NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The East | with Zach Lowe and Joe House

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Zach Lowe and Joe House for Part 2 of their 2026-27 NBA Over/Unders pod, as they discuss the win totals for every team in the Eastern Conference. (0:00) Intro (3:24) Knicks (13:48) Celtics (21:26) 76ers (35:48) Raptors (45:06) Nets (56:05) Cavaliers (01:03:30) Pistons (01:12:10) Pacers (01:21:37) Bulls (01:28:35) Bucks (01:37:13) Magic (01:43:20) Heat (01:51:15) Hawks (01:56:19) Hornets (02:03:39) Wizards (02:19:20) Recap Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Zach Lowe and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat, Eduardo Ocampo, and Chris Wohlers Download Uber Eats and order now. http://ubereats.com The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by PayPal. The holiday rush is coming and you can get ahead of it with PayPal. Shop your favorite online stores with PayPal this season like eBay for collectibles, Fanatics for teen gear, Walmart for tech. Check out the flexibility to pay now or pay later and split your payments with Pay in Four with no interest, no late fees. Shop now with PayPal. Paying for subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com slash paying for. PayPal, Inc., NMLS 910457.

• 0:39Bill Simmons?

  This is the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. Make every NFL week more rewarding with FanDuel Rewards Club. You heard me. Just bet like you normally would, earn points in eligible settled bets, win or lose. Keep collecting points, level up and unlock bigger rewards. So keep an eye on your Rewards Club progress and see what you can unlock. This is your most rewarding season ever and it's with FanDuel. 21 plus select states or 18 plus DC or Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat.

• 1:41Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network where we put up part one of this episode, the annual NBA Over Under's podcast. We did the West. Joe House was involved. Zach Lowe, he was involved as well. We took a break. Zach Lowe made chicken for his daughter. I don't know what House did. House just disappeared for a while and came back. I don't even want to speculate.

• 2:01Speaker 01

  Caffeine.

• 2:02Bill Simmons?

  Is that what it was?

• 2:03Speaker 02

  Wardrobe change.

• 2:04Speaker 01

  Stimulants.

• 2:05Bill Simmons?

  So we started with the West with part one, which I was way less excited about than the East. The East includes the Boston Celtics, my favorite team, the New York Knicks, the Champions of the world, Joe House's Wizards.

• 2:18Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:19Bill Simmons?

  Perennially, when we do this, they're always the last team.

• 2:22Speaker 01

  God damn it.

• 2:22Bill Simmons?

  In the over unders because they always have the worst over under and they're stupid wherever the division is.

• 2:27Speaker 01

  Southeast, flags fly forever.

• 2:29Bill Simmons?

  We're gonna start with the champs, the Knicks. Over under is 51 and a half on FanDuel. Division plus 180, conference plus 270, title 10 to 1. One seed plus 360.

• 2:42Speaker 01

  Can wait, can I, can I stop you for one second?

• 2:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:45Speaker 01

  I just want to get comfortable. It's a little, still a little warm in here. I just want to make sure that, that I'm ready for the, I mean, I want to settle in for the East. We're going to be here for a while. Let me get comfortable just for one second.

• 2:54Bill Simmons?

  Oh, boy. Oh, boy.

• 2:59Speaker 02

  Keep it PG 13 here, please.

• 3:04Bill Simmons?

  Oh, oh, my God.

• 3:09Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 3:10Bill Simmons?

  Wow.

• 3:10Speaker 01

  I mean.

• 3:12Bill Simmons?

  I thought you were gonna break out the eat a fat big dick, eat a big fat dick.

• 3:15Speaker 01

  They haven't said that to me yet. They haven't said it to me. I'm waiting on that one.

• 3:18Bill Simmons?

  I was so excited. I thought you had a sweatshirt on.

• 3:20Speaker 01

  If we're gonna do, if we're gonna do the East.

• 3:22Speaker 02

  A Trey Young t-shirt jersey?

• 3:24Speaker 01

  That's coming. I have that too.

• 3:26Bill Simmons?

  Listen, I was on a JetBlue flight on Saturday watching Celtics Sixers preseason. Pretty sure I was the only one on the plane with that one dialed up.

• 3:34Speaker 01

  Which one?

• 3:35Bill Simmons?

  The Celtics Sixers preseason game on Saturday.

• 3:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 3:39Bill Simmons?

  Multiple moments where I was like, man, Paul George just looks great.

• 3:44Bill Simmons?

  He's moving so well.

• 3:46Speaker 02

  Hugo, four for four from three, baby.

• 3:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Thank God we traded Hugo. Then Tatum's out there with Paul George together and I'm just like, man, look at those two, how well they're moving together. All right, the Knicks.

• 3:58Speaker 01

  Let's do it.

• 3:59Bill Simmons?

  51 and a half. Last year, they were 53 and 29 and went 16 and three in the playoffs. Last three years, they're 53, 51 and 50. Before I get to the big question, the year after the life-changing title for a fan base, which doesn't happen very often. 2005 Red Sox lost the ALDS. 2017 Cubs lost the NLCS. 2017 Cavs lost in five in the finals and should have lost in four, but game four is still one of the most suspiciously officiated games of this, of this century. And then the 1995 Rangers lost in round two, there was a lockout. So that's recent history of life-changing titles. Usually the team doesn't win again. First team champs Zach Lowe, go one of three ways.

• 4:44Bill Simmons?

  They jump a level and become scarier. That was the 91 Bulls. They, the title took so much out of them, they're a little more banged up the next year. I think that might be like the 2009 Celtics. Or they had the disease of more. Everyone sacrificed for the title. Guys put their egos aside. A selflessness permeated the group. Everyone elevated each other, gave up stats, gave up numbers, gave up things. And then the next year happens and everybody goes, what about me? What about my minutes? What about my shots? What about my extension? If you had to guess one of those three things for the Knicks, what would you guess, Zach Lowe?

• 5:27Speaker 02

  I'm going D, none of the above. They're just gonna be just fine. Like close, I guess the closest would be one where they go up a level, but I don't really see them going up a level and they can't go up a level from what they did in the playoffs. But I don't think, despite all the extension stuff, I think all those guys are pros. I think they'll be fine and they'll play professionally. And I don't see any, I don't remember what scenario number two was, the hangover, they get worse, whatever.

• 5:52Bill Simmons?

  A little more banged up. Like it took a lot out of them physically.

• 5:56Speaker 02

  Oh, that was, I mean, they, they got out of the playoffs pretty unscathed. They didn't have to play that many games. A lot of their games were blowouts. Like, so I'm gonna go closest to A, but really D, like this team's just gonna be fine.

• 6:08Bill Simmons?

  House?

• 6:08Speaker 01

  I totally agree. I think that, I mean, they're a tiny bit worse and we'll talk about the rosters and so forth, but they're, they're, this is a built for the postseason basketball team. There may yet be a move for them to fortify the front court because I'm not sure how much they're in love with Andre Drummond, but they're fine.

• 6:29Bill Simmons?

  Is he in the fall out of love first team All-Stars? Andre Drummond? Teams have fallen out of love with him a few times.

• 6:36Speaker 02

  Yeah, for sure.

• 6:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 6:38Speaker 02

  I think that's, I think no one, no one loves him anymore. People just tolerate him.

• 6:43Bill Simmons?

  I'm leaning a little toward disease of more, but I want to see how the first couple of months play out. Just a little bit. I think Towns specifically with the extension. And I heard what you said yesterday to Mahoney, Zach, about the, what'd you say? Four years, 200, basically 50 a year?

• 7:01Speaker 02

  That, that's, that's reportedly, I can't confirm that, but that's reportedly the offer. That's fair.

• 7:06Bill Simmons?

  By the way, the reason they traded for Towns was because he made so much money. Minnesota was freaked out by the contract and that was why they were able to, you know, give up what they gave up for him because people thought he was too expensive. He was on our worst contracts list multiple times.

• 7:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, but then he came in to the Knicks situation and was worth the money.

• 7:27Bill Simmons?

  The problem is if they don't finish this before the season, they're in, they're in real, a real issue here because it basically, it carries out and then he has the player option. And there's gonna be teams that have cap space that are pretty excited. Like I'm looking at a team like Charlotte, for example, which I think, I don't know what their cap space situation will be, but they have a lot of expiring stuff. We'll see what the Miller extension is. But there's teams like that that could make a couple of moves and all of a sudden say, yeah, we'll take Karl Anthony Towns for 55 a year for four years. I think he's gonna age pretty well because of his, you know, his game. But I'm watching that one and also, you know, everything went right in the playoffs last year. Brunson became more famous.

• 8:12Bill Simmons?

  There's just in general a bigger spotlight on this team. This team is famous now, which leads to my question, the big question. Is Jalen Brunson, as crazy as this sounds, now the NBA's signature star?

• 8:28Speaker 02

  No, I don't think so. I mean, not in a world where Victor Wembeyama is this 7'6" curiosity who's the most dominant defensive force we've ever seen and he's only 22 or 23 or whatever he is. I don't think so, but he's not, he's not far from it and, and I.

• 8:43Bill Simmons?

  Cause I was thinking the SNL thing, which we've talked about. How many guys realistically could have hosted SNL that are in the NBA right now, other than LeBron and Wemby?

• 8:53Speaker 02

  Curry.

• 8:53Bill Simmons?

  Curry, there's three.

• 8:56Bill Simmons?

  Like, does Luca get that? I don't think he does.

• 8:59Speaker 01

  No. Anthony Edwards will.

• 9:02Bill Simmons?

  He's not famous enough.

• 9:02Speaker 01

  I think it will.

• 9:03Bill Simmons?

  He's not famous enough yet.

• 9:04Speaker 01

  If the Lakers, if the Lakers win the championship, Luca would get that.

• 9:08Bill Simmons?

  I'm just saying right now, like, I don't think Jason Tatum's famous enough. Donovan Mitchell, go on down the line, but Brunson, I just think is massively famous now. And it would struck me like, cause we were always talking about, oh my God, the international guys. Who's going to be the American? Who's going to be face of the league? All that crap. And then in, in a year, it got solved. Jalen Brunson is the most famous American basketball star that we have. I would say he's in the running for most popular because of how big the Knicks fan base is. He's respected, incredibly fun to watch. I think he has at least a couple of good years left. We'll see, you know, small guards, how it aged, but um, it struck me thinking big picture about this league. He's the best clutch guy in the league too. Just big picture like fuck.

• 9:52Bill Simmons?

  Jalen Brunson beyond the title and all that other stuff like he's got the big piece of chicken at the dinner table now.

• 9:58Speaker 01

  Deserves it, deserves it.

• 10:01Bill Simmons?

  What were the odds of that in 2021? I'm going to say like 300 to one, a thousand to one?

• 10:07Speaker 01

  The whole thing is a long shot. Jalen Brunson becoming the top seven player in the NBA. Whatever you think his floor is. I mean, people want to say top five, it's hard to crack the top five. You want to put him in there after what he just did? I can't really argue that much against you. And then hosting, hosting Saturday Night Live, like season premiere of Saturday Night Live.

• 10:26Bill Simmons?

  Unbelievable. Truly, this is like Derek Jeter level famous all of a sudden. We'll see how many years he could stay at this level and we'll see how many years in general for the Knicks. Cause my whole half, half decade rule with contenders, I think this is a three year contender run for them now. Usually means they have two left from changes from last year. They lose Mitchell Robinson, which is not insignificant. Replace them with Drummond. We'll see how that goes. They got Bruce Brown.

• 10:52Bill Simmons?

  I'm a slight under on this 51 and a half, just because of the pattern that this team has had in regular seasons in the past. Of, eh, there's a malaise. Eh, they didn't show up. Oh, they're playing well again. Oh, now they're not. And just being up and down. And I don't think they're going to really care about the regular season either. I don't think they, I don't think they ultimately care if they're one, two, three or four. I think they just want all their guys healthy. They're not going to have the tanking teams this year to beef the record up against. And I think it's somewhere between like 48 and 50 would be where I land on them. So I'm a, I'm a mild and apologetic under because I still think they're the favorites in the East. What do you have, Zach?

• 11:36Speaker 01

  I'm right there with you. Uh, very, very slight and unwilling under. You nailed a lot of the, a lot of the issues, possible championship hangover. Fine. They deserve a championship hangover. And I also, um, you know, the East is really, really strong, top to bottom. They had great health last season and in general, just like, I, I had a hard time with the East because there are so many good teams in the East.

• 12:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 12:01Speaker 01

  And you can't, as I was going over overs and unders and win totals, like I've got a, I had to pick a couple of top tier East teams to go under on, because I think there's just going to be a huge scrunching of all these teams sort of close together. So, you know, just 53 wins last year. I could see 50, 49 on the low end this year. So slight under.

• 12:21Bill Simmons?

  You have 52 games in the East, Taz.

• 12:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 12:24Bill Simmons?

  And you're going to have 44 of those games or 45 or whatever are, are going to be against teams that actually give a shit? And then there's Brooklyn and Milwaukee.

• 12:33Speaker 01

  I do want to point out Knicks were incredible at home last season. 37 and 12 straight up at home, the New York Knicks.

• 12:40Bill Simmons?

  Including playoffs.

• 12:42Speaker 01

  Uh, yes, because they wanted to show everybody, you know, when the, when the fans come to their stadium. Right? This is what, what we're, we're going to give you the treat that you deserve. A lot of those were those comebacks, those giant Knicks comebacks that became the hallmark. And I don't know, just basic regression, I think says that you're not going to have that. I'm an under. Um, I liked this better when it was 52 and a half.

• 13:08Bill Simmons?

  I thought one of us would go over, but.

• 13:10Speaker 01

  Well, they've won 53 last year. That's the right kind of number for them and they got 53 like right at the end of the season. And so I liked this when it was 52 and a half and then I played a 52. That's good, but I'll go ahead and go under. I don't mind. 51 is not disrespectful. I think they win 50 or 51 games.

• 13:25Bill Simmons?

  There's a bullseye thing with them too now where every time they play anyone, it's the most important game of the month for that team. Right? You play, like they play, pick anyone, the Cavs, the Sixers, the Celtics, like, oh shit, we're playing the Knicks. We got to bring it tonight. So I, it's just a lot. And this team, over the course of a regular season, has just been a little too erratic, but that's fine. Because all that matters is the playoffs.

• 13:50Speaker 01

  To, to be clear, because we all went under, I will pick the Knicks to make the finals. So I don't want Knicks fans to be like furious about it. I think they're the best team in the conference, but I'm just going slight under on their regular season win total. They need their guys to be healthy come April and we've seen them, you know, different guys have taken different months off. Regular season wise before, and they have to solve this backup center thing. It's not going to be Andre Drummond as the solution.

• 14:16Bill Simmons?

  I am between them and one other team for the finals and I'm not making the decision until Tuesday, next week. Boston Celtics, over under 51 and a half.

• 14:26Bill Simmons?

  Same as the Knicks. Division plus two, 10, conference five to one, title 14 to one. Last year, they were 56 and 26. And I'll ask this question to House, since he's wearing the T-shirt. What if the Jalen, the Jalen trade turns out to be a home run for the Celtics?

• 14:47Speaker 01

  Well.

• 14:48Bill Simmons?

  What if we're like, holy shit, what a smart trade in like March?

• 14:51Speaker 01

  Leading, leading the witness just to where you want him to go.

• 14:54Bill Simmons?

  It's a what if? It's the, the words start with what if?

• 14:58Speaker 01

  So I don't think that the trade is going to be a home run. What is going to work out for the Celtics is the arrival of Mitchell Robinson. And what impact that has specifically on one player that becomes a version of himself that was disappointing on the offensive end, and that's Derrick White. I think the additional possessions that the Celtics are going to get without really understanding. I mean, I, they acquired Mitchell Robinson, knowing what he's capable of, but like taking those extra possessions and putting them into the Missoula combobulator and letting that sort of, you know, radiate out. It's just going to be, they're going to be an incredible regular season team.

• 15:41Speaker 01

  The question marks I have, the skepticism I have, the reason that I wouldn't endorse the trade is because come playoff time, let's see what this looks like. Let's see what this team looks like. I, I'm not, I'm not convinced that they are better than either the Knicks or the Sixers come playoff time.

• 16:01Bill Simmons?

  I have no notes. I thought you laid it out perfectly. I will say for the regular season, watching them in the preseason, they're deep. Tatum looks great. Paul George, who they really only need 50 games from. And they have these other young guys that they can just kind of move in and out depending on the game. They're very kind of schedule flexible with their lineups. They could be like, oh, tonight's a Ron Harper game. Hey, Hugos is going to play 30 tonight. Ah, we got some Sharman in. And by the way, Sharman looks great. It looks like he added like 10 pounds of muscle. So I think they're looking at, Tatum's basically replacing Brown from last year. And then this George, Hugos, Shireman, a little Ron Harper.

• 16:42Bill Simmons?

  And then more Peyton Pritchard shots. And I just think they can replace all the Jalen offense. So then it comes down to style stuff. And again, it's preseason, but we've all been watching preseason because it seems like people, the, the players and the teams actually care. Cause the preseason is so short. They were getting some really interesting stuff with Paul George as point forward. That um, felt a little different than, and I'm not going to bash Jalen. I love Jalen. But it felt a little different than when Jalen was the point forward. Where it almost felt like Paul George was like a giant point guard running the offense and trying to find stuff. And they just had a lot of size and I thought it was a good use of him. The team chemistry seems great. Everybody seems really happy and I don't think they're going to have minutes issues or anything.

• 17:27Bill Simmons?

  I think they're going to be a really good regular season team. And I don't know what that means for the playoffs, but for regular season, I think they're going to be in the mid 50s, Zach.

• 17:37Speaker 01

  Who says no? Uh, Hugo Gonzalez for Kevin Durant and the Nets pick unprotected, Bill.

• 17:45Bill Simmons?

  What else can I get?

• 17:49Speaker 01

  I thought the over under was 50 and a half, by the way.

• 17:52Bill Simmons?

  It went up. I texted you yesterday.

• 17:55Speaker 01

  Oh, I.

• 17:55Bill Simmons?

  The two over unders that went up or down was Minnesota went down to 46 and a half and Boston went up. Another one. There's been some Boston action.

• 18:02Speaker 01

  I'm still, I'm still taking the over. I took it at 50 and a half. I'll take it at 51 and a half. Regular season wins machine. Little health issues with Paul George and Mitchell Robinson that make me slightly nervous. I don't think it's a no brainer. But I'll take the over.

• 18:17Bill Simmons?

  It's interesting with Mitchell Robinson. Let's say, you know, he's going to go out for six weeks. They do have Garza who, you know, played big minutes for them last year and they won with. You know, I'm not, I'm not saying.

• 18:27Speaker 01

  Regular season.

• 18:28Bill Simmons?

  The greatest for regular season. You can plug him in and it's not, not a disaster. The Mike Conley thing has been interesting. They just love him. I mean, everywhere Mike, it's unclear why Mike Conley just doesn't run for president. Maybe he should run in 2032. Everywhere he goes, people just love him and follow him like the, the Pied Piper. But him and Paul George, like a couple of vets, which is good. They took care of the Pritchard thing with at least an extension for one year. And, you know, you mentioned the Derrick White thing before. I think part of the reason for that is teams, the whole season were basically like, Jalen, go nuts. We're going to guard you one on one.

• 19:07Bill Simmons?

  And we're going to stay with the other shooters and if you beat us, you beat us. And he, to his credit, was awesome and did it. But I don't think White had the same kind of shots that he's going to get this year. And I think he's actually going to go up. You don't agree with that?

• 19:22Speaker 01

  It's already happening. Like it starts, phase one is colonoscopy despair. Phase two is, I think I'm talking myself into the trade. Phase three is, I've now talked myself into the trade.

• 19:35Bill Simmons?

  That was in August.

• 19:36Speaker 01

  Phase four, which officially began today is prefacing a sentence with, I'm not bashing Jalen Brown. I won't do that, but we're, we're, we're getting, we're getting to the final phase, which is the turn to the dark side. And I, I think I'm made Thanksgiving, maybe?

• 19:52Bill Simmons?

  I'll never do it. I love Jalen Brown.

• 19:54Speaker 01

  Okay, good. Like wait, wait till the end of March. Wait till this team, you know, has 59 wins. Is the clear one seed in the, in the East. And, you know, the Celtics nation, this, we just went through this Celtics nation had.

• 20:10Bill Simmons?

  Philly starts bad and the Celtics are good.

• 20:12Speaker 01

  And, and this, this, this set of expectations around this Celtics team. When Tatum came back, you know, all of a sudden, and the, the, you know, hoops commentary, it was guilty of this as well. All of the talking, chattering class like, well, the Celtics with Tatum back, let's go ahead and maybe put them in pencil.

• 20:30Bill Simmons?

  They had their second best odds in the finals.

• 20:32Speaker 01

  I, I understand that. It was not well founded. So we'll see.

• 20:37Bill Simmons?

  The Mitchell Robinson thing is, is important. He's won over my dad. My dad for his entire life has loved people who just get rebounds. He was just raving about how giant he is and he just, you know, he knew it because we used to go against him with the Knicks and, but he was just like, this guy's, so basically they turned Jalen Brown into Paul George and Mitchell Robinson. But they also have full Tatum back. And they won 56 games last year in a conference where, you know, he had nine tanking teams out of the 30. So I, I feel like it's in 54 to 56. For me, this is, I hate to do it, but I think it's a lock.

• 21:11Speaker 01

  I don't think you hate to do it. Just for the record.

• 21:13Bill Simmons?

  No, I love to do it.

• 21:14Speaker 01

  You love to do it.

• 21:14Bill Simmons?

  I do love to do it. I think this is a lock. I, Missoula has proven that day to day, week to week. He MacGyver's the regular season. And it's like, oh, I guess it's a Ron Harper game tonight. And they're winning in Cleveland by eight in the fourth quarter. This is what they do. So three overs. All right.

• 21:31Speaker 01

  Oh, I made it a lock as well.

• 21:32Bill Simmons?

  Oh, okay.

• 21:33Speaker 01

  For the avoidance of doubt. I'm just, I'm not going to lock just out of spite. I'm not getting the uni lock. No way. No lock.

• 21:40Bill Simmons?

  The, uh, the questions would be Paul George, how many games? How many games for Mitch Robinson? And then obviously Tatum. And what kind of minutes can they put on Tatum? He looked absolutely spectacular in the preseason game I watched. But can he go back to being a 32 minutes, 72 to 75 games guy? Okay. Buckle, where's my camera? I'm going to go to my solo camel camera. Buckle the fuck up because we're about to talk about the Philadelphia 76ers. Woo. 49 and a half is the over under. Division plus two 50, conference plus four 10, title 10 to one.

• 22:18Bill Simmons?

  Playoffs minus five 50, play in house plus two 80.

• 22:21Speaker 01

  Oh, thank you.

• 22:22Bill Simmons?

  You didn't stare at that one for a second?

• 22:23Speaker 01

  No.

• 22:24Bill Simmons?

  It seemed to be a seven seed.

• 22:25Speaker 01

  I do want to be on record. I bet the Celtics to win the division at plus two 10.

• 22:30Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 22:30Speaker 01

  Like that price, better than two to one.

• 22:32Bill Simmons?

  Their 2027 first goes to Brooklyn, but it is top eight protected. They were 45 and 37. Last year, they have added Jalen Brown, LeBron James, Anthony Simons, LeBaron Phelan, Dean Wade and, and Contavious Caldwell Pope. They lost Paul George, Kelly Oubre, Quentin Grimes, Kelly, and Kelly Oubre. I put it second time because apparently that was a huge loss.

• 22:56Bill Simmons?

  The big question.

• 23:00Bill Simmons?

  Zach Lowe.

• 23:01Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 23:02Bill Simmons?

  How will the 76ers handle scrutiny? Adversity? And anything else ending in I T Y? As this season goes along?

• 23:13Speaker 01

  That includes unity, U N I T Y.

• 23:16Bill Simmons?

  Pick another I T Y.

• 23:17Speaker 01

  U N I T Y.

• 23:20Bill Simmons?

  Nudity, anything with an I T Y.

• 23:23Bill Simmons?

  How do they handle all the I T Ys this year?

• 23:26Speaker 01

  Look, LeBron has seen it all. Joel has seen it all and been the butt of it all. I, Jalen Brown has been a finals MVP. He's just gotten traded in the most high profile, sort of like what trade in a while? I don't think much is going to faze them. Now, I, you know, if they're eight and 10 after 18 games, it's going to be a little crazy, but I also think reflected in this line. There's a certain expectation that like, we're just not going to see the starting five together all that many games. It's going to be a little clunky at first. I think for whatever reason, well, for all the reasons, people are giving this team a little bit of grace compared to a lot of past super teams. LeBron is almost 42 years old. So I, I don't worry about that. I really don't. It's going to be a circus, but it's not going to be like

• 24:11Speaker 01

  the heat in 2010, like LeBron bumping Spoh on the way to the bench. Is it all the sky falling? This is a failure, blah, blah, blah.

• 24:20Bill Simmons?

  That one thing with the Embiid was late to a practice. Mike Breen, the nicest guy alive somehow has to apologize Stephen A. Style for having the wrong information, which I'm not sure he had the wrong information.

• 24:32Speaker 01

  Uh oh.

• 24:36Bill Simmons?

  House. We haven't talked about this on a pod, I don't think.

• 24:41Bill Simmons?

  What is your biggest concern with the Sixers? Other than Joel Embiid playing 35 games?

• 24:46Speaker 01

  They don't have a, a backup center. It's, it's, it's, it's Bona. Right now is, it's Bona. Do you, so I think of this Sixers team as basically a team that's going to play in, you divide the season up into thirds. Because it doesn't make any sense for LeBron or Embiid to be, you know, playing many more than 50 games each. I mean, and, and Embiid 40 seems fine to me. But I do believe that the majority of nights, we will see Maxey and Edgecombe and Jalen Brown. And that solves, you know, a lot of what you hear people saying, is there the, how do we share the ball? How do we, you know, all those kinds of things. And I think they'll experiment over the course of the season.

• 25:30Bill Simmons?

  So you feel like those three guys for 68 to 72 games each, you know, you have that.

• 25:35Speaker 01

  Yep. And then at different points in time, they'll bring in LeBron and Embiid for stretches. Uh, and I'm, I think they're going to be very targeted about it. I haven't sat down with their schedule to say, oh, this is the point where they should try, here's the 10 game stretch where we're going to experiment. But I think that they will break the season basically up into thirds and say, you know, we have this runway. We have all this depth. We have high level talent. We won 45 games last year. We can be in the top four if we can get to 50. The number's perfect at 49 and a half. I think 50 is a reasonable goal for this team. And, you know, I, we have proof of concept that, uh,

• 26:16Speaker 01

  Maxey as a facilitator and, and Edgecombe, that works. So let's layer in Jalen Brown. Will those three guys like playing together? I kind of think they will. So I think Dean Wade's super underrated. What he's going to bring to the table for this team.

• 26:31Bill Simmons?

  So basically their bench of Simons, Dean Wade, KCP.

• 26:37Bill Simmons?

  Bona by default, little Barlow. I still like Phelan. I still feel like he's going to be heard from.

• 26:46Bill Simmons?

  You know, obviously I've been following this league my whole life and we've seen situations like this before where you have teams with a lot of famous players and accomplished players and, you know, I think the 08 Celtics was probably the best version of how this all plays out. Where you have guys who are at specific points of their career, who were all good on their own. But it reached a point where they wanted to sacrifice for the greater good. I get really nervous when you have teams where I'm not sure guys are at the right points of their career for a team like this. And that's what I've been thinking about all summer as I try to figure out how scared I am of the Sixers. You have Embiid who breaks down every year. Who has never really proven

• 27:31Bill Simmons?

  that he can be a guy who can play four rounds in the playoffs, who has all of his own stuff to prove. He is not Kevin Garnett in 2008 saying, I've done everything I can. I'll give up my five to six shots. This is the last thing, my last hurdle. I think Embiid's trying to still prove, I'm one of the best players in the league. I can play all the time. He's not at that sacrifice point yet. LeBron, every time he's been asked to really sacrifice, it always feels like it's begrudgingly. And we always have to hear about it from a bunch of different reporters, like how, no, it's true. It's like, oh man, we, it's just unbelievable what LeBron's doing. He's all about winning. Like we always have to hear the dialogue in real time about it. Jalen is the one that really worries me with this. Because Jalen went from being the guy

• 28:17Bill Simmons?

  to now being the supporting actor in a giant movie that he gets a couple of scenes with Matt Damon. And he gets a couple of scenes with DiCaprio, but he's like basically the Alec Baldwin part. Just set some picks. We might need you some night. We're not going to go to the end of the game. Stand over there. I don't know how he's going to handle that. Maxey, who still hasn't proven he's a top seven, eight guy who can carry a team and is right at the point of his career where he would love to do that, now has to worry about all this other stuff. And then you have Edgecombe in year two. Who's trying to prove that he's a real guy in the league and I think he will be, and I like him. But it just, all that stuff worries me when kind of nobody's at the right point of their career for a team like this. And I can't get past it.

• 29:04Speaker 02

  Was that a long prelude to an emphatic under?

• 29:08Bill Simmons?

  I'm going, I'm going under. I am. I have them in the mid 40s.

• 29:13Speaker 02

  You were gonna zag. I thought it was gonna, I thought I was waiting for the, all that said.

• 29:17Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm going under. I think they're in the 43 to 45 range and I don't think they're really gonna care that much.

• 29:23Speaker 02

  Woo, lock it up then. 43 wins.

• 29:25Bill Simmons?

  Not locking it up.

• 29:27Speaker 01

  That's crazy.

• 29:28Bill Simmons?

  I think they're, I think the East is really good. I think they're gonna have stretches where they go like 3 and 7 and 10 games and everybody's writing about what's wrong with the Sixers. And I would not want to see them in a playoff series, period. So please don't, we're talking regular season only.

• 29:45Bill Simmons?

  I think it's gonna be up and down with swings and a lot of coverage. And I think once there's blood in the water, we've seen how the media and the blogosphere and the podcasts all react to it. The moment something's unhappy, we're gonna blow it up. The moment somebody has a quote somewhere, the moment somebody's official media spokesman on whatever podcast or show talks about how something's unhappy and everyone's gonna blow that out. And it's just gonna be, we saw this with the Heat in 2011. I think it's gonna be like that.

• 30:17Bill Simmons?

  So, and then it'll get to the playoffs and it might be fine, but I think it's gonna be up and down. So I am under. What do you think, Zach?

• 30:23Speaker 02

  The fully actualized version of this team is the biggest threat to the Knicks in the playoffs.

• 30:28Bill Simmons?

  No question.

• 30:29Speaker 02

  I don't know that we'll ever see the fully actualized version of this team because of all the health issues, but even like the version where Embiid is semi-healthy and able to be load managed through part of the playoffs, I think is still among, if not the most dangerous threat to the Knicks. I just, regular season, I think if I'm Philly, my goal is, I don't care where I am as long as I'm in the top 6. If I'm in the top 6, I'm in. I don't have to exert myself in a play-in game or 2 to get in. I get a week off or whatever it is. I think that's hugely important to them. I am going a little bit under. 47-ish wins is fine for me. I just think 50, I think there are just too many moving parts, but I, I

• 31:12Speaker 02

  I don't worry about the one ball problem. I'm not worried as much, nearly as much as you are about the drama and the anonymous, you know, this guy was late, this guy said this in a film session, maybe that comes out, maybe it won't.

• 31:25Bill Simmons?

  It's gonna happen.

• 31:26Speaker 02

  I mean, remember it happened when Embiid was called out in a film session for being late and he lashed out and like, I'm gonna, we can't have this coming out of our locker room. Maybe they got another system, but I'm going a slight under only, cause also similar to the Western Conference, I have a lot of like overs in the meat of the Eastern Conference and I need to have an under at the top. So that's the Knicks and now it's the Sixers.

• 31:48Bill Simmons?

  So where, I looked at my notes, I wrote them down for 45 wins. So you had them at 47, so we're 2 apart. Where are you, House?

• 31:56Speaker 01

  I have them winning 50 games, so I have them as, as an over.

• 31:59Bill Simmons?

  Ooh, House.

• 32:00Speaker 01

  And I don't think that they're, they end of game stuff, like what you're describing in terms of your concerns around Jalen Brown, they are going to feed him. I think Maxey, Maxey is bumping up against that top 8 or 10. Remember the conversation we were having about Maxey through the first like 40 games, 50 games of the season last season, where everybody was skeptical of, of the Sixers and Maxey's like, fuck that. I'm, don't be skeptical of anything. Now, he did lead the league in minutes. Nick Nurse does ride his horses, but here's the thing, Jalen Brown will help that. Maxey doesn't have to.

• 32:33Bill Simmons?

  Jalen Brown wants to play. He'll play 2,700 minutes if you put him out there.

• 32:37Speaker 01

  And the good thing is, you know, some of the sort of concern I've seen in the run-up to the season around how will this work is, will it impair Edgecombe's development? Well, I don't think him playing with Brown and Maxey's gonna impair his development. And I think under the tutelage of, of LeBron, you know, when he's on the floor with those guys.

• 32:57Bill Simmons?

  The tutelage of LeBron.

• 32:57Speaker 01

  At this stage of his career, he's, he's brand new to the league and he gets to play in a circus. So there, there's something to that.

• 33:04Bill Simmons?

  LeBron, can I talk to you after the game? I can't, I'm flying on my helicopter. 10:01. I'll talk to you tomorrow.

• 33:10Speaker 01

  I think Edgecombe is gonna develop just fine. I think the Sixers team, top 4 in the East, so they get home court in the first round. Not that it matters, but that's where I have them.

• 33:19Bill Simmons?

  I think the end of the game stuff is gonna be an actual thing. If Embiid's out there, you have to give him the ball.

• 33:25Speaker 02

  I mean, maybe. There's been times in the preseason, the one game he played where he was in the corner here and there, they'll just have to mix it up. That's basketball. That's what happens when you get a lot of good players on your team. I think honestly, like, a team that's trying to win the championship this year, and that's what the Sixers are doing, whether you believe in it or not, should not have VJ Edgecombe in the role that he would have on a bad team in his second year. That's, that's not, that's not a realistic thing. And the Edgecombe, the, the pause I had going under was despite LeBron being 42, we know Embiid's gonna miss games. Edgecombe, Maxey, Brown is a really nice floor to have on a night-to-night basis. Like, this was a hard line for me. I really just had to have a couple unders toward the top of the East and this felt like one just, just to have.

• 34:10Bill Simmons?

  I wish I felt better about their backup center situation. And the 20 to 50 games, somebody else is gonna have to play all the center minutes for them.

• 34:21Speaker 01

  It feels like there's guys out there though. The, the Claxton, the Bagley. I'm just saying at some point, they, they can address it.

• 34:30Bill Simmons?

  We'll see. I think in the playoffs, it's a completely different conversation.

• 34:35Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 34:35Bill Simmons?

  Regular season only. There's one other thing I wanted to mention. I was thinking about, there's this incredible LeBron subplot. Of all the times he plays a team where it's gonna feel like a huge game, even though he's gonna be 42 this season, Cleveland, Toronto against Kawhi, the Celtics, his biggest rival, the Knicks, the champs, Miami, Dick Teas them, obviously not a lot of good blood there. Lakers, kind of a weird exit. Houston, KD, Golden State, Curry, Dray and Kerr, and then OKC and San Antonio. I just listed 10 teams that it's gonna be like, whoa, LeBron against blank. And it's just because he's been in the league so long, he just has a lot of these though, you know?

• 35:17Speaker 02

  The idea of LeBron in a playoff series against either Cleveland or Miami is very, very delicious.

• 35:23Bill Simmons?

  Or Toronto. How about Toronto?

• 35:25Speaker 02

  I mean, he's, it's Lebranto already. He's been there, done that.

• 35:30Speaker 02

  I would put, you think Boston's his biggest rival over Golden State? Do we face him 4 straight finals?

• 35:35Bill Simmons?

  Boston was his biggest East rival for the first, I don't know, 10 years of his career. That was the mountain for him.

• 35:40Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 35:41Bill Simmons?

  Then it became Golden State.

• 35:42Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 35:43Bill Simmons?

  Is Golden State, I compared Steph Curry to Carmelo Soprano in part 1 of our podcast. I hope Golden State's anyone, anyone's rival. House, Jack in NYC had this email for you.

• 35:52Speaker 01

  Uh oh.

• 35:53Bill Simmons?

  He knew you'd like it. With LeBron ending the process and Joel Embiid looking skinny coming into the season, I was thinking of some fitting new nicknames for Joel. GOP 21 or Joe Zempick.

• 36:08Speaker 01

  Joel Zempick?

• 36:09Bill Simmons?

  Joe Zempick.

• 36:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 36:10Bill Simmons?

  Joel is that, nah.

• 36:11Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 36:12Bill Simmons?

  I just think maybe.

• 36:13Speaker 01

  It's pretty good.

• 36:14Bill Simmons?

  He's in shape. Okay, 3 unders for us.

• 36:17Speaker 01

  No, it isn't.

• 36:18Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I'm sorry. 2 unders and an over.

• 36:20Speaker 02

  One brave man.

• 36:22Bill Simmons?

  Toronto Raptors, over. 46 and 1/2 is the over/under. Division 5 to 1, Conference 9 to 1, Title 22 to 1, Playoffs minus 270. Their draft pick goes to the Clippers this year. They were 46 and 36 last year, 16 and 14 in their last 30, but that was before they turned Brandon Ingram

• 36:43Bill Simmons?

  and Mamu into Kawhi Leonard and Allen Graves. And before we even talk about the Raptors, I wanna predict right now that Allen Graves is gonna be Zach Lowe's favorite bench player in the entire league.

• 36:55Speaker 02

  Oh, wow.

• 36:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 36:56Speaker 02

  Something.

• 36:57Bill Simmons?

  I think there's gonna be.

• 36:58Speaker 02

  Not bench rookie, bench player.

• 37:00Bill Simmons?

  Bench player. I think you're gonna, you're gonna have a whole, now that your fingers work again, I think there could even be an Allen Graves post in your future. I think you're gonna be completely fascinated by him every time he's in the game.

• 37:14Speaker 02

  I mean, on his own team, I'm assuming Colin Murray-Boyles at least starts the season coming off the bench.

• 37:22Bill Simmons?

  Another Zach Lowe favorite.

• 37:24Speaker 02

  Couldn't be more excited for that.

• 37:27Bill Simmons?

  The big question, House. Is Kawhi a villain? Is he disgraced? Is he totally the same? Is he better off? What is he?

• 37:37Speaker 01

  I hate to answer a question with the question, but does it matter?

• 37:42Bill Simmons?

  I wrote down next, does he care?

• 37:44Speaker 01

  I'm sure he does not.

• 37:45Speaker 02

  He for sure does not care.

• 37:47Speaker 01

  He does not care. No.

• 37:48Bill Simmons?

  Will this be fun? Will it be weird? Will it be elephant in the room here or are we just all gonna move on?

• 37:52Speaker 01

  Well, it's gonna be fun for him because we, there's proof of concept. Toronto loves him. He is a beloved, you know, welcome, he's not a prodigal son. Or is he? I don't know.

• 38:04Bill Simmons?

  Does Toronto love Kawhi or do they appreciate Kawhi? They love Kawhi? Is there actual love for him?

• 38:10Speaker 02

  I.

• 38:11Bill Simmons?

  He was there for 9 months.

• 38:13Speaker 02

  It's appreciated. It's appreciated, but you know.

• 38:15Speaker 01

  He won them a goddamn title.

• 38:17Speaker 02

  The, the city is so starved for, you know, the Maple Leafs haven't won in a million years. The Raptors were an afterthought for so long. And then they, they, the Lowry, DeRozan teams just got, you know, punched down by LeBron year after year. I think appreciate more. They love Kyle Lowry. They love DeMar DeRozan.

• 38:33Speaker 01

  Good point.

• 38:34Bill Simmons?

  They love Kyle Lowry.

• 38:35Speaker 01

  Great, great. Okay, I get the difference.

• 38:38Bill Simmons?

  So we all think Kawhi could care less.

• 38:41Speaker 01

  I'm positive of it.

• 38:42Bill Simmons?

  The next question is.

• 38:43Speaker 02

  He already forgot. I think he's already like, what happened over the summer's stuff?

• 38:48Bill Simmons?

  Do we think Kawhi can still be an All-NBA player for the Toronto Raptors?

• 38:52Speaker 02

  1 million percent. What would the argument against that be?

• 38:55Bill Simmons?

  All right.

• 38:56Speaker 02

  Injury. Just availability.

• 38:57Speaker 01

  Just injury, that's all.

• 38:58Bill Simmons?

  We all agree on that. Do we like the Raptors roster that includes Murray-Boyles, Scotty Barnes, who made a leap last year, RJ Barrett in the contract year, Quickley's back, Graves, Walter I like, Jamal Shad?

• 39:15Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 39:16Bill Simmons?

  Zach Lowe loved his contract extension.

• 39:19Speaker 01

  Defensive beast.

• 39:19Bill Simmons?

  They have Jackson Davis and, and hopefully Jakob Pertle with hopefully a new back. I feel like we all like this roster, so why isn't this an automatic over?

• 39:31Speaker 02

  Uh, I think questions about the level of shooting, Kawhi's availability,

• 39:39Speaker 02

  spacing, depth, uh, and just again.

• 39:44Bill Simmons?

  I feel like they have depth.

• 39:46Speaker 02

  I mean, they have shed who's very shed and Murray boils is six and seven and per and and Walter is eight. That's a very good topic. You're right. Beyond that, I get a little.

• 39:55Bill Simmons?

  I think Graves is gonna be nine and you're gonna fall in love with them in 10 games.

• 39:58Speaker 02

  I think battle comes in and swings the court. So maybe they have enough depth. I think it's just, it was a little mucky on offense last year. Kawhi should be a sell for all of that. Um, I just think it's more the East is really good. I I'm sure the line is factoring in that Kawhi plays 50 games or 55 games. And what do they do when they don't have him? And you know, 22 and 30 against 500 and above teams last year, 24 and six against the rest, you know, it's just, I I wouldn't get too ahead of my skis on them as like a regular season juggernaut, but I will take the over on this line.

• 40:35Bill Simmons?

  Kawhi is gonna play because he's not gonna have to hold his availability hostage to get more payments. While not knowing about what he how he's getting paid.

• 40:43Speaker 02

  I mean, here's the concern with Kawhi. He did it last year. That was an incredible.

• 40:49Bill Simmons?

  Played a full season.

• 40:50Speaker 02

  Incredible season that he had last year.

• 40:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 40:53Speaker 02

  When's the last time he did it two consecutive years? That that's my issue.

• 40:57Bill Simmons?

  2011 draft. Year 16.

• 41:00Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is my issue.

• 41:02Bill Simmons?

  I.

• 41:03Speaker 02

  He used up all of the the the juvenation juice last season and it was a waste.

• 41:08Bill Simmons?

  I really wanted to zag and go Raptors under, but man, the Murray boils and Barnes and Kawhi all out there together at the end of games. Just sounds like a fucking nightmare.

• 41:18Speaker 02

  Look out.

• 41:19Bill Simmons?

  It really does. I also think Barrett is a pretty interesting trade piece for them. If that's somebody that isn't going to um, maybe be there long term. And maybe they've moved their money in a specific direction. They still have the ability to flip him for something. Whether they want more shooting, whether they want to roll the dice with like a more expensive center, who knows?

• 41:43Speaker 02

  So there's two things to say as I look at this number. First of all, it's Kawhi Leonard replacing Brandon Ingram.

• 41:51Bill Simmons?

  It sounds great.

• 41:52Speaker 02

  They won 46 games last year.

• 41:54Bill Simmons?

  And Murray boils year two.

• 41:56Speaker 02

  Why is this number 46 and a half?

• 41:58Bill Simmons?

  Because of Kawhi's availability and the East is really good.

• 42:00Speaker 02

  And it just stayed right there.

• 42:02Bill Simmons?

  Cause people don't know how to price it.

• 42:04Speaker 02

  People don't know how to price it.

• 42:05Bill Simmons?

  Like, I'm taking the over. I'm not making it a lock.

• 42:08Speaker 02

  Well, here's the other thing. I flirted. I flirted with lock. I flirted with lock and I had to talk because I think this is gonna be a really good regular season team.

• 42:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 42:16Speaker 02

  My Kawhi sustainability concerns are more about playoff, like survival and sustainability.

• 42:22Bill Simmons?

  Playing every other day. Yeah.

• 42:24Speaker 02

  But I had to, I had, I'm not locking it. I had to sort of walk myself back from like lock status. They were two and 22 against the top six teams in the West and the top three teams in the East.

• 42:34Bill Simmons?

  House and I were going crazy last year because we had the under for the Raptors and they were driving us crazy. Somehow they hit the over anyway.

• 42:41Speaker 02

  Because they beat the hell out of out of bad teams. They they ended up with an above 500 record against the above 500 teams. But against the top upper echelon, this top six teams in the West and the top three in the East, two and 22.

• 42:55Bill Simmons?

  They didn't have Kawhi Leonard and they had Brandon Ingram apparently playing on a partially torn Achilles tendon for a lot of that.

• 43:01Speaker 02

  That's the answer. That's what you have to come up with. It's an under for me. I think they're gonna win exactly 46 games again.

• 43:07Bill Simmons?

  Zach, is there any way they could turn Barrett and something else into Kyrie?

• 43:12Bill Simmons?

  If Dallas is kind of punting on this year and doing one more four to 10 year.

• 43:16Speaker 02

  Sure, I, you know, you gotta sweeten it with probably a pick at two picks. I don't know how many picks and other other stuff swaps. Barrett's a really interesting player because I I I simultaneously think he's become underrated. And I I agree that I wouldn't be shocked if they trade him. I wouldn't be shocked if they decide they're better with him as a sixth man and Jacoby Walter starting. Although I don't think that they would really have the institutional fortitude to make that move. But he was their leading scorer in the playoffs, I think, and he's.

• 43:48Bill Simmons?

  He was kind of their most reliable basket.

• 43:50Speaker 02

  He was. He he's become, he's become a pretty good three point shooter. His defense hasn't come along as much as they had hoped. But he's like a really good all. He does a little bit of everything. And somehow that, the jack of all trades, master of nothing, leaves you sometimes wanting more. But sometimes I think you have to look at him and be like, I'm pretty satisfied. This guy's like 25 and five. It's a pretty good player. I'm not just willy nilly throwing him into trades.

• 44:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I wonder for an extension, he's probably in the 23 to 25 a year range with a lot of the other guys we mentioned in part one. But if he thinks he's getting more than that, he's not staying.

• 44:26Speaker 02

  For the record, I had Toronto over last year and I never sweated it for one second.

• 44:30Bill Simmons?

  I thought I had the under with somebody.

• 44:33Speaker 02

  I had a wonderful over with them.

• 44:34Bill Simmons?

  What do you have for this year?

• 44:35Speaker 02

  Because it was in the mid 30s, under 46 and a half, because I think they're gonna win 46 games again this year.

• 44:41Bill Simmons?

  Sleight under for House.

• 44:42Speaker 02

  I didn't say it.

• 44:44Bill Simmons?

  I think this team's gonna be kind of a nightmare when they have all their dudes together. This is one of those on the schedule where if you're whoever, you're like, ah, fuck. I got Kawhi, Murray boils, Barnes and that fucking Graves guy. And they, I gotta deal with all of this.

• 45:02Speaker 02

  You got a Graves jersey yet?

• 45:03Bill Simmons?

  Love Graves. You're gonna love him. I'm telling you. I didn't like him in the draft, but I I watched him for a half in summer league and I was like, this guy's amazing.

• 45:12Speaker 02

  Phil Simmons experience.

• 45:13Bill Simmons?

  He is, he does your favorite thing, Zach Lowe, the um, rope a dope, the across half court pass. Where it seems like he's running back, but he's not. And then he just jumps and takes it.

• 45:27Speaker 02

  Quickest U-turn on quickest U-turn on a rookie ever from I hated him in summer league to I'm now so high on him that he's gonna be your favorite player coming off the bench.

• 45:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I think I think he's gonna be good. It's gonna be hilarious when he's in the G League all year. All right, last but not least, oh no, last but least.

• 45:43Speaker 02

  Last and least.

• 45:45Bill Simmons?

  The Brooklyn Nets. I'm not even reading the odds. They were 20 and 62 last year. Last 30, they were five and 25. And good news, they don't have their first round pick. Houston gets to swap with them. Their over under is 24 and a half. And my big question, House.

• 46:04Bill Simmons?

  Could Brooklyn execute the first ever zombie tank? What's a zombie tank? It's how I think at least one bad team will handle not having a 2027 first rounder. Where you want to be in the bottom three. Because you don't want your owner being like, what the fuck? Why did we end up in the four to 10 and we just gave them the first pick in the draft? Why did we do that? We're gonna be in that bottom three, right?

• 46:31Bill Simmons?

  The question for me, they did this with the, when the Celtics had their picks. And they just treated the pick like a sunk cost. And they didn't really care what happened and it was to the, and then there was another year where they did care. And they were posting up Brook Lopez for a month straight as my dad was going nuts. Will it be more the sunk cost version or will they do what the Pelicans did last year? We're like, we don't have our pick. Let's just go for it. What would you do if you ran the Nets?

• 46:57Speaker 02

  You mean the Pelicans went for it last year and still only won 26 games?

• 47:00Bill Simmons?

  They were 10 and 20 in their last 30. They were like trying to win. But what would you do if you're the Knicks is that are the Nets is that you don't care?

• 47:07Speaker 02

  This is my favorite team, the two ball Nets. They can't wait to give out two balls. They are, they have two balls. In fact, I might put two balls, like the Nets logo with with with some danglers.

• 47:17Bill Simmons?

  The Sam Cassell balls?

• 47:18Speaker 02

  That's what they're gonna be. It's exactly right. It's the two balls Nets.

• 47:21Bill Simmons?

  You think this is a whoever's dribbling over half court gets to shoot?

• 47:25Speaker 02

  A thousand percent.

• 47:26Bill Simmons?

  Can we bring Tyreek Evans out of retirement to play for this team?

• 47:29Speaker 02

  I read a summary that said that they're rebuilding, they're they're done with the tank phase and now they're in the like the rebuilding. They've turned the corner. I'm like, look at this roster. What the fuck corner did they turn?

• 47:39Bill Simmons?

  I rebuilding, building, duh building. I what? What's the right word, Zach?

• 47:47Speaker 02

  Rebuilding. They're still rebuilding.

• 47:48Bill Simmons?

  Still rebuilding.

• 47:49Speaker 02

  I think you guys are being mean. You're being mean. Okay. Jaeger Joelman is gonna be really good. I think I I like him.

• 47:57Bill Simmons?

  I like him too.

• 47:58Speaker 02

  Settle down then. I like Mikhail Brown Jr. I think those guys will be an interesting backcourt.

• 48:02Bill Simmons?

  You'll like him for the 22 games he plays this year.

• 48:04Speaker 02

  Good. Julius Randall and Michael Porter Jr. are legit NBA, good, like low end borderline All-Star kind of players. The line is 24 and a half. It actually, listen, now look, this was a tough, the East was really tough for me. Because all the logic would say that because of the lottery odds being the way they are, you should look askance at like really low lines and take the over on them. And yet I looked at Brooklyn and a couple other teams. And I was like, well, A, you're outlining the incentive correctly. They actually don't care if they're relegated. It might actually be better for their pick to be relegated. Uh, and so I I I don't think they care.

• 48:47Speaker 02

  And I I think the opposite also applies is that with everyone else trying harder, there are just no easy games for a team that's not very good.

• 48:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 48:56Speaker 02

  And so that that could apply the other way. I also think that um, look, Jordy Fernandez will have him playing super hard. He's a really good coach. All of that on paper, this should be an over. But given everything I just said, and the fact that part of rebuilding is, I think, Michael Porter Jr. is sitting there eligible for an extension.

• 49:17Bill Simmons?

  The other piece.

• 49:18Speaker 02

  Yes. Is, did they feel like a potential sell team? So I'm actually going under on 24 and a half, despite the logic being all the win totals would be scrunched toward the middle.

• 49:26Bill Simmons?

  I'm a hard under and that's one of the big reasons is I don't think Porter Jr. is on this team in February.

• 49:32Speaker 02

  Zach, is that an ethical under because you were nice about it and Simmons and I were unethical unders because we were so mean? I guess, I guess it's ethical in the sense that I think if this team played balls out all year long and didn't and played their young players and their veterans and all that, they would win more than 24 and a half. They would win 25 or more games.

• 49:51Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 49:51Speaker 02

  They still might, um, but I'm going under.

• 49:54Bill Simmons?

  Fine. Zach runs into people work for the Nets, like when he goes to a Nets game or Knicks game and tries to, you know, he's like, he does not.

• 50:00Speaker 02

  He's a pleasant, happy guy. Don't send me a text, Sean Marks. That's what.

• 50:04Bill Simmons?

  No, and they and they go, why does Simmons hate us so much? What's, why, what does he have against us? I don't have anything against the Nets. I just think they're stupid. I think they run the team terribly. That's what I have against the Nets incompetence. They do dumb shit. And by the way, if Ishbia hadn't thrown them the all time lifeline of an unhappy superstar on a big contract who wanted to get the fuck out of there and was picking his team, AKA Yanis, last summer. And all Phoenix had to do is wait it out. Instead, Phoenix is like, here's everything. Take it all.

• 50:43Bill Simmons?

  If that hadn't happened, this team would be a fucking catastrophe. By the way, they should have taken Darius Akuff in the draft. I'll say it.

• 50:51Speaker 02

  But it did, but it did happen. And then they even flipped the Bonanza for even more with the Mikael Bridges trade, which has worked out fine for both teams. And so now it's, now it's time to turn those things into things. And that's why the, the Brown pick is, is going to be such a game.

• 51:07Bill Simmons?

  They got a bunch of first rounders from a team that's going to win 50 to 55 games every year.

• 51:11Speaker 01

  The five first rounders.

• 51:12Speaker 02

  You just said the Knicks had a three year window and that's it. We're already in year two of it and you're, and you're telling, and those picks are like further out than that.

• 51:19Bill Simmons?

  The Nets fans are gone. This is like when they, when you're watching those movies where they have the makeshift business in an office that everybody can clear out in 40 minutes. And then the feds show up and nothing's gone. And there's just, you see the computer wires and you're like, there was definitely an office here. That's the Nets fans, they're gone. The Knicks ended the Nets and guess who else ended them? The Liberty. The, you go to Barclays for a Liberty game and it's a hundred times more urgent than the Nets. The Nets are done. It's over. They need to move.

• 51:49Speaker 02

  The office you're describing was already firmly in work from home, four days a week mode. Like there wasn't, there wasn't that much to take out of the office, but you're correct about, they really did lose an entire generation of fans. Whatever, whatever chance they had at a, at the young generation, 12 and under fans is gone. They're all Knicks fans forever.

• 52:09Bill Simmons?

  They have lost the city. It's a rap. They're not getting it back. It will never get it back. And people will go to Barclays to see the other teams and that's their destiny. They're basically the Clippers in the 2000s. You have nothing else to say, House?

• 52:23Speaker 01

  I agree with all of that.

• 52:24Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 52:25Speaker 02

  Now you under or over? It's a, it's a triple under.

• 52:27Speaker 01

  I took under, yeah.

• 52:28Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 52:30Bill Simmons?

  I will say I like a couple of the Nets.

• 52:34Speaker 01

  Jemmin's good.

• 52:35Bill Simmons?

  I enjoy Clowney. I think he can have a moment on a real team. I have, I have a, a small whiff of Traore stock. There's something there. I don't know what, he's like 15 years old. And, uh, and I liked Josh Minot when he was on the Celtics. I still feel like, I haven't given up on him either. On a bad team, there might be something.

• 52:57Speaker 02

  I'm going to go to sleep tonight.

• 53:01Speaker 02

  And at like two in the morning, I'm gonna wake up.

• 53:04Bill Simmons?

  I like Josh Minot.

• 53:04Speaker 02

  And I'm gonna just start screaming, I enjoy Clowney. I enjoy Clowney. I enjoy Clowney.

• 53:10Bill Simmons?

  Am I wrong? What's wrong with Clowney?

• 53:12Speaker 02

  No, he's fine. It's just the most random player to enjoy that I could possibly imagine. I just never thought I would hear you say the words, I enjoy Clowney.

• 53:21Bill Simmons?

  They lost Nick Claxton, who I think hasn't been good in at least two years. He had a cup of coffee, that's better. I think this is one of the worst rebuilds in recent history. I'm just in awe of how bad it is. They tanked the last two seasons and ended up with two rookies that I'm not even sure will ever make an All-Star team.

• 53:39Speaker 01

  The five first round picks in 2025 will be an all-timer.

• 53:45Speaker 02

  I think Jomans is going to be good. I mean, maybe I'll plant my flag and scoop up. And they fell to what, what is he, the eighth pick or something? I mean, they fell like Jordan Frieden has won too many games and so they didn't get where they wanted to go. And you know, it's not like they picked Anthony Bennett or something with the number one pick. They had a mid first round, mid lottery pick. And I think he's going to be pretty good.

• 54:05Bill Simmons?

  Could they go back to New Jersey? That ship has sailed.

• 54:08Speaker 02

  Swamp Dragons, baby.

• 54:09Bill Simmons?

  New Jersey's red hot right now. Netflix is moving there. Real estate's on fire. People like Jersey. Maybe they need a stadium.

• 54:17Speaker 02

  Would you rather have?

• 54:19Bill Simmons?

  Could they move Barclays like when people move their houses to a different location? Is Barclays too big to do that? Could they just move it?

• 54:25Speaker 01

  They have the hockey stadium. They can't play in Prudential where they play hockey?

• 54:29Bill Simmons?

  I would think about it. Just make the Barclays, the Liberty Stadium. What were we going to say, Zach?

• 54:35Speaker 02

  Just the, the, like the three picks right after Jomans, Murray, Boils, Malawatch, Coward. I think you'd still, as much as my optimism exists for Jomans, I think you'd still say, I want Murray, Boils and Coward over him long-term for sure.

• 54:51Bill Simmons?

  Oh, really?

• 54:52Speaker 02

  Malawatch, no.

• 54:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I would much rather have Coward and Murray, Boils. Okay. Well, that was a rollicking first division for us. It's all downhill from here. We're going to take a break and then we have the, uh, the central coming up next. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. We're spending this entire two-part podcast trying to figure out what we actually believe about this NBA season. Who's winning the title? Who's going over? Who's going under? What predictions are we, we going to regret by February? I'm sure there's going to be a few. FanDuel has a reward stack built exactly for all this stuff. You get a stack of rewards to use on NBA futures while we're sitting here talking ourselves into teams for the rest of the shows. You can make your future picks alongside us on FanDuel or you can go against us. Put your reward stack to work on NBA futures with FanDuel.

• 55:40Bill Simmons?

  Check it out on the FanDuel app. Make this your most rewarding season ever. 21 plus select states or 18 plus DC or Wyoming. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. It's football season and Uber Eats is delivering deals every single day. This week, buy a four-piece signature chicken from Popeyes and get another one free on Uber Eats. When your watch party gets hungry, order in and keep everyone's attention where it matters on the game. Order a four-piece signature chicken from Popeyes. Get another one free. No matter who scores big tonight, you'll score great deals on Uber Eats all season long because it's not football without food. It really isn't.

• 56:26Bill Simmons?

  Popeyes offer valid through November 1st. Add eligible menu item to order prior to checkout. Taxes, fees and terms apply. Product availability varies by region. Exclusions may apply. See app for details. The central division is here. We're going to start with the Cleveland Cavaliers. They're over under is 40 and a half, plus one, 25 for the division, nine and one for the conference, 25 to one for the title. They do not have their draft pick. They're plus 750 for the one seed. They were 52 and 30 last year. The big question. Zach, if you can't win a title with James Harden, which I think we've proven, why would you then double down on two more years of James Harden?

• 57:06Speaker 02

  Back into that contract is going to hurt. I would just say what?

• 57:09Bill Simmons?

  How about the front end and the middle end?

• 57:13Bill Simmons?

  He was good in a preseason game this week and people were like, James Harden's still cooking. Of course he was. It was the preseason. What's going to happen when he has to play defense in a conference finals game? We saw it four months ago.

• 57:25Speaker 02

  This podcast is about 48 and a half regular season wins.

• 57:29Bill Simmons?

  It is. It's a great point.

• 57:30Speaker 02

  What were my alternatives? Like I, they, I, they, the Garland trade, I was surprised that they just sort of gave up on Garland. And it was obviously a huge win now move. I, I thought, you know, it made some sense to them. I don't know what else they could have done this summer. They tried to get LeBron, he didn't come. Uh, and so what, with no cap flexibility, I mean, they had to like shed a gazillion salaries to get Peyton Watson, which is a worthy gamble for them.

• 57:52Bill Simmons?

  What else happened? Kenny Atkinson. I don't know if you saw this. Analytically, he thought they won the summer.

• 57:59Speaker 02

  All right, okay.

• 58:03Bill Simmons?

  What else were you going to say about the Cavs?

• 58:05Speaker 02

  No, I, look, I, I'm not, I don't trust the Cavs in the playoffs, to be clear. Like I am Fox Mulder on all these Eastern Conference teams. I don't trust them. I don't trust James Harden in the big game. Not exactly a scorcher of a take in the year of our basketball gods, 2026. But I do trust them to win regular season games. I just think they're too talented in the starting five. Uh, and the first three or four guys they have coming off the bench, I have a lot of faith in. And I, I'm going over and I will make it a lock.

• 58:34Speaker 01

  Wow. That is so strong. Love that strong take.

• 58:39Bill Simmons?

  Really like it. Okay. I have a, two questions for House. You were a big Peyton Watson fan because my question was, what if they were wrong about Peyton Watson? Cause this was the all-in special. They have no capital, no assets, no cap space. If this doesn't work out with what they just built, the next move is to trade Evan Mobley.

• 59:01Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 59:02Bill Simmons?

  Because.

• 59:03Speaker 02

  Now you need to settle down, Juice. Whatever is in that white cup, like fill it up.

• 59:07Bill Simmons?

  I'm just saying we're out of moves. If it's like shit, we need to make a move. We are now in Evan Mobley is the move because that's, there's no moves left. Mitchell just got a huge extension.

• 59:17Speaker 01

  Allen is going to be.

• 59:19Bill Simmons?

  I don't think people are lining, I don't think people are lining up for that Jared Allen contract.

• 59:23Speaker 02

  You're trading Carl Towns to the Hornets and Evan Mobley around the league. Set a pour glass of settled down Juice.

• 59:29Bill Simmons?

  I'm just saying, if it doesn't work out this year and the trade game, blame game starts getting played, not a lot of options.

• 59:36Speaker 01

  All right.

• 59:37Bill Simmons?

  But you like Peyton Watson.

• 59:38Speaker 01

  I do. I think that he is exactly what this team needed. I, I, I was glad to see, you know, they, they really battled. I think that the seasoning of their very tough road through the playoffs.

• 59:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 59:51Speaker 01

  Was like extremely valuable. That, that's the floor raising effect for, for Mobley. I hope, because their entire, you know, fortunes really reside in what is Mobley stealing? We kind of keep saying it every season and he kind of does get a little bit better. Uh, and then he goes quiet a little bit.

• 1:00:13Bill Simmons?

  That was my next question for you.

• 1:00:14Speaker 01

  Some questions, go ahead.

• 1:00:16Bill Simmons?

  My next question for you was, is there any kind of leap left for Mobley or is this where we are?

• 1:00:20Speaker 01

  I think there's still a leap.

• 1:00:21Bill Simmons?

  Has he topped out as an 18 and nine guy? He was 30% from three last year. So the three-point.

• 1:00:26Speaker 01

  That's one place.

• 1:00:27Bill Simmons?

  Shooting barrage has not taken off.

• 1:00:29Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:00:29Bill Simmons?

  Four years, $223 million left. And they, as far as we can tell, would not talk about him for Giannis, right?

• 1:00:39Speaker 02

  I, I certainly heard that, that they, that, that they would not.

• 1:00:42Bill Simmons?

  They would not. And they would not talk about it for Jalen Brown either.

• 1:00:47Bill Simmons?

  Seems like they wouldn't. Did you hear others? You heard otherwise?

• 1:00:51Speaker 02

  No, no, I, I don't, I don't, I don't remember off the top of my head.

• 1:00:55Bill Simmons?

  God damn it, I'm going to get aggravated on NBA rumor net.com.

• 1:00:59Speaker 02

  I don't think they did, but I don't remember.

• 1:01:01Bill Simmons?

  I don't, his name, I didn't feel like was floating around.

• 1:01:06Bill Simmons?

  Peyton Watson thing, I talked about this on my podcast. It's you're really betting on that 19 games he played when Jokic wasn't there for most of them and they had to run the entire offense through him. And I have real questions about how much ball time he's going to get on a team with Mitchell.

• 1:01:22Speaker 02

  But are you really betting on that at 22 million a year? Or are you betting on that he's a lockdown defender that you need and makes enough corner threes?

• 1:01:29Bill Simmons?

  And he's gonna have to be. But we have a three-year sample size with Denver where he wasn't that, right? And then year four.

• 1:01:38Speaker 02

  Oh, I don't know.

• 1:01:39Bill Simmons?

  Showed flashes of it. He played in year three, he played like 14 minutes a game in the playoffs for Denver.

• 1:01:44Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:01:44Bill Simmons?

  He was basically like their 10th man.

• 1:01:46Speaker 02

  It was a mistake.

• 1:01:48Bill Simmons?

  Maybe.

• 1:01:48Speaker 02

  His defense has always been legit. I don't worry about his defense at all. I just need him to see, make sure the shot from the corner in particular is real.

• 1:01:55Bill Simmons?

  I just want to raise my hand. I'm pro Peyton Watson. I just wonder, was that, that's it? You're all in at this point and that's your move and you're not 100% positive? He can be your fifth guy, glue guy guy? So Zach seems more convinced on this.

• 1:02:12Speaker 02

  Well, I mean, the guy you're really all in on that we barely talked about is Donovan Mitchell's 76.4 million dollar player option in 2031. I mean, that was the real all-in move. And there's almost, I love Donovan Mitchell more than almost anyone in the media. I'm always higher on him than you guys when we do all NBA stuff.

• 1:02:31Bill Simmons?

  You, you, you guys us.

• 1:02:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, you guys do. There's almost no chance that that's, that's a good contract. And there's like almost 100% chance that it ends up being a, a bad contract at the end.

• 1:02:45Bill Simmons?

  I'll never say anything bad about a Greenwich Country Day graduate. They lost Max Struce and Dean Wade and added Peyton Watson. Feels like a sideways. They added Hazonia.

• 1:02:56Speaker 02

  Yeah, baby.

• 1:02:57Bill Simmons?

  People like Thomas that they got in the draft. There's some Tomlin stock that's been out in the market.

• 1:03:03Speaker 02

  They like Thomas. They like Thomas.

• 1:03:04Bill Simmons?

  They like Thomas. He had a big summer league too. I, I was a hard over for the Cavs. I think they're in the low 50s.

• 1:03:11Speaker 02

  Look at that.

• 1:03:12Bill Simmons?

  Great.

• 1:03:12Speaker 02

  Lock it up with me. Come on the, come on the Cleveland lock island over here.

• 1:03:17Bill Simmons?

  You know what else? They should be in the, in the low 50s because they're spending about $300 billion for this team. Like they, and every draft pick asset they've had.

• 1:03:27Speaker 02

  They're doing exactly what they're supposed to do. They made it, you know, you got Donovan Mitchell to a conference final.

• 1:03:33Bill Simmons?

  Fucking lock it down.

• 1:03:34Speaker 02

  No.

• 1:03:34Bill Simmons?

  Peyton Watson, Jersey guy?

• 1:03:35Speaker 02

  I'm just over. I'm just over. Yeah. It's a regular over for me. Three overs, all that rigamarole and everyone's over 48 and a half, which is not a small number. The funny thing is the market's moving in that, you know, it was 47 and a half for a while. People are like, oh, wait a minute, that's a low.

• 1:03:49Bill Simmons?

  I thought the division odd for them, that was going to be a bet I made when I was in Boston last week. And it's just plus 125 is like not enough value.

• 1:03:58Speaker 02

  Kind of think it is.

• 1:04:00Bill Simmons?

  I wanted that to be in the plus 150 range. All right. The weirdest over under of the entire two-part podcast, the Detroit Pistons, 47 and a half. They're plus 145 for the division, 27 to one for the title, plus 850 to be the one seed again. They were 60 and 22 last year. The big question, Zach. A 60-win team kept their top three. All of them are healthy and their over under dropped 12 and a half wins. What in the fuck just happened?

• 1:04:37Speaker 02

  It's what happens when Tobias Harris leaves in free agency.

• 1:04:39Bill Simmons?

  Is that it? It's a 12-win Tobias Harris departure?

• 1:04:44Speaker 02

  I think the conference got really, really good. The playoffs left oddsmakers, I guess, unconvinced that this was actually a 60-win team and convinced that it was a little bit of a paper tiger in a tank-tastic year where they just racked up wins.

• 1:04:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:04:59Speaker 02

  Against crap teams. Uh, and, and, you know, probably, probably, maybe, probably would have lost in the first round of the playoffs if Franz Wagner didn't get hurt in the middle of that series against Orlando. And then you throw in the Jalen Duran thing, um, that.

• 1:05:14Bill Simmons?

  Thing. Which part? The contentious holdout or them telling him he was their fourth best player?

• 1:05:20Speaker 02

  I don't, where did that come from? Cause I don't, I mean, I, even if you were doing that as a negotiating.

• 1:05:26Bill Simmons?

  I couldn't figure out who the three better than him are.

• 1:05:28Speaker 02

  I don't think you would just, I don't picture anyone being like, hey, Jalen, just FYI, you're our fourth best player. And B, who's the third best player?

• 1:05:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:05:38Speaker 02

  It doesn't make any sense.

• 1:05:39Bill Simmons?

  But it made the rounds for two days.

• 1:05:41Speaker 02

  It doesn't make any sense. And so I don't believe that that really happened or I, or some like Pistons mid-level front office guy was like, you know what? I'm sick of this. I'm going to tell you what I really think, Jalen Duran. And then, you know, deeper conference, all that, the line falls to where it falls.

• 1:06:00Bill Simmons?

  I am worried they lost too much toughness house. I love Beef Stew in this team. I'm not sure what happened. Clearly they felt like it was time to go, but I loved having him and I thought the combo of him and Duran was great. Tobias, I, I really enjoyed the Pistons the last couple of years. Tobias, they went to him all the time. He was Cade backup plan for two straight years and got, I thought, pretty good shots in the playoffs, got good shots. It's something that San Antonio will probably tap into with him. So losing him and, and Beef Stew, I didn't like that at all. I didn't mind. I've never liked Levert, so that's fine. John Collins, I watched on the Clippers last year and I just don't understand it. But the analytics like him, but, but I test, didn't really match it for me.

• 1:06:44Bill Simmons?

  Isaiah Joe, I've always kind of liked, but I can't tell if, you know, coming at like, is he just where he should be? It was like a heat check guy every once in a while. And then a Corey people like as a guard. But, uh, I guess the big thing for them with the over under to beat this is if Thompson goes up a half level offensively, right? That would be.

• 1:07:05Speaker 02

  They have to have it.

• 1:07:06Bill Simmons?

  That would be the X factor.

• 1:07:08Speaker 02

  My question, my big question, who is going to help Cade Cunningham? It's the end of the game. They run every single thing through him. Who's going to catch the ball and make a shot when he's double teamed?

• 1:07:18Bill Simmons?

  They're worse off. I watched John Coll, it's not John Collins. I watched it last year. It's not Duran because it feels like teams unlocked how to stop him. It's not Thompson. Duncan Robinson going around screens, he, he wore down as the year went on last year. I have the same concern. I, I'm under. I can't believe I'm under, but I'm under. I think this is like a 45-win team.

• 1:07:41Speaker 02

  John Collins from three, the last three seasons, 37, 40, 41. That's all I want. I'm not handing the ball to John Collins to be like, go do stuff with the ball. Um, all of these concerns are very legitimate concerns. This is a team that really tried to get Austin Reeves and thought they had a real shot at him down to the wire, didn't get him. That was their cap space bullet. They know what they need. They still have all their picks and a bunch of tradable contracts to go out and get that player if they want to buy it. I think that's something you have to consider with this number. All of these concerns were pre-existing and they won 60 games last year and seven playoff games. You can quibble with how they got there and what happens in the first round if Franz doesn't get hurt. So like, none of that is new.

• 1:08:24Speaker 02

  I'm going over because I think the floor of really good defense, tough rebounding, Cade and some more shooting around him is just good enough in the regular season to get that many wins. And, uh, and I think we're over indexing on Duran's failure in the playoffs. Like I think he'll be closer to the guy he was in the regular season, in the regular season, which is what this is about.

• 1:08:47Bill Simmons?

  So I have them at 45 because I think the East is so good. I was just basically subtracting four to five wins for a bunch of different teams.

• 1:08:56Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:08:56Bill Simmons?

  And to me, this is a 50-win team last year that now I have to put it at 45. But I really worry about, uh, the scoring beyond Cade. I thought Tobias was really important for them last year. And then the year before, our guy Malik Beasley.

• 1:09:14Speaker 02

  I know.

• 1:09:14Bill Simmons?

  Was also important for them.

• 1:09:16Speaker 02

  Really important.

• 1:09:16Bill Simmons?

  They just had these wild card scorers and unless it's Isaiah Joe and I'm missing something, I don't know who the wild card scorer is for this team.

• 1:09:23Speaker 02

  Best record in the league above versus above 500 teams last year. Oklahoma City, 36 and 16. Spurs, 35 and 15. Pistons, 34 and 16.

• 1:09:34Bill Simmons?

  Wow. Impressive.

• 1:09:35Speaker 02

  They, they kicked ass, um, in a regular season way. You know that they, I think they had the best record in the NBA on back-to-backs. I think there was something like, uh, 12 and two on.

• 1:09:46Bill Simmons?

  And played well without Cade.

• 1:09:49Speaker 02

  And this is the regular season we're talking about. The conference being deeper, no question. I, I'm not think, saying they're going to win 55 games. I'm just going over on 47 and a half. I think it's too low. Yeah. And the number, it dropped too far because the number was 49 and a half. So I'm not sure what happened. I don't have an answer to the.

• 1:10:05Bill Simmons?

  We know what happened.

• 1:10:06Speaker 02

  Fair question that Zach asked. What, between 49 and a half, how, three weeks ago and 47 and a half today?

• 1:10:11Bill Simmons?

  The Duran thing, I think freaked people out.

• 1:10:12Speaker 02

  Nah.

• 1:10:13Bill Simmons?

  And he's coming back.

• 1:10:14Speaker 02

  That's reading too much into it. I think Zach's absolutely right. We don't need to overdo that or whatever reaction we're going to have.

• 1:10:19Bill Simmons?

  What other reason would there be for the over under to go down?

• 1:10:21Speaker 02

  I don't know.

• 1:10:21Bill Simmons?

  Nothing, nobody got hurt.

• 1:10:23Speaker 02

  48 is a very reasonable number for them. I'm taking the, the over, even though I don't have an answer to the fair question Zach posed. He puts it in the context of, of John Collins. They're not asking John Coll, here's the ball, go do something with it. Who is that guy? I don't have an answer. Here's the ball, guy that's not Cade Cunningham, go do something with it? No answer, but they are good enough to win 48. I think they're hoping it's, I mean, you guys, you asked with Mobley, different phases of his career, but is there another leap there? And you just saw Jalen Brown take a, a very unusual, like late mid-career leap. I don't necessarily think there's a, like a leap, leap for Evan Mobley. I do expect continued, like just he gets a little better at this, a little better at that. And I think part of that process for a Sora Thompson. That's the answer.

• 1:11:07Speaker 02

  Is, is a little more on-ball stuff, not like a mega leap where he's suddenly averaging 18 a game like his brother or whatever. Yeah. But like enough of that when Cade is on the bench that like, that's part of this, part of the solution, not the whole solution.

• 1:11:21Bill Simmons?

  Counter.

• 1:11:26Bill Simmons?

  Playoff teams are playing five feet off him in the playoffs.

• 1:11:29Speaker 02

  It's the playoffs. I'm not like this is about.

• 1:11:32Bill Simmons?

  I'm not expecting any sort of offensive surge from him yet.

• 1:11:36Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:11:38Bill Simmons?

  I'm not a lock.

• 1:11:39Speaker 02

  You're tempting me to do lock this up because I'm.

• 1:11:42Speaker 01

  Zach went over, I went over, you went under.

• 1:11:45Speaker 02

  You know what? F it. Lock it. Detroit over. Lock.

• 1:11:50Bill Simmons?

  Detroit basketball.

• 1:11:53Speaker 02

  It's always good to make, it always is good to make decisions when you're irrationally upset about something.

• 1:11:57Speaker 01

  Zach Troy basketball.

• 1:12:00Bill Simmons?

  I like it. I could see it. Listen, there's five teams who are all in this over under range of forty-five to forty-eight, and we're gonna be wrong about one of them.

• 1:12:10Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:12:10Bill Simmons?

  My biggest fear going under for them is what you laid out before Zach about the trade possibilities. And, you know, Mahoney threw this out last week on my pod, and I've heard it other places too, but could this be a Kyrie team? And what would that look like? Because they have a Corey to put in the trade, they have contracts to put in the trade, like there, it actually is a nice match. And could Cade and Kyrie together?

• 1:12:33Speaker 01

  That's kind of interesting.

• 1:12:35Bill Simmons?

  Would be kind of nice.

• 1:12:36Speaker 02

  Stay with your under. Don't, don't, stay with your under. Own it, eat it, and I'm locking in my over.

• 1:12:42Speaker 01

  Locked it.

• 1:12:44Bill Simmons?

  All right, I want you to buckle up, but then also put the strap over the shoulder buckle up, the double buckle up.

• 1:12:50Speaker 02

  You're telling people to buckle up?

• 1:12:52Speaker 01

  The roller coaster buckle up. It's a roller coaster buckle.

• 1:12:55Bill Simmons?

  Indiana Pacers, forty-four and a half. They're plus two ninety for the division, fifteen and one for the conference, forty-one for the title, minus one eighty-five for the playoffs. To be the one seed, add this bold, Joe House.

• 1:13:11Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:13:12Bill Simmons?

  Eighteen to one. They were nineteen and sixty-three last year and were six and twenty-four in the last thirty games. And yet, in their last sixty-three games, including the playoffs in two thousand twenty-five with a healthy Tyrese Halliburton, they're forty-two and twenty-one.

• 1:13:30Bill Simmons?

  They're eleven deep. They have proven identity, they have a franchise star who's back, they have added Zubats.

• 1:13:40Bill Simmons?

  They added Kelly Oubre. They didn't lose anybody. The big question, Joe House, why isn't this the sleeper in either conference?

• 1:13:51Speaker 01

  Well, I think it is.

• 1:13:52Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 1:13:53Speaker 01

  It was the very first bet that I made as soon as the win totals came out, it opened at forty-three and a half.

• 1:13:59Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 1:14:00Speaker 01

  I took an uncomfortable amount of money and put it down on that. I'm, I'm somewhat surprised to see it only climb by the one game to forty-four and a half. I think everybody is, you know, trying to, um, figure, all of these teams in this class that you're describing here, what, how, if you give Indiana a giant bump, what are you gonna do with, uh, the Toronto Raptors? And what are you gonna do with Atlanta? And what are you gonna do with Detroit? If you give Indiana this enormous leap back up into the upper forties, maybe low fifties, how do you, you know, navigate that? And especially if the East is as tough as we think, I don't give a fuck. This team is absolutely loaded.

• 1:14:43Speaker 01

  I think that they were very intentional with the way that they played out last year in every respect except for the forever befuddling decision to not protect all the way through five in terms of, of the pick they got for Zoo. Other than that, they're, they're, they're right for it. The only.

• 1:15:03Bill Simmons?

  I mean, goddamn, if they had gotten, if they had kept that pick two on top of everything.

• 1:15:07Speaker 01

  Goddamn, they couldn't protect it, they couldn't protect it.

• 1:15:11Bill Simmons?

  Well, what happened, happened, and the bottom line is they have Zoo on this team, who I thought was better two years ago than he was last year before he got traded, but I also think he was hurt.

• 1:15:20Speaker 01

  Fair enough.

• 1:15:21Bill Simmons?

  I think you desperately need somebody like that in the East. And, look, they, you know, Halliburton comes back, the league's trying to build these stars. They have, his first game is against New Orleans, it's not on national TV, anything like that, it's just on League Pass. And I think it's, I think they're just adding it to the fuck you file. I think the Pacers have a giant fuck you file. I think they're mad that they didn't win the title. I think they all feel like they would have if Halliburton hadn't gotten hurt.

• 1:15:53Bill Simmons?

  And I think they're being discounted this year in every conceivable way, they're not being mentioned at all. I'll tell you this, before we get to Zach's take, I have the Knicks or the Pacers, whoever wins that series makes the finals.

• 1:16:05Speaker 02

  There you go.

• 1:16:06Bill Simmons?

  And I'm gonna, I'm gonna decide on Tuesday, but I think the Pacers are really scary. And, uh, and I don't care that Halliburton missed all last year, I think they're gonna be really good. This is an absolute unequivocal lock over forty-four and a half for me. What do you have, Zach?

• 1:16:23Speaker 02

  Well, I can tell you three guys who are not gonna be in the fuck you files of the Indiana Pacers and it's us, because I'm also going over, and House explained very articulately why I went slightly unhappy unders on the Knicks and the Celtics, I'm not the Celtics, I went over on the Celtics, the Knicks and the Sixers. Because I'm, this whole batch of teams I'm going over. Now, I'm going, I'm gonna zag a little bit because I'm not that optimistic as you guys are about Indiana's regular season win total. Mostly because I've seen Tyrese Halliburton play a preseason game and he looked pretty good. I, I do expect some ups and downs as he comes back from an Achilles injury.

• 1:17:01Bill Simmons?

  By the way, he had ups and downs when he was good. Remember, he would regular season, he would kind of go up and down a tiny bit.

• 1:17:07Speaker 02

  And the year they, wait, two years ago when they made the finals, I believe they won fifty games. Nemhard and Neesmith were both injured for a large part of the, they were like five hundred after thirty games or something, and they, then they hit a, uh, so I do think they're gonna be over. I, I, I do wonder if, like, you, you guys are being a little too enthusiastic about their regular season fortunes. But yeah, if they get to the playoffs and they've found that vibe that they had, that rhythm that they had, they are extremely dangerous and nothing about what they did in the playoffs was fluky, even though it involved the greatest run of crunch time shot making probably in the history of basketball by Tyrese Halliburton. I will go over them.

• 1:17:47Bill Simmons?

  I have them at, I'm looking it up.

• 1:17:51Bill Simmons?

  Fifty-two wins.

• 1:17:53Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm not surprised to hear it. I, I am going to bet them at plus two ninety to win the division. So that's why, you know, Cleveland to win the division at plus one twenty-five doesn't move, move you. You have to have something on the Pacers to win the division.

• 1:18:05Speaker 02

  I'm thinking more like forty-seven, forty-eight.

• 1:18:08Bill Simmons?

  That's fine.

• 1:18:09Speaker 01

  It is.

• 1:18:09Speaker 02

  But.

• 1:18:10Bill Simmons?

  Plus two ninety for the division, I like that one as well.

• 1:18:12Speaker 01

  You have to have a small ticket on it if your, if your ceiling is fifty-two.

• 1:18:16Bill Simmons?

  I'll say this too, other than the Knicks starting five, I think this is easily my favorite starting five in the East. Zubats, Siakam, Neesmith, Nemhard and Halliburton.

• 1:18:28Bill Simmons?

  That checks all the boxes for me. I love that starting five.

• 1:18:31Speaker 02

  It's a basketball team.

• 1:18:31Bill Simmons?

  That is like a Bill Simmons basketball team.

• 1:18:33Speaker 01

  It's literally why I have the Raptors at forty-six. I trust this team so much more than I trust the Raptors. I mean, the Raptors are, we was a nice story last season, two and twenty-two against the really good, solid team in the league. I'll take Rick Carlisle in this group that made it to the NBA Finals two years ago.

• 1:18:50Speaker 02

  Sixer's starting five with like a little bit of a word though, Bill.

• 1:18:55Bill Simmons?

  Well, but I, how many times am I gonna see it over the course of a season? I know with the five guys I mentioned, I'm gonna see them for six months. I like the bench too, I still like, I like the Huff Topping combo. I feel like, I do, I, I think that's, that's the night, like Zubats isn't playing tonight, oh, we're gonna play Jay Huff. It's like, okay.

• 1:19:13Speaker 02

  Jay Huff.

• 1:19:14Bill Simmons?

  Jeff's fine.

• 1:19:14Speaker 02

  It sounded like you, it's you pop, you sound like you pop in the oven for, for dinner, like, anyone want that little Huff Topping tonight?

• 1:19:21Bill Simmons?

  You know what it's like, he's like.

• 1:19:21Speaker 02

  Huff Topping is phenomenal.

• 1:19:23Bill Simmons?

  That's a Stouffer's French bed pizza in the, in the freezer, kind of a backdoor combo.

• 1:19:27Speaker 01

  Man, can I make a, a, um, a small entreaty to this group? Can we please get Jay Huff into the dunk contest this upcoming year? Jay Huff wants to be in the goddamn dunk contest. Wait till you see him pregame, what he, what he's capable of. This is an acrobatic as all get out seven footer. He has them all, he has every dunk, he does them in pregame, he goes around, he's just, you know, getting them off. He's a great three-point shooter, the Huff element of the, I don't want to overdo his role in terms of this team, but get Jay Huff into the dunk contest, please.

• 1:19:59Speaker 02

  Can either, can either of you name the winner of last year's dunk contest?

• 1:20:04Speaker 01

  No chance, no.

• 1:20:08Bill Simmons?

  I can't.

• 1:20:08Speaker 01

  No chance.

• 1:20:10Speaker 02

  I believe it was Kishad Johnson from the Miami.

• 1:20:12Bill Simmons?

  I would be able to name the winner of the white guy slam dunk contest if they did that.

• 1:20:16Speaker 01

  Well, Jay Huff is, could be Jay Huff. The odds on favorite.

• 1:20:21Bill Simmons?

  And I'll say with Oubre, who I think is a little bit of a punchy bag sometimes, and he's bounced around, and like Golden State, it didn't work there, and, you know, he's had a lot of cups of coffee in a lot of places.

• 1:20:34Bill Simmons?

  I thought he was really good in the Celtic series. I think he was, he really defended Jalen well, and, and, uh, I thought he was impactful, like that guy.

• 1:20:42Speaker 02

  Toughness.

• 1:20:42Bill Simmons?

  He's a playoff rotation guy, you know, maybe you don't want to play him thirty minutes a game. Obviously TJ is, is still there. As you know, Zach, I've always loved Jarrus Walker, still waiting for him to have his, his moment. And I really like Shepard. I think Shepard's good.

• 1:20:58Speaker 01

  Well, I'll forever have a soft spot in my heart for Shepard because I had great seats for Wizards Pacers games last season. Uh, and we were there early enough for shoot around, and Ben Shepard rolled the ball to my kid and let him take a shot from the sideline.

• 1:21:11Bill Simmons?

  Oh, Ben Shepard.

• 1:21:13Speaker 01

  Bad mother, I love that dude.

• 1:21:14Bill Simmons?

  So are you locking this down?

• 1:21:15Speaker 01

  Lock, it's a lock, it's a lock.

• 1:21:16Speaker 02

  No lock for me, no lock for me.

• 1:21:18Bill Simmons?

  No lock for you?

• 1:21:20Speaker 02

  No lock for me, sorry.

• 1:21:21Bill Simmons?

  You know what else is great about, uh, rooting for the Pacers? It's, this is a team that was in game seven of the NBA Finals and their best player blew out his Achilles on the court.

• 1:21:33Bill Simmons?

  And if you can't root for that team to find redemption in some way, I don't, you don't have a soul and a heart.

• 1:21:38Speaker 02

  Interesting, you're giving me, you're giving me a, a much different version of like twenty-fourteen Spurs, who were on another level as a regular season team, but like the, they use the ultimate heartbreak from the previous year's finals as, as fuel. I like this.

• 1:21:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I, I'm all in on Indiana, I think they're gonna be really good. And I think, anecdotally, I think within the league, I think that's, this is the team, the other players are kind of, kind of want to see what happens with this team.

• 1:22:05Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:22:06Bill Simmons?

  From an upside.

• 1:22:07Speaker 01

  Because, because Tyrese has that respect.

• 1:22:09Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Chicago Bulls, over under twenty-nine and a half, probably the best placed over under of this entire podcast. It's perfect. You could just debate whether they're gonna win twenty-nine or thirty for five hours straight. Ten to one to make the playoffs, last thirty games last year, they were seven and twenty-three, they finished thirty-one and fifty-one overall. New coach, Tiago Splitter. They lost Anthony Simons, they added Caleb Wilson, Nick Claxton, and Norm Powell, and have one of those starting fives that on paper is kind of delightful.

• 1:22:43Bill Simmons?

  Um, big question, Zach. What is the highest possible ceiling?

• 1:22:49Bill Simmons?

  Of a Caleb Wilson rookie season for you?

• 1:22:53Bill Simmons?

  And have you watched him? Have you done any work on him yet?

• 1:22:56Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:22:57Bill Simmons?

  What, in your head, what is he?

• 1:23:00Speaker 02

  I mean, the highest possible ceiling is Rookie of the Year, for sure.

• 1:23:03Bill Simmons?

  What do the stats look like?

• 1:23:07Speaker 02

  Twenty-one, eight and five. I think the shooting efficiency will be a little iffy. But defensively, I mean, he and Guzellis have a chance to combine for four, four blocks a game as forwards, which is pretty rare.

• 1:23:19Bill Simmons?

  There's like a little chemistry thing going on with them already, too. I think those guys are like, let's, let's fucking roll for the next couple of years here.

• 1:23:26Speaker 02

  Let's run. We just get to run. We're gonna run. Everyone's, Giddy's gonna push the ball up the court. Norm's gonna sprint to the three-point line. We're gonna run the wings that they're built to, this team is built to absolutely fly, which is how they played last year and how Splitter's team played in Portland, too.

• 1:23:39Bill Simmons?

  It's shocking that a team that's been as completely incompetent as the Bulls, now they have a new front office, but the GM they had, I think, was in the running for one of the worst of the last 10 years. But really smart moves across the board, right? Nick Claxton, who I don't love, but if he's gonna be on a team, you'd want him on a team like this that's gonna fly up and down. Powell, who maybe he could take or leave on certain teams on this team. They're probably gonna be running offense for him at the end of games, which he loves. And then, uh, Caleb going to this particular city that has been dying for really anything. And, uh, I said this to House and House made a groaning noise like he does when a porterhouse comes out.

• 1:24:24Bill Simmons?

  Caleb Wilson genuinely reminds me of T Mac.

• 1:24:27Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:24:28Bill Simmons?

  I, I feel like he's taller T Mac, eh, eh, in, eh, at UNC. And it was just like, is he KG? What is he? And he's all pieces of different things. And there's gonna be pieces of different players, but he reminds me of T Mac that last Raptors year, when we started to wonder if there was a little more there. It's like, oh, maybe he's not Scottie Pippen. What is this? But he's taller than T Mac. And I, I just think his stroke on the threes is so pure that, uh, I think he's gonna shoot way more threes than I expected. So anyway, I'm all in on him.

• 1:24:59Speaker 02

  Why, why wouldn't he shoot? Why wouldn't he do whatever the hell he wants?

• 1:25:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:02Speaker 02

  He's the future of the franchise. They're not going anywhere this year. But it's interesting, cause I remember during the draft, you would hear scouts be like, well, he's a four. He's gonna, you know, he's gonna do big man stuff in the league. And then people around him kind of pushed back and said, no, he's gonna be like a, a big wing who handles the ball.

• 1:25:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:19Speaker 02

  You know, and, and it looks like he's trending already much more toward that kind of player with the size and athleticism and shot blocking and rim protection of a big man. So all the, all the intrigue is, is well deserved and merited.

• 1:25:34Bill Simmons?

  So I went under because of how good the conference is and because I think this team will be incentivized to be a four to 10 team.

• 1:25:45Bill Simmons?

  I don't think they have, there's 11 teams in the East that all think they can win 45 games and up. And we have 10 playoff spots and the, the Bulls are not gonna be a playoff team. So at some point, they're gonna have to look at each other and be like, all right, let's, let's make sure we don't drop into the bottom three, but we're right around this four, five, six, seven range. And then add one more piece to what they have. I don't love their bench either.

• 1:26:12Bill Simmons?

  It's just a poo poo platter of, of guys that other teams didn't want. Buddy Hield, who's now been on every team in the league. Zach Collins, Akoro, Jalen Smith. I'm just not a huge fan.

• 1:26:24Speaker 02

  Williams is still on the team.

• 1:26:25Bill Simmons?

  So this is a pretty easy either.

• 1:26:26Speaker 02

  I like Jalen Smith as a backup five. I think he and Trey Jones are a really good six and seven off the bench. After that, it's, it's a.

• 1:26:35Bill Simmons?

  I can't get excited for Trey Jones.

• 1:26:36Speaker 02

  Leonard Miller, if, if Leonard Miller, if this preseason thing is real, that's kind of interesting, uh, to say the least. So, you know, I like their bench. A, after that, it's a, it's a giant question mark for sure.

• 1:26:49Bill Simmons?

  Under for me. What do you have?

• 1:26:52Speaker 02

  Uh, under also. And again, surprised that I'm going under on the, the bottom feeders in the East because, you know, again, the tanking rules are supposed to go the other way. But they also have high, uh, sell trade potential with like a Norm Powell, Nick Claxton kind of deal. I just think young and exciting is also often like young and bad.

• 1:27:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:27:12Speaker 02

  Defensively, I think they're gonna be pretty bad. Shooting wise, they're gonna be iffy. So I think we're all excited to watch them, but that doesn't mean they're going to win 30 games.

• 1:27:20Bill Simmons?

  They're gonna have four games this year where we're like, San Antonio lost in Chicago? They'll have four of those and that'll be, and then their fans will love the two guys and Splitter. I thought Splitter did a nice job with Portland last year, so.

• 1:27:34Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:27:34Bill Simmons?

  It's just the East is too good.

• 1:27:36Speaker 02

  It makes more sense for them to do exactly what, what Zach just observed, which is Powell and Claxton. Those are valuable players for some of these teams that are missing stuff like the Sixers.

• 1:27:47Bill Simmons?

  I'm not a sold on Claxton.

• 1:27:48Speaker 02

  Well, I'm just saying, yeah, there are teams that are gonna need a backup, you know? They're gonna need, need good bodies at some point. And Powell, I, I just, I'm surprised there wasn't a bigger market for him, but he makes sense on a different team. They finished the last season 25th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating. Those numbers aren't gonna really improve. They're not gonna be, especially on the defensive side. But super fun to watch. It's an under for me.

• 1:28:17Bill Simmons?

  I like Norm Powell, so I said that, pointing out that I like Norm Powell and I enjoyed having him on the Clippers. I do think he's a two-name guy. Where if you ask teams he's been on, like, what'd you think of Norm Powell? It's like, well, you know, Norm's Norm. I think he's a, I think he's a two-namer.

• 1:28:34Speaker 02

  I couldn't remember in your lexicon what a two-name guy was.

• 1:28:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you know, Norm's Norm. He's just, he's.

• 1:28:40Speaker 02

  I didn't know if that, yeah, I didn't know if that meant you had to say his full name, uh, when referencing him or, or now I know what it is. So I've, now I'm gonna start thinking of two-name guys in my life.

• 1:28:50Bill Simmons?

  How is Zach's writing thing going again? Well, you know, Zach's Zach. He seems happy.

• 1:28:57Speaker 02

  You compared me to Porzingis yesterday in terms of my availability, my finger, my fingers availability.

• 1:29:03Bill Simmons?

  That was, that was a joke. That was a joke on text.

• 1:29:08Bill Simmons?

  Oh, boy. Put your seatbelt on again. We've got the Milwaukee Bucks at 25 and a half.

• 1:29:14Speaker 02

  No, I'm gonna cruise. I'm gonna cruise. I'm gonna park, take the seatbelt off and lay back in the, take, take a little nap in the seat.

• 1:29:21Bill Simmons?

  They are 20 to one to make the playoffs. They went 32 and 50 last year. None of their other odds matter. They don't have their first round pick, just going to either New Orleans or Atlanta. Taylor Jenkins is their new coach.

• 1:29:34Bill Simmons?

  They lost Bobby Portis and the entire Antetokounmpo family.

• 1:29:42Bill Simmons?

  They added Tyler Herro, Brandon Burris, Jaime Jaquez, Kalil Ware, Karis Levert, for some reason. They willingly acquired Karis Levert. I still don't understand that. And Nate Amen.

• 1:29:57Bill Simmons?

  Congrats on all those.

• 1:30:00Bill Simmons?

  My big question, Zach. Was not trading Giannis in the summer of 2025, the single biggest mistake anyone has made this decade, with the exception of the Luca trade?

• 1:30:12Speaker 02

  I'd have to go back and think like, what would the offers have been then? Who, who else was, would have been? I mean, obviously tons of people would have been engaged. Maybe, maybe even earlier than that. I mean, obviously they waited too long and it became this just endless soap opera where we all knew how it was gonna end. And then it ended and they got in.

• 1:30:30Bill Simmons?

  Well, but don't forget about the other part. Instead of trading him, what did they do? They stretched Dame.

• 1:30:38Speaker 02

  Oh, well, that.

• 1:30:39Bill Simmons?

  And added the Myles Turner contract. So it was like a, it was a double murder house.

• 1:30:44Speaker 02

  A triple. That was a triple homicide.

• 1:30:46Bill Simmons?

  It was a triple homicide. We gotta get Briska Hargitay here. She's like, ah, I'm at Jimmy Haslam's house. There's three bodies.

• 1:30:55Speaker 02

  Dame is the third highest paid Buck this year. There you go. Dead body.

• 1:31:00Bill Simmons?

  So he could have been an expiring for them this year and maybe some flexibility.

• 1:31:06Speaker 02

  He's a body in the vacance.

• 1:31:07Bill Simmons?

  Do things. I, the only other big mistakes I had in the vicinity, and I don't think it's as bad as the two I mentioned, the Lakers Westbrook trade, where they also had to get rid of Caruso and a couple of the other guys. Philadelphia not getting Halliburton for Simmons. I'll never forgive them for that. Phoenix's KD trade, just throwing in literally everything. And then, um, it seems to be true that Golden State could have had Caruso for Kaminga

• 1:31:37Bill Simmons?

  in like 23, and I still can't believe they didn't do that.

• 1:31:43Bill Simmons?

  So that

• 1:31:44Speaker 02

  I remember, I remember a lot of Caruso buzz.

• 1:31:46Bill Simmons?

  Next question's for House.

• 1:31:48Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:31:48Bill Simmons?

  Is this the bleakest situation in the league? You have no pick this year. You have a swap next year with Portland. In 2029, you don't have a first round pick. Everyone on your team is a trade machine candidate, except Burris. And maybe Amen. Milwaukee is all about the Brewers and the Packers right now, especially the Brewers. The Trent Turner Lillard decisions. A full cap catastrophe.

• 1:32:14Speaker 01

  The fact that they have to go put on a case and defend the Gary Trent. That's kind of the just reward. That, that is a type of justice for the mismanagement of this franchise over the last half decade.

• 1:32:26Bill Simmons?

  And on top of all this, if Giannis is really good at Miami, there's going to be that too.

• 1:32:30Speaker 01

  Well, he is going to be good at Miami.

• 1:32:32Bill Simmons?

  He plays.

• 1:32:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think he's going to play.

• 1:32:34Bill Simmons?

  So is there a bleaker situation?

• 1:32:36Speaker 01

  No.

• 1:32:36Bill Simmons?

  Would you rather be a fan of every other team in the league than the Milwaukee Bucks?

• 1:32:41Speaker 01

  You could, the Clippers are the only rival for this.

• 1:32:45Speaker 02

  I was going to say, I can think of one that's, that's perhaps in contention for sheer. Like I have to go to parties. Be like, yeah, you know, I don't know. My dad's a Clippers fan, so I became one. That's, I know, I know, it's

• 1:32:59Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, at least with the Bucks, you won the title in 21. Yeah, Clippers are worse. All right, so there may be number two.

• 1:33:04Speaker 02

  Kings?

• 1:33:08Bill Simmons?

  I think Kings, there's so much comedy and tragedy that it just keeps you on your toes.

• 1:33:13Speaker 01

  I feel like the Kings are closer to a turnaround. Like, we're at the very, very beginning with this Bucks team. We're so far away from understanding.

• 1:33:21Bill Simmons?

  Kings Reddit, I go to Kings Reddit. I don't go to a lot of reddits. Kings Reddit, for comedy's sake, when something bad happens, is one of the funniest places on the internet. All of them are standup comedians at this point. It's like, what Alan Alda said in Crimes and Misdemeanors, tragedy is comedy plus time. That's the entire Kings Reddit.

• 1:33:41Speaker 02

  What are the Kings turning around toward?

• 1:33:44Speaker 01

  I don't know. I don't have a good answer for that.

• 1:33:46Bill Simmons?

  At least you get to watch Akoff run pick and roll with Sabonis. That's fun.

• 1:33:50Speaker 01

  That's it. That's the

• 1:33:51Bill Simmons?

  With the Bucks, like, at least you get Burris and at least maybe Hero.

• 1:33:55Speaker 01

  We all do. I just can't believe what a, what a, what a, I can't say what I was going to say.

• 1:34:00Speaker 02

  There's guys, there's guys. I can't sell you on, here's a little Usman Jang, most improved player stock. I can't sell you on Jaime Jaquez Jr., who I would have voted sixth man of the year last year. Khalil Ware, I'm pretty, I'm pretty high on Khalil Ware.

• 1:34:12Speaker 01

  Those are all bodies.

• 1:34:13Bill Simmons?

  That is a, that is a return to sender.

• 1:34:17Speaker 02

  Return to sender Khalil Ware?

• 1:34:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:34:20Speaker 02

  Ryan Rollins is legit good.

• 1:34:22Speaker 01

  He's good.

• 1:34:23Speaker 02

  You're returning Khalil Ware to sender?

• 1:34:26Bill Simmons?

  I'm not a fan.

• 1:34:28Speaker 01

  He's a, he is the great disappearing act.

• 1:34:31Bill Simmons?

  I saw him in person. I might've even been with House.

• 1:34:34Speaker 01

  We, we definitely went to a Heat Celtics game.

• 1:34:36Bill Simmons?

  Went to a Heat game where I forgot he played. And then he came in with five minutes left and was like, could he play? And he played like 20 minutes. We didn't even notice him.

• 1:34:46Bill Simmons?

  Zach, will you rank the trade machine guys for me in this team? I'll give you Turner, Hero, Hakez and Ware. Rank them one to four.

• 1:34:54Speaker 01

  In terms of most value?

• 1:34:56Bill Simmons?

  No, for how likely they are to be traded by February.

• 1:35:01Speaker 01

  Turner, Hero, Hakez, Ware. One, all right, I'll go four Ware. Three Turner, no, three Hakez, two Turner, one Hero is most likely to be traded.

• 1:35:15Bill Simmons?

  And Hero, this is, see, I might have to change my Pistons pick. That's the Piston.

• 1:35:20Speaker 01

  Oh, okay.

• 1:35:22Speaker 02

  No, you can't.

• 1:35:22Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm not, I'm going to keep it. I'm going to keep it. I'm going to honor it, but Hero is the Pistons move.

• 1:35:28Speaker 01

  It's a great move.

• 1:35:28Bill Simmons?

  That's a classic ad that would be perfect for them. Now I don't have to worry about Cade just having to run every single fucking play for two hours. You know?

• 1:35:38Speaker 01

  You really have to have a sit down with Hero though. Like, please, just show a tiny bit of discipline. Four minutes left in the game, you do not have to take two dribbles and shoot. Please, don't do that.

• 1:35:49Bill Simmons?

  There's not a lot of guys who've averaged 20 a game for like five straight years.

• 1:35:52Speaker 02

  Tyler Hero's good.

• 1:35:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, he's good.

• 1:35:54Speaker 02

  And I, I just, I, the reason I would rank him number one is obviously the expiring, but also like the Bucks just being in this position of it doesn't really make any sense for us to splurge on the kind of extension that you Tyler Hero want.

• 1:36:08Bill Simmons?

  Right. And they're a four to 10 team. Well, I'm an under, guys. What do you got?

• 1:36:14Speaker 02

  Under.

• 1:36:15Speaker 01

  Definitely under.

• 1:36:16Speaker 02

  Now, I will say, can we pause for a second? Are you at all concerned that so far we are under on all the bad East teams? Cause that made me pause as I did this. And I was able to justify it team by team and by going under on some of the ones at the top. But I, this will be interesting to see if these teams are really this bad.

• 1:36:35Bill Simmons?

  So I sketched out all the wins to make sure all my wins added up both ways. This is a Cousin Sal trick, cause he's a psychopath. And I had Chicago at 26 wins, Brooklyn at 21 and Milwaukee at 21.

• 1:36:47Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:36:47Bill Simmons?

  So that is basically a minus 55 for those three teams. So now you have to just make up

• 1:36:56Speaker 01

  Allocate the wins.

• 1:36:57Bill Simmons?

  The plus 55 going the other way. And you can figure out how to add it up. But there's some, the South is where there's some, in the old documentary parlance, you have to kill some babies. The documentaries, you make a three hour documentary and you have to cut it down to two. There's just scenes you got to cut.

• 1:37:14Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:37:15Bill Simmons?

  And I feel that way about a couple of those South teams. And I'm just like, ah, man, I hate doing this, but I got to. All right, so we're all under on all of those. We're going to come back with, I think, the hardest to figure out division in the entire NBA. The whatever the hell the South, is it Southeast?

• 1:37:32Speaker 01

  It is the Southeast, yes. It's the Southeast division.

• 1:37:35Bill Simmons?

  And then we also get House's Washington Wizards scouting reporter, tradition of the over under. That is next. All right, last division, we made it. The Orlando Magic at 43 and a half. An insulting over under for them. They were 45 and 37 last year and they got a new coach, Sean Sweeney. They're plus 250 for the division, 41 for the title, minus 165 for the playoffs. The big question, Zach Lowe.

• 1:38:06Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:38:08Bill Simmons?

  When will we officially figure out if Paolo and Franz make sense together? And is it this season?

• 1:38:14Speaker 02

  Oh, it's by February, we're going to know. It's like, unless one of them, as seems to happen every year, game 10 of the season, there's a, some sort of fluke injury in there. We now have 30 more games of no data. But yeah, I think this is the year the rubber meets the road. You're seeing it with Anthony Black not having an extension yet. The team is just too expensive, has too many pieces making too much money, is going to have to make some painful decisions if this doesn't all click into place. And the over under is really very firmly suggesting it is not going to click all into place.

• 1:38:47Bill Simmons?

  And yet they do have a smarter coach, defensive specialist, but I think really, really respected. And I feel like that's going to be worth a couple of wins, House.

• 1:38:57Speaker 02

  I agree.

• 1:38:58Bill Simmons?

  Neither of us were mostly guys. So my big questions are, what if this isn't right with the new coach? And then is Franz going to make it through a season? Would be my, my two big things. I don't mind their bench.

• 1:39:16Bill Simmons?

  I thought Bain was actually pretty good last year.

• 1:39:19Bill Simmons?

  Do you feel like they regret the Bain trade, Zach? If you could do the go back in time two years?

• 1:39:25Speaker 02

  Yes, I think you have to, based on, not, he's played fine. He's been Desmond Bain. It just

• 1:39:31Bill Simmons?

  Kind of over, underestimating the second apron and how dangerous a trade like that was for them, I think, would be the regret, right?

• 1:39:38Speaker 02

  Yeah, you only have so many of those kind of bullets to throw. I, I'm a little more worried about their bench than you are. I mean, I like Anthony Black a lot after that. The Silva's all right, Batz is all right. Jace Richardson's been showing some stuff in the preseason, so that's all right. It's fine.

• 1:39:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's fine. It's a C plus bench.

• 1:39:54Bill Simmons?

  House, where are you looking?

• 1:39:55Speaker 01

  Over.

• 1:39:56Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:39:57Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think that this team, especially Bain, I, I watched Bain, Bain take nights off last year. I mean, there was, and then it was some combination of something going on with that coaching staff and something going on with Paolo and something going on with Bain. Like, they were not all on the same page. And it happened like quickly. It happened early in the season. And it is always with this Orlando team. Can those guys, can Suggs, can they all be healthy for 50 games? Can they, all of those guys be healthy so we can see for sure what this looks like? The playoff run was kind of, you know, okay, good. They give a shit. That's great to see.

• 1:40:41Speaker 01

  It's great to see Paolo actually out there. You know, they, they gave everything they had to Detroit. And I do adhere to what you advanced earlier, which is they would have beat Detroit if, if Franz hadn't gone out. That, I mean, Franz was, is a secret sauce. They paid him to be a secret sauce. I just think that the entire framework of how they approach basketball is going to be changed. I'm over indexing on Sean Sweeney, left hand up. I'm saying it right now. I think it's going to be a revelation and I think they're going to be really good. There's no reason for them to drop out of the top 10 defensively.

• 1:41:19Speaker 01

  And they are not, they haven't been in I don't know how long, a top half of the league offense. With the talent they have, that doesn't make any sense. So I think Sweeney and who he brings along with him, what they install, it's going to be effective. I like this Orlando team. It's an over for me.

• 1:41:35Bill Simmons?

  15 to one on Fanduel for Coach of the Year, Sean Sweeney. I'd like to echo House's thoughts. This seemed like an unhappy, disjointed team last year that wasn't well coached. And kind of survived based on how much talent they had. The Suggs season was weird. I don't know what happened to his three point shooting. I thought his playoff performance and just the heat checks over and over again, when he couldn't make a shot was just bizarre. But also a sign that maybe you don't have a great coaching staff and a good whatever in place. And I'm bullish on the talent. I really do like their starting five. I, I'm actually going over. I think, I think they're in the mid 40s somewhere. And I don't think, even though the conference is tougher, I think they had the year from hell last year.

• 1:42:19Bill Simmons?

  So I'm a little more bullish on them, I think, than, than the majority or the minority.

• 1:42:24Speaker 02

  I mean, we, we barely saw the starting five because of all the injuries. On paper, I agree with you, like, it's an easy over. There's just too much talent here, even in the beefed up East, for this to be basically a 500 team. Given what they've done, when they've been healthy-ish, they tend to win more games than this. And so I'm, I'm going, I'm going over. I, I'm not emphatic about it, but I'm going over. I will say that this would be a team that if it's not going well, you could see an in-season pivot in some crazy direction that messes all, all this up. But I, I think there's just too much talent, new coach, over.

• 1:42:58Bill Simmons?

  I didn't, somehow this isn't in my notes. They have their pick this year or they don't?

• 1:43:03Speaker 02

  I will check now, but they're, they're pretty picked and swapped out.

• 1:43:06Bill Simmons?

  I think, I don't think they have it. Hold on, I'm looking to.

• 1:43:09Speaker 02

  Uh, they do have their pick this year.

• 1:43:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they do have it. Okay.

• 1:43:13Speaker 01

  The one thing to observe.

• 1:43:14Bill Simmons?

  So they could go into four to 10 range if it goes badly.

• 1:43:16Speaker 01

  You remember we were doing Orlando this time last year, the three of us here in Los Angeles, California?

• 1:43:22Bill Simmons?

  We love them.

• 1:43:22Speaker 01

  And it was supposed to be like 50 wins for this team?

• 1:43:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:43:25Speaker 01

  Well, absolutely. Nothing's changed, except for the head coach, and it's 43 and a half now.

• 1:43:30Speaker 02

  I lock, I think I had, I had them as an over lock last year, which didn't go great.

• 1:43:35Speaker 01

  Wasn't really your fault. They kept, kept getting hurt.

• 1:43:40Bill Simmons?

  I'm an over two. I can't lock it because I'm not positive Franz and Palo like are both going to be on the team in February. We'll see what happens. But I do like the coaching higher and, uh, and I think this team should be good. Miami, I accidentally skipped them. Their over under is now 44 and a half. Division plus 155, conference 11 to one, title 30 to one. Playoffs minus 250.

• 1:44:07Bill Simmons?

  Playing plus 160. One seed 11 to one, if you want to get excited about that. Last year they were 43 and 39.

• 1:44:17Bill Simmons?

  They added Giannis and the rest of the Antetokounmpo family and Antetokounmpo family.

• 1:44:24Bill Simmons?

  They had a Bobby Portis. They had a Tim Hardaway Jr.

• 1:44:30Bill Simmons?

  They added the artist formerly known as Klay Thompson, who might be painting again. We'll see.

• 1:44:34Speaker 01

  He's got a boat. The place to park his boat.

• 1:44:38Bill Simmons?

  They lost Hero Powell, Hakez and Ware, who were like four of their best six guys.

• 1:44:44Speaker 02

  You just said Ware returned to sender. Now he's four, one of their six best guys?

• 1:44:48Bill Simmons?

  On paper, it was one of their six best guys. The big question.

• 1:44:53Bill Simmons?

  If I could find it.

• 1:44:56Bill Simmons?

  Can he get one great year out of Giannis, Zach Low? Just one. Just give us one great year.

• 1:45:02Speaker 02

  If you can't, you're really up a creek because you, you made the trade suggesting you should get three or four really good years to great years out. To be honest, yeah, of course you can.

• 1:45:11Bill Simmons?

  I mean, great year. Like he's an MVP candidate the entire year. He's 30 and 11.

• 1:45:16Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:45:16Bill Simmons?

  He plays 68 to 70 games.

• 1:45:20Speaker 02

  Look, I don't think anyone is an MVP candidate. I think Luca is the only one that can still crack the top three. Other than that, we're talking about like, are you in the conversation, which is code for like, could you get fourth or fifth? I think that's where Giannis could get. I don't see him leaping over Shay, uh, Jokic.

• 1:45:37Bill Simmons?

  So they won like 52 games and he was 30 and 11 and played 72 games and got, you know, rejuvenated the franchise. Basically you don't even think he's in that convo because I think he would be.

• 1:45:48Speaker 02

  I think he could get in the conversation, but I, those three guys are so good that you can make up whatever stat you want to make up for them. And they're going to rival whatever line you just gave out for Giannis and their team might win more games, will win more games in most cases.

• 1:46:02Bill Simmons?

  I got asked, if Giannis crashed the 27 finals.

• 1:46:08Bill Simmons?

  What would that do for his legacy?

• 1:46:10Speaker 02

  Oh, it's been a while since the L word came up.

• 1:46:14Bill Simmons?

  I only allowed one legacy segment in each part.

• 1:46:18Bill Simmons?

  How would his legacy shift, Zach?

• 1:46:21Speaker 02

  Uh, it would be a legacy changer for him. Um, and we've seen in the finals, if you get there, you don't know what's going to happen. It's not so predictable. So I, I mean, look, he hasn't had a real playoff run since the title win. And that hasn't been, that's been injuries. That's been injuries to him. It's been injuries to Chris Middleton. It's been other stuff. So yeah, I mean, he is in need of a late career resurgence in the postseason. And I think, you know, there was no perfect spot for him in that regard, given how much you have to give up to get him. But I, I'm an over on the Heat. Uh, I am going to lock the over on the Heat. I think this line is too low. If Giannis plays 65 to 70 games, I just think they're, they're just better than this.

• 1:47:05Speaker 02

  If he doesn't, obviously I will go bust on this, but I'm going over lock.

• 1:47:11Bill Simmons?

  I have Giannis 20th in the pyramid right now.

• 1:47:14Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 1:47:16Speaker 01

  Kind of makes sense.

• 1:47:19Bill Simmons?

  It's right behind Dirk Nowitzki.

• 1:47:23Speaker 01

  He needs to get to another finals.

• 1:47:25Bill Simmons?

  He's right behind Bob Pettit as well, who just passed away sadly. Forgot to do a Bob Pettit thing on my podcast.

• 1:47:32Bill Simmons?

  House, where are you on the Miami Heat?

• 1:47:33Speaker 01

  It's an over. I mean, they, this is out of respect for Spoelstra, out of respect for the franchise. The starting five, um, I absolutely trust is going to be 43 wins out of the, the poo poo platter. That was the roster that we just went through last year for this. That's just Spoh. That's just this Miami team showing up with institutional smarts and continuity and planning. For sure. They had, they reaped the benefit of beating up on the bottom dwellers in the East. But, um, I think Giannis, you want this refreshed, ready to go dominate version of, of Giannis.

• 1:48:15Speaker 01

  With this, this group of players, I think are very complimentary. Um, it was an easy over for me.

• 1:48:23Speaker 02

  Here it comes. Here it comes. You want to do it.

• 1:48:27Bill Simmons?

  I, uh, I did all my Giannis content over and over again during the interminably long Giannis trade saga, including some of the season 14 or later stuff with big guys. And how Moses was the only guy ever to average 20, 10 and 50 plus games. How only LeBron and Mailman averaged 20, 10 and seven plus playoff games.

• 1:48:51Bill Simmons?

  Age 32 guys. We haven't had a 24 and 10 from an age 32 guy in 28 years.

• 1:48:59Bill Simmons?

  Playoffs 20, 10 for 12 plus games. Mailman, Hakeem, Hayes, Kareem and LeBron, that's it. And I was under for most of the summer.

• 1:49:11Bill Simmons?

  But I, I've been, been really impressed by everything I'm reading and seeing.

• 1:49:20Bill Simmons?

  Defensively, they should be a top five team.

• 1:49:25Bill Simmons?

  Offensively, they have to replace the threes that they lost with Hero and Powell. But Detroit made 11 threes a game last year and was, won 60 games. I'm not that worried about that.

• 1:49:37Bill Simmons?

  I do like the Portis part. I didn't love the Klay signing, but I get why they did it.

• 1:49:43Bill Simmons?

  I like Fontecchio, as you know. Um, Wiggins should be able to handle the swings. Bam Giannis is going to be clumsy, but I think the defense will over, overcorrect for that. But I like everything I'm reading with the chemistry and stuff. And I do feel like this is going to be, the more I stare at it and look at it from afar and kind of dread the Heat being good again. It just feels like they're going to get one really good Giannis year here. And I don't know if it's going to be more than one, but they're going to get rejuvenated guy who's ready to like reclaim something. And, uh, along with the coaching staff and everything else, I just, I don't see how this team's not in the high 40s. If, unless Giannis gets hurt again. So I'm not locking it down.

• 1:50:26Bill Simmons?

  But the safe bet, if we're doing this, which is how we should be approaching every team, is that this team should win 48 to 52 games. So I'm over.

• 1:50:35Speaker 02

  You didn't enjoy that, did you?

• 1:50:38Bill Simmons?

  I didn't.

• 1:50:39Speaker 01

  He said all summer, he was down on him, down on him, down on him. We didn't even mention Pelé Larson. Does he think that that guy?

• 1:50:48Bill Simmons?

  I thought that contract was aggressive. Not as aggressive as the Jovic contract, which was just inexplicable as it happened. But at least Pelé Larson, watching him last year, uh, is, he was pretty good. But listen.

• 1:51:01Speaker 02

  No locks? We're all overs? No, I'm the only lock? And by the way, I'm only.

• 1:51:04Bill Simmons?

  I can't do it with the hell stuff with Giannis.

• 1:51:06Speaker 02

  I'm only locking it because I'm, I mean, we need a requisite amount of locks per person. I'm a little short on locks. So I need to load up my Eastern Conference locks.

• 1:51:13Bill Simmons?

  I might by the end of the pod, I might change my mind on whether that's a lock or not for me. But, you know, it goes back to what you said earlier when we were talking about with Dallas with flag and, and Klay together.

• 1:51:26Bill Simmons?

  And it's like, you know, it's really nice having two of the best 30 guys in the league every night, night after night. I have no idea if they're going to fit together. I think the offense is going to be really clumsy. But also if a coach is going to figure it out, they have one of the four or five guys who could unlock it. But I think he's gonna, I think he's gonna have a real energy to him and I like everything I've heard from him. So three overs. This was in the running for hardest one, the Atlanta Hawks, 43 and a half.

• 1:51:55Bill Simmons?

  Playing plus 135, playoffs minus 170, 40 to go in the title. They were 46 and 36 last year, 21 and nine last 30. Big question. House, they feel like they're one move away.

• 1:52:09Bill Simmons?

  What's the move? Does it need to be this season? Can they wait?

• 1:52:15Speaker 01

  Well, I, I loved the Dort and the Wiggins move. So that, those were the moves, I think. I mean, not this team, you have to make a decision about the last 30 games of last year. How real was that? Do you believe that that's really what this team is capable of? Is that of good reflection of the ceiling for this Hawks team? They're still young. They still can put, you know, defensively, is there another level to them? They finished inside the top 10 in defensive rating. That includes a big chunk of the season that Trey Young was on the team and then, and not playing.

• 1:52:51Bill Simmons?

  And it was awkward.

• 1:52:52Speaker 01

  Yes. Um, and they were even inside the top half of the league in offensive rating. So where is there a ceiling coming from exactly?

• 1:53:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they won 46 in a league where 30% of the league tanked the last 11 weeks of the season.

• 1:53:10Speaker 01

  43 and a half is just too low. I, I, um, don't want to get too aggressive with it, but I really like what they did in the, in the off season. And they still have a ton of assets. They have moves to make. And I think that there's another level to Jalen Johnson. Like we're going to start having some all NBA conversations. You know, more, more, not start, but additional all NBA conversations around Jalen Johnson. So I'm, I'm over with this Hawks team.

• 1:53:36Bill Simmons?

  They lost Reese, Shay and Buddy Hield. They added Lou Dort, Kingston Flemings and Aaron Wiggins.

• 1:53:42Speaker 01

  It's very good additions.

• 1:53:43Bill Simmons?

  So on roster, better.

• 1:53:45Speaker 01

  I love their, um, GM too.

• 1:53:48Bill Simmons?

  He's good. The Hawks are smart. I like everything they've done. I even thought Flemings was the right pick, even though I don't love taking a guard that high. But they had to take a swing at one of those guys. I like their bench. They're basically going to have Dort, Wiggins, Flemings, Jacque Landell, Wilson, Eze For, Finney Smith. Like they, they have some depth.

• 1:54:09Bill Simmons?

  I just wonder if this is the team. Like, is this a team that could be in the cat sweepstakes if that ever happens? Is this a Trey Murphy team? Could this be a team that talked itself into Jamal Murray? And said, you know, oh, we'll flip you McCollum, Daniels. We'll take Jamal's backside, like those kind of trades? Zach, are you under or are you under or over?

• 1:54:37Speaker 02

  I am under. Yeah, I'm under.

• 1:54:39Bill Simmons?

  I'm under as well, but I'm like, I couldn't, I'm like a, I'm a hair under.

• 1:54:44Speaker 02

  Under forty-three and a half.

• 1:54:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I'm under. I have them at forty-two or forty-three, somewhere in there.

• 1:54:49Speaker 02

  I gotta have some unders in the East.

• 1:54:51Bill Simmons?

  Me too.

• 1:54:51Speaker 02

  And, um, and this, I think this is a fair line, given that they beat a bunch of bad teams toward the end of last season. Yes, I know that they won twice against the Knicks and nobody else did. I, I just feel like the whole conference is gonna be so much better. And Dort's introduction, I, they have a lot of like equations to solve about their team and their style of play. And what lineups don't have enough shooting and what lineups don't have enough defense? And do they have enough rim protection and all that? I just feel like it's gonna take them a little while to find the right mix. I trust their bench a little bit less than you do, Bill. It's, it's young, it's, it's a little unproven.

• 1:55:31Bill Simmons?

  We like Dort and Wiggins, though.

• 1:55:33Speaker 02

  I, Wiggins is good, uh, you know, edge of four, Newell, Moge is injured. Kispert always seems to fall in and out of the rotations. Landdells, whatever, Finney Smith couldn't, has been moved all around the league after a bad season in Houston. I am going a slight under on the Hawks.

• 1:55:51Bill Simmons?

  I thought I was going over the entire offseason and even until last week. And something doesn't feel right with this team. Like, and, and I agreed with all the moves they make and I liked all the assets they collected. So I'm not, it's not a criticism of the front office. I just, I don't understand how they're gonna kind of figure out this stew of, of players and who's gonna play, not play. Putting Dort on there, like Dort's gonna ha- kinda have to play in crunch time. So now who am I sitting? Am I sitting Dyson Daniels, who I, I gave a hundred million dollars to? Am I sitting Alexander Walker? I don't wanna do that. I'm not sitting Jalen Johnson. So it's probably Daniels. And now does he go sideways?

• 1:56:34Bill Simmons?

  And then if I'm not sitting Daniels and I'm starting Daniels over Dort, do I lose Dort? Dort's like, I'm a fucking champion. Twenty-seven years old, I'm playing for a new contract. So you have that, you have Flemings who wants to play. I don't know, there's some minute stuff that worry me with this team. All right, so two unders and an over for House. Wow, two left. Charlotte Hornets. There's been some action on the under. It was, I think it was thirty-nine and a half, House? Down to thirty-seven and a half, Charlotte.

• 1:57:06Speaker 02

  Yep, yep, for sure. Well, the third of their team is injured right now, that's why.

• 1:57:10Bill Simmons?

  And that's why. They were twenty-nine and eleven in their last forty games last year. Plus one seventy for the playoffs, plus one fifty for the play-in. They also have three firsts next, uh, next year. Their own pick, Miami, top fourteen protected. Dallas, top two protected. And they could easily, if, if they don't like the way the season is going, ease into that four to ten range. The big question. Is it a bad sign or a good sign for the Hornets, Zach? That if I ran an NBA team, I would have played it exactly like the Hornets did the last two years, every single move.

• 1:57:49Speaker 02

  So this is a, this is about you. I'm judging you and whether I think.

• 1:57:52Bill Simmons?

  Is that a bad sign or a good sign for the Hornets and their fans? That I completely agree with every single thing they did.

• 1:57:58Speaker 02

  So you're all in on Christian Anderson and Hana Steinbach?

• 1:58:01Bill Simmons?

  Nah, I didn't love the Christian Anderson one, but I, they, oh, the, oh, Corey, I would have liked more for them. I would have taken Fireland, so I guess I didn't completely agree, cuz I would have taken Fireland.

• 1:58:10Speaker 02

  I think it's, I think it's a good sign. I, objectively, even as someone who likes LaMelo Ball, uh, I, they clearly decided last year was semi-not-that-real and what we're being offered up for him, for Miles Bridges, is just too much to turn down. We'll take a slight step back to take a bigger step forward down the line, see what Brandon Miller can do. See what Con Kinnipal can do. In the meantime, we have like thirteen decent rotation players. That's gonna be helpful in the regular season. So no, I don't think it's a bad sign.

• 1:58:43Bill Simmons?

  The over-under says this is a team that's six wins worse than last year. If any of the top ten fall, so that, that would make them team eleven in the East. If any of those top ten teams fall out for some reason, they're ready to spring in. I would have, if they had been healthy going into the season, I would have gone over and I would have talked myself into bumping Orlando or one of these other ones, but they're not gonna be, doesn't sound like they're gonna have their team for like, probably until early November. Which puts us three weeks in, you could be like two and eight at that point. Now I'm, now I'm already trying to climb back and I just have hard games every day. I just, I worry about it, but, so they had lost LaMelo, Bridges, Josh Green, Trey Mann.

• 1:59:28Bill Simmons?

  They added Nas, Grayson Allen, who I thought was a really sneaky one. O'Neal. I think Steinbach's gonna play right away for them cuz he rebounds. Christian Anderson, we'll see. And then they got Schroder cuz of the rule that he has to be on every team in the league.

• 1:59:41Speaker 02

  And, and Kobe White, not in the offseason, but as the sort of, that's the replacement for LaMelo Ball, basically.

• 1:59:48Bill Simmons?

  Yep. And I think this could be a spoiler team in the second half, but I think that now they're one, like, let's say Khan goes down for a month or Miller on top of this first three weeks. They have no room for inju- for error of injury at all. And I think it's okay if they don't make the playoffs this year.

• 2:00:08Speaker 02

  They didn't make the playoffs last year. They did make the play-in.

• 2:00:11Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 2:00:12Speaker 02

  That, that was the high watermark for LaMelo Ball and.

• 2:00:15Bill Simmons?

  If they're in the four to ten with a chance at one more awesome draft pick on top of all the other draft picks they have, that's where you wanna be.

• 2:00:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, and, and, and the nucleus is young. It's young enough.

• 2:00:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:00:25Speaker 02

  I mean, it's the observations Zach just made, which is, you know, a slight step back this season because you might really have something next season. And I think that's an easy enough thing to sell to the fanbase. You don't wanna rush anybody back. We're too early in this experiment. The only thing that gives me hesitation, any pause whatsoever, is it disrespectful to Charles Lee? Is it disrespectful to Charles Lee to say that this is not, this team won't win thirty-eight games? Cuz Brandon, if Brandon Miller's healthy, he's another guy, another leap guy that has a whole nother sort of chapter, feels like to me. I'm taking the under on the notion that it does make more sense for them. They, the, the asset building has been very impressive.

• 2:01:09Speaker 02

  No reason to, to sort of stop that, bite down hard on anybody right now unless something crazy revealed itself in terms of the trade market during the season. I, thirty-seven doesn't feel that disrespectful, so I'm taking the under. The, the queasiness of taking the under is, is Charles Lee. It's like, hey, Kobe White was pretty goddamn good for the last couple of years. And now we're giving him spacing with Nas Reed as like a true spacing four. That's a powerful potential offense. Maybe they're gonna miss LaMelo's playmaking and pull up three-point shooting. Defensively, we'll see, um, if they can sustain what they did last year. And like, was the Moussa Diabate thing a hundred percent real?

• 2:01:53Speaker 02

  Or now people know like, all right, this guy's a menace on the glass, like, we really have to be ready for this guy. And is, is that center position between him and Kalkbrenner and whatever they do beyond that, is that quite enough?

• 2:02:05Bill Simmons?

  Steinbach.

• 2:02:05Speaker 02

  I am going under on Charlotte in a, in a stronger East this year.

• 2:02:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Well, you knew I would do everything I possibly could to talk myself into the over despite the injuries start the year. I kept coming back to this and it was something, it was a stat I gave in my podcast last week about how they made sixteen point two threes a game last year, which led the league. The, their top six guys that they have this year, if you include Grayson Allen. Their top six guys would all average sixteen point two. And the thing I keep coming back to is if they're at eighteen made threes a game just for the entire season, how is that team gonna go thirty-seven and forty-five?

• 2:02:51Speaker 02

  Well, someone's gotta create those threes, right? I mean, that was, that was a lot of LaMelo's passing last year that they don't quite have.

• 2:02:57Bill Simmons?

  True.

• 2:03:00Speaker 02

  They also have to have the making. The making is important. They, they shut the lights out last season. They were incredible. On the other hand, Nas changes the team's entire spacing configuration and is a maker, for sure. So yeah, I see the math.

• 2:03:13Bill Simmons?

  I'm going just a whiff over.

• 2:03:16Speaker 02

  You're allowed.

• 2:03:17Bill Simmons?

  Thirty-eight and forty-four, thirty-nine and forty-three. I think they're the eleven team in the East. And what's interesting is down the stretch, if, you know, it's like, oh shit, we're probably not even gonna make the play-in. We're five games behind the ten seed or whatever. They're still gonna be incentivized to try to win games cuz they're gonna be in that four to ten range anyway. Who cares? So, uh, slight over. And then I wonder if there's a little bit of an overreaction to all the injuries where it's like, oh, you can't take that and they're injured. The price is better now. It's at a discount. This was thirty-nine and a half all summer.

• 2:03:49Speaker 02

  Right.

• 2:03:50Bill Simmons?

  And now I'm getting, and I, I might have gone under at the thirty-nine and a half, but I'm gonna go over now, so. Plus, we need a disagree. Okay, here we go.

• 2:03:56Speaker 02

  It's like a, it's like a half under in, in spirit.

• 2:03:59Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 2:04:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's just, it's just the injury stuff. If they have to wait fifteen games or, or twenty games and they come out of the, shoot, you know, five and thirteen because of that.

• 2:04:13Bill Simmons?

  Buckle up again, because we have arrived at the Washington Wizards. Joe House's favorite team, they're over under is 34 and a half. 14-1 for the division, plus 310 for the playoffs, plus 220 for the play in. Last year, they were 3 and 27 in their last 30. It was a complete disgrace to basketball. 17 and 65 for the year. And the big question, House, how many games will Trey Young and Anthony Davis play together?

• 2:04:43Speaker 01

  I have no goddamn idea.

• 2:04:45Bill Simmons?

  What's your, what's your bet your life number? Zach hates when people bet their life.

• 2:04:48Speaker 01

  Bet my life? I don't want to bet my life.

• 2:04:50Bill Simmons?

  Bet your life, bet your life right now.

• 2:04:52Speaker 01

  On Trey Young and Anthony Davis?

• 2:04:53Bill Simmons?

  Bet your life.

• 2:04:53Speaker 01

  Anthony Davis sat games out because of a banged up finger. Like, a guy who sits out because of finger injury? I don't want to bet my life on that.

• 2:05:01Bill Simmons?

  We should mention when Anthony Davis got voted into the NBA top 75 all time.

• 2:05:07Speaker 01

  This is true, this is true.

• 2:05:09Bill Simmons?

  House was so upset, he sent me a picture of all of these candy bars that were all eaten. It was the wrappers of like Kit Kat bars or Thousand Island bars.

• 2:05:17Speaker 01

  It was a giant collection of the Halloween, yeah, it was. It was mainly $100,000, yeah, 100 grand bars, yeah.

• 2:05:23Bill Simmons?

  And he was like, I'm so upset about this Anthony Davis thing. I ate all five of these candy bars. And it was just the wrappers.

• 2:05:29Speaker 01

  Did do it.

• 2:05:29Bill Simmons?

  And now he's on your team.

• 2:05:30Speaker 01

  I was grief eating. I was grief eating candy bars. It did upset me.

• 2:05:35Speaker 02

  Playing for a contract, kind of, Anthony Davis?

• 2:05:37Speaker 01

  Not just kind of, he really is. He's really playing for a contract.

• 2:05:41Bill Simmons?

  Honestly, he's playing for the player option. He's gonna opt into next year, isn't he?

• 2:05:46Speaker 01

  I expect him to, but it depends on, you know, somebody steps up.

• 2:05:50Bill Simmons?

  Who's giving Anthony Davis $50 million a year next year? That would be insane.

• 2:05:56Speaker 01

  I don't think it would be insane.

• 2:05:57Speaker 02

  I have nothing to add.

• 2:05:58Speaker 01

  Let's see.

• 2:05:58Bill Simmons?

  He's 33 years old.

• 2:06:00Speaker 01

  Let's see what happens over these next.

• 2:06:01Bill Simmons?

  He's played 277 games since the 2020 finals.

• 2:06:04Speaker 01

  Doesn't seem like a lot.

• 2:06:05Bill Simmons?

  45 a year.

• 2:06:08Speaker 01

  Not optimal.

• 2:06:09Bill Simmons?

  He's at 30K combined minutes, which is almost 20K less than KD. Trey Young's career stats are kind of fascinating to go through his basketball reference. It's like just averaging 25 and 10 for an entire career.

• 2:06:26Speaker 01

  There aren't a lot of guys who've done that.

• 2:06:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's impressive. So you added DeBansa, you added another one of your favorites, DeAndre Ayton.

• 2:06:36Speaker 01

  At 8 million bucks or 9 million bucks, that's a valuable asset. Go around the league and look up backup centers across the league.

• 2:06:43Bill Simmons?

  You had a Trey Mann as well. You had Carrington admit that the team didn't try last year.

• 2:06:49Speaker 02

  That was great. I enjoyed, I really enjoyed that.

• 2:06:52Speaker 01

  He told the truth.

• 2:06:53Bill Simmons?

  So you have Davis and Sar together, the twin towers, DeBansa, George, who I like, Trey Young, Kula Bali, who is in the running for worst offensive player, who actually takes shots in the league.

• 2:07:04Speaker 01

  He's dying to, for an extension, dying for one.

• 2:07:07Bill Simmons?

  Trey Johnson, did we like him last year at all or no?

• 2:07:09Speaker 01

  It's impossible to have, make any judgment about Trey Johnson.

• 2:07:13Bill Simmons?

  Carrington, you loved Riley.

• 2:07:16Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's what I was gonna say. We're, we're, we're gonna give it to Will Riley.

• 2:07:19Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 2:07:20Bill Simmons?

  You have the other champagne.

• 2:07:22Speaker 01

  And, and, and they're.

• 2:07:23Bill Simmons?

  He's pretty good.

• 2:07:23Speaker 01

  He's getting run? Yes.

• 2:07:26Bill Simmons?

  You have the artist formerly known as Chris Middleton?

• 2:07:29Speaker 01

  Another veteran presence in the locker room.

• 2:07:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so there's some things.

• 2:07:32Speaker 01

  He chose Washington. He didn't have to come back to Washington, he chose it.

• 2:07:35Bill Simmons?

  What is the buzz on the city right now? Do you want to give us a little monologue?

• 2:07:38Speaker 01

  It's a, it's a, an amazing moment in Washington. First of all, the hockey season started already. I guess they play 117 games in hockey now and it started in September.

• 2:07:49Bill Simmons?

  Up to 84, yeah.

• 2:07:51Speaker 01

  I have no idea why the, but they're home hockey games. And so the Capitals have, over the last 20 plus years, been the dominant team of interest. They sell out every single game. They've been the most consistent, good team. And so you take that, that version of it, the stadium is going through a renovation. They're two thirds of the way through. They decided to keep both the Wizards and the Caps in the city. Thank you to the Leoneses family. They threatened to go off to Virginia. They kept, and the city and the monumental ownership group seeing eye to eye. Everybody, it's a kumbaya moment and it's great to go downtown and have the lively atmosphere.

• 2:08:33Speaker 01

  The buzz for this Washington Wizards team is through the roof. Do you understand that everybody anticipated that AJ DeBansa was gonna be the number one overall pick? And they still got 5,000 people to go to a theater downtown for the announcement, for the, for a draft party? Just spontaneous, people wanted to go downtown.

• 2:08:55Bill Simmons?

  Music right now.

• 2:08:59Speaker 01

  And celebrate, because this is what happens when your team is fucking terrible for 10 years. It's a basketball city, Washington DC, with a great history, a great lineage, tons of talent through the high school and collegiate ranks. And to have competitive basketball, it's, it's gonna be a revelation. We want to see a team that comes out and tries and they have a bunch of kids whose heads all seem to be in the same place. This team was together for the, the entire team came out to Las Vegas. They played together, practiced together in Las Vegas, and then the whole team, Trey Young and Anthony Davis, they didn't have to do this, went to Los Angeles.

• 2:09:41Speaker 01

  And the whole team practiced together in Los Angeles. It's the same page, one vision, one mission, 38 win team.

• 2:09:50Speaker 02

  I, I have, I have goosebumps here. I mean, I'm, House is ready to run through a wall for this team.

• 2:09:56Speaker 01

  Who doesn't like to see their team try to win basketball games?

• 2:10:00Bill Simmons?

  I was a hard under, but now I'm wavering.

• 2:10:04Speaker 01

  Now I think they might be a 55 win team.

• 2:10:06Speaker 02

  No, no.

• 2:10:07Speaker 01

  We were, we have to temper our expectations, but it's just so refreshing. And, and people in Washington really do deserve winning basketball. The total at 30, we've seen some 33 and a halves. What we're doing from the FanDuel Sportsbook is 34 and a half. Obviously, I'm over.

• 2:10:26Bill Simmons?

  He talked himself into the Trey Young extension in about five minutes.

• 2:10:31Speaker 01

  They were going to pay him. They paid him a grotesque amount. They overpaid him in, in terms and in dollars. But they needed a point guard for this thing this year to work. So it was a grotesque overpay for a point guard. They believe Travis Schlenk is in Washington. He went from Atlanta, where he had.

• 2:10:54Bill Simmons?

  He did great.

• 2:10:55Speaker 01

  He, he didn't do, he did fine.

• 2:10:57Bill Simmons?

  Killed it.

• 2:10:58Speaker 01

  Did fine.

• 2:10:59Bill Simmons?

  Did fine.

• 2:11:00Speaker 01

  Did fine.

• 2:11:01Bill Simmons?

  Did fine. He was in the office every day.

• 2:11:02Speaker 01

  They, they made it to the.

• 2:11:04Bill Simmons?

  Didn't have any scandals.

• 2:11:06Speaker 01

  Ask a New York fan how they feel about Trey Young. That's because of that Atlanta team that was built that way. Fuck Trey Young. Where'd that come from? They succeeded. They were not.

• 2:11:18Bill Simmons?

  I love this.

• 2:11:19Speaker 01

  They did succeed.

• 2:11:20Speaker 02

  That was six years ago. That was five years ago.

• 2:11:23Bill Simmons?

  We're all wearing fucking masks.

• 2:11:24Speaker 01

  Yeah. Oh, you're, you're trying to make fun of Travis Schlenk. They built a team where New York was motivated to say, fuck Trey Young. Okay, fine, great.

• 2:11:33Bill Simmons?

  You know, to be fair, the reason I made fun of Travis Schlenk was because he was terrible and got fired.

• 2:11:39Speaker 02

  Jesus.

• 2:11:41Bill Simmons?

  I mean, to be fair.

• 2:11:42Speaker 02

  Travis is, Travis is good. I will say that.

• 2:11:45Bill Simmons?

  You think, you like Travis?

• 2:11:47Speaker 02

  I think he's good. I think he's smart. And I think some of the decisions that were made there that undid that team were not entirely his.

• 2:11:54Speaker 01

  Also, new ownership group in Atlanta. Not the same ownership.

• 2:11:57Bill Simmons?

  I'll revise my statement. A lot of the moves made under the tutelage of Travis Schlenk were abominable.

• 2:12:04Speaker 01

  Supervision, purview.

• 2:12:07Bill Simmons?

  Zach, are you under or over?

• 2:12:10Speaker 02

  I, I'm still recovering from.

• 2:12:12Bill Simmons?

  You didn't realize it was gonna be this emotional. I thought he was gonna start talking about the Baltimore Bullets and Gus Johnson and Wes Unseld and Jack Maron.

• 2:12:20Speaker 01

  You have to go that far back to find a winning basketball tradition.

• 2:12:23Speaker 02

  Boya paranoia. I mean, I didn't know where, what else was gonna come up.

• 2:12:27Speaker 01

  R.I.P. Mike Sweeney.

• 2:12:29Bill Simmons?

  Stevie Blake and Maryland.

• 2:12:32Speaker 01

  Some of the greats. Steve Francis of Maryland.

• 2:12:34Speaker 02

  I do, look, Trey Young is, is, is Trey Young the most underrated passer in the history of the league? Like, people don't think of him as a passing genius because he holds the ball out and he monopolizes it and he's passing mostly to get assists. Other players play like that too. For a little guy, he's one of the best passers ever for a little guy. All that said, I simply could not look at this whole picture, all of it. The history, the youth, the injuries and availability, the, it doesn't seem like Anthony Davis has been super psyched to be a Washington Wizard and not get a contract extension. I can't look at all of that in a very strong top to bottom Eastern Conference and say 35 wins.

• 2:13:19Speaker 02

  I'm going under. I'd see the talent. If they got 70 games out of Trey and AD or 60 combined games or 55, I could see an over for sure because they just had so much stability on both ends. Although I do think the Davis Sar thing is gonna need some ironing out on both ends of the floor. I just, I just can't trust these guys to win 35 games. I'm sorry.

• 2:13:42Speaker 01

  Very fair, very fair.

• 2:13:44Bill Simmons?

  We did 13 Going on 30 on the Rewatchables a couple of weeks ago. And Julie and I were making jokes about Mark Ruffalo, who clearly is on autopilot for most of the movie and has a look on his face like, my agent told me this movie would be a good idea, but I wish I wasn't here. Peaking in the thriller scene when they have to do a thriller dance and you could just see him be like, I thought I was gonna win an Oscar by now, doing thriller in a Jennifer Garner rom com. That's how Anthony Davis has felt for about six months.

• 2:14:13Speaker 01

  No, I don't agree with that.

• 2:14:16Bill Simmons?

  They're like, Anthony, do the thriller dance. He's like, looking over at Rich Paul to see if he can, can I? I gotta, I gotta, all right. I don't think this will be their team in February, despite your objections to this. Because if it was, they would have picked up the Anthony Davis extension and given him an extra year, and they did not. So that makes me think they're trying to keep optionality each way. And as we've discussed now 20 times in the pod, the conference is too good. And there's gonna have to be a couple of teams that aren't good. I only have four teams under 38 wins in the East.

• 2:14:52Bill Simmons?

  That includes Charlotte that I had at 38. So I have Washington, Chicago, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, all under. And I have Washington somewhere between 32 and 34 wins. I'll give you 34, just to be fun. It is worth mentioning that Trey Young has not been a successful regular season player the last few years. And he's somebody that teams relentlessly and delightedly attack on defense like it's their job.

• 2:15:19Speaker 01

  If you're going glass half empty, I think it's fair to ask out loud. Atlanta had a pretty nice young core. And how come Trey Young couldn't figure it out? How come Quinn Snyder and Trey Young couldn't get on the same page with a nice young core? Why wasn't he a facilitator there?

• 2:15:38Bill Simmons?

  Perfect for.

• 2:15:39Speaker 01

  Yeah. He should have, he could have been, should have been perfect for. Why is that going to work in Washington?

• 2:15:45Speaker 02

  There's, there's, I mean, it's been so long since there was any glass at all. The glass got poured into the blue reflecting pool years and years ago. And I, I just can't, I can't get to, I can't get to 35.

• 2:15:58Bill Simmons?

  I have some extra news for you.

• 2:15:59Speaker 01

  I'm listening.

• 2:16:01Bill Simmons?

  This is a lock for me, under 30.

• 2:16:04Speaker 01

  That's hard, that's hurtful. Under 34 and a half?

• 2:16:08Bill Simmons?

  Honestly, this is starting. I think this number is a miracle.

• 2:16:11Speaker 01

  I'm going to send you something.

• 2:16:12Bill Simmons?

  Why is this team going to win 35 games? Anthony Davis plays 40 games a year.

• 2:16:17Speaker 01

  They have the number one overall.

• 2:16:18Bill Simmons?

  Trey Young, who Atlanta is like, please take him.

• 2:16:21Speaker 01

  Number one overall draft pick in the entire league.

• 2:16:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. I watched them at BYU last year. They lost around, what did they lose, around one or round two? I can't even remember.

• 2:16:29Speaker 02

  This is beginning to feel like one of those things where you, you, you almost bet, like emotionally, you almost bet against the team you're cheering for so that you win either way. You win if they win in your heart, you win money if that, not that I bet.

• 2:16:44Bill Simmons?

  But House didn't do that. He did the opposite.

• 2:16:46Speaker 02

  But no, but now, having taken the under, my heart wants House to win this because this has been such, this is a borderline roast of Joe House and the Wizards now. And my heart is, is now set on, I'd like him to be happy. I'd like him to claim victory here. I don't think he will, though. I'm, I'm pretty confident in my under.

• 2:17:04Bill Simmons?

  Play 52 games against the East and be underdogs in like 42 of them. 44 of them.

• 2:17:12Speaker 01

  The most sober assessment of this, all hyperbole and joking aside, let's get these rotations figured out. I mean, because the, who's the, who's going to create shots from the second unit? There's a whole bunch of things to be revealed.

• 2:17:26Bill Simmons?

  Guys who are like, I'd love to take a lot of shots tonight, please.

• 2:17:29Speaker 01

  Trey Johnson is one of them. Will Riley is one of them. Keyshawn George is one of them. Yeah. Sar, Howard Sar, and, and I mean, Zach asked it, but it's a lot of pressure on the coaching staff. It's a lot of pressure.

• 2:17:42Bill Simmons?

  And that was one of the reasons I have a lock for this. I thought the Wizards coach was pretty terrible.

• 2:17:48Speaker 01

  It's impossible to know whether or not he's terrible. This is the first time that we're going to see him with the, a mandate to go try and win basketball games. Who knows how Brian?

• 2:17:58Bill Simmons?

  You've been my friend since 1988, so I'm not going to dig through my texts where you told me that, that you maybe weren't a fan of the coaching the last couple of years with this guy.

• 2:18:09Speaker 01

  Well, I.

• 2:18:10Bill Simmons?

  He has a name. His name's Brian Keith.

• 2:18:12Speaker 01

  It is Brian Keith.

• 2:18:14Bill Simmons?

  Is Brian Keith the coach of the year?

• 2:18:17Speaker 01

  Coach of what year?

• 2:18:19Bill Simmons?

  One year from now.

• 2:18:20Speaker 01

  Oh, is he the coach in one year? I don't want to say.

• 2:18:25Speaker 02

  Maybe that, maybe that, if they, if Joe House wins this, he is. If you and I win, Bill, he's not, maybe. Maybe the over under is the answer to that question.

• 2:18:35Bill Simmons?

  Fair. I hope I'm wrong. I feel bad about locking it. I'm sorry. I just can't believe, this was one of the over unders I couldn't believe. It's like 35 wins. This is 35 wins, basically projecting that every positive thing possible could happen. You could talk me into like 36 wins. And that's Davis playing like 70 games. Trey Young suddenly being like, you know, a leader offensively, which he, which he just wasn't in Atlanta forever.

• 2:19:04Speaker 01

  The hard thing is it's, it's 10 more wins than Brooklyn. It's 10 more wins than Brooklyn? This roster is 10 wins better than the Brooklyn roster?

• 2:19:13Bill Simmons?

  And I have real defensive questions, too.

• 2:19:16Speaker 01

  I know. I get it. Sar and Davis should be pretty, A.J. DeBansa, that is where you're going to start seeing the steals and blocks of that guy. In fact, you know, just get ready to start betting steals and blocks, DeBansa. Those, that's my player prop recommendation for the season.

• 2:19:34Bill Simmons?

  The reason I, I vacillated on this before I set on the lock, and they're going to be that four to 10 range. And I think there's going to be a lot of distance between them, the 11th playoff team, or they, you know, 10, 11. So they might actually care about the last couple of weeks because why not? You know? It's like, we, we might, we're in the range you need to be anyway. All right. The recap, last chance to lock something down. Knicks, under 51 and a half. All three of us agreed on that. No sign of disrespect to the Knicks because we think they are one of the, the handful of teams that can win the finals. Celtics, over 51 and a half. House and I locked it down. Zach did not, but he has the over.

• 2:20:16Bill Simmons?

  Philadelphia, 49 and a half. Under, under for me and Zach, over for House. Toronto, 46 and a half. Over, over for me and Zach, under for House. Brooklyn, 24 and a half. Three unders and yet no locks. Nobody wants to lock this?

• 2:20:38Speaker 02

  It's too low.

• 2:20:39Bill Simmons?

  Okay. Cleveland Cavaliers, 48 and a half. Three overs, Zach locked it. Detroit, 47 and a half. Confusing. I went slightly under. Zach went over with a lock. House went over. Indiana, 44 and a half. Sure you don't want to lock this, Zach?

• 2:20:58Speaker 02

  Nope.

• 2:20:58Bill Simmons?

  Try lock. Triple lock?

• 2:21:01Speaker 02

  No try lock.

• 2:21:02Bill Simmons?

  All right. House and I are locking that one down. Three overs though. Chicago, 29 and a half, three unders.

• 2:21:06Speaker 01

  Let me, I want to intervene.

• 2:21:08Bill Simmons?

  Yep.

• 2:21:08Speaker 01

  I want to lock in that Chicago under.

• 2:21:12Bill Simmons?

  Tasty.

• 2:21:13Speaker 01

  Yeah. I'm going to get on that. I want to make sure I have seven locks. I need an odd number of locks.

• 2:21:19Bill Simmons?

  Now you're making me jealous that I should have locked it.

• 2:21:22Speaker 01

  It's not too late.

• 2:21:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Why are they going to win 30 games?

• 2:21:27Speaker 01

  If I have Washington winning 35 or 36 games and Chicago can't win 30, how about that? Can't have it.

• 2:21:35Bill Simmons?

  I'm going to stay with it. Milwaukee, 25 and a half, three unders for us. Miami, 44 and a half. Zach and I have locked this down and House has not. Orlando, 43 and a half, three overs. Atlanta, 43 and a half. Under, under for me and Zach, over for House. That seems to be the most disagreement.

• 2:21:58Speaker 02

  I'm going to double down on the disagreement only, I, I want to have an under lock. I'm going to lock Atlanta under 43 and a half.

• 2:22:04Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 2:22:06Bill Simmons?

  Charlotte, over for me. 37 and a half. You guys went under. Washington, 34 and a half. I locked it down as an under. Zach went under, House went over. And that's what we had. Quick question. What is the highest win total in the East, do you think?

• 2:22:29Speaker 02

  I'll go 54.

• 2:22:33Bill Simmons?

  Wow. I had 54. I had the Celtics at 54. I think they're going to be the one seed.

• 2:22:38Speaker 01

  I agree that it's the Celtics and I thought they were just going to win 56 again. I, I, re-racking and allocating wins and all the rest of it.

• 2:22:47Bill Simmons?

  And what do you think the lowest win total will be in either conference? Do you think we'll get in the teens with anybody with these new rules?

• 2:22:57Speaker 02

  I don't, I mean, I, I, I picked Sacramento over 20 and a half. So I have nobody in the teens. I think 22, 23, something like that would be the lowest one.

• 2:23:09Bill Simmons?

  I think somebody gets 20 in the East. Somebody goes 20 and 62.

• 2:23:13Speaker 01

  I could see the Clippers ending up around 20.

• 2:23:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Ty Low leaves in like December. It's like Ty Low has had enough. He's resigned.

• 2:23:24Speaker 02

  There's no place he'd rather be.

• 2:23:26Bill Simmons?

  Than the Clippers?

• 2:23:27Speaker 01

  He said that. He did say at the press conference, there's no place he'd rather be.

• 2:23:30Speaker 02

  I could be Hawaii at a beachside bar, sipping a margarita. No, no, no. I want to coach Brandon, Brandon Ingram's partially torn Achilles.

• 2:23:41Bill Simmons?

  Niederhauser. He loves Niederhauser.

• 2:23:43Speaker 01

  Who, who doesn't?

• 2:23:44Bill Simmons?

  He loves coaching Brook Lopez in year 38. Well, there was no place I would rather be than with you guys doing over unders for, I don't know, this was five hours. Zach Lowe, pleasure as always. Great to see you. Joe House, we did it.

• 2:23:58Speaker 01

  Amazing.

• 2:23:58Bill Simmons?

  Thanks to Chris this time, plus Kahal and Eduardo and Jack Wilson back at Spotify. Zach, when's your next podcast?

• 2:24:05Speaker 02

  Thursday, we have Stan Van Gundy and then we're going to have a little mini Lakers preview with Dan Woike.

• 2:24:11Bill Simmons?

  Oh, nice.

• 2:24:11Speaker 01

  That's great.

• 2:24:12Bill Simmons?

  And then your fingers are working this week, too.

• 2:24:15Speaker 02

  They are. We got League Pass rankings coming out in dribs and drabs. I think we're going to do five parts, six teams a day, spread out till tip off. I can't remember the exact schedule.

• 2:24:25Speaker 01

  Great.

• 2:24:26Bill Simmons?

  Congrats on getting the fingers going. Don't forget, new rewatch.

• 2:24:29Speaker 02

  Any inspiration? You feeling any?

• 2:24:31Bill Simmons?

  Little bit. I thought, I loved your first post. I thought it was inspiring, talking about writing forces you to interrogate things a little bit harder. I think about that constantly. I feel like I'm not interrogating things enough, like the Wizards, 34 and a half over under. I feel like if I, if my fingers are really working, I would have interrogated that a lot more violently. House, pleasure.

• 2:24:54Speaker 01

  Thank you. We'll be together.

• 2:24:55Bill Simmons?

  Thanks, everybody. I'll be back Thursday on this podcast as well. See you, Zach.