Pod Insights The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch 20VC: VCs are Spreadsheet Monkeys and are Commoditised | Why Fees and Carry Misalign GPs and LPs | Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds | Why We Need European Sovereignty More Than Ever with Taavet Hinrikus About this episode Taavet Hinrikus is a Partner at Plural, the early-stage fund that backs the most ambitious founders on a mission to change the world through technology. He co-founded Wise in 2010, where he was CEO and later Chairman, which went public in the first-ever direct listing in Europe in 2021. Prior to that, Taavet was Skype’s Director of Strategy until 2008, having joined as its first employee. He’s been an active investor for more than a decade,with personal investments in the likes of Bolt and Synthesia. In Today’s Show We Discuss: 04:08 VCs are Spreadsheet Monkeys 05:41 Why Banker European VCs Suck More Than The Others 11:20 Why Serial Entrepreneurs Are Better 14:48 Why the 2:20 Fee and Carry Model in VC is Broken 18:01 What are the Biggest Ways VC Investment Decision-Making is Broken 28:26 Why is it BS when VC Firms Need Every Partner to Meet the Founder 31:24 When and Why Will Founders Realise Multi-Stage Firms are Bad Early Investors 34:35 Why Does Europe Need to Build it’s Own Tech Now More Than Ever 37:24 Will Putin Invade More European Countries 39:29 What are the Dangers of Having US Made Tech in Europe 47:12 How Does the Change in Relationship Between the US and Europe Impact How We Build Our Tech Ecosystem? 52:36 Quick Fire Questions and Reflections
Transcript 10,854 words · 2 speakers
Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
0:00 Speaker 00 Do not be that asshole. There are plenty of stories out there of respectable VCs not picking up the phone when it's a bad times. We are a commoditized product, Harry. VCs are a commodity. You can press them down. Fundamentally, the idea of collecting a 2%, 2.5% management fee does not really make sense. It does not align us with the outcomes. If we can't imagine 100x, we should not be entertaining the idea of this deal.
0:27 Harry Stebbings? This is 20VC with me, Harry Stebbings. Now, I am a proud European. I grew up loving technology in London. With that in mind, there were few heroes for me to look up to. One of them is our guest today. He's built one of the most defining companies in Europe over the last decade. The first ever direct listing in Europe, now a $10 billion company. I'm thrilled to welcome Taavet Heinrichs, today a partner at Plural, the $500 million fund that backs the most ambitious founders in Europe to build what I call really hard shit. Before Plural, Taavet founded Waze, and before that was the first employee at Skype. If that wasn't enough, he's also an angel in the likes of Bolt, who we had on the show before with Marcus, and Synthesia. But before we dive in today,
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4:00 Harry Stebbings? That's V A N T A dot com forward slash 2 0 vc. You have now arrived at your destination. Tarver, dude, I am so excited for this. I've wanted to make this one happen for years. So thank you so much for joining me. Finally, I'm so glad to be here. Well, dude, the pleasure is all mine. Now, I want to start before plural. You're a prolific angel. Can you just start on the investing career there? How it went, whether you liked it, and the transition to plural?
4:28 Speaker 00 So I made my first angel investment probably about 20 years ago. And I think, you know, through the years of building Wise and still working at Skype, I was like, I met other people who were building businesses. I was excited about what they were doing. I wanted to be part of the journey and wrote the small angel ticket. I went into overdrive once I stopped running Wise, doing 30, 40, 50 deals a year. That was fun, you know. But I think it was, it started feeling to me a little bit Wall Street-esque, high-speed deployment. I think it was a great portfolio strategy, since the portfolio has done really well. But it felt it wasn't, it wasn't very kind of mission-aligned. I thought there is something more that can be done.
5:11 Speaker 00 And that's kind of was the beginning of thinking, hey, we should start Plural. We should really think about getting founders who have scar tissue from building companies to become investors.
5:21 Harry Stebbings? What was the single best investment from that period?
5:24 Speaker 00 So one of the things I missed out on investing in Bolt seed round. But then a couple of years later, I was really impressed with Marcus and I spent a bunch of time and I spent a lot of my limited liquidity buying up secondaries in Bolt in like 2017.
5:41 Harry Stebbings? I just want to start then with a core question, which is, you said there about it felt a little bit like Wall Street. That kind of hit when you said it because it made me think of Doug Leone, who said on the show to me that venture has turned from a boutique cottage community into a commoditized, high-volume industry. Do you agree with that transition from boutique community to a high-volume commoditized industry?
6:07 Speaker 00 I think a lot of that rings a bell, but I think we need to unpack it a little bit more. I think, you know, it's very different if you're talking about deploying big checks in mid or late stage. It's very different if you're doing high-speed investing in early stage, kind of what I did as an angel. It's very different to what we do at Plural, which is backing the most ambitious founders. And sometimes there's no one else who wants to back them. I think we need to unpack this into different parts of the venture ecosystem and different parts, I think, are going through different journeys.
6:41 Harry Stebbings? You said before, I saw this and I was like, this is just too good not to start with it. You said VCs are spreadsheet monkeys who have no idea how to run a business.
6:53 Harry Stebbings? Can you unpack that for me, Tove?
6:55 Speaker 00 What I meant by this is that if you are looking at the mid-stage SaaS company, consumer company, where all you need to do is stack up the cohort curves, take away the CAC, multiply by LTV, pay a very high price to win the deal, that is not very exciting to me. And that's what I mean by spreadsheet monkeys. But if you're talking about early stage, when you're really looking, looking the founder deep in the eye, trying to figure out why is he doing it? What is his unfair advantage to build a generational business? I think that's very different. And some things that I, I've said many times is that if you look at the European landscape, the vast majority of the European GPs
7:39 Speaker 00 have not spent a single day working in a real company. They've worked in consulting firms, banks, but they haven't worked in a real operating company. And I think the scar tissue you have from working in an operating company, or even more, the scar tissue you have from building, being the founder, being the CEO, is very different.
7:59 Harry Stebbings? There's two elements that I want to unpack there. The first, you said about kind of the movement away from the spreadsheet investing. I had Nabeel from Spark on the show, who has made some great investments recently in your granolas, but also your anthropics of the world. And he said that we're actually leaving that era, that that predictable SaaS growth era is over. You see companies like Loveable, Bolt, McCor, the Midjourney, you name it, where revenue trajectories are unparalleled. And that SaaS predictability era is over. Do you agree that the era of like spreadsheet investing and predictable SaaS growth is over? And we're now in this unbelievably unpredictable time?
8:35 Speaker 00 There is a lot more unpredictability, but I think there is still, you know, companies that are on a growth trajectory. I think they will look somewhat similar and, you know, more spreadsheet-like and they need capital and people need to give some capital and nothing wrong with that. But that's, you know, maybe even more similar to what public market investing used to look like a long time ago. But I think if you're talking about trying to spot the next trillion-dollar company, I think that's a lot harder, maybe even harder now than it was back in the days because competition is bigger in some sense, there are more people trying.
9:11 Harry Stebbings? You mentioned the majority, I think you said before it's like eight to 12% or whatever, that have actually had like operating experience in real companies in venture in Europe. How does the mindset differ when comparing an investor who doesn't have any operating experience to someone who does have a lot of operating experience when it comes to actually investing and picking the companies to work with? How does that mindset differ, do you think?
9:35 Speaker 00 It's about the ability to assess the founders and think about what could this look like once we get to product market fit. When you have product market fit, when you have metrics to look at, I think everything becomes a lot easier. The challenge is really before that. A big part of it is also, we're five partners at Plural, we've all built companies before, we've all raised money, we've either raised money or tried to raise money from pretty much everybody who was around 10 years ago. The best of the best and the worst of the worst. Every time, we had the most insightful conversations with the people who had built their own companies. In the seed round, we got Max Levchin when we were raising money for TransferWise, as
10:19 Speaker 00 it was called before, you know, then we raised money from Ben Horowitz. And same, same for my partners, we had the most insightful conversations with people who had been on operating journeys. And that's why we were always looking for people who were a couple of years ahead of us. And we feel also now, like even now, when we speak to founders, they really appreciate the fact that we've been in their shoes. Does it make us a better investor? Frankly, I don't know. Time will tell. It makes us better partners for the people we invest in.
10:50 Harry Stebbings? If you go through the different elements of venture, sourcing, selecting, securing, which is winning, and servicing, which is helping, do you think, if we take it one by one, the operating experience makes you better at sourcing, finding companies? Like, do more founders go to you inbound because of the experience and the operating successes that you've had, or not?
11:14 Speaker 00 Frankly, I think venture is a brand game. So if you are a new fund, so brandies, a brand of GPs.
11:22 Harry Stebbings? I would say that Plural have built a brand as being, you do deep hard shit, that most other people are like, well, I don't understand that. Would you say that's a fair representation of the brand that you want to build?
11:34 Speaker 00 We are looking to back the most ambitious entrepreneurs, whatever they're building. So we're looking at Proxima Fusion, that's maybe what you would call deep hard shit. Then we look on the other side, we have Teton, which is using CCTV cameras to monitor patients. It's not that complicated, maybe. It's a full spectrum. But I think, you know, it's a character of the entrepreneur, which it may be the most, most important, you know. Approximately half of the founders we back are repeat entrepreneurs. You know, we look at Thorsten, who built a gaming company, then he went into building a defense company, and he started Helsing in 2020 or 2021. You need to have something which makes you tick
12:15 Speaker 00 differently to go building a defense company four or five years ago, before this became a hot topic.
12:21 Harry Stebbings? How do you feel about the value of serial entrepreneurship? Inherently, I find that I feel so much more comfortable backing a serial entrepreneur. There is so much learnt through the scar tissue of the mistakes you've made before, but then others say about the benefits of naivety of being a first time founder.
12:35 Speaker 00 We love repeat founders. When we look at the people we've backed and the ones we haven't backed, what stands out to us is that, so repeat founders, they typically go for a much bigger goal. Thorsten did a gaming company, then he went into defense. And we can talk about Daniel Ek, the first company was e-commerce, and then he took on a massive challenge of building Spotify. So we love the fact that these people, they go for a massively bigger goal next time. And again, I don't know if they have a bigger likelihood of success, but even if the likelihood of success is the same, the outcome is so much bigger. They've learned a fair few things on the journey. I don't think I would be that excited to back a founder who built fintech company one, and then goes on to build fintech company two.
13:19 Harry Stebbings? You know, I had Delian on the show from Founders Fund and he said if you are a repeat founder, building in like enterprise SaaS, you are doing a massive injustice. In this time, when we have income inequality like never before, climate challenges like never before, energy problems like never before, conflict and defence problems like never before, you really thought the second time you'd do payroll again?
13:41 Speaker 00 For me personally, it's pretty hard to get excited about the good old SaaS company.
13:46 Harry Stebbings? I still get very excited. So that's the joy of this game, which is there's many different ways to do it.
13:51 Speaker 00 We are complimentary, Harry.
13:53 Harry Stebbings? I agree totally. Do you think rich investors make better investors? I often think this with like a sequoia of the world. They are not scared about downside protection. They are upside focused. They are not scared of losing their jobs. They are not scared of not making money. It is solely upside. Do you think rich investors make better investors?
14:13 Speaker 00 What I would ask about is are they investing other people's money or their own money as well? I think there is one thing if you're a rich investor and you play with only other people's money. There's a different thing if you're a rich investor and you're investing your own money. It's a question of alignment and hopefully we'll talk more about this, but like we've thought deeply about alignment in venture and how to make sure that we are better aligned with both our LPs and our founders. And I think that to me is the core thing of like, look at what a person does with their own money. And I think that's kind of the most important.
14:48 Harry Stebbings? Do you think when we look at the current state of venture, it is aligned sufficiently?
14:52 Speaker 00 I don't think it is in general. Fundamentally, the idea of collecting a two, two and a half percent management fee does not really make sense. It does not align us with the outcomes. At Plural, we charge about half the management fee and we think we are much better aligned. And also what it enables us to do is make a few more investments per fund. So in Fund One, we probably made two more investments because of this. Fund Two, we think we'll make four more investments as a result. That's four more shots on goal. That is pretty damn important. And still, we have a fantastic team. We have five GPs. Everyone is being paid well, but not ridiculously.
15:29 Harry Stebbings? What would you say to the GPs who say, hey, I need these fees. I need them for paying benchmark salaries against other salaries for other firms which are the same. I need a platform team. I need a head of talent. I need a, you name it.
15:44 Speaker 00 Earn your right to do it. You know, when hiring people for a startup, you wanna hire the people who are dying to work to build this company. You don't wanna hire the people who are coming here for the biggest salary. Yes, you wanna make sure they are compensated ridiculously well if things go well. I am very proud of the fact that when we built Wise, everybody had stock options, including every customer support agent. The customer support agents who joined in the beginning, they all made a million dollars when Wise went public. I'm super proud of this. Similarly, in venture, the team and GPs, once we have this magic DPI, they should make lots of money. But I don't think people in venture should make a lot of money just because they are deploying capital.
16:26 Harry Stebbings? Do you blame the VCs or do you blame the model? Because fundamentally, it's just a game of human incentives. And when, you know, you said their DPI, liquidity is so backdated now. I mean, it is so elongated in a way that it hasn't been 15 years ago or so. It's really 15 to 17 years before most funds are seeing DPI meaningfully. Do you blame the GPs?
16:48 Speaker 00 It's a game. Don't blame the player, blame the game. It goes both ways. As the industry evolves, maybe things will change. And, you know, we're hopefully doing our part to make this a better game for everyone.
17:00 Harry Stebbings? Do you worry about the elongated window to DPI and liquidity? Especially for some of the projects that you do. These are such hard projects. These are multi-decade journeys. Isn't it even longer for some of these projects?
17:12 Speaker 00 I do, I do worry. We need to come up with better solutions for some of the long liquidity problems. Some of these companies may need billions. But I think at the same time, if the companies are well capitalized, they can reach milestones, then you have liquidity. You know, the best example of all is maybe SpaceX today. It's a private company, has had zero liquidity issues. There is a secondary market always open. So journey in the beginning was very hard, but being able to attract the capital to get to a place where you hit your milestone and make progress. So especially in, in the, what you call crazy companies that we back, it is definitely harder. But I think, you know, we need to make sure these companies are hitting milestones,
17:56 Speaker 00 creating value, even if revenues take longer. And I think there will be opportunities.
18:01 Harry Stebbings? Do you think the 10 and 2 traditional venture model in terms of timeline needs to be updated, especially for a generation of companies that you invest in?
18:09 Speaker 00 I mean, ten years is short. I mean, if I look at, you know, maybe, maybe looking back now, Wise now looks like a simple fintech company. Everyone is doing fintech companies. You know, it took us, we started working on it with Cristo in 2010. We launched beginning of 2011. We went public in 2021. That was a ten-year journey. But also, to be honest, the last three years were probably pretty liquid, even we were private. Let's call it seven years. And maybe for deep tech companies, it's ten to twelve, you know. If you hit the bad patch in the markets, it becomes fifteen. I think we need to recognize this. But I think also, maybe at some point, people just need to be more disciplined in returning some capital early, you know. There are some, some investors out there
18:51 Speaker 00 who are very vocal, you know. I think Fred Wilson has spoken a lot about taking some money off the table.
18:55 Harry Stebbings? We mentioned like fees and that structure as like a misalignment in the industry. Are there any other misalignments, you think, that are very prominent that we don't speak enough about?
19:04 Speaker 00 Skin in the game, fees. I mean, I think there are some other kind of like-
19:08 Harry Stebbings? When you say skin in the game, you mean like the GP commits?
19:12 Speaker 00 I don't think venture should be a rich people's area only. Going back to what we spoke about before, look at for someone, invest their own money. We are the biggest investor in the fund ourselves. And additionally, every deal we do, the lead partner of the deal writes a personal cheque, so we are re-
19:28 Harry Stebbings? Can I be blunt? How much of the fund are you?
19:30 Speaker 00 Collectively, we are the biggest investor in the fund. I don't think we're, we're not going to start talking about numbers, but, you know, you've been in, you're in the business, you know how much the biggest LP in a fund could be as a percent, so you can, you can make some mess.
19:44 Harry Stebbings? And so then on top of that, the lead partner will also write another cheque?
19:47 Speaker 00 Yeah.
19:48 Harry Stebbings? That is unusual.
19:49 Speaker 00 We don't like, the idea of playing with, playing with the house money is something that we're not so keen on, so. The personal cheque, the size of it depends, depends on the individual's position. So for some people it's smaller, for some it's bigger. But we want it to be something which is meaningful. So you think about like, I'm investing my own money in addition to the fund where I'm already an investor. And I think there may be a ritual part as well of wiring from your own account at the same time as we wire from the fund account. Maybe other things to mention, like, are there other weird things in venture, like, where does the idea come from that you should pay your investors legal fees?
20:27 Speaker 00 Well, we pay, we pay our own legal fees. Vast majority of venture deals is in the term sheets that you pay your investors legal fees. What is this about? It comes from the money you give the company, the company pays their legal fees.
20:40 Harry Stebbings? Yeah.
20:41 Speaker 00 Why does it make sense?
20:42 Harry Stebbings? I think it's just the way it's been done.
20:44 Speaker 00 And so we should continue.
20:45 Harry Stebbings? And so you will pay the legal fees for the whole round?
20:48 Speaker 00 No, we pay our own legal fees.
20:50 Harry Stebbings? Okay.
20:50 Speaker 00 Usually the company pays the investor's legal fees. Just, you know, we can, I'll show you what is in the term sheet after the, after the discussion.
20:57 Harry Stebbings? And so you pay your own legal fees and the company pays their own legal fees. Fine. Where do you pay your legal fees from? The management company of the fund?
21:05 Speaker 00 Yes.
21:05 Harry Stebbings? What do you think are the areas of founder-investor conflict that people don't often talk about?
21:13 Speaker 00 Timeline misalignment, investors wanting their money back before the founder, which is a kind of a hard one, like, you know, in a way, if the founder is in it for the next two decades. It's a question of liquidity.
21:27 Harry Stebbings? Has being an investor changed your mind in any major ways about operating? Now you see the other side of the table. Are you like, ah, I actually get it now on this or on that?
21:39 Speaker 00 I think maybe the biggest thing which strikes me is fund composition part. We really don't think we have much control over fund composition.
21:49 Harry Stebbings? What do you mean, sir, when you say fund composition?
21:51 Speaker 00 Like, do you, like, how many SaaS companies, how many carbon companies? You don't want to have the same risk everywhere.
22:00 Harry Stebbings? Yeah.
22:00 Speaker 00 You know, a company's outside like, fuck, we have too many deep tech companies. We need a SaaS company. We're kind of okay mostly with the fact that we follow the most ambitious entrepreneurs, whatever they're building. But I can start sympathizing with the people who are saying, hey, like, you know, you have this great carbon capture company. I love you, but we have three already in the fund. We can't add a fourth one. Because it starts skewing the fund composition. Like you start learning nuances like that, which you know, on a deal by deal basis isn't relevant, but you know, if the whole fund is then subject to the carbon markets, for example, so somebody should think about it then.
22:36 Harry Stebbings? Given the outlandish bets that you take bluntly in terms of outcomes and how ambitious they are, how do you think about portfolio construction in terms of how many you want on a per fund?
22:46 Speaker 00 On a per fund basis, I think fund one, we probably had a model of twenty five to thirty. We ended up with thirty one. So we do pay attention to having diversity in the portfolio.
23:01 Harry Stebbings? Yeah. Do you do reserves?
23:03 Speaker 00 We do reserves as well.
23:04 Harry Stebbings? What's the ratio there?
23:06 Speaker 00 Reserve ratio, fund one, we had limited reserves, which was kind of less than a third. Fund two, we kind of drew the line roughly in the middle. I think probably we end up with slightly less than half our reserves. And the reserves is still something that, you know, we are, we're iterating and learning about the best ways of doing it. I haven't found anyone who says they've nailed it.
23:28 Harry Stebbings? No, I, I, I really also don't like the uniform reserves. There's some people that say, if you get a good round, we'll always write a reserve check. I don't think that's right. I think you should actually be kind of all in or not.
23:39 Speaker 00 Fundamentally, I agree with the idea that just doing your pro rata is a cop out.
23:43 Harry Stebbings? Yeah.
23:44 Speaker 00 You either want to do nothing or triple down. However, I think the real world is slightly more complex. A round happens a year later. So a company has done well. There is this weird signaling thing. Some days I think signaling risk is real, some days I think it's not real. You wanna make sure you have some kind of a more uniform way of doing it through the fund and, you know, we're, we're working on that.
24:08 Harry Stebbings? We're gonna get to decision making. I do just have to ask you, I think the thing where you get in trouble with the reserves is like the communications, where people think that it's coming and then it doesn't come and you surprise them last minute. Now, I work with some of the biggest and best founders who I bring into Combase with us. And the thing that uniformly shocks me in communications is how much harder former founders are or founders are with founders than VCs are. VCs kind of tiptoe around founders. We don't want to get a bad MPS and Taavet, you're doing great, you're doing great. But like, I'm not going to do the reserve check. And former founders or founders are just like, dude, you're not hitting bar. Like, this is not impressive. And they're much more direct and less empathetic in some ways.
24:53 Speaker 00 It's really, I think this is really hard. We try to be honest, but you know, we're also, you know, we're also there for the founders and you know, we will, we kind of promise we're not going to give up before you, but it doesn't mean we're gonna write bad money after good money. We've told our founders, we're here to have GDP level impact. If your company is not doing it, I'm sorry, we should not continue funding it. You may keep on working on it and we'll do our best to help you, but it doesn't guarantee the next checks.
25:22 Harry Stebbings? How do you think about, when you say there, we're here to have GDP level impact, we're going to get to Europe later. But just on the decision making, I hope that you don't have like traditional investment committees. That is like the hailed structure of decision making and venture. How do you think about investment decision making on a per company basis in the firm?
25:40 Speaker 00 It is super simple and we have, it's very, actually very formulaic. There's a couple of things. Every investor can only do a limited number of deals per year. It looks at two to three deals per year is the right pacing. If you come saying, I'm doing deal number six, we're going to be like, hey, Taavet, what's going on? Limited number of shots on goal, skin in the game, so you're willing to commit your personal money. Third one, you write a memo about the deal. The memo starts with, why is this company important to me? Every deal we do, we're testing like, will you be willing to be a co-founder of the company? All the 49 deals we've invested in so far, we feel about all of them that's a partner who did the deal that like, bloody hell, this is so important, so exciting. I would love to be a co-founder of this company.
26:25 Speaker 00 So the memo starts with, why is this important to you? Let's talk about the founder. Why is it important for the founder? How can it be 100X from here? Because if we can't see that, we should not be entertaining it.
26:37 Harry Stebbings? 100X?
26:38 Speaker 00 If we can't imagine 100X, we should not be entertaining the idea of this deal. Many great investments which are five X guaranteed. There are many great investors who should do this. It's not plural. Once we have that memo, we have an investment committee. And given that we don't vote on deals, the committee discussions are very honest, very brutal.
26:58 Harry Stebbings? Pause there on when's the memo sent?
27:02 Speaker 00 We typically start talking about the company way before the memo. Then the lead investor says, I'm writing a memo. We're gonna have an investment committee. We have a brutal discussion at the investment committee about the company. And then the ball goes back to the lead investor.
27:19 Harry Stebbings? On that discussion quality, I think it's most often damaged because not all of the investors or partners' knowledge is at the same level as the lead partner. And so you've got some people who know nothing about the company and some who know a lot. How do you make sure that the partnership's knowledge on the company is at a sufficient enough level to have that quality discussion?
27:41 Speaker 00 Most likely, we've spoken about the company a few times before over the past weeks, during our pipeline meeting, et cetera. There are a lot of companies where more than one partner meets with a team.
27:53 Harry Stebbings? Does every partner need to meet the founder?
27:55 Speaker 00 No, absolutely not. And I think there is probably no company where all the partners met the founders before the deal. It's typically one or few partners that meets a company. But we give a lot of trust to the individual GPs. The bar for being a GP is super high, so we give them a lot of trust. And we kind of felt that it doesn't make sense to hire someone brilliant and tell them, you have to come on Mondays to ask permission to do a deal. Going back, we have the IC, and after the IC, the lead partner goes back and thinks about the feedback. We have many cases where after hearing the feedback, the lead partner is like, hey, guys, you know, Ian, you raised great points.
28:37 Speaker 00 Karina, what you said about your experience in the market is very true, and I'm not gonna do the deal. Many cases where this happens.
28:44 Harry Stebbings? What's the percentage time? I know it's unfair, but like, is it like seventy, thirty, fifty, fifty, eighty, twenty?
28:50 Speaker 00 It's probably more like seventy thirty, seventy percent gets done, thirty doesn't get done. But, you know, we're not really, we're not quite like, I'm not sure measuring this is the right thing and start setting maybe wrong incentives. And by the way, sometimes also there is a time factor. We look at a deal, doesn't make sense. The lead investor comes back like, hey, I'm not doing it now. Six months goes by and like, hey, guys, I'm gonna have a new IC. The company has, you know, done what they promised or something has changed and I wanna lean in now, so let's have a discussion again.
29:21 Harry Stebbings? How do you feel about compressed timelines for deals? When founders are going, hey, I'm sorry, I'm running a process and I need answers by Friday. How do you as a partnership feel by being put under that urgency?
29:33 Speaker 00 I don't think it's happened to us.
29:35 Harry Stebbings? We do see different types of deals.
29:38 Speaker 00 I mean, I completely respect the fact that we need to communicate to the founders how long something is gonna take and if we tell them that, hey, you know, we're gonna have an IC on Tuesday and we'll tell you on Wednesday, it makes sense. We can get things done very quickly. We've probably gotten things done within a number of days. And if something is super competitive, we need to move, we need to decide soon. We believe that we tell the founder what our process looks like. We try to make it compatible. Twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, there was a lot of deals done, you know, under the gun, basically. I did some myself personally, made some big losses. We even may have done some together, but you know, it's.
30:22 Harry Stebbings? They were great. Those were the winners.
30:24 Speaker 00 Definitely. So I don't see the crazy companies moving so quickly. That's a momentum spreadsheet investing which starts moving way quicker.
30:33 Harry Stebbings? Tell me, do you have some form of scoring voting mechanism in the partnership? To give that very objective feedback to the lead partner to take home?
30:43 Speaker 00 Not really. We we talk about it. We share our feedback very, very kind of directly.
30:49 Harry Stebbings? Do you think you should, so we are the same as you, people say to me, it's very helpful to have a historical record. So you can see how the partnership picks and thinks over time and you can look back and go, Tarve, historically.
31:04 Speaker 00 We keep, we keep notes directionally because I think it does help calibrate and, you know, I think in an ideal world, we want to come back to it Europe later and say, hey, let's recall that I see and how, what do we learn from it?
31:18 Harry Stebbings? Is there anything that you think you should change about your decision making process?
31:21 Speaker 00 Absolutely not. We're brilliant.
31:23 Harry Stebbings? On a reserve side, how does the reserves decision making look?
31:27 Speaker 00 So reserve, like follow on checks, we flips, we flip it around. On the reserve decisions, like follow on checks, as we call it. So lead investor writes a memo, comes back with a proposal, but this needs a majority vote. It's the idea of marking up your own homework, kind of the idea of the fundies, we write whatever, twenty five, thirty first checks. Everyone does four, five, six, seven, like doesn't matter who does more or less really. But when we talk about the reserves, that's a finite allocation, a finite asset we need to divide up. And you cannot do that unless you take collective feedback, collective input. We think these ones are are done best collectively.
32:10 Speaker 00 We're trying to balance, you know, how could we keep a bunch of reserves for the best companies? But you don't know the best companies the next round. You might not know it's the round after next either. How do we do our share to help the companies forward in the next fundraise? Which oftentimes means doing the prorata, which I think is a cop out, but doing that. And then, you know, balancing that with, can we keep larger reserves for deploying checks in companies where we are actually, you know, at that time, maybe not confident of a hundred X because we've seen ten X already. But if at that point you seize a momentum and you feel, you know, maybe it's fifty X left, thirty X left, you want to deploy, deploy more capital.
32:51 Harry Stebbings? On the deal structure itself, we spoke about misalignments earlier. Lick pref, liquidation preferences are often now more and more under scrutiny. Maybe it's, I'm seeing in the US, but people are now often doing deals with no lick pref. How do you feel about lick pref as a former founder and now VC?
33:10 Speaker 00 I don't think it makes that much sense. We are here for unlimited upside, one X downside. The difference is purely marginal. We spoke about this when we were starting to play around with the idea for Plural and thinking like, what are the structural misalignments in the industry we want to fix? I think this is one of the next things we should work on. We haven't, ultimately haven't felt it important enough. And I also, to be honest, as a founder, it feels shit. But also as a founder, it doesn't matter. As a founder, you're also in here for the long-term upside. Let me rewind. What we need to think about in the industry is how much capital gets deployed for a size of an outcome. Founders too often think fundraising and large fundraises is the ultimate measure of success,
33:55 Speaker 00 you know, which I think is BS. Something that hasn't been spoken widely, even though Wise supposedly raised a shit ton of money, we probably raised a billion or more. Wise only raised 160 million primary capital and we only burned through about 100 million of primary capital. 100 million primary capital to build in excess of 10 billion of value. If you look at companies out there where you've raised 2.5 billion to create 10 billion of value. And then if you deploy, if you, if your company raises a billion at 5 billion, with the possibility of getting to 8, 9, 10, maybe the lick pref is different. But early-stage lick pref, I don't know, it doesn't really make sense, but.
34:35 Harry Stebbings? Another element of term sheets is also boards and involvements on boards. Do you need a board seat with every deal?
34:41 Speaker 00 We do not love boards, I think is a fair starting point. The things that I don't like about boards, they oftentimes become way too big, way too quickly. Your C round investor takes a board seat, your A round investor takes a board seat, your B round investor takes, your C and D. So you end up with five VCs on the board and two founders. I don't think these boardrooms are any good. The other thing you want.
35:06 Harry Stebbings? Unpack that more, why are they not good?
35:09 Speaker 00 Because you have five people with a relatively similar, similar mindset, similar view of the world. You know, they will be looking at maybe the guy with the biggest fund or then the guy who wants to be the smartest guy. In the room, they will dominate too much of the discussion. So right boards are slightly more balanced. I'm very much in favor of the idea that founders who are building companies, at some point, it might be good for them to be on one board with another person building a business. You know, I think it's good for both.
35:38 Harry Stebbings? We're seeing an increased dilution sensitivity from founders, where especially at the early stage, they don't want to dilute more than, say, a 10% on the first round or the first proper seed round. Are you seeing this increased sensitivity around dilution from founders?
35:52 Speaker 00 We are commoditized product, Harry. VCs are a commodity. You can press them down. Someone told me early on, the only person to fight for your ownership is yourself. No VC will ever fight for the founder's ownership. You need to fight for it. So there's a lot of truth in it. You know, the founders, they need to fight for the ownership, absolutely. The other side of it is, and still easy, if you're a good fundraiser, you're building something which is deemed to be hot. You're building an AI SaaS company. It's easy to put a party around together, dilute 10%, and nobody gives a shit about the business. So I think you need to think about, do you have people involved who will help you through the good times and the bad times? In the good times, you don't care about their advice, you don't need their help,
36:37 Speaker 00 but you want someone to pick up the phone when it's a bad times. There are plenty of stories out there of respectable VCs not picking up the phone when it's a bad times. Do not be that asshole. So, but I think it also goes back to founders of like, actually creating a round where people have enough skin in the game to feel interested, to feel the company is important.
37:00 Harry Stebbings? There's so many things I just wanted to pick up on. The best founders do not need the help of the VC. Keith, your boy said it on the show, to the point of like, we're there for founders, we're here to help you, founder value add. How do you reflect on the best founders don't need you?
37:14 Speaker 00 Fundamentally, I agree with this, but I think, you know, we have the ability to be very deeply involved if you need us and get out of the way rest of the time.
37:24 Harry Stebbings? On the early stage being art, not a science. What worries me is like the multi-stage funds have so much money now. You're eight billion, 10 billion, Andreessen raising 20 billion. Pre-seed and seed is literally just a massively high-velocity option game. Five on 50, fine, doesn't matter. It's 5 million, we just want to have a chance to write 25 at the A and 100 at the B. And all that matters is it could be the next day to bricks. And actually, seed is being destroyed by this high-volume game.
37:51 Speaker 00 I don't think this game will last. I think the best founders will realise that getting a check on good terms from a multi-stage firm is by no means a guarantee of raising money from them in the future. I think they will, I think the game will change. The industry will change, the game will change over time. More capital coming in. The question is, are we going to have more founders? Like, how do you keep it in balance if you have more capital than founders are getting better terms? If you have more founders and it flips?
38:20 Harry Stebbings? Do you think we have an excess supply of capital for the founder base that we have today?
38:26 Speaker 00 Yes, in certain sectors which are deemed hot. You know, 2021, if you were an X Y's employee, everybody would write a check to you without even meeting you. Does that make any sense? No. Same happened to Google employees maybe five years before. I do think that you need to separate kind of the early pre-product market investing from the later stage. But, but I guess I think also same time, it's safe to believe that the returns will be coming down over time as asset class matures, becomes bigger.
38:58 Harry Stebbings? Do you think they will come down as the asset class matures and becomes bigger? Or they will go up as outcome sizes become bigger and trillion-dollar companies become more and more commonplace? I mean, trillion-dollar companies, 10 years ago, we were like, Now there's several.
39:10 Speaker 00 The best investors will continue generating best returns, but I think the median is probably gonna come down over time.
39:20 Harry Stebbings? If Plural does not hit the heights that you would like it to, what will be the reason?
39:24 Speaker 00 Europe did not have enough ambitious entrepreneurs. It's them, not us.
39:29 Harry Stebbings? Speaking about putting in the effort, I do wanna move to Europe. You said that now is the time of all times for European sovereignty. On the why now, why is it so important now more than ever that Europe stands on its own two feet, do you think?
39:43 Speaker 00 Even zooming out, when we were starting to think about Plural in 2021, we raised our first one in 2022. So thinking of creating Plural, we had two things which were really important: European sovereignty and GDP level impact. That was true four years ago, and it's even more true now. Two things which have happened in between. One is the Ukraine war, which, you know, before that, investing in defence felt strange. After the Ukraine war, it feels like we need to do this in Europe. And I think the other thing, second thing which has changed is, I think really what happened in the White House in February, where Zelensky was taken for a grilling, and
40:23 Speaker 00 the way that US cannot be trusted anymore to be the protector of Europe. This kind of results in a world where we need to rebuild a lot of things on our own. We need to build our defence sector, we need to build our space sector, we need an independent energy sector, we need security, intelligence, a lot of sectors where I think we're gonna be living in a tripolar world. So there's gonna be an American version, let's call it Anduril, there is a European version, Helsing, a Chinese version, defence, space, energy, security, intelligence, everything, all of the critical services. And these critical services, they make up a vast portion of GDP.
41:08 Harry Stebbings? Do you think our relationship with the US has fundamentally changed?
41:11 Speaker 00 I think it has.
41:12 Harry Stebbings? Does that worry you?
41:13 Speaker 00 We probably were living in a naive world before this. We thought human nature has changed and, you know, we're now post-Cold War in a different world. And maybe history could have worked out differently, but I think now the world is pretty similar. And the idea that we overly rely on the US probably was already wrong back then. I think we all need to punch our weight. I believe we are better collectively. Estonia is better part of Europe. UK is better being part of Europe. Europe is better together with the US. But I think we all need to collectively put in the effort. And maybe we were relying slightly too much on the US before.
41:56 Harry Stebbings? When you look at NATO contributions and 75% coming from the US, like we massively over-relied on the US.
42:02 Speaker 00 Yeah, that's very kind of clear. But I think also what we're seeing now with the US saying, you know, we'll sell you a 10% worth fighter jet. Who's, who is ever going to buy US defense equipment? I, I mentioned Teton before doing monitoring patients. Do we want the US patient monitoring solution in our, in our hospitals? Do we want, we have a company which is making.
42:25 Harry Stebbings? So why do we not want a US patient monitoring system? We have US data storage systems, we have US.
42:30 Speaker 00 What if they turn this off when they don't, don't feel good about Europe anymore? Do we want US robots roaming around our streets, collecting intelligence information? I think it's pretty clear we don't want Chinese ones.
42:42 Harry Stebbings? But what stage do you draw the line? Then you are living in a completely compartmentalized, de-globalized world where you could say that for everything. You, you, you have to.
42:50 Speaker 00 I think I'm hopeful that.
42:52 Harry Stebbings? You know, Germany are buying a billion dollars of energy a day in some circumstances from other countries because they are so woefully inadequately supplied by energy.
43:02 Speaker 00 We are going into a world of decoupling for a while. I'm kind of hopeful that Western world will come closer together after going through a rough patch. These are complex topics.
43:15 Harry Stebbings? Why do we need national sovereignty or like continent sovereignty around your Helsing's for Europe and Andurels for the US? Why is that important? Andurels sell in Europe?
43:25 Speaker 00 What if the US says we're going to disable Android in Europe? You need independence. If we can't guarantee that Android solution works regardless of what people do in the US, we cannot trust it. And I think if we're thinking about anything else which has access to vast amount of information, if we talk about anything that gets visual, audio, information, robots, cameras, we probably want to control who has access to the information we gather and who has access to a kill switch.
43:58 Harry Stebbings? Robots, intense information, defence, space, energy. Do we have anywhere near the supply of capital currently today to fund this incredible depth of sovereignty supply needed?
44:15 Speaker 00 Do you remember how much capital Germany allocated to this the last couple of weeks of February? I think it was between 1.5 and 2 trillion that Germany allocated just after the Zelensky White House meetings. These discussions are happening everywhere in Europe today. And the reality is we probably cannot use 2 trillion today. We need a trillion this year, two next year, over time. So I'm feeling-
44:41 Harry Stebbings? Is that the right approach? Germany saying, here's a trillion. What does that mean?
44:46 Speaker 00 We need to work together in Europe. But we need to work together in ways which are slightly more, slightly faster than the way we've done it before. Like if you think about some of the defence collaborations that have happened in Europe, they're very painful. Italy says, we will take part in this project, but this widget has to be produced in Italy. And that makes things very slow. Like if you look at how war has happened in Ukraine, you need to be building it constantly. I think we need to be a little bit more modern about the way collaboration happens. But we do need to collaborate around Europe. And I think there's the capital. Everyone is realising that defence contributions, you know, we were not at 2% in Europe before. Estonia was ahead and Poland was ahead.
45:29 Speaker 00 But, you know, we need to get to 3, 4, 5% everywhere. And same in other critical industries.
45:35 Harry Stebbings? Estonia, Finland, Baltic countries have been ahead for a while. To what extent is it a very real concern for you about Putin wanting to expand beyond where he is now?
45:45 Speaker 00 I think it's a very serious, very real concern. We should be living under the assumption that whatever happened in Ukraine now, Russia will try in another country over the next years, and we need to be ready for this.
46:00 Harry Stebbings? Are we too far behind already? When you look at China and when you look at the supply of talent that they have, the depth of talent that they have, the control that the CCP has, the funding that they have, and America and what America have shown in the last few years, have we already faded into irrelevance?
46:17 Speaker 00 If we go back to the question around defence and timeline of a couple of years, I think if these budgets are unlocked soon, we can actually still get a lot done. The urgency is higher now than it's ever been. Politicians at the highest levels are thinking about it in the same ways today. So I'm hopeful that they will come up with the right answers, but it's by far not guaranteed.
46:42 Harry Stebbings? I don't think the political structures allow them to come up with the right answers in a way that's best for us in the long term. They are focused on a four-year reelection cycle, and a lot of the projects that we're talking about are 10, 15 years out. And actually, the capital requirements and prioritization strategies needed don't favor reelection. That's what worries me.
47:02 Speaker 00 I think it's a correct thing to worry about, but I think also we need to be more entrepreneurial and find ways to build things quicker. And I think it's doable.
47:12 Harry Stebbings? If we go through like problems that we need to overcome, what do you think are the single biggest barriers we need to overcome in the race against China and the US?
47:20 Speaker 00 A lot of this comes down to sufficient early-stage capital for deep-tech companies. The crazy investments that we like to do in plural. You know, if we're looking at, for example, Proxima Fusion building a fusion power plant, the most advanced fusion company in Europe. The new German government has said they want the first, not one, but two fusion power plants to be built in Germany. So we're seeing there is a political will to act now as well.
47:50 Harry Stebbings? More deep tech cash earlier in Europe. We're not ambitious enough. We often get told, hey, we don't work hard enough. The other one is, oh, you're happy with a 50 million sale or an.
48:00 Speaker 00 Harry, we don't brag about it as Americans do. That's the difference between Europeans and Americans. We're too humble. And I think we need to learn to become better marketers. Absolutely. Maybe we need to hire American marketers.
48:13 Harry Stebbings? Another that I never have an answer for, and it's like the regulatory hurdles that come from a fragmented Europe being a barrier to stopping us. To what extent do you think that is a very valid problem?
48:24 Speaker 00 No entrepreneur ever has not started a company because of regulation. The best entrepreneurs, they go through walls made out of titanium to make it happen. It's an excuse. But on the other hand, we need even more to make Europe a more unified market. Labor, capital. Why do we need to have a stock exchange in Amsterdam? Great companies listed, sir. London, Estonia. I would love her to be.
48:53 Harry Stebbings? As an Estonian stock exchange?
48:54 Speaker 00 Unfortunately, yes. I would love her to be a single global stock exchange. Maybe we could build it on the thing called blockchain.
49:02 Harry Stebbings? I asked Julia Hoggatt, the CEO of the London Stock Exchange, whether we should have a European stock exchange. When you look at the stock exchanges across Europe, they're all subpar and they're all subscale. I was met with a frosty reaction. Do you regret going public in London?
49:17 Speaker 00 I don't regret going public in London. I think Wise is an example of a company that is well known amongst investor universe that can go public anywhere. Addie even public in Amsterdam, whoever knew they have a stock exchange. They've done very well. Wise has done very well in the UK. It's been a passive up and down, but that's something which I think would have happened similarly in the US.
49:43 Harry Stebbings? Do you think you would have a pricing premium if you're in the US?
49:46 Speaker 00 I don't believe Wise would have a pricing premium in the US. We spent a lot of time agonizing this over the years before the IPO. So I think for Wise, it has worked out well. However, structurally, we have a lot of issues here. We don't have enough. Retail participation in the UK. We don't have enough institutional participation from pension funds. I do think the UK stock market is subprime in that sense. If you're a retail product, you want your consumers to buy you, so it makes sense to go public in the US. But I also think in some sense, maybe some of this is a bit of a wrong thing to spend so much energy on. Why would I go public in the US? Result would be the same. We would not be paying more tax in the US. We would still be headquartered here.
50:30 Speaker 00 So sometimes it feels to me, people love to talk about this, but I'm not sure how big is the actual difference for certain companies.
50:38 Harry Stebbings? Do you think Nick should go public in London? He's built the business in London. The team primarily is London HQ'd. Do you think you have a duty to go public in London?
50:48 Speaker 00 I don't know. I don't know what duty Nick feels, so I'm not, I can't answer on this. Here's what I would tell Nick. If he wants to build a big business in the US, then he should go public in the US.
50:58 Harry Stebbings? Cass, you're a very wise, thoughtful, premeditated person in a nice way. When you go public also, after lockups, you have liquidity. How did making money change your mindset, approach to life, approach to relationships? How did it change who you are?
51:16 Speaker 00 Frankly, I think it has not changed. I have generated liquidity through the years from Wise. I mean, not until we were valued at billions. I didn't sell a single share of secondary. But after that, I've done it in a, I would say, systematic way. I was also lucky to make money from being the first employee at Skype from stock options. So in that sense, I've been financially independent since 2002, 2003.
51:47 Harry Stebbings? Does it change your mindset, though?
51:49 Speaker 00 I'm all interested in the upside and I'm interested in what are the good things I can do with the returns. I don't need to go to work for the monthly paycheck. I think that is an incredibly powerful moment for everyone.
52:01 Harry Stebbings? If you were to sit in a room with the leaders of Europe and say, US, China, we need to compete. This is what we should do from here to change. Are there any policy changes, changes that you would recommend to make us as competitive as possible?
52:17 Speaker 00 More capital for deep tech investment. Look at encouraging entrepreneurship, reducing the regulatory burden. And I think the way we do government purchasing decisions, whether it's in defence or other areas, the government should be the biggest customer for European startups.
52:36 Harry Stebbings? Listen, I want to move into a quick fire because otherwise I could talk to you all day. So I say a short statement, you give me your immediate thoughts. Sound okay?
52:43 Speaker 00 Yeah, let's try.
52:44 Harry Stebbings? What do you believe that most around you disbelieve?
52:46 Speaker 00 Estonia is a fantastic country. We have the biggest number of unicorns per capita and nobody knows this.
52:52 Harry Stebbings? Why do you think that is? What is in the waters of Estonia?
52:55 Speaker 00 We had great education during Soviet times. We had an early start, thanks to Skype. The ecosystem acceleration from an early success story is humongous.
53:06 Harry Stebbings? Which company today in Europe do you think will be the biggest accelerator in the way that you mentioned there was Skype?
53:13 Speaker 00 There seems to be a lot of companies coming from Revolut today, which is pretty, pretty cool to see. I don't know how many of them are doing exciting things compared to do, trying to do fintech widgets, but maybe today it's Revolut. I mean, Wise has a fair share of startups, Monzo has been great, Spotify, I don't know, off the top of my head.
53:32 Harry Stebbings? Spotify's been pretty good. What buy in the public markets would you make for a 10-year period? What's your like buy and hold?
53:40 Speaker 00 I have never bought a public stock. That's really hard for 10 years.
53:43 Harry Stebbings? Yeah.
53:43 Speaker 00 I mean, actually, maybe I would go very classic Berkshire Hathaway for 10 years. That is gonna compound in a much more predictable way if it's the only thing I'm allowed to hold.
53:56 Harry Stebbings? I love that. You haven't bought a public stock?
53:58 Speaker 00 Lots of private stocks.
53:59 Harry Stebbings? What have you changed your mind on in the last 12 months?
54:02 Speaker 00 I've become a whole lot more optimistic on Europe. I think frankly, everything that has happened in relation to US, I've become so much more bullish on Europe. We will rebuild the critical industries.
54:13 Harry Stebbings? When you look at your best investment, we mentioned Bolt earlier. Is there another one that you think will be the standout?
54:19 Speaker 00 Maybe some TESIA. I made a pretty big angel investment early on when it was two crazy guys. AI was, I don't think so abbreviation AI was used. They were doing video generation using smart engineers. They've done an amazing job and still early in the journey.
54:39 Harry Stebbings? Tell me, if everything goes to plan with Plural, what happens? What does the world look like then?
54:44 Speaker 00 Trillion dollar European companies.
54:47 Harry Stebbings? In ten years?
54:48 Speaker 00 We will see.
54:48 Harry Stebbings? Tal, listen, thank you so much for this. I love it when conversations bluntly don't go to plan. It's always the joy of what I do. I, I, you know, I've wanted to do this one for a long time, so I really appreciate you taking the time. This has been fantastic.
55:01 Speaker 00 Me too. Thank you, Harry.
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