Iran Protests Explained

Editor's note: The United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran early Saturday, Feb. 28. For current coverage click here https://www.npr.org/2026/02/28/nx-s1-5730158/israel-iran-strikes-trump-us. For background context, the story below was published on Jan. 22, 2026. Iran has been here before. For decades the country has gone through cycles of protest and repression at the hands of the Islamic Republic. What makes this cycle different? In this episode of Throughline from NPR, we speak to two Iranian experts about their view of the past, present, and future of Iran’s protest movement. Guests: Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington DC Holly Dagres, senior fellow at the Washington Institute and curator of the Iranist on Substack. To access bonus episodes and listen to Throughline sponsor-free, subscribe to Throughline+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/throughline. See pcm.adswizz.com https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences. NPR Privacy Policy https://www.npr.org/about-npr/179878450/privacy-policy

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:17Speaker 01

  Iran was nothing like it was three years ago, you know? The people's attitude, the people's words, I could clearly sense that no one is truly satisfied anymore. The city felt like fire under ashes.

• 0:33Speaker 02

  Fire under ashes. This is the voice of an Iranian graduate student currently living and studying in the US. She asked that we refer to her as Kay. Back in early December, during her university's holiday break, she and her husband went back to Iran to visit family. They planned to stay a month. This was her first time back in three years. She says Iran kind of felt like a tinderbox when she got there.

• 0:59Speaker 01

  Not only because of economic problem or economic crisis, but also because of the suffocating atmosphere and the lack of civil freedoms.

• 1:11Speaker 02

  We will not be sharing her name because she asked to remain anonymous in order to protect her family in Iran.

• 1:18Speaker 01

  When I went to supermarket or hospital, bank, I've seen like conversation, I've heard conversation that people talk about Iranian currency and why it's really low and it's getting worse and what's going to happen. They didn't see any future upon them.

• 1:37Speaker 02

  Over the last several years, Iran's economy has been struggling. Sanctions from the US and its allies, mismanagement from the government, they've both played a major role in the downturn. But things got way worse in late December of 2025, when the real, Iran's currency, basically collapsed. One US dollar became worth over 1 million reals. This meant the buying power of Iranians was down by nearly half since 2022.

• 2:07Speaker 01

  My friend is like nurse and even though she has to work hard, like long shifts with her husband. And they had to sell their golds to be able to live in even a smaller apartment in downtown. But they had to because they they had no choice.

• 2:29Speaker 02

  Gold is something married couples usually receive as a gift at their weddings in Iran. It's like something you use one day to help your children or for your own retirement or to buy a house. This kind of story is very common. Many Iranians have had to resort to selling family heirlooms, working multiple jobs and even selling their own organs just to pay for rent or food.

• 2:53Speaker 01

  They told me we can't see any future upon us with this economic situation.

• 3:00Speaker 03

  The economic pain triggered anger towards the government. And on December 28, 2025, within days of the currency collapse, protests began in Tehran, Iran's capital.

• 3:22Speaker 01

  In the downtown of Tehran, there is a big bazaar, like we called Tehran Bazaar.

• 3:28Speaker 03

  The Tehran Bazaar is Iran's biggest market. It's an important central hub for all kinds of commerce. And the merchants who have shops there were very angry about the collapse of Iran's currency. They took to the streets and began protesting.

• 3:44Speaker 01

  Protest started from there and then following that other part of the city, it started to protest. It was like, I don't know, dominos spreading to all over the country.

• 3:58Speaker 03

  Protest started in cities and spread to small towns. They even reached the quiet suburbs where Kay was staying.

• 4:06Speaker 01

  It started at night, like about 8:00 PM. People from every background, like old, young, kids, our neighbors, all of them, even with their kids were outside.

• 4:23Speaker 02

  What were they saying?

• 4:24Speaker 01

  The message was really, really clear. Down to the government, we don't want this government. They were calling like death to Khamenei.

• 4:35Speaker 02

  Death to Khamenei. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been in power for thirty seven years. Calling for his death publicly is a very dangerous thing to do in Iran.

• 4:48Speaker 01

  This type of like things to say, narrative to say in Iran, it was, it was really like you have to pay like a high price to it.

• 4:59Speaker 02

  Are you saying, can I clarify? You're saying that saying death to Khamenei for you, growing up, was seen as something you couldn't do because you could be killed for it?

• 5:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, exactly. This government, like actually, they say we are from God. And if you say we are against you, we don't, we don't want to think like you. You're, you're labeled as a someone who is at war with God. And they accuse you of acting against national security and then execute you. I couldn't even myself believe that people shouting and calling this. Even myself, even me and my family, we were shouting this in a roof of, in our house roof and even our neighbors. We, we weren't like afraid.

• 6:00Speaker 03

  But it would be a mistake to see this level of anger and fearlessness from protesters as only a response to economic issues. Iran is a theocracy. There is no separation of mosque and state. Every detail of one's life is subject to religious law and decree. This caused the massive protests in 2022 when Mahsa Gina Amini, a young woman, died in police custody after being arrested for allegedly not following Islamic laws around modest clothing or hijab.

• 6:33Speaker 01

  There was like really a police dedicated to hijab. That if you don't wear good clothes or you don't wear hijab, they they will follow you in the street. It happens to me. I was but I was with my father. And one of the police uh came to me. And like they warned me, cover your hair.

• 6:57Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 6:58Speaker 01

  And this is not appropriate uh clothes that you wear here. And my father, he said, I'm with her, I'm uh I'm her father. You you're not allowed to tell her anything. And what are you doing? And it was like like they argue between uh my father and the police. And they they they were like, it's none of your business. Your daughter has to wear hijab. And if you uh like uh argue more than this, uh we will arrest both of you.

• 7:29Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 7:30Speaker 01

  Can you imagine? I was terrified.

• 7:33Speaker 02

  Hmm.

• 7:33Speaker 01

  So this fear is everywhere, it's chasing you.

• 7:39Speaker 03

  The latest round of protests went on for days. And by early January, the security forces of the government began cracking down hard.

• 7:49Speaker 01

  They start to suppress and kill people. I've seen them with my own eyes, riot police and special forces. They were armed to the teeth, all of their their body covered. And uh they were carrying a kind of military grade weapons. And they were they were stopping cars on the roads and setting up checkpoints. And uh yeah, they were really scary.

• 8:20Speaker 02

  So did you at any point start hearing, did you all hear gunfire?

• 8:23Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, I've heard that, I've heard that. I've heard like some uh um gunshotting and it was, it was really scary.

• 8:32Speaker 03

  Kay and her husband were set to come back to the U S on January tenth. But her flight was canceled. In response to the protests, the Iranian government cut off the internet and blocked outgoing calls for the entire country. Planes were grounded, too.

• 8:49Speaker 01

  We were, both of us, we were confused. What's going to happen if we can't find a flight? What's going to happen to our life, both of us?

• 8:58Speaker 03

  After two days of going back and forth to the airport, they were finally able to secure a ticket. They made it out of Iran. They are back in the US now, carrying on with their lives, but always with an eye towards what's happening in their homeland.

• 9:14Speaker 01

  We are 90 million people that we are fighting for our life on the streets. And I, myself, as an Iranian, it is my responsibility to be their voice, just because of my sisters and all my sisters around their country.

• 9:34Speaker 02

  Since the protests started in the last days of 2025, the Iranian government has used its security forces to stop the unrest. The violence has worked. The streets of Iran are mostly quiet, but the cost paid by demonstrators lingers. The Iranian government says at least 5,000 people have been killed since the protests started. US-based human rights activist News Agency reports more than 25,000 people have been arrested. NPR has not been able to independently confirm these numbers. How did this happen? On January 14th, I called up two experts on modern Iran, Ali Alphone and Holly Dagres, to ask them three central questions.

• 10:18Speaker 02

  What were the conditions that brought about the current uprising in Iran? How are these protests different from past ones? And how should the United States and its allies respond?

• 10:31Speaker 02

  We try to answer those questions on this episode of Throughline from NPR.

• 10:46Speaker 04

  This is Joe from Portland, Oregon, and you're listening to Throughline on NPR.

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• 11:58Speaker 00

  Part one. Origins.

• 12:02Speaker 02

  To start this episode, we need to go over how this current Iranian government, the Islamic Republic, came to power. Okay, so before 1979, Iran was a monarchy ruled by a US-backed shah or king named Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. He was installed by the US in 1953 after a CIA-backed coup against the democratically-elected government of Mohammad Musaddegh. He stayed in power until 1979, when he was overthrown after a massive protest movement erupted against his autocratic rule. Iran's Muslim clerics emerged as the ruling force in the country, and Iran became a theocratic republic. In other words, it is ruled by Islamic law,

• 12:47Speaker 02

  or Sharia, but it also has a president, legislature, and Supreme Court. On paper, it doesn't look much different from many other countries.

• 12:57Speaker 03

  But there is also a parallel government in Iran, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. He is unelected and has the final word on everything in domestic and foreign policy.

• 13:10Speaker 03

  There's also a parallel security force called the Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC. This began as a small paramilitary force, but has ballooned into a massive military, with its own army, navy, and air forces, which answer to the supreme leader. The Revolutionary Guards are the sword that enforces the regime's rule. But they've also expanded to become one of the largest players in Iran's economy, controlling significant parts of the construction, telecommunications, banking, mining, and import-export industries.

• 13:45Speaker 02

  Since 1999, the Islamic Republic has seen unrest from its population regularly, a repeating cycle of protest and repression. But each of these cycles has been unique. In 1999, it was a student-led protest movement focused on freedom of expression. In 2009's Green Revolution, the protests happened in response to what was perceived to be a stolen election. There were smaller-scale protests in the years after, until the next major one in 2022. The Women Life Freedom Movement started after Massa Gina Amini died in the hands of authorities after she was arrested for allegedly not observing Islamic dress codes.

• 14:27Speaker 03

  Fast forward to today's protests, sparked by economic crisis. For years, Iran has been under sanctions by the US and its allies on its two biggest exports, oil and gas. It has some of the largest reserves of each in the world. Iran also has a solid manufacturing base. It's one of the biggest exporters of agricultural products in Asia. On paper, it should be a wealthy country. Yet, according to a report from the Iranian government, 30% of Iranians live in extreme poverty.

• 15:01Speaker 06

  Purchasing power of the average Iranian has been hollowed out. The value of the Iranian currency is gone.

• 15:09Speaker 02

  This is Ali Alphonie. He's a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington DC.

• 15:15Speaker 06

  This intern means that a regular school teacher is no longer even capable of purchasing a new pair of shoes once a year. For a relatively long time now, been very difficult to purchase meat for the kids. People who can afford to purchase meat, they are too ashamed of, for example, having a barbecue in their backyard because they do not know how well or poorly the neighbor is doing. And the smell of food would be a problem for the kids of the neighbor. So this is the kind of disaster that Iran middle class, the average school teacher, the fireman, the nurse, even doctors, the professional middle class has been experiencing

• 16:00Speaker 06

  for the past year.

• 16:02Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 16:02Speaker 06

  Nowadays, it is almost difficult. It really truly is hard to distinguish between the middle class and the poor. There is no longer any difference.

• 16:12Speaker 02

  You might remember Ali Alphonie from our episode called Soleimani's Iran. He is an Iranian-born political scientist and an expert on the country's leadership. Ali says that these economic problems have been exacerbated by the fact that the pain is not being felt by everyone.

• 16:29Speaker 06

  Iran's middle class and also the poor, who can afford to have a mobile phone and have access to the internet, they can watch YouTube channels. They see on TikTok the rich kids of Tehran, who can afford $10 cup of coffee at the luxury shopping malls in northern Tehran. And even worse, on TikTok, they can see son of a former ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Venezuela, light up a Cuban cigar with a $100 bill. Now, this creates resentment. This creates anger and frustration.

• 17:10Speaker 06

  And this makes people just go to the street and demand ousting of a regime, which clearly is caring for its own, but is not caring for the large middle class and the poor.

• 17:24Speaker 02

  So would you say that the response from the regime to this economic crisis has been insufficient?

• 17:32Speaker 06

  The Islamic Republic is incapable of attending to the economic problems of the Iranian state unless Iran manages to do something about the corruption, the rampant corruption, which is making the country as such poorer and poorer. But a very small part of Iranians who are engaged in sanction busting and engaged in smuggling Iran's oil and selling it in the black market internationally, but nevertheless manage to fill their pockets. Unless Iran attends the issue of corruption at home and also reaches an agreement with the US,

• 18:14Speaker 06

  the Islamic Republic is not capable of solving Iran's economic problems.

• 18:20Speaker 02

  One question that the American audience might ask is what impact the tightening sanctions have had on this economic crisis for Iran? These are American sanctions on Iranian oil and other products I'm referring to.

• 18:33Speaker 06

  The Islamic Republic's main export has been oil and to some extent, smaller extent, gas. And this money is not reaching the Iranian state as much as before due to several reasons. One of them is the US sanctions, which has made it very difficult for foreign buyers of Iran's oil to purchase the oil. Simply because there are no banking links between Iranian banks and the international banking system. So even if there is a buyer, an international buyer, they cannot transfer the money through international banking system. The transfer either needs to take place through Chinese or Russian banks and then connect it to Iran.

• 19:16Speaker 06

  This has left only one serious buyer in the international market for Iran's oil, and that's China. They can negotiate the price of Iranian oil even lower than it is in the global oil markets. What makes things even worse, you have the smugglers, a new class of Iranian merchants, usually connected with the Revolutionary Guard. Who have their own shipping companies and they are transferring and selling Iran's oil to the to the market, to the Chinese buyers. And they pocket huge sums of money in in commission for their services.

• 19:55Speaker 03

  Corruption, mismanagement, sanctions, they've made Iran virtually unlivable for most of its population. But there is another major element in these protests we wanted to understand: social issues. After the Woman Life Freedom protests in 2022, the Islamic Republic seemed to loosen restrictions on women's clothing. Yet that did very little to quell the resentment and anger on the streets.

• 20:25Speaker 06

  No longer having hijab patrols, patrolling the streets of the big cities, arresting women just because they are not sufficiently covered or not covered enough as according to the prescriptions of the government. That actually managed to calm the country for a while. But at the same time, no longer enforcing the hijab legislation also taught the Iranians a lesson, and it is that if you fight for a specific cause, the regime will make a retreat from its previous positions. They say that the government is not listening to our voice when we talk with them normally, so we have to take our protest to the streets.

• 21:09Speaker 07

  This is because of the Woman Life Freedom movement that Iranians have recognized that they need to take matters into their own hands, and this is just a continuation of that pushing back against authority.

• 21:20Speaker 02

  This is Holly Dagres.

• 21:22Speaker 07

  I'm a senior fellow at the Washington Institute. I am also the curator of the popular newsletter on all things Iran, The Iranist, on Substack. I'm Iranian-American, and I spent my formative years in Iran.

• 21:35Speaker 02

  Holly went to high school in Tehran, Iran's capital, and witnessed firsthand how much the desire of young people for more social freedom has fueled uprisings in the country.

• 21:46Speaker 07

  I would say arguably that it was Iranian Gen Z that started this trend with the 2022 Woman Life Freedom uprising. Everybody talks about this being a girl and women-led movement, but I would say it's a Gen Z one. And what you're seeing play out in Iran since December 28th was, I would argue, it was youth-led.

• 22:09Speaker 07

  And a lot of the videos coming out of the country seem to suggest that these are young people. And we've had at least over a dozen under the age of 18 that have been killed by security forces.

• 22:29Speaker 07

  It's been extraordinary watching over and over again, Iranians risking their lives, knowing full well they'll be met with bullets and batons. And that's what we're seeing play out in the past few weeks.

• 22:54Speaker 03

  Coming up, how the current protests in Iran are different from ones in the past. You're listening to Throughline from NPR.

• 23:11Speaker 08

  Hi, my name is Deveria Sahil, and I'm calling from London, United Kingdom. You're listening to Throughline from NPR. Thank you so much for such a brilliant show and for helping you to understand the world that you're currently inhabiting. Thank you so much. Keep up the good work. Bye.

• 23:27Speaker 00

  Stay tuned for the following announcements and messages from our sponsors. This message comes from iXL, a learning platform for helping kids build confidence and get up to speed fast. One subscription covers math, science, and reading for all children in a household. Receive 20% off at ixl.com/npr. This message comes from Mint Mobile. While others have been hiking your bill, Mint Mobile has kept their wireless plans starting at $15 a month. Switch to Mint Mobile and get three months of premium wireless service for $15 a month. Go to mintmobile.com/switch. Upfront payment of $45 for three-month plan required. $15 per month equivalent. New customer offer, first three months only. Then full-price plan options available.

• 24:12Speaker 00

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• 24:32Speaker 03

  Part two. New resistance.

• 24:37Speaker 07

  For a very long time, the words Iran and protests have been paired regularly in the news. Iran has been here before. But there are some key differences this time around. Many of the past protests have focused on reforming the country, bringing about incremental changes on voting, freedom of expression, women's rights. But this time around, protesters appear to be demanding the end of the Islamic Republic entirely.

• 25:06Speaker 06

  The number of people going to the streets does not even amount to 5% of Iran's total population. But the people who go to the streets, they truly mean what they are saying. And the 5% opposing the regime, they do want to bring down the regime. But unfortunately for them, the regime is better armed and is better organized. The opposition, on the other hand, has no effective leadership, has no effective organization, has no real funding, and has no unifying vision for Iran after the collapse of the Islamic Republic.

• 25:46Speaker 07

  I think it's important to talk a little bit about the former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi's role in these protests.

• 25:53Speaker 02

  Reza Pahlavi is the son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Iranian Shah or king, who was deposed in the 1979 revolution that brought the Islamic Republic into power. For most of the last 47 years, Reza Pahlavi has been living in exile in the US.

• 26:11Speaker 07

  I remember Iranians used to be like, "Salmon is Shah," at the time of the Shah, when they wanted to talk about when things were better. And I think that nostalgia has only grown because of the access to information. There's documentaries about pre-revolutionary Iran. There's also all these nice pictures and photos that go viral. And now with AI, there's also these AI versions of what they're seeing.

• 26:43Speaker 07

  And that's why you've also been seeing these, I would say, pro-Pahlavi chants. You've heard, "This is the last battle Pahlavi will return."

• 26:55Speaker 07

  Referring to the crown prince and "long live the Shah."

• 26:58Speaker 02

  Javid Shah.

• 26:58Speaker 07

  Javid Shah. And then, Reza Shah Ruhiyshad. "Reza Shah, may your soul be blessed," referring to his grandfather, the founder of the dynasty.

• 27:11Speaker 07

  And there's a real sense, at least amongst some Iranians, that he should be a transitional leader or that he is just a simple, the antithesis of the Islamic Republic.

• 27:27Speaker 02

  This is one of the many messages Reza Pahlavi has directed towards the Iranian people in the last few weeks.

• 27:36Speaker 02

  Dear people of Iran, my brave compatriots, you have over the last two weeks shaken the Islamic Republic at its foundations.

• 27:45Speaker 07

  He made a call and said that Iranians, regardless of your political chants that you want to use, you should be out on the rooftops or in the streets making those chants. And I saw activists and celebrities in Iran endorse this call for change in Iran that he pushed for.

• 28:05Speaker 03

  Reza Pahlavi has said he wants to be a transitional leader if the Islamic Republic falls, helping the country towards a referendum on what the future government should look like. He's also cozied up to the Islamic Republic's biggest enemies, like Israel and the United States. With all of that, Ali Al-Funei is not convinced that Reza Pahlavi can actually deliver on his promises.

• 28:31Speaker 06

  I'm still not seeing Mr. Azabahavi as an effective leader of the revolution. But I do see him as a symbolic figurehead. And I also do believe that many Iranians, when looking at him, they think of an almost mythical era when there was no air pollution in Tehran. The grocery was inexpensive. And taxi drivers were really polite. That nostalgia is something that endears Mr. Azabahavi to many, many Iranians. But is he an effective leader of the revolution? I'm not entirely sure.

• 29:15Speaker 06

  Perhaps he will emerge as a leader in the coming years.

• 29:23Speaker 02

  There's something that I've noticed about these protests that seem to be different from the ones in the past. And it's centered around what we can tell, at least, from symbolism. And what is the flag that many people are flying? Can you talk about what the lion and sun flag is, basically, and how it differs from Iran's official flag? And what that means?

• 29:47Speaker 07

  I know that some associate the lion and sun flag with the monarchy, but it's actually a flag that's been around for a very long time. There's been various, there's been different variations of it throughout history.

• 30:00Speaker 03

  The sun and lion is a symbol that's been around since ancient Persia. It's a symbol that represents a couple of key concepts that have been important to Iranian people throughout its history. The lion represents strength, kinship, protection, basically a stand-in for great heroes. The sun symbolizes light, life, wisdom, and divinity, representing God. It was used on the Iranian national flag for generations.

• 30:30Speaker 07

  And it was only after the 79 revolution was the line in the sun replaced with an Allah, which is God in it.

• 30:39Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 30:39Speaker 07

  But a big picture, why it's being utilized, it's for several reasons. It's because it runs counter to the Islamic Republic. It's seen as a symbol of patriotism. I think the clerical establishment has recognized it. They've dabbled with nationalism here and there. It really surprised me how hard they leaned into the Shahnameh or the Book of Kings, which is the epic of the Iranian people written by the poet Fardusi.

• 31:07Speaker 02

  That's a change, right? To me, it shows that there's this underlying, deep desire for sort of a nationalistic, pre-Islamic cultural identity to reemerge in Iran.

• 31:18Speaker 07

  I think what happened was that they realized that Iranians weren't going to take the Islamic version of events. They'd shoved it down their throat for so long that they had thrown it up and they weren't going to take it anymore. And so the regime has spent time and energy for years to trying to invest in this pre-Islamic identity to kind of bring the people back on their side, tapping into nationalism, tapping into ancient Persian mythology. And as it's clear from these anti-regime protests, it didn't work.

• 31:55Speaker 02

  The regime's response to these protests, like they have in the past, has been extremely violent. The numbers we are seeing, even on the conservative side, are shocking. If you could describe their strategy in these response traditionally, like why they respond in this way, what are they thinking?

• 32:13Speaker 06

  Their logic is that now we are facing, the regime is facing, not just peaceful protesters, but also an armed opposition and possibly an ethnic armed insurgency.

• 32:29Speaker 02

  Kurdish armed groups based in Iraq have said that they are conducting operations to protect protesters in Iran, where there is also a Kurdish minority.

• 32:38Speaker 06

  Therefore, the regime can take liberties and engage in excessive response against the protests. That is how they legitimize extreme use of force. How this type of things, but how can a regime live with this kind of history? That is again up to the leaders of Islamic Republic. And it is a tragedy unfolding in front of us, truly, truly. I have only one word for it, tragedy.

• 33:11Speaker 03

  There's another element that makes these protests different. The fact that the Islamic Republic has suffered devastating losses in its foreign policy during the last few years. For decades, the Revolutionary Guard, or IRGC, have carefully built proxy military forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. These military forces were created to project the Islamic Republic's power in the Middle East. But over the last few years, Iran's proxy forces have fallen in Lebanon and Syria, dealing them a great blow. On top of all that, in 2025, the United States and Israel attacked Iran's nuclear

• 33:52Speaker 03

  and missile production facilities, and Israel assassinated many of its leaders. This conflict was dubbed "The 12-Day War" by President Trump.

• 34:03Speaker 06

  The Revolutionary Guard has lost prestige due to its continued debacles in the region. First, we saw Israel's near-destruction of Lebanese Hezbollah in 2024. Then we saw the collapse of the Assad regime. And of course, there was the 12-Day War with the decapitation of half of the IRGC's leadership. But nevertheless, due to its decentralized structure and organization, the IRGC managed to continue its operations. It is capable of suppressing the protesters.

• 34:37Speaker 02

  I mean, your description makes it sound like the IRGC's kind of backed into a corner, more or less. What options do they have at this point?

• 34:47Speaker 06

  The Islamic Republic needs an economic solution. And the economic solution for Iran's Ilkhan can be found in Washington. In other words, what the Islamic Republic needs is an agreement with President Trump. President Trump has, on the other hand, at times indicated that he would be open to a Venezuela-style agreement with the Islamic Republic. What happened in Venezuela? In Venezuela, there was a change of leadership, but not necessarily a change of the regime. The same, I believe, could be applied to the Islamic Republic. Who knows what will happen to Ayatollah Khamenei, who is currently 86 years old?

• 35:28Speaker 06

  He may pass away, perhaps under mysterious circumstances. And the leadership of the Islamic Republic could perhaps make an agreement with President Trump. There is no need for them to tie their own destinies to the destiny of Ayatollah Khamenei. Why should they not survive if the Venezuelan regime can survive?

• 35:53Speaker 02

  Okay, but are you saying that Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, could be betrayed by the Revolutionary Guard, who were supposed to take orders from him? I think for a lot of us who've been watching Iran for a long time, that's almost unthinkable.

• 36:09Speaker 06

  Roman emperors were at times kept captive by their own praetorian guard. Ottoman sultans at times were kept captive and were hostages in the hands of their Yenisari guard. Nowadays, it is the Revolutionary Guard, which at times pursues its own interests. It is an enterprise of more than 150,000 active-duty soldiers and officers. It is an economic enterprise with billion dollars' worth of investments inside of Iran. And it is a cultural entity, it is a political party, it is so many things.

• 36:54Speaker 06

  And all of these bureaucracies, they would want to survive and they are not interested in tying their own destinies to the destiny of an 86-years-old man. They think about the future, not about the past.

• 37:10Speaker 02

  One, I think, confusing element for Americans and non-Iranians, or people outside of Iran, is that we're hearing so much about Gen Z and about how much of the country is turning away from the vision of the Islamic Republic. But at the same time, someone is doing the shooting in the security forces. Who's actually the ones taking up the guns and shooting these protesters, despite the fact that the regime has essentially more or less failed the entire country? Regardless of their ideological beliefs, economics affect everyone. So where are they finding this base of support?

• 37:43Speaker 07

  I think that's a very important question. You have to remember, there's still a 30% rule. 30% rule of thumb is that an authoritarian regime can survive. That was the New Yorker's Robin Wright that said that. And I think there's something to it. And so I would say that's probably a safe number to say how much regime support's left of this country.

• 38:08Speaker 02

  That's significant, though.

• 38:09Speaker 07

  It is and it isn't. Because, yes, it's enough to hand a gun over to someone and shoot protesters. But it's dwindling. It's dwindling time after time, year after year. And, you know, the more Iranians see and learn, the more they know. This actually played out in this movie that was nominated last year at the Oscars, The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

• 38:46Speaker 07

  This movie was basically the microcosm of Iranian society. It was this conservative family, but these Gen Z young siblings that are pushing back against the parents and they're brainwashing.

• 39:05Speaker 07

  And it was very much like a symbol of the fight between the youth and the clerical establishment. And I think that thanks to social media and the internet and satellite dishes, young people are increasingly seeing and peeling away from maybe the conservative household or pro regime household they live in. It doesn't mean that everybody feels that way. I mean, there's always going to be those diehard believers. But I think that's what brought us to this moment, that that number's so small today.

• 39:43Speaker 03

  Coming up, how will the US respond to the protests? And where does Iran go from here?

• 39:53Speaker 09

  Hi, this is Justin Whitlow from Leicester, North Carolina. And you are listening to Three Line. I want to say that the show is an absolutely wonderful show. I appreciate your deep dive into really interesting stories and the work that you do. Thank you so much.

• 40:14Speaker 05

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• 41:32Speaker 00

  Part three. Fire under ashes.

• 41:37Speaker 02

  Since the taping of these interviews on January 14, 2026, the protests in Iran have mostly been ended by the Islamic Republic. The death toll is in the thousands and continuing to rise. President Donald Trump has expressed support for the Iranian protesters and has threatened the Iranian government. On January 9, he warned the Islamic Republic to not kill demonstrators, saying, "I told the Iranian leaders, you better not start shooting because we'll start shooting too." Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei responded by calling President Trump "a criminal." And the US military has sent an aircraft carrier to the Middle East, bringing up more questions about how the US intends to engage.

• 42:21Speaker 06

  Military action is probably not the first priority of President Trump. But should he engage in such an endeavor, his options will also be relatively limited because he presumably would not want to kill the protesters. He only wants to kill and neutralize or weaken the Revolutionary Guard, perhaps by attacking their bases. But I'm sure that the Revolutionary Guard will also have its countermeasures to protect itself.

• 42:48Speaker 02

  I'm reminded of 2009 in that President Obama made some hints or encouragement to the Iranian protesters then, and then ended up with a kind of nuclear deal. President Trump has made even more severe threats. If he doesn't fulfill those threats, what might that do to the future of a protest movement?

• 43:08Speaker 06

  In the 1950s and 60s, whenever there were popular uprisings against communist dictatorships in Hungary, in Czechoslovakia, and Poland, Radio Free Europe would send and transmit messages to the people saying that the US government was supporting them. So these people took arms and they fought against the Soviet Occupation Army, and they lost because there was no US intervention to protect them. I am afraid that by sending messages and by encouraging the protesters, but not necessarily using military means to protect those protesters,

• 43:51Speaker 06

  President Trump is committing the same mistake as his predecessors during the Cold War. And again, this too will make Iranians even more cynical about the future.

• 44:04Speaker 02

  Yeah. Okay, so we've covered the US. Let's switch gears for a second and talk about Israel. Israel and Iran's conflict is ongoing, and it's really ratcheted up since October 7th for obvious reasons we've covered on this show. Would you say that this is an opening of a new chapter where Israel is more on the offensive vis a vis Iran? And within Iran, and what does that spell for the future of this protest?

• 44:33Speaker 06

  The Islamic Republic has been meddling in the internal affairs of Israel and has also tried to mobilize Israel's neighbors against it. Israel is now doing exactly the same thing with Iran, trying to steer the ethnic minorities in the periphery regions against the central government in Iran. So it's a tit for tat. But unfortunately for Iran, Israel is this almost impenetrable fortress, and Iran is not. The borders are wide open. The government of Israel fundamentally believes it is capable of overthrowing the government in Tehran. But they perhaps also believe it is possible to foment a civil war in Iran.

• 45:16Speaker 06

  And partition of Iran may be one of the objectives of some Israeli planners. And should the opposition win, should the Islamic Republic collapse, and let's say Mr. Azabale take over power in Iran, I'm actually not sure that it would satisfy the government of Israel. We have seen that the government of Israel was not happy with Mr. Shahra taking power in Syria, despite Mr. Shahra's best efforts to normalize relations with Israel. And Israel is still continuing to undermine Syria. So I'm not seeing why Israel should treat Iran in a kinder way than it has treated Syria.

• 45:58Speaker 02

  We're on here, January 14th, taping this. The regime has obviously used extreme violence to try to put this protest down, as they have in past protest cycles. Is there anything different about this set of protests you're seeing right now that will lead you to believe that we might see a different outcome? Because in the past, it's been protest, violence, end of protest. Wait a few more years and another protest will start. Is there anything different you're seeing here?

• 46:29Speaker 07

  I mean, I think the level of brutality they've committed and the communications shutdown, this massacre that we keep talking about, I don't think the Islamic Republic can come back from that. And it's not just me saying it. Before the massacre happened, we had Carnegie's Karim Sajadpour and Jack Goldstone, an expert on revolutions and uprisings, co-author of "Peace in the Atlantic", and they said that this winter, for the first time since 1979, the Islamic Republic had checked all boxes for collapse. I think it really tells you the direction of where things are going.

• 47:11Speaker 07

  And after this massacre, they've crossed a line that I don't think any Iranian could see past anymore.

• 47:26Speaker 06

  As of January 14th, I, Ali Al-Funeh, believe that the Islamic Republic manages to contain and effectively suppress protests for a time. But then these protests will flare up again because Iran's economic woes remain unresolved. And therefore, the Islamic Republic has to reach an agreement with President Trump and receive sanction relief. So I do believe that this regime, its demise and collapse is neither imminent nor inevitable. The regime will fight for its survival. And one of those ways is a negotiated solution with President Trump.

• 48:13Speaker 02

  People, you know, I make this assumption, but how much do you think this is about democracy versus just getting rid of the regime? Are those things too, like, hand in hand?

• 48:22Speaker 07

  Well, I get the sense that this is for a call for a transition. And transition, you have to, in order to have a transition, arguably, you should have free and fair elections. The Iranians could decide they want a monarchy tomorrow, but that needs to be decided in an election.

• 48:40Speaker 02

  So it's, yeah, I mean, I guess democracy is one word to use, but choice seems like the other.

• 48:45Speaker 07

  Choice.

• 48:46Speaker 02

  That they have not had one all the way up to now.

• 48:48Speaker 07

  Absolutely not. And I think this is, when you say you don't want the regime, it means you want something positive. What's the opposite of the Islamic Republic? I would think of an authoritarian regime, I would think it's democracy. But again, these things will be decided in a free and fair elections in a free Iran. And that's what we should be aspiring for, a free Iran.

• 49:06Speaker 02

  What is the most important thing for the American audience to know about what's happening in Iran right now?

• 49:12Speaker 07

  I would say that the Iranian people have been living under a dictatorship they don't want for 47 years. And they have the same needs and wants as the people everywhere, including Americans. And they are probably the most pro-American in the Middle East. And we should be paying attention to them because we are a country that believes in freedom and democracy. And that's exactly what Iranians are aspiring to.

• 49:53Speaker 03

  That's it for this week's show. I'm Rund Abdelfatah.

• 49:57Speaker 02

  I'm Ramtin Arablouei. And you've been listening to Throughline from NPR.

• 50:01Speaker 03

  This episode was produced by me.

• 50:03Speaker 02

  And me and... Lawrence Wu.

• 50:06Speaker 03

  Julie Kane. Anya Steinberg. Casey Minor. Christina Kim.

• 50:11Speaker 10

  Devin Kadyama.

• 50:12Speaker 00

  Irene Noguchi. Kiana Mulrathem.

• 50:14Speaker 10

  Thomas Coltrane.

• 50:18Speaker 03

  Fact checking was done by Andrea Lopez-Cruzado.

• 50:22Speaker 02

  Also, thank you to Johannes Derge, Beth Donovan, Tommy Evans, Arzu Rezvani, Tony Kavan, and James Hyder.

• 50:31Speaker 03

  This episode was mixed by Jimmy Keeley. Music for this episode was composed by Ramtin.

• 50:37Speaker 02

  And finally, if you have an idea or like something you heard on the show, please write us at [email protected]. And make sure to rate us and leave us a comment on Apple or Spotify. It helps other people find the show.

• 50:51Speaker 03

  Thanks for listening.

• 51:02Speaker 05

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