Your ASX Super Is More Exposed to the AI Bubble Than You Think

In tonight's Australian Stock Market Show, Filip, Janine and Zoran discuss why your ASX Super is more exposed to the A. I bubble than you think.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  This podcast is brought to you by Wealth Within, a global leader in stock market education. For more information on our courses, head over to wealthwithin.com.au. Please note that the information in this podcast should not be considered personal financial advice. Enjoy.

• 0:19Speaker 01

  The Reserve Bank just warned your super is exposed to a handful of companies at a concentration not seen since the 19th century. Back in June, we said exactly this warning. Most Australians never choose to buy into AI, but their retirement savings are now sitting in it. Now, the RBA is calling this a massive risk. So tonight, we break down how exposed Aussie super is and what you can do to protect yourself. With decades of combined market experience, nationally recognised and accredited stock market education, and analysis featured across Australian major media. I'm Philip Zlotevsky, joined by Wealth Within Senior Analyst Janine Cox and Blueberry Markets Zoran Kresovic, and we are Wealth Within. Good evening.

• 1:02Speaker 02

  Good evening.

• 1:03Speaker 01

  How are we?

• 1:03Speaker 02

  Good, thank you.

• 1:04Speaker 01

  Yes, good to have you back.

• 1:05Speaker 02

  You're looking super fantastic in that tie.

• 1:07Speaker 01

  I'm trying a few new things.

• 1:08Speaker 02

  Been out shopping.

• 1:09Speaker 01

  Got to make myself look fancy for the show. Zoran, how are you?

• 1:12Speaker 03

  Very good, thank you.

• 1:13Speaker 01

  Yep, nice to have you back, mate. And we are going to get into some really important stuff, which is superannuation that affects everyone. Now, yesterday, the RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones spoke at the AFR Super and Wealth Summit in Melbourne. And he described how much of the world's market value now sits in a very small number of stocks. Here's his exact wording. You've basically got to go back to the 19th century to find a similar period in history. He also said earnings expectations for US tech were until recently running at about 45% a year forever. And he flagged that a lot of this AI build out is debt funded, vendor financing, circular financing, structures that are harder to

• 1:55Speaker 01

  see through. That's different to the late 90s, which was mostly equity. But here's the part that matters for your balance. Analysts put super exposure to AI and big tech at between 7 and 12% of a balanced fund, around 12% for the average Australian portfolio. That's an estimate, not an apra figure, but the mechanism is dead simple. Funds track global benchmarks. Those benchmarks are US-heavy, and a handful of US tech names dominate the index. You never opted into this trade. Tracking the index did it for you. Run 7% to 12% across 4.4 trillion, and you're talking somewhere between a quarter and a half or trillion dollars of Australian retirement savings in a narrow group of US technology companies.

• 2:38Speaker 01

  So if a member in a default balance option wanted to cut that exposure tomorrow, what actually happens? They switch options, and they're still tracking a market cap weighted index. Is de-risking even possible inside a standard super menu? Or are they just relocating the concentration? This is a question I want to ask you, Zoran, because, I mean, it's not spoken about at all. So many people don't even know this concentration they have in their super, Aussie super. We're going to break you that down more specifically. But what's your answer to this, mate?

• 3:09Speaker 03

  Well, the answer is pretty much the options menu is the constraint. Most premixed options feed the same global index. I guess the only real exits are cash, or generally different mandate in the timing problem as well. Members act after default, not before.

• 3:26Speaker 01

  That's the thing, right?

• 3:27Speaker 03

  It's everyone kind of, you know, makes a decision after they've actually seen something major occur, but no one is actually kind of doing a leading up to or recognising the opportunity early on, that they are at elevated risk.

• 3:39Speaker 01

  And how many people actually go and check their super balance online? Like, you get your statement, you know, once a quarter, or once half a year, or once a year?

• 3:46Speaker 03

  If so.

• 3:47Speaker 01

  Yeah?

• 3:48Speaker 03

  If so, I mean, I've got family members that I recently asked, one of them actually, what's your super balance and stuff? They didn't even know how to log in or actually understand what's super, you know, what's the super fund they actually invested in, let alone understanding how well are they diversified into different asset classes and what the percentages are.

• 4:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, it's going to blow, you know, a lot of eyes.

• 4:10Speaker 03

  It's a great topic, by the way. Well done.

• 4:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah. Wait till we get into an actual real example of a balanced portfolio. So that will really blow the socks off. Keep watching. But that's the trap right now, because Jones was careful to say that a sector is in, quote, "a pretty reasonable position to withstand some pretty significant stress." So, give us the honest version. Is the risk to the system, or is this a risk to individual members, Janine? Because he's saying, okay, the system's been stress tested, it will be all right. I know you've gone through the GFC. I know you've gone through concentration, you've gone through the dot com bubble.

• 4:43Speaker 02

  They say that every time. And it never is all right. And that's the bottom line. So the system fails, and then they give lots of reasons why afterwards. I remember reading something, and the Queen asked, what happened, you know, with the GFC? Why did, you know, everything unravel as it did? And they didn't really know at first, and it took a long time to actually work that out. So, or for them to come out and tell us the real reason. So that's the situation with the system. But the risk is definitely with the individual.

• 5:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 5:14Speaker 02

  And that's why, as an individual, you have to actually know what's going on with your super. But more importantly, you have to know how to protect it. And I can remember during the GFC, they first brought out this really easy way where people could switch in their super. And people were doing that. But it was, a lot of it was after the fact, as usual, you know, after the market had already melted down, they were scrambling to change their positions, which is just totally the wrong way to do it.

• 5:40Speaker 01

  Well, even now, I mean, I was reading a stat not long ago, where it was about 50 or 60% of US stocks are in corrections of like 30 to 50%.

• 5:49Speaker 03

  Actually, probably more than that. Meat caps, and that's a great point that you raised, because meat caps, I actually had a look at it the other day. If you have a look at the meat caps and small caps in the US, majority of them are actually bear trending. So they're actually in a downtrend. It's those 10 or 15 within the tech sector, in particular Nasdaq, that are actually doing exceptionally well right now. And they're actually kind of lifting the whole index up. But overall, we've got signs that the market is either topping up, or it's already actually starting to correct itself.

• 6:20Speaker 01

  And that's the thing, even in the Aussie market, we have so many stocks trading at 50% discounts, big stocks. And people are asking, well, the market's at all time highs, why is my super balance going backwards?

• 6:29Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 6:30Speaker 01

  That's the real underneath, that the market is crashing. Yeah?

• 6:34Speaker 02

  Yeah, look, I mean, I think that there's always a timing thing with the different sectors and they unfold. We saw that before the GFC. We saw, in that scenario, more defensive stocks toppled first, and the more aggressive growth-related stocks went on, including mining stocks, well up into 2008, beyond the peak of the market. So that, it's sort of like a bit of a domino effect. There are early signs, but then if financials and materials are still going up, there's still money to be made. It's just that you have to be really aware.

• 7:06Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 7:06Speaker 03

  But even during the bearish times, when the market is kind of crashing, you can still find stocks that are actually doing well, and you can still outperform the index locally and globally. But I think going back to this point, and to your question, Phil, or the statement from the RBA Governor, I'd be a little bit concerned to say that it's been stress tested. Because I feel like there is a systemic risk, and then obviously there is an individual risk that you mentioned, Janine, as well. How did you stress test?

• 7:34Speaker 02

  Look, I can answer.

• 7:35Speaker 03

  What is, what is your point of stress testing, when majority of your allocation, 40, 50, 60%, goes towards the six or seven stocks? We've seen last year in April, when we had a tariffs induction from US President Donald Trump, and markets actually melting away 25% or 20% within like a couple of few weeks. Like, what's your, like, do they have an exit strategy on this? Or are they value investors, and they're going to hold on to those funds, actually, regardless of whether they're going up and down, with the indication they eventually will correct itself and come back up, which is an even bigger concern?

• 8:10Speaker 01

  Well, yeah, it took 17 years for our index to get to the 07 high. But I think what the stress test was more to do with the liquidity, can it withstand this thing? And I don't think you can stress test fear and panic. You can test all you want.

• 8:21Speaker 02

  Look, I always, you know how I love conspiracy theories. I always felt that COVID was an example of that stress test, you know, to see what, whether the market would stay melted down or completely capitulate, whether it would recover quickly. And it recovered quickly. But we know that markets don't recover quickly after this point in the cycle. Look at the 87 crash, it happened really fast. But how long did it take to recover? A long time.

• 8:47Speaker 01

  Well, that's a great point. And the thing with COVID, people forget is, we just, we pumped half the amount of money in the money supply, using the money printer at that low to get the thing going back up so quickly. So it wasn't as if nothing happened, and it just recovered because sentiment was all by the deep. No, there was real intervention. And now we have inflation because of that, you know?

• 9:08Speaker 03

  Monetary intervention came into the, like, way, obviously, that's right, came back and injected a whole heap of cash to actually make it bounce back up. If that didn't happen, then I would, I would, I would think otherwise. And I would think that maybe market would have recovered a little bit, but we would have actually had the ABC. So, yeah.

• 9:26Speaker 02

  It makes me wonder which way it's going to go, because in 87, we had that massive fall. And most of the fall happened, you know, a very short space of time. Then attempted a recovery, and it was really flat. And then a pullback again after that. And then if we look back to the 70s, we had something different again. It was like a really steep fall, a massive fast correction, like what we saw out of COVID, but it didn't make it to a new all time high. And then bang, again, down, went, you know, third stroke. So, you know, we know that there are a number of different ways that the market can unfold. It's going to be one of those.

• 10:00Speaker 01

  Yeah. Well, and the beautiful thing is, we'll be able to see it. And that's the power of looking at the things like the charts we're about to show you. But the distinction for tonight really is, the system has been stress tested, apparently. Your concentration hasn't. All right. So let's bring up one of these balanced portfolio super funds on the screen, the breakdown. And Janine, you'll see the asset allocation. This is the thing that really struck out to me. This is a balanced Australian super portfolio that has the majority of the allocation in international shares. That tells you how this concentration has changed over the years. 30% Australian shares sitting at 24%, and then you go through the rest. And then when we look at the international shares, what they're holding, and look at

• 10:40Speaker 01

  the actual top 10 holdings of that international portfolio, you'll see that it is basically predominantly put into the tech sector, Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Taiwan Semiconductor. So we're going to dive into all these stocks, and really show you on the chart what we're seeing about how risk, how much risk there is for people holding these stocks right now. And I know you're going to do a fantastic job of that. But I just wanted to allocate, like...

• 11:08Speaker 02

  So 30% US stocks?

• 11:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, so the majority of, the percentage of people's superannuation balances right now, for this fund anyway, is not in Australian shares, it's in international shares. If you didn't know that, it's important to know.

• 11:21Speaker 02

  Sure, I think you're right. I think people need to actually go and have a look at their super.

• 11:26Speaker 01

  All right, so why don't we dive into some of those stocks in this international exposure? Because if we are concentrated, if the RBA is concerning potentially an AI bubble,

• 11:38Speaker 01

  what do people do, Janine?

• 11:40Speaker 02

  Well, we have to believe the RBA, don't we?

• 11:42Speaker 01

  Of course. I know you're joking there.

• 11:46Speaker 02

  All right then, how about we go and have a look at the first one? Okay, so Nvidia Corp.

• 11:52Speaker 02

  Nvidia Corp, I mean, just look at that beautiful trend. Who would think that this is going to ever end? And I think that's the issue because the, you know, returns have been so strong over time for these tech stocks that people don't want to let it go. But at some point, we have to because otherwise we know what happens on the other side of that. So it's possible that Nvidia could come back to the angle of this trend. And I wouldn't be too concerned about it unless it comes back below the overall angle of that rise. But at the moment, I think it's fine at the moment. That's all I'll say right now.

• 12:30Speaker 01

  You said such an important point about the fact that when the gravy train's going, people tend to not look. But that's the time where I think you should be looking the most when it's going in your direction. Because the second you buy, you're in the trade, the mind should slip, flip to, okay, how do I plan on getting out?

• 12:48Speaker 02

  There's plenty of people who behave like ostriches. And we saw that happen in the GFC, just put their head in the sand and, you know, say, oh, you know, they must know more than me, my super fund must know more than me, therefore I'm going to trust that. But then they really don't understand what the risk is, which is what you're trying to point out.

• 13:06Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 13:07Speaker 03

  To their defense, though, a lot of people don't understand the risk because they're not well-educated enough to actually understand the risk, if that makes sense.

• 13:14Speaker 01

  Yeah, for sure.

• 13:15Speaker 03

  As well. So it's not that people are like...

• 13:18Speaker 02

  Do you mean educated as in finance?

• 13:20Speaker 03

  Correct. So like, education is important, right? Like, because if you don't know how to look for something, how are you gonna know what are the risks associated with it? And a lot of like, younger generations, they haven't gone through the GFC. They've only seen nothing but a bull market. And I actually keep talking to clients at Blueberry all the time about it because, you know, I've got clients that have invested heavily skewed towards the tech sector and investing in five or six stocks. And they just continue adding on on their positions, which is fine. It's been working exceptionally well and it's probably super profitable. But then at some point, like, obviously that's gonna stop and how are you gonna manage it?

• 13:59Speaker 01

  Because the key is keeping it. But so quickly, your thoughts on Nvidia. Are you seeing that everything's rosy on that chart? Or maybe there are some cracks starting to appear?

• 14:09Speaker 03

  I don't see any cracks on the chart. I think actually the chart looks exceptionally well. What I do see the risks with particular sector, tech sector in general, and I've been talking about it for the past few weeks when I've been doing quite a bit of media, is that I feel that we are in the middle of the, or start of the reporting season at the moment. And we've got big, big names actually reporting this week as well, like Google and Meta, et cetera. I think there is a concentrated risk with this particular sector because I feel the valuations are overstretched so much. And whilst the market has actually met the valuations and, you know, expectations

• 14:50Speaker 03

  on returns on investment over the past couple of years with regards to the actual returns, I think they've gone and been multiplied so much that I just don't believe the market can actually sustain that. On top of that, I think we've got a risk associated with borrowing as well. So all these companies are heavily, heavily in that, right? We've got another problem, which is the interest rates as well. We are in the, you know, a hockey cycle globally. So if you have a look at the inflationary numbers, inflationary figures, all central banks are actually raising interest rates. These companies are heavily borrowed enormous amount of cash,

• 15:35Speaker 03

  servicing that that could become a problem at some point in the future. So I don't see one risk, I see multiple risks associated with this.

• 15:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, NextDC was a great example of slowed down the process a second.

• 15:47Speaker 03

  Correct.

• 15:47Speaker 01

  Rerated and slammed 40%.

• 15:49Speaker 03

  And they're all going for the same thing as well. So yes, 30% of exposure on balanced super fund portfolio is actually within international stocks in the US. But they're probably all going in top three stocks, which is Nvidia, Meta and maybe Alphabet. And if that is the case, all three stocks, all three companies are actually fighting for the same market. And everyone is trying to undercut everyone to actually win the market share. It's pretty much like a dot com bubble when it happened in early 2000 as well. I would relate to that a lot.

• 16:20Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, here's the fact, the hyperscalers, like you mentioned, those names, for the first time in history, or for a long time, they're going to actually be running negative cash flow operations.

• 16:29Speaker 03

  There you go.

• 16:29Speaker 01

  All the money's being pumped into financing the data center build. And for every dollar they make, they're going to be spending a dollar fifty. That's not happened for these stocks. So it's very, it's a big bet and a bold bet. So Nvidia looks okay for now. I'm seeing a bit of a slowdown, but I don't want to be too contrarian.

• 16:46Speaker 03

  But you can easily manage this.

• 16:47Speaker 02

  You're right, but look from a more medium-term perspective, there's nothing threatening on that chart right now. It's still following the angle of the trend. Unless it starts to head back here, I wouldn't be too concerned about it.

• 16:58Speaker 01

  All right, what about Google?

• 17:01Speaker 02

  Google, do you want to?

• 17:03Speaker 03

  Yeah, this was a little bit different. I'd probably say there was a little bit more risk associated with this one, to be honest, especially if I look at it on monthly chart because it's gone parabolic. Whenever a particular stock goes parabolic, I always expect to actually have kind of a deeper retracement.

• 17:19Speaker 03

  Looking at technicals, if I can get it right, I think there is quite a bit of risk associated with this at the moment. It's breaking a major low here on weekly chart, which is a low of 314.89. If it continues that way, then I think the next level of support I could probably see is somewhere around 275 to 235 to 275. I think that's kind of the next level of support. And look, if it does come back to around 275, that would be actually quite a deep pullback. The question is, can the stock actually sustain and kind of retrace and basically make a significant low?

• 18:01Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, look, there is a technique in our course that'll give you very good insight into what's going on with Google right now and why the fall may be more significant. Please go and check out our website, our government-accredited Diploma of Share Trading Investment. These two know exactly what I'm talking about. But we'll leave it at that. If you do want to get into an introduction into some of the techniques we do show, this is a great book, How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. It is free, you just have to pay the shipping. It's from Dal Gillam. The link is in the description in this video below. But, yes, Janine?

• 18:34Speaker 02

  Well, that book will show them how to do what Zoran and I were thinking.

• 18:38Speaker 01

  Yes, yes, yes. It'll really help giving you the introduction, especially with certain tools, to know how to manage the trade, which is the most important thing, what you're saying. At some point, this is gonna turn. How do you recognize that? So with Google, Zoran?

• 18:51Speaker 03

  How do you manage it? How do you actively manage it right now whilst you actually got maybe, if you entered early, got significant profits on the table? How do you actually manage it and do not get attempted to sell right now? Because there's a lot of noise about it. So rather than speculating on it, how do you actually sell it? By using your confirmation rules.

• 19:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, it's one of the keys. It's one of the things, you know, doing the mentoring with people that I've, you know, had big chats about. It's, it's okay, it's good to say, I'm gonna buy and I think it's gonna go to there. That's all great, but what happens when you're in the trade and it gets to there? Then you, you know, they think, okay, well, I'll just, you know, wait and whatever happens, happens. But what if what happens is then it wipes out all your profit? And then the conversation is, well, can I actually measure what's my risk reward while I'm in the trade at this point in time or at the next point in time? And you can. And then that helps you then decide how you manage through a trade, not just the initial. There's so many layers to all of this stuff. I think it's touching on what you're saying. But I just want to get your thoughts quickly, Janine, on Google.

• 19:53Speaker 01

  Zoran's saying a bit concerning yours quickly?

• 19:57Speaker 02

  I'm saying it could be a sell sooner than we think.

• 19:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, awesome. You got the next one?

• 20:02Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah, I'm looking forward to the next one. All right, this one is actually, has even gone even steeper. Look at this gradient that we're seeing up here. It's gone well away from the angle of the trend. You know, this is gonna come back and it's gonna come back with a bit of gust. So once the selling starts, it'll be really fierce. I think, I believe it'll take out that low in August 2026. That's what I'm suggesting for Apple Inc. when the fall starts, starts going.

• 20:32Speaker 01

  What's that, about 20%?

• 20:33Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 20:34Speaker 01

  Yep. All right, so we're saying Google, good potential to fall. Nvidia not just yet. Apple, not just yet, but maybe?

• 20:42Speaker 02

  15 to 20% when it does. Look, the telltale sign will be as soon as it, you know, if you want an early warning sign, if this low gets taken out and with a significant pullback, not just a little test of it, then that's when I think it's the start of, yeah, that next move.

• 20:59Speaker 03

  Let's see what we get through the reporting season in terms of the numbers now. I think that's gonna be a good indication.

• 21:04Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's a good point.

• 21:04Speaker 01

  And midterms.

• 21:05Speaker 03

  And midterms that are coming through.

• 21:07Speaker 01

  Yep, all right, next stock?

• 21:09Speaker 03

  Next stock is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.

• 21:17Speaker 03

  Talk about something going parabolic, like in wild, this is probably the one. Look, I'm not gonna say we are at the sell stage, but this bar here, this monthly bar, looks actually quite like a major reversal. I'm seeing a top up here, but I'm not seeing a clear breakout and a close above the prior top, which is a bit of a concern. If it do close anywhere around the lows of, let me just get it right, $388, I think we could be in for some major selling here.

• 21:52Speaker 03

  I can also do a bit of momentum line, which hopefully can provide me, oops, yeah.

• 22:00Speaker 03

  Yeah, we are at the pointy end of the momentum line as well at the moment. Break around those levels are going to 385 would probably indicate to me there's going to be a fair bit of selling coming through.

• 22:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, well, so far it looks a bit hairy right now if you're holding international, which stick around guys because we've got more of those stocks to cover to really fine tune to see how risky the holdings are in your portfolio. But if you want the deeper analysis behind the moves, our YouTube members get the full picture each week, key market index analysis, sector strength, individual stock opportunities and advanced market rotation analysis designed to uncover where momentum could be shifting. Next, here's a quick look. There were clues that the market was failing. Now we've broken through the momentum and we're walking into that 88, 8700 level.

• 22:48Speaker 03

  Uranium stocks had a little bit of a dampening of their rise. We've got a little bit of a reversal happening here.

• 22:56Speaker 01

  No surprise, oil, energy up 2.39%, but look at our sector. It's performing another one of these compressions right now. That's just the taste of our dedicated weekly market rap plus bonus extension content and additional stock opportunities you will not see on our free YouTube shows. It's all available to our YouTube members, but now let's get into our trending topic for the week. Janine, what have you got?

• 23:21Speaker 02

  Last week, we brought to your attention the rise in unemployment across Australia and the dangers the RBA faces in setting interest rates. Now, NAB has announced plans to cut up to 2,500 jobs with 1,500 expected before Christmas and another 1,000 by mid 2027. At least NAB's being upfront. What about other banks? Westpac has announced further redundancies. Declines in lending could be as much as 10 to 20%. The finance sector union estimates more than 10,000 banking jobs have disappeared over the past two years.

• 24:01Speaker 02

  While banks are talking productivity, technology and simplification, investors need to ask whether these cuts are really about AI or whether they reflect something else. Banks are seeing a significant slowdown in lending. So is there a much bigger collapse coming in the sector? NAB CEO Andrew Irvine says the bank wants to become simpler and more efficient with around 300 million earmarked for restructuring. But NAB also points to challenging economic conditions and greater competition. So is AI driving these cuts or is it simply making it easier for banks to prepare for weaker lending growth? Perhaps it's both. Now take a look at this.

• 24:46Speaker 02

  Financial sector employment was growing before the global financial crisis, yet by July 2009, the finance sector union estimated up to 10,000 jobs had disappeared in the downturn. Since then, employment expanded. Look at the jump from 2017. That's extraordinary. What interests me most is whether employment has moved above its longer term growth trajectory, which to a chartist means there's a probability of a substantial correction. You don't need AI to tell you that. The chart indicates to me 50,000 jobs could represent around 9% of the workforce. That's staggering compared with the GFC.

• 25:28Speaker 02

  I'm not suggesting this is the most likely scenario, but with AI transforming banking and lending conditions weakening, could the current cuts be just the beginning? Now consider how US and Australian interest rates have moved. The RBA may not be trying to stay ahead of the Fed, but is it being forced to keep pace? Higher US rates relative to Australians can weaken the dollar and increase imported inflation. That leaves the RBA balancing the risk of keeping rates too high against easing too early, while the banks and borrowers face the consequences. This is interesting. Back in the mid 2000s, housing credit growth was in double digits. In the second half, we've seen single digits.

• 26:13Speaker 02

  So could today's reported application declines of 10 to 20% become much larger? Possibly. And back to NAB, the bank remains profitable and well capitalized. However, its restructuring raises an important question. What does management really expect in 2027? Will the number of cuts be revised? And more importantly, how has this news changed NAB's share price? Let's take a look at NAB's chart.

• 26:42Speaker 02

  Okay, so NAB's gone up.

• 26:45Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, you know, we have seen this so much in the last two years and we've been reporting and talking about this. All the companies that really saw strong price growth was around earnings season when they said we're cutting jobs or we're becoming more efficient. Shareholders are looking at that and that and just going, you know what, better to the bottom line, they're cutting all these extra costs. But we don't know with AI because other companies have tried this approach only to then find out that it's more expensive and a lot less efficient. So, but buyers are buying it.

• 27:17Speaker 02

  Look, I had one thought that could AI potentially keep the run going a bit longer? Because, you know, what did they have up their sleeves previously to try and button down the hatches? They were battening down the hatches after, you know, the proverbial had already hit the fan. Whereas now they're preempting and they're getting in earlier ahead of the curve and AI is helping them do that. So maybe they're going to be a bit more, there's a bit more stability in there for a little bit longer.

• 27:45Speaker 01

  Well, it's definitely adding to efficiency. That's the main thing and markets love that. If you, they can smell or front run the fact that you're going to try to eke out extra profit somehow, then I think that's why it's being bought.

• 27:57Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think so too. Well, I mean, it's down. If you look at the chart again, we can see from the top, NAB got to almost $50, which is fantastic. I thought it would. And we've seen a fall of about 28%. So that's a nice, consistent fall for NAB. We've seen those sorts of falls of that sort of order previously. It's following that trend. So until it breaks that, I'm really not concerned about it. If it takes out that prior high, I think it'll try to come back and challenge that top and then we'll have another look at it later on.

• 28:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, awesome advice. All right, if you want the skills to analyze the stocks, just like you've seen tonight, visit our website, wealththen.com.au. But now time to get back into our topic and look at some more stocks. Zoran, what's the next stock on the list, mate?

• 28:39Speaker 03

  Big one, Microsoft.

• 28:40Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 28:41Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 28:41Speaker 01

  Danger or okay?

• 28:43Speaker 03

  Poor, it could be a danger, but I will say in comparison, some other ones that we've seen previously, this one has actually kind of made the retracement already and climbing back up to an all time high. I think there is a bit of a gap here where we, at some point, obviously will get filled. It might be, it might take better time though. The one thing that I like much better with Microsoft as opposed to actually other ones that we've looked at before is that it's actually going kind of two steps up, one step back. So we've actually seen kind of a heavy rise and heavy retracement, then another heavy rise, heavy retracement, and we've actually seen something similar again. I would like to see a break above an all time high definitely, closing the gap in the

• 29:28Speaker 03

  meantime, and then take out the all time high for this trend to continue. Going on weekly chart, if you don't see that, which in the short interim might not be a problem, as I said, as long as we come back to around 387, we hold, hold ground here. But if you don't break out the all time high, we get heavy selling and we go down and test major support around 350, then it could become a bit of a problem, yes. But at the moment, I don't see a major risk with it. Although if there are signs that it could be weakening over the coming weeks.

• 30:01Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 30:02Speaker 03

  Yeah. So I'd be a little bit more careful and cautious around it.

• 30:05Speaker 01

  Okay, awesome. Janine, next one?

• 30:07Speaker 02

  All right, the next one we've got is Amazon Inc. Now, Amazon actually is not, you know, parabolic like the others. It's in a really nice, steep uptrend, but not as concerning. However, in recent weeks, we've seen a bit of weakness that is just a little bit of a worrying sign, given that last week it actually closed low. You know, just I'll expand that up so you can have a bit of a better look at it. But we can see there, this close right here is threatening that low. Now, if that low gets taken out, the risk is that it's going to come back to here. And I just think at the moment, if you were contemplating looking at this one, I would just say not right now. Because you could get caught in the downdraft if there is some, something coming up with

• 30:51Speaker 02

  it, you know, often the market sniffs these things out and it knows what's coming. We can see the angle of that trend still intact. So if you were medium or long term with it, then, you know, there is some room to move in here. And the concentration of buying and selling happened sort of around that $2.30, $2.40. So it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to see it come back into that sort of zone, I would say at this point.

• 31:16Speaker 01

  And if you're already holding in your super, are you considering maybe?

• 31:20Speaker 02

  If you're in your super, then you wouldn't be too worried right now.

• 31:22Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 31:23Speaker 02

  Because you're more medium to long term in your super and, you know, using Dale's book is a really good way of managing a super fund.

• 31:29Speaker 01

  Because now, I mean, now you do have self-directed options. I think we can say that there are options today where you can take control.

• 31:36Speaker 02

  That's right.

• 31:37Speaker 01

  But that's also risky to take control and not know what you're doing. So, yeah, like Janine said, have, check our book out, check our website out to really take control of your super. And check the testimonials out actually, because we've got so many students managing their own super right now and achieving amazing results. But let's move on to our next stocks, Zoran, what have you got?

• 31:54Speaker 03

  We've got Meta.

• 31:55Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah. How's that looking?

• 31:57Speaker 03

  It's looking like it's topped up in the interim or in the short term. We're seeing quite a bit of retracement. The monthly bar looks actually quite bearish at the moment. So we'll be watching that closely. I can't see kind of a topping pattern at the moment. Probably something in line very similar to Microsoft. So it hasn't taken out the major high at the top. Looks like it's actually kind of retracing. And I think the good base, a good support level would be around the $520, $25 or $28. Weekly is looking probably a lot more bearish than monthly, I would say. So I don't know what the news is.

• 32:36Speaker 03

  We're expecting probably an announcement or reporting season like matter to report. I think it's actually tonight. And if the numbers are weak, then obviously we would expect further weakness. But if not, then hopefully it can actually retrace within this range between $550 to $600.

• 32:56Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 32:57Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 32:57Speaker 01

  All right, so you're seeing short term downside for now, nothing too crazy.

• 33:00Speaker 03

  Probably, yeah.

• 33:01Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 33:01Speaker 02

  I mean, they're calling for the slowdown of AI. What does that really mean? Does that mean the slowdown in spending really? I mean, you know, if you really go back and analyze it, and if that's the case, then that's probably a good thing for these companies, just to pull the brakes in a bit. Not just in terms of what AI can do, but really about their bottom line, because that's what it always is about, isn't it? But if we go and have a look about competition.

• 33:27Speaker 01

  Or that, or they're just saying, listen, subtly, we're telling you the market that we've spent too much.

• 33:33Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 33:34Speaker 01

  So don't beat us up.

• 33:35Speaker 02

  Don't keep expecting more and more.

• 33:37Speaker 01

  Don't beat us up.

• 33:38Speaker 02

  Well, look, I'd have to say from looking at the chart, just looking at that weekly chart, I'm not as concerned right now. I mean, Zoran's, you know, exactly right. If the news comes out and it's a negative, then it will get punished because we are in a market where that's bound to happen. But one of the things that we teach in one of our courses, which I absolutely love, and you've really got to get into it, really, this is so fascinating. And we've talked about stocks and how to trade stocks and make some good money out of them. But there are strategies that you can combine together that we teach you that can be extremely profitable.

• 34:18Speaker 02

  Now, looking at how this is unfolding right now, this could be a top. There's, you know, that's one scenario. The other scenario is that if there's something positive that comes out, or if it isn't as bad as what, you know, people were expecting, somewhere around that 600 could be a real support level for this stock. And if it manages to turn around and resume this run up, it could go gangbusters again.

• 34:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 34:46Speaker 02

  You know, it's just, we're expecting negative. And often when you expect negative, you could get the opposite from these people.

• 34:52Speaker 01

  For sure, yeah, that's a great point.

• 34:54Speaker 02

  So I wouldn't read too much into it just yet, but I'd be mindful of what Zoran's saying and the information that comes out because, you know, if we see a slide underneath these lows here back in April 2026, you know, it's probably not going to be good on the downside.

• 35:09Speaker 01

  Yes, all right. Well, let's take it into our last stocks, Zoran, what have you got?

• 35:13Speaker 03

  Last one is Broadcom. Yeah, this one is actually looking even more bearish, to be honest. So actually, we've looked at quite a few stocks now, and they all look more bearish than bullish. I think out of all the ones that we've looked at, there's one or two that are actually still kind of looking fairly bullish. The rest of them are actually quite bearish, and probably a lot of them confirm the downtrend as well.

• 35:36Speaker 01

  Well, I was going to ask your opinion at the end of this. How do you see this whole, you know, allocation international right now?

• 35:42Speaker 03

  Definitely topping up at the moment and a retracement in play now. Whether it's out of something else, we are yet to determine that.

• 35:49Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 35:49Speaker 03

  Yeah. But let's go back to Broadcom and, yeah, quite bearish. Monthly chart obviously clearly demonstrates lower highs and lower lows. I think the level of support that I'd be looking at is probably $300. It's a nice run number as well. Any sell below that would probably go all the way down to around $250. Very similar scenario, if you have a look at this part here, when the stock actually made an all time high in December 2025. And then I would love to see what is the period in time that we've actually seen kind of retracement and pullback before it actually took off. So it might be something very, very similar. I'm unsure when the Broadcom is actually reporting, whether it's this week or next

• 36:34Speaker 03

  week, but I'd be closely watching at the results and see whether it's actually going to give it another bullish momentum or whether it's actually continue selling off. I think the key consideration for many investors and traders at the moment is $289.96. Drop below that would probably indicate further weakness for the stock and maybe somewhere around $200. There is a bit of a gap here as well, which at some point I'd like to get, I'd like to see get filled, but looking a lot more bearish than bullish, definitely.

• 37:04Speaker 01

  Yeah. Janine, your thoughts as well on the overall picture? There's someone holding, you know, they're super right now in balance. You look at what we've just looked at, what's your advice? Be more bearish, more bullish, okay?

• 37:15Speaker 02

  If they all come back this reporting season, you know, we could be talking 20%, 30%.

• 37:21Speaker 01

  Yep. Yep. And I would also add on top, we've got midterms, we've got Fed announcements, and we've got AI earnings all coming in the space of a couple of weeks. So if anything, it's going to get wild. So moving on shortly, we're going to answer your questions in our members area, so stick around for that. But now time to get into our hot stock tip for the week. Zoran, what have you got, mate?

• 37:41Speaker 03

  Yes, the hot stock tip this week is Star Entertainment Group, which released their quarterly report, and the company may finally be turning a corner. Quarterly revenue rose 8%, while earnings swung from $9 million loss to $12 million profit. Cost reductions are working, but cash continues to decline and regulatory uncertainty remains. Overall, it's encouraging news though, although the company's recovery is far from guaranteed. Let's see what the chart is telling us. So not the best looking chart, but I, you know, for the consideration of this show

• 38:24Speaker 03

  and educational stuff that we actually do and try to help a lot of potential students, traders and existing students, I would like to point out that this stock is obviously being in a turmoil. And this is the risk that I generally tend to see when I talk to traders and investors over the years, is that they actually tend to hold the stock, even though it's probably not doing well, and then kind of go through this turmoil and misery whilst actually other opportunities are out there in the market. So this has been a clear decline all the way from the highs in January 2018. So this stock essentially has been downtrending for just under 10 years, which is astonishing.

• 39:07Speaker 03

  However, fundamentals do seem to change a little bit. Looks like there is a bit of a positive news that's coming through. The revenue is actually finally starting to look positive, and the company might actually start turning around. If I have a look at the chart on its own, I think the lows of 0.83 of a cent or 0.8 of a cent are quite important and a good benchmark here. I think if you can actually take the highs of around 18 and a half cents or 19 and a half, 20 cents and break through that period, then I think in the short interim, we might be looking a bit of an upside on this stock. The first point of kind of resistance that I'd be looking is 40 cents. And then hopefully if we can clear that, then we would be able to go slightly higher

• 39:52Speaker 03

  up towards that $1.52. But again, at the moment, it's looking miserable with a glimpse of positive news and maybe some light at the end of the tunnel. Weekly chart, it looks fairly liquid to be. We can see the volume is actually quite low as well. However, if we do actually break that 20 cents, then hopefully we'll get some not only retail interest, but maybe some institutional as well. And fund managers might actually be attracted a little bit and hopefully push the price up.

• 40:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, all right. Fantastic advice. Now, if you want to know how to evaluate ASX junior mining stocks for maximum reward, join us in our members section. We're breaking it all down next.