Pod Insights The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch 20VC: Managing the Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund in the World: $1.55 Trn of Assets & Owning 1.5% of all Listed Companies with Nicolai Tangen, CEO @ Norges Bank Investment Management About this episode Nicolai Tangen is the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world with $1.55 Trn in assets, owning on average, 1.5% of every listed company. Tangen was previously Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer in AKO Capital, which he founded in 2005. Prior to this, Tangen was a partner and senior analyst at Egerton Capital and an equity analyst at Cazenove & Co. In Today's Episode with Nicolai Tangen We Discuss: From Religious Town in Norway to Leading the Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund: What was Nicolai like as a child? How would his parents have described him? Why does Nicolai think that loners have a greater chance/ability to make money? What does Nicolai know now that he wishes he could tell a 20-year-old Nicolai? The Top 10 Questions: 1. US Tech Firm Concentration: Is Nicolai concerned by the concentration of enterprise value in US tech firms? Have incumbents ever been as strong as they are today? 2. Impact of AI: What does Nicolai believe the impact of AI will be on society and productivity? What is his approach to investing in it moving forward? 3. Bitcoin: Why does Nicolai not want to hold Bitcoin? Why does he not understand it? 4. China: What would need to happen for China to be investable? How will the China situation play out? 5. Europe: Does Nicolai believe Europe is so far behind the US? Why? What can we do to improve? 6. Climate Change: How does Nicolai approach investing in climate? What works? What does not? 7. Sam Altman: Would Nicolai invest in Sam's new $7Trn project? What are some of Nicolai's biggest lessons from the time he has spent with Sam? 8. Investment Psychology: How does Nicolai retain a neutral investor psychology? How does he not get too up when doing well and too low when not doing well? 9. Investing Lessons: What are Nicolai's biggest investment hits and misses? What did he learn from them? 10. The Future: Why is Nicolai so optimistic about the future? What is he concerned about? How will we overcome our greatest challenges?
Transcript 10,015 words · 3 speakers
Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
0:00 Speaker 00 I truly think there will be much tougher times ahead. I think it'll be difficult to generate returns and everybody needs to know that. What I look at is how much fear and how much greed is there out there? When you look at the best investors in the world, they are stubborn because you need to be stubborn and you need to be able to sit with the oppositions. The people who fail are people who try to do too many things too fast.
0:19 Harry Stebbings? This is 20 VC with me, Harry Stebbings, and today's show is different. We are not joined by a VC or a founder. We're joined by the CEO of the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. With over 1.5 trillion in assets, they own around 1.5% of every listed company. I'm very thrilled and honoured to welcome Nikolai Tangen, CEO of Norga's Bank Investment Management. This was an incredible show to do live and in person in London. And let me know what you think on Twitter at Harry Stebbings. But before we begin, I need to tell you about Hive. 2024 is shaping up to be a big year for the markets with a number of iconic unicorns rumored to be going public. Whether you're a fund manager or invest solo, Hive is the best way for you to access the coming wave of IPOs
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3:12 Speaker 02 You have now arrived at your destination.
3:15 Harry Stebbings? Nikolai, I'm so excited for this. I've watched so many of your shows before, so thank you so much for joining me today.
3:21 Speaker 00 Thanks for inviting me.
3:21 Harry Stebbings? Now, I want to start with a little bit on you. So it's a bit of a weird one. What were you like as a child?
3:27 Speaker 00 I think I was unfortunately pretty normal and slightly introverted, read a lot, I didn't have any friends. My brother was really worried that I would perhaps never have any proper future, given that I didn't socialize so much.
3:38 Harry Stebbings? Did you feel that you didn't have friends? I didn't have many friends.
3:41 Speaker 00 No, I didn't need, I had my, I had my books. I just didn't need that many friends. So my friends kind of came later in life.
3:46 Harry Stebbings? Did you always have this self-assured confidence? Like I was, no, I'm being serious. Like I didn't have any friends and I felt like a loner and it was hard.
3:53 Speaker 00 Yeah, I thought it was pretty good to be a loner, actually. And yeah, so I probably had a bit of confidence there.
3:58 Harry Stebbings? Did you enjoy school?
3:59 Speaker 00 Loved it.
4:00 Harry Stebbings? You did.
4:01 Speaker 00 Very nice.
4:01 Harry Stebbings? Were you good at school?
4:02 Speaker 00 I was pretty, I was, I was quite good. I was quite good.
4:04 Harry Stebbings? How would your teachers describe you?
4:06 Speaker 00 Studious, concentrated, probably ambitious.
4:10 Harry Stebbings? When did you find the love of finance?
4:12 Speaker 00 Oh, that was early because I was pretty keen on making money, right? So you know what I think? I think a lot of loners, they are keen to make money to show the world, right?
4:21 Harry Stebbings? I never felt good enough until it was like the way of proving that I was worth something.
4:24 Speaker 00 I think inferiority complexes should be really celebrated. I think it's a huge thing. That, that is what drives pretty much all of us. So I wanted to make some money and I started to collect empty bottles, you know, in Scandinavia. You get refunds for these kind of things. I sold flowers at restaurants. I did all these kind of things to make a bit of money.
4:41 Harry Stebbings? When did you make your first real money?
4:43 Speaker 00 Well, that was really late, actually. I didn't do my first job, which was in the city. And I did when I joined a hedge fund and that was, you know, in like ninety seven. I was between thirty two and thirty five.
4:56 Harry Stebbings? Did it make you happy?
4:57 Speaker 00 Um, it, it gives you some freedom to do what you want. So what I did when I had made some money was to take time off and go back to university and I spent a couple of years studying art history. And that made me happy. So I'm, it's not the money that makes you happy, but there's just a kind of freedom it gives you. But it wasn't an enormous amount, but I had enough to take a couple of years break.
5:14 Harry Stebbings? I think a lot of people always say, when I have this, I will be happy. When I have that, I'll be happy. Did you have that in mind?
5:20 Speaker 00 Oh, it's a total fallacy. The thing is that if you're not happy now, you will never be happy. They have this study where they ask students at Harvard. So do you have a good life? It's just, no, I haven't got a particularly good life just now, but, but I will soon. It's just that now I just have got a new job. They ask the same people ten years later. It's just like, no, I'm not so happy now, but I will be soon. And thirty years later, and the thing is that if you're not happy, you will never be happy.
5:41 Harry Stebbings? And so for you, going back to that child who was a little bit of a loner, did that change over time? And I hope that's okay for you all. And this is not the schedule that we planned.
5:49 Speaker 00 I don't know. I don't know. I don't know what happened there, but I just became a bit more social and slightly more old going. I grew up in a part of Norway, which was really religious, but then I kind of changed tack a bit and I became more social, got more friends. And, you know, I just went out a bit more.
6:04 Harry Stebbings? What do you think was the biggest needle moving moment in your career? You mentioned the entry into hedge funds there.
6:09 Speaker 00 Yeah, I think it was when I started at Wharton, which is a US university specializing in finance. Because that really was a different type of ambitions. You know, Norway is the kind of place where you're not supposed to be too ambitious, at least not overtly. Then you get to America and it's just like, hey, we want to conquer the world. And you are allowed to say it when you are like twenty two. And I remember in class, this guy said, you know, what should I do? What should I, how should I succeed? And he's just like, yeah, but what do you want to do? I just want to conquer the world. And everybody applauded. And for me, it was just like a complete unreal situation.
6:43 Harry Stebbings? Did you adopt that mindset from that?
6:45 Speaker 00 No, I haven't. I don't really have that mindset, but there was, there was an element of that, which I thought was pretty cool.
6:50 Harry Stebbings? So for a child of your own or for a young person asking you for advice, what would you say to them about doing an MBA?
6:56 Speaker 00 Well, personally, I'm not a big believer in MBAs, except from if you have some kind of job and need to change direction. And you feel that, you know, I'm in the wrong place. I just need to completely do something else. Then an MBA is good. It's good as a kind of shifting mechanism, but in itself, I think not so necessary.
7:12 Harry Stebbings? When you decided to join your role now, was it an easy decision to leave your prior, in which you started and join as CEO?
7:20 Speaker 00 Yeah, it wasn't so difficult actually, because I was on my way to do something else. I had started a hedge fund, been running it for fifteen years. The learning curve was a bit, was a bit flatter and I had decided to kind of move on, pass on the firm to the next generation and then go back to university and study. And then this job came up in the sovereign wealth fund and I thought, you know what? This is just incredible. Combining my love for asset management, organizational development, and then do something good for the country. That was not so difficult, but it wasn't easy to get the job, right?
7:46 Harry Stebbings? What was the, what is the process to be CEO of the largest sovereign?
7:50 Speaker 00 Well, you, you, you apply and you go through a lot of interviews. And then, of course, the local media was a bit skeptical because nobody knew me. And the Harris is a known guy coming from London and it's a very prestigious position in the country and it's not so. Yeah, it just wasn't so straightforward.
8:06 Harry Stebbings? Did the enormity of the position hit you? As we said, it is the largest in the world.
8:11 Speaker 00 I don't think it's really ever hit me because it's, it's a very large fund. But I don't think about, I don't think about the size of it because the size is kind of unreal.
8:19 Harry Stebbings? So do you know what I love? It's on your website, you have the ticker.
8:22 Speaker 00 Yeah.
8:23 Harry Stebbings? And I mean, it's, it's insane.
8:25 Speaker 00 Yeah, it's insane. So it's, so it's a ticker showing the real.
8:27 Harry Stebbings? US debt.
8:28 Speaker 00 Absolutely. So it's, we, there is a ticker on the website. It shows the, the real, real time value of the fund. And I thought before I joined, it's just like, you know what? This is not a good idea. This makes us very short term in our thinking. We should get this away now. If we had taken that away from the website, there would have been a revolution in the country. They would have hated it. It's the most watched number in the country. It's very, very important and it's kind of cool. What it also does, it just shows how transparent the fund is. No secrets. Everything is open. Everything is out there.
8:58 Harry Stebbings? I've watched many of your interviews where you've interviewed some and then somewhere you've been interviewed. And you said before, we might have some lackluster returns actually for the next few years because of the environment that we're in.
9:08 Speaker 00 Totally.
9:09 Harry Stebbings? Given the importance of that number to the country and it being the most watched number. Is there a lot of pushback? Is there a lot of anger about a very kind of open, listen, there will be lackluster returns and that's what it is?
9:21 Speaker 00 No, I think they like the fact that we do some expectation management. It's important to manage expectations. I truly think there will be much tougher times ahead. I think it'll be difficult to generate returns and everybody needs to know that.
9:34 Harry Stebbings? Why is it going to get so much tougher? A lot of people are feeling optimistic.
9:37 Speaker 00 Personally, I think it will take longer for rates to come down. I think there are geopolitical tensions which add to inflation.
9:43 Harry Stebbings? Why will it take longer for rates to come down?
9:45 Speaker 00 Because there are some underlying, there are some underlying wage increases. And then when companies have to pay higher wages, they offset that by increasing their own selling prices. And then you have some climate effects, you know, there are worse harvests. You have some geopolitical effects, there is more producing things close to home, which is more expensive. So you just have a lot of things like that pulling in the same direction.
10:07 Harry Stebbings? Okay, and so these kind of underlying inflationary pressures create a challenging environment going forward. Is that like a three year period? Is that like a five year period in your mind? When does that change?
10:16 Speaker 00 I think it could last for quite some time.
10:18 Harry Stebbings? Like 10 years?
10:19 Speaker 00 I don't know. I think the next five years could be, could be much more difficult.
10:23 Harry Stebbings? How does one change their investing as a result of that?
10:26 Speaker 00 By becoming more long term, by focusing in on quality companies which can compound by looking for market share gainers. And by becoming more contrarian, so taking the opportunities that comes from volatility.
10:38 Harry Stebbings? I always love Warren Buffett's investing style, which is, you know, I invest in things that don't change over time. People will always love like a Mars bar or ketchup or whatever that may be.
10:47 Speaker 00 Or a Coca Cola.
10:48 Harry Stebbings? Or a Coca Cola. When you think about like market share gainers, what does that mean to you? Because like one would say Google, but some would say Chat G P T, you've spoken Sam, challenges that.
10:58 Speaker 00 Yeah, I think so. I'm not really thinking about technology because that's a bit too complicated for me. I mean, that's because that changes so fast and God knows who is going to be the winner in in A I or chips or these kind of things. I'm more thinking about kind of steady Eddie market share gainers. Cosmetics company which takes half a percent market share every year or things like that.
11:17 Harry Stebbings? Does that not get threatened by technology too? It is a world not becoming.
11:20 Speaker 00 Well, I think some companies and some products are not threatened by technology. I think, for instance, look at cosmetics, you know, women have painted themselves in the face for two thousand years. Do you think they will stop? Do you think all women will say, listen, now we're going to have a level playing field? Nobody's ever going to use any cosmetics. I just don't think there are, and I think it's tied into it's tied into vanity. So for instance, there, I don't think technology will move it. Now, an elevator company, are we going to invent a way the the way we need to move up in the building? I just don't think so. I think we'll always need elevators.
11:48 Harry Stebbings? I agree on the elevator side. I I got nothing for you on that one. On on the makeup, you know, TikTok shop enables creators to create their own brands.
11:56 Speaker 00 Oh, totally. Absolutely.
11:58 Harry Stebbings? Being a really unbundled so much of L V M H or any of the large providers market share.
12:03 Speaker 00 Yeah, well, I just think that when the brands become pretty big, they will be acquired by the very large companies. And you see it, for instance, in the spirits business. So, you know, let's say you're a good looking actor, you launch your tequila brand, Los Amigos, or whatever it's called. And when it reached a billion, somebody's going to buy it.
12:21 Harry Stebbings? You know, I watched one of your shows, I think it was at Davos, where you were interviewed and you said, yeah, the question I like to ask is, what's on your mind? And I was like. Why don't we turn the tables? What's on your mind?
12:32 Speaker 00 You know, just now, I um I've been thinking a lot about uh we must not make small problems big. You know, there are some really small problems in life and we are just making them big. But equally, there are some really big problems and we must not make them small.
12:46 Harry Stebbings? What do you think of the small problems?
12:48 Speaker 00 But ju- just like the everyday small tiddly things which take up too much time, too much of your thinking. Not important things and you should not be spending time on it. And there are some big things, I mean, climate, big issue, very big issue. And for sure, we are not spending enough time on it.
13:03 Harry Stebbings? Is the time horizon challenging for you? Cause you invest along such a long time horizon.
13:07 Speaker 00 So, time is really interesting. I think it's really funny. So let's say you are twenty years old, you are in such a hurry, okay? Like three months, it's an eternity. Now, you get older, I'm fifty seven, I'm soon about to die. Suddenly, I'm so patient. Why? I mean, I I haven't got that many years left compared to a twenty year old. Yet, I'm much more patient than this young person. Why is that? It makes no sense. So your time horizon changes when it shouldn't. It should be opposite.
13:35 Harry Stebbings? Are you scared of dying?
13:36 Speaker 00 No, absolutely not. But the thing about time, I think, is really interesting. I don't think, we haven't really nailed the whole concept of time. And now, why are you more impatient when you are twenty? Well, three months is a higher percentage of your life than when you are uh fifty. You've seen, you've seen longer time, you've seen that it pays off to be long term. But uh but if I were to tell myself something, my twenty year old self, uh what should I, what should I, what should I learn? I'd be, you know, you've got so much time, you know, just uh think more long term.
14:03 Harry Stebbings? Speed of execution, we're always taught, is like the biggest difference between those that win and those that don't.
14:08 Speaker 00 Yeah.
14:08 Harry Stebbings? And with that in mind, I very much think that time is crucial and I have to get as much out of every single day.
14:14 Speaker 00 Yeah, but that's different from thinking long term. I completely agree. Organizations which make fast decisions are generally better organizations. I have a countdown clock in my office. Showing how many days I've got left of my job, because it's a five-year job. I've got five hundred and eighty days left. Now, why do I have that? Is it because I don't like my job? No, I love my job. But the thing is that when I got somebody in my office who says, yeah, we can do this next. Over the next three months, we can do it. I said, hey, listen to that. Look at this. I've got five hundred and eighty days left. We need to hurry up. And they say, oh, gosh, yeah, you only have five hundred and eighty days left. We need to do it straight away. So you completely change the mindset and you get this urgency into thinking.
14:51 Harry Stebbings? Do you think that five-year tenure is a good thing or a bad thing? Because doesn't it prevent long-term thinking?
14:56 Speaker 00 Well, I think it has got positive things and negative things. I think on balance, it's probably neutral.
15:01 Harry Stebbings? Do you feel the pressure?
15:02 Speaker 00 I think I would have felt the pressure, even if I had a tenure.
15:05 Harry Stebbings? When you think about like how others in sovereign wealth funds do and engage in what they do. Who do you respect and why?
15:12 Speaker 00 There are a lot of very good funds out there, right? You have the Canadians, they are, they are very strong, they are long-term thinkers. They have good institutions, good organizations. You have something like G I C in Singapore, it's very strong. I would say what I admire with funds is when they are transparent. Now, the Norwegian Fund is the most transparent fund. And I can say that because we, we won the awards for being the most transparent fund in the world. So I'm not even bragging, it's just a fact. It's good to be transparent. Everybody is on the same page. Every know, everybody knows, uh, you know, what's the agenda? What are we driving for? What are you trying to achieve? And it establishes trust.
15:46 Harry Stebbings? I don't know, it assumes everyone has the same I Q and E Q. And actually, sometimes people need to be encouraged along and maybe not know the whole truth. Because I don't think actually a lot of people are as, as good as we give them the credit for.
16:00 Speaker 00 Well, I disagree, I beg to disagree here. I think the more people know the truth, the better it is. The more everybody know all the facts, the better it is.
16:06 Harry Stebbings? When you think about, I, I love this, you asked it with, I think it's Jane, the C E O of Citi.
16:10 Speaker 00 Yeah.
16:11 Harry Stebbings? And, and you said, if you were to really have one or two numbers which measure the health of the economy. Which one or two are they for you, Jane? And I was like, that's a good question. If you have that same question, how do you respond to that?
16:24 Speaker 00 Well, so what I look at is how much fair and how much greedy is there out there? Now, how do you measure that? Well, fear you can measure in, you know, in the VIX index, the volatility index. You can measure during COVID, you can measure it in the amount of media on, on the bad news. To which extent specialists disagree with each other, what are the doomsday scenarios and so on. So you can, you can get a gauge for the fear. And gee, did we have a lot of fear at the beginning with COVID when we didn't know what it was. That's not so difficult to measure, but it's an important one to keep track on. But then, you know, greed, how do you measure that? That's much more difficult to, to gauge and frothiness. And to try to get your handle on that, that's really important. And so I'm wondering now, over the last two, three days, the share prices of ARM has gone up 150%
17:09 Speaker 00 or whatever it is, something very, very high number. And what is that? Is that some kind of peak of sentiment for tech shares or what is it? I don't know, but I'm, I'm thinking about that. How do you think about measuring greed then? Well, you just have to look at what's going on in society. When you feel really stupid because you haven't made a hundred percent return in the stock market because all your friends have, then you have to start to think. It's just when things start to look really, really simple, then there is too much greed because it's just not simple to make money. Do you think greed is bad? Oh, not per se, not per se. I mean, greed is what drive a lot of people. I mean, greed is a negative word for aspiration and wishes for a better life. And so the word greed is a negative word.
17:53 Speaker 00 But the wish to create things, to make the world a better place, all these kind of things, that's, that's positive. It's a positive drive. I mean, it's, it's, it's cool that people wanna establish things and make things and show the world. What's the biggest constraint that you have because of your position? You would like to remove and what would you do if it were removed? Yeah, I don't feel we have much constraint. So we, you know, we're a large fund. We are, we are a public sector fund. For the moment, we cannot invest in private equity, which I think we now have this political discussion and, and we have arguments back and forth with, with the ministry. So, so we'll see what comes out of that. How does decision making work around that? It's a political process. So the ministry is asking us for advice, i.e. the board of, of the central bank.
18:37 Speaker 00 Then they give advice, then they go through the political process and discuss it with the politicians. And then they come back with a white paper. So it's a, it's a very thorough and, and really solid and impressive work.
18:49 Harry Stebbings? You said central banks there and I saw on one interview that you did, you said you hope that central banks change the type of data that they use to inform their thinking. How so and how would you like that changed?
18:59 Speaker 00 Yeah, so I need to be a bit careful when I talk about central banks because, you know, we are situated in the middle of central banks. So when I talk about central banks, I never talk about the Norwegian Central Bank. But I think it's interesting to look at the central banks and I have previously said that I thought they were a bit slow to increase rates. Now, I think that's the opinion that many people have and they have admitted it themselves. So I don't think it's particularly controversial to say. And to me, the question is just like, what kind of alternative data do you use? Do you speak to the CEO of companies and ask them what they expect for the next 12 months? And historically, they haven't necessarily done that. I think they probably will do it or are already doing it more. And perhaps that will improve the decision making.
19:35 Harry Stebbings? I spoke to a couple of mutual friends and they said that your content consumption is extremely voracious. And you mentioned, you know, being so engaged in reading when you were young. What does your content consumption look like today? Like you have to be across so many things.
19:50 Speaker 00 The important thing with learning is that you need to be curious and you need to learn as many different things as you can from as many different type of people. When you look at the social psychology studies on this, the more different type of friends you have, the more innovative and the more creative you become. Very, very important. Now, I consume a lot of newspapers, I do, I listen to podcasts and I also learn a lot from my own podcast because it forces me to prepare for various industries and various CEOs and so on. And it's a very, very important part of learning.
20:20 Harry Stebbings? Do you do the prep yourself?
20:21 Speaker 00 I get help from the great analysts who I work with, but I also do, I also prep myself. So I sit during the weekends and I think it's really, really cool, right?
20:30 Harry Stebbings? That's the way to learn, right?
20:31 Speaker 00 Totally, totally.
20:32 Harry Stebbings? I learn so much.
20:33 Speaker 00 Absolutely. So before we had Daniel Ek or Spotify on, you know, I have to learn about the music industry. I didn't know so much about it. And before we had Nvidia CEO, well, I had to learn about microchips. And so it's just a fascinating learning experience. Or Bill Gates, you have to learn about a lot of things because he knows so much about so many things.
20:50 Harry Stebbings? What was the best guest? You can say it's just.
20:52 Speaker 00 No, I I I think we've had a lot of really, really good guests.
20:55 Harry Stebbings? Oh, come on. You can give me one.
20:57 Speaker 00 Who's yours?
20:58 Harry Stebbings? Peter Fenton from Benchmark would be up there, or Doug Leoni from Sequoia Capital, who's run Sequoia Capital for many years. Mark Benioff from Salesforce was fantastic.
21:07 Speaker 00 And why were these people good?
21:08 Harry Stebbings? Different reasons. Doug Leoni really understood the art and science of what makes a great interview. The art is bringing people in with a story. When I was doing this and I felt this, people feel like they're with you. But then he tied it to science. And from that experience, I learnt three cool things that changed how I think about pricing assets. He tied art, resonance, to science, learning, in a way that I think was very, very special.
21:33 Speaker 00 That's good.
21:34 Harry Stebbings? Fair enough. When you think, we've spoken about Nvidia, you mentioned there, we spoke about Microsoft. How do you think about US tech firm concentration? It is so concentrated.
21:44 Speaker 00 Yeah.
21:44 Harry Stebbings? I'd just love to hear your thoughts on that.
21:46 Speaker 00 Well, it's very concentrated. And you know, you have the market cap of individual companies, which surpass the market capitalization of all the Swedish companies, for instance. So they are bigger than singular countries. I don't think it's good or bad. I think it's just a function of this being a platform economy where if you if you own the platform and you have the size, you just gain more size.
22:08 Harry Stebbings? Everyone says like in every cycle, there's incumbents and you know, this is no different and they can always be challenged. Honestly, to me, this feels different because in a lot of cases, the data advantage that they have and the sheer scale that they have is just bigger than ever. Nokia, when it was at its height, did not have the scale.
22:24 Speaker 00 No.
22:24 Harry Stebbings? That Microsoft does.
22:26 Speaker 00 No, it's interesting. So now, for instance, in AI, it takes, it's so expensive to develop the new models that if you're not already a big company, you have difficulty doing it. There is an argument for this continuation of the winner takes it all just continuing. I just don't know.
22:40 Harry Stebbings? How do you think about investing in AI super aggressively? You are primed position wise to actually say, hey, we can become a market leader. We can take a very forward approach. We can take a very long time horizon.
22:52 Speaker 00 Well, we are quite close to the index, the way we invest. So we would own all the big companies, you know. Our biggest position is Microsoft, very big positions in Nvidia, AMD, Alphabet, you name them, we have. Those are our biggest positions.
23:04 Harry Stebbings? Would you do Sam's new seven trillion dollar project? I mean, there's only a few people who can.
23:09 Speaker 00 Yeah. Well, the easiest thing here is we only do companies with a stock market listing. So even if we wanted to, that wouldn't be so easy. I have to say, the podcast I did with Sam Altman was really, really interesting.
23:21 Harry Stebbings? Was it? Why was it so interesting?
23:22 Speaker 00 Because, because I felt that we were looking into the future and that he knew what the future was going to look like. And he had, he has more visibility into it than most people, at least for the next kind of three, three, five years.
23:35 Harry Stebbings? When you hear him talk about it, are you excited for that future?
23:37 Speaker 00 Yeah, I think it's huge. I think it's fantastic. So I ask him, I say, hey, we want to improve productivity in the firm by 10%. What do you think about that number for the next 12 months? And then he thinks a lot and he says, no, I think it's too conservative. I think you should try for 20%, given how many developers you have. So now I run around in the firm and just say, hello, guys. How exactly are you going to improve your productivity by 20% over the next 12 months?
24:00 Harry Stebbings? When you have the index like approach that you do, what does a 20% productivity increase mean? More analysis? Because I heard you say that you wouldn't change headcount, you'd just do more with the same.
24:08 Speaker 00 Yeah, I think we do better, we do better analysis, we do better follow up with the companies, we do better work on, on the voting, we do. I just think you improve the quality across the board.
24:18 Harry Stebbings? How do you think about chip shortage, one of the most challenging problems we're facing in this space?
24:21 Speaker 00 Yeah, so I don't think too much about it, to be frank, because I suspect it will take care of itself. Because we have commercial players here and I just saw that AMD is launching a new chip, which is even faster than what was available before. And so I suspect there will be chips. If they're not enough, then prices will go up and then one will consume less.
24:39 Harry Stebbings? You're a big believer in Adam Smith's invisible.
24:41 Speaker 00 Well, in that particular, in that particular case, absolutely.
24:43 Harry Stebbings? In other cases?
24:44 Speaker 00 Yeah, no, I think, I think in that particular case, it works really well. I don't, I don't think, hey, I mean, it's not like capitalism is solving all the problems and it's creating its own problems. But it's got some pretty good and, and well-working mechanisms.
24:57 Harry Stebbings? There's a brilliant quote that I think to a lot, when the facts change, you know, I change my mind.
25:01 Speaker 00 Yeah.
25:01 Harry Stebbings? How do you think about changing your mind?
25:03 Speaker 00 Oh, very, very important. And so when you look at the best investors in the world, they are stubborn because you need to be stubborn. And you need to be able to sit with the oppositions. But when facts change, you need to change your mind. And the combination of stubbornness and agility, it's a combination which very, very few people have.
25:18 Harry Stebbings? There's another great investor, he talks about the willingness to be lonely in your beliefs as well, when other people don't see what you see and you have to be willing to sit in that discomfort.
25:26 Speaker 00 Yep.
25:26 Harry Stebbings? Do you sometimes feel uncomfortable in a position that you hold because it is less obvious or lonely?
25:32 Speaker 00 Yeah, absolutely, but the thing is that the more uncomfortable you feel, the better it probably is. And so as long as you know that, that takes away some of that uncomfortable feeling.
25:41 Harry Stebbings? Are you able to seek discomfort though in positions?
25:44 Speaker 00 Yeah.
25:45 Harry Stebbings? Do you know what I mean? But given the position, given representing a country, you can't exactly say to your analysts, hey, let's go and find some batshit crazy things, which everyone hates right now because that's where value is created in investing.
25:58 Speaker 00 It's more difficult to do with this current fund, but it's ideally what you should be doing.
26:03 Harry Stebbings? How do you think about regulation environments? I get quite worried when we see increased regulation suddenly around Europe, especially around M and A and liquidity environments. How do you feel when you look at the regulation?
26:14 Speaker 00 Well, there is a reason why you have regulations, right? It's to prevent another financial crisis and so it's put there for a reason. Is there too much regulation? I mean, there could be in some areas, but generally speaking, regulation is not a bad thing. It is, of course, holding Europe back compared to the US. Now, there are several reasons why US, why Europe is growing less fast than the US. It struck me, I spent a month in New York in November and met with a lot of companies and you just, there is a different thinking about speed, different thinking about risk, different level of ambitions. You know, in Europe, 5% is a high number, in the US it's a low number. In Europe, if you fail, you are generally not given another chance. So you have some mentality.
26:52 Harry Stebbings? Do you think that's still the case here in Europe?
26:54 Speaker 00 Absolutely.
26:55 Harry Stebbings? What can we do to change that?
26:56 Speaker 00 It's very difficult. It's very difficult.
26:58 Harry Stebbings? I had Larry Summers on the show. He said, Europe's a museum, Japan's a nursing home and China's jail. How do you feel when you hear that?
27:06 Speaker 00 Well, he's a very clever man generally, so he must be on to something.
27:11 Harry Stebbings? He doesn't hold back. You know, it was funny, I posted on Twitter about your coming on the show and a lot of comments said, when will you hold Bitcoin?
27:20 Speaker 00 We will not hold Bitcoin. It's not the norm mandate and we have no wish to have it. I don't think. And also, I'm not quite sure I fully understand all the implications of Bitcoin, but it's not an alternative for us.
27:30 Harry Stebbings? What would make China investable for you?
27:32 Speaker 00 Well, we are invested in China. We invest in great Chinese companies and there are many of them which are good. You know, if you think about, if you look at the sentiment towards Chinese companies, it's pretty, pretty rock bottom, right?
27:43 Harry Stebbings? Yeah, I don't think it's ever been worse in my work.
27:45 Speaker 00 No, so it's the worst we've seen. So have we seen the low in sentiments? Nah, so that I don't know. But if you look at where are sentiments really high and where are they really low? Clearly, US offices, so real estate, very low. China, very low. US tech, very high. This is pretty obvious.
28:02 Harry Stebbings? Do you think the negativity towards China persists?
28:04 Speaker 00 I don't know. I don't know. They have some issues. They have deflation there now. The growth is a bit slower, but they are a lot of people and they are very hardworking.
28:12 Harry Stebbings? They are incredibly hardworking.
28:13 Speaker 00 Yep.
28:14 Harry Stebbings? How do you think about your own investor psychology? Confidence in investing is very important. How do you think about controlling it when it's too high, protecting when you made a couple of bad investments and?
28:25 Speaker 00 I think the importance here, you need to be stubborn. You need to question yourself all the time. You need to be confident, but at the same time, you need to be a bit insecure. So it's to get that balance right. It's tough.
28:36 Harry Stebbings? What are you insecure about today?
28:37 Speaker 00 Everything. I mean, you have to, you have to question everything. You have to question what is happening with inflation, what is happening to valuations, what is happening with technological innovation, what is happening to geopolitics, where are the risks, what's happening to the political situation we have? We got elections all over the world. So there are a lot of things to be uncertain about.
28:56 Harry Stebbings? Climate is one which draws a lot of attention, requests for more investment. How do you think about climate costs, mitigation, the role that you can play?
29:06 Speaker 00 Yeah. If you're a small investor and you only own a couple of companies, you can hide from the climate problems, right? If you own the whole world like we do, you know, we own one and a half percent of all the companies in the world, you cannot hide. Because you've got one company which pollutes, you pick it up in the rest of your portfolio. So you need to care about the environment, you need to care about the future of the globe. Because taken to the extreme in an inhabitable world, the value of your investments are zero. So we really need to care. And that is why we care deeply about the climate and why we work with the companies we're investing in, why we are in continuous dialogue with them, why we vote at AGMs, why we have a very fixed policy to this.
29:43 Harry Stebbings? Do you think you have a good culture at the firm?
29:45 Speaker 00 Yes, I think we have a good culture, but culture can always be better, right? And so you continuously need to improve the culture, what could be better? So culture, you can have even more speed, you can have people taking more responsibility, you know, even deeper sense of engagement. But I mean, generally speaking, it's a phenomenal firm, you know.
30:04 Harry Stebbings? What do you think you do really well as a firm? Yeah, to make it phenomenal.
30:07 Speaker 00 We have very, very good people who feel very strongly about what they do, who have a passion for what they do, who are proud to work on behalf of the Norwegian population.
30:18 Harry Stebbings? With the size of the vehicle itself, where does it go back to? Like I saw your talk, I think it was a TED talk where every Norwegian is a millionaire. And then some people are like, ah, reinvest more in Norway. What's it ultimately for?
30:30 Speaker 00 Well, we have the fund to safeguard it for future generations. And so it's an investment fund and it's a kind of a backup fund, right? It meant that during Covid, you could pay for various efforts and so on that many other countries couldn't really do. It's a combination, it's a combination of the two. Now, the government can spend 3% of the fund every year and it funds roughly 20% of the state budget. So it's very, very important in terms of funding everything that goes on, from hospitals to schools to road buildings and so on.
30:57 Harry Stebbings? Do you believe in work-life balance?
30:59 Speaker 00 Okay, so I asked Jenson Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, you know, how much do you work? He said, Nikolai, there is hard work and then there is insanely hard work. So I said, okay, what about you then? I work insanely hard. I work every day from my wake up at five until I go to bed at nine. I work every weekday, Saturday, Sunday, every holiday, I work all the time. Wow.
31:20 Harry Stebbings? But when do you relax?
31:21 Speaker 00 Yeah, but I relax all the time, he said, cause I love what I do. And I think if you really love what you do, it's not gonna feel like work.
31:28 Harry Stebbings? I get that, but then there
31:29 Speaker 00 And what I do, what I do.
31:30 Harry Stebbings? Time with your, your spouse, your kids.
31:33 Speaker 00 Yeah, well, so I'm not devoid of that. I have both kids and a wife.
31:36 Harry Stebbings? How old are your kids?
31:37 Speaker 00 Well, they're in their twenties. I set aside time for them, but I, I work a lot, but it's because I love what I do.
31:43 Harry Stebbings? On fatherhood, what does it mean to be a great father in your eyes? What is great fatherhood to you?
31:48 Speaker 00 To show unconditional love, it's to spend time with them, it's to listen to them and.
31:54 Harry Stebbings? Has your style of parenting changed over time? When you look back to, you know, when they were literally born and to now, has your views on what good parenting has changed?
32:02 Speaker 00 I think, uh, and then you, and then you have be pretty, you, you work hard on parenting for some years and then I think it's really hands off. You need to just let them lose, uh, support them in what they do, make sure they know that you're, that you're proud. I've been very lucky to have a wonderful, uh, wife who's spent a lot of time on the upbringing. So that's, that's been a big, a big thing, a big gift.
32:25 Harry Stebbings? Kind of flipping back to culture, but I guess it's also relevant with kids. How do you create environments where people feel they can say anything? Often people don't actually. Whether it's with CEOs of huge organizations, CEOs of Goldman Sachs City, to stand up to someone and say, actually, Nikolai, I disagree. And we could be doing this internally. How do you think about creating cultures of safety where team members or children can say, I disagree?
32:49 Speaker 00 Well, the most important thing is to admit mistakes yourself. You have to stand up, admit mistakes. That's the only way to make it safe for other people. And it's very tough. But the interesting thing is that if you, if, if they think that you are pretty clever generally and you admit mistakes, do you think they trust you more or less? They trust you more. It's a fantastic thing to admit mistakes.
33:05 Harry Stebbings? Is vulnerability in leadership good? And is there a limit to it?
33:09 Speaker 00 Yeah, sure. I mean, if you are like a complete moron, it doesn't work. Okay. You must be, you must be genuinely not stupid. Okay. But as long as they.
33:16 Harry Stebbings? I've got no idea what we're doing. What even is A I?
33:20 Speaker 00 No, no, but as long, as long as they think that you are clever, then admit mistakes is really good.
33:25 Harry Stebbings? What are you not good at that you would like to be good at?
33:28 Speaker 00 Oh my, there's just so many things and there are just so many things to know and to learn. And there are so many areas where I know so little.
33:36 Harry Stebbings? There must be something. It's like learning a language, playing.
33:39 Speaker 00 Well, language I tried, I, I did speak some languages when I was younger. I tried to learn Italian many times. It just didn't really sink in. I just wish I could have learned more languages when I was younger.
33:49 Harry Stebbings? You've met some of the most impressive and incredible leaders of companies where you own one and a half percent. When you think about it, they're not the best because that would be obviously choosing favourites, but just like the most memorable meetings with CEOs you've had. It could be through the podcast or through meetings. Is there one or two that stand out?
34:05 Speaker 00 Do you know, one I am really fond of is a guy called Albert Behny in Switzerland. He's the chair of both a company called Lonza and Geberit. And I did a podcast with him and actually he was the first guy I rang when I got the job in the Zouinwell Fund. And I asked him, Albert, I just got a new job. What should I do? And he said, well, you need to talk to a lot of people in the firm so that you get better data points, so that they get to know you because they don't know you. They need to get to know you. And when you investigate change, it's easier to get through when they have feel they've participated. And you need to talk to people who are, you know, the same level as you, below you, all parts of the business. Then you need to decide what am I going to work on here? What am I going to change? Pick a few things, not many people, put it through together with a whole leader
34:50 Speaker 00 group and don't go too fast. The people who fail are people who tried to do too many things too fast. And there were a couple of times in the beginning after I got the job where we clearly were moving too fast. And it was like as if the the lower body not in sync with the upper body.
35:05 Harry Stebbings? In what way? Because the value just accrued and appreciated and?
35:09 Speaker 00 Just trying to make too much change in the organisation. You could just feel that the organisation didn't want to do it. And it's very important. You don't want to trigger the immunity system of an organisation. So if you try to do too much thing, the whole organisation is just trying to expel you. It's just want to get rid of you. You're a nuisance, right? It's as if your body was trying to get rid of some bacteria. And so that's why you shouldn't go too fast.
35:30 Harry Stebbings? When you think about the one or two things, then you thought, okay, we're going to focus on these one or two. These are the things that you want to be remembered for with your tenure. What were those ones?
35:38 Speaker 00 They were they were crystal clear. One, it needs to be performance focused. You know, we needed to focus on our performance because otherwise we will just not have a reason to exist. Then it was the people, spend more time on developing the people, inject more love and care. And then the last thing was communication, more communication internally and more communication externally. So we had three things.
35:59 Harry Stebbings? Fire after this, but you know, you mentioned the communication there. You are CEO of, as we said, the largest. Doing your own podcasts is like, others don't do it. Talk to me about the discussion point for that. And how did that kind of come to be where you're like, not only, because most would also say, oh, we should do one. CMO or head of marketing, you do it and pass it off. You took the reins on this, you do all of the shows.
36:21 Speaker 00 Yes, I do. And the thinking was, you know what, we are a big fan. We are, what is transparency taken to the extreme? Well, that's showing all the Norwegian people what they own. I thought we potentially have access to all these fantastic CEOs. Not many other people have, and certainly not many other Norwegian podcast people had access to them. And so we, we started it, we thought it'd be good for, for the general listeners, it'd be good for CEOs, it'd be great for students. We got tens of thousands of students listening and it's proven to be really good for recruitment too. So the applications now for our positions in New York and London have just gone up.
36:54 Harry Stebbings? Do you feel you've got better as an interviewer?
36:57 Speaker 00 I think you get better, I bet you're better than, than you were a thousand shows ago.
37:00 Harry Stebbings? I was terrible.
37:01 Speaker 00 You're good, you're good now.
37:02 Harry Stebbings? People always say to me, ah, you know, I could never do what you do. And I say, I've done 2,700.
37:07 Speaker 00 3,700.
37:08 Harry Stebbings? 2,700.
37:09 Speaker 00 Wow, my, what, what, what's the main way you go better, you think?
37:12 Harry Stebbings? Definitely feeling much more natural. I was very staccato. Also, the best interviewers are able to have a schedule and then move away from it and engage in the natural flow of conversation. But then bring it back to the schedule without it seeming staccato or cut off.
37:27 Speaker 00 Yeah, you need to, you need to follow up, but at the same time you need to move it forward. And it's that combination, I think is important.
37:33 Harry Stebbings? I think what I find hard is there are naturally things where I would dig in more if I wasn't a friend.
37:40 Speaker 00 Yeah.
37:41 Harry Stebbings? Not an aggressor, but I find most journalists are. And so I will often get pushback being like, you could have pushed harder here. And it's like, well, I would have done, but I'm not there to make someone feel uncomfortable.
37:51 Speaker 00 But it's also changes with, with age, right? I bet when you started, you would not ask about parenthood.
37:56 Harry Stebbings? No.
37:57 Speaker 00 And fatherhood, because it wasn't on your agenda. Now clearly there is something going on now.
38:00 Harry Stebbings? Yeah, and people follow you, actually. It's the funny thing with podcasts, actually, and it's people really develop a relationship with you. Are you ready for a quickfire?
38:09 Speaker 00 Sure.
38:10 Harry Stebbings? Okay, so is it important for you to be liked?
38:13 Speaker 00 No, I don't particularly like to be hated, but you can't, you can't always be liked all the time. But ideally, what you do is going to make you better and perhaps liked in the long term.
38:23 Harry Stebbings? What does the day in the life of you look like? Just if you would have a standardized day, I know there's travel, which kind of makes it a
38:29 Speaker 00 Well, so the cool thing is I don't have any, the days are not similar, but I wake up at, let's say, six or before six, I read a lot of papers. And then I go to the office. I have just different types of meetings with my colleagues, the investment colleagues, the ministry. I do a podcast a week. It's just so varied, unbelievably varied. We have offices in London, Singapore, New York. I travel.
38:50 Harry Stebbings? You gym, exercise?
38:52 Speaker 00 I go to the gym, it may not look that way, but I go to the gym three days a week in the morning. And then I go in the winter cross-country skiing every weekend, Saturday and Sunday.
39:00 Harry Stebbings? Gym three times a week is good. Do you go to bed early?
39:02 Speaker 00 Nine thirty. I think that's pretty late.
39:05 Harry Stebbings? Do you find it easy to go to sleep?
39:07 Speaker 00 Yeah.
39:07 Harry Stebbings? You must have a lot on your mind.
39:08 Speaker 00 Yeah, I like that.
39:09 Harry Stebbings? Has it always been like that?
39:10 Speaker 00 Yeah.
39:10 Harry Stebbings? What are you most concerned about in the world?
39:12 Speaker 00 We got some big climate issues. We got some big geopolitical issues.
39:16 Harry Stebbings? What's the best investment advice you've ever received?
39:19 Speaker 00 To be long-term and, long-term and contrarian. That's where all the money is.
39:23 Harry Stebbings? I agree. It's just the single hardest thing, as we said, to be willing to be lonely for so long in the face of so much criticism and disbelief.
39:31 Speaker 00 I listened to a lecture by Mark Andreessen at Stanford many, many, many years ago. And he said, you know what? If you have these two X's, one is right and wrong, and the other one is consensus, non-consensus. All the money is where you are right, non-consensus. I'm really excited because I am going to meet Mark Andreessen in March.
39:49 Harry Stebbings? Tell me, what's the kindest thing anyone's ever done for you?
39:51 Speaker 00 The kindest thing anybody's done to me must have been, you know, my mother, who spent so, so much time with me. And who, in a way, was pretty sacrificing in the way she did things. And I think, so generally, generally, generally speaking, I think mothers are just the best, you know?
40:07 Harry Stebbings? I liked you so much before this, but I, I couldn't agree with you more. I wouldn't be anywhere without my mother.
40:13 Speaker 00 No.
40:13 Harry Stebbings? What did you learn from your mother about parenting?
40:16 Speaker 00 Unconditional love, that you were always okay.
40:19 Harry Stebbings? Yeah, my mother always told me you can never tell your children enough that you love them.
40:23 Speaker 00 Yeah, I think that's probably right.
40:24 Harry Stebbings? Yeah, good old mum. Tell me, what's the biggest investment mistake you've made?
40:28 Speaker 00 During the financial crisis, we were invested, this was in my previous company, invested in a, in a kind of a subprime lender. It's a shitty business. Bad businesses attract bad people. And there was accounting fraud and all that kind of stuff, and we just lost a lot of money. So I would never, I would never invest in a, in an ethical or any company that did anything that wasn't really good.
40:51 Harry Stebbings? You mentioned the bust and the financial crisis, Rodney old Kipling, how do you keep your head when all about you were losing theirs?
40:58 Speaker 00 By zooming out, understanding that this is going to be one point in time and that normal times will come back.
41:06 Harry Stebbings? If you were to give young people listening, students who listen to your podcast, students who listen to this, a piece of advice as they enter a workforce today, what would that piece of advice be?
41:16 Speaker 00 Think long term, do your own things. Don't try to be like everybody else. Because that's not going to make you very happy. And, and by the way, as an investor, there isn't going to be any money there either.
41:26 Harry Stebbings? Mine's also like work 10% harder. It's so easy to be great now because I think everyone else is kind of mediocre.
41:32 Speaker 00 Do you think so?
41:33 Harry Stebbings? I really do. You want to really get that job, follow up, send that email that night before, send that email after, notice the little things, do the work beforehand, know that you grew up in X religious town and have that little bonding moment before. Put in the extra 15%, understand the person better.
41:51 Speaker 00 You for sure need to work hard, that's very important.
41:53 Harry Stebbings? Final one, what are you most optimistic about looking forward? I'd like to finish on a tone of optimism.
41:58 Speaker 00 I am very optimistic about people. And I think interestingly in.
42:02 Harry Stebbings? After I just said that, people are mediocre, that shit.
42:05 Speaker 00 I, I don't think, I don't think people are mediocre. You know, I really don't think people are mediocre. I think people are fantastic. And I think in a, in a world of AI and so on, we need to lean in more on, on the human beings and what it is that makes us human. Empathy and that's empowerment, encouragement. What never ceases to surprise me is the type of power you can unleash if you give people responsibility and trust. That just makes me so optimistic about the future.
42:33 Harry Stebbings? Do you start with full trust with people?
42:35 Speaker 00 Yeah.
42:35 Harry Stebbings? Listen, Nikolai, I've loved this. Thank you so much for answering my meandering questions and you've been an incredible guest.
42:41 Speaker 00 It's been great being here. That's good fun. Well done.
42:43 Harry Stebbings? Thank you so much, my friend.
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Previous 20VC: Are IPO Windows Shut? Has Regulation Killed the M&A Market? M&A OG Frank Quattrone on Lessons from 650 M&A Deals Worth Over $1TRN and Taking Amazon, Cisco and Netscape Public Next 20VC: 27 Years of Investing Lessons on Picking Founders, Price Discipline, Reserves and Selling Positions | Can Seed Investors Compete with Multi-Stage Venture Firms | Why Returns Will Not Worsen Moving Forward with Peter Wagner, Founder @ Wing Page updated September 29, 2026 · transcript and summary are machine-generated