Pod Insights The Bill Simmons Podcast NBA Trade Deadline Reactions and Super Bowl Picks With Zach Lowe and Joe House About this episode The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Zach Lowe LIVE on Netflix to react to the NBA trade deadline moves (0:34). Then, Joe House joins, and he and Bill make their Ringer 107 picks for Super Bowl LX (01:25:54).
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Zach Lowe and Joe House
Producers: Chia Hao Tat, Eduardo Ocampo, and Chris Wohlers
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Transcript 24,439 words · 6 speakers
Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
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2:04 Bill Simmons? Live on Netflix, the Bill Simmons Podcast, Zach Lowe is here. Trade deadline. I can't believe Giannis got traded. Oh, no, it was Cole Anthony.
2:14 Speaker 04 Easy, easy. Don't fool people. This is Netflix. We gotta behave.
2:18 Bill Simmons? It was Cole Anthony. Did you think, at what point this week did you think Giannis was actually getting traded? Was there ever a point?
2:25 Speaker 04 It was always 50/50 at best. Every team that was in it. Maybe save for just one was constantly saying, you know, we're kind of skeptical. They're really going to move them. We'll put it at 80, 20, 75, 25 that they keep them in this carries into the summer. I took 80, 20 and I unilaterally went to 50, 50 because the toothpaste is just so far out of the tube that I thought, you know, maybe they'll just surrender to the inevitability of it and get an offer that's good enough. But it looks like with an hour to go and all the reporting that we'll revisit all this in June. So I was never super confident. I was, I was more on high alert than most executives that were in it, I think.
3:06 Bill Simmons? So I want to do a segment right now before we get into some of the trades that happened. The I have no idea what the hell you're doing rankings.
3:15 Speaker 04 See, it couldn't be more exciting for you. Just go right, go right to the confusing teams.
3:20 Bill Simmons? Yeah, because we're, the trade deadline is an hour away. There might be some stuff that happens at noon. The I have no idea what you're doing rankings.
3:27 Speaker 04 Okay.
3:28 Bill Simmons? I have Yanis number one. Yanis, what are you doing? Get out of Dodge. You haven't had a meaningful playoff moment since 2022. Game seven against the Celtics when Grant Williams shot your heart out. 2022. How old was your daughter in May 2022?
3:49 Speaker 04 Seven.
3:51 Bill Simmons? 2022. What are you doing, Yanis? You just, you took an entire Olympic cycle of playoffs that you've wasted and you could have changed it this year and all you had to do was say, I demand a trade. I've run my course. I'm out. Please trade me. I'd like to go. Here's my list of teams. I want to be traded by whatever today's date is. And he kind of half-assed passive aggressive bit and I, I think he's in a worse spot now. He just lost another postseason. He could have been back in time for April. He could have been back in time with a really good team. And I think he had enough leverage with them that he could have bullied them, I think, a little bit. And I just feel like we're reenacting KG.
4:32 Bill Simmons? The difference is KG in the mid 2000s, the best that had ever happened to him was the Western Finals, right? And that was like the one really fun KG moment. Giannis won the title. But that's yet another reason he should have pushed out. He gave them the title. Now it's time to go. And you just wasted another postseason.
4:50 Speaker 04 Or does that decrease your personal urgency because you've achieved your goal? Your family loves Milwaukee. He's spoken quite openly about how leaving would be hard. He's put down roots. He lives right next door to his mom, et cetera, et cetera. Does that decrease his urgency to really hit the nuclear? But I mean, he did. I don't remember exactly what the Shams Charania language was, but it's has been telling the Bucks for months that it's time to part ways. I mean, to me, that's the same thing as asking for a trade. But yeah, every time he would speak publicly, he would kind of speak out of both sides of his mouth and leave the door open to, hey, maybe I would want to stay here if the team can contend and, you know, like, show me that there's an urgency to do it. But I do think, you raised two questions.
5:30 Speaker 04 Number one, I do think now the, does he play the rest of the season, becomes a very spicy little subplot for a Bucks team that has all the incentive to tank. They get the worst of their own pick and the Pelicans pick, and they could really use a high draft pick, both to rebuild and to take a last ditch effort to Giannis, either via trading that asset or saying, hey, look, here's a bridge to the future of the East still stinks, et cetera. And I do want to say, I think you're-
5:57 Bill Simmons? Good luck with that strategy. Anyway, go ahead.
5:59 Speaker 04 Well, okay, but I do think you're right in these, what is it? I don't, what the hell are you doing rankings? Um, yeah, I do think it's right to put Giannis above the Bucks. There's a lot of frustration around the league with the Bucks today, like, oh, they were never really serious. They wasted our time. They were never super clear with what they wanted, or as clear as wanted to be. They're under no obligation to do what the other teams want them to do. They're under the obligation to get the best deal for Giannis that they can. And if they think kicking it to the summer is at, at worst, net neutral for the packages they're going to get, and there's a 4% chance that they can convince him to re-sign, then they should do that. And they're under no obligation to do anything else. So I agree with you that Giannis
6:42 Speaker 04 should be above his team in these rankings that you're making up.
6:46 Bill Simmons? I think 20 years from now, he's really going to regret it because he's going to get traded anyway. Was he going to stay here? What is he staying for? If you were doing the two through 15 rankings of all of these rosters, they're in the running to have the worst roster. What's interesting is they're only two back from the nine seed and the 10 seed, right? Atlanta and Chicago have 27 losses. Milwaukee is 29. I can't wait to talk about both of those teams, too. But you could, you could make the case if Giannis came back in two to three weeks and Milwaukee could at least not drown. They can try to tread water without drowning. Then maybe he could be a 10 seed. But even if that happens, what's he going to do? Win four straight playoff rounds with Myles Turner and Ryan Rollins? That's not happening. They had to trade him,
7:30 Bill Simmons? and yet they didn't have to trade him because it made more sense for them as a franchise to wait till the summer when more teams can be in it. There's more cap space. There's more options. It didn't make more sense for him to wait. I don't, I just don't get it. I, these, he should have talked. If I were him, I would have talked to a bunch of older retired stars that were in fairly similar situations to this, including KG. I would have called KG and be like, hey KG, get to do that over again. Would you have waited until the summer of 2007 to really kind of open the door for a trade? Or would you have done that a year or two sooner? Guess what KG would have said? I would have done that as soon as I knew I had no future with that team. And you're being loyal to like, who's he being loyal to? One of the owners already sold. Jimmy
8:15 Bill Simmons? Haslem wasn't there when they won the title. I know he's loyal to the fans, but they're going to love him forever anyway. So if I'm a Milwaukee fan, I think this worked out great. It's like, this is awesome. Like, we're probably going to get a top 10 pick. We get to trade him this summer when we have way more chances to get stuff and he didn't push his way out. So in a weird way, it's a win for them, right?
8:36 Speaker 04 And there's some chance that you strike gold in the draft. Giannis is only 31. He, he obviously has these recurring calf issues that are worrisome, but when he's been healthy, he's having arguably the best off, not arguably, the best offensive season of his entire career. He's the third best player in the NBA. I don't even think it's disputable right now. And you know, there's some chance you move some pieces around, you make a crazy trade. You could talk yourself into, could, could we be the fifth seed, the fourth seed and just, just have an honest, good team? That's, it's possible, but I agree. Bucks fans, winners, Bucks. I don't think the packages are going to get worse, despite the fact that Giannis will be now on an expiring deal and theoretically have more leverage
9:19 Speaker 04 to direct where he wants to go. I think his list will be broad enough and the suitors will be broad enough that the packages won't get worse. So I think the Bucks are kind of semi-winners here too.
9:28 Bill Simmons? The Ringer loser. I thought we had a chance of Doc Rivers to come back. I thought, I thought this was all leading to the Giannis rebuild and then Doc being like, okay, thanks everybody. That's not happening.
9:42 Speaker 04 Well, just don't spend the salary slot. That's all I'll say. Just keep the, keep the slot open. Keep, keep the mid-level open.
9:49 Bill Simmons? One thing with Giannis, I don't feel like teams were, I think teams were knocking on the door. Nobody was using that thing they use in the cop movies. Those, the
10:00 Speaker 04 The battering ram.
10:00 Bill Simmons? Big giant thing, the battering ram. Nobody was using that and trying to go through the door. And we had multiple teams that have a chance to win the title who just didn't seem interested. San Antonio, OKC, Denver, couldn't have figured it out. Cleveland, I think they're good with Mobley. And I think there's two things going on with that. One is the age and stuff we've talked about on previous podcasts here about tall guys with some injury history as they get older and move into their mid 30s. And you watch what's happening with Davis, that's bad. I also think there's some questions about, you have some, some guy who has been on the same team for, in the same city for his entire career, where he's a massive star, where he's had incredible sway in the organization, moving
10:43 Bill Simmons? to a different organization, probably not as the biggest star. Maybe he's star 1B, maybe he's star 1A to somebody else's 1B, but he'd have to fit into wherever he's going. And I do think teams were a tiny bit worried about that. It's not, it's not like a diss on Giannis. It's just like, this guy's a mega star and he comes in. And if you're a team like San Antonio, it's weirdly a little more risky than you would think it would be on paper to just be like, now we're adding this person when you don't really need to. When you're San Antonio, your window is, is really going to be two, three years from now. So I don't know. What have you heard about that? About teams being like, huh, this is like a pretty big add?
11:21 Speaker 04 I mean, I don't think San Antonio was ever really in it in season enough for that to become a talking point. Um, I, I guess the same for the Rockets, um, whose team he, it would have been his team. Anyway, he would have been the best player on the team. Um, Cleveland, I guess, you know, Donovan Mitchell is there. I mean, Giannis is better than Donovan Mitchell, but it's been Donovan Mitchell's team. I think that's just more about Mobley and the value they hold on Mobley and his age. The one team that you would zero in on for this theoretically is Minnesota with Ant, who probably sees himself as the best player in the league. And he, kudos to him. He's unbelievable. He's top seven, eight at worst. Um, but I don't, I get the sense that Minnesota was all in to try
12:05 Speaker 04 to do this. I don't think they were concerned about it. And to mention your battering ram thing, it is interesting how quiet it's been on a couple of fronts. Like Minnesota was going to have to move around players to get first round picks to get Giannis. It was going to be McDaniels plus a bunch of picks. And it's interesting how it never came out that like, oh, they tried to get Randall here or Gobert there or wherever they're like, they successfully kept that quiet. I probably, some of that stuff was happening and there was never even a peep. I didn't hear really a peep about like Miami is shopping Wiggins to get an extra first round pick or Miami's trying to change the protections on the Terry Rozier pick to get an extra first round pick. That, that may have been going on. I did not hear that. It's, that is interesting because that's the battering ram for
12:49 Speaker 04 Miami is we, we offer you everything and we get another thing because we can only offer two firsts now versus four in the summer. I didn't hear much of that.
12:58 Bill Simmons? I just never bought Miami or Golden State if Giannis wasn't saying, you were trading me by Thursday. I just never, never believed in it. There's one team I want to talk about with this, but the Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by FanDuel. Forgot to mention this. Last call for football on FanDuel. One final Sunday, one last kickoff. Final chance to place your bets before the NFL season closes. It's tab because after the Super Bowl, the season's over. And basketball season kicks in, but football is officially done. Last call for football fan, an official sportsbook partner of Super Bowl 60. 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Game prompt call 100 gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut.
13:43 Bill Simmons? After Zach and I do the trade deadline stuff, Joe House is going to come in. We're going to make a Super Bowl pick. Talk about that really quickly. Philly was the team I was thinking about for Yanis. Knowing 20 years of Daryl and how much he loves putting three stars together at all costs, that's been one of his strategies and he loves nothing more than, oh, I can get a top five guy. I'm going to figure out how to do this. And I wonder like, would Edgecombe would have had to have been in the deal? And if you and I were the conciliaries for Daryl, talking about, should you do this? Should you not do this? I'm not trading everything for Yanis unless I feel like I'm guaranteed a really good chance at winning the title in the next two, three years.
14:26 Bill Simmons? They have so much Embiid uncertainty, not knowing either way, right? It's like, it's a bonus if he's doing great. I also don't trust that he might not be on the injured list again. And I just don't think there's enough certainty with it. I don't know if, if it's, they had to put Edgecombe in it, all their picks, and now it's just Yanis, Embiid and Maxey. On paper, awesome, but if I don't have Embiid, I'm not beating OKC and I'm not beating Denver. So I, I bet they probably went down the road, but ultimately, too risky with, because of Embiid.
14:59 Speaker 04 Well, okay. So first of all, Paul George probably has to go out in that deal for salary purposes and he just got suspended for 25 games and his contract is something close to an albatross that other teams take on. Second of all, to me, the ship has long sailed that every decision that Philadelphia 76ers make, every big team building decision should be on Maxey's timetable and not Embiid's timetable. Now, you could argue Yanis at 31 is so good that he fits every timetable, but I don't know that it's worth Edgecombe, costing Edgecombe, removing that part of the Maxey timetable. And number three, we have breaking news, Bill.
15:38 Bill Simmons? What is it?
15:39 Speaker 04 The Los Angeles Clippers are trading center Ivica Zubotz to the Indiana Pacers.
15:44 Bill Simmons? Oh, wow. This was long rumored.
15:47 Speaker 04 Price TBD. We're still getting the reporting coming in. Zubotz is on a great contract. This is the Pacers getting their center for next season. They get Halliburton back. They get a top whatever pick. They are loading up to try to recreate the finals run with a guy who, not the shooter, Myles Turner is, but a better, I think, all-around player than Myles Turner. A really interesting trade. And look, man, Clippers, 44 minutes. They're clearly just
16:18 Bill Simmons? Sellers?
16:19 Speaker 04 They're clearly just done for the year. They don't care about the pick. They owe the Thunder.
16:22 Bill Simmons? Garland's hurt.
16:23 Speaker 04 I think that's the appropriate stance. It's like, that's six years ago. We can't be hamstrung by the embarrassment of potentially giving the Thunder a lottery pick. And we just got to make the best deal for us. Now, we just got to see what they got in this deal. But Zubotz is really, really good. And look out for the Pacers, man. They're sort of sight unseen, out of sight, out of mind. Like, the one thing is their young guys have not really developed the way you would want, but they've had so many injuries. Got to figure out what to do with Matherin. This is a huge get and a reminder, a very important reminder to the Cavs, the Knicks, the Pistons, your Boston Celtics. Well, not so much for them, I don't think, because they have Tatum.
17:04 Speaker 04 That, like, the East is going to be a different animal next year. Like, there's one powerhouse that's been absent the whole year, and they're already loading up for next year.
17:13 Bill Simmons? Our producer, Gahow, is devastated. Diehard Clipper fan. I really like Zou. I don't understand the point of trading him when he's on a good contract. I don't really get that at all. Unless, there's no way they would get the Pacers, like, top three protected 2026 pick, right?
17:29 Speaker 04 I would be pretty shocked.
17:30 Bill Simmons? Something like that?
17:31 Speaker 04 I would be pretty shocked, given the quality of this draft and the once-in-a-blue-moon opportunity you get to have a pick like this when you're a legitimately good team and have this built-in gap year.
17:41 Bill Simmons? Well, how high? Neither of us know the draft that well yet, but there's three guys. Plus, I think Wilson and North Carolina would be my fourth. So if you did top five protected for this year. And then unprotected in 27 plus a second pick at 29. I don't know, but it's got to be something like that to give me to trade Zubats. I'll tell you this, Zach Lowe.
18:01 Speaker 04 Yeah.
18:02 Bill Simmons? When, when he got scratched yesterday for personal reasons, which has become the new, uh oh, what's going on here? I started getting real Celtic ideas.
18:11 Speaker 04 I thought, didn't I read something that he had like, like someone was having a kid? I thought I saw something about parental.
18:17 Bill Simmons? Listen, when I see parentheses, personal, I'm ready for a trade.
18:20 Speaker 04 But James Harden, James Harden had some personal reasons this, this week.
18:24 Bill Simmons? Well, I thought with the Celtics, because they downgraded from Simons to Vucevic from a salary standpoint. And they'd been trying to trade Simons for Zubats with a pick for a while. And then the Clippers didn't want to take on the money. But Vucevic for Zubats actually works under the cap and made more sense. And I was wondering, I know that, I know they've liked him.
18:44 Speaker 04 First of all, I, I just want to note that as the spouse of a Balkan, you just nailed both Zubats and Vucevic, which for you is, is we've made progress. And I want to applaud you for the progress and the learning that you've done. The price still has not come in yet. Uh, I'm just refreshing Twitter, which is hard to do with this all in real time, but.
19:05 Bill Simmons? You know, Zach, I'm glad you shouted me out there because obviously everybody knows about my pronunciation dyslexia. And I've butchered names from time to time, all over the place. But the Croatians and the Serbians, I've worked hard. And really what you have to remember all the time is just put the itch on the end. It's not an ick, it's an itch.
19:22 Speaker 04 That's why when they Americanize, like Greg Popovich, they all add H's at the end of their names to make that clear to the dumb Americans among us that this is how you say our names. Anyway, Zubats is a Pacer and let me ask you.
19:35 Bill Simmons? Talk about the Pacer then quick about Zubats, Siakam, Halliburton, Nemhard, 2026 lottery pick, DBD, McConnell. That's like, send me the Eastern odds now for 27. That could be a nice team.
19:50 Speaker 04 Well, we're forgetting like Obi Toppin's missed the entire season, basically. Smith is still here.
19:55 Bill Simmons? Smith.
19:55 Speaker 04 The young guys like Jarrus Walker and Ben Shepard and Isaiah Jackson haven't made the jumps you'd hope. But like, we just went through a top nine that we know saved for Zubats fits like way, adds up to way more than the sum of its parts. Like, we know that that's a thing.
20:10 Bill Simmons? Right.
20:10 Speaker 04 That's a hell of a team. And as, can I ask you one Clippers question?
20:14 Bill Simmons? Yeah. What the hell's going on?
20:16 Speaker 04 We got.
20:16 Bill Simmons? Am I ever going to go to another game?
20:18 Speaker 04 We got, we got 42 minutes left.
20:22 Speaker 04 Any universe in which you see Kawhi in play in the next 42 minutes.
20:26 Bill Simmons? Pistons?
20:27 Speaker 04 I mean, he could fit. That's the thing about Kawhi. He could fit anywhere. He's, he's, you know, an apex.
20:33 Bill Simmons? With that said, the wow trade is the Pistons.
20:38 Bill Simmons? If they did Harris and expiring and two first rounders or whatever.
20:44 Bill Simmons? If you're just talking about an atomic bomb in the East, that would be the atomic bomb because he's been one of, I think, the five or six best players in the league for the last seven weeks.
20:52 Speaker 04 What if the Sixers traded Paul George and all their draft assets back for Kawhi?
20:57 Bill Simmons? Oh, my God. That's where if you're, if Bombers looking like if there's some big suspension coming up, combined with him trying to drive the fan base away, that would be the trade to do it. I, I don't get how you get Zubots from the Clippers. I don't understand that at all.
21:16 Speaker 04 Well, the Pacers control all of their first round picks. All this, all the Siakam picks have been moved, that have been like conveyed or sent or whatever the right word.
21:25 Bill Simmons? Let me ask you this.
21:26 Speaker 04 Yeah.
21:26 Bill Simmons? Who, who is going to be the ninth and 10th playoff teams in the West now?
21:31 Speaker 04 This season?
21:31 Bill Simmons? Because right now, if you go nine down, Clippers are nine, Portland's 10, Memphis is 11. They just gutted their team. Dallas 12, Utah 13, New Orleans 14, and Sacramento 15. And the Clippers have 23 wins. Utah's 16. Like, are we even going to have a ninth and a 10 seed? Is everybody just going to pass? Can you just punt on the play in?
21:55 Speaker 04 Well, Portland, Portland should start the parade, plan the parade route now. They're in like by default. They're going to get in the play in tournament. And this is like, this zooms out to, I mean, I know you want to talk more about some of these East teams, but one of the winners of this trade deadline, for you, for me, for the world at large, is the Charlotte Hornets, who are looking at the Bulls above them like, I think you're kind of tanking the Hawks. You made some weird Kaminga trade. Like the Hornets are going to pass Chicago and get into the play in. And Chicago appears to kind of just be. An asset accumulation, give us all your second round picks and Dillingham and whatever. And kind of pulling the, pulling the ripcord on this season.
22:40 Speaker 04 Except it's too late for them to meaningfully tank this season. Cause all the teams you listed are so far ahead of them in the tank standings that like they, and the teams that they're like closer to Memphis and Dallas. They're also going to start tanking. So the Bulls are, I guess, tanking with a longer lens because they can't, they can't tank. So deeply this season unless they're just like, well, look, Dallas won the lottery from the 10th spot last year. Maybe we'll do it too.
23:07 Bill Simmons? The Bulls were number two on my, I have no idea what you're doing.
23:09 Speaker 04 I was waiting for it. I was waiting.
23:11 Bill Simmons? They were number two. They were right behind Yanis. I've no idea what they're doing. I really liked Anthony Simons. I was genuinely sad when the Celtics traded him because I liked him. I thought he was a really nice fit with the, uh, I thought the three guards on Jalen Brown were the key to the team.
23:25 Speaker 04 Matherin is going to the Clippers, by the way, as part of this deal, not a shocker.
23:30 Bill Simmons? Oh.
23:30 Speaker 04 The lack of any extension talks before the season sort of telegraphed that he was not a fit and how they wanted to play and build. And the Clippers are always, even when they're making moves from a position of some weakness, they're always good at grabbing, grabbing something interesting.
23:49 Bill Simmons? You know, he's been available for a couple of months. I was wondering if he was going to be, I was wondering, he was in that Kobe White. De Sunmu, Alvarado, these guys that it was like, oh shit, if they end up on a contender, that's gonna be nice, but. Bulls, I have no idea what they're doing. At one point they had seven or eight guards. They've gone sideways.
24:08 Speaker 04 They still have seven or eight guards.
24:10 Bill Simmons? They're under the tax finally. Well, I know the Bulls fans, I know if you're a Bulls fan, you're going to sleep at night going, man, I just hope we can get under the tax and go 40 and 42 again. That would be great.
24:21 Speaker 04 The last dance, part 11, the year we got under the tax at the deadline.
24:25 Bill Simmons? They cut the cord with Vooch. They were like, we're finally good. Thanks for everything. Thanks for, uh, what the secret worst trader this decade.
24:35 Bill Simmons? I don't know what they're doing. I don't, the moves together just look like the fucking, one of the Zodiac letters. You're just like, what, what is this? What are all these symbols? I don't understand.
24:45 Speaker 04 You got rewatchables on the brain.
24:47 Bill Simmons? Yeah. Uh, we have to take a break and then I want to do the rest of the, I have no idea what you're doing rankings and hopefully we'll have some trades. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. I know it's last call for football, but did you know with FanDuel's Touchdown Jackpot, you can win a share of $6 million in bonus bets? That's right. Opt in, place an anytime touchdown scorer bet before the game kicks off. And if your player scores the first or last touchdown, you'll win your bet plus a share of bonus bets. So if you want to do the Patriots, do Drake May. Do the old QB draw or the scramble can get him in. Or A.J. Barner for the Seahawks, who's their tush push guy, but also like a short yardage around the goal line there. I'd go with those two.
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27:24 Bill Simmons? All right, we're back. I'm gonna have to add the Clippers to the I have no idea what you're doing rankings until we find out what this pick is. We were talking during the break, maybe it's top five protected 26, and if the Pacers end up moving to the top five and they get it, then maybe it's unprotected 27, and then some sort of swap in anywhere from 28 to 30, or there's gotta be. I really like Zubotz. I voted for all NBA 13 last year because I like to have a center. I wasn't gonna get bullied into these positionless lineups. I thought he was a guy that could go into a war with some of the big guys in the league. And I also, there's a bigger trend here, and I think this is what the Pacers were trying to do, and I also think this is what the Celtics were thinking about, the Vucevic trade. It seems like everybody wants to get bigger. Everybody's worried
28:09 Bill Simmons? about if you're actually gonna be in a playoff series, about situations where you're going against these double bigs. And you look at the Celtics in the East, every team they'd have to probably beat in a playoff series that they're gonna, if they seriously think they can contend, is gonna be able to go bigger on them, right? Like, you play the Pistons, they can play Dern and Stewart together. You play the Knicks, they can do Towns and Mitch together. You play Cleveland, they can do Mobley and Allen together. And I just feel like that, like the Celtics with the Vucevic flexibility, with Kada and with Garza and Tatum when he comes back, at least they have some size. And maybe the Pacers looked at that and said-
28:43 Speaker 04 Forgot, you forgot Murray Boils and Mamu, okay?
28:47 Bill Simmons? I like Murray Boils. But maybe the Pacers looked at that and were like, we just gotta get in on this because we have Hal Burton coming back, and we have a chance to contend. I have no idea what you're doing rankings. Number three for me is the Hawks.
29:00 Speaker 04 You want the details are coming in, by the way. We're live, we're live.
29:04 Bill Simmons? Yeah, we're live.
29:05 Speaker 04 Matheran, Isaiah Jackson, two first-round picks and one second-round pick for Zubotz and Kobe Brown. We don't still know the details on the bigs. Can I just say one thing about-
29:13 Bill Simmons? We don't know the year.
29:14 Speaker 04 Can I think, can I say one more thing about the Bulls?
29:16 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
29:17 Speaker 04 As long as we're doing that. Here's what I don't get about the Bulls. I understand. Like, I talked to people around the league today. Like, I asked, I texted, I just like spam texted, what are the Bulls doing? And some people are like, what? What's obvious what they're doing? They're accumulating assets. They got, I think, nine second-round picks in these various trades. They got Rob Dillingham, second draft kind of guy for them who will get a chance to play. They didn't get him in Minnesota. Like, and they have massive amounts of cap space the next two summers.
29:41 Bill Simmons? Okay, that they won't spend.
29:43 Speaker 04 I understand all that. My, my thing is like, DeSoomu is 26, and Kobe White is 25. They're both good. DeSoomu is like, really, really good. And so they traded like mid-young-ish, mid-career guys. They traded an old guy in Vooch. So they traded all kinds of different players. Like, what kind of players do they want on their team? Like, what, what kind of team do they want?
30:08 Bill Simmons? Younger, worse versions of the same guys they already had?
30:11 Speaker 04 Yeah, they have, they have Giddy and like, what other piece here? Giddy and Buzelis and like, what other piece here is of major, long-term interest to me? Like, one of those guards couldn't have helped your team going forward? What kind of team are you trying to actually make here? I get, assets are great. Second-rounders are helpful. The Wolves used a bunch of them to get Io DeSoomu. Like, I get it.
30:30 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
30:31 Speaker 04 But what are you doing with them?
30:33 Bill Simmons? Well, I think Bulls fans have been asking this for 11 years. We have the details on the Zubats trade. It's a 26 first-round pick. This is from Shams. It's protected 1 to 4 and 10 to 30.
30:46 Speaker 04 So it's the double protection?
30:48 Bill Simmons? So if it, if it doesn't fall between 5 and 9, I guess it rolls over to the next year. And then it's also a 29 unprotected. Matherin, I like Isaiah Jackson. I'm in the Isaiah Jackson, I think he's got potential camp, and they got Matherin. It's a pretty good trade. I would, that makes, that trade makes more sense to me. You have a chance to get 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 in the draft to replace the pick you're giving to the Thunder. Right? And now they could try to patch together with Lopez with some small-ball lineups. Maybe they're gonna try to get one more center. So that makes more sense to me.
31:22 Speaker 04 Say that again? It's, it's 1 to 4 and 10 to 30?
31:25 Bill Simmons? Yeah, basically, if it's 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9.
31:28 Speaker 04 What does it become if it's, if it's 1 to 4?
31:31 Bill Simmons? Well, my guess is usually when there's protections like that, it rolls over to 27, which is why 29 is unprotected. Right? So the Pacers are like... Probably keeping 26, but if we don't keep it, you get 27 or you get it or you get 27.
31:47 Speaker 04 That's a really interesting trade.
31:50 Bill Simmons? It's good trade.
31:50 Speaker 04 One to four is a, is a win for the Clippers, I think. Um, I'm sure that the two sides negotiated really hard about that exact range of where that should end. Because, you know, the way the lottery works, I mean, who knows where Indiana will finish. There's going to be a better than 50 50 chance that that pick can phase. Well, I mean, we'll see how the 10th pick comes into it, but like even the worst record guy, the worst team in the league has like a 48% chance of getting the fifth pick. And then, you know, you go from there.
32:25 Bill Simmons? Right.
32:25 Speaker 04 And it's, it's going to be.
32:27 Bill Simmons? Well, and for the Pacers, it's a four, we've been saying it's a three person draft and then a drop off. Basically for most of the college season, but I think that North Carolina kid is a really nice number four.
32:38 Speaker 04 It won't be better Pacers. It'll be like 50 50. I'm doing math on the, off the top of my head.
32:44 Bill Simmons? Yeah, if I'm the Pacers, I want to protect my chance at also getting number four. Cause worst case scenario, I get Wilson from Carolina. More I have know what you're doing rankings as we've made for more trades. The Kings, they're just blanket in here. I don't know what the Kings are doing. I don't understand why they helped save the Cavaliers $50 million to get Deandre Hunter. Still trying to figure that out.
33:06 Speaker 04 They got off Dennis Schroder, but they got on Deandre Hunter and they gave up Keyon Ellis in the process. And they got Dennis Schroder, uh, for reasons that nobody understood. And then they got Russell Westbrook for more reasons that nobody understood. Who do you think is most sad? Rank, rank the sadness levels. If we go 29 minutes and there's no Kings trade. Rank who's most sad Zach Levine, DeMar DeRozan, Domas Sabonis.
33:32 Bill Simmons? Oh, I don't think Zach Levine's sad at all. He's already opted into next year.
33:36 Speaker 04 And then, and then I was gonna say.
33:37 Bill Simmons? He's like, are the checks clearing?
33:39 Speaker 04 Kings fans are number one, right? Just like what, like how?
33:42 Bill Simmons? Kings fans one. Sabonis two.
33:44 Speaker 04 Sabonis is definitely two. Sabonis is like, I just can't even believe this is my life now.
33:49 Bill Simmons? So bonus is probably like, I thought I had a chance maybe to sneak over to Toronto, Portland, somewhere, anywhere, but you know, he's another one. He signed, he signed the extension. Uh, my number five, I don't know what you're doing rankings is the Magic, who have not made a trade yet. And I don't really understand what's going on with that team and the mix of guys they have. And then here's number six, Zach Lowe.
34:11 Speaker 04 Okay.
34:13 Bill Simmons? Second round picks. Why are teams so excited about these? It seems like people want them because other teams are dumb enough to trade them. But then when you go through basketball reference and look through all the guys taking in the second round every year, you got a one in 10 chance of hitting on somebody. Usually it's a guy that was drafted by a team in the second round and two years later ends up on another team like Diabate. Very rarely is this an awesome pick. And, and it seems like some of these teams fall for it every year and they can't get enough of the second rounders. I don't understand it.
34:43 Speaker 04 Well, it's, it's, you know, it's like, um, the Boston, Chicago trade. Uh, the Bulls got New Orleans, second rounder, I think. Right?
34:50 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
34:50 Speaker 04 And so that's going to be the 31st, 32nd, 34th pick.
34:54 Bill Simmons? I get it with that, but what do I care about having like?
34:56 Speaker 04 Even that and the NBA geekery, uh, which is, I am a part of obviously, but a lot of it just does, well, what a, that's a gem of a trade, gem of an asset. And it turns out to be nothing. And it turns like these second round picks, they're nice to like hoard. Cause if you get a lot of them, you can do what Minnesota did and just throw six of them at one player. And then you look, it's like Denver's 2027. That's not very good. And like, it's like, you know, I, I think people fetishize them a little bit, but if you get enough, you can weaponize them for like one, can you get over the goal line kind of trade like Minnesota made. But can we go back to Orlando?
35:32 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
35:34 Speaker 04 Um, I don't like, they're 25 and 24.
35:38 Bill Simmons? I know.
35:39 Speaker 04 And some of their losses have been recently, like the funk level hovering over their team is like a DEFCON two funk level at this point. And obviously they're waiting for Franz to come back and crossing their fingers that Franz, who is, I think their best player, ties everything together and all of a sudden they're the team that everybody thought they would be, that they thought they would be. I think that's a little pie in the sky at this point. I think their roster is gonna look, their team could look very different next year, coach, roster, everything, if they don't turn this around. But they're also, and I'm trying to think, like, what are the teams that lost, that feel, that feel like they lost
36:19 Speaker 04 because the Yanis thing got kicked to the summer? And what are the teams that won because the Yanis thing got kicked to the summer? And I want to include Orlando on the latter list because you know that Palo for Yanis, Palo and a bunch of stuff for Yanis is like one of my favorite fake trades, but the Magic don't have a bunch of stuff anymore. And Palo, the bloom is off the rose with Palo. Like, like at the beginning of the season, if you were not poisoned pill by the arcane cap rules, that would have been like, whoa, Milwaukee, that's the best they could have done in a Yanis trade. They got the best player. And now it's like, we'd much rather have Evan Mobley and probably a couple other kind of guys than that.
36:56 Bill Simmons? Palo's a pretty good prize for Yanis.
36:59 Speaker 04 I, I don't disagree. I just saying it's
37:02 Bill Simmons? How old is he, like 23?
37:04 Speaker 04 Yeah, but I think after this season, if it ended today, it would be a lot more like, all right, well, they're gonna have to sort of figure out how Palo works and what to do with them. Whereas before the season, it would have been like an explosion of like A++ trade grades for the Bucks and blah, blah, blah.
37:18 Bill Simmons? Right. I think you're right. The only other team I had for the, I have no idea what you're doing, but I actually do have an idea what they're doing because the trade made sense, is Kaminga and Buddy Heald for Porzingis. The Warriors doing that. It's clear they just had to get Kaminga. They just had to end the situation. That was it. Whatever it took to, to end the saga. And they're like, can we offer you Porzingis? He's basically hurt every year and has some mystery medical condition and we have no idea how many games he's gonna play. And they're like, done. Let's call it in. We don't even need picks.
37:57 Speaker 04 That was my, we're going to bed trade on East Coast time last night. That trade comes over at like 11:45 PM, East Coast time. I'm like, Kaminga and Heald for Porzingis? Might be time for me to turn in. If this is, we've reached this stage of the trade deadline, it might be time for you to like, I'm just like, what hap- what happened here? Does Kaminga fit on the Hawks at all?
38:16 Bill Simmons? No.
38:16 Speaker 04 Do they care if he fits on the Hawks at all?
38:18 Bill Simmons? Why did they want Kaminga?
38:18 Speaker 04 Probably to trade, probably to trade him again at some point. Porzingis like, stretch five, the Warriors really need to stretch out. He doesn't play. Like, and I'm not, it sucks that he doesn't play, but he, you can't pencil in Porzingis. He's like, well, this is how he fits in the lineup and they unlocks X, Y, and Z if he doesn't play.
38:36 Bill Simmons? Well, we both liked the AD trade for the Wizards.
38:40 Speaker 04 I think the AD trade is like a carnival. I kind of like, I'm, I'm like on a carnival ride. I don't know what's going on. I kind of like it. Sometimes I'm getting kind of scared. Like, yeah, like someone, someone next to me threw up, but I'm not sure what's going on, but I'm kind of having fun.
38:55 Bill Simmons? I love it. Uh, I, even House talked himself into it pretty quickly, but they just didn't give up anything. And whatever they got back, worst case scenario, it'll just be a giant expiring contract, which, you know, they were throwing into that trade to begin with. The picks are meaningless. They're, they're just going to be end of the round picks. And they have this puncher's chance of AD being able to rebuild his trade value for them. And either it's good for them because they'll be a playoff team, or they can flip him for something meaningful. Like, to me, an absolute no brainer. And I, we know why Mahoney did a great piece for The Ringer today. Here's why Dallas did this. Because they just had to move on and they couldn't have him around anymore. He was this walking embodiment of the dumbest trade that's ever happened.
39:39 Bill Simmons? And they just had to move on and, and, you know, change up the guest room after the murder happened and put new furniture in there and call it a day. But I thought the Wizards, it's rare to say, I think the Wizards have been run really well the last couple of years. They've made smart moves that have made sense to me over and over again, much like Charlotte. Two teams that have been an organizational disaster, who now at least seem like their moves are logical. I was in on this. I really liked it.
40:06 Speaker 04 Well, and at least when they make up injuries for Anthony Davis so that they can tank the rest of the season and protect their top eight protected pick that goes to the Knicks if it's outside the top eight.
40:15 Bill Simmons? You don't have to make them up.
40:16 Speaker 04 People will believe it. You could say anything. You'd be like, Anthony Davis stubbed his toe on the stairs in his house.
40:22 Bill Simmons? Longitudinal calf muscles slash something.
40:25 Speaker 04 The elevators in his new apartment building closed faster than expected and swooshed him and he's out for 10. You believe anything and.
40:33 Bill Simmons? Yeah, he has vertigo. Okay, sure.
40:35 Speaker 04 But I don't, I don't remember anything quite like this where a team that is so abysmally bad, that has not enjoyed any meaningful lottery luck in terms of moving up and locking into a no brainer generational prospect. I think Sar is really good. I'm not sure he's a generational like you did, like this is that Cooper flag or, you know, Wemba Yama, obviously. He's also not researching. And like, and still so bad, like the team is so, so bad, shot themselves in the foot with the McCollum trade and they just had two, like, I'm just like, AD when healthy is a top 20 player. When healthy is a big, a big caveat, top 25.
41:18 Bill Simmons? 34, 34 next year?
41:20 Speaker 04 And Trey Young, like, love him, hate him, whatever. He's a top 40 player in the NBA, probably if we sat down and ranked them.
41:29 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
41:30 Speaker 04 Whatever it is, a team that is abysmally bad, nakedly tanking, just had two All-Star level players like fall into its lap and decided like, yeah, I guess, sure. Why, why not? We'll take Trey Young. And it's, it's one of the weirdest situations I can remember. I guess it's fine. They didn't give up very much for it.
41:49 Bill Simmons? Didn't give up anything.
41:50 Speaker 04 I don't think.
41:51 Bill Simmons? It's also a good example of why you don't buy out contracts and why you're better off waiting until March before you buy somebody out because you never know. You never know when Dallas is going to be like, we just have to trade this guy. We got to move on from this. And all of a sudden you have Anthony Davis on your team. And by the way, the rap on this was that Rich Paul, Clutch Sports, was if you traded for AD, you were going to have to give him an extension. There's no extension.
42:16 Speaker 04 I think I heard from other teams that were in, not in, but like, at least in the, like, keep us in the loop on AD, that, that they came off that toward them because they realized it was, it was a losing battle.
42:29 Bill Simmons? So we got, we got to talk about, um, so we like that trade for the Wizards.
42:33 Speaker 04 Well, but like, can we flip it around? Like, what do you think of it for Dallas? You just think it's, we had to do it even though the picks are no, are no good.
42:40 Bill Simmons? I wouldn't have done it. I would have kept him until this summer because it would have been a big giant expiring contract. I still liked him and, and flagged together. We only saw it briefly, but I, I thought there was real potential there. I just would have kept him and I get it. I'm not in Dallas. I don't know how grisly and awful it is, that situation. And maybe it's that bad, but fundamentally I don't know. If he's not playing anyway, you're trying to tank to get a lottery pick. At some point, some point flag will have some sort of injury. They'll shut him down. But I don't understand why he's already hurt. This is the best case scenario for you. Then you can decide what to do this summer. Why is this a trade now? It's because you want to get rid of him.
43:18 Speaker 04 Yeah, I think that's the more interesting conversation about this trade is on the one hand, there was like not really a strong, there was maybe not much of a market at all for Anthony Davis injured right now. Like you can't just bank on him coming in and helping a playoff run. The contract is what it is. The $63 million player option sort of looms over it too. I think that's an underrated little element of this that Washington probably doesn't care about, but other teams would. And, you know, like, I don't think the Mavs could have done better than this now. They certainly couldn't have done worse than this in the summer had they waited. I think it's, that's the more interesting angle is like, did they, did they really need to do this now? I, I, I'm not convinced.
43:58 Bill Simmons? They did not. I mean, what if the Knicks flame out in the playoffs and you could get towns and something else for Davis? Like it's just a better asset. Two trades that I loved, you won't be surprised by either of them.
44:10 Speaker 04 Okay.
44:10 Bill Simmons? Ranking number second, ranking number two on the list, the Knicks getting Alvarado. Basically for Yabaselli in two seconds. They traded Yabaselli for Terry. Um, Alvarado, perfect playoff guy. I was kind of hoping the Pistons would get him. Just for, I just thought he would have been great on that team. I do think the bench clearing brawl odds for Knicks Pistons in May has probably dropped to plus 240 with Alvarado in the Knicks.
44:31 Speaker 04 I think, I think the odds if they play are.
44:34 Bill Simmons? There's a fight.
44:35 Speaker 04 Well, I just, I think.
44:36 Bill Simmons? We need referees.
44:37 Speaker 04 I think the more interesting thing is. The over under on what game in the series it is. Like is it, do we set it at two and a half? And like one and a half? Is it, is it just game one?
44:47 Bill Simmons? It would be funny if Adam Silver announced the ground rules for the series were like, look, you might not believe me, as I just want you guys to know, if punches are thrown, you're out for four games. Like just, just lay out basically, here's what's at stake. I don't think there's any way these teams don't get into some sort of fight in a playoff series. Alvarado, I think Alvarado's already gotten in a fight with the Pistons, didn't he?
45:09 Speaker 04 I'd have to go back through the.
45:11 Bill Simmons? Alvarado's like, he'll, he'll go out with anybody. But I really liked them. They needed him. McBride's out for a while. And, uh, you know, I just, he's a playoff guy. He's a ninth man who's going to come in, especially at home, and he can swing quarters, which is what you want. But the more important trade you mentioned earlier, to soon move on to Minnesota for Dillingham, who's a bust, for second round picks, whatever. To soon was just legitimately good and he's a, he would be on the, was he in your Marc Gasol All-Stars? I can't remember.
45:39 Speaker 04 No.
45:40 Bill Simmons? But he could have been. He could have made a case as a bench guard.
45:42 Speaker 04 Sure.
45:42 Bill Simmons? I was hoping the Celtics were going to get him. Um, I don't know why the Bulls wouldn't want him. He is such an upgrade. What do you think the Timberwolves point guard position was for a grade heading into this week? Was it an F minus, an F or a D minus?
45:56 Speaker 04 One out of every three games, Bowen's Island would make it a C minus.
46:02 Bill Simmons? Think how sad that sentence was.
46:04 Speaker 04 I mean, I, I love their starting five as is, which does not have a traditional point guard, and I think that works fine. It's, it's less about the archetype of that position, although it can help late in games. And this is a team that's had some late game meltdowns, although they had the opposite against Toronto last night. Um, it's just more about like your bench can't be Nas Reed and a hope and a prayer every single, every single moment of every single game. And they've gone from that to one of the favorites for six man of the year, good on both ends of the floor. Uh, the advanced stats don't love him defensively. I, I think that's fine and probably flawed because of the team that he's playing for. I think this is, this was my number one target for Minnesota, my favorite potential guard
46:47 Speaker 04 off the bench. The only caveat would.
46:50 Bill Simmons? Are you serious off the bench?
46:52 Speaker 04 Uh, I mean, I, I would bring him off the bench. I love, like I said, I think their starting five is great.
46:58 Bill Simmons? And well, he might be finishing games for them though.
47:00 Speaker 04 Sure, that's fine. And like sometimes Nas Reed does, sometimes you just never know who's gonna finish games. I love this trade for them. He's sniffing 50, 40, 90 from the field.
47:10 Bill Simmons? Forty-five from three.
47:11 Speaker 04 He attacks all the space. Like when you put two on the ball against Ant and all those gaps open up, he's a very decisive downhill player. He'll inject some pace into their team. I think he's like an absolute A-plus perfect fit. The only caveat, Bill, is could they have just resigned Nikhil Alexander-Walker and saved themselves a lot of trouble? What is your response to that caveat?
47:32 Bill Simmons? I like how this played much more. I think this was outrageous how this worked out for them. And I can't believe four second round picks are worth the soon move for a team that's going nowhere anyway. I, I honestly wish the Celtics had offered their first round pick.
47:48 Bill Simmons? For him because I think even though they just traded them with the Simons, Vucevic, I would have. This is the exactly the type of guy on a really smart team that can push the pace. When you need somebody to defend another point guard, I just think he's a winning player. And I, I was surprised they traded him. Cause as you said, he's 26. I understand the Kobe White thing. Kobe White, there's odds he might get 25 million a year from somebody, who knows? But this is like the classic sneaky, awesome playoff guy. And exactly what they needed. Cause now, how many times have you watched somewhere? It seems like, man, I just wish they had somebody who knew how to dribble the ball instead of Ant. In some, in some of these crunch times.
48:28 Speaker 04 And he's also capable of like, he'll go off for a legit 25 points in a game. Like he's not like, well, you got a 16 tonight. It's a big game. Like he can, he can pour it in, in, in.
48:39 Bill Simmons? He's like, he checked, take over a quarter guy. I guarantee, I don't know a lot of Bulls fans, there's no way they're psyched about losing him. And he's gonna go in Minnesota, he fits with Ant? I'll tell you this, Zach Lowe, cause the Minnesota odds were jumping around today for the finals. At one point they were like, I don't know, 16 to one when there seemed like they had a Yanis chance. It was 20 to one earlier. Now it's 27 to one. I think they had the third best chance to win the title. Like if you, OKC is plus 110 on FanDuel, Denver 7-1. And then the next team is Celtics at 14-1. And some of these teams, Spurs 15-1. I would have Minnesota in the three spot. I think they're built to compete in playoff series and they have a guy who thinks he's better than
49:22 Bill Simmons? everyone else in the league, whether that's true or not, he thinks that. And he plays OKC, he plays Denver, he plays whoever. And he's like, I'm the best guy in the game. And they have a nice team built around him. They can go bigger, they can go smaller. They have different scoring all over the place. And one thing they were missing was somebody like this guy. So I'd have him third.
49:39 Speaker 04 Look, they've been my dark horse, like they can win the, flat out win the title team all season. I really liked their team as is. It's not perfect. It can get a little ugly and stagnant sometimes. Gobert is a very polarizing player to say the least.
49:54 Bill Simmons? But the league swung his way a little bit with how big everything's getting.
49:58 Speaker 04 People poo-poo their back-to-back conference finals appearances a little bit, like the matchups broke right and Steph got hurt. Like they're a legit conference finals team. Like they, they lost those two series. I think both of them were 4-1. So they haven't acquitted themselves too well at the highest, highest level. But they're a legit, really good team. Aaron Gordon's hamstring stuff is now officially like a major concern for the Nuggets, who I think could absolutely win the championship if they're healthy. That if is coming bigger and bigger. And I don't know how odds work. Like, I don't know how you factor in the fact that your first three are all Western Conference teams and someone has to win the East and get to the finals. But I, like, to me, they can win the title. And that's, that was the case before this. Although I was
50:39 Speaker 04 baking in, they will do something for sure at the trade deadline like this with Dillingham going out. And this is, this is to me, the perfect guy.
50:48 Bill Simmons? Well, interesting. Denver's 30, Denver's in the three seed with 19 losses. Houston's four with their less wins, less losses. And then Minnesota's fifth.
50:58 Bill Simmons? Denver loses Watson last night. I was watching. Were you watching when that happened? All of a sudden he walked out holding the back of his leg.
51:05 Speaker 04 I did. He did it during a Jokic ridiculous Jokic basket down. The Jokic minutes restriction, by the way, the fakest minutes restriction in the history of the NBA. Like, why even talk about it? If it's, you know what? We're going double overtime. We're going to play 40 something minutes, but it happened during a Jokic basket. So I missed it. And then the game went to break and I saw him limping off. I was like, oh, boy, that's, and it did. It was one of those ones where that looked like.
51:27 Bill Simmons? Yeah, it was not a good one.
51:28 Speaker 04 Yeah.
51:29 Bill Simmons? Yeah, Denver loses back to back games against Detroit and the Knicks that were both awesome games and just I felt like late around playoff games, but I like the spot Minnesota's in. And then, you know, the other one we didn't talk about was Charlotte with basically upgrading from Colin Sexton and Kobe Jones.
51:50 Speaker 04 Kobe White.
51:51 Bill Simmons? I'm sorry, Kobe White. My first live podcast malpractice. Kobe Jones, really important USA soccer player in the mid 90s.
51:59 Speaker 04 That's right. I think.
52:01 Bill Simmons? Yeah. Kobe White, who I just think is, I think Colin Sexton was fun for that Hornets team, but I think Kobe White's a better player. It makes more sense with them. I don't think they're going to get Lonzo. I thought when Lonzo got bought out, I thought that's where he was going, but I don't think that's where he's going.
52:20 Speaker 04 They just got Tyus Jones from the Magic in a tax dump. And notably in that trade, they got two second round picks, almost replenishing the three seconds they sent out in the Sexton, Kobe White deal. Yeah, Kobe White's just like a better version of Colin Sexton.
52:35 Bill Simmons? Right. And a little more thoughtful with teammates and gives them some, some fun lineups. And Charlotte, Charlotte's third in net rating in the last 25 games? 25 games is not a small sample size.
52:48 Speaker 04 Now, a couple, I, I wonder what would happen if you turned the two 50 something point victories into like run of the mill 20 something point victories.
52:57 Bill Simmons? Right, would it drop?
52:57 Speaker 04 But it's still top five and, and they did win those games by 50 points and that they're, they look legit. Like, I think it would be super fun if they made the playoffs. And I think they're, I mean, right now, if they got into the play in tournament, let's say they leapfrog Chicago. I mean, they're playing better than Atlanta. They're playing better than Orlando. They're playing better than Miami and hell, get them in there. Let's have like a Knicks Hornets first round series. That'd be a blast.
53:24 Bill Simmons? What do you think their playing odds are on Fanduel right now?
53:27 Speaker 04 To get in?
53:29 Bill Simmons? The Hornets to be a play in team.
53:31 Speaker 04 Okay.
53:32 Bill Simmons? What do you think the odds are? I would just tell you that they were plus 290 two weeks ago.
53:38 Speaker 04 Something roughly the like better than even odds?
53:41 Bill Simmons? Yeah, they're minus 600 to make the play in now. So Vegas is like, we're in, we completely believe. And I like them to actually make the to actually make the actual playoffs, which is plus 138. I think that team's legit good and if LaMelo, who knows, knock on wood with LaMelo. But if he can stay healthy. So some of the other smaller stuff as we get closer to deadline. Cleveland shed just a phenomenal amount of luxury tax. Not that we care because it's just somebody's. Somebody's money. But they shed about $100 billion with that Sacramento trade and then somebody taking Lonzo Ball. I still don't understand what's worth it for these teams to take a $10 million player. And like here a couple of second round picks for your troubles.
54:26 Bill Simmons? It's like, oh gee, thanks. I would just rather stick them with the tax bill and get the money back from them. Philly got under the apron. Minnesota was able to shed some money.
54:36 Speaker 04 Philly got under the tax, Phoenix got under the tax, Denver got under the tax, Toronto got under the tax, Orlando got under the tax. Wee, yay, good job.
54:42 Bill Simmons? Everybody's under the tax so they don't get slaughtered by it. And then the Celtics did not get under the tax yet, although it feels like they're creeping toward it. But they did get under the first apron. So this Simon's Vucevic trade. It's really Simons for Vucevic and blank. Because there's going to be a second player that they add, probably a guard because they're a guard short right now after losing Simons.
55:07 Speaker 04 Buyout.
55:09 Bill Simmons? Buyout or who knows? Maybe that maybe they'll do something the next 10 minutes, but.
55:15 Bill Simmons? They had a crazy win in Houston.
55:17 Speaker 04 I didn't see that game, but I like they blew them out. They blew them out without who who scored that game? Jalen Brown and Hauser, right?
55:25 Bill Simmons? Yeah, and Simons, who wasn't there anymore. Ron Harper outplayed Kevin Durant and started.
55:32 Speaker 04 Houston, when Houston has rough games, they're pretty rough.
55:38 Bill Simmons? I don't like the, I don't like the vibe with them. They're not passing. Now granted, I'm sitting on a TV 1,500 miles away, I'm sitting on a couch 1,500 miles away watching them on TV. I thought Adams was kind of their super sauce, superpower and not having him anymore, they just seem beatable every night now.
55:56 Speaker 04 Well, you
55:57 Bill Simmons? They're fine. They're a 50-win team.
55:59 Speaker 04 Yeah, but without Adams, with Adams playing 20 minutes, you're basically guaranteed a crazy offensive rebounding rate.
56:06 Bill Simmons? Yes.
56:07 Speaker 04 And without him, you're still a very good offensive rebounding team. But you could have an average offensive rebounding game. And when you lose that element, their offense just gets a little bit stuck in mud. Turns out they missed Fred VanVliet, which I thought everyone was just sort of like waving that away at the beginning of the season.
56:22 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
56:23 Speaker 04 Out of excitement for Reed, who's been good and Amen, who's been very good. They need a player like Fred VanVliet and he's injured.
56:30 Bill Simmons? This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun, sometimes earlier than expected? Sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead, but what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness though, hopefully your team doesn't go to Cancun. One, two, three, Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save. Savings vary. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you. So they can help personalize
57:13 Bill Simmons? coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.
57:21 Bill Simmons? I have a
57:24 Bill Simmons? Top four best we fucked up admissions.
57:27 Speaker 04 Okay.
57:28 Bill Simmons? Number one, Minnesota with Rob Dillingham. Whoops.
57:32 Speaker 04 And the heel.
57:34 Bill Simmons? So you think that was a fuck up because he was like 20 million bucks and they were way over the.
57:38 Speaker 04 I think they're the same fuck up in that we let him go and brought Nas back because we had to give these young guys a chance. And none of it panned out.
57:48 Bill Simmons? Makes sense. That's number one. Number two, not a surprise, but Golden State with the Wiseman Kaminga combo. That's the official. It's the funeral where somebody was not coherent for 10 years and you still have to have the funeral. But then it's still kind of like, man, looking back, can't believe how that played out. Atlanta last summer where they had this unbelievable spot and you were doing bird sounds on your podcast.
58:17 Speaker 04 Trying to hurt me now.
58:18 Bill Simmons? How said I might have a Eastern Conference long shot bet with them? And weirdly, Alexander Walker was an A plus for a move and every other move was terrible. They trade Luke Kennard to the Lakers. They, so they get out of the Luke Kennard business. They get out of the Porzingis business. They not in the honest business. I don't know if they want to be a playing team or a lottery team. Basically they hit the lottery with this New Orleans trade that Dumars offered them. And that was how they won the summer, but then everything else they did eh.
58:51 Speaker 04 Well, that's the thing, like among the teams that was not in on Yanis now that could, that it's a small win for them that this gets kicked to the summer. I don't think the Hawks would trade the number one overall pick if they got it for Yanis. Just because it's too valuable, this draft is too good. But you know, it's, it's, they, they could get, they could nudge their way back into that discussion if they wanted to now. But yeah, I don't, it's been a bad year for the Hawks and Kennard is like, you know, Kennard to the Lakers, fine. Like Kennard's one of those guys who like every team's excited to get him. He shoots 40% to 45% from three like clockwork. And he can't play in the playoffs down the stretch of games or even in the regular season. And every team eventually is like, yeah, okay, we're moving off you.
59:34 Bill Simmons? He does get passed around a lot. I still felt like there was a, a team for him somewhere at some point in his career. Like I always thought like, it just would have been fun to watch him on Denver being used like they use Jamal Murray as the bench backup. Something like that where he's playing up bigs and guys who know how to move and he's just shooting up in threes, but we'll never see it. And then the last team, the Lakers, I don't know if you noticed the, the shift in, in what was being handed out to media from a narrative standpoint, but they are now in the, hey, in case you didn't notice, looking like 60 million in cap space this summer?
1:00:13 Bill Simmons? Cool.
1:00:13 Speaker 04 Someone said a hundred million somewhere and I'm like, that's definitely not right because Reeves cap hold is like 27 million by itself. And then you throw in Luca, the cap's only 160. You got other salaries, but they got a lot of cap space and they now have three first round picks to trade in the off season.
1:00:28 Bill Simmons? Who's the cap space for? Who are the free agents?
1:00:32 Speaker 04 It's a great question. It's a great question.
1:00:34 Bill Simmons? Cap space. It's so seductive and sexy until you look at the 26 free agent list.
1:00:41 Bill Simmons? I just think when you look back at what they did last year and then talking themselves into Deandre Ayton, which was hilarious. And it was funny watching Laker fans go through the seven stages of Deandre Ayton. And now they've reached the final stage, which is what's in the box? What's in the box?
1:00:57 Speaker 04 A lot of seven references from you recently.
1:00:59 Bill Simmons? Just watched it. But yeah, they're in the what's in the box stage with Ayton and then.
1:01:04 Speaker 04 What did, no, well, I want to, I want your Lakers thoughts on something.
1:01:08 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:01:08 Speaker 04 I feel like the Draymond Lakers buzz like just leapt out of the shadows and into the spotlight, like explicitly this year. Like there's, I don't know exactly where the reporting came from, because it's, it's a word this, this week of the year. But like others legitimate interest. He's got this player option, blah, blah. Like what, what do you actually, like, is there a world where LeBron leaves the Lakers and Draymond goes to the Lakers? Or is it like they're, they're going to be, they want to play together? Like, are we, is Draymond still this?
1:01:39 Speaker 04 Relevant, for lack of a better word?
1:01:41 Bill Simmons? He, not from a player standpoint, I don't think he's at the same level he used to be. With that said, a Rui for Draymond trade would be really fun. That's actually a trade I was wondering would happen this week. But I kinda liked it for both sides. I liked Rui on the Warriors and I liked the idea of Draymond on the Lakers as kinda trying to supercharge them a little bit. I do think the argument that he got into with J.J. Reddick at some point after the trade on the court during a Lakers game would be phenomenal. Like that might, that might be one of those, like, both guys being held back for real, not like a hold me back, but like a, I'm fighting you.
1:02:17 Speaker 04 By the way, great hold me back by your coach, Joe Missoula, this last week when Cassell almost fell over trying to, trying to hold him back from the refs. Did you see that?
1:02:26 Bill Simmons? I saw that. I also thought the hold me back of the year was Jeremiah Fears.
1:02:32 Speaker 04 Oh, he wants it all. No fears. Zero fears.
1:02:36 Bill Simmons? There was some fears early on, though, when it was just the two of them. Who was he? Who did he get into with?
1:02:41 Speaker 04 I can't remember.
1:02:42 Bill Simmons? It was a bigger guy who was mad at him.
1:02:44 Speaker 04 By the way, to your point about the Pelicans, they trade Alvarado. Otherwise, they're close for business because when you have the worst record in the NBA, you just, you can't, you can't contemplate anything. You can't contemplate any trades.
1:02:57 Speaker 04 They've lost in overtime to the Bucks last night. You've made this point before.
1:03:00 Bill Simmons? I saw it.
1:03:01 Speaker 04 It does feel like every single game is close and they lose every single game. It's, it's just uncanny.
1:03:07 Bill Simmons? They're up two with a minute left in 40 straight games.
1:03:10 Speaker 04 The deadline has passed. By the way, also Pelicans related.
1:03:15 Speaker 04 Astonishing
1:03:18 Speaker 04 how how little buzz I heard or even read about Zion Williamson. And his numbers are good. When I watched them play, I just, the pop isn't there as consistently as it used to be. And there are still, there are some games where the numbers also aren't there. His free throws are there. That's what he's kinda subsisting on. I'm like, it's, the, the numbers are what they are. The eye test for me is like, this guy, four nights out of five is not the guy that he looked like when he got hurt in that Lakers play-in game where he was single-handedly eviscerating the Lakers.
1:03:57 Bill Simmons? I thought he would have been a fun Warriors fuck a trade.
1:04:00 Speaker 04 Like there would, did you hear anything? I didn't hear even anything like on background talk to executives. Like I heard this team might take a flyer. His deal is non guaranteed. Like I heard nothing.
1:04:09 Bill Simmons? I don't think the Pelicans seem like they really want to do anything.
1:04:12 Speaker 04 Do their phones work?
1:04:14 Bill Simmons? As I've said, it's possible. As I've said to you, I would have traded Trey Murphy. I just would have. I, you can't tell me he's untouchable. My team sucks.
1:04:22 Speaker 04 Yeah, I, I did enjoy, I texted people this morning that I enjoyed Trey Murphy. Mike before the trade deadline, like I gotta put on a show just on the off chance I can get the fuck out of here. Like 44 points, like did Andy, is anyone watching? Is anyone watching? Throw the third pick in.
1:04:37 Bill Simmons? He, he was like a about to be divorced, 40 year old going to the bar in the best possible dress. Just hoping, hoping to get attention from anybody. Look at me, another three.
1:04:49 Bill Simmons? The guy that I thought would be the, who is your, he's not being mentioned at all. But I wouldn't be shocked if he was traded today guy because mine was Lou Dort.
1:04:59 Speaker 04 Uh, I mean, that's
1:05:00 Bill Simmons? That would have been the one. I wouldn't have been surprised by it, but I think people would have been surprised. Cause he's got a team option next year. He just signed with clutch. And I'm not positive. OKC needs him and Caruso and Wallace in a league where scoring is more paramount than ever.
1:05:17 Speaker 04 I would have said, I would have picked probably someone from Orlando, like Jalen Suggs or somebody like that, like just somebody
1:05:28 Bill Simmons? Or Anthony Black?
1:05:30 Speaker 04 I don't think they would move him, but like some, something like what Orlando did, what like they just, just, just like a change. Sort of like what Cleveland did, just like a, we gotta change up something because what we have is stagnating and like out of left field comes this. I would have probably have said want somebody there or I don't, I don't even know Portland, like Portland has kind of been radio silent, but I don't, I don't think anybody really wanted Jeremy Grant. And I don't know what else. I mean, Drew Holiday, I guess. I don't know.
1:05:58 Bill Simmons? I kind of like Portland's team.
1:06:00 Speaker 04 I mean,
1:06:00 Bill Simmons? I like watching them.
1:06:01 Speaker 04 They're locked in now, baby. They're getting into playing.
1:06:04 Bill Simmons? So deadline pass, these next three minutes will be when it's like, whoa, this happened. And we haven't had a whoa, this happened yet.
1:06:13 Bill Simmons? We didn't talk about, you didn't really give your take on the Simons Vucevic trade. As a member of the itch All-Stars, did you, did you feel like he has anything left in the tank? Could you see him in a playoff series? Never, he's never really had a chance to win a playoff series before.
1:06:27 Speaker 04 He's having his once every three years, good shooting year this year. So maybe that sustains for Boston. I think he's going to perk up a little bit, leaving a moribund Chicago team that had long run its course. And he's got the fact that he was traded for the Franz Wagner pick kind of hanging around his neck all the time there. I will say there have been, he's never been a good defensive player. There have been a lot of nights this season where he's trended toward the washed level of defense, not on offense. On offense, he's still a plus and all that.
1:06:59 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:07:00 Speaker 04 I need to see him perk up like 10% on defense to get like normal below average instead of like, wow, those feet look like they're really in cement.
1:07:08 Bill Simmons? Thirty-five.
1:07:10 Speaker 04 But he's thirty-five, but also like, Kada's going to start, that's set in stone. The guy's too good and he's been too good. You do have Garza, like, I'm not counting on him for a huge lift, but it's so helpful to have around in that sense.
1:07:24 Bill Simmons? One of my Boston sports fan threads has Mike Scher on it, who has always been a diehard Vucevic guy. Like every trade deadline, do we have a chance to get Vucevic? Like just loves him. And then the Celtics finally got him this year and it's like, eh, I wish it was three years ago. I was like, really? You've been calling for this since COVID? You wanted this guy, but it might, it might be too late. I, I really liked how Simons fit in. I would, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they signed Simons in the offseason on a different deal. If they had the ability to get creative in any way to try to get him.
1:08:00 Speaker 04 I, I liked.
1:08:00 Bill Simmons? Or sign and trade, whatever.
1:08:01 Speaker 04 I liked him too. Like he had added some real pop to their team after a rough start. And I just thought there was like a certain stability in having two of White, Pritchard, Simons, Brown.
1:08:13 Bill Simmons? All the time.
1:08:13 Speaker 04 All the time. Now, I think their argument would be Tatum. Could become one of those four, in which case we don't need Simons as much. But what do you like? Is this Pritchard is coming off the bench now? Is that a thing like I like because they lost Simons are now going to do this? Is that happening?
1:08:32 Bill Simmons? I think they have to stagger Pritchard and White for as much as they possibly can now because they only have two guards. That's why I was hoping for a Dusun move or somebody like that, like, uh, somebody that was a little trustworthy with the ball, but now they have to stagger it because that's it. And then they'll probably play together in the fourth quarter would be my guess. They're experimenting, they're going to experiment with a bunch of double bigs and things like that. Now, what would you tell a Miami fan right now?
1:08:58 Speaker 04 I would tell a Miami fan that, um, they were all in on Yanis and playing the waiting game the last 24 hours. And I, if I were them, if I were a Miami fan, I'd be a little worried that we had this window where we were in the waiting game. Minnesota traded out of it. Golden State traded out of it and like the Yanis team started falling away and we were maybe like the last real team standing. And then Yanis went away and yeah, we can trade four first round picks in the off season and we still have all the stuff we would have traded for him. But now it's going to be a more open, on the one hand, it's going to be more open because
1:09:40 Speaker 04 some team will lose in the playoffs and, and say, okay, now we got to go all in and we weren't before. On the other hand, perhaps he has more leverage, Yanis, to direct where he wants to go because he's on an expiring deal. But I, I do feel like maybe it was never real. Maybe they were never going to trade him. I don't know. I think Miami was under the impression that there was some chance, maybe, maybe like the dumber dumber, you're telling me there's a chance, chance, but some chance and.
1:10:04 Bill Simmons? This is what they do. It's like, here's 40 cents in the dollar for your best guy. Any interest? What? You don't want this?
1:10:12 Speaker 04 This is why.
1:10:12 Bill Simmons? Tyler Hero and Khalil Ware who doesn't play and picks.
1:10:18 Speaker 04 The Khalil Ware thing with, with the, the up and down minutes and like we're trying Bam and Ware together. We're going to start Bam and Ware together. That's our team to like now we never play them together. And sometimes we're just not going to play Ware at all in the second half has not helped.
1:10:31 Bill Simmons? Would you have traded Bam and as many picks and swaps as possible for Yanis?
1:10:39 Bill Simmons? Cause I would have.
1:10:41 Speaker 04 I mean, I think you probably have to because I love Bam.
1:10:47 Bill Simmons? I know you did.
1:10:47 Speaker 04 His contract is, is.
1:10:49 Bill Simmons? Back when your fingers used to work, you wrote a long Bam piece once.
1:10:52 Speaker 04 I love Bam. Bam's a winner. I, I think that was functionally not doable because Bam and Giannis have the same agent and I, the idea is to play them together, pair them together.
1:11:04 Bill Simmons? Cool. Unfortunately, somebody has to be in the honest trade.
1:11:08 Speaker 04 That's.
1:11:08 Bill Simmons? And you have one asset.
1:11:10 Speaker 04 That is true.
1:11:12 Bill Simmons? I'm trying to think who else is probably kicking themselves right now. I'm still, I don't know. I, I think this is such a weird NBA story. We still don't know for sure how badly he wanted to get traded. And we still don't know for sure what kind of asset he was.
1:11:30 Speaker 04 Can I just report something? Wait, who? Giannis?
1:11:34 Bill Simmons? I would have thought, I would have thought teams would be in a fistfight trying to get him. Oh, Cam Thomas, your guy. What happened?
1:11:40 Speaker 04 He got waived.
1:11:46 Speaker 04 Small window of silence.
1:11:50 Bill Simmons? Waived? Cut?
1:11:52 Speaker 04 Pick his team in free agency, baby.
1:11:56 Bill Simmons? Does, do you, you feel better about your summer dust up or no?
1:12:00 Speaker 04 No.
1:12:02 Bill Simmons? Wow, waived.
1:12:04 Speaker 04 Most depressing tweet of the day. Chris Haynes, no trades materialized for the Sacramento Kings and they held on to Domantas Sabonis, Zach Levine, DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk. It's like the laundry list. And Morant, we gotta talk about Morant. He's a grizzly still. Unless something crazy happened. Like it's 309.
1:12:22 Bill Simmons? He's a grizzly?
1:12:23 Speaker 04 He's a grizzly.
1:12:26 Bill Simmons? So.
1:12:27 Speaker 04 I had my Kings Morant jersey ready. Like I had it pre-ordered at NBA.com. Nice purple jersey.
1:12:34 Bill Simmons? Waived Cam Thomas.
1:12:36 Speaker 04 Well, look.
1:12:37 Bill Simmons? So who need, who needs, I mean, really this is this generation's Dion Waiters award potentially. Who needs a heat check guy off the bench the most? Could this be like a Celtic?
1:12:50 Speaker 04 It's a big grenade. It's a big grenade to throw onto your bench. It's like, he's, he's coming in hot. Like he's coming in hot. So.
1:12:58 Bill Simmons? So it's a team that's probably struggling for scoring in a bunch of different ways. That bench scoring is a disaster for them.
1:13:08 Bill Simmons? That's not a Detroit team, is it?
1:13:10 Speaker 04 I don't think they would mess around with, with the messing, messing around with their chemistry at all.
1:13:17 Speaker 04 Uh. Could Houston just go in there and be like, well.
1:13:21 Bill Simmons? That's, that's a team that does not need a chemistry.
1:13:24 Speaker 04 Well, that's, that's true.
1:13:25 Bill Simmons? Please no.
1:13:26 Speaker 04 I'm just thinking a team that can use a guy to come in and like, all right, go, go get hot, break in case of emergency. We don't need to talk more about Cam Thomas. I just wanted to note it.
1:13:35 Bill Simmons? No, I'm trying to, cause I do think he's.
1:13:39 Bill Simmons? No Cleveland, right?
1:13:41 Speaker 04 No.
1:13:43 Speaker 04 Minnesota, had they not, although I don't think he's Tim Connolly's kind of player. Had they not gotten a boost and the guard would have, guard play would have gotten, needed something.
1:13:53 Bill Simmons? A scale of one to 10, how shocked you to be OKC has picked up Cam Thomas?
1:13:59 Speaker 04 10.5.
1:14:01 Bill Simmons? 10.5.
1:14:02 Speaker 04 10.5. By the way, the McCain trade is a sneaky, I, I, I think you talked about it yesterday. That's a sneaky, interesting trade.
1:14:09 Bill Simmons? I loved it. I was, uh, I was kinda mad. That was another one I would have loved for the Celtics. McCain was just on the wrong team. I still think he's an asset. He's had a great career. He's won everywhere he's went and he just randomly ends up on a team with Maxey and Edgecombe together, which is probably the best young backcourt. Yeah, it's like, fine. I mean, they definitely paid a price for him. They gave up a first and three seconds. As you know, I don't care about seconds, but by NBA standards, that was a lot.
1:14:37 Speaker 04 Yeah. The Rockets pick this year, I think is the one.
1:14:39 Bill Simmons? Do you think McCain plays for them now?
1:14:42 Speaker 04 I don't see why he like, I mean, look, it's, it's a, it's a big integration on a team that's, he's definitely going to play in the regular season just because of how many players they have that are hurt. In the playoffs, I could see a scenario where offense is a little stuck in mud. Shay, Shay's on the bench for his rest period. Like, let's throw him in and see if he makes some shots. I mean, they tried AJ Mitchell in the finals last year. AJ Mitchell has obviously ascended into a big part of their team. I could see him getting on the floor.
1:15:09 Bill Simmons? What team did you want to trade for Ja Morant?
1:15:13 Bill Simmons? In your heart of hearts, just as for content.
1:15:16 Speaker 04 As a joke?
1:15:17 Bill Simmons? No, for content, but a trade that actually makes sense.
1:15:20 Speaker 04 I mean, I do think there's an argument for the Kings to do it. And I think they would have done it if they could have just done it for dead money and no assets, but that the Grizzlies rightfully are like, we're not doing that. We have two years left on his contract. I think he's a fine, for a team that has hemorrhaged actual good point guards and sent them flying all over the league. I think it's a fine buy low opportunity for them. They were always my favorite one. In terms of like, it's not like they're playing for anything. So if he messes up your chemistry or whatever, it doesn't really matter. I don't know. Did you have one?
1:15:55 Bill Simmons? Yeah, mine was Golden State.
1:15:58 Speaker 04 Wow.
1:15:59 Bill Simmons? Just to let's get weird.
1:16:01 Speaker 04 Are you trying to drive Steve Kerr out of coaching? I mean, what?
1:16:04 Bill Simmons? Maybe that'd be a piece of it. Well, one thing with Golden State is they don't really have anybody who can beat someone off the dribble other than Steph, who just has five guys guarding him at all times. Let's just set 100 picks for him. And I thought it would have been a really fun random wrinkle to just have Ja on that team trying to create space and attack. And now I'm a little less, I can't be as shaded over to Steph. I don't know. I would have like, I just felt like Golden State was at the point of their season. I guess they did it with Porzingis where they're just going to do some sort of weird trade. And maybe it turned out to be Porzingis. So we had no other trades? That's really it? Cam Thomas was our big news?
1:16:44 Speaker 04 Well, Zubot's on the live pod. Zubot's.
1:16:46 Bill Simmons? But that was, that was an hour ago.
1:16:49 Speaker 04 That was a while ago. Yeah. Nothing has happened of note, trade wise, since then.
1:16:56 Bill Simmons? So, big picture.
1:16:57 Speaker 04 Yeah.
1:16:59 Bill Simmons? Minnesota has increased their title on, kind of their title persona.
1:17:04 Speaker 04 Yep.
1:17:05 Bill Simmons? The Clippers might be out of the playoffs now.
1:17:09 Speaker 04 I mean, if Garland plays, and I'm excited to see this Niederhauser kid. He's been good when he's got minutes. If, if, if he's all right and Garland plays, I mean, who's passing them? That's out of the play in right now.
1:17:23 Bill Simmons? Well, you just mentioned if Garland plays and there's multiple stories about, uh, yeah, they're trying to figure out, can they use different, uh, implanted lifts for his sneakers to help his toes?
1:17:37 Speaker 04 Well, and there's also.
1:17:38 Bill Simmons? Basketball players need toes.
1:17:40 Speaker 04 There's also the Kawhi, like, at any moment, he could be like, Kawhi's away from the team for a week and whatever. Like, you just never know. But, I mean, Memphis isn't going to try, Dallas isn't going to try, Utah's not going to try, and everyone else is way too far behind.
1:17:52 Bill Simmons? So if you go last 25 games, um, net rating,
1:18:00 Bill Simmons? Miami is 15th at 12 and 13. So 12 and 13 in the last 25 games and did nothing at the trade deadline.
1:18:10 Bill Simmons? I just think this whole Miami thing is weird. I thought, I really thought at least they'd take a swing on Ja. I think it was going to be Sacramento or Miami as the realistic Ja teams.
1:18:20 Speaker 04 Good call.
1:18:20 Bill Simmons? As like the fuck it, they didn't even do that. So I don't know, what, what does Miami think is going to happen here?
1:18:26 Speaker 04 I don't know that they were ever super in on Ja. I, I just think they're like.
1:18:31 Bill Simmons? I don't blame them.
1:18:32 Speaker 04 I, I think.
1:18:32 Bill Simmons? But I just thought it was a possibility.
1:18:34 Speaker 04 I, I think they would probably look at it and say, given his availability issues over the last three seasons, is he $30 million better than Davion Mitchell? No, like, we're just not going to do it.
1:18:48 Bill Simmons? I wonder how much Florida and South Beach tied into it too.
1:18:53 Bill Simmons? That's at least a conversation in a meeting.
1:18:56 Speaker 04 Oh, there's no question you would talk about it if you were them.
1:18:58 Bill Simmons? Do you think Cleveland has more of a chance to win the title now than they did?
1:19:03 Speaker 04 You could argue that they are one of the big winners around the league because nobody around them in the East made a meaningful win now, like a big meaningful win now. But I mean, Alvarado helps the Knicks, Herter helps the Pistons, you know, Vucevic helps the Celtics, but nobody made the kind of like, oh, oh, crap, they're really, they're really going for it kind of move. I do think just Harden will play. Like I did the whole Harden, Harden, Harden, Garland thing on my pod, but it's a super interesting trade.
1:19:38 Bill Simmons? I listened to it. You had one really funny moment.
1:19:42 Bill Simmons? You, you were basically like glass half fulling how bad he is in the playoffs. And you said something and you were right, you weren't wrong, but you said something like, and Harden, you know, his playoff history speaks for itself, but every once in a while during a series, he'll have two good games.
1:20:01 Speaker 04 Just win in five.
1:20:02 Bill Simmons? Technically true.
1:20:03 Speaker 04 Just win in five, win all your series in five.
1:20:06 Bill Simmons? Two of seven and maybe in the last game you relied somebody else, maybe that'll work.
1:20:11 Speaker 04 I mean,
1:20:11 Bill Simmons? I thought that was funny.
1:20:12 Speaker 04 I do think, I mean, it's a, I just can't, I still can't believe that trade happened in the sense of like,
1:20:21 Speaker 04 Cleveland trading for James Harden, Cleveland trading Darius Garland, but just based on availability alone, they, they are better than they were before. They obviously didn't trust Garland to be available, but.
1:20:32 Bill Simmons? So the Clippers wanted upside, the Cavaliers wanted availability. And if you're putting James Harden on a team that has a chance to win the title, one of the conditions has to be, can somebody else score if there's a big game? And in their case, yes.
1:20:48 Speaker 04 This is one of the bizarro things of both the Clippers trading for James Harden and the Cavaliers trading for James Harden is you begin to talk yourself into it. By almost turning his weaknesses into a strength that fits your team like he can get us to game six and seven and then because he's reliable and he's available, he's a volume guy. And then we had this other guy who can get us over the hump when he, you know, does his thing, you know, the thing that he does. I'm like, I don't, what do we do? Like my, the logic is warping my, my brain.
1:21:17 Bill Simmons? Well, remember, I mean, if you ever did a documentary, it'd be about the greatest theoretical team of all time, as you called it, the Brooklyn Nets for what, two months?
1:21:26 Speaker 04 They were unstoppable.
1:21:27 Bill Simmons? Harden was off the ball a lot on that team and it just felt like every three was going in. Remember there were times when he was just kind of over there like ready to shoot and it was really terrifying. And I wonder if the Cavs can unlock that at all. But I also wonder like at his age and how many, how long he's been in the league? He's just so used to having the ball. Would he be cool with just not having the ball that much at this point of his career?
1:21:52 Speaker 04 He is the system. Like, I mean, there, there were times with Kawhi when he wouldn't have the ball all the time and that's going to be the case now. But there, the mid-season adjustment aspect of these trades is I think underrated in the euphoria of like now analyzing them and thinking about the fit. Like it's a big adjustment to plop him into your team.
1:22:13 Bill Simmons? Last thing on the Zubats trade, because I, I guess we're going to wrap it up soon because nothing else happened. Did the, did the Pacers, the more I'm thinking about it, give up too much for Zubats there? That could be the fifth pick in the draft.
1:22:25 Speaker 04 It's, it's, it's a very
1:22:27 Bill Simmons? That'd be a lot.
1:22:28 Speaker 04 It's a very good job by the Clippers to get, um, now I, I think the reporting is it becomes unprotected, but 2031, which is also a pretty valuable asset, actually.
1:22:39 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:22:40 Speaker 04 I'd, I'd rather have it that than 27.
1:22:42 Bill Simmons? That's a lot of assets. That's a good trade by the Clippers. You're back in it, Cahill.
1:22:47 Speaker 04 It's, it's a, if you're going to do that trade with Zubats on the contract that he's on, you got to get an absolute blue chip asset. And I'll bet they haggle for like top three protection, top six protection Pacers coming back saying that and they settled in a spot that makes sense. And, you know, again, I don't know this draft well enough.
1:23:03 Bill Simmons? Do you like that trade for the Clippers? I kind of like it.
1:23:05 Speaker 04 Me?
1:23:06 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:23:07 Speaker 04 Yeah. I, I like.
1:23:09 Bill Simmons? So they're getting two unprotected picks if this trade doesn't hit with the, in this draft and they're getting 29 and 31 from the Pacers. Unprotected picks, big commodity. You can always trade them. And Matherin will fill in some scoring and then they weren't winning the title anyway with Zubots.
1:23:26 Speaker 04 We'll see what Matherin actually is because they've been very protective of what is left of their cap space post Kawhi contract and maybe Kawhi takes up some of that cap space. I don't know. So I'm not sure that Matherin is going to be like part of their team. That doesn't mean they can't sign and trade him, but we'll see.
1:23:44 Bill Simmons? Well, you know, I'm on the record. I like Matherin. I, I think he's, I watched it in person. That's a guy that's not afraid of big moments and he was going against an OKC set of pit bulls that were about as frightening as you could find and was still pretty comfortable and having moments against them. I thought, I don't know. I just think that guy could be in a playoff series.
1:24:05 Speaker 04 Look, they made the finals last year. They're a game away from the championship and he was a reliable part of their rotation. Some nights it hit, some nights it didn't, but when it hit, it was like, all right, he just manufactured, you need to manufacture points sometimes. Like, man, we're playing a great defense. We're missing our threes. Like we need, this guy got us six free throws in three minutes that like kept us above water. You need, you need guys like that.
1:24:28 Bill Simmons? All right. So we're on Cam Thomas watch.
1:24:30 Speaker 04 Yeah.
1:24:31 Bill Simmons? We are sadly taking a hibernation break for Giannis watch, but I guess that heats up again around the draft.
1:24:41 Bill Simmons? Right?
1:24:41 Speaker 04 That's not too far away.
1:24:43 Bill Simmons? Conceivably, they could trade him during the finals if they wanted. More likely July 1st. And I think he blew it. I really do. I think he should have forced their hand, but who knows? Maybe the sports movie ending will be he comes back in April. They make the play in and Giannis goes on a legendary one with Ryan Rollins.
1:25:00 Speaker 04 See, you're joking. You're joking and I don't think that's going to happen. Shouldn't we at least acknowledge? That.
1:25:11 Speaker 04 It's kinda cool that part of him wants to be a one-team guy. Now, it's not all of him, and that's what's been frustrating, right?
1:25:17 Bill Simmons? I don't think he, I think he wanted to get traded. I just don't think he wanted to ask to get traded.
1:25:21 Speaker 04 I, I think you're probably right. Okay, I take it back.
1:25:23 Bill Simmons? If he said he wanted to be a one-team guy, he would've said, please don't trade me. I want to be a one-team guy.
1:25:27 Speaker 04 He keeps saying things like, you know, I love Milwaukee. If you told me that Milwaukee's going to contend for championships forever, the conversation's over. I want to be here forever, but I don't know if that's the case. I don't know what he wants, and he doesn't know what he wants, and that's why he's a Buck, baby.
1:25:41 Bill Simmons? It's a long relationship. It's like when, when your spouse, when it's like, I, I thought you weren't, you told me last week you weren't gonna drink wine anymore during the day. Yeah, I did, didn't I? Now I'm having a glass of Chardonnay. What, do you have a problem with that? That's Yanis, like, last week. I thought you told me you wanted to be traded. No, no, I want to stay here. And then a week later, you know what? It'd be great to get traded. What can I? I don't know. The Bucks were always pretty adamant that he wasn't as pushy to be traded as was being portrayed. We'll never know the truth.
1:26:15 Speaker 04 He didn't, um, nothing he said in public convinced me that he didn't want to be traded. Let's put it that way. Um, like-
1:26:24 Bill Simmons? It's a great point.
1:26:25 Speaker 04 Like, yeah. I like the wine, the wine metaphor is fun.
1:26:30 Bill Simmons? Zach Lowe, it was a true pleasure. We should mention, on the Zach Lowe Show, um, are you taping that tonight or tomorrow?
1:26:37 Speaker 04 We're gonna tape it tonight. I'm gonna make some calls for the next few hours and get ready. We're gonna tape it tonight, and, uh, it'll be up-
1:26:43 Bill Simmons? So that's popping up late night.
1:26:44 Speaker 04 Midnight, midnight, 1 a.m., something like that, and-
1:26:47 Bill Simmons? You can watch and listen to that on Spotify. You can watch it on Netflix as well. And then, uh, we're, I can't remember when we're starting on Sunday nights, but we're gonna be doing Sunday nights together on this podcast for a while.
1:26:58 Speaker 04 Pretty soon. Super Bowl's over. Go Seahawks.
1:27:00 Bill Simmons? Lot of basketball stuff. Zach Lowe, good to see you. We're gonna take a break. Coming back with Joe House, uh, talking Super Bowl next. Hey, I was lucky enough to get a son and a daughter through their early teens and their mid-teens in the social media era. And even though we were constantly monitoring it, there's still a whole bunch of stuff that can go wrong. And that's why Instagram teen accounts have automatic protections on by default. Built-in content settings for the content teens can see, contact limits for who can contact them, and time management tools like daily time limits. And sleep mode. Teens are automatically placed into teen accounts. Teens under 16 will need a parent's permission to change any of these settings to be less strict. Instagram will
1:27:42 Bill Simmons? continue adding built-in safety features to help create age-appropriate experiences. Learn more about teen accounts and Instagram's ongoing work to protect teens online at instagram.com/teenaccounts. This episode is brought to you by Sony Pictures Classics. "A Perfect Crime Film," says The Daily Beast. John Tortore gives a "career-best" performance. Don't miss the acclaimed new thriller, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. Tortore stars as an aging master pickpocket, whose latest score puts him in the crosshairs of a ruthless crime family. It's also starring Giancarlo Esposito, Tatiana Maslany, Will Price, and our guy, Steve Buscemi. See the film that The LA Times calls
1:28:24 Bill Simmons? "instantly classic, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York," now playing in theaters nationwide.
1:28:31 Bill Simmons? Welcome to We Kept the Receipts, presented by TaxAct, where we look back at our predictions and figure out who deserves a victory lap and who is completely off-base. And a lot of years, I'm in both camps. TaxAct helps you with actual receipts, like the kind that you can use for tax deductions or credits, and the ones that help you get your maximum refund every tax season. So, we're wrapping up football season right now, and I was really high on the Patriots, and on the Broncos, and on the Seahawks. But you know who else I was high on? The Las Vegas Raiders. I thought they were gonna be a playoff team. I thought the Bears were gonna be in the playoffs, too. You win some, you lose some, but I really thought the Patriots
1:29:15 Bill Simmons? were gonna be good. Did I pick them to make the big game? I did not. But you win some, you lose some. We Kept the Receipts. That was presented by TaxAct. This tax season, make your max refund the one prediction that actually pays off. Visit TaxAct.com to learn more. Conditions apply. See TaxAct.com for details. All right, Joe House is here doing yeoman's duty. Is that how you pronounce it? Yeoman's?
1:29:42 Speaker 05 Yeoman's.
1:29:43 Bill Simmons? Yeoman's? Who's yeoman?
1:29:45 Speaker 05 I don't know.
1:29:46 Bill Simmons? Oh, my God.
1:29:47 Speaker 05 With that gentleman's work.
1:29:47 Bill Simmons? That's like what our buddy Blue Boy called it Dukesney instead of Dukane. You're doing yeoman's work.
1:29:53 Speaker 05 Yeoman's.
1:29:54 Bill Simmons? And yeoman's work.
1:29:58 Bill Simmons? I already talked about the Anthony Davis trade with Zach Lowe. You are a Wizards fan. America wants your take. Let's hear it.
1:30:06 Speaker 05 I give it an A+ from a couple of different angles as a Washington fan. And I've seen the reasonable kind of caution that's out there. Here's the problem. There hasn't been anything to root for in terms of Washington in basketball in what feels like, feels like a full decade. I mean, really seriously.
1:30:29 Bill Simmons? 2017.
1:30:30 Speaker 05 There you go. Those playoffs were the last time that there was like enthusiasm. Now, always tip of the cap to Russell Westbrook, who dragged a sorry ass team into the eight seed in 2021 or whatever the year was. You know, showed Beattie Beal, this is the pathway to being an actual like, you know, let's go down and go after it kind of approach. And they got slaughtered by Philadelphia. That was the only other real sort of interesting competitive basketball team in the last 10 years. So the commitment by this front office, when you are doing the cost benefit analysis, the cost is very, very, very low.
1:31:12 Speaker 05 You have not bit down on any huge salaries. You haven't bit down on any extensions with anybody. But the the city's had enough. We want to see some competitive basketball. There is an enthusiasm. I've been going to games this this year. Sort of interested to see how the the the fans are reacting and how the kids themselves are developing. And there really is something here. When they play hard and when they were trying to win games, this little group with CJ McCollum and Chris Middleton. And you could tell when Washington was trying to win games because they would leave Middleton or McCollum or both in the game in the fourth quarter and say, hey, we're trying to win one.
1:31:51 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:31:51 Speaker 05 Um, but it was fun. And, you know, the Washington community has uh been supporting this young group, but it's a very small community. I mean, part of the problem is Ted Leonsis is sick of looking up at an empty stadium. Now, this is the the conundrum for the franchise, right? We've told everybody that we're tanking. We are going to tank. Uh, but please come to our games. That's a tough one to.
1:32:15 Bill Simmons? Well, you want to be where Charlotte is, where you have some assets. And then all of a sudden you start playing well and there's energy out of nowhere all of a sudden. I I didn't see, I I told Zach, I didn't see the risk in this. Um, you didn't really give up anything.
1:32:28 Speaker 05 Right.
1:32:28 Bill Simmons? You have the chance to revamp him as a trade asset. So that was the serious basketball analysis. Now let's talk about the funny part of this. This is just a classic Wizards trade. You're getting, you're getting a guy who peaked five years ago. And you're pairing him up with a guy who peaked four years ago. And they both look good together in the little screenshot things. And it's like, look, we got Anthony Davis and and Trey Young. And some young guys, come see us, but it's the it's the guys who peaked a while ago, which is what you went through with. I mean, how many people do you want to go through here? But this was the Antoine Jamison.
1:33:06 Speaker 05 This is a long time ago. That's not this era.
1:33:09 Bill Simmons? Getting Bernard King.
1:33:12 Speaker 05 You're like, why are we going to the history books?
1:33:14 Bill Simmons? This is getting Mark Price.
1:33:16 Speaker 05 Well, Mark Price could play when they acquired him.
1:33:19 Bill Simmons? He immediately got hurt. Who are some of the other classics?
1:33:22 Speaker 05 I mean, the I'm surprised that you've you've taken this on. Michael Jordan's not a bad example.
1:33:28 Bill Simmons? Michael Jordan may be the best example.
1:33:31 Speaker 05 He might be the best one. Now, he put himself in because he had an ownership interest in the team. So he acquired himself.
1:33:37 Bill Simmons? Rashard Lewis was another classic.
1:33:40 Speaker 05 I mean, it's not necessary.
1:33:42 Bill Simmons? I'm just saying.
1:33:44 Speaker 05 Different front office for the most of the era.
1:33:46 Bill Simmons? I like it. It makes sense. You're taking advantage of a franchise that is so scarred by the worst trade in the history of the NBA that they just want to erase all evidence that it happened. They're like, we need to get this guy off the team. He's a walking reminder that we traded Luka Doncic for 10 cents on the dollar and we just need to get him away. And that's why they did it. I I like the gamble because worst case scenario, you didn't lose anything. Best case scenario, he's an expiring contract next year. You didn't have to get an extension. And then who knows?
1:34:18 Speaker 05 Player option, but he wants the extension. So.
1:34:21 Bill Simmons? You might be able to rehab him into like a real trade asset in February or somebody you want to keep.
1:34:26 Speaker 05 Same thesis for Trey, by the way.
1:34:28 Bill Simmons? Yeah, well, Trey, I think we have a better idea.
1:34:31 Speaker 05 I think he's motivated, though, to rehabilitate himself to show what kind of a player he can be as a facilitator.
1:34:37 Bill Simmons? Could he be motivated to make some threes?
1:34:39 Speaker 05 Davis just needs to play. I'd rather that Trey pass the ball than than shoot the three.
1:34:44 Bill Simmons? It's hilarious you've talked yourself into this already because Davis was, I think, a top five this century guys you were the most frustrated by.
1:34:52 Speaker 05 Well, because he's he's.
1:34:54 Bill Simmons? You hate guys that don't play.
1:34:56 Speaker 05 Every other Davis. I mean, he plays every other day. So but for the when we're thinking about it in the context of trying to develop all all of this boils down to immense pressure on these ping pong balls. He's, you know, shaken out in this lottery machine.
1:35:12 Bill Simmons? So you have two guys that aren't going to play again this year, probably. You have a young team that's probably gonna lose. You have a real chance to get one of the top four picks. Put them with Sar, put them with Trey Johnson.
1:35:26 Bill Simmons? And then we like George, we talked about him on the trade value pod. And then you have AD and Trey as the wild cards. And you have trade bait if you want to like go all in and get somebody. I didn't mind it. I think the Wizards have been smart for a couple of years now. I like everything they've done. I can't even ding them on the Trey Johnson pick. Cause I don't know who else they should have taken. You could have said like, oh, we should take a Cedric Howard, but they wouldn't have done that last year.
1:35:49 Speaker 05 Yeah, nobody had anybody.
1:35:50 Bill Simmons? Nobody had Cedric Howard going fifth. Like you can't do the redraft and be like, oh, they blew it.
1:35:55 Speaker 05 I know. They didn't, they didn't blow it.
1:35:57 Bill Simmons? The Nets might have blown it. So that was the pick after them. Okay, Super Bowl. So Drake May seems fine. I feel a lot better than I did on Sunday's podcast with the Cuz.
1:36:09 Speaker 05 Locking on wood for it to stay that way.
1:36:12 Bill Simmons? I'm incredibly confident.
1:36:17 Bill Simmons? I feel great. I love that everybody loves Seattle. I love it. I've made a lot of the cases the last couple of weeks about their defense is really good. I don't think it's great. I don't think they can overpower us. It's not one of those defenses that's gonna get 10 sacks. I think their offensive line has some, some holes. Like one of the guards, Milton Williams and Barmer just pushing up the middle. I think they can do some damage. I think our defense can match their defense. And then the wild card would be Drake May outplaying Sam Darnold.
1:36:49 Bill Simmons? Pat's plus four and a half line hasn't budged.
1:36:52 Speaker 05 Yep.
1:36:52 Bill Simmons? And I've liked it the whole time. I like them and little teases. I think you could talk me into a tease with taking them to double digits with the over. Just taking them to 7.5, knocking down the over a little bit. Pat's money line, this is, I honestly feel like I'm watching 2001 again. No respect. Brady says he doesn't have a dog in the race, which really offended all the Pats fans. I did an Instagram video about that yesterday. You don't have a dog in the race, Tom Brady, really? Just offensive. I, I, I don't understand that at all.
1:37:25 Bill Simmons? And I love the spot and most importantly, I don't see anyone picking the Pats. It feels like this is Seattle across the board. This is a coronation. How did things change in four weeks? They beat the depleted Niners twice and they barely beat the Rams. And Stafford threw all over the place on them. The Rams moved the ball the whole game. So why is this a juggernaut?
1:37:45 Speaker 05 Who said it's a juggernaut? They, they.
1:37:48 Bill Simmons? It's been treated that way?
1:37:49 Speaker 05 I don't think it is. All, all of this to me lines up with the priors and what we have observed over the, the entirety of the season. Which is to say, you know, the Seattle was sort of power rated in a certain place, near the top of the league. For going on however, a lot many weeks, you want to say 12 weeks now, 13 weeks?
1:38:08 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:38:09 Speaker 05 And the Patriots have been ascending. They weren't rated at the top at the beginning of the season. Because they lost to the Raiders and they lost to the Steelers. So it's taken some time for this, for the Patriots. You know, the true Patriots version of this team to reveal itself.
1:38:25 Bill Simmons? 15 to 16 wins.
1:38:27 Speaker 05 And, and the playoff games didn't really instill a shit ton of confidence from the offensive side, right?
1:38:34 Bill Simmons? Okay, but why are people throwing out the weather part? That's the part I don't get. Why, why are people discounting this? Sunday night against the Chargers, freezing. Houston game was one of the coldest games in the history of the franchise. And then Denver, blizzard in the second half.
1:38:50 Speaker 05 So the Denver game.
1:38:51 Bill Simmons? Zero win show.
1:38:51 Speaker 05 It is fine in terms of the weather thing. He also played a guy.
1:38:57 Bill Simmons? Jared Stidham, we got lucky. That, I mean, that's like, if they just go up 10, nothing, I think the Pats probably lose.
1:39:02 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:39:03 Bill Simmons? I also don't know if Seattle has the type of team that I would be the most worried about from a defensive standpoint against the Pats. It's the guys that weren't like the Will Anderson type. Benito, like those are the guys that the Pats, just the tackles have had trouble just staying in front of, and they've had to change their offense in a bunch of ways to chip those guys. Second protection. Seattle's like a push up the middle. Steve, that's where they get their pressure. They don't get a ton of sacks and Lawrence is the best guy they have.
1:39:33 Speaker 05 He's very good.
1:39:33 Bill Simmons? But we've been okay like blocking those guys. So, I don't know. I think you can throw in them. Is there a cornerback on Seattle you love?
1:39:42 Speaker 05 It's just a very solid secondary.
1:39:44 Bill Simmons? It's solid. Everybody's solid.
1:39:45 Speaker 05 Yeah, yeah. And they get the benefit of pressure from that that front. That makes quarterbacks, you know, the quarterbacks aren't sitting back there going, getting to third reads.
1:39:57 Bill Simmons? And the Darnold pressure stats are fantastic. I mean, he's basically in the bottom five in a bunch of different categories. If you can actually get in his ass, which I think the Patriots can do. And I, I really think people got thrown off by those two San Francisco games. When they had this patchwork team that included Keon White, who we waved. We basically traded him for a seventh round pick and he's playing all the time for the Dodgers. It just wasn't a good defense. They did an okay job against the Rams.
1:40:26 Bill Simmons? Blocking them and stuff, but I'm also not positive how good the Rams defense was. Like we saw the Panthers going up and down on them.
1:40:31 Speaker 05 Rams up front are super solid.
1:40:33 Bill Simmons? Solid. Not, not amazing. They're not Houston.
1:40:36 Speaker 05 Are the Patriots amazing up front?
1:40:38 Bill Simmons? I think with Williams back, it's gonna be really hard to run on them.
1:40:41 Speaker 05 There's no question that both teams are taking away the run. So this, this is the, the true fascinating challenge.
1:40:49 Bill Simmons? The QBs.
1:40:49 Speaker 05 It's Kubiak versus McDaniel, right? And we're gonna have to see some wrinkles out of these offenses, some things we haven't seen.
1:40:59 Bill Simmons? Right.
1:41:00 Speaker 05 Uh, and that's why I think all of the Kenneth Walker enthusiasm is well placed. He's super dynamic and as you see him as the principal guy getting touches. Uh, I've been impressed by like, oh, he, he, look at how he moves.
1:41:14 Bill Simmons? Right.
1:41:14 Speaker 05 He moves, you know, kind of in a Bijon way.
1:41:17 Bill Simmons? But they, he's only a 17 and 19 carry game guy. We've never seen him have more carries than that.
1:41:23 Speaker 05 I don't, there, I don't think.
1:41:24 Bill Simmons? Their backup's terrible.
1:41:25 Speaker 05 That, uh, it makes no sense whatsoever for them to, to, to rush 19 times, try and rush that many times against the Patriots.
1:41:32 Bill Simmons? Well, some props that I was looking at and Sal and I went over some of these. We have to make three picks, three picks, right? For a ring of 107?
1:41:40 Speaker 05 You're asking me?
1:41:41 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I think it's three.
1:41:42 Speaker 05 How, how would I know?
1:41:43 Bill Simmons? It was four, four, four, three. Maybe it's five. Is it five?
1:41:50 Speaker 05 It'd have to be five. That's too many. I think it's three.
1:41:53 Bill Simmons? Four, five, maybe it was five, five, four, three. That's what it was. Five, five, four, three.
1:41:59 Speaker 05 America loves this.
1:42:00 Bill Simmons? Yeah. Great contest. The fantasy guys have a chance to win. They're like, what's the prize? I was like, there's no prize. We're gonna pretend this contest never happened.
1:42:08 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:42:08 Bill Simmons? Figure out a better version of it next year.
1:42:12 Bill Simmons? Remandre, 10 plus yards rushing in the first quarter.
1:42:20 Bill Simmons? That one jumped out to me.
1:42:22 Speaker 05 Why?
1:42:23 Bill Simmons? Because I think the Pats are, the way they've done, they've been very conservative in these first quarters. And I think they're going to establish the run. And they probably have two run plays for that first quarter that they feel like they can get on Seattle. And I just think they're going to test them and try to do it. And so they can set up the play action for the next couple of quarters. So I was looking at one parlay was Remandre 10 plus rushing yards first quarter with the over of 36 and a half points for the game. I think 36 and a half, I like that number because it's really rare for a Super Bowl to go lower than that. Like the only one I could think of is Rams, Pats, like eight years ago. You, two teams are going to get to 37 points. They're running like crazy plays, right? Like, what are the odds? You don't like it?
1:43:06 Speaker 05 Well, I'm worried about a 24 to 10 game.
1:43:11 Bill Simmons? Interesting. I don't think either team is going to score 10 points or less.
1:43:16 Speaker 05 Okay.
1:43:16 Bill Simmons? I just don't think that Seattle is going to be able to move the ball at least a little bit. And then I just the Pats, if it's normal weather, I don't see how they're going to get shut down. I'd be really surprised by that. I don't think the Seattle team defensively is like some of these other great defenses we've had. It's not the OO Ravens. It's not the Seahawks against the Broncos. It's not the Patriots against the Rams in that Super Bowl.
1:43:41 Speaker 05 But they're certainly as good as the three defenses that the Patriots just played and had a ton of trouble with. They're certainly as good as those three defenses.
1:43:50 Bill Simmons? Well, I don't think they're as good as Houston's defense.
1:43:52 Speaker 05 They're in the neighborhood. They're, they're not.
1:43:56 Bill Simmons? Solid weather this game, unless it starts raining, which is 30% chance.
1:44:01 Speaker 05 I don't know.
1:44:01 Bill Simmons? It's going to be 61 degrees.
1:44:03 Speaker 05 Why are you so captivated by the weather?
1:44:05 Bill Simmons? Because I think the Pats had trouble in bad weather. I don't, they were a different team. I watched them all year. They weren't, they just didn't get the same explosive plays. All year they were getting explosive plays. They didn't get them in those three games in the same way.
1:44:17 Speaker 05 Because those defenses are really fucking good. They're the three best defenses that the Patriots played.
1:44:21 Bill Simmons? I know, but come on, they, they basically played two and a half halves.
1:44:24 Speaker 05 Slicing that apple in half. You, I'll give you a little bit. I'll give you a quarter chunk of an apple in terms of the weather, but I'm not giving you half the apple. Like the weather.
1:44:33 Bill Simmons? Remandre.
1:44:35 Bill Simmons? Yeah, it's funny though, because the Rams Bears was 2017 and the Rams offense looked like shit the whole game. People were like, ah, the weather. Like, so why, why did they get the weather?
1:44:44 Speaker 05 It was the weather. That was colder.
1:44:46 Bill Simmons? Same thing for the Pats. It wasn't colder. It was the same. The Houston game was colder than the Bears game. We had like the freezing sleet stuff. Drake May over 225 pass rush combined.
1:45:01 Speaker 05 225 pass rush. So you, we both feel pretty good.
1:45:05 Bill Simmons? Basically gets around 190 to 200 passing and 30 to 35 rushing, some combination. He might be able to beat that by himself, especially if they can't run the ball. You put that with Pats plus seven and a half, that's minus 120. JSN, one reception every quarter. What do you think the odds are? Just one, just one reception.
1:45:30 Speaker 05 Little north of even?
1:45:32 Bill Simmons? Plus 100.
1:45:34 Speaker 05 Look at this. All right. I don't feel bad about that.
1:45:37 Bill Simmons? One catch a quarter for JSN. Figure like bubble screen, over the middle, one deep pass. Seattle has the ball once a quarter. He's just not going to touch the ball on a drive. He's gonna have to touch the ball every drive.
1:45:51 Speaker 05 Seems like it. They certainly will be featuring him, it seems.
1:45:56 Bill Simmons? Lawrence Sack, plus 120, I think is an awesome bet. The Pats gave up five sacks in three games. And really, it probably would have been more if they hadn't gone so conservative in the second half of the Denver game.
1:46:09 Speaker 05 Five sacks a game? 15 total sacks? Yes. They did do that.
1:46:12 Bill Simmons? It probably would have been more if the Blizzard hadn't come. AJ Barner rushing TD, 18 to one.
1:46:20 Speaker 05 That's fun.
1:46:21 Bill Simmons? That's, that's just the tush push on the one yard line.
1:46:24 Speaker 05 That's a fun one.
1:46:24 Bill Simmons? 18 to one. They played this game 18 times. That's not gonna happen once.
1:46:28 Speaker 05 Yeah. 50 bucks out of my pocket on that one.
1:46:31 Bill Simmons? Tonga touchdown. Mentioned this on Sunday with Mike Frabel doing the, I'm gonna pass it forward to the guy who's not a skill player near the end zone. That's 75 to one. Wanted to fight that. Drake May, second quarter, over 71 and a half passing receiving yards.
1:46:53 Speaker 05 Say that again. Drake May.
1:46:55 Bill Simmons? Oh, second quarter only.
1:46:56 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:46:57 Bill Simmons? Seventy-one and a half passing, receiving yards. That's minus one twelve.
1:47:01 Speaker 05 Why, what's passing, receiving?
1:47:02 Bill Simmons? I'm sorry, pass rush.
1:47:05 Speaker 05 Oh, pass and rush. Okay, okay, okay.
1:47:09 Speaker 05 So, one run for eleven yards.
1:47:12 Bill Simmons? Figure you get the ball at least twice in the second quarter. Maybe even a third time.
1:47:18 Speaker 05 Can't turn the ball over. Can't have three and out.
1:47:22 Bill Simmons? This team has always been slow first quarter.
1:47:24 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:47:24 Bill Simmons? Kind of gain steam second quarter. I thought that was a good one.
1:47:27 Speaker 05 Well, they have an outstanding record, um, over the course of the season in terms of first half. They've been dominant, straight up and against the spread, first half, the Patriots have.
1:47:38 Bill Simmons? Well, that leads me to the next pick.
1:47:43 Bill Simmons? Patriots.
1:47:45 Bill Simmons? First half tie. Second half Patriots win.
1:47:50 Speaker 05 Shreks, where Shreks at?
1:47:53 Bill Simmons? What do you think that is for this game?
1:47:55 Speaker 05 Um, it's a big number.
1:47:57 Bill Simmons? First half tie, Patriots win second, second half in the game.
1:48:03 Speaker 05 Plus, is that like twelve to one?
1:48:06 Bill Simmons? Twenty-seven to one.
1:48:12 Speaker 05 Oh, man.
1:48:13 Bill Simmons? Ten, ten at halftime?
1:48:16 Bill Simmons? Three, three, seven, seven?
1:48:18 Speaker 05 Tie at the half. I really don't. Could be seventeen, seventeen.
1:48:21 Bill Simmons? Sort of my favorite bets.
1:48:25 Bill Simmons? Barnard, just to score a TD is plus two thirty. So you get all touch, push stuff, plus anything around the goal line that's not JSN or cup.
1:48:34 Speaker 05 I don't hate it.
1:48:36 Bill Simmons? Remandre over forty-nine and a half yards rushing.
1:48:42 Speaker 05 I don't know.
1:48:43 Bill Simmons? Remandre, most rushing yards in the game, plus two seventy.
1:48:47 Speaker 05 Huh.
1:48:52 Speaker 05 If he fumbles, will they keep giving him the ball?
1:48:54 Bill Simmons? He hasn't fumbled in three months.
1:48:56 Speaker 05 I understand.
1:48:58 Bill Simmons? So the Remandre plus 270, my question is, if the Patriots shut down Walker, which they've, every running back they've gone against, I think, with Milton Williams in the game, has been, what, 52 yards and under, something like that? I don't think anyone's gotten a 60 on them.
1:49:13 Speaker 05 Yeah, there's a, there's a thing where if Milton Williams has played in the game more than 50% of the snaps on defense, no running back has rushed for over 50 yards, I think. I think that's the stat.
1:49:24 Bill Simmons? Okay. So could Remandre get to 58 and Walker's like 17 for 49? And I have Remandre plus 270? Plus 270 is the, the catch with that one.
1:49:36 Speaker 05 My, my issue isn't Walker. My issue is, is your other running back. Cause what if he pops one?
1:49:42 Bill Simmons? Yep.
1:49:44 Bill Simmons? Well, that's the other one that Sal and I talked about the other day, the, the Henderson,
1:49:50 Bill Simmons? I think 80 plus yards was 25 to one.
1:49:53 Speaker 05 Yeah, the Henderson ladder makes some sense to me, like little, you know,
1:49:56 Bill Simmons? It's just one one.
1:49:57 Speaker 05 Tenth of a unit plays court, you know, whatever, couple, couple of, you know, 20 buck plays here and there.
1:50:04 Bill Simmons? 25 to one, he's broken a 65 yarder and 69 yarder.
1:50:09 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:50:11 Bill Simmons? One of my favorite, favorite bets, Matt Collins, 50 plus receiving yards, plus 310. I talked about this with Sal on Sunday. In the bigger games, before he got hurt, he was always prominently involved with, and he's probably other than Diggs, the favorite receiver for, for Maine, like a big third down guy. He always seems to get like a 28 yarder over the middle or something.
1:50:33 Speaker 05 I like this Hollins. I like getting involved in Hollins.
1:50:36 Bill Simmons? Cooper Cup, over 40 plus yards, plus 138.
1:50:41 Bill Simmons? So the case here is he's going to play a ton of snaps.
1:50:45 Bill Simmons? They need him for the blocking. I think the Pats are just going to try to take out Smith and Jigba completely. They're not going to, but they're going to try because they have the right. They have Gonzalez, they have Marcus Jones that can stay with them on the short stuff. They're just going to shift everything to him and Cup's going to be out there all the time. And does Cup become like, fine, you're giving us this, we'll keep taking it. Kind of thing. Forty plus seemed low to me. I thought they, I thought he was weirdly essential for them in those playoff games, even if his stats weren't, they reflect it, right?
1:51:16 Speaker 05 He made, you know, in, in, in many respects, the play of the game on that conversion.
1:51:25 Bill Simmons? Any defensive or special teams touchdown? I wish this line was better. It's plus two, 10.
1:51:31 Speaker 05 Nah, I'm not messing with that.
1:51:32 Bill Simmons? It doesn't seem high enough, right? Yeah. Doesn't seem high enough. There's some Marcus Jones, Super Bowl MVP stuff that we talked about Sunday. That's a hundred to one. A couple of people have mentioned this MVP one to me if the Pats win. Milton Williams at two, 25 to one. What's the scenario for him here? Like a sack fumble, he gets it.
1:51:59 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:51:59 Bill Simmons? A second sack.
1:52:01 Speaker 05 He recovers it.
1:52:02 Bill Simmons? The Seahawks can't run at all and then the Pats don't.
1:52:05 Speaker 05 Into the end zone on one, right?
1:52:07 Bill Simmons? Pats don't do a lot on offense, so it's like a 17 of six type game.
1:52:13 Speaker 05 MVP for him means it was a strip sack fumble. He recovers it himself and he runs it into the end zone.
1:52:19 Bill Simmons? Safety, like he just kind of takes over the game.
1:52:22 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:52:23 Bill Simmons? I thought two, 25 was high.
1:52:26 Speaker 05 Big number.
1:52:27 Bill Simmons? Anything, what, what's been your favorite stuff? What have you been looking at? I know you've been on Ringer Gambling Show.
1:52:33 Speaker 05 Yeah, I, I mean, I'm all over all of the Kenneth Walker. You know, that, that's the most popular bet, I think, that, that's out there. And all anybody's talked about for, for two weeks is Kenneth Walker receiving yards. But I think that that's, that fits exactly the way that Seattle's going to, going to try and, and, and play this. I like some of the.
1:52:53 Bill Simmons? Is that too popular?
1:52:55 Speaker 05 It might be too popular. Yeah. I mean, you know. I like the idea of both quarterbacks throwing an interception. I'll play it individually and together.
1:53:03 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:53:04 Speaker 05 Um, I think there are going to be turnovers in this game.
1:53:08 Speaker 05 The May rushing yards, uh, you know, these are, I'm go, this is all bread and butter stuff, stuff that, that people have covered, but these are the ones that I've actually bet, like what's on my card. Hunter Henry over, um, in terms of yardage. Think that's going to be an important part. The one thing that.
1:53:25 Bill Simmons? Well, you're going shock.
1:53:26 Speaker 05 Seattle. Well, it, these, these were all bets that were available as soon as the market opened and then I bet, and then, you know, prices have changed.
1:53:33 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:53:35 Speaker 05 But that this is, you know,
1:53:40 Speaker 05 those all make sense to me. That's the script. Well, we did a couple crazy ones with the cousin Sal this week. I bet on, um, Sheheed to at some point exceed 19 and a half miles per hour on the next gen stats.
1:53:57 Bill Simmons? Wow.
1:53:58 Speaker 05 As a ball, you know, carrying the ball. And I think you get the benefit of a, of a kick return. So if he gets, gets out and gets going a little bit, uh, or, or, you know, gets a catch out on the perimeter and gets going. 19 and a half miles per hour. That, that was, that's plus four. That was a nice number. Not, no, no, not plus 420. I can't remember. No, that was minus 114 for him to go over 19 and a half.
1:54:21 Bill Simmons? Is that on Fanduel?
1:54:22 Speaker 05 Yes, yes. It's, it's, it's in the specials.
1:54:26 Bill Simmons? Really?
1:54:26 Speaker 05 A bunch of guys you can gamble on their, their, their highest speed. Will they get to 18 and a half miles an hour? Yes or no?
1:54:32 Bill Simmons? Sheheed 19 miles an hour.
1:54:34 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:54:35 Bill Simmons? But he would have to make a big play at that point.
1:54:37 Speaker 05 You need, he need, you need him at 20 miles an hour. So you need him either in a kick return capacity or, or a, uh, you know,
1:54:45 Bill Simmons? Yeah, but if you're going to do that, why not just bet on him to have a touchdown?
1:54:49 Speaker 05 You could, you could.
1:54:50 Bill Simmons? If he's running 20 miles an hour, that means he's running to the end zone.
1:54:54 Speaker 05 He could run 20 miles an hour and get tackled. It takes the pressure off of getting in the end zone.
1:54:59 Bill Simmons? That's pretty good. Um, I like, you mentioned the walker. So.
1:55:06 Bill Simmons? 25 plus rushing yards for him. I'm sorry, receiving yards is plus 114.
1:55:12 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:55:12 Bill Simmons? 30 is plus 162. That's one real route that goes for like 22 yards, which is the play every Patriots fan is terrified of in this game. The slow linebackers and something designed and the receiver coming out, the running back receiver coming out in space and making a play.
1:55:29 Speaker 05 Absolute favorite. Love it.
1:55:32 Bill Simmons? So that's 25. We could make that one of the, uh, one of the bets, one of the ringer bets.
1:55:39 Speaker 05 I support it. I endorse it wholeheartedly.
1:55:42 Bill Simmons? 25 plus. You know who else is 25 plus? Matt Collins. Minus 114, 25 plus receiving yards could also be a ringer one for us. You like that?
1:55:55 Speaker 05 I like both of those. How many do we have to do?
1:55:58 Bill Simmons? I don't know. I'll just do, I'll do four.
1:56:02 Speaker 05 The people can choose.
1:56:04 Bill Simmons? Um, the, yeah, the people. So we like Collins. We like Walker. Do you like Lawrence getting a sack?
1:56:09 Speaker 05 Yes. Love that. Adore it. Yes. Huge. Big time. Bigly. Yes. Do it.
1:56:15 Bill Simmons? And did you like, did you like, uh, JSN to get a reception every quarter at plus 100?
1:56:22 Speaker 05 That's fine. That's a good one.
1:56:25 Bill Simmons? All right. So here's what we're doing. Oh, I really like the over though. Did you like Pats plus seven and a half? I do like the burner one too. Pats plus seven and a half with Drake over 225 passing rushing yards, minus 120.
1:56:47 Bill Simmons? Or would you rather do Pats plus four and a half?
1:56:50 Speaker 05 I have Pats plus 10 and a half and under, uh, 51 and a half.
1:56:59 Bill Simmons? Now that makes me nervous.
1:57:00 Speaker 05 You don't like the under?
1:57:02 Bill Simmons? I just think Super Bowls weird shit happens.
1:57:05 Speaker 05 That's a true story.
1:57:07 Bill Simmons? You just have.
1:57:09 Speaker 05 The lid would really have to come off. The thing that's crazy is you have the number one and number two most efficient pass offenses.
1:57:18 Bill Simmons? Right.
1:57:18 Speaker 05 And you have the top two run defenses when Milton Williams plays. So what is that going to push the teams into? It's why I think you're Remandre, that it's interesting to me that 10 yards in the first quarter bit. Because that's the zag for the Patriots. Can we, let's, let's take a shot at establishing the run.
1:57:38 Bill Simmons? Right.
1:57:39 Speaker 05 Maybe an outside run kind of concept.
1:57:41 Bill Simmons? So Pat's plus 10 and a half is minus 310 on FanDuel. And that would mean the over would have to go to
1:57:51 Bill Simmons? 39 and a half.
1:57:54 Bill Simmons? Pat's 10 and a half over basically 40 plus points and up.
1:58:00 Bill Simmons? We could do as a bet.
1:58:02 Speaker 05 What, what's the price?
1:58:03 Bill Simmons? That's minus 119.
1:58:05 Speaker 05 Okay.
1:58:08 Speaker 05 You prefer an over to an under?
1:58:12 Bill Simmons? I think both teams are going to move the ball better than people realize.
1:58:15 Speaker 05 Okay.
1:58:16 Bill Simmons? Because
1:58:20 Bill Simmons? I just think that Seattle's going to be able to throw the ball in the Pats.
1:58:24 Bill Simmons? Davis will have at least one P I. Right?
1:58:29 Bill Simmons? And just in general, the Super Bowl is when you break out all your shit. This is like I'm having guests over and it's like, do I want to just put chips and pretzels out for them? Or am I going to fucking make shit? Am I making people wood fire pizzas? And am I, did I go to the market and buy some cheese? And is there like a salami pursueto plate? Like you're going all out.
1:58:50 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:58:53 Speaker 05 Let's go. Something delicious. The pork secreto, get the pork secreto, that guy who cooks. Oh, yeah. Maybe some, that's one, some pork.
1:59:04 Bill Simmons? Right before you passed out. So you like the, are you okay with the over 39 and a half?
1:59:10 Speaker 05 Yeah, yeah, I am okay with that.
1:59:14 Bill Simmons? Okay. I really want to do the Pats plus four and a half though, just as a.
1:59:17 Speaker 05 Go ahead. Go ahead, you can. You're, you're the decider. I'm just the consigliere.
1:59:25 Bill Simmons? Okay.
1:59:27 Bill Simmons? The Ringer 107 is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. All spreads are subject to change. On this podcast in the playoffs, we are 7-5 with the spreads. The actual Ringer 107 picks have not been as good because we've gotten too artsy-fartsy. First pick, Pats plus 4.5. I just think this is a three-point game. I think you're getting a point and a half on the Pats side because of how they looked in the weather and because people aren't sure about Drake May's shoulder. I think Drake May's shoulder is fine. Second bet, we like these two props. Two guys to get 25-plus receiving yards. I just thought we could have probably parlayed these together.
2:00:10 Speaker 05 Well, we can do that.
2:00:13 Bill Simmons? Can we do that?
2:00:13 Speaker 05 Not to do it on the show, but we can do it.
2:00:15 Bill Simmons? No, but we could do that as the bet, but...
2:00:17 Speaker 05 America can do it.
2:00:19 Bill Simmons? Matt Collins, 25-plus yards, that's -114. Anytime he's actually been healthy, which has been most of the season, he plays a lot of snaps, they need him for blocking, and May goes to him. So that's one. Kenneth Walker, 25-plus receiving yards at -114. For the wheel route, we can do that one, or we can do Lawrence getting a sack for Seattle at plus 120.
2:00:44 Speaker 05 Isn't the Walker prop at 25 yards plus money? Because the regular prop is like 20, 20.5 or 21.5. It's not all the way up to 25 receiving yards.
2:00:57 Bill Simmons? I just looked at it.
2:01:00 Speaker 05 I thought you were giving us a little bit of a slight plus money bet.
2:01:05 Bill Simmons? Receiving yards alternate. I'm looking at it right now.
2:01:11 Bill Simmons? Yeah, 25-plus is plus 114.
2:01:14 Speaker 05 Yeah, plus.
2:01:15 Bill Simmons? Yeah, plus.
2:01:16 Speaker 05 That's what I thought.
2:01:17 Bill Simmons? My bad. Plus 114. And then, or Lawrence sack at plus 120. What do you like more?
2:01:25 Speaker 05 We have to choose?
2:01:26 Bill Simmons? Probably because I want to do Pats plus 10.5 with the over of 39.5.
2:01:31 Speaker 05 Okay.
2:01:37 Speaker 05 I'm gonna choose wrong. I'm gonna play both. Play both. You're listening to this show, play both. I will choose for our-
2:01:44 Bill Simmons? For Ringer 107. We'll play both of these, but for Ringer 107, we are doing?
2:01:49 Speaker 05 Um, Walker over 25.
2:01:52 Bill Simmons? Okay. Those are our four. Pats plus four and a half, Pats plus 10 and a half, parlayed with the over 39 and a half. Hollins 25 plus yards, Walker 25 plus yards. Apologies to Trevor Lawrence getting a sack, not Trevor Lawrence, Demarcus Lawrence, plus 120. Remandre 10 plus rushing yards first quarter, over 36 and a half. We like that one. JSN, one reception each quarter, plus 100. Love that one. Um, I love the tie in the first half with the Patriots winning the second half. 27 to 1, that's on Fidel.
2:02:26 Speaker 05 Go ahead and bet it.
2:02:26 Bill Simmons? AJ Barner rushing TD 18 to 1. We both like both QBs to throw an interception and especially both QBs to throw an interception together in the same game is plus 200.
2:02:38 Speaker 05 Play it.
2:02:38 Bill Simmons? Cup over 40 plus yards, plus 138.
2:02:41 Speaker 05 Do love that one.
2:02:42 Bill Simmons? And then, uh, I like Remandre for most rushing yards, plus 270, because that would mean the Patriots have shut down the Seattle defense. And just for the record, I think the Patriots are going to win the game.
2:02:57 Bill Simmons? And I think the final score is going to be
2:03:03 Bill Simmons? 24 to 20, no Patriots.
2:03:06 Speaker 05 Okay.
2:03:07 Bill Simmons? By the way, I also like that there's a bet with the Seahawks kicker, seven plus points.
2:03:12 Speaker 05 Yes.
2:03:13 Bill Simmons? I think that's around even.
2:03:14 Speaker 05 Okay.
2:03:15 Bill Simmons? But I thought that was a good one, too. Give us your Super Bowl pick while we're here. Go ahead, pick Seattle. Go ahead, be another media stooge.
2:03:22 Speaker 05 No, I'm a coward and this is, you're gonna, it's gonna be the same pick for the pregame show. No, I do have a whole bunch of props for that. And we're getting together. It's gonna be great. Sunday morning, uh, maybe all weekend long, it might be up.
2:03:34 Bill Simmons? Sunday morning, Ringer pregame show.
2:03:36 Speaker 05 Pregame show. Uh, I don't mind previewing this. Uh, I am playing the Patriots plus 10 and a half, parlayed with-
2:03:45 Speaker 05 Under fifty one and a half that is available at minus one twenty two. If you want to get it closer to minus one ten, exactly minus one ten, under fifty and a half. But I want the possibility of a fifty one point game. You know, in terms of a total coming in, I feel like fifty one is a is a very fair number. So under fifty one and a half, Pat's plus ten and a half. The Patriots haven't lost. They've only lost three games and all three were by one score. This is not the game that I think they're going to lose by. Margin, so that is my favorite play.
2:04:18 Bill Simmons? And I'm probably, I'm going to wait until Sunday. I'll tweet out something, but there's something with the Patriots plus eight and a half.
2:04:27 Bill Simmons? Something lower with May's total. And then something with the over or the under that I think could be around plus one hundred. But I'm going to wait to see where the line goes. I think the line's going to drop.
2:04:40 Speaker 05 Why?
2:04:40 Bill Simmons? I think it's going to end up at four.
2:04:42 Speaker 05 Oh, you think some Patriot money's coming?
2:04:44 Bill Simmons? I do.
2:04:45 Speaker 05 Okay.
2:04:46 Bill Simmons? I think people are waiting to see what the Drake May's shoulder situation was.
2:04:50 Speaker 05 Well, let me ask you this. I'm going to give gentle pushback. The when the line was set, it was, you know, Sunday night after the conference championship games were done. It was at five and a half. It moved down to four and a half.
2:05:02 Bill Simmons? Because it was too high.
2:05:04 Speaker 05 But what I'm saying is, at the time that the line was set and moved in that direction, the Drake May shoulder stuff was not part of it. And then that number hasn't moved at all over the course of this entire saga with the great Drake.
2:05:16 Bill Simmons? It usually moves around Friday.
2:05:18 Speaker 05 Okay.
2:05:19 Bill Simmons? And speaking of Friday, you and I, you're coming up to Boston. I'm going to Boston. We're going to Heat Celtics with Jacko. And then, and my daughter, you get to. Get to have drinks with my daughter.
2:05:32 Speaker 05 She's the best.
2:05:33 Bill Simmons? There'll be non alcoholic drinks for her because she's not twenty one yet.
2:05:37 Speaker 05 She's just sipping Diet Coke.
2:05:38 Bill Simmons? Yeah, as far as we know, she's having a Coke. And then Saturday, we're going up to our alma mater, the College of the Holy Cross.
2:05:46 Speaker 05 Let's go.
2:05:46 Bill Simmons? Where we ran about five hundred thousand pick and rolls.
2:05:50 Speaker 05 We did.
2:05:51 Bill Simmons? And all kinds of two on two, three on three and five on five games. We're going back because they are dedicating the court of the main basketball stadium to the one and only Bob Cousy, who we get to meet. And I can't wait. It's going to be awesome. All right, I'll see you in Boston, House. Good to see you. Thanks to Gahan, Eduardo and Jack Wilson, everybody else on the Ringer side. This was a really fun week. I'm going to be back on Sunday.
2:06:15 Bill Simmons? Live on Netflix, right after Super Bowl LX. And in the meantime, over the weekend, you can watch Ace Ventura, because that's going to be the next rewatchable. Spy House.
2:06:26 Speaker 05 See you, buddy.
2:06:27 Bill Simmons? Thanks, buddy.
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