Trump Extends Ceasefire + DOJ Indicts SPLC | PBD Podcast #782

Patrick Bet-David, Tom Ellsworth, and Brandon Aceto are joined by David Rosenberg as they cover President Trump extending the Iran ceasefire and escalating U. S.-China tensions with Xi Jinping, Iran seizing cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz threatening global oil supply and shipping lanes, airline flight cancellations driven by rising jet fuel prices and energy market volatility, Trump’s tariff policy warning and Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve confirmation hearing, DOJ indictment allegations involving the Southern Poverty Law Center, and Tim Cook stepping down as Apple CEO alongside Amazon CEO Andy Jassy’s message to Gen Z workers. -------- Ⓜ️ CONNECT ON MINNECT: ⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kSVkso⁠ https://bit.ly/4kSVkso Ⓜ️ PBD PODCAST CIRCLES: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP 👔 BET-DAVID CONSULTING: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4lzQph2⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 🥃 BOARDROOM CIGAR LOUNGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj 🇰 KALSHI: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://kalshi.com/pbd⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ http://kalshi.com/pbd⁠ 💬 TEXT US: Text “PODCAST” to 310-340-1132 to get the latest updates in real-time! ABOUT US:Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:16Speaker 00

  My handshake is better than anything I ever signs, right here.

• 0:21Patrick Bet-David?

  You are a one of one?

• 0:21Speaker 00

  My son's right there.

• 0:22Speaker 02

  I don't think I've ever said this before.

• 0:28Speaker 02

  The global economy and markets.

• 0:30Patrick Bet-David?

  I love it. We're gonna talk about that, folks. We're gonna talk about global economy and the markets today. We have an expert in the house. David Rosenberg, who has a article he writes every morning, Breakfast with Dave. We got a lot of things to talk about. Many things going on. I mean, I got these 11 stories I'm going through. It's like, sometimes you want Mondays to be stacked with a lot of stories, but today's a Wednesday with a lot of stories that broke last night. Let me go through a couple of them for you. Number one, just at 4:25 this morning, less than five hours ago, three ships were hit, two of them were seized by Iran. One of them is Panamanian ship, the other one is a Greek ship,

• 1:09Patrick Bet-David?

  and they've been seized by Iran, and apparently the third one, they're trying to figure out where it's from. They don't know yet. Maybe we'll break it when the story breaks and we'll share it with you as well. We gotta talk about that. Tariffs, the president said a few things about tariffs, saying he will remember the companies that don't seek tariff refunds. And a lot of people are saying, wait a minute, what does that mean? People have some questions. We'll talk about it. Trump encourages companies not to seek tariff refunds. UPS and FedEx have began filing for tariffs refunds. Lot to talk about there. Tim Cook, moving on.

• 1:42Patrick Bet-David?

  And, you know, I wanna say Steve Jobs passed away in 06. Can you verify? No. Was it 11? I think so. 11, yeah. And so he's been on there, and when he passed away... Uh, Apple was worth a hundred billion. Now it's worth a few trillion. And now they have a new CEO. So there's a lot of ruckus. Some people are excited, some people are not. Uh, I'm personally, I like Tim Cook. I know a lot of people have some criticism of him. But we'll talk about, uh, Tim Cook as the new CEO. Uh, Tim Cook leaving and the new CEO coming in. And the new CEO, you can't find a lot on him. You know, he sounds like a pretty solid guy, but we'll see. Well, we'll talk about him as well. Virginia, lots going on with Virginia. It's a story that broke. Uh, Virginia voters approve Democrats, redistricting plan, giving the party a midterm election boost.

• 2:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Um, so we'll see what happens there. Next story is Trump confronts G. Apparently there's a mysterious gift that was sent to Iran in a cargo ships. And, uh, market's trying to find out what's in that gift. Was it a hundred dollar gift card to Amazon? You know, was it like maybe, you know, some Chinese? I don't know what it is. Everybody's trying to find out. They're speculating. We won't speculate. We will talk about it. Maybe we'll do a little bit of speculating. Kevin Warsh was out there at his, uh, uh, what do you call it? Uh, when he would, at the confirming hearing, right? Am I saying it correctly? And there was some couple fiery moments and he said something. Where, you know, he said, look, I'm gonna do what I'm gonna do. I'm not taking this job because of, uh, I think Elizabeth Warner was pushing him, if I'm not mistaken. And then Anthropic CEO went to the White House.

• 3:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Why did he go to the White House? He could have gone to Toronto, you know? He could have gone to different places. Chose to go to White House. What's the outcome? What's the conversation about? Cash Patel yesterday and, um, uh, what's his name? Todd Blanch were talking about, uh, uh, this thing called SPLC, Southern Poverty Law Center. And what the FBI found out. And then, you know, Cash was pushed on a couple of things. Having to do with the, the, you know, it was a story that came out and drinking and all this stuff. And Cash pushed back. It was pretty intense. Newsworthy, it's good for TV, and so we'll talk about that jet fuel. Few stories about the jet fuel that's actually a real thing that's going on.

• 3:55Patrick Bet-David?

  Lufthansa, which I used to fly on a lot when I lived in Germany, Lufthansa planning to cancel 20,000 short haul flights to save jet fuel. 20,000 short haul flights to save on jet fuel, and that's not just the only story. United Airlines slash in 2026 forecast as fuel costs surge. And that story leads to the next one. What a looming jet fuel shortage could mean for summer travel. Will people travel less? Will they travel more? Who knows? Andy Jassy, there's a clip that came out telling Gen Z that if you want to be successful, you have to pay your dues first. How dare he say something like that? Isn't that offensive? Don't you find that a little bit offensive, David? Shouldn't they get it?

• 4:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Shouldn't they be entitled to just a $200,000 salary day one when they graduate? How dare a CEO of a multi-trillion dollar company who is super wealthy telling others you have to pay your dues first? Give me a flip and break. That's disrespectful. And then at the same time, story comes out saying that Gen Z would prefer GLP-1 as benefits instead of PTO. If you offer GLP-1 as benefits instead of PTO, we would like that. That would make us more attractive to want to work for a company. And so what does Amazon announce on the same exact day? That they officially are selling GLP on weight loss programs. Promising fast, convenient access. This is a CNBC story. We'll get into that as well. And then I got one other one if we get to it. Who knows if we got the time at the end?

• 5:25Patrick Bet-David?

  At this point, if we have to cover all these stories, we're going to be here for about six hours. So brace for impact.

• 5:31Patrick Bet-David?

  You know, so having said that, before we get into the podcast, I want to share something with you guys because a lot of people started asking about it and it's becoming more and more a topic that's coming up. We don't do any major sponsorships on the podcast. You won't see us doing a podcast and announcing seven sponsors. We haven't done that yet. We're talking to some big companies. We'll entertain and have that. We have some things that we'll invest in. And if we do, we'll talk about it. There are certain companies I invest in. I'll gladly talk about it. But when it comes out to the Vault Conference, if there's one thing that I can tell you, it's 12,000 people in one room this year in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Arena. And a lot of business owners want to get in front of these qualified customers. So Rob, I don't know if you have the pitch deck for,

• 6:15Patrick Bet-David?

  go on that real quick if you could. Go on that if you could and go to the sponsorship all the way at the top. Yeah, if you can click on that. It explains, go a little bit lower. I don't know if the slides are there or not. Go a little bit lower, lower, lower, lower, lower. Keep going lower. Keep going lower. That one right there if you could. So if somebody on the title sponsor side, your logo would be on the MGM. Go to the next slide if you could. So you can find out which of these you can have your small business owner, small business in front of while the customers are coming through and taking a look at the event. Keep going, Rob. You could be on stage. You know, there could be videos. Keep going, Rob. Just keep going every second. You could be on the app while people are going on there. Manual that's going to go to 12,000 folks. And if you want to play the clip and then we'll start the podcast. Go for it, Rob. Here's what it looks like for sponsors at the Vault Conference.

• 7:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Go ahead.

• 7:01Speaker 03

  In 2019, the Vault Conference started with just 420 visionaries, 1,500 in 2022, 3,000 in 2023, 6,000 in 2024, nearly 8,000 in 2025. And in 2026, we're expecting over 12,000 entrepreneurs, CEOs and business leaders. For the first time ever, we're heading west to the iconic MGM Grand in Las Vegas, our biggest stage yet. Over 6,000 attendees are decision makers, running companies from $25 million to over $500 million. More than 2,000 CEOs lead teams of 75-plus employees.

• 7:46Speaker 03

  They come from around the world to grow, scale and do business. And they don't just attend, they engage.

• 7:54Speaker 03

  Last year, 85% interacted with sponsors onsite. The response from attendees was overwhelmingly positive, generating qualified leads and long-term relationships. And even more powerful, over 71% went further, actively opting in to connect directly with sponsors through their dedicated Mynect Circle, our official event app that enables real one-on-one conversations, qualified introductions, and relationships that extend well beyond the conference floor. We make sure your brand is impossible to miss. From a premium custom booth to brand visibility on the Las Vegas Strip. With a reach of 38 million-plus weekly impressions

• 8:38Speaker 03

  and approximately 419,000 pedestrians per day, your logo on every attendee's badge, moments onstage with Patrick himself, or your ads played on our screens. Our sponsorship packages are built to put your brand at the center of it all. Our sponsors have included industry leaders like PayPal, Stefano Ricci, Tony Robbins, Project Rock, finally, closers IO, and ZOa Energy. Your brand could be next. Sponsoring the Vault Conference isn't just an investment in a conference. You're one handshake away from scaling your business. Opportunities are limited. Secure your spot today before the Vault closes.

• 9:20Patrick Bet-David?

  There you go. So if you want to learn more about sponsoring there, we're going to put the link below, Rob, for people to be able to learn more about it. Submit your application. If you work for a company saying, "I'd like you to be there," go to your CEO, go to your executive team, go to your CMO, share it with them. The pitch deck is there, they can learn more about it. And hopefully, we'll see you at the Vault Conference. Having said that, let's get right into it. Rob, I don't see a story about Iran this morning because it just broke. So if you want to pick one of them, this morning at 4:25, Iran's attack at around the Strait of Hormuz, three ships, two of them they seized, one is a Panamanian ship, one is a ship from Greece. That, we have different names for them as well, Rob. You can pull it up. Yeah, those are the ships. So while this happened...

• 10:04Patrick Bet-David?

  You know, this morning, if you look at the market oil prices, if you want to go to it, it's up a little bit. It's 9137. There's not been a negative reaction to this yet. The president came out yesterday, and I believe he said indefinitely, the ceasefire continues indefinitely, but not a date. And so we don't know when it's going to stop. We don't know when it... Is this it, Rob? Yes, sir. Okay, go for it. Play this clip, and then we'll get right into it.

• 10:30Speaker 04

  To be clear, you're saying that you need at least the prospects for a signed deal today and tomorrow, or else you would resume bombing Iran?

• 10:45Speaker 05

  Well, I expect to be bombing, because I think that's a better attitude to go in with. But we're ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go. They are absolutely incredible. You know, I built the military in my first term. I'm using it now. The military, when I took it over from Barack Hussein Obama, they had just... It was so depleted, so sad. And I built it in my first term. You remember those big numbers. You talked to me about it once. That's a lot of money for military. I built it. We did a great job with our military. And we're using it now and rebuilding it, too.

• 11:17Patrick Bet-David?

  We know it's indefinitely. Sean Hannity said, based on some intel, I think, Rob, if you got that clip, that at any point, you know, attack could happen. Go for it, Rob.

• 11:29Speaker 06

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• 12:27Speaker 08

  Now, more than ever, we need someone on our side. But Rob Whitman? Whitman's votes drove up costs, cut Medicaid, and risked 350,000 Virginians' health care to pay for tax breaks for himself and his donors. He's not on our side. Shannon Taylor will fight corruption, cut taxes, and bring down costs. This November, vote for Shannon Taylor. She's for us. Paid for by HMP, the House Majority PAC dot com. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

• 12:58Speaker 09

  And welcome to Hannity. Tonight, we start with this Fox News alert. Now, new reporting tonight. Sources telling me that the ceasefire extension in Iran announced by the president, that will be short-lived unless a deal is reached quickly. Now, earlier today, the president announced that American strikes will not yet resume, and he will allow peace negotiations to continue. According to my sources, mostly, this was out of respect for the Pakistani mediators and as a final push for peace for the war-torn Iranian people. The president is also giving more time to Iran's regime to attempt to coordinate and actually communicate with each other. Tom, what do you think is going on here?

• 13:40Tom Ellsworth?

  So, what I think is going on is the president is doing what he always does. Well, maybe I will, maybe I won't. This is what I think, maybe I won't. I think this is literally a day-by-day ceasefire. He's trying to keep them unbalanced. And unfortunately, they said that Vance was pulled back. I guess he's not going to the next, the previous public...

• 14:06Tom Ellsworth?

  What did they say? Previously, they had made a public statement about what the next negotiation would be. So that's the one where we can see them all at the table and we see the media talking about it. But there's things going on behind closed doors. I think Trump's trying to keep him off balance. I think he's trying to get a deal done. I think Whitkoff is working in the background. But the public, you know, everybody sits at the big, beautiful table and everything. That's not happening. Tomorrow, Thursday, advance was pulled back.

• 14:36Patrick Bet-David?

  There you go. David, your thoughts?

• 14:38Speaker 02

  Well, the question is, who are the Americans talking to? Like, who's the Iranian delegation? And who's in charge in Iran right now? Because my sense is that it's not the clerics, it's the IRGC. And they are definitely hardened. So, you know, my thoughts are this. I think the bombing campaign is over. I think that Trump pays attention to the stock market. And I think he's paying attention to the public opinion polls. And I think he has

• 15:16Speaker 02

  to take note of the fact that his MAGA base is starting to deteriorate in terms of the support for the war. So I think he's looking for an off-ramp. And I think that we're just further in this age of disinformation. It's not just the Iranians, but it's also, you know, what we're hearing at a Truth Social. I mean, we were bombarded with no fewer than seven messages from his social media account last Friday. And next thing you know, the Dow was up 1,000 points. It's hard to know where this leads. I think that I agree that I think Trump is looking for an off-ramp. We don't know what sort of deal. What sort

• 15:58Speaker 02

  of deal are we really expecting? Because the Iranian list of demands and the US list of demands, there's no overlap. And, you know, as I go through this in my head, I'm there thinking that Trump, I don't think he can bomb anymore. I think it's a classic case of Einstein's definition of insanity. Like, where's the bombing? What's it going to accomplish that it hasn't accomplished? Right now, what Iran has found out is that it has an economic engine that it can stranglehold the world through the Strait. I think a lot of us already knew that, because it's not

• 16:41Speaker 02

  the first time this has happened, but on this scale. So you have a situation where, as you mentioned about the strikes by Iran on those ships in the Strait, they're demonstrating that they're still in control. And the US still has this blockade.

• 16:58Patrick Bet-David?

  But does this break the ceasefire by them attacking those three ships? I mean, if you're talking ceasefire...

• 17:04Speaker 02

  That's really up to Trump, right? You would think that it would break the ceasefire. You would think that Hezbollah, which wasn't mentioned, I think just sent a few rockets into northern Israel. Did that break the ceasefire? So this is almost, you know, very loose definitions. It's clear to me firstly that Trump wants an off-ramp. We just don't know who he's talking to, who's in charge in Iran, and what any deal is going to look like. Because how can we walk away from this war with the Iranians still having those

• 17:44Speaker 02

  thousand pounds of enriched uranium? And how do we walk away with Iran not abandoning its nuclear ambitions? I don't really know how Donald Trump is going to wiggle his way out of this. I think in the end, what he wants to do is walk away and declare victory on his terms. And then the Iranians are going to declare victory on their terms. And my biggest concern is, do we just end up back where we were with Barack Hussein Obama and the deal that he struck in 2015? Do we just end up right back there, and that's all this damage?

• 18:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Are you speculating, or you're thinking we're going to end up there with 20 billion?

• 18:28Speaker 02

  Well, I'm always scenario building. You know, there's...

• 18:35Speaker 02

  There's a wide range of outcomes, but you have to have a base case scenario. You know, the thing is that Trump is under a lot of domestic political pressure. I think he's coming under some pressure in his own party. We have the midterm elections, all these things that Iran doesn't have to worry about. And then we have to consider all along, you know, how we've come to this place. And this isn't like a war over land. This is a war over radical ideology and fanaticism. This is a different sort of war. You know, when we had the Cold War with Russia, it wasn't really dealing with anybody who was irrational. Khrushchev was not irrational.

• 19:19Speaker 02

  Now, that wasn't religious ideology, that you could argue that was more economic ideology. But you were dealing at least with rational actors. And this time around, you're dealing with irrational actors, and you're dealing with a regime that has no value on human life, even the human life of their own population, as we've seen. So I think the template you want to look back to, and this is what I would advise the president if I was there, is just, you know, know what you're getting into here. Because from 1980 to 1988, Iran and Iraq fought an eight-year war.

• 20:01Speaker 02

  Now, Saddam Hussein wanted to create a buffer. You could argue that was partly about land, but it was also about ideology, because it was right after the revolution. And Hussein was very concerned that this radical ideology was going to spread into Iraq. After year two of that war, Saddam Hussein actually offered an olive branch to the Ayatollah to end the war, to call for a permanent truce. Iran walked away, and the war lasted another six years.

• 20:38Speaker 02

  Over 500,000 deaths. So that's what we're dealing with right now. So there's a wide range of outcomes. I think that was obvious to me. What's obvious to me, I mean, this is now, you know, what is a deadline right now? What's a deadline? Now the deadline is over and now it's basically, you know, there's no timeline attached. What does that tell us?

• 21:00Patrick Bet-David?

  What's ideal for you? In your opinion? What you just?

• 21:02Speaker 02

  Well, I'm, you know what? I'm pretty hardcore. You know, I'm in the John Bolton camp, okay?

• 21:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Really?

• 21:09Speaker 02

  Absolutely. Because I think that, you know, you've got to finish, well, you've got to finish what you started. What was the goal? You know, the problem I have is that President Trump says, well, we did it, we did achieve regime change. Well, that's a lot of information right there. We, you know, he's going to say, we actually got one of the things that we wanted, which was regime change, but we got a worse regime. And then he says, well, these are more regional people than we had before. Well, you know, I don't really think so. And then it's a matter of what people have to know is that it's the revolution guard are the ones really in control. And they're hardened. I think that you ought to finish what you start.

• 21:48Speaker 02

  And I think that the ultimate goal was really to get that 60% enriched uranium out of Iranian hands and to permanently end their nuclear ambitions. Now, the reality is that you actually would need to have a new and more peaceful regime to do that. I think that's next to impossible. The question is, because when you think about what the spark was, the spark was the uprisings that we saw, the popular uprisings back in January. And how do you incentivize? I mean, now, you could actually argue that the Iranians were prepared because they killed, let's say the number's 30,000.

• 22:32Speaker 02

  Now, the Iranian population is scared to go out and do it again. And that to me is really, when you're talking about regime change, I think that... That always should have been the goal because when you think about how do we end this nuclear ambition, I think that nuclear bomb in Iranian hands is a danger for the entire world. How do you accomplish that? And then you look at history. How do you change regimes? You don't do it from the outside. You do it from the inside. And what you need to do is you need to get to a place where the army, the regular army, I'm not even talking about the IRGC, I'm talking about the regular army, there's a million

• 23:14Speaker 02

  of them. Now, I don't know, I'd like to hear, what I'd like to hear is that that's who Wicoff and Jared Kushner and Vance are talking to, are their back channels into the actual regular Iranian army. Because when you look at previous revolutions, King Louis XVI, the revolution was successful only when the army turned their back on the king.

• 23:43Patrick Bet-David?

  That hasn't happened yet.

• 23:44Speaker 02

  No, when you look at Nicholas II, okay, it's only when the army realized that their survival was at stake that they abandoned the Tsar.

• 23:53Patrick Bet-David?

  How do you get there?

• 23:54Speaker 02

  Well, I sort of...

• 23:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Because you gave the weapons to Kurds, they kept it, so it's not like they're passing it to the people.

• 24:01Speaker 02

  I like that, I like that idea, but Turkey shot it down. And, you know, I mean, there's always risks about having a revolution, like, and you'll create this political vacuum, and let's face it, Iran is not a homogeneous society. But the thing is that, how do you incentivize the people and the army to turn against the clerics? And to me, you know, that's why, look, the whole notion of bombing power plants and bridges, or even, you know, using the strait, the blockade to block food imports and medical supplies. And then there's

• 24:45Speaker 02

  all sorts of commotion and noise around, well, would the US be breaking international law? Well, never mind about all the international laws that the Iranians have broken. But you see, there's just more political pressure on Trump. But, you know, the thing is that, and this is going to sound pretty radical... And I don't want to sound mean, I'm not a mean person, but the question is how do you incentivize the Iranian people into another uprising, which they did in January, but now they have fear because they know that the Guard are going to kill them. I always thought the Kurds were at least a good start, it would be actually a very good distraction to the Revolutionary Guard.

• 25:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 25:27Speaker 02

  You know, can Mossad or the IDF get involved? I don't know, they're under a short leash themselves.

• 25:35Patrick Bet-David?

  They're for sure involved.

• 25:36Speaker 02

  But they're also under, you know, they're under, you know, Trump's control as well. To me, that would be the most effective endgame. How it's accomplished, look, I'm not a, I can't, I don't claim to be a military expert, I'm an interested observer, but I would say that without regime change, nothing's going to change, and then it's a matter of how you accomplish it. Would you accomplish it through, say, real boots on the ground? Like, you'd need like, you'd probably need like a million troops.

• 26:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Brendan, what do you think? It'd be interesting. What do you think yourself?

• 26:12Speaker 11

  I mean, I agree, and that's why I said a week or two ago, I said that I think they should use an Iran-Contra model. I mean, any revolution that's ever happened, it's been through rebel groups, through militia groups, that the CIA or Mossad type of group helps organize, helps them get together, and helps smuggle weapons to them, but that doesn't exist in Iran, there's no organized militia or rebel group, and that's really how an uprising could actually happen. Like, you know, right now it's just a bunch of people without weapons that get slaughtered by the government when they organize in public. So, I agree, there really is no off-ramp with this in terms of changing leadership in an effective way. Like, no matter what, even if you take out the guy who's in charge right now, somebody just like him from the IRGC is going to be put in his place. And until that whole mindset or that whole IRGC regime is gone, then it's the same situation, probably even worse.

• 26:57Speaker 11

  So, even if we do agree to a deal, there's not an off-ramp that exists with the same group. And I just looked it up, actually, 31% of the military is part of the IRGC, but the IRGC does control all the military weapons, so that's what that looks like in that regard. But, um, yeah, it's a, it's a, it's a bad situation, because I don't see what that option is to like totally eliminate it, because... It's not like they're in one place, it's not like it's one group of people, like a small group of people.

• 27:21Patrick Bet-David?

  But saying you're extending the ceasefire indefinitely, and then these guys break the ceasefire.

• 27:28Speaker 11

  Immediately.

• 27:29Patrick Bet-David?

  And they're saying, "We did not." They're saying, "We're enforcing the law," because they're acting as if they created new laws. So because of that, they're enforcing new laws. Iran's like, "We didn't do anything wrong. We're just kind of doing our part." You know, it's a, this is not breaking a ceasefire. But in a way, Iran is trying to say is, "Look, we're, they're not showing their real players." Not real players. They're not showing their ethical players here.

• 27:51Speaker 11

  Oh, they're not.

• 27:52Patrick Bet-David?

  So if that's the case, what do you do? So i- i- i- if his position is, "Well, Trump wants to get out of this because he's paying attention to the market. Market's doing better. Everything is up. You know, earnings are coming through really good. Numbers are coming through really good. People are pretty optimistic. The market, I don't know where S and P is today. It was at 7,000 and hey. So, but that's a different story between Main Street and Wall Street. S and P's at 7149 right now. Okay, up almost three quarters of a point. So, but if he goes back and attacks, if he goes back, let's just say we hear the news. Boom, we're bombing again. What happens to the market? Two to three percent adjustment?

• 28:28Speaker 11

  Yeah, it goes back the other way. S and P goes back down to 69.

• 28:31Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. So, but if he's, if he's gonna do it, Iran's telling you, "We're not ethical negotiators."

• 28:38Speaker 11

  Right.

• 28:38Patrick Bet-David?

  This guy who was Obama's, or I don't know, was he Obama's or Clinton's? Clinton's guy in 1996. He says Iran's never been an honest negotiator. They always lie. So what are you gonna do now? You're dealing with somebody that's ethical now? Who knows? But this leads me to the next story while we're talking about this. Trump confronts Xi. Okay, he, the surprise gift, is this on the addendum, Rob, or is this on the main story? Main story. Trump confronts Xi as US forces seize Chinese ship carrying mysterious gift to Iran. What do you mean a mysterious gift to Iran? Here's a question when the president's being asked about it. Go for it.

• 29:14Speaker 05

  It'll hurt them militarily. They use the bridges for their weapons, for their missile movements. You know, they're trying to move the missiles because we've obliterated most of their missiles and they're trying to move their missiles around. Even during the ceasefire, which I think was a good thing because we're totally loaded up. We have so much ammo. We have so much of everything that we've, like, much, much more powerful than it was. Four or five weeks ago, so we've used this to restock and they probably have done a little bit of restock and we caught a ship yesterday that had some things on it, which wasn't very nice, a gift from China perhaps, I don't know, but I was a little surprised, but because I have a very good relationship and I thought I had an understanding with President Xi, but that's all right, that's the way war goes, right?

• 29:57Speaker 05

  But I will tell you that we have, our military is incredible, what we've done, I mean, think of it, in the first three days, we took out their entire navy, a hundred Tom, what do you think's going on here?

• 30:08Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, he just said we took out their entire navy, I'd like to know who's shooting at the ships, because supposedly those were, were those fast boats, or is this a navy, navy boat, because supposedly it was ship to ship firing that was happening first thing this morning, number one. Number two is, we've known China's been trying to help. China got busted, end of last week, sending in, and I gave you the chemical name that we found on that ship, which is basically the raw powder needed to make rocket fuel, to make, you know, high volatility explosive that goes off in a constrained manner is a rocket engine, that's what it is. And so they were helping them with that.

• 30:50Tom Ellsworth?

  So the gift from China, they've been trying to enable them, they're not going to put the satellite imagery and sharing satellite coordinates that they shared of the US bases that were located around the Middle East and UAE, telling, hey, here's the aircraft on the ground in UAE, right here, right here, right here. China shared that stuff going back four weeks ago. So if something's on a ship, it's either a weapon, and China's been very reluctant to openly share, you know, you know, arms transport, but what were they sending? Rocket fuel. So I think that that is still going on, and I think what this is also Trump saying, I think he's talking to Xi.

• 31:35Tom Ellsworth?

  And rather than say to Xi, "Hey, I know what you're doing," he just casually mentions to the media, "Yeah, China had a gift over there going for him," and I think he's letting people know how much we know about China's assistant. I think that's... You know how when you want to talk to somebody, Pat, but you don't pick up the phone and call them? You can talk in other ways, and I think he's talking to Xi. "We know what you just did. We know what you sent, and we caught it."

• 32:01Patrick Bet-David?

  What do you think it was?

• 32:03Speaker 06

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• 32:33Speaker 08

  Now, more than ever, we need someone on our side. But Rob Whitman? Whitman's votes drove up costs, cut Medicaid, and risked 350,000 Virginians' health care to pay for tax breaks for himself and his donors. He's not on our side. Shannon Taylor will fight corruption, cut taxes, and bring down costs. This November, vote for Shannon Taylor. She's for us. Paid for by HMP, the House Majority PAC dot com. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

• 33:05Tom Ellsworth?

  I don't know. Can you fit one drone into a box and gift wrap it with a ribbon?

• 33:12Patrick Bet-David?

  You need more than one drone, though.

• 33:14Tom Ellsworth?

  I'm just, well, I'm being a little facetious, but, I mean, to be honest, I don't really care what it was. The reality is this. Again, we are in an age of misinformation, and the markets, as you're saying, this is a headline-driven stock market, but we know that there are two countries...

• 33:33Speaker 02

  That are very powerful, that have a vested interest in this war lasting longer and costing America that much more, and one is Russia, one is China. And remember that why it was so important to remove Maduro was because Venezuela at that point was selling sanctioned oil at a discount to China. That's what it was all about. It all comes back down really to China. And China has been supplying these armaments to Iran for a long time and even during this war. Again, when I talk about misinformation, no, I'm sorry.

• 34:18Speaker 02

  Iran's military capacity has not been obliterated. It's been seriously impaired. But from what I've been hearing from my sources, we've only destroyed 50% of their drone capacity and 50% of their bombing capacity. So they've been impaired. I'll tell you what the Iranians are probably thinking is that they can outlast Trump. They can outlast Trump. And especially if those reports are true, that they've been impaired but not disabled, they believe, and that's what their actions are telling you. And that's what we have to, what is the interpretation of what Iran's doing right now?

• 35:02Speaker 02

  They think they can outlast Trump. And I didn't just say that it's all about the markets, it's also about the public opinion polls. It's also about the polls now showing, we already knew that the House was probably going Democrat, but now the Senate's in play. So you have a Democrat sweep in November. And there's Fishers already within Republican Party. So he has to pay attention to the internal politics, which the regime in Iran doesn't have to worry about. So I believe that they believe that they can outlast Trump. And so, and the reality is that, is anybody surprised that China is...

• 35:44Speaker 02

  Is helping Iran in this in this cause or Russia for that matter.

• 35:48Patrick Bet-David?

  So apparently.

• 35:48Speaker 02

  Who's surprised about that?

• 35:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, apparently what it is is it's missile related chemicals is what they're speculating was in there. In there missile related chemicals, according to Washington Times is what was in the gift. Brandon.

• 36:01Speaker 11

  Yeah, and this is why it's such a shame that the Supreme Court did what they did with terrorists. Because I don't think it's a coincidence that China's feeling bold like this where they could do something that they know Trump would be upset about, that they know would be considered, you know, possibly a hostile action when Trump's biggest lever, biggest tool against them was taken away. And this is a unsettling thing and you know, there's a time for like the last 30 years where a country, countries wouldn't dare to do something like this, but now China's kind of feeling our weakness. It looks like, I mean, the Center for, was it CSIS Center for Strategic International Studies did a report showing that it would be two weeks that we had run out of weapons if we were to have a conflict in the South China Sea right now.

• 36:45Speaker 11

  We used 40% of our THAAD missiles in the first 16 days of the Iran conflict. And it's going to take until end of 2027 for us to restock that. So like we have the, yeah, technology, we have money, we have, but not the supplies for something like this. So I think China's kind of poking us, testing us with this, you know, this is like, that's a bold thing for them to do. I know they've been sent, doing, going back and forth with them, basic things, but to send, you know, long range missile stuff to Iran, that's a.

• 37:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Who's this from? It's this live men, US found Chinese gift for Iran. Trump after ship carrying missile chemicals seized in Hormuz, Beijing rejects claim. Trump said that China is possibly providing Iran with lethal aid or weapons or move that would test a US red line. The development comes days after US military sees an Iranian vessel with Chinese chemical missile shipments.

• 37:31Speaker 11

  So it's like they're seeing what they can get away with, you know?

• 37:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Are you surprised though with China? I don't know if I'm surprised. I don't know if I'm sitting there saying I'm surprised with them doing this because What they do 20 years ago though? No, but but think about what they're stronger as well, but the but the but the reality of it is, look what we've done to China. Just think what's hap- what America's done to China the last 12 months. Yeah. So you were getting your stuff from Venezuela. That's gone. That discount is gone. You were getting what percentage of your oil out of Iran? I don't know what the number is. It's a massive number they're getting from Iran. Okay? And so now that's been locked up. You're not happy about that and they were giving it to you as a discount. And the Panama Canal is part of Venezuela.

• 38:15Patrick Bet-David?

  CK Hutchinson is who owns Panama Canal, the 43 ports, whatever it is, two or three of them that are the main ones in Panama on both sides. Now you mean to tell me you lost that because the Panama government said you don't have any jurisdiction here and then now they're suing them to say, now you lose that chokehold for America if you wanted to really piss off Americans, say, don't F with us, because I'm going to destroy your Panama Canal and I'm going to mess with. That's now gone. So one by one, but so you know what? What would you do if you were Chinese? Anything you can to. That's what I'm saying. So if if you're cornering me and I'm China, I'm sitting there saying, oh, you want to do this? I have to make sure Iran makes it. I have to make sure I'm on Iran's side. So then what other leverage are you going to have?

• 38:59Patrick Bet-David?

  Because China's going to say, you need my minerals. You still don't have Greenland. Or refineries in the US, which that's that would give us the ability to have those too. Yeah, yeah. So this is a very interesting, but I'm not surprised that China says, no, that wasn't us. And two, they're testing their limits to see what they can get in there. Yeah. Okay, because guess what happens? What's the worst case scenario with the Strait of Hormuz that happens to China? What is the worst thing that can happen to China in regard to Strait of Hormuz? That just never.

• 39:28Tom Ellsworth?

  We control it and we control Carg Island.

• 39:31Patrick Bet-David?

  Bingo. If US controls Carg Island and we control Strait of Hormuz, what the hell are you talking about? Now, that's not the Western Hemisphere. That's what? Yeah, Eastern Hemisphere. That's the part where China, there's no way in the world, China can control Iran. China can't control America if we take control. Right. So this is a very rough place for China. Your thoughts?

• 39:57Speaker 02

  Well firstly, I'll come back to what I said before. Who has the staying power? What we know is that China stockpiled a hell of a lot of oil ahead of this. I don't know how China even had an inkling. Xi Jinping was well-prepared for the tariff war. And it looks though he was even prepared for this Iranian war. And you know, when they say that Xi Jinping is playing chess while the other leaders of the world are playing checkers, I actually think that they're right. The staying power, they stockpiled many months' worth of oil. So I'm not worried about a chokehold on China unless the administration is thinking

• 40:39Speaker 02

  that we're going to actually keep it closed for three or six months, okay? The other part of it is that as the United States was turning its back on the clean energy file, the one country in the world that was pursuing it aggressively was China. Where basically, so we can talk about all the oil that China needs and needs from Iran, but half their energy comes from clean energy. And they've stockpiled a lot of oil. Now, there's a time when there's going to be a real choke point on the Chinese economy if this continues, but I think that it would take at least three months if you're talking about trying to bring China to its knees.

• 41:22Speaker 02

  The question is, does Donald Trump have three months more? You want to talk about taking over Carg Island? Look, you're talking about a situation where the whole world will face massive constraints. You talked about jet fuel before. We're just in the early stages of the airlines either cancelling flights or actually just not flying as much. That's a huge impact on domestic travel and tourism and internationally. Isn't the United States about they're hosting that soccer championship, right? Olympics. You see, yeah. World Cup. Yeah, the World Cup. Well, do you hear what the hotel companies are saying that they're slashing their rates by 50%? What's your point though?

• 42:06Speaker 02

  My point is that my point is that the United States has a much lower, a much, I guess, higher threshold or, you know, for pain. What I mean is that in an election year... And a lot at stake.

• 42:28Speaker 02

  How much pain are Americans and I'm not talking about the markets, okay? The S and P is not GDP. And you could say that things are looking okay right now. We got the retail sales number. Well, guess what? Right in the middle of a $30 billion incremental increase in tax refunds and all that money got spent last month, but that's going to wear out in the next couple of months. We'll see the emperor disrobed. The question comes down to who's got the staying power? That, that, and that's, I guess, you know, we can either agree or disagree. I think that China, I think probably even Iran has longer staying power than the Americans do.

• 43:01Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't know about that. I don't know about that. And I'll tell you why. I, I, I'll agree in one area and I'll push back and I want you to push back on me, on what I'm going to say. I want to hear your. So what do you think about the fact that Iran is using 400 to 500 million dollars every day in oil? That's 12 to 13 billion dollars a month. And they, you know, some reports are coming and saying they can go two more weeks. Some are saying max six more weeks with that income coming in and the country's in shambles. So the people are starting to get frustrated and the people are getting tired of it. The opposing argument to that is World Cup starts when? Rob, when does the World Cup start? What's the first date? And by the way, the FIFA president came out and said, I don't know if you saw this or not, that Iran will definitely be in the World Cup.

• 43:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so Iran will be competing in the world. You know, that whole story was like, they're not, they're going to, they are. So they are, okay? World Cup starts June 11th. Today is what? April 23rd, 22nd? What is today?

• 43:56Speaker 02

  22nd.

• 43:57Patrick Bet-David?

  22nd. That's, my timeline is he's got six weeks. So my timeline, you either have to fix it in six weeks or you have to put a ceasefire for how long? From June 11th to July 19th. Why July 19th? July 19th is the championship match. So then you got to go back at it. And then do you really want to go into the midterms? So there's two ways for us. You're right, World Cup and midterms is there. On the other side for Iran, what are you going to do when all of a sudden? So if, if the, the tipping point from my end is if the Iranians go in the streets again? And families are struggling financially, payment, all of that stuff? That is chaotic. What we did learn, and again, you know, Riza Palavi, who was the fellow

• 44:42Patrick Bet-David?

  that's going around, and we've had him on a few times, and we're probably not on the best terms today, because, you know, I called him on a few different things. Here's what we did learn. How much influence, when he said he has, with the military turning against IRGC? How much of that have we seen?

• 44:59Speaker 02

  We haven't seen any of it.

• 45:00Patrick Bet-David?

  That's a problem.

• 45:01Speaker 02

  Well, that's what I was thinking. I mean, that was my, you know, initial soliloquy. That to me, when you're asking me before about, you know, what would be something really good? That would be really good, because I think ultimately it will take the army. So far, the army hasn't turned against the regime, and maybe that'll change. It'll change, you know, it's just like I talked about the history. When does the army turn? The army turns when it sees its own survival at stake, and that comes from the uprising of the general population, which we saw in January. I imagine that perhaps Donald Trump thought that maybe we're going to see this again, but they're scared, and they're not armed. And then it'll

• 45:44Speaker 02

  come down, I think, to what the army does. I fully agree. The point I'm making before is this: I think that Iran has more staying power. And we have to acknowledge that it does, because this was supposed to be a four, five-week war. It started in late February.

• 45:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Stand alone, or would help?

• 46:00Speaker 02

  What?

• 46:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Stand alone to have staying power, or would help?

• 46:04Speaker 02

  No, when I say that staying power, I, it's a matter of that, what I said before is that Donald Trump has to pay attention to the political calendar, and I think he's starting to. And he's, you know, I don't know, is he going to buckle to domestic political pressure, and now within his own party? I mean, these are the things that Iran doesn't have to worry about.

• 46:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 46:26Speaker 02

  And what I'm saying is that, from what I'm hearing, is that Iran, despite what we hear from the White House, their munitions have not been totally destroyed, not been obliterated, and that they have probably still 50% capacity, which is a lot. We were told at the beginning, this is going to be a four, five-week war. That was back at the end of February. So we have to acknowledge that, although there's no bombing right now, the war is ongoing. And what I'm saying is this: a little bit of history yet again.

• 46:59Speaker 02

  1930s, when you look at the Gallup polls in the 1930s, 90% of the American public was against the US joining the Allies in the fight against the Nazis. When did that flip? When did it flip? 1941 with Pearl Harbor. So, I don't even want to go there. What will be the event that would flip public opinion? Right? And public opinion matters in a democracy. Well, we're talking about Iran and we're talking about China. We even talked about Russia, which comes at a winner from all this as well. These are not exactly democracies.

• 47:36Speaker 02

  My sense and my concern is that Iran has more staying power in terms of time than a lot of people recognize, and that's a problem because Donald Trump doesn't have a lot of time because we're going to shift our focus in the next few months towards the midterms. So, he's under tremendous political pressure. Well, you know, all of a sudden, out of the blue, I mean, just a few weeks ago, we're talking about, we're going to go in, they're going to bomb the power plants and we're going to bomb the bridges and of course, to a lot of internal political pressure, not just global pressure because, you know, people are going to die, right? Civilians are going to die. And that's the one thing that, you know, Americans today, they can't, they can't stomach

• 48:21Speaker 02

  that. But that would be, when you think about it, how else do we incentivize the Iranian population to rise up?

• 48:29Patrick Bet-David?

  There's one way to do it. Are you familiar with the Rewards for Justice program?

• 48:33Speaker 02

  No.

• 48:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so if you want to pull up the Rewards for Justice program, go to a place that explains what it is. Maybe go to, yeah, so the Rewards for Justice program, you ever hear when they're like, we'll give you $25 million for somebody that finds Maduro and tells us where it's at? We'll give you that whole Rewards for Justice program, right? Guess what? How much have we spent so far? $51 billion, give or take, so far, all right? If I break a billion into 10 million, how many $10 million payments can I make?

• 49:08Patrick Bet-David?

  How many? A hundred.

• 49:09Speaker 12

  Hmm.

• 49:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Right?

• 49:11Speaker 12

  Hmm.

• 49:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Ten million, billion is what? A hundred. If I break it into five million, how many can I make? Two hundred. If I break it into two and a half million, how many can I make? Four hundred. So, instead of spending fifty billion dollars, why don't you increase your rewards for justice to a billion dollars? It's gonna save us a shit ton of money instead of you going to two hundred billion. Let's find the top two hundred military leaders that are too IRGC and tell them, hey, man, here's what's gonna happen. Leak the info, get it in front of them. You guys are each gonna get five million bucks. Rewards for justice based on these three criterias. One, you flip now.

• 49:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Two, you do that next. And three, it's not hard to come up with the next three requests. And each one prompts a payment. Or each one does something. It's not like we don't have this program right now. This is kind of a quiet, low-key, underground, you know, CIA type of a thing. Some of these guys are gonna sit there and say, okay, I got seven kids. I got two wives. I'm a military this. The top fifty leaders were killed. They killed Khamenei. They're about to kill Hassan. They killed all these other guys. Who the hell am I? They're gonna kill me next. You'll be able to flip two hundred military leaders for five million a pop. Now, what are they gonna do? So go, you know how we have the general of the army? We have sergeant major of the army. We have, you know, Marines.

• 50:41Patrick Bet-David?

  We have Air Force. We have Navy. One by one, and find a way to get that messaging to them. Remember back in the days, uh, the way, um, the way the CIA would recruit people? Did you see that commercial on CIA on how to leak into? Was it a commercial that we did to Russia or vice versa? Did you see that one commercial?

• 51:00Speaker 12

  I think it was China.

• 51:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, do you have? That's right, it was China. Do you know which one I'm talking about? Have you seen this one? So China did a commercial. Uh, uh, CIA launches Mandarin videos to recruit Chinese spies. That's the one. So go ahead and play that clip. By the way, uh, can you do me a favor, Rob? Uh, uh, go back if you could. Go back if you could, cuz I wanna know, one of them, what YouTube channel it's from. CIA has a YouTube channel. So that's, that's, there's, just so everybody knows it's, it's not even hidden anymore. So CIA launched a commercial to try to get spies from China. Please go and play this clip, Rob, if you could.

• 51:35Speaker 06

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• 52:05Speaker 07

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• 52:35Speaker 08

  Now, more than ever, we need someone on our side. But Rob Whitman? Whitman's votes drove up costs, cut Medicaid, and risked 350,000 Virginians' healthcare to pay for tax breaks for himself and his donors. He's not on our side. Shannon Taylor will fight corruption, cut taxes, and bring down costs. This November, vote for Shannon Taylor. She's for us. Paid for by HMP, the House Majority PAC dot com. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

• 53:04Speaker 13

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• 53:23Speaker 14

  From the CIA, the language Mandarin. The goal: Recruit Chinese spies.

• 53:30Speaker 04

  One of the primary roles of the CIA is to collect intelligence for the president and for our policymakers.

• 53:37Patrick Bet-David?

  Guess what? CIA, make a video and say, if you're a Colonel or above in the Iranian military and you want to flip $5 million reward for you to get ahold of us. And guess what? We'll protect your kids. We'll protect your this. We'll protect your that. Make that commercial. Spend a billion dollars. Spend a billion dollars. And guess what? Tax pay, now watch some of the, so, fight back, argue that. Argue the point. Would you be for us spending a billion dollars? Rewards for justice, flipping a couple hundred of these guys? They're not wanting to fight, they stand down, they sell intel. And the war is over with, would you be okay to spending a billion dollars for that?

• 54:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Would you be okay with that idea, to even entertain it, Tom?

• 54:23Speaker 02

  Much better.

• 54:23Patrick Bet-David?

  Tear the argument apart, you know, say I don't like this idea.

• 54:26Speaker 02

  I can tear the argument apart.

• 54:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Go for it, I want to hear it.

• 54:28Speaker 02

  Well, I said before, you're fighting a radical Islam ideology. And to a lot of people at or near the top in Iran, the money doesn't matter. This is about fanaticism, a fanatical theocracy. So, I mean, I love the idea, I love utopia. The question is that, forget the IRGC, they are in control. Now, you're talking about going after the military. You're gonna need more than just a few dozen, or a few hundred, there's over 200,000 IRGC. And they're in control, you would need, if you could do this, and you start with 10, or 20, or 30.

• 55:11Speaker 02

  I mean, there's a million just in the regular army, it would have to spread. It's just the law of large numbers, the IRGC is not a small army, there's over 200,000. But I love the idea. I love the idea of somehow, we talked about the Mossad earlier, and who, the Kurds. How do we develop internal insurrection against the regime and have it grow? And then you reach a point, right, where the general population has the confidence to come back out and do what they did in January.

• 55:44Patrick Bet-David?

  I was hoping you would come out, and you would say you would finance it. You know, you being a financial, I was hoping you would come out and say you would finance it, and you know, we would figure out a way to do this, but...

• 55:55Speaker 02

  In Canadian dollars.

• 55:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Canadian dollars, yeah.

• 55:57Speaker 02

  That's not gonna fly.

• 55:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. Okay, all right, let's go to the next one, because you kind of brought it up, so Tom, I'm gonna go to this, and I'm coming to you first. You mentioned jet fuel, right? And there's three stories I'm gonna read at the same time, and then Tom, I'm gonna come to you. Number one, Deutsche Luftwaffe.

• 56:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Cancelled 20,000 short haul flights to save on jet fuel. Rob, go ahead and play the clip.

• 56:16Speaker 15

  Caster has cancelled 20,000 flights between May and October to save on fuel in one of the largest cuts by a global airline. The cuts will save around 40,000 tonnes of jet fuel and will amount to 1% of available seat kilometres. The carrier is trying to boost profitability with a plan to cut 4,000 administrative jobs by 2030.

• 56:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Can you imagine like what's going on there? Now let me get to the US one. So you may say, well, Pat, that's, you know, that's Germany. Why do I care about Germany? Do you care about United Airlines? Here's United Airlines for you. United Airlines slashes 2026 forecast as fuel cost surge. Okay, so here's a story for them. Forecast to just $7 to $11 a share. Let me read this story to you with them. Pa, pa, pa, pa, pa. Here we go. So, United said it could earn between $7 and $11 a share on an adjusted basis this year, down from its previous forecast, $12 to $14 a share. Released in January more than a month ago, the carrier, like others, is trimming down

• 57:22Patrick Bet-David?

  of its planned flying this year to reduce costs. Wall Street had already been adjusting its expectation for the year. As a result, analysts like polled by LSEG had forecast that United's just full year earnings could be 9.58 a share for the second quarter. United forecast adjusted earnings between $1 to $2 a share. Analysts had expected $2.08 a share for the quarter. The carrier has said it's expected to, its revenue to cover between 40 to 50% of the fuel price increase in the second quarter, as much as 80% in the third and between 85 to 100% by the end of the year. Revenue overall rose more than 10% from 14.61

• 58:03Patrick Bet-David?

  to 14.61 from 13.21 billion from last year. Tom, what's going on over here with travel and jet fuel?

• 58:11Tom Ellsworth?

  It's a little bit of a complex situation. All of the airlines out there, I should say almost all. I believe 90% of the airlines out there have one of the most important persons in the executive suite is the economist that's responsible for their fuel hedging strategies. They hedge fuel and they try to plan for things. And what's happening right now, the cost of fuel unexpectedly popping up, they're looking for cost reduction. And the way they're looking for cost reduction, in the case, every airline, some of the shorter flights are not profitable, believe it or not. But they get people, like, think of Delta. Delta's got a giant hub in Atlanta.

• 58:55Tom Ellsworth?

  And it operates small flights that get to Atlanta. And some of those are marginally like break-even pad, or maybe they lose a little bit. Now, why would you do that? Because they make a lot of profit once you get to Atlanta, and then you fly to New York, or you fly to LA, or you fly to South America on the long flights with the large wide-body aircraft, and they make a lot of money on those. And so, what Lufthansa said is, they have a small regional division called City Line. And so, City Line, they say, hey, we can't afford to run City Line. Which means that some of those people will drive two hours to get to a more major airport, rather than having the convenience of a small airport, you know, where they can get to the major airport to fly.

• 59:37Tom Ellsworth?

  And this is all around fuel. And I can give you some perspectives on it as well. Now, you're gonna have people that say, well, maybe I just won't fly this year. Kim had to go rather urgently to see her dad in Idaho. And so, the coach ticket was 750 bucks, just to go from Fort Lauderdale to Idaho. And that's on Delta. Go to Atlanta, switch planes, go to Salt Lake, and then there. Crazy, right? Well, she already has to go back there again, because he has another appointment she has to go to six weeks from now in June. Do you know what the price of that one is? 1,600 bucks.

• 1:00:17Tom Ellsworth?

  The same coach ticket.

• 1:00:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom, a coach ticket, 1,600 bucks?

• 1:00:21Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, because it's also because it's three flights and Twin Falls is a very small airport. But you take a look at what's happening. This is crazy. This is really crazy. And so you're seeing prices go up. Now, that's one example from Delta to a micro. By the way, and the question she's asking, what if Delta decides they can't, they're not going to operate SkyWest later this summer? Or they're just going to not going to have that? She's going to have to go to Salt Lake City and then drive three and a half hours to get to her dad's place in southern Utah. And so what's happening now is the airlines were carrying the initial cost. And now the airlines are saying, look, I wanted to keep my market share. I wanted to keep my customers and wanted to do a little bit. So they kept a little bit of it.

• 1:01:06Tom Ellsworth?

  Now they're saying, I can't do that. So I gotta get rid of my short haul flights that are just marginally profitable or not profitable. And I gotta raise fares. And that's what's happening.

• 1:01:17Patrick Bet-David?

  While you're saying that, there's five other airlines that are going through this as well. Cathay Pacific Airways, a Hong Kong-based airline, said it will cancel about 2% of its scheduled passenger flights from May 16 to June 30. HK Express, a budget carrier, said it would cut about 6% starting May 11. And then we already talked about Lufthansa, what they're going to be cutting. And then Duchess Airlines, KLM, said it would cut 160 flights in Europe next month, amounting to less than 1% of its flight schedule. And then some companies have already signaled larger reductions. Vietnam Airlines in March said that it may cut up to 18% of its international flights and 26% of its domestic flights. So that's big. We're seeing the stories.

• 1:01:58Patrick Bet-David?

  It's not yet fully scaled to everybody, but you're feeling the impact so far right now, Brandon.

• 1:02:04Speaker 11

  Yeah, and I think this is just kind of the beginning of this if it keeps going in that direction. Because we just got to the point where the last fuel shipments from before the war started were arriving. So I mean, that lag effect has finally started to hit. But that's why I think that oil's actually got a lot like interest rates going up. And counterintuitively, it could kind of knock the price down a lot of things. Like people are saying this is going to cause inflation, but I think it's just going to devour disposable income because of, you know, what people have to spend on energy, what people have to spend on travel. And yeah, I mean, airlines, it's not surprising that one of the first ones to go there. They've always had like razor thin margins. I think it's like, well, like two to 5%. And that's why they always have to get government subsidies. But yeah, the one bright spot out of this, I think it could bring down inflation in a lot of other areas.

• 1:02:49Speaker 11

  Because how much more people are spending on energy.

• 1:02:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, you know, this is a great article by CNBC. It says, "Travelers need to know a few things. Number one, know your rights. Every airline has its own policies about what it owes to passengers who face delays and cancellations. Federals require airlines to pay a prompt refund to a ticketed passenger, even those with non-refunded tickets if they cancel a flight or make a significant change to the itinerary. Number two, check your contact info. Make sure the airline has your contact information on the file in case it needs to get in touch with you. Number three, act fast. If an airline contacts you about a canceled flight or change to your itinerary, said nerd wallets, the sooner you act and contact in the airline, the more options you're gonna have. Fly nonstop, flying nonstop to a destination is generally more expensive than booking a flight with a layover. However, it's good strategy for travelers who can afford it and want to minimize disruptions

• 1:03:36Patrick Bet-David?

  and consider travel insurance while you're going through it. So it's an interesting time where you're traveling right now. So it is something that's becoming real. Of course, we'll follow the story closer to see how much bigger this gets, but that's that part. Let me get to the next one. Tariffs. The president makes a comment about tariffs. He encourages companies not to seek tariff refunds. That's a Bloomberg story. And he says, "I'll remember companies that don't seek tariff refunds, even though UPS and FedEx have already began filing for some of the refunds." Here's what the president had to say about it. Go for it.

• 1:04:07Speaker 16

  On that topic, there's a whole number of very large companies, including Apple and Amazon and others that have not sought reimbursements yet for the tariffs. Meaning they haven't, they haven't tried to collect refunds. And from what I understand, part of the reason that they have waited is because there is a worry about frankly offending you. Would you find it offensive for them to try to collect a refund?

• 1:04:33Speaker 05

  I think it's brilliant if they don't do that. I actually think if they don't do that, they got to know me very well. I'm very honored by what you just said. If they don't do that, I'll remember them, I will tell you that. Because I'm looking to make this country strong. Supreme Court could have helped us. Now they have birthright citizenship, they'll probably rule against this. No country in the world has it. It's horrible for our country. And I just see it, you know, I see some of these. Republicans that are nominated by me, uh, asking real bad questions and looks like maybe we're gonna lose that one too.

• 1:05:07Patrick Bet-David?

  What, which one is he talking about? It looks like we're gonna lose that one too? Uh, one of the, uh, races for, was the Senate? Yeah.

• 1:05:14Tom Ellsworth?

  I think he's talking about the, uh, Supreme Court reviewing birthright, I think.

• 1:05:17Patrick Bet-David?

  Is that it? That could be it.

• 1:05:18Tom Ellsworth?

  I think that's what he's talking about.

• 1:05:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom, what do you, what do you think about that whole exchange with tariffs and how I'll remember you if you don't do it?

• 1:05:24Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, I mean, let, let's, let's face it, um, most presidents are quietly, you know, the head of the Federal Trade Commission and their head of the FCC, cause they appoint people and then they pick up the phone. And what we're seeing here is he's just playing the cards very, very openly. He says, "I will remember you." I said, "What does that mean?" "I'll remember you." And so, you know, people don't wanna, people don't want to run afoul of a US president that will say your name in headlines, potentially affect your stock price, and also take steps. Uh, yet FedEx and, you know, UPS, both have had,

• 1:06:06Tom Ellsworth?

  you know, they've got earnings issues and I think some of these may not feel like, you know what, it may offend them, it may not offend them, maybe the midterms will go to a more neutral direction, but you know what, we gotta go get some of this money back. And I, I think it's that simple.

• 1:06:22Patrick Bet-David?

  David, where are you at?

• 1:06:24Speaker 02

  Uh, I, I find it absolutely incredible that, uh, the Supreme Court, uh, ruled against his broad-based tariffs. And now you have companies, uh, that, uh, deservedly so, wanna get their refunds. And then you have the president in a veiled threat. It's a veiled threat that he'll somehow come after them. I don't like it. I don't like it one bit.

• 1:06:51Speaker 11

  Anti-tariffs, you are?

• 1:06:52Speaker 02

  I, well, yes, I, I, I am a, I'm a free enterprise capitalist. I felt at home in the Reagan Republican Party in the 1980s. I believe in free trade because I think it unleashes productivity, it reduces protectionism, it forces companies to become more productive internally. I don't like tariffs one bit. Now, Donald Trump has been in favor of tariffs publicly all the way back to 1987. This is like religion for him. So, no, I don't like tariffs. I can understand what his objective is. I don't buy into, and I've looked at the data, that the United States has not been ripped off by the rest

• 1:07:35Speaker 02

  of the world. The United States runs large trade deficits because it's a consumption-oriented economy. It's geared towards consumer spending, and a lot of those consumer spending comes out of imports. Besides the fact that the flip side of the trade deficit is the capital account surplus. So that money comes back into the US markets. That's why the rate of return on capital has always been superior in the United States than it is in the rest of the world. It's why the, the cost of capital has been lower than it's been in the rest of the world. That's the flip side. It's called the balance of payments for a reason. It's because they balance. The trade deficit is the mirror image of the capital account

• 1:08:19Speaker 02

  surplus, which every American has benefited from. So, yes, I don't agree with tariffs one bit. I don't even like the way that he carried it out, because if you want to identify countries that maybe are cheating, and maybe they are, you do it on one, one, one-to-one basis, okay? He slapped Liberation Day, was, I'm just gonna slap on indiscriminately tariffs on everybody, and that's basically what he did. But I, I think that, you know, a lot of it was part of his agenda to bring in manufacturing, build a protectionist wall, attract manufacturing investment back into the country. I, I think it's a very, it's a very, well, it's a very, look, when you think about tariffs... Tariffs are a dirty three-letter word called a tax. It is a tax.

• 1:09:04Speaker 02

  It's a tax on goods. And it hits disproportionately the most vulnerable parts of society, which is the low-end consumer. And that's what... This does not do anything to resolve the case shape as to what's happening in the US personal sector. It exacerbates it. What question? The Supreme Court... I'm just gonna say, you know, the Supreme Court already ruled against him. And then he's... The thing is that he's got these other avenues that he's pursuing. So just pursue those other avenues until they either expire or they get ruled against. But to then go and surreptitiously start to invoke threats, veil threats to companies, private companies? No, not a big fan of that strategy.

• 1:09:49Speaker 11

  Well, do you think it's more national security or economic, though? Because, you know, what's... Like, how do we fix the problem of other countries underselling companies in terms of what they could pay for labor, for manufacturing? How are we supposed to compete with that?

• 1:10:02Speaker 02

  Well, there might be reasons why these other countries in the world, you say, are underpaying their labor. It could well be that these other countries in the world have surplus labor. And if they have surplus labor, well, then it would stand to reason that their wage rates would be lower. But like in the United States, you know, right now, because of the out-migration file, we don't have... We have an unemployment rate barely more than 4%. Are you gonna come after Canada because the Canadian unemployment rate is 7%? Would you think that Canada should not have reduced wage rates or pressures because there's

• 1:10:44Speaker 02

  more of a surplus of labor in Canada or anywhere else in the world relative to the United States? You can't have it both ways. You can't sit there and brag about, "Well, we have a very healthy, vibrant labor market, and we have tight unemployment rates." In which case, if that's true, you're gonna have wage pressure in your economy. You can't have it both ways. You can't say, "We have the best labor market in the world, and therefore our wage rates are gonna be below our competitors." That makes no economic sense whatsoever.

• 1:11:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, let me ask you this. As a Canadian yourself, what do you think about Carney's relationship with China right now?

• 1:11:22Speaker 02

  Well, I think that his relationship with China is intertwined with his relationship now with, really, with the rest of the world. So, I think that, I think Carney has almost given up on the United States as a viable partner. So, he's partnering with whoever is going to want to do business with Canada. So, that's

• 1:11:46Patrick Bet-David?

  As a Canadian, do you see yourself as China as the number one enemy of Canada, or no?

• 1:11:52Speaker 02

  I would rather that Carney does more to foster a positive relationship with the United States, you know, than going and cozying up to China. You know, because I think China, China's not a military enemy. China's not a military enemy of the United States either, but it's a massive economic adversary. And if it's an economic adversary to your biggest trading partner, which is the United States, which is really the bread and butter for Canada's economy, it's a bit of a risk to go cozy up to China. But, you see, this is the byproduct. You see, this is basically what I would have done going into this war with Iran.

• 1:12:34Speaker 02

  I wanted to cobble together, you see, what you want to do is get a global coalition, just like George H.W. Bush did. That was a global coalition against Saddam Hussein, you know, back in Gulf War I in 1990 and 91. I would have put an immediate moratorium on the tariffs, okay? Because to just give a kiss on the cheek to your partners. But, he did do that because tariffs are so important to him. But, yes, I find, look, I find a lot of Mark Carney's policies problematic. I think that's one of them right there. I would rather that he worked harder. I'll tell you the truth. I know the Europeans loved his speech in Davos.

• 1:13:20Speaker 02

  I sort of like was thinking, because again, you read between the lines. Do you really want to poke Donald Trump in the eyes like this? And of course, he reacted. Now, I'm not saying that we have to go cap in hand and on our knees to the United States, but you know, I just wish there was more effort. You have to, it's like in our business, the financial industry, the know your client rule. You know, the people that have most successfully dealt with Donald Trump, whether it's Scheinbaum in Mexico, or it's Melania in Italy, although he's a little upset with her right now, but there's leaders out there that have treated, know how to treat Donald Trump, okay? And so-

• 1:14:04Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom, what are your thoughts on that?

• 1:14:05Speaker 02

  I wish, I just wish Canada would have done more in that direction.

• 1:14:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, let me do this, while you're saying that, and then Tom, I'm gonna come to you. Here's what Howard Lundnik, he had some choice words for Canada. Go ahead, Rob.

• 1:14:14Speaker 17

  Time is on our side because the pressures on the US are only gonna increase over time. Basically, you guys are in political trouble. The longer they wait, the better a deal you're gonna have to do.

• 1:14:23Speaker 18

  Good for them. That is like the worst strategy I've ever heard. They suck, they, look, we are a $30 trillion economy, right? We are the consumer of the world, okay? Carney has a problem with us. He gets on a plane and he goes to China. Does he think China's, the Chinese economy's gonna buy his stuff? China is entirely an export-driven economy, right? So what do you do? He came back and said, "Oh, we'll take their electric cars." I mean, is this nuts?

• 1:14:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. What do you think about what he's saying here, Tom?

• 1:14:57Tom Ellsworth?

  So I think there's a lot of perceptions that go out there, back and forth. And David, I'm gonna present some numbers here, and I think some of the things you said there, I kind of disagree with a little bit, there's a little perception going, I think. Just look at January. We have all the numbers for January. Canada exported to the United States $38 billion worth of stuff, and only imported $25 billion. So it was a net positive export for Canada, making stuff and sending it to us, of $13 billion. And because the US auto, with the interest rates, it gently went down toward the end of last year, the US auto sales perked up a little bit, and GM makes a ton of pickup trucks just right over the border in, from Detroit in Windsor.

• 1:15:38Tom Ellsworth?

  And so, the auto exports to the US were like up 24%. But watch this, Pat. What percent of Canadian exports to the USA- Today, under Trump, Q1 arrived here duty-free. What percent?

• 1:15:54Speaker 02

  Probably 95%.

• 1:15:56Tom Ellsworth?

  That's right. Which means that this whole war that Carney is starting with Trump, 95% of what Canada exported here is duty-free. Trump tried to make a point, he actually moderated a little bit, and Carney's running around like Trump is this great boogeyman stepping on everybody's feet, when he's got a good deal going, and I think he just sold out his old economy, going to get BYD to bring electric vehicles to Canada, and BYD was known to be putting predatory pricing all across the EU, and to undermine Mercedes and Volkswagen,

• 1:16:36Tom Ellsworth?

  which makes a ton of things, and the Nissan conglomerate, and BMW. They undermined everybody. They sat there, what was it, Bulgaria? Check me on this. I think they have a, BYD had an import place, or an assembly, final assembly, in Bulgaria, and they were sending all of those EVs into Europe and just undercutting everybody's price. Does Carney think he's not going to get the same deal out of China? That they're not going to do that? My goodness. So I'm kind of shocked. I feel like he's bowing to political pressure, "Oh, it's fashionable to be anti-Trump," but he's got to look at the facts? It's a great trading partner, and he's sitting here with very, very few tariffs on things right now.

• 1:17:18Speaker 02

  What do you disagree with? I think we're in total agreement, unless you said you agree with?

• 1:17:22Patrick Bet-David?

  No, you said you were not supportive of the tariffs, of the way he was doing it, and something you said is that he's said since 1987, he's been for tariffs. The surplus is where other countries win more from doing business with us than we do. And so a lot of presidents have negotiated favorably on behalf of China, which, by the way, starting with Nixon. Nixon is who built China, because at that time, everybody was worried about the power USSR was going to have, and Soviet Union and all this other stuff. And then, we said, "Hey, let's help these guys out." They were number 10 in GDP, I don't know what year they were. Pull up China GDP ranking in the world in 1970. Okay, 1970 how they were doing, and today, we know they're number 2. But where was China in 1970? Can you go

• 1:18:06Patrick Bet-David?

  to the ranking so we can see them ranked against others? Go to images, Rob, if you just go to images, there should be a ranking in 1970. Does it show it? What year is that?

• 1:18:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, so anyways, China was top 10, now they're number 2. We've helped China become who they are. And now, you want me to accept the fact that each president comes in automatically always favorable towards China? No, I kinda like the fact that finally somebody stood up to them. And I remember this was gonna pass when I had a conversation with Rand Paul. And Rand Paul says, "The Supreme Court is gonna rule against the president." "The Supreme Court's gonna rule against the president." And the president started kinda saying, "Hey, I hope they don't, I hope they don't, I hope they don't." And we know what ended up happening. You know, so to me, a part of, I think, what maybe a Tom is saying is, the fact that all these other countries are winning from having the best customers in the world, which is America, and we need to make sure they're happy?

• 1:19:02Patrick Bet-David?

  You said something which was interesting, that it's a good debate to have. Should he have done it where he went after every country around the world instead of doing it as one liberation day? Maybe that's a good strategy to debate. I can see that being a good debate. Because the reality of it is, who was it really wanting to have trade war with? Who was it with? It wasn't with everybody, it was with one company, country. He didn't wanna have issues with Mexico. He doesn't wanna have issues with Canada. His main thing was China. My opinion, your thoughts?

• 1:19:31Speaker 02

  Well, that's not what he said. He said that the rest of the world was ripping them off. Canada was ripping them off. Mexico's ripping them off. Europeans were ripping them off.

• 1:19:41Patrick Bet-David?

  You know why Canada's ripping them off? The part about Canada's ripping them off, you guys don't put any money into military. What percentage of GDP do you put into military? We make you safe.

• 1:19:51Speaker 02

  I'm not gonna debate that one bit. And you can say the same thing for the Europeans, although that is starting to change. And I think that Trump was right all along. That's different. Living up to your commitments in NATO is different than talking about balance of payments. To which I will say, that the president and his economics team do not understand what the balance of payments really are. If you want to eliminate... The trade deficit, you will eliminate the capital account surplus. You'll have less investment coming in to US bonds, US credit, US equities. That's just how the balance payments operates.

• 1:20:34Speaker 02

  The capital account and the current account have to balance. And you can't go on the podium and say, "We are the best economy in the world." And then on the other side say, "But the rest of the world's ripping us off." How does that compute?

• 1:20:49Speaker 11

  They were tariffing us and we weren't tariffing them. And they dumped cheap goods into our market without any consequences. I don't think they're worried about the trade deficit. I think they're worried about that. So how are our companies supposed to compete with the Chinese company who could dump cheap goods into our market?

• 1:21:01Speaker 02

  I'm not talking, but I'm not talking about China because his tariff policy was multilateral. It was every country. Now, it's quite true that Canada was relatively unskate, but it didn't mean that he didn't raise tariffs on steel and tariffs on aluminum and tariffs on lumber.

• 1:21:16Speaker 11

  Because our steel companies were going out of business because they couldn't compete. We need steel companies in America.

• 1:21:19Patrick Bet-David?

  What did manufacturing numbers just come up? What manufacturing numbers just came up, Rob? Can you find that real quick? Please continue.

• 1:21:27Speaker 02

  Yeah, the point I'm making is that if you can actually identify, and I think this will, if you want to go through like we did with Japan in the 1980s with 301, go do it. He didn't embark on that. This was a broadly based tariff increase. And if you go back to Liberation Day, which really told me that they'd have no understanding of the balance of payments, the tariff rates they were applying was based on the ratio of exports to imports. It's just a transaction. Okay, you get the construction worker to come in and remodel your house. He remodels your house and then you pay him a check.

• 1:22:11Speaker 02

  The United States runs a trade deficit with the rest of the world and then they cut a check. And that check comes into US capital markets. It's a symbiotic relationship. If you want to go back into a world where the trade balance will be zero for every country in the world, which is what I think President Trump would like, we're going to end up with much weaker global economic growth. And because the US is a large closed economy, it will be relatively better off. But it'll be like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Growth generally will be weaker, okay? You don't have to do much more than just go take an economics course in balance of payments economics, international trade economics, to know

• 1:22:51Speaker 02

  that free trade, if conducted properly, benefits everybody.

• 1:22:57Tom Ellsworth?

  I don't know about, I think.

• 1:22:58Speaker 02

  Well, that is, it's true in theory, it's true in theory, it's true in practicality now. It doesn't mean that the principal cheater here has been and always been China. And not just in goods, but also in services. Well, then, well, that's what we've done all along. For, and, and the big problem was not the get round of negotiations that started in 1970s, which was multilateral. It was when we allowed China into WTO, unshackled, back in 2001. That was the problem, okay? Then to globalize it, then to globalize it. And it just showed me, I'll just tell you right now. Everything I've seen out of the administration

• 1:23:40Speaker 02

  in the past year, since April last year, tells me there's a fundamental lack of understanding on how the balance of payments works. And I know that people, for some reason, they, they think tariffs are a great thing. I think that, once again, I'm a Reaganite, okay? We knew back then that the cheater was really Japan. It was really in the goods sector, primarily steel and autos. And we went after them with Section 301. We went after them and then it got resolved. That's what you do. You can't treat everybody unilaterally. Now, the one thing I'll say about Carney, and I told, and this is where we're in agreement, okay, by the way? Because most of your commentary was on Carney.

• 1:24:23Tom Ellsworth?

  By the way, you said Carney gave up on the US and went elsewhere. And I'm like, how can he possibly give up?

• 1:24:28Speaker 02

  But I, hold on, I didn't, I didn't defend that. I criticized it. I didn't defend it. One iota. And I think that it's, it's going to cost us because I think come July.

• 1:24:40Speaker 02

  We're gonna have to start renegotiating the USMCA. And I don't know what's gonna happen on that score, but the free trade agreement is, you know, when you talk about, for example, all these, that 95% is still been protected under the tariff and trade actions, that might come to an end in July. I would say, look, the reality is this, and this is where we're in agreement, okay? Canada, United States is not an equal relationship. It's never been an equal relationship. It's not an equal relationship. It will never be an equal relationship because we depend. Like, we ship out, like, 80% of our GDP is shipped out south of the border.

• 1:25:25Speaker 02

  So the United States has always had economic leverage. And when you go back to when the free trade agreement was signed before Mexico, back in the late 1980s with Brian Mulroney and Reagan and George H. W. Bush, we just had to show in Canada that although we're gonna be the immense beneficiary, you're gonna benefit as well. But the United States is a large, closed economy.

• 1:25:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Here's what I would say.

• 1:25:46Speaker 02

  And is a small, open economy.

• 1:25:47Patrick Bet-David?

  For me, this is what I think, and I got it. So a couple of things I wanna share with you. One, I think sometimes, you know, finance guys like you, and I'm in the market as well. I wanna see the market blow up. I know what happens if we continue with tariffs. Temporarily, I'm gonna take a hit. And, you know, the more they print money, the more money I make, the more, you know... So there's many ways, look at financially, where the right thing to do impacts the market. But I'm not interested in what's the right thing to do for six, 12, 24 months. I'm interested on what's the right thing to do for America, long-term. Not short-term, long-term.

• 1:26:31Patrick Bet-David?

  So for me, when I sit there and I ask, "Who is the enemy to you?", and you're like, "Well, you know, we kinda don't see China as the enemy and all this other stuff." Rob, this is 1970. Can you play that? I wanna show three things. This is where China ranked in GDP in 1970. What is that? 2, 4, 6, 8. They're number eight. Okay? They had an $84 billion GDP, right? And so who was ahead of them? Italy was ahead of them. Canada and China were the same. Look at that, at the screen. It's the same exact size in 1970, China and Canada. And what ends up happening, Rob, if you play it? It continues, and maybe put it on 4.0 speed.

• 1:27:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Canada passes China a little bit in seventy-three. You know, go as fast as you can. Yeah, even faster. Look at that. And then slowly, China drops to tenth place, behind Mexico. And then comes up, and then go all the way fast forward to today, pretty much where they are. Press play. Yeah, that's fine from right there. They're number two. So they went from eighty billion in nineteen seventy to eighteen trillion. Who helped them become eighteen trillion? Who got them there? US. And so, now that we helped them become so powerful, Canada dropped, by the way. You guys went from seventh place to tenth place. They came to second place. And America's sitting around saying, we helped so many of these other economies grow, and now China's caught up to us? Look at the distance.

• 1:27:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Go to the, go to the score before nineteen seventy, what it was at? Eighty, when they were eighty-three billion, where were we at? When they were at eighty-three billion? Okay, look at this. Eighty-three billion. Little bit more, Rob, if you can go to, right there, okay. They're at eighty-three billion, and we're at what? One trillion. That's how many times? Twelve times? Yeah. Let's say twelve X, twelve and a half X. And they went from twelve and a half X to what? Go to now, Rob. So you guys were one to one, and then now, it's what? Point five. Point five percent a high, and we used to be twelve X. And they are now nine X you. You used to be the same. So, and we don't mind doing this. I mean, that's how capitalism work. Everybody wins, good things that's happening.

• 1:28:36Patrick Bet-David?

  But now you want to come controlling, and you know, we saw what they did during Covid, and we just kind of went by it. Yeah, they, they could have controlled it much faster, but they didn't. They released it, and they're like, yeah, let it stay open. You could have closed the airports. You could have told the world about it. No, what, eight trillion dollars of world economy loss. And we're supposed to think these guys are honest players? I like the fact that he's playing aggressive, to be honest with you. And then we spend what percentage of our income GDP on military and I think Canada's, I don't know what it's 3%, 7%, one of either Mexico 7%, Canada's 3% or vice versa. It's a small number. We're the reason why you're safe. America's the reason why you're safe. And so if we finally have a leader that's pushing around his weight, I don't

• 1:29:17Patrick Bet-David?

  mind it. I like it. I don't mind it. And so that's the part because if if he's a competitive guy from 1987 when he said it to now, he's seen us strengthen everybody else and we're just sitting around clipping coupons and allowing them to get stronger. I don't mind a little bit of the audacity that he has. Let me go to the commissioner, the new Fed Chair that's going through his confirmation hearing and I want to get your thoughts on this as well. Well, so he's being pushed a lot. And he's going back and forth and Elizabeth Warren is accusing him of doing what Trump's gonna want him to do. And it was actually good exchange, Rob. I think you have a couple of those clips. Is this one of them?

• 1:29:54Speaker 12

  This is where she asked him to verify the 2020 election results.

• 1:29:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Right. So he this is one of them. Go for it.

• 1:30:00Speaker 19

  We'll start easy. Mr. Walsh, did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election?

• 1:30:05Speaker 20

  We try to keep politics, if I'm confirmed, out of the federal.

• 1:30:10Speaker 19

  I'm just asking you a factual question. I need to know. I need to measure your independence and your courage.

• 1:30:16Speaker 20

  Senator, I believe that this body certified that election many years ago.

• 1:30:21Speaker 19

  That's not the question I'm asking. I'm asking, did Donald Trump lose in 2020?

• 1:30:25Speaker 20

  I'm suggesting you in 2020, the Fed made a huge inflation problem and you certified the election.

• 1:30:32Speaker 19

  So let me ask you another question.

• 1:30:34Speaker 20

  Out of monetary policy.

• 1:30:35Speaker 19

  In our meeting, you said you would be independent.

• 1:30:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, by the way, go back. Was that Larry Fitzgerald sitting behind? I'm like, why is Larry Fitzgerald? Is that him? Oh, wow. Is that Larry Fitzgerald from the Cardinals, the wide receiver? Or am I getting it wrong? It looks a lot like him. Can you verify that? I may be wrong, but that looks like his twin. So there you go. That's the exchange that they're having. And then there's another one, Rob. Do you have the other one as well, where it's more from the sock puppet? You know, is this the one? Because this is the main one.

• 1:31:04Speaker 12

  Yes, I have. This is Elizabeth Warren asking if he'll end up being Trump's sock puppet.

• 1:31:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, go for it. That's the one.

• 1:31:10Speaker 19

  Mr. Chairman, last week, every single Democratic member of this committee asked that you postpone this hearing and instead conduct oversight on the president's role in directing bogus criminal probes into Chair Powell and Governor Cook. The Senate should not be aiding and abetting Donald Trump's illegal takeover of the Fed by installing his chosen sock puppet as Chair. It's an invitation for corruption and for economic catastrophe. We have the power to stop it and we should be using that power. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

• 1:31:48Patrick Bet-David?

  That was Larry Fitzgerald.

• 1:31:50Tom Ellsworth?

  That's crazy.

• 1:31:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Why was he there? Which led to a lot of questions. Sadly, we don't have an answer yet, but we'll update you as soon as we do. Football and politics today on Capitol. Pro-Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald sitting behind Kevin Warsh at his federal. Okay, listen, this is not about Larry Fitzgerald. This is about Kevin Warsh. So, Tom, I'll come to you first and then David, I'm coming to you next. Go ahead, Tom. Thoughts on this?

• 1:32:10Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, first of all, Jesus Christ could have been coming up for confirmation and Elizabeth Warren would have found some angle to go after him and to say, do you think your relationship with your father in terms of religious, you know, policy is nepotistic? I mean, it wouldn't have mattered who was there. Elizabeth Warren's going to go after it. Anybody, because she's part of the no-Trump-at-any-time, and here you have a guy that everybody believes is very intelligent and has a very moderated view of Fed reactionary tools. And what I mean by that is, you never want somebody to turn the ship radically. Ships don't turn like that.

• 1:32:55Tom Ellsworth?

  They have to be gentle. And you also need a Fed that is less rearward-looking and will accept certain forward-looking. And the Fed typically reacts late. You look back at Powell. If anything can be said for Powell, and I kind of watch this, I feel like he's been late, that there were shifts that he could have been, you know, ahead of. Not of, not... You know, three fifty, three, you know, fifty basis point moves in a row? No, but a quarter point of moderation here and then be ahead of it. And this guy, you know, Worshe, he is seen as being, I was a fan of his and we were tracking him on Calci, remember this, Pat? Who's gonna come up here? And they thought it would be, um, Hasset.

• 1:33:40Tom Ellsworth?

  Hasset was another candidate, correct? Mm-hmm. Kevin Hasset? Yep. I believe. And then this guy showed up and everybody was like, wow, you know, people were happy that it was Worshe. And I think that what you just saw from him is a feisty, measured response in the face of Democratic pressure. And I like what I see in him and I like how he responded and I'm not surprised even a little bit with Elizabeth Warren. David?

• 1:34:10Speaker 02

  Right. I just have to go back one thing. Maybe I'm speaking kebokwa French, but we are in agreement because I said that China is an economic adversary and made that point rather emphatically.

• 1:34:22Tom Ellsworth?

  You did.

• 1:34:23Speaker 02

  So on this particular thing with Worshe, it's just a really great political theater. And the reality is that the choice of the Fed chairperson is always political. Like Janet Yellen was appointed by Obama and she worked in the White House, right? And Alan Greenspan, the maestro, was writing speeches for President Ford. So it's always, it's always political. And we have to realize at the same time that the Fed chairperson is just a figurehead.

• 1:35:10Speaker 02

  It's a committee.

• 1:35:13Speaker 02

  He can't do anything on interest rates or anything on policy without cobbling together a majority or consensus on the FOMC. It's the FOMC and actually the FOMC voters, the governors, the President of New York Fed and the rotating banks.

• 1:35:33Speaker 02

  So, we tend to overplay this. He is the leader. He has one vote. It's the most powerful vote, but it's one vote.

• 1:35:41Patrick Bet-David?

  What is the process? If he wants to increase rates, what is the process?

• 1:35:46Speaker 02

  Well, if he wants to increase or decrease rates. Well, they have a two-day meeting and they discuss it. I mean, he'll always throw what his particular view is. And then they discuss, you can actually, I mean, they produce the FOMC minutes a few weeks after. You have to wait five years to see the actual transcripts. And you could see it's a very fulsome discussion and you could see there are dissents. There's been times in the past where actually the dissents were so large, this happened with Volcker near the end of his tenure, where they get outvoted. So, you know, he's got one vote. It's the most powerful vote, but it's a committee. It's called the Federal Open Market Committee.

• 1:36:31Speaker 02

  It is a committee. That's the one thing that doesn't come out. Most people think, because the way he's portrayed, that one person controls interest rates. It's very interesting that Donald Trump even pressures and pressures and pressures the one person. He's only got one vote. Like, why doesn't Donald Trump just come after the whole FOMC? Well, because we know Donald Trump, that when it becomes personal, he's going to come after you personally.

• 1:36:58Speaker 02

  And so, he came after Powell personally. Did anybody really on the FOMC outside of Steve Myron vote against whatever it was that Powell wanted to do or not do?

• 1:37:10Speaker 02

  Donald Trump just should have come after the whole committee and maybe called each one of them out on the fact that they didn't pursue his more aggressive interest rate cuts. But he went after Powell. Powell is just the leader. It's like you're coming after the quarterback. Bring up the football analogy. You're coming after the quarterback. It's a whole team, right? So, we tend to overplay the power.

• 1:37:36Patrick Bet-David?

  So it's interesting. So it's it's seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, one permanent seat, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, four rotating seats from the other 11 regional Federal Reserve Bank president, seven governors, only 12 votes, and this group sets interest rates, monetary policies, decisions, move markets, inflation, jobs. So he's got one vote and his one vote is not above everybody else. Brandon, your thoughts?

• 1:38:02Speaker 11

  Yeah, that's super interesting, and I do wish that Trump would have come after the whole concept of the Fed the way he's coming after the head of it. And yeah, I mean, the thing with a lot of these people, I don't think there's like a lot of diversity in opinion. It's a lot like politics where you're either kind of a dove or a hawk. And you know, they tend to, I think, overcorrect a lot of the time. But this guy, for example, I was laughing, it says in the past that he was calling to raise interest rates in 2009, when we were at the bottom of a recession, then you know, he was suddenly dovish when Trump was trying to be dovish in 2018. So kind of goes in whatever direction the wind's blowing. And not super excited, but you know, he's probably like slight increase, slight

• 1:38:43Speaker 11

  better than Powell, because I think Powell's been consistently wrong every time, loosened too much in 2020, tightened too quickly, too late. But yeah, no, I wish Trump would attack the concept more than just the person of it, because I think that we don't have a serious economy until the concept of the Federal Reserve controlling the price of money goes away or changes.

• 1:39:03Patrick Bet-David?

  You know what? What's the one thing people forget, Tom? Is Elizabeth Warren makes it seem like him and Jerome Powell are best friends. And here's what they forget. Who appointed Jerome Powell?

• 1:39:14Speaker 11

  Trump.

• 1:39:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Trump did. So if there's one thing you got to give credit to Powell, is he did his job as much as he could, no matter how much hate he was. He got in trouble a little bit with this building stuff that was not pretty, was nasty. Hey, you spent this much money, you were supposed to spend this much money. And it was problematic. But at least Powell did his job. He is not the most liked guy in the economy today. But he held it together. Okay, so good for him. So Kevin, he comes and she's asking questions like that, oh, because he's appointing you, you're going to do this. This guy, Tom said it yesterday, he's probably going to be a, potentially could be a Definitely gonna be for two, but it potentially could be a, you know, chair for three different presidents on the six years.

• 1:39:56Patrick Bet-David?

  So Trump, whoever gets elected 28, if they're one term, it could be another person next term. Or it could be a two-term, you know, same president. So it'll be, it'll be interesting while we're going through it.

• 1:40:05Tom Ellsworth?

  And by the way, what's interesting to look at, one simple chart, if we can look at one and move on.

• 1:40:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Go for it.

• 1:40:09Tom Ellsworth?

  I know we've been on this for a minute.

• 1:40:13Tom Ellsworth?

  You got, Rob, you have the dot plot I just sent you to Wednesday?

• 1:40:20Tom Ellsworth?

  And that list of people there, usually you'll see 18, 19 dots on this, but it's, you've got the 12 votes. And you can see where it's going. Scroll down, right, right there. Click on that. See there, Pat? There it is. So there's the dot plot. Those are represented by, you know, the Fed voters. But they all get influenced. And the chairman of the Fed, you know, talks to these people and he does lobby his group. And part of the job of the chairman of the Fed is to kinda make the peace or keep the peace. And you can see right here, the majority of the dots are only down a quarter point for year end 26. You can get rid of that. And then next year, they're only aiming to another quarter point.

• 1:41:03Tom Ellsworth?

  So unless we have economic stats that go crazy, you know, this is where it is. But somebody, the summary of economic projections is also what you look at. And they publish that every third meeting or something like that. It's not every meeting. Summary of economic projections is like every.

• 1:41:20Speaker 02

  I think it's like twice a year.

• 1:41:23Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah.

• 1:41:25Tom Ellsworth?

  So.

• 1:41:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Interesting.

• 1:41:26Tom Ellsworth?

  You can see which way it's going, but to, to say that he's one guy and only one vote, I think kinda understates the influence he has on these, these dots and, and these folks.

• 1:41:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Let's keep going. Let's keep going to the next story. Very interesting. Next story I want to get to is we covered the jet fuel. Let's talk about Andy Jassy. Okay, the whole Amazon. Actually, you know what? Let's do Cash Patel. Uh, on what happened there with specifically the story of the Southern Poverty Law Center. Did you follow the story with the Southern Poverty Law Center?

• 1:41:55Speaker 02

  Just peripherally.

• 1:41:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, very, very interesting. So yesterday, everybody's doing their own thing and then all of a sudden, it's dropped that this organization, the Southern Poverty Law Center, which by the way, originally they got started for, with noble reasons, right? Time you were talking about Martin Luther King.

• 1:42:13Tom Ellsworth?

  1971, right after 68 and civil rights.

• 1:42:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. So, so the intentions were good. And then all of a sudden. Reports came out yesterday. Elon retweeted this, Mark Andreessen retweeted this. There's a bunch of people on X. I'll get a bunch of those tweets. We'll get to it. Is this the clip about Cash talking about that?

• 1:42:29Speaker 21

  Yes.

• 1:42:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Go for it.

• 1:42:30Speaker 21

  What we're here today is to announce what the, what the general just told you. The Southern Poverty Law Center, in a massive, sweeping indictment, has been charged with allegations of fraud and using the banking system to perpetrate that fraud. I just want to talk about a couple of brief things here. The Southern Poverty Law Center themselves advertised to raise money to dismantle violent extremist groups for a period of at least a decade. They used their donor network to raise money to purportedly dismantle violent extremist groups. However, the SPLC, the Southern Poverty Law Center, used the money they raised from their donor network to actually pay the leadership of these very groups.

• 1:43:15Speaker 21

  I just want to say that again. They used the fraudulently raised money by lying to their donor network, thousands of Americans, to go ahead and actually pay the leadership of these supposed violent extremist groups. The groups, as the general laid out, include the Ku Klux Klan, the United Clans of America, Unite to Right, National Alliance, the National Socialist Movement, the Aryan Nation Motorcycle Club, and the National Socialist Party of America, and also the American Front.

• 1:43:48Speaker 21

  In at least one of these matters, our investigation revealed that funds were used to facilitate the commission of further state and federal offenses totaling over $3 million. Furthermore, our investigation revealed that the Southern Poverty Law Center, on top of perpetuating this widespread, decade-long, multimillion-dollar fraud, conducted more criminal activity. They attempted to hide their criminal activity from our financial banking network. They set up shell companies and entities around America so that the financial institutions that we rely on as everyday Americans were deceived in believing that money was not coming

• 1:44:30Speaker 21

  from the Southern Poverty Law Center in the perpetration of this scheme and fraud, but rather fictitious entities they stood up to perpetuate this ongoing fraud.

• 1:44:40Speaker 21

  This is a serious and egregious violation of a group that purported to dismantle violent extremist groups, but in turn actually only fueled the hatred. This is an important case brought by President Trump's administration. We're thankful to the President for his leadership and funding of not just the FBI and DOJ, but his commitment to go out there and wipe out fraud and conspiracy and waste and abuse wherever it occurs, including the Southern Poverty Law Center. Even though this money was made to appear to be coming from legitimate people and legitimate entities, we at the FBI with our great partners at the Department of Justice and in the state of Alabama, were able to comb through a decade worth of material, a scheme that took a decade to build.

• 1:45:24Patrick Bet-David?

  Rob, can you pull up the tweet from the Department of Justice showing what organizations went through it? I tweeted it to you, I'm sorry, I texted it to you. It's one of the things that was in my file right there. Okay, go for it. So, watch this. And Tom, I'm gonna come to you first. So, this is the Department of Justice yesterday, Justice for Justice indictment against Southern Poverty Law Center indictment of more than $3 million. And if you go a little bit closer to it on the right one, click on the right one, there you go. They paid $1 million to Nationalized Affiliate, $300,000 to Aryan Nations Affiliate, $270 to Unite the Right Member, $140,000 to former National Alliance Chairman, former KKK Members got $73,000, and American Front President and Felon $19,000.

• 1:46:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom, why is this so important?

• 1:46:11Tom Ellsworth?

  Here's what's going on. There is very little difference between what we're seeing here as Southern Poverty Law Center and the fraud that we saw in creating fake hospices or fake daycares. Money was coming that was good money, like good tax dollars that were supposed to be coming to daycare centers in Minneapolis so that lower-income people would be able to take their children to a daycare center and have trust that this was checked out by the government and the government's providing a subsidy there too. Okay. These guys were deceiving the donors to give them money and they were using it to pay themselves, but then they were also using it to start trouble by having, by actually

• 1:46:55Tom Ellsworth?

  funding people that create the problems that they say they're going to be solving. And so what they were trying to do is make these, all these enemies look bad and look like there was more racism and more problems than there actually was, so that they could help, you know, elections and they could help Democrat elections. And because the Southern Poverty Law Center used to pick a candidate, we could find all kinds of Democrat candidates standing up with these guys because it was like the old League of Women Voters, Pat. League of Women Voters was seen as being a premier, you know, fairly impartial group that was trying to help people get registered to vote. It was a good group. They want fair elections, all this.

• 1:47:38Tom Ellsworth?

  These guys were holding themselves out to be some, some wonderful supportive cast here, but they were out there trying to create all this discord so that the left could say, "Look how many problems we have in America. Look at all these things are going on. We need Barack Obama to be president and we need this." It's a whole, it was a whole circular scam.

• 1:47:58Speaker 06

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• 1:48:59Speaker 08

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• 1:49:29Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, and by the way, Rob, you want to pull up a couple of those tweets on what they call Turning Point USA? This is Mark and Reese saying, "SPLC was one of the most powerful censorship forces in the country for decades, lavishly supported by many big American companies for many years. This is astonishing and deeply concerning." Look at how many views this tweet got alone. Go a little bit lower. Forty-one million views, just on that one. Go to the next one. No, the other one, Rob, the one with Thomas Sowell. I think, yeah, the one I just sent you right there, Rabbit. "Racism is not dead, but it's on life support." This is Thomas Sowell. "Kept alive by politicians, race hustlers, and people who get a sense of superiority by denouncing others as racist." Look at this meme. Look at this meme. SPLC racism. Keep it alive. We need it.

• 1:50:14Patrick Bet-David?

  We can't get rid of it, right? And then Charlie Kirk was on... This is, of course, a late Charlie Kirk. "SPLC put a target on Charlie's back by naming him and TPUSA their manufactured hate map. They used this fiction to monetize the ensuing hysteria and then funnel the proceeds into Charlottesville and other convenient vehicles to force a nationwide dragnet of mainstream." When Charlie said this, people are like, "What are you talking about?" Play the clip, Rob. And then we'll go to the Todd Blanch, where the reporter says allegedly. And he says, "No, no, no. There is no allegedly. This is what happened." Go ahead.

• 1:50:48Speaker 22

  The Southern Poverty Law Center has now labeled... You're in the club with me, by the way. They've labeled Turning Point as a hate group.

• 1:50:56Speaker 23

  Yes.

• 1:50:58Speaker 22

  Coming from a hateful group like them.

• 1:50:59Speaker 23

  It's a surprise it took them so long to get us on the list.

• 1:51:01Speaker 22

  I know. What took you so long?

• 1:51:02Speaker 23

  I understand that they're literally putting high school chapters of ours on a hate group next to the KKK and next to neo-Nazi groups. And I mean, we can laugh this off. There's an element to this. Remember that there was a shooter that went to the Family Research Council years ago, inspired by the SPLC list. This is them trying to make us basically surrender at Turning Point USA. We're going to do the opposite and our students are only going to lean in even more. But they can't debate us on our ideas. They cannot have dialogue. They cannot actually go on to the merits of why they are right or why we might be wrong. Instead, they must smear us with the age-old one-liner that you are a racist or that you are a hater. And they're finally realizing the power of Turning Point USA, which is why they put us on this list.

• 1:51:45Speaker 22

  Well, when you're effective, you're a threat, right? So they called me the high priestess of hate.

• 1:51:50Patrick Bet-David?

  You can pause it right there.

• 1:51:51Speaker 22

  Right, Sam?

• 1:51:51Patrick Bet-David?

  You can pause it. Mother, what did Todd Blanch say about it? And then David, I'm going to come to you. Here's Todd Blanch. Do you have the question where he's being asked and says allegedly, and he says, "No, no, this is not allegedly. They were involved in Charlottesville." Go, play the clip that you have first with, go ahead.

• 1:52:08Speaker 22

  About Charlottesville and the Charlottesville Unite the Right rally. Were they involved in that?

• 1:52:13Speaker 24

  Yes. So what we allege in the indictment and what the grand jury found is that one of the individuals that they paid was one of the folks who helped organize that terrible event. And so imagine what we're talking about, Laura. We're talking about an organization that actively came out and just screamed it from the top of their lungs.

• 1:52:32Speaker 22

  So just so people understand watching this, did these informants, in some cases, given the evidence you've seen, actually initiate what would ultimately be these activities? And obviously Charlottesville ended with a tragedy.

• 1:52:48Speaker 24

  Well, we know that they were part of those. They were part of it. Whether they were the leaders or the initiators, that'll come out, I think, eventually. But what we do know is that the very entities that this group was raising money to go against are the very entities that they were taking the money in and paying to these entities and these individuals associated with those groups.

• 1:53:07Speaker 22

  What was the money used for?

• 1:53:09Speaker 24

  Well, it was, we don't know, because again, all we know is that they said-

• 1:53:13Patrick Bet-David?

  By the way, you can pause it right there. Uh, there was a message going around yesterday of who gave money to SPLC. These are some names. And we verified it today, Rob. Uh, one of them, it says George Clooney and Amal gave them a million bucks. Is that true? Confirmed, yes. 2017, Unite the Right rally, Clooney gave him a million dollars. Tim Cook, I didn't know that one, gave a million dollars. Plus another million dollars to ADL. Tim Cook is a story we're gonna get into that because he just stepped down. And then JP Morgan Chase, yeah, multiple reports saying that they gave $500,000 to SPLC from PJ Media. So, you know, it, it, more and more names are coming out. David, how are you processing this information yourself?

• 1:53:55Speaker 02

  Well, look, from, you know, from where I sit, I always look at stuff from a, an economic and market perspective, but I would say that more from a humanity perspective, uh, you know, the war, uh, that the Trump administration pledged, uh, to wage and is waging against, uh, you know, fraud, uh, and abuse and waste. And in this case, uh, hate, uh, has to be applauded. Uh, and then you start wondering how much more of this is there? You know, like when Trump was talking about the deep state and people were rolling their eyes, yeah, no, it actually exists.

• 1:54:33Speaker 02

  How many more skeletons are in the closet? Uh, that's what I'm thinking about.

• 1:54:37Patrick Bet-David?

  And I'm, I'm soaking. By the way, you know, this is like a very big victory for FBI because the FBI kinda needed something like this. So good for them for having something here. Brandon, your thoughts?

• 1:54:48Speaker 11

  Yeah, uh, stuff that comes to mind with the, the scope of how big this could be. It's like when you see those reports of, um, we can't account for something like $21 trillion of the federal budget over the last 30 years. So, yeah, uh, I mean, probably a lot of stuff like this. It's almost as crazy as if, um, the US government was to give money to something that ended up being a terrorist group in order to justify going overseas and fighting a war for it. So, I mean, not that we've done that before or anything, but it'd be like that crazy. So it's like a flywheel effect and it's a very effective model if, um, you're looking to create a problem that you're raising money to solve.

• 1:55:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. And by the way, this is the clip that I was talking about when the reporter tried to say allegedly. Are you alleging? I'm not alleging. Watch this.

• 1:55:28Speaker 14

  I just wanna make sure I understand. You're alleging that the Southern Poverty Law Center was paying the leaders of KKK and, and other groups to continue-

• 1:55:40Speaker 14

  Their operations, is that?

• 1:55:41Speaker 24

  I'm not alleging it, the grand jury returned an indictment that says that. And so, what the investigation found according to the indictment that was returned today, is that they were paying, so Southern Poverty Law Center is raising money, asking folks to give them money to dismantle racism.

• 1:55:58Patrick Bet-David?

  You can pause right there. Can you imagine that? Hey, and I don't know if there's any other reports coming out. Remember when all of a sudden, everybody started dropping the N-word? And it became a normal thing, you're like, wait a minute, what are you guys doing? I'm talking about specifically on Twitter. It's like, you're just dropping, dropping. Is somebody saying, say that? To say how much it exists? And it's like, what are you guys doing here? Who's create, well, you know, it's freedom of speech, I can say whatever I want to say. And, you know, I know Elon is all a, what does he call himself? A freedom of speech absolut, what is it? Absolutist. Absolutist? It's fine, but you, makes you think, were some people getting paid behind closed doors to keep this thing going? I don't know.

• 1:56:41Patrick Bet-David?

  But I do know that this is coming out, and we're gonna learn a lot about a lot of different people. Now, let's go to Tim Cook. While we're telling this story, you know, with Tim Cook giving a million dollars to SPLC, the report comes out that Tim Cook has stepped down as the CEO. What page is that in, Rob? Uh, oh, there it is, on the bottom of 26. Tim Cook has stepped down as Apple CEO and John Turner's named successor, Tom. Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

• 1:57:10Tom Ellsworth?

  I think it's, I think it's probably a good thing. Uh, there's a lot of people, including me, that look at the Tim Cook line and say, okay, Tim, you know, we've been kind of waiting for his next product. Uh, and he's been, you know, cycling out the new releases of the iPhone. Like, let me ask you, Pat, do you really see a difference between your current iPhone and say, two iPhones ago? No. There hasn't been any big jump. The battery seems to be, you know, fixed. They used to, you know, allegedly had the auto wearout features, so your battery would have difficulty charging. And all of a sudden, you're buying a new iPhone because you thought the old one got tired. And in reality, it was, uh... The device allegedly was managing a battery. But what product?

• 1:57:55Tom Ellsworth?

  Remember when Steve Jobs came out with the AI? But the, um, and David, you probably remember this. Steve Jobs comes out on stage with an envelope and slides out a MacBook Air. You know, and things like this. I don't remember the last time that Tim Cook had like a defining product. The Apple Watch has thrived under him. But what has been the next product? And there's been some criticism about, there it is. Pulls out the envelope. Turns out it's a, it's a MacBook Air. I mean, the theater and the innovation and everything that was behind their products. Tim Cook is not known to be the product guy. He's known to be the incredibly efficient, you know, driver of the company. And I think it's looking for its next product. And well, you know what's interesting?

• 1:58:40Tom Ellsworth?

  This guy is a product guy.

• 1:58:43Patrick Bet-David?

  He is.

• 1:58:43Tom Ellsworth?

  So that's the criticism has been, what is the next product?

• 1:58:47Patrick Bet-David?

  He's the Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering.

• 1:58:49Tom Ellsworth?

  Yep. What is the next product? And what is our AI play? Have been the big questions that have been asked on Apple. Um, and now, you know, it's, and by the way, but you can't argue with the success of Apple under Tim Cook's leadership. But I, you know what? No train keeps going forever. There's no perpetual momentum machine. And Apple needs to find its next chapter and its product in an age of AI. When things are going to be changing dramatically, especially in the, the app environment.

• 1:59:22Patrick Bet-David?

  David, your thoughts?

• 1:59:23Speaker 02

  Uh, look, I, I don't think it ever comes down to one particular person at the top. It's the whole company. And I think that, uh, I look at Apple and it is a really a, a high-end, uh, consumer gadget company. That's what it is. Uh, that's what it's always been. Um, but it's got the brand name and, uh, what continues to ride, no matter who's at the top is the fact they have a cult.

• 1:59:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you use the product? Are you an Apple user?

• 1:59:49Speaker 02

  Yeah, I am. They have a cult, but I don't chase like I don't.

• 1:59:51Patrick Bet-David?

  You're part of the cult.

• 1:59:52Speaker 02

  I am part of the cult, but I don't have a, I, uh, uh, uh, like iPhone 15. Okay. Like it goes back, that's, that's what they specialize in. Uh, and, and, uh, it's worked like, uh, you know, planned obsolescence. There's not a company on the planet that has perfected planned obsolescence like Apple has. But yeah, I, uh,

• 2:00:14Speaker 02

  I use the product, but you know, whatever it is they produce today, I might buy cheaper like three years from now. You know what I mean? So but that they take advantage of that. They take advantage of that consumer psyche.

• 2:00:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, so you know, it's interesting because Tim Cook, Tom came from a position of you know how you were looking at who they chose to replace Bob Iger. It was the guy that was running the parks, right? And Chapek was the same thing as well, running the parks, right? So they didn't learn from their mistake and their choosing the same type of a person.

• 2:00:47Speaker 02

  They're back to the parks.

• 2:00:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Exactly. But you know what Apple did? Because Tim Cook, before he became the CEO, he used to be the VP of Operations, then he became the COO, and then became CEO, which is the traditional way of operations guy that becomes, you know, because typically the COO is really the active president. And then so he ends up becoming the CEO. They're taking a completely different route. They're choosing a guy that's a product guy to say, no, we want the product guy to be a CEO. And by the way, do we have any clips of how he speaks? Like, is he a good speaker on stage? Does he have presence on stage? Are we going to get the days of a new product launch and him coming out and showing something and saying, this is the chip you will put in your brain to have access

• 2:01:30Patrick Bet-David?

  to all Wikipedia and 600,000 books ever written. You will have all that knowledge. Is that him?

• 2:01:38Speaker 02

  Yeah, but this is a report. I don't believe it.

• 2:01:40Patrick Bet-David?

  I just want to know how he speaks. That's all I want to know. Like, is this him speaking? I don't think that's him. Is it? Is that it? No. Okay, can you do me a favor? Go to YouTube, type up his name and go to search popularity for most video and let's see what comes up. If he has the ability to be a good orator like Steve Jobs was and get the attention of speakers and get the attention of the audience. Okay, so zoom into most views. Go a little bit lower. What is that? Who is John CEO? I just want to know how he speaks. That's all I care about. I don't want to do an interview. I just want to know how the guy speaks on stage. Is that him?

• 2:02:16Speaker 02

  Behind when it comes to AI.

• 2:02:19Patrick Bet-David?

  You have the other one on X speaking as well. Yeah, there you go.

• 2:02:23Patrick Bet-David?

  Now Rob, you're gonna show us a commercial? Stop chasing invoices. Okay, alright. It's a long one. That's a legit one. That's called "Pay Your Bills on YouTube So You Can Get Free Videos." Uh, let's see this. Audio? I don't believe we are.

• 2:02:41Speaker 25

  Not to worry.

• 2:02:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Not to worry.

• 2:02:43Speaker 26

  And that was Johnny Sirugi agreeing with him. Now, Sirugi is long been at Apple's chief.

• 2:02:47Patrick Bet-David?

  That's a lot of communication, Rob. Phenomenal. I mean, I just have a very good flavor of how good of a speaker he is. Well, there you go. Let's see it.

• 2:02:55Speaker 25

  The most profound change at Apple, certainly in our products over the last 20 years, is how we now do so many of those technologies in-house. And, you know, top of the list, of course, is our silicon.

• 2:03:04Patrick Bet-David?

  A little bit more charismatic than Tim Cook. A little bit more charismatic, because Tim Cook is very monotone. He's very serious. And by the way, I know a lot of people are, you know... I like a couple positions Tim Cook took in San Bernardino shooting when he said, "I'm not giving you the information to Obama." There's certain things he did, you know... Anytime you have a position like that, you're gonna get a lot of criticism. People are gonna be able to say stuff. Of course, not a lot of good products came out of it. It wasn't like a... It was more of a business deal that he operated the investment well. Maybe now we're gonna get some new products coming out of Apple and we may be able to get David to spend more money, because he's not spending enough money. Go ahead. We're gonna buy new products, yeah.

• 2:03:42Speaker 11

  Question for you. So, um, I mean, I kind of think and wonder, could a wide variety of people have done exactly what Tim Cook did and just like not screwed it up? Because I mean, I think that the leader is really important. I started reading the book, "The 21 Undisputable Laws of Leadership."

• 2:03:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Excellent, yeah.

• 2:03:58Speaker 11

  And it's given me a good idea of like how far a vision could take something. I mean, was Steve Jobs' vision so powerful that anybody... or not anybody, but like a handful of people could have taken it from 300 billion to 4 trillion? I mean, Jobs took it from like 14,000% increase in its valuation. Um, and then, what's the name? Um, Cook took it 1,000%. So, was it so good and so powerful that a lot of people could have done that? Or was there something special about the moat that Tim Cook kept putting up around it?

• 2:04:24Patrick Bet-David?

  No, so, you know, listen, sometimes... Sometimes the mistake you make is, like you're in a relationship. You date a girl, she's a psycho. But she's a lot of fun. Then what do you date? You're like, I will never date a psycho who's a lot of fun. You go to what? Boring. Safe and boring. And you try to find a, you know, so did they go from crazy psycho Steve Jobs to, hey, we just need somebody that can talk to the, you know, quarterly calls and he's very conservative and he knows how to handle it well and it won't scare anybody? Yeah. They went this way. But remember, after Jobs, they also went to who? When Jobs brought the other president from Pepsi, what was his name? Scully or something like that? John Sculley. John Sculley and so we're gonna see. I mean, the verdict's out and he's got a lot of pressure, but guess what?

• 2:05:09Patrick Bet-David?

  When Tim Cook became an employee, he was worth a few million bucks. Tim Cook is now worth $3 billion. This guy, if he does it right, he's gonna be a billionaire in the next few years and maybe even he'll be able to afford to buy Apple products one day. Let's go to Andy Jassy. Andy Jassy called out Gen Z. Gen Z, brace for impact. You may be very offended by what Andy had to say. The gall, the audacity, the CEO of Amazon, has to say something like this video. I think you've got a video on this. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy tells Gen Z that if they want to be successful, they have to pay their dues first. Go ahead, Rob.

• 2:05:42Speaker 27

  The other thing is, I was talking with a young person in college last week or so. Very smart person, asking them about their, what they want to do in the summer and maybe full-time. And we're having this conversation and they were rejecting certain things under the guise of, well, it's not really my dream job. And I would just say at 20, you know,

• 2:06:03Patrick Bet-David?

  It's a bit early for your dream job.

• 2:06:05Speaker 27

  You're probably, you could get your dream job, but that would be complete luck. Like, you know, I think early on, you really have to be willing to pay your dues. You have to be willing to start at the bottom. You have to do whatever people ask you to do within reason. But you, you have to get good at the details. You have to learn to deliver. You have to learn to be reliable. You know, and all that learning, apart from being the right way, you know, I think the right approach to have, all those skills are skills that you learn, you know, from having to do all the little hard, detailed jobs and they build a skillset.

• 2:06:46Patrick Bet-David?

  By the way, you can watch a whole video and see what he's going through. It's seven minutes long. We're not gonna do it today. He's talking to Gen Z, right, to encourage Gen Z, which is great. But a New York Post story comes out. And you have to understand, this is a different Gen Z today, David. Okay? That says the following, you ready for this? Rob, if you want to put it out there so they can see it. Who needs PTO? Gen Z wants Ozempic on the job. And by the way, at first I thought this was an Onion story. Then I said, it's gotta be Babylon Bee. And I'm like, no, it's New York Post, the oldest paper in America. What the hell are we talking about? Forget free snacks in a break room for Gen Z. Choosing between jobs isn't always about salary, pay time off, or cushy perks. It's about who covers their weight loss drugs.

• 2:07:28Patrick Bet-David?

  A new ZipHeld survey of more than 1,000 workers found 47% of Zoomers, the generation ages 14 to 29, said coverage like, for drugs like Ozempic or Wegovy. Wegovy, what, how do you pronounce it? Wegovy? Am I saying it correctly? Wegovy? Would sway their decision between two job offers. Okay? This is a real story, folks. GLP-1 right now costs $1,000 to $1,200 a month, without insurance, according to GoodRx. And the funny part of this story, that we just had Andy Jassy giving advice. Then Gen Z says they want Ozempic on the job. On the same exact day, Amazon launches GLP-1 weight loss program,

• 2:08:12Patrick Bet-David?

  promising fast, convenient access. So Tom, I'm gonna lump in three stories together and see how you're gonna react to it. Take any angle you want to take. Go ahead.

• 2:08:21Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, first of all, maybe it was all those free snacks in the break room that led to the problem that now you need GLP-1. Taking all these sugar and Snickers and all, you know, granola bars that are nothing but sugar.

• 2:08:35Speaker 06

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• 2:09:05Speaker 07

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• 2:09:35Speaker 08

  Now, more than ever, we need someone on our side. But Rob Whitman? Whitman's votes drove up costs, cut Medicaid, and risked 350,000 Virginians' health care to pay for tax breaks for himself and his donors. He's not on our side. Shannon Taylor will fight corruption, cut taxes, and bring down costs. This November, vote for Shannon Taylor. She's for us. Paid for by HMP, the House Majority PAC dot com. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

• 2:10:07Tom Ellsworth?

  Sorry.

• 2:10:08Patrick Bet-David?

  You want me to go to David or you?

• 2:10:09Tom Ellsworth?

  I'm okay. So, I see two things on this.

• 2:10:12Patrick Bet-David?

  You got, that's too much vodka.

• 2:10:15Tom Ellsworth?

  I know. It's like, hey, Tito's and cranberry? Next time remember the cranberry?

• 2:10:21Patrick Bet-David?

  In the morning, 9 a.m.? Okay, David, I'll come to you, Tom, I'll come to you afterwards. You ready?

• 2:10:26Tom Ellsworth?

  Yes, I am. So I think there's two things going on here. First of all, Amazon is doing what Amazon does. They distribute products, they put in programs, and they've got, you know, subscription programs for audible and things like that. And so to put in a program to help you more economically get access to GLP-1 drugs, not a surprise at all. And then the other side of it is, we're living in, what do they call it, maxing? You know, we're living in the environment where people want to max out appearance and they're willing to do all these things and invest on it. And we're living in the microwave environment. Everybody, nobody wants to work hard. You know what I mean, Pat? They just want to put it in the microwave, beep beep beep, and get it. Just like Andy Jassy said, they want their dream job tomorrow morning. Well, guess what? They want weight loss tomorrow morning.

• 2:11:11Tom Ellsworth?

  Or rather than stepping back and looking at things and saying, what are you eating? What are you eating? Do you eat late at night? All these normal things. Do you have apples versus a $7 bag of Doritos? You know, all these things? Oh, well, just give me the GLP so I can, you know, there's my microwave solution to losing weight. And by the way... This is expensive stuff. So if you're willing to give me, you know, a benefit of that, I might be willing to come to work for you. And then Amazon's like, wait a minute. Tell what? If you'll pay for it, guess what? I'll fulfill it. So to me, it's like the circle. It's a bad circle of life, but it's just a, it's a economic circle around weight loss, you know, with the, you know, zoomer in the middle wanting a microwave solution.

• 2:11:56Patrick Bet-David?

  David?

• 2:11:57Speaker 02

  I think that's a much bigger macro story than that. This is basically about how a large swath of the population is viewing, how they're looking towards their career and the job choices that they're going to be making as opposed to, is this the right fit for me? And how do I climb the ladder? And how do I become more productive? So when we start talking about bells and whistles like this as the incentive for where I'm going to work, it tells me as an economist that this is a dead weight drag on future productivity growth. That this is the way, the mentality is for people doing the job search.

• 2:12:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Brandon, what are you thinking?

• 2:12:41Speaker 11

  Yeah, I have a hard time trusting fat people, to be honest. And especially when it comes to like-

• 2:12:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Did you have a hard time trusting fat people?

• 2:12:48Speaker 11

  Yes. Because if you can't be trusted to get yourself in shape, how can you be trusted to work hard and be reliable? And even if you try to work hard, you're probably going to not be too durable over the long haul. So I think like, and that's not to mention that taking the route of taking the GLPs, like 12% of the population's on it now, horrible for, like, if you want to lose weight, you could start fasting. I mean, you know, if you don't have the discipline to get yourself in shape and how are you going to have the discipline to, you know, advance yourself in your career? So like, you know, one naturally feeds the other. If you do difficult things, you can do, do difficult things again. So, I mean, I don't, I'm not saying I don't trust fat people's character. I don't trust them to do difficult things if they can't do the difficult thing of losing the fat in the first place.

• 2:13:29Patrick Bet-David?

  You ever heard the song, "You Look Wonderful Tonight"?

• 2:13:31Speaker 11

  Mm-mm.

• 2:13:32Patrick Bet-David?

  I didn't think so. Maybe, but it doesn't ring a bell off the top of my head. You know which song that is, right? Uh, I, I sure do. It was, uh.

• 2:13:39Speaker 02

  Eric Clapton.

• 2:13:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Eric Clapton, yeah. So what are you gonna do when your wife comes and asks you, honey, how do I look? And maybe she's put on some weight after having a kid. Are you not gonna say, babe, you look wonderful tonight? You gonna say, you look fat? I have, I have. That what you're gonna do? I have empathy. Are you a fat shaming guy? Yeah. I hope you have a comfortable couch, dude. I am. No, I, I mean, look, I understand what you're saying, you know? Yeah. The, the, the reality of it is, the challenge is, the, the, the, the not willing to do the exercise, not willing to do the routine of going to the gym. There's nothing healthier for you than actually moving your flipping body. One of the best things you can do is just move your damn body. Go out there, walk, run, exercise, play with your kids, play sports.

• 2:14:22Patrick Bet-David?

  You know, I tried to play some sports this last two weeks ago, whatever the Saturday is, and I tore my MCL and then I, my ACL is full tear, MCL, I've already told the story, but... What's the degree of caution? Yeah, it's funny though, when you're talking to doctors and doctors tell you, there's four different ways to do the surgery for the ACL. I talked to three doctors. One of them this morning, one of them yesterday, the one I talked to this morning, he did a surgery on the greatest of all time in one sport. So I don't want to mention the guy's name because then you'll know who the doctor is. And we're having a call together. And one way is the cadaver, like the, you know, they're just gonna put it there. And the guy showed me the video. The other way is pulling from your hamstrings. And if you're not too, you know, you have hamstring issues, low back issues, that's not a good way to do it.

• 2:15:04Patrick Bet-David?

  Then there is from your quad, slightly a little longer recovery and your quad gets a little bit weaker. And there, there's one other way of doing it. Patella? Uh, I think that's what it is, yeah. From the knee? Yeah, from the knee, patella. So, uh, one doctor says, two thirds of his surgeries are patella. One third is from the quad, because that's the new way of doing it the last 13, 15 years. But I'm going through this phase right now, so we have to do what we have to do. And yesterday, one doctor says, I want you to push, try to hyperextend your leg. Great. Lower your bottom of your knee to the ground. Fantastic. How high is your heel from the ground? I said, one inch. He says, you're gonna be fine, you're somewhat flexible. I says, can you stand up and touch your toes? I said, easily. He says, then we have to do a different kind of... It's so interesting going through this process, but folks, move, exercise, and, um...

• 2:15:50Patrick Bet-David?

  But if you do want some GLP ones, apparently you can get them at Amazon now. Can we do one last story? Let me see what story? Do we want to do one last story that we have left? Rob, is there anything we have to hit? Are we good? Because we've covered so many stories today. I think we're good with stories on what we got. David, great having you on. Thank you. Folks, if you're listening, David has a article he writes every year since you said, "What year, 1998?" Or did you say 90? 1998. 1998. It's called Breakfast with Dave. And we'll put the link below for you to go read and study what he has to say. And aside from that, for those of you guys that are watching the podcast, you enjoy conversations like this, smash that subscribe button. Helps us with our algorithms.

• 2:16:35Patrick Bet-David?

  God bless everybody. We'll do it again. Oh, tomorrow? Yes. Oh, tomorrow, we may have a special CIA-ish type of podcast. I'll just let you know if it goes live. If not, you'll see it anyways. It should be a good one. Take care, everybody. Bye-bye, bye-bye.

• 2:17:16Speaker 07

  Now at Kroger, your points add up to more ways to save every trip. Use them your way to take dollars off groceries at checkout or save at the pump. You can even save up to $35 on your next fill-up. Same points, more choices. And with low prices on fresh, quality food, plus digital and personalized offers tailored to how you shop, your dollar goes further. Redeem your points online or in the app. Kroger, fresh for everyone. Restrictions apply. See site or store for details.

• 2:17:46Speaker 08

  Now, more than ever, we need someone on our side. But Rob Whitman? Whitman's votes drove up costs, cut Medicaid, and risked 350,000 Virginians' health care to pay for tax breaks for himself and his donors. He's not on our side. Shannon Taylor will fight corruption, cut taxes, and bring down costs. This November, vote for Shannon Taylor. She's for us. Paid for by HMP, the House Majority PAC dot com. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.