Pod Insights Big Technology Podcast Is OpenAI Ready To IPO?, The Datacenters in Space Myth, The Kids Boo AI About this episode Join us for the Big Technology AI Summit on June, 18, 2026. Get your tickets here: summit.bigtechnology.com.... Ranjan Roy from Margins is back for our weekly discussion of the latest tech news. We cover: 1) OpenAI's revenue numbers come out ahead of its potential IPO filing 2) Why is OpenAI considering going public now? 3) Is OpenAI trying to IPO ahead of Anthropic? 4) Is the Iran War accelerating the timeline of these fundraisings? 5) What would the top of the AI boom look like? 6) SpaceX files for an IPO 7) Are datacenters in space a myth? 8) Eric Schmidt gets booed at a college commencement 9) Meta's mass layoff 10) Meta's keystroke tracking rationale 11) Marc Andreessen says AI won't file a HR complaint
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Transcript 10,278 words · 3 speakers
0:00 Speaker 00 Is OpenAI ready to IPO? How about Anthropic? SpaceX is going public, but data centers in space might be a myth. And Eric Schmidt is booed loudly by the new grads, and maybe they have a point. That's coming up on a Big Technology Podcast Friday edition, right after this. This episode is brought to you by Genesis. What does it actually take to put a Gentic AI to work across an entire enterprise? I recently spoke with Genesis chairman and CEO Tony Bates about why orchestration is emerging as a competitive advantage in customer experience and what companies need to get right in the AI era. Then I sat down with Adam Mitchell, head of enterprise business solutions at Voya Financial, to go inside a large-scale agentic CX transformation, including the business decisions,
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1:18 Speaker 00 Welcome to Big Technology Podcast Friday Edition, where we break down the news in our traditional cool-headed and nuanced format. We have so much to cover for you today on a very big news week. We're going to talk about the new numbers that we're seeing from OpenAI and Anthropic as both seem to be ready to file to go public. SpaceX, of course, filed to go public this week. We'll take a look at the numbers and debate whether data centers in space are going to be a thing. And then, of course, it's commencement season, and what does that mean? Booing AI loudly. And we'll talk about what it means for the AI industry as public approval is as low as it's ever been. Joining us, as always, on Fridays is Ron John Roy of Margins. Ron John, great to see you.
1:59 Speaker 01 Eric Schmidt's getting booed and Elon Musk has found the largest addressable market in human history. I think we got a, we got a lot to talk about this week.
2:10 Speaker 00 So much to discuss. Yeah, the Schmidt boos, I mean, weren't the only boos about AI. We had three commencement so far where the speakers have mentioned AI and then actually seemed somewhat baffled by people booing them. So we'll get into that at the end of the show. But most importantly, I think we'll start talking about the numbers that we're seeing from OpenAI and Anthropic as both gear up towards filing for IPOs. Maybe even this year, we could potentially even see the paperwork for OpenAI come through as you and I record today, Ranjan. So that might come through, but we already have some insight into how the business is doing. And I think it's worth us discussing, A, how the business is doing, and also whether these are companies that should go public at all. All right. This
2:55 Speaker 00 is from the information. OpenAI generated nearly $6 billion in revenue in the first quarter boosted by Codex. OpenAI generated about $5.7 billion in revenue in Q1, nearly $1 billion more than arch rival Anthropic generated in the same period. But it's not all roses. OpenAI told investors that its adjusted operating income margin was negative 122% in the first quarter. That means for every dollar of revenue the company generated, it lost $1.22, even after excluding some large items such as stock-based compensation, according to one of the sources here. Ranjan, take us to the Wall Street side of things. You've spent time on trading desks. Is that bad? Is that bad?
3:39 Speaker 01 I honestly think I was watching on CNBC. They had like a Chiron, like something like OpenAI is OpenAI the new WeWork? I think, I mean, you know, like the margins that were actually, the operating income margin that was released was not that surprising to me. We all know they're losing money. Like, we know that their costs are exceeding their revenues. I guess like the fact that it's at the operating income level. You know, it's not good, but were you surprised by this kind of number?
4:13 Speaker 00 So actually, I want you to go a level deeper. So the surprising thing to some was that it was operating income. Right? So that's after you take away the things that typically make companies unprofitable. They were still unprofitable. So talk a little bit about the difference between operating income and what we would otherwise see. And whether that is a big deal, I'm actually hoping to learn from you on this one.
4:35 Speaker 01 Well, no, operating income still would include all the traditional things that go into like, what are the costs of goods sold, any kind of R and D, even like SG and A, like all the additional costs, people, salaries, that still will go into the operating income line. So it's not just like at that level. It's not that shocking that they're losing overall, you know, $1.22 off of every dollar it's generated. Again, it's not good. It's not good at all, but I think like from they've kind of outlined this business for a long time. What is really interesting, we're going to get into the anthropic numbers as well that the journal had reported on.
5:21 Speaker 01 It's so fascinating to me that we've all known for years now that they're burning money. But it's now going to actually just be directly provided to us how much they're burning and how what their business model actually looks like. Even though we've all kind of known this, it's funny, it's almost comical to me that like, now we get a number like this and people are actually kind of not freaking out, but they're certainly going to be questioning it a little bit more. And I do think, again, like as in the reporting, stock-based compensation was excluded in this. But that's not that uncommon. Obviously, like when you think about the economics of the business,
6:06 Speaker 01 it's definitely going to be an SBC heavy like profile in terms of all their employees. But Overall, I was not shocked by these numbers.
6:17 Speaker 00 Okay. And so I titled this episode, the beginning of the episode title is, is OpenAI ready to go public? And so the question is, why is it going public with these numbers? Right? The numbers look bad. And I think that the reason why, like typically what you'd want to do if you're a startup, and correct me if I'm wrong, but you want to get your economics in shape, you want to grow. And then when you start to turn profitable, and you can show a path to lots of profitability, which is what stockholders want, as soon as you can draw that line, that's when you hit the public markets. So why is OpenAI deciding that it's going to go public now?
6:57 Speaker 01 Alex, come on, come on.
7:00 Speaker 00 Was I too naive?
7:01 Speaker 01 Yeah, like, they can't, they just can't. I mean,
7:05 Speaker 00 They can't what?
7:07 Speaker 01 Get, when you're saying like, kind of get your financials in order, like, it's not a profitable business. We've all known this. Like, it's not, and is Anthropic profitable? We'll get into in a moment. But like, they have been telegraphing this forever. I think they can't just turn, I guess the biggest difference is that theory kind of held where there was the Uber, which again, it took them like, six years after IPOing to actually become truly profitable at like, a unit economics level. But like, the thesis had been, you spend on sales and marketing to grow, but once you have those users and they're sticky,
7:49 Speaker 01 you can just kind of like, turn off the sales and marketing spigot, and then suddenly you're profitable. And that's what you do ahead of an IPO. But as we've said, the economics of a general or an AI company are just fundamentally different than software. That like, it's more akin to industrial companies or something, because you're paying for the compute costs. So the resources in can scale linearly or somewhat linearly with your actual revenue. So I think that's the biggest difference that, like, the, they, no one has figured out the business model. And it's this week, actually, I think was a pretty big one, because it became clear.
8:30 Speaker 00 Okay, so this is going to be the punchline of my question, which is if OpenAI is clearly not ready, then why IPO now? I think your answer was premised on this idea that like, all right, well, it's natural to IPO now. They just raised 122 billion.
8:48 Speaker 01 Okay, okay.
8:49 Speaker 00 So why IPO now? And that's where, let me give, let me give my perspective and then you can sort of rebut me here.
8:55 Speaker 01 Got it.
8:56 Speaker 00 I think it is entirely a result of Anthropic's success. So you have a couple of curves that are running in parallel right now. So you have OpenAI, which made more money than Anthropic, but Anthropic's revenue and user growth, it seems like has, as well as revenue in particular, has accelerated faster. We have this Wall Street Journal story telling us mind blowing growth is about to propel Anthropic into its first profitable quarter, right? So they're going to make 10.9 billion in the second quarter. And the Journal says it's an explosive rate of growth that will help it turn an operating profit for the first time. So OpenAI is the leader, but Anthropic is gaining quickly, right? And I think what OpenAI wants to avoid
9:38 Speaker 00 is Anthropic going public with its rapid rate of growth, that by the way, doesn't seem like it's sustainable. And that's part of this profitability thing, that Anthropic is profitable now, but it would prefer to be unprofitable because it would prefer to be building to meet that demand. Remember a couple of weeks ago, we heard from Dario Amode, who said, you know, we, the man grew 80x and we really wouldn't like some more normal growth. OpenAI has been building in a way that Anthropic has said is reckless. Dario called it YOLO-ing, and they're going to be able to meet that demand. So when is the window to go public? The window to go public is before Anthropic, because Anthropic, if Anthropic goes before you and that story hasn't played out entirely, it's going to look like they are growing faster
10:21 Speaker 00 and it's going to be much more difficult to tell your story to Wall Street that, oh yeah, they're leading us now, but because of our bets on infrastructure, we'll be able to lap them. You'd much rather just go before him, for them and set the narrative, or otherwise you might have to wait three or four years to IPO and I don't know if OpenAI has that long. That's my theory.
10:38 Speaker 01 I agree. I actually do. I think it was in our Discord chat for somewhat, one of our listeners that actually made the comment that. You need to view everything these companies do as who can get out to market first. Like, that's it. And I would say the last two months, that's everything I read through that lens. Uh, space and SpaceX has already filed their S1. And oh, my God, we can get into those numbers this week.
11:07 Speaker 00 We will get into those numbers.
11:08 Speaker 01 Oh, my God, those numbers are something else. Um, but so they have already filed their S1 and have positioned themselves squarely in the AI camp. Like, this is not a space company anymore. This is an AI company. Um, so they're already getting out there and Elon Musk is Elon Musk-ing in ways that we can only just sit back and marvel at. Um, I think so between OpenAI and Anthropic, the craziest part of this whole thing to me is like, going public is not, it feels like this end state for these two companies, or, but that it's supposed to just be a financing event that gets you
11:50 Speaker 01 going to the next level. They don't need to IPO in theory when you can raise $120 billion. As we said, I think it's five or six times bigger than the biggest capital raise in an IPO ever. Their OpenAI's last funding.
12:06 Speaker 00 Yeah, about four times bigger.
12:07 Speaker 01 Yeah. So like, I agree. It's still always been baffling to me. Is the goal just to provide liquidity to all investors onto retail? I mean, maybe that's it, but, but I think, but, but I do agree. They, it does feel like this almost desperate race to get out first. And I mean, again, the cynical read on that is just to reward all investors and employees by pushing the stock of these companies onto retail in this weird desperate way that makes it feel like they don't actually feel they're worth what they are.
12:44 Speaker 00 Yeah, exactly. I mean, if you really believed in the exponentials, would you be doing that? But I again, like if you think about-
12:50 Speaker 01 It's not a rush. It's not a rush then.
12:52 Speaker 00 But this is the thing. If you, here's the argument. If you believe in the exponentials, you're gonna believe you're gonna need more money to build infrastructure, right? Yes, it's just, you know, a one-time financing event, but you could get a lot of money from this IPO. And you need to be smart about where you get the money, right? And so if you believed in the exponential, you would wanna take the biggest possible funding round you can. You look around, right? Again, we've talked about this on the show. The Gulf States might not be into funding OpenAI and Anthropic right now. Remember Dario said, "We're gonna go back on some of our values and take Gulf State money"? What happened to that? That round, I mean, the big Gulf State round never materialized. Maybe some came in in some ways. And so then you have to go public. Then you have to go public.
13:34 Speaker 00 And when you, if you do that, it's important to get the most money you can, the best valuation you can. Cause after that, you don't really have, you know, another IPO that you can do. And so what OpenAI is doing, I'm pretty sure, is they're looking around and they're like, "Now or three years from now? We might not have three years from now. We need that money. We need to be on the market. We can't let Anthropic go first, set the narrative, and then have to like sheepishly follow them with our stats not looking as good because this rotation into our products, because we have the infrastructure, hasn't fully happened. And that's, to me, what's going on right here.
14:10 Speaker 01 Okay, I had forgotten your theory, which actually makes this all make sense to me. That the Gulf States are not gonna be available to be that final, final tranche of financing or the next few rounds even, especially with the Iran war. Yeah, yeah.
14:27 Speaker 00 Have you seen what's happened to Qatar?
14:30 Speaker 01 I mean-
14:30 Speaker 00 They're, they're stuck. Their natural gas is, is on hold because of the Strait of Hormuz.
14:36 Speaker 01 No, no, you're, you're right. You're right. So, I mean, it is crazy to me that- Is that singularly causing this kind of like almost panic? And I think you could be right because it's almost again, like SpaceX is targeting a raise between forty and eighty billion dollars. That sounds big. That's like a regular Wednesday for private market financing for OpenAI or any of these companies. Like it's gotten so stupid. So, but you're right that that actually that makes things make more sense.
15:11 Speaker 00 Now, Anthropic is in a really interesting position again, and I want to go back to this profitability here. Profitable also means like, you know, you're, you're making more money than you're spending on the build out, which like if you're trying to hit that Goldilocks zone of building out enough to keep growing without mortgaging the company or without going bankrupt, you actually underbuilt if you're profitable. That's the logic. And so I'm curious, Ron, on what you think about Anthropic in this situation.
15:38 Speaker 01 Okay, so the Wall Street Journal reporting again, like the numbers you start to see 4.8 billion in sales in Q1. That's supposed to more than double to 10.9 billion dollars in the second quarter. Now, we are only about halfway through the second quarter. So already we're in extrapolation land. There's been a lot of growth, but we all know Codex show of five point who showed up from OpenAI recently. I've seen endless chatter around people actually switching over from Anthropic. So the idea that it's going to be a straight line or not even straight line.
16:19 Speaker 01 I'm guessing it looks more like an exponential curve to 10.9 billion, I think, is ambitious when we're only halfway through the quarter. Again, in any other situation where you're looking to go public, they would be providing backward looking numbers, not predictive of the next quarter and a half. But let's get into that profit. They say they're going to turn an operating profit of 559 million in the quarter, ending at the end of June. So I gotta give Ed Zitron credit on this one. I feel like I go back and forth. Sometimes he's certainly a little too bearish and negative on the industry that I do I work in myself.
17:01 Speaker 01 But like, this is where he's great. So in the SpaceX S1 document, they talk about how Anthropic has agreed, and this is one of the big like revenue boosters for them, to spend 1.25 billion dollars per month through May 2029. But they explicitly say in May and June 2026, it is at a reduced fee. We don't know what that reduced fee is, but that reduced fee could be zero. And this is honestly like the fact that they specified May and June 2026 are the reduced fee.
17:41 Speaker 01 Suddenly, the Wall Street Journal gets this leaked investor prospectus saying that Anthropic is gonna be profitable for this quarter ending. And then even adding the kind of like, this does not guarantee profitability in future quarters. This, I don't want to go full conspiracy theory, but like, if you just think Anthropic going to SpaceX, hey, guys, you guys are going to IPO. How about we commit to, I think, 15 or no, no, like 28 billion dollars in spend for your business and be the first gigantic customer that's a long-term revenue. All we need from you is you cut us a deal on the next two months.
18:26 Speaker 01 Give it to us for significantly discounted free to make our numbers look good. And everybody's happy. And that's what it looks like to me.
18:35 Speaker 00 But, okay, this is all predicated on the idea that Anthropic wants to show profitability. Why would they want to show profitability? That means that they miscalculated their build out.
18:46 Speaker 01 No, no, it's Wall Street. It's what you will. No, you will still appreciate profitability. You appreciate control over your business. Like, I still think that they missed the build out narrative. It's gonna, it's not gonna be the dominant one going into as these companies go public. The, the losing money again, the fact that that operating income margin actually surprised people is just a reminder that people have kind of been closing their eyes, even though we all kind of know they're losing a lot of money. It's gonna move back to that and Anthropic knows that. And that's why they very smartly and tactfully were able to not only come up with these numbers,
19:32 Speaker 01 but leak them to the Wall Street Journal and get the reporting.
19:36 Speaker 00 I don't buy it. I mean, I, I definitely accept it as a theory, but it seems to me that-
19:42 Speaker 01 Why May and June?
19:45 Speaker 00 That is a good question. Okay.
19:46 Speaker 01 Why?
19:47 Speaker 00 I don't know the answer to that.
19:48 Speaker 01 Why, why, why, why reduced fee for May and June only?
19:51 Speaker 00 So your, your contention is basically that this was a ploy to leak some numbers, to say, OpenAI is YOLOing, our revenue is accelerating, we're gonna be profitable. So buy our IPO that we haven't announced yet.
20:10 Speaker 01 Not, not only to leak numbers, to go to the market with those numbers. There, if they file their S1 sometime going into June 30th, suddenly you're going in as a profitable company. It changed, and as we said, get like, if they go out with that narrative, OpenAI can be shouting from the background, but they didn't get their compute right. They're not investing. And everyone will look at them and like, how much money are you losing? It's, it's, I mean, it's, it's kind of brilliant, but-
20:43 Speaker 00 I do think, yeah. All right, maybe it is this boss move to just be like, listen, like, they are, you know, they, they might tell the world that they're gonna have this infrastructure advantage on us. They're losing a dollar, 22 cents every dollar they spend. We've shown an ability to be profitable. Go with us.
21:01 Speaker 01 The market will love that over the, the alternative.
21:06 Speaker 00 Like I told you, that's the way that it should be done, except if you're making tricks to do it. So let me just ask you-
21:12 Speaker 01 Oh yeah, you're right, you're right, you're right, that is.
21:16 Speaker 00 The dream lives, except maybe not exactly in this format. Doesn't that catch up to the company? Like, let's say they do go public and, you know, they sort of had this sort of sweetheart deal. You're gonna eventually like, think about if you're in Dario's perspective, you're gonna go public, you're gonna get that money. Do you want to be the CEO of a company that's just gonna have that on your back, being like they never got back to that point?
21:38 Speaker 01 That's what I genuinely is still surprising to me. I mean, I think the drying up of Middle Eastern money and Gulf state sovereign wealth is like possibly the impetus for it, but I agree, like, it's still like the feeling of urgency. When they've been raising this much money, when it's not gonna be in aggregate, that much more money, like in pure additional financing for any of these companies. But it will be a shifting of who owns all of that to public market investors, which is a much larger capital pool. But like, why that that feeling of like,
22:22 Speaker 01 I mean, not desperation, but just that race to IPO still back. It's still weird. It still feels weird to me.
22:30 Speaker 00 So I think the question needs to be asked, and I don't think that this is the case, but we should at least talk it through. Maybe they're seeing a top. And, you know, I think that's kind of had like heretical to say, but like, let's at least explore it. So where could the top be? We talked about OpenAI making this pivot to Codex and we asked if it was coming from a position of strength. And you could say, well, maybe not if the consumer chat GPT doesn't have much further to grow. This is from the information article. OpenAI faces another challenge, growing chat GPT usage. OpenAI's weekly active users for the quarter averaged about 905 million users. Although the company hit about 920 million weekly active users in February,
23:16 Speaker 00 the lower average figure for the quarter implies that usage during the rest of the quarter was weaker than the February snapshot. The company expected to hit a billion weekly active users by the end of last year, but warned employees to expect rough vibes as consumer AI rival Google made gains with its Gemini chatbot.
23:35 Speaker 00 Ooh, I don't know, that's that's potentially rough for OpenAI if it just can't grow ChatGPT. It's seen some contraction. What do you think?
23:45 Speaker 01 I mean, I think it is, it is and it isn't because isn't this the company that is now going to focus maniacally on the enterprise, which if that's the case, then I mean, who cares about your 920 million active users or 905 or whatever it is like, and again, is the entire game going to be codex like, I don't, do you think, do you think they're going to still go, do you think they go into IPO with a dominant story still being consumer plus enterprise, even after they told us it's going to be enterprise?
24:20 Speaker 00 I think it's going to be enterprise. And I think again, and this is something I've brought up in all of my interviews recently is, you know, a lot of the growth of generative AI has been on the back of like novel uses that's gotten people interested in the technology and sort of established a baseline behavior, but hasn't exactly become the norm. Like I think we're still searching for like, what is the key use of generative AI? And remember where we've seen these spikes, image generation, voice generation, and now this agentic stuff. The question is, what is going to be the mainstream use that everybody goes for and is intuitive and useful for everyone? And, you know, that we don't know whether the codex and Claude
25:02 Speaker 00 codes are going to be that type of mainstream use, or whether there are another flash in the pan?
25:09 Speaker 01 I still, I don't know, I guess it's still how you define like just day to day search, I consider to be the killer use case, like day to day information gathering and retrieval, knowledge partner. I mean, I don't know, everyone actually, I don't know if this is like depressing or romantic or something in between. But like the other day, my wife and I were sitting at like separate ends of our couch and we were both dictating into our computers and we were both like whisper flowing into like our, our computers. And
25:49 Speaker 01 I'm like, yeah, I know, but you have to do it, especially at a lower voice because you're like, uh, cause you don't want to whisper into the other person's AI. But this was like, it's just-
26:02 Speaker 00 Seen it in my head.
26:04 Speaker 01 I know. Then I kind of look over and I'm like, oh my God, are you, are you whispering too? That she, she got it from me. She always saw me dictating and then, uh, like it's ingrained in everyone I know. My parents, like, like it's just, the chat experience is already there.
26:23 Speaker 00 But that should be reflected. That's what I'm saying. That should be reflected in the, in the billion users of chat GPT. Right? So it's just taking longer to get there than anticipated. I'm just making this case.
26:34 Speaker 01 Yeah, I know, but it's nine hundred, nine hundred twenty million users. What do you want?
26:40 Speaker 00 Come back to me with a billion. Yeah. Again, again, the word that has been used is exponential. If it's true exponential growth, that's where it should be. If that's what you're pitching Wall Street, that's where it should be. So that, maybe if that's leveling off, that's what I'm saying. Thinking about through the, the, um, thinking through the impetus to go public, maybe it's like, all right, well, this is probably the best story we're ever going to tell. Let's go.
27:01 Speaker 01 Do you think there's been no real numbers around the actual compute utilization or total queries? Per user, anything like that, that you've seen, is there?
27:14 Speaker 00 Just from, uh, Google, Google gave this week, uh, they're now processing three quadrillion tokens.
27:23 Speaker 00 It's gone.
27:24 Speaker 01 That does.
27:24 Speaker 00 Nine point seven trillion to three point two quadrillion per month in two years, according to Sundar Pichai. Who, by the way, I mean, I, I, I won't pile on, but it was a fairly underwhelming Google I O, kind of as we expected. No big, not a real big moment for them. But anyway, let's put that aside.
27:41 Speaker 01 Well, does that, does that include? See already that theirs is a little different because they can just route, which they are increasingly doing. Uh, traditional Google search to AI mode and everyone who is just using Google search is now ending up whether they want to or not using AI. So I, that one still doesn't feel as real to me like, or important or relevant. Like to me, I want to know. Are people out of those 920 million users, are they using it significantly more today on average than they were three months ago or six months ago?
28:18 Speaker 00 Yeah, no, that would be good stats.
28:20 Speaker 01 That matters to me. Yeah.
28:21 Speaker 00 Yeah. Okay. Just floating it out there. How about, how about canceling Claude code when you see the money stack up? We've heard from Uber, for instance, talking about how they like exhausted their Claude budget in four months. Many other companies are also talking about the ROI here and, and Microsoft, interestingly, although maybe this isn't indicative of Claude, but Microsoft, according to The Verge, starts canceling Claude code license licenses. Microsoft first started opening up access to Claude code in December. It was part of an effort to get product manager, project managers, designers and other employees to experiment with coding for the first time. Microsoft is now planning to remove most of its Claude code licenses and push many
29:02 Speaker 00 of its developers to use Copilot CLI instead. Here's what Chamath says about this, and then we'll turn to you. He goes, "Microsoft pulling Claude is the first, but not the last. The issue isn't that the tool isn't useful. The issue is that without context and oversight, the tool can spin forever and generate an enormous cost burden that, when cascaded across an entire employee population, makes using the tool economically untenable." Again, like thinking like, well, is this the top? Like, if you were going to talk about Anthropic that way, maybe they're just like, oh, people are going to come get religion about the amount of tokens they're spending and our growth rate's going to slow. I don't know, feasible?
29:41 Speaker 01 I, okay, I think we're starting to maybe put together a semi-coherent theory across all this. I'm not getting, I'm not going to give us full coherence.
29:52 Speaker 00 These companies are going to both get a trillion dollars. They're going to get trillion dollar market caps. They're going to raise all the money in the world. And we're here like, why are they in a bad position? But hey, this is our job.
30:04 Speaker 01 I'm going to give you kind of what I've been seeing happening over the past six months. And it was interesting that this article specifically references this time period of the last six months, is that Claude code kind of gets released and starts picking up. It is a revolutionary product. And then every there, no one has even thought about token budgets ever. Everyone is allowed to use it who's given access as much as they want. Every software engineer specifically just cranks out whatever they want. Usage explodes, revenue explodes. And then in the, but it's an experimental time.
30:48 Speaker 01 There's been a lot of, I've been seeing around and a lot of discussions I've been having around, even trying to attribute ROI or measure even individual productivity. Was it actually in line with the, the costs associated with it? People are starting to severely question. So you're starting to see this, you, I mean, again, we went from token maxing, which we all knew was this kind of point in time that we'll always look back at and be like, what were we thinking? But it was, I mean, it was just that moment that everyone's like, okay, we're, we're really running with this. This is something new and different. Everyone needs to be using it. And then everyone stopped and was like, holy shit, how much does it cost? And it was, we know it's heavily subsidized anyways.
31:32 Speaker 01 So like, when you put all of that together, you start seeing all of this happening. Even Chamath, like to me, and this is like at writer, the type of stuff we're working on. We have our own foundation models, but interoperability, model routing based on request, being model provider agnostic on the foundation model side is where I see this going. It's not going to be one month. And I mean, we've talked about this for a long time. One model to rule them all. Systems that can route and Chamath talking about, I rarely agree with Chamath. But I mean, like if different models, we're already seeing it like if it's video, like VO is very expensive. So seed dancer cling, or depending on the type of request and complexity,
32:17 Speaker 01 routing to a different model is the way I see things going. And I do think it like the, the, the graph of revenue growth for Claude for the last six months, we will never see again. It was just something where no one, yeah, no one was checking anything. No one cared. And now suddenly they all stopped and were like, oh, wait, what are we doing?
32:41 Speaker 00 Okay, great. So now let's just end this segment with three questions for you. First, do you think, so I have now brought out the best arguments I could to, you know, sort of say this might be the top. Is this the top?
32:59 Speaker 01 Define top.
33:02 Speaker 00 Well, I won't. Actually, just answer it the way that you're thinking.
33:06 Speaker 01 I, well, it's more, again, like, I genuinely believe over a multi-year period, overall AI is going to become, maybe not Elon Musk's $28.5 trillion TAM for SpaceX, but something dramatic. But I think we're going to start to see that, like, going from $4 billion to $10.9 billion estimated, I don't think they're going to get to $10.9 billion. And I know cla- Anthropic has proved everyone wrong, but the last six months were something different, and it's already stopped. And we've been, I've been seeing that it's being reported on now. So I don't think it, that kind of, like, growth that has never been
33:48 Speaker 01 seen before in the history of, I think, like, any company anywhere is going to continue in the same way it was. So I think we are at a top of that kind of movement and momentum.
34:00 Speaker 00 Right. I mean, if you continue to see the type of growth that Anthropic has seen, like, in three years from now, they would be the entire stock market, right? It's like, yeah, this 10x-ing every year the way that they are is crazy. But I, so I get that. It's like, not the top, but it's the end of the acceleration curve, which would, of this particular acceleration curve, which would indicate to me that it would be the perfect time to go public, because that's what you want to show the market. You don't want to show the deceleration, you want to show the acceleration. Market likes those type of curves. And that's going to lead me into these next two questions, which is, are these companies ready to go public? So let's start with OpenAI. Is OpenAI ready to go public?
34:47 Speaker 01 I think I'm still, I'm gonna say yes, because I think they're ready to go public as they'll ever be. And the story that they're gonna have to tell the market and the market is gonna have to buy is one of, we are over investing in compute and everyone else is gonna be screwed and we're gonna be in a good place. And so they, they're, they're as ready as they'll ever be. What about you?
35:13 Speaker 00 I agree.
35:14 Speaker 01 Okay.
35:14 Speaker 00 Is it, I agree. This is a rare moment of full agreement. Me and you, I'll take it. Okay. Anthropic, is Anthropic ready to go public?
35:23 Speaker 01 I mean, with that SpaceX accounting stuff, they better be. And if you're, you put it all together, you get selective leak to the Wall Street Journal, a little S1 filing only revealing from an Edzitron blog post, some potential shenanigans. I think you, you've put everything in place. We've talked about it a lot. They are, I mean, for the, the kind of like high level narrative of just kind of like, research lab, nice guys, they are a communications maestro. So it seems like they're tying this all together. So they better go now.
36:05 Speaker 00 Yeah. I think I really should just title this episode, are Anthropic and, and OpenAI, or are, are OpenAI and Anthropic ready to go public? But yeah, I agree with you also. Make it happen. Do it. And also honestly, like, this is such an important cog of the economy that whether they're ready or not, they should just do it, right? For the public, it's sort of like important for us to get a look into these numbers. So instead of like guessing, like, should Oracle be worth triple or zero? We can just kind of have a much better understanding. So I'm all in favor of it.
36:36 Speaker 01 That's why they should, that's why they should do it for the public.
36:39 Speaker 00 If you really cared about safety and the good of the people that you're building AI for, go public. So we can see whether you're BSing us or not. That is my pitch. I think they'll listen.
36:53 Speaker 01 I mean, bringing, what did Sam say? He wants to deliver magic at hyperscale. This is how you do it, Sam. It's how you do it. Open the books.
37:03 Speaker 00 Show us the books.
37:04 Speaker 01 Show us the books.
37:05 Speaker 00 We're in complete agreement here. All right, folks. Well, if you want an even deeper dive or a similar, actually a somewhat different perspective on this from someone who's actually brought a company public that had high expectations, tune in on Wednesday where ex Twitter CEO Dick Costolo and I will go through the OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX IPOs and what is going to happen to these companies and their employees once they hit the public market. All right, we've done two. We've done OpenAI and Anthropic where we got one left. We got SpaceX and judging from Ron John's earlier comments, you're not going to want to miss his reaction to the numbers that we saw in the filing to go public from that company, which we're going to cover right after this.
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40:20 Speaker 00 And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast Friday Edition. Let's dig in to this delectable SpaceX S1 that prospectus to go public. This from Bloomberg. SpaceX shows a $4.3 billion loss as Musk targets a record IPO. SpaceX filed publicly for what stands to be the largest ever initial public offering, revealing billions in losses in super voting share plan, a super voting share plan allowing Elon Musk to keep the company under its control. SpaceX had a net loss of $4.28 billion on revenue of $4.69 billion for the first quarter compared with a net loss of $528 million on revenue of about $4 billion a year earlier.
41:02 Speaker 00 You know, I was, I was asked to go on CNBC to talk about this stuff this week. We didn't actually get to the SpaceX segment. We talked mostly about OpenAI and Anthropic, but I went deep into the numbers here. And the more I looked, the more angry I got. And Ranjan, I get the sense that you have a similar feeling.
41:20 Speaker 01 I don't know if I'm angry. It's more like I was shocked. So, okay, so OpenAI at 120, negative 122% operating income margin. I'm weirdly okay with that. SpaceX at a total of $18.7 billion in revenue, of which 11 billion is Starlink, and that's the whole thing. And it's a $2 trillion company. I just, I don't know what, how we got here. I thought this was such a bigger thing, a bigger like vehicle of
42:01 Speaker 01 capital and cash and everything that I, this, this genuinely shocked me. What was your reaction?
42:09 Speaker 00 I'll explain why I was mad. Maybe annoyed is probably the better term.
42:14 Speaker 01 Be mad, be mad, be mad.
42:15 Speaker 00 I'll be mad. I'll be mad. Fine. Screw it. This is my mad face.
42:21 Speaker 00 Okay, so this is what annoyed me. SpaceX told us that it had the biggest total addressable market of all time, $28.5 trillion. That was the market. Okay, so I'm thinking, you know, you're gonna go to space and do all these things, build the Mars colony. What is the biggest sort of revenue driver there? 93% of those opportunity, of that opportunity is AI, with enterprise applications accounting for the vast majority. So SpaceX thinks of this 26.5, wait, 28 trillion dollar, 28.5 trillion dollar TAM.
43:02 Speaker 00 22.7 trillion is AI enterprise applications. What? I mean, this is like, this is, this wasn't your business a year ago. Now you acquire XAI and all of a sudden AI enterprise business applications are what you're gonna do? Obviously, like, your, your Grok AI application has trailed Google, Anthropic and OpenAI. You're not seeing anywhere near the level of business. And I'm just saying that not as a hater, I'm looking at the numbers. You're trailing those businesses dramatically, losing money.
43:39 Speaker 00 You're just not in position to capture this $22.7 trillion. Now, maybe you could say our business is going to be data centers in space. But I don't believe in data centers in space. If you have something go wrong in a data center, which by the way, everything industrial, you have stuff go wrong all the time, you send a technician. If you have something go wrong in a space data center, you have to send an astronaut.
44:05 Speaker 00 I'm just not anywhere close to sold that that is going to happen. And that SpaceX has this 20 plus trillion dollar total addressable market that it's going to capture. You just rented your AI warehouse, Glossus One, to Anthropic. So are you a NeoCloud? Are you a builder? It's hard to really wrap your head around the story here.
44:27 Speaker 01 Even SpaceX, what was kind of fascinating to me is that the actual like space segment was, which is the one that has made money over time, which has still been declining overall and actually like, you know, renting out your, or building rocket ships for others to launch. All of the growth is supposed to come from Starship, which is actually not even started yet and is just pure R and D, but still forecasting out all this growth. Obviously Starlink, Starlink is very profitable. It's like 11.7 in revenue, 4.4 in profit, billion in profit. So it's a very profitable business. But then those aren't even the key parts of the story.
45:11 Speaker 01 It's just a very vague kind of picture of AI with, again, I still, this one was all worth it just for the line that it's like the, what was it? The largest actionable, largest addressable market in human history. Just for that line, this is worth it, though.
45:32 Speaker 00 I mean, do you believe in data centers in space? Do you think that's going to happen?
45:36 Speaker 01 It could, but normally you would do that and then IPO.
45:43 Speaker 00 Now I'm going to say, don't be ridiculous. Don't be ridiculous, Ronchon.
45:48 Speaker 01 I know. Okay, fair.
45:49 Speaker 00 What planet are we living? You must be in space.
45:52 Speaker 01 Yeah. You're right, because instead, what you would do is buy Twitter, have its revenue drop by half. And then, and then also launch a very successful, innovative satellite internet company. And then IPO and then build your first data center in space.
46:15 Speaker 00 Yeah, I mean, Jeff Bezos thinks it's gonna happen. He talked about it on CNBC this week. He said the two to three year timeline is a little ambitious, but Blue Origin, which is his space company, recently submitted plans to the FCC to send 51,600 data center satellites into low earth orbit as part of an initiative dubbed, do you think, Project Sunrise? Okay, I'm reading this now. All right, maybe Elon and Bezos can do it, or they just send them. They have some sort of networking. They're all satellites up there. They're off earth. They're cooled by space and they can somehow.
46:49 Speaker 01 Do you think people are gonna protest that? Do you think people protest the space?
46:54 Speaker 00 Data centers in space?
46:55 Speaker 01 Data centers in space?
46:58 Speaker 00 Probably. People protest everything.
47:00 Speaker 01 I know, that's what I was like.
47:02 Speaker 00 The Park Slope Food Co-op down the block from me is getting protested, so.
47:06 Speaker 01 Oh, really?
47:07 Speaker 00 I don't know.
47:07 Speaker 01 Wait, why?
47:08 Speaker 00 Yeah. Oh, international politics, of course. Because no one, no one really sends a message on international politics like a grocery store.
47:17 Speaker 01 Now, a co-op in Park Slope.
47:21 Speaker 00 That's right. It must stand for us, right?
47:23 Speaker 01 I was thinking like, maybe data centers in space is gonna be my, should that be our entire political platform? Because it does solve a lot of the challenges that are surrounding data centers. And it seems like actually this perfect answer to it. It's still funny, just because like, I actually am excited to see why it angers people. I don't know, maybe there's like. Space purists. I don't know. I'm sure there could be.
47:56 Speaker 00 Here's my, I mean, 51,000 Jeff Bezos satellites up there. That's the thing. Like, it's all fun and games until an astronaut dies because they hit your data center in space. Like, could you imagine, like, the reaction of the public when, like, we lose a spaceship? Because we decided to make Studio Ghibli's in space instead of in Indiana.
48:20 Speaker 01 You're right. Maybe, maybe I'm gonna get into space junk. I'm gonna go the other way. Space junk is bad.
48:27 Speaker 00 Let's boo it. Let's boo it.
48:29 Speaker 01 Yeah, stop the space junk.
48:31 Speaker 00 That talks about data centers in space. Rondo and I will be out there booing.
48:35 Speaker 01 Signs up. Yeah, no more space junk.
48:39 Speaker 00 All right. So, speaking of the commencement addresses, I think we should talk about this. Where Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, was booed this week at the University of Arizona's graduation ceremony. Not only him, there was a woman named Gloria Caulfield, a real estate executive, who gave the commencement at University of Central Florida, and she was booed. And then this guy, I love this guy, Scott Borchetta, the CEO of Big Machine Records. He got booed and he kind of yelled at the graduates at Middle Tennessee State University. He goes, "Deal with it. Like I said, it's a tool." Just kind of mouthing off at these graduates. Further evidence of AI's reputation problem, which we've been talking about, it seems like it's really hitting a fever pitch now, right?
49:22 Speaker 01 Oh, I think, I mean, it's still interesting to me that, like, why do you, why is Eric Schmidt speaking at this commencement and why does he bring this up? Like, if that part is still kind of just odd to me in general, and also are people specifically, do you think they're booing Eric Schmidt or AI or both?
49:43 Speaker 00 I mean, both, but more AI. I mean, you watch the speech every time.
49:46 Speaker 01 He's very booable. Eric Schmidt is very booable. Yeah.
49:49 Speaker 00 Every time AI comes up, say what you want about Eric Schmidt, every time AI comes up, that's where the boos get really loud. And you had two other examples. So, it's, they're booing AI. This was something that I thought was interesting from Bucocapitalblog, which is a fun follow on Twitter. One of things is, one of three things is true about big tech's AI narrative. One, nobody can tell a compelling story about how AI will be good for society. Two, it hasn't occurred to them to tell that story. Or three, they believe it'll be bad, but it's not their job to fix it. And I don't know what's more damning.
50:20 Speaker 01 Oh, I, yeah, I agree.
50:22 Speaker 00 Doesn't that capture it all?
50:23 Speaker 01 No, no, yeah, it does. It does. And I think, I mean, we've talked about this a lot. AI has a PR problem. You wrote about it today. I think like, it's still baffling to me, but this is where Dario going out saying there's going to be a decimation of jobs. No one painting an actual like a kind of positive picture of what this looks like or how, how does, how does the world get better? No one has actually painted that picture. I mean, the meta layoff stuff this week, did you read about it?
50:58 Speaker 00 So dystopian. Talk about it.
51:00 Speaker 01 Yeah. Well, so, so Meta, I think it was 8,000 people.
51:05 Speaker 00 That's 10% of the workplace.
51:07 Speaker 01 Do they call them medins or anything like that?
51:09 Speaker 00 Meta mates, meta mates.
51:11 Speaker 01 Oh God, do they still do that? Is that real?
51:13 Speaker 00 Yeah. Well, the 8,000 are no longer meta mates anymore. If that's one consolation to that.
51:18 Speaker 01 No longer meta mates. I, but there was leaked audio of the
51:23 Speaker 00 Yes, you gotta talk about this.
51:25 Speaker 01 This one was incredible. And like, come on, Mark Zuckerberg's communications team. I know he's not listening to you right now, but still try to explain to him how bad this line of messaging is.
51:41 Speaker 00 This was internal. This was internal, but it was leaked. Okay. Can we have the exact, I'll read the language because we have the exact.
51:48 Speaker 01 Read the language, read the language, please.
51:50 Speaker 00 They were asking about being, you know, so there's like this narrative, okay, Meta is monitoring all the keystrokes. Some people are like, they monitored my keystroke, then they laid me off because they know how I do my job. This is how Zuckerberg explained it to the company. The AI models learn from watching really smart people do things. The average intelligence of the people who are at this company is significantly higher than the average set of people that you can get to do the tasks. So if we're trying to teach the model coding, for example, then having people internally build tools or solve tasks that help teach the model how to code, we think it's going to dramatically increase our model's coding ability faster than what others in the industry have the capabilities to do. Who don't have thousands and thousands of extremely strong engineers at their company.
52:30 Speaker 00 All right. I'll just say that that sounds logical to me. I don't know. Sue me. What do you think?
52:36 Speaker 01 That's my point. It, it does sound logical. It is like so. Coldly correct, yet, and I also did love that he threw a little shade. He's like, and we even got this guy Alex over here, Alexander Wang, founder of Scale AI, who ran a business that had kind of the dumb people doing the coding, those contractors. But you guys, you guys are smart. So us training on your keystrokes is a lot better. Like, it's, it's wild to me that that becomes the kind of narrative, knowing that this is going to become such a big topic, if they're really doing this. Like, he started to get there. And you start to think, like,
53:20 Speaker 01 our models will be better because of this, which will make you more money and Facebook more successful, and you more successful. Okay, that's at least somewhat of a reasonable thing. But you are smart. So you should almost feel honored to be trained, that your keystrokes are being trained off of, versus those less intelligent contractors, just at every level. Come on, come on.
53:47 Speaker 00 I mean, all right, just to, just to contextualize it, to be fair here, like, those keys, like, this is the way, we've talked about in the past, why they did this. We talked about why, this is the way that AI is being trained right now. It's watching people go through environments and using that as reinforcement learning. So, in some ways, I get it. But I do agree that, like, there's an overall, this is such a difficult, I mean, can you actually possibly message we're monitoring your keystrokes in a good way? No, should you be doing that? I don't know. It's sort of a toss up. It's kind of creepy.
54:19 Speaker 01 No, no, no.
54:21 Speaker 00 But the thing is, silly, oh, go ahead, go ahead, go ahead.
54:24 Speaker 01 Hold on, wait, okay, what if I come in? You know, we are actually at an existential point. Our models on the last benchmarks were laughed at by the industry. We've had, we must, for the entire future of Meta and your jobs, all of you, we need to improve our foundation models. The best way we have decided we can do that is to all come together. I will monitor my own keystrokes, and we will together, train these damn models and get back in the race. That's, that's my pitch.
55:01 Speaker 00 I love that. No, that would be much better. That would be a much better way to put it.
55:05 Speaker 01 I mean, he should have said, I'm I'm I'm training my, I am monitoring my own keystrokes, dramatically open his computer and he's getting, he's getting monitored too.
55:16 Speaker 00 Yeah, you can see, you can see NetNanny on my computer as well. No, I think this is one of the things. I mean, obviously, like, I don't know. I was gonna say something positive, but I'll just say this, that like Silicon Valley cannot get out of its own way on this. And I think it's clear. Let's go to Marc Andreessen, and I know this is bait, because like Marc Andreessen is gonna go on Joe Rogan to say baity things, so the people will pick it up and they'll be like, get outraged. And Andreessen will be like, look at these babies. So I understand that this is bait. And I'm gonna, I'll take it anyway. Andreessen, who was making the case that AI is gonna help our productivity, managed to say while making that case is stunning. He goes, he was talking about the AI, the bots, right? He says the bots never get frustrated with you. They never get sick. They never get depressed
56:01 Speaker 00 because their girlfriend breaks up with them and they never file HR complaints. Even if you think these things, don't say these things. Like, you're not the the botching of the storytelling on this front. And, you know, we talk a lot, a lot about comms, so fine, get the criticism. But like, this is gonna have real implications. You're gonna have candidates talking about kill switches, moratoriums, you're gonna have data centers not being able to be built. The country is gonna turn on this stuff. The boos matter, is my point.
56:32 Speaker 01 The booze does matter. I think like, does, do you think it's solely a function of that kind of personality, including in Andreessen, just has not lost in a long time? I mean, they lost on crypto net net, but like, it's just, it's this complete invincibility. But still, you know, Trump comes into office and David Sacks becomes the AI czar. And these companies become the center of the economy. Like, do you think it is simply that? Or do you think like, like, what would be something that would have to happen to actually stop this kind of, like, make people a little bit more cognizant of what they're saying?
57:17 Speaker 01 And realizing that baiting people like that is not a good thing?
57:22 Speaker 00 Well, the technology would have to stop, right? Because ultimately, like, say what you want about tech in the US. It has, its march has continued unabated and the technological progress has been obvious for everybody to see. It's incredible, the technological progress that we're seeing, and it hasn't lost. And honestly, like, it's, it is at a point where it's going to be diffused in a crazy way, AI. So I think their belief is whether they like me or not, this is gonna be, this is gonna just, you know, get everywhere soon. And maybe they're, they're not wrong. I don't know.
57:55 Speaker 01 I wonder like-
57:56 Speaker 00 Although it's not a politically strong message, for sure.
57:59 Speaker 01 Do you think in China, are, are any of the like, leading AI figures equally dickish? As like, many of those in, uh, in the US?
58:12 Speaker 00 Well, I mean, in China, you don't, you don't need to sell the idea. Because it doesn't matter. It's gonna happen no matter what. In the US, the public does have some, and in your
58:22 Speaker 01 They're, they're obviously not, they're-
58:24 Speaker 00 Latitude here.
58:25 Speaker 01 No, but they're not, they can't be trying to sell the idea, because if you're trying to sell the idea, this is the worst possible way to do it. Like,
58:36 Speaker 00 In their minds, I mean, Andreessen's mind, I think when he talks about AI, he's trying to get people excited about it. But I ultimately think that like, he doesn't, yeah, I don't know. He probably cares more about the business leaders than the public. And thinks that I want to get, I want to speak to the business leaders. And it doesn't matter what the public, the way the public reacts here, because they're not my constituency.
58:59 Speaker 01 I guess I cannot imagine them being sold, like trying to sell this. If this is, you're selling, come on, he was an entrepreneur. You have to learn the art of selling at some point, but uh, I'm looking up the, uh, the founder of, or the CEO of Dovao, the basically ChatGPT equivalent run by ByteDance, a guy Alex Zhu. I'm gonna do some more looking into this. I'm curious now, like, are there big personalities who are just saying ridiculously stupid things?
59:35 Speaker 00 No. Well, you know what happens to big personalities in the China business community?
59:40 Speaker 01 Yeah, yeah. Okay, fair.
59:42 Speaker 00 How many interviews has the DeepSeek guy given in international media? Jason Point?
59:47 Speaker 01 Yeah.
59:47 Speaker 00 He is there. Do your thing, keep a low profile, make the country proud.
59:51 Speaker 01 Uh, I don't want to say, maybe we could learn something, but maybe.
59:59 Speaker 01 Just tone it down a little, guys. We're going into an election year. Don't ruin this for everybody.
1:00:08 Speaker 01 Just stay quiet.
1:00:10 Speaker 00 One thing, one thing is guaranteed, this is now a political issue, right? Something that's polling like this, the politicians will, some politician will learn to exploit. And that I think like, um, that is where you could end up getting derailed, in my opinion.
1:00:24 Speaker 01 Do you know the, the largest consumer facing artificial intelligence product in the Chinese speaking world? Do Bao is named after a steamed bean bun. That is how you make people friendly and happy.
1:00:40 Speaker 00 All right, everybody. Have a great holiday weekend. Ron John, great to see you as always. Thanks for joining.
1:00:45 Speaker 01 All right. See you next week.
1:00:47 Speaker 00 See you next week. Thanks, everybody for listening and we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.
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