Pod Insights The Bill Simmons Podcast The Kimmel Situation. Plus, "Can the Chiefs Really Go 0-3?" and More Week 3 Gambling Questions With Joe House About this episode The Ringer’s Bill Simmons reacts to ABC pulling Jimmy Kimmel off the air (2:23). Then, Joe House joins the pod to make their Ringer 107 picks before checking in on the Clippers drama and other NBA news (16:42).
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Joe House
Producers: Chia Hao Tat, Eduardo Ocampo, and Steve Ceruti
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Transcript 13,628 words · 5 speakers
Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
0:00 Speaker 00 I'm pro football Hall of Famer Brian Dawkins, and I lived for a long time with something I did not know the name of: major depressive disorder. I carried sadness and anger because I thought I could handle it alone, but I couldn't. Now I want to make sure others know that that support is out there. If you're experiencing similar symptoms, talk to a healthcare professional. Visit MDDAllies.com to watch my story.
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1:30 Bill Simmons? The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network, where I put up a new rewatchables on Monday night. We did Tin Cup. We have another one coming on Monday. I'll just tell you what it is. We did Airplane, and we did it with a special guest. So get ready for that on Monday. You can find Airplane pretty much all over the place. Not an easy, not an easy move to find, or not a hard move to find, but one of the great comedies of all time. And it's a really fun podcast. So we have that coming. Prestige TV, Episode 3 of Task, breaking that down on Sunday night with Joanna Robinson and Rob Mahoney as well. Coming up on this podcast, I'm going to talk about Jimmy Kimmel's situation at the top, and then Joe House and I are going to talk about the Week 3.
2:15 Bill Simmons? NFL slate. We're gonna take a break. We're gonna do Pearl Jam and then I'm gonna come back. It's the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel and the NFL is back and thank God. FanDuel has everything. They got an awesome app. They have SGPs. They have great futures. They have good prop bets, live betting, your way bets, clean app. It's great to use. Been using it for a few years. Every time I go back to Boston or any place that has FanDuel and I get to use it, I'm always excited. I'm on an airplane runway. You done the airplane runway?
2:47 Speaker 04 Yeah.
2:48 Bill Simmons? Airplane runway.
2:50 Speaker 04 There should be a button, the runway.
2:52 Bill Simmons? I'm on the airplane runway. I gotta get this in. Get your bets in, build something bold, make every game feel bigger. Download the FanDuel app or head to FanDuel.com/BS to get started. The Ringer committed to responsible gaming. Please visit RG-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of this episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com. Call 1-887-897-777 or visit CCPG.org/chat. Connecticut paid endorsement.
3:53 Bill Simmons? All right, I am recording this. It is Thursday night. I have been on duty the last 24 plus hours, wondering what was gonna happen. Jimmy Kimmel, who I have known since 2001, I worked for him for the first 18 months of his show, Jimmy Kimmel Live, which is still on the air and maybe not for much longer. We're gonna find out. We've been friends for 24 years, so you're probably not gonna be shocked to find out that I am on Jimmy Kimmel's side with most stuff. But I think this, the story, the way it was dissected, the way it unfolded this week and kind of what it means, big picture. I wanted to talk about that more than what happened. So it's a little different than the Stephen Colbert thing for a couple of reasons.
4:37 Bill Simmons? Colbert, I don't feel like was the face of CBS, whereas Jimmy was. Jimmy, his show has been on for over two decades. He hosts Who Wants to be a Millionaire on ABC. He hosts the Upfronts. He's been hosting those since the mid 2000s for them. He hosted the Oscars multiple times. And it's just, I don't even, like, when I was growing up and we had Battle of Network Stars and things like that in the 70s, like, each, each network had just all these different stars that you would associate with the network. And, you know, once you get to 2025, as, as they're making less and less TV shows, there's, there's more reality shows, there's more sports, all these things that, that kind
5:18 Bill Simmons? of make a network feel less vibrant, I guess, than, than a lot of the streamers. Jimmy is one of the few people that you would have associated with ABC. Colbert, his show is expensive. It wasn't as impactful on social media. And when it got canceled, or when they said they were canceling it next May, my reaction was, you know, like a lot of other people, like, ah, this is sinister, what's going on here? But it really does seem like they wanted just to get out of late night and the show was too expensive for them and the risk kind of exceeded the reward. And the reason I think that was because Paramount, the company that, you know, was in charge of this decision, after they got rid of Colbert, they doubled, they tripled down on South Park,
6:02 Bill Simmons? which is a show that's way more controversial, way more critical of, of the Trump administration and just pushes the envelope way harder than Colbert did. So, you know, when you look at the Jimmy situation, I just think he means more to ABC in a bunch of different ways, but if you compare it CBS versus ABC, it comes down to leverage and it comes down to power. Paramount, they're not canceling, canceling South Park because it's too important of a brand to them. It matters too much. They can't get rid of it. It drives too many subs. Trump knows that. The people that he's going to use to try to put pressure on stuff to get rid of programming or hosts or whoever.
6:43 Bill Simmons? He knows they're not going to get rid of South Park. But Colbert, there's a door open and you can kind of push through. So if he was responsible for that, who knows? But I just don't think Colbert had the same leverage. NBC, like it was interesting, Trump this week mentioned like Fallon and Seth are next. Well, Fallon and Seth are in a weak spot right now because late night television is in a completely different stratosphere than it was even 10 years ago.
7:10 Bill Simmons? Yeah, it's conceivable they would get rid of both of those shows and just show reruns or whatever. SNL is a different story and Trump's complained about SNL over and over and over again over the years, but NBC is never canceling it. There's no situation where they would be like, we are getting rid of this show that gets massive ratings. That's, you know, a huge live thing for us that does incredible stuff online. We would get a huge blowback for it and NBC is going to treat SNL a little differently than maybe they're going to treat the late night things. ABC and Kimmel, that was somewhere in the middle of those two worlds, the CBS and maybe SNL and NBC. But if the FCC can leverage some affiliates to get rid of it, then that becomes a different story.
7:54 Bill Simmons? And, and what we learned from all of this stuff was that the affiliates and these companies, there's this merger, you have Nextar merging with Tegna, two companies that I put zero thought in over the years, but apparently they want to merge. They need FCC approval. The FCC, the guy who runs it, pointed by Trump, I don't know, eight years ago, he sees an opportunity to leverage some stuff.
8:18 Bill Simmons? They need to approve the merger. So now you start leveraging and leveraging. And if you want to get rid of a show like Jimmy's show, this is the moment to do it. But what was interesting in Rolling Stone the next day, they had this tidbit. In the hours leading up to the decision to pull Kimmel, two sources familiar with the matter say senior executives at ABC, its owner Disney and affiliates convened emergency meetings to figure out how to minimize the damage. Multiple execs felt that Kimmel had not actually said anything over the line, which I agree with. The two sources say, but the threat of Trump administration retaliation.
8:56 Bill Simmons? And that's why this isn't cancel culture. This is censorship, which is a completely different situation. But this goes back to the leverage versus power thing. You know, initially, as this is unfolding, Jimmy's show isn't quite powerful enough for Disney for them to defend it the same way NBC would have defended Saturday Night Live in a similar circumstance, right? Trump knows this. Bob Iger knows this. There's only so far they're gonna go. And if it's gonna cost them affiliates and all of these issues, they're not gonna mess with it. But what changed over the last 24 plus hours is there was such a groundswell. This just felt like this became the moment. If we stand by and let something like this happen, what's next? Where do we go?
9:40 Bill Simmons? And, you know, I was, I grew up as a kid in the seventies, reading about McCarthyism, about the Smothers Brothers getting, uh, getting basically fired by CBS because they got challenged in the Vietnam War. Lenny Bruce, you know, the Woodward and Bernstein and the Washington Post challenging Nixon. And when you're a kid reading that stuff, especially going into the eighties, a lot of these people become heroes. And a lot of the, a lot of the stories of, of, that you read about them, you're like, man, those people really stuck to their guns. They stuck to their values. And fast forward to 2025, and nobody sticks up for anything. And everybody's afraid of everything at all times. It's just the reality of the situation. We don't need to go on why.
10:20 Bill Simmons? There was such a groundswell against Disney this week that I actually think this, I went from thinking there was no chance this show is gonna come back. And I, I just never, I thought Jimmy, rightfully so, was just gonna dig in and maybe that was gonna be it. But maybe this flips. Maybe, maybe what Disney is realizing is that at some point, you gotta stand for something. At some point, you gotta stand by a person who has been one of the best people you've had for 20 plus years, who all he's done has elevated your, your, your, your company, who has come through time and time again in all these different ways and is a face. Once you start losing your faces, you just don't have a soul anymore.
11:01 Bill Simmons? You're just, you're, you're just another place that's just pumping out content. You might as well be Pluto at that point. And I, I think maybe that's why there's a little hope with this. But again, it's Thursday night. I don't know how it's gonna play out. The bigger question for me. Why does Jimmy need ABC anymore? And I've not talked to him about this. You know, this is, I've been in this situation. I was in this situation 11 years ago and 10 years ago. And when your life and career blows up in one second and all these people are reaching out, it's, it's pretty overwhelming.
11:36 Bill Simmons? I don't know why he needs ABC. Howard Stern was in this position two decades ago and ended up with Sirius and probably has no regrets, right? He was just tired of dealing with the FCC. Goes to Sirius and has this whole second act. Conan gets out of the late night grind. Really got screwed over by The Tonight Show and Leno. Ends up at TBS. Becomes pretty irrelevant for somebody who's on TV every day and then just completely reinvents himself. And I think is now in an incredible position. Like I, I, I think he's really somebody I admire a lot, how he was able to reinvent everything he was doing. Joe Rogan is the biggest host we have of anything, right? Now technically, he, he licenses his podcast to Spotify,
12:21 Bill Simmons? but he's, he's his own thing. He does, he does what he wants and he has his own platform. And the point is you can create your own platform now. You don't need these big places that are going to get intimidated by, by whoever, FCC, the president. You can get your content out in whatever way you want. Like I remember when, when I was leaving ESPN 10 years ago and there was this perception, like, nobody could leave ESPN. You had to have ESPN or else you were just gonna wither and die, basically. And now 10 years later, that seems stupid. It seems stupid to me that anybody would think Jimmy's next act isn't going to be really good. And maybe, maybe it's a, maybe it's a point now with the show
13:06 Bill Simmons? that you're doing it because you did it for a long time, because you have 200 people working for it. Because, uh, you know, the night to night rhythm of it, you still feel like it matters. But if you don't think he's going to figure out another way to do content in an awesome way, like you just don't know the dude, because he will. He'll figure it out immediately and he's the most competitive person I know.
13:27 Bill Simmons? The biggest difference though. So this is, this is from the Lorne Michaels book. Lorne Michaels, who is very passionate over the years about how important SNL was just as a platform and rightfully so, because it's one of the most important shows that we've had on any platform for what it done for comedy and music and political satire, everything. But he had this story and he's told it a few times, but it's in the Lorne Michaels book about the Smothers Brothers and how five year, four or five years after the show got canceled, he went to their comeback show at the Troubadour and drunk John Lennon was in the audience and he was heckling them and calling them fuckers. And it was just
14:09 Bill Simmons? kind of a dark night and it was one of those nights that, that really affected Michaels because he was like, these guys were on the top of the world five years ago and they stuck up for what they believed in. And five years later, they don't have a TV show and they're getting heckled by drunk John Lennon. And it's like, Jesus. So this is what it said in the, in the book by Susan Morrison. Michaels was horrified and he thought about that evening many time, many times in the coming years, whenever he found himself in a difficult spot with the network, NBC. "I never got tempted by the idea of being a martyr," he said. "One of the things I taught myself is you have to stay on the air. It's not worth it to blow yourself up for principle in a community that will sell you out." He went
14:52 Bill Simmons? on, "I realized, okay, you can take it to the brink, but if you give up your power, you've done nobody any good." He knew he didn't want to end up like Tom and Dick Smothers. And I think that's totally justified and it was, it was a great way for Lorne Michaels to think for his entire time he had SNL because it was, he's correct. My point is in 2025, I don't know if you need to think that way anymore. The platform isn't ABC. It's not a late night show that Jimmy is lucky enough to host, even though he is lucky. He can still have that platform wherever he wants because he's the platform. And that's the difference in this. And that's why I don't think this is quite as scary and terrible
15:33 Bill Simmons? as maybe it felt this week. Um, yeah, we're gonna have censorship. Yeah. Um, stupid shit like this apparently is going to keep happening for the next three years. Yeah, it's, the discourse is the ugliest it's ever been. But I still feel like if, if somebody's good enough to have a platform, they can find it. So. I hope Jimmy show sticks around and I hope ABC sticks by him. And I think if they don't, I think it would be pretty cowardly. I don't think that's a crazy thing to say.
16:02 Bill Simmons? But if they don't stick by him and this is the end, I think he's gonna be fine. He'll find another platform somewhere and he'll figure out how to get all his content out in the right ways and I would not bet against that dude. So the situation sucked. I kind of can't believe it didn't happen. It had to be the lowest threshold ever for an overreaction like this. But ultimately, maybe the way everybody rallied around the show the last 24 hours and just rallied around the concept of free speech, maybe we needed it. So stay tuned. We're gonna take a break, talk football. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. FanDuel turning up the heat every Sunday with Power Hour, the ultimate live betting window where the action is wild and the reward's even better. Here's how it works.
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17:29 Bill Simmons? Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket, my friend. NFL Sundays are back. You won't want to miss the action. NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, another friend of mine, lets you catch every game every Sunday all in one place. And now, get NFL Sunday Ticket month to month. And cancel anytime. Head to youtube.com/BS and sign up now. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games excludes digital only games and commercial use. If you cancel YouTube TV, you will lose access to NFL Sunday Ticket. Terms of bargains, device and content restrictions apply. Commercial use excluded. Renews every month during the 2025 regular season. Cancel anytime.
18:13 Bill Simmons? All right, recording this on a Thursday. House, we did not decide to wait until after the Miami Buffalo game to see what happened because I didn't really feel like that would be worth it for either of us. Buffalo is a big favorite and I'll say something at the top for what happened in that game. How are you feeling about the slate? We're 4-6 and Ringer 107. I did okay gambling wise. You know, the Raiders didn't help me out on Monday night, but for the most part, a lot of favorites covering. We've had a lot of quarterbacks getting hurt already, including yours. And the Packers are the big winners for the juggernaut spot. The Colts are the big winners for the whoa, where these guys come from spot.
18:57 Bill Simmons? The Bears seem to be the giant disappointment team. And then the Chiefs are the question mark of is this the end of the era? Which storyline are you the most interested in?
19:08 Speaker 04 Honestly, the Chiefs because I think that they still have some chapters to write and I still trust Mahomes and Reid and we just need to see them with a healthy, competent receiving core. And it might be like a eureka kind of experience because we didn't see it really at all the entirety of last season when they went 15-2 and made it all the way to the Super Bowl.
19:32 Bill Simmons? I know, it might be one of those, it might be one of those tale of two cities seasons where like the first half of the year, they look awful and then all of a sudden by week 14, they're fine.
19:41 Speaker 04 They don't even really look awful. I mean, you know, the defense isn't as locked down as it was at the end of last season thus far, but they also played the Chargers and the Eagles who, you know, style wise, pretty tough teams.
19:54 Bill Simmons? Yeah, compared to the Colts who went 2-0, but the first one was against a Miami team that it feels like it's imploding. Then the second win was against the Broncos where they lost the game and then there was a leverage penalty and all of a sudden they did not lose the game.
20:09 Speaker 04 Both of those at home, both of those, Dan Dimes and Shane Steichen in their bag, catching the league by surprise a little bit. I mean, the Denver defense was the biggest disappointment in that game.
20:20 Bill Simmons? Yeah, the linebackers look a little slow, not getting stops. There's been some explosive plays.
20:26 Speaker 04 They went right at certain.
20:28 Bill Simmons? So week three trends. This is usually a great betting week and one that we've had success with over the years. You usually see the 0-2 teams as dogs usually do well. The division home dogs, they usually do well. It's, it's a good time to capitalize on some overreactions. But what's interesting is there's so much gambling data and analysis and everything that, that some of the games that I think 15 years ago would have just seemed like Colts minus four and a half over the Titans. It was like, oh, the Colts, then the Titans win in Tennessee. You're like, oh, my God, I can't believe it. Now we have our radar up for all of these and it's harder and harder to find the inefficiencies. But we're going to try, we're going to go through the slate.
21:13 Bill Simmons? I have the stay away group house, which includes the Chiefs, who you just mentioned. Chiefs, Giants, two 0-2 teams. It still feels like, I, I feel like the Chiefs are just getting two extra points just because they're the Chiefs. The slide should probably be three and a half.
21:30 Speaker 04 Yeah, and maybe we'd mess with if it, mess with it if it was in that range, but I don't want to try and gamble on the Chiefs winning by margin and six is margin. So I, I just don't.
21:42 Bill Simmons? Yeah, and I don't really want to take the Giants against the Chiefs. If the Chiefs were 2-0, I feel like this would be a live one. You'd be looking at this, go, oh, letdown game, Giants go up early. But I do the, you know, the Giants pass rush against a pretty shaky offensive line for the Chiefs, the lack of explosiveness for the Chiefs.
22:02 Speaker 04 Chiefs don't run the ball, can't run the ball. So I mean, they're going to need something from Kareem Hunt.
22:08 Bill Simmons? If I had to pick a side, I'd pick the Giants, but I'm not, I'm not touching that game. I'm not touching your game either. Washington's three and a half now over the Raiders. They were three when we locked in the 107 picks.
22:19 Speaker 04 Can't play it. Don't know anything about the quarterback. We'll know Sunday morning.
22:22 Bill Simmons? So after this, you're at Arizona, at Chargers. We don't have must wins in week three. But I don't know if you want to lose this one with those next two coming in a banged up quarterback.
22:33 Speaker 04 And well, can't lose this one because of the condition in which the Raiders arrive, which is off that tough Monday night football game. It was physical. The Chargers beat the hell out of them. Gino was was backpedaling and throwing to the wrong team all game long. So you gotta, you gotta get this one if you're Washington and have hopes on a repeat visit to the playoffs.
22:54 Bill Simmons? I do like the idea of zagging after a bad Gino game on the Raiders. So if I had to pick a side, I'd probably pick the Raiders, but a stay away for me. They, the big thing for the Raiders, I just thought Bowers looked like a different guy on Monday night. He's clearly hurt. He wasn't explosive. He was such like an X factor for them. The, the second half of last season and then in game one, then in game two, he just, he just wasn't the same. I thought that was a big reason why they looked like crap. Next one, that's a stay away Vikings Bengals Vikings by three.
23:26 Bill Simmons? Jake Browning versus Carson Wentz. I picked up Jake Browning in our Guillotine League. Some positive, some positive offensive stats with him.
23:35 Speaker 04 Congratulations.
23:36 Bill Simmons? Minnesota's 32nd in EPA for offense right now and, and
23:42 Bill Simmons? do you think J J McCarthy is actually hurt? If you had to at gunpoint, what do you think?
23:47 Speaker 04 Oh, that's a great one. You think he's going to have his hour long and they're gonna, he, he and Coach O'Connell, they're having their hour long in Coach O'Connell's office. They're back.
23:55 Bill Simmons? It's now a book club.
23:57 Speaker 04 Thursday afternoon, I have to go sit with, for my hour with coach and go through the playbook. I love this conspiracy action. Why is this a cross off for you? I'm curious.
24:07 Bill Simmons? It doesn't have to be. I just, two backup quarterbacks. I don't really want to back either than the Bengals. I don't feel better about their defense or their offensive line than I did two weeks ago. And I don't know what to make of Minnesota. I can't believe how bad their offense is.
24:21 Speaker 04 The three points is what is kind of capturing my, my fancy a little bit. Like if it was Minnesota, one and a half, just a standard home field advantage or two. It's the Minnesota, it's the Vikings at home. That's the home field advantage. But the Carson Wentz aspect to this. Is unbelievable to me. I, I watched him. He has no business being in the NFL in any capacity other than holding a clipboard and helping his guys, you know, maybe leading prayer circle after a game.
24:52 Bill Simmons? Oh, he could do a prayer circle.
24:54 Speaker 04 He could do prayer. He's gonna be doing prayer circle.
24:57 Bill Simmons? You just do, you gather everyone in and then you kneel and you say a prayer.
25:00 Speaker 04 At the end of the game.
25:01 Bill Simmons? Do that. Yeah.
25:02 Speaker 04 He definitely can do that. Um, anyway.
25:05 Bill Simmons? So you want to mark this? Should I put it in bold?
25:07 Speaker 04 Mark it for in the first minute. Just mark it for a minute. Cause it's not like the, the Vikings defense has exactly wowed us in, in the first couple of games.
25:18 Bill Simmons? Somehow the Bengals are two and O. And it feels like their season is over, but yet they're two and O and they're playing a team that could not move the ball against the Falcons last week is now on the Carson Went stage of, of at least for the next two weeks. And you're right. All right. I'll move it in there.
25:35 Speaker 04 Well, just, just for a second, I'm probably gonna dispense with this. I'm probably gonna say, what are we doing?
25:40 Bill Simmons? Well, what'd you get my wild, the foreplay?
25:44 Speaker 04 It's just, I wanted to see what it feels like.
25:46 Bill Simmons? Why'd you, why'd you plug, why'd you plug it in if you're not gonna use it?
25:51 Speaker 04 Um, one never knows.
25:52 Bill Simmons? Broncos Chargers. This is, uh, in LA. I think there are probably about 40,000 Denver fans here. Denver coming off just an awful loss. Uh, just awful loss for us too. It really hurt us in Ringer 107. This line was three and it dropped to two and a half. And when it dropped to two and a half, it became a no play for me. Um, I think these games, the Chargers looked really good against them last year. Chargers look really solid in general. Um, I thought Gino had a lot of throws, especially in that second half that he just sailed or, you know, I, I didn't think that Chargers defense was as good as it would look after the game. We were like, oh, they only give up nine points. I thought
26:36 Bill Simmons? there were guys open. Khalil Mack got hurt. Denver coming off really an ugly week one win and then an uglier week two loss. This feels borderline kitchen sinky for me. Do they want to go one and two, fall two behind the Chargers with the Chiefs looming as well? I ultimately a stay away for me, House.
26:58 Speaker 04 I really want to petty bet the Chargers.
27:01 Bill Simmons? Oh, like a spite bet?
27:02 Speaker 04 To punish the Broncos because the Broncos invented ways to lose that football game, invented ways to not cover that football game. They, they were at all three levels, self sabotaging, offense, defense and special teams. Well, let's just add another one. The coach, the dumbass coach who on the 60 yard field goal attempt with a rookie field goal kicker. Yeah, let's do, let's have the, the block on because we're, we're so concerned about this, this kid and these circumstance. Come on, man. What are we doing? And this is part of the thesis that, that, um, coming into the season, informed the confidence in the Broncos. We're all, we all have exposure to the Broncos because this combination, this, you know, Bo Nix in the second year.
27:46 Bill Simmons? It's our fault.
27:47 Speaker 04 He looks shaky as hell and Peyton is, is, is, you know, somebody buy that man a cup of coffee. So he can wake the F up and maybe he could share some of the play calling duties as well. But the late interception by, by Nix in that game, I, I just was wholly underwhelmed by the Broncos.
28:03 Bill Simmons? Dumb Dobbins penalty, dumb face mask penalty that sent them back, missed the field goal.
28:09 Speaker 04 They do big dumb things, big dummy things.
28:13 Bill Simmons? The Chargers might be good and I'm not willing to commit to it yet, but you know, and I'm not breaking any news with that statement, but they really might be good. They might be the third best team in the AFC. But I think this is the week we find out if they are or not.
28:26 Speaker 04 Okay, okay, okay.
28:27 Bill Simmons? I didn't like the way they finished that Raiders game at all. And I know it's a weird time, but yeah, they just.
28:33 Speaker 04 The fourth down call with the jet sweep. Come on, what are you doing? Run the effing football.
28:39 Bill Simmons? I'll tell you another thing. Not sure about Hampton. Who they spent a really high first round pick on. I think he was the 12th pick. I liked it a little more when Najee Harris was in there.
28:51 Speaker 04 Felt a little more, I mean, you know, Hampton did put the ball on the ground.
28:55 Bill Simmons? Najee Harris is healthy, right? Najee Harris is healthy, semi.
29:00 Speaker 04 Yeah.
29:00 Bill Simmons? Well, he had a little fireworks accident or whatever.
29:03 Speaker 04 No, no, I know.
29:04 Bill Simmons? Um, I would lean Broncos, but it's a stay away. Lions, Ravens.
29:10 Bill Simmons? I would rather, we're gonna get to a parlay portion of this. I'd rather talk about the Ravens in that section, but they're five and a half against Detroit. Detroit looked awesome last week. That was a, oh, Ben Johnson, we heard, we heard our name in the streets, kind of a, kind of an impact game. But I don't see their defense stopping the Ravens ever. Now, I don't know if this could be a shootout, but I'm a little more interested in the Ravens in a money parlay, which I would like to discuss to you in a later category.
29:37 Speaker 04 I will be all ears. I don't want to mess around with the Vegas zone number. Especially the Ravens, Van Noy is hurt, looks like he's out and Marlon Humphrey is questionable. Those guys matter to that Ravens defense. So I'm fine with, with being cautious.
29:57 Bill Simmons? Okay. Bears, Cowboys. You know, I kinda like the Bears. They're minus one and a half somehow against the Cowboys, who cannot defend anyone. They single-handedly rejuvenated Russell Wilson's career last week. The Bears looked, you know, obviously awful against Detroit and their defense sucks too. And this feels like it could be like a whoever has the ball last game. It's more meaningful for the Bears though, because they're 0-2. And they just got smacked by the Lions and this is a, our season is over if we can't beat this crappy Dallas team.
30:34 Speaker 04 So tell me one good thing about the Bears. Tell me one thing that you've seen that's good from the Chicago Bears.
30:40 Bill Simmons? That's why I have this in the stayaways.
30:43 Speaker 04 Well, here's the thing. We have one good thing from Dallas. That offense is cooking. I kinda love Dallas this week. I think, you know.
30:53 Bill Simmons? Is that one of your picks?
30:54 Speaker 04 It's sitting here right, right on the sidelines. I have, you know, I have my little book here. It's, it's, it's in the book.
30:59 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
31:00 Speaker 04 I do have a, I'll try and make the case, but let's see if we, maybe we'll have consensus on five. But I think this, the Cowboys are the side in that game. I mean, I don't, what proof is there that the, the Bears can score under any circumstances, even against this Dallas team? The Dallas team, even with Micah out, they, they have been able to manage like kind of reasonable pressure. They had, their, their, their pressure numbers are like in the middle.
31:29 Bill Simmons? And the Giants were.
31:29 Speaker 04 I'm just saying, it's not a joke.
31:31 Bill Simmons? Give up almost 40 points to the Giants. Seahawks, Saints.
31:37 Bill Simmons? It's up to seven and a half. It is a lit. Let's be careful out there. I'm not sure the Seahawks should be favored by that much against anybody. And I like the Seahawks. I like their defense. This seems to me like one of those where if you're gonna bet the Seahawks do an alt line like minus 14 and a half, bet on the blowout. In the old days, we would have teased the Seahawks against Spencer Radler with the 12th man.
32:01 Bill Simmons? I'm not ready to do that. And I also think the Saints are a little better than, you know, that we have that, we did that fourth place bet where we had the Saints and the Browns and the Dolphins and Tennessee and felt really good about that. And a big piece of that was Carolina being better than the Saints. And I'm not sure they are. And I think that's gonna be one where we're gonna have to hedge that one late in the season. Cause
32:22 Speaker 04 As we get down there, yeah.
32:24 Bill Simmons? They're not awful. They're not good.
32:27 Speaker 04 No.
32:28 Bill Simmons? They're not awful. Carolina is awful.
32:31 Speaker 04 They're awful, awful Carolina. I don't, I don't want anything to do with that Seattle Saints game.
32:37 Bill Simmons? Well, that's why I'm staying with. And then last but not least is Packers Browns in Cleveland. Packers, the sign is just suspiciously only at seven and a half, even though people think the Packers are the best team in the league. And the Browns, they played like two and three fourths, really good quarters against Baltimore. And then that game slipped away. And then the week before they should have won against, uh, who, who'd they play week one? I'm blanking.
33:02 Speaker 04 The Bengals. They should have beat the Bengals. Their, their field goal kicker kicked them out of the game.
33:08 Bill Simmons? Touchdown. Their defense might actually be good.
33:10 Speaker 04 It's good. It's a good defense.
33:13 Bill Simmons? So I wouldn't do this straight up. I would, I would consider a Packers in a parlay just to win.
33:20 Speaker 04 I want to be careful. I want, I think that Browns defense, they, they, they, it keeps them in the game. They, they just keep defeating with stupid turnovers and, you know, special team mistakes at the wrong time. They were in that game against the Ravens and they were, they should have won the game against the Bengals.
33:40 Bill Simmons? All right, we're gonna do, we'll talk about the possibles, but we're gonna take a quick break. This episode is brought to you by Carhartt. We spend a lot of time talking about football, the players, the coaches, the big plays, but there's a whole other team we rarely think about, the people who make the game possible. The workers building stadiums, paving parking lots, growing the grass, welding the goalposts, even making the footballs. They're committed to their craft and they're doing the work long before kickoff. Carhartt is proud to outfit those crews. So next time you're watching a game, take a second to appreciate the people behind it. Learn more at carhartt.com/jointhetrades.
34:14 Speaker 00 I'm pro football Hall of Famer Brian Dawkins, and I lived for a long time with something I did not know the name of: major depressive disorder. I carry sadness and anger because I thought I could handle it alone, but I couldn't. Now I want to make sure others know that that support is out there. If you're experiencing similar symptoms, talk to a healthcare professional. Visit mddallies.com to watch my story.
34:40 Speaker 01 Paid partnership with Johnson & Johnson. Brian Dawkins has not prescribed Caplyta lumateperone.
34:52 Speaker 02 I needed more from my antidepressant, so my doctor added Caplyta lumateperone, proven to provide greater relief from depression symptoms than an antidepressant alone, building on my progress without starting over. Caplyta is for adults with major depressive disorder when used with an antidepressant and is available by prescription only. Individual results may vary. In clinical trials, weight gain was not common.
35:12 Speaker 01 Elderly dementia patients have increased risk of death or stroke. Caplyta is not approved for dementia-related psychosis. Call your doctor about new or sudden mood changes, behaviors, or suicidal thoughts right away. Antidepressants may increase these risks. Report fever, confusion, stiff muscles, which may be life-threatening, or uncontrolled muscle movements, which may be permanent. High cholesterol and weight gain may occur, as can high blood sugar, which may be fatal. Monitoring is recommended. Common side effects are sleepiness, dizziness, nausea, dry mouth, feeling tired, and diarrhea. These aren't all the side effects.
35:39 Speaker 02 Ask your doctor about Caplyta. Learn more at caplyta.com or call 888-252-4824.
35:45 Bill Simmons? Now it's time for a special part of today's episode. It's brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday Ticket has awesome features to help you stay on top of all the action like live multi-view, where you can watch up to four games at once, something I do every Sunday. You can also track your favorite teams and players with stats and fantasy view. Keeping up with your fantasy league has never, ever been so easy. Device and content restrictions apply. My favorite thing, I like picking the four games that I'm going to watch, especially in the early slate. And trying to learn as much about the teams as I possibly can, but when you get closer to halftime, one of the games goes into halftime, all of a sudden you can pop another one in there. Maybe third, third, early, fourth quarter, one of the games is a blowout, shove another one in there. You don't have to miss a minute of the action.
36:30 Bill Simmons? You can watch every game, every Sunday, all in one place with NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. You can track your fantasy league players like a champ. You can even in the multi, just start red zone in one of the squares the entire time. Right now you can get NFL Sunday Ticket month to month and cancel anytime. Go to youtube.com/BS to sign up now. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games excludes digital only games. Base plan required, renews every month during the 2025 regular season only. Your membership for the following month can be canceled anytime before your renewal date. Terms, restrictions and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded, no refunds. One thing to note before we go to the possibles, the Cowboys line flipped for Ringer 107. It was Bears minus one and a half, but now as we're taping this Thursday night, it's Cowboys favored by one and a half. So what do you think happened?
37:14 Bill Simmons? Was there another Caleb Williams hit piece that I, I missed?
37:17 Speaker 04 No, no, I just think people looked at the matchup and loved the idea of the Cowboys as a dog. The best unit in that game is the Cowboys offense.
37:25 Bill Simmons? That's still a three point shift. It's weird that we can't ever have a pick 'em.
37:31 Bill Simmons? Pick 'em's just never, it has to be, it has to get to one and a half. It can't even get to minus one. It's gotta just, if it flips to one and a half, it just flips the other side. Okay, possibles. We already talked about, uh, the Bengals. You talked about the Cowboys, Rams, Eagles. Rams plus three and a half in Philly. It feels like there's a lot of sharp sentiment heading toward this already.
37:56 Bill Simmons? For a variety of reasons, namely that the Eagles offenses look terrible. The Rams played them well last year. People like watching the Rams throw the ball. They're good. I mean, these might be two of the four best teams in the NFC. There's a tush push. Lot of, lot of stuff about how they were kind of cheating on the tush push on Sunday. And I wonder whether, um, whether the refs are going to be really looking at that play a little more carefully. Um, I wish this line was four and a half, the three and a half makes me a little nervous, but I still kind of like the Rams.
38:27 Speaker 04 Yeah, I'm on the side of the Rams. I like the Rams here. Um, I think that their ability to rush for and not have to necessarily get pressure and not blitz, um, I like that.
38:42 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
38:43 Speaker 04 I'd like the, the idea of them taking away the run. I think they can do it. And you know, Saquon isn't even averaging, averaging four yards a rush yet.
38:54 Bill Simmons? I'm not worried about him yet.
38:55 Speaker 04 You're, you're not. I mean, we're also not really worried about Hertz. He has two passes.
39:00 Bill Simmons? I'm more worried about him.
39:01 Speaker 04 Well, two passes a season of 10 yards or more. Two games, two passes of 10 yards or more.
39:07 Bill Simmons? I don't understand why they're not airing the ball out with him. I did, I watched his, uh, they, they mic'd him. There's like a 14 minute Jalen Hertz mic, which I watched all of. It's really fun at the end when he gets mad at Chris Jones. When they're, they're like, they're like kneeling to end the game and Chris Jones.
39:24 Speaker 04 Victory formation.
39:25 Bill Simmons? Chris Jones, like these motherfuckers don't even have a hundred yards. And he's like, we won. Hertz is like, we won the damn game or whatever it was. I was like, all right, this is why we like the players. I like this.
39:34 Speaker 04 Enjoyed it. Yeah.
39:36 Bill Simmons? So I guess the bigger question for me is, are the Rams actually good? Because if they win in Philly in week three, that is a statement that they're actually going to be heard from in the NFC this year and that we had Packers one, Eagles have to be two, and then the Rams are like right there. Maybe the Lions. I don't see anyone in the NFC West really that can make a case yet, but this would, other than the Rams. So this would be a real statement for them. Kind of like Atlanta too, but let's see them for a few more weeks.
40:06 Speaker 04 The big thing for the Eagles is Dallas Goddard. So like if you're going to be kind of an apologist about how they performed against the Chiefs, Chiefs have good defense, defense that took them to the Super Bowl. No doubt Dallas Goddard, Goddard I think is supposed to be back. That's, that's the idea. So maybe a little bit of the multiplicity on offense.
40:25 Bill Simmons? Has he ever been a hundred percent in the last 10 years? Is there ever a report Dallas Goddard is feeling great?
40:31 Speaker 04 He was good against Washington in the NFC Championship game.
40:33 Bill Simmons? Dallas Goddard is trying Pilates and he's really good at stuff. Uh, speaking of the NFC West, Niners, Cards, inter-division, Niners home, they're laying two and a half.
40:45 Bill Simmons? I love the Niners in this one. I think this is going to be one of the five for me and it's not even a team I love that much, but, um, and especially with Mac Jones, they're my, Purdy might play, but the Cardinals, the deep back situation for them is so abysmal. They've lost so many guys. They're down to like backups to the backups. And I just think this line should be higher. I don't even care who the Niners quarterback is. They, it's, this is just like a Shannon, Shanahan, run the ball, play action, couple of deep throws. Um,
41:16 Speaker 04 Win the game in tidy fashion. That's it.
41:18 Bill Simmons? And it looks like the Niners with that Williams, the rookie they have on the D-line who has been impactful for them.
41:24 Speaker 04 Yeah, yeah. Potential Defensive Rookie of the Year.
41:27 Bill Simmons? I'm not impressed by the Cards at all. Like they've held on for dear life for two weeks in a row. And, uh, and I just find it hard to believe they're going to go three and O is another piece of this, right?
41:39 Speaker 04 We're laying very few, we, we don't have to lay anything. It's the Niners. Put it in the book. It's a lock. It's in our 107 Niners. Lay it.
41:47 Bill Simmons? All right. I like it too.
41:50 Bill Simmons? How you feeling about Jags Texans?
41:53 Speaker 04 I've gone both ways on this one. It's a tough one.
41:56 Bill Simmons? Favored by one and a half. Lots of storylines, lots of Brian Thomas Jr. Drama.
42:03 Bill Simmons? Lots of what's going on with Travis Hunter stuff. This, the Jags, kudos to them. They've generated a lot of content through a couple of weeks. There was a great Reddit post on the Jaguars Reddit about how Trevor Lawrence doesn't actually throw hospital balls with all of this data. I was like, ah, it's a pretty compelling case. Maybe my eyes have been deceiving me.
42:23 Speaker 04 He's also not accurate. I mean, there is that. He may not be throwing hospital balls, but he's certainly not accurate.
42:29 Bill Simmons? They're definitely, uh, the, the Trevor Lawrence hive is pretty funny. We're like, if not for those drops, he would have had four touchdowns. And, you know, it's like, all right.
42:39 Speaker 04 Yeah.
42:40 Bill Simmons? Cool. Do you feel good when he's inside the 10 yard line? Cause I don't.
42:44 Speaker 04 Well, part of the thing too, god damn it, Jags. Like you, you have the coach, like, Diami Brown is out there. I watched him for Washington. It was an absolute good riddance.
42:55 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
42:55 Speaker 04 And Lawrence hit some dead in the hands for a touchdown that, that, you know, should have helped put the game away. And dope drops it as always. I mean, I, I really had enough of him in Washington. Good luck in, in Jacksonville. Which way were you leaning on this game? I'm curious.
43:12 Bill Simmons? I'm leaning Jags and there's a couple of reasons for it. Um, I think their defense, I think they're, they, they actually have like a pass rush and defensive pressure. I think they're all right. Um, they picked Browning three times. He, it was one of those where the, the vibe of the game was just off and the sense he kind of stole it, but I didn't mind how they played. I, I think they have playmakers. They have this backup running back Tooten, who I think might be legitimately good. And I wonder if like this is the week they unleash him. And also they had a big microscope on them this week and Brian Thomas Jr. Had a big microscope. He's very polarizing right now for dogging on routes and stuff. And I, so, so from a Jaguar side, it's like, all right, if you guys have anything in you,
43:57 Bill Simmons? this is the week. And then on a Houston side. They can't block. We've watched them two weeks in a row.
44:04 Speaker 04 Two years.
44:05 Bill Simmons? But especially like they had two really visible games this.
44:09 Speaker 04 Yes.
44:10 Bill Simmons? They can't block. They, you know, Nick Chubb actually broke a couple runs, but I don't trust that piece. And I don't think CJ Stroud's looked good at all.
44:22 Bill Simmons? And really for the last year plus, he hasn't looked like the guy he was as a rookie. I just don't think they have it. I don't think, I don't know who's going to win that division, but I just don't think it's going to be Houston. And, uh, and I think the Jaguars have just as much talent with them. So them being home minus one and a half, Florida outdoors, maybe there'll be some hot weather. Uh, if the Jags can't win this game, come on.
44:47 Speaker 04 Like the case for Houston is they are six and O over the last, since 2018, in Jacksonville and four, one and one against the spread. So they feel like they own the Jags and CJ Stroud has had some good games against the Jags. Now, this is a different iteration of the Jags and a different iteration of Houston, um, especially their run defense. You can run the football. We watched Tampa run it right down their throats. I mean, you know, they, they were, they had some creative, um, movement stuff with Bucky Irving and, and I don't see why that's not replicable for the Jaguars. And I mean, I like the idea of Liam, Liam Cohen in his bag a little bit. Uh, I don't know how the Texans solve their rush defense issue,
45:32 Speaker 04 but if, if the Jags can establish the run, then I think you're on the right side.
45:38 Bill Simmons? Yeah. The counter, if you were going for Houston is they've only given up 28 points in two weeks. They dropped or had a chance to have multiple turnovers on the defensive side that they didn't get. Did you see that stat? Baker has, he could have like six picks. He's zero.
45:55 Speaker 04 Oh, yeah.
45:56 Bill Simmons? It's like six dropped or whatever.
45:58 Speaker 04 Yes. Yes.
46:00 Bill Simmons? But I just don't like the vibe of that team. They have two guys who can rush a passer and they have a very good secondary, but that same very good secondary got lit down the stretch by Baker when he had to go leave the field. They were up five with two minutes left. If you have a good defense, you gotta, you gotta finish and they didn't.
46:18 Speaker 04 That's right.
46:20 Bill Simmons? And, uh, I don't know, I've watched this Jacksonville team. I've watched a lot of them the last two weeks and I think they can move the ball. Like for real. Against Carolina, it was really sloppy and disjointed. They still got to 26 points. They left a lot of stuff on the table, but there was, you could see the potential of it.
46:39 Speaker 04 Yeah.
46:40 Bill Simmons? And then they put up 27 against 16 and it really should have been like 40.
46:44 Speaker 04 Should have been 40.
46:44 Bill Simmons? Cause they got inside the 10 twice, two other times, plus the 27.
46:48 Speaker 04 Yeah.
46:48 Bill Simmons? Yeah. So as crazy as it sounds, I kind of like the Jags.
46:53 Speaker 04 I don't think it's that crazy. We're just, you know, the, the trend is to, to not take the team. You know, the, the 0-2 team is supposed to be the side, but it's a tiny line. It's, I think it's lined perfectly.
47:08 Bill Simmons? Pat Steelers. Pats are plus one and a half in this game against Pittsburgh. The, the, the defensive stats, the advanced stuff for Pittsburgh is even worse than it looked like from an eye test standpoint. Like they basically can't tackle. They're, they had 18.2% missed tackle rate according to next gen stats. Not to mention, um, they've had some, Highsmith is out of this game.
47:32 Speaker 04 Right.
47:33 Bill Simmons? Looks like Joey Porter's probably going to be out. The defense dating back to last year, when they really started to tail off those last four or five games and then heading into this year, the Jets lit them up and then couldn't do anything a week later. I think the Pats could cook in this game. The Pats are good last week against the Dolphins. Like their offense was moving the ball and doing a lot of, lot of good things. I think they've, they've kind of rejuvenated Remandre. The left side of the line, line is actually able to block now. They have multiple receivers who can at least get open on a third and seven. And I, I like the spot for them. I also think the Pats have a real pass rush this year. This, this Milton Williams they signed, he's been awesome. I think he's the number one ranked defensive lineman through two weeks, but he's been like really, really, really disruptive.
48:18 Bill Simmons? And that's how you beat Pittsburgh. You gotta disrupt Rogers, pressure him, get in there. And I think this Steelers season is about to do this. And that's the case for Pats plus one. This is gonna be one of my two for five.
48:31 Speaker 04 What is your current information on the availability of Christian Gonzalez? That's the most important thing to me.
48:40 Bill Simmons? I have no idea if he's gonna play.
48:46 Bill Simmons? And I, I like them either way.
48:48 Speaker 04 Okay, well, I can give a throaty endorsement if Christian Gonzalez is involved, because I really love him locking down one side of the football field. Yeah, well, especially with the pressure putting on, you know, what are you talking about?
49:03 Speaker 04 Oh, I have so many jokes, I won't do it.
49:05 Bill Simmons? So the case for Pittsburgh is they won in week one, and week two came down to that dumbass not understanding the kickoff role that swung the game. I thought, I actually just thought Seattle outplayed them and, and basically Donald had two bad passes that they picked. And Seattle still won by 14, which is, I think, a really bad sign for them. They're playing Minnesota and Cleveland after this for the next two. And then they're at Cincinnati, home Green Bay, home Indianapolis, at the Chargers. And, you know, that's nine games. I think this is, this feels like they could be like three and six after nine games. This could really be the year where like, oh, I guess Tomlin can't win 10 games every year.
49:46 Speaker 04 Well, if, if that's the case, they, they, this is one of the games that they lose. If that's the case.
49:54 Bill Simmons? Well, I'll tell you this. If the Pats win this, and then they have Carolina next week.
50:00 Bill Simmons? That's three and one.
50:03 Bill Simmons? At Buffalo, week five, three and two.
50:05 Speaker 04 That's three and two.
50:07 Bill Simmons? At New Orleans, at Tennessee, home Cleveland, the next three.
50:12 Bill Simmons? Could they literally could be five and three without us having any idea if they're even decent? But this was the case for them going nine and eight. Their schedule was terrible. And if Pittsburgh's not going to be good, that really helps the case for like the schedule may create the a nine and eight team. Not to mention the Jets and Miami really should be four wins for them potentially, right?
50:35 Speaker 04 Their division games are tough games. I mean, Miami damn near won that game in Miami. Put return should have been a clinching play.
50:45 Bill Simmons? Win that game in the first half, though. Uh, speaking of the AFCs, the Jets are six and a half.
50:54 Bill Simmons? In Tampa, Tyrod Taylor is playing, which I like. I know higher floor than Justin Fields, probably a lower ceiling. Tampa's just demolished on the offensive line, like, like to a dangerous level. It's really bad. And I don't think Wirth's is playing this week and they they missed. They lost two other starters.
51:15 Bill Simmons? And I feel like this line's too high. That this is an overreaction to Buffalo spanking the Jets last week. Six and a half is too many points. This should be a four and a half point line.
51:25 Speaker 04 Totally agree with every aspect of that. Do we dare bet against Baker Mayfield? I mean, part of the thing.
51:31 Bill Simmons? I don't want to bet the Jets.
51:33 Speaker 04 I don't want to bet the Jets either.
51:34 Bill Simmons? We they killed us last week.
51:36 Speaker 04 Yeah.
51:37 Bill Simmons? That game, we bet that we, as I talked about on Sunday, that should be an alert from Fandel where they alert you that you've bet on Justin Fields against Josh Allen. We learned our lesson, but I think this line's too high.
51:49 Speaker 04 It's too high. I don't want to bet it. I just can't get there.
51:53 Bill Simmons? All right. Last one is Titans Colts. Titans are a classic sharp pick. Colts pass rush has been bad. Titans offensive line, multiple injuries. Latham might be out and there's their Zeitler might be out too. Colts should be one and one. Colts on grass, Colts outdoors, Colts with a lot of smoke getting blown up their ass all week. It has all the makings. And I actually like the Titans receivers, that rookie they have, the fourth rounder, I think is good. I picked him up in one of my leagues. And Ridley, and I don't know.
52:28 Speaker 04 Him and Ward. Yeah, it's good.
52:31 Bill Simmons? Four and a half seems like a point and a half too high. I thought this should have been Colts minus three.
52:35 Speaker 04 No argument whatsoever. Will not, under any circumstances, bet on the Titans. Just won't do it. Just will not do it. As long as that moron is the head coach, never betting the Titans, you know, it could have been Colts by 10, just not doing it.
52:51 Bill Simmons? He fixed the special teams. Special teams are okay.
52:54 Speaker 04 Well, they hired a special teams coach. Fossil's good.
52:57 Bill Simmons? Yeah, they realized that special teams were one of the three parts of football. Congrats.
53:04 Bill Simmons? All right, parlay possibilities.
53:09 Bill Simmons? The Falcons money line against the Panthers. I want to put the Falcons money line with something because I actually like the Falcons. I think they're good.
53:17 Speaker 04 Me too.
53:18 Bill Simmons? You could also talk me into Falcons minus five and a half, but I'd rather money line them with something.
53:23 Speaker 04 I don't want to mess with that. That's too dumb.
53:25 Bill Simmons? It's in Carolina. They should win. It has another one that has all the makings. You're going against an 0-2 team, but I think Carolina is like genuinely bad. And they threw everyone off the scent because they got two touchdowns in garbage time against Arizona. All of a sudden, they got an onside kick. Like, it just, that game wasn't close for two and a half hours.
53:46 Speaker 04 No interest in betting on Panthers. Don't care what the numbers are. Can't do it.
53:51 Bill Simmons? So with the Falcons minus five and a half, I'm sorry, minus 250. We could put it with the Ravens money line.
54:01 Bill Simmons? Ravens against Detroit. Ravens money line. We could bring the Falcons line to plus two and a half, all adjusted on FanDuel. And that is minus 112, and that fits. That fits in our little, in our little parlay spot. Ravens money line, Falcons plus two and a half. It's minus 112.
54:19 Speaker 04 Is there any scenario under which Detroit with golf, it's an outdoor game, it's in Baltimore, it's a, it's a Monday night game.
54:28 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
54:29 Speaker 04 Campbell gets them revved up.
54:32 Speaker 04 Van Noy out.
54:34 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
54:35 Speaker 04 Is there any way they can keep up scoring wise with the Ravens?
54:38 Bill Simmons? There certainly is.
54:41 Bill Simmons? Do you have another suggestion for us?
54:43 Speaker 04 Money line wise?
54:45 Bill Simmons? Yeah.
54:48 Bill Simmons? So we agree the Falcons in principle should be in this.
54:51 Speaker 04 Yes, we do. We definitely agree.
54:54 Bill Simmons? So could I, what if I offered you, if I could take the Falcons down to two and a half? Minus two and a half with the Packers in Cleveland?
55:05 Speaker 04 Do you think that the Chiefs are going to start season 0-3?
55:11 Speaker 04 With a loss against the Giants?
55:18 Bill Simmons? You really want to back the Chiefs?
55:20 Speaker 04 Just on the money line, just to win.
55:25 Bill Simmons? All right, let me look at.
55:27 Speaker 04 It's the best defense the Giants will have faced by quite a bit, honestly.
55:32 Bill Simmons? I can't believe you're doing that.
55:33 Speaker 04 The Giants played Washington and they played the Cowboys in the first two weeks.
55:39 Bill Simmons? I can't believe you're talking this into this. That's minus 103.
55:45 Speaker 04 But to tell me no, it's fine. I'll, I mean, I'll back off.
55:49 Bill Simmons? I like your logic of let's throw, let's throw all common sense out. Are the Chiefs going 0-3?
55:57 Speaker 04 Is Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes gonna go into Giants stadium and lose to Russell Wilson and your boy Dayball?
56:07 Bill Simmons? How about this?
56:07 Speaker 04 Is that gonna happen?
56:08 Bill Simmons? Are the Giants going 0-3?
56:11 Speaker 04 Sure, sure they are. That was a good one. I enjoyed it.
56:19 Bill Simmons? All right. So that's what you want to do? Give me, what's your favorite pick? Let's do ring a 107.
56:27 Speaker 04 Oh, my, my pick for that?
56:29 Bill Simmons? Yeah, give me your favorite.
56:32 Speaker 04 It's we covered it. I mean, we've already included.
56:35 Bill Simmons? I know we covered it, but let's hear it because I bolded a bunch of games. What do you got?
56:40 Speaker 04 I love the 49ers. That's my favorite pick by far of the entire week. I think that the cards are fraudulent. And this is, you know, it's not like the 49ers are, you know, gangbusters, but I think it's just a nice, orderly, tidy win for them. We could also put the Seahawks in like laying the seven and a half against the Saints is ridiculous. But Spencer Rattler is going to go into Seattle and win his first game straight up as a starter.
57:06 Bill Simmons? Are you talking about putting them instead of the Chiefs?
57:08 Speaker 04 Yes, yes. I'm just offering other alternatives to you. Do you think that the Saints now the Saints defense has been, you know, decent, not horrible.
57:18 Bill Simmons? Do I think the Saints are going to win in Seattle? No.
57:21 Speaker 04 Do you think the Chiefs, right? Okay.
57:25 Bill Simmons? Am I worried about the Chiefs in Giant Stadium? Yes.
57:30 Speaker 04 Okay.
57:31 Bill Simmons? I am a little worried.
57:34 Bill Simmons? Well, we could do an alt line.
57:37 Bill Simmons? An alternate spread to get this down. We could do Seattle to like one and a half. Right? And that will, that will get us to where we need to go. Yeah. Yes. Atlanta money line, Seattle. Minus one and a half is exactly minus 120.
57:56 Speaker 04 Fine.
57:56 Bill Simmons? So we could do that instead of the Chiefs.
57:59 Speaker 04 Fine. Okay. I'm convinced. I'm surprised you're worried about the Chiefs, but it's fine.
58:04 Bill Simmons? I am worried about it. You don't think I should be worried about the Chiefs?
58:08 Speaker 04 Well, I mean, against the spread is one thing. It's a whole nother thing about them, you know, they can't lose to the Giants this week. That that really hurts their season.
58:19 Bill Simmons? All right. You want to do the Chiefs? That's fine. I think you're right. It'll be more fun too, if they lose and we could be like, oh my God, I can't believe we took the Chiefs.
58:29 Speaker 04 So you have the 49ers. Oh my God, we took the Chiefs like, well, you know, it's funny that we're debating it.
58:36 Bill Simmons? Well, it's pretty, it's a pretty sad statement on their season. I have the Pats. Yeah. Are we throwing the Jags in here?
58:43 Speaker 04 I'm convinced. I like it.
58:47 Bill Simmons? So our fifth one. We can do.
58:52 Bill Simmons? You like the Cowboys, the Rams? The, uh, you don't want to do Titans or Jets?
58:58 Speaker 04 No, can't.
58:59 Bill Simmons? Bengals, Bengals plus three.
59:01 Speaker 04 I love the Bengals plus three, but you know, then we look at ourselves in the mirror and said, we bet on Browning on the road. Like, what do we?
59:08 Bill Simmons? We bet on Browning against Brian Flores.
59:12 Speaker 04 Right. Are we sure the? He has beat Flores before, Browning has.
59:16 Bill Simmons? Are we sure the Eagles don't have a little? People aren't giving us enough, enough credit?
59:22 Speaker 04 Yeah.
59:22 Bill Simmons? We have to lay the smackdown kind of stuff?
59:24 Speaker 04 I'm fine with leaving them alone. I kind of don't really want to, I don't feel super convinced that we should mess with them, even though I think the Rams are the right side. I kind of don't want to mess with that one.
59:37 Bill Simmons? Well, we're running out of teams.
59:40 Bill Simmons? Because then that leaves the Seahawks.
59:43 Speaker 04 Nope.
59:43 Bill Simmons? That, that leaves, we could do something with the Cowboys and the over.
59:49 Speaker 04 We're what? We're doing totals?
59:51 Bill Simmons? Well, I mean, if we wanted to use our parlay for that, or we could just do the Cowboys minus one and a half.
59:58 Speaker 04 I'm fine with Cowboys minus one and a half. I mean, I think this Bears team, their whole secondary is, is out, like half of them are out for the season. And I, like I, I asked you earlier, Nate, tell me one thing that you've seen out of the Bears.
1:00:13 Bill Simmons? They can't run the ball.
1:00:14 Speaker 04 One good touchdown against the Vikings in week one.
1:00:19 Bill Simmons? Right, to start the game.
1:00:21 Speaker 04 The, this, the dramatic stark difference between the, the first series of the game for the Bears. And what Caleb, Caleb Williams' numbers are after his completion percentage is through the roof. The efficacy, you know, all of the EPA stuff for him, first series of each game has been on point. And then that's it. He's barely a 50% accurate thrower of the football.
1:00:49 Bill Simmons? All right, you know what? Here's what we're gonna do. We're making the Cowboys your pick and we'll make the 49ers a joint pick.
1:00:54 Speaker 04 Okay, good.
1:00:55 Bill Simmons? And then I'll take the Pats and the Jags and then we'll agree on Falcons Chiefs together. This episode is brought to you by. Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun? Sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead. But what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully your team doesn't go to Cancun. 1, 2, 3 Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save. Savings vary. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation.
1:01:38 Bill Simmons? That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you. So they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. All right, let's do today's Ringer 107. It's brought to you by FanDuel. Ringer 107, 4-6 after 2 weeks. The picks. House loves the Cowboys in Chicago. The case being, I haven't seen one thing I like from the Chicago Bears. Fair enough. Dallas can throw the ball. Dallas has, this is one of the great kicker mismatches too, where we have Aubrey on one hand, the greatest kicker of all time, which with this new kickoff rule, it's like they're guaranteed 3 points every time they get the ball. And then God only knows who's kicking for the Bears this week.
1:02:23 Bill Simmons? So Cowboys -1.5 in Chicago, grabbing that. We are grabbing the Jags -1.5 at home against Houston. They've been a soap opera all this week. I think it actually helps them. This feels a little bit of a kitchen sinky type game for them, and I'm not a believer in Houston at all. All right, then we have the Pats -1.5 at home. They're a home dog against 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who has been bad anytime he's pressured. Against a Steelers defense, and especially a run defense that has looked pretty abysmal. They're missing dudes. They're missing Highsmith, probably Joey Porter. They weren't 100% healthy to begin with. TJ Watts on a milk carton at this point. Left side of the Pats line looking better. Look out for Trevion Henderson in this game.
1:03:09 Bill Simmons? I liked how the Pats, something's happening with them offensively. We've seen Drake May, when he actually gets protection, there's something pretty good in there. So Pats -1.5. It's not a homer pick. I picked the Pats to have the worst record in the league last year. I actually think the Pats might be pretty frisky for the next couple of weeks. 49ers minus 2 and 1/2. We don't even know who the quarterback is. Is it Brock Purdy?
1:03:31 Speaker 04 Doesn't matter.
1:03:32 Bill Simmons? Is it Mac Jones?
1:03:32 Speaker 04 Doesn't matter.
1:03:33 Bill Simmons? I don't care.
1:03:33 Speaker 04 I've seen enough of the Cardinals.
1:03:34 Bill Simmons? Yeah, we've seen enough of the Cardinals. We've seen enough of their backups to the backups, D backs. So 49ers minus 2 and 1/2. And last but not least, we're doing a little parlay. Money line. The Atlanta Falcons, we believe, will absolutely positively win in Carolina. This is a game in Week 16. I'd be nervous about it, not Week 3. I just think too many weapons. And Carolina is terrible. I think Carolina is the worst team in the league.
1:04:00 Bill Simmons? And then House really wanted to put the Chiefs in here.
1:04:05 Speaker 04 I'll take it. I do. I'll own it. I really want to put the Chiefs in here. Yes, I do. God damn it.
1:04:12 Bill Simmons? Andy Reid versus Brian Dayball. Patrick Mahomes versus Russell Wilson.
1:04:16 Speaker 04 Yes.
1:04:17 Bill Simmons? The Chiefs cannot go 0-3. That was another thing you said. Maybe even a little kitchen sinky for the Chiefs, not wanting to go 0-3 heading into, you know, this is like one of the easiest games in their schedule. So that will be our Ringer 107 for Week 3. Hopefully we can get over 500. All right, that was today's Ringer 107. It was brought to you by FanDuel. Remember, lines and odds are subject to change. House, how are you feeling about the Clippers situation?
1:04:47 Speaker 04 It seems like it's now 50-50 whether the other owners want to punish them. It feels like the vibes coming out. And it also is the case for sure that Silver seems fine with this lingering over the league into the season. It looks like they're gonna let the law firm...
1:05:09 Bill Simmons? He's gonna take his time. Yeah, I think he wants to do this correctly. He's not gonna rush to judgment because people... On NBA Reddit or upset he hasn't decided what to do yet. I think this is going to take a while, but not, I don't think he's stalling. I think he's going to do a real ass investigation and try to figure out what happened so he can punish them correctly.
1:05:26 Speaker 04 It looks like the timeline is sufficiently in advance of the All-Star game so that if the punishment includes taking away the All-Star game from the Clippers, they could, they could, they could give it to the Lakers of all things. Still keep it in LA. Everybody's already got their travel plans to LA, but that would be one of the, one of the ways to punish the Clippers.
1:05:46 Bill Simmons? Well, I mean, that would punish the people going to the All-Star game because Staples Center sucks. Whatever it's called, the crypto. It's like, it's like a double A arena compared to into it.
1:05:58 Speaker 04 I'm just saying.
1:05:59 Bill Simmons? That would really suck.
1:06:00 Speaker 04 Timeline wise, it seems like that's sort of roughly it, right? If you give the law firm until Jan, mid-January, if part of the punishment for Ballmer includes that.
1:06:10 Bill Simmons? Too much smoke.
1:06:13 Speaker 04 Oh, I agree with this.
1:06:14 Bill Simmons? I, I still don't know what happened and I still want all the facts to come out, but there's just too many payments right around time when Kawhi needed a payment and uh, not looking good for the Clips. What did you think of my theory? Like one of the things with the punishment should be, they should just move to Seattle and call it quits. Just like we tried, since 1984, we've been trying. We're just, it's obviously just never going to work here. And uh, we're just gonna start over in Seattle and we'll leave the into it. We'll sell it to Lakers.
1:06:46 Speaker 04 Ballmer would have to, so they sell Intuit to the Lakers. The Lakers get to play into it and Ballmer has to build a brand new Intuit in Seattle. That's his punishment.
1:06:54 Bill Simmons? Moves to Seattle, start, yeah, that's his punishment.
1:06:56 Speaker 04 He has to build the same stadium in Seattle.
1:06:59 Bill Simmons? You have to build the aspiration dome in Seattle.
1:07:03 Speaker 04 With trees, with fake trees everywhere.
1:07:05 Bill Simmons? Aspiration 2.0.
1:07:06 Speaker 04 Carbon trees. Yes.
1:07:08 Bill Simmons? Trees and fake sunlight.
1:07:11 Speaker 04 He's fine with Seattle. I mean, you know, the whole Microsoft thing, it all makes sense. Could be a kind of hero. You take a villain and turn him into a hero. That's the punishment.
1:07:20 Bill Simmons? I was thinking, I mean, I'm not the first person to make this point, but um,
1:07:26 Bill Simmons? This Kawhi, the entire thing of going into business with this dude, all the stuff it cost them, all the players and the draft picks, plus this scandal, it has to be the most damaging transaction in the history of the league. I don't even think you could compare it to anything.
1:07:40 Speaker 04 Wow, the most damaging transaction in the history.
1:07:43 Bill Simmons? It's already retroactively one of the worst trades of all time.
1:07:47 Speaker 04 It's not worse than Luca. It's not worse than Luca.
1:07:51 Bill Simmons? They ended up with Cooper Flag.
1:07:54 Speaker 04 It's not worse than Luca.
1:07:56 Bill Simmons? But in a roundabout way, at least somewhat worked out. Would you trade Anthony Davis?
1:08:02 Speaker 04 It hasn't worked out at all.
1:08:02 Bill Simmons? All right, just forget all the dumb reasons behind the trade. Would you trade Anthony Davis and Cooper Flag for Luca?
1:08:08 Speaker 04 Fuck no. No. How strongly can I put it?
1:08:12 Bill Simmons? All right, what if I threw Max Christian?
1:08:13 Speaker 04 Fuck no. Fuck no.
1:08:14 Bill Simmons? What if I threw Max Christian?
1:08:16 Speaker 04 Have you bet on the NBA? Oh, you can't bet on MVP. Luca, I got him at seven to one this summer. I'm loving that ticket. Luca is going to win the goddamn MVP this season.
1:08:28 Bill Simmons? That's what it is.
1:08:29 Speaker 04 I don't think it is that anymore. I got it this summer. He looked great in that Euro thing.
1:08:37 Bill Simmons? I'm looking right now. Hold on. Awards.
1:08:43 Bill Simmons? Unbelievably, I've not looked at this. SGA plus 150, Jokic plus 350, Luca down to plus 380.
1:08:50 Speaker 04 See, a great, great price for me. I'm happy. Closing line value. I can put the ticket in a frame and say, oh, I had it back when.
1:08:58 Bill Simmons? The best odds are Giannis at 12 to one.
1:09:01 Speaker 04 Because he ends up on the Knicks.
1:09:03 Bill Simmons? No, just Bucks in a weak conference, him putting up like a 32, 12 and 6, like single-handedly dragging them to a three seed.
1:09:12 Speaker 04 I know it's only September 18th.
1:09:14 Bill Simmons? Two MVPs, two in a row. That's it.
1:09:17 Speaker 04 People will be fine with us waiting a month to talk about the NBA. But I just want to ask you, who do you think is the second best team in the East?
1:09:27 Bill Simmons? I think it's Cavs Knicks in whatever order you want.
1:09:31 Speaker 04 Okay.
1:09:31 Bill Simmons? Drop off.
1:09:32 Speaker 04 Okay.
1:09:32 Bill Simmons? Right?
1:09:32 Speaker 04 Okay.
1:09:33 Bill Simmons? Isn't that the correct answer?
1:09:34 Speaker 04 Yes.
1:09:34 Bill Simmons? Who do you think it is?
1:09:36 Speaker 04 I like the Knicks better than I like the Cavs. This season, the answer to me is the Cavs, but I just wondered if you had a wild card.
1:09:43 Bill Simmons? FanDuel has Cavs to win the East plus 230 Knicks plus 320 and then it goes Orlando plus 550 Hawks nine to one. Those Hawks odds, we were on that. Remember when it was like 17 to one or 18 to one for them to win the East? Detroit. I mean, the funniest thing is after you get past Orlando, then you immediately go into the Atlanta Detroit Milwaukee territory. But then somehow Philly is in there at 14 to one, like they have any chance. I did, I did enjoy skinny and bead though.
1:10:14 Bill Simmons? Did you see skinny and bead?
1:10:15 Speaker 04 No, I haven't, I haven't.
1:10:17 Bill Simmons? Oh, he, he.
1:10:18 Speaker 04 My timeline right now is great. I'm thrilled.
1:10:21 Bill Simmons? Yeah, he lost some weight.
1:10:22 Speaker 04 I wish him the best of luck.
1:10:24 Bill Simmons? You seem a little dubious.
1:10:27 Bill Simmons? Yeah, I would say Cleveland Knicks. And then what's interesting with the West?
1:10:33 Bill Simmons? The Lakers still have the fourth best odds and the Clippers still have the fifth best odds, even though we don't know if there's going to be like, God only knows. Like what if Kawhi's contract just gets voided?
1:10:42 Speaker 04 No, they're not doing that.
1:10:44 Bill Simmons? Minnesota has the six best odds at 12 to one, which I do not fundamentally understand.
1:10:49 Speaker 04 Minnesota to me is either the third or the fourth best team.
1:10:53 Bill Simmons? They have to be. There, it's either them or Houston in the three spot.
1:10:56 Speaker 04 No, that's right.
1:10:56 Bill Simmons? Like, there's no question. How do the Lakers have better odds than Minnesota?
1:11:02 Speaker 04 The market, that's all. Dumb Laker enthusiasm.
1:11:07 Bill Simmons? Dallas 25 to one, get exciting for you at all?
1:11:10 Speaker 04 No.
1:11:11 Bill Simmons? San Antonio 30 to one, nothing?
1:11:13 Speaker 04 Oh, if the Angelo Russell's playing guard for the Mavericks, come on.
1:11:18 Bill Simmons? I was gonna actually start NBA homework next week. I've done nothing.
1:11:23 Speaker 04 I'm in the same boat. I haven't done anything either, but.
1:11:26 Bill Simmons? Yeah, we're like within, within five weeks of the season now.
1:11:29 Speaker 04 Yeah.
1:11:31 Bill Simmons? Um, all right, House. Happy gambling this week. Good to see you. I will, I'll see you on the Ringer Gambling Show on Monday and on this pod in a week. Good to see you.
1:11:41 Speaker 04 Can't wait.
1:11:42 Bill Simmons? All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks, Joe House. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. I'm going to be back on Sunday night with Cousin Sal. And you can see me on the Prestige TV podcast on Sunday night talking about Task, episode three as well. And new rewatch of us coming Monday airplane. So that is the schedule. Enjoy the weekend. Please stay safe.
1:12:19 Bill Simmons? Let's be 21 plus in President's State states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas Star Casino. Or 18 plus in President DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts. Or call 1-8778-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell. I like those guys. Star in the sharp-witted comedy thriller
1:13:03 Bill Simmons? from Academy Award winner Martin McDonagh. Writer-director of The Banshees of Inisherin and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island. Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys, Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9. Only in theaters Friday. Get tickets now. This episode is brought to you by Core Power Protein Shakes. You know how we always talk about the little things that separate great athletes?
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Previous Winning QBs and Football Nerds With Mina Kimes, Plus Robert Redford’s Incredible Career With Brian Koppelman Next Are the Chargers for Real? Plus: the Tommy Boy Titans, a New York Swoon, Throwback Pats PTSD, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal. Page updated November 1, 2026 · transcript and summary are machine-generated