Round 1 NFL Reactions With Cousin Sal

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to discuss the game of wild-card weekend: Buccaneers-Commanders (2:55), the Round 2 schedule, the Eagles beating the Packers (20:34), Broncos-Bills, Steelers-Ravens, and Chargers-Texans (35:24) before guessing the lines for the NFL divisional round (54:35). They then discuss the devastating Southern California fires (1:13:55). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producers: Kyle Crichton, Chia Hao Tat, and Steve Ceruti The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  What's happening? It's Todd McShay and I'm back with a new home and a new show at The Ringer and Spotify, The McShay Show. It's a video and audio podcast coming to you year round with all my NFL draft information, big boards, mock drafts, and player movement. Plus, I'll be chatting with some of my best friends in football, including some of your favorite football analysts. During the week, we'll have episodes on Tuesdays and Thursdays that'll include discussions about my player rankings, who's rising, who's falling, and who your NFL team should be keeping an eye on. Plus, we'll be reacting each week to the college football playoff polls and giving you previews and picks for each Saturday slate. In addition, I'll have episodes on Saturday nights with

• 0:41Speaker 00

  my immediate reaction to the full day in college football every week. So if you love the college game, the NFL, the draft, or all of it like me, make sure to like, follow, subscribe, and get ready for The McShay Show on The Ringer, Spotify, and wherever you watch or listen to podcasts.

• 1:01Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season. Uber Eats is delivering deals every game day. This week, get 10 free boneless wings from Wingstop on qualifying orders. Game on, flavor on, Wingstop is here. So if your fantasy league is coming over for some in-person smack talk, order Wingstop on Uber Eats and get 10 boneless wings free. It's the perfect way to keep everyone fed tonight so you can focus on the game. No matter who scores big tonight, you'll score a great deal. Order now and get 10 boneless wings free from Wingstop, only on Uber Eats. Offer valid from September 14th to September 27th and from November 2nd to November 16th. Order minimum before taxes and fees is required. See retailer's storefront for details. Taxes, fees, and terms apply. Product availability

• 1:46Bill Simmons?

  varies by region. Exclusions may apply. See app for details. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Excitement is in the air. That's right. It's the start of NBA season. I can't wait to get together with friends, share some Michelob Ultras and watch Tip Off. Plus, as the official beer sponsor of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21 plus. Begins on October 1st, 2026, ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com/courtside for free entry,

• 2:29Bill Simmons?

  entry deadlines, prizes and details. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network. I did not have a podcast for you on Tuesday and Thursday last week for obvious reasons. It was the worst week in the history of Southern California. It, uh, there was just so much devastation, so much heartache, so much fear, so much terror. And ultimately, uh, everything about it was awful. And some people stepped up, fire department, police department, first responders, TV reporters on the ground, helicopter pilots dropping water, all of the people in various communities who banded together to get toiletries and extra clothes and all kinds of things people need if their house has just burned down

• 3:14Bill Simmons?

  or it's been, or they've been evacuated. So there was some good that, that came out of, uh, some awful. And it was as awful as it gets. And I'm still trying to wrap my head around it. I wasn't sure that we should do a podcast today. Sal and I have reacted after round one, really since 2007. And I don't know if we should have done a podcast, but, uh, we decided, we wanted the, uh, we wanted everything to feel normal again for an hour. So we decided to talk football and we talked about California at the, uh, at the tail end. But, um, I wanted to just give my best to everybody out there who's been affected by this in some way because, um,

• 3:58Bill Simmons?

  I just can't believe it. And I don't think, I know you can see it from the video and the pictures, but I don't think you can fully believe how awful this is. So hopefully we can get through it. Hopefully we can rebuild it. Hopefully there's a light at the end of the tunnel here, but right now it's hard to see. So anyway, we're going to talk some football. We're not going to start with Pearl Jam. We're just going to get to, uh, get to the five games. Then we're going to talk California at the end of the podcast. So that's the plan. Here we go. We're taping this a little after 8:15 Pacific time. Uh, definitely the worst week either of us have had since we moved to LA and we're going to talk about all the awful California stuff later. We'll start with football and then, uh, we'll circle back around because there's a lot

• 4:41Bill Simmons?

  to cover on that. But we want to hit the, the football first, as weird as that sounds, Sal. We had four really lousy games and then a really good one. Tampa, Washington. Washington was their first playoff game in 20 years and it ends up being a doink. That puts it over the top. Um, that did not make up for the other four games from an entertainment standpoint, but really entertaining. I'm wondering, is Washington this season, they're not the best team, but they're the kind of the Daniel Bryan, Brett Hitman heart. Like you always have a good match when you're in a, in a match with Washington. They're one of those teams. They're not going to win the title, but they've been the most fun team this season, right? They've been in the most fun games.

• 5:22Speaker 02

  Not so fast, Bill, with them not winning the title. Jaden, Jaden Daniels' face is bleeding. I just, I just want to lick that blood right off of him. No, that's, uh, good for Joe House. Uh, yeah, like you said, somber week, shitty week, but, uh, I feel good for Joe House. One of our fricking teams is going and advancing, but he was awesome, Jaden Daniels. He was really, I mean, they were coming after him for that guy to not turn the ball over once with the heat he was facing and just big play after big play. Good for him and good for us for finally getting a good game 36 hours later.

• 5:55Bill Simmons?

  House did not have the, uh, cojones to actually take Washington.

• 5:59Speaker 02

  No.

• 6:00Bill Simmons?

  In the Ringer Sunday pregame show. He did, what did he do? Some bogus Tampa over was his way of covering his bases.

• 6:06Speaker 02

  Tampa over 27 and a half points. And he said Washington would win 28, 27. Yeah, he was really threading the needle there.

• 6:12Bill Simmons?

  I think the Washington fans were believing that they actually had a real chance to win this one. And the line reflected it. It was Tampa by three, but, um, this came down to a couple of plays for me. So. Washington, they're down four and Tampa gets the goal line stand, right? And it goes to fourth and five. There's like, I don't know, less than 10 minutes left. And I, I always think the team should, should kick the field goal, take the points, make it a one point game.

• 6:40Speaker 02

  I was with you.

• 6:40Bill Simmons?

  Tampa doesn't do it. Fourth and five is a lot when you're inside the 10. I just didn't trust that they were going to get it. I thought it was a mistake. Tampa gets the big stop. They have the momentum going the other way. Fumble. Now we're going back again. Now it's fourth and two. Fourth and, and it was like on the 11, fourth and two, a little more manageable. I was okay with them going to the second time, plus there was less time in the game and Daniels delivers, comes through, right? So now Washington's up three. Tampa goes all the way back down. They have this great drive. Baker has a scramble. It's second and one on the 11. And there's like less than five minutes left. They run this like QB option run with Baker gets stuffed. Then the next play like fumbled snap, Bucky Irving, all these tackled four yards behind the line.

• 7:24Bill Simmons?

  All of a sudden they're kicking a field goal and it was like, it just like tush push it. You have first down, first down goal to go, and you have a chance to control your destiny. Then Washington comes back down, two huge plays, that little weird screen pass flick play that Daniels made.

• 7:38Speaker 02

  Could have been intercepted. Yeah.

• 7:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but it was a really nice play. They get it. They go down into field goal territory. Then that awesome third and one by Daniels, which is, that was the play of the game. That's why he's special, but Sal, like over and over again in the last like five, six, seven minutes of these games. He's just pulling them out. I'd be scared of them if I was Philadelphia.

• 7:59Speaker 02

  I'd be scared of anyone if I was Philadelphia, if the plan is to play like, play like they did today. But um, they're not playing Philadelphia, right? They're playing Detroit.

• 8:08Bill Simmons?

  No, and I got all excited. I actually looked this up. Do you, cause I thought it was Washington, Philadelphia before I realized I was confused by the standings. Do you know how many times Washington and Philadelphia played in the playoffs?

• 8:19Speaker 02

  Uh, has it not happened a lot? I'll say four.

• 8:23Bill Simmons?

  One.

• 8:24Speaker 02

  Really?

• 8:25Bill Simmons?

  One. It was the Mark Rippon year. Um, Washington beat them 20 to six.

• 8:31Speaker 02

  The one they won the Super Bowl?

• 8:32Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 8:32Speaker 02

  Interesting.

• 8:33Bill Simmons?

  That was the only time they've ever played in the playoffs, which is weird because they played twice a year. I would, I would have guessed it was like, and they've been in the league this whole time. I would have guessed.

• 8:40Speaker 02

  Forever.

• 8:41Bill Simmons?

  It would have been like eight, seven, 10. I don't know.

• 8:44Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, they're not going to play again. So that's good. But yeah, that's uh, they're um, they're solid Washington. As far as the coaches go with the fourth and two, I, I'm, I was with you. I like, I just take the points in a lot of these situations. I know they proved me wrong, but the plays that were running for Jaden Daniels weren't great. They were making him a pocket passer. They're on like fourth and two and fourth and four. So I was all for taking the points in most of those situations. It's a different story when it's Eagles and it's Hertz and Barkley. And if I have Lamar, if I have Henry, you know, if I have Josh Allen. But other than that, fourth and two is still fourth and two. You could kick, kick a field goal. And I was okay with them leaving that field goal on the board too.

• 9:25Bill Simmons?

  What did you think of, of Tampa potentially going for it down three with like four minutes left?

• 9:30Speaker 02

  When it was like fourth and four?

• 9:31Bill Simmons?

  That would have been like a fourth and three after they got stuffed twice. Yeah. It was like fourth and three.

• 9:35Speaker 02

  I don't like it after. That was, that was the play where like there was uh, the disarray at the line of scrimmage, right? Like they, I, I never liked the next play after that. I don't know what it would have been. I know there was like easy stuff happening with Evans, but I, I kinda get it. Uh, look, there's, there's so much to go after bowls for. That's not one of them.

• 9:53Bill Simmons?

  Well, especially the end of the first half when he was mismanaging everything and somehow they scored anyway. I thought they should kick the field goal. And yet when they kicked the field goal, I thought Washington was going to come down and get the game winning field goal. It was weird. I, I, I didn't think they should go for it, but I also thought they were going to lose because they didn't get those uh, those two plays. I think.

• 10:13Speaker 02

  I just like saying Vida Vea Bill. I'll say Vida Vea over and over and over.

• 10:17Bill Simmons?

  I tried to order Vida Vea at Peter Luger's. They didn't have it.

• 10:22Bill Simmons?

  I mean, big picture. And we know a lot of Washington fans. This was the, this was the official fuck you Dan Snyder game.

• 10:30Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah.

• 10:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. You know, not, it was one thing. It's a cute story. They had a Hail Mary. They got into the playoffs. You know, Dan Quinn, it's a family atmosphere. They have a front office that actually knows what they're doing. Adam Peters, like they've turned the organization around. That makes them look bad enough, but now you have this awesome playoff win. Now they're playing Detroit, a team that doesn't have the most awesome defense, at least until week 18, when they looked pretty good against Minnesota, but Donald Russell left a lot of throws. If I'm Washington, I feel like I can go in there and, and at least match points with Detroit. Who the fuck knows?

• 11:06Speaker 02

  Hell, yeah. Yes. You got a rookie quarterback that didn't, like I said, didn't turn the ball over at all in many instances where he could have. I mean, that's gotta be his, it's, you know, I don't know. They might be banged up and, and the Lions are more rested and everything like that. But I think this for now, now that we're talking like a week before, I think this is closer. They do get screwed with the Saturday thing though, right? They have six days.

• 11:29Bill Simmons?

  Well, you knew somebody was gonna get screwed with the Sunday to Saturday. I guess it would be worse if it was the Monday game. But yeah, first playoff win in 20 years. And like, you know, the Patriots hired Mike Vrabel this weekend, which was felt like it was. We felt like it was headed that way for five days, but I was getting intel that it was getting a little hairy on Friday night and Chicago was making a run at him. And, you know, and you think like, oh, man, if we don't get him and we don't get, all of a sudden we're looking at the Pete Carroll range of guys. But they get Vrabel, they have Drake May, they have all this cap space, they have the fourth pick. And, you know, they had probably one of the worst rosters in the league, if not the worst.

• 12:08Bill Simmons?

  They're in a division with Buffalo. There's all these reasons not to believe, but I watch a team like Washington, like they turned it around in a year. That team was. A fucking, you know, shit can and they drafted the right quarterback. They changed the coach. They brought in a really good coaching staff and all of a sudden they have 13 wins. So it's not like they're like a nine and 18 that snuck in like this team's won 13 times.

• 12:30Speaker 02

  And the another strike against them was the ownership and there was the defecation in the stadium. And we can go on and on and on. It doesn't really make sense. Dan Quinn's done a nice job with this team. And like you said, this, this is just a, they call lightning in a bottle with this Jaden Daniels. It's a, it's terrific, but congratulations on variable. I think that's, that's fun for you, right? Good news to end the week.

• 12:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it feels like, uh,

• 12:56Bill Simmons?

  you need the coach, you need the QB and I can kind of figure out everything else, right? But if I don't have those two things, where am I going? And you need at least like a solid coach, maybe better than that. And you need a top 10 QB potentially, and now they have the two things. And now they can try to build their roster, but I thought what the way Washington did it was the blueprint. They had a lot of really smart, second level free agent signings, like the, kind of going after like the B-list guys, like the best of the B-list and they spent a lot of money on their coaching staff. So it seems replicable. The Pats have a really super easy schedule. Anyway, I was, I was inspired by Washington. The, the difference is Daniels, he's in his mid twenties. You know, he's in college for nine years, you know, there's a reason he looks like a veteran.

• 13:41Bill Simmons?

  He's almost as old as Joe Burrow.

• 13:44Speaker 02

  I was thinking that with Bo Nix too. I was like, ah, maybe I was wrong about all this and the rookies. If they have like 60 college games under their belt and they've all played in like high profile bowls and you know, they don't really get shook, but we'll talk about that game. That's a whole different story. But listen, I think part of you is saying Vrabel did this with Tannehill. He could do it with Drake May. Isn't that the bottom line?

• 14:04Bill Simmons?

  He's, he's never had an elite quarterback ever. Yeah. And hopefully Drake May can get there. Well, I'm hoping. Now I thought, I mean, I've talked about Vrabel a bunch of times on the, on the pod. I just felt like. He was hands down the best coaching candidate available. We'll see with Ben Johnson, but there's a big difference between calling plays and actually having to run a whole team and build the whole culture. I think, I, I thought Tampa, Washington was the hardest game to pick. Who'd you have in that game?

• 14:31Speaker 02

  I picked it right. I had Washington. I actually went 4-1. My playoffs have been terrible over the last few years. Did you get 3-2 or 4-1? What'd you do?

• 14:39Bill Simmons?

  I just, I had all those, I, I never did million dollar picks this week, but I had all those anchor teasers with Buffalo and Baltimore. Eight, eight and a half point teasers. So Green Bay covered by half point. The, the Tampa covered today. I had a lot of, lot of trouble with the Chargers' loss yesterday. I had a lot of trouble with Washington-Tampa because I like the same thing about both teams. I like their offenses. I like the way their quarterbacks were playing. And I thought that both of them were really these close knit teams. You know, I was reading the stories about Tampa heading into the, out of the week 18 and like that Mike Evans play that we were joking about last week about, oh my God, that was kind of risky.

• 15:20Speaker 02

  Right.

• 15:20Bill Simmons?

  To go for it, to go for a thousand yards. You have the game. You're like, the playoffs are on the line.

• 15:23Speaker 02

  Sure.

• 15:24Bill Simmons?

  And you read the stories about it and guys were saying it was like the highlight of their careers. Like they all loved Mike Evans and they're, they were like, this, this record meant a lot to him. He got hurt. He didn't think he was going to be back in time to try to break it. And there was just all this stuff and you could just feel the love coming out of that. They love Baker Mayfield. They play hard for him. So I was like, man, this is almost two teams. I, I, I wish these two teams were playing two other teams so I could pick both of these teams. It was one of those because everything you read about Washington's the same thing. Dan Quinn, he's turned the vibes around. The, the mood is completely different and they end up winning the mood ball, I guess.

• 16:02Speaker 02

  I think we felt the same way about Rams-Detroit last year. Remember? I watched your place and I go like, ah, why'd I have to square up in the first round? This is good. Yeah. So, yeah, Baker's great. When he takes off, you have no choice but to root for him. Somehow he's got legs. There's like 200 more rushing yards this year than he has in the previous five, any of the previous five or six. Like it's really, it's spectacular. And Mike Evans just diving backwards. For a first down. It's it is really tough. Irving runs hard. Defense plays hard. Tough to

• 16:30Bill Simmons?

  It's a good team. I had I had written down because I there seemed like they were going to possibly win at one point and I was researching them. They had a case for being the best 2020s NFC team and they still might have the case even now. Because they want they're one of the only two NFC teams that won a Super Bowl. They've had four division titles. They were six and three in the playoffs heading into this game today. Over the last five seasons of 2020s, they're 51 and 33. It was like you would never think if you said to somebody who is the best team in the NFC this decade. I don't think they would have been a top four guess for anybody, but I think they are. It's either them or Philadelphia. They have a better record and more playoff wins.

• 17:10Bill Simmons?

  And then the loss today, like, you know, I think they would have had a chance in round two against whoever they played, but the the Mayfield thing, when you think about, he goes to Cleveland, plays for four coaches his first three seasons. He wins their first playoff game with that franchise, right? But since he they came back. He tore his labrum in his left shoulder, second game 2021, has the year from hell. They end up paying him to go away 11 million in Carolina and go into the Sean thing. And now Baker, I he's not a top five quarterback, but he's in the top 10 or 11. And you just think like this whole thing is one of the biggest disaster decisions start to finish in the history of the league.

• 17:52Speaker 02

  It's so hard, I think, for us. I don't want people to feel bad for us because we're doing what we love. But we look at football and players, I think, through all different lenses, right? We'd look at them like historically, we look at fantasy wise, like Baker's great, exciting. He's top three or four, five, exciting. And it's like, okay, but where does where does that put him in actually, you know, in terms of building a team around him? So I don't know. I don't know if I want to say he's top four or five or anywhere in there. But I love watching them and I love everything he brings to that team. And I feel like he's in the prime of his career, you know, like, yeah, don't compare him to Flacco. And don't compare him to any of these other guys. I I hope people don't do that anymore. And I think you're right, like they were the best, one of the best teams in the NFC. I think they get a bad rap because it's the South that they keep winning.

• 18:36Bill Simmons?

  And we make fun of the South every year. Yeah, right. It's our fault. Yeah, the the thing, if you're talking about just QB assets, and we always talk about a rookie QB, how that's the best asset you can have. But they have him, his contract compared to the other monster contracts where every other superstar's making 50, 55 million a year, whatever they're on the cap for. And I think he signed for like 30, 30 plus a year, something like that. So definitely a better asset. Anyway, that was a great game for, for, for the weekend because up until that point, it felt like it was the worst weekend ever. For a variety of reasons, real life reasons, the actual games, it was just one of those weekends.

• 19:19Bill Simmons?

  You're like, man, I used to love round one and this time I feel stupid watching football.

• 19:26Speaker 02

  Here's the thing, once the college games are really good, I'm like, ah, the NFL is going to suck now, isn't it? We can't just have all.

• 19:32Bill Simmons?

  Right. The college games are excellent.

• 19:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, they were very good. And then coming into this weekend, but a lot of people all over. Can we just accept the fact that we're probably not going to get good competitive games in any sport in the playoffs for the first couple of rounds? Can all we really hope for is a good final four as sports fans and not like tear each other's eyes out, arguing over who has the better system? Like the NBA might actually have the best. There are some good four or five matchups every year, but then they have some finals that suck too. So I think you just have to hope that the final four is good and, and, and let the cream rise to the top.

• 20:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Weirdly, the NBA might be in the best shape for around one this year because they have so much talent and they have some teams in the seven, eight, nine, 10 range that the play-ins will be fun. Now you're making, you're mad at me about the Sacramento.

• 20:24Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm sorry. I didn't mean to talk about the NBA at all. I was just using as one of.

• 20:27Bill Simmons?

  No, because I saw your mind go to the Sacramento, Indiana, Minnesota bet we made.

• 20:32Speaker 02

  House's team is going to win for the first time in 20 years. And you're talking about this stupid parlay we have with Sacramento and Indiana.

• 20:39Bill Simmons?

  The Sacramento under, Indiana over, and the Minnesota under. And after we did it, Sacramento fired their coach and now they're just pulling games out of their ass, game after game after game.

• 20:51Bill Simmons?

  Let's, let's take a break and we'll talk about the other games.

• 20:56Bill Simmons?

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• 21:41Bill Simmons?

  You must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC. Opt-in required, minimum three leg parlay required. Refund issues as a non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Max refund $5 unless otherwise specified. Restrictions apply, including token expiration. See terms at sportsbook.Fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com. This episode is brought to you by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what, you're going to want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn, or spooky season, whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs, or the weather's fault, you're going to want WeatherTech for American-made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather.

• 22:26Bill Simmons?

  Visit weatherTech.com today. All right, so our schedule before we get to the rest of the games, we have Houston at Kansas City. That's an ESPN game on Saturday. It's the first one. We need a name for the round two first game on Saturday. It's not a shaky's game, but it's a, it's a better restaurant that.

• 22:47Bill Simmons?

  You know, you can probably rent a table for, get a table for like 20, 25. You wouldn't exactly have your wedding reception there, but it's serviceable and solid. It's kind of exciting, but not totally. I don't, I still don't want to insult any possible sponsors we might get, but.

• 23:02Speaker 02

  Well, Houston. Houston was in Shakey's and now they're in this one. So it's like Shakey's opened like a pop up. Um, you know, and like, uh, somewhere, you know, and it's like in a cool area, maybe. I don't know. There's still, it's still the first Saturday game.

• 23:18Bill Simmons?

  Kyle says the Texas Roadhouse game. Texas Roadhouses are fun.

• 23:22Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's good.

• 23:23Bill Simmons?

  I was going to say the Bianco pizza game, but I don't want Bianco to be mad at me. Cause Bianco could do like a pizza pop up, but you might take that personally.

• 23:30Speaker 02

  Right.

• 23:31Bill Simmons?

  Even though I'm complimenting it, cause I love Bianco pizza. Houston at KC ESPN, then Saturday night, Washington at Detroit.

• 23:40Bill Simmons?

  Sunday, NBC. Either Minnesota or the Rams playing in Philadelphia. So we get Collinsworth in Philadelphia. Oh, Mike, it's so cold. My nipples are frozen, Mike. I can't even feel my nipples.

• 23:56Speaker 02

  Can I feel your nipples, Mike?

• 23:57Bill Simmons?

  Cause I can't feel it. I have no feeling, Mike.

• 24:00Speaker 02

  That's not a night game, huh? So they're doing that three, three Eastern on Sunday. And then Romo Nance get the, the good one, the great one.

• 24:10Bill Simmons?

  Baltimore at Buffalo. So the storylines I guess would be.

• 24:16Bill Simmons?

  KC going for the three-peat. It officially starts now.

• 24:21Bill Simmons?

  Jaden Daniels and the exciting rejuvenated Washington commanders. Against the team that's really been America's team this year, the Detroit Lions, where they've just been on every week. We like watching them. We know all the characters at this point. Dan Campbell's like the dad in a Friday sitcom.

• 24:39Bill Simmons?

  Then I don't know what's more fun, Minnesota, Philadelphia or Rams, Philadelphia? Probably Minnesota, Philadelphia, right? For the history of some of the games they've had.

• 24:49Speaker 02

  I guess it would have to be. I'm a little down on Philadelphia.

• 24:50Bill Simmons?

  Minnesota's never won the Super Bowl.

• 24:53Speaker 02

  Do you feel like Philadelphia is gonna make every game shitty now? No matter who plays them?

• 24:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, well, so hold that thought for 30 seconds. And then Baltimore, Buffalo is the

• 25:01Speaker 02

  Great.

• 25:01Bill Simmons?

  That's it. That's what's the sad thing. You rarely get this. You get this in basketball sometimes.

• 25:07Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 25:07Bill Simmons?

  You rarely get this in the NFL where it's like, we've argued about this all year. I think it's been a fun argument. I don't feel like it ever degenerated anything bad. I'm still not positive who I think the MVP is. Like I left the weekend. I'm like, I don't, I, both of those guys were awesome. I don't, I still don't know who the MVP was.

• 25:24Speaker 02

  They're excellent. I'll, I'll stand by Josh Allen. But again, you can't really be mad at what's going on if some, some, one or the other wins it. I'll say, it seems like Lamar has a little more help with Derrick Henry, but other than that, they did beat Buffalo. They beat them pretty good. Buffalo beat the one seed. You can go either way.

• 25:44Bill Simmons?

  All right. The, uh, the game before the good game was Packers Eagles, which was a classic Philadelphia win where they're up 10-0 and their fans are just complaining. And the game has no flow. Uh, you don't really know, understand what's going on. They, the game, I actually watched with a couple Eagles fans today and like they're cutting A.J. Brown. He's reading a book at one point because he's pissed off. He's not getting the ball. Everyone's like, what's wrong with Hertz? Is he healthy? What's going on with him? And, uh, they just kind of limped their way to a convincing win that was never in doubt. And they went by double digits and then you lead the game and you go, what just happened? Are the Eagles good? I'm not, it's just was typical.

• 26:25Speaker 02

  Yeah. And I, I hated the, this is the one I'm gonna get, you know, salty about because it's the one I lost, but I had Green Bay plus the points and. I wouldn't say, you know, Washington deserved to win as a road team. Fine. None of the other road teams showed up, right? Like Denver, Green Bay, you can't make a case for any of the Pittsburgh. But get that kickoff right, man. Just get that right. It's all about momentum when you're on the road. If you're gonna lose a call, if you're gonna lose the opening kickoff, you're really kinda screwed there. And I feel like there were enough replays, including the overhead to show.

• 26:59Bill Simmons?

  Oh, you're going here. Oh, I like this. Okay.

• 27:02Speaker 02

  I'm not a ref killer. Every time the Chiefs games are decided by something close, I'm like, ah, it's hard to call it regular speed. But if you're able to replay something and you have all those angles and you have that overhead, he had it for like a two Mississippi cow. Like, is it easier now to just start digging your way through the earth? To come out the other end? Is that easier to come out with the ball than it is to come up from a pile above the ground? I don't know. I don't like that. But anyway, I had to get that off my chest.

• 27:30Bill Simmons?

  They've really made it seem like it's now a reality show where it's like, uh, season 41 of The Challenge. Just put 10 guys in a pile. Whoever has the ball, when we pull everybody apart, they get the ball. I, I texted you a couple of times over the weekend. I watch football every weekend. I feel like I understand all the rules. I still don't understand what an intentional grounding is. CJ Stroud, that was one of the biggest plays in that Chargers game. It just seemed like a cut and dry intentional grounding. And they're like, no, I got it over the line of scrimmage and he was out of the pocket. I was like, he was out of the pocket?

• 28:03Speaker 02

  Who cares?

• 28:04Bill Simmons?

  He was two feet to the left. How was he out of the pocket? It just seemed like an automatic, he definitely did an intentional grounding because he was about to get sacked. So they said it wasn't. And then I always felt like if the guy clearly had the ball in the pile before that he disappeared into the pile, usually the guy gets the ball back.

• 28:21Speaker 02

  Of course.

• 28:22Bill Simmons?

  But this time they're like, no, he didn't totally have it yet. It's like, he didn't seem like he had it.

• 28:27Speaker 02

  It also goes against all their crap about player safety. Like, oh, really? We're gonna keep this going past the whistle? Because you definitely, obviously blew the whistle. And then that, then this guy got it like torn from his, uh, clutches. So, I don't know. Anyway, they, Green Bay didn't score enough to win that game and every receiver was hurt. And I don't know who they were throwing to. So, good for you, Philly. But they didn't play, they didn't play great either.

• 28:50Bill Simmons?

  I don't understand. I've said this over and over again, watching them. I don't understand their offense. I don't understand why it's so slow and deliberate and has no pace and has no pep and just seems laborious at all times. I don't get it. I don't under. We were joking about in the first quarter, we're watching like, here we go. 39 seconds till the next Saquon handoff.

• 29:09Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 29:10Bill Simmons?

  This will be 37 seconds and it's just, they play with no pace. They, they play with no unpredictability at all. They never try to put any sort of pressure. You'd think like, if you have Saquon as a running back, with Hertz's ability to run and pass and the receivers they have, you could almost go no huddle and just put a defense, you know, put them on their backpedal. They don't do anything. They're just like, don't do all your subs. Get all your guys in and out. Do what you need to do. Um, I don't get it.

• 29:36Speaker 02

  For the most part, as long as they don't get in a third and long situation, they're fine. If they're third and three or third and one, they can line up for the tush push on third and one and he can back out and throw it long like we saw. Or hand it to Barclay. Like it is a huge, huge advantage. What the Ravens do, what the Bills do, and specifically what the Eagles do with the tush push and third and short. I mean, cause you're going to convert on fourth, but yeah, everything this team does bugs me. Now Barclay, enough with the sliding down. You're an unselfish player. Should you be a social worker? Maybe like, score touchdowns. People are betting on you to score touchdowns. Enough already.

• 30:10Bill Simmons?

  You sound like the over.

• 30:12Speaker 02

  It's not like you're up one and you don't want to go up eight because they're going to get the ball. Like just, just finish it. It's crazy already. So I don't know.

• 30:20Bill Simmons?

  I actually rewound it. It seemed like the D back had an angle on maybe could have chased him down 30 yards downfield. But yeah, he, he definitely slid a little early. It was, there was a couple of moments today with covers and over unders because you had that play. You had Matt Collins about to go, he's setting up the Bills on the two yard line.

• 30:39Speaker 02

  Terrible.

• 30:40Bill Simmons?

  Next touchdown covers every tease and adjusted over if you had 41, 42, whatever.

• 30:46Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 30:46Bill Simmons?

  And then what was the other one? Was that the Baltimore Pittsburgh just ending at 42 points? That, that felt like that could have been higher, right?

• 30:54Speaker 02

  Yeah. The Steelers had like 200 yards in third quarter and then there was no points at all.

• 30:59Bill Simmons?

  The Chargers Texans game somehow going over.

• 31:02Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 31:03Bill Simmons?

  What were the odds of that?

• 31:04Speaker 02

  It was like 7-6. I mean, the first, I don't know when you want to talk about that. One more thing on Hertz though. His three winning playoff games, 131 yards against the Packers, 121 yards passing against the Niners, 154 against the Giants. Like, I don't know if we've ever seen anything like this. I know he's not asked to do that much and, and, and he doesn't, and they went.

• 31:24Bill Simmons?

  Right. Well, and he's not even like when they're celebrating at the end, he seems on the side. He's such a polarizing guy within the Eagles.

• 31:32Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 31:32Bill Simmons?

  Like, I know a lot of Eagles fans, none of them have a handle on him at all, but yet they've been winning and they've been successful with them, right? But you watch and it's just, I don't know, there, there's, when you look at like what we saw from Allen and Mahomes in somewhat similar offensive situations from a weapons standpoint, and they're just so electric. And I guess Hertz just doesn't have that level in him.

• 31:58Speaker 02

  Yeah. When he shoots off to the side, he'll take a hard hit for a two yard gain, right? Like, I feel like, I'm like, hey, cut it up. What are you, what are you doing? I don't know. I'm not gonna, whatever. He's gone to the Super Bowl and, and everything, but, uh, just read a book on the sideline every now and then, Jalen. Come on.

• 32:15Bill Simmons?

  Read Inner Excellence, but borrow a copy from A.J. Brown. I was thinking Eagles fans, because they've, the team has been successful.

• 32:22Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 32:23Bill Simmons?

  But they also love complaining about them and I don't really blame them, but it's like that, it's like the, the friend who's married to the guy that you always feel like they're going to get divorced and they're, they're never divorced, but they're always, she's always complaining about him. That's kind of the Eagles fans with this.

• 32:37Speaker 02

  Yeah. You think they'd root for the Panthers all these years. To a point where you're like, oh, does your team suck? I mean, you keep saying they do. I don't know.

• 32:43Bill Simmons?

  Didn't you go 13 and 4? Um, Green Bay was kind of the hipster Super Bowl contender this year.

• 32:52Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 32:53Bill Simmons?

  They were like the alternate pick. I know we had money on them. We both loved Detroit with the one seed and some Super Bowl bets, but then Green Bay was kind of the, well, here's plan B. If the Detroit thing doesn't work out, they ended up going 0-6 against Philly and Minnesota and Detroit.

• 33:07Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 33:08Bill Simmons?

  And, uh, this was more alarming to me. I'm throwing out the Brazil game in week one because that game was stupid. They're playing it and I, I don't understand what that field was. In the other games against those three teams, they fell behind by 21 to Minnesota, by 17 to Minnesota. They fell behind 21 to Detroit. They were down 10 to Detroit and they were down 10 today, 10-0. This was them against any good team. They just immediately spotted 10, 12, 17 points, whatever it was. And there was a couple of times where they would kind of come back. What changed today was they lost Watson before the game.

• 33:45Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 33:45Bill Simmons?

  And then they lose two more weapons. So they couldn't even do the comeback thing that Love was pretty good at. I thought Love had a really bad year for what my expectations were. If my expectations were an A-, I thought he was like a C+.

• 33:58Speaker 02

  I agree. I don't know when, I'm trying to think when we loved them. When did we fall in love with that team? When were they peaking? Was it six weeks ago? Because you're right.

• 34:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it was five, six weeks ago.

• 34:08Speaker 02

  They never really beat the good teams. But they never really put together good, I guess they were just beating up the crap.

• 34:13Bill Simmons?

  No, they had, they beat up Miami on Thanksgiving. There was that Thanksgiving and the week after. We should remember this for next year because there was a moment where Green Bay looked like the most dangerous NFC team. Pittsburgh looked like they had the one seed locked up. They had already beaten Baltimore. They had a two-game lead. They, I think, were 10-3. And it just felt like they were going to be 13-3. They never won again. They were 10-3 and

• 34:38Speaker 02

  Right.

• 34:39Bill Simmons?

  And that was it. They, when, I think they lost their, they lost their last five and just completely fell apart. And we'll, we can talk about that later. But yeah, it was, those were the two teams that I think really fell off. And then conversely, Washington came back. I think because Daniels got healthy was probably the main reason for it. And then Houston died. And then just randomly their defense came back at some point during that Chargers game, which we're going to talk about in a second. But I think those were, those were kind of the variance teams. I guess the Chiefs might have been the other one because the Chiefs were looking so creaky there. And we were like, this offense, they're just not going to be able to score 20 points anymore. And then they gradually figured that out. Everything else just kind of went toward. What we thought.

• 35:24Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's funny like after Saturday, I'm like, well, have we learned anything about the Chargers and Steelers? Other than it's the same team we've been looking at for eight years, right? You can't really trust them. They Steelers knuckleball their way to the playoffs without a good quarterback and then don't show up. I don't know what you want to talk about next, but the Chargers were just brutal too. But, um,

• 35:44Bill Simmons?

  Well, one, one thing on Green Bay, cause I want to move to Bills and Steelers. I thought their D was good and I thought they did a good job today. I thought Jacobs was good.

• 35:53Speaker 02

  Good Earl Campbell run, his old jersey coming apart. It's fun.

• 35:58Bill Simmons?

  I like Watson as a player, but I don't think it should be a dramatic difference. I like their tight ends, Kraft and Musgrave. I don't know what, I don't remember, I don't know if Musgrave was hurt or if he played or what happened, but, um, and then they lost.

• 36:09Speaker 02

  Dynamite doing the tush push, their version of tush push. Hey, I don't want to make excuses for them because they got beat, probably shouldn't have won, but that kickoff is a huge moment. You can't, you can't turn it over on the road and you can't miss field goals. It's a bad sign. Goals, Denver missed a field goal. They weren't going to win that game.

• 36:25Bill Simmons?

  If you pause button a playoff game and the road team is getting the opening kickoff and fumbles on the kickoff. It's almost like the live bet. You almost want to bet everything on the other team, no matter, it just feels like the worst omen possible for the rest of the game. But the bottom line is Jordan Love wasn't good. And there's probably some reasons for it that have to do with the, some of the weapons being gone, but he made some really bad throws. And I, I never felt like last year, I, especially in the playoffs, it felt like he was elevating. I didn't feel that way at all in, in down the stretch here.

• 36:56Speaker 02

  You know, I guess the bottom line, the message is don't fall in love with these quarterbacks too much. Jordan Love, CJ Stroud, even though he won, not as good a year. Drake May, you know, I could go on and on.

• 37:08Bill Simmons?

  Come on.

• 37:08Speaker 02

  Just don't fall in love with these guys.

• 37:10Bill Simmons?

  Let's, uh, let's take one more break and then we'll do Bills and Steelers.

• 37:18Bill Simmons?

  This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by State Farm. Every football player brings something different to the field. Maybe they have a cannon arm, speed, power. Maybe they have their own podcast. That being said, no two players are exactly alike. And the same is true off the field. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you. So they can help personalize coverage for your life and budget. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. This episode is brought to you by Workday. Guessing is for game shows, not your business, especially when your margin for error is zero. Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance and IT with a deep understanding of your organization's context and guardrails.

• 38:01Bill Simmons?

  So every AI action is permission aware, giving you accuracy 24/7 and the ability to not just get work done, but get it done right. It's a new Workday. All right, so I'm lumping Bills, Broncos and Steelers, Ravens together because this whole season-

• 38:18Speaker 02

  Because everyone else did on a teaser.

• 38:20Bill Simmons?

  Right, because we did it on teaser. It was the, we call it the anchor tease or the anchor parlay, whatever you wanted. My favorite was either these eight or eight and a half point teases you could do with them on Fanduel and basically put anyone else you want, move the line eight points, eight and a half points. It's right around even odds. And it just, it just seemed like a free way to gain eight points with everybody. It won with Tampa, didn't win with the Chargers, won with Houston, it won with Washington.

• 38:49Speaker 02

  I thought we were gonna lose Fanduel as a sponsor. I was like, is a favorite ever gonna lose again?

• 38:54Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 38:55Speaker 02

  And then when Tampa was winning tonight, I don't even know, but yeah, they gave it to us.

• 39:00Bill Simmons?

  Look, there's a lot of storylines for the year. Washington and Jayden Daniels, the Lions, the Vikings coming out of nowhere. The Chiefs going for a three-peat. Like, there's a lot going on. But this Josh versus Lamar thing ended up being the most fun thing to argue about. And it never, I know, as I said earlier, I never thought it got ugly. Cause both guys have been great and what's cool is both guys peaking at the right time. So today Buffalo rushes 44 for 210.

• 39:28Bill Simmons?

  And experimented with putting like the sixth offensive lineman out there as a tight end and just like bully balled uh their way through the first half and then Baltimore yesterday 50 carries for 299 Buffalo had the ball 41 minutes Baltimore at 39 33 so two teams that love having the ball running it down your throats playing each other with two magical quarterbacks who also in the playoffs run the ball more this is an this is like one of the best games of the decade I'm so excited for it

• 40:01Speaker 02

  It's an incredible advantage like I said these two teams have even more than like Detroit like I'm I'm wowed by Detroit's offense too but when you have like Josh Allen like rolling left it just looks weird variety quarterback rolling left and he could slide slither his way for like seven yards and then Lamar did that I think he probably had like five of the first eight carries against the Steelers I'm like oh this game's over too they're done too so yeah when it when they go against each other I I was so nervous about that Buffalo game Simmons I'm like we all need this to complete a parlay I had Ohio State to start it and then anchored with these other two and the orange pants were a killer on the eyes for Denver and then they scored right away I'm like shit this is

• 40:41Bill Simmons?

  Well we knew Denver was gonna make make us sweat it out in the first quarter that was just the law there was just too much money and then I was thinking about if you tease them and Buffalo could win by one but you still don't cover the tease there are all these different ways but then Buffalo was like we got this I think combining the two of them I think they're the the two best how do you stop this offenses yeah we've had in a while and I'm not I'm not ready to talk about them historically and one of them might score seven points next week but right just when you're watching the moment in these playoff games now that these quarterbacks don't have to worry about saving their bodies to the playoffs and can actually run and try to

• 41:22Bill Simmons?

  do stuff Daniels was like this too with Washington I just don't know what the move is when it's like third and four It's like, it's like you almost have to guess what the play is Tecmo Bull style. Charge Allen, he's still gonna stiff arm the first guy, roll out and try to hit somebody side armed as he's rolling. And then Lamar is just like, he's like covered in grease.

• 41:45Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 41:46Bill Simmons?

  Even if you stop him, he's going by you. So I don't, I can't wait to watch this.

• 41:50Speaker 02

  Romo said it's like, you could have a spy on these guys, but they're just better than all the spies. They're faster, they're, you know, they have a better keener sense of the field than all the spies. And it's just tough. And you look at the Steelers, whose defense ended up being just average, right? But I was thinking, wow, if they can't stop Lamar, if this can't be like a 17-15 type game that they're used to, forget it. Who the hell's gonna do it?

• 42:14Bill Simmons?

  Allen had a play in the first half when he was going around the corner and the guy knew what he was doing. And it was, I think it was a third down and the guy basically beat him to the spot and Allen just went around him. Went down the sideline and got eight, took a guy on, knocked him over too.

• 42:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, the defender like put his jersey down over the puddle so that Allen could step over it. It's getting ridiculous, but.

• 42:36Bill Simmons?

  But, but it's just, both of those guys just have these, oh my God. How do you stop this? Now Baltimore might not have Zay Flowers next week. That's not nothing. Buffalo seems like they have their full team and they really feel like they've, they've every, I don't know where they got this offensive line from that. You know, we did a lot of prep before the year. I remember liking certain things about their team and definitely they had, an offensive line was one of the strengths. Now it feels like one of the best three offensive lines in the league.

• 43:04Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 43:04Bill Simmons?

  So.

• 43:06Speaker 02

  And James Cook is very good and they don't rely on one guy. It's not Stefan Diggs like, oh, you don't get him the ball. He's gonna be mad and he's your not, no, you look at the box score, they'll end up having like eight pass catchers and.

• 43:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, he's had like 15 touchdown catchers this year.

• 43:20Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 43:20Bill Simmons?

  I guess the difference is Baltimore is built to stop the run. They're really good at it. They're number one in the league. Buffalo's not. So if you're gonna say, all right, both of these teams are gonna go bully ball, I think Baltimore has a better chance to do Baltimore yesterday as they broke Pittsburgh's spirit completely and totally. They had that 13 run 85 yard touchdown drive where they did not pass, which is just they fuck you. Yeah. Honestly, that's just, you're just pulling it out at that point and just and waving it around like a fucking lasso. 13 runs in a row. Hey, hey, Tomlin, have some of this. Like, it's such a fuck you. It really is. Like, not one pass. That's just like, you're

• 44:02Bill Simmons?

  like, let's break these guys. It's, they're, they're off. Hey, he's telling Harbaugh, like, hey, I was thinking about just calling runs over and over again until we score, just to fuck with these guys. He's like, yeah, do it. God. Yeah. Go for it. So.

• 44:16Speaker 02

  It worked. And Tomlin, I don't know. I mean, that's six games in the playoffs, he's gone down by 21 or more. I don't know what you, what you think about this guy. And then I look at the quarterback situation. It's like, this team doesn't have a chance unless the moon ball of Pickens works. Has to work like four times a game now for them to even have a, any kind of chance.

• 44:34Bill Simmons?

  Well, we were betting on them over and over again, and they were overachieving, looking great. And the Philly game was when it turned. They got their asses kicked by Philly, and we all said, ah, stayed at the craps table a game too long on that one. It felt like that three days and 11 days, three games in 11 days, kind of broke them. I was thinking about possible excuses for them. The three days and 11 days somehow didn't break Baltimore, Casey or Houston. They all like gained strength of it, but I guess Pittsburgh could blame it. Russell Wilson, maybe is like a house guest that just kind of stays too long. It's like fun to have in the guest room for two months.

• 45:12Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 45:13Bill Simmons?

  Month three, he's just leaving the fridge open and you're like, oh, man, this guy.

• 45:17Speaker 02

  Yeah, gotta get off the couch. All right.

• 45:20Bill Simmons?

  Tomlin, 18 years, the 18 year itch. I don't know if that's, is that a thing?

• 45:25Speaker 02

  I think it is. Yeah. Look it up.

• 45:27Bill Simmons?

  I have one more I could add to that.

• 45:29Speaker 02

  Yeah, let's hear it.

• 45:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you called them the best AFC team back like December 2nd or so. That might be another one. They were. They were the one seed. Was that wrong?

• 45:38Speaker 02

  Yeah, you were wrong. Yeah. Come on.

• 45:40Bill Simmons?

  Well, in the moment, was that wrong?

• 45:43Speaker 02

  Sure, yeah.

• 45:43Bill Simmons?

  My whole point was they're the best team right now. December or whatever.

• 45:48Speaker 02

  They weren't better than Buffalo.

• 45:50Bill Simmons?

  I believe.

• 45:50Speaker 02

  All right, okay. It's fine. I'm not blaming you.

• 45:53Bill Simmons?

  That's fine. I'm gonna wipe my tears of my I went 27 and 5 and over under's handkerchief.

• 45:59Speaker 02

  Oh, wow. You have that?

• 46:01Bill Simmons?

  So I looked at their last six playoff losses for Pittsburgh.

• 46:06Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 46:08Bill Simmons?

  Gave up 36 points to the Pats, 45 to the Jaguars, 48 to the Browns, 42 to the Chiefs, 31 to Buffalo last week, and then 28 to the Ravens this week, which really could have been more if the Ravens wanted to score more. Tom was supposed to be this like awesome defensive coach. We always talk about the ugly 18 to 16 games and then January it just goes away. What happens?

• 46:36Speaker 02

  I don't know, but I also know they don't have the luxury of what the Patriots did, right? Because they're not ever gonna be in a position to draft a great quarterback. Right? So if as long as this streak gets, oh, my God, he did it. He went, they went over eight and a half wins again. You win on that? That's great. And then it's a first round exit in the playoffs. That's not gonna change anytime soon, but now you're right. The margins are getting, are getting thick. Like, the season is just too long for them. They're losing by too many points in the playoffs. I don't, I don't know what happens to that guy.

• 47:06Bill Simmons?

  I don't know what happened to their defense. I thought the first two months, I thought they had the best defense in the league.

• 47:12Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 47:13Bill Simmons?

  As the, DJ Watt got hurt at one point and it never felt like he was totally the same. They had some secondary injuries, but the first two months, they were like the flying around defense and that I call, who was calling him out? Who was the announcer for that Pittsburgh game? It was, uh, not Collinsworth.

• 47:29Speaker 02

  This week?

• 47:29Bill Simmons?

  Oh, it's Herb Street.

• 47:31Speaker 02

  Herb Street, yeah.

• 47:32Bill Simmons?

  Was, you know, he's not exactly like Mr. Super Critical. He was like calling them out in the first half. It's like, it's a playoff game. Where's the fight from this team?

• 47:41Speaker 02

  Make a play, he kept saying, yeah.

• 47:42Bill Simmons?

  Something weird happened. I don't know what happened with this team, but whatever we saw the last five weeks was not what we saw in the first three months from them.

• 47:50Speaker 02

  Yeah, I don't want to say he's losing the locker room, but this is the closest it looks to that in a long time.

• 47:56Bill Simmons?

  Would you trade Mike McCarthy in a second round pick for him?

• 47:59Speaker 02

  I was, I gotta say, I was a little annoyed that the Patriots signed Vrabel. I'm like, oh, man, Tomlin could be available for them. They just waited like 48 hours.

• 48:09Bill Simmons?

  For the Pats?

• 48:10Speaker 02

  Yes, for the Patriots.

• 48:11Bill Simmons?

  The Steelers, they famously had, only had three coaches in 130 years or whatever the thing is.

• 48:17Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 48:18Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. I think they go in for the, after the season meeting with the owner and they're like, what happened this year, Mike? And he's like, I don't know, our quarter, we paid $3 million for our quarterbacks.

• 48:27Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 48:28Bill Simmons?

  And I won 10 games.

• 48:29Speaker 02

  So what's the, what's the quarterback situation? Not that I care too much, but what, what, what possibly can they do?

• 48:35Bill Simmons?

  I know what I would do. I would trade the first pick for McCarthy.

• 48:39Speaker 02

  But then you still have Russell Wilson or Justin Fields and McCarthy.

• 48:43Bill Simmons?

  No, no, not my, not, I'm saying J.J. McCarthy.

• 48:47Speaker 02

  Oh, okay.

• 48:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, not, not Mike McCarthy.

• 48:50Speaker 02

  No.

• 48:50Bill Simmons?

  I was like, what? Trade a night round pick for Mike McCarthy.

• 48:52Speaker 02

  I know it's been a tough week, Bill, but what?

• 48:54Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 48:54Speaker 02

  This is a.

• 48:56Bill Simmons?

  No, I would trade for J.J. McCarthy.

• 48:58Speaker 02

  I got you. Interesting.

• 49:00Bill Simmons?

  Now, if Darnold shits the bed again tomorrow, he might not be available anymore.

• 49:04Speaker 02

  Right, right, right.

• 49:05Bill Simmons?

  Darnold could go from, two weeks ago, we were talking about, why won't they just pay him now? And now, two weeks, if he sucks again, it'd be like, ah, well, at least they have J.J. McCarthy.

• 49:14Speaker 02

  There's not a ton of options for them. That's not a bad thought.

• 49:18Bill Simmons?

  The other guy, they could trade for Joe Milton. I'll send him some week 18 Buffalo Pats game tape. Joe Milton lighting up the bill second string, pretending, he could pretend it was the first string. Chargers, Texans.

• 49:32Speaker 02

  Chargers are up. This was beyond shaky's, right? This was, this was, we don't, haven't gone in a while, but if we did, like, people would be chucking their mojo potatoes at the screen for the first hour. And the, and the manager would threaten to turn the game to reruns on Telemundo.

• 49:46Bill Simmons?

  It was AI shaky's. It was, AI created a shaky's broadcast.

• 49:51Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 49:52Bill Simmons?

  Six, nothing, Chargers are up after they just gave away possible touchdowns on two straight drives. The Texans are an absolute mess. Third and 16, they snapped the ball over Stroud's head. And it seems like it's either gonna be a safety, touchdown, something great. This is right after the intentional grounding they don't call. And he picks it up, rolls out, everyone in charge just stops, throws it to midfield, and immediately turns it to a different quarterback. And from that point on, the Texans never look back.

• 50:21Speaker 02

  I my best bet was the Texans over nineteen and a half and you were making fun of me like, how's Texans over three and a half points looking and I I deserved it. They were terrible. I still don't think I picked the right side. They won thirty two to twelve and I still don't think I got it right.

• 50:35Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if there was a right side.

• 50:37Speaker 02

  Oh, man.

• 50:38Bill Simmons?

  Wrong sides.

• 50:39Speaker 02

  And Herbert's so weird because he'll throw a twenty two yard completion to McConkey and like, wow, that's the best throw of a football I've seen in a long time.

• 50:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, what a cannon.

• 50:48Speaker 02

  Yeah, four interceptions later. I think we were gonna rank his top ten bad passes, but they ended up too many. We can't get to it.

• 50:56Bill Simmons?

  So was that for you? Is that a Houston is so resilient?

• 51:02Bill Simmons?

  They're the nobody believes in us game? Or is that a we might never get there with Justin Herbert game?

• 51:09Speaker 02

  Oh, man, I think it can I say both? I'm not allowed to say both.

• 51:12Bill Simmons?

  You can say both.

• 51:13Speaker 02

  I'm gonna say Houston, primarily Houston, and they scared me last year. Remember, that's what sent me on a tailspin and some others when we bet against them. Thought the Browns were better team last year, right? When they went to Houston and Houston throttled them. I was like, you know what? The Chargers tend to have, I mean, now you got this quarterback, going back to Herbert. He's had, what does he had like two teams that had three interceptions and he couldn't, the three turnovers and he couldn't beat them?

• 51:40Bill Simmons?

  That's the thing. Everything was going their way and he still couldn't close the game. Five years, zero playoff wins. He's three games over five hundred. Do you include the playoff games? He's one game over five hundred. I was actually researching quarterbacks who never won a playoff game and the best one ever is YA Tittle.

• 52:02Speaker 02

  He never won one, huh?

• 52:03Bill Simmons?

  Never won one.

• 52:04Speaker 02

  Much as we heard about him. Yeah, interesting.

• 52:06Bill Simmons?

  Had some, was in some big spots, apparently never won one, and then Andy Dalton. What's the other one?

• 52:12Speaker 02

  Andy Dalton never won a Shaky's game?

• 52:14Bill Simmons?

  Never one. Oh, oh, for five.

• 52:18Bill Simmons?

  But the famous one was Stafford. First twelve years, oh, and three in the playoffs, never won anything. So maybe this is a Stafford type thing, but it's really unusual for a guy this talented to not win. So you have that.

• 52:34Bill Simmons?

  And then you have, you know, we used to joke about the Delome. The Delome was, was four picks with a, with the fumble. And then the Delome, the full Delome, I think was five picks with a fumble and one of them had to be a pick six or something like that.

• 52:50Speaker 02

  So close, so close.

• 52:52Bill Simmons?

  I went back and I looked quarterbacks in the last 50 years with, uh, with four picks and a fumble in a playoff game. And it's only 15.

• 53:05Speaker 02

  And 15, that's a lot.

• 53:07Bill Simmons?

  15, but think like people used to throw interceptions way more, way more in the old days.

• 53:12Speaker 02

  I don't think they passed as much, I guess.

• 53:13Bill Simmons?

  Todd Marinovich had one, Jim Kelly, Richard Todd, Joe Ferguson, Tommy Kramer. The, the one we watched together, the first Super Bowl we watched together, Tampa, Oakland.

• 53:25Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah.

• 53:26Bill Simmons?

  Rich Gannon, five picks, three pick sixes. So that was a, I, I guess the full Gannon is, is a five picks.

• 53:34Speaker 02

  Sounds better anyway, I think, yeah.

• 53:36Bill Simmons?

  So only three guys have thrown five picks with an interception, Delome, Gannon and Kramer. The last two to do it were Brian Hoyer in 2016 and Carson Palmer, the same year.

• 53:50Speaker 02

  Right, I do remember that.

• 53:51Bill Simmons?

  The four with the, uh, he had the pick six.

• 53:55Speaker 02

  I'll, I'll say this about Herbert, cause I don't want to bury him completely yet, but, um, you know, I don't know that Harbaugh's as psyched as he was a year ago, right? I don't, I don't know, we could, we could stop the comparisons to Joe Burrow for sure. Fine, keep comparing them to Tua, that, that's good, but I, I don't know, if you're, if you're Harbaugh, what's your thought process now? It's like, oh shit, this is going to take a lot more work than I thought, right?

• 54:21Bill Simmons?

  I think you moved pretty quickly into, I gotta get this guy more than one receiver. There's a nerd case for blaming the offensive coordinator and the play calling, but the, you know, the football nerds love Justin Herbert, no matter what he does.

• 54:34Speaker 02

  Right.

• 54:35Bill Simmons?

  Here's the bigger question to me. Quarterbacks you'd rather have.

• 54:41Bill Simmons?

  For the next eight years than Justin Herbert. So take it 2033.

• 54:47Speaker 02

  It's really just Dak.

• 54:48Bill Simmons?

  I'll list them to you and you tell me when to stop.

• 54:50Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 54:51Bill Simmons?

  Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow. Take all four of those, right?

• 54:56Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 54:57Bill Simmons?

  Would you take Jaden Daniels?

• 54:59Speaker 02

  Uh, sure, right now, but I'm, you know, I'm gonna be hesitant with the whole CJ Stroud thing. But yes, right now.

• 55:07Bill Simmons?

  CJ Stroud?

• 55:09Speaker 02

  I don't know.

• 55:11Bill Simmons?

  So toss up for you.

• 55:12Speaker 02

  That's close. That's maybe where you got me. Wait a minute, there's not more that's, that's.

• 55:16Bill Simmons?

  There is more.

• 55:17Speaker 02

  Oh.

• 55:18Bill Simmons?

  Drake May?

• 55:20Speaker 02

  No, come on.

• 55:23Speaker 02

  Come on, let's see a little something else.

• 55:25Bill Simmons?

  If the Chargers are for Justin Herbert. For Drake May, straight up. Fuck yeah. What are you talking about? I'd rather have Drake May on a rookie contract, 100 times out of 100.

• 55:35Speaker 02

  You've not a good, whoever said you were a good businessman?

• 55:37Bill Simmons?

  Here's an interesting one.

• 55:40Bill Simmons?

  Mayfield.

• 55:41Speaker 02

  Oh.

• 55:43Bill Simmons?

  Do you rather have Mayfield or Justin Herbert? He's been in the league since what, 2017?

• 55:48Speaker 02

  Eight's a lot of years. If you told me four or five, I think it's easier.

• 55:52Bill Simmons?

  So you'd go four years, you'd say yes?

• 55:53Speaker 02

  I think so, yeah. I love Baker.

• 55:56Bill Simmons?

  Dak, you wouldn't say eight years, but if I gave you, if I said four, you would take Dak for four?

• 56:02Speaker 02

  I think I would, yes.

• 56:04Bill Simmons?

  Darnold?

• 56:07Speaker 02

  It's so funny.

• 56:07Bill Simmons?

  Oh, you paused.

• 56:08Speaker 02

  We all have to wait till tomorrow to say.

• 56:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 56:12Speaker 02

  I don't wanna look, I don't wanna look foolish. Yeah, I'd say no, probably, but.

• 56:15Bill Simmons?

  Would you rather have Jared Goff or Justin Herbert?

• 56:18Speaker 02

  Uh.

• 56:19Bill Simmons?

  I'd rather have Herbert.

• 56:20Speaker 02

  Herbert, yeah.

• 56:22Bill Simmons?

  Would you rather have Caleb Williams or Justin Herbert?

• 56:24Speaker 02

  Herbert right now. Why would I, yeah.

• 56:27Bill Simmons?

  Okay. So that's it. The point of that exercise is, as bad as he was in that game, and he's never won a playoff game. He's still one of the top 10 QB assets, no matter what your preference is, you're still talking to yourself.

• 56:40Speaker 02

  Yeah, cuz well, it'll get you 10 wins and maybe you can get lucky in the playoffs. And they were not lucky or good yesterday.

• 56:47Bill Simmons?

  I don't love the adversity piece with him. Like when it feels like when the wheels start coming off, it doesn't get better for him.

• 56:58Speaker 02

  Right.

• 56:58Bill Simmons?

  You know, it feels when it's going good, he seems great.

• 57:05Bill Simmons?

  And then it goes the other way.

• 57:07Speaker 02

  Some of those no's, I would rather take some of those guys down 10 than Herbert, for sure.

• 57:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 57:13Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 57:17Bill Simmons?

  All right, let's take a break and then we'll do guess the lines.

• 57:23Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun? Sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead, but what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully your team doesn't go to Cancun. 1-2-3 Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save, savings vary. All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV. You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you are live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching. Just sit down and turn on Fire TV.

• 58:08Bill Simmons?

  Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary.

• 58:15Bill Simmons?

  All right, so we're gonna do guess the lines round two. We only have three games that have the lines. We're gonna come back Monday night after Minnesota and the Rams and do a little short, maybe 25 minute pod where we talk about the game and then guess the line because we like to guess every line. It's not our fault. They changed, made it a three day round one.

• 58:33Speaker 02

  I love doing the pod with you, but yeah, they, it was a little tidier when everything was done by Sunday night. And also, make that game in Vegas. Move everything to Vegas. When in doubt, move everything to Vegas. What's Glendale?

• 58:46Bill Simmons?

  Which game?

• 58:47Speaker 02

  Oh, the Rams Vikings.

• 58:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, why isn't that in Vegas?

• 58:52Speaker 02

  It's an easier drive to Vegas if you're in LA. If it's a football game, if it's a bachelor party, if it's an intervention, just move it to Vegas. It's an easy thought.

• 59:02Bill Simmons?

  They love Glendale. They love how like middle of the road between the two teams it is for some reason. It's like we put it in Arizona. It's perfectly neutral. They, the NFL just feels like it's the most neutral territory possible. I don't know. It's just, it's not the first time they've went to Glendale. I'm with you. Why not go to Vegas?

• 59:21Speaker 02

  Go to Vegas. Yeah.

• 59:24Bill Simmons?

  Okay. I'll do the AFC games first.

• 59:27Speaker 02

  All right.

• 59:30Bill Simmons?

  Chiefs Texans in Kansas City.

• 59:36Bill Simmons?

  I, the only reason I was scared of Houston in that, I really liked the Chargers in that Chargers game. Houston had a whiff of nobody believes in us.

• 59:44Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 59:45Bill Simmons?

  And then you look at them more and you're like,

• 59:48Bill Simmons?

  there's a reason nobody believes in you. You guys have sucked. Like, like the, the, the only things that would make anyone believe in you are the, the models on home underdogs during the playoffs and some of the stuff housed it on the show. Like there's gambling nerd metrics that we should believe in you. But from what we've watched from a football standpoint, you guys have sucked.

• 1:00:10Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:00:10Bill Simmons?

  So I don't feel bad about missing that as a nobody believes in us. But in this game, it's going to kick up.

• 1:00:15Speaker 02

  There's always like a two and a half line that they screw you with, right? Like, oh, I just have to pick the winner here. The Chargers are better than the Texans. So, but, and so that was the one.

• 1:00:25Bill Simmons?

  You know, the thing with that game though, I really thought the Chargers offensive line was going to be able to handle the edge rushers on Houston. They have good tackles. And yet, over and over again, Houston was coming on the edge and they completely disrupted them. Yeah.

• 1:00:39Speaker 02

  Right, right, right.

• 1:00:39Bill Simmons?

  I just, I just pegged it wrong. Anyway, Chiefs Texans. I have Chiefs by nine.

• 1:00:46Speaker 02

  All right. Don't get mad, but I hit this exactly. Seven and a half.

• 1:00:50Bill Simmons?

  Wow.

• 1:00:51Speaker 02

  That's what I said.

• 1:00:53Bill Simmons?

  So I jacked it up because I thought they would not want us to tease the Chiefs.

• 1:00:59Speaker 02

  Mm hmm.

• 1:01:00Bill Simmons?

  And I thought they'd put it at nine so that even if you teased them, you still had Chiefs minus three. Chiefs seven and a half, they're basically opening the floodgates for a tease.

• 1:01:10Speaker 02

  They've done a weird disrespectful thing for the Chiefs and their lines, you know, as much as they can for a 15 win team and they've kind of done it all season long. The big thing I'm hearing is it seems like it's a disadvantage and Fandel is also treating it as a disadvantage that they've been off for two weeks. Like, oh, the Chiefs are off two weeks and they didn't play anyone week 18. So that's really two weeks. Like, yeah, they do this every year and they win the Super Bowl like every other year. So why?

• 1:01:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they have a lot of structure.

• 1:01:38Speaker 02

  Yeah. Why are we going crazy about it?

• 1:01:39Bill Simmons?

  I could understand it after week 12, week 13 range, when we were really worried about the Chiefs and it really felt like, what were they 12 and one? It felt like they could have been easily eight and five or seven and six with five different plays. I like the way they ended the season up until when they didn't have to play anymore. I thought, I thought they were more explosive. I thought Pacheco was, once he came back, that run the ball better. I just liked how they looked more.

• 1:02:04Speaker 02

  And I think they're delighted in this matchup, honestly. I don't think they want, you know, they wouldn't have been afraid of Harbaugh, but the Chargers played them well twice. I think they had a two-point loss and a seven-point loss and Harbaugh going to Kansas, you know, I think Andy Reid gets a little freaked out there, but this, they'll slap this team around, I think.

• 1:02:21Bill Simmons?

  The only case would be the Houston pass rush again. Casey's tackles aren't great. Some sort of dumb Casey first half where they have three points, you know, 20 minutes into the game and then mixing pounding the ball down their throat. I don't know.

• 1:02:41Speaker 02

  Listen.

• 1:02:42Bill Simmons?

  I'm, I'm teasing the Chiefs. I'm just telling you.

• 1:02:44Speaker 02

  You and I, I know it's been a rough week. You and I and your financial planner, we're going to sit down Tuesday, Wednesday-ish and we're going to figure out how much you want to put on the Chiefs, Ohio State money line parlay. And so you're.

• 1:02:56Bill Simmons?

  Oh, you're still in on Ohio State?

• 1:02:58Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, that's easy. So let's just do it and not have to worry about anything.

• 1:03:01Bill Simmons?

  You're not afraid of Notre Dame?

• 1:03:03Speaker 02

  No, no, no. It's mismatch. It's mismatch up front. They're going to get bullied.

• 1:03:09Bill Simmons?

  Bills Ravens is our second game. I had this all week battling back and forth between minus two and a half, minus three, and I think I'm wrong, but I have the Bills in Buffalo.

• 1:03:24Bill Simmons?

  Favored by three gets to Baltimore Ravens.

• 1:03:28Speaker 02

  It's exactly what I thought and I stand by it. Our friends at Fanduel have the Bills only favored by one and a half.

• 1:03:37Bill Simmons?

  Oh, the Tic Tac Zone.

• 1:03:39Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:03:39Bill Simmons?

  Did we see a little Flipperoo?

• 1:03:42Speaker 02

  Oh, you think the Ravens will get the nod?

• 1:03:44Bill Simmons?

  I'm just, every time we're in the 1.5 Tic Tac Zone, sometimes by Wednesday, all of a sudden it's like, wait a second, Baltimore's favored in Buffalo now.

• 1:03:55Speaker 02

  Can we talk about what this means? Like why, how they may have arrived at this? Because it doesn't really make sense to me.

• 1:04:02Bill Simmons?

  Maybe they arrived the same way I've kind of arrived mentally. I like the Ravens.

• 1:04:07Speaker 02

  You do?

• 1:04:08Bill Simmons?

  I do. I, I forgot to do this before. I had this Derrick Henry thing I was gonna do with you.

• 1:04:15Speaker 02

  Go ahead, let's do it. Which quarterback would you want over Derrick Henry? I don't know.

• 1:04:20Bill Simmons?

  I was looking up, I was trying to think of how many guys were awesome from like the first moment they played in high school all the way through. And they're still awesome now. Like I think LeBron's been like that, right? LeBron was awesome as a ninth grader. All the way through, he's been awesome for 26 years. Henry, as a freshman in high school at Uly in 2009, rushed for 2,465 yards and 7.9 yards a carry. He was like 14 years old. He finished his career, he ran for 12,124 yards in high school, 8.7 yards per carry and 153 touchdowns.

• 1:05:01Bill Simmons?

  Right? So he's, I don't know if he's the greatest high school running back ever, but if that, whenever anybody writes that article, he has to be one of the first people mentioned. It's like Emmitt Smith and you go through, you have to have Henry in the first couple.

• 1:05:12Speaker 02

  Well, week nine against Norwich is junior year. He says he had the flu, but he only went for like 130.

• 1:05:18Bill Simmons?

  So then he goes to Alabama, they're stacked at running back. He plays anyway.

• 1:05:25Bill Simmons?

  Second year better and then third year, 2,218 yards, 5.6 a carry, turns pro.

• 1:05:34Bill Simmons?

  And he's rushed for 11,423 yards in nine years. He's had three years where he ran for over five yards a carry and then another year he was 4.9. This last year he ran for 5.9 a carry in 1921. It's the second best year of his career. There's nobody like him. He's a complete 101. We've never seen a running back who does the things that he does. I can't compare him to anybody we've ever, like there's pieces of like Christian McCoy, Eric Dickerson. I don't know who he is.

• 1:06:04Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 1:06:05Bill Simmons?

  And he's exactly as good as he was when he came in the league. And I don't know how long it continues, but it's weird that we had that one playoffs when we talked about him. When the Titans were like nine and eight or nine and seven. And then they made it all the way to the AFC title game. And it was like, oh my God, is Derrick Henry more valuable than any quarterback? And that was the only time he had a moment in the sun.

• 1:06:24Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:06:25Bill Simmons?

  And now you watch him, especially in that playoff game. And it's like, are we just completely underrated Baltimore? And is this Lamar Henry thing? Are we going to look back at this and think this was one of the most amazing combos we've had in the league this century? Anyway, that's why I like the Ravens.

• 1:06:41Speaker 02

  Well, I think you could be right about all that stuff. I mean, it's amazing. A guy does so well in high school that he's drafted in college and he does so well in college. The post like, wow.

• 1:06:51Bill Simmons?

  But how are you this great as a running back for 15 straight years?

• 1:06:54Speaker 02

  But his yards per carry went down a couple of those years.

• 1:06:57Bill Simmons?

  But he's unstoppable.

• 1:06:58Speaker 02

  I get it.

• 1:06:58Bill Simmons?

  He's still unstoppable as a freshman in high school. 15 years later, nobody can stop him.

• 1:07:03Speaker 02

  It's amazing.

• 1:07:04Bill Simmons?

  Listen.

• 1:07:04Speaker 02

  Herschel Walker slowed down. FanDuel had Saturday, highest rushing yards on Saturday. I was like, it's Derrick Henry. Why is it minus 125? JJ's arguing with me. I was like, just stop, just bet Derrick Henry to have the most yards on Saturday. He's going to have the most yards for the weekend.

• 1:07:21Bill Simmons?

  What'd he end up, 186?

• 1:07:22Speaker 02

  186 or something. So yeah, he's great. They're great. The only thing is, I don't know, like they have to, sometimes they, they don't figure out how to manage the load between Lamar and Henry. Sometimes.

• 1:07:35Bill Simmons?

  He's 4.9 per carry for his career.

• 1:07:39Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:07:39Bill Simmons?

  And then 5.0 in the postseason.

• 1:07:43Bill Simmons?

  Usually, we always talk about running backs. It's like a shelf life of four years, five years, maybe six years. This guy's gonna, you know, he's floating around in free agency and people are like, ah, he might be too old. And it turned out, he was just on a team that didn't have quarterbacks for four years.

• 1:07:56Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:07:57Bill Simmons?

  I, I think this guy's one of the all time freaks. Like, I think Moss was a freak. I think Lawrence Taylor was a freak. We talk about like the freak athletes that we've watched since we've been alive and love football. And Henry, it's, it's, it's a short list, but he's definitely on it. I don't, we're just, he's a one on one to me.

• 1:08:14Speaker 02

  I'm not gonna argue. I will have to see his like stats and Turkey Bowl when those parents play him and when he was like nine years old and stuff, but I'll trust.

• 1:08:22Bill Simmons?

  Senior year, 13 games, 4,261 yards.

• 1:08:27Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 1:08:28Bill Simmons?

  He ran for 4,000 yards.

• 1:08:30Speaker 02

  I know, it's stupid. It's really dumb. Yeah, I, he, he's got a lot of wear and tear on him. It doesn't make any sense.

• 1:08:36Bill Simmons?

  Or he doesn't, or he has no wear and tear because he's a freak.

• 1:08:39Speaker 02

  Maybe it keeps going.

• 1:08:40Bill Simmons?

  But it doesn't, like you see, there's like the videos of Lamar from high school where he has like a couple just freaky.

• 1:08:46Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:08:46Bill Simmons?

  You know, uh, he has that one, that run into the end zone where he just stops and the guy goes by him and he just pauses and then he goes in. And it's just like, some of these dudes, they just had it when they were 14. Then there's the late bloomer types. Even Cooper DeJean, have you seen the basketball footage of him? Like doing two hand slams?

• 1:09:05Speaker 02

  Hmm.

• 1:09:06Bill Simmons?

  I don't know.

• 1:09:06Speaker 02

  These guys are good athletes.

• 1:09:08Bill Simmons?

  These guys are good athletes.

• 1:09:09Speaker 02

  I'm glad you're learning that. I still think one and a half's light. Sorry.

• 1:09:14Bill Simmons?

  No, I just think, I think Henry is one of the all time freaks since we've been watching football. I would put him at the top, top, top freak level of all these dudes.

• 1:09:25Bill Simmons?

  And I, I wonder, is he the key guy in round two? Not, the reason I brought that up, is he the key guy in round two, not Lamar? Cause the Bills, they're medium sized, they're not big. I do feel like you can battering random. And he just softens them up and then Lamar can do his stuff on the side.

• 1:09:41Speaker 02

  But why did you make this line three if you like Baltimore so much?

• 1:09:45Bill Simmons?

  I was just trying to guess what Vegas would have, because I think Vegas really likes the Bills.

• 1:09:49Speaker 02

  Yeah, I don't know.

• 1:09:51Bill Simmons?

  Where does the line end up, you think?

• 1:09:53Speaker 02

  You're going Ravens, as soon as we hang this zoom up, you're putting the Ravens on a teaser with somebody. I know you are.

• 1:09:59Bill Simmons?

  To me, I want to bet them straight up because there's still the, the Lamar playoff stuff still makes me a whiff nervous.

• 1:10:05Speaker 02

  Hmm.

• 1:10:06Bill Simmons?

  So I wouldn't want to tie it with another bet. I'd rather tease the Chiefs with one of the NFC teams.

• 1:10:12Speaker 02

  Mac Hollins had 13 touchdown receptions in high school. As a played varsity in ninth grade.

• 1:10:19Bill Simmons?

  4,241 yards.

• 1:10:21Speaker 02

  That's preposterous. I know. It's crazy.

• 1:10:23Bill Simmons?

  I just like, and he never get, I guess he got, he got hurt for like eight games, one year in Tennessee, but there's just no wear and tear at all. It's like, he's like a car that has 200,000 miles on it that can still go 200 miles an hour.

• 1:10:36Speaker 02

  If he went to our son's high school, we'd be talking about him so much, our kids would hate us, right? Like, shut up, dad. Pay attention to me. It's like, yeah, but you got a running back in your school who ran for 4,300 yards.

• 1:10:46Bill Simmons?

  I was saying, I was on a text thread about this this weekend. I was saying, it's like the kid in the little league world series game, the Cody Webster kid, who's just bigger than everybody else.

• 1:10:54Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:10:55Bill Simmons?

  And then that kid grows up and he's, that's the highlight of his life, right? Derrick Henry was probably that kid at age eight and he's still that guy now and he's 30. He's been that guy for over two decades. He still looks like, you watch and you go, how's anyone tackling this? All right, third game, Detroit.

• 1:11:12Bill Simmons?

  Home. For Washington.

• 1:11:15Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 1:11:18Bill Simmons?

  You know where this is going.

• 1:11:21Bill Simmons?

  It's going right in the Vegas zone for me. Detroit by five and a half.

• 1:11:25Speaker 02

  Ooh.

• 1:11:28Speaker 02

  Wow. I said seven and a half and it's eight and a half.

• 1:11:33Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 1:11:35Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 1:11:35Bill Simmons?

  Wow, you're gonna beat me this week.

• 1:11:37Speaker 02

  Wait a minute, do we even have to do guest alliance tomorrow?

• 1:11:39Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we do. We still have to do it for posterity. You don't have to start your guys. You can, you can be like when the Chiefs rest in week 18.

• 1:11:47Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:11:47Bill Simmons?

  You can look up some Derrick Henry high school footage. You can go over that somewhere.

• 1:11:53Bill Simmons?

  Some of his games at U League.

• 1:11:56Speaker 02

  We'll talk about our Sacramento bet. This is eight, now, this is, um, I was trying to figure out why it's even higher than seven and a half, what I guess, but. So Tampa was what? Three? And Detroit's eight and a half?

• 1:12:09Bill Simmons?

  I think that's ridiculous. I don't understand that at all with Detroit's defense. Because they look good on, against Minnesota, because Darnold sucked and sailed like 10 passes. We, now we're, now we think Detroit's defense is back. They gave up 40 plus points like three weeks before that.

• 1:12:27Speaker 02

  The over under is by high, by far the highest so far and, um, at 55 and a half. So I guess they're thinking it could get out of hand with one score, even if it's close late.

• 1:12:40Bill Simmons?

  Well, this lined up really nicely for the Lions.

• 1:12:44Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:12:45Bill Simmons?

  They get the one seed, they get a week off. They get Washington around two that just pulled out yet another crazy win, but still has a rookie quarterback. Like the leap of just thinking mentally of Washington, I know they won 12 games, they're a good team, but just thinking about them in the NFC title game.

• 1:13:07Bill Simmons?

  That seems like a lot.

• 1:13:09Speaker 02

  Gimme if you're, if you're Dan Campbell, and let's say you get through this game, out of the three possible opponents, Rams, Vikings, Eagles. Who do you want?

• 1:13:22Bill Simmons?

  I think I'd be the most afraid of the Vikings, as crazy as that sounds.

• 1:13:25Speaker 02

  Really?

• 1:13:26Bill Simmons?

  And they might lose tomorrow.

• 1:13:27Speaker 02

  Familiarity, yeah.

• 1:13:29Bill Simmons?

  Don't you think?

• 1:13:31Bill Simmons?

  Cause I do think there's a world where those were the two best teams, not just in the NFC, but the whole league potentially. Withstanding the whole Chiefs playoff pedigree and all that stuff, but.

• 1:13:40Speaker 02

  But what if AJ Brown puts down the book and um.

• 1:13:43Bill Simmons?

  Maybe he'll finish in her excellence by then.

• 1:13:46Speaker 02

  He's got a long time, he's got three, two weeks.

• 1:13:49Bill Simmons?

  I uh, with the way Hertz looks, I wouldn't be as scared of the Eagles as I would have been four weeks ago.

• 1:13:56Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:13:56Bill Simmons?

  Don't you think?

• 1:13:57Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:13:59Bill Simmons?

  I mean, he had 39 yards at halftime.

• 1:14:02Speaker 02

  I know, I just read you that it's his numbers and that he's winning these playoff games, it's ridiculous, but it does bug me that third and three, they got you over a barrel every single time.

• 1:14:14Bill Simmons?

  Alright, so we're, we're gonna uh, we'll save the rest of it for tomorrow when we react off.

• 1:14:19Speaker 02

  Alright.

• 1:14:20Bill Simmons?

  We'll do, we'll get that up.

• 1:14:21Speaker 02

  Two, I'm up three to one, I won the week, I'm up three to one, we'll do it for fun.

• 1:14:25Bill Simmons?

  What's, what's the, are we tied now for the season?

• 1:14:30Speaker 02

  We were tied heading into the week, yeah, so I'm up by one.

• 1:14:34Bill Simmons?

  This is great. Could be your first, this could give hope to Buffalo fans, Minnesota fans, Washington commanders fans.

• 1:14:41Speaker 02

  Hold on, let me read you my guess, the Lions record in middle school. I went 16 weeks in a row.

• 1:14:51Bill Simmons?

  How many great high school to their 30s athletes can you think of who were great the entire time all the way through?

• 1:15:00Bill Simmons?

  Cause I guess like in basketball, it's like

• 1:15:02Speaker 02

  Basketball happens more.

• 1:15:03Bill Simmons?

  Basketball happens way more easy to figure out. Football happens with the quarterbacks, with the running backs and the receivers. I would argue it doesn't really, Emmett was like that. Emmett was awesome.

• 1:15:13Speaker 02

  Emmett was great.

• 1:15:14Bill Simmons?

  Right? He was awesome. He was a high school, college pro guy.

• 1:15:17Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:15:18Bill Simmons?

  But other than that, I don't know. So Rudy, are there other guys that I'm not thinking of? How many guys were awesome high school, college pros?

• 1:15:29Bill Simmons?

  So Rudy's gotta turn his zoom on.

• 1:15:36Bill Simmons?

  Oh yeah, there he is.

• 1:15:36Speaker 02

  I mean, Arch Manning, Trevor Lawrence were big, but Arch Manning didn't play.

• 1:15:42Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:15:42Bill Simmons?

  Oh, Peyton's a good one. Was Peyton awesome like ninth grade on?

• 1:15:45Speaker 03

  He couldn't get over the, the hump though in college, right? Wasn't that kind of the knock on him?

• 1:15:50Bill Simmons?

  Right. He was still putting up stats.

• 1:15:52Speaker 02

  Yeah, no, he was great. He just couldn't beat Florida. Yeah.

• 1:15:56Bill Simmons?

  I guess Randy Moss, but then Randy Moss had to transfer when he was in college and the college went a little sideways for a second.

• 1:16:04Speaker 02

  Mm hmm. Oh, Adrian Peterson, right?

• 1:16:07Bill Simmons?

  That's a good one.

• 1:16:08Speaker 02

  Obviously you slowed down in the last couple of years, but yeah. A ridiculous recruiting class.

• 1:16:14Bill Simmons?

  So Rudy, when, when Henry got, when he went fell to the second round after the Alabama season, did that seem like the right range for you or did you think everybody was a big mistake?

• 1:16:24Speaker 03

  People called that like a terrible pick because you know, he's like big, was he fast enough? There were people that really

• 1:16:29Bill Simmons?

  But they thought he was too slow?

• 1:16:30Speaker 03

  I don't know. Yeah. Which is weird because I think he did, I don't think his 40 time was terrible, but yeah, like there were people that crushed that pick as a second round pick and uh, I don't know. It's always weird though with the Alabama running backs because sometimes, you know, you like they're just, they play with the best offensive line and yada, yada, yada.

• 1:16:48Speaker 02

  That was a knock. Yeah, right. Yeah, the whole thing. Vince Young.

• 1:16:52Bill Simmons?

  I'm sure the Westerns will come up with a couple of them.

• 1:16:53Speaker 02

  Yeah, I know. They're gonna kill us for missing an obvious one.

• 1:16:57Bill Simmons?

  Well, you know, I was looking at one of those lists where they had the 50 best. Tony Dorsett was apparently one of the great high school running backs of all time. And then he was really good at Pittsburgh too.

• 1:17:05Speaker 02

  In Pennsylvania.

• 1:17:06Bill Simmons?

  So he might be another one. How long was his, his Cowboys run was probably eight or nine years.

• 1:17:09Speaker 02

  Pretty great. Yeah. Yeah, right in there.

• 1:17:12Bill Simmons?

  All right. Thanks, Surita. Who do you like in the title game?

• 1:17:15Speaker 02

  Ohio State.

• 1:17:18Bill Simmons?

  Oh, wow. What's the line in the Ohio State?

• 1:17:22Speaker 02

  It's like, is it a six now? What is it?

• 1:17:25Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 1:17:25Speaker 02

  So I'm sorry, eight and a half. No, it's eight and a half.

• 1:17:27Bill Simmons?

  So tease them with the Chiefs.

• 1:17:29Speaker 02

  You could tease it. My, like I said, we're going to sit down with your financial planner.

• 1:17:33Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:17:33Speaker 02

  All right.

• 1:17:34Bill Simmons?

  Thanks, Rudy. All right, wanna, should we skip parent corner this week and talk California?

• 1:17:41Speaker 02

  We could, yes.

• 1:17:43Bill Simmons?

  We should mention that as, as we're, we're recording this on a Sunday night and we got notice a couple of hours ago that there's like a severe wind thing coming on Tuesday. So, um,

• 1:17:59Bill Simmons?

  it's hard to say where we're going next, but this was already the worst week since I've been in LA. By far, not even close. One of the biggest natural disasters in American history.

• 1:18:12Bill Simmons?

  And I can't wrap my head around it all of these days later. And you're over in, you're over in the Manhattan Beach area. I don't know how much you dealt with some of the areas that were affected when we're talking Palisades and Malibu and Eaton, Altadena were the big four.

• 1:18:28Bill Simmons?

  We knew, we knew a lot of people from friends of friends, people my kids went to school with, who lived in different parts and, and I, it's, I don't even know how to describe this to people who don't live in California, like the wide swath of devastation. The Palisades just basically being gone, whole parts of Malibu just being gone, Eaton, Altadena, like I, it's one of those things when you see it, when you watch it on TV and it's happening in other areas and it's like, man, that seems awful, but you don't really fully understand it until you live there. And I don't, I know Ella will come back. I know everybody bounces back eventually, but.

• 1:19:09Bill Simmons?

  Man, it's, it's really hard to even understand how the rebuilding is gonna happen and how long it's gonna take. And you just see those wide overhead shots of these different areas. And it's just like, it's, it's just so awful. And it's just been an awful week. And, and it just feels like it's not gonna get better.

• 1:19:26Speaker 02

  Yeah. And that's also part of it. And I'm sorry, I know this goes on in like Maui and other places, and we should be thinking about that. But yeah, when it's in your backyard and like, people are checking in with me. I'm like, I don't know, I'm, I'm good for now. I'm all right for now. I have no idea. And it, it depends on the wind. And somehow, did you know they could predict wind for three days? I didn't even know they could do that. But, um, so we know like there's bad shit ahead. And we know a lot of people who got devastated. And it, it's really rough. It really, I don't want to bum everyone out. But it really is like, oh, my God, you feel like you have so much control over your life. And then, and then you don't, you really don't with like something stupid like this. And we don't know how it started. And we don't know how it's gonna end. And, uh, and that's, uh, and we need football as a distraction. And it,

• 1:20:10Speaker 02

  it's hardly ranks as important. But, uh, I mean, for God's sakes, I, I wish we could like, talk about this as if it's going on in the past, but it's not.

• 1:20:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. It doesn't seem like it's over yet. We'll see. I mean, we've been here, I've been here since oh, two, and you've been here a few years before that. And there's been wind events, and it's been windy. And I remember, um, over and over again, especially like even taking my daughter to soccer tournaments. And it would be like 35 degree, 35 mile an hour winds in Lancaster and stuff like that. For some reason, these winds seemed a little, they were, they're pointing them out a couple of days before, like, hey, this is pretty scary this time around. And then, everything that happened was so much worse than you ever, ever could imagine. Even heading through Tuesday, like it was, starting the Palisades, and then all of a sudden, by mid, early Tuesday night here, you really felt like this could go.

• 1:21:06Bill Simmons?

  In a, in a direction you just never could have been in your worst nightmare imagined. But first responders, fire department, police department, the helicopter pilots drop in the water. All the, all the TV people who were out there braving the elements. I mean, that, that, one of the things that was

• 1:21:27Bill Simmons?

  really inspiring was how many people were trying to get out there, trying to tell us what was going on. And for a lot of people watching TV, not knowing if it was their neighborhood, their house. And it was, you're just relying on all these people, these Twitter accounts, like that LA scanner account.

• 1:21:44Bill Simmons?

  But, and it turned out to be just a 10 out of 10, the worst case scenario that we could have had.

• 1:21:49Speaker 02

  Yeah. I mean, yeah, like you said, even the reporters in these firestorms, like that are going on like, you know, 100 feet behind them. It's like, what, what is going on? And like I said, I, I, I wish that the worst is behind us. But then, you know, we have a, a mutual friend that's a doctor at UCLA and he's like, "Yeah, man, they have to evacuate this hospital if the, if the storm come, if the fires come within two and a half miles of this place." And it's right now, it's four. I was like, are you kidding me? What the hell, what does that look like evacuating a whole giant hospital? Like that's, that's, my God, that's going to be something that's just even more outrageous and right up there with anything else. So, um, yeah, just, you know, plenty of GoFundMes out there, plenty of places to look to help.

• 1:22:32Speaker 02

  Plenty of fucking scammers too, that are assholes trying to take advantage of this, but just be careful and be diligent and, you know.

• 1:22:39Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I'm gonna, I wanted to really kind of dive into it and see which ones I trusted. And maybe on the next podcast could talk about some of the, uh, some of the possibilities. Say, you know, some of the stuff's going to get rebuilt and I'm sure it's going to take a while.

• 1:22:55Bill Simmons?

  There's some other stuff that I don't know how they. How how stuff comes back, houses that were, you know, from 1940, 1950, that you would never build the same way. And some, some pieces of California that just had real special characters. Certainly one of the reasons I wanted to live here, being near the ocean and just some of the coolest parts of the country I'd ever seen. And, and then on top of it, just, I think, losing your house and having no power over that and just knowing all the stuff that you kept and everything's gone. Like, I don't, there's very few worse feelings than that. So it's just so much pain and so much heartbreak out here. We tried to do podcasts, tried to talk football and tried to keep people's minds off it for

• 1:23:38Bill Simmons?

  an hour, but it's really, really horrible. And I really hope we've hit the end of it and that it's not going to get worse.

• 1:23:45Speaker 02

  That'd be nice, right? That'd be nice. After all this

• 1:23:48Bill Simmons?

  Not too much to ask.

• 1:23:49Speaker 02

  parlay and teaser talk. Let's just get, uh, let's get everyone safe.

• 1:23:54Bill Simmons?

  Well, that's it. Best of luck to everybody out there. We're really sorry about everything that happened. On one of the later podcasts that we do, hopefully this week, we'll try to have some, maybe even tomorrow, when we come back tomorrow for that last game, maybe we could try to figure out a couple of good things that we actually trust and a couple ways to get the word out to try to help people.

• 1:24:14Speaker 02

  I like that. I like that. I mean, it was, it's crazy. Your week started with one of the Bella Twins twerking four feet from you. I mean, I think

• 1:24:22Bill Simmons?

  I know, that was a Monday night. It feels like it was 100, 100 days ago.

• 1:24:25Speaker 02

  Minus 65,000 to make parent corner. And, uh, too many terrible things happened. So, anyway.

• 1:24:32Bill Simmons?

  Well, we're really feeling for everybody out there. And it's, it's just really heartbreaking. I really come to love LA, too. And, uh, you know, it's just, uh, it's just hard to wrap your head around, especially places that you've been to a million times. And now you think, well, wait a second, what's, what's that going to look like now? But hopefully we can all get through this and figure it out. So I will, I will see you tomorrow night.

• 1:24:58Speaker 02

  Let's do it tomorrow. Good job by you, Billy.

• 1:25:00Bill Simmons?

  Good job, Pete. Thanks to Kyle and Sarudy and Gahal for producing. You can watch this video on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel as well, and we will see you on Monday night. Please, everybody, stay safe. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus and present in DC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com. Call 1-887-897777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support

• 1:25:40Bill Simmons?

  in Massachusetts, or call 1-8778-HOPE-NY, or text HOPE-NY in New York. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, I like those guys, star in the sharp-witted comedy thriller from Academy Award winner, Martin McDonagh, writer-director of The Banshees of Minneh Sharon and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island. Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys, Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment,

• 1:26:26Bill Simmons?

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