Crypto Bill Blocked in Senate: What Happens Next?

This week, Filip Tortevski and Pedro Banales unpack the Crypto Bill blocked in the Senate and what could happen next for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. They explain why the vote failed, the possible paths forward, key technical levels to watch, and what investors should be paying attention to next.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  This podcast is brought to you by Wealth Within, a global leader in stock market education. For more information on our courses, head over to wealthwithin.com.au. Please note that the information in this podcast should not be considered personal financial advice. Enjoy.

• 0:20Speaker 01

  Welcome to another Talking Wealth podcast. You're on with Phil and Pedro. And today we are breaking down the hottest news in crypto land. Now, the US Senate has just blocked the crypto industry's biggest attempt yet to lock regulatory clarity into law. Bitcoin fell, crypto stocks were smashed. But was this really a rejection of crypto or simply another delay? We are going to answer that question. We're going to dive into what the Clarity Act is itself. We're going to break it all down in simple, simple terms because I know some of these Bitcoin stuff or crypto stuff can get a bit little confusing. And we're also going to dive into some charts to see what the hell is going on with price and whether or not it is telling us to get out the way or maybe an opportunity on the

• 1:05Speaker 01

  horizon. Pedro on that. Welcome, buddy.

• 1:09Speaker 02

  G'day, Phil. And can I say, we are actually going to provide some clarity around this subject. I noticed you missed putting that in your punchline. So I thought I'd add it in for you.

• 1:23Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, mate. You're always, I don't know how to score your jokes. They're not bad. They definitely fall under the category of dad jokes, but.

• 1:34Speaker 02

  But they're not going to get any better. I promise you that.

• 1:37Speaker 01

  Look, if you make one person laugh, that's the main thing, right?

• 1:41Speaker 02

  That's it. That's it. Even if it is myself, right?

• 1:45Speaker 01

  Awesome. All right. Well, mate, on that note, let's actually break down what happened. Obviously, we mentioned this is the hottest news that's come out in the last couple of days and has swung crypto markets worldwide. Now, what actually happened? So the Senate, well, I'll tell you what didn't happen. The Senate did not vote down the Clarity Act itself, which is what's been reported a lot, that it's been rejected and all that kind of stuff. What happened was it rejected CLO2, which I'll get into what that word means because we're getting a bit legal talk now, on the motion to proceed by 49 votes to 50, short of the three fifths threshold required to advance the legislation. Now, in simple

• 2:28Speaker 01

  English, if you're asking why, why are you talking like a lawyer, Phil? Basically, they were voting on whether to move forward with debating the bill. And there weren't enough votes to do it. So normally, what happens is they have a vote, whether they're going to debate something. And there you get those really nice funny clips of these people in Parliament acting like high school kids, begging each other and screaming and that. And we didn't get to that part. So that would have been nice to get to the fun part. But day off for them. Yeah.

• 2:59Speaker 02

  And that's what they bring in all those tech moguls and start to grill them. And

• 3:04Speaker 02

  that's the fun part.

• 3:05Speaker 01

  Well, that's the, that's a Senate hearing. That's, that's a little bit more advanced. Here, it's just, first, they start debating what's going on, you know, whether they should. But they didn't even get to that point. So that's really what's happened. If you're, if you're wondering, did they cancel the bill? What actually happened in simple terms? That's what it is. Now, the market reacted. Bitcoin fell about 4%. Coinbase and Circle fell around 9%. And so was this simply, I guess the big question is, was this simply another bad day for risk assets? Or did Washington just introduce a new problem specifically for crypto? And this is what I want to explore in this article, because if they have, it's a pretty

• 3:49Speaker 01

  big bloody problem. Regulation is something that crypto has been fighting with for a while. And it is the big dark cloud over this whole industry in that they have made advances on like, let's not, let's call it how it is. Simply when, you know, the institutional and took on Bitcoin, it became a real asset in a lot of eyes. I mean, hedge funds went in it, super went in it. And so crypto has had moves to regulate. It's also had, you know, stable, the stablecoin talk as well. But this was a rejection. And rejections matter. And rejections often are a step back. So I think it's important to, knowing what

• 4:34Speaker 01

  what happened, also ask the question, what is the Clarity Act? What is it trying to fix? So for years, one of the biggest problems in US crypto has been uncertainty around who regulates these markets. You've pretty much got the SEC, which is the securities market, and you've got CFTC, which is commodities and derivatives. Now, the SEC and the CFTC have already provided considerably more clarity in 2026. Their March interpretation lists assets include Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Ripple, Cardano as example of digital commodities. So they have made them a lot more mainstream. So the big issue isn't that America knows

• 5:19Speaker 01

  absolutely nothing about how crypto should be regulated. The bigger issue is that much of this framework still comes from the regulators rather than Congress. We still haven't had government backing. This has always been the big issue with crypto. A while back, I don't know if you remember, mate, you know, China banned it. And we are not, we are not yet to see the government go full, full backing on this, in this space. And so clarity, what the Clarity Act, what it attempted to do was to put a much broader market structure into actual law, covering things like regulatory responsibility, digital commodity markets, exchanges and intermediaries, registration, custody, disclosures, consumer protections.

• 6:04Speaker 01

  These are all very important things when you want to talk about trading in regulated, safe, strong markets. So.

• 6:10Speaker 02

  For me, if I can jump in, I mean, just from the information that, you know, that I've gathered now that you've put out, for me, it seems like Congress is really, they're worried about legitimizing these, these cryptocurrencies. And, you know, it's as a direct competitor to fiat. I mean, at the end of the day, a country needs to protect its own fiat currency. And they're, they're treating this very carefully, because if they start going through all these clarity acts and all of these kind of proper formal hearings, then that legitimizes these as proper alternative currencies. And that could be a problem for them. So maybe they might be buying some time. Maybe they're trying

• 6:55Speaker 02

  to see what how their stablecoin looks like, how they can put maybe their fiat into some type of blockchain or use the same technology. That to me just seems like, you know, that they're just a bit worried about, you know, how that would work.

• 7:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, that's, look, that's 100% interpretation of what this is. I mean, regulatory guidance can change. Legislation is much harder to change when it's implemented. But I also think the biggest, the bigger thing that governments have to worry about is like, these are very volatile assets. So what happens if we do legitimize all of this? Poor bunch, a whole bunch of money in this space, because it's much more legitimized, and something really bad goes wrong. Because, I mean, the way in current form, there has been many, many scams, there's been many, many dodgy things that goes on with the, in this space, that now you're talking about people's retirement funds. And that just

• 7:53Speaker 01

  adds a whole nother strain on governments, having to cover that load if something really bad goes wrong. Like, governments hate when, when stock markets crash. Why? Because now who's going to have to have to foot more pension money? Well, the taxpayer pays for it at the end of the day. Let's, let's be honest. But irrespective, it's a problem. And they don't want to take that risk just yet. So I think it's a big thing, you know, if, when, how, if and never, this is the biggest hurdle that, that the crypto people are looking to break into to really be legitimized through government, through law. And until

• 8:35Speaker 01

  that happens, I mean, I understand why the markets are being sold off at the moment.

• 8:39Speaker 02

  Absolutely. And also, I think that another aspect is what's going on with this whole AI story, you know, when you think about it, really, some guy created this, right? Apparently.

• 8:49Speaker 01

  Well, no one knows who he is. No one knows.

• 8:52Speaker 02

  Sissikamoshi, you know, yeah, nobody knows who he is, right? They gave him a Japanese name. Whether he's Japanese or not, I don't know. But somebody coded this or a group of people coded this. Right now, we're seeing a renaissance in coding using AI. Anybody can basically code. I mean, AI is coding better than a lot of high end coders. So what's stopping AI to create an alternative for this that's much better coded, much more security focused, you know, much better integrated into the blockchain? And then that just, you know, throws everything out. All of this work that they've done to legitimize Bitcoin and, you know, all of these things. And how do you, how do we know that that AI

• 9:34Speaker 02

  just doesn't break the whole system altogether? So, you know, that's, that's, I think that's a real risk.

• 9:41Speaker 01

  Yeah. And, and I mean, look, this is some of the reasons why they're saying, informally, why Washington couldn't agree. So ethics and political conflicts. So some Democrat, Democratic senators argued that the legislation needed tougher ethics, restrictions surrounding public officials' involvement in crypto, including one man called President Donald Trump's crypto interest.

• 10:07Speaker 02

  Yeah, but let's not worry about that.

• 10:10Speaker 01

  Nah, nah, nah. The legislation was revised substantially before the vote, but disagreement remained over whether those safeguards went far enough. And that makes sense to me. There is, I've never seen in my lifetime, no, I'm not that old, but I've never seen in my lifetime there be such a conflict of interest. Uh, or, um, like if, if this was anybody else, you would, you could get done dramatically for, um, there are things like, you know, what most people get done for, and not specifically insider trading, but like, he, he, his sons are directly involved running these, these crypto businesses.

• 10:54Speaker 01

  And the president has the power to some degree, um, to really affect what happens. And they, yeah, I, I get the, the ethical conflict 100%.

• 11:07Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 11:07Speaker 01

  So, um, I'm not gonna get, you know, I won't need to say too much more about that. But the, the second battle is consumer protection, which I think we touched on earlier. So, uh, DeFi and illicit finance. So I'll, I'll, I'll basically explain this. Supporters of Clarity, uh, the Act, uh, argue that the legislation would bring crypto into a clearer regulated framework. Yeah, fair enough. With registration, disclosure and stronger enforcement mechanisms. Now, the opponents have argued there are still potential gaps involving consumer protection, illicit finance and elements of decentralized finance. So it's not, you know, one side is supporting crypto, the other one's opposing.

• 11:49Speaker 01

  They're, they're all also arguing about what the regulatory system should actually look like. And I agree, uh, my personal opinion. Consumer protection, illicit finance, which we know are an issue already.

• 12:03Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 12:03Speaker 01

  And, and the elements of decentralized finance, which when you think about what the world's, where the world is heading, um, it's all about transparency. And if this world i- is not. And, and so, um, it's been hard to tax, it's been hard to track. The money that's coming in and out through this, uh, avenue has not always been clean. Um, and consumers have had terrible experiences in the process in, in all forms. Uh, so you, you can't regulate something like this unless that's fixed up. I'm sorry. That's my opinion.

• 12:47Speaker 02

  Oh, absolutely, absolutely. And you know, we can bring in the, the dark web into this and all of the stuff. I mean, I've watched documentaries on it, the stuff that, uh, has been bought and sold using cryptocurrencies through the dark web. How can you legitimize something like that? Uh, you know, when, when you use a normal, um, fiat currency and you're using your credit card or something that you can track that to a certain person, uh, that's, that's buying either firearms or, or illicit, uh, you know, substances or materials in the, in, in the dark web, but using, uh, cryptos, you can't track that. So that's basically legitimizing this, this dark market. Uh, it's basically saying, you know what, it's fine.

• 13:28Speaker 02

  You, you, you guys, you know, you can keep on using this, uh, this decentralized, um, currency to do whatever you want and we can't track it. So I, I think that that's a big one, uh, definitely. It's, um, that, that DeFi and like you said, the, um, the, um, illicit finance a- as well.

• 13:48Speaker 01

  Now, this is probably the biggest battle that's going on. Um, the Senate Banking Committee version specifically addressed the stablecoin rewards. So it would prohibit passive deposit-like interest or yield on payment stablecoin balances. I'll read that again. It would prohibit passive deposit-like interest on yield or payment stablecoin balances while allowing certain genuine activity of tran- or transaction-based rewards under rules established by regulators. Um, now the banks argue, and I, and this will get, make a lot more sense. The banks, uh, uh, will, uh, argue that if Americans can move cash into stablecoins

• 14:33Speaker 01

  and receive attractive rewards outside the banking system, deposits could leave traditional banks.

• 14:41Speaker 02

  Oh, imagine lending, that, that, the effect on lending.

• 14:44Speaker 01

  Well, that was my next point. Deposits help fund bank lending.

• 14:48Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 14:49Speaker 01

  Yeah. So suddenly this isn't just crypto versus regulators. It's potentially traditional banking system versus an entirely new financial infrastructure. Um, and so Reuters reported intense lobbying from both the banking and crypto industries over precisely this issue. So, uh, you know, is this a real fight here, uh, going on about who owns American deposits? And, uh, I think it's fair to, to, to, to say that this is what's going on. This is a, a, a serious question and a serious battle. Um, and if it is, well,

• 15:24Speaker 01

  I think the world needs to be very careful about the next move that it makes or what choice it chooses. And so far we've had the vote being pushed back. So, uh, the traditional system has won, um, for now. And, and, uh, yeah, I'm, I don't hate that.

• 15:42Speaker 02

  Yeah, me, me either, me either. You know, it reminds me, I, I saw something the other day. This is guy in Australia here that goes around interviewing people on the street. I'm not sure if you've seen him. His, his name starts with sick and I can't say that the second part because it's probably a little bit, you know, uh, that he goes around interviewing people. And he interviewed this, this young, these two young kids and they're, they're all trying to push cryptocurrencies. And he's pushing them, you know, saying, all right, you want me to buy this cryptocurrency and then what? And then the kid's like, oh, well, it's gonna go up in price. It's gonna double in price. Okay. And then he goes, okay, and then what? A- am I gonna be able to use it to buy things and all that? He goes, no, well, but, but it'll double in price. It'll just double in price. He goes, and then what? What do I do then? And he said, oh, well, then you can cash out. He goes, okay, cash out in what?

• 16:26Speaker 02

  And he goes, oh, you, you can just cash out. He goes, yeah, so I'll cash it back out in Australian dollars, right? So at the end of the day, cash is king. Um, and you know, and that's the point that a lot of these, these people may, like, they, they miss that. Okay. So it's just like any financial asset, like CFDs, like trading CFDs or something, that you're just using it as a vehicle to multiply your fiat currency. Because at the end of the day, fiat currency is king.

• 16:53Speaker 01

  Hmm. Yeah, for sure.

• 16:54Speaker 02

  And will be for, for, for the amount of time that governments are in power.

• 16:59Speaker 01

  Yes. Yeah, mate. Uh, it, it's funny how you, you say it so simply and it, it looks so obvious. And yet I am sure if we brought on 10 crypto experts on this show, they will find really, uh, delicate and extensive language to tell me why we're wrong. And it'll sound amazing. Like I've sat with some of these crypto people. I've sat with one dude, um, that we had on this podcast once and then that was it, a one and done. Um, because it's different when you have experience, like, you know, we, we've had, I, I would say, you know, um, humbly quite enough experience in the stock market combined.

• 17:40Speaker 01

  It's, we're almost pushing 40 years and, and on, in this whole office, we're looking at 70, 80 years. Like, um, we've seen a bit, mate. We're not, we're not new. And, and when, when you see someone talking to you and telling you all these things and you, you, you have a gauge of how markets work and you understand structures, um, how it all shifts, how it moves, uh, how it's built. And then somebody's feeding you this really fancy language and telling you all these things. And you just ask simple questions and they stumble on them and you go, hmm, all right. I, I see what's going on here. And the way you put it just simply like that, there will have to be, uh, an atomic-like shift in structure

• 18:25Speaker 01

  for the, for, for, for, um, Bitcoin to become on equal par with, with money. Um, or replace money. And, and I don't think the, the Bitcoin believers understand what that actually means. Uh, and, and how that would actually physically happen. Yes, they have theories on how it would. I'm, I'm sure they can show them, but.

• 18:52Speaker 01

  The consequences of getting there and it actually happening.

• 18:57Speaker 01

  And it's not for this podcast, but it's something to really think about, honestly, guys, because it's the simple questions. If you can't answer the simple questions, they're the ones that

• 19:09Speaker 01

  that's a problem.

• 19:11Speaker 02

  Hmm. Yeah.

• 19:13Speaker 01

  You know.

• 19:16Speaker 01

  So anyway, we move on to getting away from Washington for a little while and talk about why the Bitcoin and crypto businesses are different because we started on that. So obviously, you know, why would the business get hit twice as hard as Bitcoin itself? So there's a thing called regulatory beta. So

• 19:43Speaker 01

  this is our way of thinking. It's not an official metric, but it's think of different parts of cryptos having different regulatory beta. So, and this is the important part to understand. Bitcoin itself doesn't need a license to continue operating. But Coinbase runs on an exchange. Circle issues a major stablecoin. Custodians, brokers, exchanges and token issuers are businesses that directly depend on regulation. So broadly, Bitcoin has lower direct regulatory sensitivity. Exchanges, stablecoin businesses, much higher. Smaller projects with greater legal uncertainty, potentially higher again.

• 20:30Speaker 01

  So but the thing is Bitcoin is still indirectly exposed through exchanges, ETFs custody and institutional access. So

• 20:39Speaker 01

  you've got to look at crypto. It's not just one trade. You know, a piece of regulation can potentially mean very different things for Bitcoin, old coins and listed crypto companies. So I think that's just important to throw that in there and not just go one one angle on this whole story because it will mean different things for different areas of the market. But nevertheless, I think, you know, what we're saying is not trying to bash one way or the other. We're just putting all the data out there and asking questions that any logical person should ask and say, well, okay, it's been blocked. That's the reality. They don't even want to fathom the idea and discuss it in parliament.

• 21:20Speaker 01

  So why? What does that mean? And if you think we're bashing Bitcoin, please, it's not like that. I I still think Bitcoin is one of the best trading instruments

• 21:30Speaker 01

  technically around today. Amazing.

• 21:33Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah.

• 21:34Speaker 01

  But it's a different, but it's a different thing talking about using Bitcoin to profit and talking about Bitcoin as putting it in law next to fiat money. Two very different conversations.

• 21:49Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 21:49Speaker 01

  So I hope that, you know, you're clear on that because I don't want to get all the Bitcoin haters thinking that we're just bashing because it's not the case, not at all, mate.

• 21:58Speaker 02

  For sure. Yeah, look, on the positive note, what the positive that I do see from this, and you mentioned Circle. And I did a little bit of digging into them and what really stands out to me about Circle, and I know we're going to get into the chart later and actually, you know, I've got a few things to say on the chart of Circle as well. Circle actually builds a digital plumbing that allows money to move natively on internet blockchains. So their cross-chain transfer protocol, C C T P, is a core piece of cryptocurrency infrastructure. It allows users and developers to securely destroy and mint USDC natively across different competing blockchains like Ethereum, Solana, without relying on risky third-party cross-chain bridges. So

• 22:44Speaker 02

  I mean, this is an infrastructure play, really. You're not betting on a particular cryptocurrency, an old coin, a shitcoin or whatever the you know, Hoc Tua coins. It's just, you know, it's the infrastructure that runs it. And to me, it just makes me think about infrastructure stocks in general, you know, like an app here that that does carry the gas plays and things that can increase costs at a whim. This is like the digital version of that. And that's actually pretty exciting. And another thing about Circle is that apparently they create developer tools in the Web three. So Web three, for people that don't know, that's like the next internet. Apparently it hasn't really taken off yet, but

• 23:28Speaker 02

  that's like the next level of internet. And it allows companies to build Web three applications. And USDC is heavily integrated as a primary liquidity pool for hundreds of decentralized finance protocols. So this could be the future of stablecoins, of even a fiat currency that becomes integrated into the blockchain. It'll use this infrastructure. So this, for me, is a better play than to bet on, I mean, long term, to bet in into any old coin.

• 24:03Speaker 01

  Hmm. Yeah, yeah. Well, let's dive into the chart of Bitcoin because the question is, did the news change Bitcoin's trend or simply accelerate the move that was already underway? So we have been covering Bitcoin for a while now. For me, I remember, and I don't know if it was talking with you or talking with someone in media about this run for Bitcoin from the 21st of August up through September, where it ran from 60,000 up to 80,000. I remember saying, well, there was a lot of institutions selling that move, which was very weird to me.

• 24:41Speaker 01

  Because you would expect a move like that, such a sharp move coming out of the low, it being bought. But then it, what dawned on me was, hang on a second. They may be trading in and out of this, given that overall since the turn or since the start of AI

• 25:01Speaker 01

  or the shift from Bitcoin to AI for institutional money,

• 25:07Speaker 01

  which we saw a lot of outflows coming out of Bitcoin ETFs and moving into AI ETFs, which is definitely understandable. You're getting something real

• 25:16Speaker 01

  versus this. And so naturally, when you overlay that lens, it's like, okay. Well, if they're going to get unwind positions, they're not just going to dump, they're going to unwind by trading their way out, right? And so I saw, I saw that and I'm like, okay. Where they were interacting on the buy and sell side was really interesting. But the reality was the move was not supported up to 80,000. Bang, we've seen literally a touch of that previous move up in May and we're falling away now. So to me, nothing's changed long term. From the point of view that this is still bearish. And until 80,000 breaks and holds on Bitcoin

• 26:00Speaker 01

  with sellers failing there, I'm still with a bearish view that Bitcoin could have much, much further to fall and repeating previous cycles. 30 to 20,000 is very, very possible. Especially after what's happened, you know, yesterday or today with the Clarity Act. So my view is not changing on Bitcoin. Unfortunately, 80,000 was the metric and it's failed there. So, yeah.

• 26:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah, I have to agree. And you know, when you look at that overall bigger picture on the weekly chart here. And you know, this is something that we always talk to our students about is looking at that bigger picture, you know, the short-term movements. And you can clearly see that is on that right-hand side, contractionary, bearish move. And that hasn't finished yet, especially after hitting its head at that $82,000 level. And now just going back to January 2022, right? When we had that similar contractionary bearish move that basically took it back to the law of 2020.

• 27:06Speaker 02

  If you look at that move from January 2022, it was a kind of zigzag motion up to the high of 2022. That was a move of 46%. 46% up and then it just tanked again, got sold off from that peak there. It sold off a further 60%. Right now, from the low in June 2026, it's gone up 41%. So similar similar percentage. So if it was to come down another 60% like it did back there in 2022, that would take us around that 30,000 or even that, you know, if it goes down to 70%,

• 27:45Speaker 02

  even back down to that 20,000 like you mentioned. So I can see the logic in that. And that would take us back down to the 2023 levels. So that is a real risk. I agree.

• 27:56Speaker 01

  Yeah. Well, let's move on to Coinbase, which

• 28:02Speaker 01

  Coinbase has found a floor at 140. But unfortunately, unlike the period from 2023 to 2025, which was a market that was pushing higher with higher a structure that represents a bull market. Since June 2025, the structure is very much a bear market. And buyers are not showing conviction.

• 28:31Speaker 01

  Way less conviction from that 150, sorry, 146 level than they were in the past. Like, for example, in September 24, when we hit 140, the market rallied

• 28:44Speaker 01

  139%. In May 25 or April 25, when it hit that 140 level, the market rallied 200%. In February 26, when it hit that level, 140, the market rallied only 58%.

• 29:03Speaker 01

  Recently, in July twenty six, we hit that level again and the markets rallied thirty nine percent. So the rallies are getting smaller and smaller, albeit it's finding its way back to that support level. And again, this is, this is a bearish market, um, obviously got dumped on the news, very much looks a, a little like the Bitcoin price in, in recent price action, but dumped on the, on the, the news of this and if one forty, if one forty does not hold this time, um, I, I, yeah, I don't like where this is heading.

• 29:37Speaker 02

  Yeah, me either. And you know, when you said that it looks like the Bitcoin chart that, that sparked something, I've, I've overlaid the, the Bitcoin chart on top of Coinbase and it's basically the same thing. So, you know, if you're going to be trading Bitcoin and this, you're going to double your exposure because they're, they're basically moving together. Uh, so for me, it'd be one or the other.

• 29:55Speaker 01

  Yep. And the, the last one, Circle, which you mentioned, uh, it's relatively new, uh, for people that don't know, it's only been around since June, uh, two thousand and twenty five. And, um, and what's interesting about it is, uh, well, sorry, I should say it's been around since, yeah, June two thousand and twenty five. Uh, like any IPO on the US market, uh, or on any market, huge euphoria on the first month that this stock listed, listed at seventy, ran up to basically three hundred, um, almost three hundred, which was a gain of around, I can't even get my mouse to work, of about three hundred percent.

• 30:36Speaker 01

  Today it's trading at eighty eight. So we saw a push down below the IPO price back in February twenty six. Sometimes that means the bottom's in, but the way this is reacting, it's still bearish. The up moves a week, reversing back down, may find some support at sixty, but not enough data and I, I wouldn't be, be hard for me to get involved in this, to be honest, like looking like the way it is right now.

• 31:04Speaker 02

  Yeah, uh, look, I, I somewhat, uh, uh, agree. I think that if I had to choose between any of these three, this one is probably the one that offers the lowest risk to reward. You know, if you had to kind of get into this space, and like I said, you know, earlier, just those prospects of, of providing the infrastructure, that in itself gets me interested now. What I, one thing that caught my attention is that when it IPO'd, it went down to that low of sixty four and then again touched it in November twenty twenty five. And then again, it bounced off that level in twenty twenty six. Now that's three times, uh, for any student that's, you know, listening out there, uh, you know, what, what that pattern indicates, uh, but we still need to see some further confirmation. I think that now it's, it's make or break.

• 31:50Speaker 02

  It needs to hold at, at around that eighty five dollars. But if it trades above, you know, that hundred dollar mark, I think that it could start to get interesting. And, and I'm sure, you know, Phil, you, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

• 32:02Speaker 01

  I do, I do, absolutely. Well, that, that leads us nicely into the next part, which is what happens next? Like the charts are telling us one thing. But what is actually going to happen next after this vote? Um, and I think that we can break it down into three clean paths. Now, path one, they renegotiate and they try again. So like technically the legislation is not dead, that lets, um, you know, clear that up. So Senator Tom Tillis changed his vote for procedural reasons, preserving the possibility of reconsideration. Reuters reported that this leaves a route for another attempt, but having a procedural pathway back is very different from having sixty votes. So

• 32:46Speaker 01

  maybe he thought, okay, we're not going to win this time. Let me just, let's keep the door open for another crack later. I don't know. Um, they need to resolve all these disagreements to bring more senators on board. So, um, things like the ethics rule, rules, the stablecoin rewards, uh, how that affects the banks, which, and they're not giving up without easy, um, consumer protection and illicit finance provisions, all of that.

• 33:14Speaker 01

  Needs to be, I guess, negotiated on a lot more. And even if eventual Senate passage isn't necessarily the end, um, because the House of Senate and ultimately, uh, will need to agree on the same legislative act. So that's the first part. Now, path two is Congress stalls, but regulators continue. So think about the SEC and the CFTC, which SEC is like ASIC in Australia, for those that don't know. Do not suddenly, imagine they don't, do not suddenly stop regulating crypto because clarity stalled. They've already issued substantial crypto guidance this year. So businesses could continue receiving more regulatory clarity, but

• 33:57Speaker 01

  what happens if a future administration has completely, a completely different view? So that's the vulnerability, um. The rules, interpretations and enforcement priorities, they can change, which, which brings us to crypto may still get clarity without Congress. The bigger question is how durable that clarity is. And really, I mean, Trump might not be here, um, or the senators may change, he might, he might, you know, he didn't like the Fed dude and he was gone. Albeit, he said, I'm, I'm going to do what I'm going to do and no one can do anything to me. Well, not there anymore, Jerome, too slow Jerome. Maybe the senators have voted now we're on the way out soon.

• 34:38Speaker 02

  Maybe they're suddenly going to start disappearing, you reckon?

• 34:41Speaker 01

  Oh, well, yeah, yeah. He, he seems to have a way of getting what, now, and I'm not saying Trump wants this, but yeah, anyway.

• 34:50Speaker 02

  Yeah. And they, they could be just, you know, trying to, um, push against it just as a political move as well, because Democrats and liberals, yeah. That, that I usually agree on, on everything.

• 35:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, but look, if, if I had to say who would have the vested, most vested interest that against it, it's the banks and how much banks have influence in political. Circles, uh, you can go and do your research on that, who knows? Um, yeah, anyway. So part three is the legislation gets pushed beyond the midterms. So the legislative calendar creates another risk, which is time. If, if the lawmakers can't find the compromise quickly, the debate could move into a different political environment after the midterm elections, which is what we just mentioned, um, who knows? Uh, so the longer it takes, the longer businesses have to operate without the comprehensive statutory framework they were hoping for. So

• 35:44Speaker 01

  I think, I think, uh, you know, just finish it off with, with this, the bigger implication, nobody should ignore, which is regulatory, regulatory uncertainty could actually help the biggest companies. So this is a little counterintuitive, but regulation and compliance costs money. Coinbase can afford lawyers, compliance, lobbying, licenses, years of regulatory work. A tiny exchange or startup may not. So prolonged complexity can create a barrier to entry. Ironically, regulatory uncertainty can hurt incumbents in the short term while potentially protecting their competitive position longer term. So,

• 36:21Speaker 01

  that's a possibility, you know?

• 36:24Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's, that's a great point. Yeah, because they can afford to, to go through all the fine print, even if there is an overarching legislation. They can navigate the current system a lot better, whereas the new little guys coming in, they have to sift through all of this current SEC paperwork and what they can, they can't do. Yeah, totally agree.

• 36:45Speaker 01

  Yeah. Now, the second one is could Bitcoin gain, gain from regulatory differentiation? So Bitcoin already sits in a comparatively established regulatory category and is explicitly included by the SEC, CFTC among examples of digital commodities. So could this continued uncertainty, uncertainty elsewhere in crypto make regulatory certainty itself valuable? So again, you know, given they're at the top of the, the list, um, if, if, you know, the Bitcoin dominance rises, if altcoins weaken, if Bitcoin holds technically, if regulatory sensitive businesses underperform, then you'll have some evidence, uh, pointing towards this thesis.

• 37:29Speaker 01

  Uh, and the third one, the real battle might be stablecoins versus bank deposits, which we've spoken about. Um, stablecoins, they do blur, blur the line between crypto and everyday money. So if they become a serious place to hold cash, transact and potentially receive rewards, then crypto begins competing with the banks in one of banking's most important businesses. So uh, that makes potentially future crypto legislation far more, um, serious than speculation in Bitcoin. So it's basically who holds your dollars, who processes your payments, who gets the deposits and ultimately, ultimately who controls the plumbing

• 38:09Speaker 01

  of the financial system. That is the discussion, the questions about all of this, which I think we will leave everybody with to ponder on.

• 38:17Speaker 02

  Hmm. Very good questions and, uh, to be continued, it looks like. So it's not the end. It's just, let's wait and see what, what happens. And, um, the, the market hasn't crashed yet, uh, it's still holding up. So if anybody's holding these cryptocurrencies, now my final advice would just be, look at the chart, the chart will tell you everything. Yes, you can navigate all of this. Uh, but as we saw earlier, there was some technical resistance at that eighty two thousand dollar level. You could see it even before knowing all of this. So I would urge anybody that's trading cryptocurrencies, learn how to read a chart, uh, that's going to give you a lot more power than navigating all of this stuff, uh, that we've done, uh, for you in this episode, but you will have to continue doing yourself.

• 39:03Speaker 01

  Yeah. And I would say learn how to do it properly. Um, just learning how to read a chart by thinking you learn, knowing how to read a chart and, and watching a free video or something. One of the worst things you could do, and I'm speaking to the younger generation, because really it's the younger generation in crypto more than anyone, is don't think just by seeing or by doing that you're doing it right. You could practice, I, I say it always in, you know, in, in martial arts. You get a dude that, that's been practicing for thirty, forty years jabbing, but been jabbing wrong the whole time. And, and doesn't mean just because he's been doing it for thirty years, he knows how to punch correctly. And so same goes with the markets, just because you've seen something, the free online, or you've seen someone draw support and resistance and you go, oh yeah, that's all it is.

• 39:48Speaker 01

  You're young. At least give yourself a chance to learn the right way and build the right foundation and the right habits. Don't make the mistake, get old with wrong habits and have to unlearn them and start all over again and waste all these years in your life. It's not worth it, guys. Take it from experience. So, um, yeah, we'll leave it, we'll leave it on that. Thank you very much, Pedro. Uh, it was a good one today.

• 40:12Speaker 02

  Yeah, mate. Yeah, loved it.

• 40:13Speaker 01

  Awesome. And we'll catch you all in the next podcast. Uh, thank you very much for tuning in. Please, if you could, give us a five star review. We're trying to grow this channel as much as possible to, uh, get information like this, unbiased information. We're not tied to any sponsor. We're not, um, you know, trying to, to do anything but try to package information and, and, um, put it out there in simple, logical ways, we think, uh, that can help everyday people in the market. So thanks for tuning in and see you on the next one.

• 40:43Speaker 00

  This podcast is brought to you by Wealth Within, a global leader in stock market education. For more information on our courses, head over to wealthwithin.com.au. Please note that the information in this podcast should not be considered personal financial advice.