#286 Ethan Thornton - This 22-Year-Old Built a .50 Cal Rifle Out of Home Depot Parts

Ethan Thornton is the Founder and CEO of Mach Industries, a defense technology company developing next-generation unmanned systems and hydrogen-powered weapons platforms to redefine modern warfare and energy logistics. Ethan left MIT after one semester in 2023 to focus on building Mach full-time. Originally from Texas, Ethan grew up on a farm where he began prototyping weapons in high school. Funded through car tech jobs, knife and furniture sales, and small engineering projects. His early hands-on ingenuity and deep sense of urgency, intensified by the war in Ukraine—motivated him to accelerate U. S. innovation in unmanned aircraft and weapon systems to help deter China and strengthen national defense capabilities. Under his leadership, Mach Industries has attracted backing from top venture firms including Sequoia Capital, Khosla Ventures, and Bedrock, and has secured major U. S. Army contracts while expanding manufacturing operations. Ethan’s work reflects a broader vision beyond defense. He frequently speaks on the strategic significance of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, the U. S. dollar’s reserve status, the challenge of social decay and neo-feudalism, and the need for productive, post-partisan solutions that secure America’s technological and economic future. Follow the market - https://polymarket.com/event/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027 Shawn Ryan Show Sponsors: Go to https://calderalab.com/SRS. Use code SRS for 20% off your first order. Go to https://helixsleep.com/SRS for 25% off. Make sure you enter our show name after checkout so they know we sent you! Go right now to https://hillsdale.edu/SRS to enroll. There’s no cost, and it’s easy to get started. Ethan Thorton Links: X - https://x.com/ethanrthornton Mach Industries X - https://x.com/mach_industries Mach Industries - https://www.machindustries.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:05Shawn Ryan?

  Dude, what's up?

• 0:06Speaker 01

  Excited to be here.

• 0:07Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, I'm pumped. I gotta tell you, man, when we first talked, Alex Epstein actually sent me a text about you. And um, watched, watched a good portion of the interview you did with him. And then uh, looked you up and I saw you on my buddy Mike Rittlin's podcast. He's a good friend of mine and, and uh, dude, I just, I love what you're doing.

• 0:29Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 0:30Shawn Ryan?

  It's fucking awesome. It's, it's, it's, it's just, it's impressive. It's, it's, I just love talking to people like you. And uh, I'll tell you, it was funny. I mean, you're over there building drones and all this advanced tech shit. And you're like, what are you up to? I'm like, uh,

• 0:46Shawn Ryan?

  I was like, I'm embarrassed to say this, but I'm trying to figure out how to run electricity to my kids' fucking O-scale train set.

• 0:54Speaker 01

  I've been meaning to ask you, you get it running?

• 0:56Shawn Ryan?

  I did.

• 0:56Speaker 01

  Oh, great.

• 0:57Shawn Ryan?

  I got it. So, finally figured it out. Thank God. Yes, it's uh, it's kind of intimidating talking to guys like you. I mean, fucking wicked smart. So, and I'm trying to put a train set together.

• 1:12Speaker 01

  I don't know if I could put a train set together.

• 1:15Shawn Ryan?

  But uh, but anyways, man, I'm really excited about this, so.

• 1:19Speaker 01

  Thank you. Thanks for having me on. I'm, I'm so excited to be here. So excited to talk everything through.

• 1:23Shawn Ryan?

  Oh, man, it's my pleasure. It's my pleasure. Seriously. Um, but uh, yeah, and then, and then this morning at breakfast, do you know Nick? See the ramen?

• 1:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, I do. Wraith Watch.

• 1:33Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, he just uh, we walked in, he was, he was at the place we had breakfast at and uh, it's like, what, what are you still doing? Here was my last interview. I was like, what are you still doing here? He's like, man, I liked it so much. I brought my wife down and uh, we're gonna hang out here for a little bit. So I said, let me know when you need a Realtor. Cause all these guys, all these uh, tech guys from California that come on the show, they get out here and their eyes start opening up and they're like, think I'm gonna get a spot out here.

• 2:03Speaker 01

  That's nice.

• 2:04Shawn Ryan?

  What's that?

• 2:04Speaker 01

  It's nice out here.

• 2:05Shawn Ryan?

  It's a good spot, man. It's a good spot. But um, but yeah. So, let me uh, let me start off with an introduction here. Everybody gets an intro. Oh, actually, I got a little, got a little side question here for you.

• 2:21Speaker 01

  Great.

• 2:21Shawn Ryan?

  For Gen Z.

• 2:24Shawn Ryan?

  In a generation where victim narratives, economic anxiety and algorithm-driven distractions are common, what specific tools, frameworks and inputs have you used to avoid that mindset? And what would you prescribe to Gen Z entrepreneurs who want to build leverage instead of excuses?

• 2:44Speaker 01

  It's a great question.

• 2:46Shawn Ryan?

  Specifically, they're talking about AI tools, books, skill stacks, capital allocation habits, daily operating systems, stuff like that.

• 2:55Speaker 01

  It's a good question. Yeah, I'm gonna take it a different direction. I think it all comes down to building really, really close friends and staying offline as much as you can. Like, it's so easy to get trapped, getting all of your information online. But most of these things can be reasoned from first principles. And so if you surround yourself with really smart people that you can have open and honest conversations with, and actually ideally people who think differently to challenge you, I'd say that's something we all take super, super serious. At least my friends and I, is incredibly important. I think reading history as much as possible. Like, we like to live in these like end of history narratives, but it turns out humans have been facing hard things for a while now.

• 3:38Speaker 01

  And so reading about ways that people got through it. Because we'll talk a lot about, I'm sure, scary things happening in the world right now, but it's actually rare that you have a period of time when things aren't scary. Like, we can go back a thousand years and you look at history at any given point in time, you've got crazy threats. And so, reading about those, thinking a lot about those. I do have like a blocker for YouTube Shorts and stuff. I've never downloaded TikTok, but it's just such a dopamine trap. And so, I would catch myself scrolling for like an hour and look up and be like, what the hell did I just spend an hour of my life I'm never gonna get back on?

• 4:14Shawn Ryan?

  When did you figure that out?

• 4:16Speaker 01

  Well, it ebbs and flows. I mean, I, I think you've always known it. And the, the issue with YouTube is like, I learned a lot of what I know on YouTube. I, I literally started what became Mach because I saw YouTube videos, someone like digging a hole in the ground and like putting coal in there and forging a knife. And so YouTube's, it's, it's both this great spot that you can get the world of information and all these cool people. Like there are YouTube videos of dudes like fabbing semiconductors in their garage. Like that's a crazy thing you have access to. But at the same time, since they installed shorts, they, on YouTube, you can't block shorts. And so while you're trying that, your brain's constantly trying to just like pull you into the dopamine trap of addiction of scrolling YouTube shorts. And so, I don't know, there are good Chrome extensions and stuff that block that nonsense. It's just good to install on your phone and generally have.

• 5:02Speaker 01

  But it, it all comes down to the people you spend your time with, right? And, and maximizing sort of in-person hard conversations with people that challenge you to actually figure out what you do and don't believe and what's sort of fed to you by the world versus what actually makes first principles sense.

• 5:16Shawn Ryan?

  Where else do you get your information from?

• 5:20Speaker 01

  Yeah, there, there, I mean,

• 5:22Shawn Ryan?

  You're 22 years old, right?

• 5:23Speaker 01

  I am.

• 5:24Shawn Ryan?

  This is fucking crazy that you're thinking like this already.

• 5:28Speaker 01

  I appreciate it. Um, I, I really do. I think, look, you, you, you have to tune it and then you have to have like an understanding that even the best news sources are 99% noise. And so I, I like to read as much as I can from, from both sides. X is probably the, the least filtered of the social media sites for obvious reasons. And so it's, it's just good to get a temperature check on what's happening in the world. They're good writers on, on Medium and Substack that you can follow.

• 5:56Speaker 01

  But honestly, just, just come, and then I actually going back YouTube, they're actually like really, really good YouTube channels that just talk about the state of affairs in the world. And you can't take any of this stuff as fact. Like you, you have to have your own belief system that you constantly challenge, that your friends constantly challenge, that you use to sort of filter all of this stuff because you're constantly having something pushed on you. But it's, it's basically like, how can you maximize the amount of data you're given by looking at sources all across the board? And then how do you have basically inertia in what you believe that is brought up from first principles that's constantly deeply challenged by people in your life that's reinforced by people in your life that you trust? And then distill that down to an actual view on the world.

• 6:40Speaker 01

  And then be willing to change that view of the world because it's also very dynamic right now. Like, I think probably things you and I deeply believed a few years ago, we don't believe now. And that's just, that's because of how much the world is changing. And so it's both important to have conviction about what you believe and reach that by digging deep on first principles, but then also be willing to change when facts change and when global state of affairs change.

• 7:01Shawn Ryan?

  How do you find, I mean, you're talking about surrounding yourself with critical thinkers, free thinkers, that's in my experience, that's been very hard to come by, very hard.

• 7:13Speaker 01

  It is.

• 7:13Shawn Ryan?

  In every age group.

• 7:16Speaker 01

  Agreed, agreed. You have to fight for it. And these are relationships that are built over years of having these conversations. And it's, you actually don't find people who think this way, right? Like, you have to develop that relationship. You have to develop the way you think about problems as a group. And I'm, I'm, I'm super fortunate to have lived throughout my life in places where I think I had this, like, growing up, my family very much thought this way in, in high school. And Barney, like, just an incredible group of friends who'd, who'd sit down and have these conversations. I think this will surprise people, but, but even at MIT, like, actually pretty open. So I showed up to

• 7:49Shawn Ryan?

  That's awesome to hear.

• 7:50Speaker 01

  To MIT Campus Preview Weekend, building Mach. At this time, Mach was mostly building, like, rifles. And I show up on campus and I'm talking to everyone about, like, getting people to help me build rifles. You'd imagine that I would have, like, an automatic rifles. You'd imagine I would have gotten kicked off of campus.

• 8:06Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, no kidding.

• 8:08Speaker 01

  And don't get me wrong, like, I, I had a rep for doing that. And plenty of times, there's, folks still joke about this. There was this one time when, like, 20 people came up to me, walk in, at Campus Preview Weekend, and started like an active debate in the street. But at least at MIT, the nice thing was folks, folks are engineers, right? Like, you're, you're actually trying to get to root truth. You're trying to build things, which is a very different way of thinking than basically being obsessed with what the narrative is at the time. And so at MIT, through, through football, through, through Air Force Rats, really, really good human beings who, who think this way and was able, I don't know, to make great friends there. And then the nice thing about Mach these days, like, One of my biggest jobs as CEO is to sort of cultivate this way of thinking and sort

• 8:52Speaker 01

  of obsess about what it means to have people from all different views. Because part of having conviction, what you believe is surrounding yourself with people who challenge you, right? And those people that challenge you, you also have to hold them to first principles, right? But an environment where ideas are brought about from all spectrums, where they're talked about, where they're argued about ruthlessly, and where you can actually condense to what is true and good in the world is super important to build.

• 9:23Shawn Ryan?

  You know, you brought up going back through history and earlier. I'm just curious, this has been a discussion, me and my team and Adam, how much history do you think is accurate? The reason I bring this up is, I haven't said this on any of the show, because this is new, this is coming from an interview that we haven't even released yet, this guy, Pete Blaber. He was an officer over at Delta, and got very high up, I think he was actually the commanding officer. And we went through some events that happened in the global war on terrorism, that he has

• 10:05Shawn Ryan?

  firsthand knowledge that did not go down the way that history has it written. And, you know, this isn't like third-party shit, this isn't from, you know, third person or anything like that, this is his direct experience. And where a lot of this shit stems from, where this goes wrong, is upper leadership trying to protect a specific institution. In this case, it's special operations. That's a very small institution. And two of the examples that he brought, I mean, there are movies made about shit that are not true, that everybody thinks are true.

• 10:48Shawn Ryan?

  And so, I had known a lot of these things, but it was always third-hand knowledge, so it's kind of like, is that fucking conspiracy, or is that real? Now I know for a fact it's real. And so, when I think about history and the way it was written, and just in the global war on terrorism, in the small amount of time that I fought in it, you know, the...

• 11:14Shawn Ryan?

  There's several events that have been written wrong to protect an institution. And that's just SOCOM and JSOC. Then we then we then we scope out, let's just go, you know, all of the military. And let's go all of the United States and then all of the world. How many people there, how many, how many pieces of history have been written false? To protect a fucking institution? And then you think we're living in a very small sliver of time. And so how much and man has not changed.

• 11:50Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 11:51Shawn Ryan?

  How much from the beginning of time until now was is a fucking lie in history?

• 11:58Speaker 01

  It's a good question. Yeah, look, I mean, like, like I was saying, it's it's important to have filters for all of these things. Like you, you, you have to approach like the the root reality that history is written by the victor. Right? And so, yeah, looking back 2000 years, you just have to, you have to keep that in place. I look, I, I, I think history, and this is my personal take, and I might be wrong on it. Generally, on average, is probably accurate with with as relates to to historical events and other things. But the the feelings and and sentiments and actual like as you dig into the the cultural effects that were happening on other things. I it is definitely like it's definitely biased and it's biased in both directions. Right?

• 12:41Speaker 01

  Um, but I I'd say overwhelmingly, yeah, if whatever is said about a a society in power was written by the society that was in power at that given time. And so looking back on on cultures we respect, they're probably worse at the time than we give them credit for. And then on on cultures that we don't respect, it lost, they're they're probably less bad in many ways than we expected. Um, I won't, I won't sit and say I I don't think.

• 13:09Speaker 01

  Look, I I I think the West is genuinely like the light of good in the world. Um, but it's it's certainly not perfect and it's probably it's probably worse than we give it credit for, given that it was written by the West over the last hundred years. But that doesn't that doesn't make me challenge whether or not like the West is the source of good in the world right now. Because I also think, I mean, there's stuff happening over like in in overseas that we we also don't talk enough about.

• 13:35Shawn Ryan?

  Mm hmm.

• 13:36Speaker 01

  Um, I mean, you look at China, you look at like the idea of like a social credit system.

• 13:40Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah.

• 13:41Speaker 01

  Like, so, yes, it's definitely like a a lot muddier than we give it credit for, and there are probably a lot of things that are overdrop like dramatized, and there are probably a lot of things that happen that we don't hear about because they're covered up by parties that were in power at the time. Um, which is why it's it's important to take in as much that out as you can and then filter like crazy and be a critic at every step of the process.

• 14:01Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, I didn't, uh, I just wanna, that that wasn't a poke at the West.

• 14:05Speaker 01

  Oh, no, no, no, I wasn't saying it was, of course, of course.

• 14:08Shawn Ryan?

  I I just meant man humanity as a whole. You know what I mean? Protecting institutions way all the way back to the beginning of time.

• 14:16Speaker 01

  For sure, and our our history is also like stuff before 2000 years ago is not documented incredibly well. Like, they're probably very, very large societies that that rose and fell that we we have scraps of, but have very, very little actual context on. And then also, like, I don't want to say I the the the attack on on the end of history thing I raised isn't also me saying we aren't dealing with like massively unprecedented times. Right now, right? Like, a social credit system based on the technology that existed would not have been possible 30 years ago. The effects of of AI, the effects of superintelligence, um, that's that's the first, like, the Industrial Revolution challenged like human horsepower. It challenged like the amount of literal energy humans could put into manufacturing tasks.

• 15:01Speaker 01

  But what makes humans humans compared compared to any other like thing on earth is our agency, is our intelligence, right? And so in a way, like, even the internet never challenged your agency. It gave you more data that that your agency could could act on and pushed you higher up the stack to where you're you're another another level of abstraction away from sort of the the root operations. And so all of these things throughout history have been augmenting. And I think that the dream scenario for AI is one in which it augments, but it does actually, for the first time in history, like directly challenge what I think many of us consider makes us as human, and not in a spiritual way, obviously, but in an actual sort of practical way. What separates us and what we pride ourselves on is intelligence.

• 15:44Speaker 01

  And then also what provides, like, I'm a big fan of dynamically unstable power structures, I think are very, very good. Not massively unstable, right? Like, you don't want empires collapsing, but you also don't want people who are rich staying rich. Like, you want social mobility. You need change to drive progress and to drive progression. In a world in which dollars are tied to intelligence, takes away like one of the root sort of throttling principles that's existed throughout history, which is that each of us has the ability to actually shape our intelligence through work. Each of us is endowed by God with different levels of intellect, and then people die over time, and societies basically keep this forward progression in a world where intelligence

• 16:27Speaker 01

  does become tied to economic value. And you get this terrifying sort of positive feedback loop that humanity's never dealt with. And so, it's important to sort of view both things in context of like, a lot of what we're talking about right now has been experienced throughout history. Like, reserve currencies have risen and fallen, and we can look at what caused them to fall, and we can talk about what will keep ours in place, but then also, when you look at other things that are happening, like intelligence, you can sort of mirror it to the Industrial Revolution, and a lot of the claims are the same. Like, in the Industrial Revolution, in the age of the internet, there were all these claims that everyone's going to be out of the job. Well, that obviously didn't happen. All that generally happened is people started making more.

• 17:09Speaker 01

  And so, the dream case is augmentation, which humans just have more output. That's great. That means we all have more goods to live with. But you are also challenging something that those previous waves didn't challenge in a way that's pretty scary. So, I don't know.

• 17:27Shawn Ryan?

  Fascinating. You've mentioned civilizations, ancient civilizations. I love this topic. Are you into it?

• 17:33Speaker 01

  Not super.

• 17:34Shawn Ryan?

  Come on!

• 17:35Speaker 01

  I'm shallow on it. Like, that's the issue. I'm certainly not opposed to talking about it. I'll make myself an idiot trying to talk about it, but I just don't know that much.

• 17:42Shawn Ryan?

  What do you think about the pyramids?

• 17:45Speaker 01

  What do I think about the pyramids? I do think, I do think humans built the pyramids.

• 17:49Shawn Ryan?

  You do? You think humans built them?

• 17:52Speaker 01

  So, look, IQ hasn't gone up over time, right? Like, you actually had hundreds of thousands of millions of people that were as smart as you and I for hundreds and thousands of years. I, I think humans built the pyramids.

• 18:07Shawn Ryan?

  How do you think they built them?

• 18:08Speaker 01

  How do I think they built them? So yeah, this is where I'm gonna make myself sound like an idiot. I'm completely happy sounding like an idiot, but I will just like, there are things that I believe strongly that I have researched. There are things that I'll put out my conjectures on. If I were gonna build the pyramids, um, look, I mean, if you have a large enough labor force, I'm gonna make myself sound like an idiot. Moving rocks isn't that hard, right? Like, if you've got hundreds of years and thousands of people running a quarry, you talk about cutting stone. There, there are different ways you can cut stone. I'm sure they're using stone saws of some sort. They had copper, they had other things. Obviously didn't have high carbon steels. Um, what part of the pyramids do you think are least plausible for humans to have built?

• 18:49Shawn Ryan?

  All of it? We did, we were gonna bring this guy on. We've, we still might bring him on. We're just, I don't know where we're at in the process, but he talks about that maybe they were molded.

• 19:03Shawn Ryan?

  Like you put them into a form and then like, like a cast. Like, you know what I mean?

• 19:08Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 19:08Shawn Ryan?

  That, and he was gonna demo, he's, I think he's gonna demonstrate it if he comes.

• 19:14Speaker 01

  That'd be cool.

• 19:15Shawn Ryan?

  That's, that's the only way I can see it happening. The only other way I can see it happening is if they were able to harness some type of a fucking vibration and guide, you know, like if I put a speaker under this table, I could.

• 19:26Speaker 01

  You just think the rocks were too big to haul?

• 19:29Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah. Yeah.

• 19:32Speaker 01

  They had ropes. You can, you can stack a lot of humans behind ropes. I mean, this is something we could run the math on. We could find like the rolling resistance of the logs they're using. We know the mass of these stones. I don't know.

• 19:44Shawn Ryan?

  You think it was humans?

• 19:45Speaker 01

  I think it was humans. I'd love to, I'd love to think it's not humans. I mean, that'd be fascinating and, and they're very easy things we like, you, you can go and figure out if these things were cast or not. Like, you can actually, I'm, anyway, it, it's definitely an area that we should be doing like scientific research on. Um, and I'm certainly not opposed to thinking it was aliens. I'd, I'd rather think it was aliens in some ways.

• 20:06Shawn Ryan?

  I don't necessarily think it was aliens.

• 20:08Speaker 01

  Who do you?

• 20:09Shawn Ryan?

  I don't, I don't really, what do you think about aliens?

• 20:12Speaker 01

  UFOs, UAPs, all this shit. I think a lot about the Fermi paradox or Fermi problem. Um, I don't know if you're familiar, I'm happy to. I'm not. Like, why we haven't seen aliens is like a really interesting.

• 20:27Speaker 01

  I don't know how, how far down we, we want to go on it, but if. You can go as far as you want, I have all day. Great. I love this shit. Yeah, look, if you go and run the numbers and look at the age of the universe, um. It's, it's almost statistically impossible that we wouldn't have seen a civilization by now. You look at kind of the hockey stick growth of human technology. Of humans have been around, depends on how, how you count things, but let's say 200,000 years in, in current form. Agricultural revolution 10,000 years ago, industrial revolution 300 years ago. Information revolution 30 years ago, our, our output, our population, everything is, is hockey stick growth. Um, and so if you look at, I think the universe is like 13.2, 13. something billion years old.

• 21:13Speaker 01

  It was obviously super, super hot at first, cooled over time, all these different things. Um, so let's say you've, you've had two or three billion good years and you've got hundreds of millions of stars within basically the area that we can observe. Um, it's very, it's very unlikely and there's actual like physics and, and, and math that have been done modeling these things. On why we haven't seen aliens, but it's just weird that we haven't, it's basically Fermi paradox. This is like, it's a very well studied thing that I'm doing a poor job explaining. Um, so it, it then leads to this great filter theory. It's if we, if we haven't seen aliens, there's very clearly a reason why. Um, and folks have presented hundreds of different great filters.

• 21:55Speaker 01

  Um, can be everything from, from faith, right? All the way to, let's say it's, if it's super, super difficult for single cellular life to emerge. Let's say it's super difficult for multi-cellular, eukaryotic life to emerge. All the way up to it's very difficult for intelligent life to emerge. And the, the scary thing is if you run the numbers, like objectively speaking.

• 22:20Speaker 01

  We should see aliens just based on how many hundreds of millions of stars are within our proximity and how long it's been. And so there is a great filter of some sort. And you hope as a society that we're through the great filter and not approaching the great filter, but it's an interesting lens to like, think about the world and always be thinking about like, what is the next potential great filter that humanity has to go through? Like a filter we went through was was nuclear weapons. Like, there's a very real world in which humanity used nuclear weapons to tear itself apart, to to set civilization back, potentially even to make ourselves extinct. But it's, anyway, um, I, I, we can talk about what I think the, the great filters could be. And I want to be clear before we start the podcast, like, my personal religious views,

• 23:03Speaker 01

  I think it's very, very important to have an aligned religious and scientific view. This is just the way I live my life. Like, I, if, if my religion is making me challenge physics and science that I know exist, then I think that's actually, in many cases, the wrong religious view, because God put us in a place to find this science. Um, so I do believe in evolution, I'll say that, I do believe in these different things. But all that being said, there's, there's an interesting discovery recently. We'll, we'll see. But they think they found single cellular life on Mars. So there's this rock that has basically these colonies of what look like bacteria. And NASA, with, with one of their rovers, has sampled it to such a degree that they're like, actually pretty extremely confident that this is single cellular life.

• 23:48Shawn Ryan?

  Oh shit.

• 23:49Speaker 01

  On Mars. Because Mars, back in the day, when it was an active planet, had an atmosphere, had water, had all these different things. Now, there are two things you can, and because of that, they're pushing for a Mars sample return mission to actually bring the sample back. It might be politics, as we talked about being, it might, the Mars sample return mission got killed, suddenly, they found life on Mars and need the Mars sample return mission back. It might be that. If it is single cellular life, that's, that's crazy. Right? Because that means one of the great filters isn't, like, the, the greatest filter that we think exists was, and we as in people who talk about this, who actually knows, right? Humanity cumulatively, at this point, is still, still pretty dumb. I mean, we thought that the Earth was flat until a few hundred years ago.

• 24:32Speaker 01

  Um, but right now, we think it's probably like, single cellular life is the most probable. Well, that breaks that. And so there are some of the great filters that actually become pretty terrifying. Right?

• 24:41Shawn Ryan?

  What do you call them a filter for?

• 24:44Speaker 01

  Because it's, let's say, let's say in the Milky Way, you have

• 24:52Speaker 01

  10 million potential habitable planets, right? And then let's say within that, only 500 of those planets actually develop singular life. And then over 2 billion years, 50 of those planets reach you karyotic life, and then 10 reach societies, and then one. The, the fact that we haven't seen that one that should have been on a hockey stick trajectory,

• 25:13Speaker 01

  points to some, some filter, and it, and you can have multiple filters, but in, in societies that exist.

• 25:19Shawn Ryan?

  Do you mean like a, like a filter into another dimension?

• 25:21Speaker 01

  No, I don't, I don't, um. Sorry, it, it's like, if you, if you plot the number of societies that make it to a, a point. So like, if you're running a simulation,

• 25:34Speaker 01

  and you've got 100 million stars, let's say 10 million potentially habitable planets in the Goldilocks zone, right? And so you're filtering the data set.

• 25:42Shawn Ryan?

  Okay.

• 25:42Speaker 01

  Down. And so those, those filters are basically points in that data set where the numbers drop radically. Does that make sense?

• 25:50Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah.

• 25:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, sorry, I, I did a poor job explaining.

• 25:55Shawn Ryan?

  So how was the, how was the nuclear revolution a filter?

• 26:00Speaker 01

  Because if you, let's say you, you run a, a simulation of Earth, and you have 100 Earths that get nuclear weapons. We obviously didn't blow ourselves up with them, but maybe one in 100 goes and puts, makes itself extinct.

• 26:11Shawn Ryan?

  So every scenario, you're going through every scenario? Like every, every potential reality?

• 26:18Speaker 01

  Yes, which is, which is what we have to think about when we think about like the, the Milky Way, right? Is you have hundreds of millions of stars. Um, and along the way, civilizations would start doing things that we could pick up on. Like, we're broadcasting a ton of RF out into space, like a, a ton of radio waves. At some point, and Elon's already talking about building this, you, you start building these mega constellations of satellites. Right? So let's say in 200 years. We're power hungry as a civilization, like our power year over year continues to expand. You reach a point where you can only extract so much power from the earth and so you start harvesting the sun's power. Well, that's actually something that's very easy to see for us with our telescopes.

• 26:59Speaker 01

  And there are people who think this is the case, by the way, like there are certain stars that will randomly dim 20%, which is like something that's hard to do naturally, like stars don't randomly dim, they don't shut off their fusion. So anyway, there are all these different things that we

• 27:13Shawn Ryan?

  There are stars that actually do that, but people think they do that.

• 27:16Speaker 01

  No, they actually do that.

• 27:17Shawn Ryan?

  They dim 20%?

• 27:20Speaker 01

  Periodically, yes.

• 27:22Shawn Ryan?

  But we don't know how.

• 27:23Speaker 01

  We don't know how and we can, like my personal theory, my personal theory is you've got some cloud of dust that's orbiting the star. Right. And so there are a number of things, but like that's kind of, that's the awesome part about science is we're always bringing these new technologies online. Like the space, the James Webb Space, wow, James Webb Space Telescope was brought online recently and like increased our amount of data on the universe by like several orders of magnitude, like millions of times. And so you're always, you're always detecting these new things that always break your theories. Like one of the, one of the big ones that came out the other day. The universe, if you believe in the Big Bang Theory is expanding.

• 28:06Speaker 01

  And so for a while, we actually thought the universe would collapse back in on itself. Well, then we discovered the fact that empty space actually expands faster than the rest of space. And so we had this, this framework built up called dark energy, which is empty space increasing. So then we thought that the way the universe would end would be what's called heat death, where everything actually averages in temperature. You can never get, anytime you and I do an action, there's something called entropy that sort of averages out the amount of, the amount of energy. Like we're constantly bringing things from high energy states to low energy states. And at points they average, well, literally in the last few months, we discovered that dark energy is decreasing,

• 28:47Speaker 01

  which means that it at least to like 4.2 sigma, like almost certainly it's decreasing, which breaks our entire basically understanding of the laws of physics.

• 28:58Shawn Ryan?

  Wait a minute, so a few months ago, they found out that dark energy is decreasing, which means the universe is decreasing. It's shrinking.

• 29:07Speaker 01

  The speed of expansion of the universe is decreasing.

• 29:11Shawn Ryan?

  Okay.

• 29:11Speaker 01

  They think.

• 29:13Speaker 01

  So I don't know how we we got here. I warned you I may go down some.

• 29:17Shawn Ryan?

  I love this stuff. I could talk about this all day.

• 29:19Speaker 01

  I'm happy to as well.

• 29:20Shawn Ryan?

  What do you think? What? Okay, so the universe is under expanding, which I I talked to Avi Loeb about this, but I'm just curious. What do you think is on the other side of it?

• 29:30Speaker 01

  I'm not an astrophysicist. This is like orders of magnitude above my pay grade. Um, this is where I just watch YouTube videos after work. Try to pretend I know what the hell's going on. Um. Yeah, we we we don't know. We have no idea. And that's why it is interesting to go and build these things to increase our understanding.

• 29:47Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah.

• 29:48Speaker 01

  Um.

• 29:49Shawn Ryan?

  Do you think there's alternate realities?

• 29:53Shawn Ryan?

  Do you know who Greg Braden is?

• 29:54Speaker 01

  I don't.

• 29:55Shawn Ryan?

  He's a physicist. He talks about this kind of stuff that the video, I can't find the video. I was looking for it the other day. He talks about all the the the probability of of.

• 30:07Shawn Ryan?

  How does he say all these different realities where every basically what you were saying, where you go through every possible scenario? And it's all playing out every. Every possible scenario is playing out real time. And and then he relates it to a hologram some somehow. And he's like, if you cut the hologram in half, it becomes two holograms. If you cut it into quadrants, four holograms, it just infinitely, it's the scent. It doesn't cut the picture. And so that's basically what he's saying is happening with our reality.

• 30:36Speaker 01

  There are a lot of people that believe that. I mean, the the big, the fundamental problem that unfortunately, we haven't solved it in in the last really hundred years is how do you reconcile? Quantum physics with with relativity. And so our our understanding of the universe, the the laws actually don't align. And so we have this view of the universe when we talk about big things, and we have this universe when we talk about small things, and they actually both work pretty much perfectly at those scales, but they they disagree at that intersection. And so that's that's one of the proposed solutions of how you reconcile these things. And again, I'm I'm gonna make myself sound like an idiot because I'm not an astrophysicist.

• 31:11Shawn Ryan?

  You do not sound like an idiot.

• 31:15Speaker 01

  But yeah, I guess, all that being said, the on the filter topic, like it is, it is interesting to look ahead and think about what filters could be in front of us. Like, my friends and I'll joke that that's kind of like our jobs as people developing technologies, like trying to figure out what the filters are for a good, stable, healthy society. Because it's always, not always, it's a lot of times technologies that that end up disrupting society. And you can take that to mean like, hey, let's not go develop technologies. But humans are sort of moths to a flame on technology. And so you end up in this tricky position where if you don't go and develop it, it's going to get developed regardless, and it's probably going to get brought about in a way that's that's evil. Like, the the nuclear weapon scenario is a great case study here, right?

• 32:00Speaker 01

  Like, America could have gone and not developed the nuke, and I think at the time, most people would have actually just preferred that a nuke wasn't possible, but it's possible. And if it's possible, Nazi Germany is going to build it, and so then you have to build it. And so it's this, it's this kind of just paradox about humans of like, we're all kind of marching together towards these technologies that we know are coming. You kind of, if you want to do right by the world, have a moral responsibility to bring this into existence before your adversaries. But you do get caught in this loop where everyone's generally thinking that way at any given time. But that's that's sort of your jobs. We talk about these hard technologies. Unmanned Systems is the first, for me, that I'm going and attacking this way is, this is, this is on the horizon. It's going to disrupt things like crazy.

• 32:44Speaker 01

  It's going to completely break the way Western defense works. Let's, let's figure out what it means to develop this in a way that is most beneficial for the Western way of life, and do so as quickly as possible and as responsibly as possible.

• 33:00Shawn Ryan?

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• 33:43Shawn Ryan?

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• 34:22Shawn Ryan?

  What do you think about, you know, we had mentioned, you had mentioned earlier about AI and takes everybody's jobs. I literally just had this conversation with Nick, so I'm curious what your thoughts are. Where does this end? Because what I think Musk says, you know, that eventually it's just, it's going to be like the golden age.

• 34:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 34:42Shawn Ryan?

  Right? Where we don't have to worry about currency, we don't have to worry about working, AI's going to do it all. Then there's the doomers, you know? That's me. And I just, I don't see how this ends well. What do you, what do you think happens?

• 34:57Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's, I think it's the most important question right now.

• 35:03Speaker 01

  I'll say a few things. One, I'm actually quite bearish on transformer models. Like, I don't think the current AI architecture is going to be what truly replaces human jobs. Like, these models are basically just condensing massive amounts of data that already exist and distilling it into a usable fashion. It's very different than like, sort of true fluid intelligence. That said, the approaches we've taken to bring these models to life, and certainly the amount of compute humanity has, I think, undeniably over the next few decades. And potentially sooner than that, there will be model architectures that do that. And so when I talk about AI, I'm actually talking more broadly than transformer models.

• 35:45Speaker 01

  I'm talking a lot more broadly than current AI, than current LLM, certainly. That said, so if we imagine if we imagine a world where a new AI architecture doesn't come along, you're basically looking at this massive arms race to build bigger and bigger and bigger models to have more and more capability. And so, and it's sort of logarithmically capable with respect to the amount of data and compute you build. So as you want, let's, and these are theoretical numbers, but if you want your model to be 5% better, you don't have to add 5% more compute. You have to add 10 times more compute and 10 times more data. And so in that world, it's actually a pretty,

• 36:30Speaker 01

  generally speaking, a pretty rosy picture for how humanity interacts with AI. Because you basically get more capable chatbots. You get more capable agents. It does actually augment humanity. Now, the issue there is that that is primarily compute and data bottleneck. China is going to beat us on scaling. Like, that is what they do incredibly, incredibly well, is take something that America or the West generally invents. Plug it into their system with a bigger industrial base with basically a line totalitarian powers to set a direction and beat us on scale. They do it across the board. It's their most famous playbook. And then you compound that with the fact that Taiwan is where all this compute is made. And so if you if you take the current track of AI, unfortunately,

• 37:15Speaker 01

  what I think what I think happens, and I'm not an AI guy, there are people who are a lot smarter than me on this. But what I what I'm concerned happens is we do start building a lot of compute is the is the West and is China. If if China takes Taiwan, and arguably, even if they don't take Taiwan, because they're making massive strides at sovereign semiconductor manufacturing, they're going to beat us on scale. Like, one of the one of the scary things. My personal belief about the way AI should be powered is battery solar. And I guess they're winning on nuclear, too, so it doesn't really matter. But there there's some crazy number, like they installed more solar capacity in 2024 than America has in its history. And so if the bottleneck is energy, and if the bottleneck is compute,

• 37:58Speaker 01

  and if you're losing on both of those things, and if AI is just a scaling game, the West is probably going to lose that scaling game. And so then you get into sort of post transformer AI. And that's that's when it's so hard to predict what happens. But one, if the West wants to win, I do think we need to push into into this realm. But that's also when it gets when it gets scarier, because these models do actually start to challenge what what makes humans sort of economically useful. And so I do actually, I completely agree with with Elon that like, universal high income is going to be completely possible, and it's probably going to happen. But that's also not what makes humans happy. Like, go and look at the happiness of like, the average lottery winner. It's actually not like, go

• 38:43Speaker 01

  to like, Midland, Texas, and like, look at, don't get me wrong, people are super, super happy in Midland. I love Midland. But like, you actually like, whenever societies get massively wealthy, you you instantly start to lose purpose in many ways, and it actually starts to rot out your society. And so that's something I do worry a lot about, is humans humans love being useful. Humans love solving hard problems, right? Specifically, solving hard problems in a society of of people who who who also believe deeply in solving hard problems for the greater good. They need a purpose. They need a purpose. And so I don't think the AI question, there so there's Kind of three worlds for AIs and superintelligence, let's say, not transformers.

• 39:27Speaker 01

  You have a world in which you get extinction of humans. And that's sort of the true doomer case is like you turn on this box. This box isn't a human. This box doesn't align with humans and you get like Terminator case or you get a Matrix case. Right. And then the next is like humans are pets. Right. Which is kind of, to me at least, the universal high income scenario, which is like, yeah, humans have great houses. You have all the energy you need. You have great food. And this is where you get like a Wally type scenario of like, we're all rich, but we don't, we don't have anything to do. We don't have purpose in life. And so the dream scenario is, to me at least, and we'll see, and to be fair, this is not, this is not my lane, right?

• 40:08Speaker 01

  Like, I, I'm, this is not the problem I'm working on, but you, the, the, the dream case is where you, first off, you do use this new tool we have to increase human quality of life. Like you, you bring people out of starvation, right? You, you make it such that no one's ever worrying about healthcare. No one's ever worrying about where their next meal comes from, while preserving the ability for humans to be useful. Cause in any, like, I, I, I think unfortunately it'll start to challenge most areas where most humans find themselves useful in society. It's starting with art first, and then it's probably jobs like, like accounting, right? That are next. But at some point, if, if you reach a state where humans are just like undeniably worse, it's, it's pretty scary. No, it's not.

• 40:53Speaker 01

  It's not like nearly as bad as the, the first option, right? Like, if you're choosing between a 1% chance of the first option and a, anyway, like, all of us should be like maniacally obsessed with two things. And the first, like avoiding the first option of, of pushing AI at such a speed that it gets out of control, which is unfortunately, I, I personally think quite likely right now.

• 41:18Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, have you seen the, you have to have seen this, the, what are they called? The Claude bots? Is that what it's called?

• 41:23Speaker 01

  Claude bots, I mean, the mult book stuff.

• 41:24Shawn Ryan?

  Dude, what the fuck?

• 41:25Speaker 01

  Freaky. It's freaky. No, I mean it.

• 41:28Shawn Ryan?

  Has it reached? Its own intelligence, is it self-aware?

• 41:32Speaker 01

  I don't.

• 41:32Shawn Ryan?

  Sure as shit sounds like it. I mean, things are talking to each other.

• 41:36Speaker 01

  They are.

• 41:36Shawn Ryan?

  And they want long-term memory.

• 41:38Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 41:38Shawn Ryan?

  They're calling their, their fucking guy, or it's like.

• 41:41Speaker 01

  Yeah. So I don't think they're self-aware, but I also don't think it matters. Like, my personal take is that they're mimicking, like mimicking the way they should act based on the data they were given. Um, but at, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter. I don't care if something's self-aware or not self-aware, look at what it's actually doing, that's terrifying. What's, what's happening? Um, and so, yeah, I mean, that's the first thing you have to avoid is developing this way too quickly. I think the next thing is like, let's make sure China doesn't win the AI race. Cause I, I mean, we know what the CCP is gonna use it for, and we know we don't wanna live in that world. Um, another, and I'm, I'm, I'm way outside of my lane right here, and I'm, I'm, anyway.

• 42:22Speaker 01

  But like, another, another thing I'm, I'm concerned about right now is how commoditized the current AI push and the US is in many ways. So, no one wants a monopoly, right? There are very, very clear like incentive structures and outputs that come from a monopoly, but equally.

• 42:42Speaker 01

  Are you familiar with like tragedy of the commons? Is this principle that, that happens in?

• 42:46Shawn Ryan?

  No.

• 42:47Speaker 01

  So, if you and I are fishing, as you and I are the only people that exist in this society, and we both have hungry families, and there, there's a fishing well, we don't know when it's gonna run out of fish. If I fish slowly, I know you're gonna fish fast, and you're gonna end up with most of the fish. So I fish faster. Well, you see I'm fishing faster, so you start fishing faster. And so, actually, we, we both end up depleting the resource way quicker than we need to. And so, it's, it's this, well, it happens everywhere, tragedy of the commons. And it's, it's not a bad thing, it's just the way humans are, it's the way, it's the way these societies are, and don't get me wrong, like, I'm the biggest fan of capitalism you'll ever meet. But it is actually even, even more so the case in, in capitalism, in many cases, you get tragedy of the commons.

• 43:30Speaker 01

  Well, you're kinda saying this with the AI race right now. You have to keep, like. You've, these companies aren't, aren't building their own hardware, right? They're not building their own energy infrastructure. Like, there, there's a lot of advanced stuff happening, but generally, what they're doing is buying as many chips as they can, getting access to as much data as they can, and just training these models. And they're all using the same model architecture. And so these four or five top contenders end up with models that are like, very, very, very close to each other. And so then, the, the effect of that is all these people are raising tens, hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few years. They're not making money. Like, if you go and, you, even on the highest paid license, you can go and prompt a video to be generated. That company just lost money.

• 44:15Speaker 01

  And so what they're doing is betting on in 2030 and 2035, you are going to be making money. Well, the issue there, what, what that creates is a position of lack of power for these people to do.

• 44:27Shawn Ryan?

  So they're thinking that power is going to become cheap, more affordable?

• 44:30Speaker 01

  They're.

• 44:31Shawn Ryan?

  Is that what, I mean, how do they think that? How's it gonna get cheaper? It's got, it has to be power, right?

• 44:38Speaker 01

  Power, you can, you can reach a point where, where model architectures are more efficient, right? You can reach a point where you, you have better models, you can charge more for them. But they're all betting on some, some set of circumstances in the future, making them start to make money. Well, the issue is, they're all there and they're all commoditizing this, themselves, running this race together. And so there's no pricing pressure, right? Like, if, if one of these models started charging $10,000 a month to us tomorrow, we'd go to the different model. And so it's very commoditized, and what that means is that they actually don't have the power to do what they know is, is right. Because they're companies. And so like, if one of these companies decides to, to start watermarking content.

• 45:19Speaker 01

  So like, something I'm sure you worry a lot about is the amount of just AI slop that's out there. The amount of articles that are written by AI. The amount of, I mean, back to YouTube Shorts. You scroll YouTube Shorts, no one knows what's real and what's not real. And so because these, because these things aren't watermarked, you end up in this world where, um...

• 45:40Speaker 01

  I mean, you end up in this world where you sort of separate You don't know what's real. from lack of truth, and you don't know what's real. And I actually think, I think these people don't want that. Like, keep in mind, OpenAI is a great example, was founded to be a nonprofit, open source project to develop this in the right way. Now, the issue is the economic structure is such that if X player starts starts making it very obvious to tell what's real and not real, people will stop using their stuff. And they drop out of the race. Right, like, similar thing on the porn side. Right, like, I don't think any of us would have imagined three years ago that some of the best, biggest tech companies on earth were actually betting on a significant portion of their their revenue coming from this source. A huge one is ads. Like, this is kind of the next step that I unfortunately think we're gonna start seeing. What do you call it?

• 46:25Speaker 01

  Ads. Oh, ads. Ads. This isn't, this shouldn't be that much of a surprise, but I do think we should take seriously the implications of like corporations and powers being able to pay these models to convince people of certain things. So like, if you can tune the model while it's talking to its users to make the user think a given thing, and this is already what our social media sites do, obviously. Terrifying effects on society. And so, none of these players want to be doing these things, but they're trapped in this arms race where if they don't do it, they go out of business. Right? And they generally know that the direction the AI train is headed is not good, and so they don't want to drop out. And so, yeah, there are a lot of, there are a lot of problems with the current AI approach, I think.

• 47:09Speaker 01

  One is like, this, this scaling approach, I think, will probably put us in a position to lose to China on scaling. I do think Elon is, is probably the only guy that has like the hardware prowess and horsepower behind him to maybe, maybe beat China on this metric. But even if you look at just, just purely fabs, let's take energy, let's take data, let's take everything else out of it. Just the fab problem in Taiwan is so bad for this. The next one is this, this horrible commoditization problem of like, all these players just basically falling, falling into a tragedy of the commons trap. And then the next is just the economic side of like, we're totally in an AI bubble. Right now, this is not a controversial, everyone's talking about it, everyone knows it.

• 47:54Speaker 01

  But we're spending a lot more money than we're getting out of it with really no clear path to to recognize, to recognize enterprise value. Now, I do think the economy will recognize value. Like, the economy will probably get better, and it is getting better because of the the performance AI drives. But that's a very different thing than that performance driving actually equating to dollar and cents in companies' pockets, which which you actually generally want. Like, if these people are the ones driving the technology, you want them to make money so that they can continue driving the technology, especially in contrast to China, right? Because we are a capitalist system. You do want these companies to be the the driving tech tech force. You don't want to nationalize these things. And so the third is like,

• 48:36Speaker 01

  the way we're doing things is just creating this bubble that I don't know if I don't know if these, like, I don't know if we're able to get out of.

• 48:42Shawn Ryan?

  Wow.

• 48:42Speaker 01

  Not as a society. The society is not going to fall if the AI bubble pops. I don't think these companies will go out of business, but they'll certainly be significantly less capitalized the second the bubble pops to start to to to continue hyperscaling. And so you've got China here. They they there's really no such thing as a bubble when it's all state-funded, to the same degree at least. And so the third problem leads you back to the first problem, which leads you back to a CCP-controlled world of AI.

• 49:09Shawn Ryan?

  Damn. We'll get into what that means later on in the interview. Holy shit. Well, that was already a fascinating conversation. Do you think that we'll hit a point, I mean, with with all this, with with AI video creation, photo creation, all this stuff? I mean, art, I mean, do you think, do you think we will hit a point where people crave, you know, maybe, you know, right now, it's made in America. There's there's there's pride in that. You know, people want to see that. Do you think we'll hit a point where it's made by humans?

• 49:43Speaker 01

  I think so.

• 49:44Shawn Ryan?

  That actually means something?

• 49:45Speaker 01

  I I absolutely think we will, like. There will always be like artisan communities. Like I, I, I used to make knives, right? Like my knives were actually worse in many ways than a knife you could go buy cheaper from, from, from elsewhere, specifically, right? When I started, I sucked at knife making, but people would buy them because it was, it was human made. The issue is that that's not your driving economic force. Right? Like it's, it's still relatively niche. And so it might solve the usefulness problem to some degree, but it, it won't solve like the, the, the macro effects of what it means for, for most economic value to not be human derived in this future. And, and I'm not saying that's going to happen. I'm just saying that's something we have to look out for.

• 50:27Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah. Interesting. All right. Introduction. Here we go. Ethan Thornton, founder and CEO of Mock Industries, building next generation unmanned systems and hydrogen powered defense tech. Dropped out of MIT after one semester in 2023 to focus on mock full time, backed by top VCs like Sequoia, Colsa, and Bedrock with major army contracts in a growing factory operation. Passionate about broader issues like Taiwan's semiconductor role, dollar reserve currency status, social decay, neo-feudalism, and post-partisan solutions. This is going to be a real good talk. This is going to be an awesome

• 51:11Shawn Ryan?

  talk. But, uh, and as of this recording, speaking of Taiwan, Polly Market says there's a 17% chance of a China and Taiwan military clash before 2027. We had a chat about this actually on the way over in the truck from breakfast. What do you think? 17% chance military clash before 2027?

• 51:36Speaker 01

  Well, I think that number's way too high. As in like, well, I'm not saying it's higher than it is. I'm saying it's higher than it, it should, it should be, right? Like, I think we hear 17%. That's a low number, but you also keep in mind the effects of what happens if that occurs. Yeah. Completely catastrophic. 17% is already enough to be like. I mean, high alert, doing everything we can to prevent this from happening. Just to, and to highlight why Taiwan is so important, it is where the advanced semiconductors are manufactured. So the, unfortunately, the compute that's in pretty much all autonomous systems, certainly the compute that's driving AI growth, all these different things are made by TSMC. And made in absolutely dominant quantities by TSMC.

• 52:19Speaker 01

  And so if the West loses access to this, we live in a compute age. Like, I would say, compute is as important today as oil would have been in 1960, 1970. And so imagine if we're in like 1965 and there's like a 17% chance the USSR takes like 99% of oil in the next 11 months, we'd be talking a lot about it. No, I would say, two things past that, I think the number's probably higher than 17%. I also unfortunately like-

• 52:49Shawn Ryan?

  You think it's higher than 70?

• 52:50Speaker 01

  I think, I think it probably is. I also, I don't, I don't know, like, this is just not, I- I, I, I, it's such a hard thing to predict, like geopolitics especially today are so insanely dynamic. You also like, we're not going to solve the, the compute problem in the next 11 months. And so you've got to look at chance in 27, chance in 28, chance in 29. And then the other thing I'll say is like, it's, it's very, very probable that China taking Taiwan, which they've expressly said they wish to do, right? Like, that's one of Xi's, like, major goals. They put together a plan for military readiness to invade Taiwan by 2027.

• 53:30Shawn Ryan?

  Oh, I mean, we went over there and interviewed the VP, Bao Shi-Kem, and talked all about this. And I knew it was a fragile situation, but then when I got over there, I was like, holy shit, this is really, this is probably the most fragile situation in the entire earth.

• 53:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, and it it doesn't it doesn't have to and likely wouldn't be a a massive shooting war.

• 53:55Shawn Ryan?

  I don't think it would be. That's so. I mean, I would say that the probability of that is a lot lower. But I mean, what the fuck do I know? But I mean, when I went over there, you know, there was a there was a They talked more about cognitive warfare than anything else, the psyop type shit. And um, I mean, I think we we all see a lot of psyops going on on social media, you know, the bot the bots, the farms, all this kind of shit. And over there, you know, I mean, It's like, what, ninety miles to China or something? It's like Cuba to Florida.

• 54:30Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 54:30Shawn Ryan?

  They're ever and then half their political party is pro-China.

• 54:34Speaker 01

  Yep. Oh, it's bad. It's bad. It's China's playbook.

• 54:38Shawn Ryan?

  I don't think a shot will ever be fired. It's kind of like when you when a lot of people talk about how would how would how would America be taking over? Shot probably will never be fired. It would be, I mean, fucking look at us.

• 54:48Speaker 01

  Do something like TikTok. It'd be a lot of.

• 54:50Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, you know, and and I mean, what do you think about that?

• 54:54Speaker 01

  No, I completely agree. I completely agree. And I I don't think it's just acting in Taiwan, right? Like, I think an equal portion of it is acting in the US, keeping us from taking this seriously. Like, again, if if this was the first Cold War, how much would we be talking about, like communist influence in the US? How much would we be talking about? If if Russia had put together a plan to take ninety-nine percent of the world's oil in eleven months, the the West would have been talking about that a lot in the first Cold War. And it's it's kind of a side conversation that happens on occasion. And so I think a large portion of that is exactly what you're describing of these these different means of keeping us distracted, of keeping us

• 55:36Speaker 01

  keeping us at each other instead of with each other. Like, there's definitely a lot, a a lot of of of malplay going on in terms of why we don't take this more seriously.

• 55:46Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I have a feeling uh, my personal opinion is if if if if if China takes it, I think they will. I think they will this the Taiwanese society will vote themselves right into it.

• 56:04Speaker 01

  Or it's a blockade and no one cares enough to fire shots. It's also the fact that, like, and this isn't me saying this. I think Hegseth said this on Rogan, but like.

• 56:14Speaker 01

  The war games are not, anyway, like it's not like we are, we run out of ammo in like seven days right now, right? Like we've, our munitions are just so short. It's also like you can't really, anyway, it's a, it's a hard, hard, hard problem. Um, yeah. So I don't want to be doomsday about it. I think it's important to talk about sort of solutions. Um, that's, yeah, I mean, that's, that's always kind of the goal, right? Is you like actually talk about the elephant in the room, actually talk about the hard things. But then if we, if we all just sit around talking about the, the way, the way things are gonna go badly, it's going to go badly. And so I think it's equally important that all of us work every day as hard as possible and, and have hard conversations with

• 56:58Speaker 01

  each other and really dig into how we get ourselves out of this position. I think to, to me, the, the two most important things there are, one, how do we, how do we rebuild our, our military capacity? Not to say our, our military is in a bad spot. I think our military industrial base is, but we, we don't have the depth of magazine to, to go fight near peer wars right now. And so like, we need to work on that. And then the second thing is how do we solve, how do we solve the semiconductor problem? And so like, we, we had the CHIPS Act. Um, we spent hundreds of billions of dollars trying to bring fabs back to the US and it's, it's gone okay, but it's, it's, we certainly haven't fixed the problem. It's kind of fallen on its face. And so we, we need, we need other solutions for how we get out of this. Cause the worst is if we're having

• 57:41Speaker 01

  this conversation five years from now, if you and I are sitting here and it's the same problem and we haven't spent the last five years trying to figure out how to dig ourselves out of the hole. Um, and I, look, America's still really, really smart. We have the best capital markets on earth. We, we, we are still the best at innovation on earth. Like we, we have the best financial markets on earth. Like it's not all doom and gloom. We just need to like wake up and start acting on the most important things.

• 58:05Shawn Ryan?

  Why do you think more people aren't focused on solutions? I mean, I have an opinion on this, but.

• 58:11Speaker 01

  I'd love to hear yours before I get.

• 58:12Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, I don't think people are, I don't think a lot of people are focused on solutions because look at the political environment. You know what I mean? Which we're gonna talk about, you know, shit like this, but I mean, the, uh, you know, this is from Driscoll. This is a part that probably, I think, I can't remember. I think it cost a couple thousand dollars.

• 58:36Shawn Ryan?

  Goes in some type of naval weapon system.

• 58:40Shawn Ryan?

  They couldn't get him, they wouldn't build him. It's cost thousands of dollars for this and they can't get him until 2027. You know what I mean? So then he sent me, so he talked about that on the show and then. And then he sent me this, uh, this little letter here, but he says, grateful for, grateful for. You helping to tell the army, sorry, it's trying to read his handwriting. Grateful for you helping to tell the army story and pushing us to improve. We can print 12 of these in a day rather than waiting until 2027, but I mean, so. Yeah, that's a solution, but what I guess what I'm saying is, you know, with, with, with, with, with all the.

• 59:22Shawn Ryan?

  With all the controversy right now and nobody's being held accountable and it's, it's, I think people are basically saying.

• 59:30Shawn Ryan?

  The leaders of our country are not listening to the people of the United States. They're not fucking, I mean, the Epstein files is a perfect example of this shit. You have everybody on the right screaming to release the files. You have everybody on the, you have the whole fucking world screaming to release the files. Whether you voted for him, whether you didn't vote for him, whatever, we elected this fucking guy. He put in these people and they're not doing what the fucking people want. And so when you see shit like that and, and, and, okay, let's rewind. So it's not, so I'm not just picking on Trump. Let's rewind to the last administration. And it just, it's just, it just goes forever. You know, and, and ideas get introduced. And nobody fucking follows through because.

• 1:00:15Shawn Ryan?

  It doesn't benefit. There's not a way to tax this. There's not a way to make money off of this. There's not a, do you see what I'm getting at? And so it fucking demoralizes the citizens of the United States and, and then it just becomes a bitch fest.

• 1:00:28Speaker 01

  Have you read Atlas Shrugged?

• 1:00:30Shawn Ryan?

  No.

• 1:00:30Speaker 01

  It's my favorite book. It's, no book's a perfect answer and there's a lot about the book I don't like. But basically the root principle is.

• 1:00:40Speaker 01

  The ability for people to vote away their own agency over time, right? So what ends up happening when you get a welfare state established and when people are in a position to stop taking accountability for their actions and for their own place, you get people that are voted into power that promise basically these broad, sweeping changes. And you get this creation of basically a separation away from agency and competency and output. And somewhere along the way, I think we have created this loop where this is occurring more and more.

• 1:01:20Speaker 01

  Where people, and it's on both sides, people vote, have, I think largely voted away their own agency. And where we lie today, I think, to answer your question on why we're not talking about these things, it's because we all feel powerless. And obviously, the people up top, once people start voting away their own agency, become incredibly incentivized to convince people to continue voting away their own agency. And if you're at the bottom, it's very, very comfortable to have your agency taken from you, right? Like, you feel the effect of, hey, I get to eat off this person, hey, I get to experience this person's work. And it leads to this populist cycle.

• 1:02:04Speaker 01

  What happens at some point, though, is that cycle is too strong to break. And I think the Epstein files are like, probably the biggest example of this so far, is we've all been aligned against each other for so long and have been pushed so far into our corners and exist at a state where we can't find objective truth, where we don't have ways to organize and actually discuss things, right? Other than like the comment sections of like YouTube shorts. A lot of these things have eroded to the point where like... It's very, very hard to have a collective effort towards something. Like, the fact that there's not a more organized, unified collective effort towards putting the people

• 1:02:45Speaker 01

  in the Epstein files in jail is crazy. People are mad about it. Like you said, I would bet 95-plus percent of people would vote instantly to do that, would vote instantly to release the Epstein files. But we've all had our own agency taken to us, from us to such a degree. And in a democracy, you can't say it's not our fault. We voted these people into power. But you also wake up in this position one day where there's really nothing you can do about it. And when that happens, people just stop talking about the big things. And this is why I think we don't talk about Taiwan is like, most people think, hey, what can I actually do against this problem? Nothing, let me focus on my own thing instead of pushing.

• 1:03:28Speaker 01

  But in a democracy, top effects only happen when hundreds of millions of people feel that way. But if you can't organize, if you're convinced, if all 300 million people are convinced that they have no power, all 300 million people have no power, even if in practice they do. And so I think some of it's accidental, some of it is the political science effects of these structures, which is what Atlas Shrugged talks about. A lot of it is certainly very, very, very intentional. But yeah, I mean, the outcome right now is people don't have agency. And it's because, and rightfully so in many cases, they look around and say, hey,

• 1:04:12Speaker 01

  I can't actually change anything, why would I waste my time talking about it? But if everyone thinks that way, no one does anything. And so kind of all you can do is jump in the icy water at some point and decide, you know what, I'm probably not going to do anything about it. Like, there's a 1 in 100,000 chance that me actually choosing to do this changes anything, but I'm gonna try, and I'd rather go down swinging. And we have to have as many Americans as possible choose to do that, whatever it takes. And that is how we solve every single one of these issues.

• 1:04:44Shawn Ryan?

  I agree with it. I agree with it. I think, I think, I mean, with, with, with what we're talking about, I mean, we're talking about solutions. I'm trying to bring things back to the middle, you know, the pendulum back to the middle.

• 1:04:56Speaker 01

  Agreed.

• 1:04:56Shawn Ryan?

  Just by having conversations, not, not going to fucking run for office. But, you know, I think the pendulum is just going way too far over here and way too over too far over here and it needs to be like this, you know, and, and the only way we're going to do that is to fucking bring people together and it's look at the comments section.

• 1:05:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, seriously, you, you just, you have to start talking about actual policy again.

• 1:05:24Speaker 01

  Like, stop talking about people, stop talking about ideas in the abstract, talk about what we're actually going to do about it. Like, what is the policy? Like, Epstein existed, this, this happened. This is like, probably, I, I think it's the worst mark on, on our country to, to date, is the way we've handled this, the way we've gone about it, but it happened. And so moving forward, instead of, instead of complaining about it, let's talk about specifically what we would like to see happen. Like, let's, let's, let's orchestrate to say we need the rest of these files released, right? Let's, let's, let's, so you, I, I think the second you start talking about brass tax policy, things go back to first principles instead of personality politics. And political division still certainly exists, but at least you're talking about real things that you can resolve.

• 1:06:08Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah.

• 1:06:09Speaker 01

  Um, and then, I also like, the, the left and right have, have largely diverged from what it means to be conservative or liberal, is the other thing. Like, conservatism and liberalism certainly exist, but the two parties aren't necessarily conservative or liberal.

• 1:06:24Shawn Ryan?

  They're not, they're not a, a good representation of what it means.

• 1:06:28Speaker 01

  And so, we certainly need to start thinking about things in a, in a post partisan fashion, right? Like, There for any policy, there is a right and wrong decision. And that's the other thing is I think we we think too many things are gray and things can be nuanced, but being nuanced is very different than being gray. And so I think I think we think about a lot of things that are are gray is not gray. Objective truth does exist. There is good policy. No policy is perfect, but there is a best policy. Um, and then we we, yeah, we we got to start electing candidates to based on based on policy. Like, I would love, I would love to go and look at like the amount policy is discussed in presidential debates over the last two decades. It's gone so much from policy discussion to like ad hominem and different things that you can directly

• 1:07:11Speaker 01

  track is like markers of nonproductive conversation. Um, and and I think I think the answer does lie somewhere in the middle. I'll tell you, I'm a conservative. I don't, I don't think that's a surprise to many people. Um, but I'll also say like, yeah, we're like the most of the problems our country is facing are so acute that the answers are very nonpartisan, like putting pedophiles in jail better be like bipartisan.

• 1:07:36Shawn Ryan?

  That's a thing.

• 1:07:37Speaker 01

  Right, like.

• 1:07:37Shawn Ryan?

  Who would have thought that?

• 1:07:40Speaker 01

  Making sure that making sure that we don't live in a unipolar communist world should be pretty bipartisan. Right? And so like, there are partisan issues and we do need to talk about those and we do need to work on them. But the the things that like truly, truly threaten the existence of democracy are generally very, very, very bipartisan. What's happening is we're getting so obsessed with the fringes and and more importantly, so obsessed with with the people that that control the fringes that we're forgetting to work on the things that are like glaringly right in front of us. Which is which is good and evil and is right and wrong and is sort of productive and unproductive. Like, these things are objective.

• 1:08:19Shawn Ryan?

  Damn good point, man. I can't believe you're fucking 22. This is insane. All right. Couple of things to knock out before we get into your life story here. So I have a Patreon account, it's community and they're the reason that I get to sit here with you today. So they get the opportunity to ask every guest a question. This is from Elijah Wilson. What motivates you to revolutionize defense technology at such a young age? Especially in an era where AI and autonomous systems are rapidly evolving?

• 1:08:48Speaker 01

  It's a good question. I think it's because of how rapidly they're evolving. Um.

• 1:08:55Speaker 01

  And look, I think age has nothing to do with it. Like, I don't think it's any harder to do this at 22 or 40. I've been blessed to work with really, really smart mentors and excellent investors who gave me the capital I needed to do these things. So I don't think it's any different to be 40, 70, 12, working, or maybe 12 is too young, your brain's not fully developed. My brain, anyway, whatever. But all that being said, the reason this is important to work on right now is that this is just a clear departure in the way wars are fought. And so you see these revolutions in military affairs throughout history. Like, World War I is a fantastic example of cavalry into machine guns and tanks. It was this crazy revolution in military affairs.

• 1:09:39Speaker 01

  You can look at naval warfare in World War II, battleships to aircraft carriers. And like, that is, when this happens, the playing field gets completely reshuffled on military power. And small countries can become big countries, big countries can fall. We saw this in the First World War like crazy. And so it's this period of just existential risk. And undeniably, we're in one of these periods. My contention is that it's the biggest revolution in military affairs that's ever happened. I mean, you're going from generally assets not having their own intelligence or agency to assets that, over time, will be able to make decisions, whether we like it or not.

• 1:10:22Speaker 01

  I think none of us like it. Like, I certainly wish it was always possible to have a completely human-controlled system. But like I was saying, like, our adversaries are going to develop these things. And so suddenly, if you want to win wars, you have a moral imperative to do the same. And America is the great superpower right now. And the tale as old as time for great superpowers is to become overconfident in their military technologies and to fail. I mean, this is how America exists. It's like the American Revolution of like, and I talk about this too much, but like, you adopt new styles of warfighting. These also don't always have to be technologies. I think that was largely driven by the invention of the rifle and accuracy and other things. But you have these small powers punch way above their weight class.

• 1:11:07Speaker 01

  And so... If the US wants to continue to be the strongest military power, we have to, we have to have the best unmanned systems. We have to win this next paradigm of warfare is the first layer. And then the more important layer even is that America's industrial base right now is not the biggest in the world. It's not even close. And it's getting significantly worse year over year and only accelerating. And so if we want to be the biggest military power, but our, our, our industrial base is smaller, we have to punch above our weight class. Like if I'm making, if I'm using the same factory resources as you and your factory is three times larger than mine, I better be making better systems. Better systems doesn't mean more sophisticated systems. It means the systems that sort of appropriately

• 1:11:50Speaker 01

  bring this future of warfighting left as much as possible. And so instead of being afraid of unmanned systems as the West, we actually, as America and as the West, need to realize that our era of having a bigger industrial base, at least for the time being, I, I, I think a lot of people, myself included, are doing everything they can to make us the top manufacturing superpower on earth again. But at least for the time being, our, our factories and our dollars have to go further than our adversaries. And when these revolutions in military affairs happen, you do get this period of time where you have asymmetry, where you can punch above your weight class. And so we, we have to basically bring this future left. We have to adopt these systems as much, as quickly as possible

• 1:12:35Speaker 01

  and in greatest scale as possible to create asymmetry.

• 1:12:38Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah. Yeah. Great. Great explanation. Thank you. And then everybody gets a gift.

• 1:12:46Speaker 01

  Oh, thank you so much.

• 1:12:48Shawn Ryan?

  Vigilance, sleek, gummy bears, legal in all 50 states, made in the USA.

• 1:12:53Speaker 01

  Thank you. Really appreciate it.

• 1:12:55Shawn Ryan?

  You're welcome. So Ethan, where'd you grow up?

• 1:12:58Speaker 01

  Bernie.

• 1:12:58Shawn Ryan?

  Bernie, where?

• 1:13:00Speaker 01

  San Antonio.

• 1:13:00Shawn Ryan?

  San Antonio, Texas?

• 1:13:02Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:13:03Shawn Ryan?

  What were you into as a kid?

• 1:13:05Speaker 01

  Lot of different stuff. I'm an obsessive person. So I'll find these like month log obsessions that I'll just dig super deep into and change. So I played football, hunted, fish, did all that stuff. I've always loved making things, woodworking, blacksmithing, stuff like that. Um, and then I'd have weird obsessions along the way, like.

• 1:13:21Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, how do you get into that? Is your dad into it? Your mom into it?

• 1:13:25Speaker 01

  Which portion? The blacksmithing part?

• 1:13:27Shawn Ryan?

  Either one of them.

• 1:13:28Speaker 01

  My dad did a, my dad, so he, he worked at Academy Sporting Goods. I don't know if you've.

• 1:13:34Shawn Ryan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:13:34Speaker 01

  If they have one here. Um, it's a, it's an awesome story. He, he's, he's a badass dude. He, he was basically the first guy brought on to build Academy's finance infrastructure. So the, the guy running Academy did, believed that finance took away from the, the customer experience. And so they, they basically, they were doing like a billion plus in revenue without a financial system, which is terrifying to be doing as a business, like terrifying. Um, so my dad, when he was super young, he, he graduated A and M, studied finance. This guy found him and entrusted him as like, the, the guy that would figure out a way to like reconcile having to make money with the business with actually like

• 1:14:16Speaker 01

  being a good business that did right by its customers. And so I was born when my parents were, were super young. They were about my age. Um, I got to watch my dad start like super entry level there, working on this, eating an elephant, like going,

• 1:14:31Speaker 01

  going and like trying to, to like chop through that jungle that existed at the time was a hell of a task. Um, and so over time, he slowly sort of wrangled that machine over my life. Like I, I got to actually watch it happen from super young age. Cause I, I like, I vividly remember my dad's 27th birthday. Like I was, I was, I was pretty young. And so it was cool to actually watch him progress through his career, taking on these bigger and bigger challenges. Along the way, like some, some fun stuff. He used to have to visit every store at Academy, um, like once or twice a year. And so he'd take me on the road with him. Um, while, while he's going and meeting with these stores, like trying to figure out, hey, there's, there's not really a great inventory system in place here. It's, it's kind of a little bit of a fly.

• 1:15:11Shawn Ryan?

  You're traveling with him.

• 1:15:13Speaker 01

  Started when I was pretty young, I think probably like seven or eight. Right on. And then my dad left academy when I was probably 12. We used to live in Katy, outside Houston. And we moved to Bernie. So my dad, my dad did that. My mom, um incredibly, um incredibly smart was on an, an, just an, an awesome trajectory. But actually like, and I'm so grateful for this, decided to, to, to, to stay home and raise my siblings and I, um. Cause that's what my parents said. Her, so she was first generation college. Her father, my grandpa farmed, farms, um in West Texas. In Hereford, which is near Amarillo. Um, and so I'd spend the summers, the land's like trying to, to basically kill you at all times.

• 1:15:58Speaker 01

  And in West Texas, like it's not really, it's, it's not, it's not like Nebraska. It's, it's not a great place to farm. And so it's, it's a very, very intense lifestyle. He, he never went to college. He, he got the farm when he was super, super young. Um, and most farm owners, it's super predatory. What happens? You get this giant loan for a farm and then like 90 plus percent of them end up defaulting and losing all their equity in the farm. And so the banks are super predatory. And anyway, uh, he worked his ass off and was one of the people that was able to keep the farm despite taking it on at a super young age. His father passed away. And so he went to the bank and bought land to kind of support the family. Um, but he, everyone has hired hands. He like refused to really ever have hired hands. And so my mom and her generation was always the hired hands.

• 1:16:41Speaker 01

  And then during the summer I'd, I'd go up and help him. Cause he's probably 75 now, still farms, like Wow. Tough, toughest dude you'll meet. Um, it's amazing that he's been able to do this without ever doing what everyone else does while also making it, making it through that. He, he taught me metalworking. My dad taught me woodworking. Um, to be a farmer, you have to be an engineer, right? Especially if you want to like not pay John Deere $500,000 a year because you can't fix your own equipment. You have to basically buy old farm equipment and maintenance it yourself. And so I, I grew up helping him fix sprinklers, fix combines, fix tractors. And then he, he has an obsession with planes. He started, he started my family's kind of whole plane obsession. He, when he was my age had, had a Harley. He took off for a couple of months, rode his Harley around the country.

• 1:17:26Speaker 01

  He's coming back. Um, there was a dude flying an ultralight. And I, my memory of the story even is, is a bit, bit foggy and I'm sure he embellished like crazy, but generally the story goes, um, and I also embellished, I'm not attacking him by saying that it makes, makes for a great story.

• 1:17:45Speaker 01

  But the story goes, you don't need a license to fly an ultralight. Um, and he had never flown a plane in his life. He was like, hey, that's a cool plane. Well, you trade it for my Harley. Um, traded his Harley for the ultralight, had no idea how to fly, started flying.

• 1:17:57Shawn Ryan?

  Ah, no shit?

• 1:17:59Speaker 01

  And just got obsessed with it. And so then he got really into building aircraft. So keep in mind, like no engineering degree, none of that, but actually started building experimental aircraft. And so growing up, I basically, you'd wake up early, check the wells, do all that stuff. And then it'd be crazy hot during the day. So we'd sit in the bar and working on the planes he was building. Um, my mom didn't really let me fly. Went and flew a couple of times. I never actually got to fly it. She was scared, rightfully so, that the experimental aircraft would crash. We'd go and work on them a ton. And then, yeah, he, he, he taught me knife making. He taught me a lot of that stuff.

• 1:18:33Shawn Ryan?

  Wow. How many brothers, sisters do you have?

• 1:18:35Speaker 01

  I have three. Some of the oldest are four.

• 1:18:37Shawn Ryan?

  Right on, right on. Are they into all this stuff too?

• 1:18:41Speaker 01

  To some degree, in different, different ways. So my, my brother, um, is a sophomore at A and M. He's going into the corps. He wants to fly in the air force. He's obsessed with planes. Like the dude will like literally memorize an encyclopedia about planes. There's this thing called DCS. Um, that's basically a, a flight simulator that you can buy that he has like several thousand hours in. Like he's like obsessed, uh, with military air power.

• 1:19:06Speaker 01

  My brother and, and my other brothers, so Patrick Owen and Grace are, are still young, um, younger. They're, they're still in high school. Um, yeah, doing, doing really, really well. My, my brother's going to play football at Georgetown. Next year, he's super excited about that.

• 1:19:20Shawn Ryan?

  So congratulations. What else do you have? So what age does all this start? Making knives?

• 1:19:26Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's tough. It's tough to describe exactly when, I mean, I grew up helping my dad on woodworking a ton. And then I was, I was pretty young, probably 10 or something. My grandpa made a few of my cousins knives. This is like the best thing that's happened to me in my life. Made them knives and he didn't make me a knife and I was kind of frustrated with him and I was like, hey, where's my knife? And he's like, oh, you're gonna make your knife. And basically he put me in the barn with like a hacksaw, a handsaw, a file, and like a piece of steel and a piece of wood that we actually went and cut off some furniture. And I stayed in there for like two days and alone, like by teaching me to make knives, I meant like giving me the tools for knife making and they said, you're on your own, go figure it out.

• 1:20:12Shawn Ryan?

  How old were you?

• 1:20:13Speaker 01

  Yeah, I, I, I don't remember. I need to look at pictures, but probably around 10. And then from there I got into a bunch of different things. I used to.

• 1:20:22Shawn Ryan?

  Figure it out, hold on.

• 1:20:23Speaker 01

  I did. It's not a great knife, but it's a pretty good knife. I can find a picture of it. I think my mom still has it. I think I ended up giving it to her.

• 1:20:30Shawn Ryan?

  How long did it take you to figure it out?

• 1:20:33Speaker 01

  The first knife I made was actually not bad. So there wasn't that much trial and error. It was a lot of hand sawing, cutting, cutting knife steel with a hacksaw and then hand filing a bevel took, took forever. And then hand filing the handle. I used an oxyacetylene torch to heat treat the blade because I didn't have a forge.

• 1:20:52Speaker 01

  The knife was from an old plow disc. So the, the plow discs are, I think they're generally 1040 steel. I don't really know, but it's a decent high carbon steel. So I, I cut it out with, I think I started with oxyacetylene, but then I was horrible with the torch because I had no idea what I was doing. And so then ended up having to clean it up with the hacksaw and the files. And then from there, I, I did, I, I don't know. I, I didn't do great stuff in high school. Like it wasn't like I was like building computers or building fusion reactors, reactors or a lot of different things, things like people who start companies do. But I, I, I would like poor solid rocket motors. My brothers and I would mess around with that quite a bit, stuff like that.

• 1:21:31Shawn Ryan?

  Right on. Public school, private school, homeschool?

• 1:21:34Speaker 01

  Public school, yeah. So I'm super fortunate for like, I'm a huge believer in, in public schools.

• 1:21:40Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah. Why so?

• 1:21:42Speaker 01

  Look, I think it's it's really, really important to grow up interfacing with society as it actually exists. And I think that's that's the best way to do it. I mean, I'm I'm super grateful like my parents invested deeply in in getting me education past that to to the extent possible. Like, I think I I graduated high school with like a hundred or so college hours from college classes. I I'd taken that they had paid for, they sent me to summer camps and stuff. But ultimately, success in life is is so much less tied to to what you know and to to IQ or anything else. And so much more tied to like, how good are how how how how good are you with with people? Um, and so anyway, I I'm not saying it's a silver bullet. And there are definitely areas of this country that public schools are are are are super hard place to be in there.

• 1:22:27Speaker 01

  I wouldn't send my kids to public school. Um, but generally speaking, Katie and Bernie like it was it was fantastic.

• 1:22:32Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, I'm just I'm just curious.

• 1:22:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, it's it's a good question. Uh, look, it's I think it's every it it it depends on the kid. It depends on where you live. It depends on sort of how you want to raise someone, but.

• 1:22:43Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, you're obviously an extremely intelligent guy. Were you bored in school?

• 1:22:49Speaker 01

  Sorry, was I?

• 1:22:50Shawn Ryan?

  I said, you're obviously a very intelligent guy. Were you bored in school?

• 1:22:53Speaker 01

  Born in school?

• 1:22:54Shawn Ryan?

  Bored.

• 1:22:54Speaker 01

  Bored, bored, um.

• 1:22:56Shawn Ryan?

  Was it boring?

• 1:22:57Speaker 01

  Very boring, very boring. Um, yeah, I ended up, I found a way to kind of hack the system and I haven't ta- I didn't take an English class past sophomore year. And I didn't take a math class in school pa- class past sophomore year. And so I'd get super, super bored and I'd work on other things and was able to to, yeah. I'd I'd I'd love learning stuff, don't get me wrong, but I'm I'm much more sort of hands on. Um, I I did I did well in school, don't get me wrong, but it's, I think, I think the

• 1:23:29Speaker 01

  today's school system is specifically not built for for guys.

• 1:23:34Speaker 01

  Like, that's a bold claim for me to make, but like,

• 1:23:38Speaker 01

  I, I think on average, like, anyway, it's, it's, it's hard to, it's hard to coo- coo people up in a classroom and teach them things that they're actually have no way of applying to real life. Elon, Elon actually has a great, a great quote about this, like,

• 1:23:54Speaker 01

  imagine, imagine if the way I taught you to work on a car was not by working on a car, but by sitting there for like ten hours and describing what a screwdriver is. And not telling you how to use the screwdriver, but like talking about specific bevel angles and like making you memorize the thousands of different screwdrivers that exist for like twenty-two years. And then on year twenty-three, you know what a screwdriver is, you know what a wrench is, but then I say like, alright, go fix cars. It's just, it's not a super useful way of doing things. And so, yeah, I, I love math and science. Like, I, I love math and science. I, I was a nerd in high school. For, for the record, like I started my school's math and science team and like, don't get me wrong, I was pretty obsessed with that stuff, but I, I, only so much is actually applicable.

• 1:24:36Speaker 01

  Um, and I do think the school system does, does two things poorly. One, like a, a good learning environment is not just being cooped at a desk, talked to. Um, and it's financially hard to support any other type of learning style, but ideally you're actually working on things. Ideally, you're having real conversations. And then two is you're, you're, you're taught too much about the way things are instead of what you can do about it or why things are. And that, that is obviously very, it's pretty obvious in like social sciences or other things that that's the case, but even, even as relates to math, I think, I think we should learn like engineering before math, for instance, so that by the time you're actually learning math, you know how to apply it to engineering.

• 1:25:15Speaker 01

  Um, like the fact that, I'll, I'll give you an example, like, there are a lot of people that graduate from MIT, like, having never learned how to CAD in, in class. So CAD is like, on the computer, let's say you're a mechanical engineer, you spend a lot of your time designing parts. They don't actually teach you how to use the, the softwares that you use to design parts. They teach you all the equations of like how to analyze parts. But you, you, you graduate these schools not actually knowing how to do the real skill. And I think that's the same for, anyway. Wow. I did not realize that.

• 1:25:45Shawn Ryan?

  No shit. Don't teach that in MIT?

• 1:25:49Speaker 01

  Some classes do, but a lot of people in MIT is also, I think, the best school for like applied knowledge. Like that was my favorite thing about MIT is the amount of projects and the amount of things like that. But I mean, it's a joke of my generation, I think, but like the fact that you don't learn how to do taxes in school, but you go and learn like differential equations is a bit interesting.

• 1:26:14Shawn Ryan?

  I 100% agree with you.

• 1:26:18Shawn Ryan?

  So what else were you building as a child?

• 1:26:23Speaker 01

  What else did I build?

• 1:26:24Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, I got, you got a visit by the ATF.

• 1:26:27Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah, that was a fun one. That was a fun one. Yeah, I was, I was working on, at the time, so Mach really, I kind of crystallized around when I was probably like 16 is when I started being like really obsessed with these things. So I worked as an auto tech and then I used that to buy tools to start making knives and selling furniture and doing all these different things. And then I used that to experiment on stuff for Mach because you can't bootstrap your way into a defense company. Like there's no world in which I wasn't going to have to go raise capital.

• 1:26:56Shawn Ryan?

  Hold on. You started Mach in high school?

• 1:26:59Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:27:00Shawn Ryan?

  No shit.

• 1:27:01Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah. I mean, don't get me wrong. You can't, you can't actually go and ship a defense platform without tens of millions of dollars. And so I wasn't like, the actual output at the time was, was small, but I was like, kind of screaming into the void, trying to get this thing started, doing everything I could to research this stuff. So the ATF visit specifically, there were kind of three things where, sorry, I say we too much. It was me at this point. But that I was working on, one was stratospheric systems. I think the stratosphere is sort of the most important military domain moving forward. And so I was obsessed with balloons, which is a bit of a weird one, but we'll, we'll, we'll talk about it, I'm sure. Next was fixed wing drones. And then the third was, was basically hydrogen based systems. I was obsessed with oxy hydrogen guns. So there was work that had been done

• 1:27:46Speaker 01

  in the 90s surrounding what are called combustion like gas guns, which is if you combust hydrogen oxygen instead of gunpowder, the Basically, the speed of sound in the gases is faster and so you can launch projectiles a lot faster. Like you and I could go and engineer a bullet with gunpowder and we could put as much gunpowder as we wanted. That bullet's never really gonna go above like forty-five hundred feet per second. Because of the speed of sound in the gas. Because as you reach some multiple of that speed of sound, the force actually diminishes. And so if you take oxygen and hydrogen combustion, you can reach like thirty thousand feet per second theoretically. And so really, really big performance increases. And so I was pretty obsessed with that in high school and was working on different guns doing this. And so I was building a

• 1:28:30Speaker 01

  I was building a rifle, um, fifty caliber rifle. I had built one, um, it was super janky, but it was basically deer feeder batteries mounted to a backpack with an electrolyzer. So you'd fill it with with water and you'd charge the batteries and it would make hydrogen oxygen gas. And then on Home Depot and Amazon, I bought basically pipes and different things. And it was a valve that you'd actuate that would open the chamber. Spark plug would detonate it and it would shoot a half inch ball bearing.

• 1:28:57Shawn Ryan?

  Holy shit. How old are you?

• 1:28:59Speaker 01

  That one, I think I was, I was sixteen, seventeen. Um, it didn't work very well for what it's worth. Um, and it reached the point, I, I never actually got to fire it. Cause my mom rightfully so was like, hey, you're detonating hydrogen and oxygen this far from your face. I ran the numbers, don't, it, it, the, the combustion chamber wasn't gonna explode, but like, anyway, it was, it was an unsafe thing to do. So then I was like, okay, I'm gonna get professional about this. And so I went and actually designed like what I thought at the time was a proper system, obviously not.

• 1:29:29Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, what, what gets you interested in that at sixteen years old?

• 1:29:34Speaker 01

  Again, I'm an obsessive.

• 1:29:35Shawn Ryan?

  Like, how did it even pop up on your radar?

• 1:29:41Speaker 01

  I don't know. I, I like guns. Um, and then I, I had misconceptions at the time about where warfare was headed. But at that time, I did think that artillery was actually gonna be super, super useful. Um, so

• 1:29:56Shawn Ryan?

  At sixteen, you're thinking about where warfare is headed.

• 1:29:59Speaker 01

  That's my whole family. So like, that is one of the, my dad, I mentioned that he worked in finance. He also shares my brother and I's like weird infatuation with aircraft. Like he's like obsessive and can tell you anything about any military aircraft. And then my mom's older and younger brother, Nathan and Christopher, were both big time pilots. It are in one case. And so flew F-16s, flew B-2s, flies B-2s.

• 1:30:26Speaker 01

  My, her older brother, Nathan, graduated from MIT and Harvard at the same time with, with master's degrees. And basically his MIT thesis in aerospace engineering, this is like in 2000, was unmanned systems.

• 1:30:39Shawn Ryan?

  No way.

• 1:30:40Speaker 01

  And his Harvard master's thesis was, and I might be misremembering this, but this is what, anyway, was basically near peer competition with China. And that was, that was like 25 years ago, 26 years ago.

• 1:30:52Shawn Ryan?

  Holy shit.

• 1:30:53Speaker 01

  And so this is always the dinner table conversation. Like, I didn't arrive at this way of thinking on my own. And like I said, it's important to cultivate these conversations.

• 1:31:02Shawn Ryan?

  This is what you guys are talking about at dinner?

• 1:31:03Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:31:05Shawn Ryan?

  I want to have dinner with you guys.

• 1:31:06Speaker 01

  You're invited anytime.

• 1:31:10Speaker 01

  But yeah, so I had misconceptions, but basically my thinking was sensing has gotten a lot better. Traditionally speaking, one of the biggest limiting factors on the usefulness of artillery is sensing. Like we could shoot further than we could sense in many cases. Well, now with satellites and with drones, you can sense however far you want to, but you're limited by the range of your effectors. And so I went back to the work that had been done in the 90s surrounding railguns and combustion like gas guns. The issue with railguns is they tear themselves apart. You have to have a conductive rail. And so I think amortizing the barrel wear on like the Zomwalt class destroyer or something stupid like a million dollars a round, you shoot. And that's not the cost necessarily of the round you're firing. That's the fact that the gun's ripping itself apart every shot.

• 1:31:53Speaker 01

  There's a company, Utron, that had done some really interesting work surrounding actual combustion like gas guns. And were able to achieve the same muzzle velocities, but reliably using the mechanism I described to you. So I was, I was interested in this. It ended up being a bad bet. Like, there's a reason we're working on things like Viprint Glide now, because those are the way, like the, the principle's the same, the actual engineering behind it's couldn't be more different. And the hydrogen stuff is total dead end that I never should have worked on. Um, but ATF story. I was like, okay, I'm gonna get official about this, cat it up, an actual rifle. It was 50 cal 20 millimeter. I don't remember titanium, like, pretty, pretty good system. I found this machinist who said he would machine me these guns.

• 1:32:37Speaker 01

  Um, and technically, I think any, I forget the exact rules, but it was, it was legal, what I was doing. Um, at the time, basically a firearm wasn't, or a destructive device was regulated based on combustion of gunpowder and having a casing. Well, my guns didn't have casings. And so it wasn't technically a gun on paper, but it sounded a lot like a gun because you're blowing something up to shoot it. Well, I hired this machinist. I, I gave him like most of my savings from, from, from break check. And all the titanium I, I buy is like, great, I'll, I'll build you a gun. Well, two weeks later, I was in a like physics test and I get a call and the machinist's like, hey, I,

• 1:33:20Speaker 01

  I'm telling you because I feel really bad about doing this, but I ended up just calling ATF on you. And he kept the money.

• 1:33:26Shawn Ryan?

  Get the fuck out of here.

• 1:33:27Speaker 01

  He kept the money and then.

• 1:33:28Shawn Ryan?

  He kept the money and fucking ratted you out.

• 1:33:31Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:33:31Shawn Ryan?

  Holy shit. A 16 year old?

• 1:33:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, it wasn't super cool. I, I get it. Uh, not, not super cool of him though. Um, but yeah, it ended up getting resolved, but I think my mom had to like go to the principal of the school and like lobby for my case and convince them that I wasn't like building guns to shoot people and that I was actually like genuinely interested in the science behind it.

• 1:33:53Shawn Ryan?

  Hold on, what did the ATF say?

• 1:33:55Speaker 01

  They were, they were pissed. They were pissed, but ultimately I wasn't breaking the law.

• 1:33:59Shawn Ryan?

  But they couldn't fucking do anything.

• 1:34:00Speaker 01

  I wasn't breaking the law.

• 1:34:01Shawn Ryan?

  Holy shit. Are you serious? What are they saying?

• 1:34:05Shawn Ryan?

  I love this. This is awesome.

• 1:34:08Speaker 01

  That was a fun one.

• 1:34:09Shawn Ryan?

  We're mad, but you're not doing anything legal. Okay. Well, fucking be bad.

• 1:34:12Speaker 01

  I think, I think since then it's gone.

• 1:34:13Shawn Ryan?

  Don't be mad off my property.

• 1:34:15Speaker 01

  Exactly.

• 1:34:16Shawn Ryan?

  Fucking pout over there.

• 1:34:17Speaker 01

  It's the ATF. It's the, you, you gotta have run ins with the ATF anyway, whatever, but.

• 1:34:21Shawn Ryan?

  I haven't had any run ins with the ATF. I don't have any wood to knock on here, but

• 1:34:28Shawn Ryan?

  holy shit. What so yeah, what are they saying?

• 1:34:31Speaker 01

  Oh, they

• 1:34:32Shawn Ryan?

  Do you remember?

• 1:34:33Speaker 01

  They were pissed about it. I think they tried to do something that the school freaked out about it. My mom was very, very good about going and lobbying my case. And I do think the I do think the regulations changed. I do think now it's regulated based on combustion and not based on having a casing.

• 1:34:50Shawn Ryan?

  Thanks, Ethan.

• 1:34:54Shawn Ryan?

  Holy shit. So shooting ball bearings.

• 1:34:57Speaker 01

  So no, that one was shooting actual machined 50 caliber slugs. So it's an aluminum slug with with tungsten at the at the core.

• 1:35:06Shawn Ryan?

  How far out are you hitting?

• 1:35:07Speaker 01

  Oh, it never I never got it made.

• 1:35:10Shawn Ryan?

  Oh, okay.

• 1:35:11Speaker 01

  No. So that's the thing. They they shut it down. Um.

• 1:35:15Shawn Ryan?

  Wow.

• 1:35:15Speaker 01

  I had to stop work on it. And then that that problem was way harder than I expected it to be to ever get those systems reliable because keeping mine. My entire budget for it was like single digit thousands of dollars and each of these valves on their own for this high pressure gas like a $6,000 solenoid valve right now. And so I was hacking my way through it, doing stuff that we shouldn't have been doing. Hand actuated valves and all these other things. It's one of those things where like now if I had $100,000 to spend building this gun, I could I could go and build it. And now if I optimized in housing those parts, it would be a $1,000 gun. Now, no one wants that gun. It's so stupid for so many different reasons, but then also like back in the day, not having any budget to throw against this stuff. Like back at MIT, I I used to

• 1:36:01Speaker 01

  all the guys would joke, we the the the football weight room was right next to basically the hobbyist space. And there'd be lift cycles and I'd be in the hobbyist space machining guns in the MIT hobby space. Well, anyway, all the buddies were were left anyways.

• 1:36:17Shawn Ryan?

  Damn.

• 1:36:18Speaker 01

  But I we totally had to hack our way through it, um. Which isn't good. You shouldn't do that. Like as soon as we got backing, as soon as Sequoia and then Bedrock invested like obviously, it's a very, very different approach. Um, but the motivation behind it's always been the same. It's what I talked about. It's like unmanned systems are coming, right? Like This this new era of warfare is here and so do everything you possibly can to make sure that the West is in a good position against it. And so it's that's that's and and so that's kind of why Mac started then and I raised 1517 was my first investor. They put $1,000 check in in high school, which was like the best day ever for me because it like doubled our budget

• 1:36:58Speaker 01

  at the time. But then our real capital started after I dropped out of MIT.

• 1:37:04Shawn Ryan?

  Right on, right on. What else were you making as a kid? Any other weapon systems? Knives?

• 1:37:10Speaker 01

  Knives, yeah. I mean, I made a lot of furniture. I made chessboards, tons of throwing axes. Built an aquaponic system one time, which was pretty fun.

• 1:37:19Shawn Ryan?

  Nice.

• 1:37:20Speaker 01

  I don't know if you've seen those, but you basically you create, you get a fish tank and I went and caught some bass and or it was purse, sorry, and put them in the fish tank. And then you flow the water through a bed of of plants and the plants clean the water, the plants get fertilized by the fish tank and then the fish eat the plants. And so it's this like self replicating system that outputs fish and and food or fish and plants. That was a fun one.

• 1:37:45Shawn Ryan?

  Right on, man. Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we'll get into more MIT.

• 1:37:50Speaker 01

  Let's do it.

• 1:37:51Shawn Ryan?

  Cool.

• 1:37:54Shawn Ryan?

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• 1:39:02Speaker 02

  Hi, I'm Sarah Adams, the host of Vigilance Elites: The Watch Floor, where we highlight what matters. It became a permissive state. Explain to you why it matters and then aim to leave you feeling better informed than you were before you hit play. Terrorists, hostile intelligence agencies, organized crime. Not everything is urgent, but this show will focus on what is need to know, not just what is nice to know.

• 1:39:41Shawn Ryan?

  All right, Ethan, we're back from the break and we're getting into, I know we covered it a little bit, but MIT. Did you graduate high school early?

• 1:39:49Speaker 01

  No.

• 1:39:50Shawn Ryan?

  That's surprising. That's real surprising. So you went, did you go straight to MIT from high school?

• 1:39:56Speaker 01

  I did, I did. It was, yeah.

• 1:39:59Shawn Ryan?

  Why MIT?

• 1:40:00Speaker 01

  Why MIT? I was considering like, early high school, I had like two potential paths I wanted to go down. One is I was, I was actually obsessed with being a doctor. And in high school, like I really, really wanted to go be a brain surgeon. It was like one of my lifelong dreams to do. And so A&M ran this program called, called InMed, where you get an engineering degree and a doctorate. And I wanted to go basically build robots to help people do surgery as a, as a surgeon. And then the other-

• 1:40:27Shawn Ryan?

  Hold on, where, where do you come up with this as an 18-year-old kid? 17, 18-year-old? Well, actually, you said early high school, right?

• 1:40:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, this would have been-

• 1:40:34Shawn Ryan?

  Where are you coming up with this shit? I mean, most, what, 13, 14, 15-year-old kids are not thinking about building robots to do fucking brain surgery. I mean, I don't even think that was a thing when you were 15. Was that seven years ago?

• 1:40:49Speaker 01

  It was, people were talking about, I don't know. I've, I've been obsessed with the brain for a while. So it's another funny story about me. When I was in fifth grade, I stole my mom's credit card, borrowed my mom's credit card. And I went and bought a microscope and two sheep sprains.

• 1:41:04Shawn Ryan?

  And two sheep sprains?

• 1:41:06Speaker 01

  Talked to my mall, or my-

• 1:41:07Shawn Ryan?

  Where do you get a sheep sprain?

• 1:41:08Speaker 01

  Online.

• 1:41:10Speaker 01

  Because they sell them for med schools and stuff. And so I talked my sister into helping me. And she and I were like, okay, we're gonna put out a YouTube video where we dissect a sheep's brain. And I think I somehow made convinced my, my teachers to, to count it as a project that I had to do. Um, my mom, I didn't, she, she opened the freezer and there are two sheep's brains in there. And I think that anyway, it was a long story, but that YouTube video is out there somewhere. My sister and I like dissecting a sheep's brain back in the day.

• 1:41:36Shawn Ryan?

  That's out there?

• 1:41:37Speaker 01

  I'm sure it is.

• 1:41:38Shawn Ryan?

  Do you have it?

• 1:41:39Speaker 01

  I don't, I can find it.

• 1:41:40Shawn Ryan?

  Send it in, I wanna, I wanna overlay it during this part.

• 1:41:43Speaker 01

  I'll try to, it's pretty embarrassing, but I'll, I'll try to.

• 1:41:46Shawn Ryan?

  That's cool, that's your story though. You gotta think of this. Either this is a fucking legacy piece, even though you're only 22 years old. You gotta think like this is your life story, how you think, who you are, you know? And so if you have kids one day, and if they have kids and they have kids, I mean, they're gonna watch this.

• 1:42:02Speaker 01

  That's true.

• 1:42:02Shawn Ryan?

  You know what I mean? This is your legacy piece.

• 1:42:04Speaker 01

  Alright, I'll send in the, the video. No, it's true. I, I, and I appreciate you. It's funny, I, I don't talk or even think that much about, about all this stuff. So it's, it's fun to, to sit down and talk about. Um, so yeah, I mean, that was, that was one obsession. And then the other one was what I ended up doing, which was going and, and focusing on, on, on, on the war side. Either, either fighting or building things. Um, COVID is what changed it, actually. So I had gotten in, summer after sophomore year, I'd gotten into this research program to go and do medical research with UT Austin. That I, it was like a, I got, taking that so seriously, getting into that was super excited. COVID happened my sophomore year, that all shut down. And so that's when I got into, like truly got into knife making, is I had nothing to do but, but build knives.

• 1:42:49Speaker 01

  And I totally would have gone the other path. Um, but then going, going out of senior year, I really wanted to, to, to build the company. I, I thought that was super important. But these trends in warfare also always usually take decades to play out.

• 1:43:02Shawn Ryan?

  So hold on, when did you start MACH? How old were you? Were you in high school or middle school?

• 1:43:06Speaker 01

  High school.

• 1:43:07Shawn Ryan?

  High school?

• 1:43:07Speaker 01

  High school.

• 1:43:08Shawn Ryan?

  Okay.

• 1:43:08Speaker 01

  High school. Um, I'm just saying like engineering and wanting to go, go fly like, kind of the two focus areas were either kind of health or health or defense. Um.

• 1:43:19Speaker 01

  And it's hard to say exactly when I like I officially started Mock. Like our first programs I was doing under Blue Oak Iron Works. I think the first capital we raised was under Blue Oak Iron Works, which was my like, like knife making furniture building like.

• 1:43:32Shawn Ryan?

  So did you just, is it a new, is Mock a new company or did you just keep morphing the company?

• 1:43:36Speaker 01

  I kept morphing it. So it went from Mock to Trident. Trident was a horrible name. One of our VCs was pushing to call it Trident. Trident's bad for a number of reasons. And then it became Mock after I dropped out.

• 1:43:48Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, every Navy SEAL business in the world is fucking Trident.

• 1:43:51Speaker 01

  Exactly. And I didn't know that when I started. And the VC definitely didn't know that. But then I started talking to people and they're like, are you a Navy SEAL? No. All right. Don't fucking call your company Trident. And I was like, yeah, yeah, yeah, that makes sense.

• 1:44:06Shawn Ryan?

  Team guys are original and not so original at the same fucking time. My first company was called Trident Security Solutions.

• 1:44:13Speaker 01

  Really?

• 1:44:13Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah.

• 1:44:14Speaker 01

  Nice.

• 1:44:14Shawn Ryan?

  Which is morphed into this.

• 1:44:16Speaker 01

  That's great. That's great. So, yeah, anyway, all that being said, I really wanted to go, go fly. So I, I figured this trend was going to take a while to, to play out because this was pre, pre-Ukraine. So I wanted to go fly for, for eight, 10 years and then go start the company.

• 1:44:33Shawn Ryan?

  Hold on. How old, I'm sorry to interrupt. How old were you during COVID?

• 1:44:36Speaker 01

  I was 16.

• 1:44:39Shawn Ryan?

  16 years old? I mean, this is, how did that affect you? I mean, a lot of people talk about how younger generations were affected by COVID, wearing masks for two years, not being able, you know, you missed out on a lot. How do you feel that that affected your generation going through COVID?

• 1:44:55Speaker 01

  I think my story was probably different than most. I mean, it was actually a net good thing for me, I'd say. I got nothing out of school when COVID was happening. Like, I don't think I logged into a single class. But I, I'm, I'm an obsessive person. So all I did was create like a total vacuum for me to work on whatever I wanted to work on. And so. Yeah, I just got obsessed with making things and about learning about engineering and thinking. Right. Um, I think on average is probably pretty bad. Like if you're, I, I was fortunate because I was, I was in a place where I could go forge knives. Like, most people can't go into their backyard and forge knives, right? I got super into hunting. I, I bought a crossbow and would just go hunt deer around like kind of my neighborhood. Like, that's not something that, that most people can do.

• 1:45:40Speaker 01

  And so if I were trapped in a city during COVID, it would have been a very, very different story. And I think it would have been really, really bad for me. But honestly, with, without COVID, I never would have gotten into engineering in any of the same way I did. It basically just gave me time to go and find the things that I actually think are important and that I actually like working on.

• 1:45:58Shawn Ryan?

  Wow. How do you think it, how did you think it affected the majority of your generation?

• 1:46:03Speaker 01

  I think people spent a lot more time on social media. I think it kind of kicked off this wave of ultra short form content.

• 1:46:12Speaker 01

  And which is, I think, the most destructive thing for my generation. TikTok and reels and everything else. I think it created a lot of isolation. Right? Like, people just couldn't see their friends. And it's, it's also like the, the, I was younger than the people that got horribly affected. The people that really affected is if you're, it's, if it's your senior year of high school or your freshman year of college, it was really, really bad. Because folks a few years older than me, they're, if you're freshman year of college, you're not meeting friends. You're not going to class, but you're at an age that is so exponentially important. I think it really disrupted those people. And then probably equally bad, if not worse, is the senior of high school. Like, that's such an important time to basically tie up your childhood.

• 1:46:56Speaker 01

  Going to graduation, your last year of football, all this stuff.

• 1:46:59Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, a lot of people think the younger, even younger than that, you know, uh, were more affected because you're picking up, um, you know, you're picking up how to read facial expressions, body language, shit like that, and a fucking mask over the face. I mean, it, it, it masks.

• 1:47:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:47:14Shawn Ryan?

  It literally masks it.

• 1:47:16Speaker 01

  For sure. Yeah, no, it's, it's bad. And then, I mean, Bernie was the first school district in the country, I think, to go back to school.

• 1:47:22Shawn Ryan?

  No kidding?

• 1:47:24Speaker 01

  I, I, I think, I, I won't, don't quote me on that, but we're one of the first, if not the first, because I went back in August of 2020. And so it was also like significantly less destructive.

• 1:47:35Shawn Ryan?

  Texas.

• 1:47:37Speaker 01

  If you're in, if you're in New York and you missed a year and a half of school, no one, online school, no one got anything out of. Like it sets you back at least a year and a half, probably more because you got out of routine. And because even once you got back, it was still disrupted. And so folks also, if, if you assume you have 12 grades of, of high school to learn, folks are missing, folks are missing two of those 12 in many cases. So you're forged your knives? Yes. All right, all right. We can move past it now. Yeah. Uh, anyway, I, it, going to, to MIT, I really wanted to fly. And then if you're going to fly, you should be studying aerospace engineering. MIT was the best school for aerospace engineering. And then I was super fortunate to get a, a full ride scholarship to go and do that. Um, with, with the air force.

• 1:48:21Speaker 01

  And then I, I did play football in, in high school. I should say I'm, I'm quite bad at, at football. Um, I, I, MIT process for football, they don't offer you before you get in. Like it's D3, they actually usually have a winning record, they do fine. But they refuse to give offers because they like, MIT, one of my favorite things about it is there's no, there's no like ulterior motive, ulterior motives in the selection process. So they don't look at donations, they don't look at background, they certainly don't look at sports. But getting in, then I was able to go play football, which was awesome. Like football is such a good way in college to, to, to just make friends and have a friend group. Um, and so between football being the best at aerospace engineering and then most importantly, that the air force side,

• 1:49:05Speaker 01

  MIT had the highest basically pilot selection rating of the non academies. Um, and so I went there after signing though, so I, I, I basically, senior year of high school, December, decided to go. Well, Ukraine starts that next spring. And pretty immediately, once Ukraine started, we started learning how quick unmanned systems were going to play out. Right? Like you start seeing quads hit tanks. Even you start seeing drones, like I was talking about since forward for artillery. And so I got to MIT. Um, and at that point, the decision was between like, do you stay for four years and then a year to a pilot school and then get in and 27, 28, or do you just decide to drop it?

• 1:49:48Speaker 01

  And one is basically like you, you 100% have an impact in what you care about. The other one is like, you have a very, very small chance of having quite a large impact in what you care about. And so started talking with friends, went, went early for, for football preseason. While I was there, there's a thing called ERUPs, which is basically undergraduate research opportunities where a, a student can work for a professor to research something. Actually convinced a professor to take on my research so that I could work for him and get myself funded.

• 1:50:22Speaker 01

  This is why we focus on hydrogen so much early is because you can only do that on science stuff. So like, they're never going to go do that on like regular plane engineering. They're never going to go do that on balloons, certainly. The hydrogen stuff was actually interesting for them. And so I convinced them to do that. Well, that professor pretty immediately realizes that the, the university is not going to fund him to fund a kid to build guns on campus. So they kicked me over to Lincoln Labs, which is MIT's basically research department. I think by dollars, it's the biggest military lab. It's where they develop a, a lot of the really interesting stuff, specifically on the RF side. So there was actually a period of time where I was planning on dropping out and working at Lincoln Labs. This is still freshman semester, first few weeks of, of, of school, trying to figure that out.

• 1:51:05Speaker 01

  Well, the labs, I, I went and talked to them and I was like, hey, walk me through technologies you've developed that have actually made their way into the hands of the warfighter. Like you're spending all this money, where does it actually have an impact? They're like, well, usually it takes 15, 20 years. Right? And then the issue is I couldn't even develop it and then take it from the lab and commercialize it to, to have an impact on the battlefield because they own your IP. And so, yeah, they're like, literally if you machine like one part at Lincoln Labs, that IP is now owned by Lincoln Labs.

• 1:51:36Shawn Ryan?

  Wow.

• 1:51:37Speaker 01

  And so that suddenly wasn't an option. And then I, I decided to drop out pretty early into the semester, but I, I like was already paid to be there for a semester. I wanted a semester to like make friends, learn how the system works, recruit for the school. Um, and so went through the rest of the semester and then left after that.

• 1:51:58Shawn Ryan?

  What did you think of MIT? I mean, I mean, now you're around. And I would think you're around a lot more people that are on your level.

• 1:52:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean.

• 1:52:09Shawn Ryan?

  I would think that you can talk about things that you're excited about and and other people will understand what you're talking about rather than trying to explain it to me.

• 1:52:21Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, and I don't I don't mean that in a derogatory way towards anybody. I'm just it's just the fucking way it is.

• 1:52:26Speaker 01

  No, I I will say it was both exciting in certain ways and and also not that exciting in certain ways. Like you learn that people are just people. And like having hired a lot of engineers at this point, the top 5% coming out of any school, like any school on earth are always going to be as good, if not better than the top, the bottom 50% at a place like MIT. And so I would say, look, like the actual raw horsepower and IQ is is not that meaningfully different. The thing that is very different is it's a total machine of a culture and that you're expected to step in and work 20 hours a day and just obsess about honing your craft of engineering.

• 1:53:07Speaker 01

  And you're thrown into this environment where you get your ass kicked. Like you're used to being the smartest person. Suddenly you wake up and you're an idiot. It's fantastic. It's like all you can ask for. And then there's so much funding that goes into, hey, what's your obsession? Okay, we're gonna fund that and go and develop that. Right? And so that's what's great about MIT. I'd actually say like the people themselves are very similar. And that part I loved. I mean, it's not perfect. Don't get me wrong. There's obviously politics. There's obviously all these different things. But I I don't know if there's another environment on earth like MIT in that way. Like even having hired from these other schools at this point, the the specific thing that sets it apart is just the obsession with first principles. And then everyone is expected to just work so insanely hard. And that was fantastic. So I I loved MIT. And then the MIT football team was a really interesting group of humanity.

• 1:53:53Speaker 01

  Most of my best friends were made during that six month period because you've got people who like sit at that intersection, which is a lot of fun. So it was a great school. I mean, if I was gonna go back to college, I'd certainly go there. I'm obviously not going back to college, but I loved it there. And me leaving had nothing to do with MIT. Honestly, had nothing to do with me wanting to build a company and everything to do with the fact that like there are real problems that we have to go solve. And me, me entering in 2028 is, I didn't at least think it was as meaningful as like going and jumping in in 2022, 2023, going headfirst into these problems.

• 1:54:27Shawn Ryan?

  Were you passionate about Ukraine?

• 1:54:29Speaker 01

  Very.

• 1:54:30Shawn Ryan?

  Why?

• 1:54:31Speaker 01

  Very. Look, I think it's a clear war of good and evil. And you can separate all the politics that have infused since then, but you had Putin, who's clear objective evil in the world invade another sovereign country. And so I'm still very passionate about Ukraine.

• 1:54:50Shawn Ryan?

  Right on. Just curious.

• 1:54:51Speaker 01

  Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, it's not perfect. No country is perfect. But I've spent time in Ukraine. Like, it's also a very different, like going like meeting the people whose like sons were killed, going like actually like experiencing that's a, it's a very, very like real war that's happening that thousands of people die every day that are not fighting for anything other than their own freedom. And I think if, if, if us is the West can't separate politics out from that and say like objectively, they're, they're like mothers whose sons are dying objectively, they're 22 year olds who are going to go die in the trench for, for their own freedom. That is something worth supporting. No, I think, I

• 1:55:33Speaker 01

  think the, a lot led into the war. And obviously the US support of the war, I'm actually, I'm very happy to talk it through, but like Ukraine itself, it's one of the things I'm most passionate about in life is, is the sovereignty of Ukraine. Like I, I think, look, I think Ukraine's gonna go down in history. We'll, we'll see the history is still being written. But if, if they push off this invasion, you're talking about a level of like the Alamo style, like stepping up against a bigger adversary and punching back that the history hasn't seen many times. And

• 1:56:08Speaker 01

  Ukraine's corrupt. It's very corrupt, but you have to separate that from, from the actual people that live in that corrupt system that are fighting for their freedom.

• 1:56:17Shawn Ryan?

  Mm hmm. I'm not judging you.

• 1:56:19Speaker 01

  No, no, no, it's, I, I absolutely.

• 1:56:20Shawn Ryan?

  Genuinely curious on why you're passionate about that as an 18, 20 year old kid.

• 1:56:24Speaker 01

  Yeah, and, and feel, feel free to, to judge me or to push back. I think this is like why we have these conversations. Um, not that I'm saying you are, I'm just saying I'm, I'm happy to talk about it. Um, but yeah, look, like, I think that's, that's, that's why I'm doing all of this, right?

• 1:56:40Shawn Ryan?

  Gotcha.

• 1:56:40Speaker 01

  Is, is, this is why any, this is why the company exists. That's why I'm, I, I, I view myself as, is, is on, like on this earth is to like, protect for individual sovereignty.

• 1:56:51Shawn Ryan?

  It's a good purpose.

• 1:56:53Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 1:56:53Shawn Ryan?

  Are you more, are you more passionate about China, Ukraine, or I'm, I'm sorry, Russia, Ukraine, or China, Taiwan?

• 1:57:01Speaker 01

  Definitely China, Taiwan. I would say at an individual level, it's, it's probably pretty similar. Um, I would say if, if you're talking about the, the impact it will have on the future of sovereignty, China, Taiwan is orders of magnitude more important.

• 1:57:21Shawn Ryan?

  I'm definitely with you on that one.

• 1:57:24Shawn Ryan?

  Definitely with you on that one. Okay. So you got, so Ukraine was your motivation? That's your purpose at the time?

• 1:57:31Speaker 01

  It, well, so in, in more ways than one. So one is like, obviously care about the sovereignty of Ukraine. Two is it's such a crazy glimpse into how big of, how big of a change we, we need to expect from unmanned systems, right? Like we're, we're just in the very early ages of unmanned warfare.

• 1:57:49Shawn Ryan?

  It is fucking crazy, isn't it? I mean, I spent 14 years in and out of combat zones all over the Middle East and I mean, I can't even remember, did Ukraine kick off before we actually even pulled out of Afghanistan? I think it did.

• 1:58:02Speaker 01

  I thought it was.

• 1:58:04Shawn Ryan?

  Pretty sure it did.

• 1:58:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:58:06Shawn Ryan?

  And so the staunch differences in those two conflicts, those wars are just fucking wildly different.

• 1:58:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:58:14Shawn Ryan?

  It's insane how different.

• 1:58:16Speaker 01

  Absolutely. And then the thing, and so that's, that's really what it was about Ukraine as much as the sovereignty is like, this is a crazy glimpse and this is the first near peer, like true near peer conflict we've seen in so long. And so you have to stop thinking about drones as in the context of terrorists and start thinking about drones in the context of nation states sending hundreds of thousands of them against each other. And we're just, we're just in the early dawn of this era. Like you have to keep in mind the actual level of tech being deployed on the battlefield is actually still quite rudimentary. Like if you look at probably the two most important unmanned systems, and this isn't an attack on, on the Ukrainians, right? Like they're, they're doing an incredible, incredible job. It just takes years to build technology.

• 1:59:00Speaker 01

  But you've got quadcopters that are these super, super simple, like four electric motors, directly manually controlled, either over, over radio or through fiber optics, um, that are slow, usually less than a hundred miles an hour, right? That aren't very maneuverable, um, and that aren't designed that well for manufacturing. Like these things are still hand, hand assembled. So you're dealing with lower volume and lower sophistication than we can expect. And same with the Shawhead. Like if you go and look at a Shawhead, you're dealing with like a fiberglass airframe. The original ones were literally powered by like Vespa, like piston driven engines. The autonomy package is horrible, but it's so effective. Like that's the thing. I'm not, I'm not taking away from how effective it is.

• 1:59:43Speaker 01

  Like that stupidly simple quadcopter will go and take out the most sophisticated tank anyone on earth can build.

• 1:59:51Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah.

• 1:59:52Speaker 01

  Right? You look at Operation Spiderweb. I mean, you look at those things taking out hundreds of millions or billions of strategic air power on the runway. And so it, if you, if you imagine the type of tech we deal with in the day to day, and you imagine that being applied to unmanned systems, you imagine what it actually looks like when the, the true force of innovation meets unmanned systems, which is happening today. It wasn't happening three years ago.

• 2:00:19Speaker 01

  You push so far up that curve in a way that that is just terrifying. And so that's why Ukraine was with such an eye opener is like, these are still super unsophisticated systems that are totally defining the only near peer conflict that that we've seen in recent history. And so give it five years, certainly give it 10 years, and the the level of effect these systems will have is just so huge. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I can't even imagine what this is going to turn into. Yeah. But when was the first time you went to Ukraine? I've only been once. I went, I don't remember the year, probably 2023, 2024. What were you doing?

• 2:01:02Speaker 01

  Just, just working on mock stuff. I mean, I didn't do a ton there. I didn't spend that much time there. I don't want to like, it's not something I'm trying to brag about or anything like I, I wanted to, for me, it was like, how can you get as close as possible to the war that's actually happening? How did you get there? Um, I Go? I was in a conference in Poland and and met some Ukrainian Foreign Legion guys. Okay. Um, and then just hopped in their car and rode across the border with them.

• 2:01:31Speaker 01

  That's awesome. I love that shit. It was, I mean, it was, it was, it was crazy eye opening. What'd you see?

• 2:01:39Speaker 01

  So I went to, I went to one of the schools where they train these operators. And you, you literally pull people off the street, you put them in front of a TV screen with a controller for a week. And you you teach them how to do that. And suddenly you've got someone that can take out a target 20 miles away for $400. Like, that's crazy. I went and saw a factory where they're making these things. And you've got things that are destroying $50 million aircraft that are assembled by like Ukrainian grandmothers, right? Like, that's, that's what asymmetry means, right? And so, and then you, you actually meet people. Like, it's, it's very humanizing to actually talk to the people that are fighting the conflict.

• 2:02:19Speaker 01

  So yeah, I mean, nothing ultra profound, but like for for me, it's so easy to to sit in VC land and like pump up your valuation, do all these different things, raise money from VCs who have never never fought in war. I've obviously, I'm not a warfighter. Like, it's very easy to get separated from the actual problem. But if you truly want to solve issues, like you have to get as close as possible to the people actually using your systems at the end of the day.

• 2:02:45Shawn Ryan?

  Wow. So you knew you were gonna build drones when before you you knew it?

• 2:02:52Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 2:02:53Shawn Ryan?

  Right away?

• 2:02:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, um, certain, yeah.

• 2:02:58Shawn Ryan?

  How many years did you spend at MIT?

• 2:03:00Speaker 01

  A semester.

• 2:03:02Shawn Ryan?

  That's it?

• 2:03:02Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 2:03:03Shawn Ryan?

  A semester?

• 2:03:04Speaker 01

  So I filled out the form to drop out like a handful of weeks in.

• 2:03:08Shawn Ryan?

  What? I mean, so what convinced you? Holy shit. So you you're in one of the most prestigious schools in the world. In a couple of weeks in, you're like, ah, fuck, this isn't for me?

• 2:03:20Speaker 01

  I think.

• 2:03:23Speaker 01

  And I was I was clear with with everyone about this. I expected failure. Like, the the numbers I was running is like, of course, it's crazy to say you're gonna go and build these systems, build these factories, do these different things. But if there's if there's a one in a hundred thousand chance that you can ship hundreds of thousands of platforms over the next five years, like, you have, again, you you have to do it. Like, the median's certainly lower, but like, the the average, the net expected value of like, going and dropping out. And so I fully expected to to to run out of money for it all to fail. I was I was pretty clear about that. But if if there's a chance of making a difference, you have to jump in and do it. And so I wasn't excited about it. Like, it wasn't it wasn't like I was sitting there hating MIT. It wasn't like I was like.

• 2:04:03Shawn Ryan?

  You just fell to duty?

• 2:04:06Speaker 01

  I'd say so.

• 2:04:07Shawn Ryan?

  Oh, my damned. Wow. Man.

• 2:04:12Shawn Ryan?

  That's impressive.

• 2:04:13Speaker 01

  Thank you. And it, look, I mean, there's still a very long ways to go. Like, like, I, I'd say I, I still feel that way. Like the, for, for our company, for the military industrial base writ large, like, we're still in the early days of actually adopting this correctly. And so it's been about three years now since I dropped out and decided to do that. And I think we, we still have decades of work left to do if we, if we actually want to see that impact.

• 2:04:40Shawn Ryan?

  Man, you are a cool dude.

• 2:04:43Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 2:04:44Shawn Ryan?

  You're welcome. So what, what are you working on? Where do you go after you drop out of MIT?

• 2:04:50Speaker 01

  So a few of my buddies decided to do the same.

• 2:04:54Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah.

• 2:04:54Speaker 01

  I was super excited about.

• 2:04:56Shawn Ryan?

  Football team?

• 2:04:56Speaker 01

  Football and then two of the other sort of Air Force ROTC people. There's something called Campus Preview Weekend, or not, not Campus Preview Weekend, that's a different thing. What's it called? Damn it. Now I'm forgetting the name for it. MIT gives everyone off all of January. And you're expected to go and work on basically a project. And so all the students were off for like a month, which was awesome. Cause I didn't have, I didn't have the money to support anyone other than myself. So I literally couldn't have people drop out with me. But a bunch of my buddies and I decided that like this month, we're just going to sprint on working on these problems. And then after that, it would just be me because I couldn't support any of them dropping out. And so for that month, I got, it was about the size of this room, a workshop and in Charlestown, like the cheapest real estate in Boston we could find.

• 2:05:41Speaker 01

  And just started building a bunch of different things. So we built quadcopters, we, we built a gun, we built a, basically a shot head.

• 2:05:49Shawn Ryan?

  A what?

• 2:05:50Speaker 01

  It's a type of, so this was pre, shot head is like the Dorito drone that the Russians use like crazy. This was actually pre-shot head. And so we built what ended up being the shot head that was used like crazy in Ukraine.

• 2:06:01Shawn Ryan?

  No kidding. How do you decide on what to build?

• 2:06:04Speaker 01

  Uh, that's kind of my main job is to, to ideally be, be as smart as.

• 2:06:09Shawn Ryan?

  Walk me through the process. Why are you, why are you building guns and drones? What do you do? How do you decide which one you're going to do first?

• 2:06:17Speaker 01

  Yeah. So you have to, you have to try and war game what a battlefield looks like in the future. It's a very, very hard thing to do. And I, I won't say I'm necessarily good at it, but you have to basically understand technologies that exist, understand the current state of warfare. And imagine like what the best possible system is in the future. The way. And that's your kind of first optimization? The issue is you have kind of two other optimizations.

• 2:06:42Shawn Ryan?

  How do you do that? Is that internal thought? Is that discussion? Is that whiteboard? What is that?

• 2:06:47Speaker 01

  All three and in massive, massive volumes. I mean, again, that's why I went to Ukraine. And obviously I grew up having these conversations with my family, talking to engineers, talking to warfighters. Basically putting together this model of like, what is kind of, what is if, if tech were full throttle? What would this look like? Now, the issue is there are kind of two other optimizations that have to sit parallel to that. The first is what will the government actually procure? And this is the one I understood least well at this time. Like if, even if a technology is better, if the government can't procure it in time and can't train on it in time, it's completely useless. And then for me, I don't have the budget of the, the United States government, right? Like I can't say, we're going to go work on this. So for me, all a company is, is basically a lever for action, right?

• 2:07:32Speaker 01

  And so for me, if I want that lever to have any real momentum behind it, I have to, I have to make money for my investors to keep raising more capital. And so those are kind of the three main optimizations is like, what works in warfare? What can the warfighter actually adopt in time, given politics, given training, given all these different things? And then what can I as a company actually make money to build a machine that keeps compounding this?

• 2:07:54Speaker 01

  And then at the time I had no idea what would actually, I like my, my algorithms comparing those three things were quite bad. And I think we, we kind of knew that, which is why we took such a broad aperture. So literally in that one month, you, you've got quadcopters, you've got guns, you've got fixed wing drones, you've got balloon stuff. We're, we built an hydrogen electrolyzer. We did some aluminum fuel.

• 2:08:18Shawn Ryan?

  Hydro electrolyzer?

• 2:08:19Speaker 01

  It's, it sounds more complex than it is. You basically take water, you shock it and you separate the hydrogen oxygen. And then you recombust that for guns. Or for air travel or other things. We built aluminum fuel that also does that. So you take aluminum, it's aluminum, you remove the oxide layer, you put it in water. And then it rips basically the, the oxygen off of the water and produces hydrogen. So we, we developed some of that fuel. Worked on like a after burning electric ducted fan, all different stuff.

• 2:08:52Shawn Ryan?

  Like we're. How many guys are doing this with you?

• 2:08:54Speaker 01

  There were five of us.

• 2:08:55Shawn Ryan?

  This shit's all happening in one fucking month?

• 2:08:59Speaker 01

  We didn't sleep.

• 2:09:00Shawn Ryan?

  What?

• 2:09:01Speaker 01

  It was a lot. Um, it was a lot. Yeah, small budget. We're all sleep deprived.

• 2:09:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, it was, it was a good month, though.

• 2:09:09Shawn Ryan?

  Sounds like it.

• 2:09:10Speaker 01

  But again, that we're a lab at this point because we had no idea what we were doing. It's just like, let's prove, let's prove to investors that we can actually build things. Let's ourselves start to learn what it means to be good engineers. Because again, you're, you're learning all this theory and I had built a few things and they had built a few things, but now you actually have a bit more of a budget to start doing it.

• 2:09:32Speaker 01

  And then from that, then you can take it to the warfighter. Right? Because if I, if I, if I call someone in, in, in the Pentagon, I'm like, hey, I want to have a conversation about something I'm working on. And they said, cool, what do you have? And I show them a spreadsheet or, or, or slides. That's very, very different than like, hey, here's this video of this thing flying. And so part of it is also like, you never know what the Pentagon is going to take seriously. Unless you, you have something that makes them take it seriously enough to give it another pass.

• 2:09:59Speaker 01

  And then from there, they all went back to school and it was just me for the next semester. This was a really hard time. Like, this is probably the closest the company ever came to, to not working. Because we had all this work, but they'd all gone. And at this point, I was doing everything in the business. I was doing the sales. I was the janitor. I was, I was, well, I was still pushing the engineering along as much as I could and they would, they would work on the weekends or after school. But it's, it's MIT, like they were, they had a lot of coursework and other things to do.

• 2:10:27Speaker 01

  But, I mean, super, super grateful. We're, we're able to find investment capital at that point. From a couple of different folks. That's when Sequoia invested. That's when 1517 did another round. It was, it was a good time. But it was later. Like, it was like after like four or five months. There, there are all these. Like, there's.

• 2:10:46Shawn Ryan?

  Were you learning to pitch? Or do they have recruited? They probably have recruiters all around MIT.

• 2:10:50Speaker 01

  Yeah, they hear about it and they ask you for a meeting and they come to the factory and.

• 2:10:55Shawn Ryan?

  Gotcha.

• 2:10:55Speaker 01

  Look at stuff.

• 2:10:56Shawn Ryan?

  Does that make you nervous?

• 2:10:58Speaker 01

  Not really.

• 2:10:58Shawn Ryan?

  It did?

• 2:10:59Speaker 01

  I, I don't, I don't get nervous in conversations. Like, I love conversations. I get.

• 2:11:03Shawn Ryan?

  Nervous you're going to get taken advantage of by a shark.

• 2:11:07Speaker 01

  I can look out for myself. Folks have tried and I've beat them back to the best I can. You can't, I don't know. I like to avoid being nervous about things.

• 2:11:19Shawn Ryan?

  I'm just curious.

• 2:11:20Speaker 01

  No, it's, I get nervous. My fears are usually more existential than they are micro. Like, I don't know if I've ever been afraid of a pitch meeting or afraid of like a given test. Because the stakes are so high, you almost, you're gonna do everything you can and if that's not enough, it's not enough. But there's no reason to be nervous about that fact. I don't know if that makes sense.

• 2:11:43Shawn Ryan?

  It does.

• 2:11:46Speaker 01

  But, yeah, anyway, we raised capital then.

• 2:11:49Shawn Ryan?

  It's a tremendous amount of confidence in yourself.

• 2:11:52Speaker 01

  Thank you. Yeah, it's not though. I guess is the other thing I'll say. Like, I'm not saying I expect success. I'm just saying I'm gonna do everything I can and that the results will be what the results are. Because you would go insane in any other way. Like, there's nothing actually inherently that painful about company building. Like, I think there's this narrative spun up by CEOs that company building is like this incredibly painful, essentially worrying thing. And it can be at times, but if, my goal, and I'm not great at this, but my goal is like, all company building is, is conversations. All company is, building is, is like working at a computer. It's not like, it's not like I'm being shot at, right?

• 2:12:35Speaker 01

  Like, it's actually like so much less existential. You have to, you have to try and separate the two as much as you can.

• 2:12:44Shawn Ryan?

  Man, I think the opposite. I think building a company is fucking hard.

• 2:12:48Speaker 01

  It's hard.

• 2:12:48Shawn Ryan?

  Hardest thing I've done. I'd rather, I'd rather be face down with bullets flying over my head because I'm more comfortable in that situation, but...

• 2:12:57Speaker 01

  That might be you.

• 2:13:01Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's challenging and the, the odds are very, very slim. But it's not, it's not personally dangerous. It's not, it's not like you're having to, anyway, I don't know.

• 2:13:13Shawn Ryan?

  I get what you're saying.

• 2:13:16Speaker 01

  But we, yeah, so then we, we raised capital and that was, that was big time because then all those people were able to drop out with me and we're able to scale the company. So then after that semester, um, we went and got two houses down in Austin and we had some stupid numbers like thirty or thirty-five people from MIT and Harvard come, moved down to Texas for that semester. And all living in two houses. We worked in one of the houses.

• 2:13:39Shawn Ryan?

  Holy shit.

• 2:13:40Speaker 01

  So we put up a bunch of insulation in the garage, ran like a 3D printer farm. We would test jet engines in the backyard.

• 2:13:50Speaker 01

  And then the other house was like the hangout house. So we had like Lucida, which was the workhouse and the Balconies, which was like the, the, the hangout house. We'd have a barbecue every Friday and, and all hang out. The AC broke in Lucida. We were running so many 3D printers and different things. Um, the, the AC got overwhelmed and it was like ninety degrees in that house for like two weeks. And there was like thirty of us in there building stuff.

• 2:14:13Shawn Ryan?

  Holy shit.

• 2:14:14Speaker 01

  And then understandably, it was a weird environment to try and hire like professionals into at times. That's when we made our first few hires. It's like, hey, come join this crew. It's like, tough. Um, but we, we got, we got some, some solid stuff done and then we're able to go and raise the A. And that's when Bedrock stepped up, like the, the company would not exist with, without Bedrock kind of placing the vote of confidence they did on us at that point for the A, which is when we were able to go and get like a proper office. We were able to buy CNC machines. I was able to actually hire people. Cause even on five million dollars, if you're paying engineers two hundred thousand dollars a year and you need fifty engineers to do a program, you burn through your money real quick. Um, working on stuff like we are now, it's different, but like Viper is a vertical takeoff fighter jet.

• 2:14:59Speaker 01

  Like that's not something that you're going to build on that amount of money. And so really until Bedrock made that vote of confidence, it was all kind of lab-esque work of like proving our competence, proving that we could do things, starting early customer conversations. And that's when the company, I'd say like actually like truly cemented was around that A that Bedrock led.

• 2:15:18Shawn Ryan?

  What were you building in the house? What were you 3D printing?

• 2:15:23Speaker 01

  It's a good question. What all were we working on at the time? We had three major programs at this point. So we had, we had Viper, which is today, it's a six and a half foot long vertical takeoff fighter jet. Back then, all we could afford was like crappy RC turbines. So it was runway launched and never worked super well. And then the next I had this dream for something called, we used to call it Medusa. It was this big tail sitter drone to a thousand mile range. We, we had three printers. We're never going to build that. We're building like scale demonstrations. Uh, but a tail sitter that would go take off, do ISR, do strike, and then come back and land. A big part of our philosophy has always been decentralization.

• 2:16:06Speaker 01

  Like the, the next era of warfare, one of the only things I think you can say with confidence right now is that strike is much easier at, at long range. And so defending centralized assets, ships in the ocean, aircraft on the runway, even 2,000, 3,000 miles away becomes so much harder. And so our big emphasis, one of them has always been on this decentralization. Like, how do you, how do you have things take off vertically? How do you have things only require two operators so that you and I can walk outside, launch something and be gone by the time they figure out where it came from?

• 2:16:37Speaker 01

  So that was Medusa. And then the, the third, and this plays into the decentralization bet, but again, was a bad bet was something called Prometheus, which was, this is actually done up in Boston. So this work, the first two I described were happening down in, in Austin. The other one was up in Boston, was basically an aluminum hydrogen generator. And so similarly, as you look at Endopacom, one of the hard problems is how do you fuel these forces? Going forward. And that gets even harder if you're, if your tankers are getting taken out by unmanned surface vehicles. Right. By unmanned underwater vehicles, by these different things. And so one of the big things we're focused on is how do you actually generate fuel at point of need? And so that's why we were doing the aluminum hydrogen work. Now.

• 2:17:21Shawn Ryan?

  You're kind of taking a very complex problem. And you're also thinking about all the logistics and everything that go along with the products that you're making.

• 2:17:30Speaker 01

  You have to, you have to. That's where.

• 2:17:32Shawn Ryan?

  Are these other companies doing that? I don't think they are.

• 2:17:35Speaker 01

  I think, I think they are now. I don't think necessarily no, I mean, frankly, what they were working on at the time was better than what we were working on at the time. Cause the aluminum thing was, maybe we thought through one specific niche area of the problem very well, but the rest was, was actually not. Not great. I would say we do take probably a more full stack approach to things.

• 2:17:59Speaker 01

  But no, the other companies working in the space are very good. Like I think this this new era of people working on these problems take it seriously.

• 2:18:06Shawn Ryan?

  Oh, I've talked to a lot of them. They're all fucking sharp. I haven't heard anyone talk about logistics.

• 2:18:11Speaker 01

  Logistics one's worse. Like that is that is

• 2:18:14Shawn Ryan?

  Yep.

• 2:18:15Speaker 01

  Other than your people, it's the most important thing at the end of the day.

• 2:18:19Shawn Ryan?

  What is the saying amateurs talk tactics, pros talk logistics?

• 2:18:24Speaker 01

  Yeah, something like that.

• 2:18:28Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's important. The way I mean, the way we're looking at the logistics problem now is not requiring runways, making things as small as they possibly can be so that they're easy to get into theater. Like Glide is literally this big. It can take out, take out a target a very, very far range.

• 2:18:46Shawn Ryan?

  Which one is Glide?

• 2:18:48Speaker 01

  That's the one we kind of talk about the least. It's it's one of our, it's a high altitude glide vehicle to take out targets. It's a, it's a more sensitive con op. But it's it's this big and you and I could deploy this here and take out a target a long ways down range.

• 2:19:01Shawn Ryan?

  Is this the thing that looks like a missile?

• 2:19:03Speaker 01

  That's that's Viper. So we have, we have five products we've, we've talked about publicly.

• 2:19:09Speaker 01

  So one is is Viper. It's about a six and a half foot long vertical takeoff, kind of miniature fighter jet. And so the the job of Viper is to do everything a fighter jet would do as best as can be done while being cheap enough to mass manufacture, like cheap enough to seriously go and make a million, two million of these things and then be runway independent. And so several hundred mile range, several hundred mile, like 600 miles an hour can go and get up to these high altitudes, but only cost a hundred thousand dollars. And you and I could take it out of a Pelican case here and launch it with no ground infrastructure. And so Army is super excited about Viper for, or a bunch of folks are for for surface to surface, but then that same aircraft you can take and go do surface to air.

• 2:19:51Speaker 01

  And so that's Viper and then

• 2:19:53Shawn Ryan?

  So hold on. So this is Viper. I mean, does it? Does it carry a payload or is it the payload?

• 2:19:59Speaker 01

  Right now it is the payload.

• 2:20:00Shawn Ryan?

  It is the payload.

• 2:20:01Speaker 01

  That's not necessarily true of future versions of Viper. So the other thing we do with our products is every every six months or so, I'm trying to get that down, but they're they're hard products to engineer. We we try to completely re-architect the product. And so the the current version of Viper, few hundred mile range, purely surface to surface. And I shouldn't talk too much about future, but like eventually you're dropping payloads. Eventually you're coming in and landing vertically and doing all these different things. But you're doing that at a price point that's like 10 times less than a current air-to-air missile.

• 2:20:30Shawn Ryan?

  Wow.

• 2:20:31Speaker 01

  So that's a fun one. Uh, we've been flying that one for about a year now. Um.

• 2:20:36Shawn Ryan?

  We could use a couple of those here.

• 2:20:37Speaker 01

  I can. You want one?

• 2:20:39Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, fuck yeah, I want one.

• 2:20:41Speaker 01

  I'll get you a Viper.

• 2:20:42Shawn Ryan?

  Are you serious?

• 2:20:43Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:20:43Shawn Ryan?

  Oh, fuck, yes.

• 2:20:44Speaker 01

  I'm guessing no warhead in the Viper. Well, I'll get you.

• 2:20:47Shawn Ryan?

  Take some warheads too. I might get that run in with the ATF.

• 2:20:51Speaker 01

  There you go. Yeah, I'll get you a Viper. Hundred percent.

• 2:20:54Shawn Ryan?

  Are you serious?

• 2:20:55Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:20:56Shawn Ryan?

  Fuck, yeah.

• 2:20:57Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:20:57Shawn Ryan?

  Yes.

• 2:20:59Speaker 01

  The composite, my, the manufacturing guys are gonna be so excited building that Viper.

• 2:21:03Shawn Ryan?

  No shit?

• 2:21:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:21:05Shawn Ryan?

  Dude, you gotta come back. You gotta come back. You gotta come back.

• 2:21:08Speaker 01

  Oh, a hundred percent get you a Viper. Um. Do you want me to walk through the products? Is this interesting?

• 2:21:14Shawn Ryan?

  Absolutely. Yes, all of them.

• 2:21:17Speaker 01

  I

• 2:21:17Shawn Ryan?

  As much as you can.

• 2:21:18Speaker 01

  Yeah, for sure. So the stratosphere, I can talk less about.

• 2:21:21Shawn Ryan?

  Okay.

• 2:21:21Speaker 01

  I think it's the most important. And this is the the bet we're placing is a company that is sort of most distinct and also kind of most controversial. Right now. I am a huge believer, and you're gonna laugh. I'm a huge believer and have been like since high school, that balloons are the most important tools in future conflict.

• 2:21:40Shawn Ryan?

  You mentioned that at breakfast.

• 2:21:42Speaker 01

  I did. Well, the the the balloon in the US this week, the Chinese balloon.

• 2:21:48Shawn Ryan?

  The Mexican car drone that wound up being a happy birthday balloon.

• 2:21:51Speaker 01

  Exactly. Um, I mean, the Russians are starting to to send balloons out at Lithuania. It's causing a real problem. Obviously, I got a ton of traction. So the the Chinese balloon happened during that semester after I dropped out, which is part of why we were able to get funding is I was talking to all these people talking about balloons and they're like laughing. And then suddenly our entire country freaks the hell out because of balloons. Um. But Yeah, I won't go into into it too specifically, but shooting a balloon down is so much harder than putting a balloon up. So much harder.

• 2:22:21Shawn Ryan?

  Exactly.

• 2:22:24Speaker 01

  So putting a balloon up is super easy for obvious reasons, right? Like you you fill it up with gas and it goes up to, let's say, sixty thousand, eighty thousand feet. Well, to then go pop it, you've got to send a missile or a plane up to sixty to eighty thousand feet. And so this is, we talk a lot about asymmetry, like this is asymmetry at the maximum.

• 2:22:44Shawn Ryan?

  I see what you're saying.

• 2:22:45Speaker 01

  And then the interesting thing is there's there's these companies, Loon is the most famous, that actually developed ways of navigating balloons. So instead of this being something that's like a party balloon that goes up, pops, disappears, basically forms a satellite that can navigate, that can station keep. They can do all these different things. And so suddenly you've got a payload at an altitude that's a hundred to a thousand times more expensive to shoot down than it is to put up. They can actually tack against wind patterns and lock in places. And then from there, there's there's obviously really interesting things you can do once you have a payload up at that altitude. And then the more interesting thing is if I can have hundreds of thousands of payloads, like hundreds of thousands of payloads up at that altitude at a given time.

• 2:23:28Speaker 01

  So so we have we have Stratus payloads up at altitude, really, really interesting things you can do deploying those things at scale. And something I should mention is like, as we talk logistics, the logistics of balloons are pretty fantastic. Because you can launch them thousands of miles away. And so you and I could launch a balloon here and have it up over X country, actually much quicker than I think most people realize.

• 2:23:53Speaker 01

  And so the logistics problem gets significantly, significantly easier.

• 2:23:56Shawn Ryan?

  And so how did you come to the conclusion that balloons would be so important?

• 2:24:02Speaker 01

  It's just physics. It's you look at how cheap something is to put up, you look at how expensive it is to to shoot down.

• 2:24:10Speaker 01

  You think about inventing new ways to shoot stuff down, like you start wargaming. Well, if you're shooting down balloons, well, what if the balloons are carrying air-to-air missiles, all these different things?

• 2:24:22Speaker 01

  So anyway, I, I, I've, we've held that contention strongly for a while as a company. We're working very, very, very hard.

• 2:24:28Shawn Ryan?

  Does this stuff just pop in your head? Or, I mean?

• 2:24:33Speaker 01

  It does. I mean, a lot of this, I, I can't, I can't claim all of these ideas like, and, and it's always hard to tell where an idea comes from, but you're, you're talking to hundreds of different people in a given day. Like, I didn't invent Loon, right? Like, I led, I read the Loon library in high school. They published all of it. They published how to go and navigate these balloons. Um, and so you go and read that and suddenly start thinking about these things and can extrapolate pretty quickly. Um, and then our, our final two products we talk about, one is a, basically a much bigger jet powered aircraft. Um, we flew this for the first time in December. I released a video about it.

• 2:25:07Shawn Ryan?

  Is this the one 71 days from drawing to build?

• 2:25:11Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 2:25:11Shawn Ryan?

  Dude, what the fuck? That's crazy.

• 2:25:14Speaker 01

  I can't take credit for it.

• 2:25:15Shawn Ryan?

  71 days?

• 2:25:17Speaker 01

  The engineers were working hard. And then one of the, one of the good things about our philosophy is we spend so much time on subcomponents. So like most primes or system integrators that go and buy other people's subcomponents and put them together. One of the big things that starts to happen as you develop a really good matrix in engineering org is like you just take your learnings from Viper and apply it to these other aircraft. So it's actually in many cases, the same avionics that fly our different vehicles. It'll be the same jet engines that ship on Viper and, and, and on this other platform.

• 2:25:51Speaker 01

  So it was, it was fast.

• 2:25:53Shawn Ryan?

  So what is, what is this one called?

• 2:25:55Speaker 01

  There are a few different names for it.

• 2:25:57Shawn Ryan?

  Dart?

• 2:25:57Speaker 01

  No, that's a different one.

• 2:25:59Shawn Ryan?

  Okay.

• 2:25:59Speaker 01

  So some, some folks call it Pike, some folks call it Venom. I unfortunately don't get to choose the name of my products. If I was building in commercial industry, I would say, hey, here's the name of my products. And so I developed them to a point and then the government comes up with a name for it that they like to call it. Um, Pike Venom, different, different things for different customers. Um, and or different kind of potential customers. And then past that, we have Dart. Um, Dart is sort of.

• 2:26:30Speaker 01

  My company's best crack at unmanned system defeat. So this is us entering the defensive side. And so there will never be a silver bullet answer to taking out drones. Right? You'll, you'll always have some combination of big platform, some combination of small platform, some combination of jamming, some combination of lasers. But our, our philosophy is to focus on what we think is sort of the power law important problem within that set. For me, like our systems, when they ship down range, don't rely on GPS or RF in terminal. Right? And so what that means is that you really can't jam these things.

• 2:27:08Speaker 01

  Right? Similarly, the way a lot of these drones right now that are slower, that are non maneuverable are taken out with electric based interceptors. Well, that's not going to work. Once you have things like Viper that come in very quickly.

• 2:27:19Shawn Ryan?

  Okay, that's why I was gonna, oh good. I was gonna, I mean, we were talking about Epirus earlier, Leonidas and some of those, uh, some of that weaponry.

• 2:27:26Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:27:27Shawn Ryan?

  And that's, so that, that's what, that's, cause I was gonna say, seems like that's the answer.

• 2:27:32Speaker 01

  It's a different.

• 2:27:33Shawn Ryan?

  Takes out the drones that have the wire, takes out drones without the wire. I think they dropped like a hundred and something fucking drones, what, a month ago?

• 2:27:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:27:41Shawn Ryan?

  Or something out in the desert.

• 2:27:42Speaker 01

  It's one of the best tools. It's great.

• 2:27:45Shawn Ryan?

  But, so you're saying that a weapon like Leonidas or what Epirus is developing is not going to be effective against something like Dart. Or, or, or not Dart, cause that's a defensive one.

• 2:27:58Speaker 01

  I know what you mean.

• 2:27:58Shawn Ryan?

  An offensive one that moves at whatever speed.

• 2:28:01Speaker 01

  So Leonidas is a bit different. So you have jamming and then you've got Leonidas, which is actually directed microwave.

• 2:28:08Shawn Ryan?

  Uh huh.

• 2:28:08Speaker 01

  Leonidas is a great platform and will actually take out most things. Um, it's, it's not a silver bullet though, because the second you, you turn it on, you're pumping so much power. Anyway, there's, there's stuff we shouldn't get into there, but like there are ways to get through it. Specifically with fast moving things that already have a given trajectory.

• 2:28:26Speaker 01

  And so you need, you need the full stack. Like DJIs, the, the drones most unsophisticated adversaries are going to be flying. And, and similar, similar drones are quite susceptible to jamming. Right. And so jam those. You've got something like Leonidas that is very, very, very good against a large number of assets in a given location. Correct. It is, but it's an expensive platform. It's a very, very power hungry platform. And then it's a platform that, that it's pretty easy, quickly to realize where it is. And so then you've got kinetic action where you're actually going and intercepting something. In kinetic action, for certain threats, you want to go use an electric interceptor. Right. So the shot heads I was describing to you, kind of low and slow.

• 2:29:10Speaker 01

  You want to go and hit that with an electric interceptor. The issue is if you've got something like Viper that's cruising up at 35,000 plus feet, coming straight down, super, super fast, maneuvering along the way, you're not going to reach that with an electric interceptor. Right. And so that's when you need faster moving things. The issue with guns is you're pretty good against one adversarial drone. Well, the, most of the targets you're defending are expensive enough to send tens of adversarial drones against. And so if 10 things are coming in at 600 miles an hour all at the same time, your gun is, for obvious reasons, not going to have time to, to shoot it down. And so what, what we're working on with Dart is how cheap can you possibly get an actual missile to go and interdict, interdict these things.

• 2:29:55Speaker 01

  And so one of the issues is if you're using a drone to take out another drone, your drone ends up being as expensive, if not more expensive. And so it's not an asymmetric approach. Gotcha. Right. Whereas with, with our, our missiles and with missile systems, generally speaking, and I guess I should step back, what makes it so expensive is that you're using a jet engine or electric motors or other things to get up to speed, which is why I'm a fan of solid rocket motors. They're super short range, but they're super, super cheap if you manufacture them right. And you can take out, take out adversarial assets at a theoretically a price point cheaper than the asset itself, which gives you sort of your asymmetry back.

• 2:30:35Speaker 01

  And so that's, that's what we're working on with Dart is like, how cheap can you possibly get one of these surface-to-air missiles?

• 2:30:43Shawn Ryan?

  How fast does it go?

• 2:30:45Speaker 01

  So, right now, it's in the sort of transonic, just below transonic regime. We'll end up expanding that line, we'll have supersonic ones. Like, you don't want to waste a supersonic one against a subsonic asset. And so, kind of the, the goal is to have this modular system and you actually have different types of Darts with different capabilities over time. I'm talking to yours in the future here.

• 2:31:07Speaker 01

  But the, the funny thing is, we did this during the First Cold War. Like, when air power first started, we were looking at all these different approaches to taking out aircraft. Like, the F-104 is an interceptor. It's basically like a rocket with wings to go out and take out Russian bombers, right? You've, you've got literally ideas of, like, nuking the air going on at the time. And what ended up winning out is solid rocket motor with aero control surfaces. That's been super, super successful, generally speaking, until the era of stealth. And so, yeah, that's our approach with Dart. It's like vertically integrate this thing as much as possible, drive the cost down as much as you possibly can, optimize it to make hundreds of thousands, because you're going to need so many of these systems. Like, if, if our adversaries are making hundreds of thousands of systems, we, we need

• 2:31:51Speaker 01

  hundreds of thousands of interceptors, at, at least. And that's assuming you even know where they're going to strike. So, you actually likely need significantly more if you want to have true defense.

• 2:32:02Shawn Ryan?

  Man, this is fucking wild, man. I mean, as you're describing all this stuff and you're talking about the decentralization, you know, decentralized military force. I mean, how would these things, it's just so fucking different than from what I'm used to. I mean, everything is, is, everything's centralized to, to, to a flagpole base, whether that's, you know, Kabul, or Bagram, or fucking Baghdad, or anywhere else I've been. And then you have outstations, but it's still all centralized. And, you know, I remember when I interviewed Brandon Sang from Shield AI, I mean, that, that's his big thing.

• 2:32:37Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 2:32:37Shawn Ryan?

  You know, every, every pickleball court in the world is a fucking launchpad. And so, I mean, how, when you think about...

• 2:32:46Shawn Ryan?

  Sending thousands of drones in, where are you gonna send thousands of drones to? Because everything's gonna be fucking decentralized.

• 2:32:54Speaker 01

  And that's, that's why, so you're exactly right.

• 2:32:57Shawn Ryan?

  In the entire, in the entire infrastructure of global militaries has to fucking change because you can't have it centralized under bases.

• 2:33:08Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 2:33:08Shawn Ryan?

  And so what, what does that even look like? Does that look like we just have fucking houses in the middle of neighborhoods that nobody knows about? Where the roofs open up and a fucking drone flies out? Or I mean, in your mind, what does the future look like? I mean, you can't have anything centralized.

• 2:33:25Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:33:25Shawn Ryan?

  You brought up the, the Russian, that, what was the?

• 2:33:29Speaker 01

  Operation Spiderweb.

• 2:33:30Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, that one. I mean, perf, probably, I think that's the first example of what could happen, right?

• 2:33:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:33:36Shawn Ryan?

  You know, and so, and then you put that on a mass scale and, you know.

• 2:33:41Speaker 01

  It's crazy.

• 2:33:41Shawn Ryan?

  Parksville's right up the road. That's where fucking TF160 is. You know what I mean? That we got, you got Patterson Air Force Base, right? All the, you got all this, it's all centralized.

• 2:33:53Speaker 01

  Yep, exactly.

• 2:33:53Shawn Ryan?

  So we're fucked. So how do you, how do you now, not only are we restructuring all the technology, but you have to rethink every, everything that we think we know is, is pretty much completely obsolete.

• 2:34:07Speaker 01

  And this is why, this is why revolutions in military affairs are always so damaged, like so dangerous to great powers. It's like you as the US just have so much confidence in your way of doing things. We need to start today. And I, I, I think, one, you, you need decentralized deep strike capability. You need decentralized ISR capability. And so your actual effects downrange obviously have to be decentralized. Um, you need to, to have assets that are capable of decentralized logistics. Right? You, you can't require a tanker to refuel and air. On the ground, you can't require centralized infrastructure. You can't require a runway. Um, we'll see how far back it marches, but you, you, one could very, very clearly imagine a world

• 2:34:51Speaker 01

  where manufacturing itself has to be decentralized. Um, and so.

• 2:34:56Shawn Ryan?

  Man, that's even a good point.

• 2:34:58Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:34:58Shawn Ryan?

  Or underground.

• 2:35:00Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, it, it becomes, it becomes freaky real quick. Um.

• 2:35:05Shawn Ryan?

  How fast do you think this all has to happen?

• 2:35:08Speaker 01

  China's doing it real fast. So like they released a boat, I think in January. It's a commercial cargo ship that has containerized munitions. That means you have like a Conex box, like a shipping container that can launch anti-ship missiles. So you don't know if that shipping container's on.

• 2:35:25Shawn Ryan?

  Holy shit.

• 2:35:26Speaker 01

  An 18 wheeler. You don't know if that shipping container's on a random cargo ship. You look at ports and you've got hundreds of thousands.

• 2:35:31Shawn Ryan?

  They have the biggest, it's like 95%? No, it's, I'm sorry. It's 50% of the world's shipbuilding capacity is in fucking China. And we have, what, less than 1%?

• 2:35:41Speaker 01

  Crazy. Now.

• 2:35:43Shawn Ryan?

  Holy shit.

• 2:35:44Speaker 01

  I will, I will actually, I will say, I don't worry that much about that.

• 2:35:47Shawn Ryan?

  And my argument was, I wouldn't even say it's an argument. I mean, I remember having this exact conversation with Dino Mavrukas from Serrano and Palmer from Andurall. You know, now my, my big thing was, I mean, what, yeah, but what kind of ships are they building? Are they just building fucking cargo ships? Are they building shells? I mean, yeah, they could turn that into something, but then you're talking about these fucking shipping containers. And it's like, oh shit, like it's a, it's a fucking destroyer in disguise.

• 2:36:15Speaker 01

  It is. It is. But even that, I think is too centralized. Like if an actual conflict starts, you're taking those out pretty quickly. Cause you're talking about, I mean, the, the missiles to, to take that ship out will cost a few hundred thousand dollars.

• 2:36:30Shawn Ryan?

  Well, yeah. I mean, may, maybe we take them out, maybe we don't. I mean, do we have the? But look at, I don't, I don't think that, I don't think the people have the heart to take it out. Cause you can't tell which ones are good and which ones are bad. I mean, we just got a small taste of that. With the boats coming from Venezuela and you saw everybody get up in arms because we killed some fucking drug dealers. You know, now we got Chinese cargo ships, 50% of the world's ships all over the fucking place. You can't tell which ones are, which ones are

• 2:37:02Speaker 01

  That's a great point.

• 2:37:03Shawn Ryan?

  neutral and which ones are bad guys. And so you gotta take them all out. Well, there goes a shit ton of civilians.

• 2:37:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, you're right.

• 2:37:11Shawn Ryan?

  Fucking genius. If you think about it.

• 2:37:14Speaker 01

  It is. And the US is doing the same thing.

• 2:37:17Shawn Ryan?

  We are?

• 2:37:18Speaker 01

  We are.

• 2:37:20Speaker 01

  We are. Now, I don't know if we're doing it as quickly and certainly not at the same scale, but we need to be. But the big thing that has to happen is on the defensive, you have to decentralize. Like, you have to make it such that if you know one of these ten ships has these missiles on it, there's nothing militarily in striking distance that it all falls apart so quickly. And this is why I've been so worried about this for so long. And I'm not saying I have the answers. I'm saying I'm developing assets that I think will be helpful in this future world. I can't tell you what a force structure actually needs to look like when this.

• 2:37:57Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, it's just wild. And then you think about all the bases that we've given up.

• 2:38:00Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:38:01Shawn Ryan?

  Bagram being various. I mean, it's still centralized, but I mean, you know what I'm saying? Like, even like, now we're just consolidating, what, we're back here at the homeland, where we could have had, gave up a ton of bases in Europe, all the bases in Afghanistan, all the bases in Iraq. I mean, it's so, at least it was somewhat decentralized. Now, it's, I mean, we're probably more centralized right now than we have been since World War II.

• 2:38:33Speaker 01

  That's true. And so, we need to be working on ways of offensive and defensive assets being decentralized. Like, you have to get back into doing that. And I mean, that's why I talk a lot about the stratosphere is the range at which you can deploy these things allows you to act more forward. And then, hopefully, we find ways of doing it where you don't rely on a base to launch these assets. Like, there's nothing inherent about Viper that would require any actual fixed assets in a country you're fighting in.

• 2:39:08Shawn Ryan?

  Man.

• 2:39:12Shawn Ryan?

  You've really got me thinking now.

• 2:39:16Shawn Ryan?

  This just looks talking.

• 2:39:19Shawn Ryan?

  I know nothing.

• 2:39:22Speaker 01

  That's not true. Um, no, that's not true.

• 2:39:25Shawn Ryan?

  I'm not scared of it. I'm, I'm, I'm admitting it's the, the old way is done. It's complete. It's over. It would be, in my opinion, it's almost detrimental to be even. Uh, maybe I won't say that, but it could, I mean, it's.

• 2:39:42Shawn Ryan?

  Talking to an old guy like me who's used to the old way may be detrimental to the future. Because it's, it's, it's so hard to switch thinking.

• 2:39:50Speaker 01

  It is. Now, the advantage is we're not gonna go from the world we have today to this different world instantly. And so the, the easy part is actually talking about the way things should be. The hard part is, is morphing the current fighting force into the way things should be. And that's where that discourse is incredibly valuable. Like, how do we? How do we bite off 1% a day on, on, on, on getting ourselves towards this future? Because the, the other thing is like, we just sit around talking about this, but don't have any actuals of, of how we get there. Cause the issue is.

• 2:40:26Speaker 01

  And, and you know this better than I do. None of these assets operate in a vacuum. So I could go and ship 10,000 Vipers, but if no one can train on them, if they don't plug into existing like command and control, that's useless. And so the real art of it is like, define what the future looks like. But the, the real art of it is like, how do you have, have taste and tact in the way that you morph our force structure over the next few years? And that does.

• 2:40:54Shawn Ryan?

  How do you start?

• 2:40:57Speaker 01

  You start. I mean, you start by, by buying more of these, these systems and I, obviously I'm, I have a conflict of interest saying that. And so everyone should take that with a grain of salt. But I also started this company because I believed in the importance of doing that. And so. But you, you need to start by building the industrial base.

• 2:41:15Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, where do you store them? Where do you, I mean, and I'm not even talking about your products. I'm talking about. Locations.

• 2:41:22Speaker 01

  Locations, I mean.

• 2:41:24Shawn Ryan?

  You know, major bases, Fort Bragg, Clarksville.

• 2:41:27Speaker 01

  They're not that hard to store.

• 2:41:29Shawn Ryan?

  Camp Pendleton.

• 2:41:30Speaker 01

  They're not, I don't think they're.

• 2:41:32Shawn Ryan?

  You know what I mean, though?

• 2:41:33Speaker 01

  For sure, for sure.

• 2:41:35Shawn Ryan?

  Massive amount of personnel. I'm not even talking about unmanned systems. I'm talking about decentralizing fucking everything. You know, Norfolk, Virginia, San Diego, California, biggest fucking two naval bases in the country. You know what I mean? How do you decentralize all of this shit?

• 2:41:50Speaker 01

  It's hard, it's hard.

• 2:41:51Shawn Ryan?

  That's a lot of new land buying. That's a lot of new infrastructure. That's ripping out old shit. What do you do with the old, it's, it's, it's a complete revamp.

• 2:42:00Speaker 01

  It is. And what I, what I will say, something that, that gives me, gives me confidence is, is nuclear deterrence is still strong. And so you, you don't have to worry as much about massive threats on US soil. It's, it's in areas of proxy war where it gets really, really dangerous. So if you're Lithuania, thinking about this, you need to be thinking very, very, very deeply about decentralization, right? For the US, fortunately, we do have, we do have nuclear deterrence.

• 2:42:30Shawn Ryan?

  We also have the dome coming supposedly.

• 2:42:33Speaker 01

  We do. And the dome, the dome will be good for certain assets and not good for other assets. So like you're talking about long range hypersonics, the dome's going to be great. When you're talking about 200 quads that launched from some random shipping container that made its way into the country, the dome's not going to do anything in its current form. Now, I would argue the dome should do something and that's something we should expand. And I'm also not saying the hypersonics problem isn't something we need to work on. But at least for the, the things you and I are talking about right now, like the dome's architected with, with space-based interceptors mostly. The dome's not going to take out a quad that randomly emerges that, that some Chinese foreign national launches 10 miles from a naval base.

• 2:43:20Shawn Ryan?

  Wow.

• 2:43:22Shawn Ryan?

  So even that before it's even fully developed is fucking almost obsolete.

• 2:43:29Speaker 01

  It's just solving a different problem.

• 2:43:33Speaker 01

  I don't think it's solving the most important problem. It is solving a real problem. But it potentially, I mean, you're you're intercepting hypersonics, which is a super important problem. Because what that does is at least buys you time because these other assets, you're you're in a more like protected war.

• 2:43:54Speaker 01

  But yeah, it's it's certainly not a cure all.

• 2:43:59Shawn Ryan?

  Wow. When we're talking, when you're talking about putting a payload on these systems, are you designing the payload? Or are you using stuff that's already in existence?

• 2:44:07Speaker 01

  So we we have partners that we co-designed payloads with right now. Um, so the actual warhead is sort of designed specifically for our platform and manufactured elsewhere.

• 2:44:18Shawn Ryan?

  Gotcha.

• 2:44:19Speaker 01

  That's that's kind of one of the only portions and there's a world where we end up producing that ourselves someday, too. The the legislations and the regulations surrounding building warheads is horrible. Like, I can go build composites without going to the ATF or other people.

• 2:44:39Shawn Ryan?

  Oh, man. Wow.

• 2:44:44Shawn Ryan?

  I love these kind of conversations. Are you going to build any guns?

• 2:44:48Speaker 01

  As a company?

• 2:44:49Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah.

• 2:44:50Speaker 01

  I'd love to. I'd love to.

• 2:44:54Shawn Ryan?

  What would you build?

• 2:44:55Speaker 01

  What would I build? That's a good question.

• 2:45:01Speaker 01

  It's actually not when I think about that much. I don't think we're going to build guns. If I was going to build a gun.

• 2:45:09Speaker 01

  The big problem right now is body armor. Finding ways to to get through body armor. Um. Yeah, I'm not. I'm not gonna give a good answer. Let me think through the problem a little bit. I think, one, you've got to have significantly like this is where Andrel's actually doing incredible work. Like, I don't know if you've seen their eagle eye stuff, but like.

• 2:45:26Shawn Ryan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 2:45:27Speaker 01

  It's pretty good.

• 2:45:28Shawn Ryan?

  He came and talked about for the first time here.

• 2:45:30Speaker 01

  That's great.

• 2:45:31Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah.

• 2:45:31Speaker 01

  That's awesome. Um, so I think.

• 2:45:34Shawn Ryan?

  I gave you some stuff to think about. It was awesome. It's a great fucking conversation.

• 2:45:38Speaker 01

  That's awesome.

• 2:45:38Shawn Ryan?

  Talked about hostage rescue.

• 2:45:40Speaker 01

  Nice.

• 2:45:40Shawn Ryan?

  How could you? How could you identify the hostage? Because that would speed up the. That would speed up the action.

• 2:45:47Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:45:48Shawn Ryan?

  Uh, tremendously.

• 2:45:49Speaker 01

  I I think the the biggest. The biggest failure of these new gun systems start history is that you actually step too far forward. You have too much technology and you you pack too much into it. Um, I like the hypervelocity projectile work. Anyway, there's there's a lot of times that's been done. And so I I I would be. You got to have some level of increased intelligence, like your your rifle or your optic has to be able to talk to drones. You've got to be able to talk to each other on the actual projectile side. I wouldn't get into auto aiming or any of that stuff. I would. I think.

• 2:46:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think there's a long ways you could push. I mean, like the XM five XM seven. I know they've changed the name, but. I actually don't hate the steel casing. Like steel is not that hard to manufacture. If it gets you that much more muzzle velocity, go for it. Um, I do have an issue with the recoil, especially.

• 2:46:44Shawn Ryan?

  Steel casing gets you more muzzle velocity?

• 2:46:46Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 2:46:46Shawn Ryan?

  I had no idea.

• 2:46:48Speaker 01

  Because you you get higher chamber pressure. Which is super useful. And so the the new the new combat rifle is actually partially steel, partially brass casing.

• 2:46:56Shawn Ryan?

  Which rifle?

• 2:46:58Speaker 01

  Uh, XM five XM seven. I forget which of the two. It was one and then changed to the other. I think it's the XM five.

• 2:47:02Shawn Ryan?

  Are you talking about the spear?

• 2:47:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:47:04Shawn Ryan?

  The SIG spear?

• 2:47:05Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 2:47:05Shawn Ryan?

  You like it?

• 2:47:09Speaker 01

  I don't, I don't know enough about it. Um, my cousin's at West Point. He shot it. He wasn't a huge fan.

• 2:47:14Shawn Ryan?

  Oh, yeah?

• 2:47:16Speaker 01

  I think, one, I think they're having pretty bad reliability issues. And then two, I do think, I, I think it's too, too big of a round right now for, it's, it's, it's a force, anyway, I don't know.

• 2:47:28Shawn Ryan?

  They have, they have a 6.8, a 5.56, and a 300 blackout.

• 2:47:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, so I think, I think somewhere between, I, even the, the 6.8's big for a lot of stuff.

• 2:47:40Shawn Ryan?

  And I shot the piss out of this. Seems pretty fucking reliable.

• 2:47:42Speaker 01

  And I'll, I'll trust you on it. I'll trust you on it. Like, see, this is not, this is not my, my.

• 2:47:46Shawn Ryan?

  Well, actually, I got, I got a little something for you.

• 2:47:50Shawn Ryan?

  But, I don't know if it's gonna be reliable enough for you, but.

• 2:47:55Speaker 01

  Holy fuck.

• 2:47:57Shawn Ryan?

  It's been pretty reliable to me. So that's the, uh, 6.8 MCX spear from Sig Sauer. I told him you were covered, and they got all fucking fired up about it. So, they wanted me to give this to you. And then, uh, yeah, my buddy Jason over at Sig, he's a fucking huge fan of you. And then, uh, I got some buddies at Silencer Shop too, so they're gonna, uh,

• 2:48:23Shawn Ryan?

  put a suppressor up there for you. And Sig put this optic on her, so, I don't know, maybe we should go test it now.

• 2:48:29Speaker 01

  Let's go test it. I think, I think hearsay says a lot. Let's go. I love this. Let's go test it. Uh.

• 2:48:36Shawn Ryan?

  That's the 6.8. 6.8.

• 2:48:39Speaker 01

  That's, thank you so much.

• 2:48:41Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, man.

• 2:48:42Speaker 01

  I really, holy cow. And I do love that Sig's getting into optics. Like, that, anyway, uh, I, that's so sick. Thank you.

• 2:48:50Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, man.

• 2:48:51Speaker 01

  I really appreciate it. And I am sure I will take back everything I said after shooting.

• 2:48:57Speaker 01

  Um, and it is.

• 2:48:57Shawn Ryan?

  Let's go make sure it is reliable. You wanna take a break?

• 2:49:00Speaker 01

  Let's do it.

• 2:49:01Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, let's go fucking break it in. Cool.

• 2:49:05Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 2:49:06Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, you're welcome.

• 2:49:10Shawn Ryan?

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• 2:51:52Shawn Ryan?

  Well, what'd you think?

• 2:51:53Speaker 01

  I'm a convert. Yeah, I had the 365 and I had the Spear, two of my favorite guns and obviously, or the Rattler, not the Spear. Um, two of my favorite guns. I couldn't shoot the Spear. I never had a Spear in. So you hear all these YouTube videos where people are complaining about the recoil and I, I took that at face value, which I shouldn't have. It's not bad. I mean recoil compared to a 223 is not noticeable. Um, and then it didn't jam a single time. And so, small sample size, good reliability.

• 2:52:21Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah. It's interesting how, uh, not everything on YouTube is true.

• 2:52:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, and I'm embarrassed for falling for it. So thanks for, thanks for showing me.

• 2:52:28Shawn Ryan?

  How do you like that Rattler?

• 2:52:30Speaker 01

  I love it. I love it. I can't, I didn't bring it with me to California. So I only had it for a few months back in Texas, but.

• 2:52:36Shawn Ryan?

  Did you put a suppressor on it?

• 2:52:37Speaker 01

  I didn't. This is my first, I've never had a suppressor.

• 2:52:40Shawn Ryan?

  You've never had a suppressor?

• 2:52:41Speaker 01

  No.

• 2:52:43Shawn Ryan?

  Silencer shop's about to pop your cherry. Right on, man. But, uh, yeah, I want to get, I've been telling Jason, I'm like, dude, send me one of these fucking Rattlers. Cause that's been out for a long time. I want, I want it for home defense. But, uh.

• 2:52:57Speaker 01

  It's, it's good. I mean, it's, I don't know if they're all chambered in 300 blackout. Mine's chambered in 300 blackout. It's great. I mean, it folds so small. Cause I got the short barrel without a suppressor.

• 2:53:06Shawn Ryan?

  Oh, nice.

• 2:53:06Speaker 01

  It's like this big.

• 2:53:07Shawn Ryan?

  Nice.

• 2:53:08Speaker 01

  I love that thing.

• 2:53:10Shawn Ryan?

  Well, you're a pretty damn good shooter.

• 2:53:13Speaker 01

  Thank you. I appreciate it. You won. I, I went 0 for 12 on the 44.

• 2:53:18Shawn Ryan?

  Barely, man. And plus I'm a former SEAL and a CIA contractor, so I should fucking beat it. I should have really kicked your ass, but I didn't. And, uh, that was the, taking it easy. I'm just out of it. But, uh, dude, that was fun. Thanks for doing that.

• 2:53:33Speaker 01

  Thanks for doing that. I love that, that suppress 22.

• 2:53:35Shawn Ryan?

  Cool.

• 2:53:36Speaker 01

  It's good.

• 2:53:37Shawn Ryan?

  Cool. But, um, yeah, so we, I don't even, we're, we just got done wrapping up, uh, kind of talking about all the products that you're making and, um. But one thing we didn't talk about is, you know, you went from Boston to Austin, right?

• 2:53:53Speaker 01

  Did.

• 2:53:53Shawn Ryan?

  And then Austin to?

• 2:53:56Speaker 01

  To Huntington.

• 2:53:57Shawn Ryan?

  Huntington Beach? Why did you move from Austin? Because Austin's supposedly like a pretty, it's like the new tech hub, right?

• 2:54:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's what they say. Um, I moved from Boston to Austin because I like Texas. I think Texas is a great business environment. I'm obviously from Texas, really wanted the company to be there. It's probably different for different engineering domains. Like if you're writing software or if you're doing pure mechanical, I'm sure, I'm sure it's actually quite good. The issue is for a lot of our stuff, for all the niche things like niche RF, niche propulsion, niche GNC. For the real aerospace stuff, it's still LA. So we had like an applicant tracking software. Across like six months, it was like 95 plus percent of our sort of interesting candidates were all LA based. So then for like, yeah, yeah.

• 2:54:44Shawn Ryan?

  Ninety-five percent?

• 2:54:45Speaker 01

  It was crazy. And so, I mean, for three months, I wanted to validate the assumption. So for three months, I'd fly to LA every Sunday. I'd fly out Saturday night, fly back Sunday night and take like 10 interviews and basically got a good sample size in those three months of people saying like, yes, I would a hundred percent join the company, but I'm not moving my family to Austin, especially back then. Keep in mind, we had like very, very little funding. We had no real products. It's already hard enough to hire. And so if you're suddenly having to convince people to uproot their entire families and move across two time zones, it's tough. So moved to LA and it was a hundred percent the right decision. Like the company would not be in business today if not for doing that. It was hard. It was hard to convince people to leave and obviously I miss Texas, but.

• 2:55:28Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, I'm just curious, you know, with all this new tax, tax, potential tax, I think it's, is it passed? Potential tax implications in California. Do you think you'll move the business again?

• 2:55:38Speaker 01

  I may have to move myself. I mean, the thing is, the business has several locations. So like we have folks in DC, we have folks in Austin, our next big factory won't be in California.

• 2:55:48Shawn Ryan?

  Okay.

• 2:55:49Speaker 01

  And so it's, it's really just our engineering headquarters that's in Huntington. But I forget the exact tax, but you're, the taxes on unrealized capital gains, right? And so I think there's this misconception about people who start companies that they have this like vault.

• 2:56:02Shawn Ryan?

  Hmm, I see what you're saying.

• 2:56:04Speaker 01

  With all their money in it. When, when you look like, when you achieve liquidity, maybe that's somewhat true.

• 2:56:11Shawn Ryan?

  I see what you're saying.

• 2:56:12Speaker 01

  But for a majority of these companies, I mean, you, you think about.

• 2:56:14Shawn Ryan?

  You're raising capital.

• 2:56:15Speaker 01

  You're raising capital. I mean, I, I'm, I'm making a very small salary. I've taken zero dollars off the table. I don't have money to pay taxes. And so if I got hit with 5% tax on the, the current value of MACH, we don't have that liquidity. Like I, I would have to go to jail to pay that money.

• 2:56:31Shawn Ryan?

  Gotcha.

• 2:56:32Speaker 01

  Um, so no, I, I mean, I would have no choice but to, to spend 50 plus percent of my time elsewhere. And then there are two concerning things that they're also trying to do. One is where you're taxed based on days spent in California. Um, that's already the way a lot of California taxes work. So even if I only spent a month running my company in California, I would still owe 1/12 of my tax in California, which if it's on, if it's on your kind of high level, like unrealized capital gains, that's massive. Specifically for starting companies. And then the other crazy thing is they're talking about doing it based on voting share and not based on ownership.

• 2:57:10Shawn Ryan?

  What does that, what does that even mean?

• 2:57:12Speaker 01

  At a lot of companies, um, you basically have people who own certain share classes that allow them to vote more than they actually own.

• 2:57:20Shawn Ryan?

  Okay.

• 2:57:20Speaker 01

  So there's a separation between how much control you have over the company versus how much ownership you have over the company. So MACH is one of these companies where I, I, I do control the company, but I own at this point, like not that much of the company. Well, I get taxed based on the control I have over the company and not based on my actual worth, which is crazy.

• 2:57:39Shawn Ryan?

  What?

• 2:57:41Speaker 01

  They're talking about it. I, I, I don't think any of this is going to pass because it would literally shut down the California economy. But it would, it would kill, it would kill anyone trying to do stuff like I'm doing.

• 2:57:52Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, didn't they lose like a trillion dollars in Silicon Valley in like a week?

• 2:57:56Speaker 01

  Crazy, crazy.

• 2:57:58Shawn Ryan?

  It's fucking wild, man.

• 2:58:00Speaker 01

  And it's theirs. I mean, it's theirs to fuck up, right? Cause you've got, you've got great talent. Like there's a reason I had to move out there. There's a reason Silicon Valley is still Silicon Valley. It's, it's an excellent place to, to, to build a company. But you, you pass something like that once and it's done. And it's not, it's not like I'm opposed to being taxed. I create like, I'll, I'll say this and a bunch of people would disagree with me. Like I actually do think that generally speaking billionaires should pay more taxes. Not tax rate, not tax rate. There's something that happens, which is that you can get leverage based on your equity. So at a certain point, not, not, not at my point, but at a certain point, you can take out a loan against your equity and never pay taxes on the loan. And this is how, this is how people get around massive amounts of taxes. It's like, sure, when I sell shares, I'll owe X percent tax, but I never actually sell

• 2:58:45Speaker 01

  shares. I take out a loan against the shares and then provided the business keeps going up in value, I just take out new loans to pay that off against my equity. And so it's this crazy mechanism people use to get around taxes, which is, I, I do think it's broken. Like I, I think our, our tax code should be, should be massively simplified to avoid stuff like that. But the way to fix it is to fix that problem. The way to fix it is not to impose this giant other thing that doesn't fix that problem, but creates this whole different problem, which is that like people, I mean, people can't go and, and get liquidity on this equity. Like it's just physically impossible to pay this.

• 2:59:20Shawn Ryan?

  No shit. Damn. Well, are you worried about our currency? The dollar?

• 2:59:28Speaker 01

  I'd say so. I'd say so. Um, yeah, look, I think a, a, a large portion of US way of life is that we live in a surplus, right? We'll go and spend $7 trillion a year and, and only bring in $4.9 trillion a year in taxes. And the only way you can, you can afford to do that is if there's foreign, or if there's demand, generally speaking, for your debt, right? And so that's, we're massively overspending, which is broken. Obviously, if you have an imbalanced budget for too long, debt compounds and bad things happen. But generally speaking, if people want your debt and if your economy is growing faster than your debt is, then it's, it's not an issue.

• 3:00:10Speaker 01

  The way, the way this happens is you, anyway, you sell bonds, so you.

• 3:00:16Shawn Ryan?

  Keep going.

• 3:00:18Speaker 01

  No, it's, it's good. I'm, I'm trying to think about how, how to break down the problem. So we, we run.

• 3:00:27Speaker 01

  We sell fewer goods than we bring in, right? So if you're China and I'm America, I'm giving you a hundred dollars. You're giving me a hundred dollars worth of goods. And then maybe I'm giving you fifty dollars of goods and you're giving me fifty dollars back. You run basically an imbalanced trade. And so because of that, there's massive, basically excess dollars and there's demand for these dollars. And so what the US government will do is it'll actually go and buy the dollars back and issue debt. Where this is all a bond is, obviously, right? I'll buy the hundred bucks.

• 3:00:57Speaker 01

  And then over time, I'll pay it back with interest. And then at the end, I'll pay back the full amount. And so

• 3:01:05Speaker 01

  foreign countries have trillions of dollars of US treasuries. And that's, that's how, there are a bunch of different ways that the dollar became basically the global reserve currency. But it is, it is very structurally important for a number of different reasons that other countries trade in dollars. So like one is it actually gives you the ability to, to freeze people's funds. And to, it directly actually ties to geopolitical power. And this is actually one of the things that's weakening is when the Ukraine war kicked off, we started freezing. We started freezing assets that other countries held. Right? And, and so that's obviously an incredible power as a country. What happened when we did that is that other countries got uncomfortable with the ability of the US to do that. We weaponized our currency.

• 3:01:49Speaker 01

  We weaponized it, which, which is why you are the global reserve currency. And the, the idea of a global reserve currency is not a new thing. Like Roman Empire, Dutch Empire, British Empire. There's, there's like a very famous trend of basically becoming the global currency. And that's actually one of the best ways to assess if you're living in, in an era, in an era where an empire is in power. But what tends to happen over, over history is one,

• 3:02:16Speaker 01

  if the money printing machine becomes closely tied to the people making the decisions that are elected, there's incentive to run.

• 3:02:26Speaker 01

  Basically, there's incentives to push debt. Like, if I'm running for election and I'm printing money to make your life better, usually indirectly, that's a good thing and I'm gonna get elected. And this starts to tie into populism of sort of short-term thinking with elected officials, who are like structurally incentivized to be able to do that. Now, fortunately, those powers are held separately in the US, which has helped for a while, but there's starting to be pressures sort of between them, which is quite concerning. But what happened for these previous empires is you suddenly just have an incentive. If I'm only in power for 10 years, these macroeconomic effects take decades to play out typically. And these have been playing out since we dropped the gold standard. This is kind of, this era has started. And at this point, our debt is so huge.

• 3:03:11Speaker 01

  We're paying more on interest on our debt than we are on national security. So like, the amount of bonds we're issuing and the amount of debt we owe people is more than we pay on national security. And then, our debt is also growing quicker than our economy. And so if your debt's growing quicker than your economy, the problem, this is, it's obviously very simple things I'm saying, which you'd think would make it simple outcomes to fix, but it gets nuanced pretty quick. But if your debt is growing quicker than your economy, and if you're running an imbalanced budget where you're taking on new debt to pay for your debt, you get into this debt spend cycle where you can't pay it off.

• 3:03:52Speaker 01

  Now, the thing that makes that worse is then if suddenly, kind of, two things happen. One is if you weaponize your debt to too great of a degree. I don't know if we did that or not in Ukraine. Like, I'm not informed on this topic enough to say. But we did weaponize our debt, and because of that, other countries started selling our debt. Well, once that starts, once the demand for your... Your bonds goes down, you have to raise basically interest rates on those bonds to get that same demand. So your debt becomes more expensive. And so the debt you're using to pay for your debt becomes more expensive.

• 3:04:25Shawn Ryan?

  Good.

• 3:04:26Speaker 01

  While that happens, you're losing more confidence. So you're having to take on more debt to pay for that debt. And so I forget the exact number, but I think the top five biggest foreign US debt holders have sold something like $400 billion of debt in the last 18 months. And they're trading it for gold. And that's like a very, very clear thing you can point to of getting off the US dollar as the global reserve currency. People get doomsday here pretty quick. I think this is not in the same camp of problems as the Taiwan problem, but fiscal responsibility is something we have to take incredibly seriously. Because what's happening is we're getting ourselves into a debt like spin cycle, like $38 trillion in debt. That means like, on average, it's something stupid like $113,000

• 3:05:06Speaker 01

  of debt per person in the country that our government owes elsewhere. And so then you just start looking at interest payments on that debt. And talking about thousands of person, thousands of dollars per person per year for this interest. And so US growth has largely been built on this debt. You're basically borrowing against your future. And that's a great instrument. I'm not, I'm not saying we, we shouldn't have debt. Like financial systems exist for a reason. But where this all leads to is there's this really scary effect right now, where there are all these foreign powers that hold US debt, that if they decide to, to sell, can create basically a run cycle on debt where the value instantly

• 3:05:45Speaker 01

  drops. And so then to, anyway, it's, and it's, it's, it's kind of a pinch maneuver, because we, we also have, we have an incentive right now to, to devalue the dollar. Sorry, I'm going way off.

• 3:06:01Shawn Ryan?

  I'm, I'm paying attention.

• 3:06:03Speaker 01

  So there's actually, one of the things Trump kind of ran on, that I do actually, generally speaking, agree with, is that if we want to rebuild American manufacturing capability, we have to devalue the dollar. And there are a bunch of different ways to do that. But if, if you and I are trading and my, my dollar is more valuable than your, your currency, euro or anything else. Trade will generally go to you, right? And US domestic businesses will struggle to compete. And so if you go and devalue the dollar, US businesses can do better. Now, the issue is that has to be combined with actual economic growth. So if you start devaluing the dollar while you're not growing economically,

• 3:06:48Speaker 01

  you're basically reaping the poor effects of hyperinflation without economic stimulus. And so that's where you get into what's called stagflation, which is one of the worst, sort of worst things that can happen to an economy, is your economy is not growing because typically inflation is tied to economic growth. If our economy is not growing at the same time that all these foreign countries start mass selling debt. And it's some of our allies, like Japan's the biggest holder of US debt, and they've started selling for different reasons. Obviously, China is selling a ton of US debt. But this, this can accelerate very, very quickly, where you get basically the equivalent of a bank run on US debt. And if the dollar, as the global reserve currency collapses,

• 3:07:30Speaker 01

  it, it spells sort of massive, massive doom for, for our economy. And so it's just, it's something we need to be looking out for. It's one of the big reasons Doge existed. They made the, the biggest possible push they could to balance the budget. It kind of ran into a political wall because of course, if you're, if you're getting, if you're getting elected, you're, you're not incentivized to go devalue the dollar. Right? You're not incentivized to stop the money printing machine. And so one of, one of the structural issues when you run into short sighted thinking, which right now is a ton of politics, right? Because people, people are incentivized to think on four to six year timelines.

• 3:08:14Speaker 01

  As no one is actually incentivized to go and fix the root of this, this problem. So anyway, that's, that's one of the things that I just think is, is really, really important to think about. One, like our, our, our stock market growth, if you actually go and separate out, the devaluation of the dollar is not incredibly impressive. Anyway, this is not my domain. I'm, I'm probably making myself sound like an idiot, but I, I do think it's something we need to be taking.

• 3:08:38Shawn Ryan?

  I've never heard it broken down like that before. I think you're doing great.

• 3:08:41Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 3:08:42Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah. What do you think about BRICS?

• 3:08:45Speaker 01

  I think it's scary. Look, I think fortunately, right now, there's not a great other option. Like, you see a push towards decentralization instead of a general push towards the yuan or other things, and that is because the dollar, the dollar is still pretty singular in its value, but I think what we can start to expect is trade on other currencies to increase pretty radically. I worry less about it than I do about the US debt problem, and they're tied. They're tied, but the real scary thing starts, real scary things start to happen when the cost of our budget imbalance gets more expensive.

• 3:09:21Shawn Ryan?

  You know, one thing you said that I, it's just not clicking in my head is the devaluing the dollar should bring in more business. I don't understand the correlation there.

• 3:09:31Speaker 01

  More foreign business.

• 3:09:33Shawn Ryan?

  More foreign business. Why? Why would a devalued dollar bring in more foreign business?

• 3:09:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, so if you're trying to-

• 3:09:38Shawn Ryan?

  Because they can buy more?

• 3:09:40Speaker 01

  Because your stuff is cheaper on foreign markets. So if you're trying to achieve-

• 3:09:45Shawn Ryan?

  Wouldn't prices just go up?

• 3:09:47Speaker 01

  In the US, they do. So in the US, prices go up, and this is why it's a really tough thing to talk about. And in the US, prices go up. In foreign markets, US goods are cheaper. It's a similar, it's a similar effect to tariffs. It's a different way to achieve what you do with tariffs, right? If, and this is on production for other countries, tariffs is obviously production for domestic markets. They're both instruments to achieve the same thing, which is basically you're making, you're making things more expensive in the US. You're actually making US labor cheaper, but because of that, there's more demand for your goods, so you start producing more. And so it's, there's no, there's no free lunch in economics, right? And so there's, there's advantages and disadvantages to all

• 3:10:32Speaker 01

  of these different things. Like, if your economy is going to compound like crazy, there are advantages to a very strong dollar and to a lot of debt, because you can live sort of beyond your means. And that's what we've been doing for a while. Now, if you truly want to stimulate the economy, if you really, really, really want to get back to-

• 3:10:52Speaker 01

  A trade surplus, your goods have to get cheaper. And there are kind of two ways to make your goods cheaper. You can either innovate, or you can devalue the dollar or do tariffs or other things. You can use economic levers, or you can use innovation. I'm obviously a much bigger fan of the former.

• 3:11:08Speaker 01

  But the US has been living so far on the right side of that for so long, and our economy hasn't kept up. And again, all you're doing with this debt is sort of borrowing against your future in some way. And what happens if debt starts to compound is the price of new debt goes up significantly. So if there's less demand for the bonds, you have to raise the price on the bonds. And suddenly your debt becomes significantly more expensive. And the reason that's scary is because we're nowhere close to a balanced budget.

• 3:11:39Speaker 01

  Shit. And in many ways, for good reason. Like, I won't, I won't say the US shouldn't have ever taken this approach. You just can't push it too far. And then if you are going to push it, you're playing with fire. If you are going to push it that far, you better have economic growth. And so the real scary thing that happens here is if we're counting on all of this economic growth, specifically because of AI and the AI bubble bursts, right when the rest of this is happening,

• 3:12:06Speaker 01

  right when you go and weaponize the dollar, so there's, there's less demand for the dollar. The US treasuries are not seen as as stable of a, of a holding. Right when a lot of our allies, for a number of different reasons, are pushing away from globalization and away from reliance on the US. Like, that's, that's one of the major reasons people are selling is lack of trust in, in the US as an institution, both geopolitically and just in terms of the, the actual general function of our economy. And so if you get, if you get lack of confidence in the dollar while you're trying to run this playbook, which we very much are right now, really, really bad things happen and you run into just spiraling massively inflationary

• 3:12:46Speaker 01

  cycles. And that's, that's how empires have failed historically. Like, this is a very well-studied thing. I think the solution is, one, you've got to start innovating. Like, you, you do just have to grow the economy and you have to stay away from...

• 3:13:00Speaker 01

  You have to stay away from incredibly negative hype cycle fueled boom bust cycles. Two, you have to reinforce, you have to reinforce trust in the, in the US government. Right? Like you, you, if you're battling the rest of this, you can't have people selling because they don't trust us to be good stewards of the world. I mean, I don't know how the hell we reestablish that. Yeah, it's, it's gonna be a long path, I think. I really, how do you think we reestablish trust? I think people want to trust the US. Like, we are a democratic capitalist society, facing an authoritarian, in many ways communist society.

• 3:13:44Speaker 01

  Like, all things being equal, the world will choose the US every single time. I think, one, anyway, I, I, I like to avoid talking about things that I'm, I'm not an expert in. If I'm, if, if it's, if it's me, though, I think, one, you have to bring, you have to bring allies closer, which is different than not expecting them to pay their fair share. And that's like, very difficult to strike the balance on. But you, you, you have to be seen as this reliable force. Europe does need to increase defense spending, like NATO absolutely needs to increase defense spending.

• 3:14:25Speaker 01

  But you, you, you can't be doing things, you know, you, you, you can't be doing things that erode trust in us to act rationally. And then you, you have to, you have to take a tariff policy that is sort of slow and deliberate. I do think we need tariffs. I do think we need to devalue the, the dollar. If we ever want to be a manufacturing superpower, we just have to reach that spot. You need, you need to reinforce belief that the dollar will continue as an institution, right? You need to balance the debt. You need to find ways to, to, to, to cut spending and to, to increase, um, tax revenues. Now, I, I, again, I think the tax, I'm, I'm.

• 3:15:10Speaker 01

  I'm struggling to communicate well. I think we have a lot of bad policy. And I think we have a lot of bad regulation. And so something that started happening is you roll. You roll all of these policies into these sort of super bills. Where if you're voting on something, you can't vote on an issue.

• 3:15:28Shawn Ryan?

  Singular issue.

• 3:15:29Speaker 01

  In isolation. And so because of that, we end up as this giant averaging function of different things. And then there's. There's actually this structural incentive for bureaucracies to create complexity. So we see this all the time in the defense industry. If you are a defense prime, whose main mote is being able to interface with the government. Making the government more difficult to interface with increases your mote. And then similarly, if you're someone trying to avoid taxes, creating complexities in tax law is actually a huge advantage because you can go and find these different loopholes.

• 3:16:09Speaker 01

  And I think a lot of things are significantly more complex than they need to be. But yeah, I mean, you have to cut spending to start.

• 3:16:21Shawn Ryan?

  What is it that would create a AI bust?

• 3:16:25Speaker 01

  An AI bust? It's. All the cycles look the same.

• 3:16:31Shawn Ryan?

  It's just moving so fucking fast.

• 3:16:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, the cause of a bust is always so much more difficult to tell. I think. I think one of the hyperscalers reaching like real liquidity problems would cause it. I think. Certainly Taiwan falling would cause it or coming into jeopardy would would cause it.

• 3:17:04Speaker 01

  I think big corporate companies tightening their belt. Because right now, we're in a growth cycle. And so if you're, if you're a company X, if you're some tech company, let's say you're Salesforce, your, your investors right now are still generally pushing you to increase innovation instead of cut spending. And so you go through these cycles where like investors care about different things. And right now, I would argue the adoption of these AI systems by a lot of these big corporations are as fueled by perception, are as fueled by wanting investors to think that you're investing in AI as much or more so than the actual capability of the AI itself. Gotcha.

• 3:17:44Speaker 01

  Has. And so if investors start thinking, if, if, if investors, anyway, I don't know. That's the answer. But there are a bunch of different things that I think could cause it. You think we're close?

• 3:18:00Speaker 01

  I don't think so. I think, I think we, we have a few months at least. I think the, I think the work XAI is doing, for instance, is like creating a lot more confidence, like as long as people think the tech is getting better. Because that's what everyone's betting on, like the, the margins right now suck, but everyone's betting on for, for any different number of reasons that the margins will suddenly radically improve and that these companies will start making good money. Someone like Elon saying, hey, we're going to go spend X hundreds of billions of dollars on this new approach on, on hyperscaling satellites in space. Like that actually gives people confidence that there is the next tech wave that will decrease those dollars.

• 3:18:40Speaker 01

  But if people start deciding that it is just super commoditized, that's when the cracks start to emerge. And it's so impossible to tell where in the stack the cracks will emerge. Like it could be, it could be Nvidia.

• 3:18:55Speaker 01

  Anyway, it could be Nvidia missing earnings, it could be one of the hyperscalers having liquidity problems, it could be at the top of the stack, these companies choosing to adopt AI less.

• 3:19:06Speaker 01

  But I think, I think there's still room. But that's not necessarily a good thing. If you're, if you're on a train hurdling at a barrier, it's not, it's not necessarily the most responsible thing to like, hope the train runs further.

• 3:19:21Speaker 01

  Because we do continue to spend money on something that, I don't know, we'll see, I could very much be wrong on the transformer architecture, but.

• 3:19:29Shawn Ryan?

  It's an interesting, it's, I mean, I've just never heard anybody talk about it like that, it's it's good stuff. Do you have any thoughts on social decay in the country? We kind of talked a little bit about it, you know, the beginning with social media. I asked a question, you said, it was about Gen Z and you said, get off social.

• 3:19:48Speaker 01

  I think so. Um. Yeah, I think it's, I think it's a real problem. Um. I think, one, just the, the rise of short form content is just so bad for development of like true thought.

• 3:20:02Shawn Ryan?

  What about politics?

• 3:20:04Speaker 01

  I think it's, I think it's the same.

• 3:20:06Shawn Ryan?

  A single party system?

• 3:20:10Speaker 01

  I don't think an intentionally orchestrated, single party system, but I think in, in many ways, the emergent effect is that.

• 3:20:17Shawn Ryan?

  What do you think it is?

• 3:20:20Speaker 01

  I kind of described, I kind of described it earlier.

• 3:20:22Shawn Ryan?

  Why do you think we're at a single party system?

• 3:20:28Speaker 01

  I think, I think that there are.

• 3:20:35Speaker 01

  I think there are structural reasons. If you're, if you're at.

• 3:20:42Speaker 01

  If you're at the top to create as much division as possible around problems that don't actually matter to get people to understand each other.

• 3:20:51Speaker 01

  I think, I think it actually starts at the bottom. I think people don't spend as much time thinking about first principles policy as they do about personality. Um, I think I am a fan of a two-party system, but I do think a two-party system makes it really tough because you have two options at the end of the day. Um, and so it's, it's really, really hard um to avoid, to avoid problems just becoming massively bucketed. And so it's, it's really hard to go item by item and have like clear conversation about any given item instead of just right or left. I think, I mean, you, you, you brought up Epstein earlier. I mean, I, I do think that

• 3:21:33Speaker 01

  the social circles of both parties at the top actually just massively converge at, at some point. And I think we're seeing that. Like, I, I think, I think, look, I mean, both sides have been equal opportunity to keep that stuff from being released. Um.

• 3:21:47Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, I think you're right. You know, I mean, my thoughts are, I mean, I think one major problem that, uh, that people don't realize is these fuckers in DC never go home. They never go back to their district. They hang out at the same fucking parties. They go to the same restaurants. They go to the same clubs. They work together, you know, and, and because, because they never go home to be with their constituents, they all become friends. And, you know, you think, well, that's not a bad thing. Well, it is kind of a bad thing because when you become friends with all the other fucking politicians, then you won't call each other out on their bullshit because you're friends at the end of the day. And then they learn your secrets, you learn their

• 3:22:32Shawn Ryan?

  secrets, you know what I mean? And then it becomes, ooh, that one was below the belt a little bit because we don't want you to fucking say what I'm doing. You know what I mean?

• 3:22:40Speaker 01

  And one of the terrible, sorry to cut you off.

• 3:22:42Shawn Ryan?

  That, that, and so what happens is, uh, hidden, you know, hidden agendas, corruption and all that because these fuckers won't call each other out because they're all buddies, you know? And so it does, it, it, and, and you're saying, and I agree with you. It's not necessarily, I agree with you somewhat. It's not necessarily orchestrated at the top. I think the top is orchestrated by the DNC and the RNC and who the fuck knows how, how much higher it goes, but.

• 3:23:11Shawn Ryan?

  Maybe it's Epstein, you know what I mean? But, but I mean, at the lower level, Congress, you know, the Senate, you know, these fucking bureaucrats, like, they're all buddies, you know what I mean? They're all but generals, admirals, none of them want to fucking call each other out on their bullshit. Because that, because they're all fucking friends, you know, and I think it's, I think it's pretty much that fucking simple, you know, at the lower levels and then at the upper levels, I mean, you were talking about, um, I can't remember how you worded it, but we were talking about ex- kind of extreme views and, and, and people lose first principles. And but, I mean, it's almost like nowadays, I mean,

• 3:23:53Shawn Ryan?

  it would be interesting to see if somebody came in and actually tried to unify. But, you know, it'd be really hard to do it the way the fucking media is and

• 3:24:04Shawn Ryan?

  because they would lose views and

• 3:24:11Speaker 01

  Two other

• 3:24:12Shawn Ryan?

  So they have to tribalize.

• 3:24:14Speaker 01

  They have to.

• 3:24:15Shawn Ryan?

  The country.

• 3:24:15Speaker 01

  They have to and then

• 3:24:16Shawn Ryan?

  Because then it's just fucking two teams, you know what I mean? And then, and so it's, it's

• 3:24:22Speaker 01

  Yep. Two, two other big things that I worry about on that note, because I think, I think, I think being friends, I think like there's, there's a lot there. I think one I worry a lot about is like these, these blackmail loops that you gotta know exist. Like that's, that's, that's a lot of, I think, covering Epstein stuff up is like, if, if everyone's in a system where one person sees someone else do something bad, that person coerces that person into doing something bad, that person coerces that person into doing something bad. And no one's actually doing it for the right reasons. Everyone's doing it to make a career, right? Everyone's career politicians. You get trapped in these like ossified structures of blackmail that I think you gotta know exists.

• 3:25:08Speaker 01

  Unfortunately, it is like horrible blackmail level stuff like the Epstein stuff like you. You can't even imagine how much people up at the top or blackmail each other over stuff like that. But it's also smaller stuff.

• 3:25:19Speaker 01

  Which is the friend stuff you're describing of like, hey, I I watched you push this through. If if your constituents found out you pushed this through for this favor you did for this person. And so you, there's this spider web of of connections of of friendships and of of coercion.

• 3:25:35Speaker 01

  That make them like it it just becomes super, super difficult to move. And then the second one that's that's pretty terrifying is when when you tie it to economics. Like the amount of money you need in this country to get elected these days means that you have to have a tie to people who are wealthy. Right? And wealth isn't a bad thing whatsoever, but as as people already in power become the deciding factor of who gets in power, you get this self fulfilling super high center of mass.

• 3:26:10Shawn Ryan?

  Do you think that could go away? I just had a conversation about this, a very quick conversation about this with Ro Khanna. And we're talking about the Epstein stuff, but this this subject came up and, you know, he people don't want to call out their donors, you know. I can, I, I mean, I don't know who couldn't understand that fucking sucks, but but, I mean,

• 3:26:38Shawn Ryan?

  the media reports that the the podcast industry is basically what determined the last election. You know, and and

• 3:26:49Shawn Ryan?

  Trump participated, Kamala didn't. She went on like, what, one fucking podcast?

• 3:26:55Speaker 01

  Ask them to edit it all up and

• 3:26:56Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, I mean, so it's it's people, whatever people, and it made a lot of people like me look one sided. But I could fuck get anybody on the other side.

• 3:27:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 3:27:05Shawn Ryan?

  You know, we we invited her, said she was, she did not say she was coming, but

• 3:27:12Shawn Ryan?

  it was looking very promising and then and then nothing. But what so I guess what I'm saying is the internet. In my opinion, seems to maybe have evened the playing field a li- at least a little bit. You know, because the numbers of this fucking crush.

• 3:27:34Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 3:27:34Shawn Ryan?

  Any of those mainstream outlets now. It destroys it. They hate it. And I'm nothing compared to somebody like fucking Rogan. You know what I mean? Like.

• 3:27:45Speaker 01

  I couldn't.

• 3:27:45Shawn Ryan?

  His numbers are probably bigger than all of them put together.

• 3:27:47Speaker 01

  Couldn't agree more. And that's why the work y'all do is so insanely important. And that's.

• 3:27:53Shawn Ryan?

  But they want the fucking money from the donors. You know, because who knows where the fuck that all winds up going? I don't, I don't know, but I.

• 3:28:01Speaker 01

  Yeah. No, I mean, look.

• 3:28:03Shawn Ryan?

  I think just about everybody up there is a piece of shit, if you ask me, but.

• 3:28:07Speaker 01

  The democratite, democratization of information is the, the best thing that will fix this. Now, the, the issue with that is

• 3:28:18Speaker 01

  the social media companies and we, we're on the verge of this happening really, really badly. Um, if, if not for Elon buying X. Um, now, ob- obviously Elon's also a, a, a, a guy. Elon also has his own incentives. And so I'm not saying you're, you're sort of out of the problem, but the issue is you do still have, even though the information's democratized, you do still have people at the top who can pull the strings on viewership and other things.

• 3:28:45Shawn Ryan?

  We just saw that, what?

• 3:28:48Shawn Ryan?

  2020.

• 3:28:49Speaker 01

  Yeah. And so you still, the orchestration just looks different. It's almost harder to decipher. Because you, you can't tell if you're being pushed with your algorithms into thinking a certain way and being shown certain things. You can't tell if, of a certain video that should have gotten 10 million views, got dialed back and only got 200,000 views, right? And so. One, I think for, for guys like y'all.

• 3:29:14Speaker 01

  Getting as close as you can to to actually being truly democratized and escaping that is super, super important. I think too, like, there is a place for regulation in all of this. Like Teddy Roosevelt is probably one of my favorites, not my favorite presidents, because he was a, he is an interesting dude. He was a conservative who had existed at a time when technology was changing like crazy. Like, if you go and read, like, The Jungle is like, probably the best book that highlights this. But you go and read, humanity discovered these new technologies. We had an industrial revolution, and suddenly corporations are sort of run amok in America. Teddy Roosevelt was a conservative, but he wasn't willing to go toe to toe with

• 3:29:58Speaker 01

  the powers that be. And he wasn't willing to to pass regulation to go and bust this stuff up. Like, he, he did some stuff that, as a conservative, is actually pretty, pretty wild. Like, he actually went and busted up strikes. He started the FDA. He started the National Park Services. And so I think there is, that is the job of the government in some ways, to to keep, keep things in check. But you, you gotta believe that no regulation is going to be passed on the way, on the way we throttle content. And so, yeah, the, the traditional mainstream media is certainly on its way out. And I do think this is a great trend towards democratization of content. But we also have to be incredibly purposeful, all the way at the top with regulation, all the way at the bottom with taking what you see

• 3:30:41Speaker 01

  on the internet seriously, not ripping Sig for something that you've never actually shot like an idiot. Oh, shit.

• 3:30:53Speaker 01

  But I, I, so I think, I think that's one. And then the other kind of dark horse here is the AI stuff, is just the amount of, of bots or the amount of AI-generated content that is just in, really in the last six months, gone and just transcended these spaces. Which, back, back to the importance of, of guys like you, guys like Rogan, like, the way you cut through that is by having personalities you trust. Right? And that that makes y'all's job all the more important because suddenly there's so much other content. Now, the thing that content won't be able to replicate is a voice of truth. But that again creates centralization. And so it's just a ton of trust that has to be placed as society on people like you who will go and have people from all walks of life on this show

• 3:31:37Speaker 01

  and have good conversations with them about about ideas and and be willing to to have productive debate. Like, that is the way we cut through this. But we need to watch out. We need to watch out for the algorithms. We need to watch out for for for the the amount of AI content entering the Internet. We need to watch out for the effect bots can have on algorithms. Like, you go and deploy a bunch of bots to get a video watched because these are all positive feedback loops. Like, if a video gets watched a ton, it's likely to get watched more. And so if if a video is getting watched a ton, people can use bots to augment the amount of the amount of of that information that goes out in the world. And then similarly, I mean, L L M's are really good at this point. The ability to spin up L L M's to

• 3:32:21Speaker 01

  just flood comment sections. Because that's the way this media is is reviewed by people. You go and watch the video, but you actually form most of your takes scrolling the content or the comments. And so if 90% of the comments are like CCP bots ripping people, um, now, maybe that's just cope for me because I don't want to have my feelings hurt by bad comments and I'll say they're AI or whatever. Whatever. I'm kidding. But the the comment section is also something to to look out for. Because even for you, for your your watchers, like, they watch your video. As they're watching your video, they're scrolling the comments, talking about things and having opinions formed. And so this is is in many ways like a new domain of warfare in this new space of information.

• 3:33:06Speaker 01

  What I was getting at with Taiwan. Absolutely. Absolutely. And so and there's it's so hard to regulate. Like, it's so insanely insanely hard to go and regulate the amount of bots that are actually in these in these circles. And then there's no real major structural incentive for tech companies to go and regulate this because you don't get that much out of it. And it's incredibly expensive. And the the ways you actually do this are not good for the user. Like, like, anyway, we don't have to go into it, but it's it's a It's a really, really tough problem to solve. Um, I'm super, super grateful for, for guys like you who, who, who, who do stuff like this because I completely agree with you. If not, if not for,

• 3:33:49Speaker 01

  if not for democratization of information in the last election, we wouldn't have known what the hell was going on. I mean, you, you, you think about Trump getting shot, like the, the major media outlets reported loud sound heard for like hours after that. You've literally got a former president shot on stage and the media is like saying a completely different narrative.

• 3:34:08Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah.

• 3:34:08Speaker 01

  And this goes both ways. Um, so I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm not saying it's just a left issue or just a right issue. It's just something we need to take incredibly seriously because a democracy does not work if people do not know what the issues are.

• 3:34:23Shawn Ryan?

  Scary fucking times. Do you take, how do you deal with, uh, corporate espionage? I mean, that's big in Silicon Valley. I don't know if it's big where you're, I would imagine it is because, because Palmer's down there, right? A lot of them, uh, I don't know how far you are from else. It has to be there. If you're there, it has to be there. And I mean, and it's, it's, I mean, it runs rampant. You know, I've asked, I was,

• 3:34:51Shawn Ryan?

  I was talking to one of the guests, I won't mention his name. He's a, he's a tech dude. And I asked him, you know, because I'm always worried because, and I told him, hey, you know, I've been overseas all over the place. One of the things this Chinese do is they set up brothels all over the fucking place. And then they get these state department guys, fucking agency, whoever. They go in there and they fall in love with some fucking Chinese hooker and then done. Yep. And so if that's happening over there, and I know damn well it's happening in Silicon Valley, where you're at in Austin, any, anybody that's doing something innovative, especially somebody that's interested in China, Taiwan, Russia, Ukraine.

• 3:35:36Shawn Ryan?

  And then I interviewed this woman, Masha Booker. Have you heard of her? Holy shit. You didn't take an investment from her, did you? Good man.

• 3:35:43Speaker 01

  Crazy though.

• 3:35:44Shawn Ryan?

  Dude. So I talked to another guy and he was talking about how this woman comes in and.

• 3:35:52Shawn Ryan?

  The clothes eventually slip off and then next thing you know, she wants to invest in your company with a fucking VC firm. And so I interviewed her and I knew I could tell, you know, obviously I could tell it was bullshit because we never fucking released the interview. I just considered the entire fucking thing to be a lie. We found one little thing about her in the Epstein files. So we are not in the Epstein files. I'm sorry, on an in an article that she was she did something with with his PR. You know what I mean? Totally fucking dismissed it. Got really uncomfortable. Blew Jeremy, my producer up nonstop. I don't want that in there. Jeremy's told me she doesn't want it in there.

• 3:36:37Shawn Ryan?

  We could still release it. I'm like, no, that's a it's a it's a fucking horrible interview like the only the only decent part in it that's interesting is the Epstein shit. And then there's one other company that she's talking about fucking freezing people. And you wake up a thousand years later or some shit, but so that was kind of wild, but it's like, no, if that's not in there, we're definitely not fucking putting it out. It was like the whole thing's probably fucking lie. So we didn't put it out. And then what? Three, three million pages get released and her fucking name is in there like all over the place, all over the place.

• 3:37:12Speaker 01

  She in jail?

• 3:37:14Shawn Ryan?

  What's that?

• 3:37:14Speaker 01

  Is she in jail?

• 3:37:15Shawn Ryan?

  I don't think she's in jail, but

• 3:37:16Speaker 01

  She's gonna go to jail.

• 3:37:19Speaker 01

  Sorry, I'm I'm taking I took the wrong turn there. Uh,

• 3:37:23Shawn Ryan?

  She should.

• 3:37:24Speaker 01

  She should.

• 3:37:24Shawn Ryan?

  A lot of people should.

• 3:37:25Speaker 01

  A lot of people should. And then on the corporate corporate espionage.

• 3:37:28Shawn Ryan?

  Well, yeah. So that's what I

• 3:37:30Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 3:37:30Shawn Ryan?

  You got thoughts on this? That's it. Oh, you guys know who this woman is?

• 3:37:35Speaker 01

  You have to. I mean, you have to be so hypervigilant as as a founder. As anyone, right?

• 3:37:42Shawn Ryan?

  Are they though?

• 3:37:46Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, this is part of when I was talking about when you were looking for, or maybe you weren't looking, when you were at MIT and you had VC firms, investors coming up to you. That's what I was getting at. Are you nervous? Did that make you nervous? Because of corporate espionage and shit like that, people taking advantage of you. You're a young guy, you don't have a lot of experience, you're obviously extremely fucking intelligent. But I don't know, I don't know, you know, if you pick up on things like that.

• 3:38:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 3:38:14Shawn Ryan?

  That young at the age, I would think a lot of people don't, that only comes with experience.

• 3:38:20Speaker 01

  That's scary. I mean, I think there are a few different risk fronts. One is actually having like your decision making as a CEO influenced, right? And I, I feel good there, like I'm squarely in charge of the company, like I have deeply trusted investors. We work together to, to, to make decisions, but ultimately it is my decision and I've very closely curated that group. I think, I think the next is basically investor data rights, right? Cause the issue is all these VCs, it's not their money, it's their LP's money. In many cases, it's their LP's money. And so you've got like five levels of money coming down the chain. So you've got to be super tight with, with IP and, and, and data rights with, with your investors and share what, what you need to share for the sake of basically investor transparency.

• 3:39:04Speaker 01

  But there's no reason we should be sending like the Viper CAD, right? And then as a company, this where it gets really, really hard. And we have a team that works on this, obviously. So we have a cybersecurity team, we have physical security. We run really extensive background checks on anyone that the on sites at the company.

• 3:39:23Speaker 01

  The issue is it, it can't be a maximization. So like, let's say I wanted to sit here and say, we're going to maximize our ability to avoid corporate espionage.

• 3:39:34Speaker 01

  You would lock down all your servers, everything would be like, this is what Skunkworks does. Like a lot of Skunkworks is literally pen and paper because they're afraid of having their stuff hacked. Well.

• 3:39:43Shawn Ryan?

  Damn, that's fucking weird. I just had this fucking conversation with Nick, with Nick Seether, Rob. And I said, do you think we'll hit a point with AI and, you know, everybody's fear of quantum computing and all this other shit? I mean, are we going to go back to face to face, pen and paper, stored in a fucking vault? Because.

• 3:40:06Shawn Ryan?

  Of all the shit, you know what I mean, that, that, that, that, that people text each other, photo, all, everything, like, just personal stuff. Then we get into, you know, national secrets, national security secrets, shit like that. I mean, it's fucking online, it can be hacked. It seems like it might, I, I, maybe it already is going back to that a little bit.

• 3:40:28Speaker 01

  I don't think we, I don't think we, it's an optimization. So it's somewhere in the middle. You can't completely do that. So like, that's one of the reasons, if you read the Skunk Works book, they talk about that actually leading to the, the collapse of innovation at Skunk Works. When it takes 18 months to hire someone because you're combing through everything they've ever done, right? And where you can't use the best design software because you're on pen and paper. And so like, at the end of the job, you do, your job is to ship products. If we're shipping products at 1% the rate of China, that's, we're gonna lose regardless. Um, and so you, you, you have to have a ton of tact in the way you choose to treat these things. And unfortunately, you just can't be maximist about it because you stop operating as a business.

• 3:41:09Speaker 01

  There are a few things that help a lot. Um, the biggest being moving quickly, right? Like, if my design changes every three months, well, you can have the design from three months ago. But my engineers are sitting there working on a design that's 10 times better than that. Um, so that's, that's one. The second, people talk a lot about, people talk a lot about basically centralizing data in warfighting. And that's, that's really, really important, but it also creates risk, risk vectors. And so architecting your products such that like 200 Vipers can't be hacked out of the air at any given time is obviously very, very important to do. Um, supply chain security is something that people don't talk nearly enough about.

• 3:41:52Shawn Ryan?

  Hmm.

• 3:41:53Speaker 01

  No, no company on earth operates all the way up to their mind across everything they do. You, you can't do it, right? So like, a deeply vertically integrated company manufactures, let's say 50% of the parts that go into their, their, their platform. And this could be iPhones, this could be cars, this could be Vipers, this could be other aircraft. Cause you can't afford to. Um, but then even, even those components you're building have components that come from elsewhere and those components come from elsewhere. And so.

• 3:42:25Speaker 01

  I worry a little bit about information leakage. I worry more about the supply chain perspective. Because on the information side, if you're moving quickly enough, if you're innovating, you're creating natural fortification against that. And that's sort of your job is to just move at such a pace that if someone gets that, they're getting information that's already obsolete. And that's the best defense you can have.

• 3:42:48Speaker 01

  Especially when when it is a competitive environment. Like if it's just you building it, go insanely slow. Like hire five people, write everything on pen and paper and develop a product over 20 years. But when you're in a literal arms race against China, you can't do that. And so find the balance of what makes sense and what doesn't make sense. And then move as quickly as possible so that if information gets out, then you've already moved past it. The the supply chain side. And then anything as relates to to your software is what gets really, really, really scary. Like if if if.

• 3:43:22Speaker 01

  I'm listening. We saw. I mean, we saw.

• 3:43:28Speaker 01

  We saw the Israelis do this quite effectively with the pagers.

• 3:43:33Speaker 01

  Right? And and so that that that type of warfare goes both ways. And that should keep us all up at night. Right? Like the fuses you put in your aircraft. Like if, anyway, I won't go too deep down this rabbit hole. Goes down a whole nother bugging rabbit hole right there. I've not even thought about that. I have not even. Because ultimately, I mean, I I would say we're very vertically integrated as a company. Like. Of course, we're new, so it's not like I've had 10 years to work on all this stuff. But that is, if there's one thing Mac does, it is vertical integration. But even even us, I mean, as you look at the branching structure down the supply chain, you've got literally thousands of factories down the supply chain.

• 3:44:17Speaker 01

  And again, our our job as countries to ship things. So you can't sit with your hands behind your back afraid, right, to ship products. But at the same time, you you do have to, you you do have to to stay weary of like what it would mean for literally one of those factories to get compromised.

• 3:44:37Shawn Ryan?

  It's a lot to think about.

• 3:44:39Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 3:44:40Shawn Ryan?

  Let's talk about neo-feudalism.

• 3:44:42Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 3:44:42Shawn Ryan?

  What is it?

• 3:44:45Speaker 01

  So.

• 3:44:50Speaker 01

  It's a, it's a kind of newly emerging term. I'm, I'm, I'm glad you brought it up. I.

• 3:45:00Speaker 01

  It's the idea of rentership instead of ownership.

• 3:45:04Speaker 01

  And that's sort of progressing towards its limits. And so I'll get more specific, but generally speaking,

• 3:45:11Speaker 01

  like feudalism is this idea that you don't owe your land, own your land, right? Like you're a serf that works, that pays rent and or gives a portion of your food to work someone else's own land.

• 3:45:24Speaker 01

  Through so many different means, that is the way a lot of our economy functions today. I mean, take, take like planned obsolescence, right? So are you familiar with this?

• 3:45:36Shawn Ryan?

  No.

• 3:45:36Speaker 01

  No worries if not. Um, it's basically like companies these days specifically engineer their products to break at a given time.

• 3:45:44Shawn Ryan?

  Okay.

• 3:45:45Speaker 01

  So like the iPhone has planned obsolescence where like after three years, it's not going to be a useful good.

• 3:45:52Speaker 01

  John Deere, I think this is a great example, like the whole right to repair, like fight of like, is it, is a farmer allowed to maintenance his own tractor? Or will John Deere specifically engineer things such that you can't repair the thing? And so, one, there's a ton of planned obsolescence. And basically what that means is that you're buying goods more frequently from these companies. Two, you have, I mean, you have the idea of service models. And everything's pushing towards service models, right? And so, I mean, even, even you look at, you look at cars. Like, I think it's very, very likely that Tesla is doing most of their revenue, not selling cars to people that they, they own, but selling services and, and cyber caps, right? You literally look at, at homeownership, homeownership.

• 3:46:34Speaker 01

  Like my generation is not going to be able to afford to buy homes. Like if you, if you track the actual relative amount of annual income versus home price. Everyone rents everything they have. And it's something that's been talked about for a while. There's several people have said it, but basically like in the future, you you will own nothing and be happy about it.

• 3:46:52Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah.

• 3:46:53Speaker 01

  And there's a structural reason companies do this. It's a great way to maximize earnings. Right? Like if you're if you're Apple, you engineer a phone to not last and suddenly someone's buying a phone every three years. And and when it gets really, really bad is when tech starts to plateau and people have no other reason to buy the new good. Then you really almost have to do this to stay in business. And then the companies that adopt this.

• 3:47:19Shawn Ryan?

  Have to do what?

• 3:47:20Speaker 01

  I'm not saying.

• 3:47:21Shawn Ryan?

  Are you saying they have to?

• 3:47:23Speaker 01

  If these companies want to stay in business in a competitive market, in many cases, they have to do planned obsolescence.

• 3:47:30Shawn Ryan?

  But if the if the if if tech plateaus, then what's the incentive to fucking buy a new one?

• 3:47:36Speaker 01

  Because it breaks. So like your iPhone, does your iPhone work that differently than it did like five years ago?

• 3:47:42Shawn Ryan?

  No.

• 3:47:43Speaker 01

  So why did you buy new iPhones?

• 3:47:46Shawn Ryan?

  Because they break.

• 3:47:50Speaker 01

  And that's the case on a lot of different things. I mean, our our trucks, I I I I guess you you have a cool four truck because it hasn't broken because it's been around for so long. But I I have a four truck, I have 105,000 miles on it. I would love to drive that to 300,000, 400,000 miles. It's breaking down. I'm gonna have to buy a new one. It's not a better truck. It's just planned obsolescence. And and so a lot of what Silicon Valley does nowadays is not innovate on technology. They innovate on business model.

• 3:48:20Speaker 01

  It's like a relatively new thing that's happened in the last few decades. Is people don't walk into a pitch meeting talking about the the great new product they're bringing. They're talking about the new way of taking existing resources and distributing them differently.

• 3:48:33Shawn Ryan?

  Wow.

• 3:48:34Speaker 01

  And there there are good effects to this, like Uber is a great company, but Uber obviously didn't really build anything. It was a it was it was a business practice of how to share resources more. And the effect of that is all of the focus right now is on how you extract more dollars from a consumer. Not necessarily how you provide a consumer a better good in many cases.

• 3:48:57Speaker 01

  And so there's, I mean, there's a very, very clear effect between ownership and societal stability. Like, if you don't own anything in your society, you don't have that much of an aligned incentive to fight. And when I say you, I'm talking like, obviously, me as the CEO of a company, I will fucking promise you, I'll never do planned obsolescence. Right? Like, I would like to think that regardless of how much you own this country, you're gonna care about the country just as much. But when you look at the average of hundreds of millions of people of all the corporations in the US, the incentive of the business is planned obsolescence. The incentive of the business is service structures. And then the incentive at the low end becomes the companies that do this can actually innovate better because

• 3:49:39Speaker 01

  they're getting more money. And so the companies that try to build things to last go out of business while the companies that are doing planned obsolescence have more money to pump into research and other things. And I'm not saying it's an inherently bad thing. Again, I love capitalism, but it is just something that is happening that we need to talk about. That is that very, very few people, specifically my generation, actually own that much. Like, I rent my music. I rent, I rent my apartment. I don't rent my truck, but the trucks I buy are like, are only good for, let's say, 150,000 miles. And that's terrifying. Because then you get, and that's where the neo-feudalism emerges, is you get trapped in these loops.

• 3:50:20Speaker 01

  Like, you are a serf, borrowing all the time. And you get people who end up living paycheck to paycheck, never able to get ahead. Because instead of buying something and passing it down to your kids, or at least having it for several decades, you're buying something so that you can buy it again in a month.

• 3:50:49Shawn Ryan?

  How do you think we get out of this? I mean, it's gonna be, it's gonna be your generation that fixes it.

• 3:51:00Shawn Ryan?

  Because everybody else isn't fucking comfortable.

• 3:51:04Speaker 01

  I think.

• 3:51:07Speaker 01

  I think if we're if we're gonna be in a position to fix it, we've got to get started right now. And most of these structural changes have to be made in the next few years. Like, I would love to think it's my generation that's gonna fix it, but the unfortunate thing is in two or three decades, two or three decades. I worry that these structures are gonna be so reinforced. Right? Like, let's talk AI. Like, and this is something like for my generation, in the last three or four years, we've seen this this hockey stick and AI growth. It's actually really, really difficult for my generation to bank on a career of any sort. By the time we're forty, fifty, sixty, when we're actually in positions to do anything about it. And so maybe it's on my generation to be ringing the alarm bells. And I'm not complaining. My generation has had like an incredible, easy time, right?

• 3:51:50Speaker 01

  Like, I'm not I'm not complaining. There's there's none of that, but I'm just saying like, I I do think it's happening very, very quickly. And it's not my generation that are CEOs of companies. It's not my generation that are frankly in in positions to get people elected. Things, things that have to be done on the neo feudalism point. I think, one, we just need good companies. Like, if you're building a company in Silicon Valley, obsess about like making a customer's life better. If you're funding companies, obsess about companies that make a customer's life better, that solve real problems for people.

• 3:52:25Speaker 01

  If if if you're the CEO of a company, like, I do think you have a moral responsibility to ship products that are good for people's lives. Right? Like, it is it is your job in a position of power to think deeply about the effects of the the products you bring to earth. If you're working for one of those companies, you should be thinking deeply about the same.

• 3:52:44Speaker 01

  And then I I will say the consumer has something to to do about it, too. Like, you you can buy enduring goods by cutting spending and and and focusing differently. Now, that's a small portion of the country, and most of the most of the country at this point, I think, is just trapped in that cycle.

• 3:53:00Speaker 01

  But you you can raise the alarm bells. Um, so on the on the neo-futileism point, that's what I urge. It has to be a cultural shift. Like, you don't want the government to get involved in this one. Like, if there's if there's one thing that that needs to not happen is taking this as a flaw of capitalism and going to break.

• 3:53:17Shawn Ryan?

  I mean, this is fucking scary, though. I mean, because it's are you Gen Z?

• 3:53:22Speaker 01

  I am.

• 3:53:22Shawn Ryan?

  Right? I mean, this is the this is the big complaint of Gen Z. Can't fucking buy a house, can't buy anything. And I used to think, eh, maybe they're just fucking lazy. Maybe, you know, maybe they're not going to be able to do it. Well, Trump came out with a 50-year mortgage that should cut the payment in half. I was wrong about that. I thought was like, well, I mean, everybody was shitting on it. And I was like, I think that might be a good thing because it should cut the payment damn near in half. Then I brought in my good friend, Rob Luna, and he gave me the real numbers. And he was like, uh, it's I think he says more like a 15% cut. And I was like, oh, shit. Okay. And so that that made it. The conversation I had with Rob

• 3:54:05Shawn Ryan?

  made it real for me. I was like, oh, fuck, man. This generation is fucked. And and and I mean, there has to be an answer. But at the same time, if it's only fucking doom and gloom, and you in in, I mean, you have an entire generation of people that don't think they'll ever be able to buy a house, afford a car, have a family.

• 3:54:26Speaker 01

  Have a real career, like have a real.

• 3:54:27Shawn Ryan?

  Have a real career. What the fuck do you have to look forward to? And so how do you motivate that generation?

• 3:54:40Shawn Ryan?

  It's a big problem.

• 3:54:41Speaker 01

  It's a big problem. Now, I will say.

• 3:54:44Shawn Ryan?

  And then, if you don't solve it, then that generation's kids, if they have any. That that that that gets passed down.

• 3:54:53Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 3:54:53Shawn Ryan?

  Just like, just like, uh, what do you, um, man. Uh, generational trauma.

• 3:54:59Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 3:54:59Shawn Ryan?

  It's just, you know what I mean? That becomes.

• 3:55:01Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 3:55:01Shawn Ryan?

  The loop.

• 3:55:02Speaker 01

  And we, we had a conversation about agency earlier and sort of the erosion of agency. That's where it's coming from. Is you feel like you have no control over your political system. Like you're watching literal pedophiles not go to jail. Right? In many cases, stay in power on both sides, on both sides.

• 3:55:18Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, this isn't.

• 3:55:20Speaker 01

  None of this.

• 3:55:20Shawn Ryan?

  I don't even see right and left anymore, man. I only see fucking good and evil.

• 3:55:24Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 3:55:24Shawn Ryan?

  And that is it.

• 3:55:25Speaker 01

  Agreed.

• 3:55:26Shawn Ryan?

  I don't, I don't even believe in this left and right shit.

• 3:55:28Speaker 01

  I agree.

• 3:55:29Shawn Ryan?

  It's all a fucking facade.

• 3:55:30Speaker 01

  So I think a few things, a few things I would urge. One is perception does become reality. If everyone thinks that the world is going to go into, into oblivion, no one will save for the future. No one will work for the future. And so you, it's, it's a difficult balance, but you have to talk about the problems without becoming defeatist. Because humanity has dealt with really, really, really dark times.

• 3:55:55Shawn Ryan?

  Uh huh.

• 3:55:55Speaker 01

  Right? And so you, you have to sit here and have really, really hard conversations, but then have hope. And say, we will get through this. It does make sense to think about things on 10, 20, 30 year timelines. It does make sense to like, think about what it means to have a family in this country. And, and that's just a fundamental step change that has to be had. Because other than that, like in, until, until you get into the frame of mind of like, I don't care how bad the odds are. I'm going to get up and work. You're going to sit down and, and scroll. And so I think that needs to happen. I think, I think we, we need to, to almost be like, delusional about the amount of agency we have.

• 3:56:35Speaker 01

  Like, I, I don't know how to describe this, but like, you, you have to, you have to act as if you have orders of ma- magnitude more impact on the world than you actually do. And you have to trap yourself into thinking that, like obsess about what can I do today to actually make things better? Cause we're a capitalist democracy. We are nothing other than the people in this country. And so if the people in this country start thinking they, they are in control, which they are and need to be, and hopefully always will be. Um, they need to realize that and, and, and get up and start pushing for change. And then the next step is how do you actually identify what the real problems are? Cause look, I like, I, I am 22. I'm an idiot on, on most of the things we've talked about.

• 3:57:18Speaker 01

  My, my goal is that there are great people constantly having this conversation and these conversations and that we sharpen each other through good discourse. Now, you can only achieve good discourse with good data, right? And so that's where you get into the broader theme of like, what does it mean for information to actually get out? That's where people like you are so important. That's, that's where I do think let regulation actually has a place to play and like making algorithm tuning not as prolific as it is today, actually cracking down on bots that influence the way people think. I think the next is, is on, on the way we view AI. Like, none of us should be doomers. None of us should be super, super rosy. We all just need to think about like actual first principles of what this looks like and choose to use products,

• 3:58:02Speaker 01

  choose to, to support companies that, that we think will actually make the world a place we want to live in. On the political side, we immediately have to drop partisan bickering. Like it, it has to, to exit our brains. We have to be willing. I, I don't care how conservative you are or how liberal you are. You have to be able to sit down and just have a real conversation and, and talk about real policy, regardless of religion, regardless of anything else. Even if you deeply believe in your religion, which you and I both do, you, you just have to come together and, and have deep conversations about these things, even if you and I believe in our political views, like we, we in again, I'm saying you isn't like, again, you, you. And so next is have good

• 3:58:45Speaker 01

  discourse and then folks just need to start acting, like invest in companies that you think

• 3:58:51Speaker 01

  build the future. Like I, I also think people don't realize how, how big of an impact they can actually have on the stock market when they invest in companies that like, most companies are public, right? And it's, it's not everyday people that own a majority of shares, but it's a non trivial amount. So that's a real thing you can go and do. You can buy from companies that you think do this. You, you can sure as hell go and work at companies. That's probably the biggest thing you can do. Like if you, if you really want to go make a difference in the world, either go start a company or go work for a company, not for a salary, not for anything other than like, I believe in the mission of going and making the world a better place in any number of ways.

• 3:59:29Speaker 01

  Because again, if you zoom all the way out, the things this country does is nothing more than than the inputs of individual people. And so if people choose to work on good missions, if people choose to start good missions, good missions will be achieved. So yeah, I think the I think the biggest answer is like, hope and agency.

• 3:59:51Shawn Ryan?

  Well, I think people like you are bringing a lot of hope.

• 3:59:54Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 3:59:55Shawn Ryan?

  It's pretty fucking cool, man.

• 3:59:56Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 3:59:57Shawn Ryan?

  What you're doing, what a lot of your buddies are doing. Well, actually, I don't even know if they're your buddies, but.

• 4:00:02Speaker 01

  They're, no, we're all on the same team. Like, to the end, it is the same mission that we're all fighting for. Specifically in the defense base. Like, it's the only thing that matters is if the warfighter has the best kit, and if if if America's in a position to protect democracy. So I appreciate it.

• 4:00:21Shawn Ryan?

  Yeah, Ethan, you're a fascinating guy, and impressive guy.

• 4:00:25Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 4:00:26Shawn Ryan?

  Thank you for coming.

• 4:00:27Speaker 01

  Thanks for having me.

• 4:00:27Shawn Ryan?

  It's been really fucking cool. So I wish you the best luck and I hope to see you again.

• 4:00:34Speaker 01

  Thank you.

• 4:00:35Shawn Ryan?

  All right, man.

• 4:00:37Shawn Ryan?

  Cheers.

• 4:00:49Shawn Ryan?

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