In-Car Surveillance, Goblin-Mode, Jon Gray from Blackstone Joins | Colleen Aubrey, Anthony Liguori, Colin Zima, Alex Epstein, Shira Lazar, Anshul Gupta, Apurva Shrivastava, Bubble Boi

(00:14) - In-Car Surveillance (12:22) - Goblin-Mode (14:48) - Jon Gray, President and COO of Blackstone, joined the firm in 1992 and has been instrumental in its growth to managing over $1.3 trillion in assets. In the conversation, he reflects on Blackstone's evolution from a small advisory business to a global investment powerhouse, emphasizing the firm's entrepreneurial spirit and commitment to delivering premium returns. Gray also discusses the impact of artificial intelligence on various industries, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities it presents for investors. (36:18) - Colleen Aubrey, Senior Vice President of Applied AI Solutions at AWS, has been with Amazon for over 20 years, leading teams in advertising and now focusing on AI-driven applications. She discusses the launch of Amazon Connect Decisions and Amazon Connect Talent, emphasizing the transformative potential of AI agents as teammates that can fundamentally change business operations. Aubrey highlights the importance of trustworthiness and observability in AI agents, ensuring they can explain their actions and reasoning, thereby fostering confidence and enabling effective collaboration within organizations. (44:02) - Anthony Liguori discusses the evolution of AI models from simple token prediction to advanced agentic systems, emphasizing the integration of tools and memory to enhance capabilities. He introduces Amazon Bedrock Managed Agents, highlighting its three components: runtime definitions for agents, dedicated compute environments with unique identities for governance, and an inference API compatible with existing applications. Liguori also shares his personal experience, noting that these advancements have significantly increased his productivity and enjoyment in coding. (51:57) - Colin Zima, CEO of Omni Analytics, discusses his company's mission to build a comprehensive data platform that integrates AI, spreadsheets, and dashboards atop a semantic layer, ensuring reliable AI operations. He highlights the uniqueness of each business's semantic layer and the importance of bridging traditional data structures with modern AI capabilities. Zima also addresses the evolving landscape of data infrastructure, emphasizing the increased portability of data systems and the need for pragmatic, cost-effective solutions in analytics. (01:00:47) - Alex Epstein, author of *Fossil Future*, is a philosopher and energy expert who advocates for the continued use of fossil fuels to promote human flourishing. In the conversation, he discusses the critical importance of maintaining open access to the Strait of Hormuz for global energy stability, the role of OPEC and its member countries in regulating oil supply and prices, and the potential of solar energy innovations, such as space-based solar power, while emphasizing the current limitations and challenges associated with these technologies. (01:25:34) - Shira Lazar is a Canadian television personality, actress, writer, and video blogger, best known as the creator and host of "What's Trending," a pioneering digital news brand. In the conversation, she discusses her extensive experience in the digital media and creator economy, highlighting the evolution of live streaming since launching "What's Trending" in 2011. She also explores the current landscape of the creator economy, noting opportunities for both large-scale influencers and niche creators, while emphasizing the challenges faced by mid-level creators in monetizing their content. (01:41:09) - Anshul Gupta, co-founder of Actively, discusses how their platform enhances revenue team productivity by deploying per-account agents that proactively guide and assist sales representatives throughout the customer lifecycle. These agents integrate data from various sources, including product analytics and communication tools, to provide comprehensive context and actionable insights, enabling more efficient and effective sales processes. Gupta also highlights the potential for organizational changes, such as adjusting management structures and team ratios, as companies realize efficiency gains from implementing these agents. (01:47:21) - Apurva Shrivastava, co-founder and CEO of Avoca, discusses how his company builds AI agents for physical service businesses, particularly home services, to handle tasks like answering calls and booking jobs. He explains that both he and his co-founder, Tyson, grew up assisting their mothers' service businesses, which inspired them to create solutions that address common industry challenges. Apurva highlights the significant advancements in AI voice models, noting that while they can now engage in conversations indistinguishable from humans for the first 30 seconds to a minute, there is still progress to be made for longer interactions. (01:53:59) - Bubble Boi, a semiconductor industry expert, discusses the advantages of maintaining a traditional job to stay connected with engineering challenges, the early stages of the AI investment cycle with significant capital expenditures expected over the next three years, and the impact of large language models on market dynamics, noting that financial institutions are rapidly adopting these technologies for research. Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01John Coogan?

  Today's Tuesday, April 28th, 2026. We are live from the TVB, on the Temple of Technology, the Fortune Finance. We got a quick show because John Gray from Blackstone is joining in 20 minutes. We're gonna run through a bunch of stuff. I wrote about this in-car surveillance thing. It's going viral. It's sort of fake news. We got it sort of truth zone it, but also it's coming and it might not matter because if you get in a robotaxi, there's definitely gonna be a camera on you. But the fear is centered around this idea that there will be a requirement from the federal government that every new car sold in the United States will be required by law to have technology, uh-oh, that puts constant surveillance on the driver. And this is happening sooner than

• 0:46John Coogan?

  you think by 2027. That's just 12 months away. AI in your car will determine if you're sober and fit to drive, automatically turning off the vehicle.

• 0:57Jordi Hays?

  It's almost May, by the way.

• 0:59John Coogan?

  I know. We're what, 8 months away, I guess, from 2027? This is the real AI 2027 problem. This is, this is a big deal.

• 1:07Jordi Hays?

  We are having audio issues. It's most likely a nation-state.

• 1:13John Coogan?

  Potentially.

• 1:14Jordi Hays?

  It's very possible we are under attack, but we are working on it.

• 1:16John Coogan?

  It's like watching a dubbed foreign film. Well, maybe we can play this video of what happened the last time America tried to pull back on, on driving a car while intoxicated, and some of the, some of the response, some of the backlash from the...

• 1:38Speaker 02

  Any attempt to restrict drinking and driving here is viewed...

• 1:40John Coogan?

  Can we pull this up? Okay. We're working on it. Anyway.

• 1:44Jordi Hays?

  Production team is being humbled this morning.

• 1:45John Coogan?

  Humbled. Anyway, let me read through some of my take and then we'll play that funny video. So, uh, sounds scary. Okay, John actually says, "Audio sounds good to me for what it's worth." Let's go. Let's see. How about this? Does this sound okay? Does this sound okay? Does this sound okay? Does this sound okay? Hopefully it all sounds good. Yeah, let's play this video.

• 2:08Speaker 02

  Drinking and driving here is viewed by some as downright undemocratic.

• 2:12Speaker 03

  It's kinda getting common this one. A fella can't put in a hard day's work, put in 11, 12 hours a day, and then get in your truck and at least drink one or two beers.

• 2:20Speaker 04

  They're making it laws where you can't drink when you want to. You have to wear a seatbelt when you're driving. Pretty soon we're gonna be communist country. Communist country.

• 2:33Jordi Hays?

  What, what, when was that? Was that the?

• 2:35John Coogan?

  Apparently that's real. I, I always, I've seen that video before. I always thought it was fake. I didn't realize that that was real. That feels like eighties, seventies, something like that. Eighties, okay. Well, uh, there was backlash then and there's backlash now. Uh, some of it's a little bit overblown. Uh, this sounds very scary, you know, constant surveillance. The real, the real crazy version is, uh, camera that's watching you at all times. The government, the police and the automaker can just turn off your car whenever they want. That sounds bad. What's actually being proposed? What's actually on the timetable? So, uh, the rationale for this is good and I, I think most people would agree that, that it is a reasonable,

• 3:16John Coogan?

  uh, thing to do to try and curb, uh, alcohol-related, uh, vehicle accidents, drunk driving. Uh, there's more than 10,000 alcohol-related deaths each year on US roads. That's a ton. Anything we can do to stop that, reduce that, totally worth working on, totally worth pursuing as long as it doesn't violate a whole bunch of other liberties or create more problems than it solves, right? We want net positive impact here. Technology is getting better at detecting intoxication and it's getting a lot cheaper. So why not just ship drunk driver detection, uh, detect, uh, drunk driver detection system with every car from the factory? That's the proposal. Uh, there are a bunch of potential downsides that we can get into, but it's important to get, set the facts straight about, set the facts straight about where we actually stand today.

• 4:00John Coogan?

  So the core concept here is generally correct. Congress did pass a mandate directing the NHTSA to create a standard for advanced drunk driving prevention technology in new passenger vehicles. Now, the 2027 date that people are citing, that's not a hard deadline. Um, the law was passed back in 2024 and in the actual law, it basically allowed for delays. So they said, you, the NHTSA will only issue a binding mandate requiring automakers to actually roll out this tech when the tech is ready and the NHTSA currently says that the technology is not ready. So in theory, the tech feels close, but the scale of the problem is so big, you can see why there's a delay here. Alcohol detection systems exist and are typically deployed

• 4:45John Coogan?

  for drivers with DUIs. You're familiar with blowing in the tube, probably, uh, hopefully not personally. But the problem is that those little hoses that you blow into, those are active systems. They require you to actually sit there and do that for a minute. The government doesn't want that. That's not what the proposal is.

• 5:00Jordi Hays?

  They want passive.

• 5:01John Coogan?

  They want passive, which means breath sensing. So there's just like smell-a-vision, basically. If it smells alcohol, it doesn't turn on the car. The other one is fingerprint reading. So you put your finger on the start button and it scans into your finger and sees how many alcohol particles are inside, I guess. That sounds sci-fi, but we're close, I guess. There's a couple other ways you can solve that. And then camera system. Just look at the driver. If they look drunk, then don't turn on the car. So all of these seem like they could be close to being roughly accurate right now. Like, you can imagine an AI startup or a university lab putting something together at a hackathon that's 90% of the way there.

• 5:43John Coogan?

  Maybe 99% of the way there. Maybe even 99.9% of the way there. But the problem is that Americans drive a lot. The rough estimate is that there are almost a quarter trillion driving trips per year in America. It's basically every American, all 350 million of them, basically, taking an average of two trips every single day of the year. So 224 billion trips a year is what the rough back of the envelope I did was. And what that means in practice is that if this system is 99.9% accurate, you're still looking at tens of millions of incorrect results every year. And the fact that probably 99.9% of these trips are not inebriated,

• 6:28John Coogan?

  like drunk driving is not 50% of trips. It's not 1% of trips. It's a very small amount.

• 6:33Jordi Hays?

  Think about how people would abuse this new system. It'd be like students being like, "Sorry, I couldn't make it to the exam."

• 6:38John Coogan?

  Exactly. "Dog ate my lunch. My car wouldn't start because of a false positive on this." And so even if you're at 99%, you're still looking at tens of millions of incorrect results. The vast majority of those are going to be people who are sober. The, you know, somebody wants to get in their car for their morning commute. They're a little sleepy, or they wore some cologne that triggered some sensor. System flags them as intoxicated and prevents them from starting their car. And it's infuriating. The tech will probably get there with enough time and effort. So it's worth looking into who supports this. And opposes it. The mandate was actually bipartisan, but there's starting to be a backlash from libertarian conservatives who are worried about Orwellian government controls. There's an idea that there will be a remote kill switch, which leads to a bunch of dystopian

• 7:21John Coogan?

  possibilities. That is not in the current provision. That's not what's actually being proposed right now. But, you know, it's possible that at the end, that the end result of this process of back and forth, you do wind up with that exact capability. And so people are worried about the system going off while you're driving at speed on the, on the roads and then the car just shuts off and you get in a crash and that's like actually more dangerous than potentially the alternative. And so the middle ground seems to be what's called pre-drive lockout.

• 7:49Jordi Hays?

  We need a tinfoil expert. Cause haven't the tinfoil enthusiasts have been saying that the sort of remote.

• 7:57John Coogan?

  Are you using tinfoil enthusiasts to mean conspiracy theorists? I've never heard that before.

• 8:04Jordi Hays?

  That's a, that's a new one.

• 8:06John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 8:06Jordi Hays?

  So tinfoil enthusiasts.

• 8:08John Coogan?

  Yes. Will definitely.

• 8:09Jordi Hays?

  Well, have been making, have been, have been claiming.

• 8:12John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 8:12Jordi Hays?

  That the remote shut off button has existed forever.

• 8:15John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah. Since the, since the.

• 8:18Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. So when, when, when some sort of like, you know, witness or, or something like that just gets in a very inconveniently timed, high-speed wreck. That is.

• 8:29John Coogan?

  That's shut down. Oh, okay. I was.

• 8:31Jordi Hays?

  Theorize.

• 8:32John Coogan?

  Conspiracy theory. It's interesting though. But yeah. So, I mean, the current, the current like consensus is around maybe pre-drive lockout being the more moderate solution than actually shutting the car off once it's driving. Still incredibly, incredibly inconvenient if there's false positives. And then you also do still run into some potential negatives outcomes where you go to the beach, you have a couple of glasses of wine, you're not planning on leaving, but then the tsunami warning goes off. You need to get back in your car and your car says, no, like, I don't care that there's a tsunami.

• 9:01Jordi Hays?

  Oh.

• 9:01John Coogan?

  I don't care that there's a tsunami. You have had two glasses of wine. You're at point oh eight. You can't drive right now. And you need to tell the car, well, in this case, I, I'm okay with driving drunk because the tsunami is coming and I'm at the beach and I had a couple of glasses of wine. And the car won't be able to, you know, potentially, you know, deal with that nuance, right?

• 9:21Jordi Hays?

  Right.

• 9:21John Coogan?

  And there's a whole bunch of other, yeah. And there's a whole bunch of other scenarios that could potentially play out where the.

• 9:29John Coogan?

  Just judiciousness is is difficult, but potentially unlocked, you know, AI agents. I don't know, you know, you ask these models, what would they do in some certain scenario? Maybe there's a solution.

• 9:39Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I think there's a much, much stronger argument for rolling this out as soon as the average vehicle.

• 9:46John Coogan?

  Is just full self-driving.

• 9:47Jordi Hays?

  Has has full self-driving capability.

• 9:50John Coogan?

  But then, but then you don't need it because you can be as drunk as you want.

• 9:53Jordi Hays?

  No, I still, I still think there's going to be this big window where, where, where you're not going to be able to.

• 9:59John Coogan?

  So, so maybe.

• 10:00Jordi Hays?

  Specifically because if you need, I don't know, as long as somebody, as long as somebody needs to sit in the front seat of their car.

• 10:07John Coogan?

  Sure, sure, sure.

• 10:08Jordi Hays?

  And potentially take over on in any type of situation.

• 10:12John Coogan?

  I like the idea of level four self-driving. You get in the car, there's one button you push to say, hey, just put it in self-driving mode. I've had a couple of drinks and don't let me take the wheel.

• 10:23Jordi Hays?

  No matter how hard I try to negotiate.

• 10:26John Coogan?

  It's all disabled. It's just play, play mobile level. And then, but then, but then there's a second button and for that you have to do a full blood transfusion. They take, they centrifuge your blood and make sure that you have the purest blood possible to take, to take the wheel and be able to actually drive the vehicle.

• 10:44Jordi Hays?

  Maybe something there.

• 10:45John Coogan?

  I did have, I did have a take on this though, which is that Doug Jamero, friend of the show, founder of cardsandbids.com, has always talked about the eras of cars, you know, the air-cooled Porsches, then you have the, the fully manual, no, no, no electronic systems, no stability control, no traction control, those types of cars. Then you get into the, the manual gearboxes, the no turbos, no hybrid systems. And then the modern supercar era is just a bonus if it's not a full electric car. It's like, you know, it's going to be a hybrid, but is it, is it, is it, at least there's an engine of some sort. And that's what car collectors are sort of marking these moments where it's like, it's the last manual.

• 11:27John Coogan?

  It's the last non, you know, non-hybrid supercar made by Ferrari or something like that.

• 11:33Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 11:33John Coogan?

  And there's going to be a world where you're like, oh, that was the last one that didn't have the camera that. Looked at you 24/7 or whatever. And I think it creates this like new class of like vintage cars.

• 11:43Jordi Hays?

  Investment, investment grade.

• 11:44John Coogan?

  I don't know. Maybe not investment grade, but certainly something that people, I mean, you can already see people reacting to this, even though the post is like a little bit overhyped. You can already see people reacting to it being like, I gotta buy a 2026 and hold on to it forever and keep it in great condition because I don't want that. But anyway, there's been a pushback on this stuff for a long time. Tyler, do you have anything on cars? Are you old enough to drive?

• 12:07Jordi Hays?

  I was just thinking like, what do you think the premium is for a car that you can still like drunk driving?

• 12:11John Coogan?

  I think, I think your car is, is, is gonna go through the roof.

• 12:14Jordi Hays?

  This is not, this is not, this is not even worth joking about.

• 12:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 12:19John Coogan?

  Anyway.

• 12:19Jordi Hays?

  Bad joke. Move on.

• 12:20John Coogan?

  Moving on, what else is going on? Oh, we gotta talk about the GPT 5.5 prompt for Codex, which seems to have a duplicated line trying to get it to not talk about creatures. Tyler, you dug into this. What is actually going on?

• 12:37Speaker 05

  Yeah, so it just seems like there's, there was some like emergent property of the new model where it always tries to talk about like kind of creatures and goblins.

• 12:47Jordi Hays?

  Raccoons.

• 12:48Speaker 05

  Yeah, ogres are in there.

• 12:48Jordi Hays?

  Trolls, ogres, pigeons.

• 12:51John Coogan?

  And so in.

• 12:52Speaker 05

  They had to counteract this, right? You have to put in the system prompt to tell it not to do this.

• 12:56John Coogan?

  Where, where is this creatures? Do not, do not talk about, never talk about goblins, gremlins, raccoons, trolls, ogres, pigeons, or other animals or creatures unless it is absolutely and unambiguously relevant to the user's query. This reminds me of those old image prompts where like there would be a negative prompt that specifically said like, do not put six fingers on the human's hand. But what a, what a weird one and what an odd, what an odd line to throw into a coding agent. Like, do we know anything else about this if people dug into like, what is actually going on here?

• 13:35Speaker 05

  I mean, it might not be just the coding agent.

• 13:37Jordi Hays?

  I don't.

• 13:37Speaker 05

  It's probably just the model in general.

• 13:38Jordi Hays?

  It's the, it's the, it's the model itself.

• 13:41John Coogan?

  Goblin mode.

• 13:42Jordi Hays?

  The model itself yearns to discuss creatures, goblins, raccoons. It is an emergent property of superintelligence.

• 13:52John Coogan?

  Uh, Vi says, they had to put this in due to my effect on the company. Goblins, creatures sort of followed me in through the front door when I joined and we are only just now starting to understand the downstream effects of their presence. And Tebow says, never talk about goblins, gremlins, raccoons, trolls, ogres, pigeons, or other animals or creatures unless it's absolutely.

• 14:13Jordi Hays?

  There's so many.

• 14:14John Coogan?

  If you know, you know.

• 14:16Jordi Hays?

  So, uh, somebody says, my, my 5.5 Kodak, Kodak said goblin with a flashlight when referring to a bug fix yesterday.

• 14:27John Coogan?

  What? Uh, there's a billion goblins inside your model weights. You just have to get them out, says Tyler Cosgrove. Anyway, we can dig more into that. There's a whole bunch more OpenAI news that we can go in to throughout the show today, but we are very fortunate to be joined by John Gray. He's the president and CEO, COO of Blackstone. And he's in the waiting room and we will bring him into the TVP and Ultra Dome. John, how are you doing? Welcome to the show.

• 14:53Speaker 06

  Great to be with you guys. I've never had a preamble on ogres and goblins. Very excited.

• 14:58John Coogan?

  We are in, we are in odd territory, odd times with the AI boom. I'm sure we'll talk about all sorts of, uh, different elements of it, different machinations in the global economy. Uh, but I'd love to start with, uh, a little bit of background on you. I know you've been with Blackstone for a long time. I'm fascinated by the decision to join, what the firm was like when you joined and how it's evolved over your tenure.

• 15:24Speaker 06

  Well, I came here in 1992, straight out of college, straight out of Penn. Of my success.

• 15:33Speaker 06

  My senior year in college, I met a young woman in romantic poetry class. And a month later, I got a job. And now, thirty-four and a half years later, same woman, same firm. So, very simple, very boring. And when I joined this place, it was small. We had seventy-five people. We had a small M&A advisory business. And then we had an investment business with seven-hundred-and-fifty-million dollars of capital. And it was exciting because we were doing the private equity business and investing. And you flash ahead to today, and we've got a firm that manages over one-point-three-trillion dollars. And it's been a remarkable life. Exactly.

• 16:16Speaker 06

  It would be hard to imagine, because when we started at the firm, when you'd go to meetings, you'd have to tell people what Blackstone is and what we do. And that's obviously changed quite a bit. And credit to the founders, Pete Peterson, Steve Schwarzman, who continues to drive things today. They just had a vision that they could do more. And the alternatives business, private markets, was a tiny industry. And it started in private equity. But Steve in particular had this idea that we could do other things. So, we went into real estate, where I moved after about a year at the firm. We expanded into hedge funds, ultimately into credit, and later on into infrastructure

• 16:56Speaker 06

  and growth equity, to the point now where we have this massive scale and can give almost any sort of capital solution in the private markets. And I'd say the key thing that's really changed is, what was a very much of a niche business, serving a small number of endowments and pension funds, and just doing a high-octane investing in private markets, private equity, real estate, private equity, has evolved today to serving insurance companies and individual investors and sovereign wealth and all different people around the world, and doing things at high-returning strategies and low-returning strategies all around the globe. So, but the most exciting thing I'd say is that the firm has stayed remarkably constant.

• 17:42Speaker 06

  The commitment to excellence around the place, the drive, the entrepreneurial spirit, that's what has allowed it to grow. And it still feels like, even at this scale, like we're running a small business, which is not what maybe your viewers would expect. But we still have tons of pride of ownership, doing the right thing for our customers. And we know at the end of the day, the only thing that ultimately matters is that we deliver great performance. If we don't deliver a premium to our clients, they're not going to come back. And so everything's focused around that and obviously operate with integrity as well.

• 18:16John Coogan?

  Yeah, I want to talk about the entrepreneurial DNA of the firm. It feels like the partnership is extremely entrepreneurial. That's definitely a core value. As Blackstone's grown from one strategy to 80 strategies, 80-plus strategies, I think, what is the process for standing up a new strategy? How organic is that? We've seen venture capital firms go from they were doing Series As, now they're doing growth equities. They just sort of like bleed into the other strategy. And I'm wondering if there's a more deliberate process where there's someone on the team who's going out and exploring, finding a new opportunity? Or you notice that, hey, we're doing a type of, we're engaged in a strategy and we actually need to sort of split this off and it's like sell division?

• 18:59Speaker 06

  I think it's all of the above. There is no master plan, but somebody comes along to us. In fact, yesterday we got a call about an opportunity in an area that's adjacent to something we do, where we don't have a focus. It was somebody who wants to give us a serious amount of capital and said, hey, would you be willing to do a business? So in that case, it came from sort of reverse solicitation. Obviously, when we were a smaller firm, you didn't get a lot of those. But I would say it was always this sort of basic idea of adjacency, where we were doing something, you know, you're doing private equity, you're doing real estate and infrastructure sits right in between those two. Or you're doing, you know, higher risk debt capital,

• 19:44Speaker 06

  but maybe we can move a little more senior and then ultimately you move to very senior capital. And the same thing in real estate, opportunistic, then more stabilized, then debt. And I think the key is, can you use the intellectual capital? That's really one of the great assets. It's the people here and all the insights. And if you think about investing as pattern recognition, which is you connect dots. If you have a broader platform. And you can connect a bunch of dots, then you can be better at these adjacent things. And you end up serving the same customers who would prefer you to show up and say, oh, you can do private equity really well, and you can do real estate, and you can do credit.

• 20:26Speaker 06

  I'd love to work with you. We really trust your organization. But the key is, there's got to be a market opportunity. You've got to be able to deliver that return, and then you've got to have the people to do it right. Because the worst thing is to say, oh, there's a great opportunity. I can raise money for SPAC, right? And then you raise tons of money, and you end up not delivering for the customers. So the standard has to be, can we deliver a premium return? Do we have the expertise, and do we have the people to do it?

• 20:55John Coogan?

  Yeah. I'm sure we're going to talk about artificial intelligence, but is there a second macro trend that you have locked on to that is an overarching thesis? I mean, we've been following the peptide boom and what's going on in GLP-1s. There are big stories in financial markets broadly.

• 21:15Jordi Hays?

  Or manufacturing is another one. There's a lot of interesting...

• 21:18John Coogan?

  And I'm just wondering if there's anything else that's actually...

• 21:21Speaker 06

  Yeah, I'd give you a bunch of them. Yeah, I mean, and we spend a lot of time trying to be thematic. You know, one of the things I've learned over time as investors is you're so focused on your model. What is Page 52 of the model, this assumption, whatever. But when you look back over time, I often say it's the first paragraph that matters. What's the basic business, the industry you're going after? Definitely matters who your management team is, but doing it in the right...

• 21:49Jordi Hays?

  But the theme, right?

• 21:50Speaker 06

  The theme. The right neighborhood makes all the difference. I don't care if you're the greatest investor operator in the world. If you buy department store chains or legacy media companies, right? There are just businesses where the wind's in your face. And you'd love to do things where the wind's at your back. Now, you can still overpay. You could have the wrong business model and a good neighborhood, but your chance of success is much higher. So as an organization, we're constantly saying to ourselves, what are those themes? And so to the question, I'd say there are some... There's a global shortage of housing since the GFC. We've been investing against that. We've been selling goods, obviously, really now for 25 years, increasingly online.

• 22:33Speaker 06

  Owning last mile logistics has been an incredible business. Because every time you buy something from Amazon, it goes through one of these last mile logistics hubs. There are geographies. India has been moving towards capitalism. You know, more physical, legal, capital markets infrastructure. And so, building a great team there, investing in the right sectors, that has been an unbelievably successful theme for us. Japan has really reemerged in the last three or four years. Is a place that's open to foreign capital. That's allowing companies to restructure. Allowing people like us to take companies private. And that's creating a lot of energy and excitement. You mentioned life sciences. I mean, if you think about this AI,

• 23:17Speaker 06

  and the number of products that can be created, and yet, it's all still gonna have to go through Phase 3 trials. And we've got a big business that does just that. We love that. That's an area where, obviously, human beings are gonna continue to invest a bunch of capital. The physical world, the reindustrialization is massive. Probably the biggest thing beyond the data centers for us today, which we can talk about, is what's happening in electricity. I mean, all of the things. The data centers, the robots, the autonomous vehicles. That reindustrialization, it all needs power. And it's everything from LNG, to renewables, to pipelines,

• 23:59Speaker 06

  to electrical equipment, to utility services. The way to think about it is, you try to find some great thing, like data centers. And then you turn it upside down and say, what are all the inputs that go into that? Or today, sadly, defense feels like it's gonna be a massive tailwind business, right? Every country around the world is gonna be spending more on defense. And so, I think as investors, getting your heads around that and positioning your portfolio in private markets or public markets to say, These are the areas I have the highest conviction. The best is when you can find something one derivative off. Because today, as you guys know, the hottest things tend to get really high multiples.

• 24:42Speaker 06

  But can I find that thing that's not quite as sexy? And for us, of course, the data centers have been an unbelievable way to play it. Then you get the benefit of this without necessarily having to pay a huge price.

• 24:54John Coogan?

  How are you grounding the, your thesis around artificial intelligence and the growth there? Like, are you, obviously, there's a million data points about revenue and multiples and valuations. And there's a lot of good news where, no matter where you look. But do you ever zoom out and look at how you at Blackstone are using artificial intelligence? The value that you're getting for it, where it's working, where it's not working? And use that to sort of level set on how real, how impactful this technology will be?

• 25:28Speaker 06

  Absolutely. I mean, I think the thing driving us is seeing the power of this technology as it gets deployed. Now, I think all of us are frustrated that the technology is so powerful, but getting it inside of companies is hard.

• 25:42John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 25:42Speaker 06

  It's sort of the beaker to bedside problem in clinical trials, right? Like, we've got this great medicine, how do we get it to the patients? How do we turn it into something usable? That is the challenge. But we are definitely finding more and more use cases. The first thing I'd point out, at our companies, their LLM spend, and we have, by the way, we have 270 companies, 13,000 pieces of real estate, it's massive in its scale. Our company's spend on LLMs was up 15-fold Q1 of this year over last. Now, it's off a small base.

• 26:18John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 26:18Speaker 06

  But it tells you what's happening.

• 26:19John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 26:20Speaker 06

  And all of these companies are trying to find ways to be more efficient. We own an accounting firm, they're trying to make, obviously, tax and audit much more automated using this technology. We own ancestry.com, and they're trying to do things with content creation, which is telling an immersive story based on your family history, as opposed to just giving you a bunch of data. And geographies and so forth. And by the way, content creation, a lot of ways is the easiest. You know, coding, music, movies, because it's not, the rules aren't as important. Probabilistic works better than, you know, software is great because it's deterministic. There's yes or no.

• 26:58John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 26:59Speaker 06

  But content is the easiest place we're seeing pickup. But I could go through, we have a company that does lab grown diamond grading. And of course, reviewing these things visually with the AI is improving the efficiency of that company.

• 27:13John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 27:13Speaker 06

  At Blackstone, we're trying to make our investment process better. Take in all this data from what we have in the outside world. Look at our historical memos. Read the diligence that's here and say to the teams, these are the areas you should focus on. It's not making the decisions, but it's a tool that's making us much more efficient. So I would say to us on the compute side, it still feels like it's very early days in the implementation. But we can see particularly in rules-based businesses, you know, transaction processing, legal, what is a billable hour going to be? This feels like the path of travel in a big way, but I think it's taking more time than most of us would hope.

• 27:58John Coogan?

  Yeah. How have you been processing the idea that certain moats might be eroded? There might be more competition in certain sectors of the economy going forward? Is the moat section of every investment memo getting longer these days? How are you investigating that?

• 28:14Speaker 06

  I would say the uncertainty section of every one of these memos is getting longer because investing is hard. And what you did historically was look at, you know, 10 or 20-year history of a business and industry. And it just may not apply, right? And we've seen this in the past, right? The Yellow Pages, which I may be dating myself with you guys, but you used to get a plumber opening up your Yellow Pages. Find them. When the internet came along, they disappeared. Taxi cab business, which still exists, but obviously when Uber and Lyft showed up, it changed the world in a really profound way. Now, the issue is, in 50 different verticals, there are going to be impacts. And how do I think about it?

• 28:59Speaker 06

  Autonomous vehicles, which reduce the accident rate by 95% on serious accidents. Like, won't that happen? And what does that mean for collision repair? What does that mean for auto insurance? So, I would say the areas of greatest risk today are obviously in sort of the white collar world. It's the software, it's professional services, information services. And there, you're spending a lot of time trying to understand what the world may look like. And as a result, what you're beginning to see, both in the public markets and the private markets, I describe it almost like the Red Sea parting, where obviously there are companies viewed as AI winners.

• 29:39Speaker 06

  Could be LLM's application software, could be the digital energy infrastructure, that's easy. Then there are companies in the physical world that are pretty unaffected. We took a company, Medline, public at the end of last year. It's in medical supplies, manufacturers distribute them. No impact, basically, from this, and that's easy to underwrite. And I think what you're going to see, I think you'll see a recovery, for instance, in an area like real estate that's been very much out of favor the last four years because of higher rates and a bit of overbuilding. That's going to come back because people are going to say, oh, that warehouse that's going to exist, that hotel is going to exist. I think sports, obviously. And so, I think there's definitely a tendency from investors now

• 30:23Speaker 06

  to look at this physical unaffected AI world, certainly the AI benefiting world. And then this other area is fascinating because some of these companies could end up being very attractively priced, and they may need to change their business model, but they have real incumbency. So, we have a business that does revenue management for hospitals. Helps them with their billing, basically. What do you charge for certain procedures? Now, they need to incorporate AI into the business. But if they do that, they should be a winner because they have the trust of their customers. And that's super valuable. So, I would just say the risk levels on investing have gone up, but I also, at the same time, the opportunities have gone up as well, the upside.

• 31:09Jordi Hays?

  How's your recall on your thinking around the dot com era? There was very similar fears around how the internet would disrupt different businesses. We had Rick Caruso sitting here yesterday and we were asking him about this and he's like, "I never, I never thought my category of retail would go under," even though at the time, everyone was projecting that like, "Hey, no one's gonna, why would somebody go to the store to get something if they could get it shipped directly to their house?" And so, yeah, I'm curious if you've reflected back on that era when you started your career and kind of tried to understand where you had good intuition, where you were maybe off.

• 31:47Speaker 06

  I think it's a great analogy and Rick is a very good man. It's funny, if you look at retail, I think that does resonate with what we're talking about in software. So if you go back 25 years ago, you know, just as the bubble's bursting, as Amazon's starting to become a marketplace for everything, you could have said retail will be an apocalypse. And by the way, Sears, Kmart, Toys R Us did not make it. On the other hand, Walmart, I think it's up sevenfold, cost goes up like 25-fold. TJ Maxx is up 40 times and has a $180 billion market cap.

• 32:31Jordi Hays?

  That's crazy.

• 32:31Speaker 06

  And for those companies that won, they either had something that was infrastructure-like, groceries, or had a great value proposition, really understood their customers, they found a way to navigate it. And I think that is the kind of way to think about what's coming to so many businesses, which is if they just sit and operate the way they have, they have enormous vulnerability. If they do something and have a market position that's protected, you know, they can end up doing much better. In terms of my own accuracy... I think I probably at times may have been too negative on some of the retail if I look

• 33:14Speaker 06

  back at it and some of it obviously ended up thriving and doing quite well. And so you try to have a little bit of mental flexibility.

• 33:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, well, it's good to have a mental model of like, am I looking at a, am I looking at a Sears management team or a Costco management team?

• 33:32Speaker 06

  Yeah, and it makes all the difference in the world. I've been the chairman of Hilton now for almost 20 years. And when Airbnb came out, which is an amazing business model they built, a bunch of people were saying it's the end of Hilton. Whatever, you know, the stock has been a rocket ship. Chris Nussbaum, the CEO, has done an amazing job. It had a differentiated business model. It offered something fundamentally different. And so both of those companies ended up thriving and doing great. So I do think that is the hardest part today. Because the technology is moving so quickly and is so capable, it's making it harder. What I would say as investors is anything in this AI uncertainty world

• 34:16Speaker 06

  will see these multiples come down. Because people are, until there's a sense that there's terra firma, that hey, this business model is going to survive or may end up thriving. But right now, I think people are taking a step back. And I do think there'll be some baby thrown out with the bathwater. There'll end up being some software companies that you could buy at very reasonable prices. But this is the sort of stuff. The other thing I would just point out for us, because of the risks that exist, one of the easiest ways is to be in the picks and shovels. So invest in that electricity, invest in those data centers, because you don't know who's going to win of the incumbents, who's going to win of the new model companies. But you do know they're all going to need AI factories,

• 34:59Speaker 06

  they're all going to need power. And that for us has been really the biggest strategic pivot we've made. And we think it's going to pay huge dividends for our investors.

• 35:07John Coogan?

  Well, we appreciate you taking the time to hop on the show today. We've kept you already five minutes long. We would love to have you back and go way deeper. This was a fantastic conversation.

• 35:16Jordi Hays?

  Let's do it again soon.

• 35:16John Coogan?

  Have a great rest of your week. We'll talk to you soon.

• 35:18Speaker 06

  Hey, it was an honor to be with you guys. You have a great show. Take care.

• 35:22John Coogan?

  Thank you. Up next, we have Colleen Aubrey from Amazon Web Services. You know it as AWS. She's the SVP of Applied AI Solutions here with us in the waiting room. We'll bring

• 35:37John Coogan?

  Colleen in to the TVP and UltraDome in just a minute. Not yet. Last question I wanted to ask, we didn't get a chance, was the barbell strategy. I wanted to hear his take on this idea that you have Josh Kushner buying the Giants, the most legacy thing possible, and then the AI labs, and then you have Ellison owning Bugs Bunny and a bunch of data centers. And it's this weird new normal of you buy the oldest possible thing that is resistant to any sort of disruption, and then the exact opposite. But we are joined by Colleen Aubrey from AWS in the waiting room. Let's bring her in to the TVP and UltraDome if we can. Let's give it a try. Hello, welcome to the show.

• 36:22Speaker 07

  Good morning, thank you.

• 36:24John Coogan?

  Thank you so much for taking the time to join us. Please introduce yourself and tell us a little bit about what's going on today with AWS.

• 36:31Speaker 07

  Sure, so Colleen Aubrey, been at Amazon for over 20 years now and joined AWS two years ago. And I've been on this journey of looking at how can we bring to life some of the operational expertise that we've developed at Amazon into agentic products and put them in the hands of AWS customers. And today was really sort of great to announce two new products, Connect Decisions, Amazon Connect Decisions, Amazon Connect Talent. We announced Amazon Connect Health a couple of weeks ago, and this really expands the family of Connect products that we have, adding to Amazon Connect customer, which is a nine-year-old product that we've been developing.

• 37:12John Coogan?

  So can you help me understand, I think most people will be familiar with AI chat bots, and many people will be familiar with AI agents and coding agents that they fire off a prompt, and maybe it goes for five, six, eight hours sometimes, and then comes back with a fantastic response. But when you're deploying an advanced model, a frontier model, an agent into an enterprise system that's deployed on AWS, what are your clients looking for? How are they thinking about integrating an agent into a platform? Is it that they're vending the agentic workflow to their customers in turn?

• 37:54John Coogan?

  Can you walk me through some of the examples of how enterprises are actually deploying agents in practice when most people are probably familiar with the more point solution, they type the prompt themselves?

• 38:06Speaker 07

  Yeah, well, let me first by start by saying that I think we're early in that journey.

• 38:11John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 38:12Speaker 07

  And certainly in my conversations with customers, a lot of what I hear is people looking to automate processes.

• 38:18John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 38:19Speaker 07

  Um, and so, and it's for me, what that triggers is that the mental model is looking at how work gets done today.

• 38:26John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 38:27Speaker 07

  And then putting AI to work to do that same process.

• 38:30John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 38:30Speaker 07

  And personally, my point of view is that that misses the bigger opportunity.

• 38:34John Coogan?

  Hmm.

• 38:34Speaker 07

  I think the bigger opportunity is much more transformative and we can't assume that how we work today is um, the sort of gold standard for how we might work when we have this new capability in our, in our hands, which is um, to be able to develop fairly complex agentic teammates.

• 38:53John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 38:53Speaker 07

  Um, that can work alongside people in the business. So we're really going after this, this mission of how do you develop an agentic teammate? Which is in the business with people and is actually um, transforming how work gets done. And, and do that in a way which is intuitive and natural so that transformation doesn't come with heavyweight um, change management. And so we really have gone back to the drawing board and, and trying to think about how will work happen in a number of different areas? In decision-making, within supply and demand planning, um, in healthcare, um, in recruiting and in customer journeys.

• 39:29John Coogan?

  Sure, sure. I, I feel like AWS's strong suit has always been uh, uh, understanding complex systems, being able to deploy a ton of resources, but then also being able to monitor, understand everything from cost to performance. How, how is that changing in the age of AI agents? I imagine if I have a bunch of digital workers doing stuff, uh, I want a water cooler where I can tap someone on the shoulder and say, hey, how's it going? I want analytics on how different work processes, even if they are fully automated, are continuing and progressing. Uh, what, what does the analytics stack look like in the future?

• 40:09Speaker 07

  Yeah, I think it's a good question. And certainly in the agentic teammates that we're building, there's a good amount of thought that we put into the observability, the trustworthiness, like an AI's, an agentic teammate's ability to explain why they've taken some action, why they've come to some conclusion, the reasoning that they've gone through. And an example of that is in Amazon Connect Health. In this case, we're working on behalf of providers, preparing sort of summarization of a patient's history before they meet with a with a patient. In that case, every reference, every conclusion is

• 40:49Speaker 07

  traceable into labs, into previous visits, into medications. So that the physician in this case versus builder and ST has the opportunity to be able to observe the work, to be able to reason over the work, to be able to also course correct as necessary. And so for me, I'm really much more thinking about how I make an agentic teammate trustworthy and part of the team, and that that observability comes to life in different ways. Of course, under the covers, we have to solve for price performance, we have to solve for latency, we have to solve for managing the efficiency of deploying many agents under the cover to be actually be able to deliver the experience. And that's something, some of the hard work that we're doing on behalf of customers.

• 41:32John Coogan?

  Yeah, I feel like it's potentially underappreciated. And maybe this is a side, an outgrowth of the fact that the first AI models that most people interacted with were sort of low powered chatbots that did hallucinate. But the hallucination problem has, at least to my experience, basically gone away. And it feels like the next challenge is actually educating people on the reliability, the traceability that you mentioned. And of course, I'd be interested to hear a few different, there's a whole bunch of different projects that you can embark on to to build confidence around the traceability and reliability. I did have one last question, though. I want, since you've been with Amazon for 20 years,

• 42:17John Coogan?

  I'd love to know, how has the company changed? How has it stayed the same?

• 42:23Speaker 07

  Hmm. You know, I think certainly for me, this sort of passion for inventing on behalf of customers has remained pretty consistent through like the time that I've been at the company. And so really going deep to understand a customer problem, but then also pulling back and asking ourselves, is there a better way? Is there, is, can we invent a way of solving this problem, which is meaningfully better than what exists today? And do we have a new, unique point of view about how we would do that? And that's really what we're trying to do with this Connect family of products is really, you know, ask ourselves honestly, what is the unique capability, the unique operational experience that we

• 43:06Speaker 07

  have that we can bring to life? And I think that has remained consistent. Otherwise, you know, Amazon's always evolving, always changing. And, you know, our, our businesses go through inception, they go through scale, they go through reinvention. And now is a great time for all Amazon teams to be thinking about reinvention and how do they deliver their products and services to customers now that we have this new AI capability on our hands? And it's exciting to see the energy around that. And I feel sort of like sort of just freshness in the organization as we go through this next phase.

• 43:38John Coogan?

  That's great. Well, thank you for coming on the show and congrats on the progress. We'll kick it over to Anthony next. Have a great rest of your day. We'll talk to you soon. Up next, we have Anthony, who is a VP and Distinguished Engineer at AWS as well, to continue our segment on AWS and detail a little bit of the OpenAI integration and new stateful runtime for agentic systems. And so we have Anthony in the TBN. Anthony, welcome to the show. How are you doing?

• 44:08Jordi Hays?

  What's going on?

• 44:09Speaker 08

  I'm doing great. Thanks for having me.

• 44:11John Coogan?

  Thank you so much for taking the time to join. There's been a lot of discussion back and forth, and I think it would be helpful to start with just like a one on, 101 of what is a stateful runtime? How are you thinking about agentic systems? I think everyone knows LLMs are next token predictors, maybe they're stochastic parrots, but how are you thinking about the capabilities that come from this?

• 44:32Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. And then how does that tie into the announcements today around, around some of the new models being available?

• 44:39John Coogan?

  That's great.

• 44:41Speaker 08

  Yeah, the best way I would describe it is that we've seen kind of an evolution of how folks interact with these AI models over the last few years. It started out exactly as you mentioned with just token prediction. Yeah. The early completions API from OpenAI was exactly this. You give it a string, it gives you some more strings. Yep. These APIs have advanced over the years to where that string starts to get parsed and you get tool calls. Yeah. Or you get reasoning, or you get other kind of capabilities. And what we're seeing now with agentic development is that folks are taking those tool calls, executing tools, performing things like compaction or extracting memory. And this is a super powerful mechanism. And this is really the thing that has caused at least like my career to dramatically change

• 45:25Speaker 08

  in terms of productivity and what can be accomplished now. And I think the next phase for AI, I truly believe, is taking a lot of what we've learned in the coding space where most of what's happening is happening locally on a person's laptop or maybe their development machine and making that be deeply integrated within the cloud where like real enterprise applications live and getting all those same benefits. And so what we announced with Amazon managed Bedrock, or sorry, Amazon Bedrock Managed Agents powered by OpenAI is a new API that really has three parts. So the first part allows you to create what we call a runtime. And you can think of the runtime as the definition of the agent.

• 46:07Speaker 08

  This contains skills which tell the model how to do new tasks. This includes like tools like MCP servers that you want to configure or other built-in tools and a memory policy. So you can tell it how to maintain short-term memory or long-term memory or whatever new memory mechanisms might come over the time. And then the next part, and this part is really the special bit, is the environment. Today, when most people are using tools like Codex, they're running them on their laptop and the agent effectively lives on your laptop. Yeah. That's good and bad. It means you can do all the things that that person can do. Yeah. But it also means that agent doesn't have its own identity. You can't create agent-specific policies.

• 46:49Speaker 08

  And a lot of enterprises are trying to figure out how to strike the balance of enabling these agents to work, but also making sure that you can set the right guardrails on them. Environments in Bedrock Managed Agents really solves this. It allows you to give a dedicated compute environment for that agent. It allows you to create specific policies around governance. And most critically, it gives that agent a unique identity within AWS. So as a security team or an administrator, you can create policies around what that agent can do. We think these things are absolutely critical to enable agents to be used in real-world enterprise applications. And then finally, there's the inference API, the thing that you actually talk to the agent through.

• 47:30Speaker 08

  And that API is very familiar to existing APIs like the responses API from OpenAI. And so a lot of existing applications can just work once you've created this agent.

• 47:43John Coogan?

  Can you reflect a little bit as a distinguished engineer on?

• 47:47Jordi Hays?

  Wait, wait.

• 47:48John Coogan?

  Yeah, sorry.

• 47:48Jordi Hays?

  Before we move on, if I'm an AWS customer today, what should I do to experience what you just described? Because it was a lot of corporate lingo, which I love. I'm an enthusiast. But I want to, like, what would be your recommendation of the, you know, given this new set of capabilities? What should I try doing to start? What kind of value might be unlocked in the organization in a, maybe a more straightforward way?

• 48:23Speaker 08

  Yeah, today Bedrock Managed Agents is in limited preview, and that will expand over the next coming weeks. And so you probably have to wait a couple of weeks.

• 48:31Jordi Hays?

  Got it.

• 48:31Speaker 08

  But in order to actually use this, it's really as simple as making two API calls. So you can go into your AWS account and make an API call to create a runtime. And then, once you have that runtime, you decide what type of compute you want to associate with the agent. And then you make another API to create that environment. Once you've done those two API calls, that's it. You now have an endpoint that you can take an existing tool. It can be Codex, it can be like a web chat-based system, or you can just use the OpenAI SDK and integrate it deeply within your application. But it's really that simple. It's just a couple of additional API calls, and then you're off to the races.

• 49:09John Coogan?

  How are you thinking about the the different roles of engineers right now? There's been this trend of managers and CTOs becoming individual contributors at labs. And then simultaneously, there's been individual contributors who are effectively becoming the manager of many agents. And so we're sort of going both ways. But where is the highest leverage point for someone who is on the distinguished engineer path, like the the ultimate individual contributor, but the world is changing?

• 49:40Speaker 08

  Yeah, I can tell you that like in my role, I am coding almost every day.

• 49:46John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 49:47Speaker 08

  I took the day off today to come and do this event, but I'm I'm spending almost all of my time coding. I'm having probably the best time of my career.

• 49:54John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 49:55Speaker 08

  What my experience has been with all of these coding tools is that once you make coding fast, once you make the actual art of generating the code quickly, what really matters is your understanding of algorithms and data structures, architecture, patterns, and things like that. So I think what you're finding is that a lot of very senior ICs, folks that have a deep understanding of software architecture are now able to do really amazing things because they understand how to prompt these models in a way to be able to generate, you know, new things.

• 50:27John Coogan?

  Is it less frustrating? Are you having the most fun you've ever had?

• 50:31Speaker 08

  I've always felt in my career that I was limited by typing.

• 50:36John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 50:37Speaker 08

  Like, I don't care, I don't mind typing, I don't mind writing, I love writing code.

• 50:40John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 50:41Speaker 08

  But, you know, you can think about a problem and you can think about solutions.

• 50:43John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 50:44Speaker 08

  And then you're like, okay, this is going to take me weeks to actually implement.

• 50:47John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 50:48Speaker 08

  And that's just something I had always become resigned to, is that it's going to take me weeks to solve that problem. Now I think about the solution to that problem. I I do some prompting and codex.

• 50:57John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 50:58Speaker 08

  And I have the solution by the end of the day. And that is so incredibly rewarding as an engineer.

• 51:04John Coogan?

  Yeah, that's amazing. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come.

• 51:07Speaker 08

  Yeah, thanks for breaking it down. Absolutely. It's great to meet you.

• 51:11John Coogan?

  We'll talk to you soon.

• 51:12Speaker 08

  Thanks for having me.

• 51:13John Coogan?

  Have a good one.

• 51:14Speaker 08

  Cheers.

• 51:15John Coogan?

  Goodbye. Up next, we have Colin Zima from Omni. He is the co-founder and CEO. Building a semantic layer powering AI-driven analytics.

• 51:23Jordi Hays?

  Do I blink?

• 51:25John Coogan?

  Do you not blink?

• 51:26Jordi Hays?

  Apparently not, but I was blinking at them once I saw that.

• 51:30John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 51:30Jordi Hays?

  I was communicating.

• 51:32John Coogan?

  You weren't imagining it.

• 51:33Jordi Hays?

  I was communicating.

• 51:35John Coogan?

  Have you been picking up on the drink the Diet Coke with two hands thing? They demand that they.

• 51:39Jordi Hays?

  Oh, yeah, I wasn't gonna, I wasn't gonna do that.

• 51:41John Coogan?

  You stared them down, said, no.

• 51:44Jordi Hays?

  I saw that.

• 51:44John Coogan?

  But I oblige every once in a while with the two-handed Diet Coke. If I see somebody who's like, oh, they're not reading the chat, drink the Diet Coke with two hands. If you're, if you're reading, I'm gonna sip a Diet Coke with two hands.

• 51:57John Coogan?

  Anyway, our next guest is in the waiting room. Let's bring him into the TVP and UltraDome. Colin, how you doing?

• 52:03Speaker 09

  I'm great.

• 52:04John Coogan?

  Welcome to the chat.

• 52:04Speaker 09

  Two-handed drink for you.

• 52:05John Coogan?

  There we go. He's reading chat. This is great. Introduce yourself, introduce the company, tell us the news.

• 52:12Speaker 09

  Yeah, Colin Zima, CEO at Omni Analytics. We are building the next great data platform. So a product that can do everything from AI to spreadsheets to dashboards. We're trying to consolidate all of BI into one tool. And we're building on top of a semantic layer. So a layer that can explain how everything in the business works so that AI does stuff reliably.

• 52:32John Coogan?

  How generalizable is the semantic layer? Like this has got to be some trade-off because the different businesses have different ontologies. How are you thinking about creating something that's flexible but simultaneously uniform?

• 52:45Speaker 09

  So, I mean, on the one hand, a semantic layer is actually pretty straightforward. It's just a bunch of text about the business. So if I'm gonna go write a semantic layer for ChatGPT or Claude. Right now, that is what the skills framework looks like. It's a document that has lists of stuff about the business. And that is completely unique to every single company. On the flip side, we've had semantic layers in data for 50 years at this point. And it's the specifics of how all the tables in a warehouse fit together. And what we're doing is just bringing that, like bridging those two worlds together. So it is completely specific to every business. Yes, exactly, like a snowflake or a Databricks.

• 53:21John Coogan?

  Yeah, so are, I mean, I imagine that there's still a world for databases in the future. How are you thinking about that? Do migrations get easier or changing schemas get easier in the future? Or does this get harder because the data is just so much more? How are you thinking about the evolution of databases and how you'll use them?

• 53:41Speaker 09

  Yeah, I mean, using sort of public trading as a proxy for this, it seems like the data warehouses have found like a nice middle ground in between the like the SaaS apocalypse and the pure play AI companies. Like, we need somewhere to hold all of the data. And so I think the databases will probably be here for a long time. I think what has gotten interesting is that picking up your data infrastructure from one tool and moving it to another tool has gotten substantially easier. Like SaaS used to have a good bit more lock-in than it does today. And you still need a database that's holding all the stuff. But the portability of it, I think, is the new question.

• 54:20John Coogan?

  Yeah. Is there a piece of this pitch that's like cost-driven? Because with some of the advanced models, it feels like if I just threw a million dollars at computed a problem, I can have it go and parse through every PDF and turn it, use an API to turn it into text and turn it into CSVs and write custom Python for it. And just to answer the question of like, what was revenue last month, right? And that feels inefficient. It feels like this is a good solution. But is that, is that the goal? Or is it something faster, speed, cost, everything?

• 54:55Speaker 09

  I don't think that we started there, but I think that, to your point, like savvy people are sort of coming around to this. Because on one side, these models are smart enough that you can just sort of throw it at, you know, Google Drive and Slack in your warehouse. And you can actually answer every single question. So you can get 80% of the way there with literally no thought. Which on the one hand is a little bit scary to build a data company, because it's sort of like, again, why don't you do this? I think to your point, you probably don't want to reinvent your ARR metric every single time you query. And ultimately, if it's a one-second answer that you're going to ask every single day, a dashboard is probably a pretty decent place to go get that. We don't need to rebuild the dashboard on the fly every single time. So people are starting

• 55:38Speaker 09

  to come around to realize that this is a cost-performance optimization problem. And it turns out that the analytics products that have existed for the last 20 years or 50 years or whatever it is, actually do have some sort of good solutions to these things. I think at the same time, trying to fight the idea that you can just bring ChatGPT to the warehouse and get an answer. Is a naive version of building product now.

• 56:02John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 56:02Speaker 09

  Every single person is going to compare your SaaS product to sitting the thing on the warehouse or just setting it up yourself.

• 56:09John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 56:09Speaker 09

  And doing it in in Claude.

• 56:11John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 56:11Speaker 09

  And so figuring out that balance is like the goal of every SaaS company now.

• 56:16John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 56:17Speaker 09

  And cost is a part of it.

• 56:18John Coogan?

  Okay, uh, like bit of a bit of a hot take I want you to respond to. There, there is like a muttering around like AI psychosis in the enterprise, like people vibe coding, like things that don't actually create value yet. And there's a question about like, where's the use, what's the useful token spend versus just the explorative explorative sort of performative token spend? I think there's a lot of real stuff to be done, but there's also some crazy, uh, just some crazy internal tools that are just like, you know, self perpetuating. And it reminds me of, uh, people had dashboard psychosis like a decade ago. I worked at a company where somebody was like, oh, we need all the, all every dashboard.

• 56:59John Coogan?

  We got to have every metric. And I'm like, you kind of just, you, you oftentimes you have a question and you just need to go answer that question. You don't need to be checking like, what's the website traffic on my website every single minute? Like, sometimes that's not useful. Sometimes there's already dashboard for it. So how do you think about rolling out like dashboards or analytic products that are actually effective? And like what coaching needs to happen versus just like raw consumption?

• 57:23Speaker 09

  It's, it, it really comes down to pragmatism. So the example I love to give is, Good Tara Center is a customer of ours. They have sent spreadsheets to every single store for the last 30 years that have every single SKU and like the week over week, day over day sales.

• 57:38John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 57:38Speaker 09

  That's not a process that needs reinventing.

• 57:40John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 57:40Speaker 09

  Like they're going to send the spreadsheets to the stores for the next 25 years. You need products that can do that.

• 57:45John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 57:46Speaker 09

  You're also going to have a dashboard. Like I, I want to know what our plan is and I want to go compare like our ARR on a weekly basis to where it is relative to plan.

• 57:54John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 57:55Speaker 09

  You're also going to just have a question that you need answered that you didn't predict in advance and need to go answer questions. And I think the challenge is that Every vendor sort of has this point of view that's like, you know, dashboards are the way, or Tableau was visualizations are the way to do everything. And then I was at Looker and semantic layers were the way to do everything.

• 58:13John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 58:14Speaker 09

  And I think what you see is that there's a little bit of truth in all of these things. And quite frankly, right now, it's AI is the way to do everything.

• 58:20John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 58:21Speaker 09

  And we're into, you know, how many billion tokens can you spend to go answer your question?

• 58:25John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 58:25Speaker 09

  We probably want a tool that does all of those things and actually makes them fit together.

• 58:30John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 58:30Speaker 09

  And it's sort of like the, it's not the sexiest pitch, you know, every single thing that you are doing is right and you need a little bit of all of it.

• 58:38John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 58:38Speaker 09

  But I think that there is space for pragmatism in the world where we can invent things on the fly sometimes, and that is a great way of doing it, and we don't need UI. And we had good UIs and they do things and, you know, websites are good and we can go back to them again.

• 58:53John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 58:53Speaker 09

  So it's both.

• 58:54John Coogan?

  It's not the sexiest pitch, but it was sexy enough to get the Series C done. How much did you raise? Tell me about the round.

• 59:01Speaker 09

  We were 120 million at a 5.1 plus valuation.

• 59:09Jordi Hays?

  Massive.

• 59:10John Coogan?

  Massive.

• 59:11Jordi Hays?

  Quick, could you, could you give us a quick history of the company? When did you actually start the company?

• 59:15Speaker 09

  Yeah. February 22, so four years and a little bit old.

• 59:20John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 59:20Speaker 09

  Um, we raised about $27 million as we got the company started. Uh, did our B about 12 months ago, um, at a $650 million valuation. So

• 59:32John Coogan?

  Another

• 59:32Speaker 09

  we're building for about a year and a half, and we've been selling for two and a half.

• 59:35John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 59:36Speaker 09

  So business has been pretty good.

• 59:37John Coogan?

  Fantastic.

• 59:38Jordi Hays?

  And what were you doing, what were you doing before this?

• 59:40Speaker 09

  Uh, I was at a company called Looker that got acquired by Google, so

• 59:43Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 59:43Speaker 09

  Uh, still a very direct competitor to my previous company.

• 59:47Jordi Hays?

  You know.

• 59:47John Coogan?

  You know what you're doing. Well, congratulations on the progress.

• 59:50Jordi Hays?

  I love, uh, the, the chat loves the pink, by the way. I love the pink.

• 59:54John Coogan?

  It's great.

• 59:55Jordi Hays?

  Are you guys like fully just, are you gonna own pink?

• 59:58Speaker 09

  We embraced the pink. We sort of fell into it. We were going to a conference that was all blue and gray. And one of our marketing leaders was like, hey, wear some pink. People will notice you.

• 1:00:09John Coogan?

  Stand out.

• 1:00:09Speaker 09

  And then we just turned into a pink company. So we embraced it.

• 1:00:11John Coogan?

  Fantastic.

• 1:00:12Jordi Hays?

  I love it. Very smart.

• 1:00:13John Coogan?

  Well, congratulations. Thanks so much for taking the time to come chat with us. We'll talk to you soon.

• 1:00:17Speaker 09

  Thanks for having me, guys.

• 1:00:18John Coogan?

  Have a good one. Goodbye. Up next.

• 1:00:20Jordi Hays?

  Interesting username. I didn't get to ask him about it.

• 1:00:23John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah?

• 1:00:24Jordi Hays?

  @Drinkzima. It sounds like some type of like cool caffeinated beverage.

• 1:00:29John Coogan?

  Yeah. It does. It's a Zico coconut water.

• 1:00:33Jordi Hays?

  Get a very cool caffeinated energy.

• 1:00:34John Coogan?

  Maybe that's the next job, the next thing. He can buy Sobi, bring it back. Up next, we have Alex Epstein, the author of Fossil Future, live in the TVP and Ultra Dome, taking us through what's going on in the world, what's going on in the energy markets, what's going on with OPEC. Great to see you again, Alex. Thank you so much for taking the time to come on down to the TVP and Ultra Dome. Please, get us up to speed. What should we be paying attention to?

• 1:00:59Jordi Hays?

  Look at this black on black.

• 1:01:00John Coogan?

  You look fantastic.

• 1:01:01Alex Epstein?

  Oh, thank you.

• 1:01:02Jordi Hays?

  So good. With the hair, too.

• 1:01:04Alex Epstein?

  Oh, my God. Do you guys remember what we talked about last time?

• 1:01:07Jordi Hays?

  The strait?

• 1:01:08Alex Epstein?

  The strait. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, by the way, interesting fun fact about AI. So I think most of what I said last time was vindicated in terms of the main thing was this strait needs to open and there's no substitute for it. There's all these other little things you can do, but nothing compares. And that's, that's still true. I would add, you need to enduringly open the strait. So if you cut a deal with Iran and they have control over it, even if they give you control for a year or whatever, that's not, then you've actually made the situation way worse than it was before the war, where everyone figured, we really have control over the strait. But fun fact, since you're talking about AI tokens, so in preparation for that, in addition to consulting experts and thinking

• 1:01:51Alex Epstein?

  about the issue, I have my own internal AI called Alex AI Pro, which I've invested over a million dollars in. And, oh, yeah, it's nuts. So to talk about, and one of the things I've invested in is I don't get enough compute.

• 1:02:04Jordi Hays?

  A stack.

• 1:02:04Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, yeah. I don't get enough compute from off the shelf AI. So you need, you know, if you can run your own agents, then you can do it. So. That query, which I think led to very valuable content, was 48 kilowatt hours. So that's half a Tesla.

• 1:02:21John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:02:21Jordi Hays?

  Wow.

• 1:02:22Alex Epstein?

  Think about that. That's three power walls.

• 1:02:24John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:02:24Alex Epstein?

  For one query.

• 1:02:25John Coogan?

  That's a ton.

• 1:02:27Alex Epstein?

  So, uh, yes, I know.

• 1:02:28Jordi Hays?

  How long was that running for?

• 1:02:31Alex Epstein?

  10 or 20 minutes.

• 1:02:33John Coogan?

  What? That's crazy. And what is it doing? Like pulling data from the internet? Pulling it together, writing?

• 1:02:40Alex Epstein?

  It's really god mode. I'll show it to you sometime. Well, actually, so here's an announcement for the first time. That a version of that AI is now free to everyone who works in government. So it's gov.alexepstein.ai.

• 1:02:52John Coogan?

  No way.

• 1:02:53Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, yeah. So at some point, it's free. We're gonna, if you use too many tokens, we'll have to just charge you cost.

• 1:02:58John Coogan?

  Okay, okay.

• 1:02:59Alex Epstein?

  Beyond that. But yeah, I mean, I have my, I have a lobbying firm, which is the only pro-freedom lobbying firm, the Energy Freedom Fund, which is a 501(c)(4) that I'm the unpaid president of. And I figure like, one of the best ways to spend those dollars is to give people a pro-freedom AI. So I'm not going to make any money off those queries, but I'll at least cover our, our compute costs. So this is a real world example of, I believe that if you know how to intelligently integrate AI, you can make use of a lot of energy.

• 1:03:27John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:03:27Alex Epstein?

  And very profitably.

• 1:03:29John Coogan?

  Sure, sure, sure. Yeah, of course. Because like, the, the results that come from good research are good policies and good consulting fees and all sorts of.

• 1:03:36Alex Epstein?

  But you need to, you need to train it. So a lot of the work is just literally breaking down everything I do and my researchers do. So we just, I just built one today, which is the Policy Validator, which is, anyone is free to send us policies and we'll lobby for them in proportion to merit, not, not in proportion of payment. We don't take payment for this kind of thing.

• 1:03:55John Coogan?

  Interesting.

• 1:03:56Alex Epstein?

  But I needed to replicate, hey, I have these two really brilliant researchers and then I'm pretty good and we have some other pretty good people. Like, how do you break that down? And there, turns out there's about 25 questions you need to ask to get the credibility of the people. Is this a pro-freedom policy? Is this going to increase energy abundance? Are there better ideas? And if you know how to really do it, you can get, and you have human validators at the end of it. It's, it's. In terms of what what you can do.

• 1:04:24John Coogan?

  Okay, let's start with there was a on the straight. There was this interesting piece in the Economist that was arguing that the market was simply not processing or digesting the fact that even if the straight were fully open today, there's still a massive shortage of energy that is effectively delayed and that that would have ripple effects on the economy, inflation, all sorts of things. However, you processed the the impacts, the downstream impacts. I think a lot of people see it at the pump when they go and fill up their cars if they drive gas cars. It's starting to show up in other places. But how are you thinking about just what's at stake? Why the straight being open is important from first principles?

• 1:05:08Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, I'm very sympathetic to that argument. It would be just miraculous if it didn't get a lot worse in terms of in terms of prices. And you're dealing with a situation we talked about last time. You have a certain amount of spare capacity. So, you know, we international agencies released a lot, a reasonable, yeah, in terms of their oil reserves. But these are all very temporary

• 1:05:33John Coogan?

  It's like 30 days here, 90 days there.

• 1:05:36Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, and there was already a bunch of supply.

• 1:05:39John Coogan?

  Yeah, no one's sitting on 5,000 days of oil.

• 1:05:41Alex Epstein?

  And the thing you have to realize is, you know, in America, we are very America centric. So, you know, we don't even think about Canada, let alone Asia. And a lot of what's happening with the straight is oil that is intended for Asia and Asian consumption. Now, the Chinese are in an interesting situation because they they did build up a bunch of spare oil. Now, there's questions of other things they need, like sulfur and helium that go through the straight. And I've heard interesting claims about that. But we're already seeing in Asia various shortages. And, you know, one analyst that I likened to, okay, you're starting like one part of the Titanic is starting to fill. And not everyone on the Titanic realizes this is happening. But you're

• 1:06:22Alex Epstein?

  cutting off a huge, whether it's 14% or 20% or whatever, you're cutting off a huge percent of Oil supply.

• 1:06:29John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:06:30Alex Epstein?

  And that cannot last. And even if you solved everything today, it takes a while.

• 1:06:35John Coogan?

  To bring it back.

• 1:06:35Alex Epstein?

  To bring it back.

• 1:06:36John Coogan?

  Of course.

• 1:06:37Alex Epstein?

  And right now, we're in ceasefire mode.

• 1:06:39John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:06:39Alex Epstein?

  Which is not creating enduring.

• 1:06:42John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:06:42Alex Epstein?

  That doesn't enduringly open it up.

• 1:06:45John Coogan?

  Yeah. I heard, I think it was Rahm Emanuel was saying that the Gulf states do not want Iran to have a veto over the strait, even if the strait is opened. Now, the conversation has shifted to, what does it take that America is potentially responsible or is being held responsible for removing that veto, right? Is that your perception as well?

• 1:07:11Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, that's my perspective, is it needs to be enduring. So in advance of this, there was the idea that, hey, if America ever goes into this, to Iran, obviously, we're going to keep the strait open. Obviously, we're going to prioritize that. That unfortunately did not happen to the extent that it did. I mean, you know, there are different people in the administration, but overall, I mean, we have to just be objective. I'll praise them where they deserve praise, but like, they were not prepared for this.

• 1:07:33John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 1:07:34Alex Epstein?

  In terms of whatever the final decisions were. I think within a week of our last interview, not because of our last interview, but I just talking to people in the administration, they all became very clear that Hormuz is non-dispensible. Before that, there had been people saying, oh, we have Venezuela, we have all this, it's all nonsense.

• 1:07:50John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:07:51Alex Epstein?

  So they understand.

• 1:07:51John Coogan?

  We talked about that with Venezuela, it's like 1% maybe.

• 1:07:54Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, 1%, you might get to 1%. No, at some point.

• 1:07:57John Coogan?

  You might get to 1% and we're talking about 20%.

• 1:07:59Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, we're talking about years.

• 1:08:00John Coogan?

  Are there 30 Venezuelans, no.

• 1:08:01Alex Epstein?

  And years.

• 1:08:02John Coogan?

  There's no one to do business with.

• 1:08:03Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, yeah, so it's, like, they understand the importance, but it's still in this mode where Iran now is known to have, like, Iran has proven that they can control the Strait of Hormuz in a way that the US cannot obviously counteract. So if we cut a deal with them where they, again, where it's, where they have, where they can use the same power to stop us anytime they want, then it's not open, right? Open is a little bit ambiguous, like, it can be open momentarily, but it's open on their terms. So basically, you need, without giving any strategy, because I don't know the exact strategy, it needs to open on our terms.

• 1:08:41John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:08:41Alex Epstein?

  That's the only way you have a victory.

• 1:08:43John Coogan?

  Sure, sure.

• 1:08:44Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, that's

• 1:08:45John Coogan?

  Let's shift to OPEC. Can you give me a primer on OPEC? It's the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries?

• 1:08:53Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, yeah. And now it's, you know, OPEC plus and

• 1:08:55John Coogan?

  OPEC plus. So, yeah, take me through some of the history and the

• 1:08:58Alex Epstein?

  Let's talk about cartels. I think the easiest way to understand this. It's important to understand cartels and I think people have a uniformly negative view of cartels, which is plausible, but a little bit exaggerated. So you take the

• 1:09:12Jordi Hays?

  People that aren't a part of cartel.

• 1:09:14John Coogan?

  There's no I in cartel.

• 1:09:15Jordi Hays?

  Like, yeah, exactly.

• 1:09:17Alex Epstein?

  Well, so you think about the, the, if we go look at the early oil industry, where Rockefeller is criticized as a monopolist and we created this thing, the Sherman Antitrust Act and other things to prosecute so-called monopolists. And I'm totally against these laws for, for any number of reasons. I don't think the, the government should not be able to create monopolies that it enforces by force, saying, hey, there's one producer, nobody can compete. But nor should it be able to say, hey, you're really successful in this market.

• 1:09:45Jordi Hays?

  You're too good.

• 1:09:46Alex Epstein?

  And so I've decided that you're too good. And, and one of the things that people will counter with is, well, what if?

• 1:09:52John Coogan?

  Economic deadweight loss.

• 1:09:54Alex Epstein?

  What do you mean?

• 1:09:55John Coogan?

  Just the idea that if, if, if you actually do control 100% of a resource, you can charge dramatically above market rates, which are, which reduce demand and wind up having like less human flourishing because you have less energy produced in fact.

• 1:10:10Alex Epstein?

  Yeah. So what happens in practice is like, if you look at what happened with Rockefeller. So Rockefeller took, his focus was refining. But you look at the people, the early people in the oil industry, the different producers. What would happen is oil prices are decent. Then you get a flood of new oil on the market and people just get wasted. They get ruined. And so what does that do? That disincentivizes people from investing over time because the volatility is so high. So what Rockefeller was basically able to do is he said, okay, I'm going to buy you up. You're, you're exposing yourself to way too much risk. I'm going to buy you up. I can run everything much more efficiently. And so in the long term, we can have something that is A, profitable and B, has much lower prices on average than the very volatile situation.

• 1:10:54Alex Epstein?

  And in fact, he dramatically lowered prices. So the interesting thing, so you could think of Rockefeller, they call it It's in a sense a cartel, but it's a free market cartel, which I think should be able to exist. But you can call it-

• 1:11:05John Coogan?

  Yeah. And I believe that's in the Sherman Antitrust Act in some ways. Like, you have to prove consumer harm, and this is why-

• 1:11:12Alex Epstein?

  Well, there's later versions. I mean, it's very vague. It's like, you can't do restraint of trade, which what the hell does that mean? And then later, they have these different things. And I have a lot of reasons for being against it, but it's notable that the volatility is a real, a really, really big thing in oil markets historically. And that's why-

• 1:11:33John Coogan?

  And that yields-

• 1:11:33Alex Epstein?

  Whether or not you think free market cartels should exist, as I do, you have to understand why these things exist. Why any cartels, OPEC is not a free market cartel, but why these exist is because the volatility is just so, so high. And oil is so, so valuable. So people want steady oil, but, and they want people to be comfortable being in the oil business, instead of just getting wrecked all the time and getting thrown out. So, we had this era of Rockefeller, and then that was broken up. And then we have in the United, the United States had something called the Texas Railroad Commission, which basically cartelized, America was the dominant producer. And so they did these things that basically rationed how much everyone could produce. So the term that's often used is swing producer.

• 1:12:16Alex Epstein?

  The US was the swing producer, which meant that they could basically control the supply in the world. So if there were, you know, and in particular, if there was, you know, a cut in demand for some reason, they could cut supply. And if there's a huge increase in demand, they could increase supply. So that happens until, you know, the Mideast starts to boom, and then the Mideast starts to become the swing producer with the rise of Saudi Arabia and others having very low cost oil. And so then you have the era of OPEC. But then you have fracking. And so for a little while, the US becomes the swing producer in the sense of, we have unrestrained production. We add a lot of oil to the market.

• 1:12:57Alex Epstein?

  And what happens? At a certain point, prices crash, there's overinvestment. Our US consumers benefit hugely from fracking, but a lot of these companies just get wrecked. And then they start doing what they'd call fiscal discipline, which functions as a restraint on supply, even though it's, they're not doing any kind of cartel activity. They're basically saying, hey, we're not going to produce if prices go below this. We're not going to keep increasing our production, et cetera, et cetera. So, the reason, if you take OPEC right now, and OPEC plus- They have a lot of reasons, even though there's a lot of unethical stuff, and I don't think the government should own the oil, and I think they stole the oil. So, but if you just understand how they're thinking, they do not want a, they want to sustain

• 1:13:41Alex Epstein?

  a certain level of price. So you have the different swing producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, and then UAE, who we're talking about, they want to keep, like, what happens if, if, if there's excess supply on the market relative to demand, they will cut, this is the key, they will cut their supply as a swing producer to keep prices high. Because if they don't, then prices will go low, and that will have a ruinous effect on many people, including US shale, by the way, because we have higher production costs, but including these economies that are dominated by oil. So you take Saudi Arabia, they're so dependent on oil, and they have all of these alleged green ambitions that are totally fueled by oil, and they have all these welfare schemes that are totally fueled by oil. UAE is a

• 1:14:25Alex Epstein?

  little bit less dependent. So the interesting thing about UAE saying they're going to withdraw is, can they sustain this if there's a supply glut? Right now, there's a supply shortage. So it's easy to say, we're going to leave OPEC, because there's, there's just, there, there's no, there's no need from their perspective to cut supply. And then everyone will take all the supply they get. And Saudi Arabia doesn't really care if UAE produces more now. But when there's a supply glut, is UAE gonna, is, are they going to stay out of OPEC, or is Saudi Arabia going to be able to pressure them back like they've done? Because Saudi Arabia can say, we've got the most oil, we can just flood the market too, and ruin you.

• 1:15:04Jordi Hays?

  Is there a history of major suppliers leaving and coming back?

• 1:15:08Alex Epstein?

  I don't know. I mean, there's at least been threats, like Saudi Arabia has been able to use a lot of force. Now, the, they've been able to do that in the past, but the argument, so there's an argument that the UAE won't stay out of OPEC, because Saudi Arabia can pressure them back in when there's a supply glut. There's also an argument that UAE has become more disentangled from oil now than it used to be, because it's diversified its economy, it doesn't have all the welfare obligations of Saudi Arabia, and therefore it can call Saudi Arabia's Bluff. Now, now, people will say both UAE and Saudi Arabia have incredibly low production costs. It's very cheap for them to bring a barrel up from the ground.

• 1:15:47Alex Epstein?

  But they don't just have the production costs, they have all the governmental costs of actually how they're obligated to spend that oil. Like if Saudi Arabia spends $5 a barrel on oil, say, that doesn't mean at $100 a barrel, they get $95 profit. Because they have to finance all these schemes that they're involved in.

• 1:16:04Jordi Hays?

  Sure.

• 1:16:05Alex Epstein?

  So that's going to be the interesting, that's going to be interesting thing. The other interesting thing is, so if UAE stays out, here's one, if they stay out, they're going to increase production. Let's say on some timetable, this Hormuz thing gets resolved, then it's plausible in the next few years, at some point, you'll have a supply glut. Because you'll have added a million and a half barrels a day on top of everything else. And you won't have a corresponding increase in demand and you won't have some other decrease in supply. So it's possible that they could, that this could dramatically lower prices, which would be hardest for US shale. Now, long term, I believe, the best estimates I've seen is longer term, we're actually screwed in the other direction.

• 1:16:48Alex Epstein?

  We've had all of these anti fossil fuel policies that have disincentivized long term investment in oil. And oil is really hard to sustain. People need to remember, oil depletes over time. So you don't just take the same well and keep tapping at the exact same amount. You have to do what's called reserve replacement. And there are many credible arguments that our reserve replacement has been incredibly inadequate in the ESG era. And that takes a few years to show up. But that's actually my biggest fear. Like, my biggest fear, I'm afraid of Hormuz keeping prices high. But I'm really afraid of insufficient reserve replacement with high oil demand. Because you're talking like $200 a barrel.

• 1:17:25Jordi Hays?

  That's drilling new wells.

• 1:17:26Alex Epstein?

  You have to drill so much, you have to replace so much. And the oil supply is so politically driven. Like, there's so much oil in the world that you could harness if everyone had the policy of the United States under Trump and under a friendly Congress. But most of the world has these national oil companies, we've had ESG all over the place, it's been hard to finance things. I mean, as recently as 2021, think about this, the International Energy Agency said, there should be no new oil and gas development financed. So like, we could be really screwed in terms of higher prices.

• 1:17:59John Coogan?

  I mean, geographically, it's coming up on the map there. The UAE is directly affected by Hormuz.

• 1:18:07Alex Epstein?

  Yeah.

• 1:18:08John Coogan?

  Every barrel that they make will have to go through the strait.

• 1:18:11Alex Epstein?

  Well, they have a pipeline.

• 1:18:12John Coogan?

  They do.

• 1:18:12Alex Epstein?

  They have one pipeline, but it's about a million and a half barrels.

• 1:18:15John Coogan?

  Okay, so they can get some out, so.

• 1:18:18Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, but they're, they're, oh, yeah.

• 1:18:19John Coogan?

  So if they become a swing producer, they are in a fact, they are in fact important even in a world where the strait is closed.

• 1:18:26Alex Epstein?

  No, it doesn't matter as much right now because they're saying, we want the right to expand our production, but they can't, none of them can produce as nearly as much as they want.

• 1:18:34John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:18:35Alex Epstein?

  Right now. This is why they're doing it now. They're not doing it in the time of a supply glut.

• 1:18:39John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:18:40Alex Epstein?

  They're doing it in the time of a supply shortage.

• 1:18:41John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 1:18:42Alex Epstein?

  Because nobody really cares. It doesn't, doesn't really affect things for them to say, oh, yeah, we have a million and a half spare capacity that we'd like to use and we're planning on using into the future, but right now, we can't bring most of that to market. No one can bring anything to market.

• 1:18:55John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:18:56Alex Epstein?

  That's different from a situation which we've had fairly recently where there's tons of supply on the market. Like, there's too much and US producers are saying, hey, we've got $50 a barrel oil. This is really hard to sustain. Imagine then, a million and a half new barrels coming on the market.

• 1:19:12Jordi Hays?

  Uh, who wins? Who saw the news this morning and was fist pumping?

• 1:19:17Alex Epstein?

  Well, I, I don't think most people understand the consequences of these, these things because I think many people think, oh, it's going to be amazing for the US. Like, OPEC bad, US good. But like, OPEC, the, the way it's set up, it, it in a sense favors our shale producers because they have higher, they're one of the higher cost, set of higher cost producers in the world.

• 1:19:41Jordi Hays?

  So if you have OPEC collectively decided to just massively increase supply and flood the market, they could do real damage to our.

• 1:19:48Alex Epstein?

  And this has happened already.

• 1:19:50Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:19:50Alex Epstein?

  Right? This has happened in previous years.

• 1:19:52Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, like you were saying, if you're, if you're in shale and you're trying to make money at $50 a barrel, it's like very, you're really hoping, what's, what's the sweet spot again? It's like somewhere between 70 and like 90?

• 1:20:08Alex Epstein?

  Yeah, I mean, they all, yeah, sweet spot is interesting, right? Because they'll, they'll take whatever they can get. But yeah, if they get to 70, 80, 90, it's, it's a lot more profitable. And basically, not much changes about their cost structure when prices go low. So it's almost pure profit. I mean, a little bit, they can squeeze that what are called the oil field service companies. But you have to, when you're thinking of oil, and particularly oil, you're just thinking like, every $10 that goes up, that is almost pure profit for them. And every $10 that goes down, that is almost pure loss of profit, or loss in absolute terms. Now, in terms of policy, look, I think we should forcibly reopen the strait. And I don't believe that the US government should be directly trying to favor or disfavor its shell companies. But it's just important for people to understand these,

• 1:20:52Alex Epstein?

  these dynamics. And it's, it's not, and also, you have to understand, the UAE is doing this at an opportunistic time. They're not doing it at a time when there's already a supply block.

• 1:21:01John Coogan?

  Sure, sure. Shifting gears, where do you want to go?

• 1:21:04Jordi Hays?

  I wanted to ask you about beaming sun

• 1:21:07John Coogan?

  I had the exact question.

• 1:21:09Jordi Hays?

  Into solar panels.

• 1:21:11John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:21:12Jordi Hays?

  So they can get 24

• 1:21:13Alex Epstein?

  In space?

• 1:21:14John Coogan?

  They're going to put a mirror in space that shines light onto a solar array so that they can get 24/7 power to a data center potentially.

• 1:21:24Alex Epstein?

  They're going to do it on Earth?

• 1:21:25John Coogan?

  The recipient of the light will be on Earth, a solar panel next to a data center. But there will be a mirror in, there's a specific orbit that is always in the sun. And so, and the sun will hit the mirror, and the, and the light will bounce down onto this particular solar panel in their solar array. And so they will be able to get power from their solar panels 24/7.

• 1:21:51Alex Epstein?

  There's no weather that interferes with this?

• 1:21:55John Coogan?

  Weather might interfere a little bit.

• 1:21:57Alex Epstein?

  Okay, so I have not

• 1:21:59John Coogan?

  So closer to 24/7 than current.

• 1:22:01Alex Epstein?

  Here's, here's the dynamic, is the, obviously, in space, you have 24/7 solar.

• 1:22:08John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:22:09Alex Epstein?

  And it's really hard to do things in space.

• 1:22:11John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:22:12Alex Epstein?

  So, all, all credit to people who are willing to invest their own money to try to do this. It's not There are a number of variables that might make it succeed or not. I mean, the more you're talking about chips that are evolving very quickly on Earth, because we don't have this moon colony yet, right? You're talking about you're replacing chips every you're doing these very logistically difficult things in orbit. That tends to disfavor the energy advantage you're going to get from having the stuff in space. If you're doing something that some of these solar things work if the energy cost is high and you don't need to change a lot about it, if it can run a long time. So my view is, like, my view of solar is always, you need to recognize its strengths and limitations and use it accordingly. My

• 1:22:55Alex Epstein?

  argument continues to be on Earth with the solar that we have right now. Solar is primarily a fuel-saving technology, not a real on-demand power source. And I wrote a long article about this. And it is, if, go to alexepsine.substack.com to check it out. And so, by the way, that means that in some places, solar is a lot more valuable than others. And in particular, it's valuable in places with very high fuel costs, which the United States is not really one of those places, because we have really cheap natural gas and could get cheaper natural gas. But, like, in general, what we don't have, what the holy grail would be, is if you got solar and batteries so cheap that you could have self-sufficient solar by sufficiently

• 1:23:38Alex Epstein?

  overbuilding the panels and having multi-day battery storage. So overbuilding the panels means, let's just say, round numbers, you know, you have 100 megawatts of demand in a given location, so one tenth of a gigawatt. Well, if you overbuild it by 10, then you have a gigawatt. Well, even when the solar is fairly, the sun is fairly low, you're going to be able to meet your demand, and then you can, you can get, right. And then you can get rid of it, and then you can charge the batteries. So you have more to charge the batteries. But then, to make that work, because sun is not around at night, people really underestimate this as a problem. Night is a big, it's not as much of a problem for wind, but it's a big problem for sun. Like, night is a huge, huge, huge problem.

• 1:24:19Alex Epstein?

  So you need to then, and, you know, think about a winter day, like we had during winter storm. And even in Phoenix, you can have storms that disrupt the sun for a So you need lots and lots and lots of batteries and you need lots and lots of overbuilding. And the question is, how cheap can you get it? And China's not even nearly there yet, let alone the US. But it's not a bad path to pursue. It's not bad to pursue because batteries are valuable anyway. Batteries are valuable, number one, to store reliable power and dispatch it. Like that and Elon is in favor of that. I've said on the show before, I'm in favor of that. So it's good to get the cost of solar lower. It's good to get the cost of batteries lower. We have to recognize primarily it's a fuel-saving play, not a replacement play.

• 1:25:02Alex Epstein?

  But if you could, if we had 24/7, all bets are off. Then you get the benefits of solar.

• 1:25:07John Coogan?

  That's the mirror.

• 1:25:07Alex Epstein?

  The time.

• 1:25:08John Coogan?

  That's the space mirror.

• 1:25:09Alex Epstein?

  But so I hope that as long as we're doing it in a safe way, they should be free to try. And it's interesting, the schemes I've seen in the past haven't worked. And I don't know if they have better energy people than they used to at Meta. So we'll see.

• 1:25:22John Coogan?

  And we'll see. Well, thank you so much for coming on the show.

• 1:25:24Alex Epstein?

  All right, man. Good to see you.

• 1:25:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I wish we had more time yesterday.

• 1:25:26Alex Epstein?

  All right, anytime.

• 1:25:27John Coogan?

  Our next guest is already in the waiting room. We have Shira Lazar from What's Trending. He's the co-founder and host of What's Trending. And we'll bring her in to the TVPN Ultra Dome in just a minute. Welcome to the show. How are you doing? What's going on?

• 1:25:43Speaker 11

  Good. We're just diving in. I love it.

• 1:25:44John Coogan?

  Yes, of course. That is the nature of the show. We dive right in. Why don't we dive right in with an introduction on yourself? How are you introducing yourself these days? What can you tell us about the shape of What's Trending, the platform?

• 1:25:56Speaker 11

  Yeah, so I've been in the digital media. Yeah, sorry, I think there's a delay. But I've been in the digital media creator economy space for almost two decades. I'm aging myself. We started What's Trending, actually it was a live streaming show in 2011.

• 1:26:13Speaker 11

  So we were playing around with this tech and these tools way back. One of the first two livestream integrally high-quality way. But you know, the space in some ways wasn't ready. It was us, the young Turks at the time. Aljazira was doing a livestream and we had a weekly show. We went daily, actually, with YouTube. Oh, shoot. Am I like?

• 1:26:38John Coogan?

  What?

• 1:26:40Speaker 11

  Oh, is it? I look like I'm paused right now, but I don't know if that's

• 1:26:43Jordi Hays?

  We can hear you.

• 1:26:44John Coogan?

  We can hear and see you just fine.

• 1:26:45Speaker 11

  Okay, good. I'll continue. Welcome to tech. In the future, I'll stop by your studio. Yeah, then we went daily with YouTube and then it seemed like live, just the platforms and the audience weren't ready yet. And then we went more into on-demand, grew more as a digital media brand and publisher. And that's who we are today. And we cover news, views and culture for the social generation. And now oddly enough, like seeing your success and what you're doing, starting to rethink, like, how do we maybe go back to that? Who knows?

• 1:27:14John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:27:15Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, timing, timing is so important. I mean, there's been, like, Jason Calacanis had TBPN effectively back, I don't know, the first year that he did it.

• 1:27:25John Coogan?

  2007?

• 1:27:26Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, like, very, very early. Same, same kind of era when you started. But yeah, people need to be ready for it.

• 1:27:33John Coogan?

  Yeah. I'm interested to hear about what is changing right now, what you are tracking. I was reading a piece in the journal about sort of a K-shaped dynamic that's emerging with brands only want to partner with the biggest celebrities, the biggest podcasts, and there's sort of a winner-take-all market. Are you seeing that? Or is there a way for sort of middle class of, of creators to emerge these days?

• 1:27:59Speaker 11

  Yeah, that's really interesting. I actually think that there's two extremes of opportunities. I think that definitely people that have skilled audience and those big names that are the, the new wave of celebrity are definitely getting the deals as long as there's, I would say, conversions. And they have that fandom audience. They're the new names that a lot of brands want to partner with. And of course, these streaming services or the podcasts, like, to really have a successful, I would say, at-scale podcast or platform, you need to have, you know, that audience, that big name. However, that doesn't mean that's the only way to succeed. Right? So we're seeing, as you might know, a lot of smaller creators that have niche audiences, the B2B creators now that

• 1:28:41Speaker 11

  are becoming big, the LinkedIn creators, the knowledge creators. And they've hunkered down on a very specific audience. And they're seeing high conversions even though they don't have a skilled audience.

• 1:28:52John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:28:52Speaker 11

  And so that creates a lot of success too, where they could have, you know, or be making half a million to a million a year possibly, they're relying on brands. They're maybe having courses, they're maybe having, you know, paid events, et cetera. So what I think is really interesting right now is we are at a time that there could be opportunity for big names, but also not such household names.

• 1:29:14John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:14Speaker 11

  Uh, but again, it's really about understanding your why as a brand and what you're trying to go after.

• 1:29:19John Coogan?

  Now, do you like the term NIM cell, niche internet micro celebrity? That's been a one that's been

• 1:29:24Speaker 11

  I have never.

• 1:29:26Jordi Hays?

  I've never, I've never.

• 1:29:27John Coogan?

  You've never heard that?

• 1:29:28Speaker 11

  I don't know, that sounds like, uh, too much like an incel.

• 1:29:31John Coogan?

  Yeah, it is a weird knockoff, but I, I, I think it does capture something that is real, which is that in, it, it, there might be someone who is incredibly influential in a particular sub-vertical or industry and, and they might be a household name, gets stopped for autographs at that industry's conference, but never at a random Starbucks, right? And so this is just an interesting, uh, who, who was it? It was, uh, Colin Samir we were talking with and they said that

• 1:29:57Speaker 11

  Yeah.

• 1:29:57John Coogan?

  Something like eighty to ninety percent of the next generation, maybe Gen Alpha, is a super fan of someone that no one in their high school has heard of. So they all have individual relationships with some, someone that they're a super fan of, but they don't cross over. It's not everyone likes Tom Cruise, it's everyone likes their own individual, unique Tom Cruise or whatever.

• 1:30:19Speaker 11

  Yeah, I was talking about that with someone actually recently because it, it creates, I think, again, so much possibility, but then it's harder to figure out, like if you can just find one name that everyone knows that will have that popularity. Again, like in the past, there were how many cable channels or even before cable, you know, TV channels, the cable channels and then, um, shows that you watch, you know, we're, we have such a fragmented audience right now.

• 1:30:45John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:30:45Speaker 11

  And so there could be someone that is so popular and you might've never heard about them. And that's like the beauty of social media, uh, and the internet right now. And actually, you know, you were mentioning the middle class. I do think there's something about the middle class that is difficult right now when it comes to the creator economy. Because I see people when they're at the 1% making a ton of money. I mean, not everyone is Mr. Beast, right? And then niche creators are making a lot of money. When you're kind of stuck in that gray area, that's becoming, I would say, more and more of a challenge. Because you're getting underpriced, but then also, you know, the prices that you want, they're not necessarily being able to hit it because they're keeping that for like more of that macro creator.

• 1:31:27John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:31:27Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the other, the other, the other challenge is that there's going to be new creators that are growing, that are growing quickly, that are, that are, that are hungry, that maybe have figured out formats so the algorithms are rewarding

• 1:31:38John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:31:39Jordi Hays?

  more intensely. And if you're in that middle zone and you don't adapt quickly, you can quickly become irrelevant. I used to, I used to talk to YouTube creators that would try to, this was back in 2018, that would try to set pricing based on the number of their, the number of their subscribers. Because there was a period where you could basically say like, I have this many subscribers. Like, you can assume that at least half of them will like click through and, and, and watch the video. There was a moment like that, and then it changed pretty rapidly.

• 1:32:10John Coogan?

  Views.

• 1:32:11Jordi Hays?

  And I would, I would talk to them and be like, hey, like unfortunately, like

• 1:32:13John Coogan?

  Average views.

• 1:32:14Jordi Hays?

  You can, you can take, take your last 10 videos and take the, the average and like that.

• 1:32:19John Coogan?

  For some creators, that's higher than their subscriber base, but for a lot of creators, it's 20% of their subscribers.

• 1:32:23Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, a lot lower.

• 1:32:24John Coogan?

  It's actually where they're putting the videos.

• 1:32:25Speaker 11

  But then, you know, I think pricing is really important to talk about because, you know, I do think there's different types of creators that require different things. Like, you know, now there's a lot of the affiliate creators. And I liken that to like a QVC host, right? They're really good at selling through and having that affiliate model, and that's the only way they work, and they're really good at that. I don't think that's for everyone. And just because something works in the creator economy for a group of people, doesn't mean it needs to be the end all be all for everyone.

• 1:32:51John Coogan?

  Do not tell that to Gary Vaynerchuk. If you get him going about TikTok shop, it's over for you. He will yap and yap and yap.

• 1:32:58Speaker 11

  That's a whole other thing, like, not everyone is meant to be a TikTok shop.

• 1:33:02John Coogan?

  I agree. I agree with you completely.

• 1:33:04Speaker 11

  And then where's, wait, on that note, and I love Gary, where's Gary V's TikTok shop? I want to see him and he does. Like, okay, so TikTok shop is hot. What are you selling? I want to see you selling, which he does these moments where he'll be selling or he'll go live for a week.

• 1:33:19John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:33:19Speaker 11

  Okay, we're doing this again, wildlife on TV. And like, okay, by week two or three, he's like, okay, I have other shit to do.

• 1:33:26John Coogan?

  Yeah, no, no, a hundred percent. I mean, he, he, he does, he, I, I think part of his benefit is that he's, he's sampled from the smorgasbord of content creation and can speak to, okay, well, there, there is a gap here for some people, but not, it's not all going to be one size fits all. Uh, just like, I don't think everyone's going to be, uh, you know, doing I R L streaming in the future, even though that's having a moment. And we could see many more creators do I R L streams outside of the, the, the kick streamers and the controversial folks and the political folks. You could see that instantiated in a whole bunch of other categories, but it'll just take time to get there. We've been seeing with T B P M, people have made a, a version of this show for car dealerships or what's going on in Europe or what's going on in crypto.

• 1:34:10John Coogan?

  And there's like all these different twists on this format and that happens whenever there's a new thing, but it's not going to be perfect for every single vertical. But, yeah.

• 1:34:18Speaker 11

  Exactly. And that's why they'll jump on it because it's a trend and then there's a difference between the people that jump onto something and then build it as actually like a substantial career.

• 1:34:26John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:34:27Speaker 11

  So for instance, like, I like to say, I'm like, I'm looking at a career.

• 1:34:32John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:34:32Speaker 11

  I'm here in the digital space. It's something I'm very passionate about. And now on my personal brand, I cover creator economy trends, emerging tech, A I, even mental health. We could get into that when it comes to the digital space. But I've been now working in this space for 20 years. I get to look at trends and how they've changed and not just report on them, but I've actually lived through them. So it gives it a different approach, at least for me and an edge when it comes to my coverage. I also think just sidebar, if you're a creator or someone looking to be in the space, like I do believe as long as you get the right representation. Agents or managers are important as long as they don't take advantage. There's a lot of predatory behavior out there because they have other talent and they could see

• 1:35:17Jordi Hays?

  How much should you share with a manager, like 90%? Or where they want, or they want more? No, I'm kidding.

• 1:35:24Speaker 11

  No, no, no. Usually agents, and I'm going to say this, someone said, "Don't talk about this." I was on a panel at the NAB show last week and someone's like, "Why are you revealing?" And I'm like, "These aren't secrets. These are kind of industry standards and we needed to talk about things more and not cut people off from information." Like, I am not, I do not want to be that person. So, yeah, so agents typically take 10%, managers 20%. But, again, this day and age, managers, people are just becoming salespeople and they're saying they're managers, which is crazy. Whereas in the past, a manager would actually build your strategy and help you with your career and like, your longevity. Now they just run your email inbox. And like, that is not a manager.

• 1:36:07Speaker 11

  But, anyway, that's just my hot take on that.

• 1:36:11Jordi Hays?

  Well said.

• 1:36:12Speaker 11

  But, I think things are, you know, things are changing. What?

• 1:36:14John Coogan?

  Yeah. No, no, no, I like it, it's a good point. And I think it is important for these to, for, yeah, just the benchmarks or any sort of relative information getting out there is always good. Jordy, anything else?

• 1:36:24Jordi Hays?

  What's your outlook on clipping? It feels like the legacy media-

• 1:36:28Speaker 11

  I mean, you haven't asked that.

• 1:36:29Jordi Hays?

  It feels like the legacy media just, just woke up to this.

• 1:36:33John Coogan?

  Well, it just started. The first clip, I think, went out like last week and so that's why everyone's talking about it.

• 1:36:39Speaker 11

  The first clip from a legacy media company?

• 1:36:41Jordi Hays?

  No, no, we're joking.

• 1:36:42John Coogan?

  No, clipping's been around for years and it's now like having this big moment and it's just sort of funny to reflect on this thing that everyone's been aware of for a long time.

• 1:36:50Speaker 11

  Yeah, so I, it's interesting because I think when you Google even clipping, and I was trying to find the platform that does it, there's like two sides of clipping. It's like the, you're clipping up all your clips, obviously, and distributing them at scale across everywhere. And then there's the clipping farms, like where you can pay people to post on their platforms and try to get views.

• 1:37:10John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:37:11Speaker 11

  Those are kind of two sides of the clipping business.

• 1:37:12John Coogan?

  The clipping industrial complex.

• 1:37:15Speaker 11

  Yeah, and I find that fascinating. Like, a lot of the streamers are doing that.

• 1:37:19John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:37:20Speaker 11

  Um, I show speed and...

• 1:37:22John Coogan?

  Well, for a long time, like, Joe Rogan would be clipped, but just by people that were watching the show and were like, "This was an interesting moment."

• 1:37:30Speaker 11

  It was organic, authentic.

• 1:37:32John Coogan?

  Yeah, authentic, farm-to-table clipping. Now, you got the industrialization of clipping, and so thousands of people are being paid to clip a single streamer, and it's part of a marketing process, but it seems to be effective for people, so it is becoming a trend, and people are paying attention.

• 1:37:48Speaker 11

  And that how, like, is it clavicular?

• 1:37:50John Coogan?

  Clavicular has been a massive beneficiary of the clip industrial complex. Apparently, he has 100 people working for him.

• 1:37:57Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but it's interesting, because people, like, analyze his whole strategy, and they put, like, they seemingly put, like, 80, 90% of the, of the, of the success and the growth of his personal brand, whether you believe it should grow or not,

• 1:38:12John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:38:13Jordi Hays?

  on the strategy when, when he was a unique figure.

• 1:38:17John Coogan?

  And a controversial figure. And if you, i- i- i- if he had been saying there just, "Uh, yeah, a little bit of sleep, diet, exercise, don't worry about it too much, you're gonna be fine." And he had a billion clippers, no one would know his name. Instead, he's out there with the craziest hot takes possible, the craziest stunts,

• 1:38:34Jordi Hays?

  Saying that he's doing math.

• 1:38:35John Coogan?

  Getting in jail and stuff, like, insane stuff, and, and so the clips really amplify that, but there's a seed of virality there already on day one, whether or not the clippers are paid or not, I think.

• 1:38:45Speaker 11

  Yeah, no, that, that is the thing. So I think it's interesting as a new marketing strategy that I, it'll be interesting to see if traditional media jumps on board. I don't think they will, because they have a hard enough time building out their social strategy right now, let alone doing a whole, like, I would say clipping strategy like that. I think that definitely benefits the individual, personal brand, the person that's willing to take the risk. Again, there's still money that you need to spend on this, but if you want to become a social media celebrity, one, yeah, you need to have the basic, I would say controversial hot take and then being able to tap into this other stuff. But it's something to look out for in terms of the phenomenon of social media right now

• 1:39:29Speaker 11

  and putting more out there, right? And how do you do it faster? But then some of these, I would say, I use Opus. For instance, I know the team there. They're great if you have long form video and you want to cut it up. But some of these tools, they do need to be better. It's like you can't just throw it in and spit it out.

• 1:39:46John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:39:47Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, we tried a number of the tools early on and couldn't get any of them working. We ended up building our own internal software.

• 1:39:54John Coogan?

  Which, which helps with the, the cutting of the footage, but does not do the selection for you. The selection is still editorial, that's still human, which is interesting.

• 1:40:03Speaker 11

  Exactly.

• 1:40:04John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:40:05Speaker 11

  So, you know, a lot of creators are still worried about, or anyone about AI taking their job or this or that, which is real, which is why I think that you need to lean into like having a voice and an approach to things where you're not just being told what to do, but you can take a piece of content as an editor and be like, I'm going to make this the best it can be, like better than AI right now. I'm personally excited for when I could throw a clip in and it could spit it out for me and be awesome. We are not there yet, it would save me so much time. So as a creator, I'm excited for these tools. I am not scared.

• 1:40:38Jordi Hays?

  Clip, super intelligence.

• 1:40:40John Coogan?

  It's gotta happen. It's gotta happen. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come on the show. Have a great rest of your day.

• 1:40:45Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, great to meet you. Come back on whenever you have. I love all the spice. Come back on whenever.

• 1:40:49Speaker 11

  Oh, I will be back. Maybe I'll be in studio, it's easier and I want to have this tech. I'm just being a freeze frame right now. But thank you, I appreciate it.

• 1:40:57Jordi Hays?

  You came through loud and clear. Great to hang.

• 1:40:59Speaker 11

  Okay, amazing.

• 1:41:00John Coogan?

  Goodbye.

• 1:41:01Jordi Hays?

  Talk soon.

• 1:41:02John Coogan?

  Flashbang out. Our next guest is Anshul Gupta from Actively AI. He's the co-founder, uh, he is the co-founder and president. I think I got it right. Welcome to the show. Last minute switch. Introduce yourself and the company, please. Sorry for bringing you on.

• 1:41:18Speaker 12

  How you doing? Thanks for having me, guys. Good to meet you. Big fans of the, big fans of the show and congrats, obviously, on the. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah, a lot of folks on our team have switched from SportsCenter to you guys. So I think that's a There we go.

• 1:41:33John Coogan?

  I didn't realize we were pulling people from SportsCenter. I like that. Yeah. This is the new sport, the sport of enterprise revenue workflows. Tell us about it.

• 1:41:43Speaker 12

  Amazing. So yeah, quickly, I'm Anshul, one of the co-founders of Actively, as you guys mentioned. And we build agents for go-to-market teams and effectively are the only platform that proactively guides revenue teams on what to do next.

• 1:41:59John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:41:59Speaker 12

  And then actually helps them do it. And it's based off this notion that we built called an agent for every account. So this concept called per account agent. So the idea is as a rep, you're stretched really, really thin on all the possible actions that you could be doing to drive revenue. And so what Actively does is we've created these agents that live with every single, one agent that lives with every single account for the life cycle of that account across the funnel from, you know, top of funnel through close, through, through expansion that are maintaining all of that context and as well as guiding you on what you should be doing next and then actually doing the, doing the work, which stands in stark contrast to, you know, a lot of the solutions that require a human being to go point click to,

• 1:42:44Speaker 12

  to kind of decide what they, what they want to do. And our fundamental belief is that there's going to be, and you know, it's true with our customers, there's going to be a lot more agents than, than sellers, right? And so how do you build and plan for that world and that reality?

• 1:42:55John Coogan?

  Is software sales the beachhead? Or are you selling to car dealerships or Rolex ADs or HVAC salesmen? Like, there's so many different people that would benefit from an agent on every account, but I imagine that you'll be accelerated in certain verticals. Have you narrowed down or are you going broad?

• 1:43:15Speaker 12

  So it's a, it's a great question. I think for, for us, ultimately, you know, the ICP is very clear, which is we make revenue teams way more productive. The larger revenue teams you have, the more impact that we can make. To your point, however, the beachhead very much is within software sales, but we're starting to see organic demand from some of these other verticals, maybe not car dealerships yet, and that's, you know, hopefully a good, maybe a good thing, but, you know,

• 1:43:40Jordi Hays?

  The watch, the watch brand ADs, they could just be like, hey, I was person, tell this person they're not.

• 1:43:46John Coogan?

  Yeah, I scraped your Instagram and I noticed that you had a bare wrist when you were going swimming. Do you need a dive watch? Potentially. Talk to me about what it actually takes, because obviously you're scraping the emails, you're scraping the calendar invites and probably transcriptions, understanding what's going on with the interaction between the company. But are you also looking at like product analytics? I feel like so many times you sell a software product, they're like, great, we did the demo, cool, we were rolling it out. Yeah, it's going great. And you're like, we see that no one's logged in. We need to intervene. Is that part of what the agent's working on?

• 1:44:21Speaker 12

  Yeah, for us, we view the bright line as being very, you know, plain and clear, which is full and complete context. And so in order, if the way I try to analogize it is if I had unlimited dollars and I was a CRO, I would put one seller, ideally I would figure out a way to clone my best seller and put one seller each and every one of these accounts. And so as part of that, if they're doing their job, John, to your question, they would be looking at every single data point, which today sellers don't do because to your point, it's in so many different, different systems, right? Whether it's product analytics, calls, information that's not in your, in your database. And so our account agents are kind of becoming the sort of continuously updating source of truth across all of those different, different areas. And so, you know, because we're very enterprise focused, we

• 1:45:03Speaker 12

  have to build integrations into a pretty large, large set of kind of technologies housing this information.

• 1:45:08John Coogan?

  Tell us about the round.

• 1:45:09Jordi Hays?

  Do you track, last, last question, do you, do you track how long it takes to generate one of your customers, their first, like a dollar of revenue that you can attribute back actively? Like what, what, what, what metrics matter on your side?

• 1:45:23Speaker 12

  Yeah, it's a really good question. Yeah, I think ultimately we are in the business of helping increase seller productivity, revenue, revenue per rep. And so we track based off our account agents, sort of what are they able to, what are they able to drive and attributed kind of pipeline, conversion rates, downstream revenue expansions. But then also there's, there's some interesting org change dynamics that as a result of having these really powerful agents, we're starting to see, we work with many publicly traded companies that as they're starting to see efficiency gains, they, they can rethink their, the levels of maybe middle management that you have, the maybe the, the levels of ratios between AEs to, to, to BDRs. Because as you gain more and more efficiencies with these,

• 1:46:07Speaker 12

  with these account agents, you don't need as much in sort of those, those different, those different supporting functions. But I think like, you know, the, the other point that, that I'll, that I'll make is it's not just about the metrics that you're driving. It is a fully different way of doing go to market, right? Which is every single other solution out there only works when the human goes into it and decides, I want to do this or I want to do that. But like, what about when they're asleep? Or what if they're not thinking about asking that question? That is where, and there's a huge disparity in terms of seller performance in terms of A players in the, in the, in the rest. And so it's, it's kind of this broader transformation that we're trying to, trying to drive.

• 1:46:46John Coogan?

  Very exciting. Tell us about the round.

• 1:46:47Speaker 12

  Yep. Do I wait for the gong? Wait for the big old?

• 1:46:52Jordi Hays?

  Tell us, tell us.

• 1:46:53Speaker 12

  Forty-five million dollar series.

• 1:46:54John Coogan?

  Congratulations.

• 1:46:58Speaker 12

  Thank you, thank you.

• 1:46:59John Coogan?

  Thank you so much for coming on the show. We will talk to you soon.

• 1:47:02Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, great to meet you. Congratulations on the milestone. And we'll see you at the sea.

• 1:47:07John Coogan?

  Yeah. Have a good one. Talk to you soon. Goodbye. Up next, we have a poor of from Avoca, the founder and co-CEO, working on AI agents for the service economy, baby. Let's go.

• 1:47:20Jordi Hays?

  A lot of capital being deployed today.

• 1:47:21John Coogan?

  It is a boom time.

• 1:47:23Jordi Hays?

  Being announced.

• 1:47:24John Coogan?

  It's a boom time. Well, we are very fortunate to have our next guest. We are in the TVP in Altrudon. How are you doing? Welcome to the show.

• 1:47:32Speaker 13

  Hey, guys. I'm doing well. How are you?

• 1:47:33John Coogan?

  Thanks so much for taking the time. Beautiful background.

• 1:47:36Jordi Hays?

  We are doing great, but I don't think we're doing as good as you today.

• 1:47:39John Coogan?

  Right there. Yeah. Introduce yourself and the company, please.

• 1:47:42Speaker 13

  Yeah, so my name is Apurv. I'm the founder and co-CEO of Avoca. Yeah, we're basically building AI agents for physical service businesses, primarily, for example, home services, where we've seen a lot of traction. And my co-founder is Tyson, and we started this business together in 2022.

• 1:47:59John Coogan?

  Cool.

• 1:48:00Jordi Hays?

  2022, what did you see?

• 1:48:02John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:48:03Jordi Hays?

  What, what?

• 1:48:04John Coogan?

  Were you thinking just like SaaS and then it just got a lot better with the AI tailwind?

• 1:48:08Speaker 13

  Well, it's kind of interesting. So this kind of happened during the time that the models that created ChatGPT had come out, but ChatGPT itself wasn't yet out.

• 1:48:17John Coogan?

  Yeah, GPT-3 was getting a lot better, like 3.5 was like basically out. DaVinci, like stuff was starting to work, but it was a little bit rough, but you could see glimpses.

• 1:48:27Speaker 13

  Exactly, yeah. So this is the time when like DaVinci was out, but then you didn't really have the consumer adoption of ChatGPT yet. And yeah, during that period of time, something interesting about both me and my co-founder is that we both came from backgrounds where, so I grew up in Michigan, Tyson grew up in Pennsylvania. We basically grew up in backgrounds where our moms owned these service businesses and we actually used to do this kind of job every day where we'd have to actually be picking up phone calls, booking customers, figuring out how to properly book them and all of that fun stuff. And so we, essentially after we did that, I think when I saw AI was getting really good, I was immediately like, wait, I feel like businesses like that will have so much value and no one's really looking into it. And so we were like, what does it look like to bring value here? And we thought, let's start with the phone call.

• 1:49:09John Coogan?

  Okay. Oh, the phone call. Okay, yeah, I want to know more about just the data ingest points because you can imagine like, you know, ERPs, custom ERPs, CRMs, there's a lot of different touchpoints and you could even go into photos and 3D scans of things that are going on in the physical world. But, but where's the beachhead? Where's like the lightbulb moment for your customers?

• 1:49:35Speaker 13

  Yeah, so it's kind of like multiple phases. I would say for our customers, if you think about it, like our customers, their customers are basically just like us. You know, anytime we need like a new job for plumbing, new AC, et cetera, things like that. Um, they're coming through a lot of sources. So phone calls is actually how many businesses get most of their revenue. But then there's also like lead aggregators, some people are texting. And so Evoqua, we want to first, our first phase is like essentially responding and closing every lead. Which is like, how do we get you, any lead that's coming from like Angie's, for example, people often think of as a war room. Because now every single person's like fighting for that person. So we can have an AI that'll go respond to that lead immediately. We can have an AI that picks up every single phone call and sticks to the script, does what you need and closes that customer.

• 1:50:18Speaker 13

  Then there's kind of like a second phase, which is like, how do you, you know, figure out your capacity and get new customers? So basis, based off of what kind of availabilities and jobs you have, can you go reach out to the existing base? Who should you target to kind of, you know, fill up your board?

• 1:50:33John Coogan?

  Yeah, uh, our, our voice models add a chat GPT moment now. Uh, I had a really great experience booking a restaurant reservation at Fogada Chow, Bain Capital backed, no surprises there. But, uh, but it, but you know, like I have grown up my entire life, like do not talk to the robot. Do not reject the clanker, demand the human, press zero a bunch, but it feels like we're starting to see glimpses of magical experiences. How close are we? Have we crossed the Turing test? Do you have data on any of this? Like, how's it going on that front?

• 1:51:09Speaker 13

  Yeah, absolutely. So we have now crossed the point where like, if you wanted to, for the first 30 seconds to a minute of a conversation, people would not be able to tell that they're talking to an AI because the models have just gotten so good. But still to this day, we are not yet at like the Point where we're at with text where you could literally have, you know, minutes long conversations because eventually the AI sounds robotic. It takes like extra 100 milliseconds to respond, interrupts you when you're speaking, all those kinds of things. So we're not yet at the moment where it's like, oh, everything is gonna switch over, but we're at the moment where, in fact, you can have very good conversations. You can pick up the phone within a second and super efficient. Like these average calls actually last about 30% faster than calls

• 1:51:53Speaker 13

  that humans would take. So it's even more efficient.

• 1:51:55John Coogan?

  Okay. Yeah, that's great. Tell us about the round.

• 1:51:57Jordi Hays?

  Any, any, any of these different, is there, is there, you have roofing, HVAC, plumbing, is there a category that is more resistant to AI? Like our plumbers, like nah, I'm good. More than electricians or HVAC? Or is it, is it pretty, like, and what is general sentiment across the board?

• 1:52:19Speaker 13

  Yeah, I mean, it's a great question. So I think like, you know, the initial thought would be that, oh, people are probably not too excited about adopting AI or whatever AI is evil. But in fact, the nice part about our business is that the AI is not the main character of the job. What the main AI is doing is just making sure everything gets booked, making sure their customers are happy, making sure, you know, you're always getting new customers. But the main characters are actually the plumbers, the technicians, the, you know, HVAC guys. And so they're actually, I mean, I would split them into multiple buckets, but a lot of them are very hungry and eager to actually adopt AI right now because they already see the overhead of like, oh, shoot, I forgot to follow up with that customer. Or, oh, wow, I can't believe we dropped that customer on their phone call. And so an AI can go in and solve that. They can do their job. They're still running the show and the AI can help facilitate

• 1:53:04Speaker 13

  that. So still seeing actually really good adoption there.

• 1:53:07John Coogan?

  Cool. Tell us about the round. You raised a bunch of money. What happened?

• 1:53:11Speaker 13

  Yeah. So we actually, this is our first time going public. So we're very happy and honored to be here. We've now raised 125 million.

• 1:53:20John Coogan?

  Congratulations.

• 1:53:22Jordi Hays?

  First time going public as in coming out of stealth, right?

• 1:53:25Speaker 13

  Yeah, I mean, we were all over LinkedIn, but we had never did a single press release. And so unfortunate.

• 1:53:31John Coogan?

  Got the exclusive. Let's go.

• 1:53:33Jordi Hays?

  They're like, let's just wait. Let's just wait till we till we hit a billion.

• 1:53:36John Coogan?

  Very impressive. Very, very good, good progress. Congratulations and thank you so much for taking the time to come hang out.

• 1:53:42Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, great to meet you. Congrats on the milestone.

• 1:53:44John Coogan?

  Goodbye.

• 1:53:45Jordi Hays?

  Cheers.

• 1:53:46John Coogan?

  Up next, we have an anon joining. We have Bubble Boi. I believe Bubble Boi is in the waiting room. Let's bring Bubble Boi in to the TVPN Ultra Dome. We have some important questions.

• 1:54:04Jordi Hays?

  He's coming. He has been on an absolute tear. There he is.

• 1:54:07John Coogan?

  Bubble Boi. I like this photo of the golden retreat.

• 1:54:10Jordi Hays?

  Hello, hello, hello.

• 1:54:11John Coogan?

  Hello. Okay, so you said, yo, TVPN, put me on the show to talk about semis. I will make your listeners rich. Go. Make our listeners rich. Tell us about semis.

• 1:54:23Jordi Hays?

  Let's start like, why, why do you still have a normal job at this point? Let's start there.

• 1:54:30Speaker 14

  Yeah, so someone actually asked me this recently, and I think the answer I got was a lot of my ideas come from working on the same problems these engineers are actually trying to solve. So I really don't think I could have actually called Intel or called a lot of these other companies like Santis if I didn't have that experience and know how and expertise. So I actually think having a job is a bit of alpha, believe it or not. And I think a lot of the engineers who are actually just making a killing in this market, I mean, these are just real experts in their field. And we look at the market every day and we

• 1:55:10Speaker 14

  just see, you know, big divergences. I don't think the finance bros really understand what advanced packaging is or what yields really mean. They understand it maybe from a financial aspect, but not from a competitive standpoint.

• 1:55:27Jordi Hays?

  Rewind to a year ago, where did you think we were in the overall AI cycle?

• 1:55:36Jordi Hays?

  And where do you think we are today?

• 1:55:38Speaker 14

  Yeah, probably the start. I I I think um at the beginning of the year, at the beginning of the year, every hyperseller basically said that they're gonna spend six hundred eighty billion.

• 1:55:52Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:55:53Speaker 14

  So I mean, we're just at the start. I think we have at least three years of capex growth going crazy for my estimates. And from there, I mean, tokens are just looking like the new oil or electricity. I think uh at this point, I actually can't live my life without a token. So, yeah, I I think we're just at the start. I think um right now is really when things are gonna be going crazy. Um, if you actually look at the data center build out, we're n- nothing's actually been completed yet. We're just at the beginning.

• 1:56:27Jordi Hays?

  How do you, how do you think uh everyone having access to L L M's, you know, these incredible research partners is changing the markets? Like, does that do, do, do things get priced in faster when everyone can, can uh is maybe asking the same questions?

• 1:56:49Speaker 14

  Absolutely, and that's a good question. I just need to shout out G P T five point five, my preferred model for um, you know, stock research. I think um I I know for um sure that the number one consumer of these tokens is these hedge funds and financial institutions. Um, they are absolutely running through a bunch of research, and it allows you to get up to speed quickly. Um, if you really think about it like five years ago, if I wanted to make a bet on like chemical epoxy for semis, that would have took in six months of my life um and been a bit ridiculous.

• 1:57:29Jordi Hays?

  And then, and then, so, so share, share your post yesterday, which went incredibly viral, turned into news. You were just, you were basically just showing that you could just make up stuff on the timeline and, and I think you moved, I think you moved the market.

• 1:57:44Speaker 14

  Uh, allegedly, allegedly.

• 1:57:46Jordi Hays?

  Give us the backstory.

• 1:57:48John Coogan?

  Yeah, what happened?

• 1:57:49Speaker 14

  Um, so I was actually just researching these um chemicals suppliers, and I just realized um.

• 1:57:57Speaker 14

  You know, you could really, you could really talk to an LLM and get it to say whatever you wanted to say. So I uh, I, I just picked a random company, honestly, in Japan. And I just said, hey, try to really uh pitch this as an AI bottleneck. Sadly, it's not a bottleneck, right? But I, I think um, they're doing well either way.

• 1:58:20John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:58:20Speaker 14

  Um, they can, I mean, we're in a good place, you know, data centers will be built out. We don't need to wait for Sumitimo Bakelite to uh, get their epoxy resins to scale. But yeah, so I, I guess that's a harm. Um, people need to definitely do their own research. I've seen a lot of people just piling into things they don't understand. Um, so very interesting place to be in.

• 1:58:46John Coogan?

  What's your Intel thesis right now?

• 1:58:49Speaker 14

  Great question. I think up to this point, Intel was a top, Intel's thesis was really a fab turnaround. It was about 18A and 14A, which is coming. I think really now I've completely changed my logic. It's about advanced packaging. Advanced packaging to me is the new Moore's Law. You've kind of already seen this with Vera Rubin, um, where they can't actually do four dies on one package. They actually had to change that last second. If you look out to Feynman, I mean, this packages, the, the packaging of the silicon is a huge bottleneck.

• 1:59:30Speaker 14

  It already was a bottleneck. In 2024, in 2025, Nvidia was 60% of TSMC's advanced packaging. So everyone else was out there to fend for themselves. Um, so any kind of advanced packaging that comes to market, that allows people to scale, compute way more than I think just shrinking a node. I mean, shrinking a node is great, but the way Nvidia's timeline and I think all the hyperscalers as well, they want more HBM, they want more radical sized dies, and they all want it in one package. So that's really where things are headed towards. And I think

• 2:00:11Speaker 14

  the market's not pricing that in. I think this is a real sea change to the semi industry. This really is just happening over the past year or so.

• 2:00:21John Coogan?

  What's the story with the dog?

• 2:00:24Speaker 14

  Oh, well, this is just kind of like how I look on the day to day basis when I'm sitting at my desk. Tipping on a diet, well Pepsi in this case, but I just like to, you know, spread joy. Yeah, no, I think this is kind of like how you look when Intel beats on earnings and goes up thirty percent in a day. And you've been proven right after a year of being told you were wrong, so.

• 2:00:48John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:00:49Jordi Hays?

  Uh, what's any, any, any, uh, non-financial advice predictions for, uh, the, this tech earnings cycle? What are you expecting tomorrow?

• 2:01:00Speaker 14

  Well, I think we have SanDisk reporting soon. I think that's kind of been telegraphed that SanDisk can just increase the price of flash until the customers cry. Um, so I think, yeah, they, they will be fine. I think, uh, the other story is people think there's a CPU shortage.

• 2:01:18John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:01:19Speaker 14

  Um, I think that this is gonna be, we're gonna get a yes or no definitely in this earnings season. Um, and people actually just price up CPUs twenty-five, thirty percent. And will people take it?

• 2:01:32Jordi Hays?

  When, when you, uh, when you post a picture of your, a screenshot of your returns on X, do you ever get worried that, that it's a sign that you should, uh, at least go to cash somewhat? Or does, does it just?

• 2:01:46Speaker 14

  Absolutely not. That's never, absolutely not. I've never thought of going to cash. I, I actually took some money out last year for taxes and it was the biggest mistake of my life. Cause that money, who knows where, how much it would be by now. I see this as we have a three-year run at least, and now it's time to really pull the trigger. Uh, if anything, I'm trying to borrow money at this point to go bigger.

• 2:02:12Jordi Hays?

  And that's why they call him Bubble Boi.

• 2:02:14John Coogan?

  That's why they call him Bubble Boi.

• 2:02:15Jordi Hays?

  Used to pray for a bubble like this.

• 2:02:18Speaker 14

  Yeah, I definitely did. Yeah, and it's time to fruition, so.

• 2:02:22Jordi Hays?

  What can people, what can people expect from you? You say that having a job is alpha. I'm sure you're getting, people are trying to pitch you on new job opportunities. But what can people expect from you this year besides making a lot of calls all the time and to date often being quite accurate?

• 2:02:44Speaker 14

  I think you'll, I think I'll give a hint. You'll see me in the flash business somewhere, somehow. Maybe at a pretty established flash company and supply chain. So. I think flash is one of these technologies that I think scales a lot higher than the market expects. And I always have this joke. I say like, if you want to like change the world, you can cure cancer or you can come up with new kinds of memory. So I can't work on the first one. So I'm going to look at the number two for now.

• 2:03:17Jordi Hays?

  And would this be an early stage company?

• 2:03:19John Coogan?

  You can get exposure. Yeah.

• 2:03:21Speaker 14

  Um, potentially, or it could be really partnering with a very, very large company. So there's some advantages to both.

• 2:03:31John Coogan?

  Well, good luck wherever the future takes you and.

• 2:03:35Jordi Hays?

  This was fun. I've, I've deeply, I've deeply enjoyed your, your posting. And, and yeah, you're clearly having a lot of fun and it's fun to watch. Great to meet you.

• 2:03:48Speaker 14

  Thank you guys both. I'm a big fan of the show. So thanks for having me on.

• 2:03:53John Coogan?

  Thanks for hopping on.

• 2:03:53Jordi Hays?

  It's been an honor.

• 2:03:54John Coogan?

  We'll talk to you soon.

• 2:03:55Jordi Hays?

  Cheers, Bubble Boi. We'll talk to you soon.

• 2:03:56Speaker 14

  Yeah, bye.

• 2:03:59John Coogan?

  We should close with an example of why memory is so expensive. Uh, Star Wars meets Pawn Stars. Have you seen this video? Have you watched this, Jordy?

• 2:04:12Jordi Hays?

  I did see this.

• 2:04:13John Coogan?

  I saw the first second. I haven't watched the full thing, but I think it's probably worth it.

• 2:04:19Speaker 15

  I have items to pawn. All right, let's see what you got.

• 2:04:27Speaker 15

  Okay, so these are lightsabers.

• 2:04:29Speaker 16

  Correct.

• 2:04:30Speaker 15

  So, uh, where'd you get them?

• 2:04:34Speaker 16

  Estate sale.

• 2:04:35Speaker 15

  Estate sale? It's so funny that you can clock it by the audio more than the video.

• 2:04:41John Coogan?

  It's very weird.

• 2:04:44Speaker 16

  It is a great passion of mine. Each lightsaber has a story. A history. There is a certain thrill.

• 2:04:51John Coogan?

  Yeah, I guess the character's CGI to begin with.

• 2:04:54Speaker 16

  Reward.

• 2:04:55John Coogan?

  So it's, it's harder to clock.

• 2:04:57Speaker 15

  This is a pretty big collection.

• 2:04:58John Coogan?

  But even he's probably fully AI.

• 2:04:59Speaker 16

  I have a lung condition.

• 2:05:01John Coogan?

  Video, or maybe it's edited together, I don't know. But yeah, you're 100% right, it's the audio that's awful.

• 2:05:07Speaker 15

  That's rough, man. How much are you looking to get for them?

• 2:05:11Speaker 16

  A hundred thousand credits.

• 2:05:14Speaker 15

  Look, I'll give you 50 bucks for them.

• 2:05:18John Coogan?

  It's interesting that, uh, the, uh, like, why that's popular is because it's this mashup between two intellectual pieces of property and they're not being compensated for that. And so there's like, this thing that can only exist in the piracy world, basically. Like, if someone, if you had recreated this without leveraging Star Wars IP or Pawn Stars IP, uh, doesn't go viral, right? And so, the, the business case for AI video is still a little bit more narrow and I think it will be tucked in the tool section. I was, I was, uh, yeah, looking a lot at like the, the Aflac project that he sold to

• 2:06:01John Coogan?

  Netflix and some of the background replacements, some of the VFX stuff. Like, it feels like the way, even though this is like this, oh, it's like one-shotting entertainment, uh, it feels like the next, the next moment of like, AI in Hollywood is very much like tool-driven, uh, you know, leveraging things like, you know, green screen removal and, uh, object replacement, VFX workflows and just sort of speeding up remote, uh, like rote tasks. But, uh, people will continue to have fun with these, uh, mashups and I'm sure we'll see many more of them on the timeline.

• 2:06:39Jordi Hays?

  Uh, the other news, uh, Mike Isaac and his team over at the New York Times are in the courtroom live blogging.

• 2:06:46John Coogan?

  They went.

• 2:06:47Jordi Hays?

  They're blogging.

• 2:06:48John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:06:48Jordi Hays?

  They're blogging. Uh, it is.

• 2:06:50John Coogan?

  There's some crazy moments already, right?

• 2:06:52Jordi Hays?

  There's some crazy, crazy moments already.

• 2:06:55John Coogan?

  The judge is like doing bits.

• 2:06:56Jordi Hays?

  We'll try to put some of them together. The judge is doing, the judge is doing bits. Apparently, uh, Elon's lawyer's microphone turned off four times in the course of his opening statement.

• 2:07:07John Coogan?

  Or maybe like the screen turned off at one point. I saw some different reporting on that.

• 2:07:10Jordi Hays?

  And apparently on the fifth.

• 2:07:11John Coogan?

  There were technical issues.

• 2:07:12Jordi Hays?

  Fifth or so time, the judge says, what can I tell you? We are funded by the federal government. So.

• 2:07:18John Coogan?

  That's wild.

• 2:07:18Jordi Hays?

  She's running, she's running bits. Uh, but, uh, highly recommend going over and.

• 2:07:24John Coogan?

  Yeah, Mike Isaac has some fantastic coverage.

• 2:07:27Jordi Hays?

  Their posts are still rolling in.

• 2:07:30John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:07:30Jordi Hays?

  Uh, it's a lot to go through because it's, it's, it's hours and hours and hours of content, but we'll try to pull out some of the highlights and, and go through it on tomorrow's show.

• 2:07:40John Coogan?

  The other thing you should listen to is, uh, Patrick O'Shaughnessy had Paul Tudor Jones, one of the greatest macro traders of all time on Invest Like the Best. It's an hour and 11 minutes and you should go listen to it. So go take, uh, listen. It already has 5,000 likes, 1.7 million views, not nearly enough downloads. So go add it to your podcast player right now and, uh, enjoy that for the rest of the day. Enjoy the rest of your day and we'll see you tomorrow, 11 a.m. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, sign up for our newsletter, tbpn.com.

• 2:08:14Jordi Hays?

  Can't wait to see you tomorrow.

• 2:08:15John Coogan?

  See you tomorrow.

• 2:08:15Jordi Hays?

  Have the best afternoon of your life. We love you.

• 2:08:17John Coogan?

  Goodbye. Flashbang. Out. Goodbye.