Micron’s December 9 Deadline,What Investors Need to Know

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  Earners, what's up? Look, building wealth isn't just about making money. It's about knowing where your money is working for you. That's why we partnered with Empower. Empower is all about helping you invest well so you can go out and live a little. Their free Empower Personal Dashboard gives you a complete view of your financial life in one place. Track your net worth, monitor your budget, analyze your investments, set retirement goals, and more. You've worked hard for your money. Now make sure it's working hard for you. Download the Empower Personal Dashboard or visit empower.com. Not an Empower client, paid or sponsored.

• 2:41Speaker 04

  Let's talk about this. Let's talk about the AI sector as a whole.

• 2:44Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 2:44Speaker 04

  It's been back and forth, trending, high, low. SanDisk, we talked about that. SanDisk is almost $1,000 down from its all-time high.

• 2:55Speaker 03

  Mm-hmm.

• 2:56Speaker 04

  So it's been a little turbulence.

• 2:59Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 2:59Speaker 04

  It's been turbulence. So let's talk about Micron specifically, and then the AI trade as a whole.

• 3:05Speaker 03

  Yeah, I'm gonna unpack this a little bit. Y'all can chime in if you'd like. I appreciate it if you did, actually. So last week, I left everybody off with that December 9th date, and we're gonna come back to it. When I woke up this morning, I knew that I'd get a bunch of text messages and calls about what's up with Micron? Why is it down $21 pre-market? And then, you know, Financial Times. They reported that CXMT, the Chinese semiconductor company, the CEO said that they're gonna be releasing their, I wanna call it a DRAM chip, but it's kinda like DRAM-adjacent. And by that, I mean, yes, it is technically DRAM, but what its purposes for are very different.

• 3:49Speaker 03

  And so when we think DRAM, specifically, our audience for sure, you think Micron, you think SK Hynix, you think Samsung. You're thinking high-bandwidth memory. And so we saw all those semiconductor companies, specifically in the memory sector, pull back on that news. Why? Well, they're saying, hey, we're gonna change the way that memory chips are going to be organized, right? We're gonna make a smaller wafer that can hold more memory. But what is the memory for, right? The memory that CXMT is making is for smartphones, for PCs, and consumer electronics. And why is that important? Well, the second piece of what I'm about to say makes it important, right? CXMT has been banned and blacklisted by the United States government and military.

• 4:33Speaker 03

  Now, a few months ago, we talked about them because they were in the news saying that they had a new outlook on memory. Apple had just heard that memory prices were gonna go up. They said Micron has raised them. They said, can we test? And this was the whole issue with Trump and Tim Cook at the time going back and forth. And eventually, you know, Apple said, okay, we'll go with what everybody else is doing. Meanwhile, CXMT was still making things. Problem is this, right? When we hear news like that, you say, okay, well, and I put this in the university earlier. If you think about CXMT in terms of what they're building, who are they gonna sell it to, right? Are they selling it to data centers? Because that's where we're seeing the highest growth when it comes to high-bandwidth memory.

• 5:17Speaker 03

  Well, they can't sell it to the United States, which is the largest concentration of data centers being built. I think like 71% of data centers in the world are being built in the United States. And so you lose that as a target audience. Who do you have if you're that company? Well, you have domestic China, right? And so you gotta look at the developments of China and where they're going in terms of memory, specifically high bandwidth. This is not that, right? Like, they can build out and build out the infrastructure to get to high-bandwidth memory and using it at the same width, but that's gonna take time. Four to five years at minimum. And so the news is kinda like, okay, they said they're doing something. It really isn't relevant to what Micron's doing or SK Hynix or Samsung's doing right now. But here goes that crack, right?

• 6:02Speaker 03

  We talked about the high concentration earlier. Here comes a crack, and here comes the news. I think the biggest story is the December 9th story. And why we talked about it is because, and I'm telling you right now, December 9th, 2026 is the second anniversary of the Chips Act, which Micron agreed to during 2024, where they got $6.1 billion to build out infrastructure for their business. Now, from that time, now, I gotta give you the stock price at the time. Micron was trading at $82 at this time. Micron is now, well, I mean, it touched 1,200 at its all-time high. I know we're trading a little over 1,000 right now.

• 6:43Speaker 03

  And so at that time, a part of the agreement for the $6.1 billion was that they could not buy back shares, right? So you hear a lot of times when companies have large operating profits, they'll say, okay, we're gonna do a stock buyback. Apple's done it, Nvidia's done it. What does that mean? I'm gonna buy back shares, meaning that the existing shares that are out in the world, they now go up in value. And so you start to see companies shoot up, right? When they have buyback shares. So on December 9th, that is going to expire. Meaning, Micron can now buy back their shares. They couldn't do it for two years. Now, the CFO of Micron said that they're gonna give 100% of their operating margins back to shareholders,

• 7:25Speaker 03

  which means in turn, huge buyback of shares, which you would think would have Micron's stock price appreciate pretty quickly. Problem is this, there's a strike that is happening, or a pending strike. Now, this is something we really gotta pay attention to because, obviously, Micron still operates in Taiwan. The two unions in Taiwan, which has about, I think, 8,000 employees, they're preparing to say, if we can't figure out something by October 22nd, they're willing to walk off the site. You lose that many workers at a plant of that magnitude at a time like this in high demand, that disrupts the business. Earners, what's up? Look, if you run a small business, you know how important it is to stay on top of your numbers.

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• 8:48Speaker 03

  This message is a paid partnership with Apple Card. One thing I've learned over the years is that building wealth starts with being intentional. And one of the things we talk about all the time on Earn Your Leisure is that it's not just about how much you make. It's about how you manage the money you already have. That applies to everyday spending, too. The more aware you are of where your money is going, the better decisions you can make. That's one reason I appreciate Apple Card. You can earn daily cash back on every purchase you make with Apple Card, and you earn that daily cash back every day. I also like that Apple Card keeps things simple. There are no annual, late, or over the limit fees. No fees, ever.

• 9:29Speaker 03

  And you can choose to grow your daily cash by opening a high-yield savings account through Apple Card. At the end of the day, building wealth is about developing better habits and making intentional decisions with your money. Apply for Apple Card in the Wallet app on your iPhone today. Subject to credit approval. Variable APRs for Apple Card range from 17.74% to 27.99% based on credit worthiness. Rates as of October 1st, 2026. Existing customers can view their variable APR in the Wallet app or at card.apple.com. Savings is available to Apple Card owners subject to eligibility. Savings in Apple Card are by Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Salt Lake City Branch, Member FDIC. Terms and more at applecard.com.

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• 12:20Speaker 01

  They don't realize smart people use smartphones, huh? Seeing through BS they thought was gonna slide. Download Text Now because it cuts out clownery. You can literally activate it from your couch. Nationwide 5G with the same towers the other companies use. Pay what you want or not at all. You're in control. Show these ridiculous carriers we ain't paying for stupid because we're way too smart to pay dumb.

• 12:45Speaker 02

  Free app-based talk and text via the Text Now app requires Wi-Fi or data connection. Data plans sold separately. 5G where available.

• 12:50Speaker 03

  Here's what they want. This is crazy. They want 15%. I want to read this correctly. They want 15% of Micron's operating profit set aside permanently for quarterly bonuses. This is what they're saying. Micron has offered a one-time payment of $31,000 to the Taiwanese employees. That's a huge gap. Let's do the math on it really quickly. The operating profit margin this quarter for Micron was $50 billion. If you divide that by the amount of employees, that would be $2 million a quarter. $2 million a quarter. That would bring that 87% that we used to talk about in terms of operating profit margin down to 72. Why is that important?

• 13:33Speaker 03

  Well, if they have to pay employees 50% of the operating margin, and they just talked about spending 100% of that margin to buy back shares, that means that they have less money to buy back shares, which means that the stock price is not going to move the way people thought.

• 13:49Speaker 05

  Deplete it.

• 13:49Speaker 03

  So you, right? It's going to deplete it. So you got two things moving, right? You got the CX MT news, you got the strike, and you got the buyback program on December 9th.

• 14:00Speaker 03

  Somehow and some way, this is why you're seeing Micron float between 1,000 to 1,100, 1,000 to 1,100, and it can't get quite past that 1,100 mark and get back up to its all-time high because the one thing we know for sure, that the market does not appreciate or like, is uncertainty. And as long as there's uncertainty, you're going to start seeing it move in this volatile 1,100 back to 1,000. Today it got down to 979. I saw it. Trust me, I saw it. My account saw it as well. But the long-term story is still there, right? Will they figure the strike out? They have to. This is not even something that's going to be optional. In fact, Samsung, if you remember in May, went through the same exact

• 14:40Speaker 03

  process. People saw it. They said, all right, we hold power as the people, as the employees. Look how much money this company is making. We need to walk out on this. They solved it before they went on the 18-day strike. If you go back to May and look at what Samsung and SK Hynix and Micron were trading at, look what happens from like May 1st to June 25th to all those companies, once that gets figured out. I think we're on the cusp of that, right? You got, obviously, domestic things we have here, midterms, treasury yields going up. That doesn't help technology. So all these things, this feels like a perfect storm, and still, this company has remained resilient through it all, right? Still, I mean, when I looked at where the support is at, it touched its 20-day. I mean, it's very far off from its 200. I don't even want to look at the 400. It's

• 15:24Speaker 03

  out of play at this point. But these are the stories that you pay attention to, right? There's not going to be one piece of writing that's going to tell you all this. And so I said, look, shout out to you. Let me, let me at least give some context to it today. So that, that's what we're looking at when we're talking about Micron. Do we still believe in it? 1,000%. Is it still going to have an incredible 2027? Absolutely. If we get through these turmoil winds, if you hear that the strike is over, right?

• 15:52Speaker 03

  You might want to start reallocating things because if that strike ends and December 9th comes, that means that buyback is going to be coming as well. So be on the lookout for that.

• 16:01Speaker 05

  I'm gonna say this, even if the strike don't happen, this stock is a rock star stock. And we opened up this year at 295. It's currently at 939. So these situations have happened before with a lot of tech companies that have had like exuberant gains. This happened with Microsoft, it's been issues with Apple, et cetera. They'll resolve and get a deal. Going back to my point though, when you have a run like this, a lot of times people are getting off of generational companies worried about short, weekly, or monthly kerfuffles in the market. It's one of the biggest mistakes I think you can make if you were on this train to then get off of it. Stock Club don't kill

• 16:45Speaker 05

  me. I'll give a couple of prices. I had for the month, for the month of October, it potentially going to 82087, like as an area that I won't give our low to boat price. But the thing is, when the stock goes up 5X or 6X, you then have to know the math of how much it could pull back even without the political news. This happened with Nvidia. When Nvidia got on an incredible tear, that, and when it started to come down, everyone, and it happened with Microsoft earlier this year, people start calling for the death of these companies, and I think it's a tremendous mistake.

• 17:25Speaker 05

  This company is too valuable, not only to the sector that it's in, but the country that it's in, and it's too important to the AI story. For everyone here on Stock Club, if it falls to market money, I mean, 91884, I would like to take a position and then if it goes to the price that I called earlier, I would love it. But I think too many people are getting off on wishing for the death of these companies. And even the move today, and I'm like, that's not really a parabolic move to the downside. If it's up 7X over the last two, like, two years, continue to hold. Too many of us are playing short-term

• 18:06Speaker 05

  gains, like even when I do the, if you bought this stock five years ago, it would be up 70. This is one of those companies. The best of this company has not, we've not seen the best of this company yet, and it's going to continue to print high gains. Hold for the long term. I've given two prices. If I made you money, please put yes in chat. Just like when I called Nvidia falling to 89 a couple of years ago, this is one of those moments you're going to be able to buy and then hold it for a long period of time and make some more money from it. Don't get off this train yet.

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• 20:23Speaker 02

  Hello?

• 20:24Speaker 07

  Hey, it's me, your wallet.

• 20:26Speaker 02

  Oh, hey.

• 20:27Speaker 07

  I was just wondering if we could maybe take it easy this week?

• 20:30Speaker 02

  Absolutely.

• 20:31Speaker 07

  Really?

• 20:32Speaker 02

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  Obviously.

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• 20:59Speaker 00

  This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human.