Part 1: Bill’s NBA Six-Pack. Plus Peter Schrager on the Jets’ Downfall, Buffalo’s Leap, and DRAKE MAYE.

In Part 1 of a two-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons runs through six NBA topics, including the scrappy Clippers, the fourth place Rockets, and the new NBA All-Star game format (1:26). He is then joined by Peter Schrager of NFL Network and Fox Sports to discuss the NFL season's biggest surprises, like the dysfunctional Jets and the surging Bills (24:38). They also admire the impressive rookie QB class, try to figure out the NFC West, predict future head-coaching vacancies, and more (42:22). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Peter Schrager Producers: Kyle Crichton and Steve Ceruti The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Bill Simmons?

  Coming up, a two-part pod. This is part one. We're gonna talk some basketball, talk some football next. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Excitement is in the air. That's right. It's the start of NBA season. I can't wait to get together with friends, share some Michelob Ultras and watch Tip Off Plus as the official beer sponsor of the NBA. Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21+. Begins on October 1st, 2026. Ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules

• 0:44Bill Simmons?

  at michelobultra.com/courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by State Farm. Every football player brings something different to the field. Maybe they have a cannon arm, speed, power. Maybe they have their own podcast. That being said, no two players are exactly alike. And the same is true off the field. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you, so they can help personalize coverage for your life and budget. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network. If you missed it, we put up a new rewatchables on Monday. We did the replacements. You can watch that on the Ringer Movies YouTube

• 1:26Bill Simmons?

  channel as well. You can watch all the videos and clips from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. This is going to be a two-part podcast. We just had too much content for you today. So, part one, I'm doing an NBA six-pack at the top. And then, our old friend Peter Schreger is coming on to talk about all of the NFL, things we're super surprised by, things we're delighted by, where we stand after 11 weeks, even some, some coach stuff. So, that's gonna be part one. And then, part two is going to be Chris Ryan and Joe House and I talking about the Sixers and what the hell is going on there. And then, House and I are gonna do some million-dollar picks. We're gonna try to get both of these parts

• 2:04Bill Simmons?

  up as soon as we possibly can. So, that's the plan. This is part one. First, our friends from Pearl Jam.

• 2:34Bill Simmons?

  All right, we're gonna start with an NBA six pack. I haven't done this in a while. I haven't talked NBA in over a week, which is my fault. I'm not perfect. I have six things that I wanted to throw at you. None of them have to do with the Philadelphia 76ers, because we're gonna be talking about them later today with Chris Ryan and Joe House. First thing, the Clippers without Paul George. So I took the under as a lock before the season over under podcast with the Clippers. Thirty seven and a half. I didn't see how they were gonna have enough scoring, which is James Harden, Norman Powell. I didn't understand why they didn't give Paul George four years max. Like, you're already all in with this Kawhi contract. Why not just go all the way in on your team? Well, what did they know? I remember mentioning this on one of the podcasts.

• 3:18Bill Simmons?

  It's like, hmm, Ballmer, guy who just spends money like absolute fucking crazy. And this Paul George thing was too rich for his blood. What do they know? You have an athlete on your team, in this case for five full years, half a decade. And your trainers see stuff, your coaching staff sees stuff. Something about it made them a little wary of committing to a guy in his mid 30s who had had, you know, a major awful broken leg, some other knee stuff. Something made them go, this time it's too rich for our blood, which is interesting because they did this with Blake Griffin, when they signed Blake Griffin to a Big Macs deal. And then traded him like four months later. And it was like, oh, my God, they traded Blake Griffin. What are they doing?

• 4:03Bill Simmons?

  And then what happened? Blake Griffin's body broke down within two years. You watch Paul George. Now, he's hyperextended the same knee twice. So you could say, ah, that's a little fluky. When he came back from the injury, between those two injuries, he didn't look great. And if you're a Sixers fan staring at that max contract, I think you're in a complete panic. But Here's why you can't like celebrate too much with the Clippers. They, they did offer Paul George three years for 150. So it's not like they were like, we're out. We want no part of the Paul George business. They kind of wanted it at their price. What was smart was when they had a chance to sign and trade them, which is something that teams have done a lot in the past where they was like, well, we have this asset. We got to turn it and all of a sudden they're taking these contracts back. They were smart enough not to do that.

• 4:47Bill Simmons?

  They didn't do it with Golden State, had some possible trades. Denver, they supposedly talked to. So they turned the Paul George money into Derek Jones and Chris Dunn, 45 million for three years. So that's about one third of what Paul George would have cost. And then Nick Pattoon, one year, 4.9, it looks like he might be washed. But they had the ability now to slap contracts for, for bigger deals, slap them together, whatever. And the big bet was can Norman Powell shoulder some of this burden? And he actually has. So I've been watching them because I've been rooting against them because I love being right. And they're nine and seven. They've had a tough schedule. It's been like the opposite of the Lakers schedule. You know, it's true Laker fans, you know, like this win streak, like you haven't played anybody. You know, that's true deep down.

• 5:32Bill Simmons?

  Clippers nine and seven, they played Houston twice. They played Golden State twice. They played Phoenix twice. They played OKC, Sacramento, Orlando and Denver.

• 5:42Bill Simmons?

  There's not nothing going on here. And I'll tell you one other thing. I think the arena is, is really good. They played the Warriors last, uh, last Monday and I really wanted to go and we had a Spotify thing. I couldn't go. And somebody who was there told me something, somebody that's worked for the team for a while, told me something that I thought was a great point. It was the first Warriors game the Clippers have had as a home game, where the Warriors fans didn't drown out the Clipper fans. Where it actually felt like a Clippers home game and they ended up winning. It was a classic Clippers Warriors game where the Warriors played that crap. Clippers looked great. Then all of a sudden the Warriors are scrapping together, trying to win at the end. They didn't. But, um, whatever Ballmer did with that arena, which is really cool and the wall and the fans close together

• 6:26Bill Simmons?

  and trying to monitor some of the ticket stuff, it actually worked in that Warriors game. So, uh, I, I'm a little more bullish on the Clippers than I used to be. That's the first one. Speaking of the Warriors, it's a tiny one, second in the six pack. The D'Anthony Melton injury was a really, really secretly huge injury. There's been so many injuries this year, it kind of got lost in the shuffle. But he had really unlocked them. He was really good next to Curry. He was an excellent on-ball defender, a good shooter. They were fourth in defensive rating before he got hurt and he was a great fit with Curry. And he hurt his knee and it was like, ah, then they said it was a sprained ACL. And then all of a sudden he's getting ACL surgery and it just hurts them. They're not the same team.

• 7:10Bill Simmons?

  They've been, they've been trying to throw people in that spot and we'll see how it goes with them. But he was the perfect fit and it kind of exposed the secret issue with Klay the last couple of years, where he kind of couldn't guard anybody. If you have Curry, that doesn't need to be totally protected because he's a really good off-ball defender. But you want somebody else taking that burden of going against the Ja Morant types night after night. Melton was doing it. I'm just watching it because I loved how the Warriors played. The last time we did the power poll, I was talking about how I had them as a sleeper, but I really thought maybe they could be a real contender and they still might be. But the Melton thing, Melton thing definitely hurts. So I didn't want to not mention that. Third thing for the six pack, Houston. They have the look.

• 7:54Bill Simmons?

  I know the look, they have the look. Third defensive rating, 11th offense. The terror twins, Amen Thompson and Tar Hees and have been my, they're not the league pack. They're not like best Oscar winner, best actor. I'm not even positive they're best supporting actor, but there's something, I don't know what Oscar they would win. They come in and they flip these games. They, they just have so much athleticism and so much defense between those two. They're terrifying. It's a little like what Orlando had last year. It's a little like what OKC has sometimes. But they have like, it's something to watch and especially if you're gambling on games and you like player props and stuff.

• 8:35Bill Simmons?

  Like, watch when Houston goes against teams that have good swings. Like, they played Indiana, Matheran had eight points. They played Chicago, Levine had 15. They had back to backs against the Clippers. This is what really jumped out to me because I actually watched those games. Harden was fucking useless against Houston. Between Brooks and then the Terror Twins, like, it was, you could kind of see him like I'm tapping out. I don't like this. I'm not having a good time. Harden and Powell in back to back games were 21 for 58, 12 free throw attempts total, and they only scored 60 points and Houston swept those games. And I just think defensively, there's really something here. I don't even, I said this when we did the Power Pull. I don't even think they know what their team is yet.

• 9:17Bill Simmons?

  Like Jabari Smith will have some games or only plays like 22 minutes, only scores four points. He's a guy that if you're gonna say who is not gonna be on this team in a year, maybe that's the guy because I think he's a real asset. They were playing small ball five with him last year.

• 9:33Bill Simmons?

  He's only 9.7 million this year. He could be the focal point of a trade if they want to make a trade. They've already said publicly they don't want to make a trade, that they're happy to have the, kind of what Orlando had last year, what OKC had, C had two years ago of, we're young, we're hungry, let's see where this goes, which I think is the right mentality. But they do have a lot of picks. They do have Jabari as the centerpiece of if you're actually getting a player back in the trade. So I'm just watching them. And I'm watching them in general because I really like them. Tuesday night, Houston at Minnesota with the Terror Twins and Brooks going against Edwards is, I think the league pass game of the year that is in Celtics Cleveland, because I don't think that was a league pass game.

• 10:12Bill Simmons?

  But I want to see them go toe to toe with that Minnesota team. Houston to me is a top five team in the West. I'm taking them very seriously and I love the Terror Twins. So that's my third thing. Fourth thing.

• 10:27Bill Simmons?

  Just a question.

• 10:30Bill Simmons?

  Did Heat culture die when they didn't get Dame? Because here's what's happened since. Remember, they had already drafted Hocke, which is the last really smart Heat moment we've had. Since then, um, the 2024 Knicks, last year's Knicks team, kind of stole their identity as like the defense chemistry overachieving team. They had a terrible year. Riley got mad at Butler. The Rozier trade turned out to be kind of blah, and I'll admit, I liked the Rozier trade for them. He was playing great for Charlotte. He's been kind of blah for them. He's averaging 13 points a game. There's times out there, he might be the Tobias Harris award, Russillo's joke about, oh, I didn't realize Terry Rozier was out there. Uh, he's had some moments like that. Bam's gone backwards.

• 11:12Bill Simmons?

  Now, um, I assume that's going to turn around, but I'm just pointing out, he doesn't look like a top 15 player in the league. Nikola Jovic, who they were all excited about, um, blah.

• 11:25Bill Simmons?

  They're getting 24 points a game in a 49, 45, 88 shooting season from Tyler Hero. And as we're taping this on a Thursday, they're six and seven. And Boston and Cleveland seems like they're, they're miles ahead of them. But the big thing for me, and a lot of people have talked about this this week, and this is like, the Heat fans get mad every time I talk about the Heat. They had the 15th pick in the draft. They drafted Ware, the center who barely plays, and they passed on back to back picks. Jared McCain goes to Philly and Connect goes to the Lakers. And in the old days, the Heat, if McCain was on the board at 15, like, forget about Connect. I like Connect, but I can see it. He's 24. They already have shooters who don't really play defense. Like, I get it.

• 12:09Bill Simmons?

  McCain was the most Miami pick. I can't believe, I couldn't believe it in the moment. If you go back to my Twitter feed, I was going nuts about McCain. I thought like, I was like, this guy, I know this guy's good because he was an LA kid. I watched him play in high school. Bunch of times. He was my favorite kind of post-latter guy in the draft by far. I would have bet anything McCain was going to be a good player. And they passed on him. And maybe it's nothing. Everybody misses on picks. They had Hero, they took Bam, they took, uh, they took Hocke. Like, they're clearly really good at drafting. And they whiffed on this pick with two guys that really, really, really could have helped them.

• 12:45Bill Simmons?

  Big picture, I'm just not afraid of the heat anymore. I think I finally, it's like the horror movie where you're not looking under your bed. I'm just not looking under my bed anymore with the heat. Great run 2020, 23 and uh, and it's over. And we'll see what they do with it. But I, that McCain connect thing is like symbolic of something that shifted with those guys. Fifth thing on the six pack. So the NBA All-Star game, Shams Charania, now of ESPN, reported that they're going to do a 14 tournament this year and they're going to have three All-Star teams, eight players each, and then they're going to have the winner of the rookie sophomore game. And so it's going to be four teams competing, semifinal games up to 40 points, first team to 40, I guess, wins finals games up to 25

• 13:30Bill Simmons?

  points. Um, as usual, they didn't consult with me, even though um, I would put my track record of, of great goofy NBA ideas against anyone in the 21st century. I just would just go look at the track records there. I don't know why the rookie sophomore guys are in this and I don't know why each team has eight players. If they had asked me, what do you think? I would have said four All-Star teams, six players each. So there's one sub. Has anybody who made this decision ever played pickup basketball? Who has three subs and pick up basketball? It sucks. I remember playing in a league one year in Boston when we had like nine players on the, and it was like short games and you're just shuttling

• 14:10Bill Simmons?

  guys in and out like it was hockey and it sucked. Um, I would have done four All-Star teams. I would have done six players each. Um, had the signature players of the league be the captain of those teams. So you have Steph, you have Giannis, um, you have, you have LeBron and maybe Jokic. I know, however you want to do it. Sorry, MB, you make the cut. Uh, and done six players, then each player is a sub. And by the way, if somebody gets hurt, you still have five players and maybe there's like a 25th All-Star who's like the emergency QB who can come in at any point if two guys are hurt. I just don't get the eight players thing. And I don't understand why anybody wants to watch the rookie sophomore guys playing against these dudes. Not to mention, those guys are actually

• 14:55Bill Simmons?

  going to be really trying. And maybe that's why they did it. Maybe they wanted the All-Stars to try against the rookie sophomores. But it's like, like that's a pretty big spot to throw a rookie team in, especially when you have. The draft that we had this year, that was pretty uninspired, the sophomores, whatever. But I just, it was an easy tweak. I don't know how they fucked this up. As usual, they didn't ask me.

• 15:19Bill Simmons?

  Sixth and last.

• 15:22Bill Simmons?

  I think Milwaukee's gonna be fine. That's where I landed. I don't think they're gonna win the title. I don't even think they're necessarily gonna make the Eastern Finals, but I didn't think that before the season. What, what was in play for the first three weeks was this could be an all time disaster. They're gonna have to trade Giannis. Like, it just felt like all the darkest pieces of the season were sitting there.

• 15:44Bill Simmons?

  Giannis is averaging a 32, 12 and 6. He's, it's yet, it's like his seventh straight year where he's looked like one of the three best players in the league at worst. Dame has not shot the ball well, and they're still 6 and 9 with three horrible losses. One, that actually seemed like there should have been a criminal investigation with the officiating. But 6 and 9, easily it could be 9 and 6. Three of the dumbest losses of the season. Green and Prince, two swing guys for them, both shooting 50% from 3. So Doc has just figured out, like, I'm probably just gonna give up defense with the swings. I just wanna make sure guys can make shots. That's why somebody like A.J. Green is playing. And they're not a top 14. I don't think they're there with Boston, Cleveland, New York, Orlando.

• 16:26Bill Simmons?

  But after that, I don't, I don't know who I'd like more than Giannis and the Bucks. I'd probably have them 5th. And all they need to do is get to the playoffs. And then you have Giannis, and you can try to stay healthy, and maybe you can find one shooter. They're minus 700 for the playoffs on Fanduel, which I think is notable.

• 16:44Bill Simmons?

  Should also mention, Fanduel does not have odds for Philly to make the playoffs. You literally can't find them, because that's how crazy this Philly season's been. But I'm leaning toward Milwaukee's probably okay, right? They, maybe they're not, not one of the favorites. But they're okay. They're, they're, this isn't gonna be like a catastrophe of the season. Philly is not okay. We're gonna be talking about that later. So that's the six pack for the NBA. But I have to bring in Steve Ceruti, Orlando Magic fan, producer of the pod. Because there's some Franz Wagner atoning we have to do. I handed my Ringer 100 list over a week ago. I think I had Franz like in the low 60s. The list itself didn't do very well.

• 17:28Bill Simmons?

  And all Franz has done over the last two weeks has said, not only are we not going to miss Paulo, but I'm actually an all NBA player and, and sign me up for this list. Is this a fluke or is this real?

• 17:40Speaker 01

  I think it's real. Uh, I will say my biggest gripe with Franz is that like when in the past with Paulo, like when he would go on these quarter stretches where he'd clearly be like the guy and on a streak, he'd, they just like, wouldn't give him the ball or he wouldn't be like proactive and be like, no, I'm that dude right now. Like Paulo, take a step back. And I think this, you know, you never want to say an injury is like a blessing in disguise, but I kind of feel like Franz has found his groove again because he's just the guy now. And I'm kind of hoping like in the long term, this is going to translate to like some, a little bit like taking some of the pressure off of Paulo and Franz realizing like, hey, there are stretches where I can be that dude. Because I mean, he's averaging like 37 and six, a six game winning streak. Obviously we're recording this after the loss against the Clippers last night and he didn't have a great game, but that,

• 18:25Speaker 01

  you know, it's okay. It's six straight great games. I, this is everything that we wanted a max player. This is everything that we thought he was going to be. And I'm looking at the Ringer rankings right now. It's, it's doing my guy a disservice. It really is.

• 18:38Bill Simmons?

  Where did he end up in the Ringer rankings? In the 50s?

• 18:40Speaker 01

  He's 40, he's 48.

• 18:43Bill Simmons?

  Wow.

• 18:44Speaker 01

  Which is, he's behind Scotty Barnes. He's behind, I mean, there are just some guys like he's behind Dame and he's behind Paul George. You know, I know there's the name recognition, but like, you're telling me the Sixers right now, not for like the next two, three, four, five years. Like this year, the Sixers would much rather have Franz than, than Paul George. The Bucks would much rather have Franz than Damian Lillard. I don't even think it's close. So like, I know the name thing, like we want to give those guys respect, but that's insane.

• 19:14Bill Simmons?

  In our defense, when the first couple of weeks Franz couldn't hit a three and it's like, what's going on? Where's Team Germany Franz? Is that guy coming back?

• 19:20Speaker 01

  Around 35% right now. It's, it's, it's, it's not terrible. It could be better. I still think it could be improved, but he's, he's fine.

• 19:28Bill Simmons?

  Team Germany Franz seems like he's back.

• 19:32Bill Simmons?

  It's pretty exciting.

• 19:34Speaker 01

  He's got his brother. He doesn't need Dennis Schrager. He proved, you know, who knows? The trade deadline still, maybe the Magic will be looking for a point guard. I kind of hope it's not him, but he, he just looks so much more confident, man. And it's not even that the defense is really good. He's like one of, or I have a couple of stats here. Hold on. He's one of eight players averaging 25 rebounds, four assists and 4.5 steals a game. That's Luca, De'Aaron Fox, SGA, Harden, Jokic, Tatum and Jalen Williams. Like it's, he's on very impressive lists. So I just love this. It's like the Franz Renaissance thing, proving he's a max player. And, you know, who knows? Like Paulo, you know, he's going to be out probably at least another month or so. So this is the thing is it's probably going to keep rolling.

• 20:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. The thing you needed was with Paulo going out, how can Orlando keep their spot as either the third or the four seed? How can you make sure you, you stay in the, you're going to win the division? Although I don't even know if winning the division matters anymore. But nine and seven, losing your best guy for God knows how long is not a bad place to be. We're taping this before the Lakers game, but the pod's going up for the Lakers game. The thing with the Lakers, they don't have really anyone on their roster to guard, to guard like good scoring wings like this.

• 20:42Speaker 01

  That guy.

• 20:42Bill Simmons?

  Or good point guards, by the way. And they've had this stretch where they've won some games, but part of the reason they're winning the games is because they can play this lineup with Connect and Reeves and LeBron and D-Lo all together because they don't have to worry about guarding anyone. I want to see if Franz can light up the Lakers tonight because I think he can. It's the type of guy that I don't even know, you know, who they'd have to guard him. So we'll see. I'm glad Franz is back. I'm glad for your sanity.

• 21:09Speaker 01

  You're back in on the max player bandwagon. You're back. We flip flopped a little this summer, but you're back now. It's good to have you.

• 21:14Bill Simmons?

  Well, and then the other thing is Anthony Black, the last time we talked about this, like continues to be making strides. So they're, they're laying the foundation. They're not in the Cleveland, Boston swimming pool, but they're at like the pool right next to it doing laps.

• 21:28Speaker 01

  No, but you know what? Like I was talking to a buddy about this. The East is weird because I think before the season, we were like, hey, it's Boston. Then it's like kind of the next like two through eight or nine, where like, I don't know, it could be like between like two to three games could, could be the difference at the end of the season. Now it feels totally different to me now. It feels like, like the Magic should get a home playoff series. Like that, that the top four thing should be a thing this year.

• 21:50Bill Simmons?

  Right. And you have a home playoff series. That could be against Miami. That could be against Milwaukee. Like you want the home court. You want the, you want the game seven. And then when did they say Palace coming back?

• 22:01Speaker 01

  Originally, I think it was six to eight weeks, but I mean, that was like a reevaluation period. So we still have another at least month to go, which you know what? It's all right. Like just, you know, Franz is, Franz is holding it, holding it down. And, you know, I'm just hoping that like, there was a little bit of like, hey, you know, creeping into my mind of like, can these two guys peak coexist together? Like they're both good together, but can it? And I'm just hoping like, you know, because this team is so Franz dependent before he went out or before Paulo went down. Like I remember talking to Rahim about this, like this team's going to be awful to watch. Like they might win some games, but awful. And they've been significantly better. So the hope is that, you know, Franz sort of realizes that, hey, I'm that dude too. And I'm, I'm an all-star caliber player, which I've thought for a while now. So we'll see.

• 22:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. I was wondering if they're going to be almost like the Steelers where they're winning 18 to 16 and getting six field goals, like whatever the NBA version of that. But yeah, they've been a little more fun than that. All right. So Rudy, who's winning the college football championship, by the way?

• 22:57Speaker 01

  Oh, man.

• 22:59Bill Simmons?

  You can pick any team.

• 23:01Speaker 01

  Don't, don't dip your toe into the Indiana waters because we were talking about that in Russillo's pod the other day and we like set the internet on fire because everyone's mad because he doesn't think Indiana is worthy of making the playoff, even with a loss against Ohio State. I would say I'm, I think Oregon's still kind of vulnerable. I still kind of like Georgia, even though some of their weapons are bad. I, if I had to like make a bet right now, and then this is just like not winning money aside, I still think Oregon's probably the pick, but it's wide open, man. It's, that's what's kind of cool about this whole year is that there's, you know, three, four, five, six teams that are all kind of in that same, same area. But I'd go, I'd go Oregon now. Uh, I love Dylan Gabriel. The quarterback is just like a dude that wins games.

• 23:38Bill Simmons?

  So Oregon's plus one 45. Georgia's 24 to one on Fanduel.

• 23:42Speaker 01

  Yeah. The problem is Georgia's really good, but their quarterback has just been awful all season long. So if they just get average quarterback play, they're probably better than everybody else, but.

• 23:50Bill Simmons?

  All right. Well, that's it. I just did college football talk on the Bill Simmons podcast. We have Russillo, we have McShay now, we have way better places to do it. But so Rudy, thank you. We're going to take a break and, uh, and come back with some football.

• 24:04Bill Simmons?

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• 24:49Bill Simmons?

  thinking about the matchup, who's playing who, but Cam Thomas against Philadelphia, that was one. I like that idea. I like the idea of Curry against New Orleans. The odds won't be great, but I still like it. And then the only other one I have is Sacramento versus the Clippers. Seems like a great De'Aaron Fox spot. So let's go with those three. Whether you want to ride with my picks or make it your own, look for 30 on 30 in the FanDuel Sportsbook app or head to fanduel.com/bs for your chance to score a bigger bet this Friday. Don't miss your chance to find out how much more 30 can be worth with FanDuel's 30 on 30. Must be 21-plus and present in select states or 18-plus in present in

• 25:31Bill Simmons?

  DC. Opt-in required. Bonus issued on non-re withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including token expiration and max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun? Sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead. But what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully, your team doesn't go to Cancun. 1-2-3 Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save. Savings vary.

• 26:14Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. If you're building an all-star breakfast lineup, you need a few key players. A sausage McMuffin with egg? Sure. Crispy hash browns? Absolutely. A small coffee to wash it all down? No question. And right now, you can get all three for just $5. That's a pretty stacked breakfast roster. Get a sausage McMuffin with egg plus hash browns and a small coffee for just $5. Only at McDonald's for a limited time. Price and participation may vary. Promotion pricing may be lower than meal pricing. Prices may be higher for delivery. All right, our old friend Peter Schrager is here. You can watch him on Good Morning Football. You can see him on Fox. The last time I saw him, we were in person doing a pod

• 26:59Bill Simmons?

  as the Jets were falling apart. And somehow that's still going. We're not going to start with them, though. We are heading into Week 12. There's a bunch of bye weeks. Thanksgiving's coming up. We're hitting that second stage of the NFL season. We know who's good. We know who's not good. We know there's going to be one surprise team coming. We have a sense of who the seven contenders are. Biggest surprise for you after 11 weeks? You can say anything. Then you're most shocked by?

• 27:24Speaker 02

  The Jets.

• 27:26Bill Simmons?

  Rick, you know the Jets. See, I feel like I picked the Jets to win the AFC East, but I also was fully aware of this alternate universe where everything went wrong, and that's what's happening.

• 27:36Speaker 02

  All right, so that, just the fact that I haven't bought into the hype over here. I live in New York. I grew up with all Jets fans. And I've never been one to say, well, this is the year. You know, they drafted Denzel Mims. This is the year. You know, they got Elijah Moore. This is going to be the year. And then I fell for it. I have said earlier-

• 27:54Bill Simmons?

  You fell for it hard. There's MVP Rogers videos of you on the internets.

• 27:59Speaker 02

  Shameful. And whoever runs that freezing takes or that old takes exposed, like, he has no, he has no problem posting that every single time the Jets lose a game of me saying that Rogers is going to be MVP.

• 28:15Bill Simmons?

  And we all have those.

• 28:17Speaker 02

  We've got them out there. It's fine. I will say this. I fell so hard this year for the Jets because I looked at the AFC and I'm like, there's an opening here. I didn't think Buffalo was going to be what they were. I had a feeling Miami would take it down. And I thought, you know, obviously, New England, I was like, this is the year there's a window. The, the seas are parting and the talent and the clip of us talking week one has gone viral again, has been reposted. And I still don't regret what I said. You go top to bottom on that roster. The names are outstanding. And I guess I got caught up in it. And it's not fantasy football. And there is something called chemistry. And when you fire your coach five weeks into the season, that's not always going to be the greatest decision.

• 28:59Speaker 02

  And at the end of the day, I fell for it hard. And I hand up, I fucked up. I was wrong. Jets suck. And it's, it's, it's, it's a shame because they're going to start, they're going to try to rebuild this thing. But By the way, everything you just said, we, we could probably just insert Sixers like as a voiceover for every piece of that. I fell for it. I didn't chemistry. I didn't realize it was going to go sideways. But we knew this was the risk with the Jets. Rogers is old. Rogers coming off major surgery. The Son Reddick thing was weird. Sala had never had a winning season. They were trying to shoehorn this Rogers thing into the Jets. They're the Jets. Bad things happen with the Jets. I fell for it too. I picked them over Buffalo. And what we, what both of us missed is what Sal nailed before the season. Yeah.

• 29:44Speaker 02

  What if this is the Josh Allen year? And now it looks like it's the Josh Allen year? He's your MVP. Through 12 weeks, Josh Allen's your MVP. And, you know, fantasy is so funny on these Sundays. I know it's like, he's, he's looking, it's shot and fraud almost. But like, his tweet is so pressing it now that he did on the day, the, the Monday of week one, where he's basically like, just having it on record right now, I think this Aaron Rodgers thing is going to be a massive failure and everyone's going to get fired at the end of the year. The only wrong thing about it was, it wasn't the end of the year, it was before even Thanksgiving. He was right. So I was wrong on the Jets. And, you know, I'll take my beating. The thing that's been a pleasant surprise, and I didn't see it coming, was what we got in Pittsburgh. And I think it's

• 30:26Speaker 02

  a really cool story. And of course, they're playing as we record this, they're playing tonight. And there's always weird things that happen on short weeks on Thursday nights. And maybe Division matchup. Yeah. Goofy weather, the whole thing. Overall, though, like if you told me that Russell Wilson was gonna take a visit with the Giants, was gonna fly commercial to Pittsburgh, was gonna sell his wares as a potential future Hall of Famer to these teams and say, who wants me? And that the Denver Broncos were gonna pay 95% of his contract this season, no matter who he went to because of what was already owed, and he would be the one leading the Pittsburgh Steelers into Thanksgiving as the one or two seed in the AFC, I would've told you, you're crazy. So.

• 31:06Bill Simmons?

  Well, you could've told me I was crazy because I predicted all of those things before the season. It's one of my best ones. Where's freezing cold takes on that?

• 31:13Speaker 02

  Come on, guys.

• 31:13Bill Simmons?

  Maybe they should have smoking hot takes should be an alternate account of people just crushing preseason picks. Where's that account?

• 31:20Speaker 02

  I met the guy.

• 31:21Bill Simmons?

  LeBron's right. And his social media too negative. Where's the positive? Where's the positive stuff about the media? Come on, LeBron.

• 31:27Speaker 02

  LeBron's out. LeBron's out on social media.

• 31:29Bill Simmons?

  He does this every year. It's like when my wife gets mad at one of her friends and she's like, I'm not talking to her again. And then six weeks later, they're hanging out.

• 31:35Speaker 02

  28 years on social media. Now LeBron is out. It's just too toxic. The guy's name was Fred Segal. That's who does the freezing cold takes. And I got, and he like reached out to me, came on Good Morning Football. He did a book. I'm like, I love this guy. Now he's trying to murder my career. And just everything comes out.

• 31:50Bill Simmons?

  Well, I think he's an equal opportunity murderer is where he's fashioned himself. I gotta say, the most shocking thing for me is Buffalo. It's, I'm not shocked that they're, you know, gonna get to 10 wins because that was, if you were picking the Jets over them, I thought there was only gonna be one AFC East playoff team. And I just thought the Jets had more stacked their way than Buffalo in this goofy year they're having. So Buffalo winning the AFC East and the Jets stinking, not that surprising to me. But Buffalo being good is surprising. I don't really fully understand it. I don't know enough about like the mechanics of how you get a defense going that seems pretty flimsy. And yet, when you watch them, like hats on the ball, sideline locked in,

• 32:33Bill Simmons?

  really well coached, really seems like they're across the board locked in, don't really have any weaknesses, which is crazy because they've had a lot of attrition, they've had injuries. And I just don't fully understand it. Like weird rookie receivers and young receivers or never did it before receivers, a hodgepodge running game with a bunch of running backs. I just don't fully get it.

• 32:54Speaker 02

  They're so good. And what they've done is they've like, they've they've found ways to win games that they used to lose. So that Chiefs game, of course, they've beaten the Chiefs three different times in the regular season. But like, there was that window where it's like, okay, here comes Kansas City. And after the third and one, that they go, I think they handed it to Ty Johnson for a one yard loss.

• 33:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 33:17Speaker 02

  Bad play. You're like, all right, fourth and two. Now, remember last year in the playoffs, they trotted out the punt team and they ran a fake punt with Damar Hamlin on fourth down. And that one was justifiable in that they couldn't stop Kansas City. Kansas City was going up and down the field. I think Mahomes scored in five of six possessions. Like, all right, we did. Fine. McDermott took a beating. He became a punching bag. Everyone made their jokes. They had the courage to say, you know what? Screw it. We're going for it again. And if we fail and come up short and we lose, like, we'll deal with it on Monday morning.

• 33:47Bill Simmons?

  Do you think that was courage, though? Because sometimes I'm like, why are they doing this? But usually I'm saying, why are they doing this when your quarterback's like Jameis Winston? Right? Or you're, or you have like a rookie quarterback. You're like, why are they doing this? They're not good.

• 33:59Speaker 02

  They're up to, they're up to.

• 34:01Bill Simmons?

  I like, I like it. I thought Romo, Romo sniffed it out. He's like, give the ball to Josh. Let him decide the game. I was like, I actually agree. Let him decide the game.

• 34:09Speaker 02

  And of course, it works out. And Josh is Superman. And that's an amazing, it's one of the all time, like, event rivalry. That's a play that like, goes on the list. If they'd kicked a field goal, and they'd gone up five, it reminds me a little bit of LaFleur against the Buccaneers in that AFC championship, NFC championship game a few years back, where it's like, we just got to stop them once and we get the ball back. They didn't want to do that. And that, that's with scar tissue from the year before of not wanting to do that and getting burned on it with that fake punt. So McDermott.

• 34:37Bill Simmons?

  But you know what? That was, it was a risky non-risk because they had like a five game lead in the AFC East. It's like, like, you lose that game. It's like, all right. So maybe we're going to be a three seed instead of a two seed. Like, but they, it really wasn't, wasn't a massive risk. Like, if the Ravens did something like that this week, when they're seven and four. You know, and it's a must win game against the Chargers, a little more, little higher stakes on that one than I think Buffalo.

• 35:03Speaker 02

  Yeah, I, I also think it was a gift for, for us in our world as a media because Kansas City wins that, then they have a three game lead over Buffalo, plus the tiebreaker. And it's like, all right, we've already got our playoff pictures wide open now.

• 35:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 35:18Speaker 02

  And Buffalo.

• 35:18Bill Simmons?

  Christmas Day is not gonna suck.

• 35:20Speaker 02

  Christmas Day games is like an AFC semifinals. You've got the Texans and the Ravens, and you've got the Steelers and the Chiefs. So I, I think it, it was a huge game. It was a huge win. And as much as Josh Allen downplayed it, and I know a lot of people on Monday morning, our guy Kyle Brandt was like, as a Bills guy, he's like, that was nothing. Like, stop. Like, don't make a big deal out of this. It was a, it was a week 11 game. In a hundred years, we'll forget about it. I felt the opposite. And traditionally, I'm the Chiefs guy. I pick the Chiefs to win every year. And I've, I've made a lot of bones in the playoffs. And, you know, they're going on the road to Baltimore. They're gonna win. They're going on the road to Buffalo last year. They're gonna win. I, I thought that one, I felt like Buffalo was the better team. They were, they were more dynamic. They felt like they had more deep

• 36:02Speaker 02

  threats. And gosh, I thought they were better coached, too. So I, I thought that was a big win for Buffalo.

• 36:08Bill Simmons?

  Drew grew with my theory that they kept Kelsey in the garage for that game.

• 36:12Speaker 02

  The Ferrari. I heard you talking about that with Sal.

• 36:15Bill Simmons?

  It felt like, uh, let's, let's not show all our cards in this game, game by then. The thing I was most concerned about with the Chiefs, and, and especially like listening to some pods and reading stuff over the next couple of days after the game, their tackles might not be good.

• 36:29Speaker 02

  Mm hmm.

• 36:30Bill Simmons?

  Right? And they figured out a way to, to kind of, you know, Scotch tape shit together. We've seen them do this a million times. But it seems like both tackles aren't really any good now. And I don't know if they can get something going from there. But from an offensive line standpoint, this feels like the shakiest they've been, right?

• 36:48Speaker 02

  Yeah. And, and look, the last time their tackles gave us those questions was going to the Super Bowl against the Buccaneers and they didn't have, they didn't have Fisher, they didn't have Schwartz. And we're like, all right, but they'll figure it out. And then the Buccaneers, you know, obviously it manhandled them at the line of scrimmage and then my whole loss.

• 37:03Bill Simmons?

  By the way, where's freezing cold takes for that guy? We have multiple videos of us guaranteeing a Bucks Super Bowl win. I don't see, I don't see him digging those up.

• 37:10Speaker 02

  Jesus. Freddie Segal. Um, anyway, the, uh, The, the other part of it is like, you know, they throw that, they tried to get worthy involved early and I was like, it's a little bit of this being chippy. Like, you know, the Bills traded us this guy. We're gonna get, we're gonna get worthy involved. Then worthy steps out of bounds when he has the whole field, one foot and you're like, that's not Chiefs football. Like, that doesn't go that way. So.

• 37:34Bill Simmons?

  By the way, that was Patriots football is what it was. I've watched that all year. Wide open guy stepping out of bounds, terrible blocking, stupid strategies. That's Pat's football right now.

• 37:45Speaker 02

  I get worried about the Chiefs with that because their defense has led the way for them. Their special teams has been awesome. Now Buckers down and now the Spencer Schrager's gonna have to make a couple of big kicks. We'll see. But like, who's scaring you besides Mahomes? And you could say it's because, hey, when you need him, Kelsey's gonna go 10 for 120 with two touchdowns. Maybe? He hasn't been that guy. I know he had a couple of big statistical games the last few weeks, but like, I don't think Kelsey's doing like he was doing it a couple of years ago. And then, you know, he's throwing the ball to Noah Gray and Justin Watson and Juju, like, and Xavier Worthy is a nice deep threat, but I just don't know if this Chiefs team has enough firepower. And it sounds crazy to say that with an Andy Reid offense that has Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

• 38:27Bill Simmons?

  We said it last year in December. It was one of the, I mean, I think they're bottom three explosive plays this year, which seems crazy for our Mahomes team. Like, if you have Mahomes in fantasy, hasn't gone great, but we watched them reinvent themselves after that Christmas game, Christmas Eve game, whatever that was against the Raiders.

• 38:46Speaker 02

  15 straight after.

• 38:47Bill Simmons?

  And they immediately reinvent themselves. They're also, they're built, when the weather gets colder, that's gonna be good for them too. I don't think it's gonna be as good for some of the other teams. So I'm not, I'm not panicking. And by the way, they almost won the game. And I do think if Worthy hadn't stepped out of bounds, they probably win the game. But on the other hand, you're relying on Worthy in these big spots.

• 39:05Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 39:05Bill Simmons?

  It's gonna be the same situation in January, but.

• 39:07Speaker 02

  Who did you, who'd you have Super Bowl? You had Lions winning it all?

• 39:11Bill Simmons?

  I had, I ended up with Lions over Texans.

• 39:14Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 39:14Bill Simmons?

  And then, right before the season.

• 39:18Bill Simmons?

  I felt like the Chiefs had become undervalued and I did a Lions Chiefs, Lions Chiefs, Super Bowl bet. That was like 30. All the Lions stuff is gonna hit. One seed, NFC North. Like, I think that's been the least surprising thing is the Lions kinda, they were, were who they thought they, it was the opposite of Danny Green. The Lions were who we thought they were.

• 39:37Speaker 02

  They were who they thought they were. I did Chiefs over Packers and my Packers caveat was, and I'm not done with that. And my Packers caveat was they're gonna do it as a wild card because the Lions are gonna be the one seed and gonna run away with this thing. So that's all still in play. Detroit.

• 39:52Bill Simmons?

  But one thing on the Packers, we're gonna know this weekend, I think. We're gonna have a real feeling because they have a nice game against the Niners that they should win. We're gonna be talking about a million dollar picks later. That's, if, if something good is gonna happen to them in January, I need them to win the Niners game. And if they don't, I'm gonna be, uh, probably, probably tapping out.

• 40:10Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah. The Lions have been an interesting one because it's been like this locomotive and they really will be one of the only teams in the league in 2024 where everyone's buddy and exchanging jerseys. Like they'll snap your neck. They don't care. Like, they, I saw a stat. They scored more than 50 points three times from the year 1920 to the year 2023. They've already scored more than 50 points twice this year and they have embarrassed teams. And they've also won close games, which is obviously the Vikings game with Jake Bates hitting those fields and then the comeback game with against the Texans. So they've won in a variety of different ways.

• 40:49Bill Simmons?

  The five pick game.

• 40:50Speaker 02

  Yeah, where they overcame Goff's, you know, five interceptions and still had a found away. So like, I kinda like it that it's not just been 07 Patriots or 2013 Broncos where they just ripped every team apart. Like, they've been in games too and they've won those as well.

• 41:07Bill Simmons?

  And some adversity. It's not like everything went great this year. They lost Hutchinson, who's the best defensive front four guy in the league. They lost their defensive captain two weeks ago though. I liked the David Loggs signing. I thought that was, I was surprised he got waived. I liked him a couple of years ago. Jameson Williams got suspended. Goff had the five pick game. You know, it hasn't been perfect, but they're doing the, they're almost like a college football team, some games. They're not just beating teams. They're like absolutely select. When you score seven straight touchdowns to start a game, that's like, you're on a different level at that point.

• 41:41Speaker 02

  Seven straight possessions. It's wild.

• 41:44Bill Simmons?

  Well, have you seen the Super Bowl ads?

• 41:46Speaker 02

  It's the first time ever in their history. Now, I don't know how far back these gambling sites go, but I saw it was the first time ever that they are the Super Bowl favorite, ever.

• 41:54Bill Simmons?

  It has to be. I mean, with Eric Kramer and Barry Sanders, I don't, I don't think they're the favorites. Yeah, they're plus 350 right now. The Chiefs are 5 to 1. The Bills are plus 650. And then the Eagles are sitting there at 8 to 1. Houston's at 17 to 1. It's, it, it does feel a little hodgepodgey. Like you look at some of the Super Bowl matchups, because they have all the different matchups and it's like, you know, let's say, let's say, I still feel like the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, until they have actually lost the Super Bowl, it's still in my head. I'm always going to be afraid of that one for a Lions thing, but the Chiefs to beat the Lions is 14 to 1. But you look at some of these other dopey ones, like, Chiefs to beat Arizona is 85 to 1.

• 42:40Bill Simmons?

  It's not insane that Arizona could make the Super. I'm, I'm not really not ruling out anyone is my point. As good as Detroit's looked, I'm not ruling out anyone. I'm just not.

• 42:49Speaker 02

  Well, it's just that with Detroit, it's like, all right, let's say they have home field advantage. They won two playoff games there last year. They beat the Rams and they beat the Bucks. They did fine. And then they went on the road and lost. And it's like, how it usually works is you don't, with the rare exception of maybe the Eagles a couple of years ago with Foles, or like the 99 Rams, where you just come out of literally nowhere and you're like, we're, we're just going to win a Super Bowl. We're going to, usually you have to go through the progression of, you go and you go to the playoffs and you lose a tough one and then you win the other round.

• 43:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 43:17Speaker 02

  Did it. So like, it's all there for them. I just have thoughts of Dan Campbell, time management, game management, close game, late, going up against a McVay, going up against maybe a Kyle Shanahan, who everyone has their own issues with at the end of games, but like, has been there also time and time again. It's that kind of stuff that it's an intangible and you can't do it until you do it. But just as so many teams have gotten to the precipice and had to lose a couple of times before they got to that over the hump, maybe this is Detroit needing one more year. We'll see.

• 43:53Bill Simmons?

  That was my case when I picked them, that there's like actual history. And I think there were four different instances of the team that got really close the year before, learned, you know, learned something and then was able to apply it and either win the Super Bowl or come really close. And I think it happened like five times in the last 15 years.

• 44:09Speaker 02

  Remember the Ravens lost to you guys, Lee Evans dropped the pass and then Billy

• 44:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 44:13Speaker 02

  Cundiff misses the field goal. Yeah. And then the very next year, they're like, screw it. They go into Foxborough, they beat you guys. And then they go in and win the Super Bowl. Like that's a recent memory of a team that had to lose and then found a way to win, you know?

• 44:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Let's, uh, let's take a break and we'll, there's a lot more to discuss.

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• 46:20Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by PayPal. The holiday rush is coming and you can get ahead of it with PayPal. Shop your favorite online stores with PayPal this season like eBay for collectibles, Fanatics for team gear, Walmart for tech. Check out the flexibility to pay now or pay later and split your payments with Pay in four with no interest, no late fees. Shop now with PayPal. Paying for subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com slash paying for PayPal, Inc. NMLS 910457. Well, now we hit the portion of the podcast where I make my guests talk about Drake May for 60 seconds. This is unbelievable. This whole week, watching football Twitter, people like Orlovsky weighed in a couple

• 47:05Bill Simmons?

  of times, all the football experts, like, uh, who's the guy Colin has? Cosell? He came in.

• 47:12Speaker 02

  Film guy.

• 47:13Bill Simmons?

  All the film guys are coming in like, you guys don't realize what Drake May is doing right now. You don't understand what's happening here. I've been going nuts. I, I can't, I did this the most I've texted about the Pats since like the flake eight. This is the most excited I've been. F minus coaching staff, no receivers, can't really block, running backs that can't do anything. So I just, this is where I make my guests talk about Drake May. So talk about Drake May.

• 47:38Speaker 02

  He's been unbelievable and I talked to McVay Monday morning.

• 47:42Bill Simmons?

  Oh, McVay was another one. Gosh.

• 47:44Speaker 02

  They called him a stud in that press conference and I hit up Sean just to talk about, you know, their game, whatever. And then I also said like, let's talk to me. And he was just like, that guy, I mean, they got their guy. That guy's unbelievable. Like what a, what a performance. And the stat I got from my researcher at Good Morning Football, great guy named Dante, says this was the second time in May's career that he threw the ball 40 times or more, completed at 70% of his passes. And only two other rookies in the history of the sport have done that. And it's Justin Herbert and it's Joe Burrow and like Drake May's already done it twice. Like this, we're talking, and he does 95% of the offense, which you've noted, like, it's just a throw it on my shoulders, I'll figure it out.

• 48:25Bill Simmons?

  And they're not even running the right plays for him. Like half the time you're like, what was that? Why'd we do that? What are we doing?

• 48:32Speaker 02

  He's, he's doing it with, with talent that might not be starting on other NFL rosters, which is, I think a kind thing to say. The offensive line leaves a lot to be desired. The coaching isn't exactly.

• 48:44Bill Simmons?

  The offensive line, like Cole Strange is coming back. We're like, Cole Strange is coming back. Like, he's back, baby. We have another guard.

• 48:53Speaker 02

  It's coming. Uh, it's been really cool to see. In fact, this whole rookie class and not to get off the, the Drake May conversation.

• 49:00Bill Simmons?

  No, we're good. You gave me a minute. We can move on now.

• 49:02Speaker 02

  They've all had, they've all had their moments and like, as great as Drake May was in the early window on Sunday, I know everyone was watching Bill's, Bill's Chiefs, like Bo Nix was fucking amazing.

• 49:13Bill Simmons?

  He's gotten better every week for like six weeks.

• 49:15Speaker 02

  And, and Moose Johnston was doing the game and he dropped his little nugget and I'm like, oh, I don't, I didn't know that. Like Moose is like, we spoke to Sean Payton in the production meeting, which we always talk about the value of the production meeting, whether you're there or you're not, believe it or not. And he's like, and he said he liked Nix more than all these rookie quarterbacks in the draft. I'm like, that's crazy. He was the sixth one taken. Like, yet I believe it. It's the perfect match. There was no crazy ramp up period for him. He's 26 years old. He's played in 61 college games. He's seen it all. He's played at big programs, Auburn and Oregon. He's had failure. He's had success. He's done the senior bowl. Sean Payton does not want to work with a raw product, an unpolished guy that he's got to like frustrate himself with. He wants him

• 49:59Speaker 02

  to run his offense as like an avatar of himself. Like here's what you're going to do and do it. There was a pass he had to Courtland Sutton where it was a play action pass, rolled right, pumped it twice and then like dropped it in the bucket to Sutton over A.J. Terrell. And I'm like, that's a 10 year vet play that he just did and he's doing it. So I say all this because May's having moments, Nix is having moments. Of course we did Jaden, Caleb's been good and we don't know what we're going to get from Penix and Cartney.

• 50:23Bill Simmons?

  Caleb's been, okay.

• 50:24Speaker 02

  Caleb's had moments. He's been sacked.

• 50:26Bill Simmons?

  Okay. He looked pretty good last year.

• 50:28Speaker 02

  Been sacked 44 times. It's the most since David Carr in his rookie year. Like I, Caleb, I can give Caleb a lot of mulligans on this season. I feel like he's been given a tough draw this whole way, whether it be the offensive line play.

• 50:40Bill Simmons?

  Wasn't tougher than Drake May.

• 50:43Speaker 02

  Fair, fair. And you saw what Gruden said. Gruden said he'd rather have Drake May than Caleb. I'm like, it's all over the map.

• 50:49Bill Simmons?

  I loved it. Gruden, we invited him to Superstar Drake May Island. We're hitting out condos right now. Orlovsky has one.

• 50:57Speaker 02

  But I do have to ask you, did we not, okay, and I'm not trying to go and be viral for, for everyone else here, but did we not go down this road with Mac Jones, you and I before, but this one feels a little different?

• 51:07Bill Simmons?

  It feels, it's completely different.

• 51:10Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 51:10Bill Simmons?

  Mac Jones, it was like really good game manager. This guy can keep us going. He can make some throws. And this Drake May thing, he's doing it despite literally everybody else in every fashion. And I also think, seems like he's won the locker room over too already.

• 51:25Speaker 02

  And how about, he gets to the press conference two weeks ago. He's like, everyone put your phones down. I would just like to say, how about that defense? So let's clap it up. I'm like, this is a 22 year old kid.

• 51:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Now he's, he's figured out all those pieces and you could tell like from the other coaches and the players that are going against them, some of the quotes, whereas like with Mac, it was like, yeah, he's pretty good. You know, it's like, it was, it was never like this, but Mac, I don't know what happened to Mac. I still feel like there's a sliding doors universe. And it really kind of started when Belichick benched him for a lot of that win, that win Buffalo game. Remember that, his rookie year when it was like 49 hour wins?

• 52:02Speaker 02

  Monday night.

• 52:02Bill Simmons?

  It was kind of never the same, but there was a, he played at Colts, I think on a Sunday night. And the Colts just defended him a certain way. And it was like, it immediately broke him. They just like, they were like, throw over us.

• 52:13Speaker 02

  I think I remember, I think it was a Saturday game.

• 52:16Bill Simmons?

  Saturday game maybe was.

• 52:17Speaker 02

  It was a Saturday night game on NFL Network and like the Colts just, the defense and the, and the special teams won the game for the Colts. And it was like, oh, there's, that's him. I, I would add, you know, with, with, with Drake May, and you and I have talked about this, I'm not sure on this podcast or just you and I talking like, the Patriots, they love this guy in the building and it goes from top to bottom, front office on like, I know the impression he made because I know a lot of the folks in that building. When he signed his rookie contract, he showed up and all his brothers showed up and his high school girlfriend showed up. And it was like this big deal. And like, I, I got a text from someone in the building like, That's such a Schrager stupid and tangible thing that if he stinks like, what was the point of him talking about it?

• 53:00Speaker 02

  Like, they loved it. They're like, this is what we want. We want someone who like wants to put his roots down here and we can just build around this guy. And he is as loyal as it comes to family, to his friends, to his faith. It's all the right stuff on paper. And then now you see it on the field and it's like, oh, these guys are going to rally behind this guy for 10 years.

• 53:18Bill Simmons?

  He's, when Nate Tice was comparing to Elway, that was like the comp, because I couldn't quite get there with the Josh Allen because it was big enough. All right, we talked too much about him. I can't wait 10 years from now when he's bitter because 93 year old Kraft is spending the least amount of money on the team out of the 32 owners. It's like, I don't know. Like, right now, he's like in that young, loyal puppy stage that is just so great to.

• 53:40Speaker 02

  I do, I do like, I do like how this team has responded, you know, and we go back and forth. I know. You're, you're, you're the Patriots voice, but like Belichick and Lombardi and, and Patricia were feeling themselves a little bit after that soft comment. And they were joking and they were making their snide comments and I felt it. I understand. Uh, they've won a couple of games and the players who they've been playing for Mayo, whether or not he's an X's and O's genius, or they have ping pong in the locker room or what? This has been vacillating back and forth. There is, there's obviously Kraft and Belichick lines here and it's like, I don't know where I am on it, but.

• 54:14Bill Simmons?

  Well, this was a better argument a week ago. The coaching last week was an F minus, minus, minus.

• 54:19Speaker 02

  I know.

• 54:20Bill Simmons?

  It was probably the worst coaching they've had all year. So.

• 54:22Speaker 02

  I said it straight up, it's not been good, but like.

• 54:24Bill Simmons?

  They're a live dog this week though. They're plus seven in Miami and I don't know. I just think week to week, they're going to be really hard to predict because they easily could have beaten the Rams last week.

• 54:34Speaker 02

  Dude, they were up on the Rams.

• 54:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. By the way, let's talk about the Rams for a second because you're pretty wired in with them.

• 54:40Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 54:41Bill Simmons?

  Pretty lucky to beat the Pats, a team that made a ton of mistakes, that the, the coaching was abysmal. Then they're playing the Eagles this week.

• 54:51Bill Simmons?

  And all my instincts should be like, nah, I'm taking the Eagles. The Rams are kind of fraudulent. And yet I kind of like McVeigh against the Eagles. I don't know why. I don't know what it is, but him against Fangio like, I love the way Stafford played last week. I thought he was awesome. Like their receivers are back.

• 55:07Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 55:08Bill Simmons?

  They can run the ball. Williams is really crafty.

• 55:11Speaker 02

  Oh dude.

• 55:11Bill Simmons?

  There were times when it felt like the Pats had him behind the line and he would just figure out how to get five yards anyway, but uh, and then their defensive line can, can really collapse the pocket and do some stuff. So, I look at that. I think that's one of the hardest games to figure out. I don't know if I'm going to be putting a million dollar picks, but are the Rams a playoff team to you?

• 55:29Speaker 02

  Hmm. That loss to Miami on Monday night football is really a slap in the face to everyone who got on that bandwagon. That's maybe the worst loss any team's had this season. It's just surprising. Like you, you had a couple of wins in a row. You're back in this thing. And then here come this Dolphins team who just kicked their ass on national television in their building. Patriots, they should have won. They did win. It wasn't easy. You get back to this one now. What the testament to the Rams is that Aaron Donald retires and you know, the thought is their defense is going to go down. They drafted verse. He's probably your defensive player of the year from the rookie side.

• 56:01Bill Simmons?

  All over the place. Every week. All over the place.

• 56:03Speaker 02

  He's awesome.

• 56:06Bill Simmons?

  Raving about him.

• 56:08Speaker 02

  Braden Fisk's the other one, also from Florida State, second rounder. Their third round pick was Cam Kitchens, who's had two huge picks this season. The pick six against Seattle and another interception that game. And then the game winning interception against you guys last week. And they got this guy Omar Spates who's undrafted. It wears number 48 and is all over the field and had the big fourth down stop against Seattle in overtime. Now, what I'm saying is with all this, it's like, you could do the F them picks. And you can be super aggressive and you can go and make, you better nail the draft. And they have nailed the draft and they've found a way to recover from Aaron Donald retiring and no first round picks for the last seven years. They've been really good with these guys.

• 56:47Bill Simmons?

  On that point, McVeigh said something interesting about how they didn't really scout May because they knew they had no chance at them. And I was wondering like, is that an advantage? When you either don't have first round picks at all. So there's people like you're not even, you might as well just cross off 40 guys. You know, you're not going to get, or you're just concentrating on a certain portion of the draft versus like having to think about every round. I do wonder if that's kind of a weird advantage that you wouldn't want, but you kind of stumble into.

• 57:12Speaker 02

  Sean had a really fun time this draft period. Now, quarterback was not going to happen. They were fine with quarterback with Stafford, but like this was his first first round pick ever. So he was super excited. And I said on Good Morning Football, I'm like, there is no chance that in his first time making a first round pick, Sean McVay isn't taking an offensive player. Sure enough, they took Jared verse. They took a defensive guy second round. Egg on my face. The guy that he loved though, and I can say it now, and it's, it's been reported. They loved Brock Bowers, the tight end out of Georgia. They loved him. And when he started slipping, McVay was getting the, the, the snappy fingers and like that. Well, what can we do? What can we do? I believe they've made some phone calls to move up to get Bowers.

• 57:54Speaker 02

  It's a great what if, because Brock Bowers is now having the best rookie tight end season ever on an irrelevant team.

• 57:59Bill Simmons?

  10 to 13 targets a week on an awful team.

• 58:02Speaker 02

  Unbelievable.

• 58:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 58:03Speaker 02

  And, and the fact is though, is what you're saying, they weren't going quarterback, but like McVay finally had a chance to look at blue chip talent, first round talent in a real way. Not in a, well, there's a chance someone might slip or we might trade up. And he really enjoyed the process. So as much as an advantage as it might be to, to have a second round pick and not have to worry about the first round. So you can look at deeper cut, like lower. It was, it was cool for him to get that. And then the scouts, they were all in on verse. Credit to Les Snead and his guys, like if verse falls that far, like we've got to find a way to get a new cornerstone defensive player. And I think they found him.

• 58:39Bill Simmons?

  Well, there was that one year when they didn't have Cole's, they were looking at Cole Strange, because they were like picking in the third round and the Pats took him. And McVay's like, wait, Cole Strange just went in the first round? We were looking at him and regretful moment. Oh my God, we might've fucked that pick up. McVay stunned that this guy went in the top 30.

• 58:56Speaker 02

  He came out the next day and was like, no, no, no, no, no, no, that's not what I was saying. What I was saying was we were actually, I'm like, I don't, I don't think they had Cole.

• 59:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that, nobody's believed you on that one. But the flip side was he came all the way around on Jake Bay. So the Rams are plus 360 to make the playoffs. That seems tough. Seattle is plus 290 to make the playoffs. Arizona is minus 140 to make the playoffs. And then the most shocking one to me, which isn't that shocking, is the Niners plus money right now, plus 176. I want to talk about them really quick.

• 59:34Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah.

• 59:36Bill Simmons?

  McCaffrey doesn't look like McCaffrey.

• 59:38Speaker 02

  Nope, didn't look.

• 59:39Bill Simmons?

  And it's, the Niners are the classic, oh, if I, if I saw this sheet of paper, I'm like, whoa, they have a lot of good guys. But if you actually watch the games, like, Ayuk's gone. Kittle's, Kittle missed last week, so he's hit the George Kittle red flag stage of his season, which happens every year. Debo's been hurt a bunch of times already. Jawan Jennings had to make big plays last week, but McCaffrey just didn't seem special to me last week. And I don't know if it's going to take some time to come back, or is this who he is? I don't think their offensive line is as good. I don't think their defense is as good. And I feel like they're still getting basically last year's value being treated that way versus what I'm watching.

• 1:00:20Speaker 02

  I don't think it's just last year. I think it's the institutional knowledge that over the last five years, they've started off being like, three and four, two and three, four and four, and then they, they turn it on and they get to the playoffs and they're a really hard team to beat in the playoffs. I too am watching them though, last week against Seattle, and Nick Bosa clearly hurt. It's a hip.

• 1:00:41Bill Simmons?

  Another one.

• 1:00:42Speaker 02

  It's an oblique, clearly not himself. You don't have Eric Armstead out there anymore. You're now a couple of years removed from, from not having Buckner out there anymore. All of a sudden, you look around and you're like, I don't even recognize this defense. It's Fred Warner doing everything he can, as he always does. It's an injured Bosa, and it's a bunch of younger guys on the back end. And it's like, I'm not scared of this defense like I used to be when it was D'Amico Ryans and Robert Sala marching up and down the sidelines, puffing out their chest. To give up an 80 yard drive to Geno Smith after you held them most of the game, and then especially that final play is like, head scratching, not their way. What's killing them is they lost a terrible, terrible loss in Los Angeles where the receiver

• 1:01:25Speaker 02

  Bell drops a pass that would have put the game away at 21 to 7. That's in a division. They lost to the Cardinals, that's in the division. They've now lost to the Seahawks in the division. You gotta really dig yourself out of the hole because I think their best way to the playoffs is going to be winning that division. Huge, massive, massive game this weekend against the Packers. And to your point, They usually own the Packers and Shanahan's had good numbers against LaFleur. I think he's four and two all time, but I go to the big games. I go to playoff games and

• 1:01:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:01:54Speaker 02

  I think Raheem Mostert just scored another touchdown from the NFC championship game back in 2020. I remember a couple of years ago on a Saturday night, everyone Rogers was public enemy number one with the COVID stuff. And everyone was taking shots at him and he comes in as the one seed and the Niners come in with, with Trent Williams in a boombox out of the locker room and they beat them in Lambeau and shocked the one seed on a Saturday night. And it's like, the Niners just have their number. I don't know if it's that same Niners team. The faces might be the same. The coach might still be the same, but like, do I have any confidence that that 49er squad that I've seen the last few weeks, limp to victories and just get by in their wins and then lose strange games they never lose. It's going to come in and just push around the Packers? I don't.

• 1:02:37Bill Simmons?

  One more piece. Packers almost beat them in that playoff game when it was a healthier Niners team.

• 1:02:43Speaker 02

  Last year?

• 1:02:43Bill Simmons?

  Probably should have won.

• 1:02:44Speaker 02

  Yeah. Bad kicking, huh?

• 1:02:46Bill Simmons?

  Little revenge game for them in this one. And I'm with you. I think the Packers, I think the ceiling of the team versus what we've seen. I still believe in the ceiling and I don't think they've played that well. And I think they've had some weird stuff happen, really starting with that crazy Brazil game.

• 1:03:02Speaker 02

  It was, it's a weird way to start the season.

• 1:03:03Bill Simmons?

  And they got super lucky last week against the Bears. They're also playing, one thing that worries me about that game for them is they're, they're playing on Thursday night too. They're playing the Dolphins, right? So this huge game at home against the Niners, but you also know that other game is kind of lingering.

• 1:03:21Speaker 02

  It's a Thanksgiving evening.

• 1:03:23Bill Simmons?

  Thanksgiving night.

• 1:03:24Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:03:25Bill Simmons?

  And I always wondered like the game before the game, the good news is they're playing the Dolphins that game. Pretty mediocre Thanksgiving.

• 1:03:30Speaker 02

  Dolphins have won a couple of games in a row now.

• 1:03:32Bill Simmons?

  No, I know. Yeah, but now they got Drake May coming to Miami. There's also some weird weather stuff this week too.

• 1:03:37Speaker 02

  Oh, there's snow, snow in Green Bay. Jordan Love leads the league in interceptions. Like you're not wrong, like they don't look crisp and then. Before the season.

• 1:03:47Bill Simmons?

  Something like Dobbs got suspended for a game like there's been it looked a little gamey at times, right?

• 1:03:53Speaker 02

  And, and like, you know, I don't know if this is a positive or negative now in the early 2000s, the Patriots had this where it was like, you didn't really have a true number one wide receiver and the floor said that before the season, like I, we, I look at all those guys, number ones, but every week it's like Jaden Reed's week, then it's Dobbs this week and last week, Watson went nuts. Um, so I kind of liked that.

• 1:04:13Bill Simmons?

  There was a Tucker Kraft week.

• 1:04:15Speaker 02

  Oh, Tucker Kraft, he killed the Rams and then the next week had two touchdowns.

• 1:04:18Bill Simmons?

  Like he does nothing anymore.

• 1:04:21Speaker 02

  It's okay. It's all right. He'll find us saying Josh Jacobs, obviously is a weapon and like, we could just list names, but to me it's, they haven't even come close to gelling on offense yet and they're still seven and three and they're perfectly where you want to be like, let the Lions get all the headlines, let the Vikings be sitting there with a tiebreaker over that, like, let that be there and then stretch run. Here comes the come running team and the come running team might very well be the Packers who got their shit together at the right time.

• 1:04:48Bill Simmons?

  Right. Maybe as a five seed, maybe as a six seed.

• 1:04:53Bill Simmons?

  We're aligned on this one. I, there's a scenario in my head this weekend where I'm trying to think of the narratives on Monday morning as you're staring at Kyle.

• 1:05:01Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:05:02Bill Simmons?

  Where it's like Packers, whoa, do we believe this? Um, Niners, oh no, like they're not going to make the playoffs. Holy shit. And then there's this sneaky Lions game and I'm going to, full disclosure, I'm putting the Lions in a tease, but it does have like,

• 1:05:21Speaker 02

  Does it scare you?

• 1:05:22Bill Simmons?

  It's a little sneaky, just it's a little sneaky because Richardson, I thought played pretty well last week and I thought in general the Colts played pretty well and you know, everyone's so high in the Lions right now, coming off this giant win and, uh, I think they can run the ball over them. I'm not worried about it, but I was just wondering like, could this be?

• 1:05:39Speaker 02

  One of these weeks.

• 1:05:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we're like, hey, Packers only a game back.

• 1:05:43Speaker 02

  Totally. And like one of these weeks, the Lions are going to have that game, but gosh, they, I thought the Titans might've come because Titans came in with the number one defense. They let them up. I thought the Jaguars may be playing for Doug Peterson's job with all that stuff beforehand. No.

• 1:05:57Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I'm glad you brought him up. Um, cause that was the thing I was, that was the thing I was the most wrong about this season was, uh, I was like the Jets, I walked in with, with eyes wide open, fully knowing it was 50 50. I really believed this in the Jags as. And AFC playoff team.

• 1:06:15Speaker 02

  So did I.

• 1:06:16Bill Simmons?

  So did I. And for me, it came down to them versus Denver for that last spot and I couldn't get there with Denver because of the defense. Ironically, their defense statistically has been awesome.

• 1:06:25Speaker 02

  Great.

• 1:06:26Bill Simmons?

  If you looked at it before the season, it's like, I don't see it. What's in here? And I thought Jacksonville, meanwhile, it's been the opposite. They're one of the five worst teams in the league. Doug's doing the dead man walking. They didn't even fire him after a 52 to six loss.

• 1:06:38Speaker 02

  They still might. Like, we're doing this on Thursday. They've got bye week. Like, I don't know how that's gonna go down.

• 1:06:43Bill Simmons?

  Well, this is going up fast. So maybe if this happens Thursday night, the pot of oil would be up. So you think it's still in play?

• 1:06:49Speaker 02

  I think it's still in play. I think after that loss on Sunday and all the reports that aren't coming from nobody that he was on, he was on the death watch anyway. Like, they have a bye week. Who knows what the cons have going on this week? They might be wrestling or something else going on that they wanted to deal with in the first part of the week. But like, I certainly don't think I would be sleeping great if I'm Doug Peterson.

• 1:07:12Bill Simmons?

  No, he knows.

• 1:07:13Speaker 02

  Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Like, he knows what's going on.

• 1:07:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, he's got a statue.

• 1:07:18Bill Simmons?

  Are there any other coaching situations we should just be monitoring? Maybe guys not about to get fired, but situations that

• 1:07:26Bill Simmons?

  seem a little rockier than maybe it seems to the outside. Like, are we cool with Cleveland these days? What's going on there?

• 1:07:33Speaker 02

  It's fine in Cleveland. Two-time coach of the year, and I know the relationship he has with ownership and there's like full trust in him. So I think he's fine. There was a erroneous report that Dable was on the hot seat. I don't think that's true. I think Dable's set in New York.

• 1:07:50Bill Simmons?

  Bears? Do we watch the Bears the next couple of weeks? Or is that already a rap?

• 1:07:54Speaker 02

  We watch the Bears. We see how they respond. Anytime you fire a coordinator and things don't get better, the next person is not the coordinator. Like, that's the stuff that we look at there.

• 1:08:07Bill Simmons?

  Should I start doing that? Should I start firing inner circle people when I don't like what's going on to deflect blame? Does that work in the outside world?

• 1:08:15Speaker 02

  Not your fault.

• 1:08:16Bill Simmons?

  I don't know what's going on over there. That's it. This is

• 1:08:20Speaker 02

  This podcast is a

• 1:08:21Bill Simmons?

  Weird strategy. I know. I've had to change my offensive coordinator. You're the head coach.

• 1:08:27Speaker 02

  You know, the sick part about that was Thomas Brown called a really nice game for the Bears last week and like Caleb looked good and energy was hot and it's all for not like they still lost.

• 1:08:36Bill Simmons?

  Well, but, but think about one of the things like in the stories and the dialogue after it's like Thomas Brown simplified it for Caleb, wanted to get rid of the ball fast. He got rid of the ball within three seconds. It's like, why didn't you do that three weeks ago? I could have, you could have asked me, just called me, cold called me. I would have told you he was holding on the ball too long.

• 1:08:52Speaker 02

  Like, we needed a new offensive coordinator to figure that out? I'm a McVay guy, obviously. Thomas worked for McVay for many years over there in LA. And before that was a University of Georgia running back and before that played high school football against McVay's. So like McVay's been singing about this guy for a decade. So he goes and gets his job at Carolina, a big promotion, flames out horribly. Everyone gets fired. And he goes to Chicago and it's like, he finally gets a chance to be an offensive coordinator. And like, I, he was high energy. He was, let's go. And I'm wondering, I'm like, you know, Shane Waldron, also respected guy, like, and Matt Eberflus, those are not like high energy, like, those are not big vocal guys. Meanwhile, you look at the booth and

• 1:09:34Speaker 02

  Thomas Brown is like, super into it. He's pumping his fist. And I'm like, as stupid as that sounds, like, sometimes the young quarterback needs that, just a little bit of juice, like, let's go. So I, I'm curious to see how the rest of the season plays out, plays out for him.

• 1:09:49Bill Simmons?

  That's like what you did for me with million dollar picks that year when I was in a slump and you came in, you had just had a ton of energy.

• 1:09:55Speaker 02

  Mid-season addition, baby. Let's go.

• 1:09:58Bill Simmons?

  Well, Joe Brady seems like he's emerged as a possible head coaching dude. You have the Chargers defensive coordinator.

• 1:10:08Speaker 02

  Minter.

• 1:10:09Bill Simmons?

  He's in the mix for stuff. You have Belichick, you have Vrabel, you have Ben Johnson, who I think just wants to sit at the bar in a cocktail dress and have people buy him drinks. I'm not sure he actually.

• 1:10:19Speaker 02

  Not even.

• 1:10:20Bill Simmons?

  Everyone wants to be a head coaching job.

• 1:10:21Speaker 02

  Not even. Like, two years ago, he was a Carolina guy and Tepper was like, in on Ben Johnson. Like, he didn't even take the interview. He's like, I'm good. Last year. I have it on pretty good sources. He was Washington's guy.

• 1:10:33Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:33Speaker 02

  They get on, they get on a private jet to Detroit to go meet with him again. And they find out while they're on a private jet that he's withdrawn his name from the interview process and he's going to stay in Detroit. Like, I don't even know if he wants to be a head coach. And I don't think he was like, loves the idea that he's looked at as this guy who flirts. He doesn't even flirt. He's like, I'm good. So I would imagine this is the year, but he's, he could be, he could be picky here. I don't think he needs to take any job.

• 1:11:02Bill Simmons?

  This is the year, and I doubled down on it with my future picks before the year, but I was just like, I just, I'm defaulting to good coaching. You know, like Sean Payton over Jim Harbaugh. I know it doesn't make sense, but I just feel like he's getting to nine wins and maybe making the playoffs.

• 1:11:19Speaker 02

  I had him, I had him both in the playoffs this year. I'm with you.

• 1:11:22Bill Simmons?

  Next year already, I can just tell you like Belichick and Rabel taking over whoever. I'm just going to be like, I'm in on those guys.

• 1:11:28Speaker 02

  Why are you so convinced Belichick's getting a job?

• 1:11:32Bill Simmons?

  Well, that's a good question. I'm not. I'm convinced he wants a job.

• 1:11:35Speaker 02

  If he didn't get one this time around and, and Atlanta obviously went down the road with him. Why after a year will he suddenly be in demand?

• 1:11:44Bill Simmons?

  Great question. Because especially coming off of not a great Pats year. I think, I think Kraft was definitely poisoning the well a little bit. I think he had a reputation as a curmudgeon and as a control freak. And I think the two jobs that made the most sense were Atlanta and Washington. Atlanta hired Raheem, who's, you know, was a really, really, really good defensive coordinator who was going to get another job. Like, it wasn't like the heart of schmuck in Washington. Dan Quinn, like, it seems like that was the right hire.

• 1:12:12Speaker 02

  Right guy for them.

• 1:12:13Bill Simmons?

  Great energy, defense, like, it's worked out. I don't really know if there's another job, like, like Tepper wasn't going to hire him in Carolina.

• 1:12:20Speaker 02

  No, no.

• 1:12:21Bill Simmons?

  This year, Jacksonville and Vegas seem like the two spots that.

• 1:12:24Speaker 02

  Okay, so let's go down to Vegas.

• 1:12:26Bill Simmons?

  You're bringing this whole infrastructure. He's going to be in charge of everything and you're just handing the thing over to him. Those seem to be the two franchises that just need someone like that. So that'd be my guess.

• 1:12:36Speaker 02

  Let's go down the Vegas line. Brady, Brady hires, Brady's first big opportunity to, Brady's hiring his Belichick, his old head coach, and they're going to bring in Josh McDaniels and Mick Lombardi and the whole gang from, from, like, they did that a couple of years ago. Like, that was their coaching staff. They went the New England route, like.

• 1:12:53Bill Simmons?

  The only thing I would push back on is, are we sure Brady's going to be that involved?

• 1:12:59Speaker 02

  Good point. I don't know.

• 1:13:01Bill Simmons?

  I like, you could tell me either. You could tell me he's going to be super involved.

• 1:13:04Speaker 02

  I would imagine.

• 1:13:05Bill Simmons?

  He just got a deal on a 10% NFL team and he's just.

• 1:13:09Speaker 02

  So like, who does this benefit more? Brady or the Raiders to have Brady as a Raiders minority owner? I would think the Raiders would say, we would love his insights and have him weigh in on decision making when it comes to football stuff.

• 1:13:19Bill Simmons?

  Brady, because he got an unbelievable deal apparently in the team.

• 1:13:22Speaker 02

  He's a legitimate owner.

• 1:13:24Bill Simmons?

  Half price, like the NFL owners are pissed about it. Jacksonville needs, I mean, I think Vrabel, because he's younger than Belichick, should be a better candidate than Belichick. As much as I love Belichick, he's hitting his mid 70s.

• 1:13:36Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:13:37Bill Simmons?

  But I do think that's been a lot of this media stuff has been a rehab tour of, see, I do have a personality.

• 1:13:44Speaker 02

  So interesting you say that.

• 1:13:45Bill Simmons?

  Play the game.

• 1:13:45Speaker 02

  Surrounds himself with a Chris Long, who's a super likable guy on television, a Chad Johnson on television. And he's playing along with those guys. Then he's on with the Mannings and he's great.

• 1:13:55Bill Simmons?

  And it's, he's doing McAfee, like he's just, he's checking all the boxes.

• 1:13:59Speaker 02

  Totally. And look, if you're talking about who do you want to sit down with and talk ball with? Or who's going to be the best X's and O's guy in the history of the sport, it might be him. I know these owners, I, I'm trying to think, I think Shad Khan is your best bet of like, who's going to hand things over to Belichick? And whether or not he.

• 1:14:18Bill Simmons?

  Has a whole bunch of other stuff going and doesn't want to manage it day to day.

• 1:14:21Speaker 02

  You deal, right?

• 1:14:22Bill Simmons?

  I just, you take it, you go, which is, I think what he thought he was going to have with Trent Baalke, right? And that hasn't worked out.

• 1:14:31Speaker 02

  Yeah. And he thought he had that with Urban Meyer. And that didn't work out.

• 1:14:35Bill Simmons?

  I think Belichick's going to Jacksonville. And I think Vrabel will get a really good job. I can't imagine he's not going to be a head coach next year. That's crazy to me.

• 1:14:45Speaker 02

  So he's been, he's been talked about, obviously, a lot. And a lot of people thought he got a raw deal in Tennessee, which is fair. He's won a lot without a real true number one quarterback. Tannehill was solid for a couple of years.

• 1:14:57Speaker 02

  Think about Vrabel, he's in Cleveland right now consulting, but it's, that's almost like, hey, just let me stay with the team, let me help out where I can.

• 1:15:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, he's staying in the mix.

• 1:15:04Speaker 02

  But you can't, you can't pin any of Cleveland's season to, bad season to like, well, look, Vrabel had a bad year. Again, though, Vrabel, like, former Patriot, all that, like, is Vrabel the Jets guy? I, I don't know if there's a, if that's a great fit in New York. I don't know if he wants to go there. I'm, I'm just trying to do mixing, matching about what's going to be available. And I look at some of the places that are going to have openings. I think Bears might be available. I think Cowboys is going to be available. I think Jets is going to be available.

• 1:15:32Bill Simmons?

  Would you want the Cowboys job?

• 1:15:33Speaker 02

  It's tough. It's tough. Cause he's going to be involved.

• 1:15:36Bill Simmons?

  He has three giant contracts. It's basically like you're taking over the 76ers.

• 1:15:40Speaker 02

  And the owner historically has been very involved. They haven't had a real voice of like pushback or resistance since Harcells. I, I mean, I don't think Wade Phillips was that guy. It wasn't Garrett and it wasn't McCarthy. Those guys have been great football coaches in their own right and when, and when they had to be, but like, they're not guys who are going to scream at the owner.

• 1:15:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Well, last year, last year, the Chargers was the best job.

• 1:16:03Speaker 02

  Hundred percent.

• 1:16:03Bill Simmons?

  You get, you get Herbert, you have a team that underachieved because of the coaching situation. You have actual talent in place. It was all lined up for somebody to come in. Jacksonville to me is a pretty good job.

• 1:16:15Speaker 02

  You still believe in Trevor Lawrence?

• 1:16:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. If you, if you're walking into it going, I think Lawrence can be a guy. I think he could be on the, somewhere in the Herbert, May vicinity. He's just, they did this wrong, this wrong, and this wrong. We can build him back up. And you're probably watching every pass and play that he's done over the last four years, trying to decide if this was his fault or if this was the infrastructure. But at least, like, you go to the Giants, who am I getting? Tommy DeVito? Like, you go to Vegas, you have no chance of anyone.

• 1:16:48Speaker 02

  Both of those guys, draft picks. That's what you're getting.

• 1:16:50Bill Simmons?

  Or Chicago would be the other one where you get, you're walking in with Caleb, um, you have draft capital.

• 1:16:56Speaker 02

  And that's kind of what.

• 1:16:57Bill Simmons?

  You have a city that gives a shit.

• 1:16:58Speaker 02

  That's kind of what Canal has stepped into in Carolina. If you get like a Caleb that just had a scarring rookie season, now how do I build him back up? You know, like Bryce Young was destroyed last year. How do I build him back up? That's a challenge in itself.

• 1:17:11Bill Simmons?

  Work in progress.

• 1:17:12Speaker 02

  Work in progress. I would, I would quickly give you a name and obviously I say this and a lot of people roll their eyes because he's been, he was a head coach before, but like.

• 1:17:21Bill Simmons?

  Depending on how the second half of the season goes in Washington, I think Kingsbury is going to be a name to watch because of what he did with Jaden out of the gates and he's got head coaching experience. It's not for everybody. It's and he has faded in the second half of every place he's ever coached, whether it was Texas Tech or Arizona, or even, you know, USC last year. But I would keep an eye on Kingsbury as a sneaky candidate for a few of these places just because of his ability with these young quarterbacks and that's what you're drafting. And I do think, you know, he was bad in Arizona. I don't know how much of it was his fault, but it didn't go well.

• 1:17:55Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:17:56Bill Simmons?

  Um, with that said, he's been amazing for Daniels and if you feel like it's a quarterback match, maybe. The thing is you have a 25% chance of of hitting it with the coach. We were just watching it. There's eight or nine guys and then there's everybody else.

• 1:18:13Speaker 02

  Totally.

• 1:18:13Bill Simmons?

  That's what happens. Like, would you want the New Orleans job? The shocking thing to me is how many jobs I wouldn't want that are available. It's like, oh, cool. I get to take over the Panthers. If that became available, no, thank you. Oh, the Saints. I get the Saints job.

• 1:18:29Speaker 02

  You're underestimating the egos, the careers, and what it means to be one of the 32. And a lot of these guys know going in sometimes.

• 1:18:38Bill Simmons?

  I get it, but not not if you're Ben Johnson, though, and you every year you have your pick. Like, it's like, oh, cool, I get to coach Derek Carr. Oh, I get Aiden O'Connell for a whole year. Oh.

• 1:18:48Speaker 02

  Yeah. Sean Payton tells the story about like, he, he got interviewed by the Raiders in 03, maybe, and he was the offensive coordinator of the Cowboys and Al Davis made the pitch and then, uh, you know, the Cowboys came back and said, we'll pay you as much as they're paying you to stay as offensive coordinator. And he does. And then the next year, he visited New Orleans and he was like, there were still tarps on the homes from Katrina. And like, we were embarrassed to invite free agents in because if they even saw this place, they would never choose to sign. He's like, we had to offer twice as much money to assistant coaches just to even consider this place. He's like, it's not like that. But when you go into these teams that are so much behind the

• 1:19:30Speaker 02

  Like it is a real, real hard sell to like a top, top coach, which is one of the reasons why you don't get some of the premier coordinators or the hot names going to these franchises. Everyone's like, all the fans are like, well, let's just hire that guy. No, no, no. A lot of times it's the coordinator has the choice or the hot name has the choice. And it's like, I'm not gonna go step into that. I want to go to the place that's the most desirable.

• 1:19:53Bill Simmons?

  Well, it's funny the way we laid that out. Maybe Vegas is a more desirable job because you come in, you're like, hey Vegas, no state tax. It's hopping city right now. Doing great. We have the

• 1:20:06Speaker 02

  NBA is coming.

• 1:20:07Bill Simmons?

  We got a baseball team coming, NBA is coming, like shit's going down.

• 1:20:10Speaker 02

  NBA cup and they do

• 1:20:11Bill Simmons?

  Home of the UFC, NBA cup, like shit's happening.

• 1:20:15Speaker 02

  Are you gonna go to the, are you gonna go to the NBA cup again this year or no?

• 1:20:19Bill Simmons?

  I'm on the fence. The semifinal game, there's the two in a row games on a Saturday. It seems kind of fun.

• 1:20:25Speaker 02

  It does. I will be at, I'm doing a double dip this weekend. I'll be in LA. I'm gonna go to Nuggets Lakers on Saturday.

• 1:20:33Bill Simmons?

  Hope you're okay.

• 1:20:35Speaker 02

  And then I'm gonna, I know, I'd like to see him. Then I'm gonna go to Eagles Rams the next night. And then I was thinking about extending the trip one more day because you have Ravens Chargers. So pretty good LA sports weekend here.

• 1:20:46Bill Simmons?

  That really is. Well, well, let's leave on that because we're hitting that a million dollar picks. Ravens Chargers, Chargers sneak one out last week. Like it was a sneaker.

• 1:20:58Speaker 02

  Slade some ghosts.

• 1:21:00Bill Simmons?

  Ravens could be seven and five if they lose this game. The Ravens are favored by three.

• 1:21:07Bill Simmons?

  And I've liked the Chargers all year.

• 1:21:11Bill Simmons?

  But something about the Ravens on turf coming off a loss is scary to me. What's your take on this game?

• 1:21:17Speaker 02

  I don't know, man. Chargers are really good. And last week it was obviously all written, just charger it up. And they found a way to somehow put their foot down and not let that happen again. Now, of course, The kicker from the Bengals misses that kick and it's okay, but it was all going the way it always goes for the Chargers after being up 27 to six and they found a way to hold on and Herbert had to leave a drive at the end.

• 1:21:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:21:42Speaker 02

  And he did.

• 1:21:43Bill Simmons?

  That was good.

• 1:21:44Speaker 02

  And at the end, it's like, Lad McConkey has no demons and no ghosts from, you know, previous years and J.K. Dobbins doesn't know any of that stuff and they've got guys on defense who weren't a part of those teams. Like, new coach, new feel, like, I could see them beating up on the Ravens this weekend. The Ravens, Ravens last week, they finally get a good effort from their defense. They finally get this performance where they keep a team under 20. And on the flip side, they only run the ball with Derrick Henry 13 times. They missed two Justin Tucker field goals. They looked discombobulated after the timeout on the two-point conversion. There's penalties all over the place. Like, I don't feel great about this Ravens team. I didn't feel great when they won against the Bengals on a Thursday night and they gave up 35 points and 500 yards passing. Like, I don't know.

• 1:22:25Speaker 02

  I, I, I know the Ravens are favored and this game's on the road for some reason. I, I could see the Chargers winning in this game. 100%.

• 1:22:32Bill Simmons?

  It's a must-watcher. That one's great. Packers, Packers-Niners is gonna be great. Some good ones. Rams-Eagles will be fun. We, we have a couple of good ones. I think Dolphins-Pats could be really fun, too.

• 1:22:44Speaker 02

  I heard you and Sal joking about, you know, did you know that the Buffalo fans jump through tables? Where do you stand on the Harbaugh brothers going up against each other in a game? Are you good on that storyline or is it not enough?

• 1:22:54Bill Simmons?

  Is that what's happening?

• 1:22:55Speaker 02

  Yeah, they actually, so one of the team's head coaches-

• 1:22:57Bill Simmons?

  They're going against each other?

• 1:22:58Speaker 02

  It's actually-

• 1:22:59Bill Simmons?

  I didn't see that. Nobody's talked about that all week.

• 1:23:02Speaker 02

  It's actually kinda interesting because one of them is last name Harbaugh and the other one's last name is Harbaugh and their dad actually coached too for Western Kentucky for many, many years.

• 1:23:09Bill Simmons?

  Same dad.

• 1:23:10Speaker 02

  Same guy!

• 1:23:12Bill Simmons?

  How many times did they coach against each other when Harbaugh was a Niner?

• 1:23:15Speaker 02

  Twice. They did a Thanksgiving game and then they did the Super Bowl.

• 1:23:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I don't, oh yeah, the Super Bowl.

• 1:23:20Speaker 02

  And John won both times.

• 1:23:22Bill Simmons?

  I still don't understand how the Niners lost that Super Bowl. I went to that game. One of the weirder sporting events I've ever, I'm sure you were there, too.

• 1:23:29Speaker 02

  Back after the-

• 1:23:30Bill Simmons?

  Long blackout. The whole thing was just had the weirdest laugh.

• 1:23:33Speaker 02

  Maybe I'm just a neurotic New Yorker here, but the lights go out and everyone thinks this is hilarious. I was freaking out. I'm like, what's going on? Like, where were you when it went down? I was in the press box, which is not easy to get down from the top of the Superdome.

• 1:23:45Bill Simmons?

  I was in a suite with the one and only Nathan Hubbard.

• 1:23:48Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 1:23:48Bill Simmons?

  And, uh, and the lights went out and- The first thought is like, is something horrible happening? Then the second thought is, what if the lights don't come back on? What happens to the Super Bowl?

• 1:24:00Speaker 02

  What we do?

• 1:24:00Bill Simmons?

  And then it was super disjointed, but the whole game was disjointed. And then all of a sudden they're on the five yard line, first down. And it just, the pace was off and it was really weird to watch in person.

• 1:24:10Speaker 02

  I, it was.

• 1:24:11Bill Simmons?

  I haven't been to like a million NFL games because I love watching them on TV. But that was, I think the weirdest one I've been to in person.

• 1:24:18Speaker 02

  Frank Gore runs the ball down to the five yard line. Kaepernick throws, I think it's the repasses to Michael Crabtree. One of them, maybe to Randy Moss of all people who was on that team. Out of the end zone and that's how it ends. It's a crazy, crazy Super Bowl that's forgotten in the lore because of the blackout. But it was, it came down to the final minutes and like, that's another one that Niners fans add to like, there's a whole version of the beleaguered Jets Browns fan. And no one's crying for Niners fans. They've got all those Super Bowl rings, but like, they have had some devastating playoff losses over the last two decades.

• 1:24:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you're right. You don't think of them as the tortured fan base because they've been in it every year. But what was the last one? Ninety, 95?

• 1:24:59Speaker 02

  Yeah, well.

• 1:25:00Bill Simmons?

  Steve Young?

• 1:25:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, it was Steve Young and the monkey off his back with Gary Plummer. Yeah, that was the last time they won a Super Bowl, right? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, Montana won four and Steve Young won one.

• 1:25:12Bill Simmons?

  Drought on par of the New York playoff football drought.

• 1:25:15Speaker 02

  13 years for the Jets.

• 1:25:17Bill Simmons?

  And then when was the last Giants playoff win? Was it Super Bowl?

• 1:25:20Speaker 02

  No, a couple of years ago, they beat the Vikings, they beat Kirk Cousins.

• 1:25:23Bill Simmons?

  That's right, the Daniel Jones game, I bet on that game.

• 1:25:25Speaker 02

  You didn't talk, you wouldn't talk about the Giants decision all year.

• 1:25:28Bill Simmons?

  There's nothing to talk about.

• 1:25:28Speaker 02

  All year, Drew Lock's number two, DeVito gets the call as the number one.

• 1:25:33Bill Simmons?

  They're just trying to save money, right? It's just per game.

• 1:25:35Speaker 02

  No, DeVito brings a spark, baby. Let's go.

• 1:25:38Bill Simmons?

  Spark for what? They should want to lose every game. If I were them, I would play Daniel Jones every game.

• 1:25:44Speaker 02

  There's like

• 1:25:45Bill Simmons?

  I wanted, I want, the weird thing is the draft's goofy because the top two guys it seems like are cornerbacks, right? If you say Travis Hunter is a cornerback.

• 1:25:53Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:25:53Bill Simmons?

  Who can play receiver sometimes. And then there's not a quarterback in the top eight.

• 1:25:57Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 1:25:58Bill Simmons?

  The two left tackles have fallen out.

• 1:26:00Speaker 02

  Just get ready for the Shador Sanders hype train, my friend. It's coming. It's coming. It'll be real. It'll be real.

• 1:26:06Bill Simmons?

  That's where I'll be getting off that train.

• 1:26:08Speaker 02

  You don't, you're not a fan?

• 1:26:09Bill Simmons?

  No, I like him. It's just, we do this every year with the draft where we're settling with like, these are definitely the five, six, seven best guys. And then as we get closer to April, everybody starts talking them into these quarterbacks. Yeah. It starts rising up. All right. Uh, say hi to everybody in New York. Great to see you.

• 1:26:25Speaker 02

  I wanted, I wanted to talk, I want to talk about, uh, Jay Leno being thrown down a hill, but we didn't get to that point. And that's just not, not funny, I guess, huh?

• 1:26:35Bill Simmons?

  Listen, I will say, if I was the host of a conspiracy podcast, I would have done a lot of legwork on it because it just, a lot of stuff doesn't add up. I'll just say that. I've, I've, I've been on some text threads today, wondering what, what's going on here.

• 1:26:48Speaker 02

  It's a crazy online story and it's, it's disheartening because I like Leno. I mean, I, I think he's a sweet guy and he loves to craft, but what are you doing? What are we, what are we doing? Hampton Inn on a, on a Tuesday night in Pittsburgh? What are we doing here?

• 1:27:00Bill Simmons?

  Right. Well, and also if you, if you take it, you take like your own parents and just put them in the situation of some of these and it's like, do you know what happened to Bill's dad? He fell 60 feet down a hill and his whole side of his face is black. Like what? That's the weirdest thing I've ever heard.

• 1:27:15Speaker 02

  And there's something so old school.

• 1:27:16Bill Simmons?

  They seem, somehow seems less weird.

• 1:27:18Speaker 02

  And it's something so old school that like Inside Edition is doing like, it's like interviewing them. It's like, where, what, what am I watching?

• 1:27:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, there's people doing tweets like, you know, like someone is trying to kill Jay Leno. How much evidence do we need? And it's like, eh, at least investing in this. I'll kick the tires on it. Uh, Peter Schrager, great to see you.

• 1:27:37Speaker 02

  You're the man, dude. Thank you.

• 1:27:41Bill Simmons?

  All right, that's it for part one of the podcast. Thanks to Peter Schrager, thanks to Sarudy for hopping on, and thanks to Kyle Crichton. Remember, you can watch all the clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel, and remember, part two of this podcast is coming as soon as we can get it up. We're gonna talk about the Philadelphia 76ers, we're gonna talk about million dollar picks, and a whole bunch of other stuff, so stay tuned for that. See you in part two.

• 1:28:28Bill Simmons?

  Must be 21 plus and present in select states. For Kansas, an affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus and present in DC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-897777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here, visit gamblinghelplineMA.org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts, or call 1-8778-HOPE-NY, or text HOPE-NY in New York. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, I like those guys, star in the Sharp Where to Comedy thriller

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