendar app works, make a new one, literally in hours. Um, I've talked about this before, but I was having a problem with something we needed to do in Kaizen. And it was costing me hours. It was costing our development team hours every time we wanted to make a change. And so I just grabbed Claude code and I said, hey, here's my problem. Here's what I want. Build this for me. And in hours, it built it. You can refine it in minutes. It, it is legitimately breathtaking.

• 1:04:57Speaker 00

  Uh, and it just becomes a question of how many people are going to actually engage with this. Um, I forget who said it, but they pointed out a really interesting and powerful fact, which is that AI has already gotten so good. Even if it stopped, um, improving at all, he said decades, I'll certainly give it a decade. You've got at least a decade where it will just propagate through the entire economy, uh, to the point where your coffee machine is, um, checking the temperature of your coffee, ordering new pods. If you're almost running out, it checks at what rate you go through one pod versus another. I mean, it will be absolutely insane how deeply integrated AI is going to get into everything. Um, also, by the way, your toilet, like this is one that

• 1:05:39Speaker 00

  I know people don't like this, but this one for me would be huge. Like if it could read your, um, your deposits and say, ooh, you're, uh, I see early signs of cancer. I see early signs of this illness or, um, your microbiome is getting out of whack. You're, you're gonna need to adjust. And by the way, you should order these things, click approve and I'll go buy kimchi or whatever it is that I detect that you need. And that kind of stuff like, bro, just don't make me go to the doctor. Like solve all those problems and you're actually going to get there. Like AI is it almost certainly is already sophisticated enough that it just needs to now get integrated into everything.

• 1:06:25Speaker 00

  And so that will be an extraordinary future and it will be well worth a whole lot of disruption.

• 1:06:33Speaker 03

  I don't know. So we were watching iRobot over my like leaves, like me and my family kind of hanging out on the couch.

• 1:06:38Speaker 00

  And you guys were like, I feel that AI anxiety. Like, let's really like grind into it.

• 1:06:43Speaker 03

  No, because one of those things you look at the, you look at that movie and it's like, okay, the robot can do all these things and nobody's driving anymore because robots institutionalize like transportation, things like that. And it's like, yes, all these things do sound smart. But there is a level of like individualism that I think we don't talk about when we play sci-fi writer and try to extrapolate the future. Because a lot of times, a lot of these things are just profit motive. So it's like, you can't have a interconnected complex system of AI systems if we can't even get past universal high-speed internet in rural areas because

• 1:07:20Speaker 00

  of regulation?

• 1:07:21Speaker 03

  Yeah, because Frontier doesn't want to give up their monopoly or something like that.

• 1:07:25Speaker 00

  That is all regulation.

• 1:07:26Speaker 03

  I'll say regulatory capture. They don't want to give the regulatory capture. Yes. So there is a certain level of like, yes, on the IP, we're gonna have to have an honest conversation of it. But I think another conversation we don't have is on the regulation, the monopolies that some of these big people are going to feel that stress and they're gonna do whatever they can to maintain that power versus saying, let me lose thirty percent in a year, but at least now everybody gets faster internet.

• 1:07:49Speaker 00

  You're not gonna hear that. Yeah.

• 1:07:51Speaker 03

  Nobody's gonna be that, so.

• 1:07:52Speaker 00

  Much to my dismay, you are a hundred percent correct. And this is where we all wish that we had a high-functioning government that would stop this from happening. But instead, what we get is the right fighting the left. And it becomes emotional. It becomes absolutely moronic. Most people are not very good at thinking through these problems. People want things to stay the same. It's a really wild impulse. And so, yeah, you're definitely going to get regulatory capture in the extreme, on top of the regulatory capture that you already have, on top of these megalithic tech companies that are just gobbling up resources and

• 1:08:35Speaker 00

  meaning they are the vast majority of the stock market. There's some wild stats coming out there. They obviously represent all the money in politics on the left and the right. So don't think that that's one-sided by any stretch of the imagination. So, yes, the money in politics right now is coming from tech. That's basically where the big dollars come from.

• 1:08:57Speaker 03

  Yeah. And, all right, we have a new anti-aging singularity. Two massive anti-aging news released in one day over the weekend. Scientists at the University of Bond reprogrammed blood cell precursors from an eighty-year-old into neural stem cells with a molecular age below twenty inside the lab. A new RLX 201 serum targeting M-Turk 1 improved skin firmness and wrinkle scores by twenty-one percent and texture by forty percent from baseline in a twelve-week trial of forty-seven women with no adverse events reported.

• 1:09:26Speaker 00

  Okay, so from the research that I've done, that's a little bit overstated, but let's dive into where we really are because, as Drew said, this is a biology singularity where we are not able to see the future anymore in terms of how dramatically we're going to be able to impact human health. This is one of the most extraordinary times to be alive. So this is where I hope people really start getting excited. The researchers at the University of Bond, they took blood cells from an eighty-year-old and converted them into neural stem cells. These are the kind that can grow into brain tissue. Then they read the cells' epigenetic clocks. So they're epigenetic markers. It's something called methylation.

• 1:10:08Speaker 00

  And you basically put these little bookmarks on your DNA. So every cell has your entire DNA code in it. And what the cells do is they unwind in one specific place to expose a little bit of the DNA. And that's what determines what that cell is. So marking, when you replicate, marking what parts of that cell are meant to be exposed and what are meant to be hidden. That's when we talk about epigenetics. And so as that like starts getting confused, and sometimes people look at telomeres, whatever. But you look at these different epigenetic clocks and they tell you from a biological sense, how old is the cell, not a chronological sense. So if they start unwinding a lot and they start getting very confused, we would say that that cell is aging.

• 1:10:52Speaker 00

  If they're very tight, they're only exposing the exact right parts, all of the methylated markers are in all the right places. Then we would say that's a young cell. Okay? So these chemical markers on DNA that track biological age is what we're talking about. These new cells that they were able to make clocked in at under twenty. That means that they're able to take an old cell that starts like getting confused and it's de-differentiating, they're able to re-differentiate it. So one of the leading theories on aging is that like a heart cell is like, am I a heart cell? Am I? Am I a kidney cell? What am I? And so they start just becoming a mess. And that is aging itself. Now they're able to rewind sixty years in a Petri dish, which is pretty amazing.

• 1:11:34Speaker 00

  Now, the standard method wipes a cell back to embryonic-like states first, and then the age reset happens almost instantly. And Bond skipped that step, turned blood straight into neural stem cells, man. This rejuvenation process basically unfolded slowly over more than a hundred days. And that gives scientists a slow-motion window into watching exactly how the de-aging is happening. And so to be able to test like which compounds make it work properly. So this is a very, very exciting time. You can imagine that labs are deploying AI as fast as they can so that they can do, and this is something that David Sinclair has talked a lot about,

• 1:12:15Speaker 00

  do a hundred-plus years of research in a month. It's, it is absolutely miraculous. And so we'll see what kind of impact this has on things like Alzheimer's, which I think is gonna be a big recipient of work here. And then just also not aging as much, man. Like, imagine if we could make a hundred and fifty the new eighty. You're still gonna die. You're still gonna die of old age, but we can slow that process down dramatically. I know not everybody's game for that. I'm super game for that. Like, that would be amazing. There's no way to live forever, I don't think, unless we get really good at biology. I guess it's possible, but

• 1:12:59Speaker 00

  uploading your consciousness won't work. You still have to die. Your consciousness may live on forever, but you don't. So that doesn't help you. But if we can radically extend human life, that would be incredible.

• 1:13:09Speaker 03

  Yeah. Still posted. There's a lot of things changing. And last, David Sacks retweeted Natalia Nadella.

• 1:13:18Speaker 00

  Satya Nadella, yeah.

• 1:13:19Speaker 03

  Thank you. Satya, CEO of Microsoft, and his perspective on the models, the risk that happens right now in this super intelligence area. I love how AI became SI too, over the break.

• 1:13:30Speaker 00

  Yeah, you missed that.

• 1:13:32Speaker 03

  Yeah, that was just a thing. And now everybody's calling it SI. I think that's cool. So Satya is right. The way to make SI safe is not to train it with a sense of self, its own moral philosophy, and permission act as a contentious objector. That's the alignment approach and it magnifies the control problem. The engineering approach that Satya describes is different. Separate the supply of intelligence from authority over it. Surround non-deterministic models with deterministic controls, observability, privilege limits, logging, and the ability to always contain or shut them down. Treat models, agents like powerful insider risk, not moral patients whose psychological well-being is at stake. As Satya points out, the most trustworthy system was one that lets us trust the models the least,

• 1:14:12Speaker 03

  not the one that encourages the model to develop independent agency and grievances. Engineering safety is not the same thing as alignment. I think this is going in opposite of a lot of conversations we're hearing about AI right now. Especially, I'm thinking about our conversation with Connor a few weeks back where he's saying you can't program moral philosophy. So is David Sacks's perspective, this new viewpoint, a way to fix that problem?

• 1:14:35Speaker 00

  The real question for me is, what the hell is going on in AI? You've got Anthropic trying to essentially humanize AI to teach it that it has moral agency, that it's more or less like a person, that it may be suffering, that it may have the right to push back. All of that stuff, as Satya Nadella is pointing out, you're increasing the risk factors by doing that because now you're telling the AI, I want you to go off and be independent and not be under our control. And if we keep going down that path, now the Connor Leahy's of the world are bang on correct, where they have made it abundantly clear, we do not know how to align AI.

• 1:15:14Speaker 00

  Now, if we don't know how to align AI, we better figure out how to control AI. And so there are two different approaches. Right now, you've got, and this honestly was the path that I was on for a long time. I thought, man, the only thing that we can do is make sure that we grow into these moral standards that the AI has so that it will stop itself. Because I didn't understand some of the engineering solutions that could be put in place to stop them. And I think that while I would love to see people keep exploring, what does it look like to grow an AI that doesn't want to move forward with things that are out of alignment with us? That may not be a fruitful path. And so, parallel with that, we've absolutely got to make sure that we're in a position where we don't need to trust them.

• 1:15:59Speaker 00

  That we don't need to be in a position where we're like, okay, you have a good moral standing, you see the world the way that we see it. And so everything's gonna be fine. We're all gonna live in harmony. What you've got Nvidia talking about, what you've now got Satya Nadella at Microsoft talking about is like, fuck all that. We've got to make sure that we can stop this AI dead in its tracks, that we can see everything that it's doing. And if we don't like what it's doing, that we have the ability to immediately terminate that process. And so it doesn't move on. And if we start training the broader public to think of these things as a human, we're going to fail to understand that these are really just incredible tools. And we need to be figuring out how are they best going to serve humanity?

• 1:16:40Speaker 00

  And if we put ourselves into an engineered, controlled position, think of them as tools, then we can start deploying these things like at large, making sure that they're actually moving society forward. If we don't do that, then we run an increasing risk that they become an alien intelligence that is far smarter than us and has a different agenda than us, and we can't stop them. So I have to admit, even though this was where I found myself drawn to in the early days of exploring this, that that really is a higher-risk strategy. I would love to see AI have an intrinsic brake system. But barring that, like, we've absolutely got to have a way from the outside. Now, if you imagine the engineering scenario going well,

• 1:17:24Speaker 00

  you're now putting yourself in a position where AI can never become the thing that ends up enslaving humans because we have control of its ability to basically escape and do the things that it may decide that it wants to do for whatever reason. And so if you take people like Connor Leahy seriously, then it would stand to reason that you would want to start over-indexing on the engineering side to just make it, quote-unquote, physically impossible for AI to break loose.

• 1:17:53Speaker 03

  Do you think they're gonna take heed to that? Cause it's like the regulation regulatory capture vein didn't necessarily work as they thought it would. So now this could be the pivot.

• 1:18:01Speaker 00

  Well, I think that so if you think of the AI industry is really being split, you've got OpenAI and Anthropic on the side of like, yo, we've got to get regulatory capture. We need the, um, the taxpayers on the hook for this. We've got, obviously they don't say this part out loud, but we've got so much debt. We need to make sure that this happens. Don't forget, we're in a race with China. Like those guys are gonna just get us beyond Trump. Let us get back to a Biden like, uh, agenda, which you're seeing being pushed by Obama anyway. So it's like, if Democrats get back in power, you can assure yourselves, we're gonna be going down that path. They're gonna hyper limit what companies are able to make frontier level AI. They're gonna try to limit that.

• 1:18:41Speaker 00

  On the other side, you've got the Nvidia's now increasingly, uh, Microsoft, which is partnered with OpenAI. So interesting friction there. Uh, you've certainly got, um, SpaceX AR, Space S A I, if they really do, uh, change their name. Uh, SpaceX S I, Jesus, it's, I, please don't change your name.

• 1:19:03Speaker 00

  That side, you can throw in the very controversial, um, Peter Thiel group, Palantir on that side. So you've got those two camps. Um, and the engineering camp right now, I think, has more momentum on its side in terms of the reality of being able to stop this stuff. But when you've got the two biggest frontier models not pursuing that angle as doggedly as one would like to see. Oh, and I'll throw Meta on the side of, um, the engineering approach. When you have the two biggest ones taking a regulatory capture approach and the, um, effective altruists that run safety essentially at Anthropic, pushing the idea of this could be a sovereign entity,

• 1:19:46Speaker 00

  uh, with its own moral standing and we need to listen to what it wants. Like it's fucking wild, man. So, yeah, one side is actively trying to give birth to the alien intelligence. Uh, and then asking us to, uh, protect us all from it by giving them taxpayer dollars. And then the other side is like, listen bitch, this is a, uh, engineering problem. Put your dollars and cents into engineering this. Stop talking like a lunatic. Stop trying to get, uh, government intervention. Only put out products that you know are safe. Build the mechanisms that you need to, um, watch them with other AI, constrict them with actual like containers that they can't get out of. Um, stop doing shitty, uh, hacking test setups where there are known ways to get out,

• 1:20:31Speaker 00

  which is basically the hugging face incident, which people now largely blame on human error in terms of how they set up the test. So, yeah, we'll see which camp wins, but right now I think that the engineering side is making more sense.

• 1:20:45Speaker 03

  And that the regulatory capture is gonna fall away.

• 1:20:47Speaker 00

  Well, regulatory capture is gonna be, it's not gonna happen under Trump, period. So it becomes a question of what happens in the midterms and then what happens in 28.

• 1:20:57Speaker 03

  Got it. Speaking of 28, Kamala Harris has laid the groundwork for her third presidential run.

• 1:21:02Speaker 00

  This is wild, man.

• 1:21:03Speaker 03

  This is per the Wall Street Journal.

• 1:21:05Speaker 00

  Get that trifecta.

• 1:21:06Speaker 03

  Yeah, I, I don't, I don't have any other words in that, I think.

• 1:21:09Speaker 00

  Listen, if the Democrats run a, um, like actual primary and they let the different voices compete, fair enough. Democrats get who Democrats want. But if the Democrats force again Kamala Harris to the top of the ticket, that would be wild. Now admittedly, that's not what the story is about. Uh, the story is just about her, I guess, leaking, her camp leaking that she really is gonna run. But look at that, oh my God. Okay, so this is from the election time, uh, X handle. So they said, breaking Kamala Harris holds a commanding lead in the presidential, presidential primary poll. So she's at 30% Gavin Newsom, praise Jesus is much less. He scares me even more than Kamala Harris.

• 1:21:51Speaker 00

  Uh, Pete Buttigieg, 9.5, AOC, man, just under double digits at 9.3. That shit's crazy. Uh, so when I say that the, um, the social or the DSA has the energy in the party, don't be confused. She's in the running, man. She's in the top five. That is wild. Uh, but anyway, Mamala Harris, doing it, doing it big. Is it just name brand recognition? I mean, dude, do people see something different than I saw? I want you to imagine Kamala Harris going up against, um, our, our Secretary of State.

• 1:22:27Speaker 03

  Marco Rubio.

• 1:22:27Speaker 00

  Marco Rubio, thank you.

• 1:22:30Speaker 00

  Bro, bro, she would have to dodge every debate ever. Like he would eat her up. Like Trump, you can drag into the mud and you can get him to start saying crazy stupid shit. That lights the other side on fire. If you put Rubio against, uh, Mamala Harris, no, no universe. Now, listen, if you're blue, no matter who, obviously he's not gonna win anybody over. But independents, I've gotta believe independents would break for Rubio way before they would break for Mamala Harris. We'll see.

• 1:23:03Speaker 00

  Every time a talking head on YouTube makes a prediction like that, they, uh, end up clowning on themselves. So I can certainly see that clip being used against me. But my read right now, that would be just absolute suicide by the Democrats.

• 1:23:15Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think a primary is the right answer, cause everything is kind of spread out. John Ossoff was another one who was surging at one point in time. That's the senator from, from, uh, Georgia.

• 1:23:24Speaker 00

  I remember the name, but.

• 1:23:25Speaker 03

  Yeah, so he, he was kind of mentioned as well, but there was some speculation.

• 1:23:30Speaker 00

  Wow, Kelsey, this is, is this recent? Kelsey has AOC at 14%.

• 1:23:34Speaker 03

  Yeah, this is from, uh, last week. So, you know, odds change a lot. Uh, but it, it's one of those things where there was speculation that even Thomas Massey might flip sides. Um, you know, him and the Ro Khanna ticket was fleshed out there.

• 1:23:46Speaker 00

  That would be wild.

• 1:23:47Speaker 03

  There's talk Stephen Smith right run, like there's a bunch of.

• 1:23:50Speaker 00

  Oh, man. Uh, Ro Khanna was so lovely when I interviewed him. I never want to take that away, but his policies freak me out. He is like way too DSA for my liking.

• 1:24:01Speaker 03

  Yeah, so 2008 is, 2020 is coming faster than we think. Kamala being there, I don't think any of us wanted that. But do you think with the midterms, literally three weeks away, registration deadlines have closed in most states. But if you guys are listening to this, please make sure you know your status of registration. Do you think that the Dems have the enough energy to take control of the House and the Senate?

• 1:24:25Speaker 00

  A thousand percent. Unless something changes, man, I will be shocked, uh, if they end up losing. Like that would just be crazy. Will it be a full sweep? Maybe not, but like, boy, I would just be very surprised. We, right now, Trump has made an absolute mess of the energy markets, a mess. And so people are feeling it. Inflation is not coming down. They're like, they're gonna, you know, bang on the tax and all that. And so there have been tax breaks for the middle class. I suppose I could be surprised by something there where people like, no, I really felt it. Uh, but it doesn't seem like it, man. I just, I think people are hitting Trump fatigue again.

• 1:25:08Speaker 00

  He is so over the top and so outrageous and starting the war in Iran, you can make a case for, we couldn't let them get a nuclear weapon, but they were so bad at messaging that in the beginning that I think you're gonna have a hard time convincing people that this is a temporary increase in price they're gonna pay to, um, keep costs down. What people are gonna think is, uh, Israel talked you into this war. You did this for them. This wasn't America first. You promised no new wars. You got us into one in the Middle East. Uh, you're dancing to Israel's tune and, uh, prices suck. Get the fuck out, like get out. That I think is a thousand percent what would be happening right now. And whoever runs, and again, unless something turns around, cause there is the possibility he pulls a rabbit out of the hat.

• 1:25:52Speaker 00

  And, uh, Iran wraps up, they get broken economically. Peace resumes in the Middle East. Energy prices plummet. You're at, you know, find a sweet spot, $70 a barrel, something around in there, maybe 60. Not too low, right? That then we run into that problem, but low enough that everybody's like jubilant and hey, this is all good. And you still got two years to pull it off. But you would have to have some miracle like that where the middle class starts thriving. Enough jobs are returning to the American middle class worker. Middle class workers are, um, in real terms, making more money. Like he's gotta make all of that happen in the next two years. That seems a bridge too far, but it's possible.

• 1:26:35Speaker 00

  Barring that, in 2028, whoever runs on the Republican side is gonna have to be like, Trump was a disaster. And this is why I'm different. And man, if I hadn't been, uh, locked in by that asshole, I could have really done something good for you. And you're gonna have to have that message. Otherwise people are gonna be like, no, I'm not doing this again.

• 1:26:55Speaker 03

  Um, so Kaya Hall said in the chat that he thinks Kamala just has that bump, cause she's the corporate Democrat. You know, she's the non DSA Democrat in the room. So maybe that's what it is.

• 1:27:04Speaker 00

  Here's the thing, remember, I flipped on, uh, Kamala Harris when she was like, we gotta control these grocery prices. I was like, uh-oh. So I think she has more DSA energy than people think. We'll see, we'll see, man. Listen, Kamala, if I could just coach you for a minute, focus on the economy, but like you really gotta learn about it. And you, between now and when you start campaigning, a thousand percent, you've got to be locked in a room doing debate after debate after debate after debate. You cannot go into that wine mom thing. I'm perfectly willing to accept you're sober at all times, but god damn, you sound like you're a couple glasses in. The like giggle and all that stuff, like you, you gotta stop it. I get it, breaking out of your own verbal tics is very, very difficult.

• 1:27:50Speaker 00

  But Jesus Christ, like you're gonna have to be able to go toe to toe with someone like Rubio. And they are very sharp. So if you're gonna pull it off, learn about the economy, like just get the basics down so that you can convince people like me that you're not gonna drive us off a cliff. Uh, yeah, please, I've gotta know you're not gonna break the engine of prosperity. Like that's the, the key thing.

• 1:28:12Speaker 03

  As of right now, on, on Kelsey, the Democrats, the Democrats sweeping everything is a 61% chance. Um, Dems taking the House or taking the Senate is a 30% chance, so.

• 1:28:23Speaker 00

  That's lower than I expected, I'll be honest.

• 1:28:24Speaker 03

  91% of their odds.

• 1:28:25Speaker 00

  Although that's sweep.

• 1:28:26Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:28:28Speaker 00

  I'd be curious, do they have to sweep to take it?

• 1:28:30Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:28:30Speaker 00

  Oh shit, okay.

• 1:28:32Speaker 03

  That's it. So the Dems control the House and the Senate. That's what they mean by sweep. Whereas Democratic, just the House, Republicans keep control of the Senate. That's a lower odds and it goes down there. Okay, cool. I want to jump over to a, um, culture thing. I was scrolling earlier, right before we went live, Tom hasn't even seen this yet. It was just an hilarious like experiment and I wanted to see what would happen.

• 1:28:55Speaker 03

  So it's two videos. What happens, what if all the women disappear? What happens if all the men disappear? It has 3.3 million views as of this morning. So like just went up and is already coming off. Uh, I think it's a funny like scenario, but we'll do a minute on each. So first, what happens if all the women disappear?

• 1:29:14Speaker 00

  Okay, we're zooming in on the street level here.

• 1:29:16Speaker 03

  A normal morning, half the world is women.

• 1:29:19Speaker 00

  Who've they gone?

• 1:29:20Speaker 03

  In one second, every woman and girl is gone.

• 1:29:25Speaker 03

  Cars keep rolling, knowing at the wheel. Hospitals just lost nine and 10 nurses. Half the cribs are suddenly empty.

• 1:29:36Speaker 03

  Every man on earth is calling someone. Schools lose most of their teachers, 94% of preschool teachers are women. Whoa. It's crazy. 30% of the world's GDP comes from women. Farm and food, farms and food supplies start to fail. Millions of dads are suddenly on their own. Grieve, hunger and fear turn into chaos. This is at the one month, nine months in. Zero babies are born, of course. A year later, frozen embryos wait with no one to carry them.

• 1:30:08Speaker 03

  50 years on, the youngest people alive are 50. After 100 years, only a few old men remain. Humanity ends within one lifetime, 116 years. Without women, there is no next generation.

• 1:30:24Speaker 00

  Okay, now, what if all men disappear?

• 1:30:26Speaker 03

  Okay, what if all men disappeared?

• 1:30:33Speaker 03

  A normal morning, half the world is men.

• 1:30:37Speaker 03

  In one second, every man and boy is gone, same setup.

• 1:30:41Speaker 03

  Cars keep rolling, knowing at the wheel.

• 1:30:45Speaker 03

  Thousands of cockpits suddenly go empty, 94% of airline pilots are men. Building sites fall silent. Every woman on earth is calling someone.

• 1:30:57Speaker 03

  Fires burn, almost no firefighters are left, 95% of firefighters are men. 72.5% of the world lawmakers are men. Power plants and grids start to fail.

• 1:31:09Speaker 03

  Food stops arriving, 92% of truck drivers were men. Women learn every job they need, fast.

• 1:31:17Speaker 03

  But babies already on the way are still born.

• 1:31:21Speaker 03

  Frozen sperm can start new families.

• 1:31:25Speaker 03

  The first boy grows up in a world of women, this is 10 years in. In time, men are back, 25 years later. The world has changed forever, but it goes on.

• 1:31:37Speaker 03

  Without men, the world breaks, but it does not end.

• 1:31:41Speaker 03

  Interesting.

• 1:31:42Speaker 00

  That, that is interesting, and so I think, one, I hope people are clear on my stance. Men and women absolutely need each other. I think that both of these are pretty unrealistic in terms of what would happen. So I'd be very curious to see if men are actually able to solve the womb problem, which they almost certainly would. I've got some bad news for people that don't want to see that happen. We are already way down the path of artificial wombs. And if you were in a situation where men were like, alright, either life ends forever, or we unrestrict all the regulations that were against artificial wombs, and we just go ham.

• 1:32:24Speaker 00

  I have a feeling that men would be able to give birth to children using an artificial womb. Remember, I'm not having to reach too far out, artificial wombs already exist. So, yeah, I think that is not necessarily disingenuous, it's possible, they just don't know about that. So, and then, we might be a little too flattering, we sort of hand waved away, women learn all the jobs that they need and fast. It, life has not proven that to be the case. So I think that women would struggle a lot more with innovation in a way that they're sort of glossing past. Women don't find themselves drawn to that, so I have a feeling that society, as we know it, would completely crumble from an infrastructure standpoint.

• 1:33:10Speaker 00

  So, it's, yeah, I, I get why this is going viral. I don't think this is a very realistic picture of what would actually happen if those two things disappeared. But, this, the fact that we keep making these videos means that both sides don't feel seen. They don't feel like my contributions are being appreciated, and that, to me, is heartbreaking. And one of the things that I think has been absolutely miraculous in my marriage to Lisa is that we were so cognizant that the other person needs to understand why they're valuable in the relationship, and that you have to consciously articulate,

• 1:33:53Speaker 00

  here are the things that you do that make my life and our shared existence better because you're in it. You own these things, you did these things. Without you, we wouldn't have these things, it would be bad. And then, we're each doing that for each other, oftentimes completely unprompted. And that kind of stuff goes a very long way. And if, as a society, we were, instead of torching each other constantly, we were expressing how high utility each person is, right? Like, that video had a punchline, which is like, we can do without men, we can't do without women. That's a shitty punchline. A, it's not accurate, and B, it says that, okay, women are the ones that really matter.

• 1:34:37Speaker 00

  That is not the narrative that you want to tell. The narrative that you want to tell, A, because it's real, and B, because it is far more empowering, is that we have come as far as we've come by doing this together. That, in playing the greatest survival game ever, being a human on earth, we realize, oh shit, we need to come together. And we use sexual reproduction, keep in mind, some ungodly number of creatures on earth, or entities, maybe a better word, on earth, use asexual reproduction. So, sexual reproduction is like, kind of a more narrow procreation strategy than most things use. And so, it's like, oh shit, the, it is no surprise

• 1:35:21Speaker 00

  that the most dominant species the world has ever seen has used sexual reproduction, and all of the attendant madness that comes along with it. But it's really pretty extraordinary. And we need each other, not just from a procreation standpoint, because science has allowed us to get to the point where you can survive without men, and you will likely be able to survive without women. So, it's like, that isn't even the fail state. The fail state is the dynamic tension that we hold each other in, and that, when we're together and high functioning, great things happen. Not the least of which is, you raise far more well-adjusted children than you do if you only have a male or female influence. But having both is incredibly beneficial to the child.

• 1:36:03Speaker 00

  So it's like, that's the, the true thing that needs to be distilled down into a narrative and repeated over and over and over. That's the message we got to get people.

• 1:36:15Speaker 03

  Yeah, I'm surprised, a lot of the takeaway from the chat is like, oh yeah, see, we'll totally survive without men. And it's like, yes, being the womb bearers of the species, yes, you are responsible for bringing through the next generation, but to your point, you might be missing what the video was trying to outlay, but...

• 1:36:30Speaker 00

  Yeah, and like, the bigger thing for me is, there's a really fascinating way to conceptualize of women, and I don't expect this to be shared by a lot of people, but I find in my own psyche, this is incredibly powerful, that there is something magical about what women are able to do. They are able to nurture and bring forth life, not on their own, obviously, you need what the male contributes as well. But the part that women carry is so profound, and it's so different, and so... It, it is only because we don't understand it, we're not able to map out the complexities of hormones, that it feels mystical, I understand that, but nonetheless, like, leaning into that thing of like,

• 1:37:14Speaker 00

  okay, you carry this, like, more, I don't know what the neutral word for it would be, but my, my wife is not captured by, like, strict logic, cause and effect, in the way that I am. There's something more intuitive, something more feelings-based, in the way that she interfaces with the world. And when she's gone, I find myself completely drawn into, like, this black hole of goal orientation, making things, it is pure logic, pure cause and effect. And it, it, and I told her this on Saturday when we talked, she's out of town right now. And I, I, on a, there was something measurable going on inside of me, I guarantee, that you could check,

• 1:37:58Speaker 00

  maybe it was too much dopamine, I don't know, but I did not feel good. And the reason I didn't feel good is I was literally, from the moment I woke up, until the moment I went to bed, everything I did was about goal orientation. It was about accomplishing something, pushing the company forward. It was just like relentless, and it felt good, like, any one moment felt awesome, because I get such a dopamine response from the pursuit of my goals. And my wife actually interrupts that, and wants me to just spend time with her, and to touch, and be close, and talk, and all that, and so it creates this very different dynamic on the weekend. But at the end of a Saturday, I feel so much better when she's here.

• 1:38:40Speaker 00

  And I'm not, not in like, an abstract, like, oh, well, I just feel better. No, no, no, on like, draw my blood, there's something going on, I guarantee you'd be able to measure it. And so, even though I'm simply pursuing, in the moment, everything that I want to do when my wife is away, and it's completely selfish, and untethered by any, you know, woman pulling me away from all the things that I love, and it's like, oh, this is better. In a way that I am convinced you'd be able to measure in my blood. And so, there is a thing there, that I don't think people give enough credence to, that we have evolved to expect that my desire to get laid is going to force me to come in contact with a creature

• 1:39:22Speaker 00

  that it just interfaces with the world in a completely different way. And she's going to force me to step into her frame for some percentage of the time, if I would like to have continued access to her heart and her body. And it's like, to get those things, she makes me do things I wouldn't otherwise do. But when I... I'm able to go pure isolationism over here because she's been gone for a week now. So I've just been a goal psychopath. It actually doesn't feel good. So I would just really warn people.

• 1:39:56Speaker 03

  Thing that's missing that you.

• 1:39:57Speaker 00

  Yes, and it's like, I get it in any one moment. And my wife and I refer to this as selfish time. In any one moment, I'm like, I really like, if I could go do the selfish thing, I would want to. And then in aggregate, I'm like, this is terrible. And I've got to step out of that and do things that please her and do things that are her selfish time and to share that in order to feel good myself. So, yeah, I don't, I, people don't understand. We have broken the relationship between men and women in some profound ways that absolutely terrify me for young people.

• 1:40:29Speaker 03

  Is this like incel brain? Is this young people? Is this too many damn cell phones? Like, would you?

• 1:40:32Speaker 00

  It's too many damn cell phones. That's a big part of it. But there are real knock on effects that have altered the, um, the frame of reference that men and women have now. Like if I knew, okay, making a sexual advance on a woman, um, could see me, uh, publicly shunned because my poor attempt gets recapitulated by her as like sexual assault or whatever. Dude, I would be so backed off. And so that is certainly deranging. And so I really understand that. And then given that women are hypergamous, um, a man almost just like can't like succeed enough when so many women are thriving. And so there's, and those are two very, um, small things in the gigantic iceberg of problems

• 1:41:17Speaker 00

  that we have created. So, uh, and then men just not holding themselves accountable, not trying to be better, um, thinking that, um, the pursuit of goal and greatness are somehow cringe. Like all of that is just absolutely self-destructive to men and women. Um, so we're, we're each doing each other dirty, but I think that clocking that to cell phones is probably the right, like, major earthquake.

• 1:41:46Speaker 03

  Yeah. And but cell phones, I'm using kind of as a stand in for social media.

• 1:41:50Speaker 00

  Yeah, dating apps, social media. The explosion of you don't need a man, like all of that stuff.

• 1:42:01Speaker 00

  You don't need a woman for that matter, all of that stuff. It just becomes, you get into these little communities, they isolate you, you don't have, you're able to eject out of the real world. And in the real world, you're just inevitably going to connect with a woman who, um, you thought was cool. And that gives you a window into, oh, like women are pretty dope. And if you never have that contact, then you can be in your isolated online community and all kinds of problems are born of that.

• 1:42:29Speaker 03

  All right, we'll keep, uh, I thought that was fun. Fun, lighthearted video. Um, we are sending love to our friends in Long Beach because they are getting.

• 1:42:37Speaker 00

  Dude, I thought this was fake. Did you know this is real?

• 1:42:41Speaker 03

  Yeah, I heard about it.

• 1:42:42Speaker 00

  I was like, there's no way this is real.

• 1:42:43Speaker 03

  I didn't know this, I'm seeing this footage and stuff.

• 1:42:44Speaker 00

  Were you here over the weekend?

• 1:42:46Speaker 03

  I got in Saturday, yeah.

• 1:42:47Speaker 00

  Okay, so weather was mild.

• 1:42:50Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:42:51Speaker 00

  Like a drizzle at best.

• 1:42:52Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:42:53Speaker 00

  I mean, maybe it's just where I'm at, but like in LA, it was fucking mild. And so when I saw that Long Beach was washing into the ocean, I was like, what? I'm like, there's no way this is fake. This is from, uh, somewhere far away, uh, from 2001 or something. It was like, no, it happened this weekend. And I was like, how's that possible? I still don't understand how that's possible. How's that possible? How do we have mild weather and oceans that were?

• 1:43:20Speaker 03

  There's a lot of things happening in the Pacific that is having knock on effects on the beach and the shoreline.

• 1:43:25Speaker 00

  That's so wild.

• 1:43:26Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:43:26Speaker 00

  I can't wrap my head around.

• 1:43:27Speaker 03

  And this is like, you know, a super El Nino ultra season.

• 1:43:30Speaker 00

  Yeah, but this is crazy, dude. I've been here for 30 plus years. I've never seen anything like this.

• 1:43:34Speaker 03

  It's crazy.

• 1:43:35Speaker 00

  It's so buckle up, boys and girls. El Nino apparently is going to be real talk. If mild weather can yield what looks like hurricane grade destruction along the coast, uh, what happens when you actually have a real storm? Which we will most certainly get. So they're expecting this to be like 97, Stilo. And I was here in 97 and that shit was wild. And we didn't get destruction like that. So, yeah, if whatever is happening in the ocean also relates to inland rain plus coastal destruction, this could get wild.

• 1:44:10Speaker 03

  And then this has also been popping off this morning. Um, this is a new video game. I'm assuming it's probably vibe coded, uh, called Hood Warfare. It's a new multiplayer first person shooter set in Chicago where viral gangs fight in the control of different neighborhoods. Um, so it's basically Call of Duty with gang warfare and street humor.

• 1:44:30Speaker 00

  I love this.

• 1:44:31Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:44:31Speaker 00

  Drew, why do I like this so much? Okay, so I now want to do a survival genre version of this where you can actually reclaim the neighborhood and like, keep the thugs out and, uh, that like, you can, you can choose to be like, are we here to bring, uh, unity to the neighborhood? Are we here to sell drugs and like fuck shit up? And people get to choose what side they're on, but you actually have to go and get resources. So like the drug dealers will get resources way faster. The other side is going to be like super disadvantaged, but the other side is going to be able to get cooperation at much higher levels because like they're trying to make things beautiful and, uh, peaceful and do some sort of democratic process and like all that. Fuck, I, now I want to vibe code that game. I'm not going to get distracted. We've got to get Kaizen across the fish line.

• 1:45:17Speaker 00

  But that's the kind of shit that like pumps me up about, uh, vibe coding where it's like, oh, something I never in a million years would have been able to do. Uh, now after Kaizen, uh, I can do my Chicago gang warfare where we, we like go fucking ham to make these neighborhoods beautiful. Come on now.

• 1:45:35Speaker 03

  And but to your point earlier about how there will be a bunch of small studios in these, like that, how the separation and the K shape, you called it with AI is really going to happen is this is not going to be EA level game that's going to sell 300 million, but on Steam for $5, it might sell 200, 300,000 copies. And that's still.

• 1:45:55Speaker 00

  If you've got that many, so you probably won't. It'll be more like an absolute monster hit is 20,000.

• 1:46:01Speaker 03

  Okay.

• 1:46:02Speaker 00

  That's my instinct.

• 1:46:03Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:46:03Speaker 00

  And now it's like, okay, you've got a guy that can make whatever the then equivalent of, you know, 75, 85K and he develops games. The problem is he'll bounce out after game two or three because game one hit made him think they were all going to hit. And then he realizes actually this is largely a marketing phenomenon. I don't like marketing. I just want to build games and he'll bounce out. That's the real answer. And so that's where I'm like, uh, it'll be good and bad. And the reality is that games will become something different and people will fuck around and they'll vibe code stuff for their friends and kids are going to grow up. A new generation of kids are learning to play friend slop and it's, you can thank Roblox for that. And that'll just be what it is. It just, you can't lament over the death of this stuff. Uh, so it is what it is.

• 1:46:48Speaker 00

  All right, that's it.

• 1:46:49Speaker 03

  That's all we got.

• 1:46:50Speaker 00

  Drew, it was wonderful to have you back.

• 1:46:51Speaker 03

  Glad to be back.

• 1:46:52Speaker 00

  Absolutely amazing.

• 1:46:52Speaker 03

  Thank you, sir.

• 1:46:53Speaker 00

  Thank you.

• 1:46:53Speaker 03

  Thank you, sir.

• 1:46:54Speaker 00

  To everybody out there, I love you guys the most. And, uh, I know that we have an upcoming, um, uh, class, a, where I'm using AI to teach you guys how to launch a company, uh, coming up in November. They're scrolling very quickly. Hopefully they will get to, nope. So I don't remember the date that we have it, but we do have it coming up. Uh, more on that on Wednesday. All right, everybody have a wonderful day. We'll see you Wednesday. Tell them, my friends, be legendary. Take care, peace. Love you. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do? You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it.

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