Pod Insights The Bill Simmons Podcast Belichick’s ‘Legacy,' a Texas NBA Gauntlet, Boston’s 3 Party, Ja’s Big Season, and Week 6 NFL Picks With Kirk Goldsberry, Chris Vernon, and Joe House About this episode The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Kirk Goldsberry to check in on the exciting Texas NBA teams, react to the NBA GM survey, and talk about the trends around the league (8:39). Then, Chris Vernon joins Bill and House to discuss the Grizzlies and other NBA topics before making their Ringer 107 picks (01:03:57).
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Kirk Goldsberry, Joe House, and Chris Vernon
Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo
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Transcript 24,337 words · 7 speakers
Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
0:00 Bill Simmons? It's football season and Uber Eats is delivering deals every single day. This week, buy a four-piece signature chicken from Popeyes and get another one free on Uber Eats. When your watch party gets hungry, order in and keep everyone's attention where it matters on the game. Order a four-piece signature chicken from Popeyes. Get another one free. No matter who scores big tonight, you'll score great deals on Uber Eats all season long. Because it's not football without food. It really isn't. Popeyes offer valid through November 1st. Add eligible menu item to order prior to checkout. Taxes, fees and terms apply. Product availability varies by region. Exclusions may apply. See app for details. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We are also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network.
0:45 Bill Simmons? I put up a new rewatchable. It's Monday, we did Jeremiah Johnson for Robert Redford Month. Monday, another Redford movie, a little more modern this time around, Sneakers. People love this movie. This is, I think, probably the most requested Redford movie ever since we said we're doing Redford Month. So that's going to be on Monday and it's going to be three people, including myself, who have never done a podcast together. So there's your hint for that, but you have a whole weekend to watch Sneakers. Speaking of the Ringer Podcast Network, we're launching a new podcast called Welcome to None of My Business. It is with Sophia Benoit and Kelsey June Jensen. And this is the first time we have gone into the kind of sex life advice area.
1:30 Bill Simmons? We'll see how it goes. I think, I actually think this has a high upside for our pod, but we will see. As always, podcasts are about chemistry and the host, not the idea. And this is a good idea and we think the chemistry and the hosts are going to be good. So check that one out. I think it's launching either this weekend or early next week, but you can subscribe, follow on Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. So there you go. I wanted to say one thing about Bill Belichick, because I've been watching people just delightedly pile on him. Look, I'm biased. He was my, he was my favorite football coach. We won six Super Bowls with him, had, had two plus. Decades with him and two of those decades were fantastic, but I keep saying, I don't know
2:15 Bill Simmons? how this North Carolina thing is going to go. Obviously it's not going well. It's probably even going worse than we thought. And will he be coaching there next year? If I had to bet my life one way or the other, I would bet that he will not be coaching there next year. And I would bet that it's probably headed toward an Urban Meyer Jacksonville. This was a bad idea. Let's just get out of this. Maybe NFL coaches shouldn't coach college. Maybe college coaches shouldn't coach NFL. I don't know the answer. I do know Belichick's in his mid 70s and more importantly, I do know this. Nothing that happens to him at North Carolina, short of him pulling his pants down and tweaking on fentanyl on the sidelines
2:56 Bill Simmons? during an ACC game, is going to change everything he did when he was at the Patriots and all the stuff he did in the NFL. It doesn't really matter. And what is annoying to me about all of this, we always talk about legacy in sports. Now, I'm, I'm not saying I'm innocent. I've certainly brought it up a few times, but it's legacy, legacy, legacy. What is this going to mean for his legacy? We don't even understand how to talk about legacy. We don't know what a legacy is because think about some of the great players, coaches we've had over, you know, the last 100 plus years of professional sports. Did it matter how the end happened for a lot of them? Do you care that Babe Ruth played for the Boston Braves? Do you care that Vince Lombardi coached the Washington Redskins? Do you care that Michael Jordan played for the Washington Wizards for two years, didn't make the playoffs
3:41 Bill Simmons? either year? Can you name all the teams Wayne Gretzky played for in hockey after the Oilers and after the Kings? Cause you can keep going. It was like the Rangers and the Blues and a couple others. This happens over and over again. Can you name all the people Muhammad Ali fought after the third Frazier fight? When, you know, I can name them because I was there watching most of them. He was my first favorite fighter, but do you remember after Larry Holmes, the most depressing fight in the history of boxing, that he fought again? That he fought in the Bahamas against Trevor Berbik and he was even more depressing? None of this shit. Hey, once the years pass, people remember the best stuff. They don't remember like Peyton Manning and that last year with the Broncos when he had the noodle arm. They remember all the great stuff he did on the Colts and the Broncos. And this
4:26 Bill Simmons? is just how sports goes. This is, nobody remembers the last couple of years when Kobe was on the Lakers and they didn't win anything and the team was a complete train wreck. It doesn't matter. So when I hear about like, is this gonna hurt Belichick's legacy? Look, it's not awesome. I'm not doing backflips about it as somebody who likes Belichick and was hoping he would do well. But ultimately, it's not gonna change what happened in the, in the 2000s and the 2010s. It doesn't change what we thought about Belichick and Brady together as a tandem. You know, that's another stupid take I've seen. Well, since he's doing badly at North Carolina, that maybe we, we have to reassess Brady's involvement in the Super Bowls. No, we don't. We don't have to reassess anything. We have to reassess nothing.
5:11 Bill Simmons? The first three Super Bowls, Belichick was probably a little more responsible. The second three, Brady was probably a little more responsible, but they needed each other the whole time. Brady's talked about this over and over again, how much he learned from Belichick, how much Belichick coached him, taught him about defenses, worked through tape with him the first couple of years. They needed each other and to, to say one deserved more credit than the other is just typical of sports media talk bullshit that we do. They both won all those titles together. I don't feel like either of them was that much more important than the other. They needed each other and that was that. And even in the last three, when Brady clearly was the dominant force in football and the biggest reason they won those Super Bowls. There's no question. But what happened in the last Super Bowl they won?
5:56 Bill Simmons? Perfect defensive plan, game plan that completely cut Sean McVay's legs out. Brady, I think, I think the Pats scored 13 points in that game, something like that. Belichick won that Super Bowl. Brady won the game before against the Chiefs when they kept scoring, when it became a shootout and they had to get points. That's the thing, they needed each other. And I don't care what happened to North Carolina. I really don't. If, if he's gonna leave, he's gonna go back to media. Look, this was the whole thing with the Jordan Hudson story this spring and why I, I thought I didn't like the story. I didn't wanna listen to it, read it, because I just feel like the dude's in his mid 70s now. He's clearly past his prime. And sadly, sometimes this is how it ends for people in sports.
6:40 Bill Simmons? We've seen it over and over again, and he's the latest. And guess what? There's going to be more after him. So whether he finishes North Carolina or not, whether he finishes the season, maybe he'll miraculously turn around next year. I thought he was going to do way better than this. There's a lot that goes into college sports with the recruiting, with what you promise people. How do you build a program? Coming right into that, just trying to, you know, obviously way harder than than anyone expected, even him. But ultimately, he's going to leave. The years are going to pass and nobody's going to care about this. Nobody. Allen Iverson's doing a media tour right now. Allen Iverson won six playoff series in his entire career. Nobody cares anymore. People remember 2001.
7:24 Bill Simmons? They remember how much fun it was to watch him. He's certainly one of the best players I've ever seen in person. We don't talk about what's up with Allen Iverson's legacy. He only made the finals once. He only had one playoff run. Doesn't matter. He's one of the greats. Belichick's the greatest NFL coach ever. I don't care what happened in North Carolina. So anyway, that's my rant. Coming up on this podcast, we're going to talk to Kirk Goldsberry about the three Texas NBA teams. And then he's going to tell us one trend that we should look for for the NBA season. Then after that, Joe House and I with the ice cold Ringer 107 picks, just a comedy of errors. We're bringing in some, it's like a marriage. We're sprucing it up. We're bringing in a, we're bringing in a threesome partner. Chris Vernon is going to come on and try to change our luck. So that's on next. We're going to take a break, then Pearl Jam, and then Kirk Goldsberry.
8:09 Bill Simmons? This is the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on. FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live your way. So you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all, when you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts recently. Guess what I did? Used FanDuel. Super fun. Download the FanDuel app or go to fanduel.com/BS to get started. Must be 21 plus, present in select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky and Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-79777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut.
9:18 Bill Simmons? Kirk Goldsberry here, taping this mid-afternoon Pacific time on a Thursday. First of all, haven't seen you in a while. Good to see you. You're wearing the Grantland hoodie. I'm excited to see that. I'm excited to talk Texas teams with you. That was the first assignment we had. You were in the Texas triangle. Some are calling you the king of Texas.
9:37 Speaker 01 Yeah.
9:39 Bill Simmons? This is the first time Kirk Goldsberry that all three Texas teams have a chance to be genuinely good. Since when? What year do you think was the last year?
9:50 Speaker 01 Oh, man. Not that long ago. 2018?
9:55 Bill Simmons? Nope. 2015.
9:57 Speaker 01 Okay, 2015.
9:59 Bill Simmons? Yeah, it's been 10 years. 2015, Houston was 56-26 with that Howard Harden combo when they beat the Clippers, made the Western Finals. San Antonio was 55-27. Then Dallas, kind of their last decent year with aging Dirk, they were 15-32. But really, to get all three of these teams together as contenders has not happened. I don't think ever. We've always had two or three. I'm not saying it's going to happen this year. But I ask you, do you share my enthusiasm for the Texas triangle this year? Because to share it, you must believe Dallas is going to be way better than the over-under odds and all that stuff.
10:37 Speaker 01 Yeah, I do. I think, you know, those three franchises we have here in Texas are pretty proud franchises. I know it's been a while since all three have been good, but all three have won titles. One of the things I appreciated, Bill, when I worked at the Spurs is these are real rivalries, too. Like, the Houston-San Antonio rivalry was much bigger than I sort of expected as an outsider. But I'm also pretty high on all three teams. I think there's some commonalities, dude. I think the biggest one is they all have a very, very exciting young player at the heart of the story right now. Amen Thompson, no disrespect, is the lowest on that one. But he's very exciting, according to the GM survey that came out this week, that he's the-
11:19 Bill Simmons? I wanted to ask you about that later.
11:21 Speaker 01 He's the most likely player to have a breakout season, so they're very excited about him and rightfully so. But then you have Wemby and Cooper Flag here in Texas as well. So I think it just sets the stage, not only for this season, but for the rest of the 2020s, Bill, for these Texas teams to be pretty optimistic.
11:38 Bill Simmons? Yeah, you'd put Wemby at the top of the chart because I think he's the chance, he is the chance to have the generational superstar tag at some point. Then I think you would put Flag second. He was the best American player that I think we've had come into the week, probably since AD. And then what's interesting, you said Thompson's third. I would argue for a Thompson Shingun combo.
12:00 Speaker 01 That's right.
12:00 Bill Simmons? To be at the same thing because, you know, Shingun's only 23, the Eurobasket, everything he did there got people more excited for him. I don't know, I'm on the fence with how much more I think you can get out of this because I think he's going to always be a little bit of a defensive liability. But like, he's been a 199, 2010 guy. I don't know what the ceiling is because if you just studied the basketball reference and the jump, right, that guys make as they hit their mid 20s, it would tell you that 24 and 12 is realistic for him.
12:34 Bill Simmons? But I don't know. What do you think?
12:37 Speaker 01 I'm very high on him. I think they played great defense last year with him at the center position. I think they were top five defense when it was all said and done. I think Ime Adoka is always going to emphasize defense. That's another person that we should mention. I think Houston, he might have the best coach of these three teams and one of the best coaches in the league. What he's been able to do there over the last couple of years is completely change the culture and define a vibe that is very important in Houston. But yeah, I mean, I would say if, I'm a bit of a Shingun defensive skeptic, but the numbers last year suggest we shouldn't be. I mean, they played top five defense. Steven Adams is another character to watch there. I think wherever he goes, there's, there's great rebounds.
13:21 Speaker 01 If he has anything left, he'll give them a nice physical piece to put in that frontcourt too. And then obviously Kevin Durant showing up changes the vibe there as well.
13:32 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I wrote down this triangle that we have now in Texas where you have Wemby. You have Castle and Harper on top of Amen Thompson as these three young impact guys that I all feel like the ceiling is really high. I had somebody in my life claiming that Castle was going to be the leap guy this year, not Thompson. And just being like, why does Castle not get mentioned in any of this stuff? The guy had a really good rookie year. He was awesome at UConn. Isn't, we've seen year two jumps before. And yet he's like just being buried behind Wemby and Fox and Harper and, and people aren't kind of, kind of talking about him as a leap guy. I thought that was, we could talk about him in a second.
14:13 Bill Simmons? Shangoon, this would be the leap year for him if he has it. I think either this year, maybe next year. KD, one of the 21st century's five best guys going for one last ride, trying to find happiness yet again. He's like one of those Hollywood actresses that just keeps, it's like when Elizabeth Taylor got married eight times when I was a kid. Flag we mentioned. AD and Kyrie, we did not mention, two guys still trying to win a title without LeBron. And then Fox finally getting a spotlight. And then here's the other piece that we can talk about later, but I'd argue these are three of the four Yanis trade destinations.
14:48 Speaker 01 Oh, wow. Yeah, I think that's right. I think that's fair to say. And I think.
14:52 Bill Simmons? These three in New York, right? This is it. These are our four because in Dallas, like if Milwaukee wants to stay good, AD has to be in the deal.
15:00 Speaker 01 Yep.
15:01 Bill Simmons? San Antonio, I think is the one that makes the most sense on paper. And then Houston, we had always talked about as a Yanis spot.
15:10 Speaker 01 Yeah, they, they all have either future assets or great young talent that would be attractive for a rebuild in Milwaukee. So I think that's fair to say. They're just stacked and I think you mentioned it. I mean, I don't even know where you want to start, but there are three also huge questions. They all share a big question coming into this season at the point guard position.
15:30 Bill Simmons? Yeah, let's do it. I agree. They share the same, hmm.
15:34 Speaker 01 Yeah. At the most important position arguably in the sport, which is the point guard. Obviously Houston had a pretty bad injury to Fred VanVleet before the season. It's, you know, asking, making us ask, is Reed Shepard ready to do this? Or can Amen Thompson do this? Um, I think people aren't even talking about the loss of Jalen Green, who I don't think either you or me thought was a great offensive weapon. But he led the team in pick and roll plays last year. Fred VanVleet was second. And so now that both of those quarterbacks are gone, you have Reed Shepard, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant can run pick and roll. But that's a big question. Then San Antonio.
16:13 Bill Simmons? Wait, can we stop? Can we hold that Houston thing for a second?
16:16 Speaker 01 Yeah.
16:16 Bill Simmons? My fear with them, I'm really glad you brought up those pick and roll stats. My fear with them is that this is not going to be a fun team to watch. Even though they have all of these players that I really like because of how kind of stagnant in my head they might be offensively. Where it's like, oh, we're going to dump it down to Shangoon on this play. Here's the dump it to KD play. Here's the awkward spread the floor for Thompson play. But they don't have that connective guy. And I do think KD has it in him because we saw him do it in Brooklyn. And in Phoenix, he was just being used so weird. We went to that game in February last year. It's like, is he their rim protector? What's going on with this? So if maybe he's more of a connector, you don't think Shangoon has
17:00 Bill Simmons? any, I mean, everybody was jugs about baby Joker. But can you run an actual offense through him that people will be moving around and cutting?
17:07 Speaker 01 Yeah, could he be mini Joker, at least a more mini Jokic-ish than he has been in the past? I think he is a great passer for his position. I think that's one of the options they have to sort of fill those VanVleet touches. Um, to try to run the offense through him. But yeah, there's a, there's a clear core there of offensive weapons with, with Amen Thompson now, Kevin Durant, and then Shangoon. And I think there is going to be enough offense. I was just looking at my notes. They were 12th in offense in the league last year, but they lose. Both of their quarterbacks essentially with Jalen Green and Fred VanVliet going away. Dillon Brooks, who's a vibe if nothing else, also has to be mentioned as a big departure.
17:47 Bill Simmons? Something, right.
17:49 Speaker 01 So there's a big sort of uncertainty. I don't know what they're going to be looking like to watch. I think they'll be better than last year. If you're just looking for beautiful offense, simply because they have Kevin Durant, who is incredible talent to watch. They didn't have somebody like that last year. I'm pretty bullish on them, Bill Simmons, if the big question about the 37-year-old dude staying healthy is a yes. And I think that's the biggest question other than the Reed Shepard one. I think those are the two big questions I would put in Houston. Is KD still going to be KD and healthy? And is Reed Shepard going to be up to a promotion?
18:31 Speaker 01 And what did you say about, what did you say about Reed Shepard the other day?
18:35 Bill Simmons? A friend of mine texted me, he was like watching a Rich Kaden in the AAU tournament. It was the scouting report that made me nervous.
18:42 Speaker 01 That's brutal.
18:43 Bill Simmons? But we had our college dudes really liked him, so I kind of.
18:47 Speaker 01 Oh, yeah. The draft nerds loved him. When, when that draft happened, every nerd in the NBA who does a draft model and looks at this stuff pretty deeply was like Reed Shepard's, he's going to be very, very good at basketball. Ime Adok obviously didn't trust him. I think he had four DNPs in the Golden State series. He, he, he's forced into a position I don't think he's ready for.
19:12 Bill Simmons? Well, that's when we all suffer from next season amnesia. Where especially happens in NFL where you just forget what happened last year. They were so bad offensively in, in some of that Golden State stretches.
19:24 Speaker 01 Right.
19:24 Bill Simmons? And now they don't have VanVliet, who I was never a giant fan of, but uh, I worry about the choppiness. Alright, so that's our question for them. San Antonio, you, I interrupted you, you were about to say, let me guess, the shooting.
19:40 Bill Simmons? Around Wemby, all these guys, none of them are knockdown shooters. What is that actually going to look like with all these guards?
19:49 Speaker 01 I think shooting is one, but I'll paraphrase the sports guy himself with the biggest question there for me is De'Aaron Fox. Are we sure he's good? Cause they just, they just went all in on this guy. And I'm not sure it's going to work. I'm not saying it won't work. I'm just saying the biggest question there is De'Aaron Fox. Finally, the piece that's going to bring a healthy offense to San Antonio because Victor Wembanyama is immediately going to make that team a very good defense. Starting this year, last year, when he was on the court, Bill, they had the third best defense in the NBA. According to the defensive rating, when he was on the floor, when he was off the floor, they went to 28th.
20:31 Speaker 01 The problem is going to be on offense and anybody who's watched Wemby play knows that that's a huge growth area for him as an individual. He could really use a veteran point guard. Chris Paul was big there last year, but De'Aaron Fox could be bigger, he's younger and faster. So the big question for me, eager to hear what you say, Bill. Can De'Aaron Fox really fix that offense?
20:55 Bill Simmons? I mean, he was good on that, on that 48 win Sacramento team. And he was like a, a clutch scorer, which they would clearly need. And I do like the idea of him running pick and rolls with Wemby and then Wemby rolling to the basket. By the way, congrats to the Spurs for finally admitting he's seven foot five.
21:14 Speaker 01 Oh, that's right.
21:15 Bill Simmons? It's just little baby steps until everybody finally admits he's seven foot six, which is what he actually is. But if we, at least we're going with seven foot five now. Kareem always lied. Bill Walton always lied. This is a whole, Durant is another height liar. These height liars know who they are. Kevin Durant's at least seven one. What does he say his, like 610?
21:36 Speaker 01 It's interesting, the height liars, they bookend each other because they're short guys who say they're an inch or two taller than they are.
21:42 Bill Simmons? Iverson, Iverson's like 510. Chris Paul's like 510.
21:47 Speaker 01 Yeah.
21:47 Bill Simmons? The height liars. This would be a good, a good all star team.
21:50 Speaker 01 Yeah. So I think AOC called out Sean Miller for being a height liar this week, but I don't think we want to go there. So let's keep with the shooting. The Aaron Fox, one thing he doesn't have, which would be very convenient if he did, was three point shooting. So you brought this up. I think the other big question there is, is there enough shooting talent around Victor on the perimeter? And Julian Champagny is great, but he's a bench player. So really it comes down to Castle, who could be a good shooter. He's definitely not there yet. Devin Vassell is, who's, who's okay. Harrison Barnes is a great knockdown shooter, but in a world where you have some younger off ball players who aren't great shooters, your point guard really should be.
22:34 Speaker 01 And Darren Fox has never been a very good three point shooter. So I think it's fair to say the biggest question mark overall on the offense is Darren Fox and three point shooting. Will they be, what did they rank last year in offense? I had it here in my notes. I think they were 20, no 19th in offense. They need to be better than that to make the playoffs.
22:57 Bill Simmons? Yeah. And Wemby missed what the last two and a half months?
23:01 Speaker 01 Yeah. Again, that happened, I think when you were, you were in town in Austin, he missed, those were the first games he missed in February. And so, yeah, he didn't play February, March and April.
23:11 Bill Simmons? FanDuel has an unbelievable prop for Wemby, by the way.
23:15 Speaker 01 Tell me.
23:15 Bill Simmons? Will Wemby average 25 points, 12 plus rebounds, four plus assists and lead the league in blocks this season? Which are four things that sound realistic to me.
23:28 Speaker 01 And yeah, I hate to judge the preseason.
23:30 Bill Simmons? 25, 12, 4, plus 750. It's year three. Plus 750 are the odds for that.
23:38 Bill Simmons? I was trying to think which one would would I'd be the most worried about. And I think it's the 12 plus rebounds.
23:43 Speaker 01 Yeah, that's fair, but there's nobody else on the team that rebounds. And that's another weakness is if Harrison Barnes is your four, there's a lot of rebounds to be collected. And I
23:52 Bill Simmons? I genuinely think Cornet's gonna play real minutes for this team. Cornet's good. Like, he's not, he's not a starter, but if he's like your seventh man and he's playing 20 to 25, they just didn't have anyone like that last year. And they can play him with Wemby, which I, I think they know. That's why they overpaid for him.
24:08 Speaker 01 How do you tell Spurs fans what to expect with the Luke Cornet experience?
24:13 Bill Simmons? He's just every once in a while, he looks like he's like the 23rd best player in the league. You just have to know that you don't know when it's coming. It could be any game. You'll watch him on the right night and you'll be like, this guy should be making $30 million a year. What a, what a steal that we have him. And then there'll be another game where you didn't realize he played. I loved him though. I thought he was such a good bench guy. And the Celtics are obviously gonna really miss him, but the Spurs were smart. They used their cap space proactively. I don't, I don't know why they didn't get Yabasella. I keep mentioning that, but another fun prop for Wemby, by the way, is will he average more blocks than assists next season?
24:53 Speaker 01 Well, that's
24:54 Bill Simmons? So blocks would be like five?
24:57 Speaker 01 I would say four or five blocks. And if you're watching these Spurs preseason games against one Chinese team in the Miami Heat last night, you're going to notice that Victor is making a lot more passes and they're, they're, you know, part of that is every point guard on the roster is missing the preseason, or at least the first part of the preseason. So they're running offense through him. But, you know, when he gets too sent out, and he makes the right play, he is a sort of typical European big man in that sense. So I think he can get to five or six assists. But we might be seeing a little bit of a red herring in the, in the preseason. I have these two stats from the GM survey about Wemby that I think should get Spurs fans excited. If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any NBA player in the NBA, who would it be?
25:43 Speaker 01 Victor Wembanyama received 83% of the votes from the GMs.
25:47 Bill Simmons? By the way, who are the 17% that had another pick?
25:51 Speaker 01 Well, Jokic got at least one.
25:53 Bill Simmons? Jokic is 30.
25:54 Speaker 01 And then SGA got three or four. So again, that is a huge sign. Maybe not this year. Maybe we're two years away from being two years away, but that's a great sign. The people around the league who build basketball teams are pointing at the guy in San Antonio, being like, that's the best guy to start a team with.
26:13 Bill Simmons? Wemby to record a quadruple double this season, which I'm not sure has ever happened. 18 to one.
26:22 Speaker 01 I think he could do that.
26:24 Bill Simmons? Wemby to do a five by five in any game this year, which means at least five points in the five categories. That's plus 340. I feel like he's going to do that in like November. I would bet all these Wemby things. The question for me is how many games is he going to play? That's forget the stats. Like, can we just keep him on the floor? Can we keep him on the floor for 70 games? That's what they're over under, which we're going to cover in more detail next week in this pod, but 44 and a half, which I thought was right. That's like right around the right number. We forgot they have Olynyk too now.
26:55 Speaker 01 I know. It's a bunch of former Celtics stretchy bigs in the Spurs ecosystem now.
27:00 Bill Simmons? All right. So what was your big Dallas question, other than the obvious of when the hell is Kyrie coming back?
27:05 Speaker 01 Well, I can't wait to talk to you about Cooper Flag.
27:07 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
27:08 Speaker 01 The one question that has been the number one question for any Anthony Davis team over the last 15 years since you and I've known each other is what? Can this guy stay right? I mean, if he's right and he's healthy, they're going to be good. And I think that's sort of a boring one. So let's lean in to the second one, which is, is Cooper Flag going to be great right away?
27:32 Bill Simmons? Let's, let's fucking go. I'm so ready for this. I'm so ready.
27:37 Speaker 01 Yeah.
27:38 Bill Simmons? Let's take a break and then come back and really hit this. This episode is brought to by Uber Eats. Every football season, the same thing happens. The game somehow makes everybody really hungry. Quarterback scrambles clearly a sign for breakfast burritos. Yeah. Turnover suddenly deserted at 2:00 PM doesn't sound so crazy. Wing formations. Well, those can only mean buffalo wings, as if they're ever not in play. Even the goalposts start looking suspiciously like french fries. It's almost like football is sending a message.
28:08 Speaker 01 To eat more food.
28:11 Bill Simmons? Yeah. The good news, Uber Eats makes those cravings easy to satisfy with game day deals all season long. From wings and pizza to chips, drinks, and even last minute grocery runs. Don't sleep on those. You'll find savings on all your favorites delivered straight to your door. Order now on Uber Eats. All right. So Kurt Goldsberry asked me before the break, is Cooper Flag ready to be great right away? And I'm not, I'm doing all my basketball stuff next week. I don't want to step on any take, any opinion, any over under prediction, anything. But I'm going to do it just for this because I can't believe their over under is 41 and a half. And I think, so last year they were 39 and 43, but they had the Luca trade halfway, you know,
28:55 Bill Simmons? in January, whenever it was. And Davis played a game and got hurt, completely messed up year. And they bring in D Lowe, at least for first half of the season. Kyrie hopefully comes in.
29:09 Bill Simmons? I don't see any scenario, 41 and a half means basically 42 and 40 means they're going to have a winning season. I don't see any scenario where Dallas is 500 or under this season. They're going to be too fucking good defensively. And the reason is because Cooper Flag, who's an over competitive psycho, who you would have, you would have known that if you watched at Duke or followed him in high school, anything, he's a maniac. And they're going to have him with Davis, with Lively, with Gafford, with PJ Washington. This team's going to be such a bitch to try to score against, get offense against. I just, they're going to win 43 games just on defense. So I'm in, I'm, I'm, I'm in on a bunch of Dallas stuff, but that one was the, the, the one that jumped out. And to
29:52 Bill Simmons? answer your question again, I think he's going to be good right away. I think he's going to be like genuinely noticeably impactful. And it's going to be every game because of the way he's wired.
30:02 Speaker 01 Yeah, and I did that big feature with him for the Ringer right before the draft, which I got to meet him and spend time with his people up in Maine and it was thrilling for me. But I also, you know, fell in love with the subject and I love this guy and I'm a believer now too. The first preseason look only sort of solidified my, my stance that he is going to be impactful right away. When we were asked to do the Ringer 100 rankings, I had a really tough time figuring out where to put him. I ended up putting him at 31, Bill, because I think he's going to be really good right away. And again, you can roast me all you want, but this dude is going to be a two-way force.
30:44 Bill Simmons? I had him 34.
30:46 Speaker 01 Oh, see? What a great.
30:48 Bill Simmons? And by the way, I initially had him, I sent it to House and one other friend I have for, for list and I had him in the twenties and both of them had an intervention. They're like, he's never played a game. You can't put him in the twenties. You can't put him against real guys. I'm like, I don't know, man. This is going to be one of the most additive guys that has come into the league this century. Everything he does helps the team win.
31:12 Speaker 01 I'll tell you the stat that, that, that Joe House needs to hear, which is Cooper Flag was the youngest or second youngest player in all of college basketball last year and he won the Naismith Trophy. He was 17. His twin brother is just starting at the University of Maine this fall. He's a baby and he was the best player in college hoops.
31:35 Bill Simmons? It's actually not a big enough story. I don't, I don't think like this is like a fucking prodigy coming in here.
31:40 Speaker 01 He's turning 19 in December. Like he is.
31:43 Bill Simmons? My only fear with him is I just want them to use him correctly and not try to do this thing where they're trying to teach him how to be a point forward. And some of the stuff we saw Durant's first year in Seattle, they're like, you're a two-guard. And all of a sudden they were using him as a two-guard. That was stupid. Uh, Yanis had that stretch, which I think ultimately long-term helped him, but short-term was really ugly to watch when Jason Kidd was trying to make him a point guard. And with Flag, I just like, ease him into it. This is not who the offense should be running around. All these young guards are going to be diving at his legs and trying to steal the ball from him. Just, you know, it took Tatum until year six to be a point forward. You know, or you're five.
32:25 Speaker 01 He'll, he'll, he'll make the right plays. And that's what I think he, his, his summer league debut sort of captured that too. Like he, he's not making his shots, but he's still the best player on the court because he's making every other play. He doesn't care. I mean, it's a cliche. He doesn't care about his own points.
32:40 Bill Simmons? No.
32:41 Speaker 01 He cares about winning, as you alluded to earlier. He's the most competitive prospect.
32:45 Bill Simmons? He's the most additive prospect. I can't think of another one in the last 15 years. Davis is probably the closest, like what Davis was in Kentucky.
32:54 Speaker 01 Yeah.
32:54 Bill Simmons? Just like, oh yeah, you can put that anywhere and figure out how to make it work. The thing about flag, I really do think he can play the three with them. I do think they could play Davis with a center and then have him at the three. And his ability, he's going to be like what Tatum was like last year for the Celtics.
33:12 Bill Simmons? Were just able to guard every position on the court. He's going to be able to guard guards. He's going to be able to guard small forwards. And there's going to be teams that come in to play Dallas that are just going to be like, what the hell?
33:24 Speaker 01 Mm hmm.
33:25 Bill Simmons? What? We can't get in, we can't get a shot within 15 feet of the basket. And every time we think we have something, somebody switches on to a guy. That's why I feel like the, the D low Kyrie thing, I don't even really care.
33:38 Speaker 01 Yeah.
33:38 Bill Simmons? Because ultimately they're going to have so much size and length and switchability and just all things that we know works in the NBA.
33:46 Speaker 01 Yeah, I'm, I'm with you on the over unders. It's fascinating to me that there's, their number is lower than the San Antonio number. Cause I, I just compare those teams. I, that, that seems backwards to me. Because I think that the Mavericks do have a signature thing, which is one of the best front courts, if not the best front court in the NBA. Cause I love lively, Gafford is great. Then you have AD, Cooper flag, PJ Washington. I, I think this is just a deeper, more physical, athletic team. Then, then people realize, and I think they have a chip on their shoulder too. They weren't happy with how last year went down. They're looking at this year as a chance to, to reframe the conversation.
34:27 Bill Simmons? I didn't realize you were going to agree with me on this. I thought we were going to argue about it. I'm, I'm like a 10 out of 10 bullish on them this season. Like I, I looked at the odds, they're 27 to one to win the West. And I'm not saying they're going to win the West. But Golden State is 16 to one. And the Lakers are 10 to one, and the Clippers are 10 to one, and Houston with no Van Vliet is 10 to one, and. I just think if Kyrie is back and able to give them something combined with what they're getting from flag, which is basically, we both think he's going to be one of the best 35 guys in the league, you're just putting that in there and somebody that's going to Swiss Army knife everything they're doing. OKC and Denver, I have up there and I have Minnesota, Houston,
35:08 Bill Simmons? 3A, 3B. And then after that, I don't see any reason why they couldn't be as good or better than any of those other teams.
35:14 Speaker 01 Yeah, I went through the West myself. OKC and Denver, we agree are on a separate plane. OKC probably above Denver. And then there's a clump. And there was a clump last year and Houston was at the top of the clump, but just barely. And I think that's still the case. It's Minnesota, the Clippers, the Warriors, the Lakers, you have to put them there, the Rockets. But I like the Mavs. Again, they have a robust set of players. Depth is one of the most important things in the current NBA and they're deep. And D-Lo, by the way, who's never been my favorite player, but is in another contract year situation. I think he has an option next season. He's going to want to prove maybe to the Mavericks or maybe to the rest of the league that he's
35:58 Speaker 01 worth a bigger deal than the one year, six and a half million deal or whatever they're paying him on with that option. So I think.
36:07 Bill Simmons? Look, you know who D-Lo is? He's your buddy that comes to visit and it's really great when he's only there for one day. And by day six, you're like, ah, I'm ready for him to leave. That's D-Lo. D-Lo will be great for the one day, which in this case will be two months of his first season with the Mavericks and they're gonna, they'll go through all the stages of D-Lo, right? They're gonna be like, wow, what a steal. My God, D-Lo at 35 tonight. He's amazing. They're not going to have to worry about the playoff version of him because Kyrie will be back by then. But.
36:36 Speaker 01 And he's got Jason Kidd too. And I think Jason Kidd deserves a mention too, right? Bill is like, okay, can he get through to D-Lo? And maybe, maybe not, but he's played with AD before.
36:48 Bill Simmons? I don't know if anyone's getting through D-Lo.
36:49 Speaker 01 That's fair. And I do think, but there's a chance Kyrie comes back in February or March and they have one of the deepest teams in the West if, if the health gods bless them this year.
37:03 Bill Simmons? So they are over the first apron, under the second apron.
37:09 Speaker 01 We didn't even mention Klay Thompson, dude.
37:12 Bill Simmons? Sure. I didn't have him. No, he's a nice rotation guy, but when I think about like their defensive apex with the five guys, I don't have him out there. But yeah, I think Dallas is gonna be really good. I'm really excited about it. I can't wait for flag. I think they're gonna be a potential must watch. And I had one more thing on this. So if you had to, would you rank Dallas ahead of San Antonio right now?
37:40 Speaker 01 100% and that's not shade against my friends in San Antonio. I'm worried about the De'Aaron Fox thing. The hamstring, you can tell me he's gonna miss a week or two, but you know, like a younger Chris Paul, once the hamstring starts going, that's his, that's his thing. He needs speed. He needs those muscles to be going at full speed to play the De'Aaron Fox game. So yeah, I think there's less question marks in the Dallas rotation than there are in the San Antonio rotation.
38:10 Bill Simmons? You know, it's funny saying it like San Antonio at 44 and a half. I could totally see them being really good this year because just Wemby just becomes awesome. Right? Like of all the MVP guys, because MVP is gonna come down to the same four guys it always comes down to. But Wemby is like the wild card at 12 to one. Where it's like, yeah, we might be one weekend of the season that might be three to one because he just had 49 points and 12 blocks against somebody.
38:38 Bill Simmons? I think from, from a fun standpoint, I'd probably have Houston third.
38:46 Bill Simmons? But what about if I asked you, you could be any of these three teams for the rest of the decade?
38:53 Bill Simmons? You'd pick San Antonio, correct?
38:55 Speaker 01 I would pick San Antonio and it's not for the current year or even maybe the next year. But the same reason those GMs are saying that it's because I got the alien at the center of my roster under cost control. I think he's making 13% of the cap. And another group to watch are my old friends in the San Antonio front office. They have a really high stakes moment here, Bill, to surround Victor Wembanyama with a talented enough group.
39:21 Speaker 01 To do what he's capable of doing and not end up in like a LeBron in the first Cleveland administration era.
39:29 Bill Simmons? Well, you know where they got kind of hosed? They played that Dejounte Murray trade perfectly.
39:35 Bill Simmons? They had those Hawks picks. And yet the Hawks are now going to be good. So you have like, oh yeah, someday we'll have the Hawks picks. And it's like, ah, that's not going to really help you because the Hawks are probably going to be a four seed.
39:46 Speaker 01 Well, let me give some love to, to, to, there's a poetic thing behind what you just said is my guy, Ansi Sala, the new GM of the Hawks is a protege of R.C. Buford and he learned. And just like Sam Presti, you learn in San Antonio and then you start becoming a problem for San Antonio. But yeah, you're exactly right with those Hawks picks.
40:06 Bill Simmons? So the GM survey you mentioned, John Schuman, shout out to him, always enjoy his, all his stuff during the year on NBA.com, especially the Monday Power Poll, I think is a much must read. So they asked, the last question in the GM survey was, what rule, parentheses, regarding play schedule, draft lottery, playoff format, roster construction, et cetera, most needs to change? And they said, number one at 26% was roster construction.
40:38 Bill Simmons? And some of the things mentioned were apron rules too harsh, add a cap discount for own drafted players, mentioned that multiple times on this podcast.
40:47 Bill Simmons? Allow trading partial salaries and make all minimum contracts the same. We all agree that the apron rules are so stupid that I actually think Adam Silver needs to pop some chest hair and maybe reopen this and be like, we kind of fucked this up. Can we, is there a way to fix this before next season? Cause this is too prohibitive. This is stupid. He won't, but he should. Allow trading partial salaries. Almost broke my brain.
41:16 Speaker 01 Yeah.
41:17 Bill Simmons? So I guess that means I can trade somebody, but only 15 million of him, like, like somebody's making 30 million. I trade 15 million, I'll still carry my cap and you have to carry the 15 million on yours. Baseball has trades like this, basketball doesn't. I thought it was a pretty good idea. I was kind of mad I never thought of it. Right?
41:40 Speaker 01 Yeah, it's just a general reaction to front offices are having a hard time right now and we can't build out teams the way we want to with this, this rule because I've written earlier this summer.
41:53 Speaker 01 This is a hard cap. The second apron is a hard cap. What do we have one team over it?
41:57 Bill Simmons? It's always been a hard cap. Right.
41:59 Speaker 01 And it hasn't been good for players. And it's really harsh on general managers who are trying to build teams, but the trading partial salaries, they would have to amend the CBA on my understanding. And it's just like, that's, that's not going to happen.
42:14 Bill Simmons? No, nothing that would actually be logical can happen. The second thing was draft schedule. They said back to one day or only lottery on day one, or do it after free agency. That got 19% and then game flow, which would have been the other one I did, continuous faster review, hockey style subs, no live ball timeouts. I was talking to Zach this week and the game flow thing is the number one thing because we were both, we were talking about how much we, we've enjoyed baseball the last couple of years since the changes and especially playoff baseball has been great. And with the NBA, if they figure out how to change the last three minutes to a way that's actually fun to watch, I think it would have the same impact that it had with baseball where people look at each
42:57 Bill Simmons? other and go, wow, this is way better. I'm glad they did this. The NBA hasn't tried to do anything like that for us in a long time. And, um, you know, I just, I don't know why they won't fix it.
43:09 Speaker 01 Yeah, I think there was a Celtics Cavs game last year around December or January or something where the last few minutes took 27 minutes or something. And that was the game that put me over the edge. And then another thing is like you spend the summer watching Eurobasket or whatever, and you see an alternative where the last two minutes take four minutes of real time and you're just left being like, this is, what are we doing? Um, I do think that's really unfortunate, something that they should, if I voted on this, that would be one I would have voted for because it's something that I think the commissioner could change. Um, and make the, the product in a Theo Epstein sense, a lot more, um, attractive to us consumers.
43:55 Bill Simmons? I'd also make halftime three more minutes.
43:58 Speaker 01 Longer.
43:59 Bill Simmons? And I'd get rid of a timeout in the second half. In that GM survey, what team has the most promising young core? OK, see, got 50%, San Antonio got 27%. The next two teams were tied at 10%. Houston, I would have guessed. Detroit surprised me.
44:16 Speaker 01 Yeah.
44:17 Bill Simmons? Nah, it's only 10%, but I would not have had them on the list. And I don't know, 10% seemed tight. Did that surprise you or no?
44:27 Speaker 01 People like the Thompson Twins are, everybody's high on the Thompson Twins right now.
44:32 Bill Simmons? Everyone's high on Osar, yeah.
44:33 Speaker 01 Yeah, and then I think Jalen Durin, who just, if you go see the NBA in person, this guy leaps off the floor.
44:42 Bill Simmons? Old school.
44:43 Speaker 01 Old school, big guy. And then obviously Cade and Ivy. So I could see it. They're very good. They have a very good young core. I think Trajan Langdon has completely, in the same way Ime reinvented the Rockets really quickly. Trajan deserves some credit for getting this Detroit situation right real fast.
45:05 Bill Simmons? I have some questions.
45:08 Bill Simmons? Which team's level of success this season is toughest to predict? So Philly was number one with 47%. So they almost had half of the votes. And then there's like seven teams tied at 7% for second.
45:24 Bill Simmons? I was shocked that Philly won because I actually don't think Philly's season is that tough to predict. Because we all know how it's gonna go. What's tough to predict? Yeah, if a million things go right, that might be good. To me, it's Indiana. I would have said Indiana for, that would have been my answer for this. I don't know what to expect from them. I know they lost Halliburton, but I'm also not gonna pour dirt on them yet.
45:47 Speaker 01 I could make the case for Philly, Bill.
45:49 Bill Simmons? Okay.
45:50 Speaker 01 I know you love to roast Joel Embiid and Paul George and our old friend Daryl for these contracts. But there is a world where Joel plays 60 games or 55 games and Paul George plays 70.
46:04 Bill Simmons? Is this an AI world?
46:07 Speaker 01 And VJ Edgcombe, by the way, some very exciting early highlights from, from, from VJ.
46:12 Bill Simmons? He's a guard.
46:13 Speaker 01 Tyrese Maxey.
46:15 Bill Simmons? He's a guard.
46:15 Speaker 01 I do think they're very hard to predict because ultimately I side with you. I would not wager a lot of confidence with Joel Embiid's availability. And without him, their MVP, it is pretty easy to predict where they're going to land. But it's, it's, it's clearly, the league is hedging on Joel Embiid playing somewhere around 56 games.
46:38 Bill Simmons? What makes anyone think that that's going to happen?
46:42 Bill Simmons? I don't mean a dick, but like, it's gotten to the point if he plays 60 games, I, I think that would be genuinely shocking.
46:50 Speaker 01 What are the odds? What is his over, under in your head? If you're setting it for how many games Joel Embiid would play?
46:58 Speaker 01 You hear that FanDuel? We need an over, under for Joel Embiid games played.
47:02 Bill Simmons? And then here's the other one. Paul George, who's 2020s look like this. 48 games, 54, 31, 56, 74, 41. The basketball reference, when you have that hard drop, when you're later in your career, you know, mid 30s, 15 season, 16 season, and you have the hard stat drop, it ain't coming back. Does that, just point me to the guy who's like, oh, remember that amazing comeback season that guy had at age 37?
47:33 Speaker 01 Can I go back to Bernard King?
47:35 Bill Simmons? Yeah, Bernard King didn't play. That's, he came back and he, he still had the stats, but it wasn't like, he didn't, because I remember in the 2000s, I was writing about this for like three straight years with Jermaine O'Neal, where there was this three year stretch where people were still treating Jermaine O'Neal like he was a 24 and 10 guy, and that guy was gone. They're like, oh, they got Jermaine O'Neal, you know, important center. It's like, he's not Jermaine O'Neal anymore. I don't personally think Paul George is Paul George anymore.
48:00 Speaker 01 And that's to give you credit. I've been reading you for 20 years now, whatever, 25 years, but you've been talking about age curves before they were common. And one of my favorite sites on the internet, shout out to Darko, the NBA stats app. They have these aging curves that are really, really strong for publicly available. And if you look at Joel and Paul George's career trajectory, you'll see exactly what you just outlined.
48:27 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
48:28 Speaker 01 Very troubling declines in their 30s. Not unusual, by the way. NBA players rarely make it to 36, 37 in one piece and playing is better. There's no, and LeBron has deformed our expectations in this regard, but.
48:43 Bill Simmons? He doesn't count. Yeah, he's over.
48:44 Speaker 01 He doesn't count. And Kevin even, I mean, playing this well at age 37. So some of these guys are distracting us from a more common rank and file reality of aging. And Paul George is definitely on that typical downturn.
48:59 Bill Simmons? Yeah, like a good example is Karl Malone, who was always in the 27 and 10 kind of range. And then by that last Utah year, he was down to a 20 and eight guy. And then the Lakers signed him and then he dropped down to 13 and eight after that. But usually when, when you're at a certain point in your estate, we even saw Chris Paul. Chris Paul was always like a 20 and 10, 19 and 11 type guy. And then it dipped down to that 15 and whatever. Anyway. Like I don't think Paul George is going to be a 20, 20 and six with 40%. I could talk about Philly all day.
49:38 Bill Simmons? On that, there was one more thing on that GM poll
49:42 Bill Simmons? that I was excited about, but now, now I just couldn't find it. Which team has the best home court advantage?
49:50 Bill Simmons? Denver was 43%, OKC was 43% and nobody else. The Knicks were 7% third. And I, that was the one where I was like, they've nailed it with this. Denver's got the altitude. OKC is the loudest fucking fans you've ever heard. And those are clearly the two best now.
50:05 Speaker 01 South Beach is undefeated, as they say, but I agree. I mean, the hardest place I had to go with the Spurs was OKC. That was, that's insane. Like in terms of the crowd impact. It is definitely OKC elevation. And then the cultural impacts in Miami, I think, are hard to beat. But I do think that that's they nailed that one.
50:30 Bill Simmons? Yeah. So I asked you to give me a trend that you're excited about heading into the 2526 season. We have now reached the point in the podcast where you're going to unveil the trend.
50:40 Speaker 01 Excited about, I don't know, but one of the craziest stats that's come out last year was that for the first time in NBA history, more rebounds are coming from missed three-point shots than missed two-point shots. In other words, the quintessential rebound now, if you're teaching a young player to get rebounds, you're teaching them how to rebound three-point shots, which is crazy.
51:02 Bill Simmons? So you're teaching them like a corner three, move to the other side of the basket.
51:07 Speaker 01 Yeah.
51:07 Bill Simmons? It's gonna bounce, it's gonna bounce toward the baseline, be near the baseline, you can grab it.
51:12 Speaker 01 Yeah, so I think the art of rebounding, we've gone from a Moses Malone reality. If you picture Moses, probably the greatest rebounder of my youth, growing up, watching those Sixers teams at the at the end of his career. But he wasn't getting a lot of missed threes in his diet. It was all six footers that bounced off and he was pushing around another giant person. But there's a paradigm shift, Bill, that rebounding itself is now about getting longer rebounds. And, you know, people like Giannis are perfectly built for this task. Like, you're more athletic, you're rangier, you have these these arms. Victor Wembanyama is going to be great at this.
51:53 Bill Simmons? So speed and length.
51:55 Speaker 01 Speed and length, and it's not as much as about strength as it used to be. I think strength is very important, but I would say, speed and length have entered the chat in terms of being a complete rebounder, where missed corner threes, missed 30 footers, that's a different art form than what we grew up with, grabbing missed eight footers. And the data back it up, again, for the first time in NBA history, more rebounds are coming off threes than twos.
52:26 Bill Simmons? Jesus.
52:28 Speaker 01 And it's gonna, it's gonna continue to increase. So, yeah, it's just interesting. If you're teaching young players to get rebounds in college basketball, you're teaching them to rebound missed threes, which is crazy.
52:40 Bill Simmons? This was my dramatic Lazarus like return in the early 2010s to pick up basketball with Dave Jacoby, playing at USC for a couple of years.
52:49 Speaker 01 Yeah, I remember.
52:50 Bill Simmons? It was twos and ones.
52:52 Speaker 01 Yes.
52:54 Bill Simmons? But then, that's what I thought it was gonna be. But at USC, it was just ones. But then, people would just shoot threes anyway. And I was always fascinated. This is right as the three-point influence was starting, and people were just jacking up threes. And it was just the experience of rebounding threes and trying to figure out where they're going. And it would always be like the same four or five spots. And I wonder, like, I wonder if this is like a math efficiency that these coaches are secretly trying, like there's like a heat chart map with like clusters of like, they shoot here. Because it was always like top of the key, could go anywhere.
53:28 Speaker 01 Yeah.
53:28 Bill Simmons? But if somebody was top of the key to the right, it was either bouncing back to them, or it was bouncing off the back of the rim and going like almost toward the baseline. So you kind of knew where to go.
53:38 Speaker 01 Yeah, we did that. I remember I did two pieces at Grantland that are relevant to this. One was where rebounds go. So we mapped out, you know, 100,000 rebounds and based on where the shot was, and statistically, a lot more rebounds on corner threes go to the weak side.
53:50 Bill Simmons? Right.
53:51 Speaker 01 Top of the key, as you alluded to, a little harder to predict. Generally, the physics is going to take it to the other side. But one of them are secretly viral pieces. I think Jacoby helped with this a little bit at Grantland. It was, I wrote about the tyranny of ones and twos in pickup basketball, because it was, it was taking, it was, it was, it was a perverse incentive for terrible shooters to shoot more and more threes.
54:12 Bill Simmons? It was the worst thing that ever happened.
54:13 Speaker 01 And people either loved this piece or hated it. But it got, I don't know how we counted it back in those days.
54:19 Bill Simmons? I remember that piece.
54:20 Speaker 01 Shares or whatever. But it was like, people, and I was like, we should be playing twos and threes in pickups, Bill. And.
54:27 Bill Simmons? Yeah, no kidding. And instead of playing 11, play to 21. And we've saw, or play to 18, or whatever we want to get to.
54:35 Speaker 01 Yeah, because we're making, we're incentivizing terrible shooters to shoot more and more threes. The other trend I had, which was darker, was just, and I wanted to get your take on this.
54:44 Bill Simmons? The return of cocaine? How dark are we getting?
54:48 Speaker 01 What's dark about that? But.
54:52 Speaker 01 No, I was just saying with the LeBron news.
54:56 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
54:58 Speaker 01 The, the trend and I want to shout out Tom Haberstroh for finding this last year and I think it's going to continue this year. It's just the sheer amount of missed games from the league's best players. And I know that's a darker trend, but I was gonna, what are your thoughts on this? Do you think we're going to continue to see more and more guys? De'Aaron Fox missing the opening of the season, obviously Fred VanVleet. Are we going to see more and more of these injuries taken away from the greatness of the regular season?
55:25 Bill Simmons? I just think I've said this a million times. I think basketball is too hard to play now. It doesn't, the way, how hard it is to play compared to what the schedule is, is not compatible. And eventually we'll realize this, but we just haven't gotten to that point yet. I think college football is hitting this point right now where the, with the amount of games they have on the schedule. I don't think it's sustainable for people in 18, 19, 20, 21, they're going to be playing 14, 15 playoff game or 15 games. Like that's insane, but I think with the basketball, I just think it's too much running. I don't think it's a coincidence that we've had these injuries to younger guys like Tatum and Halliburton that we've never had before. And I think it's too much stress on, on people's legs.
56:07 Speaker 01 Yeah, I think the, the interactions, people don't talk about that. You've still talked about it for a while now, but the interaction between the style that we're playing, pace and space, the 82 games that we're playing.
56:20 Bill Simmons? And the workouts are the other piece because that's not part of the games, but the workouts these guys do to quote unquote, get in awesome shape.
56:29 Speaker 01 Yeah.
56:29 Bill Simmons? I don't know, nobody worked that harder than Tatum and his Achilles fucking, you know, snapped.
56:35 Speaker 01 Yeah, it's, it's an interesting thing and I know we talked a lot about the schedule last year, but maybe we'll look more into this. But I, I, I do think that's something the league needs to really look at seriously is, is the availability of these top players.
56:48 Bill Simmons? They don't care. They, they could have addressed it and they just don't give a shit. Can I give you my trend?
56:54 Speaker 01 Yeah, dude.
56:55 Bill Simmons? This is good. I haven't unveiled this yet.
56:57 Speaker 01 Oh, I love it.
56:59 Bill Simmons? I feel like this steps a little on the preview pods next week, but I just feel like somebody's gonna say this before we do the pod and I just have to get it out there. I think the Celtics are gonna be absolutely deranged this year on offense. Like, I think they might, they averaged 48 threes a game last year.
57:18 Speaker 01 Mm hmm.
57:20 Bill Simmons? I think they're gonna average like 55 threes a game. I think they're gonna have games where they shoot 70. I think the pace that they're gonna play with is gonna be genuinely shocking to people. And it's almost like when, whatever that Paul Westhead Denver Nuggets team, when they were just like, we're gonna run and gun, but they had no, no system or style to anything they were doing. I think the Celtics actually have a system and I think they're gonna play faster because they don't have Tatum. And this is the one caveat with Tatum that he did, you know, he was particular. He did slow the ball off sometimes. He did take his time. Nobody's gonna be taking their time anymore. This team is gonna be like, it's gonna be like the run and shoot offense in the NFL. They're just gonna be spreading the floor with five receivers and fucking throwing it
58:04 Bill Simmons? and keeping the other defense on the field. And I don't think people understand how crazy it's gonna be. I think it's gonna be insane.
58:11 Speaker 01 Do you know how many threes they shot in their preseason game this week against the Grizzlies?
58:20 Bill Simmons? Probably, it was, I think it was over 50, right? Like 55?
58:23 Speaker 01 53.
58:24 Bill Simmons? Yeah, and that was with the scrubs.
58:27 Speaker 01 So who's taken more shots for your team this year than they did last year?
58:31 Bill Simmons? So here's one, here's one for you, Kirk Goldsberry. Here's a little future I'll give to my, to my, my longtime listeners on FanDuel. Pritchard is 25 to one to hit the most threes this year. 25 to one. White's 18 to one. Pritchard finished fifth last year and he's gonna play more and he's gonna have the ball more. And I think he could lead the league in threes. But I think if Simons, if they keep him, Derek White, Jalen is gonna be like, I mean, go all the overs for him if you, if you like betting overs. Is Jalen on the 30 points a game list?
59:10 Speaker 01 No, he shouldn't.
59:10 Bill Simmons? Yeah, he is. Seven to one, averaged 30 points a game. It's four more points a game than he averaged last year. He's gonna have way more shots with a faster pace. But I just think they're gonna be jacking threes. And I think they're not tanking. Missoula's a maniac and they're gonna be like, we're gonna try to system this. And Tatum's not gonna be denied. He's coming back. I mean, it, it, it quote unquote was breaking news today. Anyone who follows the team or knows anything about it, like this has been brewing for two months. He's coming back. They're not gonna be able to stop it.
59:40 Speaker 01 No, that's, and I was just gonna say, Pritchard, Sam Hauser's gonna play more, shoot more.
59:44 Bill Simmons? Hauser's gonna shoot a shitload of them.
59:46 Speaker 01 Yeah.
59:46 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
59:47 Speaker 01 I could see this, so.
59:49 Bill Simmons? Shireman, wait till you see, and also all the centers they have, like Luca Garza, like they're all gonna be firing up threes. All of them.
59:58 Speaker 01 And I would guess Joe Missoula's philosophy is this. We, without Jason Tatum, we have to do everything we can to optimize our offensive efficiency, guys. We have to do everything we can.
1:00:09 Bill Simmons? We can win with math. We can win with threes and pace.
1:00:12 Speaker 01 What's his math quote? That's exactly right. And so you can lean into that. And if you look at his trajectory and three point rate, which has already broken the record to, to, last year's team broke the record for three point rate in NBA history. I think that's a good take. And I think it'll be Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Derrick White might shoot 10 a night. And I know that sounds crazy. But he might shoot 10 a night. Cause Tatum, I think, was shooting 10 or 12 a game, wasn't he? Nine a game? But yeah, those shots are gone, so somebody else is gonna do it. And some of the guys getting, getting those minutes and those shots are three point assassins. Taylor Shireman.
1:00:52 Bill Simmons? Well, there was one game, I can't find it. There was one game last year where Tatum didn't play and they played fast. Cause one of the things with me and why, why I can't count out Indiana and Boston this year is, um, coaches who are really competitive, who have systems. And are used to playing without their stars. The Celtics played multiple games without Tatum last year intentionally and they would play differently when they didn't have them and Indiana would do the same. And I just think, I just think they're gonna try to, uh, try to win more than people think. Like, I think their over under is maybe 42 and a half, something like that.
1:01:29 Speaker 01 It's one of my favorite things, right? It's like when you have a great coach or a great team and somebody rests, like when Tim Duncan rested, teams would be like, oh, this is gonna be easy. No, it's not. They're still gonna beat you. Um, and I do think Rick Carlisle and Joe Missoula deserve that level of respect and these teams, nobody thought Indiana was any good last year.
1:01:47 Bill Simmons? Right.
1:01:48 Speaker 01 So I think that-
1:01:49 Bill Simmons? The one guy that's not gonna like it is my dad, cuz he, he already thought they shot too many threes anyway. I don't think he has any idea what's gonna happen this year.
1:01:57 Bill Simmons? Jaylen Brown just jacking up threes with 19 seconds left in the shot clock, cuz that's what's gonna happen.
1:02:02 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:02:02 Bill Simmons? This is who they're gonna be for 50 games.
1:02:05 Speaker 01 They'll break the record. I would go, my bold prediction is they'll break the record for most threes in a game this year. That, that would be mine.
1:02:12 Bill Simmons? What is that record?
1:02:13 Speaker 01 I'm gonna guess it's 75. I don't know, I'm looking it up.
1:02:17 Bill Simmons? Well, they set the record last year for, um, for threes attempted. It was almost, I'm gonna say it was almost 4,000, something like that.
1:02:29 Speaker 01 Yeah. They tied the record with 29 made and attempted at 63.
1:02:35 Bill Simmons? 63?
1:02:36 Speaker 01 Yeah.
1:02:36 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:02:37 Speaker 01 That's a big number in Boston, for the Celtics history.
1:02:41 Bill Simmons? They will so easily break that. Like, mark that down.
1:02:44 Speaker 01 Yeah, I think that's right.
1:02:46 Bill Simmons? Definitely shoot more than 63 threes in one of the games this year.
1:02:49 Speaker 01 Yeah, that's right.
1:02:49 Bill Simmons? And I think Pritchard could have a game where he shoots like 23s.
1:02:54 Speaker 01 Where does he land this year? Do you think he's gonna, do you think he's gonna score 20 points a game?
1:03:00 Bill Simmons? Well, the points have to go, come from somewhere, right?
1:03:02 Speaker 01 I agree.
1:03:02 Bill Simmons? Tatum's, Tatum's leaving 28 points for everybody else. And they're gonna have to divvy up some of them and they don't, like, Simons will step in on some of them, assuming he's on the team for a while. So maybe that's 16, 17 of them. Pritchard's an extra four to five. Jalen's an extra three to four. Wait, I just don't, I don't know if it's in him to just gun and shoot. You know, maybe it'll be a little more, but then, uh, you know, then it comes down to like a, like a Hauser situation.
1:03:33 Speaker 01 I think.
1:03:34 Bill Simmons? If Hauser's gonna play 30 minutes a game, like, uh, I don't know, they're gonna be, they're gonna be weird to play if you're just like, you're doing an NBA schedule and it's like, we're going here, we're in Toronto, then we play the Knicks and we have Philly and then it's like, oh, we're playing that weird Boston team. Get ready, get, put your sneakers on.
1:03:53 Speaker 01 Yeah, that's what it's gonna be. I think that's right. And I think Peyton is gonna be good. But I told Zach on his podcast, I, I think Derrick White does have it in him to be a 30 point.
1:04:03 Bill Simmons? Interesting.
1:04:04 Speaker 01 Every other, yeah. I mean, he's a very, very smart player and he'll know what they need to win games. And you're exactly right. With Tatum out, he is the most qualified guy to take that step forward. Him and Peyton Pritchard, I expect to be bigger, uh, volume scorers.
1:04:19 Bill Simmons? I agree. Kirk Goldsberry, great to see you. Uh, what do you got?
1:04:22 Speaker 01 That's just a stress ball. That's for basketball. No big deal. Oh, I got a article on The Ringer tomorrow, the seven charts that define the quarter century in the NBA. So check that out.
1:04:31 Bill Simmons? Oh, yeah. Sounds great. Great to see you. Thanks for coming on.
1:04:35 Speaker 01 Thank you, Bill.
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1:05:02 Speaker 03 Paid partnership with Johnson & Johnson. Brian Dawkins has not prescribed Caprola Lutetron.
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1:06:01 Speaker 04 Ask your doctor about Caplyta. Learn more at caplyta.com or call 888-252-4824.
1:06:07 Bill Simmons? This episode is brought to you by Carhartt. We spend a lot of time talking about football, the players, the coaches, the big plays, but there's a whole other team we rarely think about, the people who make the game possible, the workers building stadiums, paving parking lots, growing the grass, welding the goalposts, even making the footballs. They're committed to their craft and they're doing the work long before kickoff. Carhartt is proud to outfit those crews. So next time you're watching a game, take a second to appreciate the people behind it. Learn more at carhartt.com/jointhetrades. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you so they can help personalize coverage
1:06:52 Bill Simmons? for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. All right, recording later afternoon Pacific time. Joe House here as always to do our really sad Ringer 107. We're gonna try to turn around this week. We brought in some help. I'm not sad. We're gonna have a threesome this week, House. Married couples sometimes need to spice it up. Oh, boy. Bringing our friend Chris Vernon to spice it up with us. But I do want to tell you. So you weren't here when I had Kirk Goldsboro. We talked basketball. I did my whole thing about how I thought the Celtics were gonna be deranged in a good way on offense and people don't realize they're actually gonna be pretty fun and better than people think. And I talked to my dad, who watched the game, and my dad goes, You know who I loved? And I thought he was gonna say like, I don't know, Peyton Pritchard
1:07:36 Bill Simmons? or whatever. He's like, Hugo Gonzalez.
1:07:39 Speaker 05 Oh, yeah.
1:07:40 Bill Simmons? He's gonna be really good right away. And I'm like, basketball season is here. My dad has adopted the 13th man on the team as, as allegedly gonna be help us. But Verno, you saw the game.
1:07:51 Speaker 05 I agree with your father.
1:07:53 Bill Simmons? Wow.
1:07:54 Speaker 05 Oh, yeah. I'm, I'm in on Hugo.
1:07:56 Bill Simmons? You're in.
1:07:57 Speaker 05 Oh, yeah. Ball came off the rim. You know, there's, at that point, your animal instinct comes in, right? And there's some guys that fade away, and there's some guys that hold on to it. And there's some guys that start ripping the ball away. They just got this extra level of aggression. That was Gonzalez. Also got a ball on the break and hammered it, hammered it on a breakaway. And I was like, okay, Hugo Gonzalez, your team is going to stink. But Hugo Gonzalez is gonna be fun.
1:08:26 Bill Simmons? We're gonna shoot 60 plus threes a game and it's gonna be awesome. And Jason Tatum's coming back. He said it today.
1:08:32 Speaker 05 Last night was an absolute abomination before the eyes of God and man. It was 60 fouls and 76 free throws in a preseason game. It wa- I mean, it's unwatchable. It's totally unwatchable.
1:08:47 Bill Simmons? What's the referee agenda this year? What are they trying to crack down on? Could you even tell?
1:08:51 Speaker 05 No, you can, no. Not with 60, 60 effing fouls. What are, what are we talking about? It was, yeah, I know. Right? Because a couple of years ago. Like, what are we, what point are we making? It was, it was terrible. It was terrible to watch. No, you just need, like, you got a big guy you can find? You ain't got no big guys, Bill.
1:09:12 Bill Simmons? Wait, my dad and I mentioned that before I hung up on him to do this part of the podcast. We're like, I, I'm excited to watch the team. We don't have anyone who can rebound. A crucial part of basketball.
1:09:22 Speaker 05 I mean, you can't run out, you know, Tillman and Garza and like, I mean, it's just, I mean, again, when the other teams have like, you know, when you're playing on a Tuesday night and you're going up against, you know, Alpern, Shen Goon and Steven Adams, like, you might, you might not touch the ball.
1:09:39 Bill Simmons? It's, it's all, these are all very fair points and I'm still going over for the Celtics. And you know, I'm going over.
1:09:46 Speaker 05 Hey, I listened to your, I listened to your pod last week. I don't hate the Jalen Browde like tops in the league in scoring.
1:09:56 Bill Simmons? The score.
1:09:57 Speaker 05 I mean, who else is gonna score? Seriously, I went and looked it up tonight.
1:10:03 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:10:03 Speaker 05 He's averaged 27 a game in games without Tatum. And that's when they had other like real players on the team. Who is, who is he worried about passing to on that team?
1:10:15 Bill Simmons? I said to. I said to Goldsberry, one of my favorite FanDuel bets, I don't think I've given this to Joe House either. House, you should make this bet live on the show. House just checked out.
1:10:25 Speaker 06 Book's open. The book's open. Hold on. I'm opening it up.
1:10:28 Bill Simmons? Pritchard for most threes this season, 25 to one.
1:10:31 Speaker 06 25 to one Peyton Pritchard most threes.
1:10:33 Bill Simmons? Guess where he finished last year for threes? Fifth.
1:10:36 Speaker 06 Peyton Pritchard.
1:10:37 Bill Simmons? They're all gonna be divvying up Tatum's shots and points like, like, it's like, like dad didn't come home for dinner and you get like extra food.
1:10:46 Speaker 05 I will say, I thought it was cool. Uh, Tatum was here. He, he, he was with the team and like was over at, over at the University of Memphis and he visited with Penny Hardaway. And um, yeah, he was bopping around. And I mean, I always, I always think there's something to that, right? Like he could be away. He could be just staying at all. Like, why is he traveling to preseason games?
1:11:08 Bill Simmons? He's been, I think he's been in the facility every day since he got hurt.
1:11:13 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:11:13 Bill Simmons? Can, so House and I are doing over unders next week. I don't want to step on that, but we do have Chris Vernon here, Mr. Memphis.
1:11:20 Speaker 05 Uh oh.
1:11:21 Bill Simmons? FanDuel gave Memphis the all time F you over under total of 40 and a half, House. That's the, you could go 500 and get a W with this. They went 48 and 34 last year, but you have some injuries even before the season starts. But what do we, what do we expect from the Grizz?
1:11:40 Speaker 05 I think that they will be, they're going over that. That's appalling. Come on.
1:11:46 Bill Simmons? Is it?
1:11:46 Speaker 05 Break. Yeah. I mean, look, again, you can always do the, and you could do this with every team, if so and so is healthy. But I mean, they had Morant for 50 games last year and look at what their record was.
1:12:00 Speaker 05 Well, I mean,
1:12:00 Bill Simmons? Can you walk us through the injuries?
1:12:02 Speaker 05 And they had.
1:12:02 Bill Simmons? Through the injuries for this year?
1:12:04 Speaker 05 Jackson will be back.
1:12:05 Bill Simmons? He'll be fine. But when does he come back? And when does he come back?
1:12:07 Speaker 05 Within the, within the first week of the season. He might be back before, I mean, he might be back for opening night, but I mean, he'll be back. I, I would be stunned if Jaren Jackson, Jr. Misses more than four games. I, I don't think he'll even miss.
1:12:21 Bill Simmons? How about ED?
1:12:22 Speaker 05 Uh, probably December, I'd guess.
1:12:24 Bill Simmons? That means January.
1:12:26 Speaker 05 They're just going to be super careful with that because it was a foot surgery. But I mean, he was at the game last night and he's walking around without a boot.
1:12:33 Bill Simmons? And so. House Memphis Grizzlies to make the playoffs plus 154.
1:12:40 Speaker 05 Oof.
1:12:41 Bill Simmons? I don't know. I mean, I'm, look at the roster. I think that's a no for me, too. They're minus 210 for a no. I think it's a no for me, Verno. Make the case. You replace me.
1:12:52 Speaker 05 When they, when they, when they have had John Morant and Jaren Jackson, Jr., they've always won over 60% of their games. Last year they were the two seed until the last month of the season when they totally collapsed. The, the two previous years, when they were both healthy, they were the two seed, both of those years. And then of course they had the season from hell where the whole team got hurt and then they got the lottery pick. And then they move into this year and again, well, when John Morant plays, they win. When Jaren Jackson plays, they win. So if you, if you want to hedge and bet against them playing, but they have been good enough to even win despite John Moran only playing 50 games last year.
1:13:38 Bill Simmons? When Jaren Jackson plays, they win unless it's Team USA.
1:13:41 Speaker 05 Oh, stop, stop. Come on.
1:13:44 Bill Simmons? That was just for House.
1:13:47 Speaker 05 I did enjoy it.
1:13:49 Bill Simmons? I gotta please House every once in a while.
1:13:50 Speaker 05 Enjoy it.
1:13:51 Bill Simmons? So is it fair to say this is your starting five, Verno?
1:13:56 Bill Simmons? Jaren Jackson.
1:13:59 Bill Simmons? Santi?
1:14:00 Speaker 05 No. I don't think so. I think at the very beginning of the season, possibly.
1:14:05 Bill Simmons? All right, let's go backwards. Jaren Jackson and Ja, who were the other three people starting for the Grizzlies?
1:14:10 Speaker 05 Caldwell-Pope, maybe Wells. If it's not Wells, I'd imagine the 10th pick Cedric Coward and then.
1:14:18 Bill Simmons? Cedric Coward's starting?
1:14:20 Speaker 05 No, no, no, no, no. It'll be Wells at the beginning.
1:14:22 Bill Simmons? Okay.
1:14:23 Speaker 05 That's what I think. I think it'll be Wells at the beginning and then Coward eventually. That's what I'd guess.
1:14:28 Bill Simmons? And Ty Jerome as sixth man?
1:14:30 Speaker 05 Correct. And then it'll be Edie, but in the absence of Edie, it'll be Landell at the beginning of the season. It'll be Jock Landell. Who's just gonna set screens and be a poor man Steven Adams, you know?
1:14:42 Bill Simmons? And you still have Pippen.
1:14:44 Speaker 05 Correct. Still have Pippen.
1:14:46 Bill Simmons? Unless you trade him to the Rockets for like one of those Nets picks or something. Try to get, try to hijack them.
1:14:53 Speaker 05 I, I, I don't, I suppose anything is possible that you could try to change. And then they need one of these guys.
1:15:01 Bill Simmons? They're not getting a Nets pick for Pippen, by the way. I just.
1:15:03 Speaker 05 They need one of these guys that was, that was pretty good two years ago. Gigi Jackson or.
1:15:07 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:15:08 Speaker 05 Vince Williams to pop. Like they need one of them to be able to go. And then, you know, off the bench, they're gonna have, we mentioned Santay Aldama, Scottie Pippen Jr., Ty Jerome. Like they got good players.
1:15:21 Bill Simmons? House, this was not a compelling case. You don't seem compelled at all.
1:15:26 Speaker 06 If you want to sell me on 41 wins for this team, and that's an over, right? 41 is over.
1:15:31 Bill Simmons? 41 is over.
1:15:32 Speaker 06 Then I can, I think I can work my way there, but this team.
1:15:35 Speaker 05 It's all, it's all dependent on whether or not you, what, what, what your level of belief in Morant is. And my level is obviously going to be greater than y'all's. Like.
1:15:43 Speaker 06 That, that's true.
1:15:44 Speaker 05 I think when he plays, he is a superstar that makes everybody better.
1:15:50 Speaker 06 I can't believe what I watched from this team defensively last year at the end of the season. I just can't, can't believe it.
1:15:57 Speaker 05 Well, the coach got fired, House.
1:15:59 Speaker 06 Congratulations. He deserved it. I mean.
1:16:04 Bill Simmons? So Ja Morant now 26 years old, House?
1:16:06 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:16:09 Bill Simmons? This is right around when it's, it's gotta happen or it's not gonna happen.
1:16:12 Speaker 05 It's gotta happen.
1:16:13 Speaker 06 It's gotta happen. He's gotta play. We'll, we'll set the over under for number of games that Ja Morant's gonna play, then I'll tell you how many games they're gonna win. Tell me how many games he's gonna play.
1:16:22 Speaker 05 All right. Let's say he get, let's say he gets to the number. Let's say he gets to 65.
1:16:27 Bill Simmons? That'd be almost a career high.
1:16:30 Speaker 06 That's true. It would be.
1:16:32 Bill Simmons? Literally, that'd be a career high. He's played 67. It's his career high.
1:16:36 Speaker 05 Yep.
1:16:38 Speaker 05 I mean, I don't know. And he's gotten beat up for it. Look, I mean, there's a lot of guys that have gotten beat up for their injuries. And then like, I mean, you know, it's interesting the way it plays out. It's also when you get injured, if you're not able to finish out seasons like you didn't last year, when he got clipped in the Oklahoma City series. And so, because you know, they do these rankings and you see on the rankings, like you never bring up that Chet Holmgren doesn't play, do you? Never. Chet Holmgren's averaged what? 30 games a year and it's three years in the NBA?
1:17:08 Bill Simmons? Some in the playoffs for four straight rounds.
1:17:10 Speaker 05 I, that's what I'm saying. It's all dependent on when do you get hurt?
1:17:15 Bill Simmons? House, do you think Ja Morant career games combined with Zion Williamson career games added together is more than Joel Embiid's career games?
1:17:27 Speaker 06 Yes. Yes.
1:17:29 Bill Simmons? You think, you think yes?
1:17:31 Speaker 06 Those two, yeah, well, cause they're still both young and Joel Embiid has one year left.
1:17:36 Bill Simmons? Verno, Joel Embiid career games versus?
1:17:38 Speaker 05 Up to this point?
1:17:39 Bill Simmons? Yeah, right now.
1:17:41 Speaker 06 Oh, I misunderstood. I thought you were saying career wise. Okay, I misunderstood.
1:17:45 Bill Simmons? Yeah, career wise. Zion's career games plus Ja's career games versus Embiid's career games?
1:17:53 Bill Simmons? What number is higher?
1:17:54 Speaker 05 I mean, Embiid was, he's been in the league so much longer.
1:17:57 Speaker 06 Right. I agree.
1:17:58 Speaker 05 So it'll have to be Embiid.
1:18:00 Bill Simmons? The answer is Zion plus Ja Morant together.
1:18:03 Speaker 05 Wow. Yeah, that's incredible.
1:18:06 Bill Simmons? Embiid's played 452 games. Zion has played 214 in 11 years.
1:18:15 Bill Simmons? Zion's at 214.
1:18:18 Bill Simmons? And Ja Morant is at a zesty 307.
1:18:23 Bill Simmons? 523 combined. 67, 63, 57, 61, 9 and 50. I'm gonna say this is the year.
1:18:31 Speaker 05 The reason I don't really, listen, the reason I get upset about the Morant stuff. Morant has led and carried a team to the playoffs.
1:18:37 Bill Simmons? To winning stuff.
1:18:38 Speaker 05 Don't talk about him like you talk about Zion, like you talk about LaMelo, like you talk about all these other guys that haven't done nothing. He has scored, when he scored whatever, 49 points in a playoff game, like he went head to head. He knocked out Golden State on their home floor out of the playoffs. Steph Curry, Draymond Green, the year before they won the title, it is the long forgotten moment that they played in the play in and he went heads up with them and won on their home floor. When he has been healthy, he has been able to perform at a level that very, very, very few guys in the NBA can match. And again, if you want to bet against his health,
1:19:20 Speaker 05 I, I cannot convince you otherwise. Like I think it's a fair, it's fair. Obviously it's fair.
1:19:25 Bill Simmons? House, that was spoken like a man who has a lot of Ja Morant memorabilia in his son's room.
1:19:33 Speaker 05 I should turn this camera around. Oh my God. Oh, this game ruins it too much.
1:19:39 Speaker 06 If Ja Morant's healthy, so I'm rooting for it. I'm never not rooting for Ja Morant.
1:19:44 Bill Simmons? Ja Morant, Zion and LaMelo. The season's more fun if all of those guys can just fucking play for six straight months.
1:19:50 Speaker 06 Yes.
1:19:51 Bill Simmons? Like especially LaMelo. I don't know if we've ever really even seen it for six straight months. At least with Ja, we've seen it. With Zion, we saw it for half a year once.
1:19:59 Speaker 05 We need it badly too. They've come out with these lists and that none of the top five guys are even American.
1:20:06 Speaker 06 That's, there you go. That's exactly right.
1:20:07 Speaker 05 Some of these American guys to stay healthy and pop and become superstars.
1:20:12 Bill Simmons? Well, thank God for 18 year old Cooper Flag.
1:20:14 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:20:15 Bill Simmons? He's here to save the nation.
1:20:16 Speaker 05 Oh God.
1:20:17 Bill Simmons? He's here to put, he's here to guard five positions on a 55 win Dallas Mavericks team.
1:20:22 Speaker 05 Oh my, what?
1:20:25 Bill Simmons? That, that I just, now I'm just talking crazy. No. But I do think they are, I do think they're going to be a playoff team.
1:20:32 Speaker 05 You do?
1:20:33 Bill Simmons? I do. I do. And I don't know.
1:20:36 Speaker 05 Hey, who did they play in the play in last year?
1:20:39 Bill Simmons? They got murdered by Memphis.
1:20:41 Speaker 05 Oh.
1:20:42 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:20:43 Speaker 05 That's right.
1:20:44 Bill Simmons? The one I don't understand, and I think has the biggest variance all over the place is Golden State.
1:20:51 Bill Simmons? Cause
1:20:51 Speaker 05 I don't know how variance that is.
1:20:53 Bill Simmons? Well, Pelton's projection system had them for 57 wins, which he admittedly was like, I don't know what to make of this. But uh,
1:21:00 Speaker 05 I mean, they got awesome players.
1:21:03 Bill Simmons? They're old.
1:21:04 Speaker 05 I got it, but I mean, if you go from the time that they acquired Butler.
1:21:11 Bill Simmons? Right.
1:21:11 Speaker 05 To the day that Curry got hurt.
1:21:14 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:21:16 Speaker 05 They were 31 and 11.
1:21:19 Speaker 05 I mean,
1:21:22 Bill Simmons? I'm gonna be rooting for them even more than usual because they have my guy Al Horford, beloved Celtic.
1:21:27 Speaker 05 So I'm not saying that they're gonna win 30 or 40 games. I think that, you know, look, every game mattered to them at the end of the season because they were just trying to scrap a claw to into the playoffs. But, and they're probably a vet team that'll probably take some, you know, take nights off. But, I mean, they have showed, you know, between those three, there's not some kind of, unless it shows up this year, they haven't had like, a big letdown in talent. Like, I mean, Curry, Curry, Draymond and Butler all still perform at a very, very high level despite their age.
1:22:03 Bill Simmons? House, what's your dream Yanis trade location? You even told me this.
1:22:06 Speaker 06 Oh, wow. Uh, I haven't really.
1:22:09 Bill Simmons? Send him anywhere. Where would you send him?
1:22:12 Speaker 06 Denver. I would love to see, you know.
1:22:14 Bill Simmons? That, that can't happen. Realistic.
1:22:18 Bill Simmons? Which is like basically the three Texas teams, the Knicks. Uh, I don't know, even maybe Golden State.
1:22:26 Speaker 06 Without having a perspective on who's gonna, who, who, who has to go to the Bucks in exchange? Like, who would he be playing with?
1:22:34 Bill Simmons? I thought the most exciting one at the more and more I thought about it was if San Antonio just said, fuck it. Just the thought of him and Wemby on the same team would be just so weird to watch those two guys together. Can you imagine?
1:22:45 Speaker 06 Send to Milwaukee that Milwaukee would take.
1:22:48 Bill Simmons? They have all those picks, plus they have young guys. I mean, there's, there's a trade they can put together. They have a bunch of assets.
1:22:56 Speaker 05 And Fox is the big contract?
1:22:59 Bill Simmons? Maybe Fox is the big contract. Fox already hurt.
1:23:03 Speaker 05 I mean.
1:23:03 Bill Simmons? House making a face. I don't like it.
1:23:06 Speaker 05 You don't like it?
1:23:06 Bill Simmons? What are you most excited about for the season? Cause we're, we're less than two weeks away now. What's your number one non-Mitts thing?
1:23:12 Speaker 05 The rookie class. Unbelievable. Like have you guys, I don't know. Again, it's all football, football, football right now. But obviously in the interest of getting ready for the mismatch with me and Jacoby, I have been paying attention in a ridiculous way to this preseason in a way that I would not normally. And so I've been trying to catch up on all the games, watch the highlights, whatever.
1:23:37 Speaker 05 Last year was such a colossal dud, right? Alex Sar, Reese Shea, the third pick, Reed Shepard didn't even play.
1:23:45 Bill Simmons? It's like a G leaguer.
1:23:46 Speaker 05 I mean, it just stunk. Yeah. And this year, oh my God. I mean, in between the Ace Bailey highlights last night. I mean, freakish. You have, he had 25 and he looks like frigging Durant out there. I mean, it's unbelievable. I can't believe how he moved for a 6'10" guy. So you've got him, you've got Cooper Flag, you've got the Yakachunas, the kid from Miami had like 10 assists in their game.
1:24:17 Bill Simmons? That's my favorite pick.
1:24:18 Speaker 05 Good assist too. Good assist. And I mean, just up and down. Coward, Hugo Gonzalez, I saw both of them, you know, last night.
1:24:28 Bill Simmons? Dylan Harper buried, buried in the San Antonio bench, probably playing 15 minutes a game.
1:24:33 Speaker 05 I just think up and down, especially after we got, you know, it is so much.
1:24:39 Bill Simmons? Verno, you gotta mention House's new guy.
1:24:42 Speaker 06 No, it's fine.
1:24:43 Speaker 05 Trey Johnson.
1:24:43 Speaker 06 Trey Johnson, he's, he's fine. It's gonna be good.
1:24:46 Bill Simmons? He was gonna say it.
1:24:47 Speaker 06 They haven't played any preseason games yet. Watch.
1:24:49 Speaker 05 I gotta be honest.
1:24:49 Bill Simmons? Just talk for two seconds.
1:24:51 Speaker 06 They haven't played any. They don't, they play next week.
1:24:52 Bill Simmons? Just, just give them a look.
1:24:53 Speaker 06 It's fine.
1:24:54 Speaker 05 Trey Johnson's got knockdown shots. I'm a little upset about the, about the Wizards. So you know, House has delivered it to me before. I've got friends with the Wizards. They have the most unbelievable bobbleheads. That's what they do. Like.
1:25:10 Speaker 06 Very good bobbleheads. True story.
1:25:11 Speaker 05 If your team's gonna stink, you might as well have good bobbleheads, right? That's what I've always thought, right? Cause then people want to come to your games like, cool bobblehead.
1:25:19 Speaker 02 In fact, look, I'll show you an example.
1:25:23 Speaker 05 Look at this. This is from the Wizards last year.
1:25:26 Speaker 06 There you go.
1:25:27 Speaker 05 That's a Pusha T bobblehead.
1:25:29 Speaker 06 Yep.
1:25:30 Speaker 05 They had Francis Tiafoe. They had all kinds of cool ones, right? So I go look at their promotional schedule this year. I'm like, I cannot, one of the things I really look forward to is Washington Wizards bobbleheads. They have the Kyle Kuzma in the pink sweater.
1:25:44 Speaker 06 You have that.
1:25:45 Speaker 05 Yeah, I did, because I brought it to you. Yep. Unbelievable ones. They have one friggin bobblehead night this year.
1:25:54 Bill Simmons? Oh, they cut back, cut the budget.
1:25:56 Speaker 05 Kishon George.
1:25:58 Speaker 06 Key Sean.
1:26:00 Speaker 05 Whatever. Who cares? And, and it's like a thousand Hawaiian shirt nights. Like of different colleges and then a SpongeBob SquarePants jersey, which is admittedly awesome.
1:26:16 Speaker 06 Yes. I'll get you one of those.
1:26:19 Speaker 05 They're one of the teams that does great bobbleheads.
1:26:22 Speaker 06 Alex Sar.
1:26:23 Speaker 05 I feel like they've abandoned me, you know what I mean?
1:26:25 Bill Simmons? House, what happened? Are they saving money? What's going on?
1:26:28 Speaker 06 No, definitely not. Uh, I, I, I don't have a good explanation. I'll, I'll.
1:26:33 Speaker 05 Talk to the Leontes. They ran out of people. Nobody wants the, nobody's gonna come for the player.
1:26:38 Speaker 06 I'll be at the games. I'll, I'll be there. So.
1:26:40 Speaker 05 Oh, hey, then you got, you know what you gotta get me this year? A pair of, uh, Bob Carrington pajamas. That's one of the nights.
1:26:49 Speaker 06 Okay, done. Easy.
1:26:51 Bill Simmons? Bob Carrington pajama night? That's a night?
1:26:54 Speaker 06 Bob Carrington pajamas are at least as good as, as a bobblehead.
1:26:58 Speaker 05 Carrington pajama night.
1:26:59 Speaker 06 That's pretty good.
1:27:01 Bill Simmons? Sounds like X-rated.
1:27:03 Speaker 06 Oh, no, no, no, no. That was a different era. That was the Gilbert Arenas era.
1:27:08 Speaker 05 It's a real thing. But anyways, yeah, I was, I was really upset with the Wizards. But yeah, super excited to watch Trey Johnson.
1:27:15 Bill Simmons? House, where are you with the seven stages of Trey Johnson? We're still in the happy honeymoon phase?
1:27:20 Speaker 06 Well, I was skeptical. I wanted the big kid from Duke. I wanted like a rim protector for the young defense. But, you know, all the indications are that, you know, he's the hardest worker. He's the first one in the gym and the last one out.
1:27:35 Bill Simmons? Oh, I like those.
1:27:35 Speaker 06 He's standing there for, you know, getting up thousands of shots. They have to like, you know, turn out the lights to drive him out of there.
1:27:42 Bill Simmons? That should be a website where every team lists who first one in the gym, last one to leave is for the team. I just, stuff I'd want to know.
1:27:50 Speaker 06 Good information. So, yeah.
1:27:52 Bill Simmons? So he's the first one to get to the gym on the Wizards?
1:27:55 Speaker 06 So they say. That's what the stories are.
1:27:57 Bill Simmons? Okay, Verno.
1:28:00 Bill Simmons? I think he's gonna score lots of points.
1:28:02 Speaker 06 Me too. I agree with that.
1:28:04 Bill Simmons? I don't know if your team's gonna win games, but I think he's gonna be fun to watch.
1:28:08 Speaker 06 It's an over for me this year.
1:28:09 Speaker 05 Oh, my God.
1:28:11 Speaker 06 Twenty-two games.
1:28:12 Speaker 05 All right, that's more appalling than my over.
1:28:13 Speaker 06 No, it's not. They were right around nineteen or twenty last year. We're only asking to win two or three more.
1:28:18 Bill Simmons? You had Jordan Poole.
1:28:22 Bill Simmons? House enjoyed Jordan Poole.
1:28:23 Speaker 06 Is that a good thing?
1:28:24 Bill Simmons? House wished him his best when he left.
1:28:26 Speaker 06 I sure did. CJ McCollum and Chris Middleton are on this team for at least the first two months.
1:28:33 Bill Simmons? House, what's your number one thing you're most excited about this season, non-Wizards related? Do you have that?
1:28:38 Speaker 06 Oh, yeah, for sure. No joke, all BS aside, it's Denver. It's seeing Denver, seeing the Joker finally with the thing that everybody's been begging Denver to do. They finally figured it out. They finally put somebody in charge. Cronkite stepped up like, okay, I'll be the guy. We're not gonna keep having the coach and the front office, you know, fighting over the direction of the team. And now they have a full complement. So we're just knocking on wood for good health over the course of the season for Denver because that should be an awesome fucking basketball team in the West, with a West that is an awesome fucking Western Conference. So let's go.
1:29:17 Speaker 05 I agree. I agree. They could have very easily like. Tried to just keep it going, right? Like, oh, we lost in game seven and Aaron Gordon got hurt and this happened. Instead, they remade it. They remade the team.
1:29:30 Bill Simmons? They didn't even spend that much money. They're still like under the aprons and stuff. They still have a little room to do even more.
1:29:36 Speaker 05 But we see this every year. Teams just stick with it and then they make excuses for why they lost. Instead of saying, okay, we need to go a different route in order to get where we want to go. It's not good enough. And they looked at it and said, it's not good enough. So I, I give them a, I give them credit. Like this is what you're supposed to do when you've got a generational player.
1:29:56 Bill Simmons? Yes, exactly. Denver was my number one, closely followed by number two, the Celtics just rolling out five white guys. Five, five white guys, just unabashedly just jacking up threes. People are going to think they're at a YMCA. It's like, I thought I was at an NBA game, but how much in five white guys jacking up threes? What happened?
1:30:19 Speaker 05 I don't think it works in 2025.
1:30:22 Bill Simmons? Probably not. Uh, we're going to take a quick break and then we're going to do Ringer 107, the real reason we brought Verno on. Hey, I was lucky enough to get a son and a daughter through their early teens and their mid teens in the social media era. And even though we were constantly monitoring it, there's still a whole bunch of stuff that can go wrong. And that's why Instagram teen accounts have automatic protections on by default. Built in content settings for the content teens can see. Contact limits for who can contact them and time management tools like daily time limits. And sleep mode, teens are automatically placed into teen accounts. Teens under 16 will need a parent's permission to change any of these settings to be less strict.
1:31:04 Bill Simmons? Instagram will continue adding built in safety features to help create age appropriate experiences. Learn more about teen accounts and Instagram's ongoing work to protect teens online at instagram.com/teenaccounts. This episode is brought to by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what, you're going to want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn or spooky season, whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs or the weather's fault, you're going to want WeatherTech for American made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather. Visit weatherTech.com today. All right, Verno.
1:31:42 Speaker 05 Yep.
1:31:43 Bill Simmons? House and I are 10 and 15 in this Ringer 107 contest.
1:31:47 Speaker 05 Let's think.
1:31:47 Bill Simmons? In seven of those picks.
1:31:49 Speaker 05 It does.
1:31:50 Bill Simmons? We thought we had the game. We blew a lead and the other team won on a fourth quarter come from behind drive. We have not had that happen for us yet this season, but we're seven times it's happened the other way. Most recently, week five, Ja's 31, Kansas City 28. We had the Chiefs. That game was 14-0 with the Chiefs about to score again. Bucks 38, Seahawks 35, and then Broncos 18, Eagles 17. This all started in week one when we had the Ravens. And I texted House, "All right, we're gonna go to our way to three and two or four and one, whatever." And then that apocalypse happened. And we just had to change our juju, so we invited you on. As you're more of a degenerate gambler than I think either of us are.
1:32:34 Speaker 06 At least equal.
1:32:35 Bill Simmons? At least, yeah. You're at least a kindred spirit.
1:32:39 Speaker 06 Yes.
1:32:39 Bill Simmons? So we're gonna walk through some picks. I asked you to bring a pick.
1:32:43 Speaker 05 Yep.
1:32:44 Bill Simmons? I'm gonna rip through, well, first of all, the games we're staying away from, unless you guys vehemently object. The London game, I'm not doing that again. Broncos, Jets, just no more at 9:30 a.m. PT, I'm out. I just can't, can't win them.
1:32:58 Speaker 05 It's my game.
1:32:59 Bill Simmons? Oh, that's your game? All right. We'll come back.
1:33:01 Speaker 06 Wow.
1:33:01 Bill Simmons? We'll come back to it. I guess we'll come back to it.
1:33:03 Speaker 06 Love it.
1:33:04 Speaker 05 You have to. You have to come back to it.
1:33:07 Bill Simmons? The Ravens kitchen sink versus the Rams game. I don't want, either way, I'm out. I'd stay away.
1:33:13 Speaker 05 Totally fine.
1:33:13 Bill Simmons? Line's too high.
1:33:16 Bill Simmons? Dolphins, Chargers. The Chargers can't block anymore. They've lost their offensive line and seem like they're cratering. And then the Dolphins, if they lose this game, Mike McDaniel is gonna get fired. I would just rather stay away. I don't know what's gonna happen in that game. Titans, Raiders, stay away. Packers, minus 14 and a half against the Bengals, stay away.
1:33:38 Bill Simmons? I had a couple of maybes. I'm willing to be talked out of any of these.
1:33:43 Bill Simmons? Seahawks plus one and a half at Jacksonville. Jacksonville coming off the biggest win they've had all decade.
1:33:51 Bill Simmons? And the reason it was, I kind of was leaning Seahawks, but the defense, I don't know who's playing for Seattle. Did you have this one marked, House?
1:34:00 Speaker 06 I considered strongly trying to make the case for Seattle.
1:34:04 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:34:04 Speaker 06 That secondary, the secondary thing, because indeed, you know, it's right to be skeptical of Jacksonville. The history of Trevor Lawrence and this Jacksonville Jaguars team tells us, don't, don't let them get too full of themselves.
1:34:19 Bill Simmons? Right. They, they line you up to then kick you in the nuts. There's some good stats for Seattle where they're fifth in the pass. Jacksonville's defense is 27th against pass. They're third in the run. Seattle's defense is fifth against, they're, I'm just staying away. Bruno, you, you agree that's stay away, correct?
1:34:36 Speaker 05 Yes.
1:34:37 Bill Simmons? Okay. Niners Bucks. Now this is Mac Jones. Niners plus three over the Bucks.
1:34:44 Speaker 05 That's Bucks, Bucks are nothing. There's no way I'd touch the 49ers with all those injuries.
1:34:50 Bill Simmons? Also feels like it's a classic, whoever has the ball with three minutes left is, I don't want any part of it. Tampa have with no real wins this year. They've lost once and they've had four games that could have gone either way. They still haven't like had a convincing win. Stay away all the way around.
1:35:08 Bill Simmons? Bears, Washington House.
1:35:12 Bill Simmons? Bears plus four and a half. It's the Hail Mary game rematch. There's some good stats in the Washington favor. Did you have this marked?
1:35:20 Speaker 06 I didn't have it marked, but if you had come in prepared to make the case, I have lots of good Washington angles to support it. I certainly would not endorse Chicago and, and the points, even though they're coming off of a buy. I don't care. I don't think they're very good. I don't think their defense is very good. And Caleb's wearing a knee brace. The thing that is underrated about Washington, they have a pass rush. They are in, if you look at the, that the numbers inside the trenches, they're good at stopping the run and they are putting pressure on. They had five sacks. Now you can say whatever you want about the Chargers and the, all the, the injuries to the offensive line. They were at, at home.
1:36:06 Speaker 06 They knew about the injuries. They couldn't do anything about the Washington pass rush. Nobody is saying, oh, coming into the season, let's look at the Washington pass rush, right?
1:36:15 Bill Simmons? Hmm. Well, you also are first running the ball. Chicago's 31st.
1:36:20 Speaker 05 Bill.
1:36:22 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:36:23 Speaker 06 That's him.
1:36:24 Speaker 05 No.
1:36:24 Speaker 06 It's Bill.
1:36:25 Speaker 05 That's the guy.
1:36:25 Speaker 06 Bill, our guy Bill.
1:36:28 Speaker 05 The guy that went crazy when Tom Brady interviewed him after the game. He started, he almost started crying after the game. He was so excited to talk to Tom Brady.
1:36:37 Speaker 06 You can blame him.
1:36:40 Speaker 06 So handsome, Tom Brady.
1:36:42 Bill Simmons? This is a maybe that almost became a possible for me. And I'm happy to be talked into it as one of the five picks. The Cleveland Browns, plus five and a half in Pittsburgh.
1:36:53 Speaker 05 No chance.
1:36:54 Speaker 06 No chance. It's a.
1:36:55 Speaker 05 Dylan Gabriel?
1:36:57 Bill Simmons? Well, that's what I marked down right underneath it. Rookie QB on the road, three question marks.
1:37:03 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:37:03 Bill Simmons? That's why not to do it.
1:37:04 Speaker 05 Scared.
1:37:05 Speaker 06 There's, it's a never happened in history spot for the Browns. It's their third straight road game. They're coming back off of an international game. They did not take a break and the Steelers are coming off their bye. This has never happened before in the history of the league. Uh, and so the, the play to me, if you, if you wanted to have anything to do with this game, just play Pittsburgh on the money line.
1:37:30 Bill Simmons? No.
1:37:30 Speaker 06 It's a money line play.
1:37:31 Bill Simmons? Not doing that.
1:37:32 Speaker 06 Okay, it's fine. You don't have to.
1:37:33 Bill Simmons? I'm tired of losing money on Pittsburgh, marking that out. All right, we'll go to the problems. So make your London game case for now. Let's hear it.
1:37:41 Speaker 05 All right, so.
1:37:45 Speaker 05 Here's my case. Number one, I think the Broncos are going to kill the Jets. All right. The line is what? Seven, seven and a half?
1:37:55 Bill Simmons? Six and a half.
1:37:56 Speaker 06 We settled at six and a half. Wow.
1:37:58 Speaker 05 God, I mean, that, that's.
1:37:59 Bill Simmons? Neutral field, London.
1:38:00 Speaker 05 A gift, an absolute gift. Look, I am a Cowboys fan, so I settled in and watched the entire game last week. That Jets team is the worst team in the league. That, I don't, you go look at the score.
1:38:14 Speaker 06 There's some competition.
1:38:15 Speaker 05 That game was 30 to three.
1:38:19 Speaker 05 My team can't sack anybody and they were on Fields ass the entire game. Denver is going to maul him. Denver is a fantastic team that has tricked people by this record. They should be four and one and people would think about them differently.
1:38:38 Bill Simmons? Last week and he talked me out of it. Man, it's the fucking Eagles.
1:38:41 Speaker 05 They got the leverage thing against the Colts. Which is the worst call of the entire NFL season.
1:38:47 Bill Simmons? It is true.
1:38:48 Speaker 05 The leverage call at the end. So that's four and one. The kid or the guy missed the kick right before that. So that would be four and one and look at their loss. It's not a bad like the two losses are like
1:39:00 Bill Simmons? The Chargers where Herbert made two crazy awesome throws to beat them.
1:39:05 Speaker 05 I think, I think the Broncos are better than their record shows and I think the Jets are absolutely abominable. And, and, and I'm just going to give you, I know you want to stay away from international games. In international games, if you just blindfolded, took heavy favorites in these games, a lot of the games are, they don't feature a heavy favorite, right? It'll be like the Jaguars versus somebody and it's a four. In all of the games, there's been 15 times that an international game has posted a line six or above. The favorite has covered that line. It's 12 and three. So if they post it where somebody is supposed to win by a touchdown.
1:39:50 Speaker 05 I mean, 12 out of the 15 times that has happened. So when I know those are the numbers and that typically the big favorites do perform extremely well in the international games. And I already thought on the front end, oh my God. Look, I have a realistic approach to what my team is Dallas. They're not, they're okay. They're fine. Their offense is good. Their defense is stinks. Their defense looked like frigging doomsday against this Jets team. They can't block anybody. You don't even know the guys that were getting sacks. My son is looking them up on Wikipedia. Like where did he come from?
1:40:31 Speaker 05 Like, and so I, I already had it in my mind. Oh God. Like I think Denver is way better than Dallas. So I think they are going to maul them, maul them. And so this one is, this, to me, this is an easy one, which I know is a famous last words in the NFL. I just think, I think the Jets are horrendous, like truly horrendous.
1:40:58 Bill Simmons? Well, we have, Denver's got like a top four running attack. Jets are like 27th against the run. There's all these good offensive protection stats for the Denver offensive line and the Jets can't rush the passer. House, this is where you mentioned that the longer a team stays winless, the stupider it is to bet against them.
1:41:22 Speaker 06 Yeah. And, and part of the thing that concerns me, here, here, here are the concerns. The Jets have zero forced turnovers. They, they have no interceptions and no recovered fumbles.
1:41:33 Bill Simmons? So they do. London games always have turnovers.
1:41:37 Speaker 06 The other thing that scares me is, is that big of a number when the total is low. The total's 43 and a half. You wouldn't, you need to win by a touchdown in a game that's not expecting many points. I don't have any problem with the idea of Denver winning the football game, but I, the, the, the Jets keep beating themselves by beating themselves. They don't force any turnovers. They commit a shit ton of penalties. They are undisciplined. They make bad mistakes on special teams, but the penalties and the special teams things, if they get it right, one week, somehow, if you look at the success rates for the Jets, they are a top 10 team by, by, by the success measurement on both sides of the ball.
1:42:21 Bill Simmons? Comes with like, they're doing their best work when they're down 20 in the last hour of the game.
1:42:26 Speaker 06 No, it's, it's two things. Their first two drives of every game have been outstanding. They have a script for the first two drives, the Jets. And then to your point, which is very astute, at the end of games, they just rack up all this efficiency because they're, they're, they are not.
1:42:42 Bill Simmons? You watch that game, like when, when Hall fumbled, all of a sudden the game was over. Like all of a sudden the Cowboys had scored a bunch of points, right? And then it was like, oh, I can take this off the multiview.
1:42:54 Speaker 05 And keep in mind, keep, let me just give a little point of reference here. Dallas had four offensive linemen out, four.
1:43:06 Bill Simmons? Right.
1:43:06 Speaker 05 There's only five on the offensive line. Four of them were out.
1:43:11 Bill Simmons? Didn't even matter.
1:43:12 Speaker 05 They, their best player is C.D. Lamb. He was out. Maybe their second best weapon is Kavante Turpin. He was out.
1:43:21 Bill Simmons? And Micah Parsons was out because they fucking traded him.
1:43:23 Speaker 05 And they were up 30 to three.
1:43:27 Bill Simmons? That is crazy.
1:43:28 Speaker 06 Let me ask this.
1:43:29 Bill Simmons? Come on.
1:43:29 Speaker 06 Let me ask.
1:43:29 Speaker 05 Well, I have no respect for that.
1:43:31 Bill Simmons? One more thing on this.
1:43:32 Speaker 06 Go ahead.
1:43:33 Bill Simmons? Fields 0 and 26 when the other team scores 21 points. Can the Broncos just get the 21 points? Because we could also money line parlay them with somebody else.
1:43:41 Speaker 06 Yeah, so I, I am willing to play Denver on, on the money line. What do you think about the fact that the look ahead line, the, the line this summer was six and a half? And we're saying that this game right now, having seen, you know, five weeks of football, is also just right there at six and a half.
1:43:59 Bill Simmons? There's two things to that. One is, as Vernon pointed out so eloquently, Denver is still underrated. It's a three and two team that should be like four and a half and a half if you were going to redo the record. And then the Jets, these dumb metrics make it seem like they're better than they are.
1:44:14 Bill Simmons? I think the Jets are also terrible. I like that pick, Vernon. We're going to add it to the pile.
1:44:18 Speaker 05 I mean, if I talk to you into getting a London game, because look, that way you're either like super happy by the time the other game comes.
1:44:26 Bill Simmons? How's it going to be together on Sunday? We can, we can let's just pick me terrible together.
1:44:30 Speaker 05 So I happen to be in Arizona on Sunday when the ga, when the game started. I mean, I don't know how you, this is unbelievable. I woke up because of my body clock. I woke up at 6:25 and five minutes later, the freaking football game started. I was like, people watch football at 6:30 out here? This is crazy.
1:44:52 Bill Simmons? I put it on, I woke up and put it on in, in my bedroom and I was like, I thought I would get away with watching the first quarter. And my wife was like, ah, get that off.
1:45:03 Bill Simmons? To wake up, go downstairs.
1:45:04 Speaker 05 She was talking about the TV.
1:45:05 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:45:06 Speaker 05 Okay.
1:45:13 Bill Simmons? House, what's your favorite pick this week?
1:45:15 Speaker 06 Uh, hold on, let me look real quick.
1:45:17 Bill Simmons? One that we didn't mention.
1:45:19 Speaker 06 Chiefs, Chiefs, going back to the Chiefs, going back to the Chiefs.
1:45:24 Bill Simmons? House, I changed our tactics this week. I didn't text you any picks.
1:45:28 Speaker 06 True story, you did not.
1:45:29 Bill Simmons? And I kept the, there was five that I liked. The top one on the list was Chiefs minus two now against the Lions.
1:45:36 Speaker 06 Great.
1:45:36 Bill Simmons? This is like a miracle, this line. First of all, Vernon, are the Chiefs really gonna go two and four? Would the league ever let that happen in a million years? No. KC Ja's wasn't the dumbest loss of the season, but it was in the top three. What an insane loss.
1:45:56 Speaker 06 The guy fell down.
1:45:57 Bill Simmons? Guy fell down on the game winning touchdown. Mahomes threw a 99 yard pick six on a throw that, I don't know, five QBs in the league would be stupid enough to make. He got completely rope a dope by the Ja's linebacker. I'm gonna make a prediction, guys. I think KC will be six and three heading into week 11 at Denver.
1:46:19 Bill Simmons? I don't think they lose again.
1:46:20 Speaker 05 I mean, Detroit has done nothing wrong since that first game.
1:46:25 Bill Simmons? All right, but they beat, I got it. They beat Chicago, they beat the zombie Ravens, they beat Cleveland, a team that immediately traded the quarterback who started the game. To the next team, they beat Cincy who traded for the shitty quarterback that started the Cleveland game. So those are their four wins.
1:46:41 Speaker 05 I got it, but that, that at Ravens was, come on, that's a great one.
1:46:45 Speaker 06 It was impressive. They had a good defensive game plan. They had a nice spy on Lamar and it was very effective.
1:46:52 Bill Simmons? And the Ravens defense is terrible. Lions have a bunch of OL and DB injuries. And then the Lions.
1:46:59 Speaker 06 That's the part that, that makes it appealing to me.
1:47:01 Bill Simmons? Bad, bad, bad, bad shape.
1:47:03 Speaker 05 And it's also, it's like Mahomes, I mean, good, under a field goal.
1:47:06 Speaker 06 Right. Yeah. Do you know what that against the spread record is? I'll tell you if you don't know.
1:47:10 Speaker 05 At home?
1:47:11 Speaker 06 Yeah. No, just in general.
1:47:12 Bill Simmons? Oh, what is it?
1:47:13 Speaker 06 Any, any Mahomes at less than a field goal, 19 and three against the spread.
1:47:18 Speaker 05 Wow. Oh, my God.
1:47:20 Bill Simmons? The Lions have this game this week and then Tampa the next week.
1:47:25 Bill Simmons? Then they go mini in Washington and Philly. We're going to find out if the Lions are actually what's going on with them. All right. So I like the Chiefs. The next one I like ironically, because Bruno already half made the case about how bad the Cowboys were and the Jets lost to them. So that means they must be really, really bad. I don't think the Cowboys are very good, even though I think the quarterback's been good this year. Panthers plus three.
1:47:48 Speaker 05 Oh, come on.
1:47:49 Bill Simmons? Panthers plus three.
1:47:50 Speaker 05 Panthers?
1:47:52 Bill Simmons? Panthers plus three against Dallas. Chris Vernon Panthers frisky at home.
1:47:57 Speaker 05 Stop.
1:47:58 Bill Simmons? For almost the last year.
1:48:00 Speaker 05 It's a, what's it there? Rico Dowdell revenge?
1:48:03 Bill Simmons? That's, I didn't think of that. That's, it could be a little Rico Dowdell revenge.
1:48:07 Speaker 05 He had 200 yards last week, I saw.
1:48:09 Bill Simmons? Last five home games last year for Carolina, they went two and three, but they covered four of them, including against KC and Tampa. They're two and O at home this year. It's going to be 75 degrees and balmy in Carolina. Dallas, like they have to play with the air conditioning on and their stupid dome. There's some fun Cowboys Panthers history, Bruno, that's not favorable to Cowboys. And Dallas's defense is awful and you have a shitload of injuries all over the place, including on your offensive line. I just like the spot for Carolina. I like the plus three. I think it's a field goal game. I think they could win.
1:48:43 Speaker 05 I bet it's a shootout.
1:48:45 Bill Simmons? I like that.
1:48:45 Speaker 05 I think it could be. I bet it, I bet it's a shootout. And I mean, who's, who's offensive repertoire do you like better? So, I mean, they, these are the kind of games the Cowboys are going to play in same way they did against the Giants, same way they did, you know, I mean, they're gonna, they can't stop anybody. That's again, that's why the Jets are so horrible. That's the only team that could, they, they could stop somehow. So, uh,
1:49:11 Speaker 05 I think if, if, if you believe in Carolina, I mean, I think what's a, I think the over under is, yeah, it's, I mean, it's almost 50 for God's sakes. So you're just going back and forth. Cowboys offense is unbelievable. Their defense is terrible. That leads to these fun, you know, super high scoring games and you might be right. Like, I mean, it might be 38, you know, might be 38, 35, somebody. But I'd imagine it turns into a shootout. That's what I'd guess.
1:49:38 Bill Simmons? So it was when we Lions locked that when we sent these out this morning, house, it was plus three.
1:49:46 Bill Simmons? And now it's a minus two and a half, but we get it at plus three house.
1:49:49 Speaker 06 Hmm.
1:49:50 Bill Simmons? What it, what's your take? Let's hear it.
1:49:52 Speaker 06 Yeah, I mean, I, I, Carolina hasn't lost at home.
1:49:58 Speaker 06 You know, their, their offense with Canales, he simplified things for, for Bryce Young and we're starting to see him move out of the pocket and feel comfortable. And he's, you know, if you want to be real glass half full about it with Carolina, you'd say he's seeing the field better.
1:50:16 Bill Simmons? Jalen Coker might come back. Fully cross, fully crosses zone.
1:50:20 Speaker 05 But you guys say this like, oh, they haven't lost at home, but I mean, they played Atlanta and Miami.
1:50:26 Speaker 06 Miami is a real football team.
1:50:28 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:50:28 Speaker 05 Your team, your team. Your team beat them by 30, Bill.
1:50:32 Bill Simmons? I know, but here's the thing about that game.
1:50:35 Bill Simmons? They, they played really well, the Panthers for the first quarter. No, listen, for the first quarter and a half of that game, they kind of controlled the game and we were like, what's going on? And then touchdown kick return and the wheels kind of came off, they fell apart. But I, I don't know. I, I watched that Atlanta game. They killed house and I in week three. That was our worst pick of the year. They just, you know, dominate Atlanta. I thought they were pretty good last week.
1:51:02 Bill Simmons? So that's one Falcons. We mentioned them Falcons plus four and a half against Buffalo. This is our last week to bet against Buffalo before they get the suspended defensive line guys back and Ed Oliver.
1:51:15 Bill Simmons? They're 28th against the rush. The Falcons, there's some really good defensive metrics.
1:51:18 Speaker 05 No, you just talked about Atlanta burning you.
1:51:21 Bill Simmons? And it's in Atlanta and it's in Atlanta.
1:51:23 Speaker 06 You can only bet Atlanta at home.
1:51:25 Bill Simmons? You can only bet on them in Atlanta.
1:51:26 Speaker 06 On the road. That's the important thing.
1:51:27 Bill Simmons? Bet on them on the road.
1:51:28 Speaker 05 I don't think you can bet Atlanta at all.
1:51:31 Bill Simmons? House, what are your thoughts?
1:51:33 Speaker 05 There's a better choice. Come on, there's better choices than Atlanta.
1:51:36 Bill Simmons? There's really not. It's not, it's pretty weak, weak.
1:51:38 Speaker 06 I, I like Atlanta. I like this spot for them. I like.
1:51:43 Speaker 05 You guys brought me on because you lose. Come on, I'm trying to talk you out of this stuff.
1:51:47 Bill Simmons? We already gave you a pick.
1:51:50 Speaker 05 I mean, you want to know why you lose? Could you pick the fucking Falcons? They're plus four and a half at home. And then you and then you go to bed at night. They're like, oh, my God, I can't believe we lost. We had the Falcons and the Panthers. We took the Chiefs.
1:52:02 Bill Simmons? We took the three time champion Chiefs.
1:52:04 Speaker 05 I got it. Just stick with the good teams. These teams stink. Carolina and Atlanta.
1:52:10 Speaker 06 You get the problem is who are the good teams? You tell me who the good teams are. The problem is who are the good teams?
1:52:16 Speaker 05 Yeah, cause.
1:52:16 Speaker 06 In the NF. Chiefs were a good team and then Jacksonville went down the field.
1:52:20 Bill Simmons? We crossed off Seahawks, Ja's, Niners, Bucks.
1:52:24 Speaker 05 The Bills are good.
1:52:25 Bill Simmons? In Washington.
1:52:26 Speaker 05 The Broncos are good. The Chargers are good. The Kansas City Chiefs are good.
1:52:30 Bill Simmons? We took two of those teams.
1:52:32 Speaker 05 All right. And then, uh.
1:52:34 Bill Simmons? I'll say this, especially after watching the Bills pretty carefully and having, uh, been involved in a couple of their games from a gambling standpoint. They have not played a good start to finish game yet.
1:52:47 Bill Simmons? I don't think they have like a killer weapon other than Cook, who the Patriots took out. I don't know. We'll see if the Falcons can take them out. But I, I don't know. The Pats were able to move the ball up and down on them and it was a Sunday night spot with a young QB. And Remandre with like another murderous fumble in that game and they kind of hung around, hung around. And then when they really needed to, they moved the ball on them. And I just, the Falcons are going to be able to do it at home.
1:53:14 Speaker 05 All right.
1:53:15 Bill Simmons? I have it marked down. House, you agree? Falcons plus four and a half?
1:53:18 Speaker 06 Yeah, it's one of my favorite ones. So, you know, take that.
1:53:24 Bill Simmons? Last one.
1:53:24 Speaker 05 It's Monday night football and you're going to bet Michael Pennix over Josh Allen. Okay.
1:53:30 Bill Simmons? I mean, that's.
1:53:30 Speaker 06 It's just the number.
1:53:31 Bill Simmons? Is that a FanDuel alert? Do they remind us that we're about to do that?
1:53:37 Speaker 06 Get the buzzer.
1:53:38 Speaker 05 Well, that was, trust me, this text, when you guys are down 14, nothing, five minutes into the game, I cannot wait to fire this off. Michael Pennix, you did it.
1:53:50 Bill Simmons? Last one is Pat Saints. A possible on paper trap game for the Pats at minus three and a half.
1:53:56 Speaker 05 Oh, don't pour about this. The Saints are pitiful.
1:54:00 Bill Simmons? Well, here's, so Camaro.
1:54:02 Speaker 05 What?
1:54:03 Speaker 06 I don't think they are.
1:54:04 Speaker 05 Spencer Rattler.
1:54:06 Speaker 06 Look at they're against the spread record. They've only gotten blown out by, in one game.
1:54:10 Bill Simmons? Vernon, they, they do hang around. That's why that, that hook is, is tough. Here's the thing. The Saints against Buffalo, they ran for 34 for 189 and against the Giants 34 88, but they were able to kind of control the game. Against Seattle, they were 27 rushes for 79 yards. I think that's what the Pats are going to do though. I don't think they're going to be running on the Pats. The Pats run defense has been excellent. Like they're fourth with rushing yards, but every team has tried to test them and nobody's been able to run on them, which means Spencer Rattler is going to have to beat them.
1:54:44 Speaker 06 Yep.
1:54:46 Bill Simmons? And I just don't think he will.
1:54:47 Speaker 05 It is in New Orleans.
1:54:49 Speaker 06 The most important thing for New England is Gonzalez.
1:54:55 Bill Simmons? Who they kind of held out of, they were a little easy with them in practice.
1:55:00 Speaker 05 Hey, how much do, how much do Patriots fans travel?
1:55:05 Bill Simmons? A lot? For, I don't know, for a regular season game.
1:55:07 Speaker 05 I will tell you this, and I don't know how big the brand got nationally.
1:55:12 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
1:55:13 Speaker 05 But my producer here, Roser, went down, he's a 49er fan. He went down to that 49er Saints game earlier this year. He said it was 80 20 49er fans.
1:55:23 Bill Simmons? Wow.
1:55:24 Speaker 05 In New Orleans.
1:55:25 Bill Simmons? I think we'll get some.
1:55:27 Speaker 05 And so I just wonder, I wonder how many Patriots fans will be in there because I mean, they're filling out a stadium up with road fans.
1:55:34 Bill Simmons? Well, one of those.
1:55:34 Speaker 05 I don't know. I don't know. It used to be you play in New Orleans and it was like, you know, obviously a very serious home field advantage and that's just not so anymore.
1:55:43 Bill Simmons? Well, you can make it a weekend too. So House, House and I lost a bet last week because we did a parlay that included the Eagles money line. And what we should have done is made the Eagles money line Eagles plus one and a half because under the rules of Ringer 107, you can do a parlay up to minus 120. House, we can do Pats plus one and a half for this with the Colts money line.
1:56:07 Speaker 06 Fine.
1:56:09 Bill Simmons? And that is minus 120 and that could be our parlay this week.
1:56:13 Speaker 06 I want to say out loud, I'm also perfectly fine with just laying it with the Colts. You know.
1:56:18 Speaker 05 Can we do this? Can we do this?
1:56:20 Bill Simmons? Well, this could be our, this could be our last pick if you want to do it.
1:56:23 Speaker 05 Don't rub this in house. We can't.
1:56:25 Speaker 06 What do you mean?
1:56:27 Speaker 05 I mean, this has been the death of me. Me and House, in the interest of full disclosure, me and House are in a league together, a Skins league, where we have to pick teams wins and losses. So we have six teams. One of our great picks for this season was Colts losses and it has been the bane of my existence watching this team.
1:56:48 Bill Simmons? They're like, they're like legitimately good. I think, I mean, they should be 5-0 or could be 5-0.
1:56:53 Speaker 05 Battle out Jacks and go for the frigging division.
1:56:56 Speaker 06 It worked out.
1:56:57 Speaker 05 Yeah.
1:56:57 Speaker 06 They should have lost to Denver.
1:56:58 Bill Simmons? Yeah, you're right. They should have lost that. So 4-1 is the red record. You're right, House. Well, the Cardinals who had the worst loss of the year and then their coach, their coach got fined for pushing his player to the sidelines.
1:57:14 Speaker 05 P.S. Me and House have Cardinals wins.
1:57:16 Speaker 06 Yeah, that's the other, yeah, think about that.
1:57:20 Speaker 05 That's why I said, as soon as you mentioned this game, I'm like, House, this is gonna beat us both ways.
1:57:25 Bill Simmons? So, and then Kyler Murray's might be a little bit hurt, maybe. This line seems a little high to me because it's a, it's a little bit of a desperation game for Arizona coming off that awful loss to Tennessee, but I like the idea of, Colts money line with the Pats plus one and a half.
1:57:43 Speaker 05 How did the Cardinals?
1:57:44 Bill Simmons? Together.
1:57:45 Speaker 05 How did the Cardinals respond to their coach punching one of their teammates?
1:57:49 Bill Simmons? It seemed like a punch. It was like a hard shove borderline, you know?
1:57:54 Speaker 05 Unbelievable.
1:57:55 Speaker 06 We said on the, the Wednesday gambling show that they need a tent on the sidelines for the, for the coaches to take the players. The ass whipping tent.
1:58:02 Bill Simmons? Beat them up?
1:58:03 Speaker 06 You have the blue tent for injuries. What color should the ass whipping tent be?
1:58:07 Bill Simmons? Like a dark purple?
1:58:08 Speaker 06 I got a purple tent, the purple like a bruise.
1:58:11 Speaker 05 I gotta tell you guys, this was kinda interesting. This past week, I told you I was in Arizona, so we were in Phoenix and the last time I had been in Phoenix, there were, it was Suns stuff everywhere, everywhere. This after they had gotten Durant, right? And it was like Durant and Booker and Beal and just like omnipresent Suns stuff everywhere. I, they're like this time when I went. There were Cardinals things everywhere. I thought it was so strange. I know it's football season, but again, I was there during football season the last time, like, and people like walking around were wearing like Cardinal stuff and like you would go into stores and it was like Kyler Murray jerseys and Marvin Harrison Jr. Jerseys and, and James Connor
1:58:55 Speaker 05 jerseys and whoever. It was just very odd. Like I always have this keen awareness of when I go to these different cities, like, you know, how, how, how long does it take before I know that you've got a big time basketball team? And the answer was two seconds. And I just wonder, like, I mean, I guess Booker's the only thing left and whatever with, with that, with that Suns team.
1:59:16 Bill Simmons? I don't think the Suns owner has helped.
1:59:18 Speaker 05 It's so crazy how much that has switched and it's so crazy that he has turned out to be what he has been. I thought he was great on your pod. Like when he first got that job, you remember you had him on?
1:59:29 Bill Simmons? He was really good.
1:59:30 Speaker 05 And I was like, man, this guy seems like the kind of owner you'd want. He's been terrible.
1:59:35 Bill Simmons? And then he did 29 terrible things.
1:59:38 Speaker 05 And he hired their GM who was a guy that I covered when Memphis played South Florida in the American, he got fired from South Georgia Tech and South Florida. He's a college basketball coach and he's now the GM of the Suns. It's all so strange.
1:59:56 Bill Simmons? So for Ringer 107, let me test drive this. We do KC minus two and a half, Panthers plus three.
2:00:02 Speaker 05 Oh God.
2:00:04 Bill Simmons? Broncos minus six and a half, Falcons plus four and a half, and then a little parlay of Colts money line with Pats plus one and a half. How does that sound in the, in the vicinity for you? Or is there somebody else we're missing?
2:00:18 Speaker 06 No, I think it's in the vicinity. I mean, I, I really think that the Steelers are gonna take care of business against the Browns, but.
2:00:27 Bill Simmons? I can't do it because I'm too afraid of that Browns defense against a team. Did you see that stat, Aaron Rodgers?
2:00:34 Speaker 06 We, we.
2:00:34 Bill Simmons? Just confirm what we talked about where he's got the least amount of distance of every pass. It's like he averages four yards of distance per passes.
2:00:43 Speaker 06 That's not an indictment. That's the game plan. That's how they beat Minnesota.
2:00:47 Bill Simmons? I get it. But the Browns have a good defense.
2:00:49 Speaker 06 So Minnesota allegedly did as well. They couldn't put any pressure on him.
2:00:53 Bill Simmons? They're missing Van Gengel and Cashman though.
2:00:54 Speaker 06 They couldn't put any pressure on him.
2:00:56 Bill Simmons? They're missing two like real guys.
2:00:56 Speaker 06 It was supposed to be the Minnesota blitz that, that flustered Pittsburgh. Abroad and it flustered nobody.
2:01:05 Bill Simmons? I like that Judkins.
2:01:07 Speaker 06 He did. He did his thing.
2:01:10 Bill Simmons? Severno, you good with that five?
2:01:12 Speaker 06 No.
2:01:13 Bill Simmons? But what do you want to replace? You want to take out the Falcons and put the Steelers against the Browns?
2:01:18 Speaker 06 He doesn't want the Panthers in there. I'm telling you right now, he does not want the Falcons. That's just because you're a Cowboys fan.
2:01:24 Speaker 05 Or the Falcons. I want either of those teams. Those teams stink.
2:01:29 Bill Simmons? Listen, we gave you a pick. You should be happy you got to pick a Ringer 107 pick.
2:01:33 Speaker 05 I'm in. Look, my whole reputation rides on the Broncos.
2:01:40 Bill Simmons? You get to come back again to do it.
2:01:43 Speaker 05 And then, hey, I promise you, bring me back next week and I'll pick against the Jets. I'm riding this thing. They are awful.
2:01:51 Bill Simmons? Today's Ringer 107 is brought to you by FanDuel and here's what we're doing for week six. We're 10 and 15 for the year. You know what, House? I still, I'm okay with the, I just think we've had incredible bad luck. There's seven games where a team blew it near the end and it went through the other thing. We should at least go like two and five in those, not 0-7.
2:02:14 Speaker 05 Didn't we just discuss this when we gave the Nuggets credit? For acknowledging, you know what? It's not bad luck. We've got to change things up.
2:02:26 Bill Simmons? I like our process.
2:02:27 Speaker 05 Betting on bad teams.
2:02:29 Bill Simmons? There's only so many teams to bet on.
2:02:32 Speaker 06 Last week, we lost on the Chiefs and the Eagles. Are those bad teams?
2:02:37 Speaker 05 Well, the Broncos are good.
2:02:38 Bill Simmons? Are the Seahawks a bad team? We picked them too and they lost.
2:02:41 Speaker 06 It was Bo Nix on the road, Bruno.
2:02:43 Speaker 05 I got you, but the Broncos are good.
2:02:45 Bill Simmons? We're 17 to three with the alleged awesome running attack.
2:02:49 Speaker 05 No.
2:02:51 Bill Simmons? Week six picks. Chiefs minus two and a half over the Lions.
2:02:57 Bill Simmons? Come on, Kansas City. Really? You're gonna go 2 and 4 heading into week 7? Just take care of business. Lions are banged up on the O-line and the D-backs. Panthers plus 3 over Vernos Cowboys. You tried to get us not to do this 10 minutes before you tried to get us not to do this. You talked about how bad the Dallas Cowboys were and how many injuries they've had. Panthers at home, hot, humid. Broncos minus 6 and 1/2 against the Jets in London. This is Vernos Pick.
2:03:25 Speaker 05 Yeah, by the way, it's so unfair because yes, I was talking about how my team's not that good, but I wasn't sitting there telling you the Panthers are. Panthers are terrible, too. Your team beat that team by 30, Bill. That happened. I don't care if you say they controlled the game for the first 10 minutes. They stink.
2:03:43 Bill Simmons? Panthers plus 3, Broncos minus 6 and 1/2 in London. We're going back to the overseas house. We're 0-2 in the overseas.
2:03:50 Speaker 06 We're gonna wake up Sunday morning and wait to, Bruno, if we wake up.
2:03:56 Speaker 05 When I tell you my ringer's off, you have no idea.
2:04:01 Bill Simmons? Falcons plus 4 and 1/2 at home against Buffalo. Vernon tried to throw his body in front of this. How said I like betting the Falcons at home? We'll never bet on them on the road again, but at home? Kinda like it. And then last but not least, a little parlay. Colts money line against Arizona, maybe not with Kyler Murray, with the Patriots. Move to plus 1 and 1/2 in New Orleans. Room for like the stupidest loss ever, but maybe they lose by 1. We have a little room. That is minus 120 on FanDuel and those are gonna be.
2:04:34 Speaker 05 I tell you this, they said what, that Murray didn't practice yesterday, right? Isn't that right? Then it could, you gotta watch out, Bill. Could be Jacoby present revenge game.
2:04:45 Bill Simmons? I watched Jacoby. I watched Jacoby last year. We're fine. Today's Ringer 107 brought to you by FanDuel. Odds subject to change.
2:04:56 Bill Simmons? Verno.
2:04:57 Speaker 05 We're fine, we're fine.
2:04:58 Bill Simmons? The mismatch with you and Dave Jacoby twice a week.
2:05:01 Speaker 05 Yup.
2:05:01 Bill Simmons? On the Ringer Podcast Network. Joe House, we can find you on the Ringer Gambling Show. We can find you on Fairway. Rollin'. Um, and we'll find you next week because we're doing over unders next week. We are doing that thing.
2:05:17 Speaker 05 I heard Zach Lowe saying he's going to be on there. Is that right?
2:05:19 Bill Simmons? Yeah, then we're going to little Zach Lowe next week.
2:05:21 Speaker 05 Let's go.
2:05:24 Bill Simmons? Did you win or lose money on golf this year?
2:05:27 Speaker 05 Uh.
2:05:32 Speaker 05 I mean, lost. I mean, I think if you probably check my account, it's probably a lot. I probably lost. Um, I, I don't know if I hit any of the big tournaments. I think, uh, I caught a couple of the after day two. Scotty Scheffler got good odds. Like, you know what I mean? I got, you know, I got on that streak where it was like, he opened up at plus, you know, 150 for the tournament. And it was a lot like Tiger back in the day. And then by, you know, by the time you're going into moving day, he, you could catch him at plus 400. And so I won some of those. Um.
2:06:08 Bill Simmons? Do you know House won over $150,000 on Europe in the Ryder Cup? That's not true. All numbers approximate? I wouldn't be sitting here.
2:06:18 Speaker 05 He told me, I, I, I, I texted, this is how you know we're bad. I text him something about it. It had to do with this Skins League that we're in together.
2:06:29 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
2:06:30 Speaker 05 And, oh, no, no, I take that back. I text him about the Ryder Cup. And I was like, oh my God, what a disaster. Okay. About what it was.
2:06:42 Bill Simmons? Right.
2:06:43 Speaker 05 And he.
2:06:43 Bill Simmons? House didn't feel that way.
2:06:45 Speaker 05 No, no, he texts back about our Skins League. And it was like, yeah, we should have never taken the Cardinals or whoever we have in the thing. And I was like, I'm talking about the Ryder Cup. And he's like, I bet on Europe. I was like, you, what, you communist? What are we doing?
2:07:01 Speaker 06 Just making money.
2:07:02 Speaker 05 What are we doing?
2:07:03 Speaker 06 Just making money, buddy.
2:07:04 Speaker 05 That's unbelievable.
2:07:06 Speaker 06 That's all.
2:07:07 Speaker 05 Unbelievable.
2:07:08 Bill Simmons? Listen, how should I bet on the Argentina in the 2004 Olympics was our greatest one?
2:07:13 Speaker 06 No regrets.
2:07:14 Bill Simmons? Oh. Yeah, we were so mad at the roster and Team USA put together that we put a giant 10 to 1 Argentina bet on and cashed it in.
2:07:22 Speaker 06 Yes, sir.
2:07:23 Bill Simmons? And it was beautiful. It was great.
2:07:25 Speaker 05 You guys are wearing, you're wearing baby blue?
2:07:28 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
2:07:28 Speaker 05 For Argentina?
2:07:29 Bill Simmons? It was fine.
2:07:30 Speaker 05 Unbelievable.
2:07:31 Bill Simmons? Yeah, the real problem with the Ryder Cup, which I think we discussed on both of our pods house, is that Europe had most of the golfers that I like.
2:07:39 Speaker 05 How about this?
2:07:40 Bill Simmons? You really gotta work on that. Can we get some more fun American golfers, please?
2:07:45 Speaker 06 A lot of American golf fans preferred the, the Euro personalities to the US personalities. I mean, all due respect to the, to the Henley family and the English family, but like Harris English and Russell Henley, not putting butts in seats. Let's just, let's just put it that way. Not putting butts in seats.
2:08:03 Speaker 05 I mean, when they were listing off the, you know, cause they got the auto qualifiers. I was watching the golf channel right before the, you know, that week that it was about to get going and they were like, and here's the, you know, captains pick. So basically like the bench for Europe and they're like, John Rahm, Victor Hovland. I'm like, oh my God. What is going on here?
2:08:22 Speaker 06 That's right.
2:08:23 Speaker 05 It was just a, Matt Fitzpatrick. I was like, bro, it's all major winners.
2:08:27 Speaker 06 That's right.
2:08:28 Speaker 05 Crazy.
2:08:29 Bill Simmons? Verno, great to see you. Good luck with the Grizzlies season. House, I'll see you in LA this weekend. Thanks for coming on, fellas.
2:08:35 Speaker 05 Yep.
2:08:37 Bill Simmons? All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Kurt Goldsberry. Thanks to House and Verno as well. Thanks to Gahout and Eduardo as always. I'm going to be off all weekend until Sunday night with because talking about week six NFL and then for podcasts next week because we have a bunch of NBA stuff planned plus NFL. This is my favorite time of year. So enjoy the weekend. I will see you on Sunday.
2:09:15 Bill Simmons? Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 888-797777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts, or call 877-8HOPENY, or text HOPE NY in New York. This episode is brought to you by 7Up. Okay, this one's a case for conspiracy bill. Let's bring them in. Ever noticed lemon is everywhere, from lemon recipes to lemon-scented cleaning
2:09:57 Bill Simmons? supplies? And when it comes to lemon-lime sodas, why is lemon always first? There's a reason. A shadowy organization called the A Lemonade has been padding the stats, keeping big lemon in the lead for decades. But let me tell you something, the sip is about to be flipped. 7Up is fighting back, swapping lemon-lime for their new Lime Lemon Soda. Now lime comes first. 7Up, flip the sip. This episode is brought to you by Core Power Protein Shakes. You know how we always talk about the little things that separate great athletes? Post-workout recovery is a big factor. Core Power Protein Shakes help you keep going after your workout with high-quality protein to build muscle and electrolytes to help hydrate. It's all you need for your
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