Weekly Recap: Tesla's Crazy Plan, USA vs. Google, Palantir CEO on Conspiracy Theories

(00:00) - Intro (00:05) - Cracks Emerge in Meta's Scale AI Bet (14:19) - Alex Karp (Palantir CEO) (36:57) - USA vs. Google (01:04:37) - Big Numbers: $610M for Browser Company, $1B in ARR at Ramp, $600B in Meta CAPEX, $1T for Tesla's Pay Package TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com https://ramp.com/ Figma - https://figma.com https://figma.com/ Vanta - https://vanta.com https://vanta.com/ Linear - https://linear.app https://linear.app/ Eight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpn Wander - https://wander.com/tbpn Public - https://public.com https://public.com/ AdQuick - https://adquick.com https://adquick.com/ Bezel - https://getbezel.com https://getbezel.com/ Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.com https://www.numeralhq.com/ Polymarket - https://polymarket.com https://polymarket.com/ Attio - https://attio.com/tbpn Fin - https://fin.ai/tbpn Graphite - https://graphite.dev https://graphite.dev/ Restream - https://restream.io https://restream.io/ Profound - https://tryprofound.com https://tryprofound.com/ Julius AI - https://julius.ai https://julius.ai/ Turbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.com https://turbopuffer.com/ Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://tbpn.com/ https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  You're watching, you're watching, you're watching TVB.

• 0:05John Coogan?

  Cracks are forming in Meta's partnership with Scale AI says TechCrunch it's only been since it's only been since June that Meta invested 14.3 billion in the data labeling vendor software.

• 0:15Jordi Hays?

  Invested.

• 0:16John Coogan?

  Yeah, invested. So it's not an acquisition, it's not an equity hire, it's a trade deal. It's basically a trade deal. That's how I think about it. 14.3 billion for less than half the business equity, a big dividend.

• 0:29Jordi Hays?

  49%.

• 0:30John Coogan?

  And then some of the scale people went over.

• 0:32Jordi Hays?

  They thought 49% was a nice, nice number.

• 0:34John Coogan?

  Yeah, they just pulled it out of a hat, random.

• 0:36Jordi Hays?

  It's random.

• 0:37John Coogan?

  It's just random. And so several of the top executives left Scale to go run Meta Superintelligence Labs, that's MSL, but says TechCrunch, the relationship between the two companies is already showing signs of fraying. At least one of the executives was getting brought over to help run MSL. Scale AI's former senior vice president, Gen AI Product and Operations, Ruben Mayer, has departed Meta after just two months with the company. Two people familiar with the matter told TechCrunch, Mayer spent roughly five years with Scale AI across two stints in his short time at Meta, according to these sources. Mayer oversaw AI data operations teams but wasn't part of the company's TBD Labs, the core unit with in Meta tasked with building AI superintelligence, where top AI.

• 1:22Jordi Hays?

  You think they made MSL and TBD and like the?

• 1:25John Coogan?

  Just to confuse TechCrunch reporters.

• 1:27Jordi Hays?

  Just to confuse?

• 1:28John Coogan?

  Yes, yes.

• 1:29Jordi Hays?

  Journos.

• 1:30John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah. It's entirely the 4D chess that's going on. And so after this, after this article was published, Mayer reached out to TechCrunch and was like, hey, you got the story wrong. My job was to set up the lab with whatever was needed rather than data, and I was part of TBD Labs from day one, rather than being excluded from the core AI unit. Mayer also clarified that he did not report directly to Wang and was very happy with his Meta experience and was leaving for a personal matter. So.

• 1:57Jordi Hays?

  So again. It's hard to read too much into this article.

• 2:01John Coogan?

  But the bigger, the bigger question is like, like TechCrunch has their angle. And then the timeline was kind of in turmoil. I feel like the timeline's always been rooting against Alex Wang. And there's a few reasons. So I wanted to go through like the bear case for just the question of like, was Meta buying Scale AI the right move? Like, did they overpay? Will we look back on this as a great deal? Because when we look back on Instagram, we're like, that's one of the greatest acquisitions of all time. WhatsApp, also a great acquisition, very expensive at the time, both very expensive at the time. Even Oculus, I was thinking about it and I was like Oculus VR, super expensive, multi-billion dollar deal. And the level of headset adoption, I mean, they didn't even have like a consumer product at that time. It was like dev kit still.

• 2:45John Coogan?

  And obviously retention was super low. People would churn off of them and they still do, even what, a decade later? Like, but you-

• 2:53Jordi Hays?

  But it was very important to Zach.

• 2:54John Coogan?

  Yes, and, and, and VR is a tech wave that's going to, that's going to happen at some point. Like, we know that the technology is going to get there where-

• 3:04Jordi Hays?

  Zach's not gonna miss the next platform.

• 3:06John Coogan?

  He has his surfboard and when that wave come, he's, he's ready to surf. Did you get any surfing in this weekend?

• 3:11Jordi Hays?

  I did, I did, I did, I-

• 3:13John Coogan?

  Describe your surfing experience. Can you do like 360s off the back and stuff? Can you do a backflip?

• 3:19Jordi Hays?

  No, no backflips, but, but I went surfing with a, with a TVPN, a technology brother, Steve, founder of Clock Tower Capital. And he saw me, he saw me do a couple airs.

• 3:32John Coogan?

  You could do airs?

• 3:33Jordi Hays?

  I didn't land either of them, but uh-

• 3:36John Coogan?

  You were telling Speeder like he has to get barreled. Did you get barreled?

• 3:39Jordi Hays?

  It wasn't barreling this weekend.

• 3:40John Coogan?

  It wasn't barreling this weekend.

• 3:41Jordi Hays?

  But it was, it was, it was, it was fun. There was definitely swell. I got quite sunburned a couple of days in a row.

• 3:47John Coogan?

  It's fantastic. We should one day, stream your, uh, stream your surfing endeavors and we should do it on Restream. One livestream, 30 plus destinations, multi-stream your audio, wherever they are. People have been asking, will TVPN expand to other mediums? Will you do other things? And it's like, yes, surfing livestreams, that's what's next. And you, if you're surfing and you want to livestream.

• 4:10Jordi Hays?

  Head over to Restream.

• 4:12John Coogan?

  There's a bunch of questions in the chat we should get to at some point, but let's keep talking about this Scaly AI stuff. So Zuck has a surfboard with Oculus VR. The question is, what's going on with Scaly AI? Because it's not necessarily an obvious compounder, where like with Instagram and WhatsApp, it's like you have this network effect, it's just going to keep growing, keep growing, keep growing. You can grow the user base, the user base never goes down, the business never gets smaller. You just run more and more ads and it just prints, prints, prints, right? Buying a growing social network that has strong product market fit, easy, easy to justify at any price, basically.

• 4:51Jordi Hays?

  Well, Elon wanted to get out at one point.

• 4:54John Coogan?

  Okay, anyway, for the most part.

• 4:56Jordi Hays?

  But if you can buy it and then lever it up and then merge it with a foundation model lab.

• 5:01John Coogan?

  Yes. So Scaly AI does not have that obvious like winner take all network effect.

• 5:06Jordi Hays?

  Had very real competition.

• 5:08John Coogan?

  Extremely real.

• 5:09Jordi Hays?

  Surge, which is, which was the bootstrap Scaly AI that was printing money. Merckor, which was emerging.

• 5:16John Coogan?

  Isn't there another one, Garrett at Handshake?

• 5:18Jordi Hays?

  Handshake, Labelbox.

• 5:20John Coogan?

  There's a ton of these companies.

• 5:21Jordi Hays?

  There's a bunch of players.

• 5:21John Coogan?

  And so the reason is because it is not a monopolistic market by default. You might be able to make it one, but it's, it's tough to justify. It's tough to think that, oh yeah, it'll just continue to compound. And then also if you're AGI-pelled, you don't believe that basic data labeling tasks are going to be done by humans in the future. Like if you have a bunch of tasks that are like, oh yeah, like just, you know, what do you go to Scaly AI for? Oh, RLHF this, tell me if this is a good answer. Like if you're AGI-pelled, do you think that the next version will be able to do that level of task? Like perfectly?

• 5:53Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. And the, the expectation if, if scale had stayed fully independent would be that they would keep having to like bet the company on these new sort of like. Eras.

• 6:04John Coogan?

  And that's and that's sort of the story. I mean, Scale started as a data labeling company for self-driving cars. And then eventually, that kind of hit takeoff where there was not that much more business to for Scale to do, I believe, because Waymo had gotten all of the data and Cruise had gotten the data and Tesla had gotten like the the base level data. And then the RLHF boom and the LLM boom happened and and Scale was able to move over to that. And then all of a sudden, they were having their best their best years ever. And so the business was kind of like up and down very much like, oh, they have a second act. Do they have a third act?

• 6:39Jordi Hays?

  Chunky.

• 6:39John Coogan?

  Chunky, yeah. Very high, high volatility. And so as the market shifts and more and more expert, like, like, as it shifts to more of these expert data collection processes, like what we see from Merckor, Scale potentially becomes less and less relevant. It's not like an obvious just beneficiary of every next wave. You have to keep kind of reinventing the company. And so.

• 7:03Jordi Hays?

  And they at some point, they stopped working with OpenAI, correct?

• 7:07John Coogan?

  Yes. Yeah, they stopped working with OpenAI and then and then post.

• 7:11Jordi Hays?

  That's part of what created the opportunity.

• 7:12John Coogan?

  Post meta deal, it seemed like Microsoft and and Microsoft and Google both pulled back from working with Scale. And so like, the core Scale business doesn't seem like it's just like endlessly compounding. So you really can't underwrite this like $14.3 billion investment purely on the basis of Scale's business.

• 7:31Jordi Hays?

  But they're not trying to make money on the investment.

• 7:33John Coogan?

  Yeah, maybe. Yeah, it seems like they need a mad scientist for their lab. And every other AI lab.

• 7:39Jordi Hays?

  Or they need a deals guy.

• 7:40John Coogan?

  Yeah, or a deals guy, exactly. So OpenAI has Mark Chen, SSI has Ilya, DeepMind has Demis, Anthropic has Dario. Each leader has a different shape and style, but they're all capable of rallying top AI researchers and building teams of missionaries. Alex Wang is unproven here. So if you believe that the best talent magnet wins, it seems like a bad deal. And that's kind of the bear case. Now, the bull case is that. Yes, Meta buying Scale AI is a bit pricey, but ultimately was a good decision for the company. Here's why. Let's review the landscape of big tech's AI efforts. Google has DeepMind firmly on the frontier. Microsoft has GPT-5, also frontier. Amazon's a bit behind, but the core business doesn't seem very threatened by LLMs.

• 8:24John Coogan?

  Nvidia benefits from basically every outcome right now. Apple acts as a window into AI, probably not too threatened. Meta feels like it could benefit hugely from getting to the frontier, but it doesn't have an obvious dance partner. So what do you try and do? You go down the list and you try and buy every company or hire every researcher you can. Hence the rumors that Zuck tried to buy SSI, tried to hire Mark Chen, et cetera, et cetera, right? Because it's super high. I mean, we saw that image of like some Wall Street investment bankers like did like a kind of some of the parts valuation of Google. And just DeepMind was worth like $150 billion, right? And so if you're thinking like, okay, if I have my lab and it's adding all this value all over the place, like, is that worth $200 billion to my market cap? Like, absolutely, right?

• 9:10John Coogan?

  And so you try and do that. So at the top of the list, you have something like, you know, assemble a dream team, get Ilya, Mark Chen, Demis, get everyone. Just put the OG OpenAI team and the DeepMind team together at Meta and like you win, right? But that's obviously not on the table. There's a bunch of reasons why you can't make that happen. There's economic reasons, there's interpersonal reasons, there's some ideological reasons. But Alex Wang isn't that far down the list. And so, yes, he hasn't led a real AI lab that's trained a popular big foundation model. But if you look at his trajectory, all of a sudden it becomes, I can be a lot more optimistic about it. So he's 28 years old. He's a fantastic communicator.

• 9:53John Coogan?

  You've seen him on every podcast and he clearly communicates very well about.

• 9:58Jordi Hays?

  He's been on Theo Von, one of the few AI heavy hitters that's been on Theo Von.

• 10:02John Coogan?

  You know, you joke, but he was on Theo Von really early and he tells a very convincing story and is actually able to communicate to like, to both insiders and outsiders, I think.

• 10:14John Coogan?

  He's genuinely been at the center of the AI boom for his entire career, but he wants to go bigger. He's built a great company that easily could have cash flowed hundreds of millions of dollars over time and continued to serve the training data market. But getting further into the action that's happening at the big labs was probably not in the cards if he stayed at scale. And so teaming up.

• 10:32Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, and people would push back on that and say that that scale was losing real market share to Surge and other players who had a reputation for having higher quality data.

• 10:46John Coogan?

  Losing market share, but still like so many big contracts that if they just went like like to like weaker and weaker clients and just like held on and just had high margins like.

• 10:56Jordi Hays?

  Built to die.

• 10:58John Coogan?

  Basically, like I, I, I do think like the, the like the run out the clock value on that company is definitely like hundreds of millions of dollars every year. It's just such a big market. But that's clearly not what, what Alex wants to do. He's 28. He wants to go bigger. He loves being at the center of AI and wants to work on interesting, huge problems.

• 11:16Jordi Hays?

  Now he has, will have, does or will have more compute than pretty much.

• 11:22John Coogan?

  Pretty much everyone, like the latest cluster that Zuck's trying to build is, is, is supposed to be just a couple percent over the next biggest cluster. So he will have the biggest. And so

• 11:34John Coogan?

  I think that you, when you look at, at Alex Wang, you see someone who's been through like the Gartner hype cycle of training data, right? It's like, wow, we are teaching cars to drive. This is incredible. Then, oh, wait, like they actually don't need that much more data. And then like, oh, wait, like LLMs need incredible amounts of RLHF data? And then like, oh, wait, so he's been on the up, up and down. He's, so

• 12:05John Coogan?

  there's, there's a bunch of different takes here, but let me continue. So there's also the rumor that Scale AI isn't fully delivering all the data that MSL needs to train their next model. But the reporting here is a bit questionable. I don't think that the Scale acquisition was ever fully underwritten against the value of the training data business, as we discussed. AI race is so aggressive that every company is grabbing every possible resource. Not only is Meta using other data providers, they also just signed a $10 billion cloud deal with Google.

• 12:33Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 12:33John Coogan?

  So this idea of like, oh,

• 12:35Jordi Hays?

  Demand is outstripping supply.

• 12:37John Coogan?

  Yeah. Oh, they did one deal with scale that that means that they shouldn't do a deal with Merck or they shouldn't do a deal with with Serge. Like, no, they're going to do deals with everyone.

• 12:46Jordi Hays?

  I think all, yeah, all it says is that it was primarily an act like an aqua hire.

• 12:52John Coogan?

  Yeah, an aqua hire of the team and a bunch of the people and mostly it's a bet on Alex Wang. And so I think that the the FUD over the departures is overstated right now. It doesn't seem like it's an exodus. They hired a ton of people. There's been rumors that like one person was thinking about leaving, but then wound up staying. And then and then one person left, but they said they were like never really planning to stay. And then another person left, but clearly to start a company. So it doesn't seem like there's some sort of massive exodus. And basically it just comes down to the value of developing an in-house AI team that's like DeepMind.

• 13:30John Coogan?

  It's a that that team, if it works and if they build it out, the value of that team is immense, probably in the hundreds of billions of dollars. And so there's inevitably going to be bumps in the road. But at the end of the day, Zuck is just betting on the most successful entrepreneur that Gen Z has produced thus far. And it seems still reasonable that even if he's not entirely a researcher, he's deals guy. You have him and then you have Nat Friedman, who's able to who's worked with Ilya. And you have the pieces of the team to put together the right amount of researchers and engineers to actually go and and build out a frontier capability or near frontier.

• 14:09Jordi Hays?

  It's an all-star team.

• 14:11John Coogan?

  It's close to an all-star team. It's not the all-star team. Like, the all-star team is Ilya and Demis and Mark Chen, but like, that's not happening. It's just never going to happen.

• 14:21John Coogan?

  What is the big announcement from today is are you?

• 14:26John Coogan?

  Are you trying to tell more of a story around enterprise with this?

• 14:30Alex Karp?

  You know, we're kind of not, we're, I think, we're just.

• 14:36Alex Karp?

  It's more like we're crushing it. Uh, uh, everyone tells us to be super modest about 93% growth in the U.S. and 94 rule of 40. They, they may be redefining the rule to like, make sure the other people don't like have to live in shame. I keep seeing these articles like in the Wall Street Journal. It's like rule of 40 isn't real. It isn't really, yeah, it's real because we're like crushing everyone. You were forced to be humble for a really long time. I was forced, well, people were showering me with humble nuggets all day. It didn't really exactly work. But you know, I, I do think you have to judge humility by the delta between performance and ego. And I would say somewhat ill modestly, I'm the most humble I've ever been.

• 15:22Alex Karp?

  And, uh, and, uh, and, uh, and, uh, and now, and I just, I think it's like, so what we try to accomplish with, uh, the, we've been doing these kind of conferences forever, basically because everything we've done at Palantir is like completely, it, it's antithetical or at least orthogonal to what you would, how you would build a business. You guys look, look at a lot of businesses. You would never build a software downstream from value creation. It's all basically, how do I make the client feel like they're getting laid when they're getting fucked? That's the whole way you build a software business. And our business, we began in the beginning, I used to tell people, you know, this is, we're a mutually servicing business. Both sides should like be happy.

• 16:05Alex Karp?

  And, uh, and the way we built the business was it basically underlying metric I always thought was, you know, the logic of software should be, we charge you something downstream of, of, of value creation. That sum is a percentage of the value you create. It's better for both sides because it's, uh, it's, it's, it's significantly less than the value creates. Good for us because there's a multiple on the value. The flaw in the logic was always that FDE model would basically, uh, mean that you'd get a one multiple. So we were structurally misaligned with everyone in finance, everyone, not at the founders fund, but basically everybody else because of that. Now, what we've proven with ontology, uh, FDE structures. Where FDA are actually technical and internal orchestration, which is largely artistic.

• 16:50Alex Karp?

  It basically was now, we got very lucky because without large language models, this would not be hypercharged. So it still didn't exactly make sense, but low and behold, we have large language models, it hypercharges everything. So downstream value creation is an enormous amount of money.

• 17:04Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 17:04Alex Karp?

  And because of our unit economics now, which are, you know, and some people believe are the best in the world, we actually get fairly valued. And what are we doing actually downstairs is we're saying America's central advantage is the plasticity of how we approach the pragmatism. Right. So businesses have to move from businesses where it made sense to have parasitic software products that are like basically helping you say, it's like one of these things. It's like you believe you're learning to sell. They're selling you on something that is that you can't get rid of. You then run to Wall Street and say, our clients all, we have 50,000 clients that all hate us. They're like, great. That's a software business because the hating means they can't

• 17:41Jordi Hays?

  But a platform business means that you're creating more value than you capture.

• 17:46Alex Karp?

  Well, the way we do, the way we sell is like, and this is why it just all is like, all these things are hugely contradictory. Our revenue is going up, our sales force is going down, the number of people we plan to have in the future is less than now. We are very focused on, you know, everybody's like high volume. The volume makes up for, you know, the fact that revenue decreases per client. We're not focused on that at all. We believe we're going to make more from people in the future than in the past, sizably more because it's like, why should we not capture a part of the value that we help create? Actually, it doesn't have to be the majority. In fact, it's usually the minority of the value you create. We also believe that if it from more kind of like kind of architectural implementation, technical perspective, the value is in high fidelity data

• 18:26Alex Karp?

  captured in ontology with FDEs and where there's an enhancing factor with LLMs. And that, that's going to be very, very hard to replicate. But, but, but again, all of this is kind of very non-traditional. And so what we're really doing in these conferences is saying the same thing we say on the outside. Don't believe anything we're saying. Talk to other people who have done it. We're not, we don't chaperone the people here. So they're like, you can talk about things you like, things you don't like, people are on stage, but learn how to build the business of the future. What does the business of the future look like? Actually, the interesting thing is workers become

• 19:08Alex Karp?

  more valuable, like actually trained workers become more valuable. This is exactly the opposite of what people are saying, but it's true.

• 19:15Alex Karp?

  Person at the top is actually crazy valuable. People with technical expertise are crazy valuable. And everything else is going to be done in foundry ontology and something like an FDA. So like the orchestration of the business is completely different.

• 19:30John Coogan?

  Where are Fortune 500 companies getting screwed by these AI pilots? We saw this stat, like 95% of AI trials in the enterprise aren't converting. Like, what's going on there? What does it look like when somebody sells someone?

• 19:42Alex Karp?

  Well, I mean, there's a technical reason. These are LLMs are probabilistic. They're not precise. The, the value of LLM is when it's essentially in an ontology wrapper. Because to, to, to actually create value, you have to be able to take the output, serialize it and deserialize it in the context of the business. So the logic, actions and security of the business and its tribal knowledge and what it's trying to accomplish. LLMs are vertically crucial, but the, but, but the error bound is very, very, very narrow. And the way you actually do LLMs in the real world, not in theory, not is like, is that you essentially put them in a concatenated chain where each single thing has to be done as a street unit.

• 20:24Alex Karp?

  Because otherwise the underlying math is 95 times 100 separate chains. It's like totally unreliable. And if you do it any other way, you're getting a steak dinner. And that steak dinner is super tasty. It's not going to work. And even worse than the steak dinner, honestly, is that you're being taught how to do something incorrectly. It's like, it's like, okay, I'm going to learn how to learn from a wokester.

• 20:47John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 20:48Alex Karp?

  Great, great. The, the damage that wokesters doing mostly on the left, but occasionally on the right. The real damage they're doing is they're teaching you how not to learn. Like, and if you just pick your favorite person, right, left, center, who's just selling complete garbage. It's all conspiracy, the whole thing. Yeah, it's like, it's like, it's like, there's no such thing as building. There's no such thing as agency. You can get away with that BS. Well, if you want to, like, Palantir has lifted, one of the things I'm proudest about in the world is we've lifted people from their mom's garage to their own house, millions of people. You want to stay in that garage, you listen to those people. And it's the same thing happens in enterprise. There's Telling you something where you think you're getting laid and you're getting fucked. And that, once you're fucked like that, it's very hard to undo it.

• 21:32Alex Karp?

  And like, yeah, you know, the crazy thing about my life is I'm like this wacky dyslexic. It's actually much harder to be dyslexic, but it's also much harder to get fucked. Because you don't believe, you don't, but you don't believe in any of this BS.

• 21:43Jordi Hays?

  So speaking, speaking of sales, there was a, the CEO, founder CEO of a CRM company that was making some comments yesterday. Did you, did you catch?

• 21:52Alex Karp?

  I, look, Palantir, we structurally mind our own business and I love that everyone minds our business. But I would say that what I, we constantly have people on TV. It always sounds like, you know, the guy in high school who's like, but I'm so nice, why don't I get laid? It's like, it's literally like, it's the same thing. I'm so nice, I'm so nice. I create all the value and I am so nice. I'm begging to get laid and no one was like, I have such a big this, I have such a big that. And we're like, yeah, we're not trying, dude, we're here, you know, and yeah.

• 22:23Jordi Hays?

  I don't think about you at all.

• 22:24Alex Karp?

  And it, well, I, it, it, it's like, we are very focused on value creation. And we ask to be modestly compensated by that value. And you know, if you disagree, you're like, you don't like us as a client or you love us as a client, but you think it's like, great, we're doing our thing. You know, at Palantir right now in the US is the market that counts. We don't have the people, we don't have the time. We orchestrating completely perfectly at Palantir, which of course we don't do. Is we're like an artist colony, right? We don't have a time to like actually focus on like what we need to like extending certain components of ontology we have to do. Um, extending Maven for the sake of the West.

• 23:06Alex Karp?

  Building things in classified environments, uh, extending things with high value. It's like, yeah, we're focused on that and we don't have the time. Like when you're growing 93% off of a very serious base with a de facto de minimis. Yeah. It's not, yeah, it's the 93 and that's not even our best number. It's 94% rule of 40. It's like, and then people, then people are like, oh yeah, yeah, well, but we have all the skills. We have all the motion, but, but like somehow our ocean isn't working. It's so big, but it's not, it's like, yeah, great. You have problems to, you have time to focus on us. We got things to focus on here that are crucial.

• 23:45Jordi Hays?

  You guys are, it feels like you're reacting to the changing world and actual like customer needs, whereas other players are reacting.

• 23:54Alex Karp?

  Let me give you, let me give you a more kind of slightly philosophical economic thing. What the large language model does, models do in combination with ontology and FTEs and knowing what you're doing, is it creates periodic optimality over time. We're not there exactly, but every single tech company in the world is going to be paid based on value creation. Maybe that's not completely true today. It will be true tomorrow. So when any company is saying something, you really have to ask, given that the aspiration of LLMs are transparency and competence, broadly defined, they've actually, the big cultural shift on enterprises, people running enterprises believe that this thing should

• 24:35Alex Karp?

  work. I should know the cost of the components in my business to the second. I should know how to rebuild things if there's a systematic economics issue. I should be able to put the bomb on your head and not on his head. Okay, so that basically means every conversation in the future is going to be, I, you create X value, I'm going to pay you Y. And the central problem, a lot of the larger, kind of less agile, sclerotic companies have is, it's like, they can't, it's very hard to move from, I get paid because you can't get rid of me, to I get paid because you could get rid of me, but you don't want to because you're creating so much value. But that's where the future is going. And like, people talk about like, you know, how are we going to, you know, get, do 10x in revenue, blah,

• 25:20Alex Karp?

  blah, blah, with the same or less people. It's like, yes, but the whole market's going to have to move to value creation. And we're in the business of that and try to do it. You know, it's not.

• 25:29John Coogan?

  Yeah. Do you think long-term that the gross margins of software companies will change materially because of like LLM inference costs, like token factory of costs, that type of thing?

• 25:39Alex Karp?

  Well, you mean like enterprise software companies?

• 25:41John Coogan?

  Yeah. If I, if I look at like the Fortune 500 right now, there's like a set number of gross margin that's out there. Should we expect like gross margin compression based on AI bills, basically?

• 25:53Alex Karp?

  Well, first of all, I think, let me just give you the trends. I think, first of all, skilled workers are going to become more valuable. You're going to be paying them more. They're going to be happier. It's exact downstream politically, it's very hard to argue for anything but high in demigration. So like, why do you need more people? Like, we got to make the people we have here work. So like, politically, it's like, like, you know, I'm an unhappy Democrat, but running around saying, oh, crime isn't an issue when everyone knows crime is an issue is like, it's like suicidal BS, and no one believes it. And now that wokeism is luckily mostly, at least in that way, you know, not as punishing, we can all just admit the obvious. So like, transparency is going to be like, so the people are like, workers are going to become more

• 26:34Alex Karp?

  expensive, the overhead's going to become less. Truly, basically, artist-shaped people are going to be incredibly valuable, and they're going to demand to be very highly paid. So, but the aggregate cost structure will come down, but more importantly, the products you build are going to be much closer to what the market wants in real time. And then, again, just an obvious thing, this is happening, like, we have 10x growth in America compared to Europe. Same people, same product, same everything. So it's like, and then I, the other thing, the point that's a little less obvious that I think people ignore is, time is not time. We always assume a minute of time is a minute of time. It's not. Like, it's like, from the time you want to do something to the time it happens, if that's 10% of the time, you've just got a 10x. So it's like, you know, it's like, pound tiers, not these kind of atrophied companies, they really,

• 27:19Alex Karp?

  they, every, it takes them three years, five years to get a year. It takes us a week to get a year. So it's like, you know, it's like, that's actually what explains the numbers in a weird way is, yes, but what if five years represents 40 years? What if I'm saying in the next five years, not, we're actually, it's like, the whole problem with the DCF model, actually, that experts love, is A, they don't understand product. And then B, they kind of extend the DCF if they like you. So it's like, oh, I like the person, the DCF is super long. Yeah, it's like, give them an extra decade, steak dinners. But the real problem that they somehow don't understand in the DCF model is a year is not a year for pound here. Like, a year is like, we don't do holidays, I'm working all the time, I'm working, honestly, I sometimes hate the enemies of pound here, but god, do they get me to go back to orchestration, because I'm like, I'm gonna fuck these people.

• 28:04Alex Karp?

  Like, like, you know, and, and the basic way I'm gonna do it is, you know, going back to like, dyslexic, you know, like organization orchestration of we're gonna have the best products, the best people. I'm gonna recruit those people. I'm gonna make sure they're the most valuable and I'm gonna put them in enterprises that value us. And if you don't value us, go, go work, go, go work the people that hate us. Try them out.

• 28:24John Coogan?

  Yeah. Do you have advice for young people? I mean, you said like artists like people, not literally artists.

• 28:29Jordi Hays?

  Again, you said, you said the company is like an artist's colony.

• 28:32John Coogan?

  Yeah. Become an artist.

• 28:33Alex Karp?

  Yeah. Well, people underestimate like their artistry because like from a young age, you get huge benefits for conforming and you can say, well, I don't, I mean, the central advantage of being dyslexic, we can't conform. So that was, that ends up being a huge, because you just can't. So you're gonna have to, so your basic thing you have to emerge, do not conform. And by the way, the people who are telling you simplistic bullshit, that means, you know, like meritocracy isn't gonna matter. You're not gonna judge all these conspiracies. It's, you can't do wealth accumulation if you're in this country, like in America, that, that I think actually a lot of these things are true in other countries. But in this country, they're teaching you how not to learn, how to be complacent, how to give up your agency, how to fail and how to blame it on anyone else. And if you're, so you have to say it's like all that.

• 29:18John Coogan?

  Reject that.

• 29:18Alex Karp?

  Yep. Reject that, that's kind of, and then you have to really, really look at people and judge them by their fruits. The best way to learn is to look at somebody and say, okay, well, you know, it's like, you know, you work with somebody like the co-founding team at Pounder. So you have Peter, Joe, Steph and Nathan. Like part of what made us so good is it's like, okay, you can measure yourself. It's like, you know, when I started at Pounder, I actually just, because I just wanted to be left alone. I was like, yeah, I'm gonna make some money. I'm gonna move to Berlin. I'm gonna live a debaucherous life. That was my goal. Like I'm moving to Berlin. I, I thought I needed 250K. I was like, a 250K is a minimum, a million dollars a maximum. I'm moving to Berlin. It's like debauchery forever.

• 29:58Jordi Hays?

  Burgheim.

• 29:58Alex Karp?

  And yeah, uh, yeah, well, I had to like, yeah, so it's a. And then

• 30:03Jordi Hays?

  Set up a remote office there.

• 30:04Alex Karp?

  But like you then measure yourself and it's like, okay, well, I'm highly differentiated on measure, on managing complicated people who have to believe their opinion is their opinion, but still have to build a product that actually delivers value. That's my differentiation. And so like you, you surround yourself and then remember, you have to remember the persuasion, being persuasive and being right are not correlated. So you have to really look at people who are historically right, rebuttably, give them the rebuttable presumption that they are right and work back to discover if they're right or wrong. Not just, and like, and all these things, and like, for example, on the Palantir thing is a great lesson. Go listen to our critics, whatever critic you love.

• 30:49Alex Karp?

  We're a conspiracy theory, so like you could take the left wing version, which is like, Palantir is stripping you of your civil liberties, which some people on the right believe. Palantir is a Jewish conspiracy run by a mutt somehow. Okay, whatever, you know, it's like, okay, well, go, actually, how does the product work? Does the product protect data? How does it protect it? Is it better than any other company in the world is doing this? How do you build a company? Do you think it's just like an allocation based on a conspiracy? Why did we work?

• 31:17Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, just pick your conspiracy and that's the strategy.

• 31:19Alex Karp?

  And then, and then, but then unpack it and learn for yourself. Like, did this work? How did this work? How did they do it? Assume that at every single decision, if it was a decision anyone else would have made, you would not have worked because that's a commodity. Commodities aren't valuable. And then apply that to your life. What part of this do you understand? Like, you know, what part do you not understand? What part do you understand better than them? What part could you do better than them? And the weird thing about LLM ontology foundry is this actually will work for anyone watching this podcast. If you're watching this podcast and you enjoy this, you've already passed the test. I don't care whether you're a welder, a plumber, a carpenter, an astrophysicist, or a somebody

• 32:02Alex Karp?

  who'd like to build a business, or just want to get rich, or you want to get enough money and move to somewhere and do what I want to do.

• 32:08Jordi Hays?

  Move to Berlin.

• 32:09Alex Karp?

  It's not the right place anymore. But any case, but, but you've already Pass that test now go out and pass the test for life.

• 32:15John Coogan?

  Yeah, well, you said Germany is not the right place anymore. Like, what is your current mental model for the state of the world order? Like, is, is, is America in decline? Do we need to bring things back? Like, who are the power players?

• 32:27Alex Karp?

  America is power pair number one right now. And like all this media BS, it's like, you know, you got to compare America to, and you can't compare America to some thing you're pretending in your head could be America. Compare it to Europe. Yeah. Compare. I don't know. Were you going to compare it to China? Like, you want to have no rights? You know, I mean, again, I'm actually not anti-Chinese culture, but CCP, you know, it's like, compare it to Europe, but like, no tech industry. Everyone rich was born rich, basically, or with almost no exceptions. The most important Germanic company, I hope someone from Germany is listening to this. Kommt aus Palo Alto is Peter Thiel und ich. It's like the only German company since SAP that's real.

• 33:09Alex Karp?

  They won't listen to us. Like, just think about that. You have Peter Thiel, like, the most important venture person maybe that's ever lived. Co-founder of Palantir, and you have me. It was like somewhat, you know, basic, partially dramatic, did my PhD in German. And you have no tech industry. Wouldn't you have us on fucking speed dial?

• 33:26John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 33:27Alex Karp?

  I mean, like, on speed dial. Like, you don't have to listen to what we're saying. You don't have to agree with what we're saying. Who are you talking to? Who are you talking to? You're talking to your, like, I don't know, expert that came here and studied us. Trust the experts. Trust the experts. It's like, so it's, yeah, it's like, energy, like.

• 33:45John Coogan?

  Do you think they will? Do you think that there's optimism around the idea of?

• 33:48Alex Karp?

  You'd still pick up the phone call, right? Oh, no, no. I mean, I pick up, it's crazy who calls me. It's like, it's honestly like, I can't talk out of school calls me. You'd be surprised the number of people coming. I begin every call with, don't listen to me. Very few people have. I'm going to give you the freak show answer. You probably want to ignore it. This is what I think. And they're like, huh, okay, yeah, huh, yeah, okay. Some callbacks, some don't. But, um, yeah, of course, I would, I mean, I have a lot of, I mean, like, honestly, we have a huge retail, a crazy thing about Germany is a huge retail investor base. They don't admit it in public, but in private, they're like, keep going, keep going. But, uh, yeah, no, I'm just saying, the point I'm saying is, uh, You know, it's like, oh, so then it's like, energy, technical talent, understanding how

• 34:31Alex Karp?

  to manage the technical talent. That's an art. Like, we have the right venture people, the right entrepreneurs, the right spirit. We have generations of people who are entrepreneurial here.

• 34:40John Coogan?

  Like, no tall poppy syndrome.

• 34:41Alex Karp?

  Yeah, well, it's funny you mention that. That's like, yeah, like, we were very, well, this is the thing, we have to fight for this. Because that no tall poppy, what that basically means, and people may not realize this, but in any, every other culture I know of, and like, and I've lived abroad, in Germany, Europe, incredible cultures. But if you, your head sticks above the line, it gets cut off. There's one culture where that doesn't happen, is here. The only thing is, we have to fight for that. Because the thing that unifies the woke left and the woke right is they don't like the consequences of meritocracy. They want to work back to the inputs. So, and that, that like, just will screw society. It's like, you've got to be able to allow people to succeed wherever they go. Now, I was kind of still progressive, you know, and believes it. I super would like the inputs,

• 35:26Alex Karp?

  to be fair. But the outputs, those are the outputs. It's a result of freedom.

• 35:29John Coogan?

  Okay, last question. We gotta get you out of here. I walked by your office, there were some kettlebells. What are the kettlebells for?

• 35:37Alex Karp?

  Oh, okay. Well, this is slightly long. I'll give you a short version. So, to be a cross-country skier, you've got to train year-round. So, you need substantial VO2 max, and actually, you need to be strong per unit of weight. So, as an example, I do three days a week of kind of above and below lactate threshold running, but mostly pretty far, and then once a week, kind of at. And then I do two days of strength, one day of like, endurance strength. And currently, the thing I'm actually really proud of is I just started doing hang from a bar as a dead hang, like, four months ago. And I hit four minutes and thirty-six seconds.

• 36:16Speaker 00

  Four minutes and thirty-six seconds.

• 36:19Jordi Hays?

  What's the goal for the end of the year?

• 36:21Alex Karp?

  Well, actually, my goal for the, yeah, you have to, you have to, this is just money. This is, no, I mean, my goal for the year was, for actually, the next twelve months, was, was four minutes. But then there's the number two.

• 36:36Jordi Hays?

  We gotta get those numbers up.

• 36:37Alex Karp?

  Yeah, well, no, but the number two, the second best mountain climber in Norway. I don't know if you know his name, but he, I have a picture. He did four minutes and 22 seconds.

• 36:47Jordi Hays?

  Ooh, there you go.

• 36:49Speaker 00

  Okay, what can I do?

• 36:52Jordi Hays?

  Did it part time.

• 36:53John Coogan?

  Thank you for grabbing us. Appreciate your work. We'll talk to you soon. Have a great rest of your day. Congrats. My question is, we're going to go through the timeline. Tyler Cosgrove has written out the full United States versus Google case timeline. We're going to dig through. We're also going to go through Ben Thompson's, but my question that I want to answer is what do these, what do these pay for default deals look like going forward? Specifically in artificial intelligence, there is going to be a particularly odd dynamic around how L L M queries route on the iPhone by default. Like the last possible moment to start taking A I seriously and build like a serious A I foundation model lab.

• 37:39John Coogan?

  The last moment that you could credibly do that, I feel like was earlier this year. Like that was when the, the, the last train left the station and who was driving that train? Mark Zuckerberg and what did he do? He went and tried to buy everything that was viable and hire everyone who is hirable.

• 37:54Jordi Hays?

  Weren't viable.

• 37:55John Coogan?

  Yeah, for sure. And what he wound up with was not exactly a dream team. He didn't get Ilya. He didn't get Dario. He didn't get Demis, but he got a really solid crew, right?

• 38:07Jordi Hays?

  And some great business guys.

• 38:08John Coogan?

  Some great business guys, some great researchers. He, he also just spilled out the, the researcher tiers, like he's got a ton of researchers. So.

• 38:16Jordi Hays?

  He wasn't worried about salary caps.

• 38:18John Coogan?

  No, no, no, not at all. And so, and, and so we were debating yesterday whether Alex Wang was a good pickup for Mark Meta. And my conclusion is like, he is the best possible option and I think it'll pencil out. I think it'll be a good deal. It is a big acquisition and it'll be interesting to see how we look on that in a decade. But I think the opportunity is so big, it makes sense. At the same time.

• 38:40John Coogan?

  Like, what would Apple even do if they wanted to compete in AI? Like, everyone is taken off, all the, all the pieces are off the board at this point. They don't have the DNA for mega acquisitions, so they're not going to go and try and buy Anthropic. Like, that's just not how they work. They don't like writing hundred million dollar checks for talent. Tim Cook only makes seventy four point six million dollars a year. They're not going to pay some AI researcher a hundred million dollars. It's just not going to happen. And so everyone else sort of has a dance partner at this point. Apple wouldn't just be like trying to turn the cruise ship that is Apple. They're building an entirely new cruise ship. It's just not going to happen. So I don't think Apple is, is going to try and build a serious frontier lab. I think they're going to partner on this. And the question is, where does it leave them?

• 39:24John Coogan?

  They have something incredibly valuable. Do you know how many active iPhone users there are worldwide right now?

• 39:31Jordi Hays?

  One and a half billion.

• 39:32John Coogan?

  One point four billion. Isn't that a ton? That just, I, I feel like I was, if I had to just guess, I'd be like-

• 39:39Jordi Hays?

  Job's not finished.

• 39:41John Coogan?

  Truly, truly. But, but so like, that is incredibly valuable because it's not just, it's not just over a billion users. It's over a billion users that-

• 39:48Jordi Hays?

  They can charge nine ninety nine a month forever randomly.

• 39:52John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, so many different monetization, but it's also, it's like, it's, it's the top one billion, really, usually, like, basically, of like earners. Because it's the most expensive phone, usually. And so, and they also have that button on the side that right now activates something that should feel like AI, but is very clearly far from the frontier. And so the logical outcome feels like a partnership here. But what will the scale and structure of that partnership be? If OpenAI really nails agentic commerce, as semi-analysis suggests, it wouldn't be crazy for OpenAI to pay Apple billions of dollars to be the default. And so right now, we're thinking about, if you push the Siri button,

• 40:33John Coogan?

  you trigger an LLM inference query that's very expensive. Every time I hit ChatGPT, it's a couple cents. If I do some crazy reasoning thing, some deep research report, might be a dollar. I don't even know. It is expensive, right? If I'm sending off some agent to go and like, research every- Every single different type of tennis ball.

• 40:51Jordi Hays?

  You drained an aquifer somewhere.

• 40:52John Coogan?

  Yeah, that's what it feels like, right? It feels like every time you hit, you hit a query, it's expensive. And so, but that's going to flip. And I think each query is actually going to be monetizable. And they're all going to be, they're basically all going to be profitable like Google searches. And so what if they are profitable? If every time someone hits an L L M, it's not a cost center, but it's actually a profit center. Well, then OpenAI can pay to get more search volume, some more query volume. And so that means that maybe OpenAI will wind up paying Apple billions of dollars to be the default. And of course, they're going to try and build their own device. And there's a lot of other dynamics, but would they go with Gemini? Because they're already on Google for the search default.

• 41:36John Coogan?

  But would they go, would they do that? Or, or is that too, is that never, are they never going to be able to compete there? Because Gemini is so deeply integrated with Android and the Android phones are over here, kind of doing their own thing. So you can imagine.

• 41:53Jordi Hays?

  And over this year, there's been rumors bubbling up of Apple in conversations with Anthropic, with Chat G P T, with Gemini, right? And a lot of these companies have been throwing around some very big numbers with, with, with, with Tim and the Apple team. And I think they had, at least back then, they seemed to have some stickers.

• 42:11John Coogan?

  So right now, it feels like the foundation labs are going to Apple and saying, every time we run a query, it costs us one cent, 10 cents, a dollar, whatever. You got to pay us to use our amazing intelligence.

• 42:26Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, to bring value to your users.

• 42:28John Coogan?

  But I think it might flip. And I think that the each query might actually be profitable just at the query level. Because there's going to be commerce that's triggered from those. So in the future, you'll pick up your phone, you'll press the button on the side, and you can instantly fire off a best in class OpenAI agent to do your bidding. So you'll say, order me some creatine and it'll just go do it. And that will be valuable and that will actually drive, that will be a profitable query. And so OpenAI could potentially be paying Apple for the right to do that. So right now, OpenAI, OpenAI and Apple do have a partnership in place, but the reporting suggests that no money is directly changing hands. But I don't necessarily expect it to stay that way. So I don't know.

• 43:13John Coogan?

  What's your take? How do you, do you think that this is reasonable that OpenAI could be paying Apple billions of dollars within the next, I don't know, five years? Or do you think it flips the other way and Apple is the one shelling out billions of dollars for access to frontier AI models from maybe Anthropic, maybe, uh, maybe OpenAI, maybe someone else?

• 43:36Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, the people that are paying for ChatGPT today probably have a pretty insane overlap with iPhone customers. Like, it probably looks something like this.

• 43:50Jordi Hays?

  I, I think that Sam recognizes, I mean, every consumer tech entrepreneur has like realized how important it is to integrate at the hardware level, right? This is why Zach is hell bent on winning in VR, right? He's been sick of like being at the app layer.

• 44:08John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 44:08Jordi Hays?

  And I know that Sam, uh, uh, does not want to be in that same, you know, why would he pay billions for Johnny Ive and that team? Like, he, he, he understands the importance of the hardware layer and certainly will recognize the leverage that Apple is going to have over the entire ecosystem. I think the question is, a lot of this just comes down to, uh, in my view,

• 44:33Jordi Hays?

  are consumers going to be paying for AI in the long run? I haven't been totally convinced that, that the everyday American is going to be spending, certainly not $200 a month, I don't even know about $20 a month, right?

• 44:44John Coogan?

  I think it flips.

• 44:45Jordi Hays?

  It's gonna, it's gonna ultimately flip. And so I can see, I can see there being a period where OpenAI is willing to pay to be like the default intelligence

• 44:56John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 44:56Jordi Hays?

  product within the Apple ecosystem. But again, there, it is just going to be a really, it'll be, it'll be an interesting dynamic in partnership, right? Because it's gonna, it's so, there's so much tension there because Apple is gonna want to, Apple is already selling intelligence as a reason to upgrade the iPhone, right? And they, they've gotten lawsuits over this because they sold Apple intelligence and the people are like, this isn't very smart at all. What did, what did I just buy, right? And so are they going to be incentivized to say?

• 45:23John Coogan?

  Even 70 IQ is a form of intelligence. It's just a low level of intelligence.

• 45:28Jordi Hays?

  Yes.

• 45:28John Coogan?

  They didn't say, they didn't say Apple high IQ intelligence. They didn't say Apple super intelligence. They just said Apple intelligence has some level of intelligence.

• 45:36Jordi Hays?

  Apple room temp.

• 45:37John Coogan?

  Room temp intelligence.

• 45:40Jordi Hays?

  Room ten, I Apple.

• 45:43John Coogan?

  What do you think Tyler? Do you think that OpenAI will be paying Apple? Or do you think Apple will be paying other foundation labs? Or where will the flow of money go in the next few years?

• 45:54Speaker 04

  Yeah, I don't really see it flipping very soon to where like prompts or tokens are like actually super profitable. Um, cause you need like both massive, you need like way better capabilities and it needs to be way more efficient. Because like if you just have more capabilities, still like right now, most people are not paying for chat GPT. They're just using the, the, you know, free plan.

• 46:16John Coogan?

  Free tier.

• 46:17Speaker 04

  Which is like, if you compare, I mean, if you compare four O, like look at like five months ago, if you compare four O to like O three.

• 46:24John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 46:25Speaker 04

  It was like massive, you know, difference and people still weren't paying.

• 46:28John Coogan?

  In cost or in capability?

• 46:31Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah. And people still weren't paying. So you need to be like way better. You know, for people to actually start paying, or you need to be way cheaper.

• 46:40John Coogan?

  Yeah. I don't know if I agree with that. I, I, I feel like four O was definitely good enough. People were obsessed with it. People were like falling in love with it, right?

• 46:47Jordi Hays?

  Even Meek Mill.

• 46:48John Coogan?

  Like I understand, I as a power user like didn't get that much out of it, but.

• 46:53Speaker 04

  Yeah, but I, I think you like, if you ask normal people what they think of like AI, they're like, oh yeah, this is not going to take my job at all.

• 46:58John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 46:59Speaker 04

  When reality, if you used like O three and they, if they used O three every day, if they were a power user, they'd be, I think they'd be way more bullish on AI generally.

• 47:06John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 47:07Speaker 04

  So I think that might be evidence that people like, I don't know, are not.

• 47:10Jordi Hays?

  I think, I mean, one crazy dynamic is, is Apple says, I mean, if they were to do a deal with OpenAI, they could just say like, great, like we're gonna, we're gonna sign up every, like how many, how many paying subs do you have? Great. We're gonna start heavily, if Apple just starts heavily pushing chat GPT, they will by default get their 30% from the app store, right? But they could work out.

• 47:34John Coogan?

  Hmm.

• 47:35Jordi Hays?

  So like this could end up being like, even if, even if OpenAI is not directly paying

• 47:40John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 47:40Jordi Hays?

  Apple for it, it could end up generating.

• 47:43John Coogan?

  I don't think it's enough.

• 47:45Jordi Hays?

  You don't think it's enough?

• 47:46John Coogan?

  I don't think it's enough money for the value that that it'll bring on if it was actually integrated into like the Siri button at the low level. I can just press a button and say, order me creatine. Order me creatine and it knows my address because it knows my home address from my contact in the in there. It has my payment information saved. It does all of that. Like, I don't know of taking thirty percent of my chat GPT subscription if I subscribe. And if I subscribed on mobile, but really, most people are going to subscribe on desktop and OpenAI is going to be constantly being like, hey, go over here and like use a web view to like subscribe this way and stuff. I don't know.

• 48:27John Coogan?

  It'll be interesting to see how it how it pencils out. I feel like there's going to be some new deal that that's going to happen. Someone's gonna someone's gonna pay. Someone's gonna bid. Someone's gonna pay out.

• 48:35Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the Google team says, hey, we're already paying twenty twenty billion. Why don't we double it to be Gemini be the default?

• 48:43John Coogan?

  Can you imagine? I mean, if Gemini was the default on on iPhone, that would be bizarre. But, I mean, it does kind of like, it does kind of match with the with the search deal, right?

• 48:56John Coogan?

  Anyway, let's read through Ben Thompson. Maybe we maybe we go through the the history first to get us up to speed, Tyler. Do you do you mind taking us?

• 49:02Jordi Hays?

  Take us through it.

• 49:04John Coogan?

  So this is the United States versus Google.

• 49:07Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 49:07John Coogan?

  Which started in twenty twenty?

• 49:09Speaker 04

  Twenty twenty starts in October twenty twenty. So that's under Trump.

• 49:12John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 49:13Speaker 04

  So, yeah, I think let's just go over like kind of the central claim of the actual case first. So it's basically that Google is violating the the antitrust act of eighteen ninety.

• 49:22Jordi Hays?

  It's wild to think about, you know, before Donald Trump was a technology founder.

• 49:28John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 49:28Jordi Hays?

  With True Social, there was a time where he was beefing with big tech.

• 49:32John Coogan?

  Yeah, it's crazy.

• 49:32Jordi Hays?

  Feels so long ago.

• 49:33John Coogan?

  Instead of just competing.

• 49:35Jordi Hays?

  Thanks for getting us up on a VHS.

• 49:39Jordi Hays?

  We needed this.

• 49:39John Coogan?

  Fantastic. Only possible on Restream, one livestream, thirty plus destinations. Multi-stream your VHS tapes and reach your audience wherever they are. Head over to Restream.

• 49:50Jordi Hays?

  It truly is. Technology is incredible.

• 49:52John Coogan?

  Yes, also, yeah, continue.

• 49:54Speaker 04

  Okay, so so Sherman antitrust act of eighteen ninety. I also put some of the the victims, previous victims of this act. So we see Standard Oil. Standard Oil. American Tobacco Company, US Steel, AT&T. This is what broke up Bell Labs. Probably set us back a couple of decades.

• 50:11John Coogan?

  You know who founded Bell Labs?

• 50:14Jordi Hays?

  Uh.

• 50:15John Coogan?

  Quiz, who founded Bell Labs?

• 50:16Jordi Hays?

  Wait, is it like, oh, I don't know. Is it Claude Shannon?

• 50:19John Coogan?

  No.

• 50:20Jordi Hays?

  No.

• 50:20John Coogan?

  Who founded Bell Labs?

• 50:22Jordi Hays?

  Oh.

• 50:23John Coogan?

  Bell Labs.

• 50:24Jordi Hays?

  Alexander Graham Bell.

• 50:25John Coogan?

  Alexander Graham Bell, yeah.

• 50:26Jordi Hays?

  No way.

• 50:26John Coogan?

  That's correct, yep.

• 50:29John Coogan?

  Alexander Graham Bell started Bell Labs.

• 50:31Jordi Hays?

  Let's go.

• 50:32John Coogan?

  Original technology brother.

• 50:33Jordi Hays?

  We don't know how to name companies.

• 50:34John Coogan?

  I know, I was looking at the names.

• 50:36Jordi Hays?

  Standard Oil, American Tobacco.

• 50:38John Coogan?

  U.S.

• 50:38Jordi Hays?

  U.S. Steel.

• 50:39John Coogan?

  What is the A in AT&T stand for? Is that America? American Technology and.

• 50:44Jordi Hays?

  Me ask Gemini.

• 50:45John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 50:46Jordi Hays?

  What does AT&T?

• 50:48John Coogan?

  Okay, anyway, continue. And then Microsoft, of course, it was a headache for Bill Gates for his entire career until he retired.

• 50:52Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Oh, that's so good. American Telephone and Telegraph.

• 50:56Speaker 05

  Oh, that's so good.

• 50:58John Coogan?

  When you pick a name like that and you actually, you understand the job and you're just like, yeah, standard oil, I'm going to standardize oil.

• 51:06Jordi Hays?

  I need a name for my telephone and telegraph company. Hmm. What about American?

• 51:11John Coogan?

  American.

• 51:12Jordi Hays?

  Telephone and Telegraph Company.

• 51:14John Coogan?

  Founder.

• 51:15Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 51:15John Coogan?

  Okay, anyway, sorry.

• 51:16Speaker 04

  Okay, so, so basically the claim is that they're legally monopolizing the search engine and the, the advertising markets, like in search.

• 51:23John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 51:24Speaker 04

  Um, so they're, they're locking up distribution.

• 51:27John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 51:27Speaker 04

  Uh, they're self-reinforcing barriers to entry. Um, and, and they're.

• 51:31John Coogan?

  And the evidence is that they paid billions to Apple and other vendors.

• 51:35Speaker 04

  Exactly.

• 51:35John Coogan?

  Probably hundreds of billions at this point, because it's been like 10 billion for decades.

• 51:39Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 51:39John Coogan?

  So, wow, they're, they're up.

• 51:40Speaker 04

  So, so, so that is, uh, they, they filed the, the case DOJ in 2020.

• 51:46John Coogan?

  Um, wait, should we start with the history of Google Search and Safari and then through this?

• 51:50Speaker 04

  Sure, yeah, yeah.

• 51:50John Coogan?

  That might be better.

• 51:51Speaker 04

  So, yeah, okay, so, so Google Search and Safari, so 2002.

• 51:55John Coogan?

  2002.

• 51:56Speaker 04

  This is.

• 51:57John Coogan?

  Pre-iPhone.

• 51:57Speaker 04

  Yeah, this is pre-iPhone. This is just on Safari on the.

• 52:00John Coogan?

  Wow.

• 52:01Speaker 04

  I guess the Mac or whatever it was.

• 52:03John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 52:03Speaker 04

  So, so Google's the default there. It's just like.

• 52:05John Coogan?

  They just, Apple just picked that because it was the best one.

• 52:07Speaker 04

  It's just the best thing. They just put it in. Yeah, there's no.

• 52:10Jordi Hays?

  So, the, so Google's been the default search engine on Apple devices since 2002.

• 52:15John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 52:16Jordi Hays?

  And they, we don't know specifics. Most recently is $20 billion annually, but, but it's been an over 20-year partnership.

• 52:23John Coogan?

  I mean, that's a crazy, it's crazy to go, I mean, Google was founded late September 1998. And then by 2002, you're the default on Apple, like the previous era biggest computing company. I mean, I guess Apple wasn't like what it is today back in 2002, uh, kind of pre iPhone. It was certainly not like the biggest company in the world, but still like.

• 52:44Jordi Hays?

  Pre Tyler, too. This all pre, I mean.

• 52:49Speaker 04

  Three years, 2005.

• 52:50Jordi Hays?

  2005. Hey, if you want to feel old, born in 2005.

• 52:56John Coogan?

  Okay. So anyway, uh, Sergey Brin, what does he do?

• 52:58Speaker 04

  So, so 2005 Sergey Brin suggests, suggests some kind of revenue share. They always call it a revenue share.

• 53:03John Coogan?

  Just out of the goodness of his heart? What, what is he thinking? That's crazy.

• 53:06Speaker 04

  I, I have to assume there's, it's like there's some competition.

• 53:09Jordi Hays?

  He's an honest man.

• 53:09Speaker 04

  He's seeing it on the horizon.

• 53:11John Coogan?

  Okay, yeah.

• 53:12Speaker 04

  But yeah, I like that he, they always call it a revenue share. They don't, they're not paying to be the default.

• 53:16John Coogan?

  Sure, sure, sure, sure.

• 53:17Speaker 04

  They're just helping a brother out, you know?

• 53:18John Coogan?

  Okay, yeah, yeah.

• 53:19Speaker 04

  And then, um, 2007.

• 53:21John Coogan?

  Spreading the wealth.

• 53:22Speaker 04

  Yeah. 2007, 2009, these are like the real negotiations. They're like, it's like Sergey Brin says, like, oh yeah, we do revenue share. But then when it comes down to it, he's like, well, you know, let's slow down. Let's push the brakes a little bit. The numbers are getting a little high. And then basically the, the actual like numbers are not public.

• 53:39John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 53:39Speaker 04

  Um, they really only show up, yeah, as a result of this case, like them being.

• 53:44John Coogan?

  Oh, after the fact. So we learned this through the case. We didn't know for years. Wow.

• 53:47Speaker 04

  Yeah. So it's not really till 2021.

• 53:49John Coogan?

  Oh, so there was like a full decade where people were like, yeah, like, uh, Google's probably paying Apple something, but.

• 53:54Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but hiding, hiding a.

• 53:57John Coogan?

  Thirty million dollars.

• 53:58Jordi Hays?

  Twenty billion dollar line item and you're.

• 54:00John Coogan?

  You can do it if, uh, I, I, I believe the disclosure rules and SEC filings are something like, if it's a, if it's a, if it's a division of the company that reports to the CEO, then you have to break out the financials. This is like YouTube. This is, uh, the story of like AWS when we first got the AWS financials. So if it's just something like, like, you know, is some deal, it's just one deal, like it's not, it's not even a, it's not even like a whole division of the company.

• 54:26Jordi Hays?

  It's a deal I did with Steve.

• 54:27John Coogan?

  Yeah. It's just like, it's just like other, other income or something like that. I don't know. Anyway, okay. So.

• 54:33Speaker 04

  Yeah. So 2021, it's, it's kind of revealed or estimated at least that, uh, payments are around 20 billion a year. Um, and then 2023, this is also a result of the case.

• 54:42John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 54:43Speaker 04

  Apple is like confirmed to be taking 36% of the, the revenue from Safari that Google makes.

• 54:49John Coogan?

  Okay. No. So it's similar to their App Store revenue, a little bit higher, 36%.

• 54:53Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 54:53John Coogan?

  And that's probably how they got to the number. That's pretty crazy that Google's making $6 billion off of.

• 54:59Jordi Hays?

  I never knew they got where they were getting 30, 36% for the big man. For the big man. That's crazy.

• 55:06Speaker 04

  Yeah, and then 2025.

• 55:08Jordi Hays?

  They're like, we know you paid to be here, but I'm gonna need a cut, too.

• 55:11John Coogan?

  Yeah, wow.

• 55:12Speaker 04

  Yeah. Okay, so let's go through the full, the case.

• 55:16John Coogan?

  The case.

• 55:16Speaker 04

  The case. So, September 2023, this is really the first, like, actual, like, trial. It's the bench trial. I don't really know what that is, but August 2024 is, is the actual, like, initial judgment. So this is, Google is, in fact, violating antitrust. Like, something needs to be done. We don't know what is to be done.

• 55:38John Coogan?

  But we're gonna do, but then we will eventually decide what the punishment is.

• 55:42Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 55:42John Coogan?

  But they are guilty.

• 55:43Speaker 04

  They are guilty.

• 55:44John Coogan?

  They were found guilty.

• 55:45Speaker 04

  There's no, you know, results, like, what are they gonna do?

• 55:48John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 55:48Speaker 04

  Yeah, they're guilty. And then it's not till April of 2025, so this is five years after the, you know,

• 55:54John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 55:54Speaker 04

  it was actually filed. There's the remedies trial, I think that's what it's.

• 55:58John Coogan?

  Sure. Yeah.

• 56:00Speaker 04

  So, yeah. So this is like what is actually to be done.

• 56:02John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 56:03Speaker 04

  Now, like, we know that they're a monopoly.

• 56:04John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 56:05Speaker 04

  What do we do about it?

• 56:06John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 56:06Speaker 04

  And then it wasn't until, I guess, yesterday that it was actually the verdict.

• 56:11John Coogan?

  Yeah, I got it.

• 56:12Speaker 04

  So we, I think we already went through some of the verdict.

• 56:14John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 56:14Speaker 04

  But it's, the, the, the judge denied the DOJ's request for forced divestiture

• 56:21John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 56:21Speaker 04

  of Chrome and Android.

• 56:22John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 56:23Speaker 04

  They ordered Google to end exclusive distribution agreements. So that's like, I think we talked about this too with Apple. You can't, like, just, it can't be exclusive to Apple, to, like, payments or whatever.

• 56:35John Coogan?

  Yeah, what, what does that mean in practice? It can't be exclusive, so they have to pay, like, Xiaomi or something? Are we talking about other phone manufacturers? Are we talking about other, other search engines? Like, I know that, like, like, it's not like if I go into my Safari settings, I, I can't pick Bing. Like, I, I can still pick other things. It's just the default that, that they're paying for.

• 57:00Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 57:00John Coogan?

  Dig into that. Jordy, do you want to look that up or something?

• 57:02Jordi Hays?

  Asking Gemini.

• 57:03John Coogan?

  Okay, cool.

• 57:04Speaker 04

  I don't, yeah, it's kind of like legalese. And then, then there's mandating Google to share search index and, and user, basically sharing data with competitors.

• 57:14Jordi Hays?

  I don't understand the exclusive, so, so Google pays Mozilla.

• 57:17John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 57:18Jordi Hays?

  They, Mozilla basically wouldn't survive without.

• 57:22Jordi Hays?

  Google, apparently. It's like a very significant amount of their revenue, which is funny because Google obviously competes with

• 57:29John Coogan?

  On Chrome.

• 57:29Jordi Hays?

  With Chrome. And then they do this with device manufacturers like Samsung. That just makes, make, you know, continue to make Chrome and Google Search pre-installed.

• 57:41John Coogan?

  Sure, sure. Okay, and then what's the last one? Uh, search index, sharing of the search index and user interaction data with rivals. So was that Bing?

• 57:51Speaker 04

  I, yeah, so I guess this means, these are all basically direct quotes from the actual like file. Um, but I assume it means that they have to just share some of the like actual like

• 58:01John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 58:01Speaker 04

  Index data from like whatever page rank is. Um, they have to like put out publicly.

• 58:07John Coogan?

  So we gotta hammer the chief product officer of Microsoft today about Bing and what this means. Cause, uh, yeah, I mean, there's gotta be a way to make money off this if you're Microsoft. This is, this is the way to do it. Okay. Anyway, anything else from the history?

• 58:22Jordi Hays?

  Okay, so, so just to be clear, the, they prevent exclusive contracts. So Google's barred from entering or maintaining exclusive contracts that give its search engine, Chrome, Google Assistant, or Gemini app a monopoly position on a device. So basically they can't go to a smartphone manufacturer and say you just can't host any other.

• 58:41John Coogan?

  Sure, sure. Uh, in the chat, Pericles says, Google's only going to share their search data with like other top three companies. It's still remaining a monopoly. Uh, interesting and people, people enjoy the VHS. So thank you for, for tuning in.

• 58:55Speaker 04

  Also, so, so these rules also apply to like Gen AI stuff. So this, all of this also applies to like Gemini if they want to do the same. You know, if they want to lease it to Apple or whatever, um, all the same rules apply about.

• 59:06John Coogan?

  If you've been enjoying the whiteboard segments, we are thinking about getting a smart whiteboard where we can put up a FIG jam from FIGMA. Of course, we're sponsored by FIGMA. Think bigger, build faster. FIGMA helps design and development teams build great products together. You can get started for free. FIGMA.com. Let's run through Ben Thompson's take. Um, so he kicks it off with, uh, Google's remedy decision. Alphabet Inc. will be required to share online search data with rivals while avoiding harsher penalties. Including the forced sale, we know this. Google's statement was short and sweet. Earlier today, a US court overseeing the DOJ's lawsuit over how we distribute search issued a decision on next steps. He, uh, Google closes says, as always, we continuing to, we're continuing to focus on what matters. Building innovative products that people choose to love, choose and love.

• 59:51Jordi Hays?

  Um, that's a good line.

• 59:53John Coogan?

  That's a statement of a company that lost some battles, but won the war in my estimation, says Ben Thompson in, in Strategery. You should go subscribe to. There are some cursory objections to Judge Meta's decision. But by and large, that statement exudes relief and rightfully so. The company that is truly breathing, the company is truly breathing easier today. However, is Apple. Apple's actually breathing easier because they're getting that sweet, sweet.

• 1:00:19Jordi Hays?

  Sweet, sweet.

• 1:00:20John Coogan?

  Sweet 20, 36% off the top.

• 1:00:22Jordi Hays?

  99% margin, 20, 20 billion a year.

• 1:00:25John Coogan?

  The first set of remedies were the ones that Google proposed and has already implemented, namely an ending the exclusive agreements that were the foundation of Judge Meta's original finding of liability. So, uh, let's see, uh, I want to know what these actual, uh, remedies are. Here we go. Again, this is literally illegal behavior. What?

• 1:00:47Jordi Hays?

  We should just highlight again, so Google will be barred from entering or maintaining any exclusive contract relating to the distribution of search Chrome Assistant and Gemini. Uh, Google shall not enter or maintain any agreement that conditions the licensing of the Play Store or any other Google application on the distribution, preloading or placement of Google Search Chrome Assistant.

• 1:01:07John Coogan?

  This is the bundling thing. So a lot of the antitrust cases hinge on bundling. You say, oh, you can't have the Play Store on your Android phone unless you're defaulting to search. Or you, you have to have Chrome pre-installed if you want access to search. Like all of that stuff is, uh, is seen as anti.

• 1:01:27Jordi Hays?

  And so Ben says, again, this is literally illegal behavior. So ending it was the bare minimum. Antitrust precedent, however, dictates that Judge Meta go further again from the opinion.

• 1:01:37Jordi Hays?

  Uh, this is from Meta.

• 1:01:38John Coogan?

  Yeah. Oh, this is good, too. So, uh, they cannot ma- enter or maintain an agreement that prohibits any partner, either Apple or Samsung, uh, from simultaneously distributing any other search engine, browser, or Gen AI product. So you ca- so Google can't go to someone and say, and say, "Hey, uh, you, in order to have search as your default, or Google search, or whatever deal we're doing, or whatever we're paying you, uh, you can't have Anthropic pre-installed, or you can't have, um, uh, Mozilla pre-installed." Like, you can choose whatever.

• 1:02:17Jordi Hays?

  Can't be in the contract.

• 1:02:17John Coogan?

  Yeah, can't be in the contract. Uh, and, and that wa- and that is illegal behavior, and so ending it is the bare minimum, says Ben Thompson. Antitrust precedent, however, dictates that Judge Meta go further, again, from the opinion, "The question now is what to do about Google's violations. Precedent requires fashioning antitrust remedies that effectively pry open to competition, a market that has been closed by a monopolist's illegal restraints. Denying the fruits of the violation is a valid objective, and so, too, is ensuring that anti-competitive behavior will not recur in the same or related ways. The court has broad discretion to impose remedies to accomplish those aims." Judge Meta laid out four fruits of the violation. The court found that the agreements had four

• 1:03:02John Coogan?

  main anti-competitive effects. They, one, foreclosed a substantial portion of the relevant markets, thus impairing rivals' opportunities to compete. Two, denied rivals' access to user queries or scale, uh, needed to effectively compete. Three, reduced the incentive to invest or innovate in search. And four, enabled Google to increase tech ad prices without any meaningful competitive restraint, thereby allowing Google to earn monopoly profits to secure the next iteration of exclusive deals through higher revenue share payments. These effects did not persist. Independently, together, they enabled Google to widen the moats and pull up drawbridges to ward off competition. Great analogy.

• 1:03:40Jordi Hays?

  Judge Meta attempts to address number two necessary scale by forcing Google to share various types of data, including Google's search index, but not the actual data from the webpages and the index or the output of Google's PageRank algorithm. Competitors, which explicitly include GenAI providers, will get a one-time snapshot, not an ongoing one, and only need to pay Google's marginal costs for providing the information. User click and query data showing what results users clicked on. Competitors will get this data at least twice, but the final number will be determined by the technical committee the court will set up and oversee. Do you fully understand?

• 1:04:17John Coogan?

  Yeah, that's a very, very odd, odd like change and remedy. I guess it like lets people catch up to where things are. It feels like the remedy is like, like there has been this unfair advantage for Google for years. We're letting everyone catch up and then we're creating like a fair race, but we're restarting the race and then everyone can go out and do whatever they want. Current thing is big numbers. $200 million for the Free Press, Barry Weiss's media company to CBS. People did not like the quiet in the chat. They said scream. $610 million for the browser company. We talked about that a little bit yesterday.

• 1:05:00John Coogan?

  Ramp hit $1 billion in ARR. Let's hear it.

• 1:05:06Jordi Hays?

  Great hit, great hit. 600 billion in Meta capex.

• 1:05:14John Coogan?

  Capex and 1 trillion potentially on the table for Elon Musk at Tesla. So we're going to go through this. So the Free Press is one of the most impressive media companies built in the last decade, says Austin Reeve from Morning Brew, correct?

• 1:05:29Jordi Hays?

  Yes.

• 1:05:29John Coogan?

  Huge congrats to Barry Weiss, Nellie, Snoozy Weiss, this is a funny name, for building something truly different. This is, I think, still rumored. I don't think it's fully confirmed at this point, but it's all, it's all but.

• 1:05:42Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, it was hard to tell which side was leaking the news.

• 1:05:46John Coogan?

  Yeah, there's this dynamic where media likes to talk about media and I I feel that a hundred percent. It's super interesting to hear about like the business of Joe Rogan or the business of Huberman.

• 1:05:55Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:05:55John Coogan?

  Or or any of the experts, but um, uh, so so obviously also, you know, you're surrounded by journalists. Literally, if you run a media company, so they all talk.

• 1:06:05Speaker 06

  Journalistic force headed towards you.

• 1:06:07John Coogan?

  Heard that one before, uh, but you're surrounded by journalists and so, uh, obviously everyone talks and the media leaks out and the news leaks out.

• 1:06:16Jordi Hays?

  And it could be interesting ways for either side to put pressure on getting.

• 1:06:20John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 1:06:20Jordi Hays?

  Finish line.

• 1:06:21John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 1:06:22Jordi Hays?

  They want out of the deal.

• 1:06:22John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah. And so, uh, there's, there's a series of takes. I was talking to a buddy who works in media who was, uh, coming at me with like, uh, it's a crazy number. And so that's kind of level one. Level one of the take is like, uh, on a price per subscriber basis, seems high. I think they have about a million free subscribers. Two hundred dollars per free subscriber feels like a lot, I guess. Um, kind of hard to tell if you think about long-term value for CBS, but then others are complaining about the political implications of the deal. Is this something that's like a give to Trump to help get the, the, the, the, the demerger, the spin out approved, something like that?

• 1:06:59Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, and I mean, this is an eight billion dollar deal, this merger. And media companies are now entirely like media companies at their best are personality led.

• 1:07:11John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:07:11Jordi Hays?

  And paying two hundred million dollars to bring on, you know, a face for CBS, one of the most important properties makes sense.

• 1:07:21John Coogan?

  Yeah, that's my, that's my like level three, like final take, which is that, um, you sort of have to put a, put aside the price per subscriber. You know, take and you have to put aside the political implications of the take. I just think about it from, it's a big company, eight billion, you said, something around there. Does bringing a younger, more entrepreneurial talent into the organization move the market cap by one percent or two percent?

• 1:07:49Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:07:50John Coogan?

  Over the next few years, like I, it seems like the same math that we're doing for buying a very expensive AI researcher. You're paying a lot of money in terms of like what, what like a salary would count, but you just can't get that level of talent on any sort of normal.

• 1:08:04Jordi Hays?

  Overall property.

• 1:08:05John Coogan?

  Exactly, exactly. And so I was, uh, the, the, the person I was talking to who was like, this is a ridiculous price. I was like, yeah, but dude, like if, if you were at CNN. You could probably add $200 million of value to that organization pretty quickly.

• 1:08:20Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:08:21John Coogan?

  Uh, and so it's just a matter of time until like the market and the board of directors and the shareholders kind of wake up to that dynamic of how power law certain people are and actually go and figure out how to get the deals done.

• 1:08:33Jordi Hays?

  And David Ellison is doing deals, right? He just did a UFC deal.

• 1:08:36John Coogan?

  Hundred percent.

• 1:08:37Jordi Hays?

  Paramount.

• 1:08:37John Coogan?

  Hundred percent.

• 1:08:38Jordi Hays?

  And so there's a lot of big numbers flying around.

• 1:08:39John Coogan?

  And there's an, and there's an interesting dynamic where.

• 1:08:42Jordi Hays?

  And the, the premium, right? We saw this yesterday with the browser.

• 1:08:45John Coogan?

  Oh, yes, yes.

• 1:08:46Jordi Hays?

  Right?

• 1:08:47John Coogan?

  You do get a big.

• 1:08:47Jordi Hays?

  Fantastic outcome for having the, the, at the beginning of the name.

• 1:08:51John Coogan?

  Maybe we should just be the business production network. Drop the technology. Technology's over, the hype cycle's peaked. We're just the business product.

• 1:09:00Jordi Hays?

  We're in the trough.

• 1:09:01John Coogan?

  We're in the trough. Uh, we have some fun stuff coming, uh, in terms of the hype cycle soon. Um, but, uh, it's interesting because many companies just cannot justify putting someone on staff for a hundred million dollars. W two, we've seen this as Apple with Tim Cook, you know, the, the CEO pay. Uh, well, once you get into the, the, these eight, nine figures.

• 1:09:22Jordi Hays?

  Thank you for bringing that up. No, thank you for, no, seriously, thank you for bringing that up.

• 1:09:26John Coogan?

  Oh, yes.

• 1:09:27Jordi Hays?

  Thank you. Apparently, uh, uh, Tim Cook, we'll, we'll try to pull up this video in a bit. Apparently he said, thank you 12 times in two minutes when talking with, uh, President Trump last night at the dinner.

• 1:09:39John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:09:39Jordi Hays?

  So he's very grateful.

• 1:09:41John Coogan?

  So the, so yeah, Meta is like the first company to really like break this trend of just like, yeah, we're willing to pay a hundred million dollars in salary. We will do the crazy acquisitions and the aqua hires to get really talented people in the org. But, uh, I don't think other companies are in that world where they could go out and hire somebody like a Barry Weiss, just for a hundred million dollars. Uh, it's got to be done through an acquisition. That's what gets board approval. That's what gets shareholder approval. And so you're kind of wrapping an individual, an influencer, someone who's incredibly talented and entrepreneurial around an organization just to actually get the cash flow to flow through.

• 1:10:19Jordi Hays?

  It's making me think about CBS News for the first time. In decades.

• 1:10:25John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:10:25Jordi Hays?

  So.

• 1:10:26John Coogan?

  Yep, yep, yeah, it's true. And even if the, even if like the subscriber numbers are like a little low, I mean, honestly, a million's a ton. It's a great job. But even if they are a little low, it's like, well, what is it, what are they compounding at? What, what, what will the free press be able to be at in a decade with the support of CBS and the, and the backing, financial backing of CBS and Barry Weiss's execution strategy, like, could be 100 million. I don't know, it could be really, really big. But you don't have to raise money for it. You, you can just focus on growth. Anyway, similar story at the browser company, 610 million dollars from Atlassian, very interesting deal. The timeline was not a fan of it.

• 1:11:01Jordi Hays?

  Came from the land down under with a Brink's truck.

• 1:11:04John Coogan?

  Yes. And so

• 1:11:05Jordi Hays?

  They backed it up.

• 1:11:06John Coogan?

  A lot of people are asking, is this, is this some runaround by the Australian government to try and influence the browsing habits of Brooklyn hipsters?

• 1:11:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:11:14John Coogan?

  I don't think there's much of that.

• 1:11:15Jordi Hays?

  Try to control the narrative.

• 1:11:16John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 1:11:17Jordi Hays?

  To, as a way to say, you know, what, what if we could get all of the data from Brooklyn hipsters?

• 1:11:22John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:11:22Jordi Hays?

  All their browsing information.

• 1:11:24John Coogan?

  Yeah, they're known.

• 1:11:25Jordi Hays?

  Their communication.

• 1:11:26John Coogan?

  Yeah, they're known for drinking PBR. But what if every time they went to PBR on the Arc browser, the Dia browser, it just automatically rerouted them to Foster's?

• 1:11:35Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:11:36John Coogan?

  What if?

• 1:11:36Jordi Hays?

  Or the AI assistant on the side.

• 1:11:38John Coogan?

  Oh, oh, you're, you're in Dia.

• 1:11:39Jordi Hays?

  You might like Foster.

• 1:11:40John Coogan?

  And you're asking, oh, what should I do this weekend? And just auto, auto populates, oh, yeah, we're using AI. Throw, why don't you throw another shrimp on the barbie?

• 1:11:47Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. And if you search, is it true that kangaroos are extremely violent? It'll, it'll start spinning it and saying, oh, well, actually, you know, they're only violent when promote, provoke.

• 1:11:58John Coogan?

  Provoked, yeah, they're actually quite peaceful.

• 1:12:00Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, your dog actually tried to

• 1:12:02John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:12:02Jordi Hays?

  barked at the kangaroo.

• 1:12:03John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 1:12:04Jordi Hays?

  And the kangaroo went after it.

• 1:12:05John Coogan?

  Exactly, exactly.

• 1:12:06Jordi Hays?

  I think this, I think this is really smart.

• 1:12:08John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:12:08Jordi Hays?

  Uh, from Australian, uh, from, from, from, uh,

• 1:12:13John Coogan?

  From people pulling the strings in, you know, in Australia.

• 1:12:16Jordi Hays?

  Pulling the strings, right.

• 1:12:16John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, to get a little bit more, uh, influence over the Brooklyn hipster.

• 1:12:19Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 1:12:19John Coogan?

  And the Arc and Dia user.

• 1:12:21Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:12:21John Coogan?

  Uh, Zeb did not like the acquisitions.

• 1:12:24Jordi Hays?

  Pull this up.

• 1:12:25John Coogan?

  Me, uninstalling Arc is a certified Atlassian hater. There is a wild gap between the vibes. And so some people had this take that like, uh, there was, it was a vibe acquisition. They acquired good, better vibes with the next generation of founders. Uh,

• 1:12:40Jordi Hays?

  I think this is funny.

• 1:12:42John Coogan?

  Certainly has that.

• 1:12:42Jordi Hays?

  But I think that, uh, from, from what we've seen, Dia, they're going to continue to operate independently. I bet they're going to build some beautiful enterprise browsing experiences like they always have.

• 1:12:53John Coogan?

  Yeah, and they should they should build in restream one live stream thirty plus destinations, multi-stream and reach your audience wherever they are. So you should be able to stream from your DIA browser, from your Arc browser. So my my take on this was there's so basically, right now, the team is saying we're going to stay independent. We're going to go. But my question is, are they going to stay? Are they going to stick with that narrative of like, stay independent? And this is very rare for pre-product market fit acquisitions. I haven't seen a ton of examples of that where a company was acquired that wasn't like clearly on a, you know, just

• 1:13:29Jordi Hays?

  Remember, remember. Instagram was bought for a billion dollars.

• 1:13:33John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:13:34Jordi Hays?

  And almost everyone involved at the time thought that it was crazy.

• 1:13:38John Coogan?

  They did. Yeah, that is true. At the same time.

• 1:13:40Jordi Hays?

  And it was like a key threat to Meta's business, right? Like, the user growth was

• 1:13:45John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:13:46Jordi Hays?

  insane.

• 1:13:46John Coogan?

  I mean, I would love to look at the the retention metrics for DIA versus Instagram, because it's totally possible. I don't know. Do you know how many DAUs or total downloads Instagram had at the time of acquisition? I know it was small, but was it sub a million? I feel like it might have been a little bit bigger. Can someone look that up?

• 1:14:07Jordi Hays?

  But basically. Look that up, Tyler. I'm also curious about YouTube as well.

• 1:14:10John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:14:11Jordi Hays?

  YouTube was bought for

• 1:14:12John Coogan?

  Yeah, how many people were using YouTube?

• 1:14:13Jordi Hays?

  Three times.

• 1:14:15John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:14:16Jordi Hays?

  And again, our the dollar isn't what it used to be.

• 1:14:18John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:14:19Speaker 04

  Yes. So when Instagram was acquired, estimated around eight hundred and sixty thousand. So less than a million DAUs.

• 1:14:24John Coogan?

  Okay, okay, so.

• 1:14:25Jordi Hays?

  DAUs, though.

• 1:14:27John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah. But still, I mean, we're in the same ballpark here. Very interesting. Instagram?

• 1:14:32Jordi Hays?

  People that have

• 1:14:34John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:14:35Jordi Hays?

  If DAUs is wildly different than like total users.

• 1:14:38John Coogan?

  Okay, okay. Yeah, yeah. But still, I mean, we're we're in we're in the rough ballpark where you could where at the very least, you like, we have to take what Atlassian is saying and what the browser company is saying at face value. They are saying, we're going to continue building this browser. We're in it to win the AI browser. We're going broad. We're going consumer. This is not, we're acquiring this browser, we're going to bake it into Trello, and we're going to bake it into Jira.

• 1:15:05Jordi Hays?

  No, like, I actually disagree with you here. They don't they're they all the messaging was that this they're they're not going to be focused on consumer. Like from Atlassian CEO was that we're going to build great enterprise browsing experience.

• 1:15:20John Coogan?

  Oh, okay, okay.

• 1:15:21Jordi Hays?

  So there's nothing, there's nothing in there that I saw from the Atlassian side that said,

• 1:15:26John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:26Jordi Hays?

  we want to win in the consumer.

• 1:15:28John Coogan?

  Oh, really, really? Okay, interesting. Yeah.

• 1:15:30Jordi Hays?

  They are, they know their, they know their business, right?

• 1:15:32John Coogan?

  Okay, yeah.

• 1:15:33Jordi Hays?

  So.

• 1:15:34John Coogan?

  It's very interesting. I can't imagine having like a work browser, but maybe that makes sense. I mean, people have work laptops, but I feel like the trend has been you have, you have like one phone that you do work and life on, and then you have separate apps and maybe you have, you know, an enterprise software product installed on your, on your phone, but really like there's, the trend seems to be more people using like Gmail and Google email at work. And it seems like there's less and less like, oh yeah, like I have a separate work computer with a separate operating system.

• 1:16:04Jordi Hays?

  Chrome is very set up, Chrome is already very set up to have like profiles, like personal profiles and work.

• 1:16:11John Coogan?

  Yeah, I have, I have too. I have a personal one and a VPN one. So I don't know. Yeah. We'll have to see. I mean, the, the founder is saying like, we're going to keep working on Dia, but maybe that means in the enterprise context. Anyway, we'll have to keep an eye on like where they wind up going.

• 1:16:30Jordi Hays?

  So Mike said, again, I said this yesterday, with Dia browser, we're going to collectively redesign the browser to help knowledge workers kick butt in the AI era. And so I, that, that to me kind of reads a little prosumer, right? I don't think they're, but, but it feels like, you know, very much oriented towards people that are working in the browser.

• 1:16:53John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah. OTP says, get Saagar on here to give pushback on TFP. Bye. He's going postal about it. I, I should text him and see if he wants to hop on. We will, yeah, we'll definitely get him on when, when, when he's ready to, to. You know, go live and rip some takes. I also invited Barry Weiss. I'd love to hear her, her side of what's going on and what her plan is. It's a, it's a fascinating story. Of course, like, these are still like leaks, so most people don't want to talk until there's like finalized information. Anyway, if you're trying to design a browser, you gotta do it in Figma. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. Get started for free. And, the third big number of the day,

• 1:17:35John Coogan?

  Ramp has crossed 1 billion in revenue. Sheesh, says Tyler Hodge. A key question is whether it's gross revenue or net revenue. I think it's gross revenue, or he goes back and forth on this. But, anyway, they've been on a tear. As David Senra likes to say, "It's a great example of taking a simple idea and doing it deadly seriously." Taking a simple idea deadly seriously. I think David was quoting someone, but I attribute everyone's quotes to David's now.

• 1:18:03Jordi Hays?

  We should pull up these videos from the dinner at the White House last night.

• 1:18:08John Coogan?

  I only have one question for Eric, which is, is the job finished? So, we will figure that out today.

• 1:18:14Jordi Hays?

  Are you gonna call him?

• 1:18:15John Coogan?

  I'm, he is, he's busy. I'm gonna, I'm gonna-

• 1:18:17Jordi Hays?

  All right, play this video.

• 1:18:19John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:18:20Jordi Hays?

  Please.

• 1:18:21Speaker 06

  Tim, you've done an incredible job with Apple, little company called Apple.

• 1:18:25Speaker 07

  Thank you, Mr. President.

• 1:18:26Speaker 06

  And, very, very few people have been able to do what you've done. Congratulations.

• 1:18:30Speaker 07

  Thank you, sir. That means a lot to me. I want to thank you for including me this evening. It's incredible to be among everyone here, particularly you and the First Lady. I've always enjoyed having dinner and interacting. I want to thank you-

• 1:18:48John Coogan?

  Four thank yous.

• 1:18:49Speaker 07

  For setting the tone such that we could make a major investment in the United States and have some key manufacturing, advanced manufacturing here. I think that says a lot about your focus and your leadership and your focus on innovation. I also want to thank you for helping American companies around the world. This is a very key, key thing, and I really enjoy working with your administration on, on those topics as well, because I think they're so important to the country. I want to thank the First Lady for focusing on education.

• 1:19:28John Coogan?

  Wow.

• 1:19:29Speaker 07

  There's nothing more important than education.

• 1:19:31John Coogan?

  Do you have the glaze triple?

• 1:19:32Speaker 07

  It is the great equalizer.

• 1:19:34John Coogan?

  Triple glaze.

• 1:19:35Speaker 07

  And always will be. And so, thank you so much for including me.

• 1:19:40John Coogan?

  One shot of first cigarette.

• 1:19:42Speaker 07

  We are all different in some ways, but we all believe in the power of technology to improve people's lives. And that is the thing that binds us all together.

• 1:19:52Speaker 06

  And Tim, how much money will Apple be investing in the United States? Because I know it's a very lot. And it's, you know, you were elsewhere and now you're really coming home in a big way. How much money will you be investing?

• 1:20:06Speaker 07

  600 billion.

• 1:20:07Speaker 06

  600 billion.

• 1:20:08John Coogan?

  Whoa, there we go.

• 1:20:10Speaker 07

  We're very proud to do it.

• 1:20:11Speaker 06

  That's great. Thank you very much.

• 1:20:12Speaker 07

  Thank you.

• 1:20:13Speaker 06

  Appreciate it.

• 1:20:13Speaker 07

  Thank you, sir.

• 1:20:15John Coogan?

  Wait, is that 10? Thank you?

• 1:20:16Jordi Hays?

  I think it was 12. Somebody else had counted as 12. I was around 10.

• 1:20:21John Coogan?

  Yeah, crazy.

• 1:20:22Jordi Hays?

  But still, we should.

• 1:20:23John Coogan?

  Why wasn't Christina from Vanta there? I feel like that's key to the US's tech strategy.

• 1:20:28Jordi Hays?

  I agree.

• 1:20:28John Coogan?

  Automate, compliance, manage, risk, prove, trust, continuously. Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process.

• 1:20:35Jordi Hays?

  All right, we got to pull up this video of...

• 1:20:37John Coogan?

  With continuous automation of Zuckerberg. This was our fourth big number of the day. Zuckerberg says he will invest around $600 billion by 2028. Zuckerberg says Meta will invest $600 billion in AI infrastructure by 2028. Meta's already guided CapEx of $70 billion in 2025 and $100 billion in 2026. So that's a big ramp to go from 70 to 100. And then they still got $430 billion to do in '27 and '28 to actually reach $600 billion. Spending would need to jump to $200 billion in 2027 and $300 billion in 2028. That's a lot of dollars.

• 1:21:16Jordi Hays?

  Video in the timeline.

• 1:21:18John Coogan?

  Let's play it.

• 1:21:21Speaker 05

  This is quite a group to get together and I think you know all of the companies here are building just making huge investments in the country in order to build out data centers and infrastructure to power the next wave of innovation. So it's you know, we don't often get together as the CEOs of the different companies, but it's good to see everyone.

• 1:21:44Speaker 06

  How much are you spending, would you say, over the next few years?

• 1:21:47Speaker 05

  Oh, gosh. I mean, I think it's probably going to be something like

• 1:21:52John Coogan?

  601

• 1:21:53Speaker 05

  At least 600 billion dollars

• 1:21:57Speaker 05

  in the US.

• 1:21:59John Coogan?

  That's amazing.

• 1:22:00Speaker 05

  No, it's significant.

• 1:22:02Speaker 06

  That's a lot. Thank you, Mark. It's great to have you.

• 1:22:05Speaker 05

  Thank you. Well, thanks for hosting us.

• 1:22:07John Coogan?

  That's awesome.

• 1:22:07Jordi Hays?

  Wait, so does anybody in the chat know if which of them went first?

• 1:22:12John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:22:13Jordi Hays?

  Because because that number that number does not align with that number does not align with with Meta's stated capex.

• 1:22:22John Coogan?

  Yes, yeah, it doesn't appear in the SEC filings yet, but it is like very forward looking and

• 1:22:26Jordi Hays?

  No, it was 2028.

• 1:22:27John Coogan?

  2028, which is something that they might not actually put out or might not be demanded by the by Wall Street, but it's hilarious. Anyway, whatever they do, they're going to have to do it on graphite graphite dev code review for the age of AI graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster, get started for free.

• 1:22:45Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, so Meta guided capex of 70 billion in 2025 and 100 billion in 2026. So to get to 600 billion spending would need to jump to 200 billion in 2027 and 300 billion in 2028.

• 1:22:57John Coogan?

  Yeah, what's interesting is that so these numbers are like insanely big and obviously it looks like a big acceleration relative to past capex numbers, but I'm so inured to big numbers now because of the fast takeoff crowd that was like, oh, yeah, like trillion dollar build out data center like next year for sure, like AI 2027, like it's going to be 10 trillion.

• 1:23:20Jordi Hays?

  It's 500 billion.

• 1:23:22John Coogan?

  And so like when I hear 600 billion, I'm like, Yeah, yeah, that sounds like totally reasonable. Like, I think they'll definitely hit that. And I don't know, but they probably will. Like, it doesn't seem like there's many barriers in the way. Like, it's just continue to grow the core business, run more ads, dump the profits into CapEx, build some more data centers. Semi Analysis, Doug Lofflin over at Fabricated Knowledge has a good deep dive today on the glut of lagging edge chips that I think we might have a chance to get to in a little bit. But it was a fun dinner. Are there any other videos that we should play from the White House dinner? I like the idea of, this is like, this is kind of new podcast format. Just have a dinner with everyone, have some cameras there.

• 1:24:07Speaker 04

  And just yap.

• 1:24:07John Coogan?

  Just yap. Yeah, that's good. What's up, Tyler?

• 1:24:10Speaker 04

  I don't have another video, but there is, there was a photo that came out. I'll send it to the chat. But it was like, the full dinner. And right at the very edge, I'm pretty sure it's Dylan Field.

• 1:24:19John Coogan?

  It is.

• 1:24:19Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:24:20John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. So someone had the full breakdown here. It's in the deck, much deeper. Let me, let me pull it up. Where is it? The full list of people who attended the dinner is, wow, there's a lot of stuff. Okay, so Ed Ludlow has it. The full list of attendees at President Trump's dinner with tech leaders, the President, the First Lady, Susie Wiles, Sergey Brin, Geraldine Gilbert-Soto, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, Anna Brockman, Safra Kats at Oracle, Galterash, Jason Chang, Meredith O'Rourke, Natalie Dompe, Tony Fabrizio, Dylan Field, John Herring, Jared Isaacman. Jared Isaacman, oh, I guess he was.

• 1:25:04Speaker 04

  You're missing one.

• 1:25:04John Coogan?

  Yeah, Elon didn't go, but isn't, isn't, oh, Chamath is in here. So Sunny Madra, Sachin Adella, Chamath Palihapitiya, Sundar Pichai, Mark Pincus, Vivek Ranadive, who owns the Golden State Warriors. And I believe Vivek Ranadive is the, the, like, the guy who worked with Chamath on the first SPACs, and Vivek Ranadive kind of like pioneered that format almost.

• 1:25:28Speaker 04

  Did you say Lisa Su from AMD?

• 1:25:30John Coogan?

  Lisa Su made it. David Sacks, Shom Sankar from Palantir. We missed him yesterday. He was at this dinner in DC. Jamie Simonoff, Alex Wang, Sanjay Marota, Tim Cook, David Limp, Mark Zuckerberg, and Bill Gates. What a crew. Jensen didn't make it. So. The fact that Jensen and Elon are not there, I feel like you shouldn't read too much into it. It's kind of just like Trump catching up with a bunch of people, but I don't know. There's also like this, yeah, I don't know. They have like falling out, but it seems like they've kind of patched it up. I don't know. Always, always hard to read too much into this stuff. But speaking of Elon Musk, he didn't need to be at the White House because he's setting up a $1 trillion pay package.

• 1:26:15Jordi Hays?

  Nine hundred and seventy-five billion.

• 1:26:18John Coogan?

  Oh, it's not a trillion, just a little bit shy. Okay, so the update is Tesla's board has greenlit a fresh pay package for CEO Elon Musk. If he hits 400 billion in adjusted EBITDA, he deploys 1 million robotaxis for commercial use, ships out 1 million energy storage units, produces and delivers 20 million vehicles, secures 1 million of ongoing FSD subscriptions, aim for a 8.5 trillion dollar market cap.

• 1:26:48Jordi Hays?

  The gold retrievers are barking.

• 1:26:50John Coogan?

  Seven and a half to 10 years in the CEO role. The starting share price is $334.09. The package includes 12% of company stock divided into 12 segments. And so Signal says this is a masterclass in how to design incentives. This deeply ties Elon's upside on the world radically improving. If he actually hits those milestones, the value unleashed for society dwarfs his payout. Most CEO comp is rent seeking. This is moonshot seeking. I completely agree. Every pay package for executives should be this absurd on both sides for the company and the individual. And this was exactly my take. It's like bet on yourself.

• 1:27:28Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, and he's done this, he's done this before, right?

• 1:27:30John Coogan?

  And Dan Primack, when, when the, when the pay package, the most recent pay package came into, under like legal scrutiny, Dan Primack was like, I liked this when it was announced. And I thought it was crazy. And everyone thought it was impossible that he would pull it off. And he did. So he deserves it. And so it was this crazy legal battle, but it was actually aligned with exactly what a CEO should be doing, creating shareholder value. This should be a model for CEO comp going forward, in my opinion. Another side of this, which is increasing a founder CEO stake by doing aggressive stock buybacks. But this is a way cooler because it incentivizes bold investments and huge capex on factories,

• 1:28:10John Coogan?

  moonshot technology gambles and generally thinking in decades. So I'm super stoked about it. I think it's, I think it's good. I hope it holds.

• 1:28:18Jordi Hays?

  It's a good way to signal, I mean, they're, they're very much signaling to the base.

• 1:28:23John Coogan?

  We're going.

• 1:28:23Jordi Hays?

  Tesla army that, that there's a lot of potential upside.

• 1:28:27John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 1:28:28Jordi Hays?

  Chris Camilo said earlier, been tracking XAI is accelerating cash burn, flattening user growth monetization and fundraising struggle since the beginning of this year. And I don't see how they last another 12 months without a Tesla or Elon bailout. I mean, saying, I don't see how they last another 12 months without a, the founder bailing them out. It's like, that's kind of the founder's job. Bail out the company, but I thought this was relevant because I do think that part of this, part of setting up this pay package could set up a scenario where XAI gets just merged into Tesla and it becomes a standalone. It, it just all gets rolled in.

• 1:29:08John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah. I mean, Tesla has, I mean, Carpathia worked there. Like it's, it's a fantastic AI organization. And it makes sense that there would be a lot of overlap in, in what they do. I, I guess there's probably.

• 1:29:20Jordi Hays?

  And I mean, if X, the everything app was part of a public company again, how is that not, how does that get valued at less than eight and a half trillion, right?

• 1:29:29John Coogan?

  That's a good point.

• 1:29:30Jordi Hays?

  With, with Elon having that ace up his sleeve, the fact that we're all addicted to this app.

• 1:29:36John Coogan?

  Yeah. I mean, I mean, I, I guess it's good that there's other milestones in there that, that you can't just like, uh, merge everything together because if you merge.

• 1:29:43Jordi Hays?

  It is, it is funny to think about some of the different milestones though. It's like, shipping out one million energy storage units feels like wildly like, does this even need to be included if you're going to deploy one million robotaxis for commercial use?

• 1:29:58John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:59Jordi Hays?

  That one seems a little bit, uh, I don't know, easy sandbag? Who knows?