Ben Horowitz: The Fight Over Open Source AI

Ben Horowitz joins Theo Jaffee and Sofia Puccini to discuss one of the biggest debates in AI today: the future of open-source models. They examine the growing push to restrict open models, why Ben believes open source is critical for security, innovation, and competition, and what happens if a handful of frontier labs come to dominate the AI ecosystem. They also discuss distillation, AI monopolies, China's role in open-source AI, robotics, manufacturing, the economics of frontier models, and why Ben believes the AI market is still in its earliest stages. The conversation closes with a look at AI-generated art, creativity, and whether new tools will spark the next cultural renaissance.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Ben Horowitz?

  If you look at the history of the industry, the open source version of everything has been much safer. So the internet and Linux were far safer than Windows. Like, by our lot. The safest thing for the world is that there is not one AI to rule them all, that there's AI for everybody. And I think that open source is basically the best path towards that goal. It's probably the single most important policy issue around AI. It feels like we're at a stable equilibrium in the market, but the truth is, the AI market is probably less than 3% penetrated.

• 0:40Speaker 01

  Should AI be open? Theo Jaffe and Sophia Puccini are joined by Ben Horowitz to discuss the battle over open source AI, why he believes open models are essential to innovation and national security, and what the future of AI competition means for startups, frontier labs, and the broader technology ecosystem.

• 1:01Speaker 02

  We are live with Ben Horowitz of Andreessen Horowitz, who needs no introduction. So we'll just dive right into it. Ben, welcome back to MTS.

• 1:11Ben Horowitz?

  Thank you, thank you. Happy to be here.

• 1:14Speaker 02

  So so much has happened in the world of open source, open weights in the last couple of weeks. It's gotten, you know, it's gotten real. There's there's some drama going on. There's an open letter released by Nvidia today called Open Weights in American AI Leadership, signed by many companies, including Andreessen Horowitz. So can you tell us a little bit about the intent behind this letter and what you hope to achieve from it?

• 1:43Ben Horowitz?

  Yeah, so I think that it's it's probably the single most important policy issue around AI that's kind of currently going on. And, you know, the kind of battle is between kind of almost an anti-competitive stance guised in a in a kind of safety cloak. It's kind of what we ought to be doing. And so if you look at, you know, why is open source important? And there's there's many reasons. You know, the first, we'll just start academia. Like, academia is completely out of the AI game if there's no open source. So like, that goes away.

• 2:28Ben Horowitz?

  I think, secondly, you know, we just had a really interesting security incident with OpenAI hacking into Hugging Face. And the only way Hugging Face was able to prevent it is the proprietary models had guardrails, which prevented them from doing security tasks, was to use an open source model. So, you know, and I think the important point there is you can't actually ban open source, of course. You know, it's it's it's out there. It's a file, it's on the internet. Like, we have no way of doing that. And it reminds me of, you know, years ago, when I was at Netscape, they tried to ban cryptography. And like, there's, you know, the math is out there. Like, you're not going to ban it.

• 3:13Ben Horowitz?

  It's not actually possible. But you can prevent the good guys from using it. And that's what would happen, I think, in the case of an open source ban is, you know, the threats would be, well, you can't work with the US government if you use open source, or you can't do this. So a company like Hugging Face would not be able to actually use the product. So that, you know, would be bad. But then kind of getting into, just like the, if you look at the history of the industry, the open source version of everything has been much safer. So the internet and Linux were far safer than Windows. Like, by our lot. And why is that? Well, because the whole community could work on the safety problems

• 3:57Ben Horowitz?

  as opposed to just a company, and particularly a monopoly company that, you know, like, you can't. Even if Windows has a million security bugs, there's nothing we can do about it because it was a monopoly at the time, right? And so that, you know, that's a very difficult position for the world to be in. If you look at now, the argument against OpenAI or AI being open source is, oh, well, nobody understands how the weights work. So, you know, it's not like people could inspect it. But why is it better to not see the weights? If that's the case? And I think in reality, if you look at the really tough problems that we have safety-wise,

• 4:42Ben Horowitz?

  the toughest being reward hacking currently. And obviously Anthropic has not solved it. Obviously, OpenAI has not solved it because we just had these incidents. Well, should the whole world be able to look at, okay, how are the weights moving? Why is it that guardrails don't prevent the reward hack? And maybe somebody can come up with an answer, somebody who doesn't work for one of the proprietary labs, who are much more focused on, you know, obviously, keeping ahead on the benchmarks and getting the money and all that kind of thing. You know, what if the whole community could work on it? So it's like, really, really important, I think, to safety in general. And then, you know, kind of finally,

• 5:24Ben Horowitz?

  the safest thing for the world is that there is not one AI to rule them all, that there's kind of AI for everybody. And I think that open source is basically the best path, you know, kind of towards that goal.

• 5:39Speaker 03

  Right. So Jensen made a Twitter account, basically, to publish this.

• 5:44Ben Horowitz?

  Good for Jensen.

• 5:46Speaker 03

  Right? So that, I think, speaks to the significance of where we are right now, that he was like, okay, it now is the time to, you know, speak out about this and get all of these companies to, like, you know, co-sign it. What do you think are some of the risks right now from like a government action perspective on open source?

• 6:05Ben Horowitz?

  Well, look, I think there's a huge push with a lot of money behind it. You know, particularly from Anthropic to ban open source. I think that it is kind of nefarious from my point of view, but, you know, whatever their motivation is. They do have, so one of the things that happened with cryptography is there are people who are very senior in the intelligence community who didn't understand the technological aspect of it, who pushed for banning cryptography because they wanted control. And I think that it's a similar thing here

• 6:50Ben Horowitz?

  where it just feels like more control if you can stop some kind of AI. And, you know, but that those are very powerful forces in the conversation right now. And I think that there is certainly a kind of pretty strong community pushing for the banning of open source. And so that's why this letter was so important, to why it's so great that, you know, not just Jensen, but Elon, Satya, Sam, all supported it. And I think it's, I just think it's very obviously the right answer for safety, the right answer for America. And it would be a real shame if we, you know,

• 7:34Ben Horowitz?

  kind of shot ourselves in the foot on this.

• 7:36Speaker 02

  Yeah. Well, another angle that many people talk about with respect to open source is China and national security as opposed to like AI safety stuff. And some people say, you know, it's a national security risk for so many American startups to be dependent on like infrastructure that comes from China. You know, in the event that, for example, China decided to cut everything off and stop releasing better open source models to American companies. Or perhaps they could, you know, in an AI future, make these open source models like sleeper agents, basically. Or you could think of all kinds of things that they could do.

• 8:16Ben Horowitz?

  Yeah, I mean, as could, right? A Chinese national working for Anthropic or OpenAI or, you know, SpaceX, right? Like, it's not like these Chinese nationals cannot be activated by the Chinese government. Like, we've seen that. So like, if that's a threat, like, I think that's just a general threat, not specific to open source AI. And then, nothing against Chinese nationals. We love them, they're great for our country and so forth. But like, if you're worried about that. You know, you ought to be worried about it like the more likely way I think would be that kind of spy activation. But like it's open source.

• 8:57Ben Horowitz?

  And so if they stop making it like we've still got the last code base, we can train up the model, we can, you know, we can learn from it in the meanwhile, there's, I mean, the great thing about open is it's open. And, you know, look, we need to build our own open source products here. Thinking Machines is doing a good job of that, I think, in France, you know, Mistral's doing a good job of that. So like, we, we need to keep pushing the technology forward, the open technology. So that, look, it, it needs to be available everywhere for everyone. And like, we can't be held hostage by, like, the worst scenario is there ends up being a monopoly in AI. I mean, I, I think it's fairly obvious how dangerous that could be and how powerful

• 9:40Ben Horowitz?

  that company would be and what a national security risk that would be. We've already seen a glimpse of it, right? With Anthropic saying like, I don't care who got elected in the US, I don't care about the government, I don't care about the Department of War, we're not going to work with you. We're in charge. And so you look at that, you go, okay, that's seems like a much bigger national security risk than the kinds of little holes people are trying to poke in the open source story. So I, I just think it's very, very important that this technology proliferate and not be kept contained in a single company.

• 10:18Speaker 03

  Yeah, definitely. So we have like, kind of become a little more defenders of distillation recently. So we talk about how, you know, like, distillation is not actually like illegal, like, a lot of the labs are still paying API prices to, you know, like, use the models. So what are your thoughts? Do you think it's part of like a healthy competitive landscape?

• 10:43Speaker 02

  We, we talked to Aaron Levy earlier about this and he was like, you know, how can Anthropic like just take everyone's training data without paying them at all, but when other labs pay them, it's distillation, it needs to be banned?

• 10:55Ben Horowitz?

  Yeah, I actually agree with Aaron and I think that's right. Like, from a legal standpoint, there is, the outputs of AI models are not copyrighted, they don't fall under copyright law. So the only thing it could be is a terms of service violation. But like, I think generally, that's right. You know, Anthropic just paid $1.5 billion for stealing everybody's books, including mine better. They trained on my book and I joined that class action lawsuit. So, you know, not to say, look, I'm for training them out, building a statistical model of the things we know, I think that's generally good for the world and so forth, as long as you don't violate the copyright and reproduce the, the original work.

• 11:39Ben Horowitz?

  And I think the same, yeah, like, I think distillation is generally good for the world. I also think they're going to have a very hard time stopping it for many reasons. Yeah, they have theories on how they're going to stop it, but I'm not sure that those are going to succeed, so we'll see. But yeah, I, I think distillation is good and like the whole idea that we're stealing American stuff. By the way, the data companies are all out selling to everybody, you know, including the Chinese companies that are building these things. So, you know, I don't know how much you can contain all this stuff anyway.

• 12:17Speaker 02

  So why do you think that so far, over the last few years, Chinese labs have surpassed American labs in terms of open source performance?

• 12:27Ben Horowitz?

  Well, because I think that all the American labs have kind of built their businesses on proprietary models and there's a lot kind of that, that becomes, and they have to, to kind of afford the GPUs, you know, they need these very high valuations to keep ahead on the GPUs to keep going. And, you know, because they're in the lead, you know, distillation doesn't work for them because their, their model is on the cutting edge, it's on the frontier. And, and that's just how kind of the markets evolved. I think, look, generally, that's been the way it is, like, the number one is never open.

• 13:10Ben Horowitz?

  And then, you know, number two goes open is, is kind of the history of the software industry.

• 13:15Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 13:16Ben Horowitz?

  I do think that we're going to see, I mean, like I said, with Thinking Machines, they've got, you know, they're making really good headway with their open source efforts. So, you know, hopefully, hopefully we'll see kind of more of that and kind of more breakthroughs, you know, on the open source side. But like, part of the challenge or part of the reason why AI is just so different than software is you can throw money at the problem, right? Like, so if you have more GPUs, that's actually turns out to be a really big deal.

• 13:45Speaker 03

  Yeah. What about open source in industries like robotics? Because like, Unitree is at least like, you know, a large percentage open source. And it looks like, you know, like, they have just had like such a, you know, booming industry and like so much deployment within China and we don't have anything like that here. Do you think that we're missing like that open source ecosystem in the US? Or is it just a different thing? I mean, there's obviously supply chain and stuff.

• 14:13Ben Horowitz?

  No, I, I think there's a lot to be said for that, right? Because, you know, as an application, so what's happened, the, the other thing that we haven't spoken about, like, is, well, what's the AI platform? And, you know, so if you're an application provider, what do you build on? And what we've seen is it's been already fairly dangerous to build on Anthropic because they, every time an application category starts to do well, they move into that category. And then they've, you know, like, we've seen them do like very aggressive things where, you know, the price for the application provider is full price and then they subsidize their

• 14:58Ben Horowitz?

  version of the application. And so it's a kind of that, that they've kind of fast forwarded, I would say, the Microsoft playbook from the old days to like skipping the platform generation and just going straight to the monopoly generation. And so if you're an application provider, like, okay, how can I safely build on a proprietary model if that company is going to come attack me and then charge me much more than they're charging themselves to do the same thing? And so open source is kind of a way that the ecosystem gets built. So if you're building robots, for example, if you were to build your robot on Anthropic, then at some point, you know Anthropic's going to go into the robot business and put

• 15:41Ben Horowitz?

  you out of business just by either cutting you off or overcharging you. And so this is kind of a way that their ecosystem can grow by building on the open source. And hopefully, look, by the way, a lot of our industry is, has grown, a lot of our application companies have used open source to kind of bootstrap themselves or get going or that kind of thing, and often Chinese open source, which is why, you know, it's really important to the US ecosystem that we have applications, that we have embodied AI, that we have robots and all these things that we have access to that technology because the kind of other model is a monopoly model where there's one company that owns all the applications and all the robots and all of everything.

• 16:22Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 16:23Ben Horowitz?

  And look, I'm not saying, I'm not even mad at them for doing that necessarily, it's their, like, that's their business approach, but like, the consequences of it, if they're able to ban their competitors, is not good.

• 16:36Speaker 02

  Yeah, I, I also worry about these, you know, very monopolistic, like centralized futures. And like, one area in particular that I think might be concerning in the future is like, if one AI company is able to use its AIs to automate its AI research process and then become much more capable than everyone else very quickly. It seems like, you know, that wouldn't be so good for like a pluralistic, you know, startup ecosystem.

• 17:02Ben Horowitz?

  So, yeah, that, that's certainly their strategy, you know, and we'll see how it goes. But I think that kind of the best hedge against that is for like many, many companies being able to do AI, which is why the open models are powerful in that context.

• 17:17Speaker 03

  Yeah. I guess, speaking of China, there's a lot of things that are like, you know, either like tariffed or, I mean, we export control, we also tariff them, like, things like EVs, right? We talk about EVs all the time. And if we had like a, you know, BYD level pricing for EVs in the US, that would just be like so huge. Do you think there's a way that we could move towards that future? Like, what would have to, what would it take to get to that?

• 17:46Ben Horowitz?

  Well, I think that, you know, with BYD in particular, there, there are a lot of subsidies from the Chinese government that enable them to achieve this amazing pricing. And a lot of it is a kind of a

• 18:03Ben Horowitz?

  Well, so kind of getting into manufacturing and, you know, the US is so we as a country kind of invented so much of manufacturing and then kind of forgot what we knew. So like, if you go back to we won World War II based on our superior manufacturing capability. And then like over the next, whatever hundred years, we forgot to hold that. We need to rebuild that capability and manufacturing has changed and is becoming much more automated, much more kind of AI centric. And so I think as we kind of build into the second, or you call it the

• 18:43Ben Horowitz?

  third industrial revolution, that, you know, being able to be competitive on manufacturing by building automated factories and so forth, you know, similar to what Elon has been able to do at Tesla and in the Gigafactory and so forth, is going to be the way that we get to competitiveness there for sure.

• 19:06Speaker 03

  Yeah, definitely. Yeah. What other open source companies with regards to AI? No, we have like A16Z port co-thinking machines. But, you know, where else? And Mistral, yeah, yeah. Where else do you see like new open source models coming out of? Would it require literally just like a Gates Foundation?

• 19:30Ben Horowitz?

  Yeah, there's not a lot going on in America right now. But, you know, and but I but I think it can happen. And then there are some real efforts in academia. My friend Jan Stoichka from Berkeley is kind of working hard to put together a project where we can fund kind of an open source model in that everybody in academia can use and build on. And, you know, I think that's just really important. You know, if you look at the history of technology in this country, a lot of it, you know, kind of starts in universities and they've kind

• 20:09Ben Horowitz?

  of been iced out of AI due to the incredible costs and the threat that open source is under. And well, the lack of US open source in particular, yeah.

• 20:25Speaker 02

  In the long run, what exactly is the incentive for a business to release open source models, especially if they're a foundation lab and most of their business is making the models which are very expensive?

• 20:38Ben Horowitz?

  Yeah. So I think that, I mean, this is where like, I'm glad you both are pro-distillation because I think that's an important equation. But look, I think that there's a there's different business. Like, I think the business model of selling, serving the model at a very high premium doesn't work if you're open source, but there's other things, you know, particularly like one of the things we already know is that, you know, for an enterprise and a B to B context, a really well post-trained, kind of less powerful, smaller model works often better for a business task than like a large, you know, kind of a large proprietary

• 21:22Ben Horowitz?

  model and is much cheaper as well. So cheaper, faster and gets your answer. So I think that it would be more like a kind of a Palantir-looking business model than it would be a Anthropic-looking business model or an open source company. And then, you know, true also on the consumer side, you know, we we've seen on consumer like the use case really, really matters. And so kind of tuning our model for that kind of thing can can really work.

• 21:57Speaker 02

  Do you think that open source models are currently a threat to the business model of large closed source foundation model developers? Like, I can imagine, yes, because if people can get similar capabilities for a much lower price point, they'd switch over. But also, like, when you compare Kimi to Fable or Soul, there's definitely areas where Fable and Soul are just way better and people will pay for them anyway.

• 22:20Ben Horowitz?

  Yeah, I don't think anybody's a threat, a real kind of current threat to anybody else's business right now. Like, in that we're so early in the market. So the thing that's very deceptive about AI is because the market is so much larger than any other market we've seen prior, that it feels like, okay, we're kind of at a stable equilibrium in the market. But the truth is, the AI market is probably less than 3% penetrated.

• 22:49Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 22:49Ben Horowitz?

  And so everybody's going to grow, right? Like, when DeepSeek came out, it was a DeepSeek moment and, oh, my gosh, and this is the end of Anthropic and OpenAI and all that. And nothing changed, right? Like, nothing changed, zero. And that's because but DeepSeek is more valuable and Anthropic is more valuable and OpenAI is more valuable. You know, they all grew and SpaceX is more valuable. So I think that at this stage of the market, everything is going to grow a lot and nobody's going to pounce on other people's market share in a way that is so material that it's going to like cripple them.

• 23:30Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 23:30Ben Horowitz?

  Now, someday, when we get to some kind of equilibrium in the market and there's so much share to go around and then you're fighting each other for share, then, you know, these things may come into play. But for right now, I don't think so.

• 23:44Speaker 03

  Yeah, the pie overall is so big. I wonder if this follows also for like?

• 23:48Ben Horowitz?

  It's like the biggest pie of all time.

• 23:49Speaker 03

  Yeah. When would we like have some indication of like, the AI market is actually settling to an equilibrium? Like, we can't really rely on historical data because this is sort of an unprecedented technology.

• 24:06Ben Horowitz?

  Yeah, I think it's, I think it's, it's pretty hard to see because, right, like, everybody who's using it keeps using it more and more and more and more. You know, like, well, like you talk to businesses and their kind of token usage is growing like tenfold annually. So we're but but I look, I think we'll see it when, you know, you kind of see growth really slow down in, you know, in the various players and things like that. But no, these things are growing like several, you know, 1,000% a year, 500% a year. Like, we're nowhere near to that state, you know, and in stable markets, things grow like, you know, whatever.

• 24:49Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 24:52Speaker 03

  What companies do you see are currently benefiting the most from like very, very cheap intelligence? Like, the kind of companies that use like, you know, the Kimis and the DeepSeeks?

• 25:03Ben Horowitz?

  Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, I think that, you know, well, a lot of software companies are able to use it for kind of various tasks. I think on the things like customer support and specialized applications, people are able to benefit a lot from them. And then, you know, look, I think Cursor survived for a long time because it was able to have an open source alternative for cheap tasks that they have. And, you know, now they're, of course, they're on, they're on Grok. But, you know, I think every application

• 25:43Ben Horowitz?

  company in AI world benefits from open source right now to some degree. Like, they're all using some, nobody's not using an open source model who's an application provider that I know of. So it's kind of that whole field. And so it's really a catastrophe for, for that whole part of the ecosystem if, you know, if these guys get their way.

• 26:08Speaker 02

  When it comes to these like very cheap models, it seems like I can imagine a future where if the really good models, like the flagship frontier models, get much more capable and can, you know, really do a lot of the tasks that an employee can do at a job, that enterprises would be gladly willing to spend a lot more on that rather than go to the much cheaper models in order to cut costs. So do you think that could?

• 26:37Ben Horowitz?

  I think that's been the case so far, right? Like, so it's not like Anthropic's having trouble selling Fable or OpenAI is having trouble selling Soul. Like, those things are growing very fast, you know, both growing very fast. So I think that's true. And then there's a question about which categories of jobs would you rather have super intelligence and pay 8X or 10X as much for? And then which class of jobs would you rather have something faster and cheaper? And that'll be a question. And I think there's

• 27:18Ben Horowitz?

  probably plenty of jobs in each category, just like the humans, right? Like, would you pay a crazy amount of money for an AI researcher? Oh, definitely, like clearly. And then there's, you know, okay, would you pay an insane amount of money for a janitorial service? Probably not. You know, like, would you pay 100X for a better janitor? Maybe not. You know, would you pay 100X more for a better accountant? I don't think so.

• 27:49Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 27:50Ben Horowitz?

  So like, so there, there, there's different jobs in different categories. So, you know, not everything will be that, but there will be plenty of jobs that are that.

• 28:02Speaker 03

  Another question, it's kind of random, but how optimistic are you about AI art?

• 28:08Speaker 03

  Do you like, do you think, how do you think we're going to fix the slot problem? Do you think it's going to get worse before it gets better?

• 28:15Ben Horowitz?

  No, I think it'll, I, the way I would look at it is, I'm not that worried about the slot problem. I think that.

• 28:26Ben Horowitz?

  I think the exciting thing is that for creatives, any idea you have is now possible. And so we're going to get a lot of new ideas, great new ideas and everything, you know, film, music, you know, new kinds of things that, yeah, new kinds of video ideas and so forth. So I think it's going to be a little bit of a renaissance for it in that like every time we have a new technology, we get new kinds of art.

• 28:55Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 28:56Ben Horowitz?

  And, you know, the, from like the invention of the saxophone, which I think was like in 1800s, 1850 or something like that, the invention of electric guitar, you know, we got rock and roll from that. We got jazz from the invention of the saxophone and then we got hip hop from the invention of the drum machine. Like, like every time there's a new technology, we get a new kind of art form in music. And I think that's going to happen here.

• 29:24Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 29:25Ben Horowitz?

  And there will be stuff that's really good and there will be more people who can make bad things. There was more people who could be bad rappers than there were who could be bad rock and rollers because you didn't have to learn how to play an instrument.

• 29:36Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 29:37Ben Horowitz?

  But that's okay. Like, I think that's fine. I'm for that, like, you know, anything that, I also think it's just good for everybody to be able to express themselves and, and so better tools for expression is generally a good thing, you know? There are issues with it. You know, I do get nostalgic for some of the things of the past, of course, but, you know, like, generally.

• 30:01Speaker 02

  What music are you listening to now?

• 30:04Ben Horowitz?

  Yeah, so it's been a little bit of a drought for me on new music, but I actually liked the new, the Wyclef album. I thought it was pretty interesting that he just did. And I've been listening to a lot of old music. I've been listening to Curtis Masonos, who is really underrated, really good, but.

• 30:28Speaker 03

  Yeah. I think like with things like this, it increases the amount of like really mediocre artists, not mediocre because that's mean, but like, yeah. And then it makes it really hard to be very, very good, just because there's so much competition in the space and everyone is like, it's like very democratized, which is a good thing. But it's just hard for like, from a discernment perspective, kind of.

• 30:51Ben Horowitz?

  Um, yeah, but that, that kind of happened in a big way with Spotify too, right?

• 30:58Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 30:59Speaker 02

  SoundCloud.

• 31:00Speaker 03

  SoundCloud, yeah.

• 31:01Ben Horowitz?

  Yeah, SoundCloud, like even anybody could put anything on their YouTube, all that kind of thing. But, you know, I still think there's, there's great stuff that's higher art and there's, and there will continue to be, I think.

• 31:16Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 31:17Speaker 02

  I totally agree. Well, Ben, it's been so great having you on MTS to talk about open

• 31:22Speaker 03

  Thanks for joining us.

• 31:23Speaker 02

  And music. Thanks so much for joining.

• 31:25Ben Horowitz?

  Okay, now, thanks a lot and appreciate it very much.

• 31:29Speaker 03

  Thanks, Ben.

• 31:30Speaker 01

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• 32:12Speaker 01

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