A Seahawks-Rams WTF Classic, an NBA Six-Pack, and Week 16 NFL Picks With Peter Schrager

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Peter Schrager to react to the wild 'TNF' game between the Seahawks and Rams that went to OT before making their Ringer 107 picks for the week (2:00). Then, Bill cracks open a six-pack of buzz-worthy NBA topics including the Clippers, the Christmas matchups, and more! (58:14) Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Peter Schrager Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more at https://linkedin.com/simmonsbill This episode is sponsored by State Farm®. Don’t settle for just any insurance when there’s State Farm. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat, or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what. You're gonna want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn, or spooky season, whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs, or the weather's fault, you're gonna want WeatherTech for American-made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather. Visit weatherTech.com today.

• 0:29Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a new rewatchables on Wednesday and on Monday. I did two this week. We did The Sure Thing to Pay Tribute to Rob Reiner on Wednesday, me and Chris Ryan. I love that movie. You can find it, it's on YouTube, spoiler. Not streaming anywhere. Hopefully Hollywood will figure out a way to get it to stream. We did High Fidelity on Monday. So two really good ones. And we have a really good documentary in the Music Box series on HBO. Counting Crows, Have You Seen Me Lately? It's up right now on HBO Max. Watch it whenever you want. You can also watch the one about Wizkid or the one about Jeff Buckley. We have three so far. So check all of them out. I made Peter Schreger stay up late to talk about an incredible,

• 1:13Bill Simmons?

  we say that word too much, but an incredible Rams Seahawks game. We're gonna react off that. We do Ringer 107 picks. And then I opened a six-pack for the NBA. Had some thoughts, had some more NBA thoughts. So this is a fun podcast. We're gonna take a break, Pearl Jam, and then Peter Schrager. This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting a linebacker on the football field, but getting a line cook. Sure, they both can handle the pressure when it starts heating up, but only one is stopping a touchdown. You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team. So don't settle for just any insurance when it comes to getting help you need. State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

• 2:24Bill Simmons?

  All right. It is 8:54 Pacific time. Peter Schrager said a couple of days ago, "Not only do I want to come on Thursday's pod, I want to come on after Rams Seahawks." And I'm like, "You're sure? You're in the East Coast. You sure you want to do this? You're working all day at ESPN?" He said, "No, I want to do it." And then we have a four-hour game. It goes into overtime. The Seahawks win on a two-point. It was the most dramatic, probably important Thursday night game, at least of this decade. Swings the NFC West, swings the one seed. The Rams, I don't even feel like they're in disgrace. They did everything they could. They had almost 600 yards. They had the ball almost 44 minutes.

• 3:06Bill Simmons?

  And the Seahawks win the game for a variety of reasons, some good, some dumb. Has there ever been a better Thursday night game than that?

• 3:14Speaker 01

  I don't know. I'm trying to think. They had another good Thursday night game a few years back where Tyler Lockett had an incredible catch in the back of the end zone in the first half. Bill, that was so fun. It was so fun. It's like we were both texting throughout and Amazon did that amazing thing that we love, and I know Cousin Sal mentions, you know, the Rams, they have a 97% chance win probability on this one. Don't want to see that stat ever again, guys. It doesn't matter. I don't care. I don't care about the win probability.

• 3:44Bill Simmons?

  I know.

• 3:44Speaker 01

  We were writing, I mean, if we were back in the day when we used to read newspapers, like I could imagine the press box, the ink being dry on the Sam Darnold, you know, article that just can't win a big game, always shits the bed when it matters, pees down his leg, the whole thing, the two interceptions.

• 4:02Bill Simmons?

  Check out my iPad. All the times I deleted the topics I had for us. It was like, "Can they play Sam Darnold next week?" I had that like written down in the third quarter.

• 4:12Speaker 01

  He was amazing down the stretch and he made all the plays. That was so fun.

• 4:20Bill Simmons?

  But what was weird is they didn't trust him. I thought down the stretch, especially late in the, in the fourth quarter, they were being very careful about how much they wanted to put in his hands, where it was like, "We could also just take this to OT." But then when it's 37-30 and they actually needed him to go down the field, that was the best stretch of the game he had.

• 4:41Speaker 01

  They threw the ball six times in the first half. JSN had zero yards, one target. They just handed the ball to Charbonne and Kenneth Walker every play. And it's like, oh, they want to win 13-10. Well, that's not going to do it. Then he stinks it up in the third quarter.

• 4:56Bill Simmons?

  Well, he has two of the worst picks. It was like he had one bad pick and then the next one was even worse. Felt like he was a pick six waiting to happen.

• 5:04Speaker 01

  And like, again, sports writer, it's already done. It's sent to the editor and it's one of those, all right, I'm getting the, I'm getting the elevator down and we're gonna go talk in the locker room, but I've got everything filled out. I just need to fill in the quotes and we'll get that at the podium and then some stuff at the locker. But the article's been written that the Seahawks have a major problem. And this guy is this generation's, you fill it in, whoever it is, who couldn't win the big game. Warren Moon, whoever it was, like in the 80s, 90s, whatever.

• 5:31Bill Simmons?

  It's like insulting to Warren Moon.

• 5:33Speaker 01

  I'm just saying, you know.

• 5:34Bill Simmons?

  I was sitting next to my daughter and she just came, my daughter's from from college. She doesn't care about football. She came down, she was on her phone, just sitting next to me watching the game. And I was getting so mad at the Seahawks. Cause I have them to win the NFC West, like I might've had some money on them. I'm rooting against Cooper Cup for fantasy. And she finally just got up and left. She was like, you're a psycho. I'm like, why, why do you even watch football when it makes you this crazy? I'm like, you don't understand. Sam Darnold always does this when the game actually matters. This is who he is. I couldn't, I couldn't handle it. And then he redeems himself in an hour.

• 6:06Speaker 01

  I was trying to think of a great, I know, and Warren Moon is probably at the Hall of Fame quarterback that won a lot of big games. I'm trying to think of a guy though.

• 6:13Bill Simmons?

  I never trusted him.

• 6:14Speaker 01

  But who didn't have the big playoff win, you know, and that would be Moon. But I guess in basketball, Harden is kind of the equivalent, but these, Darnold's not at that level. Those are Hall of Fame guys.

• 6:23Bill Simmons?

  But he had the last Rams game too, combined with this one, where it's like, this is the team you need to beat.

• 6:29Speaker 01

  And the playoff game last year.

• 6:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 6:31Speaker 01

  Where he was sacked nine times and looked and he's going to have two back to back 14 and three seasons. I mean,

• 6:37Bill Simmons?

  I can't believe it.

• 6:38Speaker 01

  This guy, that was unbelievable. That was unbelievable. And Rams defense played well for 55 minutes of the game. They played great. They were up and then you add in.

• 6:49Bill Simmons?

  Ran out of some gas.

• 6:50Speaker 01

  Every classic game needs to have a bizarre play. The two point conversion, that was a backward pass that Charbonne picks up and suddenly counts for two. And we're all.

• 6:58Bill Simmons?

  Well, wait, let's go backwards. He throws a pick, it's 30 14.

• 7:02Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 7:02Bill Simmons?

  So we already, and we're in the fourth quarter and we're in two touchdowns and two two points just to send it to overtime range. Shaheed, who they feel like they just keep in the garage and just take them out on Sundays. Even in some of the biggest plays of this game, like his speed on the field, like if I'm the Rams, every time he's out in the field, I'm terrified. He was barely playing, but he has that huge punt return. They get a two, all of a sudden it's 30 22. Oh, get a stop.

• 7:32Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 7:32Bill Simmons?

  All of a sudden they're coming back down. Oh, and then the two point and they blow it and they run the worst two point play. I didn't know what the fuck it was.

• 7:39Speaker 01

  What was it?

• 7:40Bill Simmons?

  They literally hit a screen pass that hits the other team in the helmet. And then all of a sudden they're reviewing it. I've never seen that before.

• 7:47Speaker 01

  Never?

• 7:48Bill Simmons?

  Have you?

• 7:48Speaker 01

  No.

• 7:48Bill Simmons?

  A backward pass that rolls into the end zone. Why did Zach Charbonne even pick it up?

• 7:52Speaker 01

  What?

• 7:52Bill Simmons?

  Herb Street's praising him. It's like, that's good awareness by Herb Street.

• 7:55Speaker 01

  He was just picking it up.

• 7:56Bill Simmons?

  He was bored. He was picking the ball up.

• 7:58Speaker 01

  What, what did McCauley say? Cause I, I mean, I'm trying to remember, like, was there an explanation? I guess it makes sense, but on a fourth down, if that were to happen, is that, is that a, are you allowed to like gain yards? Or is it just on a two point conversion? It was bizarre and then I guess it counts.

• 8:13Bill Simmons?

  Well, no, and I think, isn't the rule, you can't advance like a fumble for a touchdown in the last two minutes. But a two point, it's cool. Yeah. Well, you look at, so the Rams had five possessions in the fourth quarter. They somehow couldn't close the game.

• 8:29Speaker 01

  But Bill, we were texting. They got conservative.

• 8:32Bill Simmons?

  They did. They got a little tight.

• 8:34Speaker 01

  First half, we're texting, you're like, gosh, McVay's going for everything. Four fourth down attempts, they go for it. The most he's ever done in a game. He all did it in the first half and then. Fourth quarter, it seemed like they got a little bit. All right, let's kick the ball, let's punt the ball, let's kick the field goal. They missed the field goal after we heard how this guy hadn't missed a kick his entire time as a Ram, of course, misses the field goal. I, I mean, if your listeners are listening and it's already Friday or Saturday, you're like, wait, this happened, this happened. We are fresh off this thing, so I'm just trying to rack it through in my brain and I'm still in shock because it was so fun. Like, I love football games that are crazy. That was a crazy game.

• 9:12Bill Simmons?

  It was the craziest game of the year. The Rams had, and just in the, in the, in the four quarters before we got to OT, they had the ball for 37 of the 60 minutes and they had over 500 yards and probably couldn't even believe it was going to overtime. Seattle's secondary was demolished. They had, they lost three of their best guys.

• 9:32Speaker 01

  They're all down.

• 9:33Bill Simmons?

  And nobody left.

• 9:34Speaker 01

  And then Warren, they're all injured.

• 9:37Bill Simmons?

  Right, and then Puka, who I guess just gained, he's like Michael Myers. He like just gains steam as the horror movie goes along and just when you think he's, he's done, then he gets another one. He gets like a 41 yard touchdown. I went against him in fantasy at 40.5 points. I, I haven't even, the rest of my team hasn't even played yet in the playoffs. I already feel like I lost. And then Stafford for, you know, it looked like there were various points in the game where I was like, he's going to win the MVP. This is a wrap.

• 10:06Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:07Bill Simmons?

  And now he's not even going to be the one seed unless the Seahawks, who, by the way, Seahawks-

• 10:12Speaker 01

  They have a tough next two games.

• 10:14Bill Simmons?

  At Carolina, at San Francisco with their left tackle didn't play today. They have all these secondary injuries. They're basically have one receiver. You know, so you can't feel great if you're them. Plus Sam Darnold going back to Carolina. But if you're the Rams, you have four losses now. You're 11 and four. You lost that Philly game, which was the, one of the three dumbest losses of the year.

• 10:35Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 10:35Bill Simmons?

  You lost that San Francisco Mac Jones game. And then you lose this game.

• 10:40Speaker 01

  And then Carolina, and you lose Carolina.

• 10:43Bill Simmons?

  And Carolina. And those are your four losses.

• 10:46Speaker 01

  Good stat. I got friends just texted me, second team in history to have a quarterback throw for 450 yards and no interceptions and a wide receiver have 225 receiving yards and still lose. It was, that's, I mean, it's a crazy, crazy game.

• 11:02Bill Simmons?

  Well, then you had, Seattle gets the interception in OT. And then we review it and he didn't get his hands under it.

• 11:08Speaker 01

  You're like, all right.

• 11:09Bill Simmons?

  But not, but after they review it's incomplete, he'd already made his entire team run all the way down to the end zone to celebrate. It's like, no, no, we gotta get back in the field.

• 11:17Speaker 01

  Cooper Cup fumbles early, former Ram redeems himself later. Ernest Jones, Super Bowl hero. He gets that interception. Actually, it's not an interception. Like, these two teams are so intertwined and have so much history. And in recent history, the Rams have just owned the Seahawks, whether it be the playoff game when Jared Goff comes in with nine fingers and beats the Seahawks up in Seattle. And then the last few years, of course, where Darnold just hasn't been able to get it done, uh, when he was with the Vikings, obviously, uh, you know, that's fine. But with the Seahawks, they couldn't do it either. So Darnold, Seahawks, the Rams have always been kryptonite for both these guys. And sure enough.

• 11:55Bill Simmons?

  Well, big picture, Rams dominate that game for the first 50 minutes and it felt like a different class watching it. It felt like the Rams were the best team in the NFC and maybe even the whole league. And Seattle was the light heavyweight trying to come up and fight the heavyweight. Couldn't really run the ball that effectively. They took out JS and they really had nowhere else to go. Darnold looked like he was in seeing ghost mode. Their defense couldn't really get pressure. It wasn't like that, that crazy 12th man kind of crowd. And the Rams dominated the game and the punt return flipped the game and then it got weird. And I don't know if I'm the Rams, how do I feel coming out of that game? Like, it's like, oh my God, do we, we blew that, but we know we're better

• 12:39Bill Simmons?

  than them? Is they, are you looking in the mirror going, what's wrong? What do we have to, what, what did we do wrong? Is this a flaw? What, what happens?

• 12:46Speaker 01

  You thought the Devante Adams situation would be their Achilles heel. However, you go through the box score, they threw for 457 yards and they had Nakua catch 12 balls and then Xavier Smith and Mumpfield and Allen and Ferguson and Parkinson and Wittington, they all, they all played great. They all played great.

• 13:04Bill Simmons?

  That wasn't the reason they lost.

• 13:05Speaker 01

  It wasn't like they missed Devante so much that they couldn't score points. And then the defense was getting pressure. It's a crazy game in a crazy environment up there on a short week. In a week where you can make a million excuses, whether it be your number one wide receivers out with a hamstring, your number two or one A wide receivers and dealt with a controversy throughout the week with a streamer. And then the team has to put out a statement, he has to put out a statement. And then, oh yeah, by the way, the head coach had a baby on Monday, has been violently ill the week before. And the team had a flight delay. I mean, there's a million ways you can say, let's just not overdo this. That said, that is an all time loss, an all time loss in a game that they needed to win.

• 13:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so if they drop to five. So they're 11 and four now, but by the way. San Francisco, they play Indianapolis and Phil Rivers. Week 16, we'll be talking about that. You're going to do picks with me this week.

• 14:01Speaker 01

  I'll be there Monday night.

• 14:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so they could potentially be tied with San Francisco. So maybe, maybe you don't even have the five seed locked up. But if you get the five seed this year, I don't feel like that's the same kind of.

• 14:14Speaker 01

  Cause of Carolina, Tampa.

• 14:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you're playing one of those crappy, and they'll be, the Rams would be like a five point favorite. I am personally not sold on Seattle getting through these next two unscathed. I still feel like, like if you, I'll look at Fandel as you're thinking about this, but if you had to pick a team, even though the Seahawks have a slight advantage right now. Who is going to be the NFC West champion between these two teams, knowing what's left on the schedule where you have?

• 14:42Speaker 01

  San Francisco, San Francisco has the tiebreaker right now over Seattle. They beat them in week one, so.

• 14:48Bill Simmons?

  But they play in week 18.

• 14:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, so if San Francisco.

• 14:50Bill Simmons?

  And then the Rams go at Atlanta and then home Arizona, they're not losing again. So they're going to finish 13 and four.

• 14:56Speaker 01

  Rams will be 13 and four. I'd have to do the math now, but like if San Francisco beats, what's San Francisco got? They got the Colts?

• 15:04Bill Simmons?

  Colts, they have the, the Bears at home, not an easy one.

• 15:09Speaker 01

  No.

• 15:09Bill Simmons?

  And then home for Seattle.

• 15:11Speaker 01

  They went out.

• 15:14Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean.

• 15:15Bill Simmons?

  I have the division odds for you.

• 15:16Speaker 01

  Yeah, what do we got?

• 15:18Bill Simmons?

  Seahawks minus 135 on FanDuel. Was that your first yawn?

• 15:21Speaker 01

  I didn't yawn.

• 15:22Bill Simmons?

  It's a mini land?

• 15:23Speaker 01

  It's like a giggle.

• 15:25Bill Simmons?

  Rams plus 270, 49ers plus 330. It feels like all of those should be way closer. I like the Rams plus 270. I'd still feel like they could. I don't think they lose again. And if Seattle and San Francisco.

• 15:41Bill Simmons?

  If Seattle loses.

• 15:44Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. Hard to figure out.

• 15:46Speaker 01

  Hard to figure out.

• 15:47Bill Simmons?

  Should be closer.

• 15:49Speaker 01

  I was inspired to stay up, not only because of this game and me knowing what it would be, but when I heard Zach Lowe breaking down the NBA Cup Finals on the East Coast in Connecticut on Tuesday night. That's when I texted you. I'm like, I could do this.

• 16:03Bill Simmons?

  You're like same age range?

• 16:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 16:05Bill Simmons?

  Both have kids?

• 16:06Speaker 01

  Both kids are sleeping about 10 feet away, but that's okay. That's good.

• 16:11Bill Simmons?

  I have a couple of small ones for you. Notes off the game.

• 16:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 16:15Bill Simmons?

  The Rams, the rare indoor team. That also feels like they're kind of built for January cold weather.

• 16:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 16:23Bill Simmons?

  And I think a big reason for it is Nakua, who's just extraordinary. And I don't, I don't know. It feels a little like watching Cooper Cup that one year where it's like, I don't know how many years. Somebody can do this. Where it's just, you're just driving the car 85 miles for seven hours a day. And at some point the car is going to be like, dude, enough. But right now, he's, he's the receiver you would want out of any receiver in the league for a playoff game. So what I like about them is no matter where they're playing in January, I feel like they're okay. I don't know if I feel that way about the Seahawks.

• 16:56Speaker 01

  Oddly enough, and I don't have the numbers in front of me, Seahawks under Mike McDonald are just incredible on the road. Like they've lost a bunch of games at home, but I think they've lost like two games on the road under Mike McDonald in two years. So I agree, the way they play where they don't run the ball, their offensive line is fine. And that they rely on a lot of passes to JSN and then hoping for defensive turnovers and all that. It's a, it's not a brand of football.

• 17:23Bill Simmons?

  The other team's pass rush is always, feels like it's either getting there, it's almost getting there every play.

• 17:29Speaker 01

  I'm not sure if that wins a game in Green Bay or Chicago or Philadelphia. I get what you're saying. That said. This team.

• 17:36Bill Simmons?

  Maybe they won't have to.

• 17:37Speaker 01

  They might not have to.

• 17:38Bill Simmons?

  It goes through Seattle.

• 17:39Speaker 01

  They might be home for two rounds or for, you know, one and then go on the road from there.

• 17:46Bill Simmons?

  I'm still not positive he trusts Darnold. There was a play in the first half when McVay was super aggressive and then Seattle had a similar circumstance near midfield. Maybe it was a little more on their end, but it was like a fourth and one and they punted.

• 18:01Speaker 01

  Yeah, no.

• 18:01Bill Simmons?

  I was like, oh, that's interesting.

• 18:03Speaker 01

  The entire first half.

• 18:03Bill Simmons?

  You still don't totally trust that dude.

• 18:05Speaker 01

  The entire first half was an indictment on what they thought of Darnold. They were, I mean, that run game, I think they averaged 2.7 yards per carry all season. They were just running the ball with Charbonne and Walker. And if he doesn't have that one 45 yard catch early on, there was no passing yards in the first half. So it was this, we're going to protect Sam Darnold approach, which you can't win football games that way, especially with a quarterback making a hundred million dollars, which Sam Darnold is. And then the second half, it started off terribly. And then like we said, he was fantastic. The final 10 minutes of this game.

• 18:35Bill Simmons?

  He was. You know, far be it for me to make suggestions to an NFL team when they know more about football and plays and personnel than I do. It's weird to me that Shaheed doesn't play more for them and that they don't look for more ways to just have him on the field being scary. Like I would even consider lining him up at running back just to give the hint of like screen passes or quick coming out of the backfield, anything. I think that guy's terrifying. And every time they use them, he, he felt like he made an impact.

• 19:05Speaker 01

  Well, the punt returns have been huge this season and he's, you know, that's, that's the play of the game to me. Brought everything back there.

• 19:12Bill Simmons?

  No question.

• 19:13Speaker 01

  And I, I think he had like, you know, a couple plays in the passing game, but to your point, use him on some trick plays, use him on a reverse, use him on a, you know, whatever it be, get him going.

• 19:25Bill Simmons?

  How about one play down the sideline for 40 yards? Just like try to do the Aaron Rodgers. I'll get a pass interference or it's a punt or he'll catch it.

• 19:33Speaker 01

  I think midway through the game, he had zero targets for zero catches, zero yards. I think it took until the fourth quarter, he actually had a catch, which is strange.

• 19:41Bill Simmons?

  I don't get that.

• 19:44Bill Simmons?

  Last note I had was I thought that was the most exciting two point in a while.

• 19:48Speaker 01

  Oh my gosh.

• 19:49Bill Simmons?

  And it was hilarious because Herb Street with they're driving in Herb Street. They're unlike the 20. Herb Street's like, ow, I think if they score a touchdown, they'll probably go for a two point. It's like, yeah, yeah, I think that's what's gonna happen, Kirk, considering they lost the first matchup and they can't have a fucking tie. They're gonna probably go for this.

• 20:07Speaker 01

  If they go 0-1 and 1, that doesn't win the division.

• 20:11Bill Simmons?

  Doesn't help them, Herbie.

• 20:12Speaker 01

  They, they had to do that. I also, it was like, even if they had just one matchup, the way these teams are doing it now, it's almost like you're a coward if you don't like, all right, you're a coward. Like, go do, like, you don't want to hear with, go show what you're made of and show your team what you're made of.

• 20:31Bill Simmons?

  Well, what if you had won the first game?

• 20:34Speaker 01

  Maybe you kicked the extra point. I don't know.

• 20:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 20:37Speaker 01

  A tie is good enough, but then you had to stop them again with three minutes left.

• 20:42Bill Simmons?

  Wait, can we do, um, can we do who you think is gonna win the Super Bowl now after you see that game? Because right now on Fanduel, Rams plus 490, Seahawks plus 550 are the two favorites.

• 20:54Speaker 01

  So the Rams are still favored over the Seahawks?

• 20:56Bill Simmons?

  Rams are still favored.

• 20:58Speaker 01

  Interesting.

• 20:58Bill Simmons?

  Bills are plus 800, Denver 850, Eagles 10-1, Packers 11-1.

• 21:04Speaker 01

  What an amazing season that that's our choices. It's so good.

• 21:07Bill Simmons?

  You can make cases for all of them. I, although I think the Packers might have had too many injuries. I wouldn't really want to make the case for them at this point.

• 21:13Speaker 01

  Who did you have? Not to bring it up if it was bad, but who'd you have? Do you have Ravens before the season? Who was your team to add to the AFC?

• 21:18Bill Simmons?

  No, I had Packers over the Bills.

• 21:20Speaker 01

  Packers, Bills. I had Eagle, I had Bills over Eagles. So we're both still alive here.

• 21:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 21:27Speaker 01

  Both of us with Bills.

• 21:28Bill Simmons?

  Only, only the Chiefs picks are not alive.

• 21:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, I know, Chiefs.

• 21:33Bill Simmons?

  I think you should feel good about the Bills because I think they at least know who they are now.

• 21:37Speaker 01

  And they've been there.

• 21:38Bill Simmons?

  They know they don't have deep passes anymore and they figured out how to adjust. And it's Allen and Cook and they're just good enough on defense and for the AFC, it might be enough.

• 21:48Speaker 01

  It might be. It might be. We could talk about all the teams. I mean, I've been on the Broncos. You've been on the Broncos from before the season. You picked them to win the AFC West. I was hyping them up just because of, you know, my usual affinity for Sean Payton, but what they do is maddening for the rest of the league. They keep you in a game, keep you in a game, and then they break your heart at the end with a Bo Nix heroic drive every single time. And they win games by one score and they don't lose at home. And so if they're a one seed-

• 22:16Bill Simmons?

  And they have a pass rush. They can get a couple 40-yard passes every play.

• 22:19Speaker 01

  Best defensive back in football.

• 22:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. They have, they bring things to the table. They have a good home field advantage.

• 22:25Speaker 01

  Great special teams.

• 22:26Bill Simmons?

  And it might work out that you just have to go through there to make the Super Bowl if you're in the AFC, which is good for them because they're good in Denver. I, I was not a, I was obviously not a Knicks guy. And it was one of the, we were calling him Boot and Rally Bo for the first eight weeks, me and Sal. Thought he was great last week. He was really good. And then there was a lot of good stuff this week on the different shows with the video and the all 22 of just like how good some of his throws were. I even, I was learning some, the two high, he was beating the two high. Don't do the two high.

• 23:00Speaker 01

  Scraping linebacker. They're down 23-14 and he leads them on three straight scoring drives. And I talked to Payton this week. He's just like, I love this kid. I'm like, I know, I know. Then he's like, we gotta get Harvey going more. So they don't even feel like they've gotten the rookie running back, like in the flow. He's played okay, but they, they still feel like there's more to go on offense and that their defense is legit. So, you know, two high safety, you could talk about all that all you want. I'll talk about the quarterback and the coach and the narrative that they just win at home. And when you need a big kick, Will Lutz will make that big kick. And when you need a big punt return, Marvin Mims will make that big punt return. So it's like, they're very difficult to beat because they don't shoot themselves in their own foot, even though sometimes they make head scratching play calls and you're like, what is Sean doing? They always get

• 23:44Speaker 01

  themselves out of it and Bo Nix gets the job done.

• 23:47Bill Simmons?

  And healthy at this point of the year.

• 23:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 23:50Bill Simmons?

  Whereas like the Patriots, I think have gone the other way and have had some, some injuries that have hurt. They were probably a little overvalued to the, to begin with, but we're going to talk about them when we do, uh, we'll take a break. We'll do ring one oh seven. You're going to help me.

• 24:03Speaker 01

  I'm going, I'm going nuts. Best, best Thursday night game. I'm trying to rack my brain here.

• 24:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. See, I did the thing that I hate when other people do, when it's like the recency bias and you just, no, you just assume something was the best because you just saw it. But I think when it's basically you're battling for the number one seed, you have an incredible comeback game with an iconic ridiculous play that we're always going to remember, like the fucking backward pass two point that somehow counted and a punt return TD and we go in OT and they have to go touchdown two point to swing it and actually get it. It's pretty good.

• 24:37Speaker 01

  There was a, there was a Cowboys Packers Thursday night game back when like Bryant Gumbel was calling the games where Aaron Rodgers made his first start as a Packer. I remember that being like must see TV on a Thursday night against the Cowboys and Rodgers played awesome in the game. That was 2007 though. I don't have one of the last 15, 20 years that I can remember that have been anything like we just watched.

• 25:00Bill Simmons?

  The only other thing before we take a break, we probably should have led with this or at least mentioned it in the first five minutes. Like that was a little fork in the roadie for Darnold.

• 25:12Speaker 01

  Oh dude.

• 25:12Bill Simmons?

  Let's play it out where they just Shaheed, it's a block, block in the back on the punt return TD and they just lose by 14.

• 25:19Speaker 01

  It's done.

• 25:20Bill Simmons?

  And it is just, yeah. It's like, what do we do next year with Sam Darnold? What do we do a quarterback?

• 25:25Speaker 01

  Hanging fruit quarterback because he's been with the Jets and said he saw ghosts against the Patriots and he's not a guy who's like loud. He's kind of a soft spoken guy that's not in the media. So he's the kind of quarterback that we would just, as a national media, which is tomorrow on Get Up, I'm on the show in about six hours. We would do three, two hours on Sam Darnold not being able to win.

• 25:47Bill Simmons?

  You're on Get Up in six hours?

• 25:48Speaker 01

  Yeah. Come on.

• 25:49Bill Simmons?

  Are you, are you in studio?

• 25:51Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 25:52Bill Simmons?

  Oh my God, look at you. What are you, it's courageous by you.

• 25:55Speaker 01

  What are we talking about? I gotta talk about, you know, all the Miami Hurricane pass rushers that are gonna be draft prospects.

• 26:01Bill Simmons?

  Well, feel free to steal some of my points.

• 26:02Speaker 01

  I already have been jotting them down. The thing you said, though, about the fork in the road, you know, the only other quarterback that like I could think of was Cousins could not win in primetime year after year after year. And then they played the Saints in a wild card round game, the COVID year, no, the year before COVID, so it was 2020. And they went into New Orleans, hits Kyle Rudolph in overtime for the touchdown.

• 26:25Bill Simmons?

  I remember that.

• 26:26Speaker 01

  And it was like his first big win. And after like five years of Cousins just sucking and getting piled on like a pin and getting beat up like a pinata, we all had to come in that Monday morning and kind of like tail between our legs like, all right, Cousins, he won a big one. I don't know if that's tomorrow with Darnold. This isn't a playoff game. And last year, he came back against the Bears in a big game. He came back against the Seahawks, which was kind of the reason they signed him. He did it in Seattle. He was fantastic. Like, he had big drives. But this one with the division on the line and everything, and the way it started, that's a huge game, man.

• 27:02Bill Simmons?

  It's good because it's polarizing either way. You can zag the other way and be like, I don't, I still don't feel comfortable with him. What about the first 50 minutes, guys?

• 27:11Speaker 01

  No doubt.

• 27:11Bill Simmons?

  The good news is you're not gonna have to do that much tomorrow and get up because there's probably gonna be five other people on.

• 27:16Speaker 01

  It is.

• 27:17Bill Simmons?

  You just get to just pick your spots and drop in.

• 27:19Speaker 01

  Barely available, barely available room.

• 27:21Bill Simmons?

  You're doing your, doing the hits like this. All right, we're taking a break. Help me with Ringer 107 in a second. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn Ads. The best B2B marketing gets wasted on the wrong people. So when you want to reach the right professionals, use LinkedIn Ads. LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1 billion professionals, including 130 million decision makers. And that's where it stands apart from the other ad buys. You can target your buyers by job title, industry, company, role, seniority, skills, company revenue. So you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience. That's why LinkedIn Ads generates the highest B2B return and ad spend on all online ad networks. Seriously, all of them. Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn Ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one.

• 28:05Bill Simmons?

  Just go to LinkedIn.com slash Simmons Bill. Terms and conditions apply. All right. Ringer 107 with a worn out Peter Schrager who has to hop in a car in five hours and drive to Bristol to do more TV. So this is really quite an honor. We gave Joe House the week off. He was like Sam Darnold. He was seeing ghosts. We just, we didn't have the magic this year. Everyone's getting killed in picks this year, Shreks.

• 28:27Speaker 01

  Oh gosh, it's so hard.

• 28:29Bill Simmons?

  It's my, uh, my picks league that I, my Gus Ramsey, who I think you know, who's run this picks league since the early nineties. This is the worst. We have like 28, 30 teams in the league. We just pick against the spread. It's the worst across the board records we've ever had in the league. And I don't really know the reasons for it, but, uh, it's just every time you think it's going to zig, it zags and vice versa, and people are struggling. So, uh,

• 28:54Speaker 01

  I have a friend, my friend, Jordan, he sends me the standings of his pick leagues like all the time. I'm like, he's like, what do you think? I'm like, you don't want, you don't want any, like just go with your gut. You're winning. Let go. Just like, you don't want anyone. It is so hard, especially with the spread. Like this year has been just, just when you want to crown a team, they end up losing. I mean, you think about that Carolina team and their season, they beat all these world beaters. They beat the Packers and the Rams, but they got swept by the Saints. It's like, you can't, you can't predict.

• 29:23Bill Simmons?

  Well, think about, they're also getting way better at how to set the spreads. Like the Rams line today was Seahawks, it ended up Seahawks minus one and a half, which I had, I lost by a half point.

• 29:33Speaker 01

  One by two.

• 29:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Could I just bet the money line? I didn't. Um, okay. Two games. I think we're going to throw out Cowboys, Chargers, Bucks, Panthers, Lions, Steelers, Jets, Saints, Vikings, Giants, Falcons, Cards and Texans, Raiders. I thought about Browns home, getting 10 and a half in Cleveland against the Bills, but I, it's just not fun to bet against Josh Allen.

• 29:56Speaker 01

  No. And that could be 41, nothing.

• 29:59Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. That's one of those you feel stupid. Um, Dolphins, Bengals.

• 30:05Speaker 01

  I don't know what to get with the Dolphins. You have a seventh round quarterback who I was told was undraftable in the draft and he's going for his first career start. So as bad as the Bengals mojo is, I don't know what we're, it's such a variable with Quinn Ewers.

• 30:21Bill Simmons?

  But here's the thing, is there, like, how is he gonna be worse than Tua?

• 30:25Speaker 01

  I know.

• 30:26Bill Simmons?

  Tua's have been unplayable for six weeks. And, you know, last week, I just thought they were gonna run the ball down Pittsburgh's throat. As soon as they fell behind by three, they had to start throwing it with him and he's just lost it.

• 30:39Speaker 01

  With Darnold, it's like, until you win those games, like, the narrative with the weather, it's so obvious and it's so stupid, it's such low hanging fruit. But I'm there in Pittsburgh on Monday night and I'm like, I don't know, he doesn't win in the cold. And everyone's like, yeah, but, I'm like, I don't think there's a yeah, but, like, he's just terrible in the cold.

• 30:54Bill Simmons?

  There was a yeah, but on this podcast last week. House and I were like, let's zag. Everyone thinks Tua can't win in cold weather. We're zagging. And guess what? We zagged off the road. We're staying away from Dolphins-Bengals, even though I just want to point out, it shouldn't have shifted the line that much that Tua wasn't the quarterback?

• 31:12Speaker 01

  How much did it?

• 31:14Bill Simmons?

  I think it was plus one and a half to plus four and a half. It felt like that line moved three points.

• 31:18Speaker 01

  That's fair. You're right.

• 31:20Bill Simmons?

  Depressed Joe Burrow? I don't know.

• 31:22Speaker 01

  Depressed Joe Burrow is the saddest version of any quarterback in football.

• 31:25Bill Simmons?

  I hate depressed Joe Burrow.

• 31:26Speaker 01

  Last week was really sad.

• 31:29Bill Simmons?

  Have we ever had a better quarterback seem sadder?

• 31:31Speaker 01

  So sad.

• 31:32Bill Simmons?

  Like even Stafford in Detroit didn't seem this sad.

• 31:35Speaker 01

  No.

• 31:36Bill Simmons?

  Couldn't have been more depressed.

• 31:37Speaker 01

  Burrow's so sad. And like, we, we run the sound on these shows, we have to respond to it. And I'm like, guys, it's almost too dark. Like, I don't, like, everyone becomes a sports therapist on these shows, too. It's like, everyone has their own, like, mental health theory. I'm like, guys, let's, I don't, let's, let, let Joe Burrow play football and we'll figure it all out when the season's over, just how dark this is. But the way he played last week, his worst game as a pro, after those comments, I mean, that's, that's bleak.

• 32:04Bill Simmons?

  It's really, it's one of the first times we've seen a star quarterback where the soundtrack for his passes would be 80s music that's like the Smiths and Joy Division.

• 32:13Speaker 01

  Morrissey.

• 32:14Bill Simmons?

  The music that I liked once upon a time. Like, he should be wearing an overcoat during the sidelines.

• 32:19Speaker 01

  The Donnie Darko soundtrack.

• 32:22Bill Simmons?

  I like the Dolphins plus four and a half, but there's better games, I think. Okay. Five games in a parlay. I'll throw the parlay first.

• 32:28Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 32:29Bill Simmons?

  Bears Packers. Bears plus one and a half at home against Green Bay, who lost. Micah Parsons. They're not gonna have Watson. Josh Jacobs still banged up. Who else is hurt on the Packers?

• 32:40Speaker 01

  They might get, they might get Watson.

• 32:43Bill Simmons?

  Ah, come on.

• 32:44Speaker 01

  We don't know. It's Saturday. I know.

• 32:45Bill Simmons?

  It'll be like, we're not sure. Is it like that? Maybe they'll run and they have one more injury.

• 32:50Speaker 01

  Probably not gonna get Evan Williams, who's their great safety. He's out. Van Ness has been in and out of the lineup and probably I wouldn't imagine he's out there and then Wyatt's out for the year. So they.

• 33:00Bill Simmons?

  Oh, and then Kraft's out for the year. Right. That was the other. They had what? Nine elite players and they're down to four?

• 33:06Speaker 01

  I think I read they had like, you know, 10 guys who were day one starters who are probably not gonna be active for this game, which is.

• 33:13Bill Simmons?

  Not great.

• 33:14Speaker 01

  Not great. Um.

• 33:15Bill Simmons?

  I think the Bears can run on them. I trust Caleb enough to do the one wow play a quarter where he just gets out of a sack. I don't totally, I'm sure he'll throw them the ball once, but I think it's okay. Your guy Ben Johnson. Big win. Take a bow. You were touting him before the year.

• 33:33Speaker 01

  Big on that.

• 33:34Bill Simmons?

  Big one.

• 33:36Bill Simmons?

  But I was thinking doing a little tweak with the Bears plus four and a half. And then taking the under up to 53 and a half, because I can't imagine there's a lot of points on a Saturday. Cold weather, Chicago game. What are the ads? That's a 30 to 27 game. I don't see it.

• 33:52Speaker 01

  I would have thought Seattle versus the Rams without Devante Adams in the rain and the whipping wind would have been.

• 33:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but think about what that took though. That took a punt return TD and it's just weird shit. The backward two point.

• 34:05Speaker 01

  I will say this about Green Bay.

• 34:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 34:08Speaker 01

  Hafley's really good as a defensive coordinator and like this is one of those. All right, we've owned this team for two decades. They're at home. It's their biggest game. You know, since they went to the playoffs and had the double doink against the Eagles. This play Saturday night is gonna be rocking. We've already beaten them once. Can we get enough out of guys like JJ and a bar A and guys like, you know, Baron Sorel, whoever they have filling in on defensive line. Can we get enough? Can we galvanize? Can we look at each other and say, everyone's counted us out. Nobody believes in us. Classic, nobody believes in us game and then say, we own this team. I know. So I'm saying the defense, the defense, like can they just do enough?

• 34:51Speaker 01

  Because, you know, last time they played two weeks ago, zero runs over nine yards. They carried the ball 32 times, maybe, and they didn't break 100. Like, it was as good as you could have possibly asked from the Packers defense against a run offense that ran all over the Philadelphia Eagles the week before. So they've beaten them before. That's what you're gonna need. I think the Packers offense, they'll score points, they'll get enough. It's their defense can stop the run, and I think they can.

• 35:21Bill Simmons?

  I'm a little worried about their offense and the receivers they have. Because I've had fantasy guys on that team the whole year. And Watson was the first one that seemed like he was getting open in the back twice a game. Kraft was their big third down guy. And now we're, you know, it's like, hey, Matthew Golden, is this the week? And I don't think he's had more than three catches in any week. I like Matthew Golden, but I actually think they're gonna need him in the Chicago game. So I don't know, I like a little ugly Saturday night. I like the four and a half.

• 35:52Speaker 01

  I like the Saturday night 820 game. I like this on the East Coast. Like, I like it. It's, everyone's gonna be watching. Brady and Burkhardt, it's on Fox. I assumed it was NFL Network. It's on Fox. So we're gonna get Brady and Burkhardt. I feel like we're gonna hear Halfley's name said maybe 100 times. And there's a lot of teams that might be looking for coaches and fanbases who are just gonna be sitting on the East Coast, whether it be Giants fans, whether it be Titans fans, could be Raiders fans, could be Dolphins fans. You go down the list of like, who might need a head coach? And if they put on like, one of these great defensive performances, they'll be talking about Halfley. And like, okay, that's the head coaching guy. And it's because he did it without Micah. There's so many different parts to this game from the Green Bay side of like, we lose, we're probably done in the NFC North.

• 36:37Speaker 01

  These guys are gonna run away with it and we finally like, hand the torch back to these guys. Or if we win, we keep our foot on their throats and it's another two decades of dominance. One of those type deals.

• 36:49Bill Simmons?

  So if the Bears win this, is there any chance they could be the one seed?

• 36:56Speaker 01

  There is, right? Yes, yes.

• 36:58Bill Simmons?

  Cause they're 12 to one to win the NFC right now.

• 37:01Speaker 01

  Well, I don't have it in front of me.

• 37:02Bill Simmons?

  I mean, they have, they have tough schedule left.

• 37:04Speaker 01

  They had the Niners on a Sunday night.

• 37:07Bill Simmons?

  Niners then.

• 37:07Speaker 01

  And then.

• 37:08Bill Simmons?

  And then they have, I think Minnesota to end the season.

• 37:10Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 37:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 37:13Bill Simmons?

  Okay. I like Bears plus four and a half in the under 53 and a half. I'm just gonna mark that down. It's not official yet. We're gonna mark that one down.

• 37:23Bill Simmons?

  Titans Chiefs. Titans plus three at home against Gardner Minshew and a Chiefs team that hasn't played a meaningless game in 10 years, nine years? I don't even know when.

• 37:38Speaker 01

  They had to make 10 straight playoffs, so.

• 37:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, 11 years. So I didn't think the Chiefs were that good to begin with. Mahomes was keeping a lot of stuff together and now he's out. And one of the things is the Titans running game has really gotten going the last couple of weeks.

• 37:54Speaker 01

  They have.

• 37:57Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. This line dropped from four to three.

• 37:59Speaker 01

  I don't know. Titans are like the worst.

• 38:00Bill Simmons?

  Three.

• 38:01Speaker 01

  I don't know. It's tough for me to think that the Titans are gonna hang with the Chiefs. I don't care who's at quarterback. Really? Titans?

• 38:07Bill Simmons?

  I just, I have it marked down. I wanted to talk it out. What are the Chiefs playing for right now? What do they care?

• 38:13Speaker 01

  You're right. You're right.

• 38:14Bill Simmons?

  I'm just, I'm curious. Like you're wired in with that team. Why are they gonna give a shit about a game in Tennessee after their season is just abruptly ended?

• 38:22Speaker 01

  Objectively better football players on the field at just about every position, you know? Even without Mahomes and without whoever. And it's like, if you have any pride, do you lose to the Tennessee Titans? I don't know. I know Mahomes isn't there, but these are professionals.

• 38:36Bill Simmons?

  I have games I like more. I just wanted to talk about it.

• 38:39Speaker 01

  I wanted to get your thoughts on Chris Russo's comments.

• 38:42Bill Simmons?

  What did he say?

• 38:43Speaker 01

  Kelsey didn't talk to the media after the game. Russo went nuts on first take. Said, said he's saving it for his podcast. There's no sports fan actually listens to that podcast. He's taking on a Travis Kelsey.

• 38:56Bill Simmons?

  It's a pretty big audience.

• 38:57Speaker 01

  I'm sitting there like.

• 38:58Bill Simmons?

  He's sitting there telling reporters, he doesn't want to talk to him so he can save it for new heights.

• 39:03Speaker 01

  That's exactly what he said, verbatim.

• 39:07Bill Simmons?

  How much fun you get to do TV with him? It's the best.

• 39:09Speaker 02

  I only do First Take on Wednesdays and I'm in studio with Chris Russo. It's like, it's a dream.

• 39:15Bill Simmons?

  That's great.

• 39:15Speaker 02

  It's a dream. I thought it was interesting. I feel like there's a couple sacred cows in media and he's saying it on ESPN, where Jason Kelsey is employed and he's just like, no one listens to that podcast. I'm just like, oh, Simmons is gonna, probably has thoughts on this.

• 39:30Bill Simmons?

  Oh, that's good. Well, he's wrong on that, but I appreciate the spirit. Okay, next game.

• 39:37Bill Simmons?

  So we're probably not doing the Titans plus three. I really.

• 39:40Speaker 02

  Do it.

• 39:41Bill Simmons?

  I wish it was plus four and a half. Colts plus five and a half.

• 39:46Speaker 02

  If you love the Mike McCoy Titans so much, just go with it.

• 39:48Bill Simmons?

  No, I don't love them. I don't think they're very good. I just don't know. It's Gardner Minshew. We saw him play one series. He immediately threw the ball to the other team. I mean, he's bad. We've seen him fail on multiple teams. So that's kind of the great equalizer.

• 40:02Speaker 02

  He was once your white whale.

• 40:04Bill Simmons?

  It was fun. It seemed like he had a chance to have something.

• 40:08Speaker 02

  Loved him for a while.

• 40:09Bill Simmons?

  I did. The Raiders kind of ended it. Colts plus five and a half at home against the 49ers. I watched every play of this game last week.

• 40:17Speaker 02

  Colts Seahawks?

• 40:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 40:19Speaker 02

  Me too.

• 40:19Bill Simmons?

  Of the Colts Seahawks. Just a really nice, really well-paced, well-coached, spirited effort by a Colts team that really wanted it. By the way, they really need this game.

• 40:31Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 40:32Bill Simmons?

  And the Niners defense, some of the stats are a bit like the Titans.

• 40:36Speaker 02

  You just mentioned it. Titans went all over, up and down the field.

• 40:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so I, I just think that line's too high.

• 40:44Speaker 02

  Two variables here. So I talked to Aikman today. I said, give me just a thought, you know, at the end of your career, he was 34 years old. You get beat up, you get hit a couple of times. What's it like?

• 41:00Speaker 01

  The next couple of days, he's like, you know, you don't feel great until Tuesday, maybe Wednesday.

• 41:07Speaker 01

  You add 10 years to that, five years removed from the game. We have no idea because it's Thursday, we're doing it like, is Rivers okay? The physical toll, and I know he didn't get the crap beat out of him, like people thought.

• 41:20Bill Simmons?

  He took two good hits.

• 41:21Speaker 01

  He took two hits, but the 27 passes, the snaps, everything. So I know they have a long week. It's Monday night, that place is going to be rocking. It will be because they, they are, they, they know it's the season and it's also a home Monday night game. Indianapolis, great crowd. Is that enough? Or is this like, he gave it all he had in that one thing. That's the Disney movie, they lose.

• 41:44Bill Simmons?

  He wasn't even that good though. I mean, he was fine.

• 41:47Speaker 01

  But in a Disney movie, that's how he would have played. Make two big passes, get them into field goal range, they kick the field goal and then they lose on a heartbreaking field goal. And it's like, he goes back to his family and it's like, I gave it all I had. It was great. Now he's got to do it for three more games.

• 42:00Bill Simmons?

  This 28 year old kid crying in the stands. Buckner, I thought, had a huge impact on Sunday and just their, their front seven just seemed pretty feisty. They're low on cornerbacks, but against this Niners team that, I mean, this Ayuk situation is bizarre. Hearsaw's not playing.

• 42:18Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 42:20Bill Simmons?

  I think it's too many points. I'm going to mark down Colts.

• 42:22Speaker 01

  I like the Colts in this game.

• 42:24Bill Simmons?

  Fun, fun to root for too. And FYI, kind of a kitchen sink game for them.

• 42:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, and we talked about it over text and then you said you had a separate text chain with Hench and the boys about whether or not they should have bet against the Colts. Cause their schedule was so difficult after the sauce trade. I mean, they haven't won a game since the injury. And then now it's like, if they don't win this one, it's, it's pretty much done.

• 42:51Bill Simmons?

  All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV. You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you your live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching, just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary. This episode is brought to you by Sony Pictures Classics. A perfect crime film, says the Daily Beast. John Tortore gives a career best performance. Don't miss the acclaimed new thriller, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. Tortore stars as an aging master pickpocket, whose latest score puts him in the crosshairs of a ruthless crime family.

• 43:34Bill Simmons?

  It's also starring Giancarlo Esposito, Tatiana Maslany, Will Price, and our guy, Steve Buscemi. See the film that the LA Times calls instantly classic, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, now playing in theaters nationwide. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Excitement is in the air. That's right, it's the start of NBA season. I can't wait to get together with friends, share some Michelob Ultras, and watch Tip Off. Plus, as the official beer sponsor of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Opening US residents 21 plus.

• 44:19Bill Simmons?

  Begins on October 1st, 2026, ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com/courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. Home Jacksonville at Houston last two. I don't think there's a path for the playoffs for them if they lose this. So I have them marked down. Washington's plus seven at home against the Eagles. And I feel like we have this game every year. And every year, Washington wins it or comes close. And the Eagles are terrible in this game. And Mariota, fine. He's been okay. They've got most of their guys back. They hate the Eagles. These teams don't like each other. And I don't trust the Eagles at all. And it's not like the Eagles are healthy.

• 45:03Bill Simmons?

  Like, a bunch of their guys are still out.

• 45:05Speaker 01

  Lane Johnson's probably not gonna play.

• 45:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And is Dickerson playing or not?

• 45:09Speaker 01

  I don't know about Dickerson. Jalen Carter's not gonna play.

• 45:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 45:13Speaker 01

  Um, I'd be pretty comf- I mean, I haven't seen the report. It might be already out, but I think Lane Johnson's out. And I don't know. I feel like, did you watch Washington Giants at all? Or did that not make

• 45:25Bill Simmons?

  I did not. I missed that game.

• 45:26Speaker 01

  It's one of the worst football games you'll ever watch.

• 45:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it was bad.

• 45:28Speaker 01

  Washington was awful too. I mean, they won, but they had one couple of nice plays to McLaurin deep and Wild Bill had a touchdown. But like, it's, that team, they're done too. So I thought last week Eagles, Raiders, and here's how I saw it happening. I'm like Eagles fans woke up to snow. It was kind of surprising Sunday. They had to dig out their cars, annoying, get to the stadium, one o'clock start, first play from scrimmage, Saquon goes one yard. And I swear on the broadcast, you can hear like a smattering of boos. And then they went on to have their best game in like two years and give up 75 yards. But if they had not performed that way, I'd be doing like DEFCON 5, the whole thing with the Eagles.

• 46:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but who were they playing though?

• 46:14Speaker 01

  I know, but I think just getting that out and like doing that and dominating 31 to nothing and having the defense shut them down, having the offense, everyone get their touches, everyone do everything. I almost feel like that game was important. They've already been through the record like, and now, okay, let's go kick the shit out of Washington also.

• 46:34Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 46:35Speaker 01

  I thought it was important.

• 46:36Bill Simmons?

  I'm not going to mark it down.

• 46:39Bill Simmons?

  I can't believe I have to pick against the Pats, but we're under 500 and Ringer 107. And you gotta do what you gotta do. The Ravens are minus two and a half was the line that locked for this game against the Pats.

• 46:54Bill Simmons?

  I just think this is a bad spot for the Pats. And the weirdest thing about this game, they don't 100% need it. They could still win the division just by winning the last two.

• 47:05Bill Simmons?

  And this game, the Ravens, every game now is like their season's on the line. They're the healthiest they've been in a while. Pats still don't have Milton Williams. They still don't have Will Campbell. The defensive stats for them, the best, the last four weeks, especially some of the advanced stuff is really, really rough. Their ability to move the ball when they really need to, like Diggs has disappeared the last few weeks.

• 47:27Speaker 01

  I know where he is.

• 47:28Bill Simmons?

  And they've gotten some home run plays from Henderson and they're still having trouble. You know, putting games away.

• 47:34Speaker 01

  They only ran the ball three times in the second half.

• 47:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so this line being under three, I just think is wrong with the, if it was January and I had my team back, I'm in. If I have Will Campbell, Milton Williams for this game, I'm in. But I think, I think this is a game where you're gonna feel that a little bit.

• 47:53Speaker 01

  Patriots fan.

• 47:53Bill Simmons?

  There's a weird Patriots at Baltimore history too.

• 47:56Speaker 01

  I was gonna say this, I was just gonna say this to you. Patriots fan scale, you know, that entire run, Baltimore was the thorn in the side. I mean, everyone would say that it was Indianapolis, but truly it was Baltimore.

• 48:07Bill Simmons?

  07 game, we shouldn't have won that Monday game. That was like a fucking miracle and we probably would have been better off losing that game.

• 48:13Speaker 01

  Rex Ryan, the defensive coordinator, all that.

• 48:17Bill Simmons?

  But I think they, I think they can run the ball and the Pats in this game without Milton Williams. Cause you've been able to see these teams just go right up the middle. And that's what the Ravens do.

• 48:26Speaker 01

  And then Derrick Henry shows up and you're like, oh shit, Derrick Henry. Like they have Derrick Henry. Look, they flexed this game to Sunday night. Ravens have lost some terrible games recently at home.

• 48:38Bill Simmons?

  They have.

• 48:39Speaker 01

  I mean, that, that Thanksgiving night game to the Bengals is, I have family, all Baltimore people. I mean, it was as if, all right, pack it up, season's done, let's, what are we doing? So now you get another bite at it. I thought last week was huge, shutting out the Bengals, getting the kind of vibe back. Lamar looked healthy, he looked good. I would pick the Ravens here, and I think your point is, is wise in that it matters a lot for Baltimore. Obviously, they only get in if Pittsburgh and them figure their stuff out. Patriots, it's not do or die. Of course, it's a nice to have, but you don't need this to make the playoffs. You certainly don't need this for the AFC East title.

• 49:13Bill Simmons?

  I've had a pretty good feel for them this year. Like even when they were at Buffalo. I thought the line was too high. I really thought they had a chance to be in that game. Last week, I was really nervous about the game with the injuries and didn't want to pick against the Pats, but now we have no choice because we're way under 500.

• 49:30Speaker 01

  Could we do a Ravens Patriots all time? Because we can go through it. There was the Billy Cundiff game where Lee Evans drops the pass. You guys end up going to the Super Bowl. The following year, you're up early. They come all the way back, beat you in Foxborough. And then there was that same season, a Sunday night game early on where the Ravens beat the Patriots, like week three in Baltimore. And then there's the Ray Rice game in the playoffs, obviously 20, whatever that was.

• 49:56Bill Simmons?

  Thanks for bringing all these up.

• 49:57Speaker 01

  But you guys have also gotten their number a bunch of times, too.

• 50:00Bill Simmons?

  Well, the 07 game was legendary for just pulling that out of the ass. But they, my favorite Pats win, non-Super Bowl, I think of the entire 2010s, other than the Chiefs.

• 50:11Speaker 01

  The double pass?

• 50:11Bill Simmons?

  Other than the D4 game, was that Ravens game?

• 50:14Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 50:15Bill Simmons?

  Because I really do think the Ravens were better that year and the Pats just outwitted them and.

• 50:20Speaker 01

  Ravens were up early in that game, what, 14?

• 50:22Bill Simmons?

  They were 14, twice.

• 50:24Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 50:25Bill Simmons?

  And the Pats just, they just kind of figured out how to fuck them over. And they, remember they ran the weird.

• 50:31Speaker 01

  They ran the weird formation and Carvalho's losing his mind on the sidelines. And then the next play, you get Amendola and Edelman.

• 50:37Bill Simmons?

  Unbelievable crowd for that game. They're singing the outfield before minutes left during the timeout.

• 50:41Speaker 01

  Were you in the building that day? I was in the press box.

• 50:42Bill Simmons?

  No, I was watching home. It was a great one, though. I loved that game.

• 50:45Speaker 01

  And I feel like they haven't had a great matchup in years. It's kind of cool. Ravens, Patriots, week 16 on a Sunday night or Saturday, whatever it is. Yeah, Sunday night. I'm excited.

• 50:55Bill Simmons?

  Lamar has been, there were signs of life last week. Maybe this could be a Lamar versus May. We'll see. And the other problem with them is the tight ends, which have been an issue for the Pats all year. And this is one of the best tight end teams.

• 51:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 51:11Bill Simmons?

  I don't like the matchup. Broncos minus three in Denver against the Jaguars. This to me is another overvoted game. The Jags have padded the numbers against some bad teams. I think we both believe in this Broncos team. And I just, I'm going to go against Trevor Lawrence until he wins a game like this. And if he wins this one, hats off. This is now a new Trevor Lawrence. I'll admit it. I'll admit defeat, but I don't see it. I just.

• 51:40Speaker 01

  You said something.

• 51:41Bill Simmons?

  I'm waiting for him to come out, the real Trevor Lawrence.

• 51:44Speaker 01

  Two weeks ago, when they beat the Colts. You had an awesome, you picked up on something that I did not pick up on and you were a guest with Sal. And so it was in the moment, Sunday night, you're like, did you hear Trevor's press conference afterwards? And he did the whole thing about how the national media wants to talk about other teams.

• 52:00Bill Simmons?

  Oh, that nobody believes in us.

• 52:01Speaker 01

  They don't talk, even in our division, you know, we're winning all these games, they don't talk about. And I'm like, oh, Bill's right. And then I talked to folks in Jacksonville and it's not just Trevor Lawrence. It is their identity of we're not going to get respect until we take respect and the whole thing. And this week, Sean Payton innocuous comment says, you know, they're doing a lot of good things. Well, you know, and I know no one sees them, they're a small market team and like Jackson, like that's all they needed.

• 52:29Bill Simmons?

  Are you going Jags plus three here?

• 52:31Speaker 01

  I'm not, I'm not, but I think, you know, I think I've said this before on your pod. Liam's, you know, 38 years old, Grant Udinski, the offensive coordinator is 29 years old. Anthony Campanelli is like this amazing Jersey guy, defensive coordinator, fired up dude, 40 years old. The GM is 34, like they're just a bunch of young, like, like super amped up, high energy guys. And this quarterback finally feeling the love, finally feeling confident. And that quote that you provided me, which I didn't even hear because I wasn't listening to Jaguars press conferences. I was like, oh shit, Trevor Lawrence is a little bit of some shit to him. Like, and it was nice to hear.

• 53:11Speaker 01

  And then last week against the Jets, I know it's the Jets, 350 yards, five touchdowns, perfect QB rating. And like afterwards, just, I mean, they have been feeling themselves. So I, I'm curious to see how they show up to a team that hasn't lost a game at home in two years. And the Broncos and everyone's already crowning like, what are the Jaguars got? This is a good one.

• 53:32Bill Simmons?

  And a team that can lock down the one seed, basically.

• 53:35Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 53:37Bill Simmons?

  One thing I want to see with the Jags and the, one of the reasons I like the Broncos is the Broncos and the Texans are the two AFC teams. That if you're a receiver. Or a running back coming out of the backfield, your eyes are in the back of your head.

• 53:49Speaker 01

  No doubt.

• 53:50Bill Simmons?

  Like, think about what the Texans did to the Chiefs in that game. They basically changed the course of the Chiefs' season with all the hits they laid on them. And same thing last week with the Chiefs too, where they just got the shit kicked out of them. I want to see how the Jags respond to that. If the Broncos are like, because they can do it. They can turn it on, they can pound, they can, and I don't know if the Jags are like just a fun, we'll put up points, but if it's going to get really physical, what do you got? And then I don't know if I trust Lawrence. So we'll see. Maybe he'll, maybe he'll stick it to me.

• 54:23Speaker 01

  Houston and Denver are cool in that the NFL is so, it's gone so favoring the offense and the way the rules are and the way that, you know, it's just built, the way the coaches coach all the, and then you've got Denver and Houston, two teams that are very clearly defense first, offense second. And in this weird topsy-turvy year where every week another team is the number one team on someone's power rankings, can a defensive team in 2025 win a Super Bowl? And I know you could say, well, Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton are good. Sean Payton might be an offensive coach. That is a defensive first team. And Houston is like way defense, little bit of

• 55:05Speaker 01

  offense. Those two teams are fascinating as we get to the playoffs and what they can do over the final few weeks.

• 55:12Bill Simmons?

  So you don't like Titans plus three and you don't like Washington plus seven?

• 55:15Speaker 01

  No.

• 55:16Bill Simmons?

  And you didn't like Browns plus 10 and a half and we don't want to bet on Quinn Ewers?

• 55:20Speaker 01

  Quinn Ewers.

• 55:20Bill Simmons?

  Does that mean, does that mean we're left with Bucks minus three, Panthers taking Carolina plus three, coming off a loss to Tyler Shuck? They're taking the Bucks with all their receivers back?

• 55:32Speaker 01

  Bucks, I think Bucks.

• 55:33Bill Simmons?

  The Bucks with the chemistry questions?

• 55:36Speaker 01

  With Mike Evans.

• 55:37Bill Simmons?

  After blowing a terrible game?

• 55:39Speaker 01

  In the tunnel.

• 55:40Bill Simmons?

  Blowing a terrible game and the defenders yelling at each other?

• 55:43Speaker 01

  I said it last week, worst loss all season was that game. The Falcons had 19 penalties against them.

• 55:50Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 55:50Speaker 01

  And they lost that game at home with an eliminated Falcons team and my favorite, like Drake London not even on the field, Kyle Pitts goes for a billion yards, like terrible loss. So bounce back. I gotta think they gotta, they have to. They're, they should.

• 56:07Bill Simmons?

  All right. So that's your pick. That's what you're contributing.

• 56:09Speaker 01

  With not great conviction.

• 56:12Bill Simmons?

  Well, that doesn't make me feel good. Tampa minus three.

• 56:15Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 56:16Bill Simmons?

  I don't think the Panthers are good. I'm just gonna throw that out there, too. It was shocking to watch the Saints just go up and down the field on them.

• 56:23Speaker 01

  You were talking to McShay about it. I mean, Tyler Shuck, there's a lot to like about that guy. And he, he was, he outplayed Bryce Young when it mattered.

• 56:33Bill Simmons?

  All right. So we're going excellence for Ringer 107 brought to you with the lines from FanDuel Sportsbook. As always, we're going to do old man Philip Rivers plus five and a half with the Colts against the Niners at home in a must win game. Great crowd.

• 56:51Bill Simmons?

  I think that's a three point game one way or the other. Sadly, the Ravens minus two and a half against the Pats.

• 56:58Bill Simmons?

  It's fine. Pats can lose this game.

• 56:59Speaker 01

  As long as you're okay with it.

• 57:00Bill Simmons?

  I'm not gonna sweat it out. I don't like the matchup. I don't like the injuries on the Pat's side, and I don't like the week that this game is happening. Broncos minus three against the Jaguars. We're acknowledging the Jaguars. Nobody believes in us, but I think a lot of people will be on the Jags this week.

• 57:16Speaker 01

  I do, too.

• 57:16Bill Simmons?

  And you could argue that line should be a little higher considering the Broncos haven't lost in three months. Bucks minus three against the Panthers. It's more a pick against Carolina. And then last but not least, a little parlay Saturday night. Bears plus four and a half with the under 53 and a half.

• 57:32Speaker 01

  Bill, I love those picks.

• 57:33Bill Simmons?

  Those are, those, I think we ended in a good place. You talked me out of two possible stinkers.

• 57:37Speaker 01

  I think we're great.

• 57:38Bill Simmons?

  House would have done that. I think House would have just walked me into traffic.

• 57:41Speaker 01

  Kind of want House on this. I miss House. It's great.

• 57:44Bill Simmons?

  I know. Well, House is asleep. There's no, House is lying like this, snoring right now. He missed the fourth quarter. That was today's Ringer 107. It's brought to you by FanDuel. Don't forget, odds are subject to change. That's it. Hey, good luck on Get Up. Try out the Peter, Peter's Pans segment that I gave you.

• 58:01Speaker 01

  They love puns on that show.

• 58:02Bill Simmons?

  Peter's Pans, where you pan three things.

• 58:04Speaker 01

  I like that idea.

• 58:06Bill Simmons?

  Or Peter's Principles.

• 58:11Bill Simmons?

  Saint Peter. So your four prayers for the week? I like that one. Let's bring in Saint Peter. That's good. I'm trying to think what I can't. Sneaky Pete. Sneaky Pete. How about for Pete's sake? For Pete's sake? And the graphic is just you like this?

• 58:31Bill Simmons?

  Can't wait. I can't wait to watch you tomorrow. Six hours. Like grievances? Like, I can't stand officials. Like, is that what it is? For Pete's sake? Yeah, it's like your version of you've been mossed. Yes. You're like, why are you punting on fourth and one for Pete's sake? Why are you wearing a backwards visor? Yes, all that stuff. Yes. This guy gets cleaned out by the wide receiver who goes out of bounds and takes out his legs. Why aren't you looking at the field for Pete's sake? Why aren't we talking about Danny Wolf and the Nets? We're doing a lot of visuals here. Pitch it. Pitch it tomorrow. All right, Peter Schrager, thanks for staying up with us. Great to see you as always. You're the best, Bill. Thank you.

• 59:15Bill Simmons?

  Hey, it's week 16 and FanDuel wants me to make some NFL predictions as we enter a crucial week of football. Ring a 107. Just not enough here. Here are three week 16 predictions using FanDuel's odds. Does Myles Garrett get 1.5 sacks on Sunday and set the single season sack record against Josh Allen? The market's at plus 180 for him to do it. I would vote no on that one. I think he gets it a week later. The AFC number one seed battle, which of these QBs is able to throw for two plus TDs? Bo Nix, minus 132, or Trevor Lawrence, plus 128? I'm going Bo Nix, minus 132. Longest rush in the Sunday night game, Derrick Henry, over

• 59:54Bill Simmons?

  under 19 and a half, or Trevion Henderson? 14 and a half Henderson. Will Rivers go over under his passing prop of 150.5 against the Niners? I am going under.

• 1:00:10Bill Simmons?

  For old man Phil Rivers. You can bet all these, our Ringer 107 picks and so much more on FanDuel. Play your game. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you. So they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun? Sometimes earlier than expected? Sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead? But what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later.

• 1:00:53Bill Simmons?

  In all fairness, though, hopefully your team doesn't go to Cancun. 1-2-3 Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save, savings vary. All right, we are back with a special part of today's episode. It's brought to you by Michelob Ultra. We love Michelob Ultra right here. As the official beer partner of the NBA, they know the best moments on or off the court are served cold. So let's crack open a six pack. Cause we're going to dig into the most buzzworthy NBA stuff that is happening right now. And we'll do our superior play of the day as well. All right, I'm going to start here.

• 1:01:34Bill Simmons?

  So I don't want to start grim here on the Michelob Ultra six pack, but OKC killed the Clippers tonight. OKC is the defending champs. They're 25 and 2. The Clippers are now 6 and 21. They're tied for third worst. They have to give OKC their first round pick in 26 and they have to do a first round pick swap for them in 27. And as you know, I am the trade machine Picasso. And I talked about this a little bit with Zach on Tuesday. What do you do if you're the Clippers?

• 1:02:05Bill Simmons?

  It's it's checkmated me. It's like in Goodwill. I was watching Goodwill Hunting with my son a couple of days ago. And when nobody can do the the formula problem that he has, he leaves out in the hallway and then Will Hunting does and he solves it. And he's asking the people in the class, did you guys figure this out? Did you guys solve this? And people are like, no way. That wasn't me. I think the Clippers thing is like that thing that we don't have Will Hunting to come in and save this. Their only trade asset really is Zubats? And what are you getting for Zubats ultimately? And by the way, if you're trading him, your defense is going to be worse. Zach, I tried to test drive some hardened trades with him

• 1:02:48Bill Simmons?

  the other day. And he was just poo pooing all of them. I don't think anyone wants Kawhi at 50 million a year and never know he's gonna play. And, you know, I mentioned this to Max Kellerman the other day, especially when you throw in the Chris Paul embarrassment. Ramona Shelburne wrote a piece about that. Every time you think this Clippers situation can't get worse, it feels like it's gotten worse. And they're so uninspiring. They're playing the Lakers at home on Saturday night. It's gonna be like three force Laker fans in the Intuit Dome. I think at some point, the punishment is gonna come down, maybe before All-Star Weekend. That's, I think, there's whispers about that. We'll see. We'll see if they if they actually do it. I just don't know what you do. And it's a pretty rare situation.

• 1:03:32Bill Simmons?

  Brooklyn was in this in the mid 2010s, where the Celtics had their picks. And at some point, they like, they made a pretty creative D'Angelo Russell trade to get a pick. And I don't know if the Clippers are wired like that. I think they seem to blindly think this is gonna turn around. And yet, they won't fire the coach. They gave Lawrence Frank, it seems like they gave him an extension, which feels like it's, you know, a little bit of a, hmm, we have this thing happening. And here's an extension. I don't know, suspicious extension for considering that the Norm Powell trade was probably the worst trade since the Luca trade. It's just, I don't know how you fix this.

• 1:04:16Bill Simmons?

  I just don't. So that would be my first one in the six pack and it's depressing. I'm out of answers. I don't know how you fix the Clippers. Gahal asked me, uh, my producer before is like, I hope the Clippers, I hope you have it fixed. I don't. And if somebody has it fixed out there, God bless you. But I think it has to be using Zubots and attaching him to Harden and seeing what you can get. Like, could Minnesota go in a tailspin? And then all of a sudden be thinking about Gobert and Randall for Harden and Zubots? They're not doing that now, but maybe in two weeks if they lost some games, they start thinking about it. I, I think that's, that's the only hope is that other teams get more desperate and start looking at your assets.

• 1:04:57Bill Simmons?

  But yikes. All right. Second thing on the six pack, the Christmas games. So the last four, there's five games. I'm going to skip the first one for a second. The last four are really cool. Spurs, Thunder, which I think is the, the game I want to see more than any other game at all times. Dallas, Golden State? Sure. Golden State, what's going on with them? They're two games under 500. They lost tonight and I don't know what the fix is with them either, but they're playing Dallas. Flag, they're running crunch time plays for him. Davis has rejuvenated him. I still think Dallas is going to be heard from as a playing team, especially if Kyrie comes back. So that's, that's the third game. Houston Lakers? That's a great game. And then Minnesota, Denver, we get the Joker as the last one.

• 1:05:42Bill Simmons?

  So that's a fun Christmas. All the NFL games that look like they're all going to suck.

• 1:05:49Bill Simmons?

  But then you have the first game and it's Cleveland, New York. And if you think your family's dysfunctional, uh, let me bring over the Cavs. Have some dysfunction at your Christmas table with the Cleveland Cavaliers, who sit solemnly and solemnly on their bench as they're down 10, wondering what happened. And there's, I went over on them on 56 and a half. That leads me to my third six pack. Because it's possible the Cavs could ruin Christmas or might make a trade before then.

• 1:06:19Bill Simmons?

  Did the Pacers break the Cavs? The Cavs were awesome last year. They won like 64 games, 63 games, something like that. They had a long win streak. They figured out the Garland Mitchell thing. Mobley took a step up. They seemed happy. Kenny Atkinson is getting coach of the year buzz. It seems like it was a million years ago. And then they play the Pacers. Garland's hurt. Mobley misses a game. The Pacers hit a couple ridiculous shots. And by the end of the series, you're like, yeah, the Pacers are for whatever reason, better. And the Cleveland Cavaliers have not recovered since. Here's another team that it's really hard to fix. They're 22 million over the second apron. And I bring this up because now that the season is going on, I was thinking about this last night.

• 1:07:03Bill Simmons?

  I had them on a smaller TV with no sound. I'm watching the bigger TV, but I have the Cavs game going. And they just are losing double figures and they're cutting the bench. Max Druce is sitting there with his new long hair. He's just saw him like sitting next to a couple teammates. Then it goes to Mitchell. He looks just bummed out. The guys on the court look bummed out. And you're like, whoa, what do we do with this? Because this team can't trade. First of all, you're way over the second apron. You can only do one for one trades. You can only take back less money than you can send out. The second apron, so I did the math. I hope this is right. I found this on the internets. It will cost them 163 million in second apron

• 1:07:45Bill Simmons?

  taxes if they if they just keep the number of the roster the way it is. So that would mean it would be a $400 million season for them to potentially be like a seventh seed and then lose in round one. They have a couple outs. They can waive Wade and Porter before January 7th. Saves them about 3 million. Only 19 million to go. The cap rules are so dumb that Charlotte is 21 million under the cap. Jared Allen makes $20 million. And yet the rules say they couldn't just trade Jared Allen to Charlotte for nothing. That is somehow illegal with the cap. Here's who they could trade him to.

• 1:08:27Bill Simmons?

  The Boston Celtics, who have a $22 million trade exception, who are the only team who could trade for Jared Allen and take off the second apron off Cleveland's hands. But guess what? They're not going to do that because right now they're 7.8 million under the second apron. And if they just did that trade, they'd then have to figure out how to get rid of 11.3 million, which would be Simons, they'd have to take less money back. Good luck. I can't figure out where to move Jared Allen. They could do some whittle down trades, like they could trade Struce to Utah for Niang, send them some picks and save 8 million. Still doesn't get them close to getting rid of 22. They could trade Lonzo in Atlanta's trade exception. They could trade Struce back to Miami.

• 1:09:11Bill Simmons?

  They have a big trade exception. That stuff that usually doesn't happen during the season. Teams aren't anxious to help out other teams for role players. They could trade Garland, but the one for one roles that they're handicapped with, they're really screwed. Like here's a trade they could do. They could trade Garland to Washington for Chris Middleton's contract and picks, which Washington might think about, but that would only save them 6.2 million. They'd still be way under the apron. There's, they could trade, if Boston took Allen, which I don't think they will, even with Tatum coming back, even with them having the expectations that they might actually be pretty good. I don't think they're going back over the second apron.

• 1:09:52Bill Simmons?

  But if they could get under the second apron somehow, they could then do three for threes, two for twos, they could go after anybody. They go after LeBron, for God's sakes. But right now they can't do that. And that leads to the other option they have, which is the nuclear option, which would be to trade Donovan Mitchell. And even in that case, it's really hard because they would have to get under the second apron before it made sense to get a bunch of players back that teams would have to trade to get Donovan Mitchell. So if I were the Cavs, I would have a team meeting and say, look, you guys seem really unhappy. I don't know what's happened to us this year, but we can't make any trades. So this is our team. So get your shit together. Should we hire a team therapist? Let's do it. Should we all get drunk together?

• 1:10:37Bill Simmons?

  Should we watch The Shawshank Redemption and see if hope is a good thing for us? We're not making trades. This is our team. We're sorry. We're spending a lot of money on it. Can you guys play better? That's probably the answer. Anyway, get ready to spend Christmas morning with them. Fourth thing on the six pack. The Shingun crunch time stuff is pretty interesting in Houston and they lost a game tonight in OT against New Orleans that I was watching on a TV with no sound as I watched the Rams game. I was watching a lot of basketball as I was watching the Rams game. I'm a multitasker. I know, I know I'm getting older, still throwing my fastball, still watching three games at

• 1:11:20Bill Simmons?

  once, still got it. They go to Shingun a lot at the end of these games. To the point that I'm starting to watch the Durant body language a little bit where he's like, I'm Kevin Durant, what are we doing? And Shingun's been really good. And in Denver the other night, which was a great game, he won the game for them and, and made a couple of big plays down the stretch, but it feels like they've tilted a little too far towards Shingun, not far enough toward the, I mean, Thompson could beat anybody off the dribble. And oh, by the way, we have Kevin Durant, who's probably going to score 35,000 points in his career, maybe more. So I would like to see them fix the calibration on that versus

• 1:12:00Bill Simmons?

  what I feel like is starting to happen where it's like this is now Shingun's situation at the end of the games. I think it's really hard to run all your stuff through a center. Now, the overtime game tonight came down to Reed Shepard missed a couple of wide open threes that would have sent in a second OT, but I mentioned this because I'm watching these Rockets games going, I can't believe they're not giving it to KD more. And I think what's getting lost in this KD season and just in this season in general, and maybe we just take older guys for granted, but KD's having one of the better old guy seasons of all time and so is Steph Curry. I went and looked it up. So what's the definition of an old guy? To me, it's like when I was growing up,

• 1:12:43Bill Simmons?

  John Havlicek was playing when he was like 37, 38. He seemed really, really old. And then Kareem in the 1985 finals, when they beat the Celtics, games that I went to sadly. Kareem was old, he's huge bald spot in back of his head. I don't think he had shaved his head yet. Maybe he had at that point, but regardless, he was just like old guy Kareem. And then he just annihilated Robert Parish in the, in the finals. And it was notable because he had won the finals MVP in 1971 with the Bucks. And then he won it again in 1985 with the Lakers. It was like, oh my God, 14 year span between finals MVPs. This is amazing. He's so old. Well, Curry's 37, averaging 29.6 a game before tonight.

• 1:13:28Bill Simmons?

  And KD is 37, averaging 24.8. And I mention this because only a handful of the guys have ever been 37 years or older and averaged 20 points a game. LeBron, multiple times. Steph Curry, Durant, Kareem, Karl Malone, Michael Jordan on the Wizards. That's the entire list. And with Durant, I don't think anybody feels like he's old. You would never say, he's getting up there, he's getting old. Curry's starting to seem a little creaky. Not that he's not still great, but he, he's wearing it. Especially at the end of these games, you're like, man, Steph seems exhausted. Oof, I don't know if Steph could do this for six months.

• 1:14:10Bill Simmons?

  Durant just seems exactly the same. And this year, 24 and 8, 24.8, five rebounds a game. Couple other old guys that still kept it. Nash on the 2012 Suns was still 11 assists a game. Chris Paul on the 23 Suns, he was fine, 14 and 9. And then Stockton did it for a long time, 13 and 8. But I was thinking about my Mount Rushmore for, or my starting five for, for old guys. LeBron, obviously, Kareem.

• 1:14:44Bill Simmons?

  I think Steph,

• 1:14:47Bill Simmons?

  KD, or Karl Malone. Right, you know, I've always tried during my career as a voice and a writer and a podcaster to discount Karl Malone anytime I could, including creating the 42 Club. That was the way to get him out of the most 42 Club, points, assists, rebounds in the playoffs, 12 games or more. I made it 42 because it was the way to cut out Karl Malone the most times. So obviously I'm going to cut him out here. And then, uh, let's go.

• 1:15:20Bill Simmons?

  Go John Stockton, just so we have a point guard. So Stockton, LeBron, now Curry's my point guard.

• 1:15:28Bill Simmons?

  Do I really have to put Karl Malone in there? He's pretty good in those Utah seasons. I hate it. Fine, Karl Malone, LeBron, Steph Curry, Karl Malone, Kevin Durant, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. We'll go, we'll go big lineup. But I think that would be my old guy, uh, old guy starting five. Kevin Durant, secretly old, 2007 draft. It's a million years ago. Seattle had a team in 2007.

• 1:15:55Bill Simmons?

  Last, uh, oh, fifth one for the, for the six pack. Still doing this, Michael Oboltra. What's the best location for the NBA Cup semifinals and finals? Because I don't think anybody enjoys Vegas. I didn't want to go. I got, I could have gone on Saturday night, could have gone on Tuesday. I'm kind of over Vegas. When they changed the blackjack to six to five, I took it as a personal front.

• 1:16:21Bill Simmons?

  On top of it, it's just, I don't know, maybe I've just gone there too many times, but the, the thought of just coming in to watch some basketball with some, some half ass crowds, I couldn't get behind. But then the games turned out really good and I was actually mad that I didn't go to the San Antonio OKC game. The finals were great. But I was thinking like, as a lot of people were, what would be a better location? Cause I, I think we're good with Vegas. We go there for summer league. We don't need to go there for the NBA cup too. Get, get Vegas to fuck out. You need it to be a place that you know you can get the arena. People were talking about, uh, college stuff. So like you do the semis at Duke and you do the finals in UNC. I'm not against that for one year. Indiana University gets the semis, the Pacers stadium gets the finals, that would be fun.

• 1:17:05Bill Simmons?

  The only problem is if the Pacers got into the finals, then home field advantage. You can do Barclays semis, MSG finals. Fine, still an advantage for the Knicks. Won't be an advantage for the Nets because it's still never been the NBA Cup. The two I settled on, I like the idea of a Kentucky Louisville combo and not just because it would be great for Jay Kyle, man. Kentucky for the semis and then Louisville for the finals. Or vice versa Louisville for the semis, Kentucky for the finals. Kentucky because of the Derby kind of built, you know, for in either venue to accommodate like big crowds. So I thought that was fun, but here's where I've landed.

• 1:17:48Bill Simmons?

  And I think this is a really good idea and as usually I'll be the only one who sticks up for the good people of Seattle. Where I have to do a live rewatchables at some point this spring because I love Seattle or a live basketball podcast or something. Because those guys had their team taken away and it and I'm still pissed about it. And now that team is probably going to be the best team of the 21st century. Fuck. Seattle semifinals, Vancouver finals. We go Pacific Northwest in two cities where they took teams away from. And I think that's the answer. Everybody loves going to Seattle. Everyone loves going to Vancouver. If you talk to anybody who covered the league in the 90s or the early 2000s.

• 1:18:29Bill Simmons?

  They always said like the best part, any road trip they had when they were covering a team was the Portland, Seattle, Vancouver, Pacific Northwest. Was always their favorite. So let's bring it back. Seattle and Vancouver, I vote for that next year. Get up the semis in Vancouver and the finals in Seattle or vice versa. I don't really care. I like paying homage to two cities that lost their teams for no reason in the fan base. Vancouver just got fucked from the get go with everybody running those teams. And Seattle got run over by the OKC owners, David Stern and Howard Schultz, who owns Starbucks and has a kajillion dollars and was a complete coward and sold the team to people from OKC who were going to move it. And he probably knew it and didn't care.

• 1:19:14Bill Simmons?

  So let's at least give them the NBA Cup. That's my fifth thing. Last but not least, two teams that I think are looking pretty good. That I would just watch from a league pass standpoint going forward. The Hornets. Miller's back, LaMelo played tonight. I shouldn't be excited when LaMelo plays, but that's where we're at with LaMelo. But they put up 66 points in 17 minutes against Atlanta, held on late for a win. Really fun style. They're one big guy away. They need like a rebounder or somebody who can have their hands up. I really wish they could just trade for Jared Allen. I wish the CBA was better, but they have all their own firsts. They have a 2027 Dallas first, top two protected.

• 1:19:56Bill Simmons?

  And they have a Miami first that becomes unprotected at some point during the decade because of the Terry Rozier trade, which the league refuses to acknowledge was shady. So, good coach, Charles Lee, good new owners, respected front office all of a sudden. And I just like the spot they're in and I love watching them. The other team,

• 1:20:19Bill Simmons?

  the New Orleans Pelicans, all of a sudden shit's going down. They beat Houston tonight, which is just incredible. Houston's good. Queen, Murphy, Herb Jones, Poole's coming off the bench now. Like all of a sudden they have what looks to be an NBA team. And I mentioned this because if I was Atlanta, they have the New Orleans pick, the pick that we all think. Now, New Orleans has the worst record in the West, 6 and 22. And one of the top five worst records. I don't think it's going to stay that way. Now that they have everybody back, whether Zion plays or not, I think, you know, there was a John Ewing always posts like the spreads for different things. I like following him for gambling.

• 1:21:00Bill Simmons?

  And he had the NBA records against the spread and New Orleans had like, I think the best record against the spread or one of the best records. So they're constantly covering, they're losing close games and they're about to have a breakthrough. And if I was Atlanta, I would trade that pick right now. Atlanta has the Porzingis expiring. They have a huge trade exception. They have a good team. They have, they got to figure out the Trey Young thing, but they probably need one more wing shooter. This is their chance to get somebody really good. I think they should go after Giannis. I've been saying that from day one. But I would put that New Orleans pick on the table because two months from now, I really genuinely think New Orleans will not be one of the five worst teams in the league. They have too much talent. Unless they go the other way and they trade Trey Murphy and they start getting rid of guys, but I don't know if they will.

• 1:21:44Bill Simmons?

  And I will say that Pelicans crowd tonight, granted I was watching without sound, but everybody was standing and going nuts the whole game. So keep fighting for your team because I think you're going to have to. Anyway.

• 1:21:57Bill Simmons?

  Elena,

• 1:22:00Bill Simmons?

  listen to me, trade the pick.

• 1:22:03Bill Simmons?

  That's the last thing on the six pack. If you want even more, you can grab yourself a pack of Michelob Ultra right here. Ultra getting you closer to the action with a chance to win exclusive prizes, including courtside tickets and more. Michelob Ultra, spears worth playing for. Enter now at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 25 to 26. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21 plus. Begins on October 1st, 2025. Ends on June 30th, 2026. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com/courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. That's it for the podcast today. Thanks to Gahou and Eduardo as well. Thanks to Peter Schreger for staying up late. Don't forget about the new music box, about the Counting Crows. It's great. Go check it out on HBO Max.

• 1:22:47Bill Simmons?

  Don't forget, we did two rewatchables this week. We did the short thing on Wednesday and we did High Fidelity on Monday. If you want stuff to listen to over the weekend. Enjoy the weekend. I will see you on Sunday night. Obviously going to be live with Sal coming off Ravens Patriots. See you then.

• 1:23:17Bill Simmons?

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• 1:24:00Bill Simmons?

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