Will the U.S. Strike the Houthis For Saudi Arabia? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

We break down the escalating Houthi campaign against Saudi Arabia, the growing threat to shipping through the Bab al-Mandab, and whether the U. S. will intervene as Gulf air-defense stocks and regional confidence in Washington come under strain. We also look at Europe’s fears of further Russian escalation, North Korea exploiting America’s divided attention, and Ukraine’s massive drone and missile strike campaign inside Russia. Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Jack's news outlet:⬇️ https://thehighside.substack.com/ Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️ Jon's Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Jon's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Jon's books: https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B0C5L659N5?ccs_id=e11a2062-f8d3-498e-bfd7-7d2f3869caf6 Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Whitefish security summit ⬇️ https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com Find Marc P here: https://x.com/Mpolymer Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations 00:00 – Start 03:12 – Will the U. S. Strike the Houthis for Saudi Arabia? 06:34 – Houthis, Iran & the Bab al-Mandab 09:55 – Saudi Arabia’s Oil Routes Are Being Choked Off 17:01 – Why Saudi Arabia Can’t Defend Its Own Airspace 22:25 – Has the U. S. Lost Credibility in the Gulf? 29:24 – What Happens If Hormuz & Bab al-Mandab Are Both Shut? 33:00 – Will Washington Actually Strike the Houthis? 42:00 – Is There Any Military Solution to the Houthi Problem? 49:40 – Europe Prepares for Possible Russian Escalation 54:16 – Could Russia Test NATO With a Limited Attack? 59:09 – Should Europe Draw Hard Red Lines in Ukraine? 1:01:22 – North Korea Exploits America’s Divided Attention 1:05:25 – Ukraine Launches a Massive 1,000-Drone Strike Into Russia 1:10:27 – Closing Thoughts Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

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• 1:00Speaker 06

  Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm here with Jonathan Hackett, Mark Pilemaropoulos, Mick Mulroy, and Andy Milburn will be joining us shortly. A lot cooking, a lot of things blowing up. It seems like, what's that saying about like, you know, things that happen like nothing happens for 10 years and then something happens? You know, I don't know. I'm fucking up the phrase, but you guys could look it up. But a lot of things in that within a week, 10 years of things happen. It's something to that effect. Don't hold me to it. We had yesterday, like Twitter was a light of like Trump was at Camp David and it's been like, kind of like a pattern. He goes to Camp David to make like big decisions on like attacking different countries or not.

• 1:43Speaker 06

  Um, he got back early, so Twitter was buzzing. They thought like a B1B that flew out of UK was on its way to Yemen or where Iran, maybe? Who knows? It was a training exercise. There was so much like just people like freaking out on Twitter. It's an amazing place and it's also kind of a scary place because things can really go, get out of hand there. The big thing is the Houthis have been, you know, attacking Saudi Arabia consistently, probably over for the last week. Uh, the big, the big, I guess, debate is whether the US is going to help Saudi Arabia defend itself, uh, you know, jump in the fray with it essentially. Let's start with that. Let's start with that because there's so much other stuff too. We have the European, uh, people freaking out in Europe.

• 2:26Speaker 06

  People meaning like the, the national security establishment in Europe about intel supposedly saying that Russia will try and at least probe or do something with a NATO country to test out the Article Five. There's also rumors in Russia about a mobilization. I think that might be getting mixed into this as well. I mean, we're, we obviously see what's going on in Ukraine. They're barely making any kind of headway there. So if they're going to mobilize, I think anyway, they're going to mobilize for Ukraine specifically. That coupled with a couple of weeks ago, John Ratcliffe rolled up to, to Moscow and gave, I don't know what they did. They had a three-hour meeting and he left and there was a ton of speculation about that as well. I mean, so it's just a myriad of shit happening.

• 3:11Speaker 06

  Your Ukraine shot over like over a thousand missiles over the like the last few days into Russia have hit in and around Moscow, so big refineries and stuff like that. So also while the Duma is being elected, the fake parliament that Russia has essentially is having their, uh, their elections. So there's a ton of stuff happening. Let's start with the Houthis and, uh, will we attack them, you know, in response and defense of Saudi Arabia? I'm going to go with Mick Mulroy first. New grandpa, congratulations.

• 3:42Speaker 07

  Go with Andy because he's like in the mix. I guess I'm a new grandpa. Wow. Yes, there's a ton of stuff to talk about. When it comes to Iran and its offshoot, the Houthis versus Saudi, we have a ceasefire agreement with the Houthis, the US. At least from media reports, that was affirmed was it last week? In Oman, the reporting is that the US talked to the Houthis and requested that they not close the Bab al-Mandeb, which they are now in better position to do so than they were a couple of weeks ago because they've taken over some of the key islands around the strait itself and position themselves to do more damage.

• 4:23Speaker 07

  So the question for the US is, do we join militarily the Saudis and potentially rupture that agreement where they do more than just strike the petrol line from Epcot to?

• 4:38Speaker 07

  What's the coast, coastal facility? I guess, but or and whether they do more than just attack the ships, the Saudi ships that are trying to get through the BAM. They go after every ship. So they do that. So you got 21% of the world's energy supply in the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed. And I don't know the ones, I don't understand the transponder. They turn them off because they're eventually going to turn them back on. So I think the tracking systems would still see that a ship that was in one side is now somewhere else, right? So they could be able to keep up with the ships getting through. So the tracking systems are at about four to five ships right now, when it should be around 130. And then the, the petrol line, which is going to take weeks to be repaired and then could get struck again is 7%. So now up to 28%.

• 5:23Speaker 07

  And then if you add the shipments to the BAM, we're, we're talking serious problems. And I would agree with you. Dee on the Twitter was flying yesterday, not just on the prospect of us attacking either Iran or the Houthis, but what's happening to the world energy market right now? Even if it's only partially true, what's being said on the all over social media, we're about to hit some major shortages of especially diesel around the world. And it's going to have a major spike on prices, not just for the energy to put in our vehicles, but also everything we purchase.

• 6:05Speaker 07

  So this is about to go, I think substantially more pressing, right? At the time, of course, politically, we're going into the last, what? Five weeks before the election. I don't know if this is yet another negotiation tactic to say, oh, we're going to escalate this substantially and see if Iran blinks or if it's real. Because I don't think Iran's going to blink because I don't know how many times you can threaten to escalate, not do it before they just kind of like, well, we'll see. So I'll stop there. And I were talking just about the Houthis right now, but there is so much more to.

• 6:34Speaker 06

  Who wants to go first, Mudwessel?

• 6:37Speaker 03

  If I could just add on there with the Houthis. So it's interesting because the US has been talking to the Houthis, right? So that's on one side. Iran, yesterday in Farsi media, did a visit to Mokka and Mayun. Mayun is the small island that's in the Bab al-Mandeb, like actually in the middle of the, of that strait. Four IRGC commanders visited. They went on two separate flights. They separated their flights staggered on purpose for obvious reasons and visited Mokka and then went all the way down to Mayun. And what that looks like to me is the Houthis are realizing they're growing power in the region. Just like how Iran discovered the Straits of Hormuz being more important than they thought it was. The Houthis are currently probably discovering the leverage that they now exert on the Bab al-Mandeb. So they're talking directly to the United States and they're having visit,

• 7:21Speaker 03

  they're hosting visits from the IRGC. So they're in a pretty strong position right now to call some shots, probably visa v Saudi Arabia, visa v Bab al-Mandeb. Also to try to perhaps negotiate with the US directly to make it safer for themselves. Not just against the Saudis, but remember there's Al Qaeda is also in Yemen. There are also other Salafi jihadist groups in eastern Yemen. So there are other issues and concerns the Houthis might have that they might be trying to purchase through negotiations with the US directly and also with the IRGC. So they're playing a little bit of a balancing game right now too. And I wouldn't be surprised if it went more broad, more deep than it is currently as they discovered more of that power that they have over this tiny little space.

• 8:03Speaker 03

  They control over 250 miles of coastline, which is around 400 kilometers. That's the entire western coast of Yemen, the Taha Ma coastline. Almost a third of it is within range of the anti-ship missiles that they have.

• 8:17Speaker 03

  So they're able to really put those vessels at risk if they want to. And the US knows that, the IRGC knows that, and the Houthis know that. So that would be an interesting thing to, to watch over the next few weeks. How do the Houthis leverage this, this moment they have? Will they use it wisely or will they squander it?

• 8:34Speaker 05

  You know, and I I've said this on this on this show before. The Houthis are the most capable of Iran's proxies. And this and then talk about as a threat to US interests again. I mean, I know this is controversial topic, but the last time the that Hezbollah really inflicted US casualties could be wrong was back in the eighties, right? You know, I'm not I'm not defending Hezbollah. I'm just saying the Houthis are the ones who are really capable. They're capable of talking about. We talked last week.

• 9:03Speaker 06

  Yeah, Andy was on a, Andy was on a run too.

• 9:05Speaker 05

  To develop.

• 9:06Speaker 06

  They're like, what? Excuse me?

• 9:09Speaker 06

  How dare you? How dare you?

• 9:11Speaker 05

  By all accounts.

• 9:13Speaker 06

  You said what?

• 9:13Speaker 05

  They have a greater indigenous capability to manufacture.

• 9:17Speaker 06

  Magic word and we didn't like it.

• 9:19Speaker 05

  Than Hezbollah or any proxy.

• 9:22Speaker 06

  Andy, we lost you there. You got cut off, something happened, there was some kind of interference.

• 9:27Speaker 05

  Yeah, okay, can you hear me now?

• 9:30Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 9:30Speaker 07

  Yeah, now you're back.

• 9:31Speaker 05

  Okay. I I wasn't singing the praises of the Houthis. I was just saying that the most capable of the of the Iranian proxies, right? And so now, now you've got this situation and we discussed it briefly last week, but it's got worse since last week, arguably, right? So the the Yambu, well, first of all, you know, the squeeze on Hormuz that Iran's putting. I know there's been a little more movement in tankers, but the real, the real problem hasn't been solved and isn't going to be solved militarily. We talked about this for obvious reasons. I mean, you can, you can crack open Straits of Hormuz by sheer military force and and pounding everything that interferes with it, but tankers are still at risk and that still drives up insurance card and it still makes shipping companies reluctant to take

• 10:16Speaker 05

  the risk, right? So for Saudi Arabia, exports in the in the red via the Red Sea, which have to transit, well, they don't have to actually, but generally transit the BAM increased eightfold, right? In in the last month or so. And now the Houthis have taken the coastline, as we pointed out, right? All along the BAM and almost simultaneously, D, which means at the same time Iraqi militia. Thank you. Severed the the Yambu pipeline and in the map that D is going to show either now or afterwards, you can very clearly see where the Yambu pipeline runs across northern Saudi

• 10:57Speaker 05

  Arabia from the from the refineries in the east across to the Red Sea in the west, bypassing the BAM, right? So that's been severed. So now that's why oil spiked. I know it's back down to ninety bucks or whatever, but it spiked up to to a hundred. And then the Saudis doubled down in a couple ways, all right? I told you that sophisticated, they reached out directly to the United States. They reminded the US of a non-aggression agreement back in, I think it was nineteen twenty-two, no, not twenty, twenty-two, right? Just a few years ago, saying, hey, we're not going to attack you, not going to attack US ships, so please don't attack us, basically. And it seemed to have worked if the media is to be believed.

• 11:41Speaker 05

  Trump told Saudi Arabia that he would not step in and strike the Houthis. Meanwhile, the Houthis are stepping it up, right? And they launched cruise missiles, drones and ballistic missiles at Riyadh and several other targets reportedly throughout Saudi Arabia yesterday. And they're going off the very specific target, Aramco fuel tanks are one, and I'm just reporting what's in the media, right? So you can see there's, there's a theme to this and it's very, it's quite sophisticated. They seem to be blocking interceptions using some kind of jammer. D, you asked very astutely in in the chat earlier, what is wrong? Why can't Saudi Arabia protect its own skies? And there's a number of reasons.

• 12:26Speaker 05

  I can come back and talk to that, but I don't want to hog the limelight. I will pause there.

• 12:30Speaker 06

  So I think one thing that that, well, there's a couple of things, two things I don't want to repeat everybody's points because they're really good. But one is that, you know, the Houthis are an FTO, a foreign terrorist organization. They're part of their slogan is death to America. Let's remember that. Let's also note that the Trump administration has direct contacts with them. And one interesting thing about the Trump administration is they're kind of violating longstanding US policy and not talking directly to terrorist groups. This is a terrorist group. This is just kind of interesting there. But I think the biggest question for me and and this, or the biggest issue for me, because I always try to put myself, if I had been sitting at the US Embassy in Riyadh or at Riyadh Station, liaison with the Saudis or mix old role in DoD, which was very heavily kind of focused on security relationships is the Saudis are looking at us saying, what the fuck?

• 13:15Speaker 06

  We are not coming to their defense. We can talk for fifty-five years on how Saudi Arabia is a very kind of interesting ally, but the the bottom line is they're an ally and it's a critical ally in the Gulf. And us not doing this, I think, has disastrous consequences for the future of the United States in the region. All of our Gulf partners are going to look at us, they're going to make other deals down the line. If the US is to have alliances, we have to keep up our promises to them. And so the notion of us, President Trump turning them down, negotiating with the terrorist group, I I think is all because of frankly, domestic US considerations is is is quite something else. And and and I think that kind of the last point is price of gas in Michigan today is four dollars and ninety-three cents.

• 13:57Speaker 06

  That is, that is a huge political issue in the United States right now, which will affect congressional and Senate races in in Michigan. And so, I don't know, I just, I I think back to my time in US government, I would not want to be at country team meetings in Riyadh right now because the Saudis are pissed and they probably should be. And I don't care, sure, the Saudi Air Force, we've given them billions, they should be able to fly fighters, they they they're not and they can't. Andy, you can address this. Bottom line is we are not there for an ally at their time of need and I got a problem with that.

• 14:25Speaker 07

  And I think we're going to hear it, what Mark just said in spades this week at Anga, right? There was supposed to be some substantial meetings between the White House or President Trump, I should say, and a lot of our Gulf allies who have this very question as top of mind, you know? They housed our military for how many years with the idea that it was going to be good for their security, obviously good for our posture there to project power. And now they're questioning whether we're going to come back because we've left a lot of these places that's been struck. And to Mark's point, they're questioning even our willingness to participate in their defense, right? So they didn't, Saudi didn't launch the attacks this time on the Houthis. They're defending themselves, right?

• 15:10Speaker 07

  So they're asking for a defensive posture by the United States to assist them and it doesn't look like we're willing to do it. That I agree with Mark, it's going to spread to the other Gulf countries going, okay, so if they're not a reliable partner, who is?

• 15:24Speaker 06

  China, right?

• 15:26Speaker 07

  That's, yeah. And President G, we're going to talk about that. He's coming, he's coming this week too. That's, I mean, yeah.

• 15:33Speaker 06

  I mean, man, just think back, I mean, you know, I I know you loved your government service and and I'm being serious when I say this, this would not be a real fun time to be in the Middle East shop at the Pentagon.

• 15:43Speaker 07

  This would be very tough.

• 15:44Speaker 06

  It would be tough. Or just as I said, our country team in in Riyadh, having to explain your Saudi interlocutors and why we're not doing something. This, I mean, you know, it's, it's just, you know, look, national security is a team sport and we talk about CIA, we recruit unilateral sources, we also have liaison relationships. Then so so US military and the US intelligence community relies heavily on these and we're not stepping up right now.

• 16:08Speaker 05

  Yeah, you know, the, D, I again, I saw your, your astute question about why Saudi Arabia needs US help and it's really to go after the launches. Saudi Arabia, and I'm just, I'm just looking at open source material right now, has an interceptor problem, right? And and and I'll talk about that in a moment. But the and to and you know, the, the way to solve that is two ways to solve that problem is a defensive way and Saudi Arabia does need help with its layering, its air defense. It's a massive country. It's the size of Western Europe, right? And there's all kinds of sensitive sites or in Saudi Arabia, right? But I'm, I'm going to talk, I'm going to talk about that in a moment, but but that

• 16:52Speaker 05

  takes time to set up, right? So the big reason Riyadh wants the US to to go on the offense against the Houthis is destroying launches and that's the only way to cut demand instantly on interceptors since supply specifically for the the PAC3s, the Patriots is, I mean, it's, everyone knows the US is in short supply, right? I mean, that is open source knowledge. Lockheed Martin's getting specific direction about where to put them as they roll off the, you know, off the the manufactured lines and and the US just cannot afford to give PAC3s away right now. You know, also helps explain Trump's hesitation because it it appears as though, and I'm

• 17:35Speaker 05

  not defending any decisions, but it appears as though the squeeze on Hormuz might just be working and all aviation assets away from there again. I'm, I'm not saying this is a good argument, I'm just saying it's the argument would would would open up, you know, would would take the pressure off of Iran just at the wrong wrong moment, right? But, but you know, this air defense thing is, you know, Ukraine is, we're going to talk about Ukraine. Ukraine is undoubtedly the most advanced country in the world in and has worked wonders with what it has and with layered air defense. But the rest of the world is is behind both in assets and and expertise, right? We we talked about the cost of interception here.

• 18:19Speaker 05

  That's not so much the issue right now. It is, it is magazine stores and there are numbers that CSIS has released on expenditure of stocks. Let's just say this, that the Gulf countries, I'm not going to single out Saudi Arabia, are critically low on interceptors, right? You, the US is down to, you see estimates of about, you know, down to estimates thirty, forty percent, right? So that is a, that is a problem. But there's also the problem that, as I mentioned, size of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh has to protect its cities that are spread out through that, you know, country, size of Western Europe, bases, oil sites and Mecca, right?

• 19:02Speaker 05

  The Saudi Arabia in that sense, very difficult position and you need layered air defense. Patriot and Thad are good for ballistic missiles, but the Houthis have drones and they have cruise missiles and they've used them both in these strikes. So you want cheaper layers underneath, right? You need electronic warfare and you need short range systems. And that is why Saudi Arabia has received assistance from the Greeks of all countries. There are Greeks wandering around in country here. That's, I think that's open source too, who focused on on helping Saudi Arabia with the short, I know, God help us, short range as, you know, air defense system. And so, you know, and finally, I mean.

• 19:43Speaker 05

  Yes, the Saudi Arabia has a technically technologically advanced air force. They are very good at certain things, but they they lack they they need the intelligence for the targeting piece. And frankly, when it comes to air ground coordination, air ground targeting, I'm talking everything from close export to to that to to deep strikes. That's probably not their strongest point, right? And for a combat for a variety of reasons. So again, that's why they've reached out to the US.

• 20:20Speaker 06

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• 22:30Speaker 05

  Andy, one quick thing, though, I mean, is there and if you if you can say this, you know, go ahead. You know, what do you think of the turn the notion that Mick and I were talking about that there's going to be some long term effects if the US does not come to us? And we, by the way, this might change in the next 24 or 48 hours. I mean, indications, we may do something. But if we don't, I mean, you know, what does that mean for not only not only the government in Saudi Arabia, the royal family, but also the people on the street who do look to the US for the protective umbrella? Yeah, I mean, I think certainly the US has lost credibility in the region. I mean, I don't see how anyone could say anything else. I mean, you know, you, the Saudis, by the way, the Saudis are the most reticent about criticizing the United States of any

• 23:14Speaker 05

  country in the Middle East. They are very pro American in the street. They want to talk to you. You know, I mean, they're very, but I've been, I've traveled to Jordan and other countries in the Middle East and there's visible anger. And that doesn't necessarily reflect what the governments are feeling, but you just have to look at what the governments are doing, who they're talking to. You know, the Saudis are hedging their bets by aligning with Turkey and Pakistan as we've seen because and, you know, UAE has not only pulled out of OPEC, threatened to pull out of the Arab League. There is definitely a feeling that that they need to find help from from elsewhere, that the US is worse than perhaps not not

• 23:56Speaker 05

  a good ally is in fact a liability at times, right? And the Gulf countries, again, have borne the brunt of the war as far as strikes. Yes, US assets have been hit, but so have desalination plants, as we've seen, so has oil infrastructure and arguably Saudi Arabia. I mean, it was UAE, but Saudi Arabia now is taking the brunt of of, you know, these kind of strikes from Iran via proxies. And there's no, I mean, the Houthis are their own, their own, I get it, their own organization. And we talks about, you know, the Houthis are independent, blah, blah, blah. They don't take orders from Tehran. But what we just saw this last week, looks like someone was coordinating between the Houthis and Iraqi

• 24:40Speaker 05

  militia against Saudi Arabia. I mean, do you think, do we have a problem? Just, I think the group here, when you look at, you know, I mean, President Trump is basically saying we're in contact with the Houthis. And there's this kind of that, there's this kind of non aggression pact between the US and the Houthis, the Houthis being a terrorist group. Is that something that bothers this group? Because if you if you if you ran counterterrorism operations over the last several decades, like all of us have, that is going against kind of US policy. And and so what's everyone's thoughts on that? Well, it's also strange that we can just. It's it's not in, I don't think it's in US interests. You know, I think US interests right now are to support Saudi Arabia, which is producing much of the oil that the world

• 25:22Speaker 05

  relies on, right? And and has actually, you know, has been a mature ally in the sense of not being not acting reflexively or in anger has has by and large been there for the United States. But it's not about, this isn't about emotional friendships. It's about economics and it's about US interests.

• 25:45Speaker 03

  And also with this agreement, you know, why, why is it that we're honoring this agreement with this group, but we're betraying agreements like the UN treaty, like the UN Charter, for example, by saying we're going to take Denmark from or Greenland from Denmark, for example, or that we're going to make Canada an incorporated state to the United States. So we're not following the actual agreements we have with actual countries, but we're somehow opting to follow this paper agreement with a terrorist organization that has harmed US interests and we have been fighting against them since the early 2000s, genetically. So why is it that we're choosing this agreement? And I'm sure the Saudis are seeing that and questioning, like, why is that? That doesn't make any sense. And that's probably why we see them

• 26:27Speaker 03

  signing the Mecca agreement with Pakistan and Turkey. And they'll probably sign other agreements coming forward as well. And they're hoping to find an ally. This is what's going on. And and we see currently that Saudi Arabia was not able to rely on Turkey to respond to this. And also Pakistan wasn't able to respond, perhaps because Pakistan has its own problems in the Northwest Frontier Province this past week. Over 30 people were killed at a police station. There's a lot of cross border activity going on up there. Pakistan has its own issues right now. And they're also trying to mediate on the Iran US side. So Saudi Arabia probably feels pretty isolated, which means they're going to be reaching out for what some may consider to be unconventional friends, probably because they have to. And that's, that's how states have to behave if they want to survive and want to feel secure. That's what we're going to be seeing.

• 27:12Speaker 05

  Well, Dee, just so Dee doesn't have an aneurysm right now, I'm giving a warning. But, you know, there is Sencon did broker the meeting, and there's been contacts in the past between the Saudis and Israelis. And the Israelis have been providing intelligence to the Saudis. Dee, are you okay there? I don't want you to get upset.

• 27:26Speaker 06

  Yeah, no, I'm totally fine. But what about like, I wanted to mention, like, what about like negotiating and recognizing Jelani in Syria, who we fought and was in an Iraqi jail?

• 27:39Speaker 06

  Explain to me.

• 27:40Speaker 05

  But he but he changed his stripes completely.

• 27:42Speaker 06

  Okay, that's why. All right. So my one big question, and Mick, I'm sorry if you want to go ahead.

• 27:48Speaker 07

  No, I was going to agree with both what Andy and Jonathan said. As far as talking directly to terrorist organizations, I think I would use Man Mark's old organization. I think there's reason to have dialogue. I don't know you want to dignify it with the normal diplomacy, but we don't have any of that now. Most of our diplomacy is done by special envoys that say they don't have any experience in diplomacy, right? So, but I mean, obviously, Director Burns was was one of the main negotiators with Hamas on Gaza. I think that happens a lot more. That's just public. So I don't have a problem with it. And then, of course, the Biden administration delisted him as a terrorist organization,

• 28:32Speaker 07

  maybe so they could talk to him. So I think there's reasons to talk to him. But to Andy's point, just because we can, doesn't mean we should shift alliances, right? Talking to him is one thing, but.

• 28:43Speaker 05

  Not in practice, right?

• 28:45Speaker 07

  Right. I mean, and as soon as it's not in our interest, we're gonna throw away the ceasefire agreement with the Houthis. They know it. The only reason why we're highlighting it now is because we don't want the Bab al-Burayh to be closed. That's it.

• 28:59Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 28:59Speaker 07

  Right?

• 28:59Speaker 06

  I have another thing to point out also, like, our Kurdish allies that we've had for decades that you guys have worked close with, we're not supposed to say PKK, right? Is that not allowed? We're supposed to call it YPG or YPJ?

• 29:13Speaker 07

  YPG is different.

• 29:14Speaker 06

  It's like the the arbitrary picks that we decide who we're going to deal with, who we're not going to deal with. I mean, it's very murky, very gray, obviously, clearly. And and like you mentioned, Mick, about the the BAM. Let's say we do come to Saudi Arabia's defense, we start bombing the Houthi positions, the interceptors, the things that the Saudis can't do. And that's great. You know, it's, we go back to a year and a half ago when we were doing that. And, you know, the BAM is the insurance companies get skittish, traffic slows, and now we have the Hormuz de facto shut, BAM de facto shut. What happens in terms of repercussions of doing this? Do we have a plan after the fact that we're just gonna show face to keep up, I don't know what deterrence, because frankly, even

• 29:58Speaker 06

  if they did join up with China, right? You think China's gonna come and defend them? China likes just watching this shit go to go to the world, go to shit, because they're gonna eventually continue to rise up outside of the the South China Sea. So I don't really have a, oh, my question is, what what happens if we do come to Saudi's aid, we help them, we bomb Houthi targets, and then they start fucking with shipping in the BAM, and then everything goes up again, things get, what's the move? We send in troops? Like, what's the, what's, how do we fix this?

• 30:32Speaker 05

  Well, we keep, we, there's a sustained campaign we had against the Houthis and Trump quit. Do you remember what happened? It was, it was, it wasn't that, it was going along, it was taking a little, it was taking quite some time, but it was not unsuccessful. And then he just decided one day he's done.

• 30:49Speaker 05

  So the the idea that there's not a military solution to this, I mean, you know, in in the long term, of course, It's gotta be a diplomatic solution, but you know, uh, just, you can't just throw your hands up and say, okay, you know, an ally of ours was attacked. We're not going to do anything because it's going to be hard. Uh, and so, and again, I go, I go back to, I mean, I think, I don't know if I was on with you guys at the time, but do you guys remember when we just kind of gave up on the whole Houthi campaign? Like it was overnight. It was the craziest thing I've ever seen. Say, I were done.

• 31:15Speaker 06

  And were they worried about the sixty day thing?

• 31:18Speaker 05

  The shock sent them.

• 31:19Speaker 06

  Cause it went to like sixty days essentially, and then they stopped around like sixty one, sixty two. And you know, like the war powers or whatever, you have sixty days or something. I don't know if that had anything to do with it.

• 31:29Speaker 05

  They don't care.

• 31:30Speaker 06

  I don't know, but like, you know.

• 31:32Speaker 07

  I mean, it wasn't even that controversial, was it?

• 31:34Speaker 05

  No, it's, I mean, everyone, I mean, I think Democrats are supporting it too, which is.

• 31:38Speaker 06

  Yeah, people, it wasn't, yeah, it wasn't like super spicy in terms of it was going on and people who knew knew and, you know, but it wasn't as spicy as what's going on in Iran and stuff.

• 31:48Speaker 05

  I'm, I'm thinking, I don't know, but I, I'm thinking maybe the calculus has changed since yesterday for the, I'm talking about for the US government. Because who knows what motivated the president's decision to say no? Maybe, you know, maybe it was the fact that he was told, maybe it was military advice, maybe he was told that he'd have to move a carrier or amphibious group into the Red Sea. It seems unlikely, hey, but you know, as I've said, or relieving, relieving pressure on, on the straits. Or, or maybe, you know, the, the two in his mind, the Houthis fighting a war over Saudi territory, you know, in, in Yemen. Saudi, you know, proxy held territory. And so he felt Washington could stay out of it, but

• 32:34Speaker 05

  the dynamics have changed in the last day, right? Missiles on Riyadh and on Yambu, you know, I mean, that's, that's significant. I said, let's give one, let's do, let's do a quick roundtable. I think we're going to do something. Yeah. I, I just, I, I think that the, the attack on Riyadh was, was, was probably a, a bridge too far. But I, I would be very surprised if the US did not intervene at this point. And if we don't, we are really screwed in the Gulf with our allies. But what do you all think? Yes or no?

• 33:02Speaker 07

  So I, yes, I agree with that. And I'd also say this, I mean, we're talking about how it could take several weeks to fix the petrol light, right? From Abkhai to Yambu. But what's the, not doing it again? Right? They could keep this thing closed, period, right? There's, there's nothing, there's nothing like, okay, we fixed it. Then I'm not going to attack it. Of course they're going to attack it again. They have, they have shown zero willingness to stop the fight against Saudi Arabia. They won't even discuss it. So it's not just coming to the aid in an alliance, which is important. It's also how are we going to get that back open? And right now they're not going to allow it to be. So we got to mitigate their ability to keep that closed by striking or that's the, this is an economic war, basically, right?

• 33:44Speaker 07

  And we are having an effect on their economy. Their economy is going downhill. The only problem is it's affecting mostly Iranians, not the regime. Might get to a point and they are coming back and this is what they're doing. So it's also part of the war that we're in and we chose to be in. So I don't know that we can bow out of this part of it.

• 34:04Speaker 03

  Well, there's also been, I mentioned the IRGC guys visiting recently. There was also an advisory unit since July thirteenth in Yemen, an IRGC advisory unit advising the Houthis. So this has been kind of a long campaign that they've been building toward. And the Houthis typically, historically will do small probing attacks first to see how does Saudi Arabia respond? How does the US respond? And if they determine that the response is low enough, they'll then escalate. And they, they do this very frequently and it appears that they're doing this right now. They're ratcheting slowly. And the really important thing here is if Iranian advisors are there on the ground advising them, not only on target selection, on weapons use and so on. That means that Iranian strategy is also there, right? So Iran's strategy is important to look at. What is Iran's strategy?

• 34:46Speaker 03

  It's to crank up activity leading up to the US elections and the Israeli elections. And so we still have a month for Israel and two months for the United States. That means that what we're seeing this week is probably less than what we're going to see in the next few weeks. It's just very likely that this will, this will not decrease. It will increase. So the US response will probably be forced. There will be a forced hand here. And the question is, is Trump going to resist that attempt? Or is he going to give in and then do something, which is exactly what the regime in Iran wants and probably exactly what the Houthis want to. So that's something to look out for.

• 35:20Speaker 05

  So what do you think? Yeah, Mark's right. You're saying we will act, Jonathan?

• 35:24Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think so.

• 35:26Speaker 05

  Yeah, no, I, I think absolutely we'll, we'll act. I mean, you know, I, first of all, in the rationale, I totally agree with, with Mick that

• 35:37Speaker 05

  just because, you know, Ramco's got pretty good at, at, at mending facilities, but the Houthis can do it again and keep doing it. And I, and again, I want to point out that since twenty twenty two, the Saudis have been de-escalating, right?

• 35:52Speaker 05

  Yes, they still have a presence in Yemen, but it's, but they, they have not been, they haven't been on the offensive then, right? And, and so the difficult position they're in right now is they don't, it's not as though the, the Houthis are saying, hey, we're going to keep, we're going to keep butchering your oil supply until you do X, right? I mean, they're just going to do it anyway. It's almost as though they're on revenge mode or they are being programmed indeed by Tehran. And the only way to stop them is arguably to take military action, not arguably, I mean, I believe that. And I think if you look at the indicators, uh, you know, Trump cutting short his Camp David weekend, CNN, who's that guy we had on? Alex, Alex Blitz. Alex, yeah.

• 36:36Speaker 05

  Saying, you know, he, he's saying on CNN that Camp David meeting was held to deliberate and review Yemen's strike options. Yeah, yeah. And, and so Trump cuts that short, Hegseth, Hegseth left the Texas A and M game to return to Washington, right? And then, uh, you know, and there was a delegation in Copenhagen that was recalled too, right? And then there's embassy warnings throughout the region. Embassy warnings, yeah. Yeah, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Jordan, Bahrain, Bahrain, UAE. And, and then, you know, Trump, I mean, you can't, I mean, I, I get it. You can never tell what Trump's going to decide from his words, but he did. You know, he did make that announcement to Axios, I have the big decision coming up, right?

• 37:20Speaker 05

  Yes, he said things like that. And then the result has been nothing but flatulence. But, uh, you know, he's kind of like

• 37:29Speaker 05

  that's himself a little bit into a, a corner here. I, if I was a betting man, yeah, I, I would say there is something on the way. D, one last thing, I, back, back in the day, years ago, when the Houthis first came to power, I was in Sinat, the embassy and some of the case officers, some of the US embassy diplomats, let me rephrase that, came back from being out and, uh, and they, they said there were some, so this, this group, the Houthis that were setting up checkpoints. It was a little bit, it was a little tough because they were hindering movement, but they brought back a poster. I had a fricking Houthi poster and I've lost it.

• 38:01Speaker 05

  It was a, it was an actual death to America, death to Israel Houthi poster, a collector's item and I lost it. I can't, I can't believe, I remember when I retired, I had it. I could have taken it home. It's not classified and I can't find it now. And I mean, I, I would have just, you know, that would have been a, a, a cool little prop for all these, these things. Yeah, I, I'd say the Marine Corps could learn, the US Marine Corps could learn from the Houthis. You know, when it comes to force design twenty thirty, the plan to set up defensive positions in the first island chain, right? It's South China Sea and, and block the China's, block in the Chinese fleet, right? By use of, of land-based ship, the shortest ship missiles.

• 38:43Speaker 05

  Okay, that, that was, that's the plan for the Marine Corps in a war against China. And that's what all force design is about in the Marine Corps, you know, getting rid of tanks, all these emotional decisions, getting rid of artillery. It's to be able to prepare the Marine Corps for that mission. Well, the Houthis are already doing it. They're already, you know, closing waterways by the use of missiles. Again, I'm not, you know, I'm not a Houthi apologist. I'm just saying we've underestimated them and we continue to underestimate them. They're, they're sharp, they're technologically savvy, they're very tough. Now we've seen they're diplomatically adept, or maybe they, they may have overplayed their hand by hitting Riyadh and Yambu yesterday. We'll see.

• 39:27Speaker 05

  Yeah, I mean. Just told Fox News, I'm just looking here that, uh, that the Houthis have promised not to attack any, any US interests. So, you know, everything's going to be fine. So who knows? Yeah.

• 39:38Speaker 07

  Well, the pipeline is the US interest.

• 39:41Speaker 05

  The Houthis, the Houthis.

• 39:42Speaker 07

  The pipeline is in the US interest.

• 39:44Speaker 05

  The Houthis, but the Houthis understand Trump, you know, they, they absolutely. I mean, Trump loved being able to say they reached out to us and asked us not to attack, you know? I mean, it's that, they understand this personal gesture of being, of reaching out going, I mean, who'd have thought them, they would do that, but they did. Hey, don't, don't attack us and you know, we've blah, blah, blah. And it worked. Well, we'll see. I mean, we'll tell in, in the next day or so, right? If we see a carrier or amphibious group, I mean, I wouldn't think an amphibious group, but carrier moving away from, you know, Hormuz

• 40:21Speaker 05

  into the Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden, or if we see not us, but all these nerds on Twitter, you know, B two, B fifty two activity at Diego Garcia or, or lower tankers and more tankers and ISR aircraft. Can we, can we not hit Houthi targets right now with the, the force disposition? That was a question I had for you. Guys, can't we do it anyhow? Yeah, I would think so. Absolutely. We're tankers. Yeah. You don't even need.

• 40:46Speaker 03

  Not only that, you've got six fleet vessels that you could chop right through Suez down there into the Red Sea. Plus, Jordan and Akaba is exactly the location where these amphibious readiness groups are able to preposition and do continuous operation.

• 40:57Speaker 05

  Would we need to see anything, though? Could they just do it on a moment's notice?

• 41:01Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 41:02Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 41:02Speaker 03

  Because of Djibouti.

• 41:03Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 41:06Speaker 07

  Thursday is supposed to be the day, decision day is what.

• 41:09Speaker 06

  Thursday?

• 41:12Speaker 06

  So my question is, let's say we do do this again, and they close the ban de facto and Hormuz is shut de facto. And we keep bombing and nothing changes and we burn more interceptors. And we're still in the same place two weeks from now. Are we going to start talking about a couple hundred thousand troops going into Yemen?

• 41:30Speaker 05

  No, no.

• 41:30Speaker 06

  So how do we fix it? What's, what's?

• 41:33Speaker 05

  Increase the economic pressure. I mean.

• 41:35Speaker 07

  That's really it. It's not necessarily a thing.

• 41:37Speaker 05

  That's one thing that's been working.

• 41:39Speaker 07

  It is working.

• 41:40Speaker 06

  Sure. I talk, I remember economic D day. I was big and flashy and percent was there looking like a mortician talking about it and we're not being hard on China when it comes to Iran, frankly, on these secondary sanctions and this economic D day. So are we really going to put the sanctions on and really make it hurt economically or we're going to say we will?

• 41:59Speaker 07

  He signed the bill. He signed the Lindsey Graham bill, which was not just Russia, it's also Iran. Right?

• 42:07Speaker 06

  So you think we are going to put the squeeze on China?

• 42:09Speaker 07

  That's a good question because cheese is landing on the 23rd, meetings on the 24th. We're currently in a somewhat of a economic ceasefire, but that ends November 10th, I believe. All the Marine Corps birthday, but there's, I mean, there's a whole lot of stuff they're going to be talking about. This is going to be front and center. They get most of Iran and my understanding is oil is sold to China. They could have a major impact on Iran's perspective and, you know, particularly when it comes to the economic aspect of the conflict. Generally speaking, China hasn't been willing to participate, so we'll have to see. But right now, I agree, this is the path forward, but there is no like perfect path for.

• 42:55Speaker 07

  Like, none of this is going to work immediately if it works, especially the economic part to this. The regime is perfectly willing to endure for the people to endure all the pain and them to survive this. It's what they thrive on. It's essentially, as soon as they have the opportunity, they, they use it as their kind of boogeyman, us. But it's going to have an impact over time and hopefully enough of an impact to get them to shift. Because this week, when I was talking on some of the foreign stuff, Iran kept highlighting that they're willing to negotiate. But then at the end of that statement, they said, after the US pays us $300 billion in restoration, unfreezes all our assets, stops all the sanctions and closes the blockade, then we'll negotiate on a nuclear agreement.

• 43:40Speaker 07

  By that time.

• 43:42Speaker 05

  They want to go back to that MOU, which.

• 43:43Speaker 07

  They want to go back to the MOU, which means like, if the US gave you all that stuff, what would be the incentive to enter and do a new nuclear agreement? It's, it's, it's basically, I think they're actually fairly comfortable as they could be in the current situation, which is not good for us.

• 44:00Speaker 06

  Yeah, I mean, we would love to go back to the JCPOA and that's not going to happen. Iran's going to get a nuclear weapon. They'd be stupid not to. For regime security, if you were the Ayatollah or an IRGC guy, big, I want to nuke too because they won't fuck with me.

• 44:16Speaker 05

  See, you are our Ayatollah.

• 44:18Speaker 06

  I know. That's what I like to be called. Good.

• 44:19Speaker 05

  You know, we, you know, we actually failed it. We, so we, we kind of blew our wad. We spent 50 minutes on this issue, but I, and I don't, I'm going to introduce one other issue on this because I just, I've been dying to do it. Sorry. The triumphal arch. How can we not talk about Trump's true social post that the triumphal arch is going to have sniper and drone capability now? And that's why it has to be approved. And there's silence after I said anything.

• 44:42Speaker 06

  It's just, I, I don't want to, I don't want to go on a rant. You're going to make me go on a rant and I don't want to do that. Like, I want this to be an informed discussion and it's just the guy's out to fucking lunch. Like, what are we talking about? And it's a sad, it's scary because he's the president of the United States. He's a nuclear codes. He brought us into Iran. He's doing all this shit. So it's just like the, the, the arch being like having snipers, that's like kind of like normal for him, like a weird ass bullshit thing to say like that.

• 45:12Speaker 05

  Let's see.

• 45:12Speaker 06

  That's what I thought.

• 45:13Speaker 05

  Policy folks at Fox News can respond to this and have some kind of coherent argument.

• 45:17Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 45:18Speaker 03

  Well, the reason they're using this is because they know that the DC circuit injunction was turned off because the ballroom security issue was what got the ballroom to be continuing. So they're, they're already learning from that fiasco and putting the security issue front and center on the arch. So that there can be no injunction for whichever group, you know, tries to put an injunction on it. So they're, they're smart about that. They understand if you want to get through the DC circuit, just say security and we'll be able to build it. Because they know there's going to be litigation to try to stop it.

• 45:49Speaker 07

  How long is it going to take to build?

• 45:52Speaker 05

  They're going to tear this shit down in six seconds. In 28.

• 45:56Speaker 07

  I think the people that are opposed to it are actually people that expect to go into Arlington.

• 46:02Speaker 05

  Of course. I mean, there's, there's like, there's really serious reasons this is a horrible idea, which has to do with respect for Arlington National Cemetery and, and, you know.

• 46:11Speaker 07

  Yeah, I think it's a vet group that's, you know, either has people buried in Arlington or going to be there themselves.

• 46:18Speaker 06

  And, and they're going to take space away from Arlington?

• 46:22Speaker 07

  No, I mean, I don't, I don't know enough to.

• 46:25Speaker 05

  It's, I mean, it's the, the view of it. There's, I mean, it's just.

• 46:27Speaker 07

  The views, yeah. Mark's it.

• 46:29Speaker 06

  No, yeah, we need, we need an ode to Trump, bro, instead of our, instead of our actual fucking heroes. What are we, what are we doing, bro? What are we doing? You guys are going to be crazy. Andy, please go.

• 46:39Speaker 05

  Yeah, no, I was just saying the whole sniper drone thing. It is, I think, I mean, it's heading towards, if you reclassify it as a military facility, it gets, it, it gets its way around the approvals problem, right? Because a military construction project is probably going to face a, a more favorable review path than a commemorative monument that's, that looks like it's a, you know, it has political. We just, we just look so stupid. It is mind boggling. And it could open and it opens military funding lines, right?

• 47:12Speaker 03

  It's probably already Milcon money from last FY that they could spend to build it without getting congressional approval.

• 47:17Speaker 05

  Yeah, by saying it's for the military, yeah.

• 47:22Speaker 05

  I mean, I agree, a drone and sniper complex overlooking Arlington National Cemetery, it's a hard thing to defend, but. Those, by the way, who are we defending against? The insurrectionists from Roslyn? From, you know, McLean in Vienna who are coming across the Potomac? I mean, it's absurd. No, I mean, it's a hard thing to, to defend as far as, as justification, right? Yeah. Right, right.

• 47:46Speaker 07

  We know what you meant.

• 47:47Speaker 05

  Yeah, right.

• 47:50Speaker 05

  Well, your defense of DC against small drones is a real gap.

• 47:56Speaker 05

  Don't do this.

• 47:57Speaker 06

  Playing devil's advocate.

• 47:59Speaker 05

  I mean, yeah, I mean, that's, you know, we're going to talk about Europe, right? Incidents in Europe, just make that point.

• 48:04Speaker 07

  Europe seems to be getting ready.

• 48:06Speaker 05

  But, but whether a, you know, 250 foot ceremonial arch is the right place to put counter drone capability, that's, that's another matter. And, and there's nobody on the military and the uniform side who's been making, you know, making that request.

• 48:23Speaker 05

  Although Trump did say that the military did request this, of course. Which never happened in anyone's real world.

• 48:31Speaker 06

  Yeah, let's talk a little bit about Europe. We see what's going on. There's chirps going on everywhere. People are freaking out. You did have a week ago, Ukrainian train was hit with, or close to where Petraeus was on it. There was Boris Johnson was on it. There were a ton of NSAs from different European countries on it. Couple that with.

• 48:49Speaker 05

  On there, two of our former colleagues.

• 48:52Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 48:53Speaker 07

  Who was on there?

• 48:54Speaker 05

  Ralph and Glenn, Glenn Corning, Ralph Goff.

• 48:56Speaker 07

  Oh, no kidding?

• 48:57Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 48:58Speaker 07

  I want to get Ralph out to the summit.

• 49:01Speaker 06

  Yeah, so we also saw this other report about like the, like Macron basically briefing like the presidential candidates and stuff like that with all the heads of their DGSE and the rest of them. And I think one of the candidates came out and was like, I have vertigo from this meeting. It's like, you're supposed to be the president? When you're like falling to pieces on Twitter after you get a briefing like this? Like basically everyone's trying to build, you know, get ready for a possible Russian incursion into NATO territory, at least probing what Article Five would look like. What are your guys' thoughts? Even Switzerland too, that was another one. Big neutral country. They brought out something talking about, we need to up our defense and be ready for this. So Andy, let's go with you. Like, what, what are your thoughts on this?

• 49:43Speaker 05

  So I mean, to step back, there, there's, there's been a couple of incidents, four incidents actually in the last couple of months. And you mentioned the Russian drone strike on a passenger train near the Polish border. And I've been on that train many times. Clearly I wasn't important enough target to target. But then remember to the, in August, there was that drone that, that smashed into a Ukrainian cargo aircraft, civilian cargo aircraft in Leipzig, Leipzig airport, didn't detonate. It had explosives in it, but it fortunately didn't detonate. NATO shot down a drone over Lithuania a week or so ago and then.

• 50:28Speaker 05

  And then going back to last year, November, December, there was a case of sabotage on the Warsaw in Poland, on the Warsaw-Lublin Railway that was traced back to the Russians. And then, you know, in, I keep forgetting his name, the Secretary General of the, I mean NATO, the NATO guy, Ruta. Ruta. Ruta. Ruta. Ruta. He said, I mean, he made the comment Putin's acting out of desperation because he's facing, I mean, he's facing catastrophic, we've talked about this, casualties. The point is, if you, if you're watching the figures that Rusi is producing, that's the Royal

• 51:11Speaker 05

  United Service Institute, it's a reputable UK think tank. The Russians, even if they step up maximum mobilization, cannot keep pace with casualties right now. So hence the, you know, so what, what is Putin going to do to further the war? And the argument is he's going to widen the war, all right? That's kind of what Rutic was, was hinting at. And then in Finland, I keep forgetting these guys' names, Stube, someone help me out there, Defence Secretary there, said, you know, citizens should prepare mentally for something to happen. And then Donald Trusk in Poland said, there's a real risk that Russian drones or missiles

• 51:54Speaker 05

  were into NATO territory, and that Russia will claim that it was an accident. And it sounded like he was, he was quoting from an intelligence report anticipating that's going to happen across the poles, along with the Baltic States, when it comes to intelligence. I'm sure, I mean, I don't need to tell the crowd here, I'm normally right on it. And then the meeting on the 19th, Macron, and all he said in that meeting was, you know, he, he just, it was a wake-up call, right? He just said the Russian hybrid threat has intensified. So, you know, none of this is news. And you saw the Estonian, the head of the Estonian Intelligence Service saying they think that the plan is to take all these dudes who come back from Ukraine, a lot of very sick people even before they were put into the Russian army, and now they're running

• 52:39Speaker 05

  around causing mayhem in Russia. He thinks that idea is to just push them across the border into the EU and have them do, start just causing mayhem. And so all of these things together, you know, I don't, it's not Chicken Little stuff. I mean, Putin must be reaching a point of desperation. The war's not going well for him. And, and he's, he wants to absolutely follow the, the path of taking it to NATO and the worst thing he could possibly do from the point of view of his own survival is to agree to some kind of ceasefire now, and he knows it. And so I think the, the European leaders, what they, what they're worried about are

• 53:23Speaker 05

  false flag attacks, right? Using, for instance, captured Ukrainian drones, continuous deniable hybrid strikes throughout Europe. And that, that's the thing, a lot of these are deniable. The Russians are no longer, well, they, they never were, but they, they're getting smarter about using proxies. If you look at who's carrying out a lot of these attacks, it's local nationals recruited by, you know, the GRU, whoever it is. It's not like the attack in Salisbury 10 years ago where it was actual GRU guys. And then they're worried about a limited ground grab, right? Somewhere in the, in the Baltics, like the, you know, the Suiki Gap. And it's, and, you know, none of this sounds too alarmist when you look at what the Russians have done before.

• 54:05Speaker 05

  Especially now, when you, the US is focused on the war with Iran.

• 54:11Speaker 06

  And you have Trump, who is not really keen on.

• 54:14Speaker 05

  He doesn't, yeah. You know, they, he, he seems to be, Russia seems to be least of his concerns. I mean, Canada's a bigger threat in his eyes.

• 54:27Speaker 07

  It looks like we might be bringing up to 40,000 troops out of Europe.

• 54:31Speaker 05

  Yeah. Oh, that was the other thing, yeah.

• 54:33Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 54:33Speaker 05

  Yeah, it's not a violation of the.

• 54:36Speaker 06

  The NDAA, it is, but nobody cares. But they don't, that's the thing. So the, the retort on that is they're not, they can't do this, but they don't care. I mean, that's the funny part is that they seem to get around all this stuff all the time.

• 54:47Speaker 07

  It is a violation of the NDAA.

• 54:49Speaker 06

  But, you know, that's, that's for. This administration is already in contempt of Congress. I, just for this, this all, it was previous administrations who actually followed the rules on stuff. So we'll see. But one quick thing on, on, a couple on the Europe and kind of all the flutter of Europe. First of all, Russia is a terrorist state. What they've been doing is, is so incredibly brazen. There could have been mass casualty incidents, certainly in Germany. And so, you know, I think Europe is finally waking up. One of the things that, that was kind of interesting is in getting into the weeds a little bit is trying to figure out, the US was briefing some type of intelligence to European partners, the Europeans were collecting on their own as well, and it got everyone in a bit of a tizzy. As I kind of poked around, not with our old shop, because I don't do that, but I poked

• 55:30Speaker 06

  around with contacts in European services, it seems to be not as kind of alarmist and specific like a move on the Baltics that everyone thought would occur. It's more of kind of the same of this, and I wouldn't even call it hybrid warfare, it's terrorism. And so, and, and it's also with these briefings, they're trying to get European countries to kind of rally around the flag on this a bit. So it's, I, you know, I don't really, someone from a, you know, very prominent European service said, look, it's not, it's, this is not worst-case dire scenario. And some, and social media is treating it as such, but it's still incredibly serious because Russia's running around blowing shit up all over Europe. And, and the idea is what do you do about that? You know, the Germans decide to close a consulate, a Russian consulate somewhere, and, you know, declare people PNG, persona non grata.

• 56:14Speaker 06

  None of this stuff works in the past. They've got to do things more. And the most interesting part of this is the French came out, because one of the arguments a lot of us has made is if you don't have a kinetic response to the Russians, they don't, they don't really listen. The famous Der Azur incident in, in Syria in 2018, Jim Mattis, former Secretary of Defence, basically, you know, ordered the, the destruction of several hundred Wagner Group forces by US Special Operations units, and that got the Russians' attention. And the French came out just today and said, well, we are actually responding kinetically to the Russians. And so that caught everyone's attention. And I think what that has to do is the amount of assistance the French were providing to Ukrainians, because, my final point on this, the way to do this is to send more Russians home in body bags in Ukraine. The way to get them to stop doing shit in Europe is to kill more Russians, period.

• 56:59Speaker 06

  And you, and you say that and people freak out a little bit, but that's the only language that, in my view, they understand.

• 57:06Speaker 07

  Yeah, I mean, I hope that what I'm hearing from my European friends and what I'm seeing on social media as far as preparation in Europe is all true. I hope it's all true. If it's not, it should be, right? The fact, the best way to fight bullies is to be ready to fight the bullies. It's not to hide and hope the bully doesn't find you. The bully knows where you are, and they've already shown an inclination to do it. They invaded Ukraine. So I think Europe is doing the right things in this regard. And once they get to a point, I think, you know, to use what I used to tell my boxers is kind of shift to the front foot. And by that, I mean, they need to start putting hard lines for Russia in Ukraine. Like, they're not going to let Russia take Kiev, period.

• 57:50Speaker 07

  They don't need to ask permission. They could start having hard lines, or Europe will get involved. That's what I'm saying. Right? They, they need to start basically letting Russia know they can't win. They're never going to accept it, and they're going to be, maybe they keep it somewhat ambiguous, but they need to be, I think, very clear on that. And if they're struck, they need to strike, they need to already have decided this, right? So it's not a decision that's done at the, in the crisis. They need to decide how they're going to respond to Russia if there's an incursion or et cetera. And the United States, it's in our own interest, obviously, not to withdraw forces from Europe. We're there, it gives us our platform to project power around the world, to include the Middle East. And so we need to back them up.

• 58:35Speaker 07

  And then I agree, the best way to, to dissuade Putin from launching another front is to make it so costly in Ukraine right now. And that's increasing the support to the Ukrainians, by all of us, but especially Europe. They're basically fighting the enemy that they expect to fight. It's not even altruistic or ethical, even though there's nothing wrong with that. It is your own interest. If, if you think they're actually going to attack you, then you want to be the weakest they can possibly be by the time.

• 59:01Speaker 06

  Hack it, I feel like you got something to say. You always have something to say.

• 59:04Speaker 03

  Well, I'm listening to you guys talking about, you know, there's the issue in the Middle East, then there's the issues in Europe, and we're trying to divide our attention as a nation between those two issues. And there's a lot of challenge with the NDAA, like violating a congressional law about how forces should be distributed, man-trained and equipped and paid in Europe, as far as the 40,000 troops we're talking about. While all this is going on, North Korea just launched ballistic missiles eastward out of North Korea into the ocean toward Japan. And that's really critical because that was a decision, a strategic level decision that North Korea made to do that weapons test right now, because they know that our attention is divided right now between the Middle East and Europe. This is the perfect opportunity to test more controversial weapons, right?

• 59:47Speaker 03

  Not just ballistic missiles, but also do more weapons tests using banned weapons, underground weapons tests, the clear violation of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty right now that they're doing, because the US is so distracted, so divided, our military is not working in concert the way it's designed to do right now. And even back when the US was very well-integrated, the military was very well-integrated worldwide, you know, under the Global Force Management System that was operating properly, our military was only designed to fight in two fronts at the same time. You could only have two ongoing conflicts at once. And that was when we were at our prime. Right now, we are not. North Korea sees that, and they're saying, great time to go test some nuclear weapons delivery vehicles against Japan, against South Korea, with no one saying anything on the US side.

• 1:00:32Speaker 03

  And that's, that's extremely concerning as well.

• 1:00:35Speaker 06

  John, I got a question. It's just in response or partly in response of the fact that we like cut our training exercises short with South Korea like maybe a month ago and we moved the carrier out to bring it to the Persian Gulf.

• 1:00:49Speaker 03

  Absolutely. Seventh Fleet right now is completely denuded of its most important assets, which is the aircraft carrier strike group that's supposed to be there all the time because of our agreement with Japan. Because, I mean, in Japan's military name, it's the Japanese Maritime Defense Force because they're not allowed by the post-World War II structure to have an offensive military capability. That's why the US is in Japan permanently because we are their offensive military capability. And as you've looked in the past few years, you see Japan's government slowly but surely introducing things that are offensive in nature to their military without actually saying that, which is a huge, huge sea change in Japanese maritime defense strategy and air defense strategy over the last 70 years. That is a concern. That's a reaction to them not believing the

• 1:01:33Speaker 03

  US is going to be there to defend them because the US is not there right now to defend them. That's a big question in Japanese media is, is the US going to help us if China or North Korea becomes a problem for Japan, which was almost unthinkable even five years ago, right? South Korea too. If we just saw the media last week or two weeks ago, Trump and North Korea apparently are getting closer and closer while the US is refusing to help South Korea. Seoul is right across the border from North Korea. It's very close to the border. It's under the weapons engagement zone of the shortest range stuff that North Korea has. It is completely at risk. So of course, there's going to be a concern of escalation for South Korea, Japan, and then also for the Philippines, which has an enhanced defense cooperation agree with the United States. We have forces also persistently in the Philippines,

• 1:02:18Speaker 03

  persistently in Taiwan, and so on. Even though in Taiwan, we're, you know, in civilian clothes and things like that, doing advisor missions out of the training missions, we call them, out of the American Institute. So all this is happening at the same time. North Korea sees this. They say the US is not going to be there. And those states also say the same thing. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, they're all saying right now, the US probably won't be there. We have to defend ourselves and work together. Which is again, while you'll see, you'll see some unusual or unexpected alliances forming, maybe even some of these states reaching out to China to build closer relations with China in a way that would be unthinkable five or 10 years ago because China was the enemy to them and still is. But the US isn't there to offshore balance against that threat.

• 1:02:58Speaker 05

  Hey, Dee, before we go.

• 1:02:59Speaker 06

  Sure.

• 1:03:01Speaker 05

  I think we need to talk about, we can do it briefly, but great news, right? Ukraine launched over a thousand drones across Russia, right? Plus, here's a key thing. So it's a thousand drones plus cruise and ballistic missiles. And I mean, this has been an accelerating campaign, right? Focused, focused on all kinds of aspects of Russian infrastructure, but mainly on oil. And you think about it, I mean, no other country has the ability to do that except Ukraine all at once. And the interesting thing about this is they used, you know, I said, to make the air defense more complicated, they used cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, their own, by the way, they used, there's a Flamingo cruise

• 1:03:44Speaker 05

  missiles and something as a Pelican, Pelican seven, it's ballistic missile, right? With, I mean, it's relatively short range, 350 kilometers, but enough range, plus these long-range strike, strike drones. And they hit. So the other thing, remarkably accurate. Okay, so two reports of, and who knows, I mean, but reports of two civilians killed, 20 injured. I mean, every time the Russians hit Kiev, I mean, that would be a light night, an extremely light night. Of course, the Russians aren't going after military targets, but, but they, you know, they, they hit the massive oil refinery, it's a Gazprom oil refinery in Moscow. They

• 1:04:29Speaker 05

  hit a thermal power plant and, and caused huge amount of consternation. A lot of this is psychological, I mean, over Moscow, right?

• 1:04:36Speaker 06

  During the, during the elections, like during their Duma parliamentary elections.

• 1:04:42Speaker 05

  Yeah, and that's a great point, you know. So this was, I don't mean to bore you guys, but in 1942, right? Eighty-four years ago, the Brits launched a thousand, the first thousand bomber range against German cities. And, and they scrapped, they, they took training squadrons, they took, you know, they, they took every single type of airframe, bomber airframe they could, and they put it in the air. And it was intended, you know, obviously it was a message to the Germans, but it was a message to the United States too. We're not on the ropes. You know, we're, we're fighting back and we're doing well. And it was a message to, to, you know, the people in the UK. It was a personal message from

• 1:05:26Speaker 05

  Bomber Harris, who headed Bomber Command, to Churchill to say, hey, we can win the war just from the air, which of course, not the case. But in this case, you know, I mean, undoubtedly, the Ukrainians were, they're sending a message to all of those audiences, the adversary, Europe, NATO, the United States, you know, hey, we're doing this by ourselves. Look at this. All of these assets are ours. None of you can do that. We can't. I mean, we're the most powerful military nation. We can't launch a thousand drone raid. So I think, you know, that's, I mean, it was historical, not widely reported because of all the other churnage going on in the Middle East.

• 1:06:04Speaker 06

  Andy, quick point on this, which is really interesting, is that, so the Ukrainians do require our assistance on the targeting packages. So they do have this indigenous capability. So we are helping them. It's been widely reported in the open source. The US intelligence community is helping them with these specific targeting, targeting packages. And this is great. But what then happens is Trump then complains about the targeting. So we have, we have administration that doesn't talk with the same voice because Trump then talks to the Ukrainians and says, stop hitting those targets because he doesn't like the effects on the international energy markets. And so there, there's something about this, which is kind of odd. You kind of scratch your head. I think it's indicative of the administration, which does not have a correct national security process, but the Ukrainians using our targeting packages, hitting righteous targets, and then Trump

• 1:06:49Speaker 06

  bitches about it later on. But now, thankfully, the Ukrainians just keep on doing it. But I always, I always think back just to, to kind of, you know, when normal governments work, is that there is a coordinated process amongst an inner agency led by a White House that has a specific plan. That certainly is not happening here, but God bless them doing this. The, the, the videos of this strike yesterday are extraordinary. It looks like fricking Armageddon. It was awesome. Sorry, that's the way we kind of think here, but it was pretty cool. You gonna say that on MS Now tomorrow? I'll say, I mean, I say it all the time. I've been a total hawk on this. Just making sure. Yeah. I don't know if I'm on tomorrow. Trying to get back on. I was on vacation. They forgot about me. I gotta get back into the swing of things.

• 1:07:31Speaker 06

  Yeah. So there's going to be a lot to talk about in the next week, for sure. I mean, everyone's monitoring the situation as usual. I think we could wrap up. I want everyone to go and check out the links in the description for John's book, Andy's book, Mark's books, Mick Mulroy's Security Summit coming up, Mick Mulroy's new pod, Plight Stoic, Pub on the Porch, Plight Stoicism. Lot happening. If you guys want to follow any of these guys, those links are in the description and go to our Patreon, patreon.com/the Team House, ad-free episodes for both Team House and Izan, and you get them early and you help support the show. Guys, a pleasure as always. Thank you.

• 1:08:09Speaker 05

  Bye, everyone. Thanks, James.

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• 1:19:53Speaker 02

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval. 911, what's your emergency?

• 1:20:28Speaker 02

  Please help us, they're everywhere. We think they're murder hornets.

• 1:20:32Speaker 01

  911 Nashville returns.

• 1:20:35Speaker 04

  What's a homicide detective doing here?

• 1:20:37Speaker 01

  Three bodies on the ground. With emergencies of biblical proportions.

• 1:20:41Speaker 04

  I will send swarms upon you and upon your people. That's one of the plagues for Bible. And somebody's unleashing them on Nashville.

• 1:20:48Speaker 01

  Bryan Phillippeach, 911 Nashville. All new Thursdays on ABC, next day on Hulu.

• 1:21:00Speaker 02

  Hey guys, Lady Luck here. I just love the fall season. Chris Mornings, pumpkin spice latte, and it's the best time to cozy up and play Spin Quest. They have over a thousand different slots in all my favorite casino-style games, and they're running a deal for all new players. A $30 coin package for just $10. So this fall, grab your favorite blanket, visit Spinquest.com, and download the app today.

• 1:21:25Speaker 01

  Spinquest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit Spinquest.com for more details.

• 1:21:30Speaker 04

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:21:59Speaker 02

  911, what's your emergency? Please help us, they're everywhere! We think they're murder wantons.

• 1:22:07Speaker 01

  911 Nashville returns.

• 1:22:09Speaker 00

  There's a homicide detective down here. Three bodies on the ground.

• 1:22:12Speaker 01

  With emergencies of biblical proportions. All sins swarms upon you and upon your people. That's one of the plagues for Bible. And somebody's unleashing them on Nashville. Bryan Phillippeach, 911 Nashville. All new Thursdays on ABC, next day on Hulu.

• 1:22:35Speaker 00

  Forget whatever plans you have this weekend because you're staying at home and playing on Spin Quest. And there's never been a better time to sign up than right now. New users get $30 coin packs for just $10. All the table games you love, with hundreds of slot games and real cash prizes. That's at Spinquest.com. S-P-I-N-Q-U-E-S-T.com.

• 1:22:57Speaker 01

  Spinquest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit Spinquest.com for more details.

• 1:23:05Speaker 04

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:23:34Speaker 02

  911, what's your emergency?

• 1:23:37Speaker 02

  Please help us, they're everywhere! We think they're murder wantons.

• 1:23:41Speaker 01

  911 Nashville returns.

• 1:23:44Speaker 00

  There's a homicide detective down here. Three bodies on the ground.

• 1:23:47Speaker 01

  With emergencies of biblical proportions.

• 1:23:49Speaker 00

  All sins swarms upon you and upon your people. That's one of the plagues for Bible. And somebody's unleashing them on Nashville.

• 1:23:57Speaker 01

  Bryan Phillippeach, 911 Nashville. All new Thursdays on ABC, next day on Hulu.

• 1:24:08Speaker 02

  Hey guys, Lady Luck here. I just love the fall season. Chris Mornings, pumpkin spice latte, and it's the best time to cozy up and play Spin Quest. They have over a thousand different slots in all my favorite casino-style games, and they're running a deal for all new players. A $30 coin package for just $10. So this fall, grab your favorite blanket, visit Spinquest.com, and download the app today.

• 1:24:33Speaker 01

  Spinquest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit Spinquest.com for more details.

• 1:24:39Speaker 04

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:25:10Speaker 02

  911, what's your emergency? Please help us, they're everywhere! We think they're murder wantons.

• 1:25:17Speaker 01

  911 Nashville returns.

• 1:25:20Speaker 00

  There's a homicide detective down here. Three bodies on the ground.

• 1:25:23Speaker 01

  With emergencies of biblical proportions.

• 1:25:26Speaker 02

  All sins swarms upon you and upon your people. That's one of the plagues for Bible.

• 1:25:30Speaker 03

  And somebody's unleashing them on Nashville.

• 1:25:33Speaker 01

  Bryan Phillippeach, 911 Nashville. All new Thursdays on ABC, next day on Hulu.

• 1:25:39Speaker 03

  In business, there's the easy way with Staples or the hard way. Hard means... Jen, did you get the weekend specials menus from the printer by any chance?

• 1:25:46Speaker 02

  No, they said they'll be done on Monday.

• 1:25:47Speaker 03

  But they're weekend specials. Easy means Staples Same-Day Custom Printing, where same day means same day. Hard means...

• 1:25:54Speaker 02

  Our new brochures are back from the print place. So how do they look? Well, our logo is brown. But our logo isn't brown. It is now.

• 1:26:02Speaker 03

  Easy means custom prints, perfectly printed. Don't choose hard, choose Staples. That was Easy. Shop Staples online, in-store, or in the app.

• 1:26:10Speaker 00

  Forget whatever plans you have this weekend because you're staying at home and playing on Spin Quest. And there's never been a better time to sign up than right now. New users get $30 coin packs for just $10. All the table games you love, with hundreds of slot games and real cash prizes. That's at Spinquest.com. S-P-I-N-Q-U-E-S-T.com.

• 1:26:32Speaker 01

  Spinquest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit Spinquest.com for more details.

• 1:26:39Speaker 04

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:27:07Speaker 02

  You're halfway through your to-do list, iced matcha in hand, and the day's still not slowing down. Good skincare should keep up without overcomplicating things. Overuse of active ingredients can damage your skin's moisture barrier. New Aquaphor Hydrating Daily Lotion helps repair your skin's moisture barrier. It's lightweight and fast-absorbing on skin. Even though your afternoon's packed, your skin's moisture barrier is unbothered. Grab Aquaphor Hydrating Daily Lotion at your nearest retailer. There's before, and then, there's Aquaphor.

• 1:27:37Speaker 02

  In the next Rare Well Done, the Thrive team helps two people with CIDP tackle the tricky issue of friendship. They say the quiet part out loud. In the event my CIDP worsens, my friends might decide it's too much. Get nudged outside their comfort zone... I don't know if I want to. ...to forge stronger connections. It's the best thing that's ever happened to me, our friendship. To Rory. Watch Rory and Michelle take on the friendship factor on the next episode of Rare Well Done.