Pod Insights The Rest Is Politics 128. Local Elections: Who's the real winner? About this episode Was this a win for Starmer? Or should he be disappointed? What does this tell us about next year's general election?
Alastair and Rory have hit the emergency pod button - listen now to hear The Rest is Politics' analysis of the local elections.
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Transcript 5,549 words · 14 speakers
Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
0:04 Rory Stewart? This episode is brought to you by NordVPN.
0:06 Alastair Campbell? And I must thank NordVPN because on my Grand European Tour with Fiona, I was away from the Hawthorns for West Bromwich against Burnley, but I managed to watch it. There you go.
0:19 Rory Stewart? I actually had a NordVPN thank you. I was in the new Starbucks here in Crete. And of course, the thing flashed up, saying this is an unsecured public network. And I was able to go to my VPN. It was a little reminder of something we often forget when we're in all those cafes and things, which is actually genuinely, people can do all kinds of weird cyber attacks and spying if you don't have a virtual private network when you're sitting in that Starbucks.
0:42 Alastair Campbell? Well, I think, are you not really sort of proud of me that I managed to do this? Or should I say Fiona managed to do this?
0:49 Rory Stewart? I'm incredibly proud of you. That's a tech transformation. So to get the best discount off your NordVPN plan, go to nordvpn.com/restorspolitics. That's nordvpn.com/restorspolitics. And the link is in the episode description.
1:05 Speaker 02 So good, so good, so good. Nordstrom Rack is celebrating 125 years of Nordstrom with 125 of the best deals, up to 65% off in stores and online. They're only here while supplies last, so shop today. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack.
1:33 Alastair Campbell? Welcome on Friday for a special emergency Rest Is Politics podcast with me, Alastair Campbell.
1:41 Rory Stewart? And me, Rory Stewart. And rather weirdly, we pushed the emergency podcast button, but this date had been in the diary for quite a long time, hadn't it? We did sort of know the local elections were coming. It wasn't quite like one of our resignation emergency podcasts.
1:54 Alastair Campbell? No, but I think the reason why a lot of our listeners started to say, we'd like to hear what you think. Is because what always happens in the wake of any election, but particularly local elections, I think, is that the parties nationally have their narrative and they try to, dare I say, spin it in a way that is most conducive to their morale and their effectiveness, et cetera. And so I think it is one of those days where there's actually quite a lot of crap to cut through.
2:23 Rory Stewart? And actually, it's surprisingly difficult making sense of the whole thing, isn't it? So, local elections, just a quick explainer on local elections, people, these are elections happening for district councils or county councils, or sometimes unified councils up and down the country. Some of those council seats traditionally were independent, but increasingly, almost all the seats are contested between the different parties. And there's often quite a strong relationship between the way that people perform in the local council elections and the run-up to a general election. General elections, that's one thing they worry about. But the second thing, of course, is local councils really matter in and of themselves. So we shouldn't just be reading it in terms of national elections.
3:05 Alastair Campbell? Absolutely. And it's infuriating how that always happens, straight away.
3:08 Rory Stewart? And infuriating for the local councillors, because obviously, they have very, very different visions on how they want to run their local council. You know, one party might be pushing to be tighter on the finances, another one might be pushing ahead with green climate initiatives, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So what's your sense of it so far?
3:26 Alastair Campbell? I think it's been worse than the Tories expected for the Tories. We said in the podcast last week, that, or earlier this week, that we thought Oliver Down was talking about a thousand losses, which would have been a third of every seat they were fighting or defending. A thousand losses. And we thought that was him playing a game that they were thinking maybe a lot less than that, and they'd be able to sort of say it was a bit of, it was better than expected. I don't know what the final tally's going to be, but it's going to be not far off that. I'm actually sitting in the offices of the New European, Rory, where I've just signed a thousand books, because that's their next gift to new subscribers.
4:07 Alastair Campbell? And they did a thing, asking people how many books they thought were there. And I just gave a hint, saying it's a little bit more than the Tories, the number of seats the Tories are going to lose. So that's a free plug for the New European, we'll give them a better sponsorship plug later. But I think that that expectation game has backfired a little bit for the Tories. There's no way they can say this is anything other than bad. And as you said on the main podcast, they're coming from that place where Theresa May was leader, where they were said at the time to be catastrophically bad anyway. The overall project, the BBC is saying the overall projected share at the moment was Labour on 35, Conservatives 26, Lib Dems 20, which is interesting, and others 19.
4:51 Alastair Campbell? And it's worth just focusing on the others for a minute, because the other big difference, the Greens have done pretty well. But the other thing that happens in local elections, that happens a lot less in national elections, is that independents do pick up an awful lot of votes and do sometimes control councils. But I think it's been very, very bad for the Tories, good for Labour, good for the Lib Dems, and to some extent for the Greens. Labour seemed to me to be doing well in the places that they've been targeting, and the Lib Dems have been doing well in the places they've been targeting.
5:20 Rory Stewart? So just in case anybody thought you might be spinning a little bit for Labour there, let's try to give the counter-narrative here. And the counter-narrative is-
5:29 Alastair Campbell? All I said was that Labour did well, you can't dispute that.
5:33 Rory Stewart? The counter-narrative is that for Labour to be in the kind of positions you were in in 97, in 97, Labour at this stage were coming out of a 95 local council election, which you'll remember very well. And do you remember what share of the vote you got in 95?
5:51 Alastair Campbell? Higher than 35.
5:53 Rory Stewart? Yeah, you got 46.
5:55 Alastair Campbell? Yeah.
5:56 Rory Stewart? So you came from 46 and held that pretty much.
5:59 Alastair Campbell? And what were the Lib Dems then?
6:01 Rory Stewart? The result was Labour 46, Conservative 25, Lib Dem 24. And this time, as you say, it looks like it's 35, 26, 20. So the big question is, is this quite enough? And I think- Keir Starmer will be a little bit disappointed for people who really want to feel that we're moving, that after years of Conservative government, particularly after a very, very torrid year, remember this is the year where they had Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, the catastrophic quasi-quarting budget, all this economic damage, and they've been in the polls up near 50%, so they would have been looking for a very strong showing to try to demonstrate
6:46 Rory Stewart? they could get a landslide. This is a result that suggests they should be able to get a majority, but it's not a very big majority. So there will be people in Labour quite disappointed by this.
6:56 Alastair Campbell? The only thing I'd say about that, if I can counter that, I've said to you before that for Labour to get from where they were in 2019, to get a majority of one, requires a bigger swing than we had in 1997. So I don't think the comparison, I get why you're saying it's not 1997, I get why you make that comparison, but I think a fairer comparison for Labour is what's happened since Keir Starmer became leader. And listen, you've heard me say, I'm not pretending that there aren't still huge problems that Labour have in terms of winning over all the people that are there to be won over. I actually think on the back of these results, Labour should be setting themselves the objective of winning big.
7:37 Alastair Campbell? Not because, and I agree with you, these results on their own do not suggest a 1997-type landslide, but what they indicate to me is that the big, driving narrative that it seems to me to be pointing us towards the next election are people saying, we've just got to get rid of the Tories. There's been a lot of tactical voting going on. That point about the Lib Dems doing well where they need to do well, Labour doing well where they need to, not everywhere, for both of them, not everywhere, but I suspect on that it's because Liberal Democrats are really putting their resources into some pretty strategically targeted areas, Labour are doing the same, and people are buying into it much more than they did.
8:18 Rory Stewart? The other problem that you've got, of course, is, and this slightly depends on what happens with the SNP, but the other big change is that Labour is facing a big challenge to take back seats in Scotland. Now, it may be able to do so, maybe the change from Nicola Sturgeon to Hamza Youssef opens up that opportunity, but that's another reason why this is much trickier than it was in the mid 90s for Labour.
8:40 Alastair Campbell? I agree with that. However, two things to push back on that. The two big changes that I always believe had to happen for Labour to start to get some sort of claw back in Scotland, the most important was Scottish people believing that Labour could beat the Tories nationally, and I think these results will make people think that's possible. And the second thing would be that the SNP lose their vise-like grip on politics in Scotland, and that has happened. So Scotland is open for Labour to do a lot better. This is showing to me as well. The other thing that I think is really important on this, I, as you know, you keep saying you're a fan of Rishi Sunak. I don't think Rishi Sunak is that good as a prime minister, or as a leader, or as
9:22 Alastair Campbell? a campaigner. I think he's being judged by the right-wing press in particular as being very, very good because he's much better than his two predecessors, but it's such a low bar. And for the country, things feel totally stuck. And I wondered, I tweeted this morning a picture that somebody sent me of a queue in Norfolk, and the queue was huge, and it was because a dentist had announced that he was going to take on a few extra NHS patients. Now, I think issues like that, so when you hear Sunak come on the radio this morning and say, and honestly, these politicians, when are they going to grow up? When are they going to understand that him coming on this morning, or Greg Hand's coming on saying what people were saying on the doorstep is how much they
10:06 Alastair Campbell? like Rishi Sunak, and Rishi Sunak saying, just repeating his five pledges and talking about stopping the boats. I just think that they're sent, them constantly saying to the people, these are your priorities, when they're actually not necessarily the people's priorities. The people's priorities are to get a GP service, are to get their teeth fixed, are to sort of, you know, get the litigled off their streets. They're much more prosaic in a way, and that's maybe why in these local elections, people have felt that, you know, the country's just not working as it should.
10:34 Rory Stewart? Conservatives, obviously, just to run through the figures again, and remind people what happened. So 2019 was the catastrophic election. They went from about 5,000 seats down to about 3,500. And now it looks like they may lose another thousand. But in between, there were the elections in 2021, when the Conservatives actually advanced in the Red Wall, consolidated their positions. So it's a very, very interesting thing that's happened. Because, in a sense, and this is the very unfortunate situation that Rishi Sunak's put himself in, and my friend, who I admire enormously, David Gork, has written a very good piece in the New Statesman about this, which we'll put in the newsletter.
11:19 Rory Stewart? But essentially, Rishi Sunak is facing a real challenge, and the problem is, is he going to fall between two stools? Because the right of the party is going to be saying, "You didn't do as well as Boris Johnson did, because you're not being right wing enough", because in 21, you know, they did well in the Red Wall, and they've been knocked back in the Red Wall by Labour, these are the seats up in the North East. But of course, people like me, on the centre, sort of left of the party, are going to be saying, "You haven't done enough to modernise. You haven't got rid of Suella Braverman. You haven't demonstrated that you're a party that can really win back the Lib Dem voters." Because the story that
11:59 Rory Stewart? we haven't really talked about is extraordinary Lib Dem successes, particularly in these Remain commuter zones around London, places like Hertfordshire. So you're seeing Burghamstead going yellow, Hemel Hempstead going yellow, Hartsmere going yellow.
12:15 Alastair Campbell? Windsor.
12:16 Rory Stewart? Windsor Maidenhead. So that's the Lib Dems making huge advances. And I guess that the challenge for both Conservatives and Labour is, as they fight over these Red Wall seats, they are at risk of losing educated, Remain-voting people around London who are going to be tempted towards the Lib Dems, because they're certainly not hearing from Rishi Sunak what they want, they see him as a Brexit heir, but they're not really hearing from Keir Starmer what they want, on things like single market and the Customs Union.
12:47 Alastair Campbell? No, I would argue, they're not really hearing it from the Liberal Democrats either. I mean, the Liberal Democrats have not been campaigning on Brexit. Now, I actually wonder whether these results will make...
12:59 Alastair Campbell? Certainly the Lib Dems, because you're right that they're targeting areas that probably were predominantly Remain. I'm not suggesting that this is all about Brexit at all, but I think the Lib Dems can afford to be much, much more aggressive against the government on Brexit. I think they can be much more like the SNP. And I actually do think, I've been seeing this consistently when I see people from the Labour Party, as you know, I think it was a mistake to back the deal. I think that the Labour Party can, has to start to speak to these millions of people, particularly young people, who do still feel very, very strongly, even if they don't think about going back into the European Union, though many do, but who feel strongly that they were completely lied to, sold a pub
13:43 Alastair Campbell? and their future's been stolen from them. Now, Labour has to speak to those people. I would like just a line in a manifesto that said, "We accept the referendum outcome, the country wants to come together rather than remain divided and polarised, but the reality is Brexit, as implemented by the government, has not done the economy or our culture or our strength in the world any good. We will have to review its workings", something like that.
14:08 Rory Stewart? In a way, what these local council elections are doing is revealing a longer story that we've been exploring through the podcast over a number of months, which is that Rishi Sunak finds himself between a rock and a hard place in order to win back those more Remain, more London commuter belt voters, voters in the South East. He has to modernise. But the problem is that if he tried to do what people like myself or David Gork would want to do with the party, he would find that the Conservative Party members would kick up, the right of the party would kick up, members would hate it, and he therefore finds it very, very difficult to make the transition he needs to make. He's in a tough
14:52 Rory Stewart? ... I mean, essentially, I think the problem is that if people like myself or David Gork were running the Conservative Party, we probably wouldn't last very long.
15:00 Alastair Campbell? But Rory, what was it Tony Blair said in our interview with him for this week's leading? The real test is leadership is when you're prepared to stand up to your party. And I think that this is again, I think, is a big opportunity for Labour. We've agreed, I think, that Labour's been very good at differentiating from Corbyn, very good at showing that the Tories have not been, not done a very good job of governing. But we want to see more of the kind of, you know, the positive agenda. And for me, that is not about this little policy here, that little policy, or even big policy here and there. It's about what we think this country can be in a few years' time. What is our big message about that?
15:37 Rory Stewart? I think we must finish by reminding people that these local council elections are about local democracy. And one of the things that we have to go on and talk more about is the huge gap between the way that Britain does local democracy and the way that countries like France do local democracy. We still haven't managed to develop fully autonomous mayors with properly devolved budgets. I very struck every French town, people know who their mayor is. They can go up to them in the supermarket, they can challenge them, they can get a response. We are still in a situation, which I felt as a member of parliament, that too often people know their members of parliament's name, but don't know the names of their local councillors.
16:20 Rory Stewart? And although a lot of governments have talked about devolution and local democracy, we still have not given enough proper autonomy to these local councils so that they can be, well, so they can be fully responsible. Let's take London's a classic example. You end up a situation where the local government feels a little bit ceremonial because nobody's quite sure, is this guy really responsible for the police? Is he really responsible for the way the tubes run? Is he really responsible for the way that housing's done or not? And we have to sort that out.
16:49 Alastair Campbell? Hmm. And but I, the other thing I think is happening here under the surface, which may eventually lead to electoral reform, realignment, I don't know where it's going to lead, but I really genuinely think that a lot of tactical voter went on. And I think the other point we should make clear to people is that there's, there's a, the Liberal Democrats can genuinely pat themselves on the back for having done very, very well in this campaign. But of course, it's easier for them to target seats because there are fewer places where they are the main challengers of the Tories. And I think what's happened, I do believe that the Labour Party, whilst letting local parties get on and do their thing, they've not, they're basically are pooling their resources pretty strategically and quite cleverly.
17:31 Alastair Campbell? And I think even on that, I think Labour would do a lot of good. Keir was very, very firm recently about no prospect of electoral reform. I think even, again, another idea for a vague line in the manifesto, there is a lot of discontent with our politics and with our voting system. And, you know, we are going to have to look at the workings of our democracy because it's not functioning well. We should probably have a little word, Rory, about this whole voter ID thing. It does seem to have created some problems for most polling stations. There have been pretty consistent reports of people turning up unable to vote and being quite angry about it. The FT had a story this morning saying that the ministers accepted that and we're going to look at reviewing it.
18:13 Alastair Campbell? But if ever there was a sledgehammer to crack a nut that didn't even exist, I'm afraid this was it. This is bad, bad government.
18:20 Rory Stewart? This was, this is something we've discussed in the past, isn't it? It's about, it's about, it's about the demands for IDs, which, and the IDs being easier for old people than younger voters.
18:31 Alastair Campbell? Okay, Rory, let's take a quick break.
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20:56 Alastair Campbell? This emergency podcast of The Rest is Politics is sponsored by The New European, and I'm actually in their offices because I have been busy this afternoon signing a thousand books. My new book, But What Can I Do? How Do We Fix Politics? And there's lots we can do. For a start, you can take out a subscription to The New European, and if you do that, you will be supporting strong, independent journalism that, unlike most of our newspapers, tells the truth about Europe, politics, has an amazing coverage of unique European arts and culture. It's journalism you won't find in any other publication, and you certainly won't find all the hatred and polarization and division that you get fanned around papers like The Mail, et cetera.
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22:18 Rory Stewart? Do you think it's changed your views on what will happen in the next general election, reinforced them, subtly altered them, made you think a little bit differently about strategy?
22:26 Alastair Campbell? I think it's reinforced them to the extent that I honestly do think it's there to be one big. I think there's a real sense that the Tories have got to go. And Labour, we've talked about this so much, the Ming Vars or the big bold strategy, the Ming Vars is fine, it'll get you so far. And the chances are, based on this, that it means that Keir Starmer should be Prime Minister after the next election. But I think Labour's got to think bigger and bolder than that. And that is about, I'll tell you the thing that will happen out of this, though, the Labour Party will get, and the Liberal Democrats, will get an incredible boost in confidence and morale. And that is really important, particularly at this stage of the Parliament.
23:02 Rory Stewart? And just to remind people, finally, on the hill that needs to be climbed, the provisional results suggest Labour on 35, Conservatives 26, Lib Dems 20. Put that in context, in 97, Labour got 43% of the vote, as opposed to 35. And even in 2001, 40% of the vote, as opposed to 35. So Labour's still got some way to go, not just to get to the 97 levels, but to get to the 2001 levels.
23:30 Alastair Campbell? Yeah. But I think the, I think the thing that's going on, the dance that's going on between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, will happen more than it did back then. I feel that that is going to getting through to the public that, you know, that may be the way, because the driving narrative, I think, will be-
23:46 Rory Stewart? By which you mean tactical voting?
23:47 Alastair Campbell? Yeah, absolutely.
23:48 Rory Stewart? Which we're great supporters of.
23:50 Alastair Campbell? We are. And I think a lot of it went on. I think a lot of it went on, and people will work that out. So, yeah. And I think the other thing I'd say is, I think if the Tories have got any sense whatsoever- They will understand, they cannot keep talking to the country as though we're all a bunch of idiots. I mean, for Greg Hands to go out this morning and say, the message we were getting on the doorstep is people think Rishi Sunak is doing a marvellous job. I mean, it's just, you sound ridiculous when you say things like that. And I think they've got to get serious about being a serious government that makes this country work, because at the moment it's not working.
24:23 Rory Stewart? Okay, so just back finally on the figures, most experts now think that Labour need a seven-point lead to get a majority, because distribution of vote has changed a lot since 2005. Nine points, which is yesterday's result, will get them a majority. And if their vote becomes more efficiently allocated, in other words, they get stuff in Scotland, SNP implode, that can be a healthy majority. But, and this is the problem, if the Tories make a bit of a recovery, and governments often outperform local election results and general election results.
24:53 Alastair Campbell? Yeah, sure, for sure.
24:54 Rory Stewart? It can still be quite tight for Labour, so no room for complacency. And I just once more praise my friend David Gork, who has taught me everything I know about this election.
25:03 Alastair Campbell? Now, Rory, where are you? I need to know where you are, because you're back in my country.
25:09 Rory Stewart? I have just landed, just got off an aeroplane. And I am, I'd like to make a little shout out to Angels, which is a theatrical costume shop. And why am I in a theatrical costume shop? It's because, having just landed from Jordan, I realised that I wanted to wear my Privy councillor's uniform to the coronation. And I realised that, of course, I couldn't get one. And to a miracle, these very, very extraordinary families, the seventh generation of this family, so somebody called Jeremy Angel, and they've done everything. This is, I'm in a warehouse in Hendon, surrounded by all the costumes used on every film you've ever heard of, from Man Falls seasons right the way through to films out this year.
25:51 Alastair Campbell? How do you know that they're not selling you some sort of something out of The Three Basketeers and say, this is the Privy councillor's uniform?
26:00 Rory Stewart? Because they're incredibly serious. They've got a man with a book from 1923, looking at every detail of a Privy councillor's uniform, and making sure they've got the right gloves and the right frogging on the front.
26:12 Alastair Campbell? What does it say on your, by the way, this is the first time you've actually confirmed what I, you refuse to confirm in the main podcast, that you have been invited to the coronation. My invitation has obviously got lost, you've probably been there.
26:25 Rory Stewart? I see you've got your costume on there.
26:27 Alastair Campbell? I've got my
26:29 Rory Stewart? The people can't see you.
26:30 Alastair Campbell? of the year hoodie.
26:30 Rory Stewart? Yeah, exactly.
26:32 Alastair Campbell? But so what does it say about dress code, though? Do you can you wear what you want?
26:36 Rory Stewart? It says, uniform or lounge suit.
26:40 Alastair Campbell? But why don't you wear a military? Could you wear a military uniform?
26:43 Rory Stewart? No, I'm too long out of the army to wear a military uniform.
26:46 Alastair Campbell? So you're going to wear a Privy Council? Does every Privy Councilor have to wear a Privy Council uniform?
26:50 Rory Stewart? No, I think I think some are going to, some won't.
26:52 Alastair Campbell? Oh, my God.
26:53 Rory Stewart? I think many of them are just going to turn up and many of them will turn up in a suit.
26:56 Alastair Campbell? Somebody just said to me, will I watch it? And I said, yeah, I'm sort of thinking about, I'm definitely watching it now.
27:02 Rory Stewart? Well, what do you want to see is my ostrich feather hat? That's what you really want to see.
27:05 Alastair Campbell? You're not really wearing an ostrich feather hat?
27:07 Rory Stewart? No, I'm going to carry an ostrich feather hat, yeah.
27:09 Alastair Campbell? And what's Shoshana going to wear? What does it? What does a Mrs Privy Councilor wear?
27:13 Rory Stewart? She wears her own clothes. She's not wearing a uniform.
27:17 Alastair Campbell? Will look, will our credibility be enhanced or diminished by what they see tomorrow?
27:24 Rory Stewart? I'm I'm hoping that there will be so many extraordinary uniforms surrounding me that nobody will notice.
27:29 Alastair Campbell? Hmm, I think you'll be noticed. I've just looked it up. It looks quite dramatic.
27:37 Alastair Campbell? Well, listen, I hope you have, I hope you have a lovely time.
27:39 Rory Stewart? Thank you.
27:40 Alastair Campbell? And by the way, well done on the main podcast for being the the kind of spear carrier for the establishment operation to tell the world that the Archbishop was the man who had this idea of universal swearing of allegiance. You've been followed through by the the mass battalions of of Jonathan Dimbleby on the Today Programme, this morning, making clear that Prince Charles views the idea as abhorrent.
28:10 Rory Stewart? Well, there we are. Well, it's got to be spear carriers, isn't it? Right, on that note, this is the end of our emergency podcast and I've got to go and put my ostrich feather hat on.
28:19 Alastair Campbell? Final point, Rory, if you fail, given all the people in that church tomorrow. If you fail to come back to me tomorrow evening with, I fixed leading interviews with seven heads of state, thirty three, you know, amazing global figures, then you'll have let me down.
28:37 Rory Stewart? The vice chamberlain of the Royal Household will not be enough for you.
28:41 Alastair Campbell? Have a lovely day.
28:43 Rory Stewart? All right, bye bye. Thank you.
28:45 Alastair Campbell? Bye bye.
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29:41 Speaker 12 Blinds.com isn't a medication, but it can improve how you feel about your home. Customers who shop at Blinds.com experience excellent customer service, from consultation to installation. Side effects include increased privacy and better sleep. Talk to your partner today and see if Blinds.com is right for you. Visit Blinds.com to order your free samples.
30:03 Speaker 13 Espolone Tequila. Balanced, delicious. 100% agave, 0% ego. Just add ice, lime, and your mouth. For real, Margarita. Ride the rooster.
30:13 Speaker 09 Espolone Tequila, 40% alcohol by volume, 80% proof. Copyright 2026, Copyright America, New York, New York. Drink responsibly.
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