The Buffalo Curse, a Mega-Mailbag, QB Roulette, and Week 3 Picks With Joe House and Tom Pelissero

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House to dive into the mailbag and answer some questions from the listeners. Then, Tom Pelissero comes on to talk about six fascinating topics in the NFL before House returns to make their Ringer 107 picks for Week 3. (0:00) Intro (2:01) Mailbag with House (56:40) Six fascinating things in the NFL with Tom Pelissero (1:30:23) Ringer 107 Week 3 Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Joe House and Tom Pelissero Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Create a Personalized Price Plan® today. https://www.statefarm.com/lp/football/ The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by PayPal. The holiday rush is coming and you can get ahead of it with PayPal. Shop your favorite online stores with PayPal this season like eBay for collectibles, Fanatics for teen gear, Walmart for tech. Check out the flexibility to pay now or pay later and split your payments with Pay in Four with no interest, no late fees. Shop now with PayPal. Paying for subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com/payingfor. PayPal, Inc., NMLS 910457.

• 0:39Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network, where you can find the new episode of the rewatchables. We did Law Abiding Citizen this week. Next week, we are doing another rom com. Yeah, 13 Going on 30. Jennifer Garner, a classic. It's on Netflix if you haven't seen it. Or if you have seen it, or in the case of my wife and daughter, if you've been watching it really since 2004. My daughter was watching. She was minus one. She was somehow watching it, I think, in my wife's belly. A beloved rom com. So that's coming on Monday. Coming on this podcast, Joe House and I are gonna do a big listener mailbag. We're gonna take a break, bringing Tom Pelissero in.

• 1:22Bill Simmons?

  He's gonna give us the scoop on what's going on in the NFL heading into Week 3. And then House and I are gonna do Ringer 107 picks. It's all coming up next. We're gonna take a break, Pearl Jam, and then mailbag. The Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by FanDuel. The NFL is here and it's the most rewarding season ever on FanDuel with the all time FanDuel Rewards Club. Every eligible bet can earn you points. Win or lose, you still get points. The more points, the bigger the rewards you can unlock. Head to FanDuel.com/BS to start earning with FanDuel Rewards Club. 21 plus, select states, or 18 plus, DC or Wyoming.

• 2:01Bill Simmons?

  Game prob, call 1-800-GAMBAR, or call 888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org/chat. Connecticut.

• 2:35Bill Simmons?

  Thursday, mid afternoon, East Coast time. Joe House is here. We're gonna do picks in a little bit. I have a mailbag for you, House, and I didn't send you any of the questions ahead of time, not one, no prep. But this is why you're one of the greats. You're just gonna roll with me. How are you, by the way?

• 2:49Speaker 01

  I'm phenomenal. I had a little midweek business trip, and at this stage of life, business trip means golf trip. So, great time down in Richmond, Virginia, playing golf. It rained a little bit, but, you know, I'm back at it, ready, ready to grind.

• 3:04Bill Simmons?

  Are you excited for Jethson Nick Book Club?

• 3:08Bill Simmons?

  You're a big English major.

• 3:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, I have so many things to say about the Jethson Nick Book Club.

• 3:14Bill Simmons?

  Positive?

• 3:16Speaker 01

  Oh, all the best things, but none of which I'm gonna say on camera.

• 3:20Bill Simmons?

  Oh, well, you were an English major in college. You're gonna have to come on.

• 3:23Speaker 01

  And he's, he's, he's a deep thinker when it comes to the books.

• 3:27Bill Simmons?

  I know. Well, doesn't sound like you're that excited about it. All right, mailbag question. These are mailbag questions from actual listeners. And the first one is from Joe from SoCal. Listening to your Zombie DeShawn take, and I think you should hereby refer to him as DeShawn of the Dead, like the early 2000 zombie parody movie. I love DeShawn of the Dead. I'm officially calling him that for the rest of my life.

• 3:51Speaker 01

  It's a great name, and I wish I knew which version we were gonna get in this game against the Panthers this weekend.

• 3:59Bill Simmons?

  Spoiler alert, for our Ringer 107 picks coming later, is Tampa-Cleveland on your card?

• 4:06Speaker 01

  It is not.

• 4:08Bill Simmons?

  It's on my card, not Tampa-Cleveland.

• 4:10Speaker 01

  Wait, wait, wait. Tampa-Cleveland was, was-

• 4:12Bill Simmons?

  That was last week.

• 4:13Speaker 01

  A zombie apocalypse.

• 4:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that was the actual zombie apocalypse. The game stopped and everything. No, no, the Cleveland this week.

• 4:21Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 4:22Bill Simmons?

  Are they on your card?

• 4:23Speaker 01

  They are not.

• 4:24Bill Simmons?

  Against Carolina?

• 4:25Speaker 01

  No, they are not.

• 4:27Bill Simmons?

  Jeremy in Seattle wants to know, the Paul Pierce wheelchair gif stood alone for decades. Unfair, he thought his knee popped, he panicked. Is the Caleb Williams carting off gif the new gold standard? Congrats to Paul Pierce, you might finally be off the hook. What do you think?

• 4:45Speaker 01

  First of all, the Paul Pierce gif, definitely fair. He thought his knee popped, but they got him up off the court. He got into the chair. There's a, you know whether or not your knee popped.

• 4:58Bill Simmons?

  He came back and he made some threes and we beat the Lakers in a finals game.

• 5:02Speaker 01

  In the game. He came back in the game. He didn't sit out the rest of the game. I feel like it's entirely fair.

• 5:07Bill Simmons?

  Caleb Williams made everyone think he blew out his Achilles and was really upset on the, on the cart, and then it turns out he might even be playing this weekend.

• 5:16Speaker 01

  It's an astonishing performance by Caleb. Just, just magnificent. And the internet really has responded in kind. Not kind, but in kind. The internet has some opinions of Caleb Williams and the way that that whole thing went down. My favorite was probably the side by side of Jackson Dart walking off the field with torn ligaments in his knee, and Caleb, you know, with a towel over his head. That one was a favorite.

• 5:44Bill Simmons?

  Some people are just bad with pain.

• 5:48Bill Simmons?

  I mean, it's the reality.

• 5:49Speaker 01

  It's a reality.

• 5:50Bill Simmons?

  My wife, my wife loves Instagram dog videos, cuz she obviously clicks on all of them, and then they get served to them, and it's this never ending cycle. There's this video, I think it's of a Basset Hound or a pit bull. I can't remember who's getting his nails clipped. Have you seen it?

• 6:04Speaker 01

  I saw it this week. I adored it. I'm not even on that, that algorithm, but I saw it.

• 6:09Bill Simmons?

  Nothing's happening, and then all of a sudden, the dog's nail gets clipped, and he just goes, "Oooh," for, for like 20 seconds.

• 6:18Speaker 01

  He does too. He goes a whole one that goes 20 seconds, and then he goes right back at it. It's only one nail clipping.

• 6:23Bill Simmons?

  He's so upset.

• 6:24Speaker 01

  He does it twice.

• 6:25Bill Simmons?

  Doesn't like pain. He was on the injury cart, he's freaking out.

• 6:28Speaker 01

  It's anticipatory pain for the dog. It doesn't hurt to have your nails clipped. He's just sure that they're gonna cut his paw. Poor guy.

• 6:35Bill Simmons?

  Dogs don't like pain. Maybe some NFL players don't either. Speaking of the Browns, Ken from Cleveland said, as a lifelong Browns fan before last weekend's game, I realized the most Browns thing that could happen was us beating the Bucks. Now we are stuck with Watson starting the home opener, coming off arguably his best start as a Brown, which will lead to fans trying to talk themselves into him, all leading to the typical disappointment that fans feel watching the Browns losing another home opener 10 to 6, when Watson throws multiple interceptions in his boot throughout the game in the factory of sadness. Anyway, congrats on another week of betting against DeShawn Watson. No way the Browns scored 20 points in this game. You might even get two weeks cuz we play Pittsburgh the week after. These are all some really good points.

• 7:20Bill Simmons?

  We made a lot of fun of DeShawn last week, House.

• 7:22Speaker 01

  I'm not betting against him. I'm just not doing it.

• 7:25Bill Simmons?

  DeShawn of the Dead, you're staying away?

• 7:27Speaker 01

  He played better than Baker Mayfield. He had a better game than Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield's making $165 million over these next three years.

• 7:35Bill Simmons?

  I sadly watched the entire game and said this on Sunday night. I thought DeShawn of the Dead was legitimately good in that game. Now, he wasn't throwing anything really deep, but it was all short stuff. He had a real rhythm. Their offense was moving the ball.

• 7:50Speaker 01

  Great yak.

• 7:51Bill Simmons?

  And it seemed like his teammates were buying into him. I might get sucked in. You'll have to stay. Yo Cannon from South Florida, I hope I said that correctly, said, you always talk about coaches on the hot seat. Maybe we need a new category. We call it the crock Pete slow, crock pot slow cooker seat. This is a good one for you. When your wife mom makes a delicious slow cooked stew. What's better than that smell, by the way?

• 8:18Speaker 01

  We're in, we're in crock pot season now officially, too.

• 8:21Bill Simmons?

  You have to wait all night or 24 hours for the stew to be ready. You get up in the morning and the whole house smells good, but it's not ready to be eaten yet. You just keep thinking about it all day until finally about 24 hours later, you're ready to eat that delicious stew. How hungry are you right now?

• 8:36Speaker 01

  Just, just over the top. It's amazing.

• 8:39Bill Simmons?

  This is a perfect category for coaches that we just feel like the seat is warming up, but we still need to wait a little bit for the seat to be proper hot. So I guess the analogy here is Jim Harbaugh. Is it a crock pot seat or a hot seat for Jim Harbaugh right now? It might be a crock pot seat. I think we're taking the crock pot to Buffalo this weekend.

• 8:58Speaker 01

  I think that's crazy. Harbaugh, he will bail before the seat gets hot enough.

• 9:05Bill Simmons?

  Either.

• 9:06Speaker 01

  It's, it's, it's, it's an eject seat for him. He's in a fighter jet, and he's like, I'm not gonna let these guys get, I'm gonna hit the eject button and float down to some, you know, soft landing.

• 9:19Bill Simmons?

  Who's the crock pot coach then? So you think Jim Harbaugh's in the Top Gun eject seat?

• 9:24Speaker 01

  Bowles is for sure in a hotter seat.

• 9:27Bill Simmons?

  Bowles is in a hot seat, though. He's not a crock pot seat.

• 9:29Speaker 01

  So it's not, it's, it's already hot. It's, it's not warming up.

• 9:33Bill Simmons?

  It's a coach that we have, we have some questions and concerns about, but it hasn't really got. Here's, here's one. I, I wouldn't rule this one out, especially if, if they go in through this weekend, but D'Amico Ryan's.

• 9:48Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 9:50Bill Simmons?

  Could that be cooking on the stove like a stew for a few weeks?

• 9:53Speaker 01

  Well, I'm not sure because all three hard games, and they started 0-3 last season.

• 9:59Bill Simmons?

  Hmm.

• 10:00Speaker 01

  And he, you know, I don't even recall him being on, on any kind of a warm seat.

• 10:04Bill Simmons?

  I like Harbaugh as the crock pot guy.

• 10:05Speaker 01

  All right.

• 10:06Bill Simmons?

  Do you think stews are underrated?

• 10:08Speaker 01

  Yes, yes, I'm so ready. It, we're in the season, I saw my first white guy with the beard wearing the knit hat here on the East Coast, you know, where we're officially, I'm sure up in Boston, they're all over the place.

• 10:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 10:20Speaker 01

  And yeah, the first-

• 10:21Bill Simmons?

  Was it Chris Ryan?

• 10:23Speaker 01

  No. I mean, crispy, that is a look for Chris Ryan, that's true. But I didn't see Chris Ryan.

• 10:28Bill Simmons?

  With multiple layers?

• 10:29Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:30Bill Simmons?

  The thing with the stew, there's never enough like broth in the stew. And where the stew's, my, my wife, I, when, she's a little hit or miss with it, but when it hits, it's unbelievable. But if there's not enough stew, then it just becomes all the contents of the stew after like one day, and it all, you know what I mean?

• 10:49Speaker 01

  You can, you can re-broth. You can re-broth.

• 10:52Bill Simmons?

  If it's too broth-y, then it's not stewy enough. There's like this real middle ground you have to hit. It's really hard.

• 10:59Speaker 01

  There's a great spot there. This is a nice challenge. Let's, let's pose this one to Dave Chang.

• 11:02Bill Simmons?

  Maybe when you come to LA, maybe Dave Chan can make us a stew.

• 11:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, that sounds like a great idea. Let's see.

• 11:08Bill Simmons?

  The problem is it's not the same Dave Chang anymore. It's not the same cook.

• 11:13Speaker 01

  No, let me ask this.

• 11:14Bill Simmons?

  Dave Chang 15 years ago would have been like, I'm gonna make you the best stew ever. This Dave Chang now is like, I don't know, I'm flying with Amazon this week. Can't do it. I don't know if I'm gonna have time.

• 11:24Speaker 01

  He's got a CNN show.

• 11:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, he's got a CNN thing. I don't know.

• 11:28Speaker 01

  All over the great nation of ours, eating.

• 11:30Bill Simmons?

  Stews are one of those things if at a restaurant, if they're like, one of our specials tonight is a delicious beef stew. It's like, okay. That sounds wonderful. Thank you.

• 11:38Speaker 01

  More often you see like seafood stew, like a chipino or something like, you know, look at all of the shellfish that are in here with like a rich tomato broth. But folks don't say, have some beef stew. I've seen shepherd's pie, I've seen chicken pot pie, but those are not stews. Those are, you know, they have a kind of a filling that has sort of a brothy soft that's very nice and nourishing and comforting. But somebody needs to just jump out and say, fuck it, I'm going full stew. Have some stew.

• 12:09Bill Simmons?

  One great thing about this, well, two great things about the stews that you just don't get in other entrees. One are the really soft potatoes.

• 12:15Speaker 01

  Amazing.

• 12:16Bill Simmons?

  The potatoes just kind of, they almost like mashed potatoes, but they're still have a hardness in them.

• 12:20Speaker 01

  They have a tiny bit of a texture still.

• 12:23Bill Simmons?

  And then the big ass carrots that also get soft, I think are my single favorite thing.

• 12:27Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 12:29Bill Simmons?

  I love the big ass carrots.

• 12:30Speaker 01

  I don't mind a tiny little onion in there as well either. I don't mind the onion in this stew. I don't mind it.

• 12:37Bill Simmons?

  I wonder if Dave Chang would make us do.

• 12:39Speaker 01

  Nice beef stew? Strong with mommy?

• 12:42Bill Simmons?

  Go ahead. Speaking of cooks. So I was dubious of the Tony movie. Cause it's 824 and I'm just, my body's just starting to reject the 824 over campaigns for every movie they do. Like settle down 824 for real.

• 12:58Bill Simmons?

  So I didn't see it in the theater, but I did rent it last week.

• 13:01Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 13:02Bill Simmons?

  And I loved it. I thought it was fantastic. I really loved it.

• 13:06Speaker 01

  I wanted, I wanted to hear from somebody.

• 13:06Bill Simmons?

  I really genuinely loved it. I was so impressed by how they did it and the angle they took. And I thought the actors were good and I just, it's probably my favorite movie I've seen in 2026. I even, it's that or obsession.

• 13:19Speaker 01

  The Ringer liked it. I think Greenwald and Chris Ryan gave it very high marks.

• 13:23Bill Simmons?

  Everybody liked it. I just was, you know, I'm always a little dubious with them because I think they promote stuff.

• 13:30Speaker 01

  Putting this on my list.

• 13:31Bill Simmons?

  It's really, really good. I like it.

• 13:33Speaker 01

  Tony.

• 13:35Bill Simmons?

  Adam in DC.

• 13:37Speaker 01

  Hey, what's up, Adam?

• 13:40Bill Simmons?

  You better put on a bulletproof vest for this email.

• 13:44Bill Simmons?

  With all the talk about the 49ers substation this summer, I can't believe that no one has brought up the fact that the commander's practice facility in Ashburn is surrounded by literally the biggest collection of hyperscale data centers on earth. They're like robot fortresses and they're all on all sides of the commie practice bubble. In fact, the team already has a contract to sell the land to build more data centers. This place is literally radioactive. The world needs to know. Currently 14 of our 22 starters are out with injuries. I haven't heard a single word from anyone about the outcomes of spending training camp next to a 100X substation. Can't believe House hasn't brought this up. This man needs to get off the golf course and spend some time out in DMV.

• 14:28Bill Simmons?

  Love the show, Adam in DC. Wow, just an attack on House.

• 14:31Speaker 01

  Calm down. First of all, it's barely the DMV with where the Ashburn and all that is too far out. I'm not going all the way out there and those data centers have been cropping up. I, I will confess that I am unfamiliar with how many there are in this notion that they're surrounding. I know that there's some in proximity. I've been out there, but I didn't, I was unaware of this idea that they're surrounding the practice facility, but I don't.

• 14:58Bill Simmons?

  Maybe it's like the San Francisco thing with less PR. I took Adam's word for it, a complete stranger and did no Googling whatsoever about it. So I'm just throwing it out there in the universe. I thought you were gonna know.

• 15:09Speaker 01

  No, I don't know. Cause I'm, it's the Ashburn.

• 15:11Bill Simmons?

  Are there data centers in that Asheville area?

• 15:15Speaker 01

  There are, there are Ashburn and there are data centers in that direction. Yes. There definitely are. And they may have been sprouting up. Uh, I might be completely unaware of.

• 15:26Bill Simmons?

  By the way, San Francisco's playing incredible. And maybe, maybe the substation is now helping them. Maybe it's giving them superpowers.

• 15:33Speaker 01

  I want them to keep playing well.

• 15:34Bill Simmons?

  Well, since that last email was mean to House, this next one is an all timer from Alex Gordon and it's very favorable for House.

• 15:42Speaker 01

  Oh, good.

• 15:43Bill Simmons?

  On October 24th of this year, on the BS report, you were discussing how great the Red Sox turnaround was. When the great Joe House unleashed this masterpiece, which came out of absolutely nowhere. Quote, yeah, I'd like to invite the Red Sox to eat a fat dick because I bet them consecutive games against the athletic. What athletics, what was that? Once I finished howling with laughter, it wasn't on the Caleb Wilson cum room level, but it was still hilarious. I got to think about how House had inadvertently stumbled upon a great idea for the newest segment of the BS, BS report. He called it BS podcast. The invitation to eat a fat dick segment, sponsor TBD. Sponsor's gonna be tough for this. Each week you and/or the other host could pick a player, a team or fanbase that has displeased you.

• 16:28Bill Simmons?

  Really the possibilities are endless and invite said team player, et cetera, to eat a fat dick. My invited guest to the inaugural eat a fat dick segment on the BS podcast would be NSCantor Freedom.

• 16:39Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 16:39Bill Simmons?

  Maybe House can extend invites or others can vote on who gets the invite. There's a lot of irritating people, fanbases, teams. Just how irritating they are will be earned with an invitation from House to eat a fat dick. Thank you for this attention to this matter.

• 16:55Speaker 01

  Thank you for your attention to this matter. Wow.

• 16:58Bill Simmons?

  Sponsors are gonna be tough. I will, I'll talk to Spotify ad sales. Liz Kelly, maybe you'll be good on it.

• 17:03Speaker 01

  Find somebody that, that sells a food product that is like.

• 17:08Bill Simmons?

  Like hot dogs?

• 17:08Speaker 01

  Close enough. Yeah, that, that sounds great. Like a giant brat. Yeah.

• 17:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 17:14Speaker 01

  We could, we can do this. We can definitely make this. Johnsonville makes some delicious brats. We could find somebody that makes something that's big enough.

• 17:21Bill Simmons?

  I would have done this for the Mariners last week and I'm happy to do it this week too. George Kirby, Anthony Munoz, Josh Naylor.

• 17:28Speaker 01

  I think Hebrew National.

• 17:28Bill Simmons?

  Welcome to the eat a fat dick segment.

• 17:31Speaker 01

  Hebrew National sells, sells jumbos. Yeah. First of all, I'm still stuck on the sponsor, but this is obviously genius. I obviously endorse this. My very first eat a fat dick invitation would indeed go to Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For, I mean, they, they cost me $21 million. I was gonna win $21 million until last week. Sons of bitches. I might have to borrow that from you.

• 17:56Bill Simmons?

  See, I think, I think, uh, weather and lightning delays and all that stuff played as big of a factor. I still think they were gonna win that game.

• 18:03Speaker 01

  They were gonna, yeah, they were driving, where they had the ball, they were going right down the field. And then it's, and then they come back after three hours and it's an overthrow and it's a dirt ball and it's a guy who drops a pass. Come on, man.

• 18:17Bill Simmons?

  We'll workshop eat a fat dick and I'll get back to you sponsors. Nate from San Antonio said, on a Thursday pod, I couldn't help but notice how the way you talked about the Bills was identical to the dialogue about the Knicks last season. Both fired the coach that built the program. Both teams in a conference described as wide open. No one would pick them to win the Super Bowl over the big boys in the West NFC, except Max Kellerman. Can they win it all like the Knicks did?

• 18:44Speaker 01

  The answer is yes. As we sit here today on September the 24th. Just, just in advance, who are they hosting this weekend? They're favored by a touchdown, full touchdown.

• 18:53Bill Simmons?

  They're playing the Chargers.

• 18:54Speaker 01

  The Chargers favored by a full touchdown.

• 18:57Bill Simmons?

  Well, let me give you this one. This is, that was a one A email. This is a one B from Trevor in LA. 2012 LeBron was in his ninth year in the NBA, had won MVPs. Was why I regarded this best player in the league, had not won a championship and was coming off his biggest playoff failure. 2026, Josh Allen in his ninth year in the NFL. He's won an MVP, driven winning elite level. Why do you regard it as the best player in the league? He's not won a championship, coming off one of his biggest playoff failures. We know what LeBron did in 2012. Can Josh do that in 2026? I like that one.

• 19:32Speaker 01

  I like that one too.

• 19:33Bill Simmons?

  Also, the Josh Allen thing makes people mad, which is funny. It's like great for the sports take universe. Some people are like, why are we talking about Josh Allen like this?

• 19:43Speaker 01

  I think it's fair. We, we do hold especially quarterbacks to what have you done in the playoff standard? That's the standard. We murder Justin Herbert for it.

• 19:55Bill Simmons?

  Lamar has been.

• 19:55Bill Simmons?

  I thought like we murdered Josh Allen last year. I thought you did, I did and Sal did and everyone did a podcast with. He sucked in that playoff game. We gave it to him.

• 20:03Speaker 01

  He, he, he gave it to them. He, he gave it to them. That play at the end of the half, that, that was a unforgivable. Yes. The only thing I'll observe, I would really like, this thing will pick up steam if Buffalo really handles their, its business against the Chargers this weekend. The, the line is, is kind of rich and you're supposed to take the Chargers in this circumstance, desperate Chargers. And you, the reminder is they should, the, the Bills should have lost game one against Houston. Lassiter had the ball in his hands, you know, that would have ended the, the football game. And then they caught Detroit coming off of an overtime game on a short week.

• 20:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we have no idea if their defense is any good.

• 20:45Speaker 01

  Right. That's it. So.

• 20:46Bill Simmons?

  There's a lot of, surprisingly, I do not have the Bills Chargers game as in my, as a teaser leg.

• 20:53Speaker 01

  Oh, I don't have them in anything.

• 20:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And it's more because of some of the stats with the 0-2 teams and desperation. And the fact that I don't know if the Bills defense is any good.

• 21:05Speaker 01

  We have no idea.

• 21:06Bill Simmons?

  They certainly can't say it looked good the first two games. Speaking of the Knicks.

• 21:13Bill Simmons?

  Andrew from Boston wanted to point out, since you did that mailbag question about New York having great sports karma post Knicks for the first time in a generation. Aaron Judge got injured with no set return. Jets blew a 10-point lead because their coach didn't understand the overtime rules. Jackson dart out for the year.

• 21:32Bill Simmons?

  Wasn't intentional. I don't, I try to obey all karma rules, but it was notable that it wasn't a great week for, for New York teams after.

• 21:39Speaker 01

  All those things happened. The high watermark of the season for the, for the Giants was beating Dallas on Sunday night.

• 21:45Bill Simmons?

  Ethan from New York weighed in. Dude, the Yankees without Aaron Judge have all the makings for the all time great Ewing theory wins.

• 21:51Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 21:52Bill Simmons?

  Best turn in baseball, multi, multi time MVP. He's going to miss some of the postseason. And he said, best scenario is the Yankees make the World Series in a week, LA without him. Then he comes back and they lose to the Dodgers and his Ewing theory status is cemented.

• 22:07Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 22:07Bill Simmons?

  He does fit the, like, listen, the original definition of the Ewing theory is superstar, incredible media hype. Never actually won anything. Team plays better without him. Yankees have really good starters. I like their bullpen and I think they can generate offense with or without him.

• 22:26Speaker 01

  Elements are in place. The elements are in place.

• 22:28Bill Simmons?

  Elements are in place. Last week, Sal and I talked about the masked backup for QBs that you just wouldn't know.

• 22:35Speaker 01

  Incredible. Amazing.

• 22:37Bill Simmons?

  Nathan Wise suggested, Nathan Wise suggested we call it the mass slinger.

• 22:42Speaker 01

  Oh, oh.

• 22:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. I don't know how we didn't think of that.

• 22:45Speaker 01

  Great job, Nathan.

• 22:46Bill Simmons?

  The Cuz would have thought of that last week, but I, I think he had taken like seven Percocets and wasn't positive where he was because of the kidney stones.

• 22:53Speaker 01

  Is, is the, are the kidney stones done?

• 22:57Bill Simmons?

  I think they're still going.

• 22:58Speaker 01

  Oh. I'm sorry to hear it.

• 23:02Bill Simmons?

  It's, it's a really tough times for the Cuz.

• 23:04Speaker 01

  He deserves better. Did you, did you tell him to drink some hot water with lemon?

• 23:08Bill Simmons?

  I did. I told him to drink a lot of hot water.

• 23:10Speaker 01

  For a friend.

• 23:12Bill Simmons?

  Jacob H. in rural Washington says, I don't understand Vegas having a much higher valuation for an NBA franchise than Seattle, which is true. The Vegas thing is that like mid nines, allegedly edging toward 10. I just don't believe it, but now everybody thinks they're going to stagger it. Just name the Vegas team first and hope that they can build up the bidding for Seattle with more suitors, but the people that don't get the Vegas team.

• 23:38Bill Simmons?

  Jacob points out, Seattle has a rabid and loyal fan base that will show out even if the Sonics suck. Look how we show up for the Mariners even though they always break our hearts. Vegas has no good fan base. Opposing fans will take over, blah, blah, blah. And he just doesn't understand how Vegas is more valuable. I've asked around on this and I think it was the same thing that happened with the Seahawks.

• 24:03Bill Simmons?

  I think those super rich guys just are looking at convenience as much as anything and Vegas is really easy for everybody to get to, whereas Seattle is in the Pacific Northwest and it's three hours beyond anything. And I, I, I think it's a convenience thing. Does that make sense?

• 24:19Speaker 01

  For sure. There's also unquestionably all of the collateral revenue streams that are just.

• 24:27Bill Simmons?

  That come with Vegas.

• 24:28Speaker 01

  That come with Vegas.

• 24:29Bill Simmons?

  Like you build the arena, you, you 365 days basically. Yeah.

• 24:33Speaker 01

  Exactly right.

• 24:34Bill Simmons?

  It's those two things, but I do think the convenience thing is a big piece of it too.

• 24:39Bill Simmons?

  Boy, Conspiracy Bill was summoned by MC from North Attleboro.

• 24:45Bill Simmons?

  Said he's always been fascinated by Tom Brady in retirement. Beside all the weird personal life stuff, no comment. I love Tom Brady. I can't get over his arrangements with the NFL and Fox. He becomes a part-time owner in a team that he has no connection to and we're still not sure how he paid for it. Becomes a top commentary, color commentary guy for the network covering games for teams in the largest media markets and seemingly circumvents all existing rules the league had to prevent those dueling arrangements. My question for Conspiracy Bill, did the NFL do this for Brady as a makeup for Deflategate?

• 25:21Bill Simmons?

  Boom.

• 25:23Speaker 01

  Seems like you, you think the answer to that is yes.

• 25:27Bill Simmons?

  Conspiracy Bill is levitating like the Niners put an electro substation next to my podcast right now. What a great theory.

• 25:35Speaker 01

  They also made it up to Kraft, didn't they?

• 25:38Bill Simmons?

  How'd they make it up to Kraft?

• 25:40Speaker 01

  Isn't he in some kind of, isn't he in the Hall of Fame?

• 25:45Bill Simmons?

  Did he get in? I thought he didn't get in.

• 25:47Speaker 01

  Oh, well, whatever.

• 25:49Bill Simmons?

  I don't think maybe.

• 25:50Speaker 01

  He's got to get in.

• 25:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, at some point. I really like this Deflategate idea because it's still like, if you actually go back and sift through the facts of that whole thing, that was one of the all time railroading's and it's amazing. He didn't sue the league and probably could have and gotten away with it.

• 26:06Speaker 01

  Oh, come on. The fucking Patriots have been cheating for decades. We just hear story after story about.

• 26:12Bill Simmons?

  I'll give that over there.

• 26:12Speaker 01

  This cheating after that cheating, after this cheating.

• 26:15Bill Simmons?

  I know. He got caught up with it.

• 26:15Speaker 01

  And so the league does, steps in on one, one element of it and, and punishes. And it was a very gentle punishment. I mean, let's be honest.

• 26:25Bill Simmons?

  All the evidence was debunked.

• 26:27Speaker 01

  To give a shit about the evidence. Doesn't matter. The league gets to make up the rules.

• 26:32Bill Simmons?

  That was a railroading. I, I will fully admit.

• 26:35Speaker 01

  Cheating for two decades.

• 26:36Bill Simmons?

  I'll fully admit, maybe they did some other stuff.

• 26:39Speaker 01

  Yeah, they did. They sure did.

• 26:41Bill Simmons?

  In this case, I don't think he did it. I think he liked the balls a little lighter.

• 26:45Speaker 01

  Doesn't matter. You like the balls a little lighter. You like the balls lighter. Suck a fat one. How about that?

• 26:52Bill Simmons?

  That's Eda Fadik this week.

• 26:58Bill Simmons?

  With the Manning cast, this is from Emery from Columbus, Ohio.

• 27:02Speaker 01

  I'm nervous.

• 27:02Bill Simmons?

  This is a really good one. The Manning cast struggling.

• 27:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:05Bill Simmons?

  Jason Kelsey appearing in roughly every third commercial. Travis Kelsey continuing to absorb the gravitational pull of Taylor Swift's fame. It has to be asked, have the Kelsey brothers market corrected the Manning brothers?

• 27:20Bill Simmons?

  At what point would this be a full undeniable market correction? He suggests Travis stars in a movie with Tom Cruise. I'm going to say no. Jason Kelsey runs for president. Donna Kelsey gets her own cooking show. The brothers launched a drama on Peacock called Kelsey. He goes on and on. I, I think it's already happened.

• 27:42Speaker 01

  You beat me to it. We're there. There's no question. They're way beyond. Travis Kelsey is married to Taylor fucking Swift. She is a worldwide phenomena. That, look at that. Respectfully, I'm a fan of the Mannings in general and I've enjoyed the Manning cast in the past, not right now, but in the past. And they're not in the same category. The Kelseys are next level.

• 28:09Bill Simmons?

  Really tough to hold off the Kelseys, especially when they're doing the Sunday ticket ad with Jason Kelsey and his wife, who also somehow has a podcast. Yeah. I, I think it's already happened.

• 28:18Speaker 01

  I, I see that ad. I'm not, tell you right now, every time I see it, I'm like, oh, I, can I, where's my invitation? I want to go to that. I, I want to go see.

• 28:26Bill Simmons?

  Because they have food.

• 28:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, they have, it looks great. It's a great spread. I think they're doing a great job with that fake hosting a party concept.

• 28:34Bill Simmons?

  Mike from Farmingville wants knows Miles, Miles Garrett, the greatest ever NFL good stats, bad team player.

• 28:41Speaker 01

  Oh, wow.

• 28:42Bill Simmons?

  And he says, he's never played a meaningful game in the NFL. That's not true. He has played in a playoff game. They even won a playoff game. He's played in three playoff games. But he said, every other all time great defensive player, Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor, Deion Sanders, name it, led teams to championships. He spent his career compiling great stats in games that didn't matter. Now he goes ring chasing with the Rams who already won a championship.

• 29:02Speaker 01

  I'm going to say names that feel disrespectful. Is, did, what was the most important game LaDainian Tomlinson ever played in? I'm not, I'm not suggesting, I don't want to be disrespectful to LaDainian Tomlinson.

• 29:14Bill Simmons?

  He was in the playoffs a few times and yeah, that's.

• 29:18Speaker 01

  I mean, Miles Garrett was in the playoffs.

• 29:20Bill Simmons?

  I just don't think football is like basketball, except for quarterbacks.

• 29:24Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 29:24Bill Simmons?

  You could be the greatest defensive end of all time. And if your offense sucks and your coach sucks, it's not going to matter. And he's now in the position where on the Rams with a really good team. If he's healthy, we'll, we'll see how he can affect everything. Reggie went, went to the Packers and that was the last piece of his career and all that stuff. And they ended up winning.

• 29:44Speaker 01

  It feels like there should be a quarterback in this category.

• 29:47Bill Simmons?

  That's how I felt.

• 29:48Speaker 01

  You're not going to find anybody that rivals the all time great status that Garrett has, has rightfully kind of earned. We can't think of any quarterbacks like Dan Marino. Is that, but Dan Marino did play in a Super Bowl.

• 30:04Bill Simmons?

  All the people who follow this shit say that the stuff Miles Garrett has been doing for the last eight, nine years is out of control and just double teamed all the time, teams running away on the other side of him. And I don't think it's fair. Like, the Patriots had a couple of great football players when I was younger. Like, Andre Tippett was incredible. And we really only had one awesome season with him where he was at the forefront and they won the three straight playoff games in a row and went to the Super Bowl. But he was awesome and nobody, nobody outside of New England barely even knew who he was. Um, because our team always sucked.

• 30:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, somebody will listen to this and, and have a good answer and send it to you. And then we'll, we'll have some good, you know, it's a, it's an interesting question. I just, I think my instinct is the same as yours, which is can't really do that to football players, can we?

• 30:52Bill Simmons?

  No, I will say-

• 30:53Speaker 01

  Maybe there's somebody we're not thinking of.

• 30:54Bill Simmons?

  If we're talking about best defensive players in our lifetime, it's LT and then everybody else for me.

• 31:00Speaker 01

  That's a fact. That's a fact.

• 31:01Bill Simmons?

  I, I actually think like LT, his teams would have won no matter who the fuck was on it. He just wouldn't have figured it out.

• 31:07Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 31:08Bill Simmons?

  I've never seen anybody like that, dude.

• 31:10Speaker 01

  Me either.

• 31:11Bill Simmons?

  Like, to me, it's, it's him and Jerry Rice are the two that I just feel like are above everyone I've ever seen at their positions by far. Um, all right, we're gonna take a break, come back, do a couple more. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Here's something to look forward to between kickoffs this Sunday. With Sunday Spectacular, FanDuel Rewards Club members can unlock exclusive rewards throughout the day with offers tailored to their Rewards Club level. Depending on your level, you can unlock things like profit boosts, reward boxes, point boosts, challenges, choose your reward offers, choose your reward, much more. The best part, new rewards drop throughout Sunday's game. So there's always something new to discover as the day unfolds. Check out Sunday Spectacular in the FanDuel

• 31:56Bill Simmons?

  app, only on FanDuel Rewards Club. Make this your most rewarding season ever with FanDuel. 21-plus select states or 18-plus DC or Wyoming. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you. So they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now, that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. All right, a couple more mail back questions.

• 32:40Bill Simmons?

  Steve from OKC said, "You frequently talk about the 90-10 rule with star athletes. Use Westbrook as the example. Is Baker, the NFL Westbrook, an athlete who's great and can wield victories without a great supporting cast, bad coaching, but is 10% is his decision making, which is like getting hit by a truck in a crosswalk?" I don't think Baker's a great athlete and I don't think it counts.

• 33:00Speaker 01

  That's respectfully disrespectful to Russell Westbrook.

• 33:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, Russell Westbrook is a top 60 player ever.

• 33:08Speaker 01

  Yes, yeah, not. He averaged a triple double for a season. He didn't, he won the MVP that season, undeserved, but he did do that. He did do that.

• 33:19Bill Simmons?

  There's a weird crossroads for Baker right now because he really was two quarterbacks last year. The guy from the first six, seven, eight games, whatever that was. And then he had all the injuries and fell apart. And then the guy we've watched this year, which has just been incredibly sloppy with the basket, with the football and the basketball, any ball.

• 33:40Speaker 01

  Any ball he's touching, he's sloppy with.

• 33:42Bill Simmons?

  But even like in that, in that post Lightning drive, he had Ibuka for the winning touchdown and he just overthrew it. Like, and he used to, last year, he was making that play. Jeff from Cincinnati said, "One of your great underrated bits of the past was when you referred to Ryan Tannehill as Lauren Tannehill's husband." I gotta be honest, I didn't remember that. It's time to bring it back for Justin Herbert, who should now be called Madison Beer's fiance.

• 34:07Speaker 01

  Oh, were they engaged?

• 34:09Bill Simmons?

  I don't even know. I just thought that was really mean.

• 34:13Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 34:16Bill Simmons?

  Alex from Hamilton, Ontario says, "We're all quite to be struggling to find historical comp for the Herbert experience. Why isn't it Kirk Cousins? He sends all the stats of their career stats per 17 games, career win percentage, completion percentage, yards per seven, like, it's actually pretty crazy how similar it is. 29 TDs per 17 games for Cousins, 29 for Herbert. Like, it's pretty nuts. QB rating's almost the same. I was shocked. And then the playoff stuff is obviously bad. And then he decides, maybe this is disrespectful to Kirk."

• 34:50Speaker 01

  He's right!

• 34:51Bill Simmons?

  He beats him in all this stuff. He has a playoff win.

• 34:54Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 34:55Bill Simmons?

  He can always say he beat Justin when he was 38 and Herbert was 28. And then he suggests this nickname, Justin's Second Cousins.

• 35:01Speaker 01

  A+!

• 35:06Bill Simmons?

  Second Cousins. I love it.

• 35:09Speaker 01

  Nobody can, can disrespect Kirk Cousins' career. Nobody can. You like that? I like that. Yeah, I mean, it's an incredible career. All the money that he's made and going from place to place. And each time he leaves, the, the place takes a, like, look at Atlanta. Atlanta would be dying to have Kirk Cousins right now. Completely dysfunctional.

• 35:28Bill Simmons?

  They just had to pay him $75 million next season, but they could have had him.

• 35:31Speaker 01

  They had him under contract. They had him.

• 35:33Bill Simmons?

  Hmm. Alex S. had a Herbert thing. He, he thinks he's Gen Z Jay Cutler. Big arm, Hollywood wife, girlfriend, limited success and excuses. Give this to the world. I like Second Cousins. I'm going with that.

• 35:49Speaker 01

  Me too. Yeah.

• 35:50Bill Simmons?

  And then, um, one more Herbert thing. I've been talking about the nerd kings all year, how Herbert lost it, Jordan Love gained it. Like, great timing for me with that whole, with that, that whole bit. Who is the opposite of that player in the NFL? The guy who doesn't grade well analytically, but the eye test tells a different story. NBA version was obviously Jaylen Brown, who is in the NFL. It's clearly Jalen Hurts, right?

• 36:13Speaker 01

  Oh, wow.

• 36:14Bill Simmons?

  Is Jalen Hurts the Jaylen Brown of the NFL?

• 36:16Speaker 01

  We watch him.

• 36:18Bill Simmons?

  They both won a title.

• 36:20Speaker 01

  Yeah. It's pretty good.

• 36:23Bill Simmons?

  It's, it, it never feels great, but the, the results are there. His fans would rather have him than not have him. It doesn't really make sense conventionally with how we look at the stats for those positions.

• 36:37Speaker 01

  Even the touchdown that he threw to beat the Titans at the end, that was a great play and a great pass.

• 36:42Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 36:43Speaker 01

  It was a great catch also, but, okay.

• 36:46Bill Simmons?

  So it's Jalen Hurts, I think, is our answer.

• 36:48Speaker 01

  That's a good one.

• 36:49Bill Simmons?

  I like that one. Anthony in Toms River wants to know, um, how I feel historically about Jalen Brunson hosting SNL.

• 36:56Speaker 01

  Historically?

• 36:57Bill Simmons?

  Which is happening on Saturday and who are the best athletes ever to host the show.

• 37:01Speaker 01

  Okay, all right.

• 37:02Bill Simmons?

  Does he have a chance to crack it? So I went through it. I think there's like 33, 34 athletes who have hosted this show in the last 50-plus years. People would have Jordan as one of the four best. And I actually don't think his was one of the four best. I don't, I don't even think that's a hot take. I'll go in reverse order for who I thought was the best.

• 37:21Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 37:22Bill Simmons?

  Joe Montana.

• 37:23Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 37:24Bill Simmons?

  The famous sketch of when you could hear the person's inner monologue and, and, and Phil Hartman's on a date, I think, with Jan Hooks. And they're like, "Would you like to get a glass of wine?" And then it cuts to him and he's like, "I'd like to jump your bones." And it's like, everything in your head? And then Joe Montana's the roommate and he comes in and they're like, "Hey, Bob, where are you gonna go?" And he's like, "I'm gonna go upstairs and masturbate." And then the thought bubble is like, "I'm gonna go upstairs and masturbate." It was just groundbreaking stuff. Remember? We were in college.

• 37:58Speaker 01

  I do remember.

• 37:59Bill Simmons?

  We were like, "Oh, my God, Joe Montana." So he has to be fourth.

• 38:02Speaker 01

  All right.

• 38:03Bill Simmons?

  Uh, Peyton Manning was really good.

• 38:05Speaker 01

  Peyton Manning's outstanding. Yes.

• 38:07Bill Simmons?

  I have him, I have him third. Bill Russell, second.

• 38:12Speaker 01

  I don't remember Bill Russell.

• 38:14Bill Simmons?

  They did like an eight-minute SNL sketch called The Black Shadow, which was a parody of The White Shadow with Bill Russell. And it was an absolute tour de force.

• 38:23Speaker 01

  You need to send that around to the internet. The internet needs to see this. It definitely exists.

• 38:27Bill Simmons?

  It bounces around every once in a while. That, and, and he was on Miami Vice playing Bernard King's father was another Bill Russell thing. And then, the best one ever, it's almost not fair, but The Rock is the best athlete turned host ever. He was, he did a Barack Obama, The Rock Obama, whatever that one was. But he was just ridiculous as the host. So that'd be my top four. Any ones you would throw in or is that a good four for you?

• 38:51Speaker 01

  No, I'm, I'm fine with it. Uh, the MJ was more like-

• 38:55Bill Simmons?

  It was more a moment.

• 38:57Speaker 01

  Exactly. We felt like we were getting an, an inside look at a version of MJ that didn't exist because he was such a hero to us and that, you know, the world was so different in terms of how we, what was accessible to us in terms of consuming this, this person and persona. And he showed a real, genuine sense of humor. And he showed, and they were like, "Oh, MJ." It just added to the hagiography. Put that man up. The sainthood of MJ.

• 39:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, all we had to digest MJ was the games. Going to a game, um, the posters and the ads. And then every once in a while, he'd go on a talk show or he'd sit down with Ahmad Rashad. And other than that, we had no idea what was going on with him.

• 39:38Speaker 01

  Pregame and postgame interviews were all monotone, right to the point.

• 39:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you're right. It's a really good point. That was the first time, SNL was the first time we're like, "Oh, I didn't know he did this too."

• 39:49Speaker 01

  Right.

• 39:50Bill Simmons?

  You know, "Oh, he has a sense of humor." Like, we just really didn't know. Um, Hunter Price wants-

• 39:55Speaker 01

  I like this question. I'm happy with that one. Thank you.

• 39:56Bill Simmons?

  Hunter Price wants to know if the new Colts owner-

• 40:01Bill Simmons?

  Callie Gordon Ursay? Callie Ursay Gordon?

• 40:04Speaker 01

  I'm worried about where this is going. Go ahead.

• 40:06Bill Simmons?

  New Colts owner has ever surfaced on my new owner syndrome radar.

• 40:10Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 40:11Bill Simmons?

  I mean, I have loved the new owner syndrome forever.

• 40:14Speaker 01

  I'm glad you asked this in that manner.

• 40:16Bill Simmons?

  I know Indianapolis is the kind of non-threatening friend in the group that nobody wants to rag on. But trading two first round picks for Sauce Gardner last year was indefensible. Who trades a massive amount of draft capital for a player who has zero evidence of helping a team win? Also, the whole listening into the coach headset is ridiculous. Does she make the new owner syndrome list? He didn't even mention the taking notes on the sideline.

• 40:39Speaker 01

  That's the most remarkable of all. How can we get access to those notes? That's, that's, that's the starting point.

• 40:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, she should publish those on Instagram.

• 40:48Speaker 01

  But the question that he posed, the big dummy, that's the general manager of Jacksonville did that. He traded all, you know,

• 40:57Bill Simmons?

  Oh, for Travis Hunter, yeah.

• 40:59Speaker 01

  He just, he did that. That guy, I can't, I can't pull his name off the top of my head.

• 41:04Bill Simmons?

  Never do trades like that in football. You, in football, you just want as many bites on the apple as possible. And if you're putting that much capital towards somebody, that person better be incredible.

• 41:15Speaker 01

  It's why we gave the Browns credit for the Miles Garrett trade.

• 41:18Bill Simmons?

  Right. First, second, third, and Jared verse for a guy who's 30, who obviously wasn't 100% healthy.

• 41:24Speaker 01

  Yeah. Good job by them.

• 41:26Bill Simmons?

  My only thing with Callie Gordon, I didn't like when she was so candid about the coach and GM are done if this doesn't go well. Like, it's just that-

• 41:35Speaker 01

  The GM deserves to go. Chris Ballard, he's a-

• 41:39Bill Simmons?

  He's been manipulating the press forever.

• 41:41Speaker 01

  Forever.

• 41:43Bill Simmons?

  There's, there's like a feature about him every year and a half. But I didn't, I thought it was weird to put it that way because I thought it just brought undue pressure to a team that, you know, had a quarterback coming back from an Achilles that nobody had high hopes for anyway. And then a lot of the other stuff just looks, look at me to me. It's like, look at me, taking notes. Here I am. Look at me.

• 42:05Speaker 01

  This, this happens in the NFL, though. They're, they're, they're, they're the dumbest. The owners in the NFL are, are by far, I feel like, I mean, the Haslums, the stuff that they do, how cheap, cheap they get. The, the people in Tennessee who drove out Vrabel so they could enjoy this half decade of a shit sandwich. It might, it'll probably be a full decade of a shit sandwich.

• 42:29Speaker 01

  James Gladstone, that's the general manager of the Jaguars.

• 42:32Bill Simmons?

  That trade was horrible.

• 42:33Speaker 01

  Covering himself in shit glory.

• 42:36Bill Simmons?

  Speaking of the eat a fat dick segment, Noah from Boise, Idaho said, my question is this, he's a, he's a Packer fan.

• 42:45Bill Simmons?

  I'm, I'm sorry, he's a Steelers fan. Why is the sad Aaron Rodgers retirement tour happening on the Steelers? He won the Packers the Super Bowl. They should be enduring this pain. I've been listening to McShay talk about how this is the best draft class in 10 years. Let's blow it up, escape the Tom and curse. Time is now. It is a good point. The retirement tour should not be like, this is like, this guy wasn't on our team during the, during the salad years. Why do we have to deal with this guy?

• 43:13Speaker 01

  That's great. I love it.

• 43:17Bill Simmons?

  I agree with you. Brandon Draper

• 43:21Bill Simmons?

  is upset because the Lions lost to the electric Jaden Daniels in his rookie of the year season. And now he's going to have his second straight year where he doesn't play a year of meaningful football.

• 43:30Speaker 01

  Oh, he's upset? I'm upset too.

• 43:33Bill Simmons?

  Well, they lost a shot at the title because of a guy who had one good season. Is that even worse than the team like the 90s Knicks always losing to Jordan or Allen falling short to Mahomes? It sucks to miss out on our title shot because of a one-hit wonder. Is that fair?

• 43:49Speaker 01

  Sure. Yeah. It, it, it's fair. They should have planned better. They had a bye week. They got to watch all of Jaden Daniels. They got to watch Washington. They had a home game. They game planned poorly and they executed it in the second half especially. Every time Jameer Gibbs touched the ball, he gained like 11 and a half yards. And they couldn't figure out how to get him the ball and golf through five picks. Like, what do you, what do you, play, play better? What do you want me to say?

• 44:16Bill Simmons?

  I knew you'd have a reaction like that, which is why I had the question. Does, here's another mean Jaden Daniels question.

• 44:24Bill Simmons?

  He said, much like Mr. Joe House, I'm a long suffering fan of the Washington football team.

• 44:31Bill Simmons?

  He wonders if Jay Daniels is not built for the NFL. I know you have concerns about that too. But he's perfect for flag football.

• 44:39Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 44:40Bill Simmons?

  Is the answer for Washington? Draft the new QB, release Jaden Daniels, and he could become the face of USA flag football and get his soul back. And gets to play backyard football without getting hit. We get our ideal QB. He asked, Joe House, would you rather watch Jaden Daniels suffer through an injury play career with the commanders? Or be the face of Team USA as we dominate the world in Olympic football?

• 45:03Speaker 01

  God, I hate this question.

• 45:05Bill Simmons?

  I figured you would. You don't have to answer. I thought it was-

• 45:07Speaker 01

  I don't know what to do. I mean, I, I mean, this guy right here, give it to this guy.

• 45:11Bill Simmons?

  Isn't there a way to just

• 45:14Bill Simmons?

  not have him take huge hits all the time and have things happen?

• 45:18Speaker 01

  The, here's the thing. His injured elbow was because he fell down. He didn't, he didn't take a hit. He ran for almost 70 yards against Dallas and he was being super smart about the way that he ran. And there, that offense was humming. The offense was going to be this season formidable. Because, you know, they, they, that Antonio Williams is revealing himself as a guy who can get separation. Chipped the tight end as soon as he gets over his latest hamstring issue. Even with the offensive line compromise, but it's over now. Cosme's in concussion protocol. It's the, it's Mariota time. But I do wonder.

• 46:00Speaker 01

  He could come back if they can get, you know, a modern brace on that elbow.

• 46:05Bill Simmons?

  So second injury to that elbow, right?

• 46:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, but it's just a dislocated elbow. It looks grotesque and I'm not suggesting that it, but he can play. He can still play if they can protect that elbow and keep it from popping out. He's not, his legs aren't hurt. His throwing arm isn't hurt. And he was making good decisions this season in terms of, of how he scrambled and the hits he was willing to take. He wasn't putting himself in harm's way. He just fell down. He fell down on that. And, and it's clear that, you know, the internet doctors have said, you know, that's,

• 46:37Bill Simmons?

  Oh, internet doctors.

• 46:38Speaker 01

  That can happen. That, it can pop out again because, you know, at some point he'll get surgery to tighten the whole structure. But he doesn't have to do it this season because they have braces and people want to know why wasn't he wearing a brace? In the first place, so it didn't happen. I, it feels like a fair question to me. I don't know. Maybe he wasn't comfortable with it. Maybe they didn't experiment with it. But I honestly think he will come back this season and, and play and be effective. That's what I think.

• 47:02Bill Simmons?

  So the reason I want to do that question is I completely agree with you. And I think people overreacted to the injury if they felt like this was an injury prone Jalen, Jaden Daniels thing now. Same, same thing twice with the elbow. Fixable. And I thought he looked good in the games I watched. I thought he was effective in the second half of the first game. And then in the Dallas game, he was, he was doing stuff like, to me, I would have much more concern about somebody like Penix. Having like his third ACL surgery or somebody like Tua who clearly can't play anymore. Like,

• 47:34Speaker 01

  Right.

• 47:35Bill Simmons?

  I don't think there's enough evidence yet that you can't create an awesome offense around Daniels. And if anything, like if I was another team, it's like, oh, you, you're worried about him long-term? We'll take him and then build an offensive line and some sort of infrastructure around him to protect him. But I, I thought he was really good before he got hurt, at least what I saw.

• 47:56Speaker 01

  Injury prone is that he wasn't injured in his rookie, and he took shots his rookie season. He took the shots and we've seen the shots in, over his college career. And that was the big question mark. Will Washington take Drake May or, or Jaden? And you see the shots that Jaden took in his college career. You know, can he handle that in the NFL? He did. He missed 10 games last season with three different injuries. The elbow was, was, was twice. And now he's going to miss some games because of the same elbow. But if he comes back in three to four weeks and plays the balance of the season out and shows, you know, that this offense, then I'm, I'm okay. Because they have to make a decision with, with his extension. But this is probably more time than people care to hear on the Bills.

• 48:41Bill Simmons?

  Well, I mean, there's a relevant question with Washington, though. Do you want to be a bottom four worst team?

• 48:47Bill Simmons?

  And maybe that makes the Daniels decision easier.

• 48:51Speaker 01

  It's too early to say. The problem is that-

• 48:54Bill Simmons?

  They're going to be bad.

• 48:55Speaker 01

  Their, their, their defense is bad. They don't have the bodies. They don't have the talent in the secondary. We might be discussing that in a little while on this program.

• 49:04Bill Simmons?

  I'm in Boston right now.

• 49:06Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 49:07Bill Simmons?

  I made one bet on Fandel. One bet only.

• 49:10Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 49:13Bill Simmons?

  The Miami Dolphins to have the worst record in football. What do you think the odds were?

• 49:19Speaker 01

  It has, you have to lay juice now. There's no way that it's plus money because it was plus money before the season. They in Arizona, I have the same bet. I bet both Arizona and Miami to have the worst record and it was north of two to one. Now is it minus 160? What is it?

• 49:36Bill Simmons?

  It was plus 110.

• 49:38Speaker 01

  Get out of here. What time of day? When?

• 49:40Bill Simmons?

  An hour ago.

• 49:42Speaker 01

  Oh, I live in a place where FanDuel is legal. And I'll just leave it at that.

• 49:48Bill Simmons?

  When we go to a break before we do football picks, you could put it in.

• 49:51Speaker 01

  Can I borrow? I need 10,000. Can I borrow?

• 49:54Bill Simmons?

  Plus 110. What are we doing?

• 49:56Speaker 01

  Whatever the rules are in terms of legal gambling, I know I'm allowed to borrow money from you to make a give. Are we kidding? Plus 110? That is outrageous.

• 50:05Bill Simmons?

  What do you think the odds were for them to go 0 and 17?

• 50:09Speaker 01

  Bet it. Who cares? What are, what are the odds? I mean, is it plus 210? I don't know.

• 50:16Bill Simmons?

  No, it's better. Come on, plus two. 0 and 17, not winning a game.

• 50:20Speaker 01

  Yeah. Have you, has anybody watched this football team? They don't have professional.

• 50:25Bill Simmons?

  It's 10 to one for them to go 17.

• 50:27Speaker 01

  Better, like that means you're not paying attention. If, if that price is out there, go through their, the, their roster and the schedule and come up with a game that they're going to lose by, by less than a touchdown. Find the one.

• 50:42Bill Simmons?

  It's hard to find a game where they're even going to be plus three.

• 50:45Speaker 01

  They play the Jets twice. Guess what? The Jets are fucking good. They're, I mean, you know, they're, they're, they're,

• 50:50Bill Simmons?

  They're talented.

• 50:51Speaker 01

  They should, they're talented. They have talent on both sides of the ball.

• 50:53Bill Simmons?

  Not, not in the headsets. Um, this is a really long, ambitious question from a Bills fan named Drew, who wants to know why we don't talk about the Buffalo sports curse with the Clippers?

• 51:07Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 51:07Bill Simmons?

  Because they came from Buffalo and how Buffalo has escaped all blame here. And he mentions, this is the last 60 years. The Bills missed the first Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. Tim Horton died in a car crash after a game. Sabres lost the 75 cup final. Braves moved. Clint Morcheck's throat slashed by a skate. Wide right to the Giants, lost an MLB expansion bid. Three Super Bowl losses in a row. NHL, it was four in a row, but three in a row after wide right.

• 51:39Speaker 01

  After wide right.

• 51:40Bill Simmons?

  NHL finals, the skate and the crease, the whole game. Music City miracle. Flyers phantom goal through the side of the net in the playoffs. That was a good one. 17 year playoff drought for the Bills. Traded Hasek in 01. Lose to Steelers backup, missed 2005 playoffs. Lost game seven, he's final, lost to Carolina. Lot, all kinds of terrible Sabre stuff, including guys leaving and 14 year playoff drought. They lost the Connor McDavid lottery. They lost the Chiefs to, uh, basically three years in a row, including the 13 seconds. Damar Hamlin, uh, four Chiefs losses, actually. The OT playoff loss last year and then last year in hockey, the game seven OT loss.

• 52:24Bill Simmons?

  And he said, by the way, there's way more if you want some. And he wants to know if there's any way to shake the Buffalo bad luck, escape the ghost of President Lee McKinley. This makes a lot of sense with the Clippers. They were, they already had the Buffalo stink on them. And then they moved and like tripled the stink.

• 52:43Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 52:43Bill Simmons?

  And I do, I do think there's something there.

• 52:45Speaker 01

  I don't know.

• 52:46Bill Simmons?

  This is, this is, this is the pressure for Josh Allen now. I don't think anyone has more curse removal potential in any sport than Josh Allen.

• 52:53Speaker 01

  Well, I like that.

• 52:54Bill Simmons?

  Even in Cleveland, like LeBron did win in 16. So if the Browns won the Super Bowl, you still at least had the, the LeBron title.

• 53:02Speaker 01

  Buffalo getting to, to the Super Bowl, Buffalo getting to the NHL, like, I mean, are we really? That, that's not a curse.

• 53:09Bill Simmons?

  He's just saying nothing, nothing good ever happened to get us over the hump. They didn't win anything.

• 53:14Speaker 01

  You got Josh Allen as your quarterback.

• 53:16Bill Simmons?

  Buffalo title.

• 53:17Speaker 01

  I understand that. I, I got it. But getting to the, to the, to the Super Bowl, four straight years, that's, that's pretty good. That's pretty good.

• 53:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. My, so my counters, my counters to Drew. A, Josh Allen was a gift.

• 53:32Speaker 01

  A gift.

• 53:32Bill Simmons?

  B, those Jim Kelly teams were awesome. Everybody loved those teams. They were super fun. They just happened to be in the worst possible pre-salary cap era against these different juggernauts, right? But those were still memorable, awesome teams. Three, thank God the Clippers left. You want to deal with that team the last 60 years? 50 years? That was a drive to the airport, go eat a fat dick team. I think, I think you were the big winners. So it's not all bad.

• 54:00Speaker 01

  Not all bad. That's what I would say.

• 54:02Bill Simmons?

  Last email from Payton in Charlotte said, uh, love the pod. You've built an impressive podcast empire. Its foundations are shaky. You're in Sal's use of the term zag is incredible. The whole point of zig, when everyone else zags is that zig is the contrarian move. Bill, you somehow zagged on the word zig, planted your flag on zag, and now zag is market corrected zig. And you always talk about the zag, which feels historic adjacent. Is this the apex mountain of the Bill Simmons language issues? From Payton in Charlotte. So he's saying I should have said zig.

• 54:41Speaker 01

  Is he right?

• 54:43Bill Simmons?

  I think he's right.

• 54:44Speaker 01

  I think he's wrong. The zig isn't the contrarian move. The zag is the contrarian move.

• 54:49Bill Simmons?

  I thought zag was second zag is the zag.

• 54:52Speaker 01

  Zig is, is.

• 54:54Bill Simmons?

  Zig is straight, zag is the move.

• 54:56Speaker 01

  I thought, I don't know. Now we have to look it up. Did you look it up? Do you know the answer to this?

• 55:01Bill Simmons?

  I didn't look it up. I, I thought he was right. As usual, I took, I took a listener for, for the face value. Maybe I should have Googled this.

• 55:08Speaker 01

  You know what we need? We need a cunning linguist. We need a cunning linguist to come help us with this, Bill Simmons. Let's get one. Let's get, you get them on the pod or have a cunning linguist, send us the correct. I, I think you're using it right.

• 55:23Bill Simmons?

  I feel like zag is the right use, but what do I know?

• 55:26Speaker 01

  I definitely don't know.

• 55:27Bill Simmons?

  Thanks to everybody who's sending those questions to [email protected].

• 55:32Speaker 01

  Great job.

• 55:32Bill Simmons?

  House, you're going to take a break? We're going to, you're going to go see if your wife will make a stew tonight. We're going to talk to Pellicero and, uh, we're going to come back and do picks. I'll see you in a second.

• 55:41Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 55:42Bill Simmons?

  And now it's time for a special part of today's episode brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket. With NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV. You get every game, every Sunday, all in one place. This is my best friend in the world. And since YouTube has crowned me their CMO, Chief Multi-View Officer, it's my job to tell you which four games to serve a spot in the multi-view this week. All right. So looking at the slate, we have a lot of early games on Sunday. I think Chargers Buffalo has to be in your multi-view. Let's see what's going on with the Chargers. Buffalo is going to score some points. Can't lose with that one. Pats Jacksonville. Really, really telling game from both teams. I think Jacksonville needs a little more than Pats, but I think that's going to be a really good one. Houston Indy?

• 56:27Bill Simmons?

  Is Houston really going to go 0 and 3? Let's throw that in there. That's a great one. And then last but not least, Carolina Cleveland has to be the most fascinating early game of, of week one, of week three is Deshaun, is this for real? Is Carolina's offense for real? What's going to happen? It's in Cleveland? How are the fans going to react? Can't wait to watch it. That's the beauty of multi-view. Instead of flipping channels every two minutes, you just get to build your own Sunday slate. New users can get NFL Sunday Ticket for eight payments of just $30 a month. Get every game, every Sunday, all in one place with NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV. New users pay $240 or eight, eight non-cancellable payments of $30 a month. First charge at purchase. Availability varies with NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games and YouTube TV for local and national games. YouTube TV required. Terms, restrictions and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded.

• 57:12Bill Simmons?

  No refunds. All right, Tom Pelissero is here. You can watch and listen to him on the Ringer NFL Show all the time as well as Pop. When's the next Netflix game?

• 57:21Speaker 01

  Thanksgiving Eve. A little break here. Packers Rams in LA.

• 57:25Bill Simmons?

  That's a don't get divorced game. My wife, my wife's not happy about that one at all. She can't believe it.

• 57:32Speaker 01

  Imagine being my wife and finding out, hey, yeah, you got this new job. Uh, you're going to be gone for Thanksgiving and Christmas.

• 57:39Bill Simmons?

  Oof.

• 57:39Speaker 01

  Kids were not, not thrilled.

• 57:41Bill Simmons?

  You're there for the other holidays? The Arbor Day? I don't know. Valentine's Day?

• 57:45Speaker 01

  Yeah, really important one.

• 57:47Bill Simmons?

  We're going to do a new gimmick. You're going to open a, normally I open the six pack up on this podcast. You're going to open a six pack. We're going to do six things that you're fascinated in. As we tape this, Thursday, late afternoon, Eastern time. Jackson Dart Giants. Tell me what's going on. Do they feel like the season's over? How do they fix this? Can they fix it?

• 58:06Speaker 01

  There's a lot of moving parts right now with the Giants. For right now, they paid Jameis Winston. He's going to be the starting quarterback. Jake Hayner's in line to back him up this week. But I would not be surprised at all if we see them add a quarterback over the next few weeks here. Jameis's play and how things go for the Giants is going to determine what type of quarterback and what role that guy's in. If you look at their schedule, you couldn't ask for a better time to be figuring out, can we win a game with our backup quarterback? You got Tennessee at home, Arizona at home and Washington, when Jaden Daniels is probably still not back. I mean, those are the best three games you could possibly have. You know, are they three and two at the end of that? Are they one and four?

• 58:49Speaker 01

  How does that influence exactly what Joe Shane and John Harbaugh want to do? I would tell you, they definitely want to add a quarterback, whether that's a younger guy, whether that's a veteran quarterback. There's obviously not a lot of like legit walk in the door starters, unless you're going to drag, you know, Derek Carr or Ryan Tannehill or somebody off the couch and hope for the best. So you're probably realistically bringing in somebody to be behind Jameis at least initially, but they are going to try to add another quarterback here. And again, the spot that they're in will probably kind of dictate exactly what quarterback that is.

• 59:20Bill Simmons?

  And any guy they bring in probably isn't good.

• 59:25Speaker 02

  Well,

• 59:25Bill Simmons?

  It's not like there's good quarterbacks just sitting there in the grocery store waiting to get plucked out of the aisle.

• 59:30Speaker 02

  Right, unless it's, you know, Joe Flacco a couple of years ago and he's sitting there, or it's Carson Wentz last year. And like, you have a guy, like, there's circumstances. Right now, though, if you look on the street, Bill, it's like, you have Russell Wilson, who looks very comfortable wearing a suit and looking dapper on TV, talking about the game. Jimmy Garoppolo is out there. I don't know how much, you know, how desperate Jimmy is.

• 59:51Bill Simmons?

  Why is Jimmy Garoppolo out there?

• 59:53Speaker 02

  I don't know.

• 59:53Bill Simmons?

  Did he just not want to get hit anymore? Like, what's the deal?

• 59:56Speaker 02

  He's made a lot of money. He has made a lot of money. He's had a lot of injuries. And unless it's like, the perfect situation, I don't think Jimmy just wants to come back and, you know, cash a $5 million check to go be a backup somewhere right now. Coming in and playing for the Giants, if they show that like, the rest of the roster can stay healthy, I do think that that would be something that would intrigue him. But you, don't you already kind of have that player? Like, you've got Jameis. It's that, not the Jameis we saw Monday night. That's the worst Jameis we've ever seen. You know, Matt Nagy, I thought, did a good job in the game. It's like, just get him some easy passes. Oh, he one hopped a ball into the flat?

• 1:00:32Bill Simmons?

  That was unbelievable.

• 1:00:34Speaker 02

  It's like, three touchdowns, three interceptions. You can, you can live with that, because you kind of know what you're getting. I think we'll see a better Jameis.

• 1:00:39Bill Simmons?

  It was like the Chuck Knoblock, Steve Sax kind of throws.

• 1:00:42Speaker 02

  Completely. The yips, where it's just like, it looked like something cracked. No, he had one throw over the middle that was pretty good, but all the other ones, like, guys are open. You know, credit Nagy for it. Like, he got guys open and Jameis couldn't deliver. I think that they'll have a game plan that's built around him. He'll actually get reps this week. He'll play better. But I don't think that that discourages them from trying to get another quarterback in the room, because right now, you know, Hayner was the only other guy. He's now year two. He's on the practice squad at this point, barring the Madden somebody before Sunday.

• 1:01:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the last level of when a quarterback is really bad in the game, is when the receivers are just stopping their route, because the ball has no chance, and you just see the life leave their body. They're just, even the plays, the ball's still bouncing, and they're just like, oh, my God, shoot me in the head. Please.

• 1:01:28Speaker 02

  The body language where the arms kind of go.

• 1:01:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they're just so devastated by it. This leads to my second one, that you have, that I wanted to hit about, what do the Chargers do if this keeps falling apart?

• 1:01:41Bill Simmons?

  There's, in the basketball side of me, football doesn't work this way. The basketball side of me would be like, yeah, could, could there be like, Dart and three first round picks? And do you get into the Herbert race if you're the Giants and try to just Godfather off of them to save your season because you like their team? I don't think they like their team that much, but it does make me wonder with the Chargers, Harbaugh will press the eject button, right? Because that's his history, if he doesn't like this team. They committed to Harbaugh, to Herbert, but what are, what are your moves if this, if they go 0-3 and this is just clearly not going to work? What happens?

• 1:02:19Speaker 02

  I mean, going into the season, you're looking at the schedule and going, okay, couple of games at home, you know, you got the Cardinals and the Raiders, like, those are easy wins. All right, now the, the meat of the schedule hits week three when you go to Buffalo. Now they're 0-2. They didn't look good. Forget even losing the games to teams that weren't good last year. Like, they didn't look good. The offense is just

• 1:02:39Bill Simmons?

  Slow.

• 1:02:40Speaker 02

  all over the place. It looks sloppy, and the pre-snap penalties and all these things. So now you're 0-2, staring down like the murderer's row of your schedule, starting out with the Bills, then they got the Seahawks. I mean, it's, it's brutal. And so, all right, if 0-2 becomes 0-3 and becomes 0-4, what, what are the moves left? Like, Jim already made his biggest move he could by firing the OC and the offensive line coach after last year. You bring in Mike McDaniel, who's supposed to fix everything. It doesn't look great right now. Jim's not the kind of guy, like, he has no familiarity with that offense. It's not like he's going to take a deep look at it and go, hey, Mike, we got to tweak X, Y, and Z. Like, that's just not his scheme. That's not what Jim is as a coach.

• 1:03:18Bill Simmons?

  What's he good at at this point as a head coach?

• 1:03:20Speaker 02

  Culture.

• 1:03:21Bill Simmons?

  I'm not saying that, but he's a culture and like, and people manager, right?

• 1:03:25Speaker 02

  He's a CEO type of coach. He wants to manage, just like, you know, he's not even a guy who stands in front of the team a great deal. You know, he's not addressing them every single day. It's more just saying, hey, we're the culture and we're going to be the tough team. Like, that's what he's about. And they just got punched in the face by the Cardinals and the Raiders on their home field. It's a tough spot, because, all right, you're not going to change out the play caller at this point. I mean, you have, you know, Adam Gase is on staff. You could hand it to him. You could hand it to Shane Day. But you're probably more likely to go, it's a new scheme. Everybody's learning it. And we know Mike can call plays, so it's not that. Well, you can't bench your tackles you actually like, invested in, a high pick on Joe Walt, you know, a lot of money in

• 1:04:09Speaker 02

  Rashawn Slater. Like, those guys aren't playing great. You know, your interior offensive line, it's like, it's all these moving parts. I would say this, though, in terms of what they do. I don't think that there's any magic bullet out there for the Chargers. Because even if you start going, it's like, is Jim Harbaugh on the hot seat? They owe him a ton of money for another three years. He signed through 2028 at a pretty high number. The Chargers are not a team that has a history, A, of paying coaches that much money, certainly B, of firing coaches.

• 1:04:38Bill Simmons?

  For paying for their arena.

• 1:04:39Speaker 02

  When they owe him that much money.

• 1:04:40Bill Simmons?

  They're paying for anything. What do they pay for?

• 1:04:41Speaker 02

  They're paying rent to Stan Kroenke. It's so.

• 1:04:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:04:44Speaker 02

  That's just, that's not their history. So, all right, Herbert, well, you can say, yeah, people are going to call him. If they, you know, again, if it goes to 0-5, 1-5, whatever, like, they're going to get calls about Herbert. But I don't see the organization punting on a, what is he, 28-year-old quarterback in favor of a 65-year-old head coach. And on top of that, Herbert's got a no-trade clause. You really think he's eager to say, yeah, I'll get traded to Cleveland or Atlanta and his fiance's in LA? Like, why would he go with that? That, that's what I mean with, like, there's no magic bullet. Like, I don't, there's not like a single move or a trigger of events. It's always felt like, this was kind of the two-year plan here. Bring in Mike, pair him with Justin, have Jim running the thing. They could turn it around. They could upset the Bills. They're having a totally

• 1:05:28Speaker 02

  different conversation next week. But if it continues to unravel, it, it's going to be a really long season in a building where, like everywhere Jim is, his whole philosophy is more is more. It's more work, more hours, more time. Great when you're winning. When you start to lose, that stuff can really weigh on people's shoulders.

• 1:05:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we've talked a lot about Herbert on this podcast, because he's, he's the most fun, he's the most closest to an NBA player in terms of our, people arguing both sides of him, right? The one interesting thing I thought, like, and because there was a lot of dialogue and discourse about him this week, was that he skipped the OTAs, because he was in France with Madison Beer, his girlfriend. And there was like, the hint of, ever since he's met his girlfriend, and he wants to be a celebrity as much as be the quarterback, and he's not in there doing the work. And that was kind of floating around there. Have you, have you heard about that? Like, what, what is, what's the word on him as like, a leader?

• 1:06:25Speaker 02

  I have asked people if that was a big deal. And the answer's been no. It's not like this was a locker room revolt. It wasn't. Remember when, when Aaron Rodgers missed the mini camp and went to Egypt and claimed it was because the schedule had changed? And everyone was like, this doesn't quite add up. And Robert Sala was like, I got to fine you for it. It was like this awkward thing. I didn't get that sense. Also, OTAs are voluntary. But you'd like to think, especially when you're wired like Jim Harbaugh, who's all football all the time, your quarterback's going to be the guy like, leading that culture. But I, I don't get the sense, coaches, players, that people were just like, oh, can't believe that, that he's not around. It wasn't portrayed like that. As, as a leader, you know, he's this.

• 1:07:07Bill Simmons?

  Tom Brady wouldn't have done it. Tom Brady would have been there for the OTAs.

• 1:07:10Speaker 02

  Late years, late years, he was in and out when he was trying to keep.

• 1:07:12Bill Simmons?

  Forty-five at that point.

• 1:07:13Speaker 02

  The family together. Right.

• 1:07:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that was, he was on a seven-hour work schedule. Yeah, but during the Patriots era, like, famously, like, it seems like the most famous, best quarterbacks are like, you get there 5:30 in the morning, they're already there. It's like, that kind of thing. I don't know.

• 1:07:28Speaker 02

  He's also, like, Tom's very, you know, type A in a lot of ways. Like, Herbert was, the whole knock on him, or one of the questions the teams had about him when he was coming out in the draft back in 2020, was, he's this kind of quiet, almost shy kid from Oregon. He's never really left the state. He grew up right by Eugene. He went to Oregon for college. Like, is he going to come out of his shell? I don't think your personality changes a whole lot. That's not to say that he's a bad leader. It's just, if you think that he's going to be the, you know, the guy who's going to start getting in your face and screaming at you. We saw some emotion from him last week. That's just not really him. And I think it's probably unfair to say, like, you got to, you know, when times get tough, change everything about yourself. No, you want to double down on being you.

• 1:08:12Speaker 02

  It's, there's a lot of other stuff going on around him, including the fact he's getting his ass kicked behind that offensive line right now.

• 1:08:19Bill Simmons?

  What's his trade value, just out of curiosity?

• 1:08:22Speaker 02

  If he were willing.

• 1:08:23Bill Simmons?

  Like, how many picks are we talking?

• 1:08:24Speaker 02

  If he were willing to waive the no-trade clause, it, it's, it's got to be three first-round picks and more. I mean, the Russell Wilson trade, if I remember correctly, was two ones, two, maybe two twos, or two and a three, and three players. And that was Russell Wilson in his early 30s, where he had already shown some, like, little signs of maybe he's not at his peak anymore. Where Herbert, I, I know what the numbers are, but he's still a really talented quarterback. And physically, he's ahead of where Russell is, just from, he's got the size, and he's got the arm, he's got the toughness. He's a really tough dude. It would be the house. You would have to give up the house to go and get Justin Herbert.

• 1:09:07Bill Simmons?

  I wouldn't do that. Would you do that? I wouldn't do that.

• 1:09:10Speaker 02

  Look at the desperation around the league. Like, if you went back, if you read my, my story in the sweep last week, the Deshaun Watson backstory, and remind yourself.

• 1:09:18Bill Simmons?

  Excellent.

• 1:09:19Speaker 02

  Thank you. How many teams were trying actively to trade for Deshaun Watson while he was facing dozens of civil allegations of sexual misconduct and a suspension? And your fan base probably wasn't going to like him, and he hadn't played in a year?

• 1:09:35Bill Simmons?

  He had multiple suitors.

• 1:09:36Speaker 02

  There were five teams lined up. They were all willing. I mean, the Dolphins were willing to do it in the heat of it. Then when the charges criminally, there were no charges filed. There were four teams that all agreed to like, the general structure of a trade that the Texans wanted. The Panthers, the Falcons, the Saints, and the Browns were all willing to pay it. And think about that. That's for Deshaun Watson with everything going on, and he hadn't played. Like, this guy and Justin Herbert, maybe the contract never happens again, because it hasn't happened since the Watson trade, but he would have an unbelievable amount of leverage in terms of not just, hey, you got to give up all these picks, but also, why wouldn't he be able to command a five-year, $350 million

• 1:10:18Speaker 02

  contract out of it? He's a really good player, and at that position, and nobody ever becomes available.

• 1:10:26Bill Simmons?

  So that leads to the third thing in the six pack, the what are the traded quarterback options? If I'm looking for somebody to try to either elevate or replace a guy, is are we basically looking at Mac Jones and who else? Who are the guys that you could actually go get?

• 1:10:42Speaker 02

  Mac is one, but that's gonna cost you. I don't think that they do that.

• 1:10:46Bill Simmons?

  So what is that? Is that like a second?

• 1:10:47Speaker 02

  Second or a third? You know, there's not many first round picks to get traded at the deadline. There's rarely trades involve more than a three in season, but it's also a quarterback. If your guy goes down, and I don't know if that one would make sense for the Giants just because the scheme's different, but any of those teams that run the Kyle stuff, you'd probably be interested, but like, that's a, it's a pretty big price to pay for a quarterback who's in a contract year. J.J. McCarthy is another. You know, there's not many dudes.

• 1:11:13Bill Simmons?

  J.J. McCarthy?

• 1:11:15Speaker 02

  He's on his rookie contract.

• 1:11:16Bill Simmons?

  Wow.

• 1:11:17Speaker 02

  Winning record as a starter. All these teams did work on him a couple of years ago. They know the good and the bad of McCarthy. And right now, you know, that's one of the first calls you're gonna make if you lose a guy is to the Vikings, just be like, all right, like, what would it take? Who else are you gonna go get that's got still potential upside? I mean, Anthony Richardson, but I don't think the Colts even want to trade Anthony Richardson right now because he's in a contract year.

• 1:11:39Bill Simmons?

  Has anyone traded for Anthony Richardson? Come on.

• 1:11:42Speaker 02

  Hey, if we get into the desperate mode here, we had, how many quarterbacks got hurt last week? Three guys, including one for the season. Like, these are the names you start to get to. The one that'll be really interesting will be Kirk Cousins. He's playing at a good level right now. He's on sort of a one-year contract, but it actually has a tail on it where the Raiders have an exclusive window next March to either cut him or trade him or potentially pick up his option. So they've got time to kind of play this thing out. But what the Raiders have to decide is, are you willing to trade him? If two and O becomes like three and one or four and two, now the schedule gets a lot harder from this point moving forward, but let's say they're still in it. And like Mark Davis is celebrating his week because he has a relevant football team for the first time in five years.

• 1:12:25Speaker 02

  Max Crosby is all fired up on the sideline like, do you really do it? Well, you've got Fernando Mendoza, and I don't anticipate, as long as they're in the playoff chase, that this isn't gonna be the Kurt Warner, Eli Manning awkward handoff where you're five and four. And it's like, we just, we need to put Eli in. They're gonna ride with Kirk as long as they're alive or until his play takes a dip. But if you get that opportunity and someone offers you, let's say, a third round pick for Kirk Cousins, I don't know if you can get that, but somebody gets hurt and he's available for not a whole lot of money? Like, that would make a, a ton of sense. So that'll be one that'll be dictated by, by circumstances, but I would absolutely not rule out the possibility of Kirk Cousins being traded during the season.

• 1:13:06Bill Simmons?

  That seems like the right name, but the Giants obviously don't think that they're a Super Bowl contender because that would be the guy you'd go after. It would be interesting if he got traded after signing the cheapest contract possible while he's also getting paid a ton of money from a third team. I don't know if we've seen that before.

• 1:13:21Speaker 02

  More teams paying guys, making minimum salaries somewhere because they're getting paid by somebody else. This has to be the, the NFL high that we've had.

• 1:13:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, maybe Tua could be in the trade too. Next one for the six pack. The, the Joey Porter Jr. seems like the best holdout free agent who might get traded, maybe. Pittsburgh certainly could have used him last week. I don't think Pittsburgh's season is necessarily going in a great place to begin with, but what, how does this end?

• 1:13:49Speaker 02

  Defensively, without their top corner, they're pretty good.

• 1:13:52Bill Simmons?

  Right. Front seven was excellent.

• 1:13:55Speaker 02

  Rodgers got the shit kicked out of him last week, but like in terms of the defense, like they're, they're legit, like they're going up against the Bengals this week. You know, they'd love to have Joey Porter Jr. out there against Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. He said he talked to the media for the first time today. It looked like he said kind of all the right things. They're not extending him like that. They negotiate up to week one. That's their policy. It's over. He can't come back and like, take that deal now. So really it's, he says he's gonna play at some point when he's ready, or else you trade him. Like, there is gonna be trade interest because there's, there's nobody out there. To your point, there's no other of these kind of hold in things. He does have a back issue. How big of a factor is it actually? We can certainly debate that, but he's the one guy and there's a bunch of teams that don't have corners.

• 1:14:38Speaker 02

  Like when, when Jerry Jones is walking through the bowels of the stadium the other night saying nothing more dangerous than an old man with money. I'm like, he's gonna try to trade for Joey Porter Jr. He's gonna try to add that extra piece to the defense. That to me is the most logical team if they're gonna trade.

• 1:14:52Bill Simmons?

  So what is it, a second?

• 1:14:54Speaker 02

  Second would be my, would be my best guess. If this were a different time, if this were in March, you know, Trent McDuffie went for the number 31 overall pick. It'd probably be in there. You're a little bit later now, it's probably a two. Remember, you also could, you know, he's in a contract year, but you could tag him. So you could justify to yourself, hey, even if we don't get a deal done with Porter now, we could always tag him and retain our rights or tag and trade him. So, you know, and for the Steelers, they could also, they could tag him or they could let him walk and get a comp pick. There's a lot of different things in terms of the value.

• 1:15:22Bill Simmons?

  Seems like there's bad blood there, though. That's like something, something shifted with it. I like the Cowboys' idea, though, because, you know, the scenario would be they lose in Brazil to Baltimore, right? And Jerry's been awfully quiet. It's been a running joke for everybody, but they lose. And then that Monday, it's like, we have now traded a conditional first round pick that could be a second for Joey Porter, and here's this giant contract he shouldn't get.

• 1:15:47Speaker 02

  Or, or could be, or could be you trade a, you do it after you win. It could be the, oh, man, we're so close.

• 1:15:54Bill Simmons?

  Oh, that is a, Jerry would like that one too.

• 1:15:57Speaker 02

  Analyzing if you're in the game. And then you just go, this is the time, we're gonna strike. I, I could see it, like, the bad blood thing is interesting because it, it seems like Joey Jr. is in a good place. Remember, Dad's also around. It's kind of an awkward situation, like one other team has a franchise legends kid who they're in a contract standoff with, and Joey is around the team, you know, he used to be on staff there. That, that dynamic is a little bit odd, but it seems like it's in a fine spot in terms of, you know, Joey Jr. continuing to work his way back onto the field. It's just at some point, if you're getting legit offers for him, I'd be really tempted to take it.

• 1:16:36Bill Simmons?

  Well, especially when the, his peers all got extensions and he didn't.

• 1:16:40Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:16:41Bill Simmons?

  So if you're Porter, you're like, okay, I guess I know how you guys feel. You don't think I'm on that same level where other people do. There you go. Two more in the six pack. Deshaun Watson, the house that I are about to talk about this in 2007. What if he's good again? What if he plays well this week? Against Carolina, who has a bad, bad defense in the game that everybody thought would just be a boo fest for three hours? What if last week, how he looked against Tampa was a sign of what's also gonna happen this week where he's kind of back? What happens then?

• 1:17:18Speaker 02

  Not too late for a five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed extension. It's such a unique situation because go back to, you know, 2022, all those teams were willing to do it. And now he's, he's four years, five years older, and he's had a bunch of injuries. Like, the guy that played last week looked like a real NFL quarterback, like he made some big time throws in the game. So from that perspective.

• 1:17:48Bill Simmons?

  I thought he dominated the second half. He was on it. He was whipping it around and the offense had real pace. I couldn't believe it watching it.

• 1:17:56Speaker 02

  And by the way, those rookie receivers they got, the Browns draft last year was really good. Those rookie receivers this year, you know, Casey Concepcion, even more so Denzel Boston looks like, you know, he's the guy that they've lacked to like actually take a top off the defense. I don't know what the market would be if Deshaun played this out. Now, he's got a wonky thing in his contract where essentially for cap purposes, he won't just be a free agent. They'll have to release him after the start of the league year in March. His contract, he won't be on the same contract, but they set it up to keep his cap hits out into 2027 and 28. So there's a little bit of a ripple effect, but like, who's bidding on Deshaun Watson? Knowing everything, you know, even if you're comfortable with the background you do on

• 1:18:39Speaker 02

  him, you still gotta be sitting around the room being like, are all the fans gonna hate this guy? Like, are they gonna give him a chance?

• 1:18:45Bill Simmons?

  I don't think it happens.

• 1:18:46Speaker 02

  But if he plays better, he's gonna be on the short list of dudes you can at least bring in as a bridge quarterback. I mean, I can't even rule out.

• 1:18:52Bill Simmons?

  Why wouldn't the Browns keep him at that point?

• 1:18:53Speaker 02

  That's the thing.

• 1:18:55Bill Simmons?

  Playing better, it's not like they don't have a, you know, it's not like they have better options.

• 1:18:59Speaker 02

  I, I can't even rule out that you keep him around. If he plays like he did last week, it's one game, the whole offense was terrible in week one, but you know, they, they flashed to the sideline after the game and you know, everybody's soaking wet because of the two-hour delay or whatever. And like, the first guy, they, they cut to Deshaun and he's hugging J.W. Johnson, Jimmy Haslam's son-in-law on the sideline, who's like very involved with the Browns organization. The relationship internally is better than I think everybody realizes. You just have to do the calculus on, can you heal the external relationship? And if the Browns don't bring him back, he's not just your average quarterback you're bringing in on like a one-year incentive-laden deal. Like, you're taking on all sorts of other stuff. It'll be absolutely unique.

• 1:19:43Speaker 02

  It is a one-of-one type of situation and his play will dictate where it goes from here.

• 1:19:49Bill Simmons?

  It's definitely the most fascinating week three plot, other than the 0-2 teams and like just if he's good again, as that's happening in real time. But he's going against Bryce Young, which is the last thing for our six pack. Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, linked together forever for variety of reasons. You would have Caleb would have been minus 1,000 heading into the season on who was going to have a better season, him or Bryce Young. And yet, Bryce Young was was good again. We'll see in Cleveland on the road this week, but just where does it stand with these two guys? Not just against each other, but how they're going to look the rest of the way?

• 1:20:25Speaker 02

  With Caleb, you know, despite what it looked like on the field, he's going to be back soon. He didn't practice today. It's unlikely that he plays Monday night. I know some people took my initial tweet the wrong way. I said he's not, they're not ruling him out, meaning it's not a 0% chance.

• 1:20:42Bill Simmons?

  You broke the story, we should mention.

• 1:20:43Speaker 02

  I did break the story that it was, it showed no, you know, no major injury. And so they're not even ruling him out this week, meaning if he's feeling good enough by Monday, they'll put him out there. Now, if they get to the end of the week and the hamstring's still an issue, obviously they'll hold him back. But this is not a long-term injury for Caleb. And so-

• 1:21:00Bill Simmons?

  Well, wait a second. If all the shit he took on social media this week, which he had to have seen because he's under 30 years old. So there's no way he's on social media.

• 1:21:08Speaker 02

  Sure.

• 1:21:09Bill Simmons?

  Or not on it. Would that make him want to come back to be like, I'll show you guys, I am tough. And, and then he's back on Monday night. It's a, because they could beat Philly if he's even 60%.

• 1:21:21Speaker 02

  Milk it for three weeks to make it clear that it wasn't more major injury?

• 1:21:24Bill Simmons?

  Well, you could go that way, too. Yeah, it could be like, yeah, I actually was hurt. Look, I'm not playing again.

• 1:21:29Speaker 02

  It comes down to, for the Bears, it'll come down to like, how functional can he be? Can he protect himself? Like, there's things you can do schematically just to like, yeah, he's not going to scramble out of the pocket and make the crazy throws. Like, you may have to play in rhythm. If they don't feel like he can do that this week, they're not going to put him on to the field. But I expect him to be back in the next couple of weeks here. On Monday night, if he doesn't go, then it's either Tyson Bajent or Case Keenum going up against the Eagles, coming off a performance where from the highs of 59 points to the lows of playing in that terrible weather against the Vikings and scoring six points and fumbling on the goal line and all that.

• 1:22:02Bill Simmons?

  You weren't there, were you?

• 1:22:03Speaker 02

  I wasn't at that game, no. But it looked horrible.

• 1:22:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I did not factor in with the bet. The under seemed like the craziest, easiest bet ever. It didn't, just didn't seem like anybody could throw the ball. So then, even when we did it, we talked about the game on Sunday night, me and Sal, but I always had that game on a smaller TV, so I wasn't hearing the announcers. And I wasn't really fully aware of like, how bad the weather was and how much it affected it. So we'll see. Like, because the Bears, to me, you know, they're going to have Case Keenum this week, probably. But they have all these weapons, like Loveland's done nothing. They have this really good run game. They got, like, I'll be interested to see if their offense is still pretty good, even without Caleb, even for a week.

• 1:22:47Speaker 02

  Well, and the whole, you know, Ben Johnson first start without a number one pick at quarterback thing. It's so overblown because it's not-

• 1:22:54Bill Simmons?

  That's ridiculous.

• 1:22:54Speaker 02

  It's not like anyone was like, wow, Ben got Jared Goff. He's going to be great. It's like, no, no one thought Jared Goff was great when they-

• 1:23:01Bill Simmons?

  They had to pay a first rounder to get rid of him.

• 1:23:03Speaker 02

  They had to. It was literally the throw in. It was a salary dump that required a first round pick to take him in the Stafford trade. And then Caleb wasn't, you know, didn't play great his first year. There was a lot of stuff going on. Like, Ben has healed those guys. Like, I don't know how much you're, you're changing Case Keenum with all the football under his belt, but like, they'll have a plan. They'll be ready to go. It's a good matchup with Ben going up against Vic Fangio. With regard to Bryce, one of the things that I think is really interesting is if you, if you really watch it, and I went back through the Panthers' first couple of games here, they're getting to the line of scrimmage really early and snapping the ball pretty early. And I don't see like, a ton of Bryce making checks and stuff, which tells me, they know how good of a processor

• 1:23:45Speaker 02

  he is. And they also know he's not a big quarterback who like, once the ball is snapped, is not going to have a great sight. So you're basically putting in positions where you're making the call and just going, this call is going to be good enough against a lot of different stuff. Like, use your processing ability, walking to the line and getting there while everybody is still down. All right, now get the snap off. And it's worked. Like, they've really stressed the tempo and operate quickly. And they've put a bunch of, they put a basketball team around him. You know, it's a bunch of like, physical athletes, T-Mac and, and Liggett, Coker. I know Coker and Liggett did not practice today, which isn't a great sign. We'll see where that goes. Coker is, I mean, the guy was in a walking boot last Monday and played in the game. So it may be a maintenance thing.

• 1:24:27Bill Simmons?

  Holy Cross. Holy Cross people are very tough.

• 1:24:29Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:24:29Bill Simmons?

  You know, since Coker came back last year, Bryce has been a different guy from, you know, he didn't have him for, I forget how many games it was, but it was at least nine to 10. But once Coker got going again, that kind of unleashed him. Because McMillan, you know, he's not like on the Jamar Chase level, but he's a difference maker. And I don't know. When I watch him, I just feel like guys are open and he's getting the ball to the right spot. But you're right, they play with, they play with a little oomph. And I'll be interested to see if they can do that in Cleveland, because I don't think that's a great spot for them.

• 1:24:59Speaker 02

  Yeah. I mean, they still, they still use a ton of motion and stuff. It's not like they've like, just totally dumbed down the offense or something. But they clearly are making the emphasis of like, we got an elite processor, let's put him in positions where he can actually do what he's best at. You know, the, the contract negotiations didn't really go anywhere in the offseason with the Panthers and Bryce. It was kind of like, all right, the market, we're all anticipating because of Caleb, because of Jaden Daniels' pending health, you know, those guys are going to get huge deals. So why would we take a deal at the, where the market is now, from Bryce's perspective? And the Panthers probably wanted, you know, a little more information. Okay, the arrow's pointing up. But like, we got in the playoffs last year, we were still eight and nine, you know, it wasn't perfect. Well, if Bryce does this all year, it's going to be, you're going to

• 1:25:41Speaker 02

  be under a ton of pressure not to pay him whatever he wants. It's like a, you know, bet on yourself type of a situation. They weren't going to be in the neighborhood of what Bryce would have wanted. It could end up working out. But Cleveland's defense will be harder. Like, that first game against Jacksonville, they were super passive and just like, sitting back in zones. Last week looked a lot more like what we expect the Browns to be. And I bet that they just, you know, pressure the crap out of Bryce this week.

• 1:26:06Bill Simmons?

  One of the many differences between NFL and NBA is like, if this was NBA and Bryce was a free agent after the year, this would just be a pretty massive story, right? Like, if he could just jump. But in the NFL, you can just, if he's really good, they'll just franchise tag him for a year and figure it out. And I don't think we'll ever see the movement like that. I, do you like the franchise tag or no?

• 1:26:30Speaker 02

  I mean, it's, I don't think I'd say I like it or don't, but it's just a necessary evil. You know, it prevents certain things. I mean, the players would argue it shouldn't exist, but it's existed for over 30 years now. But team control is, is a big thing. It's not quite like baseball, but it does give you, I mean, you got first round picks for seven years. It's not five. It's four years plus the option and two tags before the third tag is so astronomical because of how it's calculated, that you probably can't keep the guy. I mean, you can keep, if you draft a 22-year-old quarterback, you can keep him until he's damn near 30.

• 1:27:02Bill Simmons?

  Can you imagine in the NBA, like, if, if Detroit could do this with Jalen Duran? Like, yeah, we couldn't agree. We're just going to franchise tag you. You're going to make the average salary of the top five centers or whatever it is.

• 1:27:13Speaker 02

  And the NBA also-

• 1:27:14Bill Simmons?

  The NBA would, all those players would fucking hate that. They would go crazy.

• 1:27:18Speaker 02

  The flip side of it, though, is that in the NBA, you've got like, the max and the super max deals where it's like, you can go up to a certain threshold. And you also have like, the mid-level exception stuff. None of that exists in the NFL, even like the veteran salary benefit deals. Every dollar you spend hits the cap eventually in the NFL. There's ways to like, move it around and push the pain into the future. But like, every dollar you spend hits. And so if you're a, a top quarterback, you wouldn't probably like to see like, all right, the maximum you can get is five years for 250 million. And everybody from Patrick Mahomes to Baker Mayfield to Bryce Young is going to be making the exact same amount of money. Like, you would have right now, two of making the same amount of money as Patrick Mahomes. And we'd all be sitting there going, and they're not

• 1:28:01Speaker 02

  that far apart, by the way. They're like, $8 million apart. But you'd be going like, this seems wrong. At least that part of the economics hasn't changed yet. But who knows, man? There's a lot with the TV deals and the opt-out coming up in 2029 and the CBA up in 2031. The talks, which haven't started yet between the union and the league, there's going to be really interesting things about cap percentage and potentially changing some of the things economically about how it works. I don't think any of those things are high priorities for players. But the NFL, definitely the owners want to change some things economically here. And we'll see how long it takes them to sort of work through all the ancillary issues that lead up to the big thing, the one thing that ultimately matters, which is money.

• 1:28:43Bill Simmons?

  It almost feels like they need two different salary structures for quarterbacks and for teams. Right? Because the, the top half of quarterbacks in the league are all basically NBA max players. And you kind of have to think of them that way. And they're just operating in a different stratosphere than any other position. It's not even close.

• 1:29:02Speaker 02

  Those things have been proposed and bandied about, different things about quarterbacks kind of being set aside. You know, there's been a bunch of different ideas that have been floated. But again, if you're the union-

• 1:29:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, why are you agreeing to that?

• 1:29:16Speaker 02

  You represent all players. So like, the rank and file would be like, yeah, limit the quarterback money. But the quarterbacks, the guys who have the power and the money, don't want that. And the union's never going to, you know, want to limit wages. I mean, that's just kind of the nature of it. But again, like, there's, there have been agents that have proposed cap percentage deals for quarterbacks. Because if you look at, you know, even a deal done four years ago, when the cap was like, $100 million less.

• 1:29:40Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:29:40Speaker 02

  Now it's like, okay, that guy ranks eighth. But at the time, like, in terms of cap percentage, he ranks way lower. We got to redo this deal. And that's where you see things like Josh Allen's deal getting ripped up, and then adding a couple of years and giving him a huge raise. It's just, all you're doing is bringing it back up to the top of the market. That's really changed in the last 10, five to 10 years, which is, when guys have undervalued contracts, the agents don't wait. You could have two, three, four years left, and you're coming to them going, hey, we need to, to bump this up. Different teams have different policies.

• 1:30:12Bill Simmons?

  You can push the money years ahead, which you can't do in the NBA. The NBA, it's like, we've decided this, and this is your contract until it's finished. And that's how it's going to go.

• 1:30:21Speaker 02

  You can, you can reroute cap for a long time, which is why the Browns have paid all but like, $800,000 of the 230 million in cash to Deshaun. And they still have, I don't even, I don't even actually know the precise number because they have an insurance policy. But it's still like, $80 million in cap that they got to eat over 2027 and 2028, when he's probably not even on the team.

• 1:30:44Bill Simmons?

  Tom Pellicero, you can hear him on Ringer NFL Show tomorrow. And then, The Sweep. Please sign up for this newsletter. It's really good. It comes out Saturday morning. It's good to see you as always.

• 1:30:54Speaker 02

  You too, Bill. Thanks.

• 1:30:55Bill Simmons?

  Thanks. Remember, today's Ringer 107 is brought to you by FanDuel. Make this your most rewarding season ever. Download the FanDuel app to check out all of our Ringer 107 picks and boosted teasers. Boosted minus 110 juice. Go get them every single week this season. All right, week three picks, we are both five and five in Ringer 107. As usual, I'm complaining about some bad luck with some of those picks, including Lassiter dropping the Josh Allen interception. That one hurt my feelings.

• 1:31:26Speaker 01

  Week one, yeah.

• 1:31:28Bill Simmons?

  Baker Mayfield driving down to cover my tease against the Browns.

• 1:31:32Speaker 01

  Sorry about that. Sorry.

• 1:31:33Bill Simmons?

  Stop by Lightning, game disappears for almost three hours, comes back, can't get it done. There's some, the week three trends, last year, the big trend, last week, the big trends were all four teams that lost by 20 plus points in week one, everyone's like, take those teams in week two. They all won and covered in week two, Cleveland, Carolina, Denver, and the Rams.

• 1:31:56Speaker 01

  Yes, very good.

• 1:31:58Bill Simmons?

  This week, the week three trends, probably there's the most stuff that we have either going back to 2000 or 2010. For instance, teams that start 0-2 against the, against the spread are 42, 19 and 1 against the spread in week three against 1-1 teams since 2010. So if you had 0-2 team against 1-1 team, almost a 70% chance that 0-2 team's gonna cover against spread. We have two candidates this week, Tennessee plus 2.5 in Atlanta tonight.

• 1:32:28Speaker 01

  Wait, no, no, no, the Falcons are playing, wait a minute.

• 1:32:33Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I had that right.

• 1:32:33Speaker 01

  Tonight?

• 1:32:34Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm saying two teams, Tennessee plus 2.5, and then the Falcons tonight start at 0-2 against spread.

• 1:32:40Speaker 01

  Sorry.

• 1:32:41Bill Simmons?

  And then week three underdogs, 0-2 teams that are underdogs are 30 and 12 against the spread, which is almost 72%. That includes the Chargers, Atlanta tonight, Tampa, and Miami. And then last but not least, this is a weird one. I never know what to make of these, but NFL teams that are 1-1 against the spread in week three are 14 and 24 if they are underdogs of plus 3.5 or higher. That would be Pittsburgh, Jets, and Arizona.

• 1:33:09Speaker 01

  And, well, Washington definitely fits that as well. Washington covered in week one, and now they're 7.5 point dogs to Seattle.

• 1:33:18Bill Simmons?

  So we'll add them as well.

• 1:33:22Bill Simmons?

  My favorite week three trend is, has nothing to do with the spread records, but just the 0-2 desperate team.

• 1:33:27Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:33:29Bill Simmons?

  I take it seriously. I, I think sports goes like this, and at some point, when you're way, way down, you know, so I'm looking at the Chargers, which that line has moved all the way to plus 7.5 on Buffalo. I'm not gonna take the Chargers, but I'm also a little scared of the Bills because of the Chargers. But what's your favorite week three trend? What do you like the most? Just in general?

• 1:33:52Speaker 01

  Oh, the 0-2 teams, you know, look at the inflated spread that comes along with that. The, the first one that you read is right.

• 1:34:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, okay. You seem enthused.

• 1:34:07Speaker 01

  I'm not playing it in, into any of those trends with my picks this week, so that's why I'm hesitating.

• 1:34:14Bill Simmons?

  I think, do you go first this week or do I? Cause we each do three Ringer 107 picks and a tease.

• 1:34:19Speaker 01

  You were generous. You let me go first in week one, then you went first last week, and I immediately-

• 1:34:23Bill Simmons?

  All right, what's your favorite game?

• 1:34:24Speaker 01

  I immediately piggybacked you. I absolutely love the Baltimore Ravens laying-

• 1:34:30Bill Simmons?

  In Brazil, you're going with the hockey rink field. Oh my God.

• 1:34:34Speaker 01

  Well, yes, and that is part of the handicap for me, because if the field sucks, then that definitely favors the offense over the defense. And so, the Ravens have the best offense in the NFL by a whole slew of measures.

• 1:34:52Bill Simmons?

  They're missing two receivers.

• 1:34:54Speaker 01

  But especially, Zay is, is still a possibility out there. They haven't completely eliminated him.

• 1:35:00Bill Simmons?

  It's always a good idea to have a guy with an injured hamstring on a hockey rink field in Brazil.

• 1:35:04Speaker 01

  That's not-

• 1:35:04Bill Simmons?

  Let's bring him out.

• 1:35:05Speaker 01

  That's not the basis for the play, though. They are especially dominant on the, with the run. And, yeah, I think that, you know, they, they're number one in the NFL run block win rate. They're number one in the NFL in, in success, like our per EPA per rush. Like, oh, you know, slice and dice it, however you want. I think that they are going to go out and get up with some kind of margin, and then Dallas won't be able to close it because the Ravens can run the ball the entirety of the second half. They can do what they didn't do against the Saints when they were-

• 1:35:40Bill Simmons?

  When Derrick Henry had five, five runs in the second half?

• 1:35:43Speaker 01

  Yes, yes. I felt like I was watching John Harbaugh all over again. Yeah, so I, I really love the Ravens getting up. Madabuke is back. That's huge for the inside of, of their defense. Dallas can't establish the run anyhow. Dallas is one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL.

• 1:36:01Bill Simmons?

  I'm, I'm really regretting some of our Cowboys future stuff, or at least some of the stuff I had, because it, it looks like their defense, they shifted some deck chairs in the Titanic, but I don't really feel like it's any different.

• 1:36:13Speaker 01

  And, and Washington was moving the ball just fine. They were all the way down to the one yard line with, you know-

• 1:36:18Bill Simmons?

  I was gonna bet you at halftime.

• 1:36:21Speaker 01

  Yeah, right. It would, and then everything went to shit all at once. I just, I just think that this Ravens offense in a get right kind of, of moment here, I have no problem with the idea of them winning by margin. So I have the Ravens laying the 3.5.

• 1:36:38Bill Simmons?

  So I looked at it long and hard, and it came down to,

• 1:36:43Bill Simmons?

  I just don't wanna bet games in weird locations. I remember that Eagles Packers game on like a Friday night in Rio, wherever the fuck that, Mexico, I don't even remember where it was, and guys were falling down and the vibe was weird. I'm just like, I'm out. Like, I, I don't think there's any way to know what's gonna happen in these games, but if I did do it, I would, I would have the Ravens. I think it's the right side. My first one,

• 1:37:06Bill Simmons?

  I'm doing something I rarely do in Ringer 107, and just for the record, I picked the team I'm about to go against in week one and week two for Ringer 107.

• 1:37:15Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 1:37:16Bill Simmons?

  It's the New England Patriots.

• 1:37:18Speaker 01

  Wow. This is great.

• 1:37:22Bill Simmons?

  They are plus 2.5 in Jacksonville. I think that line will move. I think that's gonna move up. I think that would be 3 or 3.5 by Sunday.

• 1:37:34Bill Simmons?

  In Florida, humid. I don't like that.

• 1:37:38Bill Simmons?

  Jags in Florida have been good, especially recently. Something like, they're like 8-1 or 9-0 in their last nine home games. Pats are banged up now. AJ's gone probably till November. I'm just, I assume we're not gonna see him till around Halloween. They lost Nwenu, who was, by all accounts, probably their most reliable offensive lineman, an alignment, an align that was pretty mediocre. They ended last week's game with a bunch of defensive back injuries that are all up in the air before we taped this, but it didn't matter because they're playing Aaron Rodgers.

• 1:38:12Bill Simmons?

  And Drake May is a mess. He's a mess. And I said this Sunday night, and I don't, I don't feel like it's an overreaction. Like, I, I think he's going through something, and they're gonna have to outscore the Jaguars. As good as the Pats D were in those first two games, they played Drew Lock and they played Aaron Rodgers. And this is now a real quarterback and a real offense coming off a loss. I don't know what happened to them in the second half in Denver, but I think that Jags offense is really good. And I think it's gonna, you're gonna need 27 to 30 points, I think, in this game to win. And I don't think the Pats, without AJ Brown, with the way Drake May's playing, with some of the run block stuff, and just the offensive line stuff in general,

• 1:38:55Bill Simmons?

  and the McDaniels, whatever the offense are running, which doesn't seem right, I couldn't believe this line stayed at 2.5. I think it should be 3.5 or 4. So I'm, I wanna win Ringer 107. I hope I'm wrong. Jags minus 2.5 is my first pick.

• 1:39:12Speaker 01

  I, you started this off by saying I'm playing the Patriots, and I was like, oh my God, you and I are gonna be head to head for the first time in the Ringer 107 this season.

• 1:39:22Bill Simmons?

  You're taking the Jags too?

• 1:39:23Speaker 01

  I am all over the Jags. You just made the case. You should see my, the, here are the notes. Injuries are all over the place for the Patriots. The Jaguars-

• 1:39:32Bill Simmons?

  It's a bad spot.

• 1:39:33Speaker 01

  8-1 against the spread at, at home. The, the Jags have been good coming off of a loss as well. Liam Cohen, these weapons, we, we haven't really seen them exploit the middle of the field yet. We haven't seen Brenton Strange or Jacoby Myers really get unleashed. Well, that's where the softness to this Patriots defense is, is going to be exposed, and there's no reason, go ahead and take away Parker Washington. It's fine for the Jags and Cohen at home.

• 1:39:59Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they have all these different spots.

• 1:40:00Speaker 01

  Whatever the thing is we call it, piggyback, no, no, so I have two, that's my second pick. It's, it's actually, I've circled it number one, because the Ravens are here, and then I had the, I was saving that Patriots-Jags.

• 1:40:13Bill Simmons?

  There's a way the Pats can win.

• 1:40:15Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:40:15Bill Simmons?

  And I, I think it would take at least 27 to 30, but I think it's at least, they, it's gonna have to be explosive plays. It's gonna have to be like a kick, a kick touchdown, a punt touchdown, some sort of return. It's gonna have to be a Henderson 60-yard bust. It's gonna have to be a Drake May scramble for 45. Like, they're gonna need like, I think at least three explosive plays.

• 1:40:36Speaker 01

  You're right. He has to stop turning the ball over. I mean, that's it. Jacksonville for sure is capable of creating turnovers.

• 1:40:43Bill Simmons?

  Or Lasky did a footwork thing that I saw on, on social this week, where he was just talking about his feet moving as he's going back and like little happy feet thing. It just, he wasn't doing that last year. I don't know what's going on with him.

• 1:40:56Speaker 01

  Well, I do. They, since the playoffs started, the, the Patriots have played a whole slew of good defenses.

• 1:41:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I think they got-

• 1:41:04Speaker 01

  All the way up till now.

• 1:41:05Bill Simmons?

  They can rattle them a little bit.

• 1:41:06Speaker 01

  For sure. It's a different kind of football altogether.

• 1:41:11Bill Simmons?

  I don't think this is a must-win for the Pats. I think they could be 1-2 and they're fine. This is a game you were probably gonna circle as a potential loss for them anyway, and I don't think they're gonna have the team that they need until November.

• 1:41:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, that makes, they have Buffalo next week, so you don't really wanna be 1-3.

• 1:41:27Bill Simmons?

  They just need to tread water and be 4-4, you know, 4-5, 5-4, somewhere in there, heading into November, December, because I think they can still make a run.

• 1:41:35Speaker 01

  Jacksonville has to have this game. Their next three-

• 1:41:37Bill Simmons?

  They have to have this game.

• 1:41:38Speaker 01

  The Bengals, the Eagles, and the Texans. And that, that's a tough, that's a tough road right there.

• 1:41:44Bill Simmons?

  I'd be really surprised.

• 1:41:45Speaker 01

  The Jags.

• 1:41:46Bill Simmons?

  I'd be really surprised if the Pats won this game. So, there you go. Okay, so I guess I'm up again.

• 1:41:52Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:41:56Bill Simmons?

  This is like partly, it's almost like a comedy pick.

• 1:42:02Bill Simmons?

  I'm taking the Bucks again.

• 1:42:07Bill Simmons?

  They beat me two weeks in a row. I have a bunch of futures with them. I'm betting on the following things. They're 0-11 against the spread in the last 11 games.

• 1:42:17Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:42:17Bill Simmons?

  Todd Bowles will probably get fired after this game if they lose.

• 1:42:21Speaker 01

  Agreed.

• 1:42:21Bill Simmons?

  Baker Mayfield almost seems like he's drunk in these games. I know he's not drunk, but that some of his decision making and the carelessness with the ball is just unbelievable. Like he's playing, he's gonna play himself out of the league. So if there's no lightning in that game last week, they're 1-1. I think they, they beat the Browns and I think they're favored by one and a half. I think the fact that that lightning happened swung this game by three points. Hot in Florida in September, right? I still feel, we say that all the time, Florida and Carolina, this matters in the, in September when it's humid and weird. And Kyler Murray's coming back, which makes me like them more.

• 1:42:58Speaker 01

  I agree with this.

• 1:43:00Bill Simmons?

  I, they're like trying to figure out how to even use him in. I'm not impressed by the, the Vikings scored nine points last week.

• 1:43:06Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:43:06Bill Simmons?

  I don't think they can run the ball at all. And, and like, if the Bucks can't win this game, they're gonna go like 4-13. This is, out of all the teams that are playing, and I would even include the Texans, this is the biggest game of the season for a team so far. Like this is like, you lose this game, you might as well blow it up, start either trading pieces or trading four pieces. And I think the plus one and a half, I just, they have to win this game.

• 1:43:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, I agree with, with what you're laying out here. And in fact, I had them as a teaser leg. So I'm teasing them from one and a half up through the seven.

• 1:43:40Bill Simmons?

  To the seven and a half.

• 1:43:41Speaker 01

  Seven and a half, which I, I just need some, some wiggle room with this version of Baker. There is definitely a case to be made for Tampa to be 2-0 as opposed to the 0-2 that they are. They didn't, they didn't punt against the Cincinnati Bengals.

• 1:43:55Bill Simmons?

  Right. Four fumbles.

• 1:43:57Speaker 01

  They just gave them the ball a whole bunch of times.

• 1:43:59Bill Simmons?

  Also, they were in control of that Cleveland game. It was 16-9.

• 1:44:02Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:44:03Bill Simmons?

  And all of a sudden that Denzel, well, that Denzel Boston play happened.

• 1:44:07Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:44:07Bill Simmons?

  I'm watching going, god damn it, Cleveland's hanging around, they're hanging around. Denzel Boston, five guys are there. He somehow busts through all of them, scores 16-16, and now you gotta sweat it out, but.

• 1:44:20Bill Simmons?

  Here's the other thing, from a Ponzi scheme standpoint, how many games in a row can you lose against the spread? What are they gonna go, 0-20? Like at some point, I might just pick them every week and wringer 107 until they cover.

• 1:44:33Speaker 01

  They are right now tied.

• 1:44:34Bill Simmons?

  15 against the spread?

• 1:44:36Speaker 01

  They're tied right now for the all-time against the spread worst, worst streak. So if they lose to the, to the spread again, they will be the single title holder. They're tied. I, I heard this on the Action Network, Evan Abrams, shout out Evan Abrams. Uh, they're tied with the Houston Oilers.

• 1:44:52Bill Simmons?

  Well, the, the, which Houston Oilers team?

• 1:44:55Speaker 01

  I think in the seventies.

• 1:44:58Bill Simmons?

  So the counter to this is, the strategy I'm using here is the blackjack strategy of the dealer is killing me. I'm gonna double my bets because my luck's about to change. I don't know if that's gonna happen here, but I, man, if you can't beat Kyler Murray in the fucking Tampa heat and an offense that can't run the ball and.

• 1:45:19Bill Simmons?

  Let's put it this way, Bowles gets fired if they lose this game, and maybe that's how this plays out. And I'll just bet, I'll take them again next week, but I'm taking them Bucks plus one and a half, home dog. A lot of favorable stats with home dogs, 0-2 and all that shit.

• 1:45:34Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:45:35Bill Simmons?

  What do you, so what's your other leg of your tease?

• 1:45:36Speaker 01

  The other leg of my tease is the Tennessee Titans from two and a half up to eight and a half. New York Giants favored at home with Jameis Winston starting at quarterback. I'm not going to sit here and make a compelling case for the Titans. I'm not going into the X's and O's to explain to you why I think that, that the Titans are gonna compete, be competitive in this game. I'm just gonna say, I don't have the Giants winning by more than a touchdown against anybody for the rest of this entire season. Maybe the Dolphins? I don't know. I don't even know if they're on the schedule, but this version of, of the Giants.

• 1:46:17Speaker 01

  With Jameis at quarterback, I'm just not, you know, that, that feels like a good teaser leg to me.

• 1:46:22Bill Simmons?

  So you're taking them up to eight and a half?

• 1:46:24Speaker 01

  Yes. Tampa up to seven and a half, Titans up to eight and a half.

• 1:46:30Bill Simmons?

  I haven't had a chance to talk about the dart injury on this podcast yet.

• 1:46:36Bill Simmons?

  Jameis, I think that was the worst I've ever seen a quarterback play in a game that I can remember.

• 1:46:43Speaker 01

  No, no, no.

• 1:46:43Bill Simmons?

  I'm sure there's been worse.

• 1:46:44Speaker 01

  You watched Cooper Rush. Did you see any of Cooper Rush the two previous weeks?

• 1:46:47Bill Simmons?

  I saw Cooper Rush. I feel like Jameis was worse.

• 1:46:53Bill Simmons?

  I couldn't, I honestly was stunned. It was like, it had, he had no idea he was actually gonna play in an NFL game this season. He seemed completely unprepared.

• 1:47:00Speaker 01

  He was not planning on playing.

• 1:47:02Bill Simmons?

  And he, he, the throws weren't near anybody. Like, I've never seen anything like that. The dart thing was such a bummer. The Giants fans were so upset. I was so psyched for that game too, and I think everybody was. And then.

• 1:47:14Speaker 01

  This moron took the, the Giants plus seven and a half in wringer 107.

• 1:47:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I don't, I don't know what happens.

• 1:47:21Speaker 01

  Stick around. I thought they were gonna be within a touchdown.

• 1:47:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:47:25Speaker 01

  That's why I went three and two last week. There were so many easy games I could have picked.

• 1:47:29Bill Simmons?

  So I, I'm obviously staying away from the Titans for all intents and purposes. I was thinking how they got Sala and they got Dayball. And it was like, and even I, like, I test drove it a couple of times in my head, like, oh, Sala's great on the defense, now they get Dayball on the offense. But they basically did the equivalent of those, those movies you'll see on like Amazon. When it's like Nick Cage and John Travolta are in a movie again.

• 1:48:00Bill Simmons?

  You know, like the, these actors that just are not in successful projects anymore and they're throwing it together. And you're like, oh, it's a movie. This was the equivalent of that. Or it's like these two actors, oh, Ben Kingsley's in this too. And it's just, it's, it's, oh, and that's Aaron Eckhart. And it's just not gonna happen. And I think that's same with this. You take two name coaches that have really not been successful. And you put them together and guess what? They're not successful. And I, the Cam Ward, I haven't seen any identifiable tape with him this year that says that he's gonna be a productive QB.

• 1:48:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, I don't have a counterpoint. I just thought they looked lively against the Eagles. Especially they were able to put some pressure up front. They got some pressure on Hertz. And they can kinda run the ball a little bit, the Titans. And, and you know, that, that Giants defense, Burns is supposed to be out, I think, just, you know, I'm just, the idea of.

• 1:48:55Bill Simmons?

  Well, their secondary is the worst, probably, uh, it's in the running for worst.

• 1:49:01Bill Simmons?

  Okay, so that's your tease. I'll do my tease then.

• 1:49:05Bill Simmons?

  And I, I really, I changed this a hundred times.

• 1:49:10Bill Simmons?

  The only thing I knew was that Seahawks, Washington was gonna be one of my legs.

• 1:49:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:49:15Bill Simmons?

  Six-point tease. On Fanduel, we have a deal every week. $50 bet, you get minus 110 juice. We've done okay on the teases. I, I almost went two now, except for the Baker thing, but I just feel like Seahawks, it's a free leg. Tease the Seahawks down to one and a half. I think they go on a bender this year. I, I'm a full believer. All the stuff I laid out, it might've been one of the few things I was right about before the season, but the nobody believes in us with them. I, I think they have a little edge to them. They're not even completely healthy yet. I don't really see a difference with Locke and Darnold from how it's affected them. They seem fine with Locke. I thought he was good last week.

• 1:49:55Bill Simmons?

  And then your team, Mariota, last 13 starts, which were basically in 22 and 25, he's 3-10.

• 1:50:05Bill Simmons?

  And him against that Seattle defense.

• 1:50:13Bill Simmons?

  You could talk me into some alternate, like Seattle might in this 19 and a half, like some of those bets too, some blowout bets, but. This just, I, I can't imagine Mariota's gonna beat the Seahawks.

• 1:50:26Bill Simmons?

  So I'm putting him in a tease.

• 1:50:28Speaker 01

  Washington fits a bunch of those trends in terms of 0-2 teams. Now, Washington is 1-1 against the spread, so they're not, you know, the, the red lights flashing and, and the sirens blaring in terms of that, that trend angle. But they are supposed to, to cover this according to what history has told us, but you can't go against Seattle. They're 10-1 against the spread on the road.

• 1:50:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:50:53Speaker 01

  With, under Mike McDonald. They have nine straight, straight up wins in the Eastern time zone, the Seattle. They are so well-prepared, so well-coached. And the issue is the Seattle defense against Mariota. That's one significant formative issue. The other issue is the Washington defense against JSN. And that's the only weapon that Seattle needs.

• 1:51:20Bill Simmons?

  Yes.

• 1:51:21Speaker 01

  It's a single weapon. You can't take them away. We watched, you know, Seattle twice. Their opponents try and take JS in the way. He's untakeawayable. So this Washington defense is gonna do it? I don't think so.

• 1:51:36Bill Simmons?

  They're just too good. They're not gonna lose games like this early in the season.

• 1:51:40Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:51:40Bill Simmons?

  And I thought, what, what I saw from Washington, plus you lost Cosme.

• 1:51:46Speaker 01

  Brutal.

• 1:51:47Bill Simmons?

  But from what I saw from Washington, like there was a little something with Daniels, but it was all built around all the skills Daniels have. And I just don't think Mariota has the same skills.

• 1:51:55Speaker 01

  He does not. You are correct.

• 1:51:57Bill Simmons?

  So I'm putting the Seahawks down to minus one and a half.

• 1:52:01Bill Simmons?

  And man, I test drove a bunch of different ones for the other leg. Including, I was looking at the Broncos plus eight and a half in that Rams game. Seemed enticing.

• 1:52:12Bill Simmons?

  I looked at the Saints, the Raiders, the Raiders going all the way up to plus nine. That caught my interest.

• 1:52:21Bill Simmons?

  I'm going with an under for the first time.

• 1:52:24Speaker 01

  Oh, okay. You're doing a total.

• 1:52:27Bill Simmons?

  I'm doing a total.

• 1:52:28Speaker 01

  Good for you.

• 1:52:29Bill Simmons?

  Bengals Steelers under 48 and a half.

• 1:52:31Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:52:33Bill Simmons?

  I was trying to think in my head how this game got to 49 points and what would need to happen. And it's basically defensive touchdowns and special team stuff.

• 1:52:41Speaker 01

  Agreed.

• 1:52:42Bill Simmons?

  The Steelers offense, they had 23 points in the first two games. Their quarterback's a fossil. They can't run the ball at all. They have no run game whatsoever. Did you see the, the, the video of Lawrence just punking the Houston offensive line for like four minutes?

• 1:53:00Speaker 01

  No, I didn't see it.

• 1:53:01Bill Simmons?

  They mic'd them up. He's talking shit to them for four solid minutes about how he's whipping their ass. They're scared of him. I'm coming again. It is unbelievable. I thought they have a real identity with their front seven. I'm not sure about their secondary yet.

• 1:53:17Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:53:18Bill Simmons?

  They're, listen, I, I was down on them before the season, but they can block better than I thought. And their front seven's better than I thought.

• 1:53:24Speaker 01

  It's legit.

• 1:53:26Bill Simmons?

  And they'll do at least as well as the Patriots did last week. So yeah, that. And then on the other side, the Steelers defense was really good against the Pats. I was really, I thought they did a bunch of good stuff and the way Houston was hitting Borough last week. They weren't really moving the ball. They basically got a couple of long plays and they have really good receivers, but.

• 1:53:45Speaker 01

  They only gave up 13 points on offense. I mean, on, on defense to the Patriots offense.

• 1:53:50Bill Simmons?

  So 49 points is either that's 30, 20 beats me, 27, 23 beats me, 35.

• 1:53:59Speaker 01

  No, I like this.

• 1:54:00Bill Simmons?

  14 beats me. I don't, I don't see it. I don't see how they get there.

• 1:54:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, I, I bet the under in this game just on the number. Like I, it's an appropriate under game. And it just boils down to the complete ineptitude. I can't believe you, you. I'm glad that there isn't a camera in my living room capturing what I say to DK Metcalf. Because I have DK Metcalf on my fantasy team.

• 1:54:25Bill Simmons?

  He was awful.

• 1:54:26Speaker 01

  I want him to go to Antarctica and find that city under Antarctica.

• 1:54:30Bill Simmons?

  Oh, is he, is he gonna be the guest on Eat a Fat Dick?

• 1:54:32Speaker 01

  Oh, he, no, no. I want something worse for him than that.

• 1:54:37Bill Simmons?

  He's not even allowed on the podcast?

• 1:54:39Speaker 01

  The, the, the bravado matched with the ineptitude is just, I, that, that's what I have the least amount of patience for.

• 1:54:46Bill Simmons?

  He's like the Seattle Mariners, the receivers.

• 1:54:48Speaker 01

  And, and you know, Aaron, my best friend on the team is DK Metcalf. Well, that certainly makes a lot of sense.

• 1:54:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:54:54Speaker 01

  Two pieces of, you know, two guys not capable of advancing the football down the field.

• 1:54:59Bill Simmons?

  Pittsburgh's offense 31st in EPA through two games. Cincinnati was 21st. Pittsburgh's defense was second in EPA since he's fourth.

• 1:55:07Speaker 01

  It's a great underplay.

• 1:55:08Bill Simmons?

  Good luck getting a 50. What's your, what's your last pick?

• 1:55:11Speaker 01

  I have a very quick question for you. Why didn't you take San Francisco from eight and a half down to two and a half? Against Arizona?

• 1:55:18Bill Simmons?

  Something scares me about that game.

• 1:55:19Speaker 01

  Okay, that's all.

• 1:55:20Bill Simmons?

  That's it.

• 1:55:21Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:55:21Bill Simmons?

  I, I don't think Arizona's as bad as they looked last week. I thought Seattle's defense is so fucking good. They just completely undressed them and clipped their wings and got in their heads. And I thought Arizona wilted. But I don't, I don't, San Francisco's lost a lot of receivers. They've looked really good the first two weeks. There's a lot of purdy buzz.

• 1:55:40Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:55:41Bill Simmons?

  And it just felt like jumping on one bane wagon and getting off another. I don't know. I just didn't like it.

• 1:55:46Speaker 01

  No problem. No problem.

• 1:55:47Bill Simmons?

  Seemed too easy.

• 1:55:48Speaker 01

  Just wanted to ask it, um, cause I might end up playing San Francisco laying the eight and a half.

• 1:55:53Bill Simmons?

  I would rather do it that way and, and, uh, figure it out that way. All right. What's your last pick?

• 1:55:59Speaker 01

  I, I'm torn because I have Seattle minus seven written down here and it was, it opened minus six. I bet it Sunday night as fast as I could with a, you know, amount of money that I'm uncomfortable with.

• 1:56:11Bill Simmons?

  It's Seattle seven and a half.

• 1:56:12Speaker 01

  I know. That's why I'm describing what happened. It was seven this morning as I was making my notes and everything. It's up to seven and a half because nobody in America is taking Washington. Like there are not going to be, they have to.

• 1:56:24Bill Simmons?

  And people are teasing them, all kinds of stuff.

• 1:56:26Speaker 01

  Right. It has to get to eight and a half before I would consider taking Washington.

• 1:56:30Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:56:30Speaker 01

  So I'm going back to the well with something. This is a place where you, you, I'm going against every single trend that's ever been trended in, in week three. And I'm taking the Chiefs to win by margin against the Miami Dolphins. I have to keep betting against the Dolphins.

• 1:56:47Bill Simmons?

  I like it. I don't mind it.

• 1:56:49Speaker 01

  Every week that the Dolphins are less than two touchdowns, I have to take it. It's, it's just a mandatory play for me. There's no evidence whatsoever of that's a, a, a defense capable of stopping anybody and they have no interest in it. I mean, they were kind of feisty in the first half against the Niners. Then the Niners came out and scored on their first two drives in the second half and the football game was over. They should have mercy ruled the fourth quarter so that nobody got hurt on, on either team, honestly. There's just no, no, no point. They are.

• 1:57:18Bill Simmons?

  It becomes college football, right? You're just basically betting a big college football spread, knowing that the talent's like not fair.

• 1:57:25Speaker 01

  So it's 10 and a half, Kansas City minus 10 and a half? Sure. Great. Done. I mean, there's, there's just not, no evidence of competent football coming out of that Miami team.

• 1:57:37Bill Simmons?

  I looked at it for a while.

• 1:57:41Bill Simmons?

  It scared me that Casey's coming off a fun win.

• 1:57:46Bill Simmons?

  It scared me that they're in an easy stretch right now where it's at Miami, at Las Vegas, bye week.

• 1:57:51Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:57:51Bill Simmons?

  And you start like, oh, we're going to go four and out. And, and, and then the weather piece scared me and I couldn't get there with the double digits. Cause I don't think they're, I didn't, their defense certainly was not great in week two, Casey.

• 1:58:02Speaker 01

  And Mahomes as a double digit favorite is terrible. Mahomes on the road as a double digit favorite is terrible. Miami fits every single trend in terms of a team coming in 0 and 2 against the spread.

• 1:58:13Bill Simmons?

  I think it's a smart pick.

• 1:58:14Speaker 01

  Yeah, but I, I don't care. I mean, it's, it's not a 100% trend, so I'll take the Chiefs and lay the points. I don't care.

• 1:58:22Bill Simmons?

  For my last pick, I really wanted to do Browns plus two and a half against the Panthers. And was just thinking about how funny it would be to say one last chance to bet on Deshaun Watson against Deshaun Watson, now betting on him.

• 1:58:34Speaker 01

  On him.

• 1:58:36Bill Simmons?

  I do think they can win this game though, but I, I think it's just to stay away. And I, it's Browns plus two and a half. And if it was three, I might be a little more interested.

• 1:58:44Speaker 01

  Good call.

• 1:58:46Bill Simmons?

  I looked long and hard at Raiders plus three over the Saints. Because the Saints were down 21-0 in week one, 14-3, 14-3 in week two. They're down seven and they're down eight in both fourth quarters and they can't run the ball. And I think the Raiders are well coached and they can block. And I don't mind them, but I, I just couldn't get there. That seems like a last minute of the game game.

• 1:59:11Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:59:12Bill Simmons?

  So I'm going with another team that has burned me

• 1:59:17Bill Simmons?

  two weeks in a row.

• 1:59:20Bill Simmons?

  The Houston Texans.

• 1:59:21Speaker 01

  Yeah. I almost did it.

• 1:59:24Bill Simmons?

  They're playing in Indianapolis. The line has dropped. The line is down minus one and a half. It is, they're the, probably the most desperate team in the, of week three, other than Tampa, who I still have. But, um, two things. They actually really shut down Cincy and then just gave up a couple bigger plays. Cause they have Jamar Chase and they have T. Higgins. Indiana doesn't have anybody like that. Pierce is out for the year or most of the year. They basically have Downs. They don't have Pittman anymore. Tyler Warren, cover him and you're good. And I don't, and Daniel Jones can't move.

• 2:00:02Bill Simmons?

  And this just feels like we're giving up 112 total yards this week, that kind of game.

• 2:00:09Bill Simmons?

  Offensively, just they're not, the, the, Indy's defense is terrible. They're going to be able to run the ball finally. You know, after playing who they played, um, last week, I think they'll have a little more success. And I don't know, CJ wasn't bad last week. I thought he had some really good throws. I think they can score. But I think they can shut down the Colts more importantly. I don't know. How are the Colts going to move the ball without Pierce? Who are you afraid of on that offense other than Taylor? Just shut down Taylor. You win the game.

• 2:00:38Speaker 01

  Yeah. I don't know. They did a great job, um, getting Taylor.

• 2:00:42Bill Simmons?

  I, I get it. I don't love the pick.

• 2:00:44Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:00:45Bill Simmons?

  I don't love it, but I like it.

• 2:00:46Speaker 01

  I decided to stay away from Houston this week. I went with them. I gave them out as my wise wager two consecutive weeks on the show. Guess what my record is with wise wagers? I mean, I just believe in Houston. I think ultimately they are going to be.

• 2:00:58Bill Simmons?

  That's the thing. It's like, am I going to get scared off because of how week one went when they dropped the game winning interception? And then last week, which was just a stupid clusterfuck and one of those dumb NFL games that happen all the time. And it's, and they don't have Nico Collins.

• 2:01:10Speaker 01

  Right.

• 2:01:11Bill Simmons?

  And am I going to panic or am I going to really believe this is an 0-3 football team?

• 2:01:18Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. We'll see if the, we'll see if Cali or say Gordon had, had some good notes in her notebook.

• 2:01:24Speaker 01

  Let's see what her notes are. Yeah.

• 2:01:25Bill Simmons?

  Keyshawn Booty. All right, House, here's what we have. Ringer 107. We're both five and five, hoping for a big week here. You have Ravens minus three and a half in Brazil. You have Jaguars minus two and a half at home against the Patriots. And you have the Chiefs minus 11 and a half.

• 2:01:40Speaker 01

  10 and a half.

• 2:01:41Bill Simmons?

  10 and a half.

• 2:01:42Speaker 01

  But 11 and a half is, 11 and a half is fine. 12 and a half, whatever you want.

• 2:01:46Bill Simmons?

  You pick them 13 and a half.

• 2:01:47Speaker 01

  I would.

• 2:01:48Bill Simmons?

  It's 10 and a half under the premise that Miami just keep betting against them until these lines go into the twenties. And your tease is going to be Titans up to eight and a half against the Giants and Jameis Winston. And the Bucks up to seven and a half at home, trying to win their first game of the season against Minnesota. I have as my tease, Seattle down to minus one and a half and the under in the Cincy Pittsburgh game, 48 and a half under.

• 2:02:15Speaker 01

  It's a good one.

• 2:02:16Bill Simmons?

  49 beats me. I have the Jags minus two and a half against my beloved Patriots. Have to do it. Ringer 107, you can't have favorite teams. You're just trying to make the best picks. I do not like the spots for the Patriots this week. Bucks plus one and a half against Minnesota. And then last but not least, the Texans minus one and a half. So basically I'm applying the symbiotic strategy. I, I, I'm still backing these Bucks Texans teams. And if it, and if it fails me, so be it.

• 2:02:49Speaker 01

  So be it.

• 2:02:50Bill Simmons?

  We'll see.

• 2:02:50Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 2:02:50Bill Simmons?

  Happy gambling in week three, House.

• 2:02:52Speaker 01

  Best of luck to both of us.

• 2:02:55Bill Simmons?

  Today's Ringer 107 was brought to you by FanDuel. Download the app now to find all of our 107 picks. Make this your most rewarding season ever. FanDuel, play your game. Odds subject to change.

• 2:03:07Bill Simmons?

  All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to House and Pellicera. Thanks to Gao and Eduardo and Chris as well. Don't forget new rewatchables coming on Monday. We are doing 13 going on 30. I'm going to be back on this podcast Sunday night with Cousin Sal, who's fighting through it, still fighting through those kidney stones. We'll see if he can make it to, uh, to Sunday night. Enjoy the weekend. See you Sunday night.

• 2:03:49Bill Simmons?

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