This ASX Sector Shouldn’t be Rising, But It Is: What’s going on?

In tonight’s Australian Stock Market Show, Dale, Filip and Pedro discuss why this specific ASX sector shouldn’t be rising... but it is.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  This podcast is brought to you by Wealth Within, a global leader in stock market education. For more information on our courses, head over to wealthwithin.com.au. Please note that the information in this podcast should not be considered personal financial advice. Enjoy.

• 0:19Speaker 01

  Something unusual is happening in the Australian share market. One sector is defying almost everything the economy is throwing at it, from higher interest rates to stubborn inflation and weakening consumer confidence. Yet investors are buying. So what are they seeing that the rest of the market might be missing? And could a major event just weeks away explain why this sector is suddenly attracting attention? With decades of combined market experience, nationally recognised and accredited stock market education and analysis featured across major Australian media, I'm Dale Gillam, joined by senior analyst Philip Tortevsky and Pedro Banyalies. And we are Wealth Within. Good evening, gentlemen.

• 1:01Speaker 02

  Good evening.

• 1:01Speaker 03

  Good evening.

• 1:02Speaker 01

  What a special night. I feel, hey.

• 1:04Speaker 02

  The man squad.

• 1:05Speaker 01

  And the man squad, the three boys.

• 1:06Speaker 03

  Manscaping today.

• 1:11Speaker 01

  You've preened and plucked everything, right? That's what you're telling me.

• 1:14Speaker 02

  I normally like to do that in my own.

• 1:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's too much information. They're laying back on the show. And what does he do, Phil? He brings the tone straight away.

• 1:22Speaker 02

  Back to Taiwan.

• 1:24Speaker 01

  Anyway, Australia's consumer discretionary sector has been showing signs of recovery despite economic conditions suggesting it should be struggling. The latest ABS figures show household spending fell 0.3 of a percent in August, while higher fuel costs continued squeezing consumers. But could investors be anticipating something much bigger? Donald Trump has predicted that oil prices will tumble after the November 3 US midterm elections, suggesting the conflict with Iran could end shortly afterwards. And he's already pursuing additional energy supplies, including an agreement to increase Russian diesel exports. Here's why that matters. The RBA estimates that a 10% increase in Australian retail

• 2:09Speaker 01

  fuel prices add slightly more than 0.3 percentage points to headline inflation over one or two quarters. If oil prices fall substantially, inflation pressures could ease, potentially improving expectations for interest rates. That could benefit discretionary stocks, while lower bond yields could also support heavily sold technology stocks. But is the market already pricing in an outcome that Trump may struggle to deliver? I'm going to go to you, Phil. You're a Trump expert.

• 2:40Speaker 02

  Oh, yes. I mean, look, if we take Trump for his word, he's said a lot of things that haven't come to fruition.

• 2:46Speaker 01

  Which word?

• 2:48Speaker 02

  Well, the one that's the most important one, but post-midterms, which is he has been very vocal about the fact that if he gets back in, the oil price will fly down post-midterms. Now, you know, you take him on his word for what he said about tariffs, that happened.

• 3:03Speaker 01

  Get him down now.

• 3:04Speaker 02

  Yeah. Well, I mean, look, there are, there are challenges with, with all of that right now. But the point is, if it does happen, and we're talking about, you know, 0.3% on a 10% move with oil, the oil price is up around 20% from, you know, those 60 cent lows up now in that dollar mark. So we could be wiping up, you know, wiping off 0.6 of that, you know, inflation metric in an instant. Because the last time ceasefire did happen, the oil price flew back down to 60 cents from a dollar.

• 3:35Speaker 01

  Yeah, it did.

• 3:35Speaker 02

  So I think that's the important metric to watch out for, because as you know, markets are always forward looking, which explains a little bit about why we're seeing this particular sector we're going to get into rising, despite everything being thrown at it right now, saying that it shouldn't.

• 3:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's a bit strange, isn't it? Well, anyway, let's hypothesize Trump wins in the midterms and delivers a substantial fall in oil prices after these midterms. Now, apart from discretionary sector or the discretionary sector, which other sectors could benefit the most? Now, I know you're a bit rusty, Pedro. You haven't been on the news for a long time. What are you thinking?

• 4:09Speaker 03

  But I have been doing research. And what I found actually is quite interesting, that out of 23 midterm elections, only three of those times, the sitting president has won. So 20 out of those times, the opposition has, has come in.

• 4:27Speaker 01

  Taken seats.

• 4:28Speaker 03

  Taken seats. So the odds are not with Donald Trump at the moment. But I do feel that possibly the, the public may want him to continue what he's already started over in the Middle East. So there could be a good chance that he wins. Now, if he does win, then of course, the tech sector with lowering oil prices will benefit, but also the material sector, because the material sector relies heavily on, on diesel, which is a big one to run all their machinery. So if we go to the chart, actually, we can show what the correlation is like between the information technology sector and the price of oil. So we've got the monthly chart on the left, weekly chart on the right. Let's expand out the monthly chart. We've got the price of oil there with the black line. And you can

• 5:13Speaker 03

  see that it's got an inverse correlation. Now, it's not a perfect science. Of course, there's going to be times where oil is rising while the technology sector is rising, yes. But there's other factors involved. But for the most part, as you can see here, oil price is rising, and it has been for a number of months now, while the technology sector has been falling. And of course, as we know, the technology sector relies heavily on, on funding and to, to provide that, that innovation. So at the moment, if we see this chart start to point down, the one of oil, then we could very much, very well likely see the, the chart of information technology point up.

• 5:52Speaker 01

  Wow. You know, if you said to me, you know, would oil and technology stocks be inverse correlation to each other, I probably would have said no. That's like, I mean, how do they correlate? You know what I mean? But obviously, there is a correlation there. It shows it on the chart, doesn't it?

• 6:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, certainly does.

• 6:06Speaker 01

  It is one of those strange anomalies that our market has. But we need to get into some stocks, Phil.

• 6:10Speaker 02

  Let's do it.

• 6:11Speaker 01

  So you're a Janine for tonight. So let's bring out the stocks.

• 6:13Speaker 02

  All right. Let's go. First one is Flight Centre. Now, we're going to dive into that discretionary space. And, you know, look, Flight Centre is, I didn't bring up the discretionary chart, but it has been rising. I mean, it's up about seven, eight percent of recent lows. And that, again, considering the higher rate environment, considering consumer spending and sentiment is down, consuming, considering where the economy is, an 8% move up is pretty significant.

• 6:39Speaker 01

  It is. I mean, you, like, the cost of living crisis, all of that, people worried about, and interest rates just went up again.

• 6:45Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 6:46Speaker 01

  Expectations of another interest rate rise before the end of the year and consumer discretionary spending going up.

• 6:52Speaker 02

  I think it also speaks to the fact that we have a lot of sectors on our market that have been beaten up. And when you do see that, you know, big sector beat up, like we saw in healthcare, at some point, regardless of conditions, they become very attractive.

• 7:05Speaker 01

  They're too cheap.

• 7:06Speaker 02

  You're right. They become very attractive. And if the market is looking forward and saying, well, okay, if we do get this dynamic in two weeks, maybe it's worthwhile taking the risk at these levels.

• 7:16Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, that's what they say, you know, buy with expectations. And look at what the forward looking thing, don't look at what happened, look at where it's going to go to.

• 7:23Speaker 02

  Exactly, yes.

• 7:24Speaker 01

  And the bargains could be right here.

• 7:26Speaker 02

  Yes. So let's get into that Flight Centre, because it's, obviously, they reported approximately 60 million in lost leisure profit from the Middle East disruption in the fourth quarter of financial year 26. Now, a lasting resolution makes, changes that picture drastically, could remove a measurable earnings headwind. When we look at what's happening with price action, it does resemble that. I mean, this market is really, not that it's really in freefall, but it's kind of very indecisive right now. It's potentially looking to find a bit of a base on that monthly chart, you know?

• 7:56Speaker 01

  Never recovered really after COVID, has it?

• 7:59Speaker 02

  Well, you've got to think what's been thrown at it. I mean, COVID, no travel. There's that aspect. And now, the fact that even after COVID, it was a bit jittery, which was like the world, throw on top that cost of living scenario. But at some point, we're talking about this stock being at $10.95. If you think the last time it was there, and I'll wind back the whole history, 10.95, you know, 2005 level prices.

• 8:23Speaker 03

  Wow. So I would also chuck in the AI, because I mean, when we're planning a trip, you can just put it everything, everything on ChatGPT, and it will just plan everything for you. So I think a lot of people.

• 8:35Speaker 01

  Book it all for you.

• 8:36Speaker 03

  Well, that's, yeah, probably you have to do that yourself.

• 8:38Speaker 01

  ChatGPT, I can't even say, I can't even say it, let alone spell it. But it might put you in a shonky hotel.

• 8:45Speaker 03

  Yeah, that's it.

• 8:46Speaker 02

  It could hallucinate.

• 8:47Speaker 03

  Weird hostel in Budapest.

• 8:49Speaker 01

  You know, it's like that friend of yours that doesn't really like you. And he said, when you go to this place, go and stay in that hotel. And when you get there, you're smelling the sewer out of the toilet.

• 8:57Speaker 03

  Yep.

• 8:58Speaker 01

  And all of that. This is what ChatGPT could do. I reckon it'd do that with me, because it's always leading me astray on something.

• 9:04Speaker 02

  Yeah. Look, I still think Flight Centre, just looking at that chart, to switch the topic quickly. It's, it's doing some things in terms of, you know, the selling is getting weaker. We're seeing some buying come through. I mean, if we do see a bit of an uptick through here, I don't mind the way it's looking at the moment. And, you know, there are those metrics out there, those techniques. I think it's the most important thing for traders when you're looking at this particular stock is how good are you at identifying that moment of reversal? Because that's often when the most profit does eventuate. And I would say, you know, just that book alone that you're going to show potentially at some point, has wonderful techniques to get that started. And right now, these are the kinds of stocks

• 9:46Speaker 02

  to be looking at, in my opinion, because we've got higher rate environment, we've got potentially people saying, okay, I can get 5% free money, free return. If I want to chase, if the index average of the market averages about seven or eight percent a year, how much risk am I taking for that extra 2%, 3%? Now, if I look at stocks like this that offer so much more upside, and I'm good at the technicals to determine those moments to, to get involved, they become very attractive. And 70% of our market, even 70% of the US market, is not like that AI. It's so concentrated. Everything else is, I would say, cheap at this point. So a lot of opportunity.

• 10:27Speaker 01

  I think there's a lot of cheap stock on our market. I mean, that setup that we're seeing on that chart right now, like, that excites me. You know, but you have to actually understand the market and understand patterns in the market, to understand why that's exciting.

• 10:40Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 10:41Speaker 01

  Because I guarantee we'd have people watching this going, why would you be talking about Flight Centre? It's a dog stock. And we get that every now and again. I see them in the comments, you know, why would you talk about this? It's a dog stock. Like, even last week, we talked about CSL. CSL shot up like a rocket in the last four, five, six weeks.

• 10:55Speaker 02

  Well, there's that, there's AOS, there's why would you look at mineral resources at 20 bucks? Why would you look at Cochlea? Why would you look at 360? Why would you look at Technology One?

• 11:04Speaker 03

  Well, we, we used to get, why aren't you looking at gold stocks? And then we look at them. And then we get, well, why are you looking at gold stocks?

• 11:12Speaker 01

  Oh yeah, it's just like, what do we know that somebody else doesn't know? And I'm not trying to, you know, toot our own trumpet or whatever, like blow their own horns. But the end of the day is you want to buy when nobody else is looking with the potential for that future. Cause you make money in the white space on the right of the chart. You don't make the money on the left hand side of the chart. That tells you what might happen on the white space. So I just, that, that pattern, I really do like it.

• 11:35Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 11:35Speaker 01

  So give me another really good one.

• 11:37Speaker 02

  All right, next up, we've got Harvey Norman now. I'm actually pretty excited about this one. This has good fundamentals along with the technical. So shares were down around thirty six percent year to date, despite Harvey Norman reporting a two percent increase in statutory net profit and an eight point six increase in adjusted profit for F Y twenty six. So that's what I mean. When you look at the, the fundamentals like P ratio and dividend yield, it's actually quite healthy. And if you are well versed in technical analysis, I mean, look at the way that this stock flows, right? A lot of people that come to us, I mean, I speak to students every day. And most of the time, what I'm seeing is that they want to derive income from the market, right? That you do get the long-term investors and that's fine.

• 12:19Speaker 02

  But most of them want to actually maybe go away from what their, their current job, or they're, they're just looking for a little bit of extra income. This is the type of stock that can offer that. And the way that it flows already, if you get a good strategy on this one, you're set to go. I mean, and you really only need to back test it and do some technical analysis to derive it once. And then that's it. I mean, you, you just let your rules play out. At the moment, I think that this one is sitting at a very critical level. Four dollars has traditionally been very important for, for Harvey Norman. You can go back to two thousand and one, the all time high there was at four dollars eleven. You go back to two thousand and nine, it was around, you know, four dollars thirty eight.

• 13:03Speaker 02

  And then you've got multiple times there where the, the stock hit that level right there. So at the moment, we are at that four dollars ten. It's still a falling knife, don't get me wrong. You know, you wouldn't just be buying it just because of the fundamentals or just because it's beaten down. But it's definitely the time to start looking at it because this is where you can form your strategy and get ready for when it does turn. Because then by the time that it's sitting at six dollars, then it comes out on the news. And then you're wondering, well, what did I miss? So this is the, definitely the, when you should be looking at it and start getting a strategy together.

• 13:36Speaker 01

  That makes, I mean, can I, I was just, we're at, we're at Micro Cap Conference today, right? And about two hours ago, I was chatting to one of our graduates, just not long graduated our course. And he said to me, he said, Dale, you know, when I came to do your course, I'd been trading for years and I thought I knew what I was doing. One of the biggest things that, that first time I spoke to one of your, your assessors and mentors, they said, you're gonna have to unlearn a lot of what you think you know. And he goes, he said, into this day, that resonates in my head. Cause he said, I had to unlearn a whole heap. And he said, now I look at things like these sorts of charts with a completely different outlook and I'm so much better at it. He said, I thought I actually knew what I was doing, but it wasn't until I actually unlearned that bad habits.

• 14:20Speaker 01

  And all those ways that everybody else was learning on these freebie sites and things like that, thinking I knew what I was doing. Now I actually know what I was doing. It was interesting conversation and that's really what you were talking about and what you were talking about in yours.

• 14:32Speaker 02

  Well, I find the, the best thing you can do is take away the emotions from trading. So, so most people, the, the biggest challenge is because that skillset's not there. It always tends down the path of getting emotional. Oh, you know, I wanted to take this trade or I, you know, jumped in on this one. But all of that speaks to, you don't really have a plan. And when you don't have a plan, not many good things can happen, regardless of what it is in life. So especially the market. And just on Pedro's point, I think it's very important, you know, our, in unemployment numbers came in recently, which we're going to get into shortly. But one of the big numbers that wasn't spoken about was the underemployment. So many people now are looking for a second job.

• 15:14Speaker 02

  And, and this is where I think something like understanding the market, understanding stocks, getting the right education, knowing which, because we've got so many cyclical stocks on our market. Like it's money for jam.

• 15:24Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 15:25Speaker 02

  So being able to trade these opportunities, that can fill that void for, for a lot of people looking. Because it's not easy just finding a second job. If you're gonna do that, you gotta learn all new skills. Well, that's the fastest way as opposed to, okay, I'm second job as a concreter. Well, you ain't gonna get it that quick.

• 15:42Speaker 01

  No, no.

• 15:43Speaker 02

  I don't know, maybe you will.

• 15:44Speaker 01

  Maybe you will, I don't know. Depends on whether you want to be a good one or not anyway. All right, but if you do want to learn some of the skills tonight, we talked about it. And Phil did allude to this book a little bit earlier. This is my first book, How to Beat the Fan, Manage Funds by Twenty Percent. If you want your copy, it's free, you just gotta pay the shipping. The link is in the description below. We'll share with you how to buy and sell stocks, how to manage your portfolio properly, risk management, and a whole lot of other things. As I said, the link is in the description below. I've paid for the book to be printed, so all you gotta do is pay for it to get to you. Anyway, stick around because we've still got more stocks to cover. And if you want the deeper analysis behind the moves, our YouTube members get the full picture each week. Key market index analysis, sector strength, individual stock opportunities,

• 16:26Speaker 01

  and advanced market rotation analysis, designed to uncover where momentum could be shifting next. Here's a quick look.

• 16:33Speaker 02

  There were clues that the market was failing. Now we've broken through the momentum and we're walking into that eighty eight, eighty seven hundred level.

• 16:41Speaker 04

  You're right, stocks had a little bit of a, a dampening of their rise. We've got a little bit of a reversal happening here.

• 16:49Speaker 02

  No surprise, oil, energy, up two point three nine percent. But look at our sector, it's performing another one of these compressions right now.

• 16:58Speaker 01

  Well, that's just a taste of our dedicated weekly market rap plus bonus extension content and additional stock opportunities you won't see in our free YouTube shows. It's all available to our YouTube members. But now let's get into our trending topic for this week. Now, Phil, I think you've taken the mantle from Janine.

• 17:15Speaker 02

  Ah, yes, I'm gonna have to step in today. So could the Reserve Bank actually crash Australia's economy while trying to save it from inflation? With interest rates at a fifteen year high and unemployment already rising? That warning from the chief economist of our biggest bank, what does this all signal for our market? Commonwealth Bank's chief economist, Luke Yeerman, has warned further rate rises could push Australia into recession, particularly as the full impact of the four increases this year hasn't yet flowed through the economy. And he has a point. Unemployment is now at four point seven percent, its highest in almost five years, with employment falling by around thirty nine thousand people in September alone. But now the R B A has a different argument and it's an interesting one.

• 17:59Speaker 02

  The R B A argues that higher interest rates aren't just about squeezing mortgage holders. They can make Australian investments more attractive to overseas investors, potentially strengthening the Australian dollar. A stronger dollar makes imports cheaper, including fuel, helping to bring inflation down. In fact, the R B A's own modeling suggests the exchange rate could account for as much as two thirds of the impact interest rates have on inflation and economic growth. But higher rates don't guarantee a strong dollar. This could backfire. And if the dollar rises, it could make Australian exports more expensive for overseas buyers, hurting businesses, economic growth and potentially employment. Now, the R B A's real concern is inflation becoming entrenched. But I wonder whether this current focus on the exchange rate is also preparing Australians

• 18:44Speaker 02

  for even higher interest rates. Are we potentially solving one problem with creating another one? And here's something we shouldn't ignore. Unemployment was four point seven percent in September two thousand and six, exactly where it stands today. It later fell to around four percent in two thousand and eight before climbing to five point nine percent by June two thousand and nine. Remember, unemployment is a lagging indicator, meaning economic damage can already be underway before the numbers reveal it. The R B A was still raising rates in two thousand and eight despite growing economic risks. Today, we face another unknown, A I and its impact on jobs.

• 19:22Speaker 02

  Meanwhile, unemployment has already reached the four point seven percent the R B A previously forecast for late two thousand and twenty seven. So is Commonwealth Bank recognizing risk the R B A is underestimating? The R B A fears inflation becoming entrenched while C B A fears higher rates could trigger a recession. Now, the danger is that by the time the R B A realizes it's gone too far, the damage may already be done. Just a bit of a summary.

• 19:52Speaker 01

  I was gonna say, what's the positive part of it?

• 19:54Speaker 02

  Yeah, I was gonna say. Yeah, look, I think the story in 2027 is gonna be the employment story.

• 20:01Speaker 01

  Oh, look, I think it will, and you are, it's underemployment, but it's also people in part-time jobs that would want full-time jobs, but they can't get full-time jobs.

• 20:10Speaker 02

  And that's not just because they can't, it's because businesses are slowing down.

• 20:15Speaker 01

  Correct, they are. A lot of business people I talk to are slowing down, they're not employing people. They're using AI instead, or they're going to AI rail and employ somebody, because literally, if you, if you get rid of two employees that you don't need because of AI, you've probably saved anywhere between $200,000 and $300,000.

• 20:32Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 20:32Speaker 01

  That's huge.

• 20:34Speaker 03

  Yeah, I mean, I've also heard of tradies going to work on government sites because they can earn more money and work less.

• 20:40Speaker 01

  I know some of them.

• 20:41Speaker 03

  Yep, so that's another issue, that the government won't stop their spending on infrastructure, and unfortunately, they're eating up all the good tradies.

• 20:52Speaker 01

  Well, that was the argument I had on Ticket TV two weeks ago, I'm on tomorrow morning, so if you're checking it out, check out Ticket TV tomorrow, Phil and I are on it every week on a Wednesday morning. And that was my argument, it was all about interest rates, because it was the few days, the four days before the interest rate rose. I'm saying, the RBA's got no choice but to put them up because the government won't stop spending.

• 21:14Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 21:14Speaker 01

  You can't sort of rein it in, it's like, you know, trying to rein your wife in with a credit card. It's like, go shopping, dear, how do you rein that in? It's like, interestingly, how the government keeps blaming the RBA, and Jim Chalmers has done it a few times, and I think, I don't think we've had a worse treasurer, I can't remember seeing a worse treasurer than Jim Chalmers.

• 21:34Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 21:35Speaker 01

  And that's big for me to say, because I generally don't get political, but like, seriously, I think we've got the worst federal government we've ever seen, and we've definitely got the worst state government we've seen in Australia, in Victoria. It's terrible, so, but things have to change, because we can't keep it the way they are.

• 21:50Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 21:50Speaker 01

  Unemployment will keep rising.

• 21:52Speaker 03

  Exactly.

• 21:52Speaker 01

  And interest rates are rising.

• 21:54Speaker 02

  Yeah, and you can't just put, as you said, the whole onus on the RBA, because they cannot fix this problem.

• 21:58Speaker 01

  They've just got a hammer, that's all they've got.

• 22:00Speaker 03

  Yep.

• 22:01Speaker 02

  You can't fix an overseas supply shock from oil, you can't fix a government that is taxing people to the hilt, not promoting. Like, they talk about this productivity issue, I've heard this, you know, productivity, productivity, but there's no incentive. All the entrepreneurs are saying, why would I take the risk here when I'm gonna get, there is no incentive for me to take the risk.

• 22:20Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 22:20Speaker 02

  So that's the problem, not productivity.

• 22:22Speaker 01

  Yep. Business people are saying, why would I, I wouldn't start a new business today, I've seen so many people saying those sort of things, and a lot of business people moving out of Australia and saying, no, I'm just gonna close down operations.

• 22:33Speaker 03

  It's unfortunate.

• 22:34Speaker 01

  You know, especially in Victoria, which is a shame, so hopefully we have a good election in, I think it's 40 days, I could be celebrating, but anyway, if you want the skills to analyse stocks, just like you've seen tonight, visit our website, wealthwithin.com.au, but now it's time to get back into our topic, and some more amazing stocks that the boys have. Now, I'm gonna go to you first, Pedro.

• 22:53Speaker 03

  All right.

• 22:53Speaker 01

  What have you got for us?

• 22:54Speaker 03

  Yeah, I've got Kogan, this is one that's been on the show a lot of times, T K G N, so let's get on to the chart and see what's going on. So, like I said, it's been a stock that's been on our show, and a lot of people, a lot of, you know, viewers have asked about it, and unfortunately, it's a stock that has failed to really break away. However, the low of $2.60 has been a very important level for this stock, and it's at that level now. So, the company returned a statutory profitability in FY26, yet shares continue to struggle.

• 23:36Speaker 03

  A stronger consumer could provide an additional catalyst alongside the company's existing operational recovery. So, if you guys don't know, Kogan, it is an online-only retailer, so they don't have all the overheads that the other retailers have to go through, so they can offer cheaper prices. They do offer some pretty nice products, like their TVs and stuff, they've got their own brand. But really, it's been failing to break above that $5, $5 has really been a bit of a roof for Kogan, but $2.60 to $3 has been a nice floor for it.

• 24:14Speaker 03

  So, every time that it bounces off that $2.60, it does go up to the tune of, if I get the price retracement. So, the first time it went up around 160%, so it's a nice little rise. However, you need to get a nice rule around there and a nice trading strategy. The last time, it went up 68%. So, you know, will it do that again? And it looks like small moves on the chart, but relatively, it is a nice, big, heavy move. So let's go to the weekly chart.

• 24:48Speaker 01

  Small compared to the prior moves that it made.

• 24:49Speaker 03

  Exactly, yes, the primary moves, if you move back, and I'll go to the monthly chart for that one to highlight what Dale was talking about. If we go back to, you know, COVID, after COVID, we're talking about a stock that could realistically rise 640% basically. So, even though it may not do that again, it still offers some little short-term opportunities to trade, and you can get, eke out a few little profits out of it along the way. But I'd be looking at the weekly chart for this one, just to see those movements. It does look like it's been sold off quite heavily on big volume as well.

• 25:25Speaker 01

  Couple of stocks a little.

• 25:26Speaker 03

  It's consolidating, isn't it? It is, yeah, the market's been a little bit, I think, scared, I think that there's a bit of indecision because of the midterms that are coming up, a bit cautionary, but like we were saying, after the midterms, that's when maybe the floodgates may open, and the market takes a bit of a breather.

• 25:45Speaker 01

  Well, look, I'd rather buy stuff from Kogan than Amazon everything, every single day. If I've gotta buy something, I might as well go to Kogan and get the same product from an Australian retailer.

• 25:54Speaker 03

  Yep.

• 25:55Speaker 01

  Where I know the profits are gonna stay here than try and support a big American conglomerate that

• 25:59Speaker 03

  Makes sense.

• 26:00Speaker 01

  really doesn't give a crap about Australia, but anyway, that's my thinking anyway, that's my other gripe for today.

• 26:06Speaker 02

  Two?

• 26:06Speaker 01

  You can do, I've had two now.

• 26:07Speaker 02

  One more.

• 26:11Speaker 02

  All right.

• 26:12Speaker 01

  Next stock.

• 26:12Speaker 02

  Super Retail Group, now, this one here, despite growing sales, we'll just get through. Despite growing sales in financial year 26, the company's underlying profitability declined as higher operating costs and softer consumer demand weighed on performance. Falling fuel prices and improved housing spending could help restore margins and support growth. Across Super Cheap Auto, Rebel, people don't know that they've also got Rebel, Sport, BCF.

• 26:38Speaker 01

  Mac Pack, I was surprised with that. I go into Super Cheap Auto, I had to buy some new wiper blades for my car, and I'll tell you what, the service I got was amazing.

• 26:45Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah, yep.

• 26:46Speaker 01

  Really good, really nice guys, and they did everything, and they had to order them in, because I've got a strange car evidently.

• 26:54Speaker 02

  But the good thing about this, the way this stock has unfolded, it speaks to that, what you're saying, because stocks that have been around over 20 years, when you see the share price consistently making higher bases, going higher over time, that speaks to really good management or a really good product.

• 27:11Speaker 01

  Correct, yeah.

• 27:12Speaker 02

  And sensible management, being able to consistently outperform for their shareholders. And we're talking about a stock that recovered during COVID, that's had periods of tough times, it's gone through the GFC. And so, right now, when I look at this, it really speaks to me of a stock that is going through one of its deflationary periods, and at some point in that, they have proven that they can get through that. And just a simple technique like from your book, Dale, it's a very, you know, loose example of it, but just a simple technique like that can really give you, I guess, the first point. You know, you look and you see, okay, buyers have really come through at this level, that's the first tick. Now, the next part to trading this correctly is, okay, how do I get in?

• 27:53Speaker 02

  And then, more importantly, how do I get out? And how do I work this white space to identify where my upside is? They're the things you need to tick off as a trader. But right now, what's happening, I mean, really nice buying through July, sellers tried to get through in September, and buyers have said no during October, considering, if you think September and October, what the market's doing, it got slaughtered. So, this one, out of all of them, right now, is shaping up pretty interestingly for me.

• 28:18Speaker 01

  This is like the bloke's dream stock, isn't it, you know?

• 28:22Speaker 02

  Super cheap.

• 28:22Speaker 01

  Fishing and cars, that just needs a hardware shop in there.

• 28:25Speaker 03

  That's it.

• 28:26Speaker 01

  And it's fine, we've got the trifecta.

• 28:28Speaker 03

  And to make you a profit.

• 28:29Speaker 01

  And to make you a profit, and that sort of stuff, but it is, like, buyers will spend a lot of money on their fishing, and their cars, so they're pretty good, you know, like I say, in a recession, always have shoe stores, because people still always need shoes, you know, so, but guys won't give up their fishing, like, women won't give up their lipstick, probably. I don't know about that, anyway. So we've got another stock, haven't we, Pedro?

• 28:49Speaker 03

  We do too, so last up, we have PMV, that's Premier Investment Group. So, the company reported weaker underlying earnings in FY26 as consumer spending remained under pressure. A recovery in household confidence and lower living costs could help lift sales across Peter Alexander and Smiggle, supporting an earnings rebound. So, another good store, Peter Alexander, you know, you need it for a good night's sleep. Get your pyjamas?

• 29:20Speaker 01

  Pyjamas, yep.

• 29:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, I don't know, in this environment, you're buying Peter Alexander.

• 29:23Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 29:25Speaker 02

  I think people would happily go with Target.

• 29:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, mate, I'm happy with that.

• 29:28Speaker 03

  They're looking very similar these days.

• 29:29Speaker 01

  Figured if I'm not going outside, I'm fine.

• 29:32Speaker 03

  But looking at the technicals on this one. Looking at the technicals on this one, very similar in the way that it has unfolded in a long-term bullish pattern, similar to Super Retail Group. But unlike Super Retail Group, and Phil, you know, put just a very simple momentum on it, you know, the same you could do with Premier Investments, but you can see that it has broken well below it. So at the moment, this is a stock that has been sold off quite heavily. However, this could be the final blow off. And I say that because there's been a lot of price agreement around that $10 to $12.

• 30:14Speaker 03

  In the past, it's been, you know, met with a lot of buying and selling, so buyers could come back around this zone. So when we go to the weekly chart, that's where really we'll get that confirmation. At the moment, it is up. It's up to the tune of around 22% from the low, which is pretty good. Let's see if they can sustain that. Right now, that's not a confirmed bottom yet. We do need to see a few more things happening with Premier Investments, but I don't mind it. It's the first start to maybe a possible long-term uptrend.

• 30:46Speaker 01

  Well, it could be, and this is where, you know, like I saw the GFC, and I lived through it all, and I obviously lived through the 87 crash as well. And in those times, everything was going up. But how many stocks on our market right now that we could name that are down 20 to 50% and some of them even a lot more than that, off their highs? There is just an absolute bucket load of them, you know, and even like I mentioned, CSL earlier, it's gone up 20, 30, 40% or something, but it's still way off its all-time high. We've seen most of the banks are down 25 to 30% on what their more recent highs are. So when people are saying, you know, the market's going to crash, I'm going, well, it's already down.

• 31:27Speaker 01

  There's so many stocks down 20 or 30%, what are they going to crash to? You know, because a crash generally, we see lots of crashes around 50% on the marketplace, even though the market's been moving up slowly. But that's where I'm looking at, thinking, well, maybe we've still got another boost out of this market. Moving on, shortly, we're going to get to answering your questions in our member section, so stick around for that. But now it's time to get into our hot stock tip for the week, and you've been charged with this, Pedro. And Phil, sitting on that chair all the time, Phil tells me he's going to beat you every time.

• 31:58Speaker 03

  Yeah, right. Well, it looks like, yeah.

• 32:00Speaker 01

  Better give me a ripper.

• 32:01Speaker 03

  I've been away for so long, I've been dealt all the workload today, but let's go for it. So hot stock for this week is Reis Pharmaceuticals, which had some big news come out today. And Reis Pharmaceuticals has reported encouraging results from its Phase 3 diabetic foot infection trial with 75 patients showing promising outcomes and a positively safe profile. An independent committee will now assess whether its treatment outperformed the placebo with recommendations expected by mid-November. This is positive news, but the treatment's effectiveness remains unconfirmed. Let's get into the chart.

• 32:39Speaker 03

  So Reis Pharmaceuticals actually had a nice bounce from that news, and it's usual for these types of healthcare stocks, when they've received that FDA approval, they usually, you know, have a nice little bounce. I remember Mesoblast doing something similar in the past, and that actually kept on going. So keep that in mind, because this could actually be the start of a prolonged rise rather than a simple move to the upside, because it also comes at an interesting level for RCE. So around that low of 30 cents has been a very important level. It bounced right from it.

• 33:21Speaker 03

  So the question is, was this stock always going to bounce from this level? You know, did it really need this news? And that's what we're always saying to traders and to our students, that you can actually predict what a stock will do regardless of the news. You don't need to be waiting for all this news to come out, FDA approvals and so on. You just look at the chart, the chart will tell you. And this is a classic example, that level was always going to be important for Reis. It is important to note that it has been in a long-term downtrend. It still needs to find its legs. We're not out of the woods yet, but it's definitely promising. And I'll just finish up by just noting what happened in this period, previous period here, 30th of May 2025. Have a look at this bar, very, very similar to what we saw.

• 34:05Speaker 03

  We did see a retest of the low, and then it traded up, and we were up to the tune of around that 120%. So good profits to be made, keep an eye on it, but don't jump in too early.

• 34:18Speaker 01

  It looks so much similar to some of the other stocks we've had a look at, isn't it? Moved up in 2025, moved right back down in 2026. You know, so our market was bullish at the start of this year, then we've had a bearish patch. So, you know, I think, look, right now, I want to ask you what you think the end of the year will look like. You know, to me, October, November, December, January, February, March, that sort of period in our market is generally more bullish than bearish. We generally rise up to a peak somewhere in February, maybe March. So what are we thinking at the moment? So what are you thinking, Phil?

• 34:49Speaker 02

  Look, I would love it if you asked me this question after midterms, but I think it really banks on that. I mean, if midterms, Trump stays in, stays to his word, and the oil price comes flying down, I think we have an awesome end to the year.

• 35:02Speaker 03

  Yep.

• 35:03Speaker 02

  Because materials flies, and that's a big push sector on our market. So, yeah, without that, I mean, there's the big overhang right now of the AI spend story, which that plays into a lot. So from a seasonal perspective, it looks like we could, if we don't get good news coming post-midterms, then I think our market could be stuck for a little while longer, because our materials are lagging right now, and they've been the driver of the push. And the way they've sold off, to me, could be, yeah, could get a little worse if we don't see a bit of some strong buying coming in the next two months.

• 35:38Speaker 01

  There must be that seat, Pedro. The person who ever sits in that seat always says, there could be this or it could be that. They never, ever make an opinion, go, it's going to do this, this is what I'm going, bang, bang. They're never committed, are they?

• 35:51Speaker 02

  It must be rubbing off. Look, I think I've given up. In my time, yeah.

• 35:57Speaker 01

  What do you think, Pedro?

• 35:58Speaker 03

  Well, look, just the way that the market is unfolding, and we look at the oil lords every week, and we look at the levels, 8,800 has been a very strong level for our stock market, for the oil lords, and it's really finding some good support at that level. It hasn't broken through it. Coming into November, December being a very bullish month, I think that the market will actually pick up by the end of the year.

• 36:22Speaker 01

  That's what I'm looking for, Phil.

• 36:25Speaker 03

  I think that, I mean, we see the consumer discretionary sector coming up. I agree that the materials has been sold off quite heavily, but that may actually provide some opportunities for investors to come back in and pick up some really good stocks. So I'm actually quite positive on the market.

• 36:40Speaker 01

  Cool. Of the stocks we've covered, what's your pick?

• 36:44Speaker 03

  I have to go Super Retail Group. Oh, yeah, that's looking very nice.

• 36:48Speaker 01

  Blokey stock?

• 36:49Speaker 02

  Yep, all PMV. I mean, that discount that is there, like you said, it's so important. If you know what you're looking at, and our students know where it is right now, is, without giving too much away, something you should be watching.

• 37:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm with Phil anyway. Well, anyway, if you do want to know which stocks could power the robot revolution, and whether the biggest opportunities are hiding behind the robots themselves, join us in our member section, we're breaking it all down next.