Pod Insights The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway Prof G Markets: Upheaval at Twitter, Airbnb and Uber Earnings, and the Chinese Markets About this episode This week on Prof G Markets, Scott shares his thoughts on Elon’s proposed changes to Twitter so far and explains why enabling paywalled videos like OnlyFans is a good idea. He then makes the argument for why Airbnb is one of the best-performing companies in the world, and how Uber might turn profitable at long last. Finally, Ed and Scott check in on the state of the Chinese markets under the relentless zero-covid policy.
Show notes:
Twitter
Airbnb
Uber
China's PMI
Music: https://www.davidcuttermusic.com / @dcuttermusic
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Transcript 5,243 words · 11 speakers
Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
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1:18 Scott Galloway? This week's number, $220 billion. That's a total cost of hosting the World Cup in Qatar this year. It will be the most expensive World Cup ever. No shocker there. For context, the World Cup in Brazil in 2014 cost just $15 billion. I have two tickets to the World Cup, but I just found out it's the day of my anniversary. So if anyone would like to go in my place, just let me know. Her name is Susan, and we have reservations at Granger's.
1:57 Scott Galloway? Welcome to Prof G Markets. Today, we're discussing Elon's Twitter upheaval so far, Uber and Airbnb's earnings, and the pain in the Chinese markets. Here with the news is Prof G Media Analyst Ed Elson. Ed, what is the good word, my brother? It's a very special day at Prof G Media.
2:16 Ed Elson? Happy birthday, Scott.
2:17 Scott Galloway? Thank you, Ed. And we should also point out that I thought it was my birthday yesterday.
2:21 Ed Elson? I was just gonna bring that up.
2:23 Scott Galloway? And put out a tweet and was feeling sorry for myself because my family had called me and then recognized that it was, in fact, not my birthday. So I think that's what it means to get old. I think that's fitting that you start forgetting which day is your birthday. Anyways, thank you.
2:36 Ed Elson? How old are you, 27?
2:38 Scott Galloway? No, no, Ed. I just turned 41.
2:39 Ed Elson? Okay, good.
2:40 Scott Galloway? And naked, I look 40 in 7 eights. Anyways, get to the news. I don't want to talk about my birthday.
2:45 Ed Elson? Let's start with our weekly review of market vitals.
2:54 Ed Elson? The S and P 500 fell after the Fed indicated interest rate hikes would continue. The dollar moved higher, Bitcoin fell slightly, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose again, remaining elevated above 4%. Shifting to the headlines. Amazon's market value fell below $1 trillion for the first time since the pandemic. The stock declined 6% on Tuesday, erasing almost all of its pandemic gains. The company also announced a hiring freeze across its corporate workforce citing macroeconomic conditions. Meanwhile, Lyft and Stripe are reducing their headcounts by 13 and 14% respectively. There's that Patagonia recession you were talking about last week.
3:35 Ed Elson? And as expected, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time this year. The Fed funds rate is now at its highest level since January 2008. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell said rate hikes will continue, but indicated a slowdown could be imminent.
3:51 Speaker 04 At some point, it will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases as we approach the level of interest rates that will be sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2% goal. There is significant uncertainty around that level of interest rates. Even so, we still have some ways to go. And incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.
4:16 Ed Elson? The Bank of England also delivered a rate hike of 75 basis points the following day. That's its largest increase since 1989. Scott, any thoughts?
4:26 Scott Galloway? Chairman Powell is, you know, he's come to play. He's not messing around. And there's some... We were talking last week about parsing language. So saying we still have some ways to go is, you know, pretty aggressive language. And I think growthy stocks that are especially susceptible to interest rates have again really taken it in the shorts. So why do we care or why do growth stocks get hit harder? Because you're basically betting on the future. Growth stocks are valued based on future cash flows, which are worth less in a high interest rate environment because you have to discount those cash flows in the future back at a higher discount rate. In addition, if they're growth companies, they still need to raise capital oftentimes, and it's more expensive to buy that capital. So their future cash flows are worth less and their current business costs more to
5:10 Scott Galloway? finance, thereby hitting their equity value. But you're seeing it across tech right now. It's getting hit pretty hard.
5:30 Ed Elson? After just one week of owning the company, Elon Musk is already shaking things up at Twitter. Musk has fired the CEO Parag Agarwal, as well as the CFO and the General Counsel, and at least five other executives have left, including the Chief Marketing Officer and the Head of Product. Elon has also proposed many changes, including mass layoffs, as we discussed last week, enabling video paywalls similar to OnlyFans, bringing back Vine, that's the short form video app that Twitter shut down in 2016, and charging users $8 per month for the blue check. Right now, the blue check is a symbol that a user is verified, i.e. a celebrity or a journalist. But under the paid model, Elon said blue check users will also get access to exclusive features.
6:13 Ed Elson? And crucially, he believes this will help solve the bot problem. Scott, you've been saying Twitter should switch to a paid model for years now. So I assume you like what Elon's doing?
6:26 Scott Galloway? There's a lot to like here. So first off, just coming up with new innovative or being open to new innovative ideas and trying to, you know, jab the corpus with a big, you know, EpiPen or shot of adrenaline is probably good for the company right now. I think they should and can take a lot of business away from a great business called OnlyFans.
6:44 Ed Elson? Could you explain a little further what you mean there?
6:47 Scott Galloway? I think OnlyFans is a great business, and I think there's a large segment of the population that doesn't want to be associated with OnlyFans. And that is, they would be embarrassed. I think it's a safe assumption to assume that your entire credit card history will be made public someday. And having a charge for whatever it is, twenty, thirty, a hundred bucks, or whatever you spend that says OnlyFans or whatever the merchant identification is that is OnlyFans is probably not something people are excited to do. But if it was seamless and sort of present on Twitter, I think adult content is a huge business. I think OnlyFans is a great business. It's kind of opened up a lot of job opportunities for people or ways to make money that I'm sure some people don't agree with or find offensive. I think people should get to do whatever the heck they want with their own bodies.
7:32 Scott Galloway? And if they make money, good for them. So Twitter has such ubiquity. And if they built the technology that made it easy, built in a micropayments platform, I think it's a, I think it's one of those niche businesses that's highly profitable, a great business that they or someone else should absolutely be in. But it seems to me that it's kind of a natural fit for a social network like Twitter, a kind of a business that they should be in.
7:54 Ed Elson? And what do you think about that eight dollar number? Do you think that he just pulled that out of thin air? Or do you think that's a calculated number? Or what do you think of that number?
8:03 Scott Galloway? Quite frankly, the eight dollar a month hubbub right now just isn't worth it. Because if every currently verified user, that's 400,000 accounts, signed up and paid eight dollars a month, that would generate just forty million dollars a year. That doesn't move the needle for them. But if 10% of Twitter's 238 million daily active users paid, and I think they should pay more, or an average of, call it 10 bucks, they'd get an incremental two and a half billion. That's a game changer. So the bottom line is they need to charge. And the blue check will largely indicate somebody who's capturing a lot of value or creating a lot of value. But it shouldn't be limited to blue check. That doesn't, I don't understand that as a segmentation strategy. Again, it should be the people with the most followers who are garnering the most economic value if they want to move the needle here.
8:44 Ed Elson? How much would you pay?
8:45 Scott Galloway? Generally speaking, there's consumer dissonance. People will say they will pay less or more than they actually would. I think that if they charged us a hundred to a thousand dollars a month, I think if they said, all right, to maintain a direct line of communication with a half a million people, that you want to be cognizant of your work, to hire you for, or give you opportunities to invest. Or bring some sunlight to your research, or create awareness for your speaking gigs, or your books, or whatever it might be. I think we would probably pay a thousand bucks a month.
9:16 Ed Elson? And that's for the blue check? Or for being on Twitter?
9:19 Scott Galloway? For being on Twitter. I think that verification identification, or you could add, you know, additional features, or maybe say my content gets elevated above other people's content, whatever it might be. They could come up with a series of features to try and justify it. But a one-price or one-size-fits-all is the wrong strategy, just as airlines charge wildly different prices for the same seat on the same plane, but it's worth different amounts to different people at different times. Pricing should be based on some sort of assessment of the economic surplus they are not capturing, and they should take 10, 20, 30% of that economic value that they are not capturing.
9:54 Speaker 05 Sorry to break up the sausage fest, but it's time for Mia on the street. Today, I took to the streets of Brooklyn to ask people if they knew what a blue check was, and if they would pay for a blue check. And I got some opinions on Elon Musk himself. All right, so do you use Twitter? No. Do you know what a blue check is? Would you pay to have one?
10:14 Scott Galloway? Probably not.
10:15 Speaker 05 No.
10:17 Speaker 06 Me personally, no. However, if having a blue check had some, like, you know, financial net positive, then maybe.
10:29 Speaker 05 No.
10:29 Speaker 07 Fuck no. Hell, fuck no. Boy, is that the Elon Musk shit going on? Yeah, he tripping.
10:36 Speaker 05 How do you feel about Elon Musk?
10:38 Scott Galloway? Kind of based.
10:40 Speaker 07 Very cool, Ray. Well, listen, appreciate your time. And like I said, I'll...
10:43 Scott Galloway? Like, ridiculous and awesome.
10:45 Speaker 05 Do you have any thoughts on him? And...
10:51 Speaker 07 That guy could fucking save it. He's a fucking dork.
10:54 Speaker 05 Okay, sweet, thank you.
10:56 Scott Galloway? You're welcome.
11:00 Ed Elson? We saw earnings from two big sharing economy platforms last week, Airbnb and Uber, and both beat expectations. Airbnb posted record quarterly revenues of $2.9 billion. That's up 29% from a year ago. Earnings came in at 179 per share versus 147 expected. However, the company also fell short on its guidance. It projects around $1.8 billion in revenue next quarter, while Wall Street expected 1.85 billion. Airbnb shares fell around 10% as a result. Now, Scott, we'll get to Uber in a minute, but let's just focus on Airbnb for now. I know that you're a long-term shareholder in the company. I know you like the company. So what do you think of this?
11:45 Ed Elson? Were you impressed with these earnings?
11:47 Scott Galloway? Yeah, I would argue right now Airbnb is one of the best performing companies in the world. You have two types of companies. You have very profitable companies such as a Meta or a Google
11:57 Scott Galloway? or a Microsoft that have kind of low growth. Apple is at 8%, which is super impressive, but they're kind of flat to single-digit growth. Then you have high-growth companies like an Uber that still lose money. So it's not easy to find a company that does over $1 billion in revenue and is profitable and is growing more than 20, and in this case, more than 30, almost 30% a year. So I would argue the air is pretty thin up here. There just aren't a lot of people performing the way Airbnb is. Now, the question is, why have shares fallen 20% in the last couple of trading days? I think interest rates hurt a company like this. I think the fear of a recession, when interest rates go up, if a recession comes, people seem to be ripping through their savings,
12:42 Scott Galloway? which means they'll likely decrease their discretionary spend, which you'd think would probably hurt Airbnb. They took their guidance down, which spooked everybody. And I think the markets are just looking for a reason to hit growth stocks and take them down to kind of more traditional multiples. And while Airbnb is sort of the fastest tortoise, if you will, it also is getting its turn at the woodshed. And I think this shows more than anything that market dynamics trump individual performance. It's hard to find anything bad. In these earnings and yet the stock's been taken down 20%. So it got hit really hard.
13:16 Ed Elson? Do you think the market reacted incorrectly? I mean, you mentioned that there might be a recession, sort of these macro conditions that could hurt Airbnb, but it also seems like those conditions can hurt any company. I mean, why is Airbnb being singled out here?
13:32 Scott Galloway? That's an interesting question. I wouldn't have the day before earnings, I thought that there was a decent chance. I knew it was going to be volatile, but I thought it was more likely to be volatile of the upside. They had record revenue of 2.9 billion. That's up 29%. They had record profits of 1.2 billion. That's up 46%. And also, when we look at the earnings call, the transcript of Brian Chesky used the term record five times in his earnings call. And the fixed costs are lower due to COVID restructuring. He had a great line. He said that we've gone from being the Navy to the Navy SEALs, a small, lean, elite group. I thought that was fantastic. I thought the markets were going to like this earnings call, but they didn't. Now, the marketing costs are low. More than 90% of customers come directly to the site. I think this is a huge overlooked attribute
14:14 Scott Galloway? of Airbnb, and that is Meta and Google essentially have a stranglehold on anyone who wants to acquire customers online. You have to go through them. They pitch you against each other in this genius bidding and auction format, such that sometimes Meta and Google get 30, 50, 60% of the margin for a new customer. And what has Airbnb been able to do? They've been able to escape this stranglehold. People go direct to the site, Airbnb, so they don't have to pay this toll for 90% of their business. The result of that is that their margins are much greater. They have 41% net margins. Expedia has negative margins. They had a loss. Booking.com had 20% and Marriott had 13%. So Airbnb has triple the margins of
14:55 Scott Galloway? Marriott, and it's largely because they are online but don't have to pay these massive kind of monopoly-like toll booths. They also have incredible cash reserves, $12 billion in cash versus 8 billion in Expedia. Bookings.com also has 12 billion. Marriott just has half a billion. Now, a lot of this, you asked about why it's come down. Airbnb, by many metrics, looked expensive. Its price to sales was about 10x. It's probably down to 8 or 9x. Bookings is at 5x and Marriott is at 3x. So what you have is a bit of a normalization where the people have said, okay, Airbnb is an amazing company. There's no denying that. But should it be trading at twice the multiple of bookings and three times Marriott? And I think the marketplace has said, no. It deserves a premium, but not this level of premium. But I really like it here. I'm not selling any stock.
15:40 Scott Galloway? I already think that Airbnb is the best brand in the history of travel and hospitality. And I don't see, who's the number two to Airbnb? What is it? VRBO? It just seems like every number two is a distant number two. I like the leadership. I like the margins. I like the growth. They're profitable. I like the fact they've exited the stranglehold of Google and Meta. I'm just, I'm very bullish on the company and it remains my biggest investment.
16:01 Ed Elson? So do you feel like it's undervalued right now?
16:03 Scott Galloway? I don't know if it's undervalued because that multiple is still pretty strong. What I am comfortable with saying is I like it as a long-term hold. I think to own the biggest and best profitable company that's growing 30% a year, I think eventually those metrics or those numbers grow into the valuation and take it up from here. So, you know, don't do as I say, do as I do. I'm still holding. It's still my biggest position. I haven't sold any.
16:28 Ed Elson? You also mentioned that $12 billion of cash on the balance sheet. Do you think that they'll do anything with that? Do you think they'll reinvest it in the company? Maybe a stock buyback? Do you think that maybe they'll acquire a company?
16:39 Scott Galloway? I would bet they use it for stock buybacks. The more interesting question would be, will they make an acquisition? What is to Airbnb what Whole Foods was to Amazon? And that is, would Airbnb ever go vertical? Would they ever acquire another hotel company? Because there's just, there's a large segment, a large, very profitable segment, mostly business travels, but also people on vacation that want a hotel, want the amenities of a hotel. So do they add those amenities in to an Airbnb experience, some of what they're doing? Or do they acquire some kind of sole purpose or single purpose properties known as hotels? I think that'd be really interesting for them. I would predict in the next two to three years, they'll make an acquisition in the physical hotel space.
17:23 Ed Elson? We'll be right back after the break to look at Uber's earnings and check in on the Chinese markets.
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19:47 Ed Elson? We're back with Prof G Markets. Let's move on to Uber. Uber also had a really, really good quarter. The company posted $8.3 billion in revenue. That's a year-on-year increase of 72%. It also registered $1.2 billion in losses. A year ago, that number was $2.4 billion. So that's a big improvement. And unlike Airbnb, the market reacted well. Uber shares jumped more than 10% after the earnings call. What do you think of Uber as a company right now?
20:17 Scott Galloway? Uber's always been the company that's more promise than performance. And that is, it's never been profitable. But it looks like the light at the end of the tunnel has been illuminated again, and it's brighter than it's ever been. And when I say the light at the end of the tunnel, that is the prospect of it becoming a profitable company. Revenues, as you said, up 72%. Net loss cut in half. Every time we were doubled in revenue, its losses kept pace with its revenue growth. It wasn't getting any scale. Here we see the net benefits of scale, that the company's growing 72%. And as a result of that growth, it's able to spread its revenue across a fixed asset base, which means more is flowing to the bottom line, or at least reducing the negative bottom line.
21:00 Scott Galloway? And we saw their loss get cut in half. $512 million of the net loss was attributed to revaluations of Uber's equity investments and other ride-hailing companies, specifically China's Didi and Southeast Asia's Grab Holdings and self-driving startup Aurora Innovation. So if you net those out, it really lost around $700 million. Now, that's starting to feel like a company, when it does $8.3 billion, that's about 10% net loss, that if they can grow another 72% year-on-year, there's a shot they go profitable. And that's what the market's looking for. Its gross bookings are up 26% year-on-year. Its monthly active users, $124 million, was up 14% year-on-year. Their freight revenue was 1.8 billion. That's up from 400 million a year ago, growth of 350%.
21:45 Scott Galloway? That's impressive, mostly due to the acquisition of Transplace, a freight company. Its market cap is $56 billion. Lyft's market cap is 5 billion. The most obvious observation, the easy layup prediction here, Ed, is that Lyft will not be an independent company within the next 12 months. Either Uber acquires it, or another company looking for super app status, or maybe an automobile company that wants to go vertical into ride hailing. Like a General Motors maybe thinks that we can, for $6 billion, buy Lyft. And then we have kind of this vertical autonomous driving, or vertical ride hailing company that just buys GM cars as a means of showing off our new electric vehicles. The obvious one here, though, is if the DOJ would clear it, that Uber acquires Lyft.
22:28 Scott Galloway? Lyft is, Lyft should not be an independent company, and every day that goes on, its valuation is probably going to go down.
22:33 Ed Elson? You also mentioned their freight business. Here are just some numbers that I thought were pretty crazy. So this quarter, mobility, i.e. the taxiing, that made up 46% of revenue. Delivery, i.e. Uber Eats, was 33%, and freight was 21%. In the same quarter last year, freight only made up 8%. So it feels like this is a pretty massive business now, and maybe this is why Uber is suddenly on this path to profitability. What do you think of that unit of the freight business?
23:06 Scott Galloway? Well, I think some of that was because of their acquisition, but it's really interesting. About 10 years ago, at DLD, I got pilloried because I said that I thought a competitor to Amazon was Uber, that the big advantage of Amazon was last mile delivery, and that Uber would ultimately leverage their infrastructure and get into that. And it looks as if, to a certain extent, they are. And my friend, Richard Kramer, would say, who's the media and tech analyst, would say that Uber is a platform for connecting buyers and sellers. And right now, it's mostly people who want to hail a car and drivers who own a car. But they're also getting into freight, right? They're also getting into people who want to buy food from a restaurant and have it delivered. So this was a staggering quarter for them. There's just no getting around it. And I've been very critical of Uber.
23:49 Scott Galloway? I hope that they continue to get hit hard for their classification of workers. Their workers should be classified, in my view, as employees. The good thing about this, or the hopeful thing about this, that should help Uber and make it less of a mendacious company, is that prices have gone up. And they have pricing power, which means they can pay their drivers more, which maybe means that a driver, when you adjust for the maintenance in gasoline, isn't making less than minimum wage and that Uber isn't using software and preying on people who may not have many other employment options to pay them substandard wages. So I see Uber is less mendacious than I used to. Now it's just mendacious with a small m, not a capital M.
24:36 Ed Elson? China's factory activity declined in October due to the government's tight control on COVID outbreaks. The Purchasing Managers Index, which measures factory production, employment, and inventory, fell from 50.1 in September to 49.2. That might not seem like much, but any reading below 50 indicates that these activities are contracting. And despite that troubling drop, President Xi Jinping has doubled down on his zero COVID policy. During China's twice a decade National People's Congress, Xi Jinping said that China was waging a, quote, "all-out people's war to stop the spread of the virus." He also made no mention of how this was all stifling economic growth or its impact on the markets.
25:20 Ed Elson? Scott, what do you make of this?
25:22 Scott Galloway? What's interesting is if you look at the Chinese stock market, all right, it's off 34% year-to-date versus the Dow off 12%. The Hang Seng is the second worst performing major global index after Russia's. And in the average forward PE ratio of stocks in the S and P 500 is 15 times versus the Hang Seng at five times. And essentially what the CCP and Xi have said is that we've, I think, we've looked at America and we've looked at these individuals who amassed so much wealth to become more powerful than government. No to that. We look at companies that collect a ton of data and have more insight into consumer patterns than we, the government. No, we're not down with that. We look at entire sectors that may be helping just rich people, such as the tutoring industrial complex. No, we don't like that.
26:07 Scott Galloway? And they are willing to kneecap the markets and even dampen their own economy if it means Putting what they believe is the right version of their society first, which oftentimes includes control or command and control from the CCP. So it's just interesting that we're all about dollars first. We're all about the markets first. And the CCP has said, no, we're all about China slash the CCP slash the middle class first. I think it's fascinating. They're sort of decoupling, which is a little bit dangerous for us. Relationships haven't been this cold and frosty with China in a long time. And some of that is they appear to have disentangled from this Western capitalist focus on the dollar and economic growth model at any cost.
26:52 Scott Galloway? So the test of time will tell whether it was a good or a bad move. In the short run, it's bad for the world because US-China relations are at a low. And when the two largest economies in the world get cross-eyed, it's not good for anybody.
27:06 Ed Elson? Okay, thanks, Scott. Let's take a look at the week ahead. We've got earnings from Lyft, Disney, Rivian and Roblox. And we're also watching the midterms on Tuesday and inflation data for October on Thursday. Do you have any predictions, Scott?
27:20 Scott Galloway? Well, we already made our prediction. Lyft is acquired within the next 12 months. Makes no sense as an independent company. And just as exciting, my Deadpool two costume came today. Everybody tells me I look like Ryan Reynolds after he survived a horrific fire, but I'm excited about that. So my prediction is definitely next year, in exactly 11 months, three weeks and two days, I will be Deadpool. That's all for this episode. You can find an unfiltered version on YouTube each week. Our producers are Claire Miller and Jason Stavert. Special thanks to Catherine Dillon, Ed Elson and the Prop G Media team. If you like what you heard, please follow, download and subscribe. Thank you for listening to Prop G Markets from the Box Media Podcast Network. We will catch you next week.
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