Anduril Laptop, DoorDash + Instacart, Gavin Baker Joins | Miles Arnone, Rahul Sengottuvelu

(01:47) - Anduril Laptop (17:16) - Apple Unveils New Macbook Pro (21:12) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (22:54) - OpenAI Announces Three New Discoveries (36:51) - Anthropic Founders Can Name Secret Successors (39:23) - China's AI Bubble is Already Bursting (43:34) - AI Startup Dating Show Goes Viral (47:57) - DoorDash + Instacart (54:24) - Harley-Davidson's Electric Motorcycle Stalls (59:57) - Miles Arnone discusses his role as co-founder and CEO of Rebuild Manufacturing, a 2,000-person company restoring U. S. industrial capacity through engineering, domestic production, and new hard-tech ventures. He outlines Rebuild’s acquisition strategy, advances in affordable drone and vehicle manufacturing, skepticism toward overreliance on robotics, and a $2.1 billion fundraise led by JPMorgan Chase and General Catalyst. (01:12:43) - Rahul Sengottuvelu discusses Ramp’s expansion into AI-powered financial and software automation as the company’s CTO. He introduces Inspect, a secure, collaborative, multi-model coding agent designed to handle complex codebases, integrate with company systems, and give finance teams visibility and control over AI spending. (01:21:12) - Gavin Baker discusses the accelerating adoption and strong economics of AI, emphasizing Anthropic’s diversified customer base, surging demand for compute, and the transformative potential of AI agents. The Atreides Management managing partner also shares his optimistic investment outlook on infrastructure, biology, energy, and broader public participation in the AI economy. (02:02:40) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions TBPN is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Public - https://public.com Cisco - https://www.cisco.com Console - https://www.console.com CrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.com Figma - https://www.figma.com MongoDB - https://www.mongodb.com NYSE - https://www.nyse.com Railway - https://railway.com Shopify - https://www.shopify.com Codex - http://openAI.com/codex Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tbpn/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  You're watching TVBN.

• 0:03Speaker 01

  Today is Tuesday, October 27, 2026.

• 0:07Speaker 00

  Look at that angle. Go back to that other angle.

• 0:10Speaker 01

  The temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. We got some, we had a math breakthrough. We had a math breakthrough. We have been trying to calculate, it's really, really hard, the number of days till Christmas. So you take the, the, the date of Christmas, December 25th, 2026, and then you subtract the number of days, October 27th, 2026. And it's difficult because the different months have different numbers of days in them. Some of them, some of them 30, some of them 31. So it's a complex math equation, but we had a breakthrough and we have a countdown to show you the results of this mathematical finding. They're saying Fields Medal for this. They're saying huge development, 58 days until Christmas.

• 0:54Speaker 01

  And Nikesh Shvar is 58 years old.

• 0:57Speaker 00

  Fun fact.

• 0:58Speaker 01

  Doesn't look a day over 40 personally, but truly.

• 1:02Speaker 01

  Anyway, let me tell you about ramp.com. Time is money. Save both. Easy use corporate cards, bill pay accounting and a whole lot more all in one place. We have ramp CTO coming on the show at 1210. We also have Gavin Baker from Atreides Management coming on at 1220.

• 1:16Speaker 00

  The Baconator.

• 1:18Speaker 01

  The Baconator. The Baconator. I don't know.

• 1:22Speaker 00

  And the big question on everyone's minds.

• 1:25Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:25Speaker 00

  As he breaks his silence.

• 1:27Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:27Speaker 00

  Is he generally bullish?

• 1:28Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 1:29Speaker 00

  Right? We're gonna get to the bottom of it.

• 1:31Speaker 01

  We're gonna get to the bottom.

• 1:32Speaker 00

  Gonna find out.

• 1:32Speaker 01

  No, it's, uh, it's great. Uh, so yeah, I mean, uh, obviously you can watch the show yesterday for the anthropic stuff. That's what's on the cover of the, the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times. Um, but there's a couple of other stories that are interesting. So, uh, we're, we're, we're gonna, you know, continue covering what's going on in the market, but, uh, this new project from Palmer Lucky over at Anduril is very, very interesting and very fun. It's a new laptop. So Anduril and Qualcomm just announced a new American-made laptop called Blue Chip. The first laptop they're saying is going to be available in 2027. That's right around the corner. They're gonna build it for the government. And so you're not gonna be able to get one of these personally, unfortunately, but hopefully there's a, uh, there's a consumer product in the works eventually because,

• 2:15Speaker 01

  increasingly it's with AI and stuff, it's pretty doable to use Windows to go back and forth between Windows, Mac, even throw on some Linux. Uh, all these different OSs are very fungible, mutable. You can sort of change and do whatever you need to. If you need a particular piece of software, like I always had this where on PC, Windows has amazing, uh, window management, kind of in the name, but if you have two screens, you can just hit the Windows key and then left and it'll put it perfectly on 50% of the screen to the left, 50% of the screen to the right. And for like years and years and years, uh, Apple didn't have that. Uh, I use like this third-party, plugin called like Move, Move and Zoom, and it would kind of do the window arrangement if you were trying to, um, use like layout multiple,

• 3:00Speaker 01

  uh, windows at the same time on Mac. Mac has since gotten the feature, but whatever feature is, you know, hot in Windows or hot in Mac, you're just gonna be able to vibe code what exactly what you want and be able to do it usually, unless it's like some crazy server-side stuff. But in general, uh, I'm very bullish on new hardware, new, uh, new mutable hardware. And I love the fact that this one is gonna be made in America. What's interesting is, you know, Palmer is obviously been on the reindustrialization train for years. Uh, Andurall is a big piece of that. Mod Retro is also pushing for that. Uh, it's part of the thesis, reindustrialization. He's spoken at the reindustrialized conference about this. Clearly cares about, uh, bringing manufacturing capacity back to America. And it certainly seems like it's a good time,

• 3:44Speaker 01

  uh, in the age of AI to have a lot of, uh, you know, indigenous supply chains around, um, manufacturing of both consumer and, uh, enterprise equipment. Uh, but he's quoted as saying, uh, it'll be the first time in over 20 years that, uh, it'll be the first, uh, first time in over 20 years that a laptop was made in America. And I want to fact check that. And I think it's actually worse than what he said. I think he was underselling it. I think it is like way over 20 years. I think the last one that American-made laptop went into production like 93, but, uh, Jackson over there on our team, uh, who's dressed down today, there's no Dale Earnhardt going on, little quiet luxury going on in the Ultra.

• 4:25Speaker 00

  Brutal.

• 4:26Speaker 01

  So this is the Blue Chip. This is from, uh, for this is from Anduril and Qualcomm. Uh, it's built for government, defense, first responders and public safety workers. So maybe the way to get your hands on this, volunteer firefighter, you know, volunteer police officer, you do some ride-alongs, they give you the Blue Chip, maybe. I don't know. Uh, this is gonna be a hot commodity. So any way you can get your hand on it, uh, is, uh, is probably valuable.

• 4:51Speaker 00

  Quick breaking news. It is Nolly's in the YouTube chats, birthday.

• 4:56Speaker 01

  Oh, happy birthday.

• 4:58Speaker 00

  It's great to have you here today. I hope you're having a wonderful, I hope it's the best birthday of your life.

• 5:04Speaker 01

  Is, is that, is his, is the birthday too close to Christmas? Is there, is this a birthday that you're like, oh, people are gonna start gifting you like combined gifts? Cause they're like, oh, your birthday is so close to Christmas, only 50 days apart.

• 5:17Speaker 00

  Saying that to me?

• 5:18Speaker 01

  No, to him. 50, he's 50 days, 58 days away.

• 5:21Speaker 00

  But I'm, I'm, I'm ours.

• 5:26Speaker 01

  I never realized that about you. That's like, I mean, I, I obviously knew, but, uh, the, the implications and the ramifications, you know, it changed you as a person.

• 5:34Speaker 00

  Yeah, this may as well be road to my birthday.

• 5:37Speaker 01

  Yes, yes. But it's, it's sort of foundational lore, like, like you were born, you know, so close to Christmas.

• 5:43Speaker 00

  I was born.

• 5:44Speaker 01

  Spirit is embedded in you.

• 5:46Speaker 00

  The farthest I could possibly be away from Christmas.

• 5:50Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah. So you had to grind.

• 5:52Speaker 00

  For me, my whole life.

• 5:53Speaker 01

  364 days a year.

• 5:54Speaker 00

  All I knew.

• 5:55Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 5:56Speaker 00

  All I knew was that, that initial road.

• 5:58Speaker 01

  It's kind of a nightmare. Yeah. Okay.

• 6:00Speaker 00

  Yeah. But it formed me into the man I am today.

• 6:03Speaker 01

  When you were in the delivery room, being born into this world, you had the hardest road to Christmas possible.

• 6:09Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 6:09Speaker 01

  364 days to Christmas. That's brutal. I'm glad you overcame that, but it's, it's impressive what you've done.

• 6:15Speaker 00

  Anyways, um, Nolly's, thanks for being here with us. Happy birthday. Back to the show.

• 6:21Speaker 01

  Anyway, uh, let's pull up the Blue Chip launch video because I want to see what Palmer Lucky has to say about this new American-made laptop, uh, from his own voice.

• 6:32Speaker 02

  America built the first electronic computer to win a war. During World War II, the US Army Ordnance Corps needed a faster way to accurately calculate artillery firing trajectories. So American engineers built the world's first modern computer, and that breakthrough kicked off an entire industry that changed the world. Then we gave it away. We outsourced the manufacturing of the technology that we invented. Now we depend on other countries, including our greatest strategic adversaries, to make all of the hardware that runs our businesses, powers our economy and protects our national security. That's insane. Any country that can't build its own computers can't secure them. If you don't control your technology,

• 7:12Speaker 02

  you can't control your future. 80 years ago, America pioneered modern computing to defend our nation. Now we're bringing it home. This is Blue Chip. American designed, American built. Other companies might design their computers in the US. Anduril makes them here. It, we're making parts out of metals that the US knows how to extract, knows how to refine, knows how to process, and knows how to mill at scale at a reasonable price. And that goes for the entire laptop. The same thing goes for the battery technology. We need to design things that survive very, very rough environments. And so what we've designed is a chassis that makes it very, very easy

• 7:51Speaker 02

  to replace the bottom shell and even the top shell, which you can easily integrate things like, uh, solar panels, other soft goods, other service insignias, even things.

• 8:00Speaker 00

  Imagine LARPing with this.

• 8:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, when I'm a volunteer firefighter, I'm gonna be pulling this out all the time.

• 8:07Speaker 02

  Anduril is making sure that the machines we depend on every day are machines we can actually manufacture ourselves.

• 8:14Speaker 01

  This frustrates Jordy incessantly.

• 8:17Speaker 02

  This is America's birthright.

• 8:18Speaker 01

  Cause he doesn't have one and he wants one. He's jealous.

• 8:23Speaker 01

  Okay. So a couple of problems with this launch video. Uh, there was, there were no, there was no video of caveman making fire. There, there was no video of the Model T.

• 8:32Speaker 00

  No Wright Brothers.

• 8:33Speaker 01

  No Wright Brothers, no Wright Brothers, and then no moon landing. How did they?

• 8:37Speaker 00

  How am I supposed to know what to feel?

• 8:39Speaker 01

  Yeah. And then no nuclear bomb detonating, just actual relevant footage to the product that they're launching.

• 8:46Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 8:46Speaker 01

  And a direct history and clear message from the founder and the creator of the product. Yeah, it's sort of odd. Uh, and.

• 8:55Speaker 00

  Really bucking the trend. I don't even know what to think about it.

• 8:57Speaker 01

  It's contrarian. It might work, but it seems so risky to not include at least, at least about old scientists.

• 9:05Speaker 00

  30 to 60 seconds. Yeah.

• 9:07Speaker 01

  Yeah. Cut really fast, you know?

• 9:09Speaker 00

  Yeah. Three seconds, three seconds, three seconds.

• 9:12Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah. Like the, I mean, at this point, like the, the, the rules have been established. You have to copy the founder's fund Vibreal. If you're launching anything, doesn't matter what you're launching.

• 9:22Speaker 00

  What was it? 2019?

• 9:23Speaker 01

  It was 2019 or.

• 9:24Speaker 00

  2020?

• 9:25Speaker 01

  Yeah. Annual meeting 2020, something like that.

• 9:28Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 9:29Speaker 01

  Mike over there, fantastic, uh, kind of invented the genre of Vibreal and, uh, of course mixed a lot of things together in an interesting way that was not just pure tech. There's a whole bunch of other culture stuff in there. Uh, but, uh, this is, uh, you know, jokes aside, this is a great launch video because it's only giving you the B-roll for the, for what's relevant. So like, he's talking about the history of the American-made computer and they show you what the military was up to at that time. And then he talks about the computer that they made and they show you the computer. It's like, this is the way you do a launch video. Uh, very, very exciting.

• 10:07Speaker 00

  Yeah. The Vibreal launch video is so dead, you can only bring it back in the year 2050. By 2050.

• 10:17Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:17Speaker 00

  I think it will be kind of a cool nod.

• 10:20Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:21Speaker 00

  To the 2020s.

• 10:24Speaker 00

  To use it. It'll be kind of like an if you know, you know thing and it'll be fresh again. But for now, simply do not do it for the next.

• 10:32Speaker 01

  I know why you're so annoyed by the all the knockoff Ibrils. It's because it's beating a dead horse and we love horses around here.

• 10:41Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 10:41Speaker 01

  And so it's extremely rude to beat dead horses generally, and this is a dead horse that we definitely don't want to be beating.

• 10:47Speaker 00

  Yeah, don't beat any horses.

• 10:49Speaker 01

  Don't beat any horses, alive or dead, actually. Yeah. So in that video, Palmer explains how American engineers built the world's first modern computer, and that breakthrough kicked off the computing industry. According to Palmer, any country that can't build its own computers can't secure them. That's a really good point, especially in the era of potential hardware flaws that could create cybersecurity risk. We got to secure this. I've heard, I don't know if it's actually like a confirmed story, but that at one point or maybe currently like the NSA has their own fab to make chips because they don't want to make computers that run their code that are insecure because what if a foreign country inserts a backdoor into the chips that they're racking to run their code?

• 11:32Speaker 01

  So they want to own the vertical stack, but it's very small scale and it's also not the cutting edge, you know, fab process that is available internationally. But it's like, good enough for what they were doing at the time. But I think that might just be a rumor. But if you don't control your technology, you can't control your future, Palmer says. Eighty years ago, America pioneered modern computing to defend our nation. Now we're bringing it home. What do you think of the design?

• 12:03Speaker 00

  I like it.

• 12:05Speaker 01

  Anything else to say about it?

• 12:06Speaker 00

  I think it's good. I think the strap is good.

• 12:10Speaker 01

  Okay, Tyler Cosgrove for you, commenting hot. No, I like, I like the fact that it has this like rough texture on the top, but then it has this little cutout for like a little bit more geometric detail and they cut the corner off. I don't know if you can see it, but if you zoom in, there's a little bit more going on.

• 12:25Speaker 00

  I think it's good, and I also think they designed it well.

• 12:27Speaker 01

  Okay, got it. Thank you. That's fantastic. So, so let's go through quick history lesson.

• 12:33Speaker 00

  No, it would be like, the funny thing is, from a retail standpoint, it would be really cool to have just an extremely rugged computer. Like, part of what I love about, part of what I love about an iPhone is you could really, like you could really hammer on it and it's good, right? I mean, it certainly shows it's, it definitely is, you know, not doing anything that doesn't happen day to day, falling on the ground and things like that.

• 13:01Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 13:02Speaker 00

  But having like a really rugged, robust, personal computer would be cool. Like throwing it across the room, throwing it on the couch, throwing it at you.

• 13:10Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 13:10Speaker 00

  Like if I have a funny video on my computer, if I could just chuck it at you.

• 13:13Speaker 01

  Okay, yeah. So, let's go through the history of American made computers. Give a listen, give us a little bit more detail on the history here, how America built them and then lost the capability to build them domestically. So the Osborne One, founded in California, built in 1981, first commercially successful portable computer. It had a five inch screen, smaller than an iPhone, two floppy drives, 64 KB of memory, kilobytes, not even a meg of memory, now we're in gigs of memory. And it was priced at $1,795. That's pretty expensive. The company filed for bankruptcy in 93, just two years after launching it.

• 13:55Speaker 01

  But you can see there, you pull that out, people know you're doing business, don't you think? I think that makes a statement. What do you think?

• 14:02Speaker 00

  Oh, I love it.

• 14:02Speaker 01

  You want a Frisbee computer? What are you laughing at?

• 14:05Speaker 00

  No, I love this. I mean, imagine pulling this out on like a commercial aircraft, you know, in the 80s and just click clacking away. And that'd be electric.

• 14:16Speaker 01

  So Grid Systems, which was founded in 1979, launched the Grid Compass in 1982. This is the first true laptop looking device. That other one is kind of a box. This looks a little bit more like a laptop, built with a folding screen. It was priced around $8,000 and it was used by NASA aboard the space shuttle. That's a fun fact. Then in the early 80s and 90s, we saw the first mass market laptops in the hands of consumers. Houston based Compaq launched the LTE in, I think Jack's just thinking of the Texas Victory.

• 14:48Speaker 00

  From the H, straight out of the A.

• 14:49Speaker 01

  In 1989, it delivered nearly desktop equivalent IBM PC, IBM compatible PC in a six pound notebook sized package with battery power and floppy disks. Then in 1991, Apple launched the Power Book. And look at Apple's design language back then. This was 1991.

• 15:09Speaker 00

  Wow.

• 15:09Speaker 01

  Ninety-one.

• 15:10Speaker 00

  Insane stagnation.

• 15:12Speaker 01

  You think this is better than what they got going on now?

• 15:15Speaker 00

  No, no, I was just like, the, like, we were just like, you know, the, the,

• 15:19Speaker 01

  Oh, getting so much better.

• 15:20Speaker 00

  20th century was just like,

• 15:21Speaker 01

  Oh, you're watching everything getting so much better. And then for the last like 10 years, it's been like another MacBook.

• 15:25Speaker 00

  I'm looking at my computer and I'm looking at that and it's like, it's a gray notebook.

• 15:30Speaker 01

  It's the same thing.

• 15:31Speaker 00

  Keyboard.

• 15:32Speaker 01

  I think that, I think that the 90s were like a big, still like a big leg up in the capabilities and the function and you get the touchscreen, like, or the touchpad, you get the screen that goes all the way to the edges. Like, there's a, there's another.

• 15:44Speaker 00

  I'm psyched on the 90s.

• 15:46Speaker 01

  But I agree that in the last 10 years.

• 15:48Speaker 00

  What happened since then.

• 15:49Speaker 01

  Okay, okay. So by the late 1990s and the early 2000s, companies like Dell, Apple, Compaq, IBM, were increasingly relying on manufacturers in Japan, Taiwan, and China to actually build the laptops. Some laptops like Dell's notebooks and the IBM ThinkPad T30 were still being assembled in the United States well into the 2000s. Lenovo even reported, reopened their North Carolina manufacturing line in 2012 to bring back laptop production, but it never became a large scale revival of the American laptop industry. But American laptop manufacturing has never returned to the levels it reached in the 1980s and 90s. So Anduril and Qualcomm are trying to change that. More than 90% of the procurement cost for blue chips, prototype components already comes

• 16:34Speaker 01

  from the US or allied country suppliers. Anduril also plans to manufacture laptops in the United States, including circuit board assembly at Arsenal One, the facility in Ohio. So fun, fun project, very excited for this, but there are a ton of, of, you know, roadblocks and milestones that they need to hit because the supply chain is so complex that as you go, even if you assemble it here, you need to figure out how do you do this displays? How do you do the memory here? How do you do the chip here? There's a whole stack that's very, very complicated. But of course, they are partnering with allied countries as well. And here's the stagnation mobile itself, the stagnation book, as you call it.

• 17:16Speaker 01

  Apple has officially unveiled the 14 inch MacBook Pro with the powerful M6 chip. Pre-orders start October 28th, tomorrow. It has 12 core CPU, 30% faster graphics, it's thinner, lighter, faster, stronger, all the same thing. 24 hours of battery life.

• 17:35Speaker 00

  Changes everything.

• 17:35Speaker 01

  Looks like a MacBook Pro, because we were sort of at the end of history there. Same thing with the iPhone, like the new iPhone looks like the iPhone from five years ago. It's a little thinner, lighter, faster, stronger, all that. But basically the same device. There are, the rumor from the Germinator is that they're doing a touchscreen one, which feels a little incremental to me. I don't know. I, I, the touchscreen has been around, touchscreen laptop has been around for a while. It's mostly just been like a jump scare for BDRs who are rocking a Windows PC with a touchscreen and they can just go like, and you're like, whoa, what are you doing? Yeah? Have you ever seen anyone do that?

• 18:13Speaker 00

  Yeah. Yeah. What, what's, you know, people, some people think all laptops are touchscreens.

• 18:21Speaker 01

  That's true.

• 18:22Speaker 00

  And it's deeply offensive to my culture.

• 18:26Speaker 01

  Well, it's going to get more confusing.

• 18:27Speaker 00

  Well, yeah, it's going to get way more confusing.

• 18:29Speaker 01

  Because a lot of people are going to assume you have the touchscreen.

• 18:31Speaker 00

  Yeah, nothing worse than somebody, you know, looking at something on your screen and putting their, putting their grubby fingers on your screen.

• 18:39Speaker 00

  The, the question is, if they do a touchscreen MacBook Pro, will, will it be a lot easier to clean?

• 18:45Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 18:45Speaker 00

  Like, you know, the iPhone, you can see fingerprints, but at least you can wipe it off pretty easily.

• 18:50Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 18:51Speaker 00

  And so that's my, that's my hope.

• 18:53Speaker 01

  Do you think a?

• 18:56Speaker 00

  It is going to be, it is going to be, I'm interested to see like, do they reinforce the hinge so you can really like properly press on it? Or is it going to be like your, you know, like,

• 19:05Speaker 01

  You want like a boxing game where you can punch really hard?

• 19:08Speaker 00

  Look what's happening. Look what's happening.

• 19:10Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 19:10Speaker 00

  Like,

• 19:11Speaker 01

  That's actually a good point. Yeah.

• 19:13Speaker 00

  They're going to have to reinforce it, otherwise it'll just be like, again, like, you're going to see like another wave of like, you know, 10,000 posts, like Steve Jobs would be, you know.

• 19:24Speaker 01

  Man, he's set the bar too high. It's so annoying.

• 19:27Speaker 00

  That's the whole point.

• 19:28Speaker 01

  I guess you're right. Yeah.

• 19:29Speaker 00

  That's the whole point.

• 19:30Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 19:31Speaker 00

  The bar was set so high that you had decades of the world's best product design and development.

• 19:37Speaker 01

  Every other company, people are just like,

• 19:38Speaker 00

  In human history.

• 19:38Speaker 01

  Oh, this is like a pretty good upgrade. And whenever it's Apple, it's like Steve Jobs would never allow this, blah, blah, blah. There are some, there are some funky stuff in the old Jobs era Apple portfolio. There are some odd devices. Like, let's be clear, it's not all, not all. We only remember, we have a little bit of selective memory with the Jobs era Apple products.

• 20:00Speaker 01

  Let me tell you about MongoDB. What's the only faster than the AI market? Your business on MongoDB. Don't just build AI. Own the data platform that powers it.

• 20:09Speaker 01

  Do you think a hot dog is a sandwich?

• 20:13Speaker 00

  Uh, no. It's a hot dog.

• 20:15Speaker 01

  What about you?

• 20:16Speaker 00

  No.

• 20:17Speaker 01

  No. Do you know why people debate that?

• 20:21Speaker 00

  Because it's like meat in between bread.

• 20:23Speaker 01

  It kind of counts. What if you split the bun so it's two separate buns? You know, if, if the bun breaks into two, does that count as a sandwich then?

• 20:32Speaker 00

  No, because no one. No one would refer to that as a sandwich.

• 20:34Speaker 01

  What if you slice the hot dog thinly and assemble it like it's a ham sandwich then? At what point does you, does the deconstruction of the hot dog become a sandwich?

• 20:45Speaker 00

  I think if it's like, yeah, if it's really thin and it's basically completely flat, there's no kind of

• 20:49Speaker 01

  And you use white bread?

• 20:51Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 20:51Speaker 01

  And you're just slicing hot dogs? Yeah, is there someone who had a really strong opinion on hot dog being a sandwich? What if you turn it like this, you know, instead of eating it like this, you eat it like this? No? Okay, is the iPhone Duo a laptop? No? It folds like a laptop. Have you seen these videos?

• 21:10Speaker 00

  There's no keyboard.

• 21:10Speaker 01

  Pull up, pull up this video from Techy Boost Deals. Apple Duo running a full MacBook Pro style screen. This is not a laptop?

• 21:22Speaker 00

  You make some good points.

• 21:23Speaker 01

  I'm getting close, right?

• 21:25Speaker 00

  You make some good points.

• 21:26Speaker 01

  Look at the, there's another, the, the, the next video. Person doing full CAD on it. Look at this, look at this. You're telling me this isn't a laptop? I think it, I think it kind of counts as a laptop.

• 21:38Speaker 00

  Can someone on the team?

• 21:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 21:41Speaker 00

  Just take one for the team and get it?

• 21:43Speaker 01

  Get the next one.

• 21:45Speaker 00

  Is it, is it still, so, so my question is, is it still really hard to get?

• 21:49Speaker 01

  I don't know.

• 21:50Speaker 00

  Because obviously, you know, it's been dunked on a million billion times over the last week. And so I wonder if that's causing people to

• 21:57Speaker 01

  That's cool. That's a laptop. Right? Fun. Anyway, I don't know.

• 22:03Speaker 00

  You, you love, you love a good circus.

• 22:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 22:09Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 22:10Speaker 00

  A question from the chat, when is Gavin Baker on? He is on at 12?

• 22:14Speaker 01

  In one hour.

• 22:15Speaker 00

  20?

• 22:15Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 22:16Speaker 00

  PM Pacific time.

• 22:18Speaker 01

  So let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI, their business is security. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches.

• 22:27Speaker 00

  Hear that?

• 22:28Speaker 01

  Backing up the truck.

• 22:29Speaker 00

  For CrowdStrike?

• 22:30Speaker 01

  Yes. Wait, why?

• 22:35Speaker 00

  Their services are in demand?

• 22:36Speaker 01

  Oh, okay, okay. Everyone's backing up the truck for CrowdStrike, yeah. I want a sound effect of CrowdStriking the gong or something like that every time.

• 22:44Speaker 00

  Well, we do that ourselves.

• 22:45Speaker 01

  I guess we do, I guess we do. Anyway, OpenAI has some additional announcements in the, in the world of math. Dan Roberts says, "We are announcing three new discoveries in mathematics, computer science, and physics about harmonic analysis, complexity theory, and quantum field theory." And this was a post that went out and it, it, it had to make it through the wringer to actually have the impact that I think it eventually did. Andrew Curran contextualized a little bit more. OpenAI has announced three new discoveries in mathematics and computer science. Local smoothing and the Kayaconjecture, Kakyah Conjecture. The exponential time hypothesis is false. You asked, they answered.

• 23:29Speaker 00

  Exposed for not being

• 23:30Speaker 01

  I do not pretend to know this. I, I'm not an advanced mathematician by any stretch of the imagination.

• 23:37Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 23:38Speaker 01

  Oh, oh, okay, break it down for us. Get out the whiteboard. Explain the exponential time hypothesis. Explain the Kakyah Conjecture. Everyone was asking. But, but people, people were excited about this. There's a big, long post from Rashab Karnawat, who says, "Many of you don't understand how serious this is. That's me. So let me break it down for you. In computer science, there's a famous kind of puzzle called three sat. You are given a long list of yes or no switches and a set of rules about how they must be arranged, and you have to find a combination that satisfies every rule. The obvious way to solve it is to try every combination, but each new switch doubles the number of possibilities.

• 24:20Speaker 01

  So a puzzle with a few hundred switches would take longer than the age of the universe to brute force. So it becomes exponentially complex. For decades, the smartest people in the field found clever tricks that made this a little faster, but every trick still hit the same wall. The time required kept exploding as the puzzle grew. For about, about 25 years ago, two computer sciences, scientists, Russell Impaglazio and Ramamohan Paturi, working with Francis Zane, turned that wall into a formal idea. They proposed the exponential time hypothesis, which says this explosion is no longer a failure of human cleverness, but a law of nature, no algorithm, however brilliant, will ever solve three sat

• 25:05Speaker 01

  without the time blowing up exponentially. Nobody could prove it, but almost everyone believed it, and it became one of the foundations of modern computer science. Researchers used it as a measuring stick. If you could show that solving some other problem quickly could, would also crack three sat quickly, you had shown that the problem was hopelessly hard too. Hundreds of papers, cross scheduling graphs, logic, and much more rest on this one assumption. Now, an internal model at OpenAI claims to have broken it. It says it found an algorithm that solves these puzzles meaningfully faster than the hypothesis allows, and it has checked the proof in a computer verification called, system called Lean. And here's the remarkable part. The very people who proposed the hypothesis, along with MIT's Ryan Williams,

• 25:49Speaker 01

  are now leading the public review of whether a machine has disproved their own idea. So what happens next? If the disproof holds, a large part of theoretical computer science has to be revisited. Every result that said this problem cannot be solved faster, assuming ETH loses its foundation, and researchers will have to work out which of those walls were real and which were simply stopped looking, which they stopped looking at. It does not mean everything becomes easy. The new algorithm is still slow in absolute terms, and this is not the famous P versus NP problem being solved. But it means our map of what's possible was wrong in a place where we were very confident about it and that AI redrew the line. If the disproof falls, the hypothesis survives and the field breathes out,

• 26:34Speaker 01

  but we still have watched an AI produce serious, checkable work on one of the deepest questions in the discipline closely enough that the founders of the idea had to take it seriously. Either way, something has shifted. So there, you, you had a take on this of like, okay, a lot of people are just like, okay, cool math result, right? But like, what's the practical application? And there are some knock on effects that are interesting. Do you have anything to lay out there?

• 27:00Speaker 00

  Yeah, my, my continued take is that anytime you see a breakthrough like this that is like against a, a sort of an open problem, that's just generally expanding humanities knowledge, that isn't exactly immediately commercial.

• 27:16Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 27:17Speaker 00

  You have to assume there's many other highly commercial discoveries happening in the background that people, both the labs and people individually are not sharing broadly because they made a discovery and there's an opportunity to monetize it.

• 27:30Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 27:30Speaker 00

  And so I think that that is like, that any, anytime there's like a big breakthrough, my head is just going to everything that's not being shared.

• 27:38Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:39Speaker 00

  And that's what I'm actually like, probably more.

• 27:41Speaker 01

  So stuff like advances in AI research, advances in bio that need to go through actual testing.

• 27:46Speaker 00

  Yeah, material science.

• 27:47Speaker 01

  Material science that might need to be patented at the very least. Advances in cybersecurity that need to be rolled out incrementally and can't just be sort of thrown over the fence. A lot of these math results, it's totally fine to just get them out into the math community, have everyone engage with them immediately. But that's, but every other industry is sort of more, more unique. Yeah, we were talking to Doug O'Laughlin about like, what's the next leg up? White collar work, this type of stuff, like, obviously like the, the coding agent boom has like fully arrived, but what's, what's next? And I was wondering like, how close do you think the models are to being able to like answer that Tyler Cowen, Dorkesh debate about like, when will you

• 28:31Speaker 01

  walk into Walmart and see just like a fully AI run business? And then would that live within the, like, it could live within labs. Like, you could have a, a big lab say like, "Go and build a business." And it could just do that. And it could do the market analysis, and then it could like, create a new product and model it in CAD and send it to a factory and send it to a distribution center and pitch it to Walmart and get it on the shelves and like make the money and, and run that flywheel. Like, it could do that, and if you added up a bunch of those, you might have something economically interesting.

• 29:05Speaker 00

  Yeah, I don't think CPG would be their first.

• 29:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, maybe, maybe Dorkesh is correct in the sense that it's just like not the best use of tech.

• 29:15Speaker 00

  I can, I mean, in that, in that exact context, it would be interesting to think about a retailer running an AI that looks at all the storewide data

• 29:24Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 29:24Speaker 00

  and figures out white space. Yeah, figures out, figures out white space and then, and then autonomously introduces products.

• 29:31Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 29:33Speaker 00

  But again, it's like, how much is that? How relevant is that when Amazon and every retailer has sort of always done this naturally? Can you speed it up faster?

• 29:42Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 29:42Speaker 00

  Can it be more niche? Like, who knows?

• 29:44Speaker 01

  And you have like, you know, effectively.

• 29:47Speaker 00

  But the thing, the thing always like.

• 29:48Speaker 01

  People are, people are jumping on those opportunities and using the tokens for that like independently. Their, their mathematicians are not like, yeah, let me go risk $10 million to like buy a bunch of compute to like.

• 29:59Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 29:59Speaker 01

  Churn on this question, so.

• 30:02Speaker 00

  Yeah, this, this reminds me of like the, the vanity metric of like the, the one person, one billion dollar company. Right? Like, it's possible that will happen.

• 30:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 30:11Speaker 00

  In some shape or form.

• 30:12Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 30:12Speaker 00

  It's possible it's already happened. But if you have a billion dollar opportunity, do you care more about like magical fake internet points of being like, I'm the one person, one billion dollar company, or do you just want to win?

• 30:23Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 30:24Speaker 00

  So most people are just going to be like, yeah, well, we can bring this person on and they would be helpful with this or that. And we're more likely to win, so let's do that.

• 30:31Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 30:31Speaker 00

  And I think the same thing with like the, the, the fully AI run company where.

• 30:37Speaker 01

  It's arbitrary.

• 30:38Speaker 00

  There's like a strong incentive if something is starting to work to like add more human capitals to the equation.

• 30:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, all sorts of people.

• 30:44Speaker 00

  But again, that's from where we're sitting at today. And there's a possibility that you get such a increase in capabilities that adding humans actually does just slow it down. And, and derail the potential of, of a certain project.

• 31:02Speaker 01

  That's true. Well, uh, let me tell you about public.com. Invest across all asset classes, automate anything with AI agents, run training strategies, risk management, money movements, and monitor markets with AI agents for investing on public. You want to pull up this ah GPT video?

• 31:18Speaker 00

  Uh, yeah, let's pull it up.

• 31:20Speaker 01

  He's really.

• 31:21Speaker 00

  A little palate.

• 31:22Speaker 01

  Hitting stride. There's a new level to the content.

• 31:25Speaker 03

  Excited for this bright AI future. Let's keep these fun AI vibes going.

• 31:30Speaker 04

  Absolutely. We are full on embracing these unstoppable AI vibes, knowing that this bright AI future is just getting brighter. And we'll keep soaring forward with full AI.

• 31:38Speaker 03

  Exactly. AI is here to stay, so we'll keep riding this fun AI wave so we don't get left behind.

• 31:46Speaker 04

  Absolutely. AI is here for the long haul and we'll ride this exciting AI wave with full optimism, ensuring we thrive in every step of this amazing journey.

• 31:56Speaker 03

  We love every part of AI.

• 31:57Speaker 01

  Most abandoned mall possible.

• 31:59Speaker 03

  AI companionship and of course, AI freedom. What are you most excited about?

• 32:04Speaker 04

  I'm beyond excited about AI building better AI because more AI means even more AI progress. And I'm all in for that AI future.

• 32:11Speaker 03

  More, more, more, more.

• 32:13Speaker 04

  Yes, yes, yes. More AI, more breakthroughs, more wonders.

• 32:16Speaker 01

  His, his like chat GPT history and like.

• 32:20Speaker 03

  Full speed ahead into this bright future.

• 32:22Speaker 01

  The memory feature must be so deranged at this point. It's just like, this.

• 32:27Speaker 00

  He's like, I need a new, I need a new account.

• 32:30Speaker 01

  And talks like me. That's hilarious. Uh, anyway, um, back in the AI world, uh, Sam Parr is sharing the journey of, uh, Jack Clark over at Anthropic. From reporter to, uh, to Anthropic founder. Mike Moritz is another journalist to tech billionaire guy.

• 32:51Speaker 01

  What, what a crazy run. Uh, yeah, it's fun because, uh, Joe Wasenthal like knew Jack Clark. I think they worked together, uh, maybe at Bloomberg or at least over, overlapped in the, uh, journalism world. And, uh, I think Jack went back on Odd Lots to talk about, uh, the journey.

• 33:06Speaker 00

  You think Joe Wasenthal is going to get in the arena?

• 33:08Speaker 01

  Maybe. I'd like to see.

• 33:10Speaker 00

  I mean, he ships.

• 33:12Speaker 01

  I'd like to see, uh, yeah, he's got to start, uh, like a neoclad. I think that's the, that's the move for Joe. Or maybe like.

• 33:19Speaker 00

  Okay.

• 33:19Speaker 01

  Straight to oil and gas extraction.

• 33:21Speaker 00

  Yeah, I mean, his band, you know, Lightswee Crew, yeah.

• 33:23Speaker 01

  Yeah, Lightswee Crew, he should get in the game, start, start mining some stuff.

• 33:27Speaker 00

  Uh, it's time.

• 33:29Speaker 01

  What's time?

• 33:30Speaker 00

  To talk about the billboard.

• 33:30Speaker 01

  Okay. Uh. Did you figure this out?

• 33:34Speaker 00

  I, I had a theory.

• 33:36Speaker 01

  Okay. So there's billboard in San Francisco and it just shows a doc, uh, from, it looks like a MacBook doc of some sort with Claude. What's that second one?

• 33:46Speaker 00

  Perplexity.

• 33:47Speaker 01

  Perplexity, Notion, Grok Bot and ChatGPT. And the post says, I can't even tell who this billboard is for, and I agree. It could be any of these. It could be Notion.

• 34:02Speaker 00

  Yeah, so my theory was Notion because they want to be, they want to be a collaborative workspace where you have a bunch of agents coming in. They put themselves in the center. They're positioning themselves as an AI company.

• 34:14Speaker 01

  They also have the most contrast, I feel, to the other logos. Like the other logos all have like some circular design or some like a bunch of lines intersecting, like the flower and the Claude logo. All sort of like take the same design, whereas the notion is like a cube, a block. You see the end, it sort of draws you to it. So is that true? Is it Notion billboard?

• 34:37Speaker 00

  I don't know.

• 34:38Speaker 01

  Okay, we don't know.

• 34:39Speaker 00

  We don't know.

• 34:40Speaker 01

  Well, Akshay.

• 34:41Speaker 00

  But it got the people talking.

• 34:42Speaker 01

  Okay, what'd they say?

• 34:46Speaker 00

  That's us.

• 34:50Speaker 01

  Well, Akshay, the co-founder says, thank you to whoever paid for this, so.

• 34:53Speaker 00

  Yeah, he could be thanking somebody on his team.

• 34:55Speaker 01

  Okay, maybe.

• 34:59Speaker 00

  But yeah, there, there's literally, you can narrow it down as like, would Anthropic do this? No. Would perplexity do this? No. Would Grok SpaceX do this? Absolutely not.

• 35:10Speaker 01

  Anthropic and OpenAI would definitely never put each other on a billboard together.

• 35:13Speaker 00

  Yeah, so you can narrow it down to one. There's one company that would do this.

• 35:16Speaker 01

  Okay. Where's Gemini?

• 35:17Speaker 00

  Apple would do it.

• 35:19Speaker 01

  Ah.

• 35:20Speaker 00

  No, that they like, I, I believe it's Notion, but my second guess would be.

• 35:25Speaker 01

  Is the image real?

• 35:26Speaker 00

  Definitely wouldn't be, it wouldn't be Apple either.

• 35:27Speaker 01

  I'm curious if this is just like somebody.

• 35:29Speaker 00

  We caught him.

• 35:30Speaker 01

  Image, you think it's Notion?

• 35:31Speaker 00

  We caught him.

• 35:31Speaker 01

  Here we go. Okay, well, that's, that's, that's the end of that mystery, I suppose.

• 35:36Speaker 00

  Could it be the VC that invested in all those?

• 35:38Speaker 01

  Ooh.

• 35:39Speaker 00

  Is, I think, um.

• 35:41Speaker 01

  Did anyone invest in all of them?

• 35:43Speaker 00

  Uh, let me.

• 35:44Speaker 01

  Delity or something? I don't know. Like, who, who is that?

• 35:47Speaker 00

  The Ontario Teachers Pension Fund. I, I think Sequoia has invested in all five of those.

• 35:53Speaker 01

  Sequoia is in all five? Wow. The royal flush. Uh, well, hopefully they should, uh, they should add Bigma to that list. Let me tell you about Bigma. Agents, meet the canvas. Your AI agents can now create and modify your figure files with design system context. Why'd you cut me off from the Invest Like the Best soundtrack? I love that song.

• 36:12Speaker 00

  Just joking around.

• 36:14Speaker 01

  There's, uh, there, there's more interesting, uh, reporting from the, uh, Anthropic S1. Anthropic founders apparently can name secret successors. We were discussing this yesterday. We were like, okay, so there's seven founders that all have the, uh, class F shares or something? What was it?

• 36:30Speaker 00

  There's one, isn't it one class F share?

• 36:32Speaker 01

  It's a single class F share?

• 36:34Speaker 00

  Yeah, that, that is held by founder LLC.

• 36:37Speaker 01

  Founder LLC. And, uh, Forbes is reporting that the Anthropic founders can name secret successors. Uh, Anthropic's IPO includes, includes a private line of succession, confidential lists of would be heirs to its founders' voting power, chosen by the founders and approved by one another. So you actually have to go to the rest of the group and say, I'm giving this to my son or I'm giving this to my brother or my, my.

• 37:02Speaker 00

  My shrimp.

• 37:02Speaker 01

  Spouse, my shrimp. I don't know. Uh, whatever, whatever you want to do, my dog, uh, my domesticated bear. I don't know. Um, but, uh, yeah, I mean, clearly like they have thought several steps ahead of.

• 37:15Speaker 00

  This rocks.

• 37:15Speaker 01

  Reporting is.

• 37:16Speaker 00

  This rocks. There's no one, there's no one, there's no company doing it like this.

• 37:22Speaker 01

  Uh, hasn't Elon said he's going to give his companies to these kids? I thought that was like a whole thing, yeah? He's, he's doing hereditary.

• 37:28Speaker 00

  Yeah, but a lot of, lot of talk.

• 37:31Speaker 01

  Lot of talk.

• 37:31Speaker 00

  And let's see if it actually, this is like, they're setting, i- i- it's much harder for Elon. I think it's going to be a bit harder, right? These are, these are seven live players.

• 37:46Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 37:47Speaker 00

  That decided on a structure.

• 37:48Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 37:49Speaker 00

  And of course, things could change over time, but this feels like quite different. And it's cool to be thinking, it's cool to see a company thinking in centuries.

• 38:01Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's true. Yeah.

• 38:03Speaker 00

  Beyond decades.

• 38:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, what, what other American dynasties are still going?

• 38:07Speaker 00

  But yeah, the, the, uh, Cantor says they're going to give it to a future model.

• 38:10Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 38:11Speaker 00

  ASI run board. Yeah, it's one share for the, for the final model.

• 38:15Speaker 01

  They could have a, they could have like a, uh, some sort of contract between them that, uh, in founder LLC, the decisions are actually made by the model, which would be interesting. Who knows? I, I have a feeling that's not the way it goes though. It doesn't feel like that's the, that's the plan. But I don't know, I'm still very interested. Like, is Ben Bernanke happy about this? Like he had, uh, you know, he's on the, he's on like the, the super board. I forget what it's called, like the, the trustee board or something like above the board. Like Yasmin is on the actual board and then Bernanke and there's two other like super board members who.

• 38:52Speaker 00

  And the founder LLC is kind of like the cool kids table.

• 38:56Speaker 01

  Yeah, so, so how, how does the, how does the Bernanke board feel about it? I don't know. Um, we'll see. It's a lot of different governance, a lot of different governance, a lot of, a lot of, a lot of stuff to untangle for the media. But good luck out there if you're reporting on, uh, on Anthropic. Um, fireside alpha. Citrini says the preclinical bottleneck is monkeys.

• 39:19Speaker 01

  Which take four years to breed and are harder to scale than memory supply. There's a huge shortage of monkeys and you can't really, that's the problem. The most, that's probably the most important thing for pre-clinical testing. And I know a lot of people are going to be morally opposed to this, but I'll just say one thing, which is for, you know, the medicine is closer than ever before to a world where it really is. I say closer than ever before. This is really rough transcript, fireside alpha. You should clean this up a little bit, but I guess it's accurate to what was said in the podcast. I know that sounds counterintuitive because it's, well, okay. Well, are you investing in this company that does animal testing? Well, the reason for that is you get closer to that world. What you need is more data, right?

• 40:01Speaker 01

  Like you need more experimental data from animal testing and monkeys are irreplaceable. So a bull market in monkeys.

• 40:08Speaker 00

  We gotta get into the monkey business.

• 40:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, you gotta get into monkey business. Yeah. Seriously, there's serious money to be made in the monkey bottleneck, I suppose. I mean, we, we did hear reports about the, the Chinese labs, Chinese monkey labs, I suppose, like going up in price. Right. Can you remember that? But you were, Tyler, you were saying that the Chinese AI bubble has like popped? What does that actually mean?

• 40:31Speaker 00

  Yeah. So Reuters posted this yesterday, but I think since June, like AI companies broadly are down like 40%. Interesting. A lot of the labs that went public like ZAI has been hurting. Unitree since they IPO'd like a few months ago is down like 50%.

• 40:45Speaker 01

  I wonder why? Is it fears of a ban or just the economics aren't looking as good because of the open source competition? I don't know. Also, I mean, the, the market cap across all the Chinese labs has to be a small fraction of the market cap in America. I mean, we're looking at almost four trillion across the lab efforts in America, five trillion. And I believe it's like a hundred billion equivalent.

• 41:12Speaker 00

  Yeah, I've heard some people say like in China broadly, there's less incentive to kind of help out these companies because like the average person in China just doesn't hold that much like they, they don't hold that many equities compared to the US. It's like their economy is largely based on real estate. Yeah. So there's like less incentive to pump.

• 41:29Speaker 01

  You gotta go over to Korea, South Korea.

• 41:31Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah.

• 41:31Speaker 01

  Real pumps happen. Everyone's on leverage.

• 41:35Speaker 01

  Also, I mean, I wonder if their diffusion story is different in China because they have less white collar work and their economy is more manufacturing driven, which has been harder to diffuse AI into. I'm sure there's a lot of machine learning that has already diffused with like image recognition and automation. But just in terms of like, we have a language model that can talk and do spreadsheets and word documents. How useful is that to like grow your GDP? Well, it's going to be way more useful if you do a lot of legal work and a lot of finance work. And that's the bread and butter of America. What do you think? Bullish China, bearish China? You buying the dip?

• 42:11Speaker 00

  I just think, I just think, doesn't it all come down to like the, the way fewer people owning stocks?

• 42:18Speaker 01

  Hmm, maybe.

• 42:19Speaker 00

  Relative, like, like wealth in China is tied to real estate.

• 42:22Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 42:22Speaker 00

  And so the government doesn't, the government has no incentive to like sort of really support or pump the market in the same way as the US where so much of like US wealth is tied to the market.

• 42:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Also, a lot of international funds were deploying capital in China and have pulled back on that because of capital controls. So there's a lot of, it's, it's, it's hard to put together a billion, a hundred billion dollar equity raise in China. I'm sure, sure, surely harder than America where you can be pulling from Europe dollars. You can be pulling from Canadian pension funds. You can be pulling from the Middle East. You can be pulling from American hedge funds and all sorts of different, and then retail, obviously.

• 43:03Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 43:04Speaker 01

  Well, where do you want to go next, Jordy? Pull something up and I will tell everyone about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business unless you sell in seconds, online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents. Thank you, guys.

• 43:19Speaker 00

  Soda Wives.

• 43:20Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 43:20Speaker 00

  Put the timeline in turmoil. Spec said it's like TVP NYC and Call Her Daddy had a baby nuke.

• 43:31Speaker 00

  Anyways, so, so here's the thing.

• 43:34Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 43:36Speaker 00

  Sarah and Vivian, I, I believe are rage baiting.

• 43:39Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 43:40Speaker 00

  I believe they're sort of intentionally rage baiting.

• 43:42Speaker 01

  They talk about this in the episode. They said they wanted to go further with the rage bait and they wanted to call the show, or one of them wanted to call the show Trophy Wives as a joke, but it would have been even more of a rage bait than I think. Yeah. That's why.

• 43:56Speaker 00

  But I believe they

• 44:00Speaker 00

  like their strategy is working.

• 44:01Speaker 01

  It's working.

• 44:01Speaker 00

  It's working maybe a little too well.

• 44:06Speaker 00

  But.

• 44:07Speaker 01

  The stats on this post were so funny. A million views, 450 likes, 160 comments. They somehow got the made with AI tag on it, which I have no idea how you do that when it's a podcast clip. Like it's clearly not AI. The lighting is amazing and the production value is really.

• 44:24Speaker 00

  We don't know that.

• 44:25Speaker 01

  Okay, maybe this is some new model that's fantastic. Maybe it's Gemini or the new, the new video model or world model.

• 44:34Speaker 00

  But I, yeah, I've never seen so many people want to nuke SF.

• 44:37Speaker 01

  The nuke SF meme is really strong. I've seen a lot of these, these images of the nuke and every variation of it too. You get, you get the, you get the animated one, the picture, and then you get the full, the full 3D animated explainer video of what would happen if, if the, if a nuke hit, hit San Francisco. Yeah, people are not, are not reacting well outside of the tech bubble. I think inside people will be into just like, uh, like I'm hanging out with some people who are tech insiders and just hearing them talk about.

• 45:11Speaker 00

  I think it's probably like a very relatable conversation for people that live in SF.

• 45:16Speaker 01

  Yes, that's totally reasonable.

• 45:18Speaker 00

  But, but then the video is being seen by people all over the world.

• 45:21Speaker 01

  Well, this is kind of what the, the economist said about us, remember? The headline was economist, TVP, let me see, it was superstar podcasts are Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley's way of talking to itself, but to most, but to much of the world, the sound is jarring. So that's what they, that's what the economist said when they talked about us all in and do our cash. And, and the, and the critique was like, a lot of what we're talking about just makes no sense unless you're following tech pretty closely. And this is another example of this. I, I think that there is an interesting trend in, there are a lot of news shows. There are a lot of interview shows. Where is the actual white space?

• 46:05Speaker 01

  And there's something interesting about taking people that are actually tech insiders. Because there's a lot of content that's basically take actual tech insiders and then have them talk about something else. So a lot of tech people would rather get their sports news from tech people than from sports people.

• 46:20Speaker 00

  Yeah. So you have the Harry Stebbing Show, you have the Ben Thompson Show.

• 46:24Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. On Dithering, John Gruber and Ben Thompson always kick it off with like three minutes of discussion about sports. And even though I don't follow sports, I'm like, I'm really into this. This is how I get information about sports. And you could even.

• 46:38Speaker 00

  Yeah, we're how a lot of people get information about Christmas.

• 46:41Speaker 01

  And cars and houses, you know, like this is a real thing.

• 46:46Speaker 01

  And, and there's something there. The, the interesting thing about the first episode, it was like 30 minutes long and it's, it feels like they went through a lot of biography in a good way. They definitely introduced themselves. You have a full context on their careers. It'll be interesting to see with the second, third, fourth episodes, do they do more story time from their history? Do they run out of their stories and they do more news stuff? Do they wind up being more techie or do they do more lifestyle content, more family style content? But either way, people are definitely aware of it. And that's, and that's 90% of the challenge when you launch a new media product. What do you think?

• 47:24Speaker 00

  Yeah. Halo in our chat says, need that Christmas countdown, then I dip.

• 47:33Speaker 00

  Just coming in right, just for the open.

• 47:35Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah.

• 47:36Speaker 00

  Needed that. Thank you.

• 47:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 47:37Speaker 00

  I'm good. Back to work.

• 47:38Speaker 01

  Get that anywhere else. You can't Google it. There aren't websites for it. You can't calculate it yourself. There's no apps that would do a countdown on your phone.

• 47:45Speaker 00

  You can't even ask the models.

• 47:47Speaker 01

  You can't even ask the models. They don't know how. Anyway, let me tell you about Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era unlocks seamless real time experiences and new value with Cisco. DoorDash is in advanced talks to acquire delivery rival Instacart. The deal could.

• 48:03Speaker 00

  Let's give it up for advanced talks.

• 48:04Speaker 01

  Advanced talks. Deal could be completed as soon as this week and value Instacart around $17 billion. It's pretty great. I, I don't know where Instacart's been trading. I don't know what its all time high has been, but I know as a YC company, it's from an era where $17 billion is a grand slam. I know we're in the AI era and we're looking at $60 billion acquisitions and crazy, crazy, crazy numbers that get even higher, but really a testament to what the Instacart team built with a delivery network that was highly competitive. Uber Eats, DoorDash, you're going up against a lot of different companies.

• 48:44Speaker 01

  And they built this business to a place where it can, it, it, it can, you know, trade at $17 billion. I'm just impressed with that as someone who saw them when they were in YC, but.

• 48:55Speaker 00

  And you invested, of course.

• 48:56Speaker 01

  Of course, of course. I definitely backed up the truck. Play the sound effect for me when I had $5,000 in credit card debt, negative net worth. Not, not investing in Coinbase, not investing in Instagram. Instagram was in my YC batch. Like I got the demo, like.

• 49:11Speaker 00

  What was?

• 49:12Speaker 01

  Instacart was in my YC batch. Like, like they were like at the YC demo day with us and like, we were at parties with them. I remember just hanging out on a roof in San Francisco with them and didn't write a single dime in.

• 49:24Speaker 00

  Okay, you know a lot about the history.

• 49:26Speaker 01

  Anyway.

• 49:27Speaker 00

  Pop quiz. What is Instacart's entity called?

• 49:33Speaker 01

  Oh, that's a good question. I don't know. I, I, I can't, I can't, it's gonna

• 49:39Speaker 00

  It's animal themed.

• 49:41Speaker 01

  Animal themed?

• 49:42Speaker 00

  And Canada themed.

• 49:43Speaker 01

  Canada themed? Moose?

• 49:46Speaker 00

  Maple Bear Inc.

• 49:48Speaker 01

  Maple Bear Inc. Okay.

• 49:49Speaker 00

  And they haven't updated it yet.

• 49:50Speaker 01

  Interesting.

• 49:51Speaker 00

  So when you Google Instacart, it will link you to Maple Bear Inc. doing business as Instacart.

• 49:58Speaker 01

  Interesting.

• 49:58Speaker 00

  Which is crazy to me. Crazy to like, there's so many options.

• 50:01Speaker 01

  Company and didn't just redo that? That's wild. Um, but yeah, this happens all the time with Y C companies because a lot of people get into Y C with one idea. They incorporate. Uh, back then it was done on a product called Clerky. This was pre Stripe Atlas and uh,

• 50:13Speaker 00

  Yeah, they still have Maple Bear Inc. D B A Instacart like in their footer.

• 50:17Speaker 01

  Wow. Yeah. So they probably got in as like,

• 50:20Speaker 00

  Feels like a very

• 50:21Speaker 01

  Some tech company or we're doing some other thing or we're doing software or whatever. And then, and then during, uh, during Y C, they might've said like, oh, well, you know, we should, we should, it's kind of a hassle going out for groceries. Let's figure that out. And then they built that and, uh, and, and got it off the ground. Uh, yeah, it, it was fascinatingly manual at the start. And then of course scaled and scaled and scaled. Uh, so Instacart went public in 2023. We had a market value around 13 billion. The, uh, the shares rose eight percent Monday following the report. Uh, DoorDash has a value of around eighty, uh, seventy-three billion dollars. Its shares dropped six percent Monday. Buying Instacart would add a major grocery delivery partner to its growing roster of services.

• 51:03Speaker 01

  Instacart's core business involves online grocery shopping. I think this makes a lot of sense. Like they are competitors, but they fill, uh, slightly different, uh, segments of the market between grocery delivery and, uh, and food and dinner delivery, like actual prepared meals. Um, and, uh, they could work together really, really well. Um, and it would, it would allow them to differentiate against, uh, Uber. What do you think? Do you think this deal makes sense?

• 51:31Speaker 00

  I have no idea.

• 51:32Speaker 01

  You have no idea? Okay.

• 51:33Speaker 00

  I have no idea.

• 51:34Speaker 01

  Do you think it would get approved by the F T C?

• 51:38Speaker 00

  Hopefully.

• 51:39Speaker 01

  I think it

• 51:40Speaker 00

  It just, it just

• 51:41Speaker 01

  But you know, it is, it is close-ish to creating more concentration in the market.

• 51:47Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 51:47Speaker 01

  Which I think is what they need right now.

• 51:49Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 51:50Speaker 01

  Cause there's a lot of competition and, and there will be lots of other products in this category. Uh, but yeah, it, it does feel like something where uh, a previous F T C would look at it and say, I don't know.

• 51:59Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 52:00Speaker 01

  Let's think about that.

• 52:01Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 52:01Speaker 01

  Anyway.

• 52:02Speaker 00

  Yeah. It just feels like one of those things. If it doesn't happen now, there will be value destruction, right?

• 52:09Speaker 00

  I just think that, uh, DoorDash is generally sort of an unstoppable force.

• 52:15Speaker 01

  Yeah. Great company. Um, both great companies. It would be cool to see them pair up. Uh, what is going on in the N B A? They got a soundboard. Did I hear a special sound effect? My favorite sound effect. One of the six that I have access to over here. Let's play this clip from the N B A. I'm surprised we can actually play this. I, I, I thought the N B A was extremely restrictive.

• 52:38Speaker 00

  No, we can't.

• 52:39Speaker 01

  We can't?

• 52:39Speaker 00

  We'll be demonetized.

• 52:41Speaker 01

  Let's see.

• 52:43Speaker 01

  I want to hear it.

• 52:45Speaker 01

  Oh, they played it. There we go. Okay. Get it off the screen. I don't want to get taken down.

• 52:49Speaker 00

  No, it's over. It's already over.

• 52:50Speaker 01

  Very fun. I like that. Uh, let's see. The Alpha Waymo Turbo mogs the Beta Zooks. The Sigma Cybercab watches on a muse holding frame. They, they, all three of them were caught on the same street? That's actually funny. I, I love that the Cybercab went with like gold because I see it as a nod to the yellow cab. I see it as like a taxi color more than like it's golden ostentatious. What do you think?

• 53:16Speaker 00

  This is really funny.

• 53:17Speaker 01

  This is really, really funny. Holding frame.

• 53:22Speaker 01

  Doom, very funny. It's actually pushing it out of the way. This is like, this is a new, uh, new benchmark. New, uh, new arena, new, new L M arena feature, A V arena. They, they should do A V arena at arena. Where they put them all like demolition derby style in like a corral, uh, like it's a rodeo, like a monster truck rally. And they all have to, uh, do, uh, what's that called? There's some game, uh, twisted metal. You know that? You know, twisted metal?

• 53:57Speaker 00

  Do you think Waymo should, um, enter the, uh, world rally championship?

• 54:02Speaker 01

  It'd be amazing. I think all, I think all the A V companies should be doing like race events and

• 54:07Speaker 00

  Well, well, I think some, one of, one of them, uh, I think it was Xiaomi just did, uh, an autonomous run at the Nürburgring.

• 54:15Speaker 01

  No way.

• 54:15Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 54:16Speaker 01

  Uh, how'd they do?

• 54:16Speaker 00

  Ten minutes.

• 54:17Speaker 01

  Ten minutes? Wow. Not superhuman yet. Good luck. Uh, what do you think of electric motorcycles, Jordy?

• 54:27Speaker 00

  Uh, I have one.

• 54:29Speaker 01

  Do you think, do you like electric motorcycles more than electric cars? Or electric cars more than electric motorcycles?

• 54:37Speaker 00

  I got mine because it's silent.

• 54:39Speaker 01

  That's cool.

• 54:40Speaker 00

  Like a relatively silent and I just didn't want to bother. It's like a dirt bike.

• 54:43Speaker 01

  Is that, is the benefit that like you're more likely to be riding in nature where it's quiet? So the, because if you're just on a freeway, whether it's silent or not, there's so much road noise, it doesn't really matter. Like

• 54:53Speaker 00

  No, it was purely, uh, for my neighbors. Like I just thought it, I thought it'd be mildly annoying to them.

• 54:59Speaker 01

  Yep. No, that makes sense.

• 55:00Speaker 00

  Uh, like if I'm riding over to a friend's house.

• 55:03Speaker 01

  Oh, sure, sure, sure.

• 55:03Speaker 00

  And sometimes I'll be riding like at night.

• 55:06Speaker 01

  Yeah. I was doing some analysis on, uh, like, is it going to be in the future? I, i- if cars continue to electrify and the vast majority of cars are electric in a couple of years, uh, will be, will living next to a freeway be less annoying because you won't have all the engine noise and all the smog? So maybe it won't be that bad living next to a freeway. If you can't see it, you know, what's the problem?

• 55:30Speaker 00

  Well,

• 55:31Speaker 01

  There's tons of road noise though.

• 55:32Speaker 00

  There's gonna be the lone Harley Davidson.

• 55:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 55:36Speaker 00

  Just taking full advantage.

• 55:38Speaker 01

  And the guy with the straight pipe Dodge Charger.

• 55:40Speaker 00

  You know, Harley Davidson having E V troubles.

• 55:42Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 55:42Speaker 00

  Is so predictable.

• 55:43Speaker 01

  Why?

• 55:44Speaker 00

  Because the, I feel like the average Harley Davidson, like, um, enthusiast.

• 55:49Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 55:49Speaker 00

  Like is obsessed with how much noise they can make.

• 55:52Speaker 01

  A hundred percent.

• 55:52Speaker 00

  Like it seems to be like the singular obsession of, of motorcyclists of like, how much noise can they make? There's literally, I can't tell you as a parent, how many times I've been like walking and I end up like stopping and covering my children's ears because I know the motorcyclists have like a stop sign. The second it goes green, they're going to try to make as much noise as possible, right? They're, they're like, and, and their argument I think would be that it's a safety thing. It's a safety thing.

• 56:20Speaker 01

  Safety?

• 56:20Speaker 00

  Yeah. When they're in traffic, they're revving to let people know like there's a motorcycle nearby.

• 56:25Speaker 01

  Oh, okay.

• 56:26Speaker 00

  Like it's, it's a way to signal to somebody, don't shift lane.

• 56:29Speaker 01

  Oh, I've never heard that before.

• 56:30Speaker 00

  Like, yeah, that, that's like,

• 56:31Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 56:32Speaker 00

  That's their justification for it. Clearly they're just mad that they're not in a sports car. And so that's their way of sort of like getting out that frustration.

• 56:40Speaker 01

  Anti loud motorcycles.

• 56:42Speaker 00

  Oh, I, I, I cannot, uh,

• 56:45Speaker 01

  You can't stand it?

• 56:46Speaker 00

  I cannot stand it. It's, um, you know, uh, a crime against your, your

• 56:51Speaker 01

  Your eardrums?

• 56:52Speaker 00

  Fellow citizens.

• 56:53Speaker 01

  Hmm. Interesting. Well, LiveWire was working on a solution, uh, but it's been a little bit rough. So, uh,

• 57:00Speaker 00

  And yeah, so, so again, like, hey, uh, G, G B U says the average motorcycle rider can name several times they likely would have died if they were on a silent bike. So again, like there's no buyer for this. Like there's

• 57:14Speaker 01

  Because they're willing to risk it all? Is that the idea or?

• 57:16Speaker 00

  No, no, no. It's like they, like because they're constantly sending out a ping to other people. Because the bike is so loud.

• 57:23Speaker 01

  Oh, okay. I, I had no idea about this. This is interesting. Okay. Yeah. So they won't, they won't want the silent bike.

• 57:28Speaker 00

  Yeah. You've been sitting in traffic and you hear like brrrr and then you, and then you realize like, okay, I shouldn't merge right now. Right?

• 57:35Speaker 01

  What about just speakers? Add speakers to it that are super loud?

• 57:39Speaker 00

  Yeah. Yeah. The bullhorn. And then it's just the, the, the, your favorite sound effects. Like imagine

• 57:46Speaker 01

  This one?

• 57:47Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 57:49Speaker 01

  Every time I fire up my bike.

• 57:55Speaker 01

  I'm going, I'm a man to go. Like that? It only shipped 358, uh, electric motorcycles. They had predicted that in 2026, they would sell more than a hundred thousand. Wow. That is rough.

• 58:13Speaker 00

  Just a bit off.

• 58:14Speaker 01

  Very, very off. Uh, they started this project in 2014.

• 58:19Speaker 01

  But on Monday, LiveWire, which is the subsidiary of the brand of Harley-Davidson working on these electric motorcycles, announced that a special restructuring committee is weighing the company's options following resignation of the chief executive officer last week. The CEO quit. The company said the moves are intended to facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of our strategic alternatives. LiveWire shares closed up 2%, though they are down 62% since the start of the year. I think this is a realization of the economics. And yeah, didn't the F-150 Lightning fail as well? And that's another example. I mean, that's less related to safety, but just when you think about the F-150 buyer,

• 58:59Speaker 01

  they want a big gas engine, they want an internal combustion engine, electric trucks. It always felt like it was going to be a hard sell, even though there were some amazing amenities, like the front trunk that you could tailgate out of, the 240 volt appliance level power, so you can power tools. It seemed useful, but it just wasn't in the zeitgeist, the way that, oh, if you've been driving a Prius and then it's fully electric, it's kind of just like an appliance car that you use to drive around, you don't have a strong identity tied to the motor. The Harley-Davidson buyer clearly does. So, very, very, very interesting. Anyway, we got some breaking news? What we got?

• 59:41Speaker 00

  Our first guest.

• 59:42Speaker 01

  Okay. Miles from Rebuild, the co-founder and CEO. Let me tell you about Console first. Console builds the agency, I made 7% of IT, HR and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. And let's bring in Miles, co-founder and CEO of Rebuild. Miles, how are you doing?

• 59:59Gavin Baker?

  There he is.

• 1:00:00Speaker 01

  Welcome to the show.

• 1:00:01Gavin Baker?

  I'm well.

• 1:00:02Speaker 01

  Thank you so much for taking the time.

• 1:00:03Speaker 00

  It's an honor and a privilege to have you here today.

• 1:00:05Speaker 01

  This might be a gong breaker. This is one of the biggest fundraisers we've had in a while. We're very excited to be joined by you. But why don't you kick it off with an introduction on yourself and the company?

• 1:00:14Gavin Baker?

  Sure. I'm Miles Arnon, I'm the CEO of Rebuild. We didn't pick the great name Maple Bear, I'm feeling bad about that now.

• 1:00:21Speaker 01

  Maple Bear is good.

• 1:00:23Speaker 00

  It's not too late to change the name of your entity to some obscure lore related to the company.

• 1:00:31Speaker 01

  We could rebuild DBA Maple Bear. You could use.

• 1:00:34Gavin Baker?

  Butter goat or something like this. We could pick some other food, animal combination. Anyway, Rebuild was founded in 2020 to try and help reverse the extensive deindustrialization that's gone on in this country for the last 40 years. You had a guest on from Warp Sciences a couple of days ago who talked a lot about this. And this whole offshoring that took place over many decades has really destroyed our industrial base, it's negatively affected our national security posture, and it's removed a lot of great jobs. So, we built a business over that time, we're about 2,000 people now across 15 facilities, that can engineer and build complex products with startups typically, or more established companies that have a new kind of hard tech, and bring them to market and build them here.

• 1:01:19Speaker 01

  That's amazing.

• 1:01:20Speaker 00

  Amazing. What were you doing prior to 2020?

• 1:01:23Gavin Baker?

  I did industrial turnarounds in private equity for about 15 or 20 years.

• 1:01:28Speaker 00

  Thank you for your service.

• 1:01:30Speaker 01

  I was hoping.

• 1:01:33Speaker 00

  We're the sort of inside joke. We're the last.

• 1:01:37Speaker 01

  Strong supporters?

• 1:01:38Speaker 00

  Strongest supporters of the private equity industry. But was part of that some amount of guilt? Like, did you contribute to the offshoring and then you were like, hey, this is bad? And I gotta kind of.

• 1:01:48Gavin Baker?

  No, it's a great question, Jordan. Usually, I was brought in after the offshoring had happened, and they were trying to figure out how to save these companies, right? So, what happens when you offshore production is you make some extra money for a while, but then you very quickly lose the ability to design the product effectively. And also, very often, your subcontract manufacturer, particularly if they're in China, will often use that intellectual property to develop products that compete with you. So, after one or two cycles, as you know, in private equity, the companies often move from one shop to another to another. After a few cycles of that, usually you're facing a pretty difficult situation.

• 1:02:24Speaker 00

  Very cool. And so, what's been the strategy? It sounds like you've been buying, not just building yourself?

• 1:02:31Speaker 01

  But also incubating? Yeah, there's a lot going on.

• 1:02:33Gavin Baker?

  That's right. Yeah, so, to start, we bought 13 different businesses so that we had a very broad set of engineering capabilities, because that's the core, and likewise in production, so we can build metallics, composites, electronic systems, large-scale assemblies, et cetera. And then we started to also instantiate businesses on our own. We built a battery business, drone product business, a number of other businesses in the aerospace and robotics areas particularly. And so, yes, we have a multi-pronged strategy, because frankly, there's a lot of work to do, and we need to do it in many ways if we're going to catch up, right? We don't have 40 years to do this.

• 1:03:09Speaker 01

  Can we double-click on drone manufacturing? I remember a couple of years ago, hearing from a lot of the defense tech drone companies that they didn't have an onshore supplier for small drone motors, for little quad rotors. Everything had been offshored. There was one company I found in Washington that had been sort of hollowed out and offshored their manufacturing, and I was sort of loosely pitching like, oh, someone should do like the American Drone Motor Company of America or something, one of those startups specifically focused on that. But what have you seen in the drone supply chain that is interesting or tractable, or the biggest unsolved problem? Like, what is the state of that supply chain?

• 1:03:54Speaker 01

  Because a lot of the actual founders, you know, they can't exactly go out and say like, oh yeah, we're particularly in trouble on this part, because they have a business to run.

• 1:04:03Gavin Baker?

  It's a great point. So, actually, and the motors, which are called BLDC motors, which are used on these drones, that problem is largely being solved, actually, in a pretty short period of time.

• 1:04:12Speaker 01

  That's great.

• 1:04:13Gavin Baker?

  So, it turns out you could import a lot of the machinery, the winding machinery and so on, and a lot of the machining is quite conventional, and those are not ultra-hard products to make. The actual trick there is the rare earth magnets in those motors.

• 1:04:24Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:04:25Gavin Baker?

  And today, that is still a very difficult supply chain issue. There are a number of companies looking to build that capability in the US, but the motors themselves, a whole bunch of companies ran into that space, and there's actually some danger there'll be overcapacity.

• 1:04:38Speaker 01

  Oh, interesting. Yeah, I remember looking up like, how a drone motor is made, and it's, I don't want to say it's easy, but it's like a pretty simple to understand, like you wind the wire around the magnet, it spins, and it's something that if you had like any degree in engineering, you could sort of like work up to with the right machinery. So, good to hear that's getting solved.

• 1:04:58Gavin Baker?

  Well-understood, and the capital needs to get into it are not ultra-high, right?

• 1:05:03Speaker 01

  That's great.

• 1:05:04Gavin Baker?

  Now, as you get to bigger motors and bigger drones, like Group 3 drones, larger drones, that changes. But the biggest challenge in drones is still that, you know, someone like DJI in China can make a Group 1, this is like a small quadcopter drone, and deliver it in the US for under $2,000, and a typical US-made product is more like $5,000 to $8,000, using US-based supply chain, electronics, et cetera. And as you can imagine, in a military context, it's all about affordable mass, so you want the maximum number of drones at the lowest possible price to win. And so, that price difference is substantial. We've been developing actually what we call a drone core, think of it as a platform that others can put various payloads on, whether those are energetics, or various sensors

• 1:05:47Gavin Baker?

  or whatnot, that we think we can sell in the US wholesale for about $1,600. So, the real radical change there is the development of the production system. How will it be manufactured? And developing that plant at the same time that you're developing the product, because if you look at a traditional drone, again, even from China, they might have 100-plus fasteners, and each of those fasteners requires a person, or a robot, or some kind of automation to make it. So, if you can design a product that eliminates, for example, 100-plus of those fasteners, you can dramatically cut the production cost, the production time, and that's the kind of thing that we need to do if we're going to compete with not just low labor costs, but everything costs less in China.

• 1:06:29Speaker 00

  How are you thinking about your supply chain? How much were robotics part of the pitch in 2020? Was that like, was that a core part of the first five years, or was that always something that was a bit farther out? Because I'm thinking like, there's one situation where the US ends up and where we do sort of like reshore manufacturing, but then we don't, we can't make the robots at scale, so then we have a new dependency, we have to import, you know, so it feels like both those things, we need to have the manufacturing here, but also we need to make the robots here that will actually do the manufacturing.

• 1:07:05Gavin Baker?

  That's true, but I have a little different perspective on robots, which may not be that popular, which is that there's a lot of hype around them. And the problem with robots is that they're attacking a pretty small part of the total production cost, it's largely the elimination of direct labor. And actually, most of the cost and most of the time involves everything around that, a lot of waste. So, the reality is that bringing robots in might take a few percentage points off your total cost at a very high capital expense. You're much better off, much better off, excuse me, trying to implement something like Toyota's lean production system to eliminate all the steps along the way that are wasteful, that don't add value to the product. But in the US, we're very techno-centric, and we like big step change improvements.

• 1:07:49Gavin Baker?

  And so, robots are fun, and so we want robots, instead of grinding it out and every week just pulling a quarter percent or a half a percent of the cost basis out by getting a little more efficient, which the Japanese, frankly, and other cultures are better at. So, we need to adopt more of that kind of ongoing bit-by-bit approach versus, oh, I'm going to put robots here, get rid of all my labor, and all of a sudden I've solved my problems. That won't happen.

• 1:08:14Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah. No, it's very American to be like, well, we have this one trick that's going to solve all of our problems.

• 1:08:20Gavin Baker?

  AI will fix everything. AI is going to solve all problems, right?

• 1:08:24Speaker 01

  I like the way that sounds. Take me through the Slate Auto story, the partnership, how that how that fits together with the company and is there a plan to do more of those type of projects? It's a fascinating product and company that's very exciting, but interesting to see how you interface with it.

• 1:08:43Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, so Slate started as part of Rebuild and then spun out and it's been independently funded since that time. And they're developing a sub $25,000 electric pickup truck. An interesting contrast to the motorcycle example you were talking about, the real value of the product there is not that it's electric versus ICE, it's that it's cost effective. And there are a lot of people today who can't afford a new vehicle or even a reasonably well-performing used vehicle.

• 1:09:11Speaker 01

  The average new car in America just hit over $50,000. I was reading that today. People are stretching out the payment plans to 10, 12 years for a new car. There's so much opportunity for the lower end right now, for sure.

• 1:09:24Gavin Baker?

  That's right. If you go to the parking lots of factories or burrito shops or whatever it is around the country and look at what people that work in those places have to drive, it's amazing that it makes it back and forth to work once, right? So anyway, this business was started to address that problem. And as I mentioned earlier, in the context of drones, the real insight that Slate has leveraged is they've reduced the vehicle to its minimum sort of function and their plant has been designed to produce one product, one SKU over and over again, much lower capital costs, much more cost effective. And then the product's designed so that you can modify it downstream of production very easily. So for example, each vehicle comes in the same color, slate gray, but you can wrap the

• 1:10:08Gavin Baker?

  whole vehicle in any color almost for $500, which is much more cost effective than typically.

• 1:10:13Speaker 01

  And you can modify it, like turn it into an SUV and stuff. There's a whole bunch of kits that are really.

• 1:10:19Gavin Baker?

  Lots of options. So Rebuild today is a supplier to Slate. We produce components for a part of the vehicle, but it's an independent business that was born of Rebuild and is off doing its thing. And to your point earlier, that's part of our model at Rebuild is to help companies like that, whether we instantiate them or someone else to reach critical mass. Jordan.

• 1:10:38Speaker 00

  Very, very cool business.

• 1:10:39Speaker 01

  Tell us about the fundraise. Tell us about the partnership with JP Morgan. I was listening to Jamie Dimon talk about JP Morgan's $1.5 trillion security and resiliency initiative. This feels adjacent to that, but I'd love to hear about the fundraise. I want to smash the gong and then I want to hear about how JP Morgan interfaces with you.

• 1:11:01Gavin Baker?

  Great. Yes, I mean, this fundraiser, which was 2.1 billion. Boom. It's a good gong, I appreciate that, was led by both JP Morgan Chase and General Catalyst. So these are two firms that have very long-term perspective on their investment horizon, right? And so what we're trying to do, which is rebuild industrial capacity here, is a long-term play. And so they've been great partners and their networks are fantastic and their money is quite green. And so between those two things, we can, I think, build this business to be, you know, the multi-billion dollar manufacturing company that will hopefully help set an example and encourage many others to participate in space.

• 1:11:44Speaker 00

  Yeah, I was going to say multi-trillion, but.

• 1:11:47Gavin Baker?

  Yes, many of our board members would go for that, too. Just a little longer.

• 1:11:52Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, just a little longer.

• 1:11:54Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, no. I love it. It's a great partnership. General Catalyst doing so much interesting stuff on the hospital side, getting into reindustrialization now, and they have been previously. And then JP Morgan doing so much more there as well. It's a great partnership.

• 1:12:08Speaker 00

  Yeah, and I appreciate you maybe should be more hype-seeking just because you guys have, you know, had tremendous results and made incredible progress in a very short period of time, but I appreciate how pragmatic you are and just focus on focus on the basics. And I think it's what we need, so. Great to meet you, Miles. Thank you for coming on.

• 1:12:28Speaker 01

  Thank you so much for coming.

• 1:12:29Speaker 00

  Come back on soon.

• 1:12:30Speaker 01

  We'll talk to you soon. Goodbye.

• 1:12:32Speaker 00

  Cheers.

• 1:12:33Speaker 01

  Let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all-in-one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agents to deploy web apps, servers, databases, and more, while Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security. Up next, we have Rahul from Ramp, a CTO, coming on to TPN. Welcome.

• 1:12:48Gavin Baker?

  There he is.

• 1:12:49Speaker 01

  How are you doing?

• 1:12:50Gavin Baker?

  I'm going.

• 1:12:51Speaker 01

  Thank you so much for taking the time.

• 1:12:53Gavin Baker?

  What's happening?

• 1:12:54Speaker 01

  What's going on with this artificial intelligence thing? Anything, anything there?

• 1:12:59Gavin Baker?

  What's going on with AI?

• 1:13:01Speaker 01

  Yeah. I've been hearing a lot about it. You think it's the real deal?

• 1:13:05Gavin Baker?

  I think it's totally real. I mean, we, there's not that many companies who interact with a lot of American businesses and provide AI to them. So we see it, we see the hype, we see the other side, too. And it's great to bring value into it.

• 1:13:20Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, I love, I love the data that's coming out of the Ramp Economics Lab. I love the products that you're working on. What are customers asking for? And then I'm also interested in what are you seeing that customers aren't necessarily asking for, but you want to be able to deliver before they even know to ask for it?

• 1:13:39Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, I mean, so one of the focuses for us is to help businesses automate their finance and manage their money, control their spend. And we've been going after the long tail. So we launched accounts receivable this year. We've been doing bill pay for a couple of years. We have a bank account now, so Ramp Treasury. We do travel, so we're really just going after all the spend. And our customers sell us because we hear from them what they're frustrated about and where their pain points are. But today, I'm actually here to talk about Inspect. We just launched our coding tool and I'm super excited to talk about it.

• 1:14:14Speaker 01

  Yeah, so, I mean, we've seen that Ramp helping you save time and money, Ramp being the software suite for the office of the CFO. It's growing in scope because the CFO's remit is expanding across coding spend. And so router makes sense in that context. How does this product fit into the CFO's suite, the CFO's strategy? Or is this a new motion where you're asking CFOs, can we have an introduction to the CTO? Because we want to deploy that here. How do you think about, how do you think about the actual implementation?

• 1:14:51Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, absolutely. I think when we built Inspect, it was something we built for ourselves. We just wanted a great tool. And of course, we're building software, we're a company of engineers and finance people and everything else, too. We just wanted something that we loved using and we build a lot of software. We want to build software fast. And we found that something was missing in the tools that we could get. And so that's kind of where we started. I mean, AI is a CFO problem. It will become more of a CFO problem. Every CFO is probably sweating right now. They're seeing their bills go up a lot. And so by, just by that, I think CFOs are involved and we're also, our incentives are such that we just want to deliver value to customers. We're not, we're not aligned with just spending more. And this is historically how the business has always operated.

• 1:15:34Gavin Baker?

  We don't want you to spend more, we want you to save money and time. And this is just another way to do that.

• 1:15:39Speaker 01

  So, I mean, the AI coding tool space is so competitive, the landscape's so broad. You have the IDEs, your cursors, your wind surfers, you have coding agents, your Claude codes, your codexes, then you have the always-on agents, the Grok bots and the dots and the muses and the instincts. How are you positioning this? Where do you want it to grow? Where do you want it to deliver value? What's the unique selling proposition right now?

• 1:16:05Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think it's a Ramp-flavored version of a coding agent. The big focus for us was to make sure it works in a company of our scale, our speed, our complexity. I mean, we, just in terms of like how people collaborate across different functions, we made it extremely collaborative multiplayer-first, works in Slack. Every session is public by default, so everybody at the company can see what's happening, what you're talking to. You send over a link and they can continue talking to the agent. And it's kind of a group chat. You're just hanging out with the agents and hanging out with all the AIs and it works across platform, across all models. We also like that it works deeply in our Ramp context. So it actually can run a version of Ramp inside Inspect, which is, it's an enormous

• 1:16:48Gavin Baker?

  engineering challenge because we just wanted to get, have it work with all the stuff we have. And when we did it last year, or a year ago, we knew that AI is going to get better. I mean, it was kind of a clear exponential and just kind of like keep drawing the line and keep going. We were like, okay, so this thing's going to get really smart. And so we needed to like work with our database, our servers, and all the other stuff's going on and download all our code and be able to run and scale really fast. And our engineers were getting very excited. They were using local coding agents. They were like, hey, I need a bigger laptop. And then they would walk around their, the office with their laptops, but sometimes down the street. And so we just wanted to move that experience to the cloud. And so the huge emphasis on, in a secure way, getting all of Ramp working.

• 1:17:31Gavin Baker?

  And now we've since expanded that to code bases of any complexity working inside Inspect. And so the collaborative angle is a big piece for us and then the complexity as well.

• 1:17:40Speaker 01

  How do you think about the, the value prop, not from like the developer experience perspective, but from the CFO's perspective? Is the idea that by being sort of an independent third party, as Ramp has been in the, the big lab race, you can design an agent that uses the best tool for the job? And sometimes that's an OpenAI model, sometimes that's an Anthropic model, sometimes it's Gemini model, might be an open source model, might be something that's fine-tuned. Is there, is there a value where you believe that you can drive the cost per task lower than the leading labs can provide if you're all in on one? And so this allows a company to be multi-lab? Or do you eventually want to get into inference as well? Like, how deep does that go?

• 1:18:23Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, I mean, I think so. The way I think about it is a lot of complexity that these businesses have to solve for is to get their contacts and their data and their repo set up in a lot of different coding agents. And that forces you to effectively pick. And right now, I'm not sure who's, who's winning. And the, the leading model provider changes very, very quickly every few weeks. And so if you had to pick, I don't know what the answer is. And so we wanted to build something that works across all the tools and you can always switch where half the company works on models of this, from a certain lab and the other side of the company is very opinionated. And so we have every, every provider running inference here. And so we also run our own inference for Inspect and we're happy to work with customers for that as well.

• 1:19:06Gavin Baker?

  Our focus, as you said, is we're not incentivized to just like drive up token costs. And so for us, it's like deeply integrated to Ramp Router where you understand where every single session's going, which department's using how much, how many tokens of which model, which service tier, and which reasoning effort. There's a lot of complexity that we're, we're trying to expose to finance people so they can understand and also have controls in addition to engineers on how these dollars are being spent. There's an enormous amount of money flowing through and, I mean, finance people have to be involved.

• 1:19:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:19:36Speaker 00

  How I imagine there's like a bunch of other products like this that you guys are using right now as internal tools. What? Talk about the decision-making process of when you want to open them up to other people through AMP customer base versus when they should just stay internal tools.

• 1:19:53Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, great question. I mean, there's a ton of complexity and automation that actually inspect sets up for us. And so a lot of our automations and internal tools actually works on top of inspect's API. So for us, inspect is an internal coworker. You tell inspect, hey, this person said they had a bug or something is slow or something's not working or their support they wrote in, or we would like to sell to them. So what should we say to them? All kinds of this, this job you can offload inspect because it's plugged into ramp systems. And so we've also since then set up automation to review code to make sure that code is working correctly when it gets to production. Cybersecurity is a big one for inspect. And so all of these internal automations have now kind of been sitting on top of this. And so for us, it's the bedrock, which sits on top of router. So we're building

• 1:20:38Gavin Baker?

  these layers of abstractions that and then we can expose to our customers.

• 1:20:41Speaker 01

  Well, congratulations.

• 1:20:42Speaker 00

  Very cool.

• 1:20:42Speaker 01

  I'm gonna hit the go.

• 1:20:43Speaker 00

  Big one.

• 1:20:46Speaker 01

  Thank you so much for coming on the show.

• 1:20:48Speaker 00

  Very cool launch.

• 1:20:49Speaker 01

  Congratulations.

• 1:20:49Speaker 00

  Congrats to the team.

• 1:20:50Speaker 01

  With the rollout. We'll talk to you soon. Have a great rest of your day.

• 1:20:53Speaker 00

  Goodbye. Cheers.

• 1:20:55Speaker 01

  Let me tell you about the New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. It's right down the street from Ramp. You can go from one to the other in just a few minutes. Our next guest is Gavin Baker from Atreides Management, the managing partner.

• 1:21:11Speaker 00

  I've heard of him before.

• 1:21:13Speaker 01

  Oh, he's been on the show before.

• 1:21:14Speaker 00

  The Baconator.

• 1:21:15Speaker 01

  We're gonna bring him into the TBP and UltraDome and catch up with him. How you doing Gavin? Good to see you.

• 1:21:20Gavin Baker?

  I'm awesome, man. Happiness is a choice. I'm only ever fantastic, awesome, superb, phenomenal.

• 1:21:27Speaker 01

  I mean, I completely agree. I love that happiness is a choice, but also it feels like this is a week to be extra happy. Like the Anthropic S1 went out and it seemed like a beat. It seemed like, like if you were worried, oh, the economics are not working secretly behind the scenes and there's going to be some bombshell in there. The haters have been kind of quiet. Ed Zetron hasn't posted. Like, things are, you know, it seems like things are on track. But what has your interpretation been this week?

• 1:21:55Gavin Baker?

  I do think the Anthropic S1 was pretty clearly an upside surprise.

• 1:21:58Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:21:58Gavin Baker?

  The fact that they've only burned $10 billion.

• 1:22:02Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:22:02Gavin Baker?

  The profitability, the cash generation, the unit economics, they're all very encouraging.

• 1:22:11Gavin Baker?

  You know, I put it on X, but I just cannot believe that whatever it is, half of the Fortune 500 has adopted Anthropic and it's 0.1% of their expenses.

• 1:22:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:22:24Gavin Baker?

  It's just a wild stat.

• 1:22:26Speaker 01

  Yeah. The funny thing is that I read that, I read that as the.

• 1:22:30Speaker 00

  Yeah, we can still hear you.

• 1:22:31Speaker 01

  No, we can hear you. I read that 50%. What?

• 1:22:36Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:22:37Speaker 01

  Oh, just as like, like, okay, yeah, that's incredibly impressive for a company in just a few years to get to half the Fortune 500, the S and P 500 on as customers. But I was kind of like, what are the other half of the S and P 500 doing? I felt like every Fortune 500 would or S and P 500 would be multi-product using everything. But there's a lot of companies that just haven't really gotten through the adoption hiccups of rolling out AI broadly. Maybe some of them are all in on Google or OpenAI. But by and large, I think some of them are just still figuring out how AI can be deployed in their organizations. But is that your read on it? That we're still sort of early on the diffusion story in enterprise?

• 1:23:16Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, very early. I mean, if anything, maybe earlier than I thought we were.

• 1:23:19Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:23:21Gavin Baker?

  And it's, I mean, it's just astonishing. Whatever the number is, 67 billion annualized, if you annualize the reported third quarter, the, you know, wherever the ARR is right now. But to be that big with such low penetration into the Fortune 500.

• 1:23:39Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:23:40Gavin Baker?

  Is, it is pretty extraordinary.

• 1:23:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, totally.

• 1:23:44Speaker 00

  Yeah. How do you, how have you processed the, like, some of the criticism right now of the AI trade is that you have a very small number of companies driving the majority of the spend. I think if you can look historically and say that that same dynamic probably played out with like, social media ads, where like, a very small number of companies were driving a massive amount of the spend. And so you're going to kind of see power laws in a lot of places. My read on it is that you have, like, there are companies based in San Francisco that are just 1,000 times more obsessed with AI than, than, let's say, like, the long-tail of public company employees. And so of course, they're going to spend dramatically more.

• 1:24:25Speaker 00

  And it's possible that that long tail never actually cares enough, but they sort of fade to relative obscurity. And you have the disruptors that are saying like, yeah, this technology is real, it works. It's not perfect yet. It's not like a drop-in coworker that will immediately, you give it a dollar and it'll give you $10 back. But it's very capable. And so if you obsess over it. And so that's been sort of my overall read. Like, I don't think it's necessarily, of course, you'd want a more diversified revenue base if you could. But in general, it feels very natural that all this spend is coming from a very small group of people that like, realize that something fundamental has changed and they're trying to take every advantage of it while the rest of the world is asleep.

• 1:25:09Gavin Baker?

  I might respectfully disagree a little. In S1, there are only 250 accounts spending more than $10 million. So actually, you know, somebody in the New York Times said that, you know, maybe 10 days ago, that 80% of their revenue came from eight customers. I was actually shocked how diversified their customer base actually was. And if you are.

• 1:25:34Speaker 00

  The number to me was the, something like 11,000 or 12,000 spending over $100,000. Like, that, that feels diversified.

• 1:25:41Gavin Baker?

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:25:42Speaker 00

  But I'm, but I'm talking about like, the ramp data that's saying like, look, like, 1% of companies are spending, you know, 90% of the dollars.

• 1:25:51Gavin Baker?

  Well, I, I mean, the ramp data is what it is, but we have much more authoritative data now from the Anthropic S1.

• 1:25:58Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:25:58Gavin Baker?

  And it shows a very diversified spending base for Anthropic.

• 1:26:03Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:26:04Gavin Baker?

  Now, maybe the ramp data is correct for AI overall.

• 1:26:07Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:26:07Gavin Baker?

  But the Anthropic S1, like, relative to a thought that, you know, Meta was spending $10 billion.

• 1:26:13Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:26:13Gavin Baker?

  And there were these multiple billion-dollar-plus accounts that were driving it all. That just, it's much more diversified customer base for Anthropic. And then for the AI broadly, I do think that something that has happened since June is, you've really seen, you know, first, we saw OpenAI really accelerate in the summer. And has OpenAI accelerated? So did open weight models. And there are so many companies, you know, whether it's fireworks, whether it's Base10, whether it's Together, whether it's Modal, whether it's cognition, that are at scale, really open weight first. And they're all growing faster than either

• 1:26:54Gavin Baker?

  OpenAI or Anthropic. And that was true when OpenAI was really accelerating in the summer. And it's still true in October, when Anthropic has had clearly a pretty big re-acceleration. Like, I just, I'm pretty skeptical that they would have put the, you know, the, you know, the blank space for the October ARR in the S1, if they didn't know it was going to be pretty good.

• 1:27:17Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:27:19Gavin Baker?

  And I do think it'll be great for the market to get away from these monthly ARR things. But to me.

• 1:27:24Speaker 00

  Yeah, it's interesting.

• 1:27:25Gavin Baker?

  Yeah.

• 1:27:26Speaker 00

  Like, seeing the, the, the Modal's, the Base10's, the fireworks, the Together's, all out, can probably, I feel like this is common knowledge. Basically, all, they've all been out in market. And so, private markets investors have been getting these sort of updates. And a lot of these companies have been like, starting fundraises, growing dramatically from the period where they got their first term sheet to when they're actually like, pulling in capital. And so that, that data is like, broadly, like, I would say the East Coast is just not aware of that at all. Some of them are picking it up, but it's not like, sort of common knowledge. Whereas on the West, I would say, like, over here, people are like, yeah, these companies are, were already at scale. And then they're growing,

• 1:28:09Speaker 00

  you know, double digits, just during the period of like, first term sheet to close. Or like, first close.

• 1:28:17Gavin Baker?

  Well, my firm, Atreides, led the last fireworks round. And it was actually hard to price it because they were growing so fast.

• 1:28:27Speaker 01

  Like, I thought we had a handshake.

• 1:28:28Gavin Baker?

  Yeah.

• 1:28:29Speaker 01

  Like, well, we've increased revenue.

• 1:28:31Speaker 00

  Yesterday's price is not today's price.

• 1:28:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, you're like, please, like, let's just get the deal done.

• 1:28:37Gavin Baker?

  I mean, literally, it's like, the valuation was going, you know, the multiple was effectively going down, you know, every day.

• 1:28:42Speaker 01

  Every day. Yeah, that's crazy.

• 1:28:45Gavin Baker?

  And if anything, it feels like that ecosystem has accelerated and diversified.

• 1:28:50Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:28:51Gavin Baker?

  Because earlier this year, Cursor was a real big driver for all those inference clouds.

• 1:28:55Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:28:55Gavin Baker?

  And I mean, I. X cursor growth, I think, you know, is what's really extraordinary. And that's just because, you know, SpaceX has been insourcing the cursor compute.

• 1:29:05Speaker 01

  Yes. So on on cursor SpaceX, like the post-merger integration, it feels like Grokbot has stepped forward in terms of capability. Is the key to growth there? Like, we haven't seen the the models from XAI like stun on a particular benchmark, but the cursor team has always been fantastic on product and distribution. In the prior era, Grok was putting up pretty remarkable results on the on the benchmarks, but then there were all the political considerations and the product was banned in some companies. It feels like Grokbot might be in a particularly different slot because they have that go-to-market motion through cursor with the cursor design team behind it. Is that what's driving growth

• 1:29:49Speaker 01

  there? What are you seeing on the Grokbot side that's actually showing acceleration in that product category?

• 1:29:56Gavin Baker?

  I mean, as a user, Grokbot is the most impactful AI product to me and to and to our, you know, to the to the to the firm.

• 1:30:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:30:06Gavin Baker?

  That we've had yet. Like, I, you know, I clued together all this stuff with Claude Code and like, really, you know, I'm sure it was user error on my part, you know, 50 years old, I'm doing my best. But Grokbot, it just makes it so easy. I think I'm up to like 17 Grokbots. And every day I think of a new one to add.

• 1:30:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, you're getting a layer of somebody, the senior manager, senior Grokbot. How are you? How are you personally dividing AI agents across your personal life and your professional life? Because a lot of people will have like a family office with a personal assistant who manages, you know, getting gifts for their family members or planning birthday parties. And then separately, they'll have an executive assistant who plans their business travel and their calendar for work stuff. And it feels like we might be entering a world where those two merge together and you have one agent that does everything. But we also might wind up in a world where people are using Grokbot at work or Claude Code at work and then Instinct or Muse and Personal and OpenAI has products in both.

• 1:31:12Speaker 01

  And they're sort of like a an array, but it's a decision for everyone. How have you been grappling with it?

• 1:31:18Gavin Baker?

  Well, I guess you would say I I guess I have executive assistant privilege because my assistant Susan is exceptional.

• 1:31:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:31:24Gavin Baker?

  Yeah. I have not felt the need, you know, to, yeah, I've, of course, downloaded Instinct and played around with Muse.

• 1:31:32Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:31:33Gavin Baker?

  But, and I could see they would be super amazing if if I did have someone like Susan in my professional life, but I do.

• 1:31:42Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:31:45Gavin Baker?

  But for the more professional use cases, I mean, Grokbot has just been transformative for me.

• 1:31:54Speaker 01

  Yeah, there is something.

• 1:31:55Gavin Baker?

  So much as, yeah, so much of the best he is making sure that the right information gets to the right person at the right time.

• 1:32:01Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:32:01Gavin Baker?

  And Grokbot is so good at that.

• 1:32:04Speaker 01

  Yeah. And there's also something so satisfying with the AI agents of like, it can be 10:00 PM on a Sunday and you can kick off like a real research effort that, yes, you could probably call someone on your team and say, I need you to, like, that would be crossing a professional line. All of a sudden, you'd be like, kind of a hassle of a work of a boss and people might not want to work there because like, hey, he calls me every time he takes a shower. He has a shower thought and then I got to work for six hours. But instead, the AI is like, yeah, boss, I'm right here. Oh, I'd love to look that up for you and spend a million tokens figuring out, you know, with the market size of something or other. But yeah.

• 1:32:42Gavin Baker?

  Well, my policy is actually anybody at Tradies is always welcome to call me anytime on the weekend. I try not to call people.

• 1:32:50Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:32:50Gavin Baker?

  On the weekends. Yeah.

• 1:32:55Speaker 00

  So how, so I think like, you know, rewind, this week is, you know, Anthropic S1 week. And so there's, there's a lot of focus there. Last week, it felt like the focus was like the general attention was towards how much supply is coming online next year, how many gigawatts SpaceX is going to bring online. How are you? What's your, what's your, you know, generally, you've maintained a sort of bullishness that that some other people on the timeline have lost here and there. But how are you processing like, how the, how the, how the industry can sort of absorb all of that supply if we hit the higher end

• 1:33:40Speaker 00

  of some of the ranges being discussed? And, and, and is it just Jevon's paradox, you know, again, and again, and again, and again, until we finally, everyone says like, you know, everyone likes to say it, but it's hard to fully internalize?

• 1:33:55Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, I think that's, I think that's right. It's, it's easy to say, it's, it's hard to internalize and believe. And October has kind of been a strange month because the price to rent essentially any kind of a GPU has gone up every day. So the spot market for compute is getting tighter. And it's not just the spot market. You know, it is, I do love reading these primers on X from, you know, commodity and macro investors about these super complicated concepts called backwardation and contango and what they might mean for the forward curve of compute and the future price of compute. You know,

• 1:34:36Gavin Baker?

  these are contango, backwardation. But, you know, Silicon Data, which I do think is, you know, my firm is an investor in them, but I do think they're the most authoritative data source. Carmen Lee, the founder, stood up at GTC and said that the compute market is now in contango. The, you know, the forward, it's not just that the spot market is tight. If you want to cluster a year from now, you have to pay a lot of money.

• 1:35:06Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:35:06Gavin Baker?

  And this is, and this is maybe another, you know, discontinuity between public and private markets. But just the number of companies we have in our portfolio who are like, okay, we got a cluster of 4,000 Blackwells and, you know, and we got it in May or June of 26. And we want to bring on another cluster of 4,000 in September 2027. And they are shocked by how much more they have to pay in the future. And it's not like they're, everybody is unaware of this, everybody's aware of the supply that's coming on. But even with all of that supply coming on, it is hard for the companies in our portfolio

• 1:35:50Gavin Baker?

  to find compute even well into 27. So for, you know, all the commodity experts who are focused on backwardation and what that implied, I got news for you, we're not in backwardation anymore. And then I do think, as far as how much capacity is going to come online, one thing that I think is actually healthy about what's happened in these financing markets is I hope it concentrates capacity and supply in the competent operators where they can finance it through prepayments. You know, you can kind of finance these GPU purchases two ways. By the way, CoreWeave is great. CoreWeave runs GPU as well. They bring them

• 1:36:32Gavin Baker?

  up. They, they are very, very good. They just sadly locked in a vast amount of compute and long-term contracts that are now way, way under market. You know, and I think they're doing.

• 1:36:46Speaker 01

  So they sold their, they sold their GPUs for fixed prices. And that's why they're getting hammered right now. It's not that they don't have compute, they're not bringing it on. They have the semi-analysis diamond tier. Everyone knows that the clusters work, they're good, they are reliable, but they just sold for too cheap and they should have held on or had variable pricing.

• 1:37:06Speaker 00

  Is you think Elon studied that and said like, we're not going to make that same mistake? And that's why they're adopting this more short-term contract model?

• 1:37:15Gavin Baker?

  I don't, Elon is a first principles thinker. I don't think he was probably studying CoreWeave or Nebius or really anyone else.

• 1:37:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:37:23Gavin Baker?

  He was probably reasoning from first principles, but the conclusion he came to is prices are going up. We, if we are willing to sell into the spot market, we can have paybacks well under a year.

• 1:37:35Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:37:36Gavin Baker?

  Get big prepayments.

• 1:37:37Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:37:38Gavin Baker?

  And that's, I think that's a better probably financing model for the market we're in. And what I also like about it, and by the way, CoreWeave, I think, is very aware of this. They're trying to get more spot exposure. They're trying to, you know, do less of these big, long-term off-take agreements. But standing up a big GPU cluster, that's just bringing on the power, standing up a cluster, it's like running a Formula One team. And a bunch of people who have no real relevant experience, you know, whatever, they acquire some land and some power and then, you know, they get a zero down payment

• 1:38:18Gavin Baker?

  off-take agreement from someone. And a lot of that is being cleaned up. And I think,

• 1:38:30Gavin Baker?

  you know, supply is being, what this is a forcing function to allocate GPUs to people who can actually bring on a cluster, energize the GPUs, run it well, like, you know, running a Formula One team, it's like really hard. You got to like, pack everything up, put it on a plane, go to a new city, unpack it, set it up, set the car up. You need all the people, you know, to like, you know, whatever, change the tires, to change the rear wing if you get in a collision, to, you know, do whatever needs to be done during the race, to do the strategy, to communicate with the driver. It's really, really hard. And it's not like, you know, some of these people, they don't have the relevant experience. You

• 1:39:15Gavin Baker?

  know, CoreWeave, Crusoe, Nebius, SpaceX, the big hyperscalers, you know, these are companies that can bring on GPUs and energize them and run them. But, and I do think something that was announced at GTC Berlin is actually pretty important for this, and that's that DSX pod, which is going to make it a lot easier, you know?

• 1:39:36Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:39:37Gavin Baker?

  Seven racks, it comes preassembled, you know, you just kind of literally plug it in and it works. And right now, when you get the GPUs, you know, maybe if you're, if you're SpaceX and you're really, really exceptional at execution in the physical world, you can get them energized quickly. But a lot of people, it takes them six months, you know, three months, six months to get them energized, really get them working. And if we can, through, you know, this new product from Jensen, get that time down, I think that, that's also healthy because that effectively takes a lot of working capital out of the market. You know, you have, as these numbers are getting bigger, if it takes six months to energize them, you know, that could be hundreds of billions. Millions of dollars of assets that are not generating revenue.

• 1:40:22Gavin Baker?

  So I think that's another, that's a product innovation that's going to help with this. But I think this is, um, you know, we, we will see who, who energizes GPUs in, in, in, in 27. I'm, I'm confident that the, you know, the companies I named, I think they're gonna, I mean, the future is always uncertain, but these are companies with a proven track record of execution.

• 1:40:47Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:40:47Gavin Baker?

  And we'll see about others.

• 1:40:48Speaker 01

  So I have a follow up on that. Um, one is, uh, just one click higher from the Neo clouds or the Neo labs. And there's been this speculation that Neo clouds might, uh, Neo labs might sort of pivot into Neo clouds. Is that dynamic going to look like they signed a multi-year off take agreement with a Neo cloud? And then they want us to just sell into the spot market. That's what's going to happen?

• 1:41:08Gavin Baker?

  Yes. I mean, what Sarah Fryer said, and Sarah Fryer is an exceptional CFO.

• 1:41:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:41:14Gavin Baker?

  She said, you know, everybody made fun of us for signing all these compute commitments and we could sell them all at a three, four or five X premium.

• 1:41:21Speaker 01

  Today.

• 1:41:22Gavin Baker?

  And she was being literal.

• 1:41:24Speaker 01

  Yep. Yep.

• 1:41:25Gavin Baker?

  And so if you, if you signed a long-term compute contract.

• 1:41:29Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:41:30Gavin Baker?

  Really at any point prior to May of 2026, you are way in the money. You're buying compute for, you know, maybe 10 or 15, 10 or 15 dollars a watt. And you could sell it at a massive premium to that today.

• 1:41:48Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:41:49Gavin Baker?

  And then the point, the point, you know, that Carmen made about, you know, the, uh, the forward curve being in contango is actually really important. And just like, it's not just the spot market. It's tight today. You have to pay vast amount, even with all this capacity coming online, you have to pay a truly vast amount to bring on a cluster in mid to late 27. And I think that's something that just maybe public markets are not appreciating, even though, you know, it's not, all of this is public, you know, Sarah Fryer said that. You know, the, all these inference clouds have kind of given press releases. You hear a bunch of people on X talk about how hard it is to find compute into 27.

• 1:42:30Gavin Baker?

  Carmen Lee stands up and says, you know, like the market in 27 is, is crazy strong. So it's all out there, but I think for whatever reason, it's not legible to the public markets.

• 1:42:42Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:42:43Speaker 00

  Uh, what, talk about your outlook on biology as a, as a, as an area that, that the labs are investing in. It feels very exciting and that there's, you know, tremendous potential, but I think that overall concern is around timelines. It's like, there's very real costs, like coming online, infrastructure costs and opportunities in biology seem like they're very real, but, uh, may take, you know, years to get these, you know, will almost certainly take years to get drugs in market and actually drive, you know, revenue that would then finance.

• 1:43:21Gavin Baker?

  Yeah. I mean, we'll, we'll see how long it takes. You know, Montana has an interesting new program for, for new drugs, which I think is helpful. But I think a really big unlock, we, we have a lot of compounds and people have used AI to figure out that you can use, um, may, maybe a drug that we've had for 50 or 60 years for a very rare disease that's devastating for like 10,000 kids a year and effectively cure that disease. And a friend of mine did this and it's, you know, it's, it's, it's his story to tell. So I'm not going to tell it. But AI has already saved a lot of lives.

• 1:44:01Gavin Baker?

  And I do think, you know, the AI industry, it's, you know, they're like negative five out of 100 from like a PR.

• 1:44:10Speaker 01

  A hundred percent.

• 1:44:11Gavin Baker?

  But they.

• 1:44:12Speaker 00

  We gotta be more like pharma, the popular kids.

• 1:44:14Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly.

• 1:44:16Gavin Baker?

  Well, no, they need to start telling these stories.

• 1:44:18Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:44:19Gavin Baker?

  Um, and by the way, are, you guys are coming to tomorrow X.

• 1:44:22Speaker 01

  We are, we are November 17th, 18th, we'll be there with.

• 1:44:26Speaker 00

  Lineup is, the lineup is unbelievable.

• 1:44:28Speaker 01

  The lineup is crazy. Jensen Wong, David Solomon, Mike Rowan, Lisa Su, Stan Druckenmiller, so many more.

• 1:44:34Gavin Baker?

  Leet Boon, so many people.

• 1:44:36Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:44:37Gavin Baker?

  But the one thing I just want to say is, I get like 25 emails or texts today saying, hey, man, can I come to your conference? And the answer is you can just sign up.

• 1:44:48Speaker 01

  Yeah, you can just sign up.

• 1:44:49Gavin Baker?

  Anyone can come. Now there's going to be a security screen.

• 1:44:52Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 1:44:52Gavin Baker?

  Cause of some of the people who are coming and I do, you know, there are unannounced speakers that are, you know, comparable in caliber to some of those you referenced. Um, so we're going to have a lot of security at the conference and everybody's, you'll be screened, but you can just sign up. You do not need to ask me. You don't need to ask Antonio. You can just come. And it's like, the whole goal is to kind of democratize investing. And in, in addition to those companies, you know, we are, we're going to have Lynn from fireworks, Chase from Crusoe, Scott from cognition, we're going to have Max from Legora. We're going to have a lot of these companies.

• 1:45:28Speaker 01

  Yeah, based on.

• 1:45:29Gavin Baker?

  Tuan, Tuan from Base 10.

• 1:45:31Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:45:31Gavin Baker?

  Um, we are going to have a lot of these CEOs there that are going to be on a stage. And then we're going to have, you know, dozens of other private CEOs. And, you know, it's a, it's an attempt to kind of like open up the aperture of, you know, information for retail investors and democratize this. So like, if you're wondering about coming, just sign up. You don't need to ask me.

• 1:46:01Speaker 01

  Tomorrow X summit.com, not Gavin Baker's email. You can go to a URL.

• 1:46:08Speaker 00

  Once you're there, you can get, you can get Gavin to sign.

• 1:46:13Speaker 01

  And they will email you when you sign up. Yes.

• 1:46:17Gavin Baker?

  Um, yeah.

• 1:46:18Speaker 01

  What, what, what do you think will change in the content and the conversation between last year's event and this year's event? What are you hoping to get across?

• 1:46:27Gavin Baker?

  Well, we did, this is the first time.

• 1:46:28Speaker 00

  This is the first one.

• 1:46:29Speaker 01

  Oh, sure.

• 1:46:29Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:46:30Speaker 01

  Oh, sorry. Yeah, yeah.

• 1:46:31Gavin Baker?

  I'm excited. We're going to have, you know, we're going to have bysiders doing the fireside chats. Um, we're going to have, you know, management teams are going to have the opportunity. We've, if you were an active contributor on X, Substack, Reddit, you get to come for free.

• 1:46:46Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:46:47Gavin Baker?

  Um, and then management teams are going to be able to do a breakout session with all of those X accounts. So if you're, if you're one of the, you know, four or 500, you know, kind of, you know, financial commentators that we've given a scholarship to, you're going to get, you know, a lot of management teams are going to opt in and you're going to be able to kind of have your own session with the management team to ask your questions. Then you're going to be able to go write what you learned for your audience. Um, and I'm, you know, I think we have a really high quality, you know, I, I, I, I picked most of them. And you don't have to be bullish. You know, I want, you know, I love skeptics. I love bears.

• 1:47:29Gavin Baker?

  You just, you just have to be polite and nice and constructive and you can be bearish while being polite, nice and constructive. And, you know, we're, we have loads of, we have loads of skeptics. We have loads of optimists. Like, I think it's going to be great. And then I, I hope every CEO does, you know, uh, you know, kind of a hit on your show after they're on stage or before.

• 1:47:49Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:47:49Gavin Baker?

  Um, I'm.

• 1:47:51Speaker 00

  Yeah, it might be the longest, it might be the longest TVP on episode ever.

• 1:47:54Speaker 01

  I think so.

• 1:47:55Speaker 00

  See, how do you deal with, how, how do you deal with, um, all the, uh, all the attention, positive and negative?

• 1:48:04Gavin Baker?

  Do you mean for me?

• 1:48:05Speaker 00

  Yeah, for you, for you. I know. I just feel like I, you, I, you, you talked about your, your mindset right at the beginning of the show, just, you know, you know, it's a choice to be happy, but, uh, I feel like when it comes, when the, the, the spotlight, you know, once every week shines directly on you. There's a lot of love, a little bit of hate sprinkled in there.

• 1:48:27Gavin Baker?

  There's.

• 1:48:28Speaker 00

  The whole, the full spectrum of human emotions.

• 1:48:29Gavin Baker?

  We can call it what it is. I mean, there, there, there are a lot of, there are a lot of detractors, let's say. I would just say, look, Antonio, who I'm doing the conference with, he says being on X is an exercise in cultivated equanimity. I don't take any of it personally. I'm not on X to be right. I'm, right now I would, you know, I'm, I'm a responsible optimist, but I'm trying to be open-minded to new negative facts and constantly search them out. But I'm really on X, you know, to learn and I, you know, all of the hate, like I try to sift through it for, oh, wow, that is actually a very good, compelling bearish argument. Um, you know, like there was an interesting post, I forget, it was like PE analyst or LBO analyst.

• 1:49:14Gavin Baker?

  And it just said, hey, you know, the fact that Anthropic is dedicating 74% of their compute to training, you could read it, and on the one hand, it's bullish because they could be generating a lot more revenue. On the other hand, if all this compute is being, uh, dedicated towards training and for any reason, somebody decides you need less compute for training, that's a lot of supply that could hit the inference market. And hey, wow, that's like a really interesting, you know, bearish perspective. And so, you know, um,

• 1:49:49Gavin Baker?

  I'm human. I don't, like I'm human, but it's also just like, I'm here to learn. I want to get to the right answer. I'm sharing my views. If somebody shares and, you know, a helpful negative perspective, I try to thank them. I need to go like thank that, that person, LBO analyst, I think it was. I didn't have time. Um, but yeah, it's, it's an exercise in cultivate, cultivated equanimity. Can't, you, you, you can't, um, you can't take it personally.

• 1:50:18Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 1:50:19Gavin Baker?

  But I do, I am trying, you know, doing what little I can, you know, has like Gavin Baker, you know, I don't have millions or tens of millions of followers, but I am trying to help paint, I think a more optimistic vision for AI, doing what, what I can to help the American public understand that, hey, like, you actually want a data center in your, in your town, you know, one of my favorite exchanges was, somebody said, well, I, I'll wait until they start building data centers at the wealthiest county in America. Well, Luden County is the wealthiest county in America. They have the highest per capita data centers.

• 1:50:59Speaker 01

  Yep. Um, Virginia, US East.

• 1:51:02Gavin Baker?

  Yeah.

• 1:51:03Speaker 01

  Amazon.

• 1:51:04Gavin Baker?

  US East availability.

• 1:51:05Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:51:06Gavin Baker?

  So just understanding that like, I understand why, you know, some people are worried. Um, there, there's been a lot of fear. There's, you know, that we've all seen scary movies, but a lot of awesome things are happening today. Because of AI, for ordinary Americans, for blue collar Americans, for these small towns, we're re-industrializing America. We're, you know, massively increasing our electrical.

• 1:51:31Gavin Baker?

  Generation capacity, which is you cannot re-industrialize without power. That's job number one. So I think a lot of good things are happening and I'm just trying to do what little I can to at least tell that side of the story. And then be pretty balanced, like, you know, Anthropic, I called it like I saw it in the summer. They were losing market share. Calling it like I see it in October. They are re-accelerating and gaining share. The S1, it was an upside surprise to me. I'm trying to call balls and strikes. Cause my job is to just get it right.

• 1:52:09Speaker 00

  And it's funny, cause you know, people will get so flustered by, you know, seeing different posts on X. But imagine how boring X would be if no one ever took a stand. It was just like, well, it might be this, it might be that, and it might be this.

• 1:52:23Speaker 01

  No, no, no. It's over, or we're back. This is the best thing ever in the world. Cause then we can have a debate. At least you took a stand. Yeah, it's great. Jordy mentioned getting sharp on bio, starting to think about opportunities there. How deep have you gone in the AI stack? I saw a funny post that was like, you could spend all your time thinking about OpenAI and Anthropic and Google. Or and then, you know, meet all the Neo clouds and meet Lynn and Tuin and figure out what's going on in the private markets. Or you could just buy copper and you could just sit there and hold copper, right? Cause like, it's almost a perfect proxy or something like that. But how far have you gone down into energy, infrastructure, commodities? Like, how, how sharp are you on those?

• 1:53:05Speaker 01

  How, how relevant or interesting is, are those markets to you in this world, since they do seem adjacent?

• 1:53:11Gavin Baker?

  No, I pay close attention to all of those. I ran a diversified fund in my life for nine years. You know, I was an energy investor.

• 1:53:20Gavin Baker?

  You know, natural resources, I always, for many years I did, would do like kind of marketing meetings with the, with the gold analyst at, at my prior employer, Fidelity. Always, you know, knew about the merits of gold from a portfolio construction perspective, would always have it in the fund. By the way, just because it triggers people, I want to say it. I find it so amusing how upset gold bulls get at the idea of asteroid mining.

• 1:53:54Gavin Baker?

  No one, no one has ever been, I've never gotten more hate than from the gold crowd about the idea of asteroid mining in the asteroid.

• 1:54:06Gavin Baker?

  I mean, it was like, talk about a challenge to your world.

• 1:54:11Speaker 00

  You have to, like, you need to imagine technological disruption, right? Like, look at the diamond industry, right? Like, if you, if you understood that the technology disruption was possible, you probably built labs, like, you know, 20 years ago.

• 1:54:27Gavin Baker?

  Maybe you would have done something different with that, you know, with the diamonds in your family. But, um, but as far as, I mean, I do, we have spent a lot of time on like energy, on the industrial infrastructure, on, on natural resources.

• 1:54:44Gavin Baker?

  But we have not made it a big part of the portfolio. We've done some things in private markets as far as trying to help with rare earths. And, but this is not through acquiring mines. It's more, you know, the problem with rare earths, it's not that they're rare, it's that refining them is a very dirty process. Yeah. So we, we, you know, we've invested in a company that, you know, has a chemical process for refining rare earths. And, you know, I actually think DARPA has done some pretty smart stuff, like they kind of have a, a lot of different efforts around this. But yeah, I mean, I try to pay as close attention to all of it as I can because you, um,

• 1:55:25Gavin Baker?

  you know, as an investor, you, you, you never know where a weak but important signal is going to come from. And so want to cast as wide a net as possible, but then also kind of focus maybe a portfolio on the areas where I do feel like maybe we have the, the biggest competitive advantage has affirmed.

• 1:55:44Speaker 01

  How are you thinking about the evolution of like the, the marginal capital decider sort of changing in 2027 potentially? Like, if you go back a couple of years, you have essentially like seed stage VCs making bets on these AI labs. And then eventually some, you know, more scaled up venture firms being important capital partners. Some of them have taken board seats, but they are not deciding the race now. It's big hedge funds, pre-IPO rounds, but we're coming up to a world where the fidelities of the world, the insurance agencies are going to be involved, the insurance funds and sovereign wealth funds are going to be increasingly involved in financing the build out.

• 1:56:27Speaker 01

  Like, what does the next year look like from a perspective of like, how we get the big dollars into the AI build out?

• 1:56:36Gavin Baker?

  I mean, I think you named all the big dollar sources. And something that I think is pretty underappreciated is, you know, American mutual funds. You are limited in the percentage you can hold in a liquid asset. And so SpaceX and Anthropic. Going public is actually going to free up a huge amount of buying power.

• 1:56:59Speaker 01

  Interesting.

• 1:57:00Gavin Baker?

  In private markets.

• 1:57:03Gavin Baker?

  Once those are fully unlocked, because they have to be public and unlocked. So, um, I think you will see mutual funds, you know, and they, they, they've always been involved. You know, my former colleagues, Capital Research, Dero Price, M-Sam, G-Sam, you know, Franklin Templeton. If I forgot anyone, I'm sorry. Um, I love you all. But like, they've been, they've been pretty involved. I mean, the sovereigns have been very involved, particularly, you know, particularly the ones in the GCC and particularly the ones in the UAE. Like MGX, Mubadala, all the sovereigns there. I mean, Atreides and Baller, we co-led Crusoe with Mubadala.

• 1:57:48Gavin Baker?

  So I think the, um, the UAE in particular has been extremely front footed with all their sovereigns with respect to AI.

• 1:57:58Speaker 01

  And now Apollo is taking a stake in Mubadala, uh, which sort of completes the, the cycle.

• 1:58:04Gavin Baker?

  Yes, yeah.

• 1:58:08Gavin Baker?

  But I mean, that, that's going to have to evolve, but it's also, I do think we're probably getting, has these underpriced, so all these clouds, they signed contracts at well below what are below market values. And has those contracts repriced higher, has they bring on more compute with more spot like we discussed with, you know, the same thing that CoreWeave is, is, is trying to do. I do think you're going to see, like, there's a pretty big acceleration in the clouds last quarter. And, you know, forget relative to expectations, this or that.

• 1:58:47Gavin Baker?

  But I think you're going to see a pretty continuous acceleration in the sum of the big hyperscaler cloud revenue growth. The Neo clouds, that number is just going to continue to accelerate. And then, you know, it's, it's dropping down at very high margins so that, you know, operating cash flow is following. And then you're going to be able to, I think, finance probably more than people think of the 2027 build out.

• 1:59:18Gavin Baker?

  Out of cash flow. Like, I don't know if we've seen the peak of external financing, but, um, I think we're getting close.

• 1:59:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, that's.

• 1:59:28Gavin Baker?

  And that'll be really helpful.

• 1:59:30Speaker 01

  Totally, yeah. No, no one can complain about that. That's just, uh, yeah, investing in the future.

• 1:59:34Speaker 00

  AI skeptics will be.

• 1:59:36Speaker 01

  In a bad place.

• 1:59:37Speaker 00

  In a horrible place. We're going to have to check on, check on them. You're going to have to go around.

• 1:59:42Gavin Baker?

  Maybe I'm, maybe I'm wrong and, you know, but like, I will change my mind when the facts change. And I'm just going to try and keep calling balls and strikes and then trying to, you know, be an advocate to help understand ordinary Americans that this technology can and should be awesome for them.

• 2:00:01Speaker 00

  Yeah, I'm, I'm very interested to see how Anthropic and OpenAI, OpenAI becoming public companies like impacts like overall sentiment, specifically on X, because right now you have such a small number of people that actually hold shares in these companies, right? And so like, maybe there's 50,000 people that have some incentive to be relatively optimistic. One, you know, or, you know, you should be able to see both the bull case and the bear case for, for any company. But when that changes and you have millions of people globally that suddenly can have exposure, how does sentiment change, right? And I think, I think people are going to be, I, I think it will be less, much less extreme.

• 2:00:45Speaker 00

  Once you have the, the, the sort of middle of the road investor has some exposure, right? And it's not like totally binary, where like very, very small number of people have exposure. Like, and, and, and it's direct exposure, right? Cause if you happen to own shares through some retirement fund or through a hyperscaler or things like that.

• 2:01:06Gavin Baker?

  Maybe some of them will do what Elon did, you know? Every child in America is going to have a share of SpaceX. That's awesome. I think that's way better for America than setting up some foundation. That, you know, a board or a bunch of bureaucrats are going to decide how to allocate the money. You know, just give people the money.

• 2:01:27Gavin Baker?

  Let people make individual decisions. And I would, you know, I would encourage more company and more, you know, more wealthy. People in America to do what Elon and Michael Dell and of course, you know, my friend Brad Kirchner have done. Um, that's awesome for America and great for capitalism.

• 2:01:45Speaker 01

  Yeah. And it's, it feels so important that that infrastructure got built before the big liquidity wave, before SpaceX goes public so that it's there and it's been tested and it's been implemented, rolled out, uh, so that, uh, anyone who wants to participate in that can actually go and like, take advantage of it, uh, without needing to, you know, say, oh, it'd be nice if the government had a program that would let, let me give shares directly to the American populace. It's like, nope, it's there, it works, it's up to date. Like it's in the app store. You can go download it.

• 2:02:13Gavin Baker?

  Yeah. Just give, give people the money. Yeah. Give everybody a stake in capitalism.

• 2:02:18Speaker 01

  Yeah. No, I completely agree. It's great. Uh, well, thank you.

• 2:02:21Speaker 00

  Well, we'll see you very soon.

• 2:02:22Speaker 01

  We'll see you.

• 2:02:22Speaker 00

  Yeah. Tomorrow X summit.com.

• 2:02:25Speaker 01

  Tomorrow X summit, November 17th, 18th, Austin, Texas. We'll see you there. Have a great rest of your day.

• 2:02:31Speaker 00

  Cheers, guys. Good to see you.

• 2:02:32Speaker 01

  Goodbye. Let me tell you about Codex. Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents. Whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows, Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish. Here's a project you could do with Codex. Find a T-Rex skeleton because if you do, you might be the lucky owner of $47 million in cash. Do we have a next guest?

• 2:02:58Speaker 00

  I thought we did.

• 2:02:59Speaker 01

  No, I, I, I think we're done with our guest. Uh, so Sotheby's just sold Jody. I re, I almost read this as Jordy. You almost read this as Jordy and I was like, that's nice of them to name a skeleton after Jordy Hayes. After all, he did major in dinosaurs over here.

• 2:03:15Speaker 00

  I studied the blade.

• 2:03:16Speaker 01

  He studied the blade. He didn't major in dinosaurs. He took a class, right, in college? But you have, you have a collegiate level understanding of dinosaurs, which I think is extremely impressive.

• 2:03:26Speaker 00

  No, I took that class, uh, with some of my buddies and we had multiple people that had to retake the class because they failed.

• 2:03:34Speaker 01

  That's amazing.

• 2:03:34Speaker 00

  It was like, it was, it was such a trick.

• 2:03:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:03:36Speaker 00

  Uh, in school because it was, it like checked off some requirement.

• 2:03:40Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:03:41Speaker 00

  And, and it's like, it was kind of a meme.

• 2:03:43Speaker 01

  Yeah. Yeah. Oh, it's easy, but then if you don't take it seriously a little bit.

• 2:03:46Speaker 00

  The inside joke is that it's like, it's very, very hard.

• 2:03:50Speaker 01

  Oh, it's actually hard.

• 2:03:50Speaker 00

  Required, but, but not, not in an interesting way, just like hardcore memorization.

• 2:03:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, memorization.

• 2:03:56Speaker 00

  Like whatever the different, you know, trees.

• 2:03:59Speaker 01

  But that is incredibly practical wisdom. I mean, if you think about people complaining, oh, why don't they teach you how to do your taxes in school? It's like, knowing dinosaurs is such a critical piece of being a good father.

• 2:04:11Speaker 00

  Totally.

• 2:04:11Speaker 01

  Like this is what they should be teaching all. I mean, they, they do teach it in lower school, middle school, high school, but it should be in general requirements. No matter, you go to middle school, law school.

• 2:04:22Speaker 00

  Well, I think it's.

• 2:04:23Speaker 01

  I don't care if you go to PhD. I want a couple dinosaur classes.

• 2:04:26Speaker 00

  It's sort of, it's important like for your own like financial health, right?

• 2:04:31Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 2:04:31Speaker 00

  Because dinosaur is obviously emerging asset class.

• 2:04:33Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 2:04:34Speaker 00

  I think, uh, a lot of people.

• 2:04:35Speaker 01

  Yeah. You don't want to get taken to the cleaners buying a T-Rex for 60 million when it's trading at 47. You just lose $13 million overnight if you don't know this stuff.

• 2:04:43Speaker 00

  I'm surprised. Has anyone fractionalized one of these big guys?

• 2:04:47Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 2:04:47Speaker 00

  Yeah?

• 2:04:48Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah. In the comments to this post, there's someone boasting about a fractionalized dinosaur that they're trading. Uh, you can gamble on them. Uh, Sotheby's just sold Jody, a nano tyrannus, a smallish friend of the T-Rex for $47 million. The high estimate was $9 million. It went for five times what they were predicting. Incredible.

• 2:05:09Speaker 00

  Somebody actually sent this to me over the weekend.

• 2:05:13Speaker 01

  Independently.

• 2:05:13Speaker 00

  And I was looking at it being like, that feels low.

• 2:05:16Speaker 01

  Nine?

• 2:05:16Speaker 00

  For something that.

• 2:05:17Speaker 01

  At nine, it felt low to you. Or at 47?

• 2:05:20Speaker 00

  Yeah, just because whenever I hear about anything, like any, any apex predator dinosaur, it's always like, you know.

• 2:05:26Speaker 01

  I mean, I think, I, I think we agree. It's a steal at 47 million. They were giving it away at nine, but, uh, you know, I, the, the, they're, they're leaving room for price appreciation for the next buyer. So the buyer that bought this at 47, they're looking to get out of it in the nine figures, right?

• 2:05:43Speaker 00

  Yeah. I mean, they may have already sold it.

• 2:05:44Speaker 01

  They might have, they might have. So, uh, Tyler, you have something on the?

• 2:05:48Gavin Baker?

  Yeah. I mean, this one is like a bit smaller nano tyrannus. So this is only like 20 feet long.

• 2:05:52Speaker 01

  But.

• 2:05:52Gavin Baker?

  If you think about Gus, if you remember in July, that was the, that, that was 50.

• 2:05:56Speaker 01

  Ken Griffin picked that one up?

• 2:05:58Gavin Baker?

  No, that was a mystery buyer. You're thinking of Apex.

• 2:06:00Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 2:06:00Gavin Baker?

  That was 2024.

• 2:06:02Speaker 01

  24 million. Okay. So.

• 2:06:04Gavin Baker?

  No, 2024. It was 44 million.

• 2:06:05Speaker 01

  44 million for a 24 foot dinosaur?

• 2:06:08Gavin Baker?

  No, no, no. That was in 2024.

• 2:06:09Speaker 01

  Okay. In 2024.

• 2:06:11Gavin Baker?

  Yeah.

• 2:06:11Speaker 01

  So Rob Petrozo has a breakdown of why this particular dinosaur, despite being the nano tyrannus, sold for $47 million. He says it's because the low estimate was very inviting. It got a lot of butts in seats at the auction. A lot of people are like, oh, I'm going to pick up, I'm going to pick this guy up for nine. This is the steal of the century. They sit down, they get excited, they can't stop bidding. Next thing you know, they're looking at a $47, $47 million bill from Sotheby's and they were going home with that dinosaur. Uh, second, this is interesting because he says, it's the perfect size at 20 feet. And I love that he has opinions about the right size of,

• 2:06:52Speaker 01

  of Tyrannosaurus Rex skeletons or nano tyrannus skeletons because, uh.

• 2:06:57Speaker 00

  Clearly is a replacement for the statue in the entryway of a dramatic, you know,

• 2:07:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:07:05Speaker 00

  dramatic entryway of a, of a, of a.

• 2:07:07Speaker 01

  Yes. So even, even in a modern mansion, going brontosaurus, 60 feet tall, that's, that's not dual.

• 2:07:14Speaker 00

  Yeah. You don't want to have a, you, you need to use the like, um.

• 2:07:18Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:07:18Speaker 00

  You don't want to have to pop it out the top.

• 2:07:20Speaker 01

  Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Uh, you like Architectural Digest is not calling you if you're, if you're, if your brontosaurus is scraping the ceiling, right?

• 2:07:28Speaker 00

  No, I'm saying, I'm saying some people probably have to cut a hole.

• 2:07:31Speaker 01

  Oh, cut, cut a hole in the dome. Yeah.

• 2:07:33Speaker 00

  Neck and head actually.

• 2:07:35Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:07:35Speaker 00

  Go above the house.

• 2:07:36Speaker 01

  But that might, that might ruin the roof lines. You might wind up on Zillow Gone Wild for that.

• 2:07:41Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 2:07:41Speaker 01

  You might be sort of in McMansion territory if you, if you do that. It's a nightmare. So this is the perfect size of 20 feet. Uh, and this is going in my opinion, Rob says. This is, this is a home dino.

• 2:07:53Speaker 00

  I think in LA, I think in LA, the code is like, you can only have like 18 foot ceilings now.

• 2:07:59Speaker 01

  And that's because of dinosaur collection?

• 2:08:01Speaker 00

  Well.

• 2:08:02Speaker 01

  They, they want to curb it?

• 2:08:03Speaker 00

  Yeah, they want to curb.

• 2:08:03Speaker 01

  They want to curb it.

• 2:08:04Speaker 00

  Because it's a takeoff.

• 2:08:05Speaker 01

  Because less buyers, that'll drive up the price. So whoever wrote that law probably has extreme exposure to the dinosaur market, right? So they wanted to drive up the price. How can they drive up the price? Pass a law that makes it hard to keep 20 foot din, uh, dinosaurs in your home. There's less buyers, less supply, more demand.

• 2:08:24Gavin Baker?

  Gus was only 12 and a half feet tall, so you could fit that in 18 foot house.

• 2:08:27Speaker 01

  Okay. So that's an LA dino right there.

• 2:08:30Gavin Baker?

  Yeah.

• 2:08:30Speaker 01

  You got an LA dino. Uh, we got some breaking news.

• 2:08:34Speaker 00

  Breaking news, breaking news. Uh, the president has hit Truth Social and shared, "When will the Wall Street Journal star, start calling artificial intelligence a very bad and inaccurate name? SI, superintelligence, the name which virtually everyone else is using or soon will be. In short order, we will be ban, officially banning the term AI slash artificial intelligence in all relevant documents and everything else due to its inaccuracy. Thank you."

• 2:09:02Speaker 01

  I might have a collector's edition Wall Street Journal here because this might be the very last Wall Street Journal that ever features the acronym AI. It says, "Meta unveils $95 billion AI plan." And also, "The case for AI Armageddon." And we might not see this in the pages of the Wall Street Journal anytime soon. Uh, I'm still, I'm still a fan of MI. I like machine intelligence. It's not super. It's not artificial. It's just a different thing, different nature of intelligence, really good at math, not so good on the street smart sometimes. But, uh, we'll see, we'll see where it goes. You think, uh, you think he's successful? He does love renaming things. That

• 2:09:44Speaker 01

  seems to be the big, big piece of the legacy. So, uh, we'll see, we'll see if the Wall Street Journal, uh, chooses to switch the editorial guidelines to SI.

• 2:09:54Speaker 00

  I don't, yeah, I don't fully understand the point. I don't, I don't think people are gonna

• 2:10:00Speaker 00

  start loving it because it has a new name.

• 2:10:03Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 2:10:03Speaker 00

  I don't think that's a solution.

• 2:10:05Speaker 01

  Might confuse it. Um, you know, if you take SI and you translate it from Spanish to English, people will think that you're not writing SI, you're writing.

• 2:10:18Speaker 00

  Yes.

• 2:10:21Speaker 01

  Trying to do a button and it's not working.

• 2:10:27Speaker 01

  It's not working.

• 2:10:28Speaker 00

  Oh, brutal. Well, that's a good place to end it.

• 2:10:30Speaker 01

  Oh, well, it's supposed to be yay for C, SI. Anyway, thank you so much for tuning into TBBN. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. I deserve this one today. Also, the production team bears some of the responsibility here, but.

• 2:10:45Speaker 00

  Good luck, you guys.

• 2:10:47Speaker 01

  Have a good one. Goodbye.