The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal for Part 2 of their annual NFL over/unders pod ahead of the new season. NFC East (2:43) NFC North (25:45) NFC South (45:41) NFC West (01:00:51) Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producers: Chia Hao Tat, Eduardo Ocampo, and Steve Ceruti Get anything delivered on Uber Eats. www.ubereats.com The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  I'm pro football Hall of Famer Brian Dawkins, and I lived for a long time with something I did not know the name of: major depressive disorder. I carried sadness and anger because I thought I could handle it alone, but I couldn't. Now I want to make sure others know that that support is out there. If you're experiencing similar symptoms, talk to a healthcare professional. Visit mddallies.com to watch my story.

• 0:25Speaker 01

  Paid partnership with Johnson & Johnson. Brian Dawkins has not prescribed Caplyta lumateperone.

• 0:37Speaker 02

  I needed more from my antidepressant, so my doctor added Caplyta lumateperone, proven to provide greater relief from depression symptoms than an antidepressant alone, building on my progress without starting over. Caplyta is for adults with major depressive disorder when used with an antidepressant and is available by prescription only. Individual results may vary. In clinical trials, weight gain was not common.

• 0:57Speaker 01

  Elderly dementia patients have increased risk of death or stroke. Caplyta is not approved for dementia-related psychosis. Call your doctor about new or sudden mood changes, behaviors, or suicidal thoughts right away. Antidepressants may increase these risks. Report fever, confusion, stiff muscles, which may be life-threatening, or uncontrolled muscle movements, which may be permanent. High cholesterol and weight gain may occur, as can high blood sugar, which may be fatal. Monitoring is recommended. Common side effects are sleepiness, dizziness, nausea, dry mouth, feeling tired, and diarrhea. These aren't all the side effects.

• 1:24Speaker 02

  Ask your doctor about Caplyta. Learn more at caplyta.com or call 888-252-4824.

• 1:30Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Carhartt. We spend a lot of time talking about football, the players, the coaches, the big plays, but there's a whole other team we rarely think about, the people who make the game possible, the workers building stadiums, paving parking lots, growing the grass, welding the goalposts, even making the footballs. They're committed to their craft and they're doing the work long before kickoff. Carhartt is proud to outfit those crews. So next time you're watching a game, take a second to appreciate the people behind it. Learn more at carhartt.com/jointhetraids.

• 2:01Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast, brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where you can find the Ringer Gambling Show.

• 2:06Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:06Bill Simmons?

  With Cousin Sal. You're on Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday during the season, and we have all these cool pairings. We got a YouTube channel. We're gonna be putting up.

• 2:13Speaker 04

  It's great.

• 2:14Bill Simmons?

  Shorts for bets. So anytime college football, you get excited about, I really like Baylor today. You just like do selfie video, throw it on there.

• 2:23Speaker 04

  Good pull with Baylor. That is like.

• 2:24Bill Simmons?

  Is that you like Baylor?

• 2:25Speaker 04

  That's nice. That's nice. Yeah.

• 2:27Bill Simmons?

  I'm actually gonna watch college football this year.

• 2:28Speaker 04

  And it's live, too. So if I have to drop a deuce, you're coming with me. I'll bring the laptop in. It's a lot of fun.

• 2:33Bill Simmons?

  Who am I betting on for the OSU game?

• 2:35Speaker 04

  I like, uh, is this gonna air before that?

• 2:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:37Speaker 04

  I like Texas. I think they're in a good spot.

• 2:39Bill Simmons?

  Well, we did, for part one, we covered the AFC in our annual over-under podcast, which we've been doing. This is the 19th year for us.

• 2:46Speaker 04

  Mm-hmm.

• 2:46Bill Simmons?

  Uh, in part two, we're gonna be doing the NFC.

• 2:50Speaker 04

  And we're skipping the NFC East? I'm fine.

• 2:52Bill Simmons?

  We're doing all 16 teams, including yours. The sad sack Dallas Cowboys. It's all coming up next. We're gonna take a break, and we're gonna Pearl Jam, and then the NFC East.

• 3:29Bill Simmons?

  All right, you were dreading this. We're gonna cover the NFC East and do over-unders. I'll just tell a story before we do it, though. So I'm getting a colonoscopy in September.

• 3:40Bill Simmons?

  But I, somebody, have you had one?

• 3:42Speaker 04

  Mm-hmm.

• 3:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. What was the clean-out drill? How many days?

• 3:46Speaker 04

  That's the worst part.

• 3:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 3:47Speaker 04

  I think it was like a little more than a day.

• 3:49Bill Simmons?

  So I scheduled it for a Monday, near the end of the month. And I was gonna do it, you know, do, we do guest lines on Sunday night. I'm like, that's fine. I'm not gonna. So my wife was like, you can't do that on a Monday. Like you're, don't you do your podcast live on Sunday with sound? I was like, you're right.

• 4:07Speaker 04

  That's worse than a fall wedding to me, like scheduling colonoscopy.

• 4:11Bill Simmons?

  Well, so either I could move it, or is it funnier if I have it the next day and I take the clean out stuff and we're just live on YouTube and I might have to run off like twice?

• 4:22Speaker 04

  I like that.

• 4:23Bill Simmons?

  Is that better for you?

• 4:24Speaker 04

  Yeah, I'll do your voice while you're shitting. It's fun.

• 4:27Bill Simmons?

  Do we need, should we have somebody on the, on the phone or somebody, somebody you could talk to if I'm like, uh oh, and I just have to run?

• 4:33Speaker 04

  Can we have your doctor on?

• 4:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I think I'm gonna keep the colon. I'm gonna keep it for that Monday. More fun, right? What do you think, Al?

• 4:40Speaker 04

  I'll just sprint out of there. We'll read the comments.

• 4:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it'll be fine. You just interact with the crowd. All right.

• 4:45Speaker 04

  All right.

• 4:45Bill Simmons?

  Speaking of colonoscopies, the NFC East.

• 4:50Bill Simmons?

  Philadelphia. Over 11 and a half. I thought it was gonna be lower. There's reasons. The, uh, the NFC East plays the AFC West and the NFC North, the two best divisions we have. Philly has, I tried to do a point schedule, a point total thing for schedules that I just made up and they had the highest one. They play the first place schedule. They have night games. They have a European game. It's just a nightmare. And I think that's why it's 11 and a half and not 13 and a half. And, uh, I'll tell you what I'm gonna do in a second. Where were you leaning on this?

• 5:26Speaker 04

  I mean, listen, I want to predict an Eagles demise more than anybody, but I think it would be disingenuous. The only thing I have going for, for me is no team has repeated as NFC East champ for 21 years. Eagles did it last in 2004 and, uh, Kellen Moore is out, the offensive coordinator, which freaks people out typically. I know they do with the, with the Lions, but Hertz actually had six offensive coordinators in six years. That's crazy. Yeah, that's really nuts. So, um, you know, they went from 31st to fifth in red zone under Fangio. They lose a bunch of defensive players, Swed, Huff, Milton Williams, but they freaking just draft. Ballers, the more defensive brutalizers. They got Jahad Campbell from Alabama and a Kobe Dean injury might be worse than they thought.

• 6:11Speaker 04

  You know, they got the safety, Makuba. He's a hard hitter. So I think, you know, you went over that schedule. They were eight and two in close games. And they played the easiest run defense last year. But other than that, the fucking tush push didn't get banned. And so if they can get to third and three, they move the chains. Third and three, fourth and one. There it goes. You're good. So I have the Eagles with 11 wins, which is under 11 and six, good enough to repeat as champs.

• 6:37Bill Simmons?

  I did my talent rankings for them and they were the highest by like six points. They had 38. I mean, they have just on offense, Hertz, Barkley, Brown, Devante Smith, Goddard. Their offensive line is top four. They got seven points. Defense, Carter, Bond, Dejounte Mitchell. They had a good draft. Sirianni's top 10 coaching staff.

• 6:56Speaker 04

  Right.

• 6:58Bill Simmons?

  It's depressing, Sal. I feel bad for you that this team's in your division.

• 7:02Speaker 04

  They re-signed Barkley, Lane Johnson, you know, Cam Jergens, like everything they need to do.

• 7:07Bill Simmons?

  Number one seed plus 370, conference plus 370, Super Bowl seven to one, playoffs minus 350. I guess here's my question. So the Chiefs became the 2010 Patriots, the Brady's, the second decade Patriots, right? They just kind of assumed that mantle. Mahomes became Brady, Reid, the whole offense and just doing their magic. Are the Eagles becoming Belichick's 2000's Patriots? Defense, just like smart. They have like little gimmicky stuff that they do to, to, to get points. They just kind of outthink teams. They had the, the Kurtz Carter picks. They stole A.J. Brown. They stole that Bond guy that wasn't even on anyone's radar.

• 7:52Bill Simmons?

  They stole Barkley. They nail every draft. They're lurking for every unhappy guy. Thank God you're not going to trade Parsons to him because even Jerry Jones wouldn't do that.

• 8:00Speaker 04

  I haven't updated anything.

• 8:01Bill Simmons?

  They built through the Lions and out, which now everybody's stealing. Like they're just the smartest team. This is what the Patriots were in the 2000's.

• 8:07Speaker 04

  Howie Roseman's great. I mean, who was your Howie Roseman? I guess it was just Belichick.

• 8:10Bill Simmons?

  It was Belichick, but he was literally recreating how you put together a. Roster for five years.

• 8:15Speaker 04

  Yeah, take four of our top 10 best defensive players. Don't worry, we'll resign and we'll make the money work. Like it just, it happens year after year. I mean, they went 12 and one. I mean, they killed teams at the end. Think about what they did. I guess the Rams, that was a weird game. So that that could have gone a different way. But when they beat up on Washington and then the Super Bowl, like if that continues, I hope they're the team to beat. And so everybody goes after them a little more, but this just could be how it is for the Eagles. I mean, we talked about how those top four quarterbacks are kind of set with, you know, Burrow, Allen, Mahomes and Lamar.

• 8:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 8:51Speaker 04

  But is Jalen Hurts, can he make the move this year into the top?

• 8:54Bill Simmons?

  Can he go up a notch?

• 8:55Speaker 04

  Yeah. Or is he there?

• 8:58Bill Simmons?

  It's a really hard over under and I changed my mind on it 100 times. And at one point I was at 11 with it because I was going through the schedule. I'm like, Jesus Christ. Other than the two Giants games.

• 9:13Speaker 04

  Those NFC North.

• 9:13Bill Simmons?

  Chargers, two Dallas games. Those are their five easiest games. Those aren't even easy games.

• 9:18Speaker 04

  I know. They really could go five and one in the division. But that NFC North, they're on the road against the three, three good teams, right? Tampa Bay. Oh, I'm sorry. Yeah. Minnesota, Green Bay. And they're home for Detroit. Could be tough.

• 9:30Bill Simmons?

  Well, they also, they have the night games like at Buffalo. They have a Friday night game, week 13. Like they have one, two, two Thursday night games. They have a Saturday game. They have a couple of Sunday, Monday games. And it's post Super Bowl. Everything went well for them last year. Barkley had almost 500 touches when you include the playoffs. Like, could he break down? Are they going to have the same offensive line health? Look.

• 9:55Speaker 04

  Right.

• 9:57Bill Simmons?

  But when you start talking about that, when it's like reasons not to pick a team to be really good. Their offensive line could get hurt. Oh, as opposed to the other 31 teams. That's not a reason?

• 10:06Speaker 04

  It's so weak.

• 10:07Bill Simmons?

  They're going to be really good. I don't see how they don't go 12 and 5.

• 10:10Speaker 04

  12 and 5. All right.

• 10:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 10:12Speaker 04

  I'm 11 and 6. I just think, you know, when teams are gunning for you and they do have that weird schedule a little bit. Four toughest strength of schedule, so.

• 10:20Bill Simmons?

  Are they going to lose six times? That would be 11 and 6. Or are they going to lose five times? So it should be 12 and 5.

• 10:27Speaker 04

  That's a big question.

• 10:28Bill Simmons?

  I don't love this. I don't love this pick, but I went 12 and 5. I went over. Crazy that this became.

• 10:38Bill Simmons?

  Such a, such a like ongoing juggernaut. The Eagles.

• 10:42Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 10:43Bill Simmons?

  Cause I feel like this is actually sustainable for the decade. Right. Which is another weird thing about where we are right now, where we have this Chiefs infrastructure. We have what they're building. The Packers have a chance, I think, to have an infrastructure.

• 10:55Speaker 04

  Right.

• 10:56Bill Simmons?

  The Broncos, maybe. Buffalo has it already. Baltimore has it already. We have like very competent.

• 11:03Speaker 04

  What's your secret, Howie Roseman? Well, I draft the fattest, strongest lineman in the SEC.

• 11:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 11:08Speaker 04

  On both sides of the ball. And that's it.

• 11:10Bill Simmons?

  Well, I mean, fucking Carter falls to them. Like, that could have been, Indianapolis just could have taken them. They took Anthony Richardson, who doesn't play for them anymore.

• 11:18Speaker 04

  Right.

• 11:20Bill Simmons?

  Washington is nine and a half.

• 11:24Bill Simmons?

  This is the all time regression candidate. There's a million things. And if you're gonna go over for them nine and a half, it's a Jaden Daniels pick. There's no other reason. House and Chang and those guys will be like, no, no, we got better. We added this guy, that guy. You're, you're, you went sideways.

• 11:39Speaker 04

  No.

• 11:40Bill Simmons?

  This is all about Jaden Daniels and what has he got in him. Plus 220 for the division. Second place, plus 175, which I think is pretty enticing.

• 11:50Bill Simmons?

  You could zag against them and that, which I think would have to be a Daniels injury. But under seven and a half wins is plus 270. They were 12 and five. Last year. How can everything go right two years in a row? They had a Hail Mary last year. They had four crazy wins.

• 12:07Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 12:07Bill Simmons?

  They had the God given schedule of all time.

• 12:10Speaker 04

  That Eagles regular season win that they're, you know, right, Jackson catch. Yeah, I, I have them way under. They're the oldest team in the NFL in 13 years. They signed and traded for or resigned 13 players who are 30 or older this year.

• 12:27Speaker 04

  And that was before Von Miller. So, you know, I, they took Detroit by surprise. Great win. Well, let's do this. Quarterbacks they faced 24. Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Caleb Williams, Daniel Jones, Cooper Rush. They lost that game. Will Levis, Jake Hanner, Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, Trey Lance, Deshaun Watson, and then Joe Burrow. I mean, they converted 87% of four downs, which is insane. This is, this is like.

• 12:51Bill Simmons?

  And their defense was awful against good offenses.

• 12:54Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah. They were like 29th against the run. So, one thing is they're favored in 12 games this year.

• 12:59Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 12:59Speaker 04

  Um, but their road games are Green Bay, Chargers, KC, Miami, Minnesota, Philly. Those are tough. I'm going eight wins. I'm going under and no playoffs.

• 13:08Bill Simmons?

  And I went, uh.

• 13:09Speaker 04

  I'm bitter for sure.

• 13:10Bill Simmons?

  I went nine and eight, but you could talk me into eight nine. I went under either way. The worst quarterbacks they played this year, Giants twice, Gino, Darnold, Tua, Knicks. So it's a little different than, uh, than last year. They went, everyone's talked about this, 20 for 23 and fourth down last year. That's not replicable. Safety stink. Pass rush might be bad. They lost Allen, like, you know, they, they just might not have a good defense. I don't trust Marshawn Lattimore, who they traded some stuff for last year. And, uh, and the spotlight's different, man. You look at the schedule and it's like Thursday, Monday, Monday, Sunday, Madrid, Sunday, Saturday, Christmas. Like they're in the spotlight

• 13:52Bill Simmons?

  week after week. And if anything goes wrong, that spotlight gets super hot.

• 13:56Speaker 04

  Sure.

• 13:57Bill Simmons?

  Here's the, the zag would be everybody is picking them to be a regression team. And the odds of Jaden Daniels actually being like special.

• 14:07Speaker 04

  Right.

• 14:07Bill Simmons?

  Where could he be Mahomes, Lamar, Josh Allen, where it's like you just have to give him 11 wins.

• 14:13Speaker 04

  Right.

• 14:14Bill Simmons?

  That would be the case for.

• 14:15Speaker 04

  And the running back's good. McCroskey, the one they call Bill, right?

• 14:19Bill Simmons?

  So I'm sure he's good. His seventh round pick.

• 14:22Speaker 04

  Of course we're not.

• 14:23Bill Simmons?

  Everyone's like, ah, I like him. It's like, okay.

• 14:25Speaker 04

  You gotta root for him. He calls himself Bill for no reason.

• 14:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I like that. I should do that. I had for Chipper's Daniels McLaurin. That's it on offense. On defense, Allen, Louvo. Louvo and Wagner and then Quinn as a coach, but it's not, it's, it's kind of a top heavy team with not a

• 14:44Speaker 04

  Old man. They're old. That's an old team. 30 is pretty old.

• 14:48Bill Simmons?

  And they're also like with the offensive line, like they took Josh Connerly late in the first round and

• 14:54Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 14:54Bill Simmons?

  He's gonna have to be our left tackle. We just gotta keep our fingers crossed.

• 14:57Speaker 04

  Right, right, right.

• 14:58Bill Simmons?

  You know, and that our right tackle and they traded for Tunsil. Who Houston was really happy to get rid of.

• 15:05Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 15:06Bill Simmons?

  But that would have been a red flag to me.

• 15:07Speaker 04

  Yeah, they, they, the way they spent money was kind of weird. Was, it wasn't like an up and coming wild card team from the year before, but um, yeah, they got some age behind them.

• 15:15Bill Simmons?

  It's like this weekend when you have custody of Brad all weekend and you're just offering him to me like he's Laramie Tunsil. You should, any interested in trading for?

• 15:24Speaker 04

  He has that mask too, that Laramie Tunsil mask though. That'll be fun.

• 15:28Bill Simmons?

  So this is what, this going back to like what we said at part one where it's like, I don't like this season as much. I don't feel as comfortable with the over runners. Like the Washington under looks too easy.

• 15:37Speaker 04

  Well, that, yeah, that's the one I'm most confident in. So yeah, you're probably right.

• 15:41Bill Simmons?

  I had them.

• 15:41Speaker 04

  It's okay. Some people are making a case for them. Joe House, the fans, everyone.

• 15:46Bill Simmons?

  Well, I did this bet with all the Washington fans I know. Pats versus Washington.

• 15:50Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 15:51Bill Simmons?

  They gave me two wins because the Pats have a two win lower over under the Washington.

• 15:55Speaker 04

  That's such a, that's easy. They don't play each other, right?

• 15:58Bill Simmons?

  So we bet, we, we have the bet, but then Chang wanted to go.

• 16:02Speaker 04

  Of course.

• 16:03Bill Simmons?

  Game by game for the price that was the bet for everybody else. So like if the Pats go, uh, I don't know, 10 and seven and the, and Washington goes seven and 10, I would, I would have five units on Chang.

• 16:15Speaker 04

  Okay.

• 16:16Bill Simmons?

  He's very confident.

• 16:17Speaker 04

  He can never lose enough money, that guy. He loves it.

• 16:20Bill Simmons?

  He just wanted the more action. Speaking of action, Dallas Cowboys.

• 16:24Speaker 04

  Skip, pass. You get one pass, everyone gets a pass, right?

• 16:28Bill Simmons?

  Seven and a half is your over under. Five to one for the division, plus 186 for the playoffs. Uh, if you want to go under five and a half wins, which I think is pretty enticing, three to one.

• 16:43Bill Simmons?

  What's better about their defense this year? Anything? Also, your best player is in street clothes.

• 16:48Speaker 04

  Yeah, I put the over under at August 25th and here we are the 27th. I don't know when you guys are listening, but these are crucial day, three days for him to sign. Not that they're going to beat the Eagles in week one, but uh, yeah, that was awful. We saw them lose to the Packers, right? In the playoffs and then their defense just got worse, apparently. Like, you know, the car beat them. The Saints put up 40 against them. They were getting crushed at home. This is a team that would never really lose at home.

• 17:14Bill Simmons?

  You gave up 468 points.

• 17:16Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 17:17Bill Simmons?

  It's like 30 again, basically.

• 17:18Speaker 04

  Yeah. So we have to, we have to outslug teams, kind of like the Bengals, except we're probably not as talented. I do like the Pickens. Look, I'm on too many Cowboys text threads and Twitter accounts and newsletters to have a, a proper perspective for this team. I'm overcome with negativity. Like Joe Milton throws interception, like they're going to go two and 15 because he kills the first team defense in practice. So I.

• 17:43Bill Simmons?

  Oh, is that true? He's killing the first team.

• 17:45Speaker 04

  There is, there is. And there's a chance his Brian Schottenheimer is a disaster. I mean, they didn't care, Jerry. I'm just going to watch the documentary on a loop for probably the first six weeks and that's it. Yeah.

• 17:57Bill Simmons?

  They were somehow 24th in DVOA last year on defense. I don't know how there were eight teams worse. They were 32nd in run defense and they went from McCarthy to Schottenheimer. I don't know what that does. They, running backs are, they just threw away the position again. Really strange.

• 18:12Speaker 04

  You want a great stat on running backs?

• 18:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 18:14Speaker 04

  Sharp again. Despite 140 running back runs through week nine, they didn't have a single rush over 15 yards. 140, you and I could touch the ball 140 times.

• 18:26Bill Simmons?

  Not one time a hole opened up and the defensive back fell down.

• 18:28Speaker 04

  Nothing, nothing. And that doesn't get better with Javante Williams. They're going to have to get better with the Clemson, get lucky with the Clemson kid. I don't know. I mean.

• 18:36Bill Simmons?

  Well, what happens if Parsons misses the first two games? Cause we're taping this on a late Wednesday afternoon, Pacific time. And Chris Jones did this two years ago. He missed the first game. I think they lost and then they signed him.

• 18:48Speaker 04

  Yeah. The second game's against the Giants. You would think, you would think, Jerry, after being 0-1, which they will be, we'll have him locked up. But I, I say seven and 10. I'm pleasantly surprised if they exceed seven wins.

• 19:02Bill Simmons?

  They can't run the ball and they can't stop the run.

• 19:04Speaker 04

  Hmm.

• 19:05Bill Simmons?

  And they also have a brutal schedule.

• 19:07Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 19:07Bill Simmons?

  Even they play the third place schedule, which is. The Jets, Denver and Arizona.

• 19:13Speaker 04

  Mm hmm.

• 19:14Bill Simmons?

  That kinda sucks that people like, obviously, we, we were big on Denver in the last podcast and people like Arizona.

• 19:21Speaker 04

  Look at those last six or six of the last seven.

• 19:24Bill Simmons?

  There's a stretch where they go at Raiders, home Eagles.

• 19:27Speaker 04

  That's it.

• 19:28Bill Simmons?

  Chiefs on Thanksgiving, at Lions, then finish it up with the Vikings on a Sunday night.

• 19:32Speaker 04

  Yep. And even Chargers and at Washington. Yeah. I have them losing to the Giants, which hasn't happened in a while. In that last game, which puts them at seven and 10. That's just a brutal, although, you know, the one, I mean, I guess. The only upside is that wide receiver core, like even though the Steelers seem to know when to move on from wide receivers. Pickens and Lamb is pretty damn good, right? He's gonna, there's gonna be some long balls in there. They're gonna have 35 points. And their defense is gonna have to kill them.

• 19:59Bill Simmons?

  I have them going five and 12 and going.

• 20:01Speaker 04

  Wow. Look at you. Throw this in your face.

• 20:04Bill Simmons?

  But I'll say this.

• 20:05Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 20:05Bill Simmons?

  I think it's gonna be a fun five and 12 team.

• 20:07Speaker 04

  Oh, yeah.

• 20:08Bill Simmons?

  Dak, Lamb.

• 20:10Speaker 04

  Sure.

• 20:11Bill Simmons?

  Pickens, like they're gonna get fantasy points. I had no idea he was gonna run the ball.

• 20:15Speaker 04

  What a jerk. Fun five and 12.

• 20:21Bill Simmons?

  You don't like the idea of a fun five and 12?

• 20:23Speaker 04

  No, no. Give me a boring, whatever the Chargers do, nine and eight every year.

• 20:28Bill Simmons?

  You wouldn't consider, like, you wouldn't be consider at any point doing what I did last year and starting to root against them?

• 20:33Speaker 04

  I can't do it. I don't have, you know, I know people who like kinda own teams and stuff. I don't like it. I don't like it.

• 20:40Bill Simmons?

  Uh, back to the, I absolutely cannot believe this team made the playoffs list where we had three and 24 and two, or four and 23 and then two and 22. So this always happens.

• 20:51Speaker 04

  What do you mean? Oh, that year they beat Minnesota?

• 20:53Bill Simmons?

  No, no, I'm just saying, cause we're going to the next team.

• 20:55Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 20:58Bill Simmons?

  We had three teams, Minnesota, Washington, Denver last year, all with three to one odds or better, basically.

• 21:03Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 21:04Bill Simmons?

  This year we have Vegas plus 320, Tennessee plus 390, Jets, Giants plus 680. Saints plus 820 and Cleveland plus 920.

• 21:15Bill Simmons?

  I really wanted to do it. I wanted to put the, the Giants in the playoffs. The vibes are immaculate.

• 21:23Bill Simmons?

  I wanted to do it.

• 21:25Speaker 04

  The schedule.

• 21:25Bill Simmons?

  The Dart, it seems like they hit the jackpot with Dart. Like for real.

• 21:30Speaker 04

  You think so?

• 21:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it seems like he's gonna be playing by week four and he's gonna be good.

• 21:33Speaker 04

  Oh, alright.

• 21:34Bill Simmons?

  Seems like he is just checking every box for this guy might have it. Uh, Abdul Carter was the best guy in the draft.

• 21:43Speaker 04

  Yeah, he couldn't get through, it's true, Carter's favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year. He couldn't get through the EZ Pass, Jackson Dart, that bothers me a little bit.

• 21:52Bill Simmons?

  What do you mean?

• 21:52Speaker 04

  I think he's racking up tickets just driving through the EZ Pass because he doesn't understand it. Doesn't that bother you? Like if you had, that was your quarterback? That's what he said. He said, I don't get, I don't know what it is, I just keep going.

• 22:02Bill Simmons?

  He couldn't solve the EZ Pass?

• 22:03Speaker 04

  No, no, look it up. It's crazy. It's the schedule though, I, I think they're gonna be like the Jets where they're competitive. I like to bet them over eight and a half.

• 22:11Bill Simmons?

  I think they're gonna be more than competitive.

• 22:13Speaker 04

  Really?

• 22:14Bill Simmons?

  There's a ca, so first of all, they, they, there's a real case they might have the best D-line in the league. With those guys, with Byrne and Thibodeau. Burns and Thibodeau and add Carter to it, Lawrence.

• 22:24Speaker 04

  Pass rush wise, they don't, they give up running, a lot of running.

• 22:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but I'm just saying, like, if they can get a lead and they're in the second half and those guys could just come after.

• 22:33Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 22:34Bill Simmons?

  Whoever, like, that's gonna be a scary team. It seems like, so Thomas came back as their left tackle.

• 22:39Speaker 04

  Mm-hmm.

• 22:40Bill Simmons?

  That was big. Neighbors going for 50 bucks and first round pick in fantasy.

• 22:46Speaker 04

  Wilson throws that, that moon ball that connects every now and then, that could be, that could be.

• 22:51Bill Simmons?

  I think we've seen for three weeks. I was looking at it, at Commanders, at Cowboys, home Chiefs. Home Chargers, at Saints, I think he, he's, Chargers game I think he's starting.

• 23:03Speaker 04

  Where is that?

• 23:04Bill Simmons?

  Week four.

• 23:04Speaker 04

  Four?

• 23:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 23:05Speaker 04

  Hmm.

• 23:05Bill Simmons?

  I don't think you start him against the Chiefs on Sunday night, you don't want any part of that.

• 23:09Speaker 04

  So then they'd have to be one and two though, you're giving them two lot, or at least two?

• 23:13Bill Simmons?

  I'm, I think they split those first two.

• 23:16Speaker 04

  Yeah, I don't know.

• 23:17Bill Simmons?

  But man, the schedule, when you think the combo of the

• 23:20Speaker 04

  Doesn't get easier.

• 23:21Bill Simmons?

  The two hardest divisions, then their fourth place schedule is the Pats, Vegas and San Francisco.

• 23:26Speaker 04

  Yeah, those are their extras.

• 23:28Bill Simmons?

  How's that fun? So I just couldn't get there. I went through it. I was trying to do every angle to get them to 10 and 7. And because I think 10 and 7 is going to be the NFC 7 seed.

• 23:37Speaker 04

  No, you don't have to. Don't do that. Don't hurt yourself. I have one with 6 and 11, and one of those wins is against my Cowboys in week 18.

• 23:47Bill Simmons?

  I think 10 plus wins plus 750 is a great bet. And I might pick that when we do our futures thing. I just think there's a, the history says-

• 23:57Speaker 04

  You don't see seven losses in there at least?

• 23:59Bill Simmons?

  History says, like we would have said last year with Denver and Washington, we would have been like, no way. Get the fuck out. Like Washington went 12 and 5 last year.

• 24:08Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 24:08Bill Simmons?

  We, I, we both went over for them and, but we were like, over 9 would be a miracle and they won 12.

• 24:14Speaker 04

  Had Daniels for Rookie of the Year. Yeah, I don't know. I don't, I, I, believe me, I liked it. And then I looked at the schedule and I couldn't get there.

• 24:21Bill Simmons?

  Can I offer you this bet?

• 24:23Speaker 04

  1 and 8 and 1 score games.

• 24:24Bill Simmons?

  This on Fanduel, 8 plus wins, plus 300.

• 24:27Speaker 04

  I mean, that could happen. Yeah, that's, that's not bad.

• 24:29Bill Simmons?

  3 to 1 odds on them going 8 and 9.

• 24:33Bill Simmons?

  I like what I, I, I mean, the fact that we gave them Abdul Carter with the Joe Milton thing is, has to be up there with the home a catch with Pats Giants relationships. Now you're stuck with Joe Milton and he's terrible.

• 24:44Speaker 04

  I know, but they also, they lost to the Colts. They would have had Cam Ward otherwise and they end up trading up for Jackson Dart. So they've done some dumb shit.

• 24:53Bill Simmons?

  That's like, that, that's like a transformational draft. I think it's better that they ended up the way they ended up and they, maybe they moved up. I had this written down for them.

• 25:05Bill Simmons?

  I think this is the underdog that ruins the most teasers and parlays this year.

• 25:09Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 25:09Bill Simmons?

  I think there's three or four weeks where they're like plus 8, plus 9, plus 7.

• 25:14Speaker 04

  Stay away from them.

• 25:14Bill Simmons?

  And you put the money favored in there with three other teams and the Giants just fuck it up.

• 25:18Speaker 04

  Well, that's what I said, Fanduel. Let me bet over 8 and 1/2 covers. That's how I want to do it.

• 25:25Bill Simmons?

  That's a really good idea for a bet.

• 25:27Speaker 04

  What?

• 25:28Bill Simmons?

  I'll talk to, I'll talk, we know people at FanDuel.

• 25:30Speaker 04

  I mean, those should all be eight and a half, right? You wouldn't change anything.

• 25:34Bill Simmons?

  All right. Defense, they have, they have a couple, couple studs and then, uh, neighbors is really the only offensive threat. Unless Cam Scatabo can turn into something. But I like the fact, it seemed like they weren't going to be able to block, but now that Thomas is back, maybe they will be. One other thing I like about this team, day ball and a, I'm getting fired if this doesn't work out, fuck it. Like, he's just gonna do, he's.

• 25:56Speaker 04

  He's got a different situation.

• 25:57Bill Simmons?

  If he thinks Dart can play and help them, he's putting them in. Okay, we're gonna take a break and then we'll do the, uh, NFC North. Football is almost back and thank God we get to bet, we get to watch, we get to do all kinds of things with our friends at FanDuel. FanDuel is getting you ready to kick off, the kickoff with an offer you won't want to miss. New customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That's right. Pick a bet, bet five bucks. If it wins, you unlock 300 bucks in bonus bets to use all across the app. Parlays, bet clear props, ride the live lines, whatever your style. FanDuel has you covered. The NFL season, it's so close, it's almost here. The only question is, are you ready to play?

• 26:39Bill Simmons?

  Visit fanduel.com/BS to download the FanDuel app today and get started. You must be 21 plus in present in select states or 18 plus in present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued has non-withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat. Connecticut paid endorsement. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. Summer is here and you can now get almost anything you need for your sunny days delivered with Uber Eats. What do I mean by almost?

• 27:23Bill Simmons?

  Well, you can't get a well-groomed lawn delivered, but you can get chicken parmigiana delivered. I love chicken parm. A day in the sun? No. A bottle of rum? Yes. Uber Eats can definitely get you that. Get almost, almost anything delivered with Uber Eats. Order now. For alcohol, you must be legal drinking age. Please enjoy responsibly. Product availability varies by region. See app for details. All right, before we do the NFC North, the group of, I kinda can't believe they missed the playoffs, which is all the odds, the missing the playoff odds from basically even to plus 160. Washington, Denver, Cincinnati, Rams, Houston, Tampa.

• 28:01Speaker 04

  You've read this like 15 times.

• 28:02Bill Simmons?

  San Francisco, I'm just, I'm resetting. We had four teams miss last year. The Lions are over 10 and a half. They went 15-2 last year.

• 28:13Bill Simmons?

  And there's a chance that we'll miss the playoffs.

• 28:18Bill Simmons?

  Again, that number is plus 138.

• 28:23Bill Simmons?

  Any interest?

• 28:24Speaker 04

  Hate that. I don't think the OC is worth four losses, four more losses. They're gonna go from 15 to, actually it would be five. To be under, they'd have to go from 15 to 10. I think this is, offense is good enough. I mean, there's a lot of ways to go with this team. I think the positives far outweigh the negatives. They were top three in like 10 offensive metrics. So if you want to give that to Johnson, that's fine. I don't think St. Brown, Gibbs, Goff, Laporta are gonna forget how to play football because Johnson's gone. They were 8-0 on the road, 16-1 as 10-point teasers. Their strength of schedule was the third toughest. Their skill positions, players were very healthy. They had like 20 IR guys and most of them were defensive players, including Aiden Hutchinson, who was on his way to a

• 29:08Speaker 04

  a banner year. So Ragnar, you know, he's gone. So that's the offensive line that this could be, you know, this is the problem with everyone. Zeitler went to the Titans, but as long as those skill position players are healthy, I think Dan Campbell's too good to put at like nine wins or 10 wins.

• 29:25Bill Simmons?

  Is this the best division for you?

• 29:28Speaker 04

  I think I gave the AFC West the more wins than this one.

• 29:32Bill Simmons?

  I think it's the two of them together. So here's the case.

• 29:36Speaker 04

  Yeah. 37 wins for this, 39.

• 29:38Bill Simmons?

  I sniffed this out last year.

• 29:39Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 29:40Bill Simmons?

  The year from hell team, San Francisco, because there were already signs before we even started. Here's the case for Detroit. Coming off a devastating playoff loss.

• 29:48Speaker 04

  Right.

• 29:49Bill Simmons?

  Lost both coordinators and seven coaches overall, including Ben Johnson, who I think everybody thought was the best offensive coordinator in the league.

• 29:57Bill Simmons?

  The new offensive coordinator, John Morton, is getting some WTFs.

• 30:01Speaker 04

  Is he just, he's just the, oh, he's the Denver pass coordinator. Yeah.

• 30:07Bill Simmons?

  It's like, what's going on with this guy? Goff went on that quarterback show, just flagging it.

• 30:12Speaker 04

  Right.

• 30:13Bill Simmons?

  Brutal schedule, you mentioned. It's a schedule that includes four more outdoor games than they had last year.

• 30:19Speaker 04

  Right.

• 30:19Bill Simmons?

  That was one of the big things with them last year that we loved was they were just in a dome all the time. And they lost their center and they lost their guard. Like this, this great offensive line that was like the lifeblood of their team. It's just not as good anymore. Right? So that, that would be the case.

• 30:35Speaker 04

  15 wins though is so many to come down from.

• 30:39Bill Simmons?

  I have them in the playoffs, but I have them at 10 and 7.

• 30:42Speaker 04

  Okay. I have 12 wins and a one seed.

• 30:46Bill Simmons?

  I went under. I think it's, I think it's just way more likely things go wrong for this team than right.

• 30:51Speaker 04

  All right.

• 30:52Bill Simmons?

  I mean, from right from like 15 and two, obviously is never happening again. I, there's, I just really like this division.

• 30:58Speaker 04

  Best rest edge as anyone else out of anyone. 13 more rest days than anyone. Yeah. I mean, listen, those eight road games are against teams that finished above 500. So that's, doesn't get more brutal, but I feel like they win these games. A lot of these teams have been playing a first place schedule for a while.

• 31:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 31:15Speaker 04

  Used to it.

• 31:17Bill Simmons?

  I just, I talked about this on a pod previously, when the Pats had that year when they lost Romeo Cornell and Charlie Weiss after the third Superbowl. And heading into 05 and people, and I remember thinking like, everyone was like, this could be a big deal. And it's like, come on. How's this gonna be a big deal? It is a big deal when you have the wrong coordinator, you have different, different language. And I just feel like everything was right for them. But the thing that really worries me is the offensive line because yeah, you can have Jared Goff if you're going to be able to block for him. And now like, if you can push up the middle on him and get to him.

• 31:50Speaker 04

  Zeitler went to the Titans too.

• 31:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So I just feel 10, it's 10 and 7, 11 and 8 range. I don't think they crater. I don't think it's like a Niners thing, but had to mention the year from health thing because I think it's.

• 32:01Speaker 04

  There's always a team. Yeah.

• 32:04Bill Simmons?

  I had them at 26 in my rankings. 26 points. I even gave Goff a four point.

• 32:09Speaker 04

  You did?

• 32:09Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 32:10Speaker 04

  That's nice.

• 32:12Bill Simmons?

  The next team is the team I like in this division, the Green Bay Packers. And I don't think I'm alone.

• 32:17Speaker 04

  I'm with you.

• 32:18Bill Simmons?

  Over nine and a half wins. There's been some juice that really changed with this division plus 220. The Lions for their division were plus 175. The Lions were 10 to 1 to win the Super Bowl and minus 172 for the playoffs. The Packers are now 16 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, minus 138 to the playoffs. So their odds over the, a five month span started to creep toward Detroit.

• 32:42Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 32:43Bill Simmons?

  12 plus wins for them is plus 310, which I have in bold for our future draft. Last year they were 11 and 6, so let's talk about that. I don't feel like a ton of shit went right for them last year, right? Love had, Love was hurt all year. He, at one point, I think he had three different injuries.

• 33:01Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 33:02Bill Simmons?

  Watson gets hurt near the end of the season. It just felt like Jair Alexander was never, like, you never knew what was getting with him. I just felt like for them to go 11 and 6 and got, they got to the point that we were taking them really seriously as a spoiler in January.

• 33:18Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 33:19Bill Simmons?

  And they hung in that, going 11 and 6 in the division where they had Minnesota and Detroit.

• 33:23Speaker 04

  Well, they went 1 and 5 in the division and still ended up with 11 wins.

• 33:27Bill Simmons?

  Unbelievable.

• 33:27Speaker 04

  Bizarre. I, I think this is, I mean, he's a third year quarterback. And if you look at, he was the most cursed quarterback in terms of, like you said, injuries, but also those guys sucked. Like Jaden Reed and Devante and Wicks, they dropped their receiver error was like tops in the leagues there. They, in the league, and I think they have, you know, this golden could be really good. I think Reed, I'm sorry, Love in his third year is solid. He's, you know, 80% on a quarterback sneak, so he's got that Eagles thing going for him, even though they were the biggest complainers about the tush push. So, um, yeah, I like him a lot. I mean, they played the Lions and then no division games for two months. So they can make some hay a little bit.

• 34:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I liked, I looked at the schedule and I kind of liked how it broke down where they got Lions, Commanders to start, but home. And then going right to at Cleveland, at Dallas. I'm not worried about that. Bye week, I might be 4-0 at the bye week. You mentioned Love. One of the questions for me is can he be a true franchise QB? And people thought it was gonna happen last year and it turns out they were like a year away from being the team this year.

• 34:31Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 34:33Bill Simmons?

  But the LaFleur thing is nuts. Like the Bundo was talking about this. They have a top 10 offense every year.

• 34:38Speaker 04

  Right.

• 34:38Bill Simmons?

  LaFleur is 67 and 33 as a head coach.

• 34:41Speaker 04

  Right, right.

• 34:42Bill Simmons?

  You know, and it doesn't seem to matter.

• 34:45Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 34:45Bill Simmons?

  What kind of injury luck they have. They moved their offensive line around and that Jenkins, who everybody loves, is gonna be the center this year.

• 34:51Speaker 04

  Mm hmm.

• 34:52Bill Simmons?

  But it seems like they're gonna be able to block.

• 34:53Speaker 04

  Jacobs over 1,300 yards. Yeah, they're solid. They're gonna put up points.

• 34:57Bill Simmons?

  Well, it seems like this Golden, they might have hit with this guy. It seems like Agbuka and Golden are both gonna be really good.

• 35:03Speaker 04

  Super quick, dude. Yeah.

• 35:04Bill Simmons?

  So, one question, and they have an excellent coaching staff. One question I had with them.

• 35:11Bill Simmons?

  Love, 25 to 1 MVP?

• 35:14Speaker 04

  I got it.

• 35:14Bill Simmons?

  Shield did a whole, oh, you have it?

• 35:16Speaker 04

  I got it in our thing.

• 35:16Bill Simmons?

  Shield did a whole MVP tiers and was talking about basically the MVP has to come from a 12, 13, 14 win team.

• 35:23Speaker 04

  No doubt about it.

• 35:24Bill Simmons?

  So if you think Green Bay could be the one seed.

• 35:26Speaker 04

  Hmm.

• 35:27Bill Simmons?

  You have to bet Love 25 to 1.

• 35:29Speaker 04

  I have them at 11 wins, but of course they can get 12. And of course, 25 to 1 is worth it.

• 35:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 35:34Speaker 04

  For that. And also, like, the voters might just be sick of, I don't want to decide who's better, Allen or Mahomes or Jackson. It might go to an NFC guy this year.

• 35:43Bill Simmons?

  No. All right, we're both in on them. I have them at 21 points in my rankings, but there might be some guys that are coming on too, especially from that draft. Minnesota

• 35:57Bill Simmons?

  over is 9.5 as well.

• 36:00Bill Simmons?

  Plus 290 for the division. Even odds for the playoffs. 11 to 1 to be the one seed.

• 36:07Bill Simmons?

  Did I mention the Packers' odds for the one seed? 9 to 1? Okay.

• 36:12Bill Simmons?

  They, uh, if you want to go, I think J.J. McCarthy is going to be a bust. I'd like to offer you under six and a half wins for plus 360. They were 14 and 3 last year, so.

• 36:24Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 36:25Bill Simmons?

  Who has a wider ceiling floor disparity than J.J. McCarthy? This is like a, literally a complete unknown. No idea what to expect.

• 36:34Speaker 04

  So you're of two schools of thought, right? Either, uh, J.J. McCarthy is coming off an injury. He's unproven in big games. He didn't actually play great. He was 10 for 18, 140 against Ohio State.

• 36:45Bill Simmons?

  They tried to trade for Anthony Richardson, that whole draft.

• 36:47Speaker 04

  That whole thing and the Washington game, you know, he wasn't, uh, that's when he was 10 for 18. He was 12 for 24 against Ohio State. Or you're of the school that, well, Sam Darnold won 14 games, so it doesn't really matter who's throwing. I'm, I'm with the former here. I need to see something out of this guy first. I don't think it's, I don't think it's good that, how excited they are that Adam Thielen signed in late August? Like they're frigging throwing parties that Adam Thielen is on that roster.

• 37:13Bill Simmons?

  No Addison for first three games. Thielen they get and it's like, thank God Thielen's here.

• 37:18Speaker 04

  Yeah, of course Jefferson's great, but, um, and that offensive line is solid. But they were nine and one in one score games. And I don't think you could demand the same from a rookie coming out after an injury.

• 37:29Bill Simmons?

  Some of the regression stuff with them. It's, it's almost as classic of a profile as, who's the team we did in the AFC? Oh, uh, oh, the Washington.

• 37:37Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 37:38Bill Simmons?

  That was the other one. They had a crazy turnover luck. They had crazy one score game luck. Schedule was easier. This year, like the way worse at cornerback.

• 37:49Speaker 04

  Mm-hmm.

• 37:49Bill Simmons?

  Um, and I think you're gonna be able to throw on them. And I mentioned that because they're going at Bears, home Falcons, home Bengals for their first three games.

• 37:59Speaker 04

  Right, yeah.

• 37:59Bill Simmons?

  Teams that are gonna be dialing up and throwing on them. Now, the Patriots did a whole week of practices, that exhibition game, and their defense kicked our ass. And I.

• 38:09Speaker 04

  Flores did a good job with that defense, but 33 takeaways, which is what they had. I don't want to say it's lucky, but it's hard to replicate, right? Like everything kinda went right for them for those last two games.

• 38:20Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they hit, last year they hit with that Ben Ginkel signing.

• 38:23Speaker 04

  Right.

• 38:26Bill Simmons?

  But it's weird, when I did my rankings and I really like, when I do those, I really, I look, I read all the list and their defense is great, but it's really because of Flores. It's not like they're like loaded with studs.

• 38:38Speaker 04

  They move parts around.

• 38:40Bill Simmons?

  But uh.

• 38:41Speaker 04

  Yeah, that offensive line, great, Kelly and Freeze and Donovan Jackson, they drafted from Ohio State. You know, they got Hark, Ray, on the defense. I don't know. I just think that's a lot. That nine and one and one score games thing scares me. I have them with seven wins.

• 38:59Speaker 04

  What do you have? You have eight?

• 39:00Bill Simmons?

  Seven wins?

• 39:02Speaker 04

  Seven and 10.

• 39:03Bill Simmons?

  So you have them dropping seven wins?

• 39:07Speaker 04

  Dropping seven wins, yeah. Well, that's what you're doing in Detroit, basically, no?

• 39:10Bill Simmons?

  I have them dropping five, sevens, like, holy shit.

• 39:13Speaker 04

  It's a whole different thing.

• 39:14Bill Simmons?

  So you're out on J.J. Mc, that's it, I'm out on J.J. McGarvey.

• 39:17Speaker 04

  Yeah, I have to be. If I'm gonna give some of these other teams wins, like Green Bay.

• 39:21Bill Simmons?

  I'm under, I have them at nine and eight. By the time we get to next week, it could be eight, nine. Cause just because I think their defense is.

• 39:28Speaker 04

  After the bye, Philly at Chargers, at Detroit, Baltimore. It could be that.

• 39:34Bill Simmons?

  So one of the things, one of the reasons I did that was because I was looking at,

• 39:41Bill Simmons?

  when I did the, um, looking at the biggest, the most wins by division each year.

• 39:45Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 39:47Bill Simmons?

  So last year, the NFC North had the most wins. They had 45 wins. Year before AFC North, 43. Year before that, NFC East, 43. Right? So that's just the last three. So you figure it's gonna be somewhere in that range, 43 to 45. And I think the NFC North is the best division. So I wanted to, to get in that like 43 range. So that's why I gave them nine and eight.

• 40:12Speaker 04

  Who they play, NFC East and AFC North?

• 40:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 40:15Speaker 04

  Yeah, it's tough.

• 40:18Speaker 04

  Not the easiest.

• 40:18Bill Simmons?

  Well, maybe not tough, but um, yeah, so with Minnesota.

• 40:22Speaker 04

  And they're in London a couple of weeks, right?

• 40:25Bill Simmons?

  This, I mean, that, their schedule is really tough.

• 40:29Speaker 04

  Is that hard to win both? Isn't that hard to beat Pittsburgh and Cleveland? And one of those games is gonna be shitty weather.

• 40:34Bill Simmons?

  I was like, has anyone done Dublin, London, back to back? Like, have we ever done two different countries back to back in Europe?

• 40:40Speaker 04

  I don't, I don't think so. I don't think the Jags did that.

• 40:43Bill Simmons?

  You know, we're sending the fantasy football guys to Dublin.

• 40:45Speaker 04

  I heard. You're never gonna see them again.

• 40:47Bill Simmons?

  I think high fits might not come back. It's 50 50. The other town I'm not worried about.

• 40:53Speaker 04

  What do we call the coach that has the, the middle seat?

• 40:57Bill Simmons?

  Middle seat high fits?

• 41:01Bill Simmons?

  This end of the run for the, for uh, God, so they have a bye week and then they go Eagles at Chargers, at Lions, Ravens, Bears, at Packers, at Seahawks, commanders, at Cowboys, at Giants, Lions, Packers. There's like, talk about no room for anything. It's a lot to ask for old JJ. Yeah, nine and eight. I might even go lower than that. Uh, under for them. Man, it feels like we are agreeing too much this podcast.

• 41:28Speaker 04

  No, because what we're um, what else do we have?

• 41:32Bill Simmons?

  We had, it feels like we're.

• 41:33Speaker 04

  I mean, like the Browns and dumb shit.

• 41:35Bill Simmons?

  The Bears. Now I feel like you're gonna be with me in the Bears.

• 41:39Speaker 04

  Well, last year our decision was under eight and a half or no playoffs, right? I mean, they were asking a lot of the rookie to go nine and eight. It's first year.

• 41:48Bill Simmons?

  I was under on the Bears. The Bears ended up five and 12 last year. They had one of the worst coaching situations in the league. The Hail Mary by Daniels literally ruined their season. They were never the same. Um, they're over a seven and a half. Five to one for the division, which I think is enticing. Uh, plus 184 for the playoffs, plus 210, 10 wins.

• 42:14Bill Simmons?

  So can Ben Johnson, can this be Shanahan and McVeigh? Is that what we're signing up for with this? My bet is yes.

• 42:25Speaker 04

  Really?

• 42:25Bill Simmons?

  And that's part of like the Lions thing. I don't think you can say the Lions are fine, but then not also dive in on the Bears.

• 42:35Speaker 04

  Um, I mean, you, or you. Well, you can go one, one can win 11 games.

• 42:38Bill Simmons?

  I screwed that up. You can't say, take two. You can't say the Lions are gonna be fine, but then, but then, uh.

• 42:47Speaker 04

  I think I did say, yeah.

• 42:48Bill Simmons?

  Did I say it fine?

• 42:49Speaker 04

  But the Bears are gonna be bad?

• 42:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 42:50Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 42:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. I think it's one or the other.

• 42:52Speaker 04

  That's what I'm saying. So here's where we disagree.

• 42:56Speaker 04

  We've been doing this for two and a half now.

• 42:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, yeah. Let's see, Luke Rocky. I'm in on Ben Johnson.

• 43:01Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 43:02Bill Simmons?

  Okay. And, and I didn't want to be, and it felt a little Justin Herbert-y and it felt like all these, all the NFL nerds were trying to bully us and talk about how brilliant Ben Johnson is. But I've loved his training camp. I love the tough love stuff with Caleb. I like that Tyson Bajin, he just keeps like, kind of, they gave him an extension. They keep giving him how, how great he is and, uh, I don't know. I just think he's gonna be, he's got a lot of weapons. Got receivers all over the place. They got that, everybody likes that Loveland.

• 43:32Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 43:32Bill Simmons?

  They should be able to block okay.

• 43:34Speaker 04

  They helped them out. They got Tooney and Jonah Jackson, right? Drew Dahlman, you know?

• 43:39Bill Simmons?

  They loaded up. This is a classic rookie quarterback team.

• 43:42Speaker 04

  Two more wide receivers with the first three picks. Caleb Williams might need a little more than Ben Johnson to excel in this division.

• 43:50Bill Simmons?

  So that's, that was my next question. Does Caleb Williams have it?

• 43:55Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 43:56Bill Simmons?

  If, if he doesn't have it, we're gonna know because I, I was trying to think, is anyone, any year two quarterback.

• 44:03Speaker 04

  Loaded up like this?

• 44:04Bill Simmons?

  Been in a better situation since Mahomes.

• 44:06Speaker 04

  I don't, some will say McCarthy, if you want to count him as a, a year two, but no.

• 44:11Bill Simmons?

  This guy's got, like.

• 44:12Speaker 04

  No, this is a better situation.

• 44:13Bill Simmons?

  The next genius offensive head coach.

• 44:15Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 44:16Bill Simmons?

  Weapons everywhere, number one pick receivers and tight ends and DJ Moore and, you know, the running backs aren't that good. They spent money on the line, like they've done everything right and he just has to be good.

• 44:28Speaker 04

  I, I never liked the guys who are sacked 68 times, third most ever. I never liked those guys. I feel like, and maybe you're right about Ben Johnson, maybe it's in two years, but I just don't think Caleb he takes them like, we might see Tyson Bajin and not because of an injury. I'm gonna go that far.

• 44:46Bill Simmons?

  That'd be amazing.

• 44:46Speaker 04

  And I have seven wins. I think they go under. I think the luck factor.

• 44:49Bill Simmons?

  Oh, we don't agree.

• 44:50Speaker 04

  We don't agree. No. They forced 24 turnovers last year, 13 fumble recoveries. That's lucky. 13 fumble.

• 44:56Bill Simmons?

  Dennis Allen.

• 44:57Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 44:58Bill Simmons?

  DC this year.

• 44:59Speaker 04

  Dennis Allen.

• 45:00Bill Simmons?

  Great.

• 45:00Speaker 04

  But they didn't really do much for them. They didn't really sign. The pass rush wasn't good. They go from the third easiest to the seventh hardest schedule now. I'm hitting that on there.

• 45:10Bill Simmons?

  Left tackle might be shaky. Running backs might be shaky. Uh, I'm in.

• 45:15Speaker 04

  All right.

• 45:15Bill Simmons?

  I'm in. I think they go 10 and 7. I'm way over. I have them in the playoffs.

• 45:20Speaker 04

  Okay, let's bet $25,000.

• 45:21Bill Simmons?

  I have three NFC North playoff teams, which our colleague Kay Adams.

• 45:26Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 45:27Bill Simmons?

  That was one of her special bets on Fandel. No, she had it. Right. Kay Adams. Why hasn't she invited you on?

• 45:34Speaker 04

  Uh, maybe she has and I've turned her down a few times.

• 45:39Bill Simmons?

  Go on the Kay Adams show.

• 45:40Speaker 04

  You and Kay Adams agree. Oh, this is something now.

• 45:42Bill Simmons?

  Kay Adams and I agree. I have 12 for Lions, 11 for the Packers and 7 for the Vikings and 7 for the Bears. Some of these schedules are tough. Man, I think you can, I think you whiffed on that. I have 10, 9, 19, uh, 12 for Green Bay. That's 31. I have 41 for this division.

• 46:02Speaker 04

  Holy shit.

• 46:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 46:04Speaker 04

  23, I have 37.

• 46:06Bill Simmons?

  Okay. Um, I'm just glad we were able to do math.

• 46:10Speaker 04

  It might be wrong.

• 46:13Bill Simmons?

  We're gonna take a break and then talk about a division that's not as good, the NFC South. That's next. And now it's time for Great Call, a segment sponsored by Verizon. Before the first whistle blows, the smartest plays are already on the board. These great calls are the backbone of a successful season. And when it comes to winning strategy, you can't beat the value you get at Verizon. They make sure you're always getting the most out of your money. Speaking of great calls, this offseason had a couple of standouts, things I'm looking at as we head into the NFL season. The Bears hiring. Ben Johnson, trying to team him up with a bunch of weapons. I think they're going to be a playoff team. The Raiders taking Ashton Gentry to put him with Brock Bowers.

• 46:54Bill Simmons?

  The Patriots finally getting a left tackle to protect Drake May. And I think best of all, the Giants getting a dual Carter, who I think is going to be the defensive player of the year, and fortifying their front four. Now they have the best defensive line pass rushing wise in the league. So there were some really good calls over the, uh, over the spring. Sometimes that's not always the case. If you're looking to make a great call this season, make it with Verizon. Get a brand new phone with select phone trade in in my plan and lock down a low price for three years on any plan with my plan. This is for everyone, whether you're a new or existing customer. Swing by Verizon today and get the most for your money. Three year price guarantee

• 47:36Bill Simmons?

  applies to then current base monthly rate only. Additional terms and conditions apply for all offers. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes, yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves, and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865, brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association, Member, FDIC.

• 48:22Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun, sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead, but what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully, your team doesn't go to Cancun. One, two, three Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save. Savings vary. Least wins by division last few years. AFC South 25 last year. Year before NFC South 27. Year before that, AFC South 23. Then we had a 28, a 23, and a 24.

• 49:07Bill Simmons?

  This would be my candidate to have the least wins unless you wanted to go AFC South. Yeah, it's, it's one of the Souths is gonna have the least wins. And a lot of it depends on this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. How many wins you think they're gonna get? Or if you think they're even gonna be good.

• 49:22Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 49:23Bill Simmons?

  It's interesting. So their overs nine and a half. Action on the under. Minus 105 for the division, minus 160 for the playoffs. There's really not a lot of value anywhere around here. Werfs looks like their left tackle, who's excellent. Looks like he's coming back like week, maybe even week two range.

• 49:41Speaker 04

  Yeah, that didn't look good like three months ago.

• 49:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so that, that changed a little bit. And then Godwin will be back after a month, but they're fine because they got a, a book in the draft. Who's a stud.

• 49:50Speaker 04

  Love that guy.

• 49:51Bill Simmons?

  So here, here's my take on this. Tell me if you agree. This feels like our slow start, fast finish team this year.

• 49:57Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 49:58Bill Simmons?

  They have no worse for the first couple of weeks. Five of their first eight on the road, plus Philly at home. But then it gets really easy down the stretch. And it feels like, I'm just marking this down. Remind me, remind me in four weeks that we talked about it. We wait a month and bet on Tampa to win the division. Let's, let's let Atlanta take a little lead and then jump on it.

• 50:18Speaker 04

  Yeah, we don't freak out if they lose at Atlanta, week one.

• 50:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's fine. It's fine. They're one and three after four games. Oh, my God, what's like, yeah, that's when we step in.

• 50:26Speaker 04

  I love this team. Am I happy that they cut Shiloh Sanders? No, of course not. They're behind the eight ball there. No, but listen, this is the second year in a row. Bowles has a new OC. He lost Canales and then Liam. So last year, number two score rate, number three points per drive, 16 and one in 10 point teasers. You love that. The secondary was bad. I love it. I do. But they have Vita Vea and Reddick. They got Reddick from the Jets. That could be forced like inside against the run. I just love that offense, right? Bucky Irving, 1,100 plus yards. 41 touchdown passes for Baker. He's a fucking machine. And then, like you said, add Egbo, who could be a generational talent. And what do you go like 19th? So it's gonna be teams like kicking.

• 51:07Bill Simmons?

  It feels like he's gonna be Brian Thomas Jr. For this year.

• 51:10Speaker 04

  Right.

• 51:10Bill Simmons?

  Plus they still have Evans. Plus Bucky Irving was fucking awesome last year.

• 51:14Speaker 04

  Lots of points. They had 152 fourth quarter points. That was the best in the league last year. Like they really, they don't get nervous.

• 51:22Bill Simmons?

  This was the best stat I saw. So. The past 25 years, they have the six best third down conversion rate last year. The other teams that were ahead of them were the 22 Bills, the 2011 Saints, the 06 Colts, the 04 Vikings, and the 01 Rams.

• 51:42Speaker 04

  Right.

• 51:42Bill Simmons?

  Like, they weren't just great on third down. They were like out of their minds. So, people would say, well, Liam Cohen's not there anymore. And yeah, I'm a little worried about that. But they have a lot of weapons and they can block. So, uh,

• 51:57Bill Simmons?

  new OC is named Josh Grizzard.

• 51:59Speaker 04

  Yep. He was their quarterback coach, right?

• 52:02Bill Simmons?

  You know what's interesting? They're still in the running to be the best NFC team of the 2020s.

• 52:08Speaker 04

  Yeah, it's true.

• 52:08Bill Simmons?

  51 and 33, 6 and 4 in the playoffs, four straight division titles, and they won a Super Bowl. So it's them or the Eagles right now.

• 52:16Speaker 04

  Interesting.

• 52:17Bill Simmons?

  Kind of battling back and forth for that, but.

• 52:19Speaker 04

  Well, I got news for you.

• 52:20Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 52:20Speaker 04

  Should I say this now?

• 52:21Bill Simmons?

  Yep.

• 52:22Speaker 04

  I know you don't like Santa Clara. Maybe you're not a big fan. I don't know if you want that over the airwaves. But the Buccaneers are going there in February.

• 52:31Bill Simmons?

  This is, oh, so I, I did a Buffalo. You're going Tampa.

• 52:34Speaker 04

  Let's go. They're meeting each other. 12 and 5. Repeat as NFC South.

• 52:38Bill Simmons?

  Buffalo versus Tampa.

• 52:39Speaker 04

  That's what I have.

• 52:41Bill Simmons?

  I have Buffalo versus Green Bay.

• 52:43Speaker 04

  That could be good, too. We'll bet them both. 12 and 5. Classic garbage division.

• 52:50Bill Simmons?

  I like it. I, I went over, obviously, and I, and I know you did too. I don't know if it's 10 and 7 or 11 and 6. It's somewhere in there.

• 52:59Speaker 04

  You went over that ending. I mean, that could be some run.

• 53:02Bill Simmons?

  Right. But, you know, at Falcons, at Texans, first two weeks, they might start at 0 and 2, and then Eagles, at Seahawks.

• 53:09Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 53:10Bill Simmons?

  They could, they could literally be 2 and 5 after seven weeks and still win the division.

• 53:14Speaker 04

  Right.

• 53:16Bill Simmons?

  I had them with 26 points in my roster rankings. So right in, right in the cusp of Chiefs and some of those other teams. Top four offensive line in the league. Four chippers on defense, including David and Winfield, who were like, hi, chippers. Mayfield's just good. I mean, that's it. We, let's all give up. He's somewhere between like the eighth and 13th best quarterback in the league.

• 53:43Speaker 04

  I think he tied for the league lead in interceptions. He had 16, but when you're 41 touchdown passes. You're all right.

• 53:51Bill Simmons?

  Atlanta.

• 53:53Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 53:54Bill Simmons?

  Seven and a half is the over under for them. Plus 220 for the division. So there's some value there because if you don't think Tampa is going to have something bad happen. Uh, plus 142 for the playoffs. They were eight and nine last year. My two questions. What if Penix isn't good? And what if Penix isn't good? Same question.

• 54:19Speaker 04

  Wait a minute. All right. Let me answer the first, second one first.

• 54:21Bill Simmons?

  You can answer either. Um, what if he's not good?

• 54:24Speaker 04

  Then they'll be in a little bit of trouble, right? I mean, he's not as accurate as Cousins, but there are some things to like about him for sure.

• 54:30Bill Simmons?

  Because if he, if they're going to be a playoff team.

• 54:33Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 54:33Bill Simmons?

  He's going to have to be like, good. Like, cause they're going to have to, I don't think their defense is going to be very good. And they spent two first round picks, including one they traded next year.

• 54:43Speaker 04

  Right.

• 54:43Bill Simmons?

  To beef up their pass rush they signed. You know, they, they spent a lot of money trying to have a pass rush.

• 54:48Speaker 04

  I wish their coaching was a little better, right? Raheem Morris and the year before Arthur Smith, they, they lost a lot of games down the stretch. They lost six of the last eight games and 24 and four of the last five and 23. So that's what bugs me about this team. The other thing that bugs me is, I was going to do a thing on Ringer gambling channel. I was going to send a, to camera video of how to explain to your wife, her fantasy team sucks. She went out with her friends and drafted Kyle Pitts. Fuck.

• 55:15Bill Simmons?

  Your wife did?

• 55:15Speaker 04

  Early.

• 55:16Bill Simmons?

  That's like divorce level.

• 55:18Speaker 04

  I know, like, I didn't even want to talk to her. And I was like, hey, I crossed off a lot of names. He was definitely, I was like, oh, maybe I wasn't paying attention. Like, not paying attention.

• 55:26Bill Simmons?

  Oh, my God.

• 55:26Speaker 04

  This Kyle Pitts, this is his year thing is like.

• 55:29Bill Simmons?

  He didn't get drafted in our ring.

• 55:30Speaker 04

  They didn't.

• 55:31Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 55:31Speaker 04

  The 200 whatever picks? Yeah. I mean, this is Lucy pulling the ball from Charlie Brown. She's not gonna kick it.

• 55:37Bill Simmons?

  They signed Leonard Floyd and they took Jalen Walker 15th and James Pierce Jr. 26th. And Pierce Jr. Was supposed to be like heading into last college season like a top five pick.

• 55:47Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 55:48Bill Simmons?

  But then you read the, I went on the Falcons Reddit.

• 55:52Speaker 04

  Mm hmm.

• 55:52Bill Simmons?

  I went on the, I Googled their pass rush and it, like, people, I guess they didn't have that great of a preseason.

• 55:59Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 55:59Bill Simmons?

  They weren't like, oh, my God, we're loaded. These guys are crazy. Like, it wasn't like that at all.

• 56:04Speaker 04

  They're doing the Howie Roseman SEC, big body guys thing, superstars, so.

• 56:09Bill Simmons?

  Bad at cornerback. Run defense is gonna be terrible. Grady Jarrett's finally gone. But then the big thing that like cemented the under for me because I'm going under seven and a half. They lose their right tackle Caleb McGarry on Friday.

• 56:22Speaker 04

  I saw that, yeah.

• 56:23Bill Simmons?

  And they had this offensive line that was good. It was definitely like, wasn't a top four offensive line, but it was probably top 10.

• 56:29Speaker 04

  Right.

• 56:29Bill Simmons?

  But he's the right tackle. It's the Penix blindside spot. And I was like, I'm out. I'm out, I'm under. That's it.

• 56:35Speaker 04

  Right, that's.

• 56:36Bill Simmons?

  I was on the fence and now I'm out.

• 56:37Speaker 04

  Hmm. I saw it. First of all, we learned how to, it's B. Sean, not Bijon. We learned this summer, so I don't know if that changes your.

• 56:46Bill Simmons?

  Did he announce that?

• 56:47Speaker 04

  Yeah, he did. He did interviews and said that.

• 56:49Bill Simmons?

  Bijon?

• 56:50Speaker 04

  I'm surprised here, but I think that division is so bad that they could go five and one. So I think they're gonna get 10 overall. 10 and 7. I'm going over, look at you.

• 57:00Bill Simmons?

  What?

• 57:01Speaker 04

  Yeah. It's five.

• 57:03Bill Simmons?

  That's Sal.

• 57:03Speaker 04

  Don't worry about it.

• 57:04Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna beat you again.

• 57:05Speaker 04

  Home against Washington, they win that. Home against Tampa, we like that. Home against Miami. Uh, home against Indianapolis.

• 57:12Bill Simmons?

  Four good guys.

• 57:13Speaker 04

  Carolina, at the Jets, home against Seattle. They can win these games.

• 57:19Speaker 04

  10 some, under.

• 57:22Bill Simmons?

  One thing I wanted to mention, this is an all in team where they're not even good.

• 57:28Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 57:28Bill Simmons?

  Like they spent all that money on Cousins. They traded next year's first round pick and it's like,

• 57:33Speaker 04

  Not smart.

• 57:34Bill Simmons?

  Cool. So we have no cap space and we have a first round pick next year. So that, that might help your over.

• 57:39Speaker 04

  This is the division to do it in.

• 57:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they're not going to tank.

• 57:42Speaker 04

  Right.

• 57:44Bill Simmons?

  They play the, the NFC South plays the AFC East and the NFC West, which I forgot to mention. They had the second place schedules. They play Indy, Washington and Minnesota.

• 57:52Speaker 04

  I don't like any of those teams.

• 57:54Bill Simmons?

  Look, if Penix is awesome, sure.

• 57:56Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 57:56Bill Simmons?

  But, uh, I don't know. I was looking at the most interceptions for him, for our futures draft.

• 58:03Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 58:03Bill Simmons?

  Cause he had 11 as, in his last year in college, which led college.

• 58:07Speaker 04

  Right, right, right. Well, that's good.

• 58:10Bill Simmons?

  Carolina, six and a half is the number.

• 58:15Bill Simmons?

  There's been some action on the over, minus 130. They are plus 240 to finish second, plus 410 for the division, plus 250 for the playoffs. And there's been some, but this is another one of those. I'm trying to talk myself into them being a sleeper team.

• 58:30Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 58:31Bill Simmons?

  They're another one. They, they, they're going to have the worst defense in the league.

• 58:34Speaker 04

  That's it. That's what I have written down. You could blame Cam Young or you can blame Young and Bryce, Bryce Young and Dalton, but most points in NFL history they allowed, 31.4 rushing yards.

• 58:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, there were some crazy stats with them. Didn't they give up like 3,000 rushing yards or something crazy?

• 58:50Speaker 04

  404 yards per game. Yeah. Yeah. That's what it was. So they get Maurey from the Raiders and J.C. Horn in free agency, but their second round pick are from the A and M, the edge already has a collapsed lung. So I don't, I don't know. And, and he's.

• 59:05Bill Simmons?

  They got Derrick Brown back. So people are like, well, they got him back.

• 59:08Speaker 04

  We want him to be good, Bryce, but you know, he's like dead in most categories. Like before that week three benching, he was like pretty much last. And then he had some, you know, he won four of his last 10 and three of them were in overtime. So what do you make of this team? They don't have to. I think Canales has a ways to go here.

• 59:25Bill Simmons?

  I think the over is too high. I have no idea if Canales is a good coach.

• 59:30Bill Simmons?

  Terrible secondary, easier schedule.

• 59:34Bill Simmons?

  Look, they traded Thielen, which I find hard to believe. Like, he couldn't have helped them. That tells me that they're punting on the season.

• 59:41Speaker 04

  Right.

• 59:41Bill Simmons?

  You trade that guy right before the season starts and you get like a fifth round pick?

• 59:45Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 59:46Bill Simmons?

  So I don't know. That was suspicious to me.

• 59:48Speaker 04

  Yeah, they're already tanking. Ted McMillan could be fun, but we'll see.

• 59:51Bill Simmons?

  There's some positive schedule stuff with them.

• 59:54Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 59:55Bill Simmons?

  But I couldn't get there. We'll see. The offensive line is that they, you know, there's gonna be a couple of games where they run the ball and Bryce does a couple of things. Wow, the Panthers, they're up at halftime.

• 1:00:05Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:00:06Bill Simmons?

  Upset making here in Philly. Like, there'd be a couple of those.

• 1:00:09Speaker 04

  Yeah, like I said, they were fun against the Chiefs last year. They had some games.

• 1:00:13Bill Simmons?

  Well, they're not gonna be worse than this team. I'm going under for the Panthers.

• 1:00:17Speaker 04

  Six wins for me.

• 1:00:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so that's under.

• 1:00:19Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:00:21Bill Simmons?

  New Orleans, four and a half.

• 1:00:25Bill Simmons?

  Fourth place, minus 130. Eight, plus 880 to make the playoffs, which is the worst number than the Browns. You can go under three and a half wins for plus 230. You can go under two and a half wins for plus 480. They were five and 12 last year. They changed their coach. They tried to change their quarterback, which is one of the reasons I'm going under. They spent a second round pick on Tyler Shuck.

• 1:00:49Speaker 04

  Right.

• 1:00:49Bill Simmons?

  And he doesn't even win the job, even though he's like 25.

• 1:00:52Speaker 04

  Right.

• 1:00:52Bill Simmons?

  So, congrats on that, guys. I guess their offensive line's a little better with Banks.

• 1:00:58Speaker 04

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:00:58Bill Simmons?

  And they're better because they don't have Dennis Allen. Other than that, I don't see, I, this is in the running for worst team for me.

• 1:01:05Speaker 04

  Has there ever been a less scary trio than Rattler, Shuck, and Hayner? Like, this is like a

• 1:01:11Bill Simmons?

  It's like a law firm.

• 1:01:12Speaker 04

  A toddler coming at you with a bag of cotton balls. Like, what, why are we supposed to be afraid of this? And the center is out now. I mean, this is a mess for Kellen Moore and Brandon Staley on the defensive end. But, you know, I don't know why we even talk about Carr leaving, but he was actually not awful. They scored 90 points in the first two weeks, but you're right. Like, this is

• 1:01:32Bill Simmons?

  I think they led the BS podcast

• 1:01:34Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:01:34Bill Simmons?

  That Sunday night after the second week where we were like, is this the 2000 Rams?

• 1:01:38Speaker 04

  Yeah, and Shuck is bad against pressure and blitz like he was in college. I know he has Kubiak. Everyone's excited for that, but their schedule is pretty easy. Only played three playoff teams from last year, Bucks, Rams, and Bills. I think they're four and 13. I think they're one of, if not the worst team.

• 1:01:55Bill Simmons?

  In my point system? They ended up with a one. Minus two a quarterback. Kamara got a point. Young got a point and Davis got a point and they had nothing else.

• 1:02:07Speaker 04

  Awesome.

• 1:02:08Bill Simmons?

  One point total.

• 1:02:09Speaker 04

  Good job Saints.

• 1:02:09Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so that's really bad.

• 1:02:12Speaker 04

  They have Chase Young. I guess that'll help a little bit.

• 1:02:16Bill Simmons?

  Is this a worst record in the league, Bet for you?

• 1:02:18Speaker 04

  Yeah, I think so. I mean, I.

• 1:02:19Bill Simmons?

  Would you go them or the Browns?

• 1:02:21Speaker 04

  I didn't get, I might do both.

• 1:02:23Bill Simmons?

  Do we have those odds yet?

• 1:02:24Speaker 04

  The problem with the South is, oh, I don't think I saw.

• 1:02:26Bill Simmons?

  I didn't see those odds.

• 1:02:27Speaker 04

  Can I tell you a hilarious?

• 1:02:29Bill Simmons?

  FanDuel's been like way more positive. Like they don't have first coach fired. I don't see a worse record for them.

• 1:02:35Speaker 04

  Right. Yeah, what are you doing? Stop being such a nice guy. This is a great stat. So every team on FanDuel has, will they score a touchdown every game of the year?

• 1:02:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:02:44Speaker 04

  And so like, the good teams are all like even, like, like the Ravens are like minus 140 and actually the Lions are minus 240. The Saints are plus 550, plus 550 to score every game. Every other team is even or minus or something. They're in trouble.

• 1:03:00Bill Simmons?

  Are they going to be favored in a single game?

• 1:03:02Speaker 04

  I thought they might be.

• 1:03:04Bill Simmons?

  Possibly, not the first two.

• 1:03:06Speaker 04

  Not home against the Giants, probably not. I don't think.

• 1:03:09Bill Simmons?

  Bucks, no. Falcons, no.

• 1:03:12Speaker 04

  Home against Carolina.

• 1:03:13Bill Simmons?

  Panthers, maybe. Jets, maybe. Week 15, 16, maybe?

• 1:03:17Speaker 04

  Maybe.

• 1:03:17Bill Simmons?

  I mean, they'll have the one game where Kamara has like 230 yards and goes nuts.

• 1:03:23Speaker 04

  Well, that's the problem with this division. Like you could, you could saddle a team with two wins for the season, but they could go two and four in the division because it's so bad, right?

• 1:03:32Bill Simmons?

  It would be funny if Trump, instead of declaring war on the weird shitty declares war on, was just like, gotta, gotta burn us out about the NFC South. It's like, I've had it.

• 1:03:43Speaker 04

  That's it.

• 1:03:44Bill Simmons?

  We've got to improve this. I have to send troops down to fuck with the NFC South.

• 1:03:49Speaker 04

  They're relegated?

• 1:03:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Well, we gotta get rid of this entire division.

• 1:03:53Speaker 04

  Right.

• 1:03:53Bill Simmons?

  It's terrible. It's bad football. It's bad.

• 1:03:55Speaker 04

  We're bringing the SEC in to take their place?

• 1:03:58Bill Simmons?

  All right, we'll take a break and then we're going to NFC West. This episode is brought to you by Workday. Guessing is for game shows, not your business, especially when your margin for error is zero. Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance and IT, with a deep understanding of your organization's context and guardrails. So every AI action is permission aware, giving you accuracy 24/7 and the ability to not just get work done, but get it done right. It's a new Workday. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you.

• 1:04:40Bill Simmons?

  So they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. NFC West is up. Most wins by division.

• 1:04:53Bill Simmons?

  As I mentioned earlier, NFC North was 45 wins last year. Could this be a candidate for you to have the most wins this year?

• 1:05:00Speaker 04

  No.

• 1:05:01Bill Simmons?

  NFC West, no?

• 1:05:02Speaker 04

  No.

• 1:05:04Speaker 04

  No.

• 1:05:04Bill Simmons?

  All right. Glad we covered that. San Francisco is our first team over 10 and a half. Football fans get amnesia every August. They forget what happened the season before. They punted on the fact that San Francisco was 6-11 last year. Made a bunch of excuses for them. Meanwhile, they lost like 10 starters or close to be starters. And it's a pretty top-heavy team. I, I thought this stat was incredible. San Francisco, for the past 22 years,

• 1:05:37Bill Simmons?

  they've either made the NFC title game.

• 1:05:39Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:05:40Bill Simmons?

  Or missed the playoffs with no in-between.

• 1:05:42Speaker 04

  Right.

• 1:05:43Bill Simmons?

  22 years, going back to 2003. What the hell is that?

• 1:05:46Speaker 04

  That's good. I would take that.

• 1:05:48Bill Simmons?

  How is that possible?

• 1:05:48Speaker 04

  I'd take that in a heartbeat. That's great.

• 1:05:51Bill Simmons?

  I have them.

• 1:05:55Bill Simmons?

  Division plus 155, conference 9-1, playoffs minus 200. It's been rising nonstop. I'm under.

• 1:06:04Speaker 04

  Yeah, when we did the, when we did the over/under guessing the win total, I don't know, what did we do? Is that what we did? We did this in March, right?

• 1:06:11Bill Simmons?

  We kinda did, yeah, we did like, when the first things came out, what jumped out to us? It's like gut reactions.

• 1:06:15Speaker 04

  This is, I got off the Zoom, this is the last one we did. I got off the Zoom, I had to go for a walk. I was like, do I know anything about fucking football? This is crazy. How are they favored to win the division, let alone, what is it? Nine and a half, 10?

• 1:06:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, 10 and a half.

• 1:06:28Speaker 04

  10 and a half. And yet, oh, I took this time and I was like, damn it, they tanked for a goddamn easy schedule. They fricking did it. They did it. So, all you really have to trust is, and this is a lot, like, if Trent Williams and Purdy aren't playing in the same game, you're kinda in trouble. Like, they're so top-heavy, right? Their money's in Purdy, Warner, Kittle, Bosa, Ayuk, you know? So, those guys, there's $113 million right there. Um, I'm gonna go 10 and 7. I can't believe how easy this schedule is. They were the most injured team last year, and it goes as far, I should say, CMC is also obviously in that equation with Purdy and, uh, and Williams. So, I don't know, I'm going 10 and 7.

• 1:07:09Bill Simmons?

  I went 10 and 7 as well, so that means we're both under. They had six 2024 wins. They beat the Jets, the Pats, Seattle, Dallas, Tampa, and Chicago. And the Seattle win was on a Thursday night. Tampa win was without Evans, Godwin, or McMillan. They had some awful, awful, awful coaching and special team stuff that's now been forgotten by history. They had the best DVOA of an 11-loss team since 1978. Um, so that would indicate, maybe this would be a little better, but they're, you know, they had to pay Purdy.

• 1:07:41Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 1:07:41Bill Simmons?

  They ruined all their depth of good players. They have this kind of, you know, studs and scraps team.

• 1:07:50Bill Simmons?

  Ayuk's not coming back probably till October?

• 1:07:52Speaker 04

  Yeah, they got a while.

• 1:07:53Bill Simmons?

  So they look like they're they're scrounging for receivers. McCaffrey is allegedly healthy now. We'll see where he looks like in six weeks. D-line situation's bad. They drafted Michael Williams. Is it Michael? Or is it Mikel?

• 1:08:06Speaker 04

  Is it Mikel? I think it's Mikel.

• 1:08:07Bill Simmons?

  Mikel Williams?

• 1:08:09Speaker 04

  Yeah, Mikel. Yep. The edge from Georgia. Yeah. So he's opposite.

• 1:08:12Bill Simmons?

  Bad preseason.

• 1:08:13Speaker 04

  Yeah, right.

• 1:08:14Bill Simmons?

  They thought they were getting more from him.

• 1:08:18Bill Simmons?

  And yet the schedule's so awful, I don't know how they don't win 10 games.

• 1:08:22Speaker 04

  I know.

• 1:08:22Bill Simmons?

  So this, so basically what we're predicting is this will be the first time they make the playoffs.

• 1:08:29Speaker 04

  But don't win, go to the title game?

• 1:08:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:08:32Speaker 04

  Yeah. They lost Hargrave, they lose Floyd, Malik Collins, but they get Robert Sala.

• 1:08:38Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I screwed up. I have them going eight and nine.

• 1:08:41Speaker 04

  All right.

• 1:08:44Bill Simmons?

  I forgot that I changed this. Yeah, I went with some other teams in this division.

• 1:08:47Speaker 04

  Okay.

• 1:08:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I can do it. Even with the schedule, I can do it.

• 1:08:50Speaker 04

  You sure you want to look at it again?

• 1:08:52Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 1:08:54Bill Simmons?

  We're getting groggy.

• 1:08:56Bill Simmons?

  I went eight and nine for them and even though the schedule, I just couldn't get there with the rest.

• 1:09:01Speaker 04

  Four games versus teams with a winning record, plus nine net rest, Robert Sala back. I think that's good. I know we made fun of them. Sometimes these guys are defensive coordinators and that's that's what they do.

• 1:09:11Bill Simmons?

  They have two decent guys in their defense and they're both really good, Bosa and Warner.

• 1:09:15Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:09:15Bill Simmons?

  They have no injury flexibility whatsoever.

• 1:09:18Speaker 04

  Right. That's what you have to believe.

• 1:09:20Bill Simmons?

  Kiddo, McCaffrey, Purdy, Bosa, Warner. It's five stars in an above average offensive line.

• 1:09:26Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:09:26Bill Simmons?

  And Shanahan. And I just think there are better teams in the division.

• 1:09:29Speaker 04

  Going into the schedule, I was like, I'm gonna hammer this team. I like I'm under, I'm sticking to our our guns and the March podcast. And then I saw the schedule. I'm like, shit, they're gonna they're gonna beat Jacksonville, they're gonna beat Atlanta, they're gonna beat Carolina, they're gonna beat Tennessee and Indianapolis.

• 1:09:47Speaker 04

  10 wins.

• 1:09:50Bill Simmons?

  I have, we're both under anyway. Rams overs nine and a half, divisions plus 200. Second place is plus 220. Playoffs minus 144.

• 1:10:03Bill Simmons?

  Two questions. Can Matthew Stafford hold up? And but seriously, can Matthew Stafford hold up? Are my two questions for this one?

• 1:10:10Speaker 04

  I'll take the second one.

• 1:10:13Bill Simmons?

  What do you got?

• 1:10:13Speaker 04

  I've been embarrassed by the Rams over the years, right? Like I said, they were gonna have the season from hell two years ago. When Stafford had spine problems, friggin spine 32 at the time, it's fine. And then they made the playoffs. And I'm fading them again. I think they were lucky to be in a division where the 49ers were bad. I don't think that's gonna happen. I like Arizona to be resilient. They had a lot of offensive line injuries. The thing that's it's tough about, aside from McVay being the coach, they always have a third-rounder that comes out out of nowhere and becomes on his way to being the best in the game. So that might be Josiah Stewart, the edge from Michigan.

• 1:10:52Speaker 04

  I don't know. You never want to stick a guy with McVay with six wins, but he's made the playoffs five in the last seven years. That's what I'm doing. I think eventually it's gonna be Jimmy G or Stetson Bennett, and those guys aren't gonna get it done.

• 1:11:04Bill Simmons?

  They upgraded to Devonte Adams from Cup.

• 1:11:07Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 1:11:08Bill Simmons?

  Seems like an upgrade. They had this Alaric Johnson left tackle situation with the blood clots, but they think he's gonna be ready to play. Linebackers aren't great. Defensive back might be shaky. They're 20th in defensive DVOA last year. There's a lot of reasons not to like them. I just think they have a lot of good players. Like when I was doing my rankings, I had them at 22.

• 1:11:29Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:11:30Bill Simmons?

  The schedule's pretty easy. I trust McVay. And honestly, with Garoppolo, we've seen McVay rejuvenate different guys. So we've had a rejuvenated quarterback every year for the last couple. We had Baker, we had Geno Smith. Last year, we had Darnold.

• 1:11:47Speaker 04

  I think that's.

• 1:11:47Bill Simmons?

  And I wonder if Garoppolo is the rejuvenated guy this year.

• 1:11:50Speaker 04

  I don't know. I don't know.

• 1:11:51Bill Simmons?

  So best case scenario, Stafford is okay with the back.

• 1:11:55Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 1:11:55Bill Simmons?

  But I don't know, maybe he rejuvenates Jimmy G. I just.

• 1:11:58Speaker 04

  I hate. Betting against it. This is probably, I'm gonna regret this the most, but that's where I had them.

• 1:12:03Bill Simmons?

  So this goes back to the conundrums we have during the futures. You have the Rams, you have the Niners, and I think you have to pick one of those. I don't think they both make it again because you also have the three and three out rule. Both those teams, or one of those teams made the playoffs last year.

• 1:12:17Speaker 04

  Right. They had 10 wins last year, so if they go back two.

• 1:12:22Bill Simmons?

  Over.

• 1:12:23Speaker 04

  You're out of it. You're going over.

• 1:12:26Bill Simmons?

  Going, uh, yeah, nine and a half. I'm going over. 10 wins.

• 1:12:30Speaker 04

  I'm way under. I think I have seven.

• 1:12:32Bill Simmons?

  Arizona's eight and a half.

• 1:12:38Bill Simmons?

  This is everyone's hipster team. Shield did a thing on his podcast about this.

• 1:12:42Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:12:43Bill Simmons?

  That this is the, uh, everybody loves how they're coached and there's good defensive and offensive metrics with them. And people just like this team. I don't really get it because I did all my talent ranking stuff and I was, I just didn't. I had Connor, Harrison, McBride, Sweat and Baker as the only guys who you would even give a chip designation. I only had them six points total. Uh, I have some real concerns about Kyler Murray. Is that cool? Considering he's 36 and 54, or 45.

• 1:13:12Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:13:13Bill Simmons?

  And, uh, I just like the other teams in the division more. I don't really understand the case.

• 1:13:19Speaker 04

  You're gonna hate me.

• 1:13:20Bill Simmons?

  You're gonna pick them to win the division. God damn it.

• 1:13:23Speaker 04

  11 and 6. I think Gannon has a shot at coach of the year. Even the Cards, the uncut Cards are laughing at me right now. They got the offensive line coming back.

• 1:13:31Bill Simmons?

  Swing team, huh?

• 1:13:31Speaker 04

  I know he has to be better in the fourth quarter and closing out games and down the stretch and all that. But, you know, they opened at New Orleans, Carolina, at San Francisco, Tennessee and at Indy is in there. You know, they could be like five and one or four and one and they're like, whoa, watch out for this team. And then once they get a little confidence, they could be, all right, they signed Sweat, Tomlinson, Campbell. They drafted Nolan and Birch for a defense. Um, you know.

• 1:13:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, except Nolan's already hurt.

• 1:13:58Speaker 04

  Yeah, I know he's hurt. Yeah. I just, uh, they have Shuck, Bryce, Cam, Richardson. Those are four of the first six weeks. Their special teams is awful like that. They have to fix like dumb shit. They had gave up 30, 31 yards per kickoff return.

• 1:14:11Bill Simmons?

  Don't Kyler Murray plays.

• 1:14:13Speaker 04

  Yeah. So I don't know. I think Marvin Harrison Jr. Could have a better year. Uh, bottom five last three years and injury luck. I think it actually comes together for the Arizona Cardinals, 11 and 6.

• 1:14:25Bill Simmons?

  I can't believe you.

• 1:14:26Speaker 04

  Yep, that's it.

• 1:14:29Bill Simmons?

  I have them at nine and eight.

• 1:14:32Bill Simmons?

  And I really deferring to the schedule stuff, the schedules, we talked about this, this NFC West going against the two Souths is just an absolute godsend for both.

• 1:14:43Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 1:14:43Bill Simmons?

  All four of those teams.

• 1:14:46Bill Simmons?

  I like the other team more and I have Seattle winning the division.

• 1:14:49Speaker 04

  You do?

• 1:14:49Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Five to one.

• 1:14:52Speaker 04

  Couldn't figure it out with them.

• 1:14:53Bill Simmons?

  Five to one.

• 1:14:55Speaker 04

  It's pretty good.

• 1:14:55Bill Simmons?

  Plus one sixty-four for the playoffs. They finished ten and seven last year, Sal.

• 1:14:59Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 1:15:00Bill Simmons?

  And here's the crucial thing, because we haven't talked about this yet.

• 1:15:04Bill Simmons?

  This is the nobody believes in us team.

• 1:15:08Bill Simmons?

  Everybody believes in the Cardinals. All the hipsters love them. Everyone's like making cases for them. Who's making cases for the Seahawks? It's just like Pittsburgh last year. I think there's a, first of all, new offensive coordinator, revamped offensive line. Everybody loves that Gray Zabel. They're doing some zone blocking with Kubiak. They have good running backs. Looks like that Tory Horton they might have hit on as a rookie receiver. JSN, I think, is one of the, he's not one of the five best receivers in the league, but he's in the top ten. And then people just see Darnold and they're like, we're out. Oh, sorry. You don't like the guy who went fourteen and three last year?

• 1:15:41Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:15:43Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. Is going for Geno Smith to Darnold, is that a downgrade?

• 1:15:46Speaker 04

  I mean, I'm not, I don't want to crap on him because I have him at nine and eight. So they were ten and seven. So I think they're going to be one game less. I think Mike McDonald got a little bit of a raw deal where he had Geno Smith and he had DK and Tyler Lockett. Now it's like, yeah, you got Sam Darnold and Cooper Cup, but he's, he's pretty good. Yeah. So they were seven and one on the road last year. Probably not happen again. Six and two in one score games. Probably not happen again. Want to go over the quarterbacks they faced? Rookie Bo Nix, rookie Caleb Williams, backup Jacoby Brissette, Skyler Thompson, Tim Boyle, Jimmy G, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray twice. I know I like him this year. Aaron Rodgers.

• 1:16:23Bill Simmons?

  I feel like we lost money in their division bet multiple times.

• 1:16:25Speaker 04

  Yeah, we definitely have. So, you know.

• 1:16:28Bill Simmons?

  Can I throw the schedule back at you? Because everyone says the Niners have the easiest schedule. They play the same AFC South, NFC South combo.

• 1:16:35Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 1:16:36Bill Simmons?

  They played Pittsburgh, Washington and Minnesota as their second place teams. And we don't have any of those teams in the playoffs.

• 1:16:41Speaker 04

  That's why I have them with nine.

• 1:16:44Bill Simmons?

  There's a home, home field advantage that they used to have at least. I really like the coaching staff. I thought McDonald, like people forget, he was the Ben Johnson of last year.

• 1:16:53Speaker 04

  Sure.

• 1:16:53Bill Simmons?

  As this like defensive guru. So I don't know, I just, I think they have enough talent. I had them with four chippers on defense, good special teams. I thought they had another great draft. They've had two good drafts in a row, which is a good sign.

• 1:17:08Speaker 04

  Didn't really spend on offensive line and half of Donald's drop backs are three plus seconds.

• 1:17:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:17:12Speaker 04

  So he's like bottom five when pressured. So that's gotta, that's gotta be.

• 1:17:15Bill Simmons?

  That's the thing. If you go through all four teams in this division, it's the hardest division, you could make a case against all of them.

• 1:17:22Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:17:22Bill Simmons?

  Pretty convincingly.

• 1:17:23Speaker 04

  For sure.

• 1:17:24Bill Simmons?

  And I think this one has the least variance for, I know they can run the ball. I think they could be a top five defense. I think they, they could make some plays with JSN. Donald isn't going to go from being good last year to just awful.

• 1:17:38Speaker 04

  Right.

• 1:17:40Bill Simmons?

  And, uh, and I believe in the team. All right. So for playoff teams, I have Philly, Green Bay, Tampa, and Seattle as the four division winners. And then I have Detroit, Chicago, and the Rams as playoff teams. So the only new teams I have in the NFC are Chicago and Seattle.

• 1:18:00Speaker 04

  Yeah, we're all over the place with you and I. I have the Eagles, Lions, Bucks, Cardinals, Packers, 49ers, Falcons are my wild cards.

• 1:18:10Bill Simmons?

  Falcons. You're gonna regret that one.

• 1:18:11Speaker 04

  Two South teams. What am I doing?

• 1:18:12Bill Simmons?

  Can I, can I put an extra bet on you regretting the Falcons pick?

• 1:18:15Speaker 04

  What am I doing? One of those teams, right? How do I take two South teams?

• 1:18:19Bill Simmons?

  Unbelievable. All right. That's it for the NFC. Thanks to Gao. Thanks to Sir Rudy. We're going to bid adieu for this two-part pod.

• 1:18:29Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:18:29Bill Simmons?

  But we're taping a third part that's going to be the, the futures draft that we did last year. And on Sunday. We're gonna do guest alliance for week one, our 19th year, and then at the end, we're gonna put the futures draft.

• 1:18:41Speaker 04

  Yeah, you don't have to take them through the magic of editing and stuff.

• 1:18:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, yeah. So you're gonna see us on Zoom and then we're gonna be back here like we went backwards.

• 1:18:48Speaker 04

  We'll be wearing different shit, yeah.

• 1:18:49Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. How was this? Good pace for you?

• 1:18:50Speaker 04

  I loved it, yeah.

• 1:18:51Bill Simmons?

  Similarly, less than three hours. Good pace for us.

• 1:18:53Speaker 04

  You know, I gotta stretch my back. I went to the doctor real quick and I gained 10 pounds. And I knew that. I knew that. But then she's like, oh, you gained 10 pounds. I said, listen to me. Last time I saw you, I went crazy losing weight just so that I wouldn't come in the heaviest I've ever... That's not gonna be me anymore. Whatever I am, I'm coming in at. If that affects our friendship, so be it. But it's not what I'm doing anymore. I go to family reunions, everyone looks like me. This is what I'm supposed to be.

• 1:19:19Bill Simmons?

  So do you feel like we had a good handle on this year or no?

• 1:19:21Speaker 04

  I think we did. You don't want to talk about my doctor visits anymore?

• 1:19:24Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm just, um...

• 1:19:25Speaker 04

  I like it. I think there are definitely some teams, like the ones we went over in the West, that I could just be, look foolish the whole year and maybe overrating the NFC South. But what do you think? Predict. Go ahead.

• 1:19:38Bill Simmons?

  20 and 12? I think I'm 19 and 13 this year.

• 1:19:41Speaker 04

  Really?

• 1:19:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, how about you?

• 1:19:42Speaker 04

  What a regression that would be.

• 1:19:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, big regression.

• 1:19:44Speaker 04

  Eight game regression.

• 1:19:45Bill Simmons?

  Me and the last and commanders.

• 1:19:46Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah. Uh, I'll say 6 and 26.

• 1:19:51Bill Simmons?

  Cuz?

• 1:19:52Speaker 04

  Good job by you.

• 1:19:52Bill Simmons?

  Good job by you.

• 1:20:07Bill Simmons?

  Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-897777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 in support in Massachusetts, or call 1-877-8HOPENY, or text HOPENY in New York. This episode is brought to you by Core Power Protein Shakes. You know how we always talk about the little things that separate great athletes? Post-workout recovery is a big factor.

• 1:20:52Bill Simmons?

  Core Power Protein Shakes help you keep going after your workout with high-quality protein to build muscle and electrolytes to help hydrate. It's all you need for your recovery in one bottle. Available in 26 and 42 gram protein options to pick what works best for you. Visit corepower.com to learn more. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, I like those guys, star in the sharp-witted comedy thriller from Academy Award winner Martin McDonagh. Writer-director of The Banshees of Inisherin and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island. Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival.

• 1:21:37Bill Simmons?

  Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys, Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9, only in theaters Friday. Get tickets now.