Pod Insights The Vergecast Our hottest and coldest 2025 takes About this episode Welcome to our two-part preview of the year to come! For the first installment, Nilay, David, and Wall Street Journal columnist Joanna Stern bring all the predictions for 2025 — their mildest, medium-est, and spiciest ideas about the year to come. Each host presents their take on TikTok bans, social platforms, smart homes, streaming services, and more, and the others get to decide whether they agree. Whoever gets the most right at the end of the year will win a big prize. (There's a points system for determining all that, but we'll figure that out later.)
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Transcript 13,475 words · 6 speakers
Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
0:02 David Pierce? Welcome to The Vergecast, the flagship podcast of extremely mild, very hot takes. I'm your friend David Pierce and I am Christmas shopping. I have my whole list. I'm very organized this year. I have all the people that I need. I know roughly what I'm getting them. I had like a big self brainstorm of ideas, but do you know what I discovered? For me at least, the single hardest thing to buy is like a pretty good $20 gift. The things for like secret Santa parties or colleagues at work or just this like list of people in the world, you need to get something, but you don't know them well enough to really get something like super personal and also it might be weird if you did. And you don't want to spend a ton of money.
0:45 David Pierce? I think this is why I end up both like giving and receiving a lot of Starbucks gift cards every year. It's just a pretty universally useful thing that people like. But I don't want to do that so much anymore. I just don't know what else to do. I'm sort of lost on this idea of like, what is a good $20 relatively safe and universally liked gift to give? If you have the answer, I want to know. Please tell me sincerely, you will make everything about my holiday planning for forever better and easier. So get at me. Anyway, this episode is the first in a two-part series we're doing about 2025. It's the end of 2024. We're doing some looking back on this show, but we thought it would also be fun to spend some time looking forward.
1:30 David Pierce? 2025 is going to be a big year in tech. We have a new administration coming into office that is going to change the way that we think about a lot of politics and regulation and has a lot of feelings about big tech, frankly. We have this AI bubble slash hype cycle slash takeover of the world that is still ongoing. We have all kinds of questions about antitrust and big tech and what's going to happen to the venture capital world. There's just a lot going on and it feels like in so many ways 2025 is going to be maybe not a turning point, but a moment in certain ways. So we figured we'd just look ahead and see what we could guess about what's coming. I grabbed Neelai Patel and the Wall Street Journal's Joanna Stern,
2:14 David Pierce? two of my favorite people to speculate wildly about tech with. And we spent some time doing it. For this first episode, we each came with predictions. I gave them both the homework to come with three different predictions ranked in order of spiciness. And we're just going to go around and talk about it. We invented a little game that if I'm honest, only like half makes sense to me at this point, but we're going to figure it out as we go. It's going to be very fun. All that is coming up in just a second, but first I guess I'm just buying Starbucks gift cards. This is life now. Merry Christmas, everybody. Have some Starbucks. This is the Vergecast. We'll be right back.
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3:24 David Pierce? Welcome back. Neelai Patel is here. Hello. Joanna Stern, hello. We're all in the studio. This is so exciting. This is so happy.
3:31 Speaker 02 I know. I'm gonna look at you or I'm gonna look at both of you.
3:33 David Pierce? Yeah. We have spent like a lot of time in rooms together over the years and not in a very long time. This is very exciting. Uh, okay. Here's how this is going to work. Okay. I have told both of you to come with three predictions for 2025 in increasing level of spiciness, not necessarily like less likely to come true, but like I want your victory lap for each one to be successively bigger. Does that make sense? Like, if you, your third take should be the one that if you're right, you're gonna, you're gonna tell a lot of people about how you were right.
4:05 Nilay Patel? Oh, good.
4:06 Speaker 02 Okay.
4:06 David Pierce? Okay. So, we're gonna go around, we're gonna talk about them. And then, the way that this game plays is after each one of us gives a prediction, we're gonna talk about it, the other two get to decide if they wanna like, co-sign that prediction. Uh, at the end of the year, you get a point if that prediction comes true. I guess you lose a point if it doesn't, because otherwise you should just sign on to all of them.
4:26 Nilay Patel? So you can end up with negative points.
4:28 David Pierce? I think you have to be able to end up with negative points.
4:30 Nilay Patel? Okay.
4:30 David Pierce? Uh, so, there should be some consequence for picking all of them. So, I'm just making up the rules as we go here. So, you, you lose a point, we'll do half points, I'm just kidding. You lose a point if you pick a prediction and it's wrong, but you get a point if you pick a prediction and it's right. At the end of the year, this episode and the next episode, next week, which we're gonna do more 2025 stuff, we're gonna total all the points, and whoever wins, The Vergecast is going to buy you the most cool gadget of 2025. What will it be? How much will it cost? Who knows? But, we're gonna do this again.
5:04 Nilay Patel? This is a roomful of people that does not need help acquiring gadgets.
5:07 Speaker 02 I'm gonna have already bought that.
5:08 Nilay Patel? Can I just get the cash value?
5:10 David Pierce? You can have the cash value. Is, of this prize is 1/100%.
5:15 Speaker 02 Well, it depends.
5:16 Nilay Patel? All right.
5:17 David Pierce? Uh, so, this is what we're doing. We're gonna make it work. I'm excited about it. Uh, Joanna, you're the guest. You get to go first, but we're, we're gonna start small, and build up to it. So what is your, what is your mildest prediction for 2025?
5:29 Speaker 02 I have two.
5:30 David Pierce? Of course.
5:30 Speaker 02 Is that, what, I lose a point already? For having two? Okay, I lose a point, it's fine. I'm starting at negative.
5:36 David Pierce? Perfect.
5:38 Speaker 02 Okay, it's 2026, at the end, or at the end of 2025, and I am still posting to 500 different social media accounts. Because, social media is still more fractured.
5:53 Nilay Patel? Wait, I have a question, a clarifying question for your prediction. Do you mean... Twitter like social media accounts?
6:00 Speaker 02 Yes, yes, and also TikTok.
6:03 Nilay Patel? TikTok and an Instagram post are different.
6:05 Speaker 02 Actually, this was another one in here.
6:06 Nilay Patel? Okay.
6:06 Speaker 02 TikTok survives, so I'm still posting there. I actually don't post there that often, but maybe I shouldn't. Maybe I will. So TikTok survives, but also we've got Blue Sky, we've got Threads, we have something else. We've got Mastodon point 3.0, we've got X, Instagram.
6:25 Nilay Patel? I'm just saying that the Twitter likes.
6:26 Speaker 02 Facebook.
6:27 David Pierce? Yeah, let's just keep it to the Twitter likes for this one.
6:29 Speaker 02 Yeah, I mean, mostly I'm talking about the Twitter likes.
6:31 David Pierce? Yeah.
6:32 Nilay Patel? Because there's no chance the short form video ones are going to consolidate. Like Instagram reels and TikTok and YouTube shorts.
6:38 Speaker 02 I'm just saying there's more. It's just more.
6:40 Nilay Patel? There's just more of them.
6:41 Speaker 02 There was, yes, there was.
6:43 Nilay Patel? You're Yelping for days.
6:44 Speaker 02 This is this, you know, there is years, you know, it was like 2022 where it was like backlash to social media next year, people are going to spend more time. No, next year we are more on social media and I am still posting every day to 500 different accounts. And my AI agent.
7:02 Nilay Patel? Are you going to still post to X?
7:03 Speaker 02 Also coming, but that my AI agent also that that's one of the things it has to do is is keep posting.
7:08 David Pierce? Do you think it's the same set that you're posting to now?
7:12 Speaker 02 There could be more. There's probably going to be more.
7:14 David Pierce? Okay. So you think the number goes up?
7:17 Speaker 02 I don't think the number goes down. And that is my prediction.
7:21 David Pierce? Okay.
7:21 Speaker 02 That is just not going to get any better.
7:25 Nilay Patel? I'm not signing on to this one.
7:26 David Pierce? Oh, I 100% am. You're not? I'm, what, what goes away?
7:30 Speaker 02 Yeah, what wins?
7:31 Nilay Patel? I think that the ability to hit one button and post to multiple Twitter likes will go up and that will, you will experience that as going down. Does that make any sense?
7:45 Speaker 02 Yes, it does, but where am I going to look at all the replies?
7:47 Nilay Patel? Probably, probably one of those clients because of the whole point of these, except for X, which I, I will say will probably stubbornly remain in like a walled garden. Everyone else is going to have to pick a way to interoperate.
7:58 Speaker 02 That's a nice solution.
7:59 Nilay Patel? Even like your truth socials of the world.
8:01 David Pierce? He does get the point, and it is true if, if like if the Fediverse wins.
8:04 Speaker 02 Yep.
8:05 David Pierce? It counts as one. It's now one.
8:07 Nilay Patel? Okay, so this is a new rule.
8:08 David Pierce? No, but that's the whole point. Because the Fediverse is many things, but it is one thing. You only have to post to one place and it posts everything to everywhere. That's the whole point of the Fediverse, right?
8:16 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
8:16 David Pierce? So what you're saying is like, these things will come together in such a way that makes it actually more, but feel like less.
8:22 Nilay Patel? Yeah, and that will enable more to exist.
8:25 David Pierce? Right.
8:26 Nilay Patel? Which so.
8:26 Speaker 02 I think we're saying kind of the same thing, but you win, I think this, I don't even know how the game works, frankly, sorry. But you win because you gave a solution to my problem.
8:34 Nilay Patel? Well, see, I don't know, I don't know what's gonna happen. I just know that even.
8:37 Speaker 02 I think you're right. I think both of our things are going to happen.
8:39 Nilay Patel? Truth Social is a Mastodon clone. It's actually very funny. They just copied the open source Mastodon codebase and the license of Mastodon is so restrictive that Truth Social has to publish its own source code. This is a real thing and they obfuscate it. So now there's like other people who try to un, like clear it up and explain what's going on with Truth. It's very funny, all that's very funny, but the point is.
9:01 Speaker 02 I didn't know you were such a Truth Social user, so.
9:03 Nilay Patel? Well, I'm just keeping track of how you would build new social products and the obvious way to do it is to take the open source projects.
9:10 David Pierce? Right.
9:11 Nilay Patel? So if that's just the way that people begin to build new things, then they're gonna interoperate because those things are already built to interoperate. I don't know that's gonna play out. There's a, there's like, you know, a greater than nothing chance that Blue Sky is like, oh wait, everyone's on Blue Sky and they just shut it down and they become a walled garden. I don't think that's gonna happen, that's not how they talk. I just don't know what's gonna happen six months from now. But my, my belief, the reason I'm not signing out of this prediction is that just at the user level, you'll, for the Twitter likes, you'll push a button, post everywhere and collect all the replies in one place.
9:41 David Pierce? Hmm.
9:42 Speaker 02 Okay.
9:42 David Pierce? I hope you're right, I don't think.
9:43 Speaker 02 I kind of was bundling TikTok in there too, because I, I wanted one of them to be that like TikTok survives, so I was trying to get everything in one. That social media is just still a mess and it's fractured and we're everywhere and we still have a million apps on our phones that we're opening.
9:56 Nilay Patel? Yeah, and I'm just making the split between the things that look like Twitter and the video platforms. The video platforms, I agree, will proliferate.
10:02 David Pierce? Let's, let's take TikTok out because we're gonna come back to TikTok.
10:05 Speaker 02 Yeah, sure.
10:06 David Pierce? I have an odd feeling we're gonna come back to TikTok.
10:08 Speaker 02 I am sure.
10:08 David Pierce? Uh, okay, so I'm, I'm in on that one with Joanna. Neel is out and is wrong. Neel, what's yours? You go first.
10:14 Nilay Patel? It's extremely mild.
10:16 David Pierce? Okay. This is, we will still have computers.
10:20 Nilay Patel? This is like, I didn't put any seasoning on this taco, do you know what I'm saying? I think when they do the Alexa AI, it will be okay.
10:30 Speaker 02 Okay. That's pretty good.
10:33 David Pierce? I was gonna say, that's not as mild a take as it would have been six months ago.
10:36 Nilay Patel? Well, here, let me explain why. So the stakes for Amazon are so low. Right? They're not Google, where they, it has to be good and they have to get it out and the future of all search depends on Gemini. They're not Apple, where they're like, look at this glowing idiot. And they have to fix it and they are advertising their products against it. They're just like, yeah, this thing that does timers is already in your house.
11:03 Nilay Patel? What if it was better? And they have infinity to solve that problem. Like, there's no pressure to solve that problem. And I think Panos will wait. I think he's very comfortable waiting to solve that problem. And so that's, that's it.
11:18 Speaker 02 Well, will he wait till after 2025?
11:21 Nilay Patel? Oh, yeah. My whole prediction is it'll be okay. Like, I'm not saying it'll-
11:25 David Pierce? Will it have launched? Who knows?
11:26 Speaker 02 In this year?
11:28 Nilay Patel? Huh? I, I think it'll, in the next year-
11:30 Speaker 02 See, my second mild was gonna be, Apple intelligence gets better. Because it can't get any worse.
11:36 David Pierce? Yeah, that's also pretty, kind of in the exact same vein, like, thing that sucks-
11:40 Speaker 02 Yes.
11:40 David Pierce? Sucks slightly less?
11:41 Nilay Patel? No, no. See, I, I would counter yours. I think it will get way worse. I think Apple's going to feel the pressure of the other products doing stuff.
11:50 Speaker 02 Okay, yeah.
11:51 Nilay Patel? And they are gonna try to make it do a bunch more stuff, and it can't do those things. As we have all already experienced.
11:58 David Pierce? But you don't think Amazon's gonna feel that pressure? No, that same pressure's coming from Amazon.
12:01 Nilay Patel? But they don't have a business based on that pressure.
12:03 Speaker 02 Right.
12:03 Nilay Patel? Right? If one person switches from an iPhone to a Pixel, because Gemini can do something, that's like, they have a meeting. Like, Tim Cook is like, everybody get in here. What is going on? Where are our robots?
12:14 David Pierce? Should we kill RCS? Yeah.
12:16 Nilay Patel? It's, right, there's a whole thing that happens. It's bad. Amazon is like, what are you gonna do? You're gonna get a Google Assistant? Like, no you're not. Like, you're lazy. Use it to, to play, play music and set timers. So that's, that's the mildest prediction I have. They will wait.
12:29 David Pierce? Okay.
12:30 Nilay Patel? I could be wrong.
12:31 David Pierce? It's a pretty mild prediction. I'm actually out on that one. Uh, I think if you had made this prediction in- July, or like this time last year, I would have been with you. But now I feel like the longer it goes and every new headline that is like, actually, the new Alexa sucks. It does feel like the pressure is getting higher.
12:50 Nilay Patel? Well, there isn't a new Alexa yet.
12:52 David Pierce? The new Alexa that they announced over a year ago.
12:55 Speaker 02 They've announced it forever.
12:56 David Pierce? And haven't shipped. It's like, it's, it's, we know what it is. They told us what it is and then they didn't ship it. And it feels like.
13:02 Nilay Patel? But it has to arrive. That's what I'm saying. It has the best shot. Maybe I'll revise my prediction. Of all of these, it has the best shot of being okay.
13:09 David Pierce? It, it, that's probably true. I think I would agree with that.
13:12 Nilay Patel? They have the most ability to wait.
13:13 David Pierce? Yeah. I do think the new Alexa is going to get a lot of people fired. That's my, that's my other take.
13:20 Speaker 02 Well, that's my thing. It's like, I kind of want it to not be okay. It will be so funny if it's not okay.
13:26 Nilay Patel? This is your.
13:27 David Pierce? Can you imagine? Cause they especially, they have this giant install base of like regular people who use these things all the time.
13:32 Speaker 02 That's like the Apple intelligence stuff. It's so funny when you see these things happen. Yeah, I'm actually, I'm with Nilay because, well, no, I'm not with you.
13:42 Nilay Patel? I'm not with you.
13:42 Speaker 02 I'm not with you because I want it to not be okay.
13:46 Nilay Patel? You just want the headlines.
13:47 Speaker 02 Yeah, I think the headline would just.
13:49 David Pierce? We're, you're imagining the video you're going to make about terrible Alexa. And you're like, it's much better if it sucks than if it's good.
13:54 Speaker 02 Yeah.
13:55 Nilay Patel? We were at home for Thanksgiving and every time my mom set a timer on our Alexa, it played an audio clip from the movie, The Wild Robot. And she, and she had not seen this movie. Max and I have seen this movie. And so the thing would be like, processing beep boop bop. And then it would like, set the timer. And my mom would be like, what's wrong with Alexa?
14:11 Speaker 02 Wait, Amazon just built that and it's like a fun thing?
14:13 Nilay Patel? Yeah, it's just like, every time you do, it's like, it's like processing. Like it does the thing that the robot does in that movie. And Max is like, losing her mind. She thinks it's the cutest thing in the world. And my mom is like, why is my Alexa so much stupider than it was?
14:29 David Pierce? Wait, that's actually such a perfect example of why ambient computing is so impossible. Like what a perfect low stakes example of like, you have to build a thing that makes sense to everyone in the room. And that's so hard to do.
14:40 Nilay Patel? Yeah, it was just like, out of context, it made no sense, except for the six year old was like, I love that movie.
14:48 Speaker 02 Wait, they did, they rolled this out to everyone?
14:49 Nilay Patel? They rolled it out to my mom.
14:51 Speaker 02 That's not smart.
14:52 Nilay Patel? She didn't turn it on on purpose.
14:53 Speaker 02 That's absolutely not smart.
14:54 Nilay Patel? I know. Did he? Well, I mean, I thought it was delightful. In many ways, my mother's experience of computers is exactly the same as Max's experience of computers. In that things happen until they stop happening and they ask me to fix them.
15:07 Speaker 02 Right.
15:08 Nilay Patel? And then I have to deduce what happened here. And I don't know that she ever went and turned on the wireless.
15:12 Speaker 02 I'm gonna call my mom and ask her to talk to Alexa with me on the phone today to see if she got this.
15:17 Nilay Patel? You know.
15:17 Speaker 02 They have it in the kitchen. They have it like.
15:18 Nilay Patel? That's, that's what it's for. And I'm telling you, they just, they just have to wait. People are gonna keep using them set timers. And then one day they're like, your Alexa's way smarter. And then everyone's gonna fall in love with their kitchen timer.
15:29 Speaker 02 Okay, David, what's yours?
15:30 David Pierce? All right, that's a good one. Joanna and I are both out, so we'll see. Uh, I'm actually out. Joanna is just crossing her fingers and hoping.
15:36 Speaker 02 Yeah.
15:36 David Pierce? Uh, mine is that, uh, I think this is, this gets milder by the day, I think. Uh, cable TV is going to pretty much totally die in 2025. Like, the idea that you are going to have a cable box through which you get television, and it's a bunch of linear channels, and that's what you pay a lot of money for and mostly watch, is going to be essentially completely out of style.
16:00 Nilay Patel? I have a number of follow up questions.
16:01 David Pierce? Okay.
16:03 Nilay Patel? When you say pretty much die, there, there, there won't be any anymore?
16:09 David Pierce? There will be some, but it'll be, it'll be like the people who still get AOL discs in the mail and pay for it.
16:15 Nilay Patel? Which sustained AOL for years.
16:17 David Pierce? It's, it's, there are still people who do it, right? Like, it's, it's still a thing that exists, but it.
16:21 Nilay Patel? When we work today, well, there are people who are like, you know, this whole company runs on CDs in the mail.
16:25 David Pierce? Oh, yeah. And there are still, I'm sure, some, you know, hundreds of thousands or millions of people who pay for America Online.
16:32 Speaker 02 They pay for their email address.
16:34 David Pierce? Yeah. And so that, I think, will continue more or less forever. But like, it's going to die to the extent that it is no longer an interesting business to the companies that run it. Like, the thing that Comcast is doing where it's spinning off all of its cable channels, everyone is going to do that, and they are going to just absolutely run away from cable channels.
16:54 Nilay Patel? Okay, so second follow up question.
16:55 David Pierce? Yeah.
16:56 Nilay Patel? YouTube TV and Fubo and Sling, your over the top cable bundles, are they included?
17:03 David Pierce? They don't count in this. And I, I grant that this is, I'm, I'm like splitting hairs on that one, but they are meaningfully different products.
17:13 Speaker 02 So you're talking about like the Xfinity offering?
17:16 David Pierce? The, the box is really the thing.
17:17 Speaker 02 The box, the guy that comes to your house.
17:20 Nilay Patel? Third follow up question.
17:21 David Pierce? The cable that I buy from my internet provider, which is essentially what it is now, is gone.
17:27 Nilay Patel? So third, third follow up question. You can really tell that it was just in my parents' house. They don't have Spectrum boxes anymore. They have an insane Spectrum app on their Apple TVs.
17:34 David Pierce? Yeah.
17:35 Nilay Patel? Which does not, it's, it's not great. It's not.
17:40 David Pierce? It has a grid and it has channels?
17:42 Nilay Patel? Yeah, you know what I mean? It's like, it's super there.
17:44 Speaker 02 So they're paying Spectrum for those channels?
17:46 Nilay Patel? Right.
17:46 Speaker 02 And they, that's everything.
17:48 Nilay Patel? And then it is broadly the same as YouTube TV. She can watch it on her iPad wherever she is. So that's like a big win. Does that count?
17:56 David Pierce? No, but I can't explain why. Oh wait, no, that counts as cable.
18:01 Speaker 02 I think it is a little too broad here.
18:03 Nilay Patel? But that's not YouTube TV.
18:04 David Pierce? Okay, let me, let me say this more, I can be more specific.
18:07 Nilay Patel? What are you killing?
18:08 David Pierce? I'm killing everything except YouTube TV and Hulu with live TV. I'm killing all of it, except those two things.
18:14 Nilay Patel? Okay.
18:15 David Pierce? That's where I'm at.
18:16 Nilay Patel? I'm super out in this.
18:17 David Pierce? You're out on this one.
18:17 Nilay Patel? I think, I think inertia.
18:19 David Pierce? Again, not dead, but, but completely uninteresting to everyone, including the people that run these services.
18:26 Nilay Patel? My parents also have an illegal Indian IPTV box that gets every channel for free, including locals and 4K. And that is.
18:33 David Pierce? They pay for the Spectrum app on their iPads?
18:34 Nilay Patel? No, they pay some guy on Venmo over the phone once a year.
18:39 Speaker 02 What?
18:39 Nilay Patel? These things, you should write a column. There's, there's an entire economy of these things.
18:42 David Pierce? Wow.
18:42 Speaker 02 What?
18:43 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
18:44 David Pierce? Okay, that's fantastic.
18:45 Speaker 02 This, I was gonna say, this episode is.
18:47 David Pierce? I think that counts. I think your parents are on my side.
18:50 Speaker 02 I was gonna say.
18:50 Nilay Patel? It's very entertaining.
18:51 Speaker 02 The title of this episode was gonna be Neelai Goes to Visit His Parents.
18:54 Nilay Patel? No, I just blew.
18:55 Speaker 02 It's actually Neelai Gets His Parents Arrested.
18:57 Nilay Patel? Yeah. No, no, I just blew up like the entire Indian uncle economy here. This is what they talk about, they all know a guy, there are scams.
19:05 David Pierce? It's fantastic.
19:06 Nilay Patel? It's great.
19:06 David Pierce? All right, so Neelai's out. Joanna, are you and her out?
19:09 Speaker 02 I'm still not sure I understand, so I'm out.
19:11 David Pierce? Yes, you do.
19:11 Nilay Patel? Do you think, she thinks traditional cable's going away, except for YouTube.
19:14 David Pierce? Joanna just keeps getting more cable boxes.
19:16 Nilay Patel? By the way, this implies.
19:16 Speaker 02 No, I don't have cable boxes. And my parents don't have cable boxes. And I'm, I'm in this, I'm just not talking about my parents as much as Eli, because I didn't feel like this was Joanna talks about.
19:25 Nilay Patel? I love my parents.
19:26 Speaker 02 I love my parents. And they have a lot of the same commonality with your, let's get our parents to, let's bring our parents to this podcast.
19:34 David Pierce? Done.
19:34 Speaker 02 Done.
19:35 Nilay Patel? No, thank you.
19:38 Speaker 02 But I guess I'm in.
19:40 David Pierce? Okay, great, love it. Joanna just picking it random. I am writing these down.
19:45 Speaker 02 Where?
19:46 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
19:46 David Pierce? And I have a doc.
19:48 Nilay Patel? Every cable company except for YouTube TV is going out of business.
19:50 David Pierce? Every cable not going out of business, don't.
19:53 Nilay Patel? Just irrelevant.
19:54 Speaker 02 Aren't they already irrelevant? Yeah, that's the thing. I think it's already happened.
19:57 David Pierce? We've been doing this thing where they all invest in streaming and bank the money from cable. That's been happening for a very long time and everybody thought it was going to happen for a really long time and then it isn't. And I think it's going to, the, the speed of that death of the cable money is going to increase so fast that by this time next year, it's going to be essentially a write-off for all of these companies, literal or figurative.
20:21 Speaker 02 I think a lot of it is still already, but yeah.
20:23 David Pierce? We're getting there fast.
20:23 Speaker 02 I think that's what we're.
20:24 David Pierce? All right, let's take a break and then we're going to get to our medium takes.
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21:03 David Pierce? All right, we're back. Spicy time. Let's flip the order. Not spiciest, just spicier. Neela, you go first this time. What's your, what's your most medium prediction for 2025?
21:15 Nilay Patel? Medium?
21:16 David Pierce? Yeah.
21:17 Nilay Patel? Walmart buys TikTok.
21:19 David Pierce? Walmart?
21:20 Nilay Patel? Walmart buys TikTok.
21:21 David Pierce? This is your medium take?
21:22 Nilay Patel? Medium. It's just gonna be Amazon or Walmart.
21:24 David Pierce? It's like zesty, but you're not.
21:26 Nilay Patel? Yeah, I think there's only two possible.
21:28 David Pierce? This is like the third question on Hot Ones level of, of spice is what we're talking about. Okay.
21:32 Nilay Patel? Well, so he, like Donald Trump has said, I won't shut it down. He, one of his big benefactors, a major investor in TikTok, but he can't overturn the law that Congress already passed that says TikTok has to go and app stores have to kick it out. So the number of options are very limited. And I don't think that he cares what happens. And I don't think the people on TikTok actually care what happens. Right?
21:56 David Pierce? As long as TikTok continues to exist.
21:58 Nilay Patel? As long as TikTok continues to exist. So there's this very natural out, which they should sell it, which is a thing the law is sort of designed to force into happening. And then Trump loves a deal. Whether or not those deals are real, whether or not LCD factories actually get built. We love talking about deals. So then who are you going to sell it to? Amazon is terrified of TikTok because it's basically QVC. But even then, I think you get some weird antitrust concerns. The other big tech companies will basically say no. So you're kind of stuck with the other big store. Because that's all TikTok is, is a funnel into TikTok shop.
22:32 David Pierce? Yeah.
22:33 Speaker 02 And hasn't the biggest sticking point been the algorithm?
22:37 Nilay Patel? Yeah, it's like who controls it.
22:39 Speaker 02 Right. And what makes you, what makes you think that ByteDance is going to say, okay, we're giving it all, we'll sell it all.
22:45 Nilay Patel? What makes anyone think that people can perceive the quality of an algorithm? Like, that was a very important sticky. Like, when TikTok was growing, this was important, right?
22:59 Speaker 02 Right.
23:00 Nilay Patel? Because it was finding you interest, it would like be really, really valuable. And now it's kind of like, you can make that thing 20% worse and all the people are already on it.
23:08 David Pierce? Yep.
23:08 Nilay Patel? And really, all you're trying to get them to do is shop. And we can watch Elon Musk just like dial the Twitter algorithm at will and it doesn't seem to matter to that audience. So I, I think there's less danger there than anyone thinks.
23:20 David Pierce? It does feel anecdotally like the sort of perceived quality gap in like how well the platform knows me between Reels, Shorts and TikTok has gotten much smaller.
23:32 Speaker 02 Yeah, I agree.
23:32 David Pierce? Like, I think, I, for so long, it was like Reels was old TikToks and Shorts was just like over here doing something else that everyone hated. I feel like they're all the same thing now.
23:43 Nilay Patel? Yeah, and a bunch of the creators have figured out I post the same stuff to the same platforms that are getting dinged. That's, this is my medium take. I don't actually know it's going to happen. But if you're going to sell it, which seems like the most likely outcome. Because otherwise, they have to overturn a law that a bunch of Republican members of Congress passed. Still hard.
24:00 David Pierce? Why isn't it Amazon, though? I feel like it's Amazon.
24:03 Speaker 02 Because I think he's right on the antitrust stuff.
24:04 Nilay Patel? Because I think Meta and Google and Apple all get mad about this.
24:08 David Pierce? Yeah. And same for all of those other companies. What if it's Netflix? What if Netflix is just like, what's up? Short form video, we own TikTok now.
24:16 Nilay Patel? Yeah, I can see it. I don't think Netflix super wants to be in that business. Like, they don't want to be in a user-generated content.
24:22 David Pierce? Netflix is like specifically pitting itself against all of those companies.
24:25 Nilay Patel? Right, and also, they're, they're not gonna convert into Netflix subscriptions, which is the only thing they sell.
24:32 David Pierce? Right.
24:32 Nilay Patel? Walmart's like, here's some garbage. I saw a man on TikTok yesterday trying to sell me a wall-mounted hose reel as an innovation that I should buy for my family for Christmas. And I was like, my dude, my dad bought that shit at Menards in 1982. Like, what are we doing on this platform right now? And that, that's just where we are on TikTok. It is just a store.
24:55 Speaker 02 Yeah. No, like, there was a point where my whole entire feed was just hair products. I was like, I already have a hair iron.
25:02 Nilay Patel? And you're like, my mom bought these at Menards.
25:06 Speaker 02 My current hair iron, I bought at Menards. Google's Menards.
25:10 Nilay Patel? Great.
25:11 David Pierce? Because Menards are real fit.
25:13 Speaker 02 What is Menards?
25:14 David Pierce? Is this like a Midwest thing? Do we need to talk about this?
25:16 Nilay Patel? I gotta stop hanging out with East Coasters. Yeah, this is like the most deeply Wisconsin store in the world.
25:20 Speaker 02 Is that your version of Home Depot?
25:22 Nilay Patel? It's, it's superior.
25:24 Speaker 02 It's your version of Lowe's?
25:26 Nilay Patel? Yeah, this is like, I knew Menards when they, like, first album.
25:29 David Pierce? I see.
25:30 Speaker 02 Does Menards have Taft to pay?
25:32 Nilay Patel? Home Depot is the chain smokers. I want to be very clear about the comparison I'm making here.
25:38 David Pierce? That works for me.
25:39 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
25:39 David Pierce? Uh, I'm actually in on this one. I like it. I think somebody is going to buy TikTok.
25:44 Nilay Patel? Yes.
25:44 David Pierce? And I feel like Walmart's as good a bet as any. So I'm, I'm in on this one.
25:47 Speaker 02 And I just believe TikTok survives. So.
25:51 Nilay Patel? That's your medium take.
25:52 Speaker 02 No, that was my like.
25:53 David Pierce? Yeah, the mild take would have been TikTok survives.
25:55 Speaker 02 That was my mild take. It was like, all the social media survives and we get more.
25:59 David Pierce? Right.
26:00 Speaker 02 Sure. Walmart seems nice.
26:02 David Pierce? All right.
26:02 Nilay Patel? So you're in.
26:03 David Pierce? We're all in.
26:03 Speaker 02 Sure, I'm in.
26:03 David Pierce? I love it. All right, I'll go next. My medium prediction, which I actually think might be spicier than I realized, uh, is that someone in 2025 is going to make an AI gadget that like actually kicks ass and it's going to be a huge hit.
26:17 Nilay Patel? This is your medium?
26:18 David Pierce? This is my medium.
26:19 Nilay Patel? Compared to my mild of Alexa is okay?
26:22 David Pierce? Yeah, like, I don't know, it probably won't be the rabbit R2 or the humane AI pin 2 or so, but like, maybe it's the next meta Ray-Ban smart glasses that go like deep into more AI stuff. Maybe it's like, AirPods, something. So I don't know. Somebody is going to make a gadget that is like explicitly about AI and it's going to be awesome and tons of people are going to want it.
26:48 Speaker 02 Okay, actually mine is similar to that high medium take, but we should all vote on yours first.
26:56 Nilay Patel? No.
26:56 David Pierce? No? This is not gonna happen? What about this Sam Altman Johnny Ive thing?
27:00 Nilay Patel? This is deeply related to.
27:01 Speaker 02 I don't think the Johnny Ive thing's coming out this year.
27:03 Nilay Patel? I have like three spicy takes and this is deeply related to one of them.
27:06 David Pierce? Okay. Well, then you're not going to give it to me. So what was your spicy take that you're?
27:10 Nilay Patel? Oh, sure. Yeah, well, I'll just do it now. I'll just roll this. This is a rebuttal.
27:13 David Pierce? Yeah.
27:14 Speaker 02 Okay, that's a good order.
27:16 Nilay Patel? AI conclusively proven to be a bubble.
27:18 David Pierce? Ooh.
27:18 Speaker 02 Mmm.
27:20 David Pierce? Okay.
27:20 Nilay Patel? It's Bluetooth. I just, it's Bluetooth. Next year Bluetooth is gonna be great.
27:25 David Pierce? AI is Bluetooth?
27:26 Nilay Patel? AI is Bluetooth. Everyone talks about it the same way. They make the same lofty predictions about what Bluetooth is gonna do.
27:32 Speaker 02 When did they do that?
27:34 Nilay Patel? All the time. They were like, these headphones are gonna rule. And then you're like, well, Apple had to hijack the entire Bluetooth protocol and make their own Bluetooth.
27:40 Speaker 02 Isn't it more like a different memory of Bluetooth?
27:42 David Pierce? Isn't it more like AI is 5G?
27:44 Speaker 02 Yeah.
27:45 David Pierce? In that case.
27:46 Nilay Patel? Sure, sure. Whatever garbage wireless protocol you want to use.
27:51 Nilay Patel? Whatever garbage wireless protocol you want to use, go for it. But Bluetooth in particular was like an enabling technology that never panned out. Right? That you would have an ecosystem
28:02 David Pierce? Yep.
28:02 Nilay Patel? of products all over you, around you, that were all Bluetooth together. The smart home would run on Bluetooth low energy. All that stuff exists. It's there.
28:11 Speaker 02 Yeah, because that's where I would think you were going.
28:12 Nilay Patel? You can go to the Bluetooth conference.
28:16 Speaker 02 Can you still?
28:16 Nilay Patel? Yeah, the SIG.
28:18 Speaker 02 Do you remember? The SIG still around?
28:21 David Pierce? Do you remember when everybody was obsessed with the like retail Bluetooth where you would walk into a store and it was just like, it would like Bluetooth all the coupons on the
28:28 Nilay Patel? Yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah. They still do that, by the way, just to track you. That is super happening. Every time you walk through the door of a store in the mall, it's like, we found you again.
28:37 Speaker 02 Yeah.
28:38 Nilay Patel? And then people wonder why it sounds, seems like everyone's listening to them. No, it's just because you existed with your phone and Bluetooth. Which again, the core benefits of Bluetooth, pretty mild, because Apple had to invent their own special Bluetooth to make AirPods work.
28:52 Speaker 02 Okay, I have a lot of feelings about what he's saying.
28:54 Nilay Patel? Do you see what I'm saying? AI is on the exact same trajectory as Bluetooth, only 10,000 times more expensive.
29:01 Speaker 02 Okay.
29:01 David Pierce? Okay.
29:02 Nilay Patel? There's not one product that is bigger than ChatGPT that you can make with AI today.
29:07 Speaker 02 Okay, I'm not with you and I'm not with you.
29:09 David Pierce? Okay, then where are you?
29:10 Nilay Patel? I'd like that you just keep announcing.
29:12 David Pierce? Yeah. Where are you then?
29:13 Speaker 02 My job here. No and no.
29:16 Nilay Patel? But I was just a rebuttal. It's not a prediction.
29:18 Speaker 02 You did your prediction now.
29:20 David Pierce? Well, but if yours is true, mine can't be.
29:22 Nilay Patel? Okay.
29:22 David Pierce? Right? Because if, if, if we get to
29:24 Speaker 02 That is your spice. You chose your spicy. That's what you did.
29:26 David Pierce? No, that's not your spicy. That's a reject spicy that he's rebutting.
29:29 Speaker 02 Are getting two spices?
29:31 Nilay Patel? No, no, that's not a prediction. No point. If AI is a bubble, I get no points, which is, I'm giving that up now in order to rebut David, who says the humane bit is going to be good.
29:40 Speaker 02 What kind of restaurant is this? You got so
29:43 David Pierce? Neela's just sneaking dishes in here.
29:45 Speaker 02 This is my new restaurant called Menar.
29:46 Nilay Patel? No, he's saying, he made his prediction there would be a good AI gadget. And I'm saying that requires Bluetooth to be good.
29:53 Speaker 02 Now you're gonna get too spicy.
29:56 Nilay Patel? I'm just explaining why I'm not signing up. Yeah.
29:59 Speaker 02 Okay, I don't, I don't think we're gonna get a great AI gadget that everyone buys.
30:03 David Pierce? Okay.
30:04 Speaker 02 I'm gonna, can I do my medium now?
30:06 David Pierce? Sure, please. So you're both out on mine.
30:10 Nilay Patel? Mm-hmm.
30:10 Speaker 02 I would like to respond to you, just pick that as your spicy, because then we can come back to it.
30:14 Nilay Patel? Okay, fine, I'll add that to my spicy.
30:16 Speaker 02 Okay.
30:16 Nilay Patel? Pre-spicy, an appetizer.
30:18 Speaker 02 At Chili's too.
30:22 Speaker 02 Okay. My medium was that Meta releases another pair of the smart, the Ray-Ban smart glasses. But it has a display in it, it's like a heads-up display, there's been rumors of this. And I guess the like, more spicy version of this is that Meta continues to outpace Apple in the race for smart glasses.
30:45 David Pierce? Oh, I'm extremely in on that one. I'm like, every day I become more radicalized that Meta did this right and Apple did this wrong. Like, the, the story of 2024.
30:55 Speaker 02 I am writing a column about that right now, and I believe that. I'm, I love the Ray-Bans, I think the path they are taking is better than the path Apple has been taking.
31:04 Nilay Patel? Okay, I agree with Meta continues to outpace Apple.
31:07 Speaker 02 Yay, you agree with me on something.
31:09 Nilay Patel? I don't think the Ray-Bans are any good. I sent mine back.
31:12 Speaker 02 You probably don't know how to use them.
31:13 David Pierce? You have a big head.
31:14 Speaker 02 Yeah, you don't know how to use them.
31:15 David Pierce? That's not, that's not Ben's fault.
31:16 Nilay Patel? Different ideas, you can't agree with him.
31:21 David Pierce? What she said, big head.
31:23 Speaker 02 You have a big head and you don't know how to use them.
31:25 Nilay Patel? You're dumb, there's big head, tiny brain, I get it, I understand what you're saying.
31:29 Speaker 02 Yes.
31:30 Nilay Patel? Uh, look, all of those things might be true, but I use them, and this is some Apple stuff, right? Where they won't let the photos automatically go to your phone if you have iOS. They will let you on Android. I think the cameras are just fine, the AI stuff is like extremely medium.
31:46 Speaker 02 I could, I could take the rest of this podcast to show you videos of all of, like, the great moments I had with my kids and the Ray-Ban.
31:53 Nilay Patel? While you're wearing sunglasses.
31:55 Speaker 02 Yeah. Do you not wear sunglasses outside?
31:58 Nilay Patel? So you're only outside?
32:00 Speaker 02 So you have a, you have a-
32:00 Nilay Patel? Inherently limiting-
32:01 Speaker 02 You have a big head, but perfect eyes that are not bothered by the sun.
32:05 Nilay Patel? Look, I listened to that Corey Hart song a lot when I was a teenager. And I stopped wearing sunglasses indoors and at night.
32:13 Speaker 02 I spend a lot of time outdoors.
32:15 Nilay Patel? Yeah, I'm like-
32:16 Speaker 02 I go running, tubing, skiing. I'm very active.
32:21 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
32:21 David Pierce? Yeah.
32:22 Speaker 02 Very active person.
32:23 David Pierce? I don't do any of those things.
32:24 Speaker 02 Um.
32:25 David Pierce? That's why transitions are great. The real legacy of the Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses is making transition lenses.
32:29 Nilay Patel? No, they did that entire-
32:30 Speaker 02 Yeah, those transition lenses are not-
32:31 Nilay Patel? Was that in the-
32:32 Speaker 02 Those are terrible.
32:32 Nilay Patel? Was that in the journal, they did the story about how transitions, the transition lens company was gonna take off because of Meta Ray-Ban? Someone tried to do a story-
32:40 David Pierce? Oh, really?
32:41 Nilay Patel? I thought it was the journal. Someone did a story about how transitions are in now.
32:44 Speaker 02 No, they're terrible.
32:45 Nilay Patel? Because of the Ray-Bans. And I got the clear ones with the transitions. And I was like, these are still pretty bad.
32:49 Speaker 02 They're really bad.
32:50 Nilay Patel? And then I boxed the things up and sent them.
32:52 David Pierce? They definitely still do the thing where you go inside and you still have sunglasses for 10 minutes.
32:56 Speaker 02 There was a kid in my high school that had transition lenses and you know that is not-
33:00 Nilay Patel? We're like, big head, tiny brain.
33:01 Speaker 02 And hopefully he's not a Verge cast listener. Um, and every time I see them on the Ray-Bans, I think of him and I'm like, I look like this kid.
33:09 David Pierce? And he was cool and handsome and is now in the NFL, right?
33:11 Speaker 02 Yeah, I'm hoping he doesn't listen to the-
33:12 Nilay Patel? I just want to be clear, I agree-
33:14 David Pierce? That was Travis Kelsey.
33:15 Nilay Patel? With the prediction. It could have been you. You could have been the one he broke up for.
33:23 Nilay Patel? I agree with the prediction that Meta remains ahead in this category. Only because I think Apple will not launch something that is as good as the Ray-Bans. By which I mean, they will have to make something better because the Ray-Bans are just medium.
33:36 Speaker 02 And Apple is a camera company, as Snap wants to say they are, but yes, I agree. I, I think that's true. I think Apple's likely working on this and they haven't gotten to the best place.
33:47 Nilay Patel? It was the Wall Street Journal, the headline, "These glasses were once a style joke and now they're for cool guys." It's like, no, you're just a bunch of old guys.
33:56 Speaker 02 Oh, no, that was in 2024?
33:57 Nilay Patel? Yes.
33:59 Speaker 02 Oh, no, that's wrong.
34:00 Nilay Patel? Right when the, right when the Meta came out.
34:03 Speaker 02 That's wrong.
34:04 Nilay Patel? "Thanks to significant technological upgrades, transition lenses are supposedly suave. Are these once dorky two-in-ones now the ultimate glasses?"
34:14 Speaker 02 No. Okay.
34:15 Nilay Patel? Did a transition lens write this?
34:21 Nilay Patel? It's a very good. It's a very good.
34:25 Nilay Patel? Vogue has a story from a Vogue has a story called Transition Lenses for now my entire personality.
34:33 Nilay Patel? Someone is like a big transition is on the case.
34:36 Speaker 02 The transition lens, I, I don't know how like there's, and I'm still trying to do some reporting on this. If you work at Meta and want to get in touch, they're working on the heads up display in a pair of Ray-Bans. I think they'll probably be sunglasses, but maybe that, well, they'll probably have to use transition lenses.
34:57 David Pierce? The display thing is going to be a big swing too, because if that sucks, it actually, it not only doesn't add more appeal, it actually kills a bunch of appeal. Because the thing that's nice about the ones now is they are mostly just sunglasses.
35:07 Speaker 02 Totally. I think they, they have to do something in between what they've been showing with Orion and what they're, they've been doing with the smart glasses. And that is very basic information in your line of eye. And so
35:21 David Pierce? Just show me a text message.
35:22 Speaker 02 Right.
35:22 David Pierce? That's it.
35:23 Speaker 02 And that's where I think there's going to be AI potential. I don't think that's a killer. I don't think people buy them because they're, they have AI.
35:30 David Pierce? Okay.
35:30 Speaker 02 So I'm with you a little bit on the like, these gadgets are going to get better. And I've said repeatedly, the Meta glasses are the best AI gadget you can get because they're not only about AI.
35:40 David Pierce? So, okay, wait, for you, we're going to move on from this, but the, the Ray-Bans, it feels like it's, the three things are camera, mic slash speaker.
35:49 Speaker 02 Yep.
35:50 David Pierce? AI.
35:50 Speaker 02 AI.
35:50 David Pierce? Rank those three things for you personally.
35:52 Speaker 02 Camera.
35:55 Speaker 02 AI, audio.
35:57 David Pierce? Interesting. So for me, it's audio first by a mile.
35:59 Speaker 02 Oh.
36:00 David Pierce? And then camera and then AI.
36:01 Speaker 02 Yeah.
36:02 David Pierce? Like, I love them as like a pair of headphones or for like making calls and stuff like, and, but I've found other people that are like, why would I just want to shout into the air when I have, yeah, I can just wear AirPods. It'll be fine. Neil, I sent his back. So you don't get, you don't.
36:16 Nilay Patel? You don't think that this is going to run into the I use it to play music and set timers problem?
36:20 Speaker 02 No, I think it might.
36:22 David Pierce? But there are, there are worse things.
36:27 Nilay Patel? Like, smart speakers, we're supposed to do all these things, and it's music and timers. And you're like, oh, and then this category kind of just died.
36:35 David Pierce? Yeah, and now it's on my face. Yeah.
36:37 Speaker 02 Yeah.
36:38 Nilay Patel? Like, I don't know if there's a worse thing than the, we spend a lot of money to set timers problem.
36:43 David Pierce? Fair. And, I mean, Amazon has been trying to find places to put Alexa on your body for a long time and has not found it.
36:49 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
36:50 David Pierce? So, all right, we're, we're all in on the specific one of Meta is going to continue to outpace Apple on glasses.
36:55 Nilay Patel? But only because Apple's not going to launch anything. That's my caveat.
36:58 David Pierce? There aren't, no, this is 2025. So the other bet that you're making inherently in this is that Apple isn't going to launch another thing in 2025.
37:05 Nilay Patel? A face thing. I think Apple has, they've done face computers. Their face, they're, they're like, okay, we put one computer on your face, everyone breathe, let's figure out what our next face computer is going to be. And then we're going to take it from there.
37:19 Speaker 02 Maybe they drop the price?
37:21 Nilay Patel? Of the vision program.
37:22 Speaker 02 Yeah.
37:22 Nilay Patel? Yeah, and I'm saying, I don't think they're going to launch another face computer.
37:25 Speaker 02 No, I don't think so.
37:26 Nilay Patel? Next year.
37:26 David Pierce? Okay.
37:26 Nilay Patel? And so, by definitionally, Meta will stay it.
37:29 David Pierce? Yeah. All right. I'm into it. All right. We're going to take one more break, and then we're going to do spicy takes. We'll be right back.
37:34 Speaker 04 Flowing ad budget on metrics that look great till the CFO sees them, that's bull spend, and marketers are calling it out, in. Dashboard, confessions.
37:44 Speaker 05 I remember telling my boss, it'll be good for the brand, when leads were slow. Yeah, it, it wasn't.
37:51 Speaker 04 Cut the bull spend. LinkedIn lets you target by company, job title, and more. Advertise on LinkedIn. Spend $250 on your first campaign and get a $250 credit. Go to LinkedIn.com/campaign. Terms and conditions apply.
38:07 David Pierce? All right, we're back. Spicy takes. These are the ones, again, there should be a chance that this comes true, but if it does come true, you're not going to shut up about it.
38:17 Nilay Patel? Yep.
38:18 Speaker 02 Okay.
38:19 David Pierce? Good? Did we feel good? All right. Uh, I guess I get to go first this time. My spicy take for 2025 is, uh, that everyone is going to give up on Matter and bail on the smart home. And we're just gonna get to the end of the year. And we're gonna have like individual smart gadgets and that'll be fine. But this idea of like the, the big, beautiful interconnected smart home is going to cease to be interesting to almost everybody.
38:45 Nilay Patel? Okay, Joanna, do you want to respond to this as someone who just fixed your garage after weeks of effort?
38:50 David Pierce? Oh yeah, we should talk about this, actually. Can we just, let's just do, let's just do a one minute Joanna interlude on the garage. Because the, the people do want to know.
38:58 Speaker 02 Okay, can we get a music?
38:59 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
38:59 Speaker 02 Get a music track under here?
39:00 Nilay Patel? Just assume there's music playing now.
39:01 Speaker 02 Okay. It's happy, like, it needs to be a happy track, like a little bit like whimsical.
39:06 David Pierce? Like the Six Flags theme song.
39:08 Nilay Patel? I will pick the music at a later time. You tell the story.
39:11 Speaker 02 I'm producing, I'm producing, I'm producing right now. It happened. My garage now opens, I can't say it. Because if I do, my, my phone will open my garage at home. But when I say, hey, blank, open the garage, it happens. This is after many weeks of texts to Neelai, who responded three minutes exactly after, because he scheduled them.
39:43 Nilay Patel? Yep.
39:44 Speaker 02 This is after many weeks of people responding on threads, thank you all your, all, to all your listeners.
39:51 David Pierce? We got a lot of feedback on the garage door.
39:54 Speaker 02 Yes, and I would like to apologize.
39:55 David Pierce? Which ranged from, you idiot, this is simple, to this is the hardest problem in the history of the universe.
39:59 Nilay Patel? To outright conspiracy theories about Kred Fegarini's garage.
40:02 David Pierce? Yes.
40:03 Speaker 02 Well, I believe those now. I, I've come to, I, I understand this landscape better than anybody.
40:09 Nilay Patel? Yes.
40:09 Speaker 02 Maybe not as well as you. And it is a very hard problem to solve. So those people that call me an idiot, you are actually an idiot. Um, but I just thank you to the listeners. I did it.
40:21 Nilay Patel? What'd you have to do?
40:22 Speaker 02 Oh, we can't, it's too, it's longer than a minute.
40:24 Nilay Patel? Just explain the little adapter that they sent.
40:25 Speaker 02 Okay. I got the Miro's. Miro's? What? How do you pronounce it?
40:30 Nilay Patel? I think I always say Miro's.
40:31 Speaker 02 Miro's. Okay. I got the Miro's adapter. I get up on a ladder. I sent Eli a picture. I was wearing my Meta Ray-Bans for both music and for just taking photos and video of it.
40:41 Nilay Patel? Therapy.
40:42 Speaker 02 Therapy. I was using the Calm app. Then, we should get them as a sponsor.
40:46 Nilay Patel? It's a good idea. Yeah.
40:48 Speaker 02 I get up there. I get everything all set. Plug it into the sensor, put the sensor on the door. This is a whole complicated kind of wiring, not that. And it doesn't work. And it turns out, because my LiftMaster is a newer LiftMaster from 2018, it is using some proprietary protocol to talk to the door opener on the wall, and it will not work. So.
41:10 Nilay Patel? Dudes, they have DRM'd the garage door button, and they have labeled it a security feature.
41:17 Speaker 02 And.
41:18 Nilay Patel? It's very good.
41:19 Speaker 02 I.
41:20 Nilay Patel? They've DRM'd the hardwired garage door button.
41:23 Speaker 02 I guess there was a way. I could have known this earlier, but I didn't like go through all the support forums to know, because my learn button on my LiftMaster is yellow. And it turns out, if you have the yellow button, you cannot use this.
41:37 Nilay Patel? Then you have a DRM.
41:38 Speaker 02 But Miro's, the geniuses at Miro's, who I've not gotten in touch with, but you are great people. Great people. They made a little adapter, which is really just the opener, like the opener you would put in your like car. It's a hacked opener that connects to the Miro's. And so I didn't, I get it. They sent it to me in the mail in one week. Again, thank you to the people at Miro's. Please sponsor this podcast. I just love them.
42:08 Nilay Patel? Apparently.
42:10 Nilay Patel? They don't have enough money. They're making one hacked garage door opener.
42:15 Speaker 02 One a day. For me. Anyway, they send this to me. I set it up, and it works perfectly now.
42:21 Nilay Patel? I just, can I, can I explain what's happening? I'd sent Joanna like a paragraph, excited paragraph of nerd speak. So they're like, okay, we can't
42:28 Speaker 02 Yeah.
42:29 Nilay Patel? Push the hardwired button because it's DRM.
42:30 Speaker 02 Yes.
42:31 Nilay Patel? But we can take a regular garage door opener that is DRM compatible with this. And we'll just put a wire in the actual button of that garage door opener.
42:41 Speaker 02 Oh, wow.
42:42 Nilay Patel? So that when you tell Siri to open the thing.
42:45 Speaker 02 Yes.
42:45 Nilay Patel? Our thing will push the button on the garage door opener. So there's just a wire coming out of a garage door opener.
42:51 Speaker 02 They should.
42:51 Nilay Patel? Because that is crazy. Can you imagine Craig Federighi knowing any of this information? When he's like, the future of AI is my smart home.
43:01 David Pierce? This is validating my entire prediction.
43:03 Speaker 02 I told you I wouldn't do this and I did not want to go down this route. I just wanted to thank everyone and tell them about my success.
43:08 Nilay Patel? She's very proud of herself.
43:09 David Pierce? I'm psyched for you.
43:10 Speaker 02 I'm very proud of myself. I now have.
43:11 Nilay Patel? Can you explain the one other bug that you had to explain to me?
43:14 David Pierce? Oh, God.
43:15 Nilay Patel? Which is perfect. It didn't work right away and why?
43:18 Speaker 02 Well, that was with, oh, no, that was with that.
43:22 Nilay Patel? It's very good.
43:22 Speaker 02 Okay, so I go away. Well, I don't even know why I was, I was in LA and I set everything up and I thought it's working perfectly. But yet the garage door keeps opening and closing randomly. And my wife is texting me saying, who is opening and closing the garage door? And I'm like, not me. It should be working. It turns out when I pressed the learn button, it started picking up some signal from someone around the neighborhood. So whenever they opened their garage, it opened my garage, which almost led to divorce. So I had to get a garage guy, who then came to the house, helped me fix it.
43:59 Nilay Patel? Perfect.
44:01 Speaker 02 And now it all works perfect.
44:02 David Pierce? All because you can't be bothered to push the button when you pull into the driveway.
44:05 Speaker 02 But you know what? The amount, like, this is, we need some music. The amount of happiness and true pride I feel now when I pull out of my garage and say, hey, Siri, open the garage door, is. I may have never felt it before.
44:23 David Pierce? And then 15 minutes later, it just starts raining, like closing and opening on its own.
44:27 Speaker 02 That hasn't happened in at least two weeks.
44:30 David Pierce? I'm thrilled for you. We really, the smart home is getting to the point of humanoid robots to stand in your garage and push buttons.
44:37 Nilay Patel? That's, by the way, this is Doorbot.
44:39 Speaker 02 Yes.
44:40 Nilay Patel? You could have just put a Doorbot on the actual garage door button.
44:43 Speaker 02 But just back to what you're saying, this is why I don't think, I mean.
44:47 Nilay Patel? Switchbot, not Doorbot.
44:48 Speaker 02 I don't think matter disappears. I think we actually see these tech companies double down on it. I think they're all gonna start talking about how AI is gonna be great for the smart home and we're gonna hear it with that Alexa announcement. It's just like, oh, these things, and this is the dream, and our robots, and the, and the house is connected, and none of it is actually really material to real people because they have old shit, and they have different standards, and there's DRM in the freaking button on the wall, and it doesn't work. And I think we're gonna hear from Apple this year because they're apparently working on this Home tablet, and I think they're gonna push matter, and they're gonna say, right.
45:24 Nilay Patel? They have to push it. They have no choice but to push matter.
45:26 Speaker 02 Right. And no, no, not everyone has matter things.
45:28 Nilay Patel? They will not get an ecosystem of these devices.
45:30 Speaker 02 And a lot of these devices don't even have matter.
45:32 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
45:33 Speaker 02 Anyway.
45:34 Nilay Patel? You just think they're gonna give up? You think?
45:36 David Pierce? I don't know that they're gonna, I just think everyone is going to stop caring in, in every, like.
45:40 Speaker 02 I think they did stop caring.
45:42 David Pierce? Maybe. Uh, but I, like, even the companies themselves who have been making these long elaborate bets that eventually the smart home is going to become a thing that is, like, mainstream useful, I think everybody's just gonna start walking away from that next year. It's because it's just not gonna happen.
45:56 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
45:57 Speaker 02 I mean, when you get a new house.
45:58 David Pierce? Light switches kick ass. It's probably fine. We've probably solved light switches. I don't know that we need to worry about them anymore.
46:04 Nilay Patel? No, enough of the light switches in our house are, are smart and do things.
46:08 Speaker 02 Yeah.
46:09 Nilay Patel? Just all on their own, that actually, once you get used to it, you're like, oh, this rules.
46:14 Speaker 02 Yeah.
46:15 Nilay Patel? Right? Like, there's one level up. We're like, oh, this is great.
46:19 David Pierce? My Rube Goldberg machine works really well. It's like a perfectly viable.
46:22 Nilay Patel? But it's not a Rube Goldberg machine. It's, they're just, I just bought some Lutron Casadas and put them in the wall, and now when the sun sets, our house lights.
46:30 Speaker 02 Will they sponsor this podcast?
46:32 Nilay Patel? I don't know. Well, they, they have so much money that they own a custom slice of RF spectrum, which is why their products work the best. It's a real thing. Uh, but I don't know if they want to spend the money.
46:41 Speaker 02 You're like, those don't even go on sale on Black Frac. They just don't go on sale.
46:45 Nilay Patel? Yeah, because they have their own RF spectrum and they have the best product.
46:48 David Pierce? What are you gonna do?
46:50 Nilay Patel? This is a real thing. They bought their own slice of RF spectrum that Brendan Carr, Trump's new commissioner in the FCC is going to turn over to Elon Musk.
46:56 Speaker 02 When you interview him, I want you to ask about Lutron Casadas.
46:58 Nilay Patel? Brendan, if you're listening, and I know you are, come on the, come on the show.
47:03 David Pierce? Yeah.
47:03 Nilay Patel? I'll ask you about Lutron Casadas.
47:05 David Pierce? We'd love to have you.
47:05 Nilay Patel? Tell me how your garage door works.
47:07 Speaker 02 Do you own a house?
47:08 David Pierce? I do.
47:08 Speaker 02 You own a house?
47:09 David Pierce? Yeah.
47:10 Speaker 02 Okay, I was gonna say, like, if this is the year 2025 that David buys a house.
47:14 Nilay Patel? Actually, a good, a good prediction here, like an ancillary prediction to yours, is no one will come up with a smart home idea that compels you, David Pierce, owner of the most garbage TV in America, to do any smart home thing.
47:28 David Pierce? Yeah, I love that.
47:29 Nilay Patel? Right? That's the, because like, I have a whole smart home. It's just doing stuff all the time.
47:34 Speaker 02 And I'm slowly trying to be Neelai. Like, he's my, he's my mentor of the smart home.
47:39 David Pierce? Neelai has never once described a use case and an amount of work to get to that use case that has ever made sense to me.
47:46 Speaker 02 I just described the garage to you, and it is perfect.
47:49 Nilay Patel? It's super not good enough.
47:52 Speaker 02 It is so good. What do you mean? I just sat next to you.
47:56 David Pierce? My wife texted me and said, "Why is the garage door opening and closing by itself?"
48:03 Speaker 02 But then our wives can talk to each other.
48:04 David Pierce? Not a workable solution to my house.
48:06 Speaker 02 They can be friends.
48:06 Nilay Patel? You don't, you don't want to build a relationship on that. That's not the foundation of a relationship that's good for anyone's marriage.
48:12 David Pierce? It's bad times all the way around. All right, so you're, you're both out on mine. This is great. Joanna.
48:18 Speaker 02 I do, I mean, I do believe it's gonna be a big topic next year, so that's...
48:24 David Pierce? I hope so.
48:24 Nilay Patel? I mean, to be clear, David's prediction is everyone walks away for matter. That's your specific prediction. I'm out on that.
48:30 Speaker 02 Yeah, I don't think that.
48:31 Nilay Patel? They're all in on it.
48:31 Speaker 02 Yeah, they can't. They have nothing else to do. I wish. I mean, I don't wish. I don't, anyway. Okay, my spicy one, the Mac gets a touchscreen.
48:41 Nilay Patel? No, we've done this like every year. Every time we've done predictions together, someone has done this.
48:45 Speaker 02 I know. And we'll, I think, I was trying to find the Vergecast transcripts of the time I predicted, and I can't find it, but I believe I said by the end of 2024.
48:54 Nilay Patel? I think the last time we did this, we, we set timelines and we were all wrong.
48:57 Speaker 02 We were. Dieter was on the, on the podcast.
48:59 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
49:00 Speaker 02 And, but I, I, I think we are coming towards that time. One day we will get there, and I, I think.
49:08 David Pierce? Is it just a Mac as you currently imagine it? But it's a touchscreen. Or does it change more meaningfully than that?
49:16 Speaker 02 They'll have to do something.
49:18 David Pierce? What do they do?
49:21 Speaker 02 I don't know.
49:21 David Pierce? Does it run iPad apps?
49:24 Speaker 02 It already runs iPad.
49:25 David Pierce? Like, like, does it just get the iPad App Store natively?
49:29 Speaker 02 Hmm, no, I think they just keep it that way.
49:31 David Pierce? Okay.
49:33 David Pierce? I'm just looking at these touch targets being like, eh, I don't really want to poke my menu bar.
49:38 Nilay Patel? Yeah, I don't think they do it until I know why they're doing it.
49:40 Speaker 02 I want to scroll.
49:41 Nilay Patel? I don't know that they even know why they make the iPad.
49:44 Speaker 02 Right.
49:45 Nilay Patel? Do you like the iPad as an application environment? They're not like, here's why. They're just like, well, that keeps happening. And I don't think they're going to add cost and complexity to the Mac unless they have like a great reason to do it. And they seem to be selling enough Macs. I'm walking this all the way back. Cause I thought, the last time we did this, I thought that they had reached a point with the Mac and the iPad where bringing them closer together was the only choice.
50:11 David Pierce? Yep.
50:11 Nilay Patel? And they have not only resisted that, they've pulled them further apart. To the point where everyone's just like, turn this iPad into a Mac.
50:18 David Pierce? I think Apple silicon changed that. Like, I think if, if Apple hadn't solved like laptop processing, it would have been different and the Macs would have started to look more like the iPads and vice versa. But now like the, the Mac lineup is easily the best it's ever been.
50:37 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
50:38 David Pierce? And is so compelling to so many people like. Yeah, I tend to agree. I, I years ago would have thought that eventually the MacBook and the iPad in particular would eventually be the same product. I don't think that anymore.
50:50 Nilay Patel? I, I, spicy follow up. Whatever that is. A dip. A condiment. Hot sauce. If
51:01 Nilay Patel? if you could turn your Mac into an iPad. And gain touchscreen support.
51:06 Speaker 02 Yeah.
51:06 Nilay Patel? Or you could turn your iPad into a Mac and lose touchscreen support. Which one would you, which one would you pick?
51:12 Speaker 02 I can take my Mac. Well, it's the first option.
51:15 Nilay Patel? So you have your Mac sitting right here.
51:16 Speaker 02 And I can take it.
51:17 Nilay Patel? And I can push a button and be like, now this is an iPad and you get a touchscreen.
51:19 Speaker 02 And I can take the screen off?
51:21 Nilay Patel? No, whatever. It's, it's just that. They can run iPad apps, but it has a touchscreen.
51:24 Speaker 02 Yeah.
51:24 Nilay Patel? It's an iPad. And the other one is you got an iPad in a keyboard case and you're like, boom, hit a button. It runs macOS, but the touchscreen stops working.
51:32 David Pierce? It's that.
51:33 Speaker 02 I guess that.
51:33 Nilay Patel? See what I'm saying?
51:34 David Pierce? I want a dockable iPad much more than a touch Mac.
51:37 Speaker 02 Yeah.
51:38 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
51:39 David Pierce? And there's a bunch of stuff you have to do, like it would have to essentially like run the two operating systems side by side.
51:45 Nilay Patel? No, I'm saying, I'm, I'm, I'm making this hardcore.
51:48 David Pierce? Okay.
51:49 Nilay Patel? You push the button, this is now runs iPadOS.
51:52 David Pierce? Yeah. With a touchscreen.
51:53 Nilay Patel? With a touchscreen.
51:54 Speaker 02 But it doesn't.
51:54 Nilay Patel? It's a Mac.
51:55 Speaker 02 But then when you run macOS, it disables the touchscreen.
51:58 Nilay Patel? No, it doesn't run macOS. I'm saying this just becomes an iPad. Or you could take your iPad and you can run macOS and it disables the touchscreen.
52:07 David Pierce? So it's definitely an iPad with macOS.
52:09 Nilay Patel? See what I'm saying?
52:09 David Pierce? No question.
52:10 Speaker 02 Same.
52:11 Nilay Patel? This is just the end of the argument, I think, for a long time, because they don't know why any, they don't know why any of these products have touchscreens.
52:17 David Pierce? Right.
52:19 Nilay Patel? Except for the iPhone. I, I know why the iPhone has a touchscreen. They have not yet solved the problem of why the iPad has.
52:23 Speaker 02 So maybe I'm changing mine to that the iPad can run macOS.
52:29 Nilay Patel? Yeah, that's the only rational answer.
52:30 Speaker 02 But that to me seems to be the same thing. Mac gets a touchscreen, still macOS getting a touchscreen.
52:35 David Pierce? I'll give, I'll give you both as one prediction.
52:37 Speaker 02 Okay.
52:37 David Pierce? That, that one of those two things will happen, that the, the, the Mac. I mean, it's really, it's like the Venn diagram of the Mac and the iPad smashed into each other.
52:45 Nilay Patel? I think they have figured out they can sell a lot of both.
52:47 Speaker 02 Yes.
52:47 Nilay Patel? They don't have to solve this problem and there's no pressure on them to solve the problem. Until there's some sort of Windows tablet or Android tablet that provides an ounce of competition to the iPad. And I know, like, I know there are Windows tablets and people like them and the Surface exists and that's a whole thing. They're not competition to the iPad. They're a competition to the MacBook.
53:05 Speaker 02 To the Mac, yeah.
53:06 Nilay Patel? Until there's one sliver of competition for the things that people use iPads for, they are just going to stay exactly the way they are.
53:14 David Pierce? I didn't agree.
53:15 Speaker 02 Yeah. I was, my other spicy one-
53:17 David Pierce? You can't talk yourself out of your own prediction.
53:18 Speaker 02 No, no, my other, no, I really want that to happen. That's why it's spicy and that's why it's there. But my other spicy was gonna be that Tim Cook steps down and then they, the Mac gets the touchscreen.
53:28 Nilay Patel? Ooh, Tim Cook can't step down if Donald Trump is president.
53:30 Speaker 02 I know. It's like, it's unrealistic.
53:31 Nilay Patel? He's gotta call him every day and be like, I need you to not do these tariffs.
53:34 Speaker 02 No, I think they just bought him.
53:35 Nilay Patel? Do you understand what I'm saying, Donald? That this time you cannot do tariffs. You like your iPhone, right? I can turn that off. No tariffs. And he's just gotta do that every single day.
53:44 Speaker 02 Yeah, I think he has to stay.
53:45 David Pierce? Neelai, what is your spiciest prediction?
53:49 Nilay Patel? Uh, this is wild.
53:49 David Pierce? Full spice.
53:50 Nilay Patel? This is wild.
53:51 David Pierce? Hit me with it.
53:52 Nilay Patel? Google breaks itself up.
53:57 Speaker 02 Okay.
53:57 Nilay Patel? They're just like, you know what? This is not worth it anymore. We're just gonna, we're gonna, we're gonna spin off our own companies.
54:04 David Pierce? Okay.
54:05 Nilay Patel? This is the opposite of merger mania, which is a thing big companies do to create shareholder value-
54:11 David Pierce? Sure.
54:12 Nilay Patel? -when they're out of ideas. I think Google is just gonna look at the marketplace and say that we're under a lot of regulatory pressure. And you know what? If we just spun off YouTube, just put it over there, signed a big lucrative AI training data deal for Google AI, and let this thing go be cable, the future of cable television, and compete with TikTok and whatever, and well, that'll go public and the stock will go up and Google's stock will go up and everyone's stock will go up. And that's all anybody cares about. You can make the argument today, absent the antitrust pressure. And you get to take YouTube away from the antitrust pressure-
54:50 David Pierce? Right.
54:50 Nilay Patel? -and the regulatory pressure, because now it's just YouTube.
54:52 David Pierce? Does that solve-
54:53 Speaker 02 Yeah.
54:53 David Pierce? -Google's antitrust problems, though?
54:55 Nilay Patel? I have no idea. This is my spicy take.
54:57 David Pierce? Okay.
54:57 Speaker 02 But like, does that solve the scrutiny of Chrome and the ad-
55:00 Nilay Patel? Right. So all that's noise. Right? It doesn't solve those problems. It just takes YouTube away from them.
55:08 David Pierce? And let's Google say we've made ourselves smaller and less powerful because now the second most powerful search engine on the internet doesn't belong to us anymore. It's over here, it's YouTube.
55:17 Nilay Patel? And we can, you know, the fact that we all work together and we're friends and sometimes we call each other on the phone and who knows what messaging app we're using to communicate? Because we not only delete all of our records, we have too many messaging apps for idiots to see. There's, that's my spiciest take is Google solves this problem the way that big conglomerates solve this problem.
55:34 David Pierce? What if Google does all of its like secret messaging just on ALO? Because they know no one is paying attention. Like no lawyer would ever think to like subpoena the ALO messages. So that's just where Google is now.
55:48 Nilay Patel? They're just like, one of their, this is why they've had so many.
55:50 David Pierce? Right.
55:51 Speaker 02 Was ALO before chat or meet?
55:54 Nilay Patel? No, it was after.
55:55 David Pierce? ALO was with Duo. They launched ALO and Duo together. And ALO was the first one that was like, we're gonna put AI inside of your chats. So when you say, do you want to go to the movies? It's like, oh, would you like to buy movie tickets? And that was a super good idea that everyone liked. And it went really well for Google. That was 10 years ago. Yeah.
56:16 Nilay Patel? The number of Dieter Bone, we have sorted out Google's messaging strategy stories that we've written. Here it is. Here's the plan by Dieter Bone. None of them came to pass. That's my spiciest take.
56:29 David Pierce? That's pretty good. I'm out on that one.
56:31 Nilay Patel? Yeah, no one should set up for this take.
56:34 David Pierce? I think, I think if you had said.
56:36 Nilay Patel? But to your point, if I'm right, no, everyone will, you'll never hear the end of this.
56:41 David Pierce? Yeah, they have to make you the CEO of YouTube. If you're right now officially. They have to do it.
56:47 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
56:49 David Pierce? I think, I think if you had said, Google breaks up in 2025, I might have thought long and hard about signing on. But Google does it of its own volition.
56:57 Nilay Patel? That's why it's.
56:58 David Pierce? I love it.
56:58 Nilay Patel? Someone breaks up Google, yeah, fine. It's, we're headed that way. Google itself is like, you know what? This is really hard. It's just YouTube, you go have fun. Create some shareholder value.
57:11 David Pierce? For the good of the people.
57:12 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
57:13 David Pierce? All right. This is great stuff. All right, let me review, then we're gonna get out of here. Joanna's predictions. Her mild prediction is that a year from now, we're all still gonna be posting to a million social accounts. I'm in on that and Eli's out. Your medium take is that Meta is going to continue to outpace Apple on glasses. Neil and I are both in. And your spicy one is that the touchscreen Mac and the iPad with macOS, some smashing together thing is gonna happen there. Neil and I are both out. I hope to, the one I most hope I'm wrong about is that one, because I want that to happen so bad.
57:46 Speaker 02 If that happens and we're at an event together, I will stand up and cheer.
57:51 David Pierce? I deservedly so. That will be a good victory lap. Like, imagine if Apple had made a television, how insufferable Gene Munster would have been. Like, that's what I want for you.
58:00 Speaker 02 I have never clapped at an Apple event. I believe the only, sorry, I would take that back. I believe I might have clapped when they announced multiple timers. And I've never, ever clapped at an Apple event other than that, but I will clap. I will.
58:13 David Pierce? But then you have to say out loud, "To be clear, I'm clapping for myself."
58:16 Speaker 02 Yes.
58:18 Speaker 02 Journalism.
58:21 David Pierce? I love it. All right. Neil's predictions. The mild prediction, Alexa is going to be fine.
58:26 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
58:27 David Pierce? I even put the ellipsis in here. It's gonna be fine.
58:29 Nilay Patel? Fine.
58:30 Speaker 02 It's fine.
58:30 David Pierce? I'm out and Joanna's out.
58:32 Nilay Patel? That's rough.
58:34 Speaker 02 I think it's probably true, but I'm hoping, I'm betting against.
58:36 David Pierce? The medium take is Walmart is gonna buy TikTok. Strangely, Joanna and I are both in on this. I love it. And the spicy take is that Google breaks itself up.
58:47 Speaker 02 We are not in.
58:47 David Pierce? I'm giving you all versions of breakups, even though you specified YouTube. I think.
58:53 Nilay Patel? Oh, any, any.
58:53 David Pierce? Google breaks itself up in any meaningful way is spicy enough that I'm giving you the whole take.
58:57 Nilay Patel? As long as it's by its own volition.
58:58 David Pierce? Correct.
58:59 Nilay Patel? Okay.
58:59 Speaker 02 That's nice.
59:00 David Pierce? And Joanna and I are both out.
59:03 Nilay Patel? But I, that means I will take any little thing.
59:07 Speaker 02 Yep.
59:07 Nilay Patel? Right? Because Google is also Alphabet.
59:10 Speaker 02 That's right. So if Waymo.
59:12 Nilay Patel? Right, if they're, yeah.
59:13 David Pierce? No, no, no. Waymo's not part of Google.
59:15 Speaker 02 It's part of Alphabet. And I, I don't think that's ridiculous.
59:21 Nilay Patel? You have to decide.
59:22 David Pierce? No, I'm still out and I'll still give it to you.
59:25 Nilay Patel? Okay.
59:25 David Pierce? Any alphabet company, but not one of the stupid moonshots that loses billions of dollars. I'll give you Waymo. That's basically the only other one I'm willing to give you.
59:34 Nilay Patel? Fine.
59:35 David Pierce? My predictions are, my mild prediction is that cable TV is going to pretty much totally die. Neel is out, Joanna is in.
59:43 Nilay Patel? I still don't know what that means. I'm in if the most generous reading is like, we stop talking about it.
59:48 David Pierce? If I just, if I just make it, the cable box business is dead and boring, would you be into it?
59:56 Nilay Patel? Yeah, because it's already true. We should all just take the point today.
59:59 David Pierce? It's not true.
1:00:00 Nilay Patel? Alright.
1:00:00 David Pierce? It's boring already, but it's not dead. And I think it got boring faster than anybody expected, and I think it's going to get dead faster than anybody expects.
1:00:10 Nilay Patel? I think our minority investor Comcast requires me to tell you, the Xfinity X1 box is cool.
1:00:19 David Pierce? Also, disclosure, Neel I produced a Netflix show.
1:00:22 Nilay Patel? Something.
1:00:23 David Pierce? Subscribe to The Verge. I don't know.
1:00:25 Nilay Patel? It's pretty, it's pretty good.
1:00:26 David Pierce? Yeah. Alright, do you want to in on this one? This is your last chance.
1:00:29 Nilay Patel? Yeah, I'll take it.
1:00:30 David Pierce? Keep in mind that I'm deciding.
1:00:32 Nilay Patel? Yeah, I know. You're gonna give yourself this point somehow, and it's like, fine.
1:00:35 David Pierce? Alright, Neel is in, Joanna is in.
1:00:38 David Pierce? My medium take is that someone is going to make an AI gadget that actually kicks ass. You're both out.
1:00:44 David Pierce? And my spicy take is that the industry and the world are going to collectively give up on matter, and you're both out.
1:00:50 Nilay Patel? Out, super out.
1:00:51 David Pierce? Love it. Alright.
1:00:52 Nilay Patel? I think a thing that I don't understand is, how many points have we all potentially signed up for?
1:00:56 Speaker 02 I don't understand this game at all.
1:00:57 David Pierce? Who's to say? I got 12 months to figure out the answer to that question. What do you win if you win?
1:01:01 Nilay Patel? I'm saying if Google breaks itself up, I win. Whatever that is. If I call that one right.
1:01:07 David Pierce? But also, should there be more points for spicier takes?
1:01:10 Nilay Patel? Yes.
1:01:10 Speaker 02 But if, yeah, he had so many spicy takes, and then he also had that spice. I think that should be disqualified.
1:01:16 David Pierce? Joanna is so mad at how much you got to talk.
1:01:18 Nilay Patel? I've already.
1:01:20 Speaker 02 The AI means nothing, and AI is a failure. What was your other one?
1:01:23 Nilay Patel? Yeah, Bubble Pops.
1:01:24 Speaker 02 The Bubble Pops? No.
1:01:25 Nilay Patel? That's not on the list.
1:01:26 David Pierce? No, Neel doesn't get to have that one. Yeah.
1:01:28 Speaker 02 Okay, good.
1:01:28 David Pierce? That's just.
1:01:29 Nilay Patel? AI is Bluetooth did not.
1:01:32 Speaker 02 Yeah, Bluetooth.
1:01:33 David Pierce? That's too spicy for this podcast.
1:01:35 Nilay Patel? It's funny because Bluetooth like never had a bubble that popped. Everyone was just kind of like, yeah, it's just not happening.
1:01:41 Speaker 02 I think a lot of people think Bluetooth happened.
1:01:44 Nilay Patel? Do you find one person who thinks Bluetooth happened? Like, in the way that people thought it would happen?
1:01:50 David Pierce? Right. Bluetooth happened in the sense that it's here and you use it.
1:01:53 Nilay Patel? Right. Sometimes it works in your car, and some people have one of those UE boom speakers.
1:02:00 David Pierce? But like-
1:02:01 Nilay Patel? And that's it.
1:02:02 David Pierce? Is there a hundred billion dollar Bluetooth startup out there? Like, probably not.
1:02:07 David Pierce? If that is you, please email me.
1:02:09 Nilay Patel? Like, Bluetooth was at the point where there are like, meaningful Bluetooth security threats.
1:02:14 Speaker 02 Yeah.
1:02:15 Nilay Patel? Remember, there's like, blue snarfing?
1:02:18 Speaker 02 Yeah, I do remember. There was a whole CES where it was really just-
1:02:22 Nilay Patel? Bluetooth stuff.
1:02:23 Speaker 02 Bluetooth stuff. The Happy Fork.
1:02:25 Nilay Patel? Yep.
1:02:25 Speaker 02 Bluetooth.
1:02:26 Nilay Patel? And it just didn't happen.
1:02:27 Speaker 02 Yeah, I mean, but some of it really did happen.
1:02:29 Nilay Patel? I once sat through an entire press event where they told me that they would combine Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, so that you would use Bluetooth to pair to a gadget that would then provision it for Wi-Fi, and then you would get the best of both worlds.
1:02:40 Speaker 02 Well, look at Apple's whole strategy.
1:02:42 Nilay Patel? And maybe that sort of worked, and maybe it exists. It did not-
1:02:44 Speaker 02 I know that you want to say like, okay, yes, Apple added their things to Bluetooth to make it better, clearly. But AirPods?
1:02:52 Nilay Patel? Right. They made up a fork's Bluetooth and layered it on top of Bluetooth, and no one else gets to use it.
1:02:56 Speaker 02 But without Bluetooth?
1:02:57 Nilay Patel? And their entire, their entire explanation for why they have locked down the, what's it? Now they're on to like, the H2 chip?
1:03:05 Speaker 02 Yep.
1:03:05 Nilay Patel? Is because Bluetooth isn't good enough, so they had to make their own Bluetooth.
1:03:08 Speaker 02 There's Bluetooth in there.
1:03:09 David Pierce? Apple would love to get rid of Bluetooth. And just connect the Apple devices to the Apple headphones.
1:03:14 Speaker 02 The Apple Watch. I mean, these are massive businesses that Bluetooth were, I get what you're saying.
1:03:18 Nilay Patel? Again, Apple made a set of proprietary extensions to Bluetooth in order to make those things happen.
1:03:23 Speaker 02 There's a Bluetooth underpinning.
1:03:25 David Pierce? All right.
1:03:25 Nilay Patel? And, and maybe one day there'll be an AI underpinning.
1:03:28 David Pierce? I'm giving us all, AI is Bluetooth is a take. We're all in.
1:03:32 Speaker 02 AI is not Bluetooth.
1:03:33 David Pierce? Oh, Joanna's out.
1:03:35 Nilay Patel? The bubble will pop on AI is actually the thing, and I'm just making a comparison.
1:03:38 David Pierce? I'm saying, okay, AI is Bluetooth. We're all in.
1:03:41 Nilay Patel? And the specific comparison is-
1:03:42 Speaker 02 No, we're not putting that in. That's not even a spicy take. It's not allowed.
1:03:46 Nilay Patel? And all that's gonna happen is we're gonna, we're gonna be here next year, we're gonna talk about this take, and someone's gonna say, well, it'll be better next year, which is all they ever said about Bluetooth. That's the only comparison I'm making.
1:03:55 Speaker 02 Okay.
1:03:55 David Pierce? Okay. I like it. All right. We're gonna do one more of these next week. We have some other fun 2025 prediction stuff to do, but for now, we're done. Thank you all. Appreciate you guys doing this with me.
1:04:06 Speaker 02 That's me, I think.
1:04:07 Nilay Patel? I already won.
1:04:09 David Pierce? All right. That's it for the Vergecast today. Thank you to Neelai and Joanna for playing this very silly game with me. And thank you, as always, for listening. There's lots more on, frankly, all of the stuff we've been making predictions about all over theverge.com. I'll put some links in the show notes, as many as I can think of, but keep it locked on the website. Clearly, 2025 is going to be a year. We have a subscription now. Fun time to subscribe to The Verge. There's just a lot that is coming. And as always, check out the homepage. It's free. It's awesome. Have a peek. And if you've thoughts, questions, feelings, or other predictions for 2025 you'd like to get off your chests, you can always email us at [email protected] or call the hotline, 866-VERGE11. We truly love hearing from you. Thank you to everybody who's called in with questions
1:04:53 David Pierce? for the meta hotline that's running on Tuesday. Tons of fun stuff. That's a really fun episode. Really enjoyed doing that. And if you have more questions, keep them coming. We have a backlog of really, really fun ones. We have plans to do stuff with. Hit me up. I'm ready for it. This show is produced by Liam James, Will Pore, and Eric Gomez. Vergecast is Verge Production and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. We'll be back on Tuesday with the meta episode that we've been talking about for a while, and then back to our regularly scheduled programming for a couple of weeks before the end of the year. We'll see you then. Rock and roll.
1:05:30 David Pierce? I work here. You know, that thing you have to wake up for every day. I know. I've made things a little difficult in the past. Okay, a lot difficult, but I got some help from UKG. And finally, I understand. Now I'm making work work better. I've even got AI agents helping me find new ways to help you, your people, and your business. Because when work works, everything works. UKG, HR, Pay, and Workforce Management.
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