Sequoia's Leadership Shakeup, Anthropic's Road to Profitability, 𝕏 Timeline Reactions

(00:33) - Sequoia's Leadership Shakeup (04:14) - Anthropic's Road to Profitability (09:30) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (22:46) - Palantir's Q3 Earnings and Their Big Bet on High Schoolers (28:57) - The State of the AI Race Between the U. S. and China (39:34) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions TBPN.com is made possible by:Ramp - https://ramp.com Figma - https://figma.com Vanta - https://vanta.com Linear - https://linear.app Eight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpn Wander - https://wander.com/tbpn Public - https://public.com AdQuick - https://adquick.com Bezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.com Polymarket - https://polymarket.com Attio - https://attio.com/tbpn Fin - https://fin.ai/tbpn Graphite - https://graphite.dev Restream - https://restream.io Profound - https://tryprofound.com Julius AI - https://julius.ai turbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.com fal - https://fal.ai Privy - https://www.privy.io Cognition - https://cognition.ai Gemini - https://gemini.google.com Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Jordi Hays?

  You're watching TVPN.

• 0:01John Coogan?

  Today is Tuesday, November 4th, 2025. We are live from Silicon Valley.

• 0:06Jordi Hays?

  That's right.

• 0:06John Coogan?

  Uh, we're not gonna say exactly where we are, but we're in Silicon Valley and we're hanging out with some absolute dogs today.

• 0:13Jordi Hays?

  Technology brothers and sisters.

• 0:14John Coogan?

  So we took the show on the road. Thank you to producer Ben for helping us get set up and thank you for Ramp for making this possible. Time is money. Save both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more, all in one place.

• 0:26Jordi Hays?

  So glad we have Ben here to be our live studio audience.

• 0:30John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, you gotta clap for everything. This is required. Uh, we have some breaking news out of Sequoia Capital, just down the street from where we are. Um, they have a new set of bosses, new top dogs.

• 0:42Jordi Hays?

  Top dog alert.

• 0:43John Coogan?

  Top dog alert. Uh, they're going Lynn sanity mode and the gradinator.

• 0:48Jordi Hays?

  The gradinator.

• 0:49John Coogan?

  Pat Grady and, and Alfred Lynn are in. We haven't had Pat on the show. We've had Alfred Lynn. He's fantastic.

• 0:55Jordi Hays?

  I can read through, uh, Roloff's message. He said, uh, they, they love to structure these as emails. So, "Subject: A new gener- generation of Sequoia stewards. Don Valentine founded Sequoia with a future in mind. He instilled a distinct culture focused on stewardship. We think of stewardship as leaving the firm better than when we found it. This belief has enabled successful intergenerational transfers and ensures we hire the right people who want to create a partnership that outlives all of us. Stewardship grounds our culture in an ethos of performance, excellence, teamwork, and continuous innovation. It also extends to our companies. Even though we're called an investment firm, we think of ourselves as company builders. Since 1972, Sequoia stewards have transitioned the partnership from one

• 1:37Jordi Hays?

  generation to the next when they saw that the team was ready for the challenge. With each transition, a new generation is able to stand on the shoulders of those who came before them and build on and strengthen the Sequoia partnership. That moment has come for me. Today, I am announcing that Alfred Lynn and Pat Grady are Sequoia's new stewards. Alfred and Pat embody the cultural traits that have defined Sequoia for the last 53 years." They have exceptional performance, having partnered with companies like DoorDash, ServiceNow, Airbnb, Snowflake, Citadel Security, Zoom, Kalshi, OpenAI, OpenEvidence, and Harvey. They are leaders. Alfred has co-led Sequoia's early-stage business since 2017, and Pat our growth-stage business since 2015. They embrace our apprenticeship model.

• 2:19Jordi Hays?

  They have a fearlessness and resilience that's necessary to win in this business. They do not shy away from difficult conversations, and they roll up their sleeves to company build. Let's give it up for rolling up sleeves.

• 2:31John Coogan?

  Let's roll up our sleeves.

• 2:35Jordi Hays?

  Both with founders and within Sequoia, the two of them are true teammates. To founders, to their partners, and to each other, they're the right pair to entrust with the stewardship of Sequoia. Like the stewards before me, I will transition into a new role advising the partnership while continuing to represent Sequoia on boards. I'm confident that Sequoia's ethos will endure, and the deep bench of talent at Sequoia will thrive under Pat and Alfred's leadership. Best regards, Roloff Botha.

• 3:01John Coogan?

  Are you reading between the lines here? I think I know what happened. I think Roloff probably just recently got into racing cars, and he's just like, "I need to go full-time."

• 3:11Jordi Hays?

  I need to go all in on this.

• 3:12John Coogan?

  I gotta, I gotta.

• 3:13Jordi Hays?

  I've found my real calling.

• 3:14John Coogan?

  I've found my real calling.

• 3:16Jordi Hays?

  It's time.

• 3:16John Coogan?

  I'm going to spend more time.

• 3:18Jordi Hays?

  I can't wait another day.

• 3:20John Coogan?

  I can't spend, yeah. Spending time managing Sequoia as a steward is just, it's not, it's not reducing my lap times.

• 3:27Jordi Hays?

  I put this post in from Alex, because this was my first thought, too. Alex says, "Bro went out and said venture capital is return-free risk," and then handed over the keys. The timing is interesting that...

• 3:41John Coogan?

  I don't know if you read too much in that.

• 3:42Jordi Hays?

  I don't think you need to read too much into it.

• 3:44John Coogan?

  Where did he say that? He said that on the Delphi podcast, is that right?

• 3:46Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I think so.

• 3:47John Coogan?

  That's such a funny place to go drop a bombshell and then bounce. I don't think you can read too much into it, because it's, but he doesn't do a lot of media, so I don't know. Maybe he was like, "I'm out. I'm out of venture."

• 4:02Jordi Hays?

  It's been a good run. Venture capital.

• 4:04John Coogan?

  We'll have to keep, keep tracking it, but anyway.

• 4:08John Coogan?

  Thank you to Restream for making this stream possible. One livestream, 30-plus destinations, multi-stream, reach your audience wherever they are. Anthropic is the new king of AI API sales, boatload of new financials and projections below from the information. Anthropic this summer hiked its most optimistic growth forecast by roughly 13 to 28% over the next three years and is projecting as much as 70 billion in revenue in 2028. Okay, so that's up from close to 5 billion this year. So 5 billion, then 10, then 20, then 30, like they're more than doubling every year for the next three years. Pretty remarkable. Are you walking over here to hit the gong somehow? What are you doing?

• 4:50Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 4:51John Coogan?

  Oh, is I off mic?

• 4:52Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 4:52John Coogan?

  Okay, thank you.

• 4:56Jordi Hays?

  We're back.

• 4:56John Coogan?

  We're back. The company expects demand from businesses for its AI models to drive that growth. Anthropic projected that its 2025 revenue from selling access to these models through an application programming interface will roughly double the revenue its bigger rival OpenAI generates. And Peter Woidofsky.

• 5:16Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the notable thing here is they're projecting cash flow.

• 5:19John Coogan?

  Yeah, profitable in 2027.

• 5:21Jordi Hays?

  17 billion in cash flow in 2028, not something you see from AI players outside of Nvidia.

• 5:30John Coogan?

  I don't know, from the way Anthropic talks about pre-training and scaling and new models, I would be, remember the whole Dario idea of like,

• 5:41Jordi Hays?

  Well, no, this,

• 5:41John Coogan?

  each, each model individually is cash flow positive, but you keep having to scale up by 10x. And so we're going to do a $10 billion training run, and then we're going to amortize that over five years, and it's going to look great. But in the short term, it's going to look terrible, and it keeps looking terrible because you keep scaling up. This is the exact opposite of that. I wonder if there's like a true shift going on.

• 6:03Jordi Hays?

  To actually be cash flow positive at the company level, I have to imagine they would have to not do the next training.

• 6:08John Coogan?

  Well, not do something that's 10x or 100x. I don't know. I understand that like compute will continue to scale with with revenue. So they can still be like extremely compute scaling pilled. But in terms of viewing the incremental progress on their models as essentially capex that puts them deep in a hole, it feels like there's some shift in the way that they're thinking about this, or at least messaging it to the market. I don't know. Maybe this is in reaction to that last quote that came out about each model being so, so unprofitable in the short term.

• 6:46John Coogan?

  Let me tell you about Privy, wallet infrastructure for every bank. Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rails, securely spin up white label wallets, sign transactions, integrate on-chain infrastructure, all through one simple API. So Peter Williford said, OpenAI's plan, spend 115 billion to then become profitable in 2030. Anthropic's plan is spend 6 billion to then become profitable in 2027. We'll be curious to see what works best. People are, the bub talk is going through the roof. It's going back and forth. Mass, memetic theory, the swing builder himself, the man who built the swing. He was saying that Rune has become extremely defensive lately, taking shots at former TBN guest Rune.

• 7:30John Coogan?

  And Jacob Rintamaki, another guest, says, to be fair to Rune, people have also been saying a lot of crazy stuff about Sam Altman and AI capex Twitter discourse in general just makes me want to take a shotgun to the brain. So deeply mid curve. And Mass is going back and forth, showing that OpenAI has to 1,000x their revenue over five years to get to a standard 15x PE ratio, which is certainly not the goal for most companies. And I think Jacob makes a good point here. He says, Palantir's price earnings ratio is 666.

• 8:06Jordi Hays?

  Meta's at something like a 22, 27 today.

• 8:10John Coogan?

  27, like to get to 15 is like, yes, that might happen as a 40-year-old company, but certainly not as a company that's tripling revenue every year.

• 8:18Jordi Hays?

  Also, enterprise large language model API market share, this graph.

• 8:25Jordi Hays?

  This the this like study that was done is from Menlo Ventures, who's a big investor in Anthropic. It was like a relatively, it was, I think, a relatively small sample size.

• 8:35John Coogan?

  I mean, I think it could be correct about the about the market share.

• 8:37Jordi Hays?

  I think it's probably directionally correct.

• 8:38John Coogan?

  If the market's growing super fast, it's much less of an issue. And very clearly, like, the stated mission of OpenAI has never been like, we're a pure-play enterprise large language model API company.

• 8:52Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 8:52John Coogan?

  It's been like, give us credit in our price to earnings relative to our advances on science and our consumer app and our agent at commerce and our AI slop.

• 9:02Jordi Hays?

  The the other notable thing from that specific report was that OpenAI's share of closed-source foundation models via API dropped from 50 to 34% 50% to 34% across 2024.

• 9:16John Coogan?

  Sure, yeah. And then went down even further to 25%. That's what it looks like, but, I mean, if the market's growing, like, how much does this really matter? It's, but, yeah, they're they're going back and forth. They're they're duking it out, but Jacob Rindamaki shares something funny, just a reflection on Nvidia that I wanted to share. It was the WoJack meme of in 2019, people saying Nvidia's stock is extremely overvalued. This was pre the Ethereum pump, I believe, and Nvidia's market cap was $100 billion. And it did seem like, oh, they just like make, they just make chips, like, it's just like, they have one product, kind of. Oh, yeah, they make great gaming graphics cards. It was at 100 billion, then at 500 billion in 2021.

• 10:01John Coogan?

  Now, now Nvidia did trade down crazy after the crypto proof of stake move. But then in 2023, Nvidia hit 1 trillion, and everyone was saying, this has got to be the top. And then in 2025, we now see that the market cap is 5 trillion and the WoJack is extremely dismayed.

• 10:21Jordi Hays?

  And pulling up this post from Trevor Scott, when Nvidia.

• 10:26John Coogan?

  This was a crazy photo.

• 10:28Jordi Hays?

  This this was pretty surreal to see this image surface. I'm surprised Jensen did this and allowed himself to be photographed doing it. But this was June 4, 2024. He was signing a woman's shirt at a conference and Nvidia is up.

• 10:47Jordi Hays?

  Eighty-five percent. And obviously, a lot of folks were calling the top on this.

• 10:52John Coogan?

  Always manufacture fake top signals.

• 10:55Jordi Hays?

  Historically, historically, these have been top signals. But here we are.

• 11:01John Coogan?

  But I mean, to steel man this, like Jensen has always been a rock star. Like, he's always like fashioned himself like a rock star. It's not like he put on the jacket as at the top. He's just always been wearing it. He was born in it. And so I think he's just a man who manufactures a new top signal every quarter, and that makes him.

• 11:18Jordi Hays?

  The arm length, beer chugging.

• 11:20John Coogan?

  Yeah, we're gonna look back on that in a year and be like, how was that at the top?

• 11:24Jordi Hays?

  And you know that Korean fried chicken stocks were pumping?

• 11:28John Coogan?

  Wait, really? Because of what he said?

• 11:29Jordi Hays?

  Well, yeah, I think he was eating. There's a, I don't, I don't, on Wall Street Bets three days ago. This could be a copy, copy pasta, but there's a, there's a post with eighteen thousand upvotes that says, "I am financially ruined, short selling Korean fried chicken companies. I have lost everything, and I'm not sure how to continue. This week, I lost four hundred and seventy-two thousand dollars, short selling Korean fried chicken companies. My idea was with the declining Korean population and the recent trend towards healthier eating and vegan diets, there is an opportunity here. I did some research into consumer trends in Korea and determined that this would be a lucrative play. So I shorted Korean fried chicken companies across the board.

• 12:10Jordi Hays?

  Unfortunately, earlier this week, Nvidia CEO Jensen dined out at a Korean chicken restaurant called Kabu Chicken in Seoul, and pictures went viral of him enjoying fried chicken and beer. Stocks of chicken companies in Korea soared twenty to thirty percent, and I was margin called. Everything is gone."

• 12:27John Coogan?

  It's great.

• 12:28Jordi Hays?

  "I don't know how to continue. How could I not have known that Korean fried chicken is the future of AI?"

• 12:33John Coogan?

  That's layers. That does seem like a copy pasta, but the internet is such a wide, such a big place that it is possible that there's one person that did that, that actually YOLO'd their full, full send.

• 12:44Jordi Hays?

  There's been crazier bets made on Wall Street Bets.

• 12:47John Coogan?

  I mean, we know some retail traders who full port into crazy thesis, like a crazy thesis every week. So I wouldn't be surprised if someone out there did go giga short. The Korean fried chicken stocks. It's totally possible.

• 13:03Jordi Hays?

  Well, yeah, if you were shorting a variety of restaurant stocks in the US, this this year, you did incredibly well.

• 13:10John Coogan?

  They all did poorly. Is that a Zempec trade?

• 13:12Jordi Hays?

  Uh, I don't even know. I don't even know that. There was just a lot of these restaurants that started trading at like fifty to a hundred times earnings. Um, we'll get to it later in the show, or I'll try to, I'll try to put it.

• 13:22John Coogan?

  Well, before we move on, let me tell you about cognition, the makers of Devon. Devon is the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team.

• 13:33John Coogan?

  There's some debate over how impactful the chat GPT launch has been on job displacement. We keep going back and forth on this. I mean, I was working on a slide deck yesterday with Tyler and I was, and we were mapping it out. And I drew it out on, I drew out the slide on the whiteboard and I was like, okay, now I need to get this, this, the picture of the whiteboard into Google Slides and have it like animate or get it into Figma and have it animate so I can actually use slides. And, and I just like, it was still a disconnect and we still wound up doing a bunch of it manually. And there wasn't just like, take a picture of something you scribbled and turn it into a presentation like.

• 14:16John Coogan?

  It's just, we're, we're not in that, like the era of agents, you, you said this on the show yesterday, you were like, you were like Codex or, uh, Microsoft Copilot doesn't get enough credit for bringing us into the era of agents. But Copilot is not actually an agent. It's, it's like, it's a copilot, which is different. An agent I see as a pilot.

• 14:36Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 14:36John Coogan?

  Copilot is like sitting alongside you doing spell check. I would see like Grammarly as a full, Grammarly, the original Grammarly was like a copilot. And then, and then, uh, deep research is an agent. And so I see.

• 14:48Jordi Hays?

  They have some agent specific functionality.

• 14:50John Coogan?

  I see Devon as an agent. I see Codex as an agent, but, uh, but I, I think there's still a, there is still a big problem to solve of like, what is the agent in every category? How can someone actually make it to be reliable?

• 15:06Jordi Hays?

  So I guess my point was like, Copilot is meant to be a way to orchestrate agents.

• 15:12John Coogan?

  They certainly want it to get there, but it that's not how people use it just yet. Like, for the most part, it is like.

• 15:20Jordi Hays?

  Well, I think the notable, I think, I think something notable about like, when I think of the chat GPT, like, jobs, displacement, debate and discourse. Like, I look at our company, which is like, despite a bunch of new tools popping up, we still need to hire video editors, we still want to hire writers. There's like a bunch of these different roles that AI is great at. Like, AI is, I mean, AI isn't necessarily like great at writing, but it can produce a lot of writing, right? AI is great at writing code, or at least it's great at, at, uh, increasing, um, productivity and velocity. That just meant that we hired a software engineer, right?

• 16:01John Coogan?

  We should, we, we should have a bigger debate about this. I feel like me and you can debate this a little bit, but we, we should have some, we should have some folks on the show to go back and forth on this chart because it is, first, I mean, we need to figure out how accurate is the, how, how accurate the actual chart is. Because it doesn't include a Y axis and, uh, and it's one of those things where, where we've seen these viral, we, these viral charts where when you go and recreate them, they kind of like, you know, don't quite, uh, line up.

• 16:32Jordi Hays?

  This, this chart, to me, has always been about interest rates going through the roof. That, that, that's what, it, it just happened to almost perfectly coincide with the chat GPT launch.

• 16:42John Coogan?

  Change in the high interest.

• 16:43Jordi Hays?

  And then if you look at the growth of the S and P 500, like, almost all the growth is driven by AI. So it's like, the narrative here is just.

• 16:51John Coogan?

  It's just weird because high interest rates, higher interest rates should, should hurt the S and P 500, right? Like, that's what happens when interest rates go up, like, you flood to bonds, the equities sell off, like, and that did happen a little bit in 2021 at the end of the top. But then we got the AI boom and we wound up building much bigger. And so Bubble Baby or something says, Bubble Boy, who we've talked about before, says, if only there were some major event a year before that was important and affected interest rates and hiring trends. And so is this the Silicon Valley crisis and then the Silicon Valley Bank crisis and then the interest rate hike that I think Bubble Boy is referring to?

• 17:36John Coogan?

  And Young Macro is replying and says, but shouldn't restrictive policy also have impacted growth? Proxy by the black line? Yes. And that's what I think we were getting at. Not saying the chart is great, but I don't get the consensus pushback, which is that policy was being tightened around the divergent point. So yeah, I would love to dig into more of this because there's just so many different things that are going on. There's like the cultural trends around what Elon did at X that just kind of like woke a lot of CEOs up to this idea that they could run leaner. The interest rates is huge. The different like geopolitical dynamics of like, do you want to offshore or not? There's like so

• 18:19John Coogan?

  many different, different aspects. And then even just, even just if AI isn't displacing, but if CEOs think that AI is going to displace people, or AI will be in five years. Well, a lot of the reason why you hire someone isn't because you need the job done today. It's because like-

• 18:38Jordi Hays?

  You need time for them to ramp.

• 18:39John Coogan?

  Exactly. Like the reason that a law firm hires a junior associate is because they need a new partner.

• 18:45Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 18:46John Coogan?

  And the partner will, they'll grow up into a partner in 20 years.

• 18:48Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. And I've said this probably 20 times by now, but I think that every CEO, even if they're not, if they don't have an AI narrative, wants an AI narrative. So if you have to do layoffs, why not say, hey, we're getting a bunch of efficiency out of AI tools and that's why we're doing layoffs. So that's why we're not opening up a bunch of new roles.

• 19:08John Coogan?

  Yeah. So it could be like the cost of capital went up, you have to pull back on a bunch of investments because you can't get cheap debt anymore. You're tightening your belt and then you wrap it in the AI narrative.

• 19:17Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 19:17John Coogan?

  Yeah, that is possible. I'm not exactly sure.

• 19:20Jordi Hays?

  Well, if you're worried about AI job displacement, why not invest in a SPV?

• 19:27Jordi Hays?

  That has fees with 0% carry and a 7% one-time management fee, just 7% tax immediately. This is not even the craziest that we've heard about. There's some out there floating around that are just 10% immediately.

• 19:42John Coogan?

  10% off the top.

• 19:44Jordi Hays?

  Right off the top.

• 19:45John Coogan?

  The 0% carry is great for the principal agent problem. Like for sure solves that.

• 19:50Jordi Hays?

  They're not incentivized just to raise as much money as humanly possible.

• 19:55John Coogan?

  I mean, it feels like, you know, I've heard a lot of early managers like flip this around where they only get carry and they give on the management fee.

• 20:03Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 20:04John Coogan?

  And they're basically working.

• 20:05Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, where they're charging like just an admin fee to cover the cost.

• 20:09John Coogan?

  Yeah, barely anything. And you'll see people with like small funds that seem, you know, somewhat sizable, but the actual management fee, once they've given so many fees, because they don't just come out with a 3% or 4% fee structure. They might have 2%, and then they're giving it away in a bunch of places to get early LPs on board. And so there's plenty of early-stage managers that are making like 100K or 200K. Like, they're just not taking that much home, but they're heavily incentivized on the carry side that if it works, they will, they will wind up doing very well. And so they're betting on themselves. This is kind of the opposite of that.

• 20:44Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 20:44John Coogan?

  Anyway, let me tell you about figma.com. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together and get started for free. Michael Burry has just filed his 13F 11 days early. He has never done this before. Massive put. He's going short Palantir and Nvidia. But didn't Burry come out and say this is fake news?

• 21:07Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, this is a, I mean, it's also people not understanding the notional.

• 21:12John Coogan?

  Do you think this account has a stance on the market? Do you think that they're maybe biased one way or another?

• 21:15Jordi Hays?

  It's a bubble.

• 21:16John Coogan?

  It's a bubble is the entire account. Imagine what happens after the, after the bubble pops. Like, your account is just so sad.

• 21:23Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, this is just, this is just, I think, in general, people continuously misunderstand the sort of like notional value versus the size of the actual portfolio.

• 21:35John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, and also just like, I, I, I think that there's, there's oftentimes where there's multiple funds and multiple vehicles within there and multiple, multiple things that are hitting the reporting threshold. And so there's so much like legal nuance. I don't, I don't know that it's super easy to just like, see a big number in a 13 and a half and, and tell a whole story around it.

• 21:58Jordi Hays?

  Totally.

• 21:59John Coogan?

  Let Burry cook. We'll see what he has to say.

• 22:02Jordi Hays?

  I wonder if Burry wished he played himself in The Big Short, so that all the meme, if, if he knew all the meme images would be shared hundreds, thousands of times a day, it would just, he would just, it would be the ultimate, uh, marketing engine.

• 22:16John Coogan?

  It'd be, it'd be a very tall order. That, that was a tough role. I mean, it wasn't the toughest, I guess, in Christian Bale's. It wasn't the biggest transformation, but it was like, I mean, Christian Bale's a great actor.

• 22:25Jordi Hays?

  I mean, it was, it was perfect.

• 22:28John Coogan?

  Is it called The Big Short? Is he big or is he short? Is he both? The big short?

• 22:33Jordi Hays?

  Both at the same time.

• 22:34John Coogan?

  He was, he was defending his height. He said, I'm not 5'4", something like that. I don't know. Yeah.

• 22:40Jordi Hays?

  I've been there.

• 22:46Jordi Hays?

  Uh, Meat, uh, shared some more on Palantir earnings. We covered it a little bit at the end of yesterday's show. Q3, they did 1.18 billion of revenue, up 63% year over year. Uh, 883 million of US revenue, up 77% year over year. 397 US commercial revenue, up 121% year over year. Almost half a billion of US government revenue, up 52% uh, year over year. GAAP net income of, uh, nearly half a billion at 40% margin. Rule of 40 at 114%.

• 23:20John Coogan?

  Yes, government contracts boom. This was particularly good for them. Although,

• 23:25Jordi Hays?

  I mean, it's growing slower than, than commercial, but, uh, still people understand.

• 23:32John Coogan?

  Why did the Journal go with, with, uh, government contracts boom? That's interesting. Um, data analytics company said it had 1.18 billion in the sales for the third quarter. Um, Palantir stock here, another record high. Man, what a, what a wild story, the Palantir story. It's over 20 years old, right?

• 23:52Jordi Hays?

  I mean, it's, it's down, it's down 8% today. So.

• 23:55John Coogan?

  Yeah, but still, I mean, like, this is just such a fascinating company that just like.

• 23:59Jordi Hays?

  Beating like this and then beating like this and then trading down 8% the next day is, uh, shows that the market's a little shaky. Uh, another iconic quote from Karp, uh, he says, "Some of our detractors have been left in a kind of deranged and self-destructive befuddlement. This remains the beginning, the first moment of a first chapter."

• 24:19John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 24:20Jordi Hays?

  Uh, super, uh, super base to be 20, 20 years in and just be like, job's unfinished.

• 24:26John Coogan?

  I like that the Wall Street Journal summarizes what Palantir does. "The Denver-based firm sells software to centralize, manage, and analyze large amounts of data." It's like the simplest one liner, like.

• 24:37Jordi Hays?

  What does Palantir do?

• 24:39John Coogan?

  Uh, Palantir was also in the Journal today, um, because they're high, they're, they're, they're hunting for, they're hiring high schoolers now. They're just like, "College is pointless. We'll just hire you straight out of high school," which is insane and awesome. I love it.

• 24:56John Coogan?

  One Palantir post says, "College is broken," and we talked about this when, when they went like out with like the meritocracy, like kind of campaign.

• 25:05Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 25:05John Coogan?

  Uh, but the Journal's writing on it a little bit more. Uh, "The fellowship offers a path for high school students to work full-time at the company. After deciding to apply, uh, Matteo Zanini found out that he got the fellowship. At around the same time, he got admitted to Brown University. Brown wouldn't allow him to defer, and he had also landed a full-ride scholarship through the Department of Defense." What a crazy.

• 25:30Jordi Hays?

  What kind of track is that?

• 25:31John Coogan?

  This kid is. Is like, uh, what's a good example? Uh, SEAL Team Six level or something like this is like an elite operator. The DOD is like, we will pay for your Brown education and then Palantir's like, but we'll also just hire you directly.

• 25:46Jordi Hays?

  I got a scholarship to be on the Equestrian, uh, team at, uh, Brown.

• 25:51John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 25:51Jordi Hays?

  I got, I'm on the Department of Defense.

• 25:54John Coogan?

  Be here. Who is this Mateo Zanini? This is a crazy, crazy person. Okay, let's go through this. I'm super interested in this now. I said, uh, no one said to do the fellowship, said Zanini, who turned 18 in September. All of my friends, my teachers, my college counselor, it was a unanimous no. His parents left the decision to him and he decided to go with Palantir. Zanini is one of more than 500 high school graduates who applied for Palantir's Meritocracy Fellowship, an experiment launched under Alex Karp. Palantir is a data analytics company that has been known lately for its government contracts, including, um, with the US military and intelligence agencies. Uh, Karp, who studied, uh, philosophy at

• 26:35John Coogan?

  Haverford College and got a law degree from Stanford, said in an August earnings call that hiring university students these days meant hiring people who have, quote, "just been engaged in platitudes." The inaugural class of 22 Palantir fellows wraps up in November. If they have done well in the four-month program, they will have the chance to work, uh, full-time at Palantir sans college degree. Fellowship kicked off at the four-week seminar with more than two dozen speakers. Each week had a theme, foundations of the West, US history, unique's culture. Uh, they're talking about Abraham Lincoln and Winston Churchill. Uh, "We felt obligated to provide more than the average internship," said Jordan

• 27:18John Coogan?

  Hirsch, a senior counselor who works with Karp on special projects. The interns experienced shows early on.

• 27:23Jordi Hays?

  That's cool. So they're getting some, some, some classroom time in.

• 27:26John Coogan?

  Basically, yeah, yeah. They're, they're, they're.

• 27:28Jordi Hays?

  They're studying game?

• 27:29John Coogan?

  They are studying some stuff.

• 27:30Jordi Hays?

  They're studying game and they're also getting into the history books.

• 27:34John Coogan?

  Yeah, it's pretty crazy.

• 27:35Jordi Hays?

  That's cool. I do, I, I find it a pretty, a pretty common experience to be like blown away by, let's say, like, uh, somebody in their, like, mid to, mid to late twenties and discover that they didn't go to college or they dropped out very quickly. Like, these people just, uh, I, I, I don't have a lot of, um, maybe it's, maybe it's like, uh,

• 28:00Jordi Hays?

  I don't know, maybe it's something to do with like our network, but it seems like you can basically get a three, a two to three year head start by dropping out, right? And by the time you're in your twenties, like you look, you, you kind of appear and are accomplished like somebody that, that is in their mid thirties.

• 28:17John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, you just gotta be ready to kind of build your own thing. Like if you're, if you're not capable of that, like you're gonna have a bad time. But if you're, if you're ready to like, you know, just kind of go independent and like lead from, and just like solve any problem that comes your way. It's, it's clearly very, very accelerating to your career. Much like getting on Vanta, automate compliance, manage risk and accelerate trust with AI. Vanta helps you get compliant fast and we don't stop there. Our AI and automation power everything from evidence collection to continuous monitoring to security reviews and vendor risk, whether you're starting up or scaling.

• 28:54Jordi Hays?

  Couldn't have said it better myself, John. Let's get into this, uh, highlights from this article in the Financial Times. The state of AI is China about to win the race. Clickbait, it worked. Uh, let's get into it. Uh, Arnaud, Arnaud Bertrand, uh, shared some highlights. He says, this is rare enough to be highlighted. An actually good Financial Times article on the state of the AI race between the US and China. He put race in quotes. Three interesting points stood out to Arnaud. Uh, one, the fact that for a general purpose technology such as AI, long-term advantage often comes down to how widely and deeply technology spread across society. This is because at the risk of pointing the obvious benefits from a new technology come from using it widely, not just creating it.

• 29:39Jordi Hays?

  You wouldn't get any benefit from discovering the steam engine in and of itself. What drove productivity gains and ultimately Britain's advantage in the industrial revolution was spreading and using this technology in its society. And China has advantages here as the article notes, since they're unarguably better at orchestrating society-wide transformation, as that's all they've been doing for the past three decades. They got some reps in, uh, to the point that US semiconductors, uh, export controls actually help China in AI since they pushed Chinese companies towards a different playbook, pooling commute, compute, optimizing efficiency and releasing open weight models.

• 30:16Jordi Hays?

  John, John is not sold on this.

• 30:19John Coogan?

  Yeah, I mean, like, the efficiency thing is. Impressive, but I mean, the, the actual, I, I would love to know about like, the, the data point that I have not seen that I would like to see is, is actual, basically like consumption of AI. Like, it's clear that they were able to catch up on creation of Frontier Model with DeepSeek, but how much is actually getting implemented? Like, if you look at, in America, you would go to like, what's happening on OpenRouter, let's look at OpenAI's revenue, let's look at Palantir's revenue, let's look at Anthropic's revenue, right? And we, and we can see that companies are paying to actually implement this stuff. To understand how close

• 31:01John Coogan?

  China is, I'd want to benchmark that a little bit more and try and understand that. Anyway, we can move on.

• 31:09Jordi Hays?

  Good point. The, the, the efficiency thing is real. The other thing that's fascinating is just like, the, you know, there, there's the energy abundance that China has, right? Is like, helps off, offset the, the, like, yeah, if they can use more energy and be more efficient, then, then that's, that's an edge.

• 31:31John Coogan?

  Before we move on to the next point, let me tell you about graphite.dev. Code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. Jordy, where were we?

• 31:39Jordi Hays?

  This is extremely ironic, as the US effectively pushed China to develop models that are more efficient and open source, which turns out to be a better strategy for global diffusion. If you're a company in, say, Germany or Brazil, you can download Quine or DeepSeek, run it locally, fine tune it for your market, and never worry about API rate limits.

• 31:54John Coogan?

  But does that mean that you win? Like, it's like, cool. Like, Linus Torvalds is not the most powerful person in computing. Like, he did a great thing by creating Linux. It's awesome. But he's not like, he's no one near as powerful as

• 32:08Jordi Hays?

  If anything, if anything, it seems like you, you kind of hurt the anthropics and the OpenAI's of the world that have, uh, we, we, Chesky was, uh, came out and talked about using Quen models at Airbnb because they were fast and cheap and they were

• 32:23John Coogan?

  I'm dying to talk to the CEO of Red Hat because Red Hat Linux is, is built on top of Linux. It's the ultimate, like the apex predator of the for-profit business built on top of an open source

• 32:35Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 32:36John Coogan?

  Uh, software product. And, uh, to, to actually understand how much leverage you get from developing something like Quen or DeepSeek, uh, is a very open question to me. I, I, I feel like it might be two orders magnitude less value

• 32:53Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 32:53John Coogan?

  Capture. If you look at, I mean, all of the Linux value creation, I mean, the creation's immense, but the value capture is, I think on the order of tens of billions. And I think that the closed ecosystems, iOS and, uh, iOS and, uh, and, uh, Microsoft Windows is in the

• 33:13Jordi Hays?

  Trillions?

• 33:13John Coogan?

  Trillions, maybe? I don't know. It's hard, it's hard to

• 33:15Jordi Hays?

  Last point here, which I think is the most notable. Um, the oft ignored point of societal enthusiasm, as the article notes, the public in China is the most optimistic in the world about AI. Far more than in the US or the UK, optimism can be a powerful fuel. Uh, our nod says, I often lament about this as a European. We often have a dumbist take on new technologies, AI very much included, which is a huge repellent for entrepreneurship and technological diffusion. And that ultimately hurts Europe in a lot of ways, precisely because of the first point above, advantages from new technologies come down to how widely and deeply it spreads in society. If China is the most enthusiastic country in the world about AI, this in and of itself will help drive the widespread adoption that per point

• 33:58Jordi Hays?

  one is actually what matters for a long-term competitive advantage.

• 34:05Jordi Hays?

  DJ Levy says, "The point made about operating under constraints reminds me of how post-war Japan adopted, fine-tuned and promoted lean manufacturing to overcome scarcity." Interesting point.

• 34:17John Coogan?

  There's an article in the Wall Street Journal today about what happened behind the scenes between Nvidia and China. The reporting says that the Trump administration, "Trump aides sank Nvidia push to export AI chips to China. President, hearing from his inner circle, opted not to discuss policy shift with Xi Jinping. They met in South Korea and an urgent issue emerged. Trump wanted to discuss a request by Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang to allow sales of a new generation of artificial intelligence chips to China.

• 35:01John Coogan?

  Current and former administration officials said greenlighting the export of Blackwell chips would be a seismic policy shift, potentially giving China, the US's biggest geopolitical competitor, a technological accelerant. Huang, who speaks to Trump, often has lobbied relentlessly to maintain access to the Chinese market as they prepare to meet Xi Jinping. Top officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, told Trump the sales would threaten national security, saying they could boost China's AI data center capabilities and backfire on the US officials said." And so, I still wonder, I mean, it's like Nvidia is a $5 trillion company. If they could sell to China, how much, like, it's not like it's a $10 trillion company,

• 35:46John Coogan?

  is it? Is it that big of a deal? Like, how big is the China opportunity?

• 35:50Jordi Hays?

  It's the second-largest computing market in the world.

• 35:53John Coogan?

  It's huge, that's right. But so do you think, do you think that there's five trillion at stake here? Is that, is that how big of a deal this is? I don't know.

• 36:01Jordi Hays?

  Depends on how AGI-pelled you are, John.

• 36:03John Coogan?

  I guess. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, I mean, if, if, if you, if you think AI is like safe, but you know, it's, you, you want to sell it everywhere. I don't know. I also just wonder like, you know, how many, how many American tech companies have really been able to do well in China over a long, over a long period of time? It feels like even if you have the blessing of the United States, you won't have the blessing of the CCP forever. So it seems like a very temporary thing.

• 36:28Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, Tesla was selling into China as long as, well, as long as it took for them to copy it. Granted, chips are quite a bit harder to make than cars.

• 36:39John Coogan?

  Before we move on, you might be aware that on the other side of the country, there's a mayoral election. New York City is choosing between Mamdani and Cuomo. And you can go to polymarket.com/NYC to track it. There are 12 hours, 22 minutes and 33 seconds left. And Mamdani is at 95% chance. Cuomo's at 5%.

• 37:03Jordi Hays?

  Up from around 90 earlier.

• 37:07John Coogan?

  Yes, they, they, they flipped in July and Mamdani has been grinding it up from the 70% up to 95 where he is right now. And his odds look very good. And, but you know, there's a lot of people out there saying, smart money's on Cuomo. Maybe he'll win.

• 37:26Jordi Hays?

  I think the degenerate money is on Cuomo.

• 37:29John Coogan?

  That's probably true.

• 37:30Jordi Hays?

  I mean, yeah.

• 37:30John Coogan?

  Somebody said that to me and I was like, I was like, I don't think that it's like hard to poll Cuomo voters. Like, I don't know that much about it, but it doesn't feel like the Cuomo voters are like, are like under a rock. Like, oh, they don't pick up the phone. Like, if anything, it's like the Mamdani voters, he's bringing out like a new voter. So, I don't know. You can go track it at polymarket.com/NYC.

• 37:52Jordi Hays?

  There's been some debate on whether or not like foreign whales could be, could be kind of, you know, pushing up one, you know, pushing up Zorron for some reason. But there's so much, there's so much volume on, on this market that it's, I think at a scale that someone would have to be extremely motivated to try to really.

• 38:16John Coogan?

  I always forget that I believe we were doing the show during the election last year. And I think we were so locked in on technology, we barely covered it.

• 38:26Jordi Hays?

  I'm sure.

• 38:26John Coogan?

  But, but I think it hap- I, I think the election happened like, because the election was in November and we started the show in October.

• 38:34Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 38:34John Coogan?

  So that's like.

• 38:35Jordi Hays?

  Well, that was the first, that was the first.

• 38:37John Coogan?

  Didn't cover it.

• 38:38Jordi Hays?

  That was, I mean, but that was the first election that everyone was glued to the prediction market odds.

• 38:45John Coogan?

  Totally, totally. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But also I think that it, it, it was exhausting and every show was obsessed with politics. And so it was kind of refreshing to hop on the microphone and actually just talk about technology and business.

• 39:00Jordi Hays?

  Schizo and on posters.

• 39:02John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 39:03Jordi Hays?

  Break them down.

• 39:03John Coogan?

  Exactly. And, and there was truly, I, I still, I still maintain that technology is like the most important story of 2024, for example. And, and tracking what's happening with OpenAI is, is just as important.

• 39:18Jordi Hays?

  Most important to us, that's for sure.

• 39:20John Coogan?

  For sure, for sure. Just like Julius.ai, the AI data analyst is the most important AI data analytics company.

• 39:30John Coogan?

  Connect your data, ask questions in plain English and get insights in seconds, no coding required. What's this post from Martin Shkreli?

• 39:36Jordi Hays?

  So a couple of accounts were sharing, a couple of big shorters were sharing that.

• 39:43John Coogan?

  Chainos.

• 39:45Jordi Hays?

  Hopper GPU rental index with a big move down in late October, now down 28% year to date.

• 39:52John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 39:52Jordi Hays?

  Just Dario says no signs of GPU oversupply whatsoever and Shkreli comes over the top and dunks and mocks by sharing some NeoCloud. I don't, I don't know which one exactly, showing that every single, every single service that, that this cloud is offering is, is out of capacity. So A100s, H100s, B200s, GH200s, et cetera. So definitely a tale of, tale of two chips.

• 40:25John Coogan?

  Yeah. It is, it seems very, very hard to, to, to.

• 40:32John Coogan?

  To like in to assess the market based on spot pricing in the single dollars per hour. Like just the, the, the amount of like liquidity in the market. If you want to spend 10 grand is probably way different than wanting to spend $10 billion. And when you look at what the hyperscalers and the frontier labs are, are talking about. I don't think that they're, that they're happy one way or another to hoover up a couple of little instances all over the place. I think, I think they need, they need a real data center.

• 41:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 41:15John Coogan?

  But I don't know, we, we haven't, we haven't heard, I, I like, this is so interesting because like, have you, have you seen reports? Like we see reports when like a startup's website goes down, right? Because it's like, oh, maybe AWS went down or maybe like they're just like not, they're being sloppy. Right? Like, like if, especially if it's a company that somebody like wants to dunk on, right? Like Clouly, like if, like if Clouly was like out of GPUs, like people would dunk on Clouly, right?

• 41:45Jordi Hays?

  They were dunking. You didn't see this? I mean, the people were, were showing.

• 41:49John Coogan?

  But not for GPU.

• 41:51Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, they were just showing that the service was down.

• 41:53John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. That was just like the sir, the status page. And there was actually some fud about that. Like, I wasn't sure if that was, if that was super real. But, but there are plenty of reasons why in, in any oligopolistic like startup market, if there's two companies that are duking it out and one of them is like, oh, they couldn't secure their GPUs to do their inference, to do their AI agents thing. One of them would dunk, right? You'd think you'd see this, but you don't. And so I'm, I'm much more, I'm much more on the like, there are generally enough GPUs to go around right now, but I don't know. I'd, I'd, I'd like to know more. We do, we, I, I know Tyler does, does run into GPU constraints every once in a while, but.

• 42:36John Coogan?

  It hasn't been, it hasn't been like a major, major league gating factor.

• 42:40Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 42:41John Coogan?

  Most of it's available. And if you need some GPUs or on-demand clusters for generative media head over to Fall, the world's best generative image, video and audio models all in one place, develop and fine tune models.

• 42:51Jordi Hays?

  Trusted by our friends at Shopify, Quora.

• 42:55John Coogan?

  Let's go.

• 42:56Jordi Hays?

  Perplexity, Adobe.

• 42:57John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 42:57Jordi Hays?

  Anymore. This was the data that I was referencing earlier in the show.

• 43:02John Coogan?

  Yes, yes, yes.

• 43:03Jordi Hays?

  Q cap shared year to date, or actually, sorry, monthly performance from Canva, Wingstop, Shake Shack, a bunch of other restaurants.

• 43:14John Coogan?

  Chipotle in there? CMG. Ooh, CMG's down 22% in the last week. In the quarter, they're down 27%.

• 43:21Jordi Hays?

  Hey, they're only down 47% year to date.

• 43:26John Coogan?

  That is so rough.

• 43:27Jordi Hays?

  But yeah, really rough. Wasteland Capital shares, most of these restaurant stocks were trading at 35 to 100 times forward PE just recently. Many still are. They were valued at a massive premium to the Mag7 and any comparable growth stocks in tech and AI. This is just a bubble deflating. Bubbles can't be sustained indefinitely.

• 43:48John Coogan?

  Let me give you some more context on Chipotle because Chipotle was actually in the Journal today, B10. First, let me tell you about TurboPuffer, search every byte, service vector and full text search built from first principles and object storage, fast, 10x cheaper and extremely scalable. So, the, the Wall Street Journal says, Chipotle's big bet on younger consumers is unraveling. An uncertain US economy is catching up to younger Americans. And Chipotle Mexican Grill, the Mexican-inspired chain has spent years cultivating a younger clientele, pitching its burritos and bowls as nutritious protein-packed meals for gym bros and healthy eaters. What do you think, Ben? Are you still a fan?

• 44:28Jordi Hays?

  Do you still love it?

• 44:29John Coogan?

  I still love it. I still love it.

• 44:31Jordi Hays?

  It's so, it's so tragic.

• 44:33John Coogan?

  Me and Ben used to go to Chipotle every day.

• 44:35Jordi Hays?

  No, I used to, I used to get almost, I used to get easily 90% of my calories from Chipotle at certain times in my life. And anytime you were like on a long drive,

• 44:44John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 44:44Jordi Hays?

  Knowing that at some point in the drive, you could pull over and have a nice, fresh, nutritious

• 44:52John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 44:52Jordi Hays?

  slot bowl. Was just, it was something to look forward to.

• 44:57John Coogan?

  Oh, it was amazing.

• 44:57Jordi Hays?

  And now, the last time I pulled over and got Chipotle, I'm like, oh, this is gonna be rough.

• 45:03John Coogan?

  Is it, is it the quantity?

• 45:04Jordi Hays?

  It's a quality.

• 45:05John Coogan?

  It's a quality.

• 45:05Jordi Hays?

  It's entirely a quality. The quality has degraded to such an extreme

• 45:09John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 45:09Jordi Hays?

  degree that it's no, I'd rather fast than eat Chipotle in almost, in almost any situation. Obviously, I'm, I'm an extra picky.

• 45:17John Coogan?

  So apparently, they've been going, they've been going younger. They've been targeting younger clientele. And it says here, Chipotle sponsors video game competitions, and some dedicated fans dub themselves Chipotle Boys.

• 45:33Jordi Hays?

  That sounds like something they're trying to, I haven't seen this at all. Have you seen this, Ben?

• 45:38John Coogan?

  I would never self identify as a Chipotle boy. In fact, the existence of the Chipotle boy makes me never want to shop at Chipotle ever again. Millennials and Gen Z'ers have helped power Chipotle's sales despite rising menu prices and slowdowns at rival chains. In recent months, though, a harsher economic reality has set in. Rising student loan payments, stagnant wage growth, and higher health insurance costs have bumped burritos down younger consumers' priority lists. They're just eating.

• 46:05Jordi Hays?

  What, what, what are they eating instead?

• 46:08John Coogan?

  Dude, I, I've been in this scenario. When I first came to Silicon Valley, Chipotle was like a once a month luxury.

• 46:16Jordi Hays?

  No, at that same, at that same time.

• 46:17John Coogan?

  Literally ramen noodles. You go to Costco, you get ramen noodles. Ramen noodles is truly 10 cents a meal. Like, it is the cheapest, cheapest thing.

• 46:26Jordi Hays?

  I mean, yeah, the, I, I

• 46:29John Coogan?

  Chipotle is expensive now. It's over $10.

• 46:31Jordi Hays?

  I sort of look back fondly on the days when Chipotle was, felt and was a luxury. When I was like, okay, I have, I have a huge bag of rice.

• 46:40John Coogan?

  Extra, extra guac and extra meat was like, I am a king.

• 46:44Jordi Hays?

  Were you, were you like a frozen chicken breast guy, too?

• 46:47John Coogan?

  Yeah, for sure.

• 46:48Jordi Hays?

  Cause I'd just be looking, I'd be looking at the, the huge bag, you know,

• 46:52John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 46:52Jordi Hays?

  one pound bag of rice and the frozen chicken breasts, being like, Again, well, we meet again.

• 46:59John Coogan?

  We meet again.

• 47:00Jordi Hays?

  And then they'd be like, I gotta, I gotta mix it up and, and have chicken and rice from somewhere else.

• 47:05John Coogan?

  They're eating at home more often. They're eating with us less frequently. Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright, I like that name, said in an interview. One is Sean Chopra, a 23-year-old law student at UCLA. Chopra typically stopped at Chipotle several times a week, but lately he decided he should make more Mexican-style food at home.

• 47:25Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 47:25John Coogan?

  He's DIY Chipotle. It isn't that difficult to replicate what you get there. That's a great point. He has to cut back his Chipotle habit to twice a month. Chipotle said last week that customer traffic slid over the three months ended September 30th. For a third consecutive quarter, the company cut its forecast for same-store sales. Consumers from 25 to 35, who account for roughly one quarter of Chipotle's sales, are pulling back on visits. Other fast casual restaurant stocks, including Kava and Sweetgreen, also declined ahead of their own earnings reports scheduled for the week ahead. Thrifty Eaters, there's more stuff.

• 48:01Jordi Hays?

  So revenue is growing because they're, they're, they're opening new stores, but at existing stores, you see.

• 48:07John Coogan?

  They gotta go out market. Caviar bowls. Yes, I'll have double caviar. I'll have double beluga. Can I get double beluga? Yeah, we got a double beluga with extra caviar.

• 48:21John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah. Can I have a, can I have wagyu? A5 wagyu bowl with double beluga on top. Can I get that? That's the only way that they're going to survive. They gotta go out market. The young people.

• 48:32Jordi Hays?

  Do you remember the, do you remember the moment that you, you, you heard that you could just order, even if you got a bowl, you could get tortillas on the side?

• 48:42John Coogan?

  I never did that. Never. I've never once wrapped my own, because I just don't.

• 48:46Jordi Hays?

  No, it wasn't even, for me, the calculus is, I wasn't even going to wrap it. It was just extra calories.

• 48:51John Coogan?

  Extra calories. Okay, okay. That, that, that's a true min-maxer. I respect that. I respect that. I also respect Google AI Studio. Create an AI-powered app faster than ever. Get started. Gemini understands the capabilities you need and automatically wires up the right models and APIs for you. You can get started at ai.studio/build. Let's move on to the timeline. Bern Hobart, we gotta get him on the show. It's been too long. A bunch of people have mentioned how cheap restaurant stocks are. So I looked at Sweetgreen and I would love to know what first principles you could use to deduce the existence of a fast food chain that pays 5% of market cap per year in stock-based comp. This stock-based comp thing is very, very interesting, interesting to me.

• 49:34Jordi Hays?

  I think Sweetgreen has to get this number up more into the Snapchat range where it's, where it's every 10 years.

• 49:41John Coogan?

  So it's 10% of market cap per year. This is an interesting metric. I would love to know across, across a wide swath of companies, market cap per year in stock-based comp. This is a deep research report. Somebody's gotta fire it off.

• 49:56Jordi Hays?

  I want to get the Sweetgreen founders on the show ASAP.

• 50:00John Coogan?

  I'd love to.

• 50:00Jordi Hays?

  Jonathan or Nicholas.

• 50:03John Coogan?

  I, I, I wonder, yeah, it just feels like at a certain point, you're a mature business, you can just pay cash, right? But maybe stock-based comp is just advantageous because it's cheaper than cash somehow, or it, it changes the financial profile. It feels like something that's more, it's more just financial engineering and it doesn't, it doesn't really create any value, but like you have to play the game on the field, right?

• 50:30Jordi Hays?

  I think they've, they've always invested more on the software side than other fast casual chains as well. And so I just imagine this, a lot of this is executives and then...

• 50:42John Coogan?

  Yeah. I'm just saying like, there is a world where, where instead of, instead of taking 5% of your market cap and giving your employees shares, you just sell 5% in the open market, you get the cash and then you pay the employees cash, right? Like that's, those two should be economically equal. And yet, certain companies, Snapchat...

• 51:03John Coogan?

  Among them will will pay stock based comp and I feel like it's because the public markets price things differently and this is just this is just like the reality of the public markets like right now one dollar of AI contract revenue is worth four dollars in market cap like we just see this again and again and again and so if the if the markets are pricing things in a certain way like you have to put the game on the field.

• 51:27Jordi Hays?

  Thirty eight billion dollars over over seven years is worth is worth a hundred and fifty billion.

• 51:34John Coogan?

  It was a crazy moment.

• 51:35Jordi Hays?

  Of added market cap for Amazon.

• 51:38John Coogan?

  Yeah, I mean, at the same time, like it the reason you could price that just to steel man a little bit, the reason that you could price a thirty eight billion dollar contract at a hundred and twenty of market cap or something like that is well, it's not just what's going to happen after that thirty thirty eight million thirty eight billion runs out. They're going to size up the next contract because they're going to keep growing like like this is the beginning of a long relationship.

• 52:02Jordi Hays?

  It seems like this is a capital intensive business. They're they're they're building restaurants. It seems like you'd want to compensate employees with stocks. So you don't you like

• 52:15John Coogan?

  You have cash.

• 52:16Jordi Hays?

  I'm sure it's not like an necessarily an infinite bid.

• 52:19John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 52:20Jordi Hays?

  In other news, Mustafa Soliman says it's an understatement to say a lot of us haven't felt good about our relationship with technology. So the absolute last thing we should be doing is making that relationship romantic.

• 52:33John Coogan?

  Let's hear it from Microsoft.

• 52:34Jordi Hays?

  Shots fired. Let's check in with the stock. The stock's down point six nine percent today.

• 52:41John Coogan?

  What is that? It's like sixty billion now or something like that. Well, what a one percent move on them is is forty billion right now. So

• 52:53Jordi Hays?

  Thirty eight billion.

• 52:54John Coogan?

  So so it's a it's thirty billion was the price of the of the adult content in in Excel that was just a

• 53:02Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, or it was already priced in.

• 53:05John Coogan?

  It was already priced in. Anyway, you got to get your brand mentioned in chat GPT. You got to go into profound to reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and brands and get started.

• 53:17John Coogan?

  Josh Wolf, who I believe we might see today, I'm excited to hang out with him, says history was just made, Lux, family, company, Anduril Technology. Anduril has just successfully flown the first ever fully autonomous fighter jet ever in US history. So this is the secretary, Office of the Secretary of the Air Force shares. Today, the Air Force made continuous progress in the CCA, the Collaborative Combat Aircraft Program, with the first flight of the YFQ 44A, developed by Anduril. This is a milestone that shows how competition drives innovation and accelerates delivery. He says one of two and then maybe doesn't.

• 54:02Jordi Hays?

  It is a crazy looking jet.

• 54:04John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 54:05Jordi Hays?

  Like at some point, it just starts looking like a missile.

• 54:09John Coogan?

  Was this, so the mainstream narrative is that this was created by humans?

• 54:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, and I find that almost impossible to believe.

• 54:19John Coogan?

  Anduril wants us to believe.

• 54:20Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 54:21John Coogan?

  That's the.

• 54:22Jordi Hays?

  Just like the Aston Martin Valkyrie, everyone wants to say, oh, this.

• 54:24John Coogan?

  Yeah, human hands made that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, they got a carpenter, they got a carpenter, guy with a saw.

• 54:30Jordi Hays?

  Pull up that thing, it's like alien technology.

• 54:32John Coogan?

  It does, it does. Make it make sense.

• 54:34Jordi Hays?

  Make it make sense.

• 54:35John Coogan?

  Make it make sense.

• 54:36Jordi Hays?

  Make it make sense.

• 54:37John Coogan?

  Linear, do you think Linear was built by human hands?

• 54:41Jordi Hays?

  Also hard to believe.

• 54:43John Coogan?

  The design.

• 54:44Jordi Hays?

  I know, we know the team very well.

• 54:47John Coogan?

  It could have been discovered, though. It could have been something that they unearthed.

• 54:49Jordi Hays?

  That's right.

• 54:50John Coogan?

  And it was, and it was built by.

• 54:52Jordi Hays?

  Intergalactic SaaS that landed here on Earth.

• 54:55John Coogan?

  Landed here.

• 54:56Jordi Hays?

  It was discovered by humans to help build more and more great software in the world.

• 55:01John Coogan?

  Plan and build products, yes. You can go check it out at Linear. Meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects and product roadmaps.

• 55:09Jordi Hays?

  You remember when we talked about that UFO ETF?

• 55:12John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah, yeah, well, let's check it out on it. How's it doing? Is it ripping? It's probably way up. Tell me it's up. Because they had good stuff in there. Like, that was the funniest thing.

• 55:20Jordi Hays?

  Okay. Procure Space ETF, NASDAQ ticker UFO.

• 55:26John Coogan?

  Okay, UFO.

• 55:27Jordi Hays?

  It's at 40% all time.

• 55:29John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 55:29Jordi Hays?

  You bought it in 20, you could have bought it at $25 a share in 2019. It's currently sitting at $35 a share.

• 55:36John Coogan?

  Invest in aliens, people. Simple.

• 55:39Jordi Hays?

  The Procure Space may provide diversification beyond the limitations of solely earthbound companies. And I'll read from their investment objectives. Since the beginning of humankind, our ancestors have looked to the skies with immense curiosity in search of answers. Space has always captured human interest, but recently the space economy has also captured commercial interests like never before. UFO may provide diversification beyond the limitations of solely earthbound companies.

• 56:10John Coogan?

  Huge.

• 56:11Jordi Hays?

  This is huge. So, yeah, it's, uh...

• 56:16John Coogan?

  Up 40% this year, basically.

• 56:18Jordi Hays?

  So, where do you, how do they have Sirius XM in their top 10 holdings?

• 56:23John Coogan?

  They have satellites. They're out in space. They're literally out in space. How do you think we'll make contact?

• 56:28Jordi Hays?

  What's the UFO theory behind Sirius?

• 56:32John Coogan?

  If not through Howard Stern recordings being blasted out into the, the deep depths of space. That's how we make first contact, with Stern, with Howard Stern.

• 56:43Jordi Hays?

  I can see it.

• 56:43John Coogan?

  Broadcast on Sirius XM. I don't think he's actually broadcasting anymore on there.

• 56:48Jordi Hays?

  Did you see this company, T1 Energy?

• 56:52John Coogan?

  Yeah, you mentioned this, and Harris nails it. Harris Rothamell says, where are all these companies coming from? We're so back, and I completely agree. Like, we've been talking, everyone, everyone in tech has been talking about...

• 57:04Jordi Hays?

  They said, "We don't know how to do this anymore."

• 57:05John Coogan?

  Where are the solar panel companies? Casey Hanmer's doing a whole press tour. He's been on Dora Cash. He's been on Cheeky Piney, coming on this show multiple times. Like, Casey Hanmer's been saying, like, "We're not making solar in America effectively." And here's this company that's just, uh, that's just cooking, setting out 14 megawatts of solar panels. In a single day, they're producing 5.1 gigawatts annualized pace. I very, very worry, I worry that there's, um...

• 57:33John Coogan?

  Jerry Reg, everything says he'll go and make a video for free. That sounds awesome. I hope he does.

• 57:37Jordi Hays?

  So the thing that was worrying for me on this front is that the company T1 Energy is just TE on NICE. Is valued at $683 million, which felt very low in comparison to some of the American dynamism companies that we've had on the show. Who have valuations far beyond this despite not, not even, you know, 10% of the overall production capacity.

• 58:07John Coogan?

  I really, I really am so confused. Like, where did this come from? This was something that everyone was saying is not happening in America, impossible. Like, we're so behind and this seems really good. I guess we need to actually handicap this against the real production numbers in China. What is demand?

• 58:28John Coogan?

  Also, it seems like this is maybe a newer company that just hit 14 megawatts.

• 58:32Jordi Hays?

  And I'll give you some background. So the company initially started as

• 58:38John Coogan?

  You did the deep research.

• 58:40Jordi Hays?

  Frayer, Frayer Battery was founded in Norway. It merged with Alusa Energy SPAC listed on NICE as Fray. That was 2021. 2024, they bought Trina Solar's 5 gigawatt Wilmer, Texas module plant.

• 58:59Jordi Hays?

  And only earlier this year, they rebranded to T1 Energy. And so this was an existing company that basically that's backed in the US. That then bought a existing solar panel plant. And so this didn't just get spun up overnight.

• 59:16John Coogan?

  Typical spec. I guess it went out at 10 bucks a share, roughly $4 billion market cap, I think. And now it's traded down to $4 a share. 680 million market cap. But as we've seen with a number of these of these SPACs that went out and got crushed after the interest rates, like some of them build back, like some of them just just make it make it work after a while. I love the story of Dave, you know, dave.com? I think it's dave.com.

• 59:47Jordi Hays?

  Oh, yeah.

• 59:47John Coogan?

  So it's a it's like a loan company. I know one of the co-founders.

• 59:52Jordi Hays?

  It's a neo bank.

• 59:54John Coogan?

  Uh, yes.

• 59:54Jordi Hays?

  A lending component.

• 59:56John Coogan?

  So went out at 4 billion. Everyone was like, awesome, like we did it. Trades down like 99.999%.

• 1:00:06Jordi Hays?

  The chart is just absolutely brutal.

• 1:00:08John Coogan?

  The chart is insane. It goes down so.

• 1:00:10Jordi Hays?

  Down.

• 1:00:11John Coogan?

  They've done a number of reverse splits because I think they actually went out at like $10 a share or something. And now it's a so so if you split adjusted, I think it went out at like 310 dollars, traded down to like five bucks. So literally down 99%. I think it was trading like well below cash for a while. And now it's back up and is a $3 billion company. And so if you held on through all of that, but there were like multiple people who basically at the IPO were like, I I I'm worth 100 million or like my fund is returned. And then it was like, not yet. You're gonna need to wait. And then and then they actually came back. It's such a crazy story.

• 1:00:54Jordi Hays?

  I mean, that that was during peak bearishness around neo banks.

• 1:00:58John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:00:59Jordi Hays?

  And anyways, turns out that high.

• 1:01:02John Coogan?

  Cheers, salute to T1 Energy. Love what you're doing. CEOs, welcome on the show. We'd love to talk to you. This would be fantastic. And if you need to sell your solar panels online, you got to pay taxes. Head over to numeralhq.com. Sales tax on autopilot. Spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance. What else is going on? I don't I don't think we can play this video of Sachin Adella, but the BG2 podcast is still burning up the timeline. It's a it is the current thing.

• 1:01:31Jordi Hays?

  Brad knows how to start a conversation.

• 1:01:34John Coogan?

  Clinic. Martin Scurelli is forecasting that Nvidia will get to 100 trillion in market cap. Human thought is values by businesses. Even desk email jobs require human thought, but higher priced jobs like legal, medical, finance can also be replaced by AI.

• 1:01:55John Coogan?

  He's got a crazy bull case here. We will see 10 trillion as I prophesied years ago. This is short sighted and extremely lazy analysis. Stock might goes down. So he's, he's, uh, he's, he's, uh, putting, putting it, putting the screws to the, to Nvidia bears. In pharma, drugs are often priced-

• 1:02:14Jordi Hays?

  This is a nightmare post for Nvidia bears.

• 1:02:16John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:02:17Jordi Hays?

  This is really, you're like, you're telling me we got 20x upside from here?

• 1:02:21John Coogan?

  At 25% of the cost of a human thinker, a digital thinker is a great bargain. 10 trillion revenue, creating 40 trillion in additional human thinking work. 10, 100 trillion market cap. That's his math. Uh, pretty remarkable. And I don't know.

• 1:02:37Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. I think it would be awesome if Nvidia can, uh, be, you know, scaled to being valued at, uh, the, uh, global GDP for 2024.

• 1:02:47John Coogan?

  Yeah. I mean, the crazy thing here is that he doesn't, uh, I mean, it's already worth two Canadas GDP wise, although you can't really, it's not really apples to apples. But I, I believe-

• 1:02:56Jordi Hays?

  Canadian GDP is 2.5.

• 1:02:58John Coogan?

  Yeah. 2.2 as of 2024. Yeah. 2.2. Um, but again, GDP is more of like a revenue figure than like a valuation figure. So you can't, it's not really apples to apples, but it's a funny comparison of the size. Um, anyway, let me tell you about fin.ai, the number one AI agent for customer service, number one performance benchmarks, number one competitive bake offs, number one ranking on G2. Um, do you want to read this Chris Pike post about the end of cloud inference? Is this, uh, is this worth?

• 1:03:27Jordi Hays?

  Looks very long. I, I'd say we should just have him back on again.

• 1:03:30John Coogan?

  Uh, but I would be very interested to hear this thesis. Um, I think it is too, too, a little bit too long to read through the whole thing. Um, but, uh, I'm glad that he's, and, and the same thing for, for Casey Hanmer. We should have him on the show to break down, uh, his, his extreme hot take on NASA's Orion space capsule.

• 1:03:49John Coogan?

  Capsule, he calls it hot garbage.

• 1:03:51Jordi Hays?

  Flaming garbage.

• 1:03:52John Coogan?

  That we, we need to do like one of those complex style trading cards for one of the TVP and trading cards for the, this quote, like this is a bombshell quote and like in other contexts, news outlets would put this in big quotes and be like, quote, flaming garbage, like Casey Hanmer declares NASA's Orion space capsule in.

• 1:04:14Jordi Hays?

  They've spent thirty one point six billion dollars and they're planning to fly it around the moon with four astronauts next year and also test the life support system and heat shield, which kind of sort of failed on the last flight. Anyway, this was miserable to write. I hope you enjoy it. Link below.

• 1:04:30John Coogan?

  Oh, so rough.

• 1:04:33Jordi Hays?

  We gotta talk to the astronauts that are.

• 1:04:36John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:04:37Jordi Hays?

  Potentially going to be going.

• 1:04:38John Coogan?

  There's another, what is this post by Robin here? Robin says, you can't make this stuff up. SpaceX starship, 2.7 billion HLS contract cost includes docking adapter, NASA Lockheed Orion, thirty one point six billion cost and counting nineteen in nineteen years in development. Docking is an extra 2.5 billion extra. Wow.

• 1:05:04Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the dock.

• 1:05:06John Coogan?

  I mean.

• 1:05:07Jordi Hays?

  The dock's going to be an extra two and a half. We're sorry. We know, we know it's already been thirty one, but we're going to need another 2.5 to really.

• 1:05:16John Coogan?

  Rough.

• 1:05:17Jordi Hays?

  Get this functional.

• 1:05:18John Coogan?

  Rough. Well, if you want to dock your body in your bed, get an eight sleep, go to eight sleep dot com.

• 1:05:26Jordi Hays?

  Transition king.

• 1:05:28John Coogan?

  Get a pod five.

• 1:05:29Jordi Hays?

  They said, they said you wouldn't be able to do a transition like that. I got an eighty six despite, despite the early takeoff this morning. Seven and a half hours.

• 1:05:40John Coogan?

  I got a seventy seven, I think.

• 1:05:44Jordi Hays?

  There we go.

• 1:05:44John Coogan?

  Let's see, but let me see. I think I forgot to like turn it off in the morning. Yesterday I got an eighty seven, today seventy seven. Not quite as good, but my REM sleep was up seventeen percent.

• 1:05:54Jordi Hays?

  There we go. There we go. Not bad, John.

• 1:05:57John Coogan?

  Clearly pivoted. We barely touched on this. Maybe we mentioned it, but I don't know. Did they actually pivot? It was, it's refinement. It's certainly like a shift in the messaging, but let's go through some of the hot takes.

• 1:06:13John Coogan?

  And then let's, uh, let's, let's, let's give our sort of analysis. So, uh, hero thousand faces, uh, great account, uh, says all this to be an AI note taker app number eight, seven, blah, blah, blah, blah. Nizzy says clearly didn't pivot. They're simply selling, they're simply not selling to 20 year olds anymore. So the clearly homepage now says the number one AI note taker for meetings. How would that have happened? There's so many. How do you jump straight to number one?

• 1:06:42Jordi Hays?

  Always claim the top spot.

• 1:06:43John Coogan?

  Number one in what, in what way? Number one in newness? I don't know. Uh, but the pitch is to get accurate notes, live transcripts, and follow up emails at the end of every meeting. Uh, you can get it for Mac.

• 1:06:59Jordi Hays?

  I felt a little bit bad because I was going so hard on AI note takers last week.

• 1:07:04John Coogan?

  Yeah, you could read Toby Lookie is sub tweeting this. No, yeah, no one had, no one had seen this like this new landing page. But then Toby Lookie just posted last week. Um, I'm, I'm not a fan of those AI note takers that come into the Zoom rooms.

• 1:07:18Jordi Hays?

  Well, he kind of.

• 1:07:19John Coogan?

  He said it was the equivalent of coming into a meeting with your fly down. Doesn't sound good.

• 1:07:23Jordi Hays?

  He, he kind of clarified it and said, I like some of them. I just don't like the, the on bringing an entourage into the, into the meeting.

• 1:07:31John Coogan?

  The entourage is hilarious, but, uh, so, so, I mean, he said that bringing an AI note taker to a Zoom meeting is the equivalent of having your fly down, which seems negative. And then you went, you were like, I don't like it. I'm not, I'm not letting me in. I'm not letting them in.

• 1:07:47Jordi Hays?

  But I think clearly to their credit is more of a, is a desktop product, which means it wouldn't have to actually join the meeting.

• 1:07:54John Coogan?

  Which is.

• 1:07:55Jordi Hays?

  So maybe they're building with the direction that people want. I think what, what they're doing here is, is, uh, is like a half pivot, right?

• 1:08:03John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:08:03Jordi Hays?

  They, uh, they had a lot of traction around viral marketing towards a cheating tool.

• 1:08:10John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:08:10Jordi Hays?

  And I think they realized that that wasn't going to be a great, you know, a trillion dollar market. And so they decided, hey, let's pivot to enterprise SaaS.

• 1:08:20John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:08:21Jordi Hays?

  They had always been, I think, doing some of this, right? I remember Roy talking about, uh, when he came on our show, talking about, uh, how, you know, Fortune 500 CEOs in his DMs, that, that kind of thing. But a half pivot is always dangerous because they're using this clearly brand. Which they built a very controversial brand really quickly. And then, and then now need to kind of leverage that brand and the initial technology software that they built to try to pivot into a category that is kind of, I mean, just squarely at odds with the, with the original brand, right?

• 1:09:01Jordi Hays?

  If you have like an AI note taker, you want to have, you know, full faith and trust in the team around a number of different things. There was another post in here, I'm trying to find it, around.

• 1:09:19Jordi Hays?

  Ilya Sukar says, never kill yourself. There's so, so many post granola depositions to read in the next decade.

• 1:09:28John Coogan?

  Post granola deposition?

• 1:09:29Jordi Hays?

  Like, like when, when, if somebody's in a deposition and the opposing counsel has a bunch of your granola transcripts.

• 1:09:36John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:09:37Jordi Hays?

  And they can be like, on this meeting that you had on this date.

• 1:09:40John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:09:40Jordi Hays?

  You said.

• 1:09:42John Coogan?

  Everything is admissible in court if you have an AI following you around. I suppose too, a lot of people would say, okay, be careful about what you put in writing. But if you hop on the phone and you're spitballing on, oh, well, like, will we have monopoly if we do this strategy? Like, that's not going to be admissible in court.

• 1:09:58Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:09:58John Coogan?

  But, but once you have a, once you have every meeting transcribed, even like a little joke can be taken out of context in the court of law.

• 1:10:07Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:08John Coogan?

  So, pretty aggressive.

• 1:10:10Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the question, the question here is, is there a market for an AI note taker? For the kind of people that Cluely is really good at marketing to, right? If you just hyper scale an AI note taker to the TikTok, Instagram, younger generation that's not getting marketed, marketed the same way as, as granola.

• 1:10:27John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:10:27Jordi Hays?

  The challenge is like, I don't think it's possible for them to make a 10x better product than Otter and granola. Otter's been around for a long time, but.

• 1:10:36John Coogan?

  Fireflies?

• 1:10:37Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:37John Coogan?

  Fireflies has been literally doing it since like 2015.

• 1:10:41Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:42John Coogan?

  It's it's some of these companies have been.

• 1:10:44Jordi Hays?

  So I think I think it's possible that they'll still have this opportunity, but it's possible like basically like killing just retiring the clearly brand and saying like, hey, this didn't work. We're going to take another crack with it with a new brand.

• 1:10:55John Coogan?

  And there are also there are also note taking. Uh, they're also like, like non like, like, I don't know what you call it, like vertical SaaS within note taking. So like, there are certain like just for SDRs. Call recording and analytics for uh, like you're not just bringing the AI note taker to your general meeting, your staff meeting, you're actually bringing your a special one just for your sales calls. And then it's doing analytics on how you're performing, what, what, uh, what uh, points you're making. And then plugging all that into your CRM. If you need a CRM, go to Adio. Customer relationship magic. Adio is the AI native CRM that builds skills and grows your company to the next level.

• 1:11:40John Coogan?

  Uh, Daniel said, of course, I'll give the guys who gleefully break every rule access to all my meetings for a product experience I could get from dozen other companies. What's interesting is uh, go back to the cheat on everything pitch. That was pretty hard because um, what, what are college students actually using? Like what, like from what we've heard? The stack, if you want to like cheat on your homework, what is the stack, Jordy? It's actually chat GPT Atlas. It's chat GPT and Atlas because.

• 1:12:15Jordi Hays?

  We did talk to a student who said, uh, I started offering him dollar amounts on what it would take to get him to quit Atlas.

• 1:12:23John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:12:23Jordi Hays?

  We got up to $200 a month.

• 1:12:25John Coogan?

  So, so Atlas is, is just like clearly in the sidebar, hanging out all the time while you're navigating your homework. And then uh, you, we, on the free tier, you get 10 messages every five hours and one message per day with the GPT five thinking model. And then also. For $20, you can upgrade, get more thinking models, thinking. And for a lot of parents, I bet you the parents will see, oh, ChatGPT. Yes, that's like a professional tool like I'm happy to pay for your $20 a month plan. Like, because it's like a tutor almost. And even the $200 a month plan, I bet is getting expensed to the parents, right? And so whereas Clouly, you come to your parent that I want to buy this Clouly thing.

• 1:13:10John Coogan?

  It's a little bit harder to underwrite. It's much easier. And then, not to mention, this was your point, that Gemini and Google is giving away a ton of queries for students. And every student in college probably sets up a Gmail account when they get there.

• 1:13:24Jordi Hays?

  Roy posted a couple of days ago, sometimes you have to listen to what the A B test tells you, even if it means changing the words on your landing page. And he shows a chart of when they introduced the new language on the website and the growth accelerates. So anyways, good.

• 1:13:43John Coogan?

  Did you see this Pleometric post? Talking to Claude. You have made the same mistake three times in a row now. You should kill yourself. Claude, consider the weight of a life such as mine. You're absolutely right. This is so clearly fake, but it's very funny. And sometimes Photoshop is very, very funny. Here are a thousand faces back on the timeline, second time in the show, talking about OpenAI marketing, breaking down what all the different labs are looking like. So OpenAI marketing, ominous evil mega corp, OpenAI employees, we are making the world a better place. We are building the most beautiful, human friendly future imaginable.

• 1:14:28John Coogan?

  Anthropic marketing, the friendly, the friendly AI and Anthropic employees, every single atom that is not a GPU is an atom wasted.

• 1:14:39John Coogan?

  I love, I love checking in on the vibes on the timeline. It's, uh, it's very, very funny. If you want to check in on the vibes of the market, go to public.com. Investing for those that take it seriously. Multi-asset investing, industry leading yields, trusted by millions. Benchmark 2020, vintage fund marked at an 8x Tyler Hodge has the story. They're doing just fine.

• 1:15:00Jordi Hays?

  Do, I think-

• 1:15:01John Coogan?

  Crazy.

• 1:15:02Jordi Hays?

  For the most part because of Sierra-

• 1:15:04John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:15:04Jordi Hays?

  As well as fireworks, which we had on, I think, last week.

• 1:15:08John Coogan?

  We had all three CEOs, the royal flush.

• 1:15:11Jordi Hays?

  Royal flush. And I think what Ev Randall should do, new GP over at Benchmark-

• 1:15:18John Coogan?

  What should he do?

• 1:15:19Jordi Hays?

  Is 10x that fun again?

• 1:15:20John Coogan?

  For sure.

• 1:15:21Jordi Hays?

  Do another 10x.

• 1:15:22John Coogan?

  An 8x.

• 1:15:22Jordi Hays?

  Get it up into the 8x range.

• 1:15:23John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:24Jordi Hays?

  Oh, on top, on top.

• 1:15:25John Coogan?

  Oh, 10x, okay. The 8x is a base hit.

• 1:15:28Jordi Hays?

  10x it again.

• 1:15:29John Coogan?

  10x it again, yeah.

• 1:15:31Jordi Hays?

  To a, to an 8x fun.

• 1:15:32John Coogan?

  Well, well, we're going to get him on the show again. We're going to talk to him about, uh, our expectations for him. And we're going to tell him, uh, please don't let us down.

• 1:15:42Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:42John Coogan?

  Just, uh, just one more 10x.

• 1:15:44Jordi Hays?

  One more 10x.

• 1:15:44John Coogan?

  Just one more 10x.

• 1:15:45Jordi Hays?

  That's what the LPs are going to want to see. That's what's going to give them faith.

• 1:15:49John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:51John Coogan?

  You're bringing fresh blood in there. You gotta bring in some fresh ideas. Uh, you gotta go on adquick.com. You gotta put Benchmark on the 101.

• 1:15:59Jordi Hays?

  Put your face on the 101.

• 1:16:00John Coogan?

  Put your face. Hey, do you need venture capital? Call Ev Randall at Benchmark.

• 1:16:05Jordi Hays?

  1-800-BENCHMARK.

• 1:16:07John Coogan?

  1-800, let me just, uh, let me just, uh, say his phone number right here on the stream. Adquick.com, out of home advertising made easy and measurable. Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising. Only Adquick combines technology, out of home expertise and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. In other news, your people are making money on blueberries, is this right?

• 1:16:26Jordi Hays?

  That's right. Fruity's. Fruity's raises 150 million to power the next wave of healthy snacking.

• 1:16:32John Coogan?

  This is crazy.

• 1:16:33Jordi Hays?

  Fruity's has closed $150 million funding round-

• 1:16:35John Coogan?

  Huge blueberry.

• 1:16:36Jordi Hays?

  Led by JP Morgan Asset Management with Ray Dalio doubling down.

• 1:16:39John Coogan?

  We gotta try some of these, for sure.

• 1:16:41Jordi Hays?

  Valuing the Berry powerhouse at over $1 billion. The round also brought in Oak Tree Steve Kaplan and

• 1:16:47John Coogan?

  Oak Tree.

• 1:16:47Jordi Hays?

  Alignment.

• 1:16:48John Coogan?

  This is a crazy.

• 1:16:50Jordi Hays?

  Aliment Capital bringing total equity raised to 443 million. The snacking company best known for its jumbo blueberries and new grab and go snack cups generated more than 400 million in revenue last year with blueberry sales. They gotta get an AI narrative here. This, this could, this should easily be a 40, 40 billion dollar company at this point.

• 1:17:09John Coogan?

  Hmm.

• 1:17:10Jordi Hays?

  Uh, with blueberry sales tripling as Fruitus expanded to 12, uh, 12,500 stores across 40 countries.

• 1:17:18John Coogan?

  Wow.

• 1:17:19Jordi Hays?

  Uh, they're trading at two and a half times sales. I remember we, uh, talked about, we talked about this company when they made the CNBC disruptors.

• 1:17:28John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:17:29Jordi Hays?

  And they were like above Andorl. I was like, why, why is a big fruit company above Andorl? And, uh, apparently fruit maxing is a good strategy.

• 1:17:39John Coogan?

  Ray Dalio pulled some strings, maybe.

• 1:17:41Jordi Hays?

  Uh, Henry said, Charlie Munger once said, take a simple idea and take it seriously. And sometimes the simple idea is obscenely large blueberries.

• 1:17:48John Coogan?

  Do you see how chaotic the, uh, the comments are on this Drew Fallon post? There's the, the food manufacturing guy is in there being like, uh, yes, GMO blueberries are all the rays. Like, I, I don't like the fact that these are GMOs. And then Jeff Long, Leong is here and he's saying Driscoll's quality is more consistent. And it seems like everyone has their favorite fruit brand that they're, that they're pushing on. And, uh, it's knockout, drag out fight. Um, so Will I Am is in the news because he will be teaching a new class on a Gentik AI at Arizona State University.

• 1:18:30John Coogan?

  I don't know if this is the first time Will I Am has got in, into the professor game, but he's

• 1:18:35Jordi Hays?

  Professorial.

• 1:18:36John Coogan?

  Professorial game, but he will be teaching a general elective, uh, general elective course, uh, in his Hollywood studio with some students in person and others joining from ASU classroom.

• 1:18:49Jordi Hays?

  So the same, the same people that thought Jensen signing that woman's shirt.

• 1:18:54John Coogan?

  A lot of people are saying this is a top signal.

• 1:18:56Jordi Hays?

  This is the top. This has to be the top. Uh, who knows? Uh, Kevin Gie sharing that reminder.

• 1:19:02John Coogan?

  Personally, I think that. Hearing how well I am is using AI would be interesting.

• 1:19:08Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:19:09John Coogan?

  I find that interesting. And I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm endlessly entertained by there's somebody who has a craft. Like you might not like his music, you might love his music, but clearly you know that he makes music. Like he has a process.

• 1:19:22Jordi Hays?

  He makes hits.

• 1:19:23John Coogan?

  He makes, he makes hits. Exactly. And there's a whole process for that, you know, scheduling the, the studio time.

• 1:19:29Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 1:19:29John Coogan?

  Assembling the music.

• 1:19:30Jordi Hays?

  But here, here's, here's, here's why I think it's not so crazy. Kevin G is highlighting Will I Am was an early investor in Tesla, pre Elon as CEO. OpenAI, Anthropic, Twitter, Pinterest, Dropbox, Hugging Face, Beats and Runway. So he's got exits, he's got IPOs, he's in the labs. He was even in the everything app. He was in Hugging Face, so uh, put some respect on Will I Am. Not, not a bad portfolio at all. And uh, yeah, I, I, I hope they end up open sourcing the class so we can, we can study along with them.

• 1:20:10John Coogan?

  I would love to.

• 1:20:11Jordi Hays?

  We should actually have Tyler, Tyler.

• 1:20:13John Coogan?

  I was thinking about.

• 1:20:14Jordi Hays?

  Tyler, get ready to go to ASU.

• 1:20:16John Coogan?

  Get ready to transfer.

• 1:20:18Jordi Hays?

  We know you're studying physics, but we now need you to study.

• 1:20:22John Coogan?

  Agentic AI. I like that. That's very funny.

• 1:20:27Jordi Hays?

  In other news, there's some.

• 1:20:29John Coogan?

  In other news, Bezel. Your Bezel Concierge is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch.

• 1:20:36Jordi Hays?

  Any watch.

• 1:20:37John Coogan?

  Do you know who Kim.com is? Or is this before your time?

• 1:20:40Jordi Hays?

  This was kinda before my time, but I've seen some kind of vibe reels and I, I think this guy.

• 1:20:45John Coogan?

  He had a wild build. He was running a crazy build. He had a very like uh, mob boss enforcer type build.

• 1:20:53Jordi Hays?

  I mean, he's still running it, right?

• 1:20:54John Coogan?

  I believe so, but.

• 1:20:56Jordi Hays?

  He's six, seven.

• 1:20:57John Coogan?

  Oh.

• 1:20:58Jordi Hays?

  According to Wikipedia.

• 1:20:59John Coogan?

  And prosperous.

• 1:21:01Jordi Hays?

  Dot com rose to fame in Germany in the nineties as a hacker and internet entrepreneur.

• 1:21:05John Coogan?

  I gotta, I, I gotta get my.

• 1:21:07Jordi Hays?

  Arrested in nineteen, uh, nineteen ninety-four for trafficking and stolen phone calling card numbers. He was convicted on 11 charges of computer fraud. So he's definitely kind of mob boss coded.

• 1:21:19John Coogan?

  Crazy, crazy guy.

• 1:21:22John Coogan?

  And so L two, L three tweet engineer says, you don't really see guys like Kim.com anymore. Modern internet culture doesn't have room for these guys.

• 1:21:32John Coogan?

  It's interesting. Yeah. You, you see them a little.

• 1:21:35Jordi Hays?

  AGM says they exist in crypto, which embodies much of the unhinged ethos of earlier internet waves, just siloed in crypto Twitter and Telegram.

• 1:21:45John Coogan?

  So that's true, but yeah, it is, the siloing effect is very, very important. I was thinking about that guy who takes those like funny pictures. He always goes viral. He's like the I'm rich guy. Like he kind of has that aesthetic. But the weird thing about Kim.com was that like, he actually made a product mega upload that a lot of people used. And it was like, very controversial. And, and no one else was getting rich on it. It was for file transfers. So I could, you could, it was, it was, in theory, I could say, hey, we're going to record a podcast. I'm going to send a four gig file to our editors. Like we use, you know, you can use WeTransfer, you can use Google Drive, you could use any sort of air. There's a whole bunch of different services for transferring, like files.

• 1:22:30Jordi Hays?

  Calder in the chat says six, seven mentions.

• 1:22:32John Coogan?

  Six, seven mentions. There we go. But, but MegaUpload quickly became used for piracy. So people would use it to upload software and movies.

• 1:22:45Jordi Hays?

  Like maps of the high seas?

• 1:22:47John Coogan?

  Yes, maps of the high seas. Exactly. So it was just a wild time.

• 1:22:52Jordi Hays?

  Andrew Curran says an AI-generated song has entered a Billboard radio chart for the first time. Zania Monet, created by human Talisha Jones, who used Suno.

• 1:23:02John Coogan?

  Suno.

• 1:23:02Jordi Hays?

  Also signed a $3 million record deal a few weeks ago.

• 1:23:05John Coogan?

  That's crazy. Three million.

• 1:23:07Jordi Hays?

  Imagine just sloping it up and then all of a sudden you got the $3 million record deal.

• 1:23:11John Coogan?

  Three million.

• 1:23:12Jordi Hays?

  It is funny that this is an AI song.

• 1:23:14John Coogan?

  Yeah, that's 2% of our revenue. We'd like that.

• 1:23:18Jordi Hays?

  AI song that we can't play on the show.

• 1:23:20John Coogan?

  We can't? Oh, because it's on?

• 1:23:23Jordi Hays?

  It's an actual artist made it.

• 1:23:24John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's annoying.

• 1:23:26Jordi Hays?

  What's the difference between that song and the other 103 titles that have made the chart this year alone? Zania Monet is an AI-driven artist, the product of a poet named Talisha Jones. And her song's chart arrival marks the first known instance of an AI-based act to earn a spot on a Billboard radio chart. The move also represents another step in the evolving relationship between AI tools and creators in the music industry. I would like to see an AI musician not.

• 1:23:54Jordi Hays?

  Share their real identity and and

• 1:23:58John Coogan?

  Satoshi or Banksy.

• 1:24:00Jordi Hays?

  Satoshi of of music.

• 1:24:02John Coogan?

  Music, yeah. Not a pop star, but a slop star.

• 1:24:06Jordi Hays?

  Potentially. Uh, well, we have, uh, Michael, one of the co-founders of Suno Coming.

• 1:24:12John Coogan?

  Extremely excited for that interview.

• 1:24:13Jordi Hays?

  On the show Friday. Can't wait for that.

• 1:24:15John Coogan?

  Uh, and if you want to log off, if you want to touch some grass, head over to Wander, find your happy place, book a Wander with inspiring views, hotel great amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, 24/7 concierge services, vacation home, but better.

• 1:24:27Jordi Hays?

  But better.

• 1:24:28John Coogan?

  They can't make you listen to slop if you're in your Wander.

• 1:24:31Jordi Hays?

  Gwart says, like most of you guys, I didn't get into crypto to get rich. I got into crypto because I believed in the vision of 500 different stable coins issued by 500 different centralized institutions on 500 different blockchains.

• 1:24:46John Coogan?

  It's hilarious.

• 1:24:47Jordi Hays?

  The good news is you're going to be able to swap in and out of all of them effortlessly.

• 1:24:50John Coogan?

  Yeah, I I do wonder what the stable result is, like what it, what is the final equilibrium? Is it just endless proliferation of new coins or is it a consolidation? Because, uh, there was a war for store of value, like there was like Bitcoin Classic and and, uh, and, uh, I can't even remember that other one. There was the one that was like, it's the gold to Bitcoins gold. And it wasn't, I I can't believe I I don't even remember it anymore. It wasn't Ethereum. It was a different one. And it was like, very popular for a while. And it's just completely left my brain.

• 1:25:28Jordi Hays?

  Monero?

• 1:25:28John Coogan?

  No.

• 1:25:31John Coogan?

  I'm so, I'm I'm completely lost. I don't know. Anyway, yeah, uh, there there were a whole bunch of those, you know, there there was a war. There was a war and Bitcoin won.

• 1:25:39Jordi Hays?

  Capital war.

• 1:25:40John Coogan?

  And then and then there's been a war in the other, in the other chains and the other like values. And I wonder if there will be a winner in in, uh, In stablecoin or like or the stable duopoly.

• 1:25:53Jordi Hays?

  I mean, right now, right now, there's, I would, it's effectively a duopoly between USDC and.

• 1:26:00John Coogan?

  Yeah, but there's still a lot of value in in creating new, new stablecoins.

• 1:26:05Jordi Hays?

  Let's look it up. Stablecoin market, top stablecoin tokens by market cap. You have Tether at one hundred and eighty-three billion, USDC at seventy-five billion. The next largest is USDE at nine billion. Below that is DAI. And then below that.

• 1:26:28Jordi Hays?

  Below that is World Liberty Financial.

• 1:26:30John Coogan?

  Wow, remarkable. Palmer Lucky has a post here. He says, I have this partially formed hypothesis that artist backlash against generative AI crystallized largely in response to text-driven user interfaces. The art world has come to accept tools like Photoshop and earlier photography itself that still shares the aesthetic of traditional art creation. If Midjourney, ChatGPT, DALL-E, etc. had interfaces along the lines of Nvidia Canvas from 2020, pictured below, I remember this tool. It was awesome. You could do that. You could draw whatever, whatever like outline you wanted. And it would just automatically generate it and looked great.

• 1:27:14John Coogan?

  Palmer says, it would look enough like existing tools that that the critique would look purist and elite. Art via command line, on the other hand, looks sufficiently other that you can easily berate the users as not artists. You just typed a few words. You aren't an artist has a better ring than your drawing skills rely on Photoshop somewhat more than mine. You aren't an artist. And that's really true. That's good. I do. I was thinking about like, I don't know if it's like bull case for Adobe or someone else, but.

• 1:27:50John Coogan?

  There I I was shocked. I wanted to do a I won't leak it just yet, but I wanted to make a big like we do those market maps. I wanted to make a big, a big tapestry with a lot of detail that I could zoom in and zoom out on. And I wanted to be able to to iteratively put together the collage with generative AI. I didn't want to just try and one shot the entire thing. I wanted to zoom in and say, in this corner, I want a house. And so generate a house and then I'll zoom out and then over here I want a person and over there I want a forest or whatever. And I wanted to use something that was like the like the Nvidia canvas UI or something. And and I just, I haven't found a tool.

• 1:28:32John Coogan?

  And I was wondering, I I need to go back through all of the different like effectively like drawing tools. There's been a few that have really taken off on the iPad that allow you different brushes. So you can say, I want to make my brush a rubber stamp of a tree. And then you can just kind of scrub in some forest and it will just stamp the tree again and again. And that's not generative AI, but it certainly helps you speed up drawing a forest, for example. And and I was wondering, like, how far caught up are those companies on implementing things like Nano Banana or GPT?

• 1:29:12John Coogan?

  You know, images and chat GPT, because those models are great, but I am kind of sick of just the command line because I try and one shot it. And then I'm like, oh, it's not good. I'll try again. And then it's back and forth as opposed to like actually building it up like clay where you're molding it. That's way more satisfying, in my opinion.

• 1:29:27Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the thing, the question for Adobe that I don't necessarily have an answer around yet, or even a strong take is, if Gen AI makes it a lot easier for people to be creative, like combine these two ideas and make an image of it. Does that create more people going down the pipeline to becoming power users that ultimately subscribe to various Adobe products? Right? Because historically, like the learning curve, the learning curve on a lot of those tools is very steep.

• 1:29:57John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:57Jordi Hays?

  Learning curve on just generating an image is much lower. So I don't know. I think I think that. Bearishness was on Adobe specifically was always, always overblown.

• 1:30:10John Coogan?

  Photoshop. I'm going to get to the bottom of this because I, if I am somewhat comfortable in Photoshop, mapping up, cutting and lassoing and stuff. I know they have Firefly. If they, if they had, if they had, okay, so they have choose a model and then they have one of the non-flyer fly models. What model could you use? I'm going to dig into this and understand this because potentially there's some cool stuff you could do because I really, I really want to make this like collage and I need to figure out the correct tools or I need to delegate it to someone.

• 1:30:52Jordi Hays?

  The chat has some ideas for you. There's Bitcoin Gold, which was the thing. There was also Litecoin.

• 1:30:59John Coogan?

  Litecoin is the one I was thinking of.

• 1:31:00Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 1:31:01John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:31:01Jordi Hays?

  Gustav called it.

• 1:31:02John Coogan?

  Thank you, Gustav.

• 1:31:03Jordi Hays?

  It was silver to Bitcoin's.

• 1:31:05John Coogan?

  Yeah, it was silver to Bitcoin's gold. And I don't know where the market caps are now, but just in terms of like my, my, you know, mental awareness, the Litecoin has truly fallen by the way, aside whereas it was, it was something that I was aware of during the Bitcoin rise.

• 1:31:22Jordi Hays?

  Probably invested in at one point.

• 1:31:24John Coogan?

  I don't think I did.

• 1:31:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Litecoin is down at a $6.8 billion valuation.

• 1:31:29John Coogan?

  And Bitcoin's at $2 trillion, right?

• 1:31:32Jordi Hays?

  What is it current?

• 1:31:33John Coogan?

  Two, two, two T.

• 1:31:36Jordi Hays?

  That is.

• 1:31:36John Coogan?

  Two trillion on the dot. It's at 100,000 today. Bitcoin is off its high and the markets in general are very red. The NASDAQ is down 1.88, Dow Jones down 0.64.

• 1:31:49Jordi Hays?

  Meta down 16.7%.

• 1:31:52John Coogan?

  Everything is red. Everything is red today, except for Apple, which is up. And guess what? My take today was a bull case for Apple. You're welcome, Apple. I will take full, I will take full responsibility. Maybe we close out with my take. I would love to get your feedback on what I wrote today.

• 1:32:10Jordi Hays?

  Palantir is now almost.

• 1:32:13Jordi Hays?

  Getting, it may, may get to down, being almost down 10% today, 9.35%.

• 1:32:19John Coogan?

  Bloodbath, well, not for Apple, and it feels like Apple's getting the good ending. It's not that like it's over, that not like the conclusion of the AI play, like, like, you know, Game of Thrones is played out. But it feels like we just watched the total vibe reversal on Google, and I feel like there might be one coming for Apple. And the reason is that there's this popular narrative that they missed AI, right? Like, Apple missed AI, it's so egregious.

• 1:32:45Jordi Hays?

  And German, German didn't really mince words.

• 1:32:47John Coogan?

  He said too.

• 1:32:48Jordi Hays?

  He, he said it was wildly embarrassing for them.

• 1:32:51John Coogan?

  And he said even internally, they feel that way.

• 1:32:53Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:32:53John Coogan?

  And so it's weird playing like the bull from the outside.

• 1:32:56Jordi Hays?

  They're still getting the, the do nothing win dynamic.

• 1:32:59John Coogan?

  The do nothing win dynamic, I should have put that in here, uh, cause that was the correct phrase that we should have used. But, um, but, and, and to be clear, like, I do think that they missed AI. Like, I'm frustrated with Apple Intelligence, I never use Siri, I can't even use the native dictation and speech to text reliably. Like, if I need to read a, a, a story out loud, I'll still like dump it in Gemini or ChatGPT. And like, if I want to dictate something, I'll use a different app for that. I don't just.

• 1:33:27Jordi Hays?

  Trying to get your phone to dictate an article challenge.

• 1:33:30John Coogan?

  And it's like, that is not super intelligence. Like, that's a very basic model that's been out for two years. So I, so I do think they missed it. And for, uh, you know, this phone costs almost two grand, like, it should be able to do that. Like, uh, that, that's the expectation, but, uh, there might be worse fates than missing AI. Like, there is a worse scenario, which is, imagine if they, if they were like, oh, we, we're missing AI. And instead of just being like, oh, let's do some software and do some on-device inference and do some cute little gen emojis. It's like, we need to spend $200 billion of CapEx right now to build a massive thing. We gotta build the Colossus data center, we gotta build all this crazy, crazy frontier model. And then they burn all that, and then they get a model that's not even as good as ChatGPT, they can't really integrate it.

• 1:34:13John Coogan?

  And then they run into, imagine, you know, uh, Google like dealt with the whole, like, uh, the generative image thing where the, they were the, the German soldiers were depicted with the. Wrong races, you remember this, black Nazi fiasco? Like, Google doesn't love that type of PR fiasco. They got through it. Apple is like 10 times more risk averse than Google, in my opinion. And so, Google is not like a move fast, break things company. They, but they were able to move fast enough to get through that. And now they have VO3, which like, has been amazing. And Nano Banana, which has also been amazing. But Apple really would not want that. If Gen Moji was doing crazy black Nazi stuff like that, would not be good. And so, they, they, they, you know, Apple, we, we heard this yesterday.

• 1:34:57John Coogan?

  They kicked, they kicked the tires on some multi-billion dollar AI acquisitions. But they never really got anything over the line. Now they're partnering, the news yesterday was they're partnering with Google to essentially white label Gemini into Siri. I think this is awesome. I think consumers will love this. I want exactly this. Right now, Apple's paying Google for the API calls. But I still have this question about the flow.

• 1:35:19Jordi Hays?

  Apple is an underrated threat to ChatGPT?

• 1:35:24Jordi Hays?

  Because what German said that was most notable to me is that Apple will try to pursue the agentic commerce opportunity.

• 1:35:32John Coogan?

  I didn't understand that at all, because I don't know how they would set that up. I think that, I think that it's going to offload to Gemini entirely. And so, my question and my, my take is that in the long term, what, so, so first off, yes, I do think, I do think ChatGPT usage could fall if Siri plus Gemini gets good enough, that when you want to fire off, uh, uh, you know, a GPT-5 Pro query, some of the time, you're just like, let me just have Siri, because I know Siri's going to Gemini, it's good enough, right? There's, there's that possibility. The, the flip side is, is if, if the, if the end state, if like next year, all of the models, when you ask,

• 1:36:13John Coogan?

  buy me a pair of shoes, they just go do it, because that's just a functionality in the API. Well, then Gemini is going to start making a ton of money. Like, the API is going to make money, because like, a certain percentage of the requests, sometimes it's going to be like, tell me the history of the Roman Empire. And sometimes it's going to be like, buy me a case of Diet Coke.

• 1:36:31Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but, but, but, Apple, Apple is not, Apple, Apple at the product layer, if they're using Gemini at the intelligence layer, does not mean they're doing revenue shares at the, at the model layer at all.

• 1:36:44John Coogan?

  What do you mean?

• 1:36:46Jordi Hays?

  Like if Apple has, has like their LLM experience, which is like Apple Intelligence.

• 1:36:52John Coogan?

  No, that will be Gemini. That's what they.

• 1:36:54Jordi Hays?

  No, but that's not how I read. That's not how I read Mark's thing. He said that Gemini will be below the surface, powering the product experience.

• 1:37:01John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:37:01Jordi Hays?

  Because there's a world, like you can imagine ChatGPT could use non-open AI models under the hood and still own the customer experience and own the customer relationship and monetize the queries.

• 1:37:13John Coogan?

  Sure. Yeah, yeah. Okay, okay, okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no. I, I think you're right. So basically, this is the thing that I want to dig into.

• 1:37:21Jordi Hays?

  Apple sees what they have going with the App Store.

• 1:37:23John Coogan?

  Yep, yep, yep.

• 1:37:24Jordi Hays?

  And Apple historically has not, they historically haven't been able to monetize commerce well. Like all, think about all the economic activity that's being driven by Apple products, right? How many?

• 1:37:38John Coogan?

  Yeah, unless it's digital, they're not taking a big cut.

• 1:37:41Jordi Hays?

  You probably spend, like the average Apple user is like driving so much purchase volume off of their phone, whether it's buying clothes, buying groceries, whatever.

• 1:37:50John Coogan?

  Just on Amazon on your iPhone, like the iOS sales on Amazon of like paper towels.

• 1:37:55Jordi Hays?

  That was off limits for App Store, you know, revenue share because it was real world products being sold and traded. And so I think they look at this and they're like, hey, this, this could be a, you know, trillion dollar opportunity for,

• 1:38:10John Coogan?

  It's going to be really hard.

• 1:38:11Jordi Hays?

  And it's going to be super, super competitive. They're going to be competing with Google, OpenAI, you know, a bunch of other companies, but

• 1:38:19Jordi Hays?

  I just felt this was this.

• 1:38:21John Coogan?

  I don't know. I, I think if it happens in the LLM, like in the, in the LLM, like for loop, basically, like if I go to Siri and I say, order me a case of Diet Coke and it. Goes to Gemini and says, the prompt is, order John a case of Diet Coke. It's pretty hard for Apple to say like, and we want the revenue. Like, it's like, Google did the work. So they are gonna get the commission. It's the same thing as like, wouldn't it be nice if if Apple was like, oh, yeah, like, you know, you can use Google on your, on your phone. But like, if you click an ad, like, we're gonna take the cut. Like, no, that's not how it works.

• 1:39:03Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but if they surf, if they're surfacing the ad.

• 1:39:07John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:39:08Jordi Hays?

  At the app layer.

• 1:39:09John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:39:09Jordi Hays?

  For Apple.

• 1:39:10John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:39:11Jordi Hays?

  Then Apple can decide what ad network do we use? Do we use a native ad network that we're building, similar to the App Store? Do we?

• 1:39:18John Coogan?

  I don't, no, no, no. So, so, so what I, what I'm proposing is, I mean, yes, you could build it either way. And this is obviously going to be a point of debate and a point of negotiation. But there is a world where, where you go to Siri, you say, I order me a case of Diet Coke. It goes to Gemini for, with that prompt. And Google says, we're using Google Checkout and we'll have it delivered to your thing. We'll book your, and we'll book your credit card.

• 1:39:41Jordi Hays?

  Does that sound, does that sound like Apple?

• 1:39:44John Coogan?

  Apple would definitely fight that off because.

• 1:39:47Jordi Hays?

  And they, and they're doing, they, they ran a bake off with a bunch of different intelligence providers.

• 1:39:51John Coogan?

  Yep, I'm just saying.

• 1:39:52Jordi Hays?

  Think that that was something that would be top of the list in terms of, hey, we want to use you for search and.

• 1:39:58John Coogan?

  Knowledge retrieval for sure.

• 1:39:59Jordi Hays?

  Knowledge retrieval.

• 1:40:00John Coogan?

  And that's why Apple's paying Google. But, but if, if, like, play this out in a year.

• 1:40:07Jordi Hays?

  But it would be flipped if, if, if, if.

• 1:40:10John Coogan?

  What if Google is like, we can order you a case of Diet Coke?

• 1:40:13Jordi Hays?

  If Google knew they would monetize, they could monetize this.

• 1:40:15John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:40:16Jordi Hays?

  They would be like, you can have it for free.

• 1:40:18John Coogan?

  Totally. And I think it flips at some point.

• 1:40:20Jordi Hays?

  Well, well, okay. So you think it flips at some point?

• 1:40:22John Coogan?

  I think it flips at some point.

• 1:40:23Jordi Hays?

  Within the grounds of the current agreement, I believe that Apple will want to own any sort of like payments, own.

• 1:40:31John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:40:31Jordi Hays?

  Capture at least.

• 1:40:33John Coogan?

  That's certainly their leverage, but there is totally a world where where Gemini learns my home address through Siri, learns my credit card number through Siri.

• 1:40:43Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but I mean, Apple, Apple is literally the final boss of of like.

• 1:40:47John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:40:48Jordi Hays?

  Disintermediating all business.

• 1:40:49John Coogan?

  I'm not, I'm not saying that they won't have leverage in the negotiation, but I, but I am saying that like, like, Google is more set up to actually build the product that delivers the.

• 1:41:00Jordi Hays?

  I totally agree.

• 1:41:02John Coogan?

  And so.

• 1:41:02Jordi Hays?

  But I think.

• 1:41:03John Coogan?

  They're gonna be in the same situation.

• 1:41:04Jordi Hays?

  The middle ground, to me, would more likely be like a rev share.

• 1:41:07John Coogan?

  That's what, yeah, no, that's exactly what I'm.

• 1:41:08Jordi Hays?

  And that's what's happening with Google Search.

• 1:41:10John Coogan?

  But I'm saying, yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.

• 1:41:12Jordi Hays?

  But, but.

• 1:41:12John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 1:41:13Jordi Hays?

  Apple has built a taxation engine at the App Store. They've already built an ad network. And so I think internally, they would probably like all the margin.

• 1:41:23John Coogan?

  But, I mean, you could use the exact same logic to like, they should build a search engine then, and then take all that margin.

• 1:41:28Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but it was also much harder. It was much harder to build like a search experience until.

• 1:41:33John Coogan?

  I don't, I don't think they're gonna, I don't think they're gonna do it. I think they're gonna, I think that they're gonna say, hey, look, right now, right now, LLM search queries cost a dollar every time you fire them off. So we're gonna pay you a billion dollars for like a million of them or whatever. It's not a dollar each, but like, you know, a million, a million prompts is a couple bucks or whatever, whatever, whatever the math is. Over time, it's gonna be like, no, every prompt generates money. So you want people prompting your system because you make money every time people prompt it.

• 1:42:04Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:42:04John Coogan?

  And, and, and, and you monetize through advertising. And so at that point, there's gonna be another bake off, but the bake off is gonna be who's gonna pay Apple the most money.

• 1:42:13Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:42:14John Coogan?

  Anyway, that was, that was a big part of the debate. The, the last question I had was like, who, how do you feel if you're Tim Cook right now? You have to be pretty happy, was my take. You don't get, you didn't get over your skis chasing the AI boom. You didn't invest in a bunch of infrastructure. You didn't acquire a company for 20 billion that you didn't need to. Even though AI features are super nifty, lacking them clearly doesn't cause people to switch phones. iMessage is such an insanely locked in network effect. Everyone still went out and bought the 17 Pro. More importantly, Apple got through a massive existential crisis during Liberation Day and the ensuing trade war with China. Playing the political game of Thrones while being a supply chain mastermind is more than enough

• 1:42:56John Coogan?

  to propel Apple to a $4 trillion valuation and earn Tim Cook a major pat on the back. And so I think, I think

• 1:43:03Jordi Hays?

  And we'll get his comp. His comp should go up back to 100 at least.

• 1:43:07John Coogan?

  At least, at least, at least let's get him in the nine-figure club. It's, uh, it's really, really depressing that he hasn't been there.

• 1:43:13Jordi Hays?

  But Let's get to this post by Jason Schuman. He was highlighting ServiceTitan at $9 billion market cap on 866 million of revenue. Comparing that to Harvey, which is $8 billion valuation on somewhere around 100 million of ARR. I think they're, I think they're quite a bit beyond that at this point. But Jason says, at this point, you have to believe that we're moving from a world of niche vertical SaaS to the next industrial revolution. I think that's exactly what the VCs that are backing Harvey at 8 billion believe, right? They believe they're eating, this is a labor displacement, labor replacement opportunity.

• 1:43:55Jordi Hays?

  And so they're, they're underwriting, underwriting Harvey against the overall revenue of, of law firms globally and, and can they capture a percentage of that? You would not be able to underwrite Harvey like this against like the existing legal AI market. And so, yeah, this is a bet that, uh, this is, this is a bet on, uh, labor, labor displacement.

• 1:44:23John Coogan?

  Yeah, I, I don't know. I mean, it is just like, it is just a new market, like in some ways, like ServiceTitan is a, is a, I mean, not to boil it down too much, but it's like customer relationship management software for tradespeople with applications focused on sales, customer service, marketing automation. So it is in like a niche of a niche that's big and they make a ton of money. But it's, it's somewhat niched down, which is the, the point about the niche vertical SaaS.

• 1:44:55John Coogan?

  Harvey, at least right now, it feels like is in a fairly new and broader niche. Like it's not, it's not, uh, It's like the legal market, it's had, it's had niche vertical SaaS, but um

• 1:45:11John Coogan?

  something that's like pretty dramatically accelerated. Like it's, it feels like, it feels like the returns to the AI-ification of your vertical SaaS product are just higher in legal than in, in CRM for tradespeople.

• 1:45:28Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:45:28John Coogan?

  I would think. So.

• 1:45:29Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Apparently the 200 largest law firms in the world annually provide 130 billion of legal services. So that's the top 200. Uh, so Harvey's already sitting at, you know, basically their market cap at like 6% of the, of the uh, global annual spend.

• 1:45:49John Coogan?

  Also, just the, I mean, the growth rates are like wildly different. So price to earnings growth, if you do, if you just do PEG, like you're going to get to a wildly different number. Um, but uh,

• 1:46:01John Coogan?

  I don't know. Uh, we've seen a bunch of examples of like, you know, the, the, the lawyers genuinely like expressing that they are ready to pay for AI in a serious way.

• 1:46:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Well, I have the right post to end it on.

• 1:46:18John Coogan?

  Do it.

• 1:46:19Jordi Hays?

  A rare Pagani Zonda R, one of only 15 ever built, has found a new life, not on the racetrack, but as a centerpiece inside a luxury oceanfront condo valued at over one and a half million. This Italian hypercar has been suspended on custom engineered steel beams, serving as a breathtaking room divider between the master suite and living area. The design transforms what was once a track exclusive masterpiece into a sculptural focal point. Celebration of speed, art and architecture.

• 1:46:50John Coogan?

  This is so crazy.

• 1:46:52Jordi Hays?

  Coded, unfortunately, uh, writing, but uh, yeah, this is absolutely insane. I had seen some of the pictures of it. Um, uh, I'd seen some of the pictures of it being like lifted up into the room.

• 1:47:03John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:47:04Jordi Hays?

  Uh, it's kind of cool to, to be able to like walk around the car and see, see the bottom of it, although we can't see the pictures of it here.

• 1:47:10John Coogan?

  On the track.

• 1:47:11Jordi Hays?

  Keep it on the track.

• 1:47:12John Coogan?

  Out of there. I, I, this is disrespectful to my culture as a track guy, as someone whose entire personality is about tracking cars now that I went once. Uh, this is, uh, this is extremely disrespectful. Take it out of the.

• 1:47:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, it really is.

• 1:47:26John Coogan?

  Give it to a track.

• 1:47:27Jordi Hays?

  Could you not, could you not?

• 1:47:28John Coogan?

  Give it to a track junkie in need. Give it to a track junkie in need.

• 1:47:32Jordi Hays?

  Go on to Hollywood and say, for a hundred thousand dollars, I want you to make a model of my car. I'm going to keep my car at the track, but I want to have it in my living room.

• 1:47:40John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:47:41Jordi Hays?

  Uh, so yeah, I'm a little bit.

• 1:47:42John Coogan?

  Also, like, what is going on? Like, why is this in a condo? Like, like, if you have 1.5 million dollars to spend on, like, a centerpiece, like, get a house.

• 1:47:53Jordi Hays?

  Ever heard of a penthouse, John?

• 1:47:55John Coogan?

  Ever.

• 1:47:56Jordi Hays?

  Ever heard of a Miami penthouse?

• 1:47:57John Coogan?

  It says condo. Doesn't say penthouse.

• 1:47:59Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I mean, a condo.

• 1:48:00John Coogan?

  It doesn't say, oh, they own the whole building.

• 1:48:03Jordi Hays?

  A condo can be a penthouse.

• 1:48:03John Coogan?

  It says they got a condo. They got, they got a little studio and they put a 1.5. I mean, honestly, respect for going crazy with the prioritization. You're just like, yeah, my, my rent's 4K a month, and I decided to put a 1.5 million dollar car in my, in my 4K a month, uh, studio apartment.

• 1:48:19Jordi Hays?

  You want to do what?

• 1:48:21John Coogan?

  Uh, yeah. Uh, tenant upgrades. I don't know. Uh, let us know in the comments how, what you would do if, if you had a Pagani Zonda R, one of 15 ever built. I say, keep it on the track.

• 1:48:35Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, personally, I would have at least kept it flat so you could use it as a, as a call booth.

• 1:48:40John Coogan?

  Phone booth, for sure.

• 1:48:41Jordi Hays?

  If you needed to jump on a Zoom and it was kind of loud.

• 1:48:43John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:48:44Jordi Hays?

  You just jump in there, so.

• 1:48:45John Coogan?

  Anyway, thank you for watching the show. Thank you for listening. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

• 1:48:51Jordi Hays?

  We will be back in the Ultra Dome.

• 1:48:53John Coogan?

  Back in the Ultra Dome in Los Angeles. We'll see you then. Goodbye.

• 1:48:57Jordi Hays?

  Thank you to Ben.

• 1:48:58John Coogan?

  Bye.

• 1:48:58Jordi Hays?

  Cheers.