11.10.26 Ask An Advisor With Wes Moss

Is the Bull Market Running Out of Time? & The ‘Friendship Recession’ Threatening Retirement Is the current bull market nearing the end of its run simply because the calendar says it's getting old? Wes Moss examines why investors might be looking at the wrong clock when assessing market cycles — and why zooming out to historical expansions since WWII reveals a much bigger picture. Then, Wes explores a different kind of downturn that poses an even greater risk to a successful retirement: the bear market on socialization. With close friendships down and isolation on the rise, staying socially connected takes intentional effort. Discover why being a "joiner" is a non-negotiable pillar of the Retire Sooner strategy. Mentioned on the show: How To Turn Your Retirement Savings Into a Monthly Paycheck (Bucket Strategy Explained) WSJ Opinion - For Investors and Savers, TINA Is Giving Way to TARA What Is a Spousal IRA and What Are the Rules? - Clark Howard All this and more on the November 10, 2026, Ask an Advisor episode of the Clark Howard podcast. Submit your questions: WesMoss.com/ask Discover the research-backed path to a happier retirement – order The Retire Sooner Method by Wes Moss today at retiresoonermethod.com We hope you enjoy our weekly Ask An Advisor episodes. Let us know what you think in the comments! Learn more about Wes: BOOKS BY WES MOSS Wes Moss, CFP® Wes Moss - Clark.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

• 0:01Speaker 00

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• 0:59Speaker 02

  Welcome to Ask an Advisor, this week's edition. I'm Krista DeBias with Wes Moss. Hello, Wes.

• 1:05Speaker 03

  Good day, Krista.

• 1:06Speaker 02

  Good day.

• 1:07Speaker 03

  I would say good morning, but I'll just say good day.

• 1:09Speaker 02

  So first, you're going to give us an update on the stock market. It's been a bit of a wild ride lately.

• 1:15Speaker 03

  Absolute bungee cord.

• 1:17Speaker 02

  Bungee cord. And then later today, you're also going to talk about we're all getting ready for the holidays. You may be going to spend time with family or friends, Friendsgiving, Thanksgiving.

• 1:27Speaker 03

  I'm talking about socialization in America. It's in focus with Thanksgiving around the corner.

• 1:33Speaker 02

  Okay, and I've got, of course, a lot of questions for you that came in at wesmoss.com/ask.

• 1:41Speaker 03

  We worry about, and you brought this up a couple of weeks ago, where there are market euphemisms or market, stock market almanac, events that people remember that spell, well, that means the market's going to do well, or the market's going to do bad because of this pattern or this calendar date comes around.

• 1:59Speaker 02

  We had a September surprise, you know, all that.

• 2:02Speaker 03

  And this is a similar notion, but it's upon us, which is the age of the bull market. Because we know that if we're looking at the traditional bull market senses where we get a bear market and then we get a rise from there and then, and we stay without a 20% correction, that's the traditional way to look at it. The bull market has turned four years old. Does that mean it's about to end? And we know that the average bull market is closer to five years. So people start to get nervous around this year four.

• 2:35Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 2:36Speaker 03

  The reality is that there is not, just because there's some sort of calendar date or anniversary, really doesn't mean that the bull market has to end. And the way to look at this in a slightly different way, and I think maybe more constructive way, is to zoom out further and look at how markets act over longer periods of time. And my sense is, if you were to do that, well, I do this, but if you really look at markets and you didn't count every time we had a minus 20, even though we may have bounced back relatively quickly, and the COVID decline is a really good example of that, where we dropped 30%, but within a really short period of time, we're kind of back to where we were. Does that mean we ended a bull market?

• 3:20Speaker 03

  Technically, it does. But doesn't it make more sense that we're in a longer term bull market, really since 2009? Here's a bear market. A bear market is 2000, all the way to 2009, where the market was down, that whole period of time, and really didn't get back to even until a few years after that. Now, you can say that because we didn't get above the bear market low, this current longer term, or you could even call this a secular, longer term versus cyclical bull market, didn't really start until 2013. But if you're looking at from the low to where we are today, even though we've had a couple of bear markets, you can make the argument that it has been a much longer period of time.

• 4:04Speaker 03

  And I think that's important for investors to think about. This has been more like a 17-year bull market. And I think that's a more important way to look at it. Since World War II, this is the way you can categorize these longer term periods of time that were overall really constructive, they were bull markets. Doesn't mean we didn't have a couple of big hiccups, but the post-war expansion was, was really June of 1949, all the way to 1973, before we went into a long, really difficult period of time for a while. And then, when we got to 1982, we'd kind of gotten out of that long 70s malaise, and

• 4:46Speaker 03

  we went from 1982 all the way to March of 2000. It was another really long bull market period of time, even though we had some big hiccups. Think about the crash of 1987 was in the middle of that. But the longer term trajectory there averaged 19% a year. The 1949 to 1973 period was almost 14% a year, again, above that, call it 10%, 11% average rate of return. And then what I would look at is this post-financial crisis, longer term bull market that we are still in, and really started, in my opinion, in 2009. The world kind of got washed out, the sentiment was terrible, the market was low, nobody

• 5:29Speaker 03

  thought that we were going to get back to economic prosperity because of the housing crisis and the great financial crisis, but we did. And we've really been in a longer term uptrend ever since, averaging a little over 16% per year since that period of time. So when we're nervous and we hear about, oh, the bull market is four years old, and we have this anniversary date or this calendar date, and it makes us worried and we're going to change our plan because of it, I want to caution against that because as we all know, and as you're listening, despite all of the recent, very recent ups and downs of the market, I feel like we've kind of had a mini earthquake and we're feeling some aftershocks. I mean, the day after the midterm election, the Dow was up over 1,500 points, just this

• 6:14Speaker 03

  massive market rally. I would explain that by certainty. Hey, we know what happened. Markets like certainty. Then the next day, it was almost all erased. And there's the worry about the AI trade slowing down, lower capital expenditures over the next couple of years. So I would just look at the general market, the S and P 500, and not focus in on the NASDAQ, which is really almost all tech, and be very measured and cautious about ending this bull market just because of a calendar date. That's not how we run a financial plan. It doesn't necessarily meet your goals to do it that way. And I think zooming out and looking at longer term periods of time, and we're still in that, is an important way to look at it.

• 6:59Speaker 02

  Okay. All right, we're going to go to some questions. This one is from Greg, who's from the state you grew up in, Wes. He's in Pennsylvania.

• 7:07Speaker 03

  Pennsylvania guy. Hey, Greg.

• 7:08Speaker 02

  He says, fiduciary or otherwise, how acceptable is it to ask a financial planner or advisor what commission they would make on a given product, such as an annuity? Do they have any responsibility to actually disclose that information? And if they decline, is that a warning sign or just part of the business?

• 7:27Speaker 03

  Greg, you're talking about an annuity. Remember, these are insurance products, so the rules are a little bit different. And there is some variation from state to state. But really, as a financial consumer, whether you're with an advisor that they have to, quote, "make prudent decisions for you" versus a fiduciary, which is your best interest, then I am a big believer that there should be transparency. And there's no question about that. If you ask an advisor what their overall fee is, they absolutely, not only should they tell you, but they really have to tell you. The rules, I think, are a little bit different on annuities. They have to give you a range. I don't think they have to give you an exact commission or an exact dollar amount, but

• 8:12Speaker 03

  I believe they need to give you some sort of percentage range. But parsing those rules, if you get into that parsing of what they're going to disclose and not disclose, and transparent or not, that in itself is a major problem. So I would be running the other direction if someone that I was doing business with, particularly for my financial future, to not be as transparent as they can possibly be, then yeah, it's a huge red flag. And if that's an issue, I would be looking for someone else for guidance.

• 8:44Speaker 02

  Okay. Ben in Wisconsin says, I appreciate all the added insight you bring to the Clark Howard podcast. I'm hoping you can help guide some of us who are in their mid to late 30s. My wife and I have already set aside $600,000 for retirement and have been between six and nine months in an emergency fund. With our current contribution figures and using a conservative 7% return, models indicate we will have near $5 million by 60. This figure is likely well over the amount we will need using a 4% rate of withdrawal when the time comes. We have a handful of individuals that have told us to take the foot off the gas a bit and spend more today. I already believe we live a comfortable life and provide our kids with great experiences.

• 9:27Speaker 02

  Are we at a place where it's okay to stop increasing our contribution rate each year and hold on to the additional cash flow? Looking for some much-needed guidance.

• 9:37Speaker 03

  Ben, live a little bit. Buy a boat.

• 9:40Speaker 02

  Oh, no.

• 9:41Speaker 03

  Go get a second home. You're already on track. You're coast-fy, man. That's what your friends are saying.

• 9:46Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 9:47Speaker 03

  That's what your friends are saying to you. Because there's keeping up with the Joneses, and then there's the Joneses not wanting you to keep up with them. And I think that's what this is, Ben. And I wouldn't assume that $5 million is way more than you need, because you're only, let's call you 35, you said mid 30s. You don't know where the world will be in 25 years from now. So I wouldn't look at that number and say, that's just too much to save. That's, I wouldn't look at that at all. So I'd still keep your eyes on that prize, because you've obviously done some math, and you think that that will work for you. So don't, don't short yourself on that, number one. Number two, at a 7% rate of return, which, yes, over time is, the market has done better

• 10:29Speaker 03

  than that, it's not a guarantee at all that we'll have that rate of return over, over the next 25 years. It's not a conservative number, but it's, I think, realistic. But the question is, what do they mean by foot off the gas? You said the word, I wrote this down, you said you're really comfortable already. So why would you, if you're comfortable, then added savings and investment only do two things. They make you even more comfortable and they help you arrive at that destination even sooner. The retire sooner method, in my opinion, is it getting to financial independence and getting there sooner, in my opinion, is very much better. So my just back of the napkin

• 11:11Speaker 03

  math tells me that if you keep saving about 30K a year, your 600 at 7% will get you to about that $5 million number. But I would contend if you're doing both, you and your wife are maxing out, Krista, Ben's probably saving a little more than that. He's probably more like 50K a year.

• 11:32Speaker 02

  Well, it depends on his income, right? And what he's able to save.

• 11:35Speaker 03

  Well, I'm saying maxing, right? If you're maxing, if both partners are maxing, I think that he's probably has a decent income and probably have been able to max out if you're already at 600K by 35. And to say, hey, we're only going to max out one 401K and only save, let's plus a little bit, we're going to get to 30 grand because we're all, we only want to get to five. God forbid we get to six. I don't think you should be taking your foot off the cast. Your people are not out there for your best interest because your wealth superseding them makes them feel like they're behind. So don't listen to them. Listen to your plan. And that's my takeaway.

• 12:13Speaker 02

  Okay. And I've got another person from Pennsylvania, Doug.

• 12:17Speaker 03

  Go Pennsylvania.

• 12:18Speaker 02

  Doug's in Pennsylvania and Doug says, you often talk about having three years of dry powder. I was wondering what the spend down strategy looks like on dry powder and what the market conditions would have to look like to start that spend down. For instance, if the market's down 20%, do you recommend using 100% dry powder for that year?

• 12:39Speaker 03

  Well, there are some rules of thumb here. The short answer, Doug, and again, if you're in retirement and you're, you're in withdrawal mode here and you need your assets for spending, then if you're down 5% market, that's totally normal garden variety. It happens all the time. So don't even think about shifting over to dry powder because the stock market is down five. Maybe as it gets down to 10% and we're in correction mode, you start to lean on your dry powder at least a little bit. And that's fine. But it's really meant for that 20% or greater decline to lean on your dry powder. You get to 20%, then you're really leaning on dry powder. Just also note though, that that

• 13:21Speaker 03

  formula isn't etched in stone. It's not perfect. It's a guideline because your tax situation may be slightly different, too. It depends on where your assets are, IRA versus non- IRA or brokerage versus Roth. So the second layer of consideration here is making sure you're still controlling your income. But for the most part, we go down 10, you start potentially using your dry powder. We go down 20, that's when you start to really lean in on it.

• 13:50Speaker 02

  Okay. We're going to take a quick break and when we come back, you're going to talk about the bear market that may be happening in our social lives.

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• 17:31Speaker 03

  Welcome back to Ask an Advisor. Wes Moss here with Krista DiBiase. Thanksgiving's coming up. How many people are coming to your house? Think about that. How many people are coming to your house, Krista Di?

• 17:42Speaker 02

  I'm leaving.

• 17:43Speaker 03

  Even better.

• 17:44Speaker 02

  I'm going on a trip. I'm going to Charleston. I'm very excited.

• 17:47Speaker 03

  Is it going to be lots of family or just you and a special someone?

• 17:53Speaker 02

  A special someone and some friends. I'm going to eat out on Thanksgiving and go to a concert. So, but my, yeah, my daughter is going to be out in Colorado, visiting friends. And yeah, so I'm going to do something early with my parents and my son at home before I leave and then I'm getting out of town.

• 18:12Speaker 03

  So family, then friends, family, then friends. The, here are the statistics. And we've talked about a friendship recession and it's something that I've talked a lot about in the retire sooner method because part of the retire sooner method is the maintaining and building of your community for your entire life. And it gets harder and harder. The headwinds get worse and worse the older we get. So we have to really work on maintaining relationships and friendships. And I have statistics I've talked about here, kind of the quick reminder is that the number of Americans with five or more close friends since 1990 has fallen by 25%, which is a massive number. The share of the United States

• 18:56Speaker 03

  adults with no close friends is all the way up to 18%. It's up 500% since 1990. The share of adults with more than one close friend or only one close friend has gone up. It's gone up by 64%.

• 19:16Speaker 03

  Retirees who say they have enough close friends, 41% of the group that's in the unhappy retiree camp said yes to that. But in the happy retiree camp, it was 81%. So clearly, and it's really hard to even argue this. We need socialization in our lives in order to have a happy retirement. And it's beyond just happy retirement. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics just came out with their ATUS study, the American Time Use Study, where they ask you to categorize your day. What are you doing? Are you eating? Are you sleeping? Are you on your phone? Are you playing video games? Are you working? Are you socializing?

• 19:59Speaker 03

  And this number really jumped out to me. And this is why I can say we officially have a bear market, meaning down 20% or more in socialization. In fact, overall, this is the whole data set. Over the past 20 years, daily socializing with a friend, and this is not family, this is with friends, fell from 45 minutes to 35 minutes, which is a 22% drop. It's the steepest. And then the steepest decline is from young folks. So here are a couple of other statistics. This is over the last 10 years. Americans 15 years and older, socialization dropped 41 to 35 minutes. It's a 15% decline. Over 20 years, it's a 22% decline.

• 20:44Speaker 03

  That's the bear market in socialization I'm talking about. Now, it's even worse for young people, Krista. And this is what jumped out at me. I think I first read this in the Wall Street Journal. Young people ages 15 to 24, in that same 20 year span, the last 20 years, used to socialize an hour a day, 60 minutes. Today, it's down to 35. That's a 42% drop.

• 21:09Speaker 02

  It must be the screens, right?

• 21:12Speaker 03

  Well, funny you should ask because the time study didn't just ask about socialization. It said, where did the time go? Leisure time spent on games and computers.

• 21:22Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 21:23Speaker 03

  That means video games, which by the way, we had in earnest 20 years ago as well. They are even better today. They're even more compelling and they're even more addictive today than they've ever been. And the numbers show it. There is a 48% increase in the amount of time that group spends playing video games over the last 20 years. All right. What's another reason for this? Well, gathering has dropped dramatically. Entertaining people at your home. And again, I don't know if these all make sense to me. Maybe they'll make sense to some folks, but think about this. In 1995, this is a long time span versus versus last year, has dropped 24%.

• 22:06Speaker 03

  So dinner parties down a quarter, down 25%. Attending church or a place of worship has also dropped dramatically, down almost 30% during that period of time. Now, this one's kind of funny that I would never have asked. Went on a picnic?

• 22:24Speaker 03

  Again, I've never gone on a picnic, I think, in my entire life. But I guess it was a pretty popular thing back in 1995 because 60% of people did it. Now, only about 39% of people do. So that's down 33%. God forbid, the disappearance of the picnic in America. And then just attending a club meeting of any club or organization, that's the biggest shocker, in my opinion, down 42%. So not only do we have a friendship decline, but we have a coinciding, just general decline of socialization, face to face, gathering time with friends, which is a component that is almost as, maybe not quite as important as family. But we need both in our lives.

• 23:08Speaker 03

  And here around this Thanksgiving period of time when you're with your family, think about the importance of not just your family, but your broader community. And if there was just one thing, one way to combat this, Krista, what would it be?

• 23:23Speaker 02

  My gosh, I mean, for me, it's like getting people together to play games, making appointments with your friends to go out to dinner. I mean, for kids that are playing video games, I was just thinking about this when you were talking about it. You know, you used to have to get together with your friends to play a two player game.

• 23:38Speaker 03

  That's a great point.

• 23:39Speaker 02

  Now they can just go online with a random stranger and play too. Like you can do all, club meetings. They probably might do something online or you're a part of a group on on social media.

• 23:48Speaker 03

  Wouldn't the answer be just to destroy all video games?

• 23:52Speaker 02

  Well, screens, like we all live in our screens. It's awful.

• 23:55Speaker 03

  I think the answer is be a joiner. And I talked to families about this. I had a couple the other day say, he's not a joiner. Literally, she said, he's not a joiner, which I love to hear because it's such a powerful word. She goes, I'm a joiner.

• 24:11Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 24:12Speaker 03

  Meaning that it doesn't matter what gathering place we choose, but whether it's a joining of a book club or a sport league, whether that's pickleball or joining a golf group or joining a yoga group or joining an exercise group or joining a cards group or joining a book club or joining a church or joining a volunteer group. Even for extroverts, this is hard. And the older we get, it really is not a super easy thing to do, is to say, I'm going to join a new group. Maybe there's a skill involved and you say, ah, I'm not that good at that skill or I'm not that good at this game or I'm not. And I've got to go meet a whole bunch of new people. Even for extroverted people, it's daunting and the older we get, it's harder. But that to me is perhaps

• 24:57Speaker 03

  the most powerful elixir to fight against this lack of socialization. Because once you get over the hump of saying, okay, I'm going to join. And you do, and you test out two or three groups in a given year. And this is the challenge I would give you. Post the 30 days of Thanksgiving, see if you can join one new group. For the next 30 days after Thanksgiving, talk about it at the dinner table. See if you can join one new group. And if you may not like it, and it may be the precursor to joining another group, but it is a really helpful, powerful thing to fight against the decline in community that we see literally now statistically from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And we need to fight against it.

• 25:39Speaker 02

  Okay, I like that advice. Here are some questions for you. This one's from MidCareer Mike in New York.

• 25:44Speaker 03

  Now, that's a name I love.

• 25:46Speaker 02

  I know.

• 25:46Speaker 03

  MidCareer Mike.

• 25:48Speaker 02

  He knows you. I have a 403B account with TIAA. They have a brokerage window which greatly expands the options for investing. However, all options are mutual funds and money market funds, no individual stocks and no ETFs. I'd like to build a bond ladder in this age of TARA, but representatives there-

• 26:08Speaker 03

  Which by the way, means he's referring to Tina was, there are no alternatives. There is no alternative to stocks. TARA means there are alternatives to stocks.

• 26:19Speaker 02

  But representatives there tell me it isn't possible to purchase individual new issue government bonds. How would you build a bond ladder in this case? Can you do it with mutual funds that serve as proxies for variable duration bonds? I don't really want to put them in my taxable brokerage accounts for a variety of reasons. And my IRA is too small to serve this purpose. I like TIAA, but I wish these institutional supportive retirement platforms had at least a little more flexibility in the instruments they offer people with long-term investing horizons.

• 26:52Speaker 03

  MidCareer Mike, most of them do. If you've got a brokerage link, is the usually the term for a retirement plan to allow you to have more flexibility? Usually the architecture is opened up, meaning you can, you can buy anything typically from the ones I know about. Stocks, mutual funds, individual bonds, ETFs, you name it. It just sounds like this is a super limited version of that. And if you're only able to do mutual funds, there are some, when it comes to finding a targeted date bond fund, not a target date fund, a targeted date bond fund, that's specific maturity, 2030, this matures. I've only used ETFs to do that.

• 27:33Speaker 03

  There are some mutual funds that do the same thing. I doubt they're available from what you're telling me to you. So it means that you probably don't have an option to nail your duration like you're wanting to on the bond side. What's the next best thing? Be really intentional around the term. Of your bond funds and every bond fund you pull it up on Morningstar or probably even within your 401k plan in the brokerage, like it should show you the duration and the duration is a measure of how long the average bond until it matures, plus how much you get as a coupon. And what you can do is have a short duration bond fund. It's not

• 28:18Speaker 03

  quite like having a 2029 or 2030 bond targeted portfolio, but it's somewhat close. And that's the way you can manage this because you'll also have intermediate versions of that and where the duration is a little longer. And then there'll be long-term bond mutual funds and you can, if you want to make the decision on that, that would give you a version of a bond ladder that is likely in an actively managed, or maybe these are index funds, which you can find too. But that's a closest way to try to accomplish what you're doing with what sounds like a really limited brokerage link.

• 28:52Speaker 02

  Okay. And on this next one, this is Dan in Oregon. Do you want me, I do want to know if you want me to name this and this alleged investment?

• 29:00Speaker 03

  Yeah. Let's say XYZ.

• 29:04Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 29:05Speaker 03

  But still make the name. I like that name. That's interesting.

• 29:07Speaker 02

  Dan in Oregon says, we've been approached about investing in XYZ cash cow NFTs. Are you familiar with this? And what are the pros and cons of this investment?

• 29:18Speaker 03

  Okay. Dan in Oregon, I think you don't mean NFTs because those are,

• 29:23Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 29:24Speaker 03

  The NFT is the tokenization of a painting or a image. You mean ETFs. And I know that because you said cash cow. That's kind of a brand, that's a branded ETF out in the universe that I wouldn't say I use these, but I know, I know of them relatively well. A cash cow ETF or any ETF, and I think this is a broader question where the name does matter because the name typically of an ETF or mutual fund is trying to give you a preview of the philosophy of the fund or the ETF. So this particular version, I'm relatively sure this is a ETF that's going to have a bunch of companies that are good about paying

• 30:08Speaker 03

  dividends and they may be rising dividends or they may have a really strong dividend track record. And in my opinion, that's a really good area of the marketplace to be looking at. Now, again, I'm not saying these exact ETFs are the specific ones. And I think we did the XYZ just to not put the name in there. But yes, that is absolutely a strategy that it can work. It's a little bit more of a conservative stock strategy or conservative equity strategy. Note that some of these dividend paying ETFs, the yields don't sound all that great right now, just because the overall yield on the S and P 500 is at a historic

• 30:49Speaker 03

  low. It's 1.2, one and a quarter percent, let's say. So a cash cow dividend ETF may only be at 2% or 2 and a quarter percent. So it's not a shockingly high amount of dividends from a yield perspective, but on a relative basis, that's how you have to look at it. So yes, I think it's a good area to be looking at.

• 31:10Speaker 02

  Okay. It makes me nervous when you says approach about investing in something like that always makes you nervous. Like who's approaching you with this investment, you know?

• 31:18Speaker 03

  Yeah, that's, that's true too.

• 31:19Speaker 02

  Okay. Lisa in Connecticut says, can you explain spousal Roth contributions? My husband is retiring soon and I will continue working. What are the rules for me to add to his Roth account?

• 31:31Speaker 03

  So Lisa, the two main rules are, one, you've got to just, you've got to be able to qualify for your adjusted gross income has to allow for Roth contribution. So because you're married, it would be the joint level. So as long as you're under the AGI max or limit, then that's test one. Test two, even though he may have zero income, as long as you have income that covers the amount you want to put in yours plus his, then technically you should be fine. But again, it does come back to you. It sounds like you guys are filing jointly or looking at your adjusted gross income as a couple still. That matters. And

• 32:14Speaker 03

  then making sure you have real wage income. And then that allows for you to put money into his Roth as a spousal contribution.

• 32:23Speaker 02

  Well, that does it for us today. Clark will be back with a new episode tomorrow. Again, you can send in questions to Wes at wesmoss.com/ask. Have a great rest of your day.

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