6 ASX Energy Stocks that Could be the Next Multibaggers

In tonight’s Australian Stock Market Show, Filip, Janine and Pedro break down 6 ASX energy stocks that could be the next multibaggers.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  This podcast is brought to you by Wealth Within, a global leader in stock market education. For more information on our courses, head over to wealthwithin.com.au. Please note that the information in this podcast should not be considered personal financial advice. Enjoy.

• 0:20Speaker 01

  Oil is back above US $90 as war continues to disrupt one of the world's most important energy routes, the Strait of Hormuz. But while everyone is watching the Middle East, Trump has just secured US access to billions of barrels of Venezuelan oil as China continues buying gold and reducing its exposure to US debt. So are we watching a much bigger battle for control over the world's energy and real assets? And if we are, which Australian companies stand to benefit? Today, we're uncovering six smaller ASX energy stocks that could be perfectly positioned for this shift and potentially become the next multi-baggers. At Wealth Within, we don't just talk about the market. We've spent decades teaching Australians how to understand and trade it through our accredited education. I'm Philip Tortevsky.

• 1:04Speaker 01

  Joining me tonight are senior analyst Janine Cox and Pedro Banyales. And we are Wealth Within. Good evening.

• 1:09Speaker 02

  Good evening.

• 1:10Speaker 01

  Nice to see you.

• 1:10Speaker 02

  I'm really excited. Thank you. Nice to see you. I'm really excited about this one.

• 1:14Speaker 01

  Yes, multi-baggers. I know this is right up your alley. And we do have Mr. Energy also joining us. Pedro, how are you going, buddy?

• 1:21Speaker 03

  Yeah, going good, going good. Look, I'm excited as well. We've mixed multi-baggers with energy. I mean, how much better can it get, right?

• 1:28Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, we had to have you on this show because I know you love this space. But let's dive right in and begin by connecting the dots. Now, around 20 million barrels of oil travel through this strait every day, roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, and 80% of it goes to Asia. Hormuz also carries around 19% of global liquefied natural gas trade. That means the war hasn't just pushed energy prices higher, it's exposed a major weakness for Asia. A huge part of its energy supply depends on one vulnerable shipping route. Now, look at what Trump has just done. The US has secured access to 17 Venezuelan oil fields containing around 64 billion barrels of proven reserves with preferential access

• 2:11Speaker 01

  to production. Some of those fields were previously operated by Chinese and Russian firms. Now, this doesn't solve America's energy problems tomorrow. Venezuela needs enormous investment to significantly increase production. But strategically, America has potentially secured a massive source of oil closer to home while reducing its dependence on energy coming from more vulnerable parts of the world. And now, look at China. China's US Treasury holdings have fallen to around $633 US billion, which is their lowest level since 2008, and down more than 13% in a year. At the same time, China's central bank has bought more gold for 21 consecutive months, taking reported holdings to 2,366 tonnes.

• 2:54Speaker 01

  Now, where is this all headed? I want to get your thoughts on this one, Janine, because, you know, there are some dots being connected. And really, it's looking interesting down the track for our energy players.

• 3:05Speaker 02

  It really is. And this is quite exciting, really. Now, you could make the link that China buying gold caused Trump to go after Venezuelan oil. But that's not what we're saying. What's more likely is that both countries appear to be addressing the same problem, dependence. China is diversifying some of its financial reserves away from US debt. America is strengthening its access to physical energy. And Hormuz has just demonstrated why controlling critical assets matters. Because China might own more gold, but it still needs enormous amounts of oil and gas, and a huge amount of that energy comes through Hormuz. That's the link. This is why I think Australia is in such an interesting spot right now.

• 3:50Speaker 01

  Hmm, very, very interesting. And following on from your point, Janine, if Asian countries increasingly want reliable energy that doesn't have to travel through Hormuz, Australia becomes a big option. Now, we're close to Asia, politically stable, already a major energy exporter, and we're still sitting on enormous undeveloped gas resources. The Middle East disruption has already moved close to 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply at times, forcing other producers to fill the gap. And this is where smaller players in the space in Australia could really become big multi-baggers in the near future. Pedro, I want to get you in on this one, mate, because really, that's where this opportunity may lead.

• 4:32Speaker 03

  Absolutely. I mean, Australia has already defined itself as a reliable partner, especially for Asia when it comes to gas exports. We've got big players like Woodside and Santos already supplying a majority of the gas supplies. I mean, one country that comes to mind is Japan, where they get the majority of their gas from us. So of course, the little players that are exploring at the moment, these are the ones that will really benefit once they do strike, you know, those gas reserves and are able to show that they can bring that gas online and commercialize it. And that's where the real value is. And the stocks that we're going to be looking at tonight are especially positioned in that

• 5:14Speaker 03

  space, where once they do commercialize, we could see multiples of, you know, the current price where they're trading it.

• 5:22Speaker 01

  All right. Well, that's the exciting part. Let's get to our first round of potential multi-bagger energy stocks, Janine.

• 5:28Speaker 02

  And they're looking really interesting. So take a look at this one. This is BTL, Betelou Energy Australia. Betelou Energy is sitting on a huge Northern Territory gas resource, which could become more valuable if Asia looks for secure energy outside the Middle East. Now, it needs to start selling gas and prove it can produce economically at a much larger scale. But just the setup of this chart is starting to look really fantastic. We can see here that, you know, that there are these higher lows coming in as the stock continues to move up, which is really promising. But it is volatile. You've got to expect it. It goes with the territory. But what I find striking about this move

• 6:13Speaker 02

  is that the swings up are getting smaller. We saw this huge volatility here. There's a much better agreement in price, more concentration. And often, when you see that, we're likely to see price come to a bit of an apex. You can see a line coming down here. As this line comes up, we've got this space in the middle. So this is really getting towards crunch time. And I think that not too far in the distant future, we could even see a break out of this move, which could be an incredible one if it does.

• 6:43Speaker 01

  I've got two questions. I mean, how interesting is it, you know, when you're talking about stocks like this, you overlay the dynamic, the story, you look at what, you know, some of the catalysts, but then it's ultimately going to that share price. I know we've got so many people that look at these stocks when you first get to the market. I know I've been, you know, someone who looked at the lower end starting. A lot of people that come to us do look at these stocks initially, which is they learn down the track that it's probably not the best way to start. But once you have the experience, how important is it in getting that timing right and using that price action to give you the right entry? Because when they take off, if you're not there, you could miss the opportunity that may not come again for these ones.

• 7:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, it's so critical. You just have to look at the volatility and how fast this stock moves to really appreciate it. So as Phil was saying, you know, having that knowledge and being able to trade stocks that are slower moving first to really appreciate the patterns and the, just the synchronicities with what happens on the stock market and how to pick what, you know, when the lower risk time is to actually buy. And I think that's the thing that you're really, you know, alluding to is that that's the key part.

• 7:52Speaker 01

  Because most people treat these as a buy and hold, you know, or buy.

• 7:56Speaker 02

  If it comes up one day, then, you know, that's great. If it doesn't, put some money in there like it's a bit of a punt instead of treating it how they could, which would cause them to potentially have their life savings made from one stock. But it could happen if they do it right and time it right.

• 8:12Speaker 01

  Yeah. And it doesn't have to be just that, just buy and hope for the story. And if it plays out great, you can actually trade these stocks, which is awesome. But if you do want to know more, check out this book in terms of how to trade stocks like this, how to build portfolios, how to manage your super. It's how to beat the managed funds by 20%. It is free. You just have to pay the shipping. The link is in the description in this video below. But as always, if you do want to take things to the professional standard, be able to pick stocks, take control of your stock selection, your financial future, go and visit the website, The Diploma of Share Trading and Investment. It is accredited. There is none other like it. And please go and check out some of those testimonials because you'll see the amazing results how our clients and students are having, not

• 8:55Speaker 01

  only at the big end of the market, but trading stocks exactly like this, having, and one comes to mind, and I don't want to mention his name, probably doesn't want us to say it, but you know, the gentleman I'm talking about.

• 9:06Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, they don't, it's not about being a professional. It's just about having the knowledge to be able to have a process of doing things. And once you have a process to follow and you know the risk management, then anybody can do that. This is the beautiful thing about the stock market is that it doesn't discriminate. So it's allowing anybody from all walks of life to do it.

• 9:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, awesome. Now, just the second point on this one, before we move on quickly, how important is volume with those stocks?

• 9:32Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's critical. And you can see from the right hand side of the chart that volume has been improving. And even though the stock is still moving in quite a volatile way, what happens over time as more volume comes into it, the way the stock unfolds will make it easier to trade, which is what we're seeing on the chart at the moment.

• 9:51Speaker 01

  So you're saying this one potentially something to look at?

• 9:54Speaker 02

  I like it. Yeah, looks good.

• 9:55Speaker 01

  Awesome. All right. There you go. A tick of approval. Let's get to our next one. Pedro, what have you got?

• 10:00Speaker 03

  All right, I've got a beauty for you guys. It's EXR, Alexa Energy, next up now. Let's get onto the chart because there's a lot to unpack here. So first of all, Alexa Energy has exposure to around 3 trillion cubic feet equivalent of gas resources in Queensland to room trough. There's a big trough right there, potentially providing another large source of Australian gas. Now, it needs to prove that gas can be produced commercially and economically at scale. So I mean, that's the common theme here with these little specky type energy plays. They need to prove that they can provide commercially at scale. Now, on the chart, this is very interesting. What I do like about this stock, I mean, there's so much that we could talk about here.

• 10:43Speaker 03

  First of all, I'm just going to draw a nice little simple line from this low here in 2020 because it is a relatively new stock to the market. I'll just move that across there to the right hand side. So we've got a bit of a base to work with and you can see that it's a very low price stock. It's that low there is one cent and a half. So the reason why I stretched it out to the right hand side is you can see that it actually bounced off that level back in April 2025. Now, that's significant.

• 11:15Speaker 03

  So the fact that it has bounced off and actually rose quite sharply, it wasn't just a simple little bounce, it was actually a rise of 860% if you can believe it. So that means that that level is a pretty strong level for this stock and you can see even ranging back to that 2020. What I like about it is that it's already gone through that period of that sharp rise, right? And this is why you don't want to be in these stocks, just taking a punt like you guys were mentioning before, because the rise really stopped at around 2021. If you thought that this stock was going to keep on going and you were wrong, you don't want to just hold on in hopes that it gets back up to your buyer price.

• 11:56Speaker 03

  Just that you bought up here at around that 30 cents, then you don't want to be four years just watching that money erode away and basically do nothing. You'd be down over 80%. So timing is everything with these stocks and you don't want to be that first one in there. You want to trade on confirmation. Now, it has gone through that period, that long-term bearish period before bouncing off that 15, that one cent level that I mentioned. What I like about it is that it's coming back now to retest it. It does look, I'm on the monthly chart by the way, it does look like it's holding up now. It looks like it's doing some type of reversal at the moment. We've got big volume coming into it.

• 12:38Speaker 03

  When you think about it, it's the biggest volume that we've seen before this rise, before that rise in 2020. And I'll just wait for that data to update, but you can see that the volume was around that same level as it is at the moment and it's constantly rising as the stock is rising. So going to the weekly chart, let's have a closer look at what exactly is happening, where that volume is spiking. Well, it spiked on this down move and usually what you see is that flush out, that large volume coming in when you see that flush out and then now prices halted. We've got some type of agreeance between the buyers and the sellers right now and it's called equilibrium and disequilibrium. Right now, we're in equilibrium.

• 13:19Speaker 03

  When you get price trade in disequilibrium, that's where you can see prices either rise or fall and it does look like it's heading up at the moment right now. So if it does hold this level here and we do have a small support level at around that four cent mark, which was a previous support level back here in 2025, if we hold this support, I think that this one could actually go for a nice run and you've got a good percentage up to that previous high, 215%. So that's what we're dealing with, with these types of stocks. Of course, a little bit higher risk, but with it comes higher returns.

• 13:57Speaker 01

  Well, we're talking about multibagger, so that's what it's all about. We'll take a bit more risk to get the return. Janine, you've got one more?

• 14:03Speaker 02

  Yeah, look, I mean, I don't know if I can top what Pedro was talking about before, but I'm going to give it a shot. So let's see how we go. This is Strike Energy Limited, STX. Strike Energy is developing an 85 megawatt gas-fired power station in Western Australia, giving it exposure to both gas and electricity demand. The next step is getting the power station commercially operating and then successfully developing its larger gas assets. Now, obviously it's had a massive plunge over recent times back to this really strong support level, which is really important. And this is why timing is so critical on these stocks. I mean, if you bought into this thing at the top here, you'd be down about 76%. Why?

• 14:48Speaker 02

  Why do that? I mean, this is where you have to take the opportunity where it comes and is why, you know, watching our show is so important because we bring these things to you when the timing is setting up, you know? And it's showing that at the moment, you can see the interesting thing about this and I was fascinated by the one that Pedro was looking at because there were so many patterns forming on it and repeating. And someone said to me the other day, you know, I really never understood how stocks unfolded until I studied with you and learnt how these particular patterns form that you've taught me and it just makes it so much clearer to me, even on smaller stocks, that can be the case. So looking at these bounces as they come up, whenever the stock plunges into a low,

• 15:32Speaker 02

  it has a big bounce out of it, you know? Like you get this plunge into the low and a big bounce out. You get this plunge into the low there or even here and a big bounce out. That's a telltale sign telling you that, you know, at some point, watch the fall because, you know, don't walk away, just watch it. Don't try to pick it up when it's falling, but watch to see when that rebound's going to come. And having a, I guess, a confluence of analysis to bring together the strategy is really what's important. Once you've got that and you're able to tick the boxes, then, you know, the timing of it.

• 16:08Speaker 01

  Yeah, I was going to say that because, you know, someone listening might say, well, yeah, I know patterns, I know, you know, support, but really what you're saying is it's a lot deeper than that. It's not just as simple as, oh, you know a pattern.

• 16:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, because one thing's not, like, it might not work on every single stock.

• 16:25Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 16:25Speaker 02

  So you might have to pick your stocks, but there will be certain arrangements that unfold on this stock. It might be the same for a group of the energy stocks you might find, the strategy works, but it's about trialling it and testing it and the ability to do that is what's really important and having someone who knows more than you to actually help you and support you. But you can see here that there was actually a really nice trend coming up there, even though it's so volatile, a very nice trend coming up until it eventually accelerated away. And there's so many telltale signs of the setups happening now. At the moment, the stock's been in free fall pretty much until it's just got over to this last sort of eight months or so, 12 months.

• 17:06Speaker 02

  And now we're seeing this sideways consolidation unfolding, but we haven't really seen the test of the low complete yet. You see, sometimes it just skids along the bottom and you've got to know what to look for when that's actually finished. And don't be afraid to allow a bit of an acceleration to happen and think, oh, I've missed it. And you walk off and you go and look at another stock. No, don't do that. That could be a big mistake with these ones.

• 17:30Speaker 01

  I think that comes down to process and structure, right? If you, and something repeatable. If you have a repeatable process and structure, you're not scared to let a stock start moving up before you're ready to get in it because you know, tried and tested, that the opportunity will come.

• 17:47Speaker 02

  Yeah, and I learnt that the hard way with cricket. You know, if you actually don't get the timing right, you're going to end up very sore.

• 17:54Speaker 01

  Learned something new today, fair enough.

• 17:57Speaker 02

  Yeah, no, not really.

• 18:00Speaker 01

  So just on this one, is it more of a watch right now or something to throw?

• 18:05Speaker 02

  This is a definite watch right now.

• 18:07Speaker 01

  Awesome. All right, there you have it. Three very interesting stocks. Stick around because we've got more amazing stocks to show you. But now time for our trending topic this week. Janine, what have you got for us?

• 18:18Speaker 02

  For those curious to know whether the latest on the CBA class action is bad news or a buy signal, stay tuned. First, this article in Financial Standard states, "A class action spearheaded by Slater and Gordon commenced in 2018 and alleges CBA and Colonial First State Investments breached the trust of their superannuation fund members by investing members' retirement savings with its parent bank, even though the bank didn't offer the best interest rates." Hmm. Three super funds were targeted in the class action, First Choice, Commonwealth Essentials Super and Avantius Superannuation Fund, and have agreed to settle for $249 million.

• 19:03Speaker 02

  Also, in Business News Australia, in agreeing to resolve the proceedings, CBA, CFSIL and AIL continue to deny the allegations and make no admission of liability or wrongdoing. If the Federal Court of Australia approves the settlement sum of $249 million, eligible class members may be entitled to receive a share of the settled sum unless any deductions approved by the court. Now, last month, CBA reported net profit up 7% to $10.9 billion and a fully franked dividend up from $260 last year to $270. No one will complain about that. So the big question is, will the market shrug off the bad news and allow CBA's share price to recover?

• 19:47Speaker 02

  Well, if the Federal Court approves the settlement, I'd say probably, though the real question for investors is not will CBA recover, but when? Let's take a look at the charts. All right, you can see here this beautiful chart, I mean, don't you just love this trend? It's just gorgeous, coming all the way up from this low underneath here, but it's possible that CBA may have further to fall, despite its good news and its reporting, regardless of what's going on with the class action. This is what the market dictates, it's all about timing. Now, I still see CBA as having the potential to make another move up, but I'm just watching

• 20:29Speaker 02

  it at the moment because while it's hanging in there, you can see there are a number of lows there, it's just trying to find support and it's probably more detail here on the right-hand side. This is crucial right now for whether CBA is going to recover in the short term or not. Now, there's a potential for CBA to fall all the way back to around, between 130 and 140, that's the reality and a possibility right now, given the way that it's unfolded in recent weeks. It's got a huge hurdle to get through. Now, you can see this line up here, there's a hell of a lot of resistance going on there. It could make a break and push up, but what's going to be the catalyst, right? It's just had a great reporting season come out.

• 21:13Speaker 02

  One thing that I'm really sort of watching at the moment is the credit card debt and what's going on there, because banks make a fortune out of that as well, and the interest on credit cards.

• 21:24Speaker 01

  I think the other thing is also what we're seeing around the new loans, you know, when they reported, that was the big question mark, down 15% on new mortgages.

• 21:33Speaker 02

  Going backwards.

• 21:34Speaker 01

  Yeah. But then again, you know, I dug into their report across the whole business, everything was up, including business loans.

• 21:42Speaker 02

  I know, it's roses, doesn't it?

• 21:43Speaker 01

  Right, and you know, 90-day arrears for mortgage stress was not anything substantial. So, yeah, you're right.

• 21:51Speaker 02

  But it's what's next.

• 21:52Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 21:53Speaker 02

  And that's what the market's saying by voting it down, and that's why the share price is really falling. And then, you know, if the class action just gets approved and there's no further issues there, then I think it's just going to be, you know, brushed off. But we really need to see Combank get back above this 180 level to make that next move into the 200s, which I'm still saying is on the cards, it's just a matter of time, and letting it see if it can come back to this level. If it can, you know, the managed funds are going to be sniffing around it then, because you know, then the upside's 30% to the high, plus what's potential after that, you know, there could be some, you know, good moves there if it has that opportunity to recover back through into that range between 150 and 180.

• 22:38Speaker 01

  Yeah, but this is the beautiful thing about price action, right? You can understand just by looking and knowing how to read price, what your options and scenarios are, because to me, you look at that 2024-25 run, that's not how a bank should run, that's a tech stock move.

• 22:51Speaker 02

  Oh, that's beautiful.

• 22:52Speaker 01

  You know what I mean? So that run through there, while everyone would have been cheering and clapping and saying, oh, look how great CBA is, it's going to go to $500, the reality is, that is not sustainable. And that's why personally, I think if this struggles now, because there's a lot of indecision going on with this price action.

• 23:09Speaker 02

  Sure is.

• 23:10Speaker 01

  You know, it could be consolidating before the next move higher, but it could be really resisting and struggling at these levels, given the backdrop. I can see CBA going back down to $120, to go back to that long-term sustainable rate rise. We've seen it with every other stock, it's not, you know, out of the ordinary.

• 23:26Speaker 02

  Yeah, the funny thing about CBA though, is when it has its falls, it doesn't always come back exactly to the levels we think, because it's just such a popular stock that people are picking it up, you know, when it gets down to these levels, because it might not have been down there for a while and they've got a bit of that FOMO.

• 23:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 23:42Speaker 02

  See the big funds come in, they know that that's got the liquidity and that's where a lot of the money goes, so.

• 23:47Speaker 01

  Could be interesting.

• 23:48Speaker 02

  I still like CBA, it's just, like we always say, it's all about when and the timing and getting that right.

• 23:53Speaker 01

  All right, maybe the opportunity is coming very soon. Now, if you want the skills to analyse the stocks, just like you've seen, visit our website, wealthwithin.com.au, but let's get back into our topic and some more of those multi-bagger energy stocks. Pedro, take away the next one, mate.

• 24:08Speaker 03

  All right, next up, we've got Carnaveral Energy, ticker code CBN. Now, they own 10% of the large Dorado Oil and Gas Discovery offshore Western Australia, giving us direct exposure to Australian oil. For the company to really transform, Dorado needs to move forward towards a final investment decision and eventually start producing oil. So they haven't started producing yet, but everything is there, ready to go. Now, Carnaveral is up the north there of Western Australia, it looks like a beautiful place to be. Now, let's expand out the monthly chart and have a look at what's happened with this price.

• 24:52Speaker 03

  Now, I'll hide out this text box here. I would disregard maybe the, this earlier price action here, because it does look like it could have been maybe a backdoor listing, I don't think it was the same stock as it was back here, all that volatility. Right now, what I'm interested in is probably the last 20 years of this stock and how it's behaved. You can see that it goes through these runs from 2005, it ran up from, what was it, 10 cents, all the way up to 80 cents, and then only for it to come back down to that level. And once again, it does that, it ebbs and flows, it's quite a cyclical type stock.

• 25:35Speaker 03

  We can draw a line below here and say, well, it doesn't usually get all the way down to 2 cents. I would say that really the most important price and floor for this stock is probably at around that 8 cents, that's where it's recently bounced off. And the reason why I say 8 cents is because it skimmed along that price all the way through 2017, it bounced off it just a little bit in 2011, and it's hit its head on that level throughout 2002 as well. So I would say that 8 cents is an important level for this stock, and I'll just mark out probably just one more level for the moment, and that's at around that 15 cents.

• 26:19Speaker 03

  And you can see that that's been at an important level back here in 2016 and all the way back to 2000. It even hit its head a little bit in 2012 and a couple of times found support around 2020. So that's going to be the range that I'd be looking at, and we've got to the lower range there, we've got 25%, then we've got about 40% up to that 15 cents. So, you know, whether the risk or reward ratio is there, I'll leave it up to you guys. One final thing that I would say is just, it has been trending down since this high in 2018, and we've been making lower highs ever since. So if you can just put a momentum all the way down those peaks, you can see that it hasn't broken yet.

• 27:04Speaker 03

  So it hasn't quite broken that momentum yet, not quite there, but once it does, it actually does look like it's due for a run, because it's already had these cyclical type stages, and then now it looks like it could be in for that next phase right now, whether it's going to be a little one like we witnessed in 2014, or a big one like we saw in 2019, what we're yet to see.

• 27:28Speaker 01

  Hmm, awesome. Did you want to get into the next one, Janine?

• 27:31Speaker 02

  I definitely do, and it's Buru Energy, Phil. And this one is one that was talked about by a lot of brokers a long time ago, remember? It was just so well publicised, and look at it now, it's just a complete disaster. If people had have bought that without a stop loss, you know, you'd be really upset about it and for good reason, but it just looks like it's going nowhere at the moment. And it would have to do a lot, and I mean a lot, for me to really be interested in it. But it owns the Rafael Gas and Condensate Discovery in Western Australia's Canning Basin. To me, I think one of the best things that could happen to this is if someone takes it over, targeting secure energy supply into Northern Western Australia. It's not going to be good though for people who have held it for a long time, but the

• 28:14Speaker 02

  company now needs to secure the commercial agreements, develop the project and ultimately start selling gas, even if they went into a partnership, which can sometimes happen, which would probably be a better outcome for shareholders if that was the case. But if we're looking at this chart, and you can see that there's a long-term line there of support, it's just miles from that level. And so, like I said, it really needs to do a lot on this low, it's been making new lows. So it actually has to show that it's going to stop doing that. And there are a number of things that we teach that can help you work out when the turn is in, and it's really important for you to get that information, especially, not just now, but we're coming into the most important period in the market's history

• 28:59Speaker 02

  over the last 20 years, for you to actually have that knowledge. So if you haven't actually inquired about it yet, you must, you've still got time.

• 29:08Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, you're right, you know, because this is where fortunes get wiped or made in these kinds of volatile times. Just quickly on that one, what's interesting to me is you go on that weekly chart, the volume is abnormally large, like if you go through the whole history, if you, does that, is that telling us?

• 29:29Speaker 02

  Well, it's at a lower price for a start, so I don't, I don't, you know, I wouldn't necessarily take that as being too important at the moment. I mean, this period here, you could see it was actually rising, you know, and there was much higher volume on the rising share price, I liked that more, but then it wasn't sustainable, it fell away again and kept making new lows. So you want to see that volume maintained and then get higher, and then this test, we want a real test of that low for us to know that a turn may be in.

• 29:58Speaker 01

  Yeah, all right, Buru, maybe you're going to have to put at the end of the list. Pedro, last stock.

• 30:05Speaker 03

  All right, next up we have Omega Gas and Oil and this is looking like a little bit better than that one, Janine, sorry. I'll take this one gladly. So Omega Oil and Gas has already established a large contingent gas resource in Queensland's Tarung Trough, again, another one in the Tarung Trough, and has recorded oil and gas flows from its Canyon project. Now it needs further drilling and testing to prove those results can be repeated and ultimately developed commercially. But look at that beautiful trend that's come in since that low in 2024. It's had consistently higher highs and higher lows. I'll expand out the monthly chart to have a look at what's going

• 30:44Speaker 03

  on. I'll hold out that text box. Now, it's a fairly new stock in our market. It IPOed in 2022, moved sideways. One thing that I do like is that unlike most IPOs, it actually didn't get sold off. It just trailed sideways for a bit and now it's had this spectacular run. So it's one of those rare occasions where if you would have bought the IPO, you would be up around 280% at the moment. So that's a pretty good return. Now, the momentum has shifted, I would say, from 2025. That momentum is well and truly established and then this month looks like it's closing pretty high. So it's looking like it's pushing forward. Now, how high can it go? Well, that's where your price

• 31:28Speaker 03

  analysis comes in and you really, you know, need to look at the price action of the past and project forward. I mean, we covered that in Module Four of the diploma and it's, I mean, that, by the way, blew my mind when I first did it because the way that you can predict where future price move, you know, future price can move, it's just unbelievable. It's sometimes to a T, you know, where price will go. So at the moment, it's moving up quite sharply. You can see that it's from that low there, up 35%. We may see a bit of a slowdown at the moment, like we saw back

• 32:09Speaker 03

  here where we saw the price spike and then we have a bit of a slowdown and then price ramps up again. We do have some type of, you know, just basic resistance and, well, you know, whenever we put these levels on, we're just looking at where price found resistance and support in the past. These aren't, you know, those levels that I'm talking about before where we actually, you know, work out using a little bit more intricate methods. But at the moment, it's 70 cents seems to be a bit of a resistance level. We do have a gap here at the closing price of 76 cents that it might come back to fill. So I'd be looking at that and what it does at around that 76 cent

• 32:49Speaker 03

  level. And if it does, you know, sometimes you see stocks fill it and then come back down and then move back up again. It'd be interesting to see how this is moving with the price of oil as well. It looks like it is following it somewhat because we have seen oil rise a little bit in the last couple of weeks. So this has also risen with that. And we've also got an increase in volume. And interestingly, the volume does increase when we see these moves up. So at the moment, we've got volume up as the stock is moving up. So that's supporting it. All in all, I think that this one looks great. I'd just be watching that 76 cent level to see what it does. If we have a bit of a retracement and then we're off again, then yeah, I think this one looks good.

• 33:33Speaker 01

  Awesome. Janine, you want to add something?

• 33:34Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think that was awesome, Pedro. I just thought when you said that if you had a board on the float, you could have made, you know, 200, whatever it was, massive amount of money. And I thought, oh, people will be thinking, oh, don't tell me that. It's a bit late now. But then I thought, if you look at what happens, we say to people, usually that stocks come back from their float price after, you know, in that first 12 months or quite often, which is what happened here. So with some simple rules, after the stock floated, there's a much safer time to buy.

• 34:04Speaker 01

  I was just gonna second that and say, well, if you structured the trade following that IPO, there are plenty of times you could have made three times more 200%.

• 34:12Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah.

• 34:13Speaker 01

  Like a hell of a lot more. When you measure it versus your risk, if you trade it with good structure, risk versus reward. So.

• 34:18Speaker 02

  Yeah, look, we had a guy who was a policeman actually do our trading mentor course and he was able to make money out of that. He used that to make money to pay for the diploma and so on. And I think that, you know, it's a smart thing. I'm not saying he traded stocks like this, but he was very, you know, obviously very risk averse and very calculated with how he did things. So.

• 34:39Speaker 01

  Yeah. Yeah, it's crazy. When you work out risk reward, how much more opportunity is there than what you're seeing on just that simple buying hole type move. But before we move on, let's get your favorites. I know what mine is. I'll be, I'll be pretty simple. It's the last one. What do you guys reckon?

• 34:55Speaker 02

  Look, I actually don't mind STX, but I actually really like, even though this is not a stock that would be for me, but I really like this CVN because it's just, everything seems to be in alignment, but you've just got to wait for the right set of rules or right strategy. And I just think it's, looks interesting.

• 35:14Speaker 01

  Very nice. Pedro, your favorite?

• 35:17Speaker 03

  Yeah, look, I think it'd be easy to kind of go with OMA as well because the trend, you know, following that trend. But I think I also have to go with EXR. I think EXR was looking, you know, quite interesting, the way that it's holding up at that 4 cent level. So I'd definitely be watching that one.

• 35:34Speaker 01

  Beautiful. All right. Well, shortly, we're going to get into our hot stock tip. But first, let's answer your questions. Dennis writes, could you have a look at Cobra CBE for me? Been in it a long while from under 10 cents. I've done really well in the last 12 to 24 months, but not sure whether to take profit. Can it keep going up? All right. Now, this is obviously the, that question that you really should know how to answer before you get into a stock.

• 36:01Speaker 02

  He's gone into the trade naked, basically, sorry to say, but you've gone in there without without any protection whatsoever. So you're swinging in the wind a little bit there, I'd have to say, given that, and the stock is doing the same thing. Stop loving it.

• 36:15Speaker 01

  My mind's not going anywhere else.

• 36:19Speaker 02

  But you can see here, one, two, three, four weeks up, straight up, and there's nothing underneath it. That's the challenge here, really.

• 36:28Speaker 01

  But again, I think the question also comes back to, okay, what is the goal of this? First and foremost, let's go back to the beginning. Are you trading the short term, medium term, long term? When you look at price action, how skilled are you at identifying a pullback versus a rollover? These are all things that, looking at a chart, we can work out. And it's something you should be able to distinguish at today's point in time, what you're looking at, what scenario is it? Because the last thing you want to do is sell in a pullback or hold in a rollover. And this is where the thing is, I mean, we don't have to go into it. It's something that you really need to learn. It's not about getting the answer here. It's, I think the answer is go and get the

• 37:10Speaker 01

  education. But the fact that you've emailed in, thank you very much. I think we can give you something. To me, that looks like it's.

• 37:17Speaker 02

  Well, the trend is beautiful for a start. So I'd give him a tick. You know, he's picked a really good stock. And it's probably a lower risk scenario to be in, you know, to be swinging in the wind a little bit. It's got plenty of upside to that high. So that's probably another good point there. But it could come back, as you say, you know, and it's probably timely that you're contacting us because there's four months up. It may actually come back to try to find support off this line, but there's no evidence at all, like you said, that the stock is turning yet. And it comes down to the context. If it was a short term trade, you'd be looking for an exit. But if it was a more medium term, then, you know, you'd be looking for a better strategy to manage a continuation of that move.

• 37:59Speaker 01

  And I think the biggest thing is actually realizing and having the discussion with yourself and saying, if I'm going to trade well, that means that I'm going to be leaving some off the table at the top. Because trading with confirmation allows you to stay in that trend for longer, not cut your profits short. But it also means that there will be some paper profit that you're going to give up for that opportunity to stay in the long term trend. So I think that's very important. If you want to trade right, you've got to trade to confirmation and do the deal with yourself in the market and say, well, I'm going to have to give up some paper profit. So forget about what you're looking at now in the paper. Let the price tell you when it's time to sell.

• 38:35Speaker 02

  And people say they can't afford to learn, but you can, you know, if you're in the market.

• 38:39Speaker 01

  Oh, mate, you want to let the market teach you the lessons, yeah. They're going to be tough. But anyway, let's move on. Adam's email is next. Currently looking at the uranium trade, but thinking this one might be an ETF play. So wondering if you like the look of URNM with the outlook of big data centers looking towards nuclear energy and the Australian companies even going as far as telling the government they will look elsewhere to build if they are forced to use renewable energy. I think it will be a good time to buy up the recent dips. Pedro, uranium, what do you think?

• 39:13Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think uranium is looking great and this one is looking like it's tracking the price of uranium quite closely. So, and I agree with the whole data center in a theory as well and also China is leading heavily into nuclear. They're trying to be self-reliant. They also obviously weigh in on renewables as well. And I hope that, you know, we can also have a look at it in future. I know that there's been a lot of debate around Australia for for nuclear as well. I don't think Australia will move the price much, to be honest. You're going to need a big country like China or America to really drive that demand. So I wouldn't be looking at the Australian story too much if you're looking at the uranium

• 39:56Speaker 03

  share price. The chart at the end of the day as well will tell you everything that you need to know. And this, like any other resource, it's cyclical. It went for a nice run in 2024, then came back down 2025, went for another run 2026, and now it's come back down. And now it looks like it's moving up. But we're not out of the woods yet. You can see that in this previous run, it was really when it broke out of that momentum that it went for that that that long-term move up. At the moment, we haven't broken out of that momentum yet. So whilst I think that it's looking good, and I'm interested, and I think, you know, stocks like Paladin and other uranium-type stocks look interesting, at

• 40:41Speaker 03

  the moment, the price is not too convincing. Let's have a look at the weekly chart. And on the weekly chart, I'm not sure if you're a student or not. If you're a student, I would point you towards Module Five, when identifying patterns that reverse trends, because this one is looking like it's forming potentially an interesting pattern that may define where it turns to in the near future. So if you're not a student, I just, you know, look at the price action. Obviously, learn how to read a chart. That's the number one thing. Because just going by the story and things like that, while it's good to have a bit of a backdrop, it's not going to tell you, you know, how to trade this ETF. Because at the

• 41:22Speaker 03

  end of the day, all ETFs aren't just for buy and hold. There's going to be some trading involved, especially with these type of cyclical ones. On the weekly chart, you know, I mentioned not breaking that momentum earlier. It has broken a little bit of a tighter momentum here on the weekly. It's pulling back a little bit. You can see it's quite gappy. So, you know, I wouldn't think that it's going to fill all the gaps. It does have a gap up the top here at around $14. I would wait until it's nice and clear and you've got a nice uptrend. You could even get in a little bit earlier using the rules from the course. But all in all, I think it's interesting stories there. We just have to wait for a little bit more confirmation on this one.

• 42:04Speaker 01

  Awesome. All right. Ben is next and writes, I was wondering if you could take a look at Metalium MTM. I'm not in the stock, so I've been watching it to see if it will retest 30 cents with the intention to then buy once it is making a move back up around 40 cents. I'm not a student yet. However, it has bounced off support, the support level in 2025, and has some strong mid to long-term output potential. All right, Ben, well, we can give you some advice on MTM. Not a student yet, so.

• 42:36Speaker 02

  Sounds like he's preparing to be.

• 42:38Speaker 01

  I think so, yes.

• 42:39Speaker 02

  All right. MTM, I'm not going to say the name, Ben. All right, let's have a look at that. First of all, we can see that it's come back to this long-term run on it momentum. And it hasn't actually proven yet whether this is going to hold. So that's the key thing. It's a bit of indecision that's happening around this level. Now, sometimes you can see stocks that just bounce straight out of these lows, or you can see them go sideways. But this was a significant fall. So therefore, it might not come back straight away. So it was an 80% fall. And that just gives you an indication of the sort of volatility that you'll get. People often go into these stocks and they don't think, oh, I'm buying

• 43:22Speaker 02

  it because it can go up quickly. And, you know, it went up 700, 800%. So it's got to be a good stock. But it can quickly come down in the matter of weeks and halve your money. So that's where an absolute understanding of when a stock's likely to turn, what are the signs, how does it unfold, what are the patterns you've got to look for. Now, our advanced students will be looking at this and sizing up whether the fall's finished by using a number of techniques. It doesn't just mean because it's hit that line that it's going to stop. As I said before, there's lots of things going on around this stock that can tell you whether this is the low here, or whether it's actually got further to fall and could head down below 20 cents. And so that's the the challenge right now.

• 44:07Speaker 02

  And you're right in actually saying, well, has it actually tested that low properly? It shows that he's listening, which is fantastic. You'll make a good student, that's all I can say. You can see there that there could be a pullback to this low in the short term. So I think, you know, you're looking at things all in the right way. But wouldn't you rather know than second guess? That's really it. And the knowing comes from learning properly, getting the knowledge and building the skills with people there to guide you, who can really help you accelerate that process rather than, you know, taking years and years to try to get this right.

• 44:41Speaker 01

  Good stuff, Ben. Good stock. And thank you very much for the email. Hopefully, we do see you soon. Now, Shaun is next and writes, CBA has dipped lately, but has started going up. And I noticed lots of gaps around 160 to 170 between Feb and May on the daily chart. What does this mean? I hear you guys say on the show, these gaps get filled. I don't own it, but notice this. Is it a good time to buy? Now, we're not really going to cover CBA in terms of buying and selling because we spoke about it earlier on the show. But Pedro, do you want to talk a little bit about gaps and maybe make him understand a little bit more about what they are and how they're viewed in the markets?

• 45:18Speaker 03

  Yeah, sure. So a gap, I mean, imagine you've got a bid, right? And one person is bidding for $10. And then it goes up. Okay, well, what about $11, $12, $13? Now, suddenly, that bid jumps up to $20, right? And then $21, $22, and so on. So you've skipped, you know, a whole lot of bidders that were willing to, you know, to pay that $14, $15, $16. So there's a certain price that gets skipped. And there's still pent-up demand for bidders wanting to bid for that price. And that's exactly what happens on the chart.

• 45:59Speaker 03

  Because at the end of the day, when you think about the price of stock, it's just you're visualizing the bids, just much like you would see on a house, you know, bidding for a property, you can see the bidding on this stock. So that get those gaps is a result of that price being skipped. And often, and not all the time, often, stocks come back and fill that that vacuum, that demand for the price action in that gap. And I know the gap that you're talking about on CBA up there, when we look at the chart, at around

• 46:37Speaker 03

  this close here of $178. And we've also got a gap down here at the close of $157. What I would do is, because you've also got another little gap down here. And when you look at the history of CBA, if we expand out the weekly chart, because you might not see them on the monthly chart, because obviously it smoothes out all the price action. But going back in the history, we've got another gap there, another gap there, another gap there, another gap there. It doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to fill them. And if it does, when? That's the thing. Because there's no obligation for the stock to go back and fill that gap at any given timeline. So whilst gaps are interesting, they can

• 47:21Speaker 03

  be somewhat backtested, like you would with rules, and just go back and see whether, you know, the stock is a type of gapping-type stock. I find that usually with the more liquid-type stocks, the gaps are filled a little bit better. But that's obviously not the case with Commonwealth Bank. So whilst it's a factor, it's not the all, you know, all the bill.

• 47:44Speaker 01

  Yeah, interesting. All right. Well, let's move on now. Leana's email is next. I entered a short position on Drone Shield at 262 on the 23rd of July 2026 and pulled out some profit at $2. I've had a trailing stop-loss along the way, and it now sits at $2. The stock looks to be at major support at 170, although my next target is $1 if it can break through. Do you see Drone Shield going lower or bouncing off this support?

• 48:11Speaker 02

  Interesting, isn't it?

• 48:13Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think when I looked at this, she might have her dates wrong, because the price is never 260 in July. It's 260 in June. So.

• 48:22Speaker 02

  Okay, just to point that out. That's good. All right. Well, look, I mean, Drone Shield historically has been a stock that people have wanted to trade long, because, I mean, everybody knew this story about this 2,700% off these lows here. And, I mean, you recommended it at some stage, and I can't remember.

• 48:39Speaker 01

  Go back, go back a bit more. Keep going back, keep going. They're around there.

• 48:43Speaker 02

  Yeah, you talked about it in 2024 somewhere. And also down here as well, I think, somewhere there. But so some really good runs to have long. But then we're talking about a lady, which I'm really excited about, who's trading short. So congratulations on looking to make a profit from both directions, which is exciting.

• 49:03Speaker 01

  I don't think we've had an email in before about someone asking about a short position. So I'm loving this.

• 49:08Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is awesome, isn't it? And look, I mean, Drone Shield, you know, had some good opportunities to get into it to trade short. And it looks like you may have picked one, which is fantastic. Is it going to find support here? Well, look, at the moment, there's a low there. It's tried to find support there. It's come back to test that bottom. And that's generally what you're waiting to see, when you're wanting to see if it's going to start moving back up again. We don't know yet. It could continue to run all the way back down to $1. That's the way that I'm looking at it right now.

• 49:38Speaker 01

  Yeah, but it's so interesting, because to me, does that question even matter? Because at the end of the day.

• 49:45Speaker 02

  All that matters is how she managing that risk.

• 49:47Speaker 01

  Right. And you're not trying to predict whether it does or it doesn't. Let the market tell you what it does or it doesn't. And have the skill set to know when it's doing it, to be able to confirm it. That's the key, the trick.

• 49:58Speaker 02

  She sounds fairly switched on. I mean, look, there may have been some people that got stopped out when it reversed, like it did, you know, depending on what the strategy was. But it has come back down again, which is great. All it needs to do is take out that low in August. And then, you know, she'll be quite safe in terms of her position. And then it's just a matter of saying, well, what's the timeframe for the trade? As you said, how are you managing the exit?

• 50:22Speaker 01

  But it's how it takes it out, too. Because if you understand price action, you know, if it just ticks below and something else happens, well, then that may give you a contradicting signal. So that's why, I mean, I speak to so many people that say, do you think it's going to do this? My plain answer, Leana, is. Don't guess, don't guess, have the skill set to understand what it's doing. Your job is to follow the market. Your job is not to guess what comes next. Guessing what comes next often puts you in problems because you're locked into a thesis or a view. Being flexible enough to work with price and change on a dime, that's the real trick and the key. And if you're not sure how to do that, I'm not going to say it again, but we have the answer.

• 51:01Speaker 02

  Good answer, yeah.

• 51:02Speaker 01

  Yeah, anyway, let's move on. Thank you very much, Leanna. Good to see you trading short. We want more of that stuff anyway, or I do anyway. I know Janine might kick me under the table. But Kadham is next and writes, I would like to get your view on whether this is a suitable time to buy Flight Centre. I would also appreciate your view on the short to medium term outlook for Flight Centre and whether the upcoming Christmas holiday travel period could potentially provide a catalyst for the share price. Yeah, potentially, maybe not. Price will tell you. What do you think?

• 51:32Speaker 02

  Okay, looking at Flight Centre, very interesting stock that you've picked here. So I think that it's got a lot of opportunity if you're looking at it at the right time. So you can see here, there's a huge historical support across there, which is interesting. Now, Flight Centre spent most of its time over the long term, trading through this level. So it's around that $20 mark that it seems to really want to be at. So there's a potential for it to come back to that level. The risk right now, and it's high right now because it's really at a crossroad. So you know, this support, this short term support really needs to hold because there's a risk that Flight Centre could come back and test that.

• 52:16Speaker 02

  Now, to the upside, if it starts moving up, if it comes back, turns around and then takes out that high, there's a possibility we could see Flight Centre make its move up into this zone somewhere between $17 and $20. What it does after that, you have to reassess it at the time because of the strength of those levels up there. But you know, it's also this level here around 17, so somewhere between 17 and 20 is an opportunity for Flight Centre if it starts moving in the right direction. The catalyst for that is a really big question, isn't it? It's all about whether it's low enough and that's the challenge right now. It could take out this low in 2020 because it's come down and tested that point there.

• 52:58Speaker 02

  But right now, it looks interesting, the way that it's setting up and trying to pad out the low.

• 53:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, and I guess if the risk reward makes sense at that point in time, when you're ready to pull the trigger, that's the other thing.

• 53:09Speaker 02

  That's a good point.

• 53:10Speaker 01

  To really consider. Thank you very much, Kadham. Now, time for our hot stock tip this week. Pedro, what have you got?

• 53:17Speaker 03

  All right, the hot stock for this week is Lion Town Resources, ticker code LTR. Now, Lion Town released a report today stating that the company is making a move into lithium brines, entering into an agreement to acquire an interest in the Centenario project in Argentina with a pathway to 100% ownership. Importantly, the deal allows Lion Town to increase its ownership progressively as it invests in exploration, giving the company exposure to a new lithium asset without having to commit all of the capital upfront. I think that this sounds like a great deal. Now, let's see how the market has responded and look at the chart for its long term prospects.

• 54:02Speaker 03

  Now, on the monthly chart here on the left, weekly chart on the right, let's expand that out. First, the monthly chart, you can see that Lion Town has gone through a period of expansion from 2019 all the way up to 2023, and it's already gone through that period of contraction all the way down to 2025. So we've got, you know, we've already avoided all of this if you're looking at this stock right now, and it gives you some nice data to back test and to have a look at how the stock performs. And obviously, there's different rules and things that you can use and that patterns that you can look at throughout this history to let you know what could be happening here on the right hand side of the chart because that's what matters.

• 54:45Speaker 03

  So at the moment, we've got a rise of around 500% to that previous high there in 2026, in May 2026, that it's got to. It did have a pullback, but now the question is, are we in this period here where we've seen that sharp, you know, sell off and then we're getting a bit of a sideways action and then moving down? Or are we more, you know, in this period here in 2022 where we see a sell off, but then eventually we see price recover? If, I think that if this project goes well, then we could be more on this side of the chart where we can see that eventual rise. Let's have a look at the weekly chart here.

• 55:30Speaker 03

  I've got today's price action right now, so I'll actually quickly go to the daily chart. And you can see that this news has been pretty well received. Big volume, big buy here. You've got, you know, today's day, Tuesday. It's almost broken out of this sideways consolidation. It would be great if it crosses above that $1.30, maybe the market hasn't woken up yet. But I think that this is a perfect time to be looking at this stock because it's received some good news. Everything is lining up, price pattern time. Obviously, you need to make sure that you've got a nice rule before you enter. But you know, I'm getting pretty excited about it. You can see the volume is coming into it as well.

• 56:14Speaker 03

  Risk to reward, we're looking at, well, we've got about 30% downside if you're looking at this previous trough or even only 12% if you're looking at $1.10 as your stop loss. And to the upside, I mean, we've got 100% to that previous high. Of course, there's other previous resistance levels that it can, it has to get through, you know, like that $1.80. But again, we've got 40% upside to that first resistance level. So I think all in all, and with lithium prices as well supporting this move, we've seen PLS and other type of, you know, lithium stocks, IGO as well, all take off. This one is lagging, so definitely I'd be keeping an eye on this. Watch that $1.30 level and then see how it goes.