Diet TBPN: November 4, 2025

Our favorite moments from today's show, in under 30 minutes. TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Figma - https://figma.com Vanta - https://vanta.com Linear - https://linear.app Eight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpn Wander - https://wander.com/tbpn Public - https://public.com AdQuick - https://adquick.com Bezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.com Polymarket - https://polymarket.com Attio - https://attio.com/tbpn Fin - https://fin.ai/tbpn Graphite - https://graphite.dev Restream - https://restream.io Profound - https://tryprofound.com Julius AI - https://julius.ai turbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.com fal - https://fal.ai Privy - https://www.privy.io Cognition - https://cognition.ai Gemini - https://gemini.google.com Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/tbpnLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00John Coogan?

  We are live from Silicon Valley. We're hanging out with some absolute dogs. We have some breaking news out of Sequoia Capital. They have a new set of bosses, new top dogs.

• 0:10Jordi Hays?

  Top doglar, a new generation of Sequoia stewards.

• 0:14John Coogan?

  I think Roloff probably just recently got into racing cars and he's just like, I need to go full time.

• 0:21Jordi Hays?

  I need to go all in on this.

• 0:22John Coogan?

  I gotta, I gotta.

• 0:23Jordi Hays?

  I found my real calling. Bro went out and said venture capital is return free risk and then handed over the keys. The timing is, is interesting.

• 0:31John Coogan?

  Anthropic is the new king of AI API sales. Boatload of new financials and projections below. Anthropic this summer hiked its most optimistic growth forecast by roughly 13 to 28% over the next three years and is projecting as much as 70 billion in revenue in 2028.

• 0:49Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the notable thing here is they're projecting cash flow.

• 0:52John Coogan?

  Yeah, profitable in 2027.

• 0:54Jordi Hays?

  17 billion in cash flow in 2028, not something you see from AI players outside of Nvidia.

• 1:02John Coogan?

  Remember the whole Dario idea of like each model individually is cash flow positive, but you keep having to scale up by 10x?

• 1:10Jordi Hays?

  To actually be cash flow positive at the company level, I have to imagine they would have to not do the next training.

• 1:16John Coogan?

  OpenAI's plan, spend 115 billion to then become profitable in 2030. Anthropic's plan is spend 6 billion to then become profitable in 2027. We'll be curious to see what works best in 2019. People saying Nvidia's stock is extremely overvalued. This was pre the Ethereum pump, I believe. And Nvidia's market cap was $100 billion. It was at 100 billion, then at 500 billion in 2021. And then in 2025, we now see that the market cap is 5 trillion and.

• 1:48Jordi Hays?

  This was pretty surreal to see this image surface. I'm surprised Jensen did this and allowed himself to be photographed doing it, but this was June 4th, 2024. He was signing a woman's shirt at a conference and Nvidia is up. Uh, eighty-five percent. Historically, historically, these have, these have been

• 2:11John Coogan?

  Yeah, it's crazy.

• 2:12Jordi Hays?

  Uh, top signals, but um, uh, here we are.

• 2:14John Coogan?

  Jensen has always been a rock. There's not only he put on the jacket as at, at the top, he was born in it.

• 2:19Jordi Hays?

  Korean fried chicken stocks were pumping. I am financially ruined, short selling Korean fried chicken companies. I have lost everything and I'm not sure how to continue. This week I lost four hundred and seventy-two thousand dollars, short selling Korean fried chicken companies. My idea was with the declining Korean population and the recent trend towards healthier eating and vegan diets. There's an opportunity here. Everything is gone.

• 2:42John Coogan?

  There's some debate over how impactful the chat GPT launch has been on uh, job displacement. We keep going back and forth on this. I mean, they certainly want it to get there, but it, it, that's not how people use it just yet. Like, for the most part, it is like

• 3:00Jordi Hays?

  Well, I think the notable, I think, I think something notable about like, when, when I think of the chat GPT like jobs, displacement, debate and discourse. Like I look at our company, which is like, despite a bunch of new tools popping up, we still need to hire video editors. We still want to hire writers. There's like a bunch of these different roles that this, this chart to me has always been about interest rates going through the roof. That, that, that's what, it, it just happened to almost perfectly coincide with the chat GPT launch. If you look at the growth of the S and P five hundred, like almost all the growth is driven by AI.

• 3:39John Coogan?

  Uh, if only there were some major event a year before that was important and affected interest rates and hiring trends. And so there's like the, the cultural trends around the, what, what Elon did at X that just kind of like woke a lot of CEOs up to this idea that they could run leaner. The interest rate is huge. If AI isn't displacing, but if CEOs think that AI is going to displace people or AI will be in five years, well, A lot of the reason why you hire someone isn't because you need the job done today. It's because like-

• 4:10Jordi Hays?

  I think that every CEO, even if they don't have an AI narrative, wants an AI narrative. So if you have to do layoffs, why not say, hey, we're getting a bunch of efficiency out of AI tools? And that's why we're doing layoffs.

• 4:21John Coogan?

  Michael Burry has just filed his 13F 11 days early. He has never done this before. Massive put, he's going short Palantir and Nvidia.

• 4:30Jordi Hays?

  I think in general, people continuously misunderstand the sort of like notional value versus the size of the actual portfolio.

• 4:39John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let Burry cook.

• 4:42Jordi Hays?

  I wonder if Burry wished he played himself in the big short so that all the meme, if he knew all the meme images would be shared hundreds, thousands of times a day. That's more on Palantir earnings. Q3, they did 1.18 billion of revenue, up 63% year over year. 883 million of US revenue, up 77% year over year. 397 US commercial revenue, up 121% year over year. Beating like this and then beating like this and then trading down 8% the next day is, shows that the market's a little shaky.

• 5:12John Coogan?

  The Denver-based firm sells software to centralize, manage and analyze large amounts of data. They're hiring high schoolers now. They're just like, college is pointless. We'll just hire you straight out of high school.

• 5:24Jordi Hays?

  This is rare enough to be highlighted. An actually good Financial Times article on the state of the AI race between the US and China. He put "race" in quotes. One, the fact that for a general purpose technology such as AI, long-term advantage often comes down to how widely and deeply technology is spread across society. And China has advantages here, as the article notes, since they're unarguably better at orchestrating society-wide transformation, as that's all they've been doing for the past three decades. They've got some reps in.

• 5:51John Coogan?

  The data point that I have not seen, that I would like to see is, is actual consumption of AI. Like, it's clear that they were able to catch up on creation of frontier model with DeepSeek, but how much is actually getting implemented?

• 6:08Jordi Hays?

  This is extremely ironic as the US effectively pushed China to develop models that are more efficient and open source, which turns out to be a better strategy for global diffusion. If you're a company in, say, Germany or Brazil, you can download Quin or DeepSeek, run it locally, fine tune it for your market and never worry about API rate limits.

• 6:24John Coogan?

  But does that mean that you win?

• 6:25Jordi Hays?

  The article notes, "The public in China is the most optimistic in the world about AI."

• 6:29John Coogan?

  Nvidia is a $5 trillion company. Like, if they could sell to China, how much- Like, it's not like it's a $10 trillion company, is it? Is it that big of a deal? Like, how, how, how big is the China opportunity?

• 6:41Jordi Hays?

  It's the second largest computing market in the world.

• 6:43John Coogan?

  I don't know.

• 6:44Jordi Hays?

  Depends on how AGI-pelled you are, John. Tesla was selling into China as long as, well, as long as it took for them to copy it.

• 6:51John Coogan?

  New York City is choosing between Maldani and Cuomo. And Maldani is at 95% chance. Cuomo's at 5%.

• 7:00Jordi Hays?

  Up from around 90.

• 7:01John Coogan?

  You know, there's a lot of people out there saying, smart money's on Cuomo. Maybe he'll win.

• 7:05Jordi Hays?

  I think the degenerate money is on Cuomo.

• 7:08John Coogan?

  That's probably true.

• 7:09Jordi Hays?

  Monthly performance from Canva, Wingstop, Shake Shack, a bunch of other restaurants. Most of these restaurant stocks were trading at 35 to 100 times forward PE just recently. Many still are. This is just a bubble deflating. Bubbles can't be sustained indefinitely.

• 7:26John Coogan?

  Chipotle's big bet on younger consumers is unraveling. Uncertain US economy is catching up to younger Americans. Chain has spent years cultivating a younger clientele, pitching its burritos and bowls as nutritious, protein-packed meals for gym bros and healthy eaters. What do you think, Ben?

• 7:43Jordi Hays?

  I, I used to get easily 90% of my calories from Chipotle at certain times in my life. And anytime you were like on a long drive.

• 7:49John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 7:50Jordi Hays?

  Knowing that at some point in the drive, you could pull over and have a nice, fresh, nutritious slot bowl. It was something to look forward to.

• 7:59John Coogan?

  Oh, it was amazing.

• 7:59Jordi Hays?

  Quality has degraded to such an extreme degree that it's no, I'd rather fast than any Chipotle in almost, in almost any situation.

• 8:08John Coogan?

  Chipotle's expensive now. It's over $10.

• 8:10Jordi Hays?

  I sort of look back fondly on the days when Chipotle was, felt and was a luxury. When I was like, okay, I have, I have a huge bag of rice.

• 8:19John Coogan?

  Extra, extra guac and extra meat was like, I am a king.

• 8:23Jordi Hays?

  Were you, were you like a frozen chicken breast guy? Two?

• 8:26John Coogan?

  Yeah, for sure.

• 8:27Jordi Hays?

  Cause I'd just be looking like.

• 8:28John Coogan?

  Costco.

• 8:28Jordi Hays?

  I'd be looking at the

• 8:29John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 8:29Jordi Hays?

  one pound bag of rice and the frozen chicken breast.

• 8:32John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 8:32Jordi Hays?

  Being like, again, we meet again.

• 8:34John Coogan?

  We meet again.

• 8:35Jordi Hays?

  Revenue is growing because they're, they're, they're opening new stores, but at existing stores, you see.

• 8:40John Coogan?

  They gotta go upmarket. Caviar bowls. Can I have wagyu, A5 wagyu bowl with double beluga on top? History was just made Lux Family Company and Earl Technology has just successfully flown the first ever fully autonomous fighter jet ever in US history.

• 8:59Jordi Hays?

  It is a crazy looking jet.

• 9:01John Coogan?

  The mainstream narrative is that this was created by humans. Where are all these companies coming from? We're so back, Casey Hamer has been saying like, we're not making solar in America effectively. And here's this company that's just cooking, setting out 14 megawatts of solar panels in a single day. Martin Screli is forecasting that Nvidia will get to 100 trillion in market cap. Even desk email jobs require human thought, but higher priced jobs like legal, medical, finance can also be replaced by AI.

• 9:29Jordi Hays?

  This is a nightmare post for Nvidia bears.

• 9:32John Coogan?

  This is really. Can't make this stuff up. SpaceX Starship, 2.7 billion HLS contract cost includes docking adapter. NASA Lockheed Orion, 31.6 billion cost and counting. 19 in 19 years in development, docking is an extra 2.5 billion extra.

• 9:53Jordi Hays?

  The dock's gonna be an extra two and a half. We're sorry.

• 9:56John Coogan?

  All this to be an AI note taker app, number eight, seven, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

• 10:00Jordi Hays?

  The question here is, is there a market for an AI note taker for the kind of people that Cluley is really good at marketing to? I don't think it's possible for them to make a 10x better product than Otter and Granola.

• 10:13John Coogan?

  What are college students actually using? Like what, like from what we've heard, the stack, if you want to like cheat on your homework, what is the stack, Jordy? It's actually ChatGPT Atlas. Benchmark 2020 Vintage Fund marked at an 8x Tyler Hodge has the story. They're doing just fine.

• 10:32Jordi Hays?

  I think what Ev Randall should do, new GP over at Benchmark.

• 10:36John Coogan?

  What should you do?

• 10:37Jordi Hays?

  Is 10x that fun again?

• 10:38John Coogan?

  Do you need venture capital? Call Ev Randall at Benchmark.

• 10:42Jordi Hays?

  1-800.

• 10:42John Coogan?

  1-800.

• 10:43Jordi Hays?

  Fruitus raises 150 million to power the next wave of healthy snacking.

• 10:48John Coogan?

  This is crazy.

• 10:49Jordi Hays?

  Fruitus has closed $150 million funding round.

• 10:51John Coogan?

  Huge blueberry.

• 10:52Jordi Hays?

  Led by JP Morgan Asset Management with Ray Dalio doubling down.

• 10:55John Coogan?

  We gotta try some of these for sure.

• 10:56Jordi Hays?

  Valuing the berry powerhouse at over 1 billion. The snacking company best known for its jumbo blueberries and new grab and go snack cups. Generated more than 400 million in revenue last year with blueberry sales. They gotta get an AI narrative here. This is take a simple idea and take it seriously. And sometimes the simple idea is obscenely large blueberries.

• 11:14John Coogan?

  Will I Am is in the news because he will be teaching a new class on agentic AI at Arizona State University. Hearing how Will I Am is using AI would be interesting. I am endlessly entertained by there's somebody who has a craft. Like you might not like his music, you might love his music, but clearly you know that he makes music. Like he has a process.

• 11:36Jordi Hays?

  He makes hits. Will I Am was an early investor in Tesla, pre Elon as CEO. OpenAI, Anthropic, Twitter, Pinterest, Dropbox, Hugging Face, Beats and Runway. AI generated song has entered a Billboard radio chart for the first time. Zania Monet, created by human Talisha Jones, who used Suno.

• 11:57John Coogan?

  Suno.

• 11:58Jordi Hays?

  Also signed a $3 million record deal a few weeks ago.

• 12:01John Coogan?

  That's crazy.

• 12:01Jordi Hays?

  Imagine just slopping it up and then all of a sudden you got the $3 million record deal. I would like to see an AI musician not share their real identity. And a Satoshi of music.

• 12:15John Coogan?

  Not a pop star, but a slop star. If you want to log off, if you want to touch some grass, head over to Wander, find your happy place. Book a Wander with inspiring reviews, hotel great amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, 24/7 concierge services, vacation home, but better.

• 12:27Jordi Hays?

  Like most of you guys, I didn't get into crypto to get rich. I got into crypto because I believed in the vision of 500 different stable coins issued by 500 different centralized institutions on 500 different blockchains.

• 12:39John Coogan?

  I do wonder what the stable result is. Like what is the final equilibrium? Is it just endless proliferation of new coins or is it a consolidation?

• 12:50Jordi Hays?

  You have Tether at 183 billion, USCC at 75 billion. The next largest is USDE at 9 billion. Below that is DAI and then below that.

• 13:04Jordi Hays?

  Below that is World Liberty Financial.

• 13:06John Coogan?

  I have this partially formed hypothesis that artist backlash against generative AI crystallized largely in response to text-driven user interfaces. The art world has come to accept tools like Photoshop and earlier photography itself that still shares the aesthetic of traditional art creation. If Midjourney, ChatGPT, DALL-E, etc. had interfaces along the lines of Nvidia Canvas from 2020, pictured below, I remember this tool, it was awesome. You could do that, you could draw whatever, whatever like outline you wanted and it would just automatically generate it and looked great. Palmer says, "It would look enough like existing tools that, that the critique would

• 13:51John Coogan?

  look purist and elite. Art via command line, on the other hand, looks sufficiently other that you can easily berate the users as not artists."

• 14:02Jordi Hays?

  Service Titan at $9 billion market cap on 866 million of revenue, comparing that to Harvey, which is $8 billion valuation on somewhere around 100 million of ARR. At this point, you have to believe that we're moving from a world of niche vertical SaaS to the next industrial revolution. You would not be able to underwrite Harvey like this against like the existing legal AI market. This is a bet on labor displacement. Apparently, the 200 largest law firms in the world annually provide 130 billion of legal services, so that's the top 200. So Harvey's already sitting at, you know, basically there.

• 14:41John Coogan?

  We will see you tomorrow, back in the UltraDome in Los Angeles. We'll see you then.

• 14:46Jordi Hays?

  Can't wait.