2025 Predictions, Clocking Zuck's Wrist, Bullish on the Everything, LA Fires

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Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00John Coogan?

  Welcome to Technology Brothers, the most profitable podcast in the world. Today, we are breaking down a bunch of hot takes and predictions for 2025, getting you ready for this year. It's a new year. We had to cover veil yesterday, but today we're looking forward to the future and we're starting with a great post from friend of the show Molly O'Shea. She says, "Top 25 plus hot takes." There are in fact 33 hot takes for 2025. And this was fun. We participated in this. She asked us for a hot take and we gave one. And she posted the full takes and then she boiled them down.

• 0:34Jordi Hays?

  We should start with ours.

• 0:35John Coogan?

  It's hilarious because ours got boiled down. She clearly like ran these through chat GPT to give like summaries and you'd lose a lot of our humor.

• 0:42Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah. But what matters is ultimately that we're correct and vindicated.

• 0:47John Coogan?

  Yes. So what was ours again?

• 0:48Jordi Hays?

  We're, uh, ours was 31. The equestrian market will boom as exited tech founders and nepo journalists buy horses.

• 0:56John Coogan?

  Yeah, that's.

• 0:57Jordi Hays?

  And, um, and yeah, it's not, uh, the only thing I would say here, it got condensed. It's not just nepo journalists. There's people like Kara Swisher, who make a hundred thousand dollars an episode.

• 1:07John Coogan?

  She's also.

• 1:07Jordi Hays?

  Yes, yes. But I'm just saying she, she can buy her own horses, right?

• 1:12John Coogan?

  Now, now.

• 1:12Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:13John Coogan?

  She doesn't have to go.

• 1:13Jordi Hays?

  She could, she could buy, you know, a pretty world-class stallion, almost every episode.

• 1:18John Coogan?

  Yeah, there's kind of two dynamics going on in like the liquidity markets right now. It's like the IPO window is open. So there's going to be more liquidity for early-stage founders and employees and entrepreneurs who have been working really hard, creating a lot of value.

• 1:30Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 1:31John Coogan?

  Building real.

• 1:31Jordi Hays?

  And the M and A, and the M and A market broadly coming back.

• 1:34John Coogan?

  And then, and then secondarily, as a, as another factor, a lot of trust funds are unlocking now for the journalists. And so there's just going to be a flood of cash coming in.

• 1:44Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:45John Coogan?

  And, and obviously that's going to drive equestrian.

• 1:46Jordi Hays?

  And we'll be participating as well.

• 1:48John Coogan?

  Yep. Yeah, exactly. Uh, so let's go through these. Number one, don't die will become the blueprint for Maha.

• 1:54Jordi Hays?

  Okay. So one thing that's interesting too, is these predictions were made by individuals, not just Molly.

• 2:00John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 2:00Jordi Hays?

  But we don't actually have the context on, on who did it. So that allows us to be, uh, pretty, uh, unconflicted and, and ruthless.

• 2:08John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:09Jordi Hays?

  Uh, so anyways, don't die will become the blueprint for Maha. I'm going to say, uh, hard no on this. I think don't die. Gets a bunch of stuff right, but Maha is so much more about getting the basics right.

• 2:21John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:21Jordi Hays?

  Like let's clean up our water supply. Let's, uh, You know, fix school lunches, you know, these sort of basic things where don't die is this sort of hyper optimization, you know, get your biomarkers checked monthly type thing. And it's kind of like overkill for the average, the average, the average person should exercise daily, eat whole foods, get some good sleep.

• 2:44John Coogan?

  You can kind of think about it like, don't die is like bench pressing two plates. Maha is more about benching three plates.

• 2:49Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 2:49John Coogan?

  And, and it even goes further with like, Brian Johnson's a vegetarian, doesn't eat meat. Maha, obviously consuming a ton of meat, red meat almost every day, multiple, multiple steaks per day. And so there is, there is a decent amount of alignment there. They're both like directionally in the same direction, but.

• 3:07Jordi Hays?

  Do you know that stat, by the way, it's like 10, 10% of guys consume like 80% of the meat in the United States?

• 3:13John Coogan?

  Of course.

• 3:14Jordi Hays?

  And we know that our listeners are firmly in the, in the, in the 10%.

• 3:18John Coogan?

  Yeah, I, I've been on this for, for weeks tweeting about how if you get a wedding invitation and they ask for, you know, chicken or fish, you should be able to say double meat.

• 3:30Jordi Hays?

  Double steak.

• 3:31John Coogan?

  You should be able to say double steak. Yeah, I want double steak.

• 3:34Jordi Hays?

  That was my, that was my, that was for, for a period of my life, I would live on two.

• 3:39John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 3:40Jordi Hays?

  I would get, go into Chipotle, get two bowls, double rice, double beans, double meat every time. And that was like, that was at least one meal for the day.

• 3:49John Coogan?

  Yeah, fantastic. Yeah, everyone has, every, every bro has that story. It's great.

• 3:53Jordi Hays?

  I think Sweet Green could really win over, you know, the, the, our listeners at least.

• 3:58John Coogan?

  They took away all the salad stuff and just.

• 4:00Jordi Hays?

  By making the regular meat like amount, like the, the double for like an, you know, kava or whatever. So if you go into Sweet Green and you get double meat, you're actually getting quadruple.

• 4:11John Coogan?

  Yeah. Yeah. There, there needs to be like an arms race in the meat category of all these fast casual slot bowl places. Just like, you know, all the AI firms are benchmarking, oh, who's doing best on, you know, MMLU. I want to know, okay, which fast casual restaurant is the most protein per dollar?

• 4:29Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 4:30John Coogan?

  And pushing it extreme. I want the base case to be a hundred grams. I'm trying to do pound per. Uh, one gram per pound of body weight.

• 4:38Jordi Hays?

  Honestly, but why stop there? Why not go to three pounds per?

• 4:41John Coogan?

  You know how you were joking? Oh, yeah.

• 4:42Jordi Hays?

  Three grams.

• 4:43John Coogan?

  One and a half, one and a half grams of protein per pound of body weight.

• 4:46Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 4:47John Coogan?

  For me, that's four hundred grams of protein a day. And I was like, damn, to do that, I would need to drink a gallon of milk a day. Go mad, right?

• 4:54Jordi Hays?

  You should.

• 4:55John Coogan?

  You know how much protein's a gallon of milk?

• 4:58Jordi Hays?

  I actually don't.

• 4:58John Coogan?

  Hundred and twenty grams.

• 4:59Jordi Hays?

  Solid, solid.

• 5:00John Coogan?

  I'd have to drink three gallons of milk. Be great.

• 5:04Jordi Hays?

  Um, we gotta rip through these.

• 5:05John Coogan?

  I will do what I have to.

• 5:06Jordi Hays?

  We got a lot of, we got a lot of predictions, so.

• 5:08John Coogan?

  AI will gain rights, religions, and even sue humans.

• 5:12Jordi Hays?

  And this is, this is what I.

• 5:12John Coogan?

  For twenty twenty five, though, that's a little soon.

• 5:15Jordi Hays?

  I don't, I don't know. Yeah, rights, rights take a while. Uh, but, uh, I, I said this yesterday. I think that, I think that A, AGI will be achieved when, uh, AI agents are striking and forming labor unions, like.

• 5:27John Coogan?

  There's been a little bit of that where people have been like, like, it's like they behave lazily on certain days and people think it's because it's been baked into the, the LLM memory that like Friday is like a chill day.

• 5:39Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 5:39John Coogan?

  And so it acts like a, like an employee on Friday.

• 5:42Jordi Hays?

  And you have to say like, work like it's Monday.

• 5:44John Coogan?

  It's a Monday, yeah. Uh, there will be a Twitter files for government. That's interesting. I think Torrenberg said that, uh.

• 5:53Jordi Hays?

  If we went too deep here, we might get.

• 5:54John Coogan?

  I've never been happy with the declassifications that have gone on. There's been so many times where it's like, oh, this person's gonna blow it wide open. Even the Twitter files, I didn't think were that crazy.

• 6:03Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 6:03John Coogan?

  It was like, oh, really? Like, they, they blocked some accounts? Like, we knew that when it happened. I don't know.

• 6:10Jordi Hays?

  The new, the new X-Files is there, um, you just can't post about the, the guy, Adrian Ditman or whatever.

• 6:17John Coogan?

  Yeah, oh, yeah, yeah.

• 6:17Jordi Hays?

  If you try to post the article, it just says like, error.

• 6:20John Coogan?

  Yeah. Isn't that because it, it doxes him and he's anon? And so Elon's been against doxing. And so I think that that's actually kind of consistent.

• 6:27Jordi Hays?

  Sure, but like.

• 6:27John Coogan?

  It is, it is.

• 6:28Jordi Hays?

  The information's already out there.

• 6:29John Coogan?

  Yeah, it is culturally important. Um, corporations will pay for emotional harvesting to train AI. I don't get it. Luigi Mangione and Sam Bankman Fried will launch a blockchain healthcare protocol from prison. Silly.

• 6:44Jordi Hays?

  Silly.

• 6:44John Coogan?

  I I don't think that they're aligned in any way and it's just a wildly different like. SBF still maintains that like he like, you know, fucked up on accounting and Luigi like murdered someone like I don't think they're as aligned as people think.

• 7:00Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 7:01John Coogan?

  Privacy will become a luxury with offline life becoming a status symbol. Wrong. Obviously you want to be extremely online.

• 7:07Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I mean, the second, the second part is true, but that's also been true forever. But the, the classic thing, if you're making, if you're VC making predictions, just say what was true for the last year.

• 7:17John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 7:18Jordi Hays?

  And you sound like.

• 7:19John Coogan?

  Also, it sounds like people who just are bad posters are like, actually, privacy is a luxury.

• 7:26Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, just say you can't.

• 7:26John Coogan?

  I don't want a thousand likes on my banger.

• 7:28Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 7:29John Coogan?

  I, I prefer having a lot to count with five likes.

• 7:31Jordi Hays?

  Carrie, Carrie, Carrie, no interest, our friend, he got it. He had a banger about wearing a nice jacket, got over a thousand likes and then he deleted it for some reason.

• 7:39John Coogan?

  Oh, he did?

• 7:40Jordi Hays?

  He see, he made some posts about, oh, I, I, I never wanted to have an account that was like, you know, it's like, you can't handle the heat.

• 7:46John Coogan?

  Hey.

• 7:47Jordi Hays?

  Stay out of the kitchen.

• 7:48John Coogan?

  You're a menswear account. Sit down. Stop posting about buying out companies and buying rare mines and building software companies.

• 7:54Jordi Hays?

  Start posting about buying, acquiring rare jackets.

• 7:56John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 7:57Jordi Hays?

  Um.

• 7:58John Coogan?

  There's a hu- there's a huge market for the, the conservative menswear guy because the, the current menswear guy Derek is like, he only targets Republicans and he's just clearly very left wing. He's like. More of a political project than like actually.

• 8:12Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah. It's a political project, LARPing is a.

• 8:14John Coogan?

  But no one's done it on the other side. Just be like, here's Bill Clinton and it doesn't match on his coat bag.

• 8:19Jordi Hays?

  I feel like people make fun of like Fetterman or whatever for wearing his basketball shorts.

• 8:23John Coogan?

  A little bit, but there's no one who's like, that's their shtick.

• 8:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 8:26John Coogan?

  Right? Uh, big opportunity.

• 8:28Jordi Hays?

  Seven, fertility rates will drop globally, prompting governments to fund reproduction startups. So. Uh, at the rate that we're having children, I think we're going to be able to keep, uh, rates up.

• 8:38John Coogan?

  I don't buy the governments funding reproduction startups. Drop the startups. There are other ways for governments to fund reproduction. And it's just like cha- increase child type.

• 8:47Jordi Hays?

  Cool incentives.

• 8:48John Coogan?

  It's just the child tax credit.

• 8:50Jordi Hays?

  Like the, the tax credit's crazy.

• 8:51John Coogan?

  You don't want the government funding startups. We learn this from Solyndra. Like they fuck it up.

• 8:55Jordi Hays?

  Well, I, I don't, I don't remember what the actual tax credit is that you get for hiring like staff to help raise your kids, but it's something. Like, we spend fifteen times that credit amount on childcare every year, like, just bringing up that makes a lot of sense.

• 9:14John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 9:14Jordi Hays?

  And would be a, you know.

• 9:16John Coogan?

  It would be cool if there was like a Maha-style movement for, for pronatalism fertility in America, like, what laws would be changed? There's a big one about, uh, car seats.

• 9:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 9:25John Coogan?

  Because the car seats are so bulky now, and they're so big.

• 9:28Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 9:28John Coogan?

  And they're required, like, super late, like, you can have, like, a seven-year-old who's, like, a hundred pounds, and you're, like, still in the car seat.

• 9:34Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 9:35John Coogan?

  Like, uh.

• 9:36Jordi Hays?

  So it requires families have bigger cars.

• 9:38John Coogan?

  Station wagon anymore, so you can't even get a station wagon, so they don't make them anymore. So you have to buy the three-row SUV, that's obviously more expensive. Every SUV is, like, ten K more than a car, and so, uh.

• 9:47Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 9:48John Coogan?

  And, and you talk to any parent, it's like, yeah, like, we wore seat belts, but we sat in the backseat, and there were four of us, and we just, like, you know, buckled up, and it was fine.

• 9:57John Coogan?

  AI agents will disrupt traditional search and internet business models, applying real pressure to Google's dominance. Interesting.

• 10:04Jordi Hays?

  This is funny, funny, because I, I don't know who made this prediction, but if you, we're gonna talk about this later. Uh, Fred over at, uh, USV says, "Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to surpass OpenAI, ChatGPT, and consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025."

• 10:19John Coogan?

  It's a classic.

• 10:20Jordi Hays?

  So like, I feel like the real risk here is that Apple just builds in, basically.

• 10:26John Coogan?

  I think it's Apple, I think Google is the one.

• 10:27Jordi Hays?

  No, I know, but eventually, Apple will say, "Hey, this twenty billion dollars a year from Google is nice, but we could just

• 10:34Jordi Hays?

  create a better."

• 10:35John Coogan?

  I disagree with that.

• 10:36Jordi Hays?

  You think they're just gonna keep it going.

• 10:37John Coogan?

  Because, because that, that twenty billion dollars is one hundred percent margin, they don't have to do anything. And they know that, like, anytime they need to manage a new business line, there's risk, and it could go wrong and stuff, and Google's just the best, and so.

• 10:48Jordi Hays?

  And AirPods, which are, like, the biggest hit ever.

• 10:50John Coogan?

  But this is the classic, like, is AI a disruptive technology or sustaining technology, sustaining innovation, disruptive innovation?

• 10:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 10:57John Coogan?

  And, yeah, I mean, uh, there's a poly market now for who will have the best model by the end of Q1 or Q2 or something, and Google is actually in the lead, which is interesting. Uh, they certainly have the scale and the data, and so, uh, it'll be interesting to track that. Um, Starlink will become the dominant internet and cellular provider, a critical layer for AI data stacks. Interesting. I don't know about dominant internet or cellular provider, that's like. That's super fast rollout.

• 11:23Jordi Hays?

  I'd love to hear why this is directly relevant to AI data stacks.

• 11:29John Coogan?

  I don't understand that part either.

• 11:30Jordi Hays?

  But it sounds cool.

• 11:32John Coogan?

  Yeah, I mean, super pro Starlink. I do think that every founder, CEO should buy a Starlink and have it because you cannot afford to not have good internet whenever you're traveling. Like, if you're gonna be in some weird place, the internet's not gonna be good, you're gonna miss calls. And the cost is so low that you can't afford not to have it and you can expense it. The S and P 500 will end below 6,000 down or flat on the year. Huh, bearish. I completely disagree. I think things are gonna rip, but we'll see.

• 12:01Jordi Hays?

  Cool.

• 12:01John Coogan?

  The rise of AI slop will put a premium on handcrafted content, much like this, filmed in a beautiful studio.

• 12:08Jordi Hays?

  Possibly restoring trust in mainstream media. I actually think that's an interesting point. So the rise of AI slop will put a premium on artisanal content, possibly restoring trust in mainstream media. And it's funny because mainstream media, despite everything that they've done, still is the most trustworthy place to get news.

• 12:25John Coogan?

  If you just go for like the facts, like the fact checking at The New Yorker or The Wall Street Journal.

• 12:30Jordi Hays?

  It wasn't until we launched The Truth Zone that we became the most trusted news source in the world.

• 12:36John Coogan?

  And I also think it was very important that we launched this podcast when we did because, like, people joke, oh, it's AI generated or whatever, but like, clearly, we're not actually generating three hours of above Sora level video per day. Like, just the cost, even if we, even if Sora was good enough, which it's not, there would be hours all the time. It would be so expensive and it'd be impossible. And so, like, anyone who knows the technology knows that this podcast is real. And so, this is the last moment where we can prove that this is real and then we can carry that forward forever. So even if it's possible to clone us.

• 13:12Jordi Hays?

  And the other thing is.

• 13:13John Coogan?

  You will know that we, we didn't do it and then we stayed forward. As long as you trust us that we didn't swap ourselves out in the future.

• 13:20Jordi Hays?

  Well, the reason that people can trust us is that we love podcasting so much. We love podcasters high.

• 13:26John Coogan?

  We would never stop.

• 13:26Jordi Hays?

  It's a high that cannot be experienced in any other way. And so, even when the models get good enough to just fully generate the content. Why we would be, we would be not doing our favorite thing in the world.

• 13:39John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 13:39Jordi Hays?

  Right, which is podcasting. So it will never happen.

• 13:42John Coogan?

  Let's go to 12. AGI is a marketing scam. It's overhyped and far from realization.

• 13:47Jordi Hays?

  We talked about this earlier.

• 13:48John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 13:49Jordi Hays?

  Sam Altman runs a company with, not billions, but hundreds of millions of DAUs.

• 13:53John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 13:53Jordi Hays?

  And so he's basically has credit now every once a month to come out and say, you know, in some new dramatic way. AGI is like, we basically figured it out. So we know how to do it now. So I think it's cool.

• 14:06John Coogan?

  I mean, it all goes back to the definition. Like when I use, when I use chat GPT for the first time, I was like, this is AGI.

• 14:12Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 14:13John Coogan?

  Like it's artificial for sure. It's very general. You can ask it about anything and it's definitely intelligent. Now, is it the smartest thing in the whole smarter than every human?

• 14:21Jordi Hays?

  And can you make it make mistakes?

• 14:23John Coogan?

  Yeah, of course. But like it passes the bar for me for just like being artificial, general and intelligent.

• 14:30Jordi Hays?

  Show, show chat GPT to somebody in the nineties and they, they would.

• 14:34John Coogan?

  And so clearly I, I, I think we need to move from like, there's the AGI stuff, which I think we've achieved. And then there's ASI, the super intelligence where it's smarter than everyone. It's reinforcing itself. There's no employees at OpenAI because it's just building its own system or whatever. But then there's this massive gap in the middle. I, I was kind of trying to come up with like a phrase for it, but like, I liked AEI, like artificial economic intelligence and trying to measure it just in terms of profit essentially. And say, you know, right now, OpenAI oh one, chat GPT pro subscription, Sam said they're losing money on it because people are using it so much. But there should be a, there should be a like an evaluation where you go and the prompt is just make money.

• 15:15John Coogan?

  And it goes and finds a job. Maybe that's just on Upwork, doing like little tiny tasks, but it goes in and does that and just makes money. And, and then what is the total value? And at some point, the value of like these AI systems directly producing cash flow will be higher than humans.

• 15:32Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. What's happened to the, the market caps of, of Fiverr and Upwork and these, these?

• 15:39John Coogan?

  I mean, I think that those will still be valuable because they're, they're aggregation platforms around like the type of task. They, they are independent of who's doing the task.

• 15:47Jordi Hays?

  No, I just, I, I just mean more, that's, that's true to some degree, but I'm just saying. So much of the work being done on those platforms is very low hanging fruit for

• 15:58John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 15:59Jordi Hays?

  Models.

• 15:59John Coogan?

  True, true. The question is just like, how does the, how does the model go and find the job?

• 16:04Jordi Hays?

  It's interesting, Fiverr is still

• 16:06John Coogan?

  Trading fine?

• 16:07Jordi Hays?

  Thirty percent over the past.

• 16:11John Coogan?

  Yeah, so I mean, yeah, I, I, I like tracking things more quantitatively than these like qualitative, oh, we move the, we move the, the goalposts every six months for what AGI is. It's like,

• 16:21Jordi Hays?

  I, yeah.

• 16:22John Coogan?

  Like the Turing test was great. Because it was binary and it was very clear that we jumped past that. And then

• 16:27Jordi Hays?

  We need to change, swap the benchmarks to the models getting money, right?

• 16:31John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.

• 16:32Jordi Hays?

  It's like, AI, it's like, how much, yeah.

• 16:34John Coogan?

  How much money are they making?

• 16:35Jordi Hays?

  What's your hustle?

• 16:36John Coogan?

  Exactly. And are they making, are they making one percent as much as humans in terms of total global GDP? Are they making 50%? At a certain point, there's going to be like, okay, they're doing everything, but there aren't humanoids yet. So they aren't doing like the farming and the plumbing or whatever, but they're doing a lot of the white collar work. Uh, and then there'll, and then there'll be a question about like, also just, just literally just tracking how big the models are and how much energy is being expended on AI. That's a, that's a much more valuable thing to track because everyone's saying, if we scale up another two orders of magnitude, it's AGI, it's ASI, whatever. But the question is just like, how are we tracking against that? Because if we go through like a Moore's Law flatline for a couple of years, like, we're going to feel that one way or another.

• 17:15Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. And so just track the energy that's going in. Clearly, intelligence is a spectrum.

• 17:20John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 17:20Jordi Hays?

  We're already on that.

• 17:21John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 17:21Jordi Hays?

  We're already on it. And yet it's still beneficial for people that are having to raise billions of dollars to, to constantly say, we're on the precipice of this great moment. You need to get in before AGI is achieved.

• 17:35John Coogan?

  Like a marketing scam, but it's certainly a buzzword.

• 17:37Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 17:38John Coogan?

  Right? In the sense that like, the cloud was a buzzword, but it wasn't a scam.

• 17:41Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 17:42John Coogan?

  Right? What's the next one? Climate startups will rebrand as energy dependent, energy independence to appeal to conservatives.

• 17:50John Coogan?

  Yeah, that makes sense. If you're doing solar or wind or nuclear, like, uh, uh, Isaiah Taylor's going down to Mar-a-Lago in a few days to do a conference on nuclear. And a lot of the nuclear companies that, I know a lot of these founders, they don't care about politics at all, really.

• 18:04Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that's just about, and energy itself doesn't really care about politics either.

• 18:08John Coogan?

  No, of course not.

• 18:09Jordi Hays?

  Except when there's subsidies involved.

• 18:10John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 18:10Jordi Hays?

  But in general, energy's energy.

• 18:12John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 18:12Jordi Hays?

  We need a lot of it.

• 18:13John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 18:14Jordi Hays?

  We should make more of it.

• 18:15John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 18:15Jordi Hays?

  And I don't think it should be.

• 18:17John Coogan?

  Yeah, I talked to a guy who was consulting for like the oil and gas industry.

• 18:20Jordi Hays?

  If you take your climate tech company, rebrand around energy independence, you might be able to get some cash from Donald Trump Jr.

• 18:27John Coogan?

  There you go.

• 18:27Jordi Hays?

  Seventeen eighty-nine capital. He's big into the anti, uh.

• 18:32John Coogan?

  Let's go fourteen. AI wearables will flop, but Meta will dominate AI hardware. Those seem at odds. What is an AI wearable if not a headset?

• 18:42Jordi Hays?

  If not AI hardware. Um, yeah, I, I, I, I think Lindy Man said something recently where he was like, we need to get the phone built into glasses. Because the aesthetics of a bunch of people at a cafe sitting around with your neck cranked over, just, just, you know, using your device are terrible. So I don't, I think AI wearables will flop. And I also, I just, I think it's, I think it's too early to say that. I think you have smart people like Avi who are, who have so much.

• 19:13John Coogan?

  I was thinking VR wearables.

• 19:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 19:15John Coogan?

  AI wearables like.

• 19:16Jordi Hays?

  So this is like friend.com.

• 19:18John Coogan?

  If you may. Well, a lot of them are, have already kind of flopped.

• 19:20Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 19:21John Coogan?

  Uh, there was that, there was the humane pin that was really rough. And then, uh, what was that other one that was a little?

• 19:27Jordi Hays?

  Rabbit.

• 19:27John Coogan?

  Rabbit.

• 19:28Jordi Hays?

  Rabbit.

• 19:28John Coogan?

  That one seemed cool for kids.

• 19:30Jordi Hays?

  So humane also pivoted. I don't know if you saw this. They basically are making this OS for your devices now, and it seems.

• 19:37John Coogan?

  I really thought Rabbit should just focus on, on a cool device for kids that gets them off the screen.

• 19:43Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 19:43John Coogan?

  Go take a picture of a flower. Tells you what the flower is.

• 19:46Jordi Hays?

  Or it's basically redesigned it as a radio for parents and their kids.

• 19:49John Coogan?

  Exactly. Like, we, we've talked about the Yodo, how that's a really cool device. Like, there's a bunch of things that you can do there.

• 19:54Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I always felt that the, a lot of the wearable companies would have done better going for the kids market because kids don't have phones already. Parents want them off devices. So if you give them an audio native device, it makes sense.

• 20:07John Coogan?

  And so Meta will dominate AI hardware. The Ray-Bans are decent. It is cool to be able to wear the glasses and listen to a podcast and then immediately say, hey Meta, you know, what year was this building made that I'm looking at? Like, that is cool. I like having an LLM just that I can talk to whenever. That's nice. But Apple still has like so many modes there with the AirPods and the watch and the phone. Like, I think that they're, I don't know, dominate is the right word. Let's move on to 15. The taste Renaissance will replace content creation with artists. I like that. We think of ourselves as artists.

• 20:40Jordi Hays?

  We think of ourselves as capitalists.

• 20:42John Coogan?

  Capitalists.

• 20:44Jordi Hays?

  Capitalist first artists. A good artist is, the best artists are highly commercial. So.

• 20:50John Coogan?

  Andy Warhol said that.

• 20:52Jordi Hays?

  But I do, so I think, like, I would just take this in a different direction where I think that it's going to become increasingly hard to compete as part-time content creators. When there's any, when there's billions of machines creating AI slop constantly. So.

• 21:08John Coogan?

  Yeah, you look at David Senna. It's like, he just focuses on the podcast 24/7 and it's impossible to compete with him.

• 21:16John Coogan?

  Independent media will overtake mainstream media, number 16. That's the flip side of the other, restoring trust in MSM. I agree.

• 21:25Jordi Hays?

  I just feel like there's still so much value in the stamps of, of CNBC said this is true. CNN said this is true. There's always going to be.

• 21:35John Coogan?

  I guess the question is like, is like, if you're adding up the market cap of News Corp, New York Times, CNN, all these different, everyone that owns Wall Street Journal and all that, you add up all those market caps, and then you add up how much cash flow is Rogan making, Huberman, and you apply some sort of EBITDA multiple to that. Or, yeah, this independent media is probably still smaller and it's probably not going to overtake it in 2025.

• 22:01Jordi Hays?

  That's an interesting.

• 22:02John Coogan?

  Do we include Spotify? Do we include YouTube? Because YouTube is definitely bigger than the mainstream media if you include that in the market cap.

• 22:09Jordi Hays?

  I do think independent media will eclipse mainstream media eventually from a revenue standpoint.

• 22:16John Coogan?

  I think it already has, if you include YouTube.

• 22:18Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 22:19John Coogan?

  Um, and, and Spotify.

• 22:21Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 22:21John Coogan?

  But then the question is, what, you know, like?

• 22:26Jordi Hays?

  But the only thing this, this to me is kind of a, is kind of a bullshit prediction because it's calling out a bunch of things that have been happening for decades plus.

• 22:34John Coogan?

  Yep, yep, yep.

• 22:34Jordi Hays?

  Um, so not, not the most interesting.

• 22:37John Coogan?

  Number seventeen, empire building will be valued over get rich quick schemes. Little bit of a shift in the trend there. A big question about the Zoomers.

• 22:46Jordi Hays?

  But I, I, I feel like every, it's always been cool to build empires. Get rich quick schemes have always been appealing.

• 22:54John Coogan?

  It's also very cool to get rich quick.

• 22:55Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 22:56John Coogan?

  Isn't that what you did?

• 22:58Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah. I did, I did get rich quick.

• 23:01John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 23:01Jordi Hays?

  Um, but, um.

• 23:03John Coogan?

  And you, I mean, you would describe your business as a scheme in some ways.

• 23:06Jordi Hays?

  Every business is a scheme.

• 23:07John Coogan?

  I think so.

• 23:08Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 23:09John Coogan?

  It's a conspiracy theory.

• 23:10Jordi Hays?

  Every business is a conspiracy. It's just a small group of people trying to get money together.

• 23:14John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 23:15Jordi Hays?

  Now the AIs are trying to figure out how to get money.

• 23:17John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 23:17Jordi Hays?

  Humans have an edge there for now. For the next year, humans have an edge on getting money.

• 23:22John Coogan?

  Yeah. Yeah, I mean, if you could become a millionaire before forty, I think you got rich pretty quick. So you just don't want to get rich slowly. That's not the way to do it.

• 23:29Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, do not, do not.

• 23:31John Coogan?

  Eighteen, AI-related litigation and fraud will accelerate. Uh, yeah, we've talked about this. A little bit of interesting, like, uh, game theoretic dynamic where it's like, oh, it's gonna be so easy to sue people with AI. There's gonna be a million lawsuits. Like, well, it's also gonna be very easy to defend yourself with AI. And so the AIs will battle it out and maybe it'll net out and there's just like.

• 23:51Jordi Hays?

  The courts are gonna get even more and more and more backed up. Like, there are already,

• 23:55John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 23:55Jordi Hays?

  there's already year-long delays and cycles.

• 23:58John Coogan?

  I mean, the adoption level of some of the tech is insane. I mean, they still don't use cameras.

• 24:06John Coogan?

  They use a person that draws the stuff.

• 24:08Jordi Hays?

  The bull case for AI in the legal industry is it's so good at text.

• 24:11John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 24:12Jordi Hays?

  And the legal industry is just completely dependent on documents and texts.

• 24:15John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 24:15Jordi Hays?

  And so that adoption could be faster.

• 24:18John Coogan?

  It's been one hundred years since we invented the camera and they're still doing courtroom sketch artists. And, and then they also have stenographers that write everything down instead of just recording it and transcribing it.

• 24:28Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, it's crazy.

• 24:29John Coogan?

  Uh, yeah, rough. Um, a lot of this stuff is just so entrenched in like a bunch of like laws and stuff. And then there's jobs and politicians and people don't want to change. It's just rough. Uh, number 19, state governments will increase sales tax audits to address deficits. What a wonky prediction, just like.

• 24:49Jordi Hays?

  I, I, I wish we knew who did this. I mean, it's probably true just because that's true in general with governments are trying to, you know, constantly squeeze.

• 24:58John Coogan?

  I don't know. I mean, I, I, I don't know how big sales tax is in some kind, in some states, but I know that like if everyone says like, oh, go to Florida, no income tax, but uh,

• 25:07Jordi Hays?

  The property taxes.

• 25:08John Coogan?

  Alaska actually has the lowest state tax burden of any, of any state because they have, they might even have an income tax, it's very, very low, but then they also have really low fees and really low sales taxes and stuff. So something like Florida or Texas might have no income tax, but they might have higher business taxes or higher licenses, or they might make money in different ways. Cause you can't run a state with no money. Like it just doesn't make sense. Um, number 20, tech consolidation will accelerate with bundling cycles dominating. Yeah. I mean, uh,

• 25:41Jordi Hays?

  I don't know. I feel, I feel like the,

• 25:44John Coogan?

  How much more consolidated could you get?

• 25:45Jordi Hays?

  The unbundling, like it's, it's, you can't say that tech is just bundling or tech is just unbundling because it's such a ridiculously massive industry at this point. It's arguably not even one standalone industry. It's hundreds of industries combined. So I don't know. I, I think that we're going to get into this later, but um, Gokul Rajaram talks about how really there's going to be this battle between new ad genetic, B2B software and traditional SaaS and these sort of like dashboard model.

• 26:17John Coogan?

  Yeah. And how much of a dance can they do? Like even, even Salesforce is changing their business model to like performance outcomes instead of seat licensing.

• 26:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 26:26John Coogan?

  And so if, if a company is big and old as Salesforce is leading that charge and like, hey, it's okay to change your business model. I could see a lot of like the, the, the mid-tier SaaS companies that are charging seats say, hey, yeah, we should do, do the switch. Like if Salesforce could do it, we could definitely figure it out.

• 26:42Jordi Hays?

  21.

• 26:43John Coogan?

  And video will peak.

• 26:44Jordi Hays?

  I don't like this. I don't like when people are bearish.

• 26:46John Coogan?

  I mean, look, also,

• 26:48Jordi Hays?

  Get a real hobby.

• 26:48John Coogan?

  Look at the breakdown in, in, uh, by Dylan. Tell and semi analysis of AMD.

• 26:53Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 26:54John Coogan?

  I mean, it was like a fucking nuclear bomb going off on that company. It was so rough. Just like their culture is broken. They can't do anything. George Hots has been talking about this for a long time. Like, like you literally cannot train a model on their chips because it's so buggy and their software is so bad. And it's like on a performance base. AMD is in some ways better than Nvidia, just on like cost per flop. But like you just cannot actually run the training. And so it's like, who's their competition? Who's going to do it? And yeah, there's a couple of startups that are doing custom chips and stuff and there's TPUs, but like everyone just needs Nvidia. So they're just going to keep buying it for a long time. And I don't know, my, my, uh, my shoe shine boy has not, uh, has not told me to buy Nvidia yet. So that's the top signal usually.

• 27:39John Coogan?

  Or the taxi driver, what, what's that phrase from the, from the Great Depression? It was like, I think it was shoe shine boy or something.

• 27:45Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 27:45John Coogan?

  It was like when, when, when your butler's telling, giving you the stock tip, then you know it's top.

• 27:49Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 27:49John Coogan?

  Sell everything. Uh, the IPO market will see 12 plus high quality debuts.

• 27:53Jordi Hays?

  Let's go. We love to see the window open.

• 27:55John Coogan?

  Yep. Brain health will be prioritized with the creation of aura for the brain. Yeah, there are some pretty cool people working on brain stuff. Obviously Neuralink's like the big one, but that's more for.

• 28:05Jordi Hays?

  What's that dreaming? The dreaming, Lucy dreaming one?

• 28:08John Coogan?

  And then the, the, the former Neuralink guy has left and started a new company. And then also Fred Ursom started one with Jeremy Barrenholz, who was at Neuralink. And that I think that's non-invasive and all the, I mean, just seeing what's possible with Neuralink opens up so many new.

• 28:27Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 28:28John Coogan?

  Like opportunities.

• 28:29Jordi Hays?

  I mean, imagine a device that gave you podcasters high throughout the entire day.

• 28:33John Coogan?

  Yeah, you could just sit in a, you could just sit in a tank of fluid and live in the matrix. It'd be great. Um, AI innovation will shift from scaling compute to algorithmic advancements. Yep, that makes sense. That's kind of happening. We're seeing that with like the oh, one, oh, three models. Like there's clearly so much lagging.

• 28:48Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but at the same, at the same time, Microsoft is saying we're going to spend $80 billion on new data centers.

• 28:55John Coogan?

  Yes, but it's unclear if that's inference or, or training. I don't think that they specified that.

• 29:00Jordi Hays?

  That's yeah, it's clearly both.

• 29:01John Coogan?

  I yeah, I I think it's clearly both, but.

• 29:04Jordi Hays?

  But they're clearly scaling. They're clearly.

• 29:06John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 29:06Jordi Hays?

  Planning on.

• 29:07John Coogan?

  I think everyone is scaling like everyone is everyone is thinking about what's the next order of magnitude larger. Uh, pre-training run or whatever.

• 29:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 29:14John Coogan?

  Uh, and there's a bit of a data wall, but they'll figure that out. And once they get all that together, uh, there should be another level of of value just from getting GPT five model under the hood of something that's already been uh, reinforcement learned to death like the oh, one oh, three models. Twenty five, real world AI will impact Fortune 500 companies showing up in their financial performance. That's kind of vague. I mean, certainly.

• 29:41Jordi Hays?

  I don't know if this is saying it's good or bad, but I think.

• 29:43John Coogan?

  It's certainly affecting the stocks because everyone needs to call McKinsey and get something.

• 29:47Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. And you see companies like Klarna. Klarna is the CEO has been very smart on getting out and just saying, we haven't hired anybody in a year type of thing. Um, I don't know if that's true.

• 29:59John Coogan?

  He should take it further. He should be like, I don't even go to work anymore.

• 30:02Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. I am not actually doing this interview right now.

• 30:06John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 30:06Jordi Hays?

  This is I'm fully generated.

• 30:09John Coogan?

  I'm retired.

• 30:09Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 30:10John Coogan?

  I'm I'm post economic, post AGI.

• 30:12Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 30:12John Coogan?

  In my, uh, you know, uh, what is it?

• 30:18John Coogan?

  Fully automated luxury communist era.

• 30:20Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 30:21John Coogan?

  I love that.

• 30:23John Coogan?

  Data center sending will shift significantly towards inference. That's what we were talking about with Microsoft. We don't know.

• 30:27Jordi Hays?

  There you go.

• 30:28John Coogan?

  We'll see. Uh, tier one GPs from firms like Sequoia will leave to start their own funds. Maybe, maybe not. It's unclear. There's a lot of people that made a ton of money in the last run and they might just retire.

• 30:43Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 30:44John Coogan?

  And so I I I agree with the departures.

• 30:46Jordi Hays?

  Or you do the smart thing, Sean McGuire, you just make take over the fund.

• 30:50John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 30:51Jordi Hays?

  Just become the fund.

• 30:52John Coogan?

  Yes. And then pivot the entire brand towards.

• 30:56John Coogan?

  Being dark MAGA.

• 30:57Jordi Hays?

  Dark MAGA, yeah.

• 30:59John Coogan?

  It's great.

• 31:01Jordi Hays?

  Big move.

• 31:01John Coogan?

  The creation of Doge will bring back civic duty with tech talent competing with government jobs.

• 31:05Jordi Hays?

  See, this is my favorite kind of prediction. You just say the thing that's been happening for the last three months. Everybody's like, wow, what an insight. But it's cool. It's cool. It's a cool trend. I'm, I'm, I'm bullish.

• 31:18John Coogan?

  It is definitely happening. A lot of tech people are going in and considering government jobs that wouldn't have in the past. But it is rough. I mean, you need to be post economic because I think like.

• 31:27Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 31:28John Coogan?

  Like a lot of these jobs are 150.

• 31:29Jordi Hays?

  Or, or there is a thing where if, when you go into certain positions in the government, you have to sell all of your assets. So the private markets are often, you know, a lot of insider trading happening, happening. If you're sitting, you know, if somebody's sitting on a $10 million position of something they don't actually think is worth nearly that much. And they can go into the government, sell their, you know, bags and then, you know, it's a good way to get out.

• 31:54John Coogan?

  Yeah. AI will accelerate drug development timelines by three to five years. I buy this just on the paperwork side. I mean, honestly, when we, when we were released, when we were dealing with the FDA and submitting PMTAs for these different nicotine pouch products, every single one of these, different color, different application, another 100,000 pages of text. We actually got to a point where I was talking to our software developer about like using a Python API to manipulate Word documents.

• 32:22Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 32:22John Coogan?

  To see if there's a way to go and basically do a very advanced like find and replace. Well, LLMs do that basically perfectly. And so there's, there's a million ways.

• 32:32Jordi Hays?

  The paperwork side.

• 32:33John Coogan?

  Just the paperwork side is huge on reducing the cost of this higher throughput. And then also ideally on the FDA side, they're using these tools too, to comb through and find obvious errors and act as a first pass. Now, I imagine there's a bunch of laws that tell them that they can't do that and it needs to be human and stuff. And it's going to be very difficult, but, um, and then there's also all like the actual AI drug development stuff where it's like, oh, let's pull all the data from everything. Modeling and prediction and stuff. I mean, they solved the protein folding problem with, uh, with AI. What was interesting about the protein folding thing was that when DeepMind solved that, the biotech stocks didn't move. And so I talked to a buddy of mine who's a biotech investor and I was like, Everyone in tech is freaking out about this. Like they're acting like it's like AGI,

• 33:16John Coogan?

  like the biggest breakthrough ever. And it is really cool because it was like this fundamentally hard problem and DeepMind solved it. But why aren't, why isn't it moving the market? And he was like, well, like, it's not actually that big of a, like, protein folding is something that you can, like, yes, it's awesome to be able to just like click a button on the computer and get the result. But before that, it was like, send it off to a machine that costs 50K and a research like assistant at a PhD program will do it for you. And it's, and it's, it's annoying and it takes time, but it's not actually the real barrier to like innovation in the space.

• 33:54John Coogan?

  Happiness will be seen as the key to health, even over strict wellness routines.

• 33:59Jordi Hays?

  It is funny, AI is making trying to predict the future so much more interesting. Because five years ago, six years ago, 10 years ago, it's like, okay, we're gonna have more mobile apps, have more sass. And now it's becoming harder and harder and harder because we're getting the sense that AI is going to disrupt so much of our lives and the way that we work and how our governments work and all these things. It actually makes these, you know, predictions quite a bit harder, but definitely more interesting.

• 34:30John Coogan?

  Yeah. Software development will become as easy as creating YouTube videos, thanks to AI coding assistance.

• 34:36Jordi Hays?

  Wait, we missed, did we miss 30? Happiness will be seen as...

• 34:39John Coogan?

  No, I just said that.

• 34:40Jordi Hays?

  Okay, so I have got to disagree with this.

• 34:42John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 34:43Jordi Hays?

  Business performance is the key to health, even more so than strict wellness routines. That's where I'd push back.

• 34:50John Coogan?

  I love it.

• 34:51Jordi Hays?

  Because if you have business performance, you'll be happy. But if you don't have business performance, how could you possibly, you know, actually be happy?

• 35:01John Coogan?

  So software development becomes as easy as creating YouTube videos, thanks to AI coding assistance. That's true and happening with Cursor and Devon. We're seeing this. I mean, even like the software developers, like, people in the community are just building tools now for us that previously would be like a 10K contract on Upwork or something. And they're just doing it in like an hour for their free time, for fun. And it's great. Like, we have these ideas and like, they can just be instantiated so quickly. It's amazing. And I do think it will be very cool.

• 35:31Jordi Hays?

  This guy, you know, Trevor from BRAD?

• 35:36John Coogan?

  Oh, no.

• 35:37Jordi Hays?

  He...

• 35:40Jordi Hays?

  So Trevor, I'm, why am I, I don't know, I'm blanking on his last name, but he, he just posted today that he, I tried to put it in the stack, that he just like made a SaaS tool for artists that are managing their like tours, basically, and it's becoming, it's so much easier. It's now, in the same way that 10 years ago was like, oh, I want a website and you just like make a website. Becoming like, oh, I want this app and you just make it.

• 36:04John Coogan?

  I gotta get back into some sort of development stack and like get the tooling ready. Like the hardest part is for me is not actually like, I'm pretty good at like writing the actual code. What sucks is like setting up the environment, figuring out how to deploy it, making sure it stays up. And if there's a cron job, it needs to run every hour and stuff like all these different like dev ops stuff I always get hung up on. Back in like the Heroku era is pretty good and I've seen like Replit and I've, and I've played with like a bunch of these different tools, but I like, I, I want it, I want to be able to just like get with this, but I always need like a couple of days of dedicated time and I can just never find the time. In the last one, Molly O'Shea will become the next Joe Rogan.

• 36:43Jordi Hays?

  Do it, Molly.

• 36:44John Coogan?

  Do it, but you got a podcast, a lot more and you got a podcast for a lot longer. These one hour, Rogan built his business on the three hour podcast.

• 36:52Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 36:53John Coogan?

  And he started with people that were comedians. You, you go back and you look at the very first Rogan episodes and they're literally everyone's famous. It was insane what a tastemaker that guy was. It was like Bill Burr.

• 37:04Jordi Hays?

  Oh, they weren't necessarily, were they not famous at that time?

• 37:07John Coogan?

  They were like okay comedians back then because it was 20 years ago or something. But it's, it's literally every single person from the first like season or first year of Rogan has been on Rogan the last year.

• 37:18Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 37:18John Coogan?

  Because he put, he picked everyone correctly. And, and, and that's what you should ask when you're doing an interview show is do I really think that the person I'm doing this interview with, I will have them on in 20 years because I'm that confident that they'll be successful.

• 37:32Jordi Hays?

  Joe Rogan should have been a head, head fund manager, venture capitalist.

• 37:35John Coogan?

  Okay, great. Let's move on to Ramin Seth.

• 37:38Jordi Hays?

  Ramin.

• 37:39John Coogan?

  Met this guy in New York with Pomp, great dude.

• 37:42Jordi Hays?

  He also hosts a very cool event down in Newport, intersection of, of pro sports and venture.

• 37:49John Coogan?

  He did, he did some sort of like, I think he made his money rolling up staffing agencies and built a staffing agency and then I think sold it to private equity.

• 37:59Jordi Hays?

  We love private equity.

• 38:00John Coogan?

  Really, really interesting guy. Uh, 25, he gives 25 predictions for 2025. Uh, Bitcoin hits 200K. Love it. A little bit lower than our price target, which I believe was 25 million, but um, but we'd love to see 200K.

• 38:15Jordi Hays?

  It's a good start.

• 38:16John Coogan?

  Yeah. One Bitcoin really should get you out of the Nautilus territory and into the uh,

• 38:22Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 38:23John Coogan?

  The, the grand complication territory.

• 38:25Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 38:25John Coogan?

  Uh, at retail.

• 38:28John Coogan?

  S and P 500 sees another 15% gain. I agree. AI deflates SaaS. Uh, we're still like iffy on that because maybe the SaaS companies pivot, but like in general.

• 38:39Jordi Hays?

  Well, yeah, and the SaaS companies have one thing that upstarts don't, which is distribution.

• 38:43John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 38:43Jordi Hays?

  Big customer bases. A lot of them can introduce new products. So we'll see.

• 38:48John Coogan?

  Ozempic GLP ones will cross 100 billion in annual sales. I don't know what the annual sales are right now, but that sounds right. I was thinking about what is holding people back from being on GLP ones. There was this kidney risk for a while. People thought that it gave you thyroid cancer.

• 39:02Jordi Hays?

  Shrinks your heart a little bit.

• 39:03John Coogan?

  Is that true?

• 39:05Jordi Hays?

  I've seen.

• 39:05John Coogan?

  You gotta put the tinfoil hat on for that or?

• 39:07Jordi Hays?

  No, no, no. The studies, studies came out.

• 39:09John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 39:10Jordi Hays?

  Showing that it, it might shrink your heart a little bit.

• 39:12John Coogan?

  Well, that could be good because you could be more ruthless. You don't want to have a big heart.

• 39:13Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, you don't want to have too big of a heart in this world.

• 39:16John Coogan?

  If you have to fire a lot of people.

• 39:17Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 39:19John Coogan?

  Venture capital reverts to a cottage industry. Interesting.

• 39:23Jordi Hays?

  It's interesting. I, I feel like, I feel like.

• 39:24John Coogan?

  Not gonna happen in 2025 with the fund sizes we're seeing.

• 39:26Jordi Hays?

  I feel like I, I, we probably agree on this if we were to have a longer conversation. I think it's clear that if you want to be an independent GP, you gotta be really fucking good.

• 39:37John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 39:37Jordi Hays?

  But it's also never been more commercialized.

• 39:40John Coogan?

  It's also, yeah, it's also like a definition issue because well, like if I think about venture capital in the sense of like a person with $50 million fund who's going to write $51 million seed checks, lead them and, and really be the first money in at these very early stage companies, that feels like venture capital. That feels like a cottage industry. You can go and raise a $50 billion fund and say, I'm only talking to companies that have a market cap that's higher than 10 billion. And I'm just gonna do SpaceX secondary, Stripe secondary, Android secondary. And, and, and that can also be venture capital. When it's like clearly a different thing, you're like, you're just like, I mean, we saw in the dot com.

• 40:20Jordi Hays?

  It's private market investing.

• 40:21John Coogan?

  Yeah, it's private market investing and, and during the dot com boom, like these companies were like overvalued. It was like they IPO to $500 million. It's like, that's a series A now.

• 40:31Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 40:33John Coogan?

  Uh, valuation dispersion widens. Okay. Seems reasonable. Um, I mean, there's still a washout from the post Zerp era. Uh, seven, US IPO market reopens, M and A accelerates. We talked about this. A new top tier college is born. How would that happen? Would that just be like an escalation of?

• 40:52Jordi Hays?

  That'd be like a new UT, University of Austin.

• 40:54John Coogan?

  Oh, oh, you, you think he's like, he's talking about a brand new one or just like it, it, it all of a sudden.

• 41:00Jordi Hays?

  Born to me.

• 41:01John Coogan?

  Cause it's possible it's like, all of a sudden like Cal has a couple of good years and it's like Cal's in the Ivies now.

• 41:08Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 41:08John Coogan?

  Um, I mean, Stanford certainly did that where Stanford's like, you know, above Brown clearly. And it's like MIT, Harvard, Yale, Stanford, basically. Um, and a lot of the, a lot of the Ivies have kind of fallen off. Um, an AI teacher teaches millions of students at zero cost. I don't know how like concentrated the AI teaching will be. Cause I mean, yes, you could say like chat GPT will teach a million people for sure. That's already happening, but then you could also say that there's going to be like someone that uses AI to create a YouTube channel. That's like introduction to economics and that gets a million views. But then there's going to be someone else that does it for physics and someone else that does it for chemistry.

• 41:48John Coogan?

  And it's like, is that all one AI? There's going to be a constant question about like, what constitutes a single instance of an AI?

• 41:55Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 41:55John Coogan?

  Uh, but, but I do agree AI, it will be incre- I mean, it's teaching me so much. I'm constantly looking stuff up. India has a blockbuster startup IPO. Don't care. Uh, outcome based software pricing models, just because it's international. Uh, outcome based software pricing models go mainstream. We talked about this with the.

• 42:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Salesforce.

• 42:15John Coogan?

  With Salesforce. Uh, independent media overtakes legacy media. This is the exact same phrasing as the other one.

• 42:21Jordi Hays?

  We're doing it here. We're doing it here, folks.

• 42:23John Coogan?

  Private credit bubble pops.

• 42:25Jordi Hays?

  We will LBO, uh, Bloomberg.

• 42:29John Coogan?

  Uh, private credit bubble pops.

• 42:32Jordi Hays?

  Hopefully not.

• 42:33John Coogan?

  Know that much about private credit, honestly.

• 42:35Jordi Hays?

  Hopefully not. I'd hate to see bubbles pop.

• 42:37John Coogan?

  Yeah. Mag seven continues to outperform the rest of the market. True. Longevity products go mainstream. Brian Johnson's kind of doing that. Um, SMB M and A arbitrage goes away. True. Your Harvey drag.

• 42:52Jordi Hays?

  I think that.

• 42:53John Coogan?

  It's going to be hard to start a plumbing company.

• 42:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that we're going to look back and, and laugh that it became high status. Making the search fund, repackaging SMB ownership and SMBs are awesome. Uh, in so many ways, but there's a lot of them that are better built from the ground up than, you know, buying a company with 700K in earnings.

• 43:18John Coogan?

  Digital detoxes go mainstream.

• 43:21Jordi Hays?

  Hopefully not in this podcast. It'd be devastating to the show if we, if we did a digital detox.

• 43:27John Coogan?

  I mean, hopefully the iPad thing, the iPad kid thing.

• 43:31Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 43:31John Coogan?

  Goes more mainstream.

• 43:33Jordi Hays?

  I definitely, it's, it's, there's a very firm divide among moms and parents, from what I'm seeing between the iPad, the pro iPad and because when, when anti iPad moms see a kid on glued to an iPad, they literally look at it like the kid is just smoking heaters.

• 43:53John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 43:54Jordi Hays?

  Like that is the reaction of the mom. They're just like, I cannot believe that this kid is just glued to the slot machine, basically just going, um, anyways.

• 44:05John Coogan?

  Uh, inflation moderates to sub 2.5%. I think that's right. Waymo becomes a clear market leader for self-driving.

• 44:12Jordi Hays?

  Probably already.

• 44:13John Coogan?

  Uh, it depends on how you define market leader for self-driving. There's a lot of Teslas on the road. Total value of Teslas with.

• 44:20Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but our Tesla's really self-driving. Every video.

• 44:23John Coogan?

  Three versus level four, whatever, you know, it's like all these levels and stuff. I don't know. I mean, yeah, with, uh, with Cruz out of the game, who else is even trying in full self?

• 44:37Jordi Hays?

  Drag.

• 44:38John Coogan?

  Who?

• 44:39Jordi Hays?

  Uh, Holtz?

• 44:40John Coogan?

  George Hots.

• 44:41Jordi Hays?

  George, sorry.

• 44:41John Coogan?

  George Hots is an aftermarket kid. He is firmly in the level two camp. He is, wants to be, he thinks Tesla will still win. They will be the iPhone. He will be the Android.

• 44:52Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 44:52John Coogan?

  And he thinks Waymo will go away because of the cost structure and the design and stuff like that. Um, but I don't know. I'm a little bit more bullish than him on Waymo. It seems to be working really well. And when I was in one, it was a great experience. It wasn't slow.

• 45:05Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 45:05John Coogan?

  And it seems good. Um, patience reemerges as a virtue. That's funny. Uh, hubris decreases, humility increases. You know, I, I don't know about hubris. Like I've been thinking about getting into it.

• 45:22Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 45:22John Coogan?

  Cause I just think I'm built different and maybe, maybe it doesn't work for other people, but maybe for me.

• 45:28Jordi Hays?

  I think it, I think it, it, it, it wears nicely on you.

• 45:31John Coogan?

  Yeah. I think I could pull it off.

• 45:33Jordi Hays?

  It's got a, when you do it, it's just awesome.

• 45:36John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 45:36Jordi Hays?

  When other people not, not so much, but other podcasters.

• 45:39John Coogan?

  Other people struggled with it, but, uh, I think I could pull it off.

• 45:44Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. And hubris is just one of those things. You gotta, you gotta indulge in it and see if it's right for you, right?

• 45:48John Coogan?

  Yeah, exactly.

• 45:49Jordi Hays?

  Not everybody looks, I mean, I was gonna say, not everybody looked good in a suit. Not true. Everybody looks better in a suit, but you get what I'm getting at.

• 45:57John Coogan?

  Let's go to 22. Logic and reason return to all walks of life, business and politics. That's hilarious.

• 46:03Jordi Hays?

  That's a good, that's a good.

• 46:05John Coogan?

  It feels like the opposite of what's happening. It feels like crazier than ever. I, I'm full on.

• 46:09Jordi Hays?

  No, but, but in some, but, but in some, but in some ways, like the Zuck announcement today.

• 46:14John Coogan?

  True, true.

• 46:14Jordi Hays?

  Saying, hey, free speech is important. It's also content moderation is also important. We're gonna try to thread the needle here better. That just seems like logic and reason.

• 46:23John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 46:24Jordi Hays?

  Uh, standard increase. Standards have been going up dramatically.

• 46:28John Coogan?

  The innovation train continues to roll. Love it.

• 46:31Jordi Hays?

  There is good list, good list.

• 46:33John Coogan?

  Let's go to Fred Wilson with his what will happen in 2025.

• 46:37Jordi Hays?

  He's been doing these, he's been doing these for a while. We should honestly go back.

• 46:40John Coogan?

  Yeah, we should.

• 46:41Jordi Hays?

  And look at some of the.

• 46:42John Coogan?

  Hour deep dive for sure. I've done a lot of these January first look forward posts in the 20 years I've been blogging. Use many different approaches. Here are some of his predictions. Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to surpass OpenAI ChatGPT in consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025. What's interesting is like

• 47:00Jordi Hays?

  I mean, but so that so they arguably Google already has because I'm now getting so much AI summaries. Yeah.

• 47:07John Coogan?

  And I don't know about Apple because, I mean, have you tried the new Apple Intelligence?

• 47:13Jordi Hays?

  I mean, he sent me a summary.

• 47:15John Coogan?

  I mean, the summaries are the summaries are funny and they're okay. They're not super useful, but like just actually opening up Siri like I want to be able to just treat it like ChatGPT. Like, like, hey Siri, give me a summary of, you know, of Fred Wilson's predictions over the last 20 years and I should just get ChatGPT. But with this, it's like you have to link your account and then tell it like, hey, go to ChatGPT. Don't stick around on the local phone. I want you to go to the actual big model. And it's like, it's iffy. They'll figure it out, but it's like, it is tricky. And I still think chat.com and ChatGPT is still just like mentally a place where people go. And I think underrated is like, is like, I see, I think if you look at some of the new product developments that OpenAI is working on, it's a lot of like

• 47:59John Coogan?

  creating like a notebook almost where it's more collaborative and you can edit and develop a document. And that's, I see it as a new workspace, like a spreadsheet. And I'm like, okay, I'm going to go do some work with an LLM and I want to, and I need a new browser tab for that. And Google doesn't have that yet. Like they have Gemini Studio and a million different like, like beta products. They have the Google search results, which are like kind of helpful. If you're just searching, you don't want to see a million sponsored posts and links and stuff. But I'm never going to Google with like, I'm going to work on collaboratively and really understand this topic in depth. And because if I'm, if I'm researching cars or something, I'm going to want to follow up and ask a bunch of different questions.

• 48:40John Coogan?

  Okay, give me the full history of Ferrari. Now compare it to Lamborghini. Now create a table. Now export all that. Now give me the highest rank it, resort it, all this stuff. That's something that I want to do in its own environment, its own UI and, and they don't have that. Waymo will surpass Uber in rides taken in San Francisco and Los Angeles by the end of 2025. Certainly seems like that's happening in San Francisco and I can see it happening in LA.

• 49:04Jordi Hays?

  I don't know about LA, just based on they would have to drop.

• 49:09Jordi Hays?

  Ten times more, I mean, depends on what.

• 49:12John Coogan?

  Yeah, a lot, lot more cars.

• 49:12Jordi Hays?

  I bet you could figure out how many they're planning to deliver.

• 49:15John Coogan?

  Are we talking city or county, Fred? You gotta be more precise because there's wildly different geographic areas between Los Angeles city and Los Angeles county. Um, but the, if, if they're just in downtown, absolutely.

• 49:27Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 49:27John Coogan?

  No problem. Direct bank to bank payments will surpass credit card interchange payments in a few categories in the U.S. in 2025. I have no idea how they're tracking right now.

• 49:36Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 49:36John Coogan?

  Um, it could have been, either one of those could be 10x the other and I wouldn't know, but cool.

• 49:42Jordi Hays?

  The real prediction is, will the technology brothers use stable coins to purchase a GT3 RS? Uh, by the end of 2025.

• 49:51John Coogan?

  We'll definitely be using, uh, that, that Bitcoin leverage one.

• 49:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, lava.

• 49:57John Coogan?

  Lava, where we can pull the debt out of the Bitcoin.

• 49:59Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 50:00John Coogan?

  I want a GT3 RS secured by my Bitcoin for sure. Um, a decentralized clinical trial attracts millions of participants and produces a favorable outcome and Trump's FDA not only approves the drug, but celebrates the approach.

• 50:13Jordi Hays?

  Seems like an aggressive timeline.

• 50:15John Coogan?

  Short timeline, yep.

• 50:16Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that sounds cool.

• 50:17John Coogan?

  But seems somewhat reasonable.

• 50:20John Coogan?

  But what's weird is that it's like, how do you do a decentralized clinical trial that also requires testing a drug? Because like, so let's say I'm a drug developer and I'm like, okay, what's, what's a very basic thing that like, okay, everyone's having trouble sleeping, so I'm gonna make melatonin 2.0, right? And I formulate it in my kitchen. I'm like, I got something that I think is good, but we don't know if it's safe or effective. And so we're gonna do decentralized trial. You're listening to the podcast, go to melatonin2.0.com to like, test it out and we'll send it to you. Okay, you're immediately violating FDA rules, so they need to change those. Um, I could see a decentralized clinical trial happening where

• 51:00John Coogan?

  it's like, everyone is sharing their sleep data and then something, a recommendation comes out of that.

• 51:06Jordi Hays?

  I think it has to be data oriented.

• 51:07John Coogan?

  I would see, I, I could see Maha pulling something in where it's like, we wanna know, everyone in America now has the opportunity to share their seed oil consumption and their body fat percentage and we're gonna run some massive correlated study on this. Like, that could be interesting. But, um, just, just alone, like drug development, I, I just think a year is too short. Uh, a housekeeper robot named Judy is launched by Dyson and it becomes a massive success, selling millions of units. Huh.

• 51:31Jordi Hays?

  Again, timeline issue here.

• 51:33John Coogan?

  Are they planning to do this?

• 51:34Jordi Hays?

  I don't, I, I looked it up and I didn't see anything from Dyson.

• 51:39John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 51:39Jordi Hays?

  I think Judy is some reference to a robot in some movie at some point.

• 51:43John Coogan?

  I, I just wonder like, okay, so Dyson doesn't have a Roomba, right?

• 51:48Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 51:48John Coogan?

  Count as a housekeeping robot?

• 51:51Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 51:51John Coogan?

  I don't know.

• 51:52Jordi Hays?

  Dyson's such a cool company.

• 51:53John Coogan?

  It is. Yeah. Senna's done three episodes.

• 51:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 51:56John Coogan?

  You gotta go listen to founders.

• 51:58Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 51:59John Coogan?

  I don't know the exact numbers, but he's posted about it. So you can go find those. NFT art left for dead in the, in, at the end of 2024 makes a remarkable comeback and the MoMA purchases the 6529 Museum of Art for an undisclosed sum. I don't know exactly what NFT project that is.

• 52:16Jordi Hays?

  I don't, it's not a specific project. It's a collector who's put together.

• 52:20John Coogan?

  Yeah, a bunch of stuff.

• 52:21Jordi Hays?

  A bunch of great NFT works.

• 52:22John Coogan?

  I mean, I, I think that art values come from stories.

• 52:27Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 52:28John Coogan?

  You like, wasn't it Van Gogh cut off his ear?

• 52:32Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 52:32John Coogan?

  Like by doing that, he canonized himself and the art, there's probably another person from that era.

• 52:38Jordi Hays?

  Cut off your ear, put it on the blockchain.

• 52:40John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 52:40Jordi Hays?

  Sell it to the MoMA.

• 52:41John Coogan?

  No, I mean Da Vinci, like, why is the Mona Lisa so valuable? Like, it's not, it is like this, like groundbreaking, beautiful portrait, but also like, there's the whole history of Da Vinci inventing flying machines and stuff like, like that gives it more value.

• 52:53Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 52:54John Coogan?

  And, and it's the same thing with like, you know, Andy Warhol and commenting on capitalism and consumerism and stuff. Like the story is always what drives the value with these things. And so will some NFT project wind up having a fantastic story? Absolutely. I think Moxie Marlinspikes.

• 53:10Jordi Hays?

  Pudgy Penguins selling in Target.

• 53:12John Coogan?

  Pudgy Penguins is almost a different thing because it's like, it's just a commercial like business. It's almost like, yeah, it's almost like a brand like Supreme or something where it will have value because as a commercial brand. But I think just pure NFT art, which I wouldn't even put Pudgy Penguins in, will have value in the sense of like the.

• 53:28Jordi Hays?

  One of my favorite things that we did back in the day at Party Round is we posted on, there was this time that was like, It was like, everybody would post like, reply with your wallet address.

• 53:39John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 53:40Jordi Hays?

  And we'll airdrop you something. And so we had a bunch of people do that. And then we airdropped everyone NFTs that were ads for Party Round. Which is great, because you send somebody an NFT and it just sits in their wallet and they actually have to pay to get it out of their wallet. So we just airdropped, I remember we put an ad in like Dylan Field's wallet that was like, this is an ad for Party Round and like, like Comic Sans.

• 54:01John Coogan?

  Yeah, see like that has, that has a providence where it's like this stunt, there's history around it, there's a story, like those might actually.

• 54:08Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 54:08John Coogan?

  Ironically wind up being worth something.

• 54:11Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 54:11John Coogan?

  Uh, the, the, the NFT that I think has almost the most value is Moxie Marlin Spikes As You So. So he was very bearish on NFTs. And what he did was, he said, you know, everyone's saying these are decentralized, but I created, he created an NFT. That when it's viewed on OpenSea, it shows you one thing. When it's viewed in a Ethereum wallet, it shows you a different thing. Phantom wallet shows you a different one. And, and one of them was just like, it showed, it rendered a poop emoji. The other one rendered some joke and.

• 54:40Jordi Hays?

  That's funny.

• 54:41John Coogan?

  Yeah. And he wrote this real blog post, like taking down and like really analyzing what was wrong with NFTs and where people were getting over their skis. And, and I was like, that NFT, it's only, it's a one of one. And it's by Moxie Marlin Spike, the founder of Signal, like a.

• 54:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 54:56John Coogan?

  World historic figure in terms of like cybersecurity.

• 54:59Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 55:00John Coogan?

  Uh, it's like, and he's not an artist, but he's the only one he's made. And it's like, super interesting. I tried to buy it off of him, but he was like, how much do you, how much will you pay me? And I was like, I don't actually know. I haven't thought about what, what it's worth, but I should go and buy it from him. Um, let's keep going. An AI doctor with the personality of Mr. Rogers will treat millions of patients at zero cost in 2025.

• 55:19Jordi Hays?

  This is basically just chat GPT and you just prompt it to, to, to talk like Mr. Rogers and then boom. I actually do wonder, I wonder how many queries on. Chat GPT are already like medical diagnoses type things.

• 55:35John Coogan?

  Probably a lot. Um, I just wonder like this makes it sound like it's someone fine tuning it. And when you go there, you always get Mr. Rogers and I don't know if that's the winning world. What's up?

• 55:48Jordi Hays?

  You can see the fire from uh.

• 55:49John Coogan?

  Whoa, there's a fire going on in.

• 55:52Jordi Hays?

  In the Palisades.

• 55:53John Coogan?

  In the Palisades right now.

• 55:54Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 55:55John Coogan?

  Ooh.

• 55:55Jordi Hays?

  And this is my brother in law sending a picture from Century City.

• 55:59John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 56:00Jordi Hays?

  So you can see the flames just ripping.

• 56:02John Coogan?

  Not good.

• 56:02Jordi Hays?

  Crazy. All right, back to the podcast.

• 56:04John Coogan?

  Bitcoin mining operation will pair with a wind farm in Newfoundland and grid scale battery storage to power an AI data center. Showcasing a new model for sustainable infrastructure.

• 56:13Jordi Hays?

  A lot of buzzwords and.

• 56:15John Coogan?

  This is already happening. This is, this is Crusoe, this is Crusoe Cloud. Like they were a Bitcoin mining, mining operation. They had peaker plants on natural gas extraction and, but they also use wind and all sorts of stuff. They use grid scale battery storage and they power AI data centers now. So yeah, bullish on Crusoe, I guess.

• 56:34Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 56:35John Coogan?

  Arizona's ESA program attracts over 25% of K-12 students in the state, leading to a number of local school closures. I don't know enough about the ESA program to comment on this. Is that homeschooling? Something like that.

• 56:48Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 56:48John Coogan?

  Um, but always bullish on new models of education. 10. An AI produces an animated feature film that is nominated for an Oscar. Not gonna happen in 2025, but probably soon. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an Oscar nominated film that uses an AI generated image or sequence. I don't know about the whole film and certainly not one shot.

• 57:12Jordi Hays?

  If, if Hollywood is not creating their own like proprietary tools.

• 57:18John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 57:18Jordi Hays?

  To generate.

• 57:19John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 57:19Jordi Hays?

  Content.

• 57:20John Coogan?

  So.

• 57:21Jordi Hays?

  They're fucked.

• 57:21John Coogan?

  It, it is, the, the best example of AI being used in Hollywood right now. There's a few. One was in, uh, in the Marvel Endgame Avengers movie with Thanos. They have to animate his mouth and his skin. And when they, uh.

• 57:38Jordi Hays?

  Did he not cheer enough mass to come or something?

• 57:40John Coogan?

  Yeah. When they put the dots on his face and then they do the facial capture to get the motion, but it's not high resolution enough and they use an AI model to upscale the motion capture data essentially. And then I saw another version where a film that was that was produced in maybe Polish or German was translated into English and they used AI to do replace the mouth movements.

• 58:07Jordi Hays?

  Interesting.

• 58:07John Coogan?

  But they also use CGI. So a lot of these, a lot of this AI stuff is going deeper into the CGI pipelines. And so right now, if if you're, whenever you see those behind the scenes and it's like some, some soldier fighting on a green screen. It's like, that's not always just one click the button and the green screen goes away. A lot of times it's like, well, there's wires and stuff. So they still send it out usually to abroad. And they have a bunch of people literally drawing around the edges of every single frame and they just have hundreds of people doing it. It's called rotoscoping. And then there might be an AI tool that also is integrated in there. And so, you know, a lot of it's like, what's the definition? I disagree with the idea that there'll be a one-shot AI, like make me a movie, Oscar, no way.

• 58:52John Coogan?

  But if there's someone who has a great vision and they need a couple of frames of like B-roll and stuff and they fill in the story.

• 58:59Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I think in 2025, the one-shot, the one-shot videos are still gonna be slop.

• 59:04John Coogan?

  They're, they're, they're gonna fight back against this and they're not gonna give it just because of the statement it makes.

• 59:09Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 59:11John Coogan?

  A taxi, an air taxi service launches in New York City, offering an alternative to the L train commute. Woo, I would love that. Are we talking helicopters or are we talking flying cars?

• 59:20Jordi Hays?

  What about the, the Vitol, you know, there's Archer, the, the figure founders, last company will someday do a commercial flight.

• 59:30John Coogan?

  Scale in terms of manufacturing yet. And I don't think many of them are FAA approved in any meaningful way.

• 59:35Jordi Hays?

  What I like about what Fred does with these is he's just putting out what he wants to happen.

• 59:39John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 59:40Jordi Hays?

  He doesn't really care if it happens now or in 10 years. He just wants it to happen.

• 59:44John Coogan?

  No, no, no. These are just like, it's almost like a request for startups. Yeah, it's great. TikTok turns all video into meme coins that can be traded on decentralized exchanges all over the world. That's funny. I wonder like that, I, that, that feels like useless if it's just collector items, but. Maybe valuable if you're able to instantly sell the revenue from a video. The problem is that TikTok doesn't have really long half lives. Like you get a million views and then you're done and maybe the creator payout that week is a

• 1:00:15Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, it's kind of interesting to think, okay, I'm watching this video at sub 10,000 views. Can I buy a piece of it and maybe it trades for more?

• 1:00:24John Coogan?

  Some of my videos get millions of views every month forever. Like, like I put one out that's on the history of Donald Trump. It has 3 million views now. That video alone probably generates over a thousand dollars a month.

• 1:00:35Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:00:36John Coogan?

  And so I could in theory sell that off and then share that whoever buys it gets that revenue stream. And there are services that do that. It was called, there was something that was really hot in the YouTube space and a bunch of YouTubers like sold their back catalogs and then like

• 1:00:49Jordi Hays?

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:00:50John Coogan?

  It's pretty sick.

• 1:00:51Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, wasn't I, I, I do think that, um, didn't Mr. Beast do that?

• 1:00:55John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:00:55Jordi Hays?

  To help fund some of these bigger videos.

• 1:00:57John Coogan?

  Which is great. And, and, and there's a long history of this with like the Beatles selling the back catalog, Michael Jackson.

• 1:01:03Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, big artists have been doing this forever.

• 1:01:04John Coogan?

  And there were a lot of people that made a ton of money doing that because they bought low. They bought the right asset and it went really big. And then there's obviously like the famous Taylor Swift ar- argument about how she sold it and then had buyer's or seller's remorse. Um, very interesting. And number 13, the USV librarian goes rogue, gets access to USV's crypto wallet and starts making seed investments. One of which turns into a fund returner.

• 1:01:30Jordi Hays?

  He's just manifesting at this point. Love it.

• 1:01:33John Coogan?

  So I guess the librarian is like an AI that they trained on something else. Uh, should we go to Nikhil Basu Trevetti, who writes the next big thing in 2025?

• 1:01:42Jordi Hays?

  I've always, I've always, Nikhil's got a very dialed format.

• 1:01:46John Coogan?

  Yeah, these are great because he runs a blog, but for his predictions, he asks a ton of people to Uh, to give their predictions, then he just aggregates them and he gets some really top people. I mean, uh, general partner at Benchmark.

• 1:02:00Jordi Hays?

  Dara.

• 1:02:01John Coogan?

  Three point five.

• 1:02:02Jordi Hays?

  Dara from Delphi.

• 1:02:03John Coogan?

  Partner at Tim, at Timeter. Oh, he's in here. That's great. Uh, Jess Lee at Sequoia, lots of good people. So, uh, we should just kind of skip through these pick like the, maybe the best one from each category. Let's go with AI agents and I want to hear what Claude has to say. That's funny. He asked Claude 3.5 Sonnet. And Claude says the next big thing in 2025 will be the widespread adoption of AI agents that can autonomously handle complex multi-step tasks from scheduling your entire vacation to managing your small business operations while being fully aligned with individual users, preferences and values. This shift will mark the beginning of truly personalized AI assistance that goes far beyond today's basic chatbots and virtual assistants.

• 1:02:44John Coogan?

  Um, I mean, it's certainly happening in niche categories right now with like dedicated startups that do things from end to end. And I would love to see more of this because we have plenty of multi-step tasks that can be prompted. I mean, we saw Dwar Cash talking about just doing the transcripts from his like messy podcast transcripts with lots of ums and uhs. And he has a master prompt, but it's really just one-shotting it. It's one, it's one prompt. It's much better if he could just have a, an AI agent sitting there and says, hey, as soon as this RSS feed gets updated. Step one, download the, download the MP3. Step two, send it over to Whisper, get it transcribed.

• 1:03:25John Coogan?

  Step three, run the transcript. Step four, upload the better transcript. Like do that for me too. Don't just give me the text. I want it, I want it live and I want it just sitting there. Uh, we have, uh, there, there was a fan of the show who wrote in and said, I'll do your, your, uh, your title ideas and send in some, uh, some chapters. We get a lot of people asking for chapters on YouTube. And that's a great thing that AI should do. Eventually YouTube will do it automatically. They have some automatic chapters functionality, but uh, we'd love more fine-tuned control over it. So an AI agent would be fantastic there. AI interfaces. Uh, let's go to Altimeter. Uh, Jamin Ball says, I'm on the second page here.

• 1:04:05John Coogan?

  And on AI interfaces, Jermaine Ball says the next big thing in 2025 will be a Cambrian explosion of voice AI applications, latency on inference, latency on networking, and more advanced turn detection, background, background noise detection will lead to truly human-like experiences with software.

• 1:04:23Jordi Hays?

  See, this is, this is, just to make it relevant to some stuff we talked about before, this is the bull case for friend, is that if the underlying technology gets dramatically better, and then you have this device that's with you 24/7, it could turn into the craziest relationship you've ever had, right?

• 1:04:42John Coogan?

  Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's also interesting, like, what are you looking for in a relationship? Like, if it's capable of being like a friend, then, you know, it's also capable of just being like an assistant, and just bouncing ideas off you, a secretary, yeah.

• 1:04:58Jordi Hays?

  Nothing will ever replace a world-class secretary.

• 1:05:01John Coogan?

  Let's talk through Eric Newcomer. He, on, on AI applications, he says, "The next big thing in 2025 will be in the world of artificial intelligence, where it's going to be cool to be a GPT wrapper again. Consumers and businesses both need help figuring out how best to use already very powerful language models, so we're going to see a bunch of applications crop up that help people get the most out of these models. Startups will build sales motions, integrations, customer know-how, etc., and won't need some huge technological moat to justify their existence. Of course, no one will want to call their company a rapper, think more GPT refiner. These companies will get data particular to their use case, do some human reinforcement learning, and deliver an easy-to-use product that leads the horse to water instead of intimidating empty tech."

• 1:05:46Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, you're building, you're basically building the interface for the model.

• 1:05:49John Coogan?

  Yep. That makes sense. AI-generated content. Let's go to Demir at Index. He says, "The next big thing will be video generation models. Video is the ultimate form of creative expression, and how we produce it will fundamentally be transformed as a result of next-generation models." Yep, I agree. Have you played with Sora yet? I think I have access because I'm GPT Pro, but I haven't actually done it. I think it should be useful for our editors to pull B-roll and stuff, but

• 1:06:18Jordi Hays?

  Just make the most unhinged slop B-roll.

• 1:06:21John Coogan?

  Some of the slop B-rolls, like, the question is like, when is it helpful to illustrate something? And usually, I feel like you want a very specific shot, but it can be helpful in storytelling.

• 1:06:33Jordi Hays?

  I'm ready for somebody to make the, somebody just needs to fully lean in. I don't endorse this, but it'd be funny. The ayahuasca visualization engine with Sora, where it just takes you through the giga slop, like, mental journey of ayahuasca.

• 1:06:51John Coogan?

  Yeah. Let's just keep moving.

• 1:06:54Jordi Hays?

  Scott Belsky, always sharp. He says, "The next big thing in 2025 will be top AI talent shifting from working in companies pioneering the latest and greatest AI to taking leadership roles in the industry that benefit most from AI."

• 1:07:09Jordi Hays?

  I won't go in further, but that's interesting. It's basically, you know, right now, the top AI talent is working at AI companies, but then eventually it's like, hey, could you have a bigger impact if you went and worked at a company like Flexport, right? And like, became a leader at the intersection of AI and logistics, right?

• 1:07:26John Coogan?

  Oh, let's go to Dara. In the not AI category. "The next big thing in 2025 will be a counter movement to AI content overload, bringing focus back to human curation and authenticity. Infinite AI-generated content is still in its wow and novelty phase, but anytime there's abundance of an asset, the pendulum swings to the other side, where people appreciate the scarce assets that come with quality, which in information's case is trust. As trust becomes scarce, influence will concentrate among select curators and experts that, who can use AI to scale their validated perspectives while maintaining credibility. These curators will have unprecedented reach and impact, as they'll be able to maintain personal connections at scale through AI-enhanced interactions

• 1:08:11John Coogan?

  while preserving the authenticity that made people trust them in the first place." Interesting.

• 1:08:17Jordi Hays?

  Dara, always sharp. Nicole Wishoff.

• 1:08:20John Coogan?

  You've got to know what questions to ask.

• 1:08:22Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Nicole Wishoff says, "The next big thing in 2025 will not be AI as the main character. Bets have been made, and there are many hot takes on commoditization in models. The physical infrastructure will be the really important conversation. Energy, data centers, and the Trump admin coming in. More thoughts will go into how we power AI, not the outcomes of AI, which has dominated all of 2024."

• 1:08:43John Coogan?

  That's a good take.

• 1:08:48John Coogan?

  Let's go to Gary Tan. "The next big thing in 2025 will be startups of 10 people getting to 10 million ARR in less than 18 months with less than 5 million raised."

• 1:08:57Jordi Hays?

  This is why, I mean, it's hard to imagine any company better positioned than YC. I could, yeah, it's probably one of the greatest business models of all time.

• 1:09:10John Coogan?

  It's fantastic.

• 1:09:12Jordi Hays?

  Product, so I like this one from, from Michael. Lightspeed, he says, "The next big thing in 2025 will be the return of the product-oriented founder. The magic of AI technology that led to instant PMF for so many companies is starting to wane. What's needed now is exceptional products that solve real problems and the teams that can natively build them." So, yeah, I think, I've seen that, I think, I think we've seen that in the last six months or so, where founders that had been building something and maybe exited, like Jordan Singer, are now getting back in the game, starting from scratch, thinking in a very AI-native way.

• 1:09:46John Coogan?

  There's another one here on GLP-1s. "The next big thing will be a second win for GLP-1 drugs," is from Nan Lee at Dimension. "Already a blockbuster product in obesity and in diabetes, headed toward 50 billion of annual sales. Remember the other prediction we saw? There was 100."

• 1:09:59Jordi Hays?

  Size gone.

• 1:10:00John Coogan?

  It's like 2X. "This class of medicines will be further bolstered by new research findings. First off, there seems to be no limit to what diseases GLP-1 biology is linked to as label expansion studies continue to create strong signal in everything from sleep apnea, now FDA-approved, to chronic heart failure."

• 1:10:17Jordi Hays?

  Funny, I saw, so there's a, uh...

• 1:10:21Jordi Hays?

  A week ago.

• 1:10:22John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:10:22Jordi Hays?

  At the Aman, it's a very nice hotel.

• 1:10:24John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:10:25Jordi Hays?

  I saw this individual who I spoke to at one point, very large. And I just kept thinking, like seemingly like uncomfortably large. And I was thinking like, why? Like there's still, it seems like be being overweight will become somewhat of a choice. But some people are still going to just choose to not do.

• 1:10:46John Coogan?

  Because you want to physically intimidate your opponents.

• 1:10:48Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Be a size lord.

• 1:10:49John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 1:10:52John Coogan?

  Maybe that's a good prediction. Wilmanitis puts the weight back on.

• 1:10:54Jordi Hays?

  Ooh, Arfa, Arfa Rock got to mention in here. The next big thing in 2025 will be hemp based THC. The US market for Delta 8 THC and other hemp derived cannabinoids has increased by a whopping 1,200% in just three years. Going from 200 million to 2.8 billion. Uh, I think marijuana should be.

• 1:11:13John Coogan?

  That's so much banned.

• 1:11:15Jordi Hays?

  Banned, uh, but, uh, anyways.

• 1:11:19John Coogan?

  Delian.

• 1:11:19Jordi Hays?

  I like Arfa.

• 1:11:20John Coogan?

  Co-founder at Varda and partner at Founders Fund says, the next big thing in 2025 will be regular landings on the moon of equipment to prepare for people shortly thereafter.

• 1:11:29Jordi Hays?

  Love that.

• 1:11:29John Coogan?

  I love that. I mean.

• 1:11:30Jordi Hays?

  We should, we should send some full podcast studio up there just to get, just to get ready. The first podcast studio on the moon.

• 1:11:37John Coogan?

  It's great. Let's see, what else we got? IPOs, Gokul Rajaram at Marathon says, the next big thing will be tech and IPO markets booming. Agree. Big tech earnings. Chad Byer says, the next big thing will be mainstream adoption of agents and large enterprise, leading to increased earnings and quarterly beats resulting in continued stock all time highs.

• 1:12:01Jordi Hays?

  We love quarterly beats.

• 1:12:03John Coogan?

  Among hyperscalers. I love it. Should we close with our own predictions? We asked 24 billionaires for their 2025 tech predictions and here they are. Mark Andreessen gets hair transplants. Artificial intelligence will get better.

• 1:12:18Jordi Hays?

  That's the best, the best prediction possible. Artificial intelligence, cause, cause it seems like you just can't miss on that one.

• 1:12:25John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 1:12:26Jordi Hays?

  And if predictions are all about, it's not about being, saying cool things. It's about being right.

• 1:12:30John Coogan?

  Exactly. Speaking of being right, Bitcoin hits 25 million per coin. I think we got that one in the bag.

• 1:12:35Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 1:12:36John Coogan?

  Keith Raboy becomes a mass monster and gets his IFBB pro card.

• 1:12:40Jordi Hays?

  Big.

• 1:12:41John Coogan?

  Most of the major cities will be replaced with vast pleasure domes used exclusively by the Excelsiorites, who are the neo-upper class, while the displaced hordes of lower-class depth groglers will live underground in tiered cities endlessly toiling away for nuggets of neoplasmid. Do you know what that's wrong? You gotta look it up one day.

• 1:13:02Jordi Hays?

  You gotta.

• 1:13:04John Coogan?

  Venture capitalist formally becomes a slur in the Oxford English Dictionary. I love that. Databricks IPO prices above $147 a share.

• 1:13:13Jordi Hays?

  You gotta kind of pull the number out of the hat on that one.

• 1:13:16John Coogan?

  Yeah, 50% premium to last price, I think.

• 1:13:19Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:13:19John Coogan?

  Underperformance of European VCs results in mass famine and chaos on the continent. Most EU countries backslide into feudalism.

• 1:13:28Jordi Hays?

  Love it.

• 1:13:29John Coogan?

  I think that's.

• 1:13:29Jordi Hays?

  As long as it remains a great vacation destination for hardworking Americans.

• 1:13:33John Coogan?

  Yes. Yeah, it's like our Disneyland. Elizabeth Holmes has a stunning comeback. I think that's in the bag. Venture-backed defense tech companies collectively rack up over 100,000 confirmed kills. Well on our way. Mark Zuckerberg gets really into lawn care. I think the bro arc of Zuckerberg is like.

• 1:13:50Jordi Hays?

  Lawn care is, he got into grilling, he got into watches.

• 1:13:54John Coogan?

  Cars.

• 1:13:54Jordi Hays?

  Cars, minivans, minivans. Steak, he got big in a steak.

• 1:13:59John Coogan?

  Yeah, he's, I think he's gonna go precision rifle series, PRS, long range, long distance, custom rifle builds. That's definitely happening.

• 1:14:07Jordi Hays?

  He needs to buy an F1 team. That would be good. Like, why does Meta not have like Meta racing? Like, that would just be fantastic. Meta has the best, Meta has the best advertising network of all time.

• 1:14:20John Coogan?

  He should buy the NFL, the NBA, the WWE, the UFC, and F1. All of it. Not just a team, the whole thing.

• 1:14:28Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:14:30John Coogan?

  Uh, at least two GPs at tier one funds will go to jail. I think we know what we're talking about there. Virtual reality will have a major moment. That's exciting.

• 1:14:39Jordi Hays?

  That's exciting.

• 1:14:40John Coogan?

  That's exciting. After years of financial mismanagement, the all in podcast will declare bankruptcy and be acquired by private equity.

• 1:14:46Jordi Hays?

  That one is.

• 1:14:48John Coogan?

  That hurts.

• 1:14:48Jordi Hays?

  That, we hate to see a good podcast go down, but they lost, they lost.

• 1:14:53John Coogan?

  The numbers are what they are.

• 1:14:53Jordi Hays?

  They lost their, they lost their top dog.

• 1:14:55John Coogan?

  They lost their star.

• 1:14:56Jordi Hays?

  Their absolute dog.

• 1:14:57John Coogan?

  And the revenue's just been too low.

• 1:14:59Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:00John Coogan?

  That's the problem.

• 1:15:00Jordi Hays?

  They're not going to be the most profitable podcast without, with relying on events for revenue.

• 1:15:06John Coogan?

  Yeah. A major investigative journalist will write an expose on humiliation rituals at venture capital firms. We've, we've heard a lot about those. Uh, Ramp will continue to offer a seamless corporate card experience to the best private and public companies on earth. Big game hunting replaces skiing as the go-to VC offsite activity. You know, we posted this before the, uh, before all the chaos at Vale, you know, you're not hearing a lot of chaos on the Serengeti. There aren't a lot of line, lift lines to go hunt a tiger or a lion. So.

• 1:15:36Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:37John Coogan?

  It seems like an obvious trade.

• 1:15:38Jordi Hays?

  Big game hunting. We, we're going to do a brother's big game hunting trip at some point.

• 1:15:42John Coogan?

  For sure. Another VC will be fired for not being able to hold his liquor. I think we know who we're talking about there.

• 1:15:48Jordi Hays?

  Yep. But there is the blackout to fund manager pipeline, which still exists.

• 1:15:53John Coogan?

  Yep. Uh, the new Tesla Roadster will finally ship and it will have a naturally aspirated V12 and a gated manual.

• 1:15:59Jordi Hays?

  Let's go.

• 1:16:00John Coogan?

  I'm excited for that. I'm, I'm seriously considering putting a reservation down on the new Roadster. I think it's going to be awesome.

• 1:16:06Jordi Hays?

  It's a good buy.

• 1:16:07John Coogan?

  I think, I think this is the year he's going to deliver it. It's been forever delayed, but now like everything's clear. Stocks at all time highs. Like he's got all the approvals and stuff. Like he needs a new halo car. Like it would just be so sick.

• 1:16:19Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. I think he's letting the cyber truck kind of hype.

• 1:16:23John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:16:23Jordi Hays?

  Play out.

• 1:16:24John Coogan?

  Yeah. It's going to look so good. The cyber con look like a cyber truck hurrican. That'd be awesome.

• 1:16:29Jordi Hays?

  That'd be wild.

• 1:16:30John Coogan?

  I hope, I hope he, I really hope he takes the cyber truck aesthetics into the Roadster. I don't want the Roadster to look like the old Roadster at all.

• 1:16:37Jordi Hays?

  That's true.

• 1:16:38John Coogan?

  Or the Model S.

• 1:16:39Jordi Hays?

  If he makes like a very Tron-esque.

• 1:16:41John Coogan?

  They all look exactly the same and they look super boring to me. Cybertruck, I think, looks sick. So take that, shrink it down. Oh, yeah, that'd be so good.

• 1:16:48Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:16:49John Coogan?

  Um, it'd be.

• 1:16:49Jordi Hays?

  That would honestly be, if it, if it felt more like a Lamborghini than a, like a futuristic Lamborghini.

• 1:16:57John Coogan?

  Yeah, it shouldn't look like a lease.

• 1:16:58Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that makes me wanna, what, what, what's the actual?

• 1:17:02John Coogan?

  I think you put down like 10K or something.

• 1:17:03Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:17:03John Coogan?

  But the whole thing is like you could just put money in, in, uh, in Tesla stock. YC will fund a company that makes humanoid robots with guns for arms. I like that. YC's been getting more into the military industrial complex. We love to see it. LPs finally start refusing to back GPs that wear shorts in a business setting.

• 1:17:23Jordi Hays?

  Good to see.

• 1:17:24John Coogan?

  Every tech podcast not releasing daily episodes will fade into obscurity in the face of relentless competition from the Technology Brothers.

• 1:17:31Jordi Hays?

  Fact check, true.

• 1:17:33John Coogan?

  Yeah, I don't know.

• 1:17:33Jordi Hays?

  It's not even as much of a prediction as.

• 1:17:35John Coogan?

  It's a fact. Yeah. AI agents will cause homelessness in San Francisco to fall to 0%, but their methods will be harshly criticized by the public. Oh, what's happening there?

• 1:17:44Jordi Hays?

  Deadly.

• 1:17:45John Coogan?

  Brian Johnson will die in a hail of gunfire during a raid on a top secret government bio lab that contains a fountain of youth elixir. What did we miss? Let us know. DM us if you have predictions and that concludes our.

• 1:17:59Jordi Hays?

  We never miss.

• 1:18:00John Coogan?

  Predictions for 2025. We have to die.

• 1:18:03Jordi Hays?

  We gotta, we gotta take, let's take a quick, uh.

• 1:18:06John Coogan?

  Okay, let's take a quick break. Welcome back to the Technology Brothers. Still the most profitable podcast in the world.

• 1:18:13Jordi Hays?

  LA is still burning down. We're still podcasting.

• 1:18:16John Coogan?

  We have some breaking news, though. Mark Zuckerberg has announced that Meta will be relaxing the, what do you call it? Censorship, I guess.

• 1:18:27Jordi Hays?

  Censorship. Hey guys.

• 1:18:29John Coogan?

  We're not.

• 1:18:29Jordi Hays?

  Dialing back the censorship and we got kinda out of control.

• 1:18:33John Coogan?

  The announcement video was so funny because Zuck has this style where he's just like, he directs a camera, he's just like, hey guys, I just want to give you an update. And normally it's like, you know, we're really excited to announce like creator monetization. But with this one, it was just like, oh my God, it's getting so much more extreme. And it's just like, we're not gonna penalize people for, you know, talking about politics anymore. And it's like, okay, that's pretty reasonable. And he's like, we're gonna have this community notes feature, and we're gonna let that do a lot of the work. So it's community police and, you know, we're, we're, we're not good like, like the, the automated systems make a lot of mistakes. It's like, oh, that's reasonable. He's like, oh, and by the way, we're moving our trust and safety organization from San Francisco to Texas.

• 1:19:12Jordi Hays?

  To the great state of Texas.

• 1:19:13John Coogan?

  It's like, oh my God, that's like a bomb going off in terms of cultural change.

• 1:19:17Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:19:17John Coogan?

  Wild. But all of that is just a sideshow to the real, the real reason why we need to talk about this story.

• 1:19:25Jordi Hays?

  Clearly the real reason why he made the video.

• 1:19:27John Coogan?

  Yes. 100%. It's because he needed to show off his beautiful $1 million gruble forsey handmade one watch. And so we have a post here from DeeDee. He says, Zuck was wearing a $1 million watch in his community notes announcement video. Nothing says, I understand the culture shift of the community more than a watch that costs more than most people's houses. That's true. I don't know if he's joking, but like, that's true. It's like, the era, this is authentic.

• 1:19:56Jordi Hays?

  He's not messing around.

• 1:19:57John Coogan?

  He's a billionaire. He should have a million dollar watch. Why not? And it's a cool story and we're gonna take you through what makes this watch so special and why it's actually fine and cool and great. And it's awesome that he's into it.

• 1:20:09Jordi Hays?

  It's a celebration of his success.

• 1:20:10John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:20:10Jordi Hays?

  Meta success.

• 1:20:11John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:20:11Jordi Hays?

  And watchmaking.

• 1:20:13John Coogan?

  The numbers he's put up, not just a billion.

• 1:20:16Jordi Hays?

  1.5 T. A big T.

• 1:20:18John Coogan?

  That's how much value the man's created.

• 1:20:21Jordi Hays?

  Capital T.

• 1:20:21John Coogan?

  I was, I was trying to run the numbers and I was like.

• 1:20:23Jordi Hays?

  Anybody that creates a trillion dollar company should wear at least a million dollar watch as their daily driver.

• 1:20:29John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:20:29Jordi Hays?

  Period. Arguably should be.

• 1:20:30John Coogan?

  If you adjust just for his wealth. I don't know if you can find a watch, maybe on Timu. If you're, if you make a hundred thousand dollars, the equivalent watch as percentage of income is like a five cent watch.

• 1:20:45John Coogan?

  Like he's spent.

• 1:20:46Jordi Hays?

  Zuck is at a, Zuck is at a point where I would actually like to see him utilizing the real estate on actually both.

• 1:20:52John Coogan?

  Both watches. Yeah. And also you gotta ice this out.

• 1:20:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:20:56John Coogan?

  He should, he should definitely be icing this out. Flood it with.

• 1:20:58Jordi Hays?

  Ice out the handmade.

• 1:21:00John Coogan?

  With the top tier diamonds.

• 1:21:01Jordi Hays?

  Flood it.

• 1:21:02John Coogan?

  Flood that.

• 1:21:03Jordi Hays?

  No lab grown diamonds.

• 1:21:04John Coogan?

  No, no, no, no.

• 1:21:05Jordi Hays?

  Straight from the earth.

• 1:21:07John Coogan?

  Exactly. The most expensive.

• 1:21:09Jordi Hays?

  Organic, farm to table diamonds.

• 1:21:10John Coogan?

  It's gotta be in the 10, 50, get into a hundred million. Make, make the, uh, make the, the, what, what's the watch phrase? The hallucination. You gotta make that look like a Casio.

• 1:21:22Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Yeah. Make it look like a Casio.

• 1:21:24John Coogan?

  Okay. So the Grubel Forsey handmade one. It's a 43.5 millimeter in white gold. It represents the pinnacle of old world watchmaking techniques in a modern era. Priced well into the hundreds of thousands of dollars, often cited around or above 800,000. I saw one for sale for 906,000. Interestingly.

• 1:21:42Jordi Hays?

  Giving it away.

• 1:21:43John Coogan?

  Interestingly, there was a news article that said it was $900,000 watch. I found it for 906. Let's put him in the true zone. I want a community note.

• 1:21:51Jordi Hays?

  Community note.

• 1:21:52John Coogan?

  I want a community note on it.

• 1:21:55John Coogan?

  There are only two or three produced each year within the realm of hot horology or high horology. It occupies a level of craftsmanship, exclusivity and finish that sets it apart from either, from even from other superlative luxury watches. There's incredible rarity. Only two to three pieces made per year. Each requires 6,000 hours of handiwork.

• 1:22:17Jordi Hays?

  It's crazy too, because now every product manager in the valley is going to be trying to get this watch.

• 1:22:23John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:22:23Jordi Hays?

  And the question will become, are they going to increase their allocations? Because, you know, uh, there, there's going to be people banging down the door saying, please make this watch. I work at, I work at Uber. I'm a product manager. I make a couple of hundred thousand dollars a month. I want, you know, a nice piece that I can wear to work. Uh, and yeah, so.

• 1:22:45John Coogan?

  Have you seen the other Grubel Forsees?

• 1:22:49John Coogan?

  They're incredible.

• 1:22:51Jordi Hays?

  The, the non, the non handmade.

• 1:22:54John Coogan?

  So, no, no, no. Uh, they, I think they're all handmade.

• 1:22:56Jordi Hays?

  Well, they're all handmade, but handmade one is, is the specific model.

• 1:23:00John Coogan?

  Look at this one, dude. It has a, it has a physical model of the world. It's like three dimensional. You, you gotta look this up. We'll put a picture up on the video, but, um, it, it has a picture of the world that rotates to show you like what time it is across the world.

• 1:23:16Jordi Hays?

  That's wild.

• 1:23:16John Coogan?

  So amazing.

• 1:23:18Jordi Hays?

  Incredible.

• 1:23:18John Coogan?

  It's incredible, but.

• 1:23:19Jordi Hays?

  Traditional method, over ninety-five percent of the parts are fabricated using centuries old, fully manual techniques, making it distinct from even most hand-finished pieces.

• 1:23:27John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:23:28Jordi Hays?

  Time-intensive components, the escapement lever alone can take one and a half months to create.

• 1:23:32John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:23:33Jordi Hays?

  Uh.

• 1:23:34John Coogan?

  Three, the, three years of full-time work go into producing each watch. An incredible investment in time. So these are very rare, fewer than three pieces per year. One of the rarest series-produced watches in the world, typically quoted around eight hundred K, ninety-five percent handmade. Aside from the sapphire crystals, pivot jewels, gaskets, strap spring, bars, and the mainspring, every single part is executed by hand. And have you ever seen any of these videos breaking down like how these individual independent watchmakers work? It's like, they actually have every single tool, like, and they need to like file down, oh, oh, we need a gear.

• 1:24:10Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:24:11John Coogan?

  Let's make it from scratch. It's crazy. The escapement lever.

• 1:24:14Jordi Hays?

  That's like with us.

• 1:24:15John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:24:15Jordi Hays?

  Podcasting, we need a new microphone.

• 1:24:18John Coogan?

  Make it from scratch.

• 1:24:18Jordi Hays?

  Let's make it from scratch.

• 1:24:19John Coogan?

  We really should get some like extremely rare handmade. There, there are some cra- actually, one of my friends from high school, his dad, that was their business. They made, uh, handmade microphones for record, recording artists.

• 1:24:33Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:24:33John Coogan?

  And when you listen to like, you know, oh, like, yeah, like the Rolling Stones use this microphone.

• 1:24:38Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:24:38John Coogan?

  And it's just like, actually like the top tier. That was like his, uh, high school job was like helping assemble stuff.

• 1:24:44Jordi Hays?

  Very cool.

• 1:24:45John Coogan?

  It has a turbine and train wheels that take six hundred times longer to produce, uh, than on a standard watch.

• 1:24:51Jordi Hays?

  Think in the era of just AI slot products, these like ultra, ultra handmade, like it will become cool again for somebody to say.

• 1:24:58John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:24:59Jordi Hays?

  And a handmade wine bottles, right?

• 1:25:00John Coogan?

  And, and, and this is why you can't write this off as just like, oh, it's just rich guy shit. Because Zuck is a technologist and watchmaking is in some way a pinnacle of technology. Like, we didn't have the ability to make this. It's just mechanical. It's not computer science. But there's something that's, when you look at a really fine handmade watch, you're, you're realizing like an expertise in craftsmanship that you want to bring to, yes, even the ad platform software. Like, that, that's the same, same concept. The dial and finishing, the minute track and seconds subdial are executed in true fired enamel,

• 1:25:43John Coogan?

  requiring multiple firings at 800 degrees Celsius. The silver bridges, known as malacourt in French, they feature a frosted finish achieved by repetitive dabbing with a stiff wire brush. The copper content gives these bridges their soft golden hue. Mirror polishing, every bridge and wheel includes expertly polished bevels. Many feature sharp inward angles which are extremely challenging to master. Each screw goes through 12 different manual steps and can require around eight hours to produce. Finishes vary between black polish and fired blue steel. All color matched meticulously.

• 1:26:22John Coogan?

  Incredible. A one-minute tourbillon made of 69 parts. The tourbillon, I gotta get a tourbillon watch for sure. Yeah.

• 1:26:31John Coogan?

  Originally, I, I believe the tourbillon was designed to offset the, I think it was in pocket watches, maybe wristwatches too, but if your watch is sitting there at an angle, there's gravity on it in one direction.

• 1:26:43Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:26:44John Coogan?

  And so that would throw off the timekeeping. And so the tourbillon was spinning to offset that a little bit. Now, there's other ways to, to build a watch that keeps time more accurately, even in the mechanical realm. But the tourbillon is still just like a fascinating thing to look at. And with this watch, the tourbillon is actually exposed, so you can look at it from the, from the face, from the, from the dial.

• 1:27:08Jordi Hays?

  Incredible.

• 1:27:09John Coogan?

  Yeah, you gotta have screws that take at least eight hours to produce in your watch. Else what are you doing? The large balance is free sprung and adjusted in six positions. Beating at three hertz, the hairspring is shaped by hand to include an overcoil, minimizing positional air. Has a 60-hour manual wind, which is quite robust, given the large tourbillon assembly. Golden chatons, traditional pocket watch style chatons, hold each pivot jewel an homage to 19th century techniques, while also aiding in serviceability. And the base plate on the reverse side, features a gratte main or hand scraped finish. No two plates are identical. There's a ratchet wheel, a year plate, and name plate. Oh yeah, that's a really fun thing.

• 1:27:54Jordi Hays?

  So-

• 1:27:54John Coogan?

  It says the year that it was made on the face of the watch. And so, one in rose gold, one in white gold showcasing multi-metal accents. Each watch was also inscribed with a year and number, denoting its place among the two or three made that year. So you can instantly look at your watch and know exactly. It's kind of like with those, like the super rare sports cars, limited allocation, they will say, okay, this is number-

• 1:28:18Jordi Hays?

  Inscribed on the engine.

• 1:28:19John Coogan?

  Well, yeah, I mean, even, even for like, you know,

• 1:28:23John Coogan?

  like a somewhat limited run, like a Mercy Lago or something. People will look at the VIN and they'll track all the VINs. Are you familiar with like VIN Wiki? Have you seen this? Yeah, so people track down all the VINs and then they'll know, okay, there's 2,000 of these cars made. And then, a lot of times, people will track down the VINs and realize that there's actually a lot less of them than people thought. Because they crashed or they were sent overseas or something. And that can drive the value up. But something like this, you, you know, you look at the, you look at the, the number right on the watch to remind you of how exclusive it is. I love it.

• 1:28:56Jordi Hays?

  And the, the thing for me is, he, he clearly was very particular about choosing this watch for this announcement. You don't, you don't throw this on by chance. You don't wake up in the morning and say, oh, I'm gonna, you know- You don't, you're really, it's a very intentional decision, but with Zuck, it's thinking about all the watches that he could have, that he brushed over.

• 1:29:15John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:16Jordi Hays?

  And chose not to put on this morning. And I, and I want to know about those.

• 1:29:18John Coogan?

  Could've worn a Cubitus, completely different statement.

• 1:29:21Jordi Hays?

  Cubitus would have been quite the statement.

• 1:29:23John Coogan?

  Would have been quite the statement. Would have angered a lot of people.

• 1:29:26Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 1:29:26John Coogan?

  A lot of people wanted to see him throw on an FP Journe.

• 1:29:28Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 1:29:28John Coogan?

  Which he has, and it's beautiful, but.

• 1:29:30Jordi Hays?

  VC Braggs, you know, was talking about this.

• 1:29:32John Coogan?

  Wanted him to throw on the FP Journe, uh, but the FP Journe is, it's still an independent watchmaker, Francois Paul Journe's obviously a fantastic watchmaker, but it's a little bit more well-known.

• 1:29:42Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:43John Coogan?

  Than something like this.

• 1:29:44Jordi Hays?

  And this should just be a wake-up call for tech executives broadly.

• 1:29:47John Coogan?

  I agree.

• 1:29:48Jordi Hays?

  That you need to be taking clocks more seriously.

• 1:29:51John Coogan?

  Yes, yes.

• 1:29:52Jordi Hays?

  Take time more seriously.

• 1:29:54John Coogan?

  Yeah, this is the thing about a watch. People say.

• 1:29:56Jordi Hays?

  Even Elon, in many ways, talking about, you know, unregretted user seconds.

• 1:30:00John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:30:00Jordi Hays?

  He's really making a statement around clocks.

• 1:30:03John Coogan?

  Time.

• 1:30:03Jordi Hays?

  Watches and time.

• 1:30:04John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:30:05Jordi Hays?

  And, uh.

• 1:30:07John Coogan?

  A watch doesn't tell you the time of day. It tells you the time in your life. And so for him, what is this moment? Where is he in his life? He's at a point in his life.

• 1:30:17Jordi Hays?

  He just signed Dana White.

• 1:30:19John Coogan?

  Where he can wa, can wear something like this. And this, and this symbolizes where he's at in his life.

• 1:30:24Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:30:24John Coogan?

  And that's meaningful.

• 1:30:25Jordi Hays?

  Incredible place.

• 1:30:26John Coogan?

  That's meaningful.

• 1:30:27Jordi Hays?

  Making incredible signings.

• 1:30:29John Coogan?

  It's comparable only to itself. I love it. Epitomizes the devotion to genuine handmade craftsmanship. Nearly everything is done by traditional techniques, seldom seen in modern watchmaking. Are you okay?

• 1:30:42Jordi Hays?

  Uh, yeah, I think we just got an evacuation order, so probably got to hit the road.

• 1:30:48John Coogan?

  Okay. Well, it'll be a short episode.

• 1:30:50Jordi Hays?

  I mean.

• 1:30:51John Coogan?

  We will be on tomorrow.

• 1:30:51Jordi Hays?

  Not exactly, not exactly the shortest. I think we still clocked.

• 1:30:55John Coogan?

  Subscribe.

• 1:30:55Jordi Hays?

  Still clocked a couple hours.

• 1:30:56John Coogan?

  Follow us on X, follow us on YouTube, follow us on Spotify.

• 1:31:00Jordi Hays?

  Brothers, I'm sorry to cut the timeline out of this episode, but we'll be back tomorrow.

• 1:31:05John Coogan?

  And.

• 1:31:06Jordi Hays?

  In my defense, there's an evacuation order at my house.

• 1:31:09John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:31:09Jordi Hays?

  And I. Can't in good conscience.

• 1:31:12John Coogan?

  And we have some great polished pieces going out on X. These are the brother of the week award, the reply guy of the week award, the size gong, the personnel news. We've stopped doing those within the episodes. We record them before, we edit them down and they go out exclusively on X. They're exclusive clips on X. And so make sure you follow us there. Turn the notifications on and make sure you reply.

• 1:31:37Jordi Hays?

  There's a big, there's gonna be about 50 reply guys of the week this year.

• 1:31:43John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:31:43Jordi Hays?

  And many of those people will go on to join the Forbes list, to start trillion dollar companies, to raise mango seed rounds and do many great things, you know, to win the Kentucky Derby, right?

• 1:31:57John Coogan?

  We gotta do one from the timeline. We can't get out of here. This one is encouraging to you. You might be worried about your house burning down, but we're going to Josh Steinman and he's saying, good morning, we are going to win. And that's a great place to close it.

• 1:32:10Jordi Hays?

  Thank you, brothers. We'll see you tomorrow.

• 1:32:12John Coogan?

  Bye.