Pod Insights The Bill Simmons Podcast NBA Power Rankings and “Do You Believe?” With Kirk Goldsberry, Plus an Eagles/Steelers Fan Base Report With Chris Ryan and Craig Horlbeck About this episode The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Kirk Goldsberry to discuss all the NBA teams through updated power rankings (3:16). Then, Chris Ryan and Craig Horlbeck join to talk about their favorite NFL teams and the playoff picture (01:38:38).
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Kirk Goldsberry, Chris Ryan, and Craig Horlbeck
Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo
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Transcript 31,824 words · 4 speakers
Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
0:00 Bill Simmons? This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Excitement is in the air. That's right. It's the start of NBA season. I can't wait to get together with friends, share some Michelob Ultras and watch Tip Off. Plus, as the official beer sponsor of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21+. Begins on October 1st, 2026. Ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com/courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details.
0:47 Bill Simmons? The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network, where I put up a new rewatchables on Monday night. We did a mailbag. We started in 2025 with the mailbag. We started 2026 with the mailbag. Got some great questions from a lot of listeners. Came up with a couple of new categories, argued about movies. Talked about Heat a few times. Heat kept coming up. Turns out people like asking us about Heat. I don't know why. Apparently it's a good movie. I've only seen it once or 50 times. Anyway, check that out. We will be coming back with a brand new movie next week. We were doing What Lies Beneath, which you can find on Netflix,
1:28 Bill Simmons? where the rewatchables is going to be officially moving at the end of the month from a video standpoint, but also still available on Spotify and all platforms and available on video on Spotify as well. Don't forget that part. But What Lies Beneath next week. Watch that on Netflix. Listen to our podcast on Monday. I also, somehow this has never happened. I've done rewatchables live.
1:52 Bill Simmons? But I've never done a live podcast in Los Angeles. So I've done live rewatchables, but not a live Bill Simmons podcast. That all changes on, when is the day? February 11th. Tickets will go on sale on Friday, January 9th, the ringer.com/events. I have no idea who's going to be with me. I know it'll be fun, so you can go check that one out. Coming up on this podcast, Kirk Goldsberry and I are going to do an NBA power poll. Go 30 to one. Figure out where Michael Porter Jr. Should go. Does anyone want Trey Young? What's going on with OKC? Do we believe in Phoenix and the Celtics? Whole bunch of questions. And then after that, Chris Ryan and Craig Horbeck, they stuck around after we taped the rewatchables yesterday and we talked a bunch of NFL stuff.
2:37 Bill Simmons? Craig's team, the Steelers, CR's team, the Eagles, my team, the Patriots. What do we believe? Why don't we have playoff fantasy? Whole bunch of things going on. So very fun podcast. Hope you enjoy it. We're going to take a break and then Pearl Jam. The Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by FanDuel. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live. They have your way. Go check out your way. You can build the bet that fits your play your way. Plus, don't miss out on the NFL playoffs. One of my favorite times of the year, all month long. Download the FanDuel app or head to fanduel.com/BS to get started. Get ready for the playoffs. Let's go. Must be 21 plus, present in select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky and Wyoming.
3:21 Bill Simmons? Again, problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-79777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut.
3:58 Bill Simmons? All right, Kirk Goldsberry is here. He is going to do a little power poll with me. We're gonna go from 30 to 1. We feel like we can hit a bunch of fun storylines. What's your favorite storyline of the season so far? We're like 36 games in, so what are we at, the 41% mark, 42% mark? What's your favorite story?
4:16 Speaker 01 Well, I'm biased. I have to say my San Antonio Spurs, surprisingly ahead of schedule, Bill. I love the guards, though. I thought this was gonna be a Wemby team. I was talking to somebody today. Even without Wemby, the Spurs have one of the best young cores in the league, and that's been my favorite story. I love to watch them more than anything. I just love that team.
4:35 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I agree with you on that. It's funny, we were always surprised when somebody is ahead of schedule, but ahead of schedule happens over and over again in the history of the NBA.
4:44 Speaker 01 Yeah, you've been good about that.
4:45 Bill Simmons? Just happened with OKC. Yeah, it's always like, you're always better betting on a year and a half, two years ahead versus an older team, like the Clippers this year or something, or the ones that are the dangerous ones.
4:57 Speaker 01 One of my students told me one time, it's like, athletes are more famous in their lives past their primes. And so I think we overrate these older guys as we get to know them. But yeah, it's a young man's game, like I always say.
5:08 Bill Simmons? Except for Steph Curry and Kevin Durant, who are somehow both 37 years old and still cranking it. All right, power poll, we're going 30 to 1, and we're gonna be able to hit a bunch of stuff. So I sent you my list. This is not both of our list. I just sent you. This is my power poll. We're going through it. First group, the dregs. Indiana is now 6 and 30 with no signs of life. And I think they basically have locked down. They're going to be the worst team in the league. I think they're fine with it. They'll start shelving guys, scratching guys. And what that does is that locks down a top four pick, which is important because we have Peterson and Boozer and DeBansa. And then I think Caleb Wilson. Even if you get four and you end up with Caleb Wilson, it's like, fine.
5:52 Bill Simmons? That guy might be a multiple time All-NBA guy, so. I think this is one of the weirdest situations in the history of the league where you have a team that was on the cusp of winning a championship and becoming the ultimate sports movie story. And then in the blink of an eye, it's over. Their best player is gone for a year and now they have a chance to get basically a franchise guy for the next 15 years and be back running in a year. I don't remember anything like that before.
6:18 Speaker 01 No, the best comp I have is a very different situation, but it's the Bulls post Jordan, when Tim Floyd came in and it was just, they went from very, very apex of the league to the bottom. But yeah, they're 6 and 30. I heard Zach Lowe saying yesterday, I didn't think they'd be this bad. I agree with that. They still have so many good players. They have a good coach. 6 and 30 though, Bill, that's surprising. They're taking the opposite approach as your team. They're obviously just going to get a draft pick and come back at full strength next year. I like that as an executive and I think they'll be a force to be reckoned with next year. This is just a gap year.
6:55 Bill Simmons? I don't think they had a choice because the way it worked out where they just had injuries coming out of the gate even before the season started and they were just behind the eight ball. And they also don't have anybody as good as Jalen Brown on the Pacers.
7:07 Speaker 01 100%.
7:08 Bill Simmons? If you have a top six, top seven guy, which is the way Jalen's been playing, it's a lot easier to win games. All right, so they're 30. Sacramento have a 29. They're 8 and 28. They're last in net rating now, 11.5. I don't remember if I've talked about them on a pod. We killed them before the season when House and Zach and I did the over under pod and Zach got as gamey as he's ever gotten, I think, just completely eviscerating a team. I don't understand anything this team is doing. Like the Westbrook thing to me is the goofiest subplot of the season where you have, you're paying Malik Monk 18 million a year, you're burying him, he's playing either zero minutes a game, six minutes a game. You went and got Schroder over the summer to be your point guard.
7:52 Bill Simmons? You gave up on him basically when the season started and then you get Russ as an expiring. It's not like he's helping them win games. They're terrible. All they should be doing is trying to build up the trade value of Schroder, Monk, some of their other dudes. I don't know what they're doing, Kirk.
8:08 Speaker 01 It is especially sad, Bill, when you look at it in the context. I was at the NBA Cup Final and watching the Knicks and the Spurs and you're seeing Harrison Barnes and Mike Brown out there. You're seeing, you know, De'Aaron Fox out there.
8:21 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
8:22 Speaker 01 We just talked about Halliburton. It's especially sad when you think about where they were just a few years ago and how they're like back to being the Kings.
8:30 Bill Simmons? Yeah. Well, you also have the Sabonis trade now looming, but you gave him this pretty pricey extension in a league where everybody's afraid to trade for a contract that's 35 million and up. So I think it's gonna be a little harder to get rid of him than maybe they think. They do have a good rookie center that I think could take some of his spots, but this is, I just can't believe this is probably the worst shape they've been in.
8:56 Speaker 01 I don't know about that.
8:57 Bill Simmons? Well, I think it is though. They have, who is their best asset? Sabonis?
9:03 Speaker 01 Murray. Murray or, yeah, Murray or Sabonis.
9:06 Bill Simmons? Is Murray even, is like on a final four team, is he even starting?
9:11 Speaker 01 No, he's not starting. That's for sure.
9:13 Bill Simmons? No, he's like a ninth man. How many minutes would he play for the Celtics? Would he play over Sam Hauser? I don't even know.
9:19 Speaker 01 No, I would just push back because they have such an illustrious history at being at the bottom of this league. Like they've been in some bad eras, but man.
9:27 Bill Simmons? I'm talking about the Vivek era, but yeah, they picked, they had Fox and they had Bagley back to back. They were five and two in those drafts and it was, you know, not awesome back then either. But I think this is worse though, because they're actually paying a real roster. They're in one of the aprons. They, they turned Fox into, I don't even really know what they got. And Fox, by the way, everybody's watching him this year and the Spurs going, oh, Fox is good. It's like, yeah, Fox is, Fox was good. He was in the all NBA conversation for a couple of years. All right. So they're 29. Washington's 28. They're nine and 25. Normally I wouldn't want to talk about them. It's just a weird team where they just got a bunch of assets they liked.
10:11 Bill Simmons? Didn't really know what they were doing with them, but they, they don't really care. Threw some people together. They have some bets. And then our buddy Mark Stein.
10:20 Speaker 01 Yeah.
10:20 Bill Simmons? Starts the ball rolling on a Trey Young conversation with them, which they have McCollum's expiring contract and Chris Middleton's expiring contract. I actually tried to figure out what the trade would be and I had some trouble. Even as the Picasso of the trade machine, trying to figure out how the contracts go back and forth. Cause it's like 63 million for McCollum and Middleton. Trey is making 45. So there's other stuff. So I'm sure there's a way to work it out. Do you like the idea of Washington buying low on Trey Young for this year? And probably next year, because I don't see him opting out of his deal.
10:53 Speaker 01 I do. I actually think there's some bright spots in Washington with George and Sarr. If they can keep those guys and get Trey Young. I mean, what else do they have to look forward to? They have a terrible net rating. They have trouble selling tickets. I think you gotta, you gotta look at them as one of the more attractive potential suitors for Trey Young. So I actually like it. I know that our friend Joe House texted us last night and said, please don't pour any gas on that fire. I'm sorry, House. I think it actually kind of makes sense, Bill.
11:26 Bill Simmons? I told House, House went on the Ringer Gambling Show yesterday and picked the Chargers, not just plus three and a half in New England, but he picked them money line. So they were going to go into New England and win. And three hours later, Trey Young to the Wizards emerged. And I was like, this is how God works, House. How dare you go against your buddy of 37 years and take the Chargers? Now you have to watch Trey Young. It's weird because on the, on the one hand, is it a stressed asset? You know, it's like getting it a stressed asset. On the other hand, I'm not sure he's an asset. Because this league is so good. Everybody's so good offensively now. We have teams, multiple teams in the 120s. So it's not like being a good offensive player is as much of an advantage as it used to be.
12:09 Bill Simmons? It's a league where Denny Abdi is averaging 25, seven and seven, you know? So when you throw in his defensive deficiencies and the fact that nobody seems to like playing with them. I don't really know what you're getting, but if I'm Washington and I have this goofy team of, of basically shooting guards that bring the ball up and, you know, ma- maybe?
12:29 Speaker 01 Yeah. Well, I think you're exactly right. The, the market for, the, the NBA is so, so much smarter now than it was when we, we used to love players like Trey Young. You look at these stats, you look at his offensive numbers, but we're so much smarter at evaluating defense. And the market for anybody who is so sort of negative on that end of the court is just, it's just more efficient now. Uh, and I think that's a big part of it, but I think the play is you get him now and then maybe you get him at a lower number and keep him happy, uh, in Washington. I certainly wouldn't want them to get him and then extend him at the max. That, that would be a bad move for Joe House's Washington Wizards.
13:10 Bill Simmons? If they did that, that's almost like you have to divorce your team. I don't even know if Avic Ranadive would do that. By the way, the Kings said they're out. They're not interested. When the Kings aren't interested, that's usually a bad sign. I, uh, I don't mind it buying low for them and seeing what's there. We've seen him succeed in the playoffs. I was thinking about, there are guys in history, and this isn't just in basketball, but it's for football too, that have dined off some result that if you go back and you study the result, maybe the result was a little more dubious and you're dining on that, but maybe it shouldn't happen. And Trey, you'd be like, well, he made the Eastern Conference Finals. He led the Hawks.
13:51 Bill Simmons? It's like, well, that is true. Let's go back and look. Let's see what the league was that year. The conference was weak. And in the second round, they had this, you know, uh, once in a decade event of Ben Simmons, his career ending during a playoff series. Like, he literally lost his confidence in real time and the team cratered. And the Hawks, if you go back and you look at all those games, they had, there were crazy comebacks and, you know, the Sixers just fall apart. And if that doesn't happen and Philly just wins that series, we're not having, there's, there's no case for Trey Young.
14:25 Speaker 01 Yeah, that's a fair point. I also think it's worth bringing up that the man who drafted Trey Young in Atlanta and postured them to get in the position to get Trey Young in the first place, Travis Schlenk, is now one of the leaders of the front office in Washington.
14:39 Bill Simmons? Oh, a Travis redemption.
14:41 Speaker 01 Travis Schlenk. And we've seen that in every sport. Like, these guys, once you, once you build a relationship like that, you'll see them bring them home. So I think, I think the shoe fits Bill Simmons.
14:52 Bill Simmons? Okay. Well, I like for Atlanta. I still have not given up on Atlanta. They'll be coming up later in the power pole, but I like flipping Trey into CJ. If you don't really have to give up anything else other than contracts going back and forth. I don't mind that because I actually think they kind of need somebody like CJ and the team. The problem with Trey, and CJ's not a good defender either, but maybe it's just the kind of, kind of mix that they need. New Orleans, 27. They were looking frisky and now they've lost seven straight and yet they don't have their pick. We've talked about that a million times. Brooklyn, 26. They're 11 and 22. I went under on them as one of my locks in the over under pod. I think their over under was like 19.
15:34 Speaker 01 Yeah.
15:35 Bill Simmons? And I didn't think they wanted to be good, and I still don't think they want to be good, but Michael Porter Jr. Has kind of flipped this and ruined it and has had this unbelievable breakout season where this is where I talked about last week with Mahoney about do they need like the breakthrough player award to add to most improved. You can't really necessarily give Michael Porter most improved because he's just getting way more shots.
15:59 Speaker 01 Yeah.
15:59 Bill Simmons? And I've always had that theory about good stats, bad teams. How many guys, talked about this many times in the pod, how many guys in the league could score 20 points if they just won a bad team? How many guys could score 25? Maybe that's a little of that. On the other hand, I've watched him like go toe to toe with excellent players and carry his team against better teams. He did it to the Celtics. He killed the Celtics in Boston. And I do wonder, could he save a couple of seasons here or elevate a couple of teams? But more importantly, Kirk. If you're in Brooklyn, you have to trade him like this week. You're passing the point of like, you're not going to be able to get in the top four if you don't get rid of him now. If that's your goal, it might not be your goal. But if they want to be a bottom four team, they have to trade him this week.
16:44 Bill Simmons? He's making the team too good.
16:46 Speaker 01 Yeah, they need more of those Cam Thomas shots and fewer of these MPJ shots. Yeah, MPJ is like one of the more talented pure shooters in the NBA. He works out a lot with Stephen Curry and his trainer, Brandon Pay. And I remember Brandon told me one time, like, you wouldn't believe the number of times that MBJ beat Stephen Curry in shooting drills and shooting games. He is super talented and, you know, he had the back issue coming out of college, which, which dropped him in the stock. But this guy has been one of the most talented players in basketball in a long time. I like him. I agree with you. My only note on Brooklyn, like the way they're playing, I would swap them out of this dregs category you gave me and put them above Utah. I like.
17:29 Bill Simmons? So you'd put them in the next category called the young and the frisky? I just assumed they're gonna trade Porter. I, I wanted to keep them in the dregs because I thought they were just gonna trade Porter. But if you're, you're right, if they don't, they're in the young and the frisky.
17:41 Speaker 01 Yeah, yeah, I think they're, I like them and they're, they're showing flashes of being a very good defense through stretches of the season. That young group coming together, they have the, the chance, Bill, and I'm not sure this is the route they're gonna take, but they have the chance to get better as the season goes on.
17:56 Bill Simmons? I think there's more good coaches right now than we've ever had.
18:01 Bill Simmons? And, you know, the Nets coach is a good example, the, the Suns coach.
18:05 Speaker 01 Right.
18:05 Bill Simmons? Who I think him and Missoula are, are in the running for coach of the year. But it just seems like there's more smart people running teams versus the old days where it was like some ex-player who'd already coached three other teams. We had a lot of those guys. We don't have as many of those guys. Apologies to Doug Christie.
18:23 Speaker 01 No, I agree with you. And one crossover NFL take, I think one of the reasons, like the Jacksonville coach or the Bears coach, we saw in that sport this year, just how important coaching can be for a team.
18:33 Bill Simmons? Yeah, and specialists too, people who are really good at one side of their offense or their defense.
18:39 Speaker 01 Yeah, I agree. I had that in my notes, actually. Will Hardy is another great coach in a struggling environment. But yeah, there's so many good young coaches right now.
18:46 Bill Simmons? Yeah. Well, he could save Golden State's season. I want to hold that thought when we get to Golden State. The trade, that's the easiest trade. I actually asked Bobby Marks, I texted him today about, I was trying to understand these poison pill guys, and I guess one hasn't been traded since 1785. But it's the hardest it's ever been to make trades, and yet the easy trade, and the trade that makes sense for both sides, is Porter going to Detroit. And that's the one that's sitting there. Harris isn't expiring. They have Ron Holland, which is a tough asset to give up, but you gotta give up something to get something. They have picks. And I watched
19:27 Bill Simmons? Detroit, and so much relies on Cade in the last five minutes of every game, that I think, as good as they've been, and they definitely have an identity, you have to have a second guy who can create a shot. And if you don't do that, then you're basically banking on, maybe Ivy can become that guy. But that trade just makes a lot of sense. Then Brooklyn just buys out Harris. He goes and signs with the contender. You've held off the fort of not being one of the five worst teams, and you could just play all your young guys and try to lose. That's what I would do.
20:01 Speaker 01 Yeah, Detroit has a defense that is their identity. They're physical, but they lack that. The Malik Beasley shooting numbers that were so great last year haven't been replaced. They have Duncan Robinson. They would slide MPJ in that role.
20:16 Bill Simmons? Basically, the Harris and, yeah, whatever that four row is, they'd lose on defense with him because he's, you know, not a good defensive player. He's somebody that people target when he's out there on a good team.
20:25 Speaker 01 But, yeah, they're overloaded on defense and underloaded on shooting. So from that perspective, it makes sense. I wonder if they're a little reticent because of Harris' off-court impacts, just as a leader, as the grown-up in the room. And I don't know if they want to mess with it. This is a team that's getting better. That'd be the pushback. They feel like they have the best record in the East right now. I know Zach thinks they might make a trade. Obviously, they have to look at it. I wouldn't be surprised to see them just, this is our team. We're going to try to win the Eastern Conference with this group.
20:57 Bill Simmons? I think that's, I actually think that's probably the right move. Because whatever happens, they're not winning the title this year. And Zach and I talked about, when we talked about them a month ago as a trade team. You go under the premise of what would Sam Presti do? He definitely wouldn't do anything this year. He'd wait and probably wait until the summer to really make a move on somebody.
21:18 Bill Simmons? But Porter's playing so well and the East is so wide open. I guess your question is, could we make the finals if we did this trade?
21:26 Speaker 01 Right.
21:27 Bill Simmons? And is that a good enough goal for you? And when you think that team was so bad a couple of years ago and you know, how starved Detroit is for a good team again. You'd be like, we might actually make the finals if we do this. I think you're having meetings about it. Next group, the Young and the Frisky, Utah 25, 12 and 23. It's interesting, if they had had Kessler, if he hadn't gotten hurt so early in the season, I do wonder what this team looks like. Cause some of their other assets have come through. The, Keanu, Keanu George is my number one. I have no idea what to make of this guy as an asset. Cause he's averaging 24 a game. It's hard for me to imagine him being one of the two best guys on a really good team.
22:10 Speaker 01 Right.
22:11 Bill Simmons? But then, and you watch them at the end of games. And he just seems like he can get on anywhere on the floor he wants to get to. Which I think is the number one thing you'd want as a guard in the last five minutes of a game. They have marketing.
22:23 Speaker 01 Yeah.
22:24 Bill Simmons? There's good stuff happening here.
22:26 Speaker 01 Yeah, I hope for my friend Will Hardy that this is the last year he has to go through this. Cause there is good stuff happening. They have talent. It's a proud franchise and I hope Danny Ainge decides to start, you know, really pushing next year. This year, you know, I don't know why they would try to win much more than they are. Where they are right now in the Western Conference. But man, this is a fan base that we know is sick of losing like this. They're accustomed to being at the top of the Western Conference and they're just.
22:55 Bill Simmons? Would you trade marketing or no?
22:58 Speaker 01 I would field offers and I think that's what Danny's been doing. And I would be picky, but I would if the right offer presented itself. I think you look at the Western Conference right now, there's a lot of great players younger than Markkinen that are going to be around for a while.
23:13 Bill Simmons? I was just looking that up. What is his age exactly? Oh, he's 28, so he turns 29 in May. And that's where you have to think like, every decision you're making is where are we in 2030? Basically, so he's 32 at that point.
23:27 Speaker 01 Shay.
23:28 Bill Simmons? Right. Well, they're fun. They're, they, listen, and the same thing for this next team, 24 Charlotte, who's 13 and 23. It's like just two good league pass teams. These were teams that you did not want to watch ever for any circumstances. Charlotte last night, put them on, wanted to see if they would go a little toe to toe with a seemingly struggling OKC team, just because they've been 500 for two weeks. And turned on the game and Charlotte was up 20. It's like, what's going, and they killed Charlotte, like literally killed them. It was probably the best Hornets game in five years.
24:01 Speaker 01 Yeah, it was the most stunning result of the year. I would go there so far as to be like, I cannot believe what I'm watching. I wanted to watch the Suns Rockets game, but I couldn't take my eyes off of what was happening in Oklahoma City and Con Canipple and Brandon Miller and LaMelo Ball just hitting three after three and this defense frustrating the Thunder.
24:21 Bill Simmons? Yeah, yeah, they had, you know, when they have Miller and he's been kind of in and out, he's been banged up, but he seems healthy now. And him and Canipple together are just a really fun foundation. Like, I really feel like that's, I've talked about Charlotte too much, but I really feel like there's something there. What's interesting is LaMelo, he played 25 minutes, 16 points, two rebounds. It wasn't like this was like the LaMelo show last night. It was really about their wings and OKC having a lot of issue with, with their flexibility. I can't wait to talk about OKC. Chicago, 17 and 19, watched them last night, played the Celtics, Celtics killed them. Bazellus, I really like, and I think he's competitive and I think there's something potentially special with him. I'm monitoring him.
25:07 Speaker 01 I
25:07 Bill Simmons? He's yeah.
25:08 Speaker 01 What else do you watch?
25:09 Bill Simmons? Something there.
25:10 Speaker 01 What else do you watch when you watch this team? It's dark times in Chicago. I watched the, the beginning of that game last night, too. Uh, when the Boston Celtics just, just destroyed them. Um, on both ends of the court. It's just, it's so embarrassing and the interior with Chicago. Uh, your guy Kada just bullying them around like they have no answers. I don't know what they're trying to do. Um, it's, it's, it's bleak.
25:35 Bill Simmons? I think they were trying to have a really fun offensive team built around their guards. But the problem is they didn't trade Kobe White in time.
25:44 Speaker 01 Yeah.
25:44 Bill Simmons? And now they, and now they're kind of stuck where they are. The can't quit yet list.
25:52 Bill Simmons? Dallas, I probably have too high at number 22. They're 13 and 23.
25:57 Speaker 01 No.
25:58 Bill Simmons? Net rating minus 3.7. I can't give up on them yet and I don't know why. And they're probably going to trade Davis in the next three weeks. I would guess if they can get any decent offer for him. But I don't feel like they're that far away when I watch them. I feel like they're in these games against these teams. And part of the problem is they're relying on somebody who just turned 19 to be this decisive playmaker at the end of the games. They can't figure out the point guard spot. Nemhard's like clearly a ninth, 10th man, but defensively he really hurts someone who's out there. They can't figure out who to put in that spot. I don't know when Kyrie comes back. The play in is still available for them potentially. And you could talk yourself into a world with Kyrie coming back and then being a 10
26:43 Bill Simmons? seed and who knows? I just don't know if that makes sense.
26:46 Speaker 01 It doesn't. I mean, they own their own pick bill. They're sitting here at 13 and 23. I love Cooper Flag. I'm dropping another big piece on him.
26:56 Bill Simmons? I can't wait.
26:57 Speaker 01 On the Ringer. Um, I've been studying Dallas.
27:01 Speaker 01 And like from a front office perspective, they own their own pick this year. They don't really for the next few. This is a deep draft. They're sitting here at 13 and 23.
27:10 Bill Simmons? They've already lost Lively.
27:12 Speaker 01 You're looking down I 35 at San Antonio. You're looking at Houston. You're looking at OKC. Oh my God. You have a, and this is what I wrote in that piece. It's a draft right now. I said, like, there's two kinds of bad teams in the league. There's a kind of team that doesn't have a direction like Chicago. And then there's a team like Dallas that's blessed with, you know, Cooper flag and Derek Lively. And that at least gives you a path forward. And I say the clear move here is to go to the bottom for Dallas, however they get there, and go get another guy next to Cooper and Lively and start there and see what you can get for PJ, see what you can get for Gafford, maybe see what you can get for AD. Let Kyrie take his time coming back. I think that's such an obvious path forward, but I don't think this
27:57 Speaker 01 current Dallas leadership is thinking that way.
28:01 Bill Simmons? Interesting because they're, they're a good trade machine team. They have multiple guys that other teams would want like PJ Washington, reasonable contract, right? He's around 15, 16. Anybody could go grab him and put him in a rotation and you would need him. Gafford's another one.
28:18 Speaker 01 Plug and play.
28:19 Bill Simmons? I worry about the lively piece and
28:21 Speaker 01 Yeah.
28:22 Bill Simmons? just him long-term from a health standpoint because I think that was one of the things people were worried about with him coming out of high school and college. And now he's hurt again. And then I'd also worry if I were them about Cooper flag coming to the Celtics in four years. I think that's a real threat. Like tank, but don't tank too hard. His whole family's at Maine and their house is covered with Celtic stuff and, and his mom is probably the biggest female Celtics fan in New England. So I'd worry about them just a whiff.
28:53 Speaker 01 Yeah, it's interesting, but you know, just from a team building perspective, they they have to look at it, man. Like, it's just the writings on the wall. But what's really interesting, and you'll love this, too. They currently have co interim GMs. They have sort of Mark Cuban in a quasi-involved role again. The current owner is just who who would make the decisions, Bill, for a team like this to be aggressive at the deadline, one way or another?
29:19 Bill Simmons? An emotionally scarred team, by the way, that probably doesn't ever want to make another decision.
29:22 Speaker 01 Yeah, that's not irrelevant. Like, they are gonna be pretty gun shy about big trades, right? Because they don't want to repeat the disaster that they just lived through in 2025 again in 2026.
29:39 Bill Simmons? I I I just, if I was a Mavericks fan, I'd probably have to see a therapist like twice a week to get through the last year. Even though it all ends up with Cooper Flag.
29:50 Speaker 01 Right.
29:50 Bill Simmons? That is incredible to watch and is doing things at an age that is about as unusual as it gets. I just, the question for me with Davis, what is he worth actually versus, oh, it's Anthony Davis, he's worth this. It's like, is he? What is the, from a wear and tear standpoint, from the fact that the ringers, Rich Paul, will probably want an extension for him?
30:17 Speaker 01 That's a big point.
30:18 Bill Simmons? I just don't know what teams are actually giving up for him, on top of the fact that it's impossible to make a trade for a $50 million guy anymore. So, you know, I just, what is that, what's that Carfax report looking for him? When you get it in, it's like, oh, 132,000 miles. I thought this was gonna be like 88. I didn't realize they changed the engine.
30:42 Speaker 01 He's taught me more about abductor strains than I've cared to know in my life, you know? I didn't know what that was. And then Anthony Davis. But yeah, he, if you tell me he's healthy, he helps every team. Like, if the Celtics got him, he fills a lot of gaps. But with the CBA and the trade rules, I'm just, yeah, we'll talk about their front court, I'm sure, in a minute. But it's hard to trade him in the regular season, period. It's harder to trade him when your front office has co interim GMs and your owners are still trying to figure out what's going on here. I just don't think they get it done. I could be wrong. But I just don't think they have the leadership in place to pull that off right now.
31:23 Bill Simmons? We'll take a break and then we'll hit the next 21 teams. The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by FanDuel football fans. We've waited all year and right now it's time to switch the mode to playoff mode on FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, all FanDuel customers can get in on the action with a wild card reward for NFL Wild Card Round, or as I call it, Round One. Just pick your card. You can win up to 100% profit boost.
31:51 Bill Simmons? I'm not ready to do my picks yet.
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32:39 Bill Simmons? You gonna crush the gym? You gonna inch into quitters' day territory? What's your plan? Because that's a real thing. The second Friday of January, it turns out, most of us, we throw in the towel by then, but not this year. Not if you got an Apple Watch. Apple Watch keeps you locked in. You've got the daily movement and activity rings, achievement streaks, goal tracking. It's like having a coach on your wrist. So if you're on the edge of giving up, don't. This is the year we quit quitting. Let's do this. Apple Watch, made to motivate you. Find out more at apple.com/appledwatch. Series 11, iPhone 11 or later required. All right, the can't quit yet group continues with Memphis at 15 and 20. I don't have a lot to say here, other than I was on the record as not loving the Jaren
33:24 Bill Simmons? Jackson extension.
33:25 Speaker 01 Yeah.
33:26 Bill Simmons? I still think when you're talking about paying that much money for somebody, I just need a little more.
33:32 Speaker 01 Yeah.
33:32 Bill Simmons? You know, ironically, I feel this way about Jimmy Butler and Golden State. Jimmy Butler, a player I like, but for $54 million a year, it's just, it's just too much money in a league where you really can only afford to have one or two guys making that much on your team.
33:50 Bill Simmons? I don't know what they do with Ja. Every once in a while, I get a text from somebody being like, heard so and so is interested in job. Like, really? And then nothing happens.
33:59 Speaker 01 He looks great when he looks great. The Jaren Jackson thing, though, that's the most interesting thing. You know, basketball isn't baseball. You can't just plug and play these guys into any team and, and kind of know what you're gonna get. He looked great defensively when Steven Adams was there, sort of collecting rebounds and clogging up the paint and that freed him up. Team USA, when he, we tried to use him at the five, it just wasn't good. He needs like a bigger, stronger, traditional five to really be the defensive impact that we've seen him be. And then there's also giant red flags on the other end of the court, Bill. He's arguably the worst finishing big man in the league right now. He, he does
34:41 Speaker 01 this thing where he tries to drive the ball, almost like Giannis from the top, and it just never works. He gets, he gets halfway there and then it just, it can't finish. So I'm with you. That is looking awkward. Maybe Zach Eadie is the guy next to him and it all clicks in, but.
34:59 Bill Simmons? Right. We can't keep him on the court.
35:01 Speaker 01 To your earlier point.
35:03 Bill Simmons? Right?
35:04 Speaker 01 They draft well. Yeah.
35:05 Bill Simmons? And, and ironically, need a point guard and have one, but have no idea what we're getting out of that guy going forward. And, you know, if he's not going to be as reckless as he used to be, I don't know what's left if he can't, if he's not like a great shooter. And the league is just way better, way more explosive. Everybody has a good guard.
35:24 Speaker 01 And like Trey Young, like Trey Young, not to cut off the Portland segue, but like, like Trey Young, the, the league is just a little too woke these days for a one-way offensive guard who's gonna be just a weak link on the defensive end that smart teams will just attack over and over and over again. You have to be an exceptional offensive player if you're gonna bring that little to the defensive end.
35:47 Bill Simmons? We just have so much more talent that I don't even know, all you have to do is just go through, like, I was looking at the 06 Lakers and how Kobe, I think he finished fourth in MVP. I voted for him that year. And he averaged 35 a game. His best four teammates, which I had kind of forgotten, no Laker fan has forgotten this, but I forgot it. His best four teammates were Lamar Odom, who was good.
36:13 Speaker 01 Yeah, very good.
36:14 Bill Simmons? Smush Parker. Kwame Brown and Luke Walton, that was his team.
36:22 Bill Simmons? Like, three of those guys would not be in rotations for three fourths of the teams we have now. Would not like play minutes at all. And, you know, as, as the league evolved over the next 20 years and you could get away with a Trey Young in like 2017, when we didn't have a ton of scoring. Now we do, we have teams averaging 124 points a game.
36:43 Speaker 01 Yeah, it's a great point. And we also have these, these young book coaches that we were describing earlier that, that know how to exploit every weak link that you put on the court, on your defense. Like, that's the other thing. Tactically, we know how to get Trey Young on an island and attack it. And I think that's the other thing that's happened.
37:04 Bill Simmons? Well, that's the problem with Porter. Trying to win a title and you get Porter, you're in the same position Denver was in where he's just going to be thrown into every screen and every pick and roll and he's going to be the guy they pick on. So his offense has to be awesome to offset that. Portland, number 20, 17 and 20 somehow, even though Scoot Henderson, haven't seen him. Drew Holiday got hurt pretty early.
37:29 Bill Simmons? Avdi is a 25, 7 and 7 guy. And really should get thrown into the, all the terrible things that have happened to the Wizards this century list. I think giving up on that dude when he was that good. I want to mention, because they beat the Celtics. It was the only game in the road trip the Celtics lost and I watched it.
37:50 Bill Simmons? I think Klingon's terrific.
37:52 Speaker 01 Right.
37:52 Bill Simmons? I really like him as a big guy. I liked him in the draft. I thought he went, I thought both him and Edie went maybe a couple of spots too late. Because it's so, where the league was going, I just liked these big guys that can rebound and defend the rim. He killed the Celtics. And it was the only mistake Missoula made on the whole road trip was he went small in the last three minutes and Klingon killed them, got a big offensive rebound and put back. But I think they really got something with him. I, I, I like their assets. I don't know what I do if I'm Portland. I might try to like, kind of zag the other way maybe and, and like, like this is a team. Maybe this is a team that takes a flyer on one of these dudes that are available.
38:31 Speaker 01 Yeah, I mean.
38:32 Bill Simmons? LaMelo, Trey Young type guys.
38:33 Speaker 01 I think Trey Young, yeah, that they have to be looking at that. They're 17 and 20. They're in the wrong place in the standings. The, you know, the league punishes that record at the end of the year. If that's where you're gonna be, here's your prize. You get nothing. And look, they've beaten OKC this year. They've beaten the Spurs in San Antonio.
38:52 Bill Simmons? The Celtics.
38:53 Speaker 01 They beat the Celtics. They show glimpses. Tiago, I like Tiago as a head coach. I remember they had a, they had a crisis in the coaching staff, unprecedented crisis.
39:03 Bill Simmons? His house was on Redfin.
39:05 Speaker 01 Oh, really?
39:06 Bill Simmons? This is, the Billups is over. Yeah, there was an article about how he's selling his house. It's, it's, this, this story is grim. Like that coach is not coming back.
39:14 Speaker 01 Move in there? Do you think?
39:16 Bill Simmons? I should talk to him about it. Yeah, maybe grab the Billups house. Probably a good poker room in there. I like where Portland's at. I'd be interested to see if they took a swing on somebody. Could also be an Anthony Davis team, by the way. They, they're in play for a bunch of stuff. From a contract standpoint, a little tough, but Klingon and Avdia, they have some good guys.
39:36 Speaker 01 Yeah, they have good guys.
39:37 Bill Simmons? Kamara, we didn't mention. They have some, some guys I like. Number 19 Milwaukee, they're 16 and 20. They're 14 and 8 when Giannis plays. They have seven guys averaging 10 points a game. They have Rollins and Kevin Porter at 36 points a game combined, which is one of those when you're going through the stats, you're like, wait, what?
39:54 Speaker 01 Yeah.
39:55 Bill Simmons? I'm still in on this Bucks team. I'm the last one.
39:57 Speaker 01 I'm out.
39:58 Bill Simmons? And it has nothing to do with that. I like Doc. I just think Giannis is that good. And I still, and I don't think the East is good. And I, I'm still just, I'm not officially closing the door on them in any capacity yet. They're not gonna trade Giannis, so it's not happening.
40:12 Speaker 01 I am so frustrated with this team. I loved this team about five years ago and then slowly watched it deteriorate, transaction after transaction, coaching change after coaching change. And here we are. Dude, one of the crazy stats of the year, though, is this is the best shooting team in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks. And I would-
40:30 Bill Simmons? That's why I'm, that's why I'm still in. Giannis and shooting is something.
40:33 Speaker 01 That is something, Bill, and that's, that's a good position to take. I just don't think like this Ryan Rollins thing and it's just, it's so frustrating. That used to be Drew Holiday or even like Eric Bloodso, for crying out loud. They, they used to have like better players next to Giannis, Chris Middleton, of course, Brook Lopez. Like, it's just sad to see the, the supporting cast. I'm as big of a Giannis guy as you'll find in the media. I love him. And it's just sad to see what they've surrounded him with.
41:03 Bill Simmons? Well, they surrounded him with shooting.
41:05 Speaker 01 And Kuzma.
41:08 Bill Simmons? The Kuzma trade is the one that killed them.
41:11 Bill Simmons? Because he's untradeable. I know they had to save some luxury tax last year. But you'd have Middleton as an expiring this year. You'd actually have the flexibility to go get somebody and they can't because Kuzma doesn't make enough money. Number 18, the Clippers, a team that I've seen in person a couple of times recently, 13 and 22 now. I was mailing my, my betting thread with Sal and House and Hench. I was mailing them Clippers division odds when they were 200 to one on FanDuel. And now they're 45 to one and I still like it. I don't like anyone in that division, except for one team we're going to talk about later. But Harden's having quietly a really good offensive season again. He's like 25,
41:52 Bill Simmons? eight and seven or something. And then Kawhi, until Jaylen Brown came in on Saturday night and punched him right in the mug. But Kawhi's, Kawhi's looked athletically as good as I've seen him the entire time in the Clippers. They had Derek Jones come back who then got hurt. But they, they feel like they've figured out how to use John Collins finally.
42:12 Speaker 01 Yeah.
42:13 Bill Simmons? The first 15 games, it was like, why is this guy in the team? What is he? And now they've figured that part out. They had a nice win against the Warriors last night, but not counting them out either because they have no incentive to not be good. Like, they have to be good.
42:28 Speaker 01 Yeah, it's been a bad few weeks for OKC. We'll talk about that later. But what he's talking about, one of the reasons why. The Clippers are winning and that's bad for their, their, their next year's draft status. The OKC Thunder, that is. Kawhi Leonard, I had one friend at the NBA tell me for a team say, this is the best he's played since Toronto, this stretch of games.
42:50 Bill Simmons? I agree with that.
42:52 Speaker 01 He looks awesome. And I know your guys went in there and won that game and that was very impressive. We'll talk about that, I'm sure in a minute, but Kawhi Leonard, if he's going to play like this too, the Clippers are going to be good. And if Harden's going to play like this, the Clippers are going to be good.
43:09 Speaker 01 Those are big ifs, especially with Kawhi's availability, but yeah, just look at his numbers. He's scoring 30, 35, 40 on a routine basis. And maybe more important, he's playing his ass off on defense, Bill.
43:21 Bill Simmons? Playing his ass off and very like angry competitive.
43:26 Speaker 01 Which is the scariest Kawhi dude. Like when we had him in San Antonio, it was like when he would get like that in that Memphis series. I know we even take that for data series. He would go to this place where it was just like an eighth grader playing against fourth graders and just mean, be meaner than everybody and take the ball. That's what we're seeing. I don't know if it's sustainable, but the Clippers look better than the 13 and 22 record next to their name.
43:51 Bill Simmons? I agree. So if you look at the, the win total on Fanduel right now, their over under is 38 and a half. So they're 13 and 22. So that means they'd have to be a little bit over 500. The thing that interests me about them, they're under picks, so they, they want to be good.
44:09 Speaker 01 Right.
44:10 Bill Simmons? They actually have some trade stuff.
44:12 Speaker 01 They have a lot of trade stuff.
44:13 Bill Simmons? Like, I think they're in play for a Davis trade possibly, right? They could add up Collins is 26.5 and expires after the year. Zubats is at 18.1. Bogdanovich is expiring at 16. Lopez is expiring at 8.7 and Batum is expiring at 5.6. They could put together any type of trade. So they could go get a $40 million guy, 45, 50, whatever it is, and make a play on a distressed asset if they want. And I'm, I'm just, I'm interested to see how that goes. I thought for sure this would, they were going to make a play on. On Trey Young or one of these guys. I guess Trey would have made sense because you already have Harden, but just one of these distressed asset max guys or close to max.
44:58 Speaker 01 But what if they, what if they decided they were going to try to trade James Harden? What if they, what if they wanted to really go after it? I think that's something I heard around the league this week too, is like Harden might, might be in some of these conversations. I'm not reporting anything, but look, they have to look at it.
45:16 Bill Simmons? It wouldn't surprise me after Saturday because the Celtics knocked him down once and we never heard from him again in that game. I think he's at the point of his career where you just have to hit him a couple of times.
45:28 Bill Simmons? Trade machine crew. I probably should have the Clippers in there.
45:30 Speaker 01 Yeah.
45:31 Bill Simmons? Uh, number 17, Atlanta. The season's all over the map. The Trey thing kind of burned out. Reese Shays been really bad. I'm not giving up on him, but he's been bad. And them taking him over Castle, I think is getting really, really tough now. I thought Castle should have been first in the draft. That one's getting really hard now. If you're a Hawks fan, you just gotta be like, oh my God.
45:56 Speaker 01 I didn't even go further than that, Bill Simmons. I think if you look at the first three or four picks from that draft, you're starting to see Reed Shepard pop a little bit. That was another guy they were looking at.
46:06 Bill Simmons? They couldn't take him though.
46:07 Speaker 01 Sure they could have.
46:08 Bill Simmons? You can't take him when you have Trey.
46:10 Speaker 01 Right, well, they might not have Trey soon and they could have Reed Shepard. So, you know, take the best player. Uh, Sar. Yeah, so I think that draft class is starting to pop a little bit more than I expected, but not at that number one slot. And you're right about Reese Shays.
46:27 Bill Simmons? And then Porzingis, which was their big summer trade and he's still battling all his stuff. The weird thing about this team, other than them being 17 and 21, and I keep waiting for them to turn it around or it's just not happening. And yet I can't count them out. They're getting this incredible Alexander Walker season. He's averaging 20.5 points a game and is a crunch time guy for them sometimes. And is guarding the other teams, like one of their best players. And it's just like, so they A plus signing there, probably a D minus, F plus for the Reese Shays pick. The Porzingis is an incomplete, but um, I just would have thought if that Alexander Walker move hit like that, how are you 17 and 21?
47:11 Speaker 01 They've had obvious, there's clearly a chemistry issue there, right? I mean, the on off numbers with Trey say it all that their defense is absolutely terrible. As soon as Trey Young.
47:22 Bill Simmons? It shouldn't be terrible. They had, well, they have good defensive guys on the roster, but it's terrible.
47:27 Speaker 01 Yeah, there's clearly a chemistry thing and I think that's behind the scenes. The reason why we saw the news from Mark Stein and then the previous report from Shams about them working with the agents, trying to, trying to find a new place. It's just clearly, I think a chemistry thing. And the other sneaky part of it is Porzingis, talk about big ifs like Anthony Davis. When that guy's out there, the Hawks are good. It's actually more of a Porzingis thing than a Trey thing, I think for them going forward. It's like, can they get any kind of regularity from Porzingis? Cause they could flip this around. If, if they get off of Trey Young and Porzingis is healthy. The Eastern Conference is there to be had. Zach did an entire podcast about it yesterday.
48:10 Speaker 01 The Hawks, I am not giving up on them by any means.
48:14 Bill Simmons? I intentionally didn't listen to Zach's podcast yesterday because I knew I was doing this today and I didn't want to be tainted with his, with his opinions, with his Northeastern.
48:23 Speaker 01 It was an excellent podcast as always.
48:25 Bill Simmons? I'm gonna listen to it today.
48:29 Bill Simmons? Golden State, 16.
48:32 Bill Simmons? They're 19 and 18, tough loss last night. They're getting an all time Curry season. Curry's having his best year in three years. He's almost at five threes a game.
48:43 Bill Simmons? I just think he's been really, really good. Doesn't have that like, I'm getting super tired. I'm tired of carrying everybody kind of vibe yet, which I think we'll probably have in a month. What's interesting to me about them is they're 20th in offense. And so you think like, oh, they gotta get a center or they gotta do this. It's like, they actually need scoring. You know, they're paying all this money for Jimmy Butler, who's 17 and 19 a game. Draymond can't score. They have all these other bench guys that you don't know whether you're getting. And that's why I thought Porter would be an interesting one for them. If you're them and you're looking at, how do we possibly ever in the million years beat OKC or San Antonio in a series, which Kerr was, went out of his way to say how impossible that was. I disagree a little bit because they have Curry.
49:28 Bill Simmons? I'm just going all in on offense.
49:30 Speaker 01 Yeah.
49:31 Bill Simmons? I want to build a team that can outscore other teams and kind of do what the Celtics are doing. The Celtics are second in offense. It doesn't make a lot of sense, but they're getting 130, 140 points a game. I think they need to add scoring because you saw it last night. Curry fouled out. They had to run the last play for Butler. He ends up with a turnaround with Batum guarding him. It's an air ball. They don't have a second guy who can create a shot. So that's what I would do. What would you do?
49:57 Speaker 01 I mean, they, they have to throw bad money after bad money. I think, and continue to go after somebody like Giannis or Anthony Davis. I think that's what.
50:08 Bill Simmons? Giannis is going to be too expensive, though. They can't do that.
50:10 Speaker 01 So maybe it's AD, but look, I just don't think there's a path for them to get back to that group.
50:18 Speaker 01 Stephen Curry, look at the on off numbers. It's almost Jokic like the difference between the competence when Stephen is on the court on their offense versus just the sheer incompetence. As soon as he sits down, they turn into what would be the worst offense in the league. They brought in Jimmy Butler, Bill, in part to stem that. And it's just, it's just not working. Al Horford hasn't clicked the way they expected that to.
50:45 Bill Simmons? When you say he hasn't clicked.
50:48 Bill Simmons? I mean, there's other stuff we could say there.
50:51 Speaker 01 Well, you can say it.
50:53 Bill Simmons? Well, I, I think it's over.
50:55 Speaker 01 Yeah.
50:57 Bill Simmons? The one thing I've noticed with the Celtics, I was talking about, because I, I was glad I got to see them in person at the Clipper game. The difference of having Porzingis and Horford as two of the bigs that are playing a ton of minutes versus what they have now with Caden Garza, who on paper are much worse players, right? And with no experience, make no sense, but are better for the Celtics offensively because they set these big bulky picks.
51:23 Speaker 01 Yeah.
51:24 Bill Simmons? 25 feet from the basket, the top of the key, and the two guards in Jalen and Simons. They all know how to use these guys and these guys are just, they're really hard to get around and they create space and they roll, they know when to roll to the basket, their hands are up and they're just, it's just a better offense. And Horford, who didn't rebound, I, by the way, I love Al Horford. He was, you know, I wish he hadn't left the team twice. And I don't know why he left the team to go to a team that can't contend under the guise of contending. But um, he didn't rebound. He didn't get to the free throw line. He didn't play all the time. These guys now, they play every game. They're young. They bang bodies. They're physical. They can overpower teams and the Celtics are just in a better spot.
52:07 Bill Simmons? So I look at Horford for what this Warriors team needs. This Warriors team needs rebounding. They need consistency. They need guys who can play every day. They need physicality. He doesn't give any of that stuff to them.
52:21 Speaker 01 No, the front court has been bad and it's just, you know, Draymond is what he is. He's not going to get you rebounds. He's surprisingly great rim protector. He's going to facilitate offense, but they used to have Kevon Looney, you know, they used to have, I mean, going way back, Bogut like next to them. And now it's just that character's not there. And of course the Klay Thompson character is not there. And the non Steph.
52:45 Bill Simmons? This is how it ends.
52:46 Speaker 01 The non Steph minutes are a disaster. And that's really, I mean.
52:52 Bill Simmons? You have to have a second scorer. This is like even the Celtics. Simon's, it doesn't happen every game, but he'll come in and he could take over a quarter.
53:00 Speaker 01 Right.
53:01 Bill Simmons? You know, he could get 13 and a half. It's just like a wild card variable on top of like the, the set stuff that they have every game. The Warriors don't even really have that. I don't even know like who their heat check guy is. Is it Will Richard? Like, like who is it?
53:16 Speaker 01 Yeah, I don't know. Buddy healed occasionally and then maybe.
53:19 Bill Simmons? They don't know who it is. They never know game to game who they're going to get it from. They never know who the second scorer is. And Butler is just like, he's going to go six for 11 every game. And that's kind of who he is at this point, I guess.
53:31 Speaker 01 I want to live in a world where Stephen Curry is the second guy before he's done. I just want to live that he deserves like somebody else to sort of be out there on the back to backs and he's resting. And he doesn't have to do this. He's, he's one of my favorite players of all time and it's just sad.
53:48 Bill Simmons? That world unfortunately is going to be the 2028 Olympic team.
53:53 Bill Simmons? 16 Miami, 20 and 16. We can skip them.
53:57 Bill Simmons? If only because then their fans can go, whoa, you skipped Miami, motherfucker. 14 Orlando.
54:04 Bill Simmons? 20 and 16.
54:06 Speaker 01 Right.
54:07 Bill Simmons? If I told you before the year, Anthony Black is going to make a leap.
54:12 Bill Simmons? And be a guy who could actually be an end of the game, you notice him guy. And Orlando is going to be 20 and 16. What would you, what would your reaction have been? Was there a bus crash?
54:22 Speaker 01 There was, there was some nerd community stuff about AB last year, so I wouldn't have been totally shocked.
54:29 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
54:31 Speaker 01 This is a disappointing 20 and 16 and to, to, to borrow a term from the sports guy himself, it feels like the Pistons have market corrected. The Orlando Magic's place in the, in the Eastern Conference hierarchy. Uh, I feel like Detroit sort of came in and became that top team of young, scrappy, defensive minded. Guys as, but, but you know, I was early on the what's going on with Paolo stuff and that got.
55:00 Bill Simmons? You were, you were first. I felt like that you were the, you kind of started it.
55:04 Speaker 01 It's not always a great place to be. I'll tell you, uh, and you know that better than anybody, but yeah, Paolo's got to be more consistent. They're still, they still have a negative net rating when he's on the floor.
55:12 Bill Simmons? Paolo has to be more consistent. He's shooting 26% from three. Shooting 45% in a league where everybody's stats are way up. Like my fear with him.
55:23 Speaker 01 Yeah.
55:24 Bill Simmons? And it's super early. They can't do anything this year. He's a poison pill guy. They can't trade him. My fear for him though is he, I don't want him to turn into one of those early 2000s forwards that we had. The Sharif, Juwan Howard, Antoine Jameson, Antoine, these guys that they were in the low twenties with stats.
55:44 Speaker 01 Yeah.
55:45 Bill Simmons? You kind of felt like they weren't ever going to make a shot in the last minute of a game, but the teams really deferred to them and you're just kind of in no man's land with them. I think. I think it's in, it's in a little bit of play now with him. As young as he is, it's just my fear.
55:59 Speaker 01 Yeah. The league, as we talked about earlier, the league is sort of moving on and a different, you know, it's just a smarter league and like these kinds of inefficiencies. These habits, these inefficient habits or these inabilities on defense. For Paolo, it's a jump shooting problem. You can't take this many jumpers and be this bad at it. And be a superstar. Those days are gone. There were times when you could do that. We're not doing that anymore. So he's got to get a better shot diet. Pass it a little bit more.
56:26 Bill Simmons? He's got to be a complimentary player.
56:28 Speaker 01 Right, that's what I'm saying. And he can do it.
56:29 Bill Simmons? It's one or the other.
56:30 Speaker 01 And that's the most frustrating thing. And league history is full of these frustrating dudes. You know it better than me. Guys who could be playmakers, but insisted on being that scorer. That's, that's where it's headed right now. And I just want to see him sort of wake up to, he is a very well-rounded talent.
56:50 Bill Simmons? If their season goes terribly,
56:53 Bill Simmons? they will be maybe a top three most fascinating summer team.
56:57 Speaker 01 Yeah.
56:57 Bill Simmons? Cause they'll be able to trade him in the summer and maybe they'll just decide, we could, let's cash this asset in. Another team would decide, oh my God, Palo's available and, and we're off. Number 13, we are now in the pleasant surprises category. Philadelphia at 19 and 15. Point 0.9 rating. I think they're 30 and 0 in clutch games.
57:18 Speaker 01 Yeah.
57:18 Bill Simmons? I don't, I don't feel like I've ever seen them lose a clutch game until last night.
57:22 Speaker 01 Last night was ugly.
57:23 Bill Simmons? Somehow Denver, Denver's G League team smoked them in overtime.
57:30 Bill Simmons? Listen, we've talked about them a bunch in the past on this pod. I still think Maxie's been a first team NBA guy. I'm having trouble putting a ceiling on VJ at this point. I don't really know what I'm watching anymore. Initially, I thought it was like early Dwyane Wade, but now I'm like, this just might be Dwyane Wade.
57:48 Speaker 01 He's great.
57:49 Bill Simmons? Like for real, this might be Dwyane Wade again. And then there are moments where you're like, is, is that not high enough of a ceiling? And I think Dwyane Wade is a top 30 guy. I'm not saying VJ's going to get there. I'm just saying there's moments where you're like, oh my God.
58:05 Speaker 01 Right.
58:05 Bill Simmons? What was that?
58:07 Speaker 01 He had some big threes last night in, in that loss. But yeah, it's just, it feels to me like there's like this fun story in the backcourt and then sad story in the frontcourt with this team. And it goes to the cap sheet too. It's like, hey, we're paying a lot of money for these sad dudes in the frontcourt. And then we're paying like, we have cost control on these incredibly fun young guards with Maxie.
58:31 Bill Simmons? Do you think Paul George has been that bad? Cause I actually don't think he's been that bad in what I've seen.
58:35 Speaker 01 No.
58:36 Bill Simmons? He's been fine.
58:36 Speaker 01 It's Davis, right? It's, it's, if he's out there, I'm, I'm, I'm happy. He's such a good defender still. He has such great instincts and he's such a veteran, but it's 18 games, Bill. He's played 18 games. Here we go again.
58:47 Bill Simmons? I haven't minded what I saw. I, I think the most important thing that's happened with them. I don't know what happens with Embiid. I mean, history will tell you we're, we, we know what's gonna happen. But the most important thing that's happened is that it's Maxey's team at the end of these games now. Like yesterday, when they had, when they actually needed a basket in regulation OT.
59:08 Speaker 01 Yeah.
59:08 Bill Simmons? Everyone else goes to the side and Maxey tries to figure out what they're gonna do. And I never thought Embiid would, you know, as long as he was on the court, I always felt like they would be trapped by this Embiid thing. And I don't think they are anymore. I think they kind of know like this is now Maxey's team. Everybody gets it. So even just accomplishing that is huge, I think.
59:27 Speaker 01 Yeah, I agree. And, and like, he's the face of the team. If you look at the early returns and All-Star voting, he's near the top. He's a superstar in the making. And then to your point about VJ, it's like, that's, that's good. Like I said about Cooper earlier, it's like, there's two kinds of teams. Those who have a clear future direction and those who don't. And like, the Sixers have two of the best young guards in the NBA. Uh, and that's a great place to be. Uh, the Joel Embiid situation, like he made some terrible plays down the stretch in that Denver loss, which was one of the more shocking results of, of recent NBA. Like, just, just the, the, who was the best player on that Nuggets team last night? Pickett, I think.
1:00:07 Bill Simmons? Bruce Brown and Pickett.
1:00:08 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:00:09 Bill Simmons? It was a fascinating game. I watched the whole second half and I'm like, what's going on here? Just kept waiting for Denver to die because I'm rooting against Philly, obviously from a Celtics standpoint. But, um, they, listen, whatever happens, the fans love these two guys and everything else will shake out. They're fine. Uh, number 12, Toronto, 22 and 15. They were a couple of points last week. I felt like the season was gonna tilt on them and go the other way. And they pulled that one game and then all of a sudden they seem fine. I'm still, to me, they feel like a regular season team to me. Because of the bench, um, which in the playoffs, I just think is way harder to be sustainable. But over the course of 82 games, when you have four or five guys that can come in and swing a quarter,
1:00:54 Bill Simmons? it's a little better. But they've definitely been a little better than I thought. I, I'm still, still dubious.
1:01:01 Speaker 01 It's a great step forward for them.
1:01:03 Bill Simmons? Great step forward for them. Not as dubious as I am of this next team. We are now in the enigmas category, number 11. The Lakers, 22 and 11 with a minus 0.2 rating.
1:01:16 Bill Simmons? And they just like the Memphis game the other day, Memphis is, you know, taking it to them in the second quarter. They're up like 15 and Coward, who's killing them, gets hurt.
1:01:28 Speaker 01 Right.
1:01:28 Bill Simmons? And then the Lakers turned that. I feel like they've had five of those this year. I'm just gonna say this is not a 22 and 11 team. I don't think they think they're a 22 and 11 team. JJ seems like he's ready to start drinking on the sidelines during these games. The vibes are just very strange.
1:01:44 Speaker 01 Yeah, they have. I'm looking at their last 15 games. I mean, they have won over their expected statistical profile all year long. Like over the last 15 games, they're eight and seven. That's pretty good. But their net rating is negative five and they have the worst defense in the, in the Western Conference outside of Utah in that time period. Like they are, I don't know how they're doing it. Obviously, when they win, they have some great offensive weapons to, to credit. But dude, when you see the defensive numbers of the Los Angeles Lakers, this screams lottery to me. I mean, when you're down there on defense, it's very hard to even
1:02:26 Speaker 01 make the playoffs. They, they are maybe the best shooting team in the NBA and they get to the free throw line more than anybody. But even with those two incredible things I just said, they're 500. They model like a 500 team and somehow to your earlier point, they're 22 and 11.
1:02:46 Bill Simmons? Their last 15 games, they're minus 4.9 offensive rating, which is fifth worst in the league. The teams behind them are Sacramento, Indiana, Utah, and Washington.
1:02:57 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:02:57 Bill Simmons? Like, think about that. New Orleans has a better net rating with them. Defensively, they are 29th in the last 15 games. Like this is like, you're losing any playoff round you play with how bad they are on defense and they don't seem really happy either. So, there you go. Number 10, Cleveland. It's like we've talked about them every week on the pod. I just want to see all their guys playing together for three weeks before I figure out what, and that includes the role guys. Like, let me just see the healthy calves for three weeks before I decide. Three games over 500 is stunning to me though. Plus 2.4 rating. Okay. Number nine, the maybe sleeper.
1:03:39 Speaker 01 Mm hmm.
1:03:41 Bill Simmons? The Phoenix Suns, the 21 and 15.
1:03:45 Bill Simmons? 1.7 net rating, over and over again, winning these close games, or coming close to winning these close games, or just being in close games. They've been one of the league's past MVPs of the year. They feel like they have, even though his stats are basically the same as last year, they brought back Booker.
1:04:06 Speaker 01 Yep.
1:04:07 Bill Simmons? Where he's, he's in, he's in, he's bought into everything they're doing. That was great, considering they reinvested in him. The Dillon Brooks thing's been really fun. They got two games from Jalen Green all year. Not sure that matters. How fluky is this team?
1:04:25 Speaker 01 Not fluky. I think they're the Jacksonville Jaguars of, of the current NBA season. I don't think any of us saw this coming. They have a new coach, a new identity. I think Dillon Brooks deserves more credit than any person on the roster for sort of changing the brand of this team that you and I watched together last year in Austin. It looked like they hated one another. They looked like they didn't like their coach. And some people at ESPN, our friends over there, said this is the worst predicament of any team in the league by far.
1:04:57 Bill Simmons? It probably was.
1:04:58 Speaker 01 And I'm not, I'm not roasting those people. I'm just saying like, that's what people were saying around the NBA and here they are. It's, it's one of the best stories in the league and, and a year where there's some great stories. You know, Gillespie has been great. Goodwin is great. Jordan On is brought this offensive.
1:05:14 Bill Simmons? You mean Goodwin, the guy the Lakers waved?
1:05:16 Speaker 01 Dude, you could make a pretty good team.
1:05:18 Bill Simmons? To keep Bronny James and Dalton Connect? They waved Jordan Goodwin.
1:05:21 Speaker 01 Zubotch is on that team.
1:05:23 Bill Simmons? A team that can't guard anybody. That's unbelievable.
1:05:25 Speaker 01 Julius Randall.
1:05:26 Bill Simmons? Oh, my Lord.
1:05:27 Speaker 01 Yeah, the former Laker All-Stars. Oso, big leap for him. He closed games. But I'll say, you know, I watched their game pretty closely at the end last night. Tough back to back. By the way, we should mention, they beat OKC. And that was another sort of like, oh, this is not fluky. Then they go to Houston on a back to back bill. And that's what you would call an either or game in the NBA. Durant hits one of the best shots of his entire career in the regular season, just to end that game. Awesome moment for him. Awesome moment for the Rockets. But from a Phoenix perspective, you gotta be pretty good. That's a tough back to back and, and you beat the Thunder and then hang with the Rockets till the very end. So I mean, I think
1:06:11 Speaker 01 it's all about Ott and Dillon Brooks, but you're right. Booker is the leader of the-
1:06:17 Bill Simmons? All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV. You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you are live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching. Just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun, sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead. But what if you went to Cancun with Expedia? Save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully,
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1:07:08 Speaker 01 This team. And now, the last thing I'll say, how did that game end? Everybody knows they need to get the ball to Booker. The secondary offensive option there, Dillon Brooks, that doesn't really scare anybody in those kinds of moments. So going forward, I think they need one more threat on offense beyond Booker to be, to get to that next level of Western Conference.
1:07:28 Bill Simmons? They might have it. It might be Jalen Green.
1:07:30 Speaker 01 Yeah, that's fair. Let's see it.
1:07:32 Bill Simmons? I watch them. I see a lot of the same stuff. I, I think it's the most stunning thing of the year. I was under on them for 31 and a half games. They're exceptionally well coached.
1:07:43 Speaker 01 Right.
1:07:44 Bill Simmons? He's awesome. He, they, every game, everybody seems like they know where, it's same thing with the Celtics. They know where they should be, what their role is, they're bought in. Everybody gives a shit, which is another thing I talked about a couple of weeks ago with, I think with Legs about the secret to the Celtics' success this year is every single guy on the team has something to prove. I think you could say the same for Phoenix. So you go down the line, every single guy has something to prove. Brooks is mad they traded him. Gillespie wants to show he's a player. Mark Williams got traded to the Lakers. They pulled out of the trade. He's in fuck you mode. Charlotte trades him. But you go on down the line and all these guys are bought in and have something to prove, which, you know, during a regular season matters.
1:08:27 Bill Simmons? But, you know, the, the fact that, uh, they can defend with guys that are just fringe guys that a lot of teams could have had. But I, the, the Booker piece is the main piece to me. Like they have somebody at the end of these games. The same thing the Celtics had with Jalen. They have somebody that can go toe to toe with whoever the other guy's best player is. Philly has that with Maxey. You have to have one of those guys now because you get into these four minutes left situations. And if you don't have the guy to match baskets, you're going to lose.
1:08:56 Speaker 01 Yeah. And it's almost like this mystical thing. The year over year vibe differential is one of the greatest I've ever seen. If not the greatest, I can't think of another one where it just went from so toxic.
1:09:09 Bill Simmons? Right.
1:09:09 Speaker 01 The exact opposite of toxic. Like you're saying, that defensive identity, the rebounding, that cohesion, that give a shitness. And you got to look at Jordan not, um, Brian Gregory has sort of reinvented the front office, but, and then Dillon Brooks on the floor. As I mentioned, just talk about a give a shit guy, like every second, every game, maybe too much, but he, he, it's contagious. And I just love their identity.
1:09:34 Bill Simmons? Yeah. And the Celtics have a bunch of those guys too. And I don't think it's an accident to compare those two teams. You have guys that shouldn't feel like they're as good as everyone on the other team, but they do. Like if the Celtics play OKC, they're going to think they should beat OKC. Does that make sense on paper? No. Phoenix beats OKC two nights ago. It makes no sense on paper. I just like where they're at. We're moving into the contenders now, number eight, New York, which is the flip side of this. Where New York looks like they're already tired of each other. After they won the NBA Cup, it's like, that wasn't the title, guys. That was the cup. I mean, I won't be the first person to make this point or the last. It really feels like there's, there's some hardcore evidence now that you don't want to be in the semifinals of the NBA Cup if you care about the season.
1:10:18 Bill Simmons? You're better off just getting out of there. This has ruined every team, every year that's been in there.
1:10:23 Speaker 01 Well, the second place finisher in the NBA Cup is often, it's often the stepping stone is finishing second.
1:10:30 Bill Simmons? Yeah, not winning though.
1:10:32 Speaker 01 You don't want. It's true. And I know you probably know this or have it at your fingertips, but I think there's still the favorites to win the Eastern Conference, right?
1:10:42 Bill Simmons? They are. I wouldn't bet on them though.
1:10:44 Speaker 01 When I look at the West and the East, I would take OKC versus the field still in the West. And I know we have to address some stuff going on with the Thunder. But I'm certainly taking the field over the Knicks in the East, particularly the Pistons, who I think are a superior team, exhibit A last night on the basketball court. But also your team, which I don't know if you're doing the, the reverse jinx. I think that's the best story in the NBA right now ahead of the Suns. And I think the Celtics are going to be a real threat. And wouldn't it be so great for Celtics fans to see that Knicks team again in the playoffs?
1:11:23 Bill Simmons? And Tatum going back to MSG?
1:11:25 Speaker 01 Yeah, like it would be a great thing. But from the Knicks perspective, dude, the defense isn't good enough right now. The defense isn't good enough right now. You can pick on Towns, you can pick on Brunson. You compare that to what's going on in Detroit where they just have the best defense in the conference. If they're not shooting the lights out. And when I saw them beat San Antonio, that core group of five guys is one of the best offensive groups that you can have on the court. The problem's on the other end. And is that really a championship level defense? For me, I'm sorry. I think the answer is no.
1:11:59 Bill Simmons? Multiple guys to pick on.
1:12:01 Speaker 01 Right. Point of attack and rim protect. Now, Mitchell Robinson changes the geometry for them. But point of attack, just like the Lakers, we can pick on you there and you don't protect the rim particularly well. What are you doing good on defense?
1:12:17 Bill Simmons? I feel like I ask this question every three weeks, but.
1:12:21 Bill Simmons? Would you think about Davis for Towns?
1:12:24 Speaker 01 They love the Kentucky guys. That's an interesting one. I don't think so.
1:12:31 Bill Simmons? Couple of weeks ago, the answer was no, because Towns was having a good year and Davis hadn't proven he could even stay in the court.
1:12:41 Bill Simmons? Now I think it's a little more reasonable.
1:12:44 Speaker 01 What about, what about the honest stuff? Do you think that's in play for them?
1:12:49 Bill Simmons? I just don't think it's conceivable this season.
1:12:51 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:12:52 Bill Simmons? I don't think, I just don't think it works from a, from a trade machine standpoint.
1:12:57 Speaker 01 You would take the field over the Knicks in the Eastern Conference?
1:13:01 Bill Simmons? I would take, if you just gave me New York on one end and Detroit, Boston, Cleveland on the other end, I would take Detroit, Boston, Cleveland.
1:13:09 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:13:09 Bill Simmons? I think it's more realistic, one of those three teams win from what we've seen the last two weeks.
1:13:14 Speaker 01 Yeah, we're aligned. I mean, by the way, we should say the Knicks have a four game losing streak at the exact time the Celtics have surged.
1:13:22 Bill Simmons? The bigger issue for me with them is there's two teams in the East that I think are just bad matchups for them, Detroit and Boston.
1:13:28 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:13:29 Bill Simmons? Boston has all these dudes to throw at Brunson.
1:13:33 Bill Simmons? And when Tatum, I don't know what happens when Tatum comes back, how many minutes he's gonna have, but I just, I think they like the matchup against the Knicks. And then Detroit is kind of built to beat the Knicks, you know, and they have a million guys to throw at them. They're tougher than the Knicks frontcourt. And that's just going to come down to how good is Mitchell Robinson going to be in that series, I think, if it's Knicks Pistons.
1:13:53 Speaker 01 And we saw it last year, I think.
1:13:54 Bill Simmons? We saw it last year, he swung the series.
1:13:56 Speaker 01 New York is, is, is as good as they were last year, but Detroit is much better. And Detroit almost took them out last year, arguably could have without a bad call.
1:14:04 Bill Simmons? Duren's at a different guy. Yeah.
1:14:08 Bill Simmons? I'd be a little worried if I'm the Knicks, but we've learned over the years, don't, don't get to anything one way or the other when it's game 36. I don't think it's a good sign where they look now. I could see them turning it around, but you made the key point. They have two guys on defense you can just pick on. Number seven, Minnesota, 23 and 13. I'd still continue to think they're underrated because of how good Ian is and they know who they are. And I'm sure they'll figure out some sort of point guard, some, some way to make that a little better. The only point I had on this team was I think Randall and DiVincenzo for Towns was just a great trade. It's interesting to have a trade that was that big.
1:14:47 Bill Simmons? That a year plus later, I feel like both teams would still do it.
1:14:50 Speaker 01 Oh, that's interesting. Yeah, that's a good point.
1:14:52 Bill Simmons? Where it's like, they would just no hesitation, still say yes, which usually you have a trade and then a year later, it's like, eh, like the Warriors with Jimmy Butler, I know they didn't give up that much, but would they, are they as excited about that trade? Seven months later is probably not, right? You go through and most teams are like, ah, I don't know. Celtics number six. We've talked about, I've talked about them too much on the pod, but I, I just think, I said to Sal on Sunday, this, this thing with Tatum coming back, whenever he comes back, trying to fit into how different the team is now. And how different they play and how much runs through Jalen and
1:15:33 Bill Simmons? the two guards, they don't walk it up. They're always like trying to make decisive moves. There's a lot of movement and Pritchard and White and then Simons, when he comes in, have the ball a lot. And this was a team that was very Tatum dependent, walking it up, trying to side people standing around. And I just don't think that's the team anymore. And the two bigs, the way that they're, as I mentioned earlier, were able to screen for the guys 20 feet from the basket. Like, he's never really had that before. So on paper, you're like, just replace Shireman and some Hauser and some Minot and replace some minutes and just put Jason Tatum in there, they're going to be better. But, you know, it's, I need to see it.
1:16:14 Speaker 01 Well, we've seen it, like some stunning stats, like the way I look at the game, in the last 15 games, they have the best record in the NBA. They have the best net rating in the NBA. They have the best offense in the NBA.
1:16:29 Bill Simmons? And they have some really good wins.
1:16:31 Speaker 01 And here's.
1:16:32 Bill Simmons? They've gone toe to toe with almost all the good teams at this point.
1:16:36 Speaker 01 Yeah, they do. And they look good. And, and that's what I'm saying. Like, the way I look at the game, it's like, why am I supposed to think that, that New York is better than, than this team? Certainly recently, they haven't been. And then the most compelling player in the next four months in the NBA is Jason Tatum.
1:16:54 Bill Simmons? Like, yeah.
1:16:55 Speaker 01 We're, I just told you the record over the last 15 games, the foundation is so much better than any of us thought it was five months ago. I'm so impressed with the depth of the Boston Celtics, the next man up thing, the, the Spanish rookies they're finding. Kada's ability to, to be so much more energetic, Missoula's ability to reimagine the offense around Jalen Brown in a high usage role. And Derrick White, who's not shooting it particularly well, but doing everything else perfectly.
1:17:27 Speaker 01 Dude, like if you're getting your first team all NBA guy back on top of this, it becomes the most interesting story in the second half of the NBA season.
1:17:38 Bill Simmons? Yeah, it's funny. I, I look at it. I really miss his rebounding and his defense. Thought he was a great rebounder, especially when you go against some of these teams that are bigger. I think he was like 11th in rebounding last year.
1:17:49 Speaker 01 It's the most underrated part of his, his game.
1:17:51 Bill Simmons? Yeah, he was 10 rebounds a game and in playoffs that goes up to 12. So I think like just getting the rebound and the defense and how smart of a kinda just fit into the whatever's happening player he is, just getting that, we don't need him to score 30 a game on this team anymore. He needs to fit in with the other stuff, but he's Jason Tatum, he's third in the MVP last year. And we'd never really seen a situation like this. There's also, Jalen went up a level and I think from running an offense through a team.
1:18:21 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:18:22 Bill Simmons? I mean, I'm sorry, running an offense through a guy. Jalen's as good as Tatum is right now with running offense through him, the way he's able to use his teammates and the shots that he's able to get. He's moved to the same level as Tatum. So it's a good problem to have, but it is a problem.
1:18:38 Speaker 01 And it's another look. It's like when the Spurs could win with Timmy on the post and then run Manu off the bench and, and he's slashing and, and they're playing like a different game. This whole like Spanish pick and roll stuff they have going on with JB. It is another sort of look that their, their offense is completely different. And then when Tatum comes back, they can, they can throw different looks. It's almost like having different pitchers to throw at a batter like they.
1:19:06 Bill Simmons? Well, one thing I was thinking was when they do the five out, which they've done a lot more of this year. And they have, it'll be like Hauser and yeah, somebody else in the corner, Simons in the corner, whoever with Jalen kind of running it and then maybe a guy coming up or, but just him, him as the focal point, trying to either find people or shoot a two.
1:19:26 Bill Simmons? You put Tatum in the corner now, which they never really did last year. It was always like kind of Jalen would be the one that was always in the corner. You moved, you moved Tatum as a supporting guy playing off Jalen. We never really saw that enough. Even in the finals, when they were kind of doing the dueling banjos thing, they didn't have the five out the way it works now. I don't think.
1:19:45 Speaker 01 To your earlier point, like imagine Jason as that crashing rebounder coming off the weak side when, when Jalen's running this current action. Like he is such a, he's never got to do that. This is like I said.
1:19:59 Bill Simmons? Or could Jalen send him picks? Could he send him like the Garza type picks? I don't even know if he'd be good at that. We never saw it. So I, the key is they need to get him back if he's going to come back, um, beginning of March, I think to, to see it kind of work for two months, ease him back, play him 15, 16 minutes a game and just make it additive. Don't make it seem like, all right, you're back. You're Jason Tatum again. Like, I don't think they can do that. I don't think they will.
1:20:24 Speaker 01 I have two questions for you that I'm sure your audience wants to hear you answer about the Boston Celtics. The first one is what are the streets talking about with Jason, the timetable with this thing?
1:20:35 Bill Simmons? It's always been all-star break, March range. Um, and I think they're rightfully super hesitant about it. I think the thing that's changed, it was funny watching him at the Clipper game on Saturday. He goes to all the games. He's part of the team. He's coming back. Like there's no question. Um, I think what was interesting was they were going to be in a position a little like Indiana right now. That, that was the worst case scenario of the season.
1:20:59 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:21:00 Bill Simmons? Well, what, what happens if we're?
1:21:04 Bill Simmons? 10 and 29 and he's ready to come back and you kind of have to be like, no dude, hold off. That's completely flipped. Now it's like this team's an actual contender. So of course he's coming back. And what would be the point of him not coming back? If he's ready to play, it's a 10 month injury. Why would he want to wait till October to play basketball again? He's in his twenties, you know? So he's coming back.
1:21:27 Speaker 01 Well, that's my second question then. If this guy comes back and he's 85% of Jason Tatum, do they immediately become the favorites to win the Eastern Conference? Or is it like a Jordan and number 45 jersey era? Like it's gonna take a minute.
1:21:42 Bill Simmons? I don't think they're the favorites. I think we've seen this too many times with guys coming back. And the most famous one, somebody sent me an email about this. I apologize. I can't remember the person, but about the 04 Kings with, it became Paige's team because Chris Webber was hurt. And the Kings fans were like, oh, and Chris Webber, as soon as he comes back, this is going to be awesome. And then Chris Webber came back and it screwed them up. Now, Chris Webber was broken down at that point of his career for the most part. I think that was the difference. Tatum's not going to be broken down. He's going to be healthy. But you know, it's, it's not perfect. There's, there's been scenarios where guys have come back and it hasn't gone the way
1:22:22 Bill Simmons? people thought, but.
1:22:24 Speaker 01 Well, let me say it for you because I made Zach say the Spurs were in pristine shape the day after Christmas. And I'll say it for you. I think the Boston Celtics are in a very, very strong position if they get 80% of Jason Tatum in March.
1:22:42 Bill Simmons? The one thing that I think has unquestionably changed is they were definitely going to try to get under the first apron and completely reset everything and try to figure out how to trade Simons and do those trades like, Simons for Malik Monk and you save 6 million and you pay somebody to take Tillman, that kind of stuff. They're not thinking that way anymore. And Simons, if you're doing six man of the year, he's in the running now.
1:23:04 Speaker 01 Right.
1:23:05 Bill Simmons? I mean, Simons is like 14 points a game and he's, comes in, he's getting more and more comfortable each. So I don't, I think the saving money thing's gone. And they have a new owner who hasn't ever rooted for a good team before, Chisholm, who everybody speaks highly of. It's not like he's going to be going. Yeah, yeah, no. Can we just cut another 6 million? Like, this guy's like, holy shit, we're good. I thought I bought 11.
1:23:30 Bill Simmons? Number five, Detroit, 27 and 9. We talked about them. It'd be interesting, the big thing for them is, give it a year or go for it. Houston, number four, 22 and 11, a little bit in the same issue of, they could get wacky and just do like Fred VanVleet and a contract and some of their picks and just say fuck it and try to get Trey or John Moran or one of these dudes, just to, but I don't think they will. I think they'll,
1:23:57 Bill Simmons? I think they'll.
1:23:57 Speaker 01 I think they're good. They're good. They won that tough game last night. This is kind of where I thought they would be overall, but I've been shocked at how competent their offense has been without Fred VanVleet. But the offensive rebounding, the historic stuff, it bears mentioning. It's like they're just punishing people. I know Shengun's missing some time, but, but Steven Adams is still just the most dominant offensive rebounder in the league and, and that gives them an identity. And like you said, what did they lack last year, Bill? A guy who could make the exact shot that Kevin Durant made last night.
1:24:32 Bill Simmons? He, I do my all NBA three teams every, every week just to update it. So I have it in my head and I think Durant's played his way into the 13.
1:24:44 Bill Simmons? I think there's two Rockets that you would have to put in the top 15 now. And I think Booker's on there too, would be the other guy.
1:24:49 Speaker 01 Thompson looked electric last night too, like.
1:24:51 Bill Simmons? Thompson's on the bubble. Thompson's another one where it's like, oh man, you might have to throw the stats out with him. Number three, San Antonio.
1:25:02 Bill Simmons? I mean, we've talked about them on the Ringer all over the place the last couple of weeks. We'll see. It's, it's, what, am I getting Wemby healthy in April, May and June? And there's no way to know.
1:25:13 Speaker 01 No way to know.
1:25:13 Bill Simmons? I just want to see him play for three straight months, please.
1:25:17 Speaker 01 The biggest development there is even if he's not there, they're a good team, which is crazy. I was out on the Spurs for a playoff spot this year in large part because I didn't believe without Wemby, they could walk and chew gum at the same time. They've done more than that. Fox has fit in and then like the young guards, Castle has made the leap. Dylan Harper, I don't know which of these two guards I like more. I go back and forth. I love them. And then Harrison Barnes, Champagny, Keldon Johnson.
1:25:48 Speaker 01 This, Luke Cornet, this is just.
1:25:50 Bill Simmons? Cornet signing was great.
1:25:52 Speaker 01 It was great. And Harrison Barnes.
1:25:54 Bill Simmons? He's the Celtic we missed the most out of all the guys that left.
1:25:57 Speaker 01 Well, do you, do you think the Celtics should get in the market for a Gafford or another big? Like if, I, I think they're going to compete this year. That front court, as good as Kate has been, Garza, it's a nice story. Do you want to bolster that front court a little bit?
1:26:14 Bill Simmons? I think there's buyout potential with somebody. I don't, I'd be really surprised that they did a trade.
1:26:20 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:26:20 Bill Simmons? I don't, sometimes when it's going really, I think Phoenix is probably in the same boat. When you have something really special going on with a group of guys that just like playing basketball with each other. I don't, I don't want to fuck with it. You saw Cleveland do it last year. When they were playing great and then they did that Hunter trade and they've kind of never been the same since. Not his fault, but it messed with their chemistry.
1:26:40 Speaker 01 Yeah. Jerome was a big part of their vibe. Yeah.
1:26:44 Bill Simmons? One thing I'll say about San Antonio, because I did a lot of research on them and I was trying to figure out if I'd want to make a move or not if I was them. Kelton Johnson's like the kid, there was a huge piece about him. Last week, Kelton Johnson's like the emotional fulcrum of their team.
1:26:59 Speaker 01 Dude.
1:26:59 Bill Simmons? They love him. Like he's, he's like the guy in that team. And it's like, if you're making a big trade for somebody with them, him and Barnes have to be in it. And I think those are two huge locker room guys for them. I don't see them doing anything.
1:27:11 Speaker 01 Kelton was like this neither here nor there guy for a few years. And it's an incredible sort of teaching lesson because what happened, Bill, was like, they just got deeper. He slid down a notch or two in their rotation and then became like the energy guy. And one of the best sort of energetic off the bench rebounders in the league. Uh, and just this, I'm going to be Mr. Effort, like peak Kenneth Faried. And it brings the, the arena just loves him. I don't think you could move him. I, they're another team that I just don't think you mess with this chemistry right now.
1:27:43 Bill Simmons? Couldn't agree more. Unless Trey Murphy became available, then you'd have to really probably think about it at that point. Uh, Denver number two, 24 and 12, and everyone on the team is hurt. And the only thing to really say about this is, um, A, I miss Jokic, but just miss him.
1:27:59 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:27:59 Bill Simmons? I'm like, I'm like, uh, I'm like the, the weatherman, the sports guy and anchorman. I just miss, I miss your scent, miss your musk.
1:28:10 Bill Simmons? Maybe you should actually get an apartment together. I just miss Jokic. I just miss him.
1:28:15 Speaker 01 There's like a five year subgenre of the Simmons podcast where you talk about Embiid playing Jokic and Embiid ducking the, the, the smoke. Uh, and we missed that last night. That would have happened last night.
1:28:27 Bill Simmons? I know.
1:28:29 Speaker 01 So we missed him, but, but dude, I, there's a quirky chance here that this, this Denver team with all these injuries.
1:28:35 Bill Simmons? This might be good for them.
1:28:36 Speaker 01 Stumbles into some depth for the long term.
1:28:39 Bill Simmons? They're getting, getting reps for dudes that wouldn't be playing otherwise.
1:28:42 Speaker 01 Pickett's like the one that, man, I've always loved that guy and he's such a sort of a five tool player and, and I'd love to see him find his way more into the rotation. Maybe like last night he was excellent in that win. Um, but this is still the best offense in the league.
1:28:58 Bill Simmons? Did you see they're averaging almost a hundred or before Jokic got hurt, it was almost 125 points a game? Just 125 points a game?
1:29:08 Speaker 01 I didn't see that.
1:29:08 Bill Simmons? That's why with some of these stats, it's, I, I almost feel like we're heading toward where baseball hit in the mid nineties. When the baseball stats for different reasons, um, started to become crazy and you almost couldn't compare errors anymore. It's like, how am I going to compare this to something in 1977? I feel when, if you actually go, like you just go on basketball reference or wherever, and you just, just look at the points per game, all the guys and all the guys averaging like 22 points a game or shooting 40% from three. It's like fucking bonkers. It's like 60 guys. It feels like.
1:29:43 Speaker 01 Dude, the one that I had in my notes, I'll, I'll go back to it just because it makes this point, like Con Knippel is hitting 44% of his threes on over eight per game. Like that's one of the best three point shooting seasons ever. He's a rookie, but it's like there's so much shooting talent now. This office efficiency is, is through the roof. And you're right. Like it's inflated some of the numbers like, uh, Balco, uh, did back in the day for.
1:30:08 Bill Simmons? It really feels that way. Like Shaden Sharp is averaging 21.6 points a game.
1:30:13 Speaker 01 Right.
1:30:15 Bill Simmons? Josh Giddy is averaging 19, nine and nine on a Bulls team. Nobody cares about. It's just really hard to figure all this stuff out. So we agree on Denver. I think the only thing for them is if they fall past, they can fall past four. They can't fall in the seven, eight, nine, 10. I think they need to, six has to be the basement for them. If Jokic is actually out for a while. There's whatever. They don't care if they don't have home game sevens. They don't care about that.
1:30:45 Speaker 01 They're so much better than they were last year. If they're whole. Jamal Murray looks better. They have a deeper group. Brown is getting a little bit better. I think the coaching staff's in a better spot and they brought the Thunder to the brink last year. So
1:31:02 Bill Simmons? They sure did.
1:31:03 Speaker 01 Nobody wants to see them in the playoffs. If they end up at seven or eight or whatever, dude, like.
1:31:09 Bill Simmons? Well, let's end on the Thunder because we said this is going to be an hour or almost an hour and a half. Thunder 30 and seven, four and four in their last eight, 13.3 net rating still, which is still number one. I have my theory for, I don't want to say what's wrong, but what's maybe a mildly alarming. What's your theory?
1:31:31 Speaker 01 Dude, I think the NBA changed on December 12th or 13th, when the first Spurs win happened in Vegas. I think that changed the temperature in the Western Conference. A week later, Bill, this is sort of the canonical moment of the season. Finch, who hates the Thunder, has publicly said he hates how the Thunder play, goes into that game in Minnesota and he's ready to explode. And sure enough, he gets a chance, he gets ejected. And you know, the Thunder are six and six in their last 12. But I looked at the numbers and the craziest thing I found is that Shay Gildes Alexander, since that Spurs game, he's gone from the fifth most
1:32:13 Speaker 01 fouled player in the NBA to the 31st most fouled player in the NBA. His free throws are way down. His ability to draw fouls has magically decreased substantially. Um, since peaking before then and JDub is the other thing. He has not clicked in with this group the way they expected.
1:32:35 Bill Simmons? He was in my notes.
1:32:37 Speaker 01 So between SGA sort of reduced free throw line activity and JDub's lack of sort of cohesion with this group. Simply put, this isn't the juggernaut that I thought they were December 10th. This is not the juggernaut that was what 24 and one. Um, and I think it's good for the league. I still think they're the favorite. Don't get mad at me, Thunder fans. But I think this is just like they've come back to earth a little bit.
1:33:03 Bill Simmons? I still have them as the favorite. I think Jalen Williams, I'm betting on him to come back and be fine. But he has not looked the same and he should have gotten better, not worse this season. I had him as like the 13th best player coming into the season. Now you wouldn't have him top 25 most impactful from what we've seen.
1:33:20 Speaker 01 Right.
1:33:21 Bill Simmons? The fear if you're a Thunder fan is, although you did win the title, so there's not that much fear. And you have a million draft picks and you have the best foundation in the league. The fear would be that 24 and one start, was that a little like when, you know, Phoenix started really well that year after they made the finals? And then they kind of peaked in December. Or the Warriors when they had the 25 game winning streak to start the season, they win 73, but then they don't win the finals. Here's what I'm looking at.
1:33:54 Bill Simmons? I, I think it's as simple as this, when they don't make threes, they're pretty beatable now.
1:33:58 Speaker 01 Yep.
1:33:59 Bill Simmons? I went back and I looked through their six losses, four of which I watched. The three San Antonio games, two of them, they were 24% from three and 25% from three. And the third one, they gave up 130, Spurs made everything, right?
1:34:13 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:34:13 Bill Simmons? Minnesota game, 28% from three. The Phoenix loss a couple of nights ago, 31% from three, and they got out rebounded by 20. And then Charlotte last night, 28% by three, got out rebounded by 18. My question, big picture with Dort, who last year was 41% for three and is now at 33. Caruso, who was 35 last year, is now at 30. My big question is, is the league becoming better enough offensively? That you can't get away with as much Dort and Caruso as they were able to get away with last year? That you actually need a little more, even though their offense is, it's up there. It's in, I think it's probably in the top eight. But just in some of these games, is that why this is not going to be a team that wins 74 games?
1:34:58 Bill Simmons? Cause their offense is not reliable enough?
1:35:00 Speaker 01 Yeah, last night, I mean, the most head scratching result of the year, in my opinion, they lose at home to the Hornets. And it was again,
1:35:07 Bill Simmons? They get killed.
1:35:07 Speaker 01 They, they could not make their perimeter shots. They lose confidence. The announcers are saying shit like, oh, there's a lid on the rim. They just can't get it. And it's like, yeah, that's, that's it. And if you look at the numbers, they have the 20.
1:35:19 Bill Simmons? Yeah, but it's worse than that though, because it's like they're, it's, this guy's open for a reason. Threes that they're missing. Caruso, nobody's guarding him anymore.
1:35:26 Speaker 01 Right.
1:35:27 Bill Simmons? That's a real issue for them. Anyway, I interrupted you.
1:35:29 Speaker 01 No, no, that's a right. And I remember noticing the Spurs really doing that. Caruso beat us and I think he was like 0 for 12 or, or one for 13. He finally made one in, in garbage time or something. But that is something to watch because the offense bill in this 12 game, I'm not going to call it a total slump, but by their standards, it's a slump, is 22nd in the NBA over the last 12 games. We haven't seen them down there and any, you can't slice the pie any, anywhere last season and find a stretch like that.
1:35:58 Bill Simmons? And the rebounding is a little bit of a concern.
1:36:01 Speaker 01 And Hartenstein's out and that's a big part of it.
1:36:04 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:36:04 Speaker 01 But I do think to your point, if the, if there's a, a crack in the foundation, it's on the offensive end of the court, specifically beyond the three point arc.
1:36:15 Bill Simmons? I think when you have guys who you used to rely on in a real way, who are now not being guarded, it's a red flag. They, like the Celtics played the Clippers Saturday night, the game 0-2. And they were like, John Collins, Chris Dunn, Batum, knock yourself out. You're going to be alone in the corner. If you make them, God bless you. And Collins made a bunch in the first half. They were like, this is, we're going to stop Kawhi. We're going to give you this shot, take it. And teams are doing that now with OKC. And then, you know, when they play San Antonio, who has plastic man in the middle, Right. Taking away Shay's mid-range game and they're not guarding Caruso. When you don't have that second guy out there who's supposed to be Jalen Williams,
1:36:58 Bill Simmons? that's where they become a little more beatable. I'm surprised though. I really thought, I thought they were such a juggernaut and so in tune with who they were. I really thought it was going to be like hard to believe when anybody beats them. And now I'm like, not surprised. Now, you made the key point, Hartenstein's been out. It does hurt them from a rebounding, but I do think Presti will maybe tinker with this team a little bit. And I wonder whether it's like, this episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes, yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other,
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1:38:28 Bill Simmons? Like, could Dort be the guy, or Caruso? Do you trade one of those guys, move Kason Wallace into that role, play Mitchell more, and try to use a Dort contract and a pick and try to get somebody really good to add? I don't know.
1:38:42 Speaker 01 It's just crazy how fast things change. I remember when I was talking about the 24-1 Thunder and how great they were, I was on with Zach, and I said, hey, a year ago at this time, the Celtics were clear favorites to win the NBA championship, that ended up being the Thunders. It's just, it happens really fast. I'm not saying that's what's happening here, but just as a fan of the NBA, it's a lot more interesting when there isn't this absolute buzzsaw destroying everybody at the top of the league, and we can start to see a path for Denver, or San Antonio, or Houston, to at least give these guys a seven gamer.
1:39:16 Bill Simmons? Dortz, yeah, somehow Dortz was born in 1999, which I don't fully understand. It feels like he's like 35. Caruso is 32, though.
1:39:27 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:39:27 Bill Simmons? So, you know, if you're going to decide, we need more, we, we need more offense from one of those two guys. It's upgrade time. That would be the spot. I think it's too early for them to panic, though. I'm not, I'm not panicking if I'm them.
1:39:39 Speaker 01 Yes, that's what I would like to end on as well. They, they deserve to be the favorites. They are still a pretty big juggernaut in this league.
1:39:47 Bill Simmons? But there's a blueprint a little bit now. Fucking rebound.
1:39:52 Speaker 01 Right.
1:39:52 Bill Simmons? And as dumb as this sounds, try to outscore them and leave Caruso alone. And maybe he'll go 0 for 9, 0 for 10, 1 for 10.
1:40:03 Bill Simmons? And that's, I guess, the blueprint. I still feel like Jalen, I believe in Jalen Williams. I think the, the way this gets fixed is he goes up a level because we know he has it in him.
1:40:12 Speaker 01 And has there been an adjustment to the foul baiting stuff? Or is that, is that a byproduct of something else?
1:40:19 Bill Simmons? Good point.
1:40:19 Speaker 01 Like, I, I gotta look at the numbers. I don't know if it's an officiating thing or people are figuring out how to defend him. But that's another thing to watch.
1:40:27 Bill Simmons? They can't figure out fucking James Harden still. He got five calls in the game I went to Saturday night. We're like, oh, my God, you guys are still falling for this? James Harden just sees four people in the paint and drives toward them like he's Derrick Henry trying to get a first down. He's like, I'm just gonna flail my.
1:40:42 Speaker 01 The giant beard gets tilted up into the sky and the refs are just, they have no choice but to, to blow the whistle at that point.
1:40:49 Bill Simmons? I'm sure he's a nice guy. I just can't watch him anymore. Like, I hate watching him in person. I just hate it. He's my least favorite player to watch because I just, 15 years of watching him just, just try to get fouls. I just don't enjoy watching it.
1:41:04 Speaker 01 I don't like it either.
1:41:05 Bill Simmons? Trade. I don't like it. I just don't like watching it. Anyway, Kirk Goldsberry, a pleasure as always. Say hi to everybody in Texas.
1:41:12 Speaker 01 Thank you, Bill.
1:41:14 Bill Simmons? All right, we're taping this on a Monday afternoon. We just did a rewatchables mailbag. Craig Horlbeck, Chris Ryan, all three of us have teams in the NFL tournament, as Mike Vrabel calls it. Did you hear that? He keeps calling it the tournament.
1:41:26 Speaker 02 Why?
1:41:27 Bill Simmons? It's like, well, now that we got the tournament, winner go home. I don't know, it's just a Mike Vrabel thing.
1:41:32 Speaker 02 Okay.
1:41:33 Bill Simmons? This is a how we feeling about our teams check. Craig Horlbeck, Giants Steelers fan. Now Giant Aaron Rodgers fan. Make the case.
1:41:40 Speaker 03 I have been all year. I'm tickled to be in the playoffs with him. What a fantastic close to the season. I think he's been underratedly great this entire year and all the off-field stuff and people not liking Aaron Rodgers anymore has colored the fact that he's been fucking great this year.
1:41:54 Bill Simmons? You're going with great?
1:41:55 Speaker 03 Yes, for a 42-year-old coming off an Achilles, I think he's been very, very good.
1:42:01 Speaker 02 So you were talking on fantasy last night about that Ravens game. And I really liked what you were saying because I noticed it too. The way he was essentially like building a castle out of sand every snap where he's like calling out his protections. He's got three guys off the street playing wide receivers.
1:42:19 Speaker 03 Helmet wasn't working. Couldn't even talk to Arthur Smith and he's drawing routes on his hand to pro bowlers from 2017. The fact that he won that game with Adam Thielen, Marques Valdes-Scantling and Scotty Miller is incredible.
1:42:32 Speaker 02 It is a kind of weird like what if of the last four years or whatever it's been where like if he had just landed in a better situation than New York. Like I wonder what the last couple of years of his playing career specifically would have been like.
1:42:45 Speaker 03 I also think he just played it right this year. He's been incredibly complimentary of Mike Tomlin, of the city of Pittsburgh, the fans, why he wanted to be with this organization, the leadership. It seems like since he's been in the league, players like him. Like whether or not like fans do, players seem to really like him. When he goes, when they played the Jets, like Breece Hall is still tweeting about Aaron Rodgers.
1:43:05 Speaker 03 I'm on board. I want him back for next year.
1:43:08 Bill Simmons? Want him back.
1:43:09 Speaker 03 Yeah. What else are we gonna do?
1:43:11 Bill Simmons? I was just looking at his stats. He threw for over 3300 yards, 24 TDs, 7 picks.
1:43:19 Speaker 03 Played every game.
1:43:20 Bill Simmons? Yeah. Yesterday was his masterpiece, though, because I couldn't believe how bad his receivers were. And they were talking about it during the game. Like, he just wants people that knows what he can do at the line of scrimmage. And, and basically like, smart people who aren't good at football anymore.
1:43:33 Speaker 02 There was one point where he had Thielen, like, he would tell Thielen what to tell the other wide receiver. And I was like, this is wild, man. Like, this.
1:43:40 Bill Simmons? Yeah. It kinda helped that the Ravens had no pass rush. And then Kyle Hamilton collided with another guy on the team.
1:43:47 Speaker 03 Yeah.
1:43:47 Bill Simmons? At the perfect time of the game. I don't know if, you know, or maybe it was karma for not having Metcalf. Cause Metcalf was a complete game changer for them. He was like, four free plays.
1:43:58 Speaker 03 Yeah.
1:43:58 Bill Simmons? A game that they could just get something out of.
1:44:00 Speaker 03 Both of their horses, Metcalf and Darnell Washington, not in this game. And it was a huge deal. Like, now, I feel, honestly, the Texans, I think, for the Steelers are one of the better matchups they could have gotten. Like, that's another, obviously, the defense is great, but like, I don't trust CJ Stroud. I think this, this game's gonna be in Pittsburgh on Monday night. I think this is like a solid matchup for the Steelers.
1:44:19 Bill Simmons? It's gonna be a really good game.
1:44:20 Speaker 03 I also think, like, the, I mean, there's games on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Rogers getting the extra day or two.
1:44:25 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:44:25 Speaker 03 I think is a big deal. TJ Watt getting the extra day or two, I think, is a big deal. And the Steelers have that ridiculous home record on Monday night. They haven't lost since 1991 at home on Monday night.
1:44:35 Bill Simmons? Really?
1:44:35 Speaker 03 Yeah.
1:44:37 Speaker 03 They also haven't won a playoff game since 2016.
1:44:39 Bill Simmons? Well, there's also the voodoo that they've had all year. Yesterday was probably the peak of it. Oh, there may be the five turnover game with the Pats was pretty good, too, but.
1:44:47 Speaker 03 I mean, I was on record like, six weeks ago, saying they should fire Mike Tomlin. So this team is, it's.
1:44:51 Speaker 02 Metcalf's back for the playoffs.
1:44:52 Speaker 03 Yeah.
1:44:53 Speaker 02 Darnell Washington, no.
1:44:54 Speaker 03 Don't think so.
1:44:55 Bill Simmons? But you have Kenneth Gainwell, the most explosive pass catching running back in the history of football.
1:45:00 Speaker 03 Gainwell and Warren.
1:45:01 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:45:01 Speaker 03 Are Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery in my mind.
1:45:04 Bill Simmons? The thing is, he's so good at bending the rules during a game and just being like, we, Sal and I talked about it on Sunday night. Like, the, the Friermuth pass route where he runs to the back of the end zone. And then just kind of does the James Harden into the safety.
1:45:20 Speaker 03 Yeah.
1:45:20 Bill Simmons? And just, ah, just kind of flails and hopes to get a pass interference. It feels like they run plays specifically to try to get pass interference.
1:45:27 Speaker 03 Yeah, he's doing all the old man, like, post-game moves, like.
1:45:31 Bill Simmons? Yeah, totally.
1:45:32 Speaker 03 He's trying to catch like 12 men on the field. Like, there's no other quarterbacks still doing that.
1:45:36 Bill Simmons? Yeah, it's calling, he doesn't care about when he uses timeouts. He's just like, I don't really like what I'm seeing there, timeout.
1:45:41 Speaker 03 Right.
1:45:42 Bill Simmons? It's like 15 minutes left in the game. But I, I gotta say, I thought there was no chance this was gonna work. I thought he was completely washed last year. He didn't want to be hit. Um, now you think of them as a home dog. I couldn't agree more on Houston.
1:45:55 Speaker 02 I just couldn't believe also last night. I mean, I know there were so many twists at the end of that game, but there, for the final touchdown drive that they had, I can't believe he's that age and after everything that's happened, I'm still like, that's too much time for Rogers.
1:46:08 Speaker 03 Dude, there, there was two minutes left with no timeouts. It only took him 55 seconds and no timeouts to go score with Thielen, MBS, Calvin Austin, and Scotty Miller. I mean.
1:46:19 Bill Simmons? I mean, he had the G Leaguers in the secondary, I guess would be the only reason. But that, it's, I think they really fucked up these field position things. Cause I, I've been thinking about that. I'm really worried about Jacksonville for the Patriots, if we can get by the Chargers. Cause I think Jacksonville's really good. They had this kicker.
1:46:35 Speaker 03 Yeah.
1:46:36 Bill Simmons? That it just, if, if you're at midfield, he can make a field goal.
1:46:40 Speaker 03 Right.
1:46:41 Bill Simmons? So you could go up three, three minute, with three minutes left, two minutes left, whatever.
1:46:46 Speaker 02 And they only have to get like 20 yards.
1:46:48 Bill Simmons? They return it to the 32. They go, they get one first down and they're in field goal range. I don't like it. I, I don't think it's a, I don't think they did a good thing with this.
1:46:56 Speaker 03 I agree, cause it's compounded with not, they changed the kickoff rules where you start at the 35 yard line. And then also they've allowed these kicking balls this year, where basically teams are allowed to prepare the football.
1:47:05 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:47:06 Speaker 03 All season long, when they used to just get like the day of the game. And so now the footballs are so much more worn in, so kickers are way more accurate at them and they can kick them further. So it's like that with the 35 yard line thing, I hate it. I want to move the, I'm okay with the kicking balls, cause it's like, if these kickers can be more accurate, like this is their actual ability we're seeing, and I'm cool with that.
1:47:23 Speaker 02 Sure.
1:47:23 Speaker 03 But the, I think we need to move the field position back.
1:47:26 Bill Simmons? I'd like the 25, not the 35. Like, if I'm at the 25 with the way the kickers can kick the ball now.
1:47:32 Speaker 03 Yeah.
1:47:34 Bill Simmons? I at least have to go 35 yards.
1:47:38 Speaker 02 I wonder if that gets offset all by everybody going for it on fourth down now though, like. Why not?
1:47:44 Speaker 03 It's just made it so much easier to score points. I mean, like, I remember there was a game, I think it was when Philip Rivers, his first game back against Seattle or whoever it was. It was Philip Rivers, who's 45 years old and hasn't played in six years, and he needed like 17 yards to get a field goal, and of course he did. And I'm like, Philip Rivers shouldn't be able to easily bring the team back and score points in the final seconds of a game. Like, this is too easy.
1:48:06 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I feel like we've lost the concept of field position because when field position actually comes into play in a game, you really feel it now. Will there be these games, whether it happens to your team, or whether a team you bet on or picked? And it feels like all of a sudden they just can't get out of their own 15, and over and over again, they're 15 and they just can't get over the hump of getting out of there. It's like, yeah, this should be what football is like more often than, I just gave up a touchdown, I'm already on the 34.
1:48:32 Speaker 02 Yeah.
1:48:33 Bill Simmons? And I need to go two first downs and I'm back in the game.
1:48:36 Speaker 03 The problem is, is the NFL wants kick returns. They want kickoffs. And you have to put the ball at the 35 to incentivize people kicking the ball inbound so that they're.
1:48:44 Speaker 02 So that they're not, right, doing the touchbacks.
1:48:46 Speaker 03 So it's kind of like a rock and a hard place thing, but I think they need to figure out the kickoff situation. Starting at the 35 is ludicrous to me now.
1:48:53 Bill Simmons? I would get rid of field goals completely in overtime.
1:48:56 Speaker 02 Hmm. You have to score?
1:48:57 Bill Simmons? They're just gone. Got to score. It's gotta be a touchdown. You gotta get a two point. And that's it. And in the playoffs, I think that would be a great rule. Every possession would matter.
1:49:07 Speaker 02 The drama of last night of Boswell missing and then Luke missing.
1:49:12 Bill Simmons? We were talking about that before we started taping the mailbag. I, I hope everybody learns now that you're never close enough on a night game when you're playing in a place like Pittsburgh. Like 12 seconds left on the 20, they're on the 22.
1:49:25 Speaker 03 It was gonna, if they're on the 25.
1:49:27 Bill Simmons? More yards.
1:49:28 Speaker 03 It was gonna be a 42 yarder, 12 seconds left with a, with a timeout. They could have easily thrown a seven yard pass and made it a 35 yarder instead.
1:49:35 Bill Simmons? Or go play action, go for the kill.
1:49:36 Speaker 03 Yeah. Lamar takes a, a, a negative two yard kneel and makes it a 44 yarder.
1:49:41 Bill Simmons? Like, what are we doing?
1:49:42 Speaker 03 Outdoors in Pittsburgh for a rookie is tough.
1:49:44 Bill Simmons? I've never liked that. Even when it works out for your team or the team you bet on, it still makes me, I hate relying on these dudes. And then this poor guy's life is ruined now.
1:49:53 Speaker 03 And Tarrigo like, like laying that up when he was like, they, they searched far and wide for a kid who could deliver in this exact moment.
1:50:00 Bill Simmons? I thought he was great. I really, I thought, I thought they did an awesome job. You're not a Brady guy.
1:50:07 Speaker 03 As an announcer?
1:50:07 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:50:08 Speaker 03 No, I'm not.
1:50:09 Bill Simmons? But what are your critiques? I agree with you. I just want to hear your take as somebody who didn't grow up with him.
1:50:13 Speaker 03 Where do I start? I think he's incredibly stiff and robotic. I don't, I think he's, doesn't know how to, what, what words are going to come out of his mouth when he starts a sentence. And he's so much better whenever you see him on a podcast or like Coward or Eisen or wherever. He goes, he's so smooth and natural. And the second, it's ironic that Tom Brady shudders when the lights are on because it's the opposite of who he is on the field, but he is just so stiff and wooden. And it's just, it's bad across the board.
1:50:39 Speaker 02 Because everybody was like, I think he, he's going to have a hard time being candid if he's the co-owner of the Raiders and has this involvement. I don't think he's had any problem being candid. If anything, like I find his sports media appearances to be pretty, pretty on, like, he's really upfront.
1:50:55 Speaker 03 Yeah.
1:50:55 Speaker 02 But it does feel like in the booth. It's not that it's moving too fast, but that he doesn't have like the same level of insight that he does when he's got a little bit more time. And the lights aren't as bright. I don't know. It's kind of funny.
1:51:08 Speaker 03 He doesn't seem relaxed. Like Aikman is just hanging out. You feel like you're at a bar with Aikman. Brady.
1:51:13 Bill Simmons? Same thing with Collinsworth.
1:51:14 Speaker 03 Yeah.
1:51:15 Bill Simmons? They, they wait for the, there's a pace to how they do it. They don't need to feel like they have to talk just to say something. They don't have to feel like, I'm making words. Words are now coming out of my mouth. Like you never feel that way with those guys.
1:51:26 Speaker 02 They also have like things that they're interested in, things that they hate. Aikman's obviously like, like got his like bugaboos that he, he'll like tee off on. Brady hasn't gotten there yet with that stuff.
1:51:37 Speaker 03 No, he, he also hasn't figured out his announcer voice. Like he's, you know how sometimes when you record a podcast remotely and you have the headphones on, you, you kind of like yell. Louder than you should. Brady's kind of doing that where he feels like he's like actually speaking to millions of people who are in a room with him. And he like always has this kind of like yell cadence to him when Aikman and Collinsworth are just like laying back and talking.
1:51:56 Bill Simmons? So you do this on the fantasy football show, but do your Brady impression.
1:52:01 Speaker 03 Baker Mayfield here, KB drops back. Just, just can't find anyone, KB, and ends up throwing the ball away. Just a brutal play for the Tampa Bay offense.
1:52:14 Speaker 02 It's just repeating what Burkhard has just said, but like as analysis. Yeah.
1:52:18 Bill Simmons? I also, he, so he does that, but he like, he did this during the Lions Bears game where he does, he, he, he is kind of assumes like this importance to things that aren't that meaningful. Or like, he's like, obviously this is a massive, massive play for the Lions. It's like, they're out of the playoffs. There's a massive play. These guys are going to a group tomorrow.
1:52:40 Speaker 02 Yeah.
1:52:41 Bill Simmons? But, but then I think that thing that's frustrating about him is there'll be these moments during the game. When all of a sudden for like 45 seconds, he's really good. And he's like, when he brings in his own experiences with stuff and you, and all of a sudden it's like, oh, that's Tom Brady.
1:52:55 Speaker 02 Do you think that there's a majority of football fans are like, it's just pretty cool that Tom Brady's calling this game?
1:53:00 Speaker 03 Maybe. I can't tell if I'm inside of a bubble.
1:53:02 Speaker 02 57% of people watching a football game or just like, that's pretty cool.
1:53:05 Speaker 03 Probably. Yes.
1:53:07 Speaker 02 Cause I think we get caught up on like, that should be Greg Olson. It's, he's so much better or whatever. But like, I wonder if like, a lot of people are like, is that Tom Brady? Awesome.
1:53:16 Bill Simmons? I, I just feel like it's Collinsworth and, and Aikman. And then it drops off and there's a couple of other guys. I thought J.J. Watt was pretty good this year. I didn't mind when he did the games. Olson was okay during the Miami Pats game yesterday, but he's with Joe Davis, who I'm just not a fan of.
1:53:32 Speaker 03 Also, man, what is aged worse than everybody being afraid that Brady being in these pregame meetings was going to help the Raiders?
1:53:37 Bill Simmons? It's the funniest thing. I mean, they, they already fired Pete Carroll.
1:53:40 Speaker 03 Yeah.
1:53:41 Bill Simmons? I would argue he's been a disaster. If he's like the conciliary for the Raiders, this couldn't have gone worse. Plus taking Ashton Gentry, the sixth pick, when you can't block.
1:53:49 Speaker 03 Yeah. I mean, like.
1:53:50 Bill Simmons? That's tough.
1:53:50 Speaker 03 You gotta fire him just because if you're going to rebuild you, the number one pick in the draft, you're probably going to take like Mendoza or, or Dante Moore. You, you can't start over with Pete Carroll, who's probably going to be there for like a year or two more anyway.
1:54:00 Speaker 02 I just, I just, I'm not entirely sure football's going to work in Vegas.
1:54:05 Speaker 03 Fernando Mendoza might be the worst fit in the city of Las Vegas that I've ever seen.
1:54:09 Speaker 02 But it might, that might be what they need. Like, they need a guy who's like, I have no interest in blackjack.
1:54:15 Bill Simmons? He's like, what is roulette? It's black and red?
1:54:18 Speaker 02 Like, I just wanna, I just wanna play football.
1:54:20 Speaker 03 Yeah, he's just like, I just go to the sphere and I play football.
1:54:22 Bill Simmons? Yeah, he strikes me as like, from the producers of Russell Wilson, we bring you Mendoza.
1:54:28 Speaker 02 He's, he's Kirk Cousins.
1:54:31 Bill Simmons? It's a weird one. How do you feel about your team?
1:54:33 Speaker 02 I was gonna ask you about this.
1:54:35 Bill Simmons? I want to ask you about this. You're an Eagles fan. You've won two Super Bowls the last seven years.
1:54:39 Speaker 02 Where are we at with the statute of limitations about when you can complain about a team that's just won a championship? Cause like, this is a big-
1:54:46 Bill Simmons? It's supposed to be five years.
1:54:47 Speaker 02 Yeah, and that was like at a different time.
1:54:49 Speaker 03 It's been 10 months.
1:54:50 Speaker 02 But no, it's, and I think it's just a very specific thing that I have a complaint about, which is that the offensive playbook and the execution of that playbook, it's very vanilla. It's a hard watch. It makes, it's a bummer to-
1:55:02 Bill Simmons? It's, hard watch is the wrong word. It's an unnecessarily hard watch.
1:55:07 Speaker 02 Yeah, for the talent.
1:55:08 Bill Simmons? I watch them and I'm just like, what, what is so hard about like playing with pace and using your receivers and using, you have all these toys.
1:55:15 Speaker 02 Also, it's like the Kremlin where it's like, it's just very unclear as to like, what's what they wanna call versus what Jalen Hurts feels comfortable running? Like, there's like two competing narratives about it. Yesterday, then they played the commanders again. I'm glad we don't have to play commanders again. I'd rather play the fucking Niners than the commanders again.
1:55:34 Speaker 02 Yesterday was like a big thing where there is a contingent of Eagles fans, of which I may or may not have participated, that were like, is it Tanner time? Would Tanner McKee run this offense? More like on, like on time and with tempo? And clearly not, although obviously didn't have the skill players out there once Devante sat down.
1:55:53 Bill Simmons? That was like when Kip Pardue was sunshine, sunshine Ronnie Bass. Remember the Titans? He's like, is this guy an A-lister? And then he was in Driven. And I was like, oh, guess that.
1:56:02 Speaker 02 But, uh, yeah, it's just been an irritating season. It was like, the first half of the season was like AJ versus Jalen. Then the second half of the season, we've just been spamming AJ, but the offense hasn't looked that much better. And I feel like every pass, the receivers are running back to the ball.
1:56:18 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:56:18 Speaker 02 There's no such thing as Yak in Philadelphia. And Saquon-
1:56:22 Bill Simmons? Have you run a trick play all year?
1:56:24 Speaker 02 I wouldn't even know what that would be. No, we haven't. There's barely any motion now.
1:56:30 Speaker 03 Yeah, there's so many offensive statistics that just show how boring the offense is. I think there's like AJ Brown has run like the least amount of snaps from the slot of any receiver in the NFL this year, which is just like the easiest way to get your best guy the ball is like move him around and he's just in the same spot.
1:56:44 Bill Simmons? It's one thing I've appreciated with the Pats this year is that they don't really have any great weapons other than the 50% of the time Diggs plays. Henry's a good tight end. He's probably a top eight tight end. The running backs are pretty good.
1:56:56 Speaker 03 Yeah.
1:56:56 Bill Simmons? But the way McDaniel's uses everybody, you feel like he's put real thought into, oh, and then the second quarter, we're going to run that fake reverse. And I, when I watch the Eagles, I don't see any of that. I just feels like they just want to take 35 seconds of play, go slow, methodical, kill the clock for some reason. It's like,
1:57:14 Speaker 02 This big and it's like,
1:57:15 Bill Simmons? Why do you want to kill the clock?
1:57:16 Speaker 02 If you watch the Hard Knocks, he, Sirianni runs through like this, like, if we win the turnover battle, we're like 57 and 1.
1:57:25 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:57:25 Speaker 02 And so it's essentially like his bet is like, if we win the turnover battle, if we don't give the ball away. And I gotta admit, watching Tanner McKee throw picks yesterday, I was like, oh, this sucks.
1:57:35 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:57:35 Speaker 02 Like we just drove all the way down the field and he threw a fucking pick on the one yard line. Like this is not, I'm glad I don't have to watch this every week, but there, there is just something that's just really grinding and we're just in a spot where we have like a CEO coach, whether or not he should be like a CEO or not, but he thinks that he has like an offensive system. Most teams have the play caller coach. We have lost our OC every year, either because they get hired away like Steichen and Kellen Moore, or we fire them like Brian Johnson and probably Kevin Patullo. And it's just a really tough spot to be in because you're constantly reshuffling. And I feel like, I don't know. I mean, like I, I, but I have no, I have nothing to complain about. Every other team would probably trade places like it's,
1:58:19 Bill Simmons? I feel like you're allowed to complain even after you won a Super Bowl if the team has so much potential and you're not reaching any of it.
1:58:26 Speaker 03 It's the endless cycle of the Eagles have a really good season and then they allow, and then so their coordinator gets hired somewhere else. And then Sirianni is allowed to bring, to pick his own play caller. That play caller sucks. They get rid of him. And then Howie's like, I'm picking the play caller. They bring in like Kellen Moore. They're good. And then the same thing happens again.
1:58:43 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:58:44 Speaker 02 And every year Jalen Hurts has to get to know another offensive coordinator now like, I, I, I just wish it was more entertaining. That's all I'm saying. Yeah.
1:58:53 Bill Simmons? I guess part of what I don't understand about football, and neither do you guys probably because we didn't play. Is this it?
1:58:59 Speaker 03 I played freshman year in high school.
1:59:00 Bill Simmons? What is this? I mean, if we're like playing NFL.
1:59:05 Bill Simmons? Is it this complicated when you get a new coordinator?
1:59:09 Bill Simmons? Is it like, is it like Drake May had a new offensive coordinator from last year to this year and it was okay like, should it be this every time they always blame this when the offense doesn't look good. It's like, well, you know, Hertz and it's a new guy. It's like, how fucking hard is this?
1:59:22 Speaker 03 That's also a BS complaint.
1:59:23 Speaker 02 I think we do a lot of like, if you're like do ball knowers side of football media and you're watching like a lot of like all 22 breakdown stuff. I, I can attest, it really only matters if people can block. And Saquon Barkley has just been running into the back of his offensive line all year and the last three years, whether it was Saquon or Miles Sanders or whoever game well, we were buzzsaw and like dudes were just getting like six yards a carry. And nobody, and so that set up the pass.
1:59:50 Speaker 03 Of course.
1:59:51 Speaker 02 And now we're like, we're just the most like conservative offense because we're not actually getting anything on the ground.
1:59:56 Bill Simmons? So, you know, I'm going to do all my picks on Thursday, hoping to change my luck. I did not have a good season this year, but I still feel like I have a, I don't know, I'm weirdly confident for the playoffs. I think this was the one team, San Francisco could have played in round one that they actually could probably beat.
2:00:12 Speaker 03 Oh, Philly.
2:00:13 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
2:00:13 Speaker 03 Oh, I think this is a tough matchup for, for.
2:00:15 Bill Simmons? Well, every matchup's a tough matchup for them. Their defense sucks. But I was thinking about it from their side, like my defense sucks. I'd want to play Philadelphia. Because they're going to be so slow and conservative. Anyway, that's actually like pretty good for my defense. And they're going to be able to score on them offensively. I think maybe. But I don't know. I didn't like any other matchup for them.
2:00:34 Speaker 03 No, I mean, the NFC is really good, but flying to Philly, cold weather outdoors, Brock Purdy's beat up, Trent Williams is beat up with the Eagles defense. I think it's kind of a tough draw.
2:00:43 Bill Simmons? Is Brock Purdy beat up because he has that cut in his hand?
2:00:46 Speaker 03 He, he hurt himself on the last play of the game. I think he's gonna play, he's okay.
2:00:50 Bill Simmons? I don't know. There's some major, nobody believes in us going on with the Niners.
2:00:52 Speaker 02 I think the Niners probably think that the Eagles stole a Super Bowl appearance from them a couple of years ago.
2:00:57 Bill Simmons? Yeah, make that case. I think this is important.
2:00:59 Speaker 02 I know that, I know Niners fans who were like, you guys decimating, taking out Brock and then I can't, was it Trey Lance? Was his backup? I can't remember who the backup was.
2:01:08 Speaker 03 Josh Johnson.
2:01:09 Speaker 02 No, it wound up being Josh Johnson. They were, we may have been playing against McCaffrey and Wildcat at the end. Like, I can't even remember.
2:01:14 Speaker 03 It invented, it's why the NFL now, the emergency third quarterback rule was created because of that game, the NFC Championship.
2:01:20 Speaker 02 That's right. So I think the Niners still feel like we stole, the Eagles stole one from them. And I think they are gonna be playing with a big chip on their shoulder. That being said, I think you're right. Like, West Coast to East Coast in Philly, like, our starting defense is fucking-
2:01:34 Bill Simmons? Niners offense is really good though.
2:01:36 Speaker 02 Rocking. Like, our, our defense is really good.
2:01:38 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:01:39 Bill Simmons? It's a suspicious line.
2:01:40 Speaker 02 What is it?
2:01:41 Bill Simmons? It's like Philly by three and a half.
2:01:43 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:01:44 Bill Simmons? And San Francisco sucks on defense. Like, they're legitimately bad. It is interesting though, Seattle only scored, what, 13 on that was the final score of that game?
2:01:52 Speaker 03 No, they, yeah, 13-3, 13-3.
2:01:53 Bill Simmons? Yeah. I don't know. I think they're scary. I'm, I'm always scared of teams in the playoffs that can move the ball. Cause everything slows down, everything gets weird in the playoffs. I'm looking at that one. I just don't like the way Philly looks. I thought it was so weird that they didn't care about the two seed.
2:02:09 Speaker 02 I think it's strange too, but apparently the players were okay with it and I think, I think people would have been losing their shit.
2:02:15 Bill Simmons? It's not their job.
2:02:16 Speaker 02 If, if Devante Smith or AJ or Saquon or Jalen Hurts had gotten hurt in that game, which totally could have happened. Brock Purdy hurting himself in the last fucking play.
2:02:24 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:02:25 Bill Simmons? I don't know. I, if I get the two seed, I get to play Green Bay and then I get the second game at home. And it's just easier for me to make the Super Bowl. And at the very least, like, why can't you play them for an hour? See what's going on in the Chicago game? And it's like, holy shit, Chicago's losing.
2:02:42 Speaker 02 Cause yesterday during the game, the play-by-play guy, who I can't remember who it was, was like advocating for Sirianni to like-
2:02:51 Speaker 02 Bring the starters in in like the third quarter. I was like, that's how football works.
2:02:54 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:02:55 Speaker 02 These guys can't just like come in cold in the third quarter and play against the commanders. Like they'll, they'll get killed.
2:03:02 Speaker 03 I just think Philly is like, they are built for winning a playoff game. Like where they just drag you down to the mud. It's low scoring.
2:03:08 Bill Simmons? I'm gonna lay there by Thursday. Right now I'm, I'm being seduced by the sexy San Francisco angle.
2:03:13 Speaker 02 I was, I was watching it yesterday with a buddy and I was like, if the Eagles beat the Niners this weekend, I'll shut up about Nick Sirianni forever. Cause obviously it's not pleasant. It's not fun, but whatever he's doing is how you win football games.
2:03:26 Bill Simmons? It is weird when you have a, just a really frustrating team. Like that 2023 Celtics were like this for me, the last Marcus Smart season where they almost made the finals. But I just hated watching them all year. Whereas this year I love, I love the Celtics. I feel like there's a really fun Eagles team in there. Like a team I would want to watch where it's, if you're gonna pay $60 million for two receivers and then it's like you begrudgingly using them. What's the point of that?
2:03:52 Speaker 02 I just think that line, the offensive line is just in a transition moment and you know, it's post Kelsey. Lane Johnson's been hurt. Leonard Dickerson has been on and off hurt. And I just think that they, they can't block and because they can't block, nothing works. So.
2:04:06 Speaker 03 I think that's right.
2:04:07 Speaker 02 It's almost, it's almost impressive that our record is as good as it is.
2:04:10 Bill Simmons? Craig was a virgin the last time the Steelers had a really good playoff moment.
2:04:15 Speaker 02 What year was that? 2016?
2:04:16 Speaker 03 Freshman football? No, I was good then.
2:04:17 Bill Simmons? 2016?
2:04:19 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:04:19 Bill Simmons? Is that, did they win a playoff game there?
2:04:21 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:04:21 Bill Simmons? Oh, I guess. I was, I was going back to 2008, James Harrison.
2:04:25 Speaker 03 I was a virgin in 2008. That's right.
2:04:28 Speaker 03 Right?
2:04:29 Bill Simmons? It is.
2:04:29 Speaker 03 You didn't look at a girl and like, it's the financial, it's the housing crisis. Let's go.
2:04:33 Speaker 02 I was 14.
2:04:33 Bill Simmons? Yeah. 16, you lost to us?
2:04:37 Speaker 03 God, I can't even remember.
2:04:38 Bill Simmons? I think we waxed you. That was the last time.
2:04:41 Speaker 03 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
2:04:42 Bill Simmons? Yeah, it's weird. The Steelers haven't really felt like they had a chance to win a Super Bowl.
2:04:47 Speaker 03 Was that the bullshit Heath Miller game? When he caught that pass and they touched on?
2:04:51 Bill Simmons? That was regular season.
2:04:52 Speaker 03 Oh. Yeah.
2:04:54 Bill Simmons? But you keep Tomlin.
2:04:56 Speaker 03 Yeah, Tomlin will come back.
2:04:57 Bill Simmons? Were you excited about that or no?
2:04:58 Speaker 03 I am now.
2:05:00 Speaker 02 Do you think it's Tomlin and Arthur Smith come back and they'll have some continuity?
2:05:03 Speaker 03 Yeah, I think they need to get a new defensive coordinator. I think they have the most basic, boring, predictable defense in the league. I'm like, Raheem Morris getting fired. Raheem Morris and Tomlin are buddies. They were together in Tampa. They did an episode of Flying Coach together. Get Raheem to be the DC in Pittsburgh.
2:05:18 Speaker 02 Cause that's, that's pretty scary.
2:05:19 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:05:20 Bill Simmons? Raheem was like overqualified DC, underqualified head coach.
2:05:23 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:05:23 Bill Simmons? But everybody said as a DC, he was awesome.
2:05:25 Speaker 03 But like, well, the Steelers have the most expensive defense in the league or something. And it's like, not good.
2:05:30 Bill Simmons? That was the craziest thing in this season to me is that Atlanta only went eight, nine, didn't win that division. By far had the most talent.
2:05:36 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:05:37 Bill Simmons? There's no question they were the best team.
2:05:38 Speaker 03 They had one loss to the Jets. And if they didn't do that, they would have won the division.
2:05:42 Speaker 02 Was Cousins available earlier in the season?
2:05:44 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
2:05:45 Speaker 02 You wonder what would have happened.
2:05:47 Bill Simmons? Oh, Mike.
2:05:48 Speaker 02 Oh, Mike.
2:05:50 Speaker 03 I think we overestimated, or we underestimated what another year of recovery from an Achilles tear will do. Kirk looks so much better. Rogers looks so much better. I think, you know.
2:05:59 Speaker 02 Keep that in mind for Jason Tatum's Valentine's Day return.
2:06:02 Speaker 03 That's right.
2:06:03 Bill Simmons? Oh, man. We just need like 15 minutes a game from Tatum.
2:06:07 Speaker 02 15 minutes a game?
2:06:08 Bill Simmons? To add to this juggernaut Celtics team. Yeah. Just needed to take the Baylor Showerman minutes for seven minutes.
2:06:15 Speaker 02 Will he accept that?
2:06:16 Speaker 03 He's just Shaun Livingston.
2:06:17 Bill Simmons? We're just gonna, we're just gonna sneak him in. Just like, just shoot some threes, grab a couple rebounds. Ready to go. Who was your fantasy MVP of the year?
2:06:24 Speaker 03 It's McCaffrey. It's gotta be. For, for what?
2:06:27 Bill Simmons? You agree with my theory that if you pick McCaffrey, you probably won your draft or made the finals?
2:06:31 Speaker 03 Yeah. And just like the, the risk reward of McCaffrey of like, if you were like brave enough to take him in the first round of your draft, and then the, the game one, opening day, I think it was Eagles, Cowboys, that day, there was a, a report that came out that he had a calf injury. And he missed practice.
2:06:46 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
2:06:46 Speaker 03 And everybody lost their shit. And he played every single game and ended up having just as good of a year fantasy wise. I think he's had like the exact same points per game as he did that 2023 season where he was amazing. It's unbelievable that he had bilateral Achilles tendonitis, came back and had the same year as he did in 2023.
2:07:02 Bill Simmons? We should do post football. We should do the, uh, The best fantasy players of the last 35 years on my pod with you and the Dannys.
2:07:12 Speaker 03 35 years might be hard for me to contribute the first half.
2:07:16 Speaker 02 You're from your virginity on.
2:07:18 Bill Simmons? No, but we could do.
2:07:19 Speaker 02 It's a long time.
2:07:19 Bill Simmons? We could just look at the stats. We could print out like whatever the numbers were.
2:07:23 Speaker 03 Okay.
2:07:23 Bill Simmons? Cause I'm telling you, Jerry Rice in the 90s was like the all timer.
2:07:28 Speaker 02 Back to like.
2:07:28 Bill Simmons? There's just, cause the reason I thought of that was because I think McCaffrey is a first ballot fantasy guy now.
2:07:34 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:07:34 Bill Simmons? Like when we think of like that last level, like not only great, but great for like eight, nine years. Like Tomlinson was like that.
2:07:41 Speaker 03 Oh, Tomlinson.
2:07:42 Bill Simmons? Jerry Rice was like that.
2:07:42 Speaker 03 LT was the guy when I was growing up in middle school, I started playing fantasy football. And I remember he would throw for a touchdown, run a touchdown and catch a touchdown every year.
2:07:50 Bill Simmons? No, I'm talking like the OGs, like these guys won leagues for you. Marshall Falk was like that for a couple of years. There was like two amazing Priest Holmes years.
2:07:58 Speaker 03 Yeah, there's a couple of like mini Dion Waiters seasons where it's like guys who were incredible for two years and then disappeared.
2:08:03 Bill Simmons? Yeah, they're usually receivers.
2:08:04 Speaker 03 Chris Johnson on the Titans was unbelievable.
2:08:05 Speaker 02 Peyton Hillis.
2:08:06 Speaker 03 Peyton Hillis was so good.
2:08:08 Bill Simmons? Receivers like David Boston had a crazy year.
2:08:10 Speaker 03 Josh Gordon, all timer.
2:08:12 Bill Simmons? It would be funny to try to figure out the actual first ballot guys, which we could probably figure out pretty easily by the, by the, uh, the numbers. But Rice was like, he was the first one.
2:08:22 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:08:23 Bill Simmons? He was, he was, he would go like first, second, third in some of these drafts. The fantasy thing that we always talk about is this playoff league I'm in. My fantasy league with my guy, the first one I was in with my high school and some college buddies. And we go through 18 weeks, top four teams advance to the playoffs. You get to keep up to six guys. Then we have a draft to finish first place. That guy's first pick. It's not snake. And it goes one, two, three, four, first place guy picks second in round two. And you pick all the guys out of all the teams that didn't make the playoffs. So if somebody had Josh Allen, they didn't make the playoffs. Josh Allen not eligible for the draft.
2:09:02 Speaker 03 Right.
2:09:02 Bill Simmons? We do two quarterbacks and you have an advantage if you're in first place, but the lower you go, you kind of have to take chances and be like, I'm all in on Jacksonville making the playoffs.
2:09:13 Speaker 03 Cause you have to weigh like, how good is the player versus how good is the team?
2:09:15 Bill Simmons? Could I get four Trevor Lawrence games here and then?
2:09:19 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:09:19 Bill Simmons? And it's really good. It's really fun. And we, we think it's better than actual fantasy. Plus it keeps going.
2:09:24 Speaker 03 Who's the top pick? Is it, is it Josh Allen because he's a wild card? So you can get four games out of him? Or I mean, Drake May, I guess, is also playing round one.
2:09:33 Bill Simmons? Drake May is up there because you might get three games out of him. And I think same thing for Josh.
2:09:38 Speaker 03 You get four.
2:09:39 Bill Simmons? The problem with the league this year is that there's no like slam dunk.
2:09:42 Speaker 03 Right.
2:09:43 Bill Simmons? I know this team will be in the.
2:09:44 Speaker 03 That's the thing is, I was just like, who, what fan is like, we're gonna, we could win the Super Bowl?
2:09:48 Bill Simmons? Yeah, like, if you, if you think Seattle's gonna make the Super Bowl, then JSN would be a top four guy.
2:09:54 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:09:54 Bill Simmons? She'd be like, I will get three games out of him, but I don't know if they're gonna make the Super Bowl.
2:09:58 Speaker 03 No, the NFC is so tough. There, there is no prohibitive favorite. I don't know. Maybe Denver fans feel really good, but it's.
2:10:03 Bill Simmons? No, they shouldn't. I don't. I mean, I think Seattle and the Rams have the best odds by far. And then it dips down to the Denver one, but that's why, like, we have four home dogs in round one.
2:10:14 Bill Simmons? I don't think any fan base feels awesome about their team. I think I know somebody from every fan base. The Seattle fans are the funniest because they just don't trust Arnold at all.
2:10:22 Speaker 03 Sure.
2:10:22 Bill Simmons? They have a really good team, really well coached, running game looked better. The San Francisco game was a big win, but they don't. You just can't trust Arnold until you see it.
2:10:31 Speaker 03 Do you trust the Patriots?
2:10:32 Bill Simmons? I don't trust the defense. I trust the offense. I think they'll be able to move the ball and I'm completely trust Drake. Because especially with Will Campbell back, they're gonna be able to like, put drives together.
2:10:43 Speaker 03 Which team would you want to see the least in the AFC Championship?
2:10:47 Bill Simmons? At Denver is complicated from, from a Patriots standpoint, because there's some bad history there in the history of the franchise. But on the flip side, like, we have good history against the Chargers. We have good history against the Jaguars. I think the Jaguars have the highest ceiling of all the AFC teams.
2:11:04 Bill Simmons? Because they've been really good now for two months.
2:11:07 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:11:08 Bill Simmons? Like, if you, everyone says the same thing, was like, well, the Jaguars are playing the best, but, and then you pick another team and it's like. Well, the Jaguars are playing the best. You just said it. Why can't they keep winning?
2:11:18 Speaker 03 They're probably the most balanced in terms of good defense, good offense. They have both.
2:11:21 Bill Simmons? Yeah, and they have explosive plays and they can get third downs.
2:11:24 Speaker 03 Yeah, and I, I don't understand why Trevor Lawrence is not, and Liam Cohen are not in the coach of the year and MVP conversations. Trevor Lawrence has the same stats as Drake May. He won 13 games. He won his division. He won, he's won eight straight.
2:11:36 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
2:11:36 Speaker 03 I don't know why he's not in conversation.
2:11:39 Bill Simmons? I think he's gonna be the third.
2:11:41 Speaker 03 But he's like 600 to one or something compared to Stafford and May, which is a coin.
2:11:45 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I think it was too late when he got going.
2:11:47 Speaker 03 Yeah, I don't know.
2:11:48 Bill Simmons? I uh, I'm already on the record as saying I was out and that he was never going to be good at football. So it's a tough one for me because I have to unwind that one. Um, he's been really good. I, I, I don't know if it was the KC game that flipped it, that Monday night game, but I actually have real confidence in him, which would be hilarious if I then picked them in a bunch of playoff games and then he just fucks me.
2:12:10 Speaker 02 Do you care at all about uh, Lamar and Mahomes and maybe some of like the bigger teams not getting to the, to the playoffs? Like, do you think, cause like the NBA, it's like they're all everybody's-
2:12:21 Bill Simmons? No, because we've replaced those guys.
2:12:23 Speaker 02 Yeah.
2:12:23 Bill Simmons? Don't you think? I, I feel like we have new characters.
2:12:26 Speaker 02 I think football transcends at this point, like-
2:12:28 Bill Simmons? But you still need the guys. Cause we had that, the beginning of the 2000s, when we had Warner and Brady show up, but it was basically like Manning and Favre and there wasn't anybody else. We were like, who's, it's like Steve McDaniel, it's just people that weren't even that fun to watch play football. And there was the whole, it was kind of an existential crisis of who were the next guys? We were like putting everything on Peyton Manning. Um, I feel like, I feel like we have so many good young guys now.
2:12:55 Speaker 03 Yeah, totally. We, we, we talked about this on our, our big like year recap on the fantasy show that just like the winner of the year was kind of just like the new guard replacing the old guard of, of Mahomes and Lamar missing the playoffs.
2:13:07 Speaker 02 Burrow missing the playoffs.
2:13:08 Speaker 03 Burrow missing the playoffs, the Bills not winning the division and kind of having a down year for probably what they expected. And then you got all these guys. I mean, the mini winner within that category of the year is all these offensive coordinators who come in and like, in these play callers, like Liam Cohen coming in and fixing Trevor Lawrence, Ben Johnson fixing Caleb Johnson, or Ben Johnson fixing Caleb Williams, McDaniel with Drake May. Uh, there's been so many examples of just like talented quarterbacks who were struggling and these guru play callers come in and now the offense is great. And now we have like double the amount of great quarterbacks in the league.
2:13:38 Bill Simmons? Yeah, even Bo Nix, who I am not even a hundred percent sold on, is fun to watch.
2:13:42 Speaker 02 Mm-hmm.
2:13:42 Bill Simmons? I think we have a lot of fun to watch, guys. But um, I don't know, Lamar and Mahomes to me were the old guard. I mean, Burrow was sort of there, but I feel like he's been hurt every year and we all knew his team was gonna suck.
2:13:54 Speaker 02 His career is the one that I wish, I don't want to take him away from Bengals fans, but I do wish Burrow was in, either had like a better infrastructure around him or was on like a different team and could.
2:14:06 Bill Simmons? I said to Sal on Sunday, he's the closest to an NBA star that we have at the quarterback position.
2:14:11 Speaker 03 He's starting to talk a lot.
2:14:12 Bill Simmons? See, it's weird. He's weird in the press conferences. He seems mad at the team, but he also signed a huge extension with them and pushed them to spend all of their money on him and two receivers.
2:14:23 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:14:24 Speaker 02 And then you watch the receivers. Zach Taylor. He's like, it's not his fault.
2:14:27 Bill Simmons? Right. Didn't try to get him out. And you watch the receivers.
2:14:30 Speaker 02 Don't they like not have a GM?
2:14:32 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:14:33 Speaker 02 It's so funny, like shit like that's what happens.
2:14:34 Bill Simmons? And they don't spend money. But like, I watched that whole, we had, Sal and I had the Bengals in a tease, so we were watching. That was the one we lost yesterday, or Sunday.
2:14:43 Speaker 03 Oh, against the Browns.
2:14:45 Bill Simmons? T. Higgins is just, has guys draped all over him every play. He's, he's become one of, he's never open.
2:14:51 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:14:51 Bill Simmons? And then Chase, they just, because he has no time to throw, they, it's basically like 10 yard routes for him. So it's like, what's the point of having these two receivers if you can't block for them? At least the Eagles can block the two receivers you have, but I don't, I don't understand that blueprint of we need to spend $60 million at this position.
2:15:08 Speaker 03 Right. They listened to Burrow. Burrow advocated for it and he's really throwing his weight around. Like he's LeBron-ing it a little bit where he's kind of like, I want Zach Taylor to stay. I want you to re-sign T. Higgins. I want you to draft these guys. So it's kind of like, and they have tried to draft offensive linemen. They're just not working. They drafted, uh, Armon Membo, like, like fifth or sixth overall. A lot of them just like aren't.
2:15:28 Bill Simmons? No, they drafted, he went to the Jets.
2:15:30 Speaker 03 Oh, Amarius Mims, they drafted, right. And he hasn't really been that great. It's tough. It's really hard to pay. I mean, the Cowboys are about to go through this right now with paying your quarterback 50 million, paying two wide receivers, a ton of money. It's really hard to do that.
2:15:45 Bill Simmons? I think the draft is, maybe I'm getting older and just getting better at trying to figure it out, but like, the Will Campbell thing was so funny as it was happening with the, with the arm length.
2:15:56 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:15:56 Bill Simmons? And just missing all this basic shit, like, and you could tell from the moment they drafted him, he's like. I will now protect Drake May for the rest of my life. And that's right. Like he's Drake May's best friend.
2:16:07 Speaker 02 Yeah.
2:16:08 Bill Simmons? They hang out all the time. He's like, my role in life is to be this man's protector.
2:16:12 Speaker 02 Yeah.
2:16:12 Bill Simmons? It's like, I don't understand how that doesn't come up in the draft process. You're getting this guy who's like, I was built to be a left tackle. Give me the quarterback I have to protect. I will. He's almost like in Game of Thrones.
2:16:23 Speaker 02 A lot of it is situational, right? Like, I mean, I remember all the pods you guys did about Bo Nix or in that quarterback class. And it's just like, if you get Sean Payton.
2:16:31 Speaker 03 If Bo Nix was on the Jets, he'd be probably terrible.
2:16:33 Speaker 02 Yeah.
2:16:33 Speaker 03 And would have been on the bench by now.
2:16:35 Bill Simmons? The problem where it goes really, like the Pennix pick, which was one of the worst picks ever when it happened. And then the only thing you could say, like in favor of it was, well, if he can stay healthy.
2:16:48 Speaker 02 Yeah.
2:16:48 Bill Simmons? And then he gets hurt again. It's like, of course he got hurt. He's had five fucking knee injuries.
2:16:51 Speaker 02 Yeah.
2:16:52 Bill Simmons? And by the way, it wasn't good to begin with. Like really unimpressive when you watched him.
2:16:55 Speaker 03 And is older. I liked him in college a little bit, but like Tyler Shuck is a similar example. He's like 26 years old. He was on Justin Herbert's team at Oregon, which is insane.
2:17:03 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
2:17:04 Speaker 03 And he's had two career ending injuries already and he's 26 years old. And it's like, all right, we'll see what Kellen Moore can turn him into something. He looks all right. But it's kind of similar to the Pennix situation, except they didn't take him in the first round.
2:17:14 Bill Simmons? 40th instead of eight.
2:17:15 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:17:16 Bill Simmons? And they didn't take him in the area at quarterback.
2:17:17 Speaker 02 The funny thing that's happening now, cause I was just reading all of the portal stuff before we started pod, doing rewatchables. Like all those guys are staying. Like the dude who's going to Texas Tech is going to make $5 million. The guy from University of Cincinnati and he's going to go, like, he's basically like gets a rookie quarterback contract to go play for Texas Tech. So I think all the quarterbacks coming out will probably be a little bit older than we're used to soon.
2:17:41 Speaker 03 Definitely. That's going to become a trend. I mean, I think Anthony Richardson was like the end of the era of the quarterback.
2:17:46 Speaker 02 Of like, let's take a 20 year old. Yeah.
2:17:48 Speaker 03 Played like 12 games, but he's a freak.
2:17:49 Speaker 02 Like if you're Dante Moore, like, don't you just, you're, you could stay at Eugene and probably like.
2:17:54 Bill Simmons? Well, that's the thing.
2:17:55 Speaker 03 I mean, they might win a national championship this year. I think they're, they have incredible recruits next year. He'll get paid $5 million bucks and then he doesn't have to risk going to the Raiders or the Jets if he doesn't want to go there.
2:18:05 Bill Simmons? This is where you need almost like a draft committee for athlete advice. You'd be like Dante, here's the history of guys who came out in the NFL draft too early as quarterbacks. Now, here's the history of all the guys who played for the Jets.
2:18:17 Speaker 02 Yeah.
2:18:18 Bill Simmons? Don't do this, man.
2:18:19 Speaker 02 Yeah.
2:18:19 Bill Simmons? Just, just, just trust the process for one more year. You're gonna be out of the league in five years.
2:18:23 Speaker 02 The problem is the Jets are gonna probably, they'll probably be picking close to the top of the first round.
2:18:28 Speaker 03 I know. It's like you can't really.
2:18:29 Speaker 02 In 27. And there will be more quarterbacks coming out, but.
2:18:32 Speaker 03 Yeah. It gets tricky when you try to do that. But I mean, quarterbacks have done that in the past, right?
2:18:36 Bill Simmons? The full circle would be the, the Jets taking somebody else and then spending money on Mac Jones. I feel like Mac Jones playing on the Jets for $28 million a year would be the, the Jets-iest of the Jets outcomes.
2:18:48 Speaker 03 That's, we should rank.
2:18:48 Bill Simmons? Cause you could talk yourself into it.
2:18:50 Speaker 03 We should rank one of the most Jets-iest outcomes that could, I think, the Jet, the Dolphins eating $49 million of Tua's contract and then the Jets signing him, giving him the Russell Wilson that Steelers $1 million a year.
2:19:02 Bill Simmons? Talking about how we're basically getting him for free.
2:19:04 Speaker 03 No, he's $1 million for Tua?
2:19:06 Speaker 02 He'd play three games.
2:19:07 Speaker 03 That's, that's a Jetsy outcome. Or, or they just like pay up for Kyler Murray and convince themselves that that could work.
2:19:13 Bill Simmons? Kyler Murray feels very Jetsy to me, too. The Jets have always been like this. I remember, it's like 30 years ago, Neil O'Donnell was in the Super Bowl against Dallas and threw like the worst pick of all time to lose the game, but just was like, good, but not quite good enough. And then the Jets splurged on him cause he was a winner. And then he gave the press conference where he was like, I'm a winner. We, me and my friends may joke about, we still joke about it. I'm a winner. I was brought here to win games. And he was done in like a year. You just kind of know with some of the, like if it's the Jets, I don't know what type of quarterback would succeed on the Jets, but we've tried all the types at this point. And I don't even like, would Drake May have worked on the Jets? Like, I think he would have, but I don't know.
2:19:56 Speaker 03 I mean, look at Drake May on the Patriots, year one. Didn't work.
2:19:59 Bill Simmons? Like running for his life. I, I mean, I would argue he overachieved.
2:20:02 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:20:03 Bill Simmons? He was literally running for his life the whole time. Do you have an MVP thing? Just out of curiosity? I'll, I'll abstain because I've already talked about it.
2:20:10 Speaker 03 I don't have strong feelings on it. I think they're both deserving. I don't have a problem. I, I know the one knock is like, the last time an MVP won that didn't win their division was like 20 years ago. So I, I think that's fair. I don't know. I think Stafford.
2:20:22 Bill Simmons? She has said three wild cards this century won the MVP.
2:20:25 Speaker 03 I wouldn't be upset if either won the MVP. And if I had to give it to one person, I'd probably give it to Stafford.
2:20:29 Bill Simmons? Yeah, sure you would. Fucking typical media.
2:20:32 Speaker 02 I'll take May just because I had him on fantasy.
2:20:34 Speaker 03 Yeah. Did you see it?
2:20:35 Bill Simmons? You did.
2:20:35 Speaker 03 Tom Brady picked?
2:20:37 Bill Simmons? I did.
2:20:38 Speaker 02 Who did he pick? Like Miles Garrett?
2:20:39 Speaker 03 No, he picked Matt Stafford, of course.
2:20:41 Speaker 02 Okay.
2:20:42 Bill Simmons? That, that felt like, that felt like a very stealth Josh McDaniel thing. Josh has been dining on, I did everything and I don't want Josh to get too much credit here.
2:20:50 Speaker 03 Well, and just like, I don't want there to be a new king of New England.
2:20:53 Speaker 02 Well, but it's like if McDaniel can turn May into an MVP in two years, then like, what does that mean about Brady?
2:21:00 Speaker 03 Exactly.
2:21:01 Bill Simmons? We've already debunked the strength of the schedule thing because the thing came out about all the EPA defenses each guy faced. They're basically the same. Stafford's only playing the defense of the other team. He's not playing offense. So that's already been debunked.
2:21:16 Bill Simmons? Nobody seems to care about May's running and the fact that he can scramble and use his legs.
2:21:21 Speaker 02 Definitely don't care about his running.
2:21:22 Bill Simmons? Stafford's like, basically can't move. He's a fossil.
2:21:25 Speaker 03 Stafford threw 46 touchdowns, eight picks.
2:21:27 Speaker 02 I love how passionate you still get.
2:21:29 Bill Simmons? It's really good.
2:21:29 Speaker 03 Led the league in passing, led the league in touchdowns.
2:21:31 Bill Simmons? I would be passionate if this was an NBA argument with two guys I didn't care about. I think at some point, like, logic is logic. And in all the cases for Stafford, it's like, I can debunk that. I can't debunk your 46 touchdowns, 13 of which came on the one yard line. You're right. I can't, I can't beat that one. But I just think what May did this year has been underrated. But I guess if he loses to the Chargers in round one, then it looks stupid.
2:21:56 Speaker 03 I think they honestly, both, I think they're both deserving. I don't, I don't have super strong thoughts. I do think the Patriots having one of the easiest schedules of the 21st century.
2:22:04 Speaker 03 Yeah. If you can discredit Stafford for having Puka and throwing a bunch of one yard touchdowns, I can also discredit.
2:22:08 Bill Simmons? But when they say easy schedule, like they played San Francisco's terrible defense twice. And San Francisco's a playoff team. So it's like, there's a playoff team he played. I would love playing against the San Francisco defense. We went against the Cleveland defense, which was good, but Cleveland sucked.
2:22:24 Speaker 03 No, I know.
2:22:24 Bill Simmons? Which defense would you rather go against?
2:22:26 Speaker 03 But most of the games, you only need to score 14 points to win because you're going up against the Jets. And you're up by 20 at halftime.
2:22:32 Bill Simmons? Stafford's gonna win. Everybody's already excited.
2:22:34 Speaker 03 What? Regular season award?
2:22:35 Bill Simmons? It's a lifetime achievement award. We're finding out.
2:22:37 Speaker 03 That is, that is honestly kind of what it is.
2:22:39 Bill Simmons? This is Al Pacino in Son of a Woman. It's like, yeah, sorry about Godfather 2, Al.
2:22:44 Speaker 03 Downey Jr. Oppenheimer.
2:22:45 Bill Simmons? Here's your Oscar.
2:22:47 Speaker 03 I don't know. I think it's, I think it's close enough where you can't be outraged either way.
2:22:51 Bill Simmons? I think the nerds are gonna carry Drake May home this week because there's so many EPA, all that shit. It's gonna help.
2:22:57 Speaker 03 But like, how can you make the case definitively for Drake May over Trevor Lawrence?
2:23:01 Bill Simmons? It's a good question. I think because Lawrence wasn't as good in the first six, seven weeks.
2:23:05 Speaker 03 It's actually Trevor Lawrence. People would respect that.
2:23:07 Bill Simmons? Oh, can you imagine if I did that?
2:23:09 Speaker 03 They had like the same amount of yards. Trevor Lawrence had more touchdowns, one less win, also won his division. Also can run. I think he ran for nine touchdowns.
2:23:16 Bill Simmons? You're leaving out stuff where like the Pats had the number one offense in EPA. May led the league in completion percentage and yards per attempt. I'm just saying like.
2:23:24 Speaker 03 But you did do this to Sal.
2:23:25 Bill Simmons? There's this better, I did some of it. Sal's just, he's already pigeonholed by his Drake maybe stuff from the beginning of the year. So he's just, now he's just reading against Drake May. What do you feel about the Chargers in New England?
2:23:37 Speaker 03 I think that, I can't believe the Chargers won 11 games. They're, they're the team.
2:23:40 Bill Simmons? So that's where I am and a lot of people are like Chargers, underdog. I actually feel like this was a pretty good matchup for us.
2:23:46 Speaker 03 Oh, yeah.
2:23:47 Bill Simmons? But if you can't beat the Chargers, this whole season was a lie.
2:23:50 Speaker 03 Yeah, yeah.
2:23:50 Bill Simmons? Chargers. Like, and you should feel the same way about your team. If you can't beat the Niners with that defense, like, what a fucking joke.
2:23:58 Speaker 03 Yeah, but like.
2:23:59 Bill Simmons? All the offense and all the money you've spent on your offense, you can't beat the Niners defense?
2:24:02 Speaker 03 I still feel like, this is my whole thing is like the Eagles are just, this is still like a skip day. You know what I mean? It's like, see the day.
2:24:09 Bill Simmons? That's a good way to think.
2:24:11 Speaker 03 I'd like us to win at least a playoff game.
2:24:13 Bill Simmons? It's right, because going back to back in the NFL doesn't really mean anything. It's no history at all involved. Only like five teams have done it.
2:24:22 Bill Simmons? Shouldn't want that.
2:24:24 Bill Simmons? You won yours already.
2:24:25 Speaker 03 I'm just saying that given the evidence of what I've seen, it's not.
2:24:27 Bill Simmons? Did you like my theory that the, the Eagles didn't care about the two or the three seed because they want, they don't want to play any playoff home games because their fans hate them?
2:24:36 Speaker 03 Um, I don't think that that's true, but I do think that they play freer on the road.
2:24:42 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
2:24:43 Speaker 03 And I don't think they get booed at halftime if they've only scored 13 points or something.
2:24:48 Bill Simmons? So how would you grade the, uh, regular season for 2015, 2025?
2:24:52 Speaker 03 Across the board?
2:24:52 Bill Simmons? Yeah, just across the entertainment value this season.
2:24:55 Speaker 03 Yeah, I thought it was one of the better seasons in a while. The unpredictability of, I think Mahomes and Lamar dropping out with all of these new quarterbacks, like the fact that Caleb works, Trevor Lawrence works, Drake May worked.
2:25:04 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
2:25:04 Speaker 03 I think it's, I think this is the most excited I've been for the playoffs in a long time.
2:25:07 Bill Simmons? I think it was an A plus regular season. So many twists and turns.
2:25:11 Speaker 03 It's as wide, I mean, I think the, the Chiefs downfall. It just created like this vacuum of like, you could give me six different teams. I'd be like, I believe it.
2:25:20 Bill Simmons? A lot. There was like 10 really memorable games too. Like that Casey Jacksonville Monday game was fucking crazy. The opening Baltimore Buffalo game.
2:25:29 Speaker 03 The Bears game.
2:25:31 Bill Simmons? That Niners, Seahawks, not Niners Seahawks.
2:25:34 Speaker 03 Rams Seahawks.
2:25:35 Bill Simmons? Rams Seahawks.
2:25:35 Speaker 03 It was crazy. The Packers Bears game from a couple of weeks ago was nuts.
2:25:38 Bill Simmons? The Bills were in that one Bills Pats game was really good. There's really good games.
2:25:42 Speaker 03 And I kind of don't mind, like you could give me any Super Bowl matchup and I'd be like, that's cool. You could pick any two teams. I'm like, that's exciting. That's different. It used to be, I remember last year, everybody was like, please just don't do Chiefs Eagles. And it's always like, please just don't have to be the Chiefs again. Now I'm kind of like, whichever team makes it, I'm kind of excited for.
2:25:59 Bill Simmons? Yeah. I actually was looking this morning at the odds of a Jacksonville, Seattle, Super Bowl.
2:26:05 Speaker 03 That would be amazing.
2:26:05 Bill Simmons? And they weren't nearly as high as I thought. It was like 17 to one. I'm like, how is this not like 80 to one? This is a crazy Super Bowl. Imagine?
2:26:13 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:26:14 Bill Simmons? The Jaguars, the Seahawks.
2:26:16 Speaker 03 It's nice though that like with that kind of thing, if the Jags and the Seahawks played in the Super Bowl, like still everybody would watch it. It's not like.
2:26:23 Bill Simmons? It's super cool. Yeah.
2:26:25 Speaker 03 It's not like the small market thing in the NBA where if it's like the Bucks and the Suns, nobody's going to watch. It doesn't matter who's in the Super Bowl, people are going to watch.
2:26:32 Bill Simmons? The funny thing is the Jags are doing all of this after trading all this stuff for Travis Hunter, who stopped playing for them like two months ago.
2:26:39 Speaker 03 I know. That's such a terrible trade in retrospect already.
2:26:41 Bill Simmons? And his career ended when Danny and Craig said he was basically Wondell Robinson with better PR. And meanwhile, Wondell Robinson, didn't he get like a thousand yards? He was like insulting to Wondell Robinson.
2:26:56 Speaker 03 Wondell Robinson almost did like the Miles Garrett, stop the game because he got his thousand yards.
2:27:02 Bill Simmons? I love when Zach Taylor got mad about that.
2:27:04 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:27:04 Bill Simmons? It's like, what the fuck? We're stopping the game. We're fighting for our lives out here.
2:27:08 Speaker 03 We were trying to run tempo. Yeah. Nobody told me about this. Settle down. Travis Hunter might not like start at wide receiver next year. They have three good wide receivers.
2:27:16 Bill Simmons? They should just play him at D back though. That's which is what they should have done anyway. Just made him a shutdown cornerback who can come out for some third and tens.
2:27:24 Speaker 03 I mean, this is this entire playoff playoffs is like the nobody believes in us playoffs. Like every team, it's like the Bears, you believe in the Bears? We haven't seen it from Drake May and the Patriots in the playoffs, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags. It's like Sam Darnold. Who do I believe in?
2:27:37 Bill Simmons? I was trying to think who the number one,
2:27:39 Speaker 03 Bo Nix?
2:27:40 Bill Simmons? The number one, nobody believes in us team. And the Jaguars, who already were touting that for the last like six weeks.
2:27:47 Speaker 03 Right.
2:27:48 Bill Simmons? And then to be home underdogs against Buffalo, a team that they've played better than for the last three months. I think they're probably number one.
2:27:54 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:27:55 Bill Simmons? I think the Bears are in there too, though.
2:27:57 Speaker 03 I do like.
2:27:57 Bill Simmons? Being underdogs against the Packers who are banged up is a good one. And then the Panthers, obviously getting 10 and 8.
2:28:03 Speaker 03 Oh, yeah.
2:28:03 Bill Simmons? I don't know if the players understand math and like how, how fucking embarrassing 10 and a half is, but that is like such a slap in the face. That's one of the biggest spreads we've ever had.
2:28:13 Speaker 03 The Rams, who they beat the Rams like a month ago.
2:28:16 Bill Simmons? And by the way, you can throw the ball on the Rams.
2:28:19 Speaker 03 The Rams are gonna win.
2:28:20 Bill Simmons? Brissette was over and over again, just beating them.
2:28:22 Speaker 03 Yeah.
2:28:23 Bill Simmons? Wasn't like the Rams didn't need the game yesterday.
2:28:26 Speaker 03 I think Devante's gonna be back, which will be big.
2:28:28 Bill Simmons? So one thing.
2:28:29 Speaker 03 Stafford can throw some more one yard touchdowns.
2:28:31 Bill Simmons? You think you can get, grab him in there? The one thing I think got overrated was the Houston defense, which I think peaked about four weeks ago. And I'm not sure it's exactly the same defense. It seems to be giving up like long balls now that they weren't before. So going back to.
2:28:48 Speaker 03 Did they lose a DB or something like that?
2:28:50 Bill Simmons? No, they just. They were really sloppy. They gave up two long plays to the Chargers. They were getting beat yesterday. And it's like, that could be a DK Metcalf spot for you.
2:28:59 Speaker 03 Yeah, it's gonna be an ugly game. I do think Rogers looked really good last night because the Ravens had no pass rush.
2:29:05 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
2:29:05 Speaker 03 So I am a little worried about like Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter.
2:29:08 Speaker 02 Hitting him in like the third series and him just being like, I'm rattled.
2:29:11 Bill Simmons? Yeah, there's a world where the, you just get overrun.
2:29:15 Speaker 03 Yeah, that's always the case though with the Steelers. It's either win by two, lose by 20.
2:29:20 Bill Simmons? Unbelievable. Plus we have Sixers Celtics in May for the Eastern Conference Finals.
2:29:25 Speaker 02 I can't wait for that. How are you feeling about the Embiid de Sance?
2:29:28 Bill Simmons? Have we ever had a situation where the Sixers and Celtics fans both loved their team at the same time?
2:29:33 Speaker 02 I can't believe how this is.
2:29:34 Bill Simmons? 2018 was the last time, maybe?
2:29:35 Speaker 02 I feel such deep connection to this Sixers team now.
2:29:38 Bill Simmons? Like the fucking BJ, it's like, forget Dwyane Wade, let's talk MJ.
2:29:44 Speaker 02 The Grizzlies game that was like a couple of nights before Christmas.
2:29:49 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
2:29:50 Speaker 02 Or after Christmas. It was like unreal, like in the Philly.
2:29:53 Bill Simmons? The one on Peacock. I watched that game. He's, I mean, you have two of the most fun players in the league. My team has this Jalen Brown renaissance and Tatum coming back and really fun to watch. Pretty crazy. I would not have predicted that we were the, be the two most fun teams in the East.
2:30:07 Speaker 02 I know. It's the Cavs made way for us.
2:30:10 Bill Simmons? Our guy Daryl sticking around now?
2:30:11 Speaker 02 Seems like it.
2:30:12 Bill Simmons? Yeah. Your team's dead.
2:30:15 Speaker 02 Sorry.
2:30:16 Bill Simmons? Your team's looking at Anthony Davis and.
2:30:19 Speaker 02 Yeah.
2:30:19 Bill Simmons? Michael Porter Jr.
2:30:20 Speaker 02 I need to get in a room with Joe Lacob, give him a piece of my mind for what he's done to us the last five years. He'd be happy to write you back in an email if you send one.
2:30:29 Bill Simmons? It's tough because I mean, he can.
2:30:31 Speaker 02 Just wasted prime Steph Curry for five years.
2:30:34 Bill Simmons? But he could also say, we won the title on 22. We've won four. We've spent as much money as we could possibly spend. We out-thought a lot of teams.
2:30:42 Speaker 02 It's kind of like, it's, it's, you guys have had a great run. You've had a run that.
2:30:46 Bill Simmons? Yeah, this is how it's supposed to end.
2:30:48 Speaker 02 Watch basketball.
2:30:48 Bill Simmons? It's not though.
2:30:49 Speaker 02 Never experienced.
2:30:50 Bill Simmons? We, we've been sticking to Jonathan Kaminga, Pajemski and a bunch of scrubs, literally for four straight years.
2:30:57 Speaker 02 Yeah. Just waiting for the right trade to come along.
2:31:00 Bill Simmons? Yeah. The Kaminga thing, that was just amazing. This.
2:31:04 Speaker 02 I would love to have Anthony Davis. I don't care.
2:31:07 Bill Simmons? Kaminga this weekend when he was getting yanked around by Kerr and then they're like, we need you. It's like, my back hurts about. It was like, we've now reached the fuck you area of that relationship.
2:31:15 Speaker 02 Yeah.
2:31:15 Bill Simmons? Yeah, it's time.
2:31:16 Speaker 02 It's like a week. Do you think, do you think the Warriors are going to get anybody?
2:31:21 Bill Simmons? I mean, what's interesting is I thought it was going to be Porter Jr. For a little while there, which I think would have really helped them. But now he's probably played himself up into like a two first round picks type of.
2:31:32 Speaker 02 Michael Porter.
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2:32:46 Speaker 03 Junior?
2:32:46 Bill Simmons? Yeah. He's been going toe-to-toe.
2:32:49 Speaker 03 But like you do know what you're getting, right? Like we just watched.
2:32:52 Bill Simmons? Or you're getting somebody who's blossoming and maybe on Denver couldn't use all the pieces of them, you know?
2:32:58 Speaker 03 It's just Steph's gonna be.
2:32:59 Bill Simmons? It's dangerous is my point.
2:33:00 Speaker 03 Steph's gonna be 38 in March and he's averaging 29 a game. And we're just, he's just been doing that. He looks the same. He looks the same as he did five years ago.
2:33:08 Bill Simmons? LeBron for Butler is just a trade that makes the league more fun. That is just a hilarious trade.
2:33:13 Speaker 03 I'd rather jump off the Golden Gate Bridge. LeBron James on the Warriors.
2:33:18 Bill Simmons? They have to figure out the Draymond thing, too.
2:33:20 Speaker 03 I've been enjoying watching JJ's press conferences more than actual Lakers games.
2:33:24 Bill Simmons? Yeah, me too.
2:33:24 Speaker 03 Where JJ's like media availability after practice, where he's just like, guess everybody just had a great holiday. I didn't, you know, like.
2:33:31 Bill Simmons? He's like, I don't know, we weren't even running plays out there. I gotta work on that. We're calling the plays, they're not running them. Pretty funny. I, we need like a. I was thinking like if The Ringer worked like some of these NBA teams, how interesting that would be where if like, I don't know, Sean was like Draymond Green and he's just taping the big picture. Punching you in the face. He just storms out of a big picture taping an hour in. It's like, we only have another hour, one hour of the big picture because Sean couldn't make it through another taping. Like, it's literally Draymond's job to stay in the court for the entire game. You have one job. All right, good luck with the Steelers. Good luck with the Eagles. I wish myself luck with the Patriots. I wish you luck as well, Bill. I hope we're all surviving for at least a couple of rounds. Thanks for popping on. All right, that's it for the podcast.
2:34:16 Bill Simmons? Thanks to Goldsberry, thanks to CR and Craig, thanks to Gahow and Eduardo. Don't forget, live Bill Simmons podcast, Wednesday, February 11th, theringer.com/events. Yeah, we're gonna do this. I have no idea who's gonna be on it, but it'll be entertaining. And I have a new podcast coming on Thursday as well. We'll be breaking down all the football stuff, try to change my, uh, my picking luck, see if we can throw a couple wrinkles in. I will see you on Thursday.
2:34:59 Bill Simmons? Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 888-797777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here, visit gamblinghelplineMA.org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts, or call 877-8HOPENY, or text HOPENY in New York.
Previous The Voodoo Steelers, NFC South Comedy, an Eagles Theory, Guess the Lines Round 1, and Jaylen’s Crazy Year With Cousin Sal Next A Hawks Power Play, Plus a Round 1 Playoff Mega-Preview With Joe House and Billy Gil Page updated October 31, 2026 · transcript and summary are machine-generated