Pod Insights The Bill Simmons Podcast A Crazy 49ers Win, Baltimore’s Alive, Week 18 Stakes, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal About this episode The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal right after the 49ers take down the Bears on Sunday night to recap Week 17 of the NFL season (2:35). Then, they guess the lines for Week 18 before ending with Parent Corner (01:03:09).
Host: Bill Simmons
Guest: Cousin Sal
Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo
Learn more at https://linkedin.com/simmonsbill
This episode is sponsored by State Farm®. Don’t settle for just any insurance when there’s State Farm.
The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript 22,419 words · 2 speakers
Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
0:00 Bill Simmons? This episode is brought to by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat, or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what. You're gonna want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn, or spooky season. Whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs, or the weather's fault, you're gonna want WeatherTech for American-made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather. Visit weatherTech.com today.
0:29 Bill Simmons? The Bill Simmons Podcast, brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network, where I have a new rewatchables coming for you on Monday night. It is a special episode. You're probably not gonna expect what it is. Parts of it will probably confuse you. Might make you mad. You're not gonna know where it's going. That's all I'm gonna say. But it's coming on Monday night. And if you like the podcast, and if you've listened to at least a few episodes over the year, I'm pretty confident you'll enjoy this episode. So that is coming on the rewatchables on Monday. And then we're moving into our big 2026 slate, which I was actually, one of the things I was planning out
1:10 Bill Simmons? over the little mini break there, trying to figure out the schedule for the first few months. So stay tuned on that one. Coming up on this podcast, Cousin Sal is here as always. We taped, recorded. I always say taped like it's 1990. We recorded like it was, like we usually do right after the game, except we had to wait a couple of minutes because they were trying to release where the playoff matchups were. So we have that at the top. We have all the playoff seedings, all the implications for Week 18, all of our reactions to a crazy week of football. Week 17, which went Thursday, Saturday, Sunday? Yeah, and now Monday. So the NFL, they just, they know how to do it with us.
1:54 Bill Simmons? We have a big, action-packed parent corner here as well. So it's all coming up next. We're gonna take a break. Pearl Jam, then Cousin Sal and I breaking down Week 17. Looking forward to Week 18 next. This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting a linebacker on the football field, but getting a line cook. Sure, they both can handle the pressure when it starts heating up, but only one is stopping a touchdown. You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team. So don't settle for just any insurance when it comes to getting help you need. State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.
2:59 Bill Simmons? All right, we're live Sunday night. Just watched an absolutely awesome Bears 49ers game. Cousin Sal is here. We were a little late today because there were so many week 18 implications. Sal didn't even know where we were going to be on Saturday. They gave us two awesome games for ESPN. Holy shit, like two real high stakes games. Were you surprised we got Carolina, Tampa for the NFC South? And then Seattle and the Rams for the one seed and the NFC West crown. That's Saturday and Saturday night. Now we have to tell our families. What are we going to do?
3:31 Speaker 01 I'm not telling mine. I'm just going to have to fake it. I'll go to the hospital. I'll do something. Yeah, I thought Seattle, I thought that Seattle game would go to Fox and Carolina would be Saturday night. But ESPN gets both. I just, I can launch into a Collinsworth, but football's the F-ing best. Isn't it the best?
3:49 Bill Simmons? Today was great.
3:49 Speaker 01 Come on. Not today was great. Football is the best.
3:54 Bill Simmons? Are you defending it after football got its ass kicked on Christmas?
3:57 Speaker 01 I don't think it did.
3:57 Bill Simmons? Got sent right down the chimney. The NBA hoes were ecstatic on Sunday night or Thursday night.
4:03 Speaker 01 The Knicks game was close. They were down by 60 most of it.
4:06 Bill Simmons? Denver, Minnesota was amazing.
4:07 Speaker 01 Nobody was awake for that.
4:08 Bill Simmons? Got to watch LeBron jog around on defense. It was great.
4:12 Speaker 01 This is a bad, bad start.
4:14 Bill Simmons? All right. I'm going to try to stick to my script and we'll incorporate some of this other stuff. Here are the things that are still in play with one week to go in this bizarre NFL season. We might have an eight and nine division champion. I think that's locked down, right? Carolina or Tampa, or I guess if Tampa wins, they'd be an eight and nine division champ.
4:32 Speaker 01 Yeah, right.
4:34 Bill Simmons? Bo Nix.
4:34 Speaker 01 Yeah, Carolina is nine and eight if they win.
4:36 Bill Simmons? Yep. Bo Nix and Sam Darnold could be our number one seed quarterbacks.
4:41 Speaker 01 Incredible.
4:41 Bill Simmons? Drake May and Caleb and Caleb Williams could be our number two seed quarterbacks after Jaden Daniels last year made the NFC title game. We could have three new coaches as top three seeds. We could have Josh Allen in the situation of having to win four games in a row on the road to win a Super Bowl.
5:00 Bill Simmons? We could have a scenario where Mac Jones beats the Patriots in the Super Bowl. If Brock Purdy got hurt and the Niners and Pats play.
5:05 Speaker 01 Oh, wow. Okay.
5:08 Bill Simmons? We have Aaron Rodgers, who I think was four yards a pass and it just looked helpless today against Houston's defense, which just if you don't like Aaron Rodgers, this is the playoff game for you potentially. Week 18, six wins total right now for New York football, which I think is the lowest ever, and then both of them are going to lose next week. We could have Bryce Young hosting a Shaky's game in round one. And then most important, I think for this exercise, we could have San Francisco never leaving the Bay Area and playing in the Super Bowl, which I'm pretty sure has never happened, right?
5:45 Speaker 01 Oh, never leaving? Yeah, a couple of teams have won Super Bowl in their own stadium, right? The Rams did it a few years ago.
5:52 Bill Simmons? Right, but never.
5:52 Speaker 01 No, no, not all the way through.
5:54 Bill Simmons? Actually, just like, like Torrico said at one point, they don't even have to use their suitcases. And it's like, oh yeah, they really don't.
6:00 Speaker 01 Right.
6:00 Bill Simmons? They could just run it through.
6:02 Speaker 01 Probably Media Day is probably like an hour and 20 minutes away. That might be the furthest they have to travel.
6:07 Bill Simmons? True. The Super Bowl being in St. Clair, there is actually more traveling for them than maybe people would think, but the Niners, that was an awesome win for them. I don't know how they're doing it with this defense. Collinsworth said the word pass rush, I think, five times today.
6:20 Speaker 01 Forget it.
6:20 Bill Simmons? They know pass rush. It didn't feel like they could ever get a stop, and then they finally got a stop at the end and stopped Caleb Williams.
6:27 Speaker 01 He was laughing so much, Collinsworth. I loved it. Whenever there's points, he laughs. I'm just laughing. Anytime there's a touchdown, I'm slapping my knee like a maniac and, you know, Bill, even a field goal gets a chuckle, but that play with, to Husek, I was losing it like a hyena at a Dave Chappelle one man show. I really.
6:48 Bill Simmons? Do you buy Halloween stuff for the front of your house that activates when people show up? Cause I was thinking, I was thinking the Collinsworth tackling thing where you get near the door and he just starts laughing like he does 10 seconds after a play when Tirico sets him up.
7:03 Speaker 01 Right.
7:04 Bill Simmons? Caleb Williams, my God. I would buy that. Anyway, we had Purdy versus Caleb in the Sunday shootout. We had the Bears in yet another down to the wire comeback. This time it fell short, but are they the, are they the TV MVPs this year, the Bears?
7:22 Speaker 01 Ooh.
7:23 Bill Simmons? Were they the most reliable, entertaining NFL team we had this year? I feel like they were.
7:27 Speaker 01 I think so. I would have said maybe my stupid team or the Bengals. I talk about them maybe playing on Super Bowl Sunday in the morning, each other.
7:36 Bill Simmons? The Bears had, what, eight games come down to the wire or seven or?
7:39 Speaker 01 They're also good. Yeah, they're also very good. Yeah, they don't really take off.
7:43 Bill Simmons? Caleb is a roller coaster ride, but he's really fun to watch. He can scramble and buy himself 11 seconds and then miss a wide open guy on the same play. Or he could uncork that 50 yarder like he did today where it's just like it was a wrist flick and it's a boom. Or that, that rifle he threw to Loveland. I mean, he probably has, I think Drake May has a great arm. Caleb seems like he even has like 2% like more frozen ropey than, than Drake.
8:09 Speaker 01 Rocket for sure.
8:10 Bill Simmons? Yeah, those are the rockets right now.
8:12 Speaker 01 And he could take off, right? He knows all the angles. He's Mahomes-esque with the angles and getting the first down just by a foot and all that stuff. And he's cutting down on mistakes. Not that he had a lot. I think that out of anyone's first thousand passes, he had the fewest interceptions out of anybody in football. So that was.
8:30 Bill Simmons? Until Drake May can get to a thousand passes.
8:32 Speaker 01 That's right. Until he gets to a thousand.
8:34 Bill Simmons? Drake will take that record.
8:35 Speaker 01 And the Niners are just as good, man. They match him, Purdy buzzing around the field, throws that pick six and he was as cool as if he was up 17 points in the fourth. Like really just, and with Trent Williams going out. Like they kind of seem bulletproof. Like that might be like the toughest test they have, like something like that coming down to the wire.
8:53 Bill Simmons? Yeah, it feels like whenever they want, they can go 75 yards.
8:57 Speaker 01 Yeah.
8:58 Bill Simmons? I had a, I had a lot of Niner stuff tonight. I had them tied to a bunch of different things betting wise and they threw that pick six to start the game, basically. And normally that is like throwing the black cat under the TV or walking under a ladder. You're just like, oh, here we go. I'm done. Cross this up. But I never felt that way with them because it's so easy for them to get first down. So what's weird is you look up, like I was looking at their stats in the fourth quarter and you just look at their receivers. And it's, it's not like they have awesome receivers, you know? It's just random dudes and dudes that got patched together and tight ends and backup tight ends and McCaffrey. And yet somehow Purdy's thrown for 300 yards and he's cringing stuff with his legs. Today he was 303, three TDs, ran the ball twice for touchdowns, got like a prolonged Collinsworth cackle
9:44 Bill Simmons? on that little playground play that he had, but he was great. And I don't know who he's throwing to. They, they given all this money to Ayuk. He's gone. Jennings, I forgot was even on the team and then made the biggest play of the game in the fourth quarter. But it's, it's a very strange team and it just seems like they moved the ball.
9:59 Speaker 01 Yeah. And it doesn't seem like, I don't want to jinx them, but I guess McCaffrey would be worth one, just looking through a gambling lens to the spread. But otherwise, you know, Kittle goes out, they could have scored 50 points today, just like you said.
10:12 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I forgot to mention him. You did Kittle's almost like a bonus for them.
10:16 Speaker 01 Yeah.
10:16 Bill Simmons? When he plays.
10:17 Speaker 01 I don't know if the defense is making enough stops. That's, that's the only thing we could, we could talk about, but um, yeah.
10:23 Bill Simmons? I mean, I was on multiple Patriot threads today, wondering whether we should be upset that Kean wait, who the Patriots gave away during the season? Who plays every snap for the Niners, it seems like. And it's like, well, why do we give that guy away if he's playing all the time for the Niners? And then it's like, well, they're, they just gave up 38 points. We never saw the Bears punt it. Maybe, maybe that's why they gave him up. It's a pretty, you think like Warner's out, Bosa's out, they lost the first round pick. They had D backs hurt today. They had backups to the backups that were in there. It was pretty crazy that they were even in it.
10:53 Speaker 01 Don't get us wrong. We're still cursing Robert Sala on various text chains, but um, it probably really isn't his fault. But they, both of those teams, very, very entertaining.
11:02 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I don't really understand how they're hanging around like this. Caleb is now over 3,700 yards. He's got 25 TDs and six picks this season, which are stats that-
11:14 Speaker 01 First name basis with him, which is even more important than all that stuff.
11:17 Bill Simmons? Well, the other thing I noticed today about three hours ago, he was number three in the FanDuel MVP odds.
11:24 Speaker 01 Oh, really?
11:24 Bill Simmons? I don't think it's the case anymore. Yeah, I think it probably dropped now. He was third.
11:29 Speaker 01 Oh, yeah.
11:29 Bill Simmons? It was basically a two horse race. And then there was, because Josh Allen, and we'll talk about him later. But Josh Allen's campaign was torpedoed.
11:39 Bill Simmons? But so you have him and then you have Luther Burden as this play. Monkey mentioned Collinsworth is like, I've been watching this guy. He was kind of making it seem like I knew this was going to happen with him. And it's like, this guy's available in every fantasy league right now in the finals. Like, what are you doing? He's 400 yards this year, but he looked awesome today.
11:56 Speaker 01 I roomed with him at Missouri and it was a little weird because I'm 40 years older. But, you know, whatever, we got used to it.
12:03 Bill Simmons? Yeah. I watched it meet eggs, Mike, and it was just great.
12:08 Bill Simmons? McCaffrey, I think we talked about this every year in Week 17. Who won everybody's fantasy league? Who was the guy? And I think it was McCaffrey. They handed that, that award in the NFL honors or whatever it's called. It's like, guy who won everyone their fantasy league. It's McCaffrey. Like, our league, our friend Kohers, the mooc, he's about to win the league. And, and it was basically McCaffrey. He rode, McCaffrey got hot at the perfect time, crested in the fantasy playoffs and was not priced as like a $60 guy. What was he like?
12:41 Speaker 01 45 bucks, I think.
12:42 Bill Simmons? Yeah, 45. He was like 25% off and he ended up doing it again. This is one of the great fantasy guys we've ever had.
12:49 Speaker 01 Right? When he took him, like, yeah, you could, you could have McCaffrey. Yeah, he'll get hurt Week 3, whatever. Well, check it out, but yeah.
12:56 Bill Simmons? We, we've been playing fantasy since early 90s. What was your first year?
13:01 Speaker 01 92, I think, yeah.
13:02 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I was, I think I was 90 or 91. McCaffrey is now a first ballot fantasy Hall of Famer, I think.
13:07 Speaker 01 Oh, yeah.
13:08 Bill Simmons? I don't know if he's past Tomlinson. I still feel like Tomlinson, that six year run Tomlinson had is just unapproachable. But McCaffrey, I think, is right with Marshall Falk and a couple others, like just generational, great fantasy running backs, not to mention somebody who could potentially be on the one seed. And somebody who I could identify with because it looked like he was dying from a bad back as the game was going on. I thought he was gonna be using like the norm attack or something to like the giant back brace vibrator thing to help him out.
13:39 Speaker 01 The four yard screen over the middle where he just gets pounded instantly or before in most cases, I could see him saying to Purdy like, hey, can you cut me some slack? Can you throw us a who's check there? I don't, I don't need every one of these. Yeah.
13:52 Bill Simmons? Yeah, can you not throw me the, the four yarder when you can see the linebacker running full speed about to hit me? Like, can we take that out of the thing?
14:00 Speaker 01 Linebacker is like waving his hands. He's like, okay, I'm ready. Go ahead.
14:03 Bill Simmons? There was also a hook and ladder in this game, which was the second one we saw today in a pivotal time on a drive that worked. And you and I have both been on hook and ladder island for a long time. Like always wondering why teams don't do this more. It always either, oh, it works or at least it gets them a first down. It worked today, but did you think the Bears were gonna win when they got that? When it was there on the four yard line, basically, and they had one play?
14:27 Speaker 01 Yeah.
14:27 Bill Simmons? What did you think was, if you could have live bet it right there, who did you think was gonna win?
14:32 Speaker 01 I think I did. I mean, I didn't bet it, but I would have thought Bears there just because I thought, but I thought like Caleb was gonna find an opening and run in, but on that last play, he was just too scattered and run back too much, but.
14:43 Bill Simmons? He missed a couple. What did he miss for? I mean, I thought he was really good in that game, but he also missed four wide open guys, including, they pointed out that all 22 camera.
14:52 Speaker 01 Yep.
14:52 Bill Simmons? He had, who was the guy? Duvernay?
14:56 Bill Simmons? That he grounded it to. And it actually seemed like it could have been a touchdown. So he'll, he, he should go up a level at some point, but I was, I was thinking if they won that game, it was the first time I was ready to take them seriously as like, could they actually make the Super Bowl?
15:12 Speaker 01 Right.
15:13 Bill Simmons? Like all these stupid wins they have, maybe this is just team of destiny shit. And maybe this is just where we're heading.
15:19 Speaker 01 Yeah, well, we went from, you know, a few weeks ago. So it's looking like we'll go over all this, but it looks like they'll play the Packers, right? If they get the two seed.
15:28 Bill Simmons? It looks like two. It's looks like Bears Packers two, seven, unless the Lions have some sort of crazy out of nowhere win in in week 18.
15:37 Speaker 01 So a month ago or five weeks ago, when the Packers played them at home and and beat them, we're like, yeah, that's what should happen. Yeah, get get lost, Bears. Get out of the way. And then like, when they came back, the Bears on that Saturday night and they just like that crazy touchdown at the end, the onside kick and everything like, like, oh, man, well, that's stupid, too. But at least they're closer. Now, if they play, I'd be surprised if the Packers stayed within within nine or 10 points, honestly.
16:00 Bill Simmons? Oh, especially with all the injuries the Packers have had. I mean, they they're like an ambulance unit at this point. Yeah, I, you know, the Eagles at halftime of that Eagles Bills game, you're thinking like, this is it. Finally, somebody has arrived in the NFC to challenge one of these NFC West teams. Like, thank you. Thank well, you're late to the party, but thank you. And then the second half, Hertz doesn't have a completion and they should have lost the game. And we're we're basically back to where we were, where we had this great Eagles win and their fans feel terrible. Right? It's the classic Eagles gamut of emotions where they win, they pulled it out, nobody feels good about it. Not one person.
16:41 Speaker 01 They won for a month like that, basically. Not, you know, now they have two games where he didn't complete a pass in the second half, then they won the game. Like, just outrageous to me. I know the weather was bad, but, you know, they went up against Raiders, Giants, and if you were to just change the uniforms and said, okay, which one of these games, which one of these teams is tanking? He's like, oh, it's probably the probably the team with the quarterback who can't complete a pass. That's it. They're getting the first pick no matter what. So I don't know. I don't know how they're doing it. That defense is excellent. Much better with Jalen Carter, obviously. But man, oh, man, put together something, something in the second half.
17:17 Bill Simmons? It's just like a lack of desperation and creativity when they have leads. I felt like I've watched that Eagles game eight times this year, where they look good for about an hour, and then they kind of hold on. And then you wonder what what what's happening? Why are their play? Why am I predicting every play they're running from the couch? You know, and then they barely hold on and you feel awful, but.
17:40 Speaker 01 Do you think Sarianni is like buying into the crap? Or do you think he just has to be like?
17:45 Bill Simmons? Burling it like he's just pulling out just enough to win every week?
17:49 Speaker 01 After the game is talking trash, he's going through the tunnels like I told you, no one's saying anything yet. And he actually walks right by the locker room like everyone's rolling their eyes at him. But does he think like this is the way to do it? Like he's going to be able to knuckleball his way to to the finals? Maybe he will because he's been there.
18:05 Bill Simmons? Did five straight punts in the second half.
18:09 Bill Simmons? They blocked the PAT, which is the only reason the Bills wouldn't have just won on that second TD.
18:17 Bill Simmons? Allen kind of gacked the throw. I, I, you gotta call it for what it is. If that's any other quarterback, we're talking about how the quarterback choked. Allen's been great. I know he's banged up. There's a lot of quarterbacks banged up, but it was just a gack. The guy was wide open. They didn't really give us the all 22 of the, they gave us a side view and then another thing. So I, I know when the all 22 comes out tomorrow, it just feels like he just completely missed him. And I don't know whether he was going to his left. They were trying to make excuses for him. They're like, well, he was off balance. He was drifting. It's like, I don't know, man. Like this guy's supposed to be the best quarterback in the league. You kind of have to make that throw.
18:57 Speaker 01 Tarrico just unleashed the all 22. We could watch now. NBC has, they have the right to everything. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, it was, it was a little bit off balance. It's a throw he makes probably 90 out of 100 times. It was bad. It was in the rain, but yeah, definitely his fault. But getting him down there is just, it was all Josh Allen, like running sideways for nine yards, just lunging on the fourth down and scoring. I can't believe how many people thought it was the wrong move to go for two. Like I thought, I was like, yeah, that's a no brainer. Which way were you thinking on that?
19:26 Bill Simmons? Oh, 100% go for two. The game didn't, if it was week eight or if it was, they actually could win the AFC East if they win this game. Right. Maybe you're thinking different, but they didn't want to. Allen's already hurt.
19:39 Speaker 01 That's it.
19:40 Bill Simmons? It's pouring rain. The field's terrible. Your playoff seed is what it is to begin with. Like, why not go for it? The Eagles defense had been on the field for like, it felt like an hour. Straight. And you should be able to get it. And by the way, the guy was wide open and they have the best quarterback in the league and he's got to hit the throw. Drake May hits that throw. I'm sorry.
19:57 Speaker 01 Eagles? Oh, that's what this is. That's what you wanted to get.
20:00 Bill Simmons? Drake May hits the throw. He does.
20:02 Speaker 01 Why? It's a maybe.
20:04 Bill Simmons? I think Purdy hits the throw. I could name 10 quarterbacks who hit that throw. I couldn't believe he missed it.
20:08 Speaker 01 Josh Allen hits the throw. He doesn't typically miss that. What are you gonna do?
20:12 Bill Simmons? He's the best QB in the league. It was terrible.
20:14 Speaker 01 Right. But I don't think people should say they couldn't, shouldn't have gone for two because he missed that. Like, they just, like, like you said, like, small chance they were gonna win the AFC East anyway. Allen's, he is injured. Like, that foot's a real injury. They want to probably sit him next week. They definitely don't want him to play in overtime. By the way, your kicker just shanked, your kicker, your Bills kicker wearing number 32. In honor of OJ. Weird enough. Slices it. Blocked.
20:38 Bill Simmons? I love that.
20:39 Speaker 01 And that's it. What the hell?
20:41 Bill Simmons? I love this. Pay no much to OJ.
20:43 Speaker 01 That's a costume party.
20:44 Bill Simmons? If that's a playoff game, you kick the PAT, you take it to overtime.
20:49 Speaker 01 Fine.
20:49 Bill Simmons? And, and you trust that your defense has stopped them for an hour and a half and your offense has been moving the ball and you're at home and you're gonna win the game. But week 18, when you're gonna be, what are they, the, the six or the, they're gonna end up being the sixth seed, I think is how it's gonna shake out.
21:02 Speaker 01 How do they get the six? Oh, they're seven now. How would they get there?
21:05 Bill Simmons? Because the Chargers would have to beat Denver to keep the, keep the sixth seed.
21:11 Speaker 01 Oh, they do?
21:13 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
21:13 Speaker 01 So if they both lose Chargers and Bills, the Bills.
21:16 Bill Simmons? The Bills win next week and the Chargers lose. The Bills are the sixth seed and the Chargers are the seventh seed.
21:23 Speaker 01 But if the Bills sit everyone. I know it's against.
21:26 Bill Simmons? But why would they do that, though? I don't.
21:28 Speaker 01 Because their quarterback's injured and everything. Do you think they?
21:31 Bill Simmons? They're playing the Jets. They're gonna be like two touchdown favorites. You gotta at least try to win that game for a half.
21:38 Speaker 01 We'll talk about that, but you you think they want to definitely go to Jacksonville versus go to New England?
21:43 Bill Simmons? Well, let me ask you. The Pats are getting Milton Williams back and they're getting Will Campbell back. They're 13 and 3. They have May, who's playing the best of anyone in the league right now. Why would they want to play the Patriots over the Jaguars?
21:56 Speaker 01 Well, because I think Josh Allen.
21:58 Bill Simmons? Jaguars 100 times out of 100.
22:00 Speaker 01 Allen probably just heard you say Drake May makes that throw and now he's angry.
22:04 Bill Simmons? Drake May would have made the throw. I mean, he was hurt. It's pouring rain. I get it, but if you're the best quarterback in the league, you gotta make the throw. But if that was Mahomes two years ago and he missed that throw, we'd be like, I can't believe Mahomes missed that throw.
22:16 Speaker 01 More times than not, though, when these teams have a choice between a seven or a six seed, they don't they'll they'll err on the side of rest.
22:23 Bill Simmons? But they're playing the Jets. Don't want to. I watched the Jets for three hours today.
22:27 Speaker 01 Yeah, I know.
22:28 Bill Simmons? They want no part of even being with it. They've lost, I think they're the first team since 1967, since they've kept track of this, where there have been four December games. They're the first team who's lost all four December games by 23 points or more. They're gonna beat the Bills next week. There's no way.
22:45 Speaker 01 All right. So you're you're thinking Bills win, Chargers lose, sit everybody, and that's that's the six.
22:51 Bill Simmons? Well, here's these are the Pats threads I'm on, where we talk about why we don't still have Keon White and also how either way it's great for us. Because if if Denver beats the Chargers, fine, Denver's the one seed. Pats are the two seed. Pats then play the Chargers, who don't have either of their tackles, who have Herbert, who has this giant cast on his arm.
23:13 Speaker 01 Yeah.
23:14 Bill Simmons? And who really did not look good on Saturday. Or if the Chargers beat Denver, the Pats are the one seed if they beat Miami. So either way, that's great for the Pats. The thing that would suck is if Miami somehow beat them with Quinn.
23:28 Speaker 01 Oh, boy. Oh, you're looking too far ahead with these Chargers.
23:32 Bill Simmons? Well, that's the thing. I don't, I already don't like that. It's gonna be a late afternoon game. I don't like the late afternoon Sunday East Coast games. I think weird shit happens. It's like getting dark. It's freezing cold. The fans are dead. I don't like those games. Makes me nervous.
23:46 Speaker 01 I was looking because they have, Fandel has stage of elimination.
23:50 Bill Simmons? I saw that.
23:50 Speaker 01 And the Chargers, you and I, when we did the futures in August, I took Chargers first round. They lose. You could bet it in August and right now it's minus 155. I think that's a good bet. They're one and done.
24:03 Bill Simmons? So that's either them going to Jacksonville who housed them five weeks ago. Or the Pats. I mean, Herbert, I thought Herbert was awesome in that Houston game. They certainly didn't lose because of him.
24:14 Speaker 01 No.
24:15 Bill Simmons? But they just don't have enough, you know? I mean, the Shaky's game, can't believe they might not get the Chargers. They're like, what are we doing? If you check all of our boxes, you can't block. Your games are terrible.
24:28 Speaker 01 Is meeting with Goodell to see if they can fix anything up.
24:31 Bill Simmons? Chargers. We just want to get them in there. Stafford minus 250 for MVP. Has that changed?
24:39 Speaker 01 It's 250. Yeah.
24:41 Bill Simmons? Drake is plus 200. Everybody else is gone.
24:44 Speaker 01 Right. That's it. That's it.
24:46 Bill Simmons? So the Rams, the Rams are probably going to be a five or a six seed.
24:53 Bill Simmons? I'm not even sure they're gonna care about tomorrow night now, which if you have the Rams in parlays tomorrow, it's like, uh oh. Now, what happened? Yeah, we both do.
25:02 Speaker 01 Son of a bitch.
25:03 Bill Simmons? I don't know why Stafford's favorite. I don't really understand that.
25:06 Speaker 01 So you're saying, because I know Patriots fans are all caught up in this, how could a five seed quarterback on a five seed?
25:12 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I thought we established like it's the one or the two seed usually presents the MVP. Plus Drake has gotten better the whole season. I don't really care. I don't have money on it, but.
25:20 Speaker 01 Right.
25:22 Bill Simmons? I want to, I want to congratulate Josh Allen and the Bills for five straight AFC's titles. Which the streak ended today, but five straight's a good number.
25:32 Speaker 01 Good job by you.
25:33 Bill Simmons? That was one less than Tom Brady's second longest streak of six.
25:37 Speaker 01 There you go.
25:38 Bill Simmons? He had 11 and he had six. And then the Bills, who were supposed to own the division like Tom Brady and the Pats did for the next 20 years.
25:47 Speaker 01 I think they are the only, only team to win a division five years in a row and not make the, not make or not win the Super Bowl.
25:54 Bill Simmons? I thought it was not make the Super Bowl.
25:56 Speaker 01 Was it not make? Okay. You're all over it.
25:58 Bill Simmons? With all that said, I'm, that's the team I don't want to see in any part of the playoffs. I don't want to see Josh Allen. I, I was talking to my dad about it today and we were just going through all the teams and we were like, yeah, eh, and then it gets to the Bills. I was, yeah, don't want to see them. I don't want to go against Josh Allen for three hours, even though, you know, whatever happened today happened. That's still the guy.
26:18 Speaker 01 Are you insulted though, that they have the same odds as the Patriots to win the Super Bowl? 10 to one?
26:24 Bill Simmons? I think it's fair because the Pats haven't done anything and we've, we've been down this road with them and the Bears and these teams like this that, once it gets to January, I think it flips a little bit.
26:35 Speaker 01 Yeah.
26:36 Bill Simmons? Pats are, have stayed healthy. Today was a don't get hurt game in this, uh, Jets game. Drake had a 99.8 QBR, which was the highest since they started recording QBR. The Jets were awful. I mean, it was combo of Drake and the Pats were good, but the Jets were really awful. And then they had, they kind of had a rough in the passer. It was 28-3. Did you see this?
26:57 Speaker 01 Yeah, I did. Yep.
26:59 Bill Simmons? And Vrabel got pissed and the Pats went in an F you mood and drove down and scored. And then they called a timeout with like 11 seconds left. It felt like the Pats were back. I was.
27:07 Speaker 01 It was 35-3. Yeah. Vrabel calls a timeout. I mean, I guess he figures, what are the Jets going to make me pay for this? And, and the year 2052? Like what, what's the downside? But actually the downside is you could be a likable team now that you're good again, but you're choosing not to. So it's fine.
27:24 Bill Simmons? Listen, today might've been the peak of, the peak of the year for us. Like the chance to be, maybe get a one seed. We win the AFC East. Josh Allen doesn't win. This might be as good as it gets, but. 13 and 3 is pretty impressive. And then you get the thing that was being forwarded around today about how they beaten one team with a winning record.
27:43 Speaker 01 Yeah.
27:43 Bill Simmons? And I said, that's not true. And then I looked at it. I was like, ah, that is true. Yeah, we've had one win against a team with a winning record.
27:49 Speaker 01 They just demolished some of these teams though. I looked up, it was 22 to 3 and first downs. I was like, oh, geez. Why even getting out for the bus? This is just sick thing. And the fact that they have no interceptions still through 17 games. Like as a quarterback, you're Drake, but you're just foaming at the mouth. You're just, you have a free, as free a game as you want.
28:08 Bill Simmons? Well, the, I was had the New York football stuff that's in play right now, other than the four December games by 23 plus points, all losses, which Jets made history there. They were down 35 to 3 at halftime to a coach that they passed up on hiring two straight years. They could have fired Sal at two years ago and hired him.
28:27 Speaker 01 Right.
28:28 Bill Simmons? Frabel, they didn't. Last year, kind of like tepidly went after him and, you know, and he was kind of using them as leverage with the Pats. And then you have the Giants Raiders where we have this last 72 hours was hilarious with the injury scratches. Giants Raiders going for the one seed and we, you have a bunch of Giant fans in your life.
28:49 Speaker 01 Yeah.
28:49 Bill Simmons? And it was like, ah, this is how it's going to play out. The Giants are going to be dumb enough to win this game convincingly. I actually ended up putting them in a parlay because I was like, they're definitely stupid enough to win this.
28:59 Speaker 01 Yeah.
29:00 Bill Simmons? I finally ended up today, ended up putting them in the parlay, but they love doing this. They, the Raiders now have an 80% chance of the first pick. Max Crosby is playing basketball and jumping on a trampoline in videos. And what a mess. Just a mess all the way around, Sal.
29:16 Speaker 01 Well, you know how I hate this tanking stuff, right? I feel like December tanking should be reserved for the NBA and the NBA only. But, and I just, I had my fun with it for sure on the pregame show, but in the NFL really took a chance by isolating this game. Right? Like they really like, it was that.
29:33 Bill Simmons? They could have nudged one more early game to late.
29:36 Speaker 01 They should have sent this to Australia. This should have been played at 3:30 in the morning and nobody should have seen it because, but it's not like anyone's pumping on first down or purposely doing whatever. Ashton Gentey played the whole game. I know everyone made a big deal out of the Max Crosby thing. He hit an off balance three. He didn't look that good making that three pointer. Like I think if you, if you film our wives shooting off balance threes for a half hour, they're going to make one.
29:59 Bill Simmons? Good point.
30:00 Speaker 01 And I just don't like the, I don't know. I just, I think it's an arrogant stance by the front office of any team that's supposed to be tanking like, oh, we're not good at hiring coaches. We're not good at signing free agents, but get us our draft pick because that's where we're going to turn it around. It's like, no, you're not. Cut it out. Just play the game. Play to win.
30:18 Bill Simmons? I was texting with McShay today and it sounds like if the Oregon QB comes out, like if you look at FanDuel Mendoza, who's like supposed to be the number one pick, he's only minus 180 to be the first pick.
30:29 Speaker 01 Right.
30:30 Bill Simmons? Dante Morris. Morris plus 250. I think because they don't know if he's coming out yet or not, but it might be a two keep. So it might've worked out for the Giants. Anyway, the funny thing that was.
30:40 Speaker 01 The Jets are in trouble. Yeah, the Jets are the ones.
30:42 Bill Simmons? The Jets are the ones that could be in trouble. But, uh, Gino threw his 17th pick today. If you thought they were tanking, you didn't see Gino the rest of the year because he was on brand. He didn't do anything differently.
30:54 Speaker 01 I didn't see the box score. Did you mean 17th pick today or 17th pick today? Today he threw a 17th pick.
31:00 Bill Simmons? I think it's 17 picks and 29 drop picks is where it landed. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. FanDuel, changing the way that you bet live. They call it live bet. Bet live, whatever you want to call it. They're changing the way you live bet football. It starts with next drive SGP's. Now you can bet what's happening on next drive. Could be a touchdown, punt, a field goal, stack your player props, build your bet exactly how you want it. Just tie it to the one drive. Every NFL game day comes with a profit boost you can use on your next drive SGP. Visit fanduel.com/BS. Download the app today and bet the next drive your way. You must be 21 plus, present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky,
31:43 Bill Simmons? Wyoming. Opting for a bonus issued as non-deductible profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration, max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn Ads. The best B2B marketing gets wasted on the wrong people. So when you want to reach the right professionals, use LinkedIn Ads. LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1 billion professionals, including 130 million decision makers, and that's where it stands apart from the other ad buys. You can target your buyers by job title, industry, company, role, seniority, skills, company, revenue. So you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience.
32:28 Bill Simmons? That's why LinkedIn ads generates the highest B2B return and ad spend on all online ad networks. Seriously, all of them. Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one. Just go to LinkedIn.com slash Simmons Bill. Terms and conditions apply. Jags Colts.
32:50 Bill Simmons? Two more.
32:53 Bill Simmons? Red zone turnovers for the Jags in this game.
32:57 Speaker 01 Yeah.
32:57 Bill Simmons? Old man Phil Rivers going for his first win. All these shots of his family celebrating in the luxury box to take an early lead. And it's like, here we go, same old Jags. This is, I know where this is going and they won. They pulled it off. They staved off, uh, they staved off old man Phil. They finally got him to throw a pick. He was having the old guy luck. You're like, it was like dropping picks and stuff. And then finally they got a turnover off him. But did it change how you felt about the Jags at all?
33:25 Speaker 01 Yeah, it did. I, I felt the same way about Lawrence as I did with Purdy throwing that early interception. Like we've seen them not bounce back.
33:32 Bill Simmons? It wasn't going to sink them.
33:33 Speaker 01 Yeah, exactly. Well, I was surprised when it didn't. I was like, well, we've seen this, just put them behind the eight ball. And then like, they just couldn't back, come back from it. But like, we, we have a thing where we text the quarterback's name and then an exclamation point after any interception. There's like 70 of those throughout the day. But, um, when that happened, I was like, I'm live betting and I'm live betting Jacksonville here. They're just moving the ball too well. Otherwise the, they're doing good. Rivers, I know he owes us one. And also you can't ask for a lot more than him, right? Like he, I think over three games, he has four touchdowns, three interceptions, like about 550 yards. That's what you're going to get out of a guy you sign.
34:10 Bill Simmons? He was good last Monday. He was moving the ball, wasn't he? He wasn't the reason they lost to San Francisco.
34:15 Speaker 01 He didn't really cost them. So Riley Leonard cost them one pass and an interception. No, then the hail Mary, but, um, no, that, that's a game the Jags have lost. A hundred times in four years, you know? So.
34:28 Bill Simmons? I felt the same way. It was the first time I've watched the Jags where they had adversity early and a couple dumb things happened and I didn't feel like, oh, cross them off. You know, I also did not put them in anything today other than a 13 point tease that I sent you guys in the pregame show. But I didn't trust them at all. I didn't know what they were capable of. You know, on the one hand, they kind of went for it this year in a bunch of different, like they have a lot of first round picks. They had a lot of high picks over the last couple of years. They traded for Jacoby Myers during the season. They went all in on that Travis Hunter trade and traded all these future assets. So it was a little like Atlanta where they were really trying to be good in 2025.
35:09 Bill Simmons? On the other hand, a lot of it worked, you know, like, like when you look like Myers is over and over again. Third and nine, third and seven, that's, it just seems like that's become the guy. They got ETN going again. And I think they're a mildly frisky playoff team. Like they're probably going to be, it's a chance they're going to be a home underdog if it's Buffalo, if it's a three, six, right? I wouldn't be, wouldn't be opposed to taking them as a home dog in a playoff game, would you?
35:35 Speaker 01 Me too. I think like, and I, I'm pretty brave about this right now, but maybe in a couple of weeks I won't be. But I don't think the Bills have four in a row in them. So I don't know if it's the first one, if it's against Jacksonville or not, but they get stops. They do all the right things. They do all the teams that, I, I just can't believe, is this Indianapolis year? The, the strangest of any other, like their coach dies. They have Daniel Jones, they're seven and one, then they're eight and two. And then Jones goes out and they just free fall to the bottom and they Seinfeld.
36:06 Bill Simmons? They haven't won since, right?
36:07 Speaker 01 Sauce Gardner, oh my, they trade all these assets for Sauce Gardner. So their future is kind of screwed here. And not only, it's the AFC South, not only don't they make it at eight and two, but two other AFC South teams make it in the playoffs. Like they're not one of them. What a bizarre ass year.
36:24 Bill Simmons? That first round pick they gave up for Sauce Gardner, which feels like it was 10 years ago.
36:28 Speaker 01 Oh, yeah.
36:29 Bill Simmons? And it's like, oh yeah, well, they're going to be a one or a two seed. So that pick will be bottom of the first round. Now it's going to be like 16.
36:34 Speaker 01 Right in the middle.
36:35 Bill Simmons? So great trade for the Jets. What do they care? I actually wrote down in my notes. Is there an MVP case for Daniel Jones, even though he only played half the year?
36:45 Speaker 01 Interesting.
36:46 Bill Simmons? Like gets hurt, they never win again. Maybe he was the MVP.
36:50 Speaker 01 Right.
36:51 Bill Simmons? That should be an NFL honors, the award for, I didn't realize how important you were until something bad happened, or whatever that's called.
36:59 Speaker 01 It's so funny because I had in my notes, that's why I would pick Ben Johnson for coach of the year because he gets the double, the double FU we saw with Detroit, can't get a first down for some reason. And all what he's doing with the Bears, the worst of first deal.
37:14 Bill Simmons? Jags Colts, unbelievable turn of events for the Colts and the Bucks. And I was trying to think like, is this unusual or what? And it's just, the season's so fucking long.
37:26 Speaker 01 Yeah.
37:26 Bill Simmons? We talked about this last week. The season's just too long. It takes forever. Guys get injured. These big injuries, you've a cluster of injuries, you've just, your season flips. Dolphins Bucks, where, I don't know if you saw this, but the Tampa players, they had a press conference about an hour ago. They announced they've, they've run out of ways to quit on Ted Bowles.
37:47 Speaker 01 Oh, wow.
37:48 Bill Simmons? Yeah. They, they said, we've tried everything. We've lost seven of eight. We've tried to lose games at the end. We've tried to get killed during games. We've tried to seem unprepared. We've tried to have games where we have 12 penalties. We don't know what else to do other than not show up for the next game. We've exhausted our options.
38:04 Speaker 01 Not only are they trying, the other teams are trying too. We're going to give you Quinn Ewers on a platter. We're going to give you the 17 point lead, everything else, but I, I don't get it at all. And I have this team that won a division. I stupidly took them to
38:16 Bill Simmons? You might still win it.
38:17 Speaker 01 Make it, I, I guess. I just, them and the Lions, like how, I look up and I see that they'll have 10 points in the fourth quarter. I'm like, how does this happen? How do these, who was calling these plays here? This is outrageous. And I don't want to hear about Tristan Wirfs. I get it, but.
38:32 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
38:33 Speaker 01 You know, I watched every single play. He had time to throw the ball, right? He had time to throw the ball downfield. He actually had that one scramble where he really should have been like, he should have been flattened in the pocket and he rolled left and he got a first down. And then he followed it with like, the worst interception you'll see if you live to be 150 years old.
38:52 Bill Simmons? He has eight picks in the last seven games. I was thinking that, well, two things, two awards for him. I think he took the season lead for hospital balls today. I think his receivers are now terrified when they're over the middle because his balls, you have no idea where they're going. But the, the Baker Mayfield award for the guy who looked like an MVP for five weeks and then completely died by the end of the year, you wondered if he was going to be on the team next year, which I think started with Russell Wilson, that one year when, remember Russell Wilson had that awesome September where like, he's never won the MVP. How crazy is that? Is this going to be the, by the end of the year, it was like, he might be out of the, out of Seattle, but Baker became that guy this year. He's just a gamut of emotions.
39:32 Speaker 01 When the Browns are like, yeah, man, we did the right thing. Okay, that's what we, we might've done the right thing with the Baker.
39:38 Bill Simmons? They might've felt that way until Sanders threw that pick. He threw the lob hail mary.
39:42 Speaker 01 That's true.
39:43 Bill Simmons? Interception. Then they're like, nah, maybe we did it to the right thing.
39:45 Speaker 01 I, I think he has a different form of a hospital ball. Like he throws it to the sideline. Like he'll throw overthrow Mike Evans by the sideline, but Evans has to die for it out of bounds.
39:55 Bill Simmons? Right. And he could get hurt and hit the bench.
39:56 Speaker 01 He'll run into like eight guys with jackets on and stuff. Sometimes it's his own guys, but like he gets up.
40:01 Bill Simmons? Yeah. What's that? That's not a hospital ball. That's like a, it's like a collision ball.
40:06 Speaker 01 Yeah, right, right. Yeah.
40:08 Bill Simmons? Who's the guy that, what's that? Allstate? The guy from Oz who's always banged up on Allstate? Ryan O'Reilly?
40:14 Speaker 01 Mayhem, right?
40:15 Bill Simmons? Yeah, whatever. But he was Ryan O'Reilly on Oz.
40:18 Speaker 01 Oh, I see what you're saying. Yeah.
40:19 Bill Simmons? Yeah. He throws the Allstate balls. It's like collision insurance.
40:23 Speaker 01 He gets the Allstate award.
40:24 Bill Simmons? It's like, nobody's safe. Cameramen, assistant coaches.
40:27 Speaker 01 He should do a commercial for sure.
40:29 Bill Simmons? So this is my favorite stat. I did a lot of research during the late games because there were only two games to watch and one of them was a complete abomination. So during the commercials, Bowles, Todd Bowles, this might be his second division title where the team went eight and nine.
40:47 Bill Simmons? That's a Hall of Fame candidacy material. Like, nobody is ever doing that again. Like, well, how many, how many losing record division champs have we ever had? He's gonna do it twice.
40:58 Speaker 01 Mike Tomlin's like, get off my back. You see what's going on in Tampa?
41:01 Bill Simmons? Right. He's like, at least I go nine and eight. I was thinking they could win the title, go eight, nine, but they'll still, they'd already planned on firing him after week 18. They might just do it anyway.
41:11 Speaker 01 Right.
41:11 Bill Simmons? Just bring in whoever, bring in Bruce Arians to, uh, coach it. One last thing on that game. First of all, I don't feel like that's an easy Pats Dolphins game next week, even though we haven't guessed the line yet. I know what it is, but I think the Dolphins have been reasonably frisky 80% of the time for two months here.
41:32 Speaker 01 I mean, they just came off, two weeks off of that Pittsburgh game was an abomination on Monday. Who'd they play last week? Cincinnati, who was left for dead and then they, I, I don't know.
41:42 Bill Simmons? Yeah, but they know they look pretty well. I mean, Tampa needed the game.
41:46 Speaker 01 I know, they look fine today.
41:48 Bill Simmons? Well, Tampa's still alive because the Panthers couldn't beat the Seahawks. And, uh,
41:55 Bill Simmons? I was texting with Danny Kelly and Mina Kimes about this, two Seahawks fans, asking them if the Seahawks have, have finally beaten out any confidence they had in January. Is there any, is there a small piece left? And it's, I think it's gone. I don't think you can watch this team for three hours a week and think they're gonna win a couple of straight playoff games and make the Super Bowl.
42:15 Speaker 01 After today, you thought, would they beat Carolina?
42:18 Bill Simmons? No, but just when you watch them for three hours, it's like, this is all cute.
42:23 Speaker 01 Right.
42:23 Bill Simmons? There's just no way they're actually gonna make the Super Bowl with this team. Darnold has 20 turnovers, which leads the NFL. Seattle has 28 turnovers, which is the second highest. And they, here's another stat for you. They've only gone for it on 13% of the first downs this year, which is the worst in the NFL. So the coach doesn't trust the offense. The offense still turns the ball over all the time. It just feels like it's ready for a January playoff tsunami for them, so.
42:51 Speaker 01 So you trust them least out of the three NFC West teams?
42:55 Bill Simmons? I think out of all the good teams, I trust them the least. I just don't trust our offense. Their offense hasn't been good for two months. I don't see how it's going to change. Just take out JSN as much as you can. What else are they going to do?
43:05 Speaker 01 I guess.
43:06 Bill Simmons? Like screen pass to Kenneth Walker? What else is left?
43:09 Speaker 01 And sometimes that works like all game, all three hours. And sometimes you don't see it at all. But I don't know what to do with this. Like, I feel like I have to step aside. Sam Donald, that's 26 wins in two years. 26 wins.
43:21 Bill Simmons? Well, their defense won the game today. Bryce Young.
43:24 Speaker 01 Yeah.
43:25 Bill Simmons? Had 54 yards passing total, which is the same number as times Panthers fans have switched their opinion on him. I think they're now glass half empty on Bryce. But like a week ago, it's like, we might have a guy. I don't, it's almost like it needs to end. But what would you do if you were a Panthers fan? Would you want him back next year?
43:43 Speaker 01 He threw 24 times. You could have 54 passing yards on like six or seven attempts, but not on 24.
43:50 Bill Simmons? Yeah. What was that? You mailed me that stat. Who was the guy? The last guy?
43:53 Speaker 01 David Woodley. David.
43:54 Bill Simmons? David Woodley in 1980?
43:56 Speaker 01 Yeah. Sorry, David Woodley. I'm sorry. We don't bring you up that much, but that's.
44:00 Bill Simmons? Sadly, I'm old enough to remember David Woodley and he was not good. Yeah.
44:04 Speaker 01 Hey, if I can get Malik Willis, I would do that over Bryce Young, I think. I mean, he's going to get paid now, Malik Willis, isn't he?
44:13 Bill Simmons? Would you take Mac Jones over Bryce Young?
44:14 Speaker 01 I don't know.
44:15 Bill Simmons? Because I think I would.
44:17 Speaker 01 I don't know. It's close. I just don't think this team should be anywhere near where they are anyway.
44:24 Bill Simmons? We just can't escape.
44:26 Speaker 01 No.
44:26 Bill Simmons? The crumminess of the NFC South. And the funniest thing is the best QB in the conference now, or the division now is Shuck.
44:34 Speaker 01 No doubt. It's not even close, is it?
44:36 Bill Simmons? It's just, I mean, he was 22 for, he gets the Titans, but he was 22 for 27 for 333 and two TDs. Name anyone he played with today. Like, who was on his team? It was unbelievable.
44:50 Speaker 01 If you actually look, Olave has like nine touchdowns. That surprised me. I looked at his numbers and everything.
44:54 Bill Simmons? Yeah, Olave has been his one guy, but they had, he had Vale, who I had on my, uh, my fantasy team for a week. He's out for the year, but they, they lost Kamara, they've lost all these guys. Shuck is now plus 120 for offensive rookie of the year on Fendel.
45:08 Speaker 01 I saw that. I don't, why is he behind Ted McMillan? Like, I, I know you shouldn't get too excited about a win over the Titans, but this guy's solid. And he's not going to really lose you games like this. And you're, like you said, he's, I know I'm being facetious, but I'm really not.
45:21 Bill Simmons? Solid. I honestly think he's better than solid. I think he's legitimately pretty good.
45:26 Speaker 01 Well, he has more 300 yard passing games than Drake, maybe. So, maybe.
45:30 Bill Simmons? And he's tough. We talked about him last week. I was texting with McShay about it because McShay was all in on him. From the Senior Bowl and
45:37 Speaker 01 What a name dropper you are. McShay and Nina, Danny Kelly.
45:41 Bill Simmons? I have more. I have more coming.
45:42 Speaker 01 David Woodley.
45:43 Bill Simmons? But McShay, McShay was, was wondering like, these older QBs, maybe this is like an inefficiency now. In the NFL, these guys who have just lived some life instead of just bringing these, maybe think of like that Oregon QB who's going to be like 21 next year. Like maybe, maybe that's not a good idea.
46:04 Speaker 01 Yeah.
46:05 Bill Simmons? To bring in like the baby.
46:06 Speaker 01 No, I know. I mean,
46:08 Bill Simmons? Versus like this old guy has bounced around.
46:10 Speaker 01 We've seen both, right? We saw like Bo Nix, a million starts and a lot, a lot of these guys are going to have like 60 starts. Purdy. So, we've seen it go both ways, but I might rather have an older one, except that when you sign him to that contract, then you have a big decision to make when he's like 29 years old, the first time.
46:29 Bill Simmons? Right. So, the Seahawks win next week. They're playing the Rams. I'm, I'm sorry. They're playing the 49ers.
46:37 Bill Simmons? Which number one seed would you feel worst about Denver or Seattle?
46:43 Speaker 01 Or if I'm the opposing team?
46:44 Bill Simmons? Just you in general, from a gambling standpoint, from a football fan standpoint?
46:49 Speaker 01 Yeah.
46:49 Bill Simmons? Just everything. Like which one, which one makes you queasier out of those two?
46:53 Speaker 01 So you're gonna say Seattle, but I think Denver.
46:56 Bill Simmons? I would say Denver.
46:57 Speaker 01 Yeah.
46:57 Bill Simmons? Cause at least Seattle's defense, we've seen them really turn it up. Whereas Denver's defense, I'm not even sure where we totally are with it at this point.
47:06 Speaker 01 Denver, they beat the Jets by two, they beat the Giants by one, they beat Davis Mills by three, they beat the Raiders by three, and then they beat them by seven. That was, you know, that was a weird one.
47:15 Bill Simmons? The Casey game was alarming. Like Casey almost beat them.
47:18 Speaker 01 Chris Oladokun by seven.
47:20 Bill Simmons? The fuck was that? Kelsey's like wide open on, he's the only receiver they had.
47:24 Speaker 01 Yeah. Yeah. Like we've seen them do, open up their offense and play great, but that's half their schedule, I just read to you.
47:33 Bill Simmons? Well, I was thinking, I was looking back at the 2008 season, cause I was trying to think of the last crazy, I've mentioned this before, but the last really truly crazy season. And that was the year when Pittsburgh played Arizona in the Super Bowl. But I was looking at the first round where, so things that happened that year, Arizona was a nine and seven champion that then made the Super Bowl and just kept upsetting people. The Chargers were an eight and eight division champ. They of course won in round one. But if you look back at round one, I think all of them were upsets. The Chargers beat the Colts, the Eagles beat the Vikings, the Ravens beat the Dolphins.
48:12 Bill Simmons? Each one, it felt like, I think the underdog maybe won outright three of the four, and it just kinda kept going and was just one of those stupid years. And then ended up with a Pittsburgh, Arizona, which I think was the birth of the Gary Russell prop.
48:26 Speaker 01 Oh, beautiful. What a beautiful day.
48:28 Bill Simmons? Looking at that first round made me wonder if that, if that's what we're headed for this year with even more games, where we're gonna have six games round one, or we just got like five upsets.
48:36 Speaker 01 I just, and I texted you, like, and I texted Bill Simmons, I'll drop the name, like an hour ago, I was like, man, this is, we are gonna have, it's gonna be impossible to make money in the playoffs, because who do you trust? I think your overall point is Denver and Seattle. You're not getting that trust factor because you're not getting that go to quarterback, the one that's been there for so many years, but I guess.
48:59 Bill Simmons? Well, we always look at it like, yeah, who couldn't we put as the anchor of a tease or parlay? Who's like a minus 250, minus 300, seven point favorite, seven and a half point favorite? I don't have the team. I don't like, I don't trust the Niners from what we saw today. Their defense can't stop anybody. They're gonna like, they're gonna have to outscore somebody, which is what they did today for two hours, but then they finally had to punt and it felt like they were gonna lose the game. Not to mention if you have one turnover. So a couple more games quickly. Browns Steelers, which we thought the league, this was the one you rig. If you're gonna rig a game, not that the league's fixed, but if it was.
49:37 Speaker 01 Sure.
49:38 Bill Simmons? This would be the game you fix where the Browns win. Now there's no DK Metcalf. That was the case for Browns money line. Who had that on the pregame show? Somebody must have had Browns money line, right?
49:47 Speaker 01 Uh, we've had, a few of us had plus three and a half or plus three.
49:52 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I thought Browns without Metcalf.
49:54 Speaker 01 Yeah.
49:54 Bill Simmons? Rogers was helpless. 39 attempts for 168. It looked like the classic bullshit Steelers game that they're gonna somehow win. And they didn't win. They lost.
50:06 Speaker 01 Deep exhale from Roger Goodell as Rogers sailed that fourth down pass out of the end zone. He had, he got his Sunday night matchup for 18. But yeah, man, I, you know, I don't wanna, I'll give Miles Garrett credit. It really, it seemed right. Like, yeah, they were just too worried about stopping me. They weren't worried about like winning the game. Like they really didn't plan. They were moving him around and he was a pain and Rogers didn't throw downfield until like late in the game when they played prevent, which was driving us crazy. He got like two or three first downs in a row, but it is the same old Pittsburgh team. Like they're either gonna go nine and eight or they're gonna be a first round casualty. So that'll be that.
50:45 Bill Simmons? I wonder like in classic Pittsburgh fashion, will Metcalf somehow get exonerated? Because there was a story today about how when he played for Seattle, the same fan messed with him. Will they review it and be like, no, actually, we can't suspend you for week 18? And then all of a sudden, he's back there playing Baltimore.
51:03 Bill Simmons? Sanders had a couple of good throws, had one of the worst picks I've ever seen in my life. They did not score 14 points. There was a stat that they lead the league in the 2020s. They have six wins where they didn't score 14 points. So, congrats to the Browns fans. You guys did it. The Steelers looked awful, though, and I've learned not to bet honor against them in these games. They're just a complete stay away now, right?
51:29 Speaker 01 What are we gonna do next Sunday, though?
51:32 Bill Simmons? I guess we are gonna have to bet on that.
51:34 Speaker 01 Yeah, you know, when Deion is hiding behind his cowboy hat, things are bad. You can't spend it anymore.
51:40 Bill Simmons? That was tough. Saturday football, we had the Derrick Henry fuck you game. 216 and 4 TDs. We had a ridiculous Texans win over the Chargers that I still can't believe I lost. Kicker dicker, missed a P A T and a field goal, gassed and dropped a, what's just sent an interception up in the air. Herbert was amazing. The Texans had two long passes and then did nothing else the entire game. They've somehow won eight straight. I don't know what to make of them. It was a weird day of football. Which game did you take more out of?
52:14 Speaker 01 I mean, that Ravens Packers game, I would have thought under. I would have thought there wasn't going to be that much offense, at least from Baltimore. And I don't know, I look at it, I'm like, Harbaugh kind of blew it for this team. If they don't come away with a win Sunday night against the Steelers, like, so many times, he had a healthy Derrick Henry available to close out a game and just forgot about him. What, he had 216 and four touchdowns? He has almost 1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns. And what do you have, like 18 carries against you guys and 10 against Cincinnati?
52:45 Bill Simmons? Didn't play against us in the last seven minutes.
52:47 Speaker 01 Why? Like, does he just forget? Like, set an alarm. The game starts at 1, set your alarm for 3:15, and then your iPhone goes, it has all kinds of like, audio sounds, like, radio and canopy and chirp and story. Just get the alarm you want and put him in. Like, it's insane to me that they're this close.
53:06 Bill Simmons? Hire a Derrick Henry advisor.
53:07 Speaker 01 Yeah. That was very weird. I tell you what, I don't mind Huntley in the playoffs if it comes to this.
53:14 Bill Simmons? I don't, somebody will make this a story Tuesday, Wednesday. Would you rather have a healthy Huntley or a banged up Lamar?
53:20 Speaker 01 I'm not saying that, but I don't mind him. I don't think he's not awful. We'll see.
53:25 Bill Simmons? Would you rather have a healthy Huntley or a banged up Lamar?
53:27 Speaker 01 Oh shit. I didn't know you were gonna ask me that.
53:30 Bill Simmons? Like if Lamar can't really move around like he normally does.
53:33 Speaker 01 Yeah.
53:34 Bill Simmons? And he's hampered and he just doesn't seem right.
53:38 Bill Simmons? It's at least a discussion. I know they'll go with Lamar cause he's been in the big games, but um, I love the Ravens on Saturday night.
53:46 Speaker 01 If he can't move like Huntley did yesterday and the other team knows about that, then yeah, it's Huntley.
53:53 Bill Simmons? I love the Ravens on Saturday night, had multiple real life bets on them and somehow in Ringer 107, lost our Ravens bet because we moved it to four and a half, did the under of like 55. And of course, what were the odds that game was gonna have over 50 points, much less 60? It's 65 point game.
54:12 Speaker 01 Willis and Huntley, always a, always that kind of year.
54:15 Bill Simmons? Yeah. Willis is, that's worth a gamble, I think, in the offseason. Like that could be the reclamation guy this year, right?
54:23 Speaker 01 Yeah. We were talking about on the pregame show and Matt Flynn got his bag, as you'll say.
54:28 Bill Simmons? That's the worst, worst version of this.
54:30 Speaker 01 But at least there were like 25 good quarterbacks back then. Like,
54:35 Bill Simmons? Right.
54:35 Speaker 01 Yeah, it was a stretch, but they were good quarterback. Malik Willis is a no brainer at this point. Like he could start for probably six teams.
54:43 Bill Simmons? Mitchell and Matt Flynn, those were the two famous ones.
54:47 Speaker 01 Mitchell, right.
54:48 Bill Simmons? Scott Mitchell was a classic.
54:52 Bill Simmons? And then the Christmas was awful. Did you have fun at least with the Cowboys, Washington?
54:56 Speaker 01 That's great. That's it, man. I keep, you know, we did our Netflix thing and then uh, we watched Josh Johnson, looked like a playoff quarterback, but yeah, that was fine. Cowboys win.
55:07 Bill Simmons? Rossmar versus golf was amazing. Especially if you had the Vikings and then uh and Broncos KC was abysmal. I have my parent corner is going to be about that. Actually, I have one last thing for you.
55:19 Speaker 01 Oh, I was gonna say the Detroit thing. Let's just put another nail on Dan Campbell's coffin. Like, I think since he announced he's calling the plays. That offense has been a complete curiosity like he's, I think that's the worst proclamation of 2025. Him saying, hey, look at me. I'm calling the plays. It just all went.
55:39 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I've got this.
55:41 Speaker 01 Like.
55:42 Bill Simmons? Dad's driving now. Give me the steering wheel. I've got it.
55:45 Speaker 01 Kids, get out of the way. I think I I wrote down top four worst proclamations of 2025. It's Dan Campbell announcing that he's calling the plays. It's Pam Bondi saying the files are on my desk. It's me announcing my nickname for the Pats QB.
56:01 Bill Simmons? Drake maybe?
56:03 Speaker 01 Drake maybe? Yeah. Follows me everywhere. Or you announcing your addiction to hot water with lemon. So I think we should put that to a poll. Those four. You have it? Look at you.
56:13 Bill Simmons? I got a new thing, actually.
56:14 Speaker 01 What is it? Let's hear.
56:15 Bill Simmons? Well, I I did something you're not gonna like.
56:18 Speaker 01 Is this?
56:19 Bill Simmons? Been waiting to tell you.
56:20 Speaker 01 Is this in the top four? Is this a new entry in the top four?
56:23 Bill Simmons? You're not gonna be happy at all. Christmas was my last day eating bread and dessert.
56:30 Speaker 01 Oh.
56:30 Bill Simmons? And really any sugar.
56:32 Speaker 01 I'll stop it.
56:33 Bill Simmons? I'm done. I'm done. And guess what? I feel great. I think I've been really good on the podcast so far. You can feel the difference.
56:40 Speaker 01 Did someone give you a skirt for Christmas? Like, what, what?
56:43 Bill Simmons? No sugar in the morning on my coffee, just coffee and half and half. No dessert. I'm just done. I'm done. I realized sugar was just like bad for me as we get older and I'm just gonna try life without sugar for a while.
56:55 Speaker 01 All right. Of course you're right, but don't do it.
56:58 Bill Simmons? So the only thing I've allowed myself is hot water with a little honey in it, just a little so I can taste it. And that's it. That's what's keeping me alive right now because I can't have dessert, pizza, no pasta anymore. I'm giving up a lot of stuff. But you saw me do this in the 2010s. You saw me do this for like four years. I was pretty committed.
57:15 Speaker 01 You're always the same way.
57:16 Bill Simmons? Bianco's out. Chris Bianco's gone. He's out of my life.
57:19 Speaker 01 Terrible. That's terrible.
57:20 Bill Simmons? Out of my life. Turns out I didn't really need him.
57:23 Speaker 01 Congratulations, Dan Campbell. You're bounced from the top four worst proclamations.
57:27 Bill Simmons? I figured you'd hate this.
57:31 Bill Simmons? I made a list to celebrate the end of 2025 of my list of things during the typical NFL weekend that I've given up figuring out. Of seven things. Driving the QB into the ground on a sack being either a penalty or not a penalty, depending on how the linesman's feeling on this specific play. I've just given up. Sometimes it's like if you wrap your arms around, but it's for one one hundredth of a second too long, or you push, you have to tackle him, but you can't tackle him too hard. You have to kind of pull your arms as he's landing, you have to pull your arms back.
58:09 Speaker 01 Yeah.
58:10 Bill Simmons? But even then, it might be rough in the passer anyway.
58:13 Speaker 01 Well, you know what I say about that? I think that's fat shaming. I think anyone who is bigger than the quarterback, if you weigh four more pounds than the quarterback, you can't drive into him and complete a tackle.
58:22 Bill Simmons? Right.
58:23 Speaker 01 I don't like that. Yeah.
58:24 Bill Simmons? That's fair.
58:25 Speaker 01 No pizza, no bread.
58:26 Bill Simmons? Taunting penalties, just there's no ramaries in them anymore. I watched, there was one in the Browns game today that was, it was awful. There was other ones where the guy stands over a receiver and then nothing happens. They just, that's arbitrary.
58:40 Speaker 01 Right.
58:41 Bill Simmons? When you can take your helmet off on the field has now, we've gotten really flimsy with this.
58:46 Speaker 01 Right.
58:47 Bill Simmons? You see this a lot now as the guys are walking off, they just take the helmet. This used to be like dating back to Dwayne Rudd. This was like, you can't take your helmet off to get to the sideline. Now it feels like maybe you can take your helmet off. I don't know what to think anymore. They don't call it. When was the last time you've seen them call that?
59:05 Speaker 01 Yeah, you're right. They haven't called it. They're not consistent.
59:08 Bill Simmons? Caleb does it a lot. Caleb does it as like, he's not even on the sideline yet and it's off.
59:12 Speaker 01 Good, good. They should have flagged him. Yeah, I know if you get it ripped off, you could basically, you get a free, like you could do a chorus line on the field with your helmet off.
59:20 Bill Simmons? Yeah, you can do, you can do a podcast.
59:22 Speaker 01 Yeah.
59:23 Bill Simmons? Four more. This was really important yesterday in the Chargers Texans game. And it goes both ways. These pass interference bump clutches after five yards, like six, seven yards.
59:35 Speaker 01 Right.
59:36 Bill Simmons? And the guys are tangled up. And then sometimes it's offensive pass interference because the guy pushed off. Other times the guy held too long and it's just game to game. You have no idea. What, how to interpret it. And for some reason, it decides games left and right, and they've never decided on an explanation.
59:54 Speaker 01 And whoever the rules analyst is, is they take the side of the referee in that case.
59:59 Bill Simmons? Every time.
59:59 Speaker 01 You can't do that. It's like you're getting scolded by the principal. Like, don't do, don't do it. Just don't.
1:00:04 Bill Simmons? You can't push off and break away.
1:00:07 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:00:07 Bill Simmons? And then offensive pass interference is the other one where we've seen, especially near the sideline now, they're calling the little shove offs.
1:00:15 Speaker 01 The pick.
1:00:15 Bill Simmons? When the guy's going for it, but they're not calling the opposite when the guy's getting shoved. Then it feels like they bent it against the receiver. Second to last one, tackles, the left and right tackles being able to jump backwards for the snap. We just don't call that anymore. I don't know why. I don't know. It's, it's, it's, it's a false start every time. Then you're allowed to do false starts. And then last but not least, obviously, is continuation catches on TDs.
1:00:43 Speaker 01 Which one was that this week?
1:00:45 Bill Simmons? It wasn't this week, but just it'll happen five times a year and we've never landed on what's fair, not fair.
1:00:51 Speaker 01 Oh, yeah. Yeah. You have to do the Lambo leap and still have it in your possession for it to count. Yeah. Yeah. It's stupid.
1:00:57 Bill Simmons? You have to, you can run four steps so that flip it to the cheerleader. It's like, no, flipped it too soon. Didn't count. Not a catch. I don't know. Anymore? Is there any, any other ones you can't figure out?
1:01:07 Speaker 01 I just like, uh, my thing always is trying to draw the guy offside. This is not a rules thing, but trying to draw the team offsides from the shotgun in a loud venue. Like, you're never gonna do it. No one, I appreciate when you try to draw a team offsides and then punt it, but don't do it from the shotgun. I don't understand. Don't you want, if I'm screaming at you from six inches away, you're gonna be more startled than if I'm seven yards away, right? And everybody else is drowning me out. So that's, that's my, uh, big pet peeve.
1:01:37 Bill Simmons? Well, the new one people are trying, the new one people are trying is in the shotgun. They do this really fast, hoping somebody's gonna jump and, but it's, everyone knows that trick now.
1:01:46 Speaker 01 See that. I just don't, if I hear something, I might jump, right? Like, but if I see that, and we also laugh at the guys trying to down the punts now, like nine times out of 10, everyone, everyone. Just run off the field if you're trying to down a punt inside the five because you're ultimately going to kick it into the end zone.
1:02:03 Bill Simmons? We always text about that with our friend Hench because it's his favorite play in sports. When the punt's about to land at the one and the punt defender guy steps on the goal line or fucks it up or goes to throw it back and ends up throwing it forward. And the one today was epic though, because the guy saved it on the Eagles. Was it the Eagles? It was the Eagles. The next guy comes in to make sure the ball doesn't go to the goal line, but steps on the goal line. If I was the punter, I'd be so mad, but this is where we need Hench as a special teams coordinator. Just be like, there's Eagles special teams coordinator Kevin Hench. And he's just like, ah, ah, why?
1:02:44 Speaker 01 He's left the building. He said, the Zamboni machine ran him over.
1:02:48 Bill Simmons? He just stabbed the traitor.
1:02:49 Speaker 01 Yeah, any, anytime you, me or Hench can make a better play on something like that. It's not good.
1:02:57 Bill Simmons? The one I almost added, but I do think the refs have a handle on it, but it always takes them an extra 15 seconds that I have no idea why is the, is intentional grounding? When the guy, when the QB throws it away and it's clearly intentional grounding, but they don't call it. And then 15 seconds pass and the refs kind of look at each other and then they huddle up.
1:03:18 Speaker 01 Right.
1:03:18 Bill Simmons? And they're like, yeah, that probably was intentional grounding. And then they throw it. I don't know why we need 15 seconds to wait on that.
1:03:24 Speaker 01 I hopefully in the next couple of years replay assist will be broadened and we could just immediately. Let that take care of a lot of these things. So we don't have to worry about it.
1:03:32 Bill Simmons? This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Excitement is in the air. That's right. It's the start of NBA season. I can't wait to get together with friends, share some Michelob Ultras and watch Tip Off. Plus, as the official beer sponsor of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Opening US residents 21 plus. Begins on October 1st, 2026, ends on June 30th, 2027. Entry period. See official rules at micklowboucher.com/courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV.
1:04:17 Bill Simmons? You ever sit down, ready to watch the game only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you are live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching. Just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary. Playoff matchups right now would be Denver with the one seed. Pats Buffalo, but as we discussed,
1:04:45 Bill Simmons? that's not, it's gonna end up either Pats Chargers or Pats with the one seed. Jacksonville Chargers, which we've already seen, which might end up morphing into Jacksonville Buffalo.
1:04:56 Speaker 01 Right.
1:04:57 Bill Simmons? Pittsburgh Houston. So let's say, let's, let's, let's be smart and we'll say Denver, Chargers, Pats, Buffalo, Jags, Pittsburgh, Houston. And then in the
1:05:09 Speaker 01 Pittsburgh or Baltimore. Yeah.
1:05:11 Bill Simmons? Yeah, Pittsburgh or Baltimore against Houston.
1:05:13 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:05:14 Bill Simmons? Then, uh, Seattle in the, in the NFC. Bears Packers, Eagles Rams, Panthers Niners. So I just gave you six matchups. Panthers, Shaky's game to lose right now, like minus 200? What is it?
1:05:30 Speaker 01 Yeah, I think so. That's pretty good.
1:05:32 Bill Simmons? They'd put the Niners in the, in the Shaky's game, early start Saturday?
1:05:37 Speaker 01 You don't think they'll go AFC South for one of these? Like, could, could Jags Chargers make it?
1:05:44 Bill Simmons? Could be Jags Chargers. I think that's the other final.
1:05:46 Speaker 01 One of those.
1:05:47 Bill Simmons? If it's Jags Buffalo, they're not putting Josh in the first playoff game.
1:05:51 Speaker 01 Right.
1:05:51 Bill Simmons? Cause that's like, he's the most famous QB left at this point.
1:05:54 Speaker 01 If we're getting Rams Eagles in that first round, that's, I mean, if we get Rams Eagles, I know you don't want to think about it and Pats Bills. That's a solid, that I go back to my
1:06:05 Bill Simmons? That's supposed to be incredible.
1:06:06 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:06:08 Bill Simmons? There's no question that would be a who has the ball with two minutes left. Just prepare mostly. The Bills could be missing. Bills had fucking Brandon Cooks today. Made four big catches for them. I don't even think he was on an NFL roster five weeks ago.
1:06:21 Speaker 01 Like, did you know he was on the Bills? Because he's their best receiver right now. That's it.
1:06:24 Bill Simmons? Right. He was the only guy who could get open deep. And Brady was like, oh, Cookie. Yeah. If you played with him, you let, I was like, you played with him a year. Settle down. Guess the lines.
1:06:37 Bill Simmons? Week 18. What's our score? Nine to eight?
1:06:40 Speaker 01 I mean, you're gonna win because I don't even think this week should count. These lines move around so much throughout the week. Coaches lie about who's playing.
1:06:49 Bill Simmons? Quitting?
1:06:49 Speaker 01 Well, because I was off 40 points over 12 games, whatever, probably.
1:06:53 Bill Simmons? First game, Saturday. NFC South on the line. Tampa home for the Panthers. I mailed you two games because we knew what we were getting to games. So I, you know, I actually had these.
1:07:05 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:07:07 Bill Simmons? It's in Tampa.
1:07:10 Bill Simmons? I don't like either of these teams. I'm gonna be hard pressed to wager on this game. I think it might have to be a 13-point tease and that's it for me.
1:07:18 Speaker 01 Really? Which way, who are you adding?
1:07:21 Bill Simmons? I don't know. I just like that's that, or maybe put both of them in it. Bucks minus three was my guess.
1:07:25 Speaker 01 You got it exactly. I said three and a half. I thought it was a little too much for Carolina to handle, but it is three. Little caveat here. Doesn't necessarily get Tampa the division with a win. If Atlanta wins.
1:07:39 Bill Simmons? Craziest stat of all time.
1:07:41 Speaker 01 Really nuts. Atlanta, who's been eliminated.
1:07:44 Bill Simmons? Atlanta's been done for a month.
1:07:45 Speaker 01 Yeah. But if they were to beat the Rams and then beat the Saints next week. Wouldn't matter if Carolina won or lost. They'd be the champs.
1:07:55 Bill Simmons? So Carolina gets the South. If Atlanta beats the Rams, who might not have anything to play for anymore. And might just say, fuck it with tomorrow's game.
1:08:05 Speaker 01 And McVeigh's done that by the way. He rested his guys last year, McVeigh.
1:08:11 Bill Simmons? Did that line move?
1:08:12 Speaker 01 No, it didn't.
1:08:12 Bill Simmons? Oh, we didn't get, I wrote down my guess right there. We'll get there.
1:08:16 Speaker 01 Well, it's tomorrow. You're talking about tomorrow's line.
1:08:19 Bill Simmons? Did that line move? Still seven and a half?
1:08:21 Speaker 01 Seven and a half, yeah.
1:08:25 Bill Simmons? The funniest thing about tomorrow. So you have. That weird Rams thing where now it's suddenly the NFC South is tied to it. But then you also have Kyle Pitts potentially swinging fantasy titles tomorrow night. Right. This guy who everybody's had, everybody's spent a couple, gone a couple of rounds with and waved or hated it or hated the experience and whoever landed him around week 12, just like hit the lottery. Basically he'll probably have 40 points tomorrow.
1:08:56 Speaker 01 Yeah. I um, yeah, I think this is, oh, well, I have a bigger thing about fantasy later in parent corner, but I feel like this week should not be utilized. I mean, imagine having Puka in your lineup and McVeigh says, hey, we're sitting everybody like that just sucks. Like week, week 16 is when I think fantasy should end for now on.
1:09:16 Bill Simmons? Gahaus said the chat voted for hot water and lemon as the worst proclamation of the year.
1:09:20 Speaker 01 Oh, really?
1:09:21 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:09:23 Speaker 01 That's good. Tim Bondi's off the hook. All right.
1:09:26 Bill Simmons? Damn it. Can't believe she could beat me.
1:09:35 Bill Simmons? Bucks Panthers. I feel like we should fan bill. Let us do some special bets for this. I'm going to ask them like, should we be like, will this game have a pick six?
1:09:46 Speaker 01 Oh, I see.
1:09:47 Bill Simmons? What were the odds on that? Plus 200?
1:09:50 Speaker 01 A pick six?
1:09:51 Bill Simmons? Plus 300? What would be the odds for a pick six in a game that's clearly going to have a pick six?
1:09:55 Speaker 01 Oh, I see. Yeah.
1:09:56 Bill Simmons? Normal pick six odds are like 15 to one or 10 to one, whatever.
1:10:00 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:10:00 Bill Simmons? This is like the almost a lock. Somebody's throwing a pick six.
1:10:03 Speaker 01 Right. Yeah, for sure. Some kind of.
1:10:05 Bill Simmons? Under combined interceptions? Two and a half?
1:10:10 Speaker 01 That's good. I think so. Uh, down attempted down punts where the guy steps in the end zone. Seven and a half, I would say.
1:10:19 Bill Simmons? There's stuff you wouldn't be able to bet on like number of times the fan base quit on their quarterback. They're in this game.
1:10:26 Speaker 01 Right.
1:10:27 Bill Simmons? I mean, if Tampa, think about this, they're minus three at home against Carolina to make the playoffs. Like if they can't win this, what the fuck? If we, if we talked about this in September, like here's Tampa's season. They just have to beat Carolina by, by three.
1:10:42 Speaker 01 They've had so many bad losses, so many bad. I mean, imagine they lost that Thursday game to Atlanta. They're killing them.
1:10:49 Bill Simmons? Saturday night, NFC West on the line, one seed on the line. These two teams can't believe they're not playing on Sunday night. They don't know what else they needed to do. Niners home against the Seattle Seahawks. And I have the Niners favored by two and a half. I feel like that's low.
1:11:07 Speaker 01 I don't know why I went the other way. I thought it was tic tac. I was right about that, but I had Seattle as the favorite. It's San Francisco, one and a half. So you get it.
1:11:17 Bill Simmons? I went too high.
1:11:19 Bill Simmons? Wow. So they full tic tacked it.
1:11:21 Speaker 01 Yeah, that's a, that's a good one, man. It's a good one.
1:11:26 Bill Simmons? This, I'm gonna apply all playoff manifesto lines to this game. And one of the number one rules of the playoff manifesto is please study the quarterbacks long and hard and think about who you'd feel good about having in this game. And I feel good about having Sam Darnold.
1:11:40 Speaker 01 Just period.
1:11:42 Bill Simmons? I just wouldn't.
1:11:43 Speaker 01 How about McDonald on the road? Like, that's good. Like, it's all, I.
1:11:48 Bill Simmons? How about the team that doesn't ever want to go for it on fourth down in a big game?
1:11:52 Speaker 01 No, I get it.
1:11:52 Bill Simmons? That sounds terrible.
1:11:54 Speaker 01 What'd they play week one? San Francisco beat them week one, right? Seventeen thirteen?
1:11:58 Bill Simmons? All of these NFC West games have been close across the board.
1:12:03 Bill Simmons? I like the Niners. I do think it probably not awesome to have the six day turnaround for this one.
1:12:11 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:12:12 Bill Simmons? Right?
1:12:12 Speaker 01 And late.
1:12:13 Bill Simmons? Like, all of a sudden, they're playing five days from now. They just had a pretty grueling Bears game.
1:12:19 Bill Simmons? McCaffrey looked like, uh, he's gonna have to fly to, uh, Italy or Germany or somewhere to, yeah, get some stuff.
1:12:25 Speaker 01 Get the LeBron juice.
1:12:27 Bill Simmons? The marquee game, Sunday night, AFC North on the line. Ravens at the Steelers. We assume no Lamar for this, probably?
1:12:38 Speaker 01 I can't say anything. I can't say.
1:12:41 Bill Simmons? I assume no Lamar. I think the Ravens are favored either way. I think Mike Tomlin is exactly where he wants to be as a home underdog in a must win playoff game. He must be delighted. Uh, I have Ravens two and a half.
1:12:54 Speaker 01 All right, you're gonna get this. I said Ravens by one. I thought that was fair and it's Ravens by three.
1:13:02 Speaker 01 You're gonna kill me. I mean, these are the ones I'm closing.
1:13:07 Bill Simmons? I like the Ravens.
1:13:09 Speaker 01 That's what they want you to say.
1:13:10 Bill Simmons? Could I lose, could I lose one more time on the Steelers this year? They said it couldn't be done. They said I couldn't lose nighttime on them. If Metcalf doesn't play, like you, I don't know how many people listening are like watching all the games. You really had to watch that game, like how fucking helpless they were. Like they just didn't have anybody open. They were trying to run their normal garbage Steeler plays with like back shoulder throws and little lob pass in the end zone. Like they, they're running them with like, you know, their number nine receivers.
1:13:43 Speaker 01 Sometimes their defense gets mad enough where it just doesn't matter. I mean, think of how surprised we were when they lost the first week in December in, in Baltimore.
1:13:53 Bill Simmons? Could this be a Ravens alt line, like Ravens by 20? Like if they win, they're really going to win. Like it's like, almost like that, that Packers game or alt line 17 or something where they just run all over them.
1:14:05 Speaker 01 Like if Harbaugh gives Henry the ball more than 12 times, like they could actually, yeah. Yeah, it could be that.
1:14:12 Bill Simmons? Well, think about the Ravens.
1:14:13 Speaker 01 I'm scared to take the minus three here. I know they're better. I know all this stuff. It's all what you're saying, but there, there could be one more screw job in there for us.
1:14:23 Bill Simmons? There's no question. All right. Next one.
1:14:28 Bill Simmons? AFC number one seed on the line. There's two games. Broncos home for the Chargers. Really tough one to figure out from a Chargers standpoint, what their motivations are.
1:14:39 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:14:40 Bill Simmons? The Chargers lose.
1:14:44 Bill Simmons? They fall to a seven seed unless Buffalo also loses.
1:14:48 Speaker 01 Right.
1:14:49 Bill Simmons? The Chargers win, they get the six seed.
1:14:54 Bill Simmons? Do they care?
1:14:57 Bill Simmons? And then the Broncos, do you feel good them getting a lot of points over anybody? I didn't know what to do. I did Broncos minus seven and a half in Denver.
1:15:05 Speaker 01 All right, you're gonna be closer. Now, I said nine and a half. It's six and a half, but I think this will go to nine and a half. I think some, you know, Harbaugh, like I said, is gonna lie, and he's gonna say Herbert's not playing, and then he's gonna play like one series or something. And I think it'll go up. Everyone, the right people will know about it. But I'm very much looking forward to putting that on a money line parlay and losing.
1:15:27 Bill Simmons? I think the Broncos are a must for a money line tease.
1:15:30 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:15:31 Bill Simmons? Like, pencil them in as an anchor. I don't see... If it was like the Chargers going from a seven seed to the five seed, maybe, but you have the Texans playing the Colts, who it sounds like Phil Rivers is done. Like, he talked about these three games. Like, it's... I think that's it. I don't think he's playing Week 18. So that's Riley Leonard. So odds are Texans win that. So Texans are gonna be the five seed, it looks like.
1:15:57 Speaker 01 Right.
1:15:58 Bill Simmons? So do the Chargers. Like, yeah, I'd rather play Jacksonville, but is it... Would you rather just get the rest and...
1:16:04 Speaker 01 They don't care. Teams rarely care about that, right? Five, six, or seven.
1:16:11 Bill Simmons? Well, the Patriots are home for the Miami Dolphins. And I think this line is gonna be higher than it should be.
1:16:21 Bill Simmons? They lock down the two seed if they win. They could get the one seed if they win and Denver loses. I have the Patriots by 12 and a half.
1:16:28 Speaker 01 Whoa. I said eight and a half. It's nine and a half.
1:16:33 Bill Simmons? Okay.
1:16:36 Speaker 01 That's good. So that's a second anchor for your money line parlay.
1:16:40 Bill Simmons? It is Quinn Ewers on the road. I just wanna point that out.
1:16:42 Speaker 01 It's gotta be. Yeah. Which is... Isn't that what we saw today? Yeah, Quinn Ewers on the road. Yeah.
1:16:48 Bill Simmons? Yeah. We saw that today against Tampa Bay.
1:16:53 Bill Simmons? So that could be a, that's two less.
1:16:55 Speaker 01 You're not gonna blow that. You can't blow that. What did you beat them the first time? 33-27? That was ages ago though, right?
1:17:02 Bill Simmons? I think we get Milton Williams back for this game.
1:17:05 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:17:07 Bill Simmons? And then Will Campbell, not until round one, I don't think.
1:17:10 Speaker 01 Tees is throwing all over the place. I think it'll be similar to, it was Burrow that threw four touchdowns against them last week, right? Against Miami.
1:17:18 Bill Simmons? It's also, odds are cold weather, Miami in cold weather.
1:17:21 Speaker 01 Right, right, right.
1:17:21 Bill Simmons? There's some good signs for this.
1:17:22 Speaker 01 Forgot about that, yeah.
1:17:23 Bill Simmons? The late East Coast start always makes me nervous, but as we discussed. All right, AFC seeding on the line. Three games. Texans Colts in Houston.
1:17:36 Bill Simmons? Houston gets the three seed with a win if Jacksonville loses.
1:17:41 Bill Simmons? Houston gets a five seed if they win. And odds are it's Riley Leonard. I think the Texans are a classic. Be careful when they're favored by more than X amount of points and we're probably here. I have Texans by eight and a half.
1:17:57 Speaker 01 You're gonna get it. I said seven and a half. I don't know why I thought it was Rivers, but, and I'm not even sure. What do you think? There's a point difference from them? But anyway, it's 10 and a half.
1:18:07 Bill Simmons? Oof, that's too high.
1:18:08 Speaker 01 Is that three? That could be our three right there.
1:18:13 Bill Simmons? They can't really run the ball. They scored in the first two drives yesterday. And then for the next two and a half hours, did nothing. I don't know. That's a lot of points.
1:18:26 Speaker 01 See, I'm more, I think it's more likely that a team playing for a draft pick screws up this teaser than a team, like the three teams we just met, mentioned. The Raiders, after all this, could beat the Chiefs and then that'll be hilarious, right?
1:18:44 Bill Simmons? I don't think Pete Carroll would find it hilarious. They probably told him, like, we'll bring you back next year. Just make sure you lose the rest of this.
1:18:50 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:18:50 Bill Simmons? And then they'll fire. Jaguars home for the Titans.
1:18:57 Bill Simmons? Jaguars locked down the three seed with a win. I didn't, look, I, I think the Pats get the two seed either way, win or lose. Um, I don't think the Jags flip over them, but I might be wrong, but you know, there's a lot of moving pieces, but I think the Pats are locked into a two seed.
1:19:14 Speaker 01 Wait, 12 and four, 13, so they'd both be 13 and four. You say New England goes over Jacksonville?
1:19:20 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I think, I think they've been over them and all the weird tiebreaker stuff, but maybe I'm crazy. Um, regardless, Jags, I have minus 14 over the Titans.
1:19:32 Speaker 01 I said 13 and a half and it's only 10 and a half.
1:19:35 Bill Simmons? Ooh.
1:19:39 Speaker 01 Didn't they screw something up? Was it the Jags or the Colts a few years ago on week 18?
1:19:44 Bill Simmons? It was, it was the Colts. No, it was the Jags?
1:19:46 Speaker 01 It was Lawrence, wasn't it?
1:19:49 Bill Simmons? It was one of those AFC South teams.
1:19:50 Speaker 01 I can't remember, it was awful.
1:19:51 Bill Simmons? No, it was Indianapolis. It was Carson Wentz.
1:19:53 Speaker 01 That's what it was. And we all had them on every single teaser.
1:19:57 Bill Simmons? I will tell you right now, I'm not putting the Jags in a teaser. I still don't a hundred percent trust them.
1:20:01 Speaker 01 Yeah. Do you 2% trust Cam Ward?
1:20:07 Bill Simmons? Well, we know there's going to be a want game. We know it. We know one of these games is going to be fucked up. And the thing that scares me is it could be the Dolphins.
1:20:19 Bill Simmons? And then did we do Bills, Jets? We didn't. Bills home for the Jets. Bills stay the seven seed unless the Chargers lose. You could make an argument, they might throw the game away and not give a shit and rest Josh Allen for a week. But, uh, I did not factor that on my line. They're in Buffalo. I said Bills by 14 and a half.
1:20:38 Speaker 01 All right. It is Bills by 12 and a half, but you're going to get it because I said nine and a half.
1:20:47 Bill Simmons? Killing you this week.
1:20:48 Speaker 01 I think the, so it's Trubisky if it's not Josh Allen, like even if it's a couple like the great thing about this is you don't have to worry about throwing interception against the Jets because it's just not gonna happen.
1:21:00 Bill Simmons? Yeah, any, any turnover at all.
1:21:02 Speaker 01 Yeah, Trubisky's.
1:21:03 Bill Simmons? Breece Hall got his thousand yards.
1:21:05 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:21:05 Bill Simmons? The Jets need to get a top three pick. They'll probably rest everybody.
1:21:10 Speaker 01 Did you think if, uh, do you think the bill, the Jets and the Giants are now lumped in for every stat? Like their home record, like MetLife is just extraordinarily bad and they haven't had a winning team in however long. Do you think at this point they should be like, hey, I want you guys to start including Buffalo? When you talk about New York teams.
1:21:28 Bill Simmons? Right, to boost our numbers. Yeah.
1:21:30 Speaker 01 Yeah, it'll boost our numbers. It'll take the, take the attention away from us a little bit.
1:21:34 Bill Simmons? I think that's a really good idea.
1:21:35 Speaker 01 They should make a statement. Yeah.
1:21:36 Bill Simmons? I like that.
1:21:39 Bill Simmons? I can't imagine the Bills. I mean, this is a 10, if 10-point teaser, I'd feel good about the Bills in there unless they were starting to arrest people and just throwing it away, but we'll find out as we get closer. All right. NFC seeding on the line. Bears Lions, mentioned that earlier. They get the two seed with a win, the Bears. And it's in Chicago. I don't know what's going on with Detroit.
1:22:01 Bill Simmons? What would you put for odds on Dan Campbell on the Fox studio show next year?
1:22:05 Speaker 01 Oh.
1:22:05 Bill Simmons? I asked you like before 2030, but what about next year?
1:22:08 Speaker 01 No, the what? Next year is what? 2026?
1:22:12 Bill Simmons? Nine months from now.
1:22:12 Speaker 01 September? No, no, no.
1:22:14 Bill Simmons? They get rid of Bradshaw, there's Dan Campbell. They get rid of Gronk.
1:22:18 Speaker 01 One bite kneecaps, one, no, I would say that's still plus 1500.
1:22:24 Bill Simmons? Okay.
1:22:25 Speaker 01 He needs another year.
1:22:28 Bill Simmons? I love Gronk. He's the best tight end I've ever seen in my life and one of my four favorite Patriots. It's upsetting to me how Fox uses him and it really makes me mad.
1:22:36 Speaker 01 Why? What do you mean?
1:22:37 Bill Simmons? They use him like he's like the village idiot. Like they came, that halftime of the game, the, the game today, which is the only game I've ever watched and they go and he's standing on the second level and there's a table and Kurt Mettefe is like awkwardly standing next to this table and Gronk's like, at halftime, am I gonna jump through that table? And it's like, what is he, our drunk uncle at Christmas is like, oh, Uncle Gronk's gonna knock over the Christmas tree. Watch this. Like, this is a football studio show. He's the best tight end of all time. Why are you making him like a self parody? I love Gronk.
1:23:10 Speaker 01 Because.
1:23:10 Bill Simmons? Like, what are the producers doing with this?
1:23:13 Speaker 01 His predecessor is Terry Bradshaw, who's got like, he's got a pee.
1:23:17 Bill Simmons? So that's it? They're grooming him to be like the next person everyone makes fun of?
1:23:21 Speaker 01 Well, you can't.
1:23:22 Bill Simmons? I don't know. I think Gronk's podcast is good, the one with him and Edelman. Like, there's a lot more there. And then on that show, they make him seem like the, it's like, oh, he's like, he's like the fucking wacky neighbor in an 80s sitcom that comes over. It's like, oh, Gronk's here. Oh, he knocked over, he knocked over a plant. It's like, is he, like, how did he end up with this role on the show?
1:23:43 Speaker 01 I honestly think there's precedent and that he is groomed, Bradshaw's grooming him. That's how.
1:23:48 Bill Simmons? I mean, this is like. Best tight end of all time.
1:23:50 Speaker 01 You're like getting upset that Sammy Hagar screams during his songs. Like, yeah, this is what family had when that's what they did. That's what David Lee Roth did.
1:23:58 Bill Simmons? It's upset. He means a lot to me, Gronk. Just like, show Gronk some respect. Am I gonna jump through this table? That's coming up next. It's like, what are we doing? It's a network television show. Rams, oh, that'll, by the way, that'll be on a sports blog with like a really angry headline.
1:24:15 Speaker 01 Oh, no doubt.
1:24:16 Bill Simmons? Bill Simmons eviscerates Fox's use of Gronkowski.
1:24:19 Speaker 01 You wanna apologize now? You shouldn't be.
1:24:21 Bill Simmons? No, I'm not gonna apologize at all.
1:24:22 Speaker 01 You're not gonna do it?
1:24:23 Bill Simmons? I'm glad, I'm glad. Give the sports blogs their meat.
1:24:26 Speaker 01 Okay.
1:24:26 Bill Simmons? Just treat Gronk like he has an IQ over 80. Cause I'm, I'm pretty sure he does. His podcast is good. He's capable of conversations.
1:24:33 Speaker 01 Cause I think it rang in at 77.
1:24:36 Bill Simmons? Am I gonna jump through this table?
1:24:39 Bill Simmons? Rams cards.
1:24:41 Speaker 01 No, we didn't do Bears.
1:24:43 Bill Simmons? Oh, we, we still didn't do Bears?
1:24:44 Speaker 01 No.
1:24:44 Bill Simmons? Well, Gronk jumped through a table. I got distracted. I have the Bears by eight and a half.
1:24:50 Speaker 01 All right. So we're gonna have to talk about this because I said, I said six. And I'm staring at this line and the Bears are favored by one and a half.
1:25:01 Speaker 01 So did they, we, we
1:25:02 Bill Simmons? Lockdown number two?
1:25:03 Speaker 01 We must have read, misread something.
1:25:05 Bill Simmons? So we fucked up?
1:25:07 Speaker 01 We must have, right?
1:25:08 Bill Simmons? Well, wait a second.
1:25:09 Speaker 01 What's their record?
1:25:11 Bill Simmons? Oh, I know what it is.
1:25:13 Speaker 01 They did lock down two.
1:25:15 Bill Simmons? No? Well, cause they beat Philadelphia.
1:25:19 Speaker 01 I don't think, so the lose, so.
1:25:22 Bill Simmons? But Philadelphia and Chicago, the same record. So if they win and Philadelphia wins, it doesn't matter. They get the two seed.
1:25:27 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:25:28 Bill Simmons? But why wouldn't they want to win this game? Did one be the three seed?
1:25:32 Speaker 01 No, if they lose and Philly wins, they have the same record.
1:25:35 Bill Simmons? Philly's the two seed.
1:25:38 Speaker 01 Uh, we're gonna go through this one. So we, we used to be able to press pause.
1:25:41 Bill Simmons? Right now Philly's 11 and five.
1:25:43 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:25:43 Bill Simmons? And Chicago's 11 and five.
1:25:45 Speaker 01 Okay.
1:25:45 Bill Simmons? Chicago beat Philly. So they have the tiebreaker over them. But if they lose and Philly wins, Philly is in the two seed.
1:25:52 Speaker 01 I guess they don't care about the two seed. I mean, they are still playing a game.
1:25:59 Bill Simmons? That doesn't make sense. There, we gotta be missing. Can, how, can people in the chat, if we're missing something with that Bears game, please put that in the YouTube chat.
1:26:08 Speaker 01 No, I, you've read it right. They're both 11 and five. So if they lose a game to Philly, they're not gonna, they're gonna be a three seed.
1:26:14 Bill Simmons? Yeah, but why wouldn't they want to win and be the two seed? And Detroit's season is over.
1:26:19 Speaker 01 These teams just like to rest. It's just better to have a rest unless you have a shot at a one seed. That's just how it is now.
1:26:24 Bill Simmons? They'd rather be the three seed?
1:26:26 Speaker 01 So three.
1:26:27 Bill Simmons? So I mean, they would play the Rams. I'd rather play banged up Green Bay than the Rams.
1:26:33 Bill Simmons? Like 100 times out of 100.
1:26:35 Speaker 01 Tough to beat a team three times, bud. You're probably right.
1:26:39 Bill Simmons? Let's ask Rob Gronkowski, who's currently drinking Drano. Drano is our sponsor of the halftime show. Gronk, how's the Drano taste?
1:26:46 Speaker 01 Oh.
1:26:49 Bill Simmons? It's the best Titan of all time. Protect Gronk. Hashtag protect Gronk.
1:26:53 Speaker 01 Put them on, the ringer should do, put them on with Kellerman and Rich Paul. Let's do something.
1:26:57 Bill Simmons? That'd be, anything's better.
1:26:59 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:27:01 Bill Simmons? All right.
1:27:02 Speaker 01 That's crazy though. I, I would have thought it was like six. I mean, that is what I guessed, so.
1:27:08 Bill Simmons? Rams Cardinals.
1:27:12 Bill Simmons? It's in Los Angeles.
1:27:13 Speaker 01 Mm-hmm.
1:27:15 Bill Simmons? The Rams are basically locked into the six seed.
1:27:19 Bill Simmons? I still think they're going to be favored by seven and a half in this game.
1:27:23 Speaker 01 All right, I get this. I said eight and a half. It is nine and a half. Am I coming back here? Not really. Six for you. Six for you.
1:27:29 Bill Simmons? Coming back. You're coming nowhere.
1:27:33 Speaker 01 I mean, if they're gonna, if they're gonna maybe sit guys tomorrow, wouldn't they also maybe definitely sit guys week 18? That's, that's high. I know Arizona sucks.
1:27:42 Bill Simmons? So if you were the Rams, would you sit Puka and Stafford for the last two games and just get them ready? And anybody else you have who's banged up and just get them ready for round one? Cause as you mentioned earlier, they've done this.
1:27:55 Speaker 01 They have done it. They didn't do it two weeks before. They did it on week 18 last year. We saw Jimmy G out there. But I wouldn't do it because I would feel bad for everyone to put a teaser in on them, uh, like Tuesday or Wednesday. And wasn't thinking this through, like me.
1:28:14 Bill Simmons? I have the Rams in one, one Rams tomorrow and a thing that all the other pieces hit thinking that they were a lock. And now they might not care.
1:28:22 Speaker 01 It's not good.
1:28:24 Bill Simmons? Eagles home.
1:28:27 Bill Simmons? For, uh, for Washington Eagles locked into a three seed could get the two seed with the Chicago loss. And as I said earlier, I still feel like that two seed matters because you get to play Green Bay. Who's missing everybody. I have Eagles by 10 and a half.
1:28:40 Speaker 01 Uh, I get this. I said six. It's seven and a half. See, we're all over the place here.
1:28:47 Bill Simmons? Why is it seven and a half? Are they, are they think they're gonna arrest people?
1:28:51 Speaker 01 This is Josh.
1:28:52 Bill Simmons? Washington has Josh Johnson.
1:28:53 Speaker 01 It's such a stupid guessing game. This is the hardest week.
1:29:00 Bill Simmons? So we have five games left. What's the score? If you come back, I'm gonna be so fucking mad.
1:29:04 Speaker 01 You're up six, five.
1:29:04 Bill Simmons? You roped it up me. You said I was gonna win.
1:29:07 Speaker 01 Well, I think you got all out of sorts with this Gronk thing.
1:29:11 Bill Simmons? Gronk, Gronk sent me in a tailspin.
1:29:17 Bill Simmons? This game means absolutely nothing. Packers, Vikings, and yet Green Bay is the seventh seed either way.
1:29:22 Speaker 01 I'm off by three points, so you could steal this one easily.
1:29:25 Bill Simmons? I went low. It's in Minnesota.
1:29:29 Bill Simmons? And I did Packers minus two and a half in Minnesota.
1:29:31 Speaker 01 Packers minus two and a half?
1:29:33 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:29:34 Speaker 01 I said Vikings minus two and a half. It's Vikings minus five and a half. Oh, you're gonna lose your shit.
1:29:42 Bill Simmons? What in the hell?
1:29:44 Speaker 01 I mean, they're definitely sitting people, right? I mean, that's not, we're gonna see guys who
1:29:48 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I didn't factor that in.
1:29:49 Speaker 01 We're gonna see some like milk farmers or something from Wisconsin.
1:29:52 Bill Simmons? Well, what do the Vikings have to play for?
1:29:55 Speaker 01 Uh, you know,
1:29:56 Bill Simmons? Who backs Brosmer?
1:29:57 Speaker 01 Bro, I mean, think about what Brosmer and Jalen Hurts did. Like, they, they had almost negative yards passing combined. And they just, uh, and they both won.
1:30:10 Bill Simmons? Wow, okay. Next category, four games left. Top three draft pick on the line. First one, Chiefs at Raiders.
1:30:23 Bill Simmons? Chiefs at Raiders.
1:30:25 Speaker 01 I was off by a point.
1:30:25 Bill Simmons? We just saw what the Raiders are capable of this week.
1:30:28 Speaker 01 Yep.
1:30:29 Bill Simmons? It's in Las Vegas. I wanted to put this in the Vegas zone in honor of the Raiders, but I had to bump it up a point. I did Chiefs minus six and a half.
1:30:36 Speaker 01 Well done. I had five and a half. It is six and a half, exactly.
1:30:40 Bill Simmons? Hmm.
1:30:43 Speaker 01 Not touching it.
1:30:44 Bill Simmons? Can't cheese the, tease the Chiefs.
1:30:47 Speaker 01 No way.
1:30:47 Bill Simmons? Because their quarterback is Michael O'Leary, whatever his name is.
1:30:52 Bill Simmons? Can't put it in there.
1:30:52 Speaker 01 First round pick, his number one back. I, uh, yeah, I get that the Raiders know the assignment, but is Chris Oladokun gonna, gonna play ball?
1:31:02 Bill Simmons? Next one's a little harder. Cowboys at the Giants. Giants won today. Screwed up their chance at the number one pick, and now will be somewhere in the top five. Cowboys, you don't have your pick, right?
1:31:14 Speaker 01 Oh.
1:31:16 Bill Simmons? You don't have your pick.
1:31:16 Speaker 01 We're doing all right.
1:31:18 Bill Simmons? But you don't have your pick, but you have the Packers pick.
1:31:20 Speaker 01 Right, yeah.
1:31:21 Bill Simmons? You get the worst one of those two.
1:31:24 Speaker 01 That is what happened, yeah.
1:31:25 Bill Simmons? Of Cowboys minus seven and a half is my guess for this.
1:31:28 Speaker 01 All right, I get this. I said six and a half. It is currently five and a half.
1:31:31 Bill Simmons? Yeah, Vegas zone.
1:31:34 Bill Simmons? Okay. Last one Bengals. Who are just peeking at the right time here. Um, home for the Browns.
1:31:43 Speaker 01 Mm hmm.
1:31:45 Bill Simmons? I have the Bengals by seven and a half.
1:31:47 Speaker 01 We split it. I said six and a half. It is seven.
1:31:50 Bill Simmons? All right. So one game left. What's the score?
1:31:52 Speaker 01 Hold on, hold on, hold on. Five, six, seven, eight, one, two, three, four.
1:31:56 Bill Simmons? Fucking rope it up.
1:31:57 Speaker 01 They get tied. Six, seven, eight.
1:32:00 Bill Simmons? God damn it.
1:32:01 Speaker 01 Seven, I swear it's tied. But is there one game left?
1:32:03 Bill Simmons? Yeah, there's one. Falcons, Saints.
1:32:05 Speaker 01 I'm off by two points.
1:32:07 Bill Simmons? Falcons, Saints in Atlanta.
1:32:09 Speaker 01 You're gonna steal it.
1:32:12 Bill Simmons? Falcons, Saints in Atlanta.
1:32:13 Speaker 01 Mm hmm.
1:32:14 Bill Simmons? Saints showing signs of life lately. I have the Falcons by three.
1:32:20 Speaker 01 Yeah, congratulations. It's two and a half. I said it's two and a half. I said four and a half. Oh, that sucks. That's all I kind of came back for nothing. By the way, we have a lot of money. Me, you, House, Hench, bet. The Saints to come in last place. We have to really give it like 20 minutes thoughts of how we're gonna hedge out of this. I mean, certainly they are.
1:32:42 Bill Simmons? Win one of the next two, we're good. Right?
1:32:44 Speaker 01 That is. Let's see. Wait, where are, where are they? They're.
1:32:48 Bill Simmons? Falcons are one ahead of the Saints.
1:32:50 Speaker 01 No, so they're six and nine. So if they win, they're seven and nine tomorrow. Saints are six and 10. If they both end up seven and 10.
1:32:57 Bill Simmons? Same record. They've six, both have six wins.
1:32:59 Speaker 01 Six wins, yeah.
1:33:00 Bill Simmons? Ah, so we're gonna have to hedge this. How is this even, we should have won this 40 times over.
1:33:06 Speaker 01 They were gonna have the number one pick. Could he win?
1:33:09 Bill Simmons? So what do we have? We have Cleveland, Tennessee, and the Saints, right? Just those three.
1:33:13 Speaker 01 Yeah, just those three. And the Jets, maybe?
1:33:16 Bill Simmons? The only thing that could stop us was Tyler Shuck.
1:33:19 Speaker 01 Oh, yeah.
1:33:20 Bill Simmons? In probably getting the job and then playing so well that he's now one of the favorites to win the offensive rookie of the year. And that's exactly what happened.
1:33:27 Speaker 01 He beat everyone in that division. Sick man.
1:33:30 Bill Simmons? I lost some crazy future. I was, I thought I was like gonna win 75% of my futures that I made before the year. Today I lost. The Browns, I had, I had three and a half wins under, which was plus 200. Lost that one. Um, I had the Miami Dolphins under six and a half wins. That was like plus 185.
1:33:53 Bill Simmons? And what were they, one and eight? Or it seemed like that was a lot.
1:33:57 Speaker 01 They just played a bunch of cupcakes like six in a row.
1:33:59 Bill Simmons? Stupid shit like that.
1:34:00 Speaker 01 Yeah. What are you gonna do? We're excited when it's August. You gotta fire away.
1:34:06 Bill Simmons? This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes. Yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association Member, FTIC. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun?
1:34:50 Bill Simmons? Sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead. But what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully your team doesn't go to Cancun. One, two, three Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save, savings vary. Parent Corner, presented by Greenland 2 Migration. Saw an ad for this during football. If you loved the disaster hip film in 2020, the end of the world was only the beginning, apparently. Gerard Butler, Monera Bakarin. They're back for the sequel. Oh, no, it's, I called it Mar, it's Marina Bakarin.
1:35:35 Speaker 01 All right.
1:35:35 Bill Simmons? Marina Bakarin.
1:35:37 Speaker 01 You're dumber than Gronk. You can't even say words.
1:35:40 Bill Simmons? For the sequel. More on that later about Greenland 2 Migration. Uh, we're gonna do Parent Corner, though. What do you got?
1:35:46 Speaker 01 Uh, all right. So, I mean, Christmas, great. Everyone's home together. Got the tree going, the gifts. Beautiful, it's fun. My son, Jack, my middle son, gave me the best gift a father could ever receive. We were scheduled, um, he had a wrestling tournament Friday, December 26th. Way-ins were at 7:00 a.m. in Upland, California, which is a good hour and a half drive. At 5:30 in the morning, you could get there probably an hour and 20 minutes. So I was gonna have to be up on December 26th at 5:30 to take him to a tournament. And then he was gonna, the rest of the tournament didn't even start till 11. So I was gonna have to sit in my car and bet like EP, English Premier Soccer.
1:36:28 Speaker 01 Christmas Eve, wrestling practice, he throws up in front of the coach and three other kids throw up.
1:36:35 Bill Simmons? This is like the fourth throw up story with Jack we've had on Paracorner.
1:36:39 Speaker 01 Oh, he's so good at vomiting and the coach is like, see you Monday. It's like, you did it, buddy. You did it. What do you want? Do you want a, do you want a pony? Whatever you want for Christmas, I'll get it for you. God bless you.
1:36:53 Bill Simmons? And so the poison Cheez-Its you gave him that had like the stuff, the XLAC stuff to make him throw up?
1:36:58 Speaker 01 Whatever it was, that was it. Yeah. And now he's not eating bread or pizza. No, that's you. But so that was.
1:37:05 Bill Simmons? What a miracle for you.
1:37:07 Speaker 01 Really great.
1:37:07 Bill Simmons? Really was a Christmas miracle.
1:37:09 Speaker 01 I can't thank him enough, honestly. I was, I was so relieved to not have to get up at 5:30 in the morning. I have another one. So fantasy football is just awful, right? I'm in a high stakes league and I'm in the finals. So second place is nice prize, but first place is a ridiculous haul.
1:37:28 Bill Simmons? You did some texting about this.
1:37:29 Speaker 01 Yes. And I have a decision to make. And going into Saturday, and it's basically Christian Watson or Alec Pierce, right?
1:37:38 Bill Simmons? And so have you checked the history of this? Whenever somebody has a 50 50 decision like this, they lose 100% of the time with who they picked.
1:37:45 Speaker 01 Is that, is that?
1:37:46 Bill Simmons? There's actually no, I researched this. Nobody ever has the positive story of they picked the right person. It's always the wrong person.
1:37:52 Speaker 01 Didn't break the streak this time. So I, I'm thinking, all right, Malik Willis, Christian Watson.
1:37:58 Bill Simmons? Watson had the red flag.
1:37:59 Speaker 01 He had the red flag. Everything's pointing against it. Alec Pierce had two touchdowns last Monday. Crazy. You figure Philip Rivers loves him. He's in sync. So I asked, I asked you and Hench, I asked my buddies, Brian and Darren, I asked my buddy Alec. It was named Alec and still didn't say. So I said, everybody says Watson. And my son Archie, I'm like, Archie, I'm gonna let you be the deciding factor. And he's like, uh. Actually, everyone said Pierce. I'm sorry. So I said, I'm gonna let you be the deciding factor. He's like, start Pierce, pick up Barner. He's looking through the things like pick up the tight end in Seattle in case something happens to Pierce in the morning. I'm like, all right, that's a good idea. So I take Watson out, fricking goes nuts immediately. Their first touchdown, Malik Willis is like thrown to him like they were college roommates.
1:38:43 Speaker 01 It was so in tune. Like, it's insane. He puts up 23 points and I'm losing my mind. Like, I come downstairs and I'm like pacing and everything and Archie's like, huh, Watson, huh? And I was like, yes, motherfucker. I'm like cursing under my back. It's like, and then Watson will catch the pass and he goes like goes to high five me. I'm like, what the fuck are you doing?
1:39:02 Bill Simmons? He's talking to you?
1:39:03 Speaker 01 He's like, I was like, well, this is not, this is not, you know, like, you're gonna just stay in your used corolla ter cell. Like, if, if he's like, what? You put Watson in the lineup? I'm like, no, I didn't. And a lot because of you. I said, Pierce and like, and we picked up Barner. Remember all that? He's like, oh, yeah, I didn't. Okay. I didn't hear you right. I was like, yeah, you certainly didn't. He's like, oh, calm down.
1:39:27 Bill Simmons? Now you're fighting.
1:39:28 Speaker 01 Now we're like arguing over this. And so I'm getting mad. I'm like, whatever. I end up losing by 60. So that's good. I'm not gonna lose any sleep over this. But I don't think anyone should ever play fantasy for anything more than pride. I just don't like, because now Archie and I will never be the same.
1:39:47 Bill Simmons? Right. You can't come back from that.
1:39:49 Speaker 01 That was it. We're never gonna be the same because of sister Christian Watson. That's it. So I don't even know what the moral is, but fantasy could really.
1:39:57 Bill Simmons? Don't play fantasy?
1:39:58 Speaker 01 Don't play fantasy.
1:39:59 Bill Simmons? I had that last week with CJ Stroud just single handling murdering my season. And then I'm watching the Chargers game yesterday and he's just immediately two 70 yard bombs to start the game or whatever happened. I'm like, of course, why do we do this?
1:40:10 Speaker 01 But you're right. There should be sharp and square picks. Like what you, what everybody would go with is the square pick. So I should have started Watson.
1:40:17 Bill Simmons? Just zag.
1:40:18 Speaker 01 Yeah, he's got the red flag.
1:40:19 Bill Simmons? Well, in our knockout league, it looks like our friend Kohears, the mooc.
1:40:23 Speaker 01 Good job.
1:40:24 Bill Simmons? Is gonna win the league with McCaffrey, as we mentioned earlier. He's had, this will be his fourth title since I won my last title in 2007. And we, we still use this dumb CBS site and it has all the champs.
1:40:37 Speaker 01 Right.
1:40:38 Bill Simmons? Dating back to whenever you started the league, even before I was in it, before I moved to LA.
1:40:43 Speaker 01 Right.
1:40:43 Bill Simmons? And this is how sad it's become for fantasy for me. And by the way, I won our guillotine league. I've won the league I'm in with my college and high school buddies with like, I I've hit that, but somehow can't get over the hump. I went back and I looked at my 2017. Like I was looking through an old photo album. Yeah, I went through it. I'm like, oh, man, Tomlinson, Peterson. Oh, Carson Palmer was so good. They had Romo was on the team. Wes Walker. I'm just going through. I'm like, ah, that was such a great year.
1:41:16 Speaker 01 You should have a reunion. 19 years coming up, 18 years.
1:41:20 Bill Simmons? 18 years ago, I'm there on the fucking site. Anyway, congrats to the mooc. He's won four times.
1:41:26 Speaker 01 You should win it once in a while.
1:41:28 Bill Simmons? You'd think I would win once in a while. I'm good in all the other leagues.
1:41:31 Speaker 01 I know.
1:41:33 Bill Simmons? My parent corner.
1:41:36 Bill Simmons? So Christmas night, my kids are excited. And by the way, my kids are barely kids anymore. Like my daughter's gonna be 21 in May and my my son's 18. All the Christmas, they just want to race through it because of Netflix is releasing the next three episodes of Stranger Things. All they care about.
1:41:52 Speaker 01 I love that you're on TV Chris Christmas, but they're.
1:41:56 Bill Simmons? Never even came over the TV for that. No, couldn't have cared less. Stranger Things is coming, so we set the dinner so that we can finish and everybody can get out of the house by, you know, like, I don't know, six o'clock and then they're going to watch Stranger Things. And it's going head to head against the NBA. It's like the end of the second to last game and then Denver, Minnesota, which I was excited about. But I have the setup where we have the big TV and then I have the two side TVs. So I could watch Denver, Minnesota. I'm like, it's Christmas, I'm gonna hang out with my kids. I'll watch Stranger Things with them, which I think was almost four hours. Cause the episodes were longer than an hour. So it's episode five, six, seven, but somehow not the eighth.
1:42:39 Bill Simmons? I've never seen the show, other than like the first episode, six years ago. I have no idea what's going on with any of it. I've just completely out. I don't know anything. And I'm just watching the show, but I'm really watching the basketball, which turns out to be this incredible game. Jokic has like a 55, 15, 16. It goes into overtime. Edwards is a crazy shot and they're watching Stranger Things.
1:43:00 Bill Simmons? This just seems like the dumbest show. I, I, I can't believe this is a phenomenon. But the reason it seemed dumb to me was because I didn't understand any of it.
1:43:07 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:43:08 Bill Simmons? They're so far advanced and it's like, and their kids are explaining it to me like, no, no, only 11 and the other person. They're the only two people that can go back and forth between the worlds and this person can't.
1:43:18 Speaker 01 Upside down.
1:43:19 Bill Simmons? They think they can. There's an upside down. And then there was like the end of the fifth episode, they're going nuts because something, and I'm just watching it. And I, I didn't know anything that was happening. I was like, this must be what happened when people watch sports with us. And they don't know anything that's going on. Like, we're watching football and we're going nuts on every play and oh my God, and, and whoever's sitting there, they don't care about the NFL. And they're kind of annoyed that we're that into it. So it flipped on me on Christmas.
1:43:47 Speaker 01 Interesting.
1:43:48 Bill Simmons? I was just kind of annoyed by stranger things. I was excited to see Winona Ryder. You know, she meant a lot to us once upon a time. Lynda Hamilton came in at some point from Terminator. She was playing a bad person. Um, other than that, like if you quiz me on what happened, I don't think I'd be able to answer three questions.
1:44:05 Speaker 01 You can't jump into something like that. That's not like Landman or something. That, there's so many twists and turns and stuff like, but that specifically, yeah.
1:44:13 Bill Simmons? It was, it is so far down the rabbit hole of, for people who watch the show, it is completely inaccessible to people like us.
1:44:20 Speaker 01 Oh, right.
1:44:21 Bill Simmons? I had no idea what was happening.
1:44:22 Speaker 01 No, I had to quit.
1:44:23 Bill Simmons? I'll tell you this, my kids were fired up and excited for four hours.
1:44:26 Speaker 01 They, they thought it panned out, it played out.
1:44:29 Bill Simmons? They were mad at the end of the seventh episode that it was, that obviously there's one more coming on New Year's Eve.
1:44:37 Speaker 01 I see. Okay.
1:44:38 Bill Simmons? But they were like, ah, now we have to wait. It was like one of those.
1:44:41 Speaker 01 What are you gonna do New Year's Eve? You're gonna have to watch, uh, Ohio State play. What was it? Yeah, it's Ohio State Miami while watching the finale.
1:44:48 Bill Simmons? There's a couple, and probably some good basketball too. Uh, need to say, I didn't get sucked in. And I feel like now I know what happens for the most part. I don't want to spoil it for people who haven't seen it yet.
1:44:58 Speaker 01 Yeah, it hurt my head. I, I had to quit because it was, first of all, it was very long, like to, to knock through a season four, what, three, whatever it was, was very long. But people do love it.
1:45:08 Bill Simmons? The big winner of the show seems to be Kate Bush, because they keep playing that song she has.
1:45:13 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:45:14 Bill Simmons? And they actually weave it into the plot. So like, she must be delighted that that happened. But anyway, parent corner, I tried. I tried to, uh, I tried to get into it for my kids. It just didn't work. Today's parent corner presented by Greenland to my migration. Where were we? That's right. The sequel. Five years after a comet strike devastated most of the earth, the Garrity family leaving the safety of their bunker in Greenland in search of a new home. We'll see. We'll see what happens to them. A disaster film and my guy Gerard freaking Butler, my guy from Dennis thieves. What else do you need? Greenland to migration in theaters January 9th rated PG 13. I have a quick NBA thing for you.
1:45:56 Speaker 01 Go ahead. And just so people know, this is why I just said, and I nod and um, I can't contribute more and I furiously.
1:46:03 Bill Simmons? Yeah, but you still, you're on our gambling shows.
1:46:05 Speaker 01 Of course, I love it. I'm just, no, I'm not.
1:46:07 Bill Simmons? The Warriors had a really bad, Warriors had a bad loss today in Toronto, like a bad one. They controlled the whole game.
1:46:16 Bill Simmons? I actually had it on because we only had two NFL games. So I was watching it and they just couldn't close and they just kind of looked broken. I don't know what the fix is. It's no matter how good Steph is, they can't fix it.
1:46:27 Speaker 01 Right.
1:46:28 Bill Simmons? Toronto wins in OT. They've just seemed like they've taken whatever iteration is as far as I can go. Then you see the Lakers. I think they're three and six since LeBron came back. He's kind of screwed up their team. Nobody wants to admit it, but it kind of has. Now they have these, now Reeves is out for a month. The team just is like Reddick is, seems like he's not handling things great. And I was just thinking like, let's, how do you make the league more fun? You have a team that nobody's excited about with the Lakers and a team that feels dead with the Warriors. LeBron for Jimmy Butler.
1:47:01 Speaker 01 Oh, okay.
1:47:02 Bill Simmons? That's it. And I, I looked it up because Bronny probably has to be in it too. And the, the Warriors can throw in Will Richard. I, I sent this to a couple of people, including Zach, who got excited about it. Zach Lowe. But uh, it just, it feels like a for good, for the good of the sport trade. Just more fun. The Warriors are not fun. I don't see a scenario where they become from, but now you put LeBron on the team with Curry, LeBron reinvigorated and who knows? And then Butler is probably a better fit with LeBron and Reeves anyway, with Luca and Reeves anyway.
1:47:37 Speaker 01 Who's more likely to say no to that? Golden State?
1:47:40 Bill Simmons? I don't know. That's why, oh, I think Golden State would probably do that.
1:47:43 Speaker 01 You think so?
1:47:44 Bill Simmons? Cause LeBron is an expiring contract in the year. Maybe they throw him one more year. It's a good who says no though.
1:47:50 Speaker 01 Hmm.
1:47:51 Bill Simmons? Cause if you're the Lakers, you can lock in the Butler contract for an extra year because all they care about is two years from now. But maybe Butler's a better fit with what they have anyway. Cause LeBron doesn't really seem like he wants to be on the Lakers is my, my take.
1:48:06 Speaker 01 And then Bronny has to come over. Does Jimmy Butler's son have to, they do like this, Timmy Butler? He also has to be involved?
1:48:13 Bill Simmons? Jimmy Butler has any sons, they also have to be in the trade.
1:48:15 Speaker 01 Okay. I think that works.
1:48:17 Bill Simmons? That was my idea.
1:48:18 Speaker 01 I like that.
1:48:18 Bill Simmons? That's all I got for you.
1:48:19 Speaker 01 Why couldn't you tell me not to bounce back with the Spurs, not bounce back because they had beaten the, the Thunder on Christmas? But I stupidly took them on a money line parlay against, what was it?
1:48:30 Bill Simmons? Jazz was the most obvious loss possible.
1:48:32 Speaker 01 Shut up. That was ridiculous.
1:48:34 Bill Simmons? You know what was another one? And I would never bet against the Celtics, but there, this road trip where it's like, they're only playing under 500 teams. Like they keep, and it was like the Portland spot was so dangerous tonight. And of course they lost in the last two minutes.
1:48:48 Speaker 01 I'm hearing.
1:48:48 Bill Simmons? And now they're playing the Clippers who are coming, coming on and.
1:48:53 Speaker 01 They're like four bad teams that are playing well now, right? Clippers, the Jazz, the Wizards won, the House's Wizards won back to back.
1:48:59 Bill Simmons? Wizards are playing well.
1:49:00 Speaker 01 The Nets are playing well.
1:49:01 Bill Simmons? Yeah, the Nets.
1:49:02 Speaker 01 Stupid Hornets.
1:49:03 Bill Simmons? Porter's playing so well for the Nets that they're going to have to like emergency trade him, it looks like.
1:49:08 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:49:09 Bill Simmons? Like they're going to have to like move in the next two weeks before he completely screws up their chance to get a top three pick. There's a lot of teams that are not happy about.
1:49:17 Bill Simmons? About their team right now, including the Warriors and the Lakers, which is why I thought of it. Anything else before we go?
1:49:21 Speaker 01 That's it. We're gonna be on, uh, mom with Tate Tuesday and then, uh, Friday. Got a lot of college football to talk and, uh, it's a good, good time of year. Lots of fun.
1:49:30 Bill Simmons? All right. Well, we're on, our last live show on YouTube is gonna be, um, next week.
1:49:36 Speaker 01 Oh, right.
1:49:37 Bill Simmons? After, uh, week 18, after the NFC West one seed showdown, we'll be live and then, uh, starting on the January 11th, Sunday, coming off three NFL games, uh, we'll be live on Netflix for that one.
1:49:51 Speaker 01 And then.
1:49:52 Bill Simmons? And you'll also be able to get it on Spotify, by the way. It is not exclusively on Netflix. You will also be able to watch on Spotify. We're on Netflix and Spotify.
1:50:00 Speaker 01 They cut the biggest check. Don't be stupid here. Yeah, no, they, uh, and then in three weeks from then, we're on Tubi. I don't know how this works out. This is.
1:50:07 Bill Simmons? Tubi, yeah, that, those are the classic episodes with us. This is from, from years past where we're flipping out about terrible bets.
1:50:14 Speaker 01 You'll get to see Simmons 2007 fantasy team highlight.
1:50:17 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:50:18 Speaker 01 Video yearbook.
1:50:19 Bill Simmons? It's like one week I'm eating gluten and next week I'm not. I'm drinking water and honey.
1:50:24 Speaker 01 What the hell? What happened?
1:50:25 Bill Simmons? Yeah. Well, I'm psyched that I beat Pam Bondi, uh, cause it was a very strange year for a lot of different reasons, but, um, in a lot of ways, I'm glad we're at the end of it. I'm excited for 2026. As always, good job by you.
1:50:37 Speaker 01 Good job by you, buddy.
1:50:39 Bill Simmons? Thanks to Gahal. Thanks to Eduardo as well. I'm gonna see you on Tuesday on this feed and then, uh, special episode of the rewatchables tomorrow as well. Bye, Sal.
1:50:47 Speaker 01 See you, bud.
1:51:02 Bill Simmons? Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-797777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8HOPENY or text HOPENY in New York. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures, WildHorse9, John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell. I like those guys. Star in the sharp-witted comedy thriller from Academy Award winner.
1:51:46 Bill Simmons? Martin McDonagh, writer-director of The Banshees of Minnehoshan and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island. Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys, Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9, only in theaters November 6. Get tickets now. This episode is brought to you by Whole Foods Market. Fall is here and Whole Foods Market has everything you need for cozy meals, seasonal treats and easy entertaining. Elevate your hearty dishes with tasty bone-in beef short ribs
1:52:31 Bill Simmons? or New York strip steaks with no added growth hormones or antibiotics. And as the fall evenings draw in, why not get ahead of cold season with immunity shots, herbal teas, lasages and supplements? Make sure you look for sales throughout the month. Shop fall flavors with higher standards at Whole Foods Market.
Previous Most Surprising NBA Player Leaps With Tim Legler, Plus NFL Holiday Picks With Joe House Next An NBA Holiday Mailbag and the Jokic Scare With Rob Mahoney Page updated October 31, 2026 · transcript and summary are machine-generated