Did We Kill the Iranian Nuke Program or Not? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

In this episode of "Eyes on Geopolitics," I join co-host Andy Milburn to discuss the recent U. S. bombing of Iran's nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. We delve into the efficacy of the strikes, particularly concerning the depth of Iran's centrifuges and the capabilities of the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. Our conversation also explores the DIA assessment, which was leaked and reported on by CNN, suggesting the program was set back only by months, as well as the geopolitical implications for U. S.-Israel-Iran relations, potential Iranian blowback, the internal dynamics of the Iranian regime, and the future of nuclear negotiations. Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse New merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️ https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.com Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_app Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social 00:00 Start & U. S. Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Sites 02:26 DIA Assessment on Program Setback 03:20 GBU-57 Effectiveness & Centrifuge Depth 7:08: Geopolitical Timing & Strike Implications 13:11 Potential Iranian Blowback 22:37 Iranian Regime's Domestic Issues 32:13 Future of Nuclear Negotiations Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

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• 1:27Speaker 03

  The question is, are the Iranians going to use this, right? Are they going to weaponize and use it against us? And who knows? I mean, it's speculation. But think about this. That's a finite amount of uranium. It's a fair amount of enriched uranium, but it's a finite amount anyway, right? At this stage, especially when you are operating against two nuclear nations, it would be near suicidal to load up a finite number of weapons with your remaining enriched uranium and conduct strikes. Mm-hmm. The Iranians are not suicidal. In fact, they are among all our enemies, possibly the most rational of actors. I mean, bar the Chinese, of course.

• 2:12Speaker 03

  But they're very... You know, they haven't stayed in power this long through doing purely crazy shit.

• 2:34Speaker 04

  Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes On geopolitics, special one because we missed them so much. Andy Milburn's here, the man, the myth, the legend. I wanted to get his take on what went down over the weekend with, you know, the United States bombing the nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Obviously, you guys know what went down, B2 bombers, 14 GBUs, you know, the big boy bunker busters and 30 tomahawks from a submarine.

• 3:07Speaker 04

  Andy, what's going on? How are you?

• 3:09Speaker 03

  Yeah, hey Dee, well, first of all, great to be back and I'm sorry that my compadres are not here too, because I think it puts undue pressure on the audience just to have me here waxing lyrical. But on the other hand, I'm happy to do so. And just a couple of preliminary preliminary comments. I was caught unawares by the strike. No one gave me a heads up and actually I was mid-flight between Tampa and Riyadh and spent a delightful 24 hours in Istanbul as air traffic controllers decided, or rather the powers that be decided which flights to cancel,

• 3:53Speaker 03

  which airspace was was going to remain open. And so I got into Riyadh, early hours of yesterday morning and promptly had to go to work, which has made my week so far delightful. And by the way, you mentioned Isfahan and I do, I do not totally arbitrarily want to

• 4:17Speaker 03

  say that that that brings back memories myself. I was oddly enough, and I may be certainly in a minority here among former US veterans, but I have spent time in Isfahan and I happen to have spent time in Isfahan during a missile attack, in this case by the Iraqis, which tells you how long ago it was, 1988 during the War of the Cities.

• 4:41Speaker 04

  Wow.

• 4:41Speaker 03

  It's a beautiful, yeah, beautiful city, absolutely lovely, which is not making any comments about the strikes themselves, which I know we're going to talk about. So what uh what questions you have? Do you do you want me to just to launch in?

• 4:57Speaker 04

  I think the biggest thing, I think, obviously, the ceasefire, right? Whether it holds or not, but I guess we could talk about that after, because the big news that Trump that, for lack of a better word, was uh the DIA assessment that got leaked and and uh reported on by CNN that stated that the Iran's nuclear program is basically set back a few to several months. I think that was the wording.

• 5:22Speaker 03

  Yeah, yeah. So and to uh ju- just just uh by way of expectation management, I don't have any insights. And certainly, if I did have insights, I mean, I do have insights. Of course, I do. What I mean is, I don't have any access information. If I did, of course, I couldn't share it here. But hey, you will notice that there are many views on this particular topic. And so I will simply express an opinion. Before the strike even took place, US intelligence, former intelligence officials opined that the most that even the

• 6:03Speaker 03

  US could do with the GBU 57, which is the massive ordinance penetrator, which is actually what we dropped, the most that we could do was set the program back. I think you probably remember those comments. And in fact, you've had guests on there, former agency guys who've said the same thing. Well, that seems likely to be the case for a number of reasons. One is that when some of the the the planning of a decade or or so ago, when the when the first topic of striking, the first time that the topic of striking Iran's nuclear facilities

• 6:43Speaker 03

  came up, uh, it was, uh, you know, it was possible that the centrifuges were within range, or it was judged that the centrifuges were within range at the uh. GBU fifty seven, but since then, and as you can imagine, the Iranians have dug deeper, literally, all right, and so experts opine now, open source, that while the the limited penetration limit of the massive ordnance penetrated the GBU fifty seven, dropped by itself admittedly is sixty five meters, right, and they estimate that the centrifuges

• 7:25Speaker 03

  and Firdal, for example, are at least ninety five to a hundred meters deep, which means that they're about thirty meters on the outside, okay, now there's a couple of ways to mitigate that, one is to drop two of these bombs almost at once, I mean, one right after the other, so that one penetrates into the, you know, the crater formed by the other. And that seems to have been the tactic here, by the way, the B two is the only aircraft that can carry these things, I mean, they're thirty thousand pounds apiece, so you imagine a B two carrying two, that's sixty thousand pounds, amazing, you know, fifteen tons of explosive.

• 8:07Speaker 04

  Yeah, wild, I think they said it's like two thousand pounds of tungsten at the top of the, of the warhead, yeah.

• 8:13Speaker 03

  Yeah, which, you know, which adds to its penetration capability, so, you know, hard to say, I mean, if, if things had gone exactly according to plan, and one had been dropped on top of the other, in, in each case, I think fourteen, yeah, fourteen bombs were dropped by seven B twos, then, although not on Firdal.

• 8:39Speaker 04

  I think all twelve out of the fourteen were on Fordo.

• 8:43Speaker 03

  Oh, twelve out of fourteen, okay, in, in any case, yes, it, it's, it's hard to say conclusively whether that plan should have worked, right, but it's certainly believable, credible, that.

• 9:01Speaker 03

  That they, you know, they didn't quite reach the centrifuges themselves. I don't know if the DIA leaked to report what it's based on, but I assume it's based on more than speculation, right? Yeah. Based on some kind of battle damage assessment. But let me just say, absolutely credible that that we've set the Iranians back months but haven't destroyed the the nuclear site completely. And I can't explain why the Israelis have come out with a different estimate. They just did, yeah. Yeah, you know, they they were a little more, a little more optimistic. Uh, and I don't, you know, who knows what the what the truth is, or whether we will find out in the near future, of course, the

• 9:48Speaker 03

  you know, the timing, the timing was as perfect as we can expect to get it, except that this didn't happen five to 10 years ago before the sites had been buried deeper. And by that mean, as perfect as we can expect it. And I'm sure that Mark and Mick have already commented on this, you know, we've always there, there's been

• 10:10Speaker 03

  three things holding us back from striking nuclear Iran's nuclear facilities before. One is essentially for fear of repercussions, not fear, but for concerned repercussions from Iran's proxies. Uh, Hezbollah, but more notably the Shia militia in Iran. And that risk, I mean, that hasn't, I wouldn't say that stopped us alone, but it was certainly uh, it was certainly something that we took into consideration. Of course, Iranian proxies are now on the ropes for the time being. So the timing was good from that perspective. Secondly, of course, you know, you always run a risk when you penetrate an enemy's

• 10:54Speaker 03

  integrated air defense systems, you run a risk of being shot down. And um, in this case, the Israelis uh, have, you know, they they cleared the way for us. Um, and the third part of this was, yes, we were Concerned about the depth to which the centrifuges had been sunk and how much damage we could actually do. Well, I don't know the details on this, but apparently the Israelis had already created the sites, which presumably meant that the bombs that we dropped had less distance to penetrate. I don't know. I can't say conclusively again

• 11:33Speaker 03

  whether that part is is correct or not. And it was also it was also well timed in a sense from the point of view that it seemed like as though negotiations were going nowhere. I mean, let's let's be honest, it's taken two decades of both negotiating and planning and threatening to bring us to this point. If the Iranians have lost their their ability to generate nuclear weapons, I think that's a good thing for the region. You know, they they have the ways that the way that they threatened the region up to this point is

• 12:14Speaker 03

  by through a massive array of ballistic missiles. Oh, that was the other reason too, right? We were concerned potentially about missile strikes on on allied countries or even US bases, missile and drone strikes. And yet their inventory has been drastically reduced. It hasn't been obliterated entirely, but it has been reduced by the Israeli strikes. So the the timing was was propitious.

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• 13:40Speaker 03

  Uh, but you know, again, we were dealing with a um, a physics problem and it's hard to say whether how successful we were. Time will tell.

• 13:53Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah. And what you mentioned with the Israelis coming out saying that it's set it back many years. That's from the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission through the Prime Minister's office.

• 14:05Speaker 04

  To talk a little bit about like to the geopolitical angle of this, because the DIA assessment, early assessment came out yesterday. And you need to get it? I can cut this.

• 14:14Speaker 03

  Yeah, I'll stop having no show. Okay, go ahead. I'm listening.

• 14:18Speaker 04

  So the DIA assessment, the early assessment that came out yesterday that Trump's been refuting. Pretty uh, pretty hard, pretty uh, viscerally, I'd say, pretty uh, adamantly. Uh, says that it came back only a few months, obviously compared to the Israeli one. It's like, is this Israel trying to like placate Trump to try and just to be like, hey, yeah, no, we did this and it worked. And you know, the region's better for it because I do think it sets. Uh, well, starting from last year's bombing Iran sets like a pretty dangerous precedent, like where Israel could just like pick up and bomb them whenever they feel like it.

• 14:58Speaker 03

  Yeah, hard to say. I mean, certainly Netanyahu was urging Trump to do this, but I like to think that that the United States did this for for our own reasons, because it was in our own national interest. And again, you know, I, I don't think anyone can get sentimental about Iran losing its ability to generate nuclear weapons and has proven itself to be a, to be a difficult actor, to say the least, in the region. But, but at the same time, yes, and we want to avoid for, for our own interests. And this is me speaking, obviously not speaking for the administration, but we want to avoid being closely aligned to Israel.

• 15:40Speaker 03

  You know, here I am in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a, you know, ally of ours too.

• 15:47Speaker 03

  The, there is a great deal of sensitivity about how closely, from the Arab world here, you know, how closely the United States is aligning itself with Israeli policy. I think we have to be wary of that. And we have to be our own actors if we are to maintain credibility in the region. And by the way, whether we like it or not, you know, the strike did help bolster US credibility in the region. You know, we actually followed through and did something. We did something that was, you know, outside Iran and outside Iran's proxies is widely regarded in the Middle East to include among Gulf states and Saudi Arabia as being generally a good thing.

• 16:32Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 16:34Speaker 04

  In terms of blowback, do you think at some point, I know there's obviously a ceasefire right now, but Iran's gotta be thinking about doing something, right? I mean, I can't really see them just cowering and just be like, okay, we'll give up everything, you know, we need to give up and you guys want our ballistic missiles too? We could, you know, all terms, all types of like actual self-defense too, not just a nuclear program. Obviously, the nuclear program's no bueno, but

• 17:03Speaker 04

  what do you think the blowback looks like?

• 17:05Speaker 03

  Yeah, that's a great question, and I don't know. I, I do know that the regime must right now be feeling quite desperate, you know, they're not, now, let me, let me rephrase that, okay, but they, I mean, they have they're certainly they're certainly on the ropes, they're certainly at a severe disadvantage. They haven't lost all of their ability to cause harm. And they still have a significant

• 17:33Speaker 03

  missile inventory and Hezbollah, it's a matter of time before Hezbollah and even Hamas are back on their feet again. You know, I mean, the, the amount of anger that has been generated in the last two years by Israeli actions, for instance, in the Middle East are, is, you know, it's not going to die away, all right? And there's going to be, certainly, there's going to be a resurgence of these two groups. They're not down and out. But it's going to be a while before Iran can really flex its muscles again, if, if, you know, if, if it can in the, in the near future. So that's a long-winded way of saying that I

• 18:12Speaker 03

  don't know, but I, I just want to remind listeners again of the Vincennes incident, which back in 1989, when the USS Vincennes mistakenly shot down an Iranian Airbus with some 250 civilian passengers on board. And almost a decade later, the Iranians, one assumes, planted a bomb in the van of the skipper of the Vincennes, the skipper at the time in San Diego. He, he would, it turned out he didn't get in the vehicle, it was his wife, and she was severely injured. But I think, you know, there, it's just a, an example of how the Iranians

• 18:57Speaker 03

  are willing to play, or perhaps that's the only game they can play sometimes is the long game to, to exact vengeance. But I don't, I, I, you know, to them, Israel is the big enemy. It doesn't mean that we have, we've, we, we're lily white as far as they're concerned. We did just strike their nuclear facilities, but I don't think striking back at the United States is going to be a top priority. The, the missile attack on Al-Adeed was a pro forma

• 19:29Speaker 04

  Right.

• 19:31Speaker 03

  act done, as I think we all know, for the sake of saving face, they gave Qatar a heads up that it was going to happen. Only 15 missiles were fired, and they were fired in a half-hearted type attempt, right? It wasn't really a serious attempt. It was just, look, okay, now we're going to get back. It was for domestic consumption. And, you know, the Iranian media, state-owned media, of course, are trumpeting that we inflicted, that we suffered casualties, et cetera, et cetera. But everyone knows that what didn't happen. Now, if they really wanted to strike back at us, they would have gone after our bases in Iraq using Shia militia drones,

• 20:11Speaker 03

  you know, which they've done before to to greater effect, or Syria. And by the way, bases in Iraq and Syria are not protected by Patriot missile battle batteries, the one in Al Adid is. So it was kind of a, it was a safe way to be seen to exact vengeance and look good.

• 20:32Speaker 04

  Let me ask, why aren't those other bases in Iraq and Syria not protected by Patriot batteries?

• 20:40Speaker 03

  Yeah, great question. Well, there's only a limited number of Patriot batteries to go around, right? And now they may have, I, you know, I, I may, my, my information may now be outdated, but, but that, that, that was, that was certainly the case, you know, a few months ago.

• 21:01Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 21:02Speaker 03

  And, and in any case, you know, even protected by Patriot batteries is not, when you, when it comes to short range air defense, Patriots only do a certain amount of good and they don't, they, they are not good at blocking drones or short range, other short range missiles. And, and that's the threat really in both Syria and in Iraq, drones and other shorter range missiles fired by local militias.

• 21:33Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 21:34Speaker 03

  That's not so much a issue, but Iraq certainly.

• 21:37Speaker 04

  Also another bit of a, from the assessment, and even before the early assessment got released yesterday, about the 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, like supposedly we don't know where that is.

• 21:49Speaker 03

  Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I, I know there's a great deal of angst about that and it's, I, I would say this, okay? I, I think it's the right thing to do to give them a heads up. Okay. That kind of keeps things again on, on this, not, not a gentleman's playing. That's not what I'm trying to say. What I'm trying to say is that, hey, we're the United States, it's saying we live by values. Um, we will, we save lives where we can, but on the other hand, we are going to take out your nuclear program. All right. The downside was 400 kilograms of, apparently, we don't know for sure, but 400 kilograms of enriched uranium escaped. Well.

• 22:32Speaker 03

  The question is, are the Iranians going to use this, right? Are they going to weaponize and use it against us? And who knows? I mean, there's speculation, but think about this. That's a finite amount of uranium. It's a lot, you know, it's a fair amount of enriched uranium, but it's a finite amount anyway. All right, at this stage, especially when you are operating against two nuclear nations, it would be near suicidal to load up a finite number of weapons with your remaining enriched uranium and conduct strikes. And the Iranians are not suicidal. In fact, they are among all our enemies, possibly the most rational of actors. I mean, bar the Chinese, of course.

• 23:17Speaker 03

  I mean, but they're very, you know, they haven't stayed in power this long through doing purely crazy shit.

• 23:27Speaker 04

  Um, so what I meant by like not strapping like 60% enriched uranium to like ballistic missiles and shooting them into Tel Aviv. But I meant like, you know, bringing them to, you know, one of their shadow sites. Or there is some reporting that Isfahan is deeper than Fordow, where their centrifuges are. Um, so like bringing it, bringing it there and like enriching it and continuing their program.

• 23:52Speaker 03

  Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's always a risk. And, you know, we know of those three sites, right? Uh, but there are, there's now reports that the program may be more distributed than we thought, that there are more than those three sites. So, you know, the potential risks multiply. Uh, we did, we did what we could with the intelligence that we had at the time. Uh, but the time marches on and the Iranians, as I said, are.

• 24:23Speaker 03

  They, you know, they, they're pretty smart.

• 24:26Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 24:27Speaker 03

  People, and again, the regime stayed in power this long and I'm sure they haven't planted all their eggs into just three baskets. So, yeah, I think we can, we can go down paths that lead us to many risky scenarios that have resulted from the strike. But nevertheless, I still, you know, I, I believe it was a, it was a good thing, even if we just set back, set the program back because it sent a very powerful message that we are serious about doing this.

• 24:58Speaker 04

  Yeah. Barack Ravid, the Axios, not the, the Unit 8200 news reporter, I mean, the Axios reporter, wrote just recently, Israeli official with direct knowledge says that intercepted comms suggests Iranian military officials are lying to their political leadership about the extent of the damage at the nuclear sites.

• 25:20Speaker 03

  Oh, oh, right. Lying as far as it's worse than they're saying, right?

• 25:24Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah.

• 25:25Speaker 03

  Yeah. Yeah. Again, who knows? Multiple reports, right?

• 25:29Speaker 04

  But that also came out like literally minutes after the Israel Atomic Energy Commission came out and said that it's going to take many years for them to come back. So, I mean, I'm sure there's a PR, PR aspect to all this and like, you know, who's winning the spin game? Because you see what's going on there. You know, they're touting it as like the victory over Israel day there, right? Like they had like a whole rally and stuff. So.

• 25:58Speaker 03

  Well, think about, think about the problems that the Iranian regime is having with its domestic audience. You know, we've talked about this, that even in its pro forma elections, it is losing, has lost ground in the last few years, or the electorate has simply not bothered to show up and there have been.

• 26:24Speaker 03

  You know, there is a significant opposition group within Iran and they're fed up with the economy being in the toilet. They're fed up with uh with the IRGC's adventurism overseas. Uh which is costing the state in financial terms and in terms of being a political pariah. And has done, you know, since since the birth of the Islamic Republic.

• 26:48Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 26:49Speaker 03

  And uh remember too that Iran has a highly educated middle class, you know, it's uh. And I wouldn't say unusual, but it's in a minority among Middle Eastern countries to have such an advanced um middle class. Uh and you know, they're not, they've got to be careful how they exhibit their, damn it, their uh opposition to the regime. Because of course, we've seen how the administration exerts crackdowns. But on the other hand, it's real and the Iranian uh regime is is concerned about it. You know, you've probably heard anecdotal reports or even seen YouTube videos about locals cheering uh even the Israeli strikes.

• 27:33Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 27:33Speaker 03

  In military facilities. So their discontent is real and the administration is concerned about that. So it isn't, they're just not, they're not just looking at what they're gonna do. As far as taking on their geopolitical opponents, they're also wary about how they appear to the domestic audience right now.

• 27:56Speaker 04

  Hmm. Yeah, and they they are.

• 27:58Speaker 03

  Domestic audience does not appear to want more, even now.

• 28:02Speaker 04

  Yeah. Uh you could say that too about the United States domestic audience as well, right? Like.

• 28:08Speaker 03

  Uh, well, yeah, sixty percent opposed. Only sixteen percent were for.

• 28:14Speaker 04

  Right.

• 28:15Speaker 03

  Us taking action against Iran until we did take action and then I believe the numbers are much higher.

• 28:21Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 28:21Speaker 03

  Everyone were like, so that was it.

• 28:23Speaker 04

  Yeah. Well, I mean, hopefully that's it, right? Uh.

• 28:26Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 28:28Speaker 04

  Um, there was one more piece I wanted to talk to you about.

• 28:34Speaker 04

  I'm just looking over Twitter to see if something popped off. Um.

• 28:39Speaker 04

  Hexeth just announced about an hour ago that they're gonna task the FBI to investigate the leak of the DIA assessment.

• 28:48Speaker 04

  It seems like there is a bit of a back and forth kinda going on in the uh annals of government. Where, you know. People aren't exactly uh willing to just. Go by whatever. Sounds the best, right? Cause if I had to bet money, I would bet that it's closer a few months rather than a few years where this nuclear program is set back. And I just don't know what the end game looks like. Is it just like every time we feel like it or Israel feels like it? We can hit Iran and and uh.

• 29:24Speaker 03

  No, I I mean, in in fairness, I think, you know, this was two decades in coming, D. I think, I mean, generations of US planners have. Have planned this particular strike and and it was conducted in a very sophisticated way. I think it was. It it was in that sense a one off. And the timing was. Was absolutely right. I don't know what the motivation is for leaking that report. It's kind of interesting and I don't know. If if even if it was deliberately leaked, I assume, of course, it was.

• 29:58Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 29:58Speaker 03

  And I find it. Highly unusual. That there have been so many leaks of secret and top secret information from you from DOD in in the last. You know, the last few months, the last five months. It's it's certainly um. It's a strange trend. I mean, it's it is to say it's unusual is is an exaggeration. I mean, you don't really you don't really see that.

• 30:24Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 30:24Speaker 03

  And only within DOD.

• 30:26Speaker 04

  Um, oh, and going back, I remember what I wanted to tell you. I you you there have been reports of like. The regime in Iran rounding up like seven hundred or so suspected Israeli agents. Uh, people that I guess helped facilitate stuff for the for Mossad and Israel. Uh, so yeah, it does seem like they're very much cracking down. Also, last week I had a former Marine, I keep having Marines on this goddamn show, I gotta mix it up. John Hackett, who's

• 30:54Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 30:54Speaker 04

  Yeah. No, that's, it's another John Hackett. Actually, yeah. Um, and he said he's like, they had a protest, literally like once, uh, the bombing started, like there was a protest, anti-regime protest, they started fucking snatching them up and, and you haven't heard from them since, uh, literally within a day. While they're getting bombed, they were snatching up people who were like anti-regime, anti-regime sentiment. So again, like, you know, this Iranian regime isn't exactly, uh, you know, fucking, you know, uh, mellows and gumdrops. They're not exactly

• 31:31Speaker 03

  No, no, I mean, I mean, uh, the, the The Iranian regime has kept people in line through executions and torture and

• 31:40Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 31:41Speaker 03

  mass incarceration since its birth. I mean, let's not, let's not sidestep this issue. It's a it, it's a highly disruptive, bad influence throughout the Middle East, malign.

• 31:56Speaker 04

  Mm hmm.

• 31:56Speaker 03

  And, and has been and despite every attempt to alter its course, external attempt to alter its course, it, it has kept that course and has pursued a policy of a military adventurism overseas at, at a great cost to regional stability. I mean, I, anyone who starts to get mushy eyed about Iran just needs to look at the fact that the Iranians, you know, and of course the Russians subsequently extended and exacerbated the war in Syria. Which, uh,

• 32:34Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 32:34Speaker 03

  You know, it's seen half a million deaths and a million and a half refugees. I mean, more than that, actually a million and a half external refugees. I mean, just incredible suffering over the course of the last 14 years. That was, that was Iran's playground. That was Hezbollah's playground, as you know.

• 32:56Speaker 04

  The interesting thing to see is like how Hezbollah hasn't really done anything. I know they're in a bad way, obviously.

• 33:04Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 33:05Speaker 04

  But I'm still, I'm, I'm pretty sure they still have some of their rockets intact, right? And they're very close to Israel. And it's interesting how they kind of not done much.

• 33:16Speaker 03

  Well, I mean, I think they're probably having, I would, I would guess it's not just by the rockets, but command and control problems, succession of leadership problems. The whatever, who knows? I mean, the Iranians never had kind of carte blanche, do it, don't do it authority over Hezbollah. Nasrallah was his own man. And we don't know how Hezbollah has emerged from that, how it is now. But it's certainly probably not the right time viewed by most Hezbollah, surviving Hezbollah leaders to, to pop its head above the parapet again.

• 33:55Speaker 04

  Yeah, I could totally see there being a huge power vacuum there right now, right? Like people.

• 34:01Speaker 05

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 34:15Speaker 06

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant. So I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 34:26Speaker 05

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 34:31Jack Murphy?

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 34:37Speaker 05

  So join us and hear their stories and more because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart radio app today.

• 34:57Speaker 04

  Well, jostling for control or maybe not because like your number one target list.

• 35:01Speaker 03

  Yeah, hard to tell. I mean, they had Hezbollah had a pretty. A pretty well-designed succession of command, you know, I mean, remember we used to say, oh, I used to say that among all decapitation strikes, the one was likely to really have some lasting effect was if Nasrallah was taken out because he was, he embodied Hezbollah in a way that few other leaders embody their organization. And he was, you know, say what you like, but yes, a bad actor, but he was a highly talented, charismatic, bad actor who wielded extraordinary influence, not just within his organization, but throughout Lebanese

• 35:45Speaker 03

  politics and indeed throughout kind of the militant politics of the of the region.

• 35:50Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 35:51Speaker 03

  He was an icon. And so losing him undoubtedly put, no one really thought that he would be lost. But losing him undoubtedly has put Hezbollah in the ropes for a while. And that is probably why you're not seeing any coherent decision making coming out of the organization, at least for the time being.

• 36:10Speaker 04

  Yeah. Well, Andy, I mean, I'm trying to think, I think I'm good. I think I have enough of all that I need.

• 36:16Speaker 03

  Well, well, I hope so. What I'm looking forward to reappearing with everyone else.

• 36:22Speaker 04

  Me too. I can't wait.

• 36:23Speaker 03

  Creative time.

• 36:24Speaker 04

  What do you think? Do you think Iran comes back to the nuclear negotiation table?

• 36:30Speaker 03

  Well, I mean, the question is, do the nuclear negotiations go on? I mean, what are we negotiating about or for anymore? That's, that's really the, the issue. And honestly, it was kind of a half-hearted approach by both sides, right? So I don't see there being more nuclear negotiations anytime soon, certainly not under this administration.

• 36:52Speaker 04

  Andy Milburn, everybody, check him out. The links are in the description. Grab his book, When the Tempest Gathers. Excellent memoir. When's the new book coming out?

• 37:02Speaker 03

  Oh, yeah. Hopefully my publisher is not watching right now, but he's just given me an extension to the end of the month.

• 37:09Speaker 04

  Okay.

• 37:10Speaker 03

  So it'll be coming out before the end of the year.

• 37:12Speaker 04

  All right, great. All right. So awesome. So we'll keep an eye out for that. Um. Guys, help support the show, patreon.com/the team house. You get both Eyes on Geopolitics and the Team House completely ad-free, and a lot more perks that go with it. Of course, remember, check out Andy. His links are in the description. Andy's got a Substack too, it's good. And, uh, yeah, thanks Andy, this is awesome, as usual.

• 37:37Speaker 03

  Yeah, all the best, everyone. See you, uh, see you again in a few days. Thanks, Dean.

• 37:42Speaker 04

  Thank you.

• 37:44Jack Murphy?

  Hey guys, it's Jack. I just want to talk to you for a moment about how you can support the show, if you've been watching it, enjoying it, but you'd like to get a little bit more involved and help us continue to do this. You can check out our Patreon. It is patreon.com/the Team House. And for $5 a month, you can get access to all of these episodes of The Team House, ad-free. The same goes with our affiliated podcast, Eyes On, with Andy Milburn, Jason Lyons, McMulroy. That one, you will also get all of those episodes, ad-free. And you support the channel and the show, and we really appreciate it. The Patreon members are literally what has helped this company, this small business survive, especially during our early years.

• 38:29Jack Murphy?

  And you are what continues to help this thing going, even as we navigate the turbulent world of YouTube advertising. So we really appreciate all of you guys. There's going to be a link down in the description to that Patreon page, and there is also going to be a link to our new merch shop. So if you guys want to go and get some Team House merchandise, we got stickers, and we also have patches. And I should mention, if you sign up for Patreon at $10 a month, we will mail you this patch as well. So we really appreciate that. But they're also for sale on the merch shop. And additionally, they got t-shirts up there, water bottles, a tote bag, coffee mugs, all that good stuff.

• 39:14Speaker 05

  So please go and check them out and support the show. We really appreciate it. Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 39:32Speaker 06

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 39:43Speaker 05

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 39:49Jack Murphy?

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 39:54Speaker 05

  So join us and hear their stories and more because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today. Okay, guys, thank you.

• 40:21Speaker 05

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 40:35Speaker 06

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 40:46Speaker 05

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 40:51Jack Murphy?

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 40:57Speaker 05

  So join us and hear their stories and more because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 41:23Speaker 05

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 41:37Speaker 06

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 41:48Speaker 05

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 41:54Jack Murphy?

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 41:59Speaker 05

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 42:27Speaker 05

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 42:42Speaker 06

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 42:53Speaker 05

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 42:58Jack Murphy?

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 43:04Speaker 05

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 43:27Speaker 00

  She's been thinking about this sleepover all week, but I think about her food allergies all the time. Fortunately, her doctor prescribed Zolair, omalizumab. It's proven to significantly reduce allergic reactions if a food allergy accident happens.

• 43:40Speaker 01

  Zolair 150mg is a prescription medication used to treat food allergy in people one year of age and older to reduce allergic reactions due to accidental exposure to one or more foods. While taking Zolair, you should continue to avoid all foods to which you are allergic. Don't use if you are allergic to Zolair. Zolair may cause severe, life-threatening allergic reaction called anaphylaxis. Tell your doctor if you ever had anaphylaxis. Get help right away if you have trouble breathing or if you have swelling of your throat or tongue. Zolair should not be used for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Zolair is for maintenance use to reduce allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis, while avoiding food allergens. Serious side effects such as cancer, fever, muscle aches and rash, parasitic infection, or heart and circulation problems have been reported. Please see zolair.com for full prescribing information. Ask an allergist about Zolair. This is an advertisement for Zolair

• 44:25Speaker 01

  paid for by Genentech and Novartis.

• 44:27Speaker 02

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